WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

What Can Lightning Tell Us about Storm Severity

?

By: Bob Henson 5:42 PM GMT on May 21, 2015

As soon as an incipient thunderstorm spits out its first cloud-to-ground lightning bolt, it’s a potentially deadly threat. A complex of severe storms can generate many thousands of lightning flashes per hour. Along with being a hazard in its own right, lightning can serve as an useful clue to how quickly a thunderstorm is strengthening. New tools along these lines have been developed to help forecasters, and they’re being tested this spring at NOAA's Hazardous Weather Testbed at the National Weather Center in Norman, OK, where I visited earlier this month.




Figure 1. Lightning and the setting sun paint a colorful scene over Washington, D.C., on April 20, 2015. Image credit: wunderphotographer wolfpackwx.

Those of you in warm climates may have seen a weak shower suddenly deposit a burst of rain just minutes after you heard the first clap of thunder. For decades, this anecdotal evidence couldn’t be reliably examined. The advent of lightning detection systems in the 1980s meant that lightning flashes could be quantified for the first time. Most of the country is now covered by a network of sensors that detect the location and timing of cloud-to-ground lightning (CGs) by measuring the electromagnetic signals released at ground level. There are also regional lightning mapping arrays (LMAs) that detect intracloud lightning (ICs) by sensing the very high frequency radiation released at each “elbow” of a zigzagging flash. Together, these systems allow what's called total lightning (CGs + ICs) to be quantified. Some of the earliest work using these data found intriguing connections to severe weather. A 1989 study led by Don MacGorman (National Severe Storms Laboratory) found that the total lightning flash rate in one Oklahoma thunderstorm peaked about 5 minutes before a tornado developed. In another early study, Steven Goodman (NOAA/NESDIS) and colleagues discovered a spike in the total flash rate of an Alabama thunderstorm that preceded small hail and a microburst by several minutes. Goodman and Patrick Gatlin (University of Alabama in Huntsville) also developed the first algorithm designed to automatically identify lightning jumps.

More recently, Christopher Schultz (now at NASA) led a series of studies looking more broadly at whether lightning-jump algorithms could serve as an early-warning tool to help forecasters identify which storms might soon become severe. The results were highly encouraging, especially when the algorithm flagged jumps in total lightning that were two standard deviations greater than the rate observed a few minutes earlier. In a 2011 study of more than 700 thunderstorms (mostly in northern Alabama), this “two-sigma” index detected 79% of all severe thunderstorms, with a relatively low false-alarm rate of 36%. Schultz’s recent dissertation work demonstrated that lightning jumps, as opposed to more general increases in flash rate, were closely related to increases in the storm’s peak updraft speed, and in the storm volume that features updrafts classified as intense (e.g., at least 10 meters per second or 22 mph). These increases in updraft size and speed preceded lightning jumps by roughly 4 to 12 minutes.

Lightning jumps can’t tell us exactly what kind of severe weather a storm will produce, and not every lightning jump will lead to a severe outcome. Moreover, some thunderstorms reach severe levels without producing huge amounts of lightning. However, in general, lightning jumps can provide an almost-instantaneous measure of how quickly a thunderstorm updraft is strengthening. As the vertical motion in a storm intensifies, ice crystals, supercooled water droplets, and graupel (snow pellets)--together referred to as mixed-phase precipitation--grow more rapidly and bump into each other more readily, transferring charge among each other. Different speeds of descent allow for the charged particles to assemble in zones of positive and negative charge, which increases the storm’s ability to generate lightning. In a newly forming thunderstorm, the strengthening updraft typically produce the charge separation needed for a lightning jump a few minutes before it has time to generate one or more of the markers that the National Weather Service uses to classify a thunderstorm as severe: hail larger than 1” in diameter, winds reaching 58 mph, and/or a tornado. (Interestingly, lightning itself is not one of the elements that officially define a storm as severe, in part because it’s traditionally been so hard to quantify.) “The lightning jump provides forecasters vital information on the growth of the mixed-phase updraft size and speed within the thunderstorm, which is one crucial component that forecasters seek during the warning decision-making process,” says Schultz.


Figure 2. The solid dark-orange blob indicates a four- to five-sigma jump in lightning activity at 2009 GMT on Monday, May 18, in Tillman County, OK. The storm grew quickly, and several tornadoes were reported in Wichita County, TX, and Tillman County, OK, between 2030 and 2100 GMT. Image credit: GOES-R Proving Ground Blog.


Satellite-based measurements of total lightning are a promising adjunct to ground-based networks, which leads us to this year’s spring experiment in Oklahoma. The project is testing a variety of storm-intensity clues that will soon be provided by the GOES-R series of satellites, which are scheduled for launch beginning in the spring of 2016. GOES-R is set to include a Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) that will use optical sensing to quantify total lightning at a spatial resolution of around 10 km, with a mere 20 seconds needed for data processing. In place of these yet-to-be-launched instruments, ground-based mapping array data from Earth Networks are being used in this spring’s experiment as proxies to replicate what GOES-R will be able to provide. Using this "pseudo-GLM," or PGLM, researchers are testing a lightning jump algorithm that notifies forecasters when a storm is showing jumps at various sigma levels, based on lightning rates across 1- and 6-minute intervals. The forecaster can then keep a closer eye on a particular storm if the lightning jump is dramatic enough, and if it's quickly backed up by other evidence, such as satellite imagery or radar data. “It’ll help forecasters in terms of situational awareness--what storms they should focus on,” says Geoffrey Stano (NASA/ENSCO), who's been helping to coordinate the spring experiment.

Even a few minutes of extra notice may be important with a fast-growing storm, especially if it has the potential to cause serious trouble. In a case study of the storm that produced a deadly tornado in Newcastle and Moore, OK, on May 20, 2013, Stano and colleagues found that one distinct lightning jump preceded the formation of severe hail by 19 minutes. A second jump occurred 26 minutes before the tornado formed, indicating that the storm’s updraft speed and size had increased again and that the potential for severe weather was still present. Lightning jumps may also be helpful in identifying the few storms that have severe potential on a day that's otherwise marginal.

Many examples of how forecasters are using the lightning-jump algorithm, and other tools being tested this spring, can be found at the GOES-R Proving Ground Blog at the Hazardous Weather Testbed.

This week's WunderPoster: Shazam!
Lightning strikes again in today's blog post, this time as the star of the latest in our WunderPoster series. Created by WU’s Skyler Rexrode, this depiction of lightning's power and majesty was inspired by a lighting flash in Wyoming photographed by Bryan Downie (@b_down13). Today's installment concludes our initial set of WunderPosters, but all 16 of the posters produced to date will continue to be available for downloading in formats suitable for posters or postcards. Our thanks go to the hundreds of community members who submitted images for the community-inspired WunderPosters that debuted this month. Hats off to the entire WU design team as well!

We'll be back on Friday with coverage of the weather we can expect this holiday weekend and what the upcoming summer may bring us.

Bob Henson


Figure 3. A severe thunderstorm over California’s Antelope Valley is laced with intracloud lightning. Image credit: wunderphotographer brandyn.

Severe Weather Lightning

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

THANKYOU DOC
12Z GFS has a Casper storm once again............................................. .........
too kewl...........impressive the mind that looks for questions...and then finds the answer



of course...myself...i misread "lightning" for "lying" and thought you might be blogging about climate deniers......nevermind!!!!
Quoting 2. LargoFl:

12Z GFS has a Casper storm once again............................................. .........


you don't know if that is an actual ghost storm
2.5" rain in 30min here on the NE side of Houston at the house. I'm working at the airport and when the storm went over us it rained so hard is was a "white out". Haven't seen that in a long time.
W Carib/E GOM/SEUS storm evolution

starting around 240/276hrs to end of run 384hrs








I'll be darned. Without knowing any better, I've been using lightning stroke rates for years to give me an idea of how bad a thunderstorm might be. Since the advent of lightning detectors on the net, this has been an easy parameter to look at, and my own non-scientific observations certainly agree with the studies. I'm in Alabama, so maybe there's soemthing odd about our thunderstorms, but I suspect that a jump in stroke rates is probably a good indicator of severity anywhere. On the other side of the coin, a rapid decrease in stroke rates has almost always been a sign of storms weakening below severe limits.
Quoting 4. wunderkidcayman:


you don't know if that is an actual ghost storm
No, but the accuracy rate of the GFS at 16 days out certainly makes it a much higher probability of being a ghost than being real. Didn't we go through this last year? How many of the 384 hour GFS lows ever really came to pass?
It'll be interesting to see how lightning frequency will change in the future, with global warming. It seems intuitive that increased energy would mean increased lightening, but I'm sure it's not that simple.
NHC bumped up the % on EPAC TWO of the two AOIs in the far W EPAC

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A tropical wave located about 1200 miles south-southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California is producing a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system has changed little
in organization since yesterday, and environmental conditions are
currently not conducive for development. However, they are expected
to become conducive for some slow development over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

2. An area of low pressure has developed about 2000 miles southwest of
the southern tip of Baja California. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for gradual development of the system
during the next several days while the low moves slowly
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Quoting 1. Autistic2:
THANKYOU DOC
Bob Henson saved the blog this time. :-)
Want to apologize to Yoboi. I got my first ban. My comment was out of of line. Great work Mods..
Quoting 8. sar2401:

No, but the accuracy rate of the GFS at 16 days out certainly makes it a much higher probability of being a ghost than being real. Didn't we go through this last year? How many of the 384 hour GFS lows ever really came to pass?


lol that's just the thing it ain't 16 days out

it 10-12 days out NOT 16 day

I totally agree 384hrs out possibly ghost storm or actual storm

fact is we don't know for sure
Quoting 6. wunderkidcayman:

W Carib/E GOM/SEUS storm evolution

starting around 240/276hrs to end of run 384hrs









ty for posting all that and yes, this time of year we surely keep a close eye on that area down there..we'll see in a week if GFS keeps saying the same storm..yesterday it had the storm hitting palm coast..today its in the gul hitting tampa bay then crossing over to the atlantic.
No, but the accuracy rate of the GFS at 16 days out certainly makes it a much higher probability of being a ghost than being real. Didn't we go through this last year? How many of the 384 hour GFS lows ever really came to pass?


as i recall.......they all panned out :-)
Quoting 7. sar2401:

I'll be darned. Without knowing any better, I've been using lightning stroke rates for years to give me an idea of how bad a thunderstorm might be. Since the advent of lightning detectors on the net, this has been an easy parameter to look at, and my own non-scientific observations certainly agree with the studies. I'm in Alabama, so maybe there's soemthing odd about our thunderstorms, but I suspect that a jump in stroke rates is probably a good indicator of severity anywhere. On the other side of the coin, a rapid decrease in stroke rates has almost always been a sign of storms weakening below severe limits.


It's interesting because I've noticed that the gustier the winds ahead of the storm are the more lightning and generally the heavier the thunderstorm is, which is noted in how updrafts and lightning are related to storm severity in the study.

Quoting 4. wunderkidcayman:



you don't know if that is an actual ghost storm


I'd put a bit more faith in the ENSO strength prediction models over several months than models predicting tropical cyclogenesis over a couple weeks, even if Ana was predicted correctly and the ENSO models performed with mixed results last year.
Quoting Tlawson

Quoting 741. tlawson48:



In my engineering world, if one person does a slipshod job on part of the massive job we're working on, EVERYTHING screeches to a halt while we double check the whole project to make sure the crummy work doesn't snowball through the whole thing.



In contrast to "management" which tries to cover the whole mess up to cut costs.

My favorite quote from this class of people is from Morton Thiokol January 25 1986 in response to engineers who were concerned
about the Challenger O rings failing in cold conditions expected January 26, 1986

"It's time to take off our engineering hats and put on our management hats"

I personally always look to the CMC for guidance on long-range storms the GFS shows. I mean, if the CMC doesn't show it, then you know the storm is bogus. ;)
Quoting 4. wunderkidcayman:



you don't know if that is an actual ghost storm


sure it is,, Tampa is immune remember?

Thank you Bob, VERY interesting subject..
good article. I will add to this....I agree that lightning is a good indicator about storm strength but....in 2002 I witnessed a developing tornado almost directly overhead, no lightning, eventually making its way to the ground and went on to damage a high school and homes. this tornado was the byproduct of a weak tropical-sub tropical system. no lightning at all.
Quoting 13. wunderkidcayman:


lol that's just the thing it ain't 16 days out

it 10-12 days out NOT 16 day

I totally agree 384hrs out possibly ghost storm or actual storm

fact is we don't know for sure
No, it first shows up as a low 16 days out. Everything past that time is just the GFS moving that same supposed low. Just because it still shows up in (pick your time period) has zero relationship to whether that 384 hour low was ever real. Seriously, we did go through this all last May and June, and conditions in the Caribbean and GOM are at least as bad this year, if not worse. I know you like following these long range models (and 10-12 days is still pretty long range) and that's OK. It's just that the track record of the GFS with tropical lows coming out of the Gulf of Honduras area has been pretty bad. More important, what do the other major models show for the same time period? Forecasting off one model almost always comes to grief.
Quoting 20. indianrivguy:



sure it is,, Tampa is immune remember?

Thank you Bob, VERY interesting subject..



No it isn't and the more people believe that the more likely they could die


Anyway Jims predictions for this season

Tampa is one of them

Quoting 21. nfloridandr:
good article. I will add to this....I agree that lightning is a good indicator about storm strength but....in 2002 I witnessed a developing tornado almost directly overhead, no lightning, eventually making its way to the ground and went on to damage a high school and homes. this tornado was the byproduct of a weak tropical-sub tropical system. no lightning at all.
The more tropical the storm, the less lightning. This is one of the things that makes tropical cyclone generated storms so dangerous, since they can spin up tornadoes with almost no warning.
Look this storm that GFS is predicting may or may not happen we just have to wait and see
Quoting 9. SeriouslySushi:

It'll be interesting to see how lightning frequency will change in the future, with global warming. It seems intuitive that increased energy would mean increased lightening, but I'm sure it's not that simple.


It probably is that simple. Moreover, increased lightning is a positive feedback effect, serving to increase global warming, although you'll struggle to find anything about that in the literature. I seem to be the only one who bangs on about it.

More lightning = more wildfires, and more of the greenhouse gases CO2, methane, and aNOx as a result. Moreover, as lightning passes through the air, it creates nitrous oxide and ozone, both of which are powerful greenhouse gases.

It's probably a minor positive feedback, but how many other such minor feedback effects might there be that haven't even been thought about?
you guys in florida..ever see one of these?..just found one in my yard................
None of the blogs showing up on my WU face page today. What gives?
Quoting 24. sar2401:

The more tropical the storm, the less lightning. This is one of the things that makes tropical cyclone generated storms so dangerous, since they can spin up tornadoes with almost no warning.


What makes intense, rapidly intensifying storms, or both capable of producing lightning when they're warm-core systems exactly? Katrina produced lightning at her first landfall in Florida, and Andrew produced lots of it (Link, there might be an advert before the film starts). Hurricane Emily I believe also produced lots of lightning detected over the water.

I can understand how the outer bands produce lightning, that was actually a spectacular thing to watch around midnight-1 am last year during Arthur.
Quoting 7. sar2401:

... I'm in Alabama, so maybe there's soemthing odd about our thunderstorms, but I suspect that a jump in stroke rates is probably a good indicator of severity anywhere. ...

Lol, Sar. As far as I've seen our European storm behave in a similar way :-)
And thanks for the interesting in depth report, Bob. It will be great to have new tools to closely watch the storms developing.

Looking around for some nice lightning videos to contribute I came across this one with a slightly different subject: sprites. This is really a very good report with some amazing shots and slow motions! Maybe a realtime detection of sprites could add some more help for the forecast of severe storms in the future?

Quoting 27. LargoFl:

you guys in florida..ever see one of these?..just found one in my yard................


you didn't touch it did you?
Great article! Near and dear to my heart for my custom lightning detector. The hard part of this alg is correlating specific storms/locations with this event.

I am still of mind that much lightning is generated not just by ice and water rubbing in the triboelectric series, but when water particles turns to ice and back. So when you see a column of rising cloud suddenly turn from that nice puffy look to ice when it hits a certain elevation, there is a strong correlation with quite a lot of lightning.

Column rises and freezes, net negative charge is gained. Descends and melts, net positive charge. Friction between particles likely adds to it.

When you consider the randomness of water molecules in liquid form vs. the organized form in ice (positive charges all facing inward with the hydrogen, oxygen outward), it makes sense that charge can be produced during phase transitions.

I could be quite wrong, with this theory, but when hurricanes don't contain much ice, or are not forming much ice except very high in the storms and in the most severe cases, there is not a heck of a lot of lightning.

These "peak" events could very well be correlating with a lot of cloud volume all freezing at once as it is tossed above the freeze line in strong updrafts, or all melting at once when dragged down with a down-burst.
No it isn't and the more people believe that the more likely they could die

wrong......if this was posted as somewhat credible by any agency...considering the error rate of genesis.....and the error rate of track...intensity...you name it....you would create apathy...and as such when something does come along....people would respond slower...and to a much lesser degree........

hey.....you...largo...and others enjoy long range models...post them....talk about them.....but let's not make them more than they are.....
Quoting 23. wunderkidcayman:



No it isn't and the more people believe that the more likely they could die


Anyway Jims predictions for this season

Tampa is one of them




oh stop.. if you aren't sophisticated enough to get the sarcasm, then let it alone...

you guys in florida..ever see one of these?..just found one in my yard................


we had a couple of them that took up residence in our yard on the east coast.....not sure there name...we called them legless lizards
Quoting 29. win1gamegiantsplease:


What makes intense, rapidly intensifying storms, or both capable of producing lightning when they're warm-core systems exactly? Katrina produced lightning at her first landfall in Florida, and Andrew produced lots of it (Link, there might be an advert before the film starts). Hurricane Emily I believe also produced lots of lightning detected over the water.

I can understand how the outer bands produce lightning, that was actually a spectacular thing to watch around midnight-1 am last year during Arthur.
I'm just guessing, but it's the interaction between the warm water and the colder upper air temperatures that contributes to the destabilization and tremendous lightning we see in tropical cyclones that are still out to sea. Once they move over land, they lose that moisture feed and the conditions for lightning, in general, decrease. Doesn't mean some storms won't contain lightning but, as a general rule, tropical cyclones over land produce less lightning than what you'd see with a typical strong continental low.
Quoting 31. indianrivguy:



you didn't touch it did you?
nope.looked it up on the web..says its a worm lizard and only lives in central florida, no where else in north America gee
Quoting 31. indianrivguy:



you didn't touch it did you?


If he did, he's a dead man walking. I just hope he hasn't spread it to his family. Notify the medical authorities immediately, and impose a strict quarantine.
Looks like after florida Casper visits the south east coastal states.......................
Quoting 27. LargoFl:
you guys in florida..ever see one of these?..just found one in my yard................
Arrgg! It's a wormlizard. We've got them up here too and they scare the heck out of me when I run into them crawling across the lawn. They're like some kind of giant, prehistoric worms. They're not dangerous but they are really nasty looking, at least to me.
Quoting 38. yonzabam:



If he did, he's a dead man walking. I just hope he hasn't spread it to his family. Notify the medical authorities immediately, and impose a strict quarantine.


cheers!
Good Afternoon Class! Thanks for the information Bob!

Another in a series of cold trofs to affect Sooo Cal tonight and tomorrow. This will be the 4th I think Friday precipitation maker in a row! This one pretty weak.......hopefully we can squeeze some rain out of it. SanDiego needs .20 of an inch to set the record for wettest May since records started being kept in 1850. Here's the forecast for rain totals the next 36 hours in Sooo Cal from NAM 4km model.

This what Eric Blake was referring too. Now that the Spring Barrier is just about passed models are coming into better agreement. Also the Stat models are just that low skill. The NMME mean is around 2.2C

IRI ‏@climatesociety 4h4 hours ago

Dynamical models are calling for a strong #ElNino, with a mean above 2ºC. #IRIforecast


Also the ESPI is @ its highest level in over 5 years @ 1.62. That is huge and combine that with a -16 SOI well its safe to say we are well on our way to a much stronger El-Nino than what is currently present.
Quoting 43. StormTrackerScott:

This what Eric Blake was referring too. Now that the Spring Barrier is just about passed models are coming into better agreement. Also the Stat models are just that low skill. The NMME mean is around 2.2C

IRI ‏@climatesociety 4h4 hours ago

Dynamical models are calling for a strong #ElNino, with a mean above 2ºC. #IRIforecast





IF, and it's a BIG IF the forecast comes true and does have the El Nino stay +2c or higher during the winter monthsD-J-F, Cali has a better than decent chance of enhanced rainfall! BRING IT ON!
Quoting 32. liquidsquid:
Great article! Near and dear to my heart for my custom lightning detector. The hard part of this alg is correlating specific storms/locations with this event.

I am still of mind that much lightning is generated not just by ice and water rubbing in the triboelectric series, but when water particles turns to ice and back. So when you see a column of rising cloud suddenly turn from that nice puffy look to ice when it hits a certain elevation, there is a strong correlation with quite a lot of lightning.

Column rises and freezes, net negative charge is gained. Descends and melts, net positive charge. Friction between particles likely adds to it.

When you consider the randomness of water molecules in liquid form vs. the organized form in ice (positive charges all facing inward with the hydrogen, oxygen outward), it makes sense that charge can be produced during phase transitions.

I could be quite wrong, with this theory, but when hurricanes don't contain much ice, or are not forming much ice except very high in the storms and in the most severe cases, there is not a heck of a lot of lightning.

These "peak" events could very well be correlating with a lot of cloud volume all freezing at once as it is tossed above the freeze line in strong updrafts, or all melting at once when dragged down with a down-burst.
Interesting hypothesis. Makes sense to me. I don't know if it makes sense to someone who's actually a pro about these things though. :-)
Quoting 45. HurricaneHunterJoe:



IF, and it's a BIG IF the forecast comes true and does have the El Nino stay +2c or higher during the winter monthsD-J-F, Cali has a better than decent chance of enhanced rainfall! BRING IT ON!


Rainy for you guys as well as the SE Coast with severe weather outbreaks likely across FL this Winter.

Quoting 23. wunderkidcayman:



No it isn't and the more people believe that the more likely they could die


Anyway Jims predictions for this season

Tampa is one of them




If you were to zoom the map in, say to city level, maybe, just maybe that red dot moves off of my house...
Quoting 39. LargoFl:

Looks like after florida Casper visits the south east coastal states.......................
Good name there
Quoting 39. LargoFl:

Looks like after florida Casper visits the south east coastal states.......................


That means sometime between now and then we get the B storm.
you'll like this scott....nasa says the ESPI is -.11



here
Quoting 2. LargoFl:

12Z GFS has a Casper storm once again............................................. .........

Looks like Barry 2007
Very interesting Bob, and I have to say this... Go Tampa Bay Lightning!
Back in 2013 I took this video of some lighting I thought was pretty neat at the time. As like many, a transplant to FL, we didn't have this kind of activity back home in MA.

MA summer rain storms, the severe kind, I came to learn are FL's normal every afternoon in the summer varieties. Which I actually enjoy.

What I liked about this lighting, was barely any thunder, and seemingly no ground contact, all inter cloud. This is shot in the North Naples area facing due North into Bonita Springs where i imagine the storm to be localized at the time. This was soon after sunset.


View on YouTube
Quoting 51. ricderr:

you'll like this scott....nasa says the ESPI is -.11



here


Depending on your program you have installed it may not update. Had this issue last year as well but its definitely 1.62 at last check.

Link
Depending on your program you have installed it may not update. Had this issue last year as well but its definitely 1.62 at last check.

the graphs update....the date is right...i know the number isn't right......is it showing 1.62 for you?
Quoting 56. ricderr:

Depending on your program you have installed it may not update. Had this issue last year as well but its definitely 1.62 at last check.

the graphs update....the date is right...i know the number isn't right......is it showing 1.62 for you?


Yes. 1.62 for me. It's rising roughly 10 points a day it seems.
Quoting 53. KDDFlorida:

Very interesting Bob, and I have to say this... Go Tampa Bay Lightning!


Unreal game last night. I love that they create their own lightning inside the arena.
Quoting 7. sar2401:

I'll be darned. Without knowing any better, I've been using lightning stroke rates for years to give me an idea of how bad a thunderstorm might be. Since the advent of lightning detectors on the net, this has been an easy parameter to look at, and my own non-scientific observations certainly agree with the studies. I'm in Alabama, so maybe there's soemthing odd about our thunderstorms, but I suspect that a jump in stroke rates is probably a good indicator of severity anywhere. On the other side of the coin, a rapid decrease in stroke rates has almost always been a sign of storms weakening below severe limits.


A large increase in lightning in a thunderstorm can be a good indication of severity of a thunderstorm for the simple reason that it results from strong updraft development. However, in the end, understanding if thunderstorms will be severe is better indicated of course by radar and observations. Forecasting severity of course is based on parameters that could lead to a thunderstorm meeting severe criteria.

However, since its parameters in place that determines if thunderstorms produce severe weather, lightning amount and increase can only determine things to a degree, especially when it comes to one part of the country to another, as well as season and storm system or lack of storm system.

For example, it's common to get thunderstorms reaching 45-55 K feet in height during the summer here in FL that produce a lot more lightning, specifically dangerous CG lightning, than a lot of severe thunderstorms in many other areas in the the country, and while a few of them do severe weather damage, most don't aside from flooding and lightning damage.
That's due to the often lack of parameters in a more tropical environment such as a lack of strong upper level winds, not as steep of lapse rates in the mid and upper levels, and too much moisture in the column,all of which limit severe wind and hail potential.

Usually when thunderstorms actually are severe in the summer down here, many including myself describe the lightning as seemingly end of the world bad. Lightning here can be down right scary sometimes.
Truthfully, I'm far more scared of lightning than damaging winds or hail anyway.

Quoting 25. wunderkidcayman:
Look this storm that GFS is predicting may or may not happen we just have to wait and see


The ECMWF at 240 hours (10 days) shows nothing but a big high sitting over the Southeast -



As does the CMC...except for that 1013 mb low in the BOC, just because the CMC always has to show a tropical low somewhere.



If either of these models agreed with the GFS, then we might be latching on to something. The important part with Ana was both the GFS and ECMWF agreed on a low forming pretty far out. In this case, none of the other major models agree with the GFS. Doesn't mean the GFS can't be right, but it certainly reduces the chances that it is.
Quoting 58. Bucsboltsfan:



Unreal game last night. I love that they create their own lightning inside the arena.


Yes, the Lightning has been amazing in Tampa this year! (Trying to be off topic in a sneaky sort of way, sorry!) Go Bolts!... and now back to your regularly scheduled weather programming.
Quoting 52. opal92nwf:


Looks like Barry 2007
Or 1946 Hurricane Six (Florida Hurricane)

Tornado Warning for SE Bertie County, NC near Windsor

Quoting 58. Bucsboltsfan:



Unreal game last night. I love that they create their own lightning inside the arena.


Please shoot me.
Quoting 61. KDDFlorida:



Yes, the Lightning has been amazing in Tampa this year! (Trying to be off topic in a sneaky sort of way, sorry!) Go Bolts!... and now back to your regularly scheduled weather programming.


Nearly 4" of rain in Apopka the other night. How much by you? Anyways storms refiring to my NW. Good look at them here.

Could see some of these storms go severe very quickly over the next few hours as it 95 here in Longwood.

And we have lift off again round 2 firing. First round went into South Orlando.

Under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch, I suspect we'll just get the tail end of it which is currently hovering the NC/SC state line.

last yr gt did a fine job of watching these modeled storms. been dry for awhile here in e cen fl. could use the rain
Quoting 67. islander101010:

last yr gt did a fine job of watching these modeled storms. been dry for awhile here in e cen fl. could use the rain


You didn't get any rain yesterday as that was one heck of a storm that moved over toward the Space Coast. There was hail and some of it large over in Oveido.
Quoting 27. LargoFl:

you guys in florida..ever see one of these?..just found one in my yard................
can you put your hand down next to it for scale??
Quoting 63. win1gamegiantsplease:

Tornado Warning for SE Bertie County, NC near Windsor



Please shoot me.


The Lightning are in Lundqvist's head big time. Last night after the gams he said that they are coming at him so fast from every direction. Long series though. Anything can happen.
Quoting 69. JNFlori30A:

can you put your hand down next to it for scale??


I could comment on that but it would result in a ban.

I see them every once in a while. Narely looking creatures.
Quoting 71. Bucsboltsfan:



I could comment on that but it would result in a ban.

I see them every once in a while. Narely looking creatures.
mine is about 11 inches long..he must have went back underground or a bird got him, he's gone.
Wow 87. Get that cookin GOM.
Re the Blog.. Thanks Mr. Henson, I've been a huge fan of lightning since my first backpacking trip in the Sierra's. When we did not die during one particularly horrific afternoon storm I decided that lightning was my friend. As an amateur photog I used to chase it since we had nothing else to chase in SoCal back in the day, and it was so rare. My takeaway from the blog is just confirmation that nature warns critters great and small to take cover when nasty weather is about.. Hope everyone has a pleasant afternoon!
Don't know if it's been approved by the site, but from the parking lot near the UNCW library facing west

The Florida Worm Lizard is certainly not a worm, though you could easily be fooled. With their underground, burrowing lifestyle and a pink body that appears to be segmented, they look and live a lot like a friendly earthworm. And at some 30 cm (1 foot) long, quite a large one at that. They even climb up to the surface when it rains too hard!

However, Worm Lizards are actually the reptiles who belong to a group known as Amphisbaenia. This in turn is within the order Squamata, which also contains all the snakes and lizards. The exact details of the relationship between snakes, Amphisbaenians and all those four-legged reptiles we call lizards is far from clear, but I doubt our Florida Worm Lizard worries his pretty, little head about that.
Quoting 64. StormTrackerScott:



Nearly 4" of rain in Apopka the other night. How much by you? Anyways storms refiring to my NW. Good look at them here.

Could see some of these storms go severe very quickly over the next few hours as it 95 here in Longwood.



We didn't receive that much I don't believe, but yesterday evening I drove though a cloud burst near Zellwood that was flooding roads.
sea breeze showers popping up! they can get nasty e cen fl
Getting real dark now, these storms are still an hour away as they're moving at around 20-25 mph to the east. Haven't heard any thunder yet but I suspect I'll see a few flashes soon...And just as I'm getting out of the car not only did I see lightning and hear thunder but Columbus County is under a Tornado Warning, which is the same part of the line that will likely affect New Hanover County as the storms are moving basically due east. Also a Severe Tstorm Warning issued for Brunswick County.



Quoting 70. Bucsboltsfan:



The Lightning are in Lundqvist's head big time. Last night after the gams he said that they are coming at him so fast from every direction. Long series though. Anything can happen.


Bishop actually had a worse sv% last night with our missed chances and less sog, Henrik is getting shelled and while he isn't as sharp for sure, the D has been dreadful. The triplets aren't finding all that space on their own, not to knock them they've been great and they're either my age or younger which is scary. Probably why they're coming so fast at him is because the ice isn't being covered well. They left Johnson and Palat wide open in front of the goal twice.
Quoting 65. StormTrackerScott:

And we have lift off again round 2 firing. First round went into South Orlando.





It's ironic the models bring in deep high pressure and dry air next week as we approach June, the normal start of the rainy season, after a lot of moisture, instability and sea breeze thunderstorms throughout a good portion of April and May.

It's not a good sign either, I hate deep layered high pressure, it has a tendency to dominate and stick around a while, and is not usually something we see for the end of May. It looks more like a typical late April/early May pattern. Hopefully the models are wrong about next week.
82. IDTH
Was going to go to swim practice but I don't think that would be wise anymore. I think the Tornado Warning expired though, it's not showing up anymore.
Quoting 78. islander101010:

sea breeze showers popping up! they can get nasty e cen fl


I love seeing FL radar when they form, once the cells creep towards the water they popcorn as I like to call it.
Just curious.

There are nasty storms in Anchorage and little to no lightning, how does that theory apply to here? (In the past year up here I have only heard thunder, the sound of lightning once). We were in a group of people and being from Florida the only ones when it happened that didn't jump out of our skin. (It wasn't raining where we were and the thunder came from the mountains behind us)

We were told it doesn't thunder/lightning around here all that often.
A tornado caused some damage in the county over about 30 minutes ago. First clear TDS I've seen in my WFO in a while. Just a lot of rain, thunder, and lightning here.

Quoting 81. ncstorm:




I'll have to zoom in on a radar but if the signature is well defined they should probably issue a warning for northern Brunswick too. Stay safe this evening.
Quoting 85. TropicalAnalystwx13:

A tornado caused some damage in the county over about 30 minutes ago. First clear TDS I've seen in my WFO in a while. Just a lot of rain, thunder, and lightning here.




Looks like they've cancelled the warning, hasn't rained yet here but that cell is a comin'
Send some rain up to Central Alaska... Wild fires are popping up all over. One is threatening to close the Alaska Highway between the Canadian Border and Tok, AK.

wildfire-straddling-alaska-highway-grows-to-acres
89. JRRP


Quoting 84. Dakster:

Just curious.

There are nasty storms in Anchorage and little to no lightning, how does that theory apply to here? (In the past year up here I have only heard thunder, the sound of lightning once). We were in a group of people and being from Florida the only ones when it happened that didn't jump out of our skin. (It wasn't raining where we were and the thunder came from the mountains behind us)

We were told it doesn't thunder/lightning around here all that often.



I spent 2 years in Kenia and never heard thunder .. and we didn't have any thunder storms .. but rain could be quite heavy coming off the inlet and fog thicker then I have seen anywhere on the east coast !!

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 645 PM EDT

* AT 345 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE MINOR FLOODING IN THE ADVISORY
AREA. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
CORAL GABLES...SOUTH MIAMI...KENDALL...THE REDLAND AND PINECREST.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE INCH IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN
URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES.

&&
The strongest part of the line to impact Carolina Beach, Monkey Junction, and Kure Beach

We dont look to Africa in May, nor June for seedling pouches.

But the image is cool.
A Portlight Featured Blog entry



Photo: The New York Times

The Right To Be Rescued: Disability Justice in an Age of Disaster

Adrien A. Weibgen

Yale Law Journal

As communities face more and more climate-related challenges, they will face more moral ones as well. Although it is tempting to think of weather and climate incidents as natural disasters, that is a misnomer; nearly all natural disasters arise in part from human error or oversight.5 More fundamentally, the choices we make about where to live, how to live, and how to build put us at risk for disasters. In this way, disasters are socially constructed. How we choose to respond to the urgent human needs that arise from large-scale weather events determines the degree to which these events become disasters. As disasters become more frequent, social inequalities will be thrown into sharper relief, and the consequences of such inequalities will become increasingly dire. Communities will be forced to grapple with two essential questions: in preparing for disasters, how ready is ready enough, and to what degree should identity and social status determine who is put in danger, left in misery, and left to die?


Locally, beaucoup Outflow boundaries



Storm damage near Delco, NC

Link
A pet peeve of mine......if folks are posting radar loops, please rehost and save a static loop - not hard to do. 18 gazillion times I've seen posts of impending DOOM at x hour after having not checked the blog for awhile only to see a loop with no convection.

Static loop from Mobile that won't change if one checks now or 6AM tomorrow morning. Show's what was going on at the time.

A 5.63 inch per Hour Rain rate due West of me.

Wow
Maybe try the HIDE feature.

Thats why we have it on every comment.

I don't hide comments/ignore anyone and not directing my comment towards anyone. I've seen it time and time again from many and for those who aren't on the blog all day/every day it would be nice to witness what the obs were at the time of posting.
Quoting 90. whitewabit:



I spent 2 years in Kenia and never heard thunder .. and we didn't have any thunder storms .. but rain could be quite heavy coming off the inlet and fog thicker then I have seen anywhere on the east coast !!
I lived in Juneau for 4 years and don't recall ever experiencing lightning. And in my 9 years in San Francisco, I think maybe once or twice we had lightning. Now I'm in Bend, OR and it has "continental" weather. Lots of lightning here in the summers. Lots of lightning induced wildfires as well.
Tops to 47,000 ft

Quoting 98. win1gamegiantsplease:

Storm damage near Delco, NC

Link

Looks EF1-type damage.
361  
WFUS54 KCRP 212201  
TORCRP  
TXC273-355-212230-  
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0041.150521T2201Z-150521T2230Z/  
 
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  
TORNADO WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX  
501 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A  
 
* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  
SOUTHWESTERN NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
NORTHWESTERN KLEBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM CDT  
 
* AT 500 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM  
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED  
OVER BISHOP...OR NEAR KINGSVILLE...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.  
 
* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  
KINGSVILLE AROUND 510 PM CDT.  
KINGSVILLE NAVAL AIR STATION AROUND 525 PM CDT.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
MOTORISTS SHOULD NOT TAKE SHELTER UNDER HIGHWAY OVERPASSES. IF YOU  
CANNOT SAFELY DRIVE AWAY FROM THE TORNADO...AS A LAST RESORT...EITHER  
PARK YOUR VEHICLE AND STAY PUT...OR ABANDON YOUR VEHICLE AND LIE DOWN  
IN A LOW LYING AREA AND PROTECT YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 2759 9791 2768 9773 2753 9763 2745 9782  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 332DEG 8KT 2757 9779  
 
 
 
JV  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab TX Page

Main Text Page

Quoting 106. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Looks EF1-type damage.


Agreed, low-end ef1
Quoting 102. StAugustineFL:

I don't hide comments/ignore anyone and not directing my comment towards anyone. I've seen it time and time again from many and for those who aren't on the blog all day/every day it would be nice to witness what the obs were at the time of posting.

I second this, which is why I imgur most of the images I post. If you want to read back through the events of Hurricane Sandy, or Moore/El Reno day, etc. it's hard because you can't see any of the images that were posted.
Quoting 101. Patrap:

Maybe try the HIDE feature.

Thats why we have it on every comment.




Perhaps if you slowed your radar loop down, the outflow boundaries, would be noticeable. Your loop was so fast, it was hard to see anything happening. Also, hosting the image, allows it to remain the same, at all times. This one is posted to Imgur. If you need assistance, I would be happy to provide easy instructions. Just let me know.

Quoting 80. Jedkins01:




It's ironic the models bring in deep high pressure and dry air next week as we approach June, the normal start of the rainy season, after a lot of moisture, instability and sea breeze thunderstorms throughout a good portion of April and May.

It's not a good sign either, I hate deep layered high pressure, it has a tendency to dominate and stick around a while, and is not usually something we see for the end of May. It looks more like a typical late April/early May pattern. Hopefully the models are wrong about next week.
I really hope not, especially considering the fact that we haven't picked up significant rain here in a month. Not a droughty summer, ugh.
Quoting 111. HurrMichaelOrl:



Sorry, my post ended up with the quoted one.
Interesting looking bubble of moisture and energy diving toward the Gulf of Campeche from Brownsville. On the Brownsville radar it's not very intense but seems to have some rotation, and there are nice water temps South of it. Could it spin up if it gets to the spin pocket?
Its a tough crowd today.

: P


Plus, I never Host on Thursday.
Quoting 114. Patrap:




Is this guy going to swim out, spin up and slosh back? TX gets a good chunk of A-Ds. It just
really started making a show a few hours ago.
Quoting 90. whitewabit:



I spent 2 years in Kenia and never heard thunder .. and we didn't have any thunder storms .. but rain could be quite heavy coming off the inlet and fog thicker then I have seen anywhere on the east coast !!


The fog up here is no joke... And in the winter you get a bonus. Freezing Fog. Everything the fog touches turns to ice - like your windshield.

Severity of storms (and when they will form) is a HUGE, BIG, GIGANTIC, GINARMOUS, issue here. Anything that will help that get better is a bonus....

I always though Florida was weird with it raining in the backyard and not the front - but the difference a 1/4 - 1/2 mile makes here is just insane. From 60's to snowing and 30F... Walk 50 foot and there is 50 mph wind to calm... Mountains are just funny that way. Granted I am learning where these conditions exist so as time goes on it isn't that much of a shock.

when "Diamond Dust" rolls in EVERYTHING shuts down .. no movement at all .. nothing you can do in that type of ice fog .. have seen it very heavy .. but sure is beautiful to see if you have color lights to shine on it ..
Quoting 88. Dakster:

Send some rain up to Central Alaska... Wild fires are popping up all over. One is threatening to close the Alaska Highway between the Canadian Border and Tok, AK.

wildfire-straddling-alaska-highway-grows-to-acres


I would have bet that the new post was about this melting and flooding in northern Alaska due to the unusual warm temperatures up there but it wasn't (could still happen tomorrow though, causing another row of GW discussions in here, lol):



Flooding of Dalton Highway
NASA Earth Observatory, May 21, 2015
Earlier this spring, it was runaway ice that gummed up the Dalton Highway in far northern Alaska. Now, after an unseasonably warm spring, floodwater has closed the only access road to Prudhoe Bay, a major U.S. oil field along the Arctic Ocean. On an average day, more than 100 trucks make the sixteen hour trip from Fairbanks to Deadhorse, a small town at the end of the Dalton Highway populated by seasonal oil workers. Authorities expect the highway to remain closed until after the river crests later this week or next.
The Operational Land Imager (OLI) on Landsat 8 captured a view of the flooding on May 19, 2015. ...

More see link above.



Flooding closes another 40 miles of Dalton Highway
Newsminer.com, posted: Wednesday, May 20, 2015 6:32 pm | Updated: 9:37 am, Thu May 21, 2015, by Robin Wood
Excerpt: Running water and melting ice from the Sagavanirktok River are responsible for flood conditions. Ice that accumulated in March and April - which also resulted in a spate of road closures and a state disaster declaration - has been rapidly melting because of record-breaking temperatures.
Barrow set or tied temperature records on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service. Tuesday's record high of 46 degrees eclipsed the normal high for that date of 27 degrees.
Hey guys the official by the NHC tropical wave in the atlantic is out

Quoting 118. whitewabit:

when "Diamond Dust" rolls in EVERYTHING shuts down .. no movement at all .. nothing you can do in that type of ice fog .. have seen it very heavy .. but sure is beautiful to see if you have color lights to shine on it ..


Would be really dangerous to try to do anything in it. All kinds of one car accidents in that stuff. Some don't turn out too well for the occupants either. If that stuff is around, we all stay home. I like the snow forecasts here, expect anywhere from 2 inches to 3 feet in some areas... I do realize that this area represents a tiny fraction of the population, so I don't anticipate much work being done in improving forecasts here.
Oh yeah 18Z GFS a shows our W Carib/SE GOM/Florida storm still
Hi Dakster,
"Severity of storms (and when they will form) is a HUGE, BIG, GIGANTIC, GINARMOUS, issue here. Anything that will help that get better is a bonus...."

I'm not tracking on that. Do you mean winter storms?
Quoting 121. Dakster:



Would be really dangerous to try to do anything in it. All kinds of one car accidents in that stuff. Some don't turn out too well for the occupants either. If that stuff is around, we all stay home. I like the snow forecasts here, expect anywhere from 2 inches to 3 feet in some areas... I do realize that this area represents a tiny fraction of the population, so I don't anticipate much work being done in improving forecasts here.


LOL .. we had some of those too .. the thing was they could be right .. least where I was .. if we had a storm coming in across the inlet before it froze we could get anywhere from 2 inches to 3 feet !!

I've seen it snow 10 inches in less then 2 hours .. and the roads would be clear an hour later ..
125. JRRP
Quoting 122. wunderkidcayman:

Oh yeah 18Z GFS a shows our W Carib/SE GOM/Florida storm still

near CV



lol

Bill?
Quoting 118. whitewabit:

when "Diamond Dust" rolls in EVERYTHING shuts down .. no movement at all .. nothing you can do in that type of ice fog .. have seen it very heavy .. but sure is beautiful to see if you have color lights to shine on it ..


Experienced that only once on a Ferry near Tromso, back in the NATO days of 84'

The Lighting was spectacular.

Quoting 125. JRRP:


near CV



lol


Huh
Near CV Islands
Looks like tropical wave with a weak low

Quoting 126. HurricaneAndre:


Bill?


That's what GFS shows starting at about late next weekend going into first week in June about 240hrs or so
nice lightning pictures



doom!


HEAVY RAIN going out to sea and will miss the northeast



Drenching the South and Plains

NASA Earth Observatory, May 22, 2015
Much of the high plains and south central regions of the continental United States have been unusually dry for some time. In particular, parts of Texas and Oklahoma have been in a drought for nearly five years. In April and May 2015, the weather fortunes of those states took a turn for the other extreme.
Large swaths of Texas, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Lousiana have been soaked by as much as 20 inches (500 millimeters) of rainfall in the past 30 days. Several cities are approaching their wettest May on record even though the month has ten days to go. ...

Nice to read this - even if it may be a bit too much right now - after all this drought earlier (more see link above).
With that good night from Europe!
In Pursuit of May Rainfall Records
Shaded areas show estimated rainfall since the start of May 2015. Specific numbers plotted on the map are actual totals from airport observations and CoCoRaHS volunteer observers.
From Nebraska to Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas, several cities have already seen one of their wettest Mays on record. Here's a look at where things stand right now:

Fort Smith, Arkansas – This western Arkansas city has now recorded its wettest May in history with 13.85 inches of rain through Wednesday. The old record was 13.67 inches from May 1943.

Oklahoma City – With 13.90 inches of rain through May 20, Oklahoma City is less than an inch away from not only seeing its wettest May on record, but also its wettest month. The current wettest May was just two years ago in 2013 when 14.52 inches was recorded. June 1989 holds the title as the wettest month overall with 14.66 inches of rain.

Lubbock, Texas – 7.40 inches of rain has fallen through May 20, ranking as the third wettest May on record. Less than an inch of additional rain will vault Lubbock to its second wettest May. The total would have to rise to 12.69 inches to claim the title for the wettest May. According to the National Weather Service, the last time it rained 7.20 inches or more in a month in Lubbock was September 2008.

Wichita Falls, Texas – 12.49 inches of rain has fallen through May 20. It's the third-wettest May and third-wettest month on record. Less than an inch of additional rain would make this the wettest month in city history; the top two months are May 1982 (13.22 inches) and May 1901 (12.79 inches).

Corpus Christi, Texas – Rainfall in May 2015 is at 8.12 inches through May 20. This total needs to climb to 10.44 inches to tie the May record set in 1941.

Amarillo, Texas – 6.17 inches of rain has fallen through May 20, tying as the eighth wettest May on record. The all-time record is 9.81 inches in May 1951.

Lincoln, Nebraska – 10.40 inches of rain has fallen through May 20, ranking as the second wettest May in the Nebraska capital. Just over a third of an inch of rain will surpass the current wettest May record of 10.72 inches set in 1903.

Colorado Springs, Colorado – 6.07 inches of rain at Colorado Springs Municipal Airport through May 20 ranks as the second wettest May on record. The wettest May was in 1935 when 8.10 inches was recorded. Interestingly, several co-operative and volunteer observation sites only a few miles west of the airport have picked up 10 to 12 inches of rain this month.

Pueblo, Colorado – A total of 4.61 inches of rain has fallen through May 20, making it the second wettest May on record. The wettest May was in 1957 when 5.43 inches was measured.

Every day since May 5 – that's 17 straight days as of this writing – has brought at least 4 inches of rainfall to at least one location in the state of Texas, according to CoCoRaHS, the Community Collaborative Rain, Hail and Snow Network. At least 86 of the volunteer network's 1,699 reporting sites in Texas have recorded at least 10 inches of rain this month. The wettest of all has been Archer City, about 120 miles northwest of Dallas, with total of 19.54 inches through the morning of May 21.

Oklahoma has also taken a drenching this month, with month-to-date totals topping 10 inches across much of the southern half of the state. One CoCoRaHS site on the northeast side of Norman has reported 19.85 inches of rain since May 1, including three different days with 24-hour rainfall totals topping 3 inches. Other overwhelming month-to-date totals through early May 21 include 18.21 inches near Marietta, 17.11 inches near Shawnee and 16.79 inches near Mountain Park.

Among other states in the May rainy zone, top month-to-date totals by state include 16.26 inches near Uniontown in northwest Arkansas; 14.60 inches near Ruston in northern Louisiana; 12.73 inches near Fairbury in southeast Nebraska; 12.31 inches in the Ivywild neighborhood of Colorado Springs, Colorado; 10.91 inches near Webber in north-central Kansas; and 10.18 inches near Plattsburg in northwest Missouri.
As far as the OK rainfall goes, for some areas the exceptional drought from 2011 hadn't ended. This is from NWS Tulsa so includes part of AR. This week's drought monitor vs two weeks ago.
135. JRRP
Quoting 128. wunderkidcayman:



Huh
Near CV Islands
Looks like tropical wave with a weak low



That's what GFS shows starting at about late next weekend going into first week in June about 240hrs or so

who is saying the opposite?, just looks interesting
New TWD

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLIER TODAY
EMBEDDED IN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE SSMI
TPW IMAGERY. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS LOCATED FROM 02N TO 10N NEAR 18W.
Quoting 132. barbamz:

Drenching the South and Plains

NASA Earth Observatory, May 22, 2015
Much of the high plains and south central regions of the continental United States have been unusually dry for some time. In particular, parts of Texas and Oklahoma have been in a drought for nearly five years. In April and May 2015, the weather fortunes of those states took a turn for the other extreme.
Barb,

Here's some comparable maps, looking at this region from the standpoint of drought.

Current drought monitor map:        MAY 19, 2015



One year ago drought monitor map:



Changes this dramatic might just offer up some hope to the folks in California.
An outbreak of tropical cyclones is likely across the East Pacific over the next week to two weeks as a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave enters the basin. The image below is a time-longitudional plot; the y-axis (descending) represents dates and the x-axis represents longitude. For reference, 180 is the International Date Line. Blue and purple colors represent upper-level divergence, or air that spreads apart high up. Ultimately, this helps lower surface pressures and strengthen disturbances/cyclones (sometimes rapidly). Manilla and orange colors represent just the opposite.

Quoting 114. Patrap:






Main culprit Monster ULL (clearly visible on water vapor loop) coming from West/Pacific/Mexico that will trigger multiple disturbances into the state of TX. And it started today with this blob in western portions of South Central Texas traversing along the Rio Grande and exiting southern Texas now south of Brownsville ! Believe called a Mesoscale that traveled for hundreds of miles! A piece of energy left behind and mixing with stationary boundary along middle Texas coast erupted this afternoon. Resulting in a 4"+ deluge in Corpus Christi. Lots of flooding. More in our forecast!
EPAC is getting more active. These two systems are being inhibited by dry air but the conditions should get better

Read more

Quoting 120. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys the official by the NHC tropical wave in the atlantic is out


Yep i have been waiting for that first wave . Let the wave train roll ! Each one has the potential to become a TS
Quoting 138. TropicalAnalystwx13:

An outbreak of tropical cyclones is likely across the East Pacific over the next week to two weeks as a strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave enters the basin. The image below is a time-longitudional plot; the y-axis (descending) represents dates and the x-axis represents longitude. For reference, 180 is the International Date Line. Blue and purple colors represent upper-level divergence, or air that spreads apart high up. Ultimately, this helps lower surface pressures and strengthen disturbances/cyclones (sometimes rapidly). Manilla and orange colors represent just the opposite.




Also tropical cyclones could be possible across the Caribbean GOM and Bahamas SEUS Coast region about week 2 or so as that same strong convectively-coupled kelvin wave spreads across to 80°W-60°W if the conditions are favoured at the time
Quoting 113. CaneFreeCR:
Interesting looking bubble of moisture and energy diving toward the Gulf of Campeche from Brownsville. On the Brownsville radar it's not very intense but seems to have some rotation, and there are nice water temps South of it. Could it spin up if it gets to the spin pocket?


Considering the current wind shear, howling upper level winds, and the fact the thing in Texas has no organization, it doesn't seem likely.

Just Epic!


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU MAY 21 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave located about 1250 miles southwest of the southern
tip of Baja California continues to produce a large area of
disorganized cloudiness and showers. Environmental conditions
are expected to become conducive for slow development of this
system during the next several days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

A broad area of low pressure is located about 2000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of Baja California. Some development of this
system is possible during the next several days while the low moves
slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
Quoting 27. LargoFl:

you guys in florida..ever see one of these?..just found one in my yard................


If the scale is right (are those long straight things pine needles?) it's a tiny kind of snake, about twice the size of a large earthworm, the eyes are almost vestigal, and they eat grubs and worms. I forget what they're called, but we had 'em under rocks and such in Southeastern PA. Neat little guys, the ones we had in PA were brownish.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GALE WARNING BY METEO FRANCE FOR THE ZONE OF AGADIR ALONG THE
COAST OF MOROCCO REMAINS IN EFFECT. BEAFORT 7-8 OR 32 TO 46 KT
WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR THIS ZONE AS VERY TIGHT PRES GRADIENT
WITH ISOBARIC SPACING OF ONLY 60-100 NM BETWEEN STRONG HIGH PRES
OF 1035 MB WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AT 43W17W...AND LOW
PRES TO ITS E AND SE OVER NORTHERN AFRICA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CAME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST EARLIER TODAY
EMBEDDED IN ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS INDICATED BY THE SSMI
TPW IMAGERY. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A DIFFLUENT
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT WITHIN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WHICH IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 300 NM EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS LOCATED FROM 02N TO 10N NEAR 18W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
Local Weather 9:33 PM EDT on May 21, 2015 cool weather for may 21 2015 in the northeast
Overcast
East Haven, Connecticut
53 �F
Overcast
Quoting 137. rayduray2013:

Barb,

Here's some comparable maps, looking at this region from the standpoint of drought.

Current drought monitor map:        MAY 19, 2015



One year ago drought monitor map:



Changes this dramatic might just offer up some hope to the folks in California.



Its harder for California to break out of the drought since there is almost no rain during half of the year, so even in good rain years, it is still pretty dry by the time September or October rolls around.
the wunderposter seems familiar:
Link
how is it possible to feel too young and too old all in the same moment?
NWS confirms tornado touchdown about a 45 minutes' drive west of me in Borton, near Delco, Columbus County, NC. Damage from this tornado also leaked into northern Brunswick County off US 74.
Quoting 151. WaterWitch11:

the wunderposter seems familiar:
Link
how is it possible to feel too young and too old all in the same moment?


Dunno, the late 90's is about as early of radio hits I can remember as a millenial, but I never could get into James Hetfield's voice anyway ending every line with "eeeyah!" Then again I don't like Eddie Vedder's either...sounds like Stevie Nicks after a laryngectomy to me.
155. 882MB
Quoting 154. Gearsts:




GFS joins both circulations into 1, and develop it into a tropical storm. Lets see if this pans out.



I've been keeping up with the severe weather, i just haven't blogged about it. However, i did find a few recurring themes with this severe weather season.


Link



However, soon we'll be in hurricane season so that's not my area of expertise. There are way more knowledgeable people on here who know way more about hurricanes than i do. :)

It'll be interesting to see what the epac does.

Quoting 150. nwobilderburg:



Its harder for California to break out of the drought since there is almost no rain during half of the year, so even in good rain years, it is still pretty dry by the time September or October rolls around.
You are right of course. And I should have clarified my comment by saying that in a year's time, thing might look dramatically different in CA, just as is indicated in two drought maps of the Southwest region. :)

My hope is that January is a wet and cold month on Sunset Boulevard as well as Tioga Pass.
Quoting 157. rayduray2013:


You are right of course. And I should have clarified my comment by saying that in a year's time, thing might look dramatically different in CA, just as is indicated in two drought maps of the Southwest region. :)

My hope is that January is a wet and cold month on Sunset Boulevard as well as Tioga Pass.



Me too. Considering how bad the drought is in California, I haven't really noticed too many bad effects from it that I directly notice. I mean I notice that it's hotter than normal, but it doesn't feel the same as it would in Texas in 2011, with all those 100 degree days in a row. It just feels slightly warmer than normal, and a lot more sunny, warmish days in the winter. It just kinda shows how disconnected most of of us are from nature and weather in this modern world. I mean if we were all still hunter-gatherers, us Californian's would be struggling to survive, but since we are isolated from the effects nowadays, people seem to not really pay attention to the environment until there's some disaster or crisis.
Quoting 123. Barefootontherocks:

Hi Dakster,
"Severity of storms (and when they will form) is a HUGE, BIG, GIGANTIC, GINARMOUS, issue here. Anything that will help that get better is a bonus...."

I'm not tracking on that. Do you mean winter storms?


Yes... SInce winter here is most of the year.
Quoting 156. TimTheWxMan:

I've been keeping up with the severe weather, i just haven't blogged about it. However, i did find a few recurring themes with this severe weather season.


Link



However, soon we'll be in hurricane season so that's not my area of expertise. There are way more knowledgeable people on here who know way more about hurricanes than i do. :)

It'll be interesting to see what the epac does.


I won't put myself out as the most knowledgeable person as I do more learning than teaching on the blog, however I think it's likely that we'll see above average activity in the epac this year, likely approaching or eclipsing 20 named storms; I'd say 10 or 11 hurricanes, 6 or 7 majors. This coming week dry air might inhibit some development but I think we'll see a named system or two within the next 10-14 days, and should pick up by and after then.

161. Tygor
Quoting 150. nwobilderburg:



Its harder for California to break out of the drought since there is almost no rain during half of the year, so even in good rain years, it is still pretty dry by the time September or October rolls around.


It really doesn't rain much in Texas from June-October either.
The 00Z GFS still shows W Carib/GOM/SEUS storm

So far it's been consistent

One key to help determine if this is not a ghost storm is consistency

Also with this run it also hints at the possibility of seeing the 3rd atlantic storm as well
Way to far out to say if this hint has ghostly intentions or not we will have to wait and see

Anyway with the kelvin wave and MJO expected in the area I wouldn't doubt the possibility of the 2nd atlantic storm and I wouldn't doubt the possibility of the hint of #3

In terms of the EPac I wouldn't be surprised to find 3 tropical systems there too
163. emguy
Still waaaaaaayyyy too far out in crystal ball land my friend. Doubt it happens.

Quoting 162. wunderkidcayman:

The 00Z GFS still shows W Carib/GOM/SEUS storm

So far it's been consistent

One key to help determine if this is not a ghost storm is consistency

Also with this run it also hints at the possibility of seeing the 3rd atlantic storm as well
Way to far out to say if this hint has ghostly intentions or not we will have to wait and see

Anyway with the kelvin wave and MJO expected in the area I wouldn't doubt the possibility of the 2nd atlantic storm and I wouldn't doubt the possibility of the hint of #3

In terms of the EPac I wouldn't be surprised to find 3 tropical systems there too
Quoting 163. emguy:

Still waaaaaaayyyy too far out in crystal ball land my friend. Doubt it happens.




Yeah it's a bit far out but it's not that far out
It's not in the 300+ hr range but in the 200+ range and it starts up in the early to mid 200hr range so as I said not that far out

Yeah as I've stated we will have to watch it over the next week
im a bull. it makes sense its been dry in that part of the world (n.w.carib) for quite awhile. the sea water is very warm (80s+) and its that time of yr. hopefully we can get some early season numbers and el nino peters out. i feel like im shaking the dice in las vegas. better chances for sure
Good Morning..

Quoting 165. islander101010:

im a bull. it makes sense its been dry in that part of the world (n.w.carib) for quite awhile. the sea water is very warm (80s+) and its that time of yr. hopefully we can get some early season numbers and el nino peters out. i feel like im shaking the dice in las vegas. better chances for sure


Btw talking about El nino

Currently 3.4 values have been the lowest since early April



Also Caribbean is starting to catch up

Good morning everyone, If you have a 4 day weekend, enjoy! But remember those who have fallen for our Country (USA). Well this forecast for my area really stinks!



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...POOR BOATING/HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS FOR HOLIDAY WEEKEND...
...RAIN COVERAGE STILL LOOKS LOW...

CURRENT...WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
SINKING SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL LIE ACROSS THE
I-4 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH SOME LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS THINNING AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
FROM THE PREVIOUS EVENINGS CONVECTION. MILD TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
READINGS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE. WEST/SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE FAIRLY LIGHT.

TODAY-TONIGHT...THE WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER TO
THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH THIS MORNING BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...FINALLY
TO NNE IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EARLIER NEAR THE COAST. THE ONSET OF
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD BE EARLIER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS
WINDS VEER BEHIND THE FRONT AND THE BOUNDARY WILL MAKE FURTHER
PENETRATION INLAND. HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE FOUND
IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY WITH FORECAST VALUES APPROACHING 1.80
INCHES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE TREASURE
COAST/OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. 500 MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND
-9C.

AREAS SOUTHWARD FROM ORLANDO WILL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR DEEP
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS NEAR ORLANDO. WILL GO WITH 30 TO 40 PERCENT POPS
SOUTHWARD FROM HERE ACROSS ECFL. GENERALLY THE MAIN THREATS WITH
AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WITH HAIL TO
QUARTER SIZE AND WINDS TO AROUND 60 MPH. LOCAL PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADWAYS WILL BE A HAZARD FOR HEAVIER CELLS. STORM STEERING FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE WNW/NW AT 5-10 MPH. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE EVENING SOUTHWARD WITH CLOUD DEBRIS THINNING
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE M/U 80S VOLUSIA COAST...U80S TO NEAR 90
DEGREES FURTHER SOUTHWARD DOWN THE COAST WITH L/M 90S AGAIN INTO THE
INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE U60S/L70S.

SAT-MON...A TRANSITION TO AN EASTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL START SAT AS
HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY VICINITY EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
NORTH FLORIDA AND DEEPEN THE ONSHORE FLOW. SOME HIGHER MOISTURE
WILL LINGER FROM THE FRONT ON SAT...THEN DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL
DECREASE MOISTURE WHILE TEMPS ALOFT STEADILY WARM.

THIS WILL CAUSE HIGHEST POPS AND MAIN STORM CHANCES TO SHIFT INLAND
AND TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. 00Z GFS
MOS VALUES WERE 20 PERCENT INLAND AND 10-20 PERCENT ALONG THE
COAST...SO WILL FOLLOW DECREASING CONSENSUS POP TREND WITH MAX OF
30 PERCENT INLAND AND 20 PERCENT COAST. MAIN COASTAL CHANCES
SHOULD BE NIGHT/MORNING...BUT WITH QUITE LOW POPS...WILL NOT CARRY
OVERNIGHT POPS OVER LAND.

THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER MAX TEMPS AT THE COAST TO
THE MID 80S...AND EVEN INLAND WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 TO THE LOWER
90S. OVERNIGHT LOW WILL BE VERY MILD IN THE LOWER/MID 70S.

TUE-FRI...LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE ONSHORE WIND FLOW REGIME...THOUGH
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY
LATE WEEK. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND THE GFS SHOWS
A FEW RIBBONS OF VERY DRY AIR ADVECTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC AND INTO THE LOCAL AREA. THIS WILL KEEP POPS LOW...SO NO
REAL/TRUE ONSET OF THE WET SEASON IS EVIDENT FOR EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA.

'Epic' flooding on Dalton Highway hinders North Slope oil operations


DEADHORSE -- Unprecedented flooding continues to interfere with daily operations on the North Slope oil patch after surging waters wiped away swaths of the Dalton Highway and isolated a section of Deadhorse, the jumping-off point for the sprawling industrial region.

“This is just epic,” said Mike Coffey, commander of the unified incident command, a response team consisting of the state, the North Slope Borough and oil companies. “People who have been here for decades say they’ve never seen anything like it.”


Link
... Another record high temperature for Barrow...

Todays high temperature so far has been 47 degrees... ..
Breaking the old daily record of 41 degrees set in 2011 and is
the warmest temperature for so early in the season.
This is very important to believing the Strong El-Nino forecast on so many Climate models because there is another warm pool quickly growing around the Dateline. Also there are now 6C anomalies beneath Nino 3.4. Very important to see these trends as last year we did not see this kind of evaluation.



Barrow, Alaska: The Last Place You’d Expect to Find Record Warmth

Barrow, Alaska, set daily record high temperatures three straight days May 17-19, topping out at 46 degrees Tuesday. Then on Thursday another record high of 47 degrees was set.

This may not sound warm to you, but north of the Arctic Circle, this is extreme warmth for late May.


Link
175. MahFL
Quoting 134. Barefootontherocks:

As far as the OK rainfall goes, for some areas the exceptional drought from 2011 hadn't ended. This is from NWS Tulsa so includes part of AR. This week's drought monitor vs two weeks ago.



The exceptional drought has ended, it's severe drought now. More rain is forecast too.
invest 90E IS here
177. MahFL
Quoting 158. nwobilderburg:



Me too. Considering how bad the drought is in California, I haven't really noticed too many bad effects from it that I directly notice.


Most people don't realize that 90 % of crop production is still going on in California, they are using ground water and water from reservoirs. Drought just means the areas not irrigated are bone dry.
Also it's raining again in California.

:LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS CALIFORNIA
CITY IN THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY."
CZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI MAY 22 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms
associated with a tropical wave is located about 1350 miles
southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Environmental
conditions are becoming more conducive for development of
this system during the next several days while it moves west-
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

2. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
located about 2000 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja
California has become more concentrated this morning. Some
development of this system is possible during the next couple of
days while the low moves slowly northwestward. After that time,
development is less likely due to the proximity of the disturbance
to its northeast.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Beven
The western Carib is under dry air and subsiding air that has been persistent since March.
Unless the upper level pattern sees a dramatic shift even at 200 hrs it's a software clutch.
I do see a slight change in a few days but just enough for maybe a daytime shower.
I flew by cancun yesterday and the entire eastern peninsula seems to have massive wildfires in it.
The western Carib is locked in a drought with dry air due to El Niño like conditions nothing will form in our area till maybe late in the hurricane season.
If it can't even rain then you won't get a depression.
My two cents and some 😀
Quoting 164. wunderkidcayman:



Yeah it's a bit far out but it's not that far out
It's not in the 300+ hr range but in the 200+ range and it starts up in the early to mid 200hr range so as I said not that far out

Yeah as I've stated we will have to watch it over the next week
(Less than) devastating earthquake in the UK today. We will rebuild.

Link
Quoting 177. MahFL:



Most people don't realize that 90 % of crop production is still going on in California, they are using ground water and water from reservoirs. Drought just means the areas not irrigated are bone dry.
Also it's raining again in California.

:LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS CALIFORNIA
CITY IN THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY."
There is no "water from reservoirs". And so far as your "it's raining again in California", this:



...ain't gonna do much for this:



I'm afraid we can't wish or deny the drought out of existence, comforting as that would be. But don't take my word for it; here's the USDA:

"The ongoing drought in California is likely to have a major impact on the State’s agricultural production. Long-term moisture deficits across most of the State remain at near-record levels. Because California is a major producer in the fruit, vegetable, tree nut, and dairy sectors, the drought has potential implications for U.S. supplies and prices of affected products this year and beyond."
Not only do those invests look pretty good, GFS is predicting another system 200 hours out..

GEM 168 hours out.. Jeez..

Quoting 177. MahFL:



Most people don't realize that 90 % of crop production is still going on in California, they are using ground water and water from reservoirs. Drought just means the areas not irrigated are bone dry.
Also it's raining again in California.

:LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS CALIFORNIA
CITY IN THE SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEY."


Yep, they're still growing the almonds. 80% of the world almond crop is grown in California, with China importing 70% of that, about 100,000 tons. Each almond needs a gallon of water. Effectively, more water is being exported to China from California, in the shape of almonds, than Californians use in their houses.
We just had our first thunder storm of the year .... a month early, there is still ice in the big lakes !    Fire hazard has been extreme since before the snow was all gone .... fortunately, last night's storm had some rain (often they are just dry lightning storms) so we can hope that it didn't start the fire season off already.Shaping up to be another hot, dry summer in the North.
Very high sea surface anomalies surfacing across Nino 3 east across Nino 1&2. This is basically the "kiss of death" to the Atlantic Hurricane Season as all the deep convection gets focused across the E-Pac.

Quoting 182. Neapolitan:

There is no "water from reservoirs". And so far as your "it's raining again in California", this:

.72" at my house over the last 6 days. Another .48" forecast for the next 3 days. Not a drought-buster, obviously, but not insignificant.
we now have 90E


EP, 90, 2015052212, , BEST, 0, 60N, 1355W, 25, 1008, DB
Quoting 187. StormTrackerScott:

Very high sea surface anomalies surfacing across Nino 3 east across Nino 1&2. This is basically the "kiss of death" to the Atlantic Hurricane Season as all the deep convection gets focused across the E-Pac.




Scott not only El Nino will cause high shear over the main development region of the Atlantic but the Saharan Air
Layer which has been persistent over the last several years has been the grim reaper for Atlantic tropical cyclones. Scott even the last 2 years where conditions in the Atlantic were supposed more favorable for development for tropical systems the SAL took its sickle and cut the tropical cyclones from the top to the bottom. I agree the El Nino is one part of it, the cold AMO is another and the SAL is the grim reaper. Scott these points being said, I believe close to home storms for us in Florida maybe in afew weeks. Call me lets set up a time to chase and track together. Thank you
Chase a Hurricane,


Never had too, as we just wait a spell here and one will come along been my sperience.




10:20 in the AM and it's 65 degrees, a little sticky from yesterday, but I'll takes it. Not making it out of the 70's today. We should be drying out this weekend at least.

ColoradoBob1 great post on Alaska I have friends up there in the central region around Fairbanks and they say they are sweltering around 80 degrees!!. I have family in Connecticut and it was 33 last night!! Scott you are going to say El Nino but I think its the anomalous Jetstream and a warming world. I brought up magnetic pole anomaly last time. But that is a different argument for a different day
Yet another Antarctic ice mass is becoming destabilized, scientists report


The troubling news continues this week for the Antarctic peninsula region, which juts out from the icy continent.

Last week, scientists documented threats to the Larsen C and the remainder of the Larsen B ice shelf (most of which collapsed in 2002). The remnant of Larsen B, NASA researchers said, may not last past 2020. And as for Larsen C, the Scotland-sized ice shelf could also be at potentially “imminent risk” due to a rift across its mass that is growing in size (though it appears more stable than the remainder of Larsen B).

And the staccato of May melt news isn’t over, it seems. Thursday in Science, researchers from the University of Bristol in Britain, along with researchers from Germany, France and the Netherlands, reported on the retreat of a suite of glaciers farther south from Larsen B and C along the Bellingshausen Sea, in a region known as the Southern Antarctic Peninsula. (For a helpful map of the region, see here.)

Using satellite based and gravity measurements, the research team found that “a major portion of the region has, since 2009, destabilized” and accounts for “a major fraction of Antarctica’s contribution to rising sea level.”

The likely cause of the change, they say, is warmer waters reaching the base of mostly submerged ice shelves that hold back larger glaciers — melting them from below.

This has been a common theme in Antarctica recently — a similar mechanism has been postulated for melting of ice shelves in nearby West Antarctica (which contains vastly more ice, and more potential sea level rise, than does the Antarctic peninsula).

“This is one of now three really quite substantial signals that we’ve seen from different parts of West Antarctica and the Antarctic peninsula that is all going in the same way,” said Jonathan Bamber of the University of Bristol, one of the paper’s authors. The other two are the losses of ice in the Larsen ice shelf region — where glaciers have sped up their seaward lurches following past ice shelf collapses — and in West Antarctica.


What’s particularly notable about the new study is the apparent rapid onset of the change. The researchers say the region is now losing on the order of 56 gigatons of ice per year — a gigaton is a billion metric tons — and that there appears to have been “a remarkable rate of acceleration in dynamic mass loss since about 2009 that must have been near-simultaneous across multiple basins and glaciers.”

Indeed, the paper suggests these southern Antarctic peninsula glaciers may have only begun their retreat. The glaciers may now be unstable, says the paper, because some of their ice shelves currently rest on bedrock that is not only below sea level, but slopes further downhill as one moves inland.

To understand the problem here, it’s important to visualize what scientists call the ice shelf’s “grounding line” – the area where the ice mass simultaneously intersects with the bedrock below it and also the ocean in front of it. “The geometry of the bedrock … it’s below sea level and it dips inland” in this region, explains Bamber. “That geometry means that the grounding line is potentially unstable.”

“It only needs to change position slightly for it to move quite rapidly, and for a sustained period, further inland,” Bamber continues. “That’s the theory behind the instability of these sectors of West Antarctica and the peninsula.”

That’s also one reason why the paper concludes that “these processes have resulted in the destabilization of the inland ice, resulting in a large and sustained mass loss to the ocean.”

So how much sea level rise could be in store – and how fast?

The paper concludes that currently, this part of Antarctica is contributing around .16 millimeters to sea level rise each year, out of a global total that has been recently estimated at about 2.6 to 2.9 millimeters annually. However, in terms of Antarctica’s contribution to the total, .16 millimeters is quite a lot; the new study calls it “a major fraction of Antarctica’s total oceanic contribution.”

The total sea level rise each year is made up of contributions not only from Antarctica, but also from Greenland, polar ice around the world, and also the thermal expansion of sea water (as water warms, its volume increases).

According to Jonathan Bamber, the region contains the potential for a significant contribution to sea level rise – on the order of 20 centimeters for a loss of the entire sector’s ice. This would not unfold immediately – it would play out over “multiple decades to centuries,” he says. But it could contribute meaningfully to total sea level rise in this century.

The greater Antarctic worry remains the ice shelves and glaciers in other regions, West Antarctica and East Antarctica, whose potential contribution to sea level rise is measured in feet or meters, not centimeters or inches. Still, the broad picture is that we’re now seeing consistent — and worrying — changes in many different regions on the fringes of the vast frozen continent.


anyone familiar with wordpress in blogging?
Quoting 147. nonblanche:



If the scale is right (are those long straight things pine needles?) it's a tiny kind of snake, about twice the size of a large earthworm, the eyes are almost vestigal, and they eat grubs and worms. I forget what they're called, but we had 'em under rocks and such in Southeastern PA. Neat little guys, the ones we had in PA were brownish.
well looked it up and its a Lizard worm..only lives in central florida..truly a lizard..and lives underground
Quoting 195. WeatherConvoy:

anyone familiar with wordpress in blogging?



I used it years ago, but prefer blogger.
Strato Cum at 10N going into late May. Unheard of and this just gives the indication of how stable the Atlantic is right now. One plume of dust moving thru the Caribbean now and another stronger plume about to exit Africa.



Only in FL

Sun SentinelVerified account
‏@SunSentinel
Rescue underway for naked man on top of raised railroad bridge in Fort Lauderdale http://sunsent.nl/1FHQeKH
200. vis0
If the text below looks unprofessional , i'm posting in a manner that shows no html nor icons so have fun in trying to read the words of they are not formatted correctly.
Getting that dreaded re-validate button every 3-5 days (here a capture of that validate me button http://youtu.be/67KsFlKB2vY) so i post this using stealth methods (i have my hand over my eyes YOU CAN'T SEE ME!!!...OUCH who put that wall there?! was going to post some "ocean generated" lightning VID i captured off Puerto Rico's NW coast but the revalidate button thing got me upset enough that i'll "play the same game" and keep that on my private FB account...panoramic and 2 hours worth. to see me walking around NYC and seeing a breeze follow me remember i'll be posting those on my WxRetro-youtube site in case i can't post here anymore (the first is 258 MB so imagine how long it'll take to upoloasd at 56K....stop counting with yer toes Taz...24 hrs might be up next week titles will include "tree breeze ###".
Here that Swirl in the ePac that looks like a TS, it was posted last week on my blog since severe was happening)
CREDIT:: Colour IR - NOAA through University of Washington
B&W IR - aviation.gov
D&T:: on mp4
IMAGERY TYPE:: IR (Colour & B&W)
SUBJECT:: Alpha? (the name 'id given it). That swirling Low that sure seemed closed. i was sure TwCh was going to name it "echo" being it was in the vast open Pacific ------Pacific------------Pacific or for sure a true < storm.
NOTE::For location references in the colour IR the Northern most LATITUDE LINE IS 20°S while the LONGITUDE LINE that intersects the "2" in 2015 that identifies the frame date & time, is LONGITUDE LINE 110°. In the B&W imagery AT ITS beginning you can see the LONGITUDE NUMBERS and those numbers are placed along the Equator(s) and each LATITUDE LINE is of 10 southward degrees. When the cyan circle shows up the swirling remnants is between 10 & 20 degrees of the Southern Hemisphere.
http://youtu.be/jGpC-IhIX8k(org1010x652 @600x384)




Great blog entry, Dr. Masters. I shot this time-lapse video of the same April 20, 2015 thunderstorm over Washington, DC featured in the photo you posted: http://youtu.be/FMp6KJ0b-Qo. It was a spectacular light show.
Quoting 201. Wernerdad:

Great blog entry, Dr. Masters. I shot this time-lapse video of the same April 20, 2015 thunderstorm over Washington, DC featured in the photo you posted: http://youtu.be/FMp6KJ0b-Qo. It was a spectacular light show.


Since i just learned how to do this:


View on YouTube
Quoting 200. vis0:

If the text below looks unprofessional , i'm posting in a manner that shows no html nor icons so have fun in trying to read the words of they are not formatted correctly.
Getting that dreaded re-validate button every 3-5 days (here a capture of that validate me button http://youtu.be/67KsFlKB2vY) so i post this using stealth methods (i have my hand over my eyes YOU CAN'T SEE ME!!!...OUCH who put that wall there?! was going to post some "ocean generated" lightning VID i captured off Puerto Rico's NW coast but the revalidate button thing got me upset enough that i'll "play the same game" and keep that on my private FB account...panoramic and 2 hours worth. to see me walking around NYC and seeing a breeze follow me remember i'll be posting those on my WxRetro-youtube site in case i can't post here anymore (the first is 258 MB so imagine how long it'll take to upoloasd at 56K....stop counting with yer toes Taz...24 hrs might be up next week titles will include "tree breeze ###".
Here that Swirl in the ePac that looks like a TS, it was posted last week on my blog since severe was happening)
CREDIT:: Colour IR - NOAA through University of Washington
B&W IR - aviation.gov
D&T:: on mp4
IMAGERY TYPE:: IR (Colour & B&W)
SUBJECT:: Alpha? (the name 'id given it). That swirling Low that sure seemed closed. i was sure TwCh was going to name it "echo" being it was in the vast open Pacific ------Pacific------------Pacific or for sure a true < storm.
NOTE::For location references in the colour IR the Northern most LATITUDE LINE IS 20°S while the LONGITUDE LINE that intersects the "2" in 2015 that identifies the frame date & time, is LONGITUDE LINE 110°. In the B&W imagery AT ITS beginning you can see the LONGITUDE NUMBERS and those numbers are placed along the Equator(s) and each LATITUDE LINE is of 10 southward degrees. When the cyan circle shows up the swirling remnants is between 10 & 20 degrees of the Southern Hemisphere.
http://youtu.be/jGpC-IhIX8k(org1010x652 @600x384)








What are you talking about why do you oh have me in. Your sentences keep me out of It
Quoting 199. StormTrackerScott:

Only in FL

Sun SentinelVerified account
‏@SunSentinel
Rescue underway for naked man on top of raised railroad bridge in Fort Lauderdale http://sunsent.nl/1FHQeKH
LOL geez
Quoting 199. StormTrackerScott:

Only in FL

Sun SentinelVerified account
‏@SunSentinel
Rescue underway for naked man on top of raised railroad bridge in Fort Lauderdale http://sunsent.nl/1FHQeKH


What is with Florida and mentally ill naked people, I just saw a man walking naked on the sidewalk with a towel over his shoulder around 11 PM last night. He must have been drunk or high or both because the mosquitoes are really bad here right now after heavy rains last week.
Quoting 199. StormTrackerScott:

Only in FL

Sun SentinelVerified account
%u200F@SunSentinel
Rescue underway for naked man on top of raised railroad bridge in Fort Lauderdale http://sunsent.nl/1FHQeKH


The site is down currently, but http://www.reddit.com/r/floridaman

edit: up and running now
Quoting 166. tampabaymatt:




Some areas in Texas and Oklahoma are approaching yearly average rainfall totals...

Although as is usual, the WPC over does the widespread coverage of heavy rain, it's likely some places will see locally much higher than 4-5 inches, but many places will get much less. That whole area won't see that much rain, that's not how thunderstorm rainfall totals work thanks to the nature of physics responsible for the process of convection.

Convection is mixing, i.e. rising in some areas and sinking in others, and it still surprises me that we use this widespread bulls eye depiction of rainfall totals with convection precip.
Also this method tends to most poorly represent sea breeze activity, some areas will get way less than 0.50-1.0 inch, while others will get 2-4 inches or more.

I realize models can't properly forecast where the heaviest rain will setup, but it could be represented with an average better.
from weather nation ready site.............................................. ...............Twisted Tornado Myths - Exposed!


Date Posted: February 24, 2015


When it comes to tornado safety, there are a lot of myths out there. These myths are more than just incorrect - these popular misconceptions can lead people into danger. Learn the truth about tornadoes and what you can do to stay safe.

Is it safe to seek shelter under a bridge or an overpass during a tornado?


NO! Bridges and overpasses are not safe shelters from tornadoes. The structures may enhance the winds and blast flying debris into and under the structure, and into you! A strong tornado may even cause the bridge or overpass to collapse on top of you. If you're driving and encounter a tornado moving toward you, your best option is to drive in the opposite direction and attempt to get out of its path.

Do tornadoes avoid big cities?

NO! Many cities, including Fort Worth, Dallas, Atlanta, and St. Louis have been struck by tornadoes. However, cities are hit by tornadoes much less frequently than less populated areas. This isn’t because tornadoes have an aversion to big cities, but more likely because there just aren’t that many big cities that happen to be in the path of a tornado. When you compare the area of the U.S. covered by cities to the area that is not, you will find that there is much more open space, especially in tornado alley. This means that cities make for a relatively small target for a tornado to hit.

Can tornadoes cross hills, rivers or other geographic features?

YES! While it’s possible terrain can influence tornado formation, and may play some role in supporting where tornadoes track, there is no evidence suggesting tornadoes cannot cross hills, rivers, or river valleys. Valleys and mountains do not appear to offer any significant protection once a tornado develops and its track becomes established. The fact that a particular location has avoided being struck by a tornado has more to do with luck than the terrain surrounding that location.

Should I open the windows on my house before a tornado hits?

NO! Opening windows in your home to relieve the pressure changes in a tornado is useless and a waste of precious time. If a tornado hits your house, it most likely will break windows anyway. Stay away from windows during a tornado and get to as low a place as possible.

Can you always see a tornado before it strikes?

NO! Tornadoes do not always have to appear as a visible funnel cloud and can be hidden by heavy rainfall during the day or by darkness at night. Sometimes tornadoes are so wide that you may not realize what you're seeing until it's too late. Over the years, there have been numerous reports of tornadoes that are nearly a mile wide.

If I can see a tornado and it is not coming directly at me, does that mean I am safe?

NO! It can be difficult to to determine the movement of the tornado and its distance from you. Also, tornadoes can toss items it may pick up (tree limbs, bricks, personal belongings, etc.) hundreds of yards away from the actual funnel. Even if you’re not in the direct path of the tornado, you may be in an area where falling debris can cause damage, injury or even death. Always seek shelter in a sturdy building, on the lowest level, away from windows when a tornado is nearby.
Quoting 205. Jedkins01:



What is with Florida and mentally ill naked people, I just saw a man walking naked on the sidewalk with a towel over his shoulder around 11 PM last night. He must have been drunk or high or both because the mosquitoes are really bad here right now after heavy rains last week.
LOL several years ago I was walking my dogs in taylor park and there was this drunk guy, jogging naked lol....don't know whats up with that at all.....
CoCoRaHS site was updated when I looked this morning and we got .40 from the storm on:
05/15/2015 0.28
05/16/2015 0.12
Nothing so far today, The low is NNE of here and the rain hasn't arrived here yet.
Quoting 169. wunderkidcayman:



Btw talking about El nino

Currently 3.4 values have been the lowest since early April



Also Caribbean is starting to catch up


Because the warm water moves from east to west then it should warm up again.
Quoting 189. Tazmanian:

we now have 90E


EP, 90, 2015052212, , BEST, 0, 60N, 1355W, 25, 1008, DB
Issued by The National Weather Service
New York City, NY
Fri, May 22, 4:30 am EDT
... ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ALONG WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 30 PERCENT. THE COMBINATION OF THE PERSISTENTLY DRY CONDITIONS... GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE GROWTH AND SPREAD OF ANY FIRES THAT COULD DEVELOP.
Quoting 216. Gearsts:


That shows how warm the SST is getting in the GOM and all around Florida.

You know where the potential is for tropical storms to form this season.
Quoting 195. WeatherConvoy:

anyone familiar with wordpress in blogging?

mail me...
12Z GFS..righthand lower corner sunday after next.............................................. ...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
222. JRRP
Thanks for the lightning discussion. Water is amazing stuff. The convective cloud process, if rapid enough, condenses (due to electrostatic attraction of water molecules) such a gigantic mass of water vapor (a million tons) in so short a time (minutes) that this gas (high energy)-to-liquid (low energy) phase change releases a broad spectrum of radiation, from heat through light via sparks. Further input to the thunderstorm energy process may be via sprite energy from the ionosphere (Bernie Vonnegut). Florida is the Lightning King, and with all those hot summer thunderstorms with no hail...just torrential downpours, I question the role of further phase change in water, from gas to ice in the lightning process. While there is much electrostatic activity in H2O molecule rearrangement as it crystallizes, it is likely trivial relative to the gas-liquid phase change action. Caloric heat energy for water's gas-liquid phase change is 580 cal/gm, while the additional liquid-frozen caloric heat energy is only 80 cal/gm...maybe 1/7th the low frequency heat energy is not relevant when dealing with electrostatic discharge - maybe that crystallization high frequency energy is the main kicker for lightning...I suppose it doesn't hurt...but Florida gets lots and lots of lightning in the steamy summer...while it is quite warm aloft. I think it is the rapid intensification of condensation in strengthening updraft convection that is the main player.
In addition - it seems the thunder discharge, a low frequency sonic/subsonic rumble through the air, aids in the coalescence of droplets. Is it not uncanny how the thunderous report is often followed, immediately, by heavier, more intense rainfall?
224. vis0
QUOTE BLOG:: Lightning jumps can’t tell us exactly what kind of severe weather a storm will produce, and not every lightning jump will lead to a severe outcome.

Vis0...uh toots his horn:: ...unless you add a detector to learn how the sound when graphed as an angle will give you what type of storm and at least a ~2-4+ min window for tornadoes, as i wrote on my blog yrs ago that in reading the angle of deep sounds from storms this will help one figure an alert for warning system up to 5 mins before they happen Now sadly the angles of the horns used in tornado warning systems can raise the opportunity for certain mental problems (no joke) due to how the low sounds are forced to come out of those horns "speaker", of course since the horns are needed being affected by that sound is the least of troubles when an F2+ is coming down the road, i just was hoping that the way the horn was shaped and not made of one piece could be changed (as i drew then) similar to how i stated on my blogs (both blogbytes i have deleted from public view, still on WxU server i figure) how the modern military helmets to sports helmets (specifically where much loud sounds or contact is made) has to be made so that the thickness of the helmet does not surpass a level below 4 fold or above 6 fold (preferably 5 fold) as to the helmets area, now since helmets have a large surface area that means one needs to make the helmet in parts while still maintaining their needed strength to survive explosive forces. With today's technology i think that is possible even made 2 helmets in 2001 and was hoping to send it to the military but after calling Washington 3 times and being told i cannot help them since i have no degree or expertise i threw the helmets into a central park pond, jad similar experience with NFL.

Remember i no longer pass on specifics (be literally or via CLUEs) to my knowledge so try to figure how be reading the few numbers i still post. The above ratios can help immensely, be it Reading nature "sounds" or creating a protective helmets that doers not transfer chaotic sound's resonances into the brain leading to all sorts of ADD and/or depressions.

hey look i can post, so its seems 2 days i'm blocked by that auto-bot re-validate your eMail button, and for 4 days i can post freely, i can do that.
225. vis0

Quoting 102. StAugustineFL:

I don't hide comments/ignore anyone and not directing my comment towards anyone. I've seen it time and time again from many and for those who aren't on the blog all day/every day it would be nice to witness what the obs were at the time of posting.
THE FOLLOWING IS NOT ENDORSED BY WXU or any of its employees.

Here are some capture programs:(not all 50+ i've used : - P just a few)
FIRST & FOREMOST i highly recommend that one FIRST CAPTURE with this freeware SCREENCAPTURE PRO by TRACTION SOFTWARE.UK, all THE Inteface's DEFAULT SETTINGS ON any program one is going to try in case you forget them and therefore can use the captured images of the programs interface to set the settings back to default IF THE PROGRAM HAS NO across the board default setting. This program as a ticking timer that might be annoying to some it can be adjusted or turned off PER USE as in its freeware version it has to be set every time its opened.


These are all freeware though some sites ask you register so they have some knowledge that their freeware is being used/liked.
Want to quickly capture into a VIDEO format (depending on codecs installed, it does not install any just creates a drop down list of the ones you have installed and you choose which to use) try VIDSHOT CAPTURER by GEOVID REMEMBER in being free many of these programs have less features as not warning you that if you do not change the title a previous capture will be overwritten without the expected "OVERWITE?" warning.


Another capture to VID program is CapturePad free CapturePad by VRTAINMENT as the aforementioned program it also does not install any codecs just uses the ones you have installed. Being freeware it resets the settings every time its closed so it takes some of your time when opening it for you have to set the desired codec, size , settings, hence it has a version you buy that has more features and saves ones settings...stop hooting & hollering barbamz.


Screencast-O-Matic


FRAPS2 versions free and registered, latter has more features. CAPuchino annyone?


DuckCapture more for web pages including scrolling webpages, if it becomes stuck on a scrolling capture HOVER (do not click on page) cursor from side to side and stopping for a micro second as one moves cursor in the other direction, this activates what some scroll capturing programs use to keep scrolling & capturing a page.

Hypercam can do what clean camstudio did. Hypersnap is the pay more feature full version. They also have some other neat stuff like a free mathematical expressions calculator




NOT::

Camstudio, i'm no longer linking as it seems there is a hijacked version that adds lots of viruses and/or hijacks ones browser and is hard to remove.The version at sourceforrge at least asks pone if one wants crap on their compu'r but i'd still NOT use it.
PLEASE READ ANY COMMENTS that say so as on yahoo help or even on
sourseforges comments under camstudio, The versions of 2.5 was okay but
who knows now ,so if you have the v2.5 installed before 2014 it should be okay but to get that version now IF you really need it, be careful, i'd NOT get it.
226. vis0

Quoting 203. Tazmanian:




What are you talking about why do you oh have me in. Your sentences keep me out of It
once in a while i use wxu members names as a cartoonist uses a caricature to add humor to what they draw so i wxu member usernames to add, if i may use the words "the touch of a colour commentator". Since you prefer not to have your name used so be it.
Took me some time to get here but I'm finally back though under a new User Name. Pleasant good evening to everyone from beautiful Antigua (and Barbuda). It's very quiet in my neck of the woods. The days are extremely hot and the nights rather cool. Just got some passing showers but nothing to touch the water table. We need rain and lots of it. Our dams and other water catchments are pretty low. Hurricane season is just around the corner...heads up everyone.