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Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:02 PM GMT on October 15, 2011

In the Western Caribbean, a large area of disturbed weather associated with a low pressure system is bringing heavy rains to Western and Central Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. Moisture from Tropical Depression 12-E, which moved inland near the Mexico/Guatemala border and dissipated on Wednesday, has invigorated this low. Rainfall amounts of 5 - 10 inches have fallen over Central Cuba since October 9, according to radar estimates from the Key West Radar.


Figure 1. Morning radar image from Key West, FL radar.

The low is too large to develop quickly, and is likely to move over the Yucatan Peninsula on Sunday, limiting the potential for development. NHC is giving the system just a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday. Most of the models predict only weak development of the storm, since wind shear is currently a moderate to high 15 - 25 knots, and is expected to be in the moderate to high range over the next three days. The low is likely to move north and then northeast early next week, and cross the west coast of Florida on Tuesday or Wednesday. Rains from the storm are already affecting the Florida Keys, as seen on long-range Key West radar. Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and Western Cuba will see the heaviest rains from the disturbance over the weekend, and extreme South Florida and the Florida Keys could see heavy rains of 3 - 5 inches through Monday.

Another area of disturbed weather over the far Eastern Atlantic, 700 miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, has developed a modest degree of spin, but has very limited heavy thunderstorm activity. NHC is giving this system a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Monday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. SLU
16/1145 UTC 10.4N 39.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic
Quoting whepton3:


That's the BAM(S) right?

Wonder what happens if we kick it up a notch?


Right now the stronger Storm on BAMD goes to North Florida while the weaker BAMS goes to South Florida........So any stronger system heads more North which is 99% generally true with all systems.
Barely 9 am, and already arse-hats like ARMudWeather (excuse my french) are on. Lordy.

Pretty obvious what deck this guy is playing on, just flag and ignore people.
19.1n87.8w, 19.6n88.0w have been re-evaluated&altered for Invest95L's_16Oct_12pmGMT_ATCF
19.0n87.6w, 19.2n87.8w, 19.4n87.9w are now the most recent positions
Starting 15Oct_12pmGMT and ending 16Oct_12pmGMT

The 4 line-segments represent Invest95L's path.

Deriving the travel-speed&heading from the
ATCF coordinates spanning the 6hours between 6amGMT then 12pmGMT :
Invest95L's travel-speed was 2.5mph(4k/h) on a heading of 334.6degrees(NNW)

Copy&paste cme, cpe, tuy, isj, 18.3n86.9w-18.7n87.3w, 18.7n87.3w-19.0n87.6w, 19.0n87.6w-19.2n87.8w, 19.2n87.8w-19.4n87.9w into the GreatCircleMapper for more info

See page9comment409 for the previous mapping (16Oct_6amGMT)
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Barely 9 am, and already arse-hats like ARMudWeather (excuse my french) are on. Lordy.

Pretty obvious what deck this guy is playing on, just flag and ignore people.


Already did every time..........GEESH unreal huh!
Gotta get out of here before some in here drive me nuts......i got everything up and running on the Website........you all have a good day. I will check back in late this evening when it might be more peaceful...........i doubt it tho.....OH GO BUCS!
Quoting TampaSpin:


Right now the stronger Storm on BAMD goes to North Florida while the weaker BAMS goes to South Florida........So any stronger system heads more North which is 99% generally true with all systems.


I didn't even look at the thing close enough... the map had all three... my bad.
Quoting ARMudWeather:
Even if this thing does develop (funny how AWG proponent Neapolitan already thinks it's a TS. Go figure.), it won't come anywhere near America. GOM will feature a series of shortwaves, followed by a one-two punch that will have the loblollies in Georgia shivering.

Nothing to get exciting about here. Maybe a Cuba or Caribbean rainmaker, but coming no where near America.

Next please.

No one is talking about Georgia; you may want to have a look at a map (I can point you at some inexpensive ones, if you'd like). But after a cool night or two later this week, even places such as Valdosta will be in the very seasonable low 80s. I'm not sure at what temp loblollies begin to shiver, but I doubt it's that one.

BTW, I'm not a proponent, but a realist. Maybe you can pick up a dictionary when you get your map? You know, kind of a two-fer? ;-)
ive stayed up late few nights blogging cyclones. got to do what you got to do. since wrong name is going to be going with the flow i dont see why wrong name can not become a decent cyclone
Hey All, very informative blogging here this morning.
Thanks!
95L just now up on the Navy page.
Quoting ARMudWeather:
Oh, Invest 95. Let me guess. CyberTedy and kmanislander will login shortly after little sleep from being on here the entire night drooling over our large Yucatan system.

Let me guess. They will be vehemently proclaiming this thing is "headed for the FL Panhandle"!

Oh, how predictable this blog can be.

Invest 95 = Dud

Next please...


Quite predictable.

Had the clock going on when the trolls would come out, thanks for verifying my forecast with your 17th post.

Doesn't look like a panhandle event, will be more southern/mid FL peninsula before becoming a major rain event for the eastern seaboard.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hey All, very informative blogging here this morning.
Thanks!
95L just now up on the Navy page.


Lots going on... stands to be an interesting Sunday here.

Don't know if you've seen Crown WX yet, but he's guessing may be some TS watches up tomorrow... maybe not as far N. as you, but sure will be an adventure!
Quoting TampaSpin:











MODELS really CURRENTLY for now are almost in 100% agreement that it gets picked up by the Cold front and moves over Florida.
this is not good for central florida alright, lots of places the ground is still waterlogged , we dont need this one
Hi!!, I living nears to cancun from last night the rain and the wind dont stop this system is over here.
Quoting whepton3:


Lots going on... stands to be an interesting Sunday here.

Don't know if you've seen Crown WX yet, but he's guessing may be some TS watches up tomorrow... maybe not as far N. as you, but sure will be an adventure!

Read that. Great graphics, too. Thanks Whep.

Updated 12z models...

Good Morning...
Hi Wx, Rob from Crown Weather has a nice synopsis of what he thinks is going on with 95L (maybe Rina!). He thinks the system will leave something behind in Western Caribbean. What do you think?
Quoting ARMudWeather:
Even if this thing does develop (funny how AWG proponent Neapolitan already thinks it's a TS. Go figure.), it won't come anywhere near America. GOM will feature a series of shortwaves, followed by a one-two punch that will have the loblollies in Georgia shivering.

Nothing to get exciting about here. Maybe a Cuba or Caribbean rainmaker, but coming no where near America.

Next please.



good luck with that syatement i been trying to drill it in these guys heads that a major record breaking cold was coming to south fla for mid week and they just want to believe they are going to get hit by a hurricane...go figure..
Weather Underground Email Service for Tampa, FL Special Statement as of 5:51 AM EDT on October 16, 2011

...Increasing rain chances expected Monday and Tuesday with some locally heavy rainfall and flooding possible...

Deep tropical moisture will stream into all of west central and southwest Florida later today through Monday. This moisture combined with a weak area of low pressure moving northeast through the eastern Gulf waters and merging with a strong cold front moving in from the northwest will support increasing rain chances across all of west central and southwest Florida Monday through Wednesday...with some locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized higher amounts possible during Monday night and Tuesday.

These heavy rains will increase the potential for some flooding in the typically flood prone areas as well as over eastern Polk and northern Highlands counties which received high rainfall amounts during last weekends heavy rainfall event.

All residents living along rivers and faster flowing streams as well as those who live in flood prone areas should remain alert to any rapid rises in water levels over the next few days...and should seek higher ground if flooding is observed.

In addition to the heavy rains...isolated thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and occasional lightning strikes as well.

Increasing winds and seas over the Gulf waters will also produce hazardous boating conditions through mid week and small craft operators may want to postpone trips into the Gulf.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for further updates on this developing weather situation.

McMichael
Quoting LargoFl:
this is not good for central florida alright, lots of places the ground is still waterlogged , we dont need this one


Yes but keep in mind after generally drought the last few years preceding this year, we could use a little flooding to "balance things out" so to speak. As long as it doesn't become destructive flooding for many many people.
523. ryang
Quoting SLU:
16/1145 UTC 10.4N 39.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic


If not for shear, this might have had a chance of developing before us in the windwards...
Quoting TampaSpin:
Gotta get out of here before some in here drive me nuts......i got everything up and running on the Website........you all have a good day. I will check back in late this evening when it might be more peaceful...........i doubt it tho.....OH GO BUCS!




tampa your bucs are going to get crushed worse then they did last week...it wont be pretty..
Quoting whepton3:


Quite predictable.

Had the clock going on when the trolls would come out, thanks for verifying my forecast with your 17th post.

Doesn't look like a panhandle event, will be more southern/mid FL peninsula before becoming a major rain event for the eastern seaboard.
Wheres the guy with the PLANFALF analysis...that takes every system into Wilmington? This one actually looks real bad for Wilmington.
Oh I see from the overnight models.. WSVN will be eating their words today.. yesterday they said sofla..and fl would not be affected by this storm. Is the thinking a ts?
Quoting TampaFLUSA:
Weather Underground Email Service for Tampa, FL Special Statement as of 5:51 AM EDT on October 16, 2011

...Increasing rain chances expected Monday and Tuesday with some locally heavy rainfall and flooding possible...

Deep tropical moisture will stream into all of west central and southwest Florida later today through Monday. This moisture combined with a weak area of low pressure moving northeast through the eastern Gulf waters and merging with a strong cold front moving in from the northwest will support increasing rain chances across all of west central and southwest Florida Monday through Wednesday...with some locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with localized higher amounts possible during Monday night and Tuesday.

These heavy rains will increase the potential for some flooding in the typically flood prone areas as well as over eastern Polk and northern Highlands counties which received high rainfall amounts during last weekends heavy rainfall event.

All residents living along rivers and faster flowing streams as well as those who live in flood prone areas should remain alert to any rapid rises in water levels over the next few days...and should seek higher ground if flooding is observed.

In addition to the heavy rains...isolated thunderstorms may produce strong gusty winds and occasional lightning strikes as well.

Increasing winds and seas over the Gulf waters will also produce hazardous boating conditions through mid week and small craft operators may want to postpone trips into the Gulf.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your local media for further updates on this developing weather situation.

McMichael


By the way, that 1 to3 inch amount forecast is due to still uncertainties, the potential exists for a lot more rain than that. But, at least 1 to 3 inches, is basically what the deal is.
Just checking in before church and will see Yall tomorrow. Interesting possibility down near Yucatan for a storm. Here's hoping for continued wind sheer to keep it in check cause it looks rather "doomish" at first glance................ :)
Desoto County Florida is still under a flood warning (I think),this is not good news for them!
Goodmorning, 95L reminds me ALOT of Major hurricane Opal of 1995!
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Wx, Rob from Crown Weather has a nice synopsis of what he thinks is going on with 95L (maybe Rina!). He thinks the system will leave something behind in Western Caribbean. What do you think?


Quite possible... given that the front that would push through the FL region next week would stall in the NW to W Carib, but a bit further S than the past one and once gain become a focus for development.

I do believe this could be he last shot at a tropical system at affecting CONUS and any future development would shift to the C Carib region.
Quoting daveron:



good luck with that syatement i been trying to drill it in these guys heads that a major record breaking cold was coming to south fla for mid week and they just want to believe they are going to get hit by a hurricane...go figure..


Given that all your models that you've been saying would verify now all send it to Florida? Let me guess, you think they're dead wrong now?

It looks like it is under an anti-cyclone but very high sheer between it and Florida at the moment that could prevent any significant development in the long-term.

Link

Gonna be interesting to see what happens over the next 72 hours with it.

Have a Great Day.
looks like a tampa landfall as a Ts is the best bet atm
...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
* AT 9PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...PRIVATE ROADS DOWNSTREAM FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 8.5 FEET ON AUG 27
2004.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SUN MON TUE WED THU

PEACE
BARTOW 8 8.1 SAT 09 PM 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 MSG

$$
It's very interesting that the NAM was the model that was pretty consistant with development over the past few days.

Levi and a few others held tuff with possible development. Everyone else jumped on the GFS's scenerio of no development and a Southern Bay of Champeche low.

hold up guys if all the convection is in the channel shouldnt 95l center be in the channel 12 still shows it over the yucatan
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Given that all your models that you've been saying would verify now all send it to Florida? Let me guess, you think they're dead wrong now?




absolutely terry it wont be the 1st time they been wrong this year...look i report the weather as i see it im not bias for a hurricane hitting anywhere...if i thought there was a chance for sou fla to get hit by a hurricane i would agree with you but i just dont see it with the cold front passing way south of miami leaving them in brisk north winds until friday...sorry teddy your computers will change it will go into the yucatan and then sw into mexico as the high pushes south...

FGUS52 KMLB 161334
RVDMLB
FLC069-097-117-127-171334-
DAILY RIVER AND LAKE SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE, FL
934 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

.B MLB 1016 DH12/HG
...FORECAST POINTS ON THE MIDDLE ST JOHNS RIVER...
: STATION FLOOD LATEST 24-HR CHANGE
: ID NAME STAGE STAGE DAY TIME 7AM-7AM
:
:ST JOHNS RIVER
GENF1 :ABOVE LAKE HARNEY Flood Stage 8.5; Latest Stage 8.17; Time:SUN 08 AM 0.07
SNFF1 :NEAR SANFORD Flood Stage 6.0; Latest Stage: 3.56; Time: SUN 08 AM 0.11
DLAF1 :NEAR DELAND Flood Stage: 4.2; Latest Stage: 2.60; Time:SUN 08 AM -0.01
ASTF1 :NEAR ASTOR Flood Stage: 2.8; Latest Stage: 1.97; Time:SUN 08 AM -0.08
:
...OTHER RIVER DATA POINTS OF INTEREST...
:WEKIVA RIVER
WEKF1 :NEAR SANFORD: Latest Stage: 3.59; Time:SUN 08 AM -0.16
:
:SHINGLE CREEK
SHIF1 :AT CAMPBELL: Latest Stage: 57.57; Time:SUN 09 AM -0.64
SNCF1 :AT KISSIMMEE AIRPORT: Latest: 7.55 Time:SUN 08 AM -0.33
:
:ST JOHNS RIVER
MELF1 :NEAR MELBOURNE: Latest: 8.04; Time:SUN 09 AM 0.20
COCF1 :NEAR COCOA: Latest: 15.93; Time:SUN 09 AM 0.06
LKJF1 :LAKE JESUP OUTLET: Latest: 4.21; Time:SUN 08 AM 0.16
:
:LITTLE ECONLOCKHATCHEE RIVER
LECF1 :NEAR OVIEDO: Latest: 33.57; Time:SUN 09 AM -0.51
:
.END
:
.A MLB 1016 DH12/QR
...ST JOHNS RIVER CONTROL DISCHARGE STRUCTURE...
:
: OBSERVED 24 HOUR
: DISCHARGE CHANGE
: (CF/S)
:
COAF1 :12W COCOA: M.: M.
.END

$$

[top]
000
SRUS42 KTAE 161330
RRMTAE

:SHEF ENCODED 6 MINUTE NOS WATER LEVEL DATA (NAVD88 DATUM)
:SOURCE - NATIONAL WATER LEVEL OBSERVATION NETWORK (NWLON)
:DATA CONVERTED FROM MLLW IN FEET TO ZERO FEET NAVD88
:BY WFO TALLAHASSEE

.A APCF1 20111016 Z DH1306/HAIRG 0.38
.A APCF1 20111016 Z DH1312/HAIRG 0.35
.A APCF1 20111016 Z DH1318/HAIRG 0.32
.A CKYF1 20111016 Z DH1300/HAIRG -1.22
.A CKYF1 20111016 Z DH1306/HAIRG -1.27
.A CKYF1 20111016 Z DH1312/HAIRG -1.32
.A PACF1 20111016 Z DH1300/HAIRG 0.00
.A PACF1 20111016 Z DH1306/HAIRG -0.01
.A PACF1 20111016 Z DH1312/HAIRG -0.03

$$
Note data is from last weekend. Florida is a sponge; we can handle a lot of rain here and our flora and fauna depend upon it. Also building codes over the past 20 years have required water mitigation and management, so newer buildings and neighborhoods are not as prone to flooding. If our governor has his way, then those requirements will go out the window and future developments would face less stringent water management practices which means two things: destruction of property in extreme weather events and destruction of flora and fauna due to loss of habitat. This is not progress. Nor is it smart development.
Quoting daveron:



absolutely terry it wont be the 1st time they been wrong this year...look i report the weather as i see it im not bias for a hurricane hitting anywhere...if i thought there was a chance for sou fla to get hit by a hurricane i would agree with you but i just dont see it with the cold front passing way south of miami leaving them in brisk north winds until friday...sorry teddy your computers will change it will go into the yucatan and then sw into mexico as the high pushes south...


Funny enough, you where the one just yesterday saying that the computer models where 100% right and it would go into mexico, now your saying those same models are dead wrong and that your right. Your right though, the models do change. However right now, they're swinging in the favored direction for October. Yucatan then a sharp hook NE.
Quoting chrisdscane:
hold up guys if all the convection is in the channel shouldnt 95l center be in the channel 12 still shows it over the yucatan

If you look closely, the center is over the Yucatan. The convection over the channel is a very fat group rain bands.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

If you look closely, the center is over the Yucatan. The convection over the channel is a very fat group rain bands.
this looks to me almost an exact hurricane wilma track panning out
Quoting daveron:



levi is agrreing with you guys because he knows how bad you want a wilma to hit sou fla...its not that kind of year or setup like 2005 it isnt going to happen guys...you lucky if this gets to tropical depression strength...







I don't think anyone believed a Wilma type scenerio (especially Levi).
Wilma was already a cat 5 before she even approached the Yucatan.

Quoting daveron:



levi is agrreing with you guys because he knows how bad you want a wilma to hit sou fla...its not that kind of year or setup like 2005 it isnt going to happen guys...you lucky if this gets to tropical depression strength...


Now you're reverting to calling us all wanting a FL hit because we disagree with everything you've said.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Funny enough, you where the one just yesterday saying that the computer models where 100% right and it would go into mexico, now your saying those same models are dead wrong and that your right. Your right though, the models do change. However right now, they're swinging in the favored direction for October. Yucatan then a sharp hook NE.



terry just look at the current setup and the steering how can you possibly think a hurricane could hit fla...come on terry you are smarter then that...think..
...no renumber yet?
Quoting Seflhurricane:
this looks to me almost an exact hurricane wilma track panning out



itll proll be a bit more north
12z, NAM at 18 hours

Quoting daveron:



terry just look at the current setup and the steering how can you possibly think a hurricane could hit fla...come on terry you are smarter then that...think..


Terry? Who the heck is Terry? I'm pretty sure its Teddy kid. And for one, where did I say a hurricane would hit Florida? Your putting words in my mouth, you just want to believe I think a hurricane will hit Florida.
539.

Will be quite difficult for the 1020MB Surface High over Georgia to push 95L SW, especially with a strong cold front coming through the Southern Plains.
edit.
Learn to read further Spathy :O)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Terry? Who the heck is Terry? I'm pretty sure its Teddy kid. And for one, where did I say a hurricane would hit Florida? Your putting words in my mouth, you just want to believe I think a hurricane will hit Florida.



its in your back posts teddy just go back and look you dont wat me to pull them...you have been preaching that since friday teddy...come on guys on here saying its a wilma situation what a crock..
Quoting spathy:
Thanks Chicklit

I could only find yesterdays info.
So they dropped the Peace River flood?
I bet it gets reinstated later,(if this pans out)

This is old info from last week spathy.
But we haven't gotten any significant rain here this week, have we?
Here's the Florida site; maybe you can find more recent data: Link
I got to go! Have a nice afternoon; will be interesting to see what happens later on today.
12z, NAM at 24 hours, low moved back offshore.
Quoting daveron:



its in your back posts teddy just go back and look you dont wat me to pull them...you have been preaching that since friday teddy...come on guys on here saying its a wilma situation what a crock..



Okay, pull them up. Lets see them. I don't recall ever saying a HURRICANE would hit FLORIDA. A tropical cyclone, perhaps. I never stated intensity.
sou fla people better get there sweaters out they will need them by thursday morning...
Quoting daveron:



good luck with that syatement i been trying to drill it in these guys heads that a major record breaking cold was coming to south fla for mid week and they just want to believe they are going to get hit by a hurricane...go figure..


You guys have short memories. In 2005, Oct 24th, Cat 3 Wilma was shoved through FL by a *very* strong cold front. I was in Marco Island for the whole thing, and the back side of the eye had bone chilling cold rain. In fact, that night, temps dropped into the upper 50s in S FL.

Not saying 95L going to make Cat 1 status, but could be a TS and easily, even likely, will hit FL as it's pushed out to the NE by the approaching strong front.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
It looks like it is under an anti-cyclone but very high sheer between it and Florida at the moment that could prevent any significant development in the long-term.

Link

Gonna be interesting to see what happens over the next 72 hours with it.

Have a Great Day.
but will be moving with the flow
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
...no renumber yet?
no
Quoting CybrTeddy:



Okay, pull them up. Lets see them. I don't recall ever saying a HURRICANE would hit FLORIDA. A tropical cyclone, perhaps. I never stated intensity.



TC or HURRICANE not much difference you still pegged florida when the computers at that time were all over the yucatan even DR MASTERS..
RECON is not scheduled to fly into this...i dont think recon will ever fly into this ...
Quoting daveron:



TC or HURRICANE not much difference you still pegged florida when the computers at that time were all over the yucatan even DR MASTERS..


And now the computer models are saying this will happen, and there is a huge difference between TC and Hurricane.

A tropical cyclone is a general term of a system from a 25 mph TD to a 190 mph Category 5 hurricane. That's a pretty large range of possibilities I left open, instead of saying a hurricane (75-110) or a major hurricane (115+)
We could see a Tropical System (T.D. or weak T.S.) affecting Florida Tuesday/Wednesday.

But due to interaction with land and a very short amount of time to strengthen, its hard to say if it will have time to develop.
If you go back thru the last 16 seasons to 1995, it looks like most of the TC tracks match up best compared to this season. Now let me be clear, Im not talking about matching all the storms up to the same exact time periods. And yes I know a couple more hit the USA. What stuck out to me was the patterns and how OPAL tracked. Opal looks similar to how 95L will track, IF my very rookie analysis is correct.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
We could see a Tropical System (T.D. or weak T.S.) affecting Florida Tuesday/Wednesday.

But due to interaction with land and a very short amount of time to strengthen, its hard to say if it will have time to develop.



i agree man i was thinking 60mpg lanfall at sarrasota thats just me
Here we go.
This gives a good visual of some of the areas in Florida that dont need(HEAVY) rain any time soon.

12z, NAM at 36 hours, Low has moved westward a bit but not much (looks very similar to 24 hours).
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
We could see a Tropical System (T.D. or weak T.S.) affecting Florida Tuesday/Wednesday.

But due to interaction with land and a very short amount of time to strengthen, its hard to say if it will have time to develop.



the only rain sou fla is going to see is from the cold front on tues and wed...then the dry air envades sou fla unril friday..
What usually happens when a cold front approaches any tropical system? They get pushed or pulled with the steering currents ahead of the front,correct?
Quoting daveron:



TC or HURRICANE not much difference you still pegged florida when the computers at that time were all over the yucatan even DR MASTERS..


Levi32 called this a likely FL hit since Friday and gave very good technical reasons for it on his blog, along with very impressive video version of the synopsis and forecast. He's doing a much better job than Dr M is here with his blog. Go look for yourself.

.... and don't call him a FL hypster! He lives in Alaska!

Quoting overwash12:
What usually happens when a cold front approaches any tropical system? They get pushed or pulled with the steering currents ahead of the front,correct?


pulled NE usually.
NOAA's invest on the right, another tropical wave on the right..

Quoting StormHype:


Levi32 called this a likely FL hit since Friday and gave very good technical reasons for it on his blog, along with very impressive video version of the synopsis and forecast. He's doing a much better job than Dr M is here with his blog. Go look for yourself.

.... and don't call him a FL hypster! He lives in Alaska!





levi has been calling for this to happen since september 25th...he keeps pushing it back and now we are in mid october and it hasnt happened...dr masters has been doing and excellent job this year....
Quoting CybrTeddy:


pulled NE usually.
So,south Fl. is a pretty safe bet on where this system will be headed,or towards Tampa Bay area.
Quoting daveron:




levi has been calling for this to happen since september 25th...he keeps pushing it back and now we are in mid october and it hasnt happened...dr masters has been doing and excellent job this year....


Watch Levi's last two video updates and stop your rhetoric. Educate yourself while I hit the troll button on you.
ASCAT got a good pass of NOAA's invest this morning.. looks to be closing off..little sloppy still.

It's strengthened since lastnight with it's T# back up to 1.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
16/1145 UTC 19.4N 87.7W OVERLAND 95L
16/1145 UTC 10.4N 39.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST
15/1745 UTC 9.7N 34.6W TOO WEAK INVEST

There's no use reasoning with daveron, he wants to believe whatever he wants and won't pull up graphs, charts, data, ect to back up his points. He's more than likely cloudburst on another account, circumnavigating his bans. He reverts to bashing bloggers other forecasting on an amateur site instead of actually pulling up data and looking for himself.
Quoting overwash12:
So,south Fl. is a pretty safe bet on where this system will be headed,or towards Tampa Bay area.
There is no "safe bet" right now. 95L still has to develope.
Quoting overwash12:
So,south Fl. is a pretty safe bet on where this system will be headed,or towards Tampa Bay area.



teddy like i said sou fla will get a few inches of rain but not from no tropical system from the cold front in mid week...
Quoting overwash12:
What usually happens when a cold front approaches any tropical system? They get pushed or pulled with the steering currents ahead of the front,correct?


Yes if the front is south enough to grab it. Also tends to help spin things up too.
wow, 95L really took advantage of DMAX. Organizing good. TS winds... Interesting to see if it can get it's act together some more.
Quoting scott39:
If you go back thru the last 16 seasons to 1995, it looks like most of the TC tracks match up best compared to this season. Now let me be clear, Im not talking about matching all the storms up to the same exact time periods. And yes I know a couple more hit the USA. What stuck out to me was the patterns and how OPAL tracked. Opal looks similar to how 95L will track, IF my very rookie analysis is correct.


Can't see it making it that far north with the big front coming down. Probably between Cedar Key and Naples as a TD or TS with a cold back side.

12z, NAM at 48 hours, secondary low in the GOM.
Quoting overwash12:
So,south Fl. is a pretty safe bet on where this system will be headed,or towards Tampa Bay area.


I like somewhere between just south of Tampa to the Panhandle. Still a bit of uncertainty. May only be part of the storm that comes up that way too.
Quoting spathy:
...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL MONDAY EVENING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR THE PEACE RIVER AT BARTOW
* UNTIL MONDAY EVENING
* AT 9PM SATURDAY THE STAGE WAS 8.1 FEET
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING
* FLOOD STAGE IS 8.0 FEET
* IMPACT...AT 8.0 FEET...PRIVATE ROADS DOWNSTREAM FLOOD
* FLOOD HISTORY...THIS CREST COMPARES TO A PREVIOUS CREST OF 8.5 FEET ON AUG 27
2004.

&&


FLD OBSERVED FORECAST 8AM
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME SUN MON TUE WED THU

PEACE
BARTOW 8 8.1 SAT 09 PM 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 MSG

$$
gee those people are going to be in big trouble if this storm slows down over florida, its a heavy rain maker
Quoting scott39:
There is no "safe bet" right now. 95L still has to develope.
I know,that's why I said system. It may never reach T.S. status!
Quoting Skyepony:


Yes if the front is south enough to grab it. Also tends to help spin things up too.
Does how far W 95L go, depend on how far N it goes towards Fl?
Some of you people take this BLOG way too personal
Quoting Skyepony:


I like somewhere between just south of Tampa to the Panhandle. Still a bit of uncertainty.
Well,It will be fun to watch. However it pans out.
Quoting chrisdscane:
looks like a tampa landfall as a Ts is the best bet atm
not looking good for us around tampa so far, maybe things will change, still days away
I actually think the center of 95L is actually further east around 19.4N/84.8W
Quoting daveron:



teddy like i said sou fla will get a few inches of rain but not from no tropical system from the cold front in mid week...


Local forecasters calling for an estimated 4.5" in the Fort Myers area.
Will it happen? Who knows, but some significant rains are expected.

And I don't know how you can't see the influence of all the tropical moisture.
Quoting overwash12:
Quoting daveron:



no teddy you are wrong again storm w was right about you people you dont value anyones opinion but your own...if you dont agree with you guys you get put on and ignore list...storm w said none of you guys have been right all season...every storm is a fla hit ...well i dont think fla has been hit since wilma so you guys need to pick it up a little and say the facts..the facts are this is going into the yucatan and possibly bend sw as the huge high moves south behind the front...


No, and for the record StormW was a valued blogger on and I respected him a lot. It was sad to see him go. He wouldn't say that about us the entire blog, nor does he have the time to constantly bash us as you make him out to as. Basically, your lying. And also, there have been several FL hits since Wilma. Most noticeably Tropical Storm Fay.. 4 times.
NAM at 57 hours. Low bring heavy rains to North Fl. I'm not sure the Low will get that far north, but who knows?



Comparison with GFS at 57 hours. Very similar.

Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Local forecasters calling for an estimated 4.5" in the Fort Myers area.
Will it happen? Who knows, but some significant rains are expected.

And I don't know how you can't see the influence of all the tropical moisture.


AAAAARRRRRGGGGG!
My poor vegi seedlings have been under assault once already!
Could see 96L soon in the CATL. Even though this will be an out to sea event, will be interesting to see if we can crank out a CATL system this late in the season.. even if its unlikely.
Quoting StormHype:


Can't see it making it that far north with the big front coming down. Probably between Cedar Key and Naples as a TD or TS with a cold back side.

That pattern probaby means nothing. I thought it was interesting and wanted to share with you guys and gals.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Could see 96L soon in the CATL. Even though this will be an out to sea event, will be interesting to see if we can crank out a CATL system this late in the season.. even if its unlikely.
doesnt the euro bring disturbed weather in from the east into the carib beginning of next wk?
Quoting scott39:
Does how far W 95L go, depend on how far N it goes towards Fl?


Partially if it splits or not. Many global models suggest that the whole thing whirls off to the BOC (notice the direction it's moving the last few frames too). 1/2 gets overland as the front comes~ dragging the trough it ate lastnight up toward the panhandle, spinning that up some. Possibly also then dragging the rest toward SFL after.

It's very dynamic still. If it consolidates & stays off land before the front then around Tampa is probably most likely.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Could see 96L soon in the CATL. Even though this will be an out to sea event, will be interesting to see if we can crank out a CATL system this late in the season.. even if its unlikely.


NOAA's Invest is looking good on ASCAT this morning. I think it will really pull it together as it approaches the islands. Around 55W. May turn off North around there too.
I give up with you daveron, cloudburst, or whatever the heck you want to be. And for what its worth, here's what stormw posted about 95L. And also, his last update was on October 14th, the situation with 95L has changed quite rapidly since. Point is, your lying through your teeth.

The current wind shear forecast calls for upper level winds over that area to become a little more conducive, with an upper level anticyclone possibly following this area in tandem%u2026and albeit not optimal, may be enough for further slow development over the next 48-72 hours. Currently, the NHC has assigned a LOW (20%) probability of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Could see 96L soon in the CATL. Even though this will be an out to sea event, will be interesting to see if we can crank out a CATL system this late in the season.. even if its unlikely.
Once again I think the comparisons to the 1995 season and this one are interesting. Pablo in 1995 formed at about 36 W and became a short lived Tropical Storm in October.
Who knows if, when or where, or even what 95L will be a week from now, but if it does hit TB area it will be a strange timing of the last hurricane directly hit Tampa Bay. "1921 storm"

Article about it below:


The storm was observed on October 21 while several hundred miles southwest of Jamaica. Its origin is unknown, though it possibly developed from an extratropical storm over Panama a day earlier. A high pressure system over Bermuda caused a north-northwest motion, allowing for the storm to intensify over favorable conditions. On October 22, the storm attained hurricane status shortly after passing 10 miles (16 km) east of the Swan Islands. On October 23, the hurricane entered the Yucatán Channel, with its eastern side brushing Cuba.
As it turned to the north in the Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane continued to strengthen, and reached a peak of 140 mph (225 km/h) on October 24. It slowly weakened as it headed to the northeast, and made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane near Tarpon Springs, Florida on the 25th with 115 mph (185 km/h) winds.
I am trying to use my "Iggy" button for the first time ever but it takes me here, "ChillinInTheKeys does not have any blog entries". What's up with that?

Tried it on FF & IE.
TRMM missed everything in the Atlantic lastnight.

Quoting spathy:


AAAAARRRRRGGGGG!
My poor vegi seedlings have been under assault once already!


A few days after 92L I peeled back the layer of oak leaves where I'd planted an assortment of root crops.. A good percent had germinated. I've got to get out there to tend all that.
Quoting Skyepony:


Partially if it splits or not. Many global models suggest that the whole thing whirls off to the BOC (notice the direction it's moving the last few frames too). 1/2 gets overland as the front comes~ dragging the trough it ate lastnight up toward the panhandle, spinning that up some. Possibly also then dragging the rest toward SFL after.

It's very dynamic still. If it consolidates & stays off land before the front then around Tampa is probably most likely.
Thanks
Quoting daveron:





well teddy that should tell you that storm w isnt really concerned about this system at all hitting sou fla...he hasnt posted since oct 14 ...dont sound like hes to worried about this teddy boy...
He doesn't normally post on weekends unless there is a hurricane.
Good morning all.

Invest 95L improved in organization significantly last night...and is now very close to tropical storm status. When, and if, if does reach tropical storm statuses, watches will likely go up for Florida, as it appears likely that "Rina" will head towards Florida. All of the models that showed the system moving into the Bay of Campeche were wrong.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
He doesn't normally post on weekends unless there is a hurricane.


Correct, he even posted that he would do an update on Monday. He never posts on weekends unless its an emergency developing system with lives in danger.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct, he even posted that he would do an update on Monday. He never posts on weekends unless its an emergency developing system with lives in danger.
Exactly.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Invest 95L improved in organization significantly last night...and is now very close to tropical storm status. When, and if, if does reach tropical storm statuses, watches will likely go up for Florida, as it appears likely that "Rina" will head towards Florida. All of the models that showed the system moving into the Bay of Campeche were wrong.

to me it appears likely we will see an upgrade either late today or tonight , and as for watches anyone from tampa down to the florida keys needs to monitor very closely but looks to me somewhere between sarasota and ft myers could be the crossing point
621. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Invest 95L improved in organization significantly last night...and is now very close to tropical storm status. When, and if, if does reach tropical storm statuses, watches will likely go up for Florida, as it appears likely that "Rina" will head towards Florida. All of the models that showed the system moving into the Bay of Campeche were wrong.


Morning everyone. Just takeing a look at satelite loops, anyone notice the really really cold cloud tops on 95L? That suggusts to me that MJO may finally be arriving in the Atlantic. Anyone else think this may be happening?
very intrested to see the 2pm TWO
Quoting j2008:

Morning everyone. Just takeing a look at satelite loops, anyone notice the really really cold cloud tops on 95L? That suggusts to me that MJO may finally be arriving in the Atlantic. Anyone else think this may be happening?
MJO is here the whole basin especially the carribean is fired up
619. Serious as in like a major hurricane is about to hit the USA, a developing TS in the Caribbean happens every year. Plus, as I'm sure he told you if you two are ''best friends'', he has a family at home and he likes to spend time with them on weekends. Levi doesn't post updates on Sundays either.
It's here...

Good Morning from South Fla.. thanks everyone for their thoughts on 95L..should be interesting in the coming days..
G'Day
Steve
Quoting Skyepony:


Yes if the front is south enough to grab it. Also tends to help spin things up too.


like a wilma?
Quoting daveron:
yes tropical ana 13 in his words ITS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ...no RECON scheduled to even investigate thats funny kid

I didn't say anything about recon...

What you need to do is take your mouse, go to the top of the page, click "Sign Out", close your browser, get off your computer, and do something productive instead of trying to stir trouble on a weather forum.
Quoting daveron:




yes and now they right because theypoint towards sou fla...you need to have a cup of coffee and wake up ...is it was serious like teddy said storm w would post any time day or night and storm will not post because in his words nothing to it..
Im having a nice cup of coffee and trying to enjoy this blog. Just Chillax and enjoy it with us:)
Quoting j2008:

Morning everyone. Just takeing a look at satelite loops, anyone notice the really really cold cloud tops on 95L? That suggusts to me that MJO may finally be arriving in the Atlantic. Anyone else think this may be happening?

Organization.

And yes, the MJO is buried SOLIDLY into the whole Atlantic basin, Eastern Atlantic and all.
Just a fun cone:

Quoting CybrTeddy:
619. Serious as in like a major hurricane is about to hit the USA, a developing TS in the Caribbean happens every year. Plus, as I'm sure he told you if you two are ''best friends'', he has a family at home and he likes to spend time with them on weekends. Levi doesn't post updates on Sundays either.
Don't waste your breath and risk being banned. Stick to the weather and ignore.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I didn't say anything about recon...

What you need to do is take your mouse, go to the top of the page, click "Sign Out", close your browser, get off your computer, and do something productive instead of trying to stir trouble on a weather forum.
i agree we are having a relaxed discussion and this CHILD is causing trouble
632. If it where to make landfall in Florida it wouldn't do so until later this week, not today. Henceforth, no update from StormW. Whatever, I'm done dealing with you. Your here to stir up trouble and are about as hard headed as a brick wall, so I'm just going to say good day sir.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't waste your breath and risk being banned. Stick to the weather and ignore.
Agreed.. StormW hasnt made a post today either..
Quoting CybrTeddy:
632. If it where to make landfall in Florida it wouldn't do so until later this week, not today. Henceforth, no update from StormW. Whatever, I'm done dealing with you. Your here to stir up trouble and are about as hard headed as a brick wall, so I'm just going to say good day sir.
cyber just relax and ignore this idiot
Quoting daveron:




well according to tropical ana 13 its nearing tropical storm strength and its going to hit fla so i think if storm w thought that and levi also they would post so try again teddy boy..
Well, what do you know.

NHC
IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Don't waste your breath and risk being banned. Stick to the weather and ignore.


I just wanted to give the kid a chance because he does seem to know a bit about weather, maybe he could learn a thing or two. But its apparent he doesn't, he's only here to stir up trouble. I'll take your advice to heart and ignore him.
642. j2008
Thanks everyone! Well it looks as if 95 and CATL AOI will become storms IMO, just look what MJO did in the EPAC when it was passing through. It spun up a Major, a Hurricane, and a TD. Should make for a fun show in the Atlantic, unless we get the atlantic version of Jova......
i have a feeling the center of 95L is trying to reform in the vicinity of the cancun area look at the NE tip of the yucatan
daveron went POOF!

Meh, I was plussing everybody elses and plussed one of his :\
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
daveron went POOF!

And then there was peace!
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
I am trying to use my "Iggy" button for the first time ever but it takes me here, "ChillinInTheKeys does not have any blog entries". What's up with that?

Tried it on FF & IE.


It is a known bug in this site, and only happens the first time. There is a procedure to enable the iggy, but its been so long I no longer remember how.
Hoping someone will remember and instruct you.
Rain is coming down HARD and gusty winds.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i have a feeling the center of 95L is trying to reform in the vicinity of the cancun area look at the NE tip of the yucatan
I see it.
You have to make a blog entry before you can use the ignore feature.
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:


It is a known bug in this site, and only happens the first time. There is a procedure to enable the iggy, but its been so long I no longer remember how.
Hoping someone will remember and instruct you.


I just made a short Blog entry and now it works. I really try not to "IGNORE" anyone, but some have just become too annoying!!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
You have to make a blog entry before you can use the ignore feature.


Are you sure? I have no blog entry yet mine works.
Unless maybe I created one then deleted it, IDK. lol
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


I just made a short Blog entry and now it works. I really try not to "IGNORE" anyone, but some have just become too annoying!!!


Ok good, glad that worked. Im really conservative with the iggy myself, but once I have had enough, then poof.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I didn't say anything about recon...

What you need to do is take your mouse, go to the top of the page, click "Sign Out", close your browser, get off your computer, and do something productive instead of trying to stir trouble on a weather forum.


I now have 39 on my ignore list. Bye bye Dave. Sigh...

Teddy and Stormwatcher, thanks so much for your informative additions to this blog.

Back to weather, 95L is sure looking good right now. Any idea on timing as to when she will head towards FL?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Good morning all.

Invest 95L improved in organization significantly last night...and is now very close to tropical storm status. When, and if, if does reach tropical storm statuses, watches will likely go up for Florida, as it appears likely that "Rina" will head towards Florida. All of the models that showed the system moving into the Bay of Campeche were wrong.



Doesn't it appear , based on the models, including the gfs, that the system's energy is basically absorbed by a developing low over the SE. I have been unable to find a model showing an actual COC moving over florida from the NW Carib. Most are showing the energy in the NW carib rapidly being pulled into another low, over land. ??
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


I now have 39 on my ignore list. Bye bye Dave. Sigh...

Teddy and Stormwatcher, thanks so much for your informative additions to this blog.

Back to weather, 95L is sure looking good right now. Any idea on timing as to when she will head towards FL?

Well, its headed generally towards the northwest right now, so it will need to turn north, then northeast...All this should occur over the next three days. We should see whatever it is make landfall in Florida in four days or so, IMO.
655. Much appreciated, thanks!

If I had to guess, I might say early this week but I'm not sure of that. Already moisture associated with it is approaching the Florida area.
Quoting barotropic:


Doesn't it appear , based on the models, including the gfs, that the system's energy is basically absorbed by a developing low over the SE. I have been unable to find a model showing an actual COC moving over florida from the NW Carib. Most are showing the energy in the NW carib rapidly being pulled into another low, over land. ??

It will eventually be absorbed within a frontal boundary, but it may still make landfall as a fully tropical entity.

The best comparison I can give is the Wilma/Front situation.
1049 hrs update from South Fla Water Management District...
A large low centered near the east coast of Yucatan is producing an increasingly organized area of heavy showers/storms as far north and east as central Cuba. This low is expected to move slowly across the Yucatan peninsula with limited potential for development through tomorrow morning, then improved prospects for development tomorrow afternoon and night as the low likely emerges off the northwest Yucatan. This low would then likely get tangled up with a frontal system moving across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Regardless of development, this system will at least indirectly impact on our weather with strong winds and areas of heavy rainfall through Wednesday.

Quoting RescueAFR:
1049 hrs update from South Fla Water Management District...
A large low centered near the east coast of Yucatan is producing an increasingly organized area of heavy showers/storms as far north and east as central Cuba. This low is expected to move slowly across the Yucatan peninsula with limited potential for development through tomorrow morning, then improved prospects for development tomorrow afternoon and night as the low likely emerges off the northwest Yucatan. This low would then likely get tangled up with a frontal system moving across the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Regardless of development, this system will at least indirectly impact on our weather with strong winds and areas of heavy rainfall through Wednesday.



Thanks.
I was just going to go look for that.
662. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It will eventually be absorbed within a frontal boundary, but it may still make landfall as a fully tropical entity.

The best comparison I can give is the Wilma/Front situation.

Lets all hope she doesnt pull a Wilma......But you never know, especially the way this season has been, Its pulling tricks out of everything it can. Should be a fun one to watch certainly, but I got a bad feeling bout this storm...
Lots of clouds..super overcast all day, but no rain so far. I just hate getting ready for a storm that might just "spring up" fast with little time to do the last minute pre-storm stuff. If it comes in as a TS or minimal hurricane, ok. I just do not want to go through another Wilma type storm in October AGAIN! Once was certainly enough. I figure something will hit because I have been cooking all weekend and and loading up the freezer with beef stew, chicken soup and spaghetti sauce!
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


I now have 39 on my ignore list. Bye bye Dave. Sigh...

Teddy and Stormwatcher, thanks so much for your informative additions to this blog.

Back to weather, 95L is sure looking good right now. Any idea on timing as to when she will head towards FL?
NHC has it still over the Yucatan in 72 hours so I don't think it will be before Thursday or later.
Recon to fly Monday afternoon.

NOUS42 KNHC 161530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT SUN 16 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 17/1100Z TO 18/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-138

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA OFF YUCATAN
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 17/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01JJA INVEST
C. 17/1530Z
D. 21.0N 86.0W
E. 17/1700Z TO 17/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIX SYSTEM AT 18/1800Z IF IT
DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT NEAR 22.0N AND 87.0W.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It will eventually be absorbed within a frontal boundary, but it may still make landfall as a fully tropical entity.

The best comparison I can give is the Wilma/Front situation.


I guess its still a bit early, however, with Wilma the models clearly reflected well in advance a closed coc moving from the NW carrib across S Florida northeastward. I have not found a model that shows that yet. The current models (almost all of them) do show a COC developing and than near Immed being absorbed, while the energy void of a circulation moves accross Florida. Interesting to see how the models depict this in future runs.
So the front is likely to pick up 95L in about 36 to 48 hours?
Just hit me...of course, S FL will have storm. I will be house and dog sitting this week for a dear friend. She has been out of the State for each of our last 3 storms!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It will eventually be absorbed within a frontal boundary, but it may still make landfall as a fully tropical entity.

The best comparison I can give is the Wilma/Front situation.


Let's hope the only similarity is track not intensity. Could do without the surge!

My blog entry reset my comment counter.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
NHC has it still over the Yucatan in 72 hours so I don't think it will be before Thursday or later.


I has to be before Thursday. By Thursday the front will be into South Fl. clearing the state of precipitation.
Quoting barotropic:


I guess its still a bit early, however, with Wilma the models clearly reflected well in advance a closed coc moving from the NW carrib across S Florida northeastward. I have not found a model that shows that yet. The current models (almost all of them) do show a COC developing and than near Immed being absorbed, while the energy void of a circulation moves accross Florida. Interesting to see how the models depict this in future runs.
What do you think about an Opal path from 95?
673. j2008
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:


Let's hope the only similarity is track not intensity. Could do without the surge!

Definatly hope you're right. Well time to go to church, take care stay safe.
knowing how the nhc works they will not upgrade until recon goes in
12Z, GFS at 15 hours.
Quoting j2008:

Lets all hope she doesnt pull a Wilma......But you never know, especially the way this season has been, Its pulling tricks out of everything it can. Should be a fun one to watch certainly, but I got a bad feeling bout this storm...



you are lucky if you get a weak tropical depression out of this...people in sou fla will be wearing sweaters by mid week so no need to worry about any tropical system...
It looks like 95L is going to go inland before it can close off the COC.
Quoting daveron:



you are lucky if you get a weak tropical depression out of this...people in sou fla will be wearing sweaters by mid week so no need to worry about any tropical system...
the NHC gives it a 50% shot so that statement makes no sense and 60's is not sweater weather
Quoting scott39:
It looks like 95L is going to go inland before it can close off the COC.

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.
sry for the wayy of topicness but who would u start today earnest graham or ryan torian
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.
tropical does it look to you like the coc is trying to reform to the NE tip near cancun
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.



im just taking all this in for i can come back and gloat ...you guys are so far off base what a joke...people in sou fla will be shivering with temps in the mid 50s and brisk north winds through friday with tons of dry air...
Quoting daveron:



you are lucky if you get a weak tropical depression out of this...people in sou fla will be wearing sweaters by mid week so no need to worry about any tropical system...


Yes, a T.D. a possibility or maybe just heavy rain,

And Wilma was followed by a cold front with strong cool winds out of the North.

So just because you get a cold front, that doesn't mean you can't have tropical weather just a head of it.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
the NHC gives it a 50% shot so that statement makes no sense and 60's is not sweater weather


must we quote the trolls?
Do any of the models forecast 95L to develop into anything but a big mass of convection?
Quoting daveron:



you are lucky if you get a weak tropical depression out of this...people in sou fla will be wearing sweaters by mid week so no need to worry about any tropical system...


God has spoken

*Claps his hands*

Okay move along, nothing to see here!! Thank god I was not going to pay attention to this; WHEW!!!

*sarcasm off*
Quoting Seflhurricane:
tropical does it look to you like the coc is trying to reform to the NE tip near cancun

Yes.
thats about right 95L is nothing but a big mess that will amount to nothing..
hello there for the first time in La Ceiba since friday
I can see the sun thanks to the MJO or the remains of td 12 it hasn´t stop the rain until now
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Do any of the models forecast 95L to develop into anything but a big mass of convection?


I know the NAM was pretty consistant for a couple days developing a Tropical System.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Do any of the models forecast 95L to develop into anything but a big mass of convection?

The NAM.

Did it nail 95Ll...? We shall see...
12z, GFS at 39 hours.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.
I dont know about if its already been inland and now off shore, but the models show it going over some part of the Yucatan. I dont think it will develope before then. Afterwords possibly but not before then IMO.
Quoting daveron:



you are lucky if you get a weak tropical depression out of this...people in sou fla will be wearing sweaters by mid week so no need to worry about any tropical system...
Really would like to know why i'll be wearing a sweater when high temp here in south west florida are gonna be in the mid and upper 70 back up your statements with some kind of fact or perhaps just another tool.
Quoting stormpetrol:


849 in Mexico?!
where did you get that map from
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Inland where? Its circulation has already been inland, and is now offshore.


Hey, Tropical Anaylyst. I guess you and I were right in our thinking yesterday. You made me feel real good when you agreed with me about 95L moving back east when all the models were saying west. I finally got one right. LOL Thanks for answering me on the blog, no one does.
12z, GFS at 45 hours, low on the move heading towards Fl.
Look'in good 95L.Look'in good!.To bad it's not over the middle of the ocean.
Quoting wayne0224:
Really would like to know why i'll be wearing a sweater when high temp here in south west florida are gonna be in the mid and upper 70 back up your statements with some kind of fact or perhaps just another tool.



look at the deepening trof over canada and the steering currents plus the jet stream is dropping south...do you understand what im saying...cold weather as far south a s miami...this is forecast to go into the northern bahamas...very unusual for this time of year...
Quoting WoodyFL:


Hey, Tropical Anaylyst. I guess you and I were right in our thinking yesterday. You made me feel real good when you agreed with me about 95L moving back east when all the models were saying west. I finally got one right. LOL Thanks for answering me on the blog, no one does.

No problem.
Quoting WoodyFL:


Hey, Tropical Anaylyst. I guess you and I were right in our thinking yesterday. You made me feel real good when you agreed with me about 95L moving back east when all the models were saying west. I finally got one right. LOL Thanks for answering me on the blog, no one does.


Would you like some cheese with your whine? :)
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Would you like some cheese with your whine?

?
Re: 696. Think altitude/elevation.
12Z, GFS at 54 hours.
i would really disregard the GFS model and stick to the Nam which has been very consistent and 95L looks to be reforming near the cancun area
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:


I now have 39 on my ignore list. Bye bye Dave. Sigh...

Teddy and Stormwatcher, thanks so much for your informative additions to this blog.

Back to weather, 95L is sure looking good right now. Any idea on timing as to when she will head towards FL?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Would you like some cheese with your whine? :)


Yes, only if it is St. Gustav 1985 reserve. Geoff, I take it you are in West Palm Beach. Guess you will get some rain.
12z, GFS at 60 hours. Whatever does form is moving inland.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
i would really disregard the GFS model and stick to the Nam which has been very consistent and 95L looks to be reforming near the cancun area

GFS did well with the previous low that hit the east coast of Fl.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No problem.


i can see why lol you and 13 make a great pair..
Visible satellite imagery shows the center of invest 95L very near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. If it does cross land, it will be for a very brief period of time, and organization would not be hampered significantly, if at all.

Quoting Seflhurricane:
i would really disregard the GFS model and stick to the Nam which has been very consistent and 95L looks to be reforming near the cancun area


Im not good with animated maps but I think you might be right. I don't have those low vorticity maps, but it looks like a new low is forming to the east of where it was.

95L COC appears to be reforming between tolum and cancun very near the cozumel area
Quoting WoodyFL:


Yes, only if it is St. Gustav 1985 reserve. Geoff, I take it you are in West Palm Beach. Guess you will get some rain.


We should know a lot more tomorrow as to what to expect. I thought 93L would drench us last weekend, but turned out to be on and off showers.
Joe Bastardi has been saying for the last 3 days, and is still saying, that this system will do exactly what the ensemble models are showing now.

Storm moves up into the Gulf and then moves across Florida.

Beachman42
12z, GFS at 69 hours. Low has been absorbed into the frontal boundry.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Visible satellite imagery shows the center of invest 95L very near the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula. If it does cross land, it will be for a very brief period of time, and organization would not be hampered significantly, if at all.




WHAT ORGANIZATION CANT wait to hear this...
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

GFS did well with the previous low that hit the east coast of Fl.


The GFS had 93L heading up to SC.
rain bands starting to form over the Se florida coast , reports from the florida keys that they have received between 3-5 inches of rain since friday
*Click image to enlarge (image can further be enlarged in Link Window by clicking anywhere on it)
does there is real pontential that the invest in the central atlantic will develop?
Rainfall totals since yesterday morning.

Quoting WoodyFL:


Hey, Tropical Anaylyst. I guess you and I were right in our thinking yesterday. You made me feel real good when you agreed with me about 95L moving back east when all the models were saying west. I finally got one right. LOL Thanks for answering me on the blog, no one does.
Levi also said it could form a secondary coc east of the one on the Yucatan.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 16 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. IN ADDITION...WINDS
NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS INTERACTING WITH LAND...SOME GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT IS STILL POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

Just making sure you know...That is the 8AM TWO.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just making sure you know...That is the 8AM TWO.


Yeah, I didn't see an 11am out yet? Maybe we'll have to wait until 2 pm?
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


We should know a lot more tomorrow as to what to expect. I thought 93L would drench us last weekend, but turned out to be on and off showers.


That was a disappointment. We need the rain. Hope it's not too bad.
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Yeah, I didn't see an 11am out yet? Maybe we'll have to wait until 2 pm?


only thing that required an 11:00 update is Irwin
We have had a few systems this year where the COC relocated. I think Irene was one of them while it was in the Carribean. Most of these systems had the relocation shift further North. It looks like a COC relocation with this one as well.

Expect the tropical cyclone probabity to make another jump at the 2:00 PM update.
New Blog
hmm...


hmm...Invest 95L


hmm...


hmm...Central Atlantic Invest


Anybody think the tropics aren't active, say I :-P...also just as I thought the blog grew exponentially from yesterday :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, its headed generally towards the northwest right now, so it will need to turn north, then northeast...All this should occur over the next three days. We should see whatever it is make landfall in Florida in four days or so, IMO.


I GOTTA KNOW,AM I ON THAT LIST?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just making sure you know...That is the 8AM TWO.
Link


I don't know how to post a loop but speed up the shortwave loop and looks like a coc around 20N and 85W.
Fresh Windsat 95L