WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Western Caribbean disturbance could bring heavy rains to Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:55 PM GMT on June 15, 2007

An area of disturbed weather (94L) with heavy thunderstorm activity has developed in the western Caribbean between Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba. This disturbance has the potential to form into a tropical depression by Sunday as it drifts northwards into the Gulf of Mexico. Wind shear over the northwest Caribbean is a not-so-healthy-for-development 20-25 knots, but is forecast to decrease somewhat over the next 48 hours. There is some dry air over the western Caribbean and southern Gulf of Mexico, but water vapor satellite loops show that the thunderstorm activity starting to fire up in association with the disturbance is steadily moistening the atmosphere. However, surface pressures are rising over the region, and thus any development is going to be slow to occur. The 7:21am EDT QuikSCAT satellite wind map show no surface circulation, and neither do satellite loops. Top winds from QuikSCAT were in the 20-30 mph range. However, winds were only about 15 mph at the Yucatan Basin buoy, and this is more representative of the winds associated with the disturbance.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of the western Caribbean disturbance.


Figure 2. Early model tracks for the western Caribbean disturbance.

None of the computer models forecast that this system will become a tropical storm, but the GFS model is indicating that an extratropical storm will form from this system early next week once it moves over Florida. The situation looks similar to what happened with Tropical Storm Barry, and we could get a hybrid subtropical storm forming in the Gulf on Saturday or Sunday, as the system passes over some very deep warm waters associated with the "Loop Current" that feed the Gulf Stream. There will be a lot of wind shear (20-40 knots) over the northern Gulf of Mexico over the next seven days, which should prevent any system that forms from having winds stonger than about 60 mph. A tropical, subtropical or extratropical storm with winds topping out at 50 mph is 20% probable, though, and Florida may be the beneficiary of another good rain-making storm.

A Hurricane Hunter flight was scheduled to visit the system at 2pm EDT this afternoon, but has been canceled. The flight has not been re-scheduled for Saturday. I'll have an update on this system this afternoon, and will include my rest of June outlook for hurricane season.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks for the update dr. m.!!!
Thanks for the update!
Dr. M...you sound fairly optomistic of it's chances.Interesting,thanks for the update.
Like I said in the last blog, if it was my gas money, i'd wait until tomorrow.... at least!
A foo-foo storm...
Thanks Dr. Masters!

I agree Kris! Mr. Conservative is interested, watch out, lol.
LOL TCW.
Fuel is NEVER a consideration for Tasking a NHC flight. Its the Air Force that Task the Mission.Fuel is never a constraint.To think it is,,is ridiculous.
10. IKE
I would wait until tomorrow too on the recon.

Wouldn't be shocked to wake up in the morning and be looking at an entirely different looking system.
Mr. Conservative is usually right in being conservative though,so,who re we to make fun of him,LOL?
still possible to get a girl out of this
thanks for the update.
The DoD has fuel the likes that God has never seen. Its called the National Reserve. Its kept in old salt mines in SW Louisiana.
Thanks Buddy
Probably right,Patrap.I believe it was the head NOAA guy who said a few weeks ago that they have never and will never cancel a flight due to money issues.
After Barry, the Good Dr. is more optimistic! LOL
Wouldn't that be Dr. Conservative...

I'm sure Jeff didn't get his PhD to be called Mr.

LOL
Posted By: thelmores at 2:05 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

After Barry, the Good Dr. is more optimistic! LOL



LOL,well,when his forecast of "20% chance of an NS in the next two weeks" was busted 5 hours later,who can blame him?
Posted By: thelmores at 2:05 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

After Barry, the Good Dr. is more optimistic! LOL

lol
Ok,let's stop bashing Dr. Masters before Aaron bans us all,LOL.
The Quikscat actually did show some turning of the winds.

hehe. I still think this system has some potential especially considering the "chronicles" of Tropical Storm Barry. i don't want to rule this one out yet.
Pat, gimme a break, I was saying what I would do!

What are the HH's gonna investigate? A mid-level low with little convection?? LOL
Drak, you are pretty good at sitting on that fence! LOL
I never did understand why so many people refer to Dr. Masters in such a, hmm how do i put this. So many people refer to him on a first name basis or even sometimes with less respect than even that.

Ive always been amazed that more people arent banned for just straight disrespect.
that convection could always come back as the shear relax. and you can also not that there is a new area of convection suoth of the mi level spin. Dr. Masters says that moisture is rising, possibly a sign that the upper level winds are relaxing. when the RECON investigates they might find something at the surface who know. I expect anything especially after seeing Barry.
Thanks for the early blog, Doc.

I can tell from your last paragraph that you were already working on a bigger one to post today.

So, on all our behalf, thanks for the early morn. update!!!
My opinion, Dr. Masters is above the fray, and pays little attention to the squabbling on the blog. As a professional, he just does his job! :)
Posted By: thelmores at 2:11 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Drak, you are pretty good at sitting on that fence! LOL

lol with these kind of systems i really don't know what to expect.
why would i not sit on the fence with a system that has the potential to develop.
Yes,some people(mostly trolls) actually occasionally accuse him of pushing a liberal agenda and I've seen one guy call one of his statements ridiculous.
Posted By: thelmores at 2:13 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

My opinion, Dr. Masters is above the fray, and pays little attention to the squabbling on the blog. As a professional, he just does his job! :)


He does browse the comments sometimes,I've seen him reply to people before.But no,he doesn't get involved with all the arguing and name-calling.
I agree Drak, these June storms in the NW Carr can be tricky customers, because a lot of time they don't fit into one particular category. And it seems the models have a hard time grasping all the dynamics involved.

after Barry, NEVER say never! Even Dr. Masters was quite amazed by Barry! Think we all were!
it doesn't look too bad on the low cloud product. i feel as though if there was a low level spin then it would only need a little more organization to become a depression.
definately Barry was really it really wanted to form.
Personally, I would rather have open-minded discussions with a group of "fence-sitters" than a blog full of StormTopKat know-it-all comments.

Kudos to Drak, IMHO.
Well, I must confess, I do think Dr. Masters does come off at times as being a little to the left.... but hey, it's his blog!

Despite his left leanings, I can handle that because I believe Dr. Masters is intellectually honest! He believes what he writes, that is basically all you can ask! There are many who spew stuff they really don't believe.......

Anyway, I have a roadtrip, so I won't be back until this evening. Ya'll hold down the fort! :)
lol seminoles. I wasnt ont eh fence with Barry i didn't think it would develop at all. I feel that Jeff and i see thaqt same thing. There is that potential for development, but your not so sure so lets jsut call it a rain maker for now. Thats the kind of system this is for me.
I agree SF.... I was giving Drak a hard time!

keeping an open mind in science is key, especially when even the brightest minds don't have "ALL" the pieces! :)
Tendency is down in the area. I'd say mid saturday-sunday we have something.
The NHC will sometimes fly a mission...just to let the crews get some Flight time.This one is no different. It was tasked..they will fly..and its what they do.A system South of such a population to its north ..alone warrants the invest.Ive seen them cancels 20 minutes out from Keeler....Ive seen training flights diverted too a new interest area while flying. They a Tight breed the HH. We lucky to have one as a blogger here.
Posted By: thelmores at 2:24 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

I agree SF.... I was giving Drak a hard time!

keeping an open mind in science is key, especially when even the brightest minds don't have "ALL" the pieces! :)


ROFL
"It was tasked..they will fly.."

Is that written in stone? LOL

I recall many canceled flights........
Looks like it could be another Barry. GFDL has it coming right through Tampa like Barry did. Barry was an odd TS considering there was literally no wind associated with the center of circulation. The winds came on the backside of the system long after it passed Tampa.
nash28 where is the GFDL run on this???
hmm never mind i see Jeff posted it XD
Drak- Look at the model map Dr. Masters posted in the blog. The red line is GFDL.
Sorry Drak:-) You posted before me:-)
I say the next model runs show the system ending up South of Tampa
Damn. I was too slow in reporting Nelly. Someone beat me to it.
Thats not fair... S. FL has already gotten a storm. We in the panhandle need rain pretty badly.

What jerks, those southern floridians.
Setealing our rain
Pshh... LOL
Posted By: seminolesfan at 10:06 AM EDT on June 15, 2007.
Wouldn't that be Dr. Conservative...

I'm sure Jeff didn't get his PhD to be called Mr.

LOL


I wasn't addressing Dr. Masters in that statement. I was metaphorically speaking with Kris. No disrespect was intended.
Posted By: Hellsniper223 at 2:31 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Thats not fair... S. FL has already gotten a storm. We in the panhandle need rain pretty badly.

What jerks, those southern floridians.
Setealing our rain
Pshh... LOL

LOL.
Sorry TCW-I guess that was a misinterpretation on my end.
3 HOURS AND 30 MIN TILL RECON.
It would be a little odd to have the first three named systems of the season be hybrids.
HellSniper if it make "landfall" in central florida. Everyone should get rain. The rain stream up from the south to the north.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 151400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT FRI 15 JUN 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-023

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: INVEST FOR 15/1800Z IN GULF OF MEXICO
CANCELED BY NHC AT 15/1235Z.
Posted By: nash28 at 2:37 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

It would be a little odd to have the first three named systems of the season be hybrids.

yea. Barry was borderline tropical storm. I think this one can actually be a tropical depression if it comes down to the surface.
lol RECON canceled. what would be interesting is to see this system fire back up again.
No recon today.
No rescheduled flight for tomorrow either!

Posted By: Drakoen at 2:40 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

lol RECON canceled. what would be interesting is to see this system fire back up again.


Yeah, Drak. Now that the recon has canceled It'll explode, leaving us all to ponder wheather or not it is actually Depression/storm.
heh maybe tommorrow when they see improvement. i guess Dr. masters was right. But i think they may investiagate tommorrow.
Posted By: Hellsniper223 at 2:45 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Posted By: Drakoen at 2:40 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

lol RECON canceled. what would be interesting is to see this system fire back up again.

Yeah, Drak. Now that the recon has canceled It'll explode, leaving us all to ponder wheather or not it is actually Depression/storm.


lol.i have seen it happen before thats why i say that. the moisture content is increasing as the upper level winds begin to decrease.
Actually there likely will be some refiring of the convection soon.If you look at the zoomed visible satellite,you can see outflow boundaries racing NW away from the convection torwards the Yucatan.They'll set off some more storms soon.
yea kris thats what i was pointing out. the moisture is increasing and you can see convection south of the mid level spin.
...already another June disturbance, possibly tropical, before mid-month,wow! Woe be us...the rest of the season!
Dr. Masters updated his blog he will avhe an update this afternoon
I'm a little disappointed I might not be able to play golf this weekend in south Florida...
76. KRL
This is a cool ani view from Penn State's meteo dept site.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/atlanim8ir.html
000
ABNT20 KNHC 151505
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND PORTIONS
OF CUBA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY AND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE RISING IN THE AREA. THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA HAS BEEN CANCELED.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Based on last week's "Grading the NHC's tropical weather outlook" on Dr. Masters' blog, I would estimate a 20.4% chance of a TD forming by 5:30 am EDT Sunday. This estimate is based on a "medium" categorization of this morning's wording:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Cloudiness and showers over the northwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad and elongated area of low pressure.
Upper-level winds are currently unfavorable for development...but
may become more favorable during the next 48 hours as the system
drifts toward the northwest.


We'll see what the 11:30 wording looks like. I'd love to see a similar review of Dr. Master's predictions since the inception of the blog. He seems less conservative than the NHC folks. That's probably why we wishcasters are drawn to this forum.
I think Dr. Masters is a very, very, patient man.
Drought conditions have become extreme in Western North Carolina.Moderate drought where I live but other parts are in the extreme.Mike Easly have made water restrictions.South Carolina is going to court over North Carolina about North Carolina draining water from the rivers under this drought.
I guess now we can call it "low" language: 2.7% by 11:30 am EDT Sunday.
We'll see what the 11:30 wording looks like. I'd love to see a similar review of Dr. Master's predictions since the inception of the blog. He seems less conservative than the NHC folks. That's probably why we wishcasters are drawn to this forum.


i just posted the 11:30 am outlook.
Thanks. Just responded to it.
how ya feeling Nash?
I guess 94L is gonna die out like 93L.
Hello all, I,m back after a long stint with no communications at all. Whats up in the Trop. Atlantic east of the Islands ? We have had several days of welcome rains, and apparently 2 trop waves going through here at 11 n 61 w. recently. Is the current invest a result of that ??
I hope this "disturbance" disapates. I'd rather play Golf and see the wishcasters dissapointed.
Nope pottery. Near the Yucatan Channel, 20n, 85w.
convectino on the increase
Drak my FIngers are crossed
Thanks, RL3AO, its going to take me a few hours to get current with whats going on.
Posted By: ClearH2OFla at 3:34 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Drak my FIngers are crossed

lol. you want something to develop? IF you do you better hope that trough moves quicker.
i Just know we need the rain in in clearwater
MisterPefect:

Me too, but not for golf, for potato sack races.
The forecasted tracks for the system approaching Cuba, dont seem to mesh with the location of the system ? What are the current steering patterns ??
We need the rain more in Gainesville. KBDI went up 50 points.
does anyone have a link too the spag. models
Hey..Back from a work session; As stated by Dr. Masters, significant development will not happen until the shear relaxes (as predicted) in the Caribbean and GOM. But, all of the other important factors (SST's/moisture/daily convection flare-ups, etc,) are in place...I would expect these two areas to "explode" with activity once the shear relaxes which will probably make for a relatively active season for Late-June/July before the Cape Verde season kicks into full gear in August
Posted By: pottery2 at 3:40 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

The forecasted tracks for the system approaching Cuba, dont seem to mesh with the location of the system ? What are the current steering patterns ??

thats because they aren't updated yet. The current steering would be the upper level trough over South Florida that is moving north which may give way to some development.
Posted By: fldoughboy at 3:41 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

We need the rain more in Gainesville. KBDI went up 50 points.

you will probably get some...

I want to note that the low seems to be slowly as the convection builds around. Although i say that a TD won't form i wouldn't be surprised if one does.
Looks like this "Invest" could be the storm Lake Okeechobee needs as the forecasts show several inches of rain from south of Ocala all the way through to the Keys.
I have a website set up for all South Floridians who need their local forecast and tropical update at Link. It has the latest on Invest 94L and easy-to-understand forecast analysis. I'm just wondering what you think of it.
I have a question for anyone out there. How do you know what the size of an image that you want to place in a post is? i cant figure it out. Thanks.
When looking at maps like the one drakoen posted last, how can one tell what convection is for future reference?
The spaghetti plots are at this link, StormThug.
Link
Max winds (if it develops is 37 knots, which is 43 mph) this will probably be a Barry-type of storm. I think it has to get over the 30-35 knot shear first.
Thanks Drakoen
thanks cchsweatherman
This is a area of disturbed weather being influence by a surface trough and a mid-upper low over cuba... this mid-upper level low enhances thunderstorm activity during the day...and it calms down at night...this is no way tropical. For this to be tropical..we need flare ups at night. There is no circulation right now with this..infact surface pressures are up 2-5mb throughout the area. Now you know why there is more thunderstorm activity. When this mess moves into the SE GOM on Saturday..weak impulses might be thrown NE into florida enhancing rainfall activity. There is a slight chance 1 of these vortmaxs gets better developed before reaching land...but it wont be anything worth mentioning more then a weak tropical low.

Now back to the wishcasting.
Posted By: Srt4Man at 3:46 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

When looking at maps like the one drakoen posted last, how can one tell what convection is for future reference?

all of that convective activity will be moving northward.
What is this weather blog community going to do when the QuikSCAT sattelite incenrates in orbit and no replacement is scheduled? Will we need constant hunter aircraft on patrol to judge shear? Are we doomed? Should I cancel my tee-time this Saturday? What came first, the chicken or the egg?
Link
satellite loop.
scottsvb the convection south of cuba was from dinural max, it has just enhanced over the day.
112. 4Gaia
Go golf man. I was on the way to golf three weeks ago and had a heart attack. Go hit some balls for me.
I wishcast 5" of rain over North Central Florida. Thank you Mother Nature..lol
FYI..Message from one of the FSU mets from seven days ago;

Colleagues,

This is a test of the hurricane message emails.

FORECAST: 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes with 4 of them major (Category 3
or greater).

DISCUSSION: It is likely that these most likely numbers could be one
number too high or 2 numbers too low. In any case, the forecast is for
an above average hurricane season, because of 1) the continuation of
conditions that have been conducive to above-normal Atlantic hurricane
seasons since 1995, and 2) the strong likelihood of either ENSO-neutral or
La Nia conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The two storms so far did more good than harm to Florida. Particularly
Barry which brought many inches of rain to parched areas of Florida, and
seems to have initiated the Florida traditional wet season. I would expect
continued daily rain over much of Florida for much of the time.

NEXT FORECAST: When the next storm forms.


Drakoen are you a Met?
Posted By: scottsvb at 4:02 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Drakoen are you a Met?

why?
Please give the rain to the panhandle of Florida and in Lake Okeechobee. We didn't want ALL the rain in South Florida...

Becareful what you wish for, rain comes with Tornados, Lightning, and Hail... Especailly when large quantities of rain come all at once.
Just asking if your a Met and if so whats your station ID tag. Im a Met.
ummmmm....where's the xtrap model?
Check this out


Link: http://www.thestate.com/living/story/73599.html

Text:

Storm surge
Hurricane junkies flood Web looking for more data, passionate weather talk

By JOEY HOLLEMAN - jholleman@thestate.com

When a hurricane roars to life in the Atlantic this summer, the media will go into saturation mode.

Therell be blaring headlines in newspapers, round-the-clock coverage on The Weather Channel and frenetic reports on cable news channels. For most people, thats more than enough. But the hurricane junkies, those who soak up every tropical tidbit, turn to the Internet for more.

Hurricanes represent the perfect storm for online fanatics. Satellites and science create an impressive array of graphics. Storms move slowly, allowing time to discuss the possibilities on blogs and message boards. And despite improvements in forecasting, there is still enough unpredictability to make discussion lively.

More importantly, its not some esoteric science project. Hurricanes have critical consequences.

Because of those consequences, however, some experts worry about the influence of hurricane-related Web sites, some of which are put together by people without science credentials. Blogs and message boards are even more troublesome because readers have no idea of the writers expertise.

I hate to sound like a weather snob, but I don't look at any of the weather blogs or bulletin boards, said Mark Malsick, the severe weather meteorologist with the State Climate Office. I had some salty Navy forecasters beat into me early in my career to look at the charts, do your own forecast, and get your forecast out on time. You can literally get vapor locked trying to read what everyone else says about a storm.

Greg Carbone, who teaches climatology courses at the University of South Carolina, worries little about the Webs hurricane-info overload.

In the end, I dont find the private guys dangerous because most folks get their information from very credible sources first, Carbone said. The more curious find their way to these sites for supplemental information.

A quick rundown of some online hurricane resources also sheds light on the kinds of web worlds weather geeks find themselves in during the eye of any storm.

STARTING POINT

Everyone should start with the National Hurricane Center site, www.nhc.noaa.gov. If theres an active tropical system, the pertinent information is easy to find on the home page. You will find the basic information used by all media outlets. The National Hurricane Center is the only source for official hurricane predictions, watches and warnings.

But, as Carbone noted, the National Hurricane Center errs on the side of caution. Thats one reason some hurricane geeks head to other sites.

Of course, the National Hurricane Center has to be cautious. If the forecast cone it uses graphically to display the potential area a storm will hit is wide and prompts too many people to evacuate, that might cost an area millions in tourism. But if it narrowed that area and the storm took an out-of-the-norm track, thousands of lives could be lost.

If a self-proclaimed expert with a Web site is wrong, only pride is at stake. So pay attention to the NHC site and leave when they, and local authorities, recommend leaving.

TRUSTED NAMES

If you cant understand the weather-speak in the National Hurricane Center forecast discussion, try one of the more recognized weather Web sites for explanations in laymans terms. Two of the best are www.wunderground.com and The Weather Channels www.weather.com. Their expert forecasters write easy-to-understand updates.

Wunderground is a hybrid site, once an educational site affiliated with the University of Michigan and now a private site with advertising. The blogs and message boards start with comments from true experts. But readers have no idea about the credentials of people who post responses under screen names like Pure Science and Tazmanian and crackerlogic.

During the discussion in May about whether the National Hurricane Center should have named sub-tropical storm Andrea, one of the seemingly knowledgeable posters mentioned he/she was about to graduate from high school.

Some sites take steps to keep their message boards from getting too far afield from science.

On www.storm2k.org, only members with verified weather knowledge can start message board threads, and there was discussion of limiting who could respond in message boards last year when some writers went overboard.

Perhaps the (site administrators) could set up a specially dedicated forum for those members who are into observing the last one or two frames of satellite loops with a zeal for detail once reserved for the likes of the Zapruder film, and title it Wobble Watching, one sarcastic contributor wrote.

TAKING YOU THERE

On www.hurricanetrack.com, host Mark Sudduth leads what he calls the Hurricane Intercept Research Team, which tries to get in the path of incoming hurricanes. Essentially, its to learn more about hurricanes, but the crew seems to have a little bit of daredevil in them. Visiting this site as a hurricane approaches land is like talking on the phone to a relative who opts to ride out the storm.

Other sites are devoted to storm chasing. If youre fascinated by photos and video of storms, one of the best sites belongs to local storm chaser Jim Reed, who lives in the Midlands during hurricane season and in Kansas during tornado season. Go to www.jimreedphoto.com to see storms as art.

While it is intriguing to view photos and videos on storm chaser sites as a hurricane approaches or has just passed, some might find the discussions on their message boards troubling. After the recent deadly tornado outbreak in Oklahoma, a message board string on one site dealt with ethics. The question: Is it wrong for storm chasers to sound excited as they film a tornado flattening an entire town?

COOL FACTS, GRAPHICS

One reason to visit the non-governmental hurricane sites is their easy-to-understand graphics. Hurricanetrack.com has one that allows you to click on a map and get data on how many miles the center of a storm is from any coastal city.

On www.hurricanecity.com, an interesting component ranks cities by the historical likelihood of their being hit by a hurricane. No city in South Carolina makes the top 50. Based on the sites criteria, tropical systems have impacted Charleston 31 times in 136 years, with direct hits every 11.33 years.

Many of the historical facts can be found on the National Hurricane Center site, but it takes some searching. Other sites make it easy. Two hours after Andrea was named on May 9, for instance, one of the message board regulars at www.storm2k.org listed the dates for the first named storm every season back to 1851.

Graphics showing warmth of the ocean surface moisture and atmospheric moisture also are available on various governmental or university sites. But the volume of graphics on www.atwc.org and www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Tropical/ can be overwhelming.

Some private sites do a good job of pulling all of those together, making them easy to find and offering a little explanation. One graphic-heavy site is thestormtrack.com.

CLOSE TO HOME

As a storm draws close to South Carolina, the local National Weather Service Web sites offer more detailed warnings and information for coastal areas. The two sites that cover the S.C. coast are www.erh.noaa.gov/chs and www.erh.noaa.gov/ilm.

If you want even more local information, check out a new site put together by the National Weather Service and universities in the Carolinas: www.weather.gov/carolinascoast. With a click of the mouse, you can get real-time measures of wind speed, wave height and atmospheric pressure at buoys and along the coast.

Reach Holleman at (803) 771-8366.

Wunderground is a hybrid site, once an educational site affiliated with the University of Michigan and now a private site with advertising. The blogs and message boards start with comments from true experts. But readers have no idea about the credentials of people who post responses under screen names like Pure Science and Tazmanian and crackerlogic.

During the discussion in May about whether the National Hurricane Center should have named sub-tropical storm Andrea, one of the seemingly knowledgeable posters mentioned he/she was about to graduate from high school.


Taz is in the news.....
ummmmm....where's the xtrap model?

The XTRAP is NOT a model.
ummmmm....where's the xtrap model?

LOL...
: WPBHurricane05 cool huh?
The little spin near S Car. seems to be organizing on top of the Gulf Stream. This might give us surf starved Floridians alittle bit.
Posted By: scottsvb at 4:12 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Just asking if your a Met and if so whats your station ID tag. Im a Met.


i am not a meterologist i just know alot about weather :)
...WTG, Taz!!! You made the news!!! What's next Hollywood, stage??? You're on a roll???
Thats funny......
I wonder who the knowledgeable person was during Sub-Tropical Storm Andrea that was graduating from high school.
The XTRAP is NOT a model.


WHAT???...you sure?
convection is still on the increase.
...uuuuuuummm, Taz-could we get an autograph, plz?
i don't like telling people i'm not a meteorologist because i feel like they won't take what i say into consideration. You're pretty lucky.
moonlightcowboy ok


taz
WPB they are right...the experts are the blogs like Masters..but there are alot that the readers think who post up on here where,why.what might happen are just talking nonsense with no credentials whatsoever. People who are Mets usualy wont post on these forums that much due to bad feedback. You dont hear on sports radio athletes calling in after they are bashed by their local sports fans to say his side of it. All in all this is a good place to get up to date info on people getting stuff that alot dont know where to find it.
That article has some good "reality check" points when some of the bloggers here get out of line, or too self-important, but, all in all, most of the better bloggers here are pretty knowledgeable and this is a great forum for learning if you are willing to listen to others, respect their opinions, and do some of your own research so you can provide "educated" amateur comments (or guesses)...
BigfootTAZ.gif

...to think, we've had a weather moviestar in the blog all along! Keep up the good work, Taz!
I don't make decisions about storms based on this blog, I go by the NWS in Miami and the NHC. I also wait for Max Mayfield to say he is preparing for the storm.
Not to be mean or anything Drakoen but you have alot of learning todo as what most you are telling people is not educational. You are wrong on most aspects as I been reading over these last few days. You may love weather and are learning more and more but cause you post alot and want to feel like you want to give people your ideas..they are pretty off.
I didnt mean to sound mean and not bashing you at all..Im sure maybe someday you will be a Met if you go to school for it.
WPB thats the right thing todo...
scottsvb, could you mention some good weather schools, I think FSU in Tallahassee, Florida is a good one.
Posted By: scottsvb at 4:28 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Not to be mean or anything Drakoen but you have alot of learning todo as what most you are telling people is not educational. You are wrong on most aspects as I been reading over these last few days. You may love weather and are learning more and more but cause you post alot and want to feel like you want to give people your ideas..they are pretty off.
I didnt mean to sound mean and not bashing you at all..Im sure maybe someday you will be a Met if you go to school for it.


ouch lol. all i said was the convection there was from dinural max and it turns into this. seems a lot of people are out for me. oh well, maybe i should just stop posting... I don't want to mislead people that was not my intention.
Does anyone else find it ironic that at 8 a.m. it looked like 94L could disappear and by noon, Dr. Masters is talking about it?
IF you are talking about the situation with jphurricane i got confused with what he said.
Drak...Keep posting. Everyone here has different levels of knowledge and interest. It's a BLOG, for Pete sakes. I enjoy the intelligent exchange of ideas. This is a public forum, not a bulletin board for Meteorologists at the NWS.
Posted By: scottsvb at 4:33 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

nah dude..keep posting...

thats ok i prefer to watch from now on, since you are a MET andyou are telling me i don't know anything. i don't want to misguide anyone, or confuse them.
C'mon Drak, toughen up.
Also i would have prefered you write me a message stating how you felt than discussing it with the blog.
Not to be mean or anything, scottsvb; but, you could also brush up on your grammar, typing and tact. Certainly, a successful weatherbug like yourself understands the importance of precise communication skills!

(Your comments to Drakoen would have been better made privately. The paragraph (poorly written) wasn't necessary!)

Scottsvb, if you disagree with Drakoen's posts, why not offer your "meteorological" expertise to the blog?

...and Drakoen, keep posting 'em. Most people here soak things in and draw their own conclusions from the wealth of posts! Thanks, for yours!
152. IKE
scottsvb...are you a met in Vero Beach,Fl..hence the vb after scotts? Where do you work at with your met degree?
153. IKE
Posted By: moonlightcowboy at 11:38 AM CDT on June 15, 2007.
Not to be mean or anything, scottsvb; but, you could also brush up on your grammer, typing and tact. Certainly, a successful weatherbug like yourself understands the importance of precise communication skills!

(Your comments to Drakoen would have been better made privately. The paragraph (poorly written) wasn't necessary!)

Scottsvb, if you disagree with Drakoen's posts, why not offer your "meteorological" expertise to the blog?


He did in reference to 94L.
Well said Chiklit & Cowboy and You hang in there Drak..............Do not be discouraged..
Drak, im a MET also......Man
Eating A
Tunafish Sammish...mmmmm..and keep posting, its opinions from people like you that keeps this place interesting. If i want an offical forcast i know where to go. Now back to my precious lunch.
Posted By: weathermanwannabe at 4:41 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Well said Chiklit & Cowboy and You hang in there Drak..............Do not be discouraged..

i'm done i really can't be bothered. I don't want thsi to grow in Jeff blog.
Chin up..full speed ahead..Drak. We all count .
Scottsvb-Apparently ppl skills didn't come as a package deal w/ your highly self-regarded met degree.

Why do feel it's okay to publicly talk down to other's?

If you're looking for admiration from the 'WU blog crew' you should def. start out on a new tack.
Taz is a MET, too...A N D famous for it!!!!!! lol

(Much respect, Taz!)
people people come on now whats get back to 94L Please i this want to show you that little story too you NOT to trun this in to a fight so what get back to 94L ok
I'm not a MET but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night...
thaks : moonlightcowboy
I love this blog...I mostly lurk, but what I have learned has been amazing. Drak, Taz, Storm and so many others have been the greatest teachers. If they don't know, they send you a link for you to look for yourself. Where I live in Florida, we don't get local weather. Anything we get is web-based. I can promise you that this blog has been with us through numerous storms and between the bloggers and Dr Masters, we have been VERY well informed.

That being said, thanx Scotsvb, but critical or not, your words were hurtful. I would rather have Drak, who isn't a "met" hanging out with us....he's one of us. So, thanx anyway, and maybe we'll see you on TV one day.
GOES-12 drops a few frames...WV ..Link
cantorefan-ROFL!!!

Way to change up the mood in here. lol
166. IKE
scottsvb..are you gonna answer me?

Where are you employed w/your met degree? I'm not trying to be a smartass...just curious?
Im not a met and stayed in my FEMA trailer last night,..again. LOL.
I don't pay much attention to models, windshear , that's not to say all of the above are not important in forcasting weather and have a major role, what I look for is my personal observation of the weather pattern over the years, I'm 42 and lived in Grand Cayman all my life. When ever I see a persistent weather pattern here is Grand Cayman like how it has been for the last 3 days during hurricane season about 75% of the time the system goes onto to get a name regardless of what the models or upper levels winds suggest. Watch and see.I'm far from being a weather expert, I just go by my personal observations over the years.Many times I'm wrong, but many times I'm right also.
171. 4Gaia
LOL Num1fan!!
*snip*
Hey, bubba met! I'll read as I please, and I'll spam you each time I see your name!!! If you don't like the heat, stay out of the kitchen, bubba met!
wunderyakuza to the rescue...
175. 900MB
Mark it down...36 hours and you'll see something impressive coming into the gulf..Oil prices up $10 barrel next week.
Any guesses what we'd be paying per gallon with a real Cat 1 or Cat 2 in the Gulf...I'm guessing $6. Ouch!
Wunderground is a hybrid site, once an educational site affiliated with the University of Michigan and now a private site with advertising. The blogs and message boards start with comments from true experts. But readers have no idea about the credentials of people who post responses under screen names like Pure Science and Tazmanian and crackerlogic.

I would have to agree with the author of this article in that regard.
Patrap...funny but on the other hand I'm sorry man, that's horrible!
scott...you got mail
Taz...after all this time...I never knew....I'm proud of you....*APPLAUSE*

cantoriefan - ROTFLMAO

seminolefan - excellent POINT

Patrap - I apologize - I should have mentioned you too.....you have taught me sooooo much as well.
no need for that..thanks anyway. Im more of a er..I dont know. LOL
hi is that big blob below cuba part of 94l and will it go over cuba if so thats not where the model track is showing confused here
182. 4Gaia
If the experts were right 100% of the time these blogs would not exist. Besides the local news stations almost always spin the weather to make it sound like the storm is headed directly at their viewership. As far as television goes, it's all about ratings.
I have been out of my office could someone tell me what is going on with our "system" going to become anything??
hi is that big blob below cuba part of 94l

That is part of 94L, convection that is being sheared off.
Rules?..shucks...What rules?

Link
thanks ladyweatherbug
187. IKE
I'm no met...enjoy the tropical Atlantic in my spare time.

scottsvb...yeah..you probably should have sent a private message to DRAK...or expressed it in a toned down manner...oh well, you live and learn.

I will say this...there are a few on here that wishcast a storm to where they live. You can tell by their responses...especially when it's obvious it's not going to where they live or isn't forecasted to.

I wishcasted Barry to the panhandle of Florida...where I live because it's been drought conditions and we needed the rain.

Systems will do what they do...no matter how much we hope for the thrill or excitement of a storm.
94L seems to be idling in Neutral..and waiting for time..Link
Hi everyone

The area just over and above the Caymans looks more impressive than 94L ever did. I guess its back to the waiting game for a while.
Anytime Taz....hugz Patrap....

900MB - based on what Dr Masters posted and what I see on the wind map, I don't think that our blob will gain strength in the Gulf due to wind shear.

I am anxiously awaiting anyone else's viewpoint.
Cool Taz ... you picked a cool name and got notice :-)
ema - the only model that shows anything right now is the NOGAPS, and a very weak system at best (this also shows how "red hot" the Gulf has gotton, as Taz would say).
i will keep posting here but i won't give any input or thoughts on anything... that will be hard, but i know i can do it. I have just noticing this trend lately that people want to attack me randomly and have no thoughts about speaking to me privately. Then i look like the bad guy when i try to defend myself. Like IKE said, you live and you learn
According to TWC, it's got basically no chance for development.
That's right IKE; the beauty of this topic is the unpredictability in spite of all of the science...We are mostly worshippers, and observers, of the awesome and upredictable, power of "tropical" Mother Nature....What that being said, where is the exact location of the low that may develop (that small swirl between the tip of Cuba and the Yucatan?)....If it is, it will to develop some convection around the core once the shear dies down as it moves into the lower Gulf....
drakoen i for one enjoy reading your thoughts and opions please dont quit i find them interesting
Can I hear an "Amen?"


...and let's get back to our regularly scheduled wishcast, please!
: strangesights thanks
Yeah Drak, I've learned that if ya post too often the trolls see ya as a point of attack.

I'm at the point now where I normally post in the early am or late pm to avoid them.
Miami

I replied.
where is the blob south of cuba going . thanks
Posted By: ladyweatherbug at 4:52 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Taz...after all this time...I never knew....I'm proud of you....*APPLAUSE


Why are you contratulating Taz for this? It was a negative comment by the author of that article. Bascially the author states that information is reported by professionals but then users on the blog confound it and make a mockery of weather knowledge with their responses. I would be insulted if I were those three the article mentioned. And to add further insult, the author targeted those three names to warn visitors of this site not to engage in intelligent weather conversations with those mentioned. Notice the author uses the term "once an educational site", that means the site now, with its incorporation and advertising agenda, is thought for naught and uneducational. I'm sorry, but I would be PO'ed if I were Taz, WU's admins and anyone else who loves this site.

Posted By: seminolesfan at 5:06 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Yeah Drak, I've learned that if ya post too often the trolls see ya as a point of attack.

I'm at the point now where I normally post in the early am or late pm to avoid them.

LOL
I for 1 like Taz comments.. but your right the author posted that to bash the people in the message boards.
ya evere one fighting overe me they most all love me if they are fighting overe me weeeeeee
1 more vote for Drak !
does anyone know if we will be having bad storms in the Miami area again today? Also, any thoughts on rainfall in south florida for the weekend? sorta hoping that father's day is not a wash out...
drakon canwe get some arrows on that map to show us the direction this blob below cuba is going to take like you did yesterday thanks . do you think that might relocate the postion on 94l further east with the blob or...
Taz the man!
Posted By: stormybil at 5:16 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

drakon canwe get some hours on that map to show us the direction this blob below cuba is going to take like you did yesterday thanks . do you think that might relocate the postion on 94l further east with the blob or...


I'd prefer to leave that to someone else...
Miami

u have mail
ok drak but if this blob goes north and gets in the fla. straghts can it still gain more stenth . or is sheer to high there
you can always use the new model runs when they come out to show you...
the CMC 12z at 850mb shows the system right over South Florida
But readers have no idea about the credentials of people who post responses under screen names like Pure Science and Tazmanian and crackerlogic.

That's why I never post on this site anymore. I am a paying member for over a year and I am tired of the bickering and non-sense. We have lost a lot of good posters over the last couple of years. Taz you should post on your own blog and stop trying to make people pay attention to you. And others should stop egging him on. I am defiantly not going to renew my membership because I might as well view it free w/ ads than pay to see goofiness faster w/out ads. I think if you post you should have in your about you section your education level and where your from. I notice all these people who want storms to come their way live near the landfall area. But when I click on some poster's names there is nothing on their page...location etc......And you can tell the people who don't have any degree in met argue and post from 6am to 6pm literally, look at the time frames. I will stop before I become part of the problem.
come on drak....snap out of it...who gives a henfart what other people think...if you're enjoying yourself...stay and play the weather game..
That blob is in a trough of low pressure extending from the bahamas thru the Fla straits across Cuba down to Belieze. Its a convergence zone of S and SE winds to the south of the trough and light ENE to the north. This T-Storm activity is being enhanced by the mid-upper low over the western tip of Cuba.. tonight the activity will die off. By tomorrow the trough will move into the SE GOM..by then conditions might be favorible for a possible development..but probably not until Sunday as vortex maxs spin off to the NE across florida. Recon might be sent out again Sunday if needed.
Good afternoon....

Convection down there remains very disorganized and nothing seems to be developing as pressures have gone up.As Dr.Masters stated any development down there would be slow but in my opinion the chances are slim anything gets going.Adrian

Hope we can fix the blog cause its very stretched.
229. FLBoy
Link

All the Canadian is showing is a trough over SFL in 24 hours.
what is this area in the SE altantic 7n 33w.? the area is under 5-10 knots. there seems to be a little spin with this system.
I don't really think that the CMC shows a tropical system; I always look at SLP first to see if there is an actual surface low; vorticity all too often shows stuff that is not surface based (850 mb is not quite at the surface, around 1 mile above). Also, in that frame, you can see that it is elongated, suggesting a trough and not a well-defined low (and asymmetric, suggesting frontal properties; the cyclone phase diagram should show what it is - if it is even a surface feature since otherwise it will have nothing).
Posted By: stormchaser77 at 5:28 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

CMC Has Really Been Fickle With This System
The Last Few Days. Im Still Getting Ribbed For
Using The CMC From 2 Days Ago To Back My
Prediction For a Mild Tropical Storm.

Im Taking a Poll.... Does 94l Look More Dubious
Than Barry?

yea it does sorta.
i cant tell where 94l is but i know where the blob is its looking good at this hour is it going to go due north .
Posted By: MichaelSTL at 5:30 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

I don't really think that the CMC shows a tropical system; I always look at SLP first to see if there is an actual surface low; vorticity all too often shows stuff that is not surface based (850 mb is not quite at the surface, around 1 mile above). Also, in that frame, you can see that it is elongated, suggesting a trough and not a well-defined low (and asymmetric, suggesting frontal properties; the cyclone phase diagram should show what it is - if it is even a surface feature since otherwise it will have nothing).


Let me look aat teh SLP again.do you have the cyclone phase diagram?
scottsvb - you have mail.
Folks can we work on fixing the blog???
I was jsut saying that what ever is in the Caribbean looks to be moving over South Florida. At least the moisture.
INTERESTING! Extreme Heat Possible.
we want arrows we want arrows it fun donT care what othes think if it right or wrong . it will help alot of newbies during this season . and may save lives . so PLEASE BRING BACK THE MAP WITH ARROWS THANKS
It isn't out yet but I don't think it is going to show much since it doesn't really look like anything on the SLP and vorticity maps (anything meaning a surface based low). It clearly does develop into a surface system after crossing Florida, but based on past runs it would be extratropical by then.
tampaJoe...I view the wishcasters who live near the coast sort of like Tony Montana after the Columbians hit him with a dozen shots. He was screaming at them to shoot him some more. They're a little bent from the pain of being hit so much. Also there is the fact that tropical systems, accompanied by moderate winds which was once the norm, brings the necessary moisture for thriving in these areas.
Anyone else having trouble getting the SSD loops to run?
the UKMET 12z basically showing the same thing as the CMC.
Hello Everyone, How are ya'll doin' today?
Taz, what do you think, man? "Chantal" or not this time with 94L?

-- btw, Taz, YOU RULE!!!
Posted By: HurricaneFCast at 5:40 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Hello Everyone, How are ya'll doin' today?


okay...
Hurricanefcast we need the 12z run.
Anyone else having trouble getting the SSD loops to run?

It might be because they upgraded the Java used for the loops and you need to update the Java software on your computer; I know that the NWS radars had an upgrade a while ago and a software upgrade was necessary to properly use them.
: moonlightcowboy may be not this time with 94L may be with 95L when and if we do see 95L
Personally, just glad to see inflation is under control. Gas won't hit $4 before July, unless of course the blob below Cuba becomes a depression.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070615/economy.html?.v=18
If anything does develop..it will get pushed across the bahamas and towards berumda and the open waters. S florida should get some good rainfall though.
These instructions may help, if the SSD loops had the same upgrades.
Got it scottsvb - you have mail again.
Okay, thanks Taz! You're probably right! We'll see how it plays out soon!
I think we better be watching the two circs over NC and TX they have the potential and are both moving toward warm SSTs.
NHC 2:05PM Discussion...

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NW CARIB N OF 18N GENIALLY BETWEEN 76W-85W...WHICH INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION. THE SFC BOUNDARY IS
ANALYZED FROM HONDURAS TO THE SE GULF ALONG 14N87W 21N87W
25N83W. AN ILL-DEFINED 1009 MB LOW SITS ON THE TROUGH IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W. ALL OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS/
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE SFC TROUGH...MORE IN LINE
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG AND E OF THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY. NWP MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY PRESSING
TO THE NW AFFECTING THE YUCATAN AND PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF THIS
WEEKEND.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AFFECTING A LARGE PORTION OF THE
NW CARIB N OF 18N GENIALLY BETWEEN 76W-85W...WHICH INCLUDES
NEARLY ALL OF THE ISLAND OF CUBA. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED
WITH DEEP LAYER TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION. THE SFC BOUNDARY IS
ANALYZED FROM HONDURAS TO THE SE GULF ALONG 14N87W 21N87W
25N83W. AN ILL-DEFINED 1009 MB LOW SITS ON THE TROUGH IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W. ALL OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS/
CONVECTION IS LOCATED TO THE E OF THE SFC TROUGH...MORE IN LINE
WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG AND E OF THE UPPER LOW.
OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY. NWP MODELS SHOW THIS MOISTURE PLUME SLOWLY PRESSING
TO THE NW AFFECTING THE YUCATAN AND PORTIONS OF THE SE GULF THIS
WEEKEND.
Thanks STL!
WHATEVER THAT MEANS our blob i guess
we call it 94l is getting some purples in the middle check it out .
Yes Gulf I posted something very simular to the NHC at 525GMT.
Folks need to look at the blog before you post something so it would get posted several times.

The caribbean area remains very disorganzed and most of the convection to the south cuba is being caused still by the ULL in the vicinity.I just dont see it down there and from the looks of it the heavy precip that was forcasted for florida may slip by to the south which is not good news as we could still use much more rain over the lake and other areas across florida.Adrian
Public Information Statement
Statement as of 12:37 PM EDT on June 15, 2007


... Lincoln County survey indicates microburt...

The Greenville-Spartanburg office of the National Weather Service
completed its survey of damage caused by thunderstorms Wednesday
evening in Lincoln County North Carolina. The survey indicated that the
damage was caused by microburst winds of 65 to 70 mph. This is
based on the divergent damage pattern and the debris field.

Since the storms moved from the northeast to the southwest... which
is unusual for the Summer months... the pattern is unusual for the
North Carolina Piedmont. If additional information is required
..please contact Vince dicarlo at 864-848-9970 x 223.


hurricane23 is correct.
the convection is getting stronger!

is it?
275. FLBoy
12Z CMC MSLP analysis.
276. FLBoy
scottsvb is correct that h23 is correct.
FLBoy is correct that scottsvb is correct about h23 being correct.
nash said:
Barry was an odd TS considering there was literally no wind associated with the center of circulation. The winds came on the backside of the system long after it passed Tampa.


Not true. Barry had sustained winds well into the 40's from the south and SW as it brushed by Sarasota and Bradenton beaches. Surprisingly also had some surge from these winds and this pushed water over 200 yards up the beach all the way to the pavilion. Here's the video to prove it:
Siesta beach 6/2 - wind from south

Siesta beach 6/2 late morning - wind from SW
Take a look at my new blog it has a tropical development competition that we can compete in and then at the end of the season we can say that so and so is the most accurate hurricane hunter out there
Link
WAVCIS 60 hour GOM Wind model..Link
do you guys think that rain will make it to south florida or will it go south?
...of course, Adrian is correct! I'm quite sure he verified the info with Taz!

...Adrian and Taz, BOTH rock!!!

(but, I'm not sure about FLBoy...it seems like he might know what he's talking about. We'll see!!!)-and we know SFan is always right, too!

...lol, outta here for now. Have a GR8 afternoon!
286. FLBoy
moonlightcowboy....LOL
Thanks for the help STL! Must just be an Internet Explorer thing! Opened it up in firefox and it works fine!
Posted By: southbeachdude at 6:15 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

do you guys think that rain will make it to south florida or will it go south?


it should move into South Florida...
the NOGAPS 12z run shows the moisture from the Caribbean in South Florida. Basically all of the models are showing a South Florida event. should be interesting.
And no i'm not gonna let anyone stop me from puttin gmyinput on things... :)
the NOGAPS has a weak Low moving though south Florida in aboyut the same time frame as the other models
Posted By: NorthxCakalaky at 6:01 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Public Information Statement
Statement as of 12:37 PM EDT on June 15, 2007


... Lincoln County survey indicates microburt...

The Greenville-Spartanburg office of the National Weather Service
completed its survey of damage caused by thunderstorms Wednesday
evening in Lincoln County North Carolina. The survey indicated that the
damage was caused by microburst winds of 65 to 70 mph. This is
based on the divergent damage pattern and the debris field.

Since the storms moved from the northeast to the southwest... which
is unusual for the Summer months... the pattern is unusual for the
North Carolina Piedmont. If additional information is required
..please contact Vince dicarlo at 864-848-9970 x 223.


This is my NWS office I am surprised to see it on a tropical weather blog.

Spicey
Drak, for 12z all i've seen out is the cmc and the ngp.
296. srada
Posted By: Drakoen at 6:24 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

the NOGAPS 12z run shows the moisture from the Caribbean in South Florida. Basically all of the models are showing a South Florida event. should be interesting.


Hi Drakoen,

Can you post the models?
Thanks
wave in se atlantic,looking a bit impressive

Winds however are from the SE showing that a low is forming at the surface should be an interesting night
I do not by the GFDL forcast with a hurricane landfall in the carolina's.The GFDL has a history of over doing things sometimes.

fff
models
Link
Posted By: hurricane23 at 6:37 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

I do not by the GFDL forcast with a hurricane landfall in the carolina's.The GFDL has a history of over doing things sometimes.

the 12z hasn't come yet, right?
Yes,it does typically overdo developing systems.
i don't know what happened but the UKMET 12z was on the site and now its was gone. the UKMET showed the same thing as the CMC. elongated area attached to a weak low pressure.
there you go drak, if someone does not want to listen, they don't have to but as long as you are not hurting someone on purpose, you should not allow others to affect your actions. it is my opinion that we should all be allowed to share without being attacked, as we all have points to offer! so draw away and share! jo
307. srada
Thanks Drakoen!
It's a public blog Dak! I woulden't let it get to you! If Dr. Masters wanted only MET's in here you would need certification to get in. A bunch of semi-knowledgeable adults, umm, and teenagers can come to a pretty good conclusion if you work together. The problems come when the ego's come. Most successful study groups have a wide varitey of views and personalities and all should be looked at equally and determinations made from the sum.
If a low could form under all that convection,things will get alot more interesting.
310. srada
Posted By: hurricane23 at 6:37 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

I do not by the GFDL forcast with a hurricane landfall in the carolina's.The GFDL has a history of over doing things sometimes.


Hi hurricane23,

Is that what the GFDL is forcasting with the 94L?
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer at 6:44 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

It's a public blog Dak! I woulden't let it get to you! If Dr. Masters wanted only MET's in here you would need certification to get in. A bunch of semi-knowledgeable adults, umm, and teenagers can come to a pretty good conclusion if you work together. The problems come when the ego's come. Most successful study groups have a wide varitey of views and personalities and all should be looked at equally and determinations made from the sum.


lol. I just wish that he would have been more adult in handling the situation thats what got me pissed of the most.
Yes,that's what the GFDL is forecasting.
damn paint won't open up...
curious, do you think that elongation in the UKMET 12z is happening because it's being pulled apart by the L backing away?
It looks very healthy at this point will see if a low can form overnight
wave in se atlantic,looking a bit impressive

pic
Hey!LOL,I just read back a few articles and saw that news story Taz posted.WU and Taz got some recognition,LOL.
two things the blob below cuba is getting a nice round shape might be stsrting to get more compact
and the new blob by the bahammas is getting good looking whats up with that one . getting interesting now at this hour .
heres my thoughts any expert. Expert comments please...
stormchaser isn't that because its the 0Z run?
I think that big blowup of intense convection could induce the formation of a low pressure under it.There's currently no well-defined low with the system at all,which increases the chances of that happening.Something could form,but I don't think we'll see Chantal.
324. FLBoy
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
223 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WANING
TUTT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH 42-48 HRS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
WESTERN CUBA TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. AT LOW LEVELS
A TROUGH EXTEND FROM GUATEMALA TO WESTERN CUBA/NORTHWEST BAHAMAS.
THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH 48-54 HRS...THEN
MOVE WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO-YUCATAN-NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
BY 60-72 HRS. THE INVERTED TROUGH PATTERN SUPPORTS THE ADVECTION
OF ITCZ MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN...WITH STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE CAYMAN
ISLES-CENTRAL/WESTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. THE MODELS SHOW
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE ADVECTIVE PATTERN THROUGH 72-84 HRS AS IT
RELOCATES OVER THE YUCATAN.
the pressure has stopped rising at the surface its just steady now at 29.88in.
thanks for the arowws drak great . looks like all the heavy weather is on the east side again so if it takes that track so. fla will get very heavy weather on sat and sun . looks like barry all over again hehe
That's the normal diurnal pattern.
Posted By: stormybil at 7:02 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

thanks for the arowws drak great . looks like all the heavy weather is on the east side again so if it takes that track so. fla will get very heavy weather on sat and sun . looks like barry all over again hehe

at this point it looks to be the most likely track.
weatherboykris aren't you a MET?
331. srada
Drakoen,

What you you think after Flordia? Will it become stronger, head for the carolinas..??

Thanks
qestion will it go thru the channel and have a chance to form or will it go north over cuba get weak then have a chance to form in the fla. straights then to so fla any ideas
Zooming in and rocking the loop it looks like a possible center is just WSW of the convective burst - 85w 18 n or just on the border of the V created by the Yucatan and Honduras. Or just a tad SE of the initial point in the projection Dr. M posted above.
Here is my guess

ignore the times I will guess on that later once it forms
Incidentally, it appears the frontal boundary passed over the Buoy that would explain the upsurge in pressure the winds should come around and the pressure should start really dropping again.
If one looks very closely at the GOM IR..a larger scale surface circulation is becoming evident in the Se Gom..above the Cuban Nw coastline

Link
Posted By: srada at 7:06 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Drakoen,

What you you think after Flordia? Will it become stronger, head for the carolinas..??

Thanks

possibly
Afternoon all, hope everyone is well ☺

JF, I was just looking at that. Have been away from the pc for a while now. I think the models are all still hinting at two areas of interest. The one you mentioned, and the one causing the big blow up near Cuba. Will be interesting to see if that southern one develops. Don't think the Cuba area will as it will be getting pulled to the E and N fairly quickly.
340. MZT
You really need to let the GFDL have a couple of runs of data, before looking closely at it's forecasts several days out. It's a good model, but not this early in the game.
What do you think of my forecast I could use criticism as I am going to be going to collage to be a meteorologist I need to be good at this stuff I don't care what you say
I see what you are talking about JFlorida and it seems to me moving towards the convection.
Posted By: Thundercloud01221991 at 7:14 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

What do you think of my forecast I could use criticism as I am going to be going to collage to be a meteorologist I need to be good at this stuff I don't care what you say


lol. hmmm. Looking at the current model and the surface i would say a South Florida rain even than anything.
Thundercloud...in my humble opinion your forecast is too far into the GOM...should only skirt southern Florida, then ENE.
I see a small , what looks like, surface circulation
pressure is now dropping at the surface. buoy 42056 shows a pressure drop.
Drak,

The map you put up with your L looks correct... If you look at the latest Water Vapor, you can actually see on the last frame the convection pop up just a BIT more near the low!
Posted By: Thundercloud01221991 at 7:18 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

I see a small , what looks like, surface circulation

yea thats what i see as well. We need the QuickSat though...
this is confusing i am guess there is a mid level low and a SFC low. and they are very near each other.
Drakoen, re: some earlier posts - It does not matter , to most people, whether you are a qualified Met or not. Knowlege does not only come from having a degree . I have been a potter for 20 years with no " formal " training at all. I know more about clay than many degreed potters I meet. You keep interested in what you do, you will be fine. In the meantime, ignore the froth.......
so if the pressure is falling that means its trying to get its act together and is getting stronger right ?? and dark yes i go with your track but how strong you think it going to get before it get to so fla . ?
How about this one

Its not that much to look at I guess actually the convection in the loop is building in a W direction so perhaps something will form between the two. Wind direction should shift around to 270 degrees and pressure needs to drop at the buoy.
ignore wind speeds
Posted By: stormybil at 7:23 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

so if the pressure is falling that means its trying to get its act together and is getting stronger right ?? and dark yes i go with your track but how strong you think it going to get . ?


hard to tell at this point. Pressure falling means that there is something going on at the Surface. However in order for me to believe this sytem is anything i need to see the convection persist throughout the night hours.
hey guys........tose last two pics...kind of small...mind making them just a tad bigger please
JFlorida, the pressure is dropping at the buoy. Thundercloud, but it just South of the Lake and i think you have it.
Click and drag them to the address bar they should be larger
i want more rain! ultra high performance summer tires FTW :D
psst....tc..that was sarcasm..they're stretching the page........
seeing good convergence
and divergence.
Shift the W to about 85 w I know its Waaaayyy over there but look at that area.
Posted By: stormybil at 7:23 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

so if the pressure is falling that means its trying to get its act together and is getting stronger right ??


need to see what the pressure does in the next few hours before making any conclusions at this point. A series of pressure drops in the area would suggest the system is getting its act together, though.
yea theringo i noticed that as well but i wanted to be sure first before saying anything.
Pressure has been coming up or steady most of the day at that buoy most of the day. In the last our it has dropped a little, but pressures normally drop in the afternoon anyway. Not to mention I think the area JF is looking at which is further away from this buoy is where anything would form if it did.
And maybe a little N JF? Almost on the Yucatan coast? I sure wish the navy imagery did not jump around so much.
can you guys checkout the blob by the bahammas and fill us in it too is lokking good at this hour any ideas if it forms where will it go and how will it effect 94l ?
3rd time is a charm

If this goes the pressure would REALLY drop and the convection would be HIGH and unmistakably near a circ center. We would not even be discussing it -- it would be so obvious. The surface winds would also make it obviousand be a lot stronger.
i agree with stormjunkie. We need to see the pressure contually drop into the over night hours.
that blob in the bahamas is the ull that pulled away, imo. It will probably keep going with the jet that's moving north.
TC, it is unlikely that a system will form that far E out of this. That area will get pulled out to sea over the next 24hrs or so.

Posted By: stormchaser77 at 7:32 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.

Pressures could not be rising with such
Intense Cloud Tops Building.

they are dropping somewhat.
Sorry SJ - with the shear (which has been dropping in the area) perhaps some north and w too but not too far. Look at the WV and zoom in.
That 3mb pressure drop is 1 1/2 hrs old... It could be even more by now.
We foks here in TEXAS dont need no rain. Hope Fla gets some.
I think this is the area JF is talking about we will have to see what happens. The convection needs to persist.
77, you are in the wrong area. That area S of Cuba will get pulled N and out to sea rapidly. The area of interest, is over by the Yuc and does not look impressive at all right now. Look at the latest surface map.
Is it starting to spin now?
It seems to be exploding, but that may be due to day time heating, thus it might not be very tropical. They usually grow at night.
I was just throwing that out there JF, I am on board with your thinking, but it is just hard to identify exactly what is going on over there right now.
Yea the winds are swinging around a tiny bit if it is that far west and more north they should go to something more like zero or three hundred and something degrees.
i thought daytime heating only affects systems over land...
Posted By: stormchaser77 at 7:38 PM GMT on June 15, 2007.
thundercloud01221991 .... The Last one most likely will
be right on. I totally Agree.


Y'all look at the surface map. The low is way west of that area.
new blog
winds in cozumel are from the N.
Also there are some areas down more south near the frontal boundary, near the coast of Honduras that are looking interesting. This early on they always are a mess like this.
yea the low is in the NW Caribbean
I have 77, and after looking at WV, visable, IR from several sights at several zoom levels, it looks like the area that has the most potential to truly develop is W of the convection under Cuba not the convection under Cuba. I want to see the next model runs and surface map, but you can not very well argue the surface maps or the first 12hrs or so of the model runs. They really have a lot more data available then we do.
SJ Please go look at this link and zoom in on the mass of clouds. If you watch close enough you will see rotation and that my friend is what ever one is talking about.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
000
FXUS62 KMFL 151827
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
227 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2007

.DISCUSSION...BIG DIFFERENCES IN 12Z MODEL RUNS CONSIDERING DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTH AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN DECISION
IN GOING CLOSER TO THE ENSEMBLE RUN. THE GFS NOW HAS A SFC LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND MOVING ACROSS S FLA ON
SATURDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NE INTO THE BAHAMAS BY
SUNDAY. EITHER SCENARIO HAS POPS ALL OVER THE PLACE FROM MAV AND
MET GUIDANCE. THIS ANOTHER REASON TO GO WITH THE ENSEMBLE. WHEREAS
THE GFS SHOWS THIS SFC LOW, THE NAM HOWEVER SHOWS A COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
BUILDING INTO THE SE GOFMEX WHICH PUSHES THE TROPICAL BOUNDARY
NORTHWARD WHILE THE UPPER LOW OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MOVES
FARTHER AWAY INTO THE N ATLANTIC. WITH THE GFS JUST SHOWING THIS
LOW IN ITS LATEST RUN, HAVE OPTED TO IGNORE THAT IN THE WIND
FIELD. SO IT REALLY DEPENDS ON HOW THIS ALL TRANSPIRES AS TO HOW
MUCH PRECIP S FLA DEVELOPS. AT ANY RATE, ALL MODELS SHOW A DRYING
TREND TO ENSUE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
Pressures are dropping in the caymans? Are the seas 'turning a funny color' there too? Stormpetrol and Kman will be needing a change of panties soon if that's the case. ;-)