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Western Caribbean disturbance 97L likely to become a tropical depression

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:39 PM GMT on November 03, 2009

An area of low pressure with a surface circulation has developed in the Southwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Costa Rica. This disturbance, designated Invest 97L by the National Hurricane Center this morning, appears likely to develop into a tropical depression over the next two days. Satellite loops clearly show that 97L has a surface circulation, and low-level spiral bands have begun to develop. There is not very much heavy thunderstorm activity, though it is steadily increasing. An ASCAT pass from 10pm EST last night showed top winds of about 30 mph in the heaviest thunderstorms.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Invest 97L.

The disturbance is currently under moderate wind shear, 10 - 15 knots, and shear is expected to remain in the moderate range for the next five days over the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are 29°C and the Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential is about 40 kJ/cm^2, which is plenty of energy for a hurricane to form. There is dry air over the northern Caribbean, but this is too far north to slow down development over the next three days. The main limiting factor for development will be the slow movement of the 97L, which will allow it to stir up cold water from the depths, cooling surface SSTs.

The forecast for 97L
Steering currents are weak in the Southwest Caribbean, and 97L will move little over the next three days. If the disturbance intensifies into a tropical storm in the next three days, as seems likely, 97L will tap into moisture from the Pacific Ocean. This moisture will flow over Costa Rica, western Panama, and southern Nicaragua into 97L's circulation, bringing 4 - 8 inches of rain to these areas Wednesday through Friday. There is a high potential for life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in these regions. By Friday, steering currents are expected to pull 97L north or northwest, along the coast of Nicaragua or inland over northeastern Nicaragua and Honduras. By Monday, 97L may pass over Western Cuba and enter the Gulf of Mexico, as predicted by the ECMWF model; an alternate solution, provided by the GFS model, keeps the storm farther south, pushing it into Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. With the storm just beginning to organize and steering currents weak, it is impossible to rate the likelihood of these scenarios. NHC is currently giving 97L a medium (30 - 50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday. I rate 97L's chances at high (greater than 50%). An Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 97L on Wednesday afternoon.

Typhoon Mirinae kills at least 40 in Vietnam
Typhoon Mirinae is no more, but has left in its wake serious flooding in the Philippines and Vietnam. Mirinae hit Vietnam yesterday as a Category 1 typhoon, dumping rains responsible for at least 40 deaths, with 11 people missing. Vietnam is still recovering from the effects of Typhoon Ketsana last month, which left 163 dead and $801 million in damage.

In the Philippines, residents are cleaning up the mess left by Mirinae, which hit Luzon Island on Saturday as a borderline Category 1 or 2 typhoon with 95 - 100 mph winds. Mirinae killed at least sixteen people in the Philippines. Rainfall amounts from the typhoon in the Philippines were less than six inches, but that was enough to create substantial flooding, due to the saturated soils left by two previous typhoons.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I am still quite content with the season activity..10, possible 11 depressions and a couple unnamed systems, the season was full of surprises and information.
Looks impressive.
why is 97L not a depression and not in a red circle?
i see three disturbances next to each other epac one refuses to move west seems to be pushing the w.carib disturbance never been impressed with kingdom weather cheap joeb just another speculator
With 97L getting better and better organized, I believe any EPAC Low interaction is getting less and less likely. In comparison to all the other SW Carib. lows this one looks like the real thing and should eventually be sterring northward or Northnorthwest by the mid levels and not go inland like past systems which were weak and steering by shallow layers...IMO
Quoting all4hurricanes:
why is 97L not a depression and not in a red circle?


I suspect red at 8am (my time) and depression probably after reccon.
Red at 7AM?
1008. Keys99
Good Morning Weather 456 How does this forecast from Key West Weather Play into any North Movement of 97l?

.SHORT TERM...
GRADUALLY OUR WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH INCREASES IN STRENGTH. THURSDAY NIGHT THIS PROCESS WILL
GO INTO HIGH GEAR. OUR GUIDANCE TAKES A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW IN
THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC. OVER THE WATER ITS THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS GREATLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE SHOWING SPEEDS TO 150 KNOTS.
THIS INDUCES A STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION AND TROPOPAUSE FOLD CAUSING
"BOMBO-GENESIS" NEAR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. IN TURN THIS CREATES A
LOT OF DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION OFF ITS WEST FLANK. THE SINKING FEEDS
INTO THE HIGH CELL WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING THE MOTIVE POWER FOR OUR
LOCAL WIND FIELD. TRAJECTORIES ADD TO THE MOMENTUM GENERATED AND A
SIGNIFICANT FETCH OPENS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM CAPE COD TO
GREEN TURTLE CAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...
BY FRIDAY OUR WINDS SHOULD BE HOWLING OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST 20
TO 25 KNOTS. WE EXPECT HIGHER GUSTS DUE TO THE TURBULENT MIXING OF
LOCAL AIR WITH EVER-HIGHER POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER
THE GULF STREAM. THE INCOMING AIR WILL BE COMPARATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE BUT AT THESE VELOCITIES LOCAL-SCALE CONVERGENCE WILL SURELY
CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WARM WATER. BY TUESDAY WE SHOULD
SEE THINGS RELAX. THIS WILL BE AN INTERESTING SYSTEM TO OBSERVE AS IT
UNFOLDS -- THERE IS A LOT OF METEOROLOGY GOING ON.
1009. IKE
I think Bastardi is going to be wrong about 97L going to the Yucatan channel, if that's what he thinks.

I'll go with the NHC reasoning of strong high pressure building into the NW Caribbean sea. That should help force 97L over land. Problem is...flooding rains for the area affected.


Long-term from Mobile,AL...goes along with the latest GFS and ECMWF.

"LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)REMAINING DRY ON SATURDAY AS
THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO EASE OFF TO THE EAST AND FLOW OVER THE
AREA REMAINS MOSTLY EASTERLY. BY SUNDAY THE LOW PRESSURE THAT IS
OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF SHOULD HAVE MOVED TO THE NORTH AND BE OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB UP OVER AN INCH
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS NORTH FROM THE
LOW AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE AREA. ENOUGH SO THAT WE WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER
THE COASTAL ZONES ON SUNDAY. GFS AND EURO GUIDANCE HAS THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY."

Rather 97L could be consider a depression....it has pass the stage of just an area of thunderstorms. It seems like fully functioning system. Lets see what the NHC does.

1011. IKE
Keys99...if the Key West outlook verifies, no way 97L affects Florida. Strong high pressure will drive it WNW to NW.

I'm gonna see what Miami and Tampa and Orlando offices say.
Quoting Keys99:
Good Morning Weather 456 How does this forecast from Key West Weather Play into any North Movement of 97l?

.SHORT TERM...
GRADUALLY OUR WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTH INCREASES IN STRENGTH. THURSDAY NIGHT THIS PROCESS WILL
GO INTO HIGH GEAR. OUR GUIDANCE TAKES A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE LOW IN
THE MAIN BRANCH OF THE WESTERLIES OUT OF NEW ENGLAND AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC. OVER THE WATER ITS THERMAL GRADIENT TIGHTENS GREATLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF A COUPLED JET STRUCTURE SHOWING SPEEDS TO 150 KNOTS.
THIS INDUCES A STRATOSPHERIC INTRUSION AND TROPOPAUSE FOLD CAUSING
"BOMBO-GENESIS" NEAR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND. IN TURN THIS CREATES A
LOT OF DOWNWARD VERTICAL MOTION OFF ITS WEST FLANK. THE SINKING FEEDS
INTO THE HIGH CELL WHICH WILL BE PROVIDING THE MOTIVE POWER FOR OUR
LOCAL WIND FIELD. TRAJECTORIES ADD TO THE MOMENTUM GENERATED AND A
SIGNIFICANT FETCH OPENS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM CAPE COD TO
GREEN TURTLE CAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...
BY FRIDAY OUR WINDS SHOULD BE HOWLING OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST 20
TO 25 KNOTS.
WE EXPECT HIGHER GUSTS DUE TO THE TURBULENT MIXING OF
LOCAL AIR WITH EVER-HIGHER POTENTIAL TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER
THE GULF STREAM. THE INCOMING AIR WILL BE COMPARATIVELY DRY AND
STABLE BUT AT THESE VELOCITIES LOCAL-SCALE CONVERGENCE WILL SURELY
CREATE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WARM WATER. BY TUESDAY WE SHOULD
SEE THINGS RELAX. THIS WILL BE AN INTERESTING SYSTEM TO OBSERVE AS IT
UNFOLDS -- THERE IS A LOT OF METEOROLOGY GOING ON.



I love that forecast. the winds coming out the NE is suggestive of high pressure to the N or NE. Now if 97L remains a weak to moderate system, this high will steer 97L NW in the return flow. Now remember those winds are the surface-low-mid levels. The deep layer flow is in the opposite direction and so would favor some of the deep model tracks like the BAMD. Now if you look at the end of either the GFDL or HWRF, you notice a dent back west and that is because the intensity drops with 97L and they think the system will be shallower. Now as I just mentioned a shallow system would veer more towards the west.

In summary, a deep system would head north or east thereof regardless of the high pressure expected to affect your weather.

A shallower system would be steered in the return flow around the high that is expected to affect your weather.
1013. IKE
Miami forecast has wind gusts to over 30 mph by Friday through Sunday....

Extended from Miami...

"EXTENDED FORECAST...

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAIN STATES WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...AND REMAIN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST
INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR THE
WINDS TO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHERLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE SWINGING TO
A NORTHEAST DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND OVER THE CWA. THIS SHOULD KEEP
THE SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING ONSHORE INTO THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND. SO
HAVE REMOVE THE POPS FOR THE EAST COAST AREAS ON FRIDAY...AND KEPT
THE 20 PERCENT POPS FOR THIS SAME AREA THIS WEEKEND. REST OF THE
CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THIS TIME.

THERE COULD ALSO BE RIP CURRENTS FOR THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF
SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND DUE TO THE BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS. SO WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO MORNING
PRODUCTS."

1014. IKE
Long-term from Tampa....

"LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/WESTERN GULF AND A TROUGH
OFF THE EAST U.S. COAST SLIDE EASTWARD WITH A DRY NW FLOW ALOFT THE
FA INTO THE WEEKEND. BY SUN THE RIDGE HAS REACHED THE STATE...WITH
DRY STABLE CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO WEAKEN TUE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE EASTERN U.S. AT THE SURFACE...A RATHER STRONG HIGH CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC/SE U.S. COASTS WILL MAINTAIN ROBUST NE AND EAST
FLOW ACROSS FL UNTIL MON WHEN THE HIGH SLIDES OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THIS WILL SLACKEN THE GRADIENT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING AND TURNING TO
EAST OR ESE. THIS SLIGHT SHIFT IN THE WINDS WILL INCREASE MOISTURE
ENOUGH TO SUGGEST A SHOWER OR TWO TUE. BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY."


Long-term from Melbourne,FL...

"THU-SAT...A FAST MOVING UPR LVL DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO QUICKLY
CROSS THE SE STATES THU...DRAGGING A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. BREEZY WINDS WITH A RESURGENCE OF COOLER AIR ACROSS THE
REGION EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH A NICE AUTUMN COOLDOWN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BRIDGE THE STATE FRI BRINGING A RATHER
RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF ONSHORE FLOW BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER
TO DIRECT EASTERLY COMPONENT SAT WITH CONTINUED AIRMASS
MODIFICATION AND PERHAPS A LOW TOPPED SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE
COAST BY LATE SATURDAY.

EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED AONG THE MID ATLC SEABOARD EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL SLOWLY EASE OFFSHORE AND ELONGATE WITH A
CONTINUATION OF LONG FETCH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE AREA INTO AT
LEAST MIDWEEK. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO OCNL
MARINE BASED SHOWERS MAINLY AT THE COAST WITH SOME INLAND SHOWERS
TO METRO ORLANDO AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND MON-TUE. MARINE
INFLUENCE WILL LEAD TO LIMITED DIURNAL TEMP RANGE WITH SCT CLOUDS.

WL BE WATCHING THE DEEP SW CARIB REGION FOR POSSIBLE SLOW
EMERGENCE OF LOW PRESSURE NWD. THERE PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH ANY
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FEATURE. AN AIRCRAFT IS TENTATIVELY SET FOR AN
INITIAL INVEST THIS AFTERNOON."


Quoting IKE:
Keys99...if the Key West outlook verifies, no way 97L affects Florida. Strong high pressure will drive it WNW to NW.

I'm gonna see what Miami and Tampa and Orlando offices say.


You might be right but the stronger system will travel more north regardless of the strenth of the surface ridge.
By the way MLB and TPA forecasters usually discuss their discussion before release. I find them sometimes as a ditto between them.
456 Where do you draw the line between a shallow system and one that you consider deep. In other words, how deep will 97L have to be to be steered on a more northerly course?
Computer models.. Its possible that what might influence 97L north is a cold front.
Quoting IKE:
Keys99...if the Key West outlook verifies, no way 97L affects Florida. Strong high pressure will drive it WNW to NW.

I'm gonna see what Miami and Tampa and Orlando offices say.


Nope...if 97L becomes a hurricane it will be steered by deep layer flow which is the opposite direction or towards FL.

The high pressure you are speaking of only affects the shallow and mid-levels, a weak system.
1019. IKE
I'm thinking they may go red on the next TWO, but there's been no 6Z runs of the GFDL and HWRF that I've seen.

They could keep it orange for one more outlook.
Quoting portcharlotte:
456 Where do you draw the line between a shallow system and one that you consider deep. In other words, how deep will 97L have to be to be steered on a more northerly course?


anything below 980-970 hpa is sufficiently deep to be steered by the deep layer flow.
Quoting Weather456:



I love that forecast. the winds coming out the NE is suggestive of high pressure to the N or NE. Now if 97L remains a weak to moderate system, this high will steer 97L NW in the return flow. Now remember those winds are the surface-low-mid levels. The deep layer flow is in the opposite direction and so would favor some of the deep model tracks like the BAMD. Now if you look at the end of either the GFDL or HWRF, you notice a dent back west and that is because the intensity drops with 97L and they think the system will be shallower. Now as I just mentioned a shallow system would veer more towards the west.

In summary, a deep system would head north or east thereof regardless of the high pressure expected to affect your weather.

A shallower system would be steered in the return flow around the high that is expected to affect your weather.



456 Where do you draw the line between a shallow system and one that you consider deep. In other words, how deep will 97L have to be to be steered on a more northerly course?
1022. IKE
I see no indication of this being a hurricane.
In other words most likely a hurricane
97L moving slowly nnw.....JMO
Quoting IKE:
I'm thinking they may go red on the next TWO, but there's been no 6Z runs of the GFDL and HWRF that I've seen.

They could keep it orange for one more outlook.


I think it should be red. I also think Recon. will find a TD.
Quoting portcharlotte:
In other words most likely a hurricane


basically yea but it could be a strong tropical storm

Remember Barry of 2007.
Quoting AllStar17:


I think it should be red. I also think Recon. will find a TD.


There have been runs of the 6Z GFDL. I have them on the Accuwx site (Pro). The 6Z GFDl still has a hurricane in the Gulf of Honduras moving north. I can not post this image sonce it has the Accuwx pro address.
1028. Keys99
Quoting Weather456:
Quoting IKE:
Keys99...if the Key West outlook verifies, no way 97L affects Florida. Strong high pressure will drive it WNW to NW.

I'm gonna see what Miami and Tampa and Orlando offices say.


Nope...if 97L becomes a hurricane it will be steered by deep layer flow which is the opposite direction or towards FL.

The high pressure you are speaking of only affects the shallow and mid-levels, a weak system.


So right now it is about a 50/50 chance of going eather N/NW or N/NE Just about what the models are showing. Thanks
Quoting portcharlotte:


There have been runs of the 6Z GFDL. I have them on the Accuwx site (Pro). The 6Z GFDl still has a hurricane in the Gulf of Honduras moving north. I can not post this image sonce it has the Accuwx pro address.


true
Morning
97L is improving in structure and organisation with every new sat frame. to me it looks it has passed depression stage ,and i would not be surprise if the recon were to find tropical storm Ida this afternoon. The lack of movement and the proximity to land are hindering the possible rapid development of this system. be that as it may i believe we have the 9th named storm of the season
Quoting portcharlotte:


There have been runs of the 6Z GFDL. I have them on the Accuwx site (Pro). The 6Z GFDl still has a hurricane in the Gulf of Honduras moving north. I can not post this image sonce it has the Accuwx pro address.


Seems like a system may finally form and is able to feed of the bathtub-like waters in the NW CAR/GOM
Quoting Keys99:


So right now it is about a 50/50 chance of going eather N/NW or N/NE Just about what the models are showing. Thanks


That is a pretty good assessment since there are really no boundaries to what 97L could do.
97L should be a TD at 7am imo.
456, It looks like 97L is moving NW faster than it was?
97L Looks good we may have TD 11 very very soon those of you in the northwest carribean western cuba and the eastern gulf of mexico including south florida and the keys should moniter this system very closely
Quoting stormsurge39:
456, It looks like 97L is moving NW faster than it was?


Over the past 24 hrs, the system drifted within 2 degree towards the NW. The system isn't moving much.
1038. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
700 AM EST WED NOV 4 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME TODAY. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE LOW
REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BLAKE
1039. ackee
97L looks like a TD already thinking red by NHC at 8pm or TD
If the EPAC AOI ramps up, will it stop developement of 97L?
1041. IKE
Quoting ackee:
97L looks like a TD already thinking red by NHC at 8pm or TD


You mean 8am? It is red.

Worst part of this will be the heavy rains...for...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS OVER PORTIONS OF PANAMA...COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND
HONDURAS
1042. IKE
They put out the tropical weather discussion AFTER the outlook and put outdated info on it....come on NHC.....

"...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N81W. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 80W AND THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE THE CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS IS MEDIUM...FROM
30 PERCENT TO 50 PERCENT."

Quoting stormsurge39:
If the EPAC AOI ramps up, will it stop developement of 97L?


that depends. But if it does, not to any great extent, especially if it moves west, which is typical of EPAC systems.
456, how will 97L survive wind shear N of 15 degrees?


GFS same time same place. Link

CMC the same. and showing a ton of rain.

Photobucket

Be back later. Have a good day everyone. :)

NHC broke out their red cranyon.
Quoting stormsurge39:
456, how will 97L survive wind shear N of 15 degrees?


yep, we shouldn't ignore the region of shear to the north. But 97L isn't going anywhere anytime soon, which is ideal because shear does decrease but at a slow rate, By 144 hrs, shear decreases to 20N at which point the system is still in the C Carib. Now the best thing for 97L to do, is to stay put and gradually follow the retreat of the shear and this could be easier if 97L does acquire an upper anticyclone. It is bitter sweet since it could churn up cold water if it stays too long over 1 region.
1049. ackee
quick poll where will 97L go ?

A NW
B WEST
C NE
D staionery for next 5 days
1051. IKE
Quoting ackee:
quick poll where will 97L go ?

A NW
B WEST
C NE
D staionery for next 5 days


I'll go with NW, which it appears to be doing now and is indicated by most of the models.
First visible images of soon to be Td 11

1054. P451
Good Morning. I'm out of Wunderground Jail. My despicable offense was helping another user with a cable/satellite problem. Whew!

Anyways, 48 hours of 97L:

Quoting Weather456:


yep, we shouldn't ignore the region of shear to the north. But 97L isn't going anywhere anytime soon, which is ideal because shear does decrease but at a slow rate, By 144 hrs, shear decreases to 20N at which point the system is still in the C Carib. Now the best thing for 97L to do, is to stay put and gradually follow the retreat of the shear and this could be easier if 97L does acquire an upper anticyclone. It is bitter sweet since it could churn up cold water if it stays too long over 1 region.
Thanks, Has there been a season in the last 10 years where the storms have had sooo many obstacles to overcome?
1056. WxLogic
Good Morning...
1057. P451
Quoting Weather456:
I am still quite content with the season activity..10, possible 11 depressions and a couple unnamed systems, the season was full of surprises and information.


I hope it proves to be a big learning experience in the end. The borderline systems give you a lot of insight into how these things operate. Also all the adversity each system went through could also prove to be a bounty of information in how these develop.

I think we had possibly up to 3 unnamed systems maybe even 4 given the comments of many well informed bloggers who posted throughout the season.
456 develop a anti cyclone then slowly move north
Looks like we will have a TD later today NHC will probably wait for the HH to investigate
1060. ackee
I think THE gfs AND nam may be on to something the low Epac is getting better organize too may put 97L development to a stop
Quoting stormsurge39:
Thanks, Has there been a season in the last 10 years where the storms have had sooo many obstacles to overcome?


of course... Just last Hanna had to tackle shear and Hispaniola.

The answer is every tropical cyclone that forms have to tackle the environment they are in. Tcs are very delicate creatures.

I can name a few others but too numerous to mention.
1062. P451
It probably is already a depression. It looks like it's really starting to intensify in the last few frames. Huge burst of convection after DMax has passed? Usually a good sign of intensification...and a shedding of dependency on the diurnal cycles. I still expect it to finish bursting and then wane some but not to the extent it has been doing. It looks healthy. Let us just pray we don't get a Mitch, Paloma, Omar, Wilma type scenarios. We just don't need that.
1063. P451
Quoting ackee:
I think THE gfs AND nam may be on to something the low Epac is getting better organize too may put 97L development to a stop


They're more of a distance apart than the last time we had this scenario a few weeks ago - the low that moved into Costa Rica, and spawned new lows just east and west of the country. Those systems robbed each other.

This time around even if both develop they're further away, probably enough, and they will be moving even further away from each other as 97 wants to head northward instead of westward like the CR disturbance did.

1064. WxLogic
If 97L has become or because a weak TS... I would expect it to move in a NNW fashion based on the current 500-850MB Steering currents:



I'm pretty sure they'll make it a TD by the time the HHunter arrives today @3PM ET or so.
Quoting P451:
It probably is already a depression. It looks like it's really starting to intensify in the last few frames. Huge burst of convection after DMax has passed? Usually a good sign of intensification...and a shedding of dependency on the diurnal cycles. I still expect it to finish bursting and then wane some but not to the extent it has been doing. It looks healthy. Let us just pray we don't get a Mitch, Paloma, Omar, Wilma type scenarios. We just don't need that.
i truly dont need a hurricane or a tropical storm at that to come towards south florida just a close call to get some heavy rain that we can use
Quoting Seflhurricane:
Looks like we will have a TD later today NHC will probably wait for the HH to investigate
Isnt the EPAC AOI too far W?
New invest in the East Pacific


EP 96 2009110412 BEST 0 110N 915W 20 0 DB
1068. P451


Quoted in wrong place, meant for post 1060.
Good morning.

97L looking pretty good this a.m.
Could the blob in the EPAC draw it westward?
what are the models projecting 97L To go as of now still towards the yucatan channel with some to the left and some to the right ???? climatologically where do they normally move when they develop this far south
Quoting P451:


They're more of a distance apart than the last time we had this scenario a few weeks ago - the low that moved into Costa Rica, and spawned new lows just east and west of the country. Those systems robbed each other.

This time around even if both develop they're further away, probably enough, and they will be moving even further away from each other as 97 wants to head northward instead of westward like the CR disturbance did.



Absolutely right...We're wasting our time discussing the EPAC low ..They are far apart and the EPAC low will help keep 97L away from land.
This is the real mccoy this time.
1073. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
New invest in the East Pacific


EP 96 2009110412 BEST 0 110N 915W 20 0 DB


With this one developing... we could be looking at a little "Fujiwhara Effect" between these two systems very close to C.America. Assuming they both strong enough.
Hi Sefl.
Don't think they updated for this morning.
This is as of 7 p.m. last night:
Quoting P451:


I hope it proves to be a big learning experience in the end. The borderline systems give you a lot of insight into how these things operate. Also all the adversity each system went through could also prove to be a bounty of information in how these develop.

I think we had possibly up to 3 unnamed systems maybe even 4 given the comments of many well informed bloggers who posted throughout the season.


welcome back
The stronger 97L gets, is that when it starts moving, and what direction is it more prone to go with strength?
Invest in EPAC heads west, away from 97L
epac does not seem to be moving west
Quoting stormsurge39:
The stronger 97L gets, is that when it starts moving, and what direction is it more prone to go with strength?


the deeper it can get, the more it can tap the deep layer steering and begin movement. However, the system will take time to deepen.

alternatively, it would have to wait a few days for the high to intrude the area if it is weak.

Either way, 97L has to wait a few more days for definite movement.

04/1145 UTC 10.9N 81.6W T2.0/2.0 97L -- Atlantic
Quoting Weather456:


the deeper it can get, the more it can tap the deep layer steering and begin movement. However, the system will take time to deepen.

alternatively, it would have to wait a few days for the high to intrude the area if it is weak.

Either way, 97L has to wait a few more days for definite movement.

Thanks
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
04/1145 UTC 10.9N 81.6W T2.0/2.0 97L -- Atlantic


I suspected T numbers would increase. 97L looks good.
1086. P451
1087. ackee
I KNOW NONE models really showing this for me 97L WILL stay put for a while head E to NE track going with history of NOV storms
Quoting ackee:
I KNOW NONE models really showing this for me 97L WILL stay put for a while head E to NE track going with history of NOV storms


cant argue with that. Its reasonable
AL 97 2009110412 BEST 0 110N 813W 30 1006 DB
Quoting Weather456:


I suspected T numbers would increase. 97L looks good.
Is the COC SE of the blob of convection?
I did not notice today was November 4. Historical significance. But I'll leave it there.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 97 2009110412 BEST 0 110N 813W 30 1006 DB


you think we could have a renumber for 11am?
Bastardi latest...

He says it's already a depression and that NHC is forecasting something it already is. He also indicates that if the system can avoid Central America and reach the NW CArib then more intensification is likely since there will be ridging in place at that time. I do not want to copy and paste the discussion since it is a paid service. I do not need Accuweather on my case
1094. P451
Quoting leftovers:
epac does not seem to be moving west



Nothing seems to really be going anywhere does it. "Quasistationary" seems to come to mind.

12 hour WV Imagery:

1095. WxLogic
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
AL 97 2009110412 BEST 0 110N 813W 30 1006 DB


Well I guess, it will become officially a TD a bit sooner than expected.
Quoting Weather456:


cant argue with that. Its reasonable
456 what would make 97L unique, and not follow the norm? I read on a weather report this one could be a suprise, as far as the track for this time of year.
Quoting Weather456:


you think we could have a renumber for 11am.


Depends on what the QuikScat shows, so far there is no objective evidence of a closed circulation. It looks like there is one. If not this morning Recon should provide a definitive answer.

12Z SHIPS
Quoting stormsurge39:
Is the COC SE of the blob of convection?


there actually 2 blobs. the center is between the 2 but on the SE edge of the larger blob. This was based on the center given at 8am.
Quoting stormsurge39:
456 what would make 97L unique, and not follow the norm? I read on a weather report this one could be a suprise, as far as the track for this time of year.


November tracks are typical east of north, so 97L would be climatologically abnormal if it head west of north, which is a June pattern.

Look at the tracks of some famous November storms

Lenny
Michelle
Paloma
Quoting Weather456:


November tracks are typical east of north, so 97L would be climatologically abnormal if it head west of north, which is a June pattern.

Look at the tracks of some famous November storms

Lenny
Michelle
Paloma
thanks
1101. P451
1102. Grothar


Anyone think the GFDL is a little aggresive on their model? Or is is possible?
1103. amd
looks like a TD continues to form in the far SW Caribbean

Center location seems right considering that there is ENE winds out of San Andres, Columbia which is located NNW from the center of 97L

San Andres Current Conditions

I would like to see North or NNW winds out of Puerto Limon (which is wsw of the center of 97L) to be certain that there is a closed low at the surface. Right now winds are out of the west.
1104. unf97
Good morning to everyone on the WU blog. 97L indeed has become better organized overnight. Based on the satellite imagery alone, it certainly appears that 97L not only is a depression, but I wouldn't be surprised that the hurricane hunters find a tropical storm when they arrive for their mission later today.

One thing is for sure. Soon to be TD11/Ida will be a very slow mover in the SW to W Caribbean for days to come. Upwelling will be factor with this system as time progresses if the forward motion doesn't improve in the next couple of days. It is possible that this system could be confined in the Caribbean for at least the next 5 days or so due to the weak steering pattern. It will be interesting to watch the cyclone unfold and I am certain there will be many changes with the models regarding the track.

Have a great day everyone.
all indications are that we may have an upgrade at 11Am or for sure at 5PM
1106. Grothar


HWRF
1107. ackee
question for me with 97L is june or nov ? which track will it take guess know couple of days
It looks like convection is starting to wane a little bit and the convection is W and NW of the COC. Could this keep it from becoming a TD this morning?
1110. Grothar


I don't believe these are forecast surface winds. If anyone can explain these. I would appreciate it.
Looks like will have to wait for Recon


1112. WxLogic
Quoting Grothar:


I don't believe these are forecast surface winds. If anyone can explain these. I would appreciate it.


If you're referring to the extent of the "blue" then that will be related to the pressure gradient between 97L and the SFC High to its N/NE.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Looks like will have to wait for Recon


intresting nothing on quickscat other than some tropical storm force wind vectors and some 30-35 mph vectors ????
Morning All. No reason NOT to upgrade now. 97L is not going anywhere fast, what's the rush.

04/1145 UTC 10.9N 81.6W T2.0/2.0 97L -- Atlantic




1115. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Looks like will have to wait for Recon




That's surprising.
Maybe the proximity to land is affecting the QScat. The scat on the Rammb CSU site missed as well.

And the fact they said it could fail at any time.
1117. Grothar
Quoting WxLogic:


If you're referring to the extent of the "blue" then that will be related to the pressure gradient between 97L and the SFC High to its N/NE.


Now I understand your handle! Thanks for the explanation.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Morning All. No reason NOT to upgrade now. 97L is not going anywhere fast, what's the rush.

04/1145 UTC 10.9N 81.6W T2.0/2.0 97L -- Atlantic




Does it look like the convection is moving off to the NW? Away from the COC of 97L?
Quoting Grothar:


I don't believe these are forecast surface winds. If anyone can explain these. I would appreciate it.

Those are 900mb winds, or winds at about 5000 feet. Take 15-25% off that for a guesstimate of surface winds.
1120. Grothar
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
Morning All. No reason NOT to upgrade now. 97L is not going anywhere fast, what's the rush.

04/1145 UTC 10.9N 81.6W T2.0/2.0 97L -- Atlantic





Huh? Are you saying it should be upgraded, or that it shouldn't be?

Personally, I don't think it has the winds for an upgrade.
1122. Grothar
Quoting jeffs713:

Those are 900mb winds, or winds at about 5000 feet. Take 15-25% off that for a guesstimate of surface winds.


I think you may have told me that before. Couldn't remember what to deduct to estimate surface winds. Thanks for the reminder, that is why I asked the question, again!
Quoting Grothar:


I don't believe these are forecast surface winds. If anyone can explain these. I would appreciate it.


Those graphics are showing 900mb winds from the 00Z HWRF, somewhere around 80 knots. When you look at the model output for surface winds (10 meters) it is 48 knots, so quite a reduction from 900 mb to surface. Graph of mb to height.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Does it look like the convection is moving off to the NW? Away from the COC of 97L?


Maybe a little jostling or an expansion of the canopy. 97L is stationary so that is to be expected.
Quoting jeffs713:

Huh? Are you saying it should be upgraded, or that it shouldn't be?

Personally, I don't think it has the winds for an upgrade.

Why not? It does have the winds for an upgrade:
However, it will not be upgraded at 11 AM:
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972009) 20091104 1200 UTC

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 81.9W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 10.6N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 344DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 10.1N LONM24 = 81.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 130NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Current sustained winds are 30 kt (35 mph).
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


Maybe a little jostling or an expansion of the canopy. 97L is stationary so that is to be expected.
thank you
1127. MahFL
Red Red Red.....code Red !!!!!!!!!
1128. Grothar
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Those graphics are showing 900mb winds from the 00Z HWRF, somewhere around 80 knots. When you look at the model output for surface winds (10 meters) it is 48 knots, so quite a reduction from 900 mb to surface. Graph of mb to height.


Got the link, going to file it! Thanks.
Quoting jeffs713:

Huh? Are you saying it should be upgraded, or that it shouldn't be?

Personally, I don't think it has the winds for an upgrade.


You may be right. Upon further investigation, I think the AOI in the Pacific and the proximity to land are currently impeding on 97L's development. Pressures at nearby buoy's and ships are currently rising at a fairly good clip. 850 vort from Cimms in not all that impressive either. I thought 97L would be gelling this morning and a TS would be found by Recon. I doubt that now.
1130. amd
Easterly winds at 28mph about 70 miles away from the center of 97L (San Andres, Columbia) suggests that winds may be strong enough to allow for upgrade to TD (Assuming if a completely closed surface low forms in the next couple of hours).

IMO, I think 97L will be upgraded to a TD when Recon gets there. 1200 UTC info reveals that 97L has strengthened a little bit to 30 kt/35 mph. Also, SSD's Dvorak estimate is T2.0/2.0, which means (near-)depression status.
I feel like I am running blind this morning... new laptop running Win7.. looks pretty... but none of my regular software.. or links running. I am running around trying to setup links and google earth...

So... whats happening.. is 96 dead..and 97 looking like its going to build?
QuikSCAT winds are not the same as recon winds. Usually recon finds higher winds in disturbances. For example, disturbances in the Atlantic are usually tracked using dvorak and sea winds estimates only to find a stronger system when recon reaches.
If 97L(Ida) moves NW, wait till it gets to the NW/N Caribbean. The TCHP is kind of high.
SHIP S 1200 10.00 -83.00 205 9 270 3.9 - 1.6 2.0 - - 29.85 +0.05
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
SHIP S 1200 10.00 -83.00 205 9 270 3.9 - 1.6 2.0 - - 29.85 +0.05

What does that mean?
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
SHIP S 1200 10.00 -83.00 205 9 270 3.9 - 1.6 2.0 - - 29.85 +0.05


Winds are out of the west and very light so the circulation is closed. However, pressures are rising.
1138. beell
Seems the 00Z GFDL is starting to feel the building ridge and a subsequent bend to the west.

GFS developing a separate weak low or wave in the BOC while continuing on its westward leaning trend to the west for 97L.
Quoting Bobbyweather:

What does that mean?


That is a ship @ 10N 83W. The wind direction is 270, West (Closed Circulation). However winds are only 3.9 kts and pressures are 29.85 and have risen .05in in the past hour.
11/04/2009 01:54PM invest_RENUMBER_al972009_al112009.ren
So you could say the wind field is very small, but closed. There are no buoy's even close to the center so, one has a good argument for waiting until recon gets there.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
11/04/2009 01:54PM invest_RENUMBER_al972009_al112009.ren


we have TD 11

Tropical Depression 11

invest_RENUMBER_al972009_al112009.ren
Or not, lol.
2009 Storms
All Active Year


Atlantic
96L.INVEST
11L.ELEVEN

East Pacific
96E.INVEST

Central Pacific

West Pacific
98W.INVEST

Indian Ocean
92B.INVEST

Southern Hemisphere
99S.INVEST
Quoting Weather456:
Tropical Depression 11

invest_RENUMBER_al972009_al112009.ren
wil we have a special advisory package or a normal 11 Am advisory
invest_RENUMBER_al972009_al112009.ren

AL, 11, 2009110412, , BEST, 0, 115N, 819W, 30, 1006, TD

Yeah we got TD 11. It is official at 35 MPH.
97L looked liked a TD since we woke, I think not many here like reedzone, amd, etc would be surprised.
twc's dr steve lyons is working early said so far the winds near the system are around 20mph but the cold cloud top are a sign of very heavy rain. he expects it to take a very slow nw-n. movement he said a system like this could be very dangerous for flooding he also called the epac system the 'evil twin" and seems to be moving toward the coast
Quoting Seflhurricane:
wil we have a special advisory package or a normal 11 Am advisory


normal 11am since there is no need for a special advisory.

We should get the advisory within an hours time.
Welcome to the world TD11. Initial intensity 30 knots. Will likely be a storm by the time HH reach it later today. Something to watch for a while.
Quoting Weather456:
97L looked liked a TD since we woke, I think not many here like reedzone, amd, etc would be surprised.


What do you make of the rising pressures in the area?
1153. beell
Quoting Weather456:
97L looked liked a TD since we woke, I think not many here like reedzone, amd, etc would not be surprised.


I don't think anyone is surprised.
1154. P451




About as good as it gets without being a depression...probably is
That last burst of convection was the spark to the powder keg it seems.
Quoting beell:


I don't think anyone is surprised.


That's what I meant..corrected it.
Can anyone help me? Im heading to the Cayman's this weekend does anyone think the Cayman's will be impacted ?
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


What do you make of the rising pressures in the area?


10 am local time is a diurnal pressure max. It could be atmospheric tides at work.
Quoting jdcweatherky:
Can anyone help me? Im heading to the Cayman's this weekend does anyone think the Cayman's will be impacted ?
i would not go
No bend to the west in the 00Z or 06Z GDFL from what I see and the low in the BOC will help it to not bend much to the west
According to the ATCF, the center is right under the convection.
So, I guess the 11AM comes out at 10AM now (Eastern)...
Quoting leftovers:
i would not go
raincoat
What some people fail to understand there are different steering at work. Becuz there is high does not mean it will turn west. There is no rule of thumb that dictates that in the Western Caribbean. Maybe if we was taking about a cape Verde system here.

There is the deep layer flow which is in the opposite direction and IF Td 11 decides to explode over the warm waters of the WCARIB, deep layer flow will take over.

This high pressure is in the shallow and mid-levels and is only relative to a weak system.
Good Evening all,
I see we have a red spot special.

Quoting jdcweatherky:
Can anyone help me? Im heading to the Cayman's this weekend does anyone think the Cayman's will be impacted ?


rain but it is the same time frame as you heading to th Caymans. So it is wise to stay tune to the latest updates.
1169. pugcane
going to cancun today. Leaving Sunday. Any thoughts?
Quoting Weather456:
What some people fail to understand there are different steering at work. Becuz there is high does not mean it will turn west. There is no rule of thumb that dictates that in the Western Caribbean. Maybe if we was taking about a cape Verde system here.

There is the deep layer flow which is in the opposite direction and IF Td 11 decides to explode over the warm waters of the WCARIB, deep layer flow will take over.

This high pressure is in the shallow and mid-levels and is only relative to a weak system.


Great explanation again 456...There are those who keep moving the system west. It's not going to happen this time. If anything you can already see the convection building NNW and the outflow spreading north
I am anxious to see the NHC 5 day track.
Quoting Weather456:
I am anxious to the NHC 5 day track.
Does it look like TD11 is moving NNW?
Quoting stormsurge39:
Does it look like TD11 is moving NNW?


drifting
Quoting Weather456:
I am anxious to the NHC 5 day track.


Im curious to see their strength forecast too
Quoting stormsurge39:
Does it look like TD11 is moving NNW?


To me it does..or north.IMO
1176. beell
1161.
portcharlotte.

00Z @ 126
Longitude 81.5W



06Z @ 126
Longitude 83.8W (Corrected)
A very well organize system, I think third to Fred and Bill.

Quoting beell:
1161.
portcharlotte.

00Z @ 126
Longitude 81.5W



06Z @ 126
Longitude 84.8W


Okay I understand...In relation to yesterday yes it is more west...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
To me it looks like TD 11 is drifting north.


the only way describe Td 11 motion is quasi-stationary.
1181. 789
Quoting leftovers:
raincoat
lets be a little more serious read dr. m blog ,other than that (roflmao,raincoat)
Quoting Weather456:


the only way describe Td 11 motion is quasi-stationary.


However. 456, as you know convection increasing in a particular quadrant can foretell future movement of the center. I believe it would be safe to say that the general shape and size of the convection area has migrated and expanded to the north. Correct me if I am wrong and I may be...
1183. beell
Quoting Weather456:
What some people fail to understand there are different steering at work. Becuz there is high does not mean it will turn west. There is no rule of thumb that dictates that in the Western Caribbean. Maybe if we was taking about a cape Verde system here.

There is the deep layer flow which is in the opposite direction and IF Td 11 decides to explode over the warm waters of the WCARIB, deep layer flow will take over.

This high pressure is in the shallow and mid-levels and is only relative to a weak system.


True enough, W456-but that deep layer flow to the N may be on the wane.

200-700mb steering 12Z yesterday.


200-700mb steering 09Z today
Quoting Weather456:
A very well organize system, I think third to Fred and Bill.



456 why are all the models going against what is climatology correct for this time of year on 97Ls track?
Wow!!!

Two systems, modeled to head basically the same way, the new one faster than the older one.

Way interesting!!!
Quoting portcharlotte:


However. 456, as you know convection increasing in a particular quadrant can foretell future movement of the center. I believe it would be safe to say that the general shape and size of the convection area has migrated and expanded to the north. Correct me if I am wrong and I may be...


That is an excellent observation..and I agree. But the current motion is drifting, and a gradually pull towards the north as u pointed is the way to go.
Quoting beell:


True enough, W456-but that deep layer flow to the N may be on the wane.

200-700mb steering 12Z yesterday.


200-700mb steering 09Z today


Good point but

those 2 images are all past images. What is important to us is the steering flow 2mr.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Wow!!!

Two systems, modeled to head basically the same way, the new one faster than the older one.

Way interesting!!!
what other 1 besides 97L?
This is going to be very interesting.

There is also a big Pacific storm that is projected to dig down into the Baja area sometime early next week.

Three systems, and they each have their own agenda.
Quoting beell:


True enough, W456-but that deep layer flow to the N may be on the wane.

200-700mb steering 12Z yesterday.


200-700mb steering 09Z today


But you have more of a trough on the east coast along with westerlies compared to yesterday. These creatures look for weaknesses and there is more of that today at the higher levels than yesterday IMO
Quoting stormsurge39:
what other 1 besides 97L?


96L
Dr. Masters next blog is going to be very interesting.
1194. lawgrad
Headed to Playa del carmen Saturday-Tuesday. Should we cancel the trip?
Quoting lawgrad:
Headed to Playa del carmen Saturday-Tuesday. Should we cancel the trip?


The best thing I can tell u is to follow the NHC track guidance at 11am. They should point you in the right direction. We can only speculate where it will go at this time.
1196. beell
Quoting Weather456:


Good point but

those 2 images are all past images. What is important to us is the steering flow 2mr.


And I was speaking of the trend as a hint for tomorrow.

The trend may continue with shortwave ridging building over the SE US.

Course that allows TD 11 to stay beneath better upper level conditions!
Quoting Weather456:


The best thing I can tell u is to follow the NHC track guidance at 11am. They should point you in the right direction. We can only speculate where it will go at this time.


Wouldn't it be at 10 am because of the time change?
Here we go, not surprised and many others shouldn't be surprised that TD11 has formed, now recon will find Ida later today, watch ;)
Quoting caneswatch:


Wouldn't it be at 10 am because of the time change?


I do not live in the United States and my time zone is AST plus 1 EST. I am not affected by time changes except tv shows in the United States are watch 1 hr later down here.

It's 10:42 am here.
1200. beell
Quoting portcharlotte:


But you have more of a trough on the east coast along with westerlies compared to yesterday. These creatures look for weaknesses and there is more of that today at the higher levels than yesterday IMO


What trough is that?
1201. hydrus
Quoting Weather456:
A very well organize system, I think third to Fred and Bill.

Yeah, that is very comforting 456....jk.
Quoting reedzone:
Here we go, not surprised and many others shouldn't be surprised that TD11 has formed, now recon will find Ida later today, watch ;)
do you think it will go against a climotalogy track for this time of year?
Quoting CycloneOz:


96L


I think you mean 96E, the EPAC invest
Who will be in the CONE????
Wait, they didn't call this masterpiece a TD??? Navy still has 97L. (sigh)
Quoting stormsurge39:
do you think it will go against a climotalogy track for this time of year?


Probably so, we'll see.
Quoting portcharlotte:
Who will be in the CONE????


I can guess parts of CA and the Caymans.

The 5 day track maybe short since the system is slow moving.
Quoting reedzone:
Wait, they didn't call this masterpiece a TD??? Navy still has 97L. (sigh)


lol, its TD 11.
Quoting Weather456:


I do not live in the United States and my time zone is AST plus 1 EST. I am not affected by time changes except tv shows in the United States are watch 1 hr later down here.

It's 10:42 am here.


Gotcha. So it will be 11 for you then and 10 for us.
1210. pugcane
when is wind shear expected to pick back up in W carribean?
Its not a TD yet? Whats up?
Quoting caneswatch:


Gotcha. So it will be 11 for you then and 10 for us.


yep.
INTERESTING QUESTIONS OF THE DAY.

1. 96E crosses CA and enters BOC, without being named. Should it develop into a named storm, would it be given an Atlantic name or Pacific name?

2. 96E develops quickly and is named with a Pacific name, but then crosses CA into BOC. Would it keep the Pacific name or be given a new Atlantic name?
1214. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


Gotcha. So it will be 11 for you then and 10 for us.


Canes, what time zone are you in?
Quoting Weather456:


lol, its TD 11.


I was about to say.. I'm not trying to sound wishcasty, but with the outflow, anticyclone over it, convection right around and over the center, do you think this might go through a small phase of rapid intensification?
The "cone" might not even be a cone...it could just be a big circle, given the expected slow movement of the system.
Quoting Grothar:


Canes, what time zone are you in?


Eastern Time Zone.
Quoting leftovers:
i would not go
Quoting jdcweatherky:
Can anyone help me? Im heading to the Cayman's this weekend does anyone think the Cayman's will be impacted ?
Depends on how long you are staying here.TD11(?)may be a slow mover & not affect local weather until later or beyond the weekend.I can wu mail you if the local mets put up any alerts or watches leading up to the weekend.
1219. ackee
is it offical do we have TD#11 ?
As I watch 97 L - TD 11 or whatever, I am eerily reminded, in terms of system genesis and dates, of Hurricane Paloma - something I had hoped that I would not say again for a very long time, if ever!
In the meantime, nothing can be done except, watch, wait and plan for the worst case - I await the results of the forthcoming HH sortie with bated breath and, sincerely hope 97 L turns into an anti-climax.
Whatever happens to it, I am concerned at the forecast levels of rain for parts of Central America, knowing all too well the often tragic, concomitant results that can result.
I never notice this. I do not think it means much but something to note

1222. tacoman
this will be nothing more then a rainmaker for honduras nicaurauga and maybe down the road the yucatan..nothing to get overly concerned about yet..the depression is close to land and that will keep it from developing..so right now honduras and nic need to keep and eye on this for heavy rains and mudslides...i dont see this a threat to the lower 48 down the road...tacoman
Where in the he double-l is the advisory? Don't they usually issue it 15 minutes before hand?
Quoting reedzone:


I was about to say.. I'm not trying to sound wishcasty, but with the outflow, anticyclone over it, convection right around and over the center, do you think this might go through a small phase of rapid intensification?


It is a candidate, so it is possible. Small systems with circular cloud mass and surrounding bands of convection are good candidates. However it is missing deep warm waters.
Quoting caneswatch:
Where in the he double-l is the advisory? Don't they usually issue it 15 minutes before hand?


The NHC better not screw us, lol. They love to do that.
1226. lawgrad
Going to Playa del Carmen Sat-Tuesday. Will we be totally rained out by this thing? HELP me please decide if we should cancel!
Quoting CycloneOz:
Wow!!!

Two systems, modeled to head basically the same way, the new one faster than the older one.

Way interesting!!!


Holy Cow, CycloneOz sighting! A little late season excitement, huh? TD at 11am?
Looks great this morning...Just took a pan at the GFS steering flow and the only caveat i see is land interaction as a motion into the Yucatan seems pretty probable.A significant impact on the southeast still appears unlikely as upper level conditions should be quite hostile.

adrian
What about 96E crossing over into the BOC and going into the GOM? Is this the beginning of SEP or NOV as far as activity? LOL
tacoman,
have you updated your South Atlantic hurricane outlook yet? i'm still waiting for it.

thanks. i find your insight enlightening ;)


*snort*
If they screw us, that explains some of the other systems they missed. 97L looks like a TD/borderline TS. If they wait till recon, they will most likely find a 45-50 mph. Tropical Storm. I know they want to be sure, but look at the satellite figures, it's a TD.
When does recon go out today?
Forecast/Advisory for TD 11 issued
see NHC site
00
WTNT21 KNHC 041456
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2009

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.

AT 10 AM...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 82.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 82.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 81.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 11.9N 82.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 12.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.5N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 15.5N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 18.0N 85.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 82.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


707
WTNT31 KNHC 041456
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.
Quoting Weather456:


The NHC better not screw us, lol. They love to do that.


Yes they do. They also love being conservative on the winds. No way those winds were at 175 mph (bumped to 185) when Wilma peaked. Had to be 200 mph.
000
WTNT31 KNHC 041456
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.

AT 10 AM...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.0 WEST OR ABOUT
65 MILES...105 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN ANDRES ISLAND AND ABOUT
125 MILES...200 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BLUEFIELDS NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF
NICARAGUA THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY OR TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 5 TO 7 INCHES OVER SAN ANDRES ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12
INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED OVER EASTERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS WITH MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD AND MUD SLIDES.

...SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...11.6N 82.0W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 100 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 400
PM EST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
TD 11

NHC expecting it to go inland.
Don;t forget this map....
Quoting hurricanejunky:


Holy Cow, CycloneOz sighting! A little late season excitement, huh? TD at 11am?


Both of these systems will be classic, late season hookers into the FL peninsula, imo.

Interesting to see if they develop or not.

I'm prepared to leave for SF at a moments notice.
Quoting Weather456:
00
WTNT21 KNHC 041456
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2009

AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF SAN ANDRES AND
PROVIDENCIA.

AT 10 AM...THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 82.0W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 82.0W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 81.9W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 11.9N 82.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 35NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 12.5N 83.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 13.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 13.5N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 14.5N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 15.5N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 18.0N 85.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 82.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN




It starts...
Tropical Depression ELEVEN RSS Feed icon Storm Archive
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
Quoting CycloneOz:
INTERESTING QUESTIONS OF THE DAY.

1. 96E crosses CA and enters BOC, without being named. Should it develop into a named storm, would it be given an Atlantic name or Pacific name?

2. 96E develops quickly and is named with a Pacific name, but then crosses CA into BOC. Would it keep the Pacific name or be given a new Atlantic name?


can someone answer Cycloneoz before Masters does his update? Thanks!
THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS
Quoting reedzone:
If they screw us, that explains some of the other systems they missed. 97L looks like a TD/borderline TS. If they wait till recon, they will most likely find a 45-50 mph. Tropical Storm. I know they want to be sure, but look at the satellite figures, it's a TD.


Yeah, it's pretty impressive right now. I don't know how they don't classify it a TD at 11am. Any thoughts on track and shear forecast?
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO NOW BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A NEW
BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING
FEATURES BECOMING MORE DISTINGUISHED. TAFB/SAB DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0...30 KT...AT 1200 UTC...AND THAT INTENSITY
WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING...HOWEVER...IF THIS SYSTEM WERE ALREADY A TROPICAL STORM
DUE TO THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION.
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/7...THOUGH IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS IS TRULY REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE CENTER
REFORMATION THAT APPEARED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE ON
THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET...SHOW THE
SYSTEM MOVING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH ONLY A NORTHWARD DRIFT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER
ENVIRONMENT...ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND AND UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST
LEADS TO A COMPLEX INTENSITY FORECAST. THE GFDL...ONE OF THE ONLY
MODELS THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE...MAKES THE SYSTEM A
HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE LGEM
MODELS SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AT ALL. THESE MODELS SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 11.6N 82.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 11.9N 82.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 12.5N 83.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 13.0N 83.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 13.5N 84.0W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1200Z 14.5N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/1200Z 15.5N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 85.5W 35 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
Quoting portcharlotte:
Don;t forget this map....


That map scares me (I live in South Florida).
1249. hydrus
< It gets an Atlantic name.
Quoting lawgrad:
Going to Playa del Carmen Sat-Tuesday. Will we be totally rained out by this thing? HELP me please decide if we should cancel!
between the td and invest moving towards el salvador it will be pretty rainy in that part of the world
Quoting CycloneOz:
INTERESTING QUESTIONS OF THE DAY.

1. 96E crosses CA and enters BOC, without being named. Should it develop into a named storm, would it be given an Atlantic name or Pacific name?

2. 96E develops quickly and is named with a Pacific name, but then crosses CA into BOC. Would it keep the Pacific name or be given a new Atlantic name?


I thought they always named it based on current location, meaning it gets the Atlantic name regardless of any past naming or locations. Is this correct? Anyone?
ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER
ENVIRONMENT...ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND AND UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST
LEADS TO A COMPLEX INTENSITY FORECAST. THE GFDL...ONE OF THE ONLY
MODELS THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE...MAKES THE SYSTEM A
HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE LGEM
MODELS SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AT ALL. THESE MODELS SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL.
Quoting Grothar:


Canes, what time zone are you in?


Grothar, interested in coming back if TD 11 comes here?
000
WTNT41 KNHC 041457
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST WED NOV 04 2009

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS
DEVELOPED ENOUGH ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO NOW BE
CONSIDERED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT A NEW
BURST OF THUNDERSTORMS IS OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER WITH BANDING
FEATURES BECOMING MORE DISTINGUISHED. TAFB/SAB DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0...30 KT...AT 1200 UTC...AND THAT INTENSITY
WILL BE USED AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED. IT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISING...HOWEVER...IF THIS SYSTEM WERE ALREADY A TROPICAL STORM
DUE TO THE IMPROVING SATELLITE PRESENTATION. THE AIR FORCE RESERVE
WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON TO GIVE A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE
WINDS.

THE INITIAL MOTION USED FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 315/7...THOUGH IT IS
UNCERTAIN WHETHER THIS IS TRULY REPRESENTATIVE DUE TO THE CENTER
REFORMATION THAT APPEARED TO OCCUR OVERNIGHT. STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS THE
DEPRESSION IS CAUGHT BETWEEN A WEAK MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LARGE-SCALE
PATTERN...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A LARGE AMOUNT OF DIVERGENCE ON
THE EXPECTED PATH OF THE DEPRESSION. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN RIDGE. HOWEVER...SOME OF
THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE...SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND UKMET...SHOW THE
SYSTEM MOVING CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH ONLY A NORTHWARD DRIFT.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR BUT SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM WATER
ENVIRONMENT...ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND AND UNCERTAIN TRACK FORECAST
LEADS TO A COMPLEX INTENSITY FORECAST. THE GFDL...ONE OF THE ONLY
MODELS THAT KEEPS THE SYSTEM OFFSHORE...MAKES THE SYSTEM A
HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...NEITHER THE SHIPS NOR THE LGEM
MODELS SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AT ALL. THESE MODELS SEEM TO BE A
LITTLE UNDERDONE...AND THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...THOUGH NOT AS HIGH AS THE GFDL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 04/1500Z 11.6N 82.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 05/0000Z 11.9N 82.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 05/1200Z 12.5N 83.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 06/0000Z 13.0N 83.5W 50 KT
48HR VT 06/1200Z 13.5N 84.0W 35 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 07/1200Z 14.5N 84.5W 25 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 08/1200Z 15.5N 85.0W 25 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 09/1200Z 18.0N 85.5W 35 KT...OVER WATER

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN


1255. WxLogic
Shear to the north should increase...Hopefully some rain for the southeast.

NHC expecting TD11 (Ida) to emerge back into a Tropical Storm after crossing land, heck it may not even cross land, look at the cone..
That track is worst case scenario

Quoting WxLogic:




...and there it is...

I am filled with awe at this track. Very interesting!
Quoting CycloneOz:


Both of these systems will be classic, late season hookers into the FL peninsula, imo.

Interesting to see if they develop or not.

I'm prepared to leave for SF at a moments notice.


I'm a little late, they already classified it. We'll keep an eye on it. Ready to intercept if necessary.

Hopefully we can get some good rains out of it. Haven't had a chance to look at latest model runs. Are the models still trending eastward?
1261. WxLogic
Quoting reedzone:
NHC expecting TD11 (Ida) to emerge back into a Tropical Storm after crossing land, heck it may not even cross land, look at the cone..


It is possible as long as it either drifts more N than W and/or the COC reforms.
NHC says there's a chance that TD11 may already be a Tropical Storm due to the recent burst of convection near the center.
Quoting WxLogic:


If that map holds true, it's entering the extremely warm waters of the Western Caribbean after it's done on land.
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I thought they always named it based on current location, meaning it gets the Atlantic name regardless of any past naming or locations. Is this correct? Anyone?


The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain the
name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e.,
advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g.
Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of
responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC
will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in
parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated RSMC
Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.
Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is
assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in
a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.


National Hurricane Operations Plan
Quoting reedzone:
NHC says there's a chance that TD11 may already be a Tropical Storm due to the recent burst of convection near the center.


This is an eye opener

Season ends 30 November.
Quoting Weather456:
That track is worst case scenario

Are we looking at due N after 120 hours, or to soon to tell?
Quoting hurricanejunky:


I'm a little late, they already classified it. We'll keep an eye on it. Ready to intercept if necessary.

Hopefully we can get some good rains out of it. Haven't had a chance to look at latest model runs. Are the models still trending eastward?


Stand by...very interesting end-o-week ahead.
1269. WxLogic
Quoting hurricane23:
Shear to the north should increase...Hopefully some rain for the southeast.



I sure hope it helps increase moisture content in the SE to kick off some decent showers because it has been way too dry over here and we're now under water restrictions that started Nov. 1.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Are we looking at due N after 120 hours, or to soon to tell?


From the looks of it, yea.

Notice the storm stops going NW and turns towards the N at the end of the forecast track.
Quoting CycloneOz:




...and there it is...

I am filled with awe at this
track. Very interesting!


Interesting...we'll have to see how it plays out. I guess that answers my previous question about how the models are trending...we welcome the moisture BIGTIME!!! Send on the rain!
Lol 12z NAM goes crazy...Could verify if it manages to avoid land.

96E may wind up having alot influence on what happens to TD 11 this weekend.

Yeah, there's plenty of shear where both of these systems are modeled to track, but if 96E gets into the BOC / Gulf ahead of TD 11, all bets on the influence of shear patterns would be off.
456 What if 96E crosses over? what kind of interaction could it have with 97L?
1275. hydrus
Quoting Weather456:


This is an eye opener

Season ends 30 November.
Sometimes it does not end on November 30. Officially yes-Realistically no. You already knew that.
Quoting WxLogic:


I sure hope it helps increase moisture content in the SE to kick off some decent showers because it has been way too dry over here and we're now under water restrictions that started Nov.

1.


Same here..the drought is really bad...more serious than the storm right now
1277. tacoman
reed take a deep breath man ...this will be nothing more then a rainmaker 456 said it best it will hug the land and it will keep this thing in check...so reed try to get some sleep big guy...tacoman
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The following rules apply for tropical cyclones passing from one basin to another: Retain the
name if a tropical cyclone passes from one basin into another basin as a tropical cyclone; i.e.,
advisories are continuous. An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g.
Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of
responsibility. For unnamed tropical depressions moving from west to east across 180°, CPHC
will use the associated Joint Typhoon Warning Center’s (JTWC) number and indicate JTWC in
parentheses following the number. For named systems, CPHC will use the associated RSMC
Tokyo name and provide the associated JTWC number in parentheses.
Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is
assigned its original number or name. If the remnants of a former tropical cyclone regenerate in
a new basin, the regenerated tropical cyclone will be given a new designation.


National Hurricane Operations Plan


Very interesting. Thanks for the detailed info.
Lets not forget guys that there is an established Anticyclone over TD11 (Ida), if it keeps up with it, shear will never be a problem. Currently, land is the only problem for the storm.
dr steve lyons just said the potential energy is there for a major hurricane in the nw carib
1281. WxLogic
Quoting hurricane23:
Lol 12z NAM goes crazy...Could verify if it manages to avoid land.



No doubt... hope the other models don't trend to something like that on their 12Z runs and expecting it to miss land.
Quoting hurricane23:
Lol 12z NAM goes crazy...Could verify if it manages to avoid land.



Don't really know what I'm looking at...can't read the pressure in the center? What does it say?
Quoting tacoman:
reed take a deep breath man ...this will be nothing more then a rainmaker 456 said it best it will hug the land and it will keep this thing in check...so reed try to get some sleep big guy...tacoman
Hey Tacoman that is a bold statement about just being a rainmaker! I hope your right for everyone who is in the path! Me personally i think everyone in the area should keep their guard up until its becomes just a "rainmaker"!
Now who was saying the season was over?? :P
Got some crow for them..
wow, according the NHC graphic they are expecting TD11 to be a slow mover, not good!!!
Quoting stormsurge39:
Hey Tacoman that is a bold statement about just being a rainmaker! I hope your right for everyone who is in the path! Me personally i think everyone in the area should keep their guard up until its becomes just a "rainmaker"!


Don't listen to him, he was wrong way too many times this year.. "Oh Tacoman, you still have crow left over from weeks ago"..
Going to find my helmet!
1250. leftovers 3:01 PM GMT on November 04, 2009
Quoting lawgrad:
Going to Playa del Carmen Sat-Tuesday. Will we be totally rained out by this thing? HELP me please decide if we should cancel!

between the td and invest moving towards el salvador it will be pretty rainy in that part of the world

I've checked 3 websites and all say Scattered Thunderstorms and/or cloudy.

Intellicast has nice interactive tools and overlays but I'm not yet adept at using them.

Good morning, all. I just got on a little while ago, and I'm trying not to butt in -- but can someone tell me if I actually saw the NHC circle on 97L go from red to orange? And if so, why?
New Blog
Are ya'll going to let us keep the new blog all to ourselves? :)
1291. hydrus
Quoting reedzone:
Now who was saying the season was over?? :P
Got some crow for them..
Maybe its tacrowman...
Quoting CycloneOz:
Are ya'll going to let us keep the new blog

That would be a negative, Captain. I'm just getting fresh coffee before I read. :-)

Nobody will see this...just goofing around.



QuikScat still does not verify a surface low has developed....wonder if its working correctly!
1293. Tampa, please re-post and ask question on new blog...I'm only one left here.

Got coffee now, see ya' over there!
I'll take a weak T.S. or Depression over South Florida to hopefully usher in cooler weather after... It's been way too dry and record heat the past 3 weeks......
1296. DrNo
Quoting reedzone:


Don't listen to him, he was wrong way too many times this year.. "Oh Tacoman, you still have crow left over from weeks ago"..


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Wow! Starting to look impressive from microwave. Bet recon finds Ida when they arrive. Maybe 55mph already??? Any thoughts?
Recon inbound.