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Will Erika Survive its Traverse of Hispaniola?

By: Jeff Masters 3:45 PM GMT on August 28, 2015

Tropical Storm Erika is headed into the teeth of Hispaniola's 10,000-foot high mountains, as the storm marches west-northwest at 17 mph, spreading torrential rains and sustained winds of 50 mph along its path. The biggest danger of the storm to the islands is heavy rainfall; according to the Antigua Met Service, Canefield Airport on Dominica recorded 12.62" (320.6 mm) of rain in twelve hours on Wednesday night and Thursday morning from Erika, and the resulting heavy flooding has killed at least twelve people.


Video 1. Floodwaters rage through a street on Dominica island in the Caribbean on Thursday, August 27, 2015, after Tropical Storm Erika dumped 12+" of rain on the island.

An Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft was in the storm Friday morning, and found Erika continued to have a large area of tropical-storm force winds up to 50 mph to the southeast of the center. A Personal Weather Station (PWS) in southwest Puerto Rico at Barrio Hoconuco at higher elevation recorded wind gusts up to 56 mph Friday morning. Punta Cana, on the eastern tip of the Dominican Republic, had a wind gust of 40 mph at both 10 am and 11 am AST. Rainfall as of 11 am EDT Friday over Puerto Rico had mostly been below 2", according to estimates from the San Juan radar.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Erika from NASA's Aqua satellite taken at approximately 11 am EDT Friday August 28, 2015. At the time, Erika had top sustained winds of 50 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Satellite loops on Friday morning showed that Erika continued to be disorganized in the face of dry air and wind shear. There is not much heavy thunderstorm activity on the storm's north side, where there was dry air from the Saharan Air Layer, though there was a vigorous area of heavy thunderstorms on its southeast side. These thunderstorms did not change much in intensity or areal coverage on Friday morning. Wind shear due to upper-level winds out of the west was a high 20 - 25 knots, and this shear was driving dry air on the northwest side of Erika into its core, disrupting the storm.


Figure 2. Latest long-range radar image of Tropical Storm Erika from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar.


Figure 3. Predicted rainfall for Erika for the 126-hour period ending at 8 am EDT September 2, 2015, from the 06Z (2 am EDT) Friday August 28, 2015 run of the HWRF model. This rainfall swath is likely displaced too far to the east, and will probably be centered directly over Florida. Rainfall amounts of 4 - 8" can be expected in many areas along Erika's path, with a few areas of 8+" (bright yellow colors.) Image credit: NOAA.

Will Erika survive Hispaniola?
Erika's battle against dry air and high wind shear has caused the center of the storm to reform several times to the south of its original position, closer to the storm's heaviest thunderstorms. These southward shifts mean that Erika is now poised to track directly over mountainous Hispaniola island, whose highest peak exceeds 10,000 feet in height. This encounter will not go well for Erika, particularly since wind shear will remain a high 15 - 25 knots during the traverse, and dry air will continue to wrap into Erika's circulation during the crossing. These combined factors could lead to Erika's dissipation by Saturday morning. The traverse of the island may also cause the center to reform to the west of the island, which would then mean that Erika would encounter some of the high terrain of eastern Cuba. If Erika survives into Saturday morning, which I give a 50% chance of occurring, the storm may have time to intensify into a strong tropical storm with 60 mph winds before hitting South Florida. If Erika dissipates over Hispaniola Friday night, the storm could still reorganize into a minimal-strength tropical storm with 40 mph winds before encountering South Florida. The upper low over Cuba that is bringing high wind shear to Erika today is forecast to weaken on Sunday, which should cause wind shear to drop to the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, which would allow some modest strengthening of Erika. A trough of low pressure will turn Erika to the north on Monday, and it is possible this turn will occur just west of the Florida, bringing Erika northwards along the west coast of Florida and into the Florida Panhandle by Tuesday--as suggested by the 00Z Friday (8 pm EDT Thursday) runs of the European and UKMET models. Regardless, much of Florida can expect heavy flooding rains from Erika Sunday through Tuesday.


Figure 4. Drought conditions in the Caribbean during July 2015 as estimated via satellite. Drought is indexed here using the 6-month Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), a measure of how much rainfall has occurred in the previous six months compared to average. Drought is common in the Caribbean during El Niño years, due to an atmospheric circulation that brings plenty of dry, sinking air and high pressure to the region. The last major drought in the Caribbean was in 2010, which also had an El Niño event. Image credit: NOAA Global Drought Portal.

Erika's rains to help alleviate record Caribbean heat and drought
Record heat and drought has been widespread over the Caribbean this summer, with the worst drought conditions occurring over Haiti, Eastern Cuba, Nicaragua, Panama, Colombia, Venezuela, Honduras, and Costa Rica. Reuters reported today that Cuba will begin a two-month cloud-seeding campaign over the eastern part of the Caribbean island in hopes of easing its worst drought since at least 1901. The dry conditions and associated atmospheric circulation that has brought warm, sinking air and high pressure to the region has led to many Caribbean cities recording their all-time highest temperatures on record. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, on Thursday, the Observatory in Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic, hit 99°F (37.2°C), the hottest temperature ever recorded in the city (previous record: 37.0°C on August 17, 1947.) This record high was aided by the fact that dry, sinking air due to the outflow from Tropical Storm Erika was over the Dominican Republic. Another big factor in the yesterday's record high, and the record highs all across the Caribbean this year, is the fact that the year-to-date period of 2015 has been the warmest on record for the globe as a whole. Here is Mr. Herrera's list of cities in countries bordering the Caribbean that have set all-time heat records this year:

Cuba
Cienfuegos (Cuba) max. 37.0°C July 6
Jucaro (Cuba) max. 36.8°C July 10
Jucaro (Cuba) max. 37.0°C July 28
Contramaestre (Cuba) max. 38.2°C July 29
Isabel Rubio Airport (Cuba) max. 36.3°C July 29
Indio Hatuey (Cuba) max. 38.1°C July 30
Havana (Cuba), max. 37.0°C, April 26
Holguin (Cuba), max. 38.7°C, April 26
Guaro (Cuba), max. 38.0°C, April 26
Contramaestre (Cuba), max. 37.7°C, April 27
Velasco (Cuba), max. 38.6°C, April 28
Ciego de Avila (Cuba), max. 38.0°C, April 28
Puerto Padre (Cuba), max. 38.4°C, April 29
Punta Lucrecia (Cuba), max. 37.3°C, April 29
Nuevitas (Cuba), max. 38.5°C, April 30

Colombia
Riohacha (Colombia) max. 40.6°C July 13
Cartagena, Colombia, max. 40.4°C,  June 24
Santa Marta, Colombia, max, 38.6°C, June 24
Arjona, Colombia, max, 40°C, June 24
Urumitia, Colombia, max, 42.0°C, June 27
Riohacha, Colombia, max, 40.0°C, June 29

Mexico
Merida (Mexico), max. 43.6°C, April 26

Honduras
Tela (Honduras), max. 40.6°C, April 28

Venezuela
Coro (Venezuela), max. 43.6°C, April 29 (New all-time national record high for Venezuela)

Dominican Republic
Santo Domingo (Dominican Republic), 37.2°C, August 27

U.S. Virgin Islands
Charlotte Amalie (U.S. VI), 35°C (95°F), August 1 (all time high for the station and the U.S. Virgin Islands)

New tropical wave moving off the coast of Africa
A strong tropical wave will move off the coast of Africa on Saturday, and has the potential to become a tropical depression next week as it moves west-northwest near or over the Cape Verde Islands at 10 mph. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 5-day odds of development of 30%. This wave will likely move too far to the northwest to be a threat to the Caribbean islands.

Hurricane Ignacio a threat to Hawaii
Hurricane Ignacio continues to slowly intensify in the waters to the east-southeast of Hawaii, and could pass within 200 miles of Hawaii on Tuesday. Satellite loops on Friday morning showed that Ignacio had an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms, but no eye was apparent. Ignacio is over warm waters with light to moderate wind shear, conditions that favor continued intensification. Hawaii should also keep an eye on Hurricane Jimena, which is intensifying rapidly in the waters over 1500 miles east southeast of the islands. Jimena is expected to top out at Category 4 strength on Sunday, but eventually recurve to the north well before reaching Hawaii. In about ten days, Jimena has the potential to traverse ocean areas off the coast of Northern California where no tropical storm has ever been observed.

Bob Henson or myself will have another Erika post later today.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1495. nash36:



It doesn't matter what they classify this as. As has been for its entire lifespan, this will be a dangerous rain producer. Unless you are living under two pieces of white bread, her winds aren't going to be an issue. It's the torrential water it is dumping that could take many lives.


Exactly. Heck, I picked up 7.20" of rain in about 5 hours from an Invest on August 3rd. I have learned how much rain can be dropped from a non-named tropical blob.
Quoting 1479. kmanislander:

Skimming the coastline. Still West based upon continuity.




I say it's slightly WSW-SW of that just offshore right along the coast

Quoting 1483. Camerooski:

its moving NW....


No it's not it's moving W

Quoting 1489. stormpetrol:



Imo Erika never make landfall in Haiti/DR, looks like a slight WSW movement tonight and she is far from dead!


Hmm I think it may have made landfall just skimming the S coast IMO but yeah not dead yet
1503. sar2401
Quoting 1475. nonblanche:



OSB is cheaper. SAR, is OSB a good option for window boarding? I mean, out here it works just fine for our roof substrate.
Sure, as long as you use OSB/4. It's actually stronger than plywood. The main disadvantage is it's heavy. You'll need some strong folks to put it up on a window of any size.
Quoting 1409. FIUStormChaser:



Looks NW?
HI. In case you did not see it, left you a message back aways - comment 1360.
Quoting 1477. hydrus:

I lived right in between Horse Creek and the Peace River for quite a while...It does get messy. June 23 1995 Kings Highway was washed out and closed for weeks.



will get worse when whats left of ericka dumps there
Quoting 1495. nash36:



It doesn't matter what they classify this as. As has been for its entire lifespan, this will be a dangerous rain producer. Unless you are living under two pieces of white bread, her winds aren't going to be an issue. It's the torrential water it is dumping that could take many lives.


That is what many are not realizing on here

Even if she degenerates into an open wave, she is going to an area that has a lot of rain and will be in that area for several days. Parts of Florida could have issues with serious flooding. I do not think some who do not live in these parts of Florida realize how bad the flooding has been in the last few months.
Quoting 1495. nash36:



It doesn't matter what they classify this as. As has been for its entire lifespan, this will be a dangerous rain producer. Unless you are living under two pieces of white bread, her winds aren't going to be an issue. It's the torrential water it is dumping that could take many lives.
Well said. We've come through Cat 3 storms with no loss of life here, but when Hurricane Noel, which at the time was still a TS, passed through somebody drowned.

Not joking; as long as this is a tropical entity it's got flood potential.
Quoting 1500. Tazmanian:



no she is dead Erika has degenerated too a open wave tonight

and you can clear see that on here






i see no turning what so ever its a open wave now


To each his own Taz , you could be right, time will tell for sure!
I have come to the conclusion that almost no one commenting here has a clue what they are talking about.
Quoting 1500. Tazmanian:



no she is dead Erika has degenerated too a open wave tonight

and you can clear see that on here






i see no turning what so ever its a open wave now


Its not official until the NHC says it is.
1511. nash36
Quoting 1502. wunderkidcayman:



I say it's slightly WSW-SW of that just offshore right along the coast



No it's not it's moving W



Hmm I think it may have made landfall just skimming the S coast IMO but yeah not dead yet


Who cares? W, WSW, SSSW, WNW, NNSWS...It's nothing but a giant cluster of flooding rains. Nothing more. People need to be prepared for that....
1512. scott39
How would anybody on here know for sure that Erika is NOT a TC?
1513. wpb
Quoting 1460. Kowaliga:

CU trying to fire up Gran Piedra radar site without much success (stays down most of the time)...

nice tool if it up and scanning
Quoting 1512. scott39:

How would anybody on here know for sure that Erika is NOT a TC?


Because we have eyes.
1515. emguy
Only reason they hang onto this for a full 5AM Advisory Package is because they do not have a recon in there to confirm...so the continuity of science would keep it alive just in case if they do not have other reliable measurements to "ground truth" confirm there is no west wind at the surface.

Otherwise, I'd suspect the 11PM discussion will read like an obituary. None the less...as with all weak storms...what's left will remain a flood threat. If she is truly dead...history of storms like this would dictate she is gone for good and will not be able to regenerate. As mentioning earlier...have seen this countless times with Hispanola/East Cuba interacting systems....

Quoting 1485. tampabaymatt:



I don't think there is much doubt that it has. If the NHC keeps this as a TS at 11:00, it must just be because they don't want people to let their guard down. This is not a tropical storm at the moment.
Just checking in for a moment. Nice flare up in convection, although I don't see a LLC. I think that flare up was probably in part due to daytime heating over Hispanola, not so much the storm itself doing any intensifying. If there is a circulation still, the she is almost ready to take a bath in the windward passage. I do think this is an open wave now, and wouldn't be surprised if NHC stops advisories at 11. Worst case, it would be a TD. Just don't see TS status any longer.
It may be an open wave BUT... it does have a mid level circulation still so however great or however slim it does still have a chance at retaining strength once/if it clears the islands & also I noticed it has begun its wnw/NW journey(well in the midlevels)
1518. hydrus
Quoting 1493. Chicklit:

Navy track

Good evening Chicklit..May I please have a link to that site if possible.?
1519. scott39
Quoting 1514. tampabaymatt:



Because we have eyes.
LOL
Quoting 1500. Tazmanian:



no she is dead Erika has degenerated too a open wave tonight

and you can clear see that on here






i see no turning what so ever its a open wave now


We are used to seeing her nakedness swirling, whereas that swirl is now covered and we're not used to her with clothes on?
Quoting 1514. tampabaymatt:



Because we have eyes.


and how many of those "eyes" and observations have been right about this pain in the butt storm?

1523. wpb
one of the hurricane models drop it on 18zrun hmrf
Quoting 1509. ApacheRevolver:

I have come to the conclusion that almost no one commenting here has a clue what they are talking about.
Welcome to the fray. It's a goofball storm.




Erika is a storm that has more "punch" than one thinks!
Quoting 1509. ApacheRevolver:

I have come to the conclusion that almost no one commenting here has a clue what they are talking about.


Amen & I second and third that! It's alot of blind leading the blind
Quoting 1515. emguy:

Only reason they hang onto this for a full 5AM Advisory Package is because they do not have a recon in there to confirm...so the continuity of science would keep it alive just in case if they do not have other reliable measurements to "ground truth" confirm there is no west wind at the surface.

Otherwise, I'd suspect the 11PM discussion will read like an obituary. None the less...as with all weak storms...what's left will remain a flood threat. If she is truly dead...history of storms like this would dictate she is gone for good and will not be able to regenerate. As mentioning earlier...have seen this countless times with Hispanola/East Cuba interacting systems....




I have no idea what the NHC will do at 11:00, but my guess is they will downgrade this to a TD and shift the cone further west.
Shear has been decreasing in Erika's area.
Quoting 1522. Hurricanes101:



and how many of those "eyes" and observations have been right about this pain in the butt storm?




This is not a tropical storm. There is no banding, no visible center, and no evidence that the storm is rotating around said center. I'm not making this up. They were all over this on WU TV tonight and it's clear based on satellite observation.
Quoting 1513. wpb:

nice tool if it up and scanning

Pilón rad working but too far away for now...
Here is the 500mb level.

1532. hydrus
Quoting 1510. Hurricanes101:



Its not official until the NHC says it is.
This is true..I usually do not get ticked off, but the next person on here that posts a statement that is blatantly false, I am going to report them..Something I have not done the near 8 years I have been here...I cant believe there is actually someone who would do that..
1533. sar2401
Quoting 1501. tampabaymatt:



Exactly. Heck, I picked up 7.20" of rain in about 5 hours from an Invest on August 3rd. I have learned how much rain can be dropped from a non-named tropical blob.
Just think of Pensacola and Mobile in April, 2013. This was just from a slow moving, non-tropical cold front. I ended up with a little less than nine inches. Yeah, it can happen.

Food for thought:
Suppose this storm does not lose its circulation and holds together until it reaches Florida. This could be really bad for the Tampa Bay area. Some communities in the Tampa Bay area were hit really hard by the soaking rains in July and early August. The rain will be bad enough, but add any wind on that and many trees will fall. The ground is soaked and cannot hold anymore rain, now add 40+ mph winds and you have a mess. The rain will be good for Southeast Florida, but for the Tampa Bay area it could be really bad flooding wise.
Quoting 1518. hydrus:

Good evening Chicklit..May I please have a link to that site if possible.?
this track puts the SEC of Fla on the "dirty" side, correct? if so, yay! we need the rain!!
We are all scratchin our heads on this one. Come on wuderground regulars I want to see some forecasts . lets put it out there , what is this Erika going to do? my guess is it clears Hispaniola , strengthens  just east of Guantanamo Bay, Takes a 290  heading for Marathon, then warm water ,less shear . trouble. My guess . Now throw some of yours out there.
Quoting 1531. ProgressivePulse:

Here is the 500mb level.




For this to travel up the west coast of FL like the current cone indicates, it would need to basically traverse over the entire length of Cuba, simply based on its current location. That will kill it even more. Whatever corpse is left of Erika after that will be nothing more than a blob of moisture. I still feel like this storm will continue to move W and the cone will keep moving west with it.
1539. hydrus
Quoting 1505. Invisabull:




will get worse when whats left of ericka dumps there
I hope this will fizzle or stay weak.
Although she's unofficially dead, the west coast of Florida is in for major flooding.

Tampa westward, especially.
The LLC seems to be tucked under the deep convection to the West of the headland on the SW end of the DR. Now near or just over the South coast peninsula of Haiti. The shortwave loop shows the centre at the start of the loop near 17.5 and 71 before it disappeared underneath the convective blow up.

Quoting 1492. wunderkidcayman:



Agreed

Hmm Jamaica and the storm tomorrow I think more like tomorrow evening tomorrow night Sunday Morning sometime then about IMO
I don't know -- at the rate that ball of convection is bookin' West I think it'll be starting to impact Cayman Brac by tomorrow night late and be at Grand Cayman by Sunday morning. Erika's in a hurry!
1543. rxse7en
Quoting 1506. Hurricanes101:



That is what many are not realizing on here

Even if she degenerates into an open wave, she is going to an area that has a lot of rain and will be in that area for several days. Parts of Florida could have issues with serious flooding. I do not think some who do not live in these parts of Florida realize how bad the flooding has been in the last few months.


Good point. I'm not watching because I think she's going to bomb out, I'm watching because I want to see where the rain is going. :) Jeanne and Fay were not fun here in Jax and we're expecting rain all weekend.
1544. emguy
The closest anyone is going to get to finding a center of circulation is that very weak and disoganized but persistent swirl of low level strata east of Jamaica...and that's defiantly not a tropical cyclone or a tropical cyclone candidate. Interestingly though...it is as close as you get. Which means I am saying a lot about nothing....lol

Quoting 1500. Tazmanian:



no she is dead Erika has degenerated too a open wave tonight

and you can clear see that on here






i see no turning what so ever its a open wave now
Gitmo Radar.
Link
Quoting 1541. kmanislander:

The LLC seems to be tucked under the deep convection to the West of the headland on the SW end of the DR. Now near or just over the South coast peninsula of Haitia. The shortwave loop shows the centre at the start of the loop near 17.5 and 71 before it disappeared underneath the convective blow up.




but everyone is saying she is an open wave
1547. gator23
Quoting 1541. kmanislander:

The LLC seems to be tucked under the deep convection to the West of the headland on the SW end of the DR. Now near or just over the South coast peninsula of Haitia. The shortwave loop shows the centre at the start of the loop near 17.5 and 71 before it disappeared underneath the convective blow up.



Banding is more apparent on this ShortWave image
1548. rxse7en
GITMO RADAR just starting to pick up the outer edge.
Quoting 1547. gator23:


Banding is more apparent on this ShortWave image
Is that ULL that's over Cuba now centred over the N coast and into Bahamian waters? I thought it was further south ...
1551. emguy
I think I know what you mean...but areas westward of the Tampa Bay Area afe kind of already flooded. Okay, if you can't take a little good humor out of that than its truly a tough crowd 2nite, which has been a rough and deflating one for many weather fans here. ;)

Quoting 1540. TokininTampa:

Although she's unofficially dead, the west coast of Florida is in for major flooding.

Tampa westward, especially.
1552. owxdata
The 0z NAM isn't very encouraging, http://owxdata.com/beta/model.php?m=NAM&p=sfc&rh=2 015082900&fh=6&r=tropfloater&dpdt=
Quoting 1514. tampabaymatt:



Because we have eyes.


Even though you're probably correct, there's always a potential for regeneration. Several here agree with you and have already nailed the coffin shut on Erika.

It's still too early. This is what my eyes see.
Quoting 1546. Hurricanes101:



but everyone is saying she is an open wave


Who is everyone ?. Could be wrong but that is what I see. Erika is certainly not traversing Hispaniola and still defying the NHC track and intensity forecast.
NHC will tell the story shortly but the midlevels are still vigilant for sure.

850


700
Quoting 1534. westFLtropics:

Food for thought:
Suppose this storm does not lose its circulation and holds together until it reaches Florida. This could be really bad for the Tampa Bay area. Some communities in the Tampa Bay area were hit really hard by the soaking rains in July and early August. The rain will be bad enough, but add any wind on that and many trees will fall. The ground is soaked and cannot hold anymore rain, now add 40+ mph winds and you have a mess. The rain will be good for Southeast Florida, but for the Tampa Bay area it could be really bad flooding wise.


It's really not as bad as you are making it out to be. I picked up 17.84" of rain in the 11 day period between July 24th and August 3rd. Since then, 5.75". Some parts of Tampa Bay are still water logged, but things have dried out nicely by me.
Quoting 1550. BahaHurican:

Is that ULL that's over Cuba now centred over the N coast and into Bahamian waters? I thought it was further south ...


Quoting 1554. kmanislander:



Who is everyone ?. Could be wrong but that is what I see. Erika is certainly not traversing Hispaniola and still defying the NHC track and intensity forecast.


ok not everyone, but there are people on here who say she is an open wave. I wouldn't be shocked if a few of them are calling the NHC now and telling them to downgrade the storm
Quoting 1527. tampabaymatt:



I have no idea what the NHC will do at 11:00, but my guess is they will downgrade this to a TD and shift the cone further west.


Now I will agree to this.... TD at 11pm and move cone further west.
Then wait to see what she does over night before calling it dead....


Taco :o)
will see here soon if the NHC keeps it a TS or if they are on the open wave train with the some of us
Quoting 1555. ProgressivePulse:

NHC will tell the story shortly but the midlevels are still vigilant for sure.

850


700



Andrew at one point only had a vigorous MLC
1562. sar2401
Quoting 1518. hydrus:

Good evening Chicklit..May I please have a link to that site if possible.?
It's actually just a recapitulation of the NHC track and cone. The Navy doesn't do their own forecasting when it comes to that. You can find it here.
You also do not downgrade this to a TD if it is still producing TS force winds

Sorry for posting a real time loop, but is it just me or is that storm rotating?
Quoting 1541. kmanislander:

The LLC seems to be tucked under the deep convection to the West of the headland on the SW end of the DR. Now near or just over the South coast peninsula of Haita. The shortwave loop shows the centre at the start of the loop near 17.5 and 71 before it disappeared underneath the convective blow up.




Give or take yeah

1566. Michfan
Quoting 1486. moonlightcowboy:



Hey, Hydrus, Baha, Taz, GR, Gro, Kman, and all

Hydrus, I'm scared to say; Erika has been mysterious, but I sure thought dry air and shear would get her. I'm having second thoughts this evening. I don't see a major, but could become a serious slow mover if that trough skates on out and the ridging gets stronger. I'm rusty, haven't been watching much, but the pattern seems to be dynamic with the steering. Small shifts can turn out to be huge problems at this point.

Hope you're well. Thanks for the nod. Y'all have a good evening. I'll check in tomorrow to see what you guys have figured out. Stay safe, Baha. Have a good sleep, all.


Thanks for stopping by MLC.
Quoting 1558. Hurricanes101:



ok not everyone, but there are people on here who say she is an open wave. I wouldn't be shocked if a few of them are calling the NHC now and telling them to downgrade the storm


People see what they see. We wont know one way or another until it is sufficiently clear of all those mountains to permit another HH investigation, if warranted by other analysis.
Quoting 1563. Hurricanes101:

You also do not downgrade this to a TD if it is still producing TS force winds





but if it dos not have a closed low then is no longer a name storm a storm needs a closed low for it too be name a TD or TD no closed low no name storm dos not matter if it has TS winds or not
Quoting 1555. ProgressivePulse:

NHC will tell the story shortly but the midlevels are still vigilant for sure.

850


700

I find that 850 img particularly compelling, especially in the face of the microwave that had all the energy consolidated in one area for the first time since Erika entered the Caribbean. I don't have the skills to determine whether Erika is an open wave or not, but I certainly don't feel comfortable dismissing a system that still manages to that that much of a presentation.

Maybe tomorrow morning, when I see how Erika is progressing to the north, I may be more satisfied. Right now I am hopeful, but wary.
Quoting 1567. kmanislander:



People see what they see. We wont know one way or another until it is sufficiently clear of all those mountains to permit another HH investigation, if warranted by other analysis.


yup; which is why I do not see them downgrading this at all until then
Quoting 1560. Tazmanian:

will see here soon if the NHC keeps it a TS or if they are on the open wave train with the some of us


Although I expect them to downgrade Erika to a TD, it wouldn't surprise me at all if they left it as a TS until anything becomes at least a little clear with what will happen.
Quoting 1563. Hurricanes101:

You also do not downgrade this to a TD if it is still producing TS force winds




Yep, which is why it wasn't downgraded last night. The storm is large enough and moving fast enough to survive depending on how much land interaction with the mountains it incurs.
1573. FSU2009
Quoting 1532. hydrus:

This is true..I usually do not get ticked off, but the next person on here that posts a statement that is blatantly false, I am going to report them..Something I have not done the near 8 years I have been here...I cant believe there is actually someone who would do that..


Taz said its an open wave, didnt know if that's what u were looking for
Quoting 1568. Tazmanian:




but if it dos not have a closed low then is no longer a name storm a storm needs a closed low for it too be name a TD or TD no closed low no name storm dos not matter if it has TS winds or not


NHC usually does not say that is the case unless recon confirms it. There is no recon, so I feel it will be status quo at 11pm
Quoting 1541. kmanislander:

The LLC seems to be tucked under the deep convection to the West of the headland on the SW end of the DR. Now near or just over the South coast peninsula of Haita. The shortwave loop shows the centre at the start of the loop near 17.5 and 71 before it disappeared underneath the convective blow up.




Thanks that is what I been trying to say!
Quoting 1546. Hurricanes101:



but everyone is saying she is an open wave


Just so you know, I've been following this blog on WU since Katrina. Of all the smart folks I've seen casting on here, Kman may just be at the top of the list. Lots of really good ones here, but if Kman throws it out there, you can usually count on it. Much respect, all.

MLC <-------out for some shuteye. %uD83D%uDE0E%uD83D%uDCA4
Quoting 1563. Hurricanes101:

You also do not downgrade this to a TD if it is still producing TS force winds




Is it still producing TS force winds?!? I don't see any observations reporting TS winds.
Open wave implies dssapated they don't want to imply try that when it could change. Their mission is to protect not to literal or scientific.
Quoting 1567. kmanislander:



People see what they see. We wont know one way or another until it is sufficiently clear of all those mountains to permit another HH investigation, if warranted by other analysis.


I do hope we see RECON soon
1580. sar2401
Quoting 1564. opal92nwf:

Sorry for posting a real time loop, but is it just me or is that storm rotating?

Which storm?
Quoting 1576. moonlightcowboy:



Just so you know, I've been following this blog on WU since Katrina. Of all the smart folks I've seen casting on here, Kman may just be at the top of the list. Lots of really good ones here, but if Kman throws it out there, you usually count on it. Much respect, all.

MLC <-------out for some shuteye. 😎💤
'

Hey, where have you been ??. Good to see you.
1582. ncstorm
Quoting 1558. Hurricanes101:



ok not everyone, but there are people on here who say she is an open wave. I wouldn't be shocked if a few of them are calling the NHC now and telling them to downgrade the storm



NHC-"NHC, how can I direct your call"
Blogger-"Yes, I need to speak to Avila"
NHC-"Please hold, music plays in background of Flo Rida"
Avila-"Avila speaking and make it quick, I'm in the middle of putting out the next discussion"
Blogger-"Um Avila, you don't know me but I've been looking at satellite images and well I need you to do what you do best and shut Erika down
Avila-"Is this MiamiHurricane09 prank calling again..I told you I dont have an ex named Erika!!"
1583. SSL1441
Quoting 1533. sar2401:

Just think of Pensacola and Mobile in April, 2013. This was just from a slow moving, non-tropical cold front. I ended up with a little less than nine inches. Yeah, it can happen.




There were some places that picked up 2 feet of rain in 24 hours that day. I remember it in particular cause I was flooded out of my dorm with the line of storms that rolled through the night before. I've never seen rain fall that fast and that hard before or since.
1584. cabice
Quoting 1343. Envoirment:



Wow. I really hope those in Haiti/Domincan Republic will be safe. Erika looks the most organised it has been on that MV pass.

Wow that is impressive. This storm is going to show why the NHC is the experts and the blog pundits are blog pundits. All the blog doubters will be humbled again by the NHC.
Quoting 1580. sar2401:

Which storm?

That main one on the lower right in the Gulf in the first few frames
Quoting 1567. kmanislander:



People see what they see. We wont know one way or another until it is sufficiently clear of all those mountains to permit another HH investigation, if warranted by other analysis.


That's exactly right. NHC has on their hands, one of most unpredictable systems they've ever seen. Conditions are not conducive to a major storm. That said, where Erika goes is 100% going to tell the story. Anything is possible and no one has a clue what this storm will do. Path is the determining factor right now. That is highly subject to change, maybe like never before. Likely an open wave and minimal tropical storm affects for Florida. There is a huge but there though. The unknown has happened over and over. Why? Because we only know so much.
Quoting 1533. sar2401:

Just think of Pensacola and Mobile in April, 2013. This was just from a slow moving, non-tropical cold front. I ended up with a little less than nine inches. Yeah, it can happen.




yeah, here in pace,fl, It seemed like a tropical system hitting. We got close to a foot of rain and it was windy and the lightening was amazing.
Quoting 1569. BahaHurican:

I find that 850 img particularly compelling, especially in the face of the microwave that had all the energy consolidated in one area for the first time since Erika entered the Caribbean. I don't have the skills to determine whether Erika is an open wave or not, but I certainly don't feel comfortable dismissing a system that still manages to that that much of a presentation.

Maybe tomorrow morning, when I see how Erika is progressing to the north, I may be more satisfied. Right now I am hopeful, but wary.


This one has been full of surprises since the begining, fooled the models and the pros. Why would we expect any different going forward? Must remain vigilant
1589. Michfan
Quoting 1545. unknowncomic:

Gitmo Radar.
Link


This is either going to confirm or tear apart some of our current observations. Good thing we have this available.
If you are the NHC , what do you say in ten minuets from now? What is your call?
1591. sar2401
Quoting 1577. ecflweatherfan:



Is it still producing TS force winds?!? I don't see any observations reporting TS winds.
Barahona, DR, which is pretty close to the center, such as it is, currently has 25 mph with gusts to 52 mph. Jacmel, Haiti which is where the storm is headed, if not there yet, has 23 mph with gusts to 29 mph. Certainly enough that I'd still call it a depression at least, and probably a TS for continuity's sake.
Quoting 1584. cabice:


Wow that is impressive. This storm is going to show why the NHC is the experts and the blog pundits are blog pundits. All the blog doubters will be humbled again by the NHC.

Quoting 1590. floridaT:

If you are the NHC , what do you say in ten minuets from now? What is your call?




open wave

Quoting 1592. dfwstormwatch:


What are you talking about? The NHC continued to have it turn NW for 3 days before it finally started to, not sure if you are saying the NHC deserves bragging rights, I respect the NHC but I don't think they did a very good job on this one.
OK you are them(NHC) right now . What do you say in ten minuets ?
Quoting 1590. floridaT:

If you are the NCH , what do you say in ten minuets from now? What is your call?

"

Maintain it as a TS with the same intensity from the previous advisory. Note in the discussion how Erika may be declared an open wave by the next advisory if it fails to organize any before then.
Quoting 1576. moonlightcowboy:



Just so you know, I've been following this blog on WU since Katrina. Of all the smart folks I've seen casting on here, Kman may just be at the top of the list. Lots of really good ones here, but if Kman throws it out there, you can usually count on it. Much respect, all.

MLC <-------out for some shuteye. %uD83D%uDE0E%uD83D%uDCA4
Well said. If I'm thinking one thing, and Kman suggests something else, I'm going to check it out. Remember "no closed low" Dolly? We had pple in here cursing the NHC from here to Jabim for not naming Dolly earlier. But we learned that if NHC doesn't have a closed low, we're not going to have a TS .... never forgot that.
I've learned a lot from him. "Nuff respeck", as the local Rastas say ....
Quoting 1590. floridaT:

If you are the NHC , what do you say in ten minuets from now? What is your call?



Something like this....

"We were originally going to keep Erika as a TS until we see how she reacts to land and gets north of Hispaniola, but due to the influx of calls from posters on Weather Underground, we have downgraded Erika to a remnant low. This is the final advisory and no one has anything to worry about."

"Oh and the season is a bust, I can't wait until 2016"
1598. sar2401
Quoting 1585. opal92nwf:


That main one on the lower right in the Gulf in the first few frames
It just looks like a thunderstorm headed NW off the Gulf. I don't see any kind of sustained rotation, and I don't know of a mechanism in the Gulf right now that would cause it.
Quoting 1591. sar2401:

Barahona, DR, which is pretty close to the center, such as it is, currently has 25 mph with gusts to 52 mph. Jacmel, Haiti which is where the storm is headed, if not there yet, has 23 mph with gusts to 29 mph. Certainly enough that I'd still call it a depression at least, and probably a TS for continuity's sake.


Sure gusts to 52, but that doesn't make something a TS. When they issue advisories they say Maximum SUSTAINED Winds, with higher gusts.. Not Maximum Gusts. You can get 52 mph gusts in a normal thunderstorm.
Quoting 1584. cabice:


Wow that is impressive. This storm is going to show why the NHC is the experts and the blog pundits are blog pundits. All the blog doubters will be humbled again by the NHC.


NHC isn't so convinced. Why should we be? Such is nature. Our best science will likely always be a step behind.
Quoting 1594. floridaT:


OK you are them(NHC) right now . What do you say in ten minuets ?


I suspect they will keep it as a 45 MPH Tropical Storm, maybe even raise the intensity a bit to 50 MPH.
...JIMENA becomes MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON SATURDAY...

o__________________o
Quoting 1597. Hurricanes101:



Something like this....

"We were originally going to keep Erika as a TS until we see how she reacts to land and gets north of Hispaniola, but due to the influx of calls from posters on Weather Underground, we have downgraded Erika to a remnant low. This is the final advisory and no one has anything to worry about."

"Oh and the season is a bust, I can't wait until 2016"




LOL

Quoting 1597. Hurricanes101:



Something like this....

"We were originally going to keep Erika as a TS until we see how she reacts to land and gets north of Hispaniola, but due to the influx of calls from posters on Weather Underground, we have downgraded Erika to a remnant low. This is the final advisory and no one has anything to worry about."

"Oh and the season is a bust, I can't wait until 2016"
LMAO OUTSTANDING


850mb

700mb

500mb

Erika, Aug 28, 2015 Vorticity at 7pm cdt. Onshore by then. These are three hours old. We'll see what cooks in a little while.
1606. rxse7en
I need shear to blow that convection off so I can see if there's an LLC. Can't see nothin'.
11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 28
Location: 18.5°N 72.9°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph
ERIKA CONTINUES TO SOAK HISPANIOLA...
...HEADING FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 72.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Quoting 1597. Hurricanes101:



Something like this....

"We were originally going to keep Erika as a TS until we see how she reacts to land and gets north of Hispaniola, but due to the influx of calls from posters on Weather Underground, we have downgraded Erika to a remnant low. This is the final advisory and no one has anything to worry about."

"Oh and the season is a bust, I can't wait until 2016"



:-)
1610. wpb
Quoting 1602. pablosyn:

...JIMENA becomes MAJOR HURRICANE... ...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR CATEGORY 5 STRENGTH ON SATURDAY...

o__________________o
recon enroute to storm now
Why are all the model runs being dropped on SFWDM site?
They also have it a bit stronger in 4 days. Track shifted a bit further west
Quoting 1597. Hurricanes101:



Something like this....

"We were originally going to keep Erika as a TS until we see how she reacts to land and gets north of Hispaniola, but due to the influx of calls from posters on Weather Underground, we have downgraded Erika to a remnant low. This is the final advisory and no one has anything to worry about."

"Oh and the season is a bust, I can't wait until 2016"


If you think the only folks stating there is no circulation and that this an open wave are WU bloggers, you must not be watching a lot of coverage of this on TV.
Quoting 1546. Hurricanes101:



but everyone is saying she is an open wave

"Everyone" but the NHC and that Navy model with the similar solution to the NHC track, and those two other models stuck on west FL... half the blog readers... heheh...

I think we're into physics realm of warm, wet air in motion wanting to stay in motion and that last swirl was the best center. The last one standing.
1615. Michfan
Quoting 1593. Tazmanian:




open wave


That would be stupid of them to do just based off of just satellite observations and no recon. At the most they will downgrade it to a TD. Personally, i see hardly any inflow channels on the microwaves and i think that justifies a lack of an LLC. The rotation we are seeing is probably 850 mb and above as shown by CIMSS not at the surface at the moment. There is always the possibility that the storm could go into the Mona Passage and regenerate a substantial LLC north of Cuba. You never count a storm out till the NHC declares it dead, especially a rain maker of this magnitude. Its foolhardy at best.


Not looking forward to waking up tomorrow as I fear Erika may have devastated parts of Haiti/Domincan Republic. Intense thunderstorms continue to fire off over the island and many more hours of heavy rain still to come.
1617. sar2401
Quoting 1587. Crackalackin73:



yeah, here in pace,fl, It seemed like a tropical system hitting. We got close to a foot of rain and it was windy and the lightening was amazing.
Yeah, it was quite a night. I was actually watching it on radar as it developed from noth after the main round of rain had already ended. That was literally 0-60 in nothing flat. I really don't like Erika very much, but I'm also not ready to put a stake in its heart.
1618. FOREX
Quoting 1608. dfwstormwatch:

ERIKA CONTINUES TO SOAK HISPANIOLA...
...HEADING FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 72.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Everytime they say WNW it is still moving West.
Quoting 1584. cabice:


Wow that is impressive. This storm is going to show why the NHC is the experts and the blog pundits are blog pundits. All the blog doubters will be humbled again by the NHC.
This means so much to me.....
Quoting 1607. Hurricanes101:

11:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 28
Location: 18.5°N 72.9°W
Moving: WNW at 20 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph


I disagree with that I say it's on the S coast of Haiti and moving W near 17.9N 72.9W/18.0N 72.9W
Oh well anyway the next recon mission will confirm or deny it

HEADING FOR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...

Doubt that unless it heads NW right now.

Edit, they mean that part of the passage between Haiti and Cuba, not heading to the North coast of Cuba.

My bad, I agree that.
I've had my doubts over the last 1 1/2 days that Erika has had a closed circulation and I don't think it looks any less organized tonight. In my opinion, the NHC tries to err too much on the side of caution with these things and their forecasts suffer because of it. The run of the mill people who watch the weather don't have a clue, but our weather geeks can see it with our own eyes. That said, if some semblance of a COC can stay mostly over the water, this blob could strengthen once the shear abates.
1623. Sangria
No downgrade... 11pm advisory keeps it at 45mph...

Link

1625. wpb
It is interesting to note, and to
remember, the fact that most of the state-of-the art dynamical
models were forecasting Erika to become a strong hurricane up to
yesterday, and today basically dissipate the cyclone.
Quoting 1613. tampabaymatt:



If you think the only folks stating there is no circulation and that this an open wave are WU bloggers, you must not be watching a lot of coverage of this on TV.


you were the only one that did not get a chuckle out of that. Either way, NHC still says TS
1627. rxse7en
Quoting 1620. wunderkidcayman:



I disagree with that I say it's on the S coast of Haiti and moving W near 17.9N 72.9W/18.0N 72.9W
Oh well anyway the next recon mission will confirm or deny it




18.5 is right along that Peninsula and looks good to me. Holding it as a TS was the right call though. Still quite robust considering how a weak storm like this has defied all the odds.
Expect the next cone to shift west as well.
1631. IKE
So much for it being an open wave.
1632. sar2401
Quoting 1615. Michfan:



That would be stupid of them to do just based off of just satellite observations and no recon. At the most they will downgrade it to a TD. Personally, i see hardly any inflow channels on the microwaves and i think that justifies a lack of an LLC. The rotation we are seeing is probably 850 mb and above as shown by CIMSS not at the surface at the moment. There is always the possibility that the storm could go into the Mona Passage and regenerate a substantial LLC north of Cuba. You never count a storm out till the NHC declares it dead, especially a rain maker of this magnitude. Its foolhardy at best.
Long past the Mona Passage. I think you mean the Windward Channel, between Haiti and Cuba. As far as I can tell, the storm continues straight west, with no evidence of a turn up the Channel. It actually looks like a giant bowing MCV right now.
No real changes other than direction, which may change again to who knows where at this point.

Night all, I got a busy weekend ahead so I may check in just a teeny bit from here on out, maybe that's a good thing for all of us. Sleep tight.
Quoting 1622. waccamatt:

I've had my doubts over the last 1 1/2 days that Erika has had a closed circulation and I don't think it looks any less organized tonight. In my opinion, the NHC tries to err too much on the side of caution with these things and their forecasts suffer because of it. The run of the mill people who watch the weather don't have a clue, but our weather geeks can see it with our own eyes. That said, if some semblance of a COC can stay mostly over the water, this blob could strengthen once the shear abates.


In fairness to the NHC, they do say that under normal circumstances they would be issuing watches for Florida but they are not in this case because there is a significant chance Erika may not survive. That tells me a lot about what they think they her chances are. Plus they basically say they have no idea on the track because the models lose the circulation.
1635. rxse7en
Center according to NHC as of 11pm:


Quoting 1551. emguy:
I think I know what you mean...but areas westward of the Tampa Bay Area afe kind of already flooded. Okay, if you can't take a little good humor out of that than its truly a tough crowd 2nite, which has been a rough and deflating one for many weather fans here. ;)



Tampa westward....so it might rain in the Gulf???
Quoting 1594. floridaT:


OK you are them(NHC) right now . What do you say in ten minuets ?



Conditions improving over the next two days, coming into ideal conditions; SST's high, low shear, but lots of mountains to kill a LLCOC. Trend West, or hard NW turn? Cone has been wrong, is it still wrong? Not feeling the trough fast enough because Erika is too weak? NHC are the best, if anyone knows, they know. They may not know, and wording of updates have said as much. Another let down for 2015 is likely on hand. Or path is off and Tampa, St. Pete get hit by a major. While in the single digits for possibilities, one does never know.
1638. emguy
I've worked with and coordinated with the NHC a lot in the past and know their language...as I was referencing earlier...they'd hang onto it til 5AM in the event they could not "ground truth" reliably without recon...this is a typical and appropriate response in alignment with true scientific process.

To follow the rules of scientific process, they must follow continuity. Otherwise, they are also saying through plain, but somewhat coded language, that although they can't confirm, they pretty much know it's an open wave too based on what they can see through non ground truth sources...so she will get a 2am intermediate, and a 5AM full advisory...but unless there is a massive surprise...that's it.

Quoting 1595. Stoopid1:

"

Maintain it as a TS with the same intensity from the previous advisory. Note in the discussion how Erika may be declared an open wave by the next advisory if it fails to organize any before then.
raw T # have really shot up JIMENA is uder going expose deeping i think 125 is a little too nic

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 12:14:41 N Lon : 123:53:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 943.8mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.9 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : +10.5C Cloud Region Temp : -72.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.3 degrees
Heya folks. Its been a while. Usually I am watching the tropical storms develop from my very removed location in Buffalo NY, but this week I am in Bradenton Fl. helping my dad move into his new home. And for once, I am in the "cone"... It figures, since this area hasn't seen a named storm in quite some time here.

Is Tampa Wx still active here? I would like to contact him.

Thanks all. Happy hurricane tracking....

Oh.. And Dr. Masters, you have had the lead story in the local papers for the past few days. Its so great that these folks know who to listen to. You are the Tropical Storm Master.
Kudos.
Quoting 1625. wpb:

It is interesting to note, and to
remember, the fact that most of the state-of-the art dynamical
models were forecasting Erika to become a strong hurricane up to
yesterday, and today basically dissipate the cyclone.



Avila's getting cranky about those damn kids and their computer programs. How tempted was he to sign off with GET OFF MY LAWN?
1642. Michfan
Quoting 1632. sar2401:

Long past the Mona Passage. I think you mean the Windward Channel, between Haiti and Cuba. As far as I can tell, the storm continues straight west, with no evidence of a turn up the Channel. It actually looks like a giant bowing MCV right now.


Yeah i meant Windward and i agree. The low level clouds around the storm just aren't responding if it were to have an LLC. Its all midlevel.
00Z NAM
Quoting 1637. DeepSeaRising:



Conditions improving over the next two days, coming into ideal conditions; SST's high, low shear, but lots of mountains to kill a LLCOC. Trend West, or hard NW turn? Cone has been wrong, is it still wrong? Not feeling the trough fast enough because Erika is too weak? NHC are the best, if anyone knows, they know. They may not know, and wording of updates have said as much. Another let down for 2015 is likely on hand. Or path is off and Tampa, St. Pete get hit by a major. While in the single digits for possibilities, one does never know.


scary enough that Tampa/St. Pete doesn't know what a TS is much less a hurricane. A major cane in the Bay area would have devastating Katrina type bathtub effect...with an already saturated area.
This is the telling comment about Erika which keeps many of us here:

However, if it survives, there is a very small
opportunity for Erika to regain tropical storm strength in the
Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, where the
environment is less hostile.


Otherwise NHC would be shutting up the shop and heading home.

Re Erika .... I have seen other cyclones over Hispaniola, but they generally don't look like this:



Somehow one can't help but feel that Erika has a sleeve and there's something more up it than an arm . ....

In other news, we are getting yet another round of rain here.
Oh the centre that NHC has chosen may actually not be the actual centre but a mean centre so it could very well be where I said it was moving W

Anyway only one way to find out and that's to have a recon flight
1647. rxse7en
Quoting 1624. tampabaymatt:




Still have it slowing down, but now it will be over water on this track. Went from a TD to TS on Day 5. Jax on dirty side if this holds up.
1648. ncstorm
This is about the tightest cluster of ensembles I have seen for Erika since it formed..unfortunately it covers pretty much the entire peninsula of Florida

00z Short Range Ensembles..
1649. sar2401
Quoting 1620. wunderkidcayman:



I disagree with that I say it's on the S coast of Haiti and moving W near 17.9N 72.9W/18.0N 72.9W
Oh well anyway the next recon mission will confirm or deny it


You disagree with the results of dropsondes from a P-3? You have your own airplane with different results? We already had a recon flight that confirmed this. It's inland over the DR, and 18.5 looks right to me.
Quoting 1636. LakeAlfredian:



Tampa westward....so it might rain in the Gulf???


I guess St Petersburg, Clearwater, Kenneth City, St Pete Beach, Palm Harbor and areas like that do not count?
Quoting 1646. wunderkidcayman:

Oh the centre that NHC has chosen may actually not be the actual centre but a mean centre so it could very well be where I said it was moving W

Anyway only one way to find out and that's to have a recon flight
If Erika's convection hasn't approached Inagua by 8 a.m. tomorrow morning, I don't think I'll be convinced of a NW or WNW track ....

But we shall see ....
If that location is correct, then Erika is right on the coast getting ready to move offshore. If this is the case, then she has survived her passage of the island. Cuba is in her way now. I can't see a LLC there though. Untrained eyes. And I am no expert obviously. That is why I love this place. There are knowledgeable people, and wishcasters, and non-experts trying to figure things out (put myself in that category), and lurkers that chime in on occasion.
1653. Sangria
What's up with the area over the Keys and north of it having a higher % of TS winds at 0 hour?

Quoting 1640. sabresfan:

Heya folks. Its been a while. Usually I am watching the tropical storms develop from my very removed location in Buffalo NY, but this week I am in Bradenton Fl. helping my dad move into his new home. And for once, I am in the "cone"... It figures, since this area hasn't seen a named storm in quite some time here.

Is Tampa Wx still active here? I would like to contact him.

Thanks all. Happy hurricane tracking....

Oh.. And Dr. Masters, you have had the lead story in the local papers for the past few days. Its so great that these folks know who to listen to. You are the Tropical Storm Master.
Kudos.

I'm in Bradenton as well....haven't seen tampa wx around, but maybe others have? Tampa Bay is due for one...the storms typically either go to the Panhandle/LA/TX or sw FL coast in the Gulf...we've been fortunate.
Quoting 1635. rxse7en:

Center according to NHC as of 11pm:



Back over water then.
A personal weather station in Barahona, Dominican Republic, has recorded 16.13" of rain between 1 pm and 10 pm, including 8.80" in one hour from 8 pm to 9 pm:

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=IBARAHON3

Rainfall at that level is going to cause extreme flooding, though it is possible the measurement was bad.

Dr. M.
1657. Patrap

Quoting 1634. BobinTampa:



In fairness to the NHC, they do say that under normal circumstances they would be issuing watches for Florida but they are not in this case because there is a significant chance Erika may not survive. That tells me a lot about what they think they her chances are. Plus they basically say they have no idea on the track because the models lose the circulation.
Yes and you have to respect the honesty
Quoting 1653. Sangria:

What's up with the area over the Keys and north of it having a higher % of TS winds at 0 hour?




It's likely because she will weaken to a TD, so the area between the two yellow spots has a lower chance at TS force winds. The yellow spot by the keys is about where they forecast her to become a TS again if she survives, so that area has a higher chance of TS force winds then the area northward right now.

Kind of look at it as two different probabilities for this storm, one for Hispaniola and Cuba and the other for the Florida straits and Florida
1660. FOREX
Erika is so weak, very few models are able to even latch on to her. Looks like we are close to RIP status.
Quoting 1642. Michfan:



Yeah i meant Windward and i agree. The low level clouds around the storm just aren't responding if it were to have an LLC. Its all midlevel.


That MLC won't take too much time to spin down, in a less hostile environment, anyways. While shear remains elevated, don't expect that to happen.
i wounder if JIMENA is giveing ERIKA some pointer i wounder if ERIKA is takeing notes

1663. sar2401
Quoting 1647. rxse7en:



Still have it slowing down, but now it will be over water on this track. Went from a TD to TS on Day 5. Jax on dirty side if this holds up.
I wonder about that right hook that keeps being shown at the end of the five day track as well. If it really moves across the Gulf as depicted, I can't see what's going to turn it more NE, especially given that it is supposed to be weak by then.
Quoting 1627. rxse7en:




An upper level recon mission with Gulfstream IV “Gonzo" that finished and landed in Florida a few hrs ago

Quoting 1629. kmanislander:



18.5 is right along that Peninsula and looks good to me. Just don't see it making the Windward passage from where it is currently located. Holding it as a TS was the right call though. Still quite robust considering how a weak storm like this has defied all the odds.


I still say it's on the S coast

Quoting 1635. rxse7en:

Center according to NHC as of 11pm:





I say it's at same longitude but on the S coast

If this trend of models continues then I'll be feeling impacts from it for sure.
1666. Michfan
Quoting 1661. ecflweatherfan:



That MLC won't take too much time to spin down, in a less hostile environment, anyways. While shear remains elevated, don't expect that to happen.


Which is why we are all still here. :D
1667. sar2401
Quoting 1660. FOREX:

Erika is so weak, very few models are able to even latch on to her. Looks like we are close to RIP status.
Only in the electronic world of models. I don't think that's so true in the world of real life.
18.3 or .5 would be my best guess. I am surprised it could cross those high mountains and still be intact on the other side. I recall another storm that came up from the South just East of Jamaica and got its head cut off by that peninsula.
The rest spiralled to the West after that.

Anyway that is enough fun for one evening. Let's see where Erika is in the morning.
Quoting 1648. ncstorm:

This is about the tightest cluster of ensembles I have seen for Erika since it formed..unfortunately it covers the pretty much the entire peninsula of Florida

00z Short Range Ensembles..



Problem is, current location is West and South of all the consensus paths. We can likely throw those out the window. Erika is about to surprise and Tampa to Panhandle to New Orleans better stay vigilant.
1670. jrb01
Quoting 1653. Sangria:

What's up with the area over the Keys and north of it having a higher % of TS winds at 0 hour?



It's not at 0 hour, it's cumulative chance over the next 5 days. Since there's a chance of Erika restrengthening over the FL Straits, there's a chance (30-40%) that the Keys will see TS force winds.
Quoting 1664. wunderkidcayman:



An upper level recon mission with Gulfstream IV “Gonzo" that finished and landed in Florida a few hrs ago



I still say it's on the S coast



I say it's at same longitude but on the S coast




The mean center means that there are likely more then 1 circulation rotating around and that is the center of that.
1672. Sangria
Quoting 1659. Hurricanes101:



I likely because she will weaken to a TD, so the area between the two yellow spots has a lower chance at TS force winds. The yellow spot by the keys is about where they forecast her to become a TS again if she survives, so that area has a higher chance of TS force winds then the area northward right now.

Kind of look at it as two different probabilities for this storm, one for Hispaniola and Cub and the other for the Florida straits and Florida


I would buy that, except that is for the "0" hour in the new advisory. It just doesn't make sense that the Keys would be in that high of a % of TS winds right now.
I'm old-fashioned. I like to read the whooooole thing.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Dropsondes from the NOAA P3 flying around Hispaniola were very
helpful in locating the mean center of the broad circulation
associated with Erika, which is moving over the high terrain of
Hispaniola. There is plenty of deep convection associated with the
cyclone, and gusts to tropical storm force are being reported
in Barahona, on the south coast of the Dominican Republic. Given
that the circulation is interacting with land, the initial intensity
has been set at 40 kt. Erika is fighting both land and a hostile
wind shear environment, and it will be very difficult for the
cyclone to recover. Consequently, weakening in the short term is
indicated in the NHC forecast, and there is a strong likelihood
that Erika will degenerate to a tropical wave during its interaction
with land. However, if it survives, there is a very small
opportunity for Erika to regain tropical storm strength in the
Florida Straits and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico,
where the
environment is less hostile. It is interesting to note, and to
remember, the fact that most of the state-of-the art dynamical
models were forecasting Erika to become a strong hurricane up to
yesterday, and today basically dissipate the cyclone.

The initial motion is uncertain, and the best estimate is toward the
west-northwest or 285 degrees at 17 kt.
It seems that Erika has
changed very little in forward speed since its formation. However,
the cyclone is reaching the southwestern edge of the subtropical
ridge and the steering currents are weaker. Therefore, Erika is
forecast to slow down and turn to the northwest in about two days.
Once in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, a more northerly track is
anticipated.
There is not much track guidance available tonight
since most of the models lose the circulation of Erika, and the NHC
forecast is following the weak perturbation observed in the model
fields.


The greatest short-term threat posed by Erika continues to be very
heavy rainfall over portions of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. These
rains could produce flash floods and mudslides.

We must emphasize that although this would normally be an
appropriate time for a tropical storm watch for portions of southern
Florida, following typical timelines, we have elected to wait until
we see if Erika survives after it passes Hispaniola. There is a
significant chance that no watches or warnings for Florida will be
required.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 18.5N 72.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 29/1200Z 20.0N 75.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 30/0000Z 22.0N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 30/1200Z 23.5N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 31/0000Z 25.0N 82.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 26.5N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 31.0N 84.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila
NHC in an impossible situation. Land interaction should verify what they're saying. But this is a very weak system with great convection and a huge wind field. Could do anything, this is a unique situation not often seen.
Quoting 1656. JeffMasters:

A personal weather station in Barahona, Dominican Republic, has recorded 16.13" of rain between 1 pm and 10 pm, including 8.80" in one hour from 8 pm to 9 pm:

http://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-stat ion/dashboard?ID=IBARAHON3

Rainfall at that level is going to cause extreme flooding, though it is possible the measurement was bad.

Dr. M.


And to think there's more rain to come, I don't think daybreak is going to be pretty. Thoughts to those in Haiti/Dominican Republic, hopefully there won't be much loss of life, if any.
Quoting 1668. kmanislander:

18.3 or .5 would be my best guess. I am surprised it could cross those high mountains and still be intact on the other side. I recall another storm that came up from the South just East of Jamaica and got its head cut off by that peninsula.
The rest spiralled to the West after that.

Anyway that is enough fun for one evening. Let's see where Erika is in the morning.


I had stated a few days ago that it is possible that a shallow system can fare better over the tough terrain. Powerful storms get shredded because their circulation is aligned at all levels, so there is more to disrupt

Fay, Jeanne and Hanna were not impressive storms and survived the trek over Hispaniola with Jeanne and Fay going the long way East to West
1678. Patrap
1664. wunderkidcayman
3:05 AM GMT on August 29, 2015

I did edit my message to correct the post as to the Windward passage.
1680. MahFL
Quoting 1645. BahaHurican:

.... I have seen other cyclones over Hispaniola, but they generally don't look like this:



I agree, TS Erika looks quite healthy and is likely back over warm waters.
Quoting 1649. sar2401:

You disagree with the results of dropsondes from a P-3? You have your own airplane with different results? We already had a recon flight that confirmed this. It's inland over the DR, and 18.5 looks right to me.


Let me ask you what P-3 when

Because the very last mission was a upper level recon mission with a Gulfstream IV named Gonzo
Can you show these results from this P-3
Quoting 1625. wpb:

It is interesting to note, and to
remember, the fact that most of the state-of-the art dynamical
models were forecasting Erika to become a strong hurricane up to
yesterday, and today basically dissipate the cyclone.

This is CYA commentary. In other words, we're just following the dynamicals .... don't blame me if they're wrong .... Thing is, there was enough support at the time to make the other solutions plausible ....
Quoting 1668. kmanislander:

18.3 or .5 would be my best guess. I am surprised it could cross those high mountains and still be intact on the other side. I recall another storm that came up from the South just East of Jamaica and got its head cut off by that peninsula.
The rest spiralled to the West after that.

Anyway that is enough fun for one evening. Let's see where Erika is in the morning.
Well, I guess Erika will be herself ....
1683. ncstorm
There is not much track guidance available tonight
since most of the models lose the circulation of Erika, and the NHC
forecast is following the weak perturbation observed in the model
fields.


Wow..they in the dark..
1684. Patrap
Quoting 1681. wunderkidcayman:



Let me ask you what P-3 when

Because the very last mission was a upper level recon mission with a Gulfstream IV named Gonzo
Can you show these results from this P-3


The one they talked about in the very first line in the discussion. Seems like you see only what you want to see.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Dropsondes from the NOAA P3 flying around Hispaniola were very
helpful in locating the mean center of the broad circulation
associated with Erika, which is moving over the high terrain of
Hispaniola.
1686. sar2401
Quoting 1646. wunderkidcayman:

Oh the centre that NHC has chosen may actually not be the actual centre but a mean centre so it could very well be where I said it was moving W

Anyway only one way to find out and that's to have a recon flight
Until the results don't agree with what you think they should be. Then we'll need another flight. Really, this gets a little tiresome.
Quoting 1677. Hurricanes101:



I had stated a few days ago that it is possible that a shallow system can fare better over the tough terrain. Powerful storms get shredded because their circulation is aligned at all levels, so there is more to disrupt

Fay, Jeanne and Hanna were not impressive storms and survived the trek over Hispaniola with Jeanne and Fay going the long way East to West


Yes it has happened before.

I'm out for tonight.
1688. Sangria
Quoting 1670. jrb01:


It's not at 0 hour, it's cumulative chance over the next 5 days. Since there's a chance of Erika restrengthening over the FL Straits, there's a chance (30-40%) that the Keys will see TS force winds.


I just looked at it again. That graphic page must be jacked up, or not completely loaded yet.
The recon found an 11 knot WSW wind south of Hispaniola, so it looks like Erika still has some sort of LLC.
1690. sar2401
Quoting 1681. wunderkidcayman:



Let me ask you what P-3 when

Because the very last mission was a upper level recon mission with a Gulfstream IV named Gonzo
Can you show these results from this P-3
Try taking the time to read the discussion.
1691. Patrap
Quoting 1631. IKE:

So much for it being an open wave.


I'm not so sure of that Ike. The NHC has a lot of considerations when deciding to issue or stop issuing advisories. They are not all strictly scientific data points (which honestly lack to confirm or deny a llc) that guide there decision making...and this is fine, they are much more than just a scientific organization. They have things like public safety to consider. That said, I still hold that if we had all the data points, we would find an open wave right now...and Cuba ain't going to help that situation.

EDIT- I missed the dropsonde report with a WSW wind, but I'm not sure that truly makes it a closed circulation. "Broad" & "mean" are not terms I associate with a typical closed circulation tropical system.
I'm off to bed, y'all... though I'll prolly lurk for a while longer.
1694. MahFL
Our local tv met Tim Deegan, who I have met at the tv studios, says here in JAX we can expect a FOOT of rain from Erika and MAJOR flooding is expected.
1695. RM706
WoW, gone for a good couple hours and come back and you mean Erika hasn't gone POOF just yet?? Very surprised indeed. Guess I will check on her POOF status first thing in the morning while waiting on the next one to roll on in lol.
Last post for sure.

WNW looks like a best estimate by the NHC. Could also be more to the West ( and thus a tad farther South now ? ).

Tomorrow the visible imagery and a HH in the Windward passage will enlighten everyone.

Good night.
Quoting 1655. unknowncomic:

Back over water then.
Possibly. And Cuba awaits.
1699. rxse7en
Erika creeping in on GITMO radar: LINK
night all
Quoting 1683. ncstorm:

There is not much track guidance available tonight
since most of the models lose the circulation of Erika, and the NHC
forecast is following the weak perturbation observed in the model
fields.


Wow..they in the dark..


Yes, like never before. Erika is likely to move more West and South than models are handling. Everything changes and NHC may for the first time in a long time, find themselves in catch up mode. Land interaction should kill Erika, but just where is Erika headed?? No one has a clue. The best in the world have no clue. Very exciting.
1702. emguy
Yup...but it's 24 hours old and initialized poorly. At that point...Erika was south of Puerto Rico.
This is about the tightest cluster of ensembles I have seen for Erika since it formed..unfortunately it covers pretty much the entire peninsula of Florida

00z Short Range Ensembles..

Tomorrow Sarasota County will be making the decision as to whether to close schools on Monday based on the 11am advisory. Might be difficult if the advisory looks like this:

"No idea. We're going out for drinks. Good luck."
1704. Patrap
Erika Long Floater - Water Vapor Imagery Loop

Zoom and controls are active.

TFP's are available
TS Erika is something else. I don't believe it will cross over Hispaniola. Sad to say I believe it will hug the southern coast and head to the windward passage. The track will change. I am no meterologist. But I have seen a storm or two and this systems has stayed alive thus far. A track change is surely coming.
The big issue is that on the current NHC track (and I do not see it changing much now from this), it takes Erika 48 hours to go from just north of Key West to just past Tampa/St Pete.

That is a lot of rain for a long period of time for the state.
Quoting 1705. mysticloud:

TS Erika is something else. I don't believe it will cross over Hispaniola. Sad to say I believe it will hug the southern coast and head to the windward passage. The track will change. I am no meterologist. But I have seen a storm or two and this systems has stayed alive thus far. A track change is surely coming.


She already crossed Hispaniola
1709. MahFL
Waters around Haiti are 2C warmer than what Erika had earlier in her life.
And 3C warmer off the SW cost of FL.

Jimena
1711. FOREX
Quoting 1705. mysticloud:

TS Erika is something else. I don't believe it will cross over Hispaniola. Sad to say I believe it will hug the southern coast and head to the windward passage. The track will change. I am no meterologist. But I have seen a storm or two and this systems has stayed alive thus far. A track change is surely coming.
The cone has already moved a couple hundred miles West.
Quoting 1689. MaxL1023:

The recon found an 11 knot WSW wind south of Hispaniola, so it looks like Erika still has some sort of LLC.


Where are you getting this recon data

Quoting 1685. Hurricanes101:



The one they talked about in the very first line in the discussion. Seems like you see only what you want to see.

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

Dropsondes from the NOAA P3 flying around Hispaniola were very
helpful in locating the mean center of the broad circulation
associated with Erika, which is moving over the high terrain of
Hispaniola.


No I've seen that I meant the actual data

I'm looking on live recon and thee is no planes out there now

Unless it's talking about the recon flight that was out there before the the very last mission then ok

Quoting 1697. kmanislander:

Last post for sure.

WNW looks like a best estimate by the NHC. Could also be more to the West ( and thus a tad farther South now ? ).

Tomorrow the visible imagery and a HH in the Windward passage will enlighten everyone.

Good night.


Agreed
1713. Patrap
Funktop Loop

1714. ncstorm
Quoting 1702. emguy:

Yup...but it's 24 hours old and initialized poorly. At that point...Erika was south of Puerto Rico.
This is about the tightest cluster of ensembles I have seen for Erika since it formed..unfortunately it covers pretty much the entire peninsula of Florida

00z Short Range Ensembles..




24 hours old?
Oh snap NHC just agreed with me. Then Jamaica could be affected. This just got serious.
I think Erika is going POOF soon and surprised it already hasn't.
Quoting 1712. wunderkidcayman:



Where are you getting this recon data



No I've seen that I meant the actual data

I'm looking on live recon and thee is no planes out there now

Unless it's talking about the recon flight that was out there before the the very last mission then ok



Agreed


So you are now questioning the NHC on where they got the information? Do you think they are lying?
Many thanks to all who have contributed scientific data and light hearted commentary in the face of actual and foreseeable trajedy. You have restored my faith in internet humanity. Best wishes and safe harbour to all.
1719. nash36
Quoting 1695. RM706:




Well, that settles it!

LOL! I swear...If one were to play a drinking game, and take a shot every time the WV showed multiple vorticies, or every time the models shifted, that person would wake up with their liver sitting next to them, having a cup of coffee.
Quoting 1628. Hurricanes101:




Am hoping this track stays put as it is now, a low end TS in Tallahassee could be fun, and school would probably still get canceled, making a good opportunity to goof around with fellow weather nerds here, lol.

My guess based on steering is that it could shift a little more left or a little back to the right, but this seems like a solid outcome for the track ASSUMING it actually makes it into the gulf alive.

Still hardly a high confidence forecast yet of course.
Atlantic recon in the last thirty minutes...
There has been no recent recon for
the products our site checks.
1722. Patrap
Quoting 1715. mysticloud:

Oh snap NHC just agreed with me. Then Jamaica could be affected. This just got serious.


Um no, NHC shows she crossed Hispaniola already and is headed for Cuba
Erika battling, but for how long? Que "Eye of the Tiger"
1725. FOREX
Quoting 1716. weatherxtreme:

I think Erika is going POOF soon and surprised it already hasn't.
Agree, her chances of survival are slim.
Quoting 1720. Jedkins01:



Am hoping this track stays put as it is now, a low end TS in Tallahassee could be fun, and school would probably still get canceled, making a good opportunity to goof around with fellow weather nerds here, lol.

My guess is that it could shift a little more left or a little back to the right, but this seems like a solid outcome for the track ASSUMING it actually makes it into the gulf alive.


That would be a lot of rain for us wouldn't it?
I said last nite.....WEST she goes following the BAM models.....WEST she goes.
1728. Michfan
Tonight's GFS is going to be entertaining.
Quoting 1717. Hurricanes101:



So you are now questioning the NHC on where they got the information? Do you think they are lying?


No

Though sometime I do question them sometimes

But in this case no

I just want to know which P-3 recon flight and when was this flight and how come I don't see the recon data for it on the recon page

1730. MahFL
Quoting 1724. RavensFan:

Erika battling, but for how long? Que "Eye of the Tiger"


Believe me Erika will be going strong in Ohio.
Recon is near Ignacio right now
Texas, meet Erika.
1733. nash36
Quoting 1728. Michfan:

Tonight's GFS is going to be entertaining.


If by entertaining, you mean dissipation after 24hrs in the run, then yeah. I agree. Then again, I'll cackle like Hillary Clinton if it does a 180, and shows a major hurricane crawling up the EAST coast of FL. Given the way the models have performed over the last few days, that type of ridiculous run wouldn't surprise me in the least.
Quoting 1726. Hurricanes101:



That would be a lot of rain for us wouldn't it?


More than likely yes, especially with strong upper level winds out of the southwest, meaning heavy rain mainly to the east and north, think Debby lopsided nastyness. Of course, each system is unique in structure, but yeah, my point is that it favors heavy rain displaced to the north and east.
Well Erika was certainly entertaining and a big drain on the ole' eyes for sure the last several days or so but looks like she is about done and ready to go POOF. Guess its better luck next time.
I would not be surprised that Erika stay south of Cuba.
1737. tj175
Quoting 1662. Tazmanian:

i wounder if JIMENA is giveing ERIKA some pointer i wounder if ERIKA is takeing notes





I couldn't even imagine if Erika looked liked that and had the same path it does now. Beautiful beautiful storm Jimena is
Quoting 1732. bryanfromkyleTX:

Texas, meet Erika.


There is going to be a weakness in the Eastern Gulf. Regardless of the intensity of Erika, she will very likely not go further west than where they forecast her to be now
1739. ncstorm
Okay, its been real but I'm out..

Later..
does anyone think that Ericka could do a charley where when it hits the gulf stream could intensify rapidly by the east coast of florida
Quoting 1729. wunderkidcayman:



No

Though sometime I do question them sometimes

But in this case no

I just want to know which P-3 recon flight and when was this flight and how come I don't see the recon data for it on the recon page




Mission 9

Here is the last Radar Fix

27.648594N 82.209969W
Aug. 28th 12:56:46Z

Quoting 1738. Hurricanes101:



There is going to be a weakness in the Eastern Gulf. Regardless of the intensity of Erika, she will very likely not go further west than where they forecast her to be now


Steering layer maps at the weakest levels so she may continue West.

Also if I did mention this already sfc obs in Haiti do indicate the centre of Erika would be on the S coast rather than N near 18.5N so it's a bit kinda conflicting

Anyway we will see where this thing really is when we get the next recon and in daylight when the visible are up

I still say it's on the S coast but ok I will bite on to NHC position for now
1744. guygee
Quoting 1642. Michfan:



Yeah i meant Windward and i agree. The low level clouds around the storm just aren't responding if it were to have an LLC. Its all midlevel.
I agree. All along Erika has struggled with its LLC, hard to even see one the last couple days. As Avila said, the "alleged center". Erika has a strong MLC that can pass over the mountains relatively unscathed. It is its possible redevelopment past the greater Antilles that concerns me the most.
1745. Patrap
1746. nash36
Quoting 1735. weatherxtreme:

Well Erika was certainly entertaining and a big drain on the ole' eyes for sure the last several days or so but looks like she is about done and ready to go POOF. Guess its better luck next time.


Given the current forecast, and the expected crawl in forward speed, a better scenario may have been a swiftly moving CAT 1 hurricane. A storm that gets in, gets out, and doesn't have destructive winds. With this system, you're looking at the possibility of torrential rainfall, massive flooding and loss of life and property.
1747. MahFL
Shear is only 15 kts or so now.

1748. Grothar
Quoting 1746. nash36:



Given the current forecast, and the expected crawl in forward speed, a better scenario may have been a swiftly moving CAT 1 hurricane. A storm that gets in, gets out, and doesn't have destructive winds. With this system, you're looking at the possibility of torrential rainfall, massive flooding and loss of life and property.


especially considering most of Florida is already above average in rainfall for the year
OK guys, almost got this thing to work...could some WD-40 and a tire iron?...
1751. MahFL
TCHP for the path of Erika is quite high, which will aid intensification, or survivabilty.



Quoting 1747. MahFL:

Shear is only 15 kts or so now.



Wouldn't be a bad path between, if Erika can get there.
1753. Patrap
2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Quoting 1741. ProgressivePulse:



Mission 9

Here is the last Radar Fix

27.648594N 82.209969W
Aug. 28th 12:56:46Z




Oooh ok that was a good time ago though mission 09

Ok guys I see it now
Anamoly
1756. emguy
Yes...it says 00z for August 28th....(which was for Friday @ midnight UTC/ZULU)...the current run is 00z August 29th.

Quoting 1714. ncstorm:



24 hours old?
Quoting 1754. wunderkidcayman:



Oooh ok that was a good time ago though mission 09

Ok guys I see it now



They take the last "Concrete" fix, which was that one, and follow it in time.
1758. RevInFL
How wide is Erika approximately?
I'm calling my shot....goes below Cuba shoots through the uprights and unfortunately blows up..those Temps are extremely high...but the more west she goes more west the cone goes myself just north of Orange Beach, Al
Patrap..I swear it looks like it's to the south not north...jmo
Quoting 1749. Hurricanes101:



especially considering most of Florida is already above average in rainfall for the year
Tampa area way above normal precip this year.
1762. ncstorm
Quoting 1756. emguy:

Yes...it says 00z for August 28th....(which was for Friday @ midnight UTC zulu...the current run is 00z August 29th.




NCEP site has that map for that run for the Atlantic Region..must be a typo but thats what came out just now..

You can email Tim at NOAA and let him know your issue..
Quoting 1743. wunderkidcayman:

Also if I did mention this already sfc obs in Haiti do indicate the centre of Erika would be on the S coast rather than N near 18.5N so it's a bit kinda conflicting

Anyway we will see where this thing really is when we get the next recon and in daylight when the visible are up

I still say it's on the S coast but ok I will bite on to NHC position for now


With all due respect the NHC has always had the center north of where the
track has been for the last 3 days.... They also have been showing a WNW
turn as well. It just has not happened as we all know the almost due West
track. So yes the storm is still moving west and the cone will move west too....

Taco :o)
1764. nash36
Quoting 1759. Nolehead:

I'm calling my shot....goes below Cuba shoots through the uprights and unfortunately blows up..those Temps are extremely high...but the more west she goes more west the cone goes myself just north of Orange Beach, Al


The water can be 100 degrees. Doesn't matter. It won't be able to take advantage through 20-40kts of shear, as is depicted from SE-NW; which, is her current forecast track.
1765. FOREX
Quoting 1759. Nolehead:

I'm calling my shot....goes below Cuba shoots through the uprights and unfortunately blows up..those Temps are extremely high...but the more west she goes more west the cone goes myself just north of Orange Beach, Al
Calm down. just kidding. lol
Quoting 1697. kmanislander:

Last post for sure.

WNW looks like a best estimate by the NHC. Could also be more to the West ( and thus a tad farther South now ? ).

Tomorrow the visible imagery and a HH in the Windward passage will enlighten everyone.

Good night.



West to the windward passage of the straights to the GOMEX - then limited steering = confusion.

Sigh -- continues to be a watch, wait and see squall.

older than GRO, --- Nod to K'Man
1767. Michfan


Of course the GFS doesn't initialize it. Dropped before it even started.
Lol...I know it's a long shot but shear is supposed to relax a tad..who knows what this girl is going to do..lol
1769. Michfan


Over Cuba at 18 hours.
1770. nash36
Quoting 1767. Michfan:



Of course the GFS doesn't initialize it. Dropped before it even started.


Well hot-chocolate %$!^!!! It even exceeded my projection! LOL!
1771. sar2401
Quoting 1769. Michfan:



Over Cuba at 18 hours.
That's the only time it shows the low out to hour 42 now.
Near the keys at 36 hours
Quoting 1763. taco2me61:



With all due respect the NHC has always had the center north of where the
track has been for the last 3 days.... They also have been showing a WNW
turn as well. It just has not happened as we all know the almost due West
track. So yes the storm is still moving west and the cone will move west too....

Taco :o)


Yep

Quoting 1769. Michfan:



Over Cuba at 18 hours.


That would be Cuba S coast that is

1774. MahFL
I just remembered the 1982 Twickenham Streaker was called Erika, could be an omen.
Anyway I'm going into lurk mode for an hour or so be back later
'Wave' goodbye to Erika; IMO, she will be a goner.
Can't wait to see, though, here in St. Augustine we could be in for a ton of rain.
GFS stalls what is left of Erika in the Eastern Gulf
1778. Michfan


Dissipates at 36



Regenerates in gulf at 54
Quoting 1775. wunderkidcayman:

Anyway I'm going into lurk mode for an hour or so be back later


I'm out too for the night.... I'll check on "It" in the morning to see where
"It" will be, and how much more west "It" has moved....


Taco :o)
On Dvorak run she looks like she has pulled in her blobs and reconstituted a center south of Haiti.
1781. sar2401
Quoting 1749. Hurricanes101:



especially considering most of Florida is already above average in rainfall for the year
Although it's probably less than half the state. South and north Florida are certainly not waterlogged.
I know this is a bit off topic, so I could get banned, but this one if for Scott.




Plus with all the arguing over whether Erika is an open wave or not, the blog could use some fun and relaxation on a Friday evening :)
Quoting 1781. sar2401:

Although it's probably less than half the state. South and north Florida are certainly not waterlogged.


Southeast Florida and parts of the panhandle are not waterlogged

Everyone else pretty much is, especially the West coast
1784. MahFL
TS Erika looks a bit scary :



1785. sar2401
Quoting 1778. Michfan:



Dissipates at 36



Regenerates in gulf at 54
Then it's gone again at 66. Pretty worthless model run.
1786. nash36
I will say that I found it interesting and refreshing when Dr. Postel and Carl Parker both showed their humble side. They said, "they had no idea" about the future of Erika.

These two men have a ton of combined experience. It should give everyone pause. This storm......has baffled the best.
regenerates the low after that

any possibility this continues to slide west to allow it to reorganize some...just under Cuba's coast before making a more northerly turn? I'd worry about that trek more than the current forecast as far was FL is concerned.
1789. nash36
Quoting 1782. Jedkins01:

I know this is a bit off topic, so I could get banned, but this one if for Scott.




Plus with all the arguing over whether Erika is an open wave or not, the blog could use some fun and relaxation on a Friday evening :)


LOVE IT!!!! Thanks, Jed!!!! I wholeheartedly agree. We need some humor. Everyone takes themselves too seriously.
1790. MahFL
This radar shows a pretty obvious NW movement now :




1791. emguy
I doubt it's a typo...sometimes the links just don't fully update at same time. It's clear it's yesterday's run ;) I'm not having an issue...just commenting on what you posted.

Quoting 1762. ncstorm:



NCEP site has that map for that run for the Atlantic Region..must be a typo but thats what came out just now..

You can email Tim at NOAA and let him know your issue..
1792. BayFog
Quoting 1737. tj175:




I couldn't even imagine if Erika looked liked that and had the same path it does now. Beautiful beautiful storm Jimena is

Still rapidly intensifying. Forecast in 24 hours to hit 155 mph sustained. Needless to say, Cat 5.
1793. Grothar
Quoting 1779. taco2me61:



I'm out too for the night.... I'll check on "It" in the morning to see where
"It" will be, and how much more west "It" has moved....


Taco :o)


You said it!
1794. Michfan


Still stuck in the Gulf at 84 hours.
My guess (and my hope) is that she turns north after sliding past Jamaica and skewers herself on Cuba's mountains.
Quoting 1782. Jedkins01:

Plus with all the arguing over whether Erika is an open wave or not, the blog could use some fun and relaxation on a Friday evening :)



Humorous memes/gifs are always entertaining at random points with people debating here. :)
1798. sar2401
Quoting 1783. Hurricanes101:



Southeast Florida and parts of the panhandle are not waterlogged

Everyone else pretty much is, especially the West coast
Pensacola is slightly above average. Melbourne is above average. Tampa is far above average. The rest of the state ranges from near average to far below average.

My guess (and my hope) is that she turns north after sliding past Jamaica and skewers herself on Cuba's mountains.
1800. aquak9
Erika made me buy Spam.

Damn you Erika.

What have I become?
1801. nash36
Quoting 1800. aquak9:

Erika made me buy Spam.

Damn you Erika.

What have I become?


Quote of the night.
1802. MahFL
Spam is a pretty good survival food.
The death toll on the island of Dominica has risen to at least 20 this evening, and an additional 31 are still considered missing. Damage has been widespread and extensive, with hundreds of destroyed houses, bridges, and roads. The prime minister said in a statement this afternoon that "We have, in essence, to rebuild Dominica." He also said that the island had been set back 20 years due to Erika.

Meanwhile, Hispaniola is currently experiencing the worst of Erika. We won't know the extent of damage and causalities until tomorrow at the earliest, but given the susceptibility of the island, I doubt the outcome will be good.

I think Erika has a legitimate chance of joining Allison next spring.
Model runs cannot predict the future of a sustaining tropical system tonight. All runs shouldn't be taken as gospel tonight because they are looking at a dissipating storm, which in reality, Erika is sustaining herself nicely. She made it through Hispaniola and I have a feeling she will take a turn north of Cuba.
Quoting 1798. sar2401:

Pensacola is slightly above average. Melbourne is above average. Tampa is far above average. The rest of the state ranges from near average to far below average.




A lot of the rain for a lot of North and Central Florida have occurred recently, more than average for the summer. that is going to cause issues. It is not necessarily what it is compared to year to date, it is the rain that has fallen since the middle of July that is the problem. A lot of grounds in Central florida are still saturated
1806. FOREX
Quoting 1800. aquak9:

Erika made me buy Spam.

Damn you Erika.

What have I become?
I;m now in the center of the cone if you want I'll buy it off ya'.
Quoting 1800. aquak9:

Erika made me buy Spam.

Damn you Erika.

What have I become?


That's nothing. You know you've really hit rock bottom when you rush out to stock up on bulk Vienna sausages and generic beef jerky at Sam's.
1808. sar2401
Quoting 1788. cntrclckwiseSpenn:

any possibility this continues to slide west to allow it to reorganize some...just under Cuba's coast before making a more northerly turn? I'd worry about that trek more than the current forecast as far was FL is concerned.
Who knows? Until we see an actual NW turn, we won't know that.
1809. houstex
Interesting Windward Passage cloud cover movement from the vantage point of Guantanamo Bay:

http://www.weather.com/weather/map/interactive/l/ CUXX0016:1:CU?interactiveMapLayer=sat&baseMap=r

Click on the clouds icon at the top of the page and loop it
1810. MahFL
Gulp...shear has reduced even more :

Quoting 1744. guygee:

I agree. All along Erika has struggled with its LLC, hard to even see one the last couple days. As Avila said, the "alleged center". Erika has a strong MLC that can pass over the mountains relatively unscathed. It is its possible redevelopment past the greater Antilles that concerns me the most.


I'm a busy working dad these days. I don't get to read every word of every discussion...Very sad I missed Avila typing " alleged center". That's as funny as it gets. :-)
1812. sar2401
Quoting 1805. Hurricanes101:



A lot of the rain for a lot of North and Central Florida have occurred recently, more than average for the summer. that is going to cause issues. It is not necessarily what it is compared to year to date, it is the rain that has fallen since the middle of July that is the problem. A lot of grounds in Central florida are still saturated
Oh, I agree. It's just that the Tampa-Melbourne corridor does not represent most of the state. For most of the state, some non-extreme rain would be welcome. I'm good with five inches or so up here before there are any problems.
1813. Dakster
Quoting 1800. aquak9:

Erika made me buy Spam.

Damn you Erika.

What have I become?


Don't worry - Spam doesn't ever go bad... You can save it for the next one. Or the apocalypse.
1814. Michfan
Honestly, Erika could still over throw the models and restrengthen to at least a Category 1 storm if it can manage to stay north of Cuba. We have the warmest waters in the Atlantic in the straight and southeastern gulf. This is a wait and see situation. We should know more tomorrow, but maybe not. Heck, most of my customers at Target were buying packs and packs of water and batteries. Apparently Palm Coast residents cannot handle a tropical storm. Kind of comical in a way, yet sad. Although I will say this, our power goes out very easily in this county.
1816. Patrap
Note the lil bloom appendage at 7 o'clock on the western side of the Convective burst.

"Spam,
spam,
spam,
spam,

It's da Spam, Spam, the WUnderful Spam'..







1817. sar2401
Quoting 1800. aquak9:

Erika made me buy Spam.

Damn you Erika.

What have I become?
A prepper!!!
1818. Patrap
I mentioned 1994's TS Alberto earlier, with extreme flooding caused by a stalled system. This is showing almost an identical situation- the exact same area that Alberto devastated.

1820. Michfan
Basic jist of GFS:

Turns into Open wave and axis crosses Cuba. Exits west of FL Keys and regenerates. Meanders a bit in Gulf then heads for Tallahassee area.

Like i said entertaining because the initialization was as an open wave and the GFS is iffy with them. Would have to see model consistency first, which we probably won't.
1821. nash36
Quoting 1811. StormJunkie:



I'm a busy working dad these days. I don't get to read every word of every discussion...Very sad I missed Avila typing " alleged center". That's as funny as it gets. :-)


He was tame, comparatively. At this point, I was expecting a drunken sailor who no longer gave two tugs off of a dead rats rear.

In other words...Lixion has mellowed a bit.
1822. emguy
My only wish about Erika....is I wish there was recon out there tonight. After hours of watching, I wonder if they'd find falling surface pressures between the southwestern tip of Haiti and the eastern tip of Jamaica.

I still believe what was the parent circulation of Erika died sometime after 5 PM today...but it seems that broad rotation between Haiti and Jamaica has been slowly tightening a bit...although weak and subtle...it there's any curculation...it's there with a decent sized envelope.

See it here.

Link
1823. nash36
Quoting 1820. Michfan:

Basic jist of GFS:

Turns into Open wave and axis crosses Cuba. Exits west of FL Keys and regenerates. Meanders a bit in Gulf then heads for Tallahassee area.

Like i said entertaining because the initialization was as an open wave and the GFS is iffy with them. Would to see model consistency first, which we probably won't.


Even the models have mailed it in. They're exhausted.
Quoting 1800. aquak9:

Erika made me buy Spam.

Damn you Erika.

What have I become?

Fry it hard, slap a slice of cheese on it, encase it I mayo slathered wonder toast....and, well, that's a fine, fine meal for a couple days....now if it's one of this storms where it turns out to be a few weeks....They are just not the same after three weeks of them.
So Erika is continuing west and is leaving Hispiniola... seemingly not having been adversely effected at all...

So has Jamaica been put under a warning yet?! Because that seems to be where she is headed.

I'm worried, what with much of the worst shear backing off from the parts of the Carribean with some of the highest heat content anywhere. I don't even know if I'll be surprised if she pulls a Paloma or a Wilma if she makes it further west, I honestly don't have any clue what will happen anymore. I just find it eerie that shear is lessening along her path, like she's Moses or something.

In the end, if the destruction she has already caused isn't reason enough, Erica might get retired from the list because of how many years she has taken from the lifespans of NHC staffers and bloggers.
1826. guygee
Quoting 1811. StormJunkie:



I'm a busy working dad these days. I don't get to read every word of every discussion...Very sad I missed Avila typing " alleged center". That's as funny as it gets. :-)
Agreed SJ. Here is the link for your enjoyment: TROPICAL STORM ERIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
1827. Michfan




Very sheared system to the east.
Quoting 1650. Hurricanes101:


I guess St Petersburg, Clearwater, Kenneth City, St Pete Beach, Palm Harbor and areas like that do not count?


Well....unless you're splitting hairs they don't count. Several days out and you're giving one forcast for Tampa westward??? Please. See movie Robinhood Men in Tights for verification. At the great bridge crossing fight, Achoo says "I'm on one side, see? I'm on the other side. I'm on the other side. I'm on the east bank. I'm on the west bank. It is not that critical."
1829. Dakster
Quoting 1727. TampaSpin:

I said last nite.....WEST she goes following the BAM models.....WEST she goes.


How's the rain been in Tampa? I remember you asking for rain awhile ago, I sent some you way. Do you still need more?
1830. MahFL
Very little dry air left now between Erika and Florida.

1831. Dakster
Quoting 1817. sar2401:

A prepper!!!


I'm a prepper, she's a prepper, wouldn't you like to be a prepper too?
I'm suddenly getting a bad feeling about Erika. Don't know why. I pretty much convinced myself that she was a goner. She's done a ton of damage in Dominica and Hispanolia. Now I'm starting to feel like she's not done.

Of course, I've also had a couple beers so....
1833. 19N81W
Dear Erika

You haven't done anything the nhc said you were going to do in terms of track, so, based on this come to Cayman we will welcome you with open arms.
Only getting one slide an hour...better 'n nuthin'...
Quoting 1832. BobinTampa:

I'm suddenly getting a bad feeling about Erika. Don't know why. I pretty much convinced myself that she was a goner. She's done a ton of damage in Dominica and Hispanolia. Now I'm starting to feel like she's not done.

Of course, I've also had a couple beers so.... Lol
Quoting 1832. BobinTampa:

I'm suddenly getting a bad feeling about Erika. Don't know why. I pretty much convinced myself that she was a goner. She's done a ton of damage in Dominica and Hispanolia. Now I'm starting to feel like she's not done.

Of course, I've also had a couple beers so....


well, she is moving at a decent clip, and seems to be the same status she was before crossing over hispanola...which wasn't a ton, but not nothing as many suggested she'd be at this point. I thought she would "survive" given the rate at which she is moving and the size. She hasn't ever been in a favorable environment either, but the longer she hangs on the more that can change.
1837. Patrap
Quoting 1834. Kowaliga:

Only getting one slide an hour...better 'n nuthin'...



My eyes spotted a NW jump.. We'll see where she's at in the morning.
Well...my prediction might come true after all of this. Erika is looking like a survivor!
Quoting 1825. LostTomorrows:

So Erika is continuing west and is leaving Hispiniola... seemingly not having been adversely effected at all...

So has Jamaica been put under a warning yet?! Because that seems to be where she is headed.

I'm worried, what with much of the worst shear backing off from the parts of the Carribean with some of the highest heat content anywhere. I don't even know if I'll be surprised if she pulls a Paloma or a Wilma if she makes it further west, I honestly don't have any clue what will happen anymore. I just find it eerie that shear is lessening along her path, like she's Moses or something.

In the end, if the destruction she has already caused isn't reason enough, Erica might get retired from the list because of how many years she has taken from the lifespans of NHC staffers and bloggers.


Nope nothing but a severe weather advisory for the weekend has been issued in Jamaica and when I went shopping earlier the stores were empty...sigh...I have a really bad feeling about this!!!
Link

Can't see the center of circulation on the wind field maps anymore........
1842. FOREX
Quoting 1839. TokininTampa:

Well...my prediction might after come true after all of this. Erika is looking like a survivor!
She always looks better at night. Tomorrow she will look decoupled and we will be calling the funeral home again.
1843. 19N81W
Just over cayman as usual

Quoting 1830. MahFL:

Very little dry air left now between Erika and Florida.


Quoting 1842. FOREX:

She always looks better at night. Tomorrow she will look decoupled and we will be calling the funeral home again.


Tomorrow will bring better conditions to both push through and to look forward to in the GOM.

As I said, she looks like a survivor. That is mighty dangerous!
Here are some links to area weather radar sources. The first is the Cuban Institute of Meteorology and the 2nd is a poor radar source from Guantanamo Bay.

Link



Link

1846. Michfan
Quoting 1841. SensesFail:

Link

Can't see the center of circulation on the wind field maps anymore........


That is not in real time.
1847. FOREX
Quoting 1844. TokininTampa:



Tomorrow will bring better conditions to both push through and to look forward to in the GOM.

As I said, she looks like a survivor. That is mighty dangerous!
You could be right. could go either way.
Quoting 1798. sar2401:

Pensacola is slightly above average. Melbourne is above average. Tampa is far above average. The rest of the state ranges from near average to far below average.




Well, Tampa International has had over 50 inches year to date so that image is old. Keep in mind that only covers select locations and misses large surface areas of the state. Yes parts of SE FL, NE FL, and the Panhandle have been drier than average, but there are many other areas that those locations miss. Some areas being well above average within 20 miles of much of the west coast of Florida. Many rivers across Central Florida have been in flood stage on and off for the last 2 months.

Then there's this, some areas just had way too much from mid July through Mid August:




But you're right, some parts of the state could really use the rain, especially SE Florida, but also here in Tallahassee and the upper Big Bend along with the NE FL/Jacksonville area. We're in a moderate drought here, so personally I'm happy too see a forecast path of a weak Erika over this region.


And for the areas that have had flooding and don't need it like back home in the Tampa Bay area, well it's part of living in the sunshine state where heavy rain events have a relatively high chance of happening during certain times of year.

During the rainy season where rainfall averages are 7-10 inches for the monthly precip average, and many days of 4-6 inch events have happened, inevitably it will rain too much occasionally, and flooding will happen.
1849. Patrap
To 415 UTC, New Frame

Quoting 1796. SouthCentralTx:




Humorous memes/gifs are always entertaining at random points with people debating here. :)


I got a 1 hour ban earlier for posting a funny gif. The ban came with a message that it was off-topic, but it was a gif about Erika.
Erica looks like somebody dressed her up like a supercell for Hallowe'en.
1852. Alagirl
I was in Key West earlier this summer; I'm rather glad I am not there now. It takes a while to get back to the mainland over that little two-lane road. If Erika holds together, forecasters and EMAs will have a dicey dance to do, to decide about whether to issue warnings and evacuations of the Florida Keys. Of course, Erika would have to intensify very quickly to be that much of a threat, and it still is going to have to drag its way over Cuba to get there. But, the water is so warm, and Erika seems surprisingly durable, doesn't she?
Looks like Pico Duarte was flattened by Erica.... Not the opposite....;)
Looks healthy... a real anular blob....

1854. Patrap
2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve



1855. MahFL
That looks like pretty good outflow on the west side :

1856. Patrap
Note the distinct pattern

Excuse me... Moving the forecast a little to the west...

Quoting 1816. Patrap:
Note the lil bloom appendage at 7 o'clock on the western side of the Convective burst.

"Spam,
spam,
spam,
spam,

It's da Spam, Spam, the WUnderful Spam'..









Wow!! Erica is a girl, just like NWS and NHC said all along!!!!
1859. Patrap
Is the LLC still on Haiti?
1862. FOREX
Quoting 1859. Patrap:


If Erika looked like this just West of Africa the blog would be going crazy.lol
1863. hydrus
1864. Patrap


Time Series of the Simplified Holland B parameter calculated from the TC Vitals

The simplified Holland B parameter [SHB, Knaff et al. (2010)] is a powerful TC structure diagnostic that is easily calculated from routinely available data. The SHB is related to the shape of the tangential wind profile beyond the radius of maximum wind (RMW), and is insensitive to variations of radius maximum winds. Large values of SHB (order 2.25) imply compact tangential wind profiles while, small values (<1.0) are related to broad tangential wind profiles. SHB also increase with both the intensity and radial extent of the wind field.

It is noteworthy that TCs that are weak have a generally large range of SHB, between 0.5 and 2.25, while very intense TCs have SHB values in a narrow range between 1.75 and 2.3.


More details of the sensitivity of SHB to TC structure are provided in Knaff et al. (2010). Here we have calculated SHB from the initial tropical cyclone conditions provided by NHC and JTWC (sometimes referred to as TC vitals or the TC bogus) as a function of time, indicated by the red line. The time series provides information on the structural evolution of the TC. The empirically derived lower and upper bounds of the SHB as a function of intensity are also provided by the thin black lines in the figure.
This will be a Cat One by Monday afternoon. Bet.
1867. miamivu
Looking very healthy to me...given its circumstances.
1868. Patrap
Sunrise later should be interesting with the low Sun angle on it there.


Can anyone post the most recent micro imagery loop or link it?

Want to see the overall motion
1870. FOREX
Quoting 1865. TokininTampa:

This will be a Cat One by Monday afternoon. Bet.
The experts keep insisting that although she is blossoming with convection, she has no strong circulation to keep her alive long term.
Before I head off to bed- I'd like to stress that if the scenario many of the models are showing verifies- with a slowing/stalling of a TS/TD over the SE US- it can be just as devastating as a hurricane. The drenching rains that would be drawn from both the GOM and the Atlantic are massive. This has happened before in the same area. Read up on 1994 TS Alberto to see what this can do. This is a potentially dangerous situation even if Erika is a weak system. If you live in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, or South Carolina stay vigilant because this scenario would be very bad-

looks like going to keep to the W
1873. Patrap


AMSU Area-Averaged Wind Shears and Layer Means

These products use the balanced 3-D wind field derived from the AMSU temperature retrievals to estimate the area averaged vertical wind shear and mass weighted deep-layer mean wind in two layers (200 to 850hPa and 500 to 850Hpa). For these calculations the area averaging is calculated in the area contained within 0 to 600km from the center of the cyclone. These are displayed for each AMSU retrieval time available. These may be useful for detecting rapid changes in the synoptic wind field. The reliability of the vertical wind shear estimates is documented in Zehr et al. (2008).

1874. FOREX
Quoting 1865. TokininTampa:

This will be a Cat One by Monday afternoon. Bet.
Bet. Chocolate milkshake from Sonic with hot fudge. Extra large.
1875. Droab92
Looking at this from viewpoint with a science background in medical field and saving lives and being cautious, but grew to love Hurricanes because of Andrew., and later the 04-05 season in south Fl.

1. With Jamaica only 200 plus miles away, and yes this a minimal TS, open wave, but definitely a rain maker, why no TS watches for the country? Who handles Jamaica issuance of watches?

2. With Cuba next, and deaths on Domenica, and probably to com on Hispanola. Why nothing on Cuba, I thought I remember reading that Cuba weather service handles their own advisories.

Quoting 1861. ElConando:

Is the LLC still on Haiti?
who knows? you could fly over it now at 13.000 ft  , throw a measuring instrument out the back of airplane and it would bounce off a mountain at 10,000 ft.
Quoting 1870. FOREX:

The experts keep insisting that although she is blossoming with convection, she has no strong circulation to keep her alive long term.


I hope those experts arent the ones that insisted in her trajectory.... Up to now even the forecast of the high mountains effect hasnt occured...
1878. Patrap
By my dead reckoning, I have it west at 18 mph at 275 true'

Note the speckled Lime blisters on the western edge and that ribbon around the outer edge too.


Quoting 1876. floridaT:


who knows? you could fly over it now at 13.000 ft  , throw a measuring instrument out the back of airplane and it would bounce off a mountain at 10,000 ft.



I'll go get my pile of money and do that.
Quoting 1874. FOREX:

Bet. Chocolate milkshake from Sonic with hot fudge. Extra large.


You got it :)
1881. FOREX
Quoting 1877. sunlinepr:



I hope those experts arent the ones that insisted in her trajectory.... Up to now even the forecast of the high mountains effect hasnt occured...
True dat.

Quoting 1870. FOREX:

The experts keep insisting that although she is blossoming with convection, she has no strong circulation to keep her alive long term.
but there is still very big blob

I just went on Pandora and a Jack Johnson song came on and the lyric "Hurricane" was said. Can't escape!
1884. MahFL
Quoting 1861. ElConando:

Is the LLC still on Haiti?


No, it is over water now, heading NW to Cuba.
Quoting 1857. sunlinepr:

Excuse me... Moving the forecast a little to the west...




This is scary! If it keeps moving a little "more" to the west, then Texas will be under the gun.
Last frame...She wants to kiss Jamaica... She likes Reggae... Marley...

1887. FOREX
Quoting 1872. sunlinepr:

looks like going to keep to the W
They need to cool it with the WNW already. It ain't happenin. Maybe in a few days, but not any time soon.
Quoting 1884. MahFL:



No, it is over water now, heading NW to Cuba.


I'd say 275-280, but eh.
1890. MahFL
Quoting 1870. FOREX:

The experts keep insisting that although she is blossoming with convection, she has no strong circulation to keep her alive long term.


Which experts do you refer to ?
Quoting 1871. SavannahStorm:
Before I head off to bed- I'd like to stress that if the scenario many of the models are showing verifies- with a slowing/stalling of a TS/TD over the SE US- it can be just as devastating as a hurricane. The drenching rains that would be drawn from both the GOM and the Atlantic are massive. This has happened before in the same area. Read up on 1994 TS Alberto to see what this can do. This is a potentially dangerous situation even if Erika is a weak system. If you live in Florida, Georgia, Alabama, or South Carolina stay vigilant because this scenario would be very bad-



That ship has sailed right with Erica, due west!!
Quoting 1885. pureet1948:



This is scary! If it keeps moving a little "more" to the west, then Texas will be under the gun.


Or she may end in the Yucatan Peninsula
1893. FOREX
Quoting 1886. sunlinepr:

Last frame...She wants to kiss Jamaica... She likes Reggae... Marley...


Where is WKC, that little Island to the West of Jamaica?

Quoting 1884. MahFL:



No, it is over water now, heading NW to Cuba.
their best guess it is

1895. Patrap
Quoting 1885. pureet1948:



This is scary! If it keeps moving a little "more" to the west, then Texas will be under the gun.


"SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic — A weakening Tropical Storm Erika drenched Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Friday after leaving a trail of destruction that killed at least 20 people and left another 31 missing on the small eastern Caribbean island of Dominica, authorities said.

Dominica Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit said in a televised address late Friday that the island has been set back 20 years in the damage inflicted by the storm, which dumped some 15 inches (38 centimeters) of rain on the mountainous island.

"The extent of the devastation is monumental. It is far worse than expected," he said, adding that hundreds of homes, bridges and roads have been destroyed. "We have, in essence, to rebuild Dominica."
1897. FOREX
Quoting 1890. MahFL:



Which experts do you refer to ?
Taz
1899. LBAR
Quoting 1891. LakeAlfredian:



That ship has sailed right with Erica, due west!!


We could really, really use some tropical rains here in South Carolina. Bone dry.
Quoting 1893. FOREX:

Where is WKC, that little Island to the West of Jamaica?


Cayman Islands
Is there a center of circulation and if so is it over land or back out over the water....I am in SE FL was out all night missed everything.... Are we good to go here!
1903. Patrap
Quoting 1903. Patrap:




It's pushing that dry air with some machismo
1905. sar2401
Quoting 1893. FOREX:

Where is WKC, that little Island to the West of Jamaica?
Yes. We'd better wake him up and let him know his dreams are about to come true...
1906. MahFL
Quoting 1902. oceanblues32:

Is there a center of circulation and if so is it over land or back out over the water....I am in SE FL was out all night missed everything.... Are we good to go here!


The coc just moved offshore of Haitii, heading wnw to nw towards Cuba.
1908. sar2401
Quoting 1902. oceanblues32:

Is there a center of circulation and if so is it over land or back out over the water....I am in SE FL was out all night missed everything.... Are we good to go here!
The center, such as it is, is over water. You'll have to look at the cone and decide about "good to go". It will change again in another hour.
1909. MahFL
Erika ejecting its tired ol' COC again...(?)...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imager y/bd_lalo-animated.gif

As the western edge of deep convection crosses 73w it almost looks like she makes an attempt to form an eyewall, but it only lasts a few frames.
Erica is unique... They are going to seriously Reforcast everything....

Trajectory
Translation movement
Expected intensity

1913. MahFL
Quoting 1910. Kowaliga:

Erika ejecting its tired ol' COC again...(?)...



The coc is not tired, it's vigorous and very much alive.
For me its moving W... Maybe my glasses need a new forecast

1916. sar2401
Quoting 1875. Droab92:

Looking at this from viewpoint with a science background in medical field and saving lives and being cautious, but grew to love Hurricanes because of Andrew., and later the 04-05 season in south Fl.

1. With Jamaica only 200 plus miles away, and yes this a minimal TS, open wave, but definitely a rain maker, why no TS watches for the country? Who handles Jamaica issuance of watches?

2. With Cuba next, and deaths on Domenica, and probably to com on Hispanola. Why nothing on Cuba, I thought I remember reading that Cuba weather service handles their own advisories.
Jamaica handles their own warnings. This is what they had to say before they apparently closed for the weekend.

Friday, August 28, 2015 – 11:00 a.m.

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT: WEEKEND RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA TO INFLUENCE JAMAICA …FLASH FLOODING A POSSIBILITY

The Meteorological Service has issued a Severe Weather Alert effective until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Erika is now located south-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and is moving toward the west-northwest. On its forecast track, the centre of Erika is expected to move well north of Jamaica by Saturday morning; however, rainfall associated with the storm is still expected to affect the island within the next 24-36 hours.

Projections are for showers and thunderstorms, which could be heavy at times, to affect Jamaica on Saturday into Sunday. There is a possibility of flash flooding in isolated cases.

Sea conditions mainly north and east of the island will deteriorate in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms due to gusty winds. Fishers and other marine interests should exercise caution.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.
kjg
Quoting 1895. Patrap:






I'd wait for the GFS/GFDL if I were you.
Quoting 1877. sunlinepr:

I hope those experts arent the ones that insisted in her trajectory.... Up to now even the forecast of the high mountains effect hasnt occured...


Quoting 1881. FOREX:
True dat.


Dem da sa gys dat gif da motel wong loco an vic tor to tart an den gif trak to da mets as gods pel.

1919. sar2401
Quoting 1885. pureet1948:



This is scary! If it keeps moving a little "more" to the west, then Texas will be under the gun.
Don't be scared. We'll help protect you.
Eventually shes going to meet the front over Yucatan and move NW... Dont know it it will dissipate

Ok, so I have a question. What is that near 21N 73W, looks like a very weak spin moving WNW in the low clouds up there? Well removed from convection and way north of the supposed CoC from the NHC.
1922. 7544
Quoting 1889. TokininTampa:




if shes keep going west the dry air will kill her off better go nw girl
Just did a blog update on the Atlantic tropics, as usual on the night shift....

Not only do we have Erika...but a tropical storm might develop just offshore of Africa and move into the Cape Verde Islands over the next 72 hours.
1924. sar2401
Quoting 1915. sunlinepr:

For me its moving W... Maybe my glasses need a new forecast


No, it's due west, in spite of the best efforts of the NHC staff to move it WNW...or maybe slightly west of north....possibly north of southwest....
Thank you she does not seem to be dissipating i knowg it will be a significant rain event....
Quoting 1908. sar2401:

The center, such as it is, is over water. You'll have to look at the cane and decide about "good to go". It will change again in another hour.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1927. FOREX
Quoting 1921. ecflweatherfan:

Ok, so I have a question. What is that near 21N 73W, looks like a very weak spin moving WNW in the low clouds up there? Well removed from convection and way north of the supposed CoC from the NHC.
looks like the coc. no wonder they can't find one in her now.
Quoting 1884. MahFL:

No, it is over water now, heading NW to Cuba.


Quoting 1894. floridaT:

their best guess it is



Comment #1884 went poof before Erica.....
Quoting 1927. FOREX:

looks like the coc. no wonder they can't find one in her now.


That would be one heck of a game-changer if that were so.
1930. sar2401
Quoting 1921. ecflweatherfan:

Ok, so I have a question. What is that near 21N 73W, looks like a very weak spin moving WNW in the low clouds up there? Well removed from convection and way north of the supposed CoC from the NHC.
The only things I see is broken pieces coming off Erika. I see no evidence of any kind of spin.
Quoting 1923. NCHurricane2009:

Just did a blog update on the Atlantic tropics, as usual on the night shift....

Not only do we have Erika...but a tropical storm might develop just offshore of Africa and move into the Cape Verde Islands over the next 72 hours.
Any Cape Verde Storm, that far north will likely go NW, and don't bother nobody, sometimes and very rarely could affect the Azores.. those are the real "Fish storms''...
Quoting 1899. LBAR:


We could really, really use some tropical rains here in South Carolina. Bone dry.


Oh...wishcasting...okay...I got it. Thanks!
1933. leo305
weather bug at inagua island ( south east Bahamas) reporting NE/NNE winds.....
Quoting 1912. sunlinepr:
Erica is unique... They are going to seriously Reforcast everything....

Trajectory
Translation movement
Expected intensity



Will at least her name stay the same????
Quoting 1916. sar2401:

Jamaica handles their own warnings. This is what they had to say before they apparently closed for the weekend.

Friday, August 28, 2015 – 11:00 a.m.

SEVERE WEATHER ALERT: WEEKEND RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA TO INFLUENCE JAMAICA …FLASH FLOODING A POSSIBILITY

The Meteorological Service has issued a Severe Weather Alert effective until 5:00 a.m. tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Erika is now located south-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and is moving toward the west-northwest. On its forecast track, the centre of Erika is expected to move well north of Jamaica by Saturday morning; however, rainfall associated with the storm is still expected to affect the island within the next 24-36 hours.

Projections are for showers and thunderstorms, which could be heavy at times, to affect Jamaica on Saturday into Sunday. There is a possibility of flash flooding in isolated cases.

Sea conditions mainly north and east of the island will deteriorate in the vicinity of showers and thunderstorms due to gusty winds. Fishers and other marine interests should exercise caution.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.
kjg


No this came at 4 pm but They rely on the NHC who still have made no mention of Erika affecting Jamaica just like Dominica was left out of the loop!!!
I truly feel bad for the many who will wake to rivers in the streets...


From: NMC Forecaster [mailto:nmcforecaster@metservice.gov.jm]
Sent: Friday, August 28, 2015 5:16 PM
Subject: National Meteorological Centre 4:00 p.m. Forecast




METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE, JAMAICA
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST kjg
August 28, 2015 at 4:00 p.m.
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Tropical Storm Erika south of the Dominican Republic.
Comment… A Severe Weather Alert is now in effect for Jamaica as rainfall associated with Tropical
Storm Erika is forecast to affect Jamaica on Saturday through to Sunday morning.
24-HOUR FORECAST
Tonight… Mainly fair.
Tomorrow… Cloudy with periods of showers and thunderstorms.
Forecast Region
TOMORROW'S FORECAST FOR SELECTED TOWNS AND CITIES
SOUTH EASTERN
MORANT BAY:
Showers/thunderstorms
KINGSTON:
Showers/thunderstorms
HALF WAY TREE:
Showers/thunderstorms
SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTMORE:
Showers/thunderstorms
SPANISH TOWN:
Showers/thunderstorms
MAY PEN:
Showers/thunderstorms
MANDEVILLE:
p.m. Thunderstorms
SOUTH WESTERN
SANTA CRUZ:
p.m. Showers
BLACK RIVER:
p.m. Showers
SAVANNA-LA-MAR:
p.m. Thunderstorms
NEGRIL:
p.m. Thunderstorms
NORTH EASTERN
PORT ANTONIO:
Showers/thunderstorms
PORT MARIA:
Showers/thunderstorms
NORTH CENTRAL
OCHO RIOS:
Showers/thunderstorms
ST. ANN'S BAY:
Showers/thunderstorms
BROWNS TOWN:
Showers/thunderstorms
FALMOUTH:
Showers/thunderstorms
NORTH WESTERN
MONTEGO BAY:
Showers/thunderstorms
LUCEA:
Showers/thunderstorms
Minimum temperature expected for Kingston tonight… 26 degrees Celsius.
Minimum temperature expected for Montego Bay tonight… 26 degrees Celsius.
MARINE FORECAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW
INSHORE ON THE NORTH COAST
Tonight: Wind… Easterly, 5 knots. Wave height… 0.5 metre.
Tomorrow: Wind… Northeasterly, 10 to 15 knots. Wave height…1.0 to 1.5 metres.
INSHORE ON THE SOUTH COAST
Tonight: Wind… Northerly, 5 knots. Wave height… 0.5 metre.
Tomorrow: Wind… Becoming Southeasterly, 20 knots. Wave height…2.0 metres.
OFFSHORE WINDS
Tonight… Easterly, 15 knots. Wave height… 1.5 metres.
Tomorrow… Easterly, 20 to 25 knots. Wave height… 2.0 to 2.5 metres.
Weather… Mainly fair tonight, showers/thunderstorms tomorrow.
MARINE WARNING MESSAGE
None at this time.
3-DAY FORECAST (after tomorrow)
Sun… Periods of showers and thunderstorms mainly across western parishes but mainly fair elsewhere.
Mon & Tues… Mainly sunny mornings. Isolated showers and thunderstorms mainly across western and
central parishes.
Regionally… At 4:00 p.m. the centre of Tropical Storm Erika was located 155 km west-southwest of
Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Quoting 1915. sunlinepr:
For me its moving W... Maybe my glasses need a new forecast



Keep glasses, get job at NWS/NHC as it's now obvious they could use your help......
The situation with Hurricane Jimena is extremely interesting in the light of Global Climate Change and the many unusual climatological/meteorological situations we will no doubt continue to observe - and on what appears to be a rapidly increasing basis.

As a fifth generation San Franciscan/Ft.Bragg Californian I can't imagine what my Gr-gr-grandparents would make of a tropical storm appearing off the coast where none has dare tread before - not to mention the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, the failure of the "normal" upwelling from the depths to produce the cold offshore currents, the presence of the bizarre hot spots, the wacky change in Pacific storm patterns - ad infinitum.

In my nightmarish dreams, I can't help but enter the science fiction like world my Gr-gr-grandchildren will likely face - that is if our species is still around to experience any of it. Pretty dark, I know, but not out of line given the situation.
Quoting 1933. leo305:

weather bug at inagua island ( south east Bahamas) reporting NE/NNE winds.....


Interesting.
Quoting 1938. biochick:

The situation with Hurricane Jimena is extremely interesting in the light of Global Climate Change and the many unusual climatological/meteorological situations we will no doubt continue to observe - and on what appears to be a rapidly increasing basis.

As a fifth generation San Franciscan/Ft.Bragg Californian I can't imagine what my Gr-gr-grandparents would make of a tropical storm appearing off the coast where none has dare tread before - not to mention the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, the failure of the "normal" upwelling from the depths to produce the cold offshore currents, the presence of the bizarre hot spots, the wacky change in Pacific storm patterns - ad infinitum.

In my nightmarish dreams, I can't help but enter the science fiction like world my Gr-gr-grandchildren will likely face - that is if our species is still around to experience any of it. Pretty dark, I know, but not out of line given the situation.
Quoting 1938. biochick:

The situation with Hurricane Jimena is extremely interesting in the light of Global Climate Change and the many unusual climatological/meteorological situations we will no doubt continue to observe - and on what appears to be a rapidly increasing basis.

As a fifth generation San Franciscan/Ft.Bragg Californian I can't imagine what my Gr-gr-grandparents would make of a tropical storm appearing off the coast where none has dare tread before - not to mention the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, the failure of the "normal" upwelling from the depths to produce the cold offshore currents, the presence of the bizarre hot spots, the wacky change in Pacific storm patterns - ad infinitum.

In my nightmarish dreams, I can't help but enter the science fiction like world my Gr-gr-grandchildren will likely face - that is if our species is still around to experience any of it. Pretty dark, I know, but not out of line given the situation.

Eh? Not sure what you mean, this hurricane certainly isn't unprecedented, we had many far stronger in 2014 and I don't see even with the rate of climate change occurring now any threat of a tropical system ever getting near Northern California. It's not occurring super fast as some may say and those kind of impacts are at least a thousand years away and only IF current rates continue.
1941. GPTGUY
img src="">
1942. GPTGUY
a href="" target="_blank">Link
1944. GPTGUY
1945. GPTGUY
.
1946. GPTGUY


Saturday, August 29, 2015 – 5:00 a.m.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND

The Meteorological Service has issued
• A Flash Flood Watch for low-lying and flood prone areas of all parishes.

• Effective until 5:00 p.m. Saturday.

• Projections are for showers and thunderstorms, which could be heavy at times, to affect Jamaica today into Sunday morning. Flash flooding is likely over some low-lying and flood-prone areas.

• The forecast is for unstable weather conditions to occur across all parishes especially northern and southeastern parishes during the next 24 hours.
1950. Times2
Masters mentioned models predicting a track through the heart of the GOM. I assume no one here believes that is possible. They are baffled! But obviously Erika is severely hampered at the moment.
1951. SLU