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Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains to the Yucatan Peninsula

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:01 PM GMT on October 19, 2008

An area of disturbed weather associated with a large area of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean Sea. This is not a reincarnation of Tropical Depression 16, but does have some of the moisture from that storm. The intensity and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorms in the disturbance has slowly increased over the past day (Figure 1). Wind shear is a high 20 knots, and is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next four days. This may allow some slow development of the disturbance. None of the computer models develop the disturbance, and NHC is giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. A slow west-northwestward motion across the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to begin by Wednesday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains of 3-6 inches to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan over the next three days.

Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance. Image credit: NOAA/Satellite Services Division.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

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