WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Why so many U.S. hurricanes the past two years?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:51 PM GMT on December 05, 2005

Before I answer the title question, let's talk about Epsilon. This hurricane refuses to die, despite cold waters and high wind shear. The latest model projections continue to keep it as a hurricane for at least two more days, which would make 2005 break the record for most number of hurricane days (50, set in 1995) and most number of days with a named tropical storm (120.5, set in 1995). Beyond three days from now, I really don't see how the storm can survive, since wind shear levels will increase to more than 50 knots, which will surely tear the storm apart. Nothing else is brewing in the tropics, although there is a marginal possibility of something developing north of Panama a week or so from now.

Why have so many hurricanes hit the U.S. in 2004 and 2005?
The 1995 - 2003 hurricane seasons were quite active, but only 3 of 32 (9%) major hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic made landfall in the United States, much below the climatological average of 30% for the entire 20th century. This lack of hurricane strikes occurred because a trough of low pressure was frequently located over the East Coast during these years, and the flow of winds through the trough tended to recurve hurricanes northeastward out to sea before they could strike land. However, in 2004 and again in 2005, this trough was mostly absent, and an unusually strong ridge of high pressure was in place which tended to steer hurricanes into the U.S. and not allow recurvature. Seven of 13 (54%) major hurricanes that formed in the Atlantic made United States landfall as major hurricanes during 2004 and 2005.

So, what caused this unusually strong ridge of high pressure to develop over the eastern U.S.? According to Dr. Bill Gray's hurricane forecast team at Colorado State University, this ridge formed in response to a strong warming of the ocean in the central North Pacific. Figure 3 shows the difference in Pacific sea surface temperatures during August-October 2004-2005 from August-October 1995-2003. Central North Pacific sea surface temperatures were up to 1.3C (2.3F) warmer in 2004-2005 compared to 1995-2003, leading to a deflection of the jet stream dowstream of the warm pool. The jet stream assumed a standing wave pattern, resulting in a ridge of high pressure over the central Pacific, trough of low pressure over the western U.S., and high of high pressure over the eastern U.S. It was this ridge of high pressure over the eastern U.S. that steered so many storms into the country during 2004-2005. Why did the ocean warm in the central North Pacific, and will that warm pool remain in place for the 2006 hurricane season? That is unknown.

Tune in tomorrow, when Dr. Bill Gray's forecast team releases their 2006 hurricane season forecast.



Figure 3. August-October 2004-2005 sea surface temperatures minus August-October 1995-2003 sea surface temperatures. Note the large warming of 1.3 degrees C in the central North Pacific. Image credit: Dr. Bill Gray's hurricane forecast team at Colorado State University.


Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

first?
Looks like NHC TPC may be frustrated...perhaps they are asking for one more recon but can't get it. From 10am discussion (Avila):

I AM AM NOT GOING TO SPECULATE ANY MORE ON THE FUTURE INTENSITY OF EPSILON AND WILL JUST FOLLOW SHIPS AND GFDL WHICH ARE THE BEST GUIDANCE AVAILABLE

We've been lucky to have Stewart or Avila on during days most of the time Epsilon has been active.

The simplest explanation about the wind shear: we haven't been seeing it because it isn't there. Of course...it is there, but perhaps Epsilon is a shallow system and the winds up at 100-250mb are not affecting it. Or the outflow is strong enough to displace it. The latest CIMSS upper level wind product does show outflow in the SW quad of Epsilon did make it up to that level.

Also maybe it is still a hybrid in some way, and is somehow getting energy from both baroclinic and barotropic processes, something that may only be possible in this colder environment, even though it appears 100% tropical.
Well, you are :D

Epsilon looking really good, looks almost like it's setting up a CDO.
Could Epsilon be the fifth to make US landfall? This thing is fooling around so much with the NHC, it would be natural for him to make landfall in South Florida as a weak storm, then for a split second become a major hurricane at the NHC headquarters before weakening right back down again...
crazy... bite your tongue...
squeak...

Or maybe Epsilon is being manipulated by the Russians or Americans with HAARP or some such weather modification energy machine.

And before anyone labels me a conspiracy theory crackpot, let me just say that with the way Epsilon has been thumbing its nose at physics, ANY theory is valid at this point.

Please, somebody prove me wrong!
wow crazy your name really talks about yourself(:
Strong Doubt on the US, Waves have been good though with Some Swell Showing in NC on Tuesday-Wed of last week
I know, but that can definitely also describe Epsilon...
Don't forget the Chineese, rumor has they have looked into weather control technology for a number of reasons. Atlantic hurricanes as good a testing ground as any.
I wasn't really being serious about the Chineese, though they have gained the most from this years hurricanes.
Thanks Dr Masters for the information and update.

I do not like the idea Epsilon is still with us after all of this time and it is heading for warmer water and going to curve back to SW...Not good. Sure hope finally that shear it is expected to get will do some good this time.
Hey bills, is your new roof finished? Bet you love it!
Now you can start with the Christmas Decorations, of which I hope don't get blown away in a week or so..(just kidding, that is my worse nightmare at this point!) I finished the tree last night and still must do the rest of the house inside and out during my days off this week. Hubby tired of not getting to put his car in garage because my 35 large Christmas boxes of decorations are all over the place! (Plus the girls have their boxes stored here also)
Will be in and out to check on Eppie and sure hope I hear some better news with my next check in .
Have a good afternoon.
Gamma
Thanks Dr. Masters. How is everyone today?
Why doesn't the NHC see the obvious, this is not weakening like a hurricane should so it NOT a hurricane. They can call it something else, like a harharicane. And say we don't track harharicane's. This will be the last adivsory on Epsilon.
Hello everyone
hi pensacola, all's well here and Epsilon just keeps churning along, looking strong in the satellite images - just waiting for the BIG turn to to the southwest to commence
i agree with you squeak, the storm seems to be shallow enough the "shear" doesn't even touch it, also a shallow storm requires much less ocean heat compared to a deep storm such as Katrina (really deep) or any other garden variety tropical cyclone. plus i think there are still some good arguments for this storm still being a hybrid, but anyways no matter what this definitely good thesis material.
great idea, timl2k5, but will ignoring Epsilon make it go away?
Yes! See Epsilon is just like a troll. Don't pay any attention to it and it will go away. The NHC is obviously paying too much attention to it, and the storm is quite enjoying it. :)
Hi 21!:-) How ya been?
Hey Weatherdude and Snowboy. Epsilon is crazy! I wonder what will happen after he turns!
I'm doing pretty good Weatherdude!! How about you?
23. dcw
Epsilon=Wilma reincarnated. It just won't die, and it'll be UBER when it reaches warm waters.

Look at the IR, she's a beauty right now.
21..I'm doing well. Work has been slow, but I'm not complaining about that :-)
Gamma.....nope can't do outdoor decorations this.. they have roof on/dried in so that water won't be able to get in (so he says- looks like we'll find out tomorrow with rain in the forecast), but inspectors need to check what he did Saturday, then they need to come back and do another step, then another and then tile last... I'm thinking it will take 2 months? (especially with materials in short supply).. We have significant interior damage so now that is next.. no Christmas lights this year :( ...

Hi 21...
Hello everyone, has anyone seen the new GFDL model curve to the SW and the back to the East?
convection is really picking up on the north and west sides, but does not seem to be wrapping around the southeast side
That's good Weatherdude (finally get some rest)!

Hey Billsfan - Didn't see you there :-)
Evil thought:
With Epsilon not knowing where to go or what to do, I'm thinking it'll still be around on the 25th. 8=0

Question: What is the longest lived Atlantic basin hurricane?
Could you guys define Baroclinic and Barotropic. Thanks
Hi all, just watched on TV a documentary on the Gulf Stream (the one that brings warm water from North Atlantic to Scandinavia). This ocean current is responsable for the "warm" climate in Helsinki (Finland), if compared to Yellow Knife, which is on the same latitude. It was mentioned, that in the last 50 years, the Gulf Stream current's ocean temperature has fallen 3-4 degrees Celcius, probably due to the greenhouse effect melting the Greenland and North Pole ice. Just wanted to mention this for those who are interested experts, though they probably already know :)
The longest lived atlantic tropical cyclone is 27 days, I think. But that was in late August-early September.
That "finger" of warm water that Epsilon's been riding aboard = Mother Nature's middle one.
Rank, the NHC was assuming there must be a warm water area because Eppy strengthened, but they KNOW it's over 20C now and it's still strengthening <3 <3 <3 <3 <3
hi LakeWorthFinn, there is indeed huge concern that one feature of global climate change will ironically be a harsh cooling of the northern European climate because of the impacts on the Gulf Stream of the melting polar and Greenland ice caps

on another note Colby, given that the record is 27 days how long has Epsilon been going so far?
Look at the latest visible loop...especially the last few frames before sunset...that's a pretty deep hole in the center, folks...this sucker is tropical, and doesn't appear to be going away any time soon...stay tuned!
Looking at the visible satalite image, almost looks like stadium effect is taking place. However I thought we only saw stadium effect in much larger and powerful storms eh?
38. iyou
Trouper - what sat are you looking at?
Epsilon is looking very sharp on the satellite images - my sense is that it has strengthened considerably over the past day, and it will be interesting to see the 4 pm NHC discussion/advisory
Trouper: Yup...like I've said before...this season has gone straight off the edge into the bizarro world...
Looks stronger than ever now. Center is very circular and convection is very stong almost around the entire enchilada. Convection continues to blow up around the northwest wall.
iyou, check out this link. Check out the visible loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html
43. iyou
Thanks Trouper!
snowboy: 90 mph at the next update, ya think???
FEW!!! (sigh) I just updated the Records had a ton of Fun with Epsilon Stuff
Is the shear on this storm comming from the east or the west? Because when you say its a westerly shear, if it were comming from the west, it looks as if shes built up a nice big convection barrier so that shear dont do nothing to her goodies.
hey TampaSteve those were excellent last frames before sunset - thanks for the heads up. Winds were 80 mph this morning, and yes I wouldn't be surprised to see 85-90 mph in 4 pm advisory. This hurricane does not look like it is weakening any time soon.
Trouper I see no signs that this storm is being disturbed by whatever shear may be out there
Sorry for all the questions...But on the Shortwave IR Loop, it looks like it goes from a weak storm to a stronger storm. I knw this sounds simple, but what is all the darker blue that has appeared in the last few frames. And is all that blue more convection or not? THanks

BB73
HURRICANE EPSILON ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST MON DEC 05 2005

...EPSILON SLOWING DOWN...EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWARD...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EPSILON WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 33.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.4 WEST OR ABOUT 510
MILES... 820 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

EPSILON HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 3 MPH ...
6 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN OT THE SOUTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12
TO 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 982 MB...29.00 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...33.7 N... 34.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...EAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 80 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 982 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER AVILA

check out the last line of this excerpt from the 4 pm Discussion:
EPSILON IS ALREADY SLOWING DOWN...APPARENTLY GETTING READY TO MAKE
THE SOUTHWARD TURN...MUCH ANTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO
SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE GFDL TURNS THE
CYCLONE EASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DECREASED THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE EASTWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. BY THEN EPSILON
SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...WE WOULD LIKE.
I think epsilon must somehow know what the NHC is predicting, then it goes and does the exact opposite just to make them look bad. Everyone keeps talking about this narrow corridor of low shear and whether or not epp will hit it. Would it be possible for someone to combine the shear forecasts and epps forecast track on one map for us to get a better idea of how close it might get. That will be critical for predicting the intensity.
How about this one...read the last sentence...heh heh...

000
WTNT44 KNHC 052035
TCDAT4
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005

THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE REMARKABLY WELL-ORGANIZED FOR A
HURRICANE AT SUCH HIGH LATITUDE IN DECEMBER. IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED
LARGE EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF CONVECTION...AND THE OUTFLOW IS
ESTABLISHED IN ALL QUADRANTS. EPSILON RESEMBLES ONE OF THESE
ANNULAR HURRICANES OR "TRUCK TIRE PATTERN" DESCRIBED IN THE
SCIENTIFIC LITERATURE. ALTHOUGH THIS CLASSIFICATION IS FOR
HURRICANES IN THE DEEP TROPICS...EPSILON HAS INDEED MAINTAINED ITS
INTENSITY...MORE THAN ANTICIPATED...LIKE THESE TYPE OF ANNULAR
HURRICANES. DVORAK ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70
KNOTS. ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIATED DURING THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER...EPSILON SHOULD WEAKEN AT A FASTER
PACE AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD AND
ENCOUNTERS STRONGER SHEAR. ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE 200
MB TEMPERATURE HAS BEEN THE ONLY ATMOSPHERIC PARAMETER CONTRIBUTING
POSITIVELY TO THE INTENSITY OF EPSILON FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS.

EPSILON IS ALREADY SLOWING DOWN...APPARENTLY GETTING READY TO MAKE
THE SOUTHWARD TURN...MUCH ANTICIPATED IN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE MOVES TO
SOUTHWEST COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE GFDL TURNS THE
CYCLONE EASTWARD AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DECREASED THE FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 72 HOURS TO COMPENSATE
FOR THE EASTWARD COMPONENT SUGGESTED BY THE GFDL. BY THEN EPSILON
SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW...WE WOULD LIKE.


FORECASTER AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/2100Z 33.7N 34.4W 70 KT
12HR VT 06/0600Z 33.5N 33.9W 65 KT
24HR VT 06/1800Z 32.0N 34.5W 60 KT
36HR VT 07/0600Z 30.5N 35.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 07/1800Z 29.0N 36.5W 30 KT
72HR VT 08/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 09/1800Z 24.0N 41.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/1800Z 22.5N 42.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW


$$
Heh, snowboy...we both noticed that, eh???
LOL TampaSteve - there have been more priceless quotes out of NHC on this storm than for any previous one that I'm aware of... another record for the 2005 season!
"...WE WOULD LIKE." - I bet they do, they're working overtime with these late show-ups, and would probably want to be home at Xmas. Hope the possible Zeta in the Caribbean will not form. Enough records have been broken already without it, and enough is enough!
Haha, the NHC has completely given up being professional with this little disc of insanity.
It is very bizzare to be reading posts here about a hurricane in the atlantic...and turning around, looking out my window at the reminants of our last snowfall...and the first flakes of what is forecasted to be another 4-8" of new snow. What a season 2005 has turned out to be...

Thanks, Dr. Masters for the analysis on why we had so many U.S. landfalling hurricanes in 2005. I would never have guessed that sea surface temps in the PACIFIC would have been so instrumental in influencing hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. And when you think about it...it's really amazing that when we are talking about warmer than normal sea surface temps...we are talking a mere 1-2 degrees...yet that has such a profound effect on the weather 4,000 miles to the east...which in turn influences.....etc...
Nj, what we're looking at in the pacific is very much like El Nino, in that a small difference in pacific surface temps affect global weather profoundly.

BLOG NEWS ALERT

Dr. Gray's 2006 forecast is out.

17 Named Storms
9 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes

O_O_O_O_O
Yup, Colby...amazing how everything is so interconnected...
oh boy... wow.. 5 major hurricanes?? Like this year, he'll probably have to do a mid-season revision, especially on the named storms..
Seems Epsilon is chasing its tail and coming back gaining strength. Itis just crazy
Oh, as a contrast, here's what they forecasted for this year a year ago:

11 Named Storms (~60% short)
6 Hurricanes (~65% short)
3 Major Hurricanes. (~60% short)

By the end of May, they showed:

15 Named Storms (~40% short)
8 Hurricanes (~40% short)
4 Major Hurricanes (~40% short)

By the fifth of August (and repeated on 2 Sep. and 3 Oct.):

20 Named Storms (~20% short)
11 Hurricanes (~18% short)
6 Major Hurricanes (~14% short)

This is just SCARY. They are forecasting SIX more named storms for next year than they did for this year O_O

Looks like next year will be a doozey!
Yep. Assuming the same error as last year, that would mean:

40 (OMG) Named Storms
21 (OMG) Hurricanes
12 (OMGGGGGGGGGGGGGG) Major Hurricanes

Let's hope to GOD he's closer than last year.
Ditto, Scary & OMG! on Gray's Forecast.
Wow, thats amazing. The predictions for 2005 are stunning compardes to what we saw this year.
oh come on, colby...

40 named storms is about as likely as a tropical storm forming north of lat 40 and hitting portugal or the canary islands...

never mind...
Convection wrapped all the way back around her/he
Quote:

40 (OMG) Named Storms
21 (OMG) Hurricanes
12 (OMGGGGGGGGGGGGGG) Major Hurricanes


What happens if the NHC runs out of the Greek Alphabet? 8=0
They wouldn't, LKC. The last storm if there was a season like that would be Upsilon (Greek storm #19, one letter left).
Whats up guys..........Very interesting.....17 storms........very possible........Dr. Gray is looking for a key, the pacific ocean warming, its only one......the whole earth has actions and reactions.....which are constant and they never stop.........Until you can take measurements on every scare mile of ocean, land, atmospheric conditions all the way up to 40000 feet....then you will only get about 50% of whats needed to understand the earth....its rotation.....how fast does it tilt from side to side.....we are getting just a little closer to the sun every year.....is the sun getting stronger, fluctuating, getting weaker.....so many varibles, I could go on all night........Anyone who guesses how many hurricanes will form has just as much chance of getting it right as anyone else......thats how complicated our earth is ............
I just noticed something on Epsilon. Every time it strengthens, a long tendril of convection extends northward to the cold front which passed it yesterday...perhaps it's oscillating between tropical and non?
yeah Trouper convection is indeed wrapped around - still can't believe they didn't increase the estimated winds in the 4 pm advisory, but they're the pros and we'll take their word for it
The regular names and Greek letters will cover up to 45 named storms...after that, I dunno...the NHC would probably just use numbers...Hurricane 2006-46, 2006-47, etc...
Colby, glad you noticed this too - I thought it was just me. Seems like Epsilon has been somehow drawing "energy" from the front.
Hmm i thought of this Harry Potter the boy who lived= Epslion the cane that lived.
I can see a little high level shear developing in the latest ifr loop - click on tropical forecast points- look at the 'L' on path projection as you watch the loop- can see high level cirrus heading NE (moving at a good clip).

Eastern side of eyewall getting buffetedright now.

(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html)

Can see a modest increase in shear - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8midshr.html

Although, if Ep makes it a few hundred miles south relatively intact, he will suffer less shear and warmer waters.....I think he has a chance to survive. The water temperature issue has me stumped. I wonder if the warmish temp layer is deep? Curious to know if there are any 3-d images of water temp gradients (in the Z direction)for the ocean out there?
Colby, that makes good sense. Since it is December and so far north, every time it takes on more tropical characteristics, it weakens, and every time it adds a little more extratropical characteristics, it strenghthens. That is very plausible.

And, about the forecast, OMG.
I noticed that afer 2004 everyone was talking about how it was once in a lifetime and how we'll never see one like that again. Then came 2005. With this in mind, my 2006 prediction is:

72 named storms
45 hurricanes
17 major hurricanes

Hopefully reverse psychology works on the weather too.
Here's some ocean temps milli. No, the warm water isn't very deep. I agree with Colby that it is part extratropical. I recall someone saying on this blog that subtropical hurricanes couldn't exist though. Another record for 2005.
Hey KShurricane, did you see my comments on your blog entry?
Hurricanechaser explained last night that this is mostly tropical, with a few subtropical characteristics.
hey melli shear or no shear, Epsilon is looking very perky and looking forward to the vacation trip to the southwest
Yeah I did. Thanks for the corrections. That's what I get for trusting CNN to give me the right info :+ Now I'm going back and looking at past hurricanes to work on refining the wind radius criterion. I'll post a final version later. Thanks for the comments though.
...and going...and going...and going...
Anytime.
The greek letter Epsilon...was part of some of the major party frats while I was in college....figure...last one to come around....and last one to leave...always obnoxious....

So any guesses on landfall for our unwanted friend do I dare say it?

Hurricane season 2006....

Hmmmmm South Florida 3
wow windnwaves yo know the people you are talking to are under the age of 18 lol
If Epsilon is still a tropical storm as of 4 am EST on Dec 10, he will tie the record for the longest lived storm this year. If he makes it to the next advisory at 10 am on December 10th, he will be the longest lived tropical cyclone of 2005 (continuously at tropical storm strength or above)

Do you think Epsilon will make it?
i do say if peple want to post their predictions i think you should leave the people of the nhc out of this really why dont you go in there and do it if ya think they dont know what they are tlaking about.
ill give it a 50 50
Maybe if the NHC runs out of letters we can nominate ours and they can draw it out of a hat....."and the winner of the next name is .......(drum roll please)......Biff....welcome tropical storm biff...."


NHC reserves the right to place the cone of error in your town whether you nominate your name or not.
Poll on my blog--will Epsilon make it to 10 am December 10th and become the longest lived tropical cyclone of the year? Or make it to 4 am December 11th to become the longest lasting tropical cyclone in December ever--beating hurricane Lili in 1984?

StSimons, yes.
10 of the last 11 seasons have been more active than average
Epsilon is a she, as are all hurricanes
Actually, 9 StSimons. 1 Below, 1 Average, 9 Above.

"every year it's "this will be an overactive season". they are almost always wrong, 5 out of 7 times since i moved to FL. it's like the drunken roommate i had, who would watch jeopardy and shout "truman capote!" as the answer to every question. he was right once in a while too."

That's because Florida has been exceptionally lucky, and that luck ran out last year (Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne) and this year (Katrina, Tammy, Dennis, Rita, Wilma). So really, 9 storms in 7 years is pretty active, don't you think. The NHC is a lot more professional than that, give them some credit. Now, as the founder of an amateur forecasting site, I am the first to say that the NHC is wrong sometimes, or even a lot, but I'd love to see you do much better.
Weakening again *rolls eyes*

So some more strength in 6 hours, lmao.
Trouper...Dennis=she? Transsexual hurricanes?
Colby, actually the only year with less than 12 storms since 1995 was 1997. So 10 of the last 11 years have been above average.
what up all


17 Named Storms
9 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes

so you are all telling me that next year hurricane year will be like this year right or this a little bit more then that right yet me no
Epsilon looks the weakest it has in a couple days, very open on southeast side.
Well Colby, you caught me. All greek letter storms are ladies.
:D @ Trouper.

Epsilon is just in one of it's phases, look at the deepest convection of its life on the NW.
Windnwaves, the last 30 years have been extremely kind to Florida. Sorry, but climatologically, it's time to pay the piper.
Colby, you hit it on the head. StSimons, give it time, the convection should gradually wrap back around. I call still a hurricane at 9 PM CST.
Good evening, I see we still have Eppie out there, not weakening at all. just read all of the post (Hello everyone). I am sad that this storm has not gone away yet.
I thank you all for keeping us updated. I will check back in later.
Thanks and hello to all!
Gamma
Hey everyone,

I was just looking throug the days blogs to catch up on what I missed...alot of interesting observations and opinions.:)

If I'm not mistaken, The San Cireico (mispelling?)Hurricane of 1899 that devastated Puerto Rico where it received its historical name and which also battered the N.C. Outer Banks has tied Hurricane Ginger from 1971 for longest days as a Tropical cyclone which is 28 upon the HRD reanalysis project.

Regarding Epsilon, I am very confident as I proposed yesterday that Epsilon hasn't been a purely Tropical system but has retained some Extratroical characteristics that allowed it to feed off some baroclonic energy from the passing frontal zone when it rapidly intensified yesterday and as Colby and someone else so well pointed out earlier today.:)

Right now, Epsilon is entraining some dry air into its inne core and is eroding the convection on its SE side. There were also a couple of instances late last night where some dry air would begin to get closer to the inner core but less than an hour later, Epsilon was able to mix it out and rebuild the convection completely around its center. For me, I look for a 3 to 6 hour persistant trend to make a definate forecast. For the past 24 hours Epsilon would begin a weakening phase for about an hour followed by a restrengthening phase for 2 to 3 hours. These fluctuations continued until the early morning hours when Epsilon finally began a sustained reintensification phase that persisted for more than 8 hours or so before I went to bed about 11 am this morning. Now, she is beginnng to once again show signs of definate weakening, moreso than at any point in the past 24 hours. This has only occured in the past hour or so. Therefore, I would see if this trend persists for another 3 hours or so. The question now is whether it can mix out that dry air within this time period. If not, look for some definate continued weakening.




windnwaves, next year there are likely to be more hurricanes than in a "normal" year (normal being defined based on the number of years that we've been observing them). Florida is a hurricane-prone state, and thus the prediction does not bode well for Florida even though it is impossible at this time to predict how many or few will actually hit Florida.
It looks like it's entraining dry air into the SE quadrant...could be the beginning of the end of Epsilon...then again, maybe not...
I think it will, given the strong NW quad convection. This storm won't die until it sees higher 200hPa temps as it moves SW.
NEED HELP! lol is Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) points the same as ACE?????????
hey hurricanechaser good to hear from you and good analysis - convection is very strong on the NW side, but lots of dry air on the SE side means she could be in trouble
We've seen this before. Her southern portion break down then convection wraps around it from the west. Within a couple or maybe 3 hours she should have full convection again.

BB73
No. NTC=% of normal. ACE=energy used by storms.
Another possible variable that I believe could develop that doesn't bode as well for Epsilon than the previous 24 hours or so, which is the decrease in its forward motion consistent with its expectant turn to the South and SW. We all know it's moving over cool sea surface temperatures which han't precluded sustained development because a system thats not fully Tropical as myself and others have stated doesn't simply feed off the latent heat derived from the warm sea surface temperatures we are all so commonly used to.

The reason I'm a little concerned by its decrease in forward motion allows it to cool off the waters beneath it ever so slighly and it seems to have been out running the dry air and shear during the past dsy and a half.

Now, this dry air is penetrating its central core for the first time in more than 24 hours. However, I refer back to my previous post stated Epsilon has been able to mix out some dry air previously and redeveloped deep convection around its center. As Colby noted, there is still some deep convection in the NW quadrenr which has consistently been wrapped back around Epsilon in a 2 to 3 hour period following an hour or so of weakening.

Therefore, it's about whether or not this current weakening trend wil persist for a 3 to 6 hour period or if Epsilon will mix out that dry air and continue these consistent fluctuations in intensity as noted throughtout the past 24 hours.
Hey snowboy,

Thanks and it's nice to see you again as well.

I was enjoying reading your excellent observations when I was catching up on this blog as well.

Some Humor: Christmas Carols for the Insane

Schizophrenia --- "Do You Hear What I Hear?"



Multiple Personality Disorder --- "We Three Kings Disoriented Are"



Dementia --- "I Think I'll be Home for Christmas"



Narcissism --- "Hark the Herald Angels Sing about Me"



Mania --- "Deck the Halls and Walls and House and Lawn and Streets and Stores and Offices and Towns and Cars and Busses and Trucks and Trees and Fire Hydrants and..."



Paranoia --- "Santa Claus is Coming to Get Me"



Borderline Personality Disorder --- "Thoughts of Roasting on an Open Fire"



Personality Disorder --- "You Better Watch Out: I'm Gonna Cry, I'm Gonna Pout, Maybe I'll Tell You Why"



Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder ---"Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells, Jingle Bells..."
Actually, Snowboy and Trouper make excellent points and its a matter of which trend will become dominate in the next 3 hour period. Based upon Epsilons history over the past day and a half, it hasn't weakened for a period longer than 2 hours before it would regenerate from the NW and wrap convection back around its center and reintensify for another 3 to 4 hour period.
Hey All! looks like she's about to take that sw dive!

how 'bout that clips
Thats what I though But someone Screwed up on Numbers
I'm Currently Doing 2 and 3 Year Consecutive Records so LOL ITS CRAZY!!!! I'll have a different section for that

Hey hurricanechaser wanna help LOL
ROTFLMBO Colby! Good mood relaxer!
*grin* For once, the LBAR isn't the worst...check out the CLP :D
Hey Cory,

Sure, I'll do my best to find a few.:)
Here's my Chrismas ha ha for ya'll~
'Twas the night before Frances
When all through the state
Not a gas pump was pumping
Not a store open late

All the plywood was hung
On the windows with care
Knowing that a hurricane
Soon would be there

The children were ready
With flashlights in hand
While bands from the hurricane
Covered over the land

And mamma with her Mag-Lite
And I in my cap
Had just filled the bath tub
For flushing our crap

When out on the lawn
There arose such a clatter
I sprang from the closet
To see what was the matter

The trees on the fence
And the neighbor's roof torn
Gave the fear of us dying
In this terrible storm

With a little wind gust
So lively and quick
I remembered quite clearly
Our walls weren't brick

More rapid than eagles
Her courses they came
And she whistled, and wafted
And surged all the same
Off shingles! Off sidings!
Off rooftops! Off power!
Down trees! Down fences!
Down trailers! Down towers!

In the center of Florida
She continued to maul
Screaming Blow Away!
Blow Away! Blow Away All!

As wind ripped and tossed
The debris through the sky
I peeked out the shutters
At cars floating by

So go to the safe-room
My family did do
With a portable radio
And batteries too

And then, in a twinkling
I heard on the set
The end was not coming
For a few hours yet!

As I calmed down the kids
And was turning around
Through the window it came
With a huge crashing sound

A tree branch it was
All covered in soot
The wind blew it smack-dab
On top of my foot

A bundle of twigs
Now lay in a stack
And my living room looks
Like it was under attack

The wind - how it howled!
The storm - very scary!
Myself and the family
Were all too unwary
The dangers of hurricanes
Are serious, you know
They are taken for granted
As Frances did show

With the winds dying down
And the danger beneath
I noticed my tool shed
Was missing its sheath

So I grabbed my last tarp
And nailed it on down
Then I got in my car
And I headed to town

The traffic was awful
And stores had no ice
My five gallon cooler
Would have to suffice

Generators were scarce
Not one left in town
There were trees on the roads
And power lines down

FEMA was ready
With people to work
Electrical companies
Came in from New York

And in the midst of
This peculiar routine
Another storm emerged
Named Hurricane Jeanne

I sprang to the car
And gave my family a whistle
Then away we all went
Like a Tomahawk missile

You could hear us exclaim
As we drove out of sight
"The hell with this place,
Vermont seems just right!"
One thing I've just noticed...strictly based on my own personal opinion...I see that we have most of the very best and most knowledable people in this blog right now al at one time.

I am enjoying reading all your posts.:)
no no lol you don't have to I'm doing well using a few sources It's All Good Just not going to get any Accordion in today
haha I feel Honored chaser
Gee whiz, hurricanechaser, if you mean me, thanks! You ain't too shabby yourself! :)
LOLOL Skye and Colby, thanks for some entertaining diversions
Hey Cory,

I could be mistaken but I think Dennis is the most intense (946 mb)"July" hurricane to ever make landfall in the U.S.
*bows*
bows** as well YES i think so!
hey chaser we're all flattered but there's some illustrious folks not here just now who are often big contributors including atmos, stormydee, DocNDSwamp, ProgressivePulse, palmettobug53, LakeworthFinn, lefty, hurigo, FLCrackerGirl, oriondarkwood, turtlehurricane, weatherwannabe, STORMTOP, and I'm sure I've left out lots of others -

fact is this is one excellent group of weather watchers who are working with and learning from one another. So excellent that WU provides a place for us all to meet and communicate!
Dennis was the strongest July hurricane to hit he US. I believe it was also the strongest hurricane in the atlantic basin in July. The 2nd point could be wrong, someone clarify if you got an answer.
140. melli
You can just see the shear starting to tear Eps eye out. Ep better boogie south if he wants to survive. The low level circulation will be reborn and give me something to look at....eye candy...:)
It was Before Emily I have those in the Records but not the Landfall one
LOl...thanks..of course I mean you Tony and snowboy, and many others on right now who know who they are.:)

I just sit back many times and observe each of your excellent observations, informative opinions, knowledge of hurricane history, abilities to decifer all the forecasting tools that the NHC uses, and the list goes on and on and on...

and througout this remarkable season, I've noticed over and over again how so many who were complete novices have developed a vast amount of knowledge in an extremely short period of time because so many of you ave taken your time and share your knowledge, experience, and most importantly your time to help others with their understanding of this complex and inexact science of tropical meteorology.

Honestly, this has been one of the most enjoyable aspects of joining this community roughly three months ago.

The reason I chose this time to express my personal appreciation is because I see so many of those in this blog right now.

I need to go take care of a few things for awhile. I will try to updae my blog a little later and stop bacv in and say hello to those here at that time.

If I don't get a chance to see you on here later, I hope each of you have a great night.:)




















946mb though it was a Cat.3 right almost Cat. 4 at Landfall
Just Putting the Finishing Touches to the 2-year And 3-year Consecutive List WOW that was Fast
what up all


17 Named Storms
9 Hurricanes
5 Major Hurricanes

so you are all telling me that next year hurricane year will be like this year right or this a little bit more then that right yet me no
Check out the direction Epsilon is moving now. Appears as though we have started the Southward turn. One question I want to bring up that might be contributing to the current weakening of this storm is: It seems as if she is just re-adjusting to her new southern direction. The convection on the southern end of the storm keeps breaking down. And now that she is moving south might contribute further to her continued breaking down. She was moving Eastward for much of her trip and the convection from the west would quickly wrap around the southern gap. Now, she is moving Southward which might expose her even further. We'll see if the general trend of: Gap forms in southern quadrant and convenction from west fills gap now that she is infact making her Southward movement. Next 3 hours for this storm are crucial in my opinion at the moment.

BB73
So true snowboy.
i agree melli that Epsilon looks like (s)he's in trouble, but we've seen this many times before, and each time the circulation closes around the eye again - as chaser said, we have to see a longer-term trend (say 6-8 hours) befoe concluding that Epsilon is REALLY losing strength and not just teasing us...
KRWZ, next year has the potential to be rough. Just potential right now.
Yes Cory...her official categorization at landfall is listed as a 120 mph strong category 3. The 946 mb pressure is at the top end of a category 3 as well.
ooops.I meant his (Dennis)
I want to see Epsilon weaken for at least 6 hours before I'm sold.
Dennis was the exact same intensity at landfall as Ivan, in both winds and pressure.
That is actually lower than the final tally for 2005 (final? we are still counting), but significantly higher than thier prediction for 2005. I personally think next year will be tammed down a little bit as far as frequency. Good or Bad? If you look back on this year, because there were so many storms simultaneously, it actually limited the potential of some of the storms.
This may not help me win any populariity contests but I will go on record to say that I'm hoping for that reintensification phase once again myself. I don't believe Epsilon would be any significant threat to any land areas regardless of her future intensity and this is why I want it to hang in there. I would like to see it help 2005 break the record for most storm days, highest ACE, etc.

With this being the case, I'm kinda concerned about Epsilons ability to fight off the increasing shear that Trouper so well noted that is currently having on Epsilons inner core. On the other hand, you touched on my sentiments very well snowboy when you said we need to look for a 6 hour or so trend. Honestly, if this definate weakening trend lasts for another 6 hours or so, Epsilon will not be able to maintain hurricane intensity and I believe it will most likely continue to gradually weaken ,even though it will move over warmer waters... So I strongly agree that the next 6 to 8 hours is crucial for Epsilons future intensity.
DaAntiCyclone Sparked Great Interest In Me and here is the Last 2 Hours of my Day -------- IM TIRED!!

-2 Year Consecutive Total of ACE (259)
-2 Year Consecutive Total of NTC (463) and counting
-Tied with 1950-51 for the 2 Year Consecutive Total of Major Hurricanes (13)
-2 Year Consecutive Total of Hurricanes (24) (Old Record was 21 in 1886-87)
2 Year Consecutive Total of Tropical Storms (41)
(Old Record was 32 most recently in 1995-96)
2 Year Consecutive Total of Tropical Cyclones (45)
2 Year Consecutive Total of Hurricane Landfalls (11 if Cindy 2005 is upgraded)
* Two-Year Consecutive Major Hurricane Landfalls (7)
(Old Record was 5 in 1954-55)
- 2 Year Consecutive Total of Named Storm Days (209.25)
- 2 Year Consecutive Total of Hurricane Days (94.25)
- 2 Year Consecutive Total of Intense Hurricane Days (38.75)
- 2 Year Consecutive Total of Florida Hurricanes (5)
- 2 Year Consecutive Total of Florida Major Hurricane Landfalls (5) (Old Record was 3 in 1949-50)
- 2 Year Consecutive Total of Storms Affecting Florida (7) (Tammy and Ophelia dont count as landfalls)
- 2 Year Consecutive Total of Most Retired Names (9ish) (Have to wait till Spring)

AND

-3 Year Consecutive Total of ACE (637)
-3 Year Consecutive Total of NTC (651) and Counting
- Tied with 1949-51 and 1950-52 for the 3 Year Consecutive Total of Major Hurricanes (16)
(ties record in 1949-51 and 1950-52)
- 3 Year Consecutive Total of Hurricanes (30)
(Old Record was 27 in 1886-88)
- 3 Year Consecutive Total of Tropical Storms (57)
(Old Record was 43 most recently in 2002-04)
- 3 Year Consecutive Total of Tropical Cyclones (61)
- 3 Year Consecutive Total of Hurricane Landfalls (15)
- 3 Year Consecutive Total of Major Hurricane Landfalls (7)
- 3 Year Consecutive Total of Named Storm Days (280.25)
- 3 Year Consecutive Total of Hurricane Days (126.25)
- 3 Year Consecutive Total of Intense Hurricane Days (55.75)
- 3 Year Consecutive Total of Most Category 5 Storms in 3 Years (6)
- 3 Year Consecutive Total of Most Retired Names (11ish) (Have to wait till Spring)
Appears the LLC of Eppy is Already made the turn. You can see the covection going off center a bit, windfield is also adjusting.
158. dcw
Epsilon's coming back, but differently this time. Look how tight this new band is...is it going pinhole?!?!
I forgot to Eat cause I got So Involved
You're absolutely right Tony about Ivan from last season and they both impacted many of the same areas. Although, Ivan was far more destructive as a result of its huge windfield , storm surge, and its flloding in the NC mountainous areas. Not to mention, I believe it's number 2 all time as a tornado producing storm behnd Francis?
I'm Pretty SUre ALL of them are Records
You can see the outflow setting up in the SE quad
Next 3 hours are big for this storm. I think the new direction she is headed in will tell the tale of whether she lives to see the warmer waters of the tranquil south, or die a hideous death in the frigid waters of the central atlantic. YARRR!
Hey cory,

I believe the two year total for florida direct landfalling hurricanes is six (Charley, Francis, Jeanne, Dennis, Katrina, and Wilma). Although the NHC lists NW fl. panhandle as a direct hit by Ivan as well which would make 7.
Dcw, I WILL SCREAM IF I SEE THE WORDS "PINHOLE EYE" EVER, EVER, EVER, EVER AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It would be rather amazing if Eppy can reorganize after changing direction.
yes, ivan 2nd with 117
~sweet work snowboy:)
I'm really starting to wonder about Epsilon. Given the stall this evening, if it can move slowly southwest it might give the shear time to relax, allowing a Major Hurricane Epsilon over warmer waters...O.O
Ok guys, I need to go eat and do a few other things.

I hope each of you have a great night .:)

Thanks Skyepony for confirming that for me.:)
if they say hurricane grace in the movie that had 140kt winds would make that maybe a cat 5 storm and am i seeing winds of this 100mph cat 2

and in that movie how high where the sea i was think they where 100ft high or 50 to 90ft high sea
Ivan is #1 with 123 tornadoes, Frances in #3 behind Beulah, but I don't remember the exact number.
KRWZ, The Perfect Storm was in late October, and wasn't a Hurricane.
what? wikipedia is wrong? Frances 1st with 123 (1 took of the roof of the barn my ponys were in).
174. haydn
Hello....After following the 2005 season, I finally decided to register. ... After Epsilon I agree with the some that there might be one more storm. Also, if storms and depressions are counted the Atlantic basin has produced more storms than the western pacific. I never thought I would see this happen. What an interesting year. The pacific season started with Kulap and now is at Bolaven. 25 counting 2 depressions ...Atlantic, 29 counting 3 depressions....I saw Dr. Gray's prediction of 17 storms for next year. I think there will be more than 17.
did The Perfect Storm and Hurricane GRACE come to lol to be come one big storm so yes it was a hurricane
Hey Tony and Skypony,

Thanks for the help.

I just found the record for most tornado producing hurricanes.

Francis 123
Ivan 117
Beukah 115.

I was mistaken when I included Ginger to be tied at most tropical cyclone days by a single storm. It is now San Cirioco (mispelled I know) hurricane of 1899 with 28 by itself. Ginger is now number two with 27.25.

Heres an awesome link full of individual storm records.:)



Link
LOL..Skyepony..you beat me to the link.:)
Tehe chaser~ that's been one of my favorites for the facts all season long. BBL
Hey Tony... I should mention that post analysis increased Francis total to 123 which moved her past Ivan into the number one spot..she was orginally behing Beulah so I can see where that came from.:)

Without that reanalysis, your order is correct.
Perhaps this is the begining of the weakening stage the NHC has been predicting since last week. The circular eye is now much more ragged. Dry air continues to filter into the SE quad. On the other hand the other cloud tops are increasing on the other 2/3 of Epislon and still may wrap around on the weak SE side. Lets watch and see.
I just found it a couple of nights ago trying to help Cory.:)

I was really missing out.:)
Thanks hurricanechaser, I was just about to correct myself. Boy, have I been off my game lately.

Colby, I see what you mean about the eye getter smaller.
did The Perfect Storm and Hurricane GRACE come to lol to be come one big storm so yes it was a hurricane
Excellent observations Matilda..my thoughts precisely...look for another 3 to 6 hour trend.:)

I need to go eat. LOL

Goodnight everyone.
KRWZ, The Perfect Storm SHREDDED Hurricane Grace and absorbed her moisture.
186. haydn
I've been watching the eye too. ....anyone think records for hurricane days and named storm days will be broken...
Colby, what intensity did the models initialize with tonight?
Well, maybe Epsilon is finally giving up. For the first time in several days there's no eye, either she's replacing it or dying.
that mean i be come one big storm right?
65kt.



Now there's a pretty storm. A Category 5 southern hemisphere system two years ago, resembles Emily.
high high where the winds in that photo that you this post and how big was the eye
Good because current C.I. # is 41./67.5 kts.

And...

I AM GOING TO HAVE A HURRICANE ON MY BIRTHDAY!!!!!!!!

C.I. numbers
NICE PIC what storm was that
That was of a southern Indian ocean storm, the unfortunate island to the left is Madagascar. At that point winds were 165mph.
My God Looks like Godly Hurricane Wilma
Was that the one from a couple winters ago? Didn't that hit right around Christmas?
and how big was the eye
Madagascar oh that Poor Island 98% Deforested Can't Even Imagine oh god Damn Tree Killers though 98% I mean thats Nuts
Snowman, are you sure it is Madagascar with 98% of the forests removed? I know that is Haiti's percentage. Do you possibly have a link?
I will say this, that storm had a lot better outflow than Emily.
I think you're thinking of Haiti, Snowman. There's a lot more trees than that on Madagascar, notice how green it is.
I don't know the name. Search for "2003-2004 southern hemisphere hurricane season" on wikipedia.
Epsilons eye is re-closed, much smaller than it was...down to maybe 10nmi.

Here's Cyclone Zoe (south Pacific) with winds of 155kt(185mph) and a pressure of an estimated 879:

Cyclone Gafilo March 2004 (my timing was way off)

Wikipedia article
Check this out:



Those are two storms. The one at the top left is a Category 4 Cyclone Olaf, and at the bottom right is a weakening Cyclone Nancy.
Any pics of Tip available?
That was an absolutely beautiful storm.
Here is a link to a pic of Tip:

Link
Yes I answered my own question.
Google images for "typhoon tip". Unfortunately, satellites sucked at the time, and Tip actually wasn't that pretty. Still...wow.
Alright, who spilled paint on the satellite?

GFDL is back on the SSW course.
213. haydn
I just found this link http://www.srh.weather.gov/srh/jetstream/tropics/tip.htm
Would have to say that looks rather weak compared to the latest images posted on the blog lol.
Thanks Haydn. I think we posted the same link, but thanks anyways!
I would certainly hope so, given that Epsilon is a Cat 1 and all the posted images were 4-5s...
now the nhc really have to be sensible and downgrade her to a 65mph ts
Well, looks like convection is going to wrap its way around old Epsilon once again.

Does anyone know the statistics for the storms in the pacific and indian oceans? Named storms in the Atlantic Basin and Atlantic ocean have been numerous beyond recognition, however, has the same been the case for the rest of the tropical cyclonic world?
Hardly, Supercell. She just closed the eye off again, and we'll see another boost before morning.
Supercell, satellites still say hurricane and Epie is really putting up an epic fight.

Floater IR loop
Nope. EPac has been average, WPac is a bit below.
i dont care if it has a pretty little eye or not. there is almost no deep convection in the eastern semicircle whatsoever. she is being sheared and brought back to earth by the cool seas. she has finally stopped surprising us.
223. haydn
Trouper415.... do you mean the totals for this year? I know the ones for the pacific, but not for the rest of the basins. As I stated earlier so far the Western Pacific has a total of 25 including two depressions.
What's with the rndom bolding, Tornado?
But the deep convection IS starting to wrap back around the eye. You just watch, it will be a hurricane for probably at least 12 more hours.
Yeah I know Colby, just funny after looking at images of Epsillon for the past three days, then looking at those images, then back at Epsillon.
Epie, epic (horrible pun).
i understand, but that happens in tropical depressions as well (just not around an eye, instead a broad center). LOOK AT THE TRENDS OF THE DVORAK NUMBERS. she is fading
Supercell, you're definetly speaking too soon.

NEVER say the 2005 hurricane season will stop suprising us, or you'll get a Cat 5 in Febuary.
I'm Sorry Madagascar is 86% Deforested not 98% But That's Still ExtrEMEly BAD Haiti is 98% Deforested
haydn thanks. I was just wondering if the storm totals for this year are as blow-up in the rest of the oceans as they are in the Atlantic.
You said this last night.
Perhaps, Cell. Or perhaps she'll put on another massive burst and be an 85mph cane again in the morning.
lol colby we know that wont happen but i see your point. however, i think you can agree that THE OVERALL 6 HOUR TREND is decreasing organization.
10PM out, still a 75mph 'cane.
We all could have said she was all but gone numerous times in the past few days supercell, however she has continued to endure and continues to find sources of energy.
no torn, i said the nhc would lower the winds at 10pm to 75mph, which they did. i also mentioned that THIS COULD BE THE START OF THE GRADUAL WEAKENING. it was short term weakening and has been fluctuating in strength all day.
now that would a nic way to stat out the new hurricane year a Cat 5 in Febuary
You mentioned the GFDL Colby. That is one heck of a storm up by Greenland on Dec11.
No, supercell, YOU know that won't happen. I can tell you're using wishful thinking, and that is all well and good, but (I WANT A HURRICANE ON MY BIRTHDAY) we have been surprised way more than once with this storm, and its organization is starting to increase AGAIN.
And the overall twelve hour trend and all common sense the night before the 85mph was the same. For now, wait.
242. haydn
Troupre415.... From what I've read, the Pacific is supposed to be the most active followed bt the Atlantic and E Pacific. Second place is usually determined by the El Nino cycle.
i assure all of you that the current 1 hr (if that) organization is temporary. she will be a ts by 5am, latest 11am. no chance of holding on another 12 hrs
I cannot recall the last time the Atlantic was more active than the Western Pacific.
weaking has begun 75 mph and moving SE 3mph
12 hours would be 10 AM EST.
GOD **** YOU I MEANT AST. THAT IS THE TIME THEY DO ADVISORIES IN. PLEASE DONT LOOK FOR EVERY OPPORTUNITY TO GET ON MY CASE.
excerpt from 10 pm advisory:
REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...33.3 N... 33.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTHEAST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 986 MB.
If it was global warming why wasn't W Pacific, E Pacific, Indian Ocean South Pacific hyper active.
It's never BEEN more active than the west pacific, Tornado.
I REALLY was not trying to get on the case with the time. And please, if it is a TS at 4 AM EST, feel free to flood my mailbox with hate letters.
now that would a nic way to start out the new hurricane year a Cat 5 in Febuary


cool it all what get back to the hurricane now ok
Supercell....wtf?

And Matila, that's why it isn't Global Warming :D
I'll be happy to, Tornado :D
torn, remind me what day it is tomorrow. what age will you be? why do you have to nitpick? i have not sent any hate mail to you or any others. i am simply asking you to act a little more sensibly about what you accuse me of
tornadoty feel free to flood my mailbox with hate letters.

lol that funny
Hey everyone,

Just wanted to check in with the 10 PM EST update which has Epsilon holding on to 75 mph minimal hurricane intensity which is a realistic and accurate estimae in my opinion.

I'm confused about this quote...

Posted By: supercell216 at 2:38 AM GMT on December 06, 2005.

now the nhc really have to be sensible and downgrade her to a 65mph ts

Why do you think Epsilon should have been downgraded to a 65 mph ts?

There is no evidence of that dramatic of a weakening as of yet. The Dvorak estimates have naturally decreased but are still consistent with a 75 mph hurricane. In addition, there is still enough organization and convection close enough to the eyewall to support that intensity as well. I respectfully disagree that the NHC downgrading it at the 10 PM EST advisory would be sensible. Don't worry they'll get their chance soon enough.
Supercell, I'm tired. So... (olive branch extended).

Tomorrow's my birthday. I will be 16. I'm just really cranky. I apologize.
ok cool it you too
The convection comma-shaped to the west is a siguature of an extratropical-ish storm, right? But isn't the shear coming from the west, which would blow the convection (or at least the cloud tops) back inward?
*Throws olive tree at supercell*

:D
Here's a good question?

What was the most active year, in terms of number of tropical systems in the Western Pacific.

When does statistics begin counting for next hurricane season.

Rememember Western Pacific season can run year round.
This may very well be a new type of storm. Not tropical, subtropical or extratropical. What is it? Who knows.
May I also suggest there is no need to use DR. Masters blog to curse at one another.

We all have a right to our opinions and perceptions as to what's going on with Epsilon.

It may not still be a classified hurricane at the 4 AM EST advisory but it certainly was and should be at this last advisory. Just my humble opinion.
265. haydn
The latest discussion is up on the NHC website. I am not going to make any predictions about the intensity, but the NHC is more certain about weakening. Goodnight.
Colby, please stop trying to cause trouble. Thanks! :)
dont try me colby. not in the mood. and do you have a problem with my EDUCATED GUESS THAT YOU KEEP HARPING ON ABOUT, hurricanechaser?
Just for the record Supercell...that was a geniune question not an attempt to be sarcastic..we all take things personally from time to time. we all know I have.LOL:)
The western pacific record for named storms is thirty-six.
tornadoty happy birthday to you happy birthday to you live in a zoo lol happy birthday to you

just jokeing you do not live in a zoo
It was a joke...sheesh :D
here's that NHC discussion, which can be summarized as "Epsilon will weaken soon, and this time we really mean it!":
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON DEC 05 2005

WE HAVE SAID THIS BEFORE AT TIMES DURING THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS...
ONLY TO HAVE EPSILON MAKE A COMEBACK THE FOLLOWING MORNING... BUT
EPSILON REALLY DOES NOT APPEAR AS STRONG THIS EVENING AS IT DID
THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP CONVECTION HAS LOST SOME CONSOLIDATION AND
THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE ELONGATED NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE SIMILAR TO BEFORE...
MOSTLY 65 KT WITH ANOTHER AT 77 KT... BUT NOW ALL OF THE T-NUMBERS
CORRESPOND TO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 65 KT. AFTER MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR MOST OF THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS... EPSILON
NOW SEEMS TO HAVE BEGUN THE TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 135/3... AND VERY RECENTLY IT
MIGHT NOT HAVE MOVED MUCH AT ALL.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALL AGREE EPSILON WILL BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWARD
VERY SOON AND THEN MOVE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE BUILDS TO ITS WEST. ESPECIALLY GIVEN
THE APPARENT TURN IN PROGRESS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GENERALLY
FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO WITH CONFIDENCE. OCEAN TEMPERATURES STEADILY
INCREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK... BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT
LIKELY COOPERATE IN PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH EPSILON CAN
SURVIVE VERY LONG AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. SOON EPSILON WILL NO
LONGER BE EMBEDDED IN THE DEEP WESTERLY STEERING CURRENT OF THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS... AND BY ABOUT 36 HOURS IT WILL PROBABLY BEGIN
WEAKENING FAIRLY QUICKLY. BY THAT TIME STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
TO THE WEST OF A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHOULD SHEAR
EPSILON... TO PIECES IF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL DEPICTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION ARE ANY INDICATION. EVEN THE GFDL FORECASTS THE
REMNANT LOW TO DISSIPATE BY 120 HOURS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE HAS NOT
PERFORMED WELL DURING EPSILON THUS FAR... IN PART DUE TO A LACK OF
MANY SYSTEMS LIKE THIS IN THE DEVELOPMENTAL DATABASE. SHIPS
CONTINUES TO INSIST ON STEADY WEAKENING... WHICH STILL MIGHT NOT
HAPPEN DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS OR SO... BUT SHIPS PROBABLY HAS
THE RIGHT IDEA BEGINNING IN ABOUT 36 HOURS ONCE THE SHEAR REALLY
KICKS IN. SO EPSILON'S DAYS APPEAR TO BE NUMBERED... WITH THAT
NUMBER PROBABLY BEING LESS THAN FIVE... AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST ONLY HOLDS ON TO A REMANT LOW THROUGH 96 HOURS. OTHERWISE
THE PACE OF WEAKENING IN THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/0300Z 33.3N 33.8W 65 KT
12HR VT 06/1200Z 32.3N 33.7W 60 KT
24HR VT 07/0000Z 30.7N 34.5W 55 KT
36HR VT 07/1200Z 29.3N 35.7W 40 KT
48HR VT 08/0000Z 27.8N 37.0W 30 KT
72HR VT 09/0000Z 25.0N 39.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 10/0000Z 22.5N 41.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED
where's the question, chaser? dont see much asking going on
maybe for you colby
I can see all the gray-haired men at the NHC pulling out each hair one-by-one with this storm.
hmm..let me ask why do take offense by being sarcastic..with the Educated Guess comment... please explain to me where I belittled you..I was simply asking why you think the storm should be a 65 mph ts?
have to agree with NHC that Epsilon is not looking as good now as a few hours ago, BUT latest floater images show heroic attempt to wrap convection back around the eye...
all come on now can we all play nic?
chaser, there's no need to try and fool me here again. i know you believe that anyone that disagrees with you is belittling you, so please dont give me the innocent excuse.
What do you call this? highlighted in bold...you remind me an awful lot of someone who gets an attitude if they perceive a possible attack (which this weasn't) or possibly disagrees respectfully.

Posted By: hurricanechaser at 3:01 AM GMT on December 06, 2005.

Hey everyone,

Just wanted to check in with the 10 PM EST update which has Epsilon holding on to 75 mph minimal hurricane intensity which is a realistic and accurate estimae in my opinion.

I'm confused about this quote...

Posted By: supercell216 at 2:38 AM GMT on December 06, 2005.

now the nhc really have to be sensible and downgrade her to a 65mph ts

Why do you think Epsilon should have been downgraded to a 65 mph ts?

There is no evidence of that dramatic of a weakening as of yet. The Dvorak estimates have naturally decreased but are still consistent with a 75 mph hurricane. In addition, there is still enough organization and convection close enough to the eyewall to support that intensity as well. I respectfully disagree that the NHC downgrading it at the 10 PM EST advisory would be sensible. Don't worry they'll get their chance soon enough.
i dont have an attitude. i have a problem with people ganging up and getting on my case. that doesnt belong on planet earth
ok folks, I'm out of here - will check back in in awhile to see if the TS in the blog has subsided...
can we stop with the attitude can we all cool it and can we all play nic?
...you have an attitude, supercell. Chaser in no way insulted you in any way, and you flamed him. Drop it, or you're rather likely to be banned.
darn...please show me where you said that the NHC would stil kep her a 75 mph hurricane....this followed your assertion that she should be a 65 mph ts and Colby telling you its still a 75 mph cane at the 10 mph advisory...

Whas wrong with being honest and admitting a mistake once in awhile like I do Lefty?


Posted By: supercell216 at 2:49 AM GMT on December 06,
2005.

no torn, i said the nhc would lower the winds at 10pm to 75mph, which they did. i also mentioned that THIS COULD BE THE START OF THE GRADUAL WEAKENING. it was short term weakening and has been fluctuating in strength all day.
I have no doubt you are using anbother screen name....you write exactly as he does and get the same attitude and say everyone is ganging up on you..curse at people..etc.

if you're not, theres still no excuse for your actions.
Good night, hopefully Supercell will get a good nights sleep.
Supercell, you have been ganging up on everybody trying to explain their points of view if they differ from yours. You have a sly response to everything.
You fools! Morons! This will be a Cat 3 in 36 hours. It will head westward through the carribean, than recurve north and persist despite all predictions of degradation, than turn east then south. It will loop around in the atlantic until 2006! Then it will die.
WHAT THE **** COLBY. WHERE IN THIS BLOG HAVE I "FLAMED" EVERYONE? I HAVE ASKED PEOPLE WHY THEY CONTINUE TO BELITTLE ME AND DISAGREE ON PURPOSE. HOW CAN I BE BANNED FOR BEING INSULTED BY YOU ALL?
He writes like who hurricanechaser? And don't say Lefty, I don't think I'd ever gotten, would get, or could get in a fight with him.
Thats one thing I respect about the others on here when we disagree...its done without belittling the other and when we are wrong..we admit it...

Instead you blame others, lie about what you really said etc.

Sorry that I noticed it...Fact is I wasn't going to bring it up until you started jumping on Tony and being sarcastic to Colby.
ok all that it no more now Drop it
thats right colby, leave when you are in the clear (and that is definitely not sarcastic)

chaser and torn, elaborate, explain, im not getting this
Supercell, you act infallable, always right, like no one can or should have an opinion that differs from yours.
supercell, you have low self-esteem. Find another blog your contributions here are worthless.
My question was not asking if the Pacific or Atlantic had more storms than each other. My question was whether the Pacific Ocean had a montrous tropical year like the Atlantic did.

And now that we know that warm Pacific waters mean a possible heightened Atlantic storm season, we can better forcast years such as 2005.
Pleae Supercell..you got an attitude with me based on this post...
where do I belittle you?

Posted By: hurricanechaser at 3:01 AM GMT on December 06, 2005.

Hey everyone,

Just wanted to check in with the 10 PM EST update which has Epsilon holding on to 75 mph minimal hurricane intensity which is a realistic and accurate estimae in my opinion.

I'm confused about this quote...

Posted By: supercell216 at 2:38 AM GMT on December 06, 2005.

now the nhc really have to be sensible and downgrade her to a 65mph ts

Why do you think Epsilon should have been downgraded to a 65 mph ts?

There is no evidence of that dramatic of a weakening as of yet. The Dvorak estimates have naturally decreased but are still consistent with a 75 mph hurricane. In addition, there is still enough organization and convection close enough to the eyewall to support that intensity as well. I respectfully disagree that the NHC downgrading it at the 10 PM EST advisory would be sensible. Don't worry they'll get their chance soon enough.
supercell can't handle the fact that he was dead wrong, lol! he is embarassed.
hurricanechaser and others, i never thought it would come to this....
My question was not asking if the Pacific or Atlantic had more storms than each other. My question was whether the Pacific Ocean had a montrous tropical year like the Atlantic did.

And now that we know that warm Pacific waters mean a possible heightened Atlantic storm season, we can better forcast years such as 2005.


Where did we learn that?
I agree Trouper, I think that the prediction for 2006 will be more accurate in light of all the events of the past 2 years. Alot was and still is being learned this year.
Read Dr. Masters' post.
I have a headache now.
Read Dr. Masters' post.
I did. That has notihng to do with a heightened atlantic storm season.
I have a stomach ache.
Happy B-Day Torn if I don't see ya tomorrow. Didn't I already wish you one recently lol?
Can I simply try asking another ? Supercell....why did you get upset when I asked you why you feel Epsilon should only be a 65 mph ts?

I gave my reasons..I simply wanted your viewpoint...you made the comment that the NHC isn't sensible..in reality, I don't think they would take that as a compliment.
ok chaser, before I go I need to try to speak as the voice of reason - supercell is NOT lefty posting under another name... that is a bizarre claim.

I lurked in this blog for many months and became very familiar with lefty's style of posting and also his vast knowledge of tropical systems. I respect BOTH supercell and lefty very much, but they are NOT the same person - you really should retract that comment.

maybe we could all take a deep breath, check the latest model runs and floater images and shear forecasts, and see if it's not possible to focus on this once in a lifetime storm...

people will be talking about Epsilon for years to come - do you want to be able to say: "yeah, I tracked that one start to finish" OR "I was too busy scrapping with other bloggers to pay much attention..."
Duh! The NHC is full of incompetent pricks! Amateurs and imposters! They just want to inflate the hurricane season so they get more money!
I will apologize for upsetting you for that wasn't my intention..only one apology because I sincerely mean it..of course, I wonder if you will accept it or offer one in return for the direct attacks on me and others?

Regardless, I will never ask your opinion on anything again.
I want to say "I was too busy scrapping with other bloggers to pay much attention..."
I think so. But thanks again Progressive!

And to clarify, I said that hurricanechaser had better NOT be talking about Lefty.
tornadoty, I sincerely wish you a happy birthday tomorrow... it has been a privilege to share info/analysis with you on this blog - have a great day!
Thanks snowboy.

OK gonna take my shower. Be back in a few.
And Snowboy I respect you very much as well but we can respectfully disagree regarding Lefty.:)

I didn't have a problem with Supercell till he got an attitude with me. It had NOTHING to do with my forecasting but instead was a personal attack and I agree I was wrong to make the LEFTY comparison.
Hurricanechaser, torn, Colby, everyone else

I have tried everything. I try threatening all of you, I try leaving for good and wishing you future success, and I even try changing my handle just so I can offer a valuable opinion and help the many eager learners and others who need advice. But no; nothing works. Its the same, boring old story. You disagree with my comments by torching me and insulting me until it hurts. I have apologized hundreds of times to everyone, but its still not enough. Now im guessing you all hated me anyway. Just because you guys cant respect someone for their views, it doesnt mean I have to live with it, even when I try and start fresh by changing my handle. So here is my main point. I am not lefty, I am atmos, the person you drove out of here in the first place. Somehow, nothing has changed, and just because I changed my name it doesnt mean im not going to give my opinions. Obviously you guys have a serious problem with the way I talk in conversation or something else. So maybe you should send me more hate mail and write nasty comments while I am gone. After all of this, it is over now. And this time, there will be no proper goodbye or wishing you the best of luck in storm tracking in the future. It is simply my last signoff. Good day to all of you.

Atmos
Wtf was the point of that?
hi atmosweather do not go he dos not mean he is going is he

hi hurricanechaser what up
yeah he's gone KRWZ
Please Atmos...show me whee I ever sent you hate mail..I sent you just the opposite.
lovemail? ewwwww
324. E
timl, are you ignorant are just plain stupid?
ITS OVER, ITS DONE. I AM SIGNING OFF FOREVER AFTER I PRESS "POST". GOOD DAY ALL OF YOU.
326. E
peace atmos
come back
E, I don't know maybe both, what are you talking about?
oh man atmos/supercell this is so sad - you've contributed SO much to this blog and any time we lose someone like you it diminishes us all...

all of us are passionate about the weather and tropical systems, otherwise we wouldn't be here - and from time to time, we get ticked off with others which is human...

what I find so troubling is that this electronic medium, which is very "cold" and impersonal and which contributes to small disputes blowing up this way - I appreciate the opportunity to be in touch with you all, and I wish we had some way of de-escalating things before they get out of hand

folks we all need to take a hard look at ourselves and our own little contributions to this and other similar episodes, and see if we can't evolve personally to a better way of dealing with conflicts
Frankly Atmos, good.
Hey atmos..i dont understand why you took my question so personally....nowhere did I attack you before you jumped on me..yet you ate acting just like Lefty..so I can't help but wonder..regardless...the Truth is still the truth regardless of anyone personal opinion...He could be Lefty or Not..theres no way to know for sure... Either way..he acts like Lefty..too bad you can't see it and respect someone so much who acts like Lefty did which is just like Atmos has tonight.

I have no problem with anyone questioning my abilty in forecasting because I wil wrong many more times but I post a blog daily making those forecasts available to be criticized.

I notice that Lefty has never done that for example...if you compae...you might be surprised how much he truly doesn't know. Thats not a fault except when you belittle othes when they respectfully and legitimately disagree about the science not the person.

Oh spare me the drama snowboy! jesus christ!
g'night all - see you tomorrow
I am someone who tries to make amends and accept rsponsibilty for my actions which noone can disagree with based on my past and I desire to do the same with Atmos. However, I am not someone who sits back and takes personal attacks lightly...you will not see me personally attack anyone first..although I have been guilty of doing that in response which isn't the right the do. Thus I offer my last and sincere apology fr those actions. My problem is why can't others do the same?
WOW!!! Walked into a buzz-saw!!! More interested in positive input than toxic... outta here.
336. code1
Hi cgables, long time no see. I agree, same ol', same ol'...No fun any more. Torn, if I don't see you tomorrow, Have a wonderful birthday!
ok for those who are interested in Epsilon..check out the latest Infrared...Epsilon has been able to wrap convection back around its eye although dry air lingers close by.

ooops..lost the link..lol brb:)

where is ever one going?
OK, how many say Eps still a Hurricane at 4am? I say hurricane.
Also looks like it is about to loose that outer band of convection Chaser!
Thanks code.

I will stick with what I have said all along: hurricane at 5 AM EST.
Sitting almost stationary in that cold water is not going to help much.
timl2k5 i say it will be a hurricane by 4am
*4 AM EST
You know, looking at infrared it's finally looking like the shear is getting to it.
True Progressive, but...

This is Epsilon we're talking about.
a very valid point Progressive..its definately pulsating trying to fight off the dry air thats eroding its overall circulation.. I agree that the slow movement and southward motion is exposing it to more upwelling and increased shear.

Honestly, Id be very surprised if it maintains hurricane intensity for another 12 hours...however, there are conflicting variables at work in the past two frames so I like to wait at least 3 to 6 hours to make a definate prediction but I'm leaning toward gradual weakening that has already begun apparently.
Yeah so true Torn, all is speculation now. I think there is very few that have not been wrong for the past several days, including myself.
Good night guys. Got to get smoe sleep. Hopefully, we'll all just cool down a bit (including myself) for tomorrow.
it will probably stil remain a 75 mph hurricane at the 4 am advisory although the NHC is eager to downgrade it as soon as possible.
Happy birthday Tony..I hope youu sleep well and have an awesome Birthday tomorrow.:)
I can hear the cheers in the NHC when they do Chaser. We are finally right!!!!
LOL..progressive:)
I would like to see the research on this storm, I am sure there will be loads.
I know..its a shame that they couldn't send a recon that far out.
so why is central North Pacific warming of 1.3 degrees C what dos that mean for 2006 hurricane year?
For those who leave because of a feud, whats the point? We're talking weather here, and on a computer afterall. Drop the stupid ego talk because hurricane season 2005 deserves the attention and not our idiot predicting selves. If you have a problem with someone on here, who cares, they are 3000 miles away from you with many millibars in between. Anyway, to conclude this, fighting from one computer screen is pointless and dumb, and not comming back perminantly is even more perposterous.

I say she will be a hurricane until tomorow, then I make a new prediction. I already said the last few hours were going to be big in the whole scheme of things. However that time has passed and still we have an Epsilon on our hands that will not go away.

BB73
Hello everyone i've never really participated in this blog before but I like to track hurricanes and wish to participate in this blog. I signed on once before hurricane wilma which all of you kept me very well informed since i live in miami. Thank you all!
Looked at the accuweather satalite, why? Looking at the snowstorm on the east coast. But, I did notice that Epsillon has a much better satalite presentation in the last frames.
888889, the warming of those pacific waters keep the jet stream either too low or too high in latitude so it has less of an effect on these storms in the atlantic.
I was just looking at the latest visible imagery...its a close call right now going forward. You could make a case for maintaing hurricane intensity in the next 6 hours and one against both based on the satellite imagery. The next couple of hours will say alot because the eyewall covection has reformed but tyhe dry air and shear are eroding the southern circulation and wants to reexpose it once again.
Yes elongated but the windfield seems larger.
ohh..hey there Miami...glad you joined us.:)

please feel free to give your analysis or anything you desire regarding the weather.
Yeah I see that, didn't do that the previous nights, these were it's finest hours.
thanks hurricane
yw...what do you think is going to happen with Epsilon Miami?
Honestly, I think my 4 and half year old could do as good a job as me right now predicting whether Epsilon will retain huricane intensity past 6 hours or so.:)
Well I think this storm so far has defied all odds, from what im seeing on the shortwave, the high cloud tops are organizing somewhat around the center, so i think that it is probable that it will survive the night and continue on till tomorrow as a hurricane. We'll see what happens then :)
Hey guys, got a couple questions for you. Bere with me here they might be a bit, amatuer if you will.

1. How does a storms windfield determine its intensity or size? Could a hurricane have a very small windfield and still be very concentrated around a small eye?

2. What satellite imagery do you use to determine a storms windfield.

3. Can you give me the definition of Baroclinic and how its used in relation to a hurricane, and also Baroclinic.

Thanks
Looks like a piece of swiss cheese right now, my guess before I go is that the 4 am will reveal a tropical storm. I have been wrong the past 3 nights so take it for what you will.
One more question, in regards to what Miami just brought up, he sayd the cloud tops are beginning to organzie around the center. How can you tell that? What imagery? THanks
Hello Trouper, I found them on the nhc website.
There is a list of different satellite views there.
Link
i need a good night ZZZZZZZZZ so go night all

and i think ever one sould call it a night and get a good night ZZZZ and come back on her feeling good if you all no what i mean

so night all
geez, guys....stop all the bickering.....please??

good night krwz
nones bickering Sherre.:)
Sorry I was eating dinner..lol:)

Its looking more and more like as a downgrade at the 4 am advisory if the current 3 hour trend doesn't reverse itself...the shear is getting to the NE quadrant while the Southern portion is getting penetrating by dry air.. not healthy for a minimal hurricane...looking more like a 70 mph Tropical Storm right at the moment.
Trouper: A wind field is basically how far the winds extend from the center, and is pretty much another word for the size of the storm.

Basically, the size of the storm (along with QuikSCAT scans) determines the wind field.

I'm not very sure what baroclinic means, but it has something to do with (kinetic=movement=wind) energy coming from a difference in temperatures. I'm pretty sure that extratropical (i.e. normal) storms and cold/warm fronts are baroclinic.
If I'm right, a tropical system transitions into an extratropical system when it starts getting most of its energy baroclinically.
Thats right AYSZ...excellent description.:)
Can that batch of convection to the west end up hurting Epsilon? (It might produce shear over the central convection around the eye.)
Honestly, I've never thought of that scenario so I have to say I'm not quite sure. My best guess is that it shouldn't because the convection in itself isn't shear inducing..to me it just has much better outflow on its NW side in stark comparison to the rest of the overall circulation.
I wonder if there's any relationship between warm SST anomalies in the Central N Pacific and MJO?
What are the major differences betwen a baroclonic storm such as an extratropical cyclone and a purely Tropical system?

Tropical Storm

First, A tropical cyclone forms over tropical waters.

Secondly,its strongest winds are near the Earths surface.

Thirdly, its center of the circulation is much warmer than the surrounding air masses.

Forthly, they contain no frontal boundaries.

Extratropical Storms


Extratropical storms on the other hand naturally form outside of the tropics (thats why they are called (extratropical which seems like an oxymoron)

Secondly, the center of the storm is coldr than the surrounding air masses.

Thirdly,its strongest winds are located in the upper atmoshere.

Forthly,it has a frontal zone which is a dividing line where warm and cold air clash.



386. haydn
What is MJO?
And the other important element I left off is that extratropical storms intensify by the contrasts in air temperatures while Tropical storms feed off the water vapor that evaporates from the warm waters beneath it which condenses and provides latent heat.
I have head that term before but cannot remember what it is exactly...although I believe it has to do with the ENSO cycles. More commonly understood as climate change relative to El Nino and La Ninas which have worldwide impacts.
If I am correct..I am assuming the question might be whether the warmer sea surface temperatures in the Central Pacific could be attributed to the ENSO cycle.
sup tony
I have honestly never studied a correlation although it is plausable. We certainly know that the ENSO cycle does affect the sea surface temperatures in the East Pacific just off Peru which is defined by either a neutral ENSO, El NINO, or La NINO conditions.
393. haydn
I am looking this up on google in a seperate window. It does have something to do with ENSO and El Nino events. Right now I don't understand it. I'll have to do some research. From what I've read, it would take a lot to describe it.
wow really technecal tonight lol
Hey Jeff,

How are you doing?
Eppy has really thrown alot of stronger convection to the west of her & stuggled to close the eye wall, almost like in preperation of whats coming at her from that side. You can really see the bridge to the leewards setting up here, she's gotta move fast to have anything left to arrive with. She looks like she plans on a good fight, so i hazard to say she'll still be a hurricane in the morning. Wish i could stay up to watch the interaction, but sleep beckons.
~atmos ~ way to burn them, had suspected that was you;)
~torn ~ it's your b-day here already, so HAPPY BIRTHDAY!! I'm glad you got your wish.
~everyone else, peace til tommarrow
sorry skyepony to disappoint you..I wasn't burned..lol:)
Heres an interesting note from Dr. Grays outllok for the 2006 hurricane season...

"The influences of El Nio conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. We do not expect El Nio conditions during the 2006 season. It is more likely that neutral or even La Nia conditions will develop."
hey chaser dong good whos bday is it
400. haydn
La Nina?? That means there will be more storms in the Atlantic. I don't want to see a repeat of this season.
La Nina creates extremely favorable conditions for Atlantic Basin storm formation because this cooling of the East Pacific off of Peru reduces the intensity of the upper level winds that blow from west to east against the typical direction troopical waves are moving from the east to the west.

El Nino conditions do the opposite with a major increase in the westerly wind shear all across the atlantic basin precluding much tropical cyclone development.

This year was a neutral ENSO cycle which by definition creates aveage upper level westerlies.

Just imagine if we had La nina conditions during this season.
oh crud no la nina tell that female water wind thing to bug off
403. haydn
I couldn't imagine. I helped load trucks to send to Mississippi after Katrina. I used to enjoy seeing storms come. After seeing pictures of the devastation, I have changed my mind.
Each timje a La nina has occured...there has been an increase in the typical numbers of Atlantic Basin storms but doesn't by itself guarentee an above normal season.

It does however make it more likely since it dramaticallly affects the strength of the westerly winds in the upper levels that try to mitigate against tropical cyclone development.

A La NINA combined with the well above normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures and a continued presence of lower surface pressures during next season could make for another very active season to sday the least. Right now, its difficult to predict a La Nina more than 3 to 6 months in advance.
no La Nina no La Nina no La Nina no La Nina no La Nina
ok i have made my point wait no La Nina
407. haydn
Current maps of Pacific sst don't show any changes yet.
We'll have a bettr picture in Feb or March.
408. haydn
I agree with no La Nina.
However, I can't comprehend another season like this one and I personally see an above average season with 15 to 18 named storms which is whast I wrote in my blog a couple of weeks ago.

It is very unlikely to have two seasons back to back exhaust the 21 name list and I expect we won't get that far next season hopefully.:)
LOL..hay and Jeff...I don't want to see one either.:)
411. haydn
I just checked a picture of Epsilon. The convection seems stronger around the eye, but dry air is lurking in the SE.
not disappointed~ i payed the $5 for the entertainment value the blogs have provided alone. We're all a little chaotic, to love the beauty of these storms the way we do. Spats are inevitable, it's all good. The more minds that input though, the better we see & the blog is made better. No real need to run off those that can't admit an error. It's all wrote down, anyone can read it all & see. Keep discribing eppy for me through the night. i look forward to reading it tommarow~might be a pivital night~ to see what happens to her when she's cut from the extatropical energy source~peas out~
yeah who does maby if we chant loud ebough we will scare it away lol
Honestly I'm torn because I get paid to cover major landfalling storms but I don't want the damage much less physical harm to others. This season has had a big impact on my perceptions of Hurricanes.

All in All..Id rather be poor.
415. haydn
I live in the SC midlands. Tammy broke a small drought. I don't mind the weak systems that bring in the rain.
I agree with your sentiments Skyepony. All of them.

Have a goodnight.:)
Hey hay (oops..lol:),

Did you get any effects from Hugo in 1989?
MJO--simply put--is intense tropical rainfall from the Western Pacific dumping moisture on the U.S. West Coast by the "Pineapple Express." Last Dec-Jan we had a huge MJO event (followed by additional episodes Feb-March) which dumped incredible anmounts of snow on the Southern Rockies.

We skiers love that. Thus my original question of whether the current warm SST anomaly in the Central N Pacific could trigger an MJO event. Since MJO by definition is a initiated by tropical Pacific moisture, I was wondering whether the warm Central N Pacific SST anomaly Dr. Masters noted in this thread could trigger an MJO.
Thanks for the very informative post.:)

Based upon what you just wrote and what I read in your link it appears very rational to expect such a correlation.
man im in sacramento and i have never heard of MJO nut know of the pinapple express thats storms that for by hawaii and bring a warmer rain with high snow levels
421. haydn
60 mph winds and no rain ... I thought our pine trees were going to snap. I lived in a double wide then. I did not like the thought of waking up to pine needles. ... I slept through most of it. My dad stayed up most of the night. Columbia got pounded though it was inland. People there got 120 mph winds.
WOW!...is that your biggest tropical event to date?

not a good place to be in 60 mph gusts.
423. haydn
Ditto on the definition of MJO.
alot of people don't realize that 60 mpoh gusts in saturated grond can uproot alot of trees and create life threatening conditions in the process. Its a blessing you had no rainfall with those gusts.
I'm curious Jeff....have you experience hurricane force wind storms out there on the west coast or a strong earthquake?
426. haydn
That is my biggest experience. It wasn't gusts. The winds were constant. I may be guessing about the 60mph winds. That was 17 years ago and I didn't have a way to measure the winds. I'm recalling what my father told me. If another weak storm like Tammy comes, I would like to go to the coast to see the waves.
never that i can recall
the only wind storms that come are the strong fronts and were i live i am sheltered from most of the wind maby a 20 mph gust will blow by my house lol but down in the valley it will be sustained at 20 gusting to 40 l0o
ok. I gotta try and get some sleep but I hope you each have a great night.:)

Take care Jeff, Snow, Hay, and the others.:)
LOL Jeff...and you may have gotten a hurricane force gust with Hugo.

Have a goodnight everyone.:)
431. haydn
Hurricanechaser, what has been your most interesting experience? From the way you write, it sounds like you have been in several storms.
haha i dont think so lol ok night tony
433. haydn
I guess I'll an answer to my question later. Goodnight.
Sorry Hay,
I just saw your post as I was signing off.;)
Epsilon may just retain hurricane intensity as its holding on...its borderline right now...heres the latest Infrared.:)

Link
Haydn,

I got fascinated by hurricanes when Diana brought hurricane force winds to me in Wilmington N.C. in September of 1984. I became somewhat obsessed with them at the impressionable age of 14.

One of my favorite memories is from my very first major hurricane experience in large category three Fran where I was in the right front quadrant NE of landfall on September 5th 1996. We got 120 mph gusts.

That same year in July, we got a direct hit from ctegory two Bertha.

In 1998, category two Bonnie hit us.

In 1999, it was 65 mph wind gusts as Dennis passed offshore a large category two hurricane, followed by category two Floyd that brought 100 mph gusts.

Then I began chasing storms in August of 2004.

Almost got swept away by storm surge on Hwy. 12 in the Outer Banks as hurricane Alex brushed by with hurricane force gusts.

Then a much weakened hurricane Charley in Wrightsville Beach, N.C. with 90 mph gusts.

I chased Jeanne in Daytona Beach , Fl. but I missed her and ony got 65 mph gusts.

This year I intercepted Dennis in extreme SW Alabama where I got hammered by 100 mph gusts in the small but intense eyewall.

I got as far as Extreme South Hattiesburg for Katrina after having to cancel my reservations in Gulfport because I was sick and left a day later. We got 120 mph gusts 55 miles inland. Roofs flyng off, kangaroo store being systematically dismantled with large metal debris cascading through the air, and trees being uprooted and cut in half around me. This footage was shown on Fox News and CNN with a personal interview which launched my chasing carrer.

Then Ophelia as a strong category One along Outer Banks and was trapped by storm surge once again in 86 mph gusts.

Then Wilma in Everglades City when we saw 115 mph gusts and a 4 to 5 foot storm surge that surrounded my car in a matter of minutes and me and another chaser just made it to a hotel that was the only possible place to go.

All in all...

Its a tough call between Fran, Katrina, and Wilma all category three when I experienced them.

Sorry I wrote so much..I just realized how long it is.:)





haah tony you are a convicted lurker how does it feel lol
LOl..mr. Jeff..actually I was writing that long post..to long I gues..I'm a slow typist. It took me almost three hours to write my last blog.:) lol
lol man a human typewriter thats lol
hey Jeff...I just left Corys blog..lol
441. melli
hurri, enjoyed your 3hr post. its why we are here.
melli
Thanks so much Melli for the very thoughtful sentiments.:)

I stayed up to see if the NHC would keep Epsilon at Hurricane intensity which they did. It is currently a 75 mph hurricane holding on in more or less a steady state.

I was going to post my expectations for Epsilons future intensity but decided to update my blog instead.

I hope everyone has a great day.:) I will once again be sleeping in while I'm on vacation this week.:)
Still a 'cane at 5AM, looking better again (lol)
I am going to quote the NHC because it is how I feel and well simply put it says it all. "I HAVE RUN OUT OF THINGS TO SAY...AND THIS ONE WILL BE SHORT." HOW HOW HOW HOW and it looks like it wrapping around again and rebuilding the convection. HOW lol?
Convection closing, time for a new Epsilon.

Banding features looking really nice too.
Real quickly before I leave:

If hurricanechaser's hypothesis is right (read his blog), then the approaching front may be aiding in its strengthening.
good morning everyone... so we still have Epsilon?

hi Hurricane... hope you enjoy your vacation!
NEW BLOG UP
Folks...remember that we had a period of a few weeks earlier this season where there were massive plumes of very dry air crossing the Atlantic from those African dust storms, which inhibited tropical development. Absent that, we may have had even more storms this year.

Can't wait to see what 2006 will bring...
The hot spot in the Pacific may be related to the upwelling of Global Ocean Circulation (THC or called the Gulf Stream in the northern Atlantic). The downwelling sites east and southwest of Greenland act as vacuum to pull water around the world. If the Gulf Stream (surface water headed north) is slowing so also would be the upwelling process in the north Pacific (deep water rising to become surface water and surface water pulled back to the Atlantic).