WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

What Do Skyscrapers, Thundersnow, and Jim Cantore Have in Common?

By: Bob Henson 6:40 PM GMT on May 01, 2015

Thundersnow is a rare enough event to get even veteran meteorologists like The Weather Channel’s Jim Cantore excited, as one can tell by the popular clips of Cantore reacting to several thundersnow events this past winter in Massachusetts. It’s estimated that less than 1% of all U.S. lightning flashes in the winter are associated with snow. Thundersnow’s rarity, and the fact that it’s often accompanied by poor visibility, has made it tough for researchers to learn much about it. However, some important leaps of progress have occurred in the last few years. Perhaps the most surprising insight: many cloud-to-ground lightning strikes observed in thundersnow are actually “ground-to-cloud” strikes, initiated by skyscrapers, wind turbines, and other tall objects.


Figure 1. Jim Cantore reports from Plymouth, Massachusetts, early on February 15, 2015, during a lightning-studded snowstorm. Image credit: The Weather Channel.


A study published last year in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres examined the blizzard of February 1-2, 2011, which dropped more than a foot of windblown snow from Oklahoma to Michigan and trapped hundreds of vehicles along Chicago’s Lake Shore Drive. From his office in Rapid City, South Dakota, lightning researcher Tom Warner (ZTResearch) kept tabs on weather radar and lightning data during this storm, while also keeping an eye on The Weather Channel. As Warner recalled in an email: “I started noticing isolated lightning events in the snow sector, and when I plotted the coordinates of these events in Google Earth, they were consistently falling on objects such as tall radio/TV towers, tall buildings, and wind turbines. When the activity approached Chicago, I watched Jim Cantore live as he reacted to the lightning events. They were again grouped around the tallest buildings, which he was close to.”

After the storm, Warner scrutinized the data more closely with colleagues Timothy Lang (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center) and Walt Lyons (FMA Research/WeatherVideoHD.TV). Within the zone of heavy snowfall, they found a total of 282 cloud-to-ground and intracloud lightning flashes reported by the National Lightning Detection Network. The NLDN’s array of energy-sensing instruments can track the evolution of a lightning flash from millisecond to millisecond and pin down the flash’s location to within 500 meters. The researchers then mapped the NLDN data against the locations of communication towers, tall buildings, and other towering structures. Of the 282 flashes, they found that 72% occurred within 1 km of a tall object, and most of the other flashes were within 3 km of such an object. Many of the flashes reported in the Chicago area were distinctly clustered around particular structures, such as the Willis Tower and Trump Tower. At the same time, there was very little lightning detected over the nearby waters of Lake Michigan, although radar showed heavy snow falling there.


Figure 2. Lightning flashes detected by the National Lightning Detection Network in downtown Chicago during the February 1-2, 2011, blizzard. Tight clusters of negative flashes (-CGs and -ICs) are evident around the Willis Tower (1729 feet to its tip) and Trump International Hotel and Tower (1389 feet). These flashes are related to lightning channels that initially propagate up from the towers. No lightning was reported from the nearby John Hancock Center, even though it is in the same height range (1506 feet). Image credit: Journal of Geophysical Research/American Geophysical Union.


The two ways lightning can travel upward
As its name implies, cloud-to-ground lightning strikes (CGs) involve electrical charge being lowered from the base of a thunderstorm to an object at ground level along a zigzag channel called a leader. A much brighter flash, the return stroke, occurs after the leader connects to the ground, when charge accelerates downward through the leader but in an upward-cascading fashion (somewhat like a cleared traffic jam suddenly freeing cars further back along the highway). This process can repeat itself more than a dozen times in less than a second, with lightning photos often revealing a forked structure due to new leaders that branch outward and downward from the main lightning channel.

In a typical summer storm, cloud-to-ground lightning will often strike the tallest object around--an isolated tree or house, perhaps--but the data suggest something else was going on in Chicago. When an tower is at least several hundred feet tall, the odds increase that the initial leader will actually propagate from the top of the tower up to the cloud base, rather than the other way around. Just as a downward-propagating flash can branch out over its brief lifetime, striking several points on the ground, an upward-propagating flash can branch out as well (see Figure 3 below). This may “trick” the NLDN into reporting several closely clustered ICs or CGs (as in Figure 2) instead of a single, upward-pointing flash.

Upward lightning has been recognized since the 1930s, but high-speed cameras, sophisticated electric field meters, and 3-D lightning mapping tools have greatly advanced our ability to study it. Over the last few years, scientists have analyzed upward-directed lightning at several locations, including a set of 10 radio/TV towers near Rapid City. A total of 67 upward flashes originated from these towers from 2012 through 2014, when a field project called UPLIGHTS was carried out. More than a third of those flashes (25) occurred during the intense and destructive winter storm of October 2, 2013. Prior to UPLIGHTS, 81 upward flashes were observed in the Rapid City area from 2004 to 2010. Almost every upward flash in this period occurred less than half a second after a strong CG lowered positive charge to ground less than 30 miles away. It appears the positive CGs intensify the local electric field enough to generate a compensating upward flash from a nearby tower, where charge can be readily concentrated. This is referred to as lightning-triggered upward lightning (LTUL).


Figure 3. Upward lightning from four towers in Rapid City, SD. Tall structures appear to be the source of many of the lightning flashes observed during snowstorms. (Photo © Tom A. Warner, used with permission.)


Research in South Dakota and Alabama, as well as Japan and Austria, has identified a separate phenomenon called self-initiated upward lightning (SIUL), which almost always occurs during snowstorms with low cloud bases and low freezing levels. Warner, Lang, and Lyons weren’t able to deploy the same observing tools for the February 2011 storm that were used in UPLIGHTS, but a variety of evidence strongly implies that the lightning in this snowstorm was mostly in the form of SIULs. Interestingly, SIULs seem to require winds of at least 18 mph at the top of the tall object--except when that object is a spinning wind turbine. It appears that either the wind or the motion of the turbine can dispel a protective region of coronal discharge that would otherwise inhibit the upward development of a lightning flash. With that protection gone, the enhanced electric fields at the top of the tall structures appear to be enough to generate a leader that can make it up to the regions of opposite charge in the relatively low nimbostratus clouds.

Why don’t we get more “regular” lightning in thundersnow?
One possible reason that typical cloud-to-ground strikes aren’t very common in thundersnow is the relative weakness of the convection (the upward motion within the snow-producing cloud). Cloud-to-ground lightning originates from the intense pockets of charge that develop in a thunderstorm as snowflakes, ice pellets (graupel), and unfrozen water droplets jostle each other. Radar analysis for the February 1-2 storm showed that almost every flash of thundersnow occurred where the peak radar reflectivity was less than 30 dBZ, a value normally considered too low to produce lightning. However, in most cases there were higher reflectivities up to 30 miles upstream. This suggests that charge may have been generated within small convective cells, then carried downwind by droplets and crystals. Chris Schultz (NASA) and colleagues have carried out detailed analyses of several upward lightning flashes in the vicinity of Huntsville, Alabama. One such flash, which occurred on January 10, 2011, appears to have propagated from a TV transmission tower into a cloud that featured sloped layers of mixed ice crystals, ice pellets, and supercooled water. The researchers have similar data for flashes from tall towers near Washington, D.C., and Baltimore, Maryland. “Hopefully we can get back to these cases and understand the radar measurements better, to infer what is going on microphysically within the cloud at the time of the flash,” says Schultz.

In summary, tall towers don’t seem to be an absolute requirement for thundersnow, but they do appear to facilitate it in some ways that are only now becoming more apparent. The JGR study found that even objects less than 300 feet tall, such as cellphone towers and transmission lines in rural areas, can be enough to trigger thundersnow. Patrick Market (University of Missouri) is a longtime expert on the climatology of thundersnow. In an email, he told me: “The literature supports the occurrence of thundersnow before the advent of radio, so we know that the Earth's atmosphere is capable of the phenomenon all on its own. That said, the evidence that has been presented for taller structures influencing CG activity is compelling. The outstanding question that is difficult to quantify is: Are there more flashes in winter thunderstorms because of taller man-made structures?”

What's Up With This? Yes, this lightning does appear to be striking upward from a tall TV tower. Turns out that a small number of lightning strikes can be called "upward lightning" as the initial leaders are from the ground-to cloud. And these events appear also to occur during blizzards and may account for many reports of "thundersnow." (c) Tom Warner/WeatherVideoHD.TV. For more info see: https://www.weathervideohd.tv/wvhd.php?mod=search&sev=36677&sp=1

Posted by Weathervideohd.tv on Wednesday, April 29, 2015

Video 1. A classic “ground-to-cloud” lightning flash captured by high-speed photography (1000 frames per second) at Rapid City, South Dakota, on June 23, 2010. Bright, short-lived return strokes can be seen near the top at some distance from the main lightning channel. If embedded video does not load, you can find it at the WeatherVideoHT.TV Facebook page (posting date is April 29, 2015) or on their previewing site. Video credit: Tom A. Warner/WeatherVideoHD.TV.


Atlantic’s first named storm still possible next week
This morning’s round of model output continues to indicate the possibility of a named subtropical or tropical cyclone near the southeast U.S. coast toward the latter part of next week. See Jeff Masters’ post from earlier today for details. We’ll keep an eye on this potential system and will have an update by Monday at the latest.


This week’s WunderPoster: Fallstreak hole
The first phase of our WunderPoster series concludes today with a strange feature called a fallstreak hole, also known as a hole-punch cloud. These most often form when an airplane ascends or descends through a shallow layer of cloud made up of supercooled water droplets (droplets that remain liquid at temperatures well below freezing, due to a lack of particles on which to form ice). The local pressure drop just behind the aircraft’s propellors or wings can generate enough cooling to produce a batch of fast-growing ice crystals that consume moisture from the surrounding droplets, leaving a mid-cloud hole.

All of the 13 WunderPosters to date can be downloaded in formats suitable for posters or postcards. Watch this space in May for the release of a new set of WunderPosters inspired by photos contributed by the WU community.

Bob Henson

Lightning Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.
regarding enso models and the spring barrier....we hear that there are errors...but until today i never knew how bad.....thanx to the enso blog......the following is a graph...showing how bad they do even when only trying to predict the next quarter.....at best...when trying to predict the following three months of may, june and july...the models are only right just over 30 percent of the time....their error rate is higher each following month


Thanks for that Mr. Henson, really interesting.
From the previous blog:

That upper level disturbance, coming out of southern Texas, is the main player in this possible tropical or subtropical system. When this feature interacts with the old frontal boundary, hanging out in the Bahamas, that's when things will get interesting.


Thanks Bob. Great entry...
Fascinating stats Mr. Henson.............Thank You.
Thanks Bob, only heard thundersnow once in all my years here in central Canada, nice article...
I've repeated this many times so I'll make it "many + 1". During a coastal blizzard in Feb 1983, I encountered thundersnow in the Princeton NJ area. This was not just a rumble of thunder with isolated lightning flashes. THere were close flashes less than a minute apart for about 30 minutes and the interval between flash and thunder crash was less than a second. I was going to practice cross country skiing but it was not safe to be outside. The lightning was more frequent than in most summer storms and a large fraction of it was very close. The area was wooded without towers, just houses, trees and power lines (which were not struck). 1983 preceeded cell towers by a decade.
Here is the Java loop with the upper level low in the Northern Gulf (as noted below) swinging in the direction of the waters off the SE coast per CIMMS:   Loop - http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/mo vies/wg8vor1/wg8vor1java.html



So the bad news....the AC goes out.....the even worse news....it's the condenser unit.....1700 bucks plus labor....the great news....it's still under warranty....the bad news....not in stock....5 days out...the even worse news...temps in the 90's this weekend...oh well...we'll survive....
Quoting 8. Gearsts:




Yikes.
Quoting 11. ricderr:

So the bad news....the AC goes out.....the even worse news....it's the condenser unit.....1700 bucks plus labor....the great news....it's still under warranty....the bad news....not in stock....5 days out...the even worse news...temps in the 90's this weekend...oh well...we'll survive....


That truly bites ...I'll be sending cool/cold thoughts your way
Hope you have lots of fans
Quoting ricderr:
So the bad news....the AC goes out.....the even worse news....it's the condenser unit.....1700 bucks plus labor....the great news....it's still under warranty....the bad news....not in stock....5 days out...the even worse news...temps in the 90's this weekend...oh well...we'll survive....


I had a girl friend that lived in San Antonio with her family and they didn't have any AC. They would go the whole summer with no AC. It would be 95 degrees (heat index 105-110) inside their house.
I don't know how they did it, but they handled it just fine.
I felt like I was going to pass out after about 15 minutes. It was unbearable.
Good article, learned something, Thanks BOB......
Quoting 11. ricderr:

So the bad news....the AC goes out.....the even worse news....it's the condenser unit.....1700 bucks plus labor....the great news....it's still under warranty....the bad news....not in stock....5 days out...the even worse news...temps in the 90's this weekend...oh well...we'll survive....


Hope its not too humid.... just checked the humidity is real low, swamp cooler time(if ya had one) always good to have a backup plan.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
257 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIED PATTERN, WHICH HAS DELIVERED A
COMFORTABLE AIRMASS, WILL RELAX THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SECONDARY
DRY COLD FRONT, WITH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR, CLEARS THE
PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. H85 TEMPS DROPPING BELOW +10C FOR THE FIRST
TIME IN A WHILE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER, MAY SEND TEMPS BELOW
BLENDED/BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE, SO MAY FOLLOW A CONSENSUS MOS
APPROACH FOR MINS OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS AND PARKS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. ROBUST,
ALBEIT MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE, PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS TOMORROW, MAY KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE
EXTREME SOUTH. AS EASTERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS INTO
SUNDAY, PWATS WILL SLOWLY CREEP UP, BUT MAY NOT RISE ABOVE AN INCH
UNTIL MONDAY, AS THIS WEEKEND`S BOUNDARY STARTS TO COME BACK
NORTH. TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WETTEST DAY, BUT PERSISTENCE OF
HEAVY RAIN INTO NEXT WEEK WILL LARGELY DEPEND UPON THE TRACK OF
LOW PRESSURE WHICH MODELS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. BUT,
ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE PRESENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
THE HWO MENTION WILL CONTINUE. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING THIS WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY A PERSISTENT NE SWELL, THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE ELEVATED ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR AT
LEAST A FEW DAYS SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

.MARINE...
WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL TURN NORTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, POSSIBLY TO 20 KTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY. THUS SEAS MAY BECOME HAZARDOUS LATER SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A NORTHEASTERLY SWELL MAY PERSIST. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON MONDAY. THE
GULF AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS CAN EXPECT MANY SHOWERS AND STORMS
FOR TUESDAY.
Riverside, California (Airport)
Updated: 12:53 PM PDT on May 01, 2015
Clear
90 F
Clear
Humidity: 10%
Dew Point: 26 F
Wind: 5 mph Variable
Pressure: 29.83 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
87.8F here, Using the swamp cooler so far this year.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:
I've repeated this many times so I'll make it "many + 1". During a coastal blizzard in Feb 1983, I encountered thundersnow in the Princeton NJ area. This was not just a rumble of thunder with isolated lightning flashes. THere were close flashes less than a minute apart for about 30 minutes and the interval between flash and thunder crash was less than a second. I was going to practice cross country skiing but it was not safe to be outside. The lightning was more frequent than in most summer storms and a large fraction of it was very close. The area was wooded without towers, just houses, trees and power lines (which were not struck). 1983 preceeded cell towers by a decade.
The video doesn't work and, following the link, I end up at the Facebook sign up page. I don't have an account with FB and I never will have an account with them. It would be helpful if people with videos used YouTube or some other publicly available web site. I'm even more in the dark (pun intended) because the study quoted in the post requires me to pay $38 if I want a PDF version. It's "only" $6 to rent it for 48 hours as long as I'm willing to download and install proprietary reader software and can get through it in 2 days, since I can't print it out or save it. Nice job.

The question I'd ask is how many places in downtown Chicago aren't within 3 km of a tall object? It's not clear from the abstract how "tall objects" is even defined. Is my ham radio tower, at 75 feet, tall enough? I'm also confused by the claim that wind turbines have some protective effect on these SIUL's when 13.1% of the strikes included wind turbines. Not knowing the density of wind turbines or how many times wind turbine were struck in the downtown Chicago area, it's impossible to judge if that figure is significant or not. I wonder if they did a distribution based on time of day? It seems that all the thundersnow events I've seen have been after dark, but that's just anecdotal, and I don't know if there really is a propensity for these events to occur more frequently in the dark.

The most impressive thundersnow event I've ever seen was out in the Nevada desert, about 25 miles east of Eureka. I was camped out in my motorhome in an area that had no power lines, no towers of any kind, and the tallest object, other than the mountains to my west, may have been my motorhome. There was an hour of almost continuous CG strikes while the visibility was about 100 yards in heavy snow. I couldn't actually see the source of the strikes so, like you, I just counted from the flash, and most of them were within one second. My motorhome has an aluminum body grounded to the chassis, sitting on rubber tires, so the chances of getting killed if lightning actually struck the rig was pretty small. Still, I sat on a chair in the kitchen as far away as I could get from the skin, plumbing, and wiring until it was over. The thunder was so intense that i could see the motorhome body flex as the shockwaves hit. I was completely alone in the midst of the howling desert, and the prediction was for scattered flurries. I like weather, but that's one experience I'd prefer not go through again.
Quoting 20. sar2401:

The video doesn't work and, following the link, I end up at the Facebook sign up page. I don't have an account with FB and I never will have an account with them. It would be helpful if people with videos used YouTube or some other publicly available web site. I'm even more in the dark (pun intended) because the study quoted in the post requires me to pay $38 if I want a PDF version. It's "only" $6 to rent it for 48 hours as long as I'm willing to download and install proprietary reader software and can get through it in 2 days, since I can't print it out or save it. Nice job.

The question I'd ask is how many places in downtown Chicago aren't within 3 km of a tall object? It's not clear from the abstract how "tall objects" is even defined. Is my ham radio tower, at 75 feet, tall enough? I'm also confused by the claim that wind turbines have some protective effect on these SIUL's when 13.1% of the strikes included wind turbines. Not knowing the density of wind turbines or how many times wind turbine were struck in the downtown Chicago area, it's impossible to judge if that figure is significant or not. I wonder if they did a distribution based on time of day? It seems that all the thundersnow events I've seen have been after dark, but that's just anecdotal, and I don't know if there really is a propensity for these events to occur more frequently in the dark.

The most impressive thundersnow event I've ever seen was out in the Nevada desert, about 25 miles east of Eureka. I was camped out in my motorhome in an area that had no power lines, no towers of any kind, and the tallest object, other than the mountains to my west, may have been my motorhome. There was an hour of almost continuous CG strikes while the visibility was about 100 yards in heavy snow. I couldn't actually see the source of the strikes so, like you, I just counted from the flash, and most of them were within one second. My motorhome has an aluminum body grounded to the chassis, sitting on rubber tires, so the chances of getting killed if lightning actually struck the rig was pretty small. Still, I sat on a chair in the kitchen as far away as I could get from the skin, plumbing, and wiring until it was over. The thunder was so intense that i could see the motorhome body flex as the shockwaves hit. I was completely alone in the midst of the howling desert, and the prediction was for scattered flurries. I like weather, but that's one experience I'd prefer not go through again.


I didn't attach a video, just text.
Thanks dok henson.
That low passing across Florida per the discussion below could probably use some "help" from the typical Florida t-storms and western eastern coast sea breeze showers in trying to get some convection going at the surface later in the period but it's pretty nice and bone dry across Florida for the moment. It remains to be seen how much convection it can get going while passing near Florida:

Note from the discussion:ROBUST,ALBEIT MOISTURE STARVED DISTURBANCE, PASSING THROUGH THE FLORIDASTRAITS TOMORROW, MAY KICK OFF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THEEXTREME SOUTH




20. sar2401

Study quoted in post is available here.
The printable version of the fallstreak hole poster fails to mention that it is produced by an airplane.
If you're having trouble viewing the embedded Facebook video, and the link to the Facebook post itself isn't working, you can view the video at the WeatherVideoHD.TV preview site. You may also want to try a different Web browser. We try to use YouTube for embedded videos whenever possible, but it wasn't an option in this case.

Bob H.
Late 80s early Dec. snowstorm for me. Rural area w/ no towers for miles. Tried to wait until end of day (4:30) since snow didn't start until late afternoon. Bad idea when driving a rear wheel drive Turbo T-bird w/ 225/60s Flashing and rumbling continuously as tried to clear a path for tires up the only small hill still in my way about a mile from home. Fortunately my brother headed out in 4 while drive truck when I wasn't home by 5:30. I had made it about 10 feet up from where stuck in about a half hour w/ at least another 10 to go. Much quicker w/ the truck's help. Have heard it several times since, but nothing as intense as that storm. I think it dropped 6-8" in about 3 hrs.

Anyway, before I left work last evening they'd revised our lows for this morning from 40 to 37. Station to my SW has 36 as low, one to my N had 32! We've warmed to upper 60s, not quite making the 70 forecast. Dew pts are in low/mid 30s, pressure in 30.15 -30.2" range, very light winds from E-NE. With those low dew pts I imagine clouds approaching from NW will dry up as start crossing into W IL.
Hey Sar (#20), thanks for the thundery story; glad you survived :-) George and others as well, of course! I've experienced some thundersnow in Germany but nothing as violent as you did.
Facebook video in the entry (including the link) doesn't work for me either (I'm no member). Found these two videos on youtube, really striking. And over all, thanks for the interesting entry, Bob!




Quoting 15. Sfloridacat5:



I had a girl friend that lived in San Antonio with her family and they didn't have any AC. They would go the whole summer with no AC. It would be 95 degrees (heat index 105-110) inside their house.
I don't know how they did it, but they handled it just fine.
I felt like I was going to pass out after about 15 minutes. It was unbearable.



Prior to the 1930s this was the way EVERYBODY did it. Healthy people do acclimate very well to heat as long as the exposure is not sudden.
My neighor's house built around 1920 had an enormously thick layer of rocks below the basement with a vent in the middle of the floor. This provided some cool air which could then be sucked with fans to the rest of the house.

He now has AC as does practically everyone now in the DC area. When I was a kid in the mid 60s, we didn't have it though and I remember the summer of 1966 as really hot in Falls Church VA. We moved to another house in 1967 which had Central Air. My dad also was the last in his car pool to buy an air conditioned car.. April 1968. We weren't poor but we were frugal.
Ada Monzón retweeted
NWS San Juan @NWSSanJuan · 38m 38 minutes ago
Consecutive streak of 6 days with daily record highs ended today. This tied Jun 20-26, 1983 for the longest streak of record highs.
Quoting 25. gippgig:

The printable version of the fallstreak hole poster fails to mention that it is produced by an airplane.

Not all are but it is a common cause of fallstreak holes.
Quoting 11. ricderr:

So the bad news....the AC goes out.....the even worse news....it's the condenser unit.....1700 bucks plus labor....the great news....it's still under warranty....the bad news....not in stock....5 days out...the even worse news...temps in the 90's this weekend...oh well...we'll survive....

All comes as a result of living in a place unsuitable for human habitation!
Looks like a repeat of Beryl back in May 2012, formation wise, NOT TRACK WISE!!
Pretty decent satellite loop of an upper level disturbance combining with a frontal boundary, creating Beryl. Something like what might happen next week.

"
37. vis0
Wow! the whole blogbyte (An Atlantic Named Storm Coming for...) poofed
Oh its the DynamicDuo 2 fer 1 day ...whew... The following take with a grain of salt since i'm a nut.
Great blogbyte i wish i could've shared my knowledge on how causing a continuous micro stream of cooler (staticized oops wrong word...whatever the word is for adding sub atomic static charges) rising air breaks out thunder snow.  In 2010 towards 2011 i did it with 2 storms (think both ~Dec.) and produced between in Manhattan, NYC ~34st to 23 rd street, 1st to 3rd ave at least 8 thunder/lightning snow (Phipps tower on #444 on 26th street & 2nd Ave its had / has some outdoor like antennas on its cement lined water tower) its "just" 33 stories tall was hit twice. The thunder sounded louder than summer lighting almost like ones head was inside a 50 gal metal drum and someone banged the drum ON TOP ONCE but hard. A few lightnings seem to hit buildings just north of 34 st near the East River heliport there are ~3 or 4 ~50 story building in that area. too weird huh?

Liked the sar2401 detail of how the motor homes panel/body flexed during a thunder snow he experienced, as to Sar2401s comment on the lean towards more of these events at nighttime, when i tried to trigger some during the day time the thunder sounded as if very high up water down muffled sound but if you could see the daytime lighting and counted 1misissppi, 2 Mississippi... it happened under 3 seconds but still sounded like a 15 sec away lightning to thunder count...as if far away, loudest where just as it became dark up to 3-4 hours later as if as the air is cooling (faster?) helps.

Sar2401 you gotta get a motor home with a skin that is sturdier than Reynolds%uFFFD wrap.: - P
Quoting 35. 882MB:

Looks like a repeat of Beryl back in May 2012, formation wise, NOT TRACK WISE!!
Pretty decent satellite loop of an upper level disturbance combining with a frontal boundary, creating Beryl. Something like what might happen next week.

"


Beryl's probably in the top 10 storms I've ever tracked (since 2009), and it brought us some much needed rain.
Quoting 37. vis0:

Wow! the whole blogbyte (An Atlantic Named Storm Coming for...) poofed

Don't worry, you can go to my blog for more information.
Quoting 37. vis0:

Wow! the whole blogbyte (An Atlantic Named Storm Coming for...) poofed


I still can see it, VisO. Link
Mmmm potential storm developing next week with a interesting blog topic..Must be HAARP.lol.
What Do Skyscrapers, Thundersnow, and Jim Cantore Have in Common?

is this a trick question?
nevermind...cant post a picture
Made it to 90.3F, now has backed off to 89.4F...... three days in the 90's and first ones of the year here, were close about a month ago but fell short.

Cooling off soon.
The east coast of Australia really got challenged by severe weather lately!

Brisbane weather: 'An extreme weather event' takes four lives
May 2, 2015 - 12:00AM

Eleven people rescued from floodwaters in northern NSW as heavy rain moves down the coast
Posted about an hour ago

Have a good night everyone.
Good morning. The dry and very warm weather will continue in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands thru Saturday.A relief is coming by Sunday as the winds change from the east and (moisture increases a little bit) LOL
Quoting 35. 882MB:

Looks like a repeat of Beryl back in May 2012, formation wise, NOT TRACK WISE!!
Pretty decent satellite loop of an upper level disturbance combining with a frontal boundary, creating Beryl. Something like what might happen next week.

"


Beryl nearly hit Jacksonville as a hurricane, coming in from the east, in May. Easily one of the oddest pre/post-season storms I've tracked.
Quoting 48. Gearsts:

Good morning. The dry and very warm weather will continue in Puerto Rico and adjacent islands thru Saturday.A relief is coming by Sunday as the winds change from the east and (moisture increases a little bit) LOL



My words.
Quoting 50. Tropicsweatherpr:



My words.
Yep
Although not impossible, the expected development of a Tropical Cyclone in the Northwest Bahamas early next week is not that likely to occur as atmospheric conditions for such development this early in the season usually don't materialize. In other words, don't hold your breath.
Really GFS... lol

Hundreds of collapsing buildings in Havana by heavy rains last Wednesday and Thursday. For details visit my blog.
http://consultorageomet.blogspot.com
Quoting BobHenson:
If you're having trouble viewing the embedded Facebook video, and the link to the Facebook post itself isn't working, you can view the video at the WeatherVideoHD.TV preview site. You may also want to try a different Web browser. We try to use YouTube for embedded videos whenever possible, but it wasn't an option in this case.

Bob H.
I'm using the latest version of Chrome with Win 7. The problem is not your end, Bob, it's the group that posted the video. They posted to a non-public FB page, which mean you have to sign up for FB to view it. They are using a protected system at their preview site so the full version of their video doesn't get stolen. No problem with that, but I then run into this message -

Note Chrome does not support the quicktime plugin so you may run into videos that don't play.

And that is indeed what happened. They obviously used a Mac to process the video so it's only going to work with another Mac and probably Safari unless they took steps to make it universally available. I don't really know, but I gave up trying to see the video at this point. It appears they are trying to sell the video, but that's a tough thing when the preview doesn't work with an OS and web browser used by the majority of people today.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
20. sar2401

Study quoted in post is available here.
Thanks very much. I had forgotten to check ResearchGate. Thanks goodness we have that resource available. Off to read about why Cantore didn't get struck...this time.
Quoting georgevandenberghe:


I didn't attach a video, just text.
LOL. Not you, George. :-)
58. SuzK
Quoting 2. ricderr:

regarding enso models and the spring barrier....we hear that there are errors...but until today i never knew how bad.....thanx to the enso blog......the following is a graph...showing how bad they do even when only trying to predict the next quarter.....at best...when trying to predict the following three months of may, june and july...the models are only right just over 30 percent of the time....their error rate is higher each following month





I just want to say that it seems forecasting is failing more and more often on the local level, because the weather is changing, the climate is changing, everything is bumping up to the next level, and has become less predictable overall. I can't bring myself to blame the forecasters or the computer models. For me its been the first real proof that change has, and continues, to occur. I fear the changes will eventually come so hot and fast that no computer could adjust its calculations in time.
Nepal Earthquake and Aftermath:
No way to tell, other than the current modeling, whether this will actually happen or not. I only note that current shear, even off that part of US coast, is howling so I think marginal-favorable SST's are a portion of the equation. A cold cored storm (based upon a low emerging off the coast from the continental US or a late season Gulf low moving up the seaboard) is the typical scenario for an extra-tropical storm in this general location. Formation north of the Bahamas, if the shear does not cooperate to some degree, is a tougher nut to crack IMHO. However, would be a real pre-season "treat" if we actually got a first named storm for the upcoming season under these conditions.
I'm sorry for all the lost comments, and this blog has lost about nine here at the very end. However, I've caught the problem and have hopefully squashed it. Carry on.
Quoting 53. SouthCentralTx:

Really GFS... lol


Ban this comment!
I wonder how this upper air disturbance, SE of Texas will look like when it combines with the remnant frontal boundary, which by early week, will be moving back north into the Florida straits, and the Bahamas from the NW Caribbean sea. The precursor to our possible system. And a rainy weather pattern setting up for S FL which they desperately need it.

Good to see the Blog is back with us. 90F for third day in a row.
Quoting 53. SouthCentralTx:

Really GFS... lol




Who says Doom can't happen in May
Quoting 8. Gearsts:




All that SAL is like hell on Earth
Thank you WunderYakuza!
I couldn't ask for a better start to May.

Speaking of lightning...
Here's hail for April in 2013, 2014, and 2015, an interesting graphic from SPC.
Click image to link to SPC page.

A comparison of the remotely-sensed hail events from April 2015 (red), April 2014 (green), and April 2013 (blue). This data comes from the Multi-Radar/Mutil-Sensor System developed at the National Severe Storms Laboratory: Link to NSSL page
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I couldn't ask for a better start to May.


Welcome be thou, faire, fresshe May.

The Knight's Tale, part II, Canterbury Tales
the science channel has a new series i could only find this video but they did one on storms and the studying of clouds
Link
67. BaltimoreBrian
2:27 AM GMT on May 02, 2015

thanks for ur posts. axial volcano is one that i seem to have some issues with and probably wouldn't have know for a while that it went off. the censors for it were all disrupted in 2011 about a month or so after the japan earthquake
Quoting 20. sar2401:

The video doesn't work and, following the link, I end up at the Facebook sign up page. I don't have an account with FB and I never will have an account with them. It would be helpful if people with videos used YouTube or some other publicly available web site. I'm even more in the dark (pun intended) because the study quoted in the post requires me to pay $38 if I want a PDF version. It's "only" $6 to rent it for 48 hours as long as I'm willing to download and install proprietary reader software and can get through it in 2 days, since I can't print it out or save it. Nice job.

The question I'd ask is how many places in downtown Chicago aren't within 3 km of a tall object? It's not clear from the abstract how "tall objects" is even defined. Is my ham radio tower, at 75 feet, tall enough? I'm also confused by the claim that wind turbines have some protective effect on these SIUL's when 13.1% of the strikes included wind turbines. Not knowing the density of wind turbines or how many times wind turbine were struck in the downtown Chicago area, it's impossible to judge if that figure is significant or not. I wonder if they did a distribution based on time of day? It seems that all the thundersnow events I've seen have been after dark, but that's just anecdotal, and I don't know if there really is a propensity for these events to occur more frequently in the dark.

The most impressive thundersnow event I've ever seen was out in the Nevada desert, about 25 miles east of Eureka. I was camped out in my motorhome in an area that had no power lines, no towers of any kind, and the tallest object, other than the mountains to my west, may have been my motorhome. There was an hour of almost continuous CG strikes while the visibility was about 100 yards in heavy snow. I couldn't actually see the source of the strikes so, like you, I just counted from the flash, and most of them were within one second. My motorhome has an aluminum body grounded to the chassis, sitting on rubber tires, so the chances of getting killed if lightning actually struck the rig was pretty small. Still, I sat on a chair in the kitchen as far away as I could get from the skin, plumbing, and wiring until it was over. The thunder was so intense that i could see the motorhome body flex as the shockwaves hit. I was completely alone in the midst of the howling desert, and the prediction was for scattered flurries. I like weather, but that's one experience I'd prefer not go through again.


I haven't posted too often in 2015 but haven't seen you around since the ice storm the Carolinas experienced this winter but heard you were banned, welcome back sar. I haven't seen the video but the reverse direction of lightning is something I haven't even thought of. Though potential decreases from the upper atmosphere to the ground the charge at the surface (which supports the more common cloud to ground lightning) the charge repulsion from other clouds can attract opposite charge from the ground. Never really thought of it the other way like that.

And as a user who is on the hammie radio, The Simpsons have poked some fun at it, and as a 23 year old I can't help it but to reference it ;). Link
Quoting 71. BaltimoreBrian:


Welcome be thou, faire, fresshe May.

The Knight's Tale, part II, Canterbury Tales


Five or six years later I'm still wondering why we had to recite the beginning of that in Middle English as a huge chunk of our British Literature course grade. Gelukkig weet ik nog een beetje Nederlands dus kon ik de meestal woorden uitspreken.

Quoting 53. SouthCentralTx:

Really GFS... lol




It's less than thirty days before hurricane season starts so the GFS wants to make sure the Florida wunderbloggers become extra prepared for this season
78. vis0
Quoting 61. WunderYakuza:

I'm sorry for all the lost comments, and this blog has lost about nine here at the very end. However, I've caught the problem and have hopefully squashed it. Carry on.
fingers crossed and as they say not seeing is unbelieving...no?....believing is not seeing...no?... what goes in must come out...no!?... unseeing the disappearing is believing!
The next run of the GFS still shows a low, so who knows?

Statement as of 9:18 am EDT on May 1, 2015


... April 2015 warmest April on record at Miami...

The average monthly temperature at Miami International Airport last
month was 80.4 degrees fahrenheit. This ranks as the warmest April
on record for the Miami area since recordkeeping began in 1896.
Previously, the warmest April was 80.1 degrees in 2011.
Quoting 80. swflurker:

Statement as of 9:18 am EDT on May 1, 2015


... April 2015 warmest April on record at Miami...

The average monthly temperature at Miami International Airport last
month was 80.4 degrees fahrenheit. This ranks as the warmest April
on record for the Miami area since recordkeeping began in 1896.
Previously, the warmest April was 80.1 degrees in 2011.



Tallahassee did too.

So did Daytona Beach, Melbourne, and Vero Beach.
Along with Naples, West Palm Beach, ect.


Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Tallahassee did too.
3 days to D-Day :( :( :(
Quoting 83. swflurker:

3 days to D-Day :( :( :(


Yeah, I'll pretty much be gone.
Quoting win1gamegiantsplease:


Five or six years later I'm still wondering why we had to recite the beginning of that in Middle English as a huge chunk of our British Literature course grade. Gelukkig weet ik nog een beetje Nederlands dus kon ik de meestal woorden uitspreken.


ic eom wraetlic wiht on gewin sceapen
Good morning from Europe where the first delivery of tropical moisture from the Caribbean due to an atmospheric river across the Atlantic left decent amounts of rain in the western Alps and southern Germany. After a little break today the second part will reach us (including my region near Frankfurt) tonight.


Accumulated precipitation in the last 24h. Source.


Saved loop of precipitable water. Source.


Current airmasses. IR Loop.

And congratulations to the Brits and their royals beneath the clouds: It's a girl.
gfs is doing two storms? one developing off the east coast later this week and another two weeks from now in the bahamas.


i see a weak low here
This is what is keeping the Atlantic and Caribbean quiet but also sadly dry
As long as it is present weather events that should have produced won't.

Quoting 66. CaribBoy:



All that SAL is like hell on Earth
Starting to wonder if the GFS is starting to hang around with the CMC and partying to much, lol!
Quoting SouthCentralTx:
Really GFS... lol

European



Canadian



American



"... clear skies and then - bang! - a storm system ..." Quote from the fresh BBC weather video:

Storms hit east coast Australia
2 May 2015 Last updated at 13:25
A devastating downpour hits Queensland bringing dangerous flash flooding. Fatalities have been reported, caused by the storm which brought almost 180mm of rain in just 3 hours.
---------------------

Kenya: 15 Killed, Several Residents Missing in Narok Flash Floods
The Star, April 30, 2015

Kenya: Floods Hit Narok for Second Day Running
The Star, May 1, 2015
Quoting 30. georgevandenberghe:



Prior to the 1930s this was the way EVERYBODY did it. Healthy people do acclimate very well to heat as long as the exposure is not sudden.
My neighor's house built around 1920 had an enormously thick layer of rocks below the basement with a vent in the middle of the floor. This provided some cool air which could then be sucked with fans to the rest of the house.

He now has AC as does practically everyone now in the DC area. When I was a kid in the mid 60s, we didn't have it though and I remember the summer of 1966 as really hot in Falls Church VA. We moved to another house in 1967 which had Central Air. My dad also was the last in his car pool to buy an air conditioned car.. April 1968. We weren't poor but we were frugal.


Growing up down the shore, A/C wasn't a Thing until sometime in the 1970's. I remember at least one early 1970's summer where it was so bad my brother and I camped out in Mom's room (the only one with an AC unit) - it was hot enough at night that sleeping with Mom's snoring beat sweltering in bed by a mile. Wasn't long after that Mom had her handyman build a larger wall unit into the living room downstairs. The only houses with Central Air were new construction rich folk houses in Margate and Longport - if you only needed it a handful of times a year, why bother?

I'm enjoying the swamp cooler when we need to run it, and unless this warm wave peaks bad, odds are I won't be inspecting the cooler for anything other than wasps for another three weeks or so. (Last year I learned how to use a bearing puller to get it working; one thing I'll say for a fixer-upper, I've learned more about plumbing, roofing, construction and mechanical repairs in the last four years than I did in the previous 48.)
I wonder how long it took them to rub all that snow and ice into Jim Cantore's face.
Quoting 95. yonzabam:

I wonder how long it took them to rub all that snow and ice into Jim Cantore's face.


Yep, sensationalism at its' finest. Not quite as good as this however from several years ago.



big ? here!!
Quoting 97. hurricanes2018:




big ? here!!
Can I get a link that show all of the major computer model runs I don't want Florida Genesis link thanks in adavance the web site that Levi had can I get link to it and other as well
Today marks the 4th anniversary of the day for record tornadoes. Link
















101. VR46L
Quoting 99. ackee:

Can I get a link that show all of the major computer model runs I don't want Florida Genesis link thanks in adavance the web site that Levi had can I get link to it and other as well


Tropical Tidbits

NWS Models

Instant weather maps

Twisterdata

Unisys

Have others too ...
The 2014-2015 snow season is the record snowiest snow season in Prince Edward Island's capitol city, Charlottetown, with over 18 feet of snowfall.

Link
103. vis0
Quoting 99. ackee:

Can I get a link that show all of the major computer model runs I don't want Florida Genesis link thanks in adavance the web site that Levi had can I get link to it and other as well

pssst pssssttt buudy ........yeah you ackee i hear ya wantz some Model runs (insert joke here)
i gotz a deal,  the major modes plus i throw in a few minor runs
Canada Global ,


Don't be fooled by the name "bits" you get GB of info here U like give some support ya know how hard it to draw those squggaly lines during allergy season,
Ya want SAL het SAL!, Sals busy but go here to find where SAL will be,
Stop jumping for joy patrap its NOT a BBrain news comment,
i see yer waving, so ya want wave models STORMSUFs yer site,


Besides pizza i luv spaphetti here some spaphetti models check their MODEL links,


Numerical weather prediction systems sound professional i'll play 256 combo,


Some kids up to all good, smaty pants at wyo,
if he knew of the 40days+nights he knows models or Grothar, his name, NOAA
if ya need me ya know where i'm at, that 6x6 room with thick plush carpeted walls.

(don't forget to hover)
Now "What Do Skyscrapers, Thundersnow, and Jim Cantore Have in Common?".(in the voice of family guy's stewie) "let me guess! let me guess! me me me........fracking .........HA! didn't say anything else.

i joke on Cantore but i think he's cool after all i sent him the most pgs on my science, ~2,000 way back in the 1990s, i think he never received my Mr.X dictionary (seriously, it was hundreds of pgs. hand written and was absolutely needed to decipher my misspelled and customized words & drawings).

for added humor but on one ones own time an image from last yr (my blog)

Weather section? did you not notice the links above.

Back to (TS) anticipation (insert 1970s "anticipation" ketchup AD here)_
Not bad, could bring some rain and winds to the coast, and high surf.

Quoting StAugustineFL:


Yep, sensationalism at its' finest. Not quite as good as this however from several years ago.


At least she got called out on it.
I love when there's only 6" of snow on the ground and the reporter stands behind a plowed pile of snow trying to pretend the snow is 5' deep.
Or even better when they act like they can't stand up because the winds are so strong. Then you see a family casually walk by in the background like its nothing. One meteorologist is famous for his lack of balance in 20-30 mph winds.
Yup and a rare quality northerly groundswell all the way down to south Florida.

Friday could be good SE NC beaches as it pulls away and cleans up. Hope so. Been a pretty dismal 2015 south of OBX so far. My boards are all covered in pollen. ahhh chooooo!

Quoting 104. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Not bad, could bring some rain and winds to the coast, and high surf.


Wind gets cranking up pretty good.
Quoting HaoleboySurfEC:
Yup and a rare quality northerly groundswell all the way down to south Florida.

Friday could be good SE NC beaches as it pulls away and cleans up. Hope so. Been a pretty dismal 2015 south of OBX so far. My boards are all covered in pollen. ahhh chooooo!



I could be looking at a nice ground swell from the north along with offshore winds next weekend on the East Coast.
I am pleased to announce that the record number of years without recorded snowfall in Costa Rica has been extended by yet another year without snow. However, if the average annual rainfall (4000mm) on the slope of Costa Rica's highest mountain (where the temperatures routinely fall below freezing) were converted to snow at a 10:1 moisture content there could be as much as 40 meters of snow depth in a year. Thank goodness it didn't happen!
Quoting 45. PedleyCA:

Made it to 90.3F, now has backed off to 89.4F...... three days in the 90's and first ones of the year here, were close about a month ago but fell short.

Cooling off soon.

We are running at about 93 F or 34C here today at 6 pm in Seville, quite warm for the beginning of May and a bit higher than the forecast.
Pressure 1012 Mb.
No rain in sight for you yet Ped.
prolonged period of low pressure offshore the e.coast could put a hold on scotts central floridas early rainy season forecast
Quoting 95. yonzabam:

I wonder how long it took them to rub all that snow and ice into Jim Cantore's face.


Since TWC owns this site now, are we allowed to make fun of Cantore?

Anyways, AWESOME day in Central Florida. At Melbourne Beach's Founders Day.... Couldn't have asked for a nicer weather day. (Even though I prefer colder, most people do not).
4.2 near Kalamazoo, Michigan.

Quoting Dakster:


Since TWC owns this site now, are we allowed to make fun of Cantore?

Anyways, AWESOME day in Central Florida. At Melbourne Beach's Founders Day.... Couldn't have asked for a nicer weather day. (Even though I prefer colder, most people do not).


Yeah, I was nice enough to leave out the meteorologists name in my previous post.
I'm very critical about some of the things I see on TWC (programming and weather coverage).

But I'm also very supportive of some of their severe weather coverage, especially when Dr. Greg Forbes is on.
Love it when Dr. Forbes is covering the severe weather. He does a great job.
Quoting 117. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, I was nice enough to leave out the meteorologists name in my previous post.
I'm very critical about some of the things I see on TWC (programming and weather coverage).

But I'm also very supportive of some of the severe weather coverage, especially when Dr. Greg Forbes is on.
Love it when Dr. Forbes is covering the severe weather. He does a great job.


Some are great. Just not a fan of the "shock" mets... Unfortunately, most of the ones I like are now retired (like Max Mayfield)


So by the looks of it, it forms subtropically, makes a loop, and transitions into tropical in time to make landfall in SC..
Boring! boring!! boring!!! weather. 10 day forecast no rain for me at all! I hate this, can't wait for the actual summer rainy season to come.
122. JRRP
Quoting opal92nwf:
Boring! boring!! boring!!! weather. 10 day forecast no rain for me at all! I hate this, can't wait for the actual summer rainy season to come.


I know the feeling well. Overall, April was a wet month for most of Florida.
But here in S.W. Florida we still managed less than average precipitation for the month.

Naples
TOTAL FOR MONTH: 1.75
DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.61

SINCE JAN 1: 4.84
DPTR FM NORMAL: -3.91

Fort Myers
TOTAL FOR MONTH: 2.00
DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.18

SINCE JAN 1: 6.68
DPTR FM NORMAL: -2.52
Quoting 116. GTstormChaserCaleb:

4.2 near Kalamazoo, Michigan.


Darn! Are they fracking around with Michigan now too?
92W is very organize! Seems great.



Should be a typhoon, good outflow.
CaneFreeCR - There is a fault in Michigan...
West Pacific


RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 07.4N 141.8E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 1004HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 08.6N 139.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =



Link
128. 78787
Gearsts<--------
Cerca el racionamiento de agua potable
AAA hace llamado urgente a reducir el consumo en los hogares:
Segn explic el planificador del Departamento de Recursos Naturales y Ambientales Flix Aponte, hijo, la temporada seca entre febrero y abril es caracterstica de Puerto Rico. Sin embargo, al presente las precipitaciones han sido an menos que en otros aos y el Servicio Nacional de Meteorologa ha pronosticado que las lluvias que usualmente se esperan para mayo y junio, que sirven para que cada ao los embalses se recuperen de la sequa, sern menos y tardarn en llegar.
%u201CLa proyeccin de entrada de agua que vamos a tener para Puerto Rico en los prximos meses va a ser menor que la que normalmente tendramos. Nos preocupa que en estos perodos que vamos a estar con menos lluvias, el sistema hidrolgico no se pueda recuperar como normalmente se recupera%u201D, manifest Aponte.
Fix
So...Typhoon Noul (Dodong) and Typhoon Dolphin (Egay) for Early May:
Quoting 128. 78787:

Gearsts<--------
Cerca el racionamiento de agua potable
AAA hace llamado urgente a reducir el consumo en los hogares:
Seg�n explic� el planificador del Departamento de Recursos Naturales y Ambientales F�lix Aponte, hijo, la temporada seca entre febrero y abril es caracter�stica de Puerto Rico. Sin embargo, al presente las precipitaciones han sido a�n menos que en otros a�os y el Servicio Nacional de Meteorolog�a ha pronosticado que las lluvias que usualmente se esperan para mayo y junio, que sirven para que cada a�o los embalses se recuperen de la sequ�a, ser�n menos y tardar�n en llegar.
%u201CLa proyecci�n de entrada de agua que vamos a tener para Puerto Rico en los pr�ximos meses va a ser menor que la que normalmente tendr�amos. Nos preocupa que en estos per�odos que vamos a estar con menos lluvias, el sistema hidrol�gico no se pueda recuperar como normalmente se recupera%u201D, manifest� Aponte.


Feasgar math! Ciamar a tha thu? Co as a tha thu? Tha mi a Alba.
132. 882MB
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
850 PM CHST SAT MAY 2 2015

PMZ171-030600-
YAP-
850 PM CHST SAT MAY 2 2015

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN YAP STATE LIKELY TO DEVELOP...

THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN YAP STATE HAS GOOD POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP
AND IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. AT 630 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF
THE DISTURBANCE WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR 7.5 DEGREES NORTH AND
143.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FARAULEP...
50 MILES WEST OF WOLEAI AND 375 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. IT IS
MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 12 MPH.

THE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS STILL
UNCERTAIN...BUT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE IT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF YAP...ULITHI AND FAIS OVER THE
NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS AS IT DEVELOPS.

RESIDENTS OF WESTERN YAP STATE...ESPECIALLY ON YAP...ULITHI AND
FAIS...SHOULD KEEP ADVISED ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
LISTEN FOR ANY FURTHER STATEMENTS OR ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE



Quoting 123. Sfloridacat5:



I know the feeling well. Overall, April was a wet month for most of Florida.
But here in S.W. Florida we still managed less than average precipitation for the month.

Naples
TOTAL FOR MONTH: 1.75
DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.61

SINCE JAN 1: 4.84
DPTR FM NORMAL: -3.91

Fort Myers
TOTAL FOR MONTH: 2.00
DPTR FM NORMAL: -0.18

SINCE JAN 1: 6.68
DPTR FM NORMAL: -2.52



If it wasn't for that event earlier this week, it could have been much worse though, much of SW had next to nothing in rainfall totals for April prior to the thunderstorm complex that moved through a few days ago.
Quoting 126. Dakster:

CaneFreeCR - There is a fault in Michigan...
Yes, and if you pump fluids into it it will most likely slip -- per experience in eastern Ohio and central Oklahoma, to name two locales.
Quoting 108. Sfloridacat5:



At least she got called out on it.
I love when there's only 6" of snow on the ground and the reporter stands behind a plowed pile of snow trying to pretend the snow is 5' deep.
Or even better when they act like they can't stand up because the winds are so strong. Then you see a family casually walk by in the background like its nothing. One meteorologist is famous for his lack of balance in 20-30 mph winds.


Under some conditions some normally healthy people exhibit lack of balance in 0mph hour winds.
Quoting Jedkins01:


If it wasn't for that event earlier this week, it could have been much worse though, much of SW had next to nothing in rainfall totals for April prior to the thunderstorm complex that moved through a few days ago.


That's been the pattern here for the past few months. Weeks of dry weather and then we get a decent rain. Then the pattern repeats.
Check out the Calendar for Fort Myers. Most of the month is dry and then we'll get a decent rain right near the end of the month.

These dates make up the majority of our rainfall.
Feb. 28th
March. 27th
April 28-29
The death toll from last weekend's earthquake in Nepal has risen to 7,000; at least 14,000 people have been treated for injuries

Link
Looks like a wet period coming up for SE Florida next week.
Does anybody on here know what ever became of Stephanie Abrams from TWC. I have not seen her on that program for quite a while. Did she get fired like a lot of the other on-air folks who used to do the Weather. (I'm not complaining mind you, Just curious.)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
457 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

...TRANQUIL WEATHER FOLLOWED BY POSSIBLE STORMINESS/HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA MON NIGHT-TUE...

...HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES SUNDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH HAS BROUGHT A DRY AIRMASS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PWAT ON THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING WAS
BARELY OVER AN INCH WITH A FORMIDABLE CAP AT AROUND 7K FT. THE
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE DRY WITH FLOW FROM THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE
HIGH TONIGHT-SUNDAY. ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER THE EVERGLADES/GULF COAST THIS EVENING, DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT-SUNDAY...AND WITH AN
INCOMING 1-3 FT SWELL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, THERE WILL BE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES ON SUNDAY. SO
HAVE ISSUED A STATEMENT FOR THE HIGH RISK FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST
TO GET THE WORD OUT EARLY...AS THE SWELL LOOKS TO PEAK AT THE TIME
OF LOW TIDE DURING THE MID AFTERNOON...A DANGEROUS COMBINATION.

MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ON MONDAY BUT THE REAL THRUST ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
WITH THE OPERATIONAL 02.12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS. THE GFS IS MUCH
MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH REGARDS TO THE SURFACE TROUGH AND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. THE ECMWF IS LESS PRONOUNCED...WEAKER
WITH THE TROUGH AND HAS THE HIGHEST MOISTURE OVER THE BAHAMAS.
GIVEN THIS THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MONDAY
NIGHT-TUESDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS A PERIOD WHICH WE WILL BE
MONITORING VERY CLOSELY AS THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF A FLOODING
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST, PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY WITH THE NORTHWARD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH.

GFS SHOWS A MOISTURE SURGE (PWATS INCREASING TO NEAR 1.9 INCHES)
ALONG A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS
STRENGTHENING NORTH OF ITS AXIS ALONG WITH AN INCOMING MID LEVEL
LOW AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE...A SET UP WHERE IN THE PAST VERY
LOCALIZED BUT EXTREME RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE OCCURRED. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE THERE WITH COOLING MID LEVELS...SO THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TORRENTIAL RAINS COULD RESULT. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH AND GIVES PAUSE TO CONFIDENCE IN HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THIS
FORECAST...AS THIS MODEL SHOWS THE MAX QPF WELL TO THE EAST WITH
LESS CONVERGENCE LOCALLY. SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW A LARGE
SPREAD IN QPF ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WITH RUNS RANGING
FROM LESS THAN AN INCH TO AS HIGH AS 5"+! SO THERE IS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY...BUT BEARS WATCHING, NO DOUBT.

AS THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS LATE
TUE-WED...GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN POINTING AT THE POSSIBILITY OF
A SUB-TROPICAL OR TROPICAL LOW DEVELOPING ALONG IT AND MEANDERING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK (NORTH OF OUR AREA). THERE IS A HIGH
DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER OR NOT THIS DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR OR NOT. REGARDLESS, FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...NO SIGNIFICANT
AFFECTS ARE EXPECTED WITH MID-LATE WEEK WEATHER FEATURING ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE WOULD NEED TO
WATCH ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR POSSIBLE SWELL/RIP CURRENTS NEXT
WEEK ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
141. MahFL
Quoting 138. HurriHistory:

Looks like a wet period coming up for SE Florida next week.


Like that wet period we did not have last week in NE FL ?
Quoting 121. opal92nwf:

Boring! boring!! boring!!! weather. 10 day forecast no rain for me at all! I hate this, can't wait for the actual summer rainy season to come.


What's a Summer Rainy Season and how do I get one....lol
Anna appears to be a early starter..Catch my drift? (wink face).
Marine Weather Discussion

Excerpt:

THE FORECAST ISSUE FOR TUE THROUGH THU CONTINUES TO BE THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SOME
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES IN MODEL OUTPUT REGARDING THE
TIMING...POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES. THE GFS APPEARS TO
CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH IS
LEADING TO A MUCH STRONGER SOLUTION...MOVING N OF THE AREA BY THU
MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING BACK SW-S INTO THE AREA. THERE ALSO HAS
BEEN LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE
LOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER LOW LOCATED MORE TO THE SW
CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY WED MORNING...LIFTING N OF THE
AREA BY LATE THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE UKMET MODEL IS SLOWER WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND LOCATES IT MORE TO THE NE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. NEEDLESS TO SAY MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THIS LOW AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORING WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.
18z GFS has the developing low off the east coast of Florida in 164 hours heading inbound and meandering around. Something to keep an eye on for now.
147. beell
Hey, nrt. Off-season break's over. Get back to work!

Quoting 144. nrtiwlnvragn:

Marine Weather Discussion

Excerpt:

THE FORECAST ISSUE FOR TUE THROUGH THU CONTINUES TO BE THE
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. SOME
SIGNIFICANT DISAGREEMENT CONTINUES IN MODEL OUTPUT REGARDING THE
TIMING...POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRES. THE GFS APPEARS TO
CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WHICH IS
LEADING TO A MUCH STRONGER SOLUTION...MOVING N OF THE AREA BY THU
MORNING BEFORE DRIFTING BACK SW-S INTO THE AREA. THERE ALSO HAS
BEEN LITTLE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE
LOW. THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH WEAKER LOW LOCATED MORE TO THE SW
CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BY WED MORNING...LIFTING N OF THE
AREA BY LATE THU NIGHT. MEANWHILE THE UKMET MODEL IS SLOWER WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW AND LOCATES IT MORE TO THE NE FARTHER
AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. NEEDLESS TO SAY MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS WITH THIS LOW AND THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW THE
MORE CONSERVATIVE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH WAS COORDINATED WITH
NEIGHBORING WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.



The GFS does seem to consistently "like" a fairly stout continental ridge with an axis stretching from the southeast up into central Canada-blocking a stacked system from a quick exit as the ridge slowly progresses east.


05/02 18Z GFS 500 mb heights, winds, vorticity @ 96 hrs

Closer to the surface, much the same. And maybe an issue with entrainment of cooler continental/N Atlantic air on the west side of the circulation-which may keep the precip lopsided to the east/north. Convective Feedback can't be ignored with respect to strength. But still...a real potential for a tight pressure gradient and attendant winds as it bumps into the ridge.


05/02 18Z GFS 850 mb heights, winds, @ 96 hrs

ADDED: And to add to the speculation, mix in a shot of severe over the central plains.
model runs can say what they want but with this kind of wind ahear off the SE cost





dont look for any name storms any time soon
HURRICANE SEASON 2015

Less than ONE MONTH left for those wanting to join us
88 predictions are up. Updating this weekend.

Chart closing information: June 1, 2015 at 12 noon EDT or 16:00 UTC
150. beell
Could be a bit more relaxed near the upper low, Taz...maybe.
Friday.



Quoting 139. HurriHistory:

Does anybody on here know what ever became of Stephanie Abrams from TWC. I have not seen her on that program for quite a while. Did she get fired like a lot of the other on-air folks who used to do the Weather. (I'm not complaining mind you, Just curious.)

She does Wake Up With Al from 5-7am EDT.
Very interesting area over South Eastern Pacific, near Easter Island. Looks like subtropical! Look this images:











The ECMWF is showing this system some days ago:

April 28th, 2015 - 00 UTC:


May 1st, 2015 - 12 UTC:


May 2nd, 2015 - 12 UTC:


May 3rd, 2015 - 12 UTC:



Animated images:
Water Vapour:
Link

Link

Visible:
Link

Link

153. xcool
Earthquake strikes Canton
With talk of the potential for an early start to the Atlantic hurricane season, and considering we're only two weeks away from the start of the Pacific hurricane season, here's a few of the more important changes the NHC will be making for 2015 (more available in the link):

1) Storm surge watch/warning graphics will be created for the first time this season

2) Tropical Weather Outlook probabilities will be changed: 0-30% is Code Yellow/Lemon, 40-60% is Code Orange/Mandarin, 70-100% is Code Red/Cherry

3) Local time will be utilized for products valid for the East Pacific

Link
First JTWC warning for TD06W.Peak is 80kt at the end.

156. beell
Quoting 151. TropicalAnalystwx13:


She does Wake Up With Al from 5-7am EDT.


That may violate some type of TWC Code of Conduct.
157. beell
Quoting 156. beell:



That may violate some type of TWC Code of Conduct.

Always appreciated your sense of humor, beell. :)
@ Pablosyn
Real interesting feature there in the SE Pacific...

160. beell
Quoting 158. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Always appreciated your sense of humor, beell. :)


I think it's a requirement here!
Thanks.
Quoting 159. MaxWeather:

@ Pablosyn
Real interesting feature there in the SE Pacific...




Surfs UP....
watch this low off the southeast next week!!
moving towards Cape Hatteras:
Complex Emergency in Puerto Rico on Sunday, 03 May, 2015 at 02:07 (02:07 AM) UTC.
Description
Puerto Rico government officials are urging people in the U.S. territory to conserve water amid a record-breaking heat wave. The president of the island's water and sewer company says water levels are extremely low for the season and notes that summer has not even started. Alberto Lazaro said in a statement Saturday that water levels in one of the main reservoirs dropped by more than six feet (nearly two meters) in April alone. He blamed a lack of rain and excessive water use. Lazaro said the company has embraced water conservation measures that have caused interruption in service to at least one neighborhood in the capital of San Juan.
Quoting 164. wxhatt:

moving towards Cape Hatteras:

MAYBE A LANDFALL TO!!
Quoting 153. xcool:

Earthquake strikes Canton
169. 882MB
Quoting 155. Tropicsweatherpr:

First JTWC warning for TD06W.Peak is 80kt at the end.




Looks to be organizing slowly, but has good outflow and warm waters ahead. I wont be surprised if it peaks above 80kt.

Read this from the Tropical Discussion Information:

In the extended Taus, TD 06w will continue to intensify and
remain on a WNW track under the steering influence of the new str
Leaf. By end of forecast, the system will be at typhoon intensity of
8o knots, possibly stronger.
The initial set of numeric guidance in
loose agreement and given the uncertain storm motion as the cyclone
approaches a weak steering environment, there is low confidence in
the first jtwc forecast track on this system.//
Nnnn


">





NWS Tiyan Guam
Tropical Depression 06W
======================
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH is in effect for Yap Island and Ngulu in Yap State
Link
My latest forecast for 'Ana'
Re: Thundersnow...I remember thundersnow during near-blizzard conditions here in Central Alabama in the March 1993 storm. I was doing a Cantore polka on my front porch. It was so cool. Literally. No electricity. Luckily, we had a wood stove and a gas water heater. It was quite an incredible experience.
P.S. This is my first comment. I simply always checked here to get the earliest info about what to expect for the weather prospects. Actually, I mostly read this blog #1, for Dr. Master's fascinating posts, and 2#, for SARS' fascinating commentary.

I miss #2.

Quoting 166. hurricanes2018:



LOL This Outlook is from November 30, 2014 @ 7 PM. Hasn't been updated since. LOL
Quoting 172. Alagirl:

Re: Thundersnow...I remember thundersnow during near-blizzard conditions here in Central Alabama in the March 1993 storm. I was doing a Cantore polka on my front porch. It was so cool. Literally. No electricity. Luckily, we had a wood stove and a gas water heater. It was quite an incredible experience.
P.S. This is my first comment. I simply always checked here to get the earliest info about what to expect for the weather prospects. Actually, I mostly read this blog #1, for Dr. Master's fascinating posts, and 2#, for SARS' fascinating commentary.

I miss #2.




Welcome to the Zoo...

87.5 today, this will be more normal for awhile which is 79/53
176. vis0
CREDIT:: JMA
D&T:: on AniGif
SUBJECT:: Lets observe the cPAC's Northern Hemisphere look to
the left now right a bit further North of the Equator than usual, see anything that looks (NOT is) just looks interesting.
image host
177. JRRP
I think PAC MAN should win
Quoting 151. TropicalAnalystwx13:


She does Wake Up With Al from 5-7am EDT.
Next stop will be, out the door, unless they put her on Mid-Nights. I guess their slowly phasing her out.
179. vis0
Quoting 172. Alagirl:

Re: Thundersnow...I remember thundersnow during near-blizzard conditions here in Central Alabama in the March 1993 storm. I was doing a Cantore polka on my front porch. It was so cool. Literally. No electricity. Luckily, we had a wood stove and a gas water heater. It was quite an incredible experience.
P.S. This is my first comment. I simply always checked here to get the earliest info about what to expect for the weather prospects. Actually, I mostly read this blog #1, for Dr. Master's fascinating posts, and 2#, for SARS' fascinating commentary.

I miss #2.


Whats Bob Henson, Grothar, Labonbon, Patrap, barbamz, moderators, Taz ...chopped liver?



i'm being zilly (except for the mixed names apology), Sar21401 is also one of my fav


(uh, sar make sure it reads "GIFT" under "for the amount of" ...10% more fav is in bold)

Apology to "jazzygal" & "Chicklet" for mixing up their usernames in my recent zilly comments.
Quoting 156. beell:



That may violate some type of TWC Code of Conduct.


What would we do without your injection of humor from time to time on this blog?
Quoting 152. pablosyn:

Very interesting area over South Eastern Pacific, near Easter Island. Looks like subtropical! Look this images:

Metarea XV shows a low pressure with winds of 35 knts and a central pressure of 1002 mb. Looking at the genesis and structure of the storm the last few days I would call it a subtropical cyclone. However, the Chilean Navy surface chart indicates the low is frontal.
ECMWF next Sunday, looks subtropical.

Same place as first storm last year?




Link
For West Palm Beach...



Who's in charge here?!
The May update for the CFSv2 has come out and now shows ENSO 3.4 in the 3.0C to 3.5C range which surpasses the 1997 Super Event by a wide margin especially now that we are near the end of the "Spring Barrier" models are very bullish on a El-Nino the likes we've never seen before this Summer.

What I think we are going to need is a team of storm chasers across FL to chase these extreme severe weather events that will start arriving come Fall as you can put a fork in Tornado Alley and Hurricane Season if this El-Nino continues to emerge like what is being forecast. As it stands I have about 2 to 3 people committed to making this happen.

Literally off the chart now.




Quoting 183. GeoffreyWPB:
For West Palm Beach...





GFS takes it to NE FL but only enough force to knock over a lawn chair.
Quoting 186. StormTrackerScott:



GFS takes it to NE FL but only enough force to knock over a lawn chair.


Please don't make light of lawn furniture disarray...it can sometimes take valuable minutes to straighten out...and even, in extreme cases, cost almost the equivalent of a case of beer to replace damaged molded plastic chairs...
188. 882MB
Just woke up to see that 06W is now expected to be category 3 nearing the Philippines. I said yesterday (80 KTS), doubt it. Now new forecast track has a category 3 (110 KTS) approaching the Philippines. Loos like we have to keep a close eye on our future system. Though to early to say if it will impact the islands or re-curve.





189. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington
D&T:: On mp4s
SUBJECT:: 2 recent LOWs being watched to see if GFS (other Model runs) where trying to form a TS/Sub-T/Xtra-T out of these swirls... BTW, swirls galore off the NE.

http://youtu.be/L40F_vNdeDY(1196x728)






http://youtu.be/nJpZ9EGutYk(320x240)

From the NWS service in Melbourne this morning.

WED-SAT...FORECAST BECOMES MORE CHALLENGING FROM MID WEEK ONWARD AS
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME AGREEING ON STRENGTH/TIMING OF
SURFACE LOW THAT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE BAHAMAS AND LIFT NORTHWARD. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS A SLOWER TO
DEVELOP/WEAKER FEATURE FARTHER EAST OF FL...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS
FASTER FORMATION OF THE LOW AND HINTS AT POTENTIAL FOR SUBTROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT WELL OFFSHORE LATER IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES AND IT STILL BEING FARTHER OUT IN THE
FORECAST THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.

WITH THAT SAID...THE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AT THIS TIME SEEM TO
HAVE LESS IMPACT ON RAIN COVERAGE AND MORE TOWARDS WINDS AND MARINE
ISSUES. BOTH CONTINUE TO WRAP SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR AROUND THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM BRINGING DECREASING RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST
FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD
RANGING FROM NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
Quoting 187. presslord:



Please don't make light of lawn furniture disarray...it can sometimes take valuable minutes to straighten out...and even, in extreme cases, cost almost the equivalent of a case of beer to replace damaged molded plastic chairs...
Greetings Press. I have procured a solution to the lawn furniture issue. Most retailers sell furniture that are the equivalent of Styrofoam cups. We know what can happen when the cup is slightly less than half full even in a strong breeze, which are common especially along the coast. This is not only a waste of libation, but can make a mess out of the table situation. Lawn sets can be purchased that resist tipping in strong wind, and for only a few dollars more. I wanted to remind folks that this problem ( as well as many other wind related accidents ) can be avoided, and will save one from driving blocks to recover the lawn items.. Hope you are well.
Good Morning. Have not checked in since Friday afternoon. Maybe only me but I thought the low off of Florida was supposed to develop (as of last Friday) sometime today with an appearance towards the Carolinas early this week. Looks like the time-table has now shifted to later in the week? As I mentioned in Friday, there was-is very little moisture around Florida and I spoke to my Cousin in South Florida by telephone yesterday morning. He was doing an outdoor photography shoot in Coconut Creek (West of Pompano Beach area) and told me it was a beautiful morning in spite of the forecast with regard to the "low" passing through the Florida Straights.

Anticipating a potential comment from Presslord; I meant to specify "North" or "South Carolina" below and inadvertently grouped them together.......................Sorry.
Here is a photo of a hole-punch cloud in Pensacola. My husband took this picture in 2011.
Quoting 194. weathermanwannabe:

Anticipating a potential comment from Presslord; I meant to specify "North" or "South Carolina" below and inadvertently grouped them together.......................Sorry.
Yep...Imagine what would have happened if he were a mod....:)
197. vis0

Quoting 185. StormTrackerScott:

The May update for the CFSv2 has come out and now shows ENSO 3.4 in the 3.0C to 3.5C range which surpasses the 1997 Super Event by a wide margin.e as now that we are near the end of the "Spring Barrier" models are very bullish on a El-Nino the likes we've never seen before this Summer.

What I think we are going to need is a team of storm chasers across FL to chase these extreme severe weather events that will start arriving come Fall as you can put a fork in Tornado Alley and Hurricane Season if this El-Nino continues to emerge like what is being forecast. As it stands I have about 2 to 3 people committed to making this happen.

Literally off the chart now.





i'm leaning more towards STs (have been saying since 2012 by using my nutty science BUT we are in the highest error RATE (AS STS & OTHERS MENTION). This does not have to be super it could be 2 or 3 yrs in a row including Modoki and remember as a prestigious WxU member stated also pay attention to the Hudson Bay trend, if they "work together" one can see Strong Nino AND strong TS just like they have to create weak Nino & weak TS...though i credit somewhat a  "majeeekhal"-device for tweaking nature

i THINK i FOUND WHY ITS OFF DA CHART::

I am starting to think that the low scenario for this weekend per the model run on Friday that we were discussing, and that Dr. Masters discussed and posted, was a cruel pre-season joke/ghost run directed towards the Blog; like the song:


Let's give 'em somethin' to talk about
(Somethin' to talk about)
A little mystery to figure out
(Somethin' to talk about)
Let's give 'em somethin' to talk about
How about love?
Last year, during the early part of ATL 2014 hurricane season, the GFS was sometimes producing/developing "ghost" storms that never happened. The timing also kept getting pushed back on the development.

Until we ACTUALLY see something form near the Bahamas, or burrow down to the surface, it is a wait and see situation. Since there are other models coming into "agreement" on a low pressure forming ...

Might get interesting!
200. vis0

Quoting 159. MaxWeather:

@ Pablosyn
Real interesting feature there in the SE Pacific...


CREDIT:: NOAA, University of Washington
SAT TYPE:: WV (coloured)
D&T:: On mp4
SUBJECT:: As mentioned by pablosyn & MaxWeather an interesting swirl in the SE Pacific.
(for reference, is the country of Chile in the extreme right of VID)

http://youtu.be/4lsBcVZzj3Y(774x442, below 600x334)



...you go swirl!
201. vis0
Quoting 192. hydrus:

Greetings Press. I have procured a solution to the lawn furniture issue. Most retailers sell furniture that are the equivalent of Styrofoam cups. We know what can happen when the cup is slightly less than half full even in a strong breeze, which are common especially along the coast. This is not only a waste of libation, but can make a mess out of the table situation. Lawn sets can be purchased that resist tipping in strong wind, and for only a few dollars more. I wanted to remind folks that this problem ( as well as many other wind related accidents ) can be avoided, and will save one from driving blocks to recover the lawn items.. Hope you are well.
WOW what an idea lawn furniture one can fill with beer to weigh them down...wooooooooooooooshh...what was that fast?... washi115!?, already waiting on line...THE PRODUCTION LINE truck depot!? for the new lawn furniture.
Quoting 201. vis0:

WOW what an idea lawn furniture one can fill with beer to weigh them down...wooooooooooooooshh...what was that fast?... washi115!?, already waiting on line...THE PRODUCTION LINE truck depot!? for the new lawn furniture.
Also a good stash spot where beer is prohibited....some folks REALLy love beer...a liquid nirvana of sorts..:)
203. beell
Quoting 198. weathermanwannabe:

I am starting to think that the low scenario for this weekend per the model run on Friday that we were discussing, and that Dr. Masters discussed and posted, was a cruel pre-season joke/ghost run directed towards the Blog; like the song:


There is a high probability of a baroclinically-induced surface low or at least an inverted trough forming off the east coast of Florida this week. A bit different than the purely convective-feedback issues in the gulf and Caribbean last early season.

The potential this week will have some synoptics (the southern stream shortwave) working for it. Hence the talk of a sub-tropical system.

Nothing looks too terribly strong right now-so it could end up that nothing noteworthy will develop.

NHC caught on now:Link
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031431
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form north of
the Bahamas later this week. This system could gradually acquire
some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves
slowly northward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued on this system by 11 AM EDT Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan
206. JRRP

Near africa is really warm
Quoting 203. beell:


There is a high probability of a baroclinically-induced surface low or at least an inverted trough forming off the east coast of Florida this week. A bit different than the purely convective-feedback issues in the gulf and Caribbean last early season.

The potential this week will have some synoptics (the southern stream shortwave) working for it. Hence the talk of a sub-tropical system.

Nothing looks too terribly strong right now-so it could end up that nothing noteworthy will develop.



The May updates coming out on both the Euro and CFSv2 are disturbing as both models feature a very strong Southern Jet lasting thru the Summer something you never see during the Summer months this far south. So we could be dealing with a set up something different than what one would expect during the Rainy Season across FL as numrous fronts could stall out over FL instead of the normal SE Flow around the base of the Bermuda High.
208. JRRP
.
Quoting 206. JRRP:



-NAO really helping Atlantic.
Quoting Climate175:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031431
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form north of
the Bahamas later this week. This system could gradually acquire
some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves
slowly northward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued on this system by 11 AM EDT Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan


Interesting next week at the very least... :)
211. beell
Chairs
Galveston Island, East Beaches.
September, 2008-Post Ike






Good Morning all..

Interesting discussion from NWS, Wilmington, NC..a lot of uncertainty

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.


INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.
Quoting 212. ncstorm:
Good Morning all..

Interesting discussion from NWS, Wilmington, NC..a lot of uncertainty

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM SUNDAY...BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE THE
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS MID WEEK.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN SWINGING BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN A WELL
DEFINED HYBRID SYSTEM AND A WEAK BARELY CLOSED OFF LOW ALONG A
TROPICAL WAVE. ONE THING THAT SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY CERTAIN IS THE
STATE OF THE STEERING FLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE UNDER 5H
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS WILL WILL LEAD TO THE LOW MEANDERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
FOR MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE PERIOD.


INITIALLY THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH FROM THE COAST THAT PRECIP IS NOT A
CONCERN THUS WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED DRY FORECAST WED. POP
FORECAST FOR THU THROUGH SAT IS LESS CLEAR. COLD FRONT TRIES TO
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SUCCESS IT WILL HAVE.
HOWEVER THE LOW OFF THE COAST WILL BE WORKING TO SPREAD A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD BE WEAKENING.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS RATHER
LOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW SO AT THIS
POINT IT IS HARD TO PIN DOWN ANY ONE DAY AS A FAVORED DAY FOR
PRECIP. FOR NOW PLAN TO BUMP PRECIP CHANCES LATE IN THE PERIOD A
BIT BUT NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT. HIGH WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW CLIMO WITH LOWS RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE.


GFS has a stronger high over the Mid Atlantic which pushes this wannabe system into N FL late next week but all models are all over the place.
Quoting 209. tiggerhurricanes2001:


-NAO really helping Atlantic.
Will check back with everyone tomorrow and enjoy the rest of the weekend. Irrespective of a possible low off the SE per the current thinking, the Atlantic is a graveyard at the moment. Would note however that the E-Pac continues to prime towards the start of that season on May 15th. See Yall Tomorrow:


With models trending stronger each month with El-Nino as opposed to the trending weaker at this time in 2014 I suspect numbers of 5 2 1 might be more likely what we see this year across the Atlantic Basin for Hurricane Season. Also not only are models trending stronger but they also are indicating the strongest El-nino ever. Well see how it goes as these trends are interesting to say the least.

Quoting StormTrackerScott:
With models trending stronger each month with El-Nino as opposed to the trending weaker at this time in 2014 I suspect numbers of 5 2 1 might be more likely what we see this year across the Atlantic Basin for Hurricane Season. Also not only are models trending stronger but they also are indicating the strongest El-nino ever. Well see how it goes as these trends are interesting to say the least.



Can YOU please stop downcasting this hurricane season??? Does it really matter if we have 0-0-1? What if that " 1 " is over your house?
Sunday hello from Europe/Germany under the flow of the atmospheric river from the Caribbean (see post #86) which provides a nice excuse for a lot of folks to just lazily stay at home, according to their twitter news :-) While the inflow of moisture and consequently a lot of precipitation caused some (flash)flooding and high waters in the regions of western Alps and southern Germany, it has avoided my place near Frankfurt until noon today. You can see it on the map below that currently we get some constant rains, and they are still needed after a very dry spring earlier.

Looking at the map below you may notice very high temperatures in Tunisia (37C = 99F). This is the top of a Saharian heatwave which will invade southern Europe the next days and even reach Germany on Tuesday - from where it should be quickly expelled on the same day by thunderstorms. So some interesting weather ahead of us ...




Current airmass.


Surface temperature in Europe on Tuesday according to German ICON model. Darker orange colors = temperature in the nineties Fahrenheit. Source.
Quoting 218. hurricane23:


Can YOU please stop downcasting this hurricane season??? Does it really matter if we have 0-0-1? What if that " 1 " is over your house?


It hurts to see this on the models but don't shoot the messanger.


Michael Ventrice@MJVentrice · May 2

This will be the summer of the #SubtropicalJet; East Pacific-to-Atlantic connection established.
i'm leaning more towards STs (have been saying since 2012 by using my nutty science BUT we are in the highest error RATE (AS STS & OTHERS MENTION). This does not have to be super it could be 2 or 3 yrs in a row including Modoki and remember as a prestigious WxU member stated also pay attention to the Hudson Bay trend, if they "work together" one can see Strong Nino AND strong TS just like they have to create weak Nino & weak TS...though i credit somewhat a "majeeekhal"-device for tweaking nature


vis...the may ENSO model error rate for just the next climatic season is over 65 percent
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


It hurts to see this on the models but don't shoot the messanger.


Michael Ventrice@MJVentrice · May 2

This will be the summer of the #SubtropicalJet; East Pacific-to-Atlantic connection established.


All you need is a pocket to open up. Frankly FL in particular has seem some devastating tc's during very slow years. Watch gulf this year and of SE coast.
Quoting 221. ricderr:
i'm leaning more towards STs (have been saying since 2012 by using my nutty science BUT we are in the highest error RATE (AS STS & OTHERS MENTION). This does not have to be super it could be 2 or 3 yrs in a row including Modoki and remember as a prestigious WxU member stated also pay attention to the Hudson Bay trend, if they "work together" one can see Strong Nino AND strong TS just like they have to create weak Nino & weak TS...though i credit somewhat a "majeeekhal"-device for tweaking nature


vis...the may ENSO model error rate for just the next climatic season is over 65 percent


You can't ignore the fact that models keep trending stronger and what the CFSv2 is forecasting on its May update is just insane. Even if that model is off lets say 1.0C still have a 2.2C El-Nino again even if it is off by 1C. Staggering numbers if you ask me. May 2014 we saw this model trend weaker with Nino 3.4 this year the exact opposite.
Quoting 222. hurricane23:


All you need is a pocket to open up. Frankly FL in particular has seem some devastating tc's during very slow years. Watch gulf this year and of SE coast.


No one is disagreeing with you there. I think FL gets hit this year but again overall numbers look very low. Maybe a 1997 analog package.
temps reached 96 degrees here in the borderline yesterday....that's really nothing in this world filled with modern conveniences of air conditioned homes, cars and businesses.....well...that is until one of your modern conveniences goes on the brink.....i/e your air conditioner....still awaiting shipment of the new condenser unit...last night at 10...the thermometer in the house read 86 degrees......today we are enjoying the amenities of the air conditioned office...luckily we have a big screen tv....fully stocked fridge....a waiting room designed like a living room.....we'll survive.....today is only supposed to reach a high of 86
Also in May 2014 we didn't see a sustained forecast for westerly wind anomalies like this across the Pacific. This is likely the reason whu the CFSv2 has gone nuts with El-Nino.

Quoting 218. hurricane23:


Can YOU please stop downcasting this hurricane season??? Does it really matter if we have 0-0-1? What if that " 1 " is over your house?



you no what if you dont like it TOO BAD we will DOWNCAST this hurricane season has march has we want and you cant tell us what we can or can not do or say its a free word and we can say what we want how dear you?


am all so downcasting this season if you want name storms look in the W and E PAC thats the place too to if you want a name storm too track if your want a name storm in the Gulf or else where will good luck too you your going too have a vary slow and long season things look march wores out there then it was in the 2014 season
No one can predict anything as to the Tropical Atlantic Season to come,

92 is prime example of a "slow" season as the A Storm didn't form till after Mid August.

That A storm also went on to kill in 2 states and caused Billions in damages.

Perspective comes from hindsight.

2015 is ahead of us..all.
It's beyond me why anyone is taking the CFSv2 NINO forecast seriously to any sort of degree, let alone posting its forecast in all bold (as if people can't see your post?) & I've already discussed some of the obvious issues w/ the ideas for a "very strong" El Nino, but I expect nothing less from Scott....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_5d0.png

Here we go!
Quoting 232. HurriHistory:


Here we go!


Blog Buster
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031431
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form north of
the Bahamas later this week. This system could gradually acquire
some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves
slowly northward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued on this system by 11 AM EDT Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Good Morning fellow bloggers. I am starting to get on board with Scott and the rest of the bloggers who are pro moderate to strong El Nino event this year. Looking at the recent Kelvin waves providing strong Westerlies across the Central pacific and moving toward to Eastern pacific. and the rapid decrease in pressures in the West and Central Pacific migrating East via a strong MJO. I don't think its out of the ordinary to think this El Nino will be strong or at least moderately strong throughout Pacific Basin. In fact, reading several El Nino articles and Dr. William Grays forecast, I believe we can get to 2 degrees above normal SSTs by late summer August and September and at least moderate strength in the fall. The jury is still out this winter, as I am not qualified to make a prediction that far out. Thank you fellow bloggers God Bless and have a Great Day
Quoting 234. Stormchaser2007:

000
ABNT20 KNHC 031431
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form north of
the Bahamas later this week. This system could gradually acquire
some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves
slowly northward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued on this system by 11 AM EDT Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent



see post 205 has its all ready been posted your late
Scott I don't think its out of the realm of possibility to see +3 degree El Nino this year. Man that would be Awesome. I don't think humanity has ever crossed that threshold before. Ladies and gentleman grab your popcorn because its goin be a wild show to behold!!
xx/xx/xx
Scott I sent you a message in your inbox today
AMZ101-040245-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1043 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N51W TO 27N65W
TO EASTERN CUBA. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH THROUGH MON.
THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT NW MON AND TUE INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A LOW OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT
AND SHIFTING N OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH THU.

$$
You can't ignore the fact that models keep trending stronger and what the CFSv2 is forecasting on its May update is just insane. Even if that model is off lets say 1.0C still have a 2.2C El-Nino again even if it is off by 1C. Staggering numbers if you ask me. May 2014 we saw this model trend weaker with Nino 3.4 this year the exact opposite.

scott...your focus is on the outlier models.....and we will agree that the cfsv2 is insane.....and i will agree...as last year the cfsv2 model dropped from a means of 1.5 last april to 1.3 in may.....both so far wrong it's not funny...but to extrapolate that it's only wrong 1 degree makes no sense to me...last year.....it was off during the spring barrier by more than 50 percent.....however trying to find a trend over the years there just isn't one...so...i can't agree with your reasoning...

now....while you point out the ecmwf...and the cfsv2....looking at the consensus of the dynamical models....april of 2015 they were at 1.2...we'll have to wait a few weeks to see that average for may.......if you want to extrapolate last years april average as compared to real data.....then it was off by 45 percent......so if you want to use that type of analogy this year..(i choose not to however)...this years anomaly would top out by 0.8....a weak event....

so....personally...i'll just wait until the spring barrier ends.....and then see how the models trend
Here we go!




cat 5 heading for south and north carolina.....may god have mercy on their souls
Quoting 230. Webberweather53:

It's beyond me why anyone is taking the CFSv2 NINO forecast seriously to any sort of degree.


I agree. I don't get why someone would take its forecast seriously considering it's been consistently wrong for the last year or so and spring time forecasting errors are very high. I think it would be better to wait for the Mid-May plume model run and get the average for those. Mid-Aprils run showed an average peak strength of 1.1C:



Link

Although models have been trending upwards, so I suspect the mid-May run may show a peak of 1.2-1.5C.
Waters in the anticipated development region are WAY warmer than normal! Wish I could track this thing on the classic site! :(

Link
Just passed 80 degrees for the first time since September 28th! A few black flies are starting to buzz around and the trees are budding. The daffodils have been out for awhile now. The Laurentide Ice Sheet has officially retreated from South-central New Hampshire.
I don't think people realize how difficult it is to get a strong El Nino. To meet that threshold, waters in Nino 3.4 region must average 1.5C over a 3-month period.

Based on a combination of statistical and dynamical model guidance and the state of the atmosphere/ocean over the past few months, a moderate El Nino is likely to occur this summer. Anything higher is questionable.
250. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, Univ. of Washington
IMAGERY:: wv (COLOURED)
D&T:: on aniGif
SUBJECT:: trying to beat pablosyn at posting late breaking SA (worldwide) weather...i mean a deepening LOW off SE Argentina.

image host
ok envo........let's go with your 1.2 to 1.5......and let's go with last years error rate of 45 percent...so...with your 1.5...that would be a weak event......

now this blog loves excitement.....a weak or even moderate event just aint gonna cut it.....not to mention...that a weak to moderate event is what the paid experts are forecasting the most confidence of.......so...focusing on the outlier models.....is a whole lot more exciting...and if by some odd event they do pan out...then you just beat the experts in a sense.......

in that perspective...people like me...that trust the experts.......believe in consensus and not outliers....kind of like a square peg in a round hole at times
Quoting 244. Envoirment:



I agree. I don't get why someone would take its forecast seriously considering it's been consistently wrong for the last year or so and spring time forecasting errors are very high. I think it would be better to wait for the Mid-May plume model run and get the average for those. Mid-Aprils run showed an average peak strength of 1.1C:



Link

Although models have been trending upwards, so I suspect the mid-May run may show a peak of 1.2-1.5C.


I'm sure I've mentioned this before, but models such as the CFSv2 (which in this case is the high outlier) tend to overreact to intraseasonal oceanic Kelvin Wave regimes, in this case, it's clearly over amplifying the current downwelling phase & despite the fact that it's producing a "Hybrid" E-CP NINO (most of which are moderate El Ninos, BTW) w/ relatively warmer than normal water surrounding Australia (esp. compared to the 1997-98 & 1982-83 "Super" NINOs). I honestly think the seasonal climate model intensity forecasts for ENSO is a joke at this range & could really care less what they're saying, (ENSO phase prediction is obviously horrific as well outside of an event that's already in progress or if we're in a predictable, high-amplitude, short term-harmonic (strong NINO -> Strong nina, etc...). I tend to prefer to analyze previous historical events & weigh those against the evolution of the event thus far & of course take into account other background conditions (super intrseasonal (>90 days) surface currents, WWBs, SST, SOI anomalies & progression, IO multidecadal warming/E Hem interference, hemispheric PDO synchronicity, QBO, even solar to a small extent, among other things of course)...


Quoting 238. WeatherConvoy:

Scott I don't think its out of the realm of possibility to see +3 degree El Nino this year. Man that would be Awesome. I don't think humanity has ever crossed that threshold before. Ladies and gentleman grab your popcorn because its goin be a wild show to behold!!


I don't even know why I bothered responding to this... You do realize that the strongest El Nino in the historical record (1997-98) only achieved a peak ONI of +2.4C? Even if conditions were ideal, suggesting a such a scenario is nuts & no that wouldn't be "awesome"...
The air is still pretty dry here in S.W. Florida.
But the winds are just starting to swing around to the east.
Dewpoints way down in the mid 50s, which is low for us.


I don't think people realize how difficult it is to get a strong El Nino. To meet that threshold, waters in Nino 3.4 region must average 1.5C over a 3-month period.

an excellent point....many here lately have been explaining that...and i believe the more it is mentioned the more people will understand what is involved.....it won't though....stop the postings of a strong event....as i mentioned before...there's an excitement factor involved.....moderate event?....there's no excitement in that....same as many do not want to accept that this year will probably be average at best and chances are high it will be below average......there's no excitement in that either
255. JRRP
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I don't think people realize how difficult it is to get a strong El Nino. To meet that threshold, waters in Nino 3.4 region must average 1.5C over a 3-month period.

Based on a combination of statistical and dynamical model guidance, a moderate El Nino is likely to occur this summer. Anything higher is questionable.

that is correct
No change in my thinking on the evolving El Nino... Moderate to perhaps briefly strong. We're already over 1C on Nino 3.4 and I doubt we see a prolonged fall below that value for several months. Nino 1+2 will be even warmer, we should see 2C average anomalies there soon. I don't understand how anyone could say we won't have at least a moderate El Nino though... we're already there, obviously need 3 months of 1C anomalies but I'm sure we'll get that. Having said that, yes, of course the CFS is overdone. Very nice +PDO, +ENSO pattern out there:

Quoting 256. MAweatherboy1:

No change in my thinking on the evolving El Nino... Moderate to perhaps briefly strong. We're already over 1C on Nino 3.4 and I doubt we see a prolonged fall below that value for several months. Nino 1+2 will be even warmer, we should see 2C average anomalies there soon. I don't understand how anyone could say we won't have at least a moderate El Nino though... we're already there, obviously need 3 months of 1C anomalies but I'm sure we'll get that. Having said that, yes, of course the CFS is overdone. Very nice +PDO, +ENSO pattern out there:




By the time hurricane season is in swing we'll have better data, I would say by September we could have a moderate ENSO at least.



And while we're on the subject, I saw this the other day

Quoting 229. Patrap:

No one can predict anything as to the Tropical Atlantic Season to come,

92 is prime example of a "slow" season as the A Storm didn't form till after Mid August.

That A storm also went on to kill in 2 states and caused Billions in damages.

Perspective comes from hindsight.

2015 is ahead of us..all.


It's crazy how after almost 23 years Andrew is still in the top 5 costliest storms; all of the others at the top are within the last 10 years, a testament to how violent he was. Even if codes were different in 1992, the power to be able to shred an entire air force base and be capable of taking nearly whole plywood sheets through palm trees is incredible.
Quoting 257. win1gamegiantsplease:



By the time hurricane season is in swing we'll have better data, I would say by September we could have a moderate ENSO at least.



And while we're on the subject, I saw this the other day






we are all ready at moderate EL nino closeing in on strong EL nino right now we are heading in too a super super strong EL nino by summer comes not moderate has we are all ready in a moderate that now we are closeing in on strong
Quoting 211. beell:




How long did it take before media were allowed to fly over Bolivar? I remember no one was allowed to directly after the storm.
Quoting 252. Webberweather53:



I'm sure I've mentioned this before, but models such as the CFSv2 (which in this case is the high outlier) tend to overreact to intraseasonal oceanic Kelvin Wave regimes, in this case, it's clearly over amplifying the current downwelling phase & despite the fact that it's producing a "Hybrid" E-CP NINO (most of which are moderate El Ninos, BTW) w/ relatively warmer than normal water surrounding Australia (esp. compared to the 1997-98 & 1982-83 "Super" NINOs). I honestly think the seasonal climate model intensity forecasts for ENSO is a joke at this range & could really care less what they're saying, (ENSO phase prediction is obviously horrific as well outside of an event that's already in progress or if we're in a predictable, high-amplitude, short term-harmonic (strong NINO -> Strong nina, etc...). I tend to prefer to analyze previous historical events & weigh those against the evolution of the event thus far & of course take into account other background conditions (super intrseasonal (>90 days) surface currents, WWBs, SST, SOI anomalies & progression, IO multidecadal warming/E Hem interference, hemispheric PDO synchronicity, QBO, even solar to a small extent, among other things of course)...




I don't even know why I bothered responding to this... You do realize that the strongest El Nino in the historical record (1997-98) only achieved a peak ONI of +2.4C? Even if conditions were ideal, suggesting a such a scenario is nuts & no that wouldn't be "awesome"...


No, it definitely wouldn't be 'awesome' for hundreds of thousands of sea lion pups dying on the west coast of the Americas because their mothers couldn't catch enough fish to produce milk. Or for the 90% of seabirds that die off in major El Nino events.

Nor for the Indonesian orang utans burning alive in the forest canopy as wildfires raged out of control. But, it's a fact of life that people are fascinated by train wrecks, and for those interested in climate extremes, El Nino is just that.
Eric Blake @EricBlake12 4m 4 minutes ago
Eric Blake retweeted Abraham Levy
Good graphic showing the oceanic kelvin wave dramatically warming SSTs near South America


Quoting 253. Sfloridacat5:

The air is still pretty dry here in S.W. Florida.
But the winds are just starting to swing around to the east.
Dewpoints way down in the mid 50s, which is low for us.


Very nice weather considering the muggy hot stuff that was in place.
Plywood is already up here. Lol.

Quoting 243. ricderr:

Here we go!




cat 5 heading for south and north carolina.....may god have mercy on their souls
Possible Tropical or Subtropical system in the SE Pacífic, the same system that i talked yesterday.


Really Impressive:






Satellite yesterday:
266. vis0
Quoting 223. StormTrackerScott:



You can't ignore the fact that models keep trending stronger and what the CFSv2 is forecasting on its May update is just insane. Even if that model is off lets say 1.0C still have a 2.2C El-Nino again even if it is off by 1C. Staggering numbers if you ask me. May 2014 we saw this model trend weaker with Nino 3.4 this year the exact opposite.

(apology to experts) Just like you can see a LOW forming at a high pressure level as the LOWs genesis / drop off point began at a higher than expected pressure, i can see El Nino / ENSo-e dropping a bit with a twist.
Now even though El Nino will be still having a strong "footprint" (looking like Moderate or a smidgen below) , to the Atlantic this "dropping a bit" is a big deal as the drop is a exponential amount from being so anomalously high. Being the Nino drop is from such a high anomaly area that this might allow just enough ceiling for a TS to get its act together between sheering ('cause El Nino will be weakening a bit from such a high level, deeper pockets of tranquility between sheer will develop) then as the sheer builds back up it helps evacuate spent energy from TS/ Hurricanes and cap'n trough might inadvertently steer storms into the coast. Tag teaming as cap'n trough & the nino wonder. QUE!?...its scripted

Ya should have seen me in a skit titled "bananana FATMAN!" (played by me ...before anyone gets in trouble no it wasn't a stretch for me to play that role) instead of POWs we spun up gas expletives. circa 1980s NYC public Access...in "loo" or "l'eau" of that clip (don't have enjoy dis::

image host

sorry the lyrics are not "...before it snow snows."
Quoting Pablosyn:

A strong swirl AND a 30%er off NC! Season almost a month early..
Crazy, man...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
252 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
LOOKS LIKE THE CRAZY WEATHER OF APRIL WILL BE EXTENDING INTO EARLY
MAY, BUT MORE ON THAT LATER. CURRENTLY, A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN
PERSISTS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES BEGINNING TO SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THIS HAS INCREASED OUR PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE SURFACE WIND
ALREADY GUSTING TO OVER 20 KNOTS ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE CRAZY WEATHER
POSSIBLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ON MONDAY, A WEAK SOUTHERN
STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ALONG WITH THE
SURFACE FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY WILL BEGIN TO PULL MOISTURE
BACK TO THE NORTH WITH FORECAST PWAT CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.4"
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND 1.8" MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN REACH SOMEWHERE NEAR THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA DURING TUESDAY MORNING AND THEN ONLY
DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH PWAT`S
REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA WHILE AT THE SAME TIME INDUCING LOW
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE TO THE EAST OVER THE SOUTHWEST BAHAMAS.
TEMPERATURES AT THE 500MB LEVEL ARE ALSO FORECAST TO BE NEAR
RECORD COLD FOR EARLY MAY BY TUESDAY MORNING BEING IN THE RANGE OF
-11 TO -12C. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN VERY CLOSE TO THIS SOLUTION
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TWO
TROUGHS. THERE HAS ALSO BEEN GOOD MODEL AGGREEEMENT IN SHOWING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ALL OF THIS ALONG WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL LEAD TO VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE LOW CONFIDENCE HOWEVER IN THE EXACT RAINFALL
TOTALS THAT COULD POSSIBLY UNFOLD. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS ALSO BEEN
SHOWING THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE TO REMAIN OFFSHORE SO FOR
NOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEPICT THIS SET UP. HOWEVER, ANY LITTLE SHIFT
TO THE WEST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING ISSUES IS
CERTAINLY THERE.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE
LOW WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEAST AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
PLENTY OF RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING
HIGH. BY FRIDAY, AS THE LOW INTENSIFIES OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER SOUTH INTO THE AREA DRYING THINGS OUT
FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE
WEEK, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST BECOMES VERY SMALL. A MASSIVE
CUT-OFF LOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WHICH WILL
AMPLIFY A RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROUGH. THIS WILL PREVENT IT FROM MOVING MUCH AND IT BEGINS TO
MEANDER ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE GFS
ACTUALLY NOW SHOWS THE LOW DRIFTING BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY APPROACHING THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA. SO EVEN
THOUGH CURRENT THINKING IS FOR DRIER CONDITIONS, WITH THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE EVOLUTION OF THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
CMC says we've got action in just under 3 days


Quoting 264. HaoleboySurfEC:

Plywood is already up here. Lol.


Plywood shutters vaporized during Andrew. Excluding the sheets that were slammed into solid objects.
ecmwf sees it in 4 days but does nothing with it

gfs starts to get excited in about 4 days


navgem starts the ball rolling in 72 hours.......

Quoting 265. pablosyn:

Possible Tropical or Subtropical system in the SE Pacífic, the same system that i talked yesterday.


Really Impressive:






Satellite yesterday:



I never really thought i'd ever see a cyclone in the SE Pacific. Lol. Wow, that's cool,
XX/AOI/XX
Quoting hydrus:
Plywood shutters vaporized during Andrew. Excluding the sheets that were slammed into assorted solid objects.


Here's a good read on Hurricane Andrew if you haven't already seen it.

REANALYSIS OF HURRICANE ANDREW’S INTENSITY
Link
Quoting 261. yonzabam:

No, it definitely wouldn't be 'awesome' for hundreds of thousands of sea lion pups dying on the west coast of the Americas because their mothers couldn't catch enough fish to produce milk. Or for the 90% of seabirds that die off in major El Nino events.

Nor for the Indonesian orang utans burning alive in the forest canopy as wildfires raged out of control. But, it's a fact of life that people are fascinated by train wrecks, and for those interested in climate extremes, El Nino is just that.

I'd hate to see a strong El Nino too (although this doesn't mean we shouldn't have a close look at the current development in here). I still remember a German TV-footage about the impacts of an EL Nino on wildlife many, many years ago - probably connected to the last very strong one in 1997. Awful pictures!

Here is a short video about the impacts on Galapago's wildlife (with current pictures of these amazing animals alive):
Quoting 270. hydrus:

Plywood shutters vaporized during Andrew. Excluding the sheets that were slammed into solid objects.


Natures own Shuriken(throwing stars).
Quoting 275. JrWeathermanFL:

I never really thought i'd ever see a cyclone in the SE Pacific. Lol. Wow, that's cool,

Indeed. And thanks to Pablo for pointing this out. You can watch the system lonely swirling in its bassin here as well:

Saved loop. Click it to enlarge. Source.
281. VR46L
Quoting 265. pablosyn:

Possible Tropical or Subtropical system in the SE Pacífic, the same system that i talked yesterday.


Really Impressive:






Satellite yesterday:



Has a few fronts to shed first .....

the rapid change in velocity (gusts) makes major hurricanes even more dangerous.
I am writing a blog (my first) from the earlier mentioned possible subtropical/tropical cyclone since 1 May: Link I am trying to post fresh data at least twice a day.
Someone probably said it but I just noticed that LOW on the NHC is <40 now.

Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Quoting 276. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XX/AOI/XX


What's the difference between you putting XX/XXX/XX and you putting a XX/AOI/XX on things? Do you have a system?


30% Chance Within the next 5 Days, Just an Outlook, No Hype Intended.
AMZ101-040815-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
410 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM 25N65W TO EASTERN CUBA
WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH THROUGH MON. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT NW MON
AND TUE INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BEFORE DEEPENING INTO A LOW OVER
THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT AND SHIFTING N OF THE BAHAMAS
THROUGH THU.

$$
The CMC is really the most interesting..

Wednesday it forms



Thursday it goes sub 1000



Friday it moves away



Then Monday...



Wednesday...



So pretty interesting IF it pans out...I'll try to find some analogs besides Beryl.
Quoting 285. 69044NE:


What's the difference between you putting XX/XXX/XX and you putting a XX/AOI/XX on things? Do you have a system?


XX/AOI/XX Area Of Interest
XXL/INV/XX Area Of Invest
XXL/D/XX/XX Disturbance
00L/TD/A/CX Tropical Depression
00L/TS/A/CX Tropical Storm
00L/H/A/C1 Hurricane
00L/H/A/C2
00L/MH/A/C3 Major Hurricane
00L/MH/A/C4
00L/MH/A/C5
NWS ILM AFD:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SUNDAY...THE ENTIRETY OF THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON
WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HYBRID/SUB-TROPICAL LOW OFF MEANDERING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN STRENGTHEN INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WELL OFFSHORE. THIS OCCURS IN A REGION OF VERY WEAK STEERING FLOW IN
THE VICINITY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...AND
THUS THERE IS VERY LITTLE CONFIDENCE IN WHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO
ONCE IT DEVELOPS...AND GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE IN HOW THE LOW
WILL TRACK. HOWEVER...THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A HYBRID-
LOW WILL DEVELOP...BECOMING WARM CORE AND LIKELY STRENGTHENING
THANKS TO A COMBINATION OF LATENT HEAT RELEASE FROM 80 DEGREE WATERS
IN THE GULF STREAM...BAROCLINIC INSTABILITY DUE TO CHANGE IN WATER
TEMPS NEAR THE COAST...AND GOOD VENTILATION THROUGH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT. WILL NOT MAKE ANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO POP/WX IN THE EXTENDED
DUE TO SUCH LOW CONFIDENCE...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE INHERITED POP FOR
THE THU-SUN TIMEFRAME...HIGHEST CHANCE AT THE COAST. STILL...CANNOT
FOCUS ON ANY SPECIFIC DAY BEING THE MOST FAVORABLE FOR PRECIP AS THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS SO WIDE. ON THE BRIGHT SIDE...TEMPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD SHOULD BE ABOVE CLIMO...ESPECIALLY AWAY FROM THE COAST.
Lest we forget today's anniversary, a tweet from NWS Norman's Warning Co-ordination Meteorologist.


(Central Oklahoma) Forecast for May 3, 2015

RIP Classic wu!
18z NAM

84 hours
NWS Melbourne Florida, seems like every other weather office has a different scenario.

THU-SAT...WHILE THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THE SAME GENERAL PICTURE
OF A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE THE FL EAST COAST AND
MOVING NWD...THERE CONTINUES TO BE DIFFS IN STRENGTH/POSITION OF THE
SURFACE LOW. THE ECM REMAINING WEAKEST/FARTHEST EACH OF THE MODEL
SUITE WITH OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE MORE WOUND UP AND CENTERED CLOSER TO
FL. WHILE THIS HAS SOME LIMITED EFFECT ON MEAN MOISTURE...THE MAIN
IMPACT WILL BE ON WINDS/SEAS OVER THE ATLC. I SUSPECT A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER/FARTHER EAST SOLUTION MAY WIND UP VERIFYING. IN ANY EVENT...
ALL THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE LOW LINGERING OFFSHORE THE SE COAST INTO
THIS WEEKEND...AND HENCE THE FL EAST COAST IS LOOKING AT SEVERAL
DAYS WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL SEAS/SURF. NEAR NORMAL TEMPS THU-FRI
PROGGED TO RISE TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.
Quoting 265. pablosyn:

Possible Tropical or Subtropical system in the SE Pacífic, the same system that i talked yesterday.


Really Impressive:






Satellite yesterday:



Easily one of the hardest places on the planet for a tropical cyclone to develop. It looks somewhat attached to a front in those images, and the map VR46L seems to confirm that but it's an impressive sight! I've always wanted to see something try to spinup there and this definitely was a contender.

XX/AOI/XX/

One man's meat is another man's poison ...

In India's grain bowl, recent rains ease weak monsoon worries | Reuters
May 1, 2015
NEW DELHI (Reuters) - Recent unseasonal rainfall in India has come as a blessing for some farmers as it has replenished reservoirs in parts of the country, allaying concerns stemming from forecasts for a weak summer monsoon this year.
High water levels should also help ease the pain for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government which is struggling to address rural distress after the unseasonal rains damaged winter crops like wheat, rapeseed and potato.
But these rains have driven up reservoir levels in paddy-growing states of Punjab and Himachal Pradesh, the country's grain bowl in the north, to higher than both a year ago and the average of the past decade, government data showed on Friday.
"This is a case of cold comfort, but the excessive rainfall that we have witnessed in the past six weeks have replenished reservoirs which would help mitigate the impact of deficient monsoon rains," said Aditi Nayar, senior economist at ICRA, the Indian arm of ratings agency Moody's.
India is expected to see below-average rains this year as the emergence of an El Nino weather pattern will likely cause dry spells across South Asia.
The monsoons are vital for India as its farm sector accounts for 14 percent of its economy, and half of its farm land lacks irrigation. Weak rains have cut farm output in the past, stoking food price inflation in the country.
But this year, there is unlikely to be a big shortage even if monsoons turn out to be weak as the government storehouses are brimming with rice and wheat.
However, for millions of farmers, the fate of a single crop can be the difference between life and death.
Dozens of farmers have committed suicide after the damage from unseasonal rains, denting Modi's popularity in the countryside and presenting an opportunity to the opposition Congress party to tap into farmers' anger ahead of elections in the agrarian state of Bihar later this year. ...

-----------------------

Good night everybody!
showers stay well offshore e cen fl. could we be entering a drought? e cen fl.
299. beell
Not much happening over the eastern gulf right now. Should begin to see development of a surface trough from central Cuba across the Bahamas by daylight on Tuesday as the upper shortwave amplifies and provides a bit more focused diffluence over the Bahamas and offshore of the FL coast. Not much difference in the models regarding timing or development up to this point.


05/03 18Z GFS 10m temps, winds, mslp-valid 12Z Tuesday


05/03 18Z GFS 300 mb winds, heights-valid 12Z Tuesday
There is possibility of some severe weather in South Florida on Tuesday - Wednesday even if we are not directly effected by whatever this Low Pressure turns out to be tropical, hybrid, subtropical whatever. I would not be surprised if it meandered off the coast of Florida for a little bit if the Ridge builds over it strong. Oh BTW webberweather I was giving EXTREME possibilities with El nino, I fully know and understand there has never been a +3 degree but you can never know. Nobody here is God. We are here speculating weather, providing scientific basis and explanation for weather, or like me Loving Extreme Weather. YES I LOVE EXTREME WEATHER. If that makes me CRAZY. Then I'm nutz. I don't want anyone hurt or killed I am just a weather geek and MET student that's all. I am the one standing in a Hurricane, Blizzard, Severe Thunderstorm, ETC. That's Me. I had a double shot of espresso this morning so I got super stoked about a potential super Nino.


Good evening , getting hammered with much needed rain!




Hello boys and girls!


303. beell



(click images for specific model Cyclone phase evolution page)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

XX/AOI/XX/




And now we wait to see if a low forms from the stalled out front.
Quoting 301. stormpetrol:



Good evening , getting hammered with much needed rain!






Nice to see you SP.
Looks to be some nice moderate, even strong storms about.
I thought I even caught a pixel of intensive there but it turned out to be the map outline of Booby Cay.
Quoting 300. WeatherConvoy:

There is possibility of some severe weather in South Florida on Tuesday - Wednesday even if we are not directly effected by whatever this Low Pressure turns out to be tropical, hybrid, subtropical whatever. I would not be surprised if it meandered off the coast of Florida for a little bit if the Ridge builds over it strong. Oh BTW webberweather I was giving EXTREME possibilities with El nino, I fully know and understand there has never been a +3 degree but you can never know. Nobody here is God. We are here speculating weather, providing scientific basis and explanation for weather, or like me Loving Extreme Weather. YES I LOVE EXTREME WEATHER. If that makes me CRAZY. Then I'm nutz. I don't want anyone hurt or killed I am just a weather geek and MET student that's all. I am the one standing in a Hurricane, Blizzard, Severe Thunderstorm, ETC. That's Me. I had a double shot of espresso this morning so I got super stoked about a potential super Nino.


You mean unrealistic possibilities... Other than staring blankly into a model w/ a notorious history for over-amplifying downwelling oceanic KWs, pure speculation, & some anecdotal evidence on your part, there's absolutely nothing that suggests we'll even come close to that insane threshold. Unless you can provide some viable scientific reasoning beyond doubt, as to why you even went ahead to mention this fictitious value of +3.0C, then you likely can't be taken seriously. If there isn't a legitimate possibility of occurrence, it's likely not even worth mentioning...
Quoting 301. stormpetrol:



Good evening , getting hammered with much needed rain!







Stormpetrol, you are not wrong...got caught out in North Sound this hour..a wet boat ride home~!
Quoting 301. stormpetrol:



Good evening , getting hammered with much needed rain!







Yo, stranger!
309. beell
Quoting 304. TimTheWxMan:




And now we wait to see if a low forms from the stalled out front.


Eye-catching narrow N/S plume of instability advecting northward along a dp boundary that showed up this morning. Steve Gregory might call it a dryline of sorts.




Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 031431
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form north of
the Bahamas later this week. This system could gradually acquire
some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves
slowly northward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued on this system by 11 AM EDT Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan
Tuckerman's Ravine!

Quoting 247. wartsttocs:

Just passed 80 degrees for the first time since September 28th! A few black flies are starting to buzz around and the trees are budding. The daffodils have been out for awhile now. The Laurentide Ice Sheet has officially retreated from South-central New Hampshire.
see if we can get an inflow off the warm waters tonight aid dev later

XX/AOI/XX
could be a whole different animal by morning who knows with these things
314. JRRP
Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 3 minHace 3 minutos
Last 8 CFSv2 forecasts also have below-normal wind shear along 20N in Atlantic for September despite El Nino:
Quoting 302. Grothar:

Hello boys and girls!





Shush
Gettin close to that time of year again for tropical storms, I see predictions are for a slow , below average season!
18z nam hr 84

Nice to see Gro and Hank back!
gfs 18z hr 84

Quoting 317. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

18z nam hr 84




Gonna be hard to sail in that
Quoting 318. GeoffreyWPB:

Nice to see Gro and Hank back!


And you are????
Quoting 320. presslord:



Gonna be hard to sail in that

be a little bouncy maybe some wet

gfs hr 84 18z 10 m winds KMH WIND SCALE


Heading back towards normal, whatever that is/was..... shown as 79/54
today was 78.1/60.5 the lows just aren't anymore....
Quoting 322. Grothar:



And you are????


IntelliGeoff!

WU Infographics

Link
Quoting 310. caribbeantracker01:


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 031431
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form north of
the Bahamas later this week. This system could gradually acquire
some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves
slowly northward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued on this system by 11 AM EDT Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan





your late its all ready been posted see post 205
Quoting 329. Tazmanian:





your late its all ready been posted see post 205


And I saw it last week. :)
Quoting 330. Grothar:



And I saw it last week. :)


You might have seen it last week, but I saw it first...
332. ch2os
Quoting 331. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You might have seen it last week, but I saw it first...


And it's sometimes nice to have it repeated on ocassion, just in case others didn't see it. :)
Quoting 301. stormpetrol:



Good evening , getting hammered with much needed rain!





Just be careful driving if you're hammered!! :) Glad you're getting rain!
Quoting 331. TropicalAnalystwx13:


You might have seen it last week, but I saw it first...



you seen nothing 1st
Quoting 302. Grothar:

Hello boys and girls!





What's going on the middle of the Atlantic as well?

Otherwise, there's a cool air, giant trough parading around the UK for the coming week - hopefully it will lift out for some warmer weather by next weekend - May is usually the nicest month for weather in Scotland. A cold (and snowy on the hills) start like this isn't unusual though.
337. 882MB
Quoting 302. Grothar:

Hello boys and girls!





Glad to see you back here Gro!! :)
The Supermassive Black Hole of the North Atlantic. (The Muse - The Supermassive Black Hole):
339. 882MB
Meanwhile on the other side of the globe, Tropical storm Noul continues to intensify. Hopefully this stays out to sea, and wont be a threat to the Philippines.





XX/AOI/XX
Quoting 302. Grothar:

Hello boys and girls!





Eh, let the palmetto state worry about that rainy mess (even though we have native palmettos too but I digress)
For you Palmetto-ans, from NWS Charleston

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
Quoting 306. Webberweather53:


You mean unrealistic possibilities... Other than staring blankly into a model w/ a notorious history for over-amplifying downwelling oceanic KWs, pure speculation, & some anecdotal evidence on your part, there's absolutely nothing that suggests we'll even come close to that insane threshold. Unless you can provide some viable scientific reasoning beyond doubt, as to why you even went ahead to mention this fictitious value of 3.0C, then you likely can't be taken seriously. If there isn't a legitimate possibility of occurrence, it's likely not even worth mentioning...


Even if you use the corrected version of the CFSv2 it still shows a 2.2C El-Nino. Again you might want to be careful when forecasting a weak/moderate El-Nino this year as we are already in moderate territory with a likely hood of this going strong in just 6 to 8 weeks.

Also it's not just the CFSv2 blow torching this El-Nino infact there are numerous models showing it now. Euro updated for May and all I got to say is good luck and those in FL get ready for severe weather starting this Fall probably the likes we've never seen before.
344. beell

05/03 18Z GFS 200-850 mb shear-valid Friday morning.
345. vis0
CREDIT:: A Space Odyssey (1968 movie), for letting us use "HAL 9000s" name in vane.
THE FOLLOWING IS NOT REAL, but maybe why we see so many Ghost storms

image host

...or it could be Model Runs can't compute some MahjeeKal-device near
by, if one notices model runs do pretty well when the area being foreseen is furthest
from NYC or the opposite side of the world from NYC...weird..

Next Halloween if no serious weather (though i have a feeling we'll be busy for a few yrs) is to be reported Dr. Masters has to be the Riddler (no wxu over dossers not selling Ritalin).

Riddle tittle suggestion:: What goes UP and will eventually come down but no one might be around by then, to get "down". (patrap knows the answer)
Quoting 298. islander101010:

showers stay well offshore e cen fl. could we be entering a drought? e cen fl.


No definitely not, the east coast of Florida could use some drying actually due to summer rainy season-like April.
347. beell
win1game...a late reply-missed it earlier.

I don't recall the length of the media blackout and flyovers. A couple days, I think. Long enough to get the conspiracy nuts cranked up!

These guys out of Ft. Worth did a darn good job of a Bolivar fly-over.
hawkeyemedia.com

Got a bit of a glitch on the page but clears up after using the "advance arrow" on each side of the frame to load the next panorama.

left-click to pan up/down/all around. scroll to zoom in/out
Going back on the whole classic wunderground thing, classic wunderground will be gone tomorrow.
Quoting 343. StormTrackerScott:



Even if you use the corrected version of the CFSv2 it still shows a 2.2C El-Nino. Again you might want to be careful when forecasting a weak/moderate El-Nino this year as we are already in moderate territory with a likely hood of this going strong in just 6 to 8 weeks.

Also it's not just the CFSv2 blow torching this El-Nino infact there are numerous models showing it now. Euro updated for May and all I got to say is good luck and those in FL get ready for severe weather starting this Fall probably the likes we've never seen before.


It looks like we are in for a wild ride.
We will know for sure by June.
Quoting 324. PedleyCA:


Heading back towards normal, whatever that is/was..... shown as 79/54
today was 78.1/60.5 the lows just aren't anymore....


65 isnt bad for Socal in may
345. vis0
"Riddle tittle suggestion:: What goes UP and will eventually come down but no one might be around by then, to get "down". (patrap knows the answer)"

Whatever the answer is, I'm pretty sure it has something to do with the deli cake in your graphic and the psychedeli map at comment 344.



Quoting Grothar:
Hello boys and girls!



Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

be a little bouncy maybe some wet

gfs hr 84 18z 10 m winds KMH WIND SCALE




'Ana' appears to make landfall.
Quoting 350. nwobilderburg:



65 isnt bad for Socal in may


Must be a Switch somewhere.....
Quoting 353. HurricaneAndre:


'Ana' appears to make landfall.

right over presslords boat
maybe
Quoting 355. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


right over presslords boat may need an extra tie or twoon the collar
maybe
We sure would. Well goodnight guys.
357. vis0

Quoting 278. barbamz:


I'd hate to see a strong El Nino too (although this doesn't mean we shouldn't have a close look at the current development in here). I still remember a German TV-footage about the impacts of an EL Nino on wildlife many, many years ago - probably connected to the last very strong one in 1997. Awful pictures!

Here is a short video about the impacts on Galapago's wildlife (with current pictures of these amazing animals alive):

Not picking on anyone, barbamz i'm sure knows this she a news ninja but for those easily influnced i state the following... "here 20 bucks believe me" and also this::

 This is where i have to vehemently (with suger on top) disagree as to hating nature thinking that certain natural cycles are bad (others good).

 Someone can be awed by a storm or find it awesome without wanting people or any other animal injured.

 Throughout this universes present life cycle there have been extremes that if you would see first hand  you might catagorize as awesome.

  BBrain had a recent story of a star exploding and many where awed by the site...could some life form on a planet near that star have just have been extinguished by that cataclysmic burst?

  i can never hate anything Nature creates i respect it and have to learn by either my, or others or sar2401s  experiences or first hand accounts from grothar but when natural things happen they are unconditional, mankind judgment (usually influenced by societies values at those times) makes it good or bad.

El Nino churns the waters so that after Nino ends, food becomes over abundant and some of the animals that suffered during El Nino now can eat those that flourished during El Nino.

This blog gets more visitors therefore more AD revenue during El Nino & TS  periods so that it can survive the lull periods...STS's posts churn up replies so in a weird way STS brings in more revenue.

 i think most members don't want to see people injured but as was stated earlier activity brings excitement.
 
 i finish my statement with humans create some of the weirdest events and many that really cause damage to themselves or the world now that's not funny...but its how humans learn...i guess:: (i've done this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c5e8FvDQcSg several times just never had a camera pointed at me...tried just now but camera connection not working so i posted this link...some might tune in WITH POPCORN  to TV shows showing people falling)
 
 Want a more scientific presentation showing how weather affects life, try a report on Nino Nina as to frequencies of severe storms on a scientific level but notice La nina/el Nino or any weather can kill...its part of life.
359. 882MB
Stormy weather in and around the Galapagos islands earlier today, largely due to the above average SST's. El Nino really brings above average rainfall across this area. Just saw the extended forecast, some more rain on the way.

360. 882MB


361. vis0

Quoting 351. Barefootontherocks:

345. vis0
"Riddle tittle suggestion:: What goes UP and will eventually come down but no one might be around by then, to get "down". (patrap knows the answer)"

Whatever the answer is, I'm pretty sure it has something to do with the deli cake in your graphic and the psychedeli map at comment 344.
oooohhhhhhhhhhhh so close

CREDIT:: an original vis0 (porcelain animal in store window, collage from images of my only in NY collection last shown in 2011.)
Just did a blog update due to potential for tropical/subtropical development offshore of the southeast US....shows maps of the Atlantic basin and mentions which features could contribute to this development
Quoting 354. PedleyCA:



Must be a Switch somewhere.....

Hah. Gonna be 59 with a chance of rain for me in San Luis Obispo.
Actually dry all this week and beyond so we will take the rain but probably affecting weekend :-(

Palmettos - state tree are native up to Cape Fear. SC symbol of liberty as their fibrous trunks are adept at absorbing the impacts of cannonball.

Quoting 341. win1gamegiantsplease:



Eh, let the palmetto state worry about that rainy mess (even though we have native palmettos too but I digress)
Quoting 357. vis0:


...%uFFFDThis is where i have to vehemently (with suger on top) disagree as to hating nature thinking that certain natural cycles are bad (others good). ...


Thanks VisO for this unusally long and comprehensive (lol) speech :-) I didn't say that I "hate nature" (although there always have been serious philosophers in the history of mankind who felt we'd have reason to say something like this) but that "I'd hate to see ..." something (in this case: strong El Nino). I like to watch severe weather events like most of us here do, standing in awe of the power of nature. But I cannot help that there's still a corner in my human heart with some pity left. All the maps of ocean temperatures we use to look at with its blue and red colors (and the satellite pics from far above) don't reflect what's going on on the ground or in the depth of the ocean as habitats. This is all what I wanted to hint at with the video. Apart from this I of course like to follow the debate on here whether El Nino will strengthen or not. --- And true, nature usually does recover from devastating natural events like El Ninos, is used to deal with it and may be somehow even dependent on it. In this case, if a strong El Nino really will materialize, it will be interesting to watch what will happen with GW as enhancement though, and ocean life is already struggling because of human impact anyway, even without an El Nino ...

Some severe weather in the offing for Europe today, connected with those unstable and warm airmasses of tropical origin:


Storm Forecast from Estofex, Valid: Mon 04 May 2015 06:00 to Tue 05 May 2015 06:00 UTC, Issued: Mon 04 May 2015 00:03, Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 2 was issued for N Portugal and NW Spain mainly for tornadoes and severe convective wind gusts.
A level 2 was issued for SW to N France mainly for severe convective wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for parts of Portugal, northern Spain, central and western France and the Benelux countries mainly for severe gust, large hail and tornado chances.

Synoptic details and discussion see link above.

And western Africa already rehearses for the season (saved loop):


Have a nice morning everybody!
Confirmed I have several beach balls blown out of the pool. I-95 is already backed up with evacuees fleeing the coastal areas. We are not evacuating. I am expecting only a .00001' storm surge here 50 miles inland. I know some will call me crazy, but we are prepared with 1 case of water and 6 cases of lime-a-ritas.

I'm not sure what this means, but the fire ants are building mounds. Yes, Mounds! I've never seen this before. And the birds have stopped chirping at night. Will keep everyone posted. Stay safe.


Quoting 364. nwobilderburg:



People who live in South Carolina need to evacuate immediately from this terrifying storm. As of now, pressure is at 1024 millibars, which is a record level for tropical systems. Storm surge is currently 0.3 inches and sinking. Its currently being reported that up to 8 sand castles have been destroyed, and that 2 sand crabs have been injured by waves. Praying for South Carolina. ;)




more drought relief for Texas and Oklahoma


above normal temps this past month in California. Not as bad as it was in March, where my location reached the mid 90s, compared to a normal high of 65
Have any of the credible sources given their predictions for this year? Models still calling for a possible sub trop storm of NE coast?
Quoting 371. Autistic2:

Have any of the credible sources given their predictions for this year? Models still calling for a possible sub trop storm of NE coast?
Yes TSR, and CSU. And yes they are still calling for it, but not for the NE, SE.
373. JRRP
first tropical wave ???
Quoting 372. HurricaneAndre:

Yes TSR, and CSU. And yes they are still calling for it, but not for the NE, SE.


Thanks, I meant north and east of the FL coast. My bad. I tend to forget every one does not live here in NE FL even though it feels like it to me!
sleeper yr for tornado hunters
Quoting JRRP:
first tropical wave ???


I would be tempted to agree...


aint much better for forest fire watchers


wow!!
Before a big storm hits, seabirds usually fly inland, and in some instances, fish can be seen swimming into safer harbors! If you see that happening ... head to the hills!
Quoting 364. nwobilderburg:



People who live in South Carolina need to evacuate immediately from this terrifying storm. As of now, pressure is at 1024 millibars, which is a record level for tropical systems. Storm surge is currently 0.3 inches and sinking. Its currently being reported that up to 8 sand castles have been destroyed, and that 2 sand crabs have been injured by waves. Praying for South Carolina. ;)


Quoting 379. Stormwatch247:

Before a big storm hits, seabirds usually fly inland, and in some instances, fish can be seen swimming into safer harbors! If you see that happening ... head to the hills!


You forgot. The time is now to fill you lawn furniture with beer!

Some observations...

At mid levels (500MB) the weak upper level low is taking taking shape as expected over the SE GOM which I've highlighted below and as shown in the 11Z RUC data:




Surface wise... this upper level low should induce a low development over the Bahamas region. Based on surface analysis I'm putting it over Turks & Caicos region as shown below:



Of course, this is could change at anytime as it is a developing system and as such it could or might not materialize.
This is probably Ana in the making. Obviously getting sheared badly right now, but that shear will relax significantly over the next 36-48 hours, and with warm enough SSTs this should become a subtropical or tropical cyclone.

Quoting 334. BaltimoreBrian:

The last list


So sad - the end of an era. Brian, your regular attempts to keep us current with science news will definitely be missed!
Quoting 179. vis0:

Whats Bob Henson, Grothar, Labonbon, Patrap, barbamz, moderators, Taz ...chopped liver?


(snip)

Thanks for the honorable mention, vis...and I'm in such august company too :)
Very rare and uncharted territory to have a 1.1C reading by the CPC at ENSO 3.4 in May.
Interesting on the Euro as the actual verification is stronger than what the Euro was forecasting in April. Could it be we get a El-Nino stronger than 1997.

hopefully the above normal forecasted rains in the SW keep the numbers of forest fires at bay. as for central floridas thunderstorm season?? these cool north winds might help postpone its onset. late may at the earliest Im guessing
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
Interesting on the Euro as the actual verification is stronger than what the Euro was forecasting in April. Could it be we get a El-Nino stronger than 1997.



That will be the day when I see a 4.5C come to fruition.
CFSv2 has ENSO 3.4 near 2.5C by September. Kiss of death for the Atlantic while the E-Pac will likely be on fire with system after system forming.

Good Morning all..

Quoting 390. WxLogic:



That will be the day when I see a 4.5C come to fruition.


Ensemble member going crazy but the mean seems to be trending toward 3C something if were to occur would surpass the 1997 El-Nino by a wide margin. Again key word is IF as there are other dynamical models from the NMME site like NASA have El-Nino near 2.5C so there is some support for a El-Nino similar to the one back in 1997.

In other words what FL doesn't get during Hurricane Season we will make up for it with Tornadoes starting this Fall thru next Spring. The I-4 corridor could literally be Tornado Alley later this year into early next year.
06z NAM at 84 hours..

Later..
Quoting 394. ncstorm:

06z NAM at 84 hours..

Later..



stop it
Quoting 395. presslord:



stop it
You mean continue? ;) I call this one DOMM!!! Wonder what the guys in charge of the PLANFALF model say. :P

Quoting 396. GTstormChaserCaleb:

You mean continue? ;) I call this one DOMM!!! Wonder what the guys in charge of the PLANFALF model say. :P






thats the bs model
Quoting 387. StormTrackerScott:

Very rare and uncharted territory to have a 1.1C reading by the CPC at ENSO 3.4 in May.


In case you haven't been paying any attention whatsoever, the actual latest weekly anomaly is still only +1.0C.
Link

Again, for the nth time, the CPC's ONI index uses a tri-monthly mean to calculate NINO region SST anomalies, because this falls outside the intraseasonal band, (30-90) which represents higher frequency quasi-oscillations & phenomena that don't necessarily represent ENSO. A week or two of NINO 3.4 anomalies > 1.0C isn't going to radically change the tri-monthly mean value, persistence is necessary.... and if you decided to take a few minutes out of your time look at the data instead of making things up, it wouldn't take long to see that having >1.0C anomalies in the NINO 3.4 region isn't "uncharted" territory for this time of the year. In fact, in terms of second year El Ninos, 1988 & 1941 had even higher anomalies...





Quoting 393. StormTrackerScott:



Ensemble member going crazy but the mean seems to be trending toward 3C something if were to occur would surpass the 1997 El-Nino by a wide margin. Again key word is IF as there are other dynamical models from the NMME site like NASA have El-Nino near 2.5C so there is some support for a El-Nino similar to the one back in 1997.

In other words what FL doesn't get during Hurricane Season we will make up for it with Tornadoes starting this Fall thru next Spring. The I-4 corridor could literally be Tornado Alley later this year into early next year.


The only "support" for an El Nino of 1997's caliber is coming from modeled fantasies. Anyone who suggests this year is going to challenge the 1997-98 Super NINo without providing any evidence to back it up probably can't be taken seriously. In reality, if you actually decided to look at the incident conditions, this year isn't even close...
this week # are in and check out nino 1 and 2 up to 1.9

Niño 4 1.4ºC
Niño 3.4 1.0ºC
Niño 3 1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 1.9ºC
I think at the next Special Tropical Weather Outlook they they will go up either 0/40 or 10/40. What do you guys think.
We have a classic setup for Tropical development this week.The ridge will build over my region.What does that mean? It means the sub-tropical jet will be further north so no disruptive wind shear and waters are already above average in the region where the "low" will form.I saw this same pattern with Alberto and Beryl play out.We were sweltering up here but it provided a good environment for those two storm same with Arthur from last year too.
Link
More model runs are coming into my blog if interested.
Quoting 367. HaoleboySurfEC:

Confirmed I have several beach balls blown out of the pool. I-95 is already backed up with evacuees fleeing the coastal areas. We are not evacuating. I am expecting only a .00001' storm surge here 50 miles inland. I know some will call me crazy, but we are prepared with 1 case of water and 6 cases of lime-a-ritas.

I'm not sure what this means, but the fire ants are building mounds. Yes, Mounds! I've never seen this before. And the birds have stopped chirping at night. Will keep everyone posted. Stay safe.





With current climate trends it's only a matter of time before fire ants start building mounds in the DC metro area. Perhaps the first one will be under the DCA sensor, one of the warmest spots in the area.
from tropicweathers blog.........

CPC update of 5/4/15 has El Nino at +1.0C and the ONI is at +0.6C.

from the weekly CPC report

Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4
1.4ºC
Niño 3.4
1.0ºC
Niño 3
1.0ºC
Niño 1+2
1.9ºC


it's one thing to portray coming events however you wish......but to purposely misreport actual data is reprehensible......


Morning all. Hope everyone had a good off season. Ana on the way? We shall see. If it is, I strongly suspect it would be a Wilmington to OBX event. The rest of the Carolina's would just see a bit of choppy water and some beach erosion...imho.
Quoting 404. ricderr:

from tropicweathers blog.........

CPC update of 5/4/15 has El Nino at +1.0C and the ONI is at +0.6C.

from the weekly CPC report

Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4
1.4ºC
Niño 3.4
1.0ºC
Niño 3
1.0ºC
Niño 1+2
1.9ºC


it's one thing to portray coming events however you wish......but to purposely misreport actual data is reprehensible......







i posted it 1st see post 399
i posted it 1st see post 399

yes you did....great job taz

Morning all. Hope everyone had a good off season. Ana on the way? We shall see. If it is, I strongly suspect it would be a Wilmington to OBX event. The rest of the Carolina's would just see a bit of choppy water and some beach erosion...imho.

mornin junkman.........i see the atlantic has forced you from hiding
Quoting 404. ricderr:

from tropicweathers blog.........

CPC update of 5/4/15 has El Nino at +1.0C and the ONI is at +0.6C.

from the weekly CPC report

Niño Region SST Departures (oC) Recent Evolution
The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4
1.4ºC
Niño 3.4
1.0ºC
Niño 3
1.0ºC
Niño 1+2
1.9ºC


it's one thing to portray coming events however you wish......but to purposely misreport actual data is reprehensible......





CPC had 1.07C on their graph so it made sense they would use 1.1C but instead went with 1.0C.

Good to see ya Ric. Seems the Atl has a way of doing that...Bout a month or two early this year it seems.
Quoting 409. StormTrackerScott:



CPC had 1.07C on their graph so it made sense they would use 1.1C but instead went with 1.0C.




That graphic is from the Aussies not from CPC.
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form near the
northwestern Bahamas around midweek. This system could gradually
acquire some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it
moves generally northward at a slow forward speed. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
copyright commonwealth of australia 2015, bureau of meteorology
414. JRRP
Good to see ya Ric. Seems the Atl has a way of doing that...Bout a month or two early this year it seems

it's what we get for post after post showing how unfavorable conditions are...or even worse......it's the grand joke.....everyone's anticipation jumps....only to see no activity until august
Quoting 414. JRRP:




Yup, models are really keying in on that infact you can take that out thru May into June and there are continued strong burst of westerly wind anomalies. Big reason why models are trending much stronger this month. That is what gets me on why anyone on here would say that 2015 is identical to 2014 as this is clearly not the case @webberweather!
Scott if we see 4.5+ degrees, we might just turn into giant reptiles. Because I think the torrid age was 70 Million years ago and Antarctica was a tropical region, there was no ice on the Earth and the Dinosaurs ruled the Earth. This is based on my class Natural hazards and Physical Geography class last semester. Google it Torrid age
Here's the IOD. Really spiking right now!

re moved i was thinking it was still sunday out look


levi...lighting up the twittersphere


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 14h14 hours ago
Last 8 CFSv2 forecasts also have below-normal wind shear along 20N in Atlantic for September despite El Nino:
Quoting 417. WeatherConvoy:

Scott if we see 4.5+ degrees, we might just turn into giant reptiles. Because I think the torrid age was 70 Million years ago and Antarctica was a tropical region, there was no ice on the Earth and the Dinosaurs ruled the Earth. This is based on my class Natural hazards and Physical Geography class last semester. Google it Torrid age


LOL. Well never see anything like that but models seem to trending toward a 2.5C to 3.0C ENSO. Very important things happening across the Globe that could be setting us up for a record breaking El-Nino
Quoting 419. Tazmanian:




YAWN thats old news now and we seen like a half a dozn times now if some one needs too check they can go the the nhc web site and check it out some on here are this lazy old farts


Maybe he couldn't see the post I mean like 20 of them.
Taz, see the date of the STWO.It is from today.
May the Fourth be with You
MT4BWU
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z MAY 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST OF
POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM NORTH OF NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 28.0N 78.0W FOR 05/1500Z.
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS
ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
previous posts
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031431
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form north of
the Bahamas later this week. This system could gradually acquire
some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves
slowly northward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued on this system by 11 AM EDT Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Brennan


tropics post


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form near the
northwestern Bahamas around midweek. This system could gradually
acquire some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it
moves generally northward at a slow forward speed. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain
Quoting 410. StormJunkie:

Good to see ya Ric. Seems the Atl has a way of doing that...Bout a month or two early this year it seems.


and a nice lil' carolina's Presslord prod.. well played... good to see you again Junkie!
Quoting 416. StormTrackerScott:



Yup, models are really keying in on that infact you can take that out thru May into June and there are continued strong burst of westerly wind anomalies. Big reason why models are trending much stronger this month. That is what gets me on why anyone on here would say that 2015 is identical to 2014 as this is clearly not the case @webberweather!


Unless you can find the comment where I said this El Nino is exactly like last year that would be great. The reference to last year I made several weeks ago was referring to the wave #2 upper level velocity potential field w/ upper lvl convergence along/just east of the dateline. The latest CHI & U200 is showing that the 2 anomalous centers of upward motion are beginning to merge, however anomalous upper level divergence continues to engulf Australia & the overall upward center in the Pacific appears stretched...



Quoting 421. StormTrackerScott:



LOL. Well never see anything like that but models seem to trending toward a 2.5C to 3.0C ENSO. Very important things happening across the Globe that could be setting us up for a record breaking El-Nino


Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z MAY 2015
TCPOD NUMBER.....15-001

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST OF
POTENTIAL SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM NORTH OF NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 28.0N 78.0W FOR 05/1500Z.
3. REMARKS: THIS IS A SPECIAL TCPOD. DAILY TCPODS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED WHILE AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE MISSIONS
ARE BEING CONSIDERED OR TASKED FOR THIS SYSTEM.


I sure missed these... :)
Quoting 420. ricderr:

levi...lighting up the twittersphere


Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 14h14 hours ago
Last 8 CFSv2 forecasts also have below-normal wind shear along 20N in Atlantic for September despite El Nino:

This will be more of a homegrown year and the best conditions seem to be setting up in the Bahamas region and GOM.
Quoting 432. StormTrackerScott:



Webberweather,you have said repeatedly that this year looks identical to last year with regards to ENSO. If you deny that then you are lying. You've said this post after post already and is the reason why we keep going back in forth as you are wrong as this year is not the same as last year. Record PDO, continued WWB infact getting strong now and is expected to stay that way into July, ESPI favorable for strengthening, and the only issue I see is the SOI.


Evidence please...

What does the "record" PDO have to do w/ the intensity of individual ENSO events? Again, provide some actual evidence to back this up...
Quoting ricderr:

Yeah, but our bonus this early before the 'season' is waiting for Gro to declare the
pre-blobbagy stuff in WAFR!
12Z NAM is showing a impressive system and is close to Cape Canaveral. Could be squally across Eastern FL the next few days.
This will be more of a homegrown year and the best conditions seem to be setting up in the Bahamas region and GOM.


very well could be........was looking at that a few weeks ago....texas is the number one hit state with homegrown systems...followed by the east coast north of georgia

Quoting ricderr:

Yeah, but our bonus this early before the 'season' is waiting for Gro to declare the
pre-blobbagy stuff in WAFR!


very true
Morning All,

Wet days ahead, potentially Ana in the making. Good day for weather geeks.
here's what crownweather has to say about the season......


Link
Quoting 439. ProgressivePulse:

Morning All,

Wet days ahead, potentially Ana in the making. Good day for weather geeks.


No ANA... Sorry
We will need Capt. Trough

Quoting 433. washingtonian115:

This will be more of a homegrown year and the best conditions seem to be setting up in the Bahamas region and GOM.
Quoting 423. Tropicsweatherpr:

Taz, see the date of the STWO.It is from today.



i no i made the miss take so my last commit i re moved
Quoting 439. ProgressivePulse:

Morning All,

Wet days ahead, potentially Ana in the making. Good day for weather geeks.


12Z Nam running is close to FL on this run as it seems the trend the last 12 hours is for a track a little further west. Could be a weak to moderate Sub Tropical to Tropical System late this week near N FL.
Quoting 441. bryanfromkyleTX:



No ANA... Sorry


I must know where you bought your crystal ball that has all the answers, I want one...
12Z NAM now showing a Strong Tropical Storm near Georgia/South Carolina at 72hrs
Quoting 434. Webberweather53:



Evidence please...

What does the "record" PDO have to do w/ the intensity of individual ENSO events? Again, provide some actual evidence to back this up...


We won't have to wait long for primary physical evidence.
Then we will see who is correct.
I'm leaning more toward a major event, but I'm not as weather literate as most here.
Quoting 444. StormTrackerScott:



12Z Nam running is close to FL on this run as it seems the trend the last 12 hours is for a track a little further west. Could be a weak to moderate Sub Tropical to Tropical System late this week near N FL.


Maybe this will be the year of west trends. It's been far to long since our last formidable system. However I've thought that the past few years only to see east trends and recurves continue.
449. MahFL
Quoting 441. bryanfromkyleTX:



No ANA... Sorry


Ana isn't due to form until midweek, it's Monday morning right now.
wind shear says other wise

Seems too quick of a timeline, but won't be the first time we've all been surprised.

Quoting 446. StormTrackerScott:

12Z NAM now showing a Strong Tropical Storm near Georgia/South Carolina at 72hrs
Good Morning. Will only add to the discussion on possible non-tropical Ana that it will initiate as an mid-to-upper air feature (not from the bottom up per se as with a tropical system), so we need to keep an eye on the mid and upper level conditions over the area in the coming days. Here is the relative current look per CIMSS and GFS in terms of mid and upper levels and the position of the subtropical jet.


mid

upper
jet
12z NAM at 84 hours..last frame..

This is a very good informative report.

The GOM and SW Atlantic will probably be more active during the hurricane season 2015, no matter how many total storms form in the ATL basin.

Quoting 440. ricderr:

here's what crownweather has to say about the season......


Link
time to look at the fsu model page...but first...a word from my lawyer



This page presents operational model fields that are being used in a study examining their
forecast ability for tropical cyclogenesis in the eastern Pacific and northern Atlantic basins.

Please note that these products are experimental and not official forecasts. For official forecasts in the U.S.,
please refer to the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
Anticipating the arrival of nostormsinfl. Hmm...wunder when we will get invest 90L? I suspect when that happens comments like this will be on the next page once the refresh button is hit. ;)

the cmc starts the ball rolling in just under 2 days and now has started things further south than yesterday


Correction.........That is actually Sly Stone....................One of the greatest proponents of funk (when he was in his heyday).
ecmwf starts in three days....also further south than yesterday...but just like yesterday...doesn't think much of anything will happen

gfs is looking at 2 days...and is also in agreement this will form south of yesterdays forecast...

Hi nrt,you said a few weeks ago that the ATCF file for invests is the same but that file doesn't have tests that they do before a real invest is up.
navgem....also in about 2 days...and forms this just east of miami.....


Blobogenesis possible.

Correction.........That is actually Sly Stone....................One of the greatest proponents of funk (when he was in his heyday).



yes it is....and yes he was.........."everyday people" comes to mind
NAM surface gusts forecast:



300 feet Above Ground Level:

Quoting 468. GTstormChaserCaleb:

NAM surface gusts forecast:



300 feet Above Ground Level:





Nice graphics, Caleb.
Quoting 442. HaoleboySurfEC:

We will need Capt. Trough


With the ridge keeping Captain Trough Save the U.S at bay it could be a hit or a close call.

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue · 11m 11 minutes ago

NAM 12-km -- not known for its tropical storm predictive capabilities -- still most aggressive w/coastal storm
Thurs:

Quoting 469. Grothar:




Nice graphics, Caleb.
Thank You Grothar :)
Quoting 347. beell:

win1game...a late reply-missed it earlier.

I don't recall the length of the media blackout and flyovers. A couple days, I think. Long enough to get the conspiracy nuts cranked up!

These guys out of Ft. Worth did a darn good job of a Bolivar fly-over.
hawkeyemedia.com

Got a bit of a glitch on the page but clears up after using the "advance arrow" on each side of the frame to load the next panorama.

left-click to pan up/down/all around. scroll to zoom in/out


Cool I'll give it a look when I'm not on my phone, requires adobe flash to view.

Quoting 365. HaoleboySurfEC:

Actually dry all this week and beyond so we will take the rain but probably affecting weekend :-(

Palmettos - state tree are native up to Cape Fear. SC symbol of liberty as their fibrous trunks are adept at absorbing the impacts of cannonball.




I don't think we have enough of them to build forts with, outside of Bald Head Island (which has tons of them in the forests) and south of Fort Fisher they're patchy along coastal Brunswick county headed to the state line. I wish we had more, they're cool.

Dwarf palmettos, on the other hand, are everywhere. There's an uninhabited island in the middle of the Currituck Sound (about an hour or two south of VA Beach) that is covered in them. Very common in cypress swamps too. Maybe they can be our state mini-tree.
Non-tropical blobagenesis under daunting shear conditions per CIMMS even though dropping a little in the last 24 hours:


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
72 hours.....hmmmmmmmmmmm

In terms of this cyclogenesis off the coast of East and South east Florida. We have to hope the Ridge of High pressure builds strong to keep in close to the coast. Otherwise the cyclone or potential cyclone will find a weakness in the Ridge and runoff into the Atlantic like a beaten Mule
I'm not sure but I think they were used along with earthworks during the battle of Fort Fisher. I love that stretch of coast, all the way from Wrightsville to the state line. Some mysterious surf spots between Cape Fear and SC/NC line.

Ana should provide some decent waves.

Quoting 473. win1gamegiantsplease:



Cool I'll give it a look when I'm not on my phone, requires adobe flash to view.



I don't think we have enough of them to build forts with, outside of Bald Head Island (which has tons of them in the forests) and south of Fort Fisher they're patchy along coastal Brunswick county headed to the state line. I wish we had more, they're cool.

Dwarf palmettos, on the other hand, are everywhere. There's an uninhabited island in the middle of the Currituck Sound (about an hour or two south of VA Beach) that is covered in them. Very common in cypress swamps too. Maybe they can be our state mini-tree.
Quoting 348. HurricaneAndre:

Going back on the whole classic wunderground thing, classic wunderground will be gone tomorrow.


It's already gone. :'(

%u2022 . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . ,.-%u2018%u201D. . . . . . . . . .``~.,
. . . . . . . .. . . . . .,.-%u201D. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .%u201C-.,
. . . . .. . . . . . ..,/. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . %u201D:,
. . . . . . . .. .,?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\,
. . . . . . . . . /. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,}
. . . . . . . . ./. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,:`^`.}
. . . . . . . ./. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,:%u201D. . . ./
. . . . . . .?. . . __. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . :`. . . ./
. . . . . . . /__.(. . .%u201C~-,_. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,:`. . . .. ./
. . . . . . /(_. . %u201D~,_. . . ..%u201C~,_. . . . . . . . . .,:`. . . . _/
. . . .. .{.._$;_. . .%u201D=,_. . . .%u201C-,_. . . ,.-~-,}, .~%u201D; /. .. .}
. . .. . .((. . .*~_. . . .%u201D=-._. . .%u201C;,,./`. . /%u201D . . . ./. .. ../
. . . .. . .\`~,. . ..%u201C~.,. . . . . . . . . ..`. . .}. . . . . . ../
. . . . . .(. ..`=-,,. . . .`. . . . . . . . . . . ..(. . . ;_,,-%u201D
. . . . . ../.`~,. . ..`-.. . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..\. . /\
. . . . . . \`~.*-,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ..|,./.....\,__
,,_. . . . . }.>-._\. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .|. . . . . . ..`=~-,
. .. `=~-,_\_. . . `\,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\
. . . . . . . . . .`=~-,,.\,. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .\
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . `:,, . . . . . . . . . . . . . `\. . . . . . ..__
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .`=-,. . . . . . . . . .,%`>--
Remember Johnny Parker everyone. If you do Give him a shout out he has his own weather site up and set to graduate. Johnny is a fellow classmate of mine at Mississippi State University in Geoscience and Meteorology and he has been through a lot of shat with his health. Thumbs up to you Johnny