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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Will TD 10 rise again?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:38 PM GMT on August 23, 2005

The remains of TD 10 continue to fester over the Bahama Islands, and the clouds have taken on that decidedly messy pattern associated with a tropical depression in the formative stages. An exposed low level circulation center is apparent in both visible satellite imagery and winds from the Quikscat satellite. The circulation was north of eastern Cuba and south of the central Bahama Islands, near 22.5N, 76W at 11am EDT. Deep convection is all east of the low level circulation center, and Quickscat winds as high as 30 knots were measured in this area. Observation stations in the vicinity are sparse, and I have not yet seen any pressure falls in those stations close to the system.

The environment surrounding the system is good but not ideal. Water temperatures are quite warm--about 29C, and closer to 31C near the western Bahamas. However, wind shear levels have been increasing somewhat over the past 12 hours and are about 10 - 15 knots (5 -10 knots would be much better.) A small upper-level low just north of the system may act bring some dry air into the system and hamper any upper-level outflow that tries to develop. Another possible problem is the presence of the large landmass of Cuba to the south, which may disrupt the system's circulation if it tracks more westerly. I expect the storm to continue to torment us by very slowly continuing to organize as it moves towards Florida.


The system appears to be tracking west-northwest at a very slow 5 to 10 mph, and the latest "early guidance" shows the storm moving more northwesterly towards Florida over the next few days. However, steering currents are weak and more westerly motion towards Cuba or the Straights of Florida would not be a surprise. Some of the computer models such as the Canadian model strengthen the system into a hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico later in the week. Some very warm water (32C, or almost 90F) lies off the west coast of Florida that model believes will fuel the storm into a hurricane. The GFS model makes the system a weak tropical storm that moves over Florida by Friday, then keeps the system a weak tropical storm as it recurves past the Carolinas. If the system does become a tropical storm, it is unlikely the upper level winds will allow intensification into a hurricane for at least the next three days. By that time, it's anybody's guess what might happen. One thing is for sure--the remains of TD 10 will be a around for a lot longer, they're going nowhere very fast. I expect I'll still be talking about this system next week!

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to visit the remains of TD 10 at 5pm this afternoon to see if a new tropical depression has formed. If so, it will be interesting to see if they call it TD 10 again, since the NHC discussions have been refering to this system as "possibly the remnants of TD 10".

African Tropical Waves
The large tropical wave 700 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands has gained some deep convection on its east side since yesterday, but has struggled to maintain its convection in the face of some increasing wind shear this morning. The system is also battling some dry air to its norhtwest that is getting entrained into the center. This system could still become a depression in a day or two as it moves west to west-northwest. Global models forecast that this storm will recurve before it threatens any land.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Mary Washington??? I will have to check it out then. Just to let you guys know; and believe me I worked in TV for a few years, and some of the meterologist there were very talented with no degrees..lol..But I have a BS and a MS in meterology from Rutgers University. Again I dont tout this around or anything, and it really doesnt make much difference here, but thats that.
so weather guy did u look at the microwave data or not
I am done with you for the night lefty..have fun..Your buddy Stormtop should be back soon, you can have fun with him..See ya all.
and yes its a shool in fredericksburg,va where i live. i would have been had my degeree but my wife got the job she wanted working in a labratory so i tak classespart time so i can raise me kids. now answer my question. have u looked at the microwave data
lol he won't answer me cuase he didn't and does not have all the data like i said. good night weatherguy
I'd like to end any arguments with the validity of Lefty's comments by going back to the Blog earlier today, just about the time Jeff Masters made his new comments. Lefty suggested the LLC of the developing tropical cyclone to be only about 75 miles South from the actual position that the NHC named at 2:35 PM today. I made my prediction as well, and for my "luck" I was almost correct by 10 miles. I could have just as easily been 100 miles off due to the fact we did not have the tools (aircraft) that the TPC had,
I guess they didnt teach you how to spell there then..lol..Yes i did, now its time for bed..See ya all later.
Formal training is great, and I have much respect for those who take the time to do it. But do not discount the amateurs either, for we bring another perspective, one borne more on experience than computer models.
Thanks for your answers...I'm sorry stormtop wasn't here to participate...lol
voodoo1

i have no formal traing - but i use my bum knee, my bad back, the number of times a criket chirps in 20 seconds and my average is 25% well above most forcasters
WTF are you talking about..all the data...Just give it a rest...Have fun...bye...
lolthan why not comment on what it shows, goto bed cause ur done.

yeah also 79 i didn'rt have any good microwave passes to draw from so i did have a larger error

and i am sorry i am tracking 2 systems, looking at new data and what not and do not have time to check my spelling, and i never once was told spelling has anything to dowith meterology but i might be wrong
Like i said xealot some of the best forecasters I met didnt have a degree. Experience wins out over education alot of the time.
nothing weatherguy goto bed, tomm u wake upto a markedly diff system a betetr looking and orginised system just watch. its what ALL THE DATA shows
voodoo 1 - I have no formal training in meteorology, but I have an MS in Chemistry, degrees in Math and Physics...so I try and put all that to good use when I do my "weather junkie" thing. Mostly it lets me have more fun reading the technical stuff. :-)
lefty, i got a degree also, not in weather and my fat fingers make it hard for me to spell also. I realy enjoy your insight.
Oh I am done..ok...Watch yourself lefty...Keep running that mouth of yours..Yes spelling and grammar is important if you want to get a JOB.
voodoo....that's a very good question. Especially as I do think that most of us come here based on an interest in tropical cyclones, and more importantly, in an interest of protecting our family, ourselves, and our property.
.
.Let me be the first to directly answer your question. I have absolutely no formal meteorological training. This being the case, as a responsible person I refrain from making predictions or forecasts of any sort. Any knowledge that I have comes from 30+ years of living in the tropics and watching. That's worth something, but everyone should know that my comments are not based on any formal meteorological training.
Agreed weatherguy. It's really just two different paths to the same conclusion much of the time.
Xealot, I agree.. In my final synoptic meteorology class last year during the peak of the hurricane season, they had all students, freshman, up through doctorates come into the classroom. They did a vote: Where do you think the storm will hit... It never failed, when you take all perspectives into account, it is much better than any computer model
I guess we have to add meteorology to religion and politics as something not to discuss over dinner, geez!
i don'tneed a job and currently don't have one.my wife makes quite a bit of money and yes i am a stay at home dad. i am getting my degree for me as i want to learn more. i do have a easy life and a great situation but thanks for caring and god bless
Ok lefty i will hold you to it..See ya tomorrow..lmao...
Considering I do have the training, and I am confused about the future path of TD12 and the models are VERY divergent at this point, I would like to take a poll of all persons on this blog, using all experience, or inexperience before I make my forecast for my site......
lefty: I might agree with your opinion regarding the light shear, but still, spelling is rather important. Typos do happen, but too many of them signify someone who is just rushing out an opinion without much thought.
i like that last blog lefty, it shows you are a nice guy after all. There is a heart in there. Good now I can sleep easier tonite.
i belive the tack will be south but similar to the nhc track which follows the gfdl. would not be suprrised if she never actaully makes landfall in florida at alland just skirts the coast.


and to weatherguy all credible orginasations and myself say the same thing. this storm is getting reorginised and is in a low shear enviroment. she will be a ts by morning if not sooner. just can't agree with something i see that is really wrong and takes away from the beauty of how these systems develop cause some people may not look at all the data and see what she is really doing. she is getting healthier and betetr looking every minute
lol thanks weatherguy u know jst get fired up lol

here is a link to the 1100 disccussion on td 12 and it says what i have been saying for the past 2 hours about the system. also no mention of shear

Link
Hurricane79....out of respect for your posts I'll give my inexperienced forecast....for use only in your poll....I stress that. I think that landfall will be in North Miami Beach. Category 1 hurricane.
sounds reasonable cosmic very reasnoable
hurricane79: That's the big wildcard with this system... intensity will depend a great deal on the track, and the track is extremely uncertain. Still I'm pretty much in agreement with the NHC track, although I'm not as confident on the westward turn over florida, my opinion is that the storm will not turn until it is leaving florida. The mid-level ridge is there to think about, certainly, but every storm I've tracked that went across florida this way took a more northward track than the NHC predicted.. so I take this stance based on historical tracks. I figure in 48 hours we'll have a very strong TS or a weak cat 1. 50-50 odds on either outcome.
hey lefty just alittle fun remember 2 days ago y'all were debating on zebra storms and i said watch 10/12 because old
joe b. said so. lol well i see they are stll giving you fits.
bastardi says between 85w to90w possible cat 3. i will admit
the nhc seems confused. old storm top my buddy cat 5 doubt that
you might owe me 2 poboys on that bet. your zebra wave still has potential.
Ok modest wind shear...Ill give you this one then. Also very slow movement will tend to keep system away from higher shear to the west. Earlier today i said steering currents would be very weak, this is what scares me about this storm..Could be very interesting..We shall see.
Any of thes locations is reasonable at this point, since the "spaghetti plots"-> the combinations of all models on one map vary from the Keys, North to South Carolina. I will discount the lower keys and South Carolina. Florida will see this system, no doubt.
i feel ya weatherguy
Ok I will give my prediction before I finally leave..lol...Still going with slow NW movement towards Florida, strong TS or weak CAT1. Then slowing down over Florida and heading North, possibly not even crossing the state into the Gulf. Well there you go my "professional" opinion...lol
Weatherguy-I said Jacksonville several days ago when we were watching 10. I will stick with that, but it maybe a little further south between Orlando and Jacksonville. I know how much models can change in a short time and I still do no think that everyone has a good hold on what this system will do yet.
I do believe, however, that we will know a lot more by the 11 am tomorrow, when we've got a better extrapolated track to compare with and a better idea of the rate of intensification.
i have been stuck on that Northern GFS path all day. I just cant discount that yet, especially if it slows down. i feel it will eventually be pulled North, and if it slows enough it may not make it across Florida.
There seems to be some agreement about a more northward track than the NHC prediction. There might be something to that ;).
weatherguy, agreed. This is on one side of the 50/50 choice I need to make tonight before posting my site. Either this system will nearly stall about 80 miles off the West Florida Coast, or it will catch the ridge over Louisiana, and continue straight W to near Texas. (KEEP IN MIND, STRONGER TROPICAL SYSTEMS WILL NOT USUALLY MOVE WSW)
I see it shooting the Florida Straits, meandering in the central Gulf a day or two and getting pulled North somewhere between New Orleans and Panama City as a Cat. 3 or 4. The warm water in the Gulf really scares me and I am worried that this may be the case.
If the thunderstorms we have had the past few days have anything to do with the strength of that GA/SC front then this thing is not very week.
i want to wait for 2 to 3mre runs of eachmodel wichich by that time we will probly already know but i like to have a model consensus of 4 -6 runs after formation of a system to see which model has a better graspon the system
xealot, the most reliable model, as well as persistence will lend a hand in forecasting this storm in about 10 minutes, when we can look at the 96 hour position in the GFS forecast. I am not just looking at computer models, but the GFS has been right on with this storm....From weakening TD10, to redeveloping it...
What site are you on hurr79?
Flaweather.com , I haven't updated my site since 11AM this morning, I was waiting on the 00Z GFS forecast, not to say I was going to only rely on it....
storm strength has alot more todo with other factors than just frontal stregth, ie upperleve shear, upperlevel juts, depoints vs temps capping wouldlimit storms but a weak cap will let stronger storms fcrm. alot of factors
the storm isn't impressing me at all right now. The blackout period is about to begin and I won't be up for when it comes back....it better look a heck of a lot better than it does now.
its reorginising itsself. it may not look good but if u llok at the way its pulling its storms into the center and shriking, the band west of the cenetr and microwave passes shows it s abetetr system than earlier today and its about to get its selfto a point where she can itensify steadily. once that convection starts to wrapparound, in the next 6-12 hrs the reorginasation will be complete. 10 hours ago the microwave data looked poor but looks alot better tongith showing allthis clearly.
The GFS is wanting to stall the system for almost 24 hrs off the east coast of FL before allowing a W motion to resume.
right now it appears the gfs is the odd man out and probly not the best track
caneforecaster: You're absolutely right that it doesn't look all that impressive, but it does look a lot better than it did when the NHC decided to classify it as a TD, so there's obviously increasing organization happening, and that's the real key.
Canenut, the latest GFS (00Z) does not stall the system. So far, up to 6 hours, which is as far as it goes, until about 10 mintues from now, hit Florida at 66hours near Ft. Lauderdale w/1006mb
are there any satellites that avoid the blackout period? Or do I really have to wait 2:30 hours for it to come back...
Lefty, that is why I called the GFS the tiebreaker. The GFS would change as soo as they inputted new data (The new depression) into the computer. This will eliminate a big outlier of the models
caneforecaster, between the Navy and the TPC you may only see a blackout of 2 hours total.
From as much as i have have seen of the 0Z GFS, it appears that it no longer sends it up the northeast coast as it previously did, but, sends it into the gulf instead. That should pretty much signify that all of the models are coming into decent consensus.
Lefty's wave is trying to beat StormTops dust. Although if either one had been correct about there forcast on that it would either be completely dead by now or a named storm. Go figure.
what I'm interested in is that sharp left hook they all show...who's to say it will occur at that very spot? Though for some reason they all seem to agree on that very spot (just off Ft. Lauderdale/West Palm)
I was just looking at the 850mb vortex which looks like it stops for a while just off Florida between 30 and 54 hrs. It then meanders around S Florida for a while. What are these untrained eyes missing?
apparently all of the models think that the storm will be "grabbed" by the upper level ridging and sent west at that point in time.
The GFS has made a significant shift. It is nearly in agreement with the GFDL model..to 96 hours...but not yet available after. So far, it takes a system near hurricane strength across Florida between Ft. Lauderdale and Sarasota.
here is a link to the navy site, they use alot of diff sat so it usually has lessofa black out if any at all

Link
caneforecaster, funny you say that...This storm simply has to have its center relocated 50 mile North and it would change where it makes landfall. I do notice though that the models are fairly tight through the next 48 hours.
Look at new panel 114 hours..Takes it north again..lol..
yeah thats what i figure, the gfdl looks like the best so far and was right in the middle of most of them models, could see all the modesl shift little bit more south as time goes by
so hurricane79, are you ready to establish or verify that this storm will make it into the gulf? im givin it a 85% chance.
The models will change pretty drastically in the next 36 hours. They almost always do. Especially when you are talking about 3 day plus forcast points. I am no pro, but I have seen it sooo many times that I just can not see it not happening with this storm.
So it looks like it brings it on shore but then moves it north up across Florida. So it has moved alittle west from before.
I'm confused, the GFS 850 vortex for 0z Aug 24 on the NCEP site takes said 850 vortex up the east coast toward NC at 114 hrs, yes or no?
GFs does not have it going into the gulf LSU.
yea, GFS is off its rocker. Or maybe right on it, not entirely sure..
well when you have lots ofmodels doing one thing and one doing something else you have to doubt that lone track. the concensus is a wnw or nw movemeent than a gradula turn west, how far north she gets will determine what impact and stregth she has. i can say 85 percent chance of here reaching the gulf and after that allmodels diverge again and the gfs won't even be any help as the system aint suppose to be there
GFS is almost an outlier at this point... I am making a graphical forecst right now, ready in 5...
would you please send me the link to the gfs that yal are talking about. Thanks
yep looks like it just gets on shore. Then it moves it along Florida east coast and then NNE towards the Carolinas..Interesting..
OK the blackout period has begun...bedtime for me.
Link for newinfl....Link
Newinfl:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_mu.shtml

Thanks weatherguy. trying to learn from the teachers.
Well goodnite all I wanted to wait for 0Z. Still not sure about west movement into gulf. We shall see what tomorrow brings..
The GFS has it off of the GA/Fla Coast at 114 hrs and 126hrs.
don'tknow how u can't expect a tunr intot he gulf while we are never certain but when almost allmodels taker into the gulf u have to assume the gfs is probly not accurate
Canenut, thanks also.
Are these the current models you are looking at link?
Well usually lefty i would go with this assumption. But the GFS has done so well with this system so far that i cant discount it yet. We will see how it initializes the system tomorrow.
Assuming anything about a tropical cyclone can be very silly Lefty. I still think that the models will shift one way or another. They are predicting a landfall three days out and after living on the E coast my whole life I know that the three day points are usually wrong when it comes to landfall especially in slow moving systems.
i beg to differ, all modesl ahve been doing good with this system. and all models are pretty much in agreement thru say 48 hrs. its after that they diverge and that limtis the belief that the gfs is correct and as far as i see the nhc does not belive the gfs either and its forcast is similiar to the other models.
Based on the satellite movement, my previous forecasts, and the computer models, I created my forecast for Katrina... Link
Recon is on the way. Do we think Katrina or still TD12?
I hate that damn west coast guy that is on the WC late night. Arggh
yes she is still a depresion. atleast for the next 6 hrs but we will see
There's no shadow of a doubt, this will cross the peninsula itself. I cannot promise it will not hit Florida twice.
Those were run pretty early today SBD.
Of course you beg to differ..why wouldnt ya..lol..i am just not totally giving up on the GFS yet until I see more model runs. Maybe tomorrow will be different.
Lefty, if you want a heads up about the location and intensity of the tropical system in question.... When you go to the navy site, the info usually hovers over the link, if not, the link may give it away.... (They are always the first to know..military)
79 I do not think anyone is disputing that it will hit Florida. The question is how far north and does it actuall y cross Florida, graze Florida or stall over Florida prior to the more northerly movement.
Good track hurricane. i would go with that one right now.
weatherguy, if you looked at my forecast graphic for this storm at http://flaweather.com/images/katrina.JPG it actually considers the GFS among other models and other imagery.
i stayed up for your forecast hurricane..lol...Now I can finally go to bed..lol..
yeah they named it 12l way befor the nhc stated it was a td so i kinda figure that but thanks for the heads up
The storm will not stall over Florida. In my lifetime, no strong tropical storm.....or stronger system has stalled over the state. The worst case scenario is a system similar to Hurricane Elena. That is of course if it stalls off the West coast of Florida.
Cool I will take a look. You are a great asset here hurricane, very professional. Thanks for the info tonite.
I just realized I don't have to wake up as early as I thought I did....I will stay for the satellite to come back. =)
It is not out of the realm of possibility 79.
has anybody checked the mm5 from fsu???
Thnx, I hope I can help out..
it follows the gfs but i have yet to see the mm5 be reliable
Junkie, not out of the rhelm...
holy schnikes (<--that's tailored to Jeff14's preferences, again)...has anybody looked at the NOGAPS?

It's absolutely insane.
yeah - Halon - the mmfsu has it playing with Jacksonville briefly before moving up along the GA/SC coast.
Can I get the link where you are getting the mm5
the nogaps follows the nhc forcast track. looks reasonable
Lefty, Its agrravating how the MM5 takes so darned long to post to the public ( I realize that it curved it earlier up the E. Coast... I wish that Dr. Krishnamurti would post his models earlier so we don't ignore tham before they are released...
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Link


thats the link to my models and the mm5
umm, which NHC site are you looking at?

The new NOGAPS takes it WSW for quite a while, a ways into the Gulf....
well on my site if u scroll down their is a link directly to his models and u can see them as they come out and not wait for the post. the ftp server at that site sucks so it takes forever fopr any of the models to post but the mm5 is always the latest
The nogaps is too quick. "Katrina" will not be at 85W by Friday night. The system is moving too slowly
yeah the new NOGAPS isn't on there.

It's here Link
heres a linkl to the latest nogaps i have 23.1200z


Link
lefty, if you are referring to DR> K's site email me the link hurricane13@flaweather.com
mail sent
Hey guys - when do you suppose we'll see the next vortex message? I know they're on the way out there...so will we see one before the 2 am intermediate advisory, or before the 5 am full advisory??
lefty and/or anyone else

if you could only use 3 models - which ones would they be?
Question, I am not sure about the center location (serious) of Katrina "TD12". It appears to be 23.6 76.1W.
Zeen, they are at 25.5/79.7 10 minutes ago, figure new message AOA 2am.
don;t thinnk you could pick thre but i would say the nogaps, the gfs and the gfdl, but i would use the bamm, and the ships. thats the problem each models doea something very good that other models don't. some are good for storm formation so are good for intesity. dunno really man its kinda hard lol
thats about where i figure she was based on microwave imagery but that was hours ago. wating for the next passes befor i mention a possible location
has anyone seen a valid ukmet lately? I am still in the learning stages of all this... and your particular thoughts on that model in general?
I still say that the model will change drasiticaly in the next 12 to 24. Three days ago the GFS 1200z run showed this systme beign about where it is now.
whiteabit, they vary for each storm unfortunately.. for this one (TD12, Katrina) they are GFDL (1st), BAMM (2nd), GFS(3rd). The FSU superensemble has been fairly close to the GFS.
Thanks, canenut. I get a lot out of reading those. Well, 79, your question about the center of Katrina/TD12 should have a real good answer in less than an hour. It comes at a good time, since we can't estimate anything while there is a satellite blackout anyway. BTW - not to throw a curve into the discussions, but I haven't heard anyone mention the mega-high SST's close to the florida coast lately. If this storm is moving as slowly as we think it is, it will have plenty of time to frolic in the "rocket fuel" as our local weatherdude likes to call it. Without strong steering currents to push it around, I see a possibility of strengthening further than anticipated as long as the shear environment remains in the <5 to 10 kt. range and it doesn't entrain any dry air.... Comments anyone???
I can not deal with any more Dave Schwartz. What a Putz.
just a quick note on the east atlantic wave and then i am going to go make some food so i will be gone for like 15 mins

the convection is trying to wrap around from the north as well as a flare up right at thew cenetr. the flare up at the cenetr is small and might fizzle out but this could be the beginning of the formation ihave been wating for.

man earliest 11th named storm yesterday, should have earliest 12 by tomm and than the earliest 13 named storm by thursday
The center of TD12 had been stalled over Georgetown for the last few hours. The last report about 30 minutes ago had the wind switched to the wnw(only 4 mph) with a pressure of 1007 mb. The center's inability to move west or northwest for the past several hours suggests the blob of convection just to the east has been attempting to pull the center under it. With the light wnw wind in Georgetown now the center should be near the sw edge of the latest convective blob, probably with a pressure around 1006 mb as of this post.
Hey StormJunkie - go read his bio. Nuff said! (movie section...lmao!!)
well that sea temps is the reason we all asume she might be cat 1 strength by time she hits south florida, alright timeto eat be back in 15
sorry for the typo, stormjunkie, I agree on the GFS swapping their forecasts for the past 3 days. The GFS however, was set based upon the current convection as well... The GFS would initialize a deeper system tonight. The problem with the GFS is the ridge to the North. Much like last year, if you add about a 1/8 inch of pressure to the ridge, then all storms move further West,
I could see that Zeen, but I am no expert. I think this would lead to a more northerly coarse like suggested by the GFS. I state this only based on the upredictability of these storms and the fact that I feel like 10/12/Katrina and unlikely but maybe Lee still has another loop to throw out to the insignificant Humans.
Everyone is very quick to discount the front that is over Ga except for a few of the GFS models.
Too late! Have to put 12 out of head and go to sleep. It is going nowhere fast. We will have a better idea of where it is headed by tomorrow afternoon. See everyone tomorrow.
G'nite SJunkie...no bad dreams with our Mr. Schwartz forecasting now.... :-)
Well, Georgetown is back to calm wind with 1008 mb, so the recon probably won't find it much different than that.
We are looking at Tropical Storm Katrina. The upper low that was drawing dry air into the system is moving away more quickly than forecast. Katrina will continue for the next 48 hours to the NW.
The 5 day forcast on Wunderground show the confidence in track. Day 5 draw a triangle from the tip of the yucatan to New Orleans to Savanah. Boy that is great. A two year old could do that with crayons.
Just checked out the latest UKMET...shows a Ft. Lauderdale landfall from what I can tell.

Takes it NW across the Bahamas, and of course, a sharp left hook at the coast. What's interesting is that it moves it out around Naples or so, about due west across the southern Peninsula.
Maybe you can dream of OZ like Schwatz does...
Stormjunkie, you should wake up to only a light change in location, not forecast
and the NOGAPS shows a New Orleans hit... :-/
I'm figuring I will get a boatload of rain out of this puppy, so I'm getting a few groceries in tomorrow. I don't expect to lose power - just the ability to drive on roads that flood badly around here (Cape Coral). Maybe a trip to the library too...at least it isn't a Charley! :-)
oh, you live in Cape Coral zeenster? It seems like EVERYBODY lives there now. My grandparents and uncle live there....(were there for Charlie too!)
are the bamm and bamd models aways left of center?
yeah pretty much wabit.

and the new GFDL is, suffice it to say, a bit crazy. Link
How'd they fare, caneforecaster? A tornado ripped the roof off the twin to my condo across the pool from mine and threw it across the street! We spent 8 days in a shelter waiting for power to return. Only some roof damage for us; other building red-tagged and rebuilt.
I live in North-East Fl. and to be honest I dont have a clue what this thing is going to do.... I work within the realm of Public Safety, and wherever it goes is probably going to spell problems. Anybody care to give odds on my neck of the woods being struck by this thing?
A tree fell on their (starts w/ an L and encloses a pool, no idea how to spell it lol) so they had to get that fixed. A couple trees down around the property....all in all they fared well!
Halon - I "smell" this thing coming my way (southwest florida). Unless things change and it finds a current to steer it, I suspect it will nudge westward and rain all over my parade here. :-) Still - keep posted, since these things often have a mind of their own when weak steering currents are involved!
Caneforecaster - you mean "lanai"? Sort of a cross between a pool cage and a porch? Yeah, lots of people lost those around here. Some guy in the next town over was killed by a tree during the storm when he just HAD to have a smoke and stepped outside...fell right on him. Guess losing a van isn't so bad. Glad to hear they are OK.
haha yes, that's the word. And that's kind of tragic what happened to that guy....hmm, smoking is bad. ; )
If it weren't so terribly tragic, I'd say what happened to him was a drag.... Okay, I know that was bad but it's late and I'm getting punchy. Back to our buddy TD 12/Katrina...

Hey H79 - you still here? What made you suddenly declare TD 12 as TS Katrina? Something you saw in the water vapor imagery?
Zeenster, The Satellite Imagery to the least would make this system Katrina. due to the low level circulation and the SSTemps
hahahaha, I cracked up at that one. Maybe not for its pure comedic value, but perhaps for your courage to say it. =)
steve gregory has some nice pics up on his blog good maps
No vortex message yet, so NHC is just keeping it as TD 12 for the intermediate advisory. I'm sure they'll upgrade it to Katrina at 5 am, though unless something odd happens with the convection we've been seeing.
not trying to be mean or sarcastic but I honestly want to know what is it with you guys. one or two of ya'll want to be the one to upgrade it to TS Katrina and the NHC still has it as a TD what is it a mad race? just curious
NHC likes to have confirmation that the criteria for the tropical storm designation have been met. If it's only an intermediate advisory and there's a hurricane hunter enroute (actually in the storm taking measurements), there's really no reason to rush things and make the call unless it would affect emergency planning operations. By 5 am they'll have hard data to make the call with some amount of confidence. They just like to be a little conservative when they "officially" upgrade categories, that's all. Just remember - the storm itself decides when to make the change...not us lowly humans! It's just that some humans like to be the first to say they saw it first. :-)
URNT12 KNHC 240609
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/05:49:00Z
B. 23 deg 47 min N
076 deg 11 min W
C. 925 mb 748 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 070 deg 020 kt
G. 308 deg 071 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 21 C/ 772 m
J. 22 C/ 773 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 9
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 20 KT N QUAD 05:25:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
BANDING E TO S ON RADAR

Recon is in folks....doesn't read like a TS to me. I think it has a little more organizing to do yet. Max. flight level winds of 20 kt. do not support tropical storm strength yet, but it's developing banding features on radar. Pressure not falling significantly yet, and temps. inside and outside the core not too different from one another. Comments???Link
The IR will renew in
about 20 minutes
this blackout period has been wretched. I'll be really disappointed if it still looks like it did before.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Have a look....
yeah I saw it. Extremely unimpressive.

This thing isn't strengthening in a hurry by any means.
She's got that classic comma shape, banding features becoming evident, nice looking outflow starting to show. Funny how the recon report doesn't seem to jive very well with the satellite pix. Well, they'll be flying around in there for a while, so maybe the next vortex before 5 will be more interesting...
When do we finally get the floater IR back? That's the one I really want to see. It's still showing a 3:45Z image as the last one. Geez the waiting is a pain...
maybe she will start to spin up here soon...I was really hoping for something explosive over these waters, but it doesn't seem to be occurring.
just wait a few more mins...usually around 50 past it comes out, well 50 and 20 past.
Those crazy Canadians!


Link
shadow is over
Yeah - I like how they manage to strengthen the thing over land the entire time! I know, I know - models aren't perfect. It just does things that are plain silly, is all. :-P
lol.

Alright, bedtime now. Hopefully tomorrow will bring some decent strengthening...
Okay hurricane79 - but my goes floater IR still only gives me 03:45Z as its last frame even when I refresh. Here's a link to where I'm going - is there a better site? Link
i believe if u read my earlier posts i commented it was going to take 12-24 hrs for the re-orginisation to occur. at that time a steady itensification would be possible. she continues to look better orginised but u guys tend to ignore the little deatils that some people supply. by about 11am tomm she will probly be close to ts stregnth or a ts, though it could take some more time. she was poorly orginised when she was classified and some of u guys assume she was as orgibised as jose was. in another 12 hrs she will be at the level jose was and as orginised when jose forst became a ts. patience, after reorginsation there is a lull for a few hours as u see happening. also mentioned her proximity to land with such a small circulation it would take longer. that is what isee happening and scroll up and see what i said would happen 6 hrs ago. thank you
Welcome back lefty....by any chance, are you trying to type real fast? It is sometimes hard to read your posts with the typos, and I suspect that sometimes it has less to do with the spelling than with how fast you are trying to get your thoughts onto the screen (and maybe your fingers just aren't keeping up). :-) You have some interesting and valuable ideas tucked away in there, and I'd hate for folks to miss them!
part of the problem is i am typing in the dark lol, i have fat fingers lol, and my keyboard is wireless so sometimes it doesn't register the keystrokes, but yes i was rushing as i am also playing xbox to wait for the black out to end. i just beat some guy on madden with a last second td pass he was so mad. i had the skins he had the colts and he could only muster 14 points lol
BTW - I am guilty of the occasional "finger spaz" myself, LOL!!! Sometimes we all get excited around here when things start to heat up. :-)
lol finger spaz
yep, i got 10 windows up with a bunch of info.i dont miss much. if my second comp was working and i haven't had time to reformat her cause i am lasy i would have more windows up. when u run enough jave applications it will drain ur ram so i really can'tgo over 10 on one comp
well i could ne she will run slow and i am impatient enough
Hello Katrina!, I'll create a forecast shortly, similar to my previous..
Ahh...multitasking. I resemble that, although I'm not gaming at the moment. I'm knitting a baby sweater for my best friend's new arrival - try that and typing at the same time! Makes for some occasionally colorful language. Good thing my 13 year old is asleep or he'd be on my case, since I don't usually cuss around him.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-bd-loop.html
Sorry, I do not normally try to pre-empt the NHC, however, this system is now Katrina, by satellite imagery
yeah but i am done playing now. i got microwave data should be comming, gotta check all the ir loops and other sat imgs lol gotta love life after the black out
Link

Shortwave IR loop
lol not so quick, sat img is one thing and she looks only like a strong td, i want to see the microwave imagery as the last sat missed the storm. strongest flightleve winds were in the 25-30kt range so you really have no basis beyond a better sat img to upgrade her
There is still a lot of dry air to the West of Katrina, bewtween FL, and the system. This will bring down the PoP's over Central Florida to < 30 % today ( Wednesday)
I would like to see some concrete evidence as well, however, I have seen satellite signatures enough for the past 20 years to distinguish between a TD and this one. This system has surpassed the threshold
lol ok man if u say so. all i can sate is the facts and recond data even without taking off the winds at flight levelonly support a td.now she is better organised but it takes time for the pressures todrop and those winds to increase. the pressure is still the same so that alone will show she is not at ts yet, she will be in the next 6-12 hrs so this disscussion is almost pointless but there is no evedince to support ur classification at the moment
She has jumped to 24N 76W as her LLC
If you zoom in on the last frame in this water vapor loop, you will see a nasty little pocket of dry air near the LLC. That might just be what is bothering our TD at the moment. If that little pocket were to break up, the outflow boundary looks like it can push the rest of the dry air far enough out to keep it away from the center... Link
will wait for the microwave data to determine the cnter but yhats pretty much where the recon flight deternined the center to be
The amazing thing about systems at this stage is their ability to reform underneath the area of lowest pressure...i.e, the current convection developed at 24N 76W. There is a slight chance that I may be correct on this one..
while the dry air might be limiting the convection on the western side the major problem is that this is classic formation. after re-orgnising there is always a lull and sometimes a drop in itensity, same concept of a eye wall replacement cycle. she will be itensifying after the lul steadily until she makes land fall as jose did. and while there is dry air, its nowhere near as dry as some of the air further away so its not a mjor hinderance. i tried to tell yall this is what was going to happen. u can already see the build back of deepconvection in the cdo. this is just how these storms operate
ur center location is pretty much the center location given in the vortex message by the recon flight
Lefty, I have no real doubts that this syetm will be near hurricane status Katrina by Friday, near the SE Florida Coast
and thats exactly my forcast. i just stated it would have a 6-12 hr lull after reorginising and then since she would be orginisedmore like a cyclone she would be able to intensify more like some of us expect. we are about 6 hrs into the lull and should see a marked increase in the convection over the next 6 hrs. she will be a ts probly with the 11am update. all these things i stated at 10pm last night. sofar word for word its all happening like i said it would
heres a good limk to the navy site showing the past 8-190 hrs and the nice blow up of deep cpnvection, i believe the next 6 hrs will be exciting as we watch the birth of this storm

Link
All the same for the 11 PM update with the exception of the storm a bit stronger that before and 40 NM North. I believe it to be Katrina by 5, 8 at the latest, and a sligth shift of the forecast further North, then slower late in the period.
Tropical Wave between the Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands appears to be getting a bit stronger... Something brewing there too?
wouldn't doubt it raindancer. It wasn't even there 48 hours ago, but this time of year, with these conditions it is likely
def something to watch
and 79 i doubt by 5 but i could see by 8. she will be bubbling up over the next 6-12 hrs
Lefty, I have found the dVorak satellite to be invaluable throughout the course of this system, from TD 10 to now, try this link. It allows us to se nearly a visible image, at least a mock one.. Link
thanks, thats one of the many windows i have open already lol
79 u should know by now theres not to much more info availible i am not using lol
Then do you see the 70 NM jump that the Center made during the past 6 hours to the North? its approx at 24.5N 76.5W
i feelme and you are probly the most aware if u will in this blog. atleast thats how i have felt from what i have seen
New recon guys...hello Katrina! Flight level winds of 45 kt. qualifies as a TS, so as I mentioned at the 2 am intermediate advisory, they'll upgrade the system at 5.Link
dunno bout the center jumping yet. still wating for the microwave data to see whats going on inside the storm but i noted that, also u must know the nhc has stated their center location could be as much as 30nm off course so the jumo may be not that big after all. but yes i do see it
coo; guess ur 5a, beat my 8am 79 lol
zeenster, that link didnt work
just check the vortex message at the nhc website
Recon doesn't show that giant leap to the north...23.55 N, 76.18 W ... Guess the NHC was correct in not trusting their estimate...
lefty, I hope all those years at school helped in the 4 hours differenc of my prediction..LOL
lol yeah
Rats. Try this one, then. Link
u know i was agreeing with u but i need to have the data first lol thats how i work. i am pretty sure if i had a microwave sat img it would have shown a ts and would have been pushing for 5 as well but these damn sat can't ever seeem to pass over the storm
I'm blind, I still don't see the winds mentioned. The link I saw was fron 2 AM.
click refrsh and it will refersh it, the nhc site is weird.

000
URNT12 KNHC 240609
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/05:49:00Z
B. 23 deg 47 min N
076 deg 11 min W
C. 925 mb 748 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 070 deg 020 kt
G. 308 deg 071 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 21 C/ 772 m
J. 22 C/ 773 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 9
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 10
MAX FL WIND 20 KT N QUAD 05:25:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB
BANDING E TO S ON RADAR


Hurricane 79 - try the one I posted a couple minutes ago. You will see the flight level winds at the bottom of the message. The time index says 07:39Z, so it's definitely a new one. It's just late and you're bleary-eyed...not blind, lol.
sorry wrong vortex message


000
URNT12 KNHC 240756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/07:39:30Z
B. 23 deg 55 min N
076 deg 18 min W
C. 925 mb 745 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 128 deg 036 kt
G. 044 deg 097 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 20 C/ 769 m
J. 21 C/ 768 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 9
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF307 0212A CYCLONE OB 14
MAX FL WIND 45 KT E QUAD 06:40:00 Z
MAX FL TEMP 22 C, 40 / 31NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 925 MB


Not calling it Katrina yet.

5 AM is out.
Ok, I see the new strength they found. That must have been on their return flight? The re-fixed the center not too far from 2 hours before, on their outbound flight. Oh, well, I will wake up and see around 9 AM,,,,Thanks all!
yea thought that might happen. they took off for the flght level and said it equates to 30 kts at the surface i guess, though 15 kts seems like quite a bit. so damn conservitive
ok lefty, it appears that 8 AM may be the right choice...I think I may make my track forecast after all now. (6Z should be out)
yeah but watch, they will wait to 11am like i said after all, seems like something they would do, the crack heads down their lol
just saw a report on the news that 50 percent of online users still use dsl. i can't see not having broadband lol
iam sorry imeant dial up lol
well - where I live, my DSL package is HALF what a broadband package costs, and I'm a single mom on a budget, y'know??
By broadband, I mean cable-based like Road Runner...
I take that back, I want to wait until later in the morning to se more trends in the current track. The models are way too uncertain to make forecast tracks every 4 hours....
sorry i meant dial-up,dsl is broadband
I'm sure there are places where you can't get broadband, aren't there? I know you can only get DSL in certain areas. Dial-up was such a pain in the south end. Still, I remember back when we thought getting on "Prodigy" was totally amazing, and we weren't fazed by the wait. Of course, we didn't know better....
lolyeash
Well, I'm gonna grab a few zzz's so I can be ready to lay in a few groceries before I get all rained on and can't drive on the flooded roads around here. No big deal - Cape Coral will just get real wet with this one. :-) G'nite all - I'm off to Oz......
i been wandering anyone know why there is a blackout everynight
no post for 2 hours? everyone still asleep?
hello im in nassau bahamas.its dead calm here no rain
Good morning all. Lefty ... Satellites "blackout" every day due to a lack of solar energy. Actually an eclipse. They power themselves off until they are out of the eclipse and back into the sun's influence.
even as dumb as I am about weather, i can guarantee that THAT'S gonna change....but i'm glad you're enjoying a beautiful morning
Hi
The new track has it coming straight for us in Nassau :( Spent all night battening my French doors on the balcony. I still hope it makes a turn to Andros, which is almost a deserted island. Tonight will not be fun. My one-year-old might freak when he hears those winds :(
golden, mybah...good luck to you...your post gave me chills...at least it's not a healthy cat 2-4...hopefully this will be short-lived for you guys...
Good morning all!

Anyone knwo why the computer models for TD10 (above) vary from the computer models for TD12?
rxse7en,

wondering that myself. i find it a bit odd!
They are also ALL OVER THE PLACE. I'm personally, favoring a recurve northeast after she gets over the Gulf. Which means she'll go due West--as I'm ALWAYS wrong and base my predictions on emotion rather than "goofy" science! :D Something like the GFS: http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_model.gif That was a pretty popular path last year and gave us in Jacksonville some "weather."

B
Could someone explain for us lay folk about when tropical storm or hurricane warnings can/will be issued? Also, any thoughts on if there will be a hurricane warning in the Miami area on Thursday night? (I am planning an event and need to cancel it today if we will be under a hurricane warning) thanks....
You guys are gonna get "something" down there. The concensus says nothing major until it hits the Gulf. But, like all weather in Florida, if you don't like it, wait 15 minutes and it will change. Waters are pretty warm off the East Coast so this thing could blow up to a strong Tropical Storm or Cat 1 at the last minute.

B
what?? Why hasnt Katrina strenghtened last night, I was ready to wake up to at least a TS. Oh well, should be cat 1 b4 landfall.

StormTop - whats going on with her. Its good thats shes is slow but why not all the strenghening?
ATTN southbeachdude: A tropical storm watch means tropical storm force conditions "may" affect your area within 36 hours, and a tropical storm warning means tropical storm force conditions are "imminent" within the next 24 hours. (Meaning winds of at least 39 mph.) A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions "may" affect your area within 36 hours, and a hurricane warning means hurricane force conditions are "imminent" within 24 hours (74+mph).

Chances are when the 11am update is posted by the NHC we will have a named storm. Also because of timing we will have tropical storm warnings posted for south Florida, and possibly a hurricane watch. It does not appear that even if a hurricane watch is posted for the area there will be hurricane force winds. However, that is way it would be a "watch" and not a "warning."
TWC just called td has now classified this is a tropical storm katrina.
good morning all - the bam and the gfs now has it going west across south Fl and then north towards the west coast of florida - how realistic is this scenerio ??
000
WTNT62 KNHC 241209
TCUAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2005
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWELVE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM KATRINA...

SHORTLY BEFORE 8 AM EDT...REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS IN
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 40 MPH
...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM KATRINA.

FORECASTER STEWART
tampa.. thats what the concensus is. to go north after coming thru FL.

**Let the Games Begin**
The pressure has also dropped so it is getting its act together.
I find it funny that our local West Palm Beach news does not know its know TD12 is a tropical storm
Wow. Look at how the model shiftd. Granted they did it after it croses Florida, but what a change.
Stormjunkie can you post a link to those models
Look at this link. . .

Link

Can anyone say rapid development!
Check This visible sat. link!

Link
FSU-- also whats funny is half of the news will call it TD12 the other half Katrina. I guess someof them have better conncections than others tot he NHC.
Charlie 2!
The local weather still hasn't mentioned that it's "Katrina" yet and are still calling for it to stay away from LA. Hope they're right.
FSUstormnut, NOTHING our local news does surprises me anymore! ;-) I hope John Mathews doesn't have a stroke this time around. I worry about him sometimes.
Has anyone noticed that the track is continously adjusted to the right. This has happened all year and with the erratic movement of Katrina, anything can happen.
LOL the local (LIVE) newscaster just said "Coming up in weather more information on TD #12"
I was only looking at the computer models here on wunderground, and they have changed considerably from last night.
subtropic... thats funny!

Does anyone think Katrina may actually reach hurricane status before 1st landfall?

I was fortunate enough to miss both storms last year, but sure lived the aftermath. It was crazy not having power for 7 days! I sure hope this is nothing like that.
I agree with the North/Right shift that has bee no going on 007.
FSUstormnut, what a great link, thanks for the info for us no educated weather junkies.
Count your bleesings stormnut 7 days is like a walk in the park.
More models...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
OMG! The local guy said "TD 12 is getting better organized and I wouldn't be surprised if she's strengthing and would be named later today"

Can you believe TWC has better info!
We were without power for five days and we're in Jax. :D
I'm obsessed with weather, but I don't know any more information than anyone else on this website. I am a business grad from FSU and I sell houses (I took meteorology at school, but did not major in it). I find watching the tropics very interesting. When I find something new and exciting, I will be happy to post it.
I have to go to work but before I go let me give you my odds.

Landfall odds
2 FL landfalls 60%
GA/SC landfall 40% (Katrina is moving more northward)
No landfall 1%

Intensity odds
TS 40%
Cat 1 60%
Obsessed is the word! My parents have been begging us to move up near them in the mountains of Upstate New York. I told them, "But, you don't get hurricanes up there!"
rxse7en, do you think they'd mind if I went in your place?
rsxe7en, LOL!
ok here is the new info...on KATRINA........KATRINA NOW REPRESENTS A BIGGER THREAT TO FLORIDA NOW THAT SHE IS OVER THE WARM WATERS...A HIURRICANE WATCH MAY BE ISSUES FROM 7 MILR BRIDGE TO JUST NORTH OF MIAMI...THIS STORM IS BEGINNING TO STRENGTEN AND REPORTS FROM SHIOPS AND RECON INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS DROPPING...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST FROM LAST NIGHT THE 500MB TROUGH IS WEAKENING AND A BUIDING HIGH IS FILLING IN ANS SHOULD CAUSE KATRINA TO MOVE ALMOST DUE WEST IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT ENTERS THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SOMETIME ON FRIDAY EVENING...THEN THE SAME SCENARIO IS SUPPOSED TO STAY IN PLACE FOR 120 HRS OR UNTIL TUESADAY BEFORE A TROUGH COMES DOWN AND WEAKENS THE HIGH OVER TEXAS...KATRINA WILL STRENGTH RAPIDLY AS IT GETS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...HNC HAS IT AS A CAT 3 AND I HAVE IT AS A CAT 5 MOVING JUST WEST OF GRAND ISLE BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 170MPH WINDS...THIS TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED AND THE WATER TEMPS ARE REALLY SIZZLING..I WILL GET SOME MORE INFO AND I EXPECT KATRINA TO BE A HURRICANE AS IT CROSSES OVER MIAMI OR JUST TO THE NORTH...THIS HAS BEEN A WEATHER BULLETIN BY STORMTOPS HWO AT O800 HRS..
yeesh, whats with the caps?

*offers Stormtop a cup of decaff*
Hello all, first post on this forum ever...
I live in Fort Lauderdale, FL and was wondering what is the very earliest I could expect effects of this storm and, given the info available right now, what is the worst possible scenario we could encounter in South Florida. Thanks!
794. WPBFL
Cute little update there Stormtop, but for obvious reasons I think I'll stick with the NHC version.
JUST GIVING YOU ALL THE LATEST RIGHT OFF THE PRESS
who's press? yours?!
WELL WPBFL YOU DONT KNOW HOW CLOSE THIS IS TO THE NHC..THE ONLY THING WE DISAGREE WITH IS THE INTESITY...I SAY AC CAT 5 THEY SAY A CAT 3...THE TRACK IS RIGHT ON LINE..
Lose the CAPS lock Lenny.
799. WPBFL
And when is it supposed to have time to get to cat5?? Recovering from going over florida? I doubt it
from Baynews 9 Out Tampa Newschannel email alerts

<
Tune in to BN9 for more.>>

8:53 AM eastern
NO THE INFO I GET IN FROM MY BUDDIES..KATRINA WILL CONTIUE TO STRENGTHEN AND IT WOULDNT SURPRISE ME IF SHE IS A HURRICANE BY THIS EVENING...
Oh I thought it was safe to enter this morning, but I was wrong..lol...He's back...Uh oh.
stormtop.. are you saying Katrina will hit s. florida as a cat 2?
WPBL THE TEMPS ARE RUNNING 88-94 DEGREES IN THE GULF..LOOK AT JOSE HOW FAST HE STRENGTHENED SO CLOSE TO LAND..KATRINA ONCE COMING OFF OF FLA IT WILL BE OVER WATER FOR 2 DAYS AND IT WILL STILL HAVE THE GULF STREAM TO PASS OVER JUST BEFORE IT MAKES LANDFALL...THATS 100 MILES OF EXTREMELY WARM WATER LIKE 98 DEGREES..THATS HOW IT WILL ATTAIN ITS CAT 5 STATUS...
Geez now I get Stormtop bulletins. What is this world coming to!!!..lol..
Again I ask, lose the CAPS lock, Lenny.
NO SCROLL UP AND LOOK AT MY LATERST UPDATE....KATRINA 8AM CDT..
the track has not changed by the nhc since yesterday at 5pm...this is a track that is similar to emily..you have a stong high guiding the storm on a west to wnw for the next 48 hours then you have your turn to the nw towards the la coast....
Thank you.
katrina will be a force to deal with by sunday for the la coast..i wat to make this perfectly clear i think the first hurricane watches depending on when katrina gets in the eastern gulf a watch will go up from layeyette to mobile alabama.....
Katrina does appear to be strengthening rapidly. The outflow is looking very impressive in all directions! I'm very curious what the 11pm update will tell us.
Yes we got it Storm, waters are "sizzling", explosive development, CAT 5, we heard it all already. You getting excited yet..lol...
Stormtop what does your Viper say?
11pm CDT katrina will have winds od at least 50 mph...bahamas winds have increased substantially in the last 3 hours...they are getting gusts to 50 ..sustained 45 mph...perssures are dropping now...this storm is getting its act together..my baby katrina has a brain after all...
Yes I noticed that this morning FSU. The outflow is finally trying to get organized on the western side of this storm. First signs of this since this storm organized yesterday. Better anticyclonic flow above system. We will see if this trend continues today. Could be a CAT 1 when it reaches Florida.
Yeah cmon Storm warm up the Viper!!! He comes the Viper!!! Woohoo!!!
I really want to hear what the Viper has to say!
i wont consult viper until saturday evening...that will be my first run on viper.......
no douby in m,y mind weatherguy it will be a cat 1 when it hits fla...85mph winds
What does the acronym (Viper) stand for Storm?
It looked like Katrina was wrapping in dry air earlier this morning, but has since improved its symmetry now has impressive outflow. I think it will be at least a Cat. 1 at its 1st land fall.
VIPER=Stormtop's imagination...lol..
Viper..Very Idiotic Person Erring Royally

Hi Everyone: Been reading your posts since the beginning of the season- this really is a great place to get some info! What is everyone's thoughts on impacts to the Big Bend? I think poor St. Marks is still cleaning out from Dennis...
RAPID STRENGTHING........FALLING PRESSURES .........CANTORI SAYS A HURRICANE COUD HIT FLA WITH 95 MPH WINDS ..ITS IN AND AREA VERY WEKS SHEAR NOTHING TO BOTHER HER..I AGREE WITH CANTORI..
826. lippy
"Lenny"... You're my hero Queen.

Looks like some of the other models are turning the storm north over Florida or just off the west coast of Florida and taking it out into the Atlantic. Maybe the GFS has been right all along.
LADOBE LADY IF you keep watching bob breck he will confuse you..one of these days people are going to be killed because of him..he is always trying to out do the nhc...that will get him in trouble sooner or later..
OK LENNY...THANK YOU!!!!
an*
weak*
Lose the Caps lock Lenny.
"IF you keep watching bob breck he will confuse you."...Pot calling the kettle black..lmao...
lippy if you think the storm is going out in the atlantic i will give you my viper...what a fool..
832. lippy
"Stormtop what does your viper say?"

Am I the only person here twisted enough to read something revolting into that question?
weatherguy knows im right he is just trying to give me a hard time lol
834. lippy
Now, now Stormtop - no one here wants your viper.
It's actually VIPIR

It is widely used by TV news channels.

VIPIR (Volumetric Imaging and Processing of Integrated Radar)

IOW. It takes info from a number of radar sites, stirs it up in a computer & comes up with a composit radar image.



Hey lippy..On the GFS, I've been watching the runs from 0Z to 6Z, awaiting 12Z info. Each run is starting to bring it on a more westward track. It is still moving it north eventually, but brings it more into Florida, and almost into the Gulf at 6Z. So it is trending west now, we will see if this continues today. Should have 12Z here shortly will let you know.
837. JeffM
New post by Dr. Jeff up.
StormFlop said "..if you think this is going in the Atlantic I'll give you my Viper..fool"

Another example of the pot calling the kettle black.

StormFlop...why do act like you came up with the idea of Katrina reaching hurricane status at 1st Fl landfall? The NHC has mentioned that possibility in it's last several reports.
lol the gfs and ukmet models have been the worse this year...i have no comment ofn computers..i go by facy=ts that are currently taking place in the atmosphere..you can see the trough at 500mb why the satorm was moving nw now its beginning to weaken rapidly...the high is building in and the next 24 hours you will see a definite west movement...
840. JeffM
Lets move this over to the new Dr. Jeff blog
hazmat either you cant read or you just stupid and i hope its the first one....i have no comment for and idiot like you....
katrina is moving on wnw heading now the trough is washing out the big high is building..this ai almost a scenario like andrew....its kind od scary..
Can read & SPELL...funny your disdain for computers...you're on one now & your Viper is one as well.

Your Katrina...the one that was nothing & people were wasting time talking about....the one recon would be canceled for...Geez.
is*
of*
new blog.
good morning, who ever answered my question about the blacxk out, thats what i thought but was making sure thank you.


so to all guys who did not want to listen to melasy ha ha told you what would happen


and 79 good call man 800 was a good rime we have the earliezst 12 name storm