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Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult?

By: Jeff Masters 3:29 PM GMT on January 25, 2017

Will Global Warming Make Hurricane Forecasting More Difficult? That’s the title and provocative premise of a new paper by MIT hurricane scientist Kerry Emanuel (early online PDF available here from the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.) Dr. Emanuel makes the case that the most dangerous storms—tropical cyclones that intensify rapidly just before landfall, catching forecasters and populations off guard, thereby risking large casualties—are likely to become increasingly frequent and severe as the globe warms, increasing from one such storm every 100 years to one every 5 - 10 years.




Figure 1. Since 1900, 56% of all U.S. deaths from tropical cyclones have been caused by the three storms shown above.

Tropical cyclone mortality dominated by a small number of events
Since 1971, tropical cyclones (which include all hurricanes, typhoons, tropical storms, and tropical depressions) have killed 470,000 people (about 10,000 per year) and caused $700 billion in damage, according to the international disaster database, EM-DAT. Most of these deaths were caused by just a few storms—for example, three Atlantic hurricanes (the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900, the 1928 Lake Okeechobee hurricane, and Hurricane Katrina of 2005)—caused 56% of all U.S. hurricane deaths since 1900.

Increased vulnerability due to growing coastal populations
In recent years, better tropical cyclones forecasts have resulted in reduced death tolls and lower damages than would otherwise have occurred. However, a large increase in coastal population resulted in an almost three-fold increase in the global population exposed to tropical cyclone hazards between 1970 and 2010 (Peduzza et al., 2012.) This helped fuel an increase in tropical cyclone damages of about 6% per year between 1970 and 2015, according to EM-DAT. Thus, much improved forecasts and/or major reductions in vulnerability though better preparedness and building codes are needed to avoid increasing tropical cyclone death tolls in the coming decades.

Poor intensity forecasts make us vulnerable
While track forecasts of hurricanes have improved by more than a factor of two over the past 20 years, intensity forecasts have shown little improvement. Dr. Emanuel gives four reasons for this:

1) Very high resolution computer models are needed (1 km resolution or better), which are beyond the capability of modern computers to run economically.

2) We have poor understanding of and models of the processes in the lowest few hundred meters of the atmosphere (the boundary layer).

3) We have difficulty modeling how the top few hundred meters of the ocean responds to a storm.

4) The process of taking observations that show a dramatic variation over short distances and correctly initializing a hurricane model with these observations is difficult.

The 2016 hurricane season gave us two humbling examples of how far we still have to go with intensity forecasts. As Hurricane Matthew drifted across the southern Caribbean Sea in late September, the hurricane rocketed in strength from Category 1 to Category 5 in just 24 hours (from 80 mph sustained winds at 03Z on September 30 to 160 mph at 03Z on October 1). The official NHC forecast at the start of this day-long burst was for Matthew to take three days to top out at high-end Category 2 strength (105 mph). Less dramatic but still eye-opening was Nicole’s surge from Category 1 to Category 4 strength in the Northwest Atlantic over just 21 hours (from 90 mph sustained winds at 06Z on October 12 to 135 mph at 03Z on October 13). Like Matthew, Nicole had also been predicted at the start of its rapid strengthening to remain just below the major hurricane threshold (Category 3). Dr. Emanuel gives an additional troubling example of a rapid intensification evert that was poorly forecasted: Hurricane Patricia of October 2015, which hit a relatively unpopulated portion of the Pacific coast of Mexico as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds after topping out as the strongest tropical cyclone ever measured—215 mph sustained winds. During a 24-hour period from October 22 at 06 GMT to October 23 at 06 GMT, Patricia intensified by an astonishing 120 mph—from an 85 mph Category 1 storm to a 205 mph Category 5 storm. During this same period, the National Hurricane Center predicted an intensification by only 35 mph. Dr. Emanuel notes, “Had the storm made landfall at the end of this period of rapid intensification, the result could have been catastrophic given the poor anticipation of the magnitude of the event.” 


Quantifying the probability of rapid intensification just before landfall
Quantifying the probability of rapid intensification just before landfall is difficult using the existing database of global tropical cyclones, which goes back about 60 years in the Atlantic, but only 35 - 45 years in the Southern Hemisphere. Since Dr. Emanuel’s study was interested in rare storms that have a return period of about once every 100 years, a computer model was used. The model generated a set of 22,000 landfalling U.S. hurricanes during the recent climate period of 1979 - 2005, and looked at storms that rapidly intensified just before landfall. The analysis found that about once per century, we should expect to see a hurricane that intensifies by 70 mph or greater in the 24 hours just before landfall. The major metropolitan areas most at risk for surprise intensification just before landfall included Houston, New Orleans, Tampa/St. Petersburg, and Miami.

Hurricanes are heat engines that take heat energy out of the oceans and convert it to the mechanical energy of wind. Thus, hurricane scientists are in broad agreement that global warming should make the strongest hurricanes stronger. The computer modeling results of Dr. Emanuel also found that global warming under a business-as-usual scenario would result in more cases of rapidly intensifying hurricanes making landfall in the United States. The odds of a hurricane that intensified by 70 mph or greater in the 24 hours just before landfall increased from once every 100 years to once every 5 - 10 years by the year 2100 in his simulations. What’s more, 24-hour pre-landfall intensifications of 115 mph or more—which were essentially nonexistent in the late 20th Century simulations—occurred as often as once every 100 years by the year 2100. With increasing coastal populations, limited skill in intensity forecasting, and steadily increasing sea levels, this potential increase in rapidly intensifying hurricanes results in the “risk of an increased frequency of poorly anticipated high-intensity landfalls leading to higher rates of injury and death,” wrote Dr. Emanuel. He recommended that “greater emphasis be placed on improving hurricane intensity prediction and on preparing populations to respond to high intensity landfalling hurricanes at short notice.”


Links
Top Ten Tropical Cyclone Events of 2016 Potentially Influenced by Climate Change (my December 2016 blog post)
Hurricane Patricia's 215 mph Winds: A Warning Shot Across Our Bow (my 2016 blog post)
Fewer but Stronger Global Tropical Cyclones Due to Ocean Warming (my 2015 blog post)
Hurricanes and Climate Change: Huge Dangers, Huge Unknowns (my 2013 blog post)
Climatesignals.org analysis of Hurricane Matthew

Hurricane Patricia Cat-5 fix

Check out this incredible footage of our flight through the eye of Category 5 Hurricane #Patricia off the coast of Mexico. The video was taken from the flight station of #NOAA43 (#NOAA P-3) and provided by Lt. Cmdr. Scott Price (the missions's Aircraft Commander). The video begins inside the eyewall: note that the intense rain and wind combination makes it impossible to see the nose of the aircraft just a few feet away. At 37 seconds, the crew enters the eye of the #Hurricane, where the violent sea-state below becomes visible. Note that due to the storm's incredibly steep gradient, the aircraft is pitched downward as the aircraft descends closer to the ocean. At 57 seconds, the curved eyewall on the opposite side of this very small eye becomes apparent. After a couple of slight turns requested by the Flight Meteorologist to report the exact center of the storm, the crew turns right to avoid the worst of the eyewall. At ~2 minutes into the video, the aircraft reaches the opposite eyewall where the crew loses visibility once again.

Posted by The NOAA Hurricane Hunters on Thursday, November 5, 2015


Video 1. Incredible footage taken during the flight of NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft N43RF through the eye of Category 5 Hurricane Patricia on the afternoon of October 23, 2015, when the storm was near peak strength, with 205 mph sustained surface winds and a central pressure of 878 mb. Lt. Cmdr. Scott Price (the mission's Aircraft Commander) made the video using a GoPro camera. The video begins inside the eyewall: note that the intense rain and wind combination makes it impossible to see the nose of the aircraft just a few feet away. Since the aircraft is flying perpendicular to the wind in order to find the center, the rainfall is blowing from left to right in front of the pilot's vision. At 37 seconds, the crew enters the eye of the hurricane, where the violent sea-state below becomes visible. Note that due to the storm's incredibly steep pressure gradient, the aircraft is pitched downward as the aircraft descends closer to the ocean, in order to keep flying at a constant pressure altitude. At 57 seconds, the curved eyewall on the opposite side of this very small eye becomes apparent. After a couple of slight turns requested by the Flight Meteorologist to report the exact center of the storm, the crew turns right to avoid the worst of the eyewall. At ~2 minutes into the video, the aircraft reaches the opposite eyewall where the crew loses visibility once again. Posted by The NOAA Hurricane Hunters on Thursday, November 5, 2015.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Great post Jeff. Heads will explode...
I met the NOAA Pilot who was CDR on this Patricia flight. He explained How the runs before were not up to their standards, so the made the above pass soon after, after they regrouped for a time .

I met the Pilot at the 2016 HAT,or Hurricane Awareness Tour last May here in NOLA.

NOAA Hurricane Awareness Tour
By: Portlight , 11:40 AM CDT on May 19, 2016





Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Thanks for the update! Good Morning Class! A bit nippy at the olde homestead in Soo Cal! 32 degrees. I think I can handle a few weeks of "normal" Soo Cal winter weather!

Weather Conditions For:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft.; Lat/Lon: 33.344/-116.732
Current Time: Jan 25 7:39 am PST


25 Jan 7:30 am 32 29 90 WSW 1

Quoting 4. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Thanks for the update! Good Morning Class! A bit nippy at the olde homestead in Soo Cal! 32 degrees. I think I can handle a few weeks of "normal" Soo Cal winter weather!

Weather Conditions For:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft.; Lat/Lon: 33.344/-116.732
Current Time: Jan 25 7:39 am PST


25 Jan 7:30 am 32 29 90 WSW 1




Two weeks without a freeze in mid JANUARY in DC area. This ends Friday morning finally.

Thank You Dr. While I have not read the new paper, the writing has been on the wall based upon recent SST's in the Bahamas, Florida, and the Gulf of Mexico. The Bahamas region, as one FSU Met Professor commented last year in his personal Blog, is a "nursery" region for TS development and growth and we have seen record warm SST's in those waters in recent seasons. We have also not seen a big one in the Gulf of Mexico in recent years but that has been a function of luck and providence given the very warm SST's we have seen there as well. And the waters between the Bahamas and Coastal Florida/Florida Straits have also seen record warm SST's in recent years with wind shear being the main limiting factor in keep recent storms in these regions in check.

This streak of luck is going to run out at some point (more majors in the Caribbean, Florida and Gulf) and the storms mentioned in your post have the same thing in common; taking advantage of the very warm SST's in these noted regions on the way to landfall in the US when SST's were relatively cooler than they are now which will most likely continue to warm in the coming summer seasons.

It's going to boil down to (literally) hotter SST's and favorable wind shear windows for many of these storms approaching the US in the future. Here is the SST anomaly chart for last year in August 2016:





Is it just my computer? I cannot seem to get the video loaded.
The Human induced Global Warming continues from burning fossil fuels to run our Global society.

It continues, unabated.

December 2016 CO2 404.48ppm

"We were thumped really hard today making our first penetration in Patricia. +3G and -1.5G," Joseph Klipper, who was at the helm, wrote on Facebook. "3G" means they felt forces pulling them that were three times that of standard gravity, and -1.5 G meant it was an opposite push 1.5 times the force of standard gravity. Usually the only way you experience those numbers is if you're on a crazy roller coaster or warming up as a passenger with the Blue Angels.

"The last ten seconds of this video we hit a up draft followed immediately by a down draft. A very sporting day!" Klipper continued. "Airspeed swings from 240 to 170 knots while attempting unsuccessfully to maintain 210 knots We were thumped so hard that our flight directors keyboard flew off his station and all of his data was dumped. We circled for a hour afterwards as he reconstructed the penetration, made more difficult by the fact the we encountered record setting pressures and airspeeds."

It probably wasn't just the keyboard that was knocked off. I imagine the cabin was quite a mess. (If you've ever seen Disneyland's "Twilight Tower of Terror" elevator ride, it was probably something like this, only without the souvenir stand at the end.)

One of the other pilots on the mission, NOAA Lt. Cdr Patrick Didier, told ABC News that out of all the 3,800 hours of flight time he's clocked so far, his last flight into Hurricane Patricia on Friday "was the most intense turbulence I'd ever encountered."

"Some of the most experienced among our group said Patricia definitely approached their top five of most turbulent flights they'd ever done," Didier said. "We experienced a few big jolts before punching out of the wall of the eye into the other side. Some of the keyboards flipped and papers got loose in the cabin."

But their efforts were important -- their data showed the central pressure of the storm was 879 millibars (25.96" on your home barometer) -- a Western Hemisphere record for lowest pressure ever recorded, and not too far from the world record of 870 mb from Typhoon Tip on Oct. 12, 1979.



The crew of #NOAA P3) from the historic flight into East Pacific hurricane (Photo Joseph Klippel, AOC Flight Engineer) 10/23/2015. Back row: Joe Sapp, Mike Holmes, Joseph Klippel, Lonnie Kregelka, Jim Warnecke, Tim Gallagher, Chris Lalonde, Bill Olney, Dana Naeher, Bobby Peek. Kneeling- Pat Didier, Scott Price and Adam Abitbol.

Hurricane hunters are essential to giving forecasters critical real-time data on developing storms that we just can't get from satellites. Obviously aside from a few sporadic buoys we don't have much for surface data and any ships in the area are likely high-tailing somewhere else.

The NOAA crew uses specially equipped planes to criss-cross the storm, dropping weather instruments at strategic points in the storm and sending the data back to NOAA. In addition, they make a number of passes through the eye wall -- the strongest part of the storm -- to measure peak winds, and storm structure, and then fly into the storm's eye to measure its central pressure, its distance across, and how the storm is behaving. The data is also crucial to feed into real-time hurricane forecasting models to improve their accuracy.

It was these flights with Patricia that sounded the alarm to forecasters at how rapidly the storm was intensifying -- we would have never known 879 mb or 200 mph winds. But also showed the eye wasn't very wide - about 7-12 miles across. Usually you think of the eye of a hurricane and winds are calm with sunny skies, but Patricia's eye was so narrow, the "calm" winds were only about 50 mph at the center ("There's not a lot of space to go from 190 mph winds to calm," one forecaster wrote about Patricia) with not enough space for clear skies, just lighter clouds.

We were fortunate in this particular storm that it had such a narrow eye wall and managed to make landfall in a very sparesly populated spot of Mexico. But imagine had it hit closer to a city, and with how fast it intensified (85 mph to 200 mph in a day! Another record...) we might not have known just how strong the storm was without the hurricane hunter data.

So next time you're getting jostled a bit on that flight over the mountains, take some solace that it could be much worse -- and NOAA still has a perfect record of safety even after flying through countless hurricanes.

Quoting 7. SunnyDaysFla:

Is it just my computer? I cannot seem to get the video loaded.


yep it most be you has it works this find for me
Quoting 5. georgevandenberghe:



Two weeks without a freeze in mid JANUARY in DC area. This ends Friday morning finally.




It's been cold and wet for 2 months in Soo Cal.....Im ready for 75-80 and blue skies for a bit, back to normal in other words. I guess it's coming your way.
Some pretty amazing 6 day snow totals for Soo Cal Mountain Locations! From NWS San Diego

6-DAY SNOWFALL REPORTS...

STATION SNOWFALL (IN) ELEVATION(FT)
SAN JACINTO TRAM TOP 73 8379
GREEN VALLEY LAKE 59 6873
MT BALDY (END BALDY ROAD) 54 6360
BIG BEAR 51 6815
ARROWBEAR LAKE 47 6190
RUNNING SPRINGS 47 6225
BARTON FLATS 36 6867
FOREST FALLS YUCAIPA 33 9020
IDYLLWILD 33 5900
ANGELUS OAKS 31 5780
WRIGHTWOOD 28 5900
BLUE JAY 22 5372
MT LAGUNA 20 5900
BIRCH HILL 16 5645
CRESTLINE 10 4850
OAK GLEN 5 4923
JULIAN 5 4240
PHELAN 4 3993

From Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory:

Two Who Enabled El Niño Forecasts Win 2017 Vetlesen Prize

[...]

Two scientists who untangled the complex forces that drive El Niño, the world’s most powerful weather cycle, have won the 2017 Vetlesen Prize for achievement in earth sciences. The $250,000 award will go to S. George Philander of Princeton University and Mark A. Cane of Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. The men laid out the cyclic interaction of winds and currents that sweep the tropical Pacific Ocean every two to seven years, affecting weather across the world. Their work led to practical forecasts of such swings; institutions worldwide now monitor warning signs to help prepare for crop planting, disease control, and floods or droughts.

[...]

How might global warming affect El Niño? “The models are all over the place,” says Cane. But he assumes that both droughts and floods on either end of the cycles will grow more intense, and the results may not be good. In 2011, he and two students published a paper suggesting that civil wars are already more likely to break out in much of the tropics during El Niño events, perhaps due to the pressures of extreme weather. And in 2015, he coauthored a widely discussed study suggesting that the Syrian civil war may have been sparked in part by a drought intensified by overall global warming. Philander’s take: “Global warming is a serious issue, but science has its limits. Our highest priority should not be doom and gloom, but addressing poverty and environmental justice. Earth is an amazing place−every time we make a new discovery about another planet, this one looks more exceptional. The only real prediction I can make is that we will be surprised.”

[...]

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 9. Patrap:

"We were thumped really hard today making our first penetration in Patricia. +3G and -1.5G," Joseph Klipper, who was at the helm, wrote on Facebook. "3G" means they felt forces pulling them that were three times that of standard gravity, and -1.5 G meant it was an opposite push 1.5 times the force of standard gravity. Usually the only way you experience those numbers is if you're on a crazy roller coaster or warming up as a passenger with the Blue Angels.

"The last ten seconds of this video we hit a up draft followed immediately by a down draft. A very sporting day!" Klipper continued. "Airspeed swings from 240 to 170 knots while attempting unsuccessfully to maintain 210 knots We were thumped so hard that our flight directors keyboard flew off his station and all of his data was dumped. We circled for a hour afterwards as he reconstructed the penetration, made more difficult by the fact the we encountered record setting pressures and airspeeds."

It probably wasn't just the keyboard that was knocked off. I imagine the cabin was quite a mess. (If you've ever seen Disneyland's "Twilight Tower of Terror" elevator ride, it was probably something like this, only without the souvenir stand at the end.)

One of the other pilots on the mission, NOAA Lt. Cdr Patrick Didier, told ABC News that out of all the 3,800 hours of flight time he's clocked so far, his last flight into Hurricane Patricia on Friday "was the most intense turbulence I'd ever encountered."

"Some of the most experienced among our group said Patricia definitely approached their top five of most turbulent flights they'd ever done," Didier said. "We experienced a few big jolts before punching out of the wall of the eye into the other side. Some of the keyboards flipped and papers got loose in the cabin."

But their efforts were important -- their data showed the central pressure of the storm was 879 millibars (25.96" on your home barometer) -- a Western Hemisphere record for lowest pressure ever recorded, and not too far from the world record of 870 mb from Typhoon Tip on Oct. 12, 1979.



The crew of #NOAA P3) from the historic flight into East Pacific hurricane (Photo Joseph Klippel, AOC Flight Engineer) 10/23/2015. Back row: Joe Sapp, Mike Holmes, Joseph Klippel, Lonnie Kregelka, Jim Warnecke, Tim Gallagher, Chris Lalonde, Bill Olney, Dana Naeher, Bobby Peek. Kneeling- Pat Didier, Scott Price and Adam Abitbol.

Hurricane hunters are essential to giving forecasters critical real-time data on developing storms that we just can't get from satellites. Obviously aside from a few sporadic buoys we don't have much for surface data and any ships in the area are likely high-tailing somewhere else.

The NOAA crew uses specially equipped planes to criss-cross the storm, dropping weather instruments at strategic points in the storm and sending the data back to NOAA. In addition, they make a number of passes through the eye wall -- the strongest part of the storm -- to measure peak winds, and storm structure, and then fly into the storm's eye to measure its central pressure, its distance across, and how the storm is behaving. The data is also crucial to feed into real-time hurricane forecasting models to improve their accuracy.

It was these flights with Patricia that sounded the alarm to forecasters at how rapidly the storm was intensifying -- we would have never known 879 mb or 200 mph winds. But also showed the eye wasn't very wide - about 7-12 miles across. Usually you think of the eye of a hurricane and winds are calm with sunny skies, but Patricia's eye was so narrow, the "calm" winds were only about 50 mph at the center ("There's not a lot of space to go from 190 mph winds to calm," one forecaster wrote about Patricia) with not enough space for clear skies, just lighter clouds.

We were fortunate in this particular storm that it had such a narrow eye wall and managed to make landfall in a very sparesly populated spot of Mexico. But imagine had it hit closer to a city, and with how fast it intensified (85 mph to 200 mph in a day! Another record...) we might not have known just how strong the storm was without the hurricane hunter data.

So next time you're getting jostled a bit on that flight over the mountains, take some solace that it could be much worse -- and NOAA still has a perfect record of safety even after flying through countless hurricanes.




That was crazy flight for sure for those fellas. Remember that actual day well.

Unfortunately no one knows (most of population) about this flight and the folks on-board that plane....because we live in a world of media and entertainment that trumps science and education. And it's not cool, cool is movie stars, actors, the latest trend, who said what on social media, latest scandal...on and on and on. Nobody cares, everyone looking for the next trick, next now moment.

We are too small a minority that are interested in this stuff, probably always will be, we will never reach the masses out there. They're brainwashed, looking outside at this moment people on their phones looking at social media, it might take one hellava fall for man to finally wake up.... and it might be needed.
Quoting 10. thetwilightzone:



yep it most be you has it works this find for me


Thanks Taz. It works for me now after powering down and back up.
Someone has created a Badlands account to help fill the Twitter void.
Badlands Nat'l Park:
@BadlandsNPS_

“Truth is like the sun. You can shut it out for a time, but it ain't going away.




Badlands Nat'l Park:
‏@BadlandsNPS_

The Badlands were created over eons through the gradual erosion of sediment. The erosion of U.S. democracy, however, will be far more rapid.

Quoting 246. no1der:


These tweets are no longer there:





Quoting 230. gr8lakebreeze:

The Badlands National Park twitter feed has gone rouge, follow to support!
If, as Dr. Emanuel theorizes, climate change is making the worst cyclones both more difficult to forecast, and more frequent and severe, how much more exponentially difficult will it be to know whether and when and where they might affect the US once research money is pulled? Once forecast computers are mothballed? Once the hurricane hunter planes are grounded? Once weather/climate satellites are forced to look elsewhere? Once scientists are silenced by some capricious presidential fiat?
And while the current Blog examples cite to Atlantic Basin hurricanes, we will also have to keep an eye on storm intensity issues in the South Pacific/Indian Ocean basins (south of the Equator) during their austral Summers in the coming decades in terms of frequency and majors:



Combined image of all basins
Interesting; thanks, Doc. What an intense video - I would be afraid to go back through the eyewall again.
Re-post from near the end of the last blog:

It seems to me that websites and groups such as this one will become even more important in the future as collecting points for citizen scientists and citizen science. Distributed science, on the model of the distributed computing projects like SETI, can make an enormous contribution possible by knowledgeable and dedicated citizen scientists, whose observations and records of events in Nature can support the professionals whose funds and staffing will suffer under the budget cuts and shift in focus of the government. Science Underground!
CA snowpack currently sitting at 191% of normal for this date, with 100 stations reporting.
Snow Water Equivalents
Quoting 19. oldnewmex:

Interesting; thanks, Doc. What an intense video - I would be afraid to go back through the eyewall again.


Just watched the video; nerves of steel for the Pilots and crew and they trust those older P-3 Orions to get them in and out.................God Bless those folks (and all the Hunters including the AF crews).
President Trump institutes media blackout at EPA
By Michael Biesecker and John Flesher ASSOCIATED PRESS JANUARY 24, 2017

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration has instituted a media blackout at the Environmental Protection Agency and barred staff from awarding any new contracts or grants, part of a broader communications clampdown within the executive branch.

The prohibitions came to light Tuesday as the agency moved to delay implementation of at least 30 environmental rules finalized in the closing months of President Obama’s term, a potential first step to seeking to kill the regulations.


A summary of the actions posted in the Federal Register includes a long list of regulations that include updated air pollution rulings for several states, renewable fuel standards and limits on the amount of formaldehyde that can leach from wood products. President Trump signed a directive shortly after his inauguration on Friday ordering a ‘‘regulatory freeze pending review’’ for all federal agency rules that had been finalized that have not yet taken effect.

E-mails sent to EPA staff and reviewed by the Associated Press also detailed specific prohibitions banning press releases, blog updates, or posts to the agency’s social media accounts.

The administration has also ordered what it called a temporary suspension of all new business activities at the department, including issuing task orders or work assignments to EPA contractors. The orders were expected to have a significant and immediate impact on EPA activities nationwide. EPA contracts with outside vendors for a wide array of services, from engineering and research science to janitorial supplies.


Similar orders barring external communications have been issued in recent days by the Trump administration at other federal agencies, including the departments of Transportation, Agriculture and Interior.

Staffers in EPA’s public affairs office are instructed to forward all inquiries from reporters to the Office of Administration and Resources Management.


‘‘Incoming media requests will be carefully screened,’’ one directive said. ‘‘Only send out critical messages, as messages can be shared broadly and end up in the press.’’

A review of EPA websites and social media accounts, which typically include numerous new posts each day, showed no new activity since Friday.

White House spokesman Sean Spicer said Tuesday he had no specific information on the blackout.

‘‘I don’t think it’s any surprise that when there’s an administration turnover, that we’re going to review the policies,’’ Spicer said.

Doug Ericksen, the communications director for Trump’s transition team at EPA, said he expects the communications ban to be lifted by the end of this week.

‘‘We’re just trying to get a handle on everything and make sure what goes out reflects the priorities of the new administration,’’ Ericksen said.

Beyond what was stated in the internal email, Ericksen clarified that the freeze on EPA contracts and grants won’t apply to pollution cleanup efforts or infrastructure construction activities. The agency later said it would also seek to complete that review by Friday.

State agencies that rely on EPA for funding were left in the dark, with both Democratic and Republican officials saying they had received no information from EPA about the freeze.

‘‘We are actively seeking additional information so we can understand the impact of this action on our ability to administer critical programs,’’ said Alan Matheson, executive director of Utah Department of Environmental Quality.

Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer of New York said the Trump administration should immediately reverse the media blackout and contracting freeze.

‘‘This decision could have damaging implications? for communities across New York state and the country, from delaying testing for lead in schools to restricting efforts to keep drinking water clean to holding up much-needed funding to revitalize toxic brownfield sites,’’ Schumer said.

The executive director for the advocacy group Public Employees for Environmental Responsibility, Jeff Ruch, said the orders go beyond what has occurred in prior presidential transitions.

‘‘We’re watching the dark cloud of Mordor extend over federal service,’’ Ruch said Tuesday, referring to the evil kingdom in the epic fantasy ‘‘The Lord of the Rings.’’

Ruch noted that key posts at EPA have not yet been filled with Republican appointees, including Trump’s nominee for EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt. That means there are not yet the new senior personnel in place to make decisions.

Environmentalists said the orders were having a chilling effect on EPA staff already suffering from low morale. Trump and Pruitt have both been frequent critics of the agency and have questioned the validity of climate science showing that the Earth is warming and man-made carbon emissions are to blame.

Staff at the Agriculture Department’s Agricultural Research Service also received orders not to issue any news releases, photos, fact sheets and social media posts. After an email of the order leaked to the media, the agency said it would rescind the memo.

At the Transportation Department, employees received an e-mail message Monday morning that was ‘‘broadly worded and hard to interpret,’’ but which appeared to be a directive not to issue any news releases or post to social media, according to a DOT employee who wasn’t authorized to speak publicly and spoke on condition of anonymity.

‘‘Everybody’s being very cautious,’’ the employee said.

The AP reported over the weekend that staff employees at the Interior Department were temporarily ordered to stop making posts to its Twitter account after the official account of the National Park Service retweeted a pair of photos that compared those gathered for Trump’s inauguration with the much larger crowd that attended Obama’s swearing-in.

Trump later falsely claimed that more than 1 million people attended his inauguration, which Spicer insisted was the most watched in history.

In a test of what the new administration will tolerate, the official Twitter account of the Badlands National Park published a series of posts Tuesday accurately quoting climate science data that included the current record-setting high concentrations of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.

The tweets were soon deleted.


Intensity forecasts have been improving slightly, not deteriorating. Isn't global warming supposed to be already affecting hurricanes? Apparently intensity forecasting is getting improvements enough to gain ground against irregularities that get increased by climate change.
Thanks to Trump, Scientists Are Planning to Run For Office
And they’ve got help.

Darren Hauck / Getty

ED YONG 7:00 AM ET


For American science, the next four years look to be challenging. The newly inaugurated President Trump, and many of his Cabinet picks, have repeatedly cast doubt upon the reality of human-made climate change, questioned the repeatedly proven safety of vaccines. Since the inauguration, the administration has already frozen grants and contracts by the Environmental Protection Agency and gagged researchers at the US Department of Agriculture. Many scientists are asking themselves: What can I do?

And the answer from a newly formed group called 314 Action is: Get elected.

The organization, named after the first three digits of pi, is a political action committee that was created to support scientists in running for office. It’s the science version of Emily’s List, which focuses on pro-choice female candidates, or VoteVets, which backs war veterans. “A lot of scientists traditionally feel that science is above politics but we’re seeing that politics is not above getting involved in science,” says founder Shaughnessy Naughton. “We’re losing, and the only way to stop that is to get more people with scientific backgrounds at the table.”

Naughton, a chemist by training and a former breast cancer researcher, ran for Congress herself in 2014 and 2016, but lost both times in Pennsylvania’s Democratic primaries. She puts those losses down to her inexperience with politics and her outsider status, which locked her out of traditional donor circles. In creating 314 Action, she hopes to provide other scientists with the money and mentorship that would have helped her. “Partly, we’re making the case for why they should run—and Donald Trump is really helping us with that,” she says. “Then, we’re showing them how to run, and introducing them to our donor network.”

Early signs are promising. In just two weeks, more than 400 people have signed up to the recruitment form on the organization’s site. They include Jacquelyn Gill from the University of Maine, who studies how prehistoric climate change shaped life on the planet. “If you’d told me a year ago that I would consider running for office, I would have laughed,” she says. “I always fantasized about serving an administration in an advisory capacity, but we now have explicitly anti-science people in office and in the Cabinet. Waiting passively for people to tap me for my expertise won’t be enough.”

“What I really want to know is: Can I do this without abandoning my career in science?”
Since the election, many scientists have made forays into politics, from signing open letters to marching in open protest. “I think most scientists view their work as pure and noble, and politics as a dirty game. It’s almost like selling out or going to the dark side,” says Frances Colón, who until recently was Deputy Science and Technology Adviser to the Secretary of State. But, since Trump’s victory, “many more scientists are realizing why their voices are needed. I’ve had numerous coffees with people who are considering ways to run.”


Even if only a few are successful, they would significantly bolster the limited numbers of Congressional representatives with scientific backgrounds. A few have undergraduate degrees in science, including Seth Moulton (D-MA; physics), Jacky Rosen (D-NV; computer science), and Louise Slaughter (D-NY; microbiology). Others have doctoral degrees: mathematician Jerry McNerney (D-CA), psychologist Timothy Murphy (R-PA), and physicist Bill Foster (D-Il), who once said that he “inherited the family's recessive gene for adult-onset political activism.”

“I think government works better when we have people with lots of professional backgrounds,” says Kate Knuth, who trained in environmental science and served three terms in the Minnesota House of Representatives between 2006 and 2012. “Scientists bring a unique perspective in how they look at data and think about problems. They’re trained to value evidence, and to change their minds in the face of evidence. Right now, in a lot of our governance, we have people who just say this is the way it is, in the face of huge evidence to the contrary. That makes it hard to make good policy.”

“If you believe that the scientific method alone is going to solve the world’s problems, I don’t think you’re going to be a good politician.”
It is perhaps unsurprising that scientists are so poorly represented in government. Younger researchers—perhaps the demographic most eager to leave the ivory tower for the halls of congress—also face the steepest costs for abandoning academia. Scientific careers are built on continuity and perseverance: Years as a graduate student give way to years in postdoctoral positions, which bleed into professorships. If you step away, it can be hard to step back.

“My role models did good science, rose up the ranks, and then went to serve our country,” says Gill, referring to people like Jane Lubchenco, who was Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration under Barack Obama. “In an ideal world, I’d do this from the comfort of being a full professor. And yet, it’s not something I feel can wait. What I really want to know is: Can I do this without abandoning my career in science?”


Even if scientists do decide to run, they face an intense culture-shock. “In science, your colleagues want to know you have expertise and approach problems through legitimate methods,” says Knuth. “In politics, people first want to know that you care about them and their problems before they care about whether or not you have realistic answers. Those are very different values.”

“They seem to be some of the least likely people to be thinking about running for office,” adds Joe Trippi, a political strategist and campaign manager. “They haven’t been spending the last 16 years planning their run for Congress. You have to help them understand how you run a campaign, get seed money, find a campaign manager, put a team together.”

That’s where 314 Action comes in. With over 80,000 donors and mentors including Trippi and climate scientist Michael Mann, Naughton hopes that it will help scientists to make good on any newfound political ambitions. To start, they are scheduling a webinar for March 14th—Pi Day, naturally—to go over the basics of successful campaigning. Following that, they’ll focus on boosting particular strong candidates.

“In my interactions with them, I’ve had my eyes opened,” says Gill. “There’s all this insider knowledge. And to be told that if you decide to run, you’d have support and financial backing, is tremendously empowering.”

For now, 314 Action will only back Democratic candidates. I wonder if that risks turning science into yet another partisan issue, but Naughton argues that it is already on that road. “When we’re talking about climate change, there’s a clear distinction between the two parties,” she says. Knuth agrees. “It’s hard to say if it would politicize science even more than it already has been,” she says. And at the very least, if 314 Action succeeds, it would expose congressional representatives from both parties to a scientific mindset.

Knuth also argues that this shouldn’t just be about shoving science into government, as if the former will save the latter. It works in reverse too. “When I ran, I spent two to four hours a day, five to six days a week, knocking on doors and listening to people,” she says. “I never felt like I knew more about how people were thinking about the problems in their community, what they wanted from government, and their hopes and dreams for the future. Is that scientific information? No. Is it vetted through peer review? No. But it was invaluable. Scientists need to learn and appreciate the value of other ways of knowing about how the world works.”

“If you believe that the scientific method alone is going to solve the world’s problems, I don’t think you’re going to be a good politician,” she adds. “A politician’s job is to understand how the world works and then make hard decisions about how we should move forward together. Evidence can make those decisions better and it helps us to understand the consequences of different decisions. But it doesn’t tell us what the right decision is.”

Rain and Snow Totals last 6 days in Soo Cal from MWS San Diego

Link
Thanks, Dr. Masters!

I'm thinking that improving track forecasts are also a key to saving lives from most rapidly intensifying hurricanes in the future. Take for example 48-h forecast, which has got its error diminished by some 80% in 45 years. If this trend would continue, in year 2105, the average error would be some 2.5 nautical miles. And the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes, like Wilma and Patricia, have very small radii of maximum winds. So basically it could become possible to evacuate people from the path of major hurricane winds not by looking at official forecast intensity, but by looking at the maximum potential intensity. The area needing to be evacuated would be small, the distance needed for evacuees to travel to safety would be short, and they could return within a day or so, if RI and major damage wouldn't occur.

Also, I wish, that by 2100 (much earlier, if possible) there would be a flotilla of vessels pumping deep cold seawater to surface within the forecast cone. Improved track forecast alone would enable the better positioning of such flotilla, better determining the need of such flotilla to be deployed, as well as give more time.

Quoting 17. Neapolitan:

If, as Dr. Emanuel theorizes, climate change is making the worst cyclones both more difficult to forecast, and more frequent and severe, how much more exponentially difficult will it be to know whether and when and where they might affect the US once research money is pulled? Once forecast computers are mothballed? Once the hurricane hunter planes are grounded? Once weather/climate satellites are forced to look elsewhere? Once scientists are silenced by some capricious presidential fiat?


In the unlikely case, that politicians cause hurricane forecasting to devolve in the USA (after all, I've heard only of climate deniers, not of hurricane deniers, lol), other countries will continue to improve their models. And if budget cuts would become so severe as to necessitate the transfer of RSMC duties away from Miami, there could be RSMC Mexico City. Actually the transfer of responsibilities about EPac hurricanes could already make sense, since Mexico is the most affected country. Or alternatively, there could be RSMC Havana, to bring hurricane forecasting back to where it started, lol.
How soon many groups and individuals forget about the previous administration mandates of gag orders of the NWS and NOAA and other organizations. The previous administration had for 8 years the full approval for science and MSM and no one was allowed to disagree. Science is not always about facts for one group but also 2 sided peer reviewed study, but more importantly the funding of there studies and Institutions. Now the new administration has begun enforcing there policies and whatever they do is wrong in the eyes of the past scientific community and the one sided press. Many groups and individuals that have been silenced by the past administration, whether right or wrong now have the right to speak out and many don't like it.
About Patricia: How much difference would there be if Patricia only strengthened to 120 MPH instead of 205 in 24 hours? During all the time Patricia was a major hurricane,

How much difference would there have been if Patricia made landfall with 200-plus MPH wind instead of 150?

From the time Patricia became a major hurricane through the time its intensity peaked, the maximum radius of hurricane force sustained wind was generally 30 miles. The intensity changes seem to have been inside this area. A change between 150 and 200-plus MPH seems to be confined to a smaller area, and most things that can't survive 200-plus MPH also can't survive 150.

Even when the forecast was only to intensify to 120 MPH in 24 hours, the forecast was for intensification to continue after that until landfall, to at least 125 MPH. Winds that strong or stronger were confined to a small area (subset of 30 mile maximum radius from center) at all times and much stronger winds were confined to an even smaller area, so a botched intensity forecast only affected a very small area.

The rapid intensifications that get forecast poorly happen in small storms. Large storms for example Katrina change intensity more slowly and their changes are easier to predict. Even in large storms, any Category 4 let alone any Category 5 winds are confined to an area a fraction of the size of the area getting Category 1-plus winds. I think a bigger problem is extent of Category 3-plus winds, and I don't think that changes much if a storm already predicted to become a major hurricane by a large margin intensifies more than forecast, even a lot more than forecast.
Poor folks. Wildfires/extreme drought in Central/Southern Chile (see also comment 278. on the previous Cat.6 blog), and now floods and mudslides in N Chile:

Torrential rains leave hundreds stranded in Chile
Yahoo News - 6 h ago.

Three Chilean firefighters die amid efforts to contain wildfires
PressTV - 7 h ago.
According to CONAF, some 2,808 fires have hit Chilean forests since July, 2016, burning a total of about 550,000 acres (221,000 hectares) of land, a large spike over previous years.

Meanwhile:
Impressive Coastal Floods Recorded in Havana, Cuba (w/photos)
Escambray - January 24.
Notice on the photo section of wunderground about discontinuing photos, etc... FAQ section too. Sorry to see it go.
Quoting 29. frank727:

How soon many groups and individuals forget about the previous administration mandates of gag orders of the NWS and NOAA and other organizations. The previous administration had for 8 years the full approval for science and MSM and no one was allowed to disagree. Science is not always about facts for one group but also 2 sided peer reviewed study, but more importantly the funding of there studies and Institutions. Now the new administration has begun enforcing there policies and whatever they do is wrong in the eyes of the past scientific community and the one sided press. Many groups and individuals that have been silenced by the past administration, whether right or wrong now have the right to speak out and many don't like it.

This is the same pile of nonsense with which you closed out the previous blog entry, and it's no more true here than it was there. The thing is, the last administration imposed no "gag orders" on scientists. The last administration ordered no removals of scientific research papers from the archives. The last administration didn't delete government web pages that were based on scientific fact. The last administration didn't appoint ideologues to run vitally important departments, the very departments those ideologues had spent years trying to shut down. The last administration wasn't run by a president who constantly demonized science and scientists. The last administration didn't believe that drinkable water, breathable air, and safe water were only for the plutocracy.

I could--obviously--go on and on, but I won't, and instead I'll just say this: lay off the "Trump's only doing what Obama did" garbage. Such "alternative facts" have no place in a science forum such as this.

TIA...
Because CO2 has an electrical complexity the answer is yes--assuming the new GOES doesn't catch up to this complexity and follow the electrical currents involved and indirectly get there.
Scuse me, I hafta go put on my Wed's deep,dish derp Waders.


Lawdy'..


BTW' scientists in Brazil are also on the run due to economic mismanagement and current funding cuts; perhaps a pre-cursor to what may happen here in the US if research grants and such are severely curtailed:

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/01/faci ng-doomsday-scenario-scientists-consider-fleeing-b razil


Two years ago, Fernanda De Felice was at the top of her game. The biochemist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ) in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, was developing a nonhuman primate model for Alzheimers disease and publishing in top journals. But since then, a state budget crisis has cut off all public funding for her work. In March, De Felice will decamp to Canada for a 2-year stint at Queens University in Kingston, leaving her husband and main collaborator, UFRJ professor Sergio Ferreira, to shuttle between Rio and Kingston. "not what I wanted, but its what I had to do,De Felice says. Staying in Brazil would mean the end of my career. Thousands of other scientists in the state of Rio de Janeiro, which includes Rio, Brazil's second biggest city, and many key research institutions, face a similar struggle. Declining federal support for science in cash-strapped Brazil had sapped funds for scholarships and lab infrastructure. Now, Rio de Janeiros funding agency, FAPERJ, is bankrupt. It has fallen $150 million behind on grant payments and over 2 years has cut off funds to 3670 research projects. Last year, it devoted most of its spending $30 million to graduate scholarships. Science funding faces similar threats in other Brazilian states.

A massive brain drain is a real risk, scientists warn. I know a lot of people who want to leave, says Stevens Rehen, a stem cell researcher at UFRJ and the Institute for Research and Education. Compounding the poverty, he says, is a despair that permeates the scientific community. This is affecting an entire generation of scientists. Rehen has kept his lab running on cash accumulated before 2015, and his team has published several papers in recent months. However, he says, I've burned all the fat that we had left. [ FAPERJ owes him more than $475,000, and last year he lost three post docs: one to Poland, one to the United States, and another to the private sector.
Forecasting v.s. vulnerability.

Forecasting will be more difficult as temperature variables rise to rare levels. That is not related to vulnerability.

People who can not evacuate can not leave when a tropical storm becomes a CAT-3 hurricane. Katrina showed that. Homes built in flood zones will flood when winds get bad enough.

Home not built for CAT-1 hurricanes can not be re-forced to CAT-2 even *IF* a miracle two week accurate forecast was made that a CAT-2 hurricane is to hit at these spots.

Until global warming is fixed, be prepared. Even after that - be prepared.
Quoting 32. marynell:

Notice on the photo section of wunderground about discontinuing photos, etc... FAQ section too. Sorry to see it go.


Sad to see WU photos go away, blogs are probably not far behind.
Just out - from JTWC:

ABIO10 (Indian Ocean)
Issued at 25/1800Z

(...) (...) (...)


(comment edited for clarity; see http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ (Australian Gov. Bureau of Meteorology / Western Australia Warnings Summary) for the most relevant, up-to-date info)

- Satellite imagery:
BOM / Satellite imagery.
RAMMB-CIRA / Himawari-8.
NOAA / Tropical Floaters.
Quoting 29. frank727:

How soon many groups and individuals forget about the previous administration mandates of gag orders of the NWS and NOAA and other organizations. The previous administration had for 8 years the full approval for science and MSM and no one was allowed to disagree. Science is not always about facts for one group but also 2 sided peer reviewed study, but more importantly the funding of there studies and Institutions. Now the new administration has begun enforcing there policies and whatever they do is wrong in the eyes of the past scientific community and the one sided press. Many groups and individuals that have been silenced by the past administration, whether right or wrong now have the right to speak out and many don't like it.



I believe you're talking apples and oranges. First the NWS and NOAA were not under any gag orders however there were orders from administration officials, not Obama personally, to not speak with media, but were to refer them to others. This is much different than telling employees they cannot speak on social media
Quoting 33. Neapolitan:

This is the same pile of nonsense with which you closed out the previous blog entry, and it's no more true here than it was there. The thing is, the last administration imposed no "gag orders" on scientists. The last administration ordered no removals of scientific research papers from the archives. The last administration didn't delete government web pages that were based on scientific fact. The last administration didn't appoint ideologues to run vitally important departments, the very departments those ideologues had spent years trying to shut down. The last administration wasn't run by a president who constantly demonized science and scientists. The last administration didn't believe that drinkable water, breathable air, and safe water were only for the plutocracy.

I could--obviously--go on and on, but I won't, and instead I'll just say this: lay off the "Trump's only doing what Obama did" garbage. Such "alternative facts" have no place in a science forum such as this.

TIA...


Just more denial of the facts that you and others can't except. You have to have your irrational way of thinking to support the failed administrations of the past. This one sided redirect has gotten you and others exposed to the fraud of climate change. You can't talk about climate change unless you include geo-engineering of the planet which has been going on as long as we have had the EPA and other organizations.
I am going to speak "Frankly."

Derp, deep, derp.

Extraordinary claims,need extraordinary evidence.

You have ZERO.

Try the Oranges,..they good I hear.




Quoting 29. frank727:

How soon many groups and individuals forget about the previous administration mandates of gag orders of the NWS and NOAA and other organizations. The previous administration had for 8 years the full approval for science and MSM and no one was allowed to disagree. Science is not always about facts for one group but also 2 sided peer reviewed study, but more importantly the funding of there studies and Institutions. Now the new administration has begun enforcing there policies and whatever they do is wrong in the eyes of the past scientific community and the one sided press. Many groups and individuals that have been silenced by the past administration, whether right or wrong now have the right to speak out and many don't like it.



Care to link your data showing Obama issued a gag order similar to the one Trump did? Or are your facts in the same vault where all those 3-5 million illegal voters are hidden?
Sounds like the spirit of Tesla is alive and well...............................
A very very rare post from me as I use this site mainly as a learning tool.

However, I have to say I have gladly lived in free world were people have been allowed to post info they have, wither I choose to believe it or not, is not the point here. It is a dangerous step that is underway now. Regardless of anyones point of view surely this should be a red flag.

As a scientist I want to be able to view all the data and read all the differing opinions. I feel that is my right and I am surprised that any one would want to have any info removed or subdued - history should demonstrate the danger of this approach.
Another El nino is possible.
NASA - Images of Change

Real facts don't lie.
Dan Satterfield's latest blog: Smokey Goes Rogue!

"As Smokey would say, where there is smoke, there just might be fire!"
39. 999Ai2016
- Just out:

ABIO10 (Indian Ocean)
Issued at 25/1800Z


from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth..

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low located at 16.3S 125.8E or 420 km east northeast of Broome and 320 km west of Kununurra has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

A tropical low is moving west southwest across the northern Kimberley and is expected to move offshore from the west Kimberley coast this afternoon or this evening. The low will gradually strengthen and may develop into a tropical cyclone late Friday or during Saturday as it continues to track west-southwest to the north of and generally parallel to the Pilbara coast.

Ahead of and prior to the system becoming a tropical cyclone, squally thunderstorms are possible along the west Kimberley and Pilbara coasts.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop in coastal parts between Bidyadanga and Mardie and also on Barrow Island on Friday evening or during Saturday.

Further heavy rainfall and flooding is likely over the Kimberley and a Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watches/Warnings are current. For further details please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/. Heavy rainfall will extend to coastal parts of the Pilbara from Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH has been issued for parts of the Western Australia region from Bidyadanga to Mardie and Barrow Island, including Port Hedland and Karratha

----
forecast to become a category two - tropical cyclone on the Australia tropical cyclone scale in 72 hours.
Quoting 29. frank727:

How soon many groups and individuals forget about the previous administration mandates of gag orders of the NWS and NOAA and other organizations. The previous administration had for 8 years the full approval for science and MSM and no one was allowed to disagree. Science is not always about facts for one group but also 2 sided peer reviewed study, but more importantly the funding of there studies and Institutions. Now the new administration has begun enforcing there policies and whatever they do is wrong in the eyes of the past scientific community and the one sided press. Many groups and individuals that have been silenced by the past administration, whether right or wrong now have the right to speak out and many don't like it.




Say what?
Quoting 52. HadesGodWyvern:



from Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth..

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low located at 16.3S 125.8E or 420 km east northeast of Broome and 320 km west of Kununurra has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west southwest at 10 knots.

A tropical low is moving west southwest across the northern Kimberley and is expected to move offshore from the west Kimberley coast this afternoon or this evening. The low will gradually strengthen and may develop into a tropical cyclone late Friday or during Saturday as it continues to track west-southwest to the north of and generally parallel to the Pilbara coast.

Ahead of and prior to the system becoming a tropical cyclone, squally thunderstorms are possible along the west Kimberley and Pilbara coasts.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h may develop in coastal parts between Bidyadanga and Mardie and also on Barrow Island on Friday evening or during Saturday.

Further heavy rainfall and flooding is likely over the Kimberley and a Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watches/Warnings are current. For further details please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/. Heavy rainfall will extend to coastal parts of the Pilbara from Friday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH has been issued for parts of the Western Australia region from Bidyadanga to Mardie and Barrow Island, including Port Hedland and Karratha

----
forecast to become a category two - tropical cyclone on the Australia tropical cyclone scale in 72 hours.


Thanks for the update, Hades.
Quoting 51. LAbonbon:

Dan Satterfield's latest blog: Smokey Goes Rogue!

"As Smokey would say, where there is smoke, there just might be fire!"


They are my Hero's today.
I am hopeful that as our economy continues to improve so will funding for storm research. Now that I live on the GOM coast the increased probabilities of RI will affect this year's evac plan.
Peace out.
Will be interesting to see if it does in fact get harder. I know there are a lot of opinions on how GW will effect the number of TC's. So far doesn't seem to be a trend either way.

Quoting 41. frank727:



Just more denial of the facts that you and others can't except. You have to have your irrational way of thinking to support the failed administrations of the past. This one sided redirect has gotten you and others exposed to the fraud of climate change. You can't talk about climate change unless you include geo-engineering of the planet which has been going on as long as we have had the EPA and other organizations.

I can't wait until you expose "the denial of the facts" and the "irrational way of thinking" behind the fraud known as gravity. By the way, you seem to be confusing reasoning with science. Reasoning can be done in a closet with the lights turned off. Science requires immersion in nature. "It is what it is" is a far better guide to scientific inquiry than "is it rational".
Anyone here who likes fluid dynamics and how vortex looks with water or air, there's a android game call powder toy on google play.Link
Quoting 16. Xandra:

Someone has created a Badlands account to help fill the Twitter void.
Badlands Nat'l Park:
@BadlandsNPS_


Badlands national park – the new heroes of the resistance
My mom just committed suicide in Palm Coast, Florida at 68. This place has been a home for truth, banter, and good debate for me for years. Lot of respect for so many here. Pray for me, tell your loved ones you love them, overcome bad with good, and may we all do our part in this messed up world to make a difference. Love and truth are two things this world can not do without. May we fight for it.
Quoting 63. DeepSeaRising:

My mom just committed suicide in Palm Coast, Florida at 68. This place has been a home for truth, banter, and good debate for me for years. Lot of respect for so many here. Pray for me, tell your loved ones you love them, overcome bad with good, and may we all do our part in this messed up world to make a difference. Love and truth are two things this world can not do without. May we fight for it.

I'm so sorry to hear that you have lost your mother. You have my deepest sympathy. When I lost my parents It helped me to think; "Nothing is ever really lost, it is only transformed." Stay strong!
Hey DSR. Stay Strong. Prayers for you and yours. MT
66. Ylee
Not to pile on the bad news, but will we(the blogs) be next?? :(((
Quoting 63. DeepSeaRising:

My mom just committed suicide in Palm Coast, Florida at 68. This place has been a home for truth, banter, and good debate for me for years. Lot of respect for so many here. Pray for me, tell your loved ones you love them, overcome bad with good, and may we all do our part in this messed up world to make a difference. Love and truth are two things this world can not do without. May we fight for it.


My sincerest condolences.
@63. DeepSeaRising
How sad. My deep sympathies. May your mother rest in peace, and may God stay with you and your family. Getting old is a hard thing. I often experience this when visiting my old and increasingly sick parents. You need a lot of strength to carry through ...
WU is a strong community. Is incredibly supportive, and has been here for me through tough times. I can not express enough that I appreciate more than these mere words can express the thoughts and prayers of support. Thank you.
Quoting 63. DeepSeaRising:

My mom just committed suicide in Palm Coast, Florida at 68. This place has been a home for truth, banter, and good debate for me for years. Lot of respect for so many here. Pray for me, tell your loved ones you love them, overcome bad with good, and may we all do our part in this messed up world to make a difference. Love and truth are two things this world can not do without. May we fight for it.


God Bless Her and Your Family;

"When the Power of Love Overcomes the Love of Power, the World Will Know Peace"........ Jimi Hendrix
@DeepSeaRising - my thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.
Some news from our current icy blocking high over Central/Western Europe (mind, we got this weather pattern for the second time this winter). Hope it will break down soon, especially as it is now creating just fog and smog in our plains ...

On track for the coldest January in 30 years as arctic ice melt slows jet stream
25/01/2017 By Le News
So far in January temperatures in Switzerland have been below zero for ten days and there is ice floating on Lake Constance. According to SRF Meteo, January hasn't been this cold for 30 years. ...
The recent cold spell could be part of climate change. As higher global temperatures melt ice in the arctic, the temperature differential between cold arctic air and warmer southern air is declining. This impacts on the jet stream, an air current flowing in an easterly direction across Europe. Experts at SRF Meteo think this change might have weakened the jet stream, slowing the movement of the current cold weather system. ...


Detailed synoptic discussion with a lot of maps:
Synoptic guidance - When will the block break down?
Netweather, Published on 24th January 2017 18:29


Current jet stream pattern. From the article above.


Current airmasses.


Ice on Danube River in Bavaria two days ago.
Quoting 63. DeepSeaRising:




Quoting 62. EmsiNasklug:


Badlands national park – the new heroes of the resistance


The rogue Twitter accounts are multiplying...

Rogue NASA
AltNASA
AltEPA
AltUSNatParkService
Trump's 'control-alt-delete' on climate change policy
BBC, By Matt McGrath Environment correspondent, 6 hours ago

Trump preparing review of Paris deal, other treaties: report
The Hill, By Devin Henry - 01/25/17 04:09 PM EST

USDA lifts gag order: report
The Hill, By Paulina Firozi - 01/25/17 08:23 AM EST


Greenpeace activists hang giant 'Resist' banner near White House
And on that note, everyone have a safe weather evening and all our prayers to DSR; as to the recent non-weather related comment, you might want to use your spell-checker next time........................
Quoting 53. Some1Has2BtheRookie:




Say what?


These are the alternative facts.
75-Year-Old Woman Survives Wild Tornado Bathtub Ride

“I can’t tell you how high we were. It just felt like someone placed us on the ground.”



KSLA TV
Charlesletta Williams, 75, stands next to the bathtub she sat in during a tornado on Saturday night.
Charlesletta Williams’ head is still spinning from an experience she had Saturday night: Being lifted into the air by a tornado while inside a bathtub where she had sought safety.

Williams, 75, said she had been watching TV with her son, Rickey, in their home in Marion County, Texas, when they heard the roar of the approaching storm.

“I didn’t know what it is, but it started, ‘Woo, woo, woo,’” Williams told local station KSLA-TV.

Her son suggested they seek refuge in the tub ― advice that meteorologists recommend to people without an underground storm shelter, according to The Washington Post. Bathtubs are heavy and tend to be firmly anchored to pipes.

While Williams and her son were crouching inside the tub, it lifted straight up and began spinning around and around, Rickey Williams told KSLA.

“I can’t tell you how high we were. It just felt like someone placed us on the ground,” he said.

A second or two later, they were outside on the ground, sprawled 20 feet away from each other. Rickey Williams said he crawled to his mother, lay across her body to protect her from swirling debris, and asked if she was alive.

“Yes, but I can’t breathe because you’re suffocating me,” he said she told him.

Their home was destroyed. Charlesletta Williams sustained some bruises and scratches, according to local station KYTX.

Charlesletta Williams said she’s grateful to be alive, but wouldn’t want to repeat the experience.

“I’m blessed,” she told KYTX. “I couldn’t live through another one. I’d have a heart attack.”

Marion County residents are holding a fundraiser on Feb. 11 to help the Williamses rebuild, KSLA reports.
Name calling, really, do I lack integrity? Which service did you volunteer for? Been to the mid east, vietnam or the hospital taking care of these who defended your freedom without integrity. You sicken me. Major TROLL ALERT!!!
jazz the poster has been removed pls modify your comment the quote at least
Largest chaff event in a decade in progress. Looks like the war games just started playin' at a whole new level. #PleaseDon'tChaffMe


Quoting 84. SunnyDaysFla:



Who and where?
airforce releasing chaf see it in radar training for something
Quoting 83. Skyepony:

Largest chafe event in a decade in progress. Looks like the war games just started playin' at a whole different level.




Quoting 75. LAbonbon:

The rogue Twitter accounts are multiplying...
Rogue NASA
AltNASA
AltEPA
AltUSNatParkService

From the Rogue NASA account (sad!):

watch we get boom reports later
Booms?

Dropping chaff is never done Supersonic.
Quoting 90. Patrap:

Booms?

Dropping chaff is never done Supersonic.
true but jet fighters chasing around each other do
From The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:

Watch the 2017 Clock announcement live at the Bulletin



The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists will host a live international news conference at 10 a.m. EST/1500 GMT on January 26, 2017, to announce whether the minute hand of the historic “Doomsday Clock” will be adjusted. The decision is made by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board in consultation with the Board of Sponsors, which includes 15 Nobel Laureates.

Factors influencing the 2017 deliberations regarding any adjustment that may be made to the Doomsday Clock include: a rise in strident nationalism worldwide, President Donald Trump’s comments on nuclear arms and climate issues prior to his inauguration on January 20th, a darkening global security landscape that is colored by increasingly sophisticated technology, and a growing disregard for scientific expertise.

In January 2016, the Doomsday Clock’s minute hand did not change, remaining at three minutes before midnight, the closest it has been to midnight since the early days of above-ground hydrogen bomb testing. The Clock was changed in 2015 from five to three minutes to midnight.

Speakers for the Doomsday Clock announcement on January 26, 2017 will include:

Lawrence Krauss, chair, Bulletin Board of Sponsors; director, Origins Project at Arizona State University; and Foundation Professor, School of Earth and Space Exploration and Physics Department, Arizona State University.

Thomas Pickering, Bulletin Board of Sponsors, former US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs (1997-2000) and US Ambassador to the United Nations, the Russian Federation, India, Israel, El Salvador, Nigeria, and Jordan. Ambassador Pickering is currently focused on nonproliferation, most recently the Iran nuclear agreement.

David Titley, Bulletin Science and Security Board, professor of practice at the Pennsylvania State University Department of Meteorology, and founding director, Penn State’s Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk. Dr. Titley is a nationally known expert in the field of climate, the Arctic, and national security, and a retired rear admiral. While serving as Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy, Dr. Titley initiated and led the U.S.Navy's Task Force on Climate Change.

Rachel Bronson, executive director and publisher, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Please join us for this historic announcement; watch it live at thebulletin.org. And don't forget to take the 2017 Clock poll. Let us know what time you think it is.

The 2017 Clock announcement was made possible by the generous support of the Ploughshares Fund.
If they Launched,..we're gonna Launch.

You have 4 minutes to respond.

..tick,tick..

Quoting 91. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

true but jet fighters chasing around each other do


Not in or over civilian Populations in the United States I'm afraid to inform you.


There are offshore GOM/Atl/Pac dedicated airspace tracks for that.

The Air Force has conducted faster-than-sound test flights since 1947, and today most Air Force fighter aircraft are capable of supersonic speed. Consequently, supersonic training flights that simulate actual combat conditions are necessary to ensure the success and survival of aircrews during wartime. However, Air Force procedures require that, whenever possible, flights be over open water, above 10,000 feet and no closer than 15 miles from shore. Supersonic operations over land must be conducted above 30,000 feet or, when below 30,000 feet, in specially designated areas approved by Headquarters United States Air Force, Washington, D.C., and the Federal Aviation Administration.

Public Interest Responsibilities

The Air Force continues to expand its knowledge of sonic boom. Continuing research specifically addresses modeling the generation of a sonic boom and its impact on the environment -- people, domestic animals, wildlife, and historical, unconventional and conventional structures. This research provides the Air Force with tools to mitigate sonic boom disturbances through flight operations planning and land use compatibility planning.
Mark Takano
maybe they practicing for rogue trident missile launches into fla
I believe there was something on the news about exercises from McDill this week. Maybe National Guard, but don't hold me to that. The local news said South Tampa might see more planes.
Re: Posts 83, 89, 90 - can someone please explain a little? Thanks.
Quoting 97. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

maybe they practicing for rogue trident missile launches into fla

You mean the upcoming "two-day charm offensive" from Brexit-UK, lol? Link
Quoting 99. LAbonbon:

Re: Posts 83, 89, 90 - can someone please explain a little? Thanks.

83 is the radar outta south florida, showing the chaff (google it to understand better, it has to do with being able to trick a plane's warfare guidance system into thinking a plane went this way when the plane actually went THAT way)

89 is Keeper suggesting that whatever dropped the chaff may have been flying above the speed of sound, and may have created a sonic boom- and people call 911 when they hear sonic booms- so that's what he meant by a "boom report"

90 is patrap saying "no, whatever dropped the chaff was not flying supersonicly, so there should be no boom reports"
Quoting 97. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

maybe they practicing for rogue trident missile launches into fla



Why would a US or British Trident Sub Launched Missile be Launched at Florida?


That makes zero sense.


Quoting 99. LAbonbon:

Re: Posts 83, 89, 90 - can someone please explain a little? Thanks.


To defend against antiship missiles, navies employed towed or helicopter-borne decoys. Sometimes chaff (strips of foil or clusters of fine glass or wire) would be released in the air to create false radar targets. Defenses included long-range chaff rockets to mask a vessel from the radar of distant ships, close-in quick-blooming chaff flares to confuse active radar homers on missiles, and radar jamming to defeat acquisition and tracking radars and confuse missile seeker systems. For close-in defense, combatant ships were fitted with high-performance, short-range missiles such as the British Seawolf and automatic gun systems such as the U.S. 20-millimetre Phalanx. Advances in missile-defense systems had to keep up with the natural affinity of antiship missiles for stealth technology: the visual and infrared signatures and radar cross sections of Western antiship missiles became so small that relatively minor modifications in shape and modest applications of radar-absorptive materials could make them difficult to detect with radar and electro-optical systems, except at short ranges.
Tampa Composite Radar Loop


Quoting 102. Patrap:




Why would a US or British Trident Sub Launched Missile be Launched at Florida?


That makes zero sense.



last june uk malfunction missile sub launch
This chaff,if it is, is at altitude..and is not Ship launched.
MELBOURNE, Fla. — The Sunday Times of London reported over the weekend that an unarmed ballistic missile launched from a British submarine last June experienced a malfunction and headed toward Florida rather than toward open waters off the coast of Africa.

John McCarthy
10 hrs ago
A Test Launch is never carrying a active warhead.

That was a contractor derived engineering fault.

That Launched happened in the Atlantic testing range....

The chaff we're observing was genesised in the GOM.

Thanks aquak9 and Keep for the explanations.
Quoting 96. aquak9:

Mark Takano


Mark Takano:
@RepMarkTakano

This chart from @NOAAClimate shows atmospheric CO2 levels over the past 400,000 years. How does @realDonaldTrump example this?


Quoting 66. Ylee:

Not to pile on the bad news, but will we(the blogs) be next?? :(((


They simply 'announce it' and give no reason, instead expecting people to be mollified with the cheap gimmick of a survey.

It can't be a storage issue, storage is too cheap to believe compared to back in the early days.

What might be the issue???

...And yes, since the WU is corporate owned, the blog and the history of the blog may be removed in the future, and in fact I would bet that it will, or be so seriously compromised in some fashion that it will be practically unusable.

Someone might want to prepare now.
Quoting 111. MontanaZephyr:



They simply 'announce it' and give no reason, instead expecting people to be mollified with the cheap gimmick of a survey.

It can't be a storage issue, storage is too cheap to believe compared to back in the early days.

What might be the issue???

...And yes, since the WU is corporate owned, the blog and the history of the blog may be removed in the future, and in fact I would bet that it will, or be so seriously compromised in some fashion that it will be practically unusable.

Someone might want to prepare now.


We did. its called the archive.
Quoting 32. 999Ai2016:

*** Erick Fernandes - Turn Down the Heat: Why a 4 C Warmer World Must be Avoided

2015 - Youtube video link
Quoting 8. Patrap:

The Human induced Global Warming continues from burning fossil fuels to run our Global society.

It continues, unabated.

December 2016 CO2 404.48ppm




I realize that it's only two data points, but the suggested rate of increase year over year..... sheesh!

For those that didn't go to the site, the increase in CO2 PPM from Dec. 2015 to Dec 2016 was was 2.63

The difference between Jan 24 2017 and Jan 24 2017 was was 4.24 PPM

The two differences are not identical, in that apparently the first was the average for a whole month while the second is a daily (point, relatively) measure, and so conceivably could be a bit cherry picked, (there might have been an relatively isolated wad of air drifting though from China, say), nonetheless it is not encouraging.

Quoting 96. aquak9:

Mark Takano



This one:
Quoting 111. MontanaZephyr:

It can't be a storage issue, storage is too cheap to believe compared to back in the early days.

Well, they're about to move WU data to another server and another operating system (Drupal). As I write this, the amount of WU photos is 1,962,540 - nearly 2 million! A lot of data to move and reconnect ...
I hope we'll be able to keep our dear avatars at least ...
Quoting 28. elioe:

Thanks, Dr. Masters!

I'm thinking that improving track forecasts are also a key to saving lives from most rapidly intensifying hurricanes in the future. Take for example 48-h forecast, which has got its error diminished by some 80% in 45 years. If this trend would continue, in year 2105, the average error would be some 2.5 nautical miles. And the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes, like Wilma and Patricia, have very small radii of maximum winds. So basically it could become possible to evacuate people from the path of major hurricane winds not by looking at official forecast intensity, but by looking at the maximum potential intensity. The area needing to be evacuated would be small, the distance needed for evacuees to travel to safety would be short, and they could return within a day or so, if RI and major damage wouldn't occur.

Also, I wish, that by 2100 (much earlier, if possible) there would be a flotilla of vessels pumping deep cold seawater to surface within the forecast cone. Improved track forecast alone would enable the better positioning of such flotilla, better determining the need of such flotilla to be deployed, as well as give more time.



In the unlikely case, that politicians cause hurricane forecasting to devolve in the USA (after all, I've heard only of climate deniers, not of hurricane deniers, lol), other countries will continue to improve their models. And if budget cuts would become so severe as to necessitate the transfer of RSMC duties away from Miami, there could be RSMC Mexico City. Actually the transfer of responsibilities about EPac hurricanes could already make sense, since Mexico is the most affected country. Or alternatively, there could be RSMC Havana, to bring hurricane forecasting back to where it started, lol.


There were hurricane deniers. The alt-right/neo-fascists tried to claim that hurricane Matthew was being exaggerated by liberals so that it could be used against them (and hence, Trump).
Quoting 110. Xandra:


Mark Takano:
@RepMarkTakano

This chart from @NOAAClimate shows atmospheric CO2 levels over the past 400,000 years. How does @realDonaldTrump example this?




I think you meant how does he 'explain' it? Easy...he doesn't. Lie, deny, diminish, CO2 is good, 'you've been deceived', the media is horrible, talk about himself... He doesn't have to explain anything, and people eat it up.
Quoting 114. MontanaZephyr:



I realize that it's only two data points, but the suggested rate of increase year over year..... sheesh!

For those that didn't go to the site, the increase in CO2 PPM from Dec. 2015 to Dec 2016 was was 2.63

The difference between Jan 24 2017 and Jan 24 2017 was was 4.24 PPM

The two differences are not identical, in that apparently the first was the average for a whole month while the second is a daily (point, relatively) measure, and so conceivably could be a bit cherry picked, (there might have been an relatively isolated wad of air drifting though from China, say), nonetheless it is not encouraging.



Umm, this is not making sense to me. Do you need to edit it?
With the EPA das Kaput now....

I can't wait to go back to Pumping Ethyl.








hoo boy....
maybe I should change my name to ALTaquak9...
Quoting 118. LAbonbon:


I think you meant how does he 'explain' it? Easy...he doesn't. Lie, deny, diminish, CO2 is good, 'you've been deceived', the media is horrible, talk about himself... He doesn't have to explain anything, and people eat it up.

It isn't my words. It's Mark Takano's. He wrote "example". I just copy and paste ;)


Two more tweets from him:

Mark Takano:
‏@RepMarkTakano

Since our fed agencies are no longer allowed to...I want to share some climate change facts that @realDonaldTrump doesn't want you to see.


Mark Takano:
‏@RepMarkTakano

This chart shows global sea ice levels since 1978. On Jan 14, the total sea ice extent was at lowest level since satellite records began.




Quoting 120. Patrap:

With the EPA das Kaput now....

I can't wait to go back to Pumping Ethyl.









The Ethyl Corporation in Richmond VA is probably even more anxious than you are! They had to diversify when tetraethyl lead was banned. Haven't been the same since.
I've had my disagreements with Obama, but he never once used the government to censor scientific facts.

Science organizations and funding for science is a critical role for the government, since after all, one of the roles of government is to provide public safety. The federal government censoring science research and controlling what can be allowed and what can't is VERY dangerous new territory by the government. The sad thing is, most people who supported Trump don't realize how much more socialist and dictator-like that is than anything Obama did during his 8 years in office.

I rest my case.
Quoting 119. RedwoodCoast:




Perhaps I looked at the data wrongly? (Not a professional scientist here, just a stray citizen fond of 'old-style' facts, and a born weather-nut, whom, when he got to college simply could not abide the reduction of the magic and mystery and awesomeness of weather to something as heartless as what mathematics seemed to be at the time.

Here is a link to the CO2 data page that Patrap posted earlier this evening;have a look at the data yourself.


Daily CO2

January 24, 2017: 407.69 ppm

January 24, 2016: 403.45 ppm
December CO2

December 2016: 404.48 ppm

December 2015: 401.85 ppm

Quoting 75. LAbonbon:


The rogue Twitter accounts are multiplying...

Rogue NASA
AltNASA
AltEPA
AltUSNatParkService


Quoting 120. Patrap:

With the EPA das Kaput now....

I can't wait to go back to Pumping Ethyl.











I knew a lady named Ethyl.

global warming, my foot. globalists trying to ram this down our throats to serve their own agenda. period!
Quoting 129. columbusne:

global warming, my foot. globalists trying to ram this down our throats to serve their own agenda. period!

Just for fun: What agenda would that be, exactly?
"globalists" --??

So I guess only people born on CONUS soil matter, and everyone else on the planet (errrr, globe?) doesn't matter?

I wanna hear all about THIS religion. Lawdahmercie...

Yeah I guess we're supposed to all mind our own business and not work together cause you know... we have an unlimited supply of natural resources.
AltNWS @AlternativeNWS

The tweets are primarily concern for climate data, and the possibility that webpages for the public will soon no longer be available.

Columbia Law School, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law:

Climate Deregulation Tracker

President-elect Donald Trump has stated that he intends to undo most or all of the Obama administration’s efforts to address climate change. The Sabin Center has launched this tracker to identify and explain steps taken by the incoming administration to scale back or wholly eliminate federal climate mitigation and adaptation measures. The tracker will also monitor congressional efforts to repeal statutory provisions, regulations, and guidance pertaining to climate change, and to otherwise undermine climate action.

Our Center has also compiled a database of existing U.S. climate change regulations, which will be updated in tandem with the deregulation tracker. The database is organized by agency and topic, and includes links to archived versions of proposed and final regulations as well as technical support documents, regulatory impact analyses, agency guidance, and other relevant resources.
Quoting 127. no1der:






They have "alternative facts"
To avoid a soul-withering combination of envy, awe, and reverence, real storm-chasers should NOT click on the following link:

A woman flew through a tornado in a bathtub and survived
Quoting 139. MontanaZephyr:



suck zone float like a feather amid a roar
should buy a lottery ticket
could be lucky
Quoting 128. Qazulight:



I knew a lady named Ethyl.




Was she on the "I love Lucy" tv show?

I'm waiting for leaded gas and high sulfur diesel to come back...
Looks like anyone and everyone is calling this Scientific American guest blog a 'must read':

The War on Facts is a War on Democracy
In a time when facts don’t matter, and science is being muzzled, American democracy is the real victim

By Jonathan Foley on January 25, 2017

excerpt:

So, to Mr. Trump, I would say this:

If this is all just a series of missteps, caused by over-zealous mid-level managers during a confusing presidential transition, so be it. Say so. Fix it. Get out on the public stage and affirm your commitment to facts, to truth, and to the independent pursuit of science without political interference. The vast majority of your fellow Americans would applaud you for this. It would be brave. It would be wise. And it would show some class.

But if this is actually part of your governing philosophy, I would give you a warning on behalf of my fellow scientists: Do not mess with us. Do not try to bury the truth. Do not interfere with the free and open pursuit of science. You do so at your peril.

Americans don’t look kindly on bullies, people who try to suppress the truth, or people who try to intimidate scientists and the press. In the long run, this always backfires. The dustbin of history is full of people who have tried, and failed. You will too.

The next time you visit the CIA headquarters, I hope you will take a moment to notice their unofficial motto, etched in the walls of the lobby. It says, “And ye shall know the truth and the truth shall make you free." (John VIII-XXXII.)
Quoting 116. barbamz:


Well, they're about to move WU data to another server and another operating system (Drupal). As I write this, the amount of WU photos is 1,962,540 - nearly 2 million! A lot of data to move and reconnect ...
I hope we'll be able to keep our dear avatars at least ...

They are doing away with the photos. No more uploads after Feb 28th and you have until June something to download your photos before they are all dumped.
Quoting 127. no1der:






I'm glad this isn't an official NASA account. You had me worried at first.
From the Abingdon manuscript copy of Beowulf, 1057 AD

Fela sceal gebidan
leofes ond laþes se þe longe her
on ðyssum windagum worolde bruceð.

Much must he endure
of love and hate, who long here
in these days of strife enjoys the world.
Quoting 127. no1der:







Truth is always gonna Trump the ignorant. NASA is brililant,..and the rest of the Federal Resistance to "Duh".

We are leaning forward,together.

Fascism won't last long .

We Veterans have a much larger plan than #DAPL.




For a government that now will not share its' scientific records, there is always FOIA.
Quoting 135. LAbonbon:

AltNWS @AlternativeNWS

The tweets are primarily concern for climate data, and the possibility that webpages for the public will soon no longer be available.




The neo-fascist can try, but there are already active projects preserving science information, web sites, etc. I'm an active participant. Being a software engineer has its advantages.

Going to have to boost my RAID though. An army of crawlers can fill up disk space pretty quickly. :P
Quoting 152. Xyrus2000:



The neo-fascist can try, but there are already active projects preserving science information, web sites, etc. I'm an active participant. Being a software engineer has its advantages.

Going to have to boost my RAID though. An army of crawlers can fill up disk space pretty quickly. :P


Do you need one of these?
Quoting 151. MrNatural:

For a government that now will not share its' scientific records, there is always FOIA.


Hope it lasts anyway :/ surely another target. He's the right-wingers' dream. So full of himself, he cares not for how things affect others. I don't even think he's choosing, his advisers just bringing him the motions saying, this is what 'they' want. :(
Quoting 154. mitthbevnuruodo:



Hope it lasts anyway :/ surely another target. He's the right-wingers' dream. So full of himself, he cares not for how things affect others. I don't even think he's choosing, his advisers just bringing him the motions saying, this is what 'they' want. :(


You make a valid point.
Xyrus says "The neo-fascists can try..."

Patrap says "Fascism won't last long"

Woody says "All You Fascists Bound To Lose"

(And Xyrus - keep up the good work! And thank you. A lot of us are counting on all you folks that are hard at work preserving and saving the webpages and data.)
It wouldn't surprise me if more was known about electrics and CO2 than is being let on and the target for the censorship is the new GOES mission which tracks lightning. It's real folks--ray bradbury would turn in his grave. A LOT of gov meta twitter accounts are popping up in defience of the dumpster. Here is what was a working link to the GOES data: http://www.goes-r.gov/widgets/inDepth/images/inDe pthDataProducts
Quoting 131. aquak9:

"globalists" --??

So I guess only people born on CONUS soil matter, and everyone else on the planet (errrr, globe?) doesn't matter?

I wanna hear all about THIS religion. Lawdahmercie...




The religion/cult is called neo-fascism. Some of it's characteristics are nationalism, populism, anti-immigration (soft-core word for racism), pro-deregulation, pro-military, a strong dislike for free press, and an outright hatred for liberal democracies to the point where threats of locking up opposition is a regular theme. Oh, and they have a penchant for "alternative facts".

The alt-right is the "PC" term for neo-fascism.
Some of the #Roguerangers have signed off for the night. I'm headed to bed myself. Goodnight, WU.

RadioEcoshock

Scribblers of Climate Truth

Alex's guest is Risk analyst, published author, & host of Robert Scribbler's Blog. From the worst to glimmers of hope, the hunt for climate truth. Plus 2 short clips: Michael Mann: when money buys anti-science; Jennifer Francis on new Arctic feedback. Radio Ecoshock 170125

Link
Scientists' March on Washington
The responsible application of science to government

What is the Scientists' March on Washington
Welcome! We want to thank you all for your incredible outpouring of support for this march. We are working to schedule a March for Science on DC and across the United States. We have not settled on a date yet but will do so as quickly as possible and announce it here.

Although this will start with a march, we hope to use this as a starting point to take a stand for science in politics. Slashing funding and restricting scientists from communicating their findings (from tax-funded research!) with the public is absurd and cannot be allowed to stand as policy. This is a non-partisan issue that reaches far beyond people in the STEM fields and should concern anyone who values empirical research and science.

There are certain things that we accept as facts with no alternatives. The Earth is becoming warmer due to human action. The diversity of life arose by evolution. Politicians who devalue expertise risk making decisions that do not reflect reality and must be held accountable. An American government that ignores science to pursue ideological agendas endangers the world.

Please bear with us as pull together our mission statement and further details. Many more updates to come on Monday.


Link
Scientists planning their own march in Washington


Their Twitter feed
Santiago (AFP) - Six people -- among them four firefighters and two police -- have now been killed battling vast forest fires in central Chile, officials said.

Chilean Wildfires are Worst to Ever Strike the Country
Drought in Chile has now lasted for more than a ten years.


Yearly precipitation deficits have ranged from 30-70% for most of central Chile for the last decade. But the ongoing drought’s intensity has increased since 2011. The result has been “an unprecedented drought in terms of intensity, spatial and temporal extent.”

Link
Extreme weather has cost Europe more than £330bn and the lives of 85,000 people since the 1980s
‘The scale of future climate change and its impacts will depend on the effectiveness of implementing our global agreements to cut greenhouse gas emissions’

Link
Braving 15-metre high waves on board Antarctica research vessel
Al Jazeera joins 55 scientists who will be conducting 22 science research projects along the way to Antarctica

In the coming hours, we will pass through the Polar front, the area where Antarctica's cold waters well up and push back the warm waters from the north, creating a barrier that is believed to help keep the continent cold.

In the space of a few foggy kilometres, the ocean temperature drops to just 4C. The Polar front is considered to be the point at which we will truly be entering Antarctic waters. At that point, we will be subject to the continent's extreme weather.

It is here that the real expedition begins.


Link
Antarctic bottom waters freshening at unexpected rate
Shift could disturb ocean circulation and hasten sea level rise, researchers say

During the austral summer of 2016, they joined the crew of the research ship R/V Revelle and cruised north from Antarctica to Australia, braving frequent storms to collect samples every 30 nautical miles. In a shipboard lab, they analyzed the samples using data from conductivity-temperature-depth (CTD) sensors, which measure the water's salinity, temperature and other properties, with support from study co-author Courtney Schatzman of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, who processed the raw data.

The team found that the previously detected warming trend has continued, though at a somewhat slower pace. The biggest surprise, however, was its lack of saltiness: AABW in this region has grown fresher four times faster in the past decade than it did between 1994 and 2007.


Link
Florida corals tell of cold spells and dust bowls past, foretell weather to come
Evidence confirms a centuries-old sea temperature cycle linked to rains, droughts and hurricanes

US GEOLOGICAL SURVEY

Link
Good morning abroad.

Just to close this terrible chapter:

All bodies have now been recovered from Italy's avalanche hotel
AFP, news@thelocal.it, 25 January 2017
The bodies of all 29 missing people have been recovered at Italy's avalanche-hit Hotel Rigopiano, local authorities said on Wednesday evening. ...

Video: This is Italy's avalanche hotel one week after the disaster

Last bodies recovered from Italian avalanche hotel
Death toll finalised at 29 as prime minister acknowledges delays and "malfunctioning" in initial rescue effort
AP/The Guardian, Thursday 26 January 2017 08.19 GMT
... The Italian prime minister, Paolo Gentiloni, acknowledged delays and "malfunctioning" in the initial rescue effort, after local authorities brushed off the first alarms about the avalanche. But he told parliament on Wednesday that now was not the time to find scapegoats.
He said more than two metres of snow fell within 72 hours on the isolated hotel, and four earthquakes then struck the region. The ensuing landslide and avalanche dumped more than of 60,000 tons of snow, rocks and uprooted trees on top of the resort, burying 40 people inside. ...


---------------------------

Snow and ice alerts as France 'on brink of forced power cuts'
The Local (France), 26 January 2017, 09:20 CET 01:00
Thursday comes with weather alerts for southern France, as grid operator NTE reveals that the cold has pushed circumstances dangerously close to forced power cuts.
National weather agency Meteo France placed three departments on orange alert on Thursday morning, the second highest warning level, which urges the public to be vigilant.
The departments are Ardeche, Drome, and Vaucluse, all in south-eastern France, and all on alert for snow and black ice on the road. ...
The Trump administration's feud with the National Parks Service is absurd
We’re in for a long four years. Time to go to a National Park, admire the majesty of nature and take a deep breath in the fresh air
The Guardian, Frances Robinson, Thursday 26 January 2017 00.15 GMT
... As one wag on Twitter noted, picking a fight the National Park Service in your first week is “like starting a new job and kicking the office cat to death.” ...

Unofficial "resistance" or "rogue" Twitter accounts are sprouting up, emblazoned with the logos of state agencies
By Steve Gorman, Jan 25 (Reuters)
Employees from more than a dozen U.S. government agencies have established a network of unofficial "rogue" Twitter feeds in defiance of what they see as attempts by President Donald Trump to muzzle federal climate change research and other science. ...
Quoting 160. LAbonbon:

Some of the #Roguerangers have signed off for the night. I'm headed to bed myself. Goodnight, WU.




"NatlParksUnderground"? Looks like it now turns out that the name of our site "Weather Underground" had been prophetic from the outset ;-)
A great profile of what courage looks like , in a time when we all are fumbling for it. The echoes from this time are very familiar in today's world.

AMERICAN EXPERIENCE

Rachel Carson
1:53:11Video duration: 1:53:11 Aired: 01/24/17 Rating: NR Video has closed captioning.
Rachel Carson is an intimate portrait of the woman whose groundbreaking books revolutionized our relationship to the natural world. When Silent Spring was published in September 1962 it became an instant bestseller and would go on to spark dramatic changes in the way the government regulated pesticides.


Link
Watch a Massive Fire Tornado Sweep the Outback

The whirling storm extended more than 3,000 feet into the air.

This "gob-smacking vision of an incredible natural phenomenon" was made on a camera mounted on a Department of Parks and Wildlife fire truck at Watheroo.


Link
NASA joins US scientists rebelling against Trump administration
January 26th, 2017 at 9:03 am - Author Jon Martindale
United States scientists are continuing to defy gag orders from the newly inaugurated U.S. President, Donald Trump and his administration, with now seemingly someone from NASA speaking out online. Using the Twitter account @RogueNASA, one “government employee” is speaking out on climate change and government oversight.

Link
Nicole would've been a much bigger disaster for Bermuda when it RI'd last year had it tracked only slightly farther north when it did, if that happened then the small island would've been hit by the full force of the storm, and it could've even been worse than Fabian of 2003. Matthew, while it RI'd quickly, did so over open water, and Patricia fortunately weakened substantially before it hit a rural stretch of western Mexico.
176. elioe
I finally read the entire study being discussed in this blog post. Perhaps even more interesting results are, that their modelling results showed 75% increase in all Atlantic tropical cyclones and 118% increase in all U.S. landfalling cyclones by the end of this century, given high-end emissions scenario. Although it seems, that their method of generating tropical cyclones from "seeds" excludes any TC that could form from extratropical precursor. So, the increase could be actually even much more.
early birds forecast is definitely easier when the golden flake is sleeping
178. ZRR40
I think more money should be invested in higher density and quality stations and other means of colecting data, further more regardless of the cause of the warming (obvoiusly 2016 the global temperature is the likely the warmest year on record that is since reliable data has been collected) The oceans heat input and the sea surface temps are impresively warm, and the polar winter as well. Remember it seems everyone blamed the record breaking 2004-05' atlantic hurricane season on global warming, next 10 years turned out quite unimpressive. As far as foercasting the seasons go less reliance on models and more studying existing historical, and improved future data. Climate has been changing long before modern times, wouldn't it be amazing to have the data quality we have today to study a hurricane that maybe occurred in semptember 957AD. Coastal areas ideally need to become more natural, you live in or near flood zone that's part of the price. Long story hres modeling as you mentioned is already tricky enough, an ocean/atmosphere that was cooler 25 year ago, logically would only complicate things more, guess that goes for the climate/GFS/EURO/ and the rest, as well...
Gag Order Or Not, Here’s Why Trump Cracking Down On Government Science is So Scary

You may have seen news about a crackdown on communications between USDA (and the EPA, HHS, and Department of the Interior) and the public. In this latest affront, the administration on Monday directed the USDA to stop all "outward-facing" communications. But by Tuesday night, the gag-order had been "rescinded." So what's going on? And what could happen if scientists can't speak to the public?

Modern Farmer
This El-Nino which is about to settle in over the next couple of months could really ramp up from Weak status later this Spring to Moderate or Strong Status by Fall. This could be setting up for a active Spring across the SE US similar to what we just saw last weekend. as the southern jet becomes more dominate.

Infact models in the long range are keying in on another Severe Weather Outbreak across the SE US for February 5th and 6th.

Good Morning All. The Conus forecast for today and current look. The weekly US Drought Monitor for the past week will issue this am at 8:30 and we should see some additional drought relief reflected for So-Cal and the GA/TN/AL Tri-State region going into this Spring in a few months. Last weeks is at the bottom for reference:


Current U.S. Drought Monitor

And patiently awaiting what February, usually the coldest month here in North Florida, will bring.  So far this year, including the period of October 2016 to the present, "Winter" never made it to Florida and the North Gulf States this season with the exception of about 5 days total of am temps in the 30's in North Florida.
Historically, waning/declining El Ninos have caused the most tornado activity in the Alley in the Spring; don't know what the historical stats reflect for an advancing El Nino in the same time period but the current Jet pattern could be a problem in terms of available vorticity in the coming weeks if this type of flow remains in place for any given frontal or low passage event across the South.
Link

To go along with what weathermanwannabe posted, spring has already sprung in north Florida if we're going by first leaf out.
Quoting 185. RunningTrauma:

Link

To go along with what weathermanwannabe posted, spring has already sprung in north Florida if we're going by first leaf out.


Some of the Oaks here in Orlando are fully leafed out already the earliest I've ever seen. As Weatherwannabe said Winter never made to FL this year. Lowest temp at my location is right at 40 so far so not even a 30 degree night here on the NW side of Orlando which might be a record.
Quoting 184. weathermanwannabe:

Historically, waning/declining El Ninos have caused the most tornado activity in the Alley in the Spring; don't know what the historical stats reflect for an advancing El Nino in the same time period but the current Jet pattern could be a problem in terms of available vorticity in the coming weeks if this type of flow remains in place for any given frontal or low passage event across the South.


I've noticed in the past that El-Nino's that seem to be building in tend to lead to stormier weather across the SE US in the Spring especially April/May which in turn shuts down Tornado Alley. 2009 was a perfect example of this especially once all the action began to get focused across the SE US come May. Remember that cut off low that sat over FL for nearly 2 weeks in mid May that year?
One thing I also noticed is the amount of lightning with these storms recently across FL. Unheard of to see over 10,000 strikes like we saw last Sunday here in C FL in January and also from January 7th storm there was nearly 10,000 strikes. Below is a pic from last Sundays' storm here in Orlando by looking at this you would think this was taken during the Rainy Season.

Pic taken at Avolon Park in East Orlando
Environment Pollution in USA on January 26 2017 05:17 AM (UTC). [Magellan Pipeline] Hanlontown , State of Iowa

Emergency responders are dealing with a pipeline leak in Worth County. It reportedly started around 5:30 am Wednesday morning near Hanlontown. Authorities say the Magellan Pipeline has leaked 138,600 gallons of diesel fuel. The Worth County Sheriff's Office, Freeborn County Sheriff's Office, Iowa Department of Natural Resources, Worth/Mitchell County Emergency Management and Freeborn County Emergency Management are on the scene. Worth County Sheriff Dan Fank says there are no health risks at this time but Wheelerwood Road from 390th to 410th Street will be shut down for a couple of days. Magellan Midstream Partners has issued a statement which says they are unsure what caused the 12" pipe to leak. Company representatives, clean-up crews and various regulators and environmental crews were sent to the site. Iowa Department of Natural Resources says 138,600 gallons of diesel fuel leaked in Worth County. Authorities now say the Magellan pipeline ruptured near Hanlontown early this morning. Weather is impacting cleanup efforts. Those with the company say they have experienced pipe breaks before. "There will be a investigation on what caused release and what can be learned from this to try and help us and ensure this doesn't happen again," says Tom Byers, Manager of Government and Media Affairs for Magellan Mainstream Partners. Byers says they will continue clean up efforts and monitor the situation on a 24 hour basis.

Take a look at this AMAZING new drought monitor. It came at a high cost in terms of flood damage across many parts of the US but most of the "reds" are gone in California and the Tri-State region. Incredible turn of events that was really needed in California after about 6 years of persistent "extreme" drought conditions in So-Cal. They are still in drought conditions but this is the first time I have seen such a little chunk of the deep red there in several years.


Current U.S. Drought Monitor
Non-categorized event in USA on January 26 2017 04:48 AM (UTC).

Several people reported hearing two large "bangs" and felt the earth shake just after 3 p.m. Tuesday in San Diego. Military and airport officials deny causing mysterious "booms." "Was there an earthquake that made that big boom at 3:15 p.m.?" Nancy Whitaker posted on Facebook. Santee residents reported seeing a large glowing ball in the western sky. "I automatically thought it was a earthquake, my car started moving back and forth in Imperial Beach!" Laura Reynolds said. "Are we having an earthquake? Our sliders won't stop shaking, but my chair isn't moving and it's not wind," a Coronado resident posted to social media. "I heard it here on the Strand, but didn't feel anything. Sounded like 2 loud bangs, I thought it was thunder. I am curious what it could have been," another Coronado resident posted. USGS did not detect an earthquake in San Diego County during that time. FOX 5 reached out to military officials and law enforcement to see if they had anything to do with the various "strange" reports. "A military aircraft flying in a Military Operations Area over land also could made a sonic boom," Gregor said. MCAS Miramar Capt. Kurt Stahl said they reviewed all tapes with the FAA and was confident that it wasn't caused by their aircraft. "We reviewed all tapes with the FAA and with our fixed-wing squadrons aboard MCAS Miramar, and we can confirm that no aircraft from MCAS Miramar reached supersonic speeds yesterday. Therefore, we can rule out that this noise was caused by an aircraft based out of MCAS Miramar. For additional background, we do not operate our aircraft at supersonic speeds within 30 miles of populated areas. As for those reported today, this is the first I have heard of any today; I am confident that they are not being caused by our aircraft." San Diego International Airport officials said nothing was caused by aircraft arriving and departing.
On that sonic boom issue, and one resident reporting seeing a glowing light in the sky, it sounds like a daytime meteor coming in; they usually do not fly the "experimental" planes out of Tonopah or Groom Lake, which have caused the evening and early am booms we often heard in the in the past on the West coast, during the day.
Quoting 191. Skyepony:

Non-categorized event in USA on January 26 2017 04:48 AM (UTC).

Several people reported hearing two large "bangs" and felt the earth shake just after 3 p.m. Tuesday in San Diego. Military and airport officials deny causing mysterious "booms." "Was there an earthquake that made that big boom at 3:15 p.m.?" Nancy Whitaker posted on Facebook. Santee residents reported seeing a large glowing ball in the western sky. "I automatically thought it was a earthquake, my car started moving back and forth in Imperial Beach!" Laura Reynolds said. "Are we having an earthquake? Our sliders won't stop shaking, but my chair isn't moving and it's not wind," a Coronado resident posted to social media. "I heard it here on the Strand, but didn't feel anything. Sounded like 2 loud bangs, I thought it was thunder. I am curious what it could have been," another Coronado resident posted. USGS did not detect an earthquake in San Diego County during that time. FOX 5 reached out to military officials and law enforcement to see if they had anything to do with the various "strange" reports. "A military aircraft flying in a Military Operations Area over land also could made a sonic boom," Gregor said. MCAS Miramar Capt. Kurt Stahl said they reviewed all tapes with the FAA and was confident that it wasn't caused by their aircraft. "We reviewed all tapes with the FAA and with our fixed-wing squadrons aboard MCAS Miramar, and we can confirm that no aircraft from MCAS Miramar reached supersonic speeds yesterday. Therefore, we can rule out that this noise was caused by an aircraft based out of MCAS Miramar. For additional background, we do not operate our aircraft at supersonic speeds within 30 miles of populated areas. As for those reported today, this is the first I have heard of any today; I am confident that they are not being caused by our aircraft." San Diego International Airport officials said nothing was caused by aircraft arriving and departing.



Meteor airbursting?? That'd be my best guess
From Cate a Scribbler :
A moving article about how the people of a mostly Inuit community on the Labrador coast are adapting to loss of sea ice and the effects of that loss on their traditional culture.

People of the Sea Ice See Cracks Forming
One of Canada’s most northerly communities reinvents its relationship with a thawing landscape.

Jim Andersen was returning home on his snowmobile from a day of ice fishing in May 2014 when he saw the ice coating the river’s mouth break beneath a snowmobile ahead of him. Two villagers were aboard the sinking vehicle, which came to rest more than two meters deep in the frigid water. Andersen circled his snowmobile onto the shore to help. A man, almost fully submerged, was standing on top of the sunken snowmobile, struggling to keep himself and his companion above water and alive. “He was holding the lady up against the ice so she wouldn’t go under,” Andersen says.

Andersen threw the woman a rope, “but she was too weak to haul herself up,” he recalls. So from his snowmobile he unhooked a qamutik (sled) and pushed it onto the ice toward the rupture and climbed on. He pulled the pair, minutes from hypothermia, onto the qamutik, and then onto land and built a fire. The pair huddled close to the flames, warming up as they changed into dry clothes provided by their rescuer. Andersen told me this story last winter as we sat in his kitchen, the soft crackling in the woodstove punctuating the tale. He showed me the plaque that the town’s search and rescue group had awarded him. Late last year, the Canadian government awarded him the governor general’s Medal of Bravery.


Link
Quoting 178. ZRR40:

I think more money should be invested in higher density and quality stations and other means of colecting data, further more regardless of the cause of the warming (obvoiusly 2016 the global temperature is the likely the warmest year on record that is since reliable data has been collected) The oceans heat input and the sea surface temps are impresively warm, and the polar winter as well.


Good luck on advancing science through Emperor Tang's dynasty. Maybe if you couched the project in terms of building a wall or something it might get funding. "I'm going to build a wall of sensors, and it will be a 'uge wall!"

As far as causes of warming goes, do the math. If solar activity is dropping and yet the planet is still warming that's a pretty good hint that something about our planet has changed. Given the time frame in which the change has been detected and the change happens to very strongly correlate with the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, it doesn't take Sherlock Holmes to figure out who the culprit is.


Quoting 178. ZRR40:
Remember it seems everyone blamed the record breaking 2004-05' atlantic hurricane season on global warming, next 10 years turned out quite unimpressive.


Incorrect. The MEDIA tried to establish a link. In a climatological analysis, a single year is noise. It is very difficult to attribute any single event to climate change. Did climate change have an influence on that seasons? Yes. Did it cause that season. No.

Weather is not climate.

Quoting 178. ZRR40:
As far as foercasting the seasons go less reliance on models and more studying existing historical, and improved future data.


What do you think paleoclimatology is about?

The models are tools developed from extensive study of the science. They have not, are not, and will not ever be the end all be all of science.

Quoting 178. ZRR40:
Climate has been changing long before modern times, wouldn't it be amazing to have the data quality we have today to study a hurricane that maybe occurred in semptember 957AD.


Yes. It has. Not a single scientist claims otherwise. But the climate doesn't change just because it wants to. There are drivers for that change. That's the point of paleoclimatology: study the climate of the past to determine what factors drive and influence the climate. Do you think Svante Arrhenius back in the 1890's developed the concept of global warming based on a whim? He was looking for answers as to why the planet warmed and cooled, and determined one of the key factors was atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, particularly CO2 since it is a long lived atmospheric gas.

Quoting 178. ZRR40:
Coastal areas ideally need to become more natural, you live in or near flood zone that's part of the price. Long story hres modeling as you mentioned is already tricky enough, an ocean/atmosphere that was cooler 25 year ago, logically would only complicate things more, guess that goes for the climate/GFS/EURO/ and the rest, as well...


The models are built using physics, math, and chemistry and a basis. A changing climate won't really impact them unless they were using specific climate sensitive parameterizations. The fundamental concepts (such as thermodynamics and fluid dynamics) are invariant.
Quoting 188. StormTrackerScott:

One thing I also noticed is the amount of lightning with these storms recently across FL. Unheard of to see over 10,000 strikes like we saw last Sunday here in C FL in January and also from January 7th storm there was nearly 10,000 strikes. Below is a pic from last Sundays' storm here in Orlando by looking at this you would think this was taken during the Rainy Season.

Pic taken at Avolon Park in East Orlando



NOAA Global Change indicators

Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.
There's a lot of plolitically motivated comments here aimed at inciting arguments and I believe they should be blocked. Examples such as : "the resistance" etc.

I was personally blocked last week for much less. At least be unbiased and consistent .
Quoting 135. LAbonbon:

AltNWS @AlternativeNWS

The tweets are primarily concern for climate data, and the possibility that webpages for the public will soon no longer be available.




Data Refuge

DataRefuge is a public, collaborative project designed to address the following concerns about federal climate and environmental data:

What are the best ways to safeguard data?

How do federal agencies play crucial roles in data collection, management, and distribution?

How do government priorities impact data’s accessibility?

Which projects and research fields depend on federal data?

Which data sets are of value to research and local communities, and why?

Avoiding the #resistance is futile.



The research done by government employees (not University, Private Industry, or Classified research) on any given topic within the scope of their employment is "work for hire" under the US copyright law (owed by the Govt. employer) but it is open to the public in terms of dissemination/opinions because our tax dollars pay for the research which is supposed to serve the common good and influence policy decisions on the given issue (Zika is a good example of a recent initiative by CDC). As such, we should all be outraged, as taxpayers (as we own the research because we pay for it), if any policy decisions are made at the executive level to erase, censor, or to "selectively" fund certain research which supports a political or ideological viewpoint and/or to deny grants and funding to other research on the same basis. We have the legal right to know the outcome/conclusions of the public research we pay for wherever the research leads.
I am SO going to dis un.

Scientists Are Planning A March On Washington, And It Looks Like People Are Totally Down
“Scientific research moves us forward and we should not allow asinine policies to thwart it,” an organizer wrote.



Like the Women’s March on Washington, the idea for the March on Science was born from a single action on social media. One comment on Reddit has led to what could become the next major demonstration against President Donald Trump.

“There needs to be a Scientists’ March on Washington,” a Reddit user suggested last week on a thread discussing the recent removal of the climate action page from the White House website.

Nearly five days later, the idea has taken the internet by storm, likely fueled by the news that the Trump administration plans to “revive America’s coal industry” and advance construction on controversial projects like the Dakota Access Pipeline.

The official Twitter account for the march, @ScienceMarchDC, has gained over 60,000 followers in two days. The event’s original Facebook group, which is now only accessible to members, had only a handful of subscribers on Wednesday morning but grew to more than 350,000 people by that evening.

Organizers encouraged supporters to “like” their recently created public page on Wednesday, where they plan to post future announcements. It’s unclear how many people actually intend to join the march, but the group’s rapidly growing popularity suggests that interest in the event is skyrocketing.

As momentum continues to build, organizers have yet to release details about the event. The group tweeted that more information, including the march date, would be announced next Tuesday.

& nbsp;FollowMarch for Science @ScienceMarchDC

It has never been more important for scientists of all stripes to come together and have their voices heard in government.8:27 AM - 25 Jan 2017

Interest grew “far faster” than anticipated, two organizers for the march told The Huffington Post on Wednesday. They said they were still in the early stages of planning. 

The organizers said they wanted to withhold their names until they created an official mission statement. But they offered some of their motivations in an email:

Scientists worldwide have been alarmed by the clear anti-science actions taken by the Trump administration. It has been less than a week and there have already been funding freezes and efforts to restrict scientists from communicating their findings (from tax-funded research!) with the public. These actions are absurd and cannot be allowed to stand as policy. This is not a partisan issue — people from all parts of the political spectrum should be alarmed by these efforts to deny scientific progress. Scientific research moves us forward and we should not allow asinine policies to thwart it. 

They also stressed the march’s commitment to inclusivity and pledged to coordinate “sister marches” in other cities for those unable to travel to Washington, D.C.

“We are a diverse group of organizers focused on intersectionality both in the mission statement and the March itself,” they wrote. “We are including everyone in this movement.” 

Trump, who once called climate change a “hoax,” has done little to quell the scientific community’s fears that he’ll take anything but a regressive stance on addressing climate change and protecting the environment. The administration has already demonstrated its hostility toward empirical evidence and facts.

Trump’s pick to lead the Environmental Protection Agency, Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, refuses to accept that human activity is the main cause of climate change ― a stance that puts him at odds with 97 percent of climate scientists. Former Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson, a man with deep ties to the oil and gas industry, has all but secured his confirmation as secretary of state.

“We write as concerned individuals, united in recognizing that the science is unequivocal and America must respond,” more that 800 earth and energy scientists wrote in <>a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observa tions/an-open-letter-from-scientists-to-president- elect-trump-on-climate-change/" target="_blank" data-beacon="{"p":{"mn

Quoting 200. weathermanwannabe:

The research done by government employees (not University, Private Industry, or Classified research) on any given topic within the scope of their employment is "work for hire" under the US copyright law (owed by the Govt. employer) but it is open to the public in terms of dissemination/opinions because our tax dollars pay for the research which is supposed to serve the common good and influence policy decisions on the given issue (Zika is a good example of a recent initiative by CDC). As such, we should all be outraged, as taxpayers (as we own the research because we pay for it), if any policy decisions are made at the executive level to erase, censor, or to "selectively" fund certain research which supports a political or ideological viewpoint and/or to deny grants and funding to other research on the same basis. We have the legal right to know the outcome/conclusions of the public research we pay for wherever the research leads.


The Tweeter in Chief fails again on every level.

And it's only a week into this "Presidency".

WHITE HOUSE
Trump’s flashy executive actions could run aground
The White House failed to consult with many of the agencies and lawmakers who will be critical for their success.

By ISAAC ARNSDORF, JOSH DAWSEY and SEUNG MIN KIM 01/25/17 07:47 PM EST




Link

@RogueNASA: America's scientists are launching unofficial Twitter accounts to defy trump
Uwish he was failing!
From The Washington Post:

EPA science under scrutiny by Trump political staff

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration is scrutinizing studies and data published by scientists at the Environmental Protection Agency, while new work is under a "temporary hold" before it can be released.

The communications director for President Donald Trump's transition team at EPA, Doug Ericksen, said Wednesday the review extends to all existing content on the federal agency's website, including details of scientific evidence showing that the Earth's climate is warming and man-made carbon emissions are to blame.

[...]

Ericksen said no decisions have yet been made about whether to strip mentions of climate change from epa.gov

"We're taking a look at everything on a case-by-case basis, including the web page and whether climate stuff will be taken down," Erickson said in an earlier interview with the AP. "Obviously with a new administration coming in, the transition time, we'll be taking a look at the web pages and the Facebook pages and everything else involved here at EPA."

Asked specifically about scientific data being collected by agency scientists, such as routine monitoring of air and water pollution, Ericksen responded, "Everything is subject to review."

[...]

William K. Reilly, who was EPA administrator under Republican President George H.W. Bush, said what seems to be happening with science at the agency is "going down a very dark road."

[...]

Jared Blumenfeld, who served until last year as EPA's regional administrator for California and the Pacific Northwest, compared what is happening to a "hostile takeover" in the corporate world.

"Ericksen and these other folks that have been brought in ... have basically put a hold on everything," said Blumenfeld, who regularly speaks with former colleagues still at the agency. "The level of mismanagement being exercised during this transition is startling and the impact on the public is alarming."

For example, he said EPA employees aren't clear whether they can direct contractors who handle all of California's Superfund sites. Some EPA employees have taken to their own social media accounts to say what's happening inside the agency, despite fears of retaliation.

"There's a strong sense of resistance," Blumenfeld said.

Click here to read full article.
Quoting 197. snotly:

There's a lot of plolitically motivated comments here aimed at inciting arguments and I believe they should be blocked. Examples such as : "the resistance" etc.

I was personally blocked last week for much less. At least be unbiased and consistent .
We *are* being consistent: we don't support censorship of scientific data for any reason. Period. But we are indeed biased, and very much so; one is either for science, or one is against it. And since the most powerful man in the world is explicitly against it, we will crank up the volume on our pro-science bias and resist that censorship as loud and as often as possible. That is our right; that is our responsibility. Those who were expecting things to go differently, who hoped and thought that the rest of the world was going to roll over and play dead, are going to have a really long four years...
Quoting 92. Xandra:

From The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists:

Watch the 2017 Clock announcement live at the Bulletin




The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists will host a live international news conference at 10 a.m. EST/1500 GMT on January 26, 2017, to announce whether the minute hand of the historic 'Doomsday Clock' will be adjusted.

The decision is made by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists' Science and Security Board in consultation with the Board of Sponsors, which includes 15 Nobel Laureates.

Factors influencing the 2017 deliberations regarding any adjustment that may be made to the Doomsday Clock include: a rise in strident nationalism worldwide, President Donald Trump's comments on nuclear arms and climate issues prior to his inauguration on January 20th, a darkening global security landscape that is colored by increasingly sophisticated technology, and a growing disregard for scientific expertise.

In January 2016, the Doomsday Clock's minute hand did not change, remaining at three minutes before midnight, the closest it has been to midnight since the early days of above-ground hydrogen bomb testing. The Clock was changed in 2015 from five to three minutes to midnight.

Speakers for the Doomsday Clock announcement on January 26, 2017 will include:

Lawrence Krauss, chair, Bulletin Board of Sponsors; director, Origins Project at Arizona State University; and Foundation Professor, School of Earth and Space Exploration and Physics Department, Arizona State University.

Thomas Pickering, Bulletin Board of Sponsors, former US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs (1997-2000) and US Ambassador to the United Nations, the Russian Federation, India, Israel, El Salvador, Nigeria, and Jordan. Ambassador Pickering is currently focused on nonproliferation, most recently the Iran nuclear agreement.

David Titley, Bulletin Science and Security Board, professor of practice at the Pennsylvania State University Department of Meteorology, and founding director, Penn State's Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk. Dr. Titley is a nationally known expert in the field of climate, the Arctic, and national security, and a retired rear admiral. While serving as Oceanographer and Navigator of the Navy, Dr. Titley initiated and led the U.S.Navy's Task Force on Climate Change.

Rachel Bronson, executive director and publisher, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

Please join us for this historic announcement; watch it live at thebulletin.org. And don't forget to take the 2017 Clock poll. Let us know what time you think it is.

The 2017 Clock announcement was made possible by the generous support of the Ploughshares Fund.
It be throwback Thursday,..so here's a weather post.





90S Viz to Night IR Loop

91S Viz to Night IR Loop

One can easily see 90S impacting Australia's Northwest coast...

Large Hi Rez Image

Predicting where seas are rising fastest

The year 2016 was the hottest ever recorded, marking the third consecutive year of record warm temperatures on the Earth’s surface, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and NASA. Of the 17 hottest years in history, 16 have been since 2000. Scientists are unequivocal: we humans are behind global warming.

As a result, polar ice is melting and the seas are rising faster than at any time in at least 2,800 years. The sea level has climbed by up to nine inches since 1880 and by three inches since 1993, according to research published in Nature.


Link
The weather in the great white north has been rather nice as far as temps go but with the nice temps comes lots of clouds and boring weather. I do not think the sun has come out in over a week. The forecast for the next 10 days is more of the same with slightly lower temps and not much if any sunshine.

I need to book a vacation to someplace sunny.
My laptop won't load the page fully. It seems hung up on Pat's image, post #211. Switching from 200 pp to 50 did not help.
Floods lash Bolivia and Peru
Torrential rains lead to widespread flooding across parts of central South America.

Link
Quoting 186. StormTrackerScott:



Some of the Oaks here in Orlando are fully leafed out already the earliest I've ever seen. As Weatherwannabe said Winter never made to FL this year. Lowest temp at my location is right at 40 so far so not even a 30 degree night here on the NW side of Orlando which might be a record.


Live Oaks or the more northern species? I'd be surprised to see the more northern species (like maples) leafing out this early since they need chilling hours to satisfy dormancy requirements. I do remember seeing Maples in Orlando when I visited in 1996 to take care of the baby while my wife went to a professional conference there in December.

I have a maple beside my Suburban DC Maryland porch that is blooming three weeks early. This kind of warmth is precedented but very uncommon in January here.. more notable for duration (18 days tomorrow) than intensity. The closest analog I can remember is January 1974 but that was warmer in the second half. February(last half) 1976 and December 2015 are the top two winter heat spells I can recall, blowing all others out of the park for both intensity and duration in the DC area. January 1950 produced comparable heat to these two spells, but that was before my time.
From NPR:

The Doomsday Clock Is Now 30 Seconds Closer To Midnight


The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists announced that its advisory group was moving the Doomsday Clock 30 seconds closer to midnight in a news conference Thursday.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

The minute hand on the Doomsday Clock ticked closer to midnight Wednesday, as the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists said they're seeing an increase in dangers to humanity, from climate change to nuclear warfare. The group took the "unprecedented" step of moving the clock 30 seconds closer to midnight, to leave it at two-and-a-half minutes away.

The setting is the closest the clock has come to midnight since 1953, when scientists moved it to two minutes from midnight after seeing both the U.S. and the Soviet Union test hydrogen bombs.

"Make no mistake, this has been a difficult year," Rachel Bronson, executive director and publisher, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, said as the new setting was announced Thursday.

Ahead of today's announcement, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists said that factors that played into this year's setting of the clock included "a rise in strident nationalism worldwide, President Donald Trump's comments on nuclear arms and climate issues, a darkening global security landscape that is colored by increasingly sophisticated technology, and a growing disregard for scientific expertise."

Read more here.
Trump Wants to Downplay Global Warming. Louisiana Won’t Let Him
“Mother Nature is threatening to kick our people out.”

On a recent morning in Baton Rouge, a thousand miles from where Senate Democrats were jousting with Donald Trump’s nominee to run the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency about whether humans are warming the planet, the future of U.S. climate policy was being crafted in a small room in the east wing of the Louisiana Capitol. The state’s 7,700-mile shoreline is disappearing at the fastest rate in the country. Officials had gathered to consider a method of deciding which communities to save—and which to abandon to the Gulf of Mexico.

Link
Quoting 153. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Do you need one of these?



Multiple copies on separate servers and two parity files on other servers to detect and correct unauthorized changes, perhaps from the "ministry of truth".
Quoting 206. Neapolitan:

We *are* being consistent: we don't support censorship of scientific data for any reason. Period. But we are indeed biased, and very much so; one is either for science, or one is against it. And since the most powerful man in the world is explicitly against it, we will crank up the volume on our pro-science bias and resist that censorship as loud and as often as possible. That is our right; that is our responsibility. Those who were expecting things to go differently, who hoped and thought that the rest of the world was going to roll over and play dead, are going to have a really long four years...
You are mistaken. A really long 8 years and that will be for your side.
Quoting 178. ZRR40:

I think more money should be invested in higher density and quality stations and other means of colecting data, further more regardless of the cause of the warming (obvoiusly 2016 the global temperature is the likely the warmest year on record that is since reliable data has been collected) The oceans heat input and the sea surface temps are impresively warm, and the polar winter as well. Remember it seems everyone blamed the record breaking 2004-05' atlantic hurricane season on global warming, next 10 years turned out quite unimpressive. As far as foercasting the seasons go less reliance on models and more studying existing historical, and improved future data. Climate has been changing long before modern times, wouldn't it be amazing to have the data quality we have today to study a hurricane that maybe occurred in semptember 957AD. Coastal areas ideally need to become more natural, you live in or near flood zone that's part of the price. Long story hres modeling as you mentioned is already tricky enough, an ocean/atmosphere that was cooler 25 year ago, logically would only complicate things more, guess that goes for the climate/GFS/EURO/ and the rest, as well...

Are you familiar with the field of paleotempestology? Not the same data quality, of course, but still fascinating.
Quoting 207. 999Ai2016:


it is two and half minutes to midnight
faster and faster
re:

220. PensacolaDoug

I think we are all on the same "side". >?
Welcome to Doom Con 6


Markedly cooler today in SE TX, in low 50s as of now and 30s and 40s for lows for the next 5 days
NASA displays Apollo capsule hatch 50 years after fatal fire
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - A relic from America's first space tragedy is finally going on display this week, 50 years after a fire on the launch pad killed three astronauts at the start of the Apollo moon program.

The scorched Apollo 1 capsule remains locked away in storage. But NASA is offering visitors at Kennedy Space Center a look at the most symbolic part: the hatch that trapped Gus Grissom, Ed White and Roger Chaffee in their burning spacecraft on Jan. 27, 1967.

A flash fire erupted inside the capsule during a countdown rehearsal, with the astronauts atop the rocket at Cape Canaveral's Launch Complex 34. A cry came from inside: "Got a fire in the cockpit!" White struggled to open the hatch before quickly being overcome by smoke and fumes, along with his two crewmates. It was over for them in seconds.

Investigators determined the most likely cause to be electrical arcing from defective wiring.

With its moon program in jeopardy, NASA completely overhauled the Apollo spacecraft. The redesigned capsule — with a quick-release hatch — carried 24 men to the moon; 12 of them landed and walked on its surface.

For the astronauts' families, Apollo 1 is finally getting its due. The tragedy has long been overshadowed by the 1986 Challenger and 2003 Columbia accidents. Remnants of the lost shuttles have been on display at the visitor complex for 1 1/2 years.

"I'm just so pleased that they finally decided to do something — visibly — to honour the three guys," said Chaffee's widow, Martha. "It's time that they show the three who died in the fire appreciation for the work that they did."

On Friday — the 50th anniversary — the crew's families will help dedicate the new exhibit. For most of them, a private tour Wednesday marks the first time they've seen any of the capsule.

"This is way, way, way long overdue. But we're excited about it," said Scott Grissom, Gus' older son. NASA was embarrassed about the fire "and that's why they pretty much kept it in the closet as long as they have."

Like the rest of America, NASA was in shock and simply did not want to talk about it, said Martha Chaffee. Exhibits at Kennedy and elsewhere would mention the fire but not highlight it.

As the years and decades rolled by, Apollo 1 became a mere footnote in space history. Chaffee's daughter, Sheryl, who retired last month after working at Kennedy for 33 years, recalls having to buy a memorial wreath herself to display at the space centre on the 20th anniversary.

The Astronauts Memorial Foundation took over the annual observance that honours all astronauts killed in the line of duty — this year's ceremony is Thursday. But it wasn't until NASA unveiled its tribute to the 14 Challenger and Columbia astronauts in June 2015 that the agency wondered why it hadn't done anything similar for Apollo 1.

"This wasn't our generation ... it wasn't on our radar" like the shuttle accidents were, explained Kelvin Manning, associate director of Kennedy Space Center. Determined to make things right, he and others at Kennedy began work on a display.



NASA consulted the two surviving widows and six children, explaining it wanted to honour the three men and their sacrifice, and show how Apollo 1 ultimately paved the way to the moon. Grissom, an original Mercury astronaut, was the second American to fly in space. White was the nation's first spacewalker. Chaffee was the rookie for the flight, a demo in low-Earth orbit.

With the families' blessing, NASA last year pulled the hatch from storage at Langley Research Center in Virginia.

All three layers of the hatch underwent preservation, but were not altered in any way. The white outer hatch is still discolored and pitted, with what looks to be charring in an upper corner. The middle hatch appears darkened. The orange inner hatch is scuffed.

The three sections stand side-by-side.

In the very next display case is the redesigned hatch. It was just one of numerous changes made to the spacecraft, as well as to procedures. No more pure oxygen, high-pressure cabin atmosphere on the ground, for example, and everything fireproofed inside. The exhibit is in the same building that holds one of three remaining Saturn V rockets built for moon shots.

Bonnie Baer, White's daughter, is grateful the entire capsule is not on display, as so many other family members have been urging for decades. "I want them to be remembered for the other things and not necessarily for the accident," she said.

As the 30th anniversary of the fire approached, Betty Grissom, Gus' widow, had pushed to have the capsule put on public display. The request was denied.

"There's a long list of places where really bad things happened to our country, but we display those respectfully and appropriately," Scott Grissom said, citing the Alamo, Gettysburg and the Arizona Memorial at Pearl Harbor.

The retired FedEx pilot said displaying the hatch is a start.

"This is a long overdue step at doing right."

___

How A Deadly Heat Wave Led To Disastrous Floods 2,000 Miles Away

Scientists would link Ladakh’s catastrophic flood to a historic heat wave that killed tens of thousands of people in Russia, 2,200 miles away. For weeks, Russia had been experiencing a heat wave that brought the highest temperatures the nation had seen since record keeping began in 1879. Moscow, where high temperatures in during its warmest months of July and August are typically around 73 degrees Fahrenheit, hit 100 degrees; the Siberian city of Omsk hit at least 96.6 degrees — its average high in August is 72. With the heat wave came drought and nearly 600 wildfires across 480,000 acres. The country, known for its blistering winter cold, was boiling that summer. Russia hadn’t seen anything like it in at least 1,000 years, the head of the Russian Meteorological Center said at the time. When it was over, an estimated 55,000 people were dead, killed either by heat stroke or from conditions such as heart and asthma attacks made more likely by the heat.

Kristen Rasmussen, an assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at Colorado State University, helped make the connection between Russia’s heat wave and Ladakh’s rains. By collecting data from a NASA satellite called the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission, “we were able to see what kinds of storms and what kinds of systems we typically expect in the climatology,” she said. The satellite also lets scientists see when weather patterns are atypical, so they can better examine them. And the 2010 Ladakhi rains were atypical.


Link
Quoting 186. StormTrackerScott:



Some of the Oaks here in Orlando are fully leafed out already the earliest I've ever seen. As Weatherwannabe said Winter never made to FL this year. Lowest temp at my location is right at 40 so far so not even a 30 degree night here on the NW side of Orlando which might be a record.


We hit 39 degrees on Jan. 8th here in Fort Myers. Since I've lived in Fort Myers (over 20 years), we've had a few Winters when we didn't get down in the 30s.
But the overall average temperature this Winter has been one of the warmest I've experienced. We've been in the 80s for most of December and January with the exception of a couple cool downs.
file:///C:/Users/Richard/Downloads/CaribbeanDrought Bulletin_Jan_Vol3_Issue8.pdf

And January other than a small section of the Island hasnt been any different.

Very apparent now in the dying shrubbery, bougainvillea and even sea grape and coconut trees.

It will take nothing short of a miracle to get us back to where we should be by the end of 2017.
Hurricane Matthew Destroyed 177 Miles of East Coast Dunes, USGS Says
Link


Read the Science and Security Board’s 2017 Doomsday Clock Statement.
Read the press release.
Watch the videotaped Doomsday Clock Announcement.

Excerpt from the Statement:

"The continued warming of the world measured in 2016 underscores one clear fact: Nothing is fundamentally amiss with the scientific understanding of climate physics. The burning of fossil fuels adds carbon dioxide to the atmosphere; carbon dioxide is a greenhouse gas, inhibiting the radiation of heat into space. The relationship between increased atmospheric carbon dioxide levels and increased terrestrial temperature has been researched for decades, and national science academies around the world agree: Human activity is the primary cause of climate change, and unless carbon dioxide emissions are dramatically reduced, global warming will threaten the future of humanity.

In 2016, however, the international community did not take the steps needed to begin the path toward a net zero-carbon-emissions world. The Marrakech Climate Change Conference, for instance, produced little progress beyond the emissions goals pledged under the Paris Accord.

The political situation in the United States is of particular concern. The Trump transition team has put forward candidates for cabinet-level positions (especially at the Environmental Protection Agency and Energy Department) who foreshadow the possibility that the new administration will be openly hostile to progress toward even the most modest efforts to avert catastrophic climate disruption.

Climate change should not be a partisan political issue. The well-established physics of Earth’s carbon cycle is neither liberal nor conservative in character. The planet will continue to warm to dangerous levels so long as carbon dioxide continues to be pumped into the atmosphere—regardless of who is chosen to lead the United States or any other country."
Quoting 228. Patrap:

NASA displays Apollo capsule hatch 50 years after fatal fire
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla. - A relic from America's first space tragedy is finally going on display this week, 50 years after a fire on the launch pad killed three astronauts at the start of the Apollo moon program.

The scorched Apollo 1 capsule remains locked away in storage. But NASA is offering visitors at Kennedy Space Center a look at the most symbolic part: the hatch that trapped Gus Grissom, Ed White and Roger Chaffee in their burning spacecraft on Jan. 27, 1967.

A flash fire erupted inside the capsule during a countdown rehearsal, with the astronauts atop the rocket at Cape Canaveral's Launch Complex 34. A cry came from inside: "Got a fire in the cockpit!" White struggled to open the hatch before quickly being overcome by smoke and fumes, along with his two crewmates. It was over for them in seconds.

Investigators determined the most likely cause to be electrical arcing from defective wiring.

With its moon program in jeopardy, NASA completely overhauled the Apollo spacecraft. The redesigned capsule — with a quick-release hatch — carried 24 men to the moon; 12 of them landed and walked on its surface.

For the astronauts' families, Apollo 1 is finally getting its due. The tragedy has long been overshadowed by the 1986 Challenger and 2003 Columbia accidents. Remnants of the lost shuttles have been on display at the visitor complex for 1 1/2 years.

"I'm just so pleased that they finally decided to do something — visibly — to honour the three guys," said Chaffee's widow, Martha. "It's time that they show the three who died in the fire appreciation for the work that they did."

On Friday — the 50th anniversary — the crew's families will help dedicate the new exhibit. For most of them, a private tour Wednesday marks the first time they've seen any of the capsule.

"This is way, way, way long overdue. But we're excited about it," said Scott Grissom, Gus' older son. NASA was embarrassed about the fire "and that's why they pretty much kept it in the closet as long as they have."

Like the rest of America, NASA was in shock and simply did not want to talk about it, said Martha Chaffee. Exhibits at Kennedy and elsewhere would mention the fire but not highlight it.

As the years and decades rolled by, Apollo 1 became a mere footnote in space history. Chaffee's daughter, Sheryl, who retired last month after working at Kennedy for 33 years, recalls having to buy a memorial wreath herself to display at the space centre on the 20th anniversary.

The Astronauts Memorial Foundation took over the annual observance that honours all astronauts killed in the line of duty — this year's ceremony is Thursday. But it wasn't until NASA unveiled its tribute to the 14 Challenger and Columbia astronauts in June 2015 that the agency wondered why it hadn't done anything similar for Apollo 1.

"This wasn't our generation ... it wasn't on our radar" like the shuttle accidents were, explained Kelvin Manning, associate director of Kennedy Space Center. Determined to make things right, he and others at Kennedy began work on a display.



NASA consulted the two surviving widows and six children, explaining it wanted to honour the three men and their sacrifice, and show how Apollo 1 ultimately paved the way to the moon. Grissom, an original Mercury astronaut, was the second American to fly in space. White was the nation's first spacewalker. Chaffee was the rookie for the flight, a demo in low-Earth orbit.

With the families' blessing, NASA last year pulled the hatch from storage at Langley Research Center in Virginia.

All three layers of the hatch underwent preservation, but were not altered in any way. The white outer hatch is still discolored and pitted, with what looks to be charring in an upper corner. The middle hatch appears darkened. The orange inner hatch is scuffed.

The three sections stand side-by-side.

In the very next display case is the redesigned hatch. It was just one of numerous changes made to the spacecraft, as well as to procedures. No more pure oxygen, high-pressure cabin atmosphere on the ground, for example, and everything fireproofed inside. The exhibit is in the same building that holds one of three remaining Saturn V rockets built for moon shots.

Bonnie Baer, White's daughter, is grateful the entire capsule is not on display, as so many other family members have been urging for decades. "I want them to be remembered for the other things and not necessarily for the accident," she said.

As the 30th anniversary of the fire approached, Betty Grissom, Gus' widow, had pushed to have the capsule put on public display. The request was denied.

"There's a long list of places where really bad things happened to our country, but we display those respectfully and appropriately," Scott Grissom said, citing the Alamo, Gettysburg and the Arizona Memorial at Pearl Harbor.

The retired FedEx pilot said displaying the hatch is a start.

"This is a long overdue step at doing right."

___




So, there possibly gonna bring back the Apollo I capsule?
Quoting 221. LAbonbon:


Are you familiar with the field of paleotempestology? Not the same data quality, of course, but still fascinating.

Paleo-Hurricane Science

Quoting 222. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it is two and half minutes to midnight


If they included the threat to human existence by Climate Change, we would be at about 12:15.
Quoting 234. Famoguy1234:



So, there possibly gonna bring back the Apollo I capsule?


There are no plans to put the Apollo 1 Command Module on display. It remains locked away in storage at KSC.

As the 30th anniversary of the fire approached, Betty Grissom, Gus' widow, had pushed to have the capsule put on public display. The request was denied.

"There's a long list of places where really bad things happened to our country, but we display those respectfully and appropriately," Scott Grissom said, citing the Alamo, Gettysburg and the Arizona Memorial at Pearl Harbor.

The retired FedEx pilot said displaying the hatch is a start.

"This is a long overdue step at doing right."



What is important to the next Generation US Manned spacecraft, the Orion EF-2 Spacecraft undergoing assembly at KSC.

NASA Readies for Major Orion Milestones in 2017

Construction Begins on First Orion for Crew

While the Orion outfitting and assembly process for the first mission of the spacecraft atop the Space Launch System rocket continues in 2017, construction will also begin on the vehicle for the first Orion flight with astronauts that will fly as early as 2021. The first panels of the crew module pressure vessel for that mission are expected to arrive at NASA’s Michoud Assembly Facility in New Orleans in the spring, when weld operations will begin.

Quoting 232. Cyclone2016:

Hurricane Matthew Destroyed 177 Miles of East Coast Dunes, USGS Says
Link


Thanks for this, I was wondering what this number end up being at the time.


Austin is going to be on the other side of that wall pretty soon...
EU will remain top investor against climate change, in defiance of Donald Trump's policies
'We, Europeans, must lead the free world against climate sceptics'
Independent, 8 hours ago
The European Investment Bank has pledged to maintain its target of investing around $20bn (£16bn) a year to fight climate change over the next five years.
“We, Europeans, must lead the free world against climate sceptics,” EID president Werner Hoyer said. ...


A Brief Chat With Elon Musk About Climate Change, Rex Tillerson, and Donald Trump
Gizmodo, Bryan Menegus, Yesterday 4:42pm

Iowa oil spill underscores pipeline risks day after Trump revives major projects
Rupture of 138,600 gallons is ‘not a major disaster’ but environmental advocates say it highlights their fears about the Keystone XL and Dakota Access projects
The Guardian, Thursday 26 January 2017 01.01 GM

One thing that will breach Trump's wall: climate change
Erika Bolstad, E&E News reporter, Climatewire: Thursday, January 26, 2017
Architects have called the border wall a "pharaonic project" and a misplaced infrastructure priority. Environmentalists say it will continue to cut off the flow of water and wildlife in a changing climate but is little more than political grandstanding that won't keep out people. ...
"In terms of climate adaptation, building a border wall is an act of self-sabotage," said Dan Millis, a program manager with the Sierra Club's Borderlands project. "And the reason I say that is we're already seeing wildlife migrations blocked with the current walls and fences that have already been built. We have hundreds of these walls that were built without dozens of environmental protections."
The climate impacts of a massive concrete wall running from San Diego to Brownsville, Texas, along the border of the United States and Mexico begin with the source of the materials, Mills said. The production of cement, the material that holds together concrete, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. ...

At Scientific American…”The War on Facts is a War on Democracy”

There is a new incumbent in the White House, a new Congress has been sworn in, and scientists around the country are nervous as hell.

We’re nervous because there seems to be a seismic shift going on in Washington, D.C., and its relationship with facts, scientific reality, and objective truth has never been more strained.
242. elioe
Quoting 206. Neapolitan:

We *are* being consistent: we don't support censorship of scientific data for any reason. Period. But we are indeed biased, and very much so; one is either for science, or one is against it. And since the most powerful man in the world is explicitly against it, we will crank up the volume on our pro-science bias and resist that censorship as loud and as often as possible. That is our right; that is our responsibility. Those who were expecting things to go differently, who hoped and thought that the rest of the world was going to roll over and play dead, are going to have a really long four years...


If the "resistance" concentrated on science policy issues, it would indeed be consistent. But I've seen a "Mussolini card" being drawn so many times during last days, that I've lost count. Through this card-drawing, the discussion has shifted occasionally to fields entirely outside the limits of science policy. Apparently people think, that the full agenda of this "most powerful man in the world" (oh, great 'Murica, lol) gives a convenient excuse to ignore blog rules about "other policy issues". And the Mussolini card has been already drawn towards another commentator. And this variation of Godwin's law took only two comments in a "thread" to come true.
Quoting 240. barbamz:

EU will remain top investor against climate change, in defiance of Donald Trump's policies
'We, Europeans, must lead the free world against climate sceptics'
Independent, 8 hours ago
The European Investment Bank has pledged to maintain its target of investing around $20bn (£16bn) a year to fight climate change over the next five years.
“We, Europeans, must lead the free world against climate sceptics,” EID president Werner Hoyer said. ...


A Brief Chat With Elon Musk About Climate Change, Rex Tillerson, and Donald Trump
Gizmodo, Bryan Menegus, Yesterday 4:42pm

Iowa oil spill underscores pipeline risks day after Trump revives major projects
Rupture of 138,600 gallons is ‘not a major disaster’ but environmental advocates say it highlights their fears about the Keystone XL and Dakota Access projects
The Guardian, Thursday 26 January 2017 01.01 GM

One thing that will breach Trump's wall: climate change
Erika Bolstad, E&E News reporter, Climatewire: Thursday, January 26, 2017
Architects have called the border wall a "pharaonic project" and a misplaced infrastructure priority. Environmentalists say it will continue to cut off the flow of water and wildlife in a changing climate but is little more than political grandstanding that won't keep out people. ...
"In terms of climate adaptation, building a border wall is an act of self-sabotage," said Dan Millis, a program manager with the Sierra Club's Borderlands project. "And the reason I say that is we're already seeing wildlife migrations blocked with the current walls and fences that have already been built. We have hundreds of these walls that were built without dozens of environmental protections."
The climate impacts of a massive concrete wall running from San Diego to Brownsville, Texas, along the border of the United States and Mexico begin with the source of the materials, Mills said. The production of cement, the material that holds together concrete, is a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. ...



That last part is funny....
From Daily News:

Trump signs executive actions advancing construction on Keystone XL, Dakota Access pipelines

President Trump signed two executive actions Tuesday that will advance construction of the controversial Keystone XL and Dakota Access pipelines.

The actions follow months of protests by environmentalists and Native American groups in North Dakota against the Dakota Access project, a $3.8-billion pipeline that would bring crude oil from the state's Bakken oil patch through the Midwest and into the Gulf Coast.

[...]

Trump’s executive actions make good on campaign promises to help move the pipelines forward and adhere to his oft-stated desire to ease, or eliminate altogether, regulations, including ones pertaining to the environment, to help spur economic growth.

Environment groups pounced after news of the actions broke.

“Trump claims he’s a good businessman, yet he’s encouraging dirty, dangerous tar sands development when clean energy is growing faster, producing more jobs, and has a real future,” Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune said. “Trump claims he cares about the American people, but he’s allowing oil companies to steal and threaten their land by constructing dirty and dangerous pipelines through it.”

“Simply put, Donald Trump is who we thought he is: a person who will sell off Americans’ property and Tribal rights, clean air, and safe water to corporate polluters,” Brune added.

[...]

Click here to read full article.

--------------------

From the Guardian:

Standing Rock Sioux: 'we can't back down now' on Dakota pipeline fight

Donald Trump’s revival of the Dakota Access pipeline is a stunning twist of fate, but the tribe and its supporters say now is the time to show strength


‘I’m not scared for myself, but I admit I am frightened for the future.’ Photograph: ddp USA/Rex/Shutterstock

The Standing Rock Sioux tribe and its supporters are vowing to resist Donald Trump’s executive order to allow construction of the Dakota Access pipeline with legal action, civil disobedience and a return to the “water protector” encampments.

“President Trump is legally required to honor our treaty rights and provide a fair and reasonable pipeline process,” said Standing Rock Sioux tribal chairman Dave Archambault, who called Trump’s action “politically motivated”.

“Creating a second Flint does not make America great again,” he added.

The executive order represents a major – if not wholly unexpected – reversal of fate for the $3.8bn project, which was slated to cross the Missouri River just upstream of the Standing Rock Sioux reservation. The tribe feared the pipeline would contaminate their drinking water and destroy sacred sites.

Read more here.

--------------------

Quoting 242. elioe:



If the "resistance" concentrated on science policy issues, it would indeed be consistent. But I've seen a "Mussolini card" being drawn so many times during last days, that I've lost count. Through this card-drawing, the discussion has shifted occasionally to fields entirely outside the limits of science policy. Apparently people think, that the full agenda of this "most powerful man in the world" (oh, great 'Murica, lol) gives a convenient excuse to ignore blog rules about "other policy issues". And the Mussolini card has been already drawn towards another commentator. And this variation of Godwin's law took only two comments in a "thread" to come true.


Godwin's law

"Godwin's law itself can be abused as a distraction, diversion or even as censorship, fallaciously miscasting an opponent's argument as hyperbole when the comparisons made by the argument are actually appropriate."
Quoting 242. elioe:
Keep us informed when Putin rolls into the Baltic States.
Here's a list of Trump's "Priority List" Link

Alaska Pipeline & LNG Project Oil and Gas AK Yes
Fort Mojave Solar Project Electricity and Transmission AZ Yes
Cadiz Water Conveyance Project Water CA Yes
Huntington Beach Desalination Plant Water CA Yes
TransWest Express Transmission Electricity and Transmission CA, NV, AZ Yes
Colorado I-25 Improvements Highways and Bridges CO No
Colorado I-70 Mountain Corridor Highways and Bridges CO No
DC Union Station Expansion and Rehab Rail DC No
I-95/I-395 Reconstruction Highways and Bridges FL No
Savannah Harbor Expansion Acceleration Ports GA Yes
Chicago Union Station Redevelopment Rail IL No
Illinois River Locks Inland Waterways IL Yes
Locks and Dams 52 and 53 on the Ohio River Inland Waterways IL Yes
Red and Purple Line Modernization, Chicago Mass Transit IL Yes (Partial)
INHC Lock Replacement, New Orleans Inland Waterways LA Yes
Lake Ponchartrain Bridge Highways and Bridges LA Yes
Mississippi River Shipping Channel Dredging Ports LA Yes
MBTA Green Line Extension, Boston Mass Transit MA Yes (Partial)
Maryland Purple Line Mass Transit MD Yes
Gordie Howe International Bridge Highways and Bridges MI Yes
M-1 Rail, Detroit Mass Transit MI Yes
Soo Locks Modernization Project Inland Waterways MI Yes
Kansas City Airport Airports MO Yes
St. Louis Airport Airports MO Yes
Upper Mississippi Locks 20-25 Inland Waterways MO Yes
Energy Storage and Grid Modernization Electricity and Transmission National Yes
Hydroelectric Plants operated by USACE Inland Waterways/Electricity National Yes
NextGen Air Traffic Control System National Initiative National No
I-95 Critical Highway Repairs Highways and Bridges NC No
I-93 Rebuild Highways and Bridges NH No
Quoting 248. Patrap:

Breaking: The State Department entire senior mangement team just resigned

More breaking news (at least it's not boring to follow the news right now ;-): Mexican president scraps visit with Trump

Dem: Trump's EPA pick gave answers ‘shockingly devoid of substance’
The Hill, by Timothy Cama - 01/26/17 09:36 AM EST
From The Weather Channel to Breitbart News

Note to Breitbart: Earth Is Not Cooling, Climate Change Is Real and Please Stop Using Our Video to Mislead Americans

Dec 6 2016 02:15 PM EST
weather.com
00:0601:56



Global warming is not expected to end anytime soon, despite what Breitbart.com wrote in an article published last week.

Though we would prefer to focus on our usual coverage of weather and climate science, in this case we felt it important to add our two cents — especially because a video clip from weather.com (La Niña in Pacific Affects Weather in New England) was prominently featured at the top of the Breitbart article. Breitbart had the legal right to use this clip as part of a content-sharing agreement with another company, but there should be no assumption that The Weather Company endorses the article associated with it.


The Breitbart article – a prime example of cherry picking, or pulling a single item out of context to build a misleading case – includes this statement: "The last three years may eventually come to be seen as the final death rattle of the global warming scare."

In fact, thousands of researchers and scientific societies are in agreement that greenhouse gases produced by human activity are warming the planet’s climate and will keep doing so.

Along with its presence on the high-profile Breitbart site, the article drew even more attention after a link to it was retweeted by the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology.

The Breitbart article heavily references a piece that first appeared on U.K. Daily Mail’s site.

Here’s where both articles went wrong:

CLAIM: "Global land temperatures have plummeted by one degree Celsius since the middle of this year – the biggest and steepest fall on record."

TRUTH: This number comes from one satellite-based estimate of temperatures above land areas in the lower atmosphere. Data from the other two groups that regularly publish satellite-based temperature estimates show smaller drops, more typical of the decline one would expect after a strong El Niño event.

Temperatures over land give an incomplete picture of global-scale temperature. Most of the planet – about 70 percent – is covered by water, and the land surface warms and cools more quickly than the ocean. Land-plus-ocean data from the other two satellite groups, released after the Breitbart article, show that Earth’s lower atmosphere actually set a record high in November 2016.

CLAIM: "It can be argued that without the El Niño (and the so-called "Pacific Blob") 2014-2016 would not have been record warm years." (David Whitehouse, Global Warming Policy Foundation, quoted by Breitbart)

TRUTH: NOAA data show that the 2014-16 El Niño did not even begin until October 2014. It was a borderline event until mid-2015, barely above the El Niño threshold. El Niño clearly added to the strength of the record global warmth observed since late 2015. However, if the El Niño spike is removed, 2016 is still the warmest year on record and 2015 the second warmest, according to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather (Berkeley Earth).


Global surface temperature trends for the period 1966-2015 analyzed for El Niño years (red boxes), La Niña years (blue boxes), and neutral years (black boxes), along with volcanic years (gold triangles). The three trend lines show that global temperature has been rising at a fairly consistent rate of about 0.15 - 0.17°C (0.27 - 0.31°F) once La Niña and El Niño departures are factored out. (Berkeley Earth)
CLAIM: "Many think that 2017 will be cooler than previous years. Myles Allen of Oxford University says that by the time of the next big United Nations climate conference, global temperatures are likely to be no warmer than the Paris COP in 2015. This would be a strange thing to happen if, as some climate scientists have claimed, recent years would have been a record even without the El Niño." (David Rose, U.K. Daily Mail, quoted by Breitbart)

TRUTH: There is nothing unusual about a drop in global surface temperatures when going from El Niño to La Nina. These ups and downs occur on top of the long-term warming trend that remains when the El Niño and La Niña signals are removed. If there were no long-term trend, then we would see global record lows occurring during the strongest La Niña events. However, the last year to see global temperatures hit a record low was 1911, and the most recent year that fell below the 20th-century average was 1976.

For an even deeper dive on the science, we recommend the blog by our experts.

Finally, to our friends at Breitbart: The next time you write a climate change article and need fact checking help, please call. We're here for you. I'm sure we both agree this topic is too important to get wrong.

Re: #246 - Patrap - just a quick note. Some of the logos have changed, from the 'official' ones. AltUSForestService and Rogue NASA have changed theirs.
Quoting 251. barbamz:


More breaking news (at least it's not boring to follow the news right now ;-): Mexican president scraps visit with Trump

Dem: Trump's EPA pick gave answers ‘shockingly devoid of substance’
The Hill, by Timothy Cama - 01/26/17 09:36 AM EST


Yes, the 'mass resignation' of 4 people that decided to quit because they were going to be fired anyway.

Awww....Mexican presidents are so cute sometimes when they get mad

I'll send you a questionnaire of 1000+ questions and we'll see how much substance you give each answer.

255. elioe
Quoting 247. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Godwin's law

"Godwin's law itself can be abused as a distraction, diversion or even as censorship, fallaciously miscasting an opponent's argument as hyperbole when the comparisons made by the argument are actually appropriate."


Anti-globalism can be part of fascism. Many of Trump's policies can be also incorporated in fascism. But, please show me, how comment #129 (see also #131 & #159), or Trump's policies in entirety, fit the full characteristics needed to make them equal to fascism. While you have made those findings, you can surely prove the fallacy in this case.

This discussion shouldn't exist, but someone ignored my flaggings...
NASA-GISS on Twitter: "Free/open access is available for dozens of science datasets (#climate, #planetary, others) & derived material."

https://data.giss.nasa.gov/
Quoting 254. BuckStrider:



Yes, the 'mass resignation' of 4 people that decided to quit because they were going to be fired anyway.
Downplay it if you will, but those who actually know things feel a bit differently about the situation:

"It’s the single biggest simultaneous departure of institutional memory that anyone can remember, and that’s incredibly difficult to replicate," said David Wade, who served as State Department chief of staff under Secretary of State John Kerry. "Department expertise in security, management, administrative and consular positions in particular are very difficult to replicate and particularly difficult to find in the private sector."

At any rate, I think I speak for a majority of Americans when I say we'd be happy to see the "mass resignation" of just one person from the very top of the Executive Branch.
Quoting 254. BuckStrider:



Yes, the 'mass resignation' of 4 people that decided to quit because they were going to be fired anyway.

Awww....Mexican presidents are so cute sometimes when they get mad

I'll send you a questionnaire of 1000+ questions and we'll see how much substance you give each answer.




I will ask you just two questions.

1. Where is the substance in your comment?

2. Where did you hear that these four individuals were going to be fired?

Please answer these two questions substantively. There are only two questions being asked of you. Anyone that wants to maintain an important position should be able answer any questions given to them with a certain degree subsistence in their answers, would you not agree? Simply because you wish to give him a pass on this does not mean that most people do not want to know how well this person could perform the duties being given him.
Quoting 257. Neapolitan:

Downplay it if you will, but those who actually know things feel a bit differently about the situation:

"It’s the single biggest simultaneous departure of institutional memory that anyone can remember, and that’s incredibly difficult to replicate," said David Wade, who served as State Department chief of staff under Secretary of State John Kerry. "Department expertise in security, management, administrative and consular positions in particular are very difficult to replicate and particularly difficult to find in the private sector."

At any rate, I think I speak for a majority of Americans when I say we'd be happy to see the "mass resignation" of just one person from the very top of the Executive Branch.


Who actually has more mass than the previous occupant.
A surprise heavy snow in our area. No advisory in our area until the snow arrived, even then it was only a winter weather advisory. Woke up to thundersnow Wednesday AM and wound up with 7 inches of extremely heavy wet heart attack. Gutter-think jokes need not reply.

Link

Climate change effects, solutions to be discussed on WPSU's 'Conversations LIVE'
Penn State faculty Richard Alley, Jonathan Brockopp and Michael Mann
to take viewers' questions during Jan. 26 broadcast
Penn State News - January 20, 2017.

The live broadcast, which encourages community input and interaction between viewers and guests, will air at 8 p.m. on Thursday, Jan. 26, on WPSU-TV, WPSU-FM and online at wpsu.org/live.
Quoting 254. BuckStrider:


Yes, the 'mass resignation' of 4 people that decided to quit because they were going to be fired anyway.

Awww....Mexican presidents are so cute sometimes when they get mad

I'll send you a questionnaire of 1000+ questions and we'll see how much substance you give each answer.



Awww...new members are so cute sometimes when they get mad - -


New Weather Satellites Can Spot Floods Before They Happen

With GOES-16’s 16 channels—two visible, four near-infrared, and 10 infrared, which you can see above—plus the heightened resolution, scientists can monitor everything from poisonous sulfur dioxide emissions from volcanic eruptions to melting snowpacks. “With this kind of resolution, if you were in New York City and you were taking a picture of Wrigley Field in Chicago, you’d be able to see home plate,” says Eric Webster, vice president and general manager of environmental solutions and space and intelligence systems for Harris, which built the GOES-16 payload. In order to amp up the amount and fidelity of data this much, GOES-16 is much bigger than its predecessors, too: Harris had to develop a nano-carbon composite material—Webster calls it “carbon cardboard”—to save launch weight and keep thermal expansion from messing with the focus.
HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH
AT 1310UTC 26 JANUARY 2017


Excerpt:

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC a Tropical Low was centred overland within 50 nautical miles of
latitude seventeen decimal six south (17.6S)
longitude one hundred and twenty two decimal six east (122.6E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 13 knots
Maximum winds : 15 knots
Central pressure: 998 hPa
The low is expected to develop as it moves off the coast into a tropical
cyclone in the next 24 to 36 hours but gales may develop on the southern sector
before the system reaches tropical cyclone intensity.




WTXS21 PGTW 261400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/


Excerpt:

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.1S 122.4E TO 18.7S 116.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 261200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1S 121.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
Quoting 254. BuckStrider:



Yes, the 'mass resignation' of 4 people that decided to quit because they were going to be fired anyway.

Awww....Mexican presidents are so cute sometimes when they get mad

I'll send you a questionnaire of 1000+ questions and we'll see how much substance you give each answer.




You think that was cute? Then you should check out this twitter page called @realDonaldTrump
From Grist:

1.5 degrees C may be closer than we thought

Most scientists studying global warming compare today’s temperatures to those of the late 19th century because that is as far back as quality temperature observations go. But a new study makes the case for a better comparison period, one that includes the warming that had already resulted by the middle of the 1800s and shows how close the world already is to breaching international warming targets.

Under the landmark 2015 Paris Agreement, countries agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions to keep global temperature rise “well below” 2 degrees C (3.6 degrees F) above preindustrial levels and limit it to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F) above that mark in order to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. But the agreement left undefined exactly what period is considered “preindustrial.”


Ed Hawkins

Most climate scientists use the second half of the 19th century as a stand-in for preindustrial times because of the lack of widespread temperature observations before that point. But as the Industrial Revolution was already underway by then, it is likely that there was already some human-caused warming by that point. A study published in Nature last year found a small, but detectable increase in global temperatures as far back as the 1830s for some parts of the world.

For the new study, detailed Wednesday in the journal Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, the authors suggested using 1720–1800 as a preindustrial period, because it is before greenhouse gas–spewing industrial activities kicked into gear but still relatively recent. It was also after the unusually cold period called the Little Ice Age driven by volcanic eruptions and solar activity.

“Reframing our definition of preindustrial to the 18th century makes a lot of scientific sense,” Nerilie Abram, one of the authors of the Nature study who was not involved with the new work, said in an email.

Read more here.
Quoting 255. elioe:



Anti-globalism can be part of fascism. Many of Trump's policies can be also incorporated in fascism. But, please show me, how comment #129 (see also #131 & #159), or Trump's policies in entirety, fit the full characteristics needed to make them equal to fascism. While you have made those findings, you can surely prove the fallacy in this case.

This discussion shouldn't exist, but someone ignored my flaggings...


I did not initiate the discussion and I only commented on your mentioning Godwin's law as your attempt to distract from the actual conversation that was being had. Were you to know your history then you would be aware as to how the Nazi Party came into existence and how Hitler came to lead the party. I am not saying that the Republican Party has morphed into the Nazi Party. I am not saying that Trump is now the leader of an offshoot of the Nazi Party. I am not saying the same results would happen as they did in Germany. What I am saying is that there are strong correlations between how the Nazi Party gained uncontested power over government in Germany and how the Republican Party is now gaining uncontested power over government in the U.S.. Both started with a populist movement, hoisted blame of the nation's problems onto others and both parties worked through laws that they could exploit.

Should you not see the similarities that have been pointed out to you on this then I suggest that you reexamine the issue using your critical thinking skills and to abandon your emotional leanings on this. This is the end of my discussion on this.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been using these satellites to study weather patterns for decades. But the new and improved GOES-R group of satellites will provide the best, high-resolution views of Earth to date, allowing for more accurate weather forecasts and storm prediction capabilities, according to NOAA.
I can't believe we are getting composite images from a satellite orbiting the earth in 2017. I am awestruck! does anyone think that the next multi-million dollar satellite could take a Polaroid of our planet earth? or do Polaroids not work in space? no, i'm thinking that in order for NASA to pull that off, they would have to send up a fully functional robot to arrange all the Polaroids correctly so they could then show us the composite image. Have one of your hi-tech cameras point itself in the direction of our home planet and capture one jpeg image and then tweet it to the stock holders, as is, no alterations, no editing. and just the one, not two, or 10, blended together, cause that would be a composite! one simple jpeg from a digital camera, without your unwanted touch ups or manipulations. If it turns out to be a poor image, fine, we still want to see it without edit. we can handle a poor quality pic. what we don't want to see is another super contrasted virtual reality 3D modeling of photo shopped 2D still pics on a pitch black starless backdrop.
A must read -

What The 'Rogue' EPA, NPS and NASA Twitter Accounts Teach Us About The Future Of Social

Yet, in conversations this afternoon with colleagues in the cyber security realm, a common theme that emerged was how dangerous this proliferation of unofficial social media accounts speaking on behalf of U.S. government agencies is from a cyber standpoint. In short, since we have no idea who is behind these accounts, we have no idea whether they truly are run by agency employees or whether they have been set up by hackers looking to spread ransomware, surveillance software, botnet infections or other harmful software by riding on the immense popularity of these sites and the lack of the authoritative “blue checkmark” proving who is who. Indeed, already @RogueNASA has been joined by @Alt_NASA, and numerous other resistance-style accounts are popping up.

In such a frenetic fast-paced environment, imagine a new @NASAResistance account being registered by a set of hackers who at first tweet out a flurry of climate change or science-related tweets, linking to agency publications and data sets, then gaining a large follower base. Quietly, the account then copies legitimate PDF and Word files, infects them with malware then links to them, riding the wave of current interest and popularity to generate a high volume of clicks. All it would take is a few well-timed tweets (perhaps right after a news report claiming the EPA was about to delete all of its climate data?) to result in tens of thousands of well-meaning citizens downloading a virus to their computer. Or, instead of sending links to virus-infected files, anti-climate change activists could post real data and publications, but make subtle changes to them, adjusting a few numbers here and there in ways that would not immediately be detectable. In the urgent grab-it-all-before-its-gone world of volunteers quickly downloading everything they can, one could easily propagate these modified files far and wide. If enough time elapses before anyone spots the errors, or if scientists begin to publish using their local copies without verifying them, it could undermine trust in the data.


Link
Quoting 272. Patrap:



9. Loon's
10. DOOM!!!

Did you see this one, Pat? I mean salute to them and I think this is totally awesome!

Environmentalists Are Planning A Major Climate Change March On The National Mall



An estimated 400,000 people attended the 2014 People's Climate March in New York City. (Photo by Jessica Lehman)

After drawing 400,000 people to the streets of Manhattan in 2014 to advocate for action on climate change, the People’s Climate Movement is planning a massive mobilization on the National Mall on April 29—Donald Trump's 99th day in office.

Organizing for the march was underway well before the results of the election, with the hope and general expectation that the coalition would be pushing Hillary Clinton to the left on climate issues. Instead, environmentalists are bracing for a much different fight.

"We need to save the progress we’ve made," says Paul Getsos, the national coordinator for the People's Climate Movement. "Were working to preserve our wins and move forward a proactive agenda as much as we can."

If the past few days are any indication, they'll have their work cut out for them, with executive actions to advance the Keystone and Dakota Access pipelines, a gag order on the Environmental Protection Agency, the deletion of the White House's climate change website and reports that the administration has ordered the EPA to remove its own climate change page, and much more expected in the weeks to come.

Trump recently described himself as "to a large extent, an environmentalist" before going on to say that regulations are "out of control." His nominee to lead the EPA is a climate change denier who has sued the agency 13 times.

"We were going to show up on April 29 to tell the next president, whoever it was, to tell them we need a big bold plan" to address climate change, Getsos says. "I think our messaging and our work is going to be bigger and bolder now."

The National Park Service confirmed that organizers have been in touch but a permit application has not yet been filed.

The Women's March on Washington appears to have marked the dawn of another era of massive mobilizations in the nation's capital. In addition to the climate march, efforts are also underway to plan a Scientists' March on Washington, an immigrants march on April 8, and a Tax Day march on April 15.

Click link to read more...
Member Since: December 31, 1969

Pretty slick, we all joined on the same day .
Quick look at the wildfires in Chile:

NASA Worldview - Terra/Modis (true color), January 26. Click picture to enlarge.


NASA Worldview - Terra/Modis (true color), January 26. Click picture to enlarge.


Screenshots made with pictures from
NASA Worldview
"Interactive interface for browsing full-resolution, global, near real-time satellite imagery."

Chile Wildfires Destroy Town as Record Heatwave Stokes Blaze
Bloomberg.com / Javiera Quiroga
January 26, 2017, 7:25 AM EST
Updated on January 26, 2017, 8:48 AM EST
# 279

Cool beans !
Quoting 246. Patrap:




Quoting 281. 999Ai2016:

Quick look at the wildfires in Chile:

NASA Worldview - Terra/Modis (true color), January 26. Click picture to enlarge.


NASA Worldview - Terra/Modis (true color), January 26. Click picture to enlarge.


Screenshots made with pictures from
NASA Worldview
"Interactive interface for browsing full-resolution, global, near real-time satellite imagery."

Chile Wildfires Destroy Town as Record Heatwave Stokes Blaze
Bloomberg.com / Javiera Quiroga
January 26, 2017, 7:25 AM EST
Updated on January 26, 2017, 8:48 AM EST


Should you wish to visualize how much CO2 is being emitting into the atmosphere by means of human activity then you could imagine the amount of smoke being put into the atmosphere from the fires across the planet being on fire. The difference is that the particulates in the smoke soon drop out of the atmosphere and CO2 persists in the atmosphere for decades, if not centuries. Were CO2 as visible to us as is the smoke from the fires then I suggest that there would likely be panic in streets over this. Out of sight, out of mind.
Quoting 280. RobertWC:

Member Since: December 31, 1969

Pretty slick, we all joined on the same day .


They've probably lost the timestamps of when people really joined. The Unix clock starts 23:59:59 12/31/1969.

Its timestamp is a 32 bit integer indicating the number of seconds since that time. The current value is 1,485,458,888 or so. This field overflows in calendar 2037 creating a very real Y2.037K problem for Unix and Linux systems where these timestamps are used in a lot of places.

But don't worry. We have plenty of time to fix it.


From AGU:

Icy clouds may actually increase, not decrease, the amount of solar energy that reaches Earth.

excerpt:

Overall, aerosols’ effect on cold boundary layer clouds and convective clouds has a net warming effect on global temperatures, reducing the cooling caused by reflected radiation by about half compared to estimates using only the low, relatively flat, warm boundary layer clouds, the team found. The findings suggest that cloud changes in response to increased aerosol pollution may not provide as much of a buffer against global warming as previously thought.

(I checked Google Scholar for a non-paywalled version of the research article, but no luck.)
"And on either side of the river was there a tree of life, which bare twelve manner of fruits, and yielded her fruit every month; And the leaves of the tree were for the healing of the nation.

Yes, thought Montag, that's the one I'll save for noon. For noon...

When we reach the city."

If you need more, just tell me!


Quoting 289. Patrap:

"And on either side of the river was there a tree of life, which bare twelve manner of fruits, and yielded her fruit every month; And the leaves of the tree were for the healing of the nation.

Yes, thought Montag, that's the one I'll save for noon. For noon...

When we reach the city."

If you need more, just tell me!



Holy cannoli that's a blast from the past
Quoting 289. Patrap:

"And on either side of the river was there a tree of life, which bare twelve manner of fruits, and yielded her fruit every month; And the leaves of the tree were for the healing of the nation.

Yes, thought Montag, that's the one I'll save for noon. For noon...

When we reach the city."

If you need more, just tell me!





Very "burning" words. :)
Day 1461 - 7. Link


We were mentioning the rainfall and precip in California earlier pursuant to the new drought forecast and I dug a little deeper this afternoon. Global precip is on the increase in Eurasia as well per this recent study. I can't post working links from this computer but here is the address and portion of the recent research abstract..............Another by-product of climate change (intense short-term flooding rain events in some regions while others remain subject to pervasive drought):
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/ e1600944

We show that annual convective precipitation total has been increasing astonishingly fast, at a rate of 18.4%/°C, of which 16% is attributable to an increase in convective precipitation occurrence, and 2.4% is attributable to increased daily intensity based on the 35 years of two (combined) historical data sets of 3-hourly synoptic observations and daily precipitation. We also reveal that annual daily precipitation extreme has been increasing at a rate of about 7.4%/°C in convective events only. Concurrently, the overall increase in mean daily precipitation intensity is mostly due to increased convective precipitation, possibly at the expanse of nonconvective precipitation. As a result, transitional seasons are becoming more summer-like as convective becomes the dominant precipitation type that has accompanied higher daily extremes and intensity since the late 1980s. The data also demonstrate that increasing convective precipitation and daily extremes appear to be directly linearly associated with higher atmospheric water vapor accompanying a warming climate over northern Eurasia.

About 260,000 hectares have been consumed by more than 100 separate fires, .................... 1,004 square miles
Quoting 295. weathermanwannabe:

We were mentioning the rainfall and precip in California earlier pursuant to the new drought forecast and I dug a little deeper this afternoon. Global precip is on the increase in Eurasia as well per this recent study. I can't post working links from this computer but here is the address and portion of the recent research abstract..............Another by-product of climate change (intense short-term flooding rain events in some regions while others remain subject to pervasive drought):
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/ e1600944

We show that annual convective precipitation total has been increasing astonishingly fast, at a rate of 18.4%/°C, of which 16% is attributable to an increase in convective precipitation occurrence, and 2.4% is attributable to increased daily intensity based on the 35 years of two (combined) historical data sets of 3-hourly synoptic observations and daily precipitation. We also reveal that annual daily precipitation extreme has been increasing at a rate of about 7.4%/°C in convective events only. Concurrently, the overall increase in mean daily precipitation intensity is mostly due to increased convective precipitation, possibly at the expanse of nonconvective precipitation. As a result, transitional seasons are becoming more summer-like as convective becomes the dominant precipitation type that has accompanied higher daily extremes and intensity since the late 1980s. The data also demonstrate that increasing convective precipitation and daily extremes appear to be directly linearly associated with higher atmospheric water vapor accompanying a warming climate over northern Eurasia.




That for every 1 F degree increase in Global Avg Temp imparts a 7-8% increase in Atmospheric Water Vapor...is making a impact Globally in rain events.

From Europe to Louisiana we see the PWAT's increasing globally.



The Human Induced forcings from burning fossil fuels remains the driver of Global Warming.

It continues, unabated.


Link

Seasonably cold here in Memphis today but my tulips are sprouting and the roses are beginning to bud.
Quoting 292. Grothar:



Very "burning" words. :)



Good to finally meet you, War & Peace.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #8
TROPICAL LOW 14U
3:10 AM WST January 27 2017
==================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 17.5S 120.7E or 170 km west northwest of Broome and 385 km northeast of Port Hedland has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving west at 17 knots.

The tropical low lies over water northwest of Broome and should continue tracking west southwest parallel to the Pilbara coast during Friday and Saturday. The tropical low will gradually strengthen and is likely to reach tropical cyclone intensity later Friday or Saturday.

DAMAGING WINDS with gusts to 100 km/h may develop in coastal parts between Pardoo Roadhouse and Mardie from Friday afternoon. DAMAGING WINDS may extend to coastal parts between Mardie and Exmouth on Saturday. DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 130 km/h are possible at Barrow Island and nearby islands.

Squally thunderstorms are expected along the west Kimberley and Pilbara coasts.

Further heavy rainfall and flooding is likely over the Kimberley, extending to coastal parts of the Pilbara during Friday. Flood Warnings are current. For further details please refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/.

Tides will be higher than expected along the Pilbara coast on Friday night and Saturday.

Forecast and Intensity
===================
12 HRS 18.1S 118.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 18.9S 116.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 20.0S 111.2E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS 20.5S 108.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)

Additional Information
==================
The center of the tropical low was found using a combination of satellite imagery, surface wind observations and Broome radar. The location was difficult to identify due to radar showing a broad circulation with possibly multiple embedded centers.

DVORAK analysis is a CI of 1.5 based mainly on a curved band of 0.2. Initial classification was 1.5 at 1500UTC when it moved over open water. Pattern T number is also 1.5.

Nearby Rowley Shoals has been averaging 30 knots, but is under a line of thunderstorms and also a reasonable distance from the center. System intensity is set to 25 knots.

Environment is favorable for development. There is abundant moisture feeding into this system and there are outflow channels evident, mainly to the north. Wind shear is estimated as an east southeasterly 10 to 15 knots from CIMMS.

The system will continue to be steered to the west southwest due to a mid level ridge to the south. Numerical Weather Prediction guidance is in good agreement for this track. The system may reach category 2 before it encounters cooler sea surface temperatures west of 113.0E. Winds and waves on the southern side will be enhanced due to the system's translation speed and ridge to the south.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=======================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING has been issued for parts of the Western Australia region from Pardoo to Mardie including Port Hedland and Karratha

A TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH has been issued for parts of the Western Australia region from Mardie to Ningaloo including Onslow and Exmouth
281. 999Ai2016
Scribbler posted on this yesterday afternoon , he was reporting 733 sq miles burnt. Per your link , they have lost 270 sq. miles in just one night.

He also had the Lance Modis shot from the 21st

"Terra/MODIS 2017/021 01/21/2017 15:15 UTC Fires in central Chile"

Rogue Twitter accounts spring up to fight Donald Trump on climate change
By Darryl Fears and Kayla Epstein January 25 at 3:27 PM


What started as a gritty protest by a former Badlands National Park Service employee who wanted to give President Trump a piece of his mind snowballed overnight Tuesday and early Wednesday into a Twitter movement in support of climate change science.

An anonymous group of people who claim to be National Park Service employees created an account using the agency’s official arrowhead logo as an avatar and unleashed on the Trump administration for muzzling federal workers, particularly those at the Environmental Protection Agency who have been barred from speaking to the press and public through social media.


Like the Badlands tweeter, who amassed more than 60,000 followers in a day, AltUSNatParkService became a sensation. By noon, it had nearly half a million followers.

As Tuesday’s work day wound down, the National Park Service explained that officials at Badlands rooted out an ex-employee who still had access to its Twitter account and shut down his tweets. But AltUSNatParkService soon picked up where he left off, rapidly spitting climate change facts with the forcefulness of rappers such as Kendrick Lamar.

[For a few hours, Badlands National Park was bad to the bone in defiance of Trump]

The tweets were factual jabs at the Trump administration, which sent marching orders to the EPA, National Park Service and the Forest Service under the Department of Agriculture to stop disseminating climate facts, decline calls from reporters and drop scheduled meetings with media. The administration’s stance toward the science may have had such a chilling effect that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention voluntarily canceled a climate change meeting.

AltUSNatParkService offered a reminder that the vast majority of climate scientist say climate change is real, and it added in other tweets that scientists around the world are certain that human activity is the driving force behind the global warming.

Follow
AltUSNatParkService @AltNatParkSer
Here's NASA's extended list of US scientific community's consensus on climate change. Recommended reading .@POTUS http://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus …
6:16 PM - 24 Jan 2017
Photo published for Scientific Consensus
Scientific Consensus
Most leading scientific organizations worldwide have issued public statements endorsing the position that climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities.
climate.nasa.gov
429 429 Retweets 534 534 likes
Other protest accounts sprouted, according to Alice Stollmeyer, who compiled a list on Twitter. AltYosemiteNPS, AltYellowstoneNatPar, AltUSForestService, AltBadlandsNatPark, Resistance_NASA, Rogue NASA and Rogue NOAA are just a few.

Appearing to join the fray, Death Valley National Park tweeted about the discrimination that led to Japanese internment camps during World War II at about the time on the same day Trump released harsher immigration screens aimed at Muslim refugees.

View image on Twitter
View image on Twitter
Follow
Death Valley NP ✔ @DeathValleyNPS
"We want the opportunity they have to prove their loyalty. We are asked to accept a denial of that privilege in the name of patriotism."
10:28 AM - 25 Jan 2017
8,485 8,485 Retweets 14,923 14,923 likes
Jenna Ruddock of the District owns one of the rogue sites, U.S. Science Service, or @natlsciservice. It started, the 25-year-old journalist and documentary filmmaker said, with a conversation with a colleague Tuesday night. “Wouldn’t it be great if people started making rogue Twitter accounts to publicize science being done by agencies that are currently under media blackout?”

[A running list of all the possible subtweets of President Trump from government Twitter accounts]

Her answer was, “Yeah … great.”

“The major impact [of these rogue accounts] is that people are taking note, and it’s raising red flags all over the place,” Ruddock said. “One of the riskiest things would be for censorship, whether it’s of journalists or of scientific institutions, to go unnoticed. Censorship is a very slippery slope.”

Badlands had people up in arms over threats to the Park Service, she said, “but there are also other government institutions that would be at risk and I wanted to be able to highlight the great science being done by all of our government agencies.”

Follow
U.S. Science Service @NatlSciService
Honestly, if we're building walls, Florida could really use one around its entire coastline @realDonaldTrump @POTUS #ClimateChangeIsReal
9:21 AM - 25 Jan 2017


: P
And here are the sat shots for the storm in the Southern Hemisphere and current Global Precip (rain only and not snow):



I'm really not sure what all the protesting is about. Trump is completely for changing climate science.
And I do not know how/where the Squirrels fit into the climate change issue but did notice, during my first trip to DC and Mass in Winter around Christmas, that most of the Squirrels running around in the snow at the National Mall and in Mass were all very nice and chubby ones as compared to the skinny runts that I see every day in North Florida.....
Quoting 299. snotly:

I recently read that Venus's global warming continued because of a feed back loop occurred when it's stratosphere warmed as it's troposphere warmed, here on earth the stratosphere is cooling as the troposphere warms, this will still lead to our doom because of you know,... squirrels!


No physics , Venus has a thick atmosphere of Co2.
EPA
Ebell proposes slashing staff to Nixon-era levels

Robin Bravender, E&E News reporter
Published: Thursday, January 26, 2017

The leader of President Trump's U.S. EPA transition team wants to see the agency's 15,000-person staff axed to about 5,000 employees.

"I think getting down to 5,000 in the first term is a goal," said Myron Ebell of the Competitive Enterprise Institute, who headed the Trump team preparing for the administration changeover at EPA.

With his transition tenure over, Ebell cautioned that he was speaking for himself, but he pointed to Trump's comments as a presidential candidate that he wanted to eliminate EPA. Trump has since said that he wants to "refocus the EPA on its core mission."

"President Trump during the campaign identified the EPA as a major obstacle to economic recovery and growth and he said that he wanted to either abolish it or leave a little bit," Ebell said today in an interview. "He's not going to abolish it in a year; he's going to take a while or leave a little bit. The first thing that's going to need to be done is to start downsizing the agency."

Ebell's comments come as workers at EPA and other agencies across government brace for major budget cuts. One of Trump's first actions as president was to freeze federal hiring, and his first budget blueprint in the coming months is likely to offer a comprehensive look at what environmental programs he wants to scale back or eliminate.

Slashing EPA's staff to 5,000 would put the agency close to the numbers it had when it was created by President Nixon. EPA started with about 4,000 employees in 1970. But in recent years, the staff has hovered between 14,000 and 18,000 employees, with an annual budget of about $8 billion.

Ebell's goal would cut EPA's staff to about a third of its current size. "I think it's a very steep goal," he said. "If you're going to get anywhere, you've got to have high aspirations."

Ebell, a vocal critic of the EPA's policies under President Obama, said he sees some obvious places for cuts.

Much of EPA's budget passes through the agency toward clean water and clean air programs that are run by the states. "That raises the question," Ebell said. "What are all these people in the EPA air and safe drinking water offices doing?"

And he said the Obama administration's move to put air staff into a climate program was an indication that they weren't needed in the air office. "It seems to me that there are real opportunities for cuts there," he said.

Ebell would also like to see EPA's regional staffs cut back. About half of EPA's staff is located in 10 regional offices throughout the country. Those offices "can be cut significantly over time," he said.

Such drastic cutbacks would be certain to spark an outcry among environmentalists, federal workers and others who are already mounting their opposition to the Trump administration (see related story).

Christine Todd Whitman, who was EPA administrator in President George W. Bush's first term, said staff cuts along those lines would mean the agency couldn't do its job "the way it should be doing it or has been doing it." In the regional offices, she said, staff are needed "to be able to try to meld the programs to work for the challenges in that individual state."

Broadly, Whitman said, she finds the Trump administration's early actions toward EPA "very troubling."

"I've been worried from the very beginning that this was the one area that the president was going to keep his campaign promises without changing them much," she said. "This is an area where I think he is absolutely focused and determined and he doesn't like regulation."

Ebell said the new administration has been unfairly criticized for scaling back social media and pausing some spending.

"The fact is that every transition involves taking control of the communications operation, the regulatory pipeline, the spending, the grants, the contracts," he said.

"I think that the environmental community is trying to find anything that they can throw against the wall if something sticks," he said.


Twitter: @rbravender Email: rbravender@eenews.net
Re: EPA - Anyone remember the Anne Gorsuch train wreck in the early 80s? This is shaping up to be sooo much worse.
Time to quote A Lincoln -

"Better to remain silent have people think you a fool , than to speak-up and remove all doubt. "
Quoting 314. RobertWC:

Time to quote A Lincoln -

"Better to remain silent have people think you a fool , than to speak-up and remove all doubt. "


Quote by Twain: April 1st. A day in which we are reminded of what we are the other 364 days of the year.
Quoting 295. weathermanwannabe:

We were mentioning the rainfall and precip in California earlier pursuant to the new drought forecast and I dug a little deeper this afternoon. Global precip is on the increase in Eurasia as well per this recent study. I can't post working links from this computer but here is the address and portion of the recent research abstract..............Another by-product of climate change (intense short-term flooding rain events in some regions while others remain subject to pervasive drought):
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/ e1600944

We show that annual convective precipitation total has been increasing astonishingly fast, at a rate of 18.4%/°C, of which 16% is attributable to an increase in convective precipitation occurrence, and 2.4% is attributable to increased daily intensity based on the 35 years of two (combined) historical data sets of 3-hourly synoptic observations and daily precipitation. We also reveal that annual daily precipitation extreme has been increasing at a rate of about 7.4%/°C in convective events only. Concurrently, the overall increase in mean daily precipitation intensity is mostly due to increased convective precipitation, possibly at the expanse of nonconvective precipitation. As a result, transitional seasons are becoming more summer-like as convective becomes the dominant precipitation type that has accompanied higher daily extremes and intensity since the late 1980s. The data also demonstrate that increasing convective precipitation and daily extremes appear to be directly linearly associated with higher atmospheric water vapor accompanying a warming climate over northern Eurasia.


The end of droughts?
Quoting 314. RobertWC:

Time to quote A Lincoln -

"Better to remain silent have people think you a fool , than to speak-up and remove all doubt. "

I'm really rather proud. I've never broken a person with a single rodent before now. Just think what I could have done with a marsupial!

Hmm...maybe I'll go pro.
The number of confirmed tornadoes from Saturday-Monday is up to 64, and surveys are continuing across Georgia and Florida.

If Sunday had not busted across the high risk area, we may have been dealing with the largest winter outbreak on record.

Link
Quoting 192. weathermanwannabe:

On that sonic boom issue, and one resident reporting seeing a glowing light in the sky, it sounds like a daytime meteor coming in; they usually do not fly the "experimental" planes out of Tonopah or Groom Lake, which have caused the evening and early am booms we often heard in the in the past on the West coast, during the day.

Kugelblitz (astrophysics)
326. OKsky
Flag buttons are producing this js error:

https://www.wunderground.com/wuflag/flag.html?typ e=blog&handle=JeffMasters&flag=spam&entrynum=3547& tstamp=-1&commentnum=snotly|318 Failed to load resource: the server responded with a status of 500 ()


Edit: Then again what do you expect... the server is still partying like its 1969. =P
Quoting 316. Kenfa03:

The end of droughts?

Non necessarily. Convective precipitation has a higher % that turns to runoff when compared to stratiform precipitation. If you want to mitigate droughts, you want infiltration.
Al Gore will host cancelled climate change summit
The Hill - 01/26/17 04:32 PM EST
Former vice president and climate activist Al Gore is teaming up with the American Public Health Association and other organizations to hold a summit on climate change and health that the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cancelled earlier this week.
The CDC quietly cancelled the summit after President Trump's inauguration, telling reporters it was "exploring options to reschedule the meeting." The scientific community has accused CDC officials of cancelling the event out of fear of the Trump administration. ...

More see link above.

EPA staff experiencing stress and fears Trump will suppress climate science
Environmental Protection Agency spokesman says employees are anxious after Trump team placed a hold on the release of work and edited website
The Guardian, Thursday 26 January 2017 19.35 GMT
Bernie Sanders:
‏@SenSanders

President Trump, you made a big mistake. By trying to divide us up by race, religion, gender and nationality you actually brought us closer.

Quoting 299. snotly:

I recently read that Venus's global warming continued because of a feed back loop occurred when it's stratosphere warmed as it's troposphere warmed, here on earth the stratosphere is cooling as the troposphere warms, this will still lead to our doom because of you know,... squirrels!


That isn't even remotely correct. You certainly didn't read it from any peer reviewed research article on the subject.

Once you get outside of the dense lower atmosphere of Venus the temperatures rapidly drop, consistent with physics and chemistry. The surface temperature of the whole planet remains around 800C no matter where you are, thanks to the intense greenhouse effect.

The upper atmosphere of Venus is actually the most Earth-like of any planet in our solar system..

Due to it's slow sidreal motion, a runaway greenhouse effect was triggered once the sun became warm enough evaporate it's oceans (essentially tidally locked to the sun). This in turn allowed the surface to bake and release large amounts of CO2 from both the ocean water as well as surface rock. Combined with volcanic activity, a massive greenhouse feedback loop accelerated the whole process and turned Venus into the equivalent of a global convective oven. Without the immense greenhouse effect, if Venus actually had a magnetosphere to protect it's atmosphere from the solar wind (and a regular day) it wouldn't be all that much different from Earth temperature wise.

Physics, chemistry, and math. Not "alternative facts".
Quoting 316. Kenfa03:

The end of droughts?


I doubt it; many papers have documented spreading desert conditions in many regions in South America and the Middle East (the Sahara is growing) so droughts may become worse in some parts. The gist of the research is that we are seeing more "rain" related flooding/down pour events in many regions while actual "snow" precipitation (which actually provides the world with about 80% of fresh water from snow pack) is declining drastically in many regions including the Himalyan basin region..............Everything is off-kilter and it will take a few decades to see which regions dry out while others will face pervasive flooding on a regular basis from short-term rain events.
Willful ignorance,esp the current form evolving into open Fascism,huddles in the safety of anonymity and they will never accept factual information as it would penetrate that bubble and they would dissolve.

Semper Fi'
Quoting 322. EmsiNasklug:


Kugelblitz (astrophysics)


Are you suggesting that the ball of light that some folks reported seeing over San Diego was the "Mothership" coming out of warp speed and de-cloaking as it reached Earth after traveling here through a wormhole caused by a black hole out there somewhere?......................... :)
Quoting 295. weathermanwannabe:

We were mentioning the rainfall and precip in California earlier pursuant to the new drought forecast and I dug a little deeper this afternoon. Global precip is on the increase in Eurasia as well per this recent study. I can't post working links from this computer but here is the address and portion of the recent research abstract..............Another by-product of climate change (intense short-term flooding rain events in some regions while others remain subject to pervasive drought):
http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/3/1/ e1600944

We show that annual convective precipitation total has been increasing astonishingly fast, at a rate of 18.4%/°C, of which 16% is attributable to an increase in convective precipitation occurrence, and 2.4% is attributable to increased daily intensity based on the 35 years of two (combined) historical data sets of 3-hourly synoptic observations and daily precipitation. We also reveal that annual daily precipitation extreme has been increasing at a rate of about 7.4%/°C in convective events only. Concurrently, the overall increase in mean daily precipitation intensity is mostly due to increased convective precipitation, possibly at the expanse of nonconvective precipitation. As a result, transitional seasons are becoming more summer-like as convective becomes the dominant precipitation type that has accompanied higher daily extremes and intensity since the late 1980s. The data also demonstrate that increasing convective precipitation and daily extremes appear to be directly linearly associated with higher atmospheric water vapor accompanying a warming climate over northern Eurasia.


Here's the link: Rapid decadal convective precipitation increase over Eurasia during the last three decades of the 20th century

It's the full article, no paywall/open access :D

Thanks for sharing this one!
Those who poo poo UFO activity, should ask Grothar and myself about TEAMWORK 84" NATO Exercise in Northern Norway,.....

We were supporting the USMC Air Wing, and Grothar was in the Army doing His work as well.

DoD reports are many.

Though the file access is restricted, verbatim and eyewitness reports circulate even here.




On the UFO issue, the son of one of my Father's good friends was an AF pilot doing photography training (in an F-4 Recon Version) over the Bahamas region and he spotted/chased a UFO, apparently got footage of the incident, and he and the Pilot were met on the tarmac by the base intelligence officer, the film was unloaded from the plane, and they were debriefed after the flight of what they saw; I heard that firsthand during a dinner conversation at the house many years ago (I was about 14 and this was in the 70's). I have never seen one but discount 90% of all of the reported sightings at night involving "lights" whether flying, hovering, etc. If UFOs are visiting the Earth, they are not subject to local FAA regs and will not have running lights anywhere on the edges of the ships and/or want to announce their arrival. The incident that I heard about happened in the day-time near the Bahamas............We will never know what was on that film.
Comment: Crazy times in the Arctic by Mark C. Serreze.
Earth Magazine - January 23, 2017.
Seems we are being watched by other interests.

A Blog hole the size of Newark was poofed.

Sensitive incidents trigger sensitive censor.

UFO UFO...Are we not allowed to speak of them? 340-343??
IBM is in the know?

And I was just talking about Close Encounters and the mash potatoes scene the other day!
And on that note, everyone have a safe weather evening and see Yall in the am.
Quoting 346. Patrap:

Seems we are being watched by other interests.

A Blog hole the size of Newark was poofed.

Sensitive incidents trigger sensitive censor.



The squirrel gif was my favorite post of the day, too...
333. Xyrus2000

Venus. ............ excellent summery there.
Of all the zombie denier fur balls that get hacked up , it's the "Vikings farming Greenland", and "All the other planets are warming". That really make me laugh. But Venus is always never mentioned .
A rather interesting thing that pairs with Venus, is Mercury , wich has zero atmosphere . But has ice in the permanent shadows near the poles.

NASA 2012 -
Mercury would seem to be one of the least likely places in the solar system to find ice. The closest planet to the Sun has temperatures which can reach over 700 K. The local day on the surface of Mercury is 176 earth-days, so the surface is slowly rotating under a relentless assault from the Sun. Nonetheless, Earth-based radar imaging of Mercury has revealed areas of high radar reflectivity near the north and south poles, which could be indicative of the presence of ice in these regions (1-3). There appear to be dozens of these areas with generally circular shapes. Presumably, the ice is located within permanently shadowed craters near the poles, where it may be cold enough for ice to exist over long periods of time. The discovery of ice on the Earth's moon can only serve to strengthen the arguments for ice on Mercury.
Link

Two years later -

First Photos of Water Ice on Mercury Captured by NASA Spacecraft

Since there is no way for heat to be conducted around the planet , IE oceans, and atmosphere . It's 700K in the sunlight, and small amounts of ice in the shadows.

Now, after we wreck this house, we'll all fly away to the green, green, fields of Mars.
Quoting 332. Xandra:

Bernie Sanders:
‏@SenSanders

President Trump, you made a big mistake. By trying to divide us up by race, religion, gender and nationality you actually brought us closer.





Turn that around 180 degrees and it's not fake news anymore.
Quoting 304. RobertWC:

281. 999Ai2016
Scribbler posted on this yesterday afternoon , he was reporting 733 sq miles burnt. Per your link , they have lost 270 sq. miles in just one night.

He also had the Lance Modis shot from the 21st

"Terra/MODIS 2017/021 01/21/2017 15:15 UTC Fires in central Chile"



Idk, maybe these are rough estimates, so can we already know exactly how many more square miles have burned in 12, or 24 hours?
By the way, this "record heatwave" mentioned by Bloomberg in their headline, well it's not an exaggeration. I've heard new record highs have been set in at least two new locations in Chile today*. More details coming soon I suppose.
(by the way, the image you linked won't show, for me at least)

*Here, one tweet: Link
Another one: Link
Quoting 334. weathermanwannabe:



I doubt it; many papers have documented spreading desert conditions in many regions in South America and the Middle East (the Sahara is growing) so droughts may become worse in some parts. The gist of the research is that we are seeing more "rain" related flooding/down pour events in many regions while actual "snow" precipitation (which actually provides the world with about 80% of fresh water from snow pack) is declining drastically in many regions including the Himalyan basin region..............Everything is off-kilter and it will take a few decades to see which regions dry out while others will face pervasive flooding on a regular basis from short-term rain events.
Thanks. Texas 2011 drought was something I hope to never witness again.
Quoting 197. snotly:

There's a lot of plolitically motivated comments here aimed at inciting arguments and I believe they should be blocked. Examples such as : "the resistance" etc.

I was personally blocked last week for much less. At least be unbiased and consistent .

I'm just as "unbiased" as the selection of King EXXON for Sec of State.
Quoting 275. frank727:

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been using these satellites to study weather patterns for decades. But the new and improved GOES-R group of satellites will provide the best, high-resolution views of Earth to date, allowing for more accurate weather forecasts and storm prediction capabilities, according to NOAA.
I can't believe we are getting composite images from a satellite orbiting the earth in 2017. I am awestruck! does anyone think that the next multi-million dollar satellite could take a Polaroid of our planet earth? or do Polaroids not work in space? no, i'm thinking that in order for NASA to pull that off, they would have to send up a fully functional robot to arrange all the Polaroids correctly so they could then show us the composite image. Have one of your hi-tech cameras point itself in the direction of our home planet and capture one jpeg image and then tweet it to the stock holders, as is, no alterations, no editing. and just the one, not two, or 10, blended together, cause that would be a composite! one simple jpeg from a digital camera, without your unwanted touch ups or manipulations. If it turns out to be a poor image, fine, we still want to see it without edit. we can handle a poor quality pic. what we don't want to see is another super contrasted virtual reality 3D modeling of photo shopped 2D still pics on a pitch black starless backdrop.


JPEGs, by definition, are altered. So are every other form of digital photograph. The closest you're going to get to "unaltered" would be RAW, and even that is altered by the firmware of the system to compensate for the characteristic of the sensor being used.

Pure raw binary dumps of CMOS/CCD sensors are useless without knowing the characteristics of the sensor, and most people wouldn't have any idea what to do with them even if they had them.

The "starless sky" effect has nothing to do with processing. It's basic photography. If you're taking a picture of a bright object, you have to adjust the exposure time accordingly or otherwise you'll saturate the sensor. The Earth is a very bright object, especially in comparison to background stars. The exposure time doesn't allow enough time for the sensor register the light from the stars, hence a starless sky.

High resolution scientific cameras don't use generic CCD/CMOS sensors like you find in everyday cameras. They use high sensitivity sensors with selectable filters. They use these filters to capture various detailed information about the object being observed. Sometimes this includes representative R, G, and B filters and other times it doesn't. Regardless, in order to create a color image the individual captures have to be composited and adjusted or it just ends up being a big mess.
Ground water pumping ..............
Arizona Geological Survey finds new fissure in Pinal County

The Arizona Geological Survey has discovered a new crack in Pinal County.

The Geological Survey announced Monday that they found the fissure, which they explored with drone video. The fissure is about 25 miles south of Arizona City.

The fissure is believed to have formed between March 2013 and December 2014. It is more than half a mile longer than other fissures in the area.


This thing is 2 miles long.

Link
Deadly wildfire razes entire town in Chile: 'Literally like Dante's Inferno'
One body found in smouldering ruins of Santa Olga, the worst-hit of several smaller communities, as hot, dry weather fuels fiercest fires in recent history
The Guardian, Jonathan Watts, Latin America correspondent, and Mauricio Weibel in Santiago, Thursday 26 January 2017 22.25 GMT


Dron muestra la devastación en Santa Olga

354. 999Ai2016

The Modis Gallery threw up a daily shot since , 1-21- 2017. Here's his post from yesterday , he ties it into the larger drying going on in South America.

Chilean Wildfires are Worst to Ever Strike the Country

On that thread is this ...

Floods lash Bolivia and Peru
Torrential rains lead to widespread flooding across parts of central South America.


Link
Quoting 251. barbamz:


More breaking news (at least it's not boring to follow the news right now ;-): Mexican president scraps visit with Trump

Dem: Trump's EPA pick gave answers ‘shockingly devoid of substance’
The Hill, by Timothy Cama - 01/26/17 09:36 AM EST
Thank you for keeping us informed. We do not get that from the new "free" 'Merica"
Quoting 343. weathermanwannabe:

On the UFO issue, the son of one of my Father's good friends was an AF pilot doing photography training (in an F-4 Recon Version) over the Bahamas region and he spotted/chased a UFO, apparently got footage of the incident, and he and the Pilot were met on the tarmac by the base intelligence officer, the film was unloaded from the plane, and they were debriefed after the flight of what they saw; I heard that firsthand during a dinner conversation at the house many years ago (I was about 14 and this was in the 70's). I have never seen one but discount 90% of all of the reported sightings at night involving "lights" whether flying, hovering, etc. If UFOs are visiting the Earth, they are not subject to local FAA regs and will not have running lights anywhere on the edges of the ships and/or want to announce their arrival. The incident that I heard about happened in the day-time near the Bahamas............We will never know what was on that film.



Any civilization capable of interstellar travel would have technology so far beyond our own they would easily be able to escape detection, including visible detection. They would have mastered fusion, death, gravity, metamaterials, and even exotic matter. They could land a ship on the White House lawn and no one would even know it was there.

So if aliens were actually visiting our planet and people are actually seeing them, then the aliens simply don't care. We certainly don't pose any sort of a threat. Any interstellar civilization would have solved their resource problems long ago. And if they wanted to destroy us they could do so without ever coming near our planet. Other than curiosity there's not much reason for an advanced civilization to come here, let alone open a dialog of any sort.
359. barbamz

"Get ready little lady , hell is coming to breakfast"

Lone Wati
From The Huffington Post:

We Know What The Country Looks Like Without The EPA: Filthy

Donald Trump and his administration may trash-talk environmental enforcers, but America looked a lot worse without them.



Soon after the Environmental Protection Agency was created in 1970, it began a monumental project to photograph the United States, in all its industrial glory.

The initiative, dubbed Documerica, employed more than 100 freelance photographers to capture “images relating to environmental problems, EPA activities, and everyday life.” From 1972 to 1977, they took more than 81,000 photos, many before the EPA instituted programs to clean up the country’s fouled landscapes, air and waterways.

“By the late 1960s, the American landscape was ravaged by decades of unchecked land development, blighted by urban decay in the big cities, and plagued by seemingly unstoppable air, noise, and water pollution,” C. Jerry Simmons, an archivist and historian at the National Archives in Washington, wrote in 2009. “The project takes rightful credit for the United States’ first serious examination of its rapidly decaying natural environment.”

The EPA tasked each of its photographers with documenting a specific environmental problem in certain areas, from noise pollution in Boston to health impacts on coal miners in West Virginia.

More than 15,000 images from the Documerica series were published online in 2009. Simmons wrote then that many of the ills shown in the photos continued to plague the country:

“When we look at images of today’s environment, we can see that what troubles the environment in the new millennium is what troubled it in the early 1970s, and DOCUMERICA confirms it. Thousands of images of pollution, strip mining, crowded cities, and land abuse could well be photographs taken in recent times. Though a great deal has been done over the past 30 years to correct problems depicted in the photographs, there is a common consensus that there is so much left to accomplish in the race to save America’s natural resources.”


Click here to read the full article with more images of America as it existed during the EPA’s advent
Quoting 286. Some1Has2BtheRookie:

Should you wish to visualize how much CO2 is being emitting into the atmosphere
by means of human activity then you could imagine the amount of smoke being put
into the atmosphere from the fires across the planet being on fire. The difference
is that the particulates in the smoke soon drop out of the atmosphere and CO2 persists
in the atmosphere for decades, if not centuries. Were CO2 as visible to us as is the
smoke from the fires then I suggest that there would likely be panic in streets over this.
Out of sight, out of mind.

Personally I don't think there would be panic in streets over this, but on this topic I just found that:

Youtube link
Look at the plants breathing in and out every single day...
The fires in Chile -
This Fort McMurray all over again , except their vines were lost , small framers lost 120 year old vines. The government is moving in heavy equipment to bury the dead livestock. Who knows that number.

A word to the mods , when these folks come on, and "make fun" about human death and suffering . On a scale we've never seen , and you fail to take them down , you fail us all . When 270 sq miles burns in one night . that's not toy or a game.
Now , I've had pleasure of being banned here many times for up to 39 hours. But I never made "fun" of human death and suffering . I deserved every ban I received. I broke the rules. But this display today was really sickening. And knowing all the rules , and where the lines get drawn . I tried to skate line. But this was really sad. My blood was boiling when teenage thinking was being "witty" about 270 sq miles of peoples homes burning to the ground.

Now I've dinged you in the past , and have been banned for that. And you can ding me now. But this was not your finest day.
365. Xandra
12:04 AM GMT on January 27, 2017
3 +
From The Huffington Post:

We Know What The Country Looks Like Without The EPA: Filthy


Or flooded ............

One explanation for so many visits by UFO's is that they have been searching Earth for intelligent life. The way things are, they may have a long wait.
New York City's greenhouse gas emissions as one-ton spheres of carbon dioxide gas

In 2010 New York City added 54 million metric tons of carbon dioxide (equivalent) to the atmosphere, but that number means little to most people because few of us have a sense of scale for atmospheric pollution.

Carbon Visuals (http://www.carbonvisuals.com) and Environmental Defense Fund (https://www.edf.org/climate/cleanenergy) wanted to make those emissions feel a bit more real - the total emissions and the rate of emission. Designed to engage the 'person on the street', this version is exploratory and still work in progress. Mayor Bloomberg's office has not been involved in the creation or dissemination of this video.

NYC carbon footprint:

54,349,650 tons a year = 148,903 tons a day = 6,204 tons an hour = 1.72 tons a second

At standard pressure and 59 °F a metric ton of carbon dioxide gas would fill a sphere 33 feet across (density of CO₂ = 1.87 kg/m³: http://bit.ly/CO2_datasheet). If this is how New York's emissions actually emerged we would see one of these spheres emerge every 0.58 seconds.

Live now:

Climate change effects, solutions to be discussed on WPSU's 'Conversations LIVE'
Penn State faculty Richard Alley, Jonathan Brockopp and Michael Mann
to take viewers' questions during Jan. 26 broadcast.
The live broadcast, which encourages community input and interaction between viewers and guests, will air at 8 p.m. on Thursday, Jan. 26, on WPSU-TV, WPSU-FM and online at

wpsu.org/live

Edit: Not live anymore...
Now for something old that is new here.
Children Of The Sun


Interesting disturbance in the ITCZ in the Eastern Pacific. Looks like a stacked low with tropical characteristics.
Quoting 374. RobertWC:

Now for something old that is new here.
Children Of The Sun





I wish the solar companies would ban together on Sunday morning and run this with their ad.
Quoting 376. RobertWC:




I wish the solar companies would ban together on Sunday morning and run this with their ad.



Children of Sun , Children of Sun , Children of Sun , Children of Sun ,
Quoting 377. RobertWC:



Children of Sun , Children of Sun , Children of Sun , Children of Sun ,


Better than Children of the Corn...

Nice and warm today in Anchorage. Temps hit a blistering +46F making the roads a mess. 5 school buses in the ditch, dozens of cars in the ditch and in accidents. Apparently when it rains on top of snow the roads get slick. Rain tonight turns to snow, so it could be another bad day tomorrow on the roads. Very slushy out, but below freezing temps at night will make the morning commute a pain. At least I don't have to worry about where to put the next big dump of snow we get... A lot has melted down.
It was my chance as the Hatch door was open and the stairs down...

Gonzo is a neat Machine indeed.

Looks like climate science will only be the first casualty. Check out Steve Bannon's latest interview. No, you're not reading a 1930's Nazi propaganda article. This is the top adviser to the president of the US.

I think I'll expand my data archiving operations and helping archiving projects move their data to non-US locations. The attacks on science and education are just the beginning.
Quoting 379. Patrap:

It was my chance as the Hatch door was open and the stairs down...

Gonzo is a neat Machine indeed.




You lucky dawg. :)
Quoting 380. Xyrus2000:

Looks like climate science will only be the first casualty. Check out Steve Bannon's latest interview. No, you're not reading a 1930's Nazi propaganda article. This is the top adviser to the president of the US.

I think I'll expand my data archiving operations and helping archiving projects move their data to non-US locations. The attacks on science and education are just the beginning.


I believe one poster here, I have the quote saved,,.stated after the election..

"theres a new sheriff in town."...

Yup.

ALso Trump was elected.

: P

I am in Handsome Dick Stalder's Cabin cabin 47 years ago. At 10,800 feet. He is making jewelry under the light of solar power, at Slaughterhouse Creek, Colorado. He was a genius/ artist He made his solar power plant by grit , brains, and guts.
Quoting 369. RobertWC:

365. Xandra
12:04 AM GMT on January 27, 2017
3 +
From The Huffington Post:

We Know What The Country Looks Like Without The EPA: Filthy


Or flooded ............




and rivers burning


and Love Canal


From The Weather Channel to Breitbart News

Note to Breitbart: Earth Is Not Cooling, Climate Change Is Real and Please Stop Using Our Video to Mislead Americans

Dec 6 2016 02:15 PM EST
weather.com
00:0601:56



Global warming is not expected to end anytime soon, despite what Breitbart.com wrote in an article published last week.

Though we would prefer to focus on our usual coverage of weather and climate science, in this case we felt it important to add our two cents — especially because a video clip from weather.com (La Niña in Pacific Affects Weather in New England) was prominently featured at the top of the Breitbart article. Breitbart had the legal right to use this clip as part of a content-sharing agreement with another company, but there should be no assumption that The Weather Company endorses the article associated with it.


The Breitbart article – a prime example of cherry picking, or pulling a single item out of context to build a misleading case – includes this statement: "The last three years may eventually come to be seen as the final death rattle of the global warming scare."

In fact, thousands of researchers and scientific societies are in agreement that greenhouse gases produced by human activity are warming the planet’s climate and will keep doing so.

Along with its presence on the high-profile Breitbart site, the article drew even more attention after a link to it was retweeted by the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology.

The Breitbart article heavily references a piece that first appeared on U.K. Daily Mail’s site.

Here’s where both articles went wrong:

CLAIM: "Global land temperatures have plummeted by one degree Celsius since the middle of this year – the biggest and steepest fall on record."

TRUTH: This number comes from one satellite-based estimate of temperatures above land areas in the lower atmosphere. Data from the other two groups that regularly publish satellite-based temperature estimates show smaller drops, more typical of the decline one would expect after a strong El Niño event.

Temperatures over land give an incomplete picture of global-scale temperature. Most of the planet – about 70 percent – is covered by water, and the land surface warms and cools more quickly than the ocean. Land-plus-ocean data from the other two satellite groups, released after the Breitbart article, show that Earth’s lower atmosphere actually set a record high in November 2016.

CLAIM: "It can be argued that without the El Niño (and the so-called "Pacific Blob") 2014-2016 would not have been record warm years." (David Whitehouse, Global Warming Policy Foundation, quoted by Breitbart)

TRUTH: NOAA data show that the 2014-16 El Niño did not even begin until October 2014. It was a borderline event until mid-2015, barely above the El Niño threshold. El Niño clearly added to the strength of the record global warmth observed since late 2015. However, if the El Niño spike is removed, 2016 is still the warmest year on record and 2015 the second warmest, according to climate scientist Zeke Hausfather (Berkeley Earth).


Global surface temperature trends for the period 1966-2015 analyzed for El Niño years (red boxes), La Niña years (blue boxes), and neutral years (black boxes), along with volcanic years (gold triangles). The three trend lines show that global temperature has been rising at a fairly consistent rate of about 0.15 - 0.17°C (0.27 - 0.31°F) once La Niña and El Niño departures are factored out. (Berkeley Earth)
CLAIM: "Many think that 2017 will be cooler than previous years. Myles Allen of Oxford University says that by the time of the next big United Nations climate conference, global temperatures are likely to be no warmer than the Paris COP in 2015. This would be a strange thing to happen if, as some climate scientists have claimed, recent years would have been a record even without the El Niño." (David Rose, U.K. Daily Mail, quoted by Breitbart)

TRUTH: There is nothing unusual about a drop in global surface temperatures when going from El Niño to La Nina. These ups and downs occur on top of the long-term warming trend that remains when the El Niño and La Niña signals are removed. If there were no long-term trend, then we would see global record lows occurring during the strongest La Niña events. However, the last year to see global temperatures hit a record low was 1911, and the most recent year that fell below the 20th-century average was 1976.

For an even deeper dive on the science, we recommend the blog by our experts.

Finally, to our friends at Breitbart: The next time you write a climate change article and need fact checking help, please call. We're here for you. I'm sure we both agree this topic is too important to get wrong.

Quoting 370. Grothar:

One explanation for so many visits by UFO's is that they have been searching Earth for intelligent life. The way things are, they may have a long wait.

If extraterrestrials are aware of this planet, it's possible they've quarantined this dump for the good of the neighborhood.
Quoting 386. ACSeattle:


If extraterrestrials are aware of this planet, it's possible they've quarantined this dump for the good of the neighborhood.


Quoting 380. Xyrus2000:
Looks like climate science will only be the first casualty. Check out Steve Bannon's latest interview. No, you're not reading a 1930's Nazi propaganda article. This is the top adviser to the president of the US.

I think I'll expand my data archiving operations and helping archiving projects move their data to non-US locations. The attacks on science and education are just the beginning.
I'm really gonna miss all ya'll...
Since the blog is slow, for now -
A blast from the past
I've been having some wundermail issues---responses to Dakster's and Keeper's wundermails in comment #1450 of my blog. Also for Keeper, a tip for handling trolls in comment #1428 of my blog ;)
Wow! As late as 2012, they could still do that song.

Iron Butterfy's Final Performance
By Nate Silver: There's a big difference between citing numbers (which everybody does) and being empirical (which is where the real work comes in).
Quoting 362. Xyrus2000:



Any civilization capable of interstellar travel would have technology so far beyond our own they would easily be able to escape detection, including visible detection. They would have mastered fusion, death, gravity, metamaterials, and even exotic matter. They could land a ship on the White House lawn and no one would even know it was there.

So if aliens were actually visiting our planet and people are actually seeing them, then the aliens simply don't care. We certainly don't pose any sort of a threat. Any interstellar civilization would have solved their resource problems long ago. And if they wanted to destroy us they could do so without ever coming near our planet. Other than curiosity there's not much reason for an advanced civilization to come here, let alone open a dialog of any sort.


I do wonder if someone is quietly checking in every now and then.
Good morning. Article below is worth reading. I must confess I had no idea of the difficulties of science in Canada back then or that something like this could happen in the western civilization nowadays at all. Guess in Germany we're a bit spoilt ... Or maybe it's just my personal naivety.

Canadian scientists lend support to muzzled US counterparts
For nine years under Canada's previous government, science suffered harsh restrictions. Now US scientists may be facing a similar fate
The Guardian, Ashifa Kassam in Toronto, Friday 27 January 2017 08.00 GMT

------------------------------

Theresa May must challenge Trump's 'contempt' for climate change, say MPs
MPs from across the political spectrum say the UK prime minister must urge the US president to remain in the global Paris agreement
The Guardian, Friday 27 January 2017 06.06 GMT
Quoting 361. Pipejazz:
Thank you for keeping us informed. We do not get that from the new "free" 'Merica"

Thanks, Pipejazz. However, I still get those news from media in "free 'Merica", lol. May it stay this way!
Latest rumours and news from the Capitol Hill: http://thehill.com/

(Edit) Here the latest from this site concerning climate policy:
Trump sparks fears of war on science
The Hill, by Devin Henry - 01/27/17 06:06 AM EST

And this is expecially for Neapolitan ;-)
Guacapocalypse 2: Trump's Mexico tax talk fuels avocado fears

Peru hotel collapses into river in dramatic caught on camera video
26.01.2017: Dramatic television images showed the moment a colonial-era hotel, collapsed into the swollen waters of Sicra River in the Peruvian town of Lircay, in the district of Angaraes on Thursday.

World Bank disputes report tying Peru loans to Amazon destruction
by Chris Arsenault | @chrisarsenaul | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Friday, 27 January 2017 07:14 GMT
Billions for oil and gas pipelines and concessions in Amazon could drive climate change and destroy forest ...

Chile's timber industry says over 40,000 hectares lost to fires
by Reuters, Thursday, 26 January 2017 20:44 GMT
Worst wildfires in Chile's modern history are ravaging wide swathes of the country's central-south regions ...
402. elioe
Quoting 337. weathermanwannabe:


Are you suggesting that the ball of light that some folks reported seeing over San Diego was the "Mothership" coming out of warp speed and de-cloaking as it reached Earth after traveling here through a wormhole caused by a black hole out there somewhere?......................... :)

Sorry, flawed link. I'm just finding that the term has another meaning in english.
The correct link is here:
Ball lightning
Good Morning Blog Friends (and Aliens who may be watching); here is the Conus forecast for today and current look. Might want to be careful with the jet stream if you are vectoring in for a visit but otherwise high pressure dominates and great flying conditions and VFR all the way down:






And the look at the storm just off of Australia:


Combined image of all basins

Meet the defiant water protectors of Standing Rock:

These Are the Defiant "Water Protectors" of Standing Rock

President Trump advances Dakota Access and Keystone XL pipelines, despite protest by hundreds of indigenous tribes


PHOTOGRAPH BY ERIKA LARSEN, NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC

Krystal Two Bulls, a member of the Northern Cheyenne and Oglala Lakota tribes, helped start the Global Solidarity Campaigns. “For our people there is prophecy around these times,” she says. “The prophecy says there is going to be a time in this world when we act crazier than crazy—and I think we are seeing that time now around profit, capitalism, ego and false pride. We are at that time.”

Read more here.

--------------------

In First Network Interview as President, Trump Confirms Things That Aren’t “Tremendous” Are “Disasters”


Screenshot/ABC News

Well, that was pointless. ABC News scored the first sit-down network interview with Donald Trump five days into Trump’s world and the real takeaway of the hourlong back-and-forth with anchor David Muir is not particularly breaking news, but here it is: Donald Trump still, quite literally, doesn’t know anything about anything. If you missed the actual interview, here’s a summation of Trump’s vision. Everything that currently exists in America and the world is a “disaster.” Everything will be “tremendous” soon. How will this tremendousness happen? We’re going to be smarter and stronger. Donald Trump now speaks in tweets and David Muir let him get away with it.

Read more here.
And we know (also weather related) that it was a lightning bolt in a t-storm that brought the ship down outside Roswell in 1947.......................................
Macomb v media: voters who read little news think Trump had a great first week
In a Michigan city that helped get Donald Trump elected, people are actively choosing to ignore news they don’t want to hear – or not receiving news at all
Ed Pilkington in Macomb County, Michigan, Friday 27 January 2017 12.00 GMT
Katharine Hayhoe:
‏@KHayhoe

A thermometer isn't democrat or republican. It won't give you a different number depending on how you vote. #climatefacts

The Standing Rock tribal people have every right to protest the pipeline issue given their strong ties to the land, and preserving the lands, that go back for thousands of years for all of the Native Americans that are/have been here in South and North America all the way to the Polar regions long before the European colonization. Same issue with the Inuit Peoples in the Arctic Regions and the impact of AGW on their lands to our North (the frontline):

https://www.yahoo.com/news/climate-change-i nuit-culture-thin-ice-

Umiujaq (Canada) (AFP) - Residents of the sub-Arctic village of Umiujaq wistfully remember the good old days, when the ice-fishing season was long and the catch bountiful.

That was before the effects of climate change, the most recent in a long of list of threats to the Inuit way of life, started hitting home.

Already assailed by decades of imposed cultural and social changes, global warming is now taking its toll on one of the key surviving Inuit traditions -- the yearly hunt for fish through holes cut into frozen water.

"I love ice fishing, I love fish eggs. But (the season) lasts only a few weeks and it gets scary very fast" on the thin ice, Nellie Tookalook told AFP.

Winter used to arrive in October or November, "but it's later now," said Tookalook.

The snow melts faster, she complains, "and there are fewer caribou".





RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)


0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/3/20162017
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 3

2.A POSITION 2017/01/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.5 S / 73.8 E
(ELEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY THREE DECIMAL
EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT : WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.0/1.5/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1008 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
The next two forecast Winter lows, per WPC, is one over the Great Lakes region around Tuesday (the stronger one) and another one in the Texas Panhandle area around Wednesday:



Day 4 Fronts and Pressures

Day 5 Fronts and Pressures

After a long warm spell, we're heading into at least ten days of average winter weather. (Below freezing). The ground is muddy, and not frozen at all. I hate the mud! I'd rather walk on frozen ground than muddy mess. Chicagoland.
Quoting 413. ChiThom:

After a long warm spell, we're heading into at least ten days of average winter weather. (Below freezing). The ground is muddy, and not frozen at all. I hate the mud! I'd rather walk on frozen ground than muddy mess. Chicagoland.



As your Midwest neighbor I'd agree! The mud is terrible! Snow flurries here in Detroit area with temps back to mostly average the next week or so.

Ready to see some sunshine, it's been depressingly gray here lately, more so than usual.
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JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 413. ChiThom:

After a long warm spell, we're heading into at least ten days of average winter weather. (Below freezing). The ground is muddy, and not frozen at all. I hate the mud! I'd rather walk on frozen ground than muddy mess. Chicagoland.



In DC area normal winter conditions produce mud and it takes prolonged below normal spells to freeze the ground.