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What is Emily doing?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:07 PM GMT on July 18, 2005

Posted: 8:50pm EDT Tue July 19
============================
OK, I give up trying to predict what Emily is going to do, I'm just going to watch. Brownsville 248 nm mile range radar shows that Emily has essentially stalled the past 75 minutes. The 7:18pm recon flight showed that the central pressure had risen 6 mb to 948 mb, and saw no increase in flight level winds. With the storm sitting in place, lots of cold water is going to upwell beneath her and make it difficult to intensify further. In fact, the eye appears less distinct than two hours ago, and is filling with clouds. However, a very impressive circular Cirrus Dense Overcast has formed over the hurricane, and the overall banding and outflow still look impressive. Once the hurricane starts moving again away from its cold pool it kicked up underneath itself, it could start intensifying again. What's next, Emily??

As many of you noticed, we've had some problems with my blog disappearing today. The software for this is still in its experimental stages, and has been put to the test today! It seems we sometimes have problems when multiple comments are posted simultaneously. Bear with us, we'll try to keep things working while we craft a permanent fix. Expect to see many improvements in the blog interface over the next few weeks, the code is still under heavy development.

Dr. Jeff Masters

Posted: 4:50pm EDT Tue July 19
============================
I should know better than to doubt this hurricane's abilty to bounce back from adversity! Emily's pressure has dropped 13 mb the past 3 1/2 hours, and is now a 959 mb storm. The winds are still at 95 mph or so, and will take a few hours for Emily to adjust to the new pressure. The satellite presentation and pressure both point towards a Category 3 hurricane, and I imagine the surface winds will be close to 115 mph (minimal Category 3 status) by this evening. The track is doing some major wobbles as the storm reorganizes and deepens, but appears to have a more westward bend. The Hurricane Center is doing the proper conservative thing by advertising a continued WNW motion toward the Texas/Mexico border until the westward turn becomes more obvious.

The hurricane is impressive to watch on the Brownsville 248 nm mile range radar.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks again for the information. It sure is interesting to see what Emily and her like can do and go through as they travel across the miles. Is it just the reorganization that is making her wobble at this time or is it other winds and pressures?

AllanBurr
Jeff was watching the Brownsville radar and notice that the eye goes egg shap at times as it rotates. What is causing that to take place. It is impressive to see it spin and move for sure.

AllanBurr
Wow 942 mb. The poor, poor Meixcans in Emily's path! It will be a killer
Category 4 at landfall - you heard it here first.
Winds now 125 mph, but pressure up a bit... (945 mb)
I see that raindancer,winds and pressure may equalize so to speak..She's a major hurricane now.I feel for those in path.
anyone else having trouble with steve gregory's blog???I have tried to read it last 4 days,when I click it I get a page error everytime. It wont open.
I LOVE THIS GAME.WOW..WOW.....WOW
ya but they said that that 942 mb pressure was a mistake so the pressure didnt rise it just before they had a mistake in the pressure reading.
she really is crankin it up.she wants to go out with a bang
anyone else see a north jog in last few frames of radar and satellite loops,or is it just me?
its u
ty gold...im about blurry eyed after watching this thing so much...
HURRICANES RULE.....BUT I LOVE EM....WELL KINDA....
I agree, the NWS long range radar looks to show a north jog.
really.....i think ur hopein ...the NHC knows ....they are the BEST
yup The NHC did a great job with this one,they guessed at times when models did not agree,they used the models when they did agree,they stayed well within their cone.Evan today they are very close,the only thing is it did not quite slow down as much as they forcasted this AM..so it may make landfall just a little north of where they originally thought....but even with that..its only a few mile deviation..so within 10 miles with a 15 mile diameter eye....says BULLS EYE.
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 21:26:00 Z

WOW!!
being that where it will traverse mexico into a mountainous area the people there may get lucky.I say this because the high pressure to its north is killing the precipitaion inland so far. You are going to have orographic lifting as it is, but the less rain the better.
Is it just me - but looking at a few Brownsville Radars just now - it appears that the eye is stationary...
i see the eye and its sse of victoria texas and the eye has taken a jog south of due west slowly
no its crawling though
you know what i find very interesting pressures are falling in tampico north of emily...this could be a very long night if this gets on shore..i dont think it will make land i think its starting to turn to the ssw
you can clearly see a southward wobble by emily in the latest satellite pic...going to be a long night..
25. CRT
Looks like she's just sitting there for the last 1/2 hour. She's can't make her mind up. "Which way do I go, Which way do I go?"
I don't know but to me, looking at the Brownsville radar, it looks like she's going south just a tad. There isn't too much motion though that I can tell but it looks like it moved south a tad.
i think the change is starting to take place now..i expect a sw motion later on tonight...this could get interesting
the pressures are falling in tampico which is north of the storm.....hmmmm something is going on..
Isn't Tampico south of the storm??
yes sorry you are right i find that very interesting..
the eye of emily is about 1/4 inch further from brownsville then it was 3 hours ago...it has definitely took a south jog...
Been watching this for days. Just had to say something. Always thought Tampico was a small fishing village til I went there. Several hundred thousand people and a very modern port facility in the area.
Yes in the sattelite image the hurricane appears to jog SW BUT you'll notice on the radar it doesn't. Take a peek at the mountains of mexico, they jiggle the same direction as Emily.

:)
Where is the owner of this blogs when we need him
Yeah.. it's moving E-SE
the radar it looks stationary now......
NHC had it at lat.24.5 at 6:00..at7:00..they have 24.4..so the south componant is there.
I refuse to believe she is going to turn and go the other way. ISTORMTOP is right it will be the greatest upset of all time. Like the '69 Mets
its what i said all day the strong flow from the tropical storm in the pacific...it will effect emily.
Yeah.. itsn't moving
check the pressures in tampico and veracruz they are pretty low for being that far south of the storm...
Seems like many times they stop like this when the steering currents collapse. Then they often change direction. Still can't believe it would happen in this case.
ok,if it stays still long..do we start over?
you can see a definite jog towards the s/w on the satellite pic....very pronounced jog......
Stationary for about an hour now?? Curious.
i seen this stall and change direction happen so many times when a hurricane is going to hit mexico..there are very weak steering currents there and nothing to steer the storm in unless its traveling at 20mph...this one i dont think the high was strong enough to do the job here and that low is still se of veracruz on the water vapor charts...
NHC acknowledges a temporary stall.
from the new report...

Emily has temporarily stalled but is soon expected to resume a
motion toward the west or west-northwest near 10 mph ...15 km/hr.
This motion should bring the center of Emily near the northeastern
coast of Mexico by Wednesday morning.
NHC says stall is temporary and westward motion will resume at 10 mph
Question to all: I noticed during Ivan and Emily a large amount of outflow boundaries (mostly from collapsing feeder bands) during their periods of slow change or weakening trends. In the past, my longtime addiction to TWC and John Hope's tropical update showed this was rarely present in anything but tropical storms or unnamed depressions. It heralded death for the storm but this year its different. It also seemed to correlate with early season storms. I thought it was some weird lag of seasons in terms of upper atmospheric temps and moisture. My questions: Does anyone here see it too? Have any thesis been written on this? Lastly but perhaps most likely, is that sattelite imagery has improved so these gust fronts are now easily visible in all tropical systems at all times of the year. Can any of you fellow meteorological maniacs verify that?
on radar you can see the bands moving southward now..the eye however is just a drift to the south...this is only my opinion what i see....
04 SOX?
i think shes tired ....no hurricane has gotten this much attention
but it 05 ....2005
i just cant see that happening sure not on satellite pics...the storm has a definite drift towards the sw...on the radar its once again stationary but did jog south foe a few minutes..steering currents are not good here we are in for a long night..they also pushed the landfall back again..i still think the computers are out to lunch..they are not picking up the low over the southern yucatan which is clearly visible on satellite imagery....i just cant see this happening..
slight drift to w or wnw beginning again??
So what does all this wishy washy movement mean? Where is she going? Anyone have a guess?
its not emily .its us ......its the internet.......lots of hurricanes have done this kinda stuff were watchin it to close ......we know when it farts.......
desert southwest eventually; and we could use a little of her moisture
its a south drift on radar you can see it better on the satellite pics....
looks like pressure still dropping at Brownsville
I think 60 miles S of Brownsville. RGV will have flooding problems. No rain to speak of in a month.
radar shows a pretty clear wnw drift now the way I see it.
Well, I haven't been looking at the radar and sat images all day.......and if I place my curser on the center, it looks like it is stationary.

Maybe y'all need some Visine?
yea she looks to be resuming course wnw to nw...she just wanted to make them squirm before she hit.
Just talked to a coworker in Reynosa MX., no rain, winds shifting a bit. More now from NE.
Its movin WNW
we just have to wait on emily
I think the turn toward Florida scenario, even though it would have given everybody something to talk about for years, just isn't going to happen
i still confirm and im sure the new coord will confirm a sw drift...
can we drop all these loosers in the eye .....they can give us an update every sec..........JUST LISTERN TO THE NHC ....THE REAL ONE
I agree with Goldenhine on this one, NHC has been pretty good on this one. Maybe a little N. of there track. Not much. No way FL.
i really like all the people here who actually take stormtop seriously...wake up, he's mocking you guys
hey u guys .emily has stalled
ok...I want a list of who gets dropped in eye,will pad the stats for my work on emily..
no stall

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/bro_N0R_lp.html
It's movin' WNW or NW!
yep ur right at 0000000000000.1MPH?
yep ur right very very slow...SORRY rod im kinda stupid
looks like about 8 to 10 mph WNW to me
ok 9:00 report is same as 8:00..so stationary as far as NHC says
AT 9 PM CDT... 0200Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES... 145 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 125
MILES... 200 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

ITS MOVING WNW ONE MORE TIME!!
where do you see a 9:00 CDT report?
84. SEFL
That's a NWS position estimate
AT 7 PM CDT... 0000Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES... 160 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 130
MILES... 215 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

--------------------------------------------------------
AT 8 PM CDT...0100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.1 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...
168 KM... EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND ABOUT 135 MILES... 215
KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
--------------------------------------------------------
AT 9 PM CDT... 0200Z... THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.2 WEST OR ABOUT
90 MILES... 145 KM EAST OF BAHIA ALGODONES MEXICO AND 125
MILES... 200 KM... SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
-------------------------------------------------------------
DO U WANT MORE? ITS MOVING WNW...OK?
86. SEFL
If you believe that, the storm has moved 15 miles in the last hour. At 8 cdt it was estimated at 105 miles east of Bahia Algodones
10 miles closer to Brownsville last hour...for those slower bloggers that means emily is moving 10 mph
on the NHC homepage below 8:00 report you will see 9:00 position report
outrocket...

ahh...now i got it...thanks
90. SEFL
And it went east for 5 miles between 7 and 8!!!
...LOL ok can i help it if the NHC home page says 9:00 then when you click it you get 7:00 report...I dont think so
the NHC just likes to toy with us like that
I am not obtaining the reports from the NHC's webpage...

Im connected to a server of Ohio State University.

All data all of NHC's forecasts of all storm of Pacific and atlantic, includind real time data form hurricane hunters are published before than the NHC website.
rodrigo0, you have a link?
>>>Posted By: richandcoup at 1:43 AM GMT on July 20, 2005.

i really like all the people here who actually take stormtop seriously...wake up, he's mocking you guys<<<


You beat me to it, I don't think someone with supposedly 30 years of experience could be so way off everytime.
good rod but really no need in being so snappy with folks...people are human even you. So far you have been testy with all here,even about ones who used humor,well my friend I can tell you have been through no hurricane or the eye wall of a cat 3...BECAUSE YOU HAVE NO HUMOR..and for people facing the eye of any beast like this,you better have a sense of humor or you will go slap nuts dealing with the aftermath...those who not only study but LIVED it know.
944mb/108kt fltlvl NE quad, 15m eye @ 0221z
I was really hoping for some much needed rain out of this thing, but so far we haven't gotten much at all.
Ditto to outrocket, Hurricanes are not a joke. Aftermath stays long after CNN & TWC leaves.
100. deb1
Outrocket, the NHC site shows a 9pm report and when you click on it you get the 9pm report.
thanks,deb1...for awile ther you got 7...
This is the link
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/?C=M;O=D

Enjoy.. u will have data in the same time that Miami!!! and before nothing!
Kinda nice graphic at http://www.stormtrack.org/special/
Radar, forecast/model points and wind reports all in one.
MAX FL WIND 108 KT NE QUAD 01:52:40 Z

ITS WEAKENING!
but have 944MB... 4MB low
Mobile,I wish someone would write a book on what happens after the press leaves. That's the side of the hurricane people relly lack knowledge in. I am still fill holes with concrete in my yard to keep from sinking and that damage is from FREDERIC in 1979.My pwer line still hangs in a tree from Ivan,they put it there as temp. fix but have not had time to make final.Dealing with insurance comapanys is unreal,they call you a lier seeing the damage done...believe me the aftermath is far worse than the storm.
Pressure was down 4mb since the 0000z advisory though.
AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EMILY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 96.4 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES... 180 KM... SOUTHEAST OF MATAMOROS MEXICO AND ABOUT 120
MILES... 190 KM...SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.
Emily is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph
...11 km/hr.
For those that missed my post due to cyberspace eating my post along with others..

(NOTE THIS IS A OT JOKE POST)

Ways to spice up the weather channel hurricane reporting:

* Hire ex-WWF stars to do the on location hurricane coverage
"..YEAAA that is a mean cat5 powerbomb, but I am going to lay the smackdown for my fans.."

* Hurricane Golf - I like to see Tiger make par on that course

* Real Fear Factor
".. For $5000 all you have to do is drive this Yugo down this flooded wind blown street.."

* Hurricane Strippers - as the hurricane rises thur the scale the clothes come off

* Hurricane Sailboating

* Hurricane Shopping Center Demolition Debry (race in grocery carts looking for the items on your emergecy supply list)

Last but not least

* Hurricane Sky Surfing - for those people look for the most extereme sport
rod..thanks for the link...trying now to decide which one of the links to click>>??
URNT12.KNHC = VORTEX DATA MESSAGE w/ LATEST OF THE EYE
oriondarkwood too bad cyberspace didn't eat this post like it did the first one but I guess I wouldn't want cyberspace to be sick
last couple radar frames are interesting...is that distoartion or dry air?

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/bro_N0R_lp.html
is it just me or does it look on the IR that the storm is becoming more compact as it gets closer to shore...like the the dry air is squeezing her like a sponge.
thanks rod
Outrocket,
Trees still not cut from Ivan. We didnt even get the bad hit! 8 days no power. Fredrick was 3 days, go figure. I think South Dakota does not look bad in September.
new discussion is up
emily is stationary......she is looking pretty good from the latest radar fix..
now that would be interesting since i know people that live down there during the winter mounths and stay north for the summer...snowbirds....so it would be funny if people down there did the opposite to escape the storms...during sep. and oct. Witch is scary when you think that its only July and we have two Cat 4's form
would we be stormbirds,beachbirds.....hmmmm
StormTop whats going to happen with Emily now? on 11pm advisory they said she's back moving to the wnw
if you look at the last coord emily is moving sw sloly like crawling...all you have to do is check the last 2 fixes...
124. deb1
Rodrigo0, is it getting weaker? The NHC (10pm CDT advisory)are saying it has sustained winds of 125mph and are still forecasting it to strengthen. Which seems in line with the lower pressure.
i disagree i see no movement right now...at least not from the radar...
Storm birds would probably be the title if that did start happening.
127. deb1
Which radar are you looking at, Stormtop? The Brownsville radar, which is updating every five minutes, shows Emily chugging along WNW at quite a rate. Maybe only 7 to 10 mile per hour, but according to their radar she isn't sitting still.
StormTop without you commiting to anything crazy do you still think that the potential is there for Emily to move NE. The local weather here in Alabama said the High is getting weaker and is losing its grip with an increase of afternoon Tstorms from an approaching front to the north of us. I know this will probably stir something up but I believe what you say is possible.
they are also now using a new reference point and the pressures continue to fall in tampico and veracruz well south of the storm...in the water vapor chart a low shows up very well over the southern yucatan combined with the strong flow off the pacific is giving my girl a hard time tonight...the nhc keeps pushig the landfall time back farther and thats not good...i think you are looking at a cat 3 for a few days hanging aroung the gulf where the steering currents are very weak nothing to drive her inland...the high sure went to lunch because the pressures are falling in the central gulf and southern gulf...it looks like a big problem for thr nhc....emily will give them hell like i predicted all day long....look for that sw motion to continue....
RichandCoup - 10 mph only if on a dead heading toward Brownsville. Vector math and all that. It could be moving at 15 mph, but only getting closer to Brownsville at 8 mph.
Stormtop, you keep me hitting F5 all day long on this blog...
deb i see no motion at all on the brownsville radar...i did see a sw motion on the satellite loops i was looking at....the enviroment aroung emily is very hostile tonight and she could do exactly what i said before go south and end up in the bay of campecehe and just sit there for a day before moving northward...especially with that front coming into ark oklahoma and tenn....another trough will come down and that might be what pushes emily north...she will sit basically stationary tonight will not go into mexico....thats my take on it right now and it hasnt changed all day....2 more things were added tothe equation....this could be our storm in a couple of days...mexico always does this to us i seen this happen so many times....
Not as many times as we've heard you say how many times you've seen this happen so many times... but we shall see. ;)
THE
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 122 KT AT 2126Z REMAINS THE MAXIMUM OBSERVED
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS... AND 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGED FROM 100 TO 115 KT... SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
110 KT.

ITS THE SAME...
ITS THE SAME 'CAUSE RADAR PRESENTATION IS EXCELENT AND DVORAK INTENSITY IS 100KT.

PREASURE DONT RULEZ FOR THIS TIME.
i just looked at the strike map on here and now it appears to me that corpus is shown in the danger zone..shows a deep purple on the graphics...am i reading this thing correctly? and should i be worried because this thing is stalled?
Hey guys... to lighten things up a bit... I think I have a good idea why Emily has stalled for the moment. You see, it's not really a "stall" in the normal sense. She's just checking her face, not too unlike that of most ladies, before making an "entrance". She has to make sure her hair is just "so", and her lipstick is on straight. Remember, she's had a long journey, with only one real "pit stop" in the Yucatan. This could take a while. She'll make a showing, though. On HER schedule, not ours. ;) Y'all have a nice night, and keep the south Texas coast line people in your prayers, that no one is killed.
Dry air is punching through the eyewall as evident on Brownsville radar. It will probably not get to CAT 4 now.
thats what i think isobar ......i think this is logical with the conditions going on in the atmosphere around the storm right now...that tropical storm is causing a very srtong flow off the pacific shooting it right at emily plus the mountains another big factor...emily needs the high to strengthen and push her tail in ...you should be able to see now the high is no high its weak and getting weaker...
emilys eye on satellite loops have become more pronounced....she is one bad lady..
is she moving still northwest? or more west?
Sorry for your loss. Emily just won't give up.
that is terrible news zx...my sympathy goes out to you.
Best friends cannot be replaced but always remembered.
This storm might take your mind of it for a bit. Ill say a prayer.
sorry zx21 sorry about your friend but know that everything happens for a reason and that he's in a good place where no suffering or anything bad is or can happen.
zx21 I am sorry..
sorry for your loss zx...emilys teasing the shoar..
emily is stalled on radar and satellite loops...i see no movement..emily enjoying the attention she is getting tonight...i hope she doesnt decide to visit bourbon street......a little humor

Conditions at 42045 as of
(8:39 pm CDT on 07/19/2005)
0139 GMT on 07/20/2005:
Note: This report is more than two hours old
Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 80 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 27.2 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 42.7 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.77 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 88.0 F
no hourly report ...LOL ya think emily ate texas A&Ms bouy...??
Just a side note the NHC is more interested in the wave over Puerto Rico. Conditions may become favorable for something to develop in a couple of days as it moves to the WNW toward south Florida. Not to take away anything from Emily.
i think she already visited bourbon street with all that wobbling around.
I'm sorry to hear about your best friends passing....Emily has been keeping us all guessing tonight so she will certainly help you take your mind off it for now.....
ok StormTop question? is it more likely for Emily to move into Mexico or for Emily to follow your prediction? which one has the greater chance of happening?
Hey I noticed that sometimed the page wont refresh fast, does anyone know why?
STADIUM EFFECT VISIBLE IN MOONLIGHT

That must be really beautiful.

Wild why would you even ask Storm that question? The answer is obvious.

I do give him credit, however, as emily did technically stall.. although for the reason Steve gave earlier.. not for the reason Storm gave initially.

Emily appears steady state. Pressure is oscillating right around 945 mb. I'd love to see that stadium effect though.
Emily isn't track?

http://photos1.blogger.com/blogger/7/504/1600/radar2245.jpg
she seems to be finally making that westerly jog.....
160. deb1
Stormtop, for a storm that's 'not moving', according to you, it has certainly shifted a bit to the west in the last hour or so.
ok im going to say this again my prediction is emily will give the nhc fits...i think my prediction not the nhc because of all the factors i spoke about...i am sticking to my forecast...i still respect the nhc and by no means am i trying to downgrade them..they have done great work....
so stormstop, what is your prediction again, I have been coming in and out of this blog
Yes Emily did stall a couple hours ago. Shes on the move again now though, as the NHC predicted.
deb i dont know i have been watching it and the eye is still due south of victoria texas...if any movement at all a slight nudge to the south......its 1/4 inches further south from brownsville since this afternoon..im talking about the eye...
brandon please scroll up about 20 posts you will see it.......
ITS MOVIN' WSW?
don't say that rodrigo you'll be proving StormTop right
I just looked at the one hour loop from Brownsville's radar. Definitely moving west. There may have been a bit of a wobble south.. but overall, Emily is moving west again.
you know raindancer made the prediction that she would come ashore at 2:00 o'clock tonight and i think he will be right...as well as the location of primer cruz....
deb look at your radar and reference victoria texas wait 30 minutes and tell me if its moving...i have seen a nudge towards the south earlier in the last few hours i see no movement...
thanks Dragoon for clarifying
he made this prediction at noon so if that comes true then i will have to give him kudoes the next time i see him on this site......
Storm because of the large amount of geographical distance a radar covers, you cannot "reference" a point and determine storm movement from that. It's not that simple.

Also, you need to learn to clarify between wobbles of the eye due to convective reorganization and actual movements to the south. What you saw was only a wobble, and nothing more.
174. deb1
Stormtop, I am watching the eye, which not only is moving west but looks to be tracking slightly south again. If Emily does make land SW of where it currently is, I hope it's not far enough south to affect Tampico. One city's relief (Brownsville.Matamoros) could be another city's misery.
The eye is very impressive on infrared imagery at the moment.
ITS MOVIN WSW
what is there an echo in here
deb i made that statement tonight the pressures were falling in tampico and veracruz....i said it would be a sw movement and and more of a ssw later on and get down in the bay of campeche where they have that strong low you can see on water vapor charts clearly affecting emily......
StormTop looks like he is right again. Guess we will know in the morning. Definetly moving to the South and West.
it sure is dragoon very pronounced eye.....looking healthy
well im going to sleep i know emily will be there in the morning...we will see what happens...good night guys its been fun...
Good Night. Will also see in morning.
929
URNT14 KNHC 200420
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
AF302 2105A EMILY OB 16
SECONDARY WIND MAXIMUM NORTHWEST OF EYE -- 103KTS AT 25.0N 97.0W
Yes, Emily does appear to be moving WSW towards the coast now -- leaving my satellite floater up so can check it out overnight just in case I wake up in the middle of the night to see when/if she makes landfall... this is beyond obsession watching what Emily will do next...

The tropical wave in the Eastern Carribean looks interesting -- flaring up at the moment. NHC says conditions could become favorable in next couple of days as it moves West at 15-20mph... so may be something else to keep us busy if Emily does finally move inland...
yes, we can call it Franklin Furter if it develops and gets named... ;)
Hey Y'all been away working for the past 7 hours and trying to read all the blogs - So....Emily is going to the border?
No rain here in Houston - humid as hell - According to Galveston people, they won't let the surfers in the Gulf starting a.m.
Franklin going to Florida??? LOL We've had enough excitement in Texas - I guess for every five hurricanes they get, they get time for one off - maybe this wave won't develop
Am I the only one here?
EmmyRose I live in the Houston area too (North side)... it IS humid -- but Emily gave us a beautiful sunset with the fringe edges of the spiral banding high clouds from her outflow... don't know if you were out to see it but it was nice despite the humidity...

Yes, it would appear that Emily may be finished with her makeup and is making her way inland now but in a WSW direction -- Brownsville radar almost looks like she is moving SSW now -- could STORMTOP be right? Time will tell and will check it out in the morning with my coffee as I have been doing daily since she was born...
AND NOW HAS STALLED... !
MAX FL WIND 113 KT NW QUAD 03:34:50 Z
SIGNS OF OUTER EYEWALL FORMING, APPROXIMATELY 30NM IN DIAMETER
Hey cyclon - I'm on the southwest side of Houston. Yes the sky was awesome - I didn't get to see the full sunset I was inside my theatre - but, the sky tonight with the white billowing clouds against the darkness is cool - I hope we get some rain. Thought StormTop said it would come closer to Houston maybe I didn't read all the blogs tonight. But I like his predications -
Where does it say it stalled Rodrigo?
Yes shes taking quite a southwest wobble.

With that high of a wind in the NW quadrant, it wouldn't surprise me if Emily is bumped to a Cat 4 soon.. although with an outer eyewall forming.. we can only HOPE that Emily begins an eyewall replacement cycle just before landfall and weakens substantially.
Last few frames of Brownsville radar I could almost convince myselt that it is paralleing the coast heading south. Anyone else see this, or do I need to up my meds?
Hey dragoon whats going on with Emily now,I took a break, have to get some studying in sometime ;)
NHC Midnight advisory position is indeed SW of the 11:00PM update -- they noted that she is wobbling her way to the coast in a general WNW direction... so she's dancing her way in on a slow wobble but expected to keep on in a general WNW direction (if you smooth out the wobbles)...
But it's not coming to Houston RIGHT STORMTOP?????
No you're seeing what we're all seeing WatchingThisOne. The storm is taking a big southwest wobble. Any more continuity and it may have to be called the initial motion.

Brandon Emily is basically steady state.. but an outer eyewall is forming.. and hopefully Emily will continue to stall and move southwest until it forces the inner eyewall to break up. That would result in (hopefully) a much weaker Emily at landfall.
Yes EmmyRose we could definitely use the rain but doesn't look like it at this point -- it's frustrating seeing the edges of those feeder bands offshore on radar watching them go from East to West knowing they won't make it up here to give us a good soaking...
203. deb1
Latest advisory from NHC still advises a WNW heading. Doesn't look that way on the radar. Will be interesting to see if this is a wobble or a change in general direction. I see the winds are picking up in Matamoros/Brownsville.
Dragoon, what I am thinking is that Emily no longer has the forward momentum needed to throw herself on the mountains. Previously when she was clipping along at 18-20 mph, no problem, eye on shore, drags storm into mountains, storm dissipates.

Now I think those mountains are acting like a ridge - preventing forward progress and driving Emily in a more southerly direction. FWIW, probably zippo.
Well they are indeed becoming a force that is delaying landfall.. but the ridge to the north is still the dominating factor.. and it will push Emily onshore. It's just taking longer than they expected. This actually bodes well in some ways for the Mexican coastline.. they will receive more rain at the coast where those feeder bands are pounding relentlessly.. but the more time Emily spends out there, the greater the chances of it seeing an eyewall replacement cycle.. thus weakening it and making it a bit less potent than it is right now..

Thats what I'm hoping for.
I'm posting the latest for those that didn't get this -

EYE OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WOBBLING TOWARD THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT
MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM
SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO LA CRUZ AND A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF LA CRUZ TO CABO ROJO.

A HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE OR
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...RESPECTIVELY...ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
Brownsville radar seems to indicate she's on the South side of another wobble as forward progress towards the coast has stalled again...

I agree that Emily does not have the momentum now that she did when she was cruising at 18-20mph. She's caught in a rut in the steering currents and the Mountains aren't making it easy for her to just keep barreling on West so she is just meandering slowly now until the strongest player pushes her in one direction or another (probably the high pressure ridge over the SE will eventually win if it is strong enough). Eugene must also be having some kind of impact as well. The longer she hangs around, the more opportunity for steering currents to change though...
Well maybe StormTop is correct. I do believe he said that the currents off the Mexico coast is weak -
Well night y'all - prayers to the people off the Tex/Mex coast this evening -
good night all -- will check in a.m. to see if she made landfall. Looks like she is slowly getting there and will continue to wobble her way westward and probably make landfall sometime tomorrow morning in NE Mexico...
Check out on the current GOES12 infrared loops. Finally she is seeming to budge again. THe last wobble (from 5:45 - 6:15 UTC) was to the NW.
Brownsville radar also clearly shows a W-NW track from 1:06 CDT-1:28 CDT. She's made up her mind and comin ashore, looks like
Infrared showing SE quadrant intensification, she seems to be stretching to try to make strong CAT 3/weak CAT 4 boundary
ok,just woke uo,see emily is still teasing all on the coast..
dang if this keeps up the Rio grande will be the world larget water slide...
cant seem to get the NHC home page to open,anyone else having that problem?
Yep, can't get the NHC homepage to load either...
Server is down!
ditto wont work for me either. Looks like Emily is finally coming onshore and from what I've heard not a particular heavily populated area so good news on that front even if the winds are still 125 mph. I must tip my hat to the NHC, they have gotten the track pretty much on the money from the get go.
WTNT65 KNHC 201140
TCUAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
640 AM CDT TUE JUL 20 2005

...EMILY MOVES INLAND ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVCE WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR IN
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF THE EYE OF MAJOR
HURRICANE EMILY MADE LANDFALL AT APPROXIMATELY 635 AM CDT THIS
MORNING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTH
OF BOCA MADRE. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 35 MILES ...55 KM...EAST OF SAN
FERNANDO MEXICO...AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM... SOUTH OF
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

FORECASTER STEWART
..guess emily has disturbed them so much,they needed the memory in the server to crunch numbers....LOL
Emily is over water right now!... Still dont take ground...
223. deb1
Couldn't get the NHC site to open but the Brownsville radar has a pretty good show. The 0900Z forecast is also available on http://hurricane.terrapin.com/
I see a flooded rio grande....the illeagal aliens trying to slip in the U.S. over the rio grande last night,may be still on the water slide,next stop..gulf of Mexico...
All advisories...

CLIC HERE...

Refresh for updates
http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/advisories/?C=M;O=D
That area sure dont need a slow moving hurricane,they got one though..
The latest radar suggests a small jog to the north as the eyewall reached landfall
229. deb1
Rodrigo0, thanks for the link.
150
WTNT55 KNHC 201148
TCEAT5
HURRICANE EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
7 AM CDT WED JUL 20 2005

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM EAST OF SAN FERNANDO
MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

FORECASTER STEWART

$$
thats normal...they always hook when 1/2 the eyewall slows down due to friction of land...the other 1/2 hooks around...
231. deb1
How much rain is being dumped where it came ashore? I see Brownsville has 59mph winds but only light rain, according to their current weather update.
I wonder how exposed is the Bay to the north? I think it's called Laguna Madre. Could be significant flooding there.
NHC server back up...Fredwx...if the rain keeps up we may have 8 seas instead of 7...newest addition Laguna Madre Sea..
234. SEFL
one of the NWS data bouys has floated up to South Padre Island
I know Texas A&Ms bouy stopped reporting at 9pm cdt last night....wonder if its that one...LOL
lol floated up on the beach? that hurricane must have been very violent over open water is also notably closer then before when i went to bed moving on shore now.
Once the eye moves inland the SE-S wind will pile up water within the Bay
they were having 26 ft seas north of the storm...see if you can find out the station number on the bouy...
With 125mph winds the Max waves could be as high as 38ft!
Jedkins I dont know if it was that violent - after all it's an Aggie buoy LOL
What's the lastest?
the latest is..the rio grande is now the worlds longest water slide..
Thanks Outrocket - they do need the water down that way
I can't open the NHC either
correct me if I'm wrong..but the soil there dont hold much water..almost an arid climate...so when it rains like it has...it floods big time and fast..?
Prediction

Posted By: oriondarkwood at 2:02 PM EDT on July 17, 2005.

Paraphased
"Emily will slam into Mexico around Tampico as a cat2 storm"

Actual

AT 7 AM CDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF MAJOR HURRICANE EMILY WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 97.6 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM EAST OF SAN FERNANDO
MEXICO AND ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

I was off by about 20 MPH on power and it hit roughly 80 - 120 miles north of where I said. Not my best but still close enough I say it was a good prediction. Seems I am 3 for 3 so far this season ie:

1 - getting Dennis within 20 miles
2 - getting the first hit of Emily within 60 miles
3 - getting the second hit of Emily within 80 miles

Specially since NOAA has a 200 mile cone of error if I am not mistaken
goodmorning guys and gals...i just updated the browns radar and emilys sw eyewall is still off shore..im showing very little movement right now...they are going to have real trouble getting this puppy on shore...i wont feel good until its 100 miles inland...
i hope she dont do the loop those mountains and that weak ridge tell the story right now...
still having trouble with the NHC site,I can open it now,but the page dont seem to be updated....wonder how the area SE of bahama's is doing and the area in SW carib.??
i see a slow movement to the west right now...
Nice job oriondarkwood.
you are not done with emily yet trust me she still is a threat...by no means is this over....
From the Tropical Weather Outlook
....A tropical wave over the eastern Caribbean is producing cloudiness and showers over Hispaniola...Puerto Rico...and the Leeward Islands. Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation... but could become slightly more favorable during the next day or two as this system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
thanks fredwx
Rhindle,

Thanks

___________________________________

Stormtop,

If you are directing your last message at me, I am quite aware the threat is far from over. I was merely stating my prediction vs actual on locations where the eye of the hurricane was hitting. I know that NE Mex/SE TX is still far from being out of the woods on this one
From the NWS Tropical Discussion
Caribbean...
cut-off upper low in the W Caribbean W of Jamaica near 19n81w is interacting with a tropical wave producing a large area of convection/shower activity N of 16n between 61w-72w. The upper low has enough dry air to produce fairly benign weather over the central Caribbean N of 17n from 74w-83w including Jamaica and parts of Cuba. Farther SW...a tropical squall line with scattered/numerous strong convection continues to expand now covering the area SW of line from Colombia near 11n74w to N of Honduras near 18n86w including Panama and Costa Rica. Deep
tropical moisture will remain established over this area to maintain scattered convection for remainder of the work week.
Landfall has occured and oriondarkwood's prediction 3 days ago was pretty good that's all. Now on to predicting what she will do after landfall! Still a few more chapters to go in this story..
Pretty close too on the preds. Any word on flooding?

Posted By: rodrigo0 at 9:06 AM GMT on July 18, 2005.
Next stop: Bahia Algodones, Tamalipas on the wed morning.
Report As: Obscene | Spam

Posted By: EZMonster at 9:41 AM GMT on July 18, 2005.
I'm thinking about the same, maybe just slightly north of that, but still pretty well south of Matamoros. A strong CAT3 or, if it slows a bit, weak CAT4 (oxymoron) at next landfall. She is really booking.


EZMonster,

No but I assume it will be alot since the mountians will rip all the power and rain out of Emily. Unless I am very mistaken I don't think thier is going to be anything of Emily past the next couple of days (if that). But they (NWS) are forecasting 15 inches for the mountian regions (read as heavy flooding and mudslides). SE Texas will get a few inches but according the NWS they are in a bit of a dry spell so they should be able to handle it (but still will be flooding because of the rate it will be coming down)
EZMonster,

Also congrats on your close prediction. But its still a long season to go. We are doing good, but I like to see how our predictions hold out for a entire season. Personally mine have been slipping so I think I may miss the first one. Maybe we can set up a prediction contest (no money just props and bragging rights) with rules and such.
i actually did predict a landfall about 75-100 miles south of brownsville yesterday morining and look,I was pretty darn good this time but I WILL NOT BRAG,because Icould just as easily gotten it wrong and I said windspeed would be 120 mph very close considering windspeed is so hard to predict,well I dought i will be that accurate with the next storm,but we'll see,purty darn good for my age y'all.
but all of our predictions could be helpful too people cuase if theres enough if one of is way off another could be very close or right on target.
well I going to workout for a while and git some things done,well by now y'all