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Western Caribbean disturbance bringing heavy rains to the Yucatan Peninsula

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:01 PM GMT on October 19, 2008

An area of disturbed weather associated with a large area of low pressure has developed over the Western Caribbean Sea. This is not a reincarnation of Tropical Depression 16, but does have some of the moisture from that storm. The intensity and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorms in the disturbance has slowly increased over the past day (Figure 1). Wind shear is a high 20 knots, and is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next four days. This may allow some slow development of the disturbance. None of the computer models develop the disturbance, and NHC is giving it a low (<20% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. A slow west-northwestward motion across the Yucatan Peninsula is expected to begin by Wednesday, and the disturbance will bring heavy rains of 3-6 inches to Belize and Mexico's Yucatan over the next three days.


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance. Image credit: NOAA/Satellite Services Division.

I'll have an update Monday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Originally heard that by Enya though. Both good versions.

Yeah, had to send that to the main system (usually just plays classic rock) But the computer speakers don't do it justice. 2000W picks it up.

All this air - headed somewhere...

Quoting PcolaDan:


Missed my opportunity to see them earlier this year. :( Originally heard that by Enya though. Both good versions.


First time I have seen these women.. they are fantastic.. will be buying a CD tomorrow
Thats true, KBH, you have had plenty rain recently. I dont think you want any more soon !
Quoting Orcasystems:


First time I have seen these women.. they are fantastic.. will be buying a CD tomorrow


They're awesome, first saw them during PBS fund raiser. They always have them and Andre Rieu. (Gawd I'm getting old. I like him too! lol)

edit: p.s. more enjoyable to watch, easy on the eyes :) and yea a good sound system really brings them out
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Invest ... 91L
Present Satellite, Area of Interest 91L

brb later
sorry my bad, stone crabs are in season between oct 15 to may 15 why can't we get any in key west, ????? government may be or because no one can afford to go out because of fuel prices, still sunny in key west,
Antonio, a lot of unsettled weather around there. A big area too.
Could be something brewing ?
508. DDR
Hi pottery,it was very wet today,last shower was about 1/2 an hour ago,and theres more on the way.
DDR, I thought about you today, man. Looking at the black sky over the mountains, and hearing all that thunder, I thought you were flooded! I thought i would get some good rain too.
Got 1/2 "
Not complaining too much....
497. PcolaDan

I remember when I was a kid there were a lot of places in FL where you could drive on the beach. Then again, some places you could walk a mile down the beach and not see a soul.

Of course you can understand that...Now days that would be like 30 billion cars on the beach, probably not a good idea.

Ah, the good ole days...
First time I have seen these women.. they are fantastic.. will be buying a CD tomorrow
First saw them on PBS.


Quoting RobDaHood:
497. PcolaDan

Then again, some places you could walk a mile down the beach and not see a soul.


Big reason why I love to head to area between Pensacola and Navarre during Winter. It's wonderful, if a bit chilly.
513. DDR
I actually replied to you earlier,i got 1 3/4 of an inch,rain fell more in north trinidad,its all good,though the ground was saturated since early this week with that bad storm we had.
DDR, the storm earlier this week missed me too.
You are hogging the rain, man.
LOL
I'm out.
Stay safe everyone.
Its Monday, in the morning..........
516. DDR
Quoting pottery:
DDR, the storm earlier this week missed me too.
You are hogging the rain, man.
LOL

LOL! you were hogging the rain in july,its actually drizzling right now,anyway i got to rise early with the sun,catch up with you later,goodnight.
NWS Charleston Discussion:
... THE ECMWF CONTINUES WITH A MUCH
DEEPER SYSTEM THAN THE GFS...TRYING TO DEVELOP A STRONG SURFACE LOW
ALONG OUR COAST ON FRI AS OPPOSED TO THE GFS WITH ONLY AN OPEN
COASTAL TROUGH. THE 12Z GFS IS FEATURING A GULF LOW MOVING UP THE
COAST SUN NIGHT. HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE EUROPEAN MODEL WITH THE
PRIMARY RAIN EVENT ON FRI WITH LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

See loop Day 5
Whats going on at 20N 50W ?
Whats going on at 20N 50W ?

ULL
Hmmmmm...
plenty tunder & lightning out here tonight.

Looks like I'm about to be "Blob swallowed"
from the West...

While the Giant Orca leaps over 20Nx50W
to my East... uneasy sleeping I think

CRs
Rays going to the World Series. Who'd a thunk it?
This is for TampaSpin.

Rays win...Rays win...Rays win!!!!!
RAYS AMERICAN LEAGUE CHAMPIONS CONGRATULATIONS!
524. KBH
a few people told me nothing......I don't believe them though! trying to find a better answer
Quoting hurricanealley:
:(


lol took me a second to figure out why the :(
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
525. ;(


Thank you
Sorry dude. j/k
It's not like it's hockey or anything...
GO RAYS!!!!
too much shear for 91L
533. 7544
runs not finish yet but looks like fla will have something else to watch other than 91L

Link
hahaha i knew the rays were going to the world series when the playoffs started and it came true :)
not this time redsox fans :(
Quoting 7544:
runs not finish yet but looks like fla will have something else to watch other than 91L

Link


I doubt it!
I think Florida needs to get ready for the possibility of tropical storm or even hurricane conditions from Paloma and Rene in the next week, thats just my opinion, but its time to get ready before its too late. better safe than sorry
538. 7544
is this a new gfdl run seems to take it further south than the last run

Link
Quoting TheSavant:
I think Florida needs to get ready for the possibility of tropical storm or even hurricane conditions from Paloma and Rene in the next week, thats just my opinion, but its time to get ready before its too late. better safe than sorry


Where's Rene coming from?
Quoting 7544:
is this a new gfdl run seems to take it further south than the last run

Link


Yeah it's a new run, but the link's not working for me.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning
03:00 AM UTC October 20 2008
======================================

At 8:30am IST, The Depression (ARB02-2008) over southwest Arabian Sea has moved west-northwest and now lays over southwest Arabian Sea near 10.0N 57.5E or about 800 kms east-southeast of Alula, Samolia and about 850 kms southeast of Salalah, Oman.

Satellite imageries indicate persistent organised convection due to the system. The Dvorak Intensity of the system is T1.5 with sustained 10 minuts winds at about 20-25 knots and a central pressure of 1004 hPa. State of the sea is moderate to rough around the system.

Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.0 and 13.5N and 51.0 and 57.0E. The deep convection is sheared to the west of the system. The lowest cloud top temperatures due to convection is about -75C to -80C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 10-20 knots and past 24 hours shear tendency is -5 to -10 knots near and to the northwest of the system. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which roughly runs along 15N. The sea surface temperature near the system and over the region to the west of the system is about 28C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwesterly direction towards extreme north Somalia coast and Gulf of Aden.
heh never notice this morning that the IMD marked the depression as "ARS" instead of ARB for Arabian Ocean. =P
Any educated guesses about 91L this morning?
91L, I predict, that it will strengthen into a tropical depression at most due to proximity to land. If it strengthens to a tropical storm, it will likely weaken soon after.
Could anyone visit my blog? The update is about Worldwide storms Today. Also, I can't make up a title, so please comment on my blog if you have a better title.

49 countries/states (NOT STATES OF THE U.S.) visited my blog!
Quoting panamasteve:
Any educated guesses about 91L this morning?


I am going to say possibly 91L becoming a depression today or tonight.
There were some models yesterday (IIRC) that had it develop and move toward Florida.
Definitely one to watch this week in S FL, I still have a urge to lean toward anything developing hitting SW FL, historically this time of year that is where they end up.
91L will take a few days to organise. Right now it is in very poor condition.
Good morning...
still alot of windshear over 91 atlantic season is winding down and its monday
552. IKE
Extended discussion from Birmingham,AL.....

"Drier for the weekend although an isolated shower not completely
out of the question across the east. Amplifying ridge will begin
to take shape early next week across the western Continental U.S. With
significant eastern troughing. Overnight temperatures over parts
of the area possibly near freezing in the 8 to 10 day range."

saw in the farmer almanac this summer it was going to be a nasty winter. it is winding up that way. the snook bite has been great this last wk at the jetty which is another sign it is going to be a cold one.
554. IKE
Here's part of the long-range discussion from Memphis,TN...

"It appears that the upper pattern will be increasingly amplified
as we head into November.".........


Winter is getting closer.

555. IKE
91L....

556. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RISING AND DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA
Are we talking a WILMA situation out of 91L? Some models have it taking the same path.
Good Morning
Here in Wilmington ,it was 41 F with clear blue skies and a light North wind..just enough to keep the bugs down. Thanks for #556, IKE
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


I am going to say possibly 91L becoming a depression today or tonight.


00ZGFDL says 60mph Tropical Storm around the Naples area. Most other models agree to different degrees and timelines. Some a little more north around Tampa and big bend area but are all showing some sort of development out of this area.
560. IKE
Low here was 48.9 degrees...coldest of the fall, so far.
Also interesting, something we've witnessed in recent past storms crossing Florida, is that the GFDL has this area getting stronger on the way across the peninsula.
no wilma here maybe a tropical storm though
560 - IKE

41 degrees in Macon this morning, 93% humidity, otherwise known as chilly and wet.

Well, the South Indian Ocean now has ASMA !!!
Can't wait to see what we do with that one.LOL
morning everyone!!!!,about 24hrs until sheer relaxes to around 5-10kts around 91L,I thought the way things were looking late afternoon yesterday it might jump the gun!!!!,but the sheer just north of the system has been 30-40kts ,but is moving away to to NE....after tomorrow I know believe that development into a TD is possible thru 48hrs as the low drifts WNW before turning to the North or NE in about 48-72hrs as a moderate TS,all interests east of the mississippi river should not discount the possiblity of a weak hurricane or a strong TS effect the eastern GOM in about 72-96hrs as a low pressure in the central plains closes off and the southerly flow returns to the eastern GOM area in about 24-36hrs.....local temp. right on the beach here in SRQ is currently~62degrees......
Quoting stillwaiting:
morning everyone!!!!,about 24hrs until sheer relaxes to around 5-10kts around 91L,I thought the way things were looking late afternoon yesterday it might jump the gun!!!!,but the sheer just north of the system has been 30-40kts ,but is moving away to to NE....after tomorrow I know believe that development into a TD is possible thru 48hrs as the low drifts WNW before turning to the North or NE in about 48-72hrs as a moderate TS,all interests east of the mississippi river should not discount the possiblity of a weak hurricane or a strong TS effect the eastern GOM in about 72-96hrs as a low pressure in the central plains closes off and the southerly flow returns to the eastern GOM area in about 24-36hrs.....local temp. right on the beach here in SRQ is currently~62degrees......


Agree. Land interaction is going to be the key player in determining how strong it gets.
Just checking in before leaving for classes this morning. When I get back from classes, I will have another "Special Tropical Disturbance" analysis; this time portraying the factors that will impact the future strength and motion of this disturbance.
567. IKE
91L....

Really difficult to pinpoint the low-level circulation center, but based upon IR imagery, I would estimate the center to be between 17-18N and 86-87W.
Good Morning All,

Sure doesn't feel like Oct. 20 in FL right now. Another day the air conditioner won't be running, gotta love that.

Got that "Fay" feeling again. ie: another stubborn system with no where to go, waiting for the first opening. I hate those.

Been looking at surface maps but gonna need more coffee. Lots of coffee!
570. IKE
Belize / Phillip Goldston Intl. Airport, Belize (Airport)
Updated: 36 min 13 sec ago
Light Rain Showers
75 °F
Light Rain Showers
Humidity: 95%
Dew Point: 74 °F
Wind: 10 mph from the NNW
Wind Gust: -
Pressure: 29.95 in
Visibility: 12.0 miles
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 787 ft
Mostly Cloudy 3937 ft
Mostly Cloudy 25591 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft..............
Good Morning All, and have to agree with RobDaHood. Beautiful day in Central Florida. Hard to believe that there is even something out there swirling around. Nice and cool, and YEP AC is OFF for the day!! Yay!!
could 91L be one of mother natures last laughes this season?
the models are starting to come into some agreement about 91L's path into SWFL,somewhere between tampa and naples.....no matter how strong it is,thurs-sat there's a good chance of heavy rain,gusty winds and possibly some coastal flooding.....
oh shoot!!!,I forgot today is Hurricane Thanksgiving!!!!...pottery???
Good morning everyone :)

Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Invest ... 91L
Present Satellite, Area of Interest 91L
I'm naming 91L "uncle fester" as its been a staple in the gulf of guat. the last 72-96hrs,I'm starting to think that 91L MIGHT be a large storm area wise...
Quoting stillwaiting:
the models are starting to come into some agreement about 91L's path into SWFL,somewhere between tampa and naples.....


Where are you seeing that? Only asking because most of the guidance I've seen looks more like Cedar Key, but maybe my pages aren't updating?
morning orca!!!,feels like we've got some of your airmass down here in srq,62 degree air temp. right on the water(gom)!!!..lol
I don't see anything, anywhere calling for heavy rains and/or any coastal flooding in Florida:


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
640 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

A CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY MID-WEEK AND LATER
IN THE WEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE SUITE OF
MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST...BUT THERE IS SOME
CONSISTENCY IN THAT THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY GET
DRAWN INTO THE GULF LATER IN THE WEEK...WITH THE SYNOPTIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BRINGING TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA...LIKELY BEGINNING ON WEDNESDAY AND INCREASING THROUGH
LATE WEEK. EVEN ACCOUNTING FOR THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE A SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...WITH THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT THE MOISTURE STRETCHING ACROSS
THE REGION BY THURSDAY.

Orca,

I did say hi and thank you but post got et...

Trying again

Good Morning Orca
Quoting RobDaHood:


Where are you seeing that? Only asking because most of the guidance I've seen looks more like Cedar Key, but maybe my pages aren't updating?


the latest hwrf and gfdl(TC guidance models) runs take it into srq or charlotte counties in swfl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
310 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO VEER. THE UPWARD POP TREND STILL LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THAT
TIME. FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...THERE IS
STILL MODERATE DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE LATEST GFS AND THE ECMWF IN
REGARDS TO LOW PRESSURE LIFTING OUT OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE
GFS REMAINS STRONGER...QUICKER...AND FURTHER NORTH WITH A LESS
DEFINED CIRCULATION MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF AND NORTH
FLORIDA THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. THE LATEST ECMWF LAGS FURTHER
SOUTH AND LATER IN TIME...PULLING A CIRCULATION ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW DUE TO THE
MODEL INCONSISTENCIES PORTRAYED OVER THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS FOR THOSE
LATER FORECAST PERIODS. BUT EITHER WAY...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND.
WILL KEEP OUR RAIN POSSIBILITIES IN THE CHANCE RANGE...AND REFINE
THE OUTLOOK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.
583. Vero1
000
AXNT20 KNHC 201225 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR
17N87W...OR ABOUT 90 NM E OF THE COAST OF BELIZE. BROAD LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND THE LOW...COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE E AND SE OF
THE LOW...FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 80W-87W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND OVER BELIZE OR
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A DAY OR TWO. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS
OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

584. Vero1
GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WHICH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM NW CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 22N85W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 21N88W. A STATIONARY FRONT THEN EXTENDS FROM
21N88W TO THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W. THE PORTION OF
THIS COLD FRONT THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY STATIONARY IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION AS EVIDENT IN PROGRESSION OF THE LOW
LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT AND CORRESPONDING CLOUD BANDS.
WEAK ATMOSPHERIC LIFT IN RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT...IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
SE GULF. FARTHER TO THE NW...AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHES FROM
S TEXAS TO THE S APPALACHIANS. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IN NW FLOW
ALOFT BETWEEN THIS UPPER RIDGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW AND
CENTRAL GULF...ESPECIALLY AS A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE N
GULF FROM THE SE CONUS. ADDITIONALLY...WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
PRESENT OVER MEXICO...AND A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW OFF THE COAST OF
W MEXICO NEAR 12N94W...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW THROUGH THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC RESULTING IN GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
NEARBY E PACIFIC REGION.
when we getshowers and t-storms as there calling for from a tropical airmass,the rain is usually heavy rain,not a light mist!!!,hope that clarifies things,and generally if we get a low in the southern GOM moving onshore here along the west coast of FL if the winds are anystronger than 30mph onshore some places along the water get coastal flooding,may I ask where you live????
Tilling the gardens today, be back later.
Personally I think the fact they are calling for this area to move inland will obviously inhibit it from strengthening. Hopefully it remains disorganized until then and we have nothing more to worry about than rain. I don't want to see a Wilma scenario play out although atleast it late October and it wouldn't be too hot if we lost our electricity...lol
Quoting stillwaiting:
when we getshowers and t-storms as there calling for from a tropical airmass,the rain is usually heavy rain,not a light mist!!!,hope that clarifies things,and generally if we get a low in the southern GOM moving onshore here along the west coast of FL if the winds are anystronger than 30mph onshore some places along the water get coastal flooding,may I ask where you live????



Every system is different and causes a different set of problems.
I have seen no evidence anywhere within the NWS or the HPC that leads me to believe that 91L is going to cause any major problems yet for the state of Florida.

plus if a low is to our west then the flow will be from the South or SW which in west FL is a VERY moisture enriched flow!!!!
Quoting stillwaiting:


the latest hwrf and gfdl(TC guidance models) runs take it into srq or charlotte counties in swfl


Okay, see that now. colo.state tracks not updated yet. Went to FSU to see.

Quoting RobDaHood:
Orca,

I did say hi and thank you but post got et...

Trying again

Good Morning Orca


I see the weather down there is getting a bit colder.. want to trade..its actually frosty this morning.. I don't do frost well :(

Anniversary today.... 29 years of ummmm wedded bliss I believe is the term they use.

Congrats Orca!!!

You don't hear about that too often anymore!!

Many many more blissful moments!!!
Quoting LucieFl:
Congrats Orca!!!

You don't hear about that too often anymore!!

Many many more blissful moments!!!


Yup, almost half way thru my second consecutive sentence :)
Keeping in mind that we do not yet know what we're going to have as far as a system in Florida and we don't yet know where whatever it might be will go....here is the Precipitation Forecast for 8am Thursday thru 8am Saturday:


Photobucket

does not seem like 91 plans on making landfall in yucatan to me it has been sitting there for awhile not moving
Quoting stillwaiting:
...may I ask where you live????


If you're asking me...Highlands county, near Lake Placid. On NWS radar if you drew a line under the word "Sarasota" all the way to Hwy 27 you'd be within a few miles.

we've still got a day or two before we figure this one out. I'm feeling for folks in Belize, they've got to be sick of rain by now.
Good morning all

Although the TWO still places 91L over the open water quikscat does not give any indication that there is a low where the NHC says it is. We do see the rotation on the satellite and to the extent that there is a surface low it would appear to be just inland near 15.8N 86.5W. Much of what we are seeing as "spin" would seem to be in the mid levels of the atmosphere.

This position is supported by the fact that Roatan has a South wind. 91L appears to be meandering around and producing heavy rain in the NW Caribbean. Since midnight last night I have recorded 1.45 inches at my home in Grand Cayman and it is still raining steadily, albeit not very heavy.
LOL.... Orca, it's my anniversary also today... 6 years of bliss for me. Congrats to both of us.
Good Morning Early Birds - Am I checking in to good news or bad news???? still wayyyy to early to know for sure about 91L's path......Paloma already looks to be MissyMischief, just fussing about in her corner--working us up w/expectation...women!! looks like I may be driving back into some "weather" on Saturday.

SMELLS LIKE MOOOSE in SRQ this morning -- think some of Orcas's cooler air has travel down here....
Quoting vortfix:



Every system is different and causes a different set of problems.
I have seen no evidence anywhere within the NWS or the HPC that leads me to believe that 91L is going to cause any major problems yet for the state of Florida.



your opinion is yours,and mine,mine..that said I respect your opinion 100%,but I'm just giving my personal sypnosis on the weather and for life and property issues,one should listen to local officals and NO ONE ELSE,although sometimes we on the board here know things BEFORE the nhc makes them known to the public......
597. kmanislander

Thanks for the update kman. Alway look for your update from the front lines when storms are in that region.
Good morning everyone. 28 degrees this AM in central PA. Suppose to get up to 63. Quite in the tropics this morning
Orca

I don't do frost well :(

me either, and "Happy Anniversary"
Stillwaiting - planning to drop off mango's this AM b/4 I depart to pirate paradise. Yesterday the weather really put me in "fish-shock"... 60 degrees in the AM and then up to 79 in the afternoon..... much prefer the 79... feeling better today -- must have been that nighttime beverage Pottery suggested
happy anni orca!!!!!!,its better to be,then to be without though!!!!



morning storm!!!!!,gonna have a new syp for us this perfect SWFL morning???
Must have missed 91L. It has been there for a few days, but not moving much.
Quoting stillwaiting:


your opinion is yours,and mine,mine..that said I respect your opinion 100%,but I'm just giving my personal sypnosis on the weather and for life and property issues,one should listen to local officals and NO ONE ELSE,although sometimes we on the board here know things BEFORE the nhc makes them known to the public......



I don't have an opinion about any of this and was not trying to state one.
I am only presenting the facts as we know them right now this morning...that's all.
20/1145 UTC 16.4N 86.1W T1.0/1.0 91L
Quoting surfmom:
... feeling better today -- must have been that nighttime beverage Pottery suggested


Glad to hear that. Hope you have a fun trip.
611. IKE
Quoting stormdude77:
20/1145 UTC 16.4N 86.1W T1.0/1.0 91L


Which means it's moved SE...or away from the coast. It should start heading back to the WNW or NW when the high finishes building on in.
Congrats ORCA!! 29 is very respectable !!! I thought I was a relic with 25 years....
I do not frost at all - I just freeze - and then I am of NO USE
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
356 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS W OF 55W...
A 1011 MB LOW PRES AREA WILL REMAIN STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR THE BELIZE COAST THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PERSISTENT 15 TO 20 KT EAST FLOW ACROSS THE FAR
NW CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF CUBA TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN WILL PERSIST BETWEEN HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE
NORTH...AND THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.
ANOTHER WAVE NEAR 40N WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS N OF GUYANA
TUE...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WED. LOOKING AHEAD TO LATER
NEXT WEEK...SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POSITION OF THE LOW NEAR
BELIZE...BUT GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW SHIFT WEST
OVERLAND AND WEAKENING. THIS LEAVES MODERATE TO FRESH EAST FLOW
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SOUTH OF HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC.

ya I was ease-dropping on your"bitter"convo yesterday,its really good if you mix it w/gingerale or 7-up!!!,what a wooooonderful morning here on the beach,I'd say perfect morning....I'll ALWAYs except some of your local produce,I'm working on growing tomato's,jalepano's and strawberries for the winter...and you'll surely be entitled to some,when are you coming back from the "other" coast????,thurs-sat should be fun here locally if the GFDL pans out w/a strong TS going right over me/us!!!!!
617. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting StormW:
606. stillwaiting 9:40 AM EDT on October 20, 2008

morning storm!!!!!,gonna have a new syp for us this perfect SWFL morning???


Yes...later this a.m.


And the forecast is..."stillwaiting" (LOL)

Mornin' Storm
Quoting vortfix:



I don't have an opinion about any of this and was not trying to state one.
I am only presenting the facts as we know them right now this morning...that's all.



actually,no your not. The only weather FACTs,are/is weather that has already occured,if you new anything about weather you'd know that weather conditions world-wide CHANGE by the second,so........according to your facts my area (sarasota),will get zero rainfall thru sat????,I don't think so!!!!
On the visible loop, there appears to be a MLC just north of Honduras (I would say around 16.6N, 85.7W). That's the area to watch throughout the day.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
LOL.... Orca, it's my anniversary also today... 6 years of bliss for me. Congrats to both of us.

Congrats to you also :)
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:


Hurricane Ekeka (1992)?


good.