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What would a hurricane do to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:57 PM GMT on May 26, 2010

Hurricane season is upon us next week, and the Deepwater Horizon blowout is still spewing a geyser of oil into the Gulf of Mexico. With this year's hurricane season likely to be a severe one, with much above average numbers of hurricanes and intense hurricanes, we have the unwholesome prospect of a hurricane churning through the largest accidental oil spill in history. A hurricane has never passed over a sizable oil spill before, so there are a lot of unknowns about what might happen. The closest call came in 1979, after the greatest accidental oil spill in history, the massive Ixtoc I blowout. That disaster dumped 3 million barrels (126 million gallons) of oil into the Southern Gulf of Mexico between June 1979 and March 1980. Category 1 Hurricane Henri passed just north of the main portion of the oil spill on September 16 and 17, generating 15 foot seas and southwest winds of 15 - 25 knots over the spill region on the 16th. Interestingly, the NOAA/AOML report on the spill found that the winds did not blow long enough or strongly enough to control the direction of oil flow, as evidenced by the fact that the wind direction was often 180° to the direction of plume flow. The main impact of the wind was to dilute the oil and weather it, converting it to a thick "mousse".

Oil and beaches
During the Ixtoc spill, prevailing currents circulating clockwise from the blowout carried a 60-mile by 70-mile patch of sheen containing a 300 foot by 500 foot patch of heavy crude 900 miles to the South Texas coast. On August 6, 1979, tarballs from the spill impacted a 17 mile stretch of Texas beach. Mousse patches impacted the shoreline north of Port Mansfield Channel on August 15 and again on August 18. On August 24, mousse impacted shoreline south of Aransas Pass. By August 26, most of North Padre Island was covered with moderate amounts of oil. By September 1, all of the south Texas coast had been impacted by oil. However, Hurricane Henri formed in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on September 17 - 18. At the same time, a strong non-tropical low pressure system formed along the Texas coast, bringing gale-force winds and rainfall amounts in excess of ten inches to the coast. The combination of swells from Hurricane Henri and wind-driven waves from the non-tropical low pressure system scoured the oiled beaches of over 90% of their oil (Gundlach et al., 1981). The oil washed over the barrier islands into the estuaries behind them, and much of it sank to the bottom of the ocean. According to NOAA, impacts to the estuaries were minor. However, Payne and McNabb (1984) noted that selected regions of the coast, most of the beached oil was heavily resistant to transport during storms. Oil/sediment mats were ultimately covered by clean sand, but the oil/sediment mats were re-exposed and washed into the lagoon behind the barrier islands one year later when Category 3 Hurricane Allen battered the coast. No transport of the oil/sediment mats from the lagoon bottom was observed in the 3-year period following Hurricane Allen.

So, the Ixtoc blowout experience shows us that if a sandy beach is already fouled by oil, a hurricane can help clean up the mess. However, the situation is different along shores with marshlands, where the many shoreline plants offer crevices and tangled roots for the oil to accumulate in. A hurricane will help scour some of the oil out of marshlands, but the majority of it will probably remain stuck. This is also true of rocky beaches. Rocky shores fouled by the great Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska in 1989 have been pounded by many hurricane-strength storms over the years, but these storms were not able to clean the beaches of oil like Hurricane Henri did for Texas' beaches in 1979.

Transport of oil by hurricanes
Shores that are already fouled by oil will probably benefit from a hurricane, but the oil cleaned off of those shores then becomes someone else's problem. The strong winds and powerful ocean currents that a hurricane's winds drive will bring oil to large stretches of coast that otherwise would not have gotten oil. This is my chief concern regarding a hurricane moving through the Deepwater Horizon oil spill. Consider the case of the Exxon Valdez disaster in 1989. The ill-fated tanker split open in Prince William Sound on March 24, and oil spill response crews were initially able to contain the spill behind booms and make good progress removing it. However, two days later, a powerful Gulf of Alaska storm with 70 mph winds roared through, overwhelming the containment booms and distributing the oil along a 90-mile stretch of coast. The oil went on to foul over 400 miles of Alaska coast, a far larger disaster than would have occurred than if the storm had not passed by. Similarly, a hurricane moving through the Gulf of Mexico spill will very likely make the disaster much worse, spreading out the oil over a larger region, and bringing the oil to shores that otherwise might not have seen oil. It is true that the oil will be diluted some by being spread out over a larger area, so some shores will not see a substantial oiling. But overall, a hurricane passing through the oil spill is likely to result in much higher damage to the coast.

I expect that during the peak portion of hurricane season (August - October), the clockwise-rotating eddy that is attempting to cut off from the Loop Current this week will be fully separated from the Loop Current. The separation of this eddy will substantially reduce the possibility that significant amounts of oil will reach the Florida Keys and Southeast U.S. coast, since the Loop Current will be much farther south, flowing more due east towards the Keys from the Yucatan Channel. Oil moving southwards from the spill location due to a hurricane's winds will tend to get trapped in the 250-mile wide eddy, potentially covering most of the surface of the eddy with oil. Thus we might have a 250-mile wide spinning oil slick in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico for days or weeks after a hurricane. This could potentially have a significant warming effect on the Gulf waters, since the oil is dark and will absorb sunlight, and the oil will prevent evaporation from cooling the waters underneath it. Since Loop Current eddies contain a large amount of very warm water that extend to great depth, they often act as high-octane fuel for hurricanes that pass over. The rapid intensification of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were both aided by the passage of those storms over Loop Current eddies. Thus the warming of the Loop Current Eddy by oil pulled into it by a passing hurricane or tropical storm could lead to explosive intensification of the next hurricane that passes over the eddy.

The Loop Current Eddy will move slowly westwards toward Texas at about 4 miles per day after it fully cuts off. When it reaches the shallow waters near the Texas coast in early 2011, the eddy will turn northwards and gradually dissipate, By then, I expect that the vast majority of the oil in the eddy will have dispersed, sunk, or evaporated.

Storm surge and oil
One of the more unnerving prospects to consider if a hurricane hits the oil spill is what the hurricane's storm surge might do with the oil/dispersant mixture. The foul mix would ride inland on top of the surge, potentially fouling residential areas and hundreds of square miles of sensitive ecosystems with the toxic stew. The impacts of the oil and dispersant on vegetation may be too low to cause significant damage, since the hurricane would dilute the mixture with a large amount of sea water, and wash much of the toxic brew off the vegetation with heavy rain. We do have some limited experience with oil spills during Hurricane Katrina's storm surge to shed light on the subject. Katrina's storm surge caused over 8 million gallons of oil to spill into the storm surge waters. The largest spill occurred when the storm surge hit the Murphy Oil refinery in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana. According to Santella et al. (2010), The refinery was inundated with 12 feet of water, and a partially filled 250,000-barrel above ground storage tank was dislodged and ruptured, releasing 25,100 barrels (1.05 million gallons) of mixed crude oil. Dikes surrounding the oil tanks at the refinery were flooded and breached and oil from the spill covered a residential area of approximately one square mile affecting approximately 1,800 homes. Front-end loaders were needed to remove the oily sediments from the area. A class action lawsuit resulted from the spill, ending in a $330 million settlement with a buy-out of properties closest to the spill and graded compensation in a larger zone. Katrina also caused a 139,000-gallon crude oil leak from a 20-inch pipeline at Shell Nairn Pipeline Company in Port Sulphur, Louisiana. Approximately 10,500 gallons of the spill reached the shoreline and coastal marshes, and only 10,700 gallons were recovered. This release resulted in a $5.5 million class action settlement to nearby property owners (http://www.nairnclaims.com). I haven't been able to find any information on how the marshlands fared after getting oiled by this spill.

Katrina's storm surge also destroyed an oil tank at Chevron's Empire facility, releasing oil into a retention pond in a region surrounded by marshland. Three and half weeks later, Hurricane Rita's storm surge hit the oily mess in the retention pond, washing 4,000 - 8,000 gallons of oil into nearby marshlands, which were heavily or moderately oiled. According to the EPA and Merten et al. (2008), the oiled marshlands were set on fire six weeks after the spill, resulting in 80-90% removal of the oil and contaminated vegetation. The marshland recovered fairly quickly, as seen in aerial photos taken five months after the burn (Figure 1)--though oil still remained in the roots, affecting burrowing crabs and the wildlife that feed on them. So, oiled marshes can recover somewhat from a storm-surge driven oiling, but it is uncertain if burning could be successfully used to restore a 100+ square mile region of marshland oiled by the storm surge from a major hurricane. Another big unknown is how toxic BP's dispersants might be to the vegetation.


Figure 1. Upper left: oiled marshlands as seen on October 10, 2005, near Chevron's Empire facility, after the storm surges of Katrina and Rita. Right: The marshlands on March 16, 2006, five months after the controlled burn. The marshlands had largely recovered. Bottom: the controlled burn in progress (October 12, 2005.) Image credit: Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Wind and oil
The winds from a hurricane hurl ocean sea spray miles inland, often causing major defoliation and tree damage far beyond where the storm surge penetrates. For example, Category 2 Hurricane Bob of 1991 blew sea spray inland 4 miles (7 km) inland over Cape Cod. The salt deposited defoliated nearly all the deciduous trees along the coast. Kerr, 2000 document the case of Category 2 Typhoon Gay of November 23, 1992, which hit the 15-km wide island of Guam with 95 - 100 mph winds. Interaction with another typhoon disrupted Gay's thunderstorm activity, resulting in a nearly rainless typhoon for Guam. As a result, heavy amounts of salt coated the entire island, resulting in nearly complete defoliation. The salt didn't actually kill many plants, and the island re-greened within a year. The Category 3 New England Hurricane of 1938 was able to cause salt damage to trees as far as 45 miles inland, due to wind-blown sea spray. Thus we can anticipate that a hurricane passing over the oil spill will be able to hurl oil and toxic dispersants many miles inland during landfall. In regions where little rain falls, the concentrations of the oil and dispersants may be a problem. Again, we have no experience with this sort of situation, so the potential risks are unknown.

Rain and oil
Hurricanes evaporate huge amounts of water from the ocean and convert it to rain. In general, we do not need to worry about oil dissolving into the rain, since the oil and water don't mix. Furthermore, about 50-70% of the oil that is going to evaporate from the spill does so in the first 12 hours that the oil reaches the surface, so the volatile oil compounds that could potentially get dissolved into rain water won't be around. Hurricanes are known to carry sea salt and microscopic marine plankton hundreds of miles inland, since the strong updrafts of the storm can put these substances high in the troposphere where they can be carried far inland as the hurricane makes landfall. The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Nora of 1997, whose remnants passed over Southern California, brought traces of sea salt and marine microorganisms to clouds over the central U.S. similarly, we can expect any landfalling hurricanes that pass over the oil spill to pick up traces of Gulf of Mexico crude and transport it hundreds of miles inland. However, I doubt that these traces would be detectable in rainwater except by laboratory analysis, and would not cause any harm to plants or animals.

Lightning and oil
Could a lightning strike from a hurricane ignite oil from the spill, and the hurricane's winds hurl the flaming oil inland, creating a fiery maelstrom of water, wind, and flame? This would make a great scene in a typical bad Hollywood disaster movie, but it's not going to happen with the universe's current laws of physics. Lightning could set an oil slick on fire, in regions where the oil is most dense and very fresh. About 50-70% of the evaporation of oil's most flammable volatile compounds occurs in the first 12 hours after release, so fresh oil is the most likely to ignite. However, the winds of a hurricane are so fierce that any surface oil slick of flaming oil would quickly be disrupted and doused by wave action and sea spray. Heavy rain would further dampen any lightning-caused oil slick fires.

Bringing oil at depth to the surface
Hurricanes act like huge blenders that plow through the ocean, thoroughly mixing surface waters to depths as great as 200 meters (650 feet), and pulling waters from depth to the surface. Thus if sub-surface plumes of oil are located within 200 meters of the surface, a hurricane could potentially bring them to the surface. However, the huge sub-surface plumes of oil found by the research vessel Pelican were at depths of 2300 - 4200 feet, and a hurricane will not affect the ocean circulation at those depths.

Comparisons of the Deepwater Horizon blowout with Exxon Valdez
One footnote to consider when comparing the Deepwater Horizon blowout to the disastrous March 24, 1989 Exxon Valdez spill: the amount of oil spilled in that disaster is usually quoted as 11 million gallons (260,000 barrels.) However, this is the number given by Exxon Mobil, and independent assessments by the State of Alaska came up with a much higher figure--24 to 36 million gallons, with state investigators stressing that the lower number was very unlikely. I'd be inclined to believe Exxon grossly understated the actual severity of the spill, much like BP is attempting to do with the Deepwater Horizon blowout. Steven Wereley, an associate professor at Purdue University, used a computer analysis (particle image velocimetry) to arrive at a rate of 95,000 barrels (4 million gallons) per day since the April 20 blowout, nearly 20 times greater than the 5,000 barrel a day estimate BP and government scientists have been citing. If he is correct, and the State of Alaska's figures on the Exxon Valdez disaster are correct, the Deepwater Horizon blowout so far has spilled five times the oil Exxon Valdez did.

References
Gundlach, E.R., Finkelstein, K.J., and J.L. Sadd, "Impact and Persistence of Ixtoc I Oil on the South Texas Coast", Proceedings: 1981 Oil Spill Conference (Prevention, Behavior, Control, Cleanup) March 2-5, 1981, Atlanta, GA. p 477-485.

Kerr, A.M., 2000, "Defoliation of an island (Guam, Mariana
Archipelago, Western Pacific Ocean) following a saltspray-laden
dry typhoon," Journal of Tropical Ecology 16:895901.

Merten, A.A., Henry, C., and J. Michel, 2008, Decision-making process to use in-situ burning to restore an oiled intermediate marsh following hurricanes Katrina and Rita, 2008 International Oil Spill Conference.

Payne, J.R. and D. McNabb, Jr., "Weathering of Petroleum in the Marine Environment", Marine Technology Society Journal 18, 3, Third Quarter 1984.

Santella, N., Steinberg, L.J., and H. Sengul, 2010,Petroleum and Hazardous Material Releases from Industrial Facilities Associated with Hurricane Katrina, Risk Analyis, Volume 30, Issue 4, Pages 635-649, Published Online: 16 Mar 2010

90L
I've been focused more on the oil spill, and will have just a limited discussion of (90L) off the South Carolina coast. The storm has changed little over the past 24 hours, and doesn't have time to develop into a subtropical storm, before an approaching trough of low pressure pulls the system out to sea Thursday and Friday. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is giving 90L a less than 10% chance of developing into a depression or tropical/subtropical storm, and anticipates not writing any more special advisories on 90L. There presently isn't much to be concerned with about this storm, though Bermuda may get more heavy rain and high seas from the storm late this week as it moves out to sea. Wunderbloggers Weather456 and StormW have more on 90L.

Central American disturbance
An area of disturbed weather has developed just off the Pacific coast of Mexico. The disturbance will bring heavy rains to Central America during the remainder of the week, potentially bringing serious flooding rains to portions of Mexico, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua. There is the potential for disturbed weather accompanying the disturbance to push into the Western Caribbean early next week and pose a threat to develop into a tropical depression. While there is high wind shear over the northern Caribbean, shear should be low enough to allow development should the disturbance stay in the southern reaches of the Caribbean. Any storm that develops in the Caribbean in the coming week would get steered to the northeast and will not pose a threat to the Gulf of Mexico.

Jeff Masters

Air and Water Pollution Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hot damn!

I like Dr. Gray's take on this season!

It will be "one hell of a year!"

Standing by for deployment...Let's get it on!
The conference is starting!
good morning.
the cam for the bop doesn't look any different than it did last night. so are you telling me that's all mud? i'm confused.
Think maybe they delayed the outlook so they could get a name plan together beyond the greeks, lol.
2005. hydrus
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
I agree has there ever been that much of a spread before i dont remember seeing a spread quite like this.
That 9 storm difference is just covering all the bases.jmo
Quoting CybrTeddy:


means that ACE this year could be higher than in 2005.
...and IF that happens it would be a first. 40 year highest single season climb if it spikes to 2005 levels or higher.
Quoting alexhurricane1991:
The conference is starting!


Are there donuts and coffee? They can't do a decent job of even this "base function" without the staples!
a huge thanks to all the wonderful engineers who worked so hard to stop this oil. now everyone needs to get out the way so we can get this cleaned up, and get our fisheries back to normal. i know its not over yet but the oil has stopped. good job people! can't wait to go fishing in 4 horse. last time i went i got a bull red. took about 15 mins. to pull in. love the fight.
Oz maybe you should just rent a little trailer in the Keys this season for August.
Quoting NttyGrtty:
...and IF that happens it would be a first. 40 year highest single season climb if it spikes to 2005 levels or higher.


I predict that this year will be the season that makes 2005 pale in comparison.
Cape verde systems acquire more ACE because they last much longer. I think Ivan has the highest ACE of any Atlantic named storm. This year seems to have alot of cape verde actions since the bulk of favorable conditions is in the MDR.
Quoting CycloneOz:
If BP succeeds with the cap later on...and everything is stopped...

WE SHOULD ALL GO OUT AND BUY A TANK OF BP GAS!

wuduyathink?

ummmm....... NO
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I think the most activity will occur right up and down 75 today. Not that far inland... we need more of a westerly wind for that.


Nope! WNW wind here in Orlando and storm in motion is SSE infact there are already some nice towers building to the north and northwest. Seabreeze collision should happen over western Orange and Lake counties.
Quoting gordydunnot:
Oz maybe you should just rent a little trailer in the Keys this season for August.


What I'd actually like to do is rent about three parking slots in that parking garage on the north end of the key! :)
Quoting AussieStorm:

ummmm....... NO


LOL! :D
2016. surfmom
thanks for the insights -
Prayers^ for the Gomex
2017. FIU2010
WTF, how they are up to the A and A session, about the announcement of the numbers? did we miss it?
Quoting CycloneOz:


I predict that this year will be the season that makes 2005 pale in comparison.

Yeah, it should be a very interesting season! Hopefully nothing too bad, but with the way things are looking, who knows! Looks like we are in for a ride!
Quoting CycloneOz:


I predict that this year will be the season that makes 2005 pale in comparison.



You have your bank account stocked OZ, seems your going to be a busy man this year.
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Basically means "Oh S*&^"


Quoting CybrTeddy:


means that ACE this year could be higher than in 2005.


Quoting Weather456:


Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is a measure used by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to express the activity of individual tropical cyclones and entire tropical cyclone seasons, particularly the North Atlantic hurricane season. It uses an approximation of the energy used by a tropical system over its lifetime and is calculated every six-hour period. The ACE of a season is the sum of the ACEs for each storm and takes into account the number, strength, and duration of all the tropical storms in the season.



2005 had 248 ACE (hyperactive)

Near normal is between 70 and 100


ty much to al
I was wondering why people were saying thats bad.

seems it's real bad.
2005 was not a good year for Cape Verde, believe it or not. If I remember correctly, dust and dry air were a problem in the tropical Atlantic. The extreme ACE value was because of the ridiculous number of systems. If this year's ACE does end up higher, odds are it will be because of a basin that is friendlier to long-tracked CV hurricanes.
Quoting CycloneOz:


I predict that this year will be the season that makes 2005 pale in comparison.
LOL. Whatever happens, you are going to be very busy for the next 6 months. It's just a matter of WHERE you are going to be very busy
We may not have as many named storms this year as 2005, but more bad ass storms will make landfall...in the Gulf and against the east coast.
Quoting FIU2010:
456, did you ever picture that we would see a season like this so soon, after the monsterous 05 season?


No. Last November I knew 2010 would be active, potentially not this active.
Live Broadcast by Ustream.TV
hello, could someone answer me?

the cam for the bop doesn't look any different than it did last night. so are you telling me that's all mud?
2027. FIU2010
pz visit me if your coming down here in aug, but, remember, it might be danerous, lol
I love you guys.

And weather456, I'm really impressed with how far you've come over the past couple of years. You're doing an amazing job, and please keep it up.

/loooong time lurker
Quoting NttyGrtty:
LOL. Whatever happens, you are going to be very busy for the next 6 months. It's just a matter of WHERE you are going to be very busy


I'm looking around for my 6-hour power grape energy drink. Ah...found it! :)

*chug...chug...chug...toss*

Okay...I'm ready. Let's get it on!
Quoting Dropsonde:
2005 was not a good year for Cape Verde, believe it or not. If I remember correctly, dust and dry air were a problem in the tropical Atlantic. The extreme ACE value was because of the ridiculous number of systems. If this year's ACE does end up higher, odds are it will be because of a basin that is friendlier to long-tracked CV hurricanes.


Very true...there were many more seasons with higher cape verde hurricanes. There was only 1 (2 debatable) cape verde hurricanes in 2005 - Emily (debatable) and Irene.
Hi, I heard a rumor from the coast guard offical said they have the oil leak stop. Does anybody know if this it true? TIA
Seriously unless you have some nice flotation device in your suit, don't even think about the Keys in a big one. There ain't a garage high enough down there.
2033. FIU2010
Quoting Weather456:


No. Last November I knew 2010 would be active, potentially not this active.


gulp, godspeed down there, my friend.
Quoting FIU2010:
pz visit me if your coming down here in aug, but, remember, it might be danerous, lol


I'll be sure to pop in and say hi! :)

Is there anything special you'd like when we meet and greet? A beer...or a shot of tequilla, perhaps sir? :D
Quoting Patrap:


Im well aware you constantly want a Fla strike...

So whats new?

Are your Hurricane Preps in order for June 1..?


Man you are nuts!! Do you read nothing about my statment says named storm. I said moisture from this system so get your crap together buddy. I am sick of some these people on here!
Quoting CycloneOz:


I'm looking around for my 6-hour power grape energy drink. Ah...found it! :)

*chug...chug...chug...toss*

Okay...I'm ready. Let's get it on!
LOL!! You ain't right OZ...but that's what we love 'ya
2037. FIU2010
geeze, this is turning into an oily conference.
Just read the report from NOAA. What scares me is that they tend to be conservative much like the NHC.

I think 15-20 storms is a real possibility.

Let's get those Tampa shields up!
Quoting jrweatherman:
Just read the report from NOAA. What scares me is that they tend to be conservative much like the NHC.

I think 15-20 storms is a real possibility.

Let's get those Tampa shields up!


HeadOn - Apply directly to the forehead!!!
Quoting jrweatherman:
Just read the report from NOAA. What scares me is that they tend to be conservative much like the NHC.

I think 15-20 storms is a real possibility.

Let's get those Tampa shields up!
Amen to that Tampa shields Activate!
2041. FIU2010
all three, oz. want to get wasted the night before the storm hits?
Breaking news Fox Says the mud has worked.
Quoting severstorm:
Hi, I heard a rumor from the coast guard offical said they have the oil leak stop. Does anybody know if this it true? TIA


I heard it could take a couple days. I hope that it is stopped. FSU thinks over 20,000 barrels a day were leaking into the gulf not 5,000 as the government said. How are you doing my friend?
Most interesting, and disturbing, thing about the NOAA Conditions Chart is the "arrow" pointing right towards the Greater Antilles....This could well be a reality during the CV season depending on the position of the A-B high and climatology suggesting a little bit of a "higher" trajectory potential durng La Nina years.....If Florida gets a big one this year, we might be talking a lot about the Heberts Box and that dreaded approach towards South Florida through the Turks & Caicos.
2045. IKE
Memo to WU: Your moderators will be very busy this season banning SN's. I wish you well. Good luck with it!***fingers crossed***
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

* 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
* 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
* 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)
LOL!!
@ DO YOU GUYS KNOW WHAT STORM SURGE IS???
Quoting FIU2010:


gulp, godspeed down there, my friend.


I'm in the Caribbean. Hurricanes are like an every year thing. No one beats Cuba in hurricane preparedness and response, so is the Lesser Antilles, Jamaica and most other islands. It's become a way of life so yea we will take on 2010 with stride. The only place I am deeply concern about is Haiti.
Quoting Patrap:
The flow has been stopped ans what were seeing is drill mud escaping ..thats a GREAT sign that the Mud has forced the Oil down into the drill hole below the BOP.

Now..if the pressures remain Low,that will allow the Top Crew to send down the concrete tonight to seal the Hole.

All is going well ATM.

Lets pray it continues to do so.


I'll bet that THIS time, BP will make sure that plenty of concrete is pumped into the well and that they don't get in a hurry like last time.

I've been in tight spots in construction before, where it seems all eyes are on your project. There will be a team of probably 10-12 people needed to pump the concrete... but at least 300-400 people standing around watching and then national video live feeds. Talk about pressure! That will probably be the single most televised, most expensive concrete pour per sq.yd in the history of the world.

I'll be glad when they finally get the leak stopped. However, that massive amount of oil is still going to wreak environmental havoc all summer long, perhaps even for a few years.
Quoting severstorm:
Breaking news Fox Says the mud has worked.


Great news!!
2051. hydrus
Quoting jrweatherman:
Just read the report from NOAA. What scares me is that they tend to be conservative much like the NHC.

I think 15-20 storms is a real possibility.

Let's get those Tampa shields up!
I can tell you how many storms we will have. Let me get my taro cards.
I just got a call from my insurance company. They read the report from NOAA and gave me 2 options on my home owners insurance:

1) I cancel today
2) They cancel me today

Oh boy!
2053. IKE
Quoting Skyepony:
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

* 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
* 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
* 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)


14 to 23? LMAO....uh...a rather wide range...too wide!
2055. Patrap
Quoting Jeff9641:


Man you are nuts!! Do you read nothing about my statment says named storm. I said moisture from this system so get your crap together buddy. I am sick of some these people on here!



I suggest you read back a year on yer posts.
Quoting jrweatherman:
I just got a call from my insurance company. They read the report from NOAA and gave me 2 options on my home owners insurance:

1) I cancel today
2) They cancel me today

Oh boy!


LMAO!
2058. Patrap
FOX is kinda behind the timeline..


Imagine dat?

Quoting NttyGrtty:
LOL!! You ain't right OZ...but that's what we love 'ya


LOL!

Yesterday, I got to show taco2me61 some of my hurricane gear. Everytime I pulled something else out, his eyes got wider! Haha

We've been having a big discussion about connectivity these last few weeks.

AT&T is useless in the plains. VerizonWireless with its "National Access" (instead of 3G) is only just better than useless.

However, the entire US coast has 3G coverage, so getting a stable, non-buffering connection is wholly expected.

The unknown will be if the 3G network can stay up and running long enough for you guys to see us hurricane chasers outside in the eye-wall get killed.

We should know soon enough...
Has NOAA given there numbers, if so, what were they?
2062. FIU2010
Quoting IKE:


14 to 23? LMAO....uh...a rather wide range...too wide!


no saving us from this year, ike. GET READY.
2063. Patrap
LOL...
Quoting Patrap:
Best to focus on Hurricane Prep if one is expecting a Active Season in the Basin.

Numbers dont help anyone with anything.

Save for Ego's

Its mostly a Guess as to what May occur.


and you got the biggest of all
Quoting AussieStorm:
Has NOAA given there numbers, if so, what were they?


We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:
14-23 Named Storms,
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.
2066. FIU2010
spoken like a true democrat, nope, they are always on top of everything.
Quoting FIU2010:
all three, oz. want to get wasted the night before the storm hits?


I'd rather go to church and say a novena, I think.
2068. Patrap
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
and you got the biggest of all


U betcha..the Biggest prep page going.

Feel free to link to it O Auricle from the North.
Jeff9641,

LOL, This blog is funny.
2070. FIU2010
23, 14, and 7, aussie. come on over to america, aussie, it promises to be an enjoyable summer up here.
Quoting Weather456:


We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:
14-23 Named Storms,
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.

Similar to my numbers, hehe. they read my mind.
2073. FIU2010
geeze, can they ask a question that's not oil related,
90L

there is a sayin, if you have nothing nice to say then best say nothing at all.
ok............................................
if 2010 really does end up with that many storms.. that oil spill could be up to Canada for all I know.
Quoting FIU2010:
geeze, can they ask a question that's not oil related,


Since there are no hurricane disasters yet...and there is plenty of oil-related disaster to go around, I'm not surprised.
Quoting Weather456:
90L



Still running models on ole 90L.
Quoting Weather456:
Jeff9641,

LOL, This blog is funny.


Good Morning my friend. How are you today? Any thoughts on 90E?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there is a sayin, if you have nothing nice to say then best say nothing at all.
there's another say'n, better to keep quiet and let them think you're an idiot than to speak up and remove all doubt
2083. Patrap
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
there is a sayin, if you have nothing nice to say then best say nothing at all.


U should take your own advice.
Period.

LOL
Quoting FIU2010:
23, 14, and 7, aussie. come on over to america, aussie, it promises to be an enjoyable summer up here.

if WU can scrape together enough $$$ for my airfare i will come, I can ride along with OZ.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Similar to my numbers, hehe. they read my mind.


Crap! They can do that now?
My advice today:

1) Celebrate that cement is about to be pumped into that leaking oil well.

2) Disregard NOAA's lame attempt at season predicting this year.

and 3) Embrace Dr. Gray's latest season prediction. It will give you the goosies!
Quoting Patrap:


U should take your own advice.
Period.

LOL


LOL!
Quoting CyclonicVoyage:


Still running models on ole 90L.


Apparently and to my surprise, yea....

Quoting IKE:
Memo to WU: Your moderators will be very busy this season banning SN's. I wish you well. Good luck with it!***fingers crossed***


Already seeing one that needs to go.
2091. Patrap
Quoting AussieStorm:

if WU can scrape together enough $$$ for my airfare i will come, I can ride along with OZ.


WU?

Wu has no relationship with extremestormjunkies.com

Quoting AussieStorm:

if WU can scrape together enough $$$ for my airfare i will come, I can ride along with OZ.


Haha! LOL! Taco got so enthusiastic when he saw all my equipment that he said he was going to go with me, too!

But when I asked him about his gear, he admitted that he didn't have any at all.

"You'll have to shelter like Cantore, ya know," I warned him. And he nodded in agreement.
2093. Patrap
Yup..and to be sure the one who needs to go had a hot mic a week ago.


And we notice all the wunderground tags save for a Wunderground sticker is gone from a certain site.

And to be sure the Hot mic was informative and saved for posterity.

Pfffft..Yeah,..u betcha.

Anything else to clear up sports fans?
90L looks better than it ever has.

Too bad its non-tropical.
if the oil has stop, why is cnn not reporting it?
Quoting mikatnight:


Crap! They can do that now?

oh, you didn't know?
Good morning! Breaking news?
I think we knew this weeks ago:

ROBERT, La. – Scientists studying the blown-out well in the Gulf of Mexico now say it's leaking at least twice as much oil and possibly five times as much as original estimates.

U.S. Geological Survey Director Dr. Marcia McNutt is the leader of a team put together to try to figure out how much oil is coming from the well.

She says results are preliminary but two teams using different methods determined the well is leaking at least 504,000 gallons a day. One team said it might be leaking as much as 798,000 gallons and another said that number might be closer to a million gallons.

The well blew out when the offshore drilling rig Deepwater Horizon exploded April 20.

BP and the Coast Guard had said since then that about 210,000 gallons a day was flowing.
When does Dr. Grays numbers come in? I honestly thought that was today..

90L looking good today, some convective clusters near the center showing that it is Subtropical in nature.
Update for the Oil Spill:
The Top Kill method (concrete/tire mix to plug it) is working so far. Also good news that they are estimating that they can recover 40% of the oil spilled! That is incredibly high! Reports are that the skimming techniques are working really well. So this is great! USF Bellos (vessel) sent out 3 gliders into the water column to check out oil dispersants and oil in the water column. So far none of the 95 tar balls found in the Keys are related to the spill, so that’s more good news!
Apparently, the investigation with the rig is very interesting. They have found that BP made some “short cuts” in developing the rig. In this particular area that they are drilling, there are high concentrations of gas with this oil. They have to lay down a temporary platform before they put a Rig in place. This platform helps to start the balancing process of oil and gas release. While putting this platform in place, BP decided to go the cheaper route and use a different material for the base of the platform—one that obviously could not handle regulating the oil and gas. Normally it is recommended that a heavier structure is at the bottom so that it helps to keep pressure on the drilling site. They were advised against using this other method by engineers and oceanographers, but they did it anyways, relying on the failure valve. Gas sometimes leaks up from this area when drilling in the form of “burps”, which is believed to be the source of the explosion. Since BP went the cheaper way, the temporary platform could not take the “burp” and exploded. Many engineers left the temporary platform/rig when they learned that BP was going against their advice, which probably saved their lives.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Good Morning my friend. How are you today? Any thoughts on 90E?


Havnt change much from my blog this morning. The visible images show 90E continues to consolidate and the center is evident as the focal point of curved cloud bands. Outflow is good and ssts are high.

The system will be tugged north then eventually ne by the same upper trough that has enveloped 90L. Thus a landfall near SE Mexico, Guatemala or El Salvador is likely. Rainfall is the biggest concern right now since estimates exceed 15 inches.

It still not guaranteed it or piece of it will make it to the Caribbean but at the same time, its a feasible solution.
Quoting WaterWitch11:
if the oil has stop, why is cnn not reporting it?


Because they're the only news network that is focused on NOAA's "no cojones at all" season prediction? ;)
First red of what looks to be an eventful hurricane season.
Quoting Weather456:


Apparently and to my surprise, yea....



That site is one of the few that does not allow hotlinks, you can only post one to his main page. Apparently, he does not like his work redistributed.
They might as well answer questions about the oil. They did mention the existence of the disaster in their text product. And it's not as if they're going to say "Hey we are forecasting systems that don't exist yet to become major and strike Florida at full intensity." Not everything is about Florida.
Quoting Chicklit:
Good morning! Breaking news?
I think we knew this weeks ago:

ROBERT, La. %u2013 Scientists studying the blown-out well in the Gulf of Mexico now say it's leaking at least twice as much oil and possibly five times as much as original estimates.


Wow...well someone should tell them to get caught up on their current event studies then, huh?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That site is one of the few that does not allow hotlinks, you can only post one to his main page. Apparently, he does not like his work redistributed.


I'll remember that next time.
Quoting Patrap:


WU?

Wu has no relationship with extremestormjunkies.com


I no that Pat, i wasn't serious about riding along with OZ, maybe i could come stay with you or maybe StormW
2108. Patrap


Like a Broken record.

90L was never sub nor tropical as per the NHC.

But you can call it Fredo if ya like.

90E

Dvorak Floater


Shortwave


Navy
2111. hydrus
Quoting reedzone:
When does Dr. Grays numbers come in? I honestly thought that was today..

90L looking good today, some convective clusters near the center showing that it is Subtropical in nature.
90L is really the remnant low of t.s.Karen.
2112. FIU2010
indeed, ikky.
2113. Patrap
Quoting AussieStorm:

I no that Pat, i wasn't serious about riding along with OZ, maybe i could come stay with you or maybe StormW


Shucks,we always have visitor room Aussie,..and I know a Pub you'd definitely enjoy mate
Well, if Wu can put enough $$$ together, I'll come.
Quoting Patrap:
Yup..and to be sure the one who needs to go had a hot mic a week ago.


And we notice all the wunderground tags save for a Wunderground sticker is gone from a certain site.

And to be sure the Hot mic was informative and saved for posterity.

Pfffft..Yeah,..u betcha.

Anything else to clear up sports fans?



GO MAGIC!!!
Now now boys... let's all play nice.
Wow

Wasnt expecting this at all

27/1145 UTC 30.6N 73.9W T1.0/1.0 90L


A comeback?

2118. SQUAWK
Quoting WaterWitch11:
if the oil has stop, why is cnn not reporting it?


Because they are a little behind every one else.

Imagine Dat!

Urrrp

Pfffftttt
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow

Wasnt expecting this at all

27/1145 UTC 30.6N 73.9W T1.0/1.0 90L


lol....what a twist of events
2121. hydrus
Quoting CycloneOz:


Because they're the only news network that is focused on NOAA's "no cojones at all" season prediction? ;)
This years storms will number between 1 and 100.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow

Wasnt expecting this at all

27/1145 UTC 30.6N 73.9W T1.0/1.0 90L


Still running models. If the trough misses it and it lingers down to the S into warmer waters, anything can happen. Still a very vigorous circulation.
Quoting Dropsonde:
Not everything is about Florida.


Well that's disappointing...
90L has a T number not a ST number, indicative of a Dvorák under the assumption 90L is tropical.
2125. SLU
Quoting Skyepony:
Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the six-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is projecting a 70 percent probability of the following ranges:

* 14 to 23 Named Storms (top winds of 39 mph or higher), including:
* 8 to 14 Hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or higher), of which:
* 3 to 7 could be Major Hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of at least 111 mph)


That to me is the most vague hurricane forecast since the big bang .. I must say i'm rather disappointed. Can't wait for Gray's forecast next week.
2126. Patrap
Coast Guard: Some success stopping leak

by Ben Nuckols and Greg Bluestein / Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on May 27, 2010 at 6:47 AM

Updated today at 9:41 AM
Related:


ROBERT, La. - The Coast Guard says BP is having some success slowing the Gulf of Mexico oil leak by injecting mud but the fix isn't done yet.

Coast Guard Lt. Commander Tony Russell said Thursday reports that Admiral Thad Allen, who is overseeing the operation, had called the procedure a success were incorrect. He said Allen said that the flow of mud was stopping some of the oil and gas but had a ways to go before it proved successful.

BP spokesman Tom Mueller said the effort that started Wednesday to plug the blown-out with mud, called a top kill, was continuing.

Mueller said BP PLC doesn't anticipate being able to say anything definitive on its success until later Thursday.

BP PLC was pumping heavy mud into the leaking well, and executives said Wednesday night that there had been no problems so far. Still, BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward said engineers would not know until at least Thursday afternoon whether the latest remedy was having some success.

"The absence of any news is good news," said Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen, who is overseeing the operation. He added: "It's a wait and see game here right now, so far nothing unfavorable."
Quoting Weather456:
90L has a T number not a ST number, indicative of a Dvorák under the assumption 90L is tropical.


Excellent point.
I noticed atcf has put 90L back to 1004mb and 35mph winds
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Shear is below average and still dropping
Quoting Patrap:


Shucks,we always have visitor room Aussie,..and I know a Pub you'd definitely enjoy mate


Best pub around here is the Willow Tree in Sanford. German owned.
Naw this can't happen, 90L was RIP'd about 600 times in the last 2 days

No way it can't come back, can it?
Seems they are thinking the trough is going to miss it.
2133. shakaka
Quoting Weather456:


We estimate a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity this season:
14-23 Named Storms,
8-14 Hurricanes
3-7 Major Hurricanes
An ACE range of 155%-270% of the median.


I'd be interested to hear where they came up with this 70% probability number. The fact that they use ranges already infers a probability distribution. That's what the whole point of using a range rather than one number. To throw 70% on top of that implies that they just pulled the ranges out of thin air then estimated the probability after the fact. I'm very confused.
that's right oz and fox is the only network that tells the truth
2135. IKE
Quoting PcolaDan:


Already seeing one that needs to go.


I see 2 that will never make it....ban-free, through the entire season.
Quoting Patrap:

WU? Wu has no relationship with extremestormjunkies.com


Okay...let's get it right.

XtremeHurricanes.com has merged with StormJunkie.com

Although XtremeHurricanes.com still works as a URL...it is now a full redirect

We're now calling ourselves XtremeStormJunkies. There is no "dot com" associated with the moniker.

Finally...the URL call-out is 7674u.com for when we're live on television news.

And although he got our name messed up, Pat is right. We're not associated with WU.

But all of our team members and partners are WU bloggers.


Quoting hydrus:
This years storms will number between 1 and 100.


lol
2139. Patrap
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

1414 UTC




Pretty decent outflow.

Quoting Jeff9641:


Best pub around here is the Willow Tree in Sanford. German owned.

Any good Aussie pubs there? maybe in Miami or Atlanta or New Orleans, heck, even in Texas.
Quoting Weather456:
90L has a T number not a ST number, indicative of a Dvor%uFFFDk under the assumption 90L is tropical.


Oh how the tables have turned in your favor. However on your blog you said:

"This is the last forecast on 90L unless something warrants."

Well the warrant has been issued. :)

Quoting CyclonicVoyage:
Seems they are thinking the trough is going to miss it.


Or they need to get crackin on the numbers they issued today :-)
It's an arguable mtter that 90L is Subtropical or Non-Tropical. A featured blogger on here has proof that it is Subtropical, NOT Tropical. Graphs and maps show the warm core in the system, but the NHC denys them. It's ok if people want to follow the NHC, they are the Hurricane Authority in the USA. Though I know Subtropical systems when I see them, so do others on here. It's like I said earlier, an arguable matter. The NHC may be experts, but not gods, I dont follow them sometimes because I believe as we make mistakes, they do to. Tracks of Ivan (2004) and Ike (2008) are good examples. Joe Bastardi probably thinks this is a very weak Subtropical Low, as it is. If any one thinks I should get banned for calling it "Subtropical", shame on you lol..
2145. Patrap
90L kinda lacking sum meat on her bones..

Like in 70 % of her circ..LOL

Quoting WaterWitch11:
that's right oz and fox is the only network that tells the truth


I would venture saying that FOX news is one of the few news outlets that does it's best to provide "both sides / all sides" of any given issue.

I think why people are so down on FOX News is because the conservative side pundits seem to always way-lay on the liberal side guys.

When it's not a fair fight, many go with the underdog.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Any good Aussie pubs there? maybe in Miami or Atlanta or New Orleans, heck, even in Texas.


Mostly German or Irish around here except Outback.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Pretty decent outflow.


that looks like the swirl the milk made when i poured it into my mug of tea a few minutes ago.
Quoting Jeff9641:


Mostly German or Irish around here except Outback.


mmmmmmm, Outback Steakhouse.
Quoting reedzone:
It's an arguable mtter that 90L is Subtropical or Non-Tropical. A featured blogger on here has proof that it is Subtropical, NOT Tropical. Graphs and maps show the warm core in the system, but the NHC denys them. It's ok if people want to follow the NHC, they are the Hurricane Authority in the USA. Though I know Subtropical systems when I see them, so do others on here. It's like I said earlier, an arguable matter. The NHC may be experts, but not gods, I dont follow them sometimes because I believe as we make mistakes, they do to. Tracks of Ivan (2004) and Ike (2008) are good examples. Joe Bastardi probably thinks this is a very weak Subtropical Low, as it is. If any one thinks I should get banned for calling it "Subtropical", shame
on you lol..


Dvorak thinks its tropical. So my thinking is something had to be subtropical before it went tropical. 90L was never non-tropical over the past few days, just subtropical but not organized enough to have a name.
2151. Patrap
Yer Tea most likely has more TCHP than 90L does Aussie..

I think 90L is actually a Karen remnant low still haunting the Basin.

Quoting Patrap:
90L kinda lacking sum meat on her bones..

Like in 70 % of her circ..LOL



She's all front sided with no backside.
2153. IKE
Quoting SLU:


That to me is the most vague hurricane forecast since the big bang .. I must say i'm rather disappointed. Can't wait for Gray's forecast next week.


Agree. From 14 to 23 is too wide.
12z NAM

Quoting Hurricanes101:
Naw this can't happen, 90L was RIP'd about 600 times in the last 2 days

No way it can't come back, can it?


600 times minus 3 bloggers.
2156. hydrus
Quoting CycloneOz:


I would venture saying that FOX news is one of the few news outlets that does it's best to provide "both sides / all sides" of any given issue.

I think why people are so down on FOX News is because the conservative side pundits seem to always way-lay on the liberal side guys.

When it's not a fair fight, many go with the underdog.
True. There is a lot of hype on FOX. The reporting is good. I don,t like hype.
2157. MahFL
So we could have 23 Storms, 14 Hurricanes and 7 Majors, woot !!!!!!!!!!
@ aussie
been meaning to ask. Is Foster's really Australian for beer or is that hearsay =P
Grey and TSR next week will be pretty interesting.
2160. Patrap
Most Aussies wont go near a Fosters Lager, been my sperience.
Quoting CycloneOz:


mmmmmmm, Outback Steakhouse.


Yeah a big bloke with a ribeye steak dinner 13oz.
2162. FIU2010
guys, i still cannot belieev these numbers.
2163. hydrus
Quoting IKE:


Agree. From 14 to 23 is too wide.
It borders on absurd. I think NOAA is a great administration,I never expected this.
Quoting Patrap:
Coast Guard: Some success stopping leak

by Ben Nuckols and Greg Bluestein / Associated Press

wwltv.com

Posted on May 27, 2010 at 6:47 AM

Updated today at 9:41 AM
Related:

* Live video of BP Top Kill operation

Gallery

*
*
*
*

See all 16 photos »

ROBERT, La. - The Coast Guard says BP is having some success slowing the Gulf of Mexico oil leak by injecting mud but the fix isn't done yet.

Coast Guard Lt. Commander Tony Russell said Thursday reports that Admiral Thad Allen, who is overseeing the operation, had called the procedure a success were incorrect. He said Allen said that the flow of mud was stopping some of the oil and gas but had a ways to go before it proved successful.

BP spokesman Tom Mueller said the effort that started Wednesday to plug the blown-out with mud, called a top kill, was continuing.

Mueller said BP PLC doesn't anticipate being able to say anything definitive on its success until later Thursday.

BP PLC was pumping heavy mud into the leaking well, and executives said Wednesday night that there had been no problems so far. Still, BP Chief Executive Tony Hayward said engineers would not know until at least Thursday afternoon whether the latest remedy was having some success.

"The absence of any news is good news," said Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen, who is overseeing the operation. He added: "It's a wait and see game here right now, so far nothing unfavorable."

so what is it? is the leak stopped or is it just a little less than before? obviously no one knows what they are talking about. why say it has been stopped and then say its just a little less?
Quoting reedzone:
IIt's ok if people want to follow the NHC, they are the Hurricane Authority in the USA.


It's not okay by me. Since they've thrown out "high-school" level numbers like this as a prediction, I wouldn't trust them at all...especially if I lived on the coast.

I've mocked them all in my new book (that's almost finished,) and they deserve it.

They're no more than just a bunch of scared little, model-running hacks now.

I say release Joe Bastardi among them...because it's going to take someone with his fortitude to bring this group of "government employees" back into reality.
If 90L has actually gone tropical, it needs to put on some clothes. However, I am reluctant to accept that it's tropical strictly on the basis of a Dvorak estimate. Pity that the budget for flight is not higher. Weird hybrid-type zombie systems like this need to be studied just as much as typical Atlantic waves do, if not more so.
90L might deserve watching, but so long as those cloud tops are getting blasted west to east and into the COC, we wont see anything more than convective flareups and a naked swirl.
Quoting Weather456:


Dvorak thinks its tropical. So my thinking is something had to be subtropical before it went tropical. 90L was never non-tropical over the past few days, just subtropical but not organized enough to have a name.


Exactly, it's been Subtropical for 2 days.. Yet people deny that fact because of what the NHC said.
Quoting shakaka:


I'd be interested to hear where they came up with this 70% probability number. The fact that they use ranges already infers a probability distribution. That's what the whole point of using a range rather than one number. To throw 70% on top of that implies that they just pulled the ranges out of thin air then estimated the probability after the fact. I'm very confused.


It's all probabilities since it's an outlook at the unknown. Perhaps they have a 20% higher & 10% lower chance outside the spread. Obviously the spread was a problem in coming up with the outlook, without the 70% the spread would have been even larger.
Quoting weather42009:


600 times minus 3 bloggers.


I think I was the 1st one to RIP it.

What a dog of a system...from beginning to end?
90E is a huge system:


Anyway, 90L still showing vorticity but no beef...a fig newton of your imagination.



If it goes further east it can mingle with the Bermuda Triangle and find a kindred spirit!
Quoting SouthALWX:
@ aussie
been meaning to ask. Is Foster's really Australian for beer or is that hearsay =P

it's an Australian export beer. most pubs and clubs here don't have it on tap.
2174. hydrus
Quoting Skyepony:


It's all probabilities since it's an outlook at the unknown. Perhaps they have a 20% higher & 10% lower chance outside the spread. Obviously the spread was a problem in coming up with the outlook, without the 70% the spread would have been even larger.
Larger?? Lmao
14-23 is two different hurricane seasons all together. That is too wide.
Quoting hydrus:
True. There is a lot of hype on FOX. The reporting is good. I don,t like hype.
i agree. fox reports on things i don't even hear the other stations talk about. stuff i feel needs to be reported or talked about.
2177. Patrap
Pity that the budget for flight is not higher

Cost is NEVER a consideration for a NOAA nor HH Hunter flight

Period
Quoting Chicklit:
90E is a huge system...


Yep...and it looks like it's trying to develop some outflow.

It won't be long now...and we'll have a TD.
2179. SLU
Quoting IKE:


Agree. From 14 to 23 is too wide.


Yeah it's as if they have very little confidence with their forecast skill. That sort of range plus a probability doesn't really tell me exactly what type of season I should expect. They're also saying that there's a 30% probability that the season could be outside of that range also. Very, very unclear from my point of view anyway ...
Quoting AussieStorm:

it's an Australian export beer. most pubs and clubs here don't have it on tap.

lol, so you ship out crap you wouldnt use yourself ... are you sure you arent part of america XD
Quoting Weather456:
14-23 is two different hurricane seasons all together. That is too wide.


You said it, 456. It makes no sense something like this coming from "the best and the brightest."

I have a feeling that the NHC has been "dumbed-down."

It happens all the time in government operations. And there is a reason it does...(I may explain later.)
Quoting SLU:


Yeah it's as if they have very little confidence with their forecast skill. That sort of range plus a probability doesn't really tell me exactly what type of season I should expect. They're also saying that there's a 30% probability that the season could be outside of that range also. Very, very unclear from my point of view anyway ...

It's the lack of Analogs. Do you go with the 30 storm season that we seem to be set up for and risk a bust on *only* 20 storms? we just dont know. What Noaa is trying to say with those numbers is this: "expect a rough season, dont be surprised if it is epic"
Quoting StormW:


You got that right...hell, at least split the difference and come up with a for sure 18.


I was going to say 18 as the low end, too! :D

Hey hey! Maybe you guys are starting to rub off on me! :)
2185. DEKRE
Quoting SouthALWX:

lol, so you ship out crap you wouldnt use yourself ... are you sure you arent part of america XD


Still better than US beer
2186. FIU2010
get ready ike, i see a very, very, very bad year in-store for the panhandle.
2187. P451
SSD

Yep Oz, looks to be a hum dinger. We may be a couple of busy bees!

NHC Latest Forecast 5/27/10
14-23 storms
NHC Confidence level: 10%
A season like the tracks of 2004 and the rate of storms in 2005 is possible.
Rate meaning the number, but I doubt we will get more then 25, possible but doubt it.
Quoting StormW:


You got that right...hell, at least split the difference and come up with a for sure 18.


You know what we should do as a group of bloggers?

1) We should vote on our top five bloggers.
2) Top five bloggers come up with their own consensus every season
3) Send a press release with "our" season prediction and explanation behind it.

I think that would be HUGE for us here.

And I think we'd probably be very accurate, too! :)
2192. hydrus
Quoting SLU:


Yeah it's as if they have very little confidence with their forecast skill. That sort of range plus a probability doesn't really tell me exactly what type of season I should expect. They're also saying that there's a 30% probability that the season could be outside of that range also. Very, very unclear from my point of view anyway ...
I am sure they know at the end of the season, the odds of them being wrong with there predictions are slim. It is similar to pick a number between 1 and 3. Chances are good you will guess the right number.
2193. JamesSA
Quoting Weather456:
14-23 is two different hurricane seasons all together. That is too wide.
Do you think politics might be involved? Perhaps there are some elements in the organization saying 'we can't put out such a high number because it will scare people and hurt tourism etc.' ... and others saying 'no, this is the data, we need to report it' ... and instead they end up putting out this cartoon with a crazy spread?
Hello all. I've been lurking here since the middle of the 2008 hurricane season, though I'd join in for this year.
Quoting Patrap:
Pity that the budget for flight is not higher

Cost is NEVER a consideration for a NOAA nor HH Hunter flight

Period
They are nonetheless allocated a certain amount of money each year that they can spend according to a schedule of their own choice. I expect the military is better off in this regard; science agencies have to scramble for every penny, especially in this age of budget crises in which the fools holding the purse strings think that the first things to go ought to be science and education. It doesn't help when they slit their own throats a la the Proenza debacle of a few years ago, and sabotage people who are trying to get them more.
Quoting hurricanejunky:
Yep Oz, looks to be a hum dinger. We may be a couple of busy bees!

NHC Latest Forecast 5/27/10


Can you be at 7 landfalling major category storms this year?

Can you do 11 landfalling storms of any category size this year?

I'm hoping you respond "yes!"...
hey guys it looks like 90-E is moving north or north-northeast and prob. soon northeast
14-23??? Do they have any respect or confidence for themselves? I'm rooting for either a 13 season or a 24 season now, it would be hilarious if such a wide range was WRONG. EDIT: Obviously the 13 would be much more preferred by all (minus a few)
I can understand the spread.. all conditions point to a high number season, on the same hand no point in crashing the market before the 1st storm is named. The outlook skill with these are low & the experience in calling an extreme hyper active season is even less. Personally I'd like to see less spread, but obviously confidence is low & NOAA is bound to a certain extent to protect US economic interests.
Quoting CycloneOz:


You know what we should do as a group of bloggers?

1) We should vote on our top five RESPECTED bloggers.
2) Top five bloggers come up with their own consensus every season
3) Send a press release with "our" season prediction and explanation behind it.

I think that would be HUGE for us here.

And I think we'd probably be very accurate, too! :)


corrected :)
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys it looks like 90-E is moving north or north-northeast and prob. soon northeast


Let's start calling 90-E "Lassie" because she formed while "Timmy was down in the well."
2202. Patrap
The Air Force Reserve is the Designated DoD resource for the Hurricane Hunters,at Biloxi.

Like I said,cost is never a obstacle to fly a storm.

Ever.


Quoting PcolaDan:


corrected :)


Thank you! You are correct... :)
Quoting Patrap:
The Air Force Reserve is the Designated DoD resource for the Hurricane Hunters,at Biloxi.

Like I said,cost is never a obstacle to fly a storm.

Ever.


I've read otherwise. But it really doesn't matter. They should be doing more investigations into cyclogenesis, and they aren't.
If they went with 18 which is the middle number of the spread, the Stock market would crash. Insurance companies would panic. Oil sitting in the gulf with those kind of numbers would spook investors and spike gas prices. And this blog would explode...
Quoting sarahjola:

so what is it? is the leak stopped or is it just a little less than before? obviously no one knows what they are talking about. why say it has been stopped and then say its just a little less?


Seems like they have never known what the pressure's were inside the well or BOP, or/and they have never been willing to release the info. I read somewhere, that unless they sample what it coming out of the well, they can't say for sure.

It seems they have stopped the oil from coming out of the ground, but have not capped anything. The drilling mud is now flowing out of the busted BOP, because its pressure it greater than the oil.

They have to get the cement down there now, and they can't user the normal methods to do it since the drilling risers are gone.

There are still a fews ways this could mess up. The BOP valves that are partially closed could break open, the entire BOP could fail, they could lose drilling mud pressure, or the cementing process could fail. I am praying that none of this happens, but this is not a done deal.
2207. Patrap
U betcha..

We have a Hurricane Hunter featured blogger here on wu..one can ask him anything HH related and he will answer your inquiries Im sure


I've read otherwise.


Id like to see where that was read,if possible.
0z, want to know my biggest worry this year? That it wont be a matter of IF you can intercept a major ... but a case of WHICH to intercept at a given time ... now thats scary to think about.
Quoting JamesSA:
Do you think politics might be involved? Perhaps there are some elements in the organization saying 'we can't put out such a high number because it will scare people and hurt tourism etc.' ... and others saying 'no, this is the data, we need to report it' ... and instead they end up putting out this cartoon with a crazy spread?


Not sure, I'm not a resident of the US.

Second, reporting high numbers and hurt tourism is the least of any body's problem. Storms devastating an unprepared entire country's economy is of much more importance that if Royal Caribbean reported 10, 000 less passengers this summer. Report the facts and people will decide how to use those facts.
Quoting Patrap:
The Air Force Reserve is the Designated DoD resource for the Hurricane Hunters,at Biloxi.

Like I said,cost is never a obstacle to fly a storm.

Ever.




Thats because tax payers money is limitless!
Quoting RitaEvac:
If they went with 18 which is the middle number of the spread, the Stock market would crash. Insurance companies would panic. Oil sitting in the gulf with those kind of numbers would spook investors and spike gas prices. And this blog would explode...


!Cry Havoc! and release the hounds! :)
Quoting SouthALWX:
0z, want to know my biggest worry this year? That it wont be a matter of IF you can intercept a major ... but a case of WHICH to intercept at a given time ... now thats scary to think about.


I'll always go for the one that's zeroing in on a major metropolitan area.
Quoting RitaEvac:
If they went with 18 which is the middle number of the spread, the Stock market would crash. Insurance companies would panic. Oil sitting in the gulf with those kind of numbers would spook investors and spike gas prices. And this blog would explode...


Speculation is what drives booms and recessions.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Can you be at 7 landfalling major category storms this year?

Can you do 11 landfalling storms of any category size this year?

I'm hoping you respond "yes!"...


Of course the answer is YES...BUT...there's always a BUT...where these storms make landfall will dictate how quickly funding becomes a factor...
2216. Patrap
Quoting RitaEvac:


Thats because tax payers money is limitless!


Guess you've never seen a DOD Budget request then,..LOL
Quoting Patrap:


U should take your own advice.
Period.

LOL
just a big bully huh
Has anybody considered the fact that if we have more then normal intense hurricanes they may use up some of the energy available for other storms to form.This I believe is the reason for the spread. More storms maybe good. Its the ace that is incredible to me. Two or three Andrews should be enough death and destruction for everyone.Like Pat said the numbers aren't important. Get prepared because I wouldn't count on the government these days. They look like they got there hands full troops all over the world,if you think about it we are in the middle of more they we can handle.IMO
CNN now
Quoting CycloneOz:


I'll always go for the one that's zeroing in on a major metropolitan area.


And if it's a choice between two metropolitan areas, then:

1) Which one is closer to me?
2) Which one will have the "bigger" storm hit it?
3) Which one has multiple Outback SteakHouse restaurants.
2222. JamesSA
Quoting RitaEvac:
If they went with 18 which is the middle number of the spread, the Stock market would crash. Insurance companies would panic. Oil sitting in the gulf with those kind of numbers would spook investors and spike gas prices. And this blog would explode...
Forecasts shouldn't be politicized or influenced by market concerns. That is like a mayor refusing to issue an evacuation for a town in danger because it would hurt commerce. We might as well have the forecasts issued by The Office of Propaganda if that is to be the case.
2223. Patrap
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
just a big bully huh


One that can use periods too.

2224. hydrus
Quoting Skyepony:
I can understand the spread.. all conditions point to a high number season, on the same hand no point in crashing the market before the 1st storm is named. The outlook skill with these are low & the experience in calling an extreme hyper active season is even less. Personally I'd like to see less spread, but obviously confidence is low & NOAA is bound to a certain extent to protect US economic interests.
They would have maintained more credibility just by acknowledging it will be an above average year rather than releasing numbers like that. Like when you mentioned the stock market. There are other industries that flinch when these statistics are released.
Quoting Patrap:


Guess you've never seen a DOD Budget request then,..LOL


Nope, but I've seen what I write on my check every year to uncle sam
Quoting StormW:


Well, here is SST anomalies for 5/26/1998.


This is Today's



1998 produced 14 named storms

they look surprisingly similar. could be the best SST analog, though that high anomaly in the far east pacific in '98 isnt present and could be important.
2227. Ossqss
NOAA's new forecast tool has been leaked ,,, gheeze, :)



BTW, new blog
Quoting JamesSA:
Forecasts shouldn't be politicized or influenced by market concerns. That is like a mayor refusing to issue an evacuation for a town in danger because it would hurt commerce. We might as well have the forecasts issued by The Office of Propaganda if that is to be the case.


LOL..."Martin! If we close the beaches now, then our summer tourist season is over!" *Cue theme music...in B# please!*
Quoting Ossqss:
NOAA's new forecast tool has been leaked ,,, gheeze, :)



Hahaha! LOL! :D
Quoting Weather456:
14-23 is two different hurricane seasons all together. That is too wide.


After applying the 70% it's 9.8 (10) - 29.9 (30) storms... I'm not a betting man, but odds say they're going to be right with that range. Way to hedge your bets NHC.
new blog!
Quoting Ossqss:
NOAA's new forecast tool has been leaked ,,, gheeze, :)



LOL
Quoting SouthALWX:

lol, so you ship out crap you wouldnt use yourself ... are you sure you arent part of america XD

In Scotland they export all Johnny Walker Whiskey. and that is good stuff
the voice of reason:

so what is it? is the leak stopped or is it just a little less than before? obviously no one knows what they are talking about. why say it has been stopped and then say its just a little less?
Quoting Patrap:
U betcha..but Like I said..we have a Hurricane Hunter featured blogger here on wu..one can ask him anything HH related and he will answer your inquiries Im sure
If he's active, he probably won't say anything negative. My sources are a couple of books that interviewed government hurricane researchers off the official record and the blogs of retired mets -- in other words, people who don't have to worry about retaliation or non-promotion for making complaints.

I'm not debating this any further. If you are formerly affiliated with the U.S. government and took it as a bash of some entity within it, it is not -- it's a bash of those non-scientists in Washington who control the money.
Alex in 2 days.

well thier is one who has been on this blog for awhile who constantly post lengthy links, and trys to constantly joke with a fake accent.He also trys to monopolize the blog and insult anyone who disagrees with him. I never put anyone on ignore but i did him.Once i put him on ignore i was able to scan back through posts of quality bloggers like levi, 456,drak,23 and reed, floodman and ike. And like ike i thank there will be a lot gone this year just wish the blog admins would quit playing favorites on a couple one in paticular who uses the word pal lol.And storm w how could i forget you you do a great job.Have a nice day and God Bless.
2238. divdog
Quoting CycloneOz:


Hahaha! LOL! :D
What really matters is what actually happens not some forecast. Don't rely so much on the numbers, wait and respond when a storm affects you.
2239. mtobis
I disagree on a couple of points. See here.

Is the albedo of oil really lower than that of water? And wouldn't suppressed evaporation suppress hurricanes?
2240. divdog
Quoting RitaEvac:
If they went with 18 which is the middle number of the spread, the Stock market would crash. Insurance companies would panic. Oil sitting in the gulf with those kind of numbers would spook investors and spike gas prices. And this blog would explode...
I work in the industry and the stock market is not going to crash based on some forecast that may or may not come true.
should not have been made in the first place!