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Wettest year on record in Philadelphia; 2011 sets record for wet/dry extremes in U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:00 PM GMT on December 12, 2011

This year is now the wettest year in nearly 200 years of record keeping in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. A large, wet low pressure system soaked the Northeast U.S. on Wednesday and early Thursday, bringing 2.31 inches of rain to the City of Brotherly Love, bringing this year's precipitation total in Philly to 62.26 inches. This breaks the old yearly precipitation record of 61.20 inches, set in 1867. In a normal year, Philadelphia receives about 40 inches. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, this is one of the most difficult U.S. city records to break, since rainfall records in Philadelphia go back to 1820. The only other sites with a longer continuous precipitation record in the U.S. are Charleston, SC (1738 -) and New Bedford, MA (1816 -).


Figure 1. Departure of precipitation from average for 2011, as of December 6, 2011. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

20+ inches above average precipitation in Ohio Valley, Northeast
Philadelphia is not alone in setting a wettest year in recorded history mark in 2011. Over a dozen major cities in the Ohio Valley and Northeast have set a new wettest year record, or are close to doing so. Thanks to rains associated with this year's tremendous tornado outbreaks in April in May, plus exceptionally heavy summer thunderstorm rains, combined with rains from Tropical Storm Lee and Hurricane Irene, portions of at least twelve states have seen rains more than twenty inches above average during 2011.



The fraction of the country covered by extremely wet conditions (top 10% historically) was 32% during the period January through November, ranking as the 2nd highest such coverage in the past 100 years. And if you weren't washing away in a flood, you were baking in a drought in 2011--portions of sixteen states had precipitation more than twenty inches below average (Figure 1.) The fraction of the country covered by extremely dry conditions (top 10% historically) was 22% during the period January through November, ranking as the 8th highest in the past 100 years. The combined fraction of the country experiencing either severe drought or extremely wet conditions was 56% averaged over the January - November period--the highest in a century of record keeping. Climate change science predicts that if the Earth continues to warm as expected, wet areas will tend to get wetter, and dry areas will tend to get drier--so this year's side-by-side extremes of very wet and very dry conditions should grow increasingly common in the coming decades.


Figure 2. Percentage of the contiguous U.S. either in severe or greater drought (top 10% dryness) or extremely wet (top 10% wetness) during the period January - November, as computed using NOAA's Climate Extremes Index. Remarkably, more than half of the country (56%) experienced either a top-ten driest or top-ten wettest year, a new record. Image credit: NOAA/NCDC.

Unofficial state yearly precipitation record set in Ohio
The Wilmington, Ohio NWS office announced last week that three stations in Southwest Ohio had unofficially broken the 140-year old state yearly precipitation record. Cheviot, Miamitown, and Fernbank have recorded 73.81", 71.89", and 70.85", respectively so far in 2011, beating the old record of 70.82" set at Little Mountain in 1870. According to wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt, the old record should be 72.08” at Mt. Healthy, Ohio in 1880.

Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt summarizes the global weather extremes in November in his latest post.

Jeff Masters

Extreme Weather Drought Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr.Masters.
"...[R]ainfall records in Philadelphia go back to 1820."

Incredible. As is the prominent green spike at the right side of the graph. "...[M]ore than half of the country (56%) experienced either a top-ten driest or top-ten wettest year [in 2011], a new record." If that's not the textbook definition of increasing extremes, I don't know what is...

Thank you, Dr. Masters.
This is a great example of something that should be yet another warning of the dangers of global warming. On the other hand, if you take the decreased rainfall from drought areas, and combine it with the increased rainfall in the wet areas, you could say that the average precipitation for the entire US was fairly normal, and I expect that's what some will do.
"Climate change science predicts
that if the Earth continues to warm as expected, wet areas will tend to
get wetter, and dry areas will tend to get drier--so this year's
side-by-side extremes of very wet and very dry conditions should grow
increasingly common in the coming decades."


Ugh. ! Maybe they'll switch places every once in a while. :-)

Newark, NJ had more rain then S.W.Florida has in an average year. Which is saying a lot considering they have one heck of a rainy season.
Wait'll 2012
Look at Vero Beach, FL. Very rainy year here in FL as well at least across C and S FL.

...THE VERO BEACH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 11 2011...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1942 TO 2011


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
................................................. .................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 77 1025 AM 86 1997 75 2 73
1986
MINIMUM 68 324 AM 32 1981 56 12 52
AVERAGE 73 65 8 63

PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.25 1.25 1969 0.06 0.19 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 3.37 0.79 2.58 0.05
SINCE DEC 1 3.37 0.79 2.58 0.05
SINCE JAN 1 63.21
Normal 50.47

Departure from Normal 12.74 Last Year 36.53



Quoting kinase1:
This is a great example of something that should be yet another warning of the dangers of global warming. On the other hand, if you take the decreased rainfall from drought areas, and combine it with the increased rainfall in the wet areas, you could say that the average precipitation for the entire US was fairly normal, and I expect that's what some will do.

More than likely, yes. Though that would be a hugely false equivalence, of course. It would be like claiming that while the Green Bay Packers are 13-0, the Indianapolis Colts are 0-13, so the average standing between them is thus 6.5-6.5, meaning there's no difference between the two teams. Though that won't stop "skeptics" from trying...
Thanks Jeff...
Quoting Neapolitan:

More than likely, yes. Though that would be a hugely false equivalence, of course. It would be like claiming that while the Green Bay Packers are 13-0, the Indianapolis Colts are 0-13, so the average standing between them is thus 6.5-6.5, meaning there's no difference between the two teams.


But you can go on and on about these things. Both teams play football, you win some, you lose some, nature's way is it's wet some and dry some, so technically everything is balancing itself out.... can't have your cake and eat it too all the time. It's gotta be opposite somewhere in nature, and same thing in football, gotta have winners and gotta have loosers
Well...it's sorta better...kinda.. :-)



Quoting StormTracker2K:
Look at Vero Beach, FL. Very rainy year here in FL as well at least across C and S FL.

...THE VERO BEACH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 11 2011...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1942 TO 2011


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
................................................. .................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 77 1025 AM 86 1997 75 2 73
1986
MINIMUM 68 324 AM 32 1981 56 12 52
AVERAGE 73 65 8 63

PRECIPITATION (IN)
YESTERDAY 0.25 1.25 1969 0.06 0.19 0.00
MONTH TO DATE 3.37 0.79 2.58 0.05
SINCE DEC 1 3.37 0.79 2.58 0.05
SINCE JAN 1 63.21
Normal 50.47

Departure from Normal 12.74 Last Year 36.53




Not true for West Palm Beach, Florida; we are almost 13 inches below average for rainfall.
The bottom line is.....THERE ISN'T SUCH A THING AS AVERAGE. It's a man made system to help understand things. Nature doesn't use this system, it's all about extremes that "Average itself out as a planet"
Quoting hydrus:
Newark, NJ had more rain then S.W.Florida has in an average year. Which is saying a lot considering they have one heck of a rainy season.


Yeah but Look at Fort Myers.

THE FORT MYERS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 12 2011...
VALID AS OF 0700 AM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1902 TO 2011


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR
VALUE (LST) VALUE
.............................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MINIMUM 65 559 AM

PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00 2.00 1902
MONTH TO DATE 0.20
SINCE DEC 1 0.20
SINCE JAN 1 65.61
Thanks Jeff
Yin / Yang...

Or... could have both...
Like we did in SE LA, long-term drought interrupted by periodic flood. The oddest was watching the record MS River flood in May-June pass thru our confined-by-levees tributaries out into the Gulf, while our soils remained parched from drought, no local rain in sight - what a waste! ... YTD deficits reaching 18-20" by June's end, then have our 3rd wettest July (17-18") in what averages our wettest month (7.85" mean) of any given year... back to abnormally dry August (typically 2nd wettest)... Then start September with several days of flooding 11-12.5" rains from TS Lee - the only significant rains of the month as immediately returned to abnormally dry conditions after... and saw cooler Fall temps arrive early this year with both Sep-Oct avg much cooler than normal...

At last check, my local YTD rain tally running over 10" deficit...
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah but Look at Fort Myers.

THE FORT MYERS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR DECEMBER 12 2011...
VALID AS OF 0700 AM LOCAL TIME.

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1902 TO 2011


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR
VALUE (LST) VALUE
.............................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
MINIMUM 65 559 AM

PRECIPITATION (IN)
TODAY 0.00 2.00 1902
MONTH TO DATE 0.20
SINCE DEC 1 0.20
SINCE JAN 1 65.61
Great post, but I dont see your point. That Fort Myers had almost as much rain as Newark?
I forsee major hurricane/tropical activity to pick up along the Gulf coast. Nature's way of making up for the lack of rain that is plaguing the region. In fact I expect numbers to be above AVERAGE for rainfall at some point in the future.

I don't really like to think of this period of climate change we're experiencing as "global warming," specifically as that incorrectly describes the processes that are occurring. As mankind affects the mechanisms that regulate the climate on Earth, our planet will go through many "mood swings" as she tries to adjust to our being here. We will (and have) experience(ed) a wide array of climate extremes as the Earth adjusts...

Quoting RitaEvac:


But you can go on and on about these things. Both teams play football, you win some, you lose some, nature's way is it's wet some and dry some, so technically everything is balancing itself out.... can't have your cake and eat it too all the time. It's gotta be opposite somewhere in nature, and same thing in football, gotta have winners and gotta have loosers

This is true. But climate change theory has long predicted increasing extremes, and, as Dr. Masters has again pointed out, that's what's happening. And at any rate, those doing what kinase1 spoke of--averaging extremes to "prove" those extremes don't exist--are engaging in unfair play.

Consider this: suppose your location's average high for the year used to be 70, and the average low for the year used to be 40. The overall average temp, then, was 55. Now suppose that average high has increased to 100, and the average low has dropped to 10. The overall average temperature is still 55--but would it be anywhere near fair to claim that the climate hasn't changed?
Quoting Neapolitan:

This is true. But climate change theory has long predicted increasing extremes, and, as Dr. Masters has again pointed out, that's what's happening. And at any rate, those doing what kinase1 spoke of--averaging extremes to "prove" those extremes don't exist--are engaging in unfair play.

Consider this: suppose your location's average high for the year used to be 70, and the average low for the year used to be 40. The overall average temp, then, was 55. Now suppose that average high has increased to 100, and the average low has dropped to 10. The overall average temperature is still 55--but would it be anywhere near fair to claim that the climate hasn't changed?


Means the system were using is flawed.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I forsee major hurricane activity to pick up along the Gulf coast. Nature's way of making up for the lack of rain that is plaguing the region. In fact I expect numbers to be above AVERAGE for rainfall at some point in the future.



Its quite easy to see where the jet stream was set up the majority of the summer.
Speaking of extremes, and it was hard to find this among all the other flooding storms of late, but remember this one?


U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey

Floods in Southeast Texas,
October 1994

Rainfall in southeast Texas, which
ranged in amounts from about 8 to more
than 28 inches during October 15–19,
1994, caused severe flooding in parts of a
38-county area. A combination of meteorological
events—residual atmospheric
moisture over southern Texas associated
with Hurricane Rosa from the Pacific
Coast of Mexico and low-level moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico drawn inland to
a warm front by a strong low-pressure
system over the southern Rocky Mountains—
spawned vigorous thunderstorms
that produced rainfall amounts that may
exceed records for the area.

Flooding was most severe in the San
Jacinto River Basin along the West and
East Forks of the San Jacinto River and
along Spring Creek; in the Trinity River
Basin near Lake Livingston and along
several tributaries to the lake; and in the
Lavaca River Basin. Flooding was also
severe in several coastal basins, notably
Cedar and Pine Island Bayous. Many of
the resulting peak stages (maximum
water-surface elevation above a datum)
and streamflows exceeded all observed
historical values.
Quoting hydrus:
Great post, but I dont see your point. That Fort Myers had almost as much rain as Newark?


Yeah your right as I just went back and looked at Newark's total. Also according to the models a lot more will be on the way for the NE US. Heck the way were going the NE US may have a snow less winter.
why is it i al always, ALWAYS the last person here!? geez, lol. maybe i am slow with the keyboard, idk xD
962mb 12UTC
And, since the previous records would also be classified as extreme, something we did simply must have caused those, too.

Wiki:
1878: The electric light bulb was first patented in England by 1878 by Joseph Swan after having experimented since about 1850. Thomas Edison in the U.S. was working on improving the bulb patented by Swan and was granted a U.S. patent in 1879.

Ahh, that explains it perfectly. The light bulb did it.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah your right as I just went back and looked at Newark's total. Also according to the models a lot more will be on the way for the NE US. Heck the way were going the NE US may have a snow less winter.

StormTracker2k, I live in Zephyrhills FL and i have had 62.58 inches so far this year. Been dry the last 2 months .24 in oct and .33 in nov.and .006 so far this month.
Panama area keeps under lots of precipitaion....


There are now 374 Giorni Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Monday.
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 374 Giorni Days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Monday.


George Noory (my source for all science worth knowing) is covering this in depth
Quoting sunlinepr:
EU economics: Bank collapse rumors keep growing....

Latvia%u2019s largest bank fights off depositor run after rumors of imminent collapse
Posted on December 12, 2011
December 12, 2011 %u2013 LATVIA %u2013 Latvia%u2019s largest bank scrambled Monday to head off a run among depositors who were gripped by rumors of the bank%u2019s imminent ruin. Weekend rumors that Swedbank was facing legal and liquidity problems in Estonia and Sweden sent thousands of Latvians to bank machines on Sunday, with some lines reaching as many as 50 people. Latvians are particularly sensitive to speculation about banks%u2019 health.



Link


Apparently that's not the only one - reports that Commerzbank in Germany is in trouble (may need propping up). World and economy has gone crazy.

Quoting RitaEvac:
I forsee major hurricane/tropical activity to pick up along the Gulf coast. Nature's way of making up for the lack of rain that is plaguing the region. In fact I expect numbers to be above AVERAGE for rainfall at some point in the future.



Wasn't the fifties quite dry? That didn't have loads of hurricane activity in the Gulf (Audrey was the main one, rest was off the East Coast and Caribbean).
Hi Jeff,

Good map, but perhaps a second map of precipitation excesses and droughts should be included: one showing the PERCENTAGE departures from average precipitation. I say this because many parts of the southwest NEVER get 20 inches of precipitation a year, and so, can't receive 20 inches less than normal. For many locations, five inches below average are extreme drought conditions.
Go ohio go ohio woot woot woot!
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yeah your right as I just went back and looked at Newark's total. Also according to the models a lot more will be on the way for the NE US. Heck the way were going the NE US may have a snow less winter.
This will be a strange winter.
OK...This is definitely weather related: I just found out I DO NOT have to go to Cleveland for business Thursday thru Sunday....and I simply couldn't be happier about it...Thanks for letting me shre...
NAO may be making a move towards negative, albeit slowly..
“We are now very, very close to the attractor….”

Terence McKenna

We are coming close to a tremendous transformation,

and we are going to see it in our own lives,

something so rare and unique which has never happened before,

and will never happen again.
I live outside of Philly, and boy did we get spanked all year. It's hard to imagine that we got almost 65 inches of precipitation, but I believe it. Earlier in the summer we got a small band of rain, with crazy wind. Outside Philly, in 45 minutes we got 1.50 inches of rain and gusts over 60 mph. That was probably the worst storm,, besides Irene. Can't wait to get away from the rain and go to OBX the week of Christmas!!! Hopefully the weather is better :).
Quoting lubadoob:
Hi Jeff,

Good map, but perhaps a second map of precipitation excesses and droughts should be included: one showing the PERCENTAGE departures from average precipitation. I say this because many parts of the southwest NEVER get 20 inches of precipitation a year, and so, can't receive 20 inches less than normal. For many locations, five inches below average are extreme drought conditions.
Good point.

But, that version of the plot doesn't really seem to shout "extreme". More "persistent pattern", which doesn't well agree with the underlying theme (beyond that of simply reporting the weather and records).

Quoting lubadoob:
Hi Jeff,

Good map, but perhaps a second map of precipitation excesses and droughts should be included: one showing the PERCENTAGE departures from average precipitation. I say this because many parts of the southwest NEVER get 20 inches of precipitation a year, and so, can't receive 20 inches less than normal. For many locations, five inches below average are extreme drought conditions.


True. A third image would have made the post too image-heavy, though.

Jeff
Quoting kinase1:
This is a great example of something that should be yet another warning of the dangers of global warming. On the other hand, if you take the decreased rainfall from drought areas, and combine it with the increased rainfall in the wet areas, you could say that the average precipitation for the entire US was fairly normal, and I expect that's what some will do.



If the Ohio valley had been dry and Texas had been wet, it would be blamed on AGW as well.

Quoting Patrap:
“We are now very, very close to the attractor….”

Terence McKenna

We are coming close to a tremendous transformation,

and we are going to see it in our own lives,

something so rare and unique which has never happened before,

and will never happen again.
TM is the most well-informed man I've ever heard speak. He and I acquire our information from the same source ;)
Mean looking storm developing in the atlantic by scotland, check out sat24.com. Surface map shows it down to 962mb already and developing hurricane force gusts, and another storm at the same intensity for the weekend! Pretty wild weather, even by UK standards..
The precip map proves that cloud seeding in the Sierras and Rockies are not working and, in fact, may be having detrimental effects and should be discontinued. For those of you not familiar with this subject, there are over a million weather modification attempts with silver iodide worldwide each year. See "silver iodide" on Wikipedia. Here's a quote "Approximately 50,000 kg/year are used for this purpose, each seeding experiment consuming 10-50 grams."
Quoting MySecondHandle:
Good point.

But, that version of the plot doesn't really seem to shout "extreme". More "persistent pattern", which doesn't well agree with the underlying theme (beyond that of simply reporting the weather and records).


But Dr. Masters is "...simply reporting the weather and records"; it's not his fault if some choose to ignore that reporting.

At any rate, that's an interesting map. The first thing that occurs to the viewer is that only a very small percentage of the coverage area has seen normal YTD precipitation. The second thing that one notices is that a vast portion of the map has seen YTD precip amounts 75% or less of normal, while other areas have seen YTD amounts at least 125% of normal, and in some cases far more. And perhaps most tellingly, the third thing that stands out is the non-random nature of the anomalies: most of the Southwest, the Southeast, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the West Coast have been dry to very dry, while the Ohio River Valley, the Northeast, and the Northern Great Plains have been wet to very wet. And that non-randomness is a sure sign of a greater pattern change, not just a localized and/or seasonal fluke.

Uh-oh
Is it best to always "Cloud Seed" on the Spring Equinox as well?

TIA.
Quoting FFtrombi:
Mean looking storm developing in the atlantic by scotland, check out sat24.com. Surface map shows it down to 962mb already and developing hurricane force gusts, and another storm at the same intensity for the weekend! Pretty wild weather, even by UK standards..


according to Christopher Burt's blog, a few back, you must have 96mph gusts to be clasified as 'hurricane force gust'. im not proving you right or wrong because you gave no number to the gusts reported, so here is the blog if you aint seen it:D here-



Link to it
Quoting Patrap:
Is it best to always "Cloud Seed" on the Spring Equinox as well?

TIA.


George Noory says anytime is a good time to cloud seed
Quoting SPLbeater:


according to Christopher Burt's blog, a few back, you must have 96mph gusts to be clasified as 'hurricane force gust'. im not proving you right or wrong because you gave no number to the gusts reported, so here is the blog if you aint seen it:D here-



Link to it


Sure, I was just going by Link for the developing hurricane gusts.

Last weeks storm had a recorded gust of 165mph on top of the scottish mountains at cairngorm, only 8mph from the all time strongest gust recorded in the UK. That's serious wind by any measure ;)

(80-100mph gusts at sea level as well)
Quoting FFtrombi:


Sure, I was just going by Link for the developing hurricane gusts.

Last weeks storm had a recorded gust of 165mph on top of the scottish mountains at cairngorm, only 8mph from the all time strongest gust recorded in the UK. That's serious wind by any measure ;)

(80-100mph gusts at sea level as well)


yeah, that last storm was wicked. this one might rival it(maybe)
Quoting SPLbeater:


yeah, that last storm was wicked. this one might rival it(maybe)


This one probably won't be as bad, though I expect it will build to a little stronger than forecast (going by the wicked satellite presentation). The storm on thu-fri might be a whopper though.
Quoting Neapolitan:

But Dr. Masters is "...simply reporting the weather and records"; it's not his fault if some choose to ignore that reporting.

At any rate, that's an interesting map. The first thing that occurs to the viewer is that only a very small percentage of the coverage area has seen normal YTD precipitation. The second thing that one notices is that a vast portion of the map has seen YTD precip amounts 75% or less of normal, while other areas have seen YTD amounts at least 125% of normal, and in some cases far more. And perhaps most tellingly, the third thing that stands out is the non-random nature of the anomalies: most of the Southwest, the Southeast, the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the West Coast have been dry to very dry, while the Ohio River Valley, the Northeast, and the Northern Great Plains have been wet to very wet. And that non-randomness is a sure sign of a greater pattern change, not just a localized and/or seasonal fluke.



Something else that may be worth noting is that semidesert regions that receive 50% of their normal rainfall will be pushed towards becoming desert lands themselves. This would push their surrounding areas into becoming more semidesert, in the nature of their climate. History has taught us, in the U.S., that we do not fair well in desert conditions.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
3:00 AM JST December 13 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.6N 112.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 8.9N 110.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Lots of clouds, mid level soup deck all over the south
If it was hurricane season I'd think something was spinning up down near Panama
Rain continues to pour into E C FL. Daytona Beach international over 3" to Melbourne International with over 2.5" and Jensen Beach with near 8". December average is only 2.4". Lots of deep low level moisture over FL causing big rainfall totals.

Having an awesome birthday today! :DDD
64. N3EG
Quoting Neapolitan:

More than likely, yes. Though that would be a hugely false equivalence, of course. It would be like claiming that while the Green Bay Packers are 13-0, the Indianapolis Colts are 0-13, so the average standing between them is thus 6.5-6.5, meaning there's no difference between the two teams. Though that won't stop "skeptics" from trying...


Proof positive that global warming is affecting football!
Dang...Can't even get down to the 50's in West Palm Beach...

Quoting Articuno:
Having an awesome birthday today! :DDD

:D
62: How old are you now?
LMAO, Florida can't get a winter over there, how does it feel burning up? no hurricane strikes in years, now no winter
Quoting KoritheMan:
62: How old are you now?

13
Quoting AtHomeInTX:
Speaking of extremes, and it was hard to find this among all the other flooding storms of late, but remember this one?


U.S. Department of the Interior
U.S. Geological Survey

Floods in Southeast Texas,
October 1994

Rainfall in southeast Texas, which
ranged in amounts from about 8 to more
than 28 inches during October 15–19,
1994, caused severe flooding in parts of a
38-county area. A combination of meteorological
events—residual atmospheric
moisture over southern Texas associated
with Hurricane Rosa from the Pacific
Coast of Mexico and low-level moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico drawn inland to
a warm front by a strong low-pressure
system over the southern Rocky Mountains—
spawned vigorous thunderstorms
that produced rainfall amounts that may
exceed records for the area.

Flooding was most severe in the San
Jacinto River Basin along the West and
East Forks of the San Jacinto River and
along Spring Creek; in the Trinity River
Basin near Lake Livingston and along
several tributaries to the lake; and in the
Lavaca River Basin. Flooding was also
severe in several coastal basins, notably
Cedar and Pine Island Bayous. Many of
the resulting peak stages (maximum
water-surface elevation above a datum)
and streamflows exceeded all observed
historical values.


I remember that one very well! I had 7 feet of water in my house from Clear Creek in Friendswood (30 minutes south of Houston). It was quite an event!
74. MTWX
This made me giggle a little

... Dense fog advisory in effect from midnight tonight to 11 am
CST Tuesday...

The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a dense fog
advisory... which is in effect from midnight tonight to 11 am CST
Tuesday.

Fog is expected to develop later this evening with dense fog forming
after midnight and during the overnight hours while lingering into
mid morning Tuesday.

* Visibility: frequently one quarter mile or less.

* Impacts: reduced visibilities will create hazardous driving
conditions through the overnight and early morning hours.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A dense fog advisory means visibilities will frequently be reduced to
less than one quarter mile. If driving... slow down... use your
headlights... and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
6:00 AM JST December 13 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.6N 112.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 8.6N 110.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting Articuno:

13


another 8th grader besides me =P
Quoting SPLbeater:


another 8th grader besides me =P

*7th.
:)
Lots of rain on tap for TX. You wouldn't know this is a La Nina with all the rain some parts of TX have been getting over the last several weeks.

Quoting Articuno:

*7th.
:)


ah, well if today was ur birthday ur 2 months ahead of me. im 12. but i skpped 6th grade. public school up to 5th, homeschooled starting at 7th. lol :D
UK braces for back-to-back lashing from the worst string of winter storms seen in 30 years


100MPH STORMS ON THEIR WAY
Posted on December 12, 2011
December 12, 2011 %u2013 LONDON %u2013 Britain was told to brace itself for the worst weather in 30 years %u2013 with forecasts of gale-force winds, snow, sleet and torrential rain. The Met Office issued a weather warning of gales as strong as 100mph and a freezing wind chill factor bringing the coldest week of the winter so far. Experts said there will be little respite until the New Year with more brutal weather during the run-up to Christmas...........................

Link

Beautiful sunset tonight.
Quoting Articuno:
Beautiful sunset tonight.

and yes my name is ryan (lol)
Quoting Articuno:
Beautiful sunset tonight.


excellent photo!!
Quoting sunlinepr:


excellent photo!!

thanks. I upload most of my pictures to wunderground
so if you like that then check out my gallery. :)

Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I remember that one very well! I had 7 feet of water in my house from Clear Creek in Friendswood (30 minutes south of Houston). It was quite an event!



Yes it was over here on the border too. Of course the Griswalds pick that week to move a brand new mobile home onto our land. Trying to set a power pole into thigh deep gumbo mud was quite the adventure. It was soup! Under the water! Lol. I didn't know until recently what had caused all that rain. Rosa moved us in. Rita moved us out. But hey almost 11 years. Thats a record for me so far. ( I'm trying to be positive with Mother Nature ) She may have it in for me. We bought a bass boat last year. Lol.
Quoting Articuno:
Having an awesome birthday today! :DDD

Happy Birthday Articuno! Glad youre haveing a good one. So hows everyone this monday afternoon?
Articuno, I am officially old enough to call you a youngster. :P :P
SPL, you being 12 would certainly help to explain some things.
Nice to see so much youth on the site, also good luck on all your exams, had my Economics exam today.
"I'm as old as my tongue and a little older than my teeth"
Quoting KoritheMan:
Articuno, I am officially old enough to call you a youngster. :P :P

LOL
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
"I'm as old as my tongue and a little older than my teeth"

:o)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Articuno, I am officially old enough to call you a youngster. :P :P


You are older than a lot of us here.... :P

OLD! ;)

Oh btw, happy birthday! (to Articuno)
Quoting Articuno:

thanks. I upload most of my pictures to wunderground
so if you like that then check out my gallery. :)


For being 13, YOU ARE an excellent photographer... I went over your photos... keep on preparing to master that talent....
Quoting SPLbeater:


ah, well if today was ur birthday ur 2 months ahead of me. im 12. but i skpped 6th grade. public school up to 5th, homeschooled starting at 7th. lol :D
Quoting Articuno:

13

Cool, I get to boss both of you around.

lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cool, I get to boss both of you around.

lol.

I'm not going to let you boss me around!
* runs away *
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I'm not going to let you boss me around!
* runs away *

lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cool, I get to boss both of you around.

lol.

Have I said it's opposite day yet?
So I get to boss you around!
Quoting Articuno:

Have I said it's opposite day yet?
So I get to boss you around!

Nope, opposite day isn't until Octuly 35, 1935.
94. But not as old as master Grothar. :S
And one leaves.

Although the conservative government never liked the idea of the Kyoto Protocol much/at all. And they claim that it's for jobs, but ha..I wish. Stupid conservatives.

North America sure looks bad on the map of the Kyoto Protocol now...

103. j2008
Quoting KoritheMan:
94. But not as old as master Grothar. :S
LOL.......
*shrug* He said it, not me.
Quoting KoritheMan:
SPL, you being 12 would certainly help to explain some things.


hahahahahaha
happy birthday articuno!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nope, opposite day isn't until Octuly 35, 1935.

My brain right now.
So I'm not a very good pokemon historian but were we born on the same day?
Quoting KoritheMan:
94. But not as old as master Grothar. :S


Twit!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Big announcement about Higgs-Boson particle tomorrow at 8a.m.


Link
Thanks for pointing that out VA.
Interesting discussion about the Higgs boson experiment follows the NY Times article.
Quoting SPLbeater:


ah, well if today was ur birthday ur 2 months ahead of me. im 12. but i skpped 6th grade. public school up to 5th, homeschooled starting at 7th. lol :D
12 years old and home schooled...

It all makes sense now. I'll be sure to make sure my children never do homeschooling or skip 6th grade because it is frightening how serious the consequences are.
Quoting Articuno:

:o)


Happy Birthday, Articuno. Enjoy, your day. But trust me, Birthdays can get annoying after a while.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Big announcement about Higgs-Boson particle tomorrow at 8a.m.



Interesting article. Looking forward to hear what they find. However, Gerald O'Hare, from Rowan University, misspelled veracity in his comment at the bottom of the article. He is claiming it will be hard to prove. I think it is a exciting experiment. Thanks for posting it.
Wet Panama....

Quoting Grothar:



Interesting article. Looking forward to hear what they find. However, Gerald O'Hare, from Rowan University, misspelled veracity in his comment at the bottom of the article. He is claiming it will be hard to prove. I think it is a exciting experiment. Thanks for posting it.

No Comment

heheheheh
117. MTWX
Evening all! Happy Birthday Ryan! This weather in Mississippi is driving me nuts! A few days ago the high barely got above 40 and tomorrow it's suppose to push 70!
118. MTWX
Quoting Grothar:


Happy Birthday, Articuno. Enjoy, your day. But trust me, Birthdays can get annoying after a while.


AMEN!!
950mb....wind picking up, ASCAT missed bulk. hmm. Europe is in prayers.


Quoting SPLbeater:
950mb....wind picking up, ASCAT missed bulk. hmm. Europe is in prayers.




Yep, the GFS has it down to 949


Quoting Grothar:


Yep, the GFS has it down to 949



BAH !
I hope it does not mess with flights out of Heathrow on Thursday.....
I have not seen my Daughter and Grandsons for too long.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Big announcement about Higgs-Boson particle tomorrow at 8a.m.


Thanks for pointing that out. The CERN work has been amazing so far!
There are still no answers as to what caused an apparent explosion in Perry County Sunday night.
Posted: 6:44 PM Dec 12, 2011
Reporter: Katie Roach
Email Address: katie.roach@wymtnews.com

There are still no answers as to what caused an apparent explosion in Perry County Sunday night.
Crews spent hours searching Sunday night after initial reports of a possible plane crash, but they gave up the search around 1:00 a.m. and said it was probably an explosion at an abandoned mine.
Now officials with the Division of Abandoned Mine Lands are saying there is no evidence at the mine that would support an explosion.
Some say they felt their homes shaking, others say they saw a fireball, but as of now no one can say for sure what happened in Perry County Sunday night.
Preliminary reports of possible plane crash were ruled out after searching for hours and finding no crash scene, that led officials to this explanation.

"There is a mine break up there. It happens in eastern Kentucky with a lot with old abandoned mines. They catch fire, smoke real bad, and sometimes they flame up. It does kill the trees around and that is possibly what could be seen from the air," said Lotts Creek Fire Chief Chris Engle.
Officials from the Division of Abandoned Mine Lands were called Monday to investigate and found that there is a coal seam fire that is causing the smoke and the burned trees, but that's all they are able to confirm.
"My investigators found no evidence of an explosion or a fire ball. There was no crater no debris that they could ascertain," said the Director of the Division of Abandoned Mine Lands Steve Hohmann.
So until more information can be found, that leaves no explanation for the shaking houses and what appeared to be a fireball in the sky, but some in the area have their own explanation for what happened.
"If there is no plane missing I think it probably could be a U.F.O. If there is no debris, it probably burned before it hit the ground," said Perry County resident Kathy Collins.
For now, it remains a mystery.

Officials with the Division of Abandoned Mine Lands say they are planning to go back up to the mine site on Wednesday.

Very strategic position in the Indian Ocean

China to set up military base in Indian Ocean

Posted by Kanchana Devi on December 12, 2011 in Exclusive, National, News, Top Headlines 0 Comments

Beijing, Dec 12 (TruthDive): China on Monday announced that it will set up its first military base abroad in the Indian Ocean island of Seychelles to seek supplies and recuperate facilities for its Navy, which may cause unease in India.

The base in Seychelles is regarded significant by analysts as China is about to launch its first aircraft carrier. It is currently undergoing final trials.

The decision to establish its first naval base abroad was taken during Chinese Defence Minister Gen Liang Guanglies goodwill visit to Seychelles earlier this month.

During the visit, Seychelles Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Paul Adam said his country has invited China to set up a military base on the archipelago to beef up the fight against piracy.


Link
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
12:00 PM JST December 13 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 8.7N 111.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 7 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 7.8N 109.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting Grothar:


Yep, the GFS has it down to 949




that is a scary superstorm
It is 945 mb now
Quoting Patrap:
The Singularity.....


Patrap, try as I might, I have no idea what that post means.
Quoting Grothar:


Happy Birthday, Articuno. Enjoy, your day. But trust me, Birthdays can get annoying after a while.


???

I thought that you only celebrated the centennials now. That would make you, what? 25-26?
Quoting sunlinepr:
Very strategic position in the Indian Ocean

China to set up military base in Indian Ocean

Posted by Kanchana Devi on December 12, 2011 in Exclusive, National, News, Top Headlines 0 Comments

Beijing, Dec 12 (TruthDive): China on Monday announced that it will set up its first military base abroad in the Indian Ocean island of Seychelles to seek supplies and recuperate facilities for its Navy, which may cause unease in India.

The base in Seychelles is regarded significant by analysts as China is about to launch its first aircraft carrier. It is currently undergoing final trials.

The decision to establish its first naval base abroad was taken during Chinese Defence Minister Gen Liang Guanglies goodwill visit to Seychelles earlier this month.

During the visit, Seychelles Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Paul Adam said his country has invited China to set up a military base on the archipelago to beef up the fight against piracy.


Link


Actually, China has denied it wants to set up a permanent base in the Seychelles. It says it wants to pay for facilities for resupply and recuperation of the current Chinese anti-piracy fleet that patrols the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. This would be consistent with Chna's stated position of never setting up a base on foreign soil, although the definition of "base" has been stretched considerably in the past. In an interesting yet little publicized bit of Sino-American military cooperation, the US does have a small base on the Seychelles that operates drones that patrol the same area. The Chinese Navy is fed information from the drones, and has taken out several pirate ships based on information provided by US drones. Apparently, the last thing you want to see if you're a pirate is a Chinese frigate on the horizon, since there has not been a report of a live prisoner taken from any Chinese intervention. :)

http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/article2709 137.ece
Quoting TomTaylor:

I'll be sure to make sure my children never do homeschooling or skip 6th grade because it is frightening how serious the consequences are.
If done correctly, homeschool is actually probably the wisest avenue. And I don't say this just because I was homeschooled.
There are still no answers as to what caused an apparent explosion in Perry County Sunday night.


It was a mine explosion. I have relatives that live there. That area of Kentucky has thousands of miles of abandoned mine tunnels, some of which have been burning for 50 or 60 years. They just smolder until something causes a portion of the adit to cave in, admitting oxygen. That's when you get the big fireball and loud boom, even when the surface hole is fairly small. I'm sure that's the cause of the burned vegetation they found. At least they were able to interview Kathy Collins, the local eccentric, who explains it was a UFO that burned up before it reached the ground. I've found TV stations and newspapers have local nutcases like this in reserve to add some color to what is otherwise a pretty boring story. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:
If done correctly, homeschool is actually probably the wisest avenue. And I don't say this just because I was homeschooled.
If done correctly, I would agree, at least education-wise. However, as far as the social aspects of school are concerned, I'd say public schooling is a better option. Socializing the youth is just about the most important aspect of public education, aside from education itself of course.

But yea, homeschooling is not nearly as bad as I made it sound, I was just trying to lay into SPL because he's so oblivious and ignorant when it comes to well established scientific theories and facts.
Quoting TomTaylor:
If done correctly, I would agree, at least education-wise. However, as far as the social aspects of school are concerned, I'd say public schooling is a better option. Socializing the youth is just about the most important aspect of public education, aside from education itself of course.

But yea, homeschooling is not nearly as bad as I made it sound, I was just trying to lay into SPL a bit. Since he's so oblivious and ignorant when it comes to well established scientific theories and facts.


I agree, socializing is extremely important, and I admit where to commit one's loyalties (to home or public schooling) is a difficult decision. If I knew for sure my child would have adequate socializing through his life, then I'd happily choose homeschooling, simply because the education is superior.

btw Tom, do you happen to have an archive of vertical shear anomalies? I'm putting the finishing touches on that long anticipated blog and need it. I tried using this one, but it only covers the period from July to present. I want something illustrating the upper wind anomalies throughout the entire season.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I agree, socializing is extremely important, and I admit where to commit one's loyalties (to home or public schooling) is a difficult decision. If I knew for sure my child would have adequate socializing through his life, then I'd happily choose homeschooling, simply because the education is superior.

btw Tom, do you happen to have an archive of vertical shear anomalies? I'm putting the finishing touches on that long anticipated blog and need it. I tried using this one, but it only covers the period from July to present. I want something illustrating the upper wind anomalies throughout the entire season.
Yeah agreed.

And, that's a good question, I'll look through my links and see if I have anything. Are you talking about like average wind shear anomalies through the entire season? Or just upper level wind anomalies throughout the entire season?

Edit: The RAMMB website for the Experimental TC Genesis project has the entire season shown. Link
If you're looking for actual mapped wind shear anomalies, the only link I know of that shows the entire season is found at this website under Vertical Shear. Unfortunately, they only go up to 60 day running averages but it animates through the entire season.

Also, if you are just looking for upper level wind anomalies, then use the PSD Reanalysis website.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah agreed.

And uh, that's a good question, I'll look through my links and see if I have anything. You're just talking about like average wind shear anomalies through the entire season? Or just upper level wind anomalies throughout the entire season?


The former.
I'll use RAMMB. Thanks mate.

btw, you ever solve that drama?
Quoting KoritheMan:
I'll use RAMMB. Thanks mate.

btw, you ever solve that drama?
Yeah its all good haha. Hope all is well with your sublime job at Walmart! lol, but my mom is calling me so I gotta get off for now, later man
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yeah its all good haha. Hope all is well with your sublime job at Walmart! lol, but my mom is calling me so I gotta get off for now, later man


Glad to hear that.

And if I can get more hours (only getting 24 the week of Christmas), I'll be happy for now. At least, as happy as I can be working in a ****hole like that.

In the meantime ladies and gentlemen, my long awaited blog summarizing the 2011 Atlantic and East Pacific hurricane seasons is finally complete!
"Explosions in the centre of the Belgian city of Liege have killed at least two people and wounded about 12, Belgian media say.

They say several men threw explosives and grenades in a crowd at a bus stop."

Link

For us in the weather, it looks like the storm at the end of the week is not nearly as dangerous as first thought, though it may affect France more. Guess we'll see closer to the time. Good news if it's not so strong.
144. MahFL
Quoting MTWX:
...and leave plenty of distance ahead of you.




If it's dense fog how can you see far enogh to know it's a safe distance ?

I've never really seen dense fog in NE FL, though they always describe it as so, you can normaly see at least half a mile.
145. MahFL
Strong low affecting Scotland today.

146. MahFL
I wish the UK Met Office would not use the term "temporary blizzard", as by definition a blizzrd typically has to last 3 hours. They should say something like "temporary heavy snow and wind".


Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
21:00 PM JST December 13 2011
===============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 6.2N 143.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 18 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 7.8N 135.0E - (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting TomTaylor:
If done correctly, I would agree, at least education-wise. However, as far as the social aspects of school are concerned, I'd say public schooling is a better option. Socializing the youth is just about the most important aspect of public education, aside from education itself of course.

But yea, homeschooling is not nearly as bad as I made it sound, I was just trying to lay into SPL because he's so oblivious and ignorant when it comes to well established scientific theories and facts.


I homeschool my six year old son. I can say with absolute certainty that he is receiving a better education at home (he's currently assessed at the 9th grade reading level, for example). We are also completely secular (everyone assumes that homeshooling == religious).

As you pointed out, it's the social aspect that is more challenging with homeschooling. More so if you happen to be secular.
Historic drought alongside historic flooding. Soon those in denial will have to accept the reality of extreme climate change due to man's influence on the planet or they will need to simply stay silent.

Saw a program on lightning last night. The Catatumbo lightning phenomena in Venezuela to be precise. Locals in the region have said the displays have grown much more intense in recent years. It is already accepted fact that global warming is the culprit.

This year in the United States. Particularly in the middle atlantic and north east regions extreme lightning events were documented.

The evidence continues to mount. Non believers are becoming more and more isolated.
It is already accepted fact that global warming is the culprit.

I hope we don't hear this claim much more. Wikipedia says of the Catatumbo lightning:

"After appearing continually for centuries, the lightning ceased from January to April 2010, apparently due to drought.[5] This raised fears that it might have been extinguished permanently.[6] The lightning reappeared after a two month period and continues to be seen today."

Wikipedia also says the following. Given the mentions of uranium and swamp gas, I think the topic is ripe for demystification.

"Between 1966 and 1970, Andrew Zavrostky investigated the area three times, with assistance from the University of Los Andes. He concluded that the lightning would have several epicentres in the marshes of Juan Manuel de Aguas National Park, Claras Aguas Negras, and west Lake Maracaibo. In 1991 he suggested that the phenomenon occurred due to cold and warm air currents meeting around the area. The study also speculated that an isolated cause for the lightning might be the presence of uranium in the bedrock.[7]

"Between 1997 and 2000 Nelson Falcón conducted several studies, and produced the first microphysics model of the Catatumbo Lightning. He identified the methane produced by the swamps and the oil deposits in the area as a major cause of the phenomenon.[8] It has been noted to have little effects on local flora such as ferns, despite concerns.[9]"
Here come the >50kt barbs
Quoting Patrap:
ESL by LSU

Congratulations Patrap, you according to this posts footing appear to have now achieved 100,000 comments. This is no mean feat.
Over in the the UK on the mountains above Manchester we are having a breezy day but nothing like as windy as last week, fine and not too cold at about 6/c.
Later in the week things are set to get bad according to the Met. but at least its not driving rain at the moment.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I homeschool my six year old son. I can say with absolute certainty that he is receiving a better education at home (he's currently assessed at the 9th grade reading level, for example). We are also completely secular (everyone assumes that homeshooling == religious).

As you pointed out, it's the social aspect that is more challenging with homeschooling. More so if you happen to be secular.



Congrats on having your son reading at such an advanced level. You are mistaken however in your belief that "everyone assumes that homeschooling = religious." As a working musician I always knew that I wasn't going to Sunday services because I gigged Sat nites till late and often had a Sunday gig as well. Because of that, I elected to put my child at Redeemer Lutheran School (small private school )from K5 thru 8th grade to assure he had some religion in his life. Best thing I ever did. He's in 11th grade now at a public school here in Pensacola. He's a member of the National Honor Society and growing to be a fine young man. I'm very proud of him.

Hurricane predictors admit they can’t predict hurricanes

Monday, December 12, 2011
By Tom Spears




Two top U.S. hurricane forecasters, revered like rock stars in Deep South hurricane country, are quitting the practice because it doesn’t work.

William Gray and Phil Klotzbach say a look back shows their past 20 years of forecasts had no value.

The two scientists from Colorado State University will still discuss different probabilities as hurricane seasons approach — a much more cautious approach. But the shift signals how far humans are, even with supercomputers, from truly knowing what our weather will do next.

Gray, recently joined by Klotzbach, has been known for decades for an annual forecast of how many hurricanes can be expected each official hurricane season (which runs from June to November.) Southerners hang on his words, as even a mid-sized hurricane can cause billions in damage.

Last week, the pair dropped this announcement out of a clear, blue sky:

“We are discontinuing our early December quantitative hurricane forecast for the next year ... Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.”

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen

Quoting PurpleDrank:

Hurricane predictors admit they can’t predict hurricanes
... Our early December Atlantic basin seasonal hurricane forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill even though the hindcast studies on which they were based had considerable skill.

© Copyright (c) The Ottawa Citizen



You gotta be joking, right?? They actually said that their "hindsight studies had considerable skill"..

Lets have all the junior highers on the blog comment on that jewel!
Quoting EasyRiderX:
Historic drought alongside historic flooding. Soon those in denial will have to accept the reality of extreme climate change due to man's influence on the planet or they will need to simply stay silent.

Saw a program on lightning last night. The Catatumbo lightning phenomena in Venezuela to be precise. Locals in the region have said the displays have grown much more intense in recent years. It is already accepted fact that global warming is the culprit.

This year in the United States. Particularly in the middle atlantic and north east regions extreme lightning events were documented.

The evidence continues to mount. Non believers are becoming more and more isolated.

Look at the graph Dr. Masters put up, the one with the percentage of droughts and floods. Notice that there is no pattern, such as increasing number of events per year. In 2010, there was less than 20%, and in 2009, there was between 25-30%. So unless this happens again over the course of the next few years, I will choose not to believe in global warming. The bottom line is that just one year of record extreme droughts and floods does not mean it will be like this next year.
The lowest pressure in the United Kingdom from the storm so far has been 946 mb in Stornoway.
Quoting mistymountainhop:
Troll Alert: Xyrus2003, NeapolitanXtremeSocialist, and JFVflyingHigh




do you have any thing better to say ??? this put on ignore and move on
How mistymountainhop knows about JFV with a membership that began 2 weeks ago is curious.
Quoting petewxwatcher:
How mistymountainhop knows about JFV with a membership that began 2 weeks ago is curious.



yes it is and if he this comes in here and keeps saying what he keeps saying he may end up banned from the blogs
Quoting petewxwatcher:
#157---why select a handle that promotes illegal drugs?


Not only that, but the popularity of Purple Drank and other such concoctions has led doctors to be more cautious about prescribing codeine cough syrup to those really in need, since the DEA is auditing doctors more closely who prescribe what they consider an "excessive" amount of codeine cough syrup. There's some kind of really nasty upper respiratory crud that's sweeping the South right now. The whole waiting room was jammed with people with continuous violent coughs. I still had to cough up a huge mucus ball to convince my doc that I really needed codeine cough syrup if I was to keep my one remaining lung. Some people simply don't realize their actions have unintended consequences. I still feel lousy, BTW, and hope this thing doesn't contine you to spread to the rest of the country.
The NHC just released the Tropical Cyclone Report for TS Bret. Among the few changes:

--The max wind speed was raised to 60 knots from 55;

--The storm's ACE increased from 2.945 to 3.2775.

The TCRs for ten storms have now been released. We're still awaiting those for Katia, Irene, Philippe, Rina, Maria, Sean, Emily, Lee, and Jose.
Quoting JNCali:


You gotta be joking, right?? They actually said that their "hindsight studies had considerable skill"..

Lets have all the junior highers on the blog comment on that jewel!


I'm glad to see Gray discontinue these ridiculous December tropical forecasts. As Dr. Masters has pointed out many times, these forecast have no skill beyond chance, and I think I remember that they were actually less than chance, in most cases. I have no idea what a "hindsight study" is or how it relates to these Decemeber forecasts, but it's clear to me that scientists have trouble just saying they were only guessing, with the best information they had, and it turns out their guesses were lousy.
This map shows nuetral conditions for next Summer. This will be interesting to see when El-Nino decides to make an appearance next Summer or Fall.

Quoting 12george1:

Look at the graph Dr. Masters put up, the one with the percentage of droughts and floods. Notice that there is no pattern, such as increasing number of events per year. In 2010, there was less than 20%, and in 2009, there was between 25-30%. So unless this happens again over the course of the next few years, I will choose not to believe in global warming. The bottom line is that just one year of record extreme droughts and floods does not mean it will be like this next year.


You would be correct to not wish to use the data concerning regional droughts for a 1-2 year period to make any claims towards global warming. I would consider it unwise to ignore the data collected over several decades and from many different data sets to claim that the AGWT is not supported by the evidence of these data sets.

How do you manage to ignore the fact that CO2 is a known greenhouse gas and that human activities pumps many tons of CO2 into the atmosphere everyday? How do you dislodge this fact from your line of reasoning?
Quoting 12george1:

Look at the graph Dr. Masters put up, the one with the percentage of droughts and floods. Notice that there is no pattern, such as increasing number of events per year. In 2010, there was less than 20%, and in 2009, there was between 25-30%. So unless this happens again over the course of the next few years, I will choose not to believe in global warming. The bottom line is that just one year of record extreme droughts and floods does not mean it will be like this next year.

Well, first, it's not about "belief", but about accepting the scientific facts; I don't "believe" in global warming any more than I "believe" that some caterpillars become butterflies, or that electrical resistance makes incandescent light bulb filaments glow.

Second, there have been an increasing number of severe weather events, far more than the "just one year" of which you wrote. Here's a graph published a month or so ago to help illustrate the point:

This year in the United States. Particularly in the middle atlantic and north east regions extreme lightning events were documented.

Can you give me a link to these extreme lighting events and how they were documented? I'd also be interested in any study that shows any relationship between lighting in general, and "extreme" lighting in particular, to GW. I had three trees in the woods behind my house hit by lighting this year. Was that extreme? If so, how would I know? I'm having trouble visualizing this on a larger scale.
Scientists say they are homing in on Higgs boson aka "god particle."
We're inching closer, but we're not there yet.
~Washington Post


An excerpt from Today's CERN Press Release...
Higgs bosons, if they exist, are very short lived and can decay in many different ways. Discovery relies on observing the particles they decay into rather than the Higgs itself. Both ATLAS and CMS have analysed several decay channels, and the experiments see small excesses in the low mass region that has not yet been excluded.

Taken individually, none of these excesses is any more statistically significant than rolling a die and coming up with two sixes in a row. What is interesting is that there are multiple independent measurements pointing to the region of 124 to 126 GeV. It's far too early to say whether ATLAS and CMS have discovered the Higgs boson, but these updated results are generating a lot of interest in the particle physics community.

...

A green graph with red lines. Bah Humbug.
:)

Add: The mean black line is straight across.
Despite no rain chance today we still have heavy rain showers moving ashore near Daytona Beach.

Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, first, it's not about "belief", but about accepting the scientific facts; I don't "believe" in global warming any more than I "believe" that some caterpillars become butterflies, or that electrical resistance makes incandescent light bulb filaments glow.

Second, there have been an increasing number of severe weather events, far more than the "just one year" of which you wrote. Here's a graph published a month or so ago to help illustrate the point:



Neapolitan, just to make sure I have this straight, you believe that GW is an absolutely settled fact of science, with no room for error and zero probability of any alternative explanations for what we're seeing?

Just as a matter of interest, the chart you presented is from Munich Re, one of the biggest insurance and reinsurance companies in the world. I have no idea what the source was for these rather general categories of natural disasters were. Do you? Were they losses coveed by insurance, or all events? If they were losses covered by insurance, it's natural that we'd see an increasing number of events each year, since more people and firms are required to have insurance by mortgage lenders and government agencies each year. As a matter of pure speculation, since Munich Re is in the business of selling insurance, it's in their best interest to show that disasters and, by analogy, losses, are increasing each year, thus justifying the need for increasing premiums. Not saying that's the case, but it makes sense if I was running Munich Re.
More rain for Drought plagued Texas. This next series of storms could bring TX several inches of rain over the next 8 days.

5 Day precip Outlook


8 day precip outlook
hey !!
thanks for the information dr jeff
i don`t get why the west pacific season its not over, another two tropical depressions ?!!
Quoting sar2401:
This year in the United States. Particularly in the middle atlantic and north east regions extreme lightning events were documented.

Can you give me a link to these extreme lighting events and how they were documented? I'd also be interested in any study that shows any relationship between lighting in general, and "extreme" lighting in particular, to GW. I had three trees in the woods behind my house hit by lighting this year. Was that extreme? If so, how would I know? I'm having trouble visualizing this on a larger scale.


You want to see extreme lightning then come to FL from late May thru Mid October.
Quoting 12george1:

Look at the graph Dr. Masters put up, the one with the percentage of droughts and floods. Notice that there is no pattern, such as increasing number of events per year. In 2010, there was less than 20%, and in 2009, there was between 25-30%. So unless this happens again over the course of the next few years, I will choose not to believe in global warming. The bottom line is that just one year of record extreme droughts and floods does not mean it will be like this next year.


You are reading the graph incorrectly. There has been an upward trend of events since 1980 in the US. A simple regression line through the data would illustrate that.

Both climate and weather are chaotic systems. There is a lot of naturally occurring variability. That's why climate scientists look at decades worth of data so they can filter out the "noise".

Climate change doesn't cause extreme events. It increases the likelihood that extreme events will occur. The current data, research, and observations support this conclusion.

Huge rainfall totals yesterday in NE FL.

Tropical Storm Bret post season report is up. Peak intensity was increased to 60kts.

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Tropical Storm Bret post season report is up. Peak intensity was increased to 60kts.

Link




see commet 168

Nice storm pic from southwest of Great Britain (Wales/Porthcawl; AP/PA)
Source: http://www.spiegel.de/panorama/0,1518,803522,00.ht ml
Quoting sar2401:


I'm glad to see Gray discontinue these ridiculous December tropical forecasts. As Dr. Masters has pointed out many times, these forecast have no skill beyond chance, and I think I remember that they were actually less than chance, in most cases. I have no idea what a "hindsight study" is or how it relates to these Decemeber forecasts, but it's clear to me that scientists have trouble just saying they were only guessing, with the best information they had, and it turns out their guesses were lousy.


All of them are lousy guesses anytime of the year
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, first, it's not about "belief", but about accepting the scientific facts; I don't "believe" in global warming any more than I "believe" that some caterpillars become butterflies, or that electrical resistance makes incandescent light bulb filaments glow.

Second, there have been an increasing number of severe weather events, far more than the "just one year" of which you wrote. Here's a graph published a month or so ago to help illustrate the point:



It's leading up to Rapture Nea, it's not GW
Quoting sar2401:


Neapolitan, just to make sure I have this straight, you believe that GW is an absolutely settled fact of science, with no room for error and zero probability of any alternative explanations for what we're seeing?

Just as a matter of interest, the chart you presented is from Munich Re, one of the biggest insurance and reinsurance companies in the world. I have no idea what the source was for these rather general categories of natural disasters were. Do you? Were they losses coveed by insurance, or all events? If they were losses covered by insurance, it's natural that we'd see an increasing number of events each year, since more people and firms are required to have insurance by mortgage lenders and government agencies each year. As a matter of pure speculation, since Munich Re is in the business of selling insurance, it's in their best interest to show that disasters and, by analogy, losses, are increasing each year, thus justifying the need for increasing premiums. Not saying that's the case, but it makes sense if I was running Munich Re.

I look at climate change theory as I look at the theory of evolution. That is, while there are certain areas that need fleshing out, the overwhelming evidence supports the theory, and there is simply no other alternate theory that can account for what has been observed for decades. In other words, I am convinced--and will remain so until/unless a viable alternative is introduced--that 1) the planet is warming rapidly due to increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and 2) mankind's burning of fossil fuels is mostly if not wholly to blame. Note that I'm not saying there is "zero probability of any alternative explanations for what we're seeing"; I'm saying that, try as scientists have been to come up with something else, not a single one has been offered, and it's becoming more likely with each passing day and each new observation that none ever will be.

The Munich Re graph I produced in #173 doesn't refer at all to damage amounts or insured losses; it's just the plain numbers of natural disasters as defined by the UN.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


You would be correct to not wish to use the data concerning regional droughts for a 1-2 year period to make any claims towards global warming. I would consider it unwise to ignore the data collected over several decades and from many different data sets to claim that the AGWT is not supported by the evidence of these data sets.

How do you manage to ignore the fact that CO2 is a known greenhouse gas and that human activities pumps many tons of CO2 into the atmosphere everyday? How do you dislodge this fact from your line of reasoning?

It's easy to understand why one doesn't place too much emphasis on the effect of C02 and other greenhouse gases when it's been documented throughout history that volcanoes have spewed out significantly more C02 from what is present now. Furthermore, C02 levels have increased at levels exponentially far more in the wake of significant volcanism through Earth's history than from what is measured today.
google chorme 16 is out
Quoting Neapolitan:

I look at climate change theory as I look at the theory of evolution. That is, while there are certain areas that need fleshing out, the overwhelming evidence supports the theory, and there is simply no other alternate theory that can account for what has been observed for decades. In other words, I am convinced--and will remain so until/unless a viable alternative is introduced--that 1) the planet is warming rapidly due to increasing concentrations of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and 2) mankind's burning of fossil fuels is mostly if not wholly to blame. Note that I'm not saying there is "zero probability of any alternative explanations for what we're seeing"; I'm saying that, try as scientists have been to come up with something else, not a single one has been offered, and it's becoming more likely with each passing day and each new observation that none ever will be.

The Munich Re graph I produced in #173 doesn't refer at all to damage amounts or insured losses; it's just the plain numbers of natural disasters as defined by the UN.


Never listen to the UN Nea,
Quoting RitaEvac:


Never listen to the UN Nea,

Plus 100,000
Quoting RitaEvac:


Never listen to the UN Nea,

Say what you will about the UN, but a standard is a standard, no matter who makes it.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Say what you will about the UN, but a standard is a standard, no matter who makes it.

Just how weather is climate and climate is weather, right?
TEXAS CITY, Texas
Two ships bumped into each other in the Houston Ship Channel Tuesday morning.U.S. Coast Guard officials said the collision involving the Charleston, a 630-foot tanker vessel, and the Harvest Sun, a 623-foot cargo vessel, happened near the Texas City dike about 8 a.m. The damage to the ships was minor and nothing leaked from the ships, officials said.

Dense fog taking over region, nearing 1/4 mile and less outside
Quoting Neapolitan:

Say what you will about the UN, but a standard is a standard, no matter who makes it.


UN is about control, they don't want anybody having guns or gun rights, they want the people to be slaves so they can control the world. A one world government and so on. They want climate control to control what we do as people and so on. And I will fight till the death like the fore-fathers that founded this country
Not much in Winter Weather for the ConUs thus far this year!


Yes, please look at the graph again. There is very little white space under the mean line in the last 30 years, with the trend (red) above the mean consistently. That means there are more extreme events now than over the longer record.
From 55 - 80 the trend line was consistently below the mean line. So there are long trends of fewer extreme events in addition to more extreme weather events. But I agree we are WAY into 30 years of more extreme weather, and setting records at it now.
For global warming... look at the ocean surface trend data. Extreme US weather is an different, but somewhat related topic to global temperature.

No, Climate is NOT weather. Climate is long term trends and differences from average conditions. Weather is short and medium term events like seasonal droughts, hurricanes, blizzards, heat waves, etc.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Not much in Winter Weather for the ConUs thus far this year!




That will continue to be the case as well.

Orlando WX for the next 7 days.

Why are people still using the "volcanic CO2 is greater than human output" argument, when it's been known for at least 20 years that it's wrong?

I mean, it's not even close. It's as wrong as linking Napoleon to the American Civil War. It's as wrong as blaming JFK for the Great Depression. It's as wrong as claiming the Earth is 6000 years old.

http://www.skepticalscience.com/volcanoes-and-glo bal-warming.htm


27W
Quoting IvanJackinogh:

It's easy to understand why one doesn't place too much emphasis on the effect of C02 and other greenhouse gases when it's been documented throughout history that volcanoes have spewed out significantly more C02 from what is present now. Furthermore, C02 levels have increased at levels exponentially far more in the wake of significant volcanism through Earth's history than from what is measured today.


While it is true that CO2 levels have been higher before, this has happened at a much slower rate and allowed for adaptation. Major volcanic events, such as super calderas, have made for rapid levels of CO2 increases and has caused rapid climate change as well. Mass extinctions have usually been the result. Volcanoes also emit a huge amount of particulates into the atmosphere that will block sunlight and cause a cooling of the atmosphere. ... Have you seen any such major eruptions lately? Do you think, even for a brief moment, that human activity has not dumped tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, on a daily basis?

We can debate, to eternity, what Earth's climate has been like during its evolution. This will not negate the fact that rapid climate change, in a geological sense, has almost always resulted in mass extinctions. We can even debate what caused the climate changes of the past and before man even existed. This also does not negate that man's activities are dumping huge amounts of CO2 into atmosphere. CO2 was a greenhouse gas billions of years ago and still is today.

Even when taking into account the little that you have said, you have not nullified the fact that CO2 is a greenhouse gas and that human activities have dumped tons of CO2 into the atmosphere, on a daily basis. How do you plan on doing this?
Pressure is rising at Stornoway in the Scottish Hebrides but still falling in the Orkney and Shetland islands. Kirkwall in the Orkneys has a pressure of 950 mb at last hour. Latest pressure map in the Orkney and Shetland area. Not sure if any stations will beat the 946 mb reading this morning in Stornoway or not.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Not much in Winter Weather for the ConUs thus far this year!




Haven't checked in on the blog in a while, how's everyone doing?

It's even been a pretty quiet year in Colorado so far. Finally some good snow falling down in the San Juans. Was thinking about making the trek down there to get some backcountry in but the Avalanche danger is looking to high and I don't mess around with that.

Off to take a final on hurricanes and severe thunderstorms! I think i should do just fine after lurking on this blog for years, so thanks to all those who post such good info on here!



AVALANCHE WARNING
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
857 AM MST TUE DEC 13 2011

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE
COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER.

AVALANCHE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 12 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.

THE COLORADO AVALANCHE INFORMATION HAS ISSUED AN AVALANCHE WARNING
FOR MOUNTAINS AREAS IN THE NORTH SAN JUAN ZONE. HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS HAVE COMBINED TO BUILD DANGEROUS
WIND SLABS. AVALANCHES IN THE STORM SNOW COULD EASILY STEP DOWN TO
DEEPER WEAK LAYERS. EXPECT NATURAL AND HUMAN-TRIGGERED SLIDES IN THE
WARNING AREAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY. BACKCOUNTRY TRAVEL
IS NOT RECOMMENDED THROUGH AVALANCHE TERRAIN.

THE AVALANCHE WARNING IS VALID THROUGH 12 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AT
WHICH TIME AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED.
TD 27W 2000Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1008.0mb/ 35.0kt

Raw T# 2.7
Adj T# 2.7
Final T# 2.5
Jeff Masters had a guest blogger a few years back (I can't recall his name) who stated that hurricane meteorology is simply "...an attempt to approximate chaos." That has stuck with me...and gives a pretty good perspective to what is discussed here.
And the beat goes on and on and...

Firefighters working large brush fire in Beaumont's south end
Firefighters are working a large brush fire just south of Beaumont.
Jefferson County Sheriff's Deputy Rod Carroll
tells 12News HD firefighters are trying to contain the fire.  It has
consumed several acres south of the city.

Firefighters with the Beaumont Fire Department are on the scene of the blaze on Erie Street.  

Deputy
Carroll says that several neighboring structures could be in danger,
but currently there are no evacuation orders in place.
12 News HD has a crew on the way and will have more information as it becomes available.


Mostly cloudy, warmer this Tuesday Afternoon...Mostly
cloudy skies are expected the rest of this afternoon across Southeast
Texas.  Afternoon temperatures will depend greatly on how much sun an
area receives this afternoon.  The middle to upper 60s are expected with
70 possible in areas that see more sunshine.  Easterly winds are
forecasted.  No rainfall is expected.
 
Blowing up a bit now over the British Isles. I got this off the Guardian news a few minutes ago:-

"The biggest wave ever to hit Irish shores – 20.4 metres (67ft) high – has been recorded, meteorologists have revealed.

The wave was measured at a special buoy off the Donegal coast on Tuesday as a force ten storm raged."

Quoting sar2401:


Neapolitan, just to make sure I have this straight, you believe that GW is an absolutely settled fact of science, with no room for error and zero probability of any alternative explanations for what we're seeing?

Just as a matter of interest, the chart you presented is from Munich Re, one of the biggest insurance and reinsurance companies in the world. I have no idea what the source was for these rather general categories of natural disasters were. Do you? Were they losses coveed by insurance, or all events? If they were losses covered by insurance, it's natural that we'd see an increasing number of events each year, since more people and firms are required to have insurance by mortgage lenders and government agencies each year. As a matter of pure speculation, since Munich Re is in the business of selling insurance, it's in their best interest to show that disasters and, by analogy, losses, are increasing each year, thus justifying the need for increasing premiums. Not saying that's the case, but it makes sense if I was running Munich Re.

Kind of went down a rabbit hole on that. I think we can boil down Nea's reply to his last sentence.

"The Munich Re graph I produced in #173 doesn't refer at all to damage amounts or insured losses; it's just the plain numbers of natural disasters as defined by the UN."

I think sar's post qualifies as number 2 on the list of 38 ways to win any argument.

Use different meanings of your opponent%u2019s words to refute his argument.
Hi, just dropping out of lurk mode. During the season there were a few discussions of the possibility of hurricanes causing earthquakes. Most people brushed the possibilty off. For those interested in the possibility that severe weather might trigger quakes on faults that are 'ready to go', should have a look here

http://news.discovery.com/earth/severe-weather-ea rthquake-111212.html

Sorry you will have to cut and paste as my office pc prevents the 'link' button working.
Sorry, please take the space out of the middle of the word earthquake in post 211 for the link to work. The summary of the article (for those who don't want to surf is

"Monsoons, hurricanes and other extreme weather events may trigger earthquakes when faults are ready to rumble.

The new research presented this week at the American Geophysical Union's annual meeting in San Francisco does not suggest that all earthquakes are caused by storms or that all storms cause quakes. But by identifying some of the many conditions that put stress on faults, the new work may help scientists better forecast future tremors."


Quoting OviedoWatcher:
Sorry, please take the space out of the middle of the word earthquake in post 211 for the link to work. The summary of the article (for those who don't want to surf is

"Monsoons, hurricanes and other extreme weather events may trigger earthquakes when faults are ready to rumble.

The new research presented this week at the American Geophysical Union's annual meeting in San Francisco does not suggest that all earthquakes are caused by storms or that all storms cause quakes. But by identifying some of the many conditions that put stress on faults, the new work may help scientists better forecast future tremors."



I've been wondering about this for awhile. I happened upon a log by the NWS of Rita's landfall. As she was approaching there was a I think a 5.0 earthquake in the the southern GOM/BOC area. which best I can tell there is no fault there. But maybe? Only other thing I found about something similar was an earthquake in the eastern GOM off Florida while a hurricane was passing to the east of Florida in the Atlantic. I forgot which storm it was now, But I believe they said there was a fault line there? Anyway interesting stuff.  Thanks.


Sorry my link button works about as well as my quote does. Anyway, couldn't find the original article but this must be the quake.

The 2006 Gulf of Mexico earthquake was a 5.8 magnitude[1] earthquake that hit the Gulf of Mexico on September 10, 2006, about 250 miles west-southwest of Anna Maria, Florida around 10:56 AM EDT.
The quake was reportedly felt from Louisiana to Florida. There were no reports of major damages or casualties[2]. Items were knocked from shelves and seiches were observed in swimming pools in parts of Florida [1].
The earthquake was described by the USGS as a midplate earthquake, the
largest and most widely felt recorded in the past three decades in the
region[1].
According to the September 11, 2006, issue of The Tampa Tribune, earthquake tremors were last felt in Florida in 1952, recorded in Quincy, 20 miles northwest of Tallahassee.
And the hurricane?

Major volcanic events:-
Just a note on the above. From what I have always thought and read about "Volcanic eruptions," they are usually short term events ranging from a few hours to maybe a couple of years in duration. There will be throughout history certain exceptions to this and I do believe that at the moment at least one volcano has currently been erupting for several years.
Leaving exceptions out of the equation, any sudden massive emission of CO2 and who knows what else would have been over a short time spell, with probably a long time spell then for the atmosphere to re- stabilize at its previous levels.
What we seem to be dealing with on this global warming debate is a constant and ever increasing input of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, without it seems a large amount of particles normally associated with the volcanic CO2.
If everything continues as it is going without interruption then the levels of CO2 rise seem to be fairly predictable. If we get a major eruption then we will probably get a kick start into oblivion at the rate things seem to be going according to some of these graphs and measurements.
My god by reading some of these post you would think the world is going to end tomorrow. As a once GREAT Blogger on here said DOOM!

My quote function doesn't seem to impressive either. If you read the link, most of what they talk about is suggesting that heavy rains linked to monsoons etc could cause plate flexing and thus trigger quakes in plates that were about to 'go', rather than the pressure change doing it directly. Interesting none-the-less. I guess if a fault is under a lot of strain, it doesn't take much to push it over the edge.

Quoting sar2401:


Not only that, but the popularity of Purple Drank and other such concoctions has led doctors to be more cautious about prescribing codeine cough syrup to those really in need, since the DEA is auditing doctors more closely who prescribe what they consider an "excessive" amount of codeine cough syrup. There's some kind of really nasty upper respiratory crud that's sweeping the South right now. The whole waiting room was jammed with people with continuous violent coughs. I still had to cough up a huge mucus ball to convince my doc that I really needed codeine cough syrup if I was to keep my one remaining lung. Some people simply don't realize their actions have unintended consequences. I still feel lousy, BTW, and hope this thing doesn't contine you to spread to the rest of the country.
I've had bronchitis for the last month I have 3 different nebulizer meds now I have a cold and I suspect a ear infection, and the sad thing is my dad sent me to school with a 102 fever and I'm still not getting better.
A snippet from the Rita log. they only made it until 2a.m. I dont know what it is about huricanes and 2 a.am. around here??? lol anyway incase the bold doesn't work again look at 8:35 on the log.

9:20 PM - Just got off the conference call with the National Hurricane Center.  No

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; major changes to come with this forecast package, other than reducing the

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; intensity to 105 knots/120 mph.  Click here for a pic of the staff listening in.
9:15 PM - We have achieved hurricane status...64 knot/74 mph wind gust at 9:07!
9:15 PM - Just stepped out the back door of the office to take a look at conditions

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; outside...needless to say it's ugly.  The rain's only moderate at worst, but

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; blowing sideways...or swirling around in little eddies caused by anything

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; in its way. Looking to the south, west and north (toward the city), not a light

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; to be seen at all.
9:10 PM - This just in to the office...the Calcasieu Parish Office of Homeland Security

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; and Emergency Preparedness has issued a boil water order for the parish.
9:10 PM - With the power out at the airport, the automated observing unit on the runway

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; complex (the unit which supplies the official hourly weather for Lake Charles)

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; has only about 30 more minutes of functionality before the backup batteries

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; run out.
8:50 PM - We just received phone calls of thanks from Calcasieu Parish Director of

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; Homeland Security, Dick Gremillion, and Congressman Charles Boustany.

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; Glad we can live up to their high expectations!
8:35 PM - The U.S. Geological Survey is reporting an earthquake, magnitude 5.0, in the

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; Gulf of Mexico, 530 miles south of Brownsville.
8:30 PM - The Lake Charles doppler radar is back online and is showing the strongest

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; winds yet on their way to Southwest Louisiana...estimated at 70 to 80 knots

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; (roughly 80 to 90 mph).
8:20 PM - Forgot to mention that at 7:30, commercial power to the building failed and

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; the office generators kicked on.
8:00 PM - Now it's Steve's turn to do a live phone interview with KPLC...click here for

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; a pic.
8:00 PM - Various members of the staff have done a countless number of conference

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; calls and interviews the past few days.  Command central for these calls has

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; been our conference room, where a recent addition has been several maps for

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; quick access to needed info.  Here's a couple of pics: 1  2
7:50 PM - 71 mph gust!!!
7:35 PM - The office just had its highest gust so far...52 knots/60 mph.  Our radar also

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; failed.  Don't know if these two events are related...
7:10 PM - First staff meeting of the evening.  Discussed protocol in case of an

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; emergency at the office tonight or tomorrow.
6:50 PM - Click here for an image of the latest forecast track of Rita.
6:30 PM - Recent recon report indicates that Rita has 3 concentric eye walls...the outer

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; one being 80 nautical miles from the center.  This would be what caused the

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; recent strong wind report from Cameron.
6:25 PM - Roger is currently doing a live interview with KPLC, talking about what

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; to expect as far as tidal flooding is concerned around the area.  Click here

        & nbsp;       &nb sp; for a pic.

Quoting shadoclown45:
I've had bronchitis for the last month I have 3 different nebulizer meds now I have a cold and I suspect a ear infection, and the sad thing is my dad sent me to school with a 102 fever and I'm still not getting better.
It is illegal to send a student to public school our school district in CA if they had any fever, diarrhea or had vomited within 24 hours prior to start of day...
Sorry all. My edit button doesn't work either. Sigh  ;-)
Quoting OviedoWatcher:
My quote function doesn't seem to impressive either. If you read the link, most of what they talk about is suggesting that heavy rains linked to monsoons etc could cause plate flexing and thus trigger quakes in plates that were about to 'go', rather than the pressure change doing it directly. Interesting none-the-less. I guess if a fault is under a lot of strain, it doesn't take much to push it over the edge.





works for me and am uesing Chrome 16
Quoting shadoclown45:
I've had bronchitis for the last month I have 3 different nebulizer meds now I have a cold and I suspect a ear infection, and the sad thing is my dad sent me to school with a 102 fever and I'm still not getting better.
Quit smoking blunts
Mozilla Firefox is the best IMO. Google chrome is good but jumpy sometimes. Never have any problems with Mozilla.

Post 226 LOL!
Quoting JNCali:
It is illegal to send a student to public school our school district in CA if they had any fever, diarrhea or had vomited within 24 hours prior to start of day...
Thank God for Gov't intervention, whether the local, state, or national level. Oh its california. Sorry, my bad, not part of the US.

Quoting JNCali:
It is illegal to send a student to public school our school district in CA if they had any fever, diarrhea or had vomited within 24 hours prior to start of day...


Yeah they say that here too. But try not sending them to school. Then we parents are threatened with jail. I got that letter many times. I had one child who loved school. Did everything she was supposed to. Never gave anyone a minutes trouble. But she was sickly. And they gave her a hard time no end about her attendance. Which at times made me a lot closer to going to jail for more than just their threats. It's ridiculous! If I still had one in school they'd be home schooled on that alone.

Two in a tandem right now. But maybe Friday another devastating one will be over Germany (models still are struggling). I'll keep you tuned!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
6:00 AM JST December 14 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Island

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 5.8N 141.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 7.2N 136.3E - (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Mozilla Firefox is the best IMO. Google chrome is good but jumpy sometimes. Never have any problems with Mozilla.



I use ff too. and used to have no problem with WU. But I don't know what happened. WU turned on me. :( lol
Still 42,500 without power from the last storm to hit Scotland a few days ago.

No Kyoto for Canada Link
Quoting StormTracker2K:
My god by reading some of these post you would think the world is going to end tomorrow. As a once GREAT Blogger on here said DOOM!



It is, especially when Europe's system falls, and then everything will come into place like dominoes


is not a bad beta browser of firefox either.
China's Hu Reportedly Tells Navy to Get Ready for Military Combat


As tensions grow over local maritime disputes and U.S. influence in the South China Sea, China’s president said Tuesday that its navy should “make extended preparations for military combat,” the AFP reported.

President Hu Jintao told the Central Military Commission its navy should modernize in the interest of national security.

The Chinese navy has grown in recent years from a coastal protection force to one spanning the globe, sending ships as far as the Caribbean on goodwill missions and into the Mediterranean to escort vessels evacuating Chinese citizens from the fighting in Libya.

China said it is considering an offer from the Seychelles to host Chinese naval ships in the Indian Ocean island nation, highlighting the increasing global reach of a navy that recently launched its first aircraft carrier.

The navy also began sea trials in August for its first aircraft carrier, the former Soviet Varyag, towed from Ukraine in 1998 minus its engines, weaponry and navigation systems. China says the carrier is intended for research and training, leading to speculation that it plans to build future copies.

China's military expansion and strong assertions of claims to disputed territory have raised regional concerns, prompting many of China's neighbors to strengthen ties with the U.S. military that has traditionally predominated in the Asia Pacific.

While Beijing has tried to assuage those concerns, it has also asserted its claims with patrols and other physical displays, and on Tuesday dispatched its largest coast guard cutter to the East China Sea.

The 322-foot Haijian will visit Chinese rock outcroppings as well as a gas field claimed by China and Japan. There was no indication it planned to visit other islands that Japan controls but China claims.

George Little, a Pentagon spokesman, downplayed Hu’s comments, saying China has the right to develop its military, according to the report. But he went on to say China should be transparent in the process.

"We have repeatedly called for transparency from the Chinese and that's part of the relationship we're continuing to build with the Chinese military," Little said, according to the report.

firefox gone nuts with there upgrades they are not giveing there other firefox time too set in thats how they lost there # 1 spot has Google Chrome is now # 1
ya, I am up to firefox 11 with the updates every day now.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
6:00 AM JST December 14 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Island

At 21:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 5.8N 141.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 7.2N 136.3E - (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)


um, you mean TD 27?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


is not a bad beta browser of firefox either.

Never heard of it.
243. j2008
Quoting TampaSpin:
Not much in Winter Weather for the ConUs thus far this year!


I have to disagree, Arizona has been getting walloped the past few weeks,we have a pretty potent storm going through today, 1-2 inches possible this week. Cant stay so hope you all have a good evening. :)
Quoting StormTracker2K:
My god by reading some of these post you would think the world is going to end tomorrow. As a once GREAT Blogger on here said DOOM!


Weird is when you suddenly find out that three of NASA's primary North American facilities were hit by historic tropical systems over a period of only three years. These were not glancing blows either. As far as I can tell, these are the only U.S. military installations to take direct hits like this in such a short period of time, and there are far fewer of these bases than other branches of the military.

Personally, I think someone or thing is sending U.S. a message, but this curious fact is completely ignored, even here, despite the incredible actuarial odds.

Stennis - Katrina 2005
Canaveral - Fay 2008
Houston's Mission Control - Ike 2008

Doom would be if someone had correctly forecast all three events, including maps of exactly where landfall would take place. That'll get the attention of Homeland. ;)

But why listen to me ...

Arguably the greatest Man who ever lived, was never recorded in history, but He somehow managed to change history more than anyone. That should tell you a lot about why the facts above are being ignored by the media and everybody else.

Of this age He said, "It will be like the Days of Noah."

So when you see someone building a big boat, you can either ignore it, or asked to be on board when it sails.



Quoting barbamz:

Two in a tandem right now. But maybe Friday another devastating one will be over Germany (models still are struggling). I'll keep you tuned!


The one north of Scotland has an EYE!!!!!
Quoting Articuno:

Never heard of it.


It's alpha

Firefox 11.0a1 32-bit (Nightly)

Link
Dern ASCAT missed most, lol. anyway..
Quoting presslord:
Jeff Masters had a guest blogger a few years back (I can't recall his name) who stated that hurricane meteorology is simply "...an attempt to approximate chaos." That has stuck with me...and gives a pretty good perspective to what is discussed here.


I myself have compared hurricane meteorology to a water droplet traversing it's way down your windshield seeking the path of least resistance.

Even NOAA recognizes the power of the "old salt" mariner's 1,2,3 rule.

I would choose the word meander to describe hurricanes, or any weather system for that matter, instead of chaos. But, with your analogy I think chaos is a pretty darn good word.

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
9:00 AM JST December 14 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 5.7N 140.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 7.5N 135.5E - (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Quoting docrod:


It's alpha

Firefox 11.0a1 32-bit (Nightly)

Link


oh, I see it is alpha. I did not really notice that since it kept telling me "you're using the beta channel"
T.D.27 has that classic signature on satellite. Might end up being a big one...
Quoting hydrus:
T.D.27 has that classic signature on satellite. Might end up being a big one...


TD 27 could all so be get sheared a part by high wind shear
Quoting Tazmanian:


TD 27 could all so be get sheared a part by high wind shear

AFTER it crosses the southern Philippines.
TD27 has a decent sweet spot that it will be traveling through.

Plenty of warm water too..
Found this cool pic of the 1997 El-Nino....Huge..
Quoting hydrus:
Plenty of warm water too..


Well the dates of those images are in June 2009..so I doubt that the water is that warm....

Though they are still warm in the area 27W will be passing through.

Great winter retreat: Euro falls to 11-month low, more downgrades could be final death-blow
Posted on December 13, 2011
December 13, 2011 – BRUSSELS - The euro dropped to an 11-month low against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, with selling set to continue on concerns about a lack of unity among European nations to tackle the debt crisis and fears of more credit rating downgrades. Losses accelerated after the euro broke below its October low at $1.3145, followed by $1.31, and triggered a wave of automatic sell orders. Further key support levels lie around $1.30 and $1.2860, the 2011 low. ........ Read more....

Link
Just went out for my first long walk after surgery. Wish it was cooler, but it was nice getting out and seeing a lot of houses decorated.
Mid East keeps hot...

UPDATE 1-Iran army declines comment on MP's Hormuz exercise remarks Mon Dec 12, 2011 1:18pm GMT

TEHRAN Dec 12 (Reuters) - A member of the Iranian parliament's National Security Committee said on Monday that the military was set to practise its ability to close the Gulf to shipping at the narrow Strait of Hormuz, the most important oil transit channel in the world, but there was no official confirmation.

The legislator, Parviz Sarvari, told the student news agency ISNA: "Soon we will hold a military manoeuvre on how to close the Strait of Hormuz. If the world wants to make the region insecure, we will make the world insecure."

Link

There are certain black swan events that could cause prices to go through the roof. One is if theres some sort of military altercation with Iran. Most of the world9s oil crosses the strategically located Strait of Hormuz in the Arabian Gulf. In case of a standoff between the United States and its allies and Iran and its allies, theres a large risk that some of the oil transitioning through the Arabian Gulf will be trapped.

In this scenario, oil prices would experience the same effect as during the Arab oil embargo of the 1970s. Prices could skyrocket to $200/bbl or more with gas lines similar to those seen in America 40 years ago. A military confrontation with Iran that spills into the Arabian Gulf could send prices spiraling out of control.

Another scenario to keep an eye on is the euro-debt crisis. If the crisis isnt resolved and the eurozone implodes economically, it could have an unpredictable impact on prices..


Link
The Sun has mellowed a bit..
Quoting yqt1001:


Well the dates of those images are in June 2009..so I doubt that the water is that warm....

Though they are still warm in the area 27W will be passing through.

lol..My apologies. :)
SIGNIFICANT COMET PLUNGES TOWARD THE SUN: A comet nearly as wide as two football fields (200m) is plunging toward the sun where it will most likely be destroyed in a spectacular light show on Dec. 15/16. Although Comet Lovejoy (C/2011 W3) could become as bright as Jupiter or Venus when it "flames out," the glare of the sun will hide the event from human eyes. Solar observatories in space, however, will have a grand view. Yesterday the brightening comet entered the field of view of NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft:

http://spaceweather.com/
Aleutian Islands gettin a big storm...
Quoting sunlinepr:


Something about that tropical-like low near Bermuda tells me that Europe is in for many more massive windstorms on its shores.
WindSAT Data from 1900Z today...
Quoting theshepherd:


I myself have compared hurricane meteorology to a water droplet traversing it's way down your windshield seeking the path of least resistance.

Even NOAA recognizes the power of the "old salt" mariner's 1,2,3 rule.

I would choose the word meander to describe hurricanes, or any weather system for that matter, instead of chaos. But, with your analogy I think chaos is a pretty darn good word.

It may be chaos on the ground; however, the hurricane is working logically according to its own rules imo.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
9:00 AM JST December 14 2011
===============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1008 hPa) located at 6.0N 108.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest slowly
Quoting sunlinepr:
SIGNIFICANT COMET PLUNGES TOWARD THE SUN: A comet nearly as wide as two football fields (200m) is plunging toward the sun where it will most likely be destroyed in a spectacular light show on Dec. 15/16. Although Comet Lovejoy (C/2011 W3) could become as bright as Jupiter or Venus when it "flames out," the glare of the sun will hide the event from human eyes. Solar observatories in space, however, will have a grand view. Yesterday the brightening comet entered the field of view of NASA's STEREO-B spacecraft:

http://spaceweather.com/


Comet Lovejoy? More like Comet Killjoy! I was hoping it would blow up the sun!
275. BtnTx
So what is the preferred browser when using the iPad2?
can i get any volunteers to help me with the TWO on my website...all you gots to be able to do is update the time, and if there is an area of disturbed weather in the basins(which are in season lol)(under our judgment) just give a discussion on it and a few details, plus percentage. if any1 want to help, mail me.....
Quoting JNCali:
It is illegal to send a student to public school our school district in CA if they had any fever, diarrhea or had vomited within 24 hours prior to start of day...
I live in NY and go to private school and my dad has the harda** military style views so if I don't go in because of a fever I'm less of a son... Lol
Here is an interesting article about The World's Cleanest Air and where to find it.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25
12:00 PM JST December 14 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression Near Caroline Island

At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 5.7N 139.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 12 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 7.0N 135.0E - (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
fruitcake anyone?
Imagine spending millions in developing technology and being hacked and used by other country for free. You could even use a weather satellite to receive weather info. without investing big sums if you decipher the right signals. The posiblilities are many.... and it's part of the current Cyber war going on...



US, Israel shocked by undamaged captured drone
DEBKAfile Special Report December 8, 2011, 7:25 PM (GMT 02:00)
Tags: US-Israel Iran nuclear drones Intelligence covertwar
Iran displays captured US RQ-170 drone

Iran exhibited the top-secret US stealth drone RQ-170 Sentinel captured on Sunday, Dec. 4. Its almost perfect condition confirmed Tehran's claim that the UAV was downed by a cyber attack, meaning it was not shot down but brought in undamaged by an electronic warfare ambush.
This is a major debacle for the stealth technology the US uses in its warplanes and the drone technology developed by the US and Israel.

The state of the lost UAV refutes the US military contention that the Sentinel's systems malfunctioned. If this had happened, it would have crashed and either been wrecked or damaged. The condition of the RQ-170 intact obliges the US and Israel to make major changes in plans for a potential strike against Iran's nuclear program.

Earlier Thursday, debkafile reported: Link
Tsunamis on the rise?

A team of scientists say the recent series of terrifying natural disasters could signify the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes.

Video
Quoting bappit:

Kind of went down a rabbit hole on that. I think we can boil down Nea's reply to his last sentence.

"The Munich Re graph I produced in #173 doesn't refer at all to damage amounts or insured losses; it's just the plain numbers of natural disasters as defined by the UN."

I think sar's post qualifies as number 2 on the list of 38 ways to win any argument.

Use different meanings of your opponent%u2019s words to refute his argument.


Better read that again, Sluggo. Nea didn't clarify the alleged source of the Munich Re graph until after I asked him, after his first post. I'm perfectly capable of reading, a skill you should work on. Still haven't seen any refererence from Munich Re that these are just UN numbers. Also haven't seen any response to the question about a company like Munich Re wanting to have more loss-causing weather events as a reason to raise premiums. Every graph tells a story, but not all tell the truth. I'm not willing to accept one graph as proof that we've seen a steadily inceasing number of damaging weather events without knowing the definitions and who's doing the counting.
Quoting SPLbeater:


Mark 13:8 "For nation shall rise against nation, kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be earthquakes in divers places, and there shall be famines and troubles: these are the beginning of sorrows"


aint starting anything. just putting truth out :D


You weren't around for World War II, were you?

Magnitude
7.1
Date-Time
Wednesday, December 14, 2011 at 05:04:57 UTC
Wednesday, December 14, 2011 at 03:04:57 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
7.518°S, 146.767°E
Depth
121.2 km (75.3 miles)
Region
EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
Distances
89 km (55 miles) SSW of Lae, New Guinea, PNG
123 km (76 miles) ENE of Kerema, New Guinea, PNG
221 km (137 miles) NNW of PORT MORESBY, Papua New Guinea
2308 km (1434 miles) NNW of BRISBANE, Queensland, Australia
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 12.9 km (8.0 miles); depth +/- 6.2 km (3.9 miles)
Parameters
NST=470, Nph=482, Dmin=212.6 km, Rmss=0.76 sec, Gp= 11°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=9
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc00076e5
Quoting SPLbeater:


Mark 13:8 "For nation shall rise against nation, kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be earthquakes in divers places, and there shall be famines and troubles: these are the beginning of sorrows"


aint starting anything. just putting truth out :D


This sadly reminds me of one of my favourite Carl Sagan quotes:

Think of how many religions attempt to validate themselves with prophecy. Think of how many people rely on these prophecies, however vague, however unfulfilled, to support or prop up their beliefs. Yet has there ever been a religion with the prophetic accuracy and reliability of science?

Given the rather generic nature of that particular biblical "pearl" of wisdom, it's a wonder the world got beyond AD79, let alone the AD540s etc . . .
Quoting chimera245:


This sadly reminds me of one of my favourite Carl Sagan quotes:

Think of how many religions attempt to validate themselves with prophecy. Think of how many people rely on these prophecies, however vague, however unfulfilled, to support or prop up their beliefs. Yet has there ever been a religion with the prophetic accuracy and reliability of science?

Given the rather generic nature of that particular biblical "pearl" of wisdom, it's a wonder the world got beyond AD79, let alone the AD540s etc . . .


I predict a major hurricane will eventually hit New Orleans. When it happens, can I claim to be a prophet?

Good morning everyone! Above the source of concern in respect to night/morning of Friday. If that pans out a lot of fresh wood will be available, at least ...;-\
And it will be "right over my house", as often is said in this place. Have a nice day! Barb
Good Morning! Any one have any idea why post 255 was pulled? It had a +34 rating last night! Admins have no sense of humor at all? This place used to be more fun. It's not like the post was offensive even remotely! Blog not busy either. Sheesh...
Quoting KoritheMan:


I predict a major hurricane will eventually hit New Orleans. When it happens, can I claim to be a prophet?




If you pick the date accurately, then I'd say "yes"!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Good Morning! Any one have any idea why post 255 was pulled? It had a +34 rating last night! Admins have no sense of humor at all? This place used to be more fun. It's not like the post was offensive even remotely! Blog not busy either. Sheesh...


I have no idea why anyone found that offensive...this place is just ridiculous anymore...
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


+1000000!


You are right about that!!!!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Good Morning! Any one have any idea why post 255 was pulled? It had a +34 rating last night! Admins have no sense of humor at all? This place used to be more fun. It's not like the post was offensive even remotely! Blog not busy either. Sheesh...

For those of us who have to sleep whilst most of the fun is going on over on your side of the cauldron, we might ask? Has anybody got a copy of the post at 255? So as we can at least pulse the pasted copy, should we also recognise the significance of it.
Quoting tulsahurrcane:


I have no idea why anyone found that offensive...this place is just ridiculous anymore...



This place will never change. No wonder everyone left. I've spent my last $10.
Quoting scottiesaunt:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Happy Holidays and good health to all.
.
.
The Twelve Nights of Christmas bring to me:
.
.
Twelve trollers trolling
Eleven different Jasons
Ten Models Dooming
Nine loops of NOLA
Eight foot massages
Seven teen-age pro-mets
Six pack of Fresca
Five funny people
Four censored postings
Three pattern changes
Two guys in Georgia
And a storm doomed to hit MIAMI.

OMG SOOOOOO FUNNY. Time to bake another batch of Aqua's special brownies and go out in the rain and dance!!!
pull my comments all you want Jeff ima saint with the Lord behind me i aint stoppping.
Quoting SPLbeater:
pull my comments all you want Jeff ima saint with the Lord behind me i aint stoppping.


Jeff doesn't pull your comments. There are others here that do that.
Bar far the best post of the year!

Quoting Dodabear:


Jeff doesn't pull your comments. There are others here that do that.


yeah, im sure of that. i know a few. they think that im talking 'religious' and dont want to hear the truth. but, i have done my part and let the Lord handle it. funny how #288 was removed for violating community standards, and was a simple reply to another member. evidently somebody on here is screwed. oh well then, cuz i can post anything #2 time! :D
Quoting Dodabear:


Jeff doesn't pull your comments. There are others here that do that.

Incorrect.
Good Morning Scooter67.

Looks as if we in FL might get a COLD FRONT for Christmas.

well here is something so that i am 'on topic' in jeffs veiw...
Quoting IvanJackinogh:
Troll Alert: Dodabear & JFVinsideOfYou
dude no need to announce it. Just flag, report, and ignore the nimwits.
it would be cool if we had a computer system that could detect when a troll is present, lol
Rapid Retreat of Chile Glacier


Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks as if we in FL might get a COLD FRONT for Christmas.




How bout a deep-south snowstorm?
Today's US WX map.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



How bout a deep-south snowstorm?


I don't see that happening but the coldest air of the season maybe coming next weekend for the SE US.
Quoting mistymountainhop:
dude no need to announce it. Just flag, report, and ignore the nimwits.


Look at his username. I think he may be the troll.... And besides, how does someone with that join date know about JFV and Jason? They haven't been on here trolling in months....
Lot's of cold wx in Asia soon to slide toward the CON US come later next week. Get ready folks this is some extremely cold air coming!

Quoting Coldwellrnd:
I see StormTracker2K how you operate now. Pad your numbers with approximately 350 comments of nonsense and the same old BS weather maps we see from you on a daily basis before you begin your AGW campaign.

Rack up blog numbers to full others of your supreme credibility before the AGW BS comes out and starts working toward that Neapolitan-Skyepony anti-capitalist agenda.

Really smart there. Really smart. One problem. It feel a bit short.

Good try.

Play again sometime.


Seriously?
Rule #1 of the Rules of the Road:
Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


Seriously?
Rule #1 of the Rules of the Road:
Keep it civil. Personal attacks, bickering, flaming, and general trollish behavior will not be tolerated.



Thank you! Some people have lots of hate in them.
Looks as if our Scotland system is weakening.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:



How bout a deep-south snowstorm?
It'd be nice to get some kind of cooling; here in South Florida, at least, it's been very mild for quite a while, with no deep cold snaps as we would have usually seen by now. In fact, Naples hasn't dropped below 50 yet, which is unusual (though by no means unprecedented). We've been at or above normal 10 of this month's 13 days, as we were over 14 of the last 17 days of November, meaning 24 of the past 30 days have been warmer to much warmer than normal.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Look at his username. I think he may be the troll.... And besides, how does someone with that join date know about JFV and Jason? They haven't been on here trolling in months....

It's an old member circumventing a ban--the same person to whom you replied, and the author of 321. Do what you'd like, but I don't even bother responding; I just report and ignore, as the man says...
Quoting kaiden:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
Happy Holidays and good health to all.
.
.
The Twelve Nights of Christmas bring to me:
.
.
Twelve trollers trolling
Eleven different Jasons
Ten Models Dooming
Nine loops of NOLA
Eight foot massages
Seven teen-age pro-mets
Six pack of Fresca
Five funny people
Four censored postings
Three pattern changes
Two guys in Georgia
And a storm doomed to hit MIAMI.

A true Christmas classic... Good job cos
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks as if we in FL might get a COLD FRONT for Christmas.



The ECMWF has a totally different pattern at 240 hours than either the Canadian or GFS. I've noticed this a few times recently where the GFS tries to break the subtropical ridge too much in the extended time frame. At some point the pattern will break, but the ECMWF probably has a better track record in the past month or so. Let's see if in the coming days the ECMWF trends towards the GFS, or vice-versa. Still pretty far out in time.

The GFS ensemble mean shows a ridge in the west and a trough central and east, but the magnitude is highly in question right now.

Adrian
Quoting hurricane23:


The ECMWF has a totally different pattern at 240 hours than either the Canadian or GFS. I've noticed this a few times recently where the GFS tries to break the subtropical ridge too much in the extended time frame. At some point the pattern will break, but the ECMWF probably has a better track record in the past month or so. Let's see if in the coming days the ECMWF trends towards the GFS, or vice-versa. Still pretty far out in time.

The GFS ensemble mean shows a ridge in the west and a trough central and east, but the magnitude is highly in question right now.

Adrian


Great post Adrian. I agree with you but that is some serious cold wx blanketing most of Asia right now and it's just a matter of time before that cold works it's way over to the US.

im going to go and peel my an orange fer breakfast. be back at....the time im done with breafkast!
Quoting mistymountainhop:

Incorrect.


I once asked Jeff why one of my comments was pulled. He was not aware of it and I had to explain what my comment contained. He said he was not sure why my comment was pulled and other similar comments by others were not. I told him that I did not care if others' comments were not pulled. I just wanted to know what triggered my comment getting pulled. In other words, Jeff is not behind all comments being pulled.
Quoting IvanJackinogh:
Troll Alert: Dodabear
? So someone joined in 2001 with the plan of trolling in 2011?

Dodabear has been a member longer than some of you have been alive...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


I once asked Jeff why one of my comments was pulled. He was not aware of it and I had to explain what my comment contained. He said he was not sure why my comment was pulled and other similar comments by others were not. I told him that I did not care if others' comments were not pulled. I just wanted to know what triggered my comment getting pulled. In other words, Jeff is not behind all comments being pulled.


I rarely delete comments and ban users, it is true, but I will do so in obvious troll cases. We have several admins that I leave the banning/deleting to.

Jeff Masters
Some unusual color on the blog today, save the religious stuff..Lookin mighty unsettled in the middle of the U.S. this morning..They took the slight risk out tho..
Effects of Global Warming on Polar Bears:

Global warming is melting the polar ice caps, robbing polar bears of the ice floes they need to hunt prey. As the annual sea ice melts, polar bears are forced ashore to spend their summers fasting. If the Arctic ice cap continues to melt sooner and form later, polar bears will become too thin to reproduce and they will become extinct by the end of this century.

The polar bear's home – the Arctic – is experiencing the effects of global warming more than any other place. Temperatures in the Arctic are rising at almost twice the rate of that of the rest of the world, and this is threatening to place the entire Arctic ecosystem in jeopardy.

Arctic sea ice is shrinking by what appears to be a greater rate every year – sea ice that not only provides hunting ground for polar bears, but shelter and transportation for seals, walrus, arctic foxes, and the Inuit people. The underside provides a surface for algae that support cod, char, beluga, and narwhal. The white sea ice also has a cooling effect on climate by reflecting light away from Earth's surface. As it melts, the global warming advances even more quickly.

CosmicEvents, I'll have to save that one and re-post in September - just before Miami is flattened, again. :)

StormTracker, you and I don't agree on everything, but I find a lot of the maps and satellite photos you post very useful. As long as everyone gets their say on things like AGW without making a bunch of ad hominem attacks, I'm happy. All you youngsters here on the blog will find out who's right. I guess us old geezers will too, just from a different place.

This high over the Southeast has been really strong, exceptionally so for down here. The barometer last night was 30.52, something I expect to see in places like Colorado. It's down to 30.43 this morning, so I'm hoping this front approaching from the west will finally get the high moving.

Really high pressure gets the arthritis in my neck started (another thing you kiddies will find about, along AGW) and I've had a weird upper respiratory infection for the past week. Coughed up about two and half lungs but no other symptoms except general body aches and pains and a good case of laryngitis. It's clearly some sort of virus and seems to be getting better, but hope you folks don't get it for Christmas. No real cold air on the horizon for us, so I don't think we'll have a white Christmas. As long as we don't get any New Year's tornados, that will be just fine by me. ;)
Quoting sar2401:
CosmicEvents, I'll have to save that one and re-post in September - just before Miami is flattened, again. :)

StormTracker, you and I don't agree on everything, but I find a lot of the maps and satellite photos you post very useful. As long as everyone gets their say on things like AGW without making a bunch of ad hominem attacks, I'm happy. All you youngsters here on the blog will find out who's right. I guess us old geezers will too, just from a different place.

This high over the Southeast has been really strong, exceptionally so for down here. The barometer last night was 30.52, something I expect to see in places like Colorado. It's down to 30.43 this morning, so I'm hoping this front approaching from the west will finally get the high moving.

Really high pressure gets the arthritis in my neck started (another thing you kiddies will find about, along AGW) and I've had a weird upper respiratory infection for the past week. Coughed up about two and half lungs but no other symptoms except general body aches and pains and a good case of laryngitis. It's clearly some sort of virus and seems to be getting better, but hope you folks don't get it for Christmas. No real cold air on the horizon for us, so I don't think we'll have a white Christmas. As long as we don't get any New Year's tornados, that will be just fine by me. ;)
Where do you live sar2401?
Quoting sar2401:
CosmicEvents, I'll have to save that one and re-post in September - just before Miami is flattened, again. :)

StormTracker, you and I don't agree on everything, but I find a lot of the maps and satellite photos you post very useful. As long as everyone gets their say on things like AGW without making a bunch of ad hominem attacks, I'm happy. All you youngsters here on the blog will find out who's right. I guess us old geezers will too, just from a different place.

This high over the Southeast has been really strong, exceptionally so for down here. The barometer last night was 30.52, something I expect to see in places like Colorado. It's down to 30.43 this morning, so I'm hoping this front approaching from the west will finally get the high moving.

Really high pressure gets the arthritis in my neck started (another thing you kiddies will find about, along AGW) and I've had a weird upper respiratory infection for the past week. Coughed up about two and half lungs but no other symptoms except general body aches and pains and a good case of laryngitis. It's clearly some sort of virus and seems to be getting better, but hope you folks don't get it for Christmas. No real cold air on the horizon for us, so I don't think we'll have a white Christmas. As long as we don't get any New Year's tornados, that will be just fine by me. ;)


old geezers RULE!!! my grandfather knows just bout everything about farming and farm equipment there is to know, lol
another thing noone has ever told me and i never asked- what does AGW stand fo?
Something interesting, and tied to the subject of the current blog entry: a distrubing--though not unsurprising--new study has just been published that shows warming continuing "at a steady rate". In the article--published in the journal Environmental Research Letters--raw data from three surface temperature records and two lower-troposhere temperature records have been analyzed, and then, more importantly, "adjusted to remove the estimated impact of known factors on short-term temperature variations (El Niño/southern oscillation, volcanic aerosols and solar variability)". In other words, once the "noise" is removed, as climate scientists have been saying all along, "the global warming signal becomes even more evident". In the second graph below, note that, as the abstract says, 2009 and 2010 are the two hottest years (2011 data is not included). Yikes...

Cooling? Ha!

Cooling? Ha!
A nice forecast for tomorrow...



High of -10C while a low of 0C. Gonna be a fun day. :P

Well actually, in this case Environment Canada uses the low temperature as the highest temperature at night and the highs as the lowest temperature during the day.

Last time this happened we had a flash freeze day and so no school! :D I'm kinda hoping that this happens again.
Quoting JeffMasters:


I rarely delete comments and ban users, it is true, but I will do so in obvious troll cases. We have several admins that I leave the banning/deleting to.

Jeff Masters



They do a very poor job of that decision making Dr. Masters IMO! You might want to evaluate the process. Just my opinion tho!
nice flare
Quoting SPLbeater:
nice flare
And it has the mean green..
If we don't get our Global Debt under control....Control measures of Human Caused Global Warming will spiral out of control. That could become then very scary!

Quoting AussieStorm:
Tsunamis on the rise?

A team of scientists say the recent series of terrifying natural disasters could signify the beginning of a new cycle of large earthquakes.

Video


Aussie, interesting video. I really think one of the main goals should be to reduce the number of false warnings. We'd always have to go down and clear the beach for every warning and, except for a two or three inch rise in ocean level, nothing would happen. That made it much harder to convince to people to get off the beach next time, and we only have a relatively small number of deputies and park rangers for over 100 miles of coastline. We have one area in Sonoma County, CA, where the Russian River meets the Pacific. It's one of the most popular beaches and it's packed on weekends. The trouble is that geologists tell us that, given the offshore topgraphy, the delta area would be subject to a 20-22 foot tsunami under the right conditions. We do our best to clear the area, but everyone just goes back in behind us. If we had to do this less often, and could tell people there was a high probability they'd be killed if they stayed there, that would really help. Right now, no one believes they are in any real danger and we are just being annoying.
Quoting TampaSpin:
If we don't get our Global Debt under control....Control measures of Human Caused Global Warming will spiral out of control. That could become then very scary!



That's what cracks me up, we have to do this do that to stop AGW, do people not understand....there is no money to do anything anymore! bottom line is....we're all going to die.
Quoting hydrus:
Where do you live sar2401?


I live in Prattville Alabama, about 10 miles from Montgomery, the state capital. Gets a little warm in the summer (!) but the winters are usually pleasant. After 35 years in California, this is really a nice place by comparison. People are still decent and courteous, and they won't just step over you if you're lying on the sidewalk. I've been here almost six years and really like it.
Instead we spend money sending high level officials to these AGW meetings and wining and dining them and talking and talking....nuttin gets done, it's a vacation for them.
Quoting RitaEvac:


That's what cracks me up, we have to do this do that to stop AGW, do people not understand....there is no money to do anything anymore! bottom line is....we're all going to die.



Exactly.....We have Spent to the limits.....!!!! Its not to hard to understand as a Country and world, you can't keep spending more than you take in.....What is next! TAX US TO DEATH....then we Die!
Quoting TampaSpin:



Exactly.....We have Spent to the limits.....!!!! Its not to hard to understand as a Country and world, you can't keep spending more than you take in.....What is next! TAX US TO DEATH....then we Die!


Nothing is going to be done, just hunker down and watch....
Quoting SPLbeater:
another thing noone has ever told me and i never asked- what does AGW stand fo?



Anti-Global-Warming


or


Angry-Global-Whiners........LOL
Enjoy this Christmas and the holidays, because after this everything is gonna change....in big bad way
Quoting SPLbeater:
another thing noone has ever told me and i never asked- what does AGW stand fo?


AGW stands for Anthropogenic (man-caused) Global Warming. This is really not a very precise term, since the real issue is climate change, and warming is just part of climate change. I guess it should really be ACC, but AGW has been more or less adoped on both sides of the issue.

Thanks for the kind words about geezers, but I'm afraid I know nothing about farm equipement. :) I do know a lot about model trains, though, and have a fair size model railroad that keeps me busy. I'm also a ham radio operator, and enjoy talking to people from around the world - actual talking, not texting or e-mailing. It's a little more of a challenge.
Quoting TampaSpin:



Anti-Global-Warming


or


Angry-Global-Whiners........LOL


i think-for fact- the first definiton is the truth :D
Quoting sar2401:


AGW stands for Anthropogenic (man-caused) Global Warming. This is really not a very precise term, since the real issue is climate change, and warming is just part of climate change. I guess it should really be ACC, but AGW has been more or less adoped on both sides of the issue.

Thanks for the kind words about geezers, but I'm afraid I know nothing about farm equipement. :) I do know a lot about model trains, though, and have a fair size model railroad that keeps me busy. I'm also a ham radio operator, and enjoy talking to people from around the world - actual talking, not texting or e-mailing. It's a little more of a challenge.


go to my youtube channel and u find a vid i took up close to a Atlantic & Western diesel passing by. i had adreneline pumpin lol. here

Link to da vid :D

(i am amature video maker so dont expect something worthy of a show lol, but its decent)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Enjoy this Christmas and the holidays, because after this everything is gonna change....in big bad way



Afraid SO....Europe is about to Collapse big time and Nothing can save it.....it takes the world with it! Everyone depends so much now on other Countries for exports and imports. When this all goes because the inability of Credit then all stops. Its gonna be a changed world very soon. Some fear more extreme than others but, things won't goes as status Qua in 2012!

Something to seriously think about is IRAN and its NUKES....this is gonna throw a big wrinkle in the Global problems coming this spring very soon....STAY TUNED!

BT Weather....chances don't look great for a White Christmas for the MidWest and NorthEast.
The birth and eventual path of an individual storm (hurricane) is dependent on short-term weather patterns -- the position of the jet stream or the presence of a cold front.

Those day-to-day weather patterns are very fluid and have a tremendous impact on the strength and track of a specific storm

It's begining to look a lot like....Labor Day?


This is going to be "nice" in Europe ...
BBC-Video-forecast
More later, greetings, I have to go.
Quoting SPLbeater:


go to my youtube channel and u find a vid i took up close to a Atlantic & Western diesel passing by. i had adreneline pumpin lol. here

Link to da vid :D

(i am amature video maker so dont expect something worthy of a show lol, but its decent)


Is that your email, posted on your site?

Any questions or comments, email me at joniscoolman@yahoo.com .

Link
Quoting sar2401:


I live in Prattville Alabama, about 10 miles from Montgomery, the state capital. Gets a little warm in the summer (!) but the winters are usually pleasant. After 35 years in California, this is really a nice place by comparison. People are still decent and courteous, and they won't just step over you if you're lying on the sidewalk. I've been here almost six years and really like it.
I asked because you mentioned unusual high pressure in your area and how it affected your arthritis which I have. The weather here in Middle Tennessee causes more problems for me as opposed to South Florida. I hope there are no tornadoes too. We have had our share around here. I have never been to California and will try to visit there one day. Cant wait to check out a redwood forest.
Quoting sunlinepr:


Is that your email, posted on your site?

Any questions or comments, email me at joniscoolman@yahoo.com .

Link


yes dats it. i got another one thats privatem but yes thats my email that ANYBODY can email me :D

i named it that cuz before i had an account here years ago, i saw a member titled 'jasoniscoolman' and i thought that was funny, so i made am email like that:D didnt copy, was inspired lol
27 is getting better organized..
NEW BLOG, dont be late LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:



They do a very poor job of that decision making Dr. Masters IMO! You might want to evaluate the process. Just my opinion tho!


Dr Masters may want to evaluate the people that he has given admin authority to.
Jeff -- How would you explain the connection between SW drought and NE heavy precipitation?

Is this accurate, as a simple summary:

"Warmer temperatures accelerate evaporation in the SW. Prevailing winds blow that moisture-laden air eastward, resulting in heavier precipitation in the NE."

If now, how would your refine that statement?