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Western Caribbean disturbance moving over the Yucatan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:01 PM GMT on October 04, 2008

Heavy thunderstorm activity in association with a broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean remains disorganized today. Visible satellite loops show a modest area of heavy thunderstorms, with no sign of organization or a surface circulation. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no signs of a surface circulation, either. Wind shear is moderate, in the 10-15 knot range.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of the Western Caribbean. Image credit: NOAA.

The disturbance is drifting westward, and should move over northern Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula today before it can develop into a tropical depression. These areas can expect heavy rains of 2-4 inches today through Sunday from the disturbance. NHC is currently giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression.

Elsewhere in the tropics, the NOGAPS model is forecasting the possible formation of a tropical depression off the coast of Nicaragua on Thursday, while the GFS model thinks something might develop off the coast of Africa Thursday. It's a little late to be getting an African storms developing, so I doubt the GFS forecast. However, we'll need to watch the Western Caribbean over the coming week.

Links to follow
Wundermap for the Western Caribbean


Hurricane Ike relief efforts
When a major hurricane hits, relief efforts are always confused and don't reach many areas with great needs. Thus, a group of wunderground bloggers mobilized the day after Ike hit to help out. Their goal was to provide immediate help where traditional aid efforts were coming short, with a focus on providing equipment for people with disabilities and a full spectrum of relief supplies to smaller communities often neglected. Traditional, professional relief efforts are weighed down by bureaucracy and cannot respond as nimbly as smaller, grass-roots relief efforts can. I believe our dollars have been well-spent by the relief effort organized by our own Patrap, Presslord, and Stormjunkie, under the banner of Portlight Strategies, Inc. I encourage you to donate to the cause, or the traditional charity organization of your choice.

Here's a breakdown of how much money has been donated, and how much spent. Figures are rounded to the nearest $100. More details can be found on StormJunkie's blog:

Total money donated: $31,200 (about 400 donors)
Total money spent so far: $10,350
Total money in the portlight.org checking account: $21,000
--$9,000 in escrow for legal defense
--$12,000 available for immediate relief operations
Total money in the original Paypal account set up by Patrap: $1000
Total money in the new Paypal account set up by Presslord: $250

Here's how the $10350 has been spent:

WalMart - $2000 - supplies
Costco - $1000 - supplies
Patrick Pearson (Patrap) - $1000 (fuel, rental costs for a truck)
Truck from Charleston - $1500 - fuel
Florida supply truck - $2100 - escort, credentialing, fuel, vehicle repair, lodging
Crew food,lodging, transport home - $1000
Truck rental, gas for truck from Atlanta - $1750

The biggest coup for the effort came when portlight arranged to get about $150,000 worth of medical equipment donated to the cause. Rob Ingham (AKA Rainman32) and Roger Knight (AKA NLimbo) took a rented truck to Atlanta, grabbed the gear, and delivered it to Houston. In the shipment:

Four Gaylord boxes medical supplies
-Soft casts
-various catheter kits
-catheter bags
-oxygen tubing kits
-other misc. medical supplies
13 hospital bed mattresses and pressure pads
2 Gaylord boxes of sanitized walkers (20 per box)
4 Gaylord boxes of unsanitized walkers (20 per box)
2 pallets with two electric wheelchairs each (4)
100 pairs of crutches
30 bedside commodes sanitized
6 gerry chairs

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Ding .. Ding.. Ding..

You May begin :
when I clicked on Kingzfan blog...it says that he is banned

why are his posts still here?
Whats a hadley cell?
I just got here i just read the last 20 comments
Quoting futuremet:
when I clicked on Kingzfan blog...it says that he is banned

why are his posts still here?

i got banned likeduring fay a while ago.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Ding .. Ding.. Ding..

You May begin :


good one, seriously, name one thing i said. i would love to hear it.
The blog seems to be a battlefield,lol, goodbye all gona get off for a while be back around 11!
Quoting Drakoen:


They MJO is supposed to help them maintain and sustain convection with the upward vertical motion... Perhaps the marginally favorable shear is the cause...


Good observation dude. Your quite fluent in this field,a ren't you. Good for you man. Hey Sammy!
510. IKE
Quoting futuremet:
when I clicked on Kingzfan blog...it says that he is banned

why are his posts still here?


Different SN....now Quoting kingzfan104:
Quoting hurricanealley:
Whats a hadley cell?


I had a tutorial on the MJO, and I partly explained how the hadley cell worked.

ask if you have any questions

Air converges(or any place that is heated more than anywhere else during the year) at the equator, there it rises due to the instability and condenses at higher altitudes. When the air reaches the apex altitude it is dry, and will begin to diverge and move toward both sides of the equator. When it reaches near 30 degrees north or south, it will sink creating a stable air mass. This is why the primary high pressure systems such as the Bermuda high, and the Azores high are located near subtropical regions. Further, if you look at a global water vapor imagery, you will notice that that most of the time the air near the subtropical regions in both hemispheres are drier than anywhere else. Now the Madden Julian oscillation enhances the lower level convergence at the equatorial trough, and allow the rising air to rise even further in to the atmosphere. As a result, instability at the equatorial trough will be proportional with the stability of near 30 degrees north. To give you a more vivid example of this, imagine a robust squall line, the stronger the updraft, the stronger the downdraft would be. So yes, subtropical anticyclones would grow stronger. Now when a tropical cyclone is present, the sinking air from the anticyclone will move toward the low pressure center in an attempt to fill it up. Just imagine water flowing toward a draining low in a bathtub, you’ll notice water will flow from areas of the greatest quantity of water to the lowest (the hole). Now as the sinking from the anticyclone nears the tropical cyclone, it will be forced to rise , and it will condense at higher altitudes. This is lower level convergence. Now when the air reaches apex altitude, it will diverge. The potency of upper level divergence is usually proportional to the lower level convergence. So technically, an adjacent anticyclone provide better lower level convergence which in turns provide great upper level divergence. The air will then sink toward the areas of higher pressure again, and the process restarts. This why mets always say air flow from high pressure to low pressure. Now, a stronger anticyclone means more air will flow toward the low pressure center.
There are no TV stations in the Keys, and anybody who lived in Key west would know Capt. Tony's legend. I've lived in the Keys as a live-aboard in Boot Key Harbor. Do you know where that Is?
Quoting FLdewey:
Tonight on... to catch a troll.
Whoa.......just got on and looks like the trolls are definitely out and return of JFV.
I feel the Google search for Keys information burning through the 'net....
Quoting panamasteve:
I feel the Google search for Keys information burning through the 'net....
yep......grew up down there.
517. eddye
why you talkin about me
511. thanks
if it looks like a troll
acts like a troll
smells like a troll
guess what it must be a troll
we now have TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT
Forget about JFV! Kill your brain cells watching this starting at 9 EDT on the Sci Fi Channel :) Link
Lost my home in Georges--a 36' Morgan Out-Island.
I have an idea for raising money...
every time someone says "troll" they have to donate $1

OKKKKKK, anything up in the Yuc channel? still going poof.
Drama around here reminds me of The Boy Who Cried Wolf.......
525. JRRP
panamasteve.....those are roomy vessels....sorry about the loss...
Yikes
I did not mean to put an end to the discussions..

RE:511. futuremet
I followed most of that, a bit confused though. Is the hadley cell the area where this convergence and divergence happens? Is it a physical area?

anybody got a nice picture of the Yucatan they want to share - maybe w/ a yellow circle for interest?
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Yikes
I did not mean to put an end to the discussions..

RE:511. futuremet
I followed most of that, a bit confused though. Is the hadley cell the area where this convergence and divergence happens? Is it a physical area?



the equator is warmer than everywhere ele on earth, thus air pressure is lower there. As a result, air from both sides of the earth will flow and converge toward at the equator.
This is the link to the NRL.If there's an Invest it will be here.
If not then there's nothing to worry about.

How simple can it be?
Like this surfmom?

Quoting Tazmanian:
we now have TROPICAL CYCLONE NORBERT
Where??
531 - God forgive me....Oh yeah...I mean it should stay little and inconsequential, just give me and my friends one last Indian summer day w/waves.

Too Soon the wet suit will come out
534. clowe
Does anyone know where I can find a map of historical Atlantic storm tracks for this point in the season/month of October, something along those lines?

Thanks.
I'll be back tomorrow

bye
Some people like and want their beer, others want waves
Good evening! Here is eastern S. FL it has been raining all day & gotten much cooler...is this because of a cold front? TIA =)
A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHERN
BELIZE. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WILL
OCCUR WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA.
HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL ORGANIZATION IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY IF THE LOW EMERGES OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE.


So, chances of depression more likely once it moves into BOC?
RE:534. clowe

Not by month,but this site it sort of fun for seeing past storm tracks
what's going on? everyone i don't have on ignore appears to be responding to posts of folks I do. be back later.
542. JRRP
Quoting cycloone:
Where??

Link
Quoting KeyWestMan:
WSVN7, NBC6 and CBS4.
Those are all from South East Florida too..
Any harder Questions?
543KEHCharleston -nice map, I have to remember to be careful for what I wish for. period. Better a Cold Front --
Press .. are you still lurking?

Could you give us a hint as to the color of the dress?
Press

Also will you set a time for the ...(dare I say it) for the unveiling?

what's up y'all?
I'm out-nite all
550. clowe
Thanks to all who posted figures or links for archived storm tracks, particularly for October.

I'm *just* connected back up to the information world after Ike, and I feel like telling Invest 96 "this basin's not big enough for the both of us..."
Been raining buckets all day.

Tropics bless Miami





Night surfmom
Quoting clowe:
Thanks to all who posted figures or links for archived storm tracks, particularly for October.

I'm *just* connected back up to the information world after Ike, and I feel like telling Invest 96 "this basin's not big enough for the both of us..."


Yea, glad you are re-connected. Those who are a WHOLE lot smarter than me seem to be saying that this disturbance is going no where - to close to land.

I am out as well.

G'night folks
Key west trivia:
__________ square

Whose cats were threatened off being kicked out of Key West?

Year of secession from the US of the conch republic

Year of the fire that burned down 5 businesses and was suspected as arson

Retired famous channel 10 newscaster that was rumoured to have been Janet Reno's lover for years
MisterPerfect - You are not kidding. Raining like crazy all day... Got soaked at the UM - FSU football game.

And it is STILL RAINING...
I'm down for a game of keys trivia. My family first came down to the Keys in 1957 on vacation when my grandfather moved to Miami. And I have lived here year long for the last 20 years. The keys do kinda have a news channel, channel 5 one of the shows is "Reeling in the Keys" they also have other tourist info on the channel. Before that it was an automated weather voice with a photo slide show background.
954: I know some of your answers.

Hemmingways 6 toed cats.

and the newscaster is on the tip of tongue and I can't quite remeber. Anne something I think.
it's been raining here in broward since about halftime of the game (530 or so) and it looks like it's not going to stop anytime soon
Woah, quite a wave!!! east atlantic
Dakster:
ding ding ding..
Anne -- think of a chess piece
Complete Blog update

Including:
New Invest ... 96L
Present Satellite picture ... 96L
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Key west trivia:
__________ square

Whose cats were threatened off being kicked out of Key West?

Year of secession from the US of the conch republic

Year of the fire that burned down 5 businesses and was suspected as arson

Retired famous channel 10 newscaster that was rumoured to have been Janet Reno's lover for years


Square Grouper
Thankfully the Hemingway cats can stay
1982, Thats why you should not set up a road block
hey what what, whats the name of that cuban reataurant down there that has the bug pig sculpture in front of it
Quoting Dakster:
MisterPerfect - You are not kidding. Raining like crazy all day... Got soaked at the UM - FSU football game.

And it is STILL RAINING...


Went to dinner @ Charlies crab tonight. Had to drive through a foot of water on Oakland Park Blvd.
sorry I meant big pig....
Quoting 954FtLCane:
hey what what, whats the name of that cuban reataurant down there that has the bug pig sculpture in front of it


Mason De Pepe's?
I was actually looking at the 95 fire
mallory square
hemingway
1982
ann bishop

Just got back from dolphin's stadium. Now I can say I have seen an NFL playing field be entirely flooded. Weird updrafts an Cyclonic movements too. A lot of rain... Thought we'd have to build an Ark.
Who financed research on the Keys Marsh Rabbit?

What is the name of the big "affordable housing" developer?

Who are the members of the gang of three?

What are insurence inspections?

Quoting KNAStorms92:
Just got back from dolphin's stadium. Now I can say I have seen an NFL playing field be entirely flooded. Weird updrafts an Cyclonic movements too. A lot of rain... Thought we'd have to build an Ark.


Sounds like the Dolphins/Steelers game in 04 when Jeanne was coming through. What a mess!
navy
Spehar, Nelson and McCoy
Check out KeyWestMan's blog:

Banned
This user has been banned from the Wunder Blogs.

I wonder what his next incarnation will be. Well, he can change his screen name, but he can't seem to change his personality or way of expressing himself. ROFLMAO
Hugh Heffner from playboy helped with the rabbit research

Ed Swift is the developer

I’m glad the gang is gone coming this November

We in the Keys actually have to pay $300 to have insurance company inspectors come and make sure our house complies for flood that is if you have a mortgage and there for have to have insurance. Key West is exempt from this. Dirty politics is everywhere. Funny thing you can have a freezer down stairs but it has to be outside not in the garage.
I forgot to add nothing below the flood plain is covered by insurance anyway.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
Key west trivia:
__________ square

Whose cats were threatened off being kicked out of Key West?

Year of secession from the US of the conch republic

Year of the fire that burned down 5 businesses and was suspected as arson

Retired famous channel 10 newscaster that was rumoured to have been Janet Reno's lover for years


I don't live there but could answer some.. like Ann Bishop
There are some funny things like:

What are the contents of Content Keys?

Why is West Summerland east of Summerland?

Key Louis AKA Monkey Island had Reese monkeys on it until Hurricane Georges came through. There was reports of some on Cudjoe after the storm.

geees, I don't even need flood insurance since I'm not in a flood zone.
Live up in Oakland park area of broward here.
press has had ample time to get loaded I wonder if the infamous photo has been taken yet...?
we are in desperate need of some exciting weather here... even an invest with td potential would work
Quoting 954FtLCane:
we are in desperate need of some exciting weather here... even an invest with td potential would work
there are people in certain areas that would disagree...
Quoting 954FtLCane:
geees, I don't even need flood insurance since I'm not in a flood zone.
Live up in Oakland park area of broward here.


Must be nice ;)
Quoting tkeith:
there are people in certain areas that would disagree...


It's nice when it is quite in the tropics. Everyone is safe as can be expected and the blog is light hearted with a spice of foolish drama. No need to start anything. Time for me to hit the sheets till next time.
I'm out. Know nothing about key west except that it is a great place to fish and drink!!

Good night all.
Quoting whatwhat1:


It's nice when it is quite in the tropics. Everyone is safe as can be expected and the blog is light hearted with a spice of foolish drama. No need to start anything. Time for me to hit the sheets till next time.
I agree just supersticious i guess...lol
Quoting whatwhat1:
There are some funny things like:

What are the contents of Content Keys?

Why is West Summerland east of Summerland?

Key Louis AKA Monkey Island had Reese monkeys on it until Hurricane Georges came through. There was reports of some on Cudjoe after the storm.



Sorry. One more question:

Why do you park on a driveway and drive on a parkway? (not sure of the answer)

Good night
I'm on board with IKE...no more storms this season...(I have a wooden desk I'm knocking on)...lol
Press probably passed out half way through gettin his makeup put on...oh well at least he'll get a good nights sleep...lol
any one know how much more rain expected in pb county
class='blogquote'>Quoting clowe:
Does anyone know where I can find a map of historical Atlantic storm tracks for this point in the season/month of October, something along those lines?

Thanks.


Here is one place.
http://www.stormpulse.com/storm-archive
Quoting tkeith:
Press probably passed out half way through gettin his makeup put on...oh well at least he'll get a good nights sleep...lol


I'm trying not to picture it
re 588: shouldn't rain much more tonight, local news in Broward said possibly 1-3 more inches but the radar is looking a lot cleaner for both Broward and PB now
Quoting Orcasystems:


I'm trying not to picture it
not sure i'm ready either Orca...lol
Orca, passed out drunk pics dont count do they? I didn't read the fine print...
Quoting tkeith:
Orca, passed out drunk pics dont count do they? I didn't read the fine print...

Actually.. as I remember.. is he not suppose to have the picture taken in front of a well known landmark in town, during the day?
Finally down (0.01')below flood stage after Fay. Woo Hoo! Still don't have room for another one, though.
thanks 954, good to know cuz we have serious localized flooding in western pb county
Quoting Orcasystems:

Actually.. as I remember.. is he not suppose to have the picture taken in front of a well known landmark in town, during the day?
I do remember that statement now that you mention it.
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
Finally down (0.01')below flood stage after Fay. Woo Hoo! Still don't have room for another one, though.


I don't think that really counts.. does it?
One shower ought to do it
Quoting tkeith:
I do remember that statement now that you mention it.


Now add a vicious hangover to the mix :) Tonight just might be a "Dress rehearsal"
thats would be nasty.. take the pictures tonight.. then get told they are not the right ones :)
Does anybody see the big wave, or is everyone blind?!?!?!?!?
does anyone see the wave?
602. Enola
A little snow possible tonight in the Rocky Mountains, had some light drizzle today north of Denver (of course some might say it was more like a sneeze than actual precipitation). Local news is predicting snow in Denver perhaps next week.

BTW, the aspens are beautiful right now. :)
Complete Update
Mirror Site
New Invest ... 96L
Present Satellite picture ... 96L
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean, BOC & Atlantic flaring up (Hour 60)
CMC ... NOLA (Hour 90)
CMC ... Caribbean (Hour 156)
CMC ... Atlantic Part 2 (Hour 192)
CMC ... PR, Atlantic part 3 (Hour 228)
Quoting TheTracker08:
does anyone see the wave?

Ummm where?
Quoting TheTracker08:
Does anybody see the big wave, or is everyone blind?!?!?!?!?


What big wave? I see the ITCZ flaring up but no wave.
606. JRRP
Quoting TheTracker08:
does anyone see the wave?

what wave ?
Updated Images

I've updated the images with all the new people, and changed the web site to allow for easier viewing, and larger pics.

Let me know what you think, always looking for good ideas.
By the way - it has been pouring, again, for the last hour.

I've had enough - I don't like wet feet, and the dogs refuse to go out in the pouring rain!
hi zoo..hearing rumbling for a distance. rains coming soon too
Gotta love October weather in SE Florida. We get these fronts that stall to the south and back up, usually throughout the month. Here in the Palm Beach Gardens area, it has been steadily raining since 5am this morning, there hasn't been 1 moment that the rain hasn't stopped totally and its raining EVERYWHERE, not just on one street and not the other as South Florida has been frequently stereotyped as lol.
Quoting zoomiami:
By the way - it has been pouring, again, for the last hour.

I've had enough - I don't like wet feet, and the dogs refuse to go out in the pouring rain!

Gee.. I feel really sorry for someone who lives in sunny south Florida.. land of the mighty orange.. complaining about your what now.. a week of rain?

orca's halo is on the fritz
Is it possible for a storm to form from the itcz?
Quoting foggymyst:
orca's halo is on the fritz


I'm off duty.. hehe its the Zoo crew keeping watch over the herd :)
Hi Foggy - yes thunder & lightening down here too. I thought it had cleared out on the radar a few hours ago, guess it came back.

It is kind of funny how they move through to the south, and then "back up" over us. Not bad enough we get it one way, get the rebounds too!
We'll all giggle when Orca goes to Mexico in December, and they get an unusual tropical system that stalls out for 10 days.....
weird blog today, was lurking and wow.
Quoting zoomiami:
We'll all giggle when Orca goes to Mexico in December, and they get an unusual tropical system that stalls out for 10 days.....


Now that is just mean..
mind you.. Neverpanic is in Cancun tomorrow :) thats a bit funny

Yes, too funny -- first we had the "catch a predator", then we had the schizo KeyWestMan.
lol..or when it's so bitterly cold!!
i was on the blog when kwm made his debut, i knew something was up with that person.
Speaking of which - someone here said it couldn't be that person -- might just have been wrong
so what happened with KWM innocent or guilty?
I think he was guilty - either he was JFV, or he was a troll impersonating JFV.

Quoting zoomiami:
I think he was guilty - either he was JFV, or he was a troll impersonating JFV.



I know who said it first :)
LOL! sounded like him!!!
ugh..*rolling eyes*
Orca - can you add a line for the updated images in your updates tomorrow? You are so much better at posting then I am. I tend to get caught up reading


Quoting foggymyst:
weird blog today, was lurking and wow.
strange to say the least
Radar shows its raining alot in S. Fl. here in Orlando we have been bone dry!!
Quoting foggymyst:
ugh..*rolling eyes*

ROFLMAO, don't do that.. you'll see all those clouds pouring rain on you
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
strange to say the least


"TO Catch A Troll" lol
You mean like this?
Zoomiami's Site - Newly Updated
Its Awesome - lots of great information - wunderground site with the images, etc - directions on how to use Google earth.
that would work, thank you
Night all.
Yep - me too - getting late here.

Night
Quoting zoomiami:
Yep - me too - getting late here.

Night


Me three
But still lurking as I watch the game, and play poker
638. IMA

Is it safe to come out?
Site looks awesome, Zoo/Orca! (I can't keep straight who does what, but know y'all are a great team!)

Can someone please explain to me what this thing is that keeps getting a mention on this blog, this thing called "rain"??
Quoting IMA:

Is it safe to come out?
Site looks awesome, Zoo/Orca! (I can't keep straight who does what, but know y'all are a great team!)

Can someone please explain to me what this thing is that keeps getting a mention on this blog, this thing called "rain"??


very cute -- I will be glad to send it your way - have two leaks in the roof, wet feet, and too many frogs (actually buffo? toads, ick)
640. JLPR
wow the ITCZ is going nuts lol

=O

very impressive if this keeps up and convection persist for a day or two we may get a low there =S
Quoting IMA:

Is it safe to come out?
Site looks awesome, Zoo/Orca! (I can't keep straight who does what, but know y'all are a great team!)

Can someone please explain to me what this thing is that keeps getting a mention on this blog, this thing called "rain"??


Zoo does it all.. I just use her data on my pictures, same thing anyone else can do

I have the rain here also.. and 80K winds later
642. IMA
We're getting so desperate here, it's really sad. That's how we ended up with longhorn steer in the yard, he just came across the river. Granted, it was amusing, but it was a hell of a shock to find him at the front door! I swear, I need to start walkin' around with a camera around my neck. lol We have plenty of frogs, hard to miss 'em at the front door. They're coming up to get the water by the plants, more there than in the creek. lol
Im out!! Good Night all!
Quoting IMA:
We're getting so desperate here, it's really sad. That's how we ended up with longhorn steer in the yard, he just came across the river. Granted, it was amusing, but it was a hell of a shock to find him at the front door! I swear, I need to start walkin' around with a camera around my neck. lol We have plenty of frogs, hard to miss 'em at the front door. They're coming up to get the water by the plants, more there than in the creek. lol


Hmmmm
Steak and frog legs :)
Fresh to your door.. sorry, couldn't resist
Quoting Orcasystems:

Gee.. I feel really sorry for someone who lives in sunny south Florida.. land of the mighty orange.. complaining about your what now.. a week of rain?





Sunny south Florida? Obviously you don't know much about weather down here, aside from the dry season, it rains all the time, and it rains HARD as heck
Orca,
Do you ever sleep? lol
9 1/2 to liftoff and things dont look to be inproving.
Anyway, last post til we get back.
Promised the bride I'd leave the Laptop at home.
Anything starts to brew....I'll know before you, nothing like being on the front line.
See everyone in a week.
Quoting NeverPanic:
Orca,
Do you ever sleep? lol
9 1/2 to liftoff and things dont look to be inproving.
Anyway, last post til we get back.
Promised the bride I'd leave the Laptop at home.
Anything starts to brew....I'll know before you, nothing like being on the front line.
See everyone in a week.




I can save you looking.. its raining :)
Stay for a minute.. going to do one thing quick.. need two minutes
Your on
650. IMA
LOL @ steak and frogs -- hubby asked why I didn't bring steak home (I was at the neighbor's house when the steer appeared) because he knew I had the guns out -- I told him I only had the .38 on me and really didn't know if a .357 would take out a steer anyway - anyone know?? I think in TX that possession is 9/10 of the law so next time that steer is on neighbor's property it's mine, right zoo? I have SPOA for neighbor's affairs! LOL
Quoting NeverPanic:
Your on




I have your nick in Cancun
652. IMA
649. NeverPanicHave a great trip! You changed your pic?

I'm so out of touch, have been in main so very little ever since Ike hit - feel so out-of-it, need a brain transplant lol
Your nick beat you to cancun
Quoting IMA:
LOL @ steak and frogs -- hubby asked why I didn't bring steak home (I was at the neighbor's house when the steer appeared) because he knew I had the guns out -- I told him I only had the .38 on me and really didn't know if a .357 would take out a steer anyway - anyone know?? I think in TX that possession is 9/10 of the law so next time that steer is on neighbor's property it's mine, right zoo? I have SPOA for neighbor's affairs! LOL




my .277 can take a steer so I would assume that being a yes, but I think using a pistol on a steer wouldn't be the greates choice lol
655. IMA
Sleep? Maybe whoever explains rain to me can also explain sleep. lol Only going to get worse next week, hubby finally "shippin' out" to Houston - almost a month post-Ike. I said, "They can have 'em!"(Love ya, honey! - he reads here, just doesn't blab like his mouthy wifey ;)
Quoting Jedkins01:




my .277 can take a steer so I would assume that being a yes, but I think using a pistol on a steer wouldn't be the greates choice lol


I have gone wild cow hunting with a .41 it works
657. IMA
65, 20084. Jedkins01
I am a hell of a shot w/a pistol but don't even know how to load a shotgun, I'd probably put it in backwards lol

Volunteering at the gun club this week so maybe they'll learn me Ha!
658. IMA
Cow hunting?
659. IMA
653. Orcasystems too cool
Quoting IMA:
Cow hunting?


Many moons ago on the west coast of vancouver Island there used to be a dutch settlement. They had livestock.. when they left.. they left some cows, which ran wild.. there is actually wild cows still there. Its called Estevan point

Quoting IMA:
65, 20084. Jedkins01
I am a hell of a shot w/a pistol but don't even know how to load a shotgun, I'd probably put it in backwards lol

Volunteering at the gun club this week so maybe they'll learn me Ha!



Never been into pistols as much, always been a rifle man lol, I do carry pistols, and train with them though, mainly as a backup in case I cant use the rifle.

Quoting Orcasystems:


Many moons ago on the west coast of vancouver Island there used to be a dutch settlement. They had livestock.. when they left.. they left some cows, which ran wild.. there is actually wild cows still there. Its called Estevan point




who the hell would want to go cow hunting?

LOL seriously I am really laughing right now, a lot!
Thx Orca,
As long as she keeps moving and doesnt stall may get a sunny day in after all.
1 out of 7 aint bad...lol

Got your request earlier and will make sure I check them all out.

664. IMA
That's wild (no pun intended). See, I love trivia like that.
Quoting NeverPanic:
Thx Orca,
As long as she keeps moving and doesnt stall may get a sunny day in after all.
1 out of 7 aint bad...lol

Got your request earlier and will make sure I check them all out.


Thanks.. wife is looking forward to what you find.. she also wants to know more about where you are staying, when you get back
666. IMA
I laughed out loud at it, too. Let me tell ya, one day, the bull from across the creek was literally outside my front door. I was runnin' out at full speed but luckily there are 4 steps down to our door and he'd not taken them. If I'd have had a shot gun, he'd have been in my freezer the next day. I have 5 dogs and I am sick of the neighbor not taking care of his fences. If someone's dogs get on his property, he doesn't try to catch them and return them, he immediately shoots and kills them. I would do the same to his bull. I've saved I don't know how many of his goats that have gotten caught in his poorly maintained fences. I'm not going to lose my life to a freakin' bull (and want steaks) LOL
667. IMA
Oh,no. I've ranted 2 nights in a row. LOL Long story with the guy across the creek and with me and bulls LOL
Quoting Jedkins01:



who the hell would want to go cow hunting?

LOL seriously I am really laughing right now, a lot!


Simple.. I was a commercial fisherman, a longtime ago. When the weather got bad, we ran into the lee side of Estevan pt, which has an anchorage. We could be there for days. So we would take the pistols and go hunting. You do not need a tag to shot wild cows.. they are not regulated..hell very few people know they are even there.. Beef is Beef :)
669. IMA
Can you taste a difference? May seem like a stupid question but you can with some other wild game. I loved wild boar! I have had several different types of "game" and there was little I didn't like. I don't hunt, but I eat! lol Not often a popular view with a lot of my animal rescue friends - I just have to calmly explain that I pick my battles - there's a difference between animal rescue and animal welfare and you can't fight 'em all!
Quoting Orcasystems:


Simple.. I was a commercial fisherman, a longtime ago. When the weather got bad, we ran into the lee side of Estevan pt, which has an anchorage. We could be there for days. So we would take the pistols and go hunting. You do not need a tag to shot wild cows.. they are not regulated..hell very few people know they are even there.. Beef is Beef :)




makes sense enough to me... lol


It sounded absolutely ridiculous, but now that you explained your reason, makes more sense :)
671. IMA
...and I can see wanting to go cow hunting, by the way. LOL I think I'm dyin' to shoot something now that I've taken up the hobby. 4 young raccoons were lucky they didn't attack the cat tonight! LOL I could never have shot them, so cute! They did scare the hell outta me, though! Thought the steer was comin' back for me.

Actually, very honestly, that steer this week got me thinking again about all the livestock affected by Ike & Gustav, got me very melancholy :(
Quoting IMA:
Can you taste a difference? May seem like a stupid question but you can with some other wild game. I loved wild boar! I have had several different types of "game" and there was little I didn't like. I don't hunt, but I eat! lol Not often a popular view with a lot of my animal rescue friends - I just have to calmly explain that I pick my battles - there's a difference between animal rescue and animal welfare and you can't fight 'em all!


Not exactly grain feed and fat... more like beefalo, leaner then regular
Quoting Jedkins01:




makes sense enough to me... lol


It sounded absolutely ridiculous, but now that you explained your reason, makes more sense :)


See, I just seem nuts.. that doesn't mean I am :)
Tell the she'll get that and more, pics included.
Off to bed, gotta be up in about 5 hrs.
Night all.
Quoting NeverPanic:
Tell the she'll get that and more, pics included.
Off to bed, gotta be up in about 5 hrs.
Night all.


Have a great time.. hope it clears up.
Dodgers won

Ok, I am off.. need my sleep.. later all
IMA, try not to shoot anything or anyone tonight :)
677. IMA
Hey, I openly admit & accept -- I lost it 'long time ago
678. IMA
I didn't even watch, put it on in the 1st and decided it would just be too sad. lol

I'm just reading right now and Orca I have never heard of wild cows..
680. IMA
lol! hagn!
681. BtnTx
Wild Cows - Absolutely Amazing. Its info like this that keeps me coming back to this blog! Night All
Looks like a possibility for some nice wave production



Wave Maker
Morning all.

Laura's finished with us now and is making it to the south of England.

Nothing like rain and a bit of wind. Stronger than the usual, but not much to write home about, thankfully.
684. Enola
.
.
686. KBH
things are quiet for now,will that large mass in mid atlantic overcome the shear and develop into something?,..if not a system, looks a whole week of rain
Quoting KBH:
things are quiet for now,will that large mass in mid atlantic overcome the shear and develop into something?,..if not a system, looks a whole week of rain


Just wait till next week. All the models are saying that we'll get a tropical system in that time.
good morning gang, I hope everyone is well this am!
Good Morning indianrivguy

Army beat Tulane
Navy beat Air Force
Quoting TampaMishy:
I'm just reading right now and Orca I have never heard of wild cows..


Good Morning All

Wild Cows, Cow Hunting? I once shot a bull on my dads farm, does that count? No you don't want to eat a bull, maybee if you were starving, but surley nnot to just put on the grill!
Quoting MisterJohnny:
Good Morning indianrivguy

Army beat Tulane
Navy beat Air Force


yes ideed.. 6th time in a row.. can't stand them purty fly boys anyway, I even root for Army against them.. lessee, we have you fella's now 4 times in a row right? Your last senior class NEVER tasted victory over Navy.. your next one won't either.. Go Navy BEAT Army... again..

hmmm, I am pleased that the frontal boundary has lifted north and is giving Dade.. read "Joe Robbie stadium" a break for todays game.
What happened to the weather blog? I seem to have mistakenly come upon a cow / football discussion.
Once it emerges into the BOC, can this disturbance become a depression?
Good morning

Quikscat has a well defined surface low at 9N 33W in the midst of that heavy convection. Although it is getting late for a CV system to make it all the way across the surface low is far enough S to have a chance to do just that.

The CIMSS shear map was not available this morning so I am unable to see what conditions aloft are like.

Something to watch over the next 24 hrs to see whether it develops.
Off for the morning but will check in later
Quoting dayton:
What happened to the weather blog? I seem to have mistakenly come upon a cow / football discussion.


What weather?
697. IKE
Quoting Autistic2:


What weather?


LOL.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED INLAND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND COULD EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN


I think for the US of A the season is 99% over with.
Quoting IKE:


LOL.....

I think for the US of A the season is 99% over with.


I hope so. Had to live in a tent for a few days, and now in a small travel trailer.

Hired the "IKE Remodeling Company" to install a skylight. Did the job in seconds, even added a bonus one in the deal, but left a huge mess behind.

Hopefully we'll be rebuilt for next season. Amazing the power of these storms 90 miles inland.
I think for the US of A the season is 99% over with....Ike thats seems like a sound prediction to me. you think were gonna have a colder winter than last year? I'm in NOLA about the same LAT. as you.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

Quikscat has a well defined surface low at 9N 33W in the midst of that heavy convection. Although it is getting late for a CV system to make it all the way across the surface low is far enough S to have a chance to do just that.

The CIMSS shear map was not available this morning so I am unable to see what conditions aloft are like.

Something to watch over the next 24 hrs to see whether it develops.


I don't see any well-defined surface low there and this morning's quicksat just showed an area where the winds are converging.

We've got cows!



Nice Orca... making me hungry for a steak this early in the morning.
that ULL south of Haiti has a heck of a nice rotation...any chance of that making it to the surface and developing?
Good morning all.

RE: Shooting cows, flying cows... who's turn is it to be riding herd on the herd?

RE:702. 19N81W - ULL making it to the surface
What causes a ULL to drop to the surface? TIA
Oh MY GOODNESS -- coffee sputters all over the place --- Cows a la tornado?? is that real??? first I roared, ....now I feeling bad for the poor thing...curdled milk for sure
Good morning everyone.......at the request of some i now added links for live sports scoring on my blog......LOL.......it was requested...i i love it......lol
TampaSpin -- what your morning opinion regarding yesterdays circled area..... any surf potential for me there?
So did anyone watch the Tornado movie last night? Was it as.... good.... as.... Atomic Twister? (trying to keep a straight face) ;-)
Lots of fresh air in this living room this morning, feels like the PESTilence has been removed --kwm couldn't even score as a troll
Holy Cow,and good morning everyone. Must be slow in the tropics with all of the Cow talk last night.
706. surfmom 9:18 AM EDT on October 05, 2008
TampaSpin -- what your morning opinion regarding yesterdays circled area..... any surf potential for me there?


Yep in about 3 days you might get the board out.....
decent breeze here in SWFL, cloudy and overcast --going out for the 10 miler --just love the cooler temps....when I'm running, and not having to get out the door by 5:30AM. This did seem like a cooler summer -- last year felt more brutal.

Although, cooler also means cooler water temps (80degrees) in the gomex by me, and I can't say I enjoy that too much. Happiest w/water temp at 86, under 80 --got start putting garments on.
Sorry i gotta run ......be back late this evenning....GO RAYS AND BUCS!
Quoting TampaSpin:
706. surfmom 9:18 AM EDT on October 05, 2008
TampaSpin -- what your morning opinion regarding yesterdays circled area..... any surf potential for me there?


Yep in about 3 days you might get the board out.....


YOU made my day -- just what I was hoping to hear!!! dancing up and down....with glee (let's just keep this here)Now I got JUICE for the run...... back in approx 7:30 -8:00 min per mile x10 miles, + pitstop for gator + cool down @ home LOL.......Good Morning to you ALL! I'm a happy Chicka today....(remember KWM/JFV said I was a good egg.....god....)
ull rarely make it to the surface john hope said on his updates it can spin and spin for days and sure enough they do. sometimes a low pressure at the surface pops up on east side of ull where the ull can ventilate a devolping low pressure. leftovers is just a amatuer hobbiest with absolutely no brains hopefully a pro pops in explains it further.
Quoting leftovers:
ull rarely make it to the surface john hope said on his updates it can spin and spin for days and sure enough they do. sometimes a low pressure at the surface pops up on east side of ull where the ull can ventilate a devolping low pressure. leftovers is just a amatuer hobbiest with absolutely no brains hopefully a pro pops in explains it further.

Thanks - much appreciated
Quoting 19N81W:
that ULL south of Haiti has a heck of a nice rotation...any chance of that making it to the surface and developing?


Same thing I was wondering yesterday, wouldn't surprise me if it did just that.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
New Invest ... 96L
Present Satellite picture ... 96L
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... NGOM/NOLA (Hour 66 - 84)
CMC ... BOC (Hour 156)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 180)
CMC ... PR, Atlantic part 2 & Caribbean (Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..
Quoting TampaSpin:
Good morning everyone.......at the request of some i now added links for live sports scoring on my blog......LOL.......it was requested...i i love it......lol

I did no such thing.. I said Score..as in ONE.
717. Orcasystems 7:11 AM PDT on October 05, 2008
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
New Invest ... 96L
Present Satellite picture ... 96L
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... NGOM/NOLA (Hour 66 - 84)
CMC ... BOC (Hour 156)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 180)
CMC ... PR, Atlantic part 2 & Caribbean (Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..



96L is gone so you need too update that
Quoting Tazmanian:
717. Orcasystems 7:11 AM PDT on October 05, 2008
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
New Invest ... 96L
Present Satellite picture ... 96L
Area of Interest ... Eastern Caribbean
Present Satellite picture Caribbean Sea
Present Satellite picture BOC/Caribbean/GOM
Present Satellite picture Atlantic Train
Present Satellite picture Cape Verde
CMC ... Caribbean & BOC flaring up (Hour 36)
CMC ... NGOM/NOLA (Hour 66 - 84)
CMC ... BOC (Hour 156)
CMC ... Atlantic (Hour 180)
CMC ... PR, Atlantic part 2 & Caribbean (Hour 240)
CMC 00Z..



96L is gone so you need too update that


It may be gone where your looking.. but the models are still running it on the spaghetti plots.

I am also wondering if it might be the one the CMC picks up again in 66 hours in the NGOM
Their Final Calls
By MONICA RHOR, AP
GALVESTON, Texas (Oct. 4) - The final hours brought the awful realization to victims of Hurricane Ike that they had waited too long. This storm wasn't like the others, the ones that left nothing worse than a harrowing tale to tell.

George Helmond, a hardy Galveston salt, watched the water rise and told a buddy: I was born on this island and I'll die on this island.
Gail Ettenger, a free spirit who adopted the Bolivar Peninsula as her home 15 years ago, told a friend in a last phone call: I really messed up this time.

Within hours, the old salt and the free spirit were gone as the powerful Category 2 hurricane wracked the Texas Gulf Coast on Sept. 13, flattening houses, obliterating entire towns and claiming at least 33 lives.

The dead — as young as 4, as old as 79 — included lifelong Galvestonians firmly rooted on the island and transplants drawn by the quiet of coastal living.
Seven people drowned in a storm surge that moved in earlier and with more ferocity than expected. Nine others died in the grimy, sweaty aftermath, when lack of power and medicine exacted its toll. Eleven people were poisoned by carbon monoxide or killed in fires from the generators they used in their own attempts to survive.

Hundreds of people remain missing three weeks after Ike's assault on Texas. Local and city officials are no longer keeping their own count of missing residents, and the estimate varies wildly from one agency to another.
723. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
I think for the US of A the season is 99% over with....Ike thats seems like a sound prediction to me. you think were gonna have a colder winter than last year? I'm in NOLA about the same LAT. as you.


Don't know about winter...I'll take some cold-air to kill these ants in my yard.
Quoting presslord:


And good cheerful morning to you also, aren't you a little ray of sunshine first thing in the morning. Hungover?
725. IKE
722...they may never find some...they may have wound up out-at-sea(some of them).
I find it really funny that the "experts" fail to mention the strong cold front moving on in from the PAC that will clear the gulf on Tuesday. These fronts have effects on systems just like it will with the so called invest 96...

Bottom line....96L means nothing to me...once again time to enjoy the nice fall weather.
Morning all....
728. P451
Pacific activity is high:

Wide View Infared Shot

Wide View Water Vapor


Atlantic not so much:

Wide View Infared Shot

Wide View Water Vapor



Still, for those who believe the season may be done for the US, even though shear is extremely high, things can change, and as weather always teaches us: It only takes 1 storm to give someone a really bad day. Never count it out while the season is still technically alive.
Quoting cmackla:


Bottom line....96L means nothing to me...once again time to enjoy the nice fall weather.


I am sure it means something to someone.. maybe Neverpanic who will be landing in Cancun in about 2 hours.. or maybe someone else like him who may also be considered insignificant to you.


Quoting Beachfoxx:
Morning all....


Morning BF, hows the weather
Absolutely beautiful! 73 wonderfully cool degrees, sunshine, low humidity.... I wanna go back to the beach! LOL
How's your weather Mr. Orca?
Quoting Beachfoxx:
Absolutely beautiful! 73 wonderfully cool degrees, sunshine, low humidity.... I wanna go back to the beach! LOL


About 10C here, which is 1C over the expected high today.. overcast.. drizzle, and we had a wind storm last might with gusts to 80k. Another day in paradise my as.....

Have to get in the pond today to take out all of the little branches and things from last night.

Thats 50F, and the expected high is 48F
wow, just saw Cinton and Bush in a new public service announcment for "Ike" donations, just like the one they did for Katrina...
Careful in that pond... snakes love hanging out in those backyard ponds!

Brrrr! 50F high is too low! ha! ha! ha!
Quoting Orcasystems:


About 10C here, which is 1C over the expected high today.. overcast.. drizzle, and we had a wind storm last might with gusts to 80k. Another day in paradise my as.....

Have to get in the pond today to take out all of the little branches and things from last night.

Thats 50F, and the expected high is 48F
December 5th cannot get here soon enough :)
Your the vacation resort wizz kid.. ever been to any of these?

Moon Palace Golf and Spa Puerto morelos
Excellence Riviera Cancun
Ceiba del mar spa

Those are the three I apparently decided on, or so SWMBO'ed told me.
I just received a file by email with some of the most incredible Hurricane Ike pictures I have seen so far. It is a 6Mb file. How can I share it with WU users who would be interested in seeing it. I haven't had much luck with links using that href thing.
Quoting indianrivguy:
wow, just saw Cinton and Bush in a new public service announcment for "Ike" donations, just like the one they did for Katrina...


Little late aren't they?
Orca, never vacationed in Mexico. Went once....
Quoting TropicTraveler:
I just received a file by email with some of the most incredible Hurricane Ike pictures I have seen so far. It is a 6Mb file. How can I share it with WU users who would be interested in seeing it. I haven't had much luck with links using that href thing.


Good god don't try and post it in here...
You'll kill the blog
BF, you looking for a bit of rain?

CMC ... NGOM/NOLA (Hour 66 - 84)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Little late aren't they?


maybe.. gift horse-mouth..
Quoting Orcasystems:


Good god don't try and post it in here...
You'll kill the blog

It is a ".pps" file slide show. I've seen all sorts of things that long posted with a link - didn't envision posting all the stuff on the blog itself. Just wondered how or where such a size file could be made available. Especially since one picture is a bunch of cattle being herded by cowboys up a busy street, what with all the interest in cows and such ....
BTW - on the subject of cattle, did you know that there were 20,000 cattle needing rescue because of Hurricane Ike? Many of them unbranded.
ROFLMAO, for those others who may be wondering
SWMBO'ed = She Who Must Be Obey'ed

Sometimes also known as a Wife or Significant Other. The other terms they may also be known as might be...... nope.. not going to say them. The Halo is not that shiny right now.
Quoting surfmom:


.. back in approx 7:30 -8:00 min per mile x10 miles, + pitstop for gator + cool down @ home LOL
GM surfmom
How was the run? Got mine yesterday, starting to extend that long run - thinking about Sarasota. Crew talked me into joining our team for a different kind of race. Not really a beach day on the East coast [FL radar].
Quoting TropicTraveler:

It is a ".pps" file slide show. I've seen all sorts of things that long posted with a link - didn't envision posting all the stuff on the blog itself. Just wondered how or where such a size file could be made available. Especially since one picture is a bunch of cattle being herded by cowboys up a busy street, what with all the interest in cows and such ....


someone here made a post about meeting cowboys moving 16k head to higher ground outside Houston. I wish I could help with an answer, because I surely would like to see the pics.
Quoting TropicTraveler:
I just received a file by email with some of the most incredible Hurricane Ike pictures I have seen so far. It is a 6Mb file. How can I share it with WU users who would be interested in seeing it. I haven't had much luck with links using that href thing.


Put it some place like photobucket and provide a link.
We need rain, but have only a small chance later in week.

Costa Rica?
Quoting indianrivguy:


someone here made a post about meeting cowboys moving 16k head to higher ground outside Houston. I wish I could help with an answer, because I surely would like to see the pics.
If you send me an email with your email address I can email it to you.
Quoting TropicTraveler:

It is a ".pps" file slide show. I've seen all sorts of things that long posted with a link - didn't envision posting all the stuff on the blog itself. Just wondered how or where such a size file could be made available. Especially since one picture is a bunch of cattle being herded by cowboys up a busy street, what with all the interest in cows and such ....


To post something with a link, you have to have a place to put it that is web accessible.
Go to WU mail, and mail me, I will give you my proper email addy, and put it on the website for you after I scan it for viruses. I will leave it up for a day or two, and you can post a link to it.

Where is all the tropical devolpments these models keep predicting. There was something that was supposed to devolop last weekend this weekend????? But nothing. I do think a couple of storms will still devolop but they probably wont threaten land. Now that all the stroms are done for the season what does everyone talk about in here?!?!
753. IKE
Quoting bwt1982:
Where is all the tropical devolpments these models keep predicting. There was something that was supposed to devolop last weekend this weekend????? But nothing. I do think a couple of storms will still devolop but they probably wont threaten land. Now that all the stroms are done for the season what does everyone talk about in here?!?!


Global Warming....the elections...the stock market and sports.
Snow & how cold it is up north! LOL
Quoting bwt1982:
Where is all the tropical devolpments these models keep predicting. There was something that was supposed to devolop last weekend this weekend????? But nothing. I do think a couple of storms will still devolop but they probably wont threaten land. Now that all the stroms are done for the season what does everyone talk about in here?!?!
755. IKE
Shear, up to NINETY-KNOTS, protecting the USA....

Quoting bwt1982:
Where is all the tropical devolpments these models keep predicting. There was something that was supposed to devolop last weekend this weekend????? But nothing. I do think a couple of storms will still devolop but they probably wont threaten land. Now that all the stroms are done for the season what does everyone talk about in here?!?!
Just because a model says something will develop you can't rely on it...everybody should know about predicting the future, especially with weather. Don't count on all the storms being done for the season, it is still early in October, we could still have storms (whether a model predicts it or not).
757. IKE
Until that shear abates....season over in the US of A.
Quoting bwt1982:
Where is all the tropical devolpments these models keep predicting. There was something that was supposed to devolop last weekend this weekend????? But nothing. I do think a couple of storms will still devolop but they probably wont threaten land. Now that all the stroms are done for the season what does everyone talk about in here?!?!


You know, basics.. like October is the second busiest month for Hurricanes..and how some people think its over already.. the basics :)
Hi IKE,

Love that shear! and this weather. : )
Quoting IKE:
Until that shear abates....season over in the US of A.
Quoting IKE:
Until that shear abates....season over in the US of A.


Ike, go look at the CMC, hours 66-84
Quoting bwt1982:
Now that all the stroms are done for the season what does everyone talk about in here?!?!

Cows and dresses
It seems that shear begins to subside in 72 hrs in the gom making the area mildy favorable to TC's intensification.
Quoting IKE:


Global Warming....the elections...the stock market and sports.
And who else watched the rather lame fight card last night, featuring the lamest bout of the night with Kimbo Slice ? From the women's fight they showed, does anybody know what TV show Gina Carano is from ?
morning
i am watching an area of disturbed weather in the eatl which is associated with a westward moving tropical wave. the area 9n 26w has some rotation in the mid levels. wind shear is 10 knots and good 850mb voticity. low level convergence as well as upper level divergence is good and the area looks set for some form of cyclogenesis the next few days. this could be the area that the GFS has been hinting of tropical development by thursday or friday this week. we will just have to wait and see
Quoting Orcasystems:


To post something with a link, you have to have a place to put it that is web accessible.
Go to WU mail, and mail me, I will give you my proper email addy, and put it on the website for you after I scan it for viruses. I will leave it up for a day or two, and you can post a link to it.

Thanks Orca - I tried photobucket but it's in a file rather than separate pictures. I'll email you right now.
season appears pretty much over...October can be a busy month, though not that busy for the CONUS...lots of cold fronts moving down now protecting the GOM (not to mention the sheer) the weather has been outstanding...cooler and drier than normal for October...I'll start looking at this site again in mid August....
767. KRL
Hurricane Ike's Environmental Toll on the GOM

quite an eye opener that has hardly received any media attention.

Hurricane Ike's Environmental Damage From Crude Oil & Chemicals
The GFS model shows a developing TS moving in the middle of the atlantic and a Strong high pressure system that could keep it on a more westerly track for a while.
74.4°F / 23.6°C, clear, low humidity (Charleston)
Good day for sitting out on the piazza and reading. (will leave the running to surfmom)

Nothing to note on the buoys in the Caribbean

Orca - Thanks (lol). Give SWMBO'ed my best.

I will lurk quietly on and off today.
Y'all have a great day!
Quoting presslord:
Their Final Calls
By MONICA RHOR, AP
GALVESTON, Texas (Oct. 4) - The final hours ...


Thanks, Paul
Quoting NolaLevees:
season appears pretty much over...October can be a busy month, though not that busy for the CONUS...lots of cold fronts moving down now protecting the GOM (not to mention the sheer) the weather has been outstanding...cooler and drier than normal for October...I'll start looking at this site again in mid August....


Later...
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Thanks Orca - I tried photobucket but it's in a file rather than separate pictures. I'll email you right now.

I'm usually good with computer stuff but feel like a total idiot about posting links. Felt really humiliated when tropical amanda and others of the same ilk breezily posted link after link.
What? im getting this annoying ad banner in here saying I won a 1000 dollar walmart gift card BUT only if I do X, X, X and 30 more X's.
wow, on the donation front.. the NFL Texans have generated 2.5 million towards Ike relief. Texan owner did up .5 mil, nfl 1.0 mil, Colts owner 50k.. good news.
Ya'll have a great day.... This weather is too gorgeous to be indoors.

Peace!

☮ ☮ ☮ ☮ ☮
Quoting Vortex95:
What? im getting this annoying ad banner in here saying I won a 1000 dollar walmart gift card BUT only if I do X, X, X and 30 more X's.


pay your $10 :) and join :) then no ads
what's with the meteosat-9 east atlantic? loop ends oct 2??
Quoting surfmom:
Oh MY GOODNESS -- coffee sputters all over the place --- Cows a la tornado?? is that real??? first I roared, ....now I feeling bad for the poor thing...curdled milk for sure


Got to go about 10 gage triple 0 buckshot to bring down a flying cow. Still got to be a heck of a wing shot. Those things move. One flew better part of a county in these parts when I was a kid. Farmer said milk production off for a couple of days till settled back in. All ways could tell when a storm was coming way ahead of time after that. Ol Bossy would high tail it for the barn.

Good thing tournedos of that size are rare around here.

With my dyslexia I remember wondering wether 'nedos got their name from fling cows because did know that toro meant bull in spanish.

Haven't thought about that in years.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


Got to go about 10 gage triple 0 buckshot to bring down a flying cow. Still got to be a heck of a wing shot. Those things move. One flew better part of a county in these parts when I was a kid. Farmer said milk production off for a couple of days till settled back in. All ways could tell when a storm was coming way ahead of time after that. Ol Bossy would high tail it for the barn.

Good thing tournedos of that size are rare around here.

With my dyslexia I remember wondering wether 'nedos got their name from fling cows because did know that toro meant bull in spanish.

Haven't thought about that in years.


Hmm sometimes your a strange little Camper :)
Visible looks like 97L will be at 9n 35w anytime, run loop nice rotation on visible.
Anyone think 96L will do anything?
now, this looks better...hopefully, it will stay this way...

Wow
Quoting NolaLevees:
season appears pretty much over...October can be a busy month, though not that busy for the CONUS...lots of cold fronts moving down now protecting the GOM (not to mention the sheer) the weather has been outstanding...cooler and drier than normal for October...I'll start looking at this site again in mid August....



Singing in the rain?
Quoting sporteguy03:



Singing in the rain?

Lol.
Quoting IKE:


Global Warming....the elections...the stock market and sports.


Which is your favorite Ike, lol.
Hurricane IKE Pictures in Power Point Format ... From TropicTraveler (5MB)

The link is also available on my Blog and mirror site
don't forget about the Bushmen.
Hey Orcasystems
Cow Hunting ??????
WTH???????
Never would check a fish boat for poached beef!
Quoting MissNadia:
Hey Orcasystems
Cow Hunting ??????
WTH???????
Never would check a fish boat for poached beef!


hehe check the regs.. no rule covered it. We were innocent.

Now the pistols.. different matter :) You know how we used to like to shoot at each other on the Skeena or Nass
Quoting Vortex95:
don't forget about the Bushmen.

Haha.
Quoting Orcasystems:


hehe check the regs.. no rule covered it. We were innocent.

Bet they didn't have a USDA stamp
Quoting MissNadia:

Bet they didn't have a USDA stamp

hehe we aren't in the US :P
Quoting Orcasystems:

hehe we aren't in the US :P

Why didn't the bears finish all of them?
Quoting MissNadia:

Why didn't the bears finish all of them?


Mostly coastal Black Bears on the island.. ever seen a coastal Black bear? about half the size, make that made a 1/3. Only real predator they had were cougars.
New Blog
Thanks Orca, for hosting that PP.. you rawk brother.
Old Blog?
801. KBH
Quoting cchsweatherman:

thanks cchs, I raised the query earlier as I did not see anything on noaa or ecmwf, no ciculation is also bad for the islands as that area of activity will dump lots of rains...suppose heavy rains, flooding.. is not really activity........
Quoting Vortex95:
The GFS model shows a developing TS moving in the middle of the atlantic and a Strong high pressure system that could keep it on a more westerly track for a while.
Link