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Western Caribbean disturbance 98L a threat to develop; Otto weakening

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:48 PM GMT on October 09, 2010

An area of disturbed weather (98L) is in the Western Caribbean, a few hundred miles east of the coast of Nicaragua. The disturbance has a modest and slowly increasing amount of intense thunderstorms, and is showing some spin. The disturbance is drifting northwest at less than 5 mph, and is under a moderate 15 knots of wind shear. Dry air in the Western Caribbean has been interfering with development, but 98L is now generating enough thunderstorms that the environment in the Western Caribbean is moistening, which will support further development. Pressures at Colombia's San Andres Island near the center of 98L are not falling, and satellite imagery show disturbed weather only over a very modest portion of the Caribbean, so any development today will be slow to occur.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 98L.

Forecast for 98L
98L is likely to bring heavy rains to northeastern Honduras and Nicaragua on Sunday, and possibly the Cayman Islands and Jamaica as well. The latest SHIPS model forecast calls for wind shear to stay in the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, through Tuesday. This should allow 98L to reach tropical depression status early next week, though NHC is only calling for a 20% chance of 98L becoming a tropical depression by Monday morning. The GFDL and HWRF models are the most aggressive developing 98L. These models predict 98L will intensify into Tropical Storm Paula by Monday, move northwest and then north, and pass through the Cayman Islands on Monday night and Tuesday morning as a tropical storm. Paula would then hit western or central Cuba as a hurricane on Tuesday or Wednesday, brush the Florida Keys, then accelerate northeastward through the western Bahamas on Wednesday or Thursday. This is probably too aggressive of a forecast, given 98L's current small size and lack of organization. The UKMET model also develops 98L, but keeps the storm in the Western Caribbean over the next seven days. The NOGAPS model keeps 98L weak and predicts a more west-northwesterly motion into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The GFS and ECMWF models do not develop 98L. One argument against the development of 98L would be that the phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is currently promoting sinking, stable air over the Western Caribbean, which tends to make the atmosphere dryer and more stable. However, I think that 98L will spend enough time in the Western Caribbean to overcome the relatively stable, dry air, and become a tropical depression or tropical storm by Tuesday. The likelihood of the storm hitting Cuba versus moving more to the west-northwest and hitting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula is difficult to call at this point.

Otto weakening, pulling away from the the islands
The deluge has finally ended for Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands from Hurricane Otto. This is welcome news in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands, where Otto and its precursor storminess dumped 15.25" of rain over the past eight days. On average, St.Thomas expects to receive just 1.44" of rain during the first eight days of October. Satellite imagery shows that Otto is beginning to suffer the ill-effects of high wind shear of 20 - 30 knots. The cloud pattern has become distorted and non-symmetric, with the clouds on the southwest side of the storm being eaten away by the strong upper-level winds from the southwest creating the shear. Otto will continue to deteriorate due to increasing wind shear until the storm transitions into an extratropical storm on Monday.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Otto taken by NASA's MODIS instrument on their Terra satellite at 11:05 am EDT October 8, 2010. Image credit: NASA.


A challenge to the validity of the world extreme heat record of 136.4°F (58°C) at Al Aziza, Libya
One of the "sacred cows" of world weather extremes has been the widely reported "hottest temperature ever recorded on earth", a reading of 58°C (136.4°F) reported from Al Azizia, Libya on Sept. 13, 1922. In a remarkable piece of research, our featured Weather Extremes blogger Christopher C. Burt concludes: the temperature observations at Al Azizia prior to 1927 (when the site and instruments were changed) are obviously invalid. The shelter housing the thermometer was most likely over exposed and measuring heat radiating of off the black-tarred concrete of the terrace on which it was placed.

Has Mr. Burt slain one of meteorology's most sacred cows? You be the judge. Check out the full story at his blog.

I'll have an update Sunday by 2pm EDT.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow!! I just put on the shutters on the East side of my house, you know the wing nut ones , they are great though , never lost a one in Ivan, Well for once I see my guess was spot on 60% chance from the NHC, well what can I say, pops another cold coors light LOL!!!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys wow I left and then came back finding 98L on 60% wow so are we looking at TD 18 by tomrrow


Seems quite likely, and Hurricane Paula by mid-week!
Quoting gordydunnot:
98l looking good probably will play for the Seminoles and go wide right go Canes Game time baby.Never thought I would say this love you Steve Spurrier.



lol...rub it in why don't you,....lol

yeah to repeat natl championships is tough. i think bama (especially mcelroy) has alot of seniors also looking out for their nfl career. they along with the coaching staff simply did not come prepared to play.
I think 98L has a shot at becoming a descent hurricane before hitting Cuba or where ever it hits if conditions are good enough.
Quoting Ameister12:
I think 98L has a shot at becoming a descent hurricane before hitting Cuba.


it very well could. the upper levels show a weak high pressure just to the west of 98L over mexico. it doesn't appear to be interfering with 98's development, and it is holding back westerlies all the way up to cuba.
98L is exploding in convection!
Quoting Ameister12:
I think 98L has a shot at becoming a descent hurricane before hitting Cuba.


dont forget about Florida it has the potential to pull a charley or wilma on us folks i see a better possibility for a wilma track right now
wow invest 98L
Yellow to red in just a few ... I believe it; however, our research group that left for the Dry Tortugas early this morning will be back by Wednesday.
510. JLPR2
Impressive, 98L is looking better convection-wise it would really surprise me if we get Paula this week, which seems likely as of now. :|
when and if we get 99L i wounder if that will be come a name storm

1. SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 160 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE NICARAGUA-HONDURAS BORDER HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME
BETTER DEFINED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW...AND ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH
Quoting weatherlover94:


dont forget about Florida it has the potential to pull a charley or wilma on us folks i see a better possibility for a wilma track right now

Yeah, Florida should defiantly watch 98L.
To bad for Nick Satan.

As for 98L I hope it doesn't amount to much for our friends in the Caymans.
Quoting Tazmanian:
when and if we get 99L i wounder if that will be come a name storm


i would say so we still have over a month to go and most of the forecasters say we may even have storms into the off season this year....we may go all the way down the list again!

round 3


90L be comes hermine

91L be comes IGOR

92L be comes .KARL


93L be comes JULIA

94L be comes LISA


95L be comes Matthew

96L be comes NICOLE

97L be comes Otto



this would be the 1st time evere that a round had all name storm and not one bust thats why o ask if 99L would be come a name storm hey 99L has not yet had a turn
Quoting 954FtLCane:
To bad for Nick Satan.

As for 98L I hope it doesn't amount to much for our friends in the Caymans.
lol...Who is Nick satan ?
Quoting JLPR2:
Impressive, 98L is looking better convection-wise it would really surprise me if we get Paula this week, which seems likely as of now. :|


i think she (98L) has absorbed alot of the moisture that Otto sent south as he broke the trough. if she can gain her own environment she can certainly start generating her own little Private Idaho out there and feed on her own convection, tightening circulation. Otto isn't kicking as much moisture directly in but a lot of what he is leaving behind is headed west along the African trade winds. I think that disorganized system moving into Mexico on the Pacific side is going to play into this scenario in the end.

It does appear that convection is growing around 120-150w/20n, it hasn't moved east with the disorganized line of thicker convection very much, but it does appear to be gaining moisture. it also appears that convection is growing in front of the system to the east heading into Mexico. cloud cover over Mexico is growing slightly and it appears to be then sending it towards the central GOM area around and between the weak high pressure centers. convection and small flare ups have been persistent along the central pacific Mexican coastline since early morning today.

in the next 2-3 days we may see the dry air bubble in the GOM break faster and faster.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
To bad for Nick Satan.

As for 98L I hope it doesn't amount to much for our friends in the Caymans.
I hope not either. Thanks for the thoughts.
Quoting 954FtLCane:
To bad for Nick Satan.

As for 98L I hope it doesn't amount to much for our friends in the Caymans.
Thats the DEVIL to you!!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I hope not either. Thanks for the thoughts.


hope its not to bad on them either i also hope its not to bad when it hits ucitan peninsula or florida if not both
Quoting weatherlover94:


hope its not to bad on them either i also hope its not to bad when it hits ucitan peninsula or florida if not both
Thanks. Some models earlier were saying chance for RI. I sure hope they are wrong.
Rest of the year prediction:

October: 2 (Not including Otto)
November: 1
December: Possibly 1

I think we will end up with 18-19 named storms.
Good Evening all.
Been out all day.

I have never seen the GOM and the southern and central USA look so cloud-free..... Incredible!

98L is looking a lot better than a it did this morning. Up to 60%...
I have to admit, that it is looking better than I thought it would (this is why you should never listen to me).
Still a small area of heavy convection, but showing some possibilities tonight.

Jamaica under Heavy Manners again.
Very sorry about that.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 091500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 09 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-130

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.0N 82.0W AT 11/1800Z.

I see no HHs til the 11th?
Well I'm be darned, it actually went up to 60%. I knew it deserved it, but I didn't think the NHC would actually do it!
528. beell
Quoting Tazmanian:

round 3


90L be comes hermine

91L be comes IGOR

92L be comes .KARL


93L be comes JULIA

94L be comes LISA


95L be comes Matthew

96L be comes NICOLE

97L be comes Otto



this would be the 1st time evere that a round had all name storm and not one bust thats why o ask if 99L would be come a name storm hey 99L has not yet had a turn


That's a rare string of invest-to-storms, Taz.
Thanks.
Quoting pottery:
Good Evening all.
Been out all day.

I have never seen the GOM and the southern and central USA look so cloud-free..... Incredible!

98L is looking a lot better than a it did this morning. Up to 60%...
I have to admit, that it is looking better than I thought it would (this is why you should never listen to me).
Still a small area of heavy convection, but showing some possibilities tonight.

Jamaica under Heavy Manners again.
Very sorry about that.

yep, My brother just talked with a friend in Montego Bay, its coming down there hard , they need a break now!
Quoting stormpetrol:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 091500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 09 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-130

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
IN WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.0N 82.0W AT 11/1800Z.

I see no HHs til the 11th?
They can send an untasked mission if they think it is warranted.
60% ??

Well, they call the shots. Don't see it myself but what the heck.
OK Nick Saban = Nick satan. After he did what he did to the Miami Dolphins and Miami when he coached them, enough of that or I'll earn a 9 hour ban like I did last week if I keep splaining. Google it as Hillary would say.
Now for those weather peeps, is there really any chance 98 can effect so fla? I tend to think it more of a Cuba/Cayman storm but I may be wrong. Honestly I hope it doesn't cause a problem for anyone.
By the way nice nice blog tonite, thanks y'all!!
Oh and Go 'Canes!
Quoting stormpetrol:

yep, My brother just talked with a friend in Montego Bay, its coming down there hard , they need a break now!


60 %. You win the cookie LOL
535. txjac
Novice question ..please

Could those two big red blobs seperate? With one moving more north and the other movine west/north? Or will the tightten up? Thanks
Quoting Tazmanian:

round 3


90L be comes hermine

91L be comes IGOR

92L be comes .KARL


93L be comes JULIA

94L be comes LISA


95L be comes Matthew

96L be comes NICOLE

97L be comes Otto



this would be the 1st time evere that a round had all name storm and not one bust thats why o ask if 99L would be come a name storm hey 99L has not yet had a turn

Very impressive!
This season really made up for its slow start.
Quoting Grothar:


impressive looking on the west side of 98L. She certainly looks like she is wanting to band up. and the last 2 hours have shown huge convection blowing up. i think she may be gearing up to start cycling faster as she gains strength over the next 24 hours.
Quoting kmanislander:
60% ??

Well, they call the shots. Don't see it myself but what the heck.
Tell you something Kman, I have read your posts for quite a while, and you are usually on the mark with the storms. I have a feeling you have been tracking these for a while though...Here comes the mean green..
Tropical Depression #18 likely tomorrow
Quoting kmanislander:


60 %. You win the cookie LOL

LMAO!! About time! But seriously I'm taking 98L seriously, don't want to be caught off guard!
Quoting hydrus:
Tell you something Kman, I have read your posts for quite a while, and you are usually on the mark with the storms. I have a feeling you have been tracking these for a while though...Here comes the mean green..


The 60% can only be based upon the impressive circulation but certainly not on the vertical structure or convection, both of which have been marginal at best.
Quoting hydrus:
Tell you something Kman, I have read your posts for quite a while, and you are usually on the mark with the storms. I have a feeling you have been tracking these for a while though...Here comes the mean green..


Is green good or bad?
I think 98L is trying to become official before my birthday, not exactly a good gift but it's the thought that counts. Hopefully this will stay off the coast nobody in Central america needs anymore rain, Cuba and USA have had it pretty easy we could take a minimal hurricane for them. Still everyone needs to watch and stay safe.
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Is green good or bad?

Depends on whether you need to cross, or not.
Quoting stormpetrol:

LMAO!! About time! But seriously I'm taking 98L seriously, don't want to be caught off guard!


I agree with that, especially with no stores open until Monday.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/hpwv.html

western pacific water vapor loop
Quoting Neapolitan:
Otto has passed Lisa to take seventh place on the 2010 season ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) list. As of the 5PM TWO, Otto's ACE stands at 3.9925, putting him ahead of those storms in 8th through 15th place (respectively, Lisa, Fiona, Colin, Matthew, Hermine, Bonnie, Gaston, and Nicole). Otto is still nearly two full ACE units behind 6th place Karl, and--given his current and forecast state--there's absolutely no way he'll catch up.

As of 5:00PM EDT, then:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting GoodOleBudSir:


Is green good or bad?
....oooh weeee,pass that mean green man!!!,lol
Quoting stormpetrol:

LMAO!! About time! But seriously I'm taking 98L seriously, don't want to be caught off guard!

You could be totally right though, they always say bet on a winner , not a loser and you're definitely a winner IMO, but there is just an outside chance of a lucky or unlucky blow, literally!! :)
some of that moisture to the N.E.of 98L may swing over to its N.W. and help push that dry air away from the circulation...
Saturday evening means rib eyes on the smoker grill LOL

Back later
Round #1

90L - bust

91L - bust

92L - bust

93L - Alex

94L - bust

95L - bust

96L - Tropical Depression #2

97L - Bonnie

98L - bust

99L - bust

Round #2

90L - bust

91L - Colin

92L - bust

93L - bust

94L - Tropical Depression #5

95L - Danielle

96L - Earl

97L - Fiona

98L - Gaston

99L - bust

Round 3

90L - Hermine

91L - Igor

92L - Julia

93L - Karl

94L - Lisa

95L - Matthew

96L - Nicole

97L - Otto

98L - Paula?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks. Some models earlier were saying chance for RI. I sure hope they are wrong.


me to buddy
553. beell
Quoting txjac:
Novice question ..please

Could those two big red blobs seperate? With one moving more north and the other movine west/north? Or will the tightten up? Thanks


imo, don't think the blobs will tighten up. I think we're looking at two separate lobes of vorticity (an ascending spin). One at each end of a westward drifting trough (elongated area of low pressure) stretched N/S across the Caribbean. Pretty sure the southern end is where the action is.
Quoting kmanislander:


I agree with that, especially with no stores open until Monday.
Why no stores until Monday?
Quoting hydrus:
Why no stores until Monday?


Sunday Trading Law. Only drug stores and gas stations open here on Sundays. No hardware or grocery stores allowed to open
Quoting hydrus:
Tell you something Kman, I have read your posts for quite a while, and you are usually on the mark with the storms. I have a feeling you have been tracking these for a while though...Here comes the mean green..

Is the ball-o-clouds over the center of 98L a CDO or something?
Quoting hydrus:
some of that moisture to the N.E.of 98L may swing over to its N.W. and help push that dry air away from the circulation...



yeah look at how she is starting to chew into the dry air to the northwest of her. 98L looks like if she could continue to remain south for awhile she could chew into the dry air over time as she drags moisture from the east (from Otto's remnants) while the western pacific storm feeds some moisture into the central GOM area. You can see that big chunk to the northwest of her center. it looks like she took a bite of the light tan pie and she has already consumed some of it, and began to neutralize the center of what hasn't been swallowed. All that convection flaring up to the northeast of her could feed back down and around to help her break through that dry air.
RI index for 98L

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%)
Quoting Grothar:


well we have to wait and see what happens over night see if 98L can hold on to the convection it got today or if it looses it all and has to start all over again tomorrow
defiantly looks like today's convection has waned but a nice little blow up of new convection near the center
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Is the ball-o-clouds over the center of 98L a CDO or something?
I cannot tell. I would bet it is close though...Things are moistening up a little more..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

i think if 98L gets its act together before hitting all that dry air in the GOM when it gets into the the dry air if its strong enough it shouldnt affect it much
Light to moderate rain in Kingston Jamaica since noon with occasional outbursts of heavy showers. No wind to speak of where I am in Kingston. After the effects of what became Tropical Storm Nicole, we are hoping this system does not linger too long.
Quoting weatherlover94:


well we have to wait and see what happens over night see if 98L can hold on to the convection it got today or if it looses it all and has to start all over again tomorrow


It will be moving into an area of high shear soon, but if the anticyclone can move in tandem and move over the main convection, it could maintain a little strength.

Quoting weatherlover94:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

i think if 98L gets its act together before hitting all that dry air in the GOM when it gets into the the dry air if its strong enough it shouldnt affect it much

The moisture to the north/north east of 98l could be a shield for it, which would be good for it and bad for us.
Quoting hydrus:
I cannot tell. I would bet it is close though...Things are moistening up a little more..

Otto looks extratropical or close to being that way...
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html

GOM water vapor loop.

Although not real dense it does appear that moisture is starting to consolidate along the Mexican GOM seaboard. Not much in front or to the north to stop the moisture feed out of 120-150w/10-20n in the Pacific. The moisture level may increase significantly across the central GOM as the moisture trains from 120W/20N to 100W/20-30N and into the gulf
POSS.T.C.F.A.
XX/INV/98L
MARK
13.23N/80.55W
Quoting roleli:
Light to moderate rain in Kingston Jamaica since noon with occasional outbursts of heavy showers. No wind to speak of where I am in Kingston. After the effects of what became Tropical Storm Nicole, we are hoping this system does not linger too long.


it could get picked up by a front once it starts north i think thats what may drive it into Florida a cold front is what took Charley and Wilma into Florida well Charley was once going to northern Florida and then to Tampa bended north east and hit near port Charlotte punta gorda because of the cold front and it will all depend on size on who gets affected Wilma was a very large storm and Charley was a very small storm as what i call Charley a doughnut storm the glazed krispy kreme LOL
40 to 50mph sheara few hundred miles north of the system. any signs of this leaving?
Quoting weatherlover94:


it could get picked up by a front once it starts north i think thats what may drive it into Florida a cold front is what took Charley and Wilma into Florida well Charley was once going to northern Florida and then to Tampa bended north east and hit near port Charlotte punta gorda because of the cold front and it will all depend on size on who gets affected Wilma was a very large storm and Charley was a very small storm as what i call Charley a doughnut storm the glazed krispy kreme LOL

it will likely miss florida to the south if it develops
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Otto looks extratropical or close to being that way...
Yep..Its pulling in dry air too...
Quoting weatherlover94:


it could get picked up by a front once it starts north i think thats what may drive it into Florida a cold front is what took Charley and Wilma into Florida well Charley was once going to northern Florida and then to Tampa bended north east and hit near port Charlotte punta gorda because of the cold front and it will all depend on size on who gets affected Wilma was a very large storm and Charley was a very small storm as what i call Charley a doughnut storm the glazed krispy kreme LOL


I believe it was a trough that moved Wilma, not a front.
Quoting Grothar:


I believe it was a trough that moved Wilma, not a front.

Grothar, Do you think the anticyclone will slide over with the system? If not, the system is going to move into some heafty shear
A picture is worth a thousand words...

Quoting hydrus:
Yep..Its pulling in dry air too...


hydrus, hate to admit it, but you are getting darn good at posting those images. Who says you can't teach an old dog new tricks?
Quoting weatherman12345:

it will likely miss florida to the south if it develops


its all a wait and see thing really
Quoting wxhatt:
A picture is worth a thousand words...




she is staring at the stars now... lol
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



she is staring at the stars now... lol


yep, LOL
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



she is staring at the stars now... lol


it kinda looks like she is wearing one of those marti gras masks that women hold up in front of their eyes on a stick. not the full masks, just the ones that have the upper cheekbones and eye sockets with fancy artistic swirling and french crescents carved in. lol
Quoting weatherman12345:

Grothar, Do you think the anticyclone will slide over with the system? If not, the system is going to move into some heafty shear


If the system gets stronger than it is now, yes I do. As systems become stronger, they begin to influence the atmosphere around them, including creating their own moisture field. However, with the MJO like it is, there is an awful lot of dry air at all levels of the atmosphere. Looks like it will have to struggle a little.
Quoting Grothar:


I believe it was a trough that moved Wilma, not a front.
It was a trough that shifted Charley,s path also...
ATCF says Otto's now a 60-knot, 988mb tropical storm. As WeatherNerdPR pointed out, his extratropical transition doesn't look like it's going to wait around until Monday...
Quoting hydrus:
It was a trough that shifted Charley,s path also...


i knew it was 1 of the 2
Quoting hydrus:
It was a trough that shifted Charley,s path also...


Hey, I didn't want to completely embarrass the young man on the blog by mentioning both, the way you just did to me now. LOL Boy, one compliment and you get an attitude.
Quoting Grothar:


If the system gets stronger than it is now, yes I do. As systems become stronger, they begin to influence the atmosphere around them, including creating their own moisture field. However, with the MJO like it is, there is an awful lot of dry air at all levels of the atmosphere. Looks like it will have to struggle a little.

agree, it will probably struggle one way or another. looks like it is creating its own moisture field as of now. last few frames it is cutting through abit of the dry air to its north
Quoting Grothar:


I believe it was a trough that moved Wilma, not a front.


"A powerful trough turned the hurricane to the northeast and accelerated its forward motion."

Link
Quoting weatherlover94:


i knew it was 1 of the 2

both systems steared to the east or NE by a trough.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, I didn't want to completely embarrass the young man on the blog by mentioning both, the way you just did to me now. LOL Boy, one compliment and you get an attitude.

So Groth you're telling me a trough made it 50 degrees here (Fort Lauderdale) the morning after Wilma was gone? or was it a front?
i think the cape verde season is pretty much over i think the rest of our development will be home grown
i this now noted that Hurricane Julia got upgrade too 140mph winds

this go down anf you see that Hurricane Julia got upgrade

Link
You just called me old AND a canine in the same breath(post). Please keep the Geritol on the nightstand where you wont forget to use it....hhhhaaaaaaaa..:)
...and ATCF says 98L has dropped another millibar to 1007, though it still has winds of 25 knots. 13.5N / 81.2W

AL, 98, 2010101000, , BEST, 0, 135N, 812W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

Quoting hydrus:
You just called me old AND a canine in the same breath(post). Please keep the Geritol on the nightstand where you wont forget to use it....hhhhaaaaaaaa..:)

LOL! but mean at the same time
i all so noted that Tropical Storm Matthew got upgrade from 50mph winds too 60 mph winds


Link
Quoting Neapolitan:
...and ATCF says 98L has dropped another millibar to 1007, though it still has winds of 25 knots. 13.5N / 81.2W

AL, 98, 2010101000, , BEST, 0, 135N, 812W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,



ah i dont think we will have any trouble getting paula out of this one 98L
all so Tropical Storm Hermine got upgrade from 60 mph winds too 65 mph winds



Link
if she can stay stationary for long enough and chew away at the dry air while building in strength she could become quite powerful. Also, the longer she stalls down there the more the dry air is going to disappear as moisture gets pumped westward into the GOM.
Quoting weatherman12345:

LOL! but mean at the same time
I am a harmless fuzzball...
601. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:
i all so noted that Tropical Storm Matthew got upgrade from 50mph winds too 60 mph winds


Link


Matthew had 60mph, no upgrade there.

Oh and Hermine had 65mph at landfall, no upgrade there either.
Tropical Storm Fiona got upgrade from 60 mph winds too 65 mph winds


Link
Quoting Tazmanian:
all so Tropical Storm Hermine got upgrade from 60 mph winds too 65 mph winds



Link

I thought Hermine already had 65 mph.
Quoting weatherlover94:


ah i dont think we will have any trouble getting paula out of this one 98L

Basically 360 miles south of Grand Cayman according to that!
Quoting JLPR2:


Matthew had 60mph, no upgrade there.



where you see no upgrade from it had 65mph winds
09/2345 UTC 12.7N 81.0W T1.5/1.5 98L -- Atlantic

AL, 98, 2010101000, 135N, 812W, 25, 1007
Quoting stormpetrol:

Basically 360 miles south of Grand Cayman according to that!


this could be the big one some people have been waiting for this year not me i hope it goes away and doesnt develop
Quoting Ameister12:

I thought Hermine already had 65 mph.




nop they had upgrade it too 65 mph winds

if you guys are looking at this then for get it you will olny see the upgrades

Link



on this


Link


Quoting weatherlover94:


this could be the big one some people have been waiting for this year not me i hope it goes away and doesnt develop

We sure don't want or need it here!!!
Quoting stormpetrol:

We sure don't want or need it here!!!
Amen.
Paula is born. Richard and Shary are not far behind. I favor the UKMET solution, because I MET my wife in the UK. Additionally, there are still gaps in the NOGAPS, which by definition, should not have gaps.

Cayman reports the rain has changed to Lidocaine (which is a topical anesthetic), making Paula a Topical Storm.



612. JLPR2
Quoting Tazmanian:



where you see no upgrade from it had 65mph winds


You're right about Matthew, it never had 60mph in the official advisories but Hermine...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
HurricaneOtto
09Oct 12amGMT - - 27.2n61.7w - - 75knots - - 972mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 03amGMT - - 27.8n60.8w - - 85mph - . - 972mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
09Oct 06amGMT - - 28.5n59.7w - - 75knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 09amGMT - - 29.2n58.5w - - 85mph - . - 977mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
09Oct 12pmGMT - - 30.1n57.1w - - 65knots - - 984mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 03pmGMT - - 30.7n55.7w - - 75mph - . - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#14
09Oct 06pmGMT - - 31.7n54.0w - - 65knots - - 984mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 09pmGMT - - 32.4n52.6w - - 75mph - . - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#15
TropicalStormOtto
10Oct 12amGMT - - 33.1n50.4w - - 60knots - - 988mb -- NHC-ATCF
60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h
65knots=~74.8mph=~120.4km/h __ 75mph =~120.7k/h __ 70knots=~80.6mph=~129.6km/h
80mph=~128.7km/h __ 75knots=~86.3mph=138.9km/h __ 85mph=136.8km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 27.2n61.7w, 27.8n60.8w, 28.5n59.7w, 29.2n58.5w, 30.1n57.1w-30.7n55.7w, 30.7n55.7w-31.7n54.0w, 31.7n54.0w-32.4n52.6w, 32.4n52.6w-33.1n50.4w, bda, hor into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Paula is born. Richard and Shary are not far behind. I favor the UKMET solution, because I MET my wife in the UK. Additionally, there are still gaps in the NOGAPS, which by definition, should not have gaps.

Cayman reports the rain has changed to Lidocaine (which is a topical anesthetic), making Paula a Topical Storm.






jeez it is coming down so hard that it is stinging skin? i wouldn't doubt it.
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Paula is born. Richard and Shary are not far behind. I favor the UKMET solution, because I MET my wife in the UK. Additionally, there are still gaps in the NOGAPS, which by definition, should not have gaps.

Cayman reports the rain has changed to Lidocaine (which is a topical anesthetic), making Paula a Topical Storm.



Your stuff is stronger than mine....
Quoting JLPR2:


You're right about Matthew, it never had 60mph in the official advisories but Hermine...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES




ok
Really wrapping around the center. Wish there was more buoy data in the area.

Quoting weatherlover94:


this could be the big one some people have been waiting for this year not me i hope it goes away and doesnt develop
What ?...You do not want to see someone get flailed by a monster cane ? ..neither do I.:)
Quoting Orcasystems:
Complete Update



AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI




straight into the western hebert
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Paula is born. Richard and Shary are not far behind. I favor the UKMET solution, because I MET my wife in the UK. Additionally, there are still gaps in the NOGAPS, which by definition, should not have gaps.

Cayman reports the rain has changed to Lidocaine (which is a topical anesthetic), making Paula a Topical Storm.




I will never forget what my brother -in law said to me the evening he rescued us during Ivan 04, I said, Have you ever seen anything like this, he said yes Hurricane Donna, he lived in Florida keys, Marathon if i remember correctly at that time!
Quoting Tazmanian:




nop they had upgrade it too 65 mph winds

if you guys are looking at this then for get it you will olny see the upgrades

Link



on this


Link



ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...HERMINE STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES
Quoting Grothar:
Really wrapping around the center. Wish there was more buoy data in the area.

That is a fricken huge thunderstorm south of Jamaica...
Quoting Ameister12:

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
700 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010

...HERMINE STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 97.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES



yup they may even upgrade it even more at post season
Quoting stormpetrol:

I will never forget what my brother -in law said to me the evening he rescued us during Ivan 04, I said, Have you ever seen anything like this, he said yes Hurricane Donna, he lived in Florida keys, Marathon if i remember correctly at that time!
Gusts were 180 to 200 mph on Marathon during Donna..
Quoting Tazmanian:



yup they may even upgrade it even more at post season

I'm thinking 70mph.
folks 98 could be a west coast of FL event
Quoting Tazmanian:




do you have any thing better to do?
Taz, be nice.
Quoting Ameister12:

I'm thinking 70mph.



am thinking more like 75mph
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Taz, be nice.



ok
Quoting hydrus:
That is a fricken huge thunderstorm south of Jamaica...
It is raining very hard and non-stop in most parishes over there all day into tonight.
Quoting RufusBaker:
folks 98 could be a west coast of FL event


Models don't have a handle on this system yet though.
Quoting RufusBaker:
folks 98 could be a west coast of FL event

nope
I really think Igor should be upgraded to a category 5 at the post season.
Quoting 954FtLCane:

So Groth you're telling me a trough made it 50 degrees here (Fort Lauderdale) the morning after Wilma was gone? or was it a front?


No, I don't remember mentioning anything about the temperature dropping after Wilma, which it did. The question was what turned Wilma to the NE. It was a trough, not a front.

From Wiki:
Wilma continued to slowly drift towards the north over the Yucatán peninsula, although it weakened to a moderate hurricane while over land, it reemerged over the southern Gulf of Mexico on October 23 around 0000 UTC. Despite Wilma spending 24 hours over land it reemerged completely intact and began to re-intensify shortly after. This was perhaps due to its large size and because the majority of its circulation remained over the warm waters of the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. A powerful trough turned the hurricane to the northeast and accelerated its forward motion. Its large eye remained well-organized, and Wilma intensified despite increasing amounts of wind shear, briefly producing winds of 125 mph (200 km/h) before hitting Cape Romano, Florida as a 120 mph (195 km/h) major hurricane (although maximum sustained winds at the Florida landfall, according to some sources, might have been stronger)[3]
Quoting stormpetrol:

I will never forget what my brother -in law said to me the evening he rescued us during Ivan 04, I said, Have you ever seen anything like this, he said yes Hurricane Donna, he lived in Florida keys, Marathon if i remember correctly at that time!
This is damage from Donna..Note the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane Monument in the background.
Quoting RufusBaker:
folks 98 could be a west coast of FL event
noooo
i told ya last night stationary then lift n and slighly w of north till west cuba isle of youth then nne ene after that across cuba off se fla over bahamas it goes
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It is raining very hard and non-stop in most parishes over there all day into tonight.
I will say prayers for Jamaica tonight...
641. JLPR2
Quoting Ameister12:

I'm thinking 70mph.
Quoting Ameister12:
I really think Igor should be upgraded to a category 5 at the post season.


Agreed and agreed. :]
Quoting stormpetrol:

I will never forget what my brother -in law said to me the evening he rescued us during Ivan 04, I said, Have you ever seen anything like this, he said yes Hurricane Donna, he lived in Florida keys, Marathon if i remember correctly at that time!
I knew a storm
Donna was her name
She hit Fl. and LI
But never hit Spain
And I loved that storm
Donna where can you be?
Where can you be
Oh Donna Oh Donna
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
noooo
i told ya last night stationary then lift n and slighly w of north till west cuba isle of youth then nne ene after that across cuba off se fla over bahamas it goes


That sounds correct.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
noooo
i told ya last night stationary then lift n and slighly w of north till west cuba isle of youth then nne ene after that across cuba off se fla over bahamas it goes
You seem so sure...:)
Quoting hydrus:
I will say prayers for Jamaica tonight...
Me too. Two of my grandchildren are over there now visiting family.
Good Evening!


98L looking very interesting this evening. The only problem that will limit 98L strengthening will be the very stable air over the GOM and NW Caribbean.
phish is live tonight on iclips
648. JLPR2
Very dry Atlantic.
Yes, we've been as BT comes in, we've been upgrading storms. Here are the ones that have been upgraded.

Alex - 105 mph to 110 mph

Julia - 135 mph to 140 mph

Matthew - 50 mph to 60 mph

Thats all we've updated as of now. However, we're pretty sure we'll have a lot others to update come December when all the TCR's SHOULD be out.
It was a dark and stormy night.....

Could 98L skips td and turns into ts (or goes td and develops to ts), will get the name "Paula"
If you dont know why the users here already know the prepared names, Wiki up "2010 atlantic hurricane season"
and you'll find a list of names there
Quoting hydrus:
You seem so sure...:)
it may be nothng at all never sure of anything things change in but a blink of an eye
655. beell
Quoting NRAamy:
It was a dark and stormy night.....



The bone-chilling scream split the warm autumn night in two, the first half being before the scream when it was fairly balmy and calm and pleasant for those who hadn't heard the scream at all, but not calm or balmy or even very nice for those who did hear the scream, discounting the little period of time during the actual scream itself when your ears might have been hearing it but your brain wasn't reacting yet to let you know.
Went for a trip to the east coast, 98L was 20%.. come back to 60%. Nearing TD status.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Went for a trip to the east coast, 98L was 20%.. come back to 60%. Nearing TD status.




in that latest shot it looks like the deep convection to the northeast of 98L has began to pull south. If that trend continues it could help 98L to form as she pulls it in and spins it back around to the northwest quad.
Quoting hydrus:
It was a trough that shifted Charley,s path also...
I thought they were basically the same thing except with a front there are temperature differences where in the trough there are not. Right?
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it may be nothng at all never sure of anything things change in but a blink of an eye
I blinked. 98 is going to Tangiers...;0
in the last 2 frames of this floater loop it certainly looks like she is gaining moisture both in her southeast quad from convection moving westbound and the deep convection to the northeast appears to be getting sucked into the circulation which in turn is causing deep convection flare up near the northwest quad, right where she needs it to fight off the dry air.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
I thought they were basically the same thing except with a front there are temperature differences where in the trough there are not. Right?
Spot on...A trough can also be an area of lower pressure between two highs.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:

in the last 2 frames of this floater loop it certainly looks like she is gaining moisture both in her southeast quad from convection moving westbound and the deep convection to the northeast appears to be getting sucked into the circulation which in turn is causing deep convection flare up near the northwest quad, right where she needs it to fight off the dry air.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html





also notice the dry air being cut into in the very northwest corner of the floater image. outflow looks like it is beginning to moisten the air in front of her to the northwest.
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:
in the last 2 frames of this floater loop it certainly looks like she is gaining moisture both in her southeast quad from convection moving westbound and the deep convection to the northeast appears to be getting sucked into the circulation which in turn is causing deep convection flare up near the northwest quad, right where she needs it to fight off the dry air.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
Ya know, that puppy does look to be moving to the W-NW. But sometimes those loops play tricks on eyes..
has anyone looked at the new model runs? the GFDL is the only one making any since the rest are taking it north then south again, due west due south,due east etc
667. 7544
hmm pre 99l south of jamacia will these two battle it out ?
Quoting hydrus:
Spot on...A trough can also be an area of lower pressure between two highs.


I read that wrong the first time.
:)
Glad I went back to reread.
the LBR model i think its called is now showing a us landfall but also a good deal of the models are now showing a Mexico landfall
Quoting hydrus:
Ya know, that puppy does look to be moving to the W-NW. But sometimes those loops play tricks on eyes..



Yep your right. Here is another link it appears moisture is indeed starting to feed northbound into the dry air pocket and the moisture feeding in from Mexico is also continuing to flow into the central GOM.


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html
Quoting weatherlover94:
has anyone looked at the new model runs? the GFDL is the only one making any since the rest are taking it north then south again, due west due south,due east etc
Usually that is an indication that the system might stall out..We will just have to wait and see.
672. beell
Stylized version of a trough and associated surface features


Link
Quoting hydrus:
Spot on...A trough can also be an area of lower pressure between two highs.
Isn't there always high pressure on both sides of a trough? Otherwise it wouldn't be a trough. Are you talking about shortwave troughs?
Quoting hydrus:
Usually that is an indication that the system might stall out..We will just have to wait and see.


are you saying its going to stall and hit mexico or stall and hit cuba,florida?
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



Yep your right. Here is another link it appears moisture is indeed starting to feed northbound into the dry air pocket and the moisture feeding in from Mexico is also continuing to flow into the central GOM.


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html
This is interesting, notice the weird change in direction...Link
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:



Yep your right. Here is another link it appears moisture is indeed starting to feed northbound into the dry air pocket and the moisture feeding in from Mexico is also continuing to flow into the central GOM.


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/gulfwv.html



it's also real humid outside now here in mobile. not august humid but very warm and more like early to mid sept.. some of this moisture may move south out of here into the GOM as well, and I think the loop shows that progression as well.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


I read that wrong the first time.
:)
Glad I went back to reread.
lol
Quoting hydrus:
This is interesting, notice the weird change in direction...Link



i think the focus point of that camera was sliding around so it suggests an exaggerated western movement by misdirection of the eye (the human eye, not the storm's eye..,.lol). but yeah look at that last frame of that. it looks very stacked in its core.

it also looks like the loop suggests consolidation of storms into the center. it definitely appears to have the vacuum hose on in the middle as it all is pulling together and stacking up.
i think 98L will become paula and if paula gets strong quick them it will likely absorb that area near Jamaica
Quoting weatherlover94:


are you saying its going to stall and hit mexico or stall and hit cuba,florida?
I cant say where it will stall. Stall means stationary, and if it does so over water it will strengthen, if it does it over any of those areas you mentioned, it will probably fizzle out. When the models go all over it can mean a meandering or quasi-stationary system..Sometimes not.. Still has a lil green..
Quoting hydrus:
Spot on...A trough can also be an area of lower pressure between two highs.
I've been quiet all day but this is just............oh, nevermind.
Was reading one of my favorite online comics (XKCD), and noticed that the blog was mentioned!

Look in the Zoom in inset of the blogosphere in the NE corner (scroll straight down)



683. beell
geez, i missed that one, bf!
Must need a break!
684. afj3
Hey everyone! Had to give up my Canes ticket tonight to work (Good thing, too, seeing how we are getting killed). Half time about up...anyone have a good opinion on 98L?
I just saw a gator outside.....watching a cloud.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I just saw a gator outside.....watching a cloud.



i just saw a gator run back a kick for a touchdown to pull within a touchdown of the bayou bengals. lol

687. beell
i just shot an elephant in my pajamas...
690. beell
Back to the game.
See ya, tk/bf.
)

There ya go, bflol.
Later.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I've been quiet all day but this is just............oh, nevermind.
lol. I guess what I was trying to explain is not all troughs have temperature changes associated with them. Cold air is denser than warm air, this instance is more frontal-genesis like than a trough that is formed from a high pressure area that may have split or weakened due to other environmental forces.
Interesting story in Yahoo.... Father and son film outer space, do-it-yourself style

Link

To see the homemade Video from a camera attached to a weather balloon that rose into the
upper stratosphere and recorded the blackness of space.

Link



Dry air looks to be slowly on the way out.
Quoting beell:
i just shot an elephant in my pajamas...
cruelty to animals is a punishable offense Beell..lol
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172010
1100 PM AST SAT OCT 09 2010

...OTTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 48.7W
ABOUT 935 MI...1510 KM E OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES
Quoting RufusBaker:
folks 98 could be a west coast of FL event


And cows could jump over the moon.
Quoting CosmicEvents:
And gators can score touchdowns!


More likely.
NHC says 98L now has a 60% chance of development. Interesting.
Quoting Felix2007:
NHC says 98L now has a 60% chance of development. Interesting.
This looks rather interesting. .. Right at the end there is a lot of deep red, a sign of increased moisture.Link
No depression at 11, unless they updated Otto and not 98L, I think tomorrow we will definitely have a depression
1130 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2010

.SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13.5N81W WILL MOVE TO NEAR
14N83W SUN NIGHT...NEAR 15N86W MON NIGHT...AND NEAR 16N88W TUE
NIGHT. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA TO THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE IN TANDEM
Link

WITH THE LOW PRES.

$$
Quoting all4hurricanes:
No depression at 11, unless they updated Otto and not 98L, I think tomorrow we will definitely have a depression
If it does not interact with land..
Quoting sunlinepr:
Interesting story in Yahoo.... Father and son film outer space, do-it-yourself style

Link

To see the homemade Video from a camera attached to a weather balloon that rose into the
upper stratosphere and recorded the blackness of space.

Link


AMAAAZING!
Specially when the weather ballon breaks apart.... at 100,000 ft.....
Quoting jonelu:


AMAAAZING!
I say 98l's COC is located at 13.8N 80.2W moving north or NNW
Geaux Gators.
HurricaneOtto
09Oct 03amGMT - - 27.8n60.8w - - 85mph - . - 972mb -- NHC.Adv.#12
09Oct 06amGMT - - 28.5n59.7w - - 75knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 09amGMT - - 29.2n58.5w - - 85mph - . - 977mb -- NHC.Adv.#13
09Oct 12pmGMT - - 30.1n57.1w - - 65knots - - 984mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 03pmGMT - - 30.7n55.7w - - 75mph - . - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#14
09Oct 06pmGMT - - 31.7n54.0w - - 65knots - - 984mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 09pmGMT - - 32.4n52.6w - - 75mph - . - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#15
TropicalStormOtto
10Oct 12amGMT - - 33.1n50.4w - - 60knots - - 988mb -- NHC-ATCF
10Oct 03amGMT - - 33.9n48.7w - - 70mph - . - 988mb -- NHC.Adv.#16

60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h __ 70mph=~112.7km/h __ 65knots=~74.8mph=~120.4km/h
75mph =~120.7k/h __ 70knots=~80.6mph=~129.6km/h __ 80mph=~128.7km/h
75knots=~86.3mph=138.9km/h __ 85mph=136.8km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 27.8n60.8w, 28.5n59.7w, 29.2n58.5w, 30.1n57.1w, 30.7n55.7w-31.7n54.0w, 31.7n54.0w-32.4n52.6w, 32.4n52.6w-33.1n50.4w, 33.1n50.4w-33.9n48.7w, bda, hor into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours
Models keep shifting.

I think we need some patience to see how the models work out.
Quoting sunlinepr:


I rest my case. Wow is this confused.
Quoting sunlinepr:



compared to 12 hours ago this storm has progressed quite a bit. didn't the models yesterday hold off rapid development of this until it reached cuba?

and i agree with all of the previous comments regarding the spaghetti heading in every direction....suggests a stalling cycle to me, which may buy the storm time to develop, chew into the dry air to the north, and allow enough time for the moisture to train out of the pacific and into the central GOM through central Mexico.
Its moistening up here in the gulf region. Pensacola on the panhandle and there is condensation on surfaces.
Quoting nwFLstormstalker:
Its moistening up here in the gulf region. Pensacola on the panhandle and there is condensation on surfaces.


LOL, if you wanna call that moisture, go check the PW soundings, they are still astoundingly low.
I wanna jump in on two topics and try not to get in trouble for being off topic so I will start with 98L, which if this years wacky precedents hold true, I think will go into Central America (again..sorta feels like groundhog day down there and the remnants will hang just south of Jamaica, cause even more horrible flooding (seriously, what is up with this stalled mess in the Caribbean anyways?)Maybe some day soon this mess will dissipate. Or maybe will spawn another two or three storm type blobs that don't become serious tropical storms but cause major damage nontheless and that really bites.
On another note: Yes, the Gators can score touchdowns but not enough of them! My Gators are horrible this year! Ughhhhhhh! That game was flippin painful to watch and I swear that was an incomplete forward pass at the end, I swear it!
The Hurricanes have been a joke for years and will continue to be a joke, for years.
I grew up in Miami and spent 12 years at the University of Florida.
Oh, one last thing. Don't waste your time with last night's Phish show on Iclips. PHISH is not even 1/2 of 1/4 of the band they used to be. I have seen over 150 shows, including most of the shows from last year and four this year before I just gave up. Most of my phriends that have seen even more shows than I, have given up as well. Go listen to some shows from the mid 90's or better yet listen to some good ole Jerry and the Dead from the 80's, or John Lennon or... Seriously, folks phresh phish is not the best phish!
Quoting nwFLstormstalker:
Its moistening up here in the gulf region. Pensacola on the panhandle and there is condensation on surfaces.


agreed im next door in mobile and today was considerably warmer and more humid than yesterday, and in turn yesterday was way warmer than 2 days ago. The moisture training from 120w/10-20n is showing an ever-increasing dampening of the central gulf. I don't see anything that will stop this trend anytime soon.

the disorganized system at 120-150w/10-20n shows little sign of forward movement. It looks like convection is remaining constant in the line of disorganized storms even though it is gradually feeding more and more moisture across Cent. Mexico and into Central GOM.
Quoting nwFLstormstalker:
Its moistening up here in the gulf region. Pensacola on the panhandle and there is condensation on surfaces.
....upper levels still dominated by ridging...
Wow, the models are all over the place with 98L.
Quoting Jedkins01:


LOL, if you wanna call that moisture, go check the PW soundings, they are still astoundingly low.
I Do wanna callit moisture its in the mid to upper 60s and dew point has gotta be at least 55
Quoting SweetHomeBamaGOM:


agreed im next door in mobile and today was considerably warmer and more humid than yesterday, and in turn yesterday was way warmer than 2 days ago. The moisture training from 120w/10-20n is showing an ever-increasing dampening of the central gulf. I don't see anything that will stop this trend anytime soon.

the disorganized system at 120-150w/10-20n shows little sign of forward movement. It looks like convection is remaining constant in the line of disorganized storms even though it is gradually feeding more and more moisture across Cent. Mexico and into Central GOM.



Nope, its not that simple, with deep layer high pressure holding strong, moisture will be extremely limited. Just because there is moisture beading up on thing in the AM means absolutely nothing. Even in the driest places in the world you can get fog or dew. Even in the driest air masses some moisture exists.


But examine the total atmospheric moisture content(known as precipitable water) and you will find it is extremely low. Don't be fooled! The air mass is extremely dry, and although moisture will increase slight in the low levels through the period, overall moisture will remain very, very low.
Its 65 with a dewpoint of 62 . 91 percent humidity
Quoting nwFLstormstalker:
I Do wanna callit moisture its in the mid to upper 60s and dew point has gotta be at least 55



Nope, the precipitable water values are very low. The air mass is very dry, and there is strong subsidence in place. The atmosphere is very unfavorable for convection.

Go ask a certified meteorologist, I guarantee you he/she would be in 100% agreement with me!
Quoting Jedkins01:



Nope, the precipitable water values are very low. The air mass is very dry, and there is strong subsidence in place. The atmosphere is very unfavorable for convection.

Go ask a certified meteorologist, I guarantee you he/she would be in 100% agreement with me!
....they dont get it,your wasting your time jed....
tropical storm otto will be a extratropical storm by 5am on sunday morning..this storm look like a extratropical storm right now.
Quoting stillwaiting:
....they dont get it,your wasting your time jed....


you're right, I would just hope people who don't understand something would be willing to learn. At least that's how I was raised...
Oh I agree the precip values are still low. I didn't say anything about the upper level of the atmosphere. At the surface is all I was stating
745. JLPR2
Quoting Jedkins01:



Nope, the precipitable water values are very low. The air mass is very dry, and there is strong subsidence in place. The atmosphere is very unfavorable for convection.

Go ask a certified meteorologist, I guarantee you he/she would be in 100% agreement with me!


Agreed, there is a dessert in the air. XD
The only areas with some decent moisture are the Caribbean including only the eastern half of Cuba, north of 40N and some limited parts of the CATL.
Any storm out there would need to create its own moist environment to survive.
747. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:



Nope, its not that simple, with deep layer high pressure holding strong, moisture will be extremely limited. Just because there is moisture beading up on thing in the AM means absolutely nothing. Even in the driest places in the world you can get fog or dew. Even in the driest air masses some moisture exists.


But examine the total atmospheric moisture content(known as precipitable water) and you will find it is extremely low. Don't be fooled! The air mass is extremely dry, and although moisture will increase slight in the low levels through the period, overall moisture will remain very, very low.


Hard to sustain deep convection with shallow moisture! An uptick on Wednesday then back to dry for S FL.
Quoting JLPR2:


Agreed, there is a dessert in the air. XD
The only areas with some decent moisture are the Caribbean including only the eastern half of Cuba, north of 40N and some limited parts of the CATL.
Any storm out there would need to create its own moist environment to survive.



You are exactly correct!
Quoting fatlady99:

If an elephant was wearing my jammies, I'd shoot him too.


There's a much easier way to avoid the problem. I'll let you figure out what it is.



All you tropics watchers,
I have not looked at the model synoptics... too much of a chore lol... but there is a change going on in the middle, cut-off low and shortwave and enuf gulf moisture advecting NWard to cause slight severe chances over the Southern Plains tomorrow and Monday - for the first time in weeks. If 98L strengthens, maybe it will be drawn northward. How far and for how long remains to be seen. Goodnight and happy weather watching!
751. JRRP
how about 98L RIP
Quoting beell:


Hard to sustain deep convection with shallow moisture!


Exactly, sometimes if surface moisture is deep enough, you can sustain deep convection as long as convergence and thermodynamic profiles are favorable. But you still have to measure the actual available moisture to have any meteorological credibility. For example, if an air mass has dry in upper levels, but there is sufficient convergence and the right thermodynamics in place, combined with high enough PW's, you get convection.

This happens in Florida a lot during the summer months, as well as much of the tropics. However, you still have to measure the PW or overall moisture content. Lets say you have a temp at 90 degrees, with a dew point of 74. Yes it feels very humid, but if the PW is 1.30 inches, most of that moisture is ground level. Indicating an overall way too dry air mass for deep convection, also this usually indicates a subsidence inversion with even less likely chances for convection.

However, lets say you have a different air mass with a temperature at 90 once again, and a dew point of 74 feeling just as humid, accept this time the PW is 2.10 inches. Even though the air aloft is dry, such a high PW is easily enough for deep convection and torrential rain, as long as lapse rates are steep enough and convergence is decent.

754. beell
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


There's a much easier way to avoid the problem. I'll let you figure out what it is.



All you tropics watchers,
I have not looked at the model synoptics... too much of a chore lol... but there is a change going on in the middle, cut-off low and shortwave and enuf gulf moisture advecting NWard to cause slight severe chances over the Southern Plains tomorrow and Monday - for the first time in weeks. If 98L strengthens, maybe it will be drawn northward. How far and for how long remains to be seen. Goodnight and happy weather watching!



We'll see, bf. Fair lapse rates will make the most of the meager moisture-but still a tough job, imo. The cut-off low may be a little too far to the north to affect 98l-but it should pull a narrow plume of moisture over OK.
755. beell
Thanks for that, jed.

Ok, I am now off to shoot something uh, wearing my pajamas...

Night, all.

Quoting beell:



We'll see, bf. Fair lapse rates will make the most of the meager moisture-but still a tough job, imo. The cut-off low may be a little too far to the north to affect 98l-but it should pull a narrow plume of moisture over OK.


Thanks for your thoughts, bl.
Any convection, deep or shallow, even with limited moisture, will be welcome here. I'm having trouble delineating Pacific trough from the cut-off low.

I do hope OK gets some much-needed rain.
(graphic added)


'Nite again.

Ps. Great finish for LSU!
pacific line of disturbance is finally starting to move past 120w at 5-10n. also notice that the influx of moisture is increasing across Central Mexico into the GOM.
it looks like 98L is sending moisture westbound and that is what is running into the system from 120w to 150w. so in a way she is venting moisture way out in the pacific only to have it sent right back into the northern GOM..,...so, in a way, isn't 98L already in the GOM? lol



http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/hpwv.html


98L looks like it is starting to create a more conductive environment above the northwest quad. if shear decreases to the north and 98L can spend enough time south to allow venting of moisture to her northwest she could build a nice path to follow north. That could help her intensify significantly once she does make her move northbound from her present stationary position.

Temperatures are quite a bit warmer here along the Northern GOM tonight as compared to last night. Now approaching 48 hours since the trough began to give way and things have changed dramatically. 2 nights ago I got so cold I had to wear a flannel, and I am originally from Colorado....lol....Now it is 12:30 and I have the backdoor open just to cool the house down from late afternoon. It's not blazing hot here (i haven't run the a/c) but still a big change from just 2 nights ago.

Lower level steering winds (700-850) show the weak high pressure over the gulf. I think this may be part of what is keeping 98L where she is....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html

however, if she starts to gain strength and the millibars drop watch what happens in the mid levels

(500-850)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html


(400-850)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/

(300-850)
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm4.html

the trend with the high pressure to the west over mexico continues at 250-850.


it would seem as if the likelihood of 98L heading directly north once she gains ts strength is high. the high pressure to the east is gonna direct her north and the high to the west over mexico is going to deflect her away from a mexican GOM landfall. At higher levels it even appears that she has a very narrow alleyway between the 2 high pressures heading directly north into western cuba.


once she gains strong ts strength she will probably begin her move north. if and when that happens is uncertain, but the current steering winds certainly suggest it.


dry air at night equals massive cooling of the gulf
Quoting Jedkins01:



Nope, its not that simple, with deep layer high pressure holding strong, moisture will be extremely limited. Just because there is moisture beading up on thing in the AM means absolutely nothing. Even in the driest places in the world you can get fog or dew. Even in the driest air masses some moisture exists.


But examine the total atmospheric moisture content(known as precipitable water) and you will find it is extremely low. Don't be fooled! The air mass is extremely dry, and although moisture will increase slight in the low levels through the period, overall moisture will remain very, very low.



oh sorry didnt mean to insinuate something wrong. i was just responding to the guy that said it is getting more muggy here along the northern GOM. that really had nothing to do with 98L. sorry about the confusion
Quoting Legion:



lmao...been awhile since i have heard some good jello, klaus, and east bay ray lmao
Where is the southern jet? There has been no moisture to speak of from the west. Very La Ninaish.
98L seems to really be struggling in the northwest quadrant but it is sending plumes of moisture way northwest as she encounters that dry air.
768. IKE
HurricaneOtto
09Oct 06amGMT - - 28.5n59.7w - - 75knots - - 977mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 09amGMT - - 29.2n58.5w - - 85mph - . - 977mb -- NHC.Adv. #13
09Oct 12pmGMT - - 30.1n57.1w - - 65knots - - 984mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 03pmGMT - - 30.7n55.7w - - 75mph - . - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#14
09Oct 06pmGMT - - 31.7n54.0w - - 65knots - - 984mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 09pmGMT - - 32.4n52.6w - - 75mph - . - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#15
TropicalStormOtto
10Oct 12amGMT - - 33.1n50.4w - - 60knots - - 988mb -- NHC-ATCF
10Oct 03amGMT - - 33.9n48.7w - - 70mph - . - 988mb -- NHC.Adv.#16
10Oct 06amGMT - - 34.3n46.8w - - 55knots - - 987mb -- NHC-ATCF
55knots=~63.3mph=~101.9km/h __ 65mph=~104.6km/h __ 60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h
70mph=~112.7km/h __ 65knots=~74.8mph=~120.4km/h __ 75mph=~120.7k/h
70knots=~80.6mph=~129.6km/h __ 80mph=~128.7km/h __ 75knots=~86.3mph=138.9km/h
85mph=136.8km/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 28.5n59.7w, 29.2n58.5w, 30.1n57.1w, 30.7n55.7w, 31.7n54.0w-32.4n52.6w, 32.4n52.6w-33.1n50.4w, 33.1n50.4w-33.9n48.7w, 33.9n48.7w-34.3n46.8w, 34.3n46.8w-bda, 34.3n46.8w-hor, flw into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours

TS.Otto is now closer to westernmost Azores (FLW) than to Bermuda (BDA)
772. IKE
773. IKE
144 hr. GFS....




144 hr. ECMWF....

---
775. IKE
Look at the SAL in the Pacific and the GOM....

Morning. Scanning to see what is on the weather platter this fine morning
Quoting Orcasystems:
I have no idea why you guys are babbling about football and baseball ... its HOCKEY Season :)


I saw the panther's play and a hockey game almost broke out... But then it went back to the Saturday night fights...
Good morning surfmom - not much from yesterday. Still watching and waiting.

How are the surfing conditions by you today? I noticed on Friday a lot of surfboards on top of cars going to the beach.
779. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 10 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM OTTO...LOCATED ABOUT 1015 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA. CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO
FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Dakster - We're flat now, but last week scored some nice North Windswell here in SWFL..... actually got a couple of days - had some beautiful leftovers Thursday evening....present conditions:

photo: gulfster

this made me groan..... haven't seen waves like this on the Gomex since Dolly - what a drought here for surfers....

photo: Aurasurf
Good Morning...
I am on the East Coast (actually in the Cocoa area at the moment visiting).

We don't get much in South Florida, so everyone I know that surfs goes to Central Florida on the east coast to surf.

Nice Photos. Thanks for sharing.
No Rain in Kingston Jamaica this morning. However the 5:45 a.m. EST radar imagery shows that the western side of the Island is possibly having some showers.

Areas in the parish of Westmoreland, like Negril, Savanalamar, and the parish St. Elizebeth appear to be getting light to moderate rainfall.

Met Service in Jamaica Radar
Is it fair to say the models hae NFI where 98 might go?
hey guys I think that 98L relocated it self to either at 14.0N 80.5W or at 13.9N 81.2W both areas moving N-NNW
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I think that 98L relocated it self to either at 14.0N 80.5W or at 13.9N 81.2W both areas moving N-NNW
I think you are right..I see a little banding in there too..
Is it reasonable that whatever 98 turns into it could find its way to cent. south west coast of Fl?
Quoting Dakster:
I am on the East Coast (actually in the Cocoa area at the moment visiting).

We don't get much in South Florida, so everyone I know that surfs goes to Central Florida on the east coast to surf.

Nice Photos. Thanks for sharing.


It's been a terrible surf season on the Gulf Coast of Florida. Usually we get a tropical storm or two to bring us some waves. This year nothing.
I usually drive to the Cocoa area to do most of my surfing. We usually rent a place for at least a week during the summer to get some waves. We just watch the surf report and when we see a good surf window (several days of good surf) we rent a place on or near the beach.
Good morning. Quiet in here I take it.
Literally the driest air in the CONUS this morning is once again in and around South Florida...but the GOM is very thankfully moistening up a bit, and The Great Gulf October Mini-Drought Of 2010 looks to soon be a thing of the past. The WV image below shows darker--that is, wetter--air pushing in from both the west, the north, and the Caribbean, putting the squeeze play on the aerial Sahara, helping to finally exorcise it from the region. It's still dry, but it's not as dry as it was, and it's forecast to get progressively wetter for at least the next several days.

That's cause for celebration, I think. :-)

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image
Quoting Neapolitan:
Literally the driest air in the CONUS this morning is once again in and around South Florida...but the GOM is very thankfully moistening up a bit, and The Great Gulf October Mini-Drought Of 2010 looks to soon be a thing of the past. The WV image below shows darker--that is, wetter--air pushing in from both the west, the north, and the Caribbean, putting the squeeze play on the aerial Sahara, helping to finally exorcise it from the region. It's still dry, but it's not as dry as it was, and it's forecast to get progressively wetter for at least the next several days.

That's cause for celebration, I think. :-)

Click for larger image:

Appropriate tropical weather-related image


If that means rain for Louisiana, I'll be jumping for joy. Put the dog out last night and my eyes stung from smoke. No idea where it was coming from, but with the statewide burn ban, it made me very nervous.
ATCF says 98L (pre-Paula?) is still at 25 knots and 1007mb. It's almost stationary, with the the center at 13.0N / 81.2W.

AL, 98, 2010101012, , BEST, 0, 130N, 812W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Interesting...
Quoting Neapolitan:
ATCF says 98L (pre-Paula?) is still at 25 knots and 1007mb. It's almost stationary, with the the center at 13.0N / 81.2W.

AL, 98, 2010101012, , BEST, 0, 130N, 812W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 35, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
The models were all over the place yesterday. When that happens the system usually stalls or becomes quasi-stationary..Hooray for the models..There is even more energy on the way to merge with 98L in the Eastern Caribbean moving west.You can see it on post# 794.That should be interesting to watch...
to which one hydrus the first or to second lat&long

do you what to know why Neapolitan because the ATCF has NFI
Quoting Autistic2:
Is it reasonable that whatever 98 turns into it could find its way to cent. south west coast of Fl?


yes very reasonable but its looking like its going to stay so close to land all its life it wont be much more than a ts
798. IKE
Listening to weatherguy03's outlook posted 2 days ago, he thinks the tropical season is about over for the lower 48 in 2010...Link

Models for 98L...

799. IKE
Latest GFDL on 98L...Link

Latest HWRF on 98L...Link
Quoting IKE:
Listening to weatherguy03's outlook posted 2 days ago, he thinks the tropical season is about over for the lower 48 in 2010...Link

Models for 98L...



And he has been correct all season.
You could actually hear a pin drop...

The GEM model shows South Florida being a possible target..Link
803. IKE
Quoting Eugeniopr:


And he has been correct all season.


I agree with him, for the northern GOM. 99% chance it's finished.
Quoting hydrus:
The GEM model shows South Florida being a possible target..Link


But no one of the reliable models agree.
Quoting Eugeniopr:


But no one of the reliable models agree.
This is weird..NOGAPS...Link
Quoting hydrus:
This is weird..NOGAPS...Link


Men, you forgot the word "very" before weird
Quoting Eugeniopr:


Men, you forgot the word "very" before weird
I cannot find the vorticity map I want, but there appears to be a spin off of Jamaica also...
Quoting hydrus:
The GEM model shows South Florida being a possible target..Link
...looks like sfl gets some moisture,but no organized tropical system,notice the baro-low near the panhandle end of the run,lloks like it kills it over yucatan and moisture surges ne imo
Good Morning.

More rain... please send some sunshine.

October 10, 2010 at 5:00 a.m.
Met Service of Jamaica
LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST

SIGNIFICANT FEATURE… Broad Trough across Jamaica. Additionally, there is an Area of Low Pressure over the southwestern Caribbean.

Comment
The Area of Low Pressure over the southwestern Caribbean has a 60% chance of becoming a Tropical Depression or Cyclone during the next day or two, and should remain over the western Caribbean today and Monday, drifting northwestward tonight.

24-HOURS FORECAST
This Morning… Cloudy with periods showers and thunderstorms across sections of most parishes.

This Afternoon… Outbreaks of showers and thunderstorms across most parishes, lingering into the evening.

Tonight… Showers and isolated thunderstorms persist, especially over central western parishes.


Maximum temperatures expected today:
Kingston… 31 degrees Celsius.
Montego Bay… 30 degrees Celsius.

3-DAYS FORECAST (starting tomorrow)
Mon- Tue … Partly cloudy mornings. Scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly across central and western parishes.

Wed … Partly cloudy morning. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Regionally… Hurricane Otto is still north of the Caribbean and moving toward the east northeast. A Tropical Wave is east of the Lesser Antilles moving toward the west.

rlb
Quoting Grothar:


Bet you could hear this one.


LOL... would that make this season a gutter ball?
POST791 - Bring on the MOISTURE -- my skin is NOT fond of this dry air & at my age I want all the moisture I can get....
Good thing I mulch hay over my soil in the veggie garden -- been a great help keeping the soil moist while my veggie seedlings start popping up.

I like an appropriate amount of rain w/ a dash of waves......just in case MaNature is taking orders

Yes, Aislinn - Peace is Prevailing this Morning - howz that pup????
Quoting Eugeniopr (#800):


And he has been correct all season.


The only people who have been correct all season are those who never made a forecast. Anyone and everyone who has made a prediction of any kind has been proven wrong at least once--and usually far more than that.

And, yes, I am inlcuding myself in that group. :-)
Quoting hydrus:
The models were all over the place yesterday. When that happens the system usually stalls or becomes quasi-stationary..Hooray for the models..There is even more energy on the way to merge with 98L in the Eastern Caribbean moving west.You can see it on post# 794.That should be interesting to watch...
oooooOOOOO00000 - now I get the "interesting"
Why isn't 98L a depression now did the circulation weaken?
Quoting hydrus:
I cannot find the vorticity map I want, but there appears to be a spin off of Jamaica also...
Did you read Crown Weather's TWD this morning ? Here is what he thinks might occur.So, in conclusion, I think we may see Invest 98-L reform further northeast along the trough of low pressure that stretches northeast towards Jamaica. My best estimates is that it may reform near 16 North and 80 West.
Quoting IKE:
Listening to weatherguy03's outlook posted 2 days ago, he thinks the tropical season is about over for the lower 48 in 2010...Link

Models for 98L...



The fat lady is singing!!:) Hey, lets enjoy this great weather and get ready for next season. But, we could use some rain across the South.
LOL - yup, Nature still manages to keep us humble -- educated guesses, theories and a whole bunch of stuff we're still quite clueless about - solar weather influences for example...

kinda like predicting a female -- who can get that right 100% of the time??????
I know I personally enjoyed the "element of surprise"
(though I am carefully prepared)
Yikes -- Jamaica doesn't need anymore rain!! I wonder how the coffee plantations are doing????
Quoting surfmom:
kinda like predicting a female -- who can get that right 100% of the time??????

Certainly not me. I gave up even trying long ago... :-)
this is more loking like a paolma of 2008 same set up, everyone wrote it off excludind moi but it took everyone by surprise curve away from grand cayman on the south side headed ene and smack dab in cayman brac and little cayman, mmmmmmmmm. could this really happen again????
Quoting surfmom:
oooooOOOOO00000 - now I get the "interesting"
The NAM model in four days..
Quoting IKE:
Listening to weatherguy03's outlook posted 2 days ago, he thinks the tropical season is about over for the lower 48 in 2010...Link

Models for 98L...



Why not include the other two states in that as well? When was the last time a hurricane hit Alaska? And the EPac is on its way to a record quiet year, and the CPac is on its way to tying a record quiet year, so it looks like Hawai'i's in the clear.
Quoting nwFLstormstalker:
Its moistening up here in the gulf region. Pensacola on the panhandle and there is condensation on surfaces.
...your under a bubble of sinking air(ridge aloft),it may be moist in the mornings,but your region is far from truley moistining up dominanted by ridging aloft,all though you may get lucky and get brief precip mid-end week imo
Quoting surfmom:
LOL - yup, Nature still manages to keep us humble -- educated guesses, theories and a whole bunch of stuff we're still quite clueless about - solar weather influences for example...

kinda like predicting a female -- who can get that right 100% of the time??????
I know I personally enjoyed the "element of surprise"
(though I am carefully prepared)


In 10 days we will be celebrating our 31st wedding anniversary... and I am still trying to bat .500 figuring SWMBO out.
Can someone explain to me what exactly a Hebert box is? Thanks!
trust me guys Jamaica dont need any more rain i spent a week oever there got back last thur and the roads are damaged badly, you can still get around but carefully, saw complete biulding that were wash away by water from man made gully's, major damages to all areas wanna see pics go to www.jamaicaobserver.com
I KNEW IT stormwatcherCI YES I DID HA HA

So, in conclusion, I think we may see Invest 98-L reform further northeast along the trough of low pressure that stretches northeast towards Jamaica. My best estimates is that it may reform near 16 North and 80 West.
Vorticity around invest.

Divergence map, see you are all correct.

Quoting hurristat:
Can someone explain to me what exactly a Hebert box is? Thanks!


Google is your friend.. and not that complicated.. you should try it sometime

Link
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I KNEW IT stormwatcherCI YES I DID HA HA

So, in conclusion, I think we may see Invest 98-L reform further northeast along the trough of low pressure that stretches northeast towards Jamaica. My best estimates is that it may reform near 16 North and 80 West.
It looks like that is what is currently occurring. Did you go read the entire discussion ?
1010 10 10 10
Guten Morgen Grothar. Thanks for the maps.
Quoting Orcasystems:


Google is your friend.. and not that complicated.. you should try it sometime

Link


Thank you muchly -- I figured I could get a better explanation from the intelligent people here, but Wikipedia also has intelligent people too, so that works.
Quoting Orcasystems:


In 10 days we will be celebrating our 31st wedding anniversary... and I am still trying to bat .500 figuring SWMBO out.
I was told a long time ago, do not try to figure them out...dont even think about it...:)
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Guten Morgen Grothar. Thanks for the maps.


Bitte, sehr! Nice images. I believe they are scrambling to get a true fix on the system before posting the models. Unusual that none has a handle on the motion yet. A little early for "Trick or Treat"
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
1010 10 10 10
YOU SCORED !!!!!!!! I wondered who the Lucky Pyrate would be
Quoting FLdewey:

LOL... would that make this season a gutter ball?
The baby in your avatar looks irate. The Gerber not warm enough? :)
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
this is more loking like a paolma of 2008 same set up, everyone wrote it off excludind moi but it took everyone by surprise curve away from grand cayman on the south side headed ene and smack dab in cayman brac and little cayman, mmmmmmmmm. could this really happen again????
certainly HOPE NOT -- but greedy, piggy surfer that I am (mea culpa) if it throws me some swell & NO TROUBLE to my ISLAND AMIGO'S -- I'd be happy surfer
Quoting hydrus:
I was told a long time ago, do not try to figure them out...dont even think about it...:)


I've got it all figured out, except for one thing. How to answer the question, "Does this color make me look fat?"
Quoting hydrus:
The NAM model in four days..
hummmmmm almost to the wave maker square....weeeee shall seeeeee - if it's a trick or treat for me
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
1010 10 10 10
makes for a perfect day IMHO
HIGH WIND SHEAR TO THE NORTH OF INVEST 98L.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It looks like that is what is currently occurring. Did you go read the entire discussion ?


Where can I find this discussion? Thanks.
Quoting FLdewey:

LOL... would that make this season a gutter ball?


Too bad DestinJeff isn't on. He could really run with that line. What year is he allowed back on, by the way?
Quoting Orcasystems:


In 10 days we will be celebrating our 31st wedding anniversary... and I am still trying to bat .500 figuring SWMBO out.
Give it up BigFish - like the weather you ain't ever going to....just be sure to wear your rain jacket or rubbers --so there's no surprises heh, heh, heh
Quoting Grothar:


Bitte, sehr! Nice images. I believe they are scrambling to get a true fix on the system before posting the models. Unusual that none has a handle on the motion yet. A little early for "Trick or Treat"
I agree. They don't even know at this point where the "center" will actually be and until then the models will be all over the place.
Quoting Grothar:


Bitte, sehr! Nice images. I believe they are scrambling to get a true fix on the system before posting the models. Unusual that none has a handle on the motion yet. A little early for "Trick or Treat"
I was wondering if you read the Geritol post of the day yesterday(posted in your honor of course) I hope it brightened your already sunny day Gro...Oh, by the way, the have Geritol 100,000 now for those like you at a rather advanced age. Even though you are in fact considerably older than that, it may help in some instances..:)...I found this interesting..
Quoting kmanhurricaneman:
trust me guys Jamaica dont need any more rain i spent a week oever there got back last thur and the roads are damaged badly, you can still get around but carefully, saw complete biulding that were wash away by water from man made gully's, major damages to all areas wanna see pics go to www.jamaicaobserver.com

Indeed not GOOD!! Any information how this is affecting their farm exports - mostly coffee??? Yes I love my Jamaican Coffee. Economically this is the last thing Jamaica needs ***sigh***
Quoting kimoskee:


Where can I find this discussion? Thanks.
Link

Good one to bookmark.
Quoting Grothar:


Too bad DestinJeff isn't on. He could really run with that line. What year is he allowed back on, by the way?
LOL I could too, but I don't want to end up where he is.
859. IKE
Quoting weatherguy03:


The fat lady is singing!!:) Hey, lets enjoy this great weather and get ready for next season. But, we could use some rain across the South.


I've had an inch+ of rain the last 1 1/2 months. Could use the rain.
Well, Farmer's Almanac says today's the day for planting lettuce - so I'm off to play in the dirt - Peaceful Sunday to ALL that visit.

Surf Report just in - humpfh - he just dashed my hopes.....
Surfers Perspective on 98L / AuraSurf-M.Weaver
Wall to wall sunshine, lower humidity and perfect WX but no surf in sight. That invest down south will only serve to pull more northerly flow our way. Not a chance for surf from it. And just not enough northerly flow to give us a wave. Looks like a perfect week, mid 80's and upper 60's. Great for the beach and boating but just forget about surfing unless you are traveling somewhere.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Link

Good one to bookmark.


Thanks much and yes I've bookmarked it.

I'm very nervous about what's happening south of us. I wish I could wish it away!
hydrus, is that a current SST map?
Quoting kimoskee:


Thanks much and yes I've bookmarked it.

I'm very nervous about what's happening south of us. I wish I could wish it away!
I know what you mean. My daughter and her husband took my two grand-daughters(17&3)to Jamaica to visit her husband's family and they went to Canada on vacation. I was a nervous wreck talking to the 17 yr old on the phone last night when she was telling me the rain wasn't holding up at all. Reading the horror stories about flooding down there has me going nuts.
864. IKE
Bye-bye Otto...

...OTTO NOW POST-TROPICAL...EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AZORES ON MONDAY...
11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 10
Location: 37.3°N 41.1°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: NE at 43 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb
Quoting hydrus:
I was wondering if you read the Geritol post of the day yesterday(posted in your honor of course) I hope it brightened your already sunny day Gro...Oh, by the way, the have Geritol 100,000 now for those like you at a rather advanced age. Even though you are in fact considerably older than that, it may help in some instances..:)...I found this interesting..


Yes, I did!! But by the time I found my walker and keyboard, it was too late to respond. I might have fallen asleep. I really don't have the same energy I had back in 1918. Go figure.
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Oct. 10th. 2010


As always, very good Bob. Thank You very much.
It looks like the center is forming in between the two blobs right along 80W.
Quoting surfmom:
POST791 - Bring on the MOISTURE -- my skin is NOT fond of this dry air & at my age I want all the moisture I can get....
Good thing I mulch hay over my soil in the veggie garden -- been a great help keeping the soil moist while my veggie seedlings start popping up.

I like an appropriate amount of rain w/ a dash of waves......just in case MaNature is taking orders

Yes, Aislinn - Peace is Prevailing this Morning - howz that pup????


Morning Surfmom,

She's doing well, still not back to her self, but improving. When they only weigh five pounds, any illness can be dangerous.

I'm with you, I need some moisture in the air. It's essential for my well being. *S*

Tropical storm winds in the house today as I clean parrot cages and dog room, steam clean carpets and finish moving rooms around so number two son has a room to sleep in. His old bedroom is now daughters, number three son is now in livingroom as a bedroom, number one son's bedroom is now a dog room. I will need a vacation after this weekend!
Quoting surfmom:
LOL I could too, but I don't want to end up where he is.


They just keep throwing these lines at us. Constraint is getting more difficult.
870. 7544
98l looks good this am but most of the models kill it hmm waiting for the new runs and we may see a center reforming at80 w ?
Quoting Grothar:


They just keep throwing these lines at us. Constraint is getting more difficult.
This trough might dig in a little deeper than expected...Kinda like the last one..
Quoting Grothar:


They just keep throwing these lines at us. Constraint is getting more difficult.

That's why I'm heading out to the garden to get DIRTY
LOL Don't want to walk the plank
Whew! Aislinn good to hear the pup is okay - indeed at 5lbs -going south can be quick!!! sounds like my summer when eldest returned home between jobs -- the house seemed to shrink & the male energy ..was like combined ACE of several storms - life & weather --so very much alike.
Now I must hit the dirt
Quoting weatherwart:
hydrus, is that a current SST map?
Yesterday,s I believe...Hers,s today..
Quoting IKE:


I've had an inch+ of rain the last 1 1/2 months. Could use the rain.
So Dry...need water...eyelids... sticking ...together..water!.....aaaaaaack
Quoting kimoskee:


Thanks much and yes I've bookmarked it.

I'm very nervous about what's happening south of us. I wish I could wish it away!
well, I can help in my little way
Prayers UP^ & Candle lit
(every little bit helps - keeping the Island(s) in mind)


Looks NW. The previous one had it more WNW.
HurricaneOtto
09Oct 03pmGMT - - 30.7n55.7w - - 75mph - . - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#14
09Oct 06pmGMT - - 31.7n54.0w - - 65knots - - 984mb -- NHC-ATCF
09Oct 09pmGMT - - 32.4n52.6w - - 75mph - . - 984mb -- NHC.Adv.#15
TropicalStormOtto
10Oct 12amGMT - - 33.1n50.4w - - 60knots - - 988mb -- NHC-ATCF
10Oct 03amGMT - - 33.9n48.7w - - 70mph - . - 988mb -- NHC.Adv.#16
10Oct 06amGMT - - 34.3n46.8w - - 55knots - - 987mb -- NHC-ATCF
10Oct 09amGMT - - 35.3n45.0w - - 65mph - . - 987mb -- NHC.Adv. #17
10Oct 12pmGMT - - 36.3n42.8w - - 55knots - - 987mb -- NHC-ATC
Otto now post-tropical
10Oct 03pmGMT - - 37.3n41.1w - - 65mph - . - 987mb -- NHC.Adv.#18

55knots=~63.3mph=~101.9km/h __ 65mph=~104.6km/h __ 60knots=~69mph=~111.1km/h
70mph=~112.7km/h __ 65knots=~74.8mph=~120.4km/h __ 75mph=~120.7k/h
MaximumSustainedWind speeds are rounded to the nearest 5mph or to the nearest 5knots

Copy&paste 30.7n55.7w, 31.7n54.0w, 32.4n52.6w, 33.1n50.4w, 33.9n48.7w-34.3n46.8w, 34.3n46.8w-35.3n45.0w, 35.3n45.0w-36.3n42.8w, 36.3n42.8w-37.3n41.1w, bda, hor, 37.3n41.1w-flw into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours

At the moving speed averaged between the positions spanning the last 3hours,
(ex)Otto's center will begin passing the Azores in ~14hours.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I know what you mean. My daughter and her husband took my two grand-daughters(17&3)to Jamaica to visit her husband's family and they went to Canada on vacation. I was a nervous wreck talking to the 17 yr old on the phone last night when she was telling me the rain wasn't holding up at all. Reading the horror stories about flooding down there has me going nuts.


Yes some of the stories are unbelievable and heartbreaking. Fortunately, I haven't heard of anymore loss of life but alot of property destruction. Just keep in touch with your family. I'm sure everything will work out.

I'm in Kingston. It's very overcast but not raining at this time.
Quoting hydrus:
This trough might dig in a little deeper than expected...Kinda like the last one..


You're sure that is a trough and not a front? LOL remember the discussion last night? You gave some good answers.
OTTO NOW POST-TROPICAL...EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH OF THE AZORES ON MONDAY
11:00 AM AST Sun Oct 10
Location: 37.3°N 41.1°W
Max sustained: 65 mph
Moving: NE at 43 mph
Min pressure: 987 mb

wow 43mph its very fast
Quoting kimoskee:


Yes some of the stories are unbelievable and heartbreaking. Fortunately, I haven't heard of anymore loss of life but alot of property destruction. Just keep in touch with your family. I'm sure everything will work out.

I'm in Kingston. It's very overcast but not raining at this time.
They are in Mandeville but the houses are on a hill but my daughter said is like cliff. Tried to call this morning but her phone is off. I guess it is either dead or she is sleeping still. I will try a little later.
Good Morning, I see the LLC of 98L exposed at 12.5N/80.5W SE of the heaviest convection, circulation looks like a vigorous one so I think if stays away from CA, it could be come a significant system , JMO
Quoting WeatherMum:
So Dry...need water...eyelids... sticking ...together..water!.....aaaaaaack


Send your buckets and we'll fill them with rain from Jamaica.
Whats that developing near Jamaica? I know that we have 98L out there, but north east of him, there appears to be another system or just a blowup of thunderstorms over Jamaica.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
They are in Mandeville but the houses are on a hill but my daughter said is like cliff. Tried to call this morning but her phone is off. I guess it is either dead or she is sleeping still. I will try a little later.


Hehe. It might seem like a cliff but it's probably just a bump to the folks that live there. It always amazes me how we take for granted the topography (is that the right word) where we live. I was so use to the Blue Mountains that when I went to Florida and saw what they call a hill I thought it was a sleeping policeman. LOL
1100 AM EDT SUN 10 OCTOBER 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z OCTOBER 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-131

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01HHA INVEST
C. 11/1400Z
D. 14.5N 82.5W
E. 11/1730Z TO 11/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 71
A. 12/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0218A CYCLONE
C. 12/0200Z
D. 16.0N 83.5W
E. 12/0500Z TO 12/0900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES IF
SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
Quoting kimoskee:


Hehe. It might seem like a cliff but it's probably just a bump to the folks that live there. It always amazes me how we take for granted the topography (is that the right word) where we live. I was so use to the Blue Mountains that when I went to Florida and saw what they call a hill I thought it was a sleeping policeman. LOL
I know what you mean. I am originally from Pennsylvania although I left there many years ago I know what mountains are. LOL
Its pretty likely we'll squeeze another name out in the sw/nw caribbean sea but that strong westerly flow across sfl isn't going anywere anytime soon.
What in the world are you talking about stormpetrol
ok I see what what you are seeing but that is not the COC well the new one anyway that is a old on and dying if you look you see the band from that one are defusing and going up to the new one to the north near 14N and you will see the bigger stronger bands go staight into the the COC
Quoting Grothar:


Too bad DestinJeff isn't on. He could really run with that line. What year is he allowed back on, by the way?
Yea, odd.
I think he got it for making a joke.
That's funny...not.
Suspect if 98L tries to spin up it will take a path somewhat similar to Hurricane Paloma. Doubt it will be a US threat.
It looks less organized this morning if you ask me. The globals have really backed off on development.

The sinking air across most of the caribbean sea may have something to do with that.
Now that he's no longer with us as a tropical entity, here's the post-mortem on Otto:

ACE: 4.655
HDP: 2.8825
Initial Tropical TWO : 11AM EDT 2010/10/07
Final Tropical TWO : 5AM EDT 2010/01/10
TWOs as TS: 6 (36 HOURS / 1.5 days)
TWOs as HU: 6 (36 HOURS / 1.5 days)
TWOs as MH: 0
Total TWOs: 12 (72 hours / 3.0 days)

(The above data only reflects the time Otto spent as a tropical storm or hurricane. Time spent as the following is not included: tropical or subtropical depression; subtropical, extra-tropical, or post-tropical storm.)

This will be on the end-of-year quiz, so make sure you study it. :-)
Quoting hurricane23:
Its pretty likely we'll squeeze another name out in the sw/nw caribbean sea but that strong westerly flow across sfl isn't going anywere anytime soon.
No, I don't see that current pattern over south FL changing anytime soon; but yeah, I'd be surprised if the Caribbean doesn't see at least one more, regardless of status...TD or TS, or invests.
so CybrTeddy you think we will get it then and if so by when
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Suspect if 98L tries to spin up it will take a path somewhat similar to Hurricane Paloma. Doubt it will be a US threat.

It was sure looking eerily that way for a good chunk of day yesterday. However, I think the current shear & upper-level conditions may still work to stimie some of her development for at least the present moment...


A U.S threat at this time is looking very more unlikely.
Mid Level Shear (12:00Z)


RAMSDIS Visible Loop
900. IKE
Now she's singing... about the tropical threat the rest of this season along the northern GOM....

Quoting hurricane23:
It looks less organized this morning if you ask me. The globals have really backed off on development.

The sinking air across most of the caribbean sea may have something to do with that.
I agree.
Quoting IKE:
Now she's singing... about the tropical threat the rest of this season along the northern GOM....



Oh, God!!! Make her stop, please! I'll do ANYTHING!!!
Quoting hurricane23:
It looks less organized this morning if you ask me. The globals have really backed off on development.

The sinking air across most of the caribbean sea may have something to do with that.
Yep...agreed.
Quoting IKE:
Now she's singing... about the tropical threat the rest of this season along the northern GOM....

LOL
Quoting IKE:
Now she's singing... about the tropical threat the rest of this season along the northern GOM....



LOL...Ike, how long have you had that one tucked away and waiting for the right moment?
Come to think of it IKE, you were on the ball with this weeks ago when you were making a case that the GOM season was beginning to really wind down...
Good morn- ah.... afternoon to all and sundry....

We are having some wonderful weather here this weekend after some midweek nastiness connected with that FROPA.... lots of sunny mostly clear skies with only the white puffies to add a bit of contrast... I think I will try to get some yard duties in while the sun's about, especially given the forecasts for the upcoming week.

Also, this is a holiday weekend, observing the 507th anniversary of Columbus' arrival in the New World, so we have tomorrow off. I sure hope the weather stays fine....

Quoting hurristat:


Thank you muchly -- I figured I could get a better explanation from the intelligent people here, but Wikipedia also has intelligent people too, so that works.
Some of the intelligent pple on here ARE the intelligent pple on Google, especially as it comes 2 tropical wx.... lol

But yeah, the wx resources on Google are not at all bad.
No rain in Kingston right now
Quoting surfmom:

Indeed not GOOD!! Any information how this is affecting their farm exports - mostly coffee??? Yes I love my Jamaican Coffee. Economically this is the last thing Jamaica needs ***sigh***


We sure don't need anymore rain right now. Continues to be overcast in Kingston although the sun did peek out for a bit but no rain at this time. Looking at the Met Service radar it appears the western end of Jamaica got some showers earlier this morning

The rains has affected agriculture but not as bad as previous times, although the true effects will not be known right away. Pictures of Nicole's Damage on Jamaica Gleaner
910. IKE
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


LOL...Ike, how long have you had that one tucked away and waiting for the right moment?


About 2-3 weeks.

Quoting cat5hurricane:
Come to think of it IKE, you were on the ball with this weeks ago when you were making a case that the GOM season was beginning to really wind down...


The closest threats all season....



and...

Quoting IKE:


About 2-3 weeks.



The closest threats all season....



and...


...and who would of thought? Not me anyway. At the time of Bonnie, I'm thinking this could be just laying the foundation for bigger things the next couple months. Guess I was dead wrong thinking that!
912. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:

...and who would of thought? Not me anyway. At the time of Bonnie, I'm thinking this could be just laying the foundation for bigger things the next couple months. Guess I was dead wrong thinking that!


I thought the same thing too.
Quoting hurricane23:
Its pretty likely we'll squeeze another name out in the sw/nw caribbean sea but that strong westerly flow across sfl isn't going anywere anytime soon.
Hey, Adrian. I think we're going to end up with more than one before the season's all said and done. IMO, we're in a lull right now, and prolly won't see additional formation over the next decade (not counting whatever may come of 98L). But I wouldn't be surprised to see something in the CAR in the latter part of this month or even into November. And given the relatively weird impact points all season, who knows where it will end up?
Paula will set the stage for Richard, and then Shary will step up to the plate. The New York Mets will then decide on whether to move the franchise to England, based on the UK/MET. I then predict that The Gap will sue the NHC for rights to the NOGAP.

This season is finally getting off the ground.
BBL
Quoting donna1960ruled:
Paula will set the stage for Richard, and then Shary will step up to the plate. The New York Mets will then decide on whether to move the franchise to England, based on the UK/MET. I then predict that The Gap will sue the NHC for rights to the NOGAP.

This season is finally getting off the ground.




????/
98L doesn't look as good as it did yesterday.
Quoting Ameister12:
98L doesn't look as good as it did yesterday.
opitcal illusion , its much more organized IMO , signs of ventilation on the west side also, wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to TD before the day is out, JMO
Quoting stormpetrol:
opitcal illusion , its much more organized IMO , signs of ventilation on the west side also, wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to TD before the day is out, JMO
I don't think so
Good Sunday afternoon.
Did anything happen at 10:10, this 10/10/10?
Apparently not.
Oh Well, 11:11, 11/11/11 is coming...

It feels like the dryseason is here.
A 'proper' breeze all morning, blue sky, puffy little cloud scudding by, and temps in the low 90's.

98L is hanging on by the hair of it's armpits, if you ask me.
More rain for Cuba and Jamaica, and maybe beyond.
But nutt'n else, atall atall.

SST Temps are going to plummet in the GOM this week coming, and in spite of any other conditions, there can hardly be a storm there.

South west Caribbean sea could possibly spawn something, but it would have nowhere to go for development.

Heavy rains are still a strong possibility in the Islands and Central America, and I suppose up the Eastern seaboard as well, if something can get going in the Trop. Atl., during the next 4 weeks or so.
Quoting stormpetrol:
opitcal illusion , its much more organized IMO , signs of ventilation on the west side also, wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to TD before the day is out, JMO

Invest 98L has consolidated everything into the central core of Low pressure. A TD by 11AM EDT on Monday, before heading into Central America.
Quoting stormpetrol:
opitcal illusion , its much more organized IMO , signs of ventilation on the west side also, wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to TD before the day is out, JMO

98L has improved in convection today, but the structure looked better last night. I still say it's possible for a TD to form tonight or tomorrow, but I think tomorrow is a lot more likely.
What is this circular blob of warm water off the West coast of Mexico? Where did THAT come from?


http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/?index_region=ep

98L will be difficult to forecast. It could hang around for awhile before developement. This is not unusaul for systems in the Western Caribbean in October and November. I wouldnt write her off yet. I think she may be forming a COC farther to the NE and miss CA. IMO
Trinidad now--
91F
55% humid.
1013 falling pressure (its getting to siesta time, is the reason for the 'falling' pressure)
Winds east to 18 mph
Heat Index 100f

Suits me, just fine.
Another Lager is called for...
Looks like my 'Lager' reference has sent everyone scurrying off to the nearest ice-box...
The blog died... again.
929. beell
The central US cut-off low and trough appears strong enough/south enough to lift 98L out of the Caribbean. Into some well-advertised hostile conditions.


Cent US WV Loop
Quoting Ameister12:

98L has improved in convection today, but the structure looked better last night. I still say it's possible for a TD to form tonight or tomorrow, but I think tomorrow is a lot more likely.

You are correct, that tomorrow looks more likely than today, but really only because today is not possible.
Tomorrow is not really very likely either though....
98L looking good this afternoon. 2PM will likely keep it at 60%, or raise it to 70%
Here's a poll.

What will 98l's percentage be at 2?

A) 50% or less.
B) 60%
C) 70%
D) More than 70%.

I think 98l will remain at 60%.
Quoting stormpetrol:
opitcal illusion , its much more organized IMO , signs of ventilation on the west side also, wouldn't be surprised to see this upgraded to TD before the day is out, JMO


I agree! What are these people smoking on here today.
Quoting pottery:

You are correct, that tomorrow looks more likely than today, but really only because today is not possible.
Tomorrow is not really very likely either though....


Are you really saying that 98L cannot become a Tropical Depression today?

REALLY? :\
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I agree.


????
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
98L looking good this afternoon. 2PM will likely keep it at 60%, or raise it to 70%

Like someone said here recently, if you have 2 people commenting here on 1 system, you are likely to get 3 or 4 options as to what will happen.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Are you really saying that 98L cannot become a Tropical Depression today?

REALLY? :\

Well, actually, it could!
But that would depend on the Venturi Effect within the Oslo Fiord, along with an upsurge of Magnetic Influences in the Bermuda Triangle, which needs to pulse in harmony with the expected Tidal Bore in the mouth of the Amazon.
So the chances are remote today.
Quoting scott39:
98L will be difficult to forecast. It could hang around for awhile before developement. This is not unusaul for systems in the Western Caribbean in October and November. I wouldnt write her off yet. I think she may be forming a COC farther to the NE and miss CA. IMO
Direction wise, it will be all about intensity with this one, which is notoriously difficult in this location, at this time of the year .... if not impossible.
Satellite Observations show that Invest 98L is nearing Tropical Depression status. Banding features can be seen coming in from the Northwest, and Southeast, right into the system. Convection is sustaining itself, and has been for over 12 hours now. Satellite Imagery also shows that is pretty obvious there is a well-defined circulation, and previous passes of ASCAT show that 98L has the winds of Tropical Depression intensity, or close to it. I give the system a 80% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression or higher within the next 48 hours (Monday [Noon]).

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Satellite Observations show that Invest 98L is nearing Tropical Depression status. Banding features can be seen coming in from the Northwest, and Southeast, right into the system. Convection is sustaining itself, and has been for over 12 hours now. Satellite Imagery also shows that is pretty obvious there is a well-defined circulation, and previous passes of ASCAT show that 98L has the winds of Tropical Depression intensity, or close to it. I give the system a 80% chance of developing into a Tropical Depression or higher within the next 48 hours (Monday [Noon]).


Nice post. Good points.
Meant to be on the lighter side. One thing I have learned about storms and this site is when someone uses the phraseology that storm X is not looking good right now, it means little. Especially during D-min.

Something has to eventually blow the top off the Gulf..might be 98L
Quoting scott39:
98L will be difficult to forecast. It could hang around for awhile before developement. This is not unusaul for systems in the Western Caribbean in October and November. I wouldnt write her off yet. I think she may be forming a COC farther to the NE and miss CA. IMO
Believe it or not, I actually agree with you. It has looked for several hours like it is forming a coc to the NE. Crown Weather also said he thinks that is what will happen.
Quoting Herbertsbox:
Meant to be on the lighter side. One thing I have learned about storms and this site is when someone uses the phraseology that storm X is not looking good right now, it means little. Especially during D-min.

Something has to eventually blow the top off the Gulf..might be 98L

I am actually hoping that nothing "blows the top off the GOM" because I am fascinated to know what will occur next, if it does not happen.
Quoting Ameister12:
98L doesn't look as good as it did yesterday.


I disagree.. it isn't a shapeless blob.

NHC will keep it at 60% though imo.
This is now an ex-blog.
The new blog is here.Link