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Western Caribbean disturbance soaking the Yucatan; record October heat in the U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:28 PM GMT on October 09, 2007

A large low pressure system (94L) over the Western Caribbean continues to be a threat to develop into a tropical depression. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a well-defined surface circulation, with top winds of 30 mph. Satellite loops show this surface circulation is centered less than 100 miles off the Mexican coast near Chetumal. Concentrated thunderstorm activity is mostly absent near the center of circulation, but Cancun radar shows heavy rain showers in bands removed from the center moving ashore over the Yucatan. Wind shear remains below 10 knots, but given the very large amount of atmosphere 94L is trying to spin up, it may not have time to form into a tropical depression before the center moves ashore. The center should move ashore in the Yucatan between Chetumal and Cozumel later tonight or Wednesday. All hurricane hunter flights into 94L have been canceled.

Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, but a slow motion to the west or northwest is expected for the next 1-3 days, which will keep the storm over the Yucatan. Heavy rains may cause flooding problems in Belize, Mexico's Yucatan, and northeast Guatemala over the next five days. Some models, such as the GFDL, predict that 94L will perform a counter-clockwise loop over the Yucatan and re-emerge into the Western Caribbean 3-4 days from now. Another round of drenching rains might then ensue over Belize, Guatemala, and Mexico's Yucatan as the storm re-intensifies. It is also possible 94L could emerge into the Gulf of Mexico or Pacific Ocean, and re-intensify in those locations.

There is a strong trough of low pressure forecast to swing across the U.S. this week, which could turn 94L northwards into Western Cuba, the Florida Keys, or Southwest Florida. The HWRF is the only of our reliable computer models forecasting such a turn, and I don't expect it to happen.

Record heat, record cold
Unprecedented heat cooked the eastern half of the U.S. during the first week of October--but record cold temperatures affected some regions of the West, as well. On Sunday October 7, and Monday October 8, hundreds of daily high temperature records were set, and many stations recorded their hottest October temperature ever (or their highest temperature so late in the year). Among these hottest ever October records:

Bluefield, VA 88
Beckley, WV 86
Memphis, TN 95
New York City, NY (Kennedy Airport) 90
South Bend, IN 89
Fort Wayne, IN 89
Indianapolis, IN 91
Jackson, KY 88
London, KY 92
Detroit, MI 90
Alpena, MI 90
Saginaw, MI 90

The heat brought an early end to the Chicago Marathon on Sunday, which was halted after the 88-degree heat sent 49 runners to the hospital. Emergency vehicles made 300 calls along the race course.


Figure 1. Departure of maximum temperature from average for Monday, October 7. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

Temperatures have averaged over 30 degrees above normal in some regions of the country the past week (Figure 1). On the other side of the country, though, record daily low temperatures have been recorded at a few locations in Arizona and Utah this week. The jet stream is to blame for the record heat and record cold--a sharp kink in the jet has put a persistent trough of low pressure over the Western U.S. and a ridge of high pressure over the Eastern U.S. Beginning today, this kink is expected to straighten out some, resulting in far fewer temperature extremes across the country.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I agree the season is over in the Atlantic breed, but not in our local water. ie. GOM, Carrib.
Is anybody else having a hard time seeing the circulation pattern on 94L?
Lived in Florida way to long to say it is over. One must not live in the Gulf coast area to make a statement like that on Oct. 10th. Wow!
1004. Nashda
Good Morning, Question, what do you guys think of the blob next to the Lesser Antilles??
ok twice not my comment is showing up..lol
I will try yet again..lol...Goood morning Everyone...Ike I am so happy that the cold fronts are comming as I can't bear to run another day in the heat and humidity...oh here I go..post comment.lol
One needs to also remember that Wilma was an October storm. And lets not forget Michelle, which was a Cat 4 in November that hit Cuba with 140 Mph Winds.
984. JFV 3:18 AM PDT on October 10, 2007
Guys your thoughts on 94l this morning. Any one of you guyplease. I would greatly appreciate


94L is overe land and no longer has a ch



000
ABNT20 KNHC 100859
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT WED OCT 10 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS DRIFTING
WESTWARD...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR OVER THE PENINSULADURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY. DUE TO THE SLOW MOTION OF THIS LOW...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN




PENINSULA...BELIZE...AND GUATEMALA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


back to sleep
Tampa: Well said. Lived here all my life. Grew up in Tampa and live in Bradenton (by the skyway) We've seen too many late season storms that do a lot of damage here on our W coast. Actually this it the time of year that it picks up for us due to the stalled fronts etc. GO BUCS!!
Our broad area of low pressure is now being enhanced by southwesterlies from the pacific and the normal easterlies of the western Atlantic. This very broad and large monsoon gyre has two convergent maxima...in the bay of campeche and near Jamaica with the intervening main circulation over the yucatan. The area near SW Coast of Mexico has a circulation per surface obs and furthermore, this area sits under a well-define anticyclone. Not much development expected as this moves ashore. But the one near Jamaica...a surface low could form at its base.

Morning all :~)

Any one remember the name of the hurricane tracking software and service that runs about 3000$? I always forget the name of that thing.
there's a hurricane tracking service that runs $3000? Good lord!..lol
1009. weathers4me 12:01 PM GMT on October 10, 2007

That is very true. On the W. coast of florida is now our highest risk.
1011. StormJunkie 12:05 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Morning all :~)

Any one remember the name of the hurricane tracking software and service that runs about 3000$? I always forget the name of that thing.

CMC....lol
1004. Nashda 7:44 AM AST on October 10, 2007 Hide this comment.
Good Morning, Question, what do you guys think of the blob next to the Lesser Antilles??


A typical October tropical wave. The one further east looks more amplified.
Any one remember the name of the hurricane tracking software and service that runs about 3000$? I always forget the name of that thing.

$3000?! - Thats an arm, leg, head and everything.
1015. Weather456 12:08 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
1004. Nashda 7:44 AM AST on October 10, 2007 Hide this comment.
Good Morning, Question, what do you guys think of the blob next to the Lesser Antilles??

A typical October tropical wave. The one further east looks more amplified.

Its a convergence of trade winds.
I do think South of Cuba is getting very, very interesting.
There is a pretty good one put out by FEMA called Hurrevac, but you have to be in Emergency Management to get it. It is Free to emergency Management type people. http://www.fema.gov/plan/prevent/nhp/hurrevac.shtm
lol ag and 456. Yea, it is really cool stuff though. Meant for city and local officials as well as large corporations. Really has a ton of amazing information on it. If SW pops in he will remind me of the name. Need to check out the website once we figure out where it is...

I need to book mark it this time.
Morn'n all. Still quiet on the western front eh?
Its a convergence of trade winds.

The ITCZ and a tropical wave

If i cud remember clearly is DR. S. Lyons that said a convergence of the trade winds but fail to mentioned the trp wave.
good morning

On Monday I said that once 94L went ashore it might open the door for development of another low near Jamaica by tomorrow

It now looks as if that may be starting to happen
1024. aquak9
I can stand outside and point for free! who needs $3000 software?
Just kidding, I think StormW has it? if you are on his email list, I think he sends graphic links sometimes...
1022. Weather456 12:13 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Its a convergence of trade winds.

The ITCZ and a tropical wave

If i cud remember clearly is DR. S. Lyons that said a convergence of the trade winds but failed to mentioned the trp wave.

You are correct. There does seem to be a wave behind tho.
1026. aquak9
For $5, I'll get the ladder and crawl up on the roof and point!
1026. aquak9 12:16 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
For $5, I'll get the ladder and crawl up on the roof and point!

Hey no Porn is allowed on this site....lmao
shear is only 5 to 10 knots ,there is high pressure overhead and lots of warm water.

Once again conditions are very conducive for development but it remains to be seen whether the pattern we have been seeing of systems not developing despite being in the environment for it continues.
1029. Nashda
Thanks 456, Then my Avatar fits just perfect, I'll be getting a LOT of rain. When I do I'll make sure to send the rain over to people not getting any, OK!
1030. beell
Morning again
Lap 3? j/k
Working in Austin today-under intense scrutiny
Will be tuff just to lurk.
Good day to all you good and brave folks.
After while, Aligator(s)
Found it. Really cool stuff though!
1032. aquak9
Uhm...I meant, like, pointing at the skies...we were all joking a few months back, when they were talking about the possible failure of QuikScat, that we'd all get on our roofs w/binoculars.

I guess I need a little more coffee to keep up w/ya'll.... :)
see u guys later
thanks 4 the link SJ
1035. pcola
Wow SJ, that is really cool!
1036. beell
See ya SJ
)
1031. StormJunkie 12:20 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Found it. Really cool stuff though!

SJ-you could buy me that for Christmas......lol
I'll split it with you TS...lol
1038. StormJunkie 12:30 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
I'll split it with you TS...lol

We could a direct line feed......lol
SJ we are only about 80 miles apart......lol
3d winds using hurritrak
Tampa, your not in Tampa?
SJ-that blob due west of cuba it looks like is starting a cyclonic spin. Have you looked at this morning.
1042. StormJunkie 12:37 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
Tampa, your not in Tampa?

yep..Westchase area of Tampa...if you know.
SJ- i thought you lived in Orlando
There is still a chance that something could develop out in the Atlantic before the Atlantic season could be considered completly over. Taz, 94L still does have a chance in my view around 5 AM this morning it looked better then ever even though it was over land.....
Have not looked yet TS, will check it out.

No, I am up in SC. Charleston area.
SJ ive been a member of PC weather products for about 2 years now.It truly the best hurricane tracking software in the market.
1050. NEwxguy
anything that does form in the Atlantic generally gets swept out to sea by all the fronts that come off the east coast.
Morning! Nice to see a another quiet day in the tropics. I hope it stays this way. Not much to worry about with 94L and anything that forms for that matter. Conditions in the Gulf look to be bad for any tropical system.
Wow 23, forking over the big bucks huh!
Good Morning Folks....Agree with all of the comments that the "season" is starting to reach it's end this year with limited prospects...Sure, we may get another tropical storm from a remnant later this month, but, with the start of decent cold fronts pushing down over the next few days, and a more fall-like pattern starting to emerge, it seems less likely that we will see a major storm threaten......This does not diminish in any way the fact that it has been a very interesting season, with great coversations on the Blog, in terms of the high patterns, and Felix & Dean going straight "accross"....Goes to show that seasons/mother nature is so unpredictable (like the "shear rules" season last year)when so many were predicting, before this season started, that Florida and the Gulf would be at ground sero this season.........This why hurricane forecasting is so interesting and challenging...One never really knows what will happen in any given season, or, with any given storm......Just my thoughts this morning..........WW
NE, Agreed but theres a chance in the far western Atlantic like off the east coast of the United States that things could try to spin up..
Fall??
1057. NEwxguy
CA,I agree things can spin up offshore,but bermuda is at highest risk this time of year.
1058. IKE
Here's fall in the Florida panhandle....

"Thursday Night
Mostly clear and cool. Lows 45 to 50. Light winds. "
Weathhermanwannabe, You've said it your seld mother nature is unpredicatable there for we could still easily see a major/intense hurricane form out of the carribean. In fact, the predictions still call for at least one more major hurricane and at least 4 more named storms....I wouldnt call the season off to quickly. We still have close to 2 months left..
23 what do you think we should be monitoring today thank you in advance?
1061. NEwxguy
Here in New England we're watching tomorrow night for a pretty big gale center winding up of the delmarva,should be interesting.
Being this season is over what's the take for next season? Will it be an active one? Will the CONUS get hit with a major?
Sounds nice Ike, if you are getting that cool then certainly we will feel the same up here!!! Can't wait!
Almost over 911. Not quite yet.

And as for 08, way, way, way to early to speculate. Just enjoy the winter!
1065. IKE
Charleston,SC for........

"Friday Night
Clear. Lows in the upper 40s."
1066. NEwxguy
lol,predictions for 08?we're still into predicting for the end of 07
1059. CaneAddict 8:53 AM EDT on October 10, 2007

Yeah, anything could happen....So will Dr. Gray be correct?....I agree that we will not know the answer until the "offical" end on Nov 30th...
Some of you are extremely ignorant, Knowing that we had the strongest system in the Atlantic basin form in late October...Some of you want to say the season is over? The carribean is still ripe for development and will most likely stay that way untill mid november. I cant stand how some bloggers are ignorant enough to say the seasons over and nothing will develop.
I will enjoy winter!! Can't wait for the snow skiing trips to Snowshoe, WV.
1054. StormW 12:50 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
1049. hurricane23 8:47 AM EDT on October 10, 2007
SJ ive been a member of PC weather products for about 2 years now.It truly the best hurricane tracking software in the market.


Adrian...I agree...but man, I'd have to sell my car in order to have it! LOL!!

Good morning my friend!

Whats up SW?

Interesting little flare up to the south 1054. StormW 12:50 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
1049. hurricane23 8:47 AM EDT on October 10, 2007
SJ ive been a member of PC weather products for about 2 years now.It truly the best hurricane tracking software in the market.


Adrian...I agree...but man, I'd have to sell my car in order to have it! LOL!!

Good morning my friend!

Whats up SW??

Interesting litte flare up to the south of jamaica this morning...

I'll see if i can make some close up windfield maps with my hurrtrak software on a couple of storms later today.
But...As far as next season is concerned it will most likely be worst then this system with a considerable amount of additional systems this one because by next season La ninia will be in full-force.
Eyewall i went to Snowshoe last year and it was awesome the only thing was that it wasn't cold enough so a lot of runs were closed but it was awesome anyways
1073. NEwxguy
the sad part is,even with a prediction of a busy season next year,people are not going to heed the warnings as much,since we have had two fairly quiet seasons in a row.
How much heat do you think the NHC and other experts will take for being wrong 2 years in a row?Is the "high cycle" over?Seems to me we are back to normal hurricane seasons.Now if we can only survive another tourist season.
Do people blog here during winter?
This season is not over yet. Stop writing it off so soon or we may get complacent this year. LOL
1068. CaneAddict 8:57 AM EDT on October 10, 2007
Some of you are extremely ignorant

.....Actually, I was just making a personal observation that I thought that the season was winding down (Just like JP will come on later and say that he think's that it will be a late season with the El Nina pattern)....Different opinions (which is what the Blog is about or any open forum for that matter)does not mean that any particular comment or opinion, or guess for that matter, is ignornant..........
I agree the season might not be over, but the season for the U.S. is over. No worries for the CONUS.
What is the latest a hurricane struck the U.S.?
1078. Eyewall911 1:09 PM GMT on October 10, 2007
I agree the season might not be over, but the season for the U.S. is over. No worries for the CONUS

Tell me your kidding......Apparently you havent lived in Florida long to say the season is over on OCT. 10th..WOW!
I hope your crystal ball is right.
El Nina...lol :~)


Some of you are extremely ignorant

CA, this is not 05 so please, drop the comparison. If this is like most every other season I have seen in my 35 years, then the chances for development are starting to drop off. Shear is going up SSTs will start to drop and it is becoming more and more likely that we will not see a CONUS land falling system the remainder of the year. It is also becoming more unlikely that we will see a major anywhere in the basin. Just what history tells us. Not to mention that we are finally starting to get some pretty significant fronts moving through. When you have it dropping in to the mid to upper 40s in N Fla then that says something.

That said, anything is possible and there is always a chance that something does pop up. Just seems to be getting less and less likely.
Good post SJ could not have said it better!!
This does not look like an end to the Hurricane season to me!
Link
So, does anyone know when the latest U.S. was struck by a cane?
Dr M has a new blog up
I love posting this blog though :)
Blog is closed because of Shear
Hi Stormjunkie :)