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Why Southeast Greenland's glaciers have slown down since 2005

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:57 PM GMT on December 15, 2009

I'm in San Francisco for the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union, the world's largest gathering of climate scientists. I saw ten or so great talks yesterday (and five really boring ones!) Here's a summary of the the most interesting talk I heard yesterday:

If you plan on owning ocean front property after the year 2050, you should pay close attention to the glaciers In Greenland. Greenland holds enough ice to raise global sea level by over 20 feet (6.5 meters), should its ice cap completely disintegrate--though such an event would likely take centuries to occur. Still, should the climate warm 2°C or more this century, partial melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet could readily raise global sea level by a meter or more by 2100. That's why scientists reacted with concern during 2003 - 2005, when all of the glaciers in southeastern Greenland accelerated in synchrony to speeds 30% to 210% faster than they had flowed in 1996. As they sped up, the glaciers began dumping huge amounts of ice into the ocean off the coast of southeast Greenland, more than doubling Greenland's contribution to global sea rise, to .57 mm/year. Would the glaciers keep accelerating, bringing about an increasing disintegration of the Greenland Ice Sheet? Nobody knew, since computer models of glacial dynamics were (and still are) in a primitive state.


Figure 1. Helheim Glacier in southeast Greenland, in three images captured in 2004, 2005, and 2006. The glacier accelerated significantly in 2005, and the face of the glacier retreated 5 km inland (middle frame) compared to 2004. However, by the summer of 2006, the acceleration ceased, the the glacier returned back to its 2004 position. Image credit: Ian Howat, University of Washington.

Well, it turned out that 2005 was the peak of the glacial acceleration event. The glaciers in southeast Greenland have returned to where they were eight or nine years ago--still causing a net loss of mass that is raising global sea level, but not as fast as in 2003 - 2005. In a talk titled, "Ocean regulation of glacier dynamics in south-east Greenland and implication for ice sheet mass changes", Tavi Murray and colleagues from the UK's Swansea University presented a plausible theory for why this strange synchronous speed-up and slow-down occurred. Using satellite, aircraft, and surface observations, the researchers found that air temperatures in the region did not vary much over 2003 - 2005 (Figure 2). Thus, a major increase in temperature could be ruled out as the cause of the glacier surge. However, study of the ocean temperatures near the coast revealed strong clues that ocean currents were responsible for the surge.

Figure 2. Ocean currents off the east coast of Greenland feature the cold East Greenland Coastal Current flowing north to south (white arrows) and the warm Irminger Current flowing south to north (red arrows). Image credit: Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

Ordinarily, the southeast coast of Greenland features a cold water current flowing north to south, called the East Greenland Coastal Current (EGCC). Much of the cold water for this current is supplied by melting of the 14 glaciers in southeast Greenland that empty into the sea (two of these glaciers, Kangerdlugssuaq and Helheim, represent 35% of east Greenland's total glacial discharge). A few hundred kilometers offshore, a warm water current called the Irminger Current flows the opposite direction, bringing warm water from the North Atlantic northward. In 2003, it happened that weather conditions over Greenland brought an unusually low amount of run-off of precipitation. With little new mass pushing the glaciers seaward, the glaciers responded by greatly reducing the amount of ice they dumped into the ocean by the shore. As a result, the East Greenland Coastal Current slowed down and warmed, which allowed the warm Irminger Current to advance towards the coast, warming the coastal waters even more. All that warm water near the coast began melting the glaciers where they reached the sea, causing the glaciers all along the southeast coast of Greenland to accelerate and rapidly thin between 2003 - 2005. By 2006, the thinning glaciers had dumped so much new ice into the ocean near the coast that the waters cooled and the East Greenland Coastal Current re-established itself. This cooled the glaciers at their marine termination points and slowed down the glacial surge, putting the glaciers back where they had been before 2003. This is a classic example of a negative feedback process--a change in weather conditions which generates a response, but the response creates conditions that tend to dampen the response.


Figure 3. Average temperatures for the only station in southeast Greenland with a century-long temperature record, Angmagssalik (called Ammassalik on the map in Figure 2). Temperatures in southeast Greenland during the 1930s and 1940s were similar to today's temperatures, suggesting that glacial surges like we witnessed in 2005 may have also occurred in the 1930s and 1940s, before we had monitoring capability. Image credit: NASA Goddard.

Commentary
As I commented in my previous post, Arctic sea ice loss appears to have created a new atmospheric circulation pattern that brings more warm air in the Arctic, creating a positive feedback loop that causes even more sea ice loss. This positive feedback loop was a bad news surprise that our climate models did not predict. Now we have evidence of a good news surprise that no model predicted--a negative feedback loop that acts to keep the southeast portion of Greenland's Ice Sheet from runaway glacial acceleration. We can expect many more surprises--good and bad--over the coming decades, as our climate responds to the huge shove human activities are giving it.

Ricky Rood in Copenhagen
Our Climate Change expert, Dr. Ricky Rood, is in Copenhagen for the COP15 climate change treaty negotiations. His latest post, called Have you no sense of decency, sir, at long last? makes for very interesting reading on how the U.S. is "wasting its intellect and time on disruptions designed to play to people at home".

Next post
I'll have another post from the AGU meeting Thursday or Friday this week.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Glaciers

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

now though 120 hrs
Flash Flood Watch now in effect for New Orleans, only like the 10th one this month
Quoting Grothar:


Care to share of what is shows?

bordonaro is showing u :)
Looks like the moderate EL NINO, Modiki style is going ti give many parts of the CONUS something to remember!

Link 18Z GFS model current through 12-22-09 below:

Link
It appears that the storm will pass directly over us on Friday afternoon, giving us pressures below 1000 mb for the first time since June 2007.
Quoting Bordonaro:
Looks like the moderate EL NINO, Modiki style is going ti give many parts of the CONUS something to remember!

Link 18Z GFS model current through 12-22-09 below:

Link


The El-Nino is still strenghtening as well. I believe it is supposed to peak in February.
hello all. and merry christmas to all.. just want to ask 1 ? that will prolly be asked a 100times, was lookin at some model output , what chance is there for snow here in central nc this weekend tyia greg
Quoting Jeff9641:


The El-Nino is still strenghtening as well. I believe it is supposed to peak in February.


This El Nino is warming the C PAC. So the Sub-Tropical Jet is being supercharged with warm, moist, tropical mositure, while Arctic intrusions still take place over Canada and the CONUS from time to time, producing prolific rain/snow producers around the counrty. Now with the NEG AO and NEG NAO, even more cold air is going to be dumped into the US, producing he possibilities for S Plains, SE US, Mid Atlantic, NE and New England Snowstorms!!!
wow here we go
Quoting pinehurstnc:
hello all. and merry christmas to all.. just want to ask 1 ? that will prolly be asked a 100times, was lookin at some model output , what chance is there for snow here in central nc this weekend tyia greg


Chance of snow is beginning to look real good and it could be a heavy wind driven snow. I honestly wouldn't be supprised if the piedmont gets dumped on by a foot of snow.
Quoting pinehurstnc:
hello all. and merry christmas to all.. just want to ask 1 ? that will prolly be asked a 100times, was lookin at some model output , what chance is there for snow here in central nc this weekend tyia greg


READ LINK :o) And enjoy your snowstorm!!!



Link
I envy you your snowfall...nothing quite like being snowed in (that is, as long as you have supplies)

Howdy, folks!
thanks u2 , i highly appreciate your taking time to answer,, i live about 60 miles south of greensboro,, we had the us open here in 2005. it is so pretty here when it snows,,just hope it is not an ice storm
You don't see that happen very often:

18z gfs back off on snow only showing it in dallas only a ich or less now what a difference it makes in 2 model runs
Quoting btwntx08:
18z gfs back off on snow only showing it in dallas only a ich or less now what a difference it makes in 2 model runs

For something as uncommon as snow in the "south", I would not pay much attention to any model more than 5 days out. Also, the 18z GFS is the least accurate of all the model runs. 0z and 12z are usually the most accurate, as they have the most recent sounding information added in. 06z' uses data that is at least 6 hours old, and 18z uses data that is anywhere from 6-18hr old.
Quoting jeffs713:

For something as uncommon as snow in the "south", I would not pay much attention to any model more than 5 days out. Also, the 18z GFS is the least accurate of all the model runs. 0z and 12z are usually the most accurate, as they have the most recent sounding information added in. 06z' uses data that is at least 6 hours old, and 18z uses data that is anywhere from 6-18hr old.

i agree the 00z and 12z are the best :)
bbl all
The Gulf Stream off the east coast of the US and the Pacific current off Japan are developing many warm and cool eddies. Several bays and partially enclosed water features in the subarctic have warmed in the past few days, some past 20C. Off Greenland, Iceland, and Spitsbergen water temperatures are warming as well, and there is an area offshore near the mouth of the river harbour that separates Buenos Aires and Uruguay where very warm water is directly colliding with very cool water.
1020. jipmg
Nogaps bringing some really cold air ino Florida.. and keeping it there for the remainder of the upcoming week with a potential colder blast..

CMC brings cold air, but then backs it off slowly from Florida, but remains below average.
Hello, everybody! I want to wish everyone an early Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays!

It's still VERY early, but here is an early look at the

SPECIAL Graphics Update:
2010 Hurricane Season Names
this is so interesting - so negative feedback systems could save us after all! So in 2005, the most active hurricane season, warm waters moved further up. That's quite interesting.
Quoting AllStar17:
Hello, everybody! I want to wish everyone an early Merry Christmas!

It's still VERY early, but here is an early look at the

SPECIAL Graphics Update:
2010 Hurricane Season Names


Shouldnt it be the 2004 names retired? Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne?
Quoting weatherman874:


Shouldnt it be the 2004 names retired? Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne?


It is that graphic is wrong.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
The Gulf Stream off the east coast of the US and the Pacific current off Japan are developing many warm and cool eddies. Several bays and partially enclosed water features in the subarctic have warmed in the past few days, some past 20C. Off Greenland, Iceland, and Spitsbergen water temperatures are warming as well, and there is an area offshore near the mouth of the river harbour that separates Buenos Aires and Uruguay where very warm water is directly colliding with very cool water.


I enjoy reading your entries, as they are very detailed and very intersting,

Do you have any links you could share with me, so I can see the raw details!
Ice melt, ice melt. Oh how it will submerge the city in which I live. :(

P.S. Please join us in Weather Chat! Thank you!
Quoting charlottefl:


It is that graphic is wrong.


fixed now....sorry about the error
Quoting Jeff9641:


Chance of snow is beginning to look real good and it could be a heavy wind driven snow. I honestly wouldn't be supprised if the piedmont gets dumped on by a foot of snow.


I am here in Raleigh, and its about time it REALLY SNOWED! Woohooo.

Is there a model output showing expected snowfall totals?
The gulf around the Yucatan is really winding up. I think Tampa Bay is going to get rocked tomorrow night or Friday morning along with N-Central to S. Fl..We maybe looking more like New Orleans this time.IMO
1030. Drakoen
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I am here in Raleigh, and its about time it REALLY SNOWED! Woohooo.

Is there a model output showing expected snowfall totals?



Winter Storm Watch

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
507 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...SIGNIFICANT SNOW POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

.A COASTAL STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY SNOWFALL...WITH
PERIODS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STORM
TOTAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TO 1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS ADJACENT
TO THE EAST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501>507-509-170900-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WS.A.0008.091218T1100Z-091219T2300Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE...ASHEVILLE...
HENDERSONVILLE...LENOIR...MORGANTON...MARION...LAKE LURE
507 PM EST WED DEC 16 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

LIGHT SNOW...WITH PERIODS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WILL
SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS ON FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIPITATION RATES
WILL INCREASE AS DEEP LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW SWEEPS
OVER THE REGION. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEPART ON
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION
RATES. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FRIDAY EVENING AND WILL LIKELY
REMAIN NEAR FREEZING THROUGH MID DAY SATURDAY.

BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS TO
1 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS ADJACENT TO THE EAST FACING
MOUNTAIN SLOPES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

NED

Awww, will maybe so much snow won't happen in Raleigh. It looks like its going to dump all the snow west of the piedmont and be concentrated in the foothills (maybe a little snow mixing with rain here).
Quoting Drakoen:





Thanks for the map, looks like we're on the fence out here (really sharp edge between 1 to 6 inches). I've seen these type of events before. If I remember right, one time here we got 22 inches of snow in January 2000 (the most ever in Raleigh), and everywhere else around us got a lot less. Then there was one storm not longer after that where Raleigh was expecting 18 inches in the forecast. Instead, the forecast was a total failure, and Raleigh got zero while literally 1 or 2 counties just to our east got a foot!
Quoting Drakoen:
It seems as though the ECMWF and GFS have trended back westward with the coastal storm bring snow to portions of South Carolina, North Carolina and Virgina with the activity primarily south of the Mason-Dixon Line.

Hey, lil' ol' us is south of the Mason-Dixon line! Try telling that to a Texas cop, though. :(
1034. Drakoen
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Hey, lil' ol' us is south of the Mason-Dixon line! Try telling that to a Texas cop, though. :(


Yea. With the teleconnections and the positive height anomalies I think the storm will come further west than the GFS and ECMWF and give several Mid-Atlantic states snow but time will tell.
1035. amd
Drak, good snowfall map from the 12Z GFS.

The 18Z GFS model output for the possible east coast storm just updated the snow fall totals. It is becoming a much better storm for the big cities.

Quoting Drakoen:


Yea. With the teleconnections and the positive height anomalies I think the storm will come further west than the GFS and ECMWF and give several Mid-Atlantic states snow but time will tell.


I tihnk it's great where it is right now, and actually may be a bit too far west.
1038. Drakoen
Quoting amd:
Drak, good snowfall map from the 12Z GFS.

The 18Z output for the possible east coast storm just updated the snow fall totals. It is becoming a much better storm for the big cities.



As of now, I don't think the storm will come enough west to have a major impact on New England and Long Island because of the jet stream but we will see.

Good evening everyone, just waiting for the next computer model updates for the upcoming snow event for the portions of the Carolina's, the Mid Atlantic, portions of the NE and New England.

I understand that the 00, 06 and 12Z GFS runs are more reliable! I hear the 18Z run uses data that is about 12 hrs old! Ridiculous to use a super-computer to download a bunch of antique information, then call it a forecast! Come on NWS, you're better than THAT!!

I hope the E Coast has a white and snowy Fr-Su. Maybe the rest of us S Plains and SE US folks will get a shot of snow next week. We'll take whatever we can get!

1040. amd
Quoting Drakoen:


As of now, I don't think the storm will come enough west to have a major impact on New England and Long Island because of the jet stream but we will see.



from that jet stream picture (12Z GFS model, 96 hours out), it seems clear that the storm would have minor impacts at best on new england and long island.

However, from the latest gfs picture (18Z GFS model, 90 hours out), the NW part of the jet stream is starting to move more to the NW. Granted it is a small move (about 100 miles or so), but it may be enough to cause a substantial increase in snow for some of the big cities, as shown in the 18Z GFS.

The key to any snow in the big cities is the placement of the 1126 heights signature in eastern canada. Further to the se, the jet storm kinks more to the north, the surface low is much stronger, and we have a major east coast storm. If the 1126 heights signature stays where it is placed on the 12Z GFS, then yes, there will be very minor affects for just about everyone north of 40N.

In any case, I don't expect a final solution to be evident for those from Raleigh to Boston until mid day friday.

1041. Drakoen
ECMWF 12z Jet Stream:

This makes the third weekend in a row that winter precip has been prdicted for Greensboro. The last two we got nothing. I hope three times a charm!!
How deep do you think the low will get over N Florida/S Georgia, Drak?

We haven't had a pressure below 1000 mb here since June 2007 with Barry.
Hey Drak, why is there such a sharp edge on the snow cover map? im forecasted to get 5 inches, but 20 miles west 14 in?
snow accumulations frequently cut off very quickly over small distances because of subtle variations in temperature, moisture, and amount of moisture in the "dendridic growth zone" (between -15C and -20C) which makes snow fluffiest.
1046. bappit
Has anyone commented on the "slown down" title of Masters' blog post?
Quoting bappit:
Has anyone commented on the "slown down" title of Masters' blog post?


what about it?
1048. bappit
Just wondering.
1049. Drakoen
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
How deep do you think the low will get over N Florida/S Georgia, Drak?

We haven't had a pressure below 1000 mb here since June 2007 with Barry.


Around 1000mb

Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Hey Drak, why is there such a sharp edge on the snow cover map? im forecasted to get 5 inches, but 20 miles west 14 in?


What St. Simmons said.
1050. xcool






Quoting xcool:








is this christmas?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


is this christmas?

The 28th
Quoting alaina1085:

The 28th
\

xcool, any chance you can post that map for tuesday?
1054. xcool
VAbeachhurricanes what date ;) ??
xcool,

thats looking nice, earlier it had snow only down to Arkansas
1056. xcool
thank
Quoting xcool:
VAbeachhurricanes what date ;) ??


umm the 22nd plz :)
1058. xcool
ok hold plz
Quoting Bordonaro:


I enjoy reading your entries, as they are very detailed and very intersting,

Do you have any links you could share with me, so I can see the raw details!


It's all on the Weather Underground SST map, and a larger version is accessible through Flash Tracker for tropical cyclones. Also, here's another site for current SSTs and anomalies, that I included in a post on a previous blog entry: Link
Quoting xcool:
ok hold plz

Do you have any maps that focus on the Great Lakes region, say for around Christmas?
1061. xcool
1063. Drakoen
Nice snow north of the Tennessee River Valley and south of the Mason-Dixon Line.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


It's all on the Weather Underground SST map, and a larger version is accessible through Flash Tracker for tropical cyclones. Also, here's another site for current SSTs and anomalies, that I included in a post on a previous blog entry: Link


I find the Wunderground SST map and the RTG (in your link) to be overly smoothed and have a lot of latency (age of measurement).

Otherwise, neat link!

I like the higher resolution SST sources, like this one: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport/modis/sst_comparison.html


(reduced, click for full size)


This is one of my favorites, anyway...(very few have global coverage in a single plot)
1065. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:


I find the Wunderground SST map and the RTG (in your link) to be overly smoothed and have a lot of latency (age of measurement).

Otherwise, neat link!

I like the higher resolution SST sources, like this one: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport/modis/sst_comparison.html


(reduced, click for full size)

This is one of my favorites, anyway...(very few have global coverage in a single plot)


Hey atmoaggie, see that stream of real warm water right by the SE tip of Florida, well that's where I live. :P Always great weather.
1062: Detailing why you think what you do would have been a far better post. You just ruined any positive perceptions anyone, including fence-sitters, may have had about those of us that question the science and conclusions of AGW proponents.

Check your shoes.

You have made yourself look like an ideological fool, nothing more, and I know you know better.
according to that last snowfall map...ill wake up sunday to 12-16 inches of snow just 20 miles to the southeast of richmond...while i love a good snowstorm or 2 every year...ill see that when pigs fly...im betting on a dusting up to 4 inches...and thats pushing it...
1068. Drakoen
The NAM 00z shows phasing earlier allowing the system to come up closer to the coast with a negatively titled 500mb trough axis. The deformation axis extends outwards toward Kentucky with a more moist solution.
1069. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:
1062: Detailing why you think what you do would have been a far better post. You just ruined any positive perceptions anyone, including fence-sitters, may have had about those of us that question the science and conclusions of AGW proponents.

Check your shoes.

You have made yourself look like an ideological fool, nothing more, and I know you know better.


Now you know why I respect you as do other!
Quoting Grothar:


Hey atmoaggie, see that stream of real warm water right by the SE tip of Florida, well that's where I live. :P Always great weather.


Hawk, come back on now.
I try to stay away from the whole GW debate and have stayed off this blog for almost two years.

you know....screw that!

You have to be pretty arrogant to think you can prove what is going on. That is all.
Atmo and Drak are you guys still online?
Christmas Light display from Lynn Creek Park at Joe Pool Lake, TX. Taken last night with our "pleasant Family outing"!


Any new model runs out showing S Plains/SE US snow for next week?? How's the E Coast Snowstorm shaping up?

Are we still seeing/hoping/praying/voodoo worship/bribing the GW guys and/or guesstimating snow for Florida and the pan handle :)
Quoting atmoaggie:
1062: Detailing why you think what you do would have been a far better post. You just ruined any positive perceptions anyone, including fence-sitters, may have had about those of us that question the science and conclusions of AGW proponents.

Check your shoes.

You have made yourself look like an ideological fool, nothing more, and I know you know better.


You always say things just the right way! It's been a while, but I wanted to ask a favor in advance. I decided to sign up for Met classes this coming semester and may need some help understanding a few things from time to time from all my super knowledgable friends on WU. Might you be available to help at all?
1076. Drakoen
Quoting CatastrophicDL:
Atmo and Drak are you guys still online?


Yes...
Quoting Orcasystems:
Are we still seeing/hoping/praying/voodoo worship/bribing the GW guys and/or guesstimating snow for Florida and the pan handle :)

Orca, OMGosh your halo is so shiny!
Quoting Drakoen:


Yes...

Hey Drak, it's been a while! I signed up for Met classes this semester. If there is something I don't understand can I maybe shoot you an email for some help?
Looks like Laurence came in as a Cat 3.
Good news. I guess!
1080. Drakoen
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Hey Drak, it's been a while! I signed up for Met classes this semester. If there is something I don't understand can I maybe shoot you an email for some help?


Sure thing!
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Orca, OMGosh your halo is so shiny!


I am impressed, I have not even had to shine it this year.... I have been the poster boy for S&I.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am impressed, I have not even had to shine it this year.... I have been the poster boy for S&I.

There hasn't been much happening to stress people out this year. I haven't been on much since I decided to go back to school. I've missed you guys! I actually got my homework done before 10:30 tonight so I thought I'd say hi!
00Z NAM 12-20-09 @72HRS, 850 MB Temps and 6 HR precip model. Notice a secondary L developing near GA/SC line?

Quoting CatastrophicDL:

There hasn't been much happening to stress people out this year. I haven't been on much since I decided to go back to school. I've missed you guys! I actually got my homework done before 10:30 tonight so I thought I'd say hi!


True, I do miss seeing people loose it, and now that its so quite.. I miss JFV

Not to mention... with all this GW chat... I have a massive Iggy list.. a new record
no offense to any one,, i came here in 2005,, just to chat and learn about all WEATHER,, i have a basic back ground in met,, one thing , i know , i am only human,, therefore,, i cannot control it,, weather will come,, and yet , it shall pass,, , ,so get along, its only something ,we have not yet, mastered
1086. spathy
Chicklit
Any rainfall est. For Laurence?
I cant seem to find any.
1087. Drakoen
Bordonaro, could you change the dimensions of you image in the length so it's not so narrow....
Quoting Orcasystems:


True, I do miss seeing people loose it, and now that its so quite.. I miss JFV

Where'd he go? The drama during hurricane season is something that always drives me to carbs!
1089. chawk
The Copenhagen event is showing the whole world a poor committment to addressing climate change. If the organizers and attendees were dedicated to the cause there would not be thousands of limos and private jets ferrying people including hollywood to and from the event. It would be held online. Al would not have to exagerate a respected scientist data to dramatize the effects of AGW to the point that all polar ice will be gone in 5-7years. The AGW beleivers would be much more effective if they would set a better example and get out of politics. Your only as good as the company you keep.
anyone else sick of the GW debate and how its standing in the way of science. Seriously, this has set discoveries back another twenty years. I wish the good old doc would lay off and put some real weather info up. Like it or not...its not up to us right now, and its time to get back to science (not lobbying)
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

Where'd he go? The drama during hurricane season is something that always drives me to carbs!


They ran him off again.. all 3 of him
Quoting pinehurstnc:
no offense to any one,, i came here in 2005,, just to chat and learn about all WEATHER,, i have a basic back ground in met,, one thing , i know , i am only human,, therefore,, i cannot control it,, weather will come,, and yet , it shall pass,, , ,so get along, its only something ,we have not yet, mastered


FIVE POINTS for that comment!!
Quoting Drakoen:
Bordonaro, could you change the dimensions of you image in the length so it's not so narrow....


It was put in as 1280 x 1024 when I put it in! I'll try 1400 x 1200, I do not think it will look right.
1094. Drakoen
Quoting Bordonaro:


It was put in as 1280 x 1024 when I put it in! I'll try 1400 x 1200, I do not think it will look right.


You could just leave it unmodified...
Quoting Orcasystems:


They ran him off again.. all 3 of him

ROFL! You know while I understand and feel it is only logical that humans somehow impact the weather patterns of the earth, all this arguing makes me think of the evolution/creation argument. I'm thinking that when scientists can make primordial sludge evolve into a human then I'll be on board. In every case, I don't feel science has proved it's point.
1096. Grothar
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am impressed, I have not even had to shine it this year.... I have been the poster boy for S&I.


That's Ok Orca, I trip over mine at least twice a day. It's annoying isn't it?
Quoting Orcasystems:


They ran him off again.. all 3 of him
.

Quoting Drakoen:


Around 1000mb



What St. Simmons said.


Wow Drakoen agreed with me completely! That's cool!
Quoting Drakoen:


You could just leave it unmodified...


I put it in as unmodified. You can also right click on the image, right click properties, copy the URL, post that in your browser, and the full image will come up! I do it all the time to make the images their original size..
Quoting Grothar:


That's Ok Orca, I trip over mine at least twice a day. It's annoying isn't it?


Quoting Grothar:


That's Ok Orca, I trip over mine at least twice a day. It's annoying isn't it?


Mine doesn't fall very far.. the horns hold it up :)
And tell me, which one is really AIM? :)

Quoting CatastrophicDL:


You always say things just the right way! It's been a while, but I wanted to ask a favor in advance. I decided to sign up for Met classes this coming semester and may need some help understanding a few things from time to time from all my super knowledgable friends on WU. Might you be available to help at all?

Of course! (you felt the need to ask?)

One of my favorite subjects...
;-)
Quoting PcolaDan:
And tell me, which one is really AIM? :)



LOL
Quoting pinehurstnc:
no offense to any one,, i came here in 2005,, just to chat and learn about all WEATHER,, i have a basic back ground in met,, one thing , i know , i am only human,, therefore,, i cannot control it,, weather will come,, and yet , it shall pass,, , ,so get along, its only something ,we have not yet, mastered


Try this link for weather updates for NC. Allan Hoffman is a meteorologist, out of Raliegh, NC, he has 10 yrs local experience and focuses on weather events in NC and around the US, below is the link! Be Blessed my friend!!

Link
1106. Grothar
Quoting PcolaDan:




This is getting scary. I just KNEW you had one hidden somewhere and were going to post it.
There just isn't any valid reason to come into Dr M's blog and bash him...bash the data behind the message, bash the conclusions (preferably with a good discussion of the reasons you do so), but to bash the messenger, that really does believe in what he says, right or wrong, is not acceptable.

Most visitors here probably do not visit because they think him a joke.
Quoting Bordonaro:


Try this link for weather updates for NC. Allan Hoffman is a meteorologist, out of Raliegh, NC, he has 10 yrs local experience and focuses on weather events in NC and around the US, below is the link! Be Blessed my friend!!

Link


Go look at post 386 on my Blog.. it would appear the Carols need all the help they can get :)

P.S. remember its in the Jokes section
1109. Grothar
Quoting Orcasystems:


Mine doesn't fall very far.. the horns hold it up :)


Them there better be Viking horns you be talking about!!!!! LOL
Quoting Grothar:


This is getting scary. I just KNEW you had one hidden somewhere and were going to post it.


I ignored it.. my Halo was in danger :)
Quoting Grothar:


Them there better be Viking horns you be talking about!!!!! LOL

Viking don't have horns. I was educated on that a day or so ago. Not sure whom it was that blessed us with that knowledge.
(And the Minnesota NFL team apparently has it wrong)
lol great minds think alike orca,pcola? =P
Quoting xcool:


thanks x :) looks wonderful!
Quoting Grothar:


This is getting scary. I just KNEW you had one hidden somewhere and were going to post it.


Timing is everything. lol
Quoting Orcasystems:


Go look at post 386 on my Blog.. it would appear the Carols need all the help they can get :)

P.S. remember its in the Jokes section


That was cute! It's too bad she is not very intelligent!!
Quoting atmoaggie:

Viking don't have horns. I was educated on that a day or so ago. Not sure whom it was that blessed us with that knowledge.
(And the Minnesota NFL team apparently has it wrong)


We warned you about this earlier... its all that thinking that gives you the headaches
1117. Grothar
Quoting atmoaggie:

Viking don't have horns. I was educated on that a day or so ago. Not sure whom it was that blessed us with that knowledge.
(And the Minnesota NFL team apparently has it wrong)


Gee, I wonder who could have given you that information. That Minnesota blog was funny. I really got a good laugh at that. But by the way, did you ever look up the Viking horn thing?
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Wow Drakoen agreed with me completely! That's cool!


hahaha, thanks for the answer simons :)
GFS will update by 0430Z for their 00UTC run
Model: GFS Created By: NCEP Daily Updates: 4 Update times: 03:30-04:45 | 09:30-10:45 | 15:30-16:45 | 21:30-22:45 (GMT)
Quoting Orcasystems:


I ignored it.. my Halo was in danger :)


Now we have evidence of a good news surprise that no model predicted--a negative feedback loop that acts to keep the southeast portion of Greenland's Ice Sheet from runaway glacial acceleration. We can expect many more surprises--good and bad--over the coming decades, as our climate responds to the huge shove human activities are giving it.

Nothing extraordinary there...The earth has ALWAYS found ways to counterbalance the imbalances in nature....Newton's 3rd law of motion...The fact this circulation took the climate models off guard, shows/proves they are insufficient enough to grasp such processes, thus making the confidence level of climate models MUCH lower than the AGW crowd makes them out to be...But of course, melting ice caps dont prove man did it..It only proves that certain variables are making ice melt in certain ways....
1122. Grothar
Quoting PcolaDan:


Timing is everything. lol


But you do them so fast and so appropriately!!!
That, I am sorry to say, IS impressive.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Viking don't have horns. I was educated on that a day or so ago. Not sure whom it was that blessed us with that knowledge.
(And the Minnesota NFL team apparently has it wrong)

The Druids used horn helmets and worshiped animalistic type diety.
Quoting quasigeostropic:
Now we have evidence of a good news surprise that no model predicted--a negative feedback loop that acts to keep the southeast portion of Greenland's Ice Sheet from runaway glacial acceleration. We can expect many more surprises--good and bad--over the coming decades, as our climate responds to the huge shove human activities are giving it.

Nothing extraordinary there...The earth has ALWAYS found ways to counterbalance the imbalances in nature....Newton's 3rd law of motion...The fact this circulation took the climate models off guard, shows/proves they are insufficient enough to grasp such processes, thus making the confidence level of climate models MUCH lower than the AGW crowd makes them out to be...But of course, melting ice caps dont prove man did it..It only proves that certain variables are making ice melt in certain ways....

+1
Quoting Grothar:


But you do them so fast and so appropriately!!!
That, I am sorry to say, IS impressive.


LOL Well, I'm easily amused. It's all Orca's fault anyway.

add edit:It's also an exercise for my short term memory. "Where did I see that thing???"
00Z 12-17-09 GFS Run Update has started!!
1127. Grothar
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

The Druids used horn helmets and worshiped animalistic type diety.


What may I ask to the Druids have to do with Vikings?
Quoting Grothar:


What may I ask to the Druids have to do with Vikings?

The horn helmets
Quoting Orcasystems:


Mine doesn't fall very far.. the horns hold it up :)


For those that haven't seen one the nose of the devil is just to the right of the Queen's ear. Then take it from there.




1130. chawk
I truly miss Dr Masters current weather discussions, They are why I logged on to this site years ago and always looked forward to his view of what we could expect here in Florida. I do not know half of what most of you know about meteorology, but I do know the difference between a scientist and a politician. Hopefully, good ole mother nature will put this AGW conflict to rest either way soon.
I know you guys all like sports...
sad news
Bengals WR in Critical Condition


Canadian Devil's Head $2 Note~ Close-Up
Quoting Bordonaro:
00Z 12-17-09 GFS Run Update has started!!



i know youve done it a billion times, but can you link it :)
yall are just to kind,, to answer , an almost wannabe met, btw ,, greg fishel.. is downplaying this event .like it will never happen,, and he is the biggest snowking in nc
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



i know youve done it a billion times, but can you link it :)


The link is below, it will take about 1 hr before the complete run is ready!! They're on
42 HRS right now!
Link
But does the devil wear Prada?
1137. xcool
VAbeachhurricanes anytime!
1138. Grothar
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

The horn helmets


The Vikings did not wear horns on their helmets and neither did the Druids. There are pictures of modern times showing Vikings with helmets, but there is nothing in history to suggest they did. Having been raised in Scandinavia and taught history there, I know that much. The Druids wore certain fox and birds parts on their helmets and perhaps some may even used elk horn, which was for specific rituals of the pre-Christian era. Actually very little is know of the early Druids, since Rome erased most traces of them.
1102. Dan -- that's easy; they both are!
Sun Sign: Gemini
But not quite like "I Dream of Jeannie", Master! Blink Blink.
Quoting pinehurstnc:
yall are just to kind,, to answer , an almost wannabe met, btw ,, greg fishel.. is downplaying this event .like it will never happen,, and he is the biggest snowking in nc


The link below goes to a local meteorologist Allan Huffman. He is an ACTUAL meteorologist, w/10 years experience, check out this link :0)

Link
1141. Grothar
From Wiki:

Helmet

Helmet from chieftain's grave, 10th cent. NorwayToday there is only one known example of a Viking helmet in existence.[1] This Viking helmet was made of iron and was in the shape of a rounded or peaked cap made from four plates after the spangenhelm pattern, and was excavated from Gjermundbu, Norway, and dated to the 10th century. Gjermundbu is located in Haugsbygda, a village in Ringerike municipality, northeast of the center of Hønefoss, in Buskerud, Norway. This helmet has a rounded cap and has a "spectacle" guard around the eyes and nose, in addition to a possible mail aventail. The eyeguard in particular suggests a close affinity with the earlier Vendel period helmets. From runestones and other illustrations, we know the Vikings also wore simpler helmets, often peaked caps with a simple noseguard. It is unlikely that any Viking helmets had horns or wings mounted on them, but illustrations from the 19th Century popularized this representation.[2]
[edit] Mail
Once again, only a single fragmented but possibly complete mail shirt has been excavated in Scandinavia, from the same site as the helmet - Gjermundbu in Haugsbygda. Scandinavian Viking age burial customs seems to not favour burial with helmet or mail armour, in contrast to earlier extensive armour burials in Swedish Valsgärde. The mail shirt is currently interpreted as elbow-and-knee length. Probably worn over thick clothing, a mail shirt protects the wearer from being cut, but offers little protection from blunt trauma. Mail was very expensive in early medieval Europe, and would likely have been worn by men of status and wealth. It was almost certainly the "four-in-one" type, where four solid (punched) rings are connected by a single riveted ring. Mail armour of this type may also be known as a byrnie or brynja.

1142. Grothar
Did Vikings Wear Horned Helmets?
By Robert Wilde, About.com Guide
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Viking Helmet
Find it here. Great Resources About Viking Helmet
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The Myth
Viking warriors wore horned or winged helmets.
The Truth
There is no evidence, archaeological or otherwise, that Viking warriors wore any type of horns or wings on their helmets. What we do have is one single piece of evidence, the ninth century Oseberg tapestry, suggesting a rare ceremonial use (the relevant figure on the tapestry may even be that of a god, rather than representative of real Vikings) and plenty of evidence for plain conical/domed helmets made mainly of leather.

Horns, Wings and Wagner
I’m sure we’ve all seem them, pictures of large, hairy men with horns sticking proudly out of their helmets as they rush to rape and pillage. It’s so common it must be true surely? Well, no. Years of excavations, coupled with studies of images, have yielded no evidence for the common use of horned or winged Viking warrior helmets. So where has the idea come from? Roman and Greek writers referred to northerners who wore horns, wings and antlers, amongst other things, on their helmets. Like much contemporary writing about anyone non-Greek or Roman there appears to have already been a distortion here, with archaeology suggesting that while this horned headgear did exist, it was largely for ceremonial purposes and had largely faded out by the time of the Vikings, often considered to have started in the late eight century. This was unknown to the writers and artists of the early modern era, who began referencing the ancient authors, making misinformed jumps and depicting Viking warriors, en masse, with horns. This image grew in popularity until it was taken on by other forms of art and passed into common knowledge. The temporary mis-identification of a Bronze Age carving in Sweden with a horned helmet as Viking didn’t help matters, although this was corrected in 1874.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
But does the devil wear Prada?


Probably so after he got kicked out of Georgia.



WOW that would be amazing... im lovin this run!
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
But does the devil wear Prada?

Oh, dunno', personally, I prefer Chanel.
---------------------------------------

I have looked and looked, and I swear I can't see the devil in the details of that Canadian note. Either my soul is too pure...or you have to be Canadian. Is Orca still here?

What did Grothar trip over? Hooves or tail?

Oh, snow this weekend! Hell (aka DC) IS freezing over!
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
1102. Dan -- that's easy; they both are!
Sun Sign: Gemini
But not quite like "I Dream of Jeannie", Master! Blink Blink.


LOL Now I know what I liked about you! How the two of you doing, both of us here are just great. :)
1147. Drakoen
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


WOW that would be amazing... im lovin this run!


That would give you guys some heavy snow accumulations.
Quoting Grothar:


The Vikings did not wear horns on their helmets and neither did the Druids. There are pictures of modern times showing Vikings with helmets, but there is nothing in history to suggest they did. Having been raised in Scandinavia and taught history there, I know that much. The Druids wore certain fox and birds parts on their helmets and perhaps some may even used elk horn, which was for specific rituals of the pre-Christian era. Actually very little is know of the early Druids, since Rome erased most traces of them.

I wasn't saying the viking wore horns, I was making a statement about where perhaps the idea may have come from. I agree the history about the Druids is very weak. My history professor from France who was educated at the Sorbonne and specializes in Frankish history said from what is known about the Druids, they most likely did wear hoods or helmets with animal parts on them. Anyway just something someone else brought up.
Drak basically nailed this run 6 hours ago!
1150. Drakoen
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Drak basically nailed this run 6 hours ago!


:)
off topic,, sorry,, mama brought neckbone stew, dad had okra and lima beans,, i had rasin bran and lousiana hot sauce,, its in a pot, cookin for the snow storm
1152. Drakoen
The NAM shows a thick band of snow south of the Mason-Dixon line into Virgina and Maryland before the system exits:

Did you guys see this about the sea bridge? It can withstand some pretty good winds, but how quickly would storm surge destroy it? Link
Quoting PcolaDan:


LOL Now I know what I liked about you! How the two of you doing, both of us here are just great. :)

Oh for Pete's sakes. The four of us should get together sometime over angelfood & devilsfood cakes and coffee!
Hmmm some wild snow accumulations in NC maybe like this?

1156. Drakoen
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hmmm some wild snow accumulations in NC maybe like this?



Definitely possible especially in the western zones.
Quoting Drakoen:
The NAM shows a thick band of snow south of the Mason-Dixon line into Virgina and Maryland before the system exits:



Here is the latest loop 00Z, -0-HRS-108 HRS GFS, 2M Temps, 10M Winds (SURFACE LEVEL) Java Loop..

Link
1158. Grothar
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

I wasn't saying the viking wore horns, I was making a statement about where perhaps the idea may have come from. I agree the history about the Druids is very weak. My history professor from France who was educated at the Sorbonne and specializes in Frankish history said from what is known about the Druids, they most likely did wear hoods or helmets with animal parts on them. Anyway just something someone else brought up.


No problem, it is a running joke with a few of us on here. Did you go to La Sorbonne? I lived on the Quai de La Tournelle when I studied there.
Quoting Drakoen:
The NAM shows a thick band of snow south of the Mason-Dixon line into Virgina and Maryland before the system exits:



drak how confident should we be in these model runs? 0z are the most reliable right?
1160. DanM6
While I do not find Dr. Master's analysis beyond reproach, and will not hesitate when I differ with his statistical analysis, I see nothing wrong with posting things on his blog. Granted, it's nominally a tropical weather blog, but I don't think that discussing non-tropical weather and climate are inappropriate. The realistic alternative would be to discuss the tropical weather in the southern hemisphere exclusively....as well as the occasional prediction of next year's season in the northern hemisphere.

I think it particularly useful to see the post on the negative feedback cycle with glacial movement in Greenland. That's a nice bit of science that will add to our understanding and will be put in climate models as it is solidified....or not if it's falsified later. (I'd guess the former is more likely, but its still new work...and not yet put through the wringer).

I think scientists have a right to political positions, I have my own. But, I try to be clear when I'm wearing my scientist hat and when I'm wearing my concerned citizen's hat. A good scientist will publish work that will decrease the liklyhood that what he wants to happen will happen because it is an accurate analysis. Scientists get into trouble when they pick and choose data and theories to match their politics.

The fact that Dr. Masters has given reviews of symposium presentations that indicate greater damage from global warming than some suspect and reviews that indicate lesser damage than others expect indicates to me that he is primarily trying to present the science. Good for him. I don't see anything wrong with that at all.
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:

Oh for Pete's sakes. The four of us should get together sometime over angelfood & devilsfood cakes and coffee!


i had rasin bran and lousiana hot sauce

Isn't Metamucil available in NC?
1163. amd
good precipitation amounts from Philly to Washington DC, and definitely into the Va Beach Area.

Assuming that much of this, especially north of central virginia, is all snow, there looks to be some nice totals from richmond to philly.

Sorry NYC and Boston.

Drak, looks like you nailed the jet stream not allowing the storm to complete the trek up the east coast. Good call at this point.

edit: forgot to add the gfs total precip forecast up to Sunday Night:

00Z GFS Precip up to Sunday Night
Been lurking again -- jeez people, please read all the data/info and stop cherry picking. Dr. M. posts an interesting snippet on the Greenland glacier slow down and the AGW crowd yells "SEE, TOLD YA", but not two days before this, he posted perhaps the single most sobering data set and graph I have ever seen on Artic ice levels -- not only model runs showing the Arctic ice free by 2100, but real world observation showing the models WAY OFF in a bad way (possibly ice free in less than 15 years!) How can people be SO certain they are right on either side? We need to watch, read, learn and probably ACT starting now, even if there is a chance science isn't "100% right" quite yet (is it really possible they are 100% wrong?) Trying my best to resist the flat earth folks right now. I think Columbus is sailing.
Quoting amd:
good precipitation amounts from Philly to Washington DC, and definitely into the Va Beach Area.

Assuming that much of this, especially north of central virginia, is all snow, there looks to be some nice totals from richmond to philly.

Sorry NYC and Boston.

Drak, looks like you nailed the jet stream not allowing the storm to complete the trek up the east coast. Good call at this point.


:D BETTER BE
00z gfs though 126 hrs now!!!
This is a comprehensive list of snowfall maps for all significant winter storms in NC during the past 33 years: Link
Quoting amd:
good precipitation amounts from Philly to Washington DC, and definitely into the Va Beach Area.

Assuming that much of this, especially north of central virginia, is all snow, there looks to be some nice totals from richmond to philly.

Sorry NYC and Boston.

Drak, looks like you nailed the jet stream not allowing the storm to complete the trek up the east coast. Good call at this point.


Temps will be right near 28-32F during the event. My guess on heaviest snow totals is between 4-12" from NC, VA, MD, DE, NJ. Philly, NY and Long Island may pick up a quick 2-4".
1169. Grothar
Quoting AwakeInMaryland:
i had rasin bran and lousiana hot sauce

Isn't Metamucil available in NC?


Say Goodnight, Gracie!!!!!
Quoting Grothar:


No problem, it is a running joke with a few of us on here. Did you go to La Sorbonne? I lived on the Quai de La Tournelle when I studied there.

No, my professor is from Paris. The closest I have lived to Paris is London. He thought Vercingetorix was brilliant so we all had to hear about Gaul and that region for days.
1171. Drakoen
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


drak how confident should we be in these model runs? 0z are the most reliable right?


The 00z and 12z runs are the best runs with the new data input in the models. There probably will be some fluctuations over the days to come, but the GFS 00z and the NAM 00z look good as far as track and handling the jet stream. The models trends are definitely in favor of a major east coast storm.
1172. amd
Quoting Bordonaro:


Temps will be right near 28-32F during the event. My guess on heaviest snow totals is between 4-12" from NC, VA, MD, GA, NJ. Philly, NY and Long Island may pick up a quick 2-4".


if the gfs output ends up verifying, those numbers WILL be underdone, IMO.

There is going to be 10:1 to 15:1 snow fall ratios from central virginia to philly at the height of the storm. So, if there is 0.80 inches of precipitation in Philly, that's at least 8 inches. If there is 1.5 inches of precip somewhere north of richmond on I-95, you are talking about possibly 18 inches of snow.

Let's just say I'm very happy about the GFS output considering that I'll arrive in Philly just before the fun begins, and I suspect, the results will just get even better.
1173. Grothar
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

No, my professor is from Paris. The closest I have lived to Paris is London. He thought Vercingetorix was brilliant so we all had to hear about Gaul and that region for days.


He certainly gave the Romans a run for their money. If I recall there is a winery named Vercingetorix. I forget the region, but do remember that I was unfamiliar with the name at the time. I learned soon enough. Still a certain pride there.
1174. Drakoen
Quoting amd:


if the gfs output ends up verifying, those numbers WILL be underdone, IMO.

There is going to be 10:1 to 15:1 snow fall ratios from central virginia to philly at the height of the storm. So, if there is 0.80 inches of precipitation in Philly, that's at least 8 inches. If there is 1.5 inches of precip somewhere north of richmond on I-95, you are talking about possibly 18 inches.

Let's just say I'm very happy about the GFS output considering that I'll arrive in Philly just before the fun begins, and I suspect, the results will just get even better.


I agree with those snow ratio. The mid level dynamics appear the greatest in Appalachians and work its way northeastward towards eastern Virginia.

so .1" of precip equals 1" of snow?
1176. Drakoen
GFS Snow depth:

1177. Drakoen
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
so .1" of precip equals 1" of snow?


Yes.
Quoting Grothar:


Say Goodnight, Gracie!!!!!


I won't grow up!
(I won't grow up)
No, I promise that I won't
(No, I promise that I won't)
I will stay a kid forever
(I will stay a kid forever)
And be banished if I don't!
(And be banished if I don't)

And Wunderland always be
The home of beauty and joy
And neverty
I'll never grow up, never grow up, never grow up
Not me!
Not me!
Not me!
Not me!
No sir!
Not me!
1179. Grothar
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS Snow depth:



Drak, Grothar here. Haven't asked you a question in a while. We have relatives coming from Oslo to Philadelphia then her in Ft. Lauderdale on the 20th. What is the expected time frame of this snow event. Philly is a terrible airport when the weather is perfect, unimaginable with snow. Can you answer?
interesting
Hmmm why not fly from Oslo to Miami?
1182. Grothar
Ok then Peter, Say goodnight!!!!! LOL
Captain Hook is not far behind.
1183. Drakoen
Quoting Grothar:


Drak, Grothar here. Haven't asked you a question in a while. We have relatives coming from Oslo to Philadelphia then her in Ft. Lauderdale on the 20th. What is the expected time frame of this snow event. Philly is a terrible airport when the weather is perfect, unimaginable with snow. Can you answer?


The low will be bearing down on that date with snow.
1184. Grothar
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Hmmm why not fly from Oslo to Miami?


Flying US Airways if you want to know. I don't like driving to Miami Airport. I live close to Ft. Lauderdale airport. Let them do the traveling. Anything else you would like to know? LOL
1185. Grothar
Quoting Drakoen:


The low will be bearing down on that date with snow.


In that area? What if they arrive on the 19th? I know you are not a reservationist, but it would really help. I have been following the progress of your posts and it appears it could be a good sized storm. I need some advice.
They can have Christmas in Philly then :P Did you come to Fort Lauderdale to escape winter?
1187. xcool



ooz



Quoting AwakeInMaryland:


I won't grow up!
(I won't grow up)
No, I promise that I won't
(No, I promise that I won't)
I will stay a kid forever
(I will stay a kid forever)
And be banished if I don't!
(And be banished if I don't)

And Wunderland always be
The home of beauty and joy
And neverty
I'll never grow up, never grow up, never grow up
Not me!
Not me!
Not me!
Not me!
No sir!
Not me!


Second star to the right, straight on till morning

Edit: LOML was the only one in the theater to catch this when it was uttered by Captain James T. Kirk in Star Trek VI - The Undiscovered Country at the end.
1189. Grothar
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
They can have Christmas in Philly then :P Did you come to Fort Lauderdale to escape winter?


This has been my home for many years. As I have mentioned many times before, my mothers family moved here in 1923. We have always maintained homes here or in Miami regardless of where else we have lived.
Oh I'm sorry, I didn't know. More native than almost all Floridians then :)
Quoting btwntx08:
interesting


Recent GFS models (the last 4) for 12-28-09 places precip and/or a L pressure over the SW GOM. It had N Central TX in the "bulls-eye" with the 12Z run. Here with the 00Z run, N TX just misses out.

At least there is some type of consistency here. We are also about 11 1/2 days out. The general rule is long range models past 7 days are unreliable. The NCEP, the people who generate these reports actually stated that It probably will not be until 12-24-09 until the L that moves into CA approaches. If it gets squeezed to the South, cold/possible frozen precip. If it takes the Northern route (which is possible, however looks unlikely) temps would moderate to near normal. The last run supresses the moisture to the S TX, but keeps the cold air entrenched.

Possibility of snow in the Hill Country, south to near Corpus Christi, across to near Houston (again) and into LA.
Second star to the right, straight on till morning
Doh! I remember that...it struck a deep resonating chord...guess the "inner child" recognized it but the adult brain didn't quite compute -- wow, cool.
Seas rising above 10 feet at buoy 42002--our new storm's birth cry! Link
Quoting xcool:



ooz





That would be amazing!!
1195. xcool



1196. Walshy
Looks like im going to get hammered this this weekend in north-west North Carolina.

Wilkes County schools already dismissing at 1pm Friday for Christmas break. I hope we get to go Friday so they don't cut off one day of our Christmas break next Monday. < With the snow totals looking like this I doubt we will even be going back then for a makeup day...


Winter Storm watches already issued for south-western NC so sometime later today the NWS in Blacksburg and the one in Raleigh will be issuing what they need. Expect a swath of watches to go up 24hours in advance.

I might post some pics here if this half a foot snow verifies from the GFS.
1197. Seastep
Quoting CatastrophicDL:

ROFL! You know while I understand and feel it is only logical that humans somehow impact the weather patterns of the earth, all this arguing makes me think of the evolution/creation argument. I'm thinking that when scientists can make primordial sludge evolve into a human then I'll be on board. In every case, I don't feel science has proved it's point.


Hi DL. Nice to see you around.

You have inspired me. I might create a blog entry to discuss just that (I'm pretty lazy when it comes to that). I'm a math/logic guy if anyone hasn't noticed.

Just as a hint, remember the old claim that if you have enough monkeys typing they would write a novel? Don't hear it so much anymore for a reason. Key is it is always qualified with "write every word of," which is valid but the penultimate example of propaganda, imo. Why? Someone would have to pull all those words together to make them coherent.

Math is math. Probability is probability (my actuarial textbook was 50 years old when I studied and is now... well... I'll just say a lot older and still in use).

Now for the ultimate blog killer (although it is late), string theory anyone?

Still excited about the new smasher. Looks like they've got it on the right track and we'll get some interesting insights within the next year. :)

Goodnight. Nice read tonight. Thanks all.
Quoting xcool:



ooz




wow!!!
1199. Walshy
GFS brings in more moisture than some of the other models. However, as of tonight even the drier models are starting to bring in a little bit more moisture now. Another disturbance is expected to cross NC Sunday night and even that may bring a chance of snow here after the bigger one leaves.



Some of these snow total maps I find very inaccurate based on the amount of moisture with the low confidence and other models saying showing different totals. Snow totals here in look about right but when you head east of Winston Salem, NC to Raleigh it may be more of a mix and cold rain east of there changing to snow as the moisture leaves. We will see later Thursday for sure if not Friday morning as the models change. GFS wants to bring in so much moisture so it cools faster from top down to allow for more accumulation. The drier models are now leaning to this but not as much yet to allow for light accumulation around south-eastern Greensboro, Asheboro and Raleigh NC.
1201. xcool
yayy
And the GFS madness continues!

1203. Walshy
Interesting blog at AccuWeather.com telling about -44 dew points in western NC.


Link
Have any of you bothered to calculate how much the combustion of natural gas and other hydrogen containing fossil fuels have raised sea levels? Each gram of natural gas that burns produces 2.25 grams of water vapor. that water vapor eventually falls to the ground as rain and then flows into the oceans.

Look out Fl. bay of Campeche is winding up.Lucky its not October but still feel uneasy.
1206. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
431 AM CST THU DEC 17 2009

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...MORE RAINFALL...LOCALLY
HEAVY...WILL BE SPREADING INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. UNFORTUNATELY...THE
AREAS THAT WE EXPECT THE HEAVIER RAINFALL TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE THE SAME AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER
THIS WEEK. SOME LOCATIONS IN NORTHERN BALDWIN AND ESCAMBIA COUNTIES
OF ALABAMA SAW UP TO LOCALLY 10 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH A LARGE AREA
GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WIGGINS...LUCEDALE...CITRONELLE...
MONROEVILLE...GREENVILLE LINE RECEIVING AT LEAST 4 INCHES AND IN
SOME INSTANCES 4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL. THIS EARLIER RAINFALL
RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD AREAL AND RIVER FLOODING...SOME OF WHICH
STILL CONTINUES. AS A RESULT...WE WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
VALID FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY FROM STONE AND GEORGE COUNTIES OF
MISSISSIPPI...NORTHEASTWARD INTO ALABAMA ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
I-65...AND FOR ALL OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WE EXPECT AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER THAT AREA...WITH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA LIKELY RECEIVING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN.
AS IS USUALLY THE CASE...LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL OF THIS ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
EARLY THIS MORNING THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF...AND BE APPROACHING THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COASTLINE BY AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO...WITH ALL SOLUTIONS SPREADING RAINFALL INTO THE FCST
AREA BY THIS EVENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES. THE TRACK OF THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER THE GULF...AND AS A RESULT
RAINS SHOULD BE MORE OF A STEADY STRATIFORM VARIETY AS ISENTROPIC
LIFTING MATERIALIZES NORTH OF THE LOW. BUT SOME ISOLATED EMBEDDED
HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM VERSUS THE
ONE WE HAD EARLIER IN THE WEEK IS THAT THIS ONE WILL BE MOVING MUCH
MORE QUICKLY ACROSS THE FCST AREA. THIS FASTER MOVEMENT SHOULD
RESULT IN LESS RAINFALL THAN WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED EARLIER IN THE
WEEK...BUT STILL WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL
FLOODING CONCERNS. STAY TUNED.
1197. Seastep 5:35 AM GMT on December 17, 2009
Now for the ultimate blog killer (although it is late), string theory anyone?

Hi knothead. ;>) long time no talk.
String theory? No thanks. Not a big fan of Berkley Astro Physics.
And no thanks on "bubble neucleation" being the vehicle to travel to their parallel universes.

BTW...how's the eagle watching?
1208. unf97
Good morning everyone.

Has the blog died all of the sudden? I haven't seen any new posts since Ike's post on the Mobile, AL NWS forecast discussion nearly an hour ago.
does anyone here have accuweather pro? if so can u show the snofall over the next 10 days please.
Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:57 PM GMT on December 15, 2009

I'm in San Francisco for the annual meeting of the American Geophysical Union, the world's largest gathering of climate scientists. I saw ten or so great talks yesterday (and five really boring ones!) Here's a summary of the the most interesting talk I heard yesterday:
**********************************************************************************************
Dr. Masters
Were there any talks you did not agree with?
Any alternate theories or fact finding?
1211. Patrap
GOM IR Loop

1212. Patrap
Flash Flood Watch

Statement as of 4:43 AM CST on December 17, 2009

... Flash Flood Watch remains in effect from noon CST today
through late tonight...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for




* portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi...
including the following areas... in southeast Louisiana...
Assumption... lower Jefferson... lower Lafourche... lower
Plaquemines... lower St. Bernard... lower Terrebonne... Orleans...
St. Charles... St. James... St. John The Baptist... St. Tammany...
upper Jefferson... upper Lafourche... upper Plaquemines... upper
St. Bernard and upper Terrebonne. In southern Mississippi...
Hancock... Harrison and Jackson.

* From noon CST today through late tonight
I feel for yall Pat. Something like 25" of rain for Dec. in the N.O. WOW
&
Its pretty soggy here in Lafayette too.
1215. Patrap
Just call us the Soggy Bottom Boyz
Patrap,
On the animation 1211, you posted there is a big triangular "low level" wedge of clouds that looks stationary even with the speedy winds aloft. Kinda like a forest fire smoke plume but in the middle of the Gulf.
24N, 93.5W
What is this?
Is it just a suface vapor boil under heavy wind sheer that would otherwise look like a more typical tropical wave as seen at 17N, 85W?
Or is it something stationary?
1217. Patrap
Quoting biff4ugo:
Patrap,
On the animation 1211, you posted there is a big triangular "low level" wedge of clouds that looks stationary even with the speedy winds aloft. Kinda like a forest fire smoke plume but in the middle of the Gulf.
24N, 93.5W
What is this?
Is it just a suface vapor boil under heavy wind sheer that would otherwise look like a more typical tropical wave as seen at 17N, 85W?
Or is it something stationary?


On the GOM IR Loop I presume,..

Low Level..or near surface clouds I believe.

Or surface flow one could say,..
1218. unf97
Good morning Patrap.

Your post of the GOM IR really shows our Low pressure area beginning to spin up. This Low really has a potential to rapidly intensify, which the GFS is forecasting. This one really will be interesting to watch. Also, my area in NE FL may get warm sectored just enough as the system moves through during the next 24-36 hours to possibly generate strong/severe storms. I will be watching that very carefully. This system definitely will be another signifcant rainfall event with flood concerns in S AL, panhandle of FL, and Southern Ga.

Looks like the models finally fell in line with this current GOM Low with my thinking a couple of days ago to bring snow to NC and VA. Get ready for a good band of snow from the NC foothills and piedmont along aand north of a line from Charlotte to Raleigh to interior Virginia. Winter storm watches already posted.

Looks like very strong cold air advection behind this Low will finally bring the season's first freeze to my area either Sunday or Monday morning. Expecting low 30s interior areas NE FL, with possible upper 20s by Monday morning.
1219. Patrap
Current US Surface Map.



G'mornin' all!
1221. Patrap
G'morning unf97,& doug..the Se US may have Many surprises in the next 10 days if the GFS verifies thru the period as forecasted now.
1222. P451
YES!


SATURDAY
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. BRISK WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT
CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. WINDY
WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

SUNDAY
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 30S.


Central NJ.



1223. P451
Mount Holly, NJ

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD, POPS WERE INCREASED
AS ALL EYES ARE FOCUSED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WHICH IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NC COAST ON SATURDAY AND WILL THEN MOVE OFF THE MID-
ATLC COAST TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON SUNDAY. THERE CONTINUES TO
BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
AND THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL LIKELY REMAIN. HOWEVER, VIRTUALLY ALL OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW CALLING FOR A SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER
BEGINNING FROM S TO N ON SATURDAY AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE PREPONDERANCE OF THE MODEL DATA NOW BRINGS THE SFC LOW
ON A MORE NWWD TRACK AND THIS OBVIOUSLY BRINGS MORE PRECIP TO THE
AREA AS WELL AS WINDS AND OTHER HAZARDS ASSOCD WITH A DEVELOPING
SFC LOW. THE NAM/WRF IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT HAS A MORE SWD TRACK
ATTM, AND ITS SOLN IS BEING DISREGARDED FOR NOW. AT H5. A VERY
DEEP TROF MOVS EWD AND BECOMES NEG TILTED WHICH IS ULTIMATELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR PULLING THE LOW FURTHER WWD, WHICH LOOKS
REASONABLE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING WE ARE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE
UPR TROF WITH A STRONG S/WV LIFTING OVER THE AREA.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WHILE NO PARTICULAR MODEL SOLN MAY
ULTIMATELY END UP BEING CORRECT, THE OBSERVED MDL TRENDS ARE
DIFFICULT TO IGNORE ATTM, AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE APPEARS TO BE
CONVERGING ON A SOLN. CERTAINLY, QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL
HAVE TO BE REFINED AS THE EVENT APPROACHES, AND CURRENT THINKING
IS THE GFS QPF MAY BE OVERDONE. NONETHELESS, TEMPS WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE PRECIP TO BE SNOW, WITH THE
PSBL EXCEPTION OF THE EXTREME SRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, DUE TO A
PSBL FETCH FROM THE WARM OCEAN. SNOWFALL AMTS OF SEVERAL INCHES
SEEM PSBL BASED ON CURRENT FCSTS. WITH STRONG DYNAMICS AND UVV, A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN NOT BE RULED OUT EITHER, AS WE HAVE STRONG
FRONTOGENESIS ALOFT LINING UP WITH PSBL INSTABILITY.

THE NEXT CONCERN THEN SHIFTS TO WINDS. AS THE LOW APPROACHES, WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY SATURDAY NIGHT,
ESPECIALLY ALG THE COAST. A STRONG N TO NELY FETCH IS LIKELY UNTIL
THE LOW MOVES ON BY EARLY SUNDAY. THEN THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE NW.

ULTIMATELY, EVERYTHING IN THIS CURRENT FCST RATIONALE IS BASED ON
THE CONSENSUS MDL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND A SLIGHT SHIFT
ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WILL HAVE LARGE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE FINAL FCST.
IT ALSO REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS NRN AND WWD SHIFT IN THE MDLS
WILL CONTINUE BRINGING THE STORM EVEN CLOSER TO THE CST. WHILE
THAT WOULD INCREASE PRBLMS FOR THE CST, IT WOULD PSBLY BRING IN
WARMER AIR WHICH COULD HELP KEEP ANY EVENTUAL ACCUMULATIONS DOWN.

NEEDLESS TO SAY, STAY TUNED.
The GFS is showing snow in Central Florida on Christmas day! I don't believe it though. Just doesn't seem right giving how warm it's been.
Good Mornin'

Thanks Patrap.

I got to ask a question of the President of the Maldives, at the climate change conference on Monday via oneclimate.net.
It was stunning to hear that they aren't making plans to move, given that sea level is rising. It seems so fatalistic, since sea level will rise with or without climate change and the fringe atolls will eventually go under if the coral doesn't keep up.
What a huge catch 22, they need tourism to survive but air travel produces greenhouse gasses that raise sea level faster.
1226. dsauder
I thought the purpose of this blog was to discuss Dr Master's comments and the whole issue of global weather in general.

How comes there is so much discussion about viking helmets when the very essay under discussion contains the following quote, (second sentence in the second paragraph)

"Greenland holds enough ice to raise global sea level by over 20 feet (6.5 meters), should its ice cap completely disintegrate"

I repeat my question from #971,

"Please explain how melting all the ice on Greenland could possibly raise sea levels by 20 feet!
I must be mathematically challenged, but my figures indicate that such a result would require the ice sheet on Greenland to be uniformly 22,367 feet thick over the ENTIRE island"!


That is, even if it were FLAT, which it is not. And, No, the weight of the ice does not push the entire land surface down to sea level or below.

I maintain that there is just not enough ice on Greenland to do what is being claimed.

WE are being HOODWINKED by so called data that very few take the time to check and challenge!
Does no one care that we are being fed a bunch of hot air? Or does everyone have their head in the sand? No wonder the globe is warming!

Or is it?
1227. Patrap
Well..the refractor is cool.

Can ya see Santa?

Your math is way off.

The Greenland Water/ice content is a easily found number,and is published in over 130 peer-reviewed papers.

1228. dsauder
Almost!
1229. Patrap
Beats my Meade 4.5 Reflector, easily.
Might we get a name out of this one?
1234. NEwxguy
That gulf low is going to dump some snow on someone in the mid-atlantic,and going to be a close call for me.
Good evening all, well what can i say, its happened to me again.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Might we get a name out of this one?


I don't think it will get a name due to so much cold air getting involved into the system. It will be a strong storm though. Next weeks storm could be stronger as it dives into the gulf and then up across north Florida.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I don't think it will get a name due to so much cold getting involved into the system. It will be a strong storm though. Next weeks storm could be stronger as it dives into the gulf and then up across north Florida.



This One?

Central and South Florida appears to be in for one hell of a severe weather event tomorrow, maybe starting later tonight.
1239. dsauder
Patrap,

If the area of Earth's oceans is 935,327,486 sq miles and the area of Greenland is 836,330 sq miles, a 20 foot rise (0.003787879 miles) in the ocean level would equal a 22,367 foot (4.22356 mile) thickness of Greenland ice.

That is ignoring the fact that ice is less dense than water and therefore would need to be even thicker. It also ignores the fact that a 20 foot rise in sea level would increase the area of the oceans by some significant factor.

Please help me. What, specifically, is wrong with that math?
1240. Drakoen
The ECMWF, GGEM, GFS, AND UKMET have come into better agreement with the timing and track of the Nor'easter that will affect the eastern seaboard. While the GFS and UKMET has the most northern and westward track keeping the system adjacent to the Delmarva and Long island areas, the ECMWF and GGEM continue to eject the system NE and ENE before the system makes it that far north. Regardless, concerning the Mid-Atlantic states, look for widespread snow fall accumulations with snow ratios between 10:1 to 15:1 with the highest rations near the Appalachians and then back towards Virginia, Maryland, and the Delmarva with good omega forcing (mid level dynamics) for dense snowfall accumulations. Widespread area of over a foot of snow in the snow growth region.



Yes, as it gets to that point this storm could deepen fast as it heads toward north Florida. This will set up a potentially dangerous Christmas Eve night for Florida in regards to the severe weather potential.
Good morning all! Pat, are you a man of constant sorrow? That low is looking impressive this AM.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Good evening all, well what can i say, its happened to me again.



I'll bite.
Wassup Aussie?
1244. EstherD
Quoting dsauder:
... If the area of Earth's oceans is 935,327,486 sq miles ...


Where did you get that number? According to Wikipedia, the area of the earth's oceans is 361,132,000 sq km, which is 139,433,845 sq mi. Using the wrong value for ocean area is the reason your math is wrong by nearly a factor of 10. (Think you might have blown the conversion of sq km to sq mi -- multiplied by 2.6 instead of dividing by 2.6 ?)

Here's the correct calculation... Area of ocean is 361,132,000 sq km. 20 feet rise = 0.006096 km. Meltwater volume is therefore 2,201,460 cu km. Area of Greenland is 2,166,086 sq km. Average ice thickness is therefore 1.016 km = 0.63 mi = 3,333 ft.

That jives with the facts... "The ice cap averages about 5,000 feet (1,500 meters) in thickness, but can be as thick as 14,000 feet (4,300 meters)."
Quoting Jeff9641:
Yes, as it gets to that point this storm could deepen fast as it heads toward north Florida. This will set up a potentially dangerous Christmas Eve night for Florida in regards to the severe weather potential.



The divers always concern me. Look at St. Louis a few years back.
1246. NEwxguy
These east coast nor'easters are always tricky,a deviation of 50 or 75 miles makes so much difference on who gets dumped on and who misses.Looks like it will be sharp cutoff on qpf too.
Quoting dsauder:
Patrap,

If the area of Earth's oceans is 935,327,486 sq miles and the area of Greenland is 836,330 sq miles, a 20 foot rise (0.003787879 miles) in the ocean level would equal a 22,367 foot (4.22356 mile) thickness of Greenland ice.

That is ignoring the fact that ice is less dense than water and therefore would need to be even thicker. It also ignores the fact that a 20 foot rise in sea level would increase the area of the oceans by some significant factor.

Please help me. What, specifically, is wrong with that math?

Your numbers do check out. (the calculations anyway)

Maybe the 20 feet includes more than just Greenland...

Good catch, EstherD! What is the correct area in sq miles for the oceans?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



I'll bite.
Wassup Ausie?

Well,,, today got to a top of 42C(107.6F) and the day has ended with thunderstorms. Well i am driving home from work and its raining pretty hard. then ***FLASH*** .car just shuts down, dead, no battery no nothing. A car pulls up beside me as i'm hopping out to see whats wrong... said he saw my car get struck by lightening and was stopping to see if i was ok. I told him my car wont start. He said, I'm not surprised, it got struck. I was like... no way, your joking. So he gave me a jump start. and asked again if I was alright which i assured him I was, and we both drove off.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well,,, today got to a top of 42C(107.6F) and the day has ended with thunderstorms. Well i am driving home from work and its raining pretty hard. then ***FLASH*** .car just shuts down, dead, no battery no nothing. A car pulls up beside me as i'm hopping out to see whats wrong... said he saw my car get struck by lightening and was stopping to see if i was ok. I told him my car wont start. He said, I'm not surprised, it got struck. I was like... no way, your joking. So he gave me a jump start. and asked again if I was alright which i assured him I was, and we both drove off.


Time to buy a Lotto ticket :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Time to buy a Lotto ticket :)

that makes it twice i have been struck by lightening, 3rd time i think i wont be as fortunate.
Quoting atmoaggie:

You numbers do check out. (the calculations anyway)

Maybe the 20 feet includes more than just Greenland...

Good catch, EstherD! What is the correct area in sq miles for the oceans?


Do not check their math... or their facts, they are counting on blind obedience to what they say. Its hard to lead the sheep to the promised land... if they start to think for themselves.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Well,,, today got to a top of 42C(107.6F) and the day has ended with thunderstorms. Well i am driving home from work and its raining pretty hard. then ***FLASH*** .car just shuts down, dead, no battery no nothing. A car pulls up beside me as i'm hopping out to see whats wrong... said he saw my car get struck by lightening and was stopping to see if i was ok. I told him my car wont start. He said, I'm not surprised, it got struck. I was like... no way, your joking. So he gave me a jump start. and asked again if I was alright which i assured him I was, and we both drove off.


WOW!!Aussie that is CRAZY! You guys must get thunderstorms like we get in Florida. If I was you I would play the Lotto because you might win. That almost never happens. I'm glad your safe.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well,,, today got to a top of 42C(107.6F) and the day has ended with thunderstorms. Well i am driving home from work and its raining pretty hard. then ***FLASH*** .car just shuts down, dead, no battery no nothing. A car pulls up beside me as i'm hopping out to see whats wrong... said he saw my car get struck by lightening and was stopping to see if i was ok. I told him my car wont start. He said, I'm not surprised, it got struck. I was like... no way, your joking. So he gave me a jump start. and asked again if I was alright which i assured him I was, and we both drove off.


Since it appears that you are unharmed - that is an awesome story man!
Quoting tornadofan:


Since it appears that you are unharmed - that is an awesome story man!


Man! Amazing does't do justice for that. It is extremely rare that you hear of someone getting hit by lightning while driving. I've heard of many lightning stories here in Central Florida but nothing like that. WOW!
I don't no if the shock of everything has hit me yet. I'm like, did that really happen?
1257. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:
I don't no if the shock of everything has hit me yet. I'm like, did that really happen?


I guess the 42.6C was enough to create some insane lightning. It seems the hotter it is the worse the lightning. This has been my experience in what is considered the lightning capital of the US maybe the world depending on the year.
Our storm is really starting to crank P.
1260. dsauder
EstherD,

Thank you so much! I did screw up somewhere and I apologise to Dr Masters and all.

Quoting EstherD:
Here's the correct calculation... Area of ocean is 361,132,000 sq km. 20 feet rise = 0.006096 km. Meltwater volume is therefore 2,201,460 cu km. Area of Greenland is 2,166,086 sq km. Average ice thickness is therefore 1.016 km = 0.63 mi = 3,333 ft.

I'll need to tune up my calculator technique before I try that again! I should have left the units in metric but I just liked the old english system better. Boo Hoo Hoo.
1261. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:
I don't no if the shock of everything has hit me yet. I'm like, did that really happen?


That's just nuts! How loud was it?
man...

the gfs wants to dump on us in central va....local mets are saying anywhere from 5-10 inches in the area...gfs/nam wanna give us 10-16...i think ill believe anything over 5 when i see it...
1263. usa777
Does anyone have any predictions for snowfall this weekend in the Maryland area?
Quoting usa777:
Does anyone have any predictions for snowfall this weekend in the Maryland area?


The more east in Maryland the better your snowfall chances. Eastern Maryland could get a foot of snow.
Quoting P451:


That's just nuts! How loud was it?

Well, there was no sound, which is very strange. just a massive flash that was all around me.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well, there was no sound, which is very strange. just a massive flash that was all around me.


A lightning strike hit about 10 feet from me and my wife while standing in our house in August and we experienced the same thing there wasn't much sound because it hit so close.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well, there was no sound, which is very strange. just a massive flash that was all around me.

Awesome story, Aussie. How is your car now? (and any marks that you can see where the lightning hit?)

As for the lack of thunder... when you are the actual target of the lightning, the air simply does not have enough space between you and the lightning bolt to compress and form the shock wave that is thunder.
1268. P451
Quoting Jeff9641:
Our storm is really starting to crank P.


Looking powerful. Looks like a severe weather event. Wondering how far north the snow gets as NJ is a big cutoff in the current QPFs. Looks like I may see 4-6 inches. Too early to call. A couple of miles is always a big difference in this state.
Quoting AussieStorm:
I don't no if the shock of everything has hit me yet. I'm like, did that really happen?


Aussie it must have not been a direct hit....but within a few feet from you...you would have a serious burn spot and hole in your car.
Ya about two years lightening hit my orange tree in the back yard and it sounded like electricity going through the really big power poles. Almost like buzzing sound but not real loud. The orange tree was shooting sparks out of the top branches. scared the crap out of me, because I just happened to look out the window when the bolt hit the tree.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Aussie it must have not been a direct hit....but within a few feet from you...you would have a serious burn spot and hole in your car.


Sometimes the tires will ground the car and you wont see a mark or get burned.
Quoting P451:


Looking powerful. Looks like a severe weather event. Wondering how far north the snow gets as NJ is a big cutoff in the current QPFs. Looks like I may see 4-6 inches. Too early to call. A couple of miles is always a big difference in this state.


Some models last night had snow all the way into NY. If there was a storm to over achieve this might be it. Your 4 to 6 could be 8 to 10. Well see how it tracks in the next 24 hours.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Sometimes the tires will ground the car and you wont see a mark or get burned.

That's backwards. The tires don't ground the vehicle. Probably the safest place you could be.
Quoting jeffs713:

Awesome story, Aussie. How is your car now? (and any marks that you can see where the lightning hit?)

As for the lack of thunder... when you are the actual target of the lightning, the air simply does not have enough space between you and the lightning bolt to compress and form the shock wave that is thunder.

I just checked my car, no marks,,, nothing. maybe due to the very heavy rain at the time guided the electricity around my car as well as the car body
Quoting theshepherd:

That's backwards. The tires don't ground the vehicle. Probably the safest place you could be.


Oops, oh well I tried.
The Accuweather "point and click" forecasts (which is computer generated from the GFS) show sleet and/or freezing rain in small amounts on and off for 3 days starting on Christmas Eve for P'cola.
1277. hydrus
Quoting dsauder:
Patrap,

If the area of Earth's oceans is 935,327,486 sq miles and the area of Greenland is 836,330 sq miles, a 20 foot rise (0.003787879 miles) in the ocean level would equal a 22,367 foot (4.22356 mile) thickness of Greenland ice.

That is ignoring the fact that ice is less dense than water and therefore would need to be even thicker. It also ignores the fact that a 20 foot rise in sea level would increase the area of the oceans by some significant factor.

Please help me. What, specifically, is wrong with that math?
The area of the worlds oceans is around 139,000,000 square miles. I think the number you have is high.
1278. Grothar
Quoting hydrus:
The area of the worlds oceans is around 139,000,000 miles. I think the number you have is high.


I believe you meant to say 139,000,000 sq miles. Quite a bit of a difference.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Well,,, today got to a top of 42C(107.6F) and the day has ended with thunderstorms. Well i am driving home from work and its raining pretty hard. then ***FLASH*** .car just shuts down, dead, no battery no nothing. A car pulls up beside me as i'm hopping out to see whats wrong... said he saw my car get struck by lightening and was stopping to see if i was ok. I told him my car wont start. He said, I'm not surprised, it got struck. I was like... no way, your joking. So he gave me a jump start. and asked again if I was alright which i assured him I was, and we both drove off.

Incredible!

I always wondered if an auto chassis would hold a charge after that and then fry whomever got out while touching ground and car at the same time...(less likely during a good rain and/or 100% humidity, tho)

If it happened to me, I would probably jump out of the car so as not to be a conductor myself and then find a way to put something metal from car body to ground BEFORE I touched both at the same time.
did the math too:
USGS Greenland Cap Volume: 630,000 cubic miles.
World atlas Ocean Surface Area 335,258,000 sq km
335 258 000 square kilometer = 129 443 837.47 square mile
630,000/129,443,837.47 = .004867 miles = over 25 feet.
ballpark figures
Quoting TampaSpin:


Aussie it must have not been a direct hit....but within a few feet from you...you would have a serious burn spot and hole in your car.

That I agree with...
From the National Lightning Safety Institute (US)

What happens when lightning strikes a vehicle? The answer, gleaned from anecdotal observations, is all the way from "Nothing" to "Wow! What a mess . . . my car is a disaster."

Electrically speaking, at lightning's higher frequencies, currents are carried mostly on the outside of conducting objects. A thick copper wire or a hollow-wall metal pipe will carry most of the lightning on outer surfaces. This phenomenon is called "skin effect." The same holds true for lightning when it strikes metal vehicles: the outer surface carries most of the electricity. The persons inside this steel box can be likened to protected by a partial Faraday cage.

But, consistent with lightning's capricious nature, situations alter results. Is the car dry or wet? If the car is made of fiberglass (a poor conductor) or a convertible, skin effect principles may not work. (Corvette and Saturn owners, please note this fact.)...

In many cases you will not find physical damage. Lightning can induce indirect effects to a vehicle's electrical and electronic systems. These low-voltage components may be damaged or destroyed. Auto dealer diagnostics are limited to "it works or it doesn't work" without the ability to disclose the cause or source of malfunction.

Complete article

not to take any one a way from are storm but this is some in you guys need too think about and it has some in to do with yelllowstone


Yellowstone's Plumbing Reveals Plume of Hot and Molten Rock 410 Miles Deep


Link
Quoting PcolaDan:
From the National Lightning Safety Institute (US)

What happens when lightning strikes a vehicle? The answer, gleaned from anecdotal observations, is all the way from "Nothing" to "Wow! What a mess . . . my car is a disaster."

Electrically speaking, at lightning's higher frequencies, currents are carried mostly on the outside of conducting objects. A thick copper wire or a hollow-wall metal pipe will carry most of the lightning on outer surfaces. This phenomenon is called "skin effect." The same holds true for lightning when it strikes metal vehicles: the outer surface carries most of the electricity. The persons inside this steel box can be likened to protected by a partial Faraday cage.

But, consistent with lightning's capricious nature, situations alter results. Is the car dry or wet? If the car is made of fiberglass (a poor conductor) or a convertible, skin effect principles may not work. (Corvette and Saturn owners, please note this fact.)...

In many cases you will not find physical damage. Lightning can induce indirect effects to a vehicle's electrical and electronic systems. These low-voltage components may be damaged or destroyed. Auto dealer diagnostics are limited to "it works or it doesn't work" without the ability to disclose the cause or source of malfunction.

Complete article


Aussie time for a trade in.
Quoting Patrap:
Just call us the Soggy Bottom Boyz


I am the man of constant sorrow
I've seen trouble all my days
I bid farewell to ol' Kentucky
The place where I was born and raised.

The place where he was born and raised
Quoting Floodman:


I am the man of constant sorrow
I've seen trouble all my days
I bid farewell to ol' Kentucky
The place where I was born and raised.

The place where he was born and raised


Oh Brother Flood, where art thou?
Or should I say, how art thou?
LOL!
Heads Up Tonight. I was just at the ocean 30+ kt sustained winds along the front.

IN THE MEAN TIME...CSTL BOUNDARY/TROUGH MARKING LAND-SEA INTERFACE
ALONG THE SE FL CST SSW INTO THE EVERGLADES LIKELY WILL REMAIN A
FOCUS FOR SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ISOLD
WATERSPOUT OR TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THIS FEATURE
TODAY...ALTHOUGH MODEST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
DURATION/SCOPE/INTENSITY OF ANY SUCH DEVELOPMENT. A GRADUALLY
INCREASING SVR THREAT MAY...HOWEVER...EVOLVE ALONG THIS FEATURE...OR
OTHER SIMILAR LOW LVL BOUNDARIES...OVER SRN/E CNTRL FL TONIGHT AND
EARLY FRI AS WINDS...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...AND FORCING FOR ASCENT
INCREASE AHEAD OF GULF WAVE.


..CORFIDI.. 12/17/2009
Quoting atmoaggie:

That I agree with...
Lightning is about as predictable as a shark.
;>)
Metal bodies much safer than composite.
Holy Cow Aussie! That is an incredible occurrence! Good thing you're OK! What's the damage report from Laurence? That was one killer storm!
Quoting StormChaser81:


Aussie time for a trade in.

my car is booked in for a service on monday, if its still alive then i will let them no about the lightening strike
Quoting PcolaDan:
From the National Lightning Safety Institute (US)

What happens when lightning strikes a vehicle? The answer, gleaned from anecdotal observations, is all the way from "Nothing" to "Wow! What a mess . . . my car is a disaster."

Electrically speaking, at lightning's higher frequencies, currents are carried mostly on the outside of conducting objects. A thick copper wire or a hollow-wall metal pipe will carry most of the lightning on outer surfaces. This phenomenon is called "skin effect." The same holds true for lightning when it strikes metal vehicles: the outer surface carries most of the electricity. The persons inside this steel box can be likened to protected by a partial Faraday cage.

But, consistent with lightning's capricious nature, situations alter results. Is the car dry or wet? If the car is made of fiberglass (a poor conductor) or a convertible, skin effect principles may not work. (Corvette and Saturn owners, please note this fact.)...

In many cases you will not find physical damage. Lightning can induce indirect effects to a vehicle's electrical and electronic systems. These low-voltage components may be damaged or destroyed. Auto dealer diagnostics are limited to "it works or it doesn't work" without the ability to disclose the cause or source of malfunction.

Complete article


very interesting....in the sailing community there always seems to be some sort of new fangled, high priced lightening abatement gadget or system...none of which ever work very well...the best lightening abatement strategy, in my opinion, is prayer...
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Oh Brother Flood, where art thou?
Or should I say, how art thou?
LOL!


I'm having a good day...not much by way of muscle spasm and the pain is an easy 2-3.

How are you doing?
The GFS is putting this low much further south in the GOM and making it a much deeper storm come Friday. The latest run is interesting. Can anyone verify this on surface maps?
1294. hydrus
Quoting Grothar:


I believe you meant to say 139,000,000 sq miles. Quite a bit of a difference.
Good morning Grother, yes sir, I meant square miles.:)
Quoting Floodman:


I'm having a good day...not much by way of muscle spasm and the pain is an easy 2-3.

How are you doing?

Hey Floodman, so good to see ya... how's things
Goood morning to everyone, by the way, including my friend from down under...interesting, aussie...the closest I've been was once when I was a kid camping an oak about 100" away got hit and just prior to it my hair stood on end...
Quoting theshepherd:
Lightning is about as predictable as a shark.
;>)
Metal bodies much safer than composite.

What if we went (unwillingly) with all composite auto bodies in the name of gas mileage?

Auto would no longer be as good a place to be during a lightning storm...
Quoting Floodman:
Goood morning to everyone, by the way, including my friend from down under...interesting, aussie...the closest I've been was once when I was a kid camping an oak about 100" away got hit and just prior to it my hair stood on end...

its the 2nd time for me to gave a direct hit from lightening. 1st time was 16 years ago
don't remember much
1300. hydrus
Quoting AussieStorm:

Hey Floodman, so good to see ya... how's things
Good Morning to all, hope you are doing well Flood. Aussie, what is the latest on the damage from Lawrence?
Quoting Floodman:


I'm having a good day...not much by way of muscle spasm and the pain is an easy 2-3.

How are you doing?


Doing great! Won a Nintendo Wii at the Christmas party yesterday and the bowling game is rather addictive! Glad to hear you're having a good day. How is the weather looking? Still cold?
19N 92.5W
Quoting hydrus:
Good Morning to all, hope you are doing well Flood. Aussie, what is the latest on the damage from Lawrence?


RFDS(Royal Flying Doctors Service) fly in to evacuate man, 26, injured in Cyclone Laurence roof fall

A 26-YEAR-old man has been seriously injured and is being flown to Perth by Royal Flying Doctor after being blown off a roof by high winds from Tropical Cyclone Laurence.

The man, who will be evacuated by Royal Flying Doctor, appears to have damage to his spine and hip and has a broken arm.

The RFDS will be sending its Rio Tinto Life Flight jet and a medical crew from Perth to evacuate the badly injured patient from Kununurra, after Tropical Cyclone Laurence forced the RFDS Derby base into lock down.

RFDS aircraft at the Derby base which normally would have been used to pick up the man from Kununurra hospital and transfer him to Darwin have been locked down due to strong wind gusts and heavy rain.

However, the RFDS Jet will fly into the cyclonic weather, leaving Perth airport at about 10.30am and arriving in Kununurra at about 1.30pm.
The crew will then decide whether to transfer the injured man to Darwin or Perth, depending on weather conditions.

“If we didn’t have the Rio Tinto Life Flight jet this badly injured man would have been stuck at Kununurra,” said RFDS Medical Director, Stephen Langford.

“Instead he’ll be transferred to specialist care in a matter of hours.”

All clear for Derby as storm moves south

Cyclone Laurence weakened today but authorities are still warning residents in the path of its destructive winds - and the chance it could restrengthen in coming days.

An all clear was issued for the town of Derby about 6.30pm as the cyclone continued on its southerly track, weakening to a category 1 storm. Communities at Cape Leveque, One Arm Point, Djarindjin, Lombadina and nearby were also given the all clear.

At 5 pm Laurence, Category 1, was estimated to be 85km east of Derby and moving south at five kilometres per hour.

It had moved slowly over land east of Derby and had gradually weakened.

Gales with gusts to 100 kilometres per hour are possible close to the cyclone centre, FESA said.

Gales are possible near the centre overnight as Laurence moves to the south or southwest.

Heavy raid is expected to continue over the northwest Kimberley.

Daily rainfall totals in excess of 100mm are expected with isolated falls as high as 300mm possible near the path of the cyclone.

``It's really slowed down overnight but there's still a possibility of destructive winds,'' James Ashley, a forecaster at Perth's Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre told AAP on Thursday.

``Cyclones gradually weaken over land and this will be no exception but it's still strong enough to do some damage.''

``People shouldn't get complacent about it.''

Wind gusts of up to 155km/h are still possible close the the cyclone centre, he said.

A cyclone watch is current for Beagle Bay to Bidyadanga, including Broome, and also extending inland to Fitzroy Crossing.

Laurence, the first cyclone of the season off the WA coast, formed in the Timor Sea on Sunday.
BTW, y'all, AIM got a 24 hour WU vacation, but she is prolly lurking.

So now is our chance to talk about her all we want and all she can do is hurl insults at her monitor.

I'll start.

Is AIM a cougar?
Weakened cyclone heads for WA towns

Several communities in Western Australia's Kimberley region remain on red alert as a rapidly weakening cyclone moves inland.

Emergency services were worried as the small but intense Tropical Cyclone Laurence intensified to a category 5 system yesterday.

With gusts up to 285 kilometres per hour, there were fears the destructive winds could hit remote communities.

But the storm threaded its way past Kuri Bay before making landfall last night about 100km north of Derby.

It has now been downgraded to a category 2 cyclone but still has winds up to 155kph.

Residents in Derby, Koolan Island and Cockatoo Island have been warned to take shelter.

Cyclone Laurence is expected to sweep inland past Derby this afternoon, weakening to a category 1 as it reaches the town of 4,500.

Lee Vallance from the Fire and Emergency Services Authority (FESA) has warned residents to expect damage to the town.

"It just means they should expect some kind of impact from the cyclone and to seek shelter," he said.

FESA is warning people to remain indoors, keep windows and doors closed, disconnect electrical appliances and turn off gas supply valves.

Motorists are being asked to park vehicles in sheltered areas with the handbrake on.

The town's shops and schools will stay closed until the alert is lifted.

FESA's Rob Cox says parts of the highway between Derby, Fitzroy Crossing and Broome will be closed until the all-clear is issued.

"People coming from Port Hedland need to stop at Roebuck Roadhouse or don't travel, and people in Fitzroy Crossing need to stay in Fitzroy Crossing," he said.

"The people in Derby need to stay in Derby, until through the ABC or through the media there is an advice from BOM [the weather bureau] that there is an all-clear."

Cyclone Laurence has already brought heavy rains and destructive winds to communities and cattle stations across the north Kimberley.

But Gordon Tiddums from FESA says Kuri Bay was relatively unscathed.

"Really there's no damage, just trees down. They've had some strong gusts of wind but no buildings destroyed," he said.

Linda Pearson from Theda Station says the property received 175 millimetres of rain in 24 hours and she expects to be stranded for several days.

"We've just had a very heavy storm. You can't go anywhere, literally, because the water on the roads is too deep," she said.

"We've got water above our lawns, our septic tanks are flooding, our roads are now rivers and our driveway is a river."

- ABC
Quoting atmoaggie:
BTW, y'all, AIM got a 24 hour WU vacation, but she is prolly lurking.

So now is our chance to talk about her all we want and all she can do is hurl insults at her monitor.

I'll start.

Is AIM a cougar?

AIM??? who's she?
Windows explode as lightning hits house

Windows were blown out as lightning struck an Adelaide house during thunderstorms.

An elderly Adelaide couple is in shock after their house at Hallett Cove in the southern suburbs was hit.

Jan Nittsjo was in bed and his wife Brigitte was watching television when the bolt struck their TV antenna just after 9:30pm on Wednesday.

The ceiling caved in, hitting Mrs Nittsjo on the head and she screamed.

The couple says there was a deafening bang and the bolt shook the house, shorting electrical wiring and leaving a large hole in the roof.

Mrs Nittsjo says she was momentarily deafened by the noise and Mr Nittsjo says he did not know what to think at the time.

"It was terrible," he told reporters. "She was watching TV and I was listening to the radio in the bedroom and all of a sudden 'bang', the ceiling fell down, all the paintings and things fell off."

The couple is now cleaning up the house but making plans to go elsewhere for Christmas.

The damage bill is put at $100,000.

- ABC
NEW BLOG
Quoting AussieStorm:

AIM??? who's she?

AwakeInMaryland
Quoting AussieStorm:

AIM??? who's she?


Awake in Maryland
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Doing great! Won a Nintendo Wii at the Christmas party yesterday and the bowling game is rather addictive! Glad to hear you're having a good day. How is the weather looking? Still cold?


A little chilly; high to day around 50 or so but the wind is calm.

That bowling game is addictive, isn't it?
Quoting bappit:
Has anyone commented on the "slown down" title of Masters' blog post?


Not that I've seen, and it's irritating me. Title should be "SLOWED DOWN." "SLOWN" isn't a word!