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Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:57 PM GMT on June 07, 2009

An area of disturbed weather is bringing some heavy rains to Nicaragua and Honduras and the adjacent waters of the Western Caribbean. This disturbance has generated 2 - 3 inches of rain over these countries over the past two days, and is likely to bring an additional 2 - 3 inches of rain to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua over the next two days. The disturbance is expected to gradually drift northwards, bringing heavy rain to the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba by Monday or Tuesday. The disturbance is under prohibitively high wind shear of 30 - 40 knots, and is not a threat to develop today or Monday. Some of the computer models are predicting wind shear may fall low enough to allow development of this system 4 - 7 days from now, but the models have been rather inconsistent in the location and timing of any such development. For now, the chances of a tropical depression forming from this disturbance within the next week appear low, less than 30%.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance.

I'll have an update Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

i know yer looking right about now
1002. IKE
Seems to be holding it's own this morning on visible satellite.
I really did not think I would wake up this morning to see our "blob" with so much convection still. So often the convection comes and go, so I'm a bit surprised to see it holding together.
Good Morning....Nothing to add to the analysis this am on the Blog....Looks like sheer will rule this one...She's trying but it's not looking good right now...Trying to get dressed with nowhere to go...
1006. IKE
I think they need to label it 93L.
Good morning all

Heavy rain here on Grand Cayman this morning with some T&L. Pressure 1012.8 and steady which is just a little below normal and not at all unusual.

The blob to our S has not improved in organization overnight and none of the available data points to any development in the short term.

June systems starting in that area typically take 3 or more days to develop, if they do at all. Coupled with the trough that is producing shear in the area this looks to be a rain maker but no current threat of anything more.

Once the trough lifts out there may be a chance.
1008. Buhdog
Looks like the trough is breaking free from the blob...we should know soon huh?
The 1012.8 pressure reading was an hr ago. Now up to 1014.5 and rising rapidly
Quoting kmanislander:
The 1012.8 pressure reading was an hr ago. Now up to 1014.5 and rising rapidly
Meaning ?
Local TV met here in Tampa does not believe we will see development out of these thunderstorms anytime soon. Says that wind shear is way to strong. Pressures are not lowering and there is no sign of a llc.
as the sun gets higher in the sky it may very well zap this convection and it will have to form all over again

good to hear yer getting some rain kman
Quoting IKE:
I think they need to label it 93L.


Agreed.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Meaning ?


1014 mb is normal sea level pressure. When a tropical system is forming in your general area you expect the pressure to fall, not rise.
Link

blusterous morning in Grand Cayman.
Hi KOTG

The rain is certainly welcome. First real rain of the year on my side of the island, other than the odd shower.

Sorry the controls seems to be temporarily off for the Downtown webcam.
well now looks like 91E is on its way on being the 1st name storm all so if you look at the navy site it looks like it has a eye
hopefully thats all it will be just some welcome rains friend
1017. stormpetrol 12:44 PM GMT on June 08, 2009

Hope you are enjoying the weather today !.

Nice change.
Latest QuikScat


Quoting kmanislander:


1014 mb is normal sea level pressure. When a tropical system is forming in your general area you expect the pressure to fall, not rise.


I dont think anyone is really saying a tropical cyclone is forming at this instant, but its just an interesting area of disturbed weather.

heres your 91E image
Quoting Tazmanian:
well now looks like 91E is on its way on being the 1st name storm all so if you look at the navy site it looks like it has a eye


No eye yet taz but definitely looks good. About time the EPAC gets a storm. Link
91E has a eye nic one too

Quoting kmanislander:
1017. stormpetrol 12:44 PM GMT on June 08, 2009

Hope you are enjoying the weather today !.

Nice change.


It's ben so hot & dry lately the change is most welcomed.Hope you have a nice day as well.
1027. IKE
Looks like the Cayman Islands are being clouded over.
Quoting extreme236:


I dont think anyone is really saying a tropical cyclone is forming at this instant, but its just an interesting area of disturbed weather.


It certainly is interesting, particularly as it is the first "blob" in that area this year as far as I recall. My point about the pressure was simply to underscore that all we appear to having going on at the moment is heavy thunderstorms typical for this time of year.

Of course, given the distance away from us I would expect that surface pressures in the immediate vicinity of the convective mass to be lower but not appreciably so.

Anyway, time to head to the office. I will check in later to see if the day time heating takes a toll on it.
1029. ricderr
and the first eye of the season has been spotted on doc masters blog.....all is right with the world :-)
BP 1014 and holding here in Cayman Brac. Light drizzle, some T&L in the distance to the SE.

oops....... not so distant. ziiiiiiiing!
Wierd how they initiated invest 91E, it only shows up on the Navy site and they have not run any models on it. Guess they only want the satellite info from NRL.
Quoting ricderr:
and the first eye of the season has been spotted on doc masters blog.....all is right with the world :-)
but its not a pin hole eye ric
lol
Quoting IKE:
Looks like the Cayman Islands are being clouded over.


Confirmed, but the rain has eased off now in my area and only high cloud around. No doubt the showers will come and go. Speaking of go, I'm out !!

Have a nice day.
the QS this morning is showing no signs a surface circulation,there is a mid level circulation
catch ya later kman have a good day
iam off to work as well
be back around noon
Quoting kmanislander:


Confirmed, but the rain has eased off now in my area and only high cloud around. No doubt the showers will come and go. Speaking of go, I'm out !!

Have a nice day.
Still a decent rain going on in East End. Hasn't let up yet and winds about 25 mph.
That would be scary if there was a bunch of thunderstorms around that "eye"!
Quoting kmanislander:


It certainly is interesting, particularly as it is the first "blob" in that area this year as far as I recall. My point about the pressure was simply to underscore that all we appear to having going on at the moment is heavy thunderstorms typical for this time of year.

Of course, given the distance away from us I would expect that surface pressures in the immediate vicinity of the convective mass to be lower but not appreciably so.

Anyway, time to head to the office. I will check in later to see if the day time heating takes a toll on it.


This is a good point.
Quoting Tazmanian:
91E has a eye nic one too



And I'm assuming your joking about this lol
looking forword for this week ENSO
Quoting extreme236:


And I'm assuming your joking about this lol



lol
no T # ran on it yet too
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON JUN 08 2009




E OF 110W...
NORTHERLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER
ANTICYCLONE NOTED ABOVE IS PRODUCING DEEP LAYERED DRY SINKING
AIR ACROSS SRN MEXICO/ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A DEFORMATION ZONE
S OF EL SALVADOR IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM COSTA RICA
TO HONDURAS. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO FLARE OVER THIS AREA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ASSOCIATED DIVERGENCE ALOFT IS
CONTINUING TO ENHANCE A WIDE AREA OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR
THE COAST OF NICARAGUA IN THE CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS SLOWLY
LIFT THE ITCZ NWD INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...AND DEVELOPS A BROAD AND ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
OVER COSTA RICA AND NE INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE WILL
DRIFT NWD THROUGH WED. THIS REPRESENTS A VERY WET PATTERN FOR
THE REGION E OF 93W AS DEPICTED IN THE GFS QPF FORECASTS.

Different view of recent QuikScat pass, shows weak, weak (Did I say weak) partial cyclonic flow just north of Panama.


Click on image to view original size in a new window



1046. P451
Reading the blog it would seem the general consensus is:

* Too much dry air plowing southward from the gulf.
* Too much shear.
* The same conditions that have helped create it are the same conditions that are likely to prevent actual development.
* System has not yet broken off from the trough.
* This time of year it takes 72 hours or more of persistent convection to develop a tropical system from a blob.
* Weak cyclonic flow that is not really associated with the heavy thunderstorms.
* System likely to dissipate or just remain a rainmaker unless the trough pulls out quicker than expected.
* If something were to develop it would be Thursday and beyond.

.....resume blob watching! It was an intense little sucker late yesterday though. You'd fear that in the right environment.
1047. P451
StormW it is good to see you have decided to continue to provide us with your analysis this season.
1048. NEwxguy
Thanks,Storm
Models have now been run on 91E, it should show up now on other sites other than NRL.
I think at some point this system will move into the gulf and give plenty of rain to the gulf coast just where.
1054. NEwxguy
Wish we could get rid of that low in canada,that keeps the weather patterns in the US out of sync. Not your typical June weather pattern.Effects are felt all the way down to the Gulf
1055. IKE
Water Vapor....

Quoting IKE:
Water Vapor....

looks good, think they should label it 93-L, Good morning all!!
1057. IKE
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
900 am EDT Monday Jun 8 2009


Synopsis...
a weak trough of low pressure lingering off the Georgia coast
today will gradually dissipate. A Lee-side trough will develop
over the midlands Tuesday and persist through Friday. A weak cold
front will approach from the north this weekend.
Quoting IKE:
Water Vapor....

Looks like it is trying to pull itself together this morning. What does it look like to you ?
Winds approaching TD status, still waiting for a LLC.
1060. Crawls
The local weather information in the Southern Louisiana area has stated, "Due to the El Nino and water temp 2 to 3 deg. below normal", the Central Gulf Coast can anticpate a "break" this year.

Do you agree with this?
1061. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like it is trying to pull itself together this morning. What does it look like to you ?


It does look more symmetrical right now on water vapor.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like it is trying to pull itself together this morning. What does it look like to you ?
looks like a big bubble of convection with no LLC imo, I do believe though we should have an invest soon, imo.
Quoting Crawls:
The local weather information in the Southern Louisiana area has stated, "Due to the El Nino and water temp 2 to 3 deg. below normal", the Central Gulf Coast can anticpate a "break" this year.

Do you agree with this?


Strongly disagree. 2004 was an El Nino year and so was 1992. 2004 had late season cold fronts as well.


The Great Poof 09' refuses to POOF.
Quoting IKE:


It does look more symmetrical right now on water vapor.
i agree with you there, Ike
1066. MahFL
How many times do we need the TWO posted in full ? sheesh.
the models for 91E have it intensifying into a cat 2 in 3 days!!!
Quoting MahFL:
How many times do we need the TWO posted in full ? sheesh.
what?
Quoting IKE:


It does look more symmetrical right now on water vapor.


850 VORT from cimms is increasing in the area. Still rather low but on the increase.
Atlantic Floater 1 is over our AOI in the caribbean and its labeled "TEST"
Quoting DestinJeff:
man, if systems could be willed into existence then we'd have over 20 named storms every year.

waiting for the color-enhanced NHC shot to really make it look imminent...


LOL
Quoting canesrule1:
Atlantic Floater 1 is over our AOI in the caribbean and its labeled "TEST"
, why is it labeled test and not invest?


This is why the AOI has been able to maintain a large area of cold cloudtops in the face of the shear. The amount of precipitable water in the SW Carribean jumps off the charts in the last 24 hours of this loop.
1077. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
man, if systems could be willed into existence then we'd have over 20 named storms every year.

waiting for the color-enhanced NHC shot to really make it look imminent...


1078. IKE
LOL...DestinJeff didn't wait long....LMAO!
1080. IKE
Quoting SavannahStorm:


This is why the AOI has been able to maintain a large area of cold cloudtops in the face of the shear. The amount precipitable water in the SW Carribean jumps off the charts in the last 24 hours of this loop.


And it's soon to have the wave.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


850 VORT from cimms is increasing in the area. Still rather low but on the increase.
Meaning ?
1082. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
waning...



WU Blog comebacks.....

***It's DMIN.

***Look at the updated frame.

***Give it time.

***Are you RIP-ing it?

***vort has increased.
Where is this thing supposed to head into this week, whether something or not?
I guess after a few more years on here I might begin to understand half of what is going on(I hope)
1086. Daveg
Quoting weatherman4189:
I think at some point this system will move into the gulf and give plenty of rain to the gulf coast just where.


I sure hope so, have it come into Central Texas as a weak tropical system and dump a ton of rain. We are at the highest drought level you can be at...and it's getting worse.
1087. K8eCane
Morning Ike

Good to see ya on here cuz i'm curious about carribean wave....

trust your judgement
NOAA put the blob up on their floater SATT site as a "test"......Must be checking out their satellite allignments for the upcoming season...
1090. IKE
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
Where is this thing supposed to head into this week, whether something or not?


According to the latest tropical weather discussion...

"THIS FEATURE WILL
DRIFT NWD THROUGH WED."....that's north.
1091. fire635
Regardless of development... what are the chances of this blob dumping rain on the west coast of florida? Im thinking pretty good, no?
pressure in puerto cabezas, Nicaragua is 29.92 and rising.
#1077: The Caribbean's on fire!
Somebody grab a bucket...
Doc Masters gives it less than a 30% chance of ...
(this is a quiz)
The blob has relocated to the SE.
Quoting Buhdog:
Looks like the trough is breaking free from the blob...we should know soon huh?


I think the only reason right now there is a blob is because of the trough,its whats causing the wx in that area.....not a surface low
1097. K8eCane
Quoting DestinJeff:


looks like a puddle of water drying up on a hot sidewalk



say what? It looks like a puddle of gasoline that someone threw a lit match on to me
1099. IKE
Kingston,JA. forecast for today....

"Thunderstorm. High: 87 °F . Wind ESE 40 mph . Chance of precipitation 70% (water equivalent of 0.46 in). Heat Index: 91 °F".....WTH?


Right now....

Kingston, JM (Airport)
Updated: 57 min 42 sec ago
Light Rain
79 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 12 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Steady)
Visibility: -
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 2200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2400 ft
Scattered Clouds 3600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft
Quoting DestinJeff:


hope you have him on speed-dial, because this Caribbean pre-blob 93L is about to blow (if only in the hearts and minds of many a blogger)
what??? blow in convection right???
color enhanced=center fold. alittle precip down there. a couple days ago i remember a long range model refusing to develop it yet not moving it much either.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Meaning ?


Energy / Cyclonic turning in the lower levels that was not present yesterday. Vorticity / Energy in the lower atmosphere is what spawns surface lows.
Quoting IKE:
Kingston,JA. forecast for today....

"Thunderstorm. High: 87 °F . Wind ESE 40 mph . Chance of precipitation 70% (water equivalent of 0.46 in). Heat Index: 91 °F".....WTH?


Right now....

Kingston, JM (Airport)
Updated: 57 min 42 sec ago
Light Rain
79 °F
Light Rain
Humidity: 78%
Dew Point: 72 °F
Wind: 12 mph from the ESE
Pressure: 29.92 in (Steady)
Visibility: -
UV: 4 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 2200 ft
Mostly Cloudy 2400 ft
Scattered Clouds 3600 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 30 ft
holy shi* thats TS force, wait till we have an LLC, then we got TS Ana.
new blog
Be back later this PM; the Blob is looking like it's on it's last leg right about now..Well, we always have the "future" model runs to look at for a few weeks....Lol
Quoting DestinJeff:


this link may show better...Link
convection is diminishing rapidly, dont think invest just yet.
New blog.
still to much shear in the area,my guess for the first named TC is june 22,around the 120-168hr period shear over the west carib and GOM should be much lower and the chances of a disturbance in the area w/be rising,IMO
Shear is about 30 kts and is not changed over the past 24 hours.

1113. Crawls
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Strongly disagree. 2004 was an El Nino year and so was 1992. 2004 had late season cold fronts as well.



Thanks
1114. boyzNme
Quoting StormW:
Greetings again,

I just got an email from Barometer Bob. I send him copies of my updates as well.

He wants to have me on as a call in guest sometime when we have the good chance of a developing system.

Gotta call and work out the details though.



Congrats StormW! Be sure and let us know when so we can tune in.
Convection always does this during the day you know that very well because of the Durinal cycles. This always happens with weak systems.
Quoting canesrule1:
holy shi* thats TS force, wait till we have an LLC, then we got TS Ana.

Well I'm in kingston and not much happening
Looks like GFS has Ana in the next 36-48 hours