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Which Hurricane Forecast Model Should You Trust?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:05 PM GMT on August 07, 2013

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) set a new record in 2012 for accuracy of their 1, 2, 3, and 4-day Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts, but had almost no skill making intensity forecasts, according to the 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in March 2013. The new records for track accuracy were set despite the fact that the season’s storms were harder than average to forecast. The average error in a 1-day forecast was 46 miles, and was 79 miles for 2 days, 116 miles for 3 days, 164 miles for 4 days, and 224 miles for 5 days. The official track forecast had a westward bias of 10 - 17 miles for 1 - 3 day forecasts (i.e., the official forecast tended to fall to the west of the verifying position), and was 38 and 75 miles too far to the northeast for the 4- and 5-day forecasts, respectively.


Figure 1. Verification of official NHC hurricane track forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2012. Over the past 15 - 20 years, 1 - 3 day track forecast errors have been reduced by about 60%. Track forecast error reductions of about 50% have occurred over the past ten years for 4- and 5-day forecasts. Image credit: 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

NHC Intensity Forecasts: Little Improvement Since 1990
Official NHC intensity forecasts did better than usual in 2012, and had errors lower than the 5-year average error for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. However, 2012's storms were easier to predict than usual, due to due to a lack of rapidly intensifying hurricanes. These rapid intensifiers are typically the source of the largest forecast errors. The skill of official NHC 24-hour intensity forecasts made in 2012 for the Atlantic basin were only about 15% better than a "no-skill" forecast; 2, 3, 4, and 5-day intensity forecasts had no skill.


Figure 2. Verification of official NHC hurricane intensity forecasts for the Atlantic, 1990 - 2012. Intensity forecasts have shown little to no improvement since 1990. Image credit: 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report.

Which Track Model Should You Trust?
As usual, in 2012 the official NHC forecast for Atlantic storms was almost as good as or better than any individual computer models--though NOAA's GFS model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast at 12, 24, and 48-hour periods, and the European model forecast was slightly better at 12-hour forecasts. Despite all the attention given to how the European Center (ECMWF) model outperformed the GFS model for Hurricane Sandy's track at long ranges, the GFS model actually outperformed the European model in 2012 when summing up all track forecasts made for all Atlantic named storms. This occurred, in part, because the European model made a few disastrously bad forecasts for Tropical Storm Debby when it was in the Gulf of Mexico and steering currents were weak. For several runs, the model predicted a Texas landfall, but Debby ended up moving east-northeast to make a Northwest Florida landfall, like the GFS model had predicted. However, the best-performing model averaged over the past three years has been the European Center model, with the GFS model a close second. Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing track models used to predict hurricane tracks. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on this page. Here are some of the better models NHC regularly looks at:

ECMWF: The European Center's global forecast model
GFS: NOAA's global forecast model
NOGAPS: The Navy's global forecast model (now defunct, replaced by the NAVGEM model in 2013)
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office's global forecast model
GFDL: The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's hurricane model, initialized using GFS data
HWRF: The intended successor for the the GFDL hurricane model, also initialized using GFS data
CMC: The Canadian GEM model
BAMM: The very old Beta and Advection Model (Medium layer), which is still useful at longer ranges

If one averages together the track forecasts from the first six of these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it. As seen in Figure 3, the HWRF and UKMET were well behind the ECMWF and GFS in forecast accuracy in 2012, but were still respectable. The simple BAMM model did well at 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. The GFDL and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and HWRF. The Navy's NOGAPS model also did poorly in 2012, and has been retired. Its replacement for 2013 is called the NAVGEM model.


Figure 3. Skill of computer model forecasts of Atlantic named storms in 2012, compared to a "no skill" model called "CLIPER5" that uses just climatology and persistence to make a hurricane track forecast (persistence means that a storm will tend to keep going in the direction it's current going.) OFCL=Official NHC forecast; GFS=Global Forecast System model; GFDL=Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory model; HWRF=Hurricane Weather Research Forecasting model; UKMET=United Kingdom Met Office model; ECMWF=European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting model; TVCA=one of the consensus models that lends together several of the above models; CMC=Canadian Meteorological Center (GEM) model; BAMM=Beta Advection Model (Medium depth.) Image credit: National Hurricane Center 2012 verification report.

Which Intensity Model Should You Trust?
Don't trust any of them. NHC has two main statistical intensity models, LGEM and DSHP (the SHIPS model with inland decay of a storm factored in.) In addition, four dynamical models that are also use to track hurricanes--the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and GFDL models--all offer intensity forecasts. With the exception of the GFS model, which had a skill just 5% better than a "no-skill" intensity forecast for predictions going out 36 hours, all of these models had no skill in their intensity forecasts during 2012. The ECMWF and HWRF models were the worst models for intensity forecasts of 3, 4, and 5 days, with a skill of 20% - 60% lower than a "no-skill" forecast. The LGEM model, which was a decent intensity model in 2011, tanked badly in 2012 and had near-zero skill. The only model that was any good in 2012 was the IVCN "consensus" model, which averages together the intensity forecasts of two or more of the intensity models such as LGEM, GFDL, HWRF, and DSHP.

Some Promising Models From the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
Last year was the fourth year of a ten-year project, called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), aimed at reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 50%. The new experimental models from HFIP generally performed poorly in 2012. However, the new FIM9 15-km global model was competitive with the ECMWF and GFS models for track, and the new CIRA Statistical Intensity Consensus (SPC3) model for intensity performed better than many of the traditional intensity models.

For those interested in learning more about the hurricane forecast models, NOAA has a 1-hour training video (updated for 2011.) Additional information about the guidance models used at the NHC can be found at NHC and the NOAA/HRD Hurricane FAQ.

Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days. I plan on having a detailed update on Friday to discuss the latest long-range forecasts for the coming peak part of hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1450. Felix2007:


I don't really lurk or post around here except during hurricane season, lol. I mean I use the site and all, just not really the blogs. You know I'll be around plenty during the next few months as the tropics heat up!


Nice! See ya back in tropics talk when we start heating up?
1502. Patrap
One thing is for sure the GFS has been consistant now for several runs in showing a system developing in the Gulf.
Impressive...

Thanks to a fellow blogger she gave me the idea to add a graphic of Precip totals forecast 84hours out to my website...HAVE FUN!
Quoting 1477. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I've been diagnosed with Tropical Depression.
A good ztorm to track will rid you of that, no?
Quoting 1504. Civicane49:
Impressive...

Impressive for the fishes too.
Quoting 1504. Civicane49:
Impressive...


"Most impressive"
1509. nigel20
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I've been diagnosed with Tropical Depression.

That's pretty funny, Caleb...good one.
seriously, this years starting to be annoying. All the activity's been in the E Pac, and the E Pac storms are always very boring. They never really do anything cool. The Atlantic really needs to step up quickly or this may be one of those crappy inactive years with less than 14 storms that are weak and have no impact
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
I've been diagnosed with Tropical Depression.


Honestly, I am too, I have a headache just sitting around having to do obligatory things in my life like getting ready for college, going to doctor appointments, and life going on as usual. I want a Cat 4 so I can have a break.

Sarcasm Flag: On (for the most part) (:
Quoting 1510. PortoJuan:
seriously, this years starting to be annoying. All the activity's been in the E Pac, and the E Pac storms are always very boring. They never really do anything cool. The Atlantic really needs to step up quickly or this may be one of those crappy inactive years with less than 14 storms that are weak and have no impact



1) Go on wikipedia.
2) search up "2010 Atlantic hurricane season."
3) look at the date Hurricane Danielle formed.
4) look at the latest GFS run
5) enjoy
Aug.11, 1994
Quoting 1506. unknowncomic:
A good ztorm to track will rid you of that, no?
A storm name Xanax may help you.Wait until the X storm.
1515. nash36
Quoting 1510. PortoJuan:
seriously, this years starting to be annoying. All the activity's been in the E Pac, and the E Pac storms are always very boring. They never really do anything cool. The Atlantic really needs to step up quickly or this may be one of those crappy inactive years with less than 14 storms that are weak and have no impact


What "impact" are you wanting here?? A landfalling major hurricane that destroys lives, property, etc...????

Judging by your narrative, I believe that is what you want.
Quoting 1512. CybrTeddy:



1) Go on wikipedia.
2) search up "2010 Atlantic hurricane season."
3) look at the date Hurricane Danielle formed.
4) enjoy

Hey Cybr Teddy, did you catch my reply to your comment on the last page?
1517. nigel20
Kingston Jamaica weather station
( updated Thu, 08 Aug 2013 12:00 pm EST )

32°C
High: 32°C | Low: 26°C
Partly Cloudy

Sunrise: 5:46 am
Sunset: 6:36 pm
Visibility: 9.99 km
Feels like: 32°C
Humidity: 62%
Wind: 32.19 km/h
Quoting 1513. Sfloridacat5:
Aug.11, 1994

Fun
1519. ncstorm
96 hours on the 12z Euro..always dissipates the low..lets see if this run is different.

Well now we just hit the other extreme^^^^
96W in the WPAC



Organising quite quickly! OSCAT got a pass of it earlier



CMC and GFS both bring it up to Typhoon status.




Quoting 1490. opal92nwf:

Ahh, so you moved to Florida at almost the height of the real estate/economic bubble? Shortly after moving to Illinois in 2004, the realtor called and said he could sell our house (that we were renting at the time) for like double or more than the amount we got it for in 2000. I also remember visiting South Florida a lot around 2004, and yes, that was a booming time for Florida.

I always welcome rain at my house, I love it! Now I know that P'cola has had some flooding problems, but over here in the Fort Walton area, it can rain all it wants on this sandy soil and it will never pool anywhere, unless it's an urban area with poor drainage.


I've had water pooled in my front yard for over a month. Even those of us in Fort Walton Beach will be in trouble if we get rains from a Tropical System. The aquifer is full so water doesn't have anywhere to drain to.
1523. Gearsts
Quoting 1512. CybrTeddy:



1) Go on wikipedia.
2) search up "2010 Atlantic hurricane season."
3) look at the date Hurricane Danielle formed.
4) look at the latest GFS run
5) enjoy
100+
Quoting 1513. Sfloridacat5:
Aug.11, 1994


You mean 2004
Quoting 1515. nash36:


What "impact" are you wanting here?? A landfalling major hurricane that destroys lives, property, etc...????

Judging by your narrative, I believe that is what you want.

that's not what I want. I just don't care what impact, Infact I more like the ones that just barely miss the coast and send in good surf and that can be covered on the news. Not these tiny pieces of crap like Barry Chantal or Dorian. Andrea was the only one that was newsworthy
Quoting 1512. CybrTeddy:



1) Go on wikipedia.
2) search up "2010 Atlantic hurricane season."
3) look at the date Hurricane Danielle formed.
4) look at the latest GFS run
5) enjoy


I've stopped trying to tell people to stop whining and look at history. It simply mind boggles me people who continue to talk of a slow season or bust season when we are only at August 8th.
Quoting 1497. StormTrackerScott:
If the GFS is correct then it is possible that we may have a rapidly developing hurricane in the SE Gulf heading towrd the west coast of FL come mid next week.

Notice the anticyclone over where the center is so shear won't be an issue.


Moisture won't be an issue




Wouldn't anything in the Gulf move West with the steering the way it is?
1528. ncstorm
and just like clockwork in the next frame for the Euro..nothing..
Quoting 1522. 69Viking:


I've had water pooled in my front yard for over a month. Even those of us in Fort Walton Beach will be in trouble if we get rains from a Tropical System. The aquifer is full so water doesn't have anywhere to drain to.

For some reason I thought you were in P'cola. Yeah there are lower parts in this area. I think the difference is up here in the Twin Cities area where I am, there are a lot of "sandhills" which of course keep the water from pooling. There are several large watersheds and streams, the hills slope down to over here. But now that i think about it, Ft. Walton is pretty flat.
Quoting 1512. CybrTeddy:



1) Go on wikipedia.
2) search up "2010 Atlantic hurricane season."
3) look at the date Hurricane Danielle formed.
4) look at the latest GFS run
5) enjoy
People here loves boring tracking hurricanes in the Pacific.What for? Always nothing happens.
Quoting 1521. Envoirment:
96W in the WPAC



Organising quite quickly! OSCAT got a pass of it earlier



CMC and GFS both bring it up to Typhoon status.




So.
Quoting 1530. prcane4you:
People here loves boring tracking hurricanes in the Pacific.What for? Always nothing happens.

Thank you. At least one person who understands that Pacific storms are really boring
1533. Patrap
Quoting 1521. Envoirment:
96W in the WPAC



Organising quite quickly! OSCAT got a pass of it earlier



CMC and GFS both bring it up to Typhoon status.






Just kidding, but I think that is the attitude of some.
Quoting 1529. opal92nwf:

For some reason I thought you were in P'cola. Yeah there are lower parts in this area. I think the difference is up here in the Twin Cities area where I am, there are a lot of "sandhills" which of course keep the water from pooling. There are several large watersheds and streams, the hills slope down to over here. But now that i think about it, Ft. Walton is pretty flat.


When you say Twin Cities are you referring to Niceville and Valp?
1536. nigel20
Quoting Civicane49:
Impressive...


Yes indeed! Do you think that Henriette's intensity is steady or slightly stronger?
1537. 62901IL
Quoting 1504. Civicane49:
Impressive...


Hey civic, why did you change your avatar?
Quoting 1535. 69Viking:


When you say Twin Cities are you referring to Niceville and Valp?

Yep
Henriette looks like she want to make a run to hurricane status before dying.The epac has been really active the past days,getting sick of it.I am waiting for my fish to form in the Atlantic so I can have a little fun before entering school again.
After a while it gets boring discussing fantasy storms..it's like a guy discussing his fantasy girl and him going on and on about it...
Quoting 1540. allancalderini:
Henriette looks like she want to make a run to hurricane status before dying.The epac has been really active the past days,getting sick of it.I am waiting for my fish to form in the Atlantic so I can have a little fun before entering school again.

How a bout a hurricane hit your school instead? But you might not live near the coast...
Quoting 1530. prcane4you:
People here loves boring tracking hurricanes in the Pacific.What for? Always nothing happens.


Depends on what you mean by 'nothing happens'.

Ioke in 2006 was entertaining to follow.
1544. nash36
Simply cannot WAIT to see the same people who are having a meltdown over the inactivity in the ATL, try to keep up with, understand and follow three named storms all at once. It has happened SEVERAL times.

LOL!
1545. 62901IL
Quoting 1543. tristanh72:


Depends on what you mean by 'nothing happens'.

Ioke in 2006 was entertaining to follow.

And it attained category 5 intesnity 3 times!!
.
1547. Siker
Sheesh, some people seem to really hate the Pacific :P.
But seriously it's a tropical weather oriented blog. If there's nothing in the Atlantic why not look at the Pacific, so please stop spamming the blog with "who cares."
Quoting 1547. Siker:
Sheesh, Puerto Ricans seem to really hate the Pacific :P.
But seriously it's a tropical weather oriented blog. If there's nothing in the Atlantic why not look at the Pacific, so please stop spamming the blog with "who cares."


I like to track Tropical Cyclones around the world so take me out of that general PR mention.
Quoting 1532. PortoJuan:

Thank you. At least one person who understands that Pacific storms are really boring
True to a certain extent, but a weather enthusiast like myself loves to track hurricanes no matter which basin they are in. By the way one of the bloggers on here lives in one of the islands in Hawaii and as we've seen before it only takes one. In addition since you said Pacific storms I am wondering if you are referring to the entire basin in which would include the WPAC and South Pacific in particular Australia and Japan which both have a lot of people living there. Also I would think I would like to know what the weather would be like in that part of the world if say I were to be travelling there because if a Typhoon or Tropical Cyclone was bearing down on one of those areas I think I would cancel my plans.
Quoting 1544. nash36:
Simply cannot WAIT to see the same people who are having a meltdown over the inactivity in the ATL, try to keep up with, understand and follow three named storms all at once. It has happened SEVERAL times.

LOL!

Atleast then there's something actually interesting. I would much rather have 3 Atlantic storms to observe at once than just see the stupid East Pacific keep blowing up all for absolutely nothing
Quoting 1538. opal92nwf:

Yep


What's the 92 in your screen name for? Is that when you got to Florida, that's actually the year I moved to Fort Walton Beach, I arrived Labor Day of 92!
Quoting 1547. Siker:
Sheesh, Puerto Ricans seem to really hate the Pacific :P.
But seriously it's a tropical weather oriented blog. If there's nothing in the Atlantic why not look at the Pacific, so please stop spamming the blog with "who cares."
People have a right not to care about the pacific like me.Majority of the storms are irrelevant and about half of the people on the blog will forget about about them anyway.
Quoting 1541. washingtonian115:
After a while it gets boring discussing fantasy storms..it's like a guy discussing his fantasy girl and him going on and on about it...


What else are people supposed to do?
Quoting 1547. Siker:
Sheesh, Puerto Ricans seem to really hate the Pacific :P.
But seriously it's a tropical weather oriented blog. If there's nothing in the Atlantic why not look at the Pacific, so please stop spamming the blog with "who cares."


Puerto Ricans hate the Pacific because Hawaiians exterminated the Coqui Frogs we transplanted in Hawaii from Puerto Rico.
Up to 90 knots.

EP, 08, 2013080818, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1389W, 90, 976, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 10, 10, 10, 1012, 120, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HENRIETTE, D,
1556. JLPR2
Quoting 1547. Siker:
Sheesh, Puerto Ricans seem to really hate the Pacific :P.
But seriously it's a tropical weather oriented blog. If there's nothing in the Atlantic why not look at the Pacific, so please stop spamming the blog with "who cares."


Eh! Don't generalize!
I love E-Pac storms as long as they turn into hurricanes and dont hit land.
Quoting 1553. clwstmchasr:


What else are people supposed to do?
You all can keep discussing..but for me after a while it get boring.
Quoting 1552. washingtonian115:
People have a right not to care about the pacific like me.Majority of the storms are irrelevant and about half of the people on the blog will forget about about them anyway.
Until one hits Mexico, Hawaii, Japan, China, and Australia right? Do we still go by the saying "we don't care?" Would sound a little bit selfish right? I'm just saying Washi, not trying to cause any arguments between you and me.
1559. Siker
Quoting 1552. washingtonian115:
People have a right not to care about the pacific like me.Majority of the storms are irrelevant and about half of the people on the blog will forget about about them anyway.
I understand, I don't really enjoy watching it either but that's no reason for people to start saying "who cares." repeatedly when it gets mentioned.
Quoting 1555. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Up to 90 knots.

EP, 08, 2013080818, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1389W, 90, 976, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 10, 10, 10, 1012, 120, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HENRIETTE, D,
She is a fighter, one last go at it?
1561. Siker
Sorry about the Puerto Rico reference, I just found it funny how two people both started complaining about the attention towards the Pacific at the same time and they both happened to be from PR. No offense meant.
Quoting 1542. opal92nwf:

How a bout a hurricane hit your school instead? But you might not live near the coast...
Lol I actually live close to the coast,and I love going to school. :D
Quoting 1558. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Until one hits Mexico, Hawaii, Japan, China, and Australia right? Do we still go by the saying "we don't care?" Would sound a little bit selfish right? I'm just saying Washi, not trying to cause any arguments between you and me.
I believe she is just refering of the epac and that most of them are fish.
Quoting 1513. Sfloridacat5:
Aug.11, 1994


Shouldn't that be 2004?
Just saw the GFS, very interesting, and I will be the first to say I was wrong with my prediction if that pans out, however its just one run. We need to see it multiple times, still a long ways out, but good call to the guys that said something like that could happen.
1566. JLPR2


Nice, only 15mph more! Oh come on, I want a major! XD
Quoting 1527. 69Viking:


Wouldn't anything in the Gulf move West with the steering the way it is?


Strong trough will be moving in next week. SW steering all across the eastern half of the Gulf.
Quoting 1555. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Up to 90 knots.

EP, 08, 2013080818, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1389W, 90, 976, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 10, 10, 10, 1012, 120, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HENRIETTE, D,


Not giving up quite yet...
Quoting 1555. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Up to 90 knots.

EP, 08, 2013080818, , BEST, 0, 172N, 1389W, 90, 976, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 10, 10, 10, 1012, 120, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HENRIETTE, D,


100mph. Nice storm to look at.
1570. ncstorm
hmm..12z GFS ensembles spread seeing three places of interest..hour 240





last frame

Who has the 12z Euro? Does it has the same as GFS in terms of the African Wave?
1572. FOREX
Quoting 1569. StormTrackerScott:


100mph. Nice storm to look at.


The potential storm in the gulf next week. what was the pressure at landfall?
1573. ncstorm
CFS is currently running..the ensemble spread for the first frame at hour 396

Impressive stuff from Henriette. First category 2 of the EPAC season.

Quoting 1571. Tropicsweatherpr:
Who has the 12z Euro? Does it has the same as GFS in terms of the African Wave?
Link was just looking at it.
Beautiful hurricane in the EPAC so far.

CYCLONE 08E

1578. ncstorm




1579. Patrap
The eye looks like it is clearing out more and more.

Quoting 1551. 69Viking:


What's the 92 in your screen name for? Is that when you got to Florida, that's actually the year I moved to Fort Walton Beach, I arrived Labor Day of 92!

It's for hurricane Andrew, one of the hurricanes that fascinates me the most. And the Opal of course if for the most significant storm to affect where I live in the recent past.
1582. Patrap
1583. Patrap
1584. ncstorm
Last frame on the 12z Euro

Quoting 1578. ncstorm:






using the CFS outside its reasonable time window... priceless...
Rumble rumble grumble Boom...
goes the sky here this afternoon.

rain soon come.
XXL/AOI/XX
MARK
28N/61W

Henriette is currently an intensifying strong Category 2 hurricane while located over 25C waters.

Not the first example of a system strengthening over supposed less-than-ample ocean temperatures.
1589. nigel20
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
The eye looks like it is clearing out more and more.


Maybe it'll have enough time to become a brief major.
Quoting 1584. ncstorm:
Last frame on the 12z Euro



So it does not have the hurricane GFS has at same timeframe.
1591. MTWX
Anyone want to trade weather?? Really, I'm up for anything better than here!!!

Current Temp: 93.4 F

Humidity: 83%

Heat index: 130 F

Wind: 0

Columbus, MS
I've been looking at the archives...
this lull is just normal. Look at 2010 and 1999 for examples.
Quoting 1569. StormTrackerScott:


100mph. Nice storm to look at.

You mean 105mph, as that is roughly what 90kts converts to? It definitely is a nice storm to look at, maybe it could even strengthen a little more.
Quoting 1501. Dragod66:


Nice! See ya back in tropics talk when we start heating up?


Yup I'll be there, and hopefully no imposters this time around! Lol
Hot off the press! 12z FIM-7:

Quoting 1581. opal92nwf:

It's for hurricane Andrew, one of the hurricanes that fascinates me the most. And the Opal of course if for the most significant storm to affect where I live in the recent past.


Cool, Opal is the only storm I evacuated for since I've lived in the area. Ironically when I inprocessed at Eglin Air Force Base in 1992 I inprocessed with Air Force members who were previously assigned to Homestead Air Force Base before Andrew flattened it!
1598. nigel20
Quoting JrWeathermanFL:
I've been looking at the archives...
this lull is just normal. Look at 2010 and 1999 for examples.

2004 also had a lull up to July 30th..we all know what came after that.
1599. Patrap
Calamity comes..

Quoting 1512. CybrTeddy:



1) Go on wikipedia.
2) search up "2010 Atlantic hurricane season."
3) look at the date Hurricane Danielle formed.
4) look at the latest GFS run
5) enjoy

The MJO should return in the next week or so, during the peak season, similar activity to the analog 2010 season.
1602. SLU
Quoting 1. ryang:
Good blog!

Question though...what has been causing the dry conditions across the Caribbean? Is it the strong ridge causing all the dry air? We just had one of our driest Julys on record.


Sorry for the late response.

Dry air is very typical of July mainly because of the SAL outbreaks. Even then we had 2 named storms in the MDR in July which occurs mostly in hyperactive seasons. Once the pressures start to fall (which they are), everything should fall into place. The overall conditions are rather favourable for a 150 ACE kind of season which means that we're in for an exciting next 8 weeks.

Quoting 1591. MTWX:
Anyone want to trade weather?? Really, I'm up for anything better than here!!!

Current Temp: 93.4 F

Humidity: 83%

Heat index: 130 F

Wind: 0

Columbus, MS


Personal weather stations tend to not always have the most accurate data. According to other official weather sites it says your area is at 91, humidity is 64% and the heat index is 105. Still hot but not too extreme.
Quoting 1578. ncstorm:






That's one month out, no one cares. They're basically just guessing.
Quoting 1554. CaneHunter031472:


Puerto Ricans hate the Pacific because Hawaiians exterminated the Coqui Frogs we transplanted in Hawaii from Puerto Rico.
Who cares,sorry JLPR2
Quoting 1596. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hot off the press! 12z FIM-7:

. Hello GT , Is that for next week , if so is that , early or late next week ?
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DECREASED.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE
THE LOW MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

Quoting 1566. JLPR2:


Nice, only 15mph more! Oh come on, I want a major! XD
Bah.
Quoting 1606. EyEtoEyE:
. Hello GT , Is that for next week , if so is that , early or late next week ?


Late next week.
KABOOM!

and....

sounds like the sky loudly ripped from one side to the other

The rain is here!
Despite being situated over marginal sea surface temperatures, Henriette has managed to intensify significantly over the last several hours. Small hurricanes, like Henriette, tend to organize and strengthen rapidly than other larger tropical cyclones. We'll see if this becomes the first major in the eastern Pacific.

1612. nigel20
Quoting SLU:


Sorry for the late response.

Dry air is very typical of July mainly because of the SAL outbreaks. Even then we had 2 named storms in the MDR in July which occurs mostly in hyperactive seasons. Once the pressures start to fall (which they are), everything should fall into place. The overall conditions are rather favourable for a 150 ACE kind of season which means that we're in for an exciting next 8 weeks.


Hi SLU! July is usually the driest month here in Jamaica though may have had below normal rainfall.
Not as strong as a trough on the FIM-9 and not as strong as a storm either, but it only goes out to 7 days.

1614. StormWx
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
If the GFS is correct then it is possible that we may have a rapidly developing hurricane in the SE Gulf heading towrd the west coast of FL come mid next week.

Notice the anticyclone over where the center is so shear won't be an issue.


Moisture won't be an issue




Here we go again Jeff9641, RastaSteve, Stormtracker2k!!!! Everything is coming to central florida right? Florida is getting lots of rain too! Every year, we can count on you for DOOM :-)
1615. FOREX
Quoting 1613. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Not as strong as a trough on the FIM-9 and not as strong as a storm either, but it only goes out to 7 days.



how often does this model initialize?
1616. SuzK
Quoting 1419. JrWeathermanFL:
In reguards to 1401, we definately don't need any more rain here in Chiefland, FL. We're overflowing here. Andrea sure helped alot...We've had rain everyday. And in the past week we've had funnel clouds over my house twice. One of which I could look up and see it spinning...freaky.


I can always tell when the vortex is overhead by the hairs all over my body standing up! There is an oddness to the air pressure. It is very freaky!
Sorta feels like something trying to spin up
here in the Southern Bahamas....

I wonder if I soon will be under a yellow circle?

1618. JLPR2
Quoting 1605. prcane4you:
Who cares,sorry JLPR2


I bet the phrase: "you are annoying" isn't new to you, right?

If you don't care for what's happening in the tropics at the moment, what are you doing here? Go and watch paint dry or something
Quoting 1611. Civicane49:
Despite being situated over marginal sea surface temperatures, Henriette has managed to intensify significantly over the last several hours. Small hurricanes, like Henriette, tend to organize and strengthen rapidly than other larger tropical cyclones. We'll see if this becomes the first major in the eastern Pacific.

Is this gonna make landfall here in P.R.?
Big hurricane coming to caribbean next week maybe hurricane Gustav again!!!
Quoting 1618. JLPR2:


I bet the phrase: "you are annoying" isn't new to you, right?

If you don't care for what's happening in the tropics at the moment, what are you doing here? Go and watch paint dry or something
Funny guy.
Quoting 1615. FOREX:


how often does this model initialize?
4 times a day. 0z, 6z, 12z, and 18z.
Quoting 1620. Camille33:
Big hurricane coming to caribbean next week maybe hurricane Gustav again!!!


Just yesterday you said no storms till a while lol, you just follow everyone on here.

IGNORED
Quoting 1620. Camille33:
Big hurricane coming to caribbean next week maybe hurricane Gustav again!!!
Where is it now? Maybe forming in Saudi Arabia.?
Quoting 1614. StormWx:


Here we go again Jeff9641, RastaSteve, Stormtracker2k!!!! Everything is coming to central florida right? Florida is getting lots of rain too! Every year, we can count on you for DOOM :-)
. Well if those models , are correct , and they have the storm over Florida , or near the west coast of Florida , then it will be Florida , not anywhere else , that's where they have it you can't argue with the models!
Interesting?, I wonder if that upper level Low over the Bahamas is trying to work down to the surface?, it seems that it's trying to tight up a bit.
Quoting 1597. 69Viking:


Cool, Opal is the only storm I evacuated for since I've lived in the area. Ironically when I inprocessed at Eglin Air Force Base in 1992 I inprocessed with Air Force members who were previously assigned to Homestead Air Force Base before Andrew flattened it!

Yes, there was an evacuation nightmare with Opal, as people woke up to a 150 cat 4 with a pressure lower than Andrew, and the storm was moving at more than 20mph. I've read accounts of people abandoning their cars on bridges and riding out the storm in a public building because the traffic was so slow.

Oh, and Andrew at Homestead Air Force Base was a doozie: This video has some good footage of the base starting at 3:49
img src="">
Quoting 1619. prcane4you:
Is this gonna make landfall here in P.R.?


He is very interested because he lives in Hawaii. I am also interested very much about this hurricane even if I live in San Juan Puerto Rico because I like to track Tropical Cyclones from all the basins.
So, is there anything to this big blob in the front at 61.5W, 27N?

Link

Sorry if someone has already pointed this out.
bad news for the usa here!! the big high its going back soon!!
Quoting 1623. SuperStorm093:


Just yesterday you said no storms till a while lol, you just follow everyone on here.

IGNORED

you dont know anything!! hehehe
SEVERAL OF THE ATLANTA METRO AREA CREEKS HAD RAPID RISES...BUT WERE
STILL WITHIN THEIR BANKS AT THIS TIME. THE MOST IMPRESSIVE RISE WAS
ON COBBS CREEK NEAR SNAPFINGER IN SOUTH DEKALB COUNTY. THE CREEK
ROSE EARLIER AROUND 8.5 FEET IN 90 MINUTES AND CREST AT 10.8 FEET.
FLOOD STAGE IS 11 FEET. THE CREEK IS NOW FALLING.




Would suck if you had been kayaking.

Also more rain is still around the area.
what happern here!!
Quoting 1631. Camille33:

you dont know anything!! hehehe


I don't really? You are the one that said Dorian was going to become Wilma lol and how did that 60 KT storm come out> I told you that wasn't going to happen.
everyone be nice, we are all here to learn from each other. everyone has had to eat crow now and then. its part of life.
1636. nigel20
Quoting Civicane49:
Despite being situated over marginal sea surface temperatures, Henriette has managed to intensify significantly over the last several hours. Small hurricanes, like Henriette, tend to organize and strengthen rapidly than other larger tropical cyclones. We'll see if this becomes the first major in the eastern Pacific.


Hurricane Michael (2012) was quite impressive as well.

big storm coming if this shear is right!!! Next week look out!!
Run this loop and you will see the 850 vort. start to show up at 90 hrs. on the north coast of Venezuela track it as it moves wnw into the caribbean and breaks off a piece of energy from the Columbian Heat Low. MJO upward motion would be the cause for something like that?

Link
Quoting 1629. RascalNag:
So, is there anything to this big blob in the front at 61.5W, 27N?

Link

Sorry if someone has already pointed this out.


Not sure but it is sitting over 84 degree water so anything is possible!

2013 Storms




All

Active

Year




Atlantic



East Pacific


green ball93E.INVEST


green ball92E.INVEST


green ball08E.HENRIETTE



Central Pacific



West Pacific


green ball11W.INVEST



Indian Ocean



Southern Hemisphere
ALERT ATCF MIL 96X XXX 130808120000
2013080812
12.0 137.4
13.6 133.3
140
12.1 136.7
081630
1308081621
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN21 PGTW 081630
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.0N 137.4E TO 13.6N 133.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.1N 136.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 091630Z.
//
9613080712 121N1379E 15
9613080718 121N1376E 15
9613080800 121N1374E 15
9613080806 121N1372E 15
9613080812 121N1367E 20
NNNN

Quoting 1628. Tropicsweatherpr:


He is very interested because he lives in Hawaii. I am also interested very much about this hurricane even if I live in San Juan Puerto Rico because I like to track Tropical Cyclones from all the basins.
Coqui Frogs says there gonna be no hurricanes here in P.R.Saludo boricua desde Bayamon.
Quoting 1640. 69Viking:


Not sure but it is sitting over 84 degree water so anything is possible!
Blob trackers strikes again.
1646. ncstorm
Quoting 1590. Tropicsweatherpr:


So it does not have the hurricane GFS has at same timeframe.


No..
Quoting 1636. nigel20:

Hurricane Michael (2012) was quite impressive as well.


It too was a small hurricane.

Western Pacific has a developing tropical cyclone east of the Philippines, could become a super typhoon sometime in the next five days as it treks westward.
Quoting 1596. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Hot off the press! 12z FIM-7:


Dead gummit.
Quoting 1619. prcane4you:
Is this gonna make landfall here in P.R.?

the most intense troll question i`ve seen!
1651. LargoFl
TAMPA --
A small fire in a silo at the Port of Tampa briefly released chemical fumes in the area near southern downtown Tampa Thursday morning.

According to Tampa Police, firefighters put out the fire and the situation was quickly under control.

Officials had advised people to stay indoors near Harbour Island due to chemical fumes coming from the port.


Officials with Tampa Fire Rescue said Sulfur dioxide was causing the odor during the fire.

There were no injuries reported.
Quoting 1649. Stormchaser121:

Dead gummit.
Waiting for the FIM-8 that one had Texas on the last run.

For a Category 2, Henriette probably has the smallest core of them all. Hurricane-force winds cannot extend out more than 15 miles from the center.

Quoting 1650. Josihua2:

the most intense troll question i`ve seen!
Needs a really big turn huh? This blog is amazing.
1655. LargoFl
1656. 62901IL
Quoting 1619. prcane4you:
Is this gonna make landfall here in P.R.?

LOL. No it will not.
Quoting 1486. JLPR2:
Impressive TCHP in the Western Caribbean, it's actually the highest in the area at this date since the record of the images start on 2005.



Decent TCHP in the NE Carib as well XD
1658. SLU
Quoting 1612. nigel20:

Hi SLU! July is usually the driest month here in Jamaica though may have had below normal rainfall.


Yo Nigel

The entire Caribbean has had very dry air all season long which is quite strange. The fast trades have also torn apart the waves which would usually bring some rain. With the pressures lowering, the winds will decrease leading to healthier waves and more rain in the Caribbean this month.
Check this out if you're bored:



This one is even worse:

Quoting 1650. Josihua2:

the most intense troll question i`ve seen!
And the biggest and historical TURN ever seen.Lol
Quoting 1656. 62901IL:

LOL. No it will not.
Just need a little turn from Pacific to East Atlantic.
1663. nigel20
Quoting SLU:


Yo Nigel

The entire Caribbean has had very dry air all season long which is quite strange. The fast trades have also torn apart the waves which would usually bring some rain. With the pressures lowering, the winds will decrease leading to healthier waves and more rain in the Caribbean this month.

We're seeing an increase in rainfall activity over the past couple of days...rain is in the forecast up to August 14.

How are you enjoying the CPL?
Quoting 1660. prcane4you:
And the biggest and historical TURN ever seen.Lol

*grabs drum set* ba dum dum tiss! LOL!
1003 mb low!!
Quoting 1665. hurricanes2018:
1003 mb low!!


old news it becomes a hurricane and recurves.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12
3:00 AM JST August 9 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In Sea East Of The Philippines

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 12.3N 135.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 13.1N 131.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Sea East Of The Philippines
Quoting 1652. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Waiting for the FIM-8 that one had Texas on the last run.


When does that one come out?
Interesting what the GFS model is hinting for next week a strong tropical storm or hurricane making landfall on the west coast of Florida. Tampa is an overdue city for a landfalling trop. system and storm surge would be severe for the tampa bay area. A city with a higher pop. than New Orleans.Something to keep our eyes on as a possible disaster brewing.
2009 was the best when it came to a race against a name..The T.D that became Anna was suffering from dry air and shear while the the T.D that became Bill took forever to come together.
1672. barbamz
Good evening with some weather news:

1 dead as flooding washes over 12 Midwestern, Eastern states
Posted on: 2:12 pm, August 8, 2013, by CNN Wire, updated on: 02:31pm, August 8, 2013

As rescue teams were performing 18 “swift water rescues” in McDonald County, Missouri, Thursday morning, the woman — thought to be in her 60s — was driving over a bridge when she was caught up in “rapidly rising waters,” said Gregg Sweeten, the county’s emergency management director.

Sweeten said he was hopeful the Elk River, which runs through this county on the Arkansas state line, about 80 miles southwest of Springfield, Missouri, would crest late Thursday night.

South of the capital, Jefferson City, Interstate 44 was shut down because of high water. It’s since been reopened.

Forecasters warn that areas along the Gasconade River could see record water levels, and widespread flooding is expected to continue in Missouri and Kansas into the weekend.

Southern Missouri has witnessed widespread flash flooding as parts of 12 Midwestern and Eastern states experienced some sort of flood watch or warning Thursday.

Nashville, Tennessee, was one of the hardest hit, as parts of the city saw as many as 8 inches of rain overnight and in the morning. Another 1 to 3 inches were expected Thursday afternoon and evening, according to forecasters. ...



Hundreds forced to evacuate their homes as killer floods and out-of-control wildfires wreak havoc across the country
Daily Mail, by Helen Collis, PUBLISHED: 09:36 GMT, 8 August 2013 | UPDATED: 12:49 GMT, 8 August 2013

Raging wildfire in San Jacinto Mountains near Banning, California, has evacuated 1,500 residents, destroyed homes

Three people injured by the out-of-control blaze, including two firefighters and a resident who was airlifted to hospital

In Missouri, heavy rain has caused the banks of the Gasconade River and Little Piney Creek to burst, closing roads

A child has died and a woman believed to be the mother is missing after flooding in the area this week....

Quoting 1664. Josihua2:

*grabs drum set* ba dum dum tiss! LOL!
I'm still laughing.Ilove this blog,its so funny
Quoting 1661. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






Lake O is already at 16 feet. 16.5 ft is labeled as 'dangerous'by the Army Corp of Engineers.
This may be the year that we may see unprecedented flood damage in and around the lake; specifically Palm Beach ,Hendry and Glades counties.
1675. JLPR2
Quoting 1661. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






Noticed that, seems that weak system is the one that creates a strong enough break in the ridge to make the ghostly CV system recurve.
1676. Levi32
CMC ensembles are starting to see a more focused area of precipitation with the disturbance I've been talking about that should enter the Gulf of Mexico near the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula in about a week. No models developed this earlier this week, but some are now hinting at it. The environment will favor development of some kind.

Quoting 1614. StormWx:


Here we go again Jeff9641, RastaSteve, Stormtracker2k!!!! Everything is coming to central florida right? Florida is getting lots of rain too! Every year, we can count on you for DOOM :-)


First off I am not who you think I am and secondly yes I do live in C FL as do many others on this blog do. So go troll another blog. Anyways what do you have to offer to the blog other than trolling?

Looks as if our seed for Caribbean developement is sitting on the North Coast of South America.
Quoting 1671. washingtonian115:
2009 was the best when it came to a race against a name..The T.D that became Anna was suffering from dry air and shear while the the T.D that became Bill took forever to come together.
Bill was a huge hurricane! In an El-Nino season which also featured Major Hurricane Ida in the Western Caribbean. Just goes to show you every season has their moments, except for 1914. :P

Quoting 1676. Levi32:
CMC ensembles are starting to see a more focused area of precipitation with the disturbance I've been talking about that should enter the Gulf of Mexico near the tip of the Yucatan Peninsula in about a week. No models developed this earlier this week, but some are now hinting at it. The environment will favor development of some kind.


Hopefully TX bound
Quoting 1675. JLPR2:


Noticed that, seems that weak system is the one that creates a strong enough break in the ridge to make the ghostly CV system recurve.


this is system from the gulf position at the end of the run

not we need to see if it keeps showing it and move it up in time with each new run


Quoting 1674. rmbjoe1954:


Lake O is already at 16 feet. 16.5 ft is labedled as 'dangerous'by the Army Corp of Engineers.
This may be the year that we may see unprecedented flood damage in and around the lake; specifically Palm Beach ,Hendry and Glades counties.


Lots of water draining down the Kissimmee River from Orlando as well. If we do get another tropical system hitting FL next week then we would see serious flooding all across the Penisula the like of which we haven't seen since the 1960's.
First JTWC advisory on TD 11W. Peaks at 120kts.



WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/081621Z AUG 13//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 12.3N 135.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 135.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 13.1N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.9N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.6N 130.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 15.2N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 16.8N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 19.2N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.2N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5N 135.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11W (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 313 NM
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
081800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND
092100Z. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 081621Z AUG 13 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 081630).//
NNNN

1683. Grothar
Quoting 1629. RascalNag:
So, is there anything to this big blob in the front at 61.5W, 27N?

Link

Sorry if someone has already pointed this out.


I posted it last night and this morning. As far as I know, there is no interest in it yet.

1684. 62901IL
Quoting 1683. Grothar:


I posted it last night and this morning. As far as I know, there is no interest in it yet.


Have you designated a blobcon?
Quoting 1678. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Bill was a huge hurricane! In an El-Nino season which also featured Major Hurricane Ida in the Western Caribbean. Just goes to show you every season has their moments, except for 1914. :P

I like to see another Bill but this time with a storm name Monica
1686. LargoFl
Being bored and, all, I decided to rennovate the National Hurricane Center page. If ya'll are fans of the NWS page, you'll like this. ALL SYMBOLS AND PRODUCTS USED HERE COURTESY NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION.

FIM-8 is likely running now, the grids are cleared for the 12z run.
Quoting 1661. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Quoting 1684. 62901IL:

Have you designated a blobcon?
Blobber.
1691. 62901IL
Quoting 1687. Hurricane1216:
Being bored and, all, I decided to rennovate the National Hurricane Center page. If ya'll are fans of the NWS page, you'll like this.


OMG!Is that real?!!?!?!?!?1
1692. 62901IL
Quoting 1690. prcane4you:
Blobber.

Blob blob blob blob blob blob blob blob
If this pans out to be true and the models are spot on we could be talking about a catastrophic event for the Tampa bay area because of storm surge primarily. Plus the ground here in central Florida is very saturated so flooding would be another major issue well inland like here in Orlando.
Quoting 1691. 62901IL:

OMG!Is that real?!!?!?!?!?1


No, just did some image modification work, but it looks realistic nonetheless :P
1695. 62901IL
Quoting 1694. Hurricane1216:


No, just did some image modification work, but it looks realistic nonetheless :P

I appreciate it! don't take it off, no matter what anyone says.
Hi Dr. Masters, " weather newbie " here. I have a question about the naming of Hurricanes. When & why did tropical storms of less than 74MPH in strength start getting names ? I remember that some years ago,( Yep.. I AM that old ! ) a tropical depression or storm was never given any name until it actually became an " official " Hurricane at 74+ MPH. What prompted this question I guess was " Dorian " .. a tropical storm that really never blossomed into anything close to a Hurricane but was given Weather Groupie " Rock Star " status anyhow by being given a " name ".. Another reason I am asking is that there seems to always be a reference to " named storms " when comparing present day Hurricane Season Forecasts vs. the actual storms a number of years ago. Seems to be comparing Apples to Oranges since every storm over 45 MPH these days seems to be given a name... unlike years ago when only storms of 74+ MPH was given a name. Thanks Dr. Masters, you have a wonderful site !
1697. icmoore
1893 Troll and hype much!?! Go away if that's all you came for.
1698. Gearsts
1699. 62901IL
Quoting 1698. Gearsts:

LOL
1700. Grothar
NCEP still consistent with development in the Gulf for almost two weeks now in the same time frame.




1701. LargoFl
I am so glad My county had the foresight to go ahead and put in new and larger storm drains..seems like its been ongoing and yes sometimes all this construction gets to be a pain but hopefully with what they already have done will prevent that serious flooding that comes with lakes full and all that street flooding like we've seen happen in the past
I think we need some Troll Spray.
Gulf is open for business.

Quoting 1599. Patrap:
Calamity comes..



The last part of it seemed surreal & like the aftermath from the monster-rampage in an old Godzilla movie. I wonder what Cat-level hurr. it might take to do that in Houston, Miami, Mobile, etc. There has been so much building in the South in recent years.

-- THANKS for posting the video: a stark reminder of what nature can do.
1705. Grothar
Quoting 1684. 62901IL:

Have you designated a blobcon?


No, just an AOPBF for now.
1706. SLU
Quoting 1663. nigel20:

We're seeing an increase in rainfall activity over the past couple of days...rain is in the forecast up to August 14.

How are you enjoying the CPL?


OK.
It's great. Another big game here tonight :D
1707. 62901IL
Quoting 1703. StormTrackerScott:
Gulf is open for business.



Hmm, let's see.82, 84, 84, 85, 84, 86, 85, 84, 84, 84, 85, 85, 83, 84, 84...The most common number is 84.
Quoting 1692. 62901IL:

Blob blob blob blob blob blob blob blob
I love man,you got it.
1709. LargoFl
1710. 62901IL

Quoting 1708. prcane4you:
I love man,you got it.


blob blob blob blob blob blob blob blob
(Keeps saying it until he gets to number 5783.)
1711. Gearsts

1712. Grothar
1713. Patrap
Quoting 1704. WalkingInTheSun:


The last part of it seemed surreal & like the aftermath from the monster-rampage in an old Godzilla movie. I wonder what Cat-level hurr. it might take to do that in Houston, Miami, Mobile, etc. There has been so much building in the South in recent years.


I'm going to use this video, well parts of it to show how Humans react when faced with Calamity.

It's a terrible thing to watch your Town being destroyed before your very eyes.

Shock, disbelief, grief, sadness, depression, PTSD, all are a common thread post Calamity, regardless of what brings it.



1714. Gearsts
Quoting 1712. Grothar:
HA you were defeated!
Here in Orlando we would also be impacted by high winds and flooding. So It's better to be safe than sorry and prepare just in case.
Wow!...So hot today in south Florida ...(quoting Johnny Carson) "How Hot Was It"?
1717. Grothar
GFS at 216 hours. I don't trust anything over 215.

Quoting 1716. PalmBeachWeather:
Wow!...So hot today in south Florida ...(quoting Johnny Carson) "How Hot Was It"?


It's hot everyday in FL for about 7 months. Same old weather just a different day.
1719. barbamz
Fresh BBC weather video concentrates on the contrasts in current US weather:

Wildfires and floods in USA
8 August 2013 Last updated at 18:54 Help

A wildfire that broke out in the San Jacinto mountains, east of Los Angeles has spread exponentially, burning homes and forcing the evacuation of fifteen hundred people. It's left three people injured, two fire-fighters and one civilian. Helicopters, air tankers and planes have been drafted in to help more than 500 fire-fighters battle the flames which are being fanned by strong winds spreading them over 6,000 acres.

In complete contrast, the picture in Missouri is very different. Around 17 inches of rain has fallen so far and a woman and her son have died after being swept away by flood waters. Flash flooding has washed away bridges and roads, and river levels have reached historic peaks. The state governor has declared a state of emergency and deployed the National Guard to help residents affected by the floodwaters. Jay Wynne explains more and has the forecast for these areas.

is there any chance that ULL near Florida is working it's way down to the surface ?
Quoting 1702. StormTrackerScott:
I think we need some Troll Spray.
Yep,also for unwanted and frustated meteorogists.
1722. Patrap
History and climatology all come into play now as we lean into the Meat o da Season in the Basin.

Make ready your plans, stocks, evac destination.

What you do this week and weekend will make you that much further along if the bell rings in your neck o da woods..



1723. Grothar
Quoting 1714. Gearsts:
HA you were defeated!


My fingers are old, couldn't you give me a handicap?

It
was posted at the same time.
Updated EURO mslp for August big reversal has low pressures basin wide. It's all there for an active season. Should be out to public in a few weeks. Now lets see if we can actually get some bonified TC's in a few weeks.
Quoting 1717. Grothar:
GFS at 216 hours. I don't trust anything over 215.



I don't trust anything beyond 144 hours, but luckily the GFS begins to emerge this system by then.
The drought map of Hawaii has been updated. Although Flossie passed the islands during early last week and brought needed rain, it did not significantly lessen the drought for the eastern half of the state, which was impacted heavily by Flossie. Nonetheless, it appeared to have prevented a worsening of the drought.

Further information can be found here.

Quoting 1724. hurricane23:
Updated EURO mslp for August big reversal has low pressures basin wide. It's all there for an active season. Should be out to public in a few weeks. Now lets see if we can actually get some bonified TC's in a few weeks.


On the 15th.
Quoting 1720. weatherlover94:
is there any chance that ULL near Florida is working it's way down to the surface ?


No not right now. Infact it should ope up in the Gulf in about 72 hours.

1729. Gearsts
Quoting 1723. Grothar:


My fingers are old, couldn't you give me a handicap?

It
was posted at the same time.
LOL
Quoting 1720. weatherlover94:
is there any chance that ULL near Florida is working it's way down to the surface ?
No,I think the ULL will stay up in the air close to the troposphere.
Quoting 1724. hurricane23:
Updated EURO mslp for August big reversal has low pressures basin wide. It's all there for an active season. Should be out to public in a few weeks. Now lets see if we can actually get some bonified TC's in a few weeks.


NOAA/CSU/TSR all continue to say in their August updates an active season as well. Forecaster Blake thinks looking at the models the third week of August will be quite potent as shear begins to drop. We'll probably get 2-4 named storms this month as the wave train begins to crank out CV storms.
Did you ever stub your big toe on the corner of the bed at 3:37 in the morning? I sure didn't need that....
1733. LargoFl
the following weekend might be interesting in the gulf huh...GFS at 192 hours..
1734. nigel20
Quoting Grothar:
GFS at 216 hours. I don't trust anything over 215.


:) Hi Grothar! How have you been? Is it still wet in your neck of the woods?
Quoting 1725. CybrTeddy:


I don't trust anything beyond 144 hours, but luckily the GFS begins to emerge this system by then.
not buying the fish storm eh? me too. just want some consistency i remember when dean was over africa, GFS had him east of bermuda, off the OBX, Gulf coast and mexico. 1 of those solutions verified :)
Quoting 1696. DelawareJack:
Hi Dr. Masters, " weather newbie " here. I have a question about the naming of Hurricanes. When & why did tropical storms of less than 74MPH in strength start getting names ? I remember that some years ago,( Yep.. I AM that old ! ) a tropical depression or storm was never given any name until it actually became an " official " Hurricane at 74 MPH. What prompted this question I guess was " Dorian " .. a tropical storm that really never blossomed into anything close to a Hurricane but was given Weather Groupie " Rock Star " status anyhow by being given a " name ".. Another reason I am asking is that there seems to always be a reference to " named storms " when comparing present day Hurricane Season Forecasts vs. the actual storms a number of years ago. Seems to be comparing Apples to Oranges since every storm over 45 MPH these days seems to be given a name... unlike years ago when only storms of 74 MPH was given a name. Thanks Dr. Masters, you have a wonderful site !


All known systems reaching tropical storm strength received names from 1950 on. In the public advisories that means from 40 mph on up. The standard for naming tropical cyclones hasn't changed.

Except that subtropical storms are now named since 2003. That is different.
1737. Gearsts
Quoting 1731. CybrTeddy:


NOAA/CSU/TSR all continue to say in their August updates an active season as well. Forecaster Blake thinks looking at the models the third week of August will be quite potent as shear begins to drop. We'll probably get 2-4 named storms this month as the wave train begins to crank out CV storms.
Can i get a link?
Quoting 1724. hurricane23:
Updated EURO mslp for August big reversal has low pressures basin wide. It's all there for an active season. Should be out to public in a few weeks. Now lets see if we can actually get some bonified TC's in a few weeks.



Adrian, it's starting to sound like we may be tracking two or three systems at the same time.
Quoting 1732. PalmBeachWeather:
Did you ever stub your big toe on the corner of the bed at 3:37 in the morning? I sure didn't need that....


I did and it ripped my big toe nail off. That hurt like a you know what.
New NHC hurricane forecast is out hardly any change

Link
1741. Patrap
Well,I did tell Grothar, "that's NOT the finger to Hold up when asking Alexander the Great you need 1 Boat", for us to get back to Asia then.


1742. LargoFl
Once again we remind folks..are your hurricane kits and plans ready?
1743. auburn
Interesting post by Levi.

The 12z GFS has a warm-core tropical cyclone moving northward towards the Aleutian Islands at the end of the run in 16 days. I have never wished so hard for the GFS fantasy forecast to verify. North Pacific sea surface temperatures are at record levels. A typhoon or tropical storm headed due north in the absence of a big trough would likely make it to the Aleutians with a warm-core structure given the environment this year. Imagine an observed tropical cyclone landfall in Alaska!
Quoting 1733. LargoFl:
the following weekend might be interesting in the gulf huh...GFS at 192 hours..


If the Low headed for the FL-straits continues at speed & building wrap like it is, I suppose it could get some drama even sooner than that.
Quoting 1740. wunderkidcayman:
New NHC hurricane forecast is out hardly any change

Link


Actually it did change though, less in each category.
Quoting 1737. Gearsts:
Can i get a link?


Here is todays NOAA August forecast.

Link
Quoting 1745. SuperStorm093:


Actually it did change though, less in each category.

By 1 which is hardly a difference to the last
Quoting 1745. SuperStorm093:


Actually it did change though, less in each category.


numbers still very scary though
1749. LargoFl
GFS at 180 hours....................
Well this is to much for today.Believe I laughed too much and enjoy you all.Have a nice day everyone.Lets find anti stroll spray.
Quoting 1717. Grothar:
GFS at 216 hours. I don't trust anything over 215.



In years or hours?
One time at band camp.....Oh, nevermind
1753. barbamz
Some more world weather news as the Atlantic is still quiet hurricanewise. I'll take those news to my blog as soon as something serious will show up in the Atl.

EuroNews "No comment"-video about flooding in Mongolia:

Husbandry impeded by flooding in North China
08/08 09:29 CET


Siberian wildfires raging farther north than usual
By Nicole Mortillaro Global News, August 8

TORONTO – In 2012, Siberia experienced one of its worst wildfire seasons in recent history. It looks like 2013 might be heading in the same direction.

A blocking high – a weather pattern that blocks the jet stream from bringing rain-bearing weather systems – has settled over the area, leading to a heat wave. The northern city of Norilsk reached temperatures of 32 C in July. For comparison, the city’s normal high is 16 C.

The high temperatures are contributing to raging wildfires in the area. Because warm fuels burn more easily than cooler fuels, the heat wave has allowed older fires to continue to burn.

What’s more troubling is that the fires are burning farther north than they usually do. Siberian fires most often burn along the southern edge of the taiga forest, around 57 degree north latitude. These fires are burning near the 65 degree north latitude line.

Global temperatures are rising, but Russia has seen a dramatic rise. On average, since the mid-1970s, the global temperature has risen about .17 C per decade. In that same time, Russia has seen a rise in temperature of around .51 C.
Nothing.

1755. LargoFl
well regardless of any tropical development..looks like a lot of rain for south florida once again around 180 hours or so.
1756. Gearsts
Quoting 1724. hurricane23:
Updated EURO mslp for August big reversal has low pressures basin wide. It's all there for an active season. Should be out to public in a few weeks. Now lets see if we can actually get some bonified TC's in a few weeks.
Levi would love that, he and the euro have been saying different things the whole season. This would be a victory for forecasters and a slap for the computer models.


Would love more days like this one.
Quoting 1738. moonlightcowboy:



Adrian, it's starting to sound like we may be tracking two or three systems at the same time.
its ok the most I've track at the same time is 5 that was just starting to get a little rough
1759. LargoFl
Quoting 1754. FIUStormChaser:
Nothing.

might be homegrown kinda storm end of next week..we'll see
1760. Patrap
Sandy showed the Globe, a 1 in 700 years Hit, from the East to West, is a new reality.


Earth Atmo 2.0

Bring's it,..

Stay Thirsty my Friends.

Itsa coming.



1761. Gearsts
Quoting 1746. Tropicsweatherpr:


Here is todays NOAA August forecast.

Link
Oh yes thank you :D
Quoting 1758. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its ok the most I've track at the same time is 5 that was just starting to get a little rough



Keep, have you got a good feel for what you think the season might be like? The setup, etc?
Quoting 1713. Patrap:


I'm going to use this video, well parts of it to show how Humans react when faced with Calamity.

It's a terrible thing to watch your Town being destroyed before your very eyes.

Shock, disbelief, grief, sadness, depression, PTSD, all are a common thread post Calamity, regardless of what brings it.





It could also be useful for helping people take hurricanes more seriously. Some of those people laughing, smiling & carrying on like they did had no thought that it was about to get so BAD there! People like to think "It won't happen here, in OUR area" - always soemplace else. So, they wish-cast themselves into complacency & a false calm rather than preparing just in case. Some people downstream likely thought they could climb just a little higher on their building if it got too bad, but as we see, some buildings came floating in on the river.
Isn't that the clothing guy that got fired?
Quoting 1711. Gearsts:

Oh no please,Let me see the blobs first.
1767. ncstorm
WECT News..funnel cloud in Camp Lejeune today



BULLETIN
HURRICANE HENRIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013

...HENRIETTE STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 139.4W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013

THE EYE OF HENRIETTE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE PICTURES TODAY. THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A SINGLE LOWER
RESOLUTION AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS DURING THE PAST 12 TO 15
HOURS...SO IT HAS NOT BEEN POSSIBLE TO MONITOR THE INNER-CORE
STRUCTURAL CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TODAY. THE
LASTEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HENRIETTE SHOULD BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE SHEAR IS FORECST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. DUE
TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...THE UPDATED WIND SPEED FORECAST
IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST THEREAFTER.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OR 265 AT 9 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A NARROW RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE NHC TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE WILL CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BEFORE
09/0600 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 17.1N 139.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.9N 140.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.4N 142.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 15.1N 148.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 14.0N 154.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 13.0N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
1770. LargoFl
ok GFS says THIS is where it comes from.............
Quoting 1760. Patrap:
Sandy showed the Globe, a 1 in 700 years Hit, from the East to West, is a new reality.


Earth Atmo 2.0

Bring's it,..

Stay Thirsty my Friends.

Itsa coming.





I drank 31 of those when I was in Cozumel a couple of years back. That turned into a rough next day. 31 Beers and some high powered rum got my daughter here. The guy in Mexico said if you drink this rum then will have a child soon well he was right.

Quoting 1683. Grothar:


I posted it last night and this morning. As far as I know, there is no interest in it yet.



I almost wrote about this on Sunday but it seemed like it was gonna be such a weak, mostly cold core storm headed away from America..who'd care to read about it.

"HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER..."
Quoting 1754. FIUStormChaser:
Nothing.


Don't you got anything else to say other than nothing? Besides that nothing will soon come to an end.
1775. LargoFl
the bottom righthand corner..thats the one we watch when it gets under Cuba..
Gosh... Tropics are looking so quiet right now? Any hope for development in the next few days? Anyone?
Quoting 1774. RGVtropicalWx13:

Don't you got anything else to say other than nothing? Besides that nothing will soon come to an end.
That has to rank in one of the top 5 most idiotic posts I have ever read here..Sorry RGV
Quoting 1762. moonlightcowboy:



Keep, have you got a good feel for what you think the season might be like? The setup, etc?
I think once things open up they will come one right after another
fast and furious and it could very well have 3 systems at the same time tracking across too
who knows
I think more so that way over the fact NOAA still pretty much says same thing today
in there update above normal activity is still likely by 70 percent 30 percent chance it will not

chances remain high I guess
1779. LargoFl
Quoting 1754. FIUStormChaser:
Nothing.



?????
You say "nothing" because you are looking at the "nothing" that exists...rather than the "something" that could appear. The potential exists, as can be seen in the moisture wrapping around that low N of Cuba over the Bahamas, heading West like a tropical bullet. What is the potential if it picks up some strength in the next few days?
If it does, at that clip, how much time to prepare does that give anyone in its potential path?

I also have a slight bone to pick with the generalizations in the weather-prediction models up top on the page. We have not had many "tricky" storms in the past several years like have been seen many years ago. I recall storms that would "diddle around" in the GOM a bit, very unsettling & not easy to predict. That can make an impact on the "accuracy" of prediction models, giving a misperception on accuracy of predictions, which in turn can leave some peeps complacent if a storm is not predicted to go their way, by models that seem so accurate in recent years.
Quoting 1776. CaneHunter031472:
Gosh... Tropics are looking so quiet right now? Any hope for development in the next few days? Anyone?


Models are showing a Cape Verde hurricane and a tropical storm developing in the Caribbean/GOMEX within 10 days.
Quoting 1773. TropicalAnalystwx13:
"HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER..."
tight compact wind core
Quoting 1781. CybrTeddy:


Models are showing a Cape Verde hurricane and a tropical storm developing in the Caribbean/GOMEX within 10 days.


Thank you for the update. I am sure it will eventually get much more interesting.
Quoting 1778. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
I think once things open up they will come one right after another
fast and furious and it could very well have 3 systems at the same time tracking across too
who knows
I think more so that way over the fact NOAA still pretty much says same thing today
in there update above normal activity is still likely by 70 percent 30 percent chance it will not

chances remain high I guess


I understand that. Thanks. But, what about the B/A high and troughing? Earlier, it looked as if the high would be very stout, and we would see more westward moving systems, but now it's looking like we're getting some fairly deep troughing, and may see more fish. I was just wondering what you're thinking was as we've watched many a spin on the nightshift through the years. :)
1785. JLPR2
They keep emerging but are unable to hold together, now...
When they start to do so, watch out!

1786. barbamz
My bad! As the heat wave has receded in Germany I totally forgot to check out our neighbours to the East:

Temperature records broken in Austria and Hungary
AP / August 8, 2013

VIENNA (AP) - Temperatures have hit all-time highs in Austria and neighboring Hungary as a stubborn heat wave nears the end of its second week.

Thursday's 40.5 degrees Celsius (105 degrees Fahrenheit Thursday eclipsed the previous record of 39.9 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) set just five days before.

In Hungary, temperatures were fractionally lower at 40 C Thursday. Officials there have issued a heat warning, while some government ministries have relaxed dress codes. For men, that means ties and jackets can be left at home. For women, pantyhose is optional.

Croatia sent two water-dropping planes to Bosnia earlier in the week to help battle wildfires set off by drought and sweltering heat that threatened several villages. A Russian aircraft was dispatched to fight blazes in Serbia.

Temperatures also nearly broke records in Poland.



Source ORF (Public television in Austria; they and ZAMG - the Austrian weather service - say that they still need some hours to confirm the new record).
Quoting 1776. CaneHunter031472:
Gosh... Tropics are looking so quiet right now? Any hope for development in the next few days? Anyone?


I'd say the GOM is disorganzied but not totally clear.
More importantly, IMO, is the low heading towards the Florida Straits. It is currently nothing, but is wrapping up moisture, which to me signals a "desire" to build into something more. It has quite a whirl to it already, so if it does, it could do so rather "quickly". -- All dependent on shear & other conditions.
NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center

Calling all tweeters! Got questions about hurricane forecasting and preparedness? Join us on August 13th for a Tweet Chat with NHC Director Dr. Rick Knabb and senior hurricane specialist Daniel Brown. Just ahead of the peak of the season (mid-August through late October), they'll answer your questions about the tracking and forecasting of these potentially damaging storms and how best to be prepared.





Here is the link for details:
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20130808 _nhc_tweetchat.html
With the SAL gone, sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are rapidly rising again.

Wishing we would get some rain here soon in Southwest Louisiana...Good afternoon all:))
Quoting 1777. PalmBeachWeather:
That has to rank in one of the top 5 most idiotic posts I have ever read here..Sorry RGV

It probably came out wrong but what I meant to say is that posting a graphic with the wording"nothing" sounds wrong to me.
That plot of the Central Atlantic blob I posted there is two days old.. The models kept calling it that way. Interesting to see it happening this much farther south than expected & it has more a southwest movement than all the models anticipated. On RGB loop zoomed in, big outflow boundary racing in front of it as it travels down the front. It's collapsing in the heat of the day.
1793. Patrap
Quoting 1775. LargoFl:
the bottom righthand corner..thats the one we watch when it gets under Cuba..


I know I'm sounding like a grump, probably - lol - but I think a distant storm is less trouble at times than the one that pops up suddenly close to the coast, brews & walks in with a wallop that nobody expected or had time to prepare for -- nor could they, if developing winds & tides prevented them from doing anything about it in time.
Sundown over West Africa

Quoting 1791. RGVtropicalWx13:

It probably came out wrong but what I meant to say is that posting a graphic with the wording"nothing" sounds wrong to me.
That's cool RGV....We all do it..
Quoting 1785. JLPR2:
They keep emerging but are unable to hold together, now...
When they start to do so, watch out!



If this one holds together it could develop in a hurry and it should emerge by tomorrow
Quoting 1792. Skyepony:
It's collapsing in the heat of the day.


Sounds familiar...
Quoting 1796. PalmBeachWeather:
That's cool RGV....We all do it..

Yep.


12Z GFS T-384

Looks like we'll have a fish storm to track in a few days
Quoting 1780. WalkingInTheSun:


?????
You say "nothing" because you are looking at the "nothing" that exists...rather than the "something" that could appear. The potential exists, as can be seen in the moisture wrapping around that low N of Cuba over the Bahamas, heading West like a tropical bullet. What is the potential if it picks up some strength in the next few days?
If it does, at that clip, how much time to prepare does that give anyone in its potential path?

I also have a slight bone to pick with the generalizations in the weather-prediction models up top on the page. We have not had many "tricky" storms in the past several years like have been seen many years ago. I recall storms that would "diddle around" in the GOM a bit, very unsettling & not easy to predict. That can make an impact on the "accuracy" of prediction models, giving a misperception on accuracy of predictions, which in turn can leave some peeps complacent if a storm is not predicted to go their way, by models that seem so accurate in recent years.


You are reading too deep into my previous post, I stated "Nothing" meaning at the current moment of "time" their is nothing brewing or organizing in the tropics, i did not discount the idea of a system forming in any amount of time in the future, even in the short term period. At the current time, as indicated by the National Hurricane Center's outlook and discussion, nothing is organizing or brewing in the tropics, in the future, however it will obviously change.

Quoting 1774. RGVtropicalWx13:

Don't you got anything else to say other than nothing? Besides that nothing will soon come to an end.


It will come to end, of course, it is august after all. But with nothing occurring at the moment, i have nothing on-topic to post on the blog.

Quoting 1785. JLPR2:
They keep emerging but are unable to hold together, now...
When they start to do so, watch out!



Well thats something.
Link


still a very strong ridge forecasted by GFS for next few weeks. This may be the year who knows.
SST anomalies increasing in the MDR.

1804. nigel20
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
With the SAL gone, sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are rapidly rising again.


Hi Cody! It seems as if the SST's will be above average, just in time for the peak of the hurricane season.
Total ASCAT DOOM...land is water, water is land! That was the GOM, Yucatan & Cuba..
Little blob headed to the EPAC
1807. ncstorm
how you remove the alerts from your view..I hit X and it still keeps popping up..

The National Weather Service in Wilmington NC has issued a

* Flood Advisory for...

northeastern Brunswick County in southeast North Carolina
northwestern New Hanover County in southeast North Carolina
southern Pender County in southeast North Carolina

* until 645 PM EDT

* at 455 PM EDT National Weather Service radar indicated an area of
slow moving showers and thunderstorms along Highway 421.

* Locations in the advisory include but are not limited to Castle
Hayne... Rocky Point... and Highway 421 near the New Hanover and
Pender County border.

Radar has estimated around 2 inches of rain had fallen over northern
Brunswick... northwestern New Hanover and south central Pender
counties in the last 2 hours. These storms will continue to slowly
move east but another inch or 2 of rain will be possible during the
next hour.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Heavy rainfall can cause flooding... especially in areas susceptible
to flooding due to poor drainage. Poor drainage areas include
locations near streams and creeks... ditches... retention ponds... and
low spots along roadways. Keep a safe distance from streams... creeks
and ditches. Do not drive through flooded areas... your vehicle may
stall leaving you stranded.


Please report any flooding to the National Weather Service in
Wilmington NC... toll free at 800-697-3901... when you can do so
safely.

Lat... Lon 3436 7807 3449 7785 3433 7790 3426 7803


Iii
Quoting 1804. nigel20:

Hi Cody! It seems as if the SST's will be above average, just in time for the peak of the hurricane season.


Just need light winds aloft to complete the necessary formula.
Quoting 1786. barbamz:
My bad! As the heat wave has receded in Germany I totally forgot to check out our neighbours to the East:

Temperature records broken in Austria and Hungary
AP / August 8, 2013

VIENNA (AP) — Temperatures have hit all-time highs in Austria and neighboring Hungary as a stubborn heat wave nears the end of its second week.

Thursday’s 40.5 degrees Celsius (105 degrees Fahrenheit Thursday eclipsed the previous record of 39.9 degrees Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) set just five days before.

In Hungary, temperatures were fractionally lower at 40 C Thursday. Officials there have issued a heat warning, while some government ministries have relaxed dress codes. For men, that means ties and jackets can be left at home. For women, pantyhose is optional.

Croatia sent two water-dropping planes to Bosnia earlier in the week to help battle wildfires set off by drought and sweltering heat that threatened several villages. A Russian aircraft was dispatched to fight blazes in Serbia.

Temperatures also nearly broke records in Poland.


http://orf.at/static/images/site/news/20130832/we tter_hitzerekord_grafik_a_o.4515149.png
Source ORF (Public television in Austria; they and ZAMG - the Austrian weather service - say that they still need some hours to confirm the new record).


barbamz - happy to hear you've finally gotten some relief from the heat. But 105F? Whew. And I guess A/C is in short supply there as well? That's hotter than here, and I'm practically melting when I go outside.

And OMG - pantyhose in 100-degree weather? I wonder what the temperature cutoff is where it reverts back! One of the best things when I moved to the Gulf from New England was the relaxation of my company's dress code; I was thrilled when my female co-workers told me nylons were not required. (In fact they looked at me quite strangely when I showed up on my first day there, as no one in their right minds in Louisiana would wear nylons in the summertime.)
Quoting 1736. DonnieBwkGA:


All known systems reaching tropical storm strength received names from 1950 on. In the public advisories that means from 40 mph on up. The standard for naming tropical cyclones hasn't changed.

Except that subtropical storms are now named since 2003. That is different.


Thanks for that information DonnieBwkGA !
big high in the northeast 150 hours.
.FYI...I'm sure many of you are familiar with our friend -Indian River Guy_...He has not been here for a while...He is our local hero. His name is Marty, He is AKA "Indian River Keeper" on the treasure coast...We have a local disaster here with the discharge from Lake Okeechobee. The estuary is a total mess with the algae bloom....Marty is working is butt off trying to stop the problem in Stuart Florida....A massive fish-kill is a possibility.... Marty is looking for a fix before it gets worse....This beautiful area is getting ruined...No swimming or wading already....Marty is appearing on the local media pleading for help for the Indian River Lagoon.... 4 billions of gallons of water is released each day from Lake Okeechobee each day because of the fear the dykes of the lake breaching.... I pray Marty can make the difference.... Please give Marty help from a prayer or whatever we can do...He is the best
Well our little miniblob in the Caribbean went poof didn't it?
I'll shift my attention farther north to that ball of weakening convection pulling off of that front. I don't know what its in for...seems to be an outflow boundry on the SW side.
TD 11 W could become a big typhoon for the Philippines and China in the next five days. Structure is amazing with convection somewhat lacking on the northeastern quadrant. Should intensify near Dmax.
1816. nigel20
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Just need light winds aloft to complete the necessary formula.

Yeah, tropical activity in the Atlantic should pick up by mid to late August.
Adding to my last comment, consider this scenario.
Imagine a trough of low pressure casually develops close to shore in say the GOM. Conditions right, it could blow up fast into a tropical storm, then a hurricane, not allowing time to put up plywood, etc. or do much travel to get out before flying debri & its unpredictability stops people from moving much.

So, what if they stay in becuse it is expected to either A) not build much or B) come ashore soon so as to not develop. Somehow, it picks C) - stay, brew, get bigger. In that time, it rains ashore a lot, maybe coupled with a frontal boundary sagging South. Then, the water has no place to go - lots of rainwater, plus storm surge building up. BAD, dangerous scenario in low-lying coastal areas around the GOM! The normal hurr. flooding compounded by more rain than expected & a longer period of time of rivers & streams being blocked by tidal surge as the storm sits or moving very slowly or erratically.

Now, this is not common, so almost NOBODY thought it would actually happen. Therefore, almost nobody planned for it. Therefore, lots of people DIE, when they get caught between the winds, the rains, the tides, and not able to evacuate in a timely manner. The "perfect storm" - Southern style. It is not impossible. We simply are playing a sort of "Russian Roulette" by pretending it will not happen, year after year....until what, someday when it does happen?

(added) -- Okay, seeing the scenario, I must also add this, due to recent movie madness here. With the rising floodwaters, come the killer gators, hungry because all the big snakes ate their normal food. So, the big snakes & the gators are all out of food - competition & depletion -- and start pigging out on people caught unevacuated in the rising waters. Sounds like a movie that could be said to be "based on a true story" someday, lol. Bwhaahaha -- eeps! ;)
not good at all! I am talking about the high
Obnoxious orange bar is obnoxious.
1820. Grothar
Quoting 1734. nigel20:

:) Hi Grothar! How have you been? Is it still wet in your neck of the woods?


Good Afternoon, Nigel. Very nice day here today.
Quoting 1819. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Obnoxious orange bar is obnoxious.


Im under a Flash Flood Watch so I know what you mean
1822. ncstorm
Quoting 1819. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Obnoxious orange bar is obnoxious.


Can you imagine if a hurricane is threatening..will it list every alert individually, if so, I wont be able to see the comments..
1823. barbamz
With some flooding news from inside the African wave train (may be relevant for you guys in the US later) a good night from Germany!

Kenya: Hotels Submerged in Baringo Floods
By Joel Iregi, 7 August 2013
More than Seven Tourist hotels have been submerged by floods after Lake Baringo burst its banks. Hundreds of tourists who were visiting have been relocated to avoid disasters. William Kimosop from KWS says the situation is worsening as the rains intensify.

Uganda: Floods Displace Over 6000 in Amuru
By Tony Langalanga and Jackon Kitara, 8 August 2013
Over 6000 people have been left homeless in the northern district of Amuru after Unyama stream burst its bank.

Atiak LC3 Chairman, John Bosco, said Elegu was the most affected village. The floods were caused by a heavy down pour that hit the area on Wednesday affecting several families.

The stream, which connects to River Nile is located seven kilometers away from Elegu border post along Atiak-Numule-Juba road.

"The floods washed away houses and latrines living many people stranded. Gardens were washed away and others submerged in water," Ocan said.

According to Ocan, over 3,000 people lost property in the floods.
Quoting 1822. ncstorm:


Can you imagine if a hurricane is threatening..will it list every alert individually, if so, I wont be able to see the comments..


Wait - if there's more than one, what happens? Does it add to the thickness of the bar, or add a bar?
1825. Grothar
Quoting 1772. Skyepony:


I almost wrote about this on Sunday but it seemed like it was gonna be such a weak, mostly cold core storm headed away from America..who'd care to read about it.



I would, I read everything.



with the current SST a track like this could be devistating.
1827. Patrap
Seems the easterly flow has slowed considerably. And, the high-amplitude twave just west of the Verdes is creating some good vorticity at about 13n,35w although it's embedded in the monsoonal trough. Appears even, that the twave is so strong it's actually caused a noticeable westerly shift in the flow nearer the trades. Of course, there's plenty dry air out there and shearing too. I guess we just a bonafide lull, and we're just gonna have to wait until conditions improve for that match to ignite! ;)



1829. Patrap
1830. nigel20
Quoting Grothar:


Good Afternoon, Nigel. Very nice day here today.

We are currently having light to moderate showers along the northern coast of the island...it seems as if we'll be getting a lot more rain in the coming days as well.
Quoting 1807. ncstorm:
how you remove the alerts from your view..I hit X and it still keeps popping up..



Yup, darn good question. I'd prefer that to go away too.

Obnoxious orange bar is obnoxious.


have yet to see a status bar for alerts. You can always unpin it so that it stays on the top of the page and not scroll.
Quoting 1819. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Obnoxious orange bar is obnoxious.


If you click on the magnifying glass on the upper left you can change your location to a town in another country. The bar will remain but turn gray and will not issue any alerts. Someone in the help blog suggested a town in Nigeria and I changed my location to there.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning


Statement as of 5:13 PM EDT on August 08, 2013



The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Fairfield County in southern Connecticut...
western New Haven County in southern Connecticut...
Westchester County in southeast New York...
Putnam County in southeast New York...

* until 615 PM EDT...

* at 508 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a
severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess
of 60 mph. This storm was located near Yorktown Heights... or near
Mahopac... and moving northeast at 20 mph.

* Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to
Carmel... Brewster... Lake Carmel... Danbury... Bethel... Sherman...
Newtown and Southbury

This storm has a history of producing widespread wind damage across
portions of the Hudson Valley. Seek shelter now inside a sturdy
structure and stay away from windows!

Lat... Lon 4166 7349 4163 7349 4150 7343 4152 7339
4149 7337 4148 7333 4150 7333 4151 7331
4152 7316 4149 7312 4119 7380 4134 7394
4152 7371 4153 7353 4166 7352 4167 7351
time... Mot... loc 2113z 235deg 19kt 4132 7376
The cloud pattern associated with Henriette has become better organized over the past several hours. Core convection has weakened slightly though. Solid Category 2.

Nam 42 hours corrected with the GOM blob/moisture. Ends up breaking up with some of the energy going into Mexico and some into Texas.
1837. Walshy
Just what I don't need here in western NC..

Special Statement
Statement as of 5:15 PM EDT on August 08, 2013

... Storms producing heavy rain this evening...

Showers and thunderstorms will move across the area this evening.
A few of the stronger storms will produce rainfall rates of 3 to
4 inches per hour.
Most of these strong storms are in an area for
about 30 to 45 minutes before moving to the northeast. Never the
less... heavy rain will reduce visibilities to near zero and may
lead to ponding of water on roadways. Exercise caution then
traveling this evening.
Had a few hot days in Cayman this week , 109*F with heat index.Cloudy cover this afternoon is a welcome break , as small as it is...

Quoting 1836. Sfloridacat5:
Nam 88 hours with the GOM blob/moisture. Ends up breaking up with some of the energy going into Mexico and some into Texas.


NAM doesnt even go out to hour 88.
1840. barbamz
Quoting 1809. LAbonbon:

And OMG - pantyhose in 100-degree weather? I wonder what the temperature cutoff is where it reverts back! One of the best things when I moved to the Gulf from New England was the relaxation of my company's dress code; I was thrilled when my female co-workers told me nylons were not required. (In fact they looked at me quite strangely when I showed up on my first day there, as no one in their right minds in Louisiana would wear nylons in the summertime.)


Well, LAbonbon, you won't have seen me wearing any nylons earlier during the heat weave, even in office (but even my main office isn't that official, thankfully). Most of my collegues wear casual clothes as I do. And I chose to stay in my home office during those days (as my main work office is under a roof and very hot. My sister in the University of Frankfurt even got 89,6F = 32C in her office!), where dress code is much relaxed :)
Quoting 1839. SuperStorm093:


NAM doesnt even go out to hour 88.


Yeah, I caught that and corrected.
that flare up near Hispaniola, I wonder if that is what Accuweather has been saying could develop in a few days ?
Quoting 1793. Patrap:

Come on Humberto 2.0
HURRICANE HENRIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082013
200 PM PDT THU AUG 08 2013

THE EYE OF HENRIETTE HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN GEOSTATIONARY
SATELLITE PICTURES TODAY. THERE HAS ONLY BEEN A SINGLE LOWER
RESOLUTION AMSU MICROWAVE OVERPASS DURING THE PAST 12 TO 15
HOURS...SO IT HAS NOT BEEN POSSIBLE TO MONITOR THE INNER-CORE
STRUCTURAL CHANGES DURING THE PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION TODAY. THE
LASTEST DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...HENRIETTE SHOULD BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR
MASS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE SHEAR IS FORECST TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL WEAKENING. DUE
TO THE HIGHER INITIAL INTENSITY...THE UPDATED WIND SPEED FORECAST
IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF
DAYS...BUT IS CLOSE TO THE EARLIER FORECAST THEREAFTER.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OR 265 AT 9 KT. THE TRACK
FORECAST REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. HENRIETTE IS EXPECTED TO TURN
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS A NARROW RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME. THE NHC TRACK HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO BE IN
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

BASED ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...HENRIETTE WILL CROSS 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY BEFORE
09/0600 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 17.1N 139.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 16.9N 140.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 16.4N 142.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 15.8N 145.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 15.1N 148.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 14.0N 154.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 13.0N 160.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
"No pouches will be tracked on Friday 9 August. The federal budget sequestration is being applied at the Naval Postgraduate School as furloughs every Friday. The last Furlough Friday will be next week, 16 August. Employees are forbidden to work, under threat of termination." ~ NPS
Quoting 1835. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The cloud pattern associated with Henriette has become better organized over the past several hours. Core convection has weakened slightly though. Solid Category 2.



Very pretty, well-developed storm. Isn't that what everyone's looking for?
Quoting 1812. PalmBeachWeather:
.FYI...I'm sure many of you are familiar with our friend -Indian River Guy_...He has not been here for a while...He is our local hero. His name is Marty, He is AKA "Indian River Keeper" on the treasure coast...We have a local disaster here with the discharge from Lake Okeechobee. The estuary is a total mess with the algae bloom....Marty is working is butt off trying to stop the problem in Stuart Florida....A massive fish-kill is a possibility.... Marty is looking for a fix before it gets worse....This beautiful area is getting ruined...No swimming or wading already....Marty is appearing on the local media pleading for help for the Indian River Lagoon.... 4 billions of gallons of water is released each day from Lake Okeechobee each day because of the fear the dykes of the lake breaching.... I pray Marty can make the difference.... Please give Marty help from a prayer or whatever we can do...He is the best


Thanks for posting this, PBW ---- IRG is a hero in my book, for his valiant efforts on behalf of Florida's marine environment. But we wouldn't know about this if you hadn't posted!
Henriette will cross the 140W into the CPHC area of responsibility by tonight. NHC will release its final advisory at 11 pm EDT.

Quoting 1812. PalmBeachWeather:
.FYI...I'm sure many of you are familiar with our friend -Indian River Guy_...He has not been here for a while...He is our local hero. His name is Marty, He is AKA "Indian River Keeper" on the treasure coast...We have a local disaster here with the discharge from Lake Okeechobee. The estuary is a total mess with the algae bloom....Marty is working is butt off trying to stop the problem in Stuart Florida....A massive fish-kill is a possibility.... Marty is looking for a fix before it gets worse....This beautiful area is getting ruined...No swimming or wading already....Marty is appearing on the local media pleading for help for the Indian River Lagoon.... 4 billions of gallons of water is released each day from Lake Okeechobee each day because of the fear the dykes of the lake breaching.... I pray Marty can make the difference.... Please give Marty help from a prayer or whatever we can do...He is the best
It is unfortunately a necessary evil.. the lake went over 16 ft today despite all efforts releasing water both east and west.. the level is still rising.. I feel bad for the environment, the fish, and other wildife.. The rich peoples' backyard views have been compromised and they can cannot do any kayaking, wake boarding, or jet skiing.. It is horrible but if the the lake was to get to 17 or 18 ft the dike could fail and 1000s of people could lose their homes and lives would be in danger. I think in this case human life trumps lifestlye and the adverse environmental side effects on the lagoon.


http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xreposito ry/sfwmd_repository_pdf/lokstg.pdf



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurr icane
Quoting 1812. PalmBeachWeather:
.FYI...I'm sure many of you are familiar with our friend -Indian River Guy_...He has not been here for a while...He is our local hero. His name is Marty, He is AKA "Indian River Keeper" on the treasure coast...We have a local disaster here with the discharge from Lake Okeechobee. The estuary is a total mess with the algae bloom....Marty is working is butt off trying to stop the problem in Stuart Florida....A massive fish-kill is a possibility.... Marty is looking for a fix before it gets worse....This beautiful area is getting ruined...No swimming or wading already....Marty is appearing on the local media pleading for help for the Indian River Lagoon.... 4 billions of gallons of water is released each day from Lake Okeechobee each day because of the fear the dykes of the lake breaching.... I pray Marty can make the difference.... Please give Marty help from a prayer or whatever we can do...He is the best
I hate to sound like a broken record. Things are getting worse this hour. The blue-green algae is over taking our waterways here..... Public safety is a big issue right now..But in the long run marine life are at stake... Screw the people that are worried about property values...We now have a "MAJOR" problem...
Quoting 1812. PalmBeachWeather:
.FYI...I'm sure many of you are familiar with our friend -Indian River Guy_...He has not been here for a while...He is our local hero. His name is Marty, He is AKA "Indian River Keeper" on the treasure coast...We have a local disaster here with the discharge from Lake Okeechobee. The estuary is a total mess with the algae bloom....Marty is working is butt off trying to stop the problem in Stuart Florida....A massive fish-kill is a possibility.... Marty is looking for a fix before it gets worse....This beautiful area is getting ruined...No swimming or wading already....Marty is appearing on the local media pleading for help for the Indian River Lagoon.... 4 billions of gallons of water is released each day from Lake Okeechobee each day because of the fear the dykes of the lake breaching.... I pray Marty can make the difference.... Please give Marty help from a prayer or whatever we can do...He is the best


Hey PBW, thanks for the post. Any recommended links? His last entry on his FB page was 2 days ago.
1853. java162



18z gfs running..... out to 24hrs
Flash Flood Emergency in PA:

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
456 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2013

PAC021-111-082330-
/O.CON.KCTP.FF.W.0024.000000T0000Z-130808T2330Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
CAMBRIA PA-SOMERSET PA-
456 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 730 PM EDT FOR
NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET AND SOUTHWESTERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES...

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSTOWN AND SURROUNDING
AREAS...

AT 451 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTHEASTERN SOMERSET AND
SOUTHWESTERN CAMBRIA COUNTIES.

WATER RESCUES...FLOODING OF HOMES...AND DEEP FLOWING WATER OVER
ROADWAYS IN AND NEAR JOHNSTOWN HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WHICH WILL INCREASE THE
FLOODING SEVERITY.

THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING EVENT.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO WINDBER...
BELMONT...ELIM...JOHNSTOWN AND WESTMONT.
The Indian River Lagoon: An estuary in distress




"In spring 2011, an algal "superbloom" occurred in the portion of the system known as Banana River Lagoon and eventually spread into northern Indian River Lagoon and farther north into the Mosquito Lagoon (see map). The immense bloom covered approximately 130,000 acres and led to a noticeable reduction in water quality. Concurrently, a lesser bloom extended from just north of Melbourne south to the Vero Beach-Fort Pierce area (see map).

Approximately 47,000 acres of seagrasses were lost, a reduction of about 60 percent. These blooms and the resulting seagrass decline far exceeded any documented or remembered events in terms of geographic scale, bloom intensity and duration.

The magnitude of the seagrass loss is alarming because seagrass is:

An indicator of the lagoon's health
A food source for manatees
A nursery, refuge and a place of forage for a variety of fish and other marine life

In economic terms, the 2011 seagrass loss represents a potential reduction of $235 million to $470 million in commercial and recreational fisheries value in 2012."
Quoting 1827. Patrap:


Say, Patrap, oh map-maestro, you got anything on the winds & air currents at various levels for that low over the Bahamas?
Quoting 1812. PalmBeachWeather:
.FYI...I'm sure many of you are familiar with our friend -Indian River Guy_...He has not been here for a while...He is our local hero. His name is Marty, He is AKA "Indian River Keeper" on the treasure coast...We have a local disaster here with the discharge from Lake Okeechobee. The estuary is a total mess with the algae bloom....Marty is working is butt off trying to stop the problem in Stuart Florida....A massive fish-kill is a possibility.... Marty is looking for a fix before it gets worse....This beautiful area is getting ruined...No swimming or wading already....Marty is appearing on the local media pleading for help for the Indian River Lagoon.... 4 billions of gallons of water is released each day from Lake Okeechobee each day because of the fear the dykes of the lake breaching.... I pray Marty can make the difference.... Please give Marty help from a prayer or whatever we can do...He is the best
It makes me cry..What do we do now.........Is is the big government authorities involved now...I don't know....
Quoting 1851. PalmBeachWeather:
I hate to sound like a broken record. Things are getting worse this hour. The blue-green algae is over taking our waterways here..... Public safety is a big issue right now..But in the long run marine life are at stake... Screw the people that are worried about property values...We now have a "MAJOR" problem...


I posted this last night. A photo I got from a friend at WINK-TV. Good aerial photo of the release.

Link
Quoting 1852. mikatnight:


Hey PBW, thanks for the post. Any recommended links? His last entry on his FB page was 2 days ago.
mik......Hell if I know...Indian River Guy is our contact...I will do what I can... Hope Dex is ok
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LABUYO
5:00 AM PhST August 9 2013
================================================= ==

The Low Pressure Area outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility has developed into a Tropical Depression and was named "LABUYO"

At 4:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Labuyo (1004 hPa) located at 12.2N 136.2E or 1150 km east of Catarman, Northern Samar has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 5 knots.

Additional Information
==========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

Tropical Depression "LABUYO" is too far to directly affect any part of the country. However, the Low Pressure Area is now in the vicinity of Cuyo, Palawan (11.4°N, 121.4°E) embedded along the Intertropical Convergence Zone will bring rainshowers and thunderstorm over southern Luzon, Visayas and northern Mindanao.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 AM today.
Quoting 1850. TopOfTheLakeFL:
It is unfortunately a necessary evil.. the lake went over 16 ft today despites all efforts releasing water both east and west.. the level is still rising.. I feel bad for the environment, the fish, and other wildife.. The rich peoples' backyard views have been compromised and they can cannot do any kayaking, wake boarding, or jet skiing.. It is horrible but if the the lake was to get to 17 or 18 ft the dike could fail and 1000s of people could lose their homes and lives would be in danger. I think in this case human life trumps lifestlye and the adverse side environmental effects on the lagoon.


But...this would not be a neccessary evil if the state would do the right thing regarding Big Sugar and all of the land held by these government supported companies. The state has had chances but continues to lease state owned land, which could be used to restore part of the natural flow of water into the everglades. Add to that all of the harmful chemicals from fertilizers used in this region, that are now in the lake and subsequently being released into the estuaries, and you have a natural disaster that does NOT need to happen. Fact that state has recently agreed to 30 year leases rather than the standard 2 year lease means that this will continue to be a problem, possibly permanent, long into the future. It is a criminal, crying shame!
12z Experimental FIM-8:



1865. java162
in 3 days.... something seems to be brewing near the African coast!

I think IndianRiverGuy is live on Newschannel 5 talking about the algae disaster.
Hmmmmmmm....

2012 was a great yr for fishing seatrout but 2013 where are they? e.cen.florida
2013 Bottlenose Dolphin Unusual Mortality Event in Florida



"Under the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 (as amended), an Unusual Mortality Event (UME) has been declared for bottlenose dolphins in the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) System along the east coast of Florida from January 2013 through the present. Elevated strandings of bottlenose dolphins have occurred in the northern and central Indian River Lagoon system in Brevard County.

Current bottlenose dolphin strandings are almost three times the historical average for the Indian River Lagoon. All age classes of bottlenose dolphins are involved, but the majority of animals are older adults and a few juveniles.

The most significant and unifying gross necropsy finding is emaciation. As part of the UME investigation process, an independent team of scientists (Investigative Team) is being assembled to coordinate with the Working Group on Marine Mammal Unusual Mortality Events to review the data collected and to determine the next steps.

In addition to the increased dolphin strandings, a separate UME was declared by NOAA Fisheries in April 2013 for elevated manatee mortalities in the Brevard County. From July 25, 2012 to June 14, 2013, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWCC) has documented 250 manatee deaths in Brevard County. A cause for these mortalities has not been determined and the ongoing investigation is being led by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and FWCC."
Quoting 1849. Civicane49:
Henriette will cross the 140W into the CPHC area of responsibility by tonight. NHC will release its final advisory at 11 pm EDT.

Finally a hurricane into the cphc I believe the last one was Felicia or guillermo.
1871. SLU
Worst-than-2004-type pattern predicted by the Brazilian model for ASO in its latest forecast.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting 1863. GTstormChaserCaleb:
12z Experimental FIM-8:





Thats the 850 winds, so really on the 10m winds the storm is only a 50-60mph storm.
1873. pottery
Quoting HoraceDebussyJones:


But...this would not be a neccessary evil if the state would do the right thing regarding Big Sugar and all of the land held by these government supported companies. The state has had chances but continues to lease state owned land, which could be used to restore part of the natural flow of water into the everglades. Add to that all of the harmful chemicals from fertilizers used in this region, that are now in the lake and subsequently being released into the estuaries, and you have a natural disaster that does NOT need to happen. Fact that state has recently agreed to 30 year leases rather than the standard 2 year lease means that this will continue to be a problem, possibly permanent, long into the future. It is a criminal, crying shame!

Until ''the people'' make the right noises in the right places (very hard to do, because newspapers etc are beholden to Big Agro Advertising $$$), the problem is not going to be dealt with in a Sensitive way by the Authorities.

Current trends with Facebook and Twitter work very well, to get facts and figures out to the population.

Politicians WILL respond to public pressure, but only when this pressure becomes truly public.
They hate to be embarrassed, and will act when it is clear to them that votes are dancing.....
1874. guygee
For today's inspirational reading:
Tomgram: Michael Klare, How to Fry a Planet

The article discusses ongoing changes to BAU (Business As Usual) that do not reduce anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions.
1875. yoboi
Quoting 1809. LAbonbon:


barbamz - happy to hear you've finally gotten some relief from the heat. But 105F? Whew. And I guess A/C is in short supply there as well? That's hotter than here, and I'm practically melting when I go outside.

And OMG - pantyhose in 100-degree weather? I wonder what the temperature cutoff is where it reverts back! One of the best things when I moved to the Gulf from New England was the relaxation of my company's dress code; I was thrilled when my female co-workers told me nylons were not required. (In fact they looked at me quite strangely when I showed up on my first day there, as no one in their right minds in Louisiana would wear nylons in the summertime.)




How long have you lived in the south??????
Quoting java162:
in 3 days.... something seems to be brewing near the African coast!



Blue Green Algae



This is one tough organism. It can be found everywhere on the planet. They've even theorized it could be placed in warheads and fired at Venus to create another earth (Venus is CO2, BGA eats it, makes oxygen, eventually creates rain, which eventually reaches the surface and viola! Earth2)

From Wikipedia:
Cyanobacteria are arguably the most successful group of microorganisms on earth. They are the most genetically diverse; they occupy a broad range of habitats across all latitudes, widespread in freshwater, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and they are found in the most extreme niches such as hot springs, salt works, and hypersaline bays. Photoautotrophic, oxygen-producing cyanobacteria created the conditions in the planet's early atmosphere that directed the evolution of aerobic metabolism and eukarotic photosynthesis. Cyanobacteria fulfill vital ecological functions in the world's oceans, being important contributors to global carbon and nitrogen budgets.
– Stewart and Falconer

It also grows in the cooling systems of nuclear reactors.
Quoting 1819. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Obnoxious orange bar is obnoxious.

My area, and much of Texas, has been under a Heat Advisory for the past week... I'm used to the Orange bar now.
Quoting 1871. SLU:
Worst-than-2004-type pattern predicted by the Brazilian model for ASO in its latest forecast.

Image and video hosting by TinyPic
It sure has been very 2004 ish in terms of local weather pattern.I'm waiting on a Jeanne Charley,Ivan and Frances at any moment..(J/K about the last part)
1880. pottery
Quoting washingtonian115:
It sure has been very 2004 ish in terms of local weather pattern.I'm waiting on a Jeanne Charley,Ivan and Frances at any moment..(J/K about the last part)

4-letter words (especially that one) are NOT encouraged on the blogs.......

:):))
Quoting 1860. PalmBeachWeather:
mik......Hell if I know...Indian River Guy is our contact...I will do what I can... Hope Dex is ok


Thanks. Dex is lying at my feet giving me the look to go outside. We just went outside an hour ago. It's too hot. Wait. Good boy. (sighs, rolls onto side)
1882. SLU
Quoting 1879. washingtonian115:
It sure has been very 2004 ish in terms of local weather pattern.I'm waiting on a Jeanne Charley,Ivan and Frances at any moment..(J/K about the last part)


lol

Well if we do get them it's going to be and exciting (scary) next two months.
1883. SLU
Quoting 1880. pottery:

4-letter words (especially that one) are NOT encouraged on the blogs.......

:):))


lol

That name still strikes fear in the hearts of many.
CMC sure likes to develop lows off the East Coast...



1885. java162


very broad low.. 108hrs...hasnt moved much
Quoting java162:


very broad low.. 108hrs...hasnt moved much


I can't see it bro.
1887. java162



second low emerges.... interesting to see what happens... very strong ridge of high pressurwe to its north
1888. JLPR2
Let's see what happens, GFS is showing the same low at the same place emerging around 138hrs...

Quoting 1862. HoraceDebussyJones:


But...this would not be a neccessary evil if the state would do the right thing regarding Big Sugar and all of the land held by these government supported companies. The state has had chances but continues to lease state owned land, which could be used to restore part of the natural flow of water into the everglades. Add to that all of the harmful chemicals from fertilizers used in this region, that are now in the lake and subsequently being released into the estuaries, and you have a natural disaster that does NOT need to happen. Fact that state has recently agreed to 30 year leases rather than the standard 2 year lease means that this will continue to be a problem, possibly permanent, long into the future. It is a criminal, crying shame!


I agree. And I think TOTL was callous in diminishing what are well documented damaging and life-threatening effects. It may be a necessary evil to protect lives and property since we've left ourselves no immediate alternative, but to make it sound like it's an inconvenience for rich folks is outlandish and wrongheaded.
I thought the state was opening up land to restore the flow of the everglades. Did that change with the latest Governor?
1891. JLPR2
No wonder the 12z developed it, look at what the 18z run shows...



Simply massive area of convection emerging from Africa.
From CWG..
Mid-Atlantic hurricanes, by the numbers
Of the 1,470 named storms impacting the continental U.S. since 1851, the mid-Atlantic has been visited by 270 of these, or 18 percent of the total. Statistically speaking, that’s an average of 1.7 landfalling storms per year.
However, our region can experience long stretches of inactivity. For instance, the seven-year period from 1917 to 1923 witnessed only two landfalling storms. Yet over a similar duration, from 2002 until 2009, we experienced 21 storms. The greatest number of storms in any year was seven, occurring in 2005.

Link
1893. Grothar
Quoting 1866. FIUStormChaser:
I think IndianRiverGuy is live on Newschannel 5 talking about the algae disaster.



The last thing Florida needs is more rain. I don't think many people on here are aware of how important the work Marty does in Florida. He is quite well known and works tirelessly. Between Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades, we are close to a critical situation and possible disaster.

what is that low in 24 hours with 1010 mb
Quoting 1869. moonlightcowboy:
2013 Bottlenose Dolphin Unusual Mortality Event in Florida



"Under the Marine Mammal Protection Act of 1972 (as amended), an Unusual Mortality Event (UME) has been declared for bottlenose dolphins in the Indian River Lagoon (IRL) System along the east coast of Florida from January 2013 through the present. Elevated strandings of bottlenose dolphins have occurred in the northern and central Indian River Lagoon system in Brevard County.

Current bottlenose dolphin strandings are almost three times the historical average for the Indian River Lagoon. All age classes of bottlenose dolphins are involved, but the majority of animals are older adults and a few juveniles.

The most significant and unifying gross necropsy finding is emaciation. As part of the UME investigation process, an independent team of scientists (Investigative Team) is being assembled to coordinate with the Working Group on Marine Mammal Unusual Mortality Events to review the data collected and to determine the next steps.

In addition to the increased dolphin strandings, a separate UME was declared by NOAA Fisheries in April 2013 for elevated manatee mortalities in the Brevard County. From July 25, 2012 to June 14, 2013, the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWCC) has documented 250 manatee deaths in Brevard County. A cause for these mortalities has not been determined and the ongoing investigation is being led by U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and FWCC."


There was a dead one in Bicentennial Park (Lantana) last weekend.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Obnoxious orange bar is obnoxious.

I've switched back to classic mode - just replace the "www" in the URL with "classic". I'm in Texas, its August, I know we're under a heat advisory and probably will be until the 1st of Sept. The bar isn't an alert - its like a barking dog following you around, irritating but providing no information
Quoting 1875. yoboi:




How long have you lived in the south??????


10 years
1898. flcanes
Quoting 1893. Grothar:



All Florida needs is more rain. I don't think many people on here are aware of how important the work Marty does in Florida. He is quite well known and works tirelessly. Between Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades, we are close to a critical situation and possible disaster.


I know. If we were to get another Isaac, Fay, or Debby most of South florida would be doomed.
At the same time, Didn't the GFS develop a cyclone and send it up tampa bay. That in and of itself is another disaster waiting to happen.
Quoting 1893. Grothar:



All Florida needs is more rain.



I'm confused, Gro. I thought the problem sounded like there had been too much water. Straighten me out, will ya? TIA
The pattern that is setting up...looks like yet again...would leave TX out of the picture. With a high over the 4 corners region...weak trough over the mid west...and the Bermuda high...looks like TX may not get one this year yet again...I could be wrong but its what im seeing.
If you're looking for something good to track for the next few days, keep an eye on 11W in the West-Pac. It's outflow pattern is excellent for such a young system:



And it is already building a solid core:



With favorable conditions in its path RI is a pretty good possibility, as JTWC has said. They forecast a powerful 120kt peak intensity through 5 days. If this path were to verify it would have a high end Cat 3 equivalent passing over the far northern Philippines within 3-4 days and a Cat 4 bearing down on Hong Kong in 5-6 days:

that tropical wave its big as hurricane sandy..my god!
1903. Grothar
Quoting 1899. moonlightcowboy:



I'm confused, Gro. I thought the problem sounded like there had been too much water. Straighten me out, will ya? TIA


First line was sarcasm. That is why I showed the image of more rain coming into Florida. My sarcasm isn't that good in the first hour after my nap. I promise I will get better as the night goes on. After I read it, I can see the confusion. I'll go and rephrase it. :)
1904. Grothar
Quoting 1898. flcanes:

I know. If we were to get another Isaac, Fay, or Debby most of South florida would be doomed.
At the same time, Didn't the GFS develop a cyclone and send it up tampa bay. That in and of itself is another disaster waiting to happen.


The GFS has been consistent with that for a while now.
Quoting 1903. Grothar:


First line was sarcasm. That is why I showed the image of more rain coming into Florida. My sarcasm isn't that good in the first hour after my nap. I promise I will get better as the night goes on. After I read it, I can see the confusion. I'll go and rephrase it. :)


ROTFL, ok, I understand now! I can be a tad slow sometimes. :)
Looks like GFS is buying what the FIM is selling, at least somewhat. (W Carib)
Sun is up in the WPAC

TD11

Quoting 1893. Grothar:



All Florida needs is more rain. I don't think many people on here are aware of how important the work Marty does in Florida. He is quite well known and works tirelessly. Between Lake Okeechobee and the Everglades, we are close to a critical situation and possible disaster.



What's the solution, Grothar? I've done work for the Fanjul's (big sugar), they're nice folks but they're a corporation. Corporations are robots designed to make money. They don't see anything else.
Quoting 1850. TopOfTheLakeFL:
It is unfortunately a necessary evil.. the lake went over 16 ft today despite all efforts releasing water both east and west.. the level is still rising.. I feel bad for the environment, the fish, and other wildife.. The rich peoples' backyard views have been compromised and they can cannot do any kayaking, wake boarding, or jet skiing.. It is horrible but if the the lake was to get to 17 or 18 ft the dike could fail and 1000s of people could lose their homes and lives would be in danger. I think in this case human life trumps lifestlye and the adverse environmental side effects on the lagoon.


http://www.sfwmd.gov/portal/page/portal/xreposito ry/sfwmd_repository_pdf/lokstg.pdf



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1928_Okeechobee_hurr icane


That's a rather biased way to look at it don't you think.. I could almost hear you sneer when you talked about rich people.. like they are the only ones affected. It affects everyone, poor people feed themselves from it. People not "rich" enough to live waterfront go play in the water. The value of all properties, lost jobs, lost income, BIG money lost, people getting sick.

The number one private employer in Martin County is the Indian River lagoon, and its tributary, the St. Lucie River. They are sending polluted neurotoxic cyanobacteria laden water out two unnatural man made communications endangering everyone in or near the water. Strong winds are not our friend right now.

And why are they dumping it? To protect life and limb south of the lake. I support this. I do not know anyone who does not, but, in order to protect them, we are put into danger from toxic bacteria on both sides of the State.

There is an alternative that endangers no one. We could flood the fields.. for every foot that goes into the EAA, the lake would drop a foot. Why is a sugar crop in a glutted sugar market more important than the safety and well being of the citizens. The State and ACOE are KNOWINGLY sending this poison into our waterways. The FDEP even signed a permit to allow sugar to dewater by backpumping nutrient polluted bacteria food into an ongoing blue/green algae bloom....while they were discharging to us. Floridian Don't Expect Protection. They protect a sugar crop instead of our citizens. Flood the fields, protect ALL the citizens.

I know, they know, and you probably suspect that they would be "sweetly" compensated for their lost crops, even in a glutted market. But they will fight it anyway, it re-establishes that people are more important than the corporate profits of sugar barons. They can't have THAT.

GFS, naturally, trending more north and weaker this run. Typical.
Gfs will show hurricane opal here!!
I see Indian River Guy "Marty" is watching....Thanks friend for all you do
hi yall :) im new to this blog but not to weather
1914. Grothar
Quoting 1905. moonlightcowboy:


ROTFL, ok, I understand now! :)


I guess I spent too much time in New York. See, there, if you like someone, you insult them. For instance, if you have a friend who is a lady, you compliment them like this. That's a nice dress, I didn't know that fabric stretched so much. Or, you have such nice blonde hair, why do you dye your roots gray.

With your guy friends, you say things like, When you were born, how bad did they slap you.

Like, GeoffWPB, Rookie, and pott do with me and I to them.
1915. java162


not sure what to make of these 2 as yet
Big hurricane coming to north gulf coast next week this not looking good !!
Quoting 1909. indianrivguy:


That's a rather biased way to look at it don't you think.. I could almost hear you sneer when you talked about rich people.. like they are the only ones affected. It affects everyone, poor people feed themselves from it. People not "rich" enough to live waterfront go play in the water. The value of all properties, lost jobs, lost income, BIG money lost, people getting sick.

The number one private employer in Martin County is the Indian River lagoon, and its tributary, the St. Lucie River. They are sending polluted neurotoxic cyanobacteria laden water out two unnatural man made communications endangering everyone in or near the water. Strong winds are not our friend right now.

And why are they dumping it? To protect life and limb south of the lake. I support this. I do not know anyone who does not, but, in order to protect them, we are put into danger from toxic bacteria on both sides of the State.

There is an alternative that endangers no one. We could flood the fields.. for every foot that goes into the EAA, the lake would drop a foot. Why is a sugar crop in a glutted sugar market more important than the safety and well being of the citizens. The State and ACOE are KNOWINGLY sending this poison into our waterways. The FDEP even signed a permit to allow sugar to dewater by backpumping nutrient polluted bacteria food into an ongoing blue/green algae bloom....while they were discharging to us. Floridian Don't Expect Protection. They protect a sugar crop instead of our citizens. Flood the fields, protect ALL the citizens.

I know, they know, and you probably suspect that they would be "sweetly" compensated for their lost crops, even in a glutted market. But they will fight it anyway, it re-establishes that people are more important than the corporate profits of sugar barons. They can't have THAT.



Even the news too? I noticed the piece you posted on your FB page from ch25 pretty much ignored it (the real problem). It's going to require a political solution?
1918. Grothar
Quoting 1908. mikatnight:


What's the solution, Grothar? I've done work for the Fanjul's (big sugar), they're nice folks but they're a corporation. Corporations are robots designed to make money. They don't see anything else.


I don't know, I'll leave that to Marty. I can't even figure out how to save my cactus plant.
Am i allowed to ask a weather question?
Quoting 1909. indianrivguy:


That's a rather biased way to look at it don't you think.. I could almost hear you sneer when you talked about rich people.. like they are the only ones affected. It affects everyone, poor people feed themselves from it. People not "rich" enough to live waterfront go play in the water. The value of all properties, lost jobs, lost income, BIG money lost, people getting sick.

The number one private employer in Martin County is the Indian River lagoon, and its tributary, the St. Lucie River. They are sending polluted neurotoxic cyanobacteria laden water out two unnatural man made communications endangering everyone in or near the water. Strong winds are not our friend right now.

And why are they dumping it? To protect life and limb south of the lake. I support this. I do not know anyone who does not, but, in order to protect them, we are put into danger from toxic bacteria on both sides of the State.

There is an alternative that endangers no one. We could flood the fields.. for every foot that goes into the EAA, the lake would drop a foot. Why is a sugar crop in a glutted sugar market more important than the safety and well being of the citizens. The State and ACOE are KNOWINGLY sending this poison into our waterways. The FDEP even signed a permit to allow sugar to dewater by backpumping nutrient polluted bacteria food into an ongoing blue/green algae bloom....while they were discharging to us. Floridian Don't Expect Protection. They protect a sugar crop instead of our citizens. Flood the fields, protect ALL the citizens.

I know, they know, and you probably suspect that they would be "sweetly" compensated for their lost crops, even in a glutted market. But they will fight it anyway, it re-establishes that people are more important than the corporate profits of sugar barons. They can't have THAT.



Marty-

Well stated. I am sorry I missed you on NewsChannel 5 as I just got in from work.

We are in a rough spot. It is only going to get rougher this season..and beyond.

Joe
The pattern that is setting up...looks like yet again...would leave TX out of the picture. With a high over the 4 corners region...weak trough over the mid west...and the Bermuda high...looks like TX may not get one this year yet again...I could be wrong but its what i'm seeing.
Quoting 1919. Socalmargie:
Am i allowed to ask a weather question?


How much money you got?
1923. Patrap
Quoting 1910. CybrTeddy:
GFS, naturally, trending more north and weaker this run. Typical.


I prefer the 00z and 12z runs as those have more data.

very strong hurricane will form with this anticycline and go north to florida where there is big trough!!!
and the GFS says good bye to the Florida storm, exactly why I said dont get excited. Camille, stop trying to scare people.
1927. Patrap
Quoting 1918. Grothar:


I don't know, I'll leave that to Marty. I can't even figure out how to save my cactus plant.


Remember, you can prick your finger, but...
in california we have santa anna winds which can reach 80mph and above, but very dry. is that what i can expect in a hurricane i just moved to the east coast
Quoting 1901. MAweatherboy1:
If you're looking for something good to track for the next few days, keep an eye on 11W in the West-Pac. It's outflow pattern is excellent for such a young system:



And it is already building a solid core:



With favorable conditions in its path RI is a pretty good possibility, as JTWC has said. They forecast a powerful 120kt peak intensity through 5 days. If this path were to verify it would have a high end Cat 3 equivalent passing over the far northern Philippines within 3-4 days and a Cat 4 bearing down on Hong Kong in 5-6 days:



I second that, TD 11W is likely the next big one.

Quoting 1909. indianrivguy:


They are sending polluted neurotoxic cyanobacteria laden water out two unnatural man made communications endangering everyone in or near the water. Strong winds are not our friend right now.

And why are they dumping it? To protect life and limb south of the lake. I support this. I do not know anyone who does not, but, in order to protect them, we are put into danger from toxic bacteria on both sides of the State.


Ok, some questions:

1. Is the neurotoxic cyanobacteria a by-product of sugar production? Or where is it coming from?

2. Winds a problem. Why, if it's water laden? Is it also an airborne bacteria?

3. I'm assuming the damn/dike is on the lake's south side? Hence the water release that ultimately ends up in the lagoon and tributaries.

4. Both sides of the lake? Toxic water is released on both sides of the lake then?

5. Other than flooding the fields, what are the other alternatives? Seems there's ample support/reason to flood the fields, but won't that eventually reach capacity and just transfer the problem to more areas as well?

TIA! :)


Oh, and MANY KUDOS for your tireless efforts! :)
1933. Patrap
wow! kind of a hostile blog i see :(
Quoting 1919. Socalmargie:
Am i allowed to ask a weather question?


What I do, scare you off? I was only kidding. Answers here only cost about 25 cents each.

Correct answers are rather pricy though.
A hurricane on the Gulf Coast eh? Well, I just pruned my citrus trees so they should be good!

weakness over florida here!!! who cares about the gfs this storm is going to go north here and not where it go so i just cancel this model run!!!!!!
Quoting 1935. Socalmargie:
wow! kind of a hostile blog i see :(


Welcome, Margie. I'm relatively new myself. Blog is usually pretty civil, so don't let that discourage you. What part of the E. Coast?
Can a MOD please ban Camille, I have the quote he made, and he just changed it thank you, I just stated my opinion, and he went off. Thank you.

Called me a smuck
Quoting 1940. SuperStorm093:
Can a MOD please ban Camille, I have the quote he made, and he just changed it thank you, I just stated my opinion, and he went off. Thank you.

who goes off 1 run like you! you need to look where the weakness is and learn from me!!
well i dont tell exactly where i live but i moved from california to the savanah georgia are lets say
If someone is going to call you names, the least they can do is spell it correctly. Schmuck or shmuck ;-)


Quoting SuperStorm093:
Can a MOD please ban Camille, I have the quote he made, and he just changed it thank you, I just stated my opinion, and he went off. Thank you.

Called me a smuck
Quoting 1929. Socalmargie:
in california we have santa anna winds which can reach 80mph and above, but very dry. is that what i can expect in a hurricane i just moved to the east coast


Winds can reach much higher velocities, and definietly are NOT dry.


1946. Grothar
Those waves look good until they get into the Atlantic



Quoting 1940. SuperStorm093:
Can a MOD please ban Camille, I have the quote he made, and he just changed it thank you, I just stated my opinion, and he went off. Thank you.

Called me a smuck


I don't think he meant it in a bad way.
Is there any MOD that is on right now, thank you.
Quoting 1901. MAweatherboy1:
If you're looking for something good to track for the next few days, keep an eye on 11W in the West-Pac. It's outflow pattern is excellent for such a young system:



And it is already building a solid core:



With favorable conditions in its path RI is a pretty good possibility, as JTWC has said. They forecast a powerful 120kt peak intensity through 5 days. If this path were to verify it would have a high end Cat 3 equivalent passing over the far northern Philippines within 3-4 days and a Cat 4 bearing down on Hong Kong in 5-6 days:

Definitely going to be interesting to track. This is the typhoon the GFS has been developing for days.
this blog is a little to much hostile for me maybe ill try another day
Quoting 1929. Socalmargie:
in california we have santa anna winds which can reach 80mph and above, but very dry. is that what i can expect in a hurricane i just moved to the east coast

Well there's somebody probably answering your question right now, but:

In a hurricane, one thing that can be different with the winds is that they are more turbulent and erratic. Such that there can be much higher gusts at different times. Also, the wind will most likely change directions as the storm moves over the area, resulting in more potential damage than straight line winds in an arid area.

Also, (as you probably already noticed) there is an abundance of large broadleaf and other thick-canopied trees in the Eastern U.S. not seen in California. This makes the wind seem a lot more destructive when many of these trees fall down and as the winds whip through them.

And then of course, in a Category 2 storm and higher, you will find winds higher than any Santa Ana winds out in California.

Well that's my 2 cents..
Quoting 1916. Camille33:
Big hurricane coming to north gulf coast next week this not looking good !!


What makes you think so ?
Quoting 1947. mikatnight:


I don't think he meant it in a bad way.
Rules are Rules, and I took that in the bad way, he needs to get banned temporarily, I did nothing wrong and he came at me.
18z GFS is weird. doesnt develop anything and keeps everything weak...
Quoting 1929. Socalmargie:
in california we have santa anna winds which can reach 80mph and above, but very dry. is that what i can expect in a hurricane i just moved to the east coast


Pray you don't have a cat 5 go through your neighborhood. Extensive stuctural wind damage from Hurricane Andrew (gusts of 180 mph).


Damage path Hurricane Charley (cat 4 winds gust 145 )
That wave coming off the coast of Africa is HUGE guys
Quoting 1948. SuperStorm093:
Is there any MOD that is on right now, thank you.



Will you plzs this use your ignore tool and this add him too your ignore list
Quoting 1946. Grothar:
Those waves look good until they get into the Atlantic



Quoting 1946. Grothar:
Those waves look good until they get into the Atlantic





Hi Gro-

But it seems that the ITCZ is moistening up and sooner or later you know what will happen- your cactus will get appropriately watered.
Quoting 1793. Patrap:


That ULL gives me the heebie-jeebies! Especially watching it roll towards the west and GOM. Just don't like seeing any swirling mass heading towards GOM or round the Isles or FL LOL
Quoting 1954. wunderweatherman123:
18z GFS is weird. doesnt develop anything and keeps everything weak...


18Z is very unreliable
What the heck happened to the 18z GFS? It keeps the low over the Cape Verde islands without moving a single mile from 204 hours to 360 hours, while moving the isobars out from under it and getting defused into another wave. Seems like a contaminated run to me.
Quoting 1951. opal92nwf:

Well there's somebody probably answering your question right now, but:

In a hurricane, one thing that can be different with the winds is that they are more turbulent and erratic. Such that there can be much higher gusts at different times. Also, the wind will most likely change directions as the storm moves over the area, resulting in more potential damage than straight line winds in an arid area.

Also, (as you probably already noticed) there is an abundance of large broadleaf and other thick-canopied trees in the Eastern U.S. not seen in California. This makes the wind seem a lot more destructive when many of these trees fall down and as the winds whip through them.

And then of course, in a Category 2+ storm, you will find winds higher than any Santa Ana winds out in California.



That's a good summary, Opal, for someone who's never been in one. The only thing I would add would be to get together a hurricane preparedness kit.
Quoting 1912. PalmBeachWeather:
I see Indian River Guy "Marty" is watching....Thanks friend for all you do


Just got off the water. Deployed some reef balls at Pecks Lake for shore protect. Cooperative effort put together for an Eagle Scout service requirement. State Parks, Florida Oceanographic Society, Indian Riverkeeper, and Reilly, our Scout. I did not attend the SFWMD WRAC meeting some of you will hear about, I did something constructive :)

Thank you for your support, come join us on Sunday, we want to have continuous hands from Stuart Beach to Jensen Beach. Last Saturday 7000 showed...

ohh, my last post number was 1909, Gro will understand this, maybe some others.. SVDB... always wanted one...
Quoting 1929. Socalmargie:
in california we have santa anna winds which can reach 80mph and above, but very dry. is that what i can expect in a hurricane i just moved to the east coast


Hi Margie,

As someone who's lived on both coasts, but never been in the strongest winds of a hurricane, I'd say the biggest difference is water. In the many tropical storms I went through, the wind was always strongest in the midst of a downpour(spiral bands). In a hurricane, it rains for hours before the strongest winds even arrive, so you have waterlogged soil and a much greater risk of downed trees/powerlines.

Welcome to the blog :)
Quoting 1955. Sfloridacat5:


Pray you don't have a cat 5 go through your neighborhood. Extensive stuctural wind damage from Hurricane Andrew (gusts of 180 mph).

My late grandfather lived in that complex (Pinewood Villas), but passed away in 1992 before Andrew. He lived in one of the units on the end. Though Andrew happened less than a year before I was born, I watched a home video recently of my family visiting my grandfather out at Pinewood Villas, and it was kind of eerie watching it knowing what was going to happen to that complex and all those beautiful pine trees about a year later..
next.cv.wave....the.big.one
Quoting 1946. Grothar:
Those waves look good until they get into the Atlantic




Can you imagine how those waves would turn out if the Tropical Atlantic was prime for development?
Quoting 1966. islander101010:
next.cv.wave....the.big.one


Not holding my breath but we shall see
Hurricane Charely - wait until the 52 sec mark and check out the wind speeds.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeM-cjTEEA8
Quoting 1967. Doppler22:

Can you imagine how those waves would turn out if the Tropical Atlantic was prime for development?


according to the NHC new numbers when it does become active it is going to STAY active
1971. yoboi
Quoting 1897. LAbonbon:


10 years



long enough to enjoy a summer down here..........
Quoting 1891. JLPR2:
No wonder the 12z developed it, look at what the 18z run shows...



Simply massive area of convection emerging from Africa.
On schedule.
Quoting 1917. mikatnight:


Even the news too? I noticed the piece you posted on your FB page from ch25 pretty much ignored it (the real problem). It's going to require a political solution?


Bingo, that is the "only" answer. The sad truth is our elected officials are PAYING them to do this, then they make US foot the bill for pumps, plumbing and cleaning up their pollution. Then, when we the citizens try redress in Court over illegal 30 year leases on OUR property, the State Legislature ratifies the action. In Court, we had to fight the US Justice Depart.. so, our Government protects them in Court too...

The Ballot Box is the answer. It can fix what ails us.
Quoting 1927. Patrap:


man, look at that shear.. howdy Pat!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1976. ncstorm
Welcome Margie , Good to have you aboard , it's not always this hostile , usually very civil!
Quoting 1970. weatherlover94:


according to the NHC new numbers when it does become active it is going to STAY active
I knew they would keep it the same , or very near the same ! They know something we don't !
Good evening everyone...looks like the latest GFS has the BOC.

In a cat. 1 hurricane you can expect sustained winds of 74-95mph with 100mph plus gusts around the eyewall of the storm. Winds will shift direction as the hurricane passes. If you get the eye you will experience calm wind conditions. But after that is the back side winds in opposite direction from first half and usually the backside is worse than the first half. I have lived through hurricanes Irene 1999 ,Frances 2004,Jeanne 2004 and Wilma 2005 eye of this one went over my location got the worst of this one in West Palm Beach. The other made landfall 40 miles north of my location but since hurricane are so large we got the southern quadrants of Frances and Jeanne and experienced cat 1 hurricane conditions. But Frances forward speed was so slow we were pounded for over 24 hrs in hurricane conditions.
Anything that forms in the GOM next week will be pulled north by the strong trough pushing east. So the northern gulf coast states from Louisinana to the Florida panhandle should be in alert. Depending on the timing of these two systems interacting with eachother the west coast of Florida could be impacted directly as well.
Once something starts taking shape the data input for the models becomes more reliable to forecast initial track of system. We have nothing yet but during the next few weeks when favorable conditions take over atlantic basin the models will start making more sense.
I know the discussion on Hurricane Camille is ancient history but I can't help comment since I was described as "an idiot" who "wants money" and is "ignoring the experts" and "disrespecting the victims of the storm" due to my blog entry "Hurricane Camille was not a Category 5 at Landfall."

Just to clarify, all the information I used was from official sources (linked in my post directly). The official NOAA wind contour map of the storm shows winds at landfall being 145mph. A thorough survey by the National Bureau of Standards (the government/civil defense) in 1969 estimated peak winds at landfall to be 125mph. Another extensive survey of the Mississippi coast found little wind damage but tremendous storm surge damage. Additionally, all the claims that gusts of "212", "218" or higher were recorded are inaccurate as no source anywhere mentions such readings. The highest on land reading was 129mph, and the highest offshore reading (70 miles from MS) was 172mph, which was reduced to 144mph at 30ft elevation by the NBS. The anemometer also did not fail due to the storm but instead a jam in the paper tray.

Finally, it is not "disrespectful" to seek accuracy on historical events. The NWS re-analysis commission is not disrespecting those who were lost in historical storms, only finding the truth so we can better prepare for future events. Camille was a catastrophic storm no matter what the winds at landfall were.

And just to clarify, I pay for my website domain and have never received a penny from advertising.

Anyways, carry on...
@ExtremePlanet

Why post that here on Dr. M's old blog? Would be much better to post it on the current blog, I would think. I for one respect your opinion and value it, I can't imagine all those 200 mph readings as being true...
I'm kinda trying to avoid a big argument in the newer feeds as the issue surrounding Camille evokes some pretty intense emotion in people. I posted here because this is the entry where those comments were made.

Also, I am not too familiar with the commenting format of Dr. Master's blog.