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Wet June on the East Coast Raises Hurricane Flood Risk

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:41 PM GMT on July 16, 2013

June 2013 was the 15th warmest June in the contiguous U.S. since record keeping began in 1895, said NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) in their latest State of the Climate report. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Over three times as many record warm highs and lows occurred than record cold highs and lows during June. For the year-to-date period January - June, both temperature and precipitation over the contiguous U.S. have been above normal, ranking in the upper 33% and 23% of years, respectively.

According to NOAA's U.S. Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which tracks the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top-10% and bottom-10% extremes in temperature, precipitation, and drought, June extremes were about 10% below average, and the year-to-date period January - June 2013 has been 20% below average.


Figure 1. Historical temperature ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. Six Southwest U.S. states had a top-ten warmest June on record, and no states recorded a significantly below-average June for temperatures. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).

Wet June on the East Coast raises hurricane flood risk
It was a very June for the contiguous U.S., ranking as the 13th wettest June since 1895. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June. The very wet June has brought some of the highest soil moisture levels ever recorded for July along much of the coast from Florida to Maine, increasing the chances of extreme flooding should this region receive a hit from a tropical storm or hurricane during the coming peak months of hurricane season. The latest 2-week forecast from the GFS model keeps the East Coast under a wetter-than-average weather pattern into early August, and the latest 1-month and 3-month precipitation outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center also give above-average chances of wetter than average conditions. Lake Okeechobee in Florida is 1.4' above average for this time of year, and 5' higher than two years ago. While this still puts the lake 1.2' below what is considered high water, Lake Okeechobee water levels will need to be watched as we head into the peak part of hurricane season.


Figure 2. Historical precipitation ranking for the U.S. for June 2013. New Jersey and Delaware had their wettest June on record, and sixteen other eastern states had a top-ten wettest June on record. Utah had its driest June on record, and Arizona, Colorado, and Wyoming had a top-ten driest June. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).


Figure 3. Soil moisture for July 14, 2013, expressed as percent average of the soil moisture observed between 1916 - 2004. Portions of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire are near their highest soil moisture levels on record for this time of year, increasing the odds of extreme flooding in those states should a tropical storm or hurricane hit this year. Image credit: University of Washington Variable Infiltration Capacity Macro-scale Hydrological Model, which includes soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and runoff.

Drought conditions remained relatively unchanged during June. According to the July 9 Drought Monitor report, about 45% of the contiguous U.S. is still in moderate or greater drought, compared to 44% at the beginning of June. The U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook issued on June 21 calls for little overall change in the U.S. area covered by drought conditions during the remainder of summer. Approximately 1.2 million acres of land burned in the U.S. during June, which is above average. However, the year-to-date total acreage burned is the second lowest in the past ten years.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. ncstorm
12z short term ensembles

1002. ncstorm
Quoting 999. congaline:

Humor is not against the rules. Mean-spirited attacks are.


and calling people "Doubt Mongers" is a touching sentiment?
Is this bogus too?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
848 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2013

.UPDATE...
CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT COUNTER-
CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND AN H5 LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
AREA THIS EVENING. THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT MAINLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND INTERIOR PALM BEACH COUNTY. THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO
PUSH TO THE WEST. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SURGE A
DEEP MOISTURE PLUME INTO SOUTH FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL SUPPORT WILL PROVIDE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE
EAST COASTAL AREAS INTO WEDNESDAY. UPDATED POPS TO ADJUST FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. UPDATE SENT.

Never mind I read the graph wrong.
Quoting Grothar:


Did you get enough sleep?

Never enough. My lower back nerve doesn't like me sleeping.
This 0z run shows a low in the Gulf.


Quoting 992. congaline:

Wunderground's Climate Change Position
Earth's climate is warming. This time, humans are mostly responsible, and the overwhelming majority of climate scientists agree. Climate change is already causing significant impacts to people and ecosystems, and these impacts will grow much more severe in the coming years. We can choose to take economically sensible steps to lessen the damage of climate change, and the cost of inaction is much higher than the cost of action.

Discuss...
Climate change is more than man can change. We must learn our limits live with it!!
Quoting 993. SunriseSteeda:
Why? Is humor against the rules? :)


a wunderblogger, a tornado and a hurricane walk into a bar....
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


a wunderblogger, a tornado and a hurricane walk into a bar....

Boom!!!!! Boom!!!! Tish!!!
1011. drs2008
Quoting 1009. BaltimoreBrian:


a wunderblogger, a tornado and a hurricane walk into a bar....
i hve an idea for a great tv show. Criminal mimes
Quoting 1009. BaltimoreBrian:


a wunderblogger, a tornado and a hurricane walk into a bar....
Humanado? (hu as in hurricane,man as in human and nado as in tornado.)
1013. bappit
Quoting 1002. ncstorm:


and calling people "Doubt Mongers" is a touching sentiment?

In some cases it is the truth.
Quoting 974. PedleyCA:


Don't think so. #2 is usually pointed at that black/yellow/white thing. Is that a buoy. If so, it is still where it was.

I wonder why that cam keeps taking shots that look like dramatizations of the aftermath of untreated glaucoma...

Is that water I see just beyond the black/yellow/white thing? If so, is it just surface water, or is it melting clear through?
1015. no1der
You've shown someone's good example of hiding the forest by rescaling one tree.

Here's the bigger picture:

BTW what's your source? Mine's here: http://www.climatedata.info/Proxy/Proxy/icecores. html
It's conventional to post sources if you expect to be taken seriously.




Quoting 982. galvestonhurricane:


The CO2 level and increasing insolation 105,000 years ago should have caused the Earth to warm up, but it didn't.

Just posted my first blog post - mostly just graphics for now. I would be grateful if you checked it out!
LOOK AT 24 WEST!!! WOW!! nice spin with the tropical wave!!
1018. bappit
1015 shows a classic example of someone spreading doubt through their dishonesty.

Edit: not no1der, the post he is commenting on
1019. drs2008
Quoting 1008. gulfbreeze:
Climate change is more than man can change. We must learn our limits live with it!!
our species probably contributes,however, to attribute all change to human activity creates the illusion that we can now change what is going to happen. I believe it is already too late unless we make draconian changes,beginning immediately,imho.
Quoting 1018. bappit:
1015 shows a classic example of someone spreading doubt through their dishonesty.


Dishonesty? It's a graph with my interpretation. Unlike the IPCC, I don't fabricate graphs.
Quoting 1020. galvestonhurricane:


Dishonesty? It's a graph with my interpretation. Unlike the IPCC, I don't fabricate graphs.


Neither does the IPCC.
Enter Sandman one last time !!
Quoting 999. congaline:

Humor is not against the rules. Mean-spirited attacks are.

I suppose the variability is what is considered mean-spirited? Certainly this is not the place for thin skin. Removing that image would be an exaggerated response. It was in no way offensive, and even made a stuffy academic like myself snicker. It would be just as funny if the image said "Let's start discussing the 10,000th suspicious blob of the season". Wouldn't that be no less "offensive"?
1024. no1der
No, you just copy stuff from http://theinconvenientskeptic.com without admitting so.

Quoting 1020. galvestonhurricane:


Dishonesty? It's a graph with my interpretation. Unlike the IPCC, I don't fabricate graphs.

Quoting 1017. hurricanes2018:
LOOK AT 24 WEST!!! WOW!! nice spin with the tropical wave!!

Calm down lol that wave not gona form most likely.
1027. sar2401
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
You can't even understand how happy I am to see your response! I was under the impression that this blog was infested solely with socialist green "globalist" trendies who want to implement euthanasia "for the Earth." lol

LOL. I'm not a doctrinaire anything and, as some others here are fond of saying, everything I quoted is factual. Population control happens naturally and, to some extent, is controlled by weather. For example, in the great Saharan drought, the birth rate rose about 5%, first to offset the increase in deaths of infants from malnutrition and, second, because more children mean more hands to work, plant, and scrounge for what little food was available. There are also horrible disasters, like the yearly cyclones in Bangladesh, that kill tens of thousands of children annually. Raising the standard of living and improving infrastructure so kids can have clean drinking water, for example, will do more to control population than any government program. If kids don't die in their first year of life due to diarrhea, parents will automatically have less children because they don't need "reserve" children.

India is an excellent example of this phenomena, with an average birth rate of 2.5 per women of fertile age compared to the US birth rate of 2.1. Some parts of southern India, which is generally the most prosperous part of the country, has birth rates falling below replacement (2.0) levels. The major part of the world contributing to high population growth is sub-Saharan Africa, not surprisingly also one of the poorest parts of the world. If we concentrated some of our vast resources we spend on aid to foreign counties on infrastructure improvement and economic development, we would be solving numerous problems simultaneously. Instead, we have enabled poverty stricken countries like the Sudan to be able to buy very expensive fighter aircraft like MIG-29's because our aid is supplying the people with food. We need to reapportion our aid so it goes to improve the lives and futures of the people in countries like the Sudan, but we just don't seem to get it.
I wish more people would post a bio so we would know more about people that post on the blog thanks.
Quoting 1024. no1der:
No, you just copy stuff from http://theinconvenientskeptic.com without admitting so.




I'm so sorry to post information with which you disagree. Let's blast the person who we disagree with and call them dishonest.
Western Caribbean more favorable next week -TWC
Quoting 1028. gulfbreeze:
I wish more people would post a bio so we would know more about people that post on the blog thanks.


...says the guy whose bio says nothing about him
1032. sar2401
Quoting unknowncomic:
This 0z run shows a low in the Gulf.



Unless the "Ghost" 97L comes alive as a real 97L, and does it fast, it's sure hard to see where how we could have a low in the Gulf by Friday.
Quoting 1024. no1der:
No, you just copy stuff fromhttp://theinconvenientskeptic.comwithout admitting so.




no1der the site is so sketchy. They predicted a decisive Romney win a week before the election! It's clear theinconvenientskeptic.com is not based in reality, so let's move on.
Quoting 1030. Stormchaser121:
Western Caribbean more favorable next week -TWC
You are going with the TWC??
Quoting 1007. unknowncomic:
This 0z run shows a low in the Gulf.




It's the NAM.
Quoting 1030. Stormchaser121:
Western Caribbean more favorable next week -TWC
Don't make me laugh..9 hours before the snowless storm on march 6 made it's approch they were forecasting 15 inches of snow and couldn't get that right..Everything is for ratings..
1039. sar2401
Quoting Stormchaser121:
Western Caribbean more favorable next week -TWC


And the week before that....

And the week before that....
:-)
1040. zampaz
Quoting 1002. ncstorm:


and calling people "Doubt Mongers" is a touching sentiment?

Golly, I'm gone for an hour and miss a cartoon and all kinds of stuff.

Pardon me for not explaining the term "Doubt Monger."
"Doubt Mongers" is a term coined for the same Public Relations firms and science institutes hired by the tobacco industry. Tobacco was the birth of the "reasonable doubt" industry. The same scientists who were hired by RJ Reynolds, et al were hired by big oil, and the anti-science psychology tactics they use with the lay public works quite well.

Prof. Naomi Oreskes
TalkingStickTV-Interview with Naomi Oreskes - Merchants of Doubt


Kori report to tropicschat stat!
Quoting 1033. BaltimoreBrian:


no1der the site is so sketchy. They predicted a decisive Romney win a week before the election! It's clear theinconvenientskeptic.com is not based in reality, so let's move on.


That is on John Kehr's blog SEPARATE from the data. Way to look like an idiot.
Quoting 1031. galvestonhurricane:


...says the guy whose bio says nothing about him


You know, I've given passing thought to that as well. In all these years (7-8) of lurking, I don't think I ever noticed where/how to make a profile. I obviously figured out how to get a photo up there at some point, lol.

Is there not a place to create/update a user profile on this site?
1044. Thrawst
.
To counter the heat of this tropics blog and AGW I recommend to follow a superb ARCTIC blog (arctic sea ice to be more precise, tracking the state of our ice & snow): go to http://neven1.typepad.com/
1046. sar2401
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


no1der the site is so sketchy. They predicted a decisive Romney win a week before the election! It's clear theinconvenientskeptic.com is not based in reality, so let's move on.

Brian, I know nothing about the site, but it seems to be a stretch that the prediction of the outcome of the Presidental race would have any bearing on if they are posting dishonest information about climate change. I know an awful lot of stock market sites that have had some pretty embarassing past predictions about the market, but it doesn't mean everything they write about is wrong. If they are posting dishonest stuff, challenge their information, not their politcal predictions.
NASA’s Hubble telescope discovers new Neptune moon




NASA’s Voyager spacecraft failed to spot the tiny moon during its 1989 fly-pass of the giant gaseous planet.
July 16, 2013 – SPACE - The Hubble space telescope has discovered a new moon orbiting Neptune, NASA has confirmed. Designated S/2004 N 1, this is the 14th known moon to circle the giant planet. It also appears to be the smallest moon in the Neptunian system, measuring just 20 km (12 miles) across, completing one revolution around Neptune every 23 hours. U.S. astronomer Mark Showalter spotted the tiny dot while studying segments of rings around Neptune. NASA said the moon was roughly 100 million times dimmer than the faintest star visible to the naked eye. It is so small that the Voyager spacecraft failed to spot it in 1989 when it passed close by Neptune and surveyed the planet’s system of moons and rings. Mr. Showalter’s method of discovery involved tracking the movement of a white fleck appearing over and over again in more than 150 photographs taken of Neptune by Hubble between 2004 and 2009. “The moons and arcs orbit very quickly, so we had to devise a way to follow their motion in order to bring out the details of the system,” Mr. Showalter explained. “It’s the same reason a sports photographer tracks a running athlete – the athlete stays in focus, but the background blurs.” –CNN
Quoting 1039. sar2401:


And the week before that....

And the week before that....
:-)
LOL Sar eventually they will get it right. I might be a fossil by then. :P
Quoting 1037. washingtonian115:
Don't make me laugh..9 hourd before the snowless storm on march 6 made it's approch they were forecasting 15 inches of snow and couldn't get that right..Everything is for ratings..


That's silly!

Don't they typically report that "conditions are conducive" for 15" of snow, or increased viability of development in the tropics?


They are merely educated predictions, after all, generally aimed to the benefit of the public and commercial interests. In the end, Mother Nature p0wns us and our "predictions".
Quoting 1034. gulfbreeze:
You are going with the TWC??

I'm just saying haha I normally dont go with TWC cause they suck now.
1051. zampaz
Quoting 1033. BaltimoreBrian:


no1der the site is so sketchy. They predicted a decisive Romney win a week before the election! It's clear theinconvenientskeptic.com is not based in reality, so let's move on.

He did win, he came in next to first.
1052. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL Sar eventually they will get it right. I might be a fossil by then. :P

I have the feeling you'll live a lot longer than I have left on earth, so there's a better than even chance you will actually see them get it right before you croak. :-)
Quoting 1050. Stormchaser121:

I'm just saying haha I normally dont go with TWC cause they suck now.
Thats ok years ago they where good before the sold out!
1054. Dakster
Quoting 1037. washingtonian115:
Don't make me laugh..9 hours before the snowless storm on march 6 made it's approch they were forecasting 15 inches of snow and couldn't get that right..Everything is for ratings..


Yes - Media spins everything. Even worse with the weather.

BTW, is your avatar a self-portrait?
1055. nigel20
Good evening all!

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 16 Jul 2013

Average for last 30 days 6.8
Average for last 90 days 6.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 14.4
Quoting 1049. SunriseSteeda:


That's silly!

Don't they typically report that "conditions are conducive" for 15" of snow, or increased viability of development in the tropics?


They are merely educated predictions, after all, generally aimed to the benefit of the public and commercial interests. In the end, Mother Nature p0wns us and our "predictions".
I kid you not.Even when I tuned in on that morning they were still hyping that D.C could see it's biggest snow storm since Feb 5-6 2010..They sounded sure of themselves to.
Quoting 1051. zampaz:

He did win, he came in next to first.


Did you see the clip I put on your blog?
Quoting 1037. washingtonian115:
Don't make me laugh..9 hours before the snowless storm on march 6 made it's approch they were forecasting 15 inches of snow and couldn't get that right..Everything is for ratings..

Nor did the National Weather Service. That event busted because of unforeseen onshore flow, not because of wrong meteorology.
Russians to deploy floating nuclear power plant
Jul 10, 2013 by Bob Yirka



July 15, 2013 MOSCOW - The general director of one of Russias largest shipbuilders, Aleksandr Voznesensky, has announced to reporters that a floating nuclear power plant is currently under construction at one of Russias ship yards. He added that it will likely be ready for use by 2016.

Link

I imagine that if they get a Fukushima event, they just sink it into the sea....
Quoting 1054. Dakster:


Yes - Media spins everything. Even worse with the weather.

BTW, is your avatar a self-portrait?
I would have no husband or kids if that was the case..
Quoting 1058. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nor did the National Weather Service. That event busted because of unforeseen onshore flow, not because of wrong meteorology.
I didn't like the hype though..They even sent Jim out downtown..
Quoting 1056. washingtonian115:
I kid you not.Even when I tuned in on that morning they were still hyping that D.C could see it's biggest snow storm since Feb 5-6 2010..They sounded sure of themselves to.
Oh my what have you done with yourself Washi!?
1062. Grothar
Quoting 1043. SunriseSteeda:


You know, I've given passing thought to that as well. In all these years (7-8) of lurking, I don't think I ever noticed where/how to make a profile. I obviously figured out how to get a photo up there at some point, lol.

Is there not a place to create/update a user profile on this site?


Just click on your name and go to "My blog" Scroll down on the right and look for "Edit Profile" You can do it there.
Quoting 1056. washingtonian115:
I kid you not.Even when I tuned in on that morning they were still hyping that D.C could see it's biggest snow storm since Feb 5-6 2010..They sounded sure of themselves to.


I was sure of myself when I was joking with classmates that I didn't even have to study for the COP 5930 - Programming Languages final exam, given my extensive programming experience, and that I was going ace the exam... and that it would perhaps be my highest-scoring final exam ever.

And then I failed it with a 63. At least I knew that COBOL was invented by the DoD.

Predictions, even bolstered by data and historical precedent, are still probabilistic!

That said, media loves to hype everything... that's the nature of commercial media, after all. It doesn't mean they are idiots (your snowless storm). It does mean they are like humans in general - subject to hysteria :)
Quoting 1053. gulfbreeze:
Thats ok years ago they where good before the sold out!

The Local on the 8s are no good...and the tropical update is no good...and storm alert was taken away...they got rid of their theme song...all that other garbage. Not only that but whats with this stuff about minerals...and other non weather stuff on there??
1065. Dakster
Quoting 1060. washingtonian115:
I would have no husband or kids if that was the case..
I didn't like the hype though..They even sent Jim out downtown..


Doesn't mean that you don't dress up as a clown now and then...

The TWC folks acts as forecasters...
Quoting 1015. no1der:
You've shown someone's good example of hiding the forest by rescaling one tree.

Here's the bigger picture:

BTW what's your source? Mine's here: http://www.climatedata.info/Proxy/Proxy/icecores. html
It's conventional to post sources if you expect to be taken seriously.







This is the source of the graphic in post# 982 - The Inconvenient Skeptic
As to why I've posted this avatar the reasoning is in the wunderyakuza blog..I can't post it on here..
1068. zampaz
Quoting 1023. SunriseSteeda:

I suppose the variability is what is considered mean-spirited? Certainly this is not the place for thin skin. Removing that image would be an exaggerated response. It was in no way offensive, and even made a stuffy academic like myself snicker. It would be just as funny if the image said "Let's start discussing the 10,000th suspicious blob of the season". Wouldn't that be no less "offensive"?

Well, the Mods err on the side of caution...but I'm sorry I missed it. Sarcasm can be fun for some of us, but there are those who really are emotionally fragile.
In real life I can be a real "nice" person.
I'm full of self-anger waiting for a target to vent upon.
I want to be a nice person because my natural arrogant attitude of disdain for stupidity does not lend itself well to communication with my fellow man.
It doesn't matter if you doubt the cause of climate change. What will happen will happen.
IF the climate changes as projected the planet is in trouble, and the climate isn't changing as projected. It is changing much faster.
The worst that can happen is that we will be better prepared, at least emotionally, to reach out an help our fellows in time of need.
For some of us, because "it's the right thing to do," and for others "doing the right thing" is the Christian thing to do.
Motivation doesn't matter. Reality doesn't care.
The Arctic is melting.
Quoting 1062. Grothar:


Just click on your name and go to "My blog" Scroll down on the right and look for "Edit Profile" You can do it there.


Thanks! It's weird that for such a mature website, that part of it is not intuitive at all (coming from the experience/perspective of computer scientist/software developer). I would have expected to see it listed as maybe "My Profile" when hovering over one's username at the top of the page.

Ta da! I now have an "About Me". Now it's everyone else's turn!
1070. nigel20
1059. sunlinepr

Russians to deploy floating nuclear power plant
Jul 10, 2013 by Bob Yirka

I imagine that if they get a Fukushima event, they just sink it into the sea....


Hey sunline! This could cause major marine pollution if we had a Fukushima type event.
1071. zampaz
Quoting 1057. BaltimoreBrian:


Did you see the clip I put on your blog?

Which blog...going there now.
Quoting 1070. nigel20:
1059. sunlinepr

Russians to deploy floating nuclear power plant
Jul 10, 2013 by Bob Yirka

I imagine that if they get a Fukushima event, they just sink it into the sea....


Hey sunline! This could cause major marine pollution if we had a Fukushima type event.


Yeah....No lessons learned from that catastrophic event or even Chernobyl...... they keep on going... that means that they can deploy and move around the globe, any device or technology that requires big amounts of energy... What about a floating HAARP array facility?

The Akademik Lomonosov will be capable of generating 70 MW of electricity enough to power a city of 200,000 people. He noted also that such vessels could also be used to power desalination plants, providing 240,000 cubic meters of fresh water daily.

Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2013-07-russians-deploy-nucle ar-power.html#jCp
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISANG
11:00 AM PhST July 17 2013
================================================= =

Tropical Depression "ISANG" has accelerated while traversing the Balintang channel

At 10:00 AM PhST, Tropical Depression Isang [CIMARON] (1000 hPa) located at 19.3N 121.3E or estimated over the Calayan Island has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving north northwest at 11 knots.

Signal Warnings
=================

Signal Warning #1

Luzon region
---------------
1. Ilocos Norte
2. Apayao
3. Cagayan
4. Calayan
5. Babuyan Group of Islands
6. Batanes Group of Islands

Additional Information
========================
Tropical Depression "ISANG" will enhance the Southwest Monsoon which will bring light to moderate rains and thunderstorms over Metro Manila and the rest of Luzon and western Visayas.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under public storm warning signal #1 are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Estimated rainfall amount is from 5-15 mm per hour (moderate to heavy) within the 300 km diameter of the tropical depression.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
1074. zampaz
Quoting 1057. BaltimoreBrian:


Did you see the clip I put on your blog?

Excellent Dr. Quest! Gives a whole new meaning to "Tree Hugger" Eh?
Quoting 1068. zampaz:

Well, the Mods err on the side of caution...but I'm sorry I missed it. Sarcasm can be fun for some of us, but there are those who really are emotionally fragile.



I'd buy the "erring on the side of caution" if I didn't regularly see examples of off-topic and/or insulting stuff on this blog. But after all, this is the nature of all blogs (I have been doing this online stuff myself since the mid 80s). Unnecessary and over-zealous censorship has proven time and again to be a heavy-handed approach that is even more offensive.

For example, one message posted earlier than the now-missing picture was "I agree. Anyone stupid enough to ask for a population reduction is asking for murder. Abortion. And they need to be told, it aint a choice, its a LIFE!".

How would a post like that remain, but a rather giggly tongue-in-cheek poke at climatology debates (poking fun at the fact that there are two disparate camps on the subject) gets censored? Unless the censoror is censoring from an insecure position (and thus exposing it). Ditto if it is blocked by the readers.

I am a fan and some-time participant of the GW debate, but even I recognize the truth and hilarity in the fact that no matter how lone the debates rage, no one ever actually "wins" one.


Quoting 1068. zampaz:
For some of us, because "it's the right thing to do," and for others "doing the right thing" is the Christian thing to do.


Coincidentally that maps directly to Validation (doing the right thing) and Verification (doing the thing right) phases of software engineering, both of which are extremely important :)
You posted something "generally like this last week".
What changed from last week When Admin did not approve you sick Avatar?.
Sometimes you are interesting with your comments"........sometimes you go back to your childhood age.
Be nice! You could add to this blog. Everyone has an opinion . Right or wrong
it's worth reading.
Get rid of that Avatar".........
Live a wonderful life!

1077. Matt74
Quoting 1025. unknowncomic:
Too bad the NAM is hot garbage!
1078. nigel20
NBC News ‏@NBCNews 1m

'Very aggressive' SoCal fire grows to 9,000 acres, destroys homes, forces evacuation of camp for kids with cancer http://nbcnews.to/15kzLp4
1079. zampaz
Quoting 1075. SunriseSteeda:



I'd buy the "erring on the side of caution" if I didn't regularly see examples of off-topic and/or insulting stuff on this blog. But that is the nature of all blogs (I have been doing this online stuff myself since the mid 80s). Unnecessary and over-zealous censorship is a heavy-handed approach that is even more offensive.

For example, one message posted earlier than the now-missing picture was "I agree. Anyone stupid enough to ask for a population reduction is asking for murder. Abortion. And they need to be told, it aint a choice, its a LIFE!".

How would a post like that remain, but a rather giggly tongue-in-cheek poke at climatology debates (poking fun at the fact that there are two disparate camps on the subject) gets censored? Unless the censoror is censoring from an insecure position (and thus exposing it).

I am a fan and some-time participant of the GW debate, but even I recognize the truth and hilarity in the fact that the debates always range and no one ever actually "wins" one.




Coincidentally that maps directly to Validation (doing the right thing) and Verification (doing the thing right) phases of software engineering, both of which are extremely important :)

You become what you do.
Started programming in '77. Became IT Project Manager for a Fortune 150 corp in San Diego...
Because what I did for so long I am told my sci-fi reads like a technical specification.
Regardless my cat doesn't care about my background or motivations as long as I feed her and change the box.
That's the reality.
Sea level is rising. There is no logical reason not to prepare and plan for events that have a probability of occurring. And we do plan for some events as evidenced by mapping asteroids.
And some events, like the relationship between tobacco and disease, we would prefer to ignore "because there is a doubt" in the mind of some scientists.
My next blog will be "Spirituality,Science, Belief and Skepticism."
Watch for it. :)
Good evening.
Quoting 1060. washingtonian115:
I would have no husband or kids if that was the case..
I didn't like the hype though..They even sent Jim out downtown..
I am starting to see a pattern in here whenever they send that man to a place.The opposite happens.
Gotta hunch the Bahamas get a circle tomorrow.
check check
Quoting 1078. nigel20:
NBC News %u200F@NBCNews 1m

'Very aggressive' SoCal fire grows to 9,000 acres, destroys homes, forces evacuation of camp for kids with cancer http://nbcnews.to/15kzLp4


Mountain Fire

Here is more info on the Mountain Fire. This is just over the hill from Palm Springs.
Quoting SunriseSteeda:



I'd buy the "erring on the side of caution" if I didn't regularly see examples of off-topic and/or insulting stuff on this blog. But that is the nature of all blogs (I have been doing this online stuff myself since the mid 80s). Unnecessary and over-zealous censorship is a heavy-handed approach that is even more offensive.

For example, one message posted earlier than the now-missing picture was "I agree. Anyone stupid enough to ask for a population reduction is asking for murder. Abortion. And they need to be told, it aint a choice, its a LIFE!".

How would a post like that remain, but a rather giggly tongue-in-cheek poke at climatology debates (poking fun at the fact that there are two disparate camps on the subject) gets censored? Unless the censoror is censoring from an insecure position (and thus exposing it).

I am a fan and some-time participant of the GW debate, but even I recognize the truth and hilarity in the fact that no matter how lone the debates rage, no one ever actually "wins" one.




Coincidentally that maps directly to Validation (doing the right thing) and Verification (doing the thing right) phases of software engineering, both of which are extremely important :)


See the on every comment. If to many click it, the mods remove it. Simple as that. The mods are forced to act.
Time to Bail - Stay Safe All - Play Nice While I am Away..... lol
Quoting 1085. AussieStorm:


See the on every comment. If to many click it, the mods remove it. Simple as that. The mods are forced to act.


That would imply that a lot of readers clicked ! for that picture? Really? Are there that many sensitive GW debaters here that took offense to it? Holy smokes. That was one of the most amusing posts I've seen so far today!
1088. nigel20
Quoting allancalderini:
Good evening.

Hi allan! How was the weather in Honduras today?

I saw that you guys lost to Trinidad and Tobago in the gold cup, but you still have a chance of qualifying for the world cup while the chance of Jamaica qualifying is next to non-existent. :(
Quoting 1082. ProgressivePulse:
Gotta hunch the Bahamas get a circle tomorrow.



As it begins to rain... again.
1090. nigel20
1084. PedleyCA

Mountain Fire

Here is more info on the Mountain Fire. This is just over the hill from Palm Springs.

1086. PedleyCA

Time to Bail - Stay Safe All - Play Nice While I am Away..... lol


Thanks for the link and have a good night!
Quoting 975. AussieStorm:
I came, I saw & now I can't leave.

Thanks, guys. Thanks.

LOL


Ah! You've been conquered!
1092. ncstorm
00z GFS running

186 hours
yellow circle tomorrow.
1094. ncstorm
204 hours
Quoting 1087. SunriseSteeda:


That would imply that a lot of readers clicked ! for that picture? Really? Are there that many sensitive GW debaters here that took offense to it? Holy smokes. That was one of the most amusing posts I've seen so far today!


Are you all referring to the Office Space/GW image? I laughed out loud when I saw it. Guess I should have saved the image instead of just plussing it.
1096. sar2401
Quoting allancalderini:
Good evening.

Good evening, Allen. How are things in Honduras? High of 94 here with just a few clouds. The first day without a shower or a storm at least in the area for the last couple of wweks.
Quoting 1079. zampaz:

You become what you do.
Started programming in '77. Became IT Project Manager for a Fortune 150 corp in San Diego...
Because what I did for so long I am told my sci-fi reads like a technical specification.
Regardless my cat doesn't care about my background or motivations as long as I feed her and change the box.
That's the reality.
Sea level is rising. There is no logical reason not to prepare and plan for events that have a probability of occurring. And we do plan for some events as evidenced by mapping asteroids.
And some events, like the relationship between tobacco and disease, we would prefer to ignore "because there is a doubt" in the mind of some scientists.
My next blog will be "Spirituality,Science, Belief and Skepticism."
Watch for it. :)


It is indeed important to plan for events that have even some probability of happening... although it would be prudent for that effort/planning to be commensurate with the level of that probability!

I don't think we "ignore" the correlation between tobacco and disease... the common sense knowledge is already there, as are the studies... one day we'll likely untangle ourselves from tobacco being an integral part of our economy (since inception of our country), just as we will untangle ourselves from fossil fuels being an integral part of our economy (since the start of the industrial age).

Our nation is still a bit young to do so towards the former, and our specifies is still a bit dense to do so towards the latter.


(Started coding in 82 myself; got my first college credit at BCC between 8th and 9th grads... BASIC for TRS-80. Coded largely in COBOL professionally from 87-08, but now I regularly use and teach C, C , Java, etc. My prior fingerprints are all over software at Hewlett Packard, Sony, Office Depot, FP&L, Victoria's Secret, Brookstone, etc, but now I have moved into newer technology and am currently working on iOS and Android projects).

Quoting 982. galvestonhurricane:


The CO2 level and increasing insolation 105,000 years ago should have caused the Earth to warm up, but it didn't.


Nice try, but no. That graphic not only shows a cherry picked segment of a much larger graph. Also, there was a slight warming beginning 105,000 years ago however due to orbital and axial variations, it was mild and relatively short lived. Since your graph doesn't show the whole picture it presents a distorted view of the climate at that time period.

Here are some sites that discuss the paleoclimate record.

NOAA Paleoclimate

Wikipedia summary on paleoclimate

ORNL summary on paleoclimate

Skeptical science summary on paleoclimate

And if that is not enough, you can read through the peer reviewed research on the topic referenced on those sites.
1099. ncstorm
276 hours
Quoting 1095. LAbonbon:


Are you all referring to the Office Space/GW image? I laughed out loud when I saw it. Guess I should have saved the image instead of just plussing it.


Yes!
1101. ncstorm
324 hours
1102. Gearsts
Uh what?!
Quoting 1101. ncstorm:
324 hours
the tropical wave or tropical storm will be moving west for a long time with three big highs
1104. ncstorm
384 hours

1105. Gearsts
Weak TD and a TS in the Gulf

Strong TS or Hurricane and almost nothing in the atlantic
Interesting play tonight with the ULL's in the W-ATL and E-GOM. Bahamas could end up with a pseudo ridge between the two. Surface trough "supposed" to be coming out of central Cuba overnight to the SW Bahamas. No way the models would pick up on that kind of situational development. Either way there is a ton of rain in store for SFL.

Quoting 1031. galvestonhurricane:


...says the guy whose bio says nothing about him


I'm too old to be anything but blog-lame. Where does one post a bio?

BTW I am reading through the last four pages since I was on earlier. We blather a lot!
Quoting 1085. AussieStorm:


See the on every comment. If to many click it, the mods remove it. Simple as that. The mods are forced to act.


Actually when enough blog members click the ! button the comment is automaticly removed ..

The Mod's don't have any input !!
Quoting SunriseSteeda:


That would imply that a lot of readers clicked ! for that picture? Really? Are there that many sensitive GW debaters here that took offense to it? Holy smokes. That was one of the most amusing posts I've seen so far today!


You'd be surprised how sensitive GW debaters are on this blog. Maybe if you put in on your own blog and linked it.
Quoting whitewabit:


Actually when enough blog members click the ! button the comment is automaticly removed ..

The Mod's don't have any input !!

Ah ok, I didn't know that. I thought it just brought it to the attention to the mods. Thanks for the info.
Quoting 1008. gulfbreeze:
Climate change is more than man can change. We must learn our limits live with it!!


Not really. If the world actually gave a rat's buttocks that we've been peeing in our own pool for the past 200 years and we should probably do something about it then globally we could actively find ways to curtail the worst of it. However since we can barely stop killing each other over who's invisible sky wizard(s)/politics/economic system/etc. are better, I think we have a better chance of being wiped out by an asteroid driven by Chuck Norris riding a unicorn and covered with sharknados. Especially since there are multi-billion dollar interests actively fighting against doing anything about it.

Eventually things will get so bad that there won't be any choice but to act, but by then it will be too late to avoid the worst of the consequences.
Quoting Gearsts:
Weak TD and a TS in the Gulf

Strong TS or Hurricane and almost nothing in the atlantic


Let me know when it's there at 144hrs. Any further than that I wouldn't worry. Models have been pushing out ghost storms a lot lately.
I give up with the GFS lol.
Quoting 1105. Gearsts:
Weak TD and a TS in the Gulf

Strong TS or Hurricane and almost nothing in the atlantic


Fantasy fantasy...
For many across Australia, this year is the one that winter forgot. We are currently half way through July and with temperatures hitting the high teens and low 20's across the southern states, no one would think they are in the middle of the austral winter.

So far Sydney has seen three days in a row hitting the 20 degree mark and will continue to do so until Friday. If that eventuates, it will be the first time that residents of the Harbour City have seen five consecutive days above 20 degrees in July since 1928 and only the second time in 154 years of records.

But good things don't last forever, especially when it comes to weather. A vigorous low currently sitting over the Bight will bring gusty winds and showers to all capital cities in the south as it sweeps across southeastern Australia from today, bringing cooler conditions to the state on the weekend.



1116. vis0
appended 5hours later:
since i had just gotten and noticed the Tropical LOW on WxU's Tropical  map.
(was still there ~2 hours after it was mentioned to be a test?) i added my 2cents to this comment.

As i then read from pg1 found out others posted it was a test, but why
create a test over an active area, why not over a quite area away from
densely populated areas? - end of append
Bit miffed at 97L


But so be it,
The yellow arrows in the animation are my way of identifying a site of interest WITHIN the yellow arrows and the green marking/Tip on the arrow is the direction I SEE (not official direction) 4 yellow arrows in this animation, 3 over the westward motion of what i thought was a southern fraction of CHANTAL and a lone arrow over the LOW retrograding over Western Texas near the end of this ani.

Photo/Image provided courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, Many thanks to them otherwise we'd be trying to put together a million piece jigsaw puzzle of Earth's surface.

For my reply to 3 questions including one from "SAR2041" on how i figured out a percentage on a 300 hour predictions, the reply though i think "SAR2041"  won't like, is at my blog on this section.
Quoting 1107. JustDucky251:


I'm too old to be anything but blog-lame. Where does one post a bio?

BTW I am reading through the last four pages since I was on earlier. We blather a lot!


I tried to follow earlier instructions on how to update a bio and am completely lost. One of the problems of having gone to HS when slide rules were still in vogue.
Quoting vis0:
Bit miffed at 97L


But so be it,
The yellow arrows in the animation are my way of identifying a site of interest WITHIN the yellow arrows and the green marking/Tip on the arrow is the direction I SEE (not official direction) 4 yellow arrows in this animation, 3 over the westward motion of what i thought was a southern fraction of CHANTAL and a lone arrow over the LOW retrograding over Western Texas near the end of this ani.

Photo/Image provided courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory Monterey, Many thanks to them otherwise we'd be trying to put together a million piece jigsaw puzzle of Earth's surface.

For my reply to 3 questions including one from "SAR2041" on how i figured out a percentage on a 300 hour predictions, the reply though i think "SAR2041" won't like, is at my blog on this section.


LOL 97L is just for a NWS/NHC super-computer test. See comment # 808.
great night for the firepit at my house..its so warm outside tonight its about 80f 1am
Quoting 1020. galvestonhurricane:


Dishonesty? It's a graph with my interpretation. Unlike the IPCC, I don't fabricate graphs.
Quoting 1029. galvestonhurricane:


I'm so sorry to post information with which you disagree. Let's blast the person who we disagree with and call them dishonest.


Correct. You did not fabricate the graph. You only posted it from a site that can only be described as a veritable cornucopia of misinformation and pseudo science.

You can't expect to come on to a scientific blog and post an image/link like that and not expect to be called out on it. Dr. M and various other contributors on here will back up their posts with peer reviewed scientific sources or summary sites that provide links to such references. And if they don't right off the bat they usually will if you ask them to.

If you want to be taken seriously, then post references to the peer-reviewed research backing up your claims.
1121. 7544
Quoting 1106. ProgressivePulse:
Interesting play tonight with the ULL's in the W-ATL and E-GOM. Bahamas could end up with a pseudo ridge between the two. Surface trough "supposed" to be coming out of central Cuba overnight to the SW Bahamas. No way the models would pick up on that kind of situational development. Either way there is a ton of rain in store for SFL.



hmm interesting find good job and you maybe right .
08W heading towards the Taiwan Strait. Should have ample time to become a tropical storm.

Tropical Storm Cimaron heading towards the Taiwan Strait. Should have ample time to strengthen gradually.

Quoting 1088. nigel20:

Hi allan! How was the weather in Honduras today?

I saw that you guys lost to Trinidad and Tobago in the gold cup, but you still have a chance of qualifying for the world cup while the chance of Jamaica qualifying is next to non-existent. :(
Sorry Nigel I was in the chat.My country being a soccer fan country were pretty sad and outrage:D lol XD.The weather continues to be warm but there was breeze thank God.
Quoting 1096. sar2401:

Good evening, Allen. How are things in Honduras? High of 94 here with just a few clouds. The first day without a shower or a storm at least in the area for the last couple of wweks.
Warm but with breeze.
1124. zampaz
Quoting 1097. SunriseSteeda:


It is indeed important to plan for events that have even some probability of happening... although it would be prudent for that effort/planning to be commensurate with the level of that probability!

I don't think we "ignore" the correlation between tobacco and disease... the common sense knowledge is already there, as are the studies... one day we'll likely untangle ourselves from tobacco being an integral part of our economy (since inception of our country), just as we will untangle ourselves from fossil fuels being an integral part of our economy (since the start of the industrial age).

Our nation is still a bit young to do so with the former, and our specifies is still a bit dense to do so with the latter.


(Started coding in 82 myself; got my first college credit at BCC in 8th grade... BASIC for TRS-80. Coded largely in COBOL professionally from 87-08, but now I regularly use and teach C, C++, Java, etc. Currently on iOS and Android projects).


Looking forward to getting to know you better :)
I have great hope for mankind in regard to the future...





Quoting 1117. JustDucky251:


I tried to follow earlier instructions on how to update a bio and am completely lost. One of the problems of having gone to HS when slide rules were still in vogue.


I mocked up some visual instructions to quickly create/edit your "About"/profile entry.

Having never been successful at embedding an image into my posts, I will also provide

a link to the image

If the image below is broken, could someone help with proper instruction on how to show images?

Quoting 1122. Civicane49:
08W heading towards the Taiwan Strait. Should have ample time to become a tropical storm.

Its already one I believe its cinamon or something like that.
Civicane49:
08W heading towards the Taiwan Strait. Should have ample time to become a tropical storm.



already credited as a tropical storm from an official RSMC

Quoting 1126. allancalderini:
Its already one I believe its cinamon or something like that.


Actually, its Cimaron.

Quoting 1127. HadesGodWyvern:


already credited as a tropical storm from an official RSMC



Thanks. I just came back.
1129. zampaz
Quoting 1117. JustDucky251:


I tried to follow earlier instructions on how to update a bio and am completely lost. One of the problems of having gone to HS when slide rules were still in vogue.

I still have a Post bamboo slip stick.
(Top Right Page)
Click -> YourUserID
Menu -> My Blog
SetEyeFocus(Right table in bottom frame);
Blog Control Panel:

Add New Blog Entry
Add WunderPhotos
Edit Blog Profile
Edit Recommended Links
Edit Personal Weather Stations
Edit Banned List
Edit Ignored List
Set Timezone
Quoting 1126. allancalderini:
Its already one I believe its cinamon or something like that.


Can you see why kids love Cinnamon Toast Crunch?
1131. zampaz
Quoting 1125. SunriseSteeda:


I mocked up some visual instructions to quickly create/edit your "About"/profile entry.

Having never been successful at embedding an image into my posts, I will also provide

a link to the image

If the image below is broken, could someone help with proper instructions?


Like yours better :)
1132. scott39
The Eastern GOM will be the area to watch in the next 24 to 48 hours.
Quoting 1125. SunriseSteeda:


I mocked up some visual instructions to quickly create/edit your "About"/profile entry.

Having never been successful at embedding an image into my posts, I will also provide

a link to the image

If the image below is broken, could someone help with proper instructions?



Thanks to you and Zampaz. I have entered something. Maybe someone can see it!!

PS zampaz - I still have a K&E log-log decitrig
Weee!!! Fujiwhara for the CMC:



I just can't seem to stay away from this place migraines and all. Have a goodnight everyone.
Cimaron moving away from Luzon.

Tis the season for preparedness.

Link
Quoting 1131. zampaz:

Like yours better :)


Hahaha hilarious, because I liked yours better!

I suck at mockups. You ought to see some of my publications... I am far better at writing. My illustrations look grade school. http://pire.fiu.edu/posters/2010/Mulcahy-James-CI -PIRE-2010-Poster.pdf
Quoting 1133. JustDucky251:


Thanks to you and Zampaz. I have entered something. Maybe someone can see it!!

PS zampaz - I still have a K&E log-log decitrig


And successful you were! (BTW, Physics was my first love... but CompSci turned out to be my calling :)
1139. nigel20
Quoting allancalderini:
Sorry Nigel I was in the chat.My country being a soccer fan country were pretty sad and outrage:D lol XD.The weather continues to be warm but there was breeze thank God.Warm but with breeze.

Oh...OK. I'm out for the night...see you guys later.
Quoting 1139. nigel20:

Oh...OK. I'm out for the night...see you guys later.


I too am out for the night.

Eventful day - got short term banned for being off topic when I wasn't and updated profile.
1141. zampaz
Quoting 1133. JustDucky251:


Thanks to you and Zampaz. I have entered something. Maybe someone can see it!!

PS zampaz - I still have a K&E log-log decitrig

"Why you lucky B-----d!" err, emm person!
I had one class in JHS that taught the use, then green and red led calculators. Ah, those were the good old days, interpolating trig, log and root tables.
Can you believe how far we've come?
Moore's law holds true.
Today's solutions create tomorrows issues.
Climate change is a manifestation of an issue we face.
The issue is varying ideologies. From space we are one species on a relatively small planet with limited sustainable life support abilities and reality doesn't care about ideology.
The Arctic is melting. How do we prepare for climate change?
Quoting 1141. zampaz:

"The Arctic is melting. How do we prepare for climate change?

We don't prepare for climate change. We adapt to it!

Fortunately the changes are not so sudden that it overwhelms us. Unfortunately it also disguises its effects on our (and other) species. Well, except for us.

1144. zampaz
Quoting 1137. SunriseSteeda:


Hahaha hilarious, because I liked yours better!

I suck at mockups. You ought to see some of my publications... I am far better at writing. My illustrations look grade school. http://pire.fiu.edu/posters/2010/Mulcahy-James-CI -PIRE-2010-Poster.pdf

I love it, it's fun. I've perused the SourceForge
Electronic Medical Records applications prior to the configuration management certification requirements.
I did quite a bit of database design and Oracle PL/SQL programming. Sorry, off topic, geeked out, how about that swirly thing over Texas, anyway?
It's going the wrong way!
I'll visit your blog.



Quoting 1124. zampaz:

Looking forward to getting to know you better :)
I have great hope for mankind in regard to the future...






Which I can quash. We are running out of cheap energy.
1146. zampaz
Quoting 1142. SunriseSteeda:

We don't prepare for climate change. We adapt to it!

Fortunately the changes are not so sudden that it overwhelms us. Unfortunately it also disguises its effects on our (and other) species. Well, except for us.


Drop by my blog and say Hi, or whatever, as I see you don't have a blog up yet...
Everyone is welcome to drop by and chat.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL STORM CIMARON (T1308)
15:00 PM JST July 17 2013
==================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone In Bashi Channel

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Cimaron (1002 hPa) located at 19.3N 120.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===============
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 21.4N 118.9E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) South China Sea
48 HRS: 23.3N 117.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Taiwan Strait
72 HRS: 25.5N 115.9E - Tropical Depression Overland southern China
Evening / morning all...

Finally have about 3 minutes to look into the blog... The rain around Nassau today was reDICulous... at one point the wind was blowing the torrential rain sideways. It rained pretty much all day, which was a bummer for me because it was a day I had to be on the road... It's a lot easier to go downtown if you can leave your car and walk... didn't have that option today. I haven't looked yet to see what the rainfall totals for today were, but I'll bet they rival or supersede the day's records...



Quoting 1145. TampaCat5:

Which I can quash. We are running out of cheap energy.


"cheap" is variable.

What is expensive today is cheap(er) tomorrow. That's pretty much the mantra of technological advancement!

The idea is, of course, to make what are currently expensive (but preferred) energy sources cheap enough to where it is barely worth it to use outmoded and "dirtier" techniques.

That's where science and engineering mixed with resource investment and patience comes in.
Quoting 1148. BahaHurican:
Evening / morning all...

Finally have about 3 minutes to look into the blog... The rain around Nassau today was reDICulous... at one point the wind was blowing the torrential rain sideways. It rained pretty much all day, which was a bummer for me because it was a day I had to be on the road... It's a lot easier to go downtown if you can leave your car and walk... didn't have that option today. I haven't looked yet to see what the rainfall totals for today were, but I'll bet they rival or supersede the day's records...





We're getting a similar east-to-west flow I think (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach counties). It's been raining much of the last 24 hours here. A shower just blew through a few minutes ago in fact. Looks another day of the same ahead.

From a nearby rain gauge in Coral Springs, 4.38" in the last 24 hours. 20.5" in the last 60 days.
According to WU we got nearly 3 inches of rain yesterday. And it is still raining...
Quoting 1149. SunriseSteeda:


"cheap" is variable.

What is expensive today is cheap(er) tomorrow. That's pretty much the mantra of technological advancement!

The idea is, of course, to make what are currently expensive (but preferred) energy sources cheap enough to where it is barely worth it to use outmoded and "dirtier" techniques.

That's where science and engineering mixed with resource investment and patience comes in.

(sigh) What makes technological advancement possible is abundant (and therefore cheap) energy. This is not variable. We live in a finite world with finite resources, that includes energy. Science and engineering can do squat about resource limits. Depopulation will come, and it won't be murder, it will be the lack of energy to support an insanely unsustainable population.
Read a few articles at this blog to get the big picture.
GFS and ECMWF have been pretty consistent on the next tropical cyclone in the East Pacific by next week and a half.
1154. zampaz
Quoting 1145. TampaCat5:

Which I can quash. We are running out of cheap energy.

Okay, I'll accept that.
How 'bout that swirly thing over Texas, it's going the wrong way!
Questions to consider that we could consider best left for my blog or yours;
Skeptics Safe Haven- Free Speech
By "cheap" do you mean inexpensive in terms of money, or in terms of the the amount of energy we have to put into energy production for a given amount of return?
In terms of "running out" do you mean we are consuming a finite resource?
When will we "run out?" Soon enough that any sooner doesn't matter?
All of these are valid questions; I'm not looking for an answer to, but you should be able to answer them.
In reality money does not exist. Control and distribution of resources exists in reality.
Is the ideological paradigm of the Homo Sapiens faith based currency congruent with reality?
Will this ideological paradigm have to evolve for us to survive GW as a species?
-z:)
Edit: Typo

Quoting 1150. SunriseSteeda:


We're getting a similar east-to-west flow I think (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach counties). It's been raining much of the last 24 hours here. A shower just blew through a few minutes ago in fact. Looks another day of the same ahead.

From a nearby rain gauge in Coral Springs, 4.38" in the last 24 hours. 20.5" in the last 60 days.
Blech. I was hoping for a break tomorrow... I note it's not expected to dry out before Thursday....
Quoting 1152. TampaCat5:

(sigh) What makes tecnilogical advancement possible is abundant (and therefore cheap) energy. This is not variable. We live in a finite world with finite resources, that includes energy. Science and engineering can do squat about resource limits. Depopulation will come, and it won't be murder, it will be the lack of energy to support an insanely unsustainable population.
Read a few articles at this blog to get the big picture.


That would be like saying my peanut butter & jelly sandwich is made possible by wheat fields in Kansas (they do, but only partially so). Scientific discoveries, engineering refinements... those are what enables cheap energy.

The definition of "cheap" energy has indeed changed (varied) over time.

Can't you imagine a time when mining and processing coal was expensive?

When steam energy was expensive?

When dam construction (hydrological) was expensive?

They are all much less expensive now, of course, due to the advancement of the technology that leverages them.... but there was a time when the expense was extraordinarily so, making that form of energy more expensive to produce than benefit gained.

Nuclear energy is safer, and getting cheaper. But it has some rather obvious drawbacks that technology will eventually solve.

Solar energy will likely be the form of energy more immediately leveraged to take over for fossil fuels (which, as you pointed out, is a limited resource).

Where is the limit in solar energy?

(...and then you go off the deep end with your dire and rather short-sighted prediction, the opposite of the big picture you proclaim mere words later...)
1157. zampaz
Thank you SunriseSteeda and TampaCat5 for the fun discussion. appreciate the forbearance of the tropical bloggers waiting for the Gro to Crow.
Nytol!


The center circulation of Cimaron begins to appear on the bottom image of the Taiwan radar.

Quoting 1154. zampaz:

Okay, I'll accept that.
How 'bout that swirly thing over Texas, it's going the wrong way!
Questions to consider that we could consider best left for my blog or yours;
Skeptics Safe Haven- Free Speech
By "cheap" do you mean inexpensive in terms of money, or in terms of the the amount of energy we have to put into energy production for a given amount of return?
In terms of "running out" do you mean we are consuming a finite resource?
When will we "run out?" Soon enough that any sooner doesn't matter?
All of these are valid questions; I'm not looking for an answer to, but you should be able to answer them.
In reality money does not exist. Control and distribution of resources exists in reality.
Is the ideological paradigm of the Homo Sapiens faith based currency congruent with reality?
Will this ideological paradigms have to evolve for us to survive GW as a species?
-z:)

Answers in my blog. I had trouble with the formatting, so they are inline with your quote.
NOAA/USGS graphic showing river observations (7/17/2013)

Yellow is near flood stage. Brown is minor flooding. Red is moderate flooding.




The southeast is already... wet.

The busy season for storms hasn't even arrived. Will we dry out before then, or are we primed for a major flood event accompanying storms later in the season?
1162. Kumo
Imagine being able to convert the excess CO2 in our atmosphere back into hydrocarbon fuels. Not sure how many of you folks have seen this website, just passing it along for those that have not.

http://www.airfuelsynthesis.com/

Imagine if we had enough of these facilities around the world, we might be able to halt the increase of atmospheric CO2 or potentially even reduce it back to pre-industrial levels.

Quoting 1156. SunriseSteeda:


That would be like saying my peanut butter & jelly sandwich is made possible by wheat fields in Kansas (they do, but only partially so). Scientific discoveries, engineering refinements... those are what enables cheap energy.

The definition of "cheap" energy has indeed changed (varied) over time.

Can't you imagine a time when mining and processing coal was expensive?

When steam energy was expensive?

When dam construction (hydrological) was expensive?

They are all much less expensive now, of course, due to the advancement of the technology that leverages them.... but there was a time when the expense was extraordinarily so, making that form of energy more expensive to produce than benefit gained.

Nuclear energy is safer, and getting cheaper. But it has some rather obvious drawbacks that technology will eventually solve.

Solar energy will likely be the form of energy more immediately leveraged to take over for fossil fuels (which, as you pointed out, is a limited resource).

Where is the limit in solar energy?

(...and then you go off the deep end with your dire and rather short-sighted prediction, the opposite of the big picture you proclaim mere words later...)

The things you mention were made cheaper due to abundant fossil fuels, as is technology. The limit to solar energy? You have no idea! Look at the plants that grow naturally around you without the intensive use of fossil fuel inputs. That is all we have, and that can support a human population of around one million without the leverage of fossil fuels. What you seem to not understand is the truly massive amount of energy we derive from fossil fuels.
Quoting 1162. Kumo:
Imagine being able to convert the excess CO2 in our atmosphere back into hydrocarbon fuels. Not sure how many of you folks have seen this website, just passing it along for those that have not.

http://www.airfuelsynthesis.com/

Imagine if we had enough of these facilities around the world, we might be able to halt the increase of atmospheric CO2 or potentially even reduce it back to pre-industrial levels.


And where will the energy come from to create these synthetic fuels?
Quoting 1163. TampaCat5:

The things you mention were made cheaper due to abundant fossil fuels, as is technology. The limit to solar energy? You have no idea! Look at the plants that grow naturally around you without the intensive use of fossil fuel inputs. That is all we have, and that can support a human population of around one million without the leverage of fossil fuels. What you seem to not understand is the truly massive amount of energy we derive from fossil fuels.


No offense, but a what a strangely disjointed, fallacious argument.

>The things you mention were made cheaper due to abundant fossil fuels, as is technology.

Technology is advanced by science. It is implemented with fuels (including fossil) and other resources.

But we're talking about advancing the technology of solar cells, for example. What does fossil fuels have to do with this? Other than the production of the cells themselves, of course.

That is all we have, and that can support a human population of around one million without the leverage of fossil fuels.

Where do you get "around one million", lol? By the way, I bet if every rooftop in South Florida had solar panels, and every wall was coated with solar-collecting materials, the entire southern peninsula would be producing rather than consuming energy. Wonder if I am a magnitude off or more.

What you seem to not understand is the truly massive amount of energy we derive from fossil fuels.

I am not sure whose posts you have been reading, but I don't know how you came to that conclusion about me :) I know how much we consume.

Did you also know that fossil fuels are needed for the production of plastics, paints, makeup, shoes, lubricants for machines, wax, asphalt for our electric cars to drive on, soap, fertilizer, even the capsules that our medicines come in.

Our dependence on fossil fuels and petroleum products cannot be removed. It can only be reduced.

Something like 70% of our consumption is for automobiles.

We start there.

Maybe in a world where most travel is done with cleaner and greener methods self-corrects its climatological ailments.

Quoting 1164. TampaCat5:

And where will the energy come from to create these synthetic fuels?


If you read the information in the link provided (especially the technology page) you will see the answer to your question.

The energy used to synthesize the fuel (extract CO2 from the air and combining it with hydrogen) is from renewable resources (such as wind turbines).

No fossil fuels involved in the production of the new fuel.
Another juicy July day... interesting feature pumping in all this moisture.


These models desperately want something to hit TX or LA...CMC....GFS...whats going on here?
Quoting 1169. Stormchaser121:
These models desperately want something to hit TX or LA...CMC....GFS...whats going on here?


Morning Chaser. Everyone. It's that ULL over Fl right now. Whatever it's going to be I hope it brings its rain with it. :)

...CLOSED LOW OVER FL EARLY THIS MORNING...

PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO SHOW THE MOST CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO
KEEPING THE IDENTITY OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OTHER 00Z MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME KEEPING THE CLOSED
LOW IN THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 2 DAYS.

AFTER THAT...THE 00Z NAM IS THE MOST ZEALOUS SOLUTION WITH RESPECT
TO DEVELOPING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
IS THE MOST DEVELOPED AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A LOW TO THE TX/LA
BORDER BY 84 HOURS. THE 00Z CMC SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT IS
NOT QUITE AS DEVELOPED. THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT 00Z NAM OR CMC
SOLUTIONS...SO THEY CANNOT BE RECOMMENDED AT THIS POINT. THE 00Z
UKMET WAS CLOSE WITH THE CLUSTERING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...AS
WAS THE 00Z ECMWF...SO A 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND IS PREFERRED.
1171. GatorWX
Quoting 1166. Civicane49:


hmmmmmm
1172. GatorWX
Quoting 1170. AtHomeInTX:


Morning Chaser. Everyone. It's that ULL over Fl right now. Whatever it's going to be I hope it brings its rain with it. :)

...CLOSED LOW OVER FL EARLY THIS MORNING...

PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO SHOW THE MOST CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO
KEEPING THE IDENTITY OF THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN FL EARLY THIS
MORNING. MOST OTHER 00Z MODELS HAVE A HARD TIME KEEPING THE CLOSED
LOW IN THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE FIRST 2 DAYS.

AFTER THAT...THE 00Z NAM IS THE MOST ZEALOUS SOLUTION WITH RESPECT
TO DEVELOPING THE UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND
IS THE MOST DEVELOPED AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A LOW TO THE TX/LA
BORDER BY 84 HOURS. THE 00Z CMC SHOWS SOMETHING SIMILAR...BUT IS
NOT QUITE AS DEVELOPED. THERE IS NOT MUCH SUPPORT 00Z NAM OR CMC
SOLUTIONS...SO THEY CANNOT BE RECOMMENDED AT THIS POINT. THE 00Z
UKMET WAS CLOSE WITH THE CLUSTERING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...AS
WAS THE 00Z ECMWF...SO A 00Z GFS/00Z ECMWF BLEND IS PREFERRED.


I'd keep an eye on it.




NAM


CMC
1174. GatorWX


Not much of a pressure drop in Miami, but I do see a good wind switch.
Quoting 1172. GatorWX:


I'd keep an eye on it.






pretty good vort there. I'll be watchin' it. :)
1176. barbamz
Good morning! --- Southeastern China really gets it this year:

Tropical Depression after Typhoon Soulik
BBC weather video: 16 July 2013 Last updated at 17:04

Philip Avery has the latest on the impacts of Typhoon Soulik and the track of the Tropical Depression that is following it.
1177. VR46L
Quoting 1173. Stormchaser121:
NAM


CMC


I am less enthusiastic today than yesterday on that solution . But find it curious that 2 of the models have not shaken the idea off yet ...

BTW Good Morning Folks!!!
Lake Charles' computers are down so nothing new out of them. This is what Houston says about the disturbance.

MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLE ALL LEANING TOWARDS A UNSETTLED GOM SCENARIO
...WITH AN EASTERN GULF TUTT (LOWER HEIGHT FIELD)...TRAVELING
WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH LATE WEEK. NWP SUITE IS PICKING UP
ON THE REGION OF DISTURBED WEATHER (DISPLAYING WEAK ROTATION) OVER
THE BAHAMAS. THIS FEATURE WILL HAVE TO TRACK THROUGH HIGHER EASTERN
GULF WIND SHEAR AND RETAIN ITSELF ON THE OTHER SIDE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF BEFORE SERIOUS TALK BEGINS ON ITS TROPICAL POTENTIAL. EXCLUDING
THE NAM80 SOLUTION OF CLOSING OFF A FEATURE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL
GULF EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...ALL THE OTHER PROGNOSTICATIONS EVOLVE A
WEAK INVERTED TROUGH/WEAK MID-UPPER HEIGHT FIELD OVER THE WESTERN
GULF BY THE WEEKEND. AS OF NOW...THE AXIS OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS
OFF TO THE EAST...THUS HIGHER RAINFALL PROBS WILL STAY OVER THE
GULF. WITH THAT BEING SAID...DUE TO THE VICINITY OF THIS TROF/WEAKNESS...
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY
WAVES MOVING UNDER THE SOUTHERN BELLY OF A CENTRAL MS VALLEY RIDGE WILL
KEEP THE MENTION OF PRECIPITATION ALIVE THROUGH SUNDAY OR MONDAY.
THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS FOR GENERAL RIDGING AT ALL LEVELS CONTROLLING
THE LATE JULY WEATHER PATTERN. THUS...HOT (UPPER 90S-LOW 100 MAX TEMPS)
AND MUCH DRIER (PRECIPITATION-WISE) WEATHER APPEARS TO MAKE A COMEBACK.

&&
1179. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
538 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-172330-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
538 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST FLORIDA TODAY. STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND POSSIBLY SOME
SMALL HAIL AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REMEMBER
IF THUNDER IS HEARD OR LIGHTNING IS OBSERVED MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

...WIND AND SEA IMPACT...
EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE ALONG WITH SEAS OF 2 TO
4 FEET WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OFFSHORE GULF WATERS BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND TARPON
SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60NM TODAY...AND ALL SMALL CRAFT OPERATORS SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY TONIGHT...THEN
LIGHTER WINDS AND LOWER SEAS WILL RETURN TO THE GULF WATERS ON
THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CYPRESS CREEK AT
WORTHINGTON GARDENS THROUGH THURSDAY...AND THE MYAKKA RIVER AT THE
MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER THE RIVER AND CREEK TODAY COULD CAUSE A FURTHER RISE
IN WATER LEVELS AND MORE PRONOUNCED FLOODING THROUGH THE PERIOD.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG RIVERS AND FASTER FLOWING STREAMS SHOULD
REMAIN ALERT TO ANY RAPID RISES IN WATERS LEVELS AND BE READY TO
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED.
1180. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs Coffee is Perked for when you get here..enjoy..
1181. GatorWX
1182. LargoFl
1183. GatorWX
1184. LargoFl
1185. LargoFl
any flooding down around south florida?..they have been getting all the heavy rains the last few days like we in central florida had been getting it for the last month..didnt rain a drop by me yesterday,first time in a whole month...that..is supposed to change tomorrow..rains return local mets say...
Quoting 1165. SunriseSteeda:


No offense, but a what a strangely disjointed, fallacious argument.

>
That is all we have, and that can support a human population of around one million without the leverage of fossil fuels.

Where do you get "around one million", lol? By the way, I bet if every rooftop in South Florida had solar panels, and every wall was coated with solar-collecting materials, the entire southern peninsula would be producing rather than consuming energy. Wonder if I am a magnitude off or more.

Yes you are an order of magnitude off in the wrong direction, not to mention this would cost trillions (yes, trillions!) of dollars to implement. You don't seem to understand the scale of things. If all we have is solar energy and wind energy and no fossil fuels to subsidize the production of solar cells and wind turbines all we are left with is photosynthesis. When, in the distant past, Homo sapiens lived sustainably, we had a population of less than one million and that we will return to when we've used up all the resources we are able to extract.
1187. LargoFl
Looks like dry air heading into the gulf this morning...
1188. LargoFl
48 hour rainfall per the NAM model...................
1189. GatorWX
Quoting 1185. LargoFl:
any flooding down around south florida?..they have been getting all the heavy rains the last few days like we in central florida had been getting it for the last month..didnt rain a drop by me yesterday,first time in a whole month...that..is supposed to change tomorrow..rains return local mets say...


That surface trough was interesting yesterday. Only a very small bit of rain, more north and south of me, but solid 25kt winds, 35kt gusts. Venice reported 41 mph. It's been breezy since, had an almost cool feel immediately after it passed. I'm in Englewood. Running about a 17 inch 30 day rain tally here, only 1-2" locally of late.
GFS keeps it all mid level still.

1191. barbamz
Antarctic Angst: Russia Blamed for Failed Nature Reserve Talks
Spiegel English, July 16, 2013 – 07:39 PM

Hopes had been high for the creation of two vast nature preserves off the coast of Antarctica. But a key meeting in Germany ended without agreement. Environmental groups are pointing their fingers at Russia.

There had been optimism in some quarters that countries around the world would be able to agree this week on the establishment of two vast marine preserves in the oceans surrounding Antarctica. But on Tuesday, the Commission of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), a group of 24 countries plus the European Union, was unable to reach consensus at their special meeting in Bremerhaven, Germany. And environmental groups were left accusing Russia of being responsible for the failure. ...


Photo Gallery: The Natural Treasures of the Antarctic

1192. GatorWX
Ft Lauderdale

Quoting 1162. Kumo:
Imagine being able to convert the excess CO2 in our atmosphere back into hydrocarbon fuels. Not sure how many of you folks have seen this website, just passing it along for those that have not.

http://www.airfuelsynthesis.com/

Imagine if we had enough of these facilities around the world, we might be able to halt the increase of atmospheric CO2 or potentially even reduce it back to pre-industrial levels.

I've heard about AFS. These guys are basically using energy to unburn fuel so it can be burned again. ;-) They claim to use 60 kWh of electrical energy to store 9 kWh of that energy in a liter of gasoline. Given that gasoline vehicles are about 15% efficient, a car fueled with synthetic gas, then, would use roughly 35 times more energy on a given trip than would an electric vehicle.

Ulp.

AFS's proposed solution is basically a five-step process, each of those steps using enormous sums of energy. That hardly seems viable, does it? In short, AFS is turning gold into straw. One can appreciate their optimism and creativity, but the answer is to kick our addiction, not find ways to make our own crack.
i am still watching this tropical wave
I am still watching this tropical wave Eastern Atlantic
1196. GatorWX
Sure looks like it wants to.

little spin near sw fl. upper levels winds will squash that.
1198. VR46L
Quoting 1187. LargoFl:
Looks like dry air heading into the gulf this morning...


A little but looks pretty moist to me

1199. GatorWX
Quoting 1195. hurricanes2018:
I am still watching this tropical wave Eastern Atlantic


Looks pretty barren out there.

1200. Gearsts
1201. VR46L
Quoting 1195. hurricanes2018:
I am still watching this tropical wave Eastern Atlantic


There is no deep convection in it and its very dry out there I doubt it will make it to the Caribbean .
looking at models more than a wk out is a waste of band width.
1203. VR46L
Quoting 1202. islander101010:
looking at models more than a wk out is a waste of band width.


At the moment there is just nothing showing in the GFS PERIOD ...

North Atlantic Ocean MSLP Anomaly ~ Levi's
1204. GatorWX
Longer loop:

Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

I will not be surprised at all if the CSU team go slightly down when they release the August 2nd forecast from the 18/9/4 numbers they had in the April forecast.
1206. VR46L
Quoting 1205. Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all,evening Aussie.

I will not be surprised at all if the CSU team go slightly down when they release the August 2nd forecast from the 18/9/4 numbers they had in the April forecast.


Neither would I as it would need to storm one a week for that forecast to work and when you consider the Atlantic is pretty much Shut down for business right now its going to be hard to see those numbers happening
1207. viman
I have a quick question, and if it has been addressed before then I apologize. But why is it that the Wunderground Tropical Weather page is showing 97L and the NHC is not showing anything? TIA
this blog and others were developed in hyper-active phase for hurricanes. wonder if they would of had the same success back in the 80s when it was slow.
97L is "blobbing" up
1211. SLU
So the GFS for 3 consecutive runs has dropped the Cape Verde wave.

Quoting 1206. VR46L:


Neither would I as it would need to storm one a week for that forecast to work and when you consider the Atlantic is pretty much Shut down for business right now its going to be hard to see those numbers happening


Unless there is a good final season burst in October,I just can't see those 18/9/4 verifying.
1213. pottery
Quoting VR46L:


At the moment there is just nothing showing in the GFS PERIOD ...

North Atlantic Ocean MSLP Anomaly ~ Levi's

Yep.
Dryness predominates all over.
Just had a nice shower here with .25'' in the gauge though.

The WV images (we had a discussion about them yesterday) are a bit confusing...
If you look at the ones that are biased toward moisture, you get a very different picture to the ones that are biased toward dryness (the SAL image is a reference).

Right now, there is some cloud across the Trop. Atl., which is the ITCZ basically.
But in fact it's all pretty minimal.
Hard to see where anything can develop.

Big changes will have to happen real fast if we are to see anything before the end of July.
Not saying it cannot happen, but right now it's looking unlikely.
South Florida looks like we did back in March and April. South Beach is AWESOME but I'd venture to bet today isn't one of those days. At least not for beach goers....

Nat

i believe the atlantic will be kept very quiet over the next 4 to 6 weeks due to alot of dry air and high wind shear
1216. pottery

This was discussed yesterday as well.
The NHC tagged it and declared that it was purely for in-house research purposes or some such thing.
It was never a threat or a possibility.

EDIT.
Sorry, this was a response to post 1215.
Am I wrong for thinking this is laziness?

Below is a quote from our local NWS forecast discussion:

"Unfortunately computer issues have struck the office this morning
with basically no new model data available for this forecast
package. However quick perusal of data on the internet shows that
forecast conditions look about status quo this morning...thus no
changes have been made to inherited grids/forecasts at this time.
Appropriate personnel are working on the computer issues and we
hope to have everything ironed out in time for the afternoon
package later today. In the meantime here is the prior forecast
thinking..."
1218. pottery
Quoting thunderstromsmike:
i believe the atlantic will be kept very quiet over the next 4 to 6 weeks due to alot of dry air and high wind shear

That's a long time.....
Quoting 1215. thunderstromsmike:
i believe the atlantic will be kept very quiet over the next 4 to 6 weeks due to alot of dry air and high wind shear

This is one of the most recent years I can remember in a long time where dry air is hardly an issue. Of course that could change in the upcoming weeks but I just don't see it right now.

Look at the WV image below. That's some pretty moist air...

Pssst. Dry air is the ugly orange color. I ain't seeing it.

Quoting 1218. pottery:

That's a long time.....
yes it is but take a look at the forcast for the next 4 to 6 weeks dry air and high shear wont give up they say..... could see drastically lower storms this year
1221. pottery
Quoting SouthernIllinois:

This is one of the most recent years I can remember in a long time where dry air is hardly an issue. Of course that could change in the upcoming weeks but I just don't see it right now.

Look at the WV image below. That's some pretty moist air...

Pssst. Dry air is the ugly orange color. I ain't seeing it.



But the white areas are very, VERY borderline.
1222. hydrus
Quoting 1220. thunderstromsmike:
yes it is but take a look at the forcast for the next 4 to 6 weeks dry air and high shear wont give up they say..... could see drastically lower storms this year
You will not get any complaints from me if they do. Hurricanes have destroyed lives and killed many.
The big picture...

Quoting 1210. bryanfromkyleTX:
97L is "blobbing" up



there is no 97L
1225. barbamz
From Twitter

NWS Miami %u200F@NWSMiami 2m
Rains have been falling over a large portion of Miami-Dade and Broward Counties...Flood Advisory in effect! Please forward photos! #FLw
x

I was watching the Miami harbour cam the last hour. The rains really have been crazy! View was totally wiped out for some time. So there is no sense to post some screenshots, lol.

Edit:
Weather alert: Flood warning issued for Miami-Dade and Broward
An urban flood advisory was issued for Miami-Dade and Broward till 9:15 a.m. as many areas have received 1 to over 3 inches of rain.
Good morning all, 78 with 85% hymidity here in sticky NOLA
1227. hydrus
Tones of rain here in Boynton beach I don't mind its filling up my rain catcher
1229. hydrus
Quoting 1226. StormPro:
Good morning all, 78 with 85% hymidity here in sticky NOLA
One could swim in the air there.


Here in Rock Island, TN-

Fair

70°F

21°C

Humidity93%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.38 in (1026.4 mb)
Dewpoint68°F (20°C)
Visibility8.00 mi

Last Update on 17 Jul 6:53 am CDT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W/23W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 22W AND 26W IN THE ITCZ.
Quoting 1229. hydrus:
One could swim in the air there.


Here in Rock Island, TN-

Fair

70°F

21°C

Humidity93%
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer30.38 in (1026.4 mb)
Dewpoint68°F (20°C)
Visibility8.00 mi

Last Update on 17 Jul 6:53 am CDT


I'm heading to Nashvegas Friday morning then over to Chattanooga Sunday thru Tuesday. So looking forward to a tad bit of difference in the daytime highs and nighttime lows
Quoting 1224. Tazmanian:



there is no 97L


what is that in the Bay of Campeche'? Random storms? Could be a piece of it.
1233. SLU
Quoting 1212. Tropicsweatherpr:


Unless there is a good final season burst in October,I just can't see those 18/9/4 verifying.


Remember in 2010 we had 2 storms by this date and ended up with 19.

In 2012, a year with less favourable conditions than this year, we had 4 storms in June, 0 in July and also ended with 19.

I see no season why we can't get at least 17 - 19 this year unless if August turns out to be unexpectedly quiet.

Five in August and 6 in September would put us at 14 named storms with 2 months to go. If the cold-biased neutral conditions hold, October could also be very active with 3 - 5 storms which would take us to 19 easily.

... and I didn't even mention the possibility of additional development in July.
Quoting 1212. Tropicsweatherpr:


Unless there is a good final season burst in October,I just can't see those 18/9/4 verifying.
October? What about August and September? I'm not saying 18/9/4 will happen, but it's far too early to say that it can't or won't. Remember in 2010 when the 'C' storm didn't form until August 3, and the 'D' storm not until August 22? And then after that it was off to the races, with the tally over the next 30 days up to 12/7/5, and a week later 14/7/5? With 23 of those days having at least two concurrent storms, and seven having three concurrent storms?

This year may be a dud so far as the final tally--but here in mid-July, that's a tough and premature call to make...
1235. hydrus
Quoting 1231. StormPro:


I'm heading to Nashvegas Friday morning then over to Chattanooga Sunday thru Tuesday. So looking forward to a tad bit of difference in the daytime highs and nighttime lows
Theres a trough that is forecast to affect the area in a few days, should cool things off a little.
Quoting 1232. bryanfromkyleTX:


what is that in the Bay of Campeche'? Random storms? Could be a piece of it.



there is nothing out there 97L was olny a test
1237. bigtp3
Mornin' all!
Steady rain falling here in South Florida.

* AT 659 AM EDT... MINOR STREET FLOODING HAS BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE MIAMI BEACH, DORAL AND SWEETWATER AREAS. RAIN CONTINUES ACROSS THIS REGION... AND HEAVIER RAIN WAS BEGINNING TO REDEVELOP. SO THE FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED.

The standing water in my yard is going to be around a while longer...
1238. barbamz
Quoting 1236. Tazmanian:



there is nothing out there 97L was olny a test


I really wonder why WU has alleged 97L still on their start page. Some sort of revenge, lol?
anyone look at 26 west!!
26 WEST!!

What a disappointment... not only the GFS drops the wave, but it also shows a weakness in the ridge :( Weakness means fish and boring weather.
Good Morning. Not too much to report this morning as to the Atlantic except the observation that the ITCZ is firing around the 8N-9N position per today's Hovmoller (below). Will start to rise in earnest to the 10N mark over the next four weeks.

Link

1244. barbamz

Some rain for Houston is moving in.
Good morning from a dry NW Florida! We haven't seen this low of a chance of rain in over a month. Forecast calls for a 20% chance of a stray afternoon thunderstorm today! Luckily the rain that passed yesterday missed my house and my yard should have a chance to dry out some!
1246. pcola57
Quoting 1206. VR46L:


Neither would I as it would need to storm one a week for that forecast to work and when you consider the Atlantic is pretty much Shut down for business right now its going to be hard to see those numbers happening


Good Morning VR46L..
I agree to a point..
My #'s still stand at 16/6/4..
Not gonnna change them as I see it as a busy one coming up in 2 weeks..
I wouldn't change them anyway as that is what I really feel will come in at..
When Max started that list I started looking at long range and noticed how unstable even short term forecasts of the Bermuda High was and how strong the East Pac was predicted..
That takes away from our basin..
I do think that we will have plenty to watch and hopefully track out to sea..
Observed at: Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 8:00 AM EDT Wednesday 17 July 2013
Condition:Partly Cloudy
Pressure:30.2 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:12 miles
Temperature:81.7°F
Dewpoint:74.7°F
Humidity:79%
Wind:WSW 6 mph
Humidex: 101
1248. LargoFl
Quoting 1245. 69Viking:
Good morning from a dry NW Florida! We haven't seen this low of a chance of rain in over a month. Forecast calls for a 20% chance of a stray afternoon thunderstorm today! Luckily the rain that passed yesterday missed my house and my yard should have a chance to dry out some!
GOOD MORNING..yes we need this drying out time also here on the gulf coast..but local mets say the rains return tomorrow..we'll see what happens.
1249. barbamz

Watching the waves, esp. the one at the Cape Verde Islands. --- Have a nice day, everyone!
Fact of the matter, in terms of numbers, is that you either have an average, above-average, or below-average season predictions. In the current active period, we have had above-average seasons in recent years and the Gray & Company "totals" predictions, whether from the May predictions or August updates have been pretty close to the end of season actual numbers.

My point is we have tons of folks on here (mostly trolls) who make all the pre-season comments about the season being a "bust" just to buck science or get a response from folks on here.

Just ignore their comments.
1251. LargoFl
the rains return with a vengence florida starting tomorrow and maybe thru the weekend again.......
Morning/Evening

A shower a day keeps the salt water at bay.
Quoting 1242. CaribBoy:
What a disappointment... not only the GFS drops the wave, but it also shows a weakness in the ridge :( Weakness means fish and boring weather.
I think you are right about the weakness in the ridge
Quoting 1248. LargoFl:
GOOD MORNING..yes we need this drying out time also here on the gulf coast..but local mets say the rains return tomorrow..we'll see what happens.


My forecast calls for rain chances of just 30%-40% for the next 6 days. Hopefully that means just sea breeze thunderstorms inland and we can dry out some along the immediate coastline.
NHC "testing" the South Florida area of clouds


NHC 88L TEST 20130717 1200 250N 0790W
1256. LargoFl
well it IS..our rainy season huh..at least we ARE getting it this year..
the GFS doesnt develop the wave like its previous runs but still. it shows conditions will be favorable and end of july is where we should be watching for dorian
1258. RTLSNK
if we dont have any new name storms buy AUG 20th hurricane season will be a bust
1260. LargoFl
Quoting 1259. Tazmanian:
if we dont have any new name storms buy AUG 20th hurricane season will be a bust
well IF that does happen..its a good thing..folks lives get ruined when these storms hit...
Quoting 1259. Tazmanian:
if we dont have any new name storms buy AUG 20th hurricane season will be a bust


Unless we get an Andrew type storm make landfall somewhere around August 24th.............. :)
somehing to watch here!!
1263. LargoFl
Quoting 1234. Neapolitan:
October? What about August and September? I'm not saying 18/9/4 will happen, but it's far too early to say that it can't or won't. Remember in 2010 when the 'C' storm didn't form until August 3, and the 'D' storm not until August 22? And then after that it was off to the races, with the tally over the next 30 days up to 12/7/5, and a week later 14/7/5? With 23 of those days having at least two concurrent storms, and seven having three concurrent storms?

This year may be a dud so far as the final tally--but here in mid-July, that's a tough and premature call to make...


I like you thinking. The point is valid. Do you THINK 18/9/4 has a realistic chance?
i think are high is a little too strong may be thats why where not see march in a way of any thing right now
1266. LargoFl
Quoting 1259. Tazmanian:
if we dont have any new name storms buy AUG 20th hurricane season will be a bust


That is an emotional statement- not based on science.
Quoting 1259. Tazmanian:
if we dont have any new name storms buy AUG 20th hurricane season will be a bust


The season ma be a bust but it only takes one to bust you up if your on the coast!
1269. pcola57
Quoting 1254. 69Viking:


My forecast calls for rain chances of just 30%-40% for the next 6 days. Hopefully that means just sea breeze thunderstorms inland and we can dry out some along the immediate coastline.


Morning 69Viking..
I hope to dry out some as well..
I see you had a decent Warned t'storm yesterday evening..
Or did it pass you by?..
I have been enjoying the less than average temps..
Had a surgery and am re-cooping..
Ready for the worst though..
2010 didnt see its season start until august 20th
1271. LargoFl
well the rains return for my city tomorrow.........................THURSDAY
Mostly cloudy with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 80s. East winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the evening...then isolated showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Lows in the mid 70s near the coast and in the lower 70s inland. Southeast winds around 5 mph. Chance of rain 30 percent.
1272. pcola57
Looking like a good beach day on tap..
Just watch for the rip currents..

good day here in st Augustine. Off to pull my blue crab traps.
Quoting 1265. Tazmanian:
i think are high is a little too strong may be thats why where not see march in a way of any thing right now


Or we are just approaching the "ramp-up" of the season


1275. barbamz
Quoting 1255. nrtiwlnvragn:
NHC "testing" the South Florida area of clouds


NHC 88L TEST 20130717 1200 250N 0790W


WU should add it to their start page, lol.


Screenshot some minutes ago.
1276. pcola57
Quoting 1275. barbamz:


WU should add it to their start page, lol.



Morning barb..
German is soo cool to see on the WU screenshot you posted..
I can make out most of it..
I know absolutely no German.. :)
1277. barbamz
Quoting 1276. pcola57:


Morning barb..
German is soo cool to see on the WU screenshot you posted..
I can make out most of it..
I know absolutely no German.. :)


Yeah, nice mixture of English and German, lol.
watching the windwards system popcorn showers right now
lol "unwetter" - German is cool!
1280. LargoFl
7day for the Tampa Bay area.....................
I do believe the nhc will lower their storm numbers drastically next.... this is do to continuing hear wind shear and dry air throught out the atlantic and caribean though later part of august
Funny reading back over the comments, now the season is going to be slow. Such a reaction to the 24 hour setup. Our "get it now" society.

Answer to flooding issues -- in deep south dade where we are there is just a lot of standing water, and little canals & lakes where there really aren't any. It doesn't take long for the water to drain down. That doesn't mean its not really wet here!
1284. Grothar
We are getting hit with one heavy tropical downpour after another. Minor street is already occurring and more is coming. We didn't really expect this much rain. Our gauge shows 3 inches since last night. But this rain is HEAVY.

1285. xcool
I agree Tazmanian
1286. 7544
new blob in the bahammas ?

heavy rain in south fl for most of today make that buckets

will the new bahama blob also head west for more

will gro a sfl man largo . georfy and and others there need a boat this week lol ?
when they say 90% chance of rain here in florida we dont get anything just like every year when they say above average hurricanes we get nothing
1288. pcola57
Quoting 1287. thunderstromsmike:
when they say 90% chance of rain here in florida we dont get anything just like every year when they say above average hurricanes we get nothing


Can't really tell if your wishing for a hurricaine..
But if you are, be careful what ya wish for.. :)
Quoting 1288. pcola57:


Can't really tell if your wishing for a hurricaine..
But if you are, be careful what ya wish for.. :)
im not wishing for a hurricane at all ive been through to many and dont want them..... i was just stating a fact of how wrong forcasting can be
1290. Grothar
This is definitely a blob. Now you people are getting good at this.


1291. pcola57
Quoting 1289. thunderstromsmike:
im not wishing for a hurricane at all ive been through to many and dont want them..... i was just stating a fact of how wrong forcasting can be


I see your point..
Forecasting is ..well..forecasting..
A toss of the data dice.. :)
no way we are getting 16 to 20 names storm now..more like 14 to 16 names storms
Quoting 1243. weathermanwannabe:
Good Morning. Not too much to report this morning as to the Atlantic except the observation that the ITCZ is firing around the 8N-9N position per today's Hovmoller (below). Will start to rise in earnest to the 10N mark over the next four weeks.

Link


In less than 2 weeks to ITCZ has risen from around 6N to 8/9N not bad. I still think there will be a storm to form around the last week of the month as the MJO is actually retrograding backward back into the Atlantic epecially in the Eastern Atlantic and Africa where it will provide the upward motion to support and spin up large tropical waves.



Take a look at Africa this maybe overdone a bit but I expect some really large vigorous waves out of this setup if it verifies
Quoting 1259. Tazmanian:
if we dont have any new name storms buy AUG 20th hurricane season will be a bust


Really man? I am taking my chips to Vegas on this. You better not be wrong.

All jokes aside, this is about the craziest thing I have heard all day. Models will NEVER be good at predicting past 10 days for a while, and making such far fetched statements like this one can easily damage your credibility.

Give the Hurricane Season some time, and wait to make statements such as this until we are in November and have actually been able to see if the season was a bust.
Quoting 1291. pcola57:


I see your point..
Forecasting is ..well..forecasting..
A toss of the data dice.. :)
just like this entire past weekend they said we would have from 3 to 6 inches of rain between friday and sunday night here in daytona and we barely saw a sprinkle and it was sunny all weekend
1296. LargoFl
Quoting 1284. Grothar:
We are getting hit with one heavy tropical downpour after another. Minor street is already occurring and more is coming. We didn't really expect this much rain. Our gauge shows 3 inches since last night. But this rain is HEAVY.

stay safe down there gro, your getting what we in central florida got for a whole month..man that street flooding can really be dangerous when your driving..
1297. LargoFl
Calling a season a bust on 7/17? Seriously?

Trolling, trolling, trolling...IMO.
1299. pcola57
Quoting 1295. thunderstromsmike:
just like this entire past weekend they said we would have from 3 to 6 inches of rain between friday and sunday night here in daytona and we barely saw a sprinkle and it was sunny all weekend


Frustrating when you have/make plans..
I know..
I think Daytona will get its due.. :)
Quoting 1294. boltdwright:


Really man? I am taking my chips to Vegas on this. You better not be wrong.

All jokes aside, this is about the craziest thing I have heard all day. Models will NEVER be good at predicting past 10 days for a while, and making such far fetched statements like this one can easily damage your credibility.

Give the Hurricane Season some time, and wait to make statements such as this until we are in November and have actually been able to see if the season was a bust.
.


Lol. Good luck in winning
1301. LargoFl
Oops, late again!
Well, just a cloudy day here in Lantana so far, but that doesn't mean it's not a Good Morning!

7:34 am (11:34 GMT)



Looking south where all the rain is, no precip for us yet today.

Dexter does his impression of some people I've talked to about hurricane season - and buries his head in the sand.

I've got to get a better camera to take Dex pics with. My 3 1/2 + yr old Nexus 1 snaps the photo a full 2 seconds after I press the shutter button. Hard to get the cute money shot that way.

Also, I've been forgetting to mention - you may have noticed one of Dexter's tags has a QR code imprinted on it. The QR code can be scanned by any smartphone, and will show the person who scans whatever info we wish to provide. It also immediately sends us an email showing the exact geographical location of the scan. Dex is also 'chipped', but that requires a special scanner. I won't take time to go into detail, but I highly recommend it. Go to PetHub.com to find out more.

Amazingly, we only picked up a little over a quarter of an inch of rain yesterday. NWS says 80% for us today. We'll see...



(from WU)
Today is forecast to be cooler than yesterday.
High risk of rip currents Atlantic beaches...
Wednesday...
Mostly cloudy with a chance of a thunderstorm and rain showers, then thunderstorms and rain showers in the afternoon. High of 84F. Winds from the NE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 70% with rainfall amounts near 0.2 in. possible.
1303. pcola57
Quoting 1302. mikatnight: I've been forgetting to mention - you may have noticed one of Dexter's tags has a QR code imprinted on it. The QR code can be scanned by any smartphone, and will show the person who scans whatever info we wish to provide. It also immediately sends us an email showing the exact geographical location of the scan. Dex is also 'chipped', but that requires a special scanner. I won't take time to go into detail, but I highly recommend it. Go to PetHub.com to find out more.


Wow..
Did not know that about the smart chip(/QR coded tag..)
Will look into it for sure..
Thanks Mik..
Quoting 1290. Grothar:
This is definitely a blob. Now you people are getting good at this.


.


It still dos not matter I saw it 1st
1305. 7544
Quoting 1290. Grothar:
This is definitely a blob. Now you people are getting good at this.




yep but will it also move west to south fl tia

bahammas is goin to be the sweet spot this year imo wait till a strom reaches there it will expolde
1306. barbamz
Woah, now Gro's world is wiped out by rain - at least on the screen of the webcam.
Really interesting weather you've got over there!
As the ITCZ rise it will continue to bring favorable conditions aloft to support those Tropical waves



SAL has lost it coverage tremendously since Chantal was first in the MDR there may be one or two more outbreaks but nothing significant if MJO & ITCZ start cranking out more waves. I do believe this year will be heavily MDR systems but most of the active seasons from 2010 has had many Mid-latitudes storm that make them look really active. This season wont have much mid-latitude system (if at all)thus 14-17 storms is reasonable but there will be a substantial increased chance of landfalls as all storm this year have affected the three most vulnerable areas for storms this year Mexico/Central America (Barry), Gulf/Florida (Andrea), Greater Antilles (Chantal). Even if the High weakens some it will only be reinforced by the ridge over Eastern Canada with that being said I don't see much storms recurving before they reach 60W.
Gro is probably ready to cry uncle.......


JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Didn't get any rain till after 7PM last evening, then received more rain overnight for a whopping 0.75" total this morning. And there's Gro over there getting 3"
1311. etxwx
Good morning all. Hope you are back to feeling 100% soon pcola. I guess it's pointless to hope you Floridians stay dry, but do stay safe...and maybe google up some ark plans. Or just consult Grothar, he probably still has the originals. :)

Not a bad forecast here for East Texas...Wednesday........Variable clouds with a 40 percent coverage of showers and thunderstorms, Highs near 90. Winds southeasterly at 5-16 mph.


mikatnight, tell Dexter Capt Jack says thanks for the pet tag info.

Quoting 1307. Hurricanes305:
As the ITCZ rise it will continue to bring favorable conditions aloft to support those Tropical waves



SAL has lost it coverage tremendously since Chantal was first in the MDR there may be one or two more outbreaks but nothing significant if MJO & ITCZ start cranking out more waves. I do believe this year will be heavily MDR systems but most of the active seasons from 2010 has had many Mid-latitudes storm that make them look really active. This season wont have much mid-latitude system (if at all)thus 14-17 storms is reasonable but there will be a substantial increased chance of landfalls as all storm this year have affected the three most vulnerable areas for storms this year Mexico/Central America (Barry), Gulf/Florida (Andrea), Greater Antilles (Chantal). Even if the High weakens some it will only be reinforced by the ridge over Eastern Canada with that being said I don't see much storms recurving before they reach 60W.
.

Wind shear. Been high most of the season. So far
What's for breakfast?

Since Water is Power and Power is Water... climate change, carbon,...

As for Florida Solar, my neighbor has a net zero bill, and about 13,000 covered the cost for a family of 4 and they should pay for itself in 4 to 7 years. That is less than 4,000 per person and make more than that over the lifetime of the panels.

Given that the War's cost the US 12,000 PER PERSON back in 2012 and gained US citizens ZERO economic dividends in the future, how can we afford not to make Trillion dollar investments to pay of trillion dollar debt? Over the lifetime of the US wide panel investment, it would generate money and cover some of the war interest we owe. [if it were practical everywhere]
1314. Grothar
Quoting 1277. barbamz:


Yeah, nice mixture of English and German, lol.


Are you giving German lessons again? You know they will never pronounce it properly. You know how we are from Hannover.
1315. barbamz
Quoting 1314. Grothar:


Are you giving German lessons again? You know they will never pronounce it properly. You know how we are from Hannover.


Gro, new blog, lol!
Quoting 1269. pcola57:


Morning 69Viking..
I hope to dry out some as well..
I see you had a decent Warned t'storm yesterday evening..
Or did it pass you by?..
I have been enjoying the less than average temps..
Had a surgery and am re-cooping..
Ready for the worst though..


It came from the East and went along the coast through Destin and then as it approached FWB it started to shrink and edge North and just missed me as I live just West of FWB right along the Sound. I can remember praying for rain and last night I was happy that it missed me. I still need a few more days of no rain for the low are in my front yard to dry up so I mow the lawn.
no blob here just drizzle in e cen florida
seems like alittle spin just sw of florda heading due west. also watching the windwds wave. last night popcorn showers starting showing and the trend has increased. we might see a wave develop just east
of the windwards this yr no doubt its a hot spot.
Earthquake.com just reported an 8.2 hippo-quake near Paris. Hippos have emerged from the crevasses and are stampeding through the wreckage. I thought sharknadoes were bad....but this!!!!

















Quoting 1319. eyewallblues:
Earthquake.com just reported an 8.2 hippo-quake near Paris. Hippos have emerged from the crevasses and are stampeding through the wreckage. I thought sharknadoes were bad....but this!!!!


















I think fire hurricanes are the worst.