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What's brewing in Greenland?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:34 PM GMT on November 20, 2006

The third in the series of Dr. Masters' vacation blogs.

We've heard a lot about recent studies showing that glaciers in southern Greenland have accelerated sharply over the past ten years, and that Greenland's ice cap is melting at rates not seen since the 1930s. It may seem difficult to put a positive spin on these ominous developments, but that's just what some entrepreneurs in Greenland have done by establishing the world's only beer brewed with pure Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater. The Greenland Brewhouse microbrewery, located 390 miles south of the Arctic Circle, is the world's first Inuit brewery. Founders Salik Hard and Steen Outzen use ice from small icebergs that have broken off from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Local fishermen specially select the icebergs, and tow them to the brewery in Narsaq. The ice is between 2000 and 180,000 years old, so has no pollution. The brewmeisters, conscious of the dwindling resource that forms the basis for their unique beer, emphasize that they only use ice from icebergs that have already broken off from the ice sheet and would melt anyway. Their web site states, "We are very much aware of the global warming, and it is very important to us not to destroy or use the unique inland ice, but only use the ice that have broken off."

I'm not sure if Greenland Brewhouse beers are available outside of Greenland and Denmark, but if anyone has ever quaffed one, please give us a review!

Jeff Masters


The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

give me that beer
YO aron when did dr m say he will be back?
On this RGB loop you can clearly make out the circulation in the caribbean.Nothing at the surface yet but the NHC thinks it maybe trying to work its way down.
taz you are a NAUGHTY fellow, you can't have that beer, its mine jo
lol it main beer and you can have any
I'm too young to drink. Anyone else over the drinking age - take a sip.
i am 21 lol
ok taz i'll give you one mashed potatoe and a punkin pie for it jo
i want that beer too :P
ok wahts all have a beer
ok taz, now THAT's a good, Thankful Thing!! jo
ok, I WANT to get a case of this stuff..
i buye evere one 2,000 beers no wait make that 1,5000 beers for evere one lol
15. Inyo
this is not what i expected to see in this blog but it made me smile.. i want to try that beer. I only hope that global warming doesnt lead to less ice-cold beer in the future.
snowboy you can't buy it, you gotta find someone that HAS one and barter for it....jo
Uh-oh... not the tunnel guy again!
Oh God!!! Dr. Masters just posted (actually Aaron did) a blog about melting glaciers....

This blog will be ALL ABOUT GW now!!!!

Well, I guess the blog will belong to CB.

I'll be elsewhere...
Drinking a beer as well....
No Nash....he posted a photo of beer. Now the blog will finally be about beer!
Nash has problems believing that GW is real... virtually all scientists say that it is (and not just including the ones who support Al Gore). There is too much evidence for one to think otherwise (if it is were just one thing, like Greenland's glaciers melting, that would be different).
Well Michael....that is just your opinion...and everyone has one.
Scientific discoveries are not based on consensus. They are based on fact!
Meanwhile I'm having a beer.
I suppose you can say the same thing about, say, black holes and stars (has anybody ever actually gone into the sun or a black hole to see what goes on inside of it), or what is really under our feet, or if the Earth is actually flat (LOL - this goes with the Moon landings being faked).....
Buy stock in any brewery right now. As this GW spirals out of control....we're gonna need a lot of beer!
Plenty of facts for global warming (better to call it climate change; global warming makes everybody think that it is only about warming). There are many theories that are just that - theories, with no real support whatsoever.
Right Michael....and Earthlings are the only possible intelligent life forms in the universe also!
Go and read Randy's blog. He has a lot to say about climate changes today.
The only? There are probably billions of planets like Earth out there and some of them probably have intelligent life on them (we just can't find them with today's telescopes and technology, only huge Jupiter-like planets).
Remember this everyone......How long have we kept weather records? Think about it, how long? 200 years? Correct me if I'm wrong, but bottom line it's a short, short, short time compared to the age of this planet. This earth that we live on is thousands of years old, and we've only been taking records of this for a couple centuries. How can anyone even begin to draw conclusions, patterns, or cycles from this short time-frame of records? For all we know this could be a cycle that repeats itself every thousand years, and all the little shifts in between during centuries are just part of a big thousand-year cycle? With such little data, there's no way to determine if the earth hasn't had a period of warming like this before, or if this warming will continue for eternity without ever cooling again.
Michael....I had my tongue in my cheek....try and develop a sense of humor man. Life is much more fun if you do.
No STL and CB. I do not doubt, discredit, or poo poo GW. What I DO discredit is our ability to completely control, stop altogehter, or alter in any meaningful way storms.

That is what I have been trying to beat into the heads of those on here who have this hair brained idea that WE can stop major hurricanes.

Find me one piece of PROOF, not some speculative hermit closeted jackball who says so.... PROOF!!! There is none....
Absolutely Levi. Just turn those thousands into millions of years and there you have it!
Nice to see you again man.
Ok...let's not talk aliens just yet lol. Not a pleasant thought. Let's get back to that ice beer lol.
Hey Rand, nice to see you again too :). Now, I might debate the millions of years lol, but I think my point is clear whether it's thousands or millions.
Your point is understood and I appreciate your input.
On this VISIBLE LOOP you can clearly see the cyclonic turning down there.This circulation appears to be in the mid-levels but there might be some chance its working its way down to the surface according to the NHC.
The most damning evidence is the incredibly fast rise in temperatures over the past few decades; what is causing it? Some blame the Sun, but there has been no sudden increase in solar output (not to metion that solar minimum, like this year, is supposed to bring slightly cooler temperatures because less activity decreases energy output). What else has also seen an incredibly fast rise, matching the recorded rise in temperatures (temperature and atmospheric composition records beyond the past 200 years are pretty reliable, due to ice cores and stuff like that, although not in the very distant past)?
Even if we ALL, however many this planet has, really do our part in curbing the warming of the planet, guess what???? Every summer (in the Atlantic Basin) the sun will shine bright and hot, the oceans will heat to at least 78 degrees and cyclonegenesis will occur. Nothing you can do. They have been happening since dirt was a dirty thought!!!!

We get carried away in thinking we can change the course of natural events, like we actually are more powerful than the earth itself...

Here's a lift from LRandyB's blog:

.... in the overall scheme of things, when you consider that the sun is pretty much the sole source of heat for the planet, we (humans) don't "add" to the heat budget at all. When you look at the amount of energy radiated by the sun and absorbed by the earth's atmosphere, humans haven't generated even a fraction of that energy during the entire time we've existed on the planet. If you're referring to global warming, that's a different aspect of the heat budget. I'm one of those who believe that in the overall history of the planet, we haven't been here long enough, let alone collected useful scientific data long enough, to make a valid conclusion about our impact on the overall global climate or the changes that appear to be occuring. Many ice ages have occured on earth. Are we contributing to climate change? That's certainly possible. But I don't believe we're actually "creating" a climate change globally.
Michael, there's still no way to absolutely tell if there hasn't been a warm-up like this before we started weather records.
Exactly Rand. Thanks for posting that. I agree completely.

Actually, there is a way. It is called the "Exodus", which many believe was the act of God, but there are scribes and carvings into rock that show weather events that were SO catostrophic, that we in modern times would never be able to comprehend.

It has happened, and ten times worse than anyone has ever seen since records were kept.
Yes Levi...I thanked Randy for that this morning. I agree also. Anyone that has not read his blog today should take the time. He has more to say.
Hey 23 there is some turning down there with that Caribbean disturbance. Might get something out of that by tomorrow, we'll see.
Posted By: nash28 at 3:32 PM CST on November 20, 2006.

Even if we ALL, however many this planet has, really do our part in curbing the warming of the planet, guess what???? Every summer (in the Atlantic Basin) the sun will shine bright and hot, the oceans will heat to at least 78 degrees and cyclonegenesis will occur. Nothing you can do. They have been happening since dirt was a dirty thought!!!!

We get carried away in thinking we can change the course of natural events, like we actually are more powerful than the earth itself...

Try to tell that to cyclonebuster and his imaginary tunnels... LOL... A single storm, like Katrina, has nothing to do with climate change and many more Katrinas wll occur in the future, just as they have in the past (the basic concern is that those Katrinas might become stronger or more common).
Thank you Nash.
So this is nothing "new to the earth."

Just "newer" to modern times.

Not only that, but because we have had our asses kicked recently with so many storms, it is now an issue.....

Cause and effect.
Nash, that's people trying to explain away the events of the Bible by natural means. You're probably refering to the 10 plagues brought down on Egypt? Or even if it's anything else in Exodus, it's still the same thing.

Rand, thanks I'll read the rest of Randy's blog today sometime.
hold on here...tunnels.......i'm a convert..they work..they work i tell you......and do you know how much heat..is generated from teenis shoes on a basketball court?....outlaw the nba i say
Read Randy's post carefully - he was referring to the heat given off by burning fuels (and human bodies... LOL) in the way a house gets heated by burning gas or oil, not the heat trapped by greenhouse gasses, which is what he refers to when he says "that's a different aspect of the heat budget".
(the basic concern is that those Katrinas might become stronger or more common).

Yes Michael they may become the norm for a cycle. That does not mean it did not happen before in Earth's history nor does it say that it is not normal.
You only know normal since you have managed to stand upright. The Earth is older and weathered more than you.
Yes Michael, thank you. This is what I have been (although unsuccessful) trying to convey to CB, but he refuses to face the reality of reality.

Can we make our world cleaner and safer for generations to come with some hard work and ingenuity?? Of course!!! And we should!

But the idea that we can alter weather is just insane.
see...say the devil incarnates name 3 times..and he shows up
LOL Ric!
Yes Levi. I am exlaining the plauges by natural means, and they make perfect sense..

I know this will really piss some people off who believe completely in the Exodus as it is, but I have questions....
Oh, I DO NOT support cyclonebuster's insane ideas. I do support people like 99% of respectable scientists and other bloggers (there is a blog for debating on climate change here). If a climate model some day poo-poos the idea of global warming (human-caused or not) and others agree, then that will be a different story. For now, they and records agree.
Here's a large infrared view of the caribbean.

Well, just remember guys, people throughout history have said a lot of dreams were insane. People said we'd never fly, drive horseless carriages, fly to the moon, build a station in space, you name it. Altering weather may very well be possible, you never know. I personally don't think it's possible, at least it isn't until we generate a force capable of controlling the entire planet's atmosphere! Just remember it could and could not be possible. A lot of things have been in history similar to this.
it could and could not be possible
Cyclone, have you read Randy's post???

Can you NOT understand it?
Michael.....as you evolve further into adulthood you will discover that the sky is never really falling and it is much more pleasant to not invest yourself too awful much in the beliefs of so-called scientists trying to justify their grant money.
Next week we could have an ice age evolving.
Yes Nash we all have questions. But if I could remember everything I've learned right now, I could show you that the plagues were not naturally caused. However I can't remember it all and I'm not very knowledgeable about that sort of thing anyway. Besides this discussion isn't about whether the events in the Bible are naturally caused or not lol.

I have to go now guys, got school to do. I'll leave you to your "chat", and I hope to see you all later!
Rand hit it on the head there...

Thank you for putting it into words that I could not, without getting scientific:-)
Oh, and someone get a hold of one of those Greenland beers lol. See ya guys!
rand...ice age..was the 70's......but remember....we had the dust bowl...which the scientists of the day thought it was the latter day version of gw
Great to chat with you Levi!
some one say beer
...not that I can taste the beer, I'm not old enough lol. But I'd like someone's opinion on how it tastes! Ok I'm gone now.
Cyclonebuster also has some idea that if the oceans get hotter, then storms will automatically get worse; he forgets things like wind shear (i.e. the Atlantic this year) and dust/dry air. In fact, there is still enough heat potential in the NW Caribbean to fuel a Wilma-like storm (or worse, since the scale bottoms out at 880 mb/165 kts):

Why no storm has formed? The above conditions and some other factors.
I did Nash? Thanks I guess. I had no idea I could be profound in a GW discussion. I usually have to exit.
Like I said Levi, I have questions, but I only used that as an example.. I am in NO WAY turning this into a religious blog, and that will be the last post on that. Just using that as an example of "this crap has happened LONG before cars and buildings and such."
and this hurricane year will end in 10 days from now
It already ended a long time ago, almost two months to be exact (hopefully, we will see an early 1990's type El Nino, although that might be bad to say because El Nino is not all for good).
SSt's are only ONE component of genesis. You can't just have SST's, but nothing else...

This year is the PERFECT example. CB, you say higher SST's reduce wind shear making for stronger storms...

Well, if that were anywhere close to correct, we would have had our asses, homes, animals, DNA, etc... relocated by the WINDS from major canes to Newfoundland!!! The Gulf this year had SST's hotter than the 6th circle of hell, yet, we had no hurricanes in the Gulf....

So that takes the theory and completely shuts it down.. It isn't all about heat. You cannot just "cool the ocean" Cool it all you want, but it also takes wind shear, dust, dry air in the mid to upper levels, etc.... In fact, Wilma bombed out in SST's that were not very warm.
CB- Do you not understand that SST's and wind shear are not related??
So that takes the theory and completely shuts it down

And I thank you Nash for that!

It takes a favorable environment....not just SST's.
You can figure that out just by breaking down the acronym...

SST= Sea SURFACE Temperature

Wind Shear= Difference in wind speed in the atmosphere...
Trying to do other things, like blow a hurricane away from land (or drop a nuclear bomb into it), are ridiculous for similar reasons. Any changes we can do to the environment are usually too small to have a significant effect on short time scales. Long term can be different, especially if it is cumulative, like CO2, pollution, extinctions from habitat loss or overhunting or overfishing.
Buster....it didn't work this season did it?
but what if there was no Wind Shear?
Keep studying please....we'll pick this up next season then.
What about El Nino? El Nino makes the water in the Pacific hotter and to a lesser extent in the Atlantic (it is pretty much worldwide; that is one of the reasons why 1998 was the hottest year on record before last year, which strangely did not have an El Nino and actually went into a La Nina near the end), yet shear is also much higher; it also can increase the amount of dry air (according to Gray), which can presumely cause more dust.
next season? lol next season been kill bye El Nino
No wind shear?

Or this.

Sorry I left my page up on auto-refresh and saw CB's comment so I just had to comment on this.

You say studies are saying that warming SSTs in summer time lowers wind shear so that's why we have a hurricane season? Are you forgetting the basics of winter/summer seasons? In winter the jetstream is quite far south, causing tremendous shear in the tropics. In the summer, the jetstream retreats to the north, which removes most of the shear. That, coupled with warmer SSTs in the summer, creates our hurricane season.
next season? lol next season been kill bye El Nino
Right; hurricnae season generally begins when SSTs get warm enough, shear drops low enough, and other atmospheric dynamics become favorable enough for storms to form; the end is mainly due to increasing shear; also, the Caribbean never cools down enough to prevent hurricnaes from forming. In any case there is no "magical" 80 degree point needed for hurricanes, as shown many times over the last couple years (Gordon intensified into a Category 2 over ~75 degree water).
But once again CB, what about this season? SSTs were REALLY HOT in the gulf especially, yet wind shear was unusually high for most of the season. I think this is just part of the normal hurricane cycle, involving El Nino/La Nina cycles, and other patterns. 2005 was a once in a century season, remember that. We all thought(at least most of us) that this year would be almost as bad as last year, but look what happened, it was a dud. The season of 2005 will not be topped (if ever) for a long long time.
The main reason it is said that 80 degree water is needed for tropical cyclones is because they generally form over water that is at least that warm, say 80-90% of storms (it is easier for storms to maintain their intensity over cooler water than it is for them to develop).
CYCLONE!!!!! HOW do you explain THIS YEAR!!!!

You continually conveniently avoid my points, by counteracting with the same speech with every post.

This year= High wind shear in the Carribbean and Gulf, with HIGH SST's.

Does that NOT take what you have been yelling about and COMPLETELY turn it on its ear??

Now, instead of answering with... "higher SST's WILL reduce wind shear".... try and answer my actual question that was directed at you. Man up and answer the question with the hard FACTS that you don't have to go to an encyclopedia to get. It just happened this calendar year... Please, do not just throw the same closed minded answer out and answer this question honestly...
good thing we did not get a hurricane in the gulf with no Wind Shear with 2 eddys and 95 sea temps this year

We are currently in the upward cycle for increasing number of hurricanes per season in the Atlantic basin. Indeed activity has increased since the 1990s, and we will be in an increased period of hurricane activity for the next 20-30 years, then it will go back down. Same goes for global warming. Where I live in Alaska there are studies on the surprisingly warm winters the last 5 years up here. This is no more than the normal cycle of temperatures. Alaska was warm at the beginning of the 20th century, then went into a cold spell for 40 years, which is how everyone came to think that Alaska is always cold. We are now at the peak of a warming phase which started in the 1970s, and we are starting back down to a colder period. Indeed this winter right now is very very cold. We've had temps 15-20 degrees below normal for a month and counting now, and at least 2 more weeks of this is expected.

Anyway, I'm done lol. Gotta get back to my school. See you all later!
Yeah CB, and NO ONE KNOWS what next year holds, but I can tell you this....

No tunnels, or CO2 is gonna have a ducks fart worth of effect on what the season does.

CB I agree with Nash. Why don't you show us the "facts" these studies are turning up if you're so sure about this. PROVE to us that SSTs can lower wind shear.

OKOK I'm gone! lol

Who knows? There could be another Wilma in the next few years (I have had two "most intense Atlantic storms ever" so far in my lifetime, Gilbert and Wilma). But, it is a lot less likely that 2005 will be repeated (something like 200 records broken).
Here is your problem:

Kerry Emanuels formula for tropical cyclone maximum wind speed potential based on SSTs*

There. Does it mention shear? No. Dry air? No. etc.......

*Note that the formula uses more than just SSTs; it also uses the upper-atmospheric temperature (which works in the opposite way; colder temperatures = higher potential intensity) as well as pressure and mixing.
Hey, can an old lady get a beer around here? I want mine COLD! Don't let GW get close to it! LOL! :)

How is everyone tonight?
Quick...get that woman a beer!
Hello mermaid!
Arm of the land!!
Thanks Rand!!

Hello STL!
I hope you are all having a GREAT night!! :)
Now your stating the obvious to make a otherwise lack luster point.
I wonder, CB, how old are you and what do you really do besides think about tunnels?
All I see is a information jam.
Wow and you know, it's almost too deep for this blog!
It is NOT about SST's Buster. Just stop! Do not continue this on the Doc's blog!
LOL... Did you mean to type 12 years old?
I get the feeling Randy's a big boy so if I were you i'd take that back.
You have all but humiliated yourself CB.
guys chill its only monday! how old are you really CB ?
I'm 16 with the car keys baby!
No not you wishcaster
im 25 with a job!! :)
(He hesitates to ask) What do you do for a living?
so what do we think about the carribean
Posted By: stormchasher at 11:06 PM GMT on November 20, 2006.

guys chill its only monday! how old are you really CB ?

He's in his mid 40s, a little too old to be wearing diapers I might add.
Whishcaster who are you talking to?
Miamiweather windshear is very high across the western caribbean and right development chances are very low.NHC earlier mentioned a hint of a surface circualtion trying to develope but in my opinion conditions are very hostile all across the basin and look to remain that way till next season.

ps!check your mail.

Here is a link to my new website....

Stormchaser check your mail!
thanks 23:0)

Expected high 84
Offical Temp 92

High preasure didnt break down as expected.
155. 882MB
From the final Tropical Depression SERGIO Forecast Discussion

If it wasn't for the shear, here's what we would have:
Nov 8 1994 to Nov 21 1994
i am looking for help with this and what would this mean

245 PM PST MON NOV 20 2006


what dos any one make of this and went me no what this means for me
Check out the figures for Buoy 41008, the nearest buoy to me (and the storm center)

7:50 pm N ( 5 deg ) 24.5 kts
7:40 pm N ( 5 deg ) 15.2 kts
7:30 pm N ( 358 deg ) 7.2 kts
7:20 pm N ( 3 deg ) 6.0 kts
7:10 pm N ( 0 deg ) 6.8 kts
7:00 pm N ( 2 deg ) 7.2 kts
Evening All,
Yipee !!! am now under a nice red blob and lots and lots of rain at last ! oops and the wind coming in now with thunder .....
Hi Jeff, and hope you're enjoying the weather down here while you're on Sanibel. I'm in Cape Coral. See www.stewartweather.com for local weather while you're here. Sorry about the sprinkles and cool weather. We're complaining to the Governor. We don't pay Florida taxes to have to endure any Florida freezes (which is anything under 70!) The rain we call "liquid sunshine". Anyhoo, take a drive through Ding Darling on the island and maybe a gator can take a peek at you!
Who has a cold one?
I do Rand ya want lime?
I don't want one out of a tunnel....and no global warming beer neither. Just a plain cold beer will do!
Lime is good...long as it has no pimples on it!
Geez I "Whish" I had a huggy
LMAO....just wait a couple!
I can cast you some limes hang on
Oh heck lets just get the tunnel og sorry funnel
Hello guys wassup this evening?
Noreaster in the MAking I hear?
This nipples for you!
Keep trolling guys...I'll BRB.
Hey guys - a passing note before I retire for the evening. Remember - Beer is not just for breakfast anymore. lol Take care
Well Rand you must be careful some are allergic to latex so make shure that it is non allergic.
oh NOOO! we can't crash the Good Dr.'s blog! I mean...just cause he went on VACATION...and his blog is about BEER...(geesh it's almost like he's tempting us)
I wonder if you whishcasted beer down the tunnel would it cool the ocean surface. I must research this thought more.
Rand I prefeer Corona if you please.
Patrap - No turbodog. lol
Well we can try to get the Coors Corporation to assit with sending its rocky mountain water to the gulf to lower the ssts
CAUTION..do not double click the six-pak..a tunnel will appear!
Thats a good idea sandcrab.But we will need Federal Tax dollars
But if you lower the ssts,the wind shear will increase!
Mr. Turks,

Is it actually raining there? We've had overcast skies, light winds but also rapidly falling temps this evening. It's supposed to go down to the mid-60s in the NW Bahamas, which, as u know, is bone-chilling weather here . . .
Oh my I am so silly I forgot that young folks are so much aware and smarter than thier elders and have no respect of others so what am I whishcasting for.
Maybe they can dig a tunnel from the rockies to the gulf.
Pat I think that FEMA would buy the idea they have bought a lot of other things lately.lol
Best post by Dr. Masters yet.
Maybe we can secure a grant for Buster and his tunnels.....then he can just SHUT UP!
Rand well we could look for a good proctor Doctor and have one inserted.lol
Looks good under the docs beer..LOL
LMAO Crab!
Higher shear = more tornadoes/less hurricanes
Lower shear = more hurricanes/less tornadoes

Which one is better?
I'll have another Corona Michael....
Easy on the Butt jokes..LOL have a lil respect
It must be nice to sit on the hill and wonder what a true disaster is. I only can whish and caster about that it must be good to be young and DUMB
Sorry there Pat.
Pat - I see So. Wine & Spirits in Orlando has Fleur-de-lis. I'll try it.

Posted By: StSimonsIslandGAGuy at 8:59 PM EST on November 20, 2006.
Check out the figures for Buoy 41008, the nearest buoy to me (and the storm center)
Now NNE 25Kt Gust 31, 30.02S
Pat we hold you as a tribute to know how to pass the gas.lol
Gas bettr out than in.Airwick Neutrelizer spray cheap..
I am still amazed that after the statement made about Gators daughter and trying to get an appology that the good blog police did not step in.
Will root beer do? (unfortunately taking meds for a bad shoulder that makes beer imbibing, shall we say, somewhat hazardous)

There is a beer brewed locally here, Kalik, which allegedly kicks better if u buy in in Nassau than if u buy the "lite" version available in the US . . .

HMmm seems the cowards are silent.
I guess the blog cops decided we could handle the wishgirl Crab.
I can't handle that Pat!
I suggest that we convert again at 8:00pm cst tommorrow and go again. any thoughts?
Nite, all.

Maybe tomorrow we will actually see if that low moves from where it is to where they "say" it is going . . .
Yeah....why not. They must all be in time-out tonight!
twenty hundred hours..Aye aye..
221. Inyo
Posted By: Tazmanian at 1:52 AM GMT on November 21, 2006.
i am looking for help with this and what would this mean

245 PM PST MON NOV 20 2006


Well i am not a weather expert but I think what it means is that a high pressure area in the central pacific is diverting the jet stream north over the central pacific rather than the eastern pacific where it is now. That means it will be diving south again to the east, near California. (thus the northwest flow, the jet stream will be coming from the northwest) It would mean that the storm track, which is currently pointed at Seattle, would move south towards Central or Southern California. This would be expected this time of year with the strengthening El Nino, which often forces the jet stream south to flood out Malibu and leaves Seattle high and dry.

The MJO is the madden julian oscillation which is a short term wave of convection that moves around for a week or two, and affects weather 'downstream'. MJO 'waves' can cause a lot of tropical convection in the central Pacific which can be tapped by winter storms, often in the 'Pineapple Connection' pattern. So, it could mean wetter weather for California.

It has been really dry in southern California despite the El Nino and I am waiting for the rain to bring the plants up and end the fire season. The rainy season has not started yet, perhaps because El Nino was late offset... however the prediction for winter is for a lot of big storms in southern California, possibly as far north as SF too.

of course, these things are poorly understood so it could do anything.
Ok great, well all have a good evening got 3 meetings in the am tommorrow. I say thanks and had a good time with my friends. To all a good nite
OK Crab....I'll see you here tomorrow night...9pm eastern.
: Inyo thanks

Ahh Baha, I have had plenty of Kalik myself. I believe you can even find it in SoFla now. I first experienced it on Grand Bahama for a softball tournament a couple of summers ago. Still wear some of my "Brewed In The Bahamas" Kalik shirts :)
So, where's the brewskies?
Randy needs some sleep.
Bring it.
Who's going to bring the drinks?
Why do you hate me? It's pathetic you know.
You sure like to wait for me don't you Randy.
It might be wise for me to post a vigil tonight.
Posted By: Randrewl at 8:49 AM GMT on November 21, 2006.

Boy....and I sincerely call you boy. Be here tonight at 9pm eastern.

I can't, the Mr. Battle Ground competition is tonight.
Posted By: Randrewl at 8:49 AM GMT on November 21, 2006.

Boy....and I sincerely call you boy. Be here tonight at 9pm eastern.

I can't, the Mr. Battle Ground competition is tonight.
255. MahFL
From the Vis sat pics, the low center is South of the GA border, just offshore NE FL. Thats a lot closer than I was expecting :)
What the hell happened on here last night?
Southeastern NC already 4 inches of rain and gusts to 38 mph. SOGGY and 39 degrees.

morning everybody! :)

We actually have some snow flurries in the myrtle beach area this morning....

Hope everybody has a safe and Happy Thanksgiving!
I have just memorized the first 123 digits of Pi and still going

A loop of thread is dropped onto a water surface so that all of the thread is in contact with the water, as seen in the photograph below.

As the thread loop is at rest on the surface of the water, a drop of soap solution is dropped onto the water inside the thread loop. The question this week involves what, if anything will happen to the thread loop when the soap solution is dropped onto the water.

When the soap is dropped into the center of the thread loop, the loop will:
(a) become larger.
(b) become smaller.
(c) remain the same size.


Gale force winds in Charleston and Savannah, SC this morning.....

Conditions at TYBG1 as of
(8:31 am EST)
(WDIR): N ( 350 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 43 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 51 kts

Conditions at 41004 as of
(8:50 am EST)
Wind Direction (WDIR): N ( 360 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 38.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 50.5 kts
Physics update:

Cbbeachcum #1 correct answer
Zap #2 correct answer
268. K8e1
Its blowing like a banshee here in wilmington
just looked at the radar
711 AM EST TUE NOV 21 2006



Physics update

#3 Mac from Ft. Lauderdale! correct
272. K8e1
Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm-
Rest Of Today
N winds 30 to 40 kt. Gusts to 45 knots east of Bald Head Island. Seas 10 to 13 ft...except around 7 ft near shore. Periods of rain.
N winds 30 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 14 ft. Seas near shore 7 ft. Rain with isolated tstms. Rain will reduce visibilities to 1 nm or less.
Lots of smarty pants today:

Physics update:

#4 Mobal
#5 Cancunguy!!!!
274. melly
Gatorgrrrl.It's the typical Silverbacks
fighting for the territory.
LOL, Melly, but the silver backs get the girls and first dibs on the bananas!
279. Inyo
I was just in Jonestown, SC near Myrtle Beach a week and a half ago and it was a pleasant warm day on the beach... now it is snowing? weird.
were there any accumulations in SC?
the ground is too warm in SC....... no accumulations...... although high winds have caused havoc with large trucks on highways, and bridges up in the air, are treacherous! Rainfall amounts have already exceeded 3-5 inches in many places with more rain on the way!

definitely a raw day in the Carolina's!
Statement as of 12:04 PM EST on November 21, 2006

... Rain may mix with sleet or snow at times through mid afternoon...

As widespread light to moderate rain continues to spread across
southern South Carolina and extreme southeast Georgia... cold air
in the lower levels of the atmosphere may allow some sleet or snow
to mix in. Although the widespread reports of snow across coastal
South Carolina have diminished... isolated reports of sleet and
snow have still been received. Although the chance of wintry
precipitation is much lower across southeast Georgia due to the
warmer temperatures... some cooling may allow the rain to mix with
sleet or possibly snow at times through mid afternoon.

Warm ground temperatures should prevent any Road accumulation... but
a light slush may build up on elevated surfaces such as vegetation
and vehicles.

Statement as of 10:00 am EST on November 21, 2006

... Strong winds over southeast South Carolina and southeast
Georgia since Monday night...

The following are unofficial peak wind gusts recorded through
900 am.

... Southeast South Carolina...
Folly Beach city Hall... ... ... ... .. 44 mph
Charleston Waterfront Park... ... ... 44 mph
Charleston Airport /kchs/... ... ... . 40 mph
Charleston wciv TV... ... ... ... ... .. 36 mph
Edisto Beach... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 35 mph
Pineville... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 35 mph
Goose Creek... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 32 mph
Summerville... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 30 mph
Hilton Head Island... ... ... ... ... .. 30 mph
Isle of Palms... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 30 mph
Moncks Corner... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 29 mph
Savannah National Wildlife Refuge.. 24 mph
Harleyville-Ridgeville ... ... ... ... 23 mph

... Southeast Georgia...
Fort Stewart... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 24 mph
Savannah Airport/ksav/... ... ... ... . 31 mph
Newington... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... .. 22 mph
Statesboro... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 21 mph
Springfield... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... 29 mph
Metter /RAWS/... ... ... ... ... ... ... . 20 mph

... Marine observations...
tower r8 /sabsoon tybg1/... ... ... ... . 52 kts or 60 mph +
tower r2 /sabsoon spag1/... ... ... ... . 49 kts or 56 mph ++
buoy 41008/Grays Reef/... ... ... ... ... 37 kts or 42 mph
buoy 41004/edisto 40nm buoy/... ... ... 52 kts or 60 mph

+ observation taken at 50 meter elevation
++ observation taken at 34 meter elevation
Catastrophe Bond Investors to Gain from Mild Hurricane Season
By David McFadden
November 21, 2006

Investors who bet against the odds of another devastating Atlantic hurricane season now stand to cash in big-time on "catastrophe bonds.'' Contrary to expert predictions, the season turned out to be the mildest in years.

Insurance companies sell the bonds, yielding interest rates of about 15 percent, to help them absorb huge payouts in the event of another storm like Hurricane Katrina.

The risk is high: If a storm causes massive damage during a bond's term, all the investment, including the capital, can go back to the insurer to cover the cost of recovery.

But as the mildest hurricane season in a decade winds down, hedge funds and other investors that bought the securities stand to make a mint. The hurricane season, which began on June 1, ends on Nov. 30. Not a single hurricane has hit the U.S. mainland.

"Usually by mid-November you can kind of take a deep sigh,'' said Greg Hagood, co-owner of Nephila Capital Ltd. The Bermuda-based hedge fund that invests in cat bonds is named for a type of spider that, according to island folklore, predicts the arrival of a churning cyclone by weaving its web near the ground.

The cost of reinsurance policies taken out by insurance companies to protect their exposure rose sharply after last year, when financial losses from hurricanes in the United States reached a whopping $57 billion, much of it from Katrina's damage to the Gulf Coast.

As a result, insurers turned to cat bonds to reduce risk at a lower cost or when they couldn't get enough coverage from a reinsurance company.

The amount invested in the field has doubled since last year, with more than $4 billion issued in catastrophe bonds in 2006, according to Rodrigo Araya, senior vice president of Moody's Investor Services.

The field attracts hedge funds or institutional investors with more than $100 million in assets to cover payouts. The bonds are sold to cover particular events, whether it's an earthquake, hurricane or another disaster.

As forecasters predicted major hurricanes for the 2006 Atlantic season, insurers wary of losses issued catastrophe bonds at discount rates. Money managers at Nephila and other firms snatched them up. Hagood declined to say how much Nephila invested.

But during this hurricane season, a shift in atmospheric pressure over the Atlantic steered storms away from U.S. coastlines and out to open ocean, scientists say. A warm-water trend in the Pacific known as El Nino developed more rapidly than expected this summer, generating winds that suppressed the formation of Atlantic storms.

"Anybody who is holding storm exposure right now is probably looking happily at their pile of premiums,'' said Warren Isom, aboard member of the Weather Risk Management Association, a Washington-based trade group.

All of the firms involved in the field use computer models to assess the likelihood of catastrophes and their potential impact on structures, down to a city block. Some, including Nephila, also have in-house meteorologists.

They bet against predictions last December by atmospheric scientist William Gray's research team at Colorado State University, which estimated an 81 percent chance of at least one major hurricane striking the U.S. coast this year.

And in March, Max Mayfield, then the director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said that while the 2006 season would not likely set a new record, the center's scientists were witnessing a trend of stronger and more frequent storms.

The catastrophe risk field was created after Hurricane Andrew wreaked havoc on southern Florida's coastline in 1992, generatingclaims that dealt a significant blow to the insurance industry. Despite the risk, it has generally produced secure bets for traders, according to Isom.

"Money managers can choose the risk area that meets their appetite. By and large, they haven't had to pay out too often,'' Isom, who is also a senior vice president at Willis Re, a reinsurance broker, said in reference to cat bonds.

The potential calamities covered by bonds have typically been limited to a few, including Atlantic hurricanes in the U.S., windstorms in Europe and earthquakes in Japan. But the field has grown as insurers look to offload their exposure to disasters such as terrorist attacks or a bird flu pandemic.

Swiss Re, the world's largest reinsurance company, has become an industry leader in issuing cat bonds for such "extreme mortality'' events.

"In the last couple of years we have seen new perils being securitized and that has been a step in the right direction for potential investors,'' Araya said.

Are you in or near myrtle beach? We are a few miles north on US17 and our rain gauge has run over.
fire16, i am off hwy 501, just west of the waterwy..... looks like we may have already gotten 3-5 inches of rain, with another 3-5 on the way!!!

gonna be some serious water on the roadways, and the ditches/ gullies are already full......

Conditions at 41013 as of

Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )Wind Speed (WSPD): 38.9 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 46.6 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 16.7 ft
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.76 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.11 in ( Falling Rapidly )

looks like the weather is getting rough at frying pan shoals!

Good afternoon,

Here are a few radar loops of the developing coastal storm of the carolinas.

Physics update:

#6 Babygurl
#7 Lowercal
Amazing when one of Dr Master's rare party blogs coinsides with the final rap up of a hurricane named Bud.

Had a lot of fun with that one...& of all the bad things said of Bud throughout the years Hurricane Bud hurt or killed noone & damaged not a piece of property...
Posted By: Thundercloud01221991 at 8:03 AM CST on November 21, 2006.

I have just memorized the first 123 digits of Pi and still going

I had a substitute once (actually, multiple times) that had memorized 360 digits of PI!!!
See everyone later! Going on vacation for Thanksgiving to my family's lakehouse on Lake Travis, which is just NW of Austin, TX. I don't expect the internet to work there (it didn't over labor day), and even if it does, the dial-up connection is EXTREMELY, EXTREMELY SLOW!!! Sometimes, it takes up to 5 minutes to load this page! Ugh...
Happy Thanksgiving everyone!
Have a good time 1900 - enjoy your vacation.
From my blog: http://nzweather.blogspot.com/

Kyrant Carl, a Category One on the Kyrantal scale is just off the coast of South Carolina. For the US this is the first Kyrant of the year, although it is strong, it is nowhere near Kyrant James or Brendon, two Category Five Kyrants that occurred in 93 and 96 over in the US respectively.

Just to re-cap, Kyrants are very similar to Hurricanes in their form, they gain their strength by the amount of moisture present in the surrounding environments. The US Kyrant season looks like it is going to be strong, especially in the Atlantic and already it has been unusually active. Carl will make landfall in a couple of hours and it is expected to weaken with a max of 75 mile per hour winds. Carl should fizzle out over land. The Kyrant season ends on the first of April 2007 for the Atlantic.

Preceeding Carl was two Polar Storms, Anna and Brad

In other news, the South Pacific Cyclone season is slow in it's getting off. Since Xavier there has not been anything of note. Additionally, now that the Kyrant season is finished for Oceania I do not expect anything to develop there.

jeff mentions the greenland glaciers, but for the tourist traffic to the famous ''fiords'', and very sceneric glaciers of norway , well, this industry are on the brink of extinction, at just one year the famous Briksdalsbreen in Loen, sogn og fjordane, the reduction has been 140 meters at 1 (one!!!!!!!!!!) year, and some glaciers has become over 3.5 meters thinner over the same period of time........if the one who are interrested takes a visit at the glacier pics of norway, you will today see a nice large green lake at the end of the glacier....well in 1977 this lake was all underneath the ice and i could jump on the large rocks at the outer beach and touch the ice.............so something bad is happening, ...........