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Why did Hurricane Ike get so large?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:40 PM GMT on September 18, 2008

Well, it's now day four of my promised 7-10 day lull in Atlantic hurricane activity. That prediction still looks reasonable. Heavy thunderstorm activity has begun to increase over the Lesser Antilles Islands, where a tropical wave is interacting with an upper-level low pressure system. This tropical wave is moving westwards at about 15 mph, and has an impressive surge of moisture with it, as seen on animations of total precipitable water from the University of Wisconsin CIMSS group. The region is under about 10-20 knots of wind shear, and probably won't be able to organize much today or Friday due to the shear and presence of the upper-level low pressure system. By Saturday, wind shear is expected to drop over the entire Caribbean, and the upper level wind flow becomes more anticyclonic. These are favorable conditions for tropical cyclone development, and we may have something develop by Sunday in the central or western Caribbean. The NOGAPS is the only major model predicting something will develop. However, most of the models are forecasting the development of a tropical depression off the coast of Africa early next week. I expect we will have Tropical Storm Kyle, either in the Caribbean or off the coast of Africa, by the middle of next week.


Figure 1. Hurricane Ike at 12:05 pm CDT September 12, 2008, as seen by NASA's Terra satellite. Image creidt: NASA Earth Observatory.

Why did Ike get so large?
Hurricane Ike grew unusually large, eventually filling up the entire Gulf of Mexico and becoming larger than Katrina. How did it get so big? Well, one theory is that the storm's passage over Cuba helped it to grow in size. During the day and half the eye of Ike traversed Cuba, the thunderstorm activity near the center was suppressed by land. However, a large portion of the storm was over the exceptionally warm waters of the Loop Current on either side of Cuba. Since the storm couldn't put any energy into intensifying and maintaining its core, the energy pulled out of the Loop Current went into expanding and intensifying the outer portions of the storm that were over water. When Ike finally emerged into the Gulf of Mexico, its scale had been reset to this new larger size, and the storm was able to maintain the new scale. A similar transition to a new larger scale also occurred to Hurricanes Katrina and Andrew after they passed over South Florida.

How you can help
The group of wunderground members that are spearheading their own Hurricane Ike relief effort, aimed at providing assistance and supplies to people that are not in the mainstream relief areas, have now raised $7700. The first relief truck with supplies is on the way to Texas. Deductions are tax-deductible, and can be made in several ways:

Patrap's wunderblog
www.stormjunkie.com
www.portlight.org

Of course, contributing to the Red Cross or your local church is another great way to help out. Thanks!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

As the greenhouse effect warms the oceans, hurricanes are forecast to get more intense. Kerry Emmanuel of MIT says hurricanes with pressures lower than 800 mb will be possible in the Gulf of Mexico by the end of the century, under medium global warming assumptions. However, maybe hurricanes will not get more powerful that way. Maybe, hurricanes will increase their power by becoming wider, broader storms. As more power from evaporation becomes available to intensify storms, maybe the way hurricanes will respond is to be more like Ike than Wilma. Maybe.

The part about available potential energy in the oceans increasing due to increase in temperature is true......Forecasting how one variable in weather(temp) will have on hurricane intensities for the future is not reliable......Lets assume the global wind pattern changes allowing for more shear to overtake the Atlantic....It doesn't matter if we have 100 deg F SSTs if the upper level environment is hostile.....Forecasting how the upper level environment will change due to increase in temperature by the end of this century is futile right now....The upper level environment is the most important factor with regards to hurricane forecasting....

Still working on hurricane forecasting tutorial......Conservation of energy and Newton's 3rd law protects us from run away warming, pressures, etc....There is an upper limit to many things in nature....
Quoting kmanislander:


What little vorticity there is is located much further N over the islands. Could be a tilted structure but if so the tilt would be quite severe.


Most models show a rather conducive environment for development.
Good Evening StormW! =)
504. kdav
well its now an invest so let the trackign begin if it develops.
Hi Kman, Surf - how's everyone this evening?

506. kdav
could be anotehr gulf storm.
Quoting conchygirl:
Kman, can would you please explain what it means if it is tilted?


Some systems are not stacked vertically. That means the center of the low at the surface is not right underneath the center in the upper levels. Picture a tornado that snakes down to the ground at an angle instead of being straight up and down. Tropical systems can be the same and we have seen that often this year.

If you may recall we have seen vortex messages that say " flight center within 5 nautical miles of surface center ". That means that if you looked stright down the system from above you would not be able to see the sea becasue the surface center was 5 miles away from the center the aircraft was seeing in the upper atmosphere.
Hold on guy's, the wave that the GFS has been constantly predicting to form is emerging. Very low one, gonna have trouble with rotation due to being near the Equator

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Hold on guy's, the wave that the GFS has been constantly predicting to form is emerging. Very low one, gonna have trouble with rotation due to being near the Equator



It won't emerge until later tomorrow...the bulk of it is still fairly well inland
Gustav will be retired and not used for the 2014 hurricane season It cost at least 15 billions damage in the u.s and was responsible for over a hundred kill .It was the worst hurricane to hit cuba ,more destructive and powerful than Michelle 2001 and Dennis 2005.
Quoting kmanislander:


Some systems are not stacked vertically. That means the center of the low at the surface is not right underneath the center in the upper levels. Picture a tornado that snakes down to the ground at an angle instead of being stright up and down. Tropical systems can be the same and we have seen that often this year.

If you may recall we have seen vortex messages that say " flight center within 5 nautical miles of surface center ". That means that if you looked stright down the system from above you would not be able to see the sea becasue the surface center was 5 miles away from the center the aircraft was seeing in the upper atmosphere.
Thanks, scary I think I understand as I've heard you talk a lot about the vertical stacking.
School in Galveston

The CMC is often the butt of jokes but it has had this run from very early today. Interesting

Link
Quoting stillwaiting:
thanks docta!!!!!I agree to a point I discuss the possiblity of a invest within the next 48hrs on my blog,due to sheer decreasing sooner than expected.....now we'll have to figure out the steering for the next 168-240hrs!!!!



decent call by mr.waiting!!!!,hows the wunderblog community this evening???I see vacations over just like i predicted in my blog yesterday!!!.....
futuremet, i posted the link in post 491, i also just sent you the wunderphoto page of the pic in mail =)

i hae to get off now, be back to check the invest before school tomorow
This may be a little off topic - but through various conversations with others, I've discovered that there are a group of people who follow this blog who have been bashed to death in the last week - namely insurance adjusters.

A lot of people have had a bad time with the insurance companies, especially with what they did during Katrina. That makes the insurance company the bad guy. Most adjusters are out there doing a very difficult job, dealing with people who many times are devastated. I've never met a "mean" adjuster in my entire professional career.

Maybe we should step back and put ourselves in their shoes. They have a job, that is controlled by others - its not like its their money to give out however they see fit - and no matter how many good one there are, the bad ones make their life miserable.

(not unlike being an attorney - lol)

I appreciate the adjusters I have worked with over the years, and hope that they survive the grueling hours, the sad stories, and the time away from their families while working in the hurricane areas this year.

Quoting conchygirl:
Thanks, scary I think I understand as I've heard you talk a lot about the vertical stacking.


Actually that would be a good thing because a tilted circulation is the sign of a poorly organized system that is unlikely to intensify quickly.
514. kmanislander

i dont like that run Kman
mjo have something to do w/this upswing???I think so!!!
Quoting zoomiami:
This may be a little off topic - but through various conversations with others, I've discovered that there are a group of people who follow this blog who have been bashed to death in the last week - namely insurance adjusters.

A lot of people have had a bad time with the insurance companies, especially with what they did during Katrina. That makes the insurance company the bad guy. Most adjusters are out there doing a very difficult job, dealing with people who many times are devastated. I've never met a "mean" adjuster in my entire professional career.

Maybe we should step back and put ourselves in their shoes. They have a job, that is controlled by others - its not like its their money to give out however they see fit - and no matter how many good one there are, the bad ones make their life miserable.

(not unlike being an attorney - lol)

I appreciate the adjusters I have worked with over the years, and hope that they survive the grueling hours, the sad stories, and the time away from their families while working in the hurricane areas this year.

Zoo - interesting perspective....contrary to what folks think, their lives are turned upside down.
Quoting will40:
514. kmanislander

i dont like that run Kman


I know. High pressure to the N would force a track through the high octane NW Caribbean and into the GOM. One good thing is we have had upwelling in the GOM which would act to slow the intensification process.
Heads up... NHC just assigned 93L to Atlantic Floater 1
Kman - can't you come up with a scenario that sends it harmlessly out to the North Atlantic?

lol
Quoting kmanislander:


Actually that would be a good thing because a tilted circulation is the sign of a poorly organized system that is unlikely to intensify quickly.
Scary meaning that I am beginning to understand and absolutely no knowledge. I understood that vertical stacking is what we do not want to occur.
im talking bout the one smashin here in NC
Quoting zoomiami:
Kman - can't you come up with a scenario that sends it harmlessly out to the North Atlantic?

lol


Maybe in Nov. LOL
526. conchygirl 1:39 AM GMT on September 19, 2008

Ah, ok.
Conchy: that would be osmosis - can't hang around without absorbing some of it.
Quoting kmanislander:


I know. High pressure to the N would force a track through the high octane NW Caribbean and into the GOM. One good thing is we have had upwelling in the GOM which would act to slow the intensification process.
... I heard one local met say tuesday that most of the Gulf waters have cooled as much as 3or4 degrees, because of upwelling is this possible? If so how much difference would this make in conditions for developing storms?
Well... for now the Infrared Channel 2 does give an clue of some Mid to Low level cyclonic turn starting or trying to get going.
Quoting tkeith:
... I heard one local met say tuesday that most of the Gulf waters have cooled as much as 3or4 degrees, because of upwelling is this possible? If so how much difference would this make in conditions for developing storms?


Yes, it is possible. Look at the difference between the GOM and the NW Caribbean with the TCHP.

Quoting kmanislander:
526. conchygirl 1:39 AM GMT on September 19, 2008

Ah, ok.
We all really appreciate you providing us your opinions on the disturbances......you are typically right on.
Beyond 25N in the GOM a hurricane would be unlikely to intensify much, if at all.
537. Vero1
93L QSCAT 19 Sept 01:42

535. conchygirl 1:46 AM GMT on September 19, 2008

Thanks. Seen too many I guess LOL
Quoting kmanislander:


Yes, it is possible. Look at the difference between the GOM and the NW Caribbean with the TCHP.



That upwelling really cooled things off in the GOM. Hopefully that will keep development slow and minimal!
how nuts can the nhc get??? 93L dos not look like march of any thing at all poor 93L
zoo...... thanks for putting me on the map. I told my wife that I would be someone someday. LOL
I'm sticking w/my prediction that the area near 25N,65W w/be our next TD and not 93L,although it should be a good race w/both area's getting a number!!!
537. Vero1 1:48 AM GMT on September 19, 2008

Quikscat missed 93L this evening. Your post is hard to read but that looks like the ascending pass from this morning.
ok - missed a few days...surfing back - anyone want to update me in the meantime?

545. KBH
Quoting StormW:
18Z run of the GFS shear forecast shows shear favorable just south of Hispaniola and Cuba for the next 78-96 hours, with hostile conditions just to the north of the projected path of 93L, the shear becoming unfavorable by 102 hours from the 18Z forecast period.

Storm, I see that 93L has been posted,.is this not the remnants of 92L that merged with the tropical wave and remained stagnant for afew days?, well actually dumping lots of rain over the Less. Ant.
no development beyond 25N - some blessing in that anyway
Quoting zoomiami:
no development beyond 25N - some blessing in that anyway


Umm, I didn't say that LOL
I see from you graphic, Kman the Carib. is still jet fuel... just lookin for somthing positive to hang on to i guess... hopefully the upper atmosphere will fail to get its act together...
550. kdav
yeah that quickscat shoiws no circulation.
Sorry - you're right - no great intensification of anything that gets that far

(should know better than to trade words with an attorney)
552. kdav
well it will have to deevlop before the dead zone or it will be a while.
Quoting tkeith:
I see from you graphic, Kman the Carib. is still jet fuel... just lookin for somthing positive to hang on to i guess... hopefully the upper atmosphere will fail to get its act together...


Unfortunately shear is falling rapidly in the Caribbean and 93L is sitting right underneath an anticyclone.

Link
551. zoomiami 1:56 AM GMT on September 19, 2008

LOL
555. KBH
Should 93L not be the remnants of 92L that has interacted with the wave and UL front? Seems to be increasing the stats as far as number of systems for this year.
On a more serious weather note - one of my main concerns since the beginning of this season is how rapidly disturbances can intensify. That makes it even more difficult to properly forecast intensity, and to allow for proper warnings in affected areas.

A very large group of people in So Fla are aware of this, and have made an effort for the last few years to prepare for a storm as if it could be 1 or 2 categories above what's being called for. This allows for any surprises.
Heavy thunder and lightning here now so will come back on as soon as conditions improve.
LOL


invests aren't systems
Presslord posted in here today that StormJunkie was going to be on local TV tonight in S.C. he put the stations web adress on there too. Anyone happen to have that?
Quoting RitaEvac:










can't say anything but horrible, horrible situation.
Good evening zoo..hope all is well. Got caught in the storm today..though the other day with the lightening storm was so much worse (though I will take it over a tropical system anyday!).
Hi Pandora: the storms have definitely been out of the ordinary lately. It used to be that they came up just like clockwork around 3:00, lasted a little while and went away. There have been a whole series of thunder storms before noon this week, some of them quite severe.

Must make the kids at school antsy.

I just wanted to say that I was reading this blog religiously following Ike prior to the hurricane and after six days without power, we just got our power restored tonight.

It's still bad in Houston with 55 percent of the city without power. But I think the city officials, Center Point Energy, and the federal authorities are doing a wonderful job and this city will be back better and wiser in the future.

Thanks again to everyone on this blog for all of your expertise and well wishes.




some of the affects from Typhoon Sinlaku in Taiwan.

(landslide and flash flooding)

*Images from blogger TyphoonHunter
Quoting kmanislander:
Heavy thunder and lightning here now so will come back on as soon as conditions improve.


Can you in your opinion give me your best guess about developing this system! Always appreciate your take on things.
Quoting presslord:
it's www.wcsc.com....not sure about live feed....gonna be on @ 11p EDT....
found it. press also said HE was going to be interviewed on a radio show tommorow... said he had the perfect face for radio or something like that...lol... J/K
567. kdav
i dunno about the system as convection has leesened which is expected during dmin. however it has a long ways to go but something worth watching.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


some of the affects from Typhoon Sinlaku in Taiwan.

(landslide and flash flooding)
Sad........good to let us all remember that we aren't the only ones dealing with these things. Keep positive thoughts.
if he weren't so ugly I'd be a lot more nervous about sending my wife off with him....www.wcsc.com....
Quoting presslord:
if he weren't so ugly I'd be a lot more nervous about sending my wife off with him....www.wcsc.com....
Wondered about you sending your wife off with another guy. LOL
whooopie!!! SJ is a T.V. celebrity! Hope someone posts the interview. I am mostly away from computer for the next few days...

On the road.... *think Willie Nelson!* LOL On the road again!.....

SJ, I want to see the video!!! Promise!!?!?!?
Zoo, it sure does make them ansty. I have one that is scare of the dark and I have no window. I do not want to have her in my class if the lights go out (though I have solved that with a wisp battery candle..I turn it on when she is there). Then you have those that complain about no PE! (lol) But storms have been in the AM and with such energy.
Ok this is going to rather odd, but...

when Ike first developed there was two invest systems together, it seemed as if these two got together..

I don't mean as one, it seemed there was the two spinning around the same point -a- axes, later when hanna was in ike's way, the doctor told us that one system could not digest the other and they would end up "spinning" around fighting for the same source but never joining to make a larger storm....

ike when he first showed, looked like a TALL narrow yin and yang symbol, almost like there was the two system spinning around each other.

if the two invest system got together...and started the fight early on, could this explain how Ike managed to be what he was...before coming into the islands.

looking back at the sat pics of ike, from the day he showed, he seemed a "little" different and acted differently than a "normal hurricane" all the way across the ocean.

any one understand what I saw?

564. HadesGodWyvern 9:08 PM CDT on September 18, 2008...BTW Hades I work with 3 Japanese engineers they have been turned on to WU and were surprised to see bloggers( you primarily ) post reports on storms in the far east. They are ardent fans of the blog and all three speak and read very good english...
Quoting zoomiami:
On a more serious weather note - one of my main concerns since the beginning of this season is how rapidly disturbances can intensify. That makes it even more difficult to properly forecast intensity, and to allow for proper warnings in affected areas.

A very large group of people in So Fla are aware of this, and have made an effort for the last few years to prepare for a storm as if it could be 1 or 2 categories above what's being called for. This allows for any surprises.


Zoo, I gotta agree with you. I know everyone over in this area is doing just that. Everyone seems to be much better prepared overall, which is great to see.
Quoting KBH:
Should 93L not be the remnants of 92L that has interacted with the wave and UL front? Seems to be increasing the stats as far as number of systems for this year.


I guess that you are one of those who believe that hurricane activity has not really increased since 1995 because the NHC is "padding the stats", so to speak, right? Or that you know more than the NHC?

577. Vero1
Quoting kmanislander:
537. Vero1 1:48 AM GMT on September 19, 2008

Quikscat missed 93L this evening. Your post is hard to read but that looks like the ascending pass from this morning.

Current Storm over Atlantic Ocean

Storm 93


QSCAT Sept 19 01:42UTC Ascending



QSCAT Sept 19 01:42UTC Descending


http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/qscat08091901_93as.png

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/qscat08091901_93ds.png
I'm on the phone with SJ....channel 5 is gonna try to put it on youtube tonight....I assure you y'all will know the instant it posts..
For those in Texas - Texas Workforce is providing Disaster Unemployment Assistance - here's the link: http://www.twc.state.tx.us/news/press/2008/091508press.pdf
Just looked at the latest 850 mb vort signature for 93L. It has improved significantly in a short time. However, still further N, but not as much as before, from the estimated center of what could only be described as a broad surface low at this time.

Link
577. Vero1 2:22 AM GMT on September 19, 2008

Is that a stitched image for the descending pass ?. The pass I have seen is cut off near Barbados
Quoting WxLogic:
Heads up... NHC just assigned 93L to Atlantic Floater 1

2 things wrong with that floater
1.wrong date it says sept 13
2.thats the wrong area
583. KRL
Looks like some Galveston homeowners are going to get bad news.

"Hundreds of people whose beachfront homes were wrecked by Hurricane Ike may be barred from rebuilding under a little-noticed Texas law. And even those whose houses were spared could end up seeing them condemned by the state.

Now here's the saltwater in the wound: It could be a year before the state tells these homeowners what they may or may not do.

Worse, if these homeowners do lose their beachfront property, they may get nothing in compensation from the state.

The reason: A 1959 law known as the Texas Open Beaches Act. Under the law, the strip of beach between the average high-tide line and the average low-tide line is considered public property, and it is illegal to build anything there."
Quoting btwntx08:

2 things wrong with that floater
1.wrong date it says sept 13
2.thats the wrong area


Floater looks fine to me

Kman: do you have a generator system for your home?
I would not be surprised to see the coordinates for 93L shifted N near 15 or 16N
Quoting conchygirl:
Positive thoughts.....Kyle sounds calm and relaxing so hopefully nothing bad will come from him!


Ike is the lil borther of Kyle from south park if I am not mistaken. That is kind of ironic.
Have a good night folks and I will be here tomorrow morning with full analysis on freshly-designated Invest 93L, potential future action, and forecasts for Florida as I see a cold front moving through the state late next week.
Quoting kmanislander:


Floater looks fine to me


look at the date again
and the corridnates is 20n to 25n...93L is around 14-15n
Quoting zoomiami:
Kman: do you have a generator system for your home?


No I do not. Thinking about one though, although as close as I am to the sea if I get any surge, running a generator may not be the smartest thing to do !
Reading about the people still without electric, and all of the various problems this causes, with gas station availability, groceries, and basic services, it seems to me that the single biggest issue after a storm is the lack of electricity.

I know that many people now have generators here in So Fla, particularly after 2005 -

So it makes sense that for those of us in hurricane prone areas a generator is almost a necessity. Other people I know that have homes in some of the islands have generators, as they say that the electrical system isn't always reliable.
592. Vero1
Quoting kmanislander:
577. Vero1 2:22 AM GMT on September 19, 2008

Is that a stitched image for the descending pass ?. The pass I have seen is cut off near Barbados
Not sure.

Ascending: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/qscat08091901_93as.png

Desending: http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/storm_at_image21/qscat08091901_93ds.png
Quoting btwntx08:

look at the date again
and the corridnates is 20n to 25n...93L is around 14-15n


The floater I posted says 19th Sept and the coordinates are correct. Shows the system well to the SE of PR
Sorry, guys and gals. Haven't been on all day. Yeah. Blog withdrawls... LOL. Ok, now we have 93L. When did this one form?
Quoting StormW:
430. zoomiami 9:03 PM EDT on September 18, 2008
ok - 'fess up - who stirred up the storms? suppose to be closed for the season...


You wouldn't believe me if I told ya!


John Madden?

;-)
zoo...one of my fondest post Hugo memories: about two and a half weeks after the storm I had a bourbon and Coke,......with ICE!!!!!!! I can still feel how good that was......ICE!!!!!
We also have a series of gas stations and grocery stores who have generator back up, so we can get back up to some type of normal faster.

Almost all large businesses also have them.

Lessons learned after going through what the Houston area is going through.

Any other areas that have this type of backup out there?
Navy has 93L up as a 1010 mb low
Quoting presslord:
zoo...one of my fondest post Hugo memories: about two and a half weeks after the storm I had a bourbon and Coke,......with ICE!!!!!!! I can still feel how good that was......ICE!!!!!
Press what was the bridge taken out by Hugo?
hey Press - I'm sure that will stand out forever!

After Andrew I was lucky - my mom's house came back up with the first set of homes (she lived a lot closer to the everglades and further north) Which was great for me - we had two babies.

I can't imagine not having a generator now though.
602. 7544
hi everyone does anyone have the link to the msu5gfs run that was posted the moe page dosent show it for the exp. models thanks
evening everyone...

press...wasn't that the ben sawyer bridge that hugo took out? long time ago
INV/93L/23

Hello everyone..
ok...did the blog freeze or did it get quiet?
Quoting stillwaiting:
I'm sticking w/my prediction that the area near 25N,65W w/be our next TD and not 93L,although it should be a good race w/both area's getting a number!!!
just looked at it maybe you're on to something. it's persistant
601. fire831rescue

ROFL...I'm waiting on the Emeril version.......BAM!
Quoting kmanislander:


The floater I posted says 19th Sept and the coordinates are correct. Shows the system well to the SE of PR

do u need ike's glasses arghh it says sept 13 the one u posted
press...you still here?
sept 13 all gone...lol
actually that floater is from ex92L but they haven't that yet
tigger had it...Ben Sawyer....
Guess Kman and I are wearin' the same glasses :P

Says......the 19th
Although IR loops are notoriously poor for identifying the center of a weak system at night, from looking at the loop it would appear that the surface low is near 13N 60W while the mid level rotation is further N near 15.

Well we will know more tomorrow so I am out for tonight. Have a good evening all. It's pouring here so will catch some zzzzs while it is raining LOL
press, you gonna be at the office tomorrow? gonna stop by with 1/2 a van loaded with stuff for the truck
Quoting CaptnDan142:


John Madden?

;-)
Hey john madden ain't he the guy with that julian guy that thought up the oscillation thingy lol
Quoting tiggeriffic:
evening everyone...

press...wasn't that the ben sawyer bridge that hugo took out? long time ago
... the reason i asked Tigger, the company I work for rebuilt a bridge after Hugo. I didnt work for the company then but I've heard some of the old timers talk about it..
I do know the difference between a "9" and a "3".

Here

Link
Could you imagine John Madden forecasting the weather. You wouldn't be able to see the map for all the yellow markings. He loves that yellow pen... LOL.
yep...ben sawyer bridge was sticking straight up in the air...kind of like a draw bridge but did not lift up in the middle, it turned on a pedistal...untill the storm, then one end up in the air and the other in the water...wicked sight

then ur glasses r no good
it says sept 13 2345utc..btw that is EX92L they haven't fix that yet
Quoting fire831rescue:


"Well, you got this little blob thingy over here and you got that low wind thingy over there. And coupled with that warm stuff in this area circled here, you get one of those big, whirley thingies. Pretty soon, that big, whirley thingy winds up somewhere in here and BOOM! There you have it, folks." LMAO.



Uh huh... I had heard rumors that he had been oscillating again.
Quoting kmanislander:
Although IR loops are notoriously poor for identifying the center of a weak system at night, from looking at the loop it would appear that the surface low is near 13N 60W while the mid level rotation is further N near 15.


Exactly what I was thinking. Right under that weak semi-anti-cyclone (eek).
Y'all are trippin'.........lol

ummmm, the link I clicked from Kman says 19...and I have 20/15 vision...
Quoting tiggeriffic:
yep...ben sawyer bridge was sticking straight up in the air...kind of like a draw bridge but did not lift up in the middle, it turned on a pedistal...untill the storm, then one end up in the air and the other in the water...wicked sight


Seeing that image for the first time terrified me, I still get a weird feeling when I remember it!
Quoting btwntx08:

then ur glasses r no good
it says sept 13 2345utc..btw that is EX92L they haven't fix that yet


Go to this page for the floater.

good night all

Link
630. Vero1
Quoting btwntx08:

then ur glasses r no good
it says sept 13 2345utc..btw that is EX92L they haven't fix that yet


Floarter 1: Sep 19, 08 01:45UTC


19th :P
623. btwntx08

even thatone says the 19th lol
rofl @ even that one
Quoting btwntx08:

then ur glasses r no good
it says sept 13 2345utc..btw that is EX92L they haven't fix that yet


Press "Refresh" if it hasn't updated.
Quoting kmanislander:
I do know the difference between a "9" and a "3".

Here

Link

it says a 3 clearly
ocean...scariest sight for me after the storm was walking outside to the back of the apt complex where I lived and saw an entire upstairs apartment gone...2x4 studs still there, appliances still there, clothes in the closet were there...no outter walls, sheet rock, roof, ceiling, nothing....it almost looked like something from a horror movie
Ever have the feeling your chain is being pulled LOL

Catch you all tomorrow
638. Vero1
Floater 1 Sep 19 08 01:45UTC

635. btwntx08

thats a 9 fo sho
93l will not develop looks terrible
93L has alot of shear currently...but shear should relax as moves anywhere west.
See if this one has the right date on it:

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
don't know why everyone else's on the blog says 19 then...ummm...maybe your computer needs to be updated...J/K...ROFL
btn? Here >>> Link
Well, ya'll. I'm out for the night. I'll have an update on 93L, if it's still there, in the morning.
ok i checked different images and it has some 19th but not all the floaters have updatedimg src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ft-l.jpg"
649. Vero1
Quoting will40:
623. btwntx08

even thatone says the 19th lol


NOW is Sept 19 and the time is 03:01GMT = UTC
Quoting btwntx08:

it says a 3 clearly
just clicked kman's link says 19th
wow. looks like 2 areas to watch, the one by 25n and the one by 13n
LOL, btn? I dont know what's up with yours, but I copy/pasted that link you just posted and it says......
SEP 19
Quoting tiggeriffic:
ocean...scariest sight for me after the storm was walking outside to the back of the apt complex where I lived and saw an entire upstairs apartment gone...2x4 studs still there, appliances still there, clothes in the closet were there...no outter walls, sheet rock, roof, ceiling, nothing....it almost looked like something from a horror movie


WOW, I assume the people that lived there had evacuated beforehand(I hope so). Clothes still in the closet?? super spooky, I would have freaked out.
ok...got the news on...waiting for SJ...
652. BajaALemt

lmaooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo
Link
test ur knowledge look at this one first
We were in N. Charleston on Dorchester Rd. No one there under mandatory evac...another apartment had an I beam sent thru it from the carwash next to the complex...and the people just went back in after the eye went over and had laid down in the hallway...beam went thru about 1 foot above their head thru 2 walls to the hallway...imagine if they had not laid down.
Gang are we not suppose to be entering a phase of LaNina this winter......
656.

that one says sept 19 on my puter
SJ on right now
655. will40

hehehehehehe
and check this one as well...see the difference from the same floater
Link
this is awesome...so many supplies for the disabled on the first truck
656. btwntx08

That DOES say the 13th
661. BajaALemt

was gonna send you a mail then i says naw lol
that one says the 19th on my puter too
662. btwntx08

SEP 19
93L WILL NOT DEVELOP T IS VERY DISORGANIZED AND Even if it develops weak TD at most
664. BajaALemt damn on mine it still said 19 lol
665. will40

LOL! I even answer mine :)) :))

That ONE link btn posted DID say the 13th tho...weird
the answer post#656 says 19th the other one post#662 says the 13th get it
hold on system we still trying to find out what day it is lol
669. will40

*runs virus scanner* :)) :))
669. will40 11:11 PM EDT on September 18, 2008
664. BajaALemt damn on mine it still said 19 lol


Heck mine poped up with a cow that says eat more chicken....LMAO
im telling you they alllllllllllllllll are saying 19th on mine
Quoting will40:
hold on system we still trying to find out what day it is lol
LOL
Quoting btwntx08:

do u need ike's glasses arghh it says sept 13 the one u posted
aaargh btwntx08, I think you need glases, it clearly says Sept 19, as does KEEPERS.
That IS weird btn.... I clicked on all the images/loops for 93L's floater and they all said the 19th *shrugs*
btw...
the link you posted on 662 has 19 on my puter, the link you posted on 656 has 19 on my puter.. don't know the problem you are having but BOTH posts say the 19 on mine
they may have modified they floater by now lmao
Gremlin
buenos noches StormW..
674. TampaSpin

ROFLMAO!!!!
Blog update

CMC 00Z.. shows the possibility of a major system off the East Coast.

East CONUS, Carols

Present Satellite picture of BOC/Caribbean

The Next Train.. is this it?
ok, not going to argue any more...press...if you are still here...will be by tomorrow with supplies for the truck...if you have to leave the office unattended...please give me a call so I can get them to you...

Nite ALL
Quoting TampaSpin:
Gang are we not suppose to be entering a phase of LaNina this winter......


The pattern is still strongly suggestive of La Nina, even if Pacific SSTs are near neutral (but cooling again); some of the indices are even still strongly reflective of La Nina, for example, the ESPI (tropical rainfall patterns) still shows strong La Nina conditions (it hasn't even shown any signs of weakening yet, closely resembles the progression during 1998-2000; see chart at the bottom in link). There is also the SOI, which as risen to levels comparable to that earlier this year (and that included a record high for February):

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us
Nite, Smiley :)
93L initial outlook posted...
on mine some say 13th and some 19th
#667 no u need glasses some still say 13 on mine and on keepers as well
This is like..."Who's on First" :))
691. BajaALemt

He is on13th
I'm there tigger...all day....sj was awesome....
Quoting BajaALemt:
This is like..."Who's on First" :))

The Mrs is always first :)
ROFLMAO !!!!!! Link
687. MichaelSTL 11:17 PM EDT on September 18, 2008

So if we will be in LaNina phase.....that would put the SE warmer that normal not cooler than normal.......those conditions nearly always pan out......
694. Orcasystems

Evenin Mr.....Orca :P
the floater page tend to do that when you don't clear your internet cache.
Orca take it easy on da carols
Quoting Orcasystems:
Blog update

CMC 00Z.. shows the possibility of a major system off the East Coast.

East CONUS, Carols

Present Satellite picture of BOC/Caribbean

The Next Train.. is this it?


Certainly looks like the locamotive is full of fuel.....
Quoting will40:
Orca take it easy on da carols


I like the carols.. nice people live there.. oh and Presslord is there also.
i cuncur bud :-)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Certainly looks like the locamotive is full of fuel.....


I was looking at some of the long range models.. and it looks like it will be a train also.
Somebody! Stop that Choo Choo! We said no more storms!
Quoting Orcasystems:


I was looking at some of the long range models.. and it looks like it will be a train also.
orca...you're just jealous cause I'm gettin rid of the wife for a few days.....and you're not....
Quoting TampaSpin:
687. MichaelSTL 11:17 PM EDT on September 18, 2008

So if we will be in LaNina phase.....that would put the SE warmer that normal not cooler than normal.......those conditions nearly always pan out......


Warmer overall, yes; but also an increased chance of cold air outbreaks. The NAO has also been negative lately, which would also tend to increase the chances of cold air outbreaks (according to this).
703. Orcasystems 11:26 PM EDT on September 18, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:


Certainly looks like the locamotive is full of fuel.....


I was looking at some of the long range models.. and it looks like it will be a train also.



whats more concerning is it will be right in the middle of the height of the return of MJO also.........not good....but, very hard for storms to march all the way across this time of year without going fishing..
Quoting presslord:
orca...you're just jealous cause I'm gettin rid of the wife for a few days.....and you're not....


I thought you would take that last deal I offered.

Beachfoxx... all I promised was I would not say GOM....
Only you! LOL Perfect video! LOL BTW YGM.... Geez, it is almost OCT... so will see you soon!
Quoting BajaALemt:
ROFLMAO !!!!!! Link
Hey guys,
just wanted to drop by and say my MIL finally got power tonight!! It is 19 days since Gustav hit and they have been out of power ever since. Although they have power, just a quarter of a mile down the road where I work, we are still WITHOUT power and will not see power at work until sometime for the first week of October. Port Fourchon and Grand Isle are looking at sometime around Mid October before they have electricity! So, I understand your pain people in Texas!! It takes a long time, but you will manage. We have faith in you all and you all have our prayers!!!
Quoting TampaSpin:
703. Orcasystems 11:26 PM EDT on September 18, 2008
Quoting TampaSpin:


Certainly looks like the locamotive is full of fuel.....


I was looking at some of the long range models.. and it looks like it will be a train also.



whats more concerning is it will be right in the middle of the height of the return of MJO also.........not good....but, very hard for storms to march all the way across this time of year without going fishing..


If you look at the CMC,, it picks one up fairly soon.. and takes it on a well known track.. close to Zoomiami before turning up the eastern Seaboard
Bad Boys! Bad! What's wrong w/ the wives??? I think the women/wives are wonderful! LOL
Quoting presslord:
orca...you're just jealous cause I'm gettin rid of the wife for a few days.....and you're not....
Quoting MichaelSTL:


Warmer overall, yes; but also an increased chance of cold air outbreaks. The NAO has also been negative lately, which would also tend to increase the chances of cold air outbreaks (according to this).


No Michael i agree with all this.......i realize that there will be extreme weather during LaNina phases in the SE. Im just saying the overall temps should be above normal..
Orca, just stop tooting that train's horn! No More storms... Atlantic or GOM! I am tired! LOL
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Bad Boys! Bad! What's wrong w/ the wives??? I think the women/wives are wonderful! LOL


Do you want mine?
712. Beachfoxx 11:31 PM EDT on September 18, 2008
Bad Boys! Bad! What's wrong w/ the wives??? I think the women/wives are wonderful! LOL
Quoting presslord:
orca...you're just jealous cause I'm gettin rid of the wife for a few days.....and you're not....


Whats the secret please tell me how to make it happen.......LMAO
Tampa....she's going to Houston with SJ....
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Orca, just stop tooting that train's horn! No More storms... Atlantic or GOM! I am tired! LOL


I might remind you... if we are not talking about the weather.. we could get in trouble for being off topic.. so I am being good and talking about the weather. We all know I am sweet and innocent and follow the rules :)
Uh, Oh, ehmmmm, I am a wife and I think/know I am wonderful! ROFLMAO

Is that the answer you are looking for? ha! ha! ha!

Quoting TampaSpin:
712. Beachfoxx 11:31 PM EDT on September 18, 2008
Bad Boys! Bad! What's wrong w/ the wives??? I think the women/wives are wonderful! LOL
Quoting presslord:
orca...you're just jealous cause I'm gettin rid of the wife for a few days.....and you're not....


Whats the secret please tell me how to make it happen.......LMAO
Quoting TampaSpin:
712. Beachfoxx 11:31 PM EDT on September 18, 2008
Bad Boys! Bad! What's wrong w/ the wives??? I think the women/wives are wonderful! LOL
Quoting presslord:
orca...you're just jealous cause I'm gettin rid of the wife for a few days.....and you're not....


Whats the secret please tell me how to make it happen.......LMAO


WU wife exchanging.........hum what a novel thing to think of....not sure who would get the best deal tho.....ROFLMAO
Link

Scroll through the list of videos. There is a two part interview with KHOU chief meteorologist Gene Norman and the current director of the NHC discussing his impressions of Ike, etc. I haven't seen the whole thing yet, just what they showed on tonight's news. Some of the interesting remarks are comparisons between Ike and the 1900 storm (track, size, intensity, and particularly storm surge) as well as what might need to be done with the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Quoting presslord:
Tampa....she's going to Houston with SJ....


I offered you mine, and a 6 pack of Canadian beer.... you still ignored the offer.

Tim, do you want her.. same deal.. bottles are returnable for the deposit... hehe she is not :)
Quoting presslord:
orca...you're just jealous cause I'm gettin rid of the wife for a few days.....and you're not....
\\You better not let the cat out of the bag too soon. LOL
718. presslord 11:35 PM EDT on September 18, 2008
Tampa....she's going to Houston with SJ....


Press just keep in mind. They claim everything is bigger in Texas....ROFLAMO
Well, maybe... Does she cook, clean, do laundry, etc... and expect little in return?
Oh My Gosh... BAD GIRL, BAD GIRL... SHAME ON ME...

BTW the weather in Birmingham, AL is beautiful! Cool, low humidity. quite surprising!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Do you want mine?
hello all, looks like we might have a choo choo ride in the upcoming week! lol
Quoting Orcasystems:


I offered you mine, and a 6 pack of Canadian beer.... you still ignored the offer.

Tim, do you want her.. same deal.. bottles are returnable for the deposit... hehe she is not :)


OH hell no you don't.....i will keep the beer tho....please send the beer.....lol
Hi. I've been lurking around here since Katrina. I live in Houston and want to thank Dr. Masters and the whole gang for your updates, advice and comic relief. Thanks to your "pegging" Ike so far in advance (with room for error, of course), I was able to stock up on supplies long before the rest of Houston realized the storm was headed for us. We didn't run out of food, ice or water. We're lucky to be in an area that had restored power on Sunday -- internet, phone and TV just came back today. But not everyone was so lucky. There are so many people here who need your prayers.

Thanks again!
Quoting BKeen12:
hello all, looks like we might have a choo choo ride in the upcoming week! lol


Choo Choo
Quoting Orcasystems:


I might remind you... if we are not talking about the weather.. we could get in trouble for being off topic.. so I am being good and talking about the weather. We all know I am sweet and innocent and follow the rules :)


Right !!!!
ooops, scratch that... I did not post that. Its gone. Poof*
732. Beachfoxx 11:42 PM EDT on September 18, 2008
ooops, scratch that... I did not post that. Its gone. Poof*


Dam i wish it was that easy........lol
Quoting flaboyinga:


Right !!!!


See... I am glad I am not the only one who thinks I am sweet and innocent ;)
sorry if dup.. don't see my post.. but was wondering about two things. WHY the lack of coveage of the damage from IKE. If I didn't come to this page I would think there wasn't much damage from IKE?? and aslo does anyone know the effect IKE had on the GOM dead zone?
Darn they saying on the news that the : peninsula may be public property according to an old Law
Quoting Orcasystems:


See... I am glad I am not the only one who thinks I am sweet and innocent ;)


Wow there certainly is alot of BS on this blog tonite.......lmao
Quoting Orcasystems:


See... I am glad I am not the only one who thinks I am sweet and innocent ;)


RIGHT !!!!!!!
Hi folks,
Well, its halftime in the tropics..
Second half about to start.
What Orca said is to be watched down the line...choo choo, hopefully not
Immediately, 93L has some tough going to develop
Keep an eye on potential 94L at 23-25N/67-68W with a chance for LLC to occur in the next day or so. Convection is to the Northeast at present but just an area of concern..
734. Orcasystems

*coughs*

741. IMA
725. TampaSpin Yeeehaaaww! Yep, don't see me offerin' to swap my husband, do ya? Actually, that's only 'cause I'm smart. See, if I'm lucky enough to get rid of 'em, I don't want another in exchange ;)

I have a ? about anticyclones, I really do. I'm just not sure I'm alert enough to ask phrase it right. What determines the duration of anticyclonic flow? What can potentially disrupt it?
Nice to see some of the regs on this board again... btw thanks for all the Ike info it was a big help here in Houston!
743. IMA
729. Aggie93 Glad all went well for you and yours!

Gig 'em!
I think I just injured myself... fell out of chair, arms & legs flying every where! LOL All while watching the weather channel, so that I could be politically correct on WU!

ROFLMAO *bruised, black & blue!
Quoting flaboyinga:


RIGHT !!!!!!!
Quoting BajaALemt:
734. Orcasystems

*coughs*



Hmm now where did I put that Vicks Vapor rub?
Ahh right next to my Halo Polish :)

OK, back to the weather... which is going to be first. There are a bunch of minor startups in th BOC and Carib, but the only one the models really are running with is a bigger one coming in from the Atlantic toward Zoo.

So.. will one of the local ones fire up first?

Orca, I'm trying to pay you back for giving me the link to the flying tankers last year when we were fighting that 650,000 acre fire over here. That was you wasn't it? lol
Quoting IMA:
725. TampaSpin Yeeehaaaww! Yep, don't see me offerin' to swap my husband, do ya? Actually, that's only 'cause I'm smart. See, if I'm lucky enough to get rid of 'em, I don't want another in exchange ;)

I have a ? about anticyclones, I really do. I'm just not sure I'm alert enough to ask phrase it right. What determines the duration of anticyclonic flow? What can potentially disrupt it?


CATCHER...LOL
745. Orcasystems

Well, at least we know what the CLP5's gonna do with THAT one :P
Quoting TampaSpin:
718. presslord 11:35 PM EDT on September 18, 2008
Tampa....she's going to Houston with SJ....


Press just keep in mind. They claim everything is bigger in Texas....ROFLAMO


Thank you...that is the first time I've laughed in days...i appreciate the humor!!! Thank you!!!
meridional gradient of atmospheric mass between the subtropics and extratropics may have increased over time, and consequently the increased zonal flow may have contributed to the relative paucity of continental anticyclone days in recent years. The zonality/meridionality of the flow and the extent of the circumpolar vortex over the region both appear to be related to the observed frequency shift. Furthermore, variability in the 500 hPa flow appears to be linked to the surface weather variability that was previously observed. These results are important in identifying the degree of scale interaction between upper-level, hemispheric-scale flow and local- to regional-scale surface weather patterns. © 1998 Royal Meteorological Society
Quoting flaboyinga:
Orca, I'm trying to pay you back for giving me the link to the flying tankers last year when we were fighting that 650,000 acre fire over here. That was you wasn't it? lol


Yes, but what a price your paying.. you made BFoxx fall.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Hmm now where did I put that Vicks Vapor rub?
Ahh right next to my Halo Polish :)

OK, back to the weather... which is going to be first. There are a bunch of minor startups in th BOC and Carib, but the only one the models really are running with is a bigger one coming in from the Atlantic toward Zoo.

So.. will one of the local ones fire up first?



Are you gonna start trying to sell your halo polish again. It didn't work last night, it probably won't work tonight.LOL
Quoting Beachfoxx:
I think I just injured myself... fell out of chair, arms & legs flying every where! LOL All while watching the weather channel, so that I could be politically correct on WU!

ROFLMAO *bruised, black & blue!


I swear i did not do it.......lol
OUCH!

BTW - the weather in B'ham AL is gorgeous! Feels like fall. *very politically correct comment ; )
Quoting Orcasystems:


Yes, but what a price your paying.. you made BFoxx fall.
BRB SWMBO'ed Bellowed.
Orca..

GFS

Looks like another ridge setup (if it verifies)

(Man, that'd suck to have a cold and rub halo polish on your chest) :|
I feel like I created a monster. I made a joke a few days back about how the waves coming off of Africa looked like a train and now everybody is going Choo Choo. LOL
ya know people do get really compliacent this time of year. I've broke into my hurricane supplies so often this week.. teenage gamer. hey do you have AA batteries.. 80 year old father with paper thin skin needs bandage.. mother ran out of cat treats.. they make fun of me when I put together our hurricane supplies.. but now - no hurricane in FL they think it's all fair game..
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

A Tropical Depression has entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility and was named "NINA".

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1 (0300z 19Sept)
===========================================
At 11:00 AM PhT, Tropical Depression Nina located near 14.3N 134.9E or 1,080 kms east of Virac, Catanduanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots.
Quoting Orcasystems:
BRB SWMBO'ed Bellowed.

Welcome to the world of confusing acronyms.
Where's my decoder ring. LOL
flaboy,

If we didn't laugh we'd all go insane! - Jimmy Buffet
Quoting BajaALemt:
Orca..

GFS

Looks like another ridge setup (if it verifies)

(Man, that'd suck to have a cold and rub halo polish on your chest) :|
Quoting flaboyinga:
I feel like I created a monster. I made a joke a few days back about how the waves coming off of Africa looked like a train and now everybody is going Choo Choo. LOL
Quoting BajaALemt:
Orca..

GFS

Looks like another ridge setup (if it verifies)

(Man, that'd suck to have a cold and rub halo polish on your chest) :|


Umm you had the cough.........
Quoting BajaALemt:
Orca..

GFS

Looks like another ridge setup (if it verifies)

(Man, that'd suck to have a cold and rub halo polish on your chest) :|


LMAO!!!!!!!! I almost fell outa my chair.
You should read the Harry Potter books...

She Who Must Be Obeyed

Quoting flaboyinga:

Welcome to the world of confusing acronyms.
Where's my decoder ring. LOL
:D
Quoting flaboyinga:

Welcome to the world of confusing acronyms.
Where's my decoder ring. LOL


Be Right Back.. She Who Must Be Obeyed, yelled at me
Quoting flaboyinga:
I feel like I created a monster. I made a joke a few days back about how the waves coming off of Africa looked like a train and now everybody is going Choo Choo. LOL
haha i find it very creative!
Check this out.




Link
Jimmy Jimmy
Yesterday"s over my shoulder, and
I can't look back there too long....
There's too much to see waiting in front of me, and I know that I just can't go wrong.
If we couldn't laugh we would all go insane
768. flaboyinga

Ummm, fla? It says...

SEP 13

ROFLMAO!!!!
Quoting Beachfoxx:
You should read the Harry Potter books...

She Who Must Be Obeyed


Does she have an eyeball on her front door?
MoonlightCowboy,
What do you think of 93L?
Quoting flaboyinga:

Does she have an eyeball on her front door?


Nope, but if I am looking at other woman, she seems to have one in the back of her head.. does that count?
Quoting RadarRich:
Jimmy Jimmy
Yesterday"s over my shoulder, and
I can't look back there too long....
There's too much to see waiting in front of me, and I know that I just can't go wrong.
If we couldn't laugh we would all go insane


OK, this is too weird. I was just on a different board (SecondLife Sailing) and somebody quoted out the lyrics to that song there too....

Ban Repellent: Was nice and cool here last night - humid tonight. Expecting some rain I guess.
Quoting BajaALemt:
768. flaboyinga

Ummm, fla? It says...

SEP 13

ROFLMAO!!!!

Every time I pull it up it says 19Sept08. Wassahapn?
lmao!!! (just revisiting the 13th/19th confusion)
Now that would be down right scary!

Quoting flaboyinga:

Does she have an eyeball on her front door?
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Now that would be down right scary!



That's the kind of people Harry hangs about with.
93L Google Earth
WooooWoooo - I feel like I left the land of weather and entered the land of Voodooo!
ROFLMAO
We even have Jimmy singing on other blogs, just as we quote him... Must be magic! Hmmm good old black magic! LOL

Whoops! Careful of me wand there! ha,ha,ha!
Quoting flaboyinga:


That's the kind of people Harry hang about with.
Quoting Orcasystems:
93L

Here we go again. Orca please pull up that link I posted and check the date. I even looked at it with a magnifying glass. It said 19Sept for me.
Quoting flaboyinga:

Here we go again. Orca please pull up that link I posted and check the date. I even looked at it with a magnifying glass. It said 19Sept for me.


Yup 19
Quoting Orcasystems:


Nope, but if I am looking at other woman, she seems to have one in the back of her head.. does that count?


It probably doesn't work when you are behaving yourself.lol
<<
93L is the one from the CMC :)
wow...blog ate my words :))

I said....I was kidding (13th...from earlier...btn having his images say the 13th...*sigh* ..ok, nevermind) LOL
Quoting BajaALemt:
wow...blog ate my words :))

I said....I was kidding (13th...from earlier...btn having his images say the 13th...*sigh* ..ok, nevermind) LOL


You playing deep in a shallow pond :)
That Google model link has Hispanola getting beat up again. There isn't going to be a shovelful of dirt left on the rocks. It's all going to be washed into the sea.
Quoting Orcasystems:


You playing deep in a shallow pond :)


Story of my life. It's like diving off the dock into 3 feet of water and 2 feet of mud.LOL
Blog update


CMC 00Z.. shows the possibility of a major system off the East Coast.

East CONUS, Carols (This one is now called 93L)

Present Satellite picture of BOC/Caribbean

The Next Train.. is this it?
Quoting BajaALemt:
wow...blog ate my words :))

I said....I was kidding (13th...from earlier...btn having his images say the 13th...*sigh* ..ok, nevermind) LOL


You got me big time that time.lol
LOL *grins sheepishly* Sorry
Quoting BajaALemt:
LOL *grins sheepishly* Sorry

No prob.
Toot! Toot!

You know... there is an island, that seem to remain dry and sunny. Just "below" the hurricane zone... Its a tiny little island, not much to do... but it seems to remain hurricane free...

Aruba..........
and then the song goes,

Aruba, Jamaica, ooh I wanna take ya
Bermuda, Bahama, come on pretty mama
Key Largo, Montego, baby why don't we go, Jamaica


Quoting Orcasystems:
Blog update


CMC 00Z.. shows the possibility of a major system off the East Coast.

East CONUS, Carols (This one is now called 93L)

Present Satellite picture of BOC/Caribbean

The Next Train.. is this it?
Quoting flaboyinga:

No prob.

See #790.LOL
LOL
795. Beachfoxx 4:37 AM GMT on September 19, 2008

It is now time for your daily reality check. Choo Choo.
Latest output from NAM model
link Link
Its true... Aruba is out of the Hurricane Belt.
Quoting flaboyinga:
795. Beachfoxx 4:37 AM GMT on September 19, 2008

It is now time for your daily reality check. Choo Choo.


future 98B and new cyclone?
803. 7544
looks like the new model runs for 93l will be going more north for the next run anyone think so ?
IMA,

Agree w/ you... the laughs help ease the hurt we all feel for TX...

Have a good night all...

Peace be with you!

☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮
Quoting IMA:


O.K., I think I will try my anticyclone question tomorrow, if I remember it. lol Somehow I think Tampa's "catcher" comment wasn't about anticyclonic flow ;)

Goodnight, y'all. We all did need the laughs. Just know that I am still thinking of everyone not laughing tonight, y'all are still in my prayers.





Good night Texan. (I thought that was a chainsaw in the bottom right for a second there.)
Good night Fox
flaboy... I think the last direct hit on Aruba was about 135 years ago... The locals swear that they are never hit.
Its a very dry island, only about 15 inches of rain a year.
Quoting flaboyinga:
795. Beachfoxx 4:37 AM GMT on September 19, 2008

It is now time for your daily reality check. Choo Choo.
Interesting read, not sure how true though. Pat, Press, SJ might want to check this out.



Link



From a blog/article:
"I sat in a meeing two years ago where it was stated that in the event of another disaster such as Katrina, the rest areas on the Interstates would be used as road blocks to stop every truck trying to get supplies to the disaster site. Unless the truck driver had a manifest detailing everything on his truck and the group it was going to was recognized by FEMA/VOAD as a legitimate group—the truck would be forced to turn around and go home."
G'night all.

Quoting Beachfoxx:
flaboy... I think the last direct hit on Aruba was about 135 years ago... The locals swear that they are never hit.
Its a very dry island, only about 15 inches of rain a year.

I was responding to the song lyrics.
In 7 days from now Gfs project the storm at 13N 37W south of a building-high pressure to it's north
Has anyone heard any news about missing people from Ike or have they located them? I have not seen the news in days. Did they ever let news crews get into Bolivar peninsula?
812. intunewindchime

They haven't said anything regarding missing, casualties, etc.

They have let the reporters onto Boliver, but from what I have seen they have not been allowed to the west end yet.

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.6 60.0 270./ 5.0
6 13.7 58.7 49./16.6
12 13.9 60.6 277./18.0
18 14.6 61.4 312./10.6
24 15.2 62.8 293./15.1
30 15.6 63.9 289./11.2
36 16.5 64.5 324./10.6
42 17.2 65.0 325./ 8.9
48 18.0 65.6 323./ 9.2
54 18.8 65.9 339./ 8.4
60 19.6 66.7 316./10.6
66 20.2 67.4 312./ 9.3
72 20.7 67.7 328./ 6.0
78 21.3 68.0 334./ 6.1
84 21.7 68.4 315./ 6.0
90 22.2 68.6 334./ 5.2
96 22.6 68.8 339./ 4.4
102 23.0 69.2 313./ 4.9
108 23.3 69.5 314./ 3.9
114 23.6 69.7 327./ 4.0
120 23.9 69.5 26./ 3.4
126 24.4 69.4 15./ 5.0

In the back of my mind this seems like they are trying to cover up something...
I finally get on the blog and everyone is asleep

Intune, I think you have a point? Strange very little news is being given out.
GFDL and HWRF 00Z both develop the Invest 93L and the Eastern Pacific system. Ugh.
Quoting DannDe:
Intune, I think you have a point? Strange very little news is being given out.
trying again...( anyone who can help me just post a "link" I would appreciate it!)
http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080917_mh_crystal_beach_shermans.85a54f5c.html
I just updated my blog if anyone would like to review.......

TampaSpin's Tropical Update Link
Good nite if anyone is still up....lol
Seems both gfdl hwfw have 93l moving NW towards PRico. I believe in trends so most likely I think it will end up unfornately a hispanola storm. Theres your midnight snack.
An interesting read about Ike's lasting effects on the Texas coastline and battles to follow. Link
hmm 00z gfdl on 93L has it going to bermuda while hwrf takes it to the eastern bahamas ugh
Tropical Cyclone Warning #3 (0600z 19SEPT)
======================================
At 15:00 PM JST, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located near 13.8N 133.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west-southwest at 13 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 14.6N 129.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
27 hrs to 93 is a td. just teasing
Good Morning everybody....
morning
93L is an area of disorganised convection with areas of vortices. i believe that the coc could be in any of these vortices which are east of the islands. the strong south westerly shear is not allowing any thunderstorms to organise and that is hindering development. to me the vortex east of barbados looks to be the bigger of them and i would not be surprise if it becomes the dominant area after the shear relaxes
I don't want to jump the gun but 93L looks like it is heading towards Hispaniola and Cuba. If were lucky the models will be wrong and it will end out like Dolly.
Quoting intunewindchime:
I finally get on the blog and everyone is asleep

I just woke up I'll be here for at least another 10 minutes.
Wow the blog is really slow now

I'll post every two minutes
mornin all4.
mornin
I've been lookin at 93L dont look like much but a few models sayin otherwise
Thats wjat they did with dolly though bbl
Good morning...
IMD Bulletin #16 (0300Z 19Sept)
=====================================
At 8:30 IST, The Depression (BOB04-2008) over north Chhattisgarh moved north-northwestward and lays centered over northeast Madhya Pradesh, close to Satna. The system is likely to move further northerly and weaken gradually.

Under its influence, rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places and isolated extremely heavy falls (≥ 25 cm) is likely west Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand during next 48 hours. Rainfall at most places with heavy to very heavy falls at a few places is likely over east Madhya Pradesh during next 24 hours and east Uttar Pradesh during next 48 hours.

Rainfall at many places with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is likely over west Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh during next 48 hours. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely over Bihar and northeast Rajasthan during the same period.

Chief amounts (≥ 7 cm) of past 24 hrs rainfall as recorded at 0830 IST of today, the 19-09-2008

Chhattisgarh: Durg 16, Bailaigarh & Pithora 14 each, Basana 13, Saja and Pendra Rd 12 each Gariabandh, Chhuda, Sankara & Mahasamund 11 each, Arang, Raipur, Masturi & Bangodam 10 each Manna, Dharamjaygarh & Sariapalli 9 each,Bilaspur, Takhatpur, Rajim, Mahendragarh and Marwahi 8 each Abhanpur, Tilda, Simga, Balari, Berla, Gurur, Pandaria,Bamanadhi, Basantpur, Zondra & Bilha 7 each.

Orissa: Patnagarh 7.

Madhya Pradesh: Umaria 15.


---
crazy for the IMD to just release to public the 03:00 AM UTC advisory
mornin Hades, I posted on here last nite that I have 3 Japanese engineers on the project I'm workin on. All 3 are WU watchers now They were surprised to see post on typhoons in their neck of the woods.
morning keith

lol that is cool. There used to be more people on here covering the West Pacific and there are still some people that would comment on the region occasionally.
these 3 guys just evacuated from their first american Hurricane, Gustav, but were no strangers to big storms. they talk to me about weather almost everyday. They were quite pleased to be turned on to WU a couple of months ago.
gotta go build a bridge BBL
844. unf97
Goog morning everyone!
Link

Wind shear looks to be more of a southerly flow.
Shure hope this isnt a bad sign for the BOC!
Folks
I got a very interesting email in regards to FEMA and the prison camps. Please check out (FEMA prison camps) videos on Youtube.com as I don't want to get in trouble for posting all the links. I guess this relates to weather by forcing people out of there home for a weather/natural disaster. I would like to know if they would really do this to there own people (us)...CAUTION the videos will effect you greatly.Sorry for any inconvenience to the possible truth. It kind of scares me to even post this,But the more who know...Knowledge is power.Look at the people in Iowa,Texas.LA..wow,
a href="
Quoting angelas234:
trying again...( anyone who can help me just post a "link" I would appreciate it!)
http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080917_mh_crystal_beach_shermans.85a54f5c.html
" target="_blank">
Quoting angelas234:
trying again...( anyone who can help me just post a "link" I would appreciate it!)
http://www.khou.com/topstories/stories/khou080917_mh_crystal_beach_shermans.85a54f5c.html
Well that didnt work out
Ill try again.
849. JRRP
poor 93L
Link

Here you go!
INVEST 93L Update:

Based on what we currently have... INVEST 93L is trying to get organized... as some of you might have noticed. We have broad area of low pressure around the Windward islands at Mid levels and there appears to be indication of a Low level circulation trying to get its act together to the W of the southern Winward islands.

Shear over the past 9HR have decreased from 20 to 30 knots to 10 to 20 knots... mainly to the N towards the Leeward islands. We should see further decrease of the shear as the ULL to its N/NW moves away or gets washed out.

GDFL and HWRF are unanimously hinting towards a Cat 1 after it enters the southern Bahama regions. Need to point out that even though NAM is not used to forecast T.S system... it was actually quite consistent at developing this system and giving a track that HWRF now has.

CMC seems to have joined GFDL but has a spawn heading W toward the W Carib. Since CMC started hinting towards this development early just like NAM... I won't completely disregard it but still wait for the 12Z so as to see more consistency like before.

NOGAPS has a weeks system and had also being hinting towards a T.D to minimal T.S. over DR.

GFS seems to have a T.D. in line with the GFDL.

For now since we don't have a definite COC models should be jumping all over until this sytem gets better organize in order to see some consensus between them.
852. IKE
93L looks awful.

72 days after today and it's over in the tropical Atlantic.
Good morning...
At the moment, 93L isn't causing much activity here as yet. It could get worse later today, though.

Yesterday was devastating!
Quoting goldmoon:
Interesting read, not sure how true though. Pat, Press, SJ might want to check this out.



Link



From a blog/article:
"I sat in a meeing two years ago where it was stated that in the event of another disaster such as Katrina, the rest areas on the Interstates would be used as road blocks to stop every truck trying to get supplies to the disaster site. Unless the truck driver had a manifest detailing everything on his truck and the group it was going to was recognized by FEMA/VOAD as a legitimate group—the truck would be forced to turn around and go home."


I've been in Emergency Management for almost 20 years, both State and Private industry, I've never heard of the AID MATRIX thing and I've worked mostly in Logistics since 2000.

One of the main reasons that volunteers is now regulated and restricted is because of the spontanious volunteer who arrives with no training but thinks they can do anything and everything they and in the end get someone hurt or worse killed. This happen after Andrew and Camille. Following 9/11 so called volunteers showed up at the scene and wanted to help....they were untrained in SAR and caused more problems than help. Folowing Katrina, they showed up to help one group turned out to be ex-cons from WV who were there for nothing else but to cause trouble...

As for the good old boys getting a truck loaded up with supplies and just going down there and passing them out.....Following An drew there was a push for relief supplies in the New England areas, so the train companies donated two box cars to haul all these so-called supplies to Miami. When the train arrived in it was "full of supplies" ....fur coates, lawn mowers, cooked "spoiled" hams and other foods(the box cars were not refers), old baby clothes, basicly just about everything and anything that was totally useless to the disaster victims. Following 9/11 basicly the same thing happen in New York where two warehouses were filled with useless junk that preople "donated" to help the people of New York.

Today as in the past, the Red Cross is still the primary shelter providers for disaster operations, however there are Gov agencies that oversee the operations and provide assistance to ARC. Under the National Response Plan now the National Response framework that is called ESF-6(Mass Care). Other VOAD's also contribute to the emergency support function.

Now is it a perfect machine...H--l NO, it never will be, but does it work ..YES!.. can it be improved..Yes!!!, anything can be improved, and it has been. countries come to the US just to see how we do things here and take our idea back to there country and mimic it there.
857. KBH
Quoting stormdude77:
At the moment, 93L isn't causing much activity here as yet. It could get worse later today, though.

Yesterday was devastating!

that is true, the only thing 93L has is plenty of rain
Quoting IKE:
93L looks awful.

72 days after today and it's over in the tropical Atlantic.

Hope we dont have to deal with this one.
859. Vero1
This Morning In the Tropics.

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191109
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. NO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS THAT
PROBABLY ARE NOT RELATED TO THIS WAVE AT ALL ARE WITHIN 90 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 10N40W 8N46W 7N50W.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W SOUTH OF
20N MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN
59W AND 62W. AT LEAST ONE STRONG CELL OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ON TOP
OF TRINIDAD NOW. SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND
LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TODAY.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W/73W SOUTH OF 20N
FROM HAITI TO VENEZUELA/COLOMBIA MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
DISSIPATING SHOWERS FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W IN
VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA.

A TROPICAL WAVE JUST HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
IS ALONG 91W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 92W AND 94W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND PARTS OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ...
ALONG 10N/11N BETWEEN AFRICA AT 15W AND 60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEAKENING FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 60W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY PASSES THROUGH 31N75W
TO GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND TO 24N81W IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N81W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WEST OF THE LINE
THROUGH 31N61W 22N75W...IN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...AND IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 76W AND 85W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 21N84W 30N85W. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA KEYS AND WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 28N. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY
FRONT IS ALONG 93W/94W FROM 17N TO 27N. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 90W AND THE TEXAS/MEXICO COASTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW EXISTS ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NICARAGUA CARIBBEAN SEA COAST.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 40W AND 60W INTO
THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF 70W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N68W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
14N66W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. PRECIPITATION NOT RELATED TO THE
62W TROPICAL WAVE ARE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
25N43W AS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THIS CYCLONIC CENTER TO 15N50W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND
60W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 32N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N23W
TOWARD THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

$$
MT

846

Rather irresponsible to post this without an appropriate hat warning, isn't it?

"Tinfoil hats required. Shiny side out of course."
Quoting IKE:
93L looks awful.

72 days after today and it's over in the tropical Atlantic.


Beware the rare December systems, however.

May be over 'officially' but since when did nature play by the rules?
Morning All.

93L now, thought it was looking tropical yesterday. Early model runs have another hit on DR and Haiti. Not going to be much left there after 08
863. JRRP

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191150
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.
Quoting IKE:
93L looks awful.

72 days after today and it's over in the tropical Atlantic.



Ike,
we still have to go through the 72 days lol.
oh man, don't send 93 to haiti/dr those folks have had way more than their share....

2 Outlook – Valid: Sep 23 – 29, 2008
Please note: Confidence estimates are subjective in nature and are not based on an objective scheme. The estimates are given to provide additional information to the user.
Issued: 9/15
1. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis for the eastern Pacific, western Gulf Of Mexico and western Caribbean. The favorable
phase of the MJO increases the threat for tropical development during the period. Confidence: Moderate
2. An increased chance for above-average rainfall for the eastern Pacific, southern Mexico and parts of Central America. The enhanced
phase of the MJO is expected to result in wet conditions during the period. Confidence: Moderate
3. An increased chance for below-average rainfall for the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Indonesia. The suppressed phase of the MJO is
expected to result in dry conditions during the period. Confidence: Moderate
4. An increased chance for above-average rainfall stretching from Southeast Asia into the western Pacific. The enhanced phase of the MJO is
expected to result in wet conditions during the period. Confidence: Moderate
5. An increased chance for tropical cyclogenesis for the South China Sea and the far western Pacific. The favorable phase of the MJO increases
the threat for tropical development during the period. Confidence: Moderate
SEE TEXT NOTATION: Conditions are expected to begin to become more favorable for tropical cyclogenesis across the deep tropical Atlantic Ocean late
during the period but development is more likely during week 3.


jo
Great. I am supposed to be in Puerto Rico this Tues-Thursday for business. Meetings were originally scheduled in Miami but Tropical Storm Fay but them on the back burner. Hopefully 93 stays away long enough to get them in and give me some decent weather down there.
Quoting CaptnDan142:
846

Rather irresponsible to post this without an appropriate hat warning, isn't it?

"Tinfoil hats required. Shiny side out of course."


I don't think even the "tinfoil hats" would even help these people.....

What is really stupid is some of the videos show old closed military base housing facilities supposely as newly build "concretration camps" and the video showing the large parking lot that area I'm sure was looked at for use as a staging areas for disaster supplies or a responders base camp....These people need more drugs....
868. TX2FL
Quoting SOUTHFL43YRS:

Hope we dont have to deal with this one.


My thoughts exactly..especially after that "cat 1 after the southern bahamas" blurb..
Quoting Bones429:


I've been in Emergency Management for almost 20 years, both State and Private industry, I've never heard of the AID MATRIX thing and I've worked mostly in Logistics since 2000.

One of the main reasons that volunteers is now regulated and restricted is because of the spontanious volunteer who arrives with no training but thinks they can do anything and everything they and in the end get someone hurt or worse killed. This happen after Andrew and Camille. Following 9/11 so called volunteers showed up at the scene and wanted to help....they were untrained in SAR and caused more problems than help. Folowing Katrina, they showed up to help one group turned out to be ex-cons from WV who were there for nothing else but to cause trouble...

As for the good old boys getting a truck loaded up with supplies and just going down there and passing them out.....Following An drew there was a push for relief supplies in the New England areas, so the train companies donated two box cars to haul all these so-called supplies to Miami. When the train arrived in it was "full of supplies" ....fur coates, lawn mowers, cooked "spoiled" hams and other foods(the box cars were not refers), old baby clothes, basicly just about everything and anything that was totally useless to the disaster victims. Following 9/11 basicly the same thing happen in New York where two warehouses were filled with useless junk that preople "donated" to help the people of New York.

Today as in the past, the Red Cross is still the primary shelter providers for disaster operations, however there are Gov agencies that oversee the operations and provide assistance to ARC. Under the National Response Plan now the National Response framework that is called ESF-6(Mass Care). Other VOAD's also contribute to the emergency support function.

Now is it a perfect machine...H--l NO, it never will be, but does it work ..YES!.. can it be improved..Yes!!!, anything can be improved, and it has been. countries come to the US just to see how we do things here and take our idea back to there country and mimic it there.
Interesting information - thanks for enlightening us. Amazing stories.
Quoting Cotillion:


Beware the rare December systems, however.

May be over 'officially' but since when did nature play by the rules?


Um, in 2005. Oh wait - Zeta broke the rules on Dec 30th. Um, 1954 maybe? ;-)

Seriously tho - I would love to think that as some have stated, the season is over. Realistically, I know better.

But it should come as no surprise that some have declared the season to be at an end. It just goes that way around here. Has there been a landfalling system yet that was not at one time or another declared RIP by one or more people here?

Oh well, it seems the choo-choo has started up again - lets just hope for a few fish storms out of it.
Quoting WXfreq:
Folks
I got a very interesting email in regards to FEMA and the prison camps. Please check out (FEMA prison camps) videos on Youtube.com as I don't want to get in trouble for posting all the links. I guess this relates to weather by forcing people out of there home for a weather/natural disaster. I would like to know if they would really do this to there own people (us)...CAUTION the videos will effect you greatly.Sorry for any inconvenience to the possible truth. It kind of scares me to even post this,But the more who know...Knowledge is power.Look at the people in Iowa,Texas.LA..wow,

Ummmmm.... Apparently the medication has worn off.
Morning all!
Quoting Bones429:


I don't think even the "tinfoil hats" would even help these people.....


I just kept asking myself... If this is a "Top Secret" facility/project how is it that these jokers are standing in the middle of it and filming it? And posting it publicly?

I was looking for some info on the Galveston situation and stumbled onto a website that had a few theories about the massive cover-up and secret ops going on there. Then I watched a press conference with one of the alleged participants - Mayor Thomas. Umm... ROTFLMAO.

On that note, since my searches are not going well (obviously) and the Houston TV stations aren't really carrying much any more - anybody got a one-stop-shop to get the latest on what's going on over there in Galveston? (Storm recovery stuff please - black helicopters optional) ;-)
Quoting FLDART1:

Ummmmm.... Apparently the medication has worn off.


Uh huh. He was right - "the videos will effect you greatly"

First I was amazed that these people were serious. Then laughter set in. I startled the dog, she barked, which woke the birds who squawked, that woke SWMBO..... Yup. I was affected.
ike hurt and the pain continues. IT'S FRIDAY, GO TO THE SITES and DONATE NOW IF YOU CAN. Also, when the wu wonder trucks get to tex they will obain a shipping address for us to send "stuff".

forget one dinner, forego one night at the movies, or the trip to wally-world and help - there are valid groups that all of us can help with any bit we can give - i am not saying any of us have anything spare right now but we all have more than those folks do.

please reach down post a note in your lunch room reprint these pix and share with your neighbors and co-workers - have a bake sale - have a garage sale - get involved and never forget we may need it next.

jo
876. Vero1
Quoting CaptnDan142:


>On that note, since my searches are not going well (obviously) and the Houston TV stations aren't really carrying much any more - anybody got a one-stop-shop to get the latest on what's going on over there in Galveston? (Storm recovery stuff please - black helicopters optional) ;-)


http://projectdisaster.com/ike.htm
Good morning everyone.

On the topic of no news of casualty figures, there is a saying: Don't attribute to conspiracy that which is merely due to incompetence.

Not sure if that fits this situation but I do know it takes time (and a person willing to responsible for delivering bad news) for authorities to tell the public who is actually dead or missing. You can bet those morgue refrigerator trucks have some residents by now.
re: anybody got a one-stop-shop to get the latest on what's going on over there in Galveston?

http://abclocal.go.com/ktrk/index great site

jo
RIP 93l and gustav wikll not be retired
880. DVG
Quoting FLDART1:

Ummmmm.... Apparently the medication has worn off.


Just another person helping the KOS
877. TropicTraveler

Good point(s).

Maybe this even explains something - people are wondering why the part-time unpaid (read that: scapegoat) mayor is still "in charge" instead of the person who normally actually runs the city.

My guess is, when it comes time to make the announcement it will be the mayor who is at the podium.
Quoting CaptnDan142:br / - anybody got a one-stop-shop to get the latest on what's going on over there in Galveston? (Storm recovery stuff please - black helicopters optional) ;-)


Captn: Try these two links
One is a link to Texas Emergency Management look for SITREPS or IAP's

Link

The other is a link to several News Channels

Link
883. Vero1
Quoting CaptnDan142:
877. TropicTraveler

Good point(s).

Maybe this even explains something - people are wondering why the part-time unpaid (read that: scapegoat) mayor is still "in charge" instead of the person who normally actually runs the city.

My guess is, when it comes time to make the announcement it will be the mayor who is at the podium.


The Mayor and City Manager said the total for The City of Galvestion not Galveston County! No one is asking the Galveston County Officials about their Death Toll.
KHOU in Houston on the 7AM Weather said there was no activity. If it wasn't for this site I wouldn't now be watching for reports and notifying my Subdivision to prepare. We can now take this time to restock before everyone becomes aware and the supplies become more limited. As I am writing this, at 746AM KHOU mentioned a little spot that they will keep their eye on. Thank you
This is what the dates for the Hurricane Season should "actually" read:

Texas/Lousiana/Mississippi: August 1st - Oct 10th
Alabama/Florida Panhandle: August 1st - Oct 15th
Florida Penisula: August 1st - October 20th
South Florida: August 1st - November 1st

Tropical Storm Season:

All regions: May 15th - November 30th
Quoting cmackla:
This is what the dates for the Hurricane Season should "actually" read:

Texas/Lousiana/Mississippi: August 1st - Oct 10th
Alabama/Florida Panhandle: August 1st - Oct 15th
Florida Penisula: August 1st - October 20th
South Florida: August 1st - November 1st

Tropical Storm Season:

All regions: May 15th - November 30th


Of course with the exception of the 2005 Hurricane Season where we had a category four and a category five hurricane in July, Dennis and Emily.
Want to donate to the relief effort of Hurricane IKE and don’t know how? Visit www.stormjunkie.com and click on the donate tab at the top of the page.

United We Stand.
Hades - Morning - just spoke with my surf buddy in the Phillipines last night -- while Tkeith is mentioning your important work and observations... I too would like to say thanks. My surfbuddy credits your information in helping him get people to his wedding safety the day Feng hit PI. When ever you post stuff regarding his neck of the woods I alert him :)
Good morning all...
Blog update

Caribbean System... 93L

Present Satellite picture of BOC/Caribbean

The Next Train.. is this it?

CMC 00Z..
"The last house standing"

Good morning all!

The vorticity or "spin" that 93L developed overnight is due to a low/mid-level jet that is now rocketing through the northern Lesser Antilles.

The increase of wind speed from south to north over the islands causes a tendency for cyclonic turning - postive vorticity.

Also associated with this jet is extremely dry mid level air...and in my estimation will make it QUITE difficult for 93L to organize over the next 24-48 hours!

The mosquitoes are so bad that the military is supposed to be using 13 planes to spray from the air. The swamp/marshes are infested with those buggers. Everybody has a pile of rubble/"s" pile and debris removal can't come soon enough. The smell is terrible!! These planes are supposed to cover 80,000 acres and we haven't seen the 1st plane yet........promises, promises!! How many people were swept away by Ike's surge......we may never know.......they'll cover it up for sure.
I can't get to Texas physically to help IKE victims,.....but it's good to know - that donating to www.portlight.com "CHA-CHING" will direct deliver aid and supplies to those who are in need.

watching these guys come up with the idea, tap, tap, tap on the key board, brainstorm a solution and then create a working plan that expedites aid & supplies RAPIDO --with trucks already on the road -- an affirming example of how motivated people, Can Make A Difference!!!!
Good Morning...Nice, cool, "crispy" weather this am in North Florida.....Let's hope it stays that way going into Fall on Monday...
The track on a potential 93L looks all too familiar!! Africa development??
891. mattrix 1:01 PM GMT on September 19, 2008
"The last house standing"



That house is probably on of the most viewed houses in the USA by now.
<
897. flaboyinga

You are probably right! Has it been said yet or does anyone know the name of the builder?
Good morning everyone!
Just wanted to send out this link someone sent me. Amazing pictures. I am really in AWE! Link
Have a good day, I'll be lurking, we are really busy!!
901. KBH
Quoting Gumbogator:
The track on a potential 93L looks all too familiar!! Africa development??

if my memory serves me correctly the most recent system to have that path was Gustav....
Some great links - thanks to all who posted!

893... RE: Cover-up... Um, motivation?

(tinfoil hat alert)
Gumbo,
I just read about the planes spraying over us. Hope it comes soon!
Quoting 69Viking:
897. flaboyinga

You are probably right! Has it been said yet or does anyone know the name of the builder?


There were several links with an interview of the owner's daughter. She stated that it took two contractors plus her parents to get it built. I think it's on youtube if you do a search.
Also, as to Ike survivors, continued prayers and financial support...However, I heard an interesting news clip yesterday on Public Radio where one of first responders, who did not go on record with his name, complained that those who stayed back in coastal areas/barrier islands, instead of evacuating, are causing a massive use of manpower/reasources, which could be used elesewhere, by having to have ongoing helicopter delivery of food and supplies...While he understood the issue of folks not wanting to leave their properties behind (fear of looting, etc,), he was pretty upset that he is putting his folks and helicopter crews at risk to continue to supply those who ignored evacuation requests.....
Good morning everyone

93L is slowly putting together some deep convection. Lower lever convergence is still missing though and IF this does develop into a tropical cyclone it would appear unlikely to do so before reaching near 70 to 75W.

It is now at 63W which means it is entering an area of the Caribbean that is typically hostile for early stage systems ( the so called " dead zone " ).

I expect that it will continue on a generally W track into the Central Caribbean and already the models have come far W with the recent set of runs. Last night I posted that we were probably looking at 24 to 48 hrs before it would indicate whether or not it was likely to become a real threat and I still believe that to be the case.

The danger with 93L is that the Caribbean is still hot enough to support a major hurricane and with a positive phase of the MJO only a couple of days around the corner 93L should not be taken lightly.

Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Also, as to Ike survivors, continued prayers and financial support...However, I heard an interesting news clip yesterday on Public Radio where one of first responders, who did not go on record with his name, complained that those who stayed back in coastal areas/barrier islands, instead of evacuating, are causing a massive use of manpower/reasources, which could be used elesewhere, by having to have ongoing helicopter delivery of food and supplies...While he understood the issue of folks not wanting to leave their properties behind (fear of looting, etc,), he was pretty upset that he is putting his folks and helicopter crews at risk to continue to supply those who ignored evacuation requests.....
...A good reminder that most descisions people make in some way affects others. These particular descisions could have Life or Death impacts on others...
Shear has been falling over the Caribbean as a whole as forecasted. This will provide support for 93L while trekking through the Eastern Caribbean

Atlantic Basin SST's (Animation)

You can really see where Ike cooled things in the western GOM.
Back later
911. IKE
Quoting JRRP:

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191150
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE
ADJACENT CARIBBEAN AND ATLANTIC WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.


Great news...die 93L.
Thanks Kman -- nice review of 93L -- and no I'm am NOT looking at this seedling to grow -- after Ike -- as much as I love waves -- I just don't want them like this -- Ike was just nasty and ugly-- from the horrible damage he inflicted on the land, humanity and creatures -- to his waves which were so loaded w/stinging jellies and sea nettles - that any pleasure was quickly stung --
913. JRRP
i think that 93L will pass more south
gimme shear and shut-off the MJO --somebody needs to put a chain on that Monkey!!

Maybe if we ALL think death to 93L we make an "intention connection" and snuff the sucker out
YIKES, hawk in the yard -- chickens are screaming bbl
Greetings Everyone..
First time post, live in South Fla..been watching this blog for sometime and find your thoughts and energy regarding this year's storm season interesting..I do alot of my monitoring on Google Earth and this blog.. I am a former flight engineer on a blackhawk helo, AF reserve, PAFB Fl..Our primary mission is Combat Rescue...today the unit is in Tex helping with the efforts there..as they did with Katrina in the past season and worked many other humanitarin missons too..Its amazing what mom nature can do and the destruction that comes about..its also great to see mankind come together (even with all the flaws we have) and help each other.. Stay well....
Steve
You have to love it when everyone is on the same page :)


"The city of Galveston is not in ruins," Mayor Lyda Ann Thomas said Thursday, striking a defiant tone.

Then she ceded the podium to city manager Steve LeBlanc, who said Galveston basically is on life support.

There's some power to the only hospital, but not enough. Cell phone service is improving, which helps repair crews coordinate, but coverage is still spotty. More water is flowing out of the city's pipes than is flowing in.
Good morning all! Been away for a couple of days. My prayers and thoughts are still with all of you who were so badly affected by Ike.
I've got our Youth Group at church holding a bake sale to help raise funds and I've been sharing Press & Pat's fund info with everyone. Godspeed to all of you helping people out. My brother (who lives in Pinehurst - north of Houston) is still w/o power and very little water, says people are pulling together to help each other out. It is so good to see.

Now, on a weather note....does 93L really have a chance to develop?
Among those accepting a hand was Cheryl Harwell, who holed up in an empty hotel as Ike devastated the Bolivar Peninsula community of Crystal Beach. She ignored a mandatory evacuation order six days ago, and suggested she wouldn't be leaving anytime soon.

"I got everything I need here," said Harwell, 50, as she sat on the hotel's second-floor balcony with her husband and a friend.

Destruction surrounded them, but their second-floor abode was dry and tidy, complete with clean linen, bottled water and beer.

"We're happy here," said Harwell's husband, Armando Briones. "We've got plenty of cigarettes and plenty of food."

If they need something, they simply flag down the National Guard, which has been making daily checks.
Gm,all,a little surprised to see 93L,really wasn't expecting anything for a few days,but that said,not very impressed with it,and the environment the next few days,doesn't look great.
was wonderin where ya been Hanna... I've enjoyed the lull in the tropics but as (blogger) Ike reminds us season aint over til it's over...
though this is not really weather related I think it sound kinda familar......

OBAMA SAYS WILL HOLD BACK FROM PRESENTING HIS DETAILED RECOVERY PLAN...

This sounds like Mayor Nagan's infamous 1st evacuation plan he kept talking about before he was re-elected. He had hired a company that brought in Canadians to write a Hurricane Evacuation Plan (now how many hurricane has Canada had????)....after reviewing this plan we called it the "Van-Nagan express" maining because these "So-called evacuation planners" wanted to use box cars to evacuate New Orleans in the event of another hurricane threat. Needless to say the plan was denied by FEMA.
Quoting tkeith:
was wonderin where ya been Hanna... I've enjoyed the lull in the tropics but as (blogger) Ike reminds us season aint over til it's over...

Hey tkeith! Been so busy at work. The lull is nice - I think this is the first weekend we won't be cleaning up after a storm! I'm afraid it isn't over....but one can hope!
New Blog
Power still out on the NW side of Houston in many neighborhoods.
Isaac's Storm by Erik Larson is a great book about the hurricane of 1900 that destroyed Galveston. It is part: history of man's understanding of what we call weather, part biography of Isaac Monroe Cline, observer for the US Weather Bureau in Galveston, and part history of the people and development of the Houston/Galveston, Texas area. I received a copy of this book (paperback) as a gift [it may be out of print - copyright 1999] in late August & I have found it compelling reading in the wake of hurricane Ike.
Quoting Bones429:


I've been in Emergency Management for almost 20 years, both State and Private industry, I've never heard of the AID MATRIX thing and I've worked mostly in Logistics since 2000.

One of the main reasons that volunteers is now regulated and restricted is because of the spontanious volunteer who arrives with no training but thinks they can do anything and everything they and in the end get someone hurt or worse killed. This happen after Andrew and Camille. Following 9/11 so called volunteers showed up at the scene and wanted to help....they were untrained in SAR and caused more problems than help. Folowing Katrina, they showed up to help one group turned out to be ex-cons from WV who were there for nothing else but to cause trouble...

As for the good old boys getting a truck loaded up with supplies and just going down there and passing them out.....Following An drew there was a push for relief supplies in the New England areas, so the train companies donated two box cars to haul all these so-called supplies to Miami. When the train arrived in it was "full of supplies" ....fur coates, lawn mowers, cooked "spoiled" hams and other foods(the box cars were not refers), old baby clothes, basicly just about everything and anything that was totally useless to the disaster victims. Following 9/11 basicly the same thing happen in New York where two warehouses were filled with useless junk that preople "donated" to help the people of New York.

Today as in the past, the Red Cross is still the primary shelter providers for disaster operations, however there are Gov agencies that oversee the operations and provide assistance to ARC. Under the National Response Plan now the National Response framework that is called ESF-6(Mass Care). Other VOAD's also contribute to the emergency support function.

Now is it a perfect machine...H--l NO, it never will be, but does it work ..YES!.. can it be improved..Yes!!!, anything can be improved, and it has been. countries come to the US just to see how we do things here and take our idea back to there country and mimic it there.


Thanks for the explanation, makes sense. So basically anyone wishing to help needs to only call ahead and give credintials and get clearance. I can understand that.


When we went to help my parents recover what they could after Katrina it was really frustrating to try to navigate the site-seers with a 40 foot trailer hooked to a dually. (We brought a tractor to try to push some of the muck around to search it.) This was the day after the National Guard stopped checking proof of residence.


It seems like the more the gov tries to help the more trouble they are accused of. :)
Quoting system345:
RIP 93l and gustav wikll not be retired


I believe that Gustav caused such a lengthy swath of devastation, from the Caribbean, to Louisiana, all the way through the midwest U.S., and even into Canada, that there will be choice to retire it.
Quoting CaptnDan142:
846

Rather irresponsible to post this without an appropriate hat warning, isn't it?

"Tinfoil hats required. Shiny side out of course."


LOL I'm ashamed to say I watched a couple of those videos and was stunned these people reporting on it were still alive. Maybe we'll see on the news that they commited suicide by shooting themselves in the head three times...


My first thought was that if all of us were detained, who would run the gaslines, electricity, furnaces and hand out ice!



I wonder why the gov doesn't use these places for something. Might be a good place to store supplies for disasters. I hate to see places like that go to wasted.


Can someone tell me what kind of system that is out there around 45-25? Could that make it to the US on its current path? Thanks
Quoting CaptnDan142:


I just kept asking myself... If this is a "Top Secret" facility/project how is it that these jokers are standing in the middle of it and filming it? And posting it publicly?

I was looking for some info on the Galveston situation and stumbled onto a website that had a few theories about the massive cover-up and secret ops going on there. Then I watched a press conference with one of the alleged participants - Mayor Thomas. Umm... ROTFLMAO.

On that note, since my searches are not going well (obviously) and the Houston TV stations aren't really carrying much any more - anybody got a one-stop-shop to get the latest on what's going on over there in Galveston? (Storm recovery stuff please - black helicopters optional) ;-)

LOL I have found that you get more information from the comments on the news stories than the news stories themselves. People in those areas that are getting access to computers are posting responses. Just do a search for Ike survivors or something to that nature.


****Rumble in the ACLU jungle.****
No, they won't be looking at the plywood or gas price gougers or executives responsible for the finacial collapse of hardworking people's retirement plans, or running disreputable contractors out of town.

They'll be looking for these concentration camps, body count cover ups, unconstitutional evictions, and local official incompetance,that have been posted here and elsewhere.
Correct me if I'm wrong,don't the locals elect their officials? The ballot box decides competence.

Why on God's green earth would you hide a body count that would vindicate a mandatory evacuation order and place more weight on the warnings on forecasters?

Why would you endanger public safety with no reguard to electrocution, desease, injury, crime and such? Emergency response crews and releif efforts have their hands full.

If an abandoned Army barracks is all you have, then it is what it is.

And if you're planning a memorial, make sure it doesn't reference your God. That's one of their favorites.

I visit this blog as and interdisiplinary study in forecasting, emergency response, eco system damage and the many disiplines that affect recovery and rebuilding.

The sky is not falling. A lot of people are in pain and there are more witches swimming in the water.

Please be informed that every VOAD group gets supplies from the state warehouse set up for their state. The VOAD state warehouse gets more and more of their supplies through the AIDMATRIX network which is a way to computerize the whole giving and receiving of donated goods and money.

Also be advised that spontaneous volunteers in most states must first be screened, including a background check. The days of a group just calling to say they are coming have ended.

In most disasters, a VOAD group is assigned to be "lead" group and they are entrusted with screening all spontaneous volunteers and unsolicited donations.

All aspects of sending needed supplies to devastated areas come AFTER the first responders have secured the area. No volunteers can be allowed into a disaster area until Search and Rescue crews do their jobs along with the National Guard and various agencies assigned to secure the area.
Volunteer groups and charities fill the void after the initial time frame.

The Red Cross is strapped for funds, the Salvation Army is strapped for funds. Most smaller charities are strapped for funds. Regardless of who your favorite disaster relief/recover charity is, they are in desperate need of monetary donations. Thank you.
933. AEAWx
Dear Shepherd: this site is for the discussion of weather. Please show some respect for the rules of Dr. Jeff Master Baiting other users is not allowed. Thanks