WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Western Caribbean disturbance a threat to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:16 PM GMT on October 08, 2007

Heavy thunderstorm activity continues to flare up in association with a broad area of low pressure over the Western Caribbean (94L). This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a 300 mile-long line of converging surface winds north of the Honduras coast (Figure 1), but not a closed circulation. Top winds were about 25 mph. Satellite loops show fewer heavy thunderstorms than yesterday, but it appears that this activity is starting to get organized. Some low-level banding of the thunderstorm activity is occurring over the Cayman Islands, to the northeast side of the center of low pressure. Surface pressures remain very low over the entire Western Caribbean, but have not fallen since Saturday. Wind shear is about 10 knots, and is expected to remain 10 knots or below through Wednesday. The low surface pressures, light wind shear, and warm ocean waters are all very favorable for formation of a tropical depression. The Hurricane Hunter flights scheduled for this afternoon and tonight were canceled, and have been rescheduled for Tuesday. I expect a tropical depression will form in the next 1-3 days, most likely on Tuesday.

Steering currents are weak in the Western Caribbean, and most of the computer models forecast that 94L will wander erratically for a week or longer in the region. A slow motion to the west or northwest is predicted for the next three days, which may bring the storm over the Yucatan Peninsula late this week. There is a strong trough of low pressure forecast to swing across the U.S. this week, which could pull 94L northwards across Western Cuba, the Florida Keys, or Southwest Florida, as forecast by the HWRF model. However, 94L would have to form quickly and grow large to "feel" the influence of this trough, and I estimate there is only a 30% chance that the trough will be able to pull 94L northwards over Florida.

Residents of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, northern Honduras, and Jamaica can expect occasional heavy rain squalls over the next 1-3 days from this storm. This activity could spread into the Florida Keys by Wednesday.


Figure 1. High-resolution (12.5 km) QuikSCAT pass from 7:34 am EDT Monday October 8, 2007. A 300 mile-long line of converging winds is apparent in association with disturbance 94L. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS/ORA.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical disturbance a few hundred miles north of Puerto Rico is generating a large area of thunderstorms. QuikSCAT data from this morning shows an elongated circulation near 25N 66W, and top winds of 25 mph. The region is under 20 knots of wind shear, and wind shear is expected to remain 20-30 knots over the region over the next three days. The high shear should discourage any significant development.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update.
Thanks for the update.
Good day, all! ♥
Thanks Dr. M~! :~)
good morning Dr. Masters
Hmmmm it looks like the disturbane north of Puerto Rico looks like its trying to take on sub-tropical characteristics?
Dr. Masters said...

"There is a strong trough of low pressure forecast to swing across the U.S. this week, which could pull 94L northwards across Western Cuba, the Florida Keys, or Southwest Florida, as forecast by the HWRF model. However, 94L would have to form quickly and grow large to "feel" the influence of this trough, and I estimate there is only a 30% chance that the trough will be able to pull 94L northwards over Florida.".........

70% chance the US is spared again. Watch out other places!
Thank's Dr. M...Your updates are always welcomed...:)
Upper level patterns setting up to squish 94 if it should decide to come north.
Thanks, Dr. M...does anyone else see a second line of convergence south if Jamaica in the QuikScat?
Wilma formed I think a week after this should form it seems like around this time of year around the same time a front comes down. It the storm slows or stalls it would give the front more time to come but thats a big "if."
Thanks Dr M. Morning all.
Hopefully 94 puts some good rains in Lake O. Next spring will be dry for S.E. U.S and I don't want to breathe anymore of last spring's smoke again.
14. UYA
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 08 OCTOBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 09/1100Z TO 10/1100Z OCTOBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-136

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 09/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 09/1530Z
D. 19.5N 86.0W
E. 09/1730Z TO 09/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 10/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 10/0230Z
D. 19.5N 87.5W
E. 10/0500Z TO 10/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES
IS SYSTEM REAMINS A THREAT.
3. REMARKS: TASKING ON THIS AREA FOR 08/1800Z
AND 09/0600Z CANCELED BY NHC AT 08/1130Z.
Thanks, Dr. M., and good morning, all.
why did they cancel so early it is developing they should have waited till it got closer to the time of flight
Ike, I can't take what the Doc said as an interpretation that the US is spared...a lil early for that.
18. UYA
Time of the flight was 11am. They cancelled at 7:30am. They just released the schedule at 10:30am to the public.
First flight is now for 18Z tomorrow. That means they will be airborne at 11:30am tomorrow.
20. IKE
moonlightcowboy 9:27 AM CDT on October 08, 2007
Thanks, Dr. M.

Ike, I can't take what the Doc said as an interpretation that the US is spared...a lil early for that.


I didn't say it was...I said....

"70% chance the US is spared again. Watch out other places!"
The disturbance is too suspect to turn into anything just yet it may very well hit the yucatan as a depresson.
IMO. People on the W coast FL and the keys should have their evacuation plans in place just in case. If this does dev. There won't be much time to act once it gets moving on the front.
Dr. M gives only a 30% chance 94L will strike FL. But for this unusual season, even that seems high.
Wondering has there every been "partial" land falls?
25. IKE
On Florida's west coast...Tampa....

There's no chance of rain all week.....

Wednesday
Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs around 90. Northeast winds around 10 mph.
» ZIP Code Detail
[partlycloudy]
Wednesday Night through Friday Night
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 60s inland to mid 70s along the coast. Highs in the upper 80s.
[sunny]
Saturday through Sunday
Mostly clear. Highs in the mid 80s. Lows in the mid 60s inland to lower 70s along the coast.
I think it is too early to ride the odds like that. Once the COC is established and once some of the models get in better agreement, I will not feel comfortable.
Conditions look ok in the GOM for now but overall conditions in the region will be going down hill and look to get rather destructive for any formation of a tropical cyclone.

CMC forcasted shear @ 144hrs
However, 94L would have to form quickly and grow large to "feel" the influence of this trough, and I estimate there is only a 30% chance that the trough will be able to pull 94L northwards over Florida.

Agree with Dr. M; It is way to early to begin speculation as to a potential Florida threat...Looks right now like a Yucatan issue for the time being and while an "evacuation" plan is a good thing during hurricane season, this system has not developed yet and it will take several days to see what happens with it...Plenty of time, IMHO, for us to watch it
I hope the CMC shear maps are right. We don't need to end this season with a late CONUS landfall. Esp on the W coast.
Flood I see that convergence too. The surface low would be more likely to form E. of Belize. The coastline (where Belize coast faces east, Honduras coast faces north) naturally supports cyclonic turning of the winds. If a surface low is trying to form off Jamaica, anything forming near Belize would have help from coastal winds. Fl peninsula has same seabreeze effect, but not 90 deg. to support surface low.
The latest visible Loop makes it look like 94L MAY BE CONSOLIDATING ON THE northwest portion of that line of converging winds in a concerning spot. Looks to me like Cub negative development impact off the table. Yucatan is what stands in the way, and possible shear forecast change. However, weaker systems going over the Yucaton can actually improve instead of get cut up.. Implicit in Dr M's blog is a 70% that this thing moves on west north west toward the Texas Mexico coast?? Thoughts comments??
For the record. I'm not a wishcaster. I'm a homeowner who pays too much for my insurance already. I just get antsy this time of year with these Gulf storms. They have proven hard to forecast and once they do form they have to cross land at some point.
Thankx Storm,excellent analysis,I also have been watching the indications of a possible gale forming off the east coast,could be our first nor'easter for new england.
Thanks StormW. Pardon the ignorance, but what is TUTT?
Tropical Upper-level Tropospheric Trough
dont ues that you no what word or you get a ban by : WunderBlogAdmin
w***c***** is bannable?
wel for al the wilma wilma wilma post senarios over the weekend lol wilma has to be the most posted storm ive ever seen lol we here in ground 0 ms coast try not to post katrina every 5 minutes well this looks more like mitch mitch not intensity but possible track. also possibe if its in the boc could be 2007 version of 1985 juan oct hurricane developed in high shear affected la/ms coast after 3 loops lol ike and some of us old folks should remember that one as we let katrina rest in peace let wilma do the same lol
Morning Storm!
Florida theat would be way down the road. Anything moving northward towards FL would have too much dry air to contend with. This storm would more likely be a benefit than a problem. For us on the E.C., it's easy to forget that 3/4 of state and rest of S.E. US is in major drought. La Nina is usually dry for southern half of U.S. Any rain we get now is needed rain.
Link

Wish it looked dead. But looks to be getting it together...
Just because there is only a 30% chance that it will move over Florida doesn't mean that there is a 70% chance that the US will be spared. Although storms are less likely to track to the Centeral or Western Gulf States in October, it has happened before. I'm not saying it will this time, but I'm just saying it can't be ruled out. Florida is not the only state that can be hit by a Hurricane.



Centeral and Western Gulf Hurricanes affecting the US.
HHunter, I think that's also a possibility. It will depend on when 94L develops with conditions expected to become less favorable in the GOM. However, I do believe the system will miss the first trough and likely stall into a quasi-stationary position somewhere near the Yucatan channel. That front is forecast to become stationary off the US coast down into the Caribbean in about five days with the low still present. After that, intensity and track are a crapshoot. I wouldn't rule out a landfall anywhere around the GOM coast, and any track would likely be influened by the next front passing through. More details here.
that word I usually interpeted with people who believe that somthing isn't gonna develop or is gonna die. And those people get mad at the people who say that it will develop or survive. It also could happen visa versa as well but you get the point.
Anyway... how about them hurricanes or wait... there are none...
Flood, remember it as a big front that scooped Wilma up though. Wilma's outer bands dumped snow on mounains in N.E. This is not going to be that kind of front. This front will more likely keep anything trying to develop pinnned in W. Carrib.
This is a pretty significant cold front as most models ive looked at this morning.
51. IKE
12Z NAM keeps Florida rain free and 94L south of the state.........

Link
Thanks, Ivan...that was my thinking
TWC doesn't seem to think 94L will amount to much.
Closer to home (US), that cold front may be generating some severe weather across the plains as it dips through the Cental U.S....More of an immediate threat to the U.S. than 94L right now.............
NAM lol....Worthless model for tropical cyclones.Stick to the globals but use with caution especially 120hrs out in time.
53. stormpetrol 3:00 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
TWC doesn't seem to think 94L will amount to much.



Consider your source...the "Talking Heads" of weather...
57. IKE
hurricane23 10:00 AM CDT on October 08, 2007
NAM lol....Worthless model for tropical cyclones.Stick to the globals but use with caution especially 120hrs out in time.


So is the CMC and it's talked about on here all of the time...and besides I know about the NAM track record.
NAM = Not Accurate Model
CMC = Can't Model Crap
GFS = Good For Something
GFDL = Good For Double Looks

HWRF and EMCWF = ...well, I'll have to think of acronyms for those lol
60. IKE
Statement as of 11:30 am EDT on October 8, 2007

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...

An area of low pressure centered between Belize and the Cayman
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over
portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land areas.
While surface pressures remain low in this area...visible satellite
imagery and surface observations indicate that the low level
circulation is broad and not well-defined. Therefore...the Air
Force reconnaissance mission for today has been canceled.
Upper-level winds are expected to become a little more favorable for
development of this system during the next couple of days as it
moves slowly westward or northwestward. Another Air Force
hurricane hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
on Tuesday...if necessary.

Elsewhere...tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the
next 48 hours.

$$

Forecaster Rhome
62. IKE
Oh well....tropics are in check for now.

This sounds like a nice...lower dew point...forecast.......

"Friday Night
Mostly clear. Lows 53 to 58.
[partlycloudy]
Saturday
Mostly sunny. Highs 80 to 83."
It's terrible at predicting even that.
58. jphurricane2006 11:03 AM EDT on October 08, 2007
Adrian it seems no matter how many times it is said, you dont seem to even think about this

the NAM may not be good for tropical cyclones, but it is very good at showing moisture in and around the CONUS area

if the NAM is showing 0% chance of rain on the west coast of Florida, that tells us alot

Understood JP but alot of folks use the NAM for tracking tropical cyclones and i was just point out it should not be used for that.

The models ive looked such as the ECM and the GFS bring cooler temps as far south as tallahasee.There also some potential for a coastal low to develope.
63. HIEXPRESS 10:07 AM CDT on October 08, 2007
Doc M Rules> No spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog,

I wouldn't think a popular blogger would need to do this. Sorry, but I find it's frequency getting to be annoying.


I find the announcements of a new blog from various bloggers helpful. To each his own I guess.

66 Sam Team
I can see that. That's OK with me too. Middle ground?
A New T.D?
70. IKE
69. stillwaiting 10:14 AM CDT on October 08, 2007
A New T.D?


Nope...not now.

it seems like if you want to there are 240 blogs about 94l and 240 different views, you could spend all day reading them....lol
67 StormW Good morning storm. Sorry if I offended. I do read you blog on occasion. Very good. I don't have one as I don't have that much original to add. Not naming names, Just putting it out there.
63. HIEXPRESS 10:07 AM CDT on October 08, 2007
Doc M Rules> No spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog,

I wouldn't think a popular blogger would need to do this. Sorry, but I find it's frequency getting to be annoying.


I find the announcement of blog updates by the more knowledgeable participants in this blog helpful in the extreme, particularly since Dr. M only updates daily in most cases; updates by people like StormW and Drak are more up to date as they tend to occur more frequently, not to mention the fact that they provide their own opinions and reads into the data. A simple solution to your problem might be to ignore their "blog update" entries...
cant post image check out this Link
75. IKE
stillwaiting...it didn't work....
Morning StormW. Morning to everyone else as well.
sorry i can't get pics or links to work ...
check out the navys tropical weather page ,the most recent wind/sat for 94L looks pretty close to a closed center
94L does look pretty good this morning.
Looked at the QS from this morning, and no closed LLC as of yet. I suspect with banding begining to occur, we will have a TD as early as tonight or tomorrow morning.
Good Day
a very interesting area at9N 50W with cyclonic turning. this is about 600 mils south east of the southern winward islands, the area is under 10 knots wind shear and a pressure of 1012 MBS. SST are about 30 deg C and moving WNW. Although conditions are almost ripe for development it will be slow to occur as wind shear ahead will increase to 15 knots
Everyone in here doesn't feel the same as the people who remind me of hall monitors or teachers pets. We are not about to cure cancer. Today is sunny in Melrose, FL. Sorry, we are all individuals and I appreciate everyones input.
Keep doin what you are doin StormW!

The synopsis is a great tool for others to learn.
What continues to be interesting to me this morning is that the HWRF is still going with the NEWD solution, against the GFDL.

I did notice the GFDL shifted a little further EWD on the 00z run, almost splitting the uprights, but still bends it WSWWD at the end of the run.
Pretty Signifcant cool down showing up on ECM and GFS models this morning.Cooler temps expected as far south as tallahasee.
StormW

There are alot of us that like to read all the different information. Keep doin' what you're doin' please. :)
nice blog analysis moonlightcowboy. Your right this is a tricky one. Everyone in GOM needs to keep their head on a swivel...
Ive added the Experimental Graphical Outlook on my tropics page on my website.Feel free to use.

Adrian's Weather

floodman, i think your off the mark. StormW is just trying to point people to his answer to everyones similar question. Thanks StormW for what you do.
I believe the key to this system is whether or not it splits the uprights and passes through the channel without land interaction.
Storm, I look forward to your blog every morning. Your analysis is easy to understand for us lay people. Keep doing the great job!
Good morning Adrian!
Good morning all, come check out my blog for a "frame of reference".

Great blog by the way, StormW. Again, as usual. You're almost as good as Masters, just need to correct your spelling of "trough" to be as good.

Nice blog, moonlight. Good job.
Thanks, Hhunter, Jacko! Yeah, it's a little early for saying where it will or won't hit. It has to develop first. Having said that, all the conditions right now are favorable, except there's no llc. But, I believe we might see that later today, or this evening. Conditions are just too favorable for it not to develop.
floodman, my bad it wasn't you. but the thought still applies.
But unfortunately, as y'all might know, storms sometimes do go poof, even under the right conditions. We saw that with 99L, as it has the same disease as our present disturbane...no surface LLC when it mattered.
Great job MLC!

I believe we may have a closed LLC later tonight or in the morning if it can keep pulsing throughout the day.
Jacko- This one is fairly persistent. I do believe a TD will come out of this, and maybe a TS.

Hard to say right now if anything more will come from it. It depends on land interaction. If the center stays offshore and moves through the channel, it may become an issue.
Thanks, Nash! Noel is probably on the way.

I'm out for a bit, catch all later. Have a good Monday!
Gatekeeper you've been acting trollish as of recently. Why is that?
Ike owns the NAM lol :)
Looks like the NAM has 94L parking in the SW Caribbean for a bit before swinging it EWD to just S of Cuba at 84hrs.
Looks like convection may be starting to wrap around a possible LLC for 94L.. having trouble posting a link but check out a IR loop...
It's cool man...your blog is still great all the time. Is that guy in the red glasses with the mustasche you? Just wonderin'.

And Nash, quoting your "Maybe a TS". There is no doubt that if they call it a TD they WILL name it. That's a given, EVERY TD will get named if its going to be a factor, unless it's numbered "10" of the season.
Yeah...just a pet peeve of mine. I prefer trof to trough...doesn't confuse some folks with the word through if they are reading quickly.

Right Storm; you came to my defense a few months ago when a "troll" accused me is not knowing how to spell when I used "trof" and you pointed out that it was a correct spelling in met terms......I think it's much easier to read as well.........
Morning again all.

Area N of PR looks pretty good all things considered. Likely won't survive long, but still looks interesting.
My forecast for 94L for overall:

Tropical Depression: 20%
Tropical Storm: 20%
Hurricane: 5%
Major Hurricane: >1%
closed center 85W, 18N according to navys wind/sat..check out the navys 94L invest page!!
Hi everyone. Some errans done and had to catchup here and read the latest updates.

I do appreciate almost everyone's input here and as I skim the prev posts I find a couple that I have to "ignore" so they won't waste my time LOL!

So more of the same, wait and watch? I feel confident enough that I am moving forward with my garden planting for the fall/winter here in the tropics. and going to take a chance and put a lot of pots of flowers and pretty "stuff" in the yard to get it ready for the winter season...our favorate time of year down here!

Thanks again everyone, I will check back later!

StormW, going to you blog next, I appreciate you let me know it has been updated. I look at this one, yours, Bob's, and a few others a couple times a day. (not mentioning all of them or will forget a few of you that I look at your blogs)
Interesting Sir Walsh...Never knew you were that old. your cool, congrats on your Distiguishement.

and 94L is really struggling...
117. IKE
sporteguy03 10:41 AM CDT on October 08, 2007
Ike owns the NAM lol :)


And the GFS...which is running now and shows 94L getting parked over the Yucatan.
What's the deal with the GFDL and HWRF lately?

Seems like they are only running at 12z, 18z and 00z but not at 06z on these Invests.


Odd.
the 12Z runs on all of those should be out by now
Yeah Ike, I see the GFS is out to 54hrs and shows 94L sitting there over that spot.
Not to stick my nose where it does not belong, or start an argument.

Only for interesting debate...

Dictionary.com has no trof, but has trough.
Wikkipedia.com has no trof, but has trough.

So what gives? My take, trof is an accepted slang.

Again, just interesting debate, that is all. Not trying to step on any toes.

Personally I don't mind reading it either way, and also spell it either way from time to time.
No Jacko. 12z initializes at 8am. They are still running. The GFDL and HWRF are dynamical models, and due to the complexity and high resolution in which they run, they come out later than the BAM suite.
The ECMWF is the latest of all of the high resolution dynamical models to come out.
its just slang but i think ive seen it in official forecasts as well from time to time
Yes Jacko- They initialize at 8am, but it takes HOURS for them to finish the run.
Back to work, see y'all in a little while ☺
They don't just start at 12z and run for an hour and then it's finished:-)

Many equations being solved in the computer models. Takes time.
Trof is in the NOAA glossary as an accepted slang term for trough, so yeah its acceptable, and I kinda like it better spelled that way too.
Link
Bastardi, says there is a big nor'easter coming --may see 40 -60mph winds for 24-48 hrs in the northe east. But i mention because it ties into 94L. Bastardi thinks it is developing and could likely sit around where it is for days until this east coast storm pulls out. Then head north. Florida and west coast florida needs to watch under this scenario. Will have to waite and see until we get defined LLC so models can get a better handle.
at 8am EDT or GMT???
Good morning,,,,,,,,


Thanks for the update Doc!

Maybe NOEL will be in the gulf of Mexico at the end of this week! GO NOLES!
Uh oh Hhunter! You mention Bastardi around here and people get irregular!

EDT Jacko.
Joe Bastardi lol..he predicted a major new england hurricane last year

thanks Nash
STATISTICS
Tropical geometry of statistical models

Lior Pachter, and Bernd Sturmfels {dagger}

Link
when one of you has a minute, could you explain what the difference is in say, the 850 vs the 700 vorticity run of a model? Thanks.
And it begins.
STATISTICS
Tropical geometry of statistical models

Lior Pachter, and Bernd Sturmfels {dagger}


Link
Bringing up Bastardi in this blog is like bringing up politics or insurance, it just doesnt mesh in here.
Everyone should automatically figure that Bastardi is a bad forecaster to go by...well duhhh, he works for Inaccuweather..

J.Masters and StormW are better than him.

I don't personally see much of a future for 94L.
STATISTICS
Tropical geometry of statistical models

Lior Pachter, and Bernd Sturmfels {dagger}


Link
GOES IR Loop GOM

Link
Hope you are right, Jacko.
All forcasters are the same, they are right half the time. When it comes to predicting weather nobody is better than the next. Dr. Masters has been wrong a-lot and so has Bastardi niether is better than the other maybe a little luckier.
Ok folks, I will make a deal with you. If Bastardi does not preform well on 94L. Then I will cease mentioning him directly.....But, keep in mind I am just sharing thoughts from an additional source and citing the source. later..
Not going to argue, but Bastardi is not the idiot everyone makes him out to be.

And he did not say a hurricane WAS going to hit the NE last year. He gave probabilities and said that there was a HIGH CHANCE for the NE to take a direct hit.

Ok, off soapbox and not going back there.
GOM IR Loop

Link
but Bastardi-brained Inaccuweather is the worst...it said HIGH SHEAR like in the 30 mph range was the main factor in impeding 94L which is BS...it wasn't the shear at all, it was the lack of circulation and convection.
Still light rain here in Grand Cayman, but wind and seas have calmed down quite a bit , maybe the system is drifting more westward away from our area or getting weaker, I have seen this happen before just to flare back up as a storm move back ENE and side swipe us real good.
Great explanation StormW!

If I can add a little to that....

When we are tracking weak and shallow systems, we refer to the 700-850MB steering layer, since it shows currents in the lower levels of the atmosphere.
Cool - that makes sense now. Thanks so much StormW!!!!
Good grief! You people are so quick to bash like you're better than them.

Try doing his job. Not as easy as some make it out to be.
Some day the thrill will be gone
Thanks too Nash.
You guys are the best!
Jacko- What makes you think the tropics are quiet?? Didn't you say this morning that you thought the system WOULD be named???? Now you think it is doomed?

Pick a side dude!
My forcast for next season. At least one or more tropical system will affect the U.S. in some way.
Nash...I just said that if it was going to be called a TD, THEN it would get named. I didn't say I thought it was going to be named period. I don't think it will.


My forecast for next season: 3 Named Storms, 0 Hurricanes, 0 MJO hurricanes. Oh the boldness. Kudos to me next year if I'm dead on with my bold predictions.
xboxes and football.....different blog.
I still think there is too much going on weather wise due to the uncertainties.
12z GFS out through six days hasn't moved 94L.
The Weather Channel said at 11:50 Tropical Update that the Upper Level winds are too strong across the AtL and Gulf and nothing will form anytime soon and that 94L was moving south/southwest and I believe them because they are the Hurricane Authority.
170. IKE
94L seems to be losing some convection....things are winding down in the tropical Atlantic...and it does look like a noreaster type system by weeks end according to the GFS...

Link
LOL!!!!

TWC needs to have their eyes checked:-)

NW movement.
FLAVA FLAVE!!!!
155. OUFan919 4:15 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
I wouldn't trust Bastardi if my life depended on it.

It's Monday and OU still #$%^s...
How goes the invest today?
Doesn't surprise me to see 94L losing a little convection. Weak system trying to consolodate during the daytime hours.
144hrs and the GFS refuses to move 94L.
Just heard mentioned on tv a low is suppose to form off of the VA/MD coast and move up into the NE with winds around 20-25 maybe stronger.
Not only did TWC say south/southwest they also said it doesnt look to be a problem for anyone down the road. Unless of course your taking a cruise to Cancun.
TWC can't forecast to save their lives...unless it's Jim Cantore. He's the only one on that channel that makes hurricane forecasting watchable.
does anyone have a link for cancun radar , its drifting north and there is definately a low level circ.(check vis sat)
I'd take Bastardi's Salary any day thank you very much:)
94L just hasn't been able as of yet to consolodate a true center. The circulation is very broad and a LLC can form anywhere in that mess.

This is why the models are crap right now. Gotta have a center to initialize.
don't forget about Dr Lyons his pretty darn good,kind of reminds me of Max(sure wish he would come out of retirment)maybe best there ever was IMO
cowboy fans will go back down to earth when Moss, I mean, New England, exposes that Cowboy D....they should of traded for Moss....
Are the HH's supposed to investigate today?
puhleaze.....not Jim Cantore....Stephanie Abrams...She is the hurricane authority. She has her own show now with Bettis.....and she's from Miami. She even says she is.

She is who we should believe.

Back to reality and weather.....
Lyons? That guy couldn't forcast his way out of a paper bag IMHO.
Cancun Radar No loop though, at least I can't find one.
No flight today Hanna.

Cancelled. They will try again tomorrow.
Thanks Nash.
This blog can be such a sideshow sometimes....
193. IKE
Accuweather says what the GFS shows...94L crosses the Yucatan and heads into the BOC....

"A broad area of low pressure is present over the northwestern Caribbean. Satellite pictures indicate that a weak circulation may be present just off the coast of Belize. The relatively strong wind shear that was present over this system over the weekend has begun to weaken, making conditions a little more favorable for development. However, this low will drift westward over the Yucatan Peninsula over the next day or two, further inhibiting development. Once this low reemerges over the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf of Mexico later in the week, some development is possible of this system.".......

Accuweather.
Link

yep you can kinda see it south south east of cancun..
Look at the long range visiable. 94 reaches way out. Impressive system.
Stephanie Abrams is yummy.

Agree on TWC. Cantore and Dr. Steve are about the only ones to take half-way seriously.

Kristina Abernathy is absolutely horrible. It's like she hasn't bothered to learn anything about hurricanes in all the time she's been there.

Alexandra Steele is strange.
Not sure about Accuweathers assessment.

Can't really say yet where this is going without a true COC.
So, is 94 kaput??? Or on life support?? how is it looking?
What about Marshall Seese(sp)? What a fossil!
for floaters and other stuff use this site.i find it really useful - its undergoind a makeover so only atlantic floaters can be seen
Personally, I do not watch TWC's tropical update. It's a real joke to watch. I almost get irritated watching some of them. Even most news stations are hard to watch lately.
94L just needs to tighten up a bit and it will be fine. Plenty of moisture and heat energy to work with.
weathers4me...I totally agree. It would be laughable if it weren't so tragic.
Hopefully it does not develop a coc. 94 is barely moving. Watch the visiable loop Mitch reached way out like this.
205. IKE
12Z GFS shows 94L having no affect on the US of A.
All those people on the weather channel are making a lot more than us. Jim Cantore has the best job in the world. Or should I say that Bettes dude does. The one that works with Stephanie Abrams.......lol
207. bwi
Center of turning at about 17.8N, 85.6W?

Visible loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
Everyones talking about the models......fuuueeeeeeeeee on the models....

They have only gotten one storm right all year......and that was Dean......

Heck...they didnt even pick up on Felix until he was almost a major hurricane......
I don't care how much they make. They still stink. IMO.
Morning/afternoon all. Is this week going to be interesting to watch? Hope 94 leaves Mexico Honduras alone. Any opinions on timing?
LOL The only one on TWC I will watch is Cantore. He, IMO, made that tropical weather dept. He also tells it like it is. No sugar coating.
Its up in the air if and when 94L does anything......There has been quite a few model-forcasted storms in the recent weeks with nothing to show for it.......so.......take that for whats its worth
201. weathers4me 4:42 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Personally, I do not watch TWC's tropical update. It's a real joke to watch. I almost get irritated watching some of them. Even most news stations are hard to watch lately.


The more you know, the less tolerant you are of fools...
Cantore has the DREAM JOB!!!!
Models won't be much help until we get an llc and initialized. The 94L pot will just sit and boil. A perturbation of some kind will come along and a low level spin will begin. Probably, the convergence in the GOM from the west that has been moving south will create the low level swirl to get things going. Again, this is going to be "slow" to develop, but I think it will, and it may be Tuesday before we see a better-defined circulation. jawag
It's going to be a long week of watching. 94L will not be going anywhere anytime soon...
Thanks.
fsu, good point about the models ( muddles ) this year. I think that the current models are too heavily weighted in " historical " data. Unfortunately, weatherwise, we are in a whole new game, with new parameters and new rules. We just have not figured them out as yet.
I agree Cantore has the dream job. I wonder what he does during the off season. I don't see him chasing blizzards or have I missed something LOL
94 sitting and stewing sounds like a recipe for disaster. But others have done the same thing and then pooof.
I met Cantore in S FL a couple years ago. Pretty personalble
TWC is pretty good once there is a system threatening or striking the lower 48 as they like to say , they cover it quite nicely, also does the crew at CNN. Cantore is the most straightforward and to me most knowledgable Met they have there at TWC.
The problem is that 99% of the population doesnt even know what a thunderstorm looks like unless its directly over them. Much less a tropical storm. I can take people outside around 4pm and show them storms off in the distance and they think that Im crazy. Then I take them inside to look at the radar on the computer and their still puzzled. SO, most people wouldnt recognize a dull tropical update if they saw one.
if you don't like 'em, don't watch 'em, then there won't be anything to be irritated or disgusted at.
DOes anyone see this thing going poof? I see all the right ingredients unless the sheer is forecast to truly be as high as I saw earlier.
No chance of 94 affecting US if upper level patterns develop as forecast over the next week.
What mid-October storm could survive 30-40kt shear?
Shear is fine right now over the system.

IF this system moves more to the N than W, in a few days another front is expected to sweep down, which may produce shear in the 30kt range.

That is almost a week out.
In the annual stuggle between climatology and each unique season there comes a point where climatology ascends. I think we are there for this year.
228. franck 4:59 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
No chance of 94 affecting US if upper level patterns develop as forecast over the next week.
What mid-October storm could survive 30-40kt shear?



Wilma.

Although this will not be anywhere strong enough like Wilma to stay together through that shear.
I agree Pottery......

We have only about 50 years of decent records on Hurricanes. Which, isnt nothing on the grand scheme of things.....


Jim Cantore, travels to the tornado areas and to the flooding areas. He does a lot other things as well. I believe he is the boss over most of the weather channel.
Afternoon All!

All the right ingredients don't mean anything if they aren't taken advantage of.

Kind of like a chef preparing this award winning meal and nobody shows up to try it.

If a tree falls in the woods and nobody is around to hear it, does it make a noise?
weathers4me I also believe that 94L will go poof and not become anything not even a TD. It just seems so strange that all the ingredients are there but it can't get started it has to be for a reason we don't know about yet plus yes shear is going to brutually(sp?) kill it once it reaches farther up into the gulf. So I don't see 94L doing anything more then it has the last 2 days JMHO.
But you know .....no one predicted Wilma to be what she was either.....
12z CMC stalls 94L out like the rest of the models, but then moves it ENEWD at the end of the run.

Link
237. IKE
msphar 12:01 PM CDT on October 08, 2007
In the annual stuggle between climatology and each unique season there comes a point where climatology ascends. I think we are there for this year.


For 95% of the US, I think you're right.
94L should become a TD. Shear is only 5-15kts. It takes time. Once it tightens up, TD will form.
Don't worry I don't watch regularly but from time to time I will catch an update just to get a laugh. I guess as stated earlier, the more we know the less tolerent we are of fools. I guess this blog really has taught me a lot over the years. Perhaps that is why most of us get a bit upset when we know what is happening to the finest of details about these systems, even what the HH are seeing and what time they are in flight. Then we flip to the media and see the forecasters watering down and sugar coating the information to appease and cater to the general public's relative novice of the weather.. IMO of course
HWRF has an interesting model.
Looks like it develops it then the C. Front Moves it NE over Cuba towards the Keys?
weatherboyfsu ,I live in Sarasota and all my friends and co-workers look at me like I'm crazy when I point out Thunderstorms building on the sea breezes, and tell them there moving this way and getting stronger ..they think i've lost it,but I love it and can't get engough!!
the thing I remember about Wilma was how accurate the models were about path so far out. They changed very little over a week and half out. Went right over my house just as predicted. Now the intensity-- caught me a little by surprise.
Looks as if some of the barbs are making a turn and the outflow on the eastern side of 94l looks acceptional..
Cane Whisperer your post could have used some analogies next time try to add a few ok.
I think one of the problems with the Weather Channel is due to too many commercials. I remember years ago, they had time to go into detail about the tropical forecasts. Now, you maybe get 5 minutes. But oh the commercials and the promos for their own shows. It sure isn't what it used to be.
Has any one taken notice of this area of disturbed weather about 550 miles southeast of the southern windward islands. the area has pronouced rotation and is under 10 knots of shear. the area has gotten better with every frame
You will be surprised how many people have no clue to their world and what makes things work....

Some very smart businessman are beginning to catch on that there is better times to make pitches or to sell something. The atmospheric changes make humans react differently. Action, reaction......

Depending on the atmospheric pressure can make a big difference on a lot things......
What Are Opinions on the Giant ball of (barely) spinning convection SE of the Bahamas.
is the 20kt wind shear keeping that from Developing.

What is the Forcasted shear the for the next two days?
Since recent models for 94L indicates as possible movement W or NW, interested in the Northeast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Yucatan channel can check this Cancun personal meteorological station. Link
Land interaction may keep 94L from ever becomeing a real significant problem.It needs to consolidate more before anything really gets going.This once again has been the problem with most tropical cyclones this year.The environment is there for 94L to come together but the bigger question is will it actually take advantage of the present conditions. Adrian

it's becoming less and less likely that 94L will get turned towards Florida....good chance it will die out over the Yuctuan
NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST!!!!!!!!

I think a strong trough could make it do a wilma
that trough is so strong it could cause a noreaster
and then it will just break down the ridge as the trough approaches-
and with it over hot water it will likely become a
major hurricane: LOW SHEAR, EXPLOSIVE WATERS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE, Slowly developing Low Level
Center (remember as with previous october monsters
the low developed slowly).

[img]http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_120l.gif[/img]
I expect a track similar to Wilma, it will move NW
and then recurve towards Florida due to the trough,
and it will LIKELY be a major hurricane when it does so.

This has the potential to reach Category 3 satus with the
explosive heat content and near Zero Shear.

MONSTER STORMS always form in this area during October under the
current condition: MITCH, WILMA, all of which got pushed Northeast,
NOT into the BOC.
Michelle is another example. The 1921 Tampa Bay Major Hurricane
is another example. THESE are DANGEROUS SYNOPTICS.

I do NOT see the west track happening- The trough alters
the steering layers- looking at the GFS steering the 700 mb
steering layers clearly do bend with the trough and favor
a NE acceleration. I am EXTREMELY DOUBTFUL of a WEST track,
and if it DOES get into the BOC, a Trough will accelerate it Northeast
thereafter.

Also the globals point to falling heights very FAR south
into the southeast and a
VERY STRONG trough that will easily dig all the way
far south into South Florida with a Strong NE Flow along
a front and therefore advect caribbean moisture
to the Northeast.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2007100806&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Noreaster System and trough type influence extend ALL the way down
South into the Southern Gulf.

94L is therefore BY FAR the biggest threat.

SOURCE: http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL
[url=http://img338.imageshack.us/my.php?image=atlpotih4.png][img]http://img338.imageshack.us/img338 /5921/atlpotih4.th.png[/img][/url]
252. tropicsdude 1:19 PM EDT on October 08, 2007

This will never amount to anything close to wilma.
good afternoon,all
i just dont see it being strong enough to really be affected by the trough that much...
Been away for a little while...Is it my imagination or does 94L look like it is starting to dissipate on the visual Sat Loops?........(also losing convection on the IR/WV Loops).....(Go Poof?)........
lousiana, are you a met?
The only chance this has to strengthen even remotely close to major hurricane status would be to sit right where it is, with no land interaction for the entire week before moving through the channel.

Highly unlikely, but then again, we've seen the highly unlikely happen a few times this year, so.....
tropicsdude are you a met?
No not a met yet i'm starting college to get my degree though so will be hopefully in a few years
LOL Can we first see if this thing becomes a Tropical Depression first ..... I mean if flights are being cancelled by the pros I dont think there is much worry from the NHC or any other governing body... Not saying you are wrong but when you say "MONSTER STORMS always form in this area during October under the
current condition: MITCH, WILMA, all of which got pushed Northeast,
NOT into the BOC.
Michelle is another example. The 1921 Tampa Bay Major Hurricane
is another example. THESE are DANGEROUS SYNOPTICS.

and only list three storms it really doesnt impact me as a Rule rather than the exception. I think those storms are the exception not the RULE.... JMHO
263. IKE
According to the SSD site w/NCEP fronts on...94L has moved west and is up to 1004 mb's...looks like it's headed for the Yucatan/Belize area. That should weaken it further if it keeps going west and reaches land.
The flights have been cancelled because there is no well defined COC yet. Once that happens, they will task it.
I have my doubts about 94l,the tropics just don't want to let these systems form this year,even when the conditions look suitable.
Sorry Nash but I was responding to the tropics dude post
well the models have it moving nearly stationary around or on the yuctuan pennisula...yes some of the models have it turning but by then i really dont think there will be much left to it and the weaker it is the less influence the trough will have on it so the chance of florida getting a "major hurricane" in my opinion is very slim...it would have to do some serious strengthening the next few days
I know Dragonfly. I was just stating why the recon has been cancelled.
I am not a meteorologist but I can
see that atmospheric conditions are similar
to around wilma:
-high oceanic heat content
-low shear
-a low that at first takes some
time to get going

Secondly, Land interaction doesn't
mean it will always inhibit development,
if the LLC is far enough away, even 100
or 75 miles off of land it can still
develop rapidly: Humberto and Lorenzo
of this year did exactly this.
I'll say it again as a reminder to all:
Be Careful what you wish for as you might just get it.
the pressure at one weather station on the coast of belize is around 1001 mb probibly drifting wst into belize then if the pressures there have been dropping the most
SARCASM ALERT:
Sporteguy yes I am wishing for a 1921 hurricane to come destroy everything I have and to kill me too. OH goodness...

No I am NOT wishing for anything- I am going off my interpretation of the SYNOPTICS and other
ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS
Thats the point Tropics Dude 94L has no LLC no surface low and it's looking like it's going to cross the penisula this will disrupt/weaken it it may not have so much if it at least had a LLC. I really don't see 94L becoming anything more then it is right now and was yesterday and I'm not a Met just a sophmore at MSU getting my degree in Broadcst Meteorology.
Yes I could be totally wrong...nothing
is set in stone- but it seems with the synoptic
steering that a NE trajectory is more likely
NOT NOW but later on after 3+ days.
While I wait for the Carrib to do something think I'll spend a little time watching the W Coast.
Western U.S.
Bouy 40.89N 137.45W
275. NeverPanic 5:47 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
While I wait for the Carrib to do something think I'll spend a little time watching the W Coast.
Western U.S.
Bouy 40.89N 137.45W


Youch! NCal and Oregon (as well as Washington) about to take a beating!
This is first time I can say that i've noticed a real spin with 94L around 17.5N to 84/85W, The MET on TWC Dave Swartz sames to think it might take a ENE track , I think everything depends on the timing with the front coming down, my opinion only, though this is what I'm thinking myself.
Just for observations sake (before heading off to snag lunch), the most "impressive" feature in the tropics right now is actually the area North of Puerto Rico, which, is not expected to develop because of shear values...Just looks to me like it is not happening right now for 94L, unless, it is able to keep itself together over the Yucatan and re-emerge around the BOC in a few days and linger around...It is looking, to me, like quite a long shot right now.............
TropicsDude....calm down. You evidently put some time and effort into your post but I disagree with your basic premise. As EarthDragonFly pointed out, your thought that monster storms ALWAYS form in the area is incorrect. You're pointing to the exception, rather than the rule. I'd advise just keeping an eye on things. Don't panic. Be prepared, no more now than you should be all hurricane season. We don't even have a TD yet. lol
256. Michael 12:23 PM CDT on October 08, 2007
Rotation on brownsville radar


dead calm here in bville,tx

eery
on Rainbow Imagery the pressure has risen up to 1004mb but they have a dotted yellow line enxtending from the low pressure where 94L is located. What does this dotted yellow line mean? And yes turning is more evident now but convection has decreased. Look at this shot and tell me please is this yellow line a trough or what linkLink
There are two scenarios for 94L.

1) Moves more towards the W or WNW over the Yucatan and stalls there, where it would surely die and spin down.

2) Moves more towards the NW or NNW, misses the landmass and moves through the channel. Stays in the weak flow while slowly strengthening into a TS. Upper Trough comes down and sweeps it NNEWD.

That's it. Time will tell which comes to fruition.
94L has everything going for it to become a strong storm, for some reason it just can't same to capitalize on all the right conditions , though if you look clearly the last few frames does show much more organization even if the convection appears weaker/dimished.
This thing ain't going anywhere anytime soon.
The models are going crazy I wouldn't trust them as far as I could throw em. It could head nw for the next 2 days then ese then wsw then ne then nne then nw than back to the north lol.
amazinwxman, that dotted yellow line jsut before the loopsgets going is where I think the officials at the NHC think the system will mostly likely track which is ENE from what I can tell, this is my guess only, someone with more knowledge thna me might be able to confirm this or tell you exactly what it means, I'm only trying to learn here from some who knows a lot more than I do. I hardly trust models and mostly go by my experience and observation of living here in the tropics all my life.
seems to me with the expection of a few storms the GFDL has been stuck in 2005.
imagine a somthing lower than 1000mb and its not even a depression yet. Bad luck for the storm and good luck for us eh? Just wondering has there ever been 960 to 980mb storms that stayed as TS's?
if imnot mistaken did not the system that became lorenzo cross the yuc as a low and then sat and spinned up in the boc? just because it moves nw or wnw over yuc does not mean it will not form in the boc. also i mentioned juan earlier late oct hybrid hurricane which developed in shear became 90 mph hurricane did 3 loops off la/ms coast. not set in stone it has to move ne to develop also hurricane hidlda major hurricane hit la and moved east over coastal ms . track across yuc history tell us does not always mean the end lol
stormpatrol

i believe it is a stationary front
WOW! I hadn't checked up on the floater all day and that thing is really spinning although there isn't much convection.
The naked hurricane Rated-R for nudity.
In general does the spin cause the convection or vice versa?

Thanks!
frankenstorm you mean the dotted yellow line that amazinwxman was speaking about, you could be right , like i said I was only guessing I'm not really sure.
hope 94 doesnt turn into a mitch and then head towards Tampa!
Well, dry air is not the problem, plenty of moisture according to wv. This may be more of a convergence/divergence, or "capping" issue in the present. Where's StormW to explain? lol, or anyone? TIA
94L never becomes a Hurricane according to the model run ... Has that changed?
293. saveabeagle 2:15 PM EDT on October 08, 2007 Hide this comment.
In general does the spin cause the convection or vice versa?

Thanks!


The convection causes the rotation to start with, but a swirl can set off convection too. They work together to develop, but the convection comes first and is set in motion by the coriolis effect.
Not likely G35.
capping inversion—A statically stable layer at the top of the atmospheric boundary layer.
Although the word “inversion” implies that temperature increases with height, the word “capping inversion” is used more loosely for any stable layer (potential temperature increasing with height) at the top of the boundary layer. This inversion is a ubiquitous feature of the atmospheric boundary layer, formed because the troposphere is statically stable on the average, and because turbulence homogenizes air within the boundary layer, which by conservation of heat requires that a stable layer form at the top of the boundary layer. This inversion traps surface-induced turbulence and air pollutants below it, and causes the free atmosphere to not “feel” the earth's surface during fair weather (i.e., no drag, free slip, no heat or moisture from the surface, and winds are nearly geostrophic).
pressure @ 42056 has fallen to 29.69
the dotted yellow line signifies a trof...
stormpetrol- yes thats what i was talking about
301. frankenstorm 2:20 PM EDT on October 08, 2007 Hide this comment.
pressure @ 42056 has fallen to 29.69


= 1005 mb
The have now gone to only slightly favorable upper level conditions....

NHC 205 Discussion

BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS CENTERED IN THE NW CARIB NEAR
18N84W...ANALYZED 1003 MB AT 12Z. THIS LOW SITS ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT RUNS ENE FROM THE LOW TOWARD CUBA NEAR 20N78W AND
WNW OF THE LOW TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N88W. SYNOPTIC
24-HOUR PRESSURE TENDENCIES ONLY INDICATE A SLIGHT DEEPENING
SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME...1 MB. SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE
TO SHOW A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING. A
1130Z QUIKSCAT AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH LIGHT WINDS.
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED STEADY WITH PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN
77W-88W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS WESTWARD. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

306. o311
93L is just waiting for shear to relax
Adrian i dont understand how they can use the word "Slightly" When shear is currently 10 knots and below....(By the way good afternoon all!)
hmmm,can't see my avatar
1005? That's up 2 millibar since this morning
309. Floodman 2:34 PM EDT on October 08, 2007 Hide this comment.
1005? That's up 2 millibar since this morning


That's at a buoy, not the actual coc
The buoy had 1005mb 24 hours ago, diurnal pattern
Well guys and gals im going to check out the tropics and then go ahead and update my site as far as blog and some other things...If you havent noticed ive added a tropical chat room and have made my blog similar to here where you can exchange comments and have a discussion also i have a forum...Link
That buoy was only down to 1004.4 mb this morning. (1004.1 mb yesterday morning.)
Neither can I, NEwxguy...
OKay, now it's back...
Seems like the hurricane season is just about over. 94l should continue moving in a wnw direction and make landfall over the Yucatan sometime tomorrow morning and dissipate. Later this week a cold front will push through the east coast of the United States and will bring in wind shear values unfavorable to development over most of the Atlantic. Because of the lack of energy in the atmosphere and lots of dry air this should prevent any more storms from forming this year. This year has been a somewhat disappointing year for tropical activity except for the two cat 5 this year. Seams like the weather people were right this year that only 12 storms would form this year. Next year will probably be another average year with high levels of dry air and wind shear but we will see.
Ok,now I'm confused why did they take away my avatar????
Can someone tell me where to see the image of current jetstream location
Former 93L looks fairly healthy today. Convergance of 20 & divergance of 50 is impressive. It's found the good life between 2 areas of pretty unfavorable shear, so could be short lived or could be our next depression.

94L is struggling cause it's so big.
316. Astrophysics 6:41 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
Seems like the hurricane season is just about over. 94l should continue moving in a wnw direction and make landfall over the Yucatan sometime tomorrow morning and dissipate. Later this week a cold front will push through the east coast of the United States and will bring in wind shear values unfavorable to development over most of the Atlantic. Because of the lack of energy in the atmosphere and lots of dry air this should prevent any more storms from forming this year. This year has been a somewhat disappointing year for tropical activity except for the two cat 5 this year. Seams like the weather people were right this year that only 12 storms would form this year. Next year will probably be another average year with high levels of dry air and wind shear but we will see.



Shall we talk about all the points on which you're wrong before we address whether or not the season is over?
Now its back,this blog is as unpredictable as the tropics
ok astro
why do so many predict the season is over,still a ways to go,its over for the east coast.
324. IKE
Here's why 94L won't affect Florida's west coast anytime soon...from the afternoon Tampa,FL. discussion...

"Long term (wednesday night - monday)...latest models continue to
show a trough deepening over the eastern U.S. For the second half
of the week then shifting out into the Atlantic with some weak
ridging building in for early next week. At the surface a cool
front associated with the trough will move into North Florida
Thursday and into the forecast area Thursday night and Friday. The
exact timing of this boundary continues to vary between models as
well as between model runs...but it does appear it will make it
through the region no later than Saturday morning. High pressure
will build in behind the front ushering in what looks to be our
first shot of cooler drier air for the weekend. How much cooling
depends on what model or model run you like...but for now will go
close to GFS ensemble which is a good blend with daytime highs in
the lower to middle 80s and lows generally in the upper 50s to middle
60s.
Moisture will remain limited across the area through the
period with rain chances remaining about 10 percent or less. Only
exception may be across the southern zones Monday where moisture
will begin to increase from the southeast...but for now will
continue with dry forecast."
Indianapolis has just hit 90, their latest 90 degree day ever.
There is just something missing out in the tropical atlantic this year...Hopefully we can close out the year without any significant problems for the U.S.

As we approach my birthday on the 28th of this month we are also coming up on the anniversary of hurricane wilma on the 24th of october which was the last significant hurricane to impact the united states.To me the odds are in favor of this season ending up on the quiet side for us.

Central america and mexico took a beating from this years tropical cyclones but my prayers go out to them and hope there recovery process comes along smoothly. Adrian
If my comparison of this year to 1988 is correct, this may be what 94L does (or maybe not, although this is much more likely than another Mitch or Wilma):


The last storm of the season formed from a tropical wave on November 17 to the south of Haiti. It moved westward through the Caribbean Sea, and organized enough to attain tropical storm status on November 20. Keith rapidly organized, and peaked with winds of 70 mph before making landfall on the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula on the 21st. An upper-level trough forced it to the northeast, where upper-level shear and cooler, drier air weakened it to minimal storm strength, typical for November. Keith restrengthened over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and struck near Sarasota, Florida on November 23. After crossing the state, it became extratropical on the 24th near Bermuda, and became an intense extratropical system over the Atlantic with sustained winds reaching minimal hurricane force.





Look familiar? Half-naked swirl? Almost every storm in 1988 looked like this, except for Gilbert (similar to Dean), Helene and Joan (similar to Felix).

Also, while 1988 was before the post-1995 active period, I am starting to wonder if Atlantic hurricane activity has reverted to pre-1995 levels (this year has been pretty similar to other La Nina seasons during that period). Also kind of interesting that it started with a bang (1995) and ended with a bang (2005). Of course, next year may prove me wrong (assumming that an El Nino doesn't develop, but then 2004 was crazy with an El Nino present).
interesting STL
NEguy, someone in admin must be from cleveland...
Well, that's similar to what the HWRF has been showing, although the HWRF is further south than that.

Nice explanation STL.
MichaelSTL The track looks alot like what is currently possible but conditions now are alot different then when that storm developed in late november....so trackwise it looks like a good comparison but intensitywise i think it would be alot stronger then a TS.
Nice comparison, STL...the parallels are there
A big wet hello from Roatan. It rained saturday and sunday all day with continuous thunder and lightning but little wind. I guess the weather station that was here reporting is not active and I no longer have a working rain gauge... so I dont know how much we got. It's not raining right now but it is dark and damp and it just feels like the pressure is very low.
Ike, (for some reason, lol, I'm running into you today), 94L won't be hitting anything "soon" unless maybe it's the Yucatan. And, if something did develop and manage to come in the direction of FL, a "cool" front, or weak high pressure won't keep it from making a landfall. It may inhibit its strength, or influence track, but not a prohibitor. That front will be gone by the time 94L develops anyways imo. Much respect, still.
The difference from what Michael showed is, Remember in late november conditions are not very good in favor for tropical development like they are now so like i said....it would be likely that this system would become alot stronger...
And as usual, the HWRF is late on the FSU site.
329. KrazyKaneLove 6:54 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
NEguy, someone in admin must be from cleveland...

lol,good point,I didn't think of that.
Ok. 12z HWRF is out. Still moves it towards Cuba, but does not develop this at all.
Convection has increased somewhat over the LLC but only a small drift westward may put this system onshore.
pressure has dropped to 29.53in(999mb)at a weather station in belize city,there is alot of energy and I think today could really be the start off point for 94L(noel to be?)
Personally, As with alot of people i have no faith in the models untill this becomes a well-organized depression. As Dr. Masters said anyway as some models are hinting at it is possible that this system will wonder erractically for 5-7 days before really moving anywhere, That could mean it could move on shore and then turn east and move offshore just as quickly....This system is by far the most unpredictable system this season as models dont know what this system will do...This system will possibly go in a couple circles before making up its mind (it doesent have).....due to weak steering flow/currents.
Alpena, MI has now also set a record for the latest 90 degree day so late in season.
it is moving west at 6mph
335. CaneAddict 1:57 PM CDT on October 08, 2007
The difference from what Michael showed is, Remember in late november conditions are not very good in favor for tropical development like they are now so like i said....it would be likely that this system would become alot stronger...


Well, it still depends on the exact conditions; in 1999, Lenny nearly became a Category 5 in late November, although it stayed in the Caribbean.
This service provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA)
National Environmental Satellite, Data and Information Service (NESDIS)

On October 21, 1998, a tropical depression formed in the southern Caribbean Sea. One day later, the storm became a tropical storm and was given the name "Mitch". Mitch moved very little over the next few days, drifting to the northwest, and gathering strength. A sharp increase in intensity occurred between the afternoon of October 23 and October 26 during which time Mitch strengthened from a tropical storm with 60 knot winds, to a Saffir-Simpson Category 5 hurricane with winds of 155 knots.

Link


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento California
940 am PDT Monday Oct 8 2007


Discussion...
water vapor shows upper trough between 140 and 150 west may be a bit
sharper than models are indicating. This system along with a strong
cold front will track over the area Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday. Jet will pass over the region with moderate to strong
winds at the 700 mb level...along with surface pressure gradient
over northern California setting up between the offshore low and
high inland. This will bring significant winds to the forecast area.
The strongest winds should be over the southern Cascades and far
northern Sierra. A high wind watch continues over those
areas...where gusts over 60 miles per hour are possible. Will take a look to
determine whether stronger winds will extend south of I-80 as
current watch has. Breezy to windy conditions are also expected in
the valley Tuesday afternoon and night. Precipitation should begin
Tuesday morning over the coastal range and northern mountains
spreading eastward during the day...with heavier precipitation
falling Tuesday overnight. 12z NAM and GFS are trending toward a
deeper trough with higher quantitative precipitation forecast than seen in the 06z runs...which had
backed off a bit on precipitation. Snow levels are going to be fairly
high initially but will be dropping during the event as colder air
advects in. Timing of precipitation will be an issue as snow levels
reach pass levels during the day Wednesday. Snow over the Sierra
should end by Wednesday afternoon with cool and dry weather during
the day Thursday...before the next system moves in Thursday evening.


so dos that mean the storm is more S then forcast by all modes???
Roatangardener~ Hey I see we still need to send you a home weather station if we're gonna get any reading from your island.
I can move at 6 mph...
NHC has it at 18N 84W, Navy has it at 18N 86W. That is a pretty big spread so which is it?
That means that it is so poorly organized that the center is hard to find, that's what it means Cantorefan :)
lookn better every frame no sheer and something is spinning ,convection to the south and east ,and south is really just about over the center of 94L
And, as you can see by the quikscat there was not a center this morning, but a convergence line.
94L may be stuck in a hole created by Dean? lol
23 What do you think of 94L as of now?
358. UYA
94L may be stuck in a hole created by Dean? lol


LOL!


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT MON OCT 8 2007

THE GFS/ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE STRONG TROUGH
AXIS WILL DIG ACROSS FL LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND...BUT ALSO
AGREE THAT DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF FL
THIS TIME PERIOD. AT THE SFC...THE GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING A CLOD FRONT WASHING OUT AS IT APPROACHES THE CWA ON
FRIDAY. THIS FRONT BASICALLY TURNS INTO JUST A SLIGHT DEWPOINT
BOUNDARY AS IT COMES INTO SOUTH FL, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP IN
DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S EXPECTED PRIMARILY NEAR THE LAKE.
So 94L's chances are worse for development now?
Philadephia has also reached 90, which is a new daily record. However they have reached 90 as late as October 10, 1939, so it is not the record latest 90 degree day of the season
Thanks, StormW, I was curious about the "capping inversion." SkewT? Is that something we can see?
I think that La Nina has gone insane:



-4 to -5C anomalies now appearing in the Nino 3.4 region. I won't be surprised if we see one of the strongest La Ninas on record this winter (according the the MEI, it is already #10).
StormW I am looking with a cautious eye at 94L what are you thoughts. Can it make it this far up.
Any thoughts on when 94L will finally become a TD? Thanks.
StormW I am looking with a cautious eye at 94L what are you thoughts. Can it make it this far up.
------
The stronger it gets the chances are more likley. BEcause as Dr.M said it would "feel" the fron more.
Yes. I still believe this will be a TD. Winds are there. Everything is in place. Just needs to close off.
Hello everyone. I will not be making a blog today as i am sick, however i can still post for the time being...
Get better Drak.
Not surprised 94L is still disorganized... The models are in good argreement that this system will go into the Yucatan Peninsula.
hwrf really changed its tune,now really doesn't even develope 94l, brings it over the yucatan
42056 down to 29.57
sorry 29.67
Sorry you are feeling ill Drak...that is no fun.

frakenstorm thats 29.67...
383. KRL
316. Astrophysics 6:41 PM GMT on October 08, 2007 Hide this comment.
Seems like the hurricane season is just about over. 94l should continue moving in a wnw direction and make landfall over the Yucatan sometime tomorrow morning and dissipate. Later this week a cold front will push through the east coast of the United States and will bring in wind shear values unfavorable to development over most of the Atlantic. Because of the lack of energy in the atmosphere and lots of dry air this should prevent any more storms from forming this year. This year has been a somewhat disappointing year for tropical activity except for the two cat 5 this year. Seams like the weather people were right this year that only 12 storms would form this year. Next year will probably be another average year with high levels of dry air and wind shear but we will see.


Beginning to look that way.

I've been in FL since '94. With 2004 and 2005 being the only years of hurricanes in my community to deal with. So 2 out of 14 seasons so far isn't too bad. Lived in LA for 16 years and got whammed hard by the '94 Northridge quake. So batted 1 out of 16 out west. But with earthquakes you get no warning which is why I decided to go with hurricanes instead.

Overall I think that's how you have to look at natural disasters. Despite the size of even the major hurricanes, most damage still comes from storm surge and flooding, and the cone of intense damage is limited to a relatively narrow swath, and landfalling Cat 5's are rare events.

So if you don't live directly on the coast and are in a solid home, not in a flood zone, and stay fortunate to not be in the direct hardcore winds path if one does come your way, the odds of not really getting impacted by these storms every season are actually pretty darn good.

But...Belize City is down to 29.50 (998.9mb), I think that's a little different from normal diurnal pattern...
STL; I'm agreeing with you about the onset of La Nina. This La Nina cycle won't peak until next spring or summer and it is much stronger than predicted. I was expecting this La Nina to mirror last year's El Nino in intensity. This La Nina may be comparable to the 82 El Nino in strength. A weak to moderate La Nina is condusive to westward moving tropical development. Such a strong La Nina may hinder tropical development. We don't have enough data to predict how this La Nina impact the tropics. I've read several things lately about a dropoff in tropical activity world wide. That much cold water in Pacific could cause such a dropoff.
The developing Ychannel ull, competing? Or, helping to provide outflow for upper level venting of 94L as it organizes? That'd be more my guess. Latest visibles also seem to be indicating more rotating convection nearer to the surface. Could be seeing the beginning of the llc trying to close.?!
Get well soon, Drak!
388. KRL
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2007

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FOR OCT 14 - 18 2007

TODAYS 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND CANADIAN ENSMBLE MEANS AND YESTERDAYS 12Z ECMWF
ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN INDICATING A MODERATELY AMPLIFIED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST AND OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE A
RIDGE IS PROGGED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE EAST AND GULF COASTS... OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND ALASKA... WHILE ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTH/CENTRAL CONUS. THE OPERATIONAL 0Z AND 6Z GFS AND OPERATIONAL 12Z ECMWF
ARE GENERALLY SIMILAR TO THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES... AND AS USUAL... THE OPERATIONAL FORECASTS ARE MORE
AMPLFIED WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION FEATURES. THE MODELS GENERALLY SHOW GOOD
CONTINUITY WITH RESPECT TO THEIR SOLUTIONS FROM YESTERDAY AND SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE. THE PNA INDEX WHICH RECENTLY HAS BEEN
WEAKLY NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO BECOME POSITIVE BY DAY 7... REMAIN POSITIVE
THROUGH DAY 10 AND TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 14. THE NAO INDEX WHICH RECENTLY
HAS BEEN NEGATIVE IS FORECAST TO TREND TOWARDS ZERO BY DAY 7 BUT REMAIN WEAKLY
NEGATIVE THROUGH DAY 14. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS IN
COMBINATION WITH A FLOW PATTERN THAT FAVORS PACIFIC MARITIME AIR MASSES SHOULD
LEAD TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE COUNTRY. COASTAL
CALIFORNIA MAY EXPERIENCE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA/EASTERN PACIFIC.
EASTERN ALASKA IS FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NEAR TO ABOVE
MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DUE TO ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE ALEUTIANS ARE
EXPECTED TO HAVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION DUE
TO ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW. NEAR TO BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS DUE TO THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER THAT REGION. THE
PACIFC NORTHWEST AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL PLAINS ARE
FORECAST TO HAVE ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA/EASTERN PACIFIC.

TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 0Z
GFS CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL 6Z GFS CENTERED ON
DAY 8...5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE
MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8...AND 10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7.

MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: GFS SUPER ENSEMBLE MEAN AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN (TIED).

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.



8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 16 - 22 2007:

FOR WEEK 2 THE MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN INDICATED BY THE GFS SUPERENSEMBLE AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS IS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT FORECAST FOR THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD... ALTHOUGH DURING WEEK 2 A SLIGHT DEAMPLIFICATION AND SLOW PROGRESSION
OF THE FLOW REGIME IS PROGGED. THE 0Z AND 6Z OPERATIONAL GFS ARE SIMILAR TO...
BUT MORE AMPLIFED THAN... THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS WITH THE 0Z OPERATIONAL
GFS SHOWING THE LARGEST AMPLITUDE. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND NEAR TO BELOW
NORMAL ALONG THE EAST AND GULF COASTS... THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ALASKA. THE
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION ANOMALY PATTERNS EXPECTED FOR WEEK 2 ARE MOSTLY
SIMILAR TO THOSE PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE WEEK 2
ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY DISPLACED A LITTLE EASTWARD.

THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY HEIGHT PROG CONSISTS OF 5 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL
0Z GFS CENTERED ON DAY 11...10 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11...15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...45
PERCENT OF TODAY'S GFS SUPERENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11...AND 25 PERCENT
OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS ABOVE AVERAGE... 4 ON A SCALE OF
1 TO 5... DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT.


FORECASTER: R. SCHECHTER
Looking at the visible floater for 94L, what is the cloud complex that is over the coc? Is that an ULL?
There is a developing ULL N of the system.

Looks like this may not be able to take advantage of the good conditions it has been given. It may just move over the Yucatan and die.

389. hurricanehanna
Looking at the visible floater for 94L, what is the cloud complex that is over the coc? Is that an ULL?


There is no coc. That is part of the problem.
392. IKE
12Z GFDL...Link

12Z HWRF...Link

Have 94L taking up residence over the Yucatan.
What would a strong La Nina mean for S. FLA winter?
394. IKE
12Z...UKMET....Link

12Z...NOGAPS....Link

Does the same with 94L.
385. Ivansvrivr 2:59 PM CDT on October 08, 2007
STL; I'm agreeing with you about the onset of La Nina. This La Nina cycle won't peak until next spring or summer and it is much stronger than predicted. I was expecting this La Nina to mirror last year's El Nino in intensity. This La Nina may be comparable to the 82 El Nino in strength. A weak to moderate La Nina is condusive to westward moving tropical development. Such a strong La Nina may hinder tropical development. We don't have enough data to predict how this La Nina impact the tropics. I've read several things lately about a dropoff in tropical activity world wide. That much cold water in Pacific could cause such a dropoff.



Yesterday, I looked at the past La Nina events that are compared to this year, to see what their hurricane seasons were like; while they were somewhat more active than usual, they were not terribly active either (although some were during the inactive phase), but almost all did have some significant storms:



and got this:

1949 = 13 storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes - a Cat 4 hits Florida and another hits Texas
1954 = 11 storms, 8 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes - Hazel and several other hurricanes hit East Coast and a hurricane forms in December and crosses into January 1955
1964 = 12 storms, 6 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes - three hurricanes hit Florida and another hits Louisiana
1970 = 10 storms, 5 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes - Celia hits Texas
1973 = 8 storms, 4 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane - nothing of real note
1988 = 12 storms, 5 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes - strongest storm until Wilma; hits Mexico as a Cat 5 after devastating Jamaica, Joan hits Nicaragua as a Cat 4


Average = 11 storms, 5.8 hurricanes, 2.8 major hurricanes


2007 = 13 storms, 5 hurricanes (includes Karen) and 2 major hurricanes (so far) - third strongest landfalling storm hits Mexico as a Cat 5; also affects Jamaica, Felix hits Nicaragua as a Cat 5); several storms set intensification records
386. moonlightcowboy 8:06 PM GMT on October 08, 2007
The developing Ychannel ull, competing? Or, helping to provide outflow for upper level venting of 94L as it organizes? That'd be more my guess. Latest visibles also seem to be indicating more rotating convection nearer to the surface. Could be seeing the beginning of the llc trying to close.?!


It will not help venting. It will actually keep it from venting. It needs to be a high with opposite rotation.
It's been fun this year with all the what if's and this might happen or that might happen.....but in the end, thank goodness we've again had another year where our North American coasts have been spared. Texas had a bit of a bump with Humberto, but other than that we've been blessed.
398. UYA
Or....will the formation of an ULL in the area provide the energy spark for a separate or several other vortices to start up?
ok Doda - thanks. It looked like there might be one under the high level clouds.
400. IKE
LuvsStorms 3:26 PM CDT on October 08, 2007
It's been fun this year with all the what if's and this might happen or that might happen.....but in the end, thank goodness we've again had another year where our North American coasts have been spared. Texas had a bit of a bump with Humberto, but other than that we've been blessed.


I agree...and the end is in sight....for the northern GOM and the east coast.
393. Ron5244 3:22 PM CDT on October 08, 2007
What would a strong La Nina mean for S. FLA winter?


Dry; very dry, especially further north (which is also what the CPC forecasts).
Ike, Nash, you may be right, it may just die. If you look out at the forecast fronts over the next week, the "low" disappears. However, since this is such a broad area of low pressure, it wouldn't surprise me to see an llc spin up south or se of the present circulation. Many variables still, and with favorable conditions. But, I admit, things are beginning to look markedly dismal.
would a strong la niña make south florida colder than average or higher than average?
UYA, you may be onto something there! Kind of like the way we saw multiple vortices associated with 93L and that broad area of low pressure, too.

It's still a bit early, but for development to proceed, 94L has to procure an llc from somewhere!
Detroit has now hit 90 degrees, a new record and the latest 90 degree reading ever in the fall.
403. WPBWeatherBoy 4:31 PM EDT on October 08, 2007 Hide this comment.
would a strong la niña make south florida colder than average or higher than average?


I'm trying to find a link or something, but I believe it makes it WARMER than average. Not sure though
It pretty much means that the whole country will be warmer than average (note that the maps labeled "trend" account for recent climatology). For a comparison, the winter of 2005-2006 had a weak La Nina present, and I am sure everybody knows what it was like.
La Niña often features drier than normal conditions in the Southwest in late summer through the subsequent winter. Drier than normal conditions also typically occur in the Central Plains in the fall and in the Southeast in the winter. In contrast, the Pacific Northwest is more likely to be wetter than normal in the late fall and early winter with the presence of a well-established La Niña. Additionally, on average La Niña winters are warmer than normal in the Southeast and colder than normal in the Northwest.
In my area it makes it dryer too in winter.
Lastest sat over 94L looking like NOEL is forming.......Thunderstorms are forming on the southern half of the circulation.........
Any other season I would be pleased to not see a storm but this year with the drought on the Florida West Coast up to the panhandle we really need the rain! Hopefully some of the low pressure can remain once the front passes by and it might pull up to the north. I've never seen so many invests fail so far....
Whats up St Simons?? Havent seen you in a while...
Well that ruins my year, la niña probably wont let the temperature dip as low as last year during winter in S.Florida
I am with you charlotte, while we don't need 100+ mile an hour winds, we do need the moisture. I am hoping that we get something out of this one! We are about to enter into the dry season...dry!
417. IKE
Panhandle of Florida.......no rain for at least a week...cooler this weekend....

"Friday through Monday
Mostly clear. Highs 81 to 84. Lows 53 to 58 inland...59 to 63 at the coast.".........


That'll cool the GOM water temps down...
I am here from time to time fsu--although I post more in weatherguy03's blog. The new format reminds me of a cheesy online dating site, lol.
403. WPBWeatherBoy 4:31 PM EDT on October 08, 2007 Hide this comment.
would a strong la niña make south florida colder than average or higher than average?

I'm trying to find a link or something, but I believe it makes it WARMER than average. Not sure though


I will also have to dig up the article but, a La Nina usually means a cooler than normal winter for South Florida. Low Pressure systems typically ride higher up in the CONUS due to high pressure on the east coast during a La Nina, allowing cooler Arctic air to penetrate further south. Give me some time but, I will find that article.
420. IKE
StSimonsIslandGAGuy 3:44 PM CDT on October 08, 2007
I am here from time to time fsu--although I post more in weatherguy03's blog. The new format reminds me of a cheesy online dating site, lol.


LOL. You do have a point.

MEMO to WU: I like your new sight...not so sure about avatars on a weather blog....MLB baseball forums have em too though...so whatever.
407. jphurricane2006 8:35 PM GMT on October 08, 2007 Hide this comment.
afternoon all

Im in for a quick second

ULLs dont always inhibit development, just depends on where it is in relation


...thanks, for adding that JP. I know I've read that somewhere!
419. TheCaneWhisperer 4:45 PM EDT on October 08, 2007 Hide this comment.
403. WPBWeatherBoy 4:31 PM EDT on October 08, 2007 Hide this comment.
would a strong la niña make south florida colder than average or higher than average?

I'm trying to find a link or something, but I believe it makes it WARMER than average. Not sure though

I will also have to dig up the article but, a La Nina usually means a cooler than normal winter for South Florida. Low Pressure systems typically ride higher up in the CONUS due to high pressure on the east coast during a La Nina, allowing cooler Arctic air to penetrate further south. Give me some time but, I will find that article.


OOoh. I'm glad I was wrong because I like the cold. YES! I hope you're right about it being colder
423. IKE
From everything I've seen, it looks like Florida is gonna miss out on most or all of the rain from 94L...the state could use it.
424. beell
Modified longitude in bold
Maybe one factor inhibiting development is the lack of a good exhaust system in the upper levels. Check the upper cloud on vis right over a suspect area (17N 86.5). Looks calm up there. If you're pro development, a bit of shear induced upper outflow might help. Lack of inflow does not appear to be a big problem. A more robust outflow would overcome capping/inversion stuff. We really should be seeing some good solid-not wispy outflow by now. cimss seems to show a bit of a "pink arrow antic kink", but maybe not as good as analyzed -as always imho.
First....I believe that I finally see a LLC. Just needs to close off on the south side. This could allow 94L to get somewhat stronger quicker than the models are allowing for. This in turn could cause the models to shift from what we see now. One thing that we haven't sen this year that we normally do see is a drastic model shift. Just my gut feeling. I'm not a Met, but I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night.
We may have La Nina; but old-weather wise tales have it, that if there is an abundance of acorns, it usually means that there'll be a cold winter. We've had TONS this year. More than ever since before Katrina. Of course, Katrina probably blew most of them away that year!!!
It's really funny, because if it rained as much as it has thus far in fla, back in Maryland, we would still be under water, yet here in Fla, we are at -7 inches (I think).
beell, I like your assessment and thinking!
The cold is great unless u get locked out of ur house in the middle of the night and its about 40 degrees lol
430. IKE
NEW BLOG!
431. beell
thanks mlc-likewise Few more of us out there to.
try getting locked out of your house in -20 deg wind chill.Can you say extra set of keys??
looks like you are married weatherboy...LOL
lol no im 16
You must be talking about the other weatherboy...lol
I wish i was married...........lol
lol newxguy i dont think the cold would matter at that temperature u wouldnt be able to feel anything
Very bright for 16!!!
I was asking earlier if anyone knew a link for the jet stream images. Does the la Nina event keep the jet stream further north?
The Tropical Weather Outlook is on the positive for development.....check it out....
CosmicEvents..that was good..."I did stay at a Holiday Inn Express last night"!
What would a strong La Nina mean for S. FLA winter?

I have experienced 2 La nina winters in Fl. Both had a late season system coming out of the W.Carrib. then warm, dry on average. Jet stream stayed way north for most of winter. Late season Killing freeze/ frost caused by Jet stream damming cold polar air eventually breaking through. ('85 citrus killer). No rain to speak of in spring(1999 fire season) then average summer rainy season, Eastern seaboard hurricane Gloria in 85, Floyd in 1999. Other La Ninas were weaker,less dramatic.
With La Nina, whatever you get is usually amplified. Drought, flood heat, cold. There are other players in the atmospheric picture besides La Nina so nothing is set in stone, but so far every cold front this year has been much weaker than expected. That is the usual la nina pattern.
Good evening all, I see that 94L is starting to organize nicely as convection is starting to consolidate around the center, And some banding is evident on satellite to the north of the center. Shear immediatly over the center/low is current 5 knots which should not be a problem for 94L as thats a very favorable level. Near by buoy readings indicate a that the lowest pressure currently recorded is 1004 mb.....I expect a depression to form from this area tomorrow.
Looking at the satellite imagery for 94L I can see the circulation ENE of Belize but it is just one soupy mess of clouds in the NW Carib.
Stormw...what is your latest take of 94L...The TW Outlook sounded positive for development and better organization for toda. Are you buying that?
Hello StormW! I notice the blog is quiet tonight....Well for those of you on here that want something interesting go to my website (Tropical Weather website), Where i have updated my blog and added a live tropical Chat there!!! I have a few moderators that will keep the trolls and people that act inappropiatly out of the chat!
CaneAddict..Where did everyone go? It's mysteriously quiet....Did everyone give up?
I dont know...Thats a good question...Why dont you go to my website and go to "Tropical Chat" and we will talk live on there untill the blog heats up. Plus i want your opinion on my blog update considering im a 15 year old high school student.
What do you guys think coming from a 15 year old??

Currently there is one main area with potential to develop in the Atlantic basin. This area is labeled Invest 94L. Based on satellite presentation, Throughout the day today this system has become better organized. Deep/Intense convection has begun to consolidate around the center/low of 94L and on satellite it is also evident that some banding features are present, mainly to the north of the low pressure area. Shear over this area is no problem at all, the level of shear immediatly over the system is about 5 knots. Which is a very favorable level for tropical development. Shear is expected to remain below 10 knots through Wednesday at the least. Near by buoy readings indicate that pressure continues to decrease in the area 94L is in and the lowest pressure reading at the current time is 1004 mb. This decrease determines that this system is organizing and is on its way to becoming a depression and i expect a depression to form in this area by tommorow evening at the latest. After that it is highly uncertain as to where this system will go or how strong it will get. Several models hint at this system wandering erractically for up to 6 days in the same general area the reason this scenario could possibly materilize is due to a weak steering flow/weak steering currents. Other models hint at it running straight into the Yucatan Pennisula and dissipating. In the long term the models have no clue as to what this system will do, In other words the models are all over the place and there is really no good agreement as to where this system will go. Some models hint at this system getting caught or pulled north into the west coast of Florida by a trough expected to swing down later this week, While some models just totally dissipate this system. I suggest all residents from the Gulf coast to the Yucatan and caribbean islands to monitor this area closely in the coming days. Elsewhere development is not anticipated for at least the next 48 hours.

I will have an update no later then 3 PM tomorrow.(Tuesday).
CaneAddict that was nice...When I was your age I dreamed of getting a Meteorology degree..If that's what you like, go for it...There's a great feeling doing a job you love....I was fortunate to work in the National Weather Service for 14 years as a Met Tech but never got a degree in Meteorology. I wished I did because it kept me from progressing. However, I did enjoy my time working on radar, upper air and flight briefing....Unfortunately the national Weather Service stramlined itself and there was very little future for met Techs. I have a college degree but not in Meteorology which I earned later...
Thanks Charloote.