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Wet, windy Nor'easter slams Northeast; season's first Category 5 storm is Ului

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:25 PM GMT on March 15, 2010

An extremely wet and windy Nor'easter whipped through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern U.S. over the weekend, dropping rains in excess of six inches over some regions, and driving high winds gusting near hurricane force. On Saturday afternoon, JFK Airport in New York City recorded sustained winds of 45 mph, gusting to hurricane force--75 mph. Soils already saturated from run-off due to all the melting snow from the heavy winter snows have been unable to absorb the heavy rains. As a result, there is widespread minor to moderate river flooding, and many power poles have toppled due to the high winds and wet soil. Over half a million people were without power in the region over the weekend. The Nor'easter will continue to bring strong winds and moderate rain to the region today, then gradually weaken and move away from the Northeast on Tuesday.


Figure 1. Estimated precipitation from the weekend Nor'easter over the Northeast. Rainfall amounts in excess of six inches (pink colors) occurred in New York and Connecticut.

Ului: first Category 5 storm of the year
The first Category 5 tropical cyclone of the year has arrived. Over the weekend, Tropical Cyclone Uliu intensified into a lower-end Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds in the open waters of the South Pacific, east of Australia. Ului has weakened slightly into a still-powerful Category 4 storm with 150 mph, but is projected to significantly decay as the week progresses, due to high wind shear. Some of the models foresee that Ului will be a long-range threat to the Queensland coast of Australia by the end of the week, but the storm should be in a much weakened state by then, and may also turn out to sea without hitting land. Australia has had a remarkably easy hurricane season so far--no tropical cyclones entered Australian waters during the month of February, the first time that has happened since 1944. That would be equivalent to the U.S. having no tropical storms near our coast in the hurricane-prone month of August.


Figure 1. Tropical Cyclone Ului at peak strength at 22:22 UTC Saturday, March 13. At the time, Ului was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds and a minimum pressure of 918 mb. Image credit: NRL Monterey.

Tropical Cyclone Tomas
Meanwhile, Category 3 Tropical Cyclone Tomas is causing trouble in the Fiji Islands, where the cyclone's 125-mph sustained winds are being felt in the less populated eastern islands. Tomas has already claimed one life, ripped off roofs, and caused extensive power outages in the Fiji Islands, according to news reports. However, the cyclone is missing the two largest and most populated islands.

I'll have a new post on Tuesday.
Jeff Masters

Flood Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Morning!
Just read that 500,000's were without power from the winter storm... as Dr. M stated.
I spent the weekend enjoying the first real Spring weather we've had. Finally warming up!
I can testify to the nasty weather her in new England. Our radar here in Dover NH has us over 5 in of rain
thanks for the updated.
15-MAR-2010 12:37:51 44.20 -129.26 4.6 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
13-MAR-2010 05:20:17 44.26 -129.32 4.2 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
13-MAR-2010 04:53:41 44.36 -129.26 4.9 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
12-MAR-2010 20:31:23 44.36 -129.17 4.3 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
12-MAR-2010 18:29:57 44.45 -129.35 4.2 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON


I fear the big one is coming soon along the ConUS! JUst my Opinion!


That Nor'Easter really smacked us good in the tri-state area. 5"+ rain. Many 70mph wind gusts. A lot of damage. Thousands of trees down for sure. Hundreds of power poles. A lot of people still without power. A lot of flooding. Houses lost siding, shingles, gutters, their flagpoles. Grills, lawn furniture, garbage pails were flung all over the place.

Pretty much typical with what you would find with a Cat 1 hurricane hitting this region.

NWS dropped the ball on advisories. We had a wind advisory out for 50mph gusts and by the time they upgraded to a high wind warning (430pm) we had already sustained the damage.

5"+ of rain sounds about right. It's still raining here.

Looking forward to spring and the low 60s starting tomorrow afternoon.
Howdy from the mtns of northern NM where the snow never seems to stop. Every other night we get a fresh inch or two. Lived here all my life and dont remember anything like it. Man...am I looking forward to spring.

Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
Quoting TampaSpin:
15-MAR-2010 12:37:51 44.20 -129.26 4.6 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
13-MAR-2010 05:20:17 44.26 -129.32 4.2 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
13-MAR-2010 04:53:41 44.36 -129.26 4.9 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
12-MAR-2010 20:31:23 44.36 -129.17 4.3 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
12-MAR-2010 18:29:57 44.45 -129.35 4.2 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON


I fear the big one is coming soon along the ConUS! JUst my Opinion!


I agree. You just look at the Haiti EQ and how along that fault had several EQs in either direction.

Now you look at the west coast subduction zone from Chile to Alaska and you can see you had Chile, then Argentina, then Mexico, now Oregon.

IMO - the whole fault line is unstable. What I fear about "big one" is not a localized event but an entire unzipping of a thousand miles or more of the fault at once. So you'd essentially have dozens if not hundreds of 8.0-9.0 EQs as the whole fault line unzipped at once.

That is a real fear and a real possibility. A number of these could potentially be considered PRE-shocks.


We just don't know for the last time it happened...we weren't here. (west coast).

Plenty of evidence throughout the Pacific basin shows it has happened in the past. The far east has records of it.

As they always say? It's not IF...it's WHEN.

Re: 4

Tampaspin...I'm curious what you are basing your opinion on. I ask because you may know much more than myself. I heard a story on NPR last week about the increasing opinion among some scientists that quakes in one area can trigger quakes thousands of miles away - even months later. So to a cetain extent I wouldnt be surprised. Terrible thought tho.
RE: 7

Scary thought P451. But has that kind of enormous, wide-ranging "unzipping" really happened in the past?
I've gone over 8" here in eastern Mass.Anybody know where I can be a do-it-yourself ark kit?
Here is the seismic record for the 12:37 Mag 4.6 off Oregon:

Below is up to one hour of vertical data from selected stations for starting at 2010-03-15 12:00 UT
Oops - that did not work. I'll try to find a link to the last "Big one" off the N.E. Pacific coast -
January 1700
I don't know, for the most part all the earthquake activity has fallen within bound of the normals patterns experience in nature. The media has sensationalized earthquakes ever since the unfortunate events in Haiti and the subsequent underwhelming tsunami event from the 8.8 Chile quake.

It used to be that 4.0's and below were earth tremors or temblors ... but now a random 4.4 gets an EARTHQUAKE headline on CNN and NPR. That's sensationalism. While I'm a big advocate of prevention and awareness, the drumming caused by the media and their speculations have now triggered a rash wave of fatalism.

A big one is coming, that's 100% guaranteed, whether this big one is going to be this night-mare scenario ... no one knows ... and until it hits ... building codes need updated to maximize efficiencies and the population must be educated to maximize life saving efforts.
Here is a link to one study of "the Big One":
http://records.viu.ca/~earles/1700quake/
Quoting lickitysplit:
Re: 4

Tampaspin...I'm curious what you are basing your opinion on. I ask because you may know much more than myself. I heard a story on NPR last week about the increasing opinion among some scientists that quakes in one area can trigger quakes thousands of miles away - even months later. So to a cetain extent I wouldnt be surprised. Terrible thought tho.


I truly have no Scientific Knowledege except to observe what has been happening in the Ring of Fire. The lapse of much activity above 5.0 along the ConUS west Coast when looking at the graphic i posted to me is very eye opening. I am just looking at trying to analyze to the extent that where pressure is released somewhere pressure is placed somewhere else. Pressure has been released all around the Ring of Fire except along the ConUs west coast. Just my Opinion!
Morning/Afternoon Aussie
The Models are not showing much, but that second Low near North Texas and the interaction of the SubTropical Jet might be a player coming. Although Models are not showing anything yet but, just something to watch.

El Nino is not in a hurry to go away.Read the latest CPC update.

Link
Link to this morning's seismic record:
http://earthquakescanada.nrcan.gc.ca/stndon/wf-fo/index-eng.php?day=15&filter=autoscaled&month=03&s tation=first&tpl_region=swbc&type=network&year=2010&hour=12#SECTION_1
Quoting TampaSpin:
15-MAR-2010 12:37:51 44.20 -129.26 4.6 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
13-MAR-2010 05:20:17 44.26 -129.32 4.2 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
13-MAR-2010 04:53:41 44.36 -129.26 4.9 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
12-MAR-2010 20:31:23 44.36 -129.17 4.3 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON
12-MAR-2010 18:29:57 44.45 -129.35 4.2 10.0 OFF COAST OF OREGON


I fear the big one is coming soon along the ConUS! JUst my Opinion!




these are right next to axial volcano
RE: 14 and 18

Thank you for the response! Intersting as heck.
From Wikipedia:
The 1700 Cascadia earthquake was a magnitude 8.7 to 9.2 megathrust earthquake that occurred in the Cascadia subduction zone in 1700.[1] The earthquake involved the Juan de Fuca Plate underlying the Pacific ocean, from mid-Vancouver Island in British Columbia, southwest Canada, along the Pacific Northwest coast. The length of the fault rupture was about 1000 kilometers (600 miles) with an average slip of 20 meters.
The earthquake caused a tsunami that struck the coast of Japan,[2] and may also be linked to the Bonneville slide.[3]
Quoting P451:


I agree. You just look at the Haiti EQ and how along that fault had several EQs in either direction.

Now you look at the west coast subduction zone from Chile to Alaska and you can see you had Chile, then Argentina, then Mexico, now Oregon.

IMO - the whole fault line is unstable. What I fear about "big one" is not a localized event but an entire unzipping of a thousand miles or more of the fault at once. So you'd essentially have dozens if not hundreds of 8.0-9.0 EQs as the whole fault line unzipped at once.

That is a real fear and a real possibility. A number of these could potentially be considered PRE-shocks.


We just don't know for the last time it happened...we weren't here. (west coast).

Plenty of evidence throughout the Pacific basin shows it has happened in the past. The far east has records of it.

As they always say? It's not IF...it's WHEN.



The "unzipping" of faults to that extent is very rare; in addition, the fault zones are not connected but are separate entities unto themselves...that's not to say that a large earthquake in one area of the world couldn't effect other fault zones; I think to some greater or lesser degrtee the Chilean quake did that, but it didn't trigger a series of "big ones", attesting to the complexity of these systems and their isolation from each other.

I've been seeing a bunch of "predictions" of large quakes none of which have come true and my geologist friends can tell you why; there is no way to predict earthquakes, long or short term...we just don't know enough to be able to do that reliably. Anyone that says they can are either mis-guided or they are charlatans
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Models are not showing much, but that second Low near North Texas and the interaction of the SubTropical Jet might be a player coming. Although Models are not showing anything yet but, just something to watch.



Hey,Tim,just don't send anything more for us for a while,or we'll just float away.
Quoting NEwxguy:


Hey,Tim,just don't send anything more for us for a while,or we'll just float away.


I guess you are paying for that mild winter you all had?
Is there any interest in having a March maddness College Basketball Pool with half Charity donation going to PortLight.......Let me know and i will set it up today if we can get at least 10 people that would like to play with a $10.00 donation! Let me know ASAP!
Quoting TampaSpin:


I guess you are paying for that mild winter you all had?


Yeh,I guess,not too crazy about the way Mother Nature balances things.Do you see anything in the future on the east coast?
As flood mentioned, it is VERY unlikely that "thousands of miles" of fault could un-zip. The Cascadia subduction zone is an entity to itself, and to the north and south of the zone, the faulting is transform, not subduction. (transform faults move side-by-side, where subduction faults move one under the other). Two entirely different motions, which do not cause others to move in tandem. A release of pressure on a subduction area is very unlikely to cause a transform fault to release. It just doesn't happen.

That said, if the Cascadia subduction zone lets loose... we are still looking at a 8.5-9.2 quake. It won't be pretty from about San Francisco all the way up to Vancouver.
Quoting jeffs713:
As flood mentioned, it is VERY unlikely that "thousands of miles" of fault could un-zip. The Cascadia subduction zone is an entity to itself, and to the north and south of the zone, the faulting is transform, not subduction. (transform faults move side-by-side, where subduction faults move one under the other). Two entirely different motions, which do not cause others to move in tandem. A release of pressure on a subduction area is very unlikely to cause a transform fault to release. It just doesn't happen.

That said, if the Cascadia subduction zone lets loose... we are still looking at a 8.5-9.2 quake. It won't be pretty from about San Francisco all the way up to Vancouver.


Exactly; in the event of something like that happening we could very well see some energy being released in the transform faults adjacent to the subduction zone if only because of the transfer of energy through surface "t" and "s" waves...any quake over an 8 or so is an "all bets are off" scenario, really, due the vast amount of energy released
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
El Nino is not in a hurry to go away.Read the latest CPC update.

Link


A majority of the models indicate that the Nio-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.%u2022The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010 and persisting into the Fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Nio conditions or the development of La Nia conditions during the Fall.

I agree with Storm...not gonna happen.
2010 Central Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Conference

Presented by C4G and NOAA


March 16th & 17th, 2010 at the Lod Cook Alumni Center
Good Day! Tropical gardener here in Zone 10 (Cape Coral), hoping some of our Wunderground friends in the Caribbean can fill me in on names of some hurricane-resistant trees that grow fairly quickly. I'm on an empty property and would like to both shade my house and provide protection from winter winds for smaller, more tender (Zone 11 and up) tropicals in my backyard.

Up here, the most widely planted wind-resistant tree is the live oak, but they are too slow and too broad-canopied for my use. Mahogany is okay and seems to do better here on the Cape with our warmer winters, but I'd like a bit of variety; mahogany is also a bit slower than I'd like. I'm thinking of trying a balsa-wood tree or two; it's a very light but strong wood, as I understand it.

South Florida is full of fast-growing, commonly planted trees like ficus and scheffelera, but all of them are prone to toppling in high winds. Tabebuias, from what I've seen, snap off major limbs even in strong cold fronts and moderate thunderstorms.

Again, I'm also trying to avoid putting in something that is going to shade out half the property all by itself (like poinciana trees).

Any help would be much appreciated!!
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Good Day! Tropical gardener here in Zone 10 (Cape Coral), hoping some of our Wunderground friends in the Caribbean can fill me in on names of some hurricane-resistant trees that grow fairly quickly. I'm on an empty property and would like to both shade my house and provide protection from winter winds for smaller, more tender (Zone 11 and up) tropicals in my backyard.

Up here, the most widely planted wind-resistant tree is the live oak, but they are too slow and too broad-canopied for my use. Mahogany is okay and seems to do better here on the Cape with our warmer winters, but I'd like a bit of variety; mahogany is also a bit slower than I'd like. I'm thinking of trying a balsa-wood tree or two; it's a very light but strong wood, as I understand it.

South Florida is full of fast-growing, commonly planted trees like ficus and scheffelera, but all of them are prone to toppling in high winds. Tabebuias, from what I've seen, snap off major limbs even in strong cold fronts and moderate thunderstorms.

Again, I'm also trying to avoid putting in something that is going to shade out half the property all by itself (like poinciana trees).

Any help would be much appreciated!!


Try magnolia tree's, they block the wind pretty good, not to wide, dont need tons of water, put out nice big flowers, and take high winds very well. Very sturdy trees, i've personally seen them, take 100 mph winds no problem, barely lots any limbs.

But there are a couple of types.
OG,

Looks like you have a good grasp of what I know about strong, wind resistant trees. (Live Oaks work best up here in North Florida. I haven't seen a combination of Fast, Strong, Small Canopy. It would need leaves to make food to grow fast or strong.
Southern Magnolias do have a big taproot, medium fast growers, but big leaves.
Quoting Levi32:


A majority of the models indicate that the Ni%uFFFDo-3.4 temperature departures will gradually decrease at least into the summer.%u2022The models are split with the majority indicating ENSO-neutral conditions by May-July 2010 and persisting into the Fall. Several models also suggest the potential of continued El Ni%uFFFDo conditions or the development of La Ni%uFFFDa conditions during the Fall.

I agree with Storm...not gonna happen.


Hey Levi...

2010 will likely be an above average season in line with past historical trends -- above average seasons typically follow below average El Nino seasons. How intense the storms will be will depend on vertical shear and mid-level dry air conditions, and how well organized/intense the tropical waves are when they come off of Africa. The latter three no one knows about this far in advance, and conditions can change within the season itself.

I do, however, feel that we will see an early season TC form in the Caribbean Sea in June.
38. JRRP


warmer
Quoting JRRP:


warmer


It's going to be an interesting ride this year...
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Good Day! Tropical gardener here in Zone 10 (Cape Coral), hoping some of our Wunderground friends in the Caribbean can fill me in on names of some hurricane-resistant trees that grow fairly quickly. I'm on an empty property and would like to both shade my house and provide protection from winter winds for smaller, more tender (Zone 11 and up) tropicals in my backyard.

Up here, the most widely planted wind-resistant tree is the live oak, but they are too slow and too broad-canopied for my use. Mahogany is okay and seems to do better here on the Cape with our warmer winters, but I'd like a bit of variety; mahogany is also a bit slower than I'd like. I'm thinking of trying a balsa-wood tree or two; it's a very light but strong wood, as I understand it.

South Florida is full of fast-growing, commonly planted trees like ficus and scheffelera, but all of them are prone to toppling in high winds. Tabebuias, from what I've seen, snap off major limbs even in strong cold fronts and moderate thunderstorms.

Again, I'm also trying to avoid putting in something that is going to shade out half the property all by itself (like poinciana trees).

Any help would be much appreciated!!

Sweet Gums are common here in Houston, and very hurricane-resistant. (they bend well, and grow pretty fast). Oaks are also good, but as you mentioned, they grow slowly. As several others have mentioned, Magnolias are well-suited for what you need, except they aren't the best shade trees.

One trick I have learned is to get some "free estimates" from local landscaping companies.. even a free estimate can give you a wealth of ideas.
yo Jerry....

:)
As far as SST's so far, I'm pretty amazed that the Loop Current in the Gulf has been able to keep temps near 79 degrees for the past few weeks in spite of the cooler temps around Florida as reflected in the post below.....
One to bookmark if your going to watch GOM SST's,currents,and more.
No other site has these.

The LSU ESL Site is foremost in the GOM Modeling on a Weekly Basis.

GOM 120 Hour Water Surface Temperature Forecast Model




WAVCIS by ESL

Also,the TROPICAL WEATHER link on the Lower Left is the Wunderground Tropical Page



Quoting weathermanwannabe:
As far as SST's so far, I'm pretty amazed that the Loop Current in the Gulf has been able to keep temps near 79 degrees for the past few weeks in spite of the cooler temps around Florida as relfected in the post below.....

The loop current is working with waters well in excess of 3000 feet deep. The waters off FL (especially the west coast) are quite a bit more shallow, and more prone to quick warming/cooling.

For an example of this, get a pot or other stove-safe container that can hold at least 3 quarts of water. Pour one cup of water in, turn the stove on high, and time how long it takes to come to a full rolling boil. Now, let the container cool back down to room temp (or use an identical container), and pour 2 quarts of water into it, turn the stove on high, and see how long it takes to come to a full rolling boil. The 2 quarts of water should take MUCH longer to warm up, since there is more water to heat... but by the same token, it takes MUCH longer to cool, too.
Quoting jeffs713:

The loop current is working with waters well in excess of 3000 feet deep. The waters off FL (especially the west coast) are quite a bit more shallow, and more prone to quick warming/cooling.

For an example of this, get a pot or other stove-safe container that can hold at least 3 quarts of water. Pour one cup of water in, turn the stove on high, and time how long it takes to come to a full rolling boil. Now, let the container cool back down to room temp (or use an identical container), and pour 2 quarts of water into it, turn the stove on high, and see how long it takes to come to a full rolling boil. The 2 quarts of water should take MUCH longer to warm up, since there is more water to heat... but by the same token, it takes MUCH longer to cool, too.


Thanks......Makes sense as the loop current basically circuits in the deeper waters off the shallower continental shelf down in that region.
My Trip to Haiti


By: Bill Rancic | Category: Bill & Giuliana | Published: 2/20/2010
Views: 8650 | Comments: 18 |

Around 6 am Thursday, I departed Gary Airport just outside of Chicago bound for Haiti. Onboard was Captain Jim and Sash piloting the plane with, along with donated medical supplies and a several thousand pounds of food. After a brief stop in Florida to refuel, we touched down shortly after 11 am in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, greeted by relief representatives from Portlight.org.
Update on Cyclone Ului:

Last night, as expected, Ului tried to re-organize and strengthen again as the eye reappeared, but over the last 6 hours the eye has become clouded over once more on IR satellite imagery, and the CDO has become even more asymmetric and ragged. By all appearances Ului is and has been no stronger than a Cat 3 since yesterday morning, and I believe current estimates of 150mph winds (strong Cat 4) are overdone. To be honest Cyclone Tomas (strong Cat 3) looks better than Ului right now.

Ului's problems stem from severely restricted outflow to the east and northeast of the center, and dry air infiltration. The upper environment to the northeast of Ului is complicated and hard to pinpoint, but over the last couple days it would seem that Ului has been being haunted by a weak mid-upper low or trough, which is hanging around her northeast quadrant and shutting down the outflow channel. This low, combined with a sub-equatorial ridge to the southeast, is shoving a strong northeasterly flow of mid-upper level dry air down Ului's throat on the east side of the storm. This is evident in microwave imagery, seen below, which shows an open eyewall to the southeast and nearly no rain bands in the eastern semicircle. Again, wind shear has not been an issue so far. It looks like wind shear because the mid-upper levels in the NE quad of the storm are being messed around with. It is the dry air which is making the system look lopsided, ragged, and weighted towards the western side.

Ului will likely continue to have problems over the next day or so until she can rid herself of the dry air and re-form her eyewall. If she can accomplish this, then she may make it back up to a Cat 4 at some point during the next two days. Ului is currently moving slowly westward, but an upper trough moving northwest of New Zealand is going to weaken the subtropical ridge in about 12 hours and steer Ului more towards the south over the next couple days, still at a slow pace as steering currents are weak. After this trough passes, the subtropical ridge will build back in and steer Ului back towards the southwest, possibly threatening the coast of eastern Queensland in 3-4 days, but this is not certain yet. If Ului does threaten Australia, I doubt it will be as a major hurricane, as Ului will encounter a rapid drop-off in SSTs when she moves south of 20S, and true wind shear will be on the increase due to the subtropical jetstream to the south. Ului's landfall would likely be as a Cat 1 or 2 cyclone, thankfully instead of the catastrophic storm she was 2 days ago.



Quoting Floodman:


It's going to be an interesting ride this year...
Wuzup Floodman, hope your back is doing good. The Caribbean is very warm already and the have had record high temperatures in parts of Central America. I would imagine there will be very powerful storms in that region this year. Everyone seems to be in agreement that this will be an active hurricane season. I will hope for many fish storms. :)
Biff, Jeffs, thanks for the input! I've seen a lot of struggling magnolias down here on the Cape - winters must be too warm or the soil too nutrient-poor or salty. And of course, magnolias do make some sort of herbicide that they release through their roots to discourage competiting plants, so I wouldn't be able to plant much very close by one.

I was amazed to see a decent-looking sweetgum growing down here, though, and had forgotten about that. I did not know they could stand up to wind so well. The 135+ mph storm I went through as a teen snapped some of our younger, lankier sweetgums, but did leave a great big one standing just fine.

I'll do a follow-up post for my fellow South-Florida Wundergrounders if I come up with a whole list of good wind-resistant trees for our warmest areas. By the way, I'm definitely hoping to hear from some of you folks in the Bahamas, Cayman, Belize, etc. Please hunt up my earlier post in this issue of the Blog.

Thanks again!
Quoting hurricane23:


Hey Levi...

2010 will likely be an above average season in line with past historical trends -- above average seasons typically follow below average El Nino seasons. How intense the storms will be will depend on vertical shear and mid-level dry air conditions, and how well organized/intense the tropical waves are when they come off of Africa. The latter three no one knows about this far in advance, and conditions can change within the season itself.

I do, however, feel that we will see an early season TC form in the Caribbean Sea in June.


Hey Adrian. Yeah I am concerned for this season as well. You're right a lot of things can't be known yet this far in advance, but it is disturbing to see how historical conditions are lining up in the analog years. The mid-level dry air you speak of wasn't really a problem in the analog years, and in fact much of the deep tropics and southwest Atlantic were quite moist, as you can see below:

700mb Specific Humidity in the period August-October of the years 1958, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1978, 1995, 1998, 2005, 2007:



There are many other parameters like this from the analog years that line up with some of the model forecasts we are seeing for this summer. If current trends continue, I agree we could see an early start to the season, possibly with a storm in May, as we have seen for 5 years in a row now. I hope all these things prompt people to not be slack in getting ready for the season.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
El Nino is not in a hurry to go away.Read the latest CPC update.

Link

Hate to say it...but I listen to StormW and Levi's opinions over j00, as they're among the most knowledgeable users on WU. No offense though...but we goin' say "Hit the road, Jack" to El Nino for good 'round mid springtime.
Quoting NRAamy:
yo Jerry....

:)


Amy! Good mornin, darlin'!
What ever happened to AWeatherLover? I kinda liked her lol.
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Thanks,
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Quoting hydrus:
Wuzup Floodman, hope your back is doing good. The Caribbean is very warm already and the have had record high temperatures in parts of Central America. I would imagine there will be very powerful storms in that region this year. Everyone seems to be in agreement that this will be an active hurricane season. I will hope for many fish storms. :)


Doping god, hydrus...as for fish storms, that will all depend on the the AB set up and the ridges trofs as they play out...
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Biff, Jeffs, thanks for the input! I've seen a lot of struggling magnolias down here on the Cape - winters must be too warm or the soil too nutrient-poor or salty. And of course, magnolias do make some sort of herbicide that they release through their roots to discourage competiting plants, so I wouldn't be able to plant much very close by one.

I was amazed to see a decent-looking sweetgum growing down here, though, and had forgotten about that. I did not know they could stand up to wind so well. The 135+ mph storm I went through as a teen snapped some of our younger, lankier sweetgums, but did leave a great big one standing just fine.

I'll do a follow-up post for my fellow South-Florida Wundergrounders if I come up with a whole list of good wind-resistant trees for our warmest areas. By the way, I'm definitely hoping to hear from some of you folks in the Bahamas, Cayman, Belize, etc. Please hunt up my earlier post in this issue of the Blog.

Thanks again!

Going through Ike, the only trees that stood up very well were palm trees (Which have issues of their own with cold snaps), healthy Live Oaks, and Sweetgum trees. I could have sworn the sweetgums would snap with some wind gusts, but their wood seems to be very flexible, and the trees came right back with each gust. The seed pods can be a pain sometimes (they are kinda spiky), but aside from that, they are good trees, hurricane-resistant, and also have some beautiful fall color.
COUNTDOWN TO HURRICANE SEASON: 77 Days...10 hours...41 Minutes...10 seconds


March 14, 2010 (Warmer than yesterday)


March 13, 2010


April 11, 2005
Also of note is the moist Sahel region of Africa during the early-mid summer of nearly all of the analogs. Below are the precipitation anomalies for June through August of the 9 analog years mentioned above. You can see how anomalously moist it was across the entire Sahel region.

Quoting Floodman:


The "unzipping" of faults to that extent is very rare; in addition, the fault zones are not connected but are separate entities unto themselves...that's not to say that a large earthquake in one area of the world couldn't effect other fault zones; I think to some greater or lesser degrtee the Chilean quake did that, but it didn't trigger a series of "big ones", attesting to the complexity of these systems and their isolation from each other.

I've been seeing a bunch of "predictions" of large quakes none of which have come true and my geologist friends can tell you why; there is no way to predict earthquakes, long or short term...we just don't know enough to be able to do that reliably. Anyone that says they can are either mis-guided or they are charlatans


Well there aren't any methods of prediction that are accepted within the geological community, but some people claim to have predicted earthquakes with a high success rate using methods such as weather patterns or earthquake clouds. I myself predicted the heightened probability for a strong earthquake close to the location of the 1960 Valdivia earthquake, and I thought that the highest likelihood for such a quake would be around February to March 2010. However, I did not take the prediction seriously, so I never posted a specific prediction but I did allude to it in a few comments on the blog, and I'll see if I can find them.
Quoting OrchidGrower:
Good Day! Tropical gardener here in Zone 10 (Cape Coral), hoping some of our Wunderground friends in the Caribbean can fill me in on names of some hurricane-resistant trees that grow fairly quickly. I'm on an empty property and would like to both shade my house and provide protection from winter winds for smaller, more tender (Zone 11 and up) tropicals in my backyard.

Up here, the most widely planted wind-resistant tree is the live oak, but they are too slow and too broad-canopied for my use. Mahogany is okay and seems to do better here on the Cape with our warmer winters, but I'd like a bit of variety; mahogany is also a bit slower than I'd like. I'm thinking of trying a balsa-wood tree or two; it's a very light but strong wood, as I understand it.

South Florida is full of fast-growing, commonly planted trees like ficus and scheffelera, but all of them are prone to toppling in high winds. Tabebuias, from what I've seen, snap off major limbs even in strong cold fronts and moderate thunderstorms.

Again, I'm also trying to avoid putting in something that is going to shade out half the property all by itself (like poinciana trees).

Any help would be much appreciated!!


Your county extension officer is a good resource for this info.. as is the University of Florida's IFAS program:

http://www.ifas.ufl.edu/
Quoting Levi32:
Also of note is the moist Sahel region of Africa during the early-mid summer of nearly all of the analogs. Below are the precipitation anomalies for June through August of the 9 analog years mentioned above. You can see how anomalously moist it was across the entire Sahel region.



Then again there are some other precipitation datasets which reflect a drier Sahel during the analogs:



Quoting altesticstorm10:
COUNTDOWN TO HURRICANE SEASON: 77 Days...10 hours...41 Minutes...10 seconds


March 14, 2010 (Warmer than yesterday)


March 13, 2010


April 11, 2005


Wow! The WHWP already spans across much of the Lesser Antilles and the Southwest Caribbean! Going to be an interesting season.
morning weather peeps lol

So what is the news of the day?
63. Levi32

Not to worry Levi. If conditions develop as expected across the Atlantic, allowing for fewer less intense waves exiting Africa would still be quite likely to lead to an active to very active season!
If anyone is interested in finding a few more links about the tropics, I've put together a site that contains all of the good ones I can find. Perhaps you could check it out and add a few to your bookmarks, or add the site itself. Enjoy :~)
Good stuff there,..thanks.
Quoting Patrap:
Good stuff there,..thanks.


Thanks Pat, I know you always are sharing sites as well, and it's where I kind of got the idea from. I just wanted to put every good site I knew into one place that would be easy to access and fixed in an organized manner.
Quoting stormlvr:
63. Levi32

Not to worry Levi. If conditions develop as expected across the Atlantic, allowing for fewer less intense waves exiting Africa would still be quite likely to lead to an active to very active season!

What Levi posted were the average anomalies for the analog seasons, not for this season.


Mr. Walsh, not to come across as a stalker but what's she been up to?
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
If anyone is interested in finding a few more links about the tropics, I've put together a site that contains all of the good ones I can find. Perhaps you could check it out and add a few to your bookmarks, or add the site itself. Enjoy :~)


Great Page! I'll add you to my favorite links page on my site HERE.
Hmm this is very interesting. I love ESRL historical data :)

Check out the 600mb wind speed/direction anomalies over western Africa and the eastern Atlantic during August and September for the analog year set. It looks like the African Easterly Jet (AEJ) is generally at normal to slightly above normal strength, and positioned a tad to the north of its normal position over western Africa. Interestingly enough, the jet position over the eastern tropical Atlantic is pretty close to the long-term average, but there is a large area of anomalously slow easterlies (shown as westerly anomalies on the vector map) just to the south of the AEJ. This sets up an area of stronger-than-normal cyclonic vorticity south of the jet core between 10N and 15N.

All these things are favorable for tropical cyclogenesis of tropical waves coming off Africa, and 1995 was a great example of this with a very active Cape Verde season, exhibiting a stronger and further north AEJ.


Mean vector wind speed and direction during August and September of 1958, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1978, 1995, 1998, 2005, and 2007:



Vector wind speed/direction anomalies relative to the long-term average during August and September of 1958, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1978, 1995, 1998, 2005, and 2007:



I've decided on this: if we can pull 20 storms or more out of this year's hurricane season, I'll make a few confessions to this blog on the last day of November -- you know, the normal thing. Until then I'll be actively posting on this blog, especially on weekends, holidays and the summertime when hurricane season begins to ramp up.

The SST setup seems exactly like 2005, a little cooler in the Gulf and Caribbean, true, but it's March and not April...Is it true that there's no stopping this hurricane season? It may be bizarre to say, but Drak's self-entitled "conservative" predictions of 16-18/8-10/4-6 may truly be conservative.
Further north AEJ = more fish storms...Studying 1995 from an objective point of view, it was a "fish year" - no long trackers made it into the Caribbean, Gulf, or even hit the East Coast. The "bad one" was Opal, which formed in the Caribbean.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
If anyone is interested in finding a few more links about the tropics, I've put together a site that contains all of the good ones I can find. Perhaps you could check it out and add a few to your bookmarks, or add the site itself. Enjoy :~)

Good links there! I just added it to my bookmarks here @ work. (hopefully now I won't bug everyone on the blog for a particular link)
Quoting jeffs713:

Good links there! I just added it to my bookmarks here @ work. (hopefully now I won't bug everyone on the blog for a particular link)


Thanks! I really am glad that people are finding it helpful. I'll be adding more sites if I come across them.
Quoting StormW:


She's an undergrad student at USF, currently working at the NWS Office in Ruskin. Also, she's our Recording Secretary for our WCFLAMS chapter...She's probably busy with receiving nominations for our Officer Nominations, and receiving RSVP's for our banquet...I send out the messages, folks contact her. I'm the webmaster.

WCFLAMS OFFICERS


Alicia Williams?
By any chance does she go out with younger guys, that are also obsessed with tropical weather? LOL
Quoting StormW:


She's an undergrad student at USF, currently working at the NWS Office in Ruskin. Also, she's our Recording Secretary for our WCFLAMS chapter...She's probably busy with receiving nominations for our Officer Nominations, and receiving RSVP's for our banquet...I send out the messages, folks contact her. I'm the webmaster.

WCFLAMS OFFICERS


Oh I didnt know that was Levi :-)! I am being nominated by Dr. Jen Collins for the Secretary for the upcoming semester to take over her position :-)
Crew Members Prepare for Return to Earth from Space Station

Expedition 22 Flight Engineers Japanese astronaut Soichi Noguchi and NASA astronaut T.J. Creamer completed the deployment and calibration of the new small fine arm (SFA). The SFA was assembled then installed inside the Kibo laboratory’s airlock by Noguchi where it was removed with the module’s main robotic arm – the Japanese Experiment Module Remote Manipulator System. The SFA performs delicate robotics work, is an extension of the Kibo laboratory’s main robotic arm and has been temporarily parked on Kibo’s Exposed Facility.

Commander Jeff Williams and Flight Engineer Maxim Suraev continue packing for their return to Earth on March 18. They will enter their Soyuz TMA-16 spacecraft and undock from the International Space Station for a three-and-a-half-hour ride with a landing in Kazakhstan.

Expedition 22 crew members Noguchi, Creamer and Oleg Kotov will continue their stay on the station becoming the new Expedition 23 crew. Kotov will become the new station commander in a change of command ceremony that takes place on March 17.

On April 4, Expedition 23 will expand to a six-member crew. Arriving in the Soyuz TMA-18 spacecraft will be new station crew members Alexander Skvortsov, Tracy Caldwell Dyson and Mikhail Kornienko.

On April 7, space shuttle Discovery is scheduled to arrive for a thirteen day mission to supply the station with new science racks and ammonia tanks. STS-131 will feature three spacewalks and the delivery of the Leonardo Multi-Purpose Logistics Module.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
By any chance does she go out with younger guys, that are also obsessed with tropical weather? LOL


Now your Stalking...
Quoting jeffs713:

Going through Ike, the only trees that stood up very well were palm trees (Which have issues of their own with cold snaps), healthy Live Oaks, and Sweetgum trees. I could have sworn the sweetgums would snap with some wind gusts, but their wood seems to be very flexible, and the trees came right back with each gust. The seed pods can be a pain sometimes (they are kinda spiky), but aside from that, they are good trees, hurricane-resistant, and also have some beautiful fall color.

(In SE LA)
I cannot understand how it handles our heat so well, but I have a sugar maple that fits the bill in all of the listed desires. Has been growing very fast (~20 feet tall in 6 years?), seems rather strong and flexible (I don't think I have yet seen it lose a branch), huge leaves and branches that spread outward (wonderful shade, but the tree isn't huge), and fall colors (bare from Nov to April 1).

Like I said, it isn't huge, thus, will not take up half the yard, but very large leaves, so it shades very well immediately around it.

Note the "sugar" maple. We also have a "red" maple that loses branches all of the time...some rather significant...though the red maple is a native in these parts.
As the Main Blog Turns,

..will continue After these messages...from our Sponsors

River in Rhode Island:



WOAH!

I think the Mississippi is going to flood this spring.



Here's the 1993 flood: Link
Quoting Levi32:
Also of note is the moist Sahel region of Africa during the early-mid summer of nearly all of the analogs. Below are the precipitation anomalies for June through August of the 9 analog years mentioned above. You can see how anomalously moist it was across the entire Sahel region.


I call see you've been busy...

Haven't had the time to take it further, myself.
Quoting StormW:


Ya...I saw Jen nominated you. I'm gonna backup her nomination.


Awesome! I am very excited! Will you be present next meeting? I would like to "officially" meet you :-) I don't think we were introduced at the last meeting (if you were present).
Quoting StormChaser81:


Now your Stalking...


Not really...

-------------------------------------------

1. What's her phone number?
2. Where does she live?
3. What house does she live in?
4. When does she go to sleep every night?
5. What is she doing at 4:30 every weekday?
6. What's her student ID number?
7. What's her Social Security number?
8. How many boyfriends has she had?
9. Exactly where is she going to be on Saturday, March 27th?
10. What car does she drive?

-------------------------------------------


... etc. Now THOSE are examples of stalker questions. I was actually half joking with Mr. Walsh there, you see., y'all live in Florida and I live in Texas, so a real relationship would kind of be unrealistic.
Quoting atmoaggie:

(In SE LA)
I cannot understand how it handles our heat so well, but I have a sugar maple that fits the bill in all of the listed desires. Has been growing very fast (~20 feet tall in 6 years?), seems rather strong and flexible (I don't think I have yet seen it lose a branch), huge leaves and branches that spread outward (wonderful shade, but the tree isn't huge), and fall colors (bare from Nov to April 1).

Like I said, it isn't huge, thus, will not take up half the yard, but very large leaves, so it shades very well immediately around it.

Note the "sugar" maple. We also have a "red" maple that loses branches all of the time...some rather significant...though the red maple is a native in these parts.

Red Maples do that a lot. Supposedly, Silver Maples don't shed branches quite as much. The only issue I have with Sugar Maples is that they aren't native to SE TX (and therefore, I will have a harder time getting them approved by the HOA for my backyard).
Quoting altesticstorm10:


Not really...

-------------------------------------------

1. What's her phone number?
2. Where does she live?
3. What house does she live in?
4. When does she go to sleep every night?
5. What is she doing at 4:30 every weekday?
6. What's her student ID number?
7. What's her Social Security number?
8. How many boyfriends has she had?
9. Exactly where is she going to be on Saturday, March 27th?
10. What car does she drive?

-------------------------------------------


... etc. Now THOSE are examples of stalker questions. I was actually half joking with Mr. Walsh there, you see., y'all live in Florida and I live in Texas, so a real relationship would kind of be unrealistic.


Just stirring the pot man, don't take it personal.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Further north AEJ = more fish storms...Studying 1995 from an objective point of view, it was a "fish year" - no long trackers made it into the Caribbean, Gulf, or even hit the East Coast. The "bad one" was Opal, which formed in the Caribbean.


That was true of 1995 because nearly every one of its Cape Verde storms formed during August when the AEJ was strongest and furthest north over the eastern tropical Atlantic. During August, anomalously low heights existed over the NW Atlantic and off the SE US coast, which steered all those storms out to sea before they could cross 75W. September and October saw more of a ridge build in off the SE US coast, but the African wave train became much less active after August, and didn't provide very many storms which might have had the chance to make it across.

In general, allowing a greater frequency of tropical waves to develop west of Africa, even if they're a little further north, increases the chances of a long-track storm making landfall on the southeast coast of the US.

One model I have been looking at is the UKMET Office's Glosea.
Some interesting things to note is that is is showing pressures below normal ranging 1-1.5mb lower in the Caribbean, Greater Antilles and Bahamas. The model correlates this with above average precipitation values through the May/June/July period with the maximum in the Caribbean suggesting predominantly MJO upward pulse over the region. I think that is definitely an indicator of an active start to the hurricane season.
fiji not much high ground here http://www.tavarua.com/
Quoting Drakoen:
One model I have been looking at is the UKMET Office's Glosea.
Some interesting things to note is that is is showing pressures below normal ranging 1-1.5mb lower in the Caribbean, Greater Antilles and Bahamas. The model correlates this with above average precipitation values through the May/June/July period with the maximum in the Caribbean suggesting predominantly MJO upward pulse over the region. I think that is definitely an indicator of an active start to the hurricane season.


Could you post the link to the page where you are getting the GloSea forecast Drak? The UKMET office changed its website from back when I bookmarked it and I can't find anything on it.
Quoting leftovers:
fiji not much high ground here http://www.tavarua.com/

"Fiji consists of 322 islands (of which 106 are inhabited) and 522 smaller islets. The two most important islands are Viti Levu and Vanua Levu. The islands are mountainous, with peaks up to 1,300 metres (4,250 ft), and covered with thick tropical forests. Viti Levu hosts the capital city of Suva, and is home to nearly three quarters of the population. "
From Wikipedia.

Also, I have worked with imports from Fiji in my line of business, and it is very mountainous... plenty of high land there.
Quoting Levi32:


Could you post the link to the page where you are getting the GloSea forecast Drak? The UKMET office changed its website from back when I bookmarked it and I can't find anything on it.


Link
Quoting Drakoen:


Link


Thanks, forgot I needed to be registered to access that model.
It looks like the Glosea agrees fairly closely with the Euro for the early season, with both models showing below normal surface pressures, above normal precipitation, and above normal SSTs across the Caribbean and deep tropical Atlantic. Both models also show a dead El Nino with a cool tongue beginning to extend west off of South America during the start of the season, indicative of the La Nina to come by the end of the season.
Found this from the IRI and thought it was interesting. Years with similar ENSO compared to this year (thick blue line). As you can see only one year that had a similar Nino3.4 index stayed with El Nino while the rest went into ENSO neutral conditions and even one La Nina:

110. xcool




The Japanese FRCGC model also generally agrees with the ECMWF and UKMET. The consensus amongst these global models is impressive.
112. xcool
hey
so we could be looking at a season very similar to 2008; where the action started early and lasted for basically the next 3 months

2008 was crazy, seemed like every week a storm was affecting the US
Quoting Drakoen:
Found this from the IRI and thought it was interesting. Years with similar ENSO compared to this year (thick blue line). As you can see only one year that had a similar Nino3.4 index stayed with El Nino while the rest went into ENSO neutral conditions and even one La Nina:



Nice find. 4 of the 6 years listed are also analog years to this hurricane season. 1958, 1966, 1995, and 2003.
115. xcool
Hurricane Season very active .
Drakoen,when El Nino 3.4 mantains warm and the rest cools that is called El Nino Modoki right?

Here is the POAMA Modoki forecast.

Link
The IRI global model is seeing above-normal precipitation near the Cape Verde Islands, the Antilles, and most of the other Caribbean Islands:

Quoting Levi32:
The Japanese FRCGC model also generally agrees with the ECMWF and UKMET. The consensus amongst these global models is impressive.


Haven't seen that one. Gotta bookmark it
119. xcool
Japanese FRCGC model nicewebsite . thank to Levi32:
Quoting Hurricanes101:
so we could be looking at a season very similar to 2008; where the action started early and lasted for basically the next 3 months

2008 was crazy, seemed like every week a storm was affecting the US


Not like 2008, 2008 there wasnt that many land falling hurricanes. It's going to be more similar to 2005.

2008


2005
121. xcool
1964 analog years
IRI SSTA forecasts show warmer-than-normal SSTs in the Caribbean and deep tropical Atlantic during the entire hurricane season, with eventually moderating temps to the north of 20N. It also shows the demise of El Nino with neutral to weak La Nina conditions developing by late summer.

June-July-August:



August-September-October:

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Drakoen,when El Nino 3.4 mantains warm and the rest cools that is called El Nino Modoki right?

Here is the POAMA Modoki forecast.

Link


Not sure what you mean. El Nino Modiki is simply a west based El Nino, the placement of above-average SSTs in the Central Pacific.
In response to #120; 2005 is a season that likely will never happen again, especially not only 5 years later. 2008 was a very active season.

2008 had 7 straight storms make landfall in the United States

Starting with Cristobal and ending with Ike; of those 7 storms Cristobal, Edouard and Fay were Tropical Storms while Dolly, Gustav, Hanna and Ike were Hurricanes

Fay, Gustav and Ike all had great impacts on the areas where they made landfall.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Not like 2008, 2008 there wasnt that many land falling hurricanes. It's going to be more similar to 2005.

2008


2005

3 Landfalling 'canes and 7 landfalling storms overall is pretty significant, IMO.
Quoting jeffs713:

3 Landfalling 'canes and 7 landfalling storms overall is pretty significant, IMO.


yea I agree, 2 straight months of tracking a storm that eventually made landfall in the US is pretty significant too.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Warning
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, CAT 4
5:00 AM EST March 16 2010
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 4 (945 hPa) located at 13.2S 158.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The severe cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24hrs

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 158.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 14.0S 158.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 15.1S 159.0E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS: 17.1S 159.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4)

Additional Information
==========================
LG eye embedded in LG CDO with B surrounding ring. DT is 5.0, MET is 4.5 Final T is 5.0.

Expect steering of the system to become more northerly during the next 48 hours as an upper trough erodes the mid level ridge to the south. From Thursday a new mid-level ridge develops south of the system and steering should become more NE'ly.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #21
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS (14F)
6:00 AM FST March 16 2010
======================================

For Fiji and Rotuma
====================

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR CIKOBIA, EASTERN TIP OF VANUA LEVU, RABI, KIOA, TAVEUNI, QAMEA, LAUCALA, NAITAUBA, YACATA, KANACEA, MAGO, CICIA, BATIKI, MOALA, MATUKU,TOTOYA, AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A STORM WARNING REMAINS FORCE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF VANUA LEVU, KORO, MAKOGAI, GAU, VANUA BALAVU, NAYAU, LAKEBA, KABARA AND NEARBY SMALLER ISLANDS.

A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF VITI LEVU, BEQA, KADAVU AND THE REST OF THE LAU AND LOMAIVITI GROUPS.

A STRONG WIND WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR THE REST OF THE FIJI GROUP.


At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Cyclone Tomas (930 hPa) located at 17.5S 179.5W has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots. Position GOOD based on hourly GMS/GOES enhanced infrared radar imagery with animation and also radar. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
40 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
60 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
150 NM from the center

CYclone has shown signs of weakening in the last 24 hours. Cyclone lies in a weakly sheared environment. Sea surface temperature is 28C. System steered southerly by the deep layer mean flow.

Dvorak analysis, DT of 5.0 with a OW eye surrounded by LG. 24 hour change in the infrared imagery shows that the upper outflow is now restricted, thus the system has weakend 1.0 in 24 hours. MET 4.5, PT number adjuest to 5.0, FT based on DT and PT.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24HRS

The consensus of the global models agree o nsoutherly track over the neext 18 hours, and then on a faster southeasterly track. The cyclone is expected to move into increasingly sheared environment and weaken south of 20S.

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 19.1S 179.4W - 85 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 21.3S 178.6W - 80 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 27.7S 172.3W - 50 knots (CAT 2)

The Next Tropical Disturbance Advisory On TC TOMAS Will Be Issued At Around 2:30 AM UTC (Tuesday)...
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Warning
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, CAT 4
5:00 AM EST March 16 2010
=====================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 4 (945 hPa) located at 13.2S 158.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 125 knots. The severe cyclone is reported as moving west southwest at 2 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W1.0/24hrs

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
35 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
55 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 158.1E - 90 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 14.0S 158.0E - 95 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 15.1S 159.0E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS: 17.1S 159.6E - 100 knots (CAT 4)

Additional Information
==========================
LG eye embedded in LG CDO with B surrounding ring. DT is 5.0, MET is 4.5 Final T is 5.0.

Expect steering of the system to become more northerly during the next 48 hours as an upper trough erodes the mid level ridge to the south. From Thursday a new mid-level ridge develops south of the system and steering should become more NE'ly.


So Ului could head further west after this initial move to the south?
Quoting jeffs713:

3 Landfalling 'canes and 7 landfalling storms overall is pretty significant, IMO.
Very, I am hoping for the best, but we are still a hyper-active phase, A major hurricane making land fall on U.S. soil in 2010 is probable. jmo
Quoting Hurricanes101:


So Ului could head further west after this initial move to the south?


Yes, because the shortwave that will pull her south will move on pretty fast, letting the subtropical ridge build back in to Ului's south, forcing her back towards the west a little bit. I have a feeling Australia will feel the impacts of Ului, but in a weaker state, likely a Cat 1 or 2.
Quoting jeffs713:

3 Landfalling 'canes and 7 landfalling storms overall is pretty significant, IMO.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


yea I agree, 2 straight months of tracking a storm that eventually made landfall in the US is pretty significant too.


It's all how you look at it.

I was looking at major's making land fall.
Tomas
The Island got the week side fortunately.

BOM has the system heading southeast later this week.
dashboard cow man!

:)
How can Ului have such a poor sat. appearance yet be a 150 mph cat 4? It has been quite unimpressive looking for over 24 hours (very warm cloud tops, half collapsed eye wall, multiple dry slots, etc.). I've seen more impressive looking Atlantic hurricanes at 100 mph.
Tomorrow,and Weds..


2010 Central Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Conference

Presented by C4G and NOAA


March 16th & 17th, 2010 at the Lod Cook Alumni Center
Quoting Hurricanes101:
In response to #120; 2005 is a season that likely will never happen again, especially not only 5 years later.

That's an ignorant statement. If the conditions are as favorable/warm (or more favorable/warmer) than 2005, who's to say it can't happen again, whether it's 1 year, 5 years or 500 years later? It doesn't matter. Sea upwelling doesn't even last beyond two weeks, much less five years.

The whole "OMG 2005 WAS A FLUKE AND WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN" argument is downright stupid. Climatology is an average, not a standard. With the active period to last another 10-15 years and the transition to the cold PDO, it's entirely plausible that, whether it's 2010 or not, we will see a hurricane season that rivals 2005 in the coming decade or so.
Quoting pipelines:
How can Ului have such a poor sat. appearance yet be a 150 mph cat 4? It has been quite unimpressive looking for over 24 hours (very warm cloud tops, half collapsed eye wall, multiple dry slots, etc.). I've seen more impressive looking Atlantic hurricanes at 100 mph.


I posted an update on Ului earlier discussing the reasons for her struggles:

Update on Cyclone Ului:

Last night, as expected, Ului tried to re-organize and strengthen again as the eye reappeared, but over the last 6 hours the eye has become clouded over once more on IR satellite imagery, and the CDO has become even more asymmetric and ragged. By all appearances Ului is and has been no stronger than a Cat 3 since yesterday morning, and I believe current estimates of 150mph winds (strong Cat 4) are overdone. To be honest Cyclone Tomas (strong Cat 3) looks better than Ului right now.

Ului's problems stem from severely restricted outflow to the east and northeast of the center, and dry air infiltration. The upper environment to the northeast of Ului is complicated and hard to pinpoint, but over the last couple days it would seem that Ului has been being haunted by a weak mid-upper low or trough, which is hanging around her northeast quadrant and shutting down the outflow channel. This low, combined with a sub-equatorial ridge to the southeast, is shoving a strong northeasterly flow of mid-upper level dry air down Ului's throat on the east side of the storm. This is evident in microwave imagery, seen below, which shows an open eyewall to the southeast and nearly no rain bands in the eastern semicircle. Again, wind shear has not been an issue so far. It looks like wind shear because the mid-upper levels in the NE quad of the storm are being messed around with. It is the dry air which is making the system look lopsided, ragged, and weighted towards the western side.

Ului will likely continue to have problems over the next day or so until she can rid herself of the dry air and re-form her eyewall. If she can accomplish this, then she may make it back up to a Cat 4 at some point during the next two days. Ului is currently moving slowly westward, but an upper trough moving northwest of New Zealand is going to weaken the subtropical ridge in about 12 hours and steer Ului more towards the south over the next couple days, still at a slow pace as steering currents are weak. After this trough passes, the subtropical ridge will build back in and steer Ului back towards the southwest, possibly threatening the coast of eastern Queensland in 3-4 days, but this is not certain yet. If Ului does threaten Australia, I doubt it will be as a major hurricane, as Ului will encounter a rapid drop-off in SSTs when she moves south of 20S, and true wind shear will be on the increase due to the subtropical jetstream to the south. Ului's landfall would likely be as a Cat 1 or 2 cyclone, thankfully instead of the catastrophic storm she was 2 days ago.



140. xcool
Very warm Atlantic Ocean and weakening El Nino could lead to active hurricane season


As winter winds down, attention begins to turn towards the summer and hurricane season which is approaching. After last year’s relatively quiet hurricane season (9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes) which was below the 30 year average of 12 named storms and well below the 10 year average of 16 named storms, I think we may see a rebound this season.

The reasoning is predicated on two things, First, a very warm Atlantic ocean which for February, in the mean development region from the Caribbean to Africa, is the warmest ever for February and the 2nd warmest anomaly for a month since 1948. This is known as the TNA index (Tropical North Atlantic) and is used by meteorologists to gauge whether sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic will abnormally favor (warmer than normal SSTs) or abnormally not favor (cooler than normal SSTs) development of tropical systems.

Second, a potential weakening El Nino in the tropical Pacific should mean that wind shear will not be an overwhelming problem in the Atlantic this season. We have seen a moderate to at times strong El Nino this winter. However, SST data seems to indicate that our El Nino peaked earlier this winter and that we are on a downward trend as of now. The major SST plume models show the El Nino weakening to at least neutral conditions for the hurricane season. Now, I think with still a good bit of subsurface warmth in the Pacific, and continuing above normal global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) I think this El Nino will not break down so quickly. However, I do think we will be near neutral or a weak El Nino by June/July and probably neutral for the heart of the hurricane season. There is some concern that their could be a lag effect on the atmosphere that could maintain somewhat hostile conditions in the tropics, but for now I think the Atlantic will not be negatively impacted by El Nino for the heart of the hurricane season.So while my official hurricane forecast will come out on in late April, I feel confident enough now to predict that we will see an above normal # of named storms probably in the 14-17 range. In my official forecast, I will zero in on more factors to consider and also nail down a final number and speculate on landfall threats.

by Allan Huffman!!!!!!!!


I missed that post Levi sorry, I agree with your solution to Ului's weakening. I don't understand why they are so overly exaggerating its intensity though for such a long period of time. I wouldn't be surprised if this was actually a minimal cat 2 or even a 1 at the moment and for the last 24 hours. Those cloud tops are just way too warm and it is the diurnal maximum there right now.
Hiya Amy :)
From Merriam Webster

tact

Main Entry: tact
Pronunciation: \ˈtakt\
Function: noun
Etymology: French, sense of touch, from Latin tactus, from tangere to touch — more at tangent
Date: 1797

1 : sensitive mental or aesthetic perception
2 : a keen sense of what to do or say in order to maintain good relations with others or avoid offense
synonyms tact, address, poise, savoir faire mean skill and grace in dealing with others. tact implies delicate and considerate perception of what is appropriate . address stresses dexterity and grace in dealing with new and trying situations and may imply success in attaining one's ends . poise may imply both tact and address but stresses self-possession and ease in meeting difficult situations . savoir faire is likely to stress worldly experience and a sure awareness of what is proper or expedient .
Quoting pipelines:
I missed that post Levi sorry, I agree with your solution to Ului's weakening. I don't understand why they are so overly exaggerating its intensity though for such a long period of time. I wouldn't be surprised if this was actually a minimal cat 2 or even a 1 at the moment and for the last 24 hours. Those cloud tops are just way too warm and it is the diurnal maximum there right now.


Oh don't be sorry it's not like everyone is here at the same time to see every post.

Yeah I don't understand why they still have her as a high-end Cat 4, although that update was last night. Even still she was already down to Cat 3 last night, and has remained at low-end Cat 3 today. The dry air is wreaking havoc with her right now.
Quoting xcool:
Very warm Atlantic Ocean and weakening El Nino could lead to active hurricane season


As winter winds down, attention begins to turn towards the summer and hurricane season which is approaching. After last year%u2019s relatively quiet hurricane season (9 named storms, 3 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes) which was below the 30 year average of 12 named storms and well below the 10 year average of 16 named storms, I think we may see a rebound this season.

The reasoning is predicated on two things, First, a very warm Atlantic ocean which for February, in the mean development region from the Caribbean to Africa, is the warmest ever for February and the 2nd warmest anomaly for a month since 1948. This is known as the TNA index (Tropical North Atlantic) and is used by meteorologists to gauge whether sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic will abnormally favor (warmer than normal SSTs) or abnormally not favor (cooler than normal SSTs) development of tropical systems.

Second, a potential weakening El Nino in the tropical Pacific should mean that wind shear will not be an overwhelming problem in the Atlantic this season. We have seen a moderate to at times strong El Nino this winter. However, SST data seems to indicate that our El Nino peaked earlier this winter and that we are on a downward trend as of now. The major SST plume models show the El Nino weakening to at least neutral conditions for the hurricane season. Now, I think with still a good bit of subsurface warmth in the Pacific, and continuing above normal global atmospheric angular momentum (GLAAM) I think this El Nino will not break down so quickly. However, I do think we will be near neutral or a weak El Nino by June/July and probably neutral for the heart of the hurricane season. There is some concern that their could be a lag effect on the atmosphere that could maintain somewhat hostile conditions in the tropics, but for now I think the Atlantic will not be negatively impacted by El Nino for the heart of the hurricane season.So while my official hurricane forecast will come out on in late April, I feel confident enough now to predict that we will see an above normal # of named storms probably in the 14-17 range. In my official forecast, I will zero in on more factors to consider and also nail down a final number and speculate on landfall threats.

by Allan Huffman!!!!!!!!



There certainly wasn't much "lag effect" in 2005.

Most everyone, including Drakoen, concurs that we're going to most likely have an active early part of the hurricane season (June, July, the months leading up to the "heart" of the season). El Nino is predicted to completely die by May and fall to neutral conditions in time for the start of hurricane season and remain neutral throughout the "meat" of the season or quite possibly fall to weak La Nina levels by September.

Point is, El Nino isn't going to be around for hurricane season, the water's going to be hot as heck, and the easterly shear is going to be below average because the trade winds in the MDR are weak because the Bermuda High is weaker-than-normal this season. That doesn't mean every storm'll be a fish storm, though. If the ridge is parked in the W Atlantic at say, 30-32N, 65-68W, yeah sure there'll be fish storms (like Irene, Lee, Maria and Nate in 2005) but there's also be "land" storms (Emily, Katrina, Rita, Dean, Ike...you get the picture).
"Flying high with NASA's Joanne Simpson"


Posted on Mar 12, 2010 12:20:33 AM | NASA's Earth Science News Team

Joanne Simpson, the first woman to earn a PhD in meteorology, didnt just break into a field where women werent welcome. She broke the door down and accumulated a list of scientific achievements thats rare for any scientist, regardless of gender. Early in her career, she made the key insight that narrow cumulonimbus clouds--she called them hot towers -- are the engines that drive tropical circulation and help sustain the eyes of hurricanes. Later, she became one of the first scientists to develop a cloud model, an advance that ultimately sparked a whole new branch of meteorology. She spent decades with NASA, helping to lead the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission, a satellite thats led to key insights about how hurricanes start and how dust affects precipitation. And she was a key proponent for the upcoming Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), the follow up satellite to TRMM. No stranger to controversy, she stirred up a scientific furor when she sought to test the validity of her cloud model by experimenting with cloud seeding. Even well into her eighties, Simpson didn't shy from vigorous debate about the scientific basis of global warming.

In March, at the age of 86, Simpson passed away in Washington, D.C. In a recent interview with the Discovery Channel, a producer asked her what was the most fascinating thing about studying the atmosphere. In my case, its the clouds, she said without hesitation. There are some beautiful ones out there right now, she said while gesturing toward the window.

In tribute to Simpsons efforts to understand clouds, weve chosen four of our favorite cloud images from a series of images that Simpson donated to the NOAA Photo Library and likely took. The photographs were taken from NASA's DC-8 during the TOGA-COARE project in the 1990s.
Stretched blog...I hate it when that happens!
Upgrade to FireFox 3.6 and NEVER HAVE A STRETCHED Blog






Below are the Atlantic 925mb wind anomalies for February. You can see how the Azores High was weaker than normal, resulting in weak easterly trade winds across the tropical Atlantic (note that a westerly vector anomaly in the image does not necessarily mean the actual wind was westerly). This is mostly what has allowed SSTs to warm to record levels in the eastern Atlantic.

Firefox sucks.

I sent Alicia an email. Does she ever reply? It's not totally off topic...lol.
Quoting Levi32:
Below are the Atlantic 925mb wind anomalies for February. You can see how the Azores High was weaker than normal, resulting in weak easterly trade winds across the tropical Atlantic (note that a westerly vector anomaly in the image does not necessarily mean the actual wind was westerly). This is mostly what has allowed SSTs to warm to record levels in the eastern Atlantic.


"Record SSTs... in the ATLANTIC" ?

Sounds a lot like something Dr. Lyons stated on TWC in the spring before hurricane season not too many years ago...maybe half a decade or so ago? :P
OK, finally some good news! The housing market isn't expected to rebound much this year so the cost of plywood should be cheap :-)
Quoting Levi32:

Below are the Atlantic 925mb wind anomalies for February. You can see how the Azores High was weaker than normal, resulting in weak easterly trade winds across the tropical Atlantic (note that a westerly vector anomaly in the image does not necessarily mean the actual wind was westerly). This is mostly what has allowed SSTs to warm to record levels in the eastern Atlantic.





In reference, here are the mean sea-level pressure anomalies (in millibars) for the same month. You can clearly see the lower-than-normal pressures over the northeast Atlantic, indicating a weaker-than-normal Azores High.

SSTs at record levels in the East Atlantic seems to contradict what happened in 2005 though

in 2005 there were only 2 CV storms, most systems formed close to home
Quoting altesticstorm10:

"Record SSTs" ?

Sounds a lot like something Dr. Lyons states not too many years ago...maybe half a decade or so ago? :P


Did you miss Dr. Master's last post? Lol.

Quote from the Dr's post:

"Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the Atlantic's Main Development Region for hurricanes were at their highest February level on record last month, according to an analysis of historical SST data from the UK Hadley Center."
Quoting Hurricanes101:
SSTs at record levels in the East Atlantic seems to contradict what happened in 2005 though

in 2005 there were only 2 CV storms, most systems formed close to home


Well the best conditions in 2005 were in the western Atlantic, where all of our Cat 5s were. This map of 700mb specific humidity anomalies shows most of the mid-level moisture over the SW Atlantic, with normal to drier than normal air over the Cape Verde region of the deep tropical Atlantic.

I see a consensus towards a hyperactive hurricane season--led by some very intelligent bloggers who have a good record. Given their standing, they will probably be proven right.

However, I'll be the devil's advocate. Conditions by hurricane season may end up not being what we expect. And even an active hurricane season can still have most storms track away from land.

We would remember the 2007 hurricane season very differently if Dean & Felix had both entered the Gulf of Mexico and both struck the US Gulf coast as Cat 4s or Cat 5s. Two Cat 5 landfalls in the Caribbean instead somehow made things seem less active.

I remember the spring before the 2006 hurricane season when a lot of forecasters warned that another hyperactive season was in the offing. It was not.

It's just that after the last few years, I look at seasonal hurricane forecasts issued in the spring with a lot of skepticism.

And even a relatively quiet season can be quite destructive. It only takes one. 1960 was a pretty quiet year, with just 6 storms. Yet hurricane Donna swept up the east coast and brought hurricane winds to 13 states. 1992 was another quiet year, with only 7 storms---and a late start. The first storm was almost sheared apart. Almost.

Drakoen, Levi, and StormW are very smart tropical bloggers. So we'll see! :)

Quoting Hurricanes101:
SSTs at record levels in the East Atlantic seems to contradict what happened in 2005 though

in 2005 there were only 2 CV storms, most systems formed close to home

WHILE IT IS TRUE THAT Irene and Maria were the only true CV hurricanes...you're missing the point. In 2005, the SSTs in the E. Atlantic were record high...the dust caused the storms coming off Africa to be less powerful when they first came off Africa. While that much is true, the hot water that these waves traversed in the E. Atl allowed to gain good tropical characteristics/convergence and divergence that would eventually allow them to make it in the Atlantic once they got past the dry, dusty zone.

EXAMPLES: Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin, Harvey, Katrina, and Philippe - though not technically CV storms, all of these either formed directly from African waves or had strong African wave influence that allowed for cyclogenesis. The warm water in the MDR near Africa allowed the waves to "set themselves up" for development once they got past the dry dusty zone. Note the water was warm everywhere these systems went.

Let's look at Emily. A weak wave that rolled off Africa in early July...it went unnoticed at the time because it was so weak and Dennis in the Caribbean was becoming so strong. But the record-level E. Atl waters allowed the wave to become organized and gain good convergence and divergence so that when it got into the Central Atlantic near 45W, it could begin developing into an actual tropical depression when the dry air was behind it.
Quoting Levi32:


Well the best conditions in 2005 were in the western Atlantic, where all of our Cat 5s were. This map of 700mb specific humidity anomalies shows most of the mid-level moisture over the SW Atlantic, with normal to drier than normal air over the Cape Verde region of the deep tropical Atlantic.



Here are the actual precipitation anomalies (in millimeters) from August to October of 2005, the same period as the 700mb Humidity map. You can see the bulk of above normal precipitation was over the SW Atlantic and the Caribbean, with normal to maybe slightly drier than normal on average in the eastern tropical Atlantic.

Quoting altesticstorm10:

WHILE IT IS TRUE THAT Irene and Maria were the only true CV hurricanes...you're missing the point. In 2005, the SSTs in the E. Atlantic were record high...the dust caused the storms coming off Africa to be less powerful when they first came off Africa. While that much is true, the hot water that these waves traversed in the E. Atl allowed to gain good tropical characteristics/convergence and divergence that would eventually allow them to make it in the Atlantic once they got past the dry, dusty zone.

EXAMPLES: Cindy, Dennis, Emily, Franklin, Harvey, Katrina, and Philippe - though not technically CV storms, all of these either formed directly from African waves or had strong African wave influence that allowed for cyclogenesis. The warm water in the MDR near Africa allowed the waves to "set themselves up" for development once they got past the dry dusty zone. Note the water was warm everywhere these systems went.

Let's look at Emily. A weak wave that rolled off Africa in early July...it went unnoticed at the time because it was so weak and Dennis in the Caribbean was becoming so strong. But the record-level E. Atl waters allowed the wave to become organized and gain good convergence and divergence so that when it got into the Central Atlantic near 45W, it could begin developing into an actual tropical depression when the dry air was behind it.


And oftentimes it is that very setup that keeps tropical waves at bay until they get further west, that can end up very bad for the United States. By making tropical waves wait to become hurricanes until they are farther west, it decreases their chance of recurving before hitting someone. Having the best conditions in the SW Atlantic is always the worst scenario when we're talking about potential landfall impact.
Don't know what the estimates were for 1992, but the first hurricane of the year was not until August 16. Name - Andrew

Even a "quiet" year can be awful!
165. xcool
i'm sorry firefox noogood
The below image shows the change in the global SST anomalies between mid-January and mid-February. You can see there was over a half-degree Celsius warming in the eastern tropical Atlantic, where the record SSTs are, and most of the central Pacific cooled off 0.25-0.50°C, showing the El Nino beginning to decay.

There's a strong correlation between warm E. Atl waters (the general rule is, 26º at least to 10N all the way east to Africa) in the spring and active hurricane seasons, see 2005 and 2008.

It could be a very bad setup for the U.S. and Caribbean if the conditions - not necessarily the SSTs, but the dry air and dust - are not so favorable for tropical storm formation east of 40W. Keeping these waves weak and undeveloped but tropically organized enough to explode later-on (based on the high SSTs) pushes them westward towards the Lesser Antilles and Bahamas, depending on how far west that subtropical ridge is. The US could live with a million Bertha's.

sigh...I liked it better when ya'll argued about stuff...

the only shred of hope I see, is the very rare mention of a not-so-quickly-weakening ElNino, and maybe the shear will still be a little too strong...

was nice knowing ya'll...I'll enjoy these next few months, as though they are my last...
I'm going to reinforce the Georgia hurricane repulsion shield aquak9 :)
Illustrated in the map below, February and March are the two months during which all Atlantic waters see their minimum temperature during the year. After this month we will see them all start to rise, eventually peaking during the months of August, September, and October, depending on the region. These are the most active months of the hurricane season.

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
I'm going to reinforce the Georgia hurricane repulsion shield aquak9 :)


can ya extend it south a little, too? all this talk about 1964 is giving me the willies.
Quoting aquak9:
sigh...I liked it better when ya'll argued about stuff...

the only shred of hope I see, is the very rare mention of a not-so-quickly-weakening ElNino, and maybe the shear will still be a little too strong...

was nice knowing ya'll...I'll enjoy these next few months, as though they are my last...


Lol Aqua, don't despair.

You lived through 2005 didn't you? :)

I just hope our warnings prompt some people to get ready now who would otherwise procrastinate and then be un-prepared when disaster strikes. Hopefully it won't be a disaster-ridden year, but it has the potential to be bad, so everyone should be ready just like they should be every single year.
Consider Nassau and Duval county protected ;) Jacksonville is the capital of south Georgia anyway ;) Bob down in St. Johns will have to make a hurricane shield of his own ;)
If there's a hurricane even 5 days out, in say, the Atlantic (or Caribbean), fill your car FULL with gas, and lie low and drive very sparingly for the next few days. Don't wait until the next to last day when you're parking your car in the middle of the road just to wait in line for gas so you can get the heck out of the storm's path.
Quoting Levi32:


Lol Aqua, don't despair.

You lived through 2005 didn't you? :)

I just hope our warnings prompt some people to get ready now who would otherwise procrastinate and then be un-prepared when disaster strikes. Hopefully it won't be a disaster-ridden year, but it has the potential to be bad, so everyone should be ready like just like they should be every single year.


We all have plenty of time to prepare. I wait for Hurricane items to go on sale, i.e. flashlights, batteries, canned goods, bottled water, portable T.V.'s etc.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


We all have plenty of time to prepare. I wait for Hurricane items to go on sale, i.e. flashlights, batteries, canned goods, bottled water, portable T.V.'s etc.


Yup plenty of time so everyone should make use of it.
Quoting Levi32:


Yup plenty of time so everyone should make use of it.

When does money go on sale?
Quoting altesticstorm10:

When does money go on sale?


As soon as inflation stops...
Quoting Levi32:


As soon as inflation stops...

When Obama -

nevermind, off topic.

Patrap, why do the SSTs seem to fluctuate twice every day?
Diurnal Heating,Sun goes up,..and da Sun goeth down
Off topic, but it is slow....For those of you who watch Countdown on MSNBC, Keith Olbermann's father passed away on Saturday. Olbermann is a huge proponet of health care for all, and this is sad news for those of us who followed his Special Comments. Link
Quoting altesticstorm10:
If there's a hurricane even 5 days out, in say, the Atlantic (or Caribbean), fill your car FULL with gas, and lie low and drive very sparingly for the next few days. Don't wait until the next to last day when you're parking your car in the middle of the road just to wait in line for gas so you can get the heck out of the storm's path.

Remember... Run from the water, hide from the wind. Let those who are in danger of the storm surge get out. If you aren't in a storm surge zone, don't evacuate (unless you have a medical condition that necessitates it).
Quoting jeffs713:

Remember... Run from the water, hide from the wind. Let those who are in danger of the storm surge get out. If you aren't in a storm surge zone, don't evacuate (unless you have a medical condition that necessitates it).

Or a mobile home.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Off topic, but it is slow....For those of you who watch Countdown on MSNBC, Keith Olbermann's father passed away on Saturday. Olbermann is a huge proponet of health care for all, and this is sad news for those of us who followed his Special Comments. Link


I watched msnbc a few times but all they seem to be is a network covering another network. So I decided to turn over to fox and make up my own mind. It was Greta and she was interviewing a Dem. on the health care topic. Seems a little more fair and balanced then msnbc. Sad news about Olbermann's father but from what I had read he was in a lot of pain.
Quoting aquak9:
...I'll enjoy these next few months, as though they are my last...


That's how I always live. :)
Quoting severstorm:

Or a mobile home.

You mean tornado magnet. (no offense to anyone in a mobile home intended)
Quoting jeffs713:

You mean tornado magnet. (no offense to anyone in a mobile home intended)

No offense taken because you are right on the spot about that. Had one touch down 6 miles from my house and it was in a trailor park.
xxx
Patrap you are so funny from post 181

LMAO

Taco :0)
193. xcool
What Ever Happened To weather456 ????
Quoting xcool:
What Ever Happened To weather456 ????


He decided to leave WU, as his life is progressing to other important things. He will be missed this year.
Quoting severstorm:

No offense taken because you are right on the spot about that. Had one touch down 6 miles from my house and it was in a trailor park.

Amazing, isnt it?

When my fiancee and I were looking for a house, we found a cute one that wasn't very expensive... but there were trailer parks on 2 sides. So... no to that "cute" house. (we found a better one a few miles away that is brand new)
well at least we got Levi back again.

Yeah, I lived thru '05...but I didn't have WU. None of us did, not the blogs, anyways.

Kinda makes it all the more scary and exciting to have friends all over.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


In no way being political on my part. I have health care from work...but, I have friends who do not. Something needs to be done.


sorry for being off topic....

The only problem is "we all will be taxed" but want go into afect for 6yrs..... So they still want have insurance....

Taco :0)
Quoting jeffs713:

Amazing, isnt it?

When my fiancee and I were looking for a house, we found a cute one that wasn't very expensive... but there were trailer parks on 2 sides. So... no to that "cute" house. (we found a better one a few miles away that is brand new)

Jeff, it is amazing how this happins. So true.
Levi32, I just read you blog, Lots of info in there but i must say the way you set it up you have way to much time on your hands up there in Alaska. LOL.
Quoting severstorm:
Levi32, I just read you blog, Lots of info in there but i must say the way you set it up you have way to much time on your hands up there in Alaska. LOL.


Haha yeah well I do for the time being because I'm done with school but haven't found a job yet for the summer, so I have lots of time to just be bored and look at things. I really hope I can be here for the entire hurricane season but if I go to college in August I probably won't be able to.
This is impressive no doupt... Hopefully a set-up for some pretty fish.

Quoting taco2me61:

sorry for being off topic....

The only problem is "we all will be taxed" but want go into afect for 6yrs..... So they still want have insurance....

Taco :0)


We are being taxed now. Every person that goes into an Emergency Room without insurance, we the taxpayers, is paying for.

Quoting Levi32:


Haha yeah well I do for the time being because I'm done with school but haven't found a job yet for the summer, so I have lots of time to just be bored and look at things. I really hope I can be here for the entire hurricane season but if I go to college in August I probably won't be able to.

I'm sure you will still find some time.Remember college students don't sleep.LOL
Quoting xcool:
What Ever Happened To weather456 ????


He is hanging out with Gator23 and JFV. Just kidding he is still around
Quoting hurricane23:
This is impressive no doupt... Hopefully a set-up for some pretty fish.


One thing I've always wondered... why does it seem like there are always "pulses" of warm anomalies in the gulf stream, off the east coast?
207. JLPR
Quoting severstorm:

I'm sure you will still find some time.Remember college students don't sleep.LOL


yep, quite true XD lol
Quoting jeffs713:

One thing I've always wondered... why does it seem like there are always "pulses" of warm anomalies in the gulf stream, off the east coast?


Because there ARE pulses of warm anomolies of the east coast. The South Florida coast is some of the warmest in the US
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


We are being taxed now. Every person that goes into an Emergency Room without insurance, we the taxpayers, is paying for.



Yelp have been paying for it for the last 32yrs so I do understand.... But they will add even more "Tax" and thats the sad part....

Taco :0)
Quoting doabarrelroll:


Because there ARE pulses of warm anomolies of the east coast. The South Florida coast is some of the warmest in the US

Right. But why does it pulse like that?
Just not sure what to do now...I was so sure the caps were melting because of the evil CO2 and water vapor...

Link

Good evening all..

does anyone know the best site to get weather history for the last 5 days for the GOM? I just returned from a 7 day cruise and the trip thru the GOM was a trip!..lol..I am just curious as the the winds and wave heights..needless to say, I am sure glad that I had some bonine and my sea legs with me!..lol
Quoting hurricane23:
This is impressive no doupt... Hopefully a set-up for some pretty fish.



Hope for a strong trough or a mostly negative MJO throughout the season.
Quoting hurricane23:
This is impressive no doupt... Hopefully a set-up for some pretty fish.



And what's amazing is looking at our analog set for this year and comparing it to your image. Look at the similarity. How much better than that can you get? The hurricane seasons of these nine years averaged 15 named storms and 4 U.S. landfalls.

SST Anomalies for February and March of the years 1958, 1964, 1966, 1970, 1978, 1995, 1998, 2005, and 2007:



Also look at the winter temperature anomalies for the analog year set....look familiar?

Quoting AllyBama:
Good evening all..

does anyone know the best site to get weather history for the last 5 days for the GOM? I just returned from a 7 day cruise and the trip thru the GOM was a trip!..lol..I am just curious as the the winds and wave heights..needless to say, I am sure glad that I had some bonine and my sea legs with me!..lol


Hey Ally,
Welcome Home :0)
As for the last 5 days for the GOM, I have yet to find that info but I am looking....

Taco :0)
Quoting jeffs713:

One thing I've always wondered... why does it seem like there are always "pulses" of warm anomalies in the gulf stream, off the east coast?


sst's around around the gulf/eastcoast will warm pretty quickly from here on out.
Quoting jeffs713:

Right. But why does it pulse like that?


There are almost always warm anomaly eddies and pulses along the gulf stream because the gulf stream is always there, bringing deep warm water northward. The surface anomalies all around may be cold, but the warm, deep-water current of the gulf stream will always be periodically warming the surface water in spots.
Thanks taco!

all I know is that winds gusted over 60 mph (at least)!..lol
219. MTWX
Quoting AllyBama:
Good evening all..

does anyone know the best site to get weather history for the last 5 days for the GOM? I just returned from a 7 day cruise and the trip thru the GOM was a trip!..lol..I am just curious as the the winds and wave heights..needless to say, I am sure glad that I had some bonine and my sea legs with me!..lol

Not sure, but I was in Biloxi for the last 4 days fishing and the NWS was reporting winds sustained at 25 knots and waves up to 8 ft in the open waters of the gulf for the last couple of days
Quoting AllyBama:
Thanks taco!

all I know is that winds gusted over 60 mph (at least)!..lol


Well we had a severe weather event in the south and a front swung through the gulf a few days ago. A low developed along this front and slammed Florida. That's probably what spiced up the weather on your cruise. I hope you enjoyed it despite that lol.
2005:



2007:


---------------------------------------------------

2010:
I am continually amazed at how similar history is. Here again is this winter so far (December-Feburary), this time the precipitation anomalies, and then below that are the same anomalies for the same time-frame during our hurricane analog years:

U.S. Precipitation Anomalies for the winter so far:



U.S. Precipitation Anomalies for the hurricane analog year set:



~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

You just CANNOT ask for better than that!
Thanks MTWX and Levi..
Quoting whipster:
Just not sure what to do now...I was so sure the caps were melting because of the evil CO2 and water vapor...

Link



Probably caused by the reformation of the Arctic vortex, which allowed the cold air to settle back into the Arctic area. For most of the winter the negative AO has allowed the Arctic air to flood into the Northern Hemisphere continents while the warmer air flooded the Arctic Ocean.
Are we getting jphurricane2006 back this year? He was pretty accurate. IKE, SC2007, MLC, of course SJ, SW, Drak and all the Floridians...should be back for this season...even JFV provides for a good laugh ;)
post 221- oh that's just LOVELY
Ok I'm just gonna keep puffing up these analogs....this is incredible. Remember we've been talking about weak trade winds in the east Atlantic due to a weak Azores High this winter, which has allowed SSTs to soar to record levels. Well here are the surface wind speed anomalies for this January and February (top image), followed by the wind speed anomalies for January and February of the 9 hurricane analog years (bottom image):





Wow.
2010 > 2005 > 2007.
We may need to fly Levi down for the Hurricane Conference!
Never would have thought that 2005, the "greatest hurricane season of all time", would be on the "less than" side of an inequality > < ... but here it is... any comments?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
We may need to fly Levi down for the Hurricane Conference!


Lol...well someday I'd love to be at one of those things. I've never even been out of Alaska before lol. On my life wish list I want to see cloud-to-ground lightning and experience a real thunderstorm with the downpour, gust front, and everything. Then I want to live through a hurricane without dying lol (jking, but if it was a realistic idea, I'd want to).
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Are we getting jphurricane2006 back this year? He was pretty accurate. IKE, SC2007, MLC, of course SJ, SW, Drak and all the Floridians...should be back for this season...even JFV provides for a good laugh ;)


I wont ever leave, maybe in 2020.. maybe.


Sunspot 1054 has a "beta-gamma" magnetic field that harbors energy for C- and possibly M-class solar flares. Credit: SOHO
Quoting altesticstorm10:
2010 > 2005 > 2007.


oughtta be a bannable offense...
JFV been banned and has for MLC he been banned from the hole stille
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Never would have thought that 2005, the "greatest hurricane season of all time", would be on the "less than" side of an inequality > < ... but here it is... any comments?


I highly doupt 2010 will come anywere close to the anomaly of 2005. Keep in mind 05 saw some of the most favorable conditions in every level you can think of. There is lots to be determined before aug-oct come around.

once every 50 year event.
MLC posts under the handle USSINS
Quoting Levi32:


Lol...well someday I'd love to be at one of those things. I've never even been out of Alaska my whole life lol. On my life wish list I want to see cloud-to-ground lightning and experience a real thunderstorm with the downpour, gust front, and everything. Then I want to live through a hurricane without dying lol (jking, but if it was realistic I'd want to).

Levi Johnston?
Quoting StormW:


I try not to use 2005 too much, as that was an anomolous year. The last season to see that much activity was 1933





1933 is just flat scary...21 storms all west of 55 west, not even counting what could have been unobserved out in the eastern Atlantic! That map is the worst it can get for the Caribbean.
Well our local water temps are still ~ 5 degrees below normal. Would be great if that continued all year. A real hurricane shield!
1933 had no CV hurricanes, lol

Why did MLC get banned? He was one of our best users.
Quoting altesticstorm10:

Levi Johnston?


Oh don't go there lol :P
Quoting altesticstorm10:
1933 had no CV hurricanes, lol

Why did MLC get banned? He was one of our best users.


We don't know that 1933 had no CV hurricanes. Remember before weather satellites got launched in the mid-1960s, we had to rely on ships making chance encounters with hurricanes out at sea. For that reason, there is an undercount bias in the hurricane seasons prior to the 1960s. 1933 could very well have had even more storms than 2005 if we had had satellite technology to track them.
.."Stay Thirsty my Friend"..

Tomorrow and Weds,Baton Rouge

2010 Central Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Conference

Presented by C4G and NOAA


March 16th & 17th, 2010 at the Lod Cook Alumni Center
Quoting altesticstorm10:
1933 had no CV hurricanes, lol

Why did MLC get banned? He was one of our best users.


Don't ask. You don't ever visit many of the other blogs, do you...
He got permanently banned for a lot of reasons, but this blog is not the place to discuss it.
Quoting Levi32:


Lol...well someday I'd love to be at one of those things. I've never even been out of Alaska before lol. On my life wish list I want to see cloud-to-ground lightning and experience a real thunderstorm with the downpour, gust front, and everything. Then I want to live through a hurricane without dying lol (jking, but if it was a realistic idea, I'd want to).


I once saw ground to cloud lightning, it went up like an oak tree
Going by what I have read on here, this Hurricane season will not be like 2005. We will not use the Greek alphabet. But yes, I agree with Drak and Levi it will be an above normal season. As far as landfall patterns, it is still too early to tell.
I know JFV got banned for allegedly impersonating Drak, and STORMTOP got banned for having so many handles. However, I'm in the dark with the whole MLC thing...

and Adrian, based on the predictions for this year's hurricane season, signs are actually pointing to "everything favorable" again like '33 or '05 ...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Going by what I have read on here, this Hurricane season will not be like 2005. We will not use the Greek alphabet. But yes, I agree with Drak and Levi it will be an above normal season. As far as landfall patterns, it is still too early to tell.

Where are you getting that from? My prediction falls just 2 names short of the Greek alphabet. Drak's "conservative" prediction falls just 4 names short of the alphabet.
StSimonsIslandGAGuy, good point. 1933 should have had more storms but they wouldn't of known about the ones out in the far east Atlantic.
IRI ECHAM4p5 model forecasted precipitation anomalies for the period June-July-August. Care to guess? Yup...above normal in the Caribbean extending into the tropical Atlantic:

Quoting altesticstorm10:
I know JFV got banned for allegedly impersonating Drak, and STORMTOP got banned for having so many handles. However, I'm in the dark with the whole MLC thing...

and Adrian, based on the predictions for this year's hurricane season, signs are actually pointing to "everything favorable" again like '33 or '05 ...


Conditions are looking quite favorable but it's still March and we have a long way to go. I doubt we'll be having to use Greek names again this year lol. If we're going to compare anything to 2005, it will have to be after the season is over, before we can even begin comparing.

However, whether 2005 was considered an anomaly or not, it's in my analog package due to the conditions that lead up to it, which in and of themselves were not mind-shattering. The storm numbers were, but the atmospheric and oceanic conditions are worth taking into account.

Remember, 2005 is not completely alone in its own class. 1995 and 1933, in similar positions in the climate cycle, were also insane years. Years like 2005 can and will happen. They should not be ignored, especially when we are still in the same climate cycle that caused 2005. That alone should make us pay attention to the conditions that were present during that year.
Thanks HaHaguy. I'm not the first one to post it--have seen it around for at least 3 years. But it seemed relevant.
Adrian, there's not one negative factor expected to hamper the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. At least in '05 we had the dry air and dust in the Central and East Atlantic...
Quoting altesticstorm10:

Where are you getting that from? My prediction falls just 2 names short of the Greek alphabet. Drak's "conservative" prediction falls just 4 names short of the alphabet.


Simple...going by the averages of the bloggers who are in the know. What are your credentials? Or are just a casual blogger like JFV?
I am going for 13 named storms (excluding subtropicals) 7 hurricanes and 3 majors. If we have an average season or a little above average I'll look like a genius :)

Oh. Wait. Who'm I kidding.

I'll look lucky ;)
If I could have a dime for every invest in 2007 which had a good chance to develop but decided not to, I'd buy myself a ticket to the hurricane conference.

On a similar note, if every one of those (or at least, say, 80% of them) had developed in 2007 (instead of dying for no reason), it would have extended into the Greek alphabet and easily rivaled 2005.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Simple...going by the averages of the bloggers who are in the know. What are your credentials? Or are just a casual blogger like JFV?

LOL @ comparing me to JFV. I've been here since 2006, intimately followed hurricanes since 2004. I don't have a degree in meteorology but I'm in the know when it comes to the weather (especially the tropics) Sure, I'm an ex-troll, but when I first signed up on WU I was 13...one of the youngest if not the youngest user ever here. I'm 16 now, about to turn 17 in a few weeks...sophomore in high school.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
Adrian, there's not one negative factor expected to hamper the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. At least in '05 we had the dry air and dust in the Central and East Atlantic...


We'll see what have in 2-3 months. As much as i love tracking and studying tc's personally i'am hoping there will be some lingering nino affects not interested in seeing any lives disrupted. All you can do is prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
Anyone know the accuracy of these three month out pressure and precipitation forecasts? A lot can change in a week, but three months is a very long time.
Quoting StormW:


Possible easterly QBO

Please articulate.
Remember,..Karen's remnants still Lurk the MDR to dis day..


She's Just a lurking trying to find a sweet spot..,still.
Ului is popping out an eye.
Adrian you're totally correct. All you can really do is be prepared. You can speculate on active season all you want, but the most important question is: will you be ready for it?
Quoting Patrap:
Remember,..Karen's remnants still Lurk the MDR to dis day..


She's Just a lurking trying to find a sweet spot..,still.

Are you talking about Hurricane Karen from '07?
Quoting StormW:


An easterly QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) is usually less favorbale for Atlantic Activity. I'm still studying this, but from what I gather, it has something to do with making the atmosphere more "vertical" in the upper levels...from 200mb to 30 mb, or sois my guess, as the wind data that is used is at 50mb and 30 mb. The QBO runs from 15N to 15S. The following shows the phases (positive values are westerly, negative are easterly) The QBO is still not entirely understood, but there have been scientists recently revisiting the idea.


IDK, could go either way this year, we've seen those things ramp up and down. What exactly does it do, provide westerly wind shear, cool down the SSTs, strengthen the Bermuda High, or bring in dry air?
I see some people are already comparing this upcoming season to 2005 lol.
Hmm, I still can't find that comment where I alluded to a prediction for the Chile earthquake. I probably posted it sometime between January 27 and February 11. It discussed SSTs and mentioned the location of the 1960 earthquake, kudos if you can find it.
Quoting Levi32:
IRI ECHAM4p5 model forecasted precipitation anomalies for the period June-July-August. Care to guess? Yup...above normal in the Caribbean extending into the tropical Atlantic:



Hmm, so it looks like we could have some storms heading into Costa Rica or Panama then into the East Pacific.
Here are the new March IRI model precipitation anomaly forecasts for the period June-July-August. The models are the ECHAM4p5, CCM3v6, NSIPP-1, ECPC, and GFDL, in that order:



Quoting StormW:


The ECMWF model, from what I've seen, has been the most accurate at prediciting the probability means.

But now, let's look at this from a meteorologists standpoint. You have all these things that are in motion, that aren't just going to magically reverse...it's an ongoing cycle. The El Nino will not last. We have warmer than average sst anomalies in the MDR and most of the Atlantic. Shear is already below climatology. Rainfall is forecast to be somewhat more in the Sahel. The CFS model has been forecasting a negative NAO after this July...for the past 2-3 months now...it keeps coming up with the same numbers. I could go on and on...point is, with this "reactive" El Nino, and clod PDO, I don't see things putting on the brake, and jumping back the other way.


Couldn't have put it better myself.
Interpreting your map...looks like '05 had a "easterly" QBO as well, whereas '08 was "westerly". 1998 was the most "easterly"...and '09 was "westerly"...doesn't seem like a HUGE factor, based on these years.
Quoting StormW:


An easterly QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation) is usually less favorbale for Atlantic Activity. I'm still studying this, but from what I gather, it has something to do with making the atmosphere more "vertical" in the upper levels...from 200mb to 30 mb, or sois my guess, as the wind data that is used is at 50mb and 30 mb. The QBO runs from 15N to 15S. The following shows the phases (positive values are westerly, negative are easterly) The QBO is still not entirely understood, but there have been scientists recently revisiting the idea.


Trying to connect synapses ignored for (apparently) a little too long...

Initial thoughts are:
1. Reduced lapse rates with slightly warmer tropopause
2. more stratospheric intrusion events? (maybe?)
Yeah Storm, you have a point. I agree, I just think some people may be jumping a little overboard here. You know the tendency of this blog. It very well could turn out that this year will be very active, on the verge of record numbers, as all the ingredients are there. However, I still think a lot can change between now and the peak of the season. Regardless, it deserves to be watched. Fortunately, we still have a lot of time.


2-4: Enhanced Greenhouse Climate, Transient Climate Simulations


Eugene S. Takle
©1997, 2002, 2004, 2005

Introduction

In the previous unit we discussed the equilibrium simulations of global climate in which a model is run with the present greenhouse gas concentrations and then run again with doubled (or in some cases quadrupled) amounts of greenhouse gases. In each model run, the model is allowed to continue until all the effects of initial conditions have died away and the model ocean, atmosphere, and ice masses come into balance with the heating effects of the assumed level of greenhouse gases. This is verified by observing that the global temperatures are not drifting off to a warmer or colder average.
1. Strengthen Wind Shear (any kind)
2. Chill SSTs
3. Bring in Dry Air
4. Cause Downward Phases of MJO/Reduce Convection
5. Bring in Saharan Dust


if it doesn't do one of the above, I don't see it as a major negative contributing factor...


Note Ivan and "Son of Ivan" Track from o4
Quoting Patrap:


2-4: Enhanced Greenhouse Climate, Transient Climate Simulations


Eugene S. Takle
©1997, 2002, 2004, 2005

Introduction

In the previous unit we discussed the equilibrium simulations of global climate in which a model is run with the present greenhouse gas concentrations and then run again with doubled (or in some cases quadrupled) amounts of greenhouse gases. In each model run, the model is allowed to continue until all the effects of initial conditions have died away and the model ocean, atmosphere, and ice masses come into balance with the heating effects of the assumed level of greenhouse gases. This is verified by observing that the global temperatures are not drifting off to a warmer or colder average.


Yeah....all that model shows is a permanent El Nino condition lol. I won't say more than that for now.



Interesting read back,..

Posted by: JeffMasters, 9:40 AM CST on December 14, 2006


The Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is an layer of dry, dusty Saharan air that rides up over the low-level moist air over the tropical Atlantic. At the boundary between the SAL and low-level moist air where the trade winds blow is the trade wind inversion--a region of the atmosphere where the temperature increases with height. Since atmospheric temperature normally decreases with height, this "inversion" acts to but the brakes on any thunderstorms that try to punch through it. This happens because the air in a thunderstorm's updraft suddenly encounters a region where the updraft air is cooler and less buoyant than the surrounding air, and thus will not be able to keep moving upward. The dust in the SAL absorbs solar radiation, which heats the air in the trade wind inversion. This makes the inversion stronger, which inhibits the thunderstorms that power a hurricane. The dust may also act to interfere with the formation of cloud drops and rain drops that these thunderstorms need to grow, but little is known about such effects.



Modeling Climate
What is climate and why do we model it?




Climate refers to the average of weather conditions. It varies on timescales ranging from seasonal to centennial. Fluctuations result naturally from interactions between the ocean, the atmosphere, the land, cryosphere (frozen portion of the Earth's surface), and changes in the Earth's energy balance resulting from volcanic eruptions and variations in the sun's intensity. Since the Industrial Revolution significant changes in radiative forcing (Earth's heat energy balance) have resulted from the build up of greenhouse gases and trace constituents. The impacts on the planet of these anthropogenically-induced or man-made changes to the energy budget have been detected and are projected to become increasingly more important during the next century.

Computer models of the coupled atmosphere-land surface-ocean-sea ice system are essential scientific tools for understanding and predicting natural and human-caused changes in Earth's climate.

Computer models of the coupled atmosphere-land surface-ocean-sea ice system are essential scientific tools for understanding and predicting natural and human-caused changes in Earth's climate.
How do we model climate?

Climate models are systems of differential equations derived from the basic laws of physics, fluid motion, and chemistry formulated to be solved on supercomputers. For the solution the planet is covered by a 3-dimensional grid

Schematic for Global Atmospheric Model

to which the basic equations are applied and evaluated. At each grid point, e.g. for the atmosphere, the motion of the air (winds), heat transfer (thermodynamics), radiation (solar and terrestrial), moisture content (relative humidity) and surface hydrology (precipitation, evaporation, snow melt and runoff) are calculated as well as the interactions of these processes among neighboring points. The computations are stepped forward in time from seasons to centuries depending on the study.

State-of-the-art climate models now include interactive representations of the ocean, the atmosphere, the land, hydrologic and cryospheric processes, terrestrial and oceanic carbon cycles, and atmospheric chemistry.

The accuracy of climate models is limited by grid resolution and our ability to describe the complicated atmospheric, oceanic, and chemical processes mathematically. Much of the research in OAR is directed at improving the representation of these processes. Despite some imperfections, models simulate remarkably well current climate and its variability. More capable supercomputers enable significant model improvements by allowing for more accurate representation of currently unresolved physics.
288. Thanks Patrap, quite an interesting read.
Quoting Ossqss:
288. Thanks Patrap, quite an interesting read.


Yeah,..good stuff for sure,and the series is well rounded with a lot of current info
Quoting altesticstorm10:
1. Strengthen Wind Shear (any kind)
2. Chill SSTs
3. Bring in Dry Air
4. Cause Downward Phases of MJO/Reduce Convection
5. Bring in Saharan Dust


if it doesn't do one of the above, I don't see it as a major negative contributing factor...

We obviously don't have a full handle on relative contributions of each of the players. Sure, we know a few certain things have a large effect (like Nino-induced shear), though, but some simply haven't been measured for all that long (like our whopping 10 years of stratospheric water vapor measurements).

And some of the things we were sure were huge contributers, such as warmer than normal SSTs, can be trumped. Yes, a lot of the ones we are familiar with are looking favorable, so far.

BUT, if I am remembering correctly (yeah, fat chance, just ask my wife) if a QBO induces stratospheric intrusion events in the easterly phase, that would generate significant upper level shear and dump a lot of dry air into the upper troposphere.

Or, we could just go ahead and evacuate now...


Global Warming and Hurricanes

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory,GFDL




The strongest hurricanes in the present climate may be upstaged by even more intense hurricanes over the next century as the earth's climate is warmed by increasing levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Most hurricanes do not reach their maximum potential intensity before weakening over land or cooler ocean regions. However, those storms that do approach their upper-limit intensity are expected to be slightly stronger in the warmer climate due to the higher sea surface temperatures.

According to a new simulation study by a group of scientists at NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), a 5-12% increase in wind speeds for the strongest hurricanes (typhoons) in the northwest tropical Pacific is projected if tropical sea surfaces warm by a little over 2C (Figure 1). Recent preliminary findings indicate that these results may apply to the other tropical cyclone basins as well. Such an increase in the upper-limit intensity of hurricanes with global warming was suggested on theoretical grounds a decade ago, but the NOAA investigation is the first to examine the question using a hurricane prediction model that can simulate realistic hurricane structures.

In the present day climate, the maximum observed intensities of tropical cyclones appear to be correlated with the underlying sea surface temperatures, with the strongest storms observed over relatively warm ocean waters. However, the GFDL modeling results, as well as theories of maximum tropical cyclone intensities, indicate that both sea surface temperatures and the atmospheric temperature profile in the environment around the storm are among the important factors in determining how strong a tropical cyclone can become. Therefore, assessing the possible influence of global warming on tropical cyclone intensities involves accounting for the influence of both warmer ocean waters and of changes in the atmospheric temperature profile.

tropical storm simulation

Fig 2 Top: a tropical storm as simulated in the global climate model. Shown are surface temperature (shading), winds and sea level pressure. Bottom: the same storm case, but as simulated with the hurricane prediction model. Shown are surface winds and precipitation on the inner grid of the hurricane model. The vector spacing illustrates the resolution of the two models (250 km for the global model vs. 18 km for the hurricane model.)

To address this problem, the NOAA group used the high-resolution GFDL hurricane prediction model to "telescope in" on a selected sample of storm cases from long (120 year) simulations of the GFDL global climate model (Figure 2). The coarsely resolved storms in the global model were replaced by more realistic storm initial conditions in the hurricane model using a procedure analogous to that employed for operational hurricane predictions at NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction. Importantly, the large-scale environments from the global climate model were retained and allowed to influence the development of the storms in the regional model.

A large sample (n=51) of individual storm cases were then simulated for present day climate conditions and compared with a second sample of 51 cases under greenhouse gas-warmed climate conditions. The comparison showed a 5-12% increase in surface wind speeds for the the high CO2 storms (Figure 1). The simulations also showed a substantial increase (28%) in near-storm rainfall in the high CO2 cases (Figure 3). Such changes in wind intensity and precipitation, if they occurred, could have important societal consequences.

The approach of linking the large scale environments from the global climate model together with the high resolution hurricane model was necessary because the global climate models currently used for greenhouse warming studies have a spatial resolution that is too coarse (with model gridpoints spaced typically 250 km apart) to simulate the most intense hurricanes or certain features of hurricanes such as the eye. Future efforts will involve incorporating other possibly important effects in the simulations, such as allowing the storm in the hurricane model to influence the underlying sea surface temperature through mixing of cooler ocean waters up to the surface. The present study also does not address the issue of possible future changes in the frequency of occurrence of tropical cyclones.
Did you all see the Sun eat a comet last week? I have not seen that prior.. SDO is coming online soon. Should be some incredible info coming from that puppy. I really wish it was operational for the CME that recently occurred. Lots of stuff going on up there right now.

Here is the clip of the comet and the link. L8R :)

http://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=14&month=03&year=2010,, sorry , fixed it
ossgss, looks like the cbs logo.
Quoting atmoaggie:

We obviously don't have a full handle on relative contributions of each of the players. Sure, we know a few certain things have a large effect (like Nino-induced shear), though, but some simply haven't been measured for all that long (like our whopping 10 years of stratospheric water vapor measurements).

And some of the things we were sure were huge contributers, such as warmer than normal SSTs, can be trumped. Yes, a lot of the ones we are familiar with are looking favorable, so far.

BUT, if I am remembering correctly (yeah, fat chance, just ask my wife) if a QBO induces stratospheric intrusion events in the easterly phase, that would generate significant upper level shear and dump a lot of dry air into the upper troposphere.

Or, we could just go ahead and evacuate now...

1. As per Levi's maps, the wind shear's expected to be well below average in the entire Atlantic except where the jet stream is supposed to be, in a subtropical shear zone and slightly above average in the Northeastern GOM. That's not a worry for TC's, however; by the time a hurricane makes it to the Gulf it'll likely have an anticyclone hovering on top of it like an angel to guard it from the shear anyway.

2. The entire Atlantic MDR and Caribbean is expected to be moister than average during the peak months of hurricane season... yeah, another one of Levi's maps, but the dry air isn't exactly fixing to be prevolant as it was in 2007.
I could be really far off the mark here and embarrass myself, and I haven't found much to read about the QBO that was detailed enough, but I'm just brainstorming here. Take a look at this, showing the changes in stratospheric winds associated with the QBO:



It looks to me like as the phases change, the easterlies seem to come down through the Stratosphere in a rather erratic fashion, with a lot of bumps and sudden jerks. The westerlies, however, which are dominant in the lower levels, propagate quite rapidly and smoothly into the lower Stratosphere when phases switch.

In a general sense then what this means is that when the easterlies come down, they do it more slowly, a gradual process from the top of the air column to the bottom. This results in easterly winds laying on top of westerly winds during a phase change from westerly phase to easterly. However, during the opposite phase change from easterly to westerly, the westerlies overtake the entire atmospheric column rather fast and smoothly, easily becoming dominant in the lower Stratosphere in a short time.

So here's an idea. When the easterlies are coming down, they spend a good deal of time laying on top of low-level westerlies near the tropopause, while radically jumping downwards. Maybe this creates some sort of horizontal vorticity (think rotating column of air lying on its side between the two layers of opposing winds). This could cause a sort of cascade of "logs" of air rolling down from the top of air column to the bottom, sending pulses of downward air motion crashing into the top of the troposphere. This would tend to inhibit deep convection at the top of the troposphere, and reduce hot-tower events, thunderstorms breaching the tropopause. It could also throw batches of freeze-dried stratospheric air into the upper troposphere.

I haven't done heavy physics yet, but is this possible? I'm really trying to understand the QBO lol.
The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO)

Marco Giorgetta, Elisa Manzini



The general circulation of the atmosphere exhibits various modes of variability, each with its characteristic domain and scales. Within the equatorial stratosphere, the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal wind is the dominating mode of climate variability because of its outstanding structure in space and time, and the QBO plays an important role in the interpretation of observed variations in the distribution of ozone and other chemicals in the whole stratosphere. For a general review on the QBO, see Baldwin et al. (2001).



* The QBO in observations and reanalyses

Simulating the QBO in a general circulation model, therefore, has been an important issue for many years, both for the understanding of the QBO as well as for its effects. MAECHAM5 allows the simulation of the QBO if the vertical resolution is chosen adequately

* The QBO in MAECHAM5.2 T42 L90

Recent work has focused on the sensitivity of the QBO to CO2 doubling (Giorgetta and Doege, 2005) and on the analysis of the climatology and forcing of the QBO in MAECHAM5 (Giorgetta et al., 2005). The first QBO simulation in MAECHAM5 has been shown in Giorgetta et al. (2002). It was found that the QBO in MAECHAM5 depends by and large equally on resolved wave mean-flow interaction and parameterized gravity wave drag. The parameterization of deep convection plays an important role in the excitation of the resolved tropical wave spectrum. Large differences in the characteristics of different parameterizations and resulting spectra have been identified in the intercomparison of middle atmosphere GCMs by Horinouchi et al. (2003).


Older studies based on ECHAM4 in conjunction with QBO assimilation have shown that the QBO feeds back to the Asian monsoon system (Giorgetta et al., 1999). Further it was shown that the QBO modulates the atmospheric tape recorder signal (moisture anomalies) both in strength and in velocity (Giorgetta and Bengtsson, 1999).



Quoting StormW:


I am looking for that in JUN/JUL if the CFS keeps its forecast and it's accurate...after that....

If the CFS is accurate, we could get more dust in the first two months of hurricane season? Well...let's not forget that enormous dust breakout in July-August 2005.

Quoting hahaguy:
ossgss, looks like the cbs logo.


LoL, good to see ya. You might be right :)

Quoting altesticstorm10:

If the CFS is accurate, we could get more dust in the first two months of hurricane season? Well...let's not forget that enormous dust breakout in July-August 2005.



CFS is forecasting a fairly moist (or at least normal) western Sahel throughout the hurricane season:

Good to see you to ossgss. Evil cbs is taking over lol.
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Levi I have no idea if that explanation was right, but the way your brain thinks is really special. I really hope you keep up your passion for meteorology, as I think you have a great combination of being able to understand complex events and explain them in a very simple manner. You're a great communicator.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Levi I have no idea if that explanation was right, but the way your brain thinks is really special. I really hope you keep up your passion for meteorology, as I think you have a great combination of being able to understand complex events and explain them in a very simple manner. You're a great communicator.


Well thanks SDF. I'm still waiting for Atmo to make my cheeks go red with a really obvious physical explanation for why I'm wrong...lol.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Levi I have no idea if that explanation was right, but the way your brain thinks is really special. I really hope you keep up your passion for meteorology, as I think you have a great combination of being able to understand complex events and explain them in a very simple manner. You're a great communicator.

People said that about a certain "girl" user who turned out to be fake. Just saying... :P

Ahh, I'm bored...when does the next SST map (Mar 15) come out? F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 F5 OWW MY HANDS HURT LOL

Re: post 301...Very interesting link Ossgss.
Thanks!
Not only does 2010 have greater SST's but also greater TCHP:

2005:


2010:
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
Not only does 2010 have greater SST's but also greater TCHP:

2005:


2010:


I don't like how they put a smoother on the data from recent years. To me it's like smoothing radar imagery...it looks cool but at some level it still distorts the actual data pixels.
And waaaay more than 2008:

I agree Levi. You win some, you lose some.
hey Fish, where did you get all those 2005 and 2008 maps? Thanks.

Air Force Col. Ron Solberg, commander of the 119th Support Group of the North Dakota National Guard, right, addresses full-time North Dakota Air National Guard personnel as he initiates personnel mobilization plans for regional flood contingency operations beginning in the Red River Valley in Fargo, N.D., March 15, 2010. U.S. Air Force photo by Senior Master Sgt. David H. Lipp


North Dakota Guard Mobilizes for Flood Duty


American Forces Press Service
FARGO, N.D., March 15, 2010 –

The North Dakota National Guard will mobilize soldiers and airmen to begin flood operations for seven of the state’s southeastern counties today and tomorrow.

The Red River in eastern North Dakota and western Minnesota is expected to crest about 20 feet above flood stage and three feet below last year's record crest by March 20.

The Guardsmen will serve in Steele, Traill, Barnes, Cass, Ransom, Sargent and Richland counties. Some 300 to 400 Guardsmen will be mobilized “with boots on the ground” by tomorrow, said Air Force Col. Ronald Solberg, the North Dakota National Guard’s emergency operations commander for Region 4, which includes those counties.

Working in 12-hour shifts, the Guardsmen will conduct a variety of flood-related missions, including traffic control, logistical and supply support, sandbagging and creating rows of barriers.

"Airmen and soldiers will begin traffic control points in Lisbon and Fargo today," Solberg said.
Good evening Patrap, Levi, SDF, and everyone else. What a beautiful night on the AL coast.
Quoting altesticstorm10:
hey Fish, where did you get all those 2005 and 2008 maps? Thanks.


I'm just taking the ones from the AOML page and changing the year in the URL bar lol
Quoting msgambler:
Good evening Patrap, Levi, SDF, and everyone else. What a beautiful night on the AL coast.


Evening msgambler,
Ah Ului looks so much better now :)

It appears that the upper low northeast of her center, which degenerated into a trough this morning, is continuing to dissipate, and Ului is starting to gradually mix out the dry air and rebuild her eyewall. If she can keep this up she may hit Cat 4 again before her turn south.





^^Click the Visible Image for Loop^^
Quoting msgambler:
Good evening Patrap, Levi, SDF, and everyone else. What a beautiful night on the AL coast.


Evening Gambler.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:


I'm just taking the ones from the AOML page and changing the year in the URL bar lol

Shoot, never knew I could do that.. thanks :P
Quoting msgambler:
Good evening Patrap, Levi, SDF, and everyone else. What a beautiful night on the AL coast.


Good evening, and I could say the same about the South Florida coast :~)
Quoting Levi32:
I could be really far off the mark here and embarrass myself, and I haven't found much to read about the QBO that was detailed enough, but I'm just brainstorming here. Take a look at this, showing the changes in stratospheric winds associated with the QBO:



It looks to me like as the phases change, the easterlies seem to come down through the Stratosphere in a rather erratic fashion, with a lot of bumps and sudden jerks. The westerlies, however, which are dominant in the lower levels, propagate quite rapidly and smoothly into the lower Stratosphere when phases switch.

In a general sense then what this means is that when the easterlies come down, they do it more slowly, a gradual process from the top of the air column to the bottom. This results in easterly winds laying on top of westerly winds during a phase change from westerly phase to easterly. However, during the opposite phase change from easterly to westerly, the westerlies overtake the entire atmospheric column rather fast and smoothly, easily becoming dominant in the lower Stratosphere in a short time.

So here's an idea. When the easterlies are coming down, they spend a good deal of time laying on top of low-level westerlies near the tropopause, while radically jumping downwards. Maybe this creates some sort of horizontal vorticity (think rotating column of air lying on its side between the two layers of opposing winds). This could cause a sort of cascade of "logs" of air rolling down from the top of air column to the bottom, sending pulses of downward air motion crashing into the top of the troposphere. This would tend to inhibit deep convection at the top of the troposphere, and reduce hot-tower events, thunderstorms breaching the tropopause. It could also throw batches of freeze-dried stratospheric air into the upper troposphere.

I haven't done heavy physics yet, but is this possible? I'm really trying to understand the QBO lol.

The erratic, almost fighting, phase change to easterly is exactly what I think is associated with everything else you describe...called stratospheric intrusion. (Seriously, I think you've got it figured well)

a. k. a. tropopause folds.

A little detail here: http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/SEES/ozone/class/Chap_6/6_5.htm (at bottom)

This isn't a well-studied subject, IMO.

Plus, I am seeing that trop folding can introduce added vorticity into the troposphere. That would only help a TC should all else be good conditions...but would have to compete with very dry air and, in the presence of a easterly QBO (I think), more shear. (just considering the opposing wind directions)
Interesting SST info. I wonder if the cold SE US could have played a role in setting up the warming to the Southeast?? All those deep pushing fronts and some of the extra-tropical dynamics in place in the Northern Atlantic, let alone the Brazil item. Is there a squeezing dynamic out there? Just curious :)
Quoting Levi32:


Well thanks SDF. I'm still waiting for Atmo to make my cheeks go red with a really obvious physical explanation for why I'm wrong...lol.

Awww, come on. You do just fine.
There's still something really off about the 200mb winds along her north and east spiral band though...I never could figure out if the upper disturbance could really be that intimately close to the storm, it's hard to tell.

Quoting atmoaggie:

Awww, come on. You do just fine.


Lol, so are you saying my idea has merit? I figured you of all people here would know if it was a physical possibility.

EDIT: just saw your reply that went down the page really fast. I'll read it now.
Yeah Levi, outflow in the eastern semicircle is greatly improving, and her eye is starting to clear out. ADT estimates will bomb shortly.


HOMEWARD BOUND - U.S. Marines disembark the amphibious dock landing ship USS Fort McHenry in Morehead City, N.C., March 13, 2010. The Fort McHenry has completed participation in Operation Unified Response to provide humanitarian support to Haiti after a devastating earthquake, and is returning to homeport in Little Creek, Va. U.S. Navy
335. MTWX
Quoting msgambler:
Good evening Patrap, Levi, SDF, and everyone else. What a beautiful night on the AL coast.

That wind finally die down along the coast??
not trying to change the subject here but just saw the new from Ma. and they have many parts under some serious water in the Boston area. Didn't realize it was that bad
Good evening folks

With only two months and change to go for the start of the season I see that attention has turned in that direction. Interestingly, I have often thought that having many cold fronts sweep down into the Caribbean would lead to a slow start for the season due to low SST from the cold air aloft lowering the water temps.

While I have no statistics to show the relationship between an active cold front season into the Caribbean and an active or inactive hurricane season I do recall being surprised more than once as to how quickly SST rebounded from "cold" Caribbean winters and went on to support active hurricane seasons.

So far this winter season we have had multiple cold fronts swing down into the NW caribbean, sometimes two a week with day time temps in the 60s being recorded in both Feb. and March.

When this has happened in the past my recollection is that we have seen active hurricane seasons follow which sounds couterintuitive but there it is.

Colder than normal winters in the NW Caribbean are no doubt associated with colder than normal winters in the SE US which in turn is linked to El Nino and the NAO induced colder winters in the SE. La Nina or neutral conditions usually follow El Nino winters so I suppose it stands to reason that when we experience "cold" winters in the NW caribbean the odds of an above average season are on the table due to La Nina or neutral conditions following.

Time will tell.
Hows da Barbeque tonight Kman,.?


Ului




evening kman nice to see ya drop by a little early yet though
Quoting atmoaggie:

The erratic, almost fighting, phase change to easterly is exactly what I think is associated with everything else you describe...called stratospheric intrusion. (Seriously, I think you've got it figured well)

a. k. a. tropopause folds.

A little detail here: http://www.ccpo.odu.edu/SEES/ozone/class/Chap_6/6_5.htm (at bottom)

This isn't a well-studied subject, IMO.

Plus, I am seeing that trop folding can introduce added vorticity into the troposphere. That would only help a TC should all else be good conditions...but would have to compete with very dry air and, in the presence of a easterly QBO (I think), more shear. (just considering the opposing wind directions)


Thanks Atmo. That is interesting. The added vorticity could be the very reason why an easterly QBO doesn't always significantly dampen an Atlantic hurricane season (e.g. 2005). The inconsistencies are such that it seems things like anomalously warm SSTs or moist mid-upper atmosphere can somewhat easily overwhelm the negative effects of the QBO and take advantage of the positive ones. That's assuming the folding actually occurs in tropical latitudes and lends that vorticity to tropical systems.

In fact Dr. Gray stopped using the QBO in his December Forecast scheme due to the drop-off in correlation to Atlantic hurricane activity over recent years. He also dropped West African rainfall due to lack of correlation. He has found no explanation for either.

From his December 2009 Forecast:

"This was due to the discontinuation of the strong relationships we had earlier found between West African rainfall and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with Atlantic basin major hurricane activity 6-11 months in the future. We did not expect these African rainfall and QBO predictive relationships that had worked so well during the 41-year period from 1950-1990 to stop working. We do not yet have a good explanation. We have discontinued this earlier 1 December forecast scheme and have developed two new 1 December forecast schemes (Schemes B and C) since that time."
Quoting Levi32:


Lol, so are you saying my idea has merit? I figured you of all people here would know if it was a physical possibility.

EDIT: just saw your reply that went down the page really fast. I'll read it now.

Ehhh, I cannot find anything that relates QBO to tropical intrusions. They are a mostly mid and high latitude phenomenon...more common there at least.

I dunno...
Is StormW still up or did he go to bed?
Interesting note: In 2005, a major warming period in the Atlantic occurred within 10 days: April 19 - 29th. A big difference.


April 19, 2005 (Not much better than today's SSTs in fact, with the exception of the warmer southern Gulf).


April 29, 2005 (Major difference, much hotter, now let's compare that with a couple other "active" years...)


April 29, 2007 (not bad, but the MDR is much cooler)


April 29, 2008 (this hurricane season did have an SST problem.)
Hi Pat and Keeper

Never too early to drop in LOL.

The BBQ grill is working just fine although there have been a few times when stiff NW winds have been a challenge this winter !.

Interesting season coming without Quikscat to resolve questions of " closed or not closed " circulations. Ascat is pretty much hit or miss at the best of times so classifying systems far out in the Atl. will no doubt provide much fodder for debate.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ehhh, I cannot find anything that relates QBO to tropical intrusions. They are a mostly mid and high latitude phenomenon...more common there at least.

I dunno...


Well it's an intriguing thing to study. Storm said he had a few papers on the subject that he was going to share sometime.
Quoting MTWX:

That wind finally die down along the coast??
Yeah, yesterday was a little windy but was calm from about 9am this morning on. It has been a beautiful day. We have had the doors and windows open taking advantage of the free air freshener
Quoting kmanislander:
Hi Pat and Keeper

Never too early to drop in LOL.

The BBQ grill is working just fine although there have been a few times when stiff NW winds have been a challenge this winter !.

Interesting season coming without Quikscat to resolve questions of " closed or not closed " circulations. Ascat is pretty much hit or miss at the best of times so classifying systems far out in the Atl. will no doubt provide much fodder for debate.



Was a funny thing Kman,..I met Hurricane Forecaster Avila the Day Quikscat Failed Nov 24th as he was at the Cuban US Hurricane Conference that day here in NOLA.

He said that we have ASCAT and other ones to augment the Loss,but that he would keep us safe ..


Avila was a Speaker that day and had some fine words too.

My entry on that day and some pics.

US-Cuba Conference

Levi, an excellent mid-latitude case study: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/2169
Quoting TampaSpin:
Is StormW still up or did he go to bed?


He's probably lurking around somewhere.
Quoting hahaguy:


He's probably lurking around somewhere.


Beauty of cell texting always will get him....LOL
Just to let everyone know.....i just got off the phone with StormW and got him all paid for the NHC Conference.....He is good to go! Again, Thank you all for the donations made to send StormW to the Conference. IT WAS MONEY WELL SPENT. Hopefully he won't be too busy this Hurricane Season but, all indications are he will be one very busy person helping to protect us.
355. MTWX
I've been reading this blog for the last 5 years, and finally became a member a short while ago... Just a question? How many of you have a Meteorology degree?? I've been trying off and on to work on mine... Just not sure if that is what I want to do the rest of my life you know??
Quoting Patrap:



Was a funny thing Kman,..I met Hurricane Forecaster Avila the Day Quikscat Failed Nov 23 as he was at the Cuban US Hurricane Conference that day here in NOLA.

He said that we have ASCAT and other ones to augment the Loss,but that he would keep us safe ..


Avila was a Speaker that day and had some fine words too.

My entry on that day and some pics.

US-Cuba Conference



Thanks for sharing. After spending several seasons waiting for the morning or evening pass of QS it will be a somewhat strange experienece not waiting for each pass to see whether we have a closed system or just something that looks like it. Ascat has great resolution but the swath is so small that catching the area you want to see is 50/50 at best.

Anything further East of the Islands by more than 500 miles or so will be resolved primarily by ship reports, buoys and other empirical tools. Still, within range of deployment the HH aircraft are available along with all the other tools so I understand Avila's remarks.
357. xcool
Quoting MTWX:
I've been reading this blog for the last 5 years, and finally became a member a short while ago... Just a question? How many of you have a Meteorology degree?? I've been trying off and on to work on mine... Just not sure if that is what I want to do the rest of my life you know??


Believe it or not but, not many on here have a MET degree but, many no more than most peeps with Met degrees. One does not have to have a degree in Meteorology to be considered a Meterologist. I believe StormW pointed that out to us last year.
Quoting MTWX:
I've been reading this blog for the last 5 years, and finally became a member a short while ago... Just a question? How many of you have a Meteorology degree?? I've been trying off and on to work on mine... Just not sure if that is what I want to do the rest of my life you know??

There are a few of us about...not that it gets us anywhere in here. A self-taught enthusiast has the capability of teach someone with a degree a thing or two in most any field...happens here to.

I, personally, cannot imagine doing anything else, but there are parts of the met field I want nothing at all to do with.
Quoting atmoaggie:

There are a few of us about...not that it gets us anywhere in here. A self-taught enthusiast has the capability of teach someone with a degree a thing or two in most any field...happens here to.

I, personally, cannot imagine doing anything else, but there are parts of the met field I want nothing at all to do with.


Give yourself some credit. YOu are dam good and you know it as well as many on here. You are a tremendous asset to this blog. Thank you!
Quoting atmoaggie:
Levi, an excellent mid-latitude case study: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/archives/2169


Wow that's very nice, and interesting, thanks for the link.
Levi, I hate to assume, but you've probably seen this already, right?

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/atlantic/index.html
(all of it is good, but the relevant portions will have to be searched out)

Specifically:
"In a comparative analysis, the frequency of named/subtropical storms is most strongly altered by sea level pressure variations followed by 200mb zonal winds, the stratospheric QBO and Atlantic SSTs. However, the total frequency of events distorts large regional differences based upon latitudinal variations. For southerly latitude formations the primary interannual forcing is due to sea level pressure and Atlantic SST variations. These effects are followed by changes associated with Western Sahel rainfall and 200mb zonal winds. The same factors - with the exception of Atlantic SSTs - also appear to strongly modulate Caribbean hurricane strikes Only two factors were found that had a homogeneous, basinwide effect. ENSO and the stratospheric QBO both show reduced activity throughout the Atlantic basin during warm events and east phases, respectively. However, effects were most pronounced in the southern portion of the basin. Opposite effects between tropical cyclones forming in the southerly and northerly portion of the basin are seen most strongly for the Atlantic SSTs and the West Sahel rainfall, with a weaker signal present in the sea level pressure anomalies. Along the U.S. coastline, the factors of sea level pressures, ENSO and West Sahel rainfall have the largest effects on number of hurricane strikes. Again, this is dependent upon location, however. For the East Coast, interannual variations of intense hurricane strikes are best related to ENSO, West Sahel rainfall and 200mb zonal winds. For intense hurricane strikes along the Gulf Coast, the single largest factor is the phase of the QBO followed by the 200mb zonal winds and sea level pressure anomalies both in an opposite sense where westerly winds and high pressures in the Caribbean favor more strikes."

This is from Chris Landsea, former student of Bill Gray. Same guy as that Eos paper showing the 1933 and 2005 seasons. Landsea is my hero. ;-)
Quoting MTWX:
I've been reading this blog for the last 5 years, and finally became a member a short while ago... Just a question? How many of you have a Meteorology degree?? I've been trying off and on to work on mine... Just not sure if that is what I want to do the rest of my life you know??


The majority of us that post here are simply weather enthusiasts but a few do hold qualifications in the field and bring a depth to the discussion that can be fascinating.

Being a lawyer myself, I rely on my debating skills when my armchair meteorology is under challenge LOL
364. xcool



Gulf of Mexico ...
365. MTWX
I would never want to be a forecaster... I have actually learned a lot from this blog!! That is really why I signed up, so I have the ability to ask questions when I have them. I am quite aquainted with severe weather from hail/tornadoes to winter storms, but I didn't get a taste for hurricanes until I witnessed Ivan first hand in 2004 when I lived on the gulf coast.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Just to let everyone know.....i just got off the phone with StormW and got him all paid for the NHC Conference.....He is good to go! Again, Thank you all for the donations made to send StormW to the Conference. I WAS MONEY WELL SPENT. Hopefully he won't be to busy this Hurricane Season but, all indications are he will be one very busy person helping to protect us.


That is "Fantastic"
"Great Work my Friend"

Taco :0)
367. MTWX
Quoting kmanislander:


The majority of us that post here are simply weather enthusiasts but a few do hold qualifications in the field and bring a depth to the discussion that can be fascinating.

Being a lawyer myself, I rely on my debating skills when my armchair meteorolgy is under challenge LOL

Haven't seen you in a while!!! What do you think of the projections for this season Kman?
Quoting TampaSpin:


Give yourself some credit. YOu are dam good and you know it as well as many on here. You are a tremendous asset to this blog. Thank you!

But there are no freebies...Bappit(?) busted me on Friday (?) as he should have.
(I was sleep-typing...that's my excuse and I am sticking to it)
Quoting atmoaggie:
Levi, I hate to assume, but you've probably seen this already, right?

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/atlantic/index.html
(all of it is good, but the relevant portions will have to be searched out)

Specifically:
"In a comparative analysis, the frequency of named/subtropical storms is most strongly altered by sea level pressure variations followed by 200mb zonal winds, the stratospheric QBO and Atlantic SSTs. However, the total frequency of events distorts large regional differences based upon latitudinal variations. For southerly latitude formations the primary interannual forcing is due to sea level pressure and Atlantic SST variations. These effects are followed by changes associated with Western Sahel rainfall and 200mb zonal winds. The same factors - with the exception of Atlantic SSTs - also appear to strongly modulate Caribbean hurricane strikes Only two factors were found that had a homogeneoushomogeneous, basinwide effect. ENSO and the stratospheric QBO both show reduced activity throughout the Atlantic basin during warm events and east phases, respectively. However, effects were most pronounced in the southern portion of the basin. Opposite effects between tropical cyclones forming in the southerly and northerly portion of the basin are seen most strongly for the Atlantic SSTs and the West Sahel rainfall, with a weaker signal present in the sea level pressure anomalies. Along the U.S. coastline, the factors of sea level pressures, ENSO and West Sahel rainfall have the largest effects on number of hurricane strikes. Again, this is dependent upon location, however. For the East Coast, interannual variations of intense hurricane strikes are best related to ENSO, West Sahel rainfall and 200mb zonal winds. For intense hurricane strikes along the Gulf Coast, the single largest factor is the phase of the QBO followed by the 200mb zonal winds and sea level pressure anomalies both in an opposite sense where westerly winds and high pressures in the Caribbean favor more strikes."

This is from Chris Landsea, former student of Bill Gray. Same guy as that Eos paper showing the 1933 and 2005 seasons. Landsea is my hero. ;-)


Actually, no lol, hadn't seen it. I'm not sure how I miss these things on sites I regularly visit, but thanks for bringing it up. Those are some interesting findings by Landsea. I love it when people like him do the statistical homework and discover the best correlations like that. I'll have to read through the whole version of that paper.
What is going to be critical in the coming months is how well the SSTS stay above-average in truly determining what kind of season we may be in for. While we are noting current SSTs surpassing those of the active 2005, that could change easily if the tradewind speeds pick up with a positive NAO. The negative phase of the NAO became predominant after January in 2005 during the period of warming.
Quoting xcool:



Gulf of Mexico ...

Reminds me of a sore throat...


I'm not an asset to this blog because I've never made key analysis statements and conclusions, I've never posted a single map or illustration with annotations in my life, I don't have a sense of humor, I don't make exciting polls and posts during hurricane season, I don't know anything about the tropics (I don't even care about the tropics) and I've never contributed with my own time and my own blogs att all since I first showed up in 2006.

Yeah. I'm not an asset to this blog. Oh yeah, and I'm a 16 year old Texan, so I'm double disqualified.
Anyway it was good to stop by. I have found that the site takes almost 30 seconds to refresh for me and that has been going on for weeks. Not sure why that is but hope it goes away before June 1st.

Take care and catch you all soon.
373. xcool
;)
Quoting atmoaggie:

But there are no freebies...Bappit(?) busted me on Friday (?) as he should have.
(I was sleep-typing...that's my excuse and I am sticking to it)


LMAO......you kinda stick your neck out there as i always do...that gets me into trouble! Its all good tho! YOU CAN HANDLE IT better than me!....HEHEHEHEHE
Quoting altesticstorm10:

Reminds me of a sore throat...


I'm not an asset to this blog because I've never made key analysis statements and conclusions, I've never posted a single map or illustration with annotations in my life, I don't have a sense of humor, I don't make exciting polls and posts during hurricane season, I don't know anything about the tropics (I don't even care about the tropics) and I've never contributed with my own time and my own blogs att all since I first showed up in 2006.

Yeah. I'm not an asset to this blog. Oh yeah, and I'm a 16 year old Texan, so I'm double disqualified.

LOL! (Really did chuckle...)
376. MTWX
Quoting xcool:



Gulf of Mexico ...

Is that the Loop Current??
378. xcool
"I'm Ready hurricane season .last year was sooo bored .!!!!
Quoting MTWX:

Haven't seen you in a while!!! What do you think of the projections for this season Kman?


Early indicators point to an above average season but history has shown that early season forecasts are little better than rolling the dice. That said, if we get La Nina or neutral conditions ( which seems probable ) coupled with average or low dust values coming off the W coast of Africa a season with 14 named systems would be my best guess this far out.

380. xcool
MTWX yep.
381. MTWX
Quoting altesticstorm10:

Reminds me of a sore throat...


I'm not an asset to this blog because I've never made key analysis statements and conclusions, I've never posted a single map or illustration with annotations in my life, I don't have a sense of humor, I don't make exciting polls and posts during hurricane season, I don't know anything about the tropics (I don't even care about the tropics) and I've never contributed with my own time and my own blogs att all since I first showed up in 2006.

Yeah. I'm not an asset to this blog. Oh yeah, and I'm a 16 year old Texan, so I'm double disqualified.

LOL!! I like to see young people in here eager to learn though... You don't see that very often nowadays!!!
Quoting altesticstorm10:

Reminds me of a sore throat...


I'm not an asset to this blog because I've never made key analysis statements and conclusions, I've never posted a single map or illustration with annotations in my life, I don't have a sense of humor, I don't make exciting polls and posts during hurricane season, I don't know anything about the tropics (I don't even care about the tropics) and I've never contributed with my own time and my own blogs att all since I first showed up in 2006.

Yeah. I'm not an asset to this blog. Oh yeah, and I'm a 16 year old Texan, so I'm double disqualified.


Actually that makes you a professional compared to the many we hear from!
Gnite folks
Another somewhat aged report from Landsea: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/seasonal/index.html

"An east QBO phase (typically lasting 12 to 15 months) forces strong easterly winds in the lower stratosphere between 10 and 15 N and with it large amounts of vertical wind shear from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere. The west QBO phase (typically lasting 13 to 16 months) allows for weak easterly winds in the tropical North Atlantic stratosphere and for low amounts of vertical wind shear. Large amounts of this vertical wind shear is hypothesized to inhibit genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones. Thus years of west QBO phases typically have 50% more named storms, 60% more hurricanes, and 200% more intense hurricanes than occur in east QBO phases within the Atlantic basin. "

HOLY CRAP! Can the effect really be that strong?
385. xcool
kmanislander bye
later kman
Quoting kmanislander:
Gnite folks


Have a Good Evening MF :0)

But TampaSpin that was so "Funny" from post 382
LMBO

Taco :0)
388. MTWX
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Man has that fault off of Chile been active!!!!
Quoting Drakoen:
What is going to be critical in the coming months is how well the SSTS stay above-average in truly determining what kind of season we may be in for. While we are noting current SSTs surpassing those of the active 2005, that could change easily if the tradewind speeds pick up with a positive NAO. The negative phase of the NAO became predominant after January in 2005 during the period of warming.


Yup. It is important to watch these things right through May before sealing the fate of the season in stone, and even then things can change a lot during the course of the season. May and June are very important months when monitoring surface pressures in the Atlantic and western Sahel rainfall.

These were the MSLP anomalies in March, 2005. Notice the weak Azores High similar to this year, which weakened trade winds and allowed the tropical Atlantic to heat up.

Quoting MTWX:

Man has that fault off of Chile been active!!!!

yep and more to come i reckon
Hehe.

"A simple study of the relationship between the QBO and the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, both in the Basin and hitting the U.S. coastline, demonstrates that the QBO is not a particularly useful index to help predict hurricane numbers on five-year time scales. It is shown that there is very little difference between the number of hurricanes following easterly winds in the equatorial stratosphere and the number that follow westerly winds. Given this it is reasonable one would make better predictions just using the mean number of hurricanes in lieu of using the QBO and this is also simply demonstrated here. "

http://arxiv4.library.cornell.edu/abs/0710.3229

I might have to go almost all they way back to "I dunno..." almost, but with a lean towards Landsea (I know the guy and I know his work.)
392. MTWX
Levi, How much snow did you guys end up getting from that Blizzard??
Quoting atmoaggie:
Another somewhat aged report from Landsea: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/seasonal/index.html

"An east QBO phase (typically lasting 12 to 15 months) forces strong easterly winds in the lower stratosphere between 10 and 15 N and with it large amounts of vertical wind shear from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere. The west QBO phase (typically lasting 13 to 16 months) allows for weak easterly winds in the tropical North Atlantic stratosphere and for low amounts of vertical wind shear. Large amounts of this vertical wind shear is hypothesized to inhibit genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones. Thus years of west QBO phases typically have 50% more named storms, 60% more hurricanes, and 200% more intense hurricanes than occur in east QBO phases within the Atlantic basin. "

HOLY CRAP! Can the effect really be that strong?


Yup it was....that was written in 1994. After the AMO went warm in 1995 the correlation died. I posted this a while back:


Dr. Gray stopped using the QBO in his December Forecast scheme due to the drop-off in correlation to Atlantic hurricane activity over recent years (since 1995). He also dropped West African rainfall due to a similar lack of correlation. He has found no explanation for either.

From his December 2009 Forecast:

"This was due to the discontinuation of the strong relationships we had earlier found between West African rainfall and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with Atlantic basin major hurricane activity 6-11 months in the future. We did not expect these African rainfall and QBO predictive relationships that had worked so well during the 41-year period from 1950-1990 to stop working. We do not yet have a good explanation. We have discontinued this earlier 1 December forecast scheme and have developed two new 1 December forecast schemes (Schemes B and C) since that time."
Okay, last bit of reading material for Levi (poor guy is going to be busy). I stumbled across the June '97 season forecast...with the building super El Nino (not forecasted well, in intensity).

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/experimental/bulletin/Jun97/q17.html
Quoting MTWX:
Levi, How much snow did you guys end up getting from that Blizzard??


48 inches averaging out the drifts, which were up to 7 feet high :)
Quoting Levi32:


Yup it was....that was written in 1994. After the AMO went warm in 1995 the correlation died. I posted this a while back:


Dr. Gray stopped using the QBO in his December Forecast scheme due to the drop-off in correlation to Atlantic hurricane activity over recent years (since 1995). He also dropped West African rainfall due to a similar lack of correlation. He has found no explanation for either.

From his December 2009 Forecast:

"This was due to the discontinuation of the strong relationships we had earlier found between West African rainfall and the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) with Atlantic basin major hurricane activity 6-11 months in the future. We did not expect these African rainfall and QBO predictive relationships that had worked so well during the 41-year period from 1950-1990 to stop working. We do not yet have a good explanation. We have discontinued this earlier 1 December forecast scheme and have developed two new 1 December forecast schemes (Schemes B and C) since that time."

That's right. They did stop using it...wonder if anyone has figured the dynamics that made it such a strong factor before the AMO switch and notsomuch after. Digging deep just to find this stuff.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Believe it or not but, not many on here have a MET degree but, many no more than most peeps with Met degrees. One does not have to have a degree in Meteorology to be considered a Meterologist. I believe StormW pointed that out to us last year.


456
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hehe.

"A simple study of the relationship between the QBO and the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, both in the Basin and hitting the U.S. coastline, demonstrates that the QBO is not a particularly useful index to help predict hurricane numbers on five-year time scales. It is shown that there is very little difference between the number of hurricanes following easterly winds in the equatorial stratosphere and the number that follow westerly winds. Given this it is reasonable one would make better predictions just using the mean number of hurricanes in lieu of using the QBO and this is also simply demonstrated here. "

http://arxiv4.library.cornell.edu/abs/0710.3229

I might have to go almost all they way back to "I dunno..." almost, but with a lean towards Landsea (I know the guy and I know his work.)


Yeah that one was written in 2007, after the correlation became much worse than before the AMO went warm. This is why I suspect that the negative effects of the QBO may be fairly easily overpowered by something like anomalously warm SSTs. Warmer SSTs means more heat and flatter lapse rates, as well as more evaporated moisture to combat the dry stratospheric air intrusions.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Another somewhat aged report from Landsea: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/seasonal/index.html

"An east QBO phase (typically lasting 12 to 15 months) forces strong easterly winds in the lower stratosphere between 10 and 15 N and with it large amounts of vertical wind shear from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere. The west QBO phase (typically lasting 13 to 16 months) allows for weak easterly winds in the tropical North Atlantic stratosphere and for low amounts of vertical wind shear. Large amounts of this vertical wind shear is hypothesized to inhibit genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones. Thus years of west QBO phases typically have 50% more named storms, 60% more hurricanes, and 200% more intense hurricanes than occur in east QBO phases within the Atlantic basin. "

HOLY CRAP! Can the effect really be that strong?


I'm still far from being completely sold on the QBO westerly phase supporting above-average tropical cyclone activity. Grey dropped the QBO due the lack of correlation in recent years. One would wonder if its affect is so significant then why didn't it affect the 2005 adversely. 2005 had high SSTs going for it, but the QBO functions as wind in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The westerly phase of the QBO gives us favorable upper level easterlies resulting in low wind shear. If everything line up one would have expected 2005 to have far less amounts of storm but the storms that did form to be strong.
Quoting Motttt:


456


Great example!!! Great example!
401. MTWX
Quoting Levi32:


48 inches averaging out the drifts, which were up to 7 feet high :)

I miss snow!! ;)
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm still far from being completely sold on the QBO westerly phase supporting above-average tropical cyclone activity. Grey dropped the QBO due the lack of correlation in recent years. One would wonder if its affect is so significant then why didn't it affect the 2005 adversely. 2005 had high SSTs going for it, but the QBO functions as wind in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The westerly phase of the QBO gives us favorable upper level easterlies resulting in low wind shear. If everything line up one would have expected 2005 to have far less amounts of storm but the storms that did form to be strong.


Like the idiot i am but, is the QBO phase and its direction have upon any Correlation of ENSO phases?
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm still far from being completely sold on the QBO westerly phase supporting above-average tropical cyclone activity. Grey dropped the QBO due the lack of correlation in recent years. One would wonder if its affect is so significant then why didn't it affect the 2005 adversely. 2005 had high SSTs going for it, but the QBO functions as wind in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The westerly phase of the QBO gives us favorable upper level easterlies resulting in low wind shear. If everything line up one would have expected 2005 to have far less amounts of storm but the storms that did form to be strong.


These inconsistencies are exactly why I don't really put stock into the QBO in my hurricane outlooks. I will be studying it though and paying attention to it more when the AMO goes cold, which if history holds true again is when it should show a greater correlation with hurricane activity.
Quoting Drakoen:


I'm still far from being completely sold on the QBO westerly phase supporting above-average tropical cyclone activity. Grey dropped the QBO due the lack of correlation in recent years. One would wonder if its affect is so significant then why didn't it affect the 2005 adversely. 2005 had high SSTs going for it, but the QBO functions as wind in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. The westerly phase of the QBO gives us favorable upper level easterlies resulting in low wind shear. If everything line up one would have expected 2005 to have far less amounts of storm but the storms that did form to be strong.

Good questions. I think I'll stay with my "I dunno" with a lean towards it has *some* (maybe marginal) effect.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Like the idiot i am but, is the QBO phase and its direction have upon any Correlation of ENSO phases?


Not really...the QBO alternates fairly predictably every 13-16 months. The ENSO is obviously a more erratic pattern of up and down.



I hope he comes back this year
Quoting atmoaggie:
Okay, last bit of reading material for Levi (poor guy is going to be busy).


You do remember where he lives, don't you? What other options can there be? ;)
Also the QBO was said to be useful during 1950-1990. Between 1950 and 1960 was a positive AMO index (warm phase) while past 1960 there negative AMO. I think there is something other than just phase of the AMO that made the QBO useful during the time period between 1950-1990.
Hey there TampaSpin,
I have a question and yes it is off Topic...

Do you think I should go and chase "Tornado's or Drive to Key West in "May"????

Really do need input on this because of the up coming Hurricane Season I just don't think it will be a good idea in September....

Taco :0)
Quoting TampaSpin:


Like the idiot i am but, is the QBO phase and its direction have upon any Correlation of ENSO phases?


Levi answered you question quite well.
Quoting Drakoen:
Also the QBO was said to be useful during 1950-1990. Between 1950 and 1960 was a positive AMO index (warm phase) while past 1960 there negative AMO. I think there is something other than just phase of the AMO that made the QBO useful during the time period between 1950-1990.


Yeah that's true. More questions....it needs to be studied more, but for now I'm with Atmo in considering it only a marginal effect at best.
Quoting taco2me61:
Hey there TampaSpin,
I have a question and yes it is off Topic...

Do you think I sould go and chase "Tornado's or Drive to Key West in "May"????

Really do need input on this because of the up coming Hurricane Season I just don't think it will be a good idea in September....

Taco :0)


Key West in May is better than Key West in September ....this September might not be good for Key West?
Quoting Drakoen:
Also the QBO was said to be useful during 1950-1990. Between 1950 and 1960 was a positive AMO index (warm phase) while past 1960 there negative AMO. I think there is something other than just phase of the AMO that made the QBO useful during the time period between 1950-1990.

Hmmm? (Just remembering when the PDO went negative last, 1950....not saying I know the answer)

Quoting Levi32:


Not really...the QBO alternates fairly predictably every 13-16 months. The ENSO is obviously a more erratic pattern of up and down.





Thank you.......i knew there was a big difference in the time frame but was just courious about the effect ENSO might have if any.
Levi,
What are my odds of having severe weather in houston tomorrow?
Quoting atmoaggie:

Hmmm? (Just remembering when the PDO went negative last....not saying I know the answer)



He said AMO not PDO....PDO was negative from mid-1940s to 1976, then was warm until 1998. AMO was positive from the mid-1920s to early 1960s, then was negative until 1995.
Quoting Skepticall:
Levi,
What are my odds of having severe weather in houston tomorrow?

Oh, I've been meaning to ask him something myself.

Levi, is it going to rain on my camping trip around April 26th?

(Not a jab at Skepticall)
Quoting atmoaggie:

Hmmm? (Just remembering when the PDO went negative last 1950....not saying I know the answer)



I was commenting and the lack of correlation after the AMO switched.
The PDO certainly is interesting and matches with our switch. Perhaps someone should do a study on the PDO and the QBO.
Quoting Levi32:


He said AMO not PDO....PDO was negative from mid-1940s to 1976, then was warm until 1998. AMO was positive from the mid-1920s to early 1960s, then was negative until 1995.

I know...just coincidental...maybe.
Quoting Skepticall:
Levi,
What are my odds of having severe weather in houston tomorrow?


Random? Lol......uhm to be honest I wasn't thinking about it but all it took was one glance at the GFS to say absolutely not. No onshore flow from gulf....cool temps....all northeasterly surface flow with a southeast-diving shortwave. Not much of a chance for thunderstorms, much less severe.
nvm post 418... lol
Quoting Drakoen:


I was commenting and the lack of correlation after the AMO switched.
The PDO certainly is interesting and matches with our switch. Perhaps someone should do a study on the PDO and the QBO.


I'm not really following you guys....the period 1950-1995 during which the QBO had a strong correlation saw both a cold and warm phase of the PDO.

EDIT:

Quoting Drakoen:
nvm post 418... lol


Ok lol.
423. MTWX
Quoting Skepticall:
Levi,
What are my odds of having severe weather in houston tomorrow?

SPC is not showing anything for your area. I'm guessing a bit of rain and a few rumbles of thunder...
Quoting Drakoen:


I was commenting and the lack of correlation after the AMO switched.
The PDO certainly is interesting and matches with our switch. Perhaps someone should do a study on the PDO and the QBO.


I perfer PDQ ......it makes great Chocolate milk shakes too!
Quoting Drakoen:
nvm post 418... lol
Quoting atmoaggie:

Oh, I've been meaning to ask him something myself.

Levi, is it going to rain on my camping trip around April 26th?

(Not a jab at Skepticall)


LOL
Yea Levi, I took a look at this which makes it more obvious:

Quoting atmoaggie:

Oh, I've been meaning to ask him something myself.

Levi, is it going to rain on my camping trip around April 26th?

(Not a jab at Skepticall)


LOL!
428. MTWX
Quoting MTWX:

SPC is not showing anything for your area. I'm guessing a bit of rain and a few rumbles of thunder...

Forecast for your system from SPC:

WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SCNTRL/SERN TX WILL
LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN EXIT REGION OF UPPER
SPEED MAX. ALTHOUGH LIGHTNING CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT SPATIAL COVERAGE WILL WARRANT A
GENERAL THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK ACROSS THIS REGION.
well here is something interesting

The Sea level pressure 4 day chart shows Ului making landfall in Eastern Australia

Quoting Drakoen:
Yea Levi, I took a look at this which makes it more obvious:


Well, tough to believe that a temperature swing in the largest body of specific heat on the planet couldn't have *some* effect on the characteristics of the QBO. What is the effect by the time it reaches the Atlantic? No one knows...we really haven't been measuring it well for long.

I think we are going to be learning a lot about PDO teleconnections in the next 20 years...
Quoting atmoaggie:

Oh, I've been meaning to ask him something myself.

Levi, is it going to rain on my camping trip around April 26th?

(Not a jab at Skepticall)


He just seems to know what's going on. Ask him bout snow next christmas
Quoting atmoaggie:

Well, tough to believe that a temperature swing in the largest body of specific heat on the planet couldn't have *some* effect on the characteristics of the QBO. What is the effect by the time it reaches the Atlantic? No one knows...we really haven't been measuring it well for long.

I think we are going to be learning a lot about PDO teleconnections in the next 20 years...


And a whole lot of other things. It will be the first cold phase of the PDO which we will get to fully observe (no satellite data back before 1976 when the last cold PDO ended).
Quoting Skepticall:

He just seems to know what's going on. Ask him bout snow next christmas

That he does.

But, I don't need him for the snow forecast, I have a 5-year-old. Said it would snow back in Dec 2008. We said, "Son, it doesn't snow often in SE LA." 3 weeks later, 6 inches on the ground and stuck around for 48 hours.

Now he is certain that he knows EVERYTHING and we don't usually know what we are talking about.
(Like Levi? j/k, dude!)
With the Bermuda High weak I doubt the NAO's getting more positive. The Atlantic water's just going to keep warming and warming until June as the scorching hot water from the S. Atlantic basin migrates northward in the spring.

The Gulf's SSTs will be above average by June (El Nino will be gone by May).
From Atmo's link to 1997 CPC Atlantic hurricane forecast:

(2) El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Warm east-central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), or El Nino, reduces storm activity, while anom-alously cool SST enhances it. Going into summer we currently have at least a moderate El Nino in place. The outlook for this event, however, is for it not to become a strong El Nino, because the QBO is becoming westerly (which tends to inhibit El Nino) and the Singapore 100 mb temperature anomalies have not been strongly positive. Therefore, while the ENSO situation will clearly have an inhibiting effect on hurricane activity, its influence is not expected to dominate with respect to conflicting influences for 1997.

Hmm...first I've heard about influences on the ENSO itself? Not to mention that the '97 El Nino DID become strong, very strong.
Quoting atmoaggie:

That he does.

But, I don't need him for the snow forecast, I have a 5-year-old. Said it would snow back in Dec 2008. We said, "Son, it doesn't snow often in SE LA." 3 weeks later, 6 inches on the ground and stuck around for 48 hours.

Now he is certain that he knows EVERYTHING and we don't usually know what we are talking about.
(Like Levi? j/k, dude!)


LOL....you should ask your son about this hurricane season, unless you've already told him all about how active it's gonna be :)
The QBO is therefore diminutive.
Quoting Levi32:
From Atmo's link to 1997 CPC Atlantic hurricane forecast:

(2) El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Warm east-central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), or El Nino, reduces storm activity, while anom-alously cool SST enhances it. Going into summer we currently have at least a moderate El Nino in place. The outlook for this event, however, is for it not to become a strong El Nino, because the QBO is becoming westerly (which tends to inhibit El Nino) and the Singapore 100 mb temperature anomalies have not been strongly positive. Therefore, while the ENSO situation will clearly have an inhibiting effect on hurricane activity, its influence is not expected to dominate with respect to conflicting influences for 1997.

Hmm...first I've heard about influences on the ENSO itself? Not to mention that the '97 El Nino DID become strong, very strong.


So, as i was asking. Seems there might be a correlation and influence. I kinda thought there might be causing stronger ENSO events.
439. MTWX
Quoting Levi32:


LOL....you should ask your son about this hurricane season, unless you've already told him all about how active it's gonna be :)

Now I'm curious too!!LOL
Quoting Levi32:
From Atmo's link to 1997 CPC Atlantic hurricane forecast:

(2) El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Warm east-central equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), or El Nino, reduces storm activity, while anom-alously cool SST enhances it. Going into summer we currently have at least a moderate El Nino in place. The outlook for this event, however, is for it not to become a strong El Nino, because the QBO is becoming westerly (which tends to inhibit El Nino) and the Singapore 100 mb temperature anomalies have not been strongly positive. Therefore, while the ENSO situation will clearly have an inhibiting effect on hurricane activity, its influence is not expected to dominate with respect to conflicting influences for 1997.

Hmm...first I've heard about influences on the ENSO itself? Not to mention that the '97 El Nino DID become strong, very strong.

That bit jumped out at you, too, I see. I am going to say that, though I am not familiar with a study on the link between the two, it makes sense that a westerly QBO phase would help disrupt the Walker circulation.

Typical:


El Nino:
lol sorry for interrupting the great conversation by posting the 4 day forecast for Ului
Just a quick hello to everybody -- my son's visiting from Maui -- he had to borrow a jacket from my husband. We're very soggy around metro DC, but the waters have started receding.

State of disaster in cyclone-hit Fiji
1 hr 25 mins ago

SUVA (AFP) – The Fiji government declared a state of disaster in the cyclone-ravaged nation Tuesday as the scale of damage began to emerge after 17,000 people fled to evacuation centres.

Cyclone Tomas cut a swathe of destruction through the north and east as winds averaging 165 kilometres (102 miles) an hour lashed the Pacific island group for a second day.

The main island of Viti Levu was spared the worst of the devastation but there were reports of extensive damage from the second largest island, Vanua Levu, and eastern outlying islands, officials said.
Quoting MTWX:

Now I'm curious too!!LOL

Lemme go wake him up...
...
...
...
he said Sponge Bob had a grease accident at Crusty Crab's and spread a thin sheen of oil over the whole MDR. No evaporation, thus, no CV storms this year. He said that's partly why it is above average temps right now, too, that and the weak trade winds.
(his words...lol)

Hi AIM!
G'Nite, all.
444. MTWX
Looks like Ului is winding up for the pitch!!Link
445. MTWX
Quoting atmoaggie:

Lemme go wake him up...
...
...
...
he said Sponge Bob had a grease accident at Crusty Crab's and spread a thin sheen of oil over the whole MDR. No evaporation, thus, no CV storms this year. He said that partly why it is above average temps right now, too, that and the weak trade winds.
(his words...lol)

Hi AIM!
G'Nite, all.

NOW THATS AWESOME!!!!
Quoting atmoaggie:

That bit jumped out at you, too, I see. I am going to say that, though I am not familiar with a study on the link between the two, it makes sense that a westerly QBO phase would help disrupt the Walker circulation.

Typical:


El Nino:


Yeah I suppose so, but I have a hard time believing the effect is that strong. Also, the '02, '04, and '06 ninos all took place during a westerly QBO.
G'nite Atmo -- sounds like your boy is at least smart enough to know how to dress for the weather! (Or maybe my son forgot that March doesn't REALLY mean it's spring quite yet!)

'nite all!
2005 had an easterly QBO. End of discussion.
Quoting Levi32:


Yeah I suppose so, but I have a hard time believing the effect is that strong. Also, the '02, '04, and '06 ninos all took place during a westerly QBO.

Right. The opposite of what I was thinking.

They said "westerly QBO, inhibit El Nino". Seems that would be other way around in my head...

Man I am saying "I dunno" a lot tonight. Bedtime. Nighty-Nite.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Lemme go wake him up...
...
...
...
he said Sponge Bob had a grease accident at Crusty Crab's and spread a thin sheen of oil over the whole MDR. No evaporation, thus, no CV storms this year. He said that's partly why it is above average temps right now, too, that and the weak trade winds.
(his words...lol)

Hi AIM!
G'Nite, all.


LOL! That's awesome.

'Night Atmo. Good discussions tonight.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Right. The opposite of what I was thinking.

They said "westerly QBO, inhibit El Nino". Seems that would be other way around in my head...

Man I am saying "I dunno" a lot tonight. Bedtime. Nighty-Nite.


That's funny.....I thought maybe westerly winds would inhibit the upper tropospheric easterlies during El Nino or something. Who knows lol. Oh well. Night :)
452. MTWX
goodnight atmo.
Nite Atmo
Thanks Levi,
Yea it was off topic but I went to see my forecast for tomorrow said 60% chance of thunderstorms and don't know whether to believe it or not.
Quoting Skepticall:
Thanks Levi,
Yea it was off topic but I went to see my forecast for tomorrow said 60% chance of thunderstorms and don't know whether to believe it or not.


Oh it might happen, like the SPC said maybe some scattered light convection, but definitely nothing severe.
Hi guys whats up
Ok I'm out for the night too. See y'all tomorrow.
459. xcool
:0
Good Morning all,StormW how are you today. You get alot of rain from that system last week. I got 5.77 up here in z-hills.
Can anyone on here give a short explanation, in layman terms, how anybody can predict how many storms we are going to have for hurricane season? Thank you
Felt weird the night before last, what with all the earthquake talk then realizing that I hadn't been in one for.....well, long enough that I don't remember the when, not even vaguely
This morning, 4.4 earthquake.

Feeling much better now.
Quoting StormW:


Doing good! WOW! I only got 2.37"

Great to here your doing ok. My sister lives in south z-hills and she had 8.31in. something right.
Good morning from Lantana, Florida! (7:45am)

Quoting aspectre:
Felt weird the night before last, what with all the earthquake talk then realizing that I hadn't been in one for.....well, long enough that I don't remember the when, not even vaguely
This morning, 4.4 earthquake.

Feeling much better now.
foreshock
Good morning StormW, KOTG, and all others. Hope everyone is well this beautiful am.
n.e.'s are getting stuck this yr
Quoting StormW:


Doin' well...just getting prepared for class today.
We all know you'll do a great job!!
good morning all great day in the 60's today near 70 tomorrow warming up too fast normals for this time of year should be low to mid 40's for highs
Quoting StormW:


Not learnin'...assisting professor.

And we all know you will still do a great job.

Good morning.
Sun's out and no sign of rain here in ECFL this a.m., and then I looked at this map. Huh?!
Good morning...
Quoting Chicklit:

Good morning.
Sun's out and no sign of rain here in ECFL this a.m., and then I looked at this map. Huh?!


Hehe... is a bit too dry Chick... for rain.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Warning
Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului, CAT 4
11:00 PM EST March 16 2010
=====================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 4 (938 hPa) located at 13.5S 157.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The severe cyclone is reported as stationary.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/W0.5/24hrs

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
45 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
==================
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
160 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 157.7E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
24 HRS: 14.8S 158.1E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
48 HRS: 16.7S 158.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4)
72 HRS: 19.3S 156.7E - 100 knots (CAT 4)

Additional Information
==========================
Eye pattern with LG surround and DG centre and banding feature of 0.5, giving DT of 5.5. MET and PT both suggest 5.0. Final T based on DT as it appears clear.

Expect upper steering winds associated with the system to become more northerly during the next 24 hours as an upper trough erodes the mid level ridge to the south. From Thursday onwards a new mid-level ridge will develop south of the system and steering winds should become more NE'ly and turn the Tropical Cyclone on a more westerly course.
Quoting Chicklit:

Good morning.
Sun's out and no sign of rain here in ECFL this a.m., and then I looked at this map. Huh?!

A lot of those colder cloud tops are likely cirrus and such. The lower layers are dry as a bone.
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published online before print March 15, 2010; doi: 10.1073/pnas.0910579107
Iron enrichment stimulates toxic diatom production in high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll areas

Charles G. Trick* (Departments of Biology, and Microbiology and Immunology, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, ON N6A5B7, Canada), Brian D. Bill (Romberg Tiburon Center for Environmental Studies, San Francisco State University, Tiburon, CA 94920, and Marine Biotoxin Program, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA 98112, U.S.A.), William P. Cochlan (Romberg Tiburon Center for Environmental Studies, San Francisco State University, Tiburon, CA 94920, U.S.A.), Mark L. Wells (School of Marine Science, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, U.S.A.), Vera L. Trainer (Marine Biotoxin Program, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA 98112, U.S.A.) and Lisa D. Pickell (School of Marine Science, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, U.S.A.)

Edited by Penny W. Chisholm, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, and approved February 1, 2010 (received for review September 23, 2009)

1.

Abstract
Oceanic high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll environments have been highlighted for potential large-scale iron fertilizations to help mitigate global climate change. Controversy surrounds these initiatives, both in the degree of carbon removal and magnitude of ecosystem impacts. Previous open ocean enrichment experiments have shown that iron additions stimulate growth of the toxigenic diatom genus Pseudonitzschia. Most Pseudonitzschia species in coastal waters produce the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA), with their blooms causing detrimental marine ecosystem impacts, but oceanic Pseudonitzschia species are considered nontoxic. Here we demonstrate that the sparse oceanic Pseudonitzschia community at the high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll Ocean Station PAPA (50° N, 145° W) produces approximately 200 pg DA L−1 in response to iron addition, that DA alters phytoplankton community structure to benefit Pseudonitzschia, and that oceanic cell isolates are toxic. Given the negative effects of DA in coastal food webs, these findings raise serious concern over the net benefit and sustainability of large-scale iron fertilizations.

*Ccorrespondence e-mail: trick@uwo.ca.

Link to abstract: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/02/24/0910579107.abstract

Link to complete, open-access paper: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/02/24/0910579107.full.pdf+html
Disaster Supplies or (Hurricane Supplies) by NOAA, FEMA, NWS.

Water - at least 1 gallon daily per person for 3 to 7 days

Food - at least enough for 3 to 7 days
non-perishable packaged or canned food / juices
foods for infants or the elderly
snack foods
non-electric can opener
cooking tools / fuel paper plates / plastic utensils

Blankets / Pillows, etc.

Clothing - seasonal / rain gear/ sturdy shoes

First Aid Kit / Medicines / Prescription Drugs

Special Items - for babies and the elderly

Toiletries / Hygiene items / Moisture wipes

Flashlight / Batteries

Radio - Battery operated and NOAA weather radio

Telephones - Fully charged cell phone with extra battery and a traditional (not cordless) telephone set

Cash (with some small bills) and Credit Cards - Banks and ATMs may not be available for extended periods

Keys

Toys, Books and Games

Important documents - in a waterproof container or watertight resealable plastic bag
insurance, medical records, bank account numbers, Social Security card, etc.

Tools - keep a set with you during the storm

Vehicle fuel tanks filled

Pet care items
proper identification / immunization records / medications
ample supply of food and water
a carrier or cage
muzzle and leash

Disaster Supplies
Quoting Skyepony:
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published online before print March 15, 2010; doi: 10.1073/pnas.0910579107
Iron enrichment stimulates toxic diatom production in high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll areas

Charles G. Trick* (Departments of Biology, and Microbiology and Immunology, Schulich School of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Western Ontario, London, ON N6A5B7, Canada), Brian D. Bill (Romberg Tiburon Center for Environmental Studies, San Francisco State University, Tiburon, CA 94920, and Marine Biotoxin Program, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA 98112, U.S.A.), William P. Cochlan (Romberg Tiburon Center for Environmental Studies, San Francisco State University, Tiburon, CA 94920, U.S.A.), Mark L. Wells (School of Marine Science, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, U.S.A.), Vera L. Trainer (Marine Biotoxin Program, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA 98112, U.S.A.) and Lisa D. Pickell (School of Marine Science, University of Maine, Orono, ME 04469, U.S.A.)

Edited by Penny W. Chisholm, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, and approved February 1, 2010 (received for review September 23, 2009)

1.

Abstract
Oceanic high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll environments have been highlighted for potential large-scale iron fertilizations to help mitigate global climate change. Controversy surrounds these initiatives, both in the degree of carbon removal and magnitude of ecosystem impacts. Previous open ocean enrichment experiments have shown that iron additions stimulate growth of the toxigenic diatom genus Pseudonitzschia. Most Pseudonitzschia species in coastal waters produce the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA), with their blooms causing detrimental marine ecosystem impacts, but oceanic Pseudonitzschia species are considered nontoxic. Here we demonstrate that the sparse oceanic Pseudonitzschia community at the high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll Ocean Station PAPA (50° N, 145° W) produces approximately 200 pg DA L−1 in response to iron addition, that DA alters phytoplankton community structure to benefit Pseudonitzschia, and that oceanic cell isolates are toxic. Given the negative effects of DA in coastal food webs, these findings raise serious concern over the net benefit and sustainability of large-scale iron fertilizations.

*Ccorrespondence e-mail: trick@uwo.ca.

Link to abstract: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/02/24/0910579107.abstract

Link to complete, open-access paper: http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/02/24/0910579107.full.pdf+html

So to remove something from the air, we poison the water. Yeah, thats a good tradeoff. /sarcasm
Death toll in devastating Kazakhstan floods rises to 37

In this Saturday, March 13, 2010, photo the remains of a house, which destroyed by a torrent that was unleased after a dam in a reservoir ruptured Thursday evening, seen in the southern Kazakh village of Kyzyl-Agash. The government said in a statement Tuesday that the casualties included nine men, 17 women and 11 children.


Evening all
Jeffs~ not getting your point.. Oceanic high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll environments is refuring to the quickly growing dead zones in the ocean. This paper points a quick fix as a disaster. Nitrates aren't coming from the air..that is fertilizers from run off. We are changing our climate & environment in more ways than one.
484. Sky...

Quite interesting indeed...
whats up folks? =)

Glad to see the regulars still here =)
Quoting Skyepony:
Jeffs~ not getting your point.. Oceanic high-nitrate, low-chlorophyll environments is refuring to the quickly growing dead zones in the ocean. This paper points a quick fix as a disaster. Nitrates aren't coming from the air..that is fertilizers from run off. We are changing our climate & environment in more ways than one.

What I was pointing out is that the phytoplankton mentioned (diatoms) are also being touted as a reservoir of CO2. But as a byproduct, they also secrete a toxin into the environment. So while we are cleaning the air of excess CO2, and reducing the dead zones caused by high nitrates, we are also adding a toxin to the waters.
Some hurricane preparedness questions you need to ask now:

Do I know my evacuation zone?

If I have to evacuate, where will I go? (public shelters can be a last minute choice... but you should have another plan as your first option)

Do I have a pet? Is it a cat or a dog, or, is it some other more 'exotic' pet (bird, fish, snake, ferret, etc?) Do you have a plan for them?

Is your car ready? Does it run well enough for you to rely on it? Do you have the basics in the car? (Paper map in case the GPS batteries run low, flashlight, can of fix-a-flat, first aid kit, jumper cables, working jack, rain gear, etc.)

Do you rent? Do you know what your evacuation zone is? Is your landlord going to board up the windows and take other protective actions, or are they going to collect an insurance check after the storm? If the later, you have to have a better plan.

Are you on medications? If so, talk with your doctor about hurricane season, and don't let your supply of maintenance drugs run too low.

Do you have elderly family members? What's their plan? How about kids? What's the plan for them?

Are your important papers somewhere you can get to? Are they organized and up-to-date? Now's a good time to write your homeowners and auto insurance info on a small card and tuck it into your pocket in case you need it and don't have access to your home.

Any others?

NEW BLOG EVERYBODY!!!!
Good Day Folks. Pretty quiet out there accross the US weather wise and looks the next significant weathermaker is the system about to head into the Pacific Northwest.......A nice spring week for most; a little on the cool side, but very nice. I'm just waiting on the temps to rise a little more in North Florida before I begin re-seeding the lawn.......... :)
Jeffs~Good point..