WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Western Caribbean disturbance aims to soak the Yucatan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:53 PM GMT on October 31, 2006

Unsettled weather continues in the Western Caribbean in association with a tropical disturbance (93L) that has developed a weak surface circulation this afternoon. The circulation center of 93L was at 20N 83W at 3pm EST this afternoon, moving west-northwest at about 15 mph. The disturbance is under 20 knots of wind shear. This shear is expected to increase to 30 knots on Wednesday, so I am not expecting 93L to develop into a tropical depression. The disturbance should bring heavy rains to Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. At this time, it does not appear that 93L will affect South Florida, although moisture from the surface trough of low pressure 93L is embedded in will increase the chance of rain by Wednesday night. QuikSCAT satellite-measured winds were in the 20-30 mph range southwest of Jamaica at 6:03am EST this morning. 93L will pass over buoy 42056 at 20N 85W tonight. Winds at the buoy this afternoon have been less than 15 mph.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the Western Caribbean disturbance.

In the Pacific, Typhoon Cimaron has made an abrupt course change, and is now on track to strike China near Hong Kong on Friday as a tropical storm.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Dr.
Thank you Dr.JeffMasters for the update (I always wanted to say that)
And the Dr. has spoken but why did the GFDL line turn red - I always thought it was pink - man...a gal has to keep up these days.
Ohh and have a happy Halloween Dr.
It is still pink on my system saddlegait
Peace Masters!
It's pink on mine two.
this link shows that the shear isn't that high though
Link
Who are you going to trust? Stormjunky or Dr. Masters. I'd preferably go with Masters.
why wouldn't that site be just as accurate? My original thinking was that the upppper level winds would be unfavorable for development, but there is a surface low pressure 1008mb so there is some potential i fhte convection can get its act together. Look at the link.
I don't think the GFDL's were able to utilize this run so thats why you don't see the red. The pink is the A98E model.
What's the the -10 on that chart?
-10 equals extremely low wind shear which is near the low pressure.
That chart is valid through November 6th~
Ok, but I'd think Masters has alot more information he can utilize then Stormjunky.
That chart can not be valid for that long. They must have to update it every 6-12 hours because windshear tends to change quite fast.
Doesn't matter where you get the charts guys. If you do not refresh before reading them....you could get any type of erroneous reading.
Well I said I thought any chance for a tropical storm to landfall in the US was very, very slim, like take that sigh~ this morning~ flaunting shear maps & all. I've obviously angered the 'cane gods cause I got the LBARS running over my house this afternoon.

the area with -10 on the shear map, the area drawn out by dashes, means shear has just dropped by 10.
Just look at the satellite imagery all the convection has to do i get closer to the low.
Good afternoon Rand.
21. 0741
you too need stop this master vs stromjunky stuff what we need to do is keep eye on it but i can see that shear affect it because all as storm are east of center their front forecast come in gulf soon get shear higher and it now
cause I got the LBARS running over my house this afternoon.

Oh well....the Gods threw the weak one at ya...LOL!
I understand the concepts, finding valid information on the web is a pain in the.... well you know! Where do you get your info Rand?
hi, rand can you verify for me what the statement "This is a 72hr windshear forecast." means from the shear chart that was linked by drakoen above? is that an average over the next 72 hours or does that mean this is what the shear looks like in 72 hours? thanx jo
I get it from where everybody else gets it.....all over the place. Ask Skye...she has the best links.
Posted By: Randrewl at 9:30 PM GMT on October 31, 2006.

the Gods threw the weak one at ya


Remember that, the weak one.
"...but i can see that shear affect it because all as storm are east of center their front forecast come in gulf soon get shear higher and it now"
Can u make some sense out of this please?
I first thought that the upper level winds would tear it apart, so dont attack me. I agree that it is something to watch considering ,there is a low pressure.
It is a 72 hr shear chart.
Yep if that low to spins up that's all yah need somethimes.
Typhoon Cimaron forecast

New JTWC Typhoon Cimaron forecast.
I can't even recognize 93L anymore.
Careful Typhoonwatcher, Rand is watching!
Jo.....I don't use shear charts much....hardly ever. The reality is that they change faster than published.
Here is the only one I use. This is the most current.


Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


Who's Jo?
I though so, those were the only ones I used, but I didn't understand them for along time. |Strange though, they have the system I'm monitoring under 5-10 knots of shear.
36. 0741
what i am say that you both need stop that fight. what master say and what you saw on stormjunky site!!! let see what during the night
I just don't use them. Turn on a water vapor loop. You can see the shear that is happening right now.
I see the S Caribbean is beginning to pump up the action as we say in the tropics. If anything happens this is where it will come from
Oh believe me 0741 this is no fight, I'd know that!
Could somebody give me a link to their favorite water loop?
No one is fighting so stop dramatizing this all i am saying is i got inforamtion from a site. i first thought upper level winds would tear it apart. But there is a low pressure and all i am saying is we should watch it.
Now that's drama with a capital D!!
Question,
Being the rookie, & laywoman, I never see Steve Lyon's name mentioned after his tropical update. I always thought he was an intelligent person when it comes to hurricanes. Am I wrong,? He just said that there is nothing to worry about , at least for Florida because of the shear.
I don't watch the Weather Channel that much.
"Now that's drama with a capital D!!"
Whatever I am not going to get into it with anyone in here.

"Being the rookie, & laywoman, I never see Steve Lyon's name mentioned after his tropical update. I always thought he was an intelligent person when it comes to hurricanes. Am I wrong,? He just said that there is nothing to worry about , at least for Florida because of the shear."

He is where i got the information in the first place that the upper level winds were marging in the system.
Hey, I am the only Drama Queen here!!
.Dramaqueen....My sister is the world's # 1 drama queen....A splinter in her finger , and she is dying from a stab wound
here is a little something for you all to think about

Puerto Cabezas, which is near the Nicaragua/Honduras border on the sea due S of the Caymans has a pressure of 1008 mb and NE winds.

Boca del Toros due S of there in Panama has a NW wind and a pressure of 1005 mb and FALLING !

Could this be something spinning up near 13/14N and 80 or 81 W ??

food for thought
52. 0741
that will move into central america
When I do watch the tropical update on the Weather Channel I hate it when Steve Lyons
is not there. The other one seem to be reading a script ,and have no idea what they are talking about.
maybe
Pressures are normally low in that area year round. I myself would not be concerned until pressures tropped to about 1002 mb and there was plenty of deep convection, which there is not.
then again maybe not
Wishcasterboy

well we have the convection building and the pressure is on the way down.
Not crying wolf, just throwing something out to talk about
58. 0741
we need to see what nhc say at 5:30 outlook
0741

expect the NHC to take the usually conservative line and say something about showers in the S Caribbean etc NOT expected to develop LOL
Wishcaster

No I must confess that I have not but then again I have not spent any time on anyone's blog other than a visit to the Proffessor's this morning to wish Nash a happy b'day
What do you want them to do?

Mike
"Statement as of 5:30 PM EST on October 31, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Shower activity associated with the trough of low pressure in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea has become slightly more organized this
afternoon. However...further development of this system should be
slow to occur due to strong upper-level winds.
A second area of disturbed weather has also developed in the extreme
southwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low
pressure near the coast of Nicaragua. Further development of this
system should be slow to occur due to proximity to land.
Due to the slow movement of these systems...heavy rainfall may occur
over portions of the western Caribbean Sea and Central America
during the next day or so.

Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through
Wednesday.
$$
Forecaster Beven/Landsea"

jo
If you mean the NHC they should only do what their analysis tells them to do. I certainly do not want them scaring anyone unnecessarily but after a few odd calls this yr they seem to be a bit reticent about saying anything until it actually materialises even if the signs are pointing in that direction
Hey they gave it a mention. Maybe I am not so far off base after all
68. 0741
kman their talk about the area you talk about A second area of disturbed weather has also developed in the extreme
southwestern Caribbean Sea in association with a broad area of low
pressure near the coast of Nicaragua. Further development of this
system should be slow to occur due to proximity to land.
Due to the slow movement of these systems
70. 0741
what you talking about rhett?
the wave in the southern Caribean looks better on the IR imagery then the one to the north. The one in the South looks like it has a better chance to develop considering the convection to with the wave above is linear and has less cold cloud tops than the wave to the south of it.
Mike

I looked but didn't see anyhting about weather !

Anyway today is my wife's birthday so I better get my butt home.
Will check back later to see if the S Caribbean makes it to 94L status

LMAO
Don't forget the cake!
you got that right. Got the flowers and the champagne earleir LOL
C U all later
I wouldn't be getting all lathered up about 93L right now.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


i am talking about the wave in the southwest Carribean. That looks a hole lot better.
Not 93L the blob to it's south.
Well....that is not an invest right now.
Gone for dinner here....have fun.
Climatoligically speaking, tropical depression foramtion is not unprecedented in the area where the "blob" in the southwestern carribean. Probably will be 94L.
Maybe
i have to go. TIme for dinner (porkchops!) bye. Also gone trick or treating never too young to do so.
Did you mean never too old?
Hello Y'all! Looks like Cimaron is becomeing more organized. Good luck Hong Kong! I'm not completely buying the entire weakining forcast at the moment...
Never seen this blog ss quite
I see more models are jumping on the bandwagon tonight. I find the GFDL rather interesting!
could someone post the most recent models for 93L
the recent model run is already up look at the model run by Jeff masters
i dobt 93L will develop due to strong upper level winds but the "blob" south of it might have a better chance. That area is usually favorable this itme of the year.
I believe those lines starting to look like a Spider gentlemen
It will be an interesting week reguardless, GFS looks confused.
the NHC has the waves move west and if they do the waves will run into land and no development thus the end of this hurricane season.
99. HCW
Nice to see 93L back on the navy site.

New model runs just posted

Link
The GFS 850-200mb is calling for a dramatic increase in shear across the GOM.Right now i just dont see any significant threat from 93L to south-florida.
Here is the 48HR shear map! From what I see whatever 93L is will be clear of the area by then. The shear map you posted 23 is 10 days out.
Anyone even looking at the LP area in the central gulf?
Typhoon Cimaron continues to get better organized this evening as it heads in the general direction of china.
ProgressivePulse if 93L trys to move slowly to the north in the next couple of days it will probably encounter increaseing wind-shear which will most likely disrupt any on going development with this disturbance.
ABNT20 KNHC 010304
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST TUE OCT 31 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
EVENING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

A SECOND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS LIMITED ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.
109. 0741
i think both system are not going form into td or ts
Here is a visible loop of Cimaron showing some improved organization.


Not sure if this has been posted here before.

Plane sensors offering better forecasts
What's up y'all?
Anyone see anything?
You can't know how posting loops make it hard on the dial ups!
Get broadband man it's da bomb!
Wow!
Here's the spaghetti's.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


In this STILL image you might be able to pick out the compact circulation of 93L.


Forget 93L it's going to get torn apart. The SW Caribbean blob, however is in a fairly condusive enviroment for intensification. In my view I see thunkerstorms with the blob becoming more concentrated around a certain area, this should become 94L soon if conditions continue to warrent develepment.

Where....is that circulation?
Do yourself a favor....just remove the loops you have posted.
85long, 20lat
I just did, but I did for you!
There's just nothing forming here right now.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


This image shows the low in the NW Caribbean. I expect it to dissipate from high shear and the low to it's south will have more room to develope.

A SECOND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA HAS LIMITED ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
UNLIKELY DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES...HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

I'd say it's pretty easy for a circulation to develope offshore. But all that matters is the rain right now, watch out for mudslides!
Our little SW Caribbean friend is in a enviroment of most air.

Probably eating candy!
Where the heck is everybody!?
Somethings wrong with the blog, it's posting my posts in the wrong order!
TSA.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


All that red looks like a firestorm
Windshear is forecast to stay low over SW Carib. blob for the next few days.
Water Vapor Loop shows the direction and shear....but we're in a black-out right now.
Transport Security Administration?
Randrewl, are we ever going to get a decent rain in Tampa?
I don't have a Java plugin.
stormy3....I really don't know. I sure hope you do. We need it bad here on the other coast. I had a quarter inch earlier...nice.
Theres a small chance of rain tonight and tomorrow, after that that it should stay dry.
Ya can't work without Java!
I had one on my old computer but she crashed! I can make do without it.
El Nino cycles prescribe cooler and wetter weather for Florida. I have no idea what the Hell you are talking about!
I tried to install Java on this computer. The Java installer just kept taking me in circles!
My bad I forgot to check the graph, forget what I said storm3!
Seen enough of that when i lived in St. Augustine. Got tired of evacuating the medical facility every time i turned around. Plus the entire Flagler County evacuated and the site of 4 land highways all going the same way was really terrifing. helicopters were giving reports over the air to us and you could hear the fear in their voices as the watched the cars and prayed the flames would not jump the highway over these same cars,
Then go back and remove your inaccurate comment and fire photo please. It is the Adult thing to do.
You should have a nice rainy Winter.



Something like this....


Their we go! I'd never intentionally try to misinformation somebody here.
Information....or misinformation posted here is mostly swallowed as the truth by those that can't or do not have the time to do it for themselves.
Post truth or don't post.
It was an accident dude, chill!
Thank you Randrewl for an honest answer.And wishcasterboy, just say what you know for sure, a simple question deservers a simple answer. So far you have me burning up in a fire or going down with the ship, not a pretty picture.
Oh thanks for making be feel so good Storm3!
I make one mistake and now your jumping on me like what I say determines whether you live or die.
You start your own inferno here if you don't know what you're talking about Wish.
Mike!!
Don't want to make you feel bad. I've seen a great improvement in your blogs lately and i really enjoy your series on your site.
Wishcasterboy
I'm sorry I made a HONEST mistake. Next time I'll check to be 100% sure, let it go Rand.
It's ok Storm3
Wishcasterboy....No, it was not an honest anything. You are not qualified to be posting on the Doctor's blog about anything.
Sure
But the least you could do is call be by my name Mike. If you don't I see no reason to call you Randrewl or Rand.
Go easy I'm learning.
Your name here is Wishcasterboy.
My name is Randrewl.
Do you want to be called Randrewl?
Well no wishgirl, i'm a freaking guy and I find that very insulting!
That's my name here......Randrewl.
Call me Mike then, is it really that hard?
Have you even seen my latest blog post?
You published your name when you signed on. That is your name to me.
I do not want to know anything about you.
We are not friends here....we just talk weather.
This is the name I call you Wishcasterboy.
While I cannot imagine why anyone would choose that handle unless they were a troll....that was your choice.
You will never have any respect here with that handle.
That's how it is.
This is your name....Wishcasterboy.


This is my name..... Randrewl.

End of discussion.
End of discussion
Just show how low you are.
I passed out this afternoon, not tired. Your a little older my friend perhaps you should get some shuteye.
Admin Notice

Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering.
the F word is unacceptable on this blog.
I welcome the reporting of myself for being rude to you. Go on...just do it.
Go to sleep
When I post on the Doctor's blog. It is mostly about the current weather situation. I have no problem with anyone reporting me to Admin.
I post weather because this is a weather blog.
Not a seventh grade book report blog.
Go ahead.....report me. You have already been.
Typhoon Cimaron is looking well organized Tonight....

Any idea how old that particular photo is?
subj/prognostic reasoning for typhoon 22w
warning nr 22//
rmks/
1. For meteorologists.
2. Prognostic reasoning for 010000z to 060000z Nov 2006.
A. Typhoon (TY) 22w (Cimaron), located approximately 240 nm south-
southeast of Hong Kong, has tracked west-northwestward at 04 knots
over the past six hours.
B. TY 22w remains in a weak steering environment south of a break
in the subtropical ridge east of Hong Kong. A shortwave trough over
central China has enhanced this break over the past 24 hours, but
will now lift out to the northwest. A northwestward track will cont-
inue through tau 48, when the core of the storm will encounter high
values of vertical wind shear, leading to a decoupling of the upper
and lower levels. The lower levels will then be steered southwestward
by a low to mid level anticyclone anchored over southern China. The
available dynamic aids are in poor agreement, however the majority
indicate slow movement of the tc through tau 72, and many favor a
southwesterly track consistent with the tc being steered at lower
levels. This forecast is highly dependent on significant weakening
of TY 22w in the high vertical wind shear gradient south of the china
coast. If this weakening does not occur, an alternate scenario in
which TY 22w makes landfall and becomes embedded in the midlatitude
westerlies is possible.
C. TY 22w will intensify in the short term due to strong poleward
outflow enhanced by the shortwave trough over China, which is count-
eracting the moderate shear currently over the system. Past tau 12,
TY 22w will gradually weaken as it encounters increasingly higher
values of vertical wind shear.
D. Current wind radii are based on a 311958z AMSU pass. Forecast
wind radii are based on climatology for an average-sized system.
E. Past tau 72, TY 22w will continue to be steered southwestward
on the periphery of the low-level anticyclone. Further weakening will
occur due to the high vertical wind shear environment and inter-
action with Hainan Island around tau 120.
Forecast team: Bravo//
nnnn

Wow, the track on this storm is really uncertain!

They're pretty sure it's going to get shredded by shear anywhere it goes.
Somebody needs some sleep !!!!
This frame points points out another disturbance in the far eastern part of the Western Pacific. This disturbance will need to be monitored for further development.

Here's this.

Photobucket - Video and Image Hosting


If you look into the Southern Hemisphere you can see another disturbance that could develop.
I love that one line that says " if anything on this graphic causes confusion, ignore the entire product" LBAR goes right over tampa!
Always refer to the NHC for official information.
Outlook for the Queensland Tropical Cyclone Season 2006-07

On the basis of the best available information, it is considered unlikely that the coming cyclone season will be quite as active as last season. In 2005-06, there were 5 tropical cyclones in the Queensland region with both LARRY and MONICA having severe impacts on the east coast.

The general climate pattern is typical of the developing stage of an El Nio event. Sea surface temperatures are cooler than average in the region and sustained negative values of the Southern Oscillation Index have been recorded. Furthermore, there is considered to be an elevated risk that these El Nio conditions will soon become fully established, and then persist through until Autumn next year.

The Regional Director of the Bureau of Meteorology in Queensland, Mr Jim Davidson said today that from a climatological perspective, cyclone occurrence on and near the east Queensland coast is lower during El Nio conditions than in Neutral or La Nia years. Accordingly, cyclone numbers this season are more likely to be below average. At least two cyclones are expected however and one of these may well be severe.

At this early stage, it is impossible to predict the likely onset, path or intensity of any individual cyclones that might develop. Historically, the first cyclone of the season has often occurred in December, but this is not always the case.

Mr Davidson reaffirmed that the most important advice that people can receive at this time of year is to be well informed of the dangers posed by cyclones, storm tides and floods, to understand the warning service, and to be sensibly prepared.

It is also worthwhile to note that the steady growth in coastal development has served to significantly increase community vulnerability to tropical cyclones, with mitigation being a widely accepted strategy to reduce the impact.

Interesting
LBAR no like Tampa!
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 84W SOUTH OF 23N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15
KT. A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
20N. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW
TO OCCUR DUE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 78W-84W. THE
LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
I'd say 93L is gone for good, but the blob too it's south still has a chance.
There is no blob to the south.




Posted By: Randrewl at 9:10 AM GMT on November 01, 2006.

Always refer to the NHC for official information.


Posted By: Randrewl at 9:38 AM GMT on November 01, 2006.

There is no blob to the south.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 010947
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EST WED NOV 1 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY..OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

A SECOND AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA...IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE
COAST OF NICARAGUA
HAS LIMITED SHOWER ACTIVITY. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO
LAND.

DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES...HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/LANDSEA

The blob is actually a broad area of low pressure. Always refer to the NHC Randy.


Hey guys im tierd and cant spell:)
Good morning everyone....Hi Nash...hope your birthday was fun....lots of rain in VB last night and this morning.....but the kids still had fun:) trashed the house...not fun for me...but all part of the Halloween experience!
could someone tell me what is spinning just ofshore the east coast of FL??Link
Finished the run..Phew..Thats humid for sure..Orange Juice and toast...thats better..
Good morning, Patrap, Gator, Wayne, ALL...have a nice "humpday!"

eyestoplogo1left.jpg

...a blob and a swirl in the Caribbean, is there something smelly off the coast down there???
morning cowboy..
hello everyone
Gm alley
Traffic heavy inbounCAmsd..but a crisp cool morning...
looks like a low forming over central Florida.
Anybody else see this??Link
Thats a very interesting feature 400 x 600
Tops to 20K..but its well defined at the surface & mid-levels..
I've been watching that ECFL blob since lastnight, very interesting, especially since lastnight it was an open circulation just starting to form just off coast from me & now it's pulling it's act together over land...there's updates in my blog. I've gotten 2.69" of rain so far from it. Here's the local ~
315 AM EST WED NOV 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...CONVERGENT BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED TROF NEAR
THE EAST COAST STILL PUSHING ONSHORE EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A FEW
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. MLB
NWS OFFICE HAS RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN SINCE MIDNIGHT.

ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH PRESENCE OF SFC TROF COUPLED WITH SOME INSTABILITY
WILL LEAD TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST NEAR
THE EAST COAST BUT ACTIVITY WILL REACH WELL THROUGH THE INTERIOR.
00Z NAM INDICATING A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER WEST HALF OF
PENINSULA...MAINLY AFFECTING LAKE CO IF IT OCCURS AS DEPICTED. MAX
TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY GIVEN SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER...BUT AREAS W/O
SIGNIFICANT HINDRANCE FROM THIS SHOULD REACH MID 80S INTERIOR AND
LOWER 80S COAST. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH BEST
CONVERGENCE SHIFTING BACK CLOSER TO EAST COAST.

THU...TROPICAL MOISTURE (MAINLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS) WILL BE
DRAWN NORTHWARD AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES. MEANWHILE...NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
INVERTED TROUGH WILL KEEP THE 1000-850 MB LAYER QUITE MOIST...AT
LEAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORABLE JET POSITION ALONG WITH
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL GENERATE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PENINSULA. LATEST SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS FASTER TIMING OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CONFINE THE
MOST ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE STATE.
HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HEAVIER RAINS ACROSS OKEECHOBEE
COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST...POSSIBLY STRETCHING AS FAR NORTHWARD
AS THE SPACE COAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM A DEVELOPING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA LATE IN THE DAY...SHUNTING THE DEEPER MOISTURE WELL OFFSHORE.

Can't wait for the morning forecast as this was written befor the COC formed west of me.
Cimaron is strengthening...933mb & 110kts.
It looks tropical on radar but prolly nothin to get in a twist over.
One mo thing....It does appear to be moving.............................................................................................. ..................................Im scared to say it...................................................................................Westish?
Yes moving west... The WRF didn't see this coming, here it is set on high res surface winds forecasted for the next 24hrs.

This has got to be mostly at the surface since there is mad shear over us. Like one of those freak ones we saw last year that as long as it lived at the surface & didn't strengthen much could survive under the high shear.
Highest tops in the swirlie ..only 20k..but much needed rain for some...
The central Fl. thing brought us welcome rains. Very little wind doubt if the little surface spin will last much longer.
Where is wtherobsrvr - he needs to be here. It's just a blog right now and people are already slashing and dashing each other.

Hey guys, I've been reading Dr. Master's blog for a few years now, but never actually signed up to post. So... saying hi. I'm pretty new to all of this, so sorry if I don't follow very well. Can someone tell me please what qualifies as a strong enough wind sheer to cripple a storm like this one?
Not much for low pressures in the ECFL area except for this one station, which may need calabrated. I got 1015.8↓
Current wind shear in Southern GOM..up to 90knts..
Good morning everyone
The 10day GFSx shoLinkws the systems well..and getting kicked NNe..
Morning sandcrab
Pat what happened in the quarter last nite.
Shooting On decatur I heard..Thats typical for halloween..
Heres the story ..some nut with a Gun..Link
Welcome GATech!~ 15-20kts is usually getting in the unfavorable range, there is ~24-28 over ECFL now, not real favorable. There has been times though where a tropical disturbance forms only at the surface & survives with higher shear aloft...1 theory being the shear above actually helps create divergence up top. But any time it strengthens enough to reach the upper levels, the shear rips it up.

Saddlegait~slashing and dashing each other? Where & what does that mean. I thought we were just tossing out some info & thoughts here. Yea it's small & probobily won't last long or move away, but we need the rain:)
Thanks Pat that was a lot more than our local news gave.
Pat the national hurricane conference is going to be back in N.O. this coming year.
.Thats good news..I dont have a certificate to go Though
We will hookup and sip a few on the riverwalk.lol
But I do have a pic of Ol Max MLinkayfield enjoying his retirement..
Maybe Dr Masters will go & bring us back the skinny.
Thatll work.I know a few..out the way places that most tourist dont know or get to.
Skye, I will be glad to share whatever is discussed with everyone. I am required to attend.
Skyepony needs to come visit and get the tour..Bring the camera.Well do the Ouarter then tour the coastal devastation.
Sounds good Pat get a good po-boy and cold beverage.lol
Maybe I could get a Honorary Jackson County special advisor for a day, pass..LOL
I have VA appt tommorrow..My Chlosterol is down from 302 to 241,..and Im 10 lbs lighter
All with the diet and that er..procedure last week..So im feeling MUCH better.Like 100% better.Ready to get back at it.
skip bourbon street, hit frenchman street. Eat at Maspero's, Drago's, Cafe du Monde, and The Bon-Ton. You're a N.O. native already :-)
Excellent sandcrab, I expect an extensive daily update in your blog, with the highlights here..lol. You bring us some pretty sweet info that is only privey to those of your status..Thanks:)

Patrap~ Perhaps next time I'm out that way...which isn't gonna be til someone in the family out there get married, dies or needs some major help.
Did work for Dragos in 02 in Metarie.But miss the lunch Counter at Woolworths on Canal & Rampart where Mom worked the most when that closed.
Dont stay with Family..We have oodles of Places to stash people.From Uptown to Bay St.Louis.You can get a lifetimes of Pics in a Day or Two.Jump on a Plane one day..Stay two..Fly back.
Im 6 minutes from the Airport.We send boy round to pick ya up.LOL
Tropical Storm Position and Intensity Page.

93L has weakend as Cimaron is strengthening
I may can slip ya in Pat.lol
I'm vacationed out right now Pat, maybe one day.
Well better get back at will check back later
Pat- I'm from the Northshore
Nice to c ya, Colds coming back to the N shore..Was inviting Skyepony...
Gatechnuke..parts of nshore got pounded.Bad
New blog up
I think for every 5 times it freezes on the NShore, it freezes once in N.O.
Im right Next to PArish line ,Kenner now.West
I gotcha, I was down there last weekend actually on my way to Grand Isle for some redfishing. I flew in for a long weekend, cause unlike Sky, I dont know how to be "vacationed out" :-) Caught our limit too.
Looks like this well above average weather is finally at its end in Florida, at least for the short term. Forecast saying temperatures could dip in the mid to maybe even low 40s in my area from the upcoming cold front. Certainly nice, but my Christmas was rather ruined by walking outside and thinking it was late September.