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Western Caribbean disturbance 96L growing more organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:14 PM GMT on October 21, 2011

A region of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean (Invest 96L) is bringing heavy rains to coastal Nicaragua, and has the potential to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. Visible satellite loops show that 96L is beginning to show signs of organization. Some rotation is apparent, and the upper-level cirrus clouds streaming away from the center indicate that 96L is establishing an upper-level outflow channel to the east. The heavy thunderstorm activity is quite limited at present, because a large region of dry air to the east of 96L is interfering with development, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. An ASCAT pass at 11:05 am EDT showed no signs of a surface circulation, with surface winds in the 25 - 30 mph range. Surface pressures are slowly falling at San Andres Island, near the center of 96L. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots in the region, and is expected remain in the moderate range through Monday. Water temperatures are very warm, 29 - 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth.


Figure 1. Afternoon satellite image of 96L.

Forecast for 96L
The moderate wind shear and warm waters should allow some modest development of 96L over the next few days, though this will be slowed by the dry air to the storm's east. The models are quite enthusiastic about developing 96L into a tropical depression, and our top four reliable models for forecasting genesis--the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and NOGAPS--have all been predicting formation of a tropical depression by Monday in one or more of their runs over the past day. 96L is in an area of weak steering currents, and will move little over the next three days. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a strong trough of low pressure will be passing over the Eastern U.S., and this trough has the potential to turn 96L northwards into Cuba. This is more likely to happen if 96L is stronger and deeper, and thus able to "feel" the upper-level winds the trough will bring. The 12Z run of the GFS model and 00Z runs of the ECMWF and UKMET models predict 96L will develop into a tropical storm that hits Western Cuba on Wednesday or Thursday, and potentially affecting the Cayman Islands, South Florida, and the Bahamas as well. If 96L remains a weak and shallow system, it is more likely to stay trapped in the Western Caribbean and make landfall in Nicaragua. This is the solution of the NOGAPS model, which has 96L moving ashore on Tuesday over Nicaragua as a weak system. NHC gave 96L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday in their 8 am Tropical Weather Outlook. A hurricane hunter mission is scheduled to investigate 96L Saturday afternoon.

I'll have a new post on Saturday, but might wait until the afternoon, when the hurricane hunter data becomes available.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Dueling spins in 97L?
502. D6X
Looks like that strong ULL north of PR is starting to slowly move north now. It has been responsible for strong northerly upper level winds on the east side of 96L, and tearing up 97L. It looks to me like things will begin to improve for 96L now in terms of organization, while 97L will still be under the ULLs influence.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA NEAR SAN ANDRES ISLAND...CONTINUES TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE
IN THE ORGANIZATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE... 20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
CLOUDINESS AND HEAVY RAINS COULD SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

Why are you highlighting sections? You excited? I'm sure people can read it normal
If the NHC wanted people to read their messages, they wouldn't post 'em in ALL-CAPs.
506. MahFL
Hi all, working an extra half shift tonight, I saw 1 meteor earlier, but am warming up as it's 46 F out.
Quoting MahFL:
Hi all, working an extra half shift tonight, I saw 1 meteor earlier, but am warming up as it's 46 F out.
Good morning, 54 here at 5am, no wind to speak of, going up to 74 this afternoon, nice day ahead at last
Good morn it dark but you can still see cloud still hanging around
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Good morn it dark but you can still see cloud still hanging around
Good morning. Strong breeze, rain off and on and lots of lightning and thunder up here.
Good morning island people. You are up way to early for a Saturday morning, but then, nothing like a sunrise over the water to start the day right. I'm mad cause I started to work and forgot my coffee!!! Grr. Late yesterday our resident grump was complaining that we all get excited when a storm cranks up. After I logged off I laughed because of course we get excited when a storm cranks up. This is a tropical weather blog and we are tropical weather junkies so that's what we do.......I'd say it beats being crabby and picking on us weather nuts for being who we are. Wonder why the guy even logs on here. Just saying.
Good morning to all.

Ok,now what in terms of the models and 96L? The 00z Euro almost doesn't show it and 06Z GFS drops it.
Quoting TropicTraveler:
Good morning island people. You are up way to early for a Saturday morning, but then, nothing like a sunrise over the water to start the day right. I'm mad cause I started to work and forgot my coffee!!! Grr. Late yesterday our resident grump was complaining that we all get excited when a storm cranks up. After I logged off I laughed because of course we get excited when a storm cranks up. This is a tropical weather blog and we are tropical weather junkies so that's what we do.......I'd say it beats being crabby and picking on us weather nuts for being who we are. Wonder why the guy even logs on here. Just saying.
Good morning. I am normally an early riser and I think we definitely need to watch 96L in the Cayman Islands. The blog has gone to the dogs over the past few weeks but I just ignore the trolls. It serves no purpose arguing with them since that is their whole purpose for coming on here.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all.

Ok,now what? The 00z Euro almost doesn't show it and 06Z GFS drops it.
Most likely because it hasn't developed as quickly as they originally thought it would. I put a lot of stock in kmanislander and when he says we most likely will get development from this I think we will. He has never that I can remember been wrong and definitely does not hype any system.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Strong breeze, rain off and on and lots of lightning and thunder up here.
You always see people in Cayman up very early in times such as these...LOL Good Morning!!
Good Morning.
Pretty dawn this morning, which surprised me. I was expecting cloudy sky and the chance of rain from 97L.
Looks like everything might move North of us.
Still expect to get some showers, but not as much as it looked like, last night.
Quoting superpete:
You always see people in Cayman up very early in times such as these...LOL Good Morning!!
Good morning. Is it windy down there ?
I guess us people here in Cayman are early birds
51°F around Carrollwood, Tampa this morning !!!
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Pretty dawn this morning, which surprised me. I was expecting cloudy sky and the chance of rain from 97L.
Looks like everything might move North of us.
Still expect to get some showers, but not as much as it looked like, last night.
Good morning Pottery. 97L looks to have consolidated pretty good over night but is a very small area. NHC latest surface map does not show a low there any longer though so I don't know what is going on with it.
Quoting pottery:
Good Morning.
Pretty dawn this morning, which surprised me. I was expecting cloudy sky and the chance of rain from 97L.
Looks like everything might move North of us.
Still expect to get some showers, but not as much as it looked like, last night.


Good morning pottery.

That big upper level low to the north caused the weakening of 97L to the point that there is almost anything left. Yesterday morning,it looked very omminous down there with those black areas,but the tropics change constantly and here we are.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning Pottery. 97L looks to have consolidated pretty good over night but is a very small area. NHC latest surface map does not show a low there any longer though so I don't know what is going on with it.

Yeah, it seems less of a rain-threat now.
Winds here were West and NW yesterday afternoon, which was interesting.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Is it windy down there ?
Hi- A bit gusty here on North Sound, but seems to have dropped from last night somewhat. Looks like we might get a bit of a break from the rain for a short while anyway. I see the 00 Nogaps puts 96L into Honduras/ Belize next week, but develops what appears to be influence from 97L over us & Jam' after mid-week
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Good morning pottery.

That big upper level low to the north caused the weakening of 97L to the point that there is almost anything left. Yesterday morning,it looked very omminous down there with those black areas,but the tropics change constantly and here we are.

True!
I was anticipating a rained-out weekend.
Not looking that way, right now.
Miami NWS Discussion

LATE IN THE PERIOD... IT JUST WOULDN`T BE RIGHT IF MY LAST SHIFT
AT WFO MIAMI/SOUTH FLORIDA DIDN`T HAVE A POTENTIAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE LURKING IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS DEPICTS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE SPINNING UP FROM WHAT IS NOW THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF
PANAMA AND SLOWLY LIFTING NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH A STRONG COLD
FRONT AS IT PASSES NEAR THE AREA. THE 0Z ECMWF NOW KEEPS THE TC IN
THE CARIBBEAN AND POSSIBLY INTERACTING OR BEING ABSORBED BY
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE EAST. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT
THERE MAY BE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE WEST CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF
THE TC.
BNT20 KNHC 221131
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR SAN
ANDRES ISLAND HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE CONTINUED TO FALL IN THE
AREA...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING
SINCE YESTERDAY...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
cant help wonder if dry air in the GOM will be a problem
they lowered it to 60
Ummm,they dropped the % for 96L. Maybe the models are seeing unfavorable conditions ahead and that is why GFS and Euro drop it.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Ummm,they dropped the % for 96L. Maybe the models are seeing unfavorable conditions ahead and that is why GFS and Euro drop it.


Yep:

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE BIT LESS
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Ummm,they dropped the % for 96L. Maybe the models are seeing unfavorable conditions ahead and that is why GFS and Euro drop it.


GFS and EURO dropped it because it runs into land.

I figured they would drop the odds, 96L lost model support overnight.
Key West NWS Discussion

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CLOUDS THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THIS
FORECAST...AS MODEL INCONSISTENCY REGARDING THE DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
PERSISTS. THERE APPEARS TO BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STEERING FLOW OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK...AND THE PROXIMITY OF THE ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST WILL LIKELY DICTATE HOW MUCH
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS. A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL UNITED STATES MAY SHARPEN ENOUGH TO PULL THIS SYSTEM
NORTHWARD BY LATE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS FLIP-FLOPPED
FROM ITS PRIOR SOLUTION ON ITS 00Z RUN AND NO LONGER SHOWS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE EMERGING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
what r the cords for its llc any1 know?
39 here in Florida.
Quoting chrisdscane:
what r the cords for its llc any1 know?
This is the latest but should be updated in about an hour so not sure now.


127N-807W.


22/0545 UTC 12.7N 81.0W T1.5/1.5 96L -- Atlantic
96l not looking veary healthy may we have dodged a bullet?
soon they will rase 96L up to about 80/90% by 12 then possible TD/TS by 5pm or 8 today convection is now starting to blow up and pop and 96L has that ULAC almost on top so give it some time to get just right
Good Morning, 96L still has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone, actually I think the surface low is much better defined than yesterday, I suspect when the HHs fly into it this PM , we'll have a TD or maybe even a TS.
Hi all...please raise the South Florida shields as I am heading to Key West monday for a week....I deserve beautiful weather lol... Thanks for any input
hey stormpetrol u know that those are old scats from very early this morn
545. wpb
6z gfs no tc from 96l
IMO it has also started a Northward drift, maybe even a little bit east of due North.
Quoting stormpetrol:
IMO it has also started a Northward drift, maybe even a little bit east of due North.

well that was expected 96L was to have a NE run before his NNW walk


Pressures are significantly lower across the region than yesterday, and 96L is about 1006.3mb according to this!
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey stormpetrol u know that those are old scats from very early this morn


Yep I know, man I can't believe how hung up on models some people are! 96L is already a TD IMO.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 211430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT FRI 21 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 22/1100Z TO 23/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-143

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 70--
A. 22/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 22/1530Z
D. 13.5N 80.0W
E. 22/1930Z TO 22/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX SYSTEM AT 23/1800Z
NEAR 14.5N 80.5W.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Hopefully its still a go for the HHs
Quoting CybrTeddy:


GFS and EURO dropped it because it runs into land.

I figured they would drop the odds, 96L lost model support overnight.


And that track is a big change from the one they had going thru in past runs. The question is,why the change of track?


Morning all...

well shear has increased a bit. 6z gfs and euro drop it. i dont pay attention to that. if 96L starts geting convection around its center its a td
Here in Nassau we are still dismal [overcast] with winds from the N to NNW at about 10 mph... a relatively wintry day, in fact.

I agree with Kman that 96L is going to be a slow developer... he was putting formation chances sometime between this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. It'll be interesting to see how far north this whole mess drifts before we get anything more consolidated.

Quoting wunderweatherman123:
well shear has increased a bit. 6z gfs and euro drop it. i dont pay attention to that. if 96L starts geting convection around its center its a td
They didn't drop it, they just show a weaker system, and aren't bullish with intensification. Anything past 3 days should be taken with a grain of salt where track and intensification apply.
Quoting BahaHurican:


Morning all...



That is a big mess right now.I really dont think recon will fly this afternoon. I also want to see what our friend Kman thinks today about 96L.
Quoting BahaHurican:


Morning all...

Eck! What is THAT?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


That is a big mess right now.I really dont think recon will fly this afternoon. I also want to see what our friend Kman thinks today about 96L.
Why should they change their plans just off of satellite presentation, they didn't do that for 95L, and I see know reason why they should cancel here.
Quoting stormpetrol:


Pressures are significantly lower across the region than yesterday, and 96L is about 1006.3mb according to this!
That's where the surface low should form, convergence and divergence seem good in that area, anticyclone almost right over it, and vorticity is increasing.

Quoting BahaHurican:
Here in Nassau we are still dismal [overcast] with winds from the N to NNW at about 10 mph... a relatively wintry day, in fact.

I agree with Kman that 96L is going to be a slow developer... he was putting formation chances sometime between this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. It'll be interesting to see how far north this whole mess drifts before we get anything more consolidated.

NHC surface map shows it drifting NE so I am guessing once it pulls a little further from land it has a better shot at developing.
could this be rina "the lil sister" of wilma
Link

Good discussion from Crown Weather this morning and a look at model predictions. Most, if not all do not develop this until at least Sunday.
No change in pressure or windspeed; moved WNW since the last update:

AL, 96, 2011102212, , BEST, 0, 128N, 817W, 25, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
Quoting GTcooliebai:
They didn't drop it, they just show a weaker system, and aren't bullish with intensification. Anything past 3 days should be taken with a grain of salt where track and intensification apply.
I have to agree with that, so far its just a blob close to land, something to watch thats all
So whats with the talk of 96l being Wilma like? I think at best it will become a strong cat1, then again iv not put much time into checking the condition the storm will be under in the future, but thats just my guess.
96L should start to move NNE if that movement haven't started already
AL, 97, 2011102212, , BEST, 0, 98N, 558W, 20, 1007, LO

So my non-weather experienced family member said " I guess the season's over" Gasp - dare this be said. My other family member proceeded to tell them that they now jinxed us and have steered one of these new systems our way.
Quoting chrisdscane:
what r the cords for its llc any1 know?
I just love what texting has done...
Good morning

I see that the NHC have come back down to 60%. That is probably where they should have left this at when they opted to go to 70% late yesterday.

One persistent feature of this low is that the convection has always been on the West side of the low strung out linearly from N to S. This may account in part for the drift closer to the coast as the low tries to follow the deepest convection.

Continued meandering is to be expected over the next 24 hours IMO.
Very weak steering currents still prevailing

Good Morning.
96L looks the same as yesterday. But with an ever-so-slightly better defined center.
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

I see that the NHC have come back down to 60%. That is probably where they should have left this at when they opted to go to 70% late yesterday.

One persistent feature of this low is that the convection has always been on the West side of the low strung out linearly from N to S. This may account in part for the drift closer to the coast as the low tries to follow the deepest convection.

Continued meandering is to be expected over the next 24 hours IMO.
I am not sure but to my untrained eye I see the spin just to the NE of the co-ordinates they are giving when I look at the shortwave loop.
Have a wonderful day blogging.
Latest observations from San Andres island shows the low NW from there.

METAR text: SKSP 221300Z 24015KT 9999 SCT015 BKN080 25/23 A2975 REDZ
Conditions at: SKSP (SAN ANDRES ISLAN, CO) observed 1300 UTC 22 October 2011
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C (73°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.75 inches Hg (1007.5 mb)
Winds: from the WSW (240 degrees) at 17 MPH (15 knots; 7.8 m/s)
Visibility: 6 or more miles (10+ km)
Ceiling: 8000 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 1500 feet AGL
broken clouds at 8000 feet AGL
Weather: no significant weather observed at this time


I have the center of 96L at around 12.5N/81.7W
Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning

I see that the NHC have come back down to 60%. That is probably where they should have left this at when they opted to go to 70% late yesterday.

One persistent feature of this low is that the convection has always been on the West side of the low strung out linearly from N to S. This may account in part for the drift closer to the coast as the low tries to follow the deepest convection.

Continued meandering is to be expected over the next 24 hours IMO.
Morning kman does it look like we may have a TD later tonight or tomorrow
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I am not sure but to my untrained eye I see the spin just to the NE of the co-ordinates they are giving when I look at the shortwave loop.


I see the low about mid way between the 80 W line and the coast. I have centered that with the image below.

Have to run out for a bit

Paloma developed at 81.7W and 13.7N from a broad area of low pressure. I would not underestimate the possibility of 96L developing just yet. For a few days before she developed she had intermittent convection.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Paloma developed at 81.7W and 13.7N from a broad area of low pressure. I would not underestimate the possibility of 96L developing just yet. For a few days before she developed she had intermittent convection.


I think We could very be dealing with a Paloma like scenario and just as strong, only I think 96L will be more of threat to us here in Grand Cayman, rather than the sister islands,having said that all saved us from a direct hit from Paloma was a last minute wobble to the East, I remember Kman & I were the first to remark about it on this blog.
Quoting stormpetrol:


I think We could very be dealing with a Paloma like scenario and just as strong, only I think 96L will be more of threat to us here in Grand Cayman, rather than the sister islands,having said that all saved us from a direct hit from Paloma was a last minute wobble to the East, I remember Kman & I were the first to remark about it on this blog.
I was very thankful for that eastward jog or we were going to get a direct hit in East End. After all the damage we had up here from Ivan we sure didn't need that.
Invest 96L is looking good...I think the NHC will find the invest very close to, or, a, tropical depression.

I see the GFS now moves 96L into Central America. Yesterday the GFS had 96L crossing Cuba. Big Change over night.
Quoting hunkerdown:
I just love what texting has done...


Ain't that the truth. At this rate, it will be harder to interpert than raw METAR data. :)
I think if it even develops..it won't be until Monday. It's looking less organized and could easily follow the convection inland and die.
Goodmorning, Looks like the models have a back off quite a bit with intensity of 96L. I wonder why?
Is the lack of vertical inestibility do harm to the development of 96L?

Quoting robert88:
I think if it even develops..it won't be until Monday. It's looking less organized and could easily follow the convection inland and die.

We'll have to see what recon finds.
What time will the hurricane hunters be to the system?


Vorticity further south , more spread out and not as close to land
TCs are so fickeled. Got to love it!
Looking at all the info 96l will not be a TD today circulation is still broad and convection is lacking on the east side among many things
Quoting shawn26:
What time will the hurricane hunters be to the system?

There isn't any...

3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/2000Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 22/1205Z.
Im sure you have heard the phrase....a watched pot never boils. Lol
No Recon today...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT SAT 22 OCTOBER 2011
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z OCTOBER 2011
TCPOD NUMBER.....11-144

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 23/1900Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 23/1500Z
D. 14.6N 82.5W
E. 23/1830Z TO 23/2230Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT
24/1800Z NEAR 16.5N 84.0W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARK: LOW-LEVEL INVEST FOR 22/2000Z CANCELED BY
NHC AT 22/1205Z.
Almost posted at same time the recon info.
NHC making a big mistake canceling recon, but it is what it is.. Just like when they made the mistake of not naming 93L which was clearly a Subtropical Storm that made landfall in Cape Canaveral, FL. Off to work, not surprised by the actions of the NHC lately, not surprised at all.
Quoting scott39:
Goodmorning, Looks like the models have a back off quite a bit with intensity of 96L. I wonder why?


Because they are now taking it inland across Nicaragua
96L yesterday afternoon:



Now:

Quoting kmanislander:


Because they are now taking it inland across Nicaragua

What's your opinion?
Quoting reedzone:
NHC making a big mistake canceling recon, but it is what it is.. Just like when they made the mistake of not naming 93L which was clearly a Subtropical Storm that made landfall in Cape Canaveral, FL. Off to work, not surprised by the actions of the NHC lately, not surprised at all.


Your kidding right? lol
Another reason why it may continue to struggle...

Quoting kmanislander:


Because they are now taking it inland across Nicaragua


Kman,why the sudden change by the models sending it to CA? You think the lack of vertical inestability may play a roll?
Quoting kmanislander:


Because they are now taking it inland across Nicaragua
Thanks,When an invest has not developed, is it best to go with real time than Model support? To me they seem to swing quite a bit in a short amount of time, coming out of the Caribbean this season.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What's your opinion?


Don't trust the models before we have a closed low. I still see this meandering around until probably tomorrow and then a drift to the N or NNW. I put up the current steering back at post 571 I believe. 96L is not going anywhere any time soon.
610. SLU
Quoting scott39:
Thanks,When an invest has not developed, is it best to go with real time than Model support? To me they seem to swing quite a bit in a short amount of time, coming out of the Caribbean this season.


Absolutely. See the post I just put up at 609.
Quoting reedzone:
NHC making a big mistake canceling recon, but it is what it is.. Just like when they made the mistake of not naming 93L which was clearly a Subtropical Storm that made landfall in Cape Canaveral, FL. Off to work, not surprised by the actions of the NHC lately, not surprised at all.

Yeah, I wish they wouldn't have cancelled recon..Even if it is slightly less organized than yesterday, its still a strong disturbance that has the potential to become a tropical system over the next 48 hours. It would have been nice to see what recon found.

Oh well...
Quoting kmanislander:


Don't trust the models before we have a closed low. I still see this meandering around until probably tomorrow and then a drift to the N or NNW. I put up the current steering back at post 571 I believe. 96L is not going anywhere any time soon.

I agree.
Quoting kmanislander:


Absolutely. See the post I just put up at 609.

You think it has a chance of affecting the U.S.?
Quoting SLU:

lol..Its basically devoid of convection right now...The NHC will drop it to ~0% at 2PM, but then it will fire a lot more convection later on, and they will up it to 10%.

Oceansat's pass, after I fell out lastnight, shows 96L came undone a bit after Windsat's pass.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, I wish they wouldn't have cancelled recon..Even if it is slightly less organized than yesterday, its still a strong disturbance that has the potential to become a tropical system over the next 48 hours. It would have been nice to see what recon found.

Oh well...


It's not going anywhere fast anytime soon...what is the point? It's a waste of money. They have all the tools they need for 96L right now.
Quoting reedzone:
NHC making a big mistake canceling recon, but it is what it is.. Just like when they made the mistake of not naming 93L which was clearly a Subtropical Storm that made landfall in Cape Canaveral, FL. Off to work, not surprised by the actions of the NHC lately, not surprised at all.


It's been struggling since yesterday, but will you give it a rest with 93L and bashing the NHC already!
Quoting kmanislander:


Absolutely. See the post I just put up at 609.
Is land interaction the biggest culprit in regards to developement of 96L?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
96L yesterday afternoon:



Now:

What?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Kman,why the sudden change by the models sending it to CA? You think the lack of vertical inestability may play a roll?


They are seeing a "shallower" system, that is one that remains weak, which would not be drawn to the N by a trough or front. This is the solution that the NOGAPS has been touting for some time.

Also, the position used to initialise each set of model runs is a factor. Assuming the initial position for each recent runs is the 81.7 W position then the models assume the feature to have been moving in that direction since the prior runs which would be towards the coast. In fact, with no real center any so called motion is more a meandering around but the models do not necessarily pick up on that.

lol, the NHC lowers it chances of development slightly, and everybody acts like it has a Near 0% change of developing. Yes, it has become a little less organized since yesterday...So? Systems will struggle every once in a while. As for the models, just because they switched in one night, that means that our opinion should just change drastically too? No.

96L still has the potential to become a dangerous system...In case you have forgot...



Quoting capelookout:

You think it has a chance of affecting the U.S.?


A chance of the Fla. Keys or South Florida but I do not see anything further N than that at this time.
96L reminds me of the system that became Paula. NHC dropped the odds substantially on it because the models backed off on it as it moved over Central America. Became a Category 2 hurricane. Situation might be similar here..
Wilma comparisons were re: track, not intensity.

However, I think there is also a point already made by other bloggers with regard to the possibility of RI, which was also seen in Wilma's case.

This is a situation where patience is key, but also containing a great deal of volatility.
Quoting scott39:
Is land interaction the biggest culprit in regards to developement of 96L?


A number of factors really including upper level atmospheric conditions which are very stable at the moment. The entire season has seen below climo instability which discourages quick development. 96L is also still caught up in the monsoon trough which is another deterrent to development. The surface map below shows it tagged to that trough.

Proximity to land does not help but we have seen many powerful systems start out just like this at or close to the same coordinates.

Quoting kmanislander:


They are seeing a "shallower" system, that is one that remains weak, which would not be drawn to the N by a trough or front. This is the solution that the NOGAPS has been touting for some time.

Also, the position used to initialise each set of model runs is a factor. Assuming the initial position for each recent runs is the 81.7 W position then the models assume the feature to have been moving in that direction since the prior runs which would be towards the coast. In fact, with no real center any so called motion is more a meandering around but the models do not necessarily pick up on that.



Thank you for that clear explanation. This is another excample of why the tropics change not from day to day,but in only a few hours,from a monster cane that the models had in yesterdays runs to today.There are many variables that occur in the tropical regions of the world that can make things look good for a time,but change to not good later in a matter of hours.
Look at the low-level clouds. There's SOMETHING going on in there.
I see the low-level center. Pretty obvious in this image.

The GoM is a little dry.
Been raining non-stop in jupiter, FL since 5 or so.

TORNADO WARNING
FLC086-310100-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0011.111031T0026Z-111031T0100Z/




BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
826 PM EDT SUN OCT 30 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EAST CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

* UNTIL 900 PM EDT

* AT 818 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
A POSSIBLE TORNADO 1 MILE EAST OF BLACK POINT...MOVING NORTHWEST
AT 5 MPH.