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Wilma aims devastating blow at Mexico

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:52 PM GMT on October 20, 2005

Hurricane Wilma continues across the western Caribbean towards Mexico as a extremely dangerous Category 4 hurricane capable of massive destruction. Wilma is currently undergoing a collapse of her inner eyewall, which will cause a short weakening trend that may last the remainder of the day. The inner eyewall of eight miles diameter is collapsing, and a new eyewall of 40 miles diameter is forming. This will reduce Wilma's peak winds to perhaps 135 mph today, at the low end of Category 4 strength. We'll have to wait until the next hurricane hunter mission arrives around 4 pm today to verify if this is the case.

As Wilma's eye reforms at a much larger size, the hurricane should begin to intensify again, and a return to Category 5 strength by Friday afternoon is a possibility. The larger eye will result in a much larger area being exposed to the extreme winds of the eyewall. If Wilma makes landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula, a stretch of coast perhaps 50 miles long will experience extreme damage.


Figure 1. Computer model tracks for Hurricane Wilma.

Where will Wilma go?
There is still a high degree of uncertainty in the forecast for Wilma. NHC has not adjusted the official forecast much the past few days, which is wise when the computer models are having difficulty. A trough of low pressure moving across the central U.S. should turn Wilma northwest today towards Cozumel Island, and then due north by tomorrow. However, once Wilma reaches the vicinity of Cancun and Cozumel, the storm is expected to slow to a crawl or stall for 12 - 48 hours. This will result in the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula receiving a horrific pounding, particularly if the eye comes ashore. This weekend is a very bad weekend to be a tourist in Cancun.

Finally, by Saturday, strong westerly winds will build in behind the trough and carry Wilma rapidly northeastward across South Florida or the waters between Florida and Cuba.
The absolutely critical thing is--where will Wilma stall out? The GFDL model believes Wilma will push inland over the tip of the Yucatan, and spend two days overland, and weaken to a tropical storm. The UKMET model believes Wilma will stall in the Yucatan Channel, and not lose much strength. The other models have modest variations on these two themes. The difference in postions is only 100 miles or so. This is impossible to reliably forecast even 12 hours in advance, given the weak steering currents that are likely to exist Friday. Will will just have to wait and see what happens. Very small changes in storm position will cause huge changes in Wilma's intensity.

A long encounter with the Yucatan Peninsula would cause a serious disruption of the hurricane. While the waters are still warm enough to support intensification once she starts moving through the Gulf of Mexico towards Florida, there will be increasing wind shear associated with the westerly winds driving Wilma that will inhibit intensification. In addition, Wilma will only have a day or so to intensify, as the westerly winds will accelerate her to a forward speed of about 30 mph once she approaches Florida. Wilma's likely intensity once she reaches Florida is tropical storm to Category 3 strength.


Figure 2. Storm surge map for the southwest coast of Florida.

What kind of storm surge might affect Florida?
One can see from the storm surge map above that the southwest coast of Florida is very prone to high storm surges. This is because the Continental Shelf extends about 100 miles offshore, creating a very shallow area for the storm surge waters to build up in. If Wilma does hit the southwest coast of Florida as a Category 3 hurricane, which is the upper end of the intensity I think is likely, a 10 - 16 foot storm surge could flood most of Naples and all of Marco. Given the expected high forward speed of the hurricane at landfall in Florida--25 to 30 mph--regions to the south side of where the eye makes landfall will receive far greater wind damage and storm surge than is typical for a hurricane.

After Florida, then what?
After crossing Florida, Wilma is threat to the northern Bahama Islands. Wilma should pass well offshore North Carolina, but close enough to bring tropical storm force winds to the Outer Banks. Wilma is expected to merge with a large low pressure system as she approaches Maine of Nova Scotia about five days from now, and could bring tropical storm force winds to New England and the Canadian Maritime provinces.

I'll be back this afternoon about 4 pm EDT with an update on the latest, and post a storm surge map for the Keys if I can locate one.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good morning everyone. While you certainly don't want to wish the storm on anyone, I hope that Florida only has to deal with a tropical storm or mild hurricane. Don't forget the lessons learned from Katrina/Rita/Etc... Storm Surge from these monsters doesn't die down as fast as the winds. Take precautions for that. Good luck to all in south Florida.
Still stuck on florida. It gonna hit mexico despite the nhc for the last three days saying its going through the channel. Of course now the say its going to hit mexico because its about right on top of the country almost. Every plot point has ben off. Every so sure it going to hit south florida still though. I say maybe. These turns are coming as nhc preditcts them for the whole season. I will not be surprised if the turn north east comes late just as the turn north is coming late. A spot gets picked and the forcasters get fixated on it. Mexico is the spot that needs to be fixated on right now. After that I say the forcast is sketchy. It is more important to see how this storm interacts with land in mexico, how far inland it goes and how long it takes to turn north before we start talkin about a northeast turn towards florida.
Check out the link below and make sure to check the " Trop Forcast Points" at the top of the page.
Looks like MJH might be right.
Link
This thing is a damn beast
yes it is!
Thank you very much Dr. Masters! :)

Look forward to your 4pm update.......

Was there some report of a huurican hunter aircraft that was almost lost yesterday, was this rumor?
Everyone still calling for a SW Florida landfall?
caneman, you need to keep up
your "come on shear" chant today. lol
Don't be suprised if she stops short of the Peninsula. Hurricanes do not like land, so like many storms have done, she might just skirt the coast.
Wilma has weaken some.....everyone along the SW coast needs to be ready to BOLT!!!!!!!....Im still not sold that she will come thru florida and kick some butt......but you never know.........people need to stay focused on her until shes done......look for her pressure to rise at 11AM and her winds to drop......120MPH-130MPH MAX......
Dr. Masters,

Do you think that the storm surge will go that far inland with the storm moving that fast across FL???
so a naples landfall would mean exit where on the east coast?
rgt, when you look at it using the forcast points, it appears it has started to make a more northern track. this true?
I think she will behave like Ophelia, and then take a similar route to the NE
i dont think she will go into the yucatan very far if at all, that nw then n turn should start occuring in the next6-12 hours...she might go in a litte..but probly just skirt the coast...
Flood most of Naples??? That bites, I guess I should get some sand bags now too. Hopefully, this won't be the case, but I will be prepared. Is everybody pretty much in agreement that the NHC will stick to it's forcast track?
Water Vapor imager shows a track north.
Newbie here, everything I have read for the last few days on this site has been very educational and interesting. I live on the west coast of Florida north of Tampa and I like keeping informed how come I need to refresh my computer to read new posts. Am I doing something wrong or is that how it works....thanks anyone
westcoastfla, you're doing it right. That's how it works. Morning everybody.
subtropic thnx
Thats it NewBe, just sit at your computer with the rest of us and hit Refresh every 2 min or so. I'm just waiting for the North turn to start putting up my shudders. I took off from work today and am asking myself why?
morning sub
Morning Subtropic! early for you? lol
Hello all!
palmbeachgardens, should have taken off tomorrow, then more than likely you'll be off Monday if not longer
then it would be a mini vacation. Not a fun one though.
Hurricane Wilma Advisory Number 21

Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on October 20, 2005
...Hurricane Warning extended southward on the Yucatan...

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning southward to Chetumal. A Hurricane Warning is now in effect from San Felipe to Chetumal on the Yucatan Peninsula...including Cozumel and the nearby islands. A Hurricane Warning is also in effect for Swan Island.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect from west of San Felipe to celestun.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Belize from the border with Mexico southward to Belize City.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the provinces of la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Pinar del Rio...and the Isle of Youth. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect in Cuba for the provinces of Matanzas westward through Pinar del Rio...and for the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Honduras from the Honduras/Nicaragua border westward to Cabo camaron.

All interests in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of extremely dangerous Hurricane Wilma.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

At 10 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Wilma was located near latitude 18.4 north... longitude 85.5 west or about 170 miles... 275 km... south-southeast of Cozumel Mexico.

Wilma is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph ...11 km/hr. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph...230 km/hr...with higher gusts. Wilma is a category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some re-strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 260 miles...415 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 915 mb...27.02 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 7-10 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula.

Wilma is expected to produce 10 to 20 inches of rain through Saturday across portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula...with isolated amounts of 40 inches possible... particulary over higher terrain in western Cuba.

Additional rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches...with isolated amounts of 8 inches...are possible across the Cayman Islands...Swan Island...and portions of Honduras through Friday.

Repeating the 10 am CDT position...18.4 N... 85.5 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...145 mph. Minimum central pressure... 915 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 1 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 4 PM CDT.

Forecaster Franklin


$$



Hey 21
hi 21. Looks like you are still in the clear
for now.
Morning subtropic,

So what do you think she will do???

Are the tracks right or is this storm going to do the unexpected???
Hi all. Newbie here. Anybody got a guess as to what we can expect in Citrus County?
Morning 21! Looks like we are safe for now.
palmbeacher. Very much so. Very early. [rubs eyes, sips more coffee].
Sup westcoastfla! weatherdude! Everybody got their plywood ready?
No gaps has her coming in around Tampa and exiting around Daytona - SHIFTED N
I swear from the latest water vapor images (http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html) looks like she has started to make her turn.
I am awaiting the return of my sister-i-l fm a cruise that left 10/9 to the eastern caribbean: St Vincent, Grenada, St. Lucia, Martinique, St. Thomas. Hope her feathers didn't get ruffled. She won't fly - swears by ships. anxious to hear what she has to say.
sub, I have had 3 cups! Wiggin' out.
I feel like I could put everyones shutters!
Love a good coffee high.lol
Check this out

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2.cgi?time=2005102000&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

courtesy of CybrTeddy on another blog
How much credibility should we be giving the NOGAPS right now? Pretty much has a doomsday scenerio for this storm riding directly up the east coast and slamming into NYC/New England?
JenD
::deploy the Cantore


NOGAPS
Hi all. What a perplexing situation! Was thinking about heading towards Tampa area tommorow morning, but since 'cane has slowed and track uncertain (also suggesting a landfall further south), I think I'll have to postpone my decision. Will just wait and hope for the best with the rest of you.
NOGAPS made shift north to Tampa. Wonder if any of the next models will shift north some as well.
morning taco! I want to see this NW turn. If she gets onshore the Yukatan, that's going to have a serious affect on my decisions. I like the NHC track right now. I don't have anything intelligent to offer that counters what they are saying. Personally, I will only be concerened if she stays offshore of Mexico. Sorry for the slow responses. I am doing 3 things at once here and I can usually barely handle one!
nash,
makes we wonder because the other models followed NOGAPS lead yesterday!!!
JenD
::deploy the Cantore
Orlando

Link
Wilma continues hauling west - in fact, almost due west since before 5 AM this morning... Glad to see Mexico is finally beginning to recognize the warnings need to go up further south. This is great news for FL!
if anyone in palm beach.martin or st lucie counties needs shutters put up or knows someone who needs help email me. my boyfriend is putting together a crew to help
Where can I find the NOGAPS models???
Plambeacher, how is it down your way today...people starting to go nuts?
oh...come one now, is she really gonna stall? That sounds good to me :-)
LOL Sub I do understand, as for myself my job thinks I can do 4or 5 things at a time but what ever... Anyway I just don't know what she will do, they have not been right all year and to me I would think the unexpacted... This year has been one for the record book for sure...
stormy...if she stalls, I think it will be for a very short time...but actually I really do not see her stalling
weatherdude65, people down here were ALREADY nuts!
Before Everyone panics... The Nogaps has been out to lunch the last three runs.... This is the 1st time its even back over the FLA peninsula..U will want to see the 12Z runs before you all make any assumptions..Models are tending to move a little north, however, The movement is almost due west right now... She is going to have to make a 70 degree turn to stay on track with most of the models.. If she does go into the Yucatan Then all bets are off as far as the models go.....
shes slowed down significantly the last 2-3 hours and the NW/N shift is and will be evident the next 6-12 hours...
Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 21

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on October 20, 2005
Wilma continues on its west-northwest heading...295/6...which remains a little to the left of the short term guidance. For this reason...the Hurricane Warning has been extended southward on the Yucatan Peninsula. Raob data in Florida and Texas suggest that ridging in the Gulf is weakening and it is still expected that Wilma will begin to turn to the northwest over the next 12 to 24 hours. Data from the NOAA gulfstream jet are being ingested into the 12z models and we will soon see what impact these data have on the track guidance. The basic synoptic scenario is unchanged. Ridging in the Gulf is expected to continue to weaken slowly over the next couple of days...with Wilma accelerating northeastward late in the forecast period as short-wave energy digs southward around the back side of a large low-pressure system over the northeastern United States. The most significant change to the model guidance is a generally slower recurvature and acceleration. As far as the Florida threat is concerned...the main focus of the threat remains from central Florida southward through the Keys...and it is still too early to narrow that down any further.

Satellite imagery indicates that the inner eyewall continues to weaken...and earlier reconnaissance data show that the hurricane's highest winds already are associated with the outer eyewall. Although some additional weakening may occur this afternoon... re-strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours as the eyewall replacement cycle progresses...and Wilma could regain category five status before it reaches the Yucatan. Wilma is now expected to spend enough time in or near the Yucatan to result in a significantly weaker storm in the Gulf when it approaches Florida.

Forecaster Franklin


forecast positions and Max winds

initial 20/1500z 18.4n 85.5w 125 kt 12hr VT 21/0000z 19.1n 86.2w 130 kt 24hr VT 21/1200z 20.3n 86.9w 140 kt 36hr VT 22/0000z 21.2n 87.0w 130 kt 48hr VT 22/1200z 22.0n 86.2w 120 kt 72hr VT 23/1200z 24.0n 84.0w 105 kt 96hr VT 24/1200z 28.5n 78.5w 70 kt 120hr VT 25/1200z 40.0n 68.0w 60 kt
Punk,
Give the NOGAPS some credibility however,
yesterday it kept the storm OVER Florida pretty much the same area's that BAM's and GFDL are currently saying.
I agree... it's too sharp of a turn it will have to make to smack too far south like the Keys.
JenD
lol sub, weatherdude, the gas stations were crazy yesterday
and this morning. People are freaking out. Furthermore,
Subtropic is right but now its worse!
I like that last part from the NHC...

Wilma is now expected to spend enough time in or near the Yucatan to result in a significantly weaker storm in the Gulf when it approaches Florida.
"UNCLE MAX" Mayfield Will have a press conference at 1130am EST..
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE INCREASED. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME..but Link it surely does look impressive!
this is intersting.....


The most significant change to the model guidance is a generally slower recurvature and acceleration. As far as the Florida threat is concerned...the main focus of the threat remains from central Florida southward through the Keys...and it is still too early to narrow that down any further.
Wilma starting to get that olbonged look...maybe a sign she'll start going more NNW instead of WNW? Guess I gotta wait 3 hours to find out...needless to say, though, poor yucatanians
PUNK *G
I bet Max is going to talk about the NOGAPS shift!!!
I am going to go out to the grocery store now. Make sure I have paper products and ICE.
JenD
Orlando
::deploy the Cantore!!!
stormy, that is crazy!! "its the end of the world as we know it!"lol. Thats what came to mind when I looked at
that. Not funny, but geeezz this is enough.
punk - max going to talk so noon news has its soundbits
Hey again (busy in the office)... Yeah looks like we are safe... Weatherman here said we are in the clear! I hope you guys down there are getting ready.. Maybe she will lose some punch.
All im saying is that the Nogaps is just 1 model with 1 run saying Tampa .... Regaurdless of where it goes if it spends time over the yucatan then it will be a shell of its former self...
if Wilma is like Charley, does that mean FL still has another Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne to deal with? J/K
That would really suck!
Well, as I suspected, the NHC is finally coming to their senses in terms of intensity for Florida and with that, I have horses to tend to. I shall return later. As I mentioned before, unless this thing stays offshore of the Yukatan (not looking too likely at this point), I am not particularly concerned about it anymore. Not where I am anyway. West coast and Keys are another matter entirely.
ITS GOING TO BE ON NBC6 @ 1130am So im forced to watch MARTHA Until then lol
Gimme shear gimme shear gimme shear
don't make the storm come near,
I hate drinking warm beer,
Oh!
Wilma you are a wench,
into your eye I would spit,
Shear is oh so near to my heart,
but let not the flaming start
Cool water is grand,
keeps my feet from burning in the sand,
gimme shear gimme shear gimme shear
(face melting guitar solo)

Chorus:
Oh wilma, oh
to the coast may you go
out to sea,
like a flea,
you go
into the atlantic may you run
'cause SW FLorida is under the gun

(another face melting guitar solo)

fade out on chorus
ya palmbeacher...at least I get to leave tomorrow and not get stuck in traffic with evacuees :-)
Dee- Let's hope not, hell, we might even get a Christmas storm with the way things are going..
LOL caneman, thats really good :-)
Im singing along LA la la
Good morning, y'all. Just looked at the satellite
loop and Wilma is still going west. What does
this mean? Can she possibly make 2 hard right
turns?
going to grab some grub..be back later :-)
I don't think anyone will be surprised that I really like the NOGAPS. It's right in line with my forecast from yesterday for Apalachee Bay, which I'm sticking to.

It'll probably change though. Things always do.
Cane - LMAO!
Hey the only positive I can come up with "IF" it does pull a Charley..at least when we lose power, it will be a whole lot cooler than last time...When charley hit, my son was 2 1/2 months old and it was miserable..We were boiling bottles on the grill for 8 days..UGH..
lol Caneman that was great!
TWO guitar solos in one song!
Awesome, caneman!
Good morning. I'm new here but have enjoyed reading the posts. Today it's the NOGAPS, yesterday obscure LBAR(?) 2 days ago GFDL. Not planning to lower my guard on this just yet. I worry it will be another Charley in terms of track across the state. My roof still damaged from Charley! Good Luck to all west coast folks!
Hmmm... the sat imagery definitely looks like it's starting to turn to the NW/NNW, right about dead on with the NHC track.

Here's a question, if the NHC track is correct, it looks like it just barely clips the Yucatan peninsula (a glancing blow), with maybe no landfall of the eye. Yet SHIPS still has this thing down to barely a CAT 1 by the time it makes FL landfall? Is this because the shear is going to be pretty bad in the gulf?

A related question: if you only have semi-landfall of the eye (say the eye itself is still over water, but the western half of the eyewall is over land), does that really weaken the storm that much? Or does the whole eye have to be over land?
Daytona...I'm in Deltona and I have the same sick feeling as you (Charley)..but than again, I kind of get a sick feeling everytime I see one of these things projected to hit FL..I guess I am still shell shocked from Charley..
"Here's a question, if the NHC track is correct, it looks like it just barely clips the Yucatan peninsula (a glancing blow), with maybe no landfall of the eye. Yet SHIPS still has this thing down to barely a CAT 1 by the time it makes FL landfall? Is this because the shear is going to be pretty bad in the gulf?"

Good question viget...I'd like to know the answer too.
HERES A VIS SAT PIC I DONT SEE A MAJOR TURN TO THE NW ..IF ANYTHING I THINK ITS SLOWING DOWN...PUT THE LAT/LONG LINES ON IT AND U WILL SEE

Link
viget, even if it only grazes the coast, the interaction (friction) will weaken it. Then you have the lower water temps and sheer to deal with. Not looking good for Wilma at this point. Still like the NHC track though.
I'd say if anything viget that could be a NORTH wobble.
JenD
Orlando
::deploy the Cantore!!
SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS HER TO CAT 1 IN 96 HRS AFTER IT HIT FLA NOT BEFORE
anyone know the website to catch max mayfield 11:30 press conference sound bites or video?
Viget..I agree with Cybr..appears to be a North wobble
I don't suppose Dr. Jeff reads all the comments but I live in Punta Gorda Fla(in the center of the Wilma cone) and would sure like to see the storm surge chart for all the land alongside the Peace River off Charlotte Harbor. Does anyone know where he got the chart on Naples/Marco that was posted? Would you believe that our newspaper has never printed something like this for us to use? Thanks.
sitting in the office watching tv and TWC stll has it coming to so. fl
blueskies - The Charlotte County surge map was available yesterday on the WinkTV.com web site (home page).
Palmbeach - Are you staying?
what's max saying
mayfield is on CNN
have not changed track, but Tampa needs to keep an eye out. In other words they don't know where it is going.
T.S. winds felt early Sat. on east coast.
Mayfield is EVERYWHERE. He is coming in on my WRIST WATCH for cripes sake!
NHC needs to hire a public speaker... Poor Max. Turn off that damn beeper before you get on the air! CNN had a great shot of drag queens in the background (Key West?) behind Max - hysterical! Doesn't sound like Max has a lot of confidence in the forecast...
The bummer is Wilma will just be leaving the tip of Mexico or between Mexico & Cuba, on early Sat morning. Today is Thur. We have two full days and nights to go before she makes that turn toward Florida. We will not know exactly what part of South or Central Fla she will hit until then.

And once she makes that turn, things will start moving so fast, anyone not prepared will not have time!

I am not in panic mode, been here too long, done it too many times. I have all my stuff ready, but it is just the waiting and then the implementation of the plan that is exhausting.
The only last minute items I ever have to get are lots of Ice and sometime replenish water/soda, beer/wine!
All the rest I keep in a separate closet in plastic bins ready to take care of us all for at least 7 days w/out electricity.
I really would love this thing to defy us all and just putter out in Mexico and go away!
100. viget
I looked at the IR loop, and I too agree it's a N wobble, but an overall NW track now (maybe a shade to the NNW). Actually, if you overlay the official NHC track, it appears to now be heading for dead on the track.

Also interesting is that the official track on the loop calls for restrengthening to CAT 5, making partial landfall as CAT 5, and then dropping only to a CAT4. It looks like it's the cooler temps of the Gulf and the shear that's really the signficant weakening factor, not the interaction with the Yucatan.

FtLauder-- you're right, I was misreading the graphic above. So many models and squares on top of each other, tough to tell what's what. So then, weak CAT 3/strong CAT 2 at SW FL landfall then?

Also, given the tremendous change in direction when it makes that hard right, doesn't everyone think that the built up storm surge from CAT 5 status will dissipate? Presumably that water has inertia and momentum of its own, and will continue to the NW/NNW as the storm itself makes off to the NE? My point is I don't think we'll see a Rita like scenario, where even where you have a CAT 3 at landfall, you still get a CAT5 surge.
i can't get him anywhere on line
HA! CNN just dumped Max to go to another "better" story (a true yawner - who cares?)...
Gotta love Key west! Fantasy Fest
I can't get any work done at the office today, I am addicted to the posts!!!!! If anyone can give us excerpts on Max's press release on these posts that would be awesome. No tv at the office :) Keeping my fingers crossed I am 30 or so miles north of Tampa
Forgot about Fantasy Fest... Wow, what a big hit on that festival. I suspect that is Key West's biggest money maker during the year, no?
Here's the video link for anyone interested:
Link
thanks otowngirl
Newbie here -- so how reliable is the NOGAPS ? I'm in a nonevac zone in St. Petersburg but if this thing comes up Tampa Bay as a cat 4 I absolutely do NOT want to be in Pinellas County...
Has there ever been a storm that has taken a hard right turn in such a short period of time? If so, what was the effect of that turn on the storm? It would have to effect the storm in some way.
The governor has declared a state of emergency here in Florida.
Anyone in FL trying to find storm surge info, check this link:
http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/index.htm
If your county is in blue, you can pull up a link. Monroe County (Keys) isn't listed, but most know that the Keys will experience storm surge from a storm that's packing enough punch.
Good luck, guys. I'm a FL native, having lived on the east coast, the panhandle, and now the southwest coast, and this one has me incredibly nervous. . .

Link
Just one quick point before I REALLY DO go tend to the horses. Those on here who know me know that I don't make forecasts. Not my thing. I only do that for my own planning purposes. My comments earlier were just me thinking out loud. In know way would I want to tell anyone that I KNOW what to expect or who should be worried (you listening palmbeacher?). Obviously, make your plans based on official information.

After all ..... I could be a nut! MWAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHA!!!!!

** POOF!!! **
loud and clear sub!!!
I think more concern needs to be placed on the Yucatan right now instead of worrying about Florida. Since the models are currently clueless as to where Wilma goes after Cozumel, Playa del Carmen and Cancun are hit, I think the potential for catastrophic destruction there should be the concern.
know = no

** POOF **
BlueSkies - go here for Charlotte Co. storm surge:
http://www.floridadisaster.org/PublicMapping/charlotte_surgezone.pdfLink
wow Indian River Co. schools are closed Tomorrow and
St. Lucie closed Monday. Isn't this a little premature?
Good Morning everybody. Just checking to see if your all still there. Surfing this morning, found an awesome animation of the entire hurricane season 2005. Its huge, but worth the download. Best if you right click and save target as....comes down much faster. Shows all the storms this year all the way to Wilma

Link
Coastie - Are you in PCola?
predicted intensity at FL landfall anyone?
caneman, my local guy just said a cat 1 for now. Could change at 5:00
21 - right off of Airport Blvd.
I gotta get some work done, I have a huge pile on my desk!
Be back to catch up later.
Hi everyone, Im new to this site, but just wanted to share what I have been seeing. I work a a publix supermarkets as a grocery stock clerk, and I have a few years put into it and have seen many hurricane seasons there. This one is by far the first time I have seen the store get wiped out by people this early before the storm hits, I went through over 2 semi trucks packed yesterday, and Im about to leave for work today, lol and to think I took the rest of the week off for a mini vacation, but if I dont work people in my area dont get the supplies they need, So I will be working well into the late nights and early morning the next few days, Good luck to everyone and hope u stay safe.
Katrina Death Toll Rises Significantly


Between Monday and Wednesday, 18 more bodies that had been carried in floodwaters before being brought to rest were discovered in people's yards by returning or visiting homeowners. Since the search, rescue and body recovery teams announced on Oct 5th that the body count was complete, 89 bodies have been found in people's yards in New Orleans. With 18 discovered between 10-17 and 10-19, this does not seem to be slowing down.

The death toll so far

AL...........2
FL..........14
GA...........2
KY...........1
LA.......1,053
MS.........221
OH...........2
TN...........1

Total....1,296


There is no excuse for the body recovery teams to leave 89 people to rot outside in people's yards to be discovered by returning people.

More than 100 people in MS are missing--I have not been able to locate recent estimates of the missing in LA. After a year, the missing in MS will become 'presumed dead' and the death toll will rise quite a bit. LA, under the Napoleonic Code, has a different process for declaring people dead--I have not seen a summary of that process that I understand.

And for all of Wilma's 'weakening', she at 915 mb is still stronger than Katrina was at her LA landfall.
Was that from Channel 5 palmbeacher?
Link

id say looking now its moving wnw at about 305 degrees rather that 295 degrees
Coastie - Cool I live in Cantonment (working in Warrington)

You think we are okay with this one??
BEN I WORK THERE ALSO LOL WE WENT THROUGH 1 TRAILER YESTERDAY
Allen Strum on channel 3 thinks so anyway...
caneman, my local guy just said a cat 1 for now. Could change at 5:00

I hope so!
133. SEFL
"wow Indian River Co. schools are closed Tomorrow and
St. Lucie closed Monday. Isn't this a little pre"mature?"


I think Palm Beach County schools are closed tomorrow.
21 - As of right now I don't think we will be affected other than some higher surf conditions on the beach. There seems to be a few of us from this area that are on the blog.
Schools are closed tomorrow because it was scheduled Teacher Planning Day.

Regarding Monday closures, I haven't heard anything about that yet.
I like the GFS models. Has anyone seen them? They seem to have the most accurate reads on the cold front coming down from the plains.

Subsequently, they throw everything else off track.

Does NOAA not like NOGAPS? I don't see it drawn in the latest models... or perhaps I'm blind.

Yeah Coastie, I think Code1 is from here.. Are you the one that works at the car dealership??
Wilma must have had too much to drink, she's wobbling all over the place. No wonder the models cant decide where she's going.
Palmbeacher - where did you hear that IR County schools are closed tomorrow?

They have taken down so many traffic lights here - from one end of the county to the other....strange driving at night and only one red or green light winking at you through the darkness....
LOL Destiny!
No. I work as an educational consultant. Talk to everyone later. It's lunch time.
What do you expect Wilma is close to Cancun (sic?) she is getting drunk off of the Tequila..

Lick it, Suck it, Slam it (LOL)
What do you expect Wilma is close to Cancun (sic?) she is getting drunk off of the Tequila..

Lick it, Suck it, Slam it (LOL)
Orion - Sounds kinda perverted to me, lol!
Wilma continues on its west-northwest heading...295/6...which
remains a little to the left of the short term guidance. For this
reason...the Hurricane Warning has been extended southward on the
Yucatan Peninsula. Raob data in Florida and Texas suggest that
ridging in the Gulf is weakening and it is still expected that
Wilma will begin to turn to the northwest over the next 12 to 24
hours. Data from the NOAA gulfstream jet are being ingested into
the 12z models and we will soon see what impact these data have on
the track guidance. The basic synoptic scenario is unchanged.
Ridging in the Gulf is expected to continue to weaken slowly over
the next couple of days...with Wilma accelerating northeastward
late in the forecast period as short-wave energy digs southward
around the back side of a large low-pressure system over the
northeastern United States. The most significant change to the
model guidance is a generally slower recurvature and acceleration.
As far as the Florida threat is concerned...the main focus of the
threat remains from central Florida southward through the
Keys...and it is still too early to narrow that down any further.
Satellite imagery indicates that the inner eyewall continues to
weaken...and earlier reconnaissance data show that the hurricane's
highest winds already are associated with the outer eyewall.
Although some additional weakening may occur this afternoon...
re-strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours as the eyewall
replacement cycle progresses...and Wilma could regain category five
status before it reaches the Yucatan. Wilma is now expected to
spend enough time in or near the Yucatan to result in a
significantly weaker storm in the Gulf when it approaches Florida.

Forecaster Franklin

I am a teacher in Palm Beach County, and I am giving a test tomorrow. As of this moment, there is school.....We did move our homecoming game to tonight from Friday, cancelled the parade, and rescheduled the dance to Nov. 19th...(which I think is too early considering the season doesn't end until the 30th.)

The only date I anticipate is with this fascinating woman who I met on the internet. She is gorgeous from a distance, but the discerning eye will see she is empty on the inside. She is currently visiting her birth place in the Caribbean. She promised to come visit me soon here in Florida. But I am not looking forward to her visit. She is going to be a very bad date and create a lot of grief and misery. Let me share with you what little I know about her from the rest of her family. She has a huge ego that spreads out in all directions. She doesnt think much of cheap motels and trailer homes. Her ways are unstable and she likes to wander around staying where she likes. When she enters a room everyone one takes notice. Nobody likes her. She seems distracted and little lost right sometimes. She can be so distracted that she cant even keep appointments, running counter to the clock, so to speak. Part of this behavior is explained by her being given to too much drinking and driving too fast. When she gets fixated she can be fast and furious. She makes you want to hide from her. She gets so drunk with power that her path in life is quite unpredictable. She is so careless where she goes that her path is discernible by its litter. She never uses a trash can. When she arrives she will bang on your door until it opens and comes in uninvited. She is pushy and likely to dump on those around her, unburdening herself at the expense of others. She will mess up your hair, your clothes, your house, your budget and will generally rain on your party. Your needs are not important to her. Her manners have much to be desired. She is not what you call a breath of fresh air. She is very overbearing, likely to rock your boat, shake your house up and ruin your possessions. Though, I do sense she is destined to eventually fall into dissipation, losing all her power, and dying of her insatiable thirst. Many will be relieved when this happens, but waiting for it creates a lot of anxiety and misery. Yet, after all of this bad behavior, amazingly she will be remembered by name and spoken of often as if a part of the family. She has even been a guest on CNN for such outrageous behavior. Her name is Wilma.

Author: Roger Russin
Copyright October 19, 2005
Jensen Beach, FL


Destiny that link was awesome!
21,

I take it you never done the lick it, suck it, slam it..

Okay you need some salt, a lemon or lime and a shot glass with Tequila. Lick your index finger (on the hand that is not your primary hand), pour some salt on it, then grab a wedge of lemon or lime and hold it between the salted index finger and thumb.. then do the following (preferably in under 5 seconds)

Lick the salt
Suck the lemon/lime
Slam the Tequlia shot

You can see the large eye on the microwave typical of an eyewall replacement cycle in progress.
151. KnD
I'm a teacher in Miami-Dade, they always wait till the last minute!
Orion, That is the only way to do shots. Good thing the weekend is getting closer. LOL.
LdyAvalon,

Nice one
Orion, I know what you are talking about, lol... It just looks funny when typed.
Destiny,

Did you get my email here and at your home account?
I love Lemondrops =)~
Hi, i am back, I think it was the
lemondrop talk, it called to me to come back!
21,

OIC, I done it before. Not anyone me and Tequila don't mix.. not to mention my shooter days are over for the most part I prefer to sip my scotch now a days
i am at work and dear hubby is at home for lunch, saw local news (tampa) and saw spaggheti (sp) models showing several models taking a more north track into fla. any links to look at would be appreciated thanks
gov. Jeb is on tv now.
161. code1
21 and others in panhandle. Got an an answer to email from Dr. M, posted reply on Leftyy's blog. Oh happy days!!!!
By what I am hearing, nothing has changed as far as the
track and by the way they are talking, it is not going
to. I was thinking by 5 we would see a big change. Guess
not.
Wow, just got back...a new eye I see...Link(I.R. floater loop 1)
Good afternoon everyone. :-)
1 in 1000 huh? I'll take those odds. LOL.
Code- Where? I dont see it?
It appears Wilma is staying just E of the 85 Link...if that is the case, she may finally be making that northerly turn that is well overdue...
I mean W
yeah code1 where is it?
169. code1
Awesome LdyAvalon, thanks for sharing. Takes some of the edge off. BTW to those in Central-So. FL, hope no one was offended by my use of happy days, just meant for those of us up here. (Any who have watched the past year can surely understand.) Prayers and thoughts to all affected.
code1 can you please show me what you are talking about?
(and no offense taken, if your out of the woods that's great!)
What do you think the likelyhood of a hit to the Charlotte / Sarasota county area? If the storm hits to the south of that area (Fort Myers) then Charlotte / Sarasota will not see much of anything???? I am a little confused....could you please explain?

Thanks!
TFITCH941
172. code1
My post on Leftyy's blog. gbreeze got it.
Though I am a wobble watcher. Wilma has wobbled to the north for the last three frames. Combine that with her slow down and I am betting that her turn has begun, keeping her with in the NHC's track. So a graze of the Yucatan is still a possible scenario, Right?
TFITCH - Everything hinges on the placement of the eye when it makes landfall... The storm surge will be on the right, front side of the eye as it comes ashore. So, if it landfalls directly over Ft Myers, then Charlotte County may briefly see a swell as the storm nears, but it is more likely that Charlotte Harbor will begin to drain as the storm pushes water out. Charlotte County would still endure high winds and rain - but nothing like south Ft Myers and points towards Naples.
Palmbeacher- on Lefty's blog:
Dunno about the ant hills guys. In the panhandle here, and they are becoming more numerous and larger here as wellin the last few days. May just be a fall issue with them. Dr. M stated "the panhandle has a 1 in 1000 chance of being hit at most".
If you look here:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

and click on the Trop Fcst Pts checkbox, you'll see that she is currently going a bit the RIGHT of the short term guidance.

I bet her eye doesn't smack into the Yucatan at all, she looks to be pulling north.

Obviously she's a bit wobbly, but if you look at the clouds all around they seem to be lifting north.

I'm still holding out hope for a more northerly course. ;)
177. code1
palmbeacher, I had emailed him early this morning about wobbles, stalls, westerlies coming in later, etc. asked about our area and reply was at most 1 in 1000 chance of panhandle hit.
I got it code 1 thanks, I thought it was something major
for us in the south. Sorry. But thats great you the
panhandlers
meant for not you. Typo queen!
Is anyone considering the increased forward speed in their intensity predictions? I would think that the increased forward speed would make this a possible low end cat 4 in Florida, assuming Wilma doesn't weaken over the Yucatan.
Looks like Wilma is headed NW at 5MPH now...
Very strong wave action hitting south and southeast coasts of Grand Cayman hard. main Road to West of Island passable only with care and against police advice. Reports of some waterfront properties losing docks etc...and just look how far we are away!!
hey vero, how you holding up?
Hey Palmbeacher -

I am wishing and hoping and praying...but not sure what for. You don't want to wish this on anyone else...but if you wish it away it has to go somewhere....

How are you??

Thanks for the good info for us on the Panhandle... I just hate that it will hit near you guys in the South...
Vero, waiting, and when I am done I'll be
waiting some more. Dean just said moving NW 5 mph
Stay safe caymanbreeze.
Couple comments.
The latest advisory (2.00PM) points Wilma at 18.6N/85.5W
The 11:00 AM advisory pointed Wilma at 18.4N/85.5W
This tells me Wilma is moving due NORTH at 5mph

Also the TWC channel stated watching a blob SE of PR. Could this be APPHA???
Hi, I'm new here- from South Mississippi. We are still trying to recover from Katrina here. The population of our small town has tripled, and there's very few places to shop, and there isn't much to be had for groceries at all. I am wondering if there is still the possibility that Wilma may hit the LA/MS coast. We have a very good hurricane kit, but I am debating on whether to go out and buy even more in case this hits. You know, meats and stuff- which we can keep our freezer going with the genny. I also wonder whether I should fill up all our gas cans, which I really can't afford to do, but will if I have to. I've got about 10 gallons currently. Because it's already a madhouse around here, I don't want to be caught off guard. Everyone here is saying "oh no, there's no way it's coming here, I'm not worried at all", but that's the sort of thinking that caused such huge problems with Katrina aftermath in this area.
Note that 11Am and 2PM, it did not move any further W...she may be on a trend....
Ferret I think we are safe this time (including MS/LA) =)
Uh oh Dee
Accuweather states that development of the wave along 57 west could develop as shear has decreased. This could be our ALPHA Blob.
WANTED:

Hurricane Proof Bunker - willing to pay any price just for the peace of mind...

I am such a Florida girl...but I don't know if I can handle much more of this, especially with a little one to think about.
Prediction:
(1)poor souls on the Yucatan. pray for them.
for Wilma to go thru the Y passage then break up to TS
flip back off western Cuba
(2)if strength left, toward Bahamas,
Keys, S Florida ashore at TS to Cat 2.
about like the models.
(3)Wilma is unpredictable.
in anyones opinion if she starts going north now will the turn be sooner or later? ie: south florida or central florida hit just curious to opinions
palmbeacher, and she slowed...now will she stall? That is what I am hoping for....
Coastie or anyone alse - Have you seen any early investigation models for the blob?
Apart from the idots playing on concrete docks on the front (and in the surf!!) no reason for danger to persons here at this stage (although if this thing 'bounces' off the YP and takes a slightly more southerly track than presently I reckon that our West coast up to North West Point could be in for some more punishment from waves (7 mile beach shrinkage again - some of it was washing up onto the road yesterday and they had the section of the West Bay Road by public beach blocked off this morning so presume it took more last night /early this am - Ivan put the sand back last year..Wilma seems to want to spread it around again!!!)
*track models*
I can't find any INVEST models for the blob. But, I'm still searching.
I know Stormy, AAHHHHHH!!
I just got an email stating that school and normal after school activities will occur tomorrow in PB County....

I just wish I knew if it was going to hit us, how strong it was going to be, and how long I was going to be without power....:)
If you find some please let me know.

Thanks =)
Found this a few day ago 7 been watchin it ~ Maximum potential Huricane Intensity Link ~ Loks like she's sucked up a little of the potential over the last 3 days, but there's plenty of energy still out there. Looks good for Alfa.
206. code1
TO ALL WU BLOGGERS:

I just sent in my $5 to WU. (For all who have already done so, disregard post.) I am sure you agree that we have all been done a great service, especially the last several months, by the WU team. I think the least we can do is ante up the $5. They did not have to set this forum up for us and we have all benefited from the knowledge and fellowship of many. Before posts are written back about affordability....if you have a computer and internet access, you can afford $5. Also, there is at least five more (possibly/probably more with this crazy year) weeks of tropical weather, plus winter coming on for those of you up north. This comes out to $1 week just for the next 5 weeks, not including the past nor future. Tell me where else you can find this value. No, I am not paid by WU, just think it is the right thing for all of us to do. I know it is the best 5 bucks I have spent! It helps WU, which in turn, helps all of us. Sorry for off topic and interruption of Wilma, just felt it needed to be said. ANTE UP EVERYONE!TO ALL WU BLOGGERS:

I just sent in my $5 to WU. (For all who have already done so, disregard post.) I am sure you agree that we have all been done a great service, especially the last several months, by the WU team. I think the least we can do is ante up the $5. They did not have to set this forum up for us and we have all benefited from the knowledge and fellowship of many. Before posts are written back about affordability....if you have a computer and internet access, you can afford $5. Also, there is at least five more (possibly/probably more with this crazy year) weeks of tropical weather, plus winter coming on for those of you up north. This comes out to $1 week just for the next 5 weeks, not including the past nor future. Tell me where else you can find this value. No, I am not paid by WU, just think it is the right thing for all of us to do. I know it is the best 5 bucks I have spent! It helps WU, which in turn, helps all of us. Sorry for off topic and interruption of Wilma, just felt it needed to be said. ANTE UP EVERYONE!
207. dcw
Shes moving northward...good for Yucatan, bad for FL...think it's a wobble?

Link
7 days I wouldn't hold your breath
for any pbc school closings unless its
a cat 4 on our doorstep! (I am exagerrating, but
thats the way it seems!)
waves are to 12ft. Link. Upper right there's a button to loop it. last frame the waves directly under switched to a NNE direction. Looks like she'd tryin to thread the needle, but she might scrap some on the left.
211. dcw
I'm in Central FL, and I'd bet on cancellations monday...given her current insanely large TS wind field, we'll still have those winds even long after she moves off the east coast!
212. code1
Sorry for the double, computer went down for a minute and I hit send again while trying to copy to Leftyy's blog (red cheeks here).
I'm in, code!
it's not wobbling that i can see. the eye (and the entire area of the wole storm) is egg shaped so everytime the longer side swings up, everyone cries out "WOBBLE" and then when it slides back down to the west side everyone screams "IT'S HITTING LAND"

gosh ppl.... be concerned and keep your eye out but man, do you have to say the sky is falling every five minutes?

wait until doc gives an update or something actually DOES change. heck, it isn't even gonna hit cozumel (if it does) until TOMORROW!

anyway, back to work for me. i may be on the sw coast of fla.. but i still have a job and BETTER things to do until i need to do something else
215. code1
windnwaves, sorry for you, don't send $. Not a housewife here, healthcare consultant, and make at least $40K more per year than ex-hubby. Very self sufficient. Like some, you are a user and abuser.
Whoa, a scam? As someone who owns
and operates a website, I can attest to
the fact that it costs money to provide
content, program features, maintain
features, host the site, protect the site,
store all these blogs and comments, etc.
etc. etc. They are also offering benefits
for your membership dues. Bottled water
is a scam, this is commerce. Just my 2 cents.
Plus they seem like nice folks.
code1,

I have, acutally I am starting my second year with wunderground (ie times paying the $5). I would be willing to pay double or triple a year for wunderground. Than the weather channel or Accuweather.

My only gripe (a minor one at that) is no firefox plug in like AccuWeather or a desktop application like weather channel (but then again most of the action is on the blogs)
Bottled water is a scam unless you need
it for hurricane preps, that is!
thanks for your thoughtfulness ric
windnwaves, you seem to enjoy your free info on the web from our govt., well it's not free cause we pay for it with taxes. Anyway there are 2 bills (1 senete other house) that would put an end to all the wonderful info we are seeing here. One is to privitize. The accuweathers would get 1st dibs on showing us what they want for a price, there would be no more NWS, NOAA, etc.. web sites. No recon info. The other is a BAD section in a good bill that would allow congress behind closed doors to change privitazation & stop free flow info from Universities as well. Your right, if this passes we will be all paying more than $5 to play here. Click on my name above to find out more.
True dcw, stormydee. Noticed the 1 pm report from nhc changed from west-northwest to northwest track. So it is changing some north, however down to 5 mph, for stall?.
ok, it has slowed down. Does anyone know when it
will pick up this speed I keep hearing? Is it after
it makes the turn?
Can someone post the latest stats? Thanks! And thanks WU, this blog has been very helpful.
Our school district is more concerned with make up days than people's advance planning here. No big deal, I am sure we won't have school on Monday, oh wait, we were under a tropical storm warning with Rita, and we still had school......

Do you think it will rain tonight?
7 DAYS where do you live?
If this actually is a change in direction to the north, does anyone know if this means an earlier arrival for South Florida?
Well, it was either a 3 hour wobble north OR she is still trecking somewhat west (so NW would fit good)...god bless those souls!
Palmbeacher...I would look for slight acceleration as it
exits the turn... kind of like a good nascar race...give
it another day or so. I couldn't help but chuckle at
our TV weather folks in S. FLgoing on about the GFDL's
run yesterday... Even Brian Norcross was calling for
another Mitch. I am a bit concerned abou the
northerly 'turn' it seems to be taking over the past few
hours. If it scoots thru the channel I may be putting up
shutters this weekend....best of luck
Krug
palmbeacher, it is after the turn. Still the speed is somewhat normal across the gulf, is the speed after crossing florida the one questionable. Currently plots at about 28MPH travel speed, florida to cape cod in one day.
If we remember Ophelia, not even the 24 hr forecasted loops were close to what Ophelia did. The loop at the northeast of daytona never happened. Just slowed down enough to smooth out the curves for the next forecast run.
thanks all for the info.
I gotta go, be back on
later. Good luck everyone.
well, gotta go...try to write in tomorrow before I leave :-)
Goodnight everyone
Ok guys, I am going to ask this again.....need opinions and discussion for the coast of NC, not just Outer Banks, looking at surge in the rivers. Ophelia gave us on the Neuse River, 24inchs in garage....If Wilma just brazes, what is guess for North Carolina coasts??
Have a safe trip Stormy..
RiverLuvr,
I'm not ignoring you; I just cannot help you with theinformation you want. Perhaps Lefty can let you know something. He's from WV so you may want to go to his blog and ask him.
Good Luck.
Gamma
So if the storm is slowing, and going north, I see how that could be the turn, but is the fact that it's going north making it likely it will hit florida north of where it was originally anticipated? (I realize nobody really knows)

this blog is so addictive :)
I just found this site yesterday and have been reading the posts as i get time. Looks like a great place, i love it that everyone seems to know everyone.

My wife has family in Cape Corral FL. What does the outlook seem to be for that area and my Father is in Lakeland. They arent on the coast but were still battered pretty hard last year.

Thanks everyone
good question tpabarb i live 30 miles north of tampa on the gulf would love to know what a northly turn could mean for us
tbar, welcome to our blog. Your family in Cape Corral is really close to the center of the cone for the SW Florida hit (from the last update I saw). I think Cape Corral is around Napels, correct? My neighbors Mom & Sister live in Cape Corral. Sometimes when they are under the gun, they drive west to our neighborhood; hoping the storm calms down coming across I75. The West coast does have more surge than east side does. Their surge goes much further inland also. I wold advise them all to really pay attention and get ready to leave tomorrow if necessary. Gamma
correction I mean they drive "east" not west. I live on the east coast in Broward Ct. Sorry for any confusion.
242. dcw
For EZ Wilma imagery: Link
243. dcw
Recon!

000
URNT12 KNHC 201910Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/1843Z
B. 18 DEG 44 MIN N
85 DEG 35 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2415 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 089 DEG 145 KT
G. 350 DEG 15 NM
H. 918 MB
I. 13 C/ 3050 M
J. 20 C/ 3041 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C 35
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1124A WILMA OB 3
MAX FL WIND 145 KT N QUAD 1840Z
GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION


145kt? Hello again!
Have a safe trip stormydee..

RiverLuvr, should not be a problem for nc river elevations. The entry angle from Ophelia was directly into area. Wilma will literally fly by at greater distance, seems parallel to the coast, the main surge would be along the north, not against the coast.
Cozumel - 46mph sustained already!
246. code1
CNN is talking gas shortages, telling everyone not to panic buy. How funny!! It is not just gas to get out of town. They also tell you to prepare for up to 3 weeks without power. Generators take power=gas. If you don't have the gas to run them......What do they expect people to do? Have had plenty of time to truck in more by now. Can't blame the population!!
so what dos 145kt mean dos what dos that make the winds in mph with 145kt any one let me no
248. dcw
145kt = 170mph. They use a 90% ratio from flight level to ground (or is it 80% at 700mb flight?), so that corresponds to 150mph surface winds.
249. dcw
Or 140 with 80%
250. dcw


Look at that center! Very healthy looking system.
any guesses where she will land in florida?
lets take a poll

sarasota my guess
I think someone on the jet this morning spilled a drink on their equipment.

After getting the jet data this morning, all fo the 12Z models have Wilma tracking straight (i.e. no turns to the left) West by Northwest into the Yucatan peninsula south of Cancun. But my eyes tell me a much different story. By Freezing the last four images off the satillite (both visual and IR) and plotting the center of the storm for each, and then connecting the dots, you get a line that is much more northerly than the models show, very close to the NWS official track. This line clips the Yucatan just north of Cancun. For the models to be right, the storm will need to take a fairly dramatic left turn fairly soon.

So to the experts here, what's going on. Did someone spill a beer on the jet, are the models missing something, or is there likely to be a dramatic left turn?
I agree Mishnook. I too have been plotting the eye locations of the infrared images and have been noticing the straight northerly pattern. I am quite happy in this movement if it holds since I have family in the Playa del Carmen area and will be heading there myself for a "vacation" on the 30th of October.
i have a new blog up i hop evere one like it so take a look
i just signed up...and dont think the post i did went through...i am on isla mujeres, just off coast of Cancun...so...any info that even hints that Wilma will not make landfall here...is ever so appreciated..ha!
cancun radar

looks like a bad day to be in cancun!
I agree - it appears to be moving more north. Could it be just a temp wobble or a trend?
i hav updated my blog with my wilma forecast
Mishnook, It might not be going due north but more like North-northwest for time being. Also check Accuweather home page and click the link to Cancun radar it's up to date.
welcome islawoman, and there are many watching the storm track for every subtle shift - just tune in as you have time, to keep on top of things
Looking very north on satellite. Is there a radar loop?
Latest NHC Discussion:

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU OCT 20 2005

WILMA HAS TURNED NORTHWESTWARD...310/5...BUT THIS IS NOT NECESSARILY
THE BEGINNINGS OF RECURVATURE. A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN THE
WESTERLIES...THE OLD LOW FROM BAJA CALIFORNIA...WILL MOVE PAST THE
LONGITUDE OF THE HURRICANE BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND THE TRACK
MODELS SHOW A SLIGHT BEND BACK TO THE LEFT AS A LITTLE RIDGING
BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. IN FACT...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOW
SUGGESTING THAT IT MAY TAKE THREE SHORT WAVES TO LIFT WILMA OUT OF
THE YUCATAN. THE GFDL DID ANOTHER BIG SHIFT WITH ITS 5-DAY
FORECAST...FROM CANADA AT 6Z TO CUBA AT 12Z. THERE IS LESS SPREAD
IN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THIS TIME...HOWEVER...LENDING A LITTLE
MORE CREDENCE TO A SLOWER TRACK. THE 12Z MODELS ALSO HAD THE
BENEFIT OF DROPWINDSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM JET. THE
NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IS
STILL VERY MUCH FASTER THAN ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE. THIS
IMPLIES THAT THE IMPACT TO FLORIDA COULD WELL BE LATER THAN
INDICATED HERE.

THERE IS VERY LITTLE LEFT OF THE INNER EYEWALL...AND REPORTS FROM A
NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT WILMA IS BEGINNING TO
RESTRENGTHEN. PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 145 KT...AND THE SFMR
INSTRUMENT ONBOARD MEASURED A SURFACE WIND OF 125 KT IN THE NORTH
EYEWALL. BASED ON THESE OBSERVATIONS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 130 KT. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS STRONG AND
WILMA WILL HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STATUS
BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN...AND THE IMPACTS THERE COULD BE
CATASTROPHIC. WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF A MORE EXTENDED INTERACTION
WITH THE YUCATAN INCREASING...SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE
BEFORE WILMA TURNS TOWARD FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...THE LONGER WILMA
LINGERS BEFORE TURNING NORTHEASTWARD...THE MORE HOSTILE THE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
RiverLuvr - no way to guess without knowing the track pretty closely. Worst case with the storm moving just offshore will have it push a bunch of water upriver and then when the eye passes, suck out all that and maybe more. Saw that happen in Elizabeth City (well inland) a few years back when we had the worst flooding downtown I've ever seen and very sudden. Maybe 6 feet of water by some of the stores but it only stayed there less than 2 hours and then was pulled back to the sound and we saw an hour of the lowest water in the Pasquotank River I've ever seen. I dis-remember the hurricane that did the deed but I do remember it wasn't a biggy. Sorry for lack of detail but it was at least 10 years ago and the details are just gone.

Other tracks, offshore or inland, and about they will ever see is whatever comes in the form of rain but they do have the outer banks to act as a breakwater so it's mostly sound water.

I'd guess a big storm in the wrong place would be a major disaster given how low the coastal land is and areas with no barrier islands for protection would get it worse.

You can probably get a reasonable guess from someone on here once the track in the Atlantic and the storm strength are firmed up but not until then.

One note if you are fairly new to the area and live where there is swampy ground is that floods float lots of muck out of the swamps which sorta poisons the fish and high salt content in the rivers kill lots of trees so the aftermath isn't pretty.
if it be come a cat 5 one more time how high could the winds get this time arould and how low will the mb go this time
Latest NHC advisory - big question: will she thread the needle by going through Yucatan Channel?:

BULLETIN
HURRICANE WILMA ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT THU OCT 20 2005

...WILMA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SAN FELIPE TO CHETUMAL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
WEST OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE FROM THE
BORDER WITH MEXICO SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA
HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
220 KM... SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF WILMA WILL BE VERY NEAR THE
COASTLINE OF THE YUCATAN BY MIDDAY TOMORROW. HOWEVER...WILMA HAS A
LARGE CIRCULATION AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL BE FELT WELL BEFORE
THE ARRIVAL OF THE CENTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 150 MPH...240 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND WILMA COULD REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH AS IT
APPROACHES THE YUCATAN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA AIRCRAFT WASS 918
MB...27.11 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL ON
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 40 INCHES POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN IN WESTERN CUBA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH FRIDAY.

REPEATING THE 4 PM CDT POSITION...18.9 N... 85.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...150 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 918 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM CDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
Jeff:

We are inland 20 miles north of Tampa. The weather service is saying to expect tropical storm force winds on Monday. Also, they say there is a "strong cold front" stalled north of us and it is expected to move in on Tuesday. I thought having cold and warm air masses adjacent presented a strong probability of tornadoes in the best of times - putting aside the hurricane's ability to generate them on its own. Is there an increased tornado risk for those of us in the zone north of the projected path? Thanks and good luck to everybody.