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Western Caribbean disturbance less organized; Typhoon Lupit may spare Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:49 PM GMT on October 22, 2009

A broad 1009 mb low pressure area is over the Southwest Caribbean near 12N 83W, off the coast of Nicaragua. This low, in combination with an upper-level trough of low pressure, is generating some disorganized heavy thunderstorm activity over the Western Caribbean and Central America. A second 1008 mb low pressure area is over the Pacific Ocean near the coast of Costa Rica. The two lows appear to be competing with each other, with the result that the organization of the thunderstorm activity over the region is less than yesterday's. Recent satellite loops show little change in the areal coverage or intensity of the thunderstorms this morning. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L on Tuesday, but is no longer issuing model products for it. This morning's QuikSCAT pass missed the Western Caribbean, but last night's pass showed no signs of a surface circulation. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 20 knots, and there is a deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, so we still need to keep an eye on this disturbance. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. No models predict development of this system over the next seven days, but I'll continue to give a medium (30 - 50% chance) that a Western Caribbean tropical depression will form sometime in the next ten days.

NHC is also mentioning an area of disturbed weather over the Bahamas, associated with a trough of low pressure in the upper atmosphere. This disturbance is moving slowly westwards towards Florida, and is under very high wind shear of 40 knots. No development is likely due to the high shear.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of twin surface low pressure systems, on either side of Central America.

Typhoon Lupit may spare the Philippines
Typhoon Lupit continues to struggle with dry air, which has significantly disrupted the typhoon's inner core, leading to a partial collapse of the eyewall. Lupit is now a minimal Category 1 storm with 75 mph winds. Recent microwave imagery shows that the typhoon is missing a large portion of its western eyewall, and this morning's infrared satellite loop shows that the storm's heavy thunderstorm activity is rather disorganized. Even in its current weakened state, Lupit is a dangerous rain-maker, with rainfall rates exceeding twelve inches per day near its core (Figure 2).

While it is too early to be confident of this forecast, it now appears that Lupit will spare the Philippines a direct hit and a punishing deluge of 12+ inches of rain. The typhoon has slowed in reaction to a collapse of the steering currents, and most of the models are now calling for Lupit to stall just offshore, or recurve to the northeast. The very slow motion of the storm means that it will stir up large quantities of cool water from the depths that will then surround the storm, making re-intensification unlikely, and decreasing the amount of rain the storm is able to produce. The typhoon's core of heaviest rain appears likely to remain offshore, though the extreme northern portion of Luzon Island may still receive 6 - 12 inches of rain before the storm finally departs.

Storm chaser Jim Edds is in northern Luzon to document Lupit's impact, and has photos of the preparations the residents are taking.


Figure 2. Forecast rainfall for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Friday 10/23/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of twelve inches (red colors) near its core. However, this core of heavy rain will remain offshore over at least the next two days. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting MayFL:
From what I am seeing on satellite images, the area south of Jamaica is the same system. It is one broad area of low pressure so if it chooses to consolidate south of Jamaica that has always been the original forecast - for it to drift north.


Exactly
Quoting IKE:
Area SSE of Jamaica is firing up, but the entire area is moving east to east/NE.....Link
Hopefully not another Omar. Wasn't he around this time too ?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
All the updates have been saying broad area of low pressure. Maybe it is pulling together now and not so broad ? I am asking not suggesting anything because I really don't know.


I think post 498 said it well.
Quoting futuremet:


The models are not handling this system correctly; the GFS model expects wind shear to decrease to favorable conditions in the SW Caribbean to the eastern Gulf in about 48hrs. However, it keeps on weakening it due to shear despite the favorable conditions. As a result, it forecast it to be steered by the low level flow of the Bermuda high to the Gulf without a significant curve to the northeast. I personally think the ECMWF and the CMC have the right handle on this system. It is really hard right now to currently forecast the intensity of this system. We will just have to wait and see.
Thank you.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hopefully not another Omar. Wasn't he around this time too ?


lol, didn't you read Omar one year later last week.

16 October
Quoting Weather456:


lol, didnt you read Omar one year later that week.
Didn't really remember but knew he was before Paloma and it is almost a year for her. Boy, it was some weird moving storms last year.
508. Relix
Quoting Weather456:


lol, didn't you read Omar one year later last week.

16 October


I don't think that cluster of t-storms will develop at all. The ration of getting an eastward moving system is like 1 every decade or something.
I still think ex94L has at least a 50/50 chance of developing into a named system, this thing has just hung around too long.
510. IKE
Accuweather with their first update of the day....

Last Update: 22-OCT-2009 6:19pm EDT

No tropical formation or development is expected through at least Saturday. We continue to monitor satellite and surface data over two areas of concern.

The first area is just east of the Bahamas and is associated with a weak upper level system. High pressure to the northwest of this feature is preventing movement. this until this weekend. By Sunday an upper level high pressure area over Florida will move eastward and to the north of this upper level system allowing it to move west then northwest. Any surface feature that evolves out of this system will be strongly sheared and as a result development will be very difficult. However, we expect some weakly organized system to track northward along or near the Florida east coast during Monday and Tuesday of next week.

A second area of disturbed weather southeast of Nicaragua remains very disorganized and development of this feature is not expected through at least Sunday. This system will remain nearly stationary through Sunday. Then it might eventually move northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. However, at this point it's very difficult to determine whether the system will have a chance to become an organized tropical system.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski
The area near Jamaica is not the main core of this system. The reason it has been firing so much, is because it is under the area of highest upper level winds--upper level diffluence. The vorticity maximum is still in the area deep in the SW Caribbean. Once that trough splits and degenerates, all of the convection will start to consolidate at the main center.
Quoting IKE:
Area SSE of Jamaica is firing up, but the entire area is moving east to east/NE.....Link
Is it because shear is blowing the storms away from the center?
Quoting Relix:


I don't think that cluster of t-storms will develop at all. The ration of getting an eastward moving system is like 1 every decade or something.


Not sure of the relationship with 94L's development.
Quoting futuremet:
The area near Jamaica is not the main core of this system. The reason it has been firing so much, is because it is under the area of highest upper level winds--upper level diffluence. The vorticity maximum is still in the area deep in the SW Caribbean. Once that trough splits and degenerates, all of the convection will start to consolidate at the main center.

Excellent explanation.
515. xcool


516. xcool



Joe's take

The southwest Caribbean system is on the southwest side of the upper low that is helping with the initial pressure fall of the Bahama system. It is also at least partially over land. This should come out slowly northeast the next couple of days, but the complexity of the situation argues for this to sit and wait, and if it's going to be a factor in U.S. weather, it won't be until the mid and latter part of next week, when the trough over the west early in the week comes out eastward. However, folks in Florida and the Southeast should also keep one eye turned south, though because we have two systems instead of just one, the bundling of energy is slow at best with the more classic Caribbean system.

TPC has hatched both areas. I must say I am impressed with the GFS lately on the tropics. It did not go bonkers like the Euro and identified most quickly the situation in the Bahamas as far as models go.
I suspect what ever develops , if anything develops that is, will take a track similar to Michelle 2001 or Wilma 2005, jmo.( SW caribbean AOI that is)
519. xcool
firing south of Jamacia.

if those bands become nothing, other than what it can drag out of the EPAC system, what does this system have left? seems like it would be wasting its fuel the longer it does this.
Updated vort maps,

BBL.

522. IKE
Quoting mossyhead:
Is it because shear is blowing the storms away from the center?


I don't think so.

Looking at this loop, the low appears to finally be moving. Looks to be moving ENE.
523. Relix
Quoting Weather456:


Not sure of the relationship with 94L's development.


Nah, was just pointing out the eastward movement. Shouldn't last for long I guess. Of course, nature has "pwned" me this year so.. =P
525. MayFL
What is happening now is all unrelated and irrelevant since the disturbance has a minimum of 7-10 days to develop.
Quoting IKE:


I don't think so.

Looking at this loop, the low appears to finally be moving. Looks to be moving ENE.
Really Now.
Quoting MayFL:
What is happening now is all unrelated and irrelevant since the disturbance has a minimum of 7-10 days to develop.
And how long does it have to take since they are known to develop pretty quickly in the sw Caribbean ?
Quoting Orcasystems:


Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
Are you and the wife feeling any better today ?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Are you and the wife feeling any better today ?


Thanks for asking :) we are alive and kicking.. I am at work, and she is finally up and around at home.


Quoting Orcasystems:


Thanks for asking :) we are alive and kicking.. I am at work, and she is finally up and around at home.




Very nice but why is she called SWMBO?
Quoting ElConando:


Very nice but why is she called SWMBO?


Your obviously single :)
She Who Must Be Obeyed :)
Quoting Orcasystems:


Your obviously single :)
She Who Must Be Obeyed :)


I've never even heard that before, EVER none of my friends have never used it and neither have I. I can't use what i've never heard of.
Quoting IKE:


I don't think so.

Looking at this loop, the low appears to finally be moving. Looks to be moving ENE.
Afternoon Ike. Have you looked at CMC model run? If so are there any others that support the CMC. Thanks Ike
Quoting Orcasystems:


Your obviously single :)
She Who Must Be Obeyed :)
C'mon man, my wife could see stuff like that....SHHHH....j/k
Quoting ElConando:


I've never even heard that before, EVER none of my friends have never used it and neither have I. I can't use what i've never heard of.


As long as your Wife/GF/SO thinks its MUST..and you know its MIGHT.... and you learn how to say "Yes Dear", then you to can celebrate your 30th anniversary like we did the other day... ROFLMAO, both sick with the swine flu and not talking :)
Quoting eyesontheweather:
C'mon man, my wife could see stuff like that....SHHHH....j/k


Be good or I will post the true meaning of "Yes Dear", then you will really be in it :)

We should get back to the weather... by now a few people will be going nuts with the red !
538. IKE
Quoting eyesontheweather:
Afternoon Ike. Have you looked at CMC model run? If so are there any others that support the CMC. Thanks Ike


None others to that strength.

Here's the 18Z GFS.

18Z NOGAPS
Quoting IKE:


None others to that strength.

Here's the 18Z GFS.

18Z NOGAPS
GFS barely does anything with it
Quoting ElConando:


I've never even heard that before, EVER none of my friends have never used it and neither have I. I can't use what i've never heard of.
Bookmark it for future reference. LOL
541. xcool



ex94L slowly moving away from the coast.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Bookmark it for future reference. LOL


Good advice. I'm still walking.
Quoting stormpetrol:
ex94L slowly moving away from the coast.
I think things might start to happen a little faster with it now.
Quoting Grothar:


Good advice. I'm still walking.
LOL. I am one of those SWMBO too and it is best if you learn that early on.
Has anybody noticed a well established anticyclone in the BOC headig northeast?? That could be a player in the future.
Quoting reedzone:
Has anybody noticed a well established anticyclone in the BOC headig northeast?? That could be a player in the future.


What do you think it will do?
Quoting Grothar:


What do you think it will do?


I have no clue, guess we'll see what happens
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 22 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY-STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE

JUST OFF THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM... IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS PRIMARILY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS

QUESTION: Whe do you guys think things could start to happen with the area of low pressure in the SW Carib?

463
WFUS54 KLIX 222340
TORLIX
LAC109-230015-
/O.NEW.KLIX.TO.W.0060.091022T2340Z-091023T0015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
640 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2009

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW ORLEANS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL TERREBONNE PARISH IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF HOUMA...

* UNTIL 715 PM CDT

* AT 638 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 18 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF BAYOU CANE...OR 18 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOUMA...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO GRAY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT THURSDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

Cell K-6 is the Warned cell

um, on the colored circle thing, the NHC has been using the yellow for AOIs, even tho they clearly don't meet the NHC's own definition. Maybe there should be a new, AOI level color (like green, fits in with the color schemes of a lot of things) for AOIs. jmo.
553. xcool





Quoting miajrz:
um, on the colored circle thing, the NHC has been using the yellow for AOIs, even tho they clearly don't meet the NHC's own definition. Maybe there should be a new, AOI level color (like green, fits in with the color schemes of a lot of things) for AOIs. jmo.


What do you mean? these kinds of circles put on the TWO are for AOIs
Before I forget, WS/JFV said to tell everyone "hi" and a special shout out to Ike. He received his AA degree today.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


What do you mean? these kinds of circles put on the TWO are for AOIs

A few days earlier, several people were exercised that the NHC was putting up a yellow circle on 94l even as it said development wasn't expected in 48 hours.
557. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Before I forget, WS/JFV said to tell everyone "hi" and a special shout out to Ike. He received his AA degree today.


Alcoholics Anonymous? j/k
..I am powerless to move tropical system's to my door..
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Before I forget, WS/JFV said to tell everyone "hi" and a special shout out to Ike. He received his AA degree today.


good for him...I think he is much smarter than what he has himself to be on the blog.
560. IKE
Congrats to him for getting a degree.
Quoting IKE:


Alcoholics Anonymous? j/k
Not nice, lol
Quoting Weather456:


good for him...I think he is much smarter than what has himself to be on the blog.
I think so too. Seems to me he tries too hard to make people like him and ends up pushing them away. I try to have patience with him and talk to him on Facebook.
Quoting xcool:
firing south of Jamacia.

Guess I'm in for some strong weather tonight.
564. xcool
weatherwatcher12 i guess
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Before I forget, WS/JFV said to tell everyone "hi" and a special shout out to Ike. He received his AA degree today.


Isn't this the same person who said he goes to FSU and FIU? Or am I confusing him with someone else?
Quoting PcolaDan:


Isn't this the same person who said he goes to FSU and FIU? Or am I confusing him with someone else?
FIU
Quoting miajrz:

A few days earlier, several people were exercised that the NHC was putting up a yellow circle on 94l even as it said development wasn't expected in 48 hours.


they are keeping it up there to cover themselves in case; just because a circle is up there doesnt mean development will happen in 48; so that circle can be up there for days at a time like it is now.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


they are keeping it up there to cover themselves in case; just because a circle is up there doesnt mean development will happen in 48; so that circle can be up there for days at a time like it is now.

Their own definition says 48 hours. Why not give them separate, honest, cover with a separate color that says"keep an eye out?"
Quoting miajrz:

Their own definition says 48 hours. Why not give them separate, honest, cover with a separate color that says"keep an eye out?"


because they dont, who cares really?

what if they did do that and then the storm rapidly intensified?
Quoting IKE:
Congrats to him for getting a degree.
Thanks! Tell them that I appreciate they're positive feedback. I miss and love them all. They've become my extended, meteorological online family. :)This is copied from his Facebook page.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
FIU


And as weather2009 FSU I believe.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


because they dont, who cares really?

what if they did do that and then the storm rapidly intensified?
It doesn't really matter anyway cause it can say Dev not expected for next 48 hrs and next update you have a red.
I think the NHC should done with the 48 hr and color thing.
Quoting PcolaDan:


And as weather2009 FSU I believe.
IDK, saw some of his other handles but don't remember that one. Might be.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
FIU

That's an embarrassment I went to FIU and I can write a sentence and spell....ugggggggggg I should of gone to NOVA
Quoting 954FtLCane:

That's an embarrassment I went to FIU and I can write a sentence and spell....ugggggggggg I should of gone to NOVA
Shhhhhhhh !
Quoting Weather456:
I think the NHC should done with the 48 hr and color thing.


What do you think about the situation in the Caribbean now?

Something still to watch? Also what areas do you think need to watch out for possible impact from it next week?
578. xcool
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


because they dont, who cares really?

what if they did do that and then the storm rapidly intensified?


Actually, some well=respected people here who are concerned about precision in the NHC's statements debated this issue, particuarly in light of the rapid intensification of a few storms in the last year or two.
Hey All-

Anything possible with the Bahama area of interest????
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


What do you think about the situation in the Caribbean now?

Something still to watch? Also what areas do you think need to watch out for possible impact from it next week?


After looking at the feature all day I have to come to several conclusions.

1. Models have a very poor handle on the system due to the complexity of the competing lows and the terrain of Central America.

2. Despite the complexity they all show the SW Caribbean low becoming the dominate one and this has been indicated today.


3. The disturbance has basically remain unchanged today and is expected to have little change over the next day or two. There is an upper trough north of the disturbance affecting it but this is expected to be replaced by a ridge in 3 days.


4. Therefore it should be watch as the models agree that a moisture surge will head north embedded within return flow SW of the Bermuda High, affecting areas like Jamaica and the Caymans. Several inches have already fell across Central America.

5. Development is not a sure thing and it will likely be slow if it does.
Quoting Weather456:
I think the NHC should done with the 48 hr and color thing.
I don't know how to post loops but could you please look at the RGB and tell me if the circulation is pulling away from the coast. That's how it looks to me but would appreciate it if you would check it for me. Thanks.
Quoting IKE:
Accuweather with their first update of the day....

Last Update: 22-OCT-2009 6:19pm EDT

No tropical formation or development is expected through at least Saturday. We continue to monitor satellite and surface data over two areas of concern.

The first area is just east of the Bahamas and is associated with a weak upper level system. High pressure to the northwest of this feature is preventing movement. this until this weekend. By Sunday an upper level high pressure area over Florida will move eastward and to the north of this upper level system allowing it to move west then northwest. Any surface feature that evolves out of this system will be strongly sheared and as a result development will be very difficult. However, we expect some weakly organized system to track northward along or near the Florida east coast during Monday and Tuesday of next week.

A second area of disturbed weather southeast of Nicaragua remains very disorganized and development of this feature is not expected through at least Sunday. This system will remain nearly stationary through Sunday. Then it might eventually move northward into the central or eastern Gulf of Mexico next week. However, at this point it's very difficult to determine whether the system will have a chance to become an organized tropical system.

By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski


What on Earth is Joe talkin' about. The NWS has been persistent in retreating(eastward) and breaking down the ridge in the east by Thurs/Fri. A cold front is forecasted to slip down the peninsula by Sunday. All weather stations confirm this in Orlando.

So it would either have to merge(ie Bahama disturbance) with the frontal low or get skirted northward(and eventually eastward) as it tries to initially go west-northwest.
Evening everyone....

What Bahamas disturbance? Weather has been lovely here all day, except for the brief rain and sun shower we had this pm....
Quoting weatherbro:


What on Earth is Joe talkin' about. The NWS has been persistent in retreating(eastward) and breaking down the ridge in the east by Thurs/Fri. A cold front is forecasted to slip down the peninsula by Sunday. All weather stations confirm this in Orlando.

So it would either have to merge with the frontal low or get skirted northward(and eventually eastward) as it tries to initially go west-northwest.


Bastardi comitted himself to rehab yesterday,..the Lead forecaster is now in charge,,
Note the end of the Brief.


..By AccuWeather.com Expert Senior Meteorologist Dan Kottlowski
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't know how to post loops but could you please look at the RGB and tell me if the circulation is pulling away from the coast. That's how it looks to me but would appreciate it if you would check it for me. Thanks.


It appears is bit further from the coast as a wnw wind is coming in from Providencia Island
Quoting Weather456:


It appears is bit further from the coast as a wnw wind is coming in from Providencia Island
That's what I thought but wasn't sure. That would be beneficial for it, correct ?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Before I forget, WS/JFV said to tell everyone "hi" and a special shout out to Ike. He received his AA degree today.

That is not likely since we are in mid-semester everywhere right now.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
That's what I thought but wasn't sure. That would be beneficial for it, correct ?


so so

For one it would be good if it pulls away from the coast and away from the other low but at the same time, I am watching the shear just to its north.
Quoting Chicklit:

That is not likely since we are in mid-semester everywhere right now.
IDK, just going by what he said on his Facebook page.
Quoting Chicklit:

That is not likely since we are in mid-semester everywhere right now.


That kinda crossed my mind as well chicklit,..maybe its kinda like a Halloween treat?

..or trick?
Quoting Weather456:


so so

For one it would be good if it pulls away from the coast and away from the other low but at the same time, I am watching the shear just to its north.
I see what you mean. Will the shear lessen anytime soon ?
Quoting Chicklit:

That is not likely since we are in mid-semester everywhere right now.


I'm so glad someone other than me made this glaringly obvious observation...
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I see what you mean. Will the shear lessen anytime soon ?


Not until the current trough splits and ridging takes over and this is expected to occur withing 2-3 days
595. jipmg
that is a mighty fast moving cold front.. the official forecast states it wont get to FLORIDA.. you guys agree with it?
Quoting jipmg:
that is a mighty fast moving cold front.. the official forecast states it wont get to FLORIDA.. you guys agree with it?

It's forecast to be weak by the time it gets here.
597. jipmg
Quoting Chicklit:

It's forecast to be weak by the time it gets here.


In miami they are forecasting it to stall around the panhandle, and weaken. Barely affecting our winds too, maybe ESE at most.
What about the wave at 30W?
Granted it's under 30+ knots of shear now but it keeps firing convection, has lots of moisture and a lot of warm water to work with and at some point will probably get into a better environment to develop... at least for a day or two around Sun.
Any thoughts?
456,do you think the SW Caribbean area will regain invest status tommorow or by the weekend?
Any chance the tail end of Rick could spin into something in the Gulf?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
456,do you think the SW Caribbean area will regain invest status tommorow or by the weekend?


it depends how organize it gets.
Quoting sailingallover:
What about the wave at 30W?
Granted it's under 30+ knots of shear now but it keeps firing convection, has lots of moisture and a lot of warm water to work with and at some point will probably get into a better environment to develop... at least for a day or two around Sun.
Any thoughts?

It's covering a lot of territory but looks like there is a lot of shear to its west.

ShearMap
Quoting Chicklit:
Any chance the tail end of Rick could spin into something in the Gulf?


you know that's a prefrontal squall line and highly baroclinic
Quoting Weather456:


you know that's a prefrontal squall line and highly baroclinic

oh right, the prefrontal, highly baroclinic squall line. shudda known ;)
Quoting Weather456:


you know that's a prefrontal squall line and highly baroclinic


how about the odds of that line getting to Florida?
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


how about the odds of that line getting to Florida?


I don't too much about mid-latitude weather so I stand to be corrected when I say squall lines normally peak at night and weaken as they out-race the cold front.
...pretty cool story...

Link
Interesting that our local met forecasted last weekend's frontal line to retrograde to the NW on Friday. I don't think they expected to have a low pressure centre with it, though.
609. jipmg
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


how about the odds of that line getting to Florida?


Based on what I am seeing, very slim, the HIGH to the east looks to be extreemely strong, notice the fast easterly winds going into the gulf, then a quick turn to the South east as it approaches the front. If the front doesn't slow then idk
Quoting Weather456:


you know that's a prefrontal squall line and highly baroclinic
Hate to ask it again but, explanation please.
611. JRRP
what is baroclinic
612. MayFL
To Weather456

Your are correct in your observations

Prefrontal Squall Lines

A prefrontal squall line is a squall line located in
the warm sector of a wave cyclone. They form about 50
to 300 miles in advance of fast-moving cold fronts and
are usually oriented roughly parallel to the cold front.
They move in about the same direction as the cold front;
however, their speed is, at times, faster than the cold
front.
You can roughly compute the direction and speed
by using the winds at the 500-mb level. Squall lines
generally move in the direction of the 500-mb wind
flow and at approximately 40% of the wind speed.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


how about the odds of that line getting to Florida?


Purty darn good I should say, since it's just down the street from us already. Oh yea, for those who forget, Pensacola is in Florida, a lot of people around here just sound like they're from Alabama.
614. XL
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hate to ask it again but, explanation please.


Please keep asking - saves me doing it. lol
Quoting Weather456:


you know that's a prefrontal squall line and highly baroclinic


Didn't this pick up the remnants if Rick, or did he go elsewhere? Just curious.
But it is one powerful squall line. I would hate to be sailing in it. If it stalls and breaks off it could develop.

just looked at an IR LOOP of 94L...surely this thing is done guys?...
Post 610

Look at post 612

Post 611

A baroclinic environment is one characterized as having gradients, either temperature or moisture gradients. A baroclinic environment is also characterized as having shearing in the vertical.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Didn't this pick up the remnants if Rick, or did he go elsewhere? Just curious.


This baby absorbed the remains of Rick...the convection to the south is just the cold front with the pre-frontal squall line preceding it

The Line has broken up a good deal from earlier and the severe threat is Lessening.

But the Tornado watch in Place is still active till 10pm CDT

Quoting 19N81W:
just looked at an IR LOOP of 94L...surely this thing is done guys?...


nope not yet; really nothing has changed, optimal conditions were delayed due to the front not moving out as soon as first thought

Conditions should become better for development on Saturday, then we will see what happens
622. JRRP
Quoting Weather456:
Post 610

Look at post 612

Post 611

A baroclinic environment is one characterized as having gradients, either temperature or moisture gradients. A baroclinic environment is also characterized as having shearing in the vertical.

thanks
Quoting jipmg:
that is a mighty fast moving cold front.. the official forecast states it wont get to South FLORIDA. you guys agree with it?


Agree with who...

The official forecast is for it to stall anywhere between Miami and the Florida Straights.

They definitively do say it's coming to Florida. Maybe just not for you guys way down on the southern tip.
Quoting XL:


Please keep asking - saves me doing it. lol
LOL
the front will get to the panhandle in 36 hours and stall over noth FL in 48 according to the NWS. The bottom will break of in the GOM. That can trigger a storm.
Rick did a Paloma and just dissipated it looks like
Quoting jipmg:


Based on what I am seeing, very slim, the HIGH to the east looks to be extreemely strong, notice the fast easterly winds going into the gulf, then a quick turn to the South east as it approaches the front. If the front doesn't slow then idk


That high is supposed to break down tomarrow according to the official forecast.
The Tornado watch north of here runs to Midnight CDT

Quoting presslord:


I'm so glad someone other than me made this glaringly obvious observation...
Quoting Chicklit:

That is not likely since we are in mid-semester everywhere right now.
I kinda hate to pass this message and won't pass anymore but JFV said to tell you both to shove it and look at his Facebook page. The proof is in the pudding. He seems to be following the blog. I would like to add a disclaimer as I like both of you and respect both a lot.
Rain rates have fallen off dramatically since around Sundown.



630. MayFL
We have also seen squall lines weaken before they reach the Peninsula of Florida.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I kinda hate to pass this message and won't pass anymore but JFV said to tell you both to shove it and look at his Facebook page. The proof is in the pudding. He seems to be following the blog. I would like to add a disclaimer as I like both of you and respect both a lot.
BTW, I logged off Facebook. Don't want to get mixed up in any petty foolishness.
Vorticity increasing once again in the SW Carribbean.
Quoting HURRICANECAT5:
Vorticity increasing once again in the SW Carribbean.
Post it please. Thanks
634. xcool


Quoting sailingallover:
the front will get to the panhandle in 36 hours and stall over noth FL in 48 according to the NWS. The bottom will break of in the GOM. That can trigger a storm.
Rick did a Paloma and just dissipated it looks like


Well the NWS in my neck of the woods said it would stall somewhere around South Florida/Florida straights.
Weather456, what does Quikscat show ?
fear not CI...and i'm pretty sure Chicklit can take it as well..
Quoting stormwatcherCI:


Basically nothing

It shows no surface low but speed convergence and some turning of the wind barbs but nothing near the ASCAT pass from this morning.
Quoting Weather456:


This baby absorbed the remains of Rick...the convection to the south is just the cold front with the pre-frontal squall line preceding it



Thanks, thought the front picked it up, just didn't realize most went north. Thought maybe it had become part of the squall line giving it a little extra energy.
Quoting xcool:




The GFS is not making any sense lol.
Quoting presslord:
fear not CI...and i'm pretty sure Chicklit can take it as well..
Yes, but it makes me very uncomfortable and I don't like it. Especially when I am not face to face with him so I can give him a piece of my mind. I have a very big mouth and say what I mean. Apologies to both of you.
Quoting Weather456:


Basically nothing

It shows no surface low but speed convergence and some turning of the wind barbs but nothing near the ASCAT pass from this morning.
Thanks.
..Yer welcome.

Sharing source data is easy.

Its not privy to anyone.



Quoting presslord:
fear not CI...and i'm pretty sure Chicklit can take it as well..
Also, smacks of a guilty conscience.
Quoting PcolaDan:


Thanks, thought the front picked it up, just didn't realize most went north. Thought maybe it had become part of the squall line giving it a little extra energy.


Ohok. Remember the squall line developed today. The main ingredients of such instability is warm southerly wind off the GOM, a surge of cold downdraft from the cold front forces the air to rise, dry air over laid at the mid-upper levels and strong vertical shear. All this can be seen on SKEW-T chart. This is as much as I know about mid-latitude severe weather....
649. Gorty
I made a forecast, check it out!!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Gorty/show.html
...don't sweat it... ; )
Quoting Gorty:
I made a forecast, check it out!!

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Gorty/show.html
I posted a comment for you.
Quoting presslord:
...don't sweat it... ; )
Thanks.
I wouldn't bet either way between north FL and the Straights as to where it will stall, and then sag,and then turn into a trough and go backwards or have a new low develop along it and start it going again. I leave all that to the NCEP and simply look at the main NWS page. Everyday because it changes so much.

Notice the bottom getting wider in the sat pic? Usually I see that before it starts to stall and break off. Just observation though.
so guys where is the coc of ex94l right now
Any new insight on the Bahama glob?
GOES-12 ESL GOM IR-loop.

for your viewing pleasure and dissertation

Evening Stormwatcher,Nice to have a day with a bit of sun,for a change?
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
so guys where is the coc of ex94l right now
Your guess is as good as mine but looks like it is pulling away from the coast.
Quoting superpete:
Evening Stormwatcher,Nice to have a day with a bit of sun,for a change?
Evening. Love the rain and yes it was great having some sunshine today. Wonder how long though.
Quoting presslord:
Any new insight on the Bahama glob?
In the words of a "famous" blogger, Nuttin'
I miss Yukon Cornelius,..he had character and wit.

We will see him next year a Lot Im feeling.

But dont quote me on that.
Were still in 09,..and Nov 30 is a long way off still
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Your guess is as good as mine but looks like it is pulling away from the coast.

ok the coast WHERE
Quoting sailingallover:
I wouldn't bet either way between north FL and the Straights as to where it will stall, and then sag,and then turn into a trough and go backwards or have a new low develop along it and start it going again. I leave all that to the NCEP and simply look at the main NWS page. Everyday because it changes so much.

Notice the bottom getting wider in the sat pic? Usually I see that before it starts to stall and break off. Just observation though.


Yeah...It's supposed to initially slow to a crow. But additional energy will force it southward by Sunday/Monday. As far south as Cuba.
Post 661> We are probably in for some more thunder & lightning throughout the weekend,according to the weather man on KY27....lol
Sadly,the Squall Line claims a young Life in Louisiana.


Pineville boy swept into storm drain; body recovered

By The Associated Press
October 22, 2009, 8:29PM

The body of a 12-year-old Pineville boy swept away by rushing storm water into a culvert has been recovered.

Rescue crews worked for more than an hour Thursday to find the boy, who was sucked into a storm drain that crosses under the road. Police say the boy and two others were playing in the ditch when the boy's bicycle fell into the water just after 4 p.m.

Investigators say the boy went into the water to retrieve the bike but was sucked in by the rushing water. Another boy tried to pull him out but was unsuccessful.

The child's name has not been released, pending notification of his family.
Quoting Patrap:
I miss Yukon Cornelius,..he had character and wit.

We will see him next year a Lot Im feeling.

But dont quote me on that.
Were still in 09,..and Nov 30 is a long way off still
Haven't seen him for a while.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

ok the coast WHERE
Nicaragua. Look at the RGB satellite and you will see.
Pat...How's it at your place tonight?


Hey guys. Remember this one from 1993. Totally different scenario from what is happening now, but proves those Gulf storms can get pretty powerful when they want to.
Quoting superpete:
Post 661> We are probably in for some more thunder & lightning throughout the weekend,according to the weather man on KY27....lol
Don't put too much stock in that. Do you know how he gets his forecast ? Rides his bicycle in S. Sound so he can see what the weather looks like. LOL Not saying it won't rain though cause I think he might be right for once.
Quoting presslord:
Pat...How's it at your place tonight?


Ouiet now,,..had a few T-storms ,around 30 secs of pea-sized Hail.
Mostly a good soaking..but the air is changing fast.
Falls a coming back.
Quoting Patrap:
Sadly,the Squall Line claims a young Life in Louisiana.


Pineville boy swept into storm drain; body recovered

By The Associated Press
October 22, 2009, 8:29PM

The body of a 12-year-old Pineville boy swept away by rushing storm water into a culvert has been recovered.

Rescue crews worked for more than an hour Thursday to find the boy, who was sucked into a storm drain that crosses under the road. Police say the boy and two others were playing in the ditch when the boy's bicycle fell into the water just after 4 p.m.

Investigators say the boy went into the water to retrieve the bike but was sucked in by the rushing water. Another boy tried to pull him out but was unsuccessful.

The child's name has not been released, pending notification of his family.
Why don't parents keep their kids home in these kinds of conditions. So sad.
Quoting Orcasystems:
Looks like somethings cooking.
Press,after you posted that link to my entry earlier,my Map-Loco went bezerk for sure,

Specially after 20:00 EST

Check it out


Latest surface analysis. Low is off the coast. A little further NE looks like.
Quoting Patrap:
Press,after you posted that link to my entry earlier,my Map-Loco went bezerk for sure,

Specially after 20:00 EST

Check it out


...dang...
Quoting Patrap:


Ouiet now,,..had a few T-storms ,around 30 secs of pea-sized Hail.
Mostly a good soaking..but the air is changing fast.
Falls a coming back.


Yep...For pretty much all of us.
...dang...

Thats what I said,..but a lil more emphasis and syntax to the Left




yep it has
Quoting presslord:
I just got the nicest e-mail from the sweetest widow lady in Nigeria...she wants to send me $20 million...all I have to do is send her my full name, date of birth, SS#, checking account number and bank routing number...What a nice way to end the day...


She has a Big addy list too,,I got one from her Brother yesterday.

I sent him a Former US Chief Executives Info..
..snicker,snort,ack,,LOL
...such a generous family...
Also,sometimes I will send those Kind the entire US tax Code in Italicized Large Font too.


They never respond back seems.


Thoughts on the waves?
Quoting presslord:
I just got the nicest e-mail from the sweetest widow lady in Nigeria...she wants to send me $20 million...all I have to do is send her my full name, date of birth, SS#, checking account number and bank routing number...What a nice way to end the day...

Wow! Thats not a good way to end the night. :o)
Quoting presslord:
...such a generous family...
I received it from an attorney in the UK as a text message on my cell phone. He said the check is in the mail.
Quoting presslord:
...such a generous family...
Boy, Taz has got your back so you have nothing to worry about.
I got one from Nigeria
Taz always has my back...
Quoting presslord:
Taz always has my back...
Yes, he's one of the best on here. Him and xcool are both great guys.
695. XL
Quoting presslord:
I just got the nicest e-mail from the sweetest widow lady in Nigeria...she wants to send me $20 million...all I have to do is send her my full name, date of birth, SS#, checking account number and bank routing number...What a nice way to end the day...


I get them on skype and I actually engage them in conversation for ages before telling them where to get off. I love it!!
Note to self - must get a life
Quoting presslord:
...such a generous family...


My neighbour got something like it.... and we have ordered one of these :)
XL...now THAT sounds like fun...
Quoting presslord:
...such a generous family...
My wife always email them back and tells them about JESUS and then tells her we are so broke that we dont have a checking account and send the check by mail.lolol.
ok what is the possiblity of a invest in sw carib in the next 48 hours?
and guys vort has indeed increased in ex 94l
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Yes, he's one of the best on here.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
ok what is the possiblity of a invest in sw carib in the next 48 hours?
Go to www.nhc.noaa.gov and check it out. Little to none in the next 48 hrs. I ask questions about things I don't know how to find. If you can find it yourself it's a lot easier and quicker than asking on here. Leave the questions for something that you really can't figure out yourself. Not trying to be insulting but if you can find WU it is just as easy to find NHC
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
and guys vort has indeed increased in ex 94l
Increased and separated from the Pacific.
703. xcool






Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Increased and separated from the Pacific.

that too
anyway what can I expect for here for the weekend?
...another cool story...

Link
TAZ is the best he is so good TAZ nos evere thing



you love TAZ i love you
Quoting Tazmanian:
TAZ is the best he is so good TAZ nos evere thing



you love TAZ i love you



...let's not get carried away there buster...
709. xcool
lol
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
anyway what can I expect for here for the weekend?
More rain probably but not much else at this point.
Quoting Tazmanian:
TAZ is the best he is so good TAZ nos evere thing



you love TAZ i love you
We all love you Taz. You're the best.
Quoting Tazmanian:
.
????????
Good night everyone. Tomorrow is another day.
The AOI in the SW Carribean looks like toast.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
????????



nevere mine lol
there is about as much activity in the SW Caribbean as my bedroom!! night all and plenty sunshine and drought on the way!! ye haa!!lets hope the cold fronts bring a sprinkle cuz from what I see its done..and been looking at it for 20 years....


Looks like it's going straight for the west coast of Florida. I have a sister who lives there right on the coast; don't care for her much, but I am worried about the rest who do. They can get quite nasty, my sister, too!
Night all, have fun.. looking forward to seeing what the morning brings.. other then TGIF



Seismic Monitor

AOI

AOI

Humor in Comments
My God the hurricane season going to end the way it started tracking blobs across the gulf of Mexico.
the green one went to San Fransisco yesterday..the humans ( red) have a comprtable lead over the models on Neki..
Average Error (nm) for core models
model Error Trend 24hr Error 48hr Error 72hr Error Day 4 Error Day 5 Error
OFCL CONSTANT 49.3 103.4 206.9 273 -1
HWRF DECREASING 88.1 175.9 235.9 347.1 502.4
MM5B INCREASING 88.2 196.4 242.2 626.3 800.3
GFDL CONSTANT 93.7 152.1 224.3 368.6 525.9
BAMD CONSTANT 112.5 201.5 311.9 435.1 477.3
LBAR INCREASING 147.5 198.2 224.7 278.9 354.8

The front coming toward FL is the classic El Nino winter front. Really increases the storminess & tornado out breaks. FL's (not so) dry season outlook.
Quoting Grothar:


Looks like it's going straight for the west coast of Florida. I have a sister who lives there right on the coast; don't care for her much, but I am worried about the rest who do. They can get quite nasty, my sister, too!


that thing look much scarier than the blobs. really stretching its' arm out across the gulf
Quoting Orcasystems:


As long as your Wife/GF/SO thinks its MUST..and you know its MIGHT.... and you learn how to say "Yes Dear", then you to can celebrate your 30th anniversary like we did the other day... ROFLMAO, both sick with the swine flu and not talking :)


Wome. At least the ones i've grown up with.
Quoting Patrap:


She has a Big addy list too,,I got one from her Brother yesterday.

I sent him a Former US Chief Executives Info..
..snicker,snort,ack,,LOL


Tisk tisk Patty the men in black shall be waiting for you :P.
The dry air and shear from that remnant trough dug in to the southern Caribbean and made X94L go POOF. Another bust in the books for the 2009 season. The ECMWF sniffed out some trash this time. Goes to show you this is not a normal season and has been over with for quite a while. I believe there is more going on in the atmosphere than we can see that is prohibiting development this season.
727. xcool
Quoting markymark1973:
The dry air and shear from that remnant trough dug in to the southern Caribbean and made X94L go POOF. Another bust in the books for the 2009 season. The ECMWF sniffed out some trash this time. Goes to show you this is not a normal season and has been over with for quite a while. I believe there is more going on in the atmosphere than we can see that is prohibiting development this season.


Or maybe it's just El Nino...
Our insurance company just cancelled our policy for homeowners - glad the season is almost over. Gotta love GA Farm Bureau...they were happy to take our money forever while we were in the house, it's been vacant for a few months while it's being sold and now it's "see ya..." thank God for Lloyds of London...they are the only ones who insure at a reasonable price for a short term gig. We would be totally screwed if the season was in full force and it was a rough season...

Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "RAMIL" has weakened into a Tropical Storm and remained almost stationary.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #23
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Tropical Storm Ramil (Lupit) located at 18.9ºN 122.6ºE or 110 kms east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 km/h (55 kts) with gustiness up to 135 km/h (70 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Northern Cagayan
2.Babuyan
3.Calayan Islands
4.Batanes Group

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Rest of Cagayan
2.Ilocos Norte
3.Apayao

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Ilocos Sur
2.Abra
3.Kalinga
4.Mt. Province
5.Isabela
6.Ifugao
7.Quirino
8.Northern Aurora

Additional Information
======================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere now lowered.

Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 p.m. today.
Good Morning

Blog Update

Tropical Update
Quoting KoritheMan:


Or maybe it's just El Nino...


El Nino cannot explain why the AEJ has been weaker than normal nor why the Atlantic has been drier than normal. El Nino can only explain the wind shear and increase in trades factors. Thus, there are other factors that played a role this year.
Good Morning Everyone

Getting ready for a three hour plane ride to Chicago. I'm sure the flight will be packed!
Quoting melwerle:
Our insurance company just cancelled our policy for homeowners - glad the season is almost over. Gotta love GA Farm Bureau...they were happy to take our money forever while we were in the house, it's been vacant for a few months while it's being sold and now it's "see ya..." thank God for Lloyds of London...they are the only ones who insure at a reasonable price for a short term gig. We would be totally screwed if the season was in full force and it was a rough season...

My insurance company just canceled homeowners policies too. Apparently the head office in Trinidad(I think) has gotten into some kind of difficulties. Has to run around like crazy looking for another insurance company. Don't want to be without insurance in the heart of hurricane season. Luckily it was only 1 day without insurance.
this season say no development and your character should look good more often than not lots of teases though this yr
Quoting Weather456:


El Nino cannot explain why the AEJ has been weaker than normal nor why the Atlantic has been drier than normal. El Nino can only explain the wind shear and increase in trades factors. Thus, there are other factors that played a role this year.


I read somewhere that El Nino tends to suppress the effects of the MJO, so perhaps the upward motion pulses that we did get were all hindered by El Nino?

As for the AEJ, maybe it's because Africa was drier than normal this year? I'm not saying it was, but I didn't pay close attention to whether or not Africa was wetter or drier than normal this year, respectively.

Just a couple of thoughts.
read? korieth thought all you young guys do is talk on the cell. africa seemed wetter than normal this yr. it will be interesting to get the final results soon tgif
Quoting leftovers:
read? korieth thought all you young guys do is talk on the cell tgif


I'm much different from your typical 18 year old. I figure if I have earned the legal status of "adult" (in the United States at least), then I should be obligated to act like one.

Also, unlike most people my age, I am not at all materialistic -- I value more important things.
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning

Blog Update

Tropical Update
Goodmorning 456, Thank you for your post! Is dry air the only factor that is inhibiting developement at this point?
Quoting KoritheMan:


I read somewhere that El Nino tends to suppress the effects of the MJO, so perhaps the upward motion pulses that we did get were all hindered by El Nino?

As for the AEJ, maybe it's because Africa was drier than normal this year? I'm not saying it was, but I didn't pay close attention to whether or not Africa was wetter or drier than normal this year, respectively.

Just a couple of thoughts.


El Nino suppresses the MJO? I've never heard that.

Also if Africa was drier that would of increase the moisture gradient between Sahara and Sub-Sahara so in effect the AEJ would intensify.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Goodmorning 456, Thank you for your post! Is dry air the only factor that is inhibiting developement at this point?


From my blog

Shower activity has diminished along the feature and this is due both a combination of moderate shear and dry air associated with a lingering upper trough (which I don't think was supposed do this) north of the area.
Quoting Weather456:


From my blog

Shower activity has diminished along the feature and this is due both a combination of moderate shear and dry air associated with a lingering upper trough (which I don't think was supposed do this) north of the area.
Looks like a little convection is flaring up around the "coc" again though.
456, If this AOI becomes a GOM system early next week, as the scenerio you mentioned in your blog. Will wind sheer be favorable?
Quoting Weather456:


From my blog

Shower activity has diminished along the feature and this is due both a combination of moderate shear and dry air associated with a lingering upper trough (which I don't think was supposed do this) north of the area.
thanks
Quoting stormsurge39:
456, If this AOI becomes a GOM system early next week, as the scenerio you mentioned in your blog. Will wind sheer be favorable?


Again, from my blog

Most of the models show the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico through early next week where they cannot agree on its faith. Some have it absorbed into a frontal boundary while the GFS/CMC develops it into a tropical storm in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, I feel the disturbance will remain weak in the Caribbean but uncertain as to what it might do when it enters the Gulf of Mexico

Here's the shear forecast...it remains low in the SE GOM

746. MahFL
Goodmoring all. Seems the persistent blob in the deep carib is erm... persistent.
Here's another factor other than El Nino why the tropical atmosphere is so stable

The global tropical atmosphere temperature taken by AMSU found the near surface to be warmer in 2009 than in 2008 but 0.19 degrees F cooler in 2009 from 400 mb to 5mb (near the tropopause and stratosphere).
Quoting Weather456:


El Nino cannot explain why the AEJ has been weaker than normal nor why the Atlantic has been drier than normal. El Nino can only explain the wind shear and increase in trades factors. Thus, there are other factors that played a role this year.


Are there any 24 or 48 hour Wv loops around? I think that will show how the dry air played a big part in all of this.
Quoting Weather456:


Again, from my blog

Most of the models show the system moving into the Gulf of Mexico through early next week where they cannot agree on its faith. Some have it absorbed into a frontal boundary while the GFS/CMC develops it into a tropical storm in the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico. At this point, I feel the disturbance will remain weak in the Caribbean but uncertain as to what it might do when it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

Here's the shear forecast...it remains low in the SE GOM

Thanks for being more specific to my questions. Is that a 144 hours of wind sheer maps?
Quoting Keys99:


Are there any 24 or 48 hour Wv loops around? I think that will show how the dry air played a big part in all of this.


That comment wasn't related to 94L but the 2009 hurricane season

You can get 48 hr loops here and dry air did play a role

Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks for being more specific to my questions. Is that a 144 hours of wind sheer maps?


120 hrs
Quoting Weather456:


120 hrs
456 are the GFS/CMC the only models at this time forecasting a tropical storm in the SE/GOM early next week? I know you dont want to speculate this far out about the SE/GOM, but looks like if it even makes it the SE/GOM, that the wind sheer continues to drop over the whole GOM over the next 122 hours! Am i right?
Quoting stormsurge39:
456 are the GFS/CMC the only models at this time forecasting a tropical storm in the SE/GOM early next week? I know you dont want to speculate this far out about the SE/GOM, but looks like if it even makes it the SE/GOM, that the wind sheer continues to drop over the whole GOM over the next 122 hours! Am i right?


only those 2 models

and even though show do drop as you said, the uncertainty with this one is great.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Looks like a little convection is flaring up around the "coc" again though.
actually alittle spin to just east of nicaraqua
Quoting Weather456:


From my blog

Shower activity has diminished along the feature and this is due both a combination of moderate shear and dry air associated with a lingering upper trough (which I don't think was supposed do this) north of the area.
It looks to me like the dry air is decreasing somewhat. Is it possible that the moisture coming down across the Bahamas is helping to push the dry air out ?
Good Morning!
Hades - as always thanks for the Philippines update..SurfGodfather has been lurking and I send him updates, dislocated his shoulder surfing waves from the last Typhoon

Curious about this cold front sliding 'cross the belly of the Gulf. This report from the Surfer's perspective: AURASURF

Friday 6am updater 1004mb low pressure over LA this am with another low farther N, attendant cold front in the middle gulf. All the energy will be moving away towards the northern plains. How fast this happens will affect how much swell we see from this system. Right now winds in the middle gulf have just started at 20 plus from the WNW and NW. So it depends on how long it blows but we should see a little swell late Saturday. This will be a quick 12-18hr window that will mostly happen Saturday night(doh) with smaller conditions for Sunday am going back to flat by late Sunday. I'm sticking with the call for a 1-2ft WNW swell, but it looks 6hrs earlier than Wednesday's forcast so late Saturday may be the time. Not an epic swell, but keep an eye on the cams Saturday pm and Sunday am, there is a chance for a small, clean bump somewhere. Have a good day.
Our met service has latched onto the disturbance.

NEWS RELEASE

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO AFFECT WEATEHR OVER JAMAICA

An area of Low pressure across the southwestern Caribbean with associated showers and thunderstorms is expected to affect Jamaica starting Friday night and continue through to Sunday. These showers and thunderstorms which may be heavy at times could cause flooding of low lying and flood prone areas.

Fishers and other marine interest are advised to exercise caution due to strong winds and rough seas, expected during thunderstorms over inshore and offshore areas.

The Meteorological Service will continue to monitor the situation.

vtj
This is Key West Weathers take on all this. The area in the Sw Caribbean is not even a player in their forcast


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PRESENT A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE BAHAMAS TROUGH.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT...SLIDING THE MID/UPPER
LOW WEST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...THERE
REMAINS QUITE A SPREAD AT THE SURFACE...WITH THE GFS AND SREF MEAN
SHOWING A CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT WHICH HEADS TO THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF DEPICT A WEAKER OPEN TROUGH
THAT MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE STRONGER
SOLUTIONS WOULD TEND TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE CONFINED TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
KEYS...WHILE THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS WOULD ALLOW THE MORE FAVORABLE
REGION OF MOISTURE AND LIFT TO SPREAD ACROSS THE KEYS DURING THE
WEEKEND. ANOTHER POTENTIAL COMPLICATION WILL BE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...
WHICH IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND
REMAIN THERE ON SUNDAY. AT THIS POINT...FEEL THAT THE STRONGER GFS
SOLUTION FOR THE BAHAMAS TROUGH IS LIKELY OVERDONE...AND WILL LEAN
TOWARD THE WEAKER ECMWF. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW FOR THE
WEEKEND FORECAST PERIODS...AND WILL GO WITH JUST LOW END CHANCE POPS
OF 30 PERCENT FOR NOW.


Looks like shear has decreased somewhat since yesterday except for the small area of 40 kt just east of Jamaica.
760. IKE
NHC has stopped mentioning the western Caribbean disturbance....


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




Quoting Weather456:


only those 2 models

and even though show do drop as you said, the uncertainty with this one is great.
I was going by the maps you posted. Thats why i asked if i was right? I appreciate the uncertainty and im not trying to set off a bunch of alarms in the GOM! As much as i love hurricanes, it gets my attention when a system has even the slightest potiential to enter the GOM, because it has no where to go but land! I like the way you forecast! I saw what year you were born the other day and was suprised, because of your insightfullness! Looks like you have a good long career ahead of you.
Quoting IKE:
NHC has stopped mentioning the western Caribbean disturbance....



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 23 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS ARE
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA




I don't know if I would give up on it yet though. All that moisture to the east and to the west.
763. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I don't know if I would give up on it yet though. All that moisture to the east and to the west.


NHC has. It has no model support.
Quoting IKE:


NHC has. It has no model support.



don`t two models develop it once in the gulf?
Quoting IKE:


NHC has. It has no model support.
I understand but I am looking at the conditions and you know that constantly changes(models).
it is amazing what can happen overnight! I dont think this scenario is any better for Cayman?
767. IKE
Quoting centralflaman:



don`t two models develop it once in the gulf?


Here are the latest models....

00Z CMC.


6Z GFS.


6Z UKMET.


00Z NOGAPS.


00Z ECMWF.
Quoting centralflaman:



don`t two models develop it once in the gulf?
Just because the NHC drops an AOI, does not mean models stop. There could be no color and then a color! IMO we shouldnt always get comfortable when the NHC drops a color because it could change back quickly!


Since the NHC has the yellow circle extending south of Jamaica maybe there is a slight possibility of development in the area TampaSpin forecasted.
Quoting IKE:


Here are the latest models....

00Z CMC.


6Z GFS.


6Z UKMET.


00Z NOGAPS.


00Z ECMWF.
looks like what 456 said, GFS/CMC support a tropical storm in the SE GOM towards the end of the run.
The Year of the Shear
sung to the tune of "The Year of the Cat"

On the morning of six one oh nine
In a country where the mets are fine
They saw El Nino freakin' like Peter Lore
Contemplating a crime

Storms came out of the sun from off Africa running
Generating a lot of rain
Bloggers asking for explanations
Why the canes never came
In the year of the shear.

Doc Masters answered all the questions
As storm after storm appeared
And we followed each one closely...would they get through this time?
But each completely disappeared

By the blue tiled walls of the NHC stalls
There's a hidden door they'll show you to
These days, they're lounging and eating donuts
Like a cop in Timbucktoo...
The year of the shear

Well, the shear it does its work so cooly
Doesn't matter that the sun's on the sea
The sheer's relentless like a spring bee
MJO? What the heck does it mean?
The year of the shear

Mornings pass and shear's still out there
And most of the bloggers are gone
And you've thrown away your life and lost your marriage
So you have to stay on

But the drum-beat strains of El Nino remains
In the rhythm of the new-born day
You know sometime there's bound to be one
But for now they stay away
In the year of the shear
Quoting CycloneOz:
The Year of the Shear
sung to the tune of "The Year of the Cat"

On the morning of six one oh nine
In a country where the mets are fine
They saw El Nino freakin' like Peter Lore
Contemplating a crime

Storms came out of the sun from off Africa running
Generating a lot of rain
Bloggers asking for explanations
Why the canes never came
In the year of the shear.

Doc Masters answered all the questions
As storm after storm appeared
And we followed each one closely...would they get through this time?
But each completely disappeared

By the blue tiled walls of the NHC stalls
There's a hidden door they'll show you to
These days, they're lounging and eating donuts
Like a cop in Timbucktoo...
The year of the shear

Well, the shear it does its work so cooly
Doesn't matter that the sun's on the sea
The sheer's relentless like a spring bee
MJO? What the heck does it mean?
The year of the shear

Mornings pass and shear's still out there
And most of the bloggers are gone
And you've thrown away your life and lost your marriage
So you have to stay on

But the drum-beat strains of El Nino remains
In the rhythm of the new-born day
You know sometime there's bound to be one
But for now they stay away
In the year of the shear



This has got to be the most memorable hit of the season. Thank you for making my day....again!













More on the Tropical Atlantic
Updated: Friday, October 23, 2009 8:05 AM

There are now two trouble spots to keep an eye on in the tropical Atlantic, one in the Bahamas and the other in the southwestern Caribbean.


The disturbed area in the Bahamas could become a little better organized during the next 24 hours then take a run at the Southeast coast this weekend. The chance of this ever becoming something really significant is very low.


Meanwhile, the low pressure system in the western Caribbean has been milling around all week, but might start a slow northward drift over the weekend. This disturbance probably has a little better chance of becoming a named tropical storm, but that wouldn't happen until late in the weekend or early next week.


Forecast By AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist John Kocet.
Good Morning. Things really quieted down in the Caribbean overnight. Having a little trouble however understanding how the area around the Bahamas is supposed to slowly drift towards Florida with another frontal trof headed west from the Gulf. Seems to me that the Bahmamas area would be cleared out as the front approaches.
776. MahFL
Note Accu says "might" "little"...anyone could could say that and be right.
777. MahFL
Our met said the front would split and fizzle out over NE FL.
well looks like the down-casters won this one, but in all honesty even a stopped watch is right twice a day

It is really easy to come on here and just pound it into everyone's' minds that a storm will not develop; the really good people on here analyze things and give you a reason why.

Most down-casters do not give any reason

anyway have a good day folks
Looks like the NHC dropped the SW caribbean area and consolidated the whole area from the Bahamas to the south of Jamaica, I still think the SW caribbean is the best bet, a complex system though, I wouldn't write it off completely & plus convection is firing again, jmo.
Quoting CycloneOz:
The Year of the Shear
sung to the tune of "The Year of the Cat"

On the morning of six one oh nine
In a country where the mets are fine
They saw El Nino freakin' like Peter Lore
Contemplating a crime

Storms came out of the sun from off Africa running
Generating a lot of rain
Bloggers asking for explanations
Why the canes never came
In the year of the shear.

Doc Masters answered all the questions
As storm after storm appeared
And we followed each one closely...would they get through this time?
But each completely disappeared

By the blue tiled walls of the NHC stalls
There's a hidden door they'll show you to
These days, they're lounging and eating donuts
Like a cop in Timbucktoo...
The year of the shear

Well, the shear it does its work so cooly
Doesn't matter that the sun's on the sea
The sheer's relentless like a spring bee
MJO? What the heck does it mean?
The year of the shear

Mornings pass and shear's still out there
And most of the bloggers are gone
And you've thrown away your life and lost your marriage
So you have to stay on

But the drum-beat strains of El Nino remains
In the rhythm of the new-born day
You know sometime there's bound to be one
But for now they stay away
In the year of the shear


OK CycloneOZ, you can tell us now, who are you really, David Foster or Bob Dylan? Nobody can come up with theses unless they're a pro!! They are really good.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like the NHC dropped the SW caribbean area and consolidated the whole area from the Bahamas to the south of Jamaica, I still think the SW caribbean is the best bet, a complex system though, I wouldn't write it off completely & plus convection is firing again, jmo.
I am going to still make sure to continue to monitor it.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
well looks like the down-casters won this one, but in all honesty even a stopped watch is right twice a day

It is really easy to come on here and just pound it into everyone's' minds that a storm will not develop; the really good people on here analyze things and give you a reason why.

Most down-casters do not give any reason

anyway have a good day folks


You need to chill a little......You alway have a tendancy to focus on the negative and are quick to jump on folks....No need to go there so early in the morning. :)
First off, there is still a chance for development next week as conditions get better in the Western Carribean. Downcasters need to really stop what they're doing and look in the reality of things.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Looks like the NHC dropped the SW caribbean area and consolidated the whole area from the Bahamas to the south of Jamaica, I still think the SW caribbean is the best bet, a complex system though, I wouldn't write it off completely & plus convection is firing again, jmo.


I ,for one, will still watch it. These things can take a while to get going. Ahhh!, another "wait and see" system. Just like the economy, wax, wane, and fizzle then expode.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
well looks like the down-casters won this one, but in all honesty even a stopped watch is right twice a day

It is really easy to come on here and just pound it into everyone's' minds that a storm will not develop; the really good people on here analyze things and give you a reason why.

Most down-casters do not give any reason

anyway have a good day folks


So typical of you!
Also guys think of this.. The downcasters may have one the battle, but Mother Nature will always win the war. Peoples minds cannot compete with Mother Nature.
Quoting Grothar:


OK CycloneOZ, you can tell us now, who are you really, David Foster or Bob Dylan? Nobody can come up with theses unless they're a pro!! They are really good.


I've asked penscoladoug if he'd record this song for us.

I hope he says yes, then we can make a video.
789. beell
downcasters won
wishcasters lost
forecasters keep on forecasting
Quoting beell:
downcasters won
wishcasters lost
forecasters keep on forecasting


Round 1 goes to the wise man from Texas.
Quoting reedzone:
First off, there is still a chance for development next week as conditions get better in the Western Carribean. Downcasters need to really stop what they're doing and look in the reality of things.


I can wait.
Quoting reedzone:
Also guys think of this.. The downcasters may have one the battle, but Mother Nature will always win the war. Peoples minds cannot compete with Mother Nature.


Man you need some help! You are taking this way personal. This is just a weather blog and people give their opinions.
It seems to me you only get on here to call for development whenever an AOI is posted, then you disappear when it doesn't turn out the way you thought.
This isn"t about who win or looses!!!
TIll the system is completely gone or develops no one is right! It will be another 5-7 days most likely before the final outcome of this system.
BTW, anyone know where StormW was yesterday ? Don't remember seeing anything posted by him.
Quoting centralflaman:
TIll the system is completely gone or develops no one is right! It will be another 5-7 days most likely before the final outcome of this system.
Exactly.
Quoting CycloneBoz:


I've asked penscoladoug if he'd record this song for us.

I hope he says yes, then we can make a video.


Now I am really confused, are you CycloneOz or CycloneBoz. Hey, I'd watch the video. I am musically talented, too in a way. I know how to burn the discs. lol. Really good stuff you do, though.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
BTW, anyone know where StormW was yesterday ? Don't remember seeing anything posted by him.


yeah, and by the way, I didn't notice tornadodude either! Hope he didn't get banned for his little faux pas the other day. It was just a mistake.
The only real tangible thing right now is that sheer is very high, as of this morning per CIMSS, around the AOI and in the Gulf and Caribbean.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
The only real tangible thing right now is that sheer is very high, as of this morning per CIMSS, around the AOI and in the Gulf and Caribbean.


That and DRy air...No way anything develops in those conditions......until things change....NO WAY!....i guess im a downcaster.....LOL
Quoting Grothar:


yeah, and by the way, I didn't notice tornadodude either! Hope he didn't get banned for his little faux pas the other day. It was just a mistake.


Good morning Grothar! Mind going on the weather chat for a few, private matter.
Quoting reedzone:
Also guys think of this.. The downcasters may have one the battle, but Mother Nature will always win the war. Peoples minds cannot compete with Mother Nature.


broad weak low pressure area down there has fizzled. Disturbance in the bahamas (could) bring parts of southern florida some rain but no development is expected. I think that about does it for this season. Next year should be interesting.

adrian
Quoting caneswatch:


Good morning Grothar! Mind going on the weather chat for a few, private matter.


Be right there! The dry air won't stick around there forever.
Quoting Grothar:


Be right there! The dry air won't stick around there forever.


Ok.
804. IKE
Quoting capeflorida:


Man you need some help! You are taking this way personal. This is just a weather blog and people give their opinions.
It seems to me you only get on here to call for development whenever an AOI is posted, then you disappear when it doesn't turn out the way you thought.
This isn"t about who win or looses!!!


So true....but, you left out one....

They come back in here and call others that said it wouldn't develop... downcasters....and then they leave.

Quoting IKE:


So true....but, you left out one....

They come back in here and call others that said it wouldn't develop... downcasters....and then they leave.



Dido IKE.....POOF.......LOL
The NHC should remove the yellow on the next update....Shear, the ULL, Dry air is all the reasons to take it down......NOTHING CAN and will develop with those conditions down there...HECK if they leave it up long enough, i guess they might get it right next year if they wonna leave it up.......LOL
807. IKE
Quoting hurricane23:


broad weak low pressure area down there has fizzled. Disturbance in the bahamas (could) bring parts of southern florida some rain but no development is expected. I think that about does it for this season. Next year should be interesting.

adrian


And I agree with you, I think it's about finished in 2009 in the Atlantic. Maybe some named system out in the CATL might spin up.

Amazing that Claudette was/is, the only named storm to exist beyond 75W ALL season.

That should be telling everyone something about the chances of a named system in the western Caribbean in late October, when there's been one named system beyond 75W all year...in 145 days of the season.

Quoting TampaSpin:


That and DRy air...No way anything develops in those conditions......until things change....NO WAY!....i guess im a downcaster.....LOL


Yeah....We discussed that dry air point a few days ago as to whether it would filter all the way down into the Caribbean and it has...
810. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Unfavorable conditions have been settled in the Western Atlantic basin for how many months now??? The season is OVER. You could have a better chance hitting the lottery than getting another named storm. I think the NHC is bored 95L is a joke. Going to be under moderate shear of 30kts for the next 36 hrs and then after that it only gets worse with the trough moving off the east coast. Starting to look like 8/2/2 will be the storm count for the 2009 hurricane season.