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Why no hurricanes for Puerto Rico this year?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:06 PM GMT on December 12, 2005

A brief update on the tropics today:

A strong extratropical low pressure system (993 mb) is just south of the Azores Islands today, in the far eastern Atlantic. This storm is generating winds of 40-45 mph, and has the potential to make the transition to a tropical storm later in the week as it moves slowly westward. Water temperatures beneath it are 21-22C and wind shear is a low 5-10 knots. However, strong wind shear associated with an appraoching trough is expected to impact the storm on Wednesday, which may not leave it enough time to make the transition to Tropical Storm Zeta.

Why no hurricanes for Puerto Rico this year?

I've plotted an image (Figure 1) showing every stretch of Atlantic coast placed under a hurricane or tropical storm warning during the Hurricane Season of 2005. The phenomenal number of landfalling storms in 2005 led to warnings being hoisted for the entire Atlantic coast from Plymouth Massachusetts southwards to Costa Rica. A small section of Guatemala and Honduras escaped warnings, but nonetheless received damage from heavy rains from at least one tropical storm. Most of the Caribbean islands also suffered blows from at least one hurricane, with the notable exception of the area around Puerto Rico--the northeastern Caribbean
--where no storms occurred. Why did this region escape the wrath of the Hurricane Season of 2005?


Figure 1. Map of all coastal areas subjected to hurricanes warnings (red) and tropical storm warnings (yellow) during the Hurricane Season of 2005.

One obvious possibility is that wind shear levels in the northeast Caribbean happened to be higher than average. This is the theory advanced by Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University in his summary of the 2005 hurricane season. However, when one plots the average wind shear over the various portions of the Atlantic for 2005 (Figure 2), only the western Caribbean shows near average levels of wind shear. The ocean areas on either side of Puerto Rico--the eastern Caribbean and the tropical Atlantic--both show below-average levels of wind shear.


Figure 2. Historical average wind shear levels (black lines) and observed wind shear for the 2005 hurricane season (blue lines). The Gulf of Mexico, eastern Caribbean, and tropical Atlantic all had wind shear levels well below average for much of the 2005 hurricane season.

Another possibility is that large amounts of African dust inhibited tropical storm formation in the northeast Caribbean. This is likely a significant factor, since many large clouds of African dust tended to push across the Atlantic and into the northeast Caribbean between late July and early September of 2005, the prime part of hurricane season for this region. I can recall in particular that the dry air associated with Tropical Depression Ten helped kill this storm as it approached the northeast Caribbean in mid-August. Unfortunately, the dry air diluted enough by the time it reached the Bahamas that Hurricane Katrina was able to form from the remnants of Tropical Depression Ten.


Figure 2. Visible satellite image of one of the many clouds of African dust that crossed the Atlantic during the Summer of 2005.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Good morning Dr. Masters! I never thought I would say this: I love the saharan dust, even if it's an uphill battle to keep things clean.
Have a nice day, and thank you!
Awsome Dr. M, thanks! Will repost a comment from last blog here. Hope some have the extra cash and compassion to help.

Posted By: code1 at 9:44 AM CST on December 12, 2005.
And Katrina just keeps on giving/taking....The below is a post from Hills blog that I made and wanted everyone here to see as well. Gonna donate to Target if possible in WU's name. I know we are all storm tired and maxed out on giving to victims, but $15-$20 for a child to have pajamas is not too much to ask....

Posted By: code1 at 9:06 AM CST on December 12, 2005.
Wanted to post this:

Just saw a little boy, around 10-12 years old on GMA. Missed the entire clip, but he only asked for a pair of pajamas for Christmas!! Heart broken here. On a good note, the clip said Target had a registry, you can find the site through GMA to donate for these unfortunate children. Most of them Katrina victims. Imagine a child that age just asking for pajamas.....

GMA=Good Morning America
Hey, hopfully we can get a Zeta today\

BB73
Good morning all!
What a beautiful south Florida day
Boynton Beach, Boynton Beach, Florida
Elevation: 30 ft

59 F
Clear
Humidity: 49%
Dew Point: 40 F
Wind: 5 mph from the WNW
Wind Gust: 11.0 mph
Pressure: 30.09 in
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above

Nice day here as well...on the space coast

Partly Cloudy

59F
(15C) Humidity: 45 %
Wind Speed: NW 12 MPH
Barometer: 30.09" (1018.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 37F (3C)
Visibility: 7.00 mi
Beautiful Morning here in Cayman as well, 83F and little cloud. 'The World' cruise ship is in today in Georgetown.

Any one have any thoughts on the blob above Panama and it's chances for forming into anything (floater 2).

What's the shear like in the south west Carribean?
How did you put all those Warning's Up? That must have took a While to find them all
Good afternoon. TBIM!

:-)
Snowman, the warnings were probably put up by a computer program. A couple of keystrokes, a few mouse clicks, and Voila! a map with all the warnings ready to go out to some unsuspecting blog.

Nice day in Ft. Lauderdale, although the temperature is struggling to hit 70.

And my home in NH is about to be hit by another Nor'easter. I feel sorry for them...NOT!
WOW @ that map...that's insane...
Anyone notice the large above-average spikes before and after the season?
hey stormy!! Hope you are feeling better today
hey 65, nope, going to the docs tomorrow...
I am, however, loving this weather...just perfect! Although, we've gotten some high clouds in this afternoon...it should make a pretty sunset!
sorry to hear that stormy....I know that they will get you fixed up and you'll be feeling good in no time. It is a very nice day today...a bit cool this morning though
Stormy, hope you are ok.
Feel better!(((((HUGS)))))
Thanks palmbeacher and 65...ya, Im enjoying the cool weather for a change, Im tired of this low-grade fever Ive had since last Tues...I came in the office this morning and about suffocated from the heat, Im too stuffy. So, its about 60 in here right now.
Hey Thanks Doctor Masters!!
Really appreciate that you shed ligth on the subject of my Island. While the dust clouds are a nuisance when they are here (dirty cars, asma sufferers stay indoors, etc) I really apreciate them now. Especially with the past season breeding such violent storms. We will keep hoping our luck holds for the next season.


So register and support wunderground!
Hi all. Havnt posted in a few days. The weather could not be anymore tranquil here in Southern California. Warm days cool nights. No good chance of rain this week. Funny sign by the way.
[img src="http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/sat/aor/sst/0512121940.gif"]
Whoops, that didn't work.

Colby, would you please explain how to post pictures.
Never mind Colby.

It's:

Whoops again, it's:

[img src="imageurl"] with

[ = less than symbol and

] = greater than symbol
The less than symbol is "" not "]".
My comment didn't show up properly. I'll try again.
The less than symbol is not ].
It still didn't work (what's going on here?).
The less than symbol is the arrowhead pointing left not [ &
greater than is the arrowhead pointing right not ].
It won't show them, it edits them out because it thinks they're HTML tags.

[img src="imageurl"]

Replace [ with lesser-than sign.
Replace ] with greater-than sign.
Tropical Weather Discussion
Amateur Hurricane Center
7:00PM Decmber 12, 2005

The extratropical low over the northeastern atlantic has changed little today. Convection continues to appear close to the center, but there is not enough concentration to think about a subtropical classification as yet. If the system doesn't develop soon, it won't ever, due to a cold front approaching from the west - not that Epsilon minded too much.


My tropical weather discussion for the evening.
that did not work
img src="http://www.wunderground.com/global/Region/AT/2xIRSatellite.html"
how did you post that photo on the blog???
gippgig, you've got mail....
Google for "html adding images"
lcl_chroniclesofnarniaposter
lcl_chroniclesofnarniaposter
lcl_chroniclesofnarniaposter
that did not work how do you post photo on to the blog
www.criterionpic.com/ cpl/lcl_fr_upcom_chronic...
that did not work too
Zeta-to-be is looking better tonight. It's dropped the fronts, and shown some half-decent convection around it's core. This could make it within the next couple of days if it gets it's act together before the front arrives from the west. Go Zeta...
i want one storm be for the end of 2005 and would be Zeta... go Zeta... go lol lol go Zeta... go lol lol yes lol


KRWZeta...Email's Coming Your Way

It's Best To Practice In Your Own Blog Until You Get The Hang Of It. You Can keep Modifying Your Entry Until You Get It Right OR If You Want To Test Picture Size or Source. (Not all URL's will allow you to reference their pics on other sites & block usage. [RED X BOX] of gloom :(

Be Kind To Those On Dial-Up...NO Big Pics, if it can be helped.
GoodNight All.

KRWZeta, If You Need More Pic Help, Visit HILLSBOROUGHBAY's Blog
There's Almost ALWays Somebody Home Here Who Can Help with Posting Images.
Fran Out.
what see if this work
ZETA ZETA ITS OUR STORM
IF IT CAN'T DO IT NONE WILL FORM

:D Gogogo!
ForecasterColby do we have that storm yet
For easier illustration next time, guys:
&lt; changes into <
&rt; changes into &rt;
55. MZT
Seas are still quite warm, 25C or so from latitute 27 south. I think the chances are good for an off-season storm in January, even if Zeta does not form.
Whoops!

&lt; changes into <
&gt; changes into >
So...we gonna have a Zeta or what???
I want Zeta!!!!!!1
Anyone have some good links to how zeta's doing? Satellite images etc. THanks

BB73
Check out the GFDL, does it have another system forming after zeta?
Hello everyone,
I have not posted in a few weeks cause I am trying to de-stress myself cause of the past season. Since the Dr. brought up the global warming issue, I want to say that in my humble opinion that I think this past season is just the start of what is to come.....I am 41 years old & I cannot remember this kind of severe season. Wow 3 Cat. 5 storms in 1 year!!!! I think that this is unheard of along with all the other weird happenings in the weather over the past few years. I am interested to hear everyones comments on the warming issue!!!!!!!!
'zeta' does not look promising to me.
Speaking of Cat 5 storms, I have put some NHC graphs on my blog showing the incredible wind speeds near my house!!

p.s. katrinaritawilmazeta..... I have been through a Cat 5 storm & trust me u do NOT want to go through one. I know it sounds kewl from afar but trust me.... when u are in one u will think different. But, if u do wanna go through one, come on down to FL.(hurricane alley) next year cause there probably be 1 coming down the pike!!!!!!!!!!!lol
Fshhead, glad to hear you're back. I have also noticed irratical weather patterns over the past couple years, and especially 2005. I would be very hesitant to say that this is indeed global warming. Let's put it this way, the earth has been around for a very long time. And events and trends that take place because of mother nature tend to take a long time to transpire, and more importantly be noticed. So saying this trend of above normal hurricane activity and other odd weather events, only occuring over the last 3 years, is global warming, is a bit too quick in my opinion. However, there are 2 factors, one which we heard about very recently and the other which some people might not know.
The first being the 30% slowdown in the ocean loop current which takes warm water up north which is then cooled and then sinks back down to the equator where it is warmed. This could very well lead to a sess pool of warm water that cannot make the trip up to the northern latitudes where it is cooled. This would lead to a growth in the number of hurricanes because the water is warmer making it easier for some of these storms to intensify quicker, making them more resistant to their enemy, colder water and wind shear.
The second aspect that could be leading to both the increased number of storms and their intensity, might very well be global warming. I cannot back this up with a source, however the rate at which we emit c02 occurs at an exponetial rate, thus raising temperatures at an exponential rate as well. In saying this, I beleive we may be underestimating the effects of global warming.
With these new 'hybrid' types of storms such as gamma, epsilon and probably zeta which are forming at a time of the year when hurricanes arent supposed to form and resisting wind shear like never seen before. I am starting to think we are underestimating the 30% slowdown in the loop current (I may be mis-wording this loop current, excuse me if I am). I think we may be mis-calculating the ocean temperatures and the hear potential the water has. Just a gut feeling.

Thats about it, hope Zeta forms for 88889.

BB73
please, if anyone is thinking of donating, there are plenty of Wilma victims too.....I think the whole country is aware of Katrina's victims, but South Florida had many as well, that seem to be untold....and each rainstorm compromises more and more buildings....
Trouper writes......


Thats about it, hope Zeta forms for 88889.

don't think so.......let 88889 live in hurricane alley....
I wouldnt say something like that if the storm had a potential to put peoples lives in jeoperdy. I'm sorry if that ticked you off, and it probably was at a bad time considering you posted for donations. sorry again. Just tells how amazing this hurricane season was, considering how on the edge of our seats we really are. I would bet that in every other hurricane season besides the past couple we would be chanting for a storm like Zeta to form at this time of year. Instead it's all gone sour as so many people were negatively effected from these storms. I am going down to do volunteer work hopefully in January.
Trouper415 where is my Z storm lol i want my Z storm where is it? i will give the Z storm $500 so he can go by me a lap top lol
where did you go Trouper415
billsfaninsofla you go live in hurricane alley not me lol
have any one see you no oh in the last few days i have not see him posting on the blog for a few days i hop he and his 4 year old is ok
Watching monday night football. Doesnt it seem like most the games this year are garbage? All blowouts or Cardnal/Lions games. I'm a 49er fan and maybe their 2-11 record is the reason. You a sports fan 88889?
Trouper415 no i am a sports fan have you see you no oh in the last few day i have noti hop he and his 4 year old are doing ok
oops i mean to say i am not sports fan
any no i am not a sports fan i do like the 49er and from time to time i do look at it a little bit
have any one see my friend hurricanechaser i have not see him on in the last few days when was the last time he was on the blog i hop his 4 year old is doing ok and he is doing ok as well so any no where he is?????????????????????????????????????????
So what up???? no comments on the global warming?????
Everyone needs to start realizing that is waht made this last season so severe..... & I think this is the start..
nah, it aint global warming. you dont have to worry much.
The only problem I have with the whole global warming theory affecting everything as we know it now is that we've been having cycles of global warming/ice ages throughout history. It's been shown that areas as far north as Ohio and Colorado were once tropical. At the same time there was an age when glaciers carved out the terrain in Ohio. I wonder if we existed during that time and glaciers started to melt if we were so quick to embrace this global warming is evil business.

*shrugs* While I don't doubt its existence, I seriously doubt it's the threat everyone makes it out to be...and even if it was, it's likely we're only hastening what would be an eventuality anyway

*drops his two cents in the bucket*
k..... finally some input at least!!!!!!!!!!!!!!lol
o.k. let me explain this.... I am 41 I have lived in Miami all my life.....Lets see there has been like 2 cat 5 storms that I remember... Man we had what 2-3 in 1 year??????????? along with all the other weather oddities!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Lets see... we had a storm hit Spain, we had a storm go back east at Africa, we had the storm south of Chile...(unheard of I might add) totally cold water, lots of shear so I think like I said we are in different times now. This is the starting phase of the global warming cycle that yes like u said is just being accelarated by us
lol & u know the history of the planet.... ice age is end result of warming.
The Dr. is supposed to post his comments on his blog. I am really really curious to see what he thinks about it.
Fshhead: everyone's asleep right around now; maybe try coming back in about 18 hours when it's more active (I don't know what time zone you live in).
Eh, I think peak oil's a lot more worrisome, though global warming's still really bad. At least peak oil would prevent people from pushing global warming to the "runaway" extent.
You say an ice age is the end result. I dont believe that is true. I take it you are following the global warming theory put in general terms, the scenerio of day after tomorow, ending in an ice age. However isnt that showing that as we emit C02 it gets warmer and storms come and then an ice age comes? According to how ice ages work, us emitting c02 wouldnt have an effect on the previous mentioned process. ice ages occur when the earth rotates on its axis every 40000 years or so, glaciers advance and retreat. I would say global warming only slightly warms our planet, not the end result of an ice age.
Hmmm not sure what this peak oil thing is???
But as far as the warming link I think that it is accelerated to fast there. It seems like it will be a gradual builup not all at once... At least not until it gets to real accelerated stages.
Ice age I am pretty sure is the end result.... the Earth gets so warm that it starts to cool itself. In turn going into ice age
Please go & comment in my blog, I am really trying to get a good debate going about this!! I feel as a species this is probably the most important thing we should be dealing with... As a planet not as countrys!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
where u guys from???? & have u seen any weird happenings with the weather.... We see it here as hurricaneslol obviously!!
Fshhead, what is your take on global warming.
It sure seems to me that we are in the beginning stages....
We are sure to see alot more wild weather in years to come unlees we start to change our energy policies!!!
Link
Seems to me that they seem to acknowledge it!!!!!
Alot of coincidences.... I dont think so..........
but this is my humble opinion!!!!!!!!!!!
"Earth has probably never warmed as fast as in the past 30 years - a period when natural influences on global temperatures, such as solar cycles and volcanoes should have cooled us down."

How do volcanos cool the earth?
I gotta say that down in the tropics we are starting to see the results of Atlantic going up 1 or 2 degrees in more intense & more frequent intense storms. Like I said I am 41, I have seen 2 cat 5 storms in my lifetime.until this year that is.... we had what 3-4 cat 5 storms in 1 season????? Unheard of if u ask me!!!
volcanoes cool by releasing all the ash into the atmosphere which forms shade, which cools
PROFESSIONAL storm-watchers looked on in shock and awe as hurricane Katrina devastated New Orleans. But what they are really worried about is a different storm, albeit one with a confusingly similar name - hurricane Catarina.

The reason is that Katrina, while strong, was far from unusual, as more powerful storms have struck the south-east coast of the US before. However Catarina, which struck southern Brazil in March 2004, is the first and only hurricane recorded in the South Atlantic, where the textbooks say hurricanes should not form. And some experts fear its appearance may be evidence that global warming is fuelling new and more extreme weather.

According to the UK Met Office's Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, based in Exeter, Catarina developed in a region of the South Atlantic that its climate models predict will eventually be the source of many hurricanes
The oceans of the world have gotten warmer since the 1940s. Furthermore, it has done so from the surface down towards the bottom of the three oceans, introducing the dimension of depth, something that was not previously actively considered when measuring ocean temperatures. Now the larger driver of the new climate oscillation is the heat we put into the oceans of the world. The world's increasing ocean temperatures have spawned ever-stronger ocean waves over the past 40 years. This energy increases as the oceans temperature rises, so the energy content of the tsunamis, hurricanes and typhoons also rises, said Sinyan Shen, Director of the GWIC in the U.S.
The American president shuts his eyes to the economic and human damage that the failure to protect the climate inflicts on his country and the world through natural catastrophes like Katrina
Wikipedia:

Hurricane Wilma is the 21st named storm and twelfth hurricane (both record-tying) of the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the third Category 5 hurricane of the season, beating the records set by the 1960 and 1961 seasons. It is the most intense hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, and the 10th most intense storm ever recorded in the world, the other 9 being typhoons. It also has the lowest [barometric] pressure ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere, a record previously held by Hurricane Gilbert, which was also formerly the most intense hurricane on record
It Is Global Warming Environment Science/Technology

With Hurricane Katrina, and now Rita, there's been a lot of discussion about whether global warming is to blame. Hurricanes seem to be increasing in intensity. Are they? Is normal cyclical variation to blame, or is it something else? Is it global warming?

An article by Webster et al in Science (link via The Oil Drum) looks at the annual percentage of hurricanes that are Category 4 or 5 hurricanes over the past 30 years and finds that the percentage has more than doubled, from about 16% in 1970-74 to about 36% in 2000-2004. More importantly, the percentage of hurricanes that are Category 4 or 5 has increased in all six ocean basins where hurricanes occur.

North Atlantic cyclical effects are often cited to make the case that what we are seeing is normal cyclical variation. The fact that the increased intensity is seen everywhere, though, not just in the North Atlantic, indicates a global cause. The only known candidate for such a global cause is global warming
Northern Hemisphere Past "Point Of No Return"? Environment

More and more often now, we read reports that global warming is accelerating faster than scientists had ever anticipated as feedback loops kick in. Here's another such story. This is the sort of thing that ought to be in the foreground of everyone's awareness, but won't be. We just don't have the attention span. Not yet anyway. The Independent:

A record loss of sea ice in the Arctic this summer has convinced scientists that the northern hemisphere may have crossed a critical threshold beyond which the climate may never recover. Scientists fear that the Arctic has now entered an irreversible phase of warming which will accelerate the loss of the polar sea ice that has helped to keep the climate stable for thousands of years.
They believe global warming is melting Arctic ice so rapidly that the region is beginning to absorb more heat from the sun, causing the ice to melt still further and so reinforcing a vicious cycle of melting and heating.

The greatest fear is that the Arctic has reached a "tipping point" beyond which nothing can reverse the continual loss of sea ice and with it the massive land glaciers of Greenland, which will raise sea levels dramatically.

Satellites monitoring the Arctic have found that the extent of the sea ice this August has reached its lowest monthly point on record, dipping an unprecedented 18.2 per cent below the long-term average.

Experts believe that such a loss of Arctic sea ice in summer has not occurred in hundreds and possibly thousands of years. It is the fourth year in a row that the sea ice in August has fallen below the monthly downward trend a clear sign that melting has accelerated. [...]

Sea ice naturally melts in summer and reforms in winter but for the first time on record this annual rebound did not occur last winter when the ice of the Arctic failed to recover significantly.

Arctic specialists at the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre at Colorado University, who have documented the gradual loss of polar sea ice since 1978, believe that a more dramatic melt began about four years ago.

In September 2002 the sea ice coverage of the Arctic reached its lowest level in recorded history. Such lows have normally been followed the next year by a rebound to more normal levels, but this did not occur in the summers of either 2003 or 2004. This summer has been even worse. The surface area covered by sea ice was at a record monthly minimum for each of the summer months June, July and now August.

Scientists analysing the latest satellite data for September the traditional minimum extent for each summer are preparing to announce a significant shift in the stability of the Arctic sea ice, the northern hemisphere's major "heat sink" that moderates climatic extremes.

"The changes we've seen in the Arctic over the past few decades are nothing short of remarkable," said Mark Serreze, one of the scientists at the Snow and Ice Data Centre who monitor Arctic sea ice. [...]

"This will be four Septembers in a row that we've seen a downward trend. The feeling is we are reaching a tipping point or threshold beyond which sea ice will not recover." [...]

Siberian Permafrost Melting Could Be "Tipping Point" For Global Warming Environment

This is truly ominous news. Guardian:

A vast expanse of western Sibera is undergoing an unprecedented thaw that could dramatically increase the rate of global warming, climate scientists warn today.
Researchers who have recently returned from the region found that an area of permafrost spanning a million square kilometres the size of France and Germany combined has started to melt for the first time since it formed 11,000 years ago at the end of the last ice age.

The area, which covers the entire sub-Arctic region of western Siberia, is the world's largest frozen peat bog and scientists fear that as it thaws, it will release billions of tonnes of methane, a greenhouse gas 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, into the atmosphere.

It is a scenario climate scientists have feared since first identifying "tipping points" delicate thresholds where a slight rise in the Earth's temperature can cause a dramatic change in the environment that itself triggers a far greater increase in global temperatures. [...]

The researchers found that what was until recently a barren expanse of frozen peat is turning into a broken landscape of mud and lakes, some more than a kilometre across.

Dr Kirpotin told the magazine the situation was an "ecological landslide that is probably irreversible and is undoubtedly connected to climatic warming". He added that the thaw had probably begun in the past three or four years.

Climate scientists yesterday reacted with alarm to the finding, and warned that predictions of future global temperatures would have to be revised upwards.

"When you start messing around with these natural systems, you can end up in situations where it's unstoppable. There are no brakes you can apply," said David Viner, a senior scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia.

"This is a big deal because you can't put the permafrost back once it's gone. The causal effect is human activity and it will ramp up temperatures even more than our emissions are doing." [...]

The permafrost is likely to take many decades at least to thaw, so the methane locked within it will not be released into the atmosphere in one burst, said Stephen Sitch, a climate scientist at the Met Office's Hadley Centre in Exeter.

But calculations by Dr Sitch and his colleagues show that even if methane seeped from the permafrost over the next 100 years, it would add around 700 million tonnes of carbon into the atmosphere each year, roughly the same amount that is released annually from the world's wetlands and agriculture.

It would effectively double atmospheric levels of the gas, leading to a 10% to 25% increase in global warming, he said. [...]

"If we don't take action very soon, we could unleash runaway global warming that will be beyond our control and it will lead to social, economic and environmental devastation worldwide," he said. "There's still time to take action, but not much.

"The assumption has been that we wouldn't see these kinds of changes until the world is a little warmer, but this suggests we're running out of time
This headline appeared in the London Independent in early February of 2005, following a conference at the Hadley Centre in Exeter, England, where 200 of the worlds leading scientists issued the most urgent warning to date: that dangerous climate change is taking place today, and not the day after tomorrow.

Floods, storms, and droughts. Melting polar ice, shrinking glaciers, oceans turning to acid. Scientists from the fields of glaciology, biology, meteorology, oceanography, and ecology reported seeing a dramatic rise over the last 50 years of all the indicators of climate change: increase in average world temperatures, extreme weather events, in the levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and in the level of the oceans.

The award winning environmental writer Geoffrey Lean wrote: Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less hospitable world . . . will puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked into disaster -- destroying the climate that has allowed human civilization to flourish over the past 11,000 years.

The overwhelming majority of scientists and international climate monitoring bodies now agree that climate change is taking place, that humans are responsible, and that time is running out. In fact, we could reach the point of no return in a decade, reported Lean.
Quite a few climate skeptics, fossil fuel executives, and members of the Bush administration are still denying that there is such a thing as human-caused global warming. Many of them claim that the sun has just grown hotter. However, a warmer sun would have heated the stratosphere as well. In contrast, the stratosphere is cooling -- suggesting a blanket of greenhouse gases that prevents the earths heat from radiating back into space.

Link

This link is a really good site that is simple to understand... Gives the big picture
Anybody notice the thousand mile line of pure geometry on the Atlantic infrared loop?
huh????????
would assume ur talkin about the cold front?? (our savior)
Look at the Atlantic infrared loop. It was posted on this blog by FLCrackergirl at 12:17 GMT. There is a straight line about 35 degrees from horizontal running for what looks to be about 800 miles with weather on one side, no weather on the other. Someone tell me what that is.
Yeah, I guess so.
dont see the crackergirl blog but, it sounds like the cold front.... has weather on right side, clear & cool conditions on left side!
I think its the edge of a cold front. . . not the leading edge, but maybe the trailing?
weather is really,really nice here in Miami.....Reminded me why I live here........
Appreciate your comments on global warming Fshhead. Like a lot of other matters of fact in this country, global warming is not considered by the American psyche. Won't be as long as the US exists.
I think this is the biggest issue happening on this PLANET!! We as a species need to recognize this & try to correct..... I just think we might have waited toooo long..............
The way I understand it, global warming increases the water vapor in the atmosphere, which creates more cloud cover, which then blocks( or reflects) the 8watts per square meter we receive from the sun. This starts a drop in surface temperature and we start an ice age
Fshhead- at the bottom of the blog you should have the option to 'view 50 comments' or 'view all comments' of the blog. Just click on 'view all comments'. Flcrackergirl's post is about 75 comments down.
read through some of my earlier comments & links. Also please I am trying to get a good debate going on my blog so please stop by & post... wether u agree with me or not...would love to hear both!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
lol got ya thanx globalize!
the thing to the right of cold front is supposed to be next storm developing!! (zeta pretty sure) but, cold front is going to kick it outta here
Global warming is not the whole of it, but a symptom of the overall destruction of the atmosphere, the end result being less water vapor and drastic extremes of temperature.
Scientific studies have indicated that the earth cycles between warm and cold periods (something to do with the sunspot cycle and our elliptical orbit). Right now, as I understand, we are supposed to me in an ice age, but because of the start of farming several thousand years ago, we have released an abundance of methane into the atmosphere. Methane has something like 30X the capacity of CO2 to retain heat. Because of our additional methane, as well as CO2, CO, NO2, etc, we have altered the natural cycle. When mankind started farming, the cooling cycle had already begun, but temperatures started climbing instead of dropping.
then ice age
yes semper, the start of the warming cycle
Yeah, to put it in a less complicated way, the activities of six thousand million humans are destroying the earth.
In the late eighteen hundreds, Krakatoa, a volcano in Indonesia, blew. It put enogh ash into the atmosphere to cause a 5-10 degree C drop worldwide. In the Eastern US, it was called 'The year without a summer.' If this one event had the ability to cool down the entire planet, what does 5000 or 10,000 years of farming, burning,and whatnot do?
Me living in Miami, are starting to feel the consequences of our foolish behavior, treating the planet like it has unexhaustable resouces & use it as a dumping ground for everything we do!!!!!
This headline appeared in the London Independent in early February of 2005, following a conference at the Hadley Centre in Exeter, England, where 200 of the worlds leading scientists issued the most urgent warning to date: that dangerous climate change is taking place today, and not the day after tomorrow.

Floods, storms, and droughts. Melting polar ice, shrinking glaciers, oceans turning to acid. Scientists from the fields of glaciology, biology, meteorology, oceanography, and ecology reported seeing a dramatic rise over the last 50 years of all the indicators of climate change: increase in average world temperatures, extreme weather events, in the levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and in the level of the oceans.

The award winning environmental writer Geoffrey Lean wrote: Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less hospitable world . . . will puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked into disaster -- destroying the climate that has allowed human civilization to flourish over the past 11,000 years.

The overwhelming majority of scientists and international climate monitoring bodies now agree that climate change is taking place, that humans are responsible, and that time is running out. In fact, we could reach the point of no return in a decade, reported Lean.
How about all the heat from all the engines in all the cars around the world? An internal combustion engine is only about 25-30% efficient, with the heater on. The rest of the energy from combustion is lost to the atmosphere in the form of heat. Where does all that heat go. Why, it stays around and makes the oceans and air temperature higher, which causes more water vapor, and thus more intense storms. . .that's my theory, anyway. :)
Well, cloud cover, like snow cover, has an insulating effect. For instance, watch how the temperature drops in Winter on a clear night as opposed to a cloudy one. Without clouds, the aura of atmospheric heat dissipates. And in the Summer, those same clouds help prevent the radiant effects of the Sun.
That tends to be what I believe
I think that is partially because water is so resistant to changes in temperature. In the winter, it holds the heat. In the summer, it reflects it.
Quite a few climate skeptics, fossil fuel executives, and members of the Bush administration are still denying that there is such a thing as human-caused global warming. Many of them claim that the sun has just grown hotter. However, a warmer sun would have heated the stratosphere as well. In contrast, the stratosphere is cooling -- suggesting a blanket of greenhouse gases that prevents the earths heat from radiating back into space.


The oceans of the world have gotten warmer since the 1940s. Furthermore, it has done so from the surface down towards the bottom of the three oceans, introducing the dimension of depth, something that was not previously actively considered when measuring ocean temperatures. Now the larger driver of the new climate oscillation is the heat we put into the oceans of the world. The world's increasing ocean temperatures have spawned ever-stronger ocean waves over the past 40 years. This energy increases as the oceans temperature rises, so the energy content of the tsunamis, hurricanes and typhoons also rises, said Sinyan Shen, Director of the GWIC in the U.S.
Fshhead- you are right about what is happening. Since there is no governing body for the world, and the most powerful nation in the world, and one of the most populous chooses not to recognize the fact of global warming, what is your proposal?
k......I'm really going to jump on the soapbox.....
1. We start to really push our govt. to acknowledge the warming
2. We get away from fossil fuels & move at least to ethanol
3. when the elections come up this year we elect some people that WILL start to do something like hmmmmm join the kyoto treaty & get in line with most of the world!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Well, temperature is described as the movement of atoms. The less atoms there are, the faster they go because thery're not 'bumping' into one another, and since they move faster, it has a higher temperature. That's why the corona of the sun is so much hotter than the suface. . . the atoms are much further apart. Perhaps the stratosphere isn't so much cooling, as it is getting denser with the particles and emmisions and greenhouse gasses. The denser a gas, the lower the (perceived) temperature.
one thing for sure, we will never change until the oil tycoons in the capitol are removed or are forced to move into action!!
Unfortunately, ethanol presently takes more energy to produce than is produced by its combustion. Not to mention, they still use fossil fuels to produce ethanol.
While we're at it, why don't we get rid of anything that uses COAL. Aren't we just a little beyond that, technilogically???
Hmmmm seems to me that isn't ethanol made out of plant waste????? Would at least be the 1st steppin stone!
Fshhead.. . I beleive it is made from corn and husks, but I'm not sure at 3 am :)
lol you know when I was a little kid..... we were supposed to be in flying cars & all that stuff... Man, we still using coal & oil to run our transportation. We are a long long way from flying cars LOL
yea ethanol made from corn & husk matter. Seems to me if we were growing our fuel & at the same time putting more plants on the planet we would be better off!!!!!!!!!!
Well, when we run out of oil, we can resort to wood burning, steam powered engines again. Not only will we deplete the oil reserves and cause global warming, but we will also destroy the one thing that might get us out of this mess; the forests.
personally I think we should be capitalizing on the solar energ, since there seems to be such an abundance of it these daysLOL (ozone depletion!)
When we humans do something, we do it all the way, or not at all!
Our understanding of temperature is relative to friction of heat. The movement of atoms defines heat, but the lack of heat is also defined as heat. Example, move around some freon atoms. The 'higher' science of slowing the movement of atoms is really less important than the world relative to 98.6 degrees of Fahrenheit temperature.
claap clap clap agreed semper & by the way we will run out of oil... noone thinkin of the consequences on the planet when that happens.... pretty sure it serves some purpose down there!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The technology for solar cells is still in its infancy. They are, what, 12% efficient??? The new carbon nanotubes do offer some hope. They recently found that if you putwires or something at the bottom of these tubes, they will collect electromagnetic (radio) waves. Well, visible light, infrared & UV, are all electromagnetic waves. Why can't they use those for solar cells???
gonna jump on my box again......
I cannot believe that this country thinks that going to alternative energy is gonna cripple this economy. It would only strenghten it when we become the forfront on all this technology & in turn sell it to the rest of the world. We could also possibly start changing the way the world views the U.S. these days. You know kinda embracing kyoto treaty instead of shunnin it.considering we are the worlds worst polluters!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I think the oil pressure downthere is partially reponsible for holding parts of up here up. If we remove it, we may fall down.
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!! u cannot tell me if this country put it's mind to it that they could not come up with better advances on the solar front
personally I think the oil acts like a lubricant for all the shifting plates in the world.... hmmmm seems like they just had some bad ones over in the East!
They just don't want to (the oil tycoons, that is). It would hurt Profits.
See.... thats the part that burns my butt, all of this because of greed & money!!!!!!!!!!!
& these people have huge families & they are settin them up for disaester. I dont have kids & I seem more concerned than they are!! all for a buck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr
The movement in this country is world corporate globalization of everything from banks to hamburger joints. Nearly every soul, from the truck driver to the office worker serves that movement. Now what does that have to do with environmental conscientousness?
Well, what happens to an engine when it runs out of oil??? It seizes up. But that's not all folks. When the engine seizes up, the other parts of the engine (piston rods, crank, etc) still want to keep moving, as well as the parts that still have some oil. So what happens, you might ask? Catastrophic failure. A piston rod snaps and shoots out the side of the engine because of a sudden release of energy. Now, if the plates are lubricated with the oil we pump out, what happens when the lubrication is gone? 10.2
Semper- true. And catastrophic failure is really what is needed for the good of the whole. But I'm worried because I don't have a fortified cave with losts of provisions to hide in with my family!
thats what I'm saying semper, I have knowledge of engines also..... I keep tellin people that fact all the time... I get blank stares in return... like no way thats gonna happen.... well I guess we gonna find out cause we are ravenous for oil & our thirst just gettin worse!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
There's always the mountains. . .fresh water, food, and the materials needed for a shelter. We just have to learn to be self-sufficient again. We have kinda forgot how to fend for ourselves in the last couple thousand years.
one thing the ancient civilizations were very intelligent about.... The fact of we have to live in HARMONY with the planet not trash it & deplete all the resources!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
American indians were very in tune with the Earth, they had the right idea for sure
We all seem (in the US anyway) to depend on that delivery truck at the grocery store to arrive on time. My friend doesn't depend on a car to get to work anymore. He told me that when the gas prices hit $2 a gallon, he was going to start riding a bike, and he did. That's at least a start.
I wish alot of what they believed would rub off on us
Semper, gotta say ur friend deserves a pat on the back for that. We gotta start somewhere!!
Ancient European civilizations did also. They worship Gaeus and Gaea (I think I speeled them right). Gaea was what we now call 'Mother Earth.'
They believed in the harmony between man and their environment, much like the native americans of north and south america did, and still do today.
yea semper alot of ancient civilizations believed this. Funny we are supposed to be so advanced but we forget all that stuff
Well, I think I'm going to call it a night. Had a long day yesterday, and I need some sleep. Good talking with you, and perhaps I will 'blog' with you later.
Good night.
This headline appeared in the London Independent in early February of 2005, following a conference at the Hadley Centre in Exeter, England, where 200 of the worlds leading scientists issued the most urgent warning to date: that dangerous climate change is taking place today, and not the day after tomorrow.

Floods, storms, and droughts. Melting polar ice, shrinking glaciers, oceans turning to acid. Scientists from the fields of glaciology, biology, meteorology, oceanography, and ecology reported seeing a dramatic rise over the last 50 years of all the indicators of climate change: increase in average world temperatures, extreme weather events, in the levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and in the level of the oceans.

The award winning environmental writer Geoffrey Lean wrote: Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less hospitable world . . . will puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked into disaster -- destroying the climate that has allowed human civilization to flourish over the past 11,000 years.

The overwhelming majority of scientists and international climate monitoring bodies now agree that climate change is taking place, that humans are responsible, and that time is running out. In fact, we could reach the point of no return in a decade, reported Lean.
The award winning environmental writer Geoffrey Lean wrote: Future historians, looking back from a much hotter and less hospitable world . . . will puzzle over how a whole generation could have sleepwalked into disaster -- destroying the climate that has allowed human civilization to flourish over the past 11,000 years.

The overwhelming majority of scientists and international climate monitoring bodies now agree that climate change is taking place, that humans are responsible, and that time is running out. In fact, we could reach the point of no return in a decade, reported Lean
later semper think im gonna hit it too very late here. lookin forward to talkin to ya more!!!!!!!!
oh!!! dont forget gang.... please stop by my blog & post comments on the global warming issue. Wether u agree with me or not!!!!!! Like I said maybe u can change my mind......but doubtful!!!!
Fshhead...

If you'd like to get in line with "the rest of the world", let's set up a dictatorship where you're executed for disagreeing with current administration.

All the climatological evidence shows an unusually quiet period for the past 10-11 thousand years. We've had very little temperature variance since the last Ice Age, and now we're going back to the normal. Bad as this year's hurricanes were, they could've been twice as bad (which is about as bad as it's possible to get) and they STILL wouldn't be a significant threat to the human race. COMBINED, every storm this year killed 4-5 thousand people. The tsunami (please explain how global warming caused this one) killed, what, 200,000+? The quake in Pakistan? Heck, given your likely liberal political views, the war in Iraq has killed many more if you count insurgents.

Remember, this planet has it's own systems to moderate temperature. The hurricanes this year cooled the waters significantly, converting heat energy to motion.The arctic ice IS a heat-sink, and it's taking a MASSIVE amount of heat to melt that ice, again moderating our climate. Fossil fuels aren't going away anytime soon. If you want to live in a country under Kyoto, I'll see you in China.

This is all I will say on the matter. Stop spamming the blog with articles which all say the same thing, unless you would like me to spam just as many denying human causes as part of global warming.
Okay, one more thing:

"Overwhelming majority of scientists agree..."

I laughed at that. I know quite a few, and though some will agree that we are PARTLY responsible, they also agree that this is mostly a natural cycle.

"oceans turning to acid"

......Okay, this is BEYOND ridiculous. Find me a scientific explanation for this and I'll rip it to shreds.
Where is this global warming. Snowing hard here and 18 degrees. Got to go and throw off 50 lobster traps onto my wharf. The fun never ends.
Good morning,

Haven't posted in a while here but do keep up a little. See we had a mostly one man show last night on "global warming"... Interesting the scientist have been telling us for 10 year (1995) we are once again in a very active stage like the the turn of the century, the 1920's and the 50-60's...that this active hurricane season is just the natural cycle of things.
We had really active seasons in the past that lasted for decades. We don't even know for sure if some of them were even worse than this year because we lacked the science we have today.
Just my opinion.

This morning in SE Florida, Broward County, we have beautiful Sunny skies but a little too cool for most of us.
Had to turn heater on this morning to knock the chill out of the house! But remember, we consider the temps in the 50s as very cold!
Got to go for now, will check back later.
Have a good day.
Gamma
On the contrary, I'm pretty sure the scientific consensus (in the "lack of substantial doubt in the majority of scientists" sense) is that much of global warming is human-induced. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change
"volcanoes cool by releasing all the ash into the atmosphere which forms shade, which cools"
I believe this is not true. That would be similar to saying something like the higher in elevation you go the hotter it gets becuase you are getitng closer to the sun. Maybe only a super volvano would have this ash colling effect, however a normal volcano continuously producing c02 would have a larger warming effect on the earth not cooling.
Colby great points
You guys gotta realize we as humans are not able to have a catastrophic impact on this earth unless it was detonating lots and lots of hydrogen bombs or something idiotic like that. I believe we may be warming the planet just a little, causing a slight rise in temperatures around the globe. However, this global warming is not going to have catastrophic impacts if we dont do anything about it. The real 'catastrophic' event as you call it will happen when the northern latitudes become much darker as the earth turns fully on its axis. Until then we're fine, although pollution is going to be bad in the future hehe.
Trouper - your comment on volcanoes was interesting. There have been documented cases where a severe volcanic eruption has altered the earth's climate. If I remember correctly, sometime in the 1800's a massive volcano erupted that sent volcanic ash high into the atmosphere so that it was able to circle the earth. Weather observations were able to determine that for 1 to 2 years, the earth's climate was significantly cooler. If you do a google search on "the year without a summer", that should provide you with more information. In short, while man can make a very small impact on the earth's climate. It's mother nature herself that can drastically change the climate any time she wants, and there's nothing that man can do about it.
HENSCOLASC, notice how i said super volcano. The average volcano, while we are talking about them, release c02 that warms the earth. probably .001 of all volcanic eruptions 'cool' the earth.
Someone who is advocating that our c02 emmisions over the last couple centuries have 'delayed an ice age, please answer this.

If Ice Ages are indeed caused by the Earth tilting on its axis so the northern latitudes tern darker and thus colder. Then how is our stopping of c02 emmissions going to keep us from having all these wacky and zany weather patterns occuring, followed by an ice age? For if we dont cause ice ages in the first place? whats it going to do to stop as much c02 emmision as possible? As the earth cooled back down, since we are 'in an ice age already,' wouldnt that send us into one faster? Seems like that wouldnt solve the problem. Fact of the matter is, humans cannot cause an ice age because they dont occur based on c02 emmisions, they occur because of the cyclical tilt in the earths axis every 40000 years or so.

I dont come here to say we shouldnt conserve our natural resouces. Pollution in many parts of the world are horrid and our ecological systems are a wreck. I will continue to educate the importance of using alternitive types of energy, beucause we gotta make a transition sometime. My geology teacher, who I respect very much, estimates that we will be out of oil by 2065. You guys heard any other guesses?

BB73
Fshhead wrote:

"personally I think the oil acts like a lubricant for all the shifting plates in the world.... hmmmm seems like they just had some bad ones over in the East!"

Either you are joking or you are ignorant of basic geology. Oil is contained entirely within the plates of the crust, far from the interface between the crust and the liquid mantle, on which the plates ride.
BTW, Colby...thanks for posting...you saved me quite a bit of typing. Folks, this is a WEATHER blog...there are plenty of other forums on which to discuss politics. HINT.
SemperScopusPrimus wrote:

"The denser a gas, the lower the (perceived) temperature."

Actually, temperature, including perceived temperature, of a gas is relative to the level of molecular motion in that gas, not its density. While it's true that as you cool a gas, it becomes more dense, the density is not what makes it feel cooler. You have cause and effect reversed.