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Western Caribbean disturbance 94L organizing; Rick wanes; Lupit still dangerous

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:59 PM GMT on October 20, 2009

A broad 1010 mb low pressure area has developed near 13N 81W in the Western Caribbean, about 300 miles east of the Nicaraguan coast. NHC designated this disturbance Invest 94L this morning. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed no evidence of a surface circulation, and not even much of a shift in wind direction associated with the low. Wind shear is moderate, about 10 - 20 knots, and there is deep layer of high moisture over the entire Western Caribbean, which will aid development. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with 94L has not increased in intensity or areal coverage much over the past 24 hours, but it has begun getting more organized, with some curved bands beginning to form, indicating that a circulation at middle levels of the atmosphere may be starting to spin up. The disturbance will bring 3-day rain totals of 4 - 8 inches to eastern Nicaragua and northeastern Honduras through Thursday, as 94L moves slowly northwestward. As the storm organizes, it may begin to pull moisture from the Pacific across Costa Rica, Panama, and Nicaragua, resulting in flooding rains of 4 - 8 inches along the Pacific slopes of those countries Wednesday through Friday.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Invest 94L.

The forecast for 94L
The SHIPS model forecasts that wind shear will remain in the moderate range, 10 - 15 knots, for the next five days in the Western Caribbean. Sea Surface temperatures are very warm, 29°C, and there is plenty of moisture through a deep layer of the atmosphere. The only major impediment to 94L becoming a tropical storm later this week would seem to be proximity to land. Most of the models foresee a path taking 94L very close to the coast of Nicaragua and then along the north coast of Honduras, and the storm may move inland over one of these countries before it has time to develop into a tropical depression. Due to proximity to land, I give 94L just a medium (30 - 50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression over the next ten days. NHC is giving 94L a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, which is a good forecast. Given 94L's current state of disorganization, Friday is the earliest we should expect it to organize into a tropical depression. NHC has not put the Hurricane Hunters on call to fly 94L Wednesday or Thursday. The ECMWF model foresees that 94L will move northwards next week across Cuba and threaten South Florida, but none of the other models are predicting this. It is too early to know if 94L will be a threat to more than just Central America.

Rick wanes
Tropical Storm Rick has faded from its glory as the second strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane of all time to a mere tropical storm, thank to continued moderate to high wind shear of 15 - 25 knots over the past 36 hours. The shear has managed to inject dry air that lies to the west of Rick directly into its core, which significantly disrupted the storm. With the shear expected to continue at 15 - 25 knots between now and landfall in mainland Mexico on Wednesday afternoon, it is unlikely that the storm will be able to take advantage of the warmer sea surface temperatures it will find along its path over the next 24 hours and re-intensify. It looks like the southern tip of Baja will miss the more severe right-front quadrant of the storm, and NHC is currently giving both Cabo San Lucas and San Jose Cabo on Baja's southern tip just a 50% chance of receiving tropical-storm force winds of 39 mph or greater. The main threat from Rick will be heavy rains over the mountains of Mexico when Rick penetrates inland on Wednesday evening. South Texas can expect just 1 - 2 inches of rain from Rick's remains on Thursday and Friday.

Typhoon Lupit weakens, but still dangerous for the Philippines
Typhoon Lupit has weakened to a Category 2 storm with 95 mph winds, thanks to some dry air that wrapped into the typhoon's core over the past 24 hours, which disrupted the eyewall. It appears from satellite and microwave imagery that Lupit's eyewall is attempting to re-form now, as no more dry air is being sucked into the storm. Lupit is headed west towards a landfall Thursday on the northern portion of Luzon Island in the Philippines. Wind shear over Lupit is in the low range, 5 - 10 knots, and the typhoon is embedded in a very moist environment with warm sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C. Total heat content of the ocean will increase sharply in the final 12 hours before landfall, and it would not be a surprise to see Lupit re-intensify into a major Category 3 storm before landfall.

The northern Philippines are still reeling from the rains and mudslides unleashed by Super Typhoon Parma last week, which crossed over the northern Philippines three times, dumping over twenty inches of rain in many locations. Parma killed 438 people, and 51 are still missing. A week prior to Parma, Typhoon Ketsana brought the heaviest rains in 42 years to the capital of Manila, killing 420 people, with 37 still missing. Lupit will move relatively quickly over the Philippines, but the typhoon is likely to dump 12+ inches of rain over the already saturated soils of northern Luzon Island. These rains will create life-threatening flash floods and mudslides capable of killing hundreds more Filipinos.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for Typhoon Lupit for the 24-hour period ending at 06 UTC Wednesday 10/21/09. Lupit is expected to dump rains in excess of 12 inches (red colors) in a small region near its center. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Cool video
NOAA's Environmental Visualization Laboratory has put together a 4-minute Flash video of the 2008 hurricane season. Infrared satellite imagery for each hour of each day during the 6-month season is looped, and it is fascinating to watch the daily build-up of thunderstorms progress from east to west across the country as each day waxes and wanes. Note that as we head into September this thunderstorm activity diminishes as the continent cools.

I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Tampa spin, there's a bunch of hateful individuals in here now days,seems to be the way of our government and now this blog, what the hell is going on in our country, desenting views are not allowed on any subject?
Just look at the Forecast for the Pac-NW and there you'll find your low :) we got a couple rainmakers coming in Wednesday--Friday--And Sunday the Models will also show you anyways hows 93L doing :)
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "RAMIL" has maintained its strength as it approaches Northern Luzon.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #15
===============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Ramil (Lupit) located at 19.7ºN 126.2ºE or 455 km east northeast of Aparri, Cagayan has 10 minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (95 kts) with gustiness up to 210 km/h (110 kts).

Signal Warnings
================

Signal Warning #3 (100-185 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Batanes Group
2.Cagayan
3.Calayan Island
4.Babuyan Islands

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
-----------
1.Ilocos Norte
2.Ilocos Sur
3.Apayao
4.Abra
5.Kalinga
6.Isabela
7.Mt Province
8.Ifugao
9.Benguet
10.La Union

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Pangasinan
2.Nueva Vizcaya
3.Quirino
4.Aurora
5.Northern Quezon
6.Polillo Islands
7.Nueva Ecija
8.Tarlac
9.Zambales

Additional Information
======================
Residents in low-lying areas and near mountain slopes under signals #3, #2 and #1 are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

Those living along the coast in areas under signal #2 and #3 are advised to be on alert against storm surge and big waves generated by the typhoon.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Central Pacific Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning #11
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE NEKI (CP032009)
9:00 AM UTC OCTOBER 21 2009
=======================================

Subject: Tropical Storm Watch For Johnston Atoll And Hurricane Watch For Papahanaumokuakea National Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Lisianski

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Neki (985 hPa) located at 16.3N 166.0W or 205 NM east of Johnston Atoll has sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 90 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center

Gale/Storm Force Winds
================
200 NM from the center

Cyclone Watch
============
A Tropical Storm Watch Remains In Effect For Johnston Atoll

Hurricane Watch For Papahanaumokuakea National Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Lisianski

Forecast and Intensity
========================
12 HRS: 17.5N 166.9W - 85 knots (SSHS-2 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 19.0N 167.5W - 95 knots (SSHS-2 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 22.0N 168.6W - 110 knots (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 23.8N 168.9W - 100 knots (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Warning #24
TROPICAL CYCLONE RICK (EP202009)
9:00 AM UTC October 21 2009
=======================================

Subject: "Rick" resumes track towards Mexico

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Rick (990 hPa) located at 21.8N 108.2W or 120 NM southeast of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico has sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northeast at 12 knots

Gale/Storm Force Winds
================
130 NM from the center

Cyclone Warning
==================
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for along the coast of mainland Mexico from San Blas to Altata

Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for west coast of southern Baja California from Agua Blanca southward and for the east coast from Buena Vista southward... including Cabo San Lucas

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 23.1N 106.7W - 50 knots (Tropical Storm)
24 HRS: 24.3N 104.7W - 20 knots (Overland Low Pressure Area)
48 HRS: Dissipated
Quoting Thopfner:
Just look at the Forecast for the Pac-NW and there you'll find your low :) we got a couple rainmakers coming in Wednesday--Friday--And Sunday the Models will also show you anyways hows 93L doing :)


Do you mean 94L? Because that is the Caribbean system. 93L is that EATL tropical wave that has no chance of developing due to strong upper-level shear.

94L may not develop either. I definitely see what Ike and Tampa are talking about with most of the energy being concentrated in the Pacific.
From the Prelimary Forecast Discussion NCEP

OVER THE TROPICS THE 00Z ECMWF EXHIBITS ANOTHER CONTINUITY CHANGE
IN DOWNPLAYING ANY POTENTIAL NWRN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
THAT PRIOR RUNS HAD ADVERTISED. THE 00Z GFS NOW DEPICTS A WEAK
SYSTEM WHILE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS RATHER ILL DEFINED. FOLLOWING
STANDARD PROCEDURE... THE EARLY PRELIM FCST RETAINS YDAYS TPC/HPC
COORDINATED EVOLUTION THAT BROUGHT A WEAK FEATURE TO WRN CUBA BY
EARLY DAY 6 TUE. EXTRAPOLATION TO DAY 7 BRINGS A WEAK SPOT LOW TO
THE SWRN FL COAST.

MULTIPLE QUESTION MARKS PRESENT IN THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS RESULT IN
PREFERRING THE 12Z/20 ECMWF AS THE BASIS FOR THE DAYS 3-5 SAT-MON
FCST WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. THE 00Z GEFS/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEANS ARE ADDED TO THE 12Z/20 ECMWF FOR DAYS 6-7 TO EMPHASIZE WHAT
CONSENSUS EXISTS WITH THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN.

Good Morning,

Why is it everytime a model drops a system, some quickly jump to conclusions, and conclusions that they want. The thing has days to develop, and everytime a model drops its, some keep jumping the gun. Give the thing time and look for patterns. What if the 12Z ECMWF develops it? Notice the GFS also develops it. It's alot of hunches and not enough educated guesses going on.
Quoting reedzone:
Very broad, but 94L has gotten better organized, continues to do so. Don't bash me on this but it appears that a burst of convection could develop tonight by the way the structure is and by past invests. Looks good tonight, don't know why others are unimpressed.



This in an old post, but there was a lot of 'wishcaster' vs 'downcaster' calling last night, it was actually pretty sad. Way too overused. These are the posts that are usually ridiculed.

'I think (insert invest/disturbance here) has a great chance at developing if and only if it can clear the (landmass/shear/dry air) the models are certainly very tight on developing the system, so all in all we'll see what happens'

Posts like these are always labeled 'wishcasters'

'I don't think (insert invest/disturbance here) has a good chance of developing, first of all it has (dry air/shear/land) that it has to deal with and poor model support.'

example of a post were they are labeled 'downcasters'

NOW here's an example of a wishcaster.

'PLZ PLZ DEVELOP (insert disturbance/invest) I want to miz skool plz develop'

example of a downcaster.
'haha that (Inert disturbance/invest) is so sadd.. wat a bust of season so will next year to season dead so is next rip.'

Note the poor spelling and bad grammar giving away their age.
1010. MahFL
whatever you don't mention grammar or spelling on this blog.....
Quoting Weather456:
Good Morning,

Why is it everytime a model drops a system, some quickly jump to conclusions, and conclusions that they want. The thing has days to develop, and everytime a model drops its, some keep jumping the gun. Give the thing time and look for patterns. What if the 12Z ECMWF develops it? Notice the GFS also develops it. It's alot of hunches and not enough educated guesses going on.
Good morning. I was not surprised they dropped it and I am sure at some point probably later today they will pick it up again.
1012. MahFL
Also Charlie Crist is praying all the canes away, so we have no chance of some "action".
seems as if the system is wandering alittle. interesting last night steve lyons said the models for systems in this part of the world are pretty much worthless and that he expected a slow northern drift
This is Friday and low pressure still there so probably pick up on it again.
1015. MahFL
Looks like a NNE drift to me atm.
Quoting leftovers:
seems as if the system is wandering alittle. interesting last night steve lyons said the models for systems in this part of the world are pretty much worthless and that he expected a slow northern drift


Thank you. It's a very complex system, and the models have been flip flopping since, ECMWF only until recently. Now the GFS, which never developed the system, develops it.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
This is Friday and low pressure still there so probably pick up on it again.
Actually, I think it is Saturday.
well tampa and ike thats why i rarely post anymore. you both hit the nail on the head.i got a 24 hr ban on monday for replying to jfv or whoever he is, nonsense. these blog admins state one set of rules, but let the continued nonsense continue, and then ban the people who reply due to being fed up.ike mentioned that their are paticular bloggers who only post when a system that has or has not developed, has model support showing a system affecting thier area.once the system fizzles or forecast to turn another direction they dissappear. so the comment of these being wishcasters holds water. but how is someone a downcaster when all they comment on has support from the majority of the experts, and scientific forecast to back it up.i will probably get banned for this comment; but i really think sometimes the blog admin might be some of these trolls themselves. i would think these admins are fairly well educated, so why are they not following thier rules for multiple handles.in summary i would like to tell people like storm w, tampa, 456, and especially ike to hang in there i do enjoy your posts and dont let the kids and trolls back down your opinions.have a blessed day billy.
AMZ089-211530-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

.SYNOPSIS...
STATIONARY FRONT HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN WILL
WILL DRIFT NW FRI AND SAT. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THU...AND SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN LATE FRI INTO SAT NEAR
THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS THE LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
MOVES NWD.

Looks like the NHC not giving up on it.
1020. WxLogic
Good morning...

ECMWF has backed off from development. Looking at the VORT MAX data between 850MB and 500MB it sure looks that is having problems staying stacked.
And meanwhile ICKY RICKY makes his presence known to the gulf coast :)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
410 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

.MARINE...
THE OTHER HAZARD WILL BE STRONG AND SEVERE TS DEVELOPMENT. A STRONG
DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD
FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SEVERAL AREAS OF
SEVERE TS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SOME OF THESE WILL EVEN MOVE INTO
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND ISLAND MARSH AREAS ALONG THE COAST. STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN PROVIDING LESS VOLATILE WEATHER BY LATE
SUNDAY. RETURN FLOW WILL THEN BEGIN BY THE START OF THE WEEK AHEAD
OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
455 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2009

CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER NORTHERN
ZONES. MORE NOTABLY...PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE AS THE REMNANTS OF TS RICK BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH. AS A RESULT...STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF UP TO 3 TO 5 INCHES IN SOME
SPOTS WITH MINOR FLOODING IN URBAN OR LOW LYING AREAS POSSIBLE
1022. MahFL
cancelled.
1023. WxLogic
Should be an interesting 12Z run between the GFS and ECMWF.
high volcanos and mountain ranges hurting this system
Mornin guys. Still waiting to see what, if anything the Carib has in store for us.
1029. IKE
From the 8:05 am EDST tropical weather discussion...

"CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
THAT DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA. A 1008 MB
LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W AND EXTENDS
SURFACE TROUGHING N-NW TO A 1010 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 18N87W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA
AND INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN THAT IS ENHANCING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FOCUSED MAINLY E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.
THIS ACTIVITY COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W TO JAMAICA AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR E OF 70W.".................


10N and 84W is within 50 miles of the Pacific ocean.
1030. WxLogic
Morning... :)
Quoting IKE:
From the 8:05 am EDST tropical weather discussion...

"CARIBBEAN SEA...
A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA PENINSULA
THAT DIPS S OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA. A 1008 MB
LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W AND EXTENDS
SURFACE TROUGHING N-NW TO A 1010 MB LOW IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
NEAR 18N87W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS LOCATED TO THE E EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO ACROSS EASTERN HISPANIOLA
AND INTO THE W ATLC. THIS IS PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT
ALOFT ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN THAT IS ENHANCING A BROAD AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FOCUSED MAINLY E OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.
THIS ACTIVITY COVERS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM
COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W TO JAMAICA AND NORTHEASTWARD TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N73W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW IN THE CENTRAL
ATLC PROVIDING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR E OF 70W.".................


10N and 84W is within 50 miles of the Pacific ocean.


Question, where is it forecast to go?
Mornin Storm.
1033. IKE
According to the 5:30 am EDST synopsis....

THEN WILL
WILL DRIFT NW FRI AND SAT.
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!
Good morning. Hope you are well.
Quoting StormW:


I'm good.

You?
Ok. Still very overcast here in Cayman.
1039. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAINS WILL
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA...AND HONDURAS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
guys I think the center might relocate to 12/13N 81W

1041. IKE
...RICK WEAKENING FAST AS IT NEARS THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO....
5:00 AM PDT Wed Oct 21
Location: 22.3°N 107.5°W
Max sustained: 55 mph
Moving: NE at 16 mph
Min pressure: 994 mb
1042. amd
i see nothing wrong stating that the Caribbean system will head to the pacific because:

1) The maximum vorticity of the entire mess is now just south of the little lake in Nicaragua just east of the pacific.

Link

2) Any signature of the cutoff monsoon low in the sw caribbean has disappeared, as the low continues to move slowly west.

Link

3) This is an El Nino year, therefore the flow from the SW Caribbean to the eastern pacific may be more progressive this time of year than usual, even if it is not easily seen.
1043. IKE
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys I think the center might relocate to 12/13N 81W




Look at this close loop of 94L from Ramsdis....

Set the animation speed almost all the way to the right. You can see where it's spinning.

Memo to NHC: Ever going to put a floater on 94L?
Quoting IKE:



Look at this close loop of 94L from Ramsdis....

Set the animation speed almost all the way to the right. You can see where it's spinning.

Memo to NHC: Ever going to put a floater on 94L?


I see and what??
IMO 94L will develop its been hanging around too long & been too persistent, almost a certain sign that it will eventually develop & movement imo will be more N/NE , jmo.
1046. IKE
Quoting amd:
i see nothing wrong stating that the Caribbean system will head to the pacific because:

1) The maximum vorticity of the entire mess is now just south of the little lake in Nicaragua just east of the pacific.

Link

2) Any signature of the cutoff monsoon low in the sw caribbean has disappeared, as the low continues to move slowly west.

Link

3) This is an El Nino year, therefore the flow from the SW Caribbean to the eastern pacific may be more progressive this time of year than usual, even if it is not easily seen.


If that darn low went into the east-PAC it would probably blow up into a cane within 48 hours. Kind of like what Rick did(not the same strength though).

I'm not saying that's going to happen...as far as track.

Quoting wunderkidcayman:


I see and what??


I can see why the NHC lists the coordinates as 10N and 84W.
Quoting stormpetrol:
IMO 94L will develop its been hanging around too long & been too persistent, almost a certain sign that it will eventually develop & movement imo will be more N/NE , jmo.

I agree with you
COC around 12N/82.5W?
1049. amd
i am very interested to see this same graphic when it is updated later today.

72 hour Caribbean Forecast (Updated at 8 pm yesterday)
Quoting stormpetrol:
COC around 12N/82.5W?

I was thinking the same but at 12.5/13N 81.5/82W
i tend to think this invest wont develop its a trend this yr
Quoting IKE:



Look at this close loop of 94L from Ramsdis....

Set the animation speed almost all the way to the right. You can see where it's spinning.

Memo to NHC: Ever going to put a floater on 94L?


I see what you're talking about a definite "spin" inland actually around 10/85, but I see a "spin" 12/82, 2 competing as usual I guess.
Quoting amd:
i am very interested to see this same graphic when it is updated later today.

72 hour Caribbean Forecast (Updated at 8 pm yesterday)



Seems they are triangulating a mean center position as the surface low can meander & relocate aimlessly within the broad area. Until a better defined center presents itself I doubt they will change it much.
1054. IKE
Quoting stormpetrol:


I see what you're talking about a definite "spin" inland actually around 10/85, but I see a "spin" 12/82, 2 competing as usual I guess.


That's close to where I see it...just north of 10N and 85W, now that the 1145UTC visible is available.

I don't see a spin at 12/82.
I see the center on the coast @ 9.9N 82.5W
1056. ackee
guys ECMWF last run did not show much with 94L seem like it has it moveing NE
Quoting IKE:


That's close to where I see it...just north of 10N and 85W, now that the 1145UTC visible is available.

I don't see a spin at 12/82.
94LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-125N-823W.100pc.jpg | Navy Site
1058. ackee
my think we wont see much of 94L until sat into sun think new centre will form SW of Jamaica move slightly NE then head back sowly westward
Douglas!
1060. Dakster
94L doesn't look like much, it would be nice as IKE said if NHC would put one of the many unused, unassigned, turned off, floaters on 94L....
the area of disturbed weather in the south western caribbean is a rather complex system, displaying a number of vortices. there is no clear cut area of of where a LLC could be located. the area is being affected by an area of disturbed weather in the EPAC off the west coast of COSTA RICA. at the moment the area is disorganised and will take sometime to come together. looking at the sat pics i believe that a LLC might form where there has been an increase in convection near 13n 80w. this again might just be an ordinary blow up of convection. whatever happens in this area will take a long time before we have a tropical entity ie TD or TS
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
94LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-125N-823W.100pc.jpg | Navy Site


you sure thats up to date?
Brian! Mornin bro.
Quoting ElConando:


you sure thats up to date?
Yes.
1065. Dakster
Storm 94 was dropped from the SFWMD site... Might be old data as ElConando suggested.
20091021.1215.goes12.x.vis1km_high.94LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-125N-823W.100pc.jpg |
1067. ackee
quick poll what will become of 94L?

A TW
B TD
C TS
D Dissipate
E HURRICANE
Quoting Dakster:
Storm 94 was dropped from the SFWMD site... Might be old data as ElConando suggested.
No. It's updated information.
1069. amd
on the navy site, as of 8:15 edt (12:15 utc), the system is still listed at 12.5 N 82.3 W.

Navy site, just click on 94L for current information

Although, as I said previously, I agree with IKE with the low currently being near 10 N 85 W, and maybe even slightly more west than that.


Quoting ackee:
quick poll what will become of 94L?

A TW
B TD
C TS
D Dissipate

E. eventually a hurricane imo.
Quoting stormpetrol:

E. eventually a hurricane imo.
Quite possibly. I remember Paloma well and all the "downcasting" previously.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Quite possibly. I remember Paloma well and all the "downcasting" previously.

i'm going by climatology, usually this time of year when you see an area of disturbed weather hang around that long, look out for a hurricane eventually , jmo.
Quoting stormpetrol:

i'm going by climatology, usually this time of year when you see an area of disturbed weather hang around that long, look out for a hurricane eventually , jmo.
I agree.
456 says the center is along the coast, so I guess none of us really know. Im sure stormw can help us out later.
It looks to me more like its trying to develop a circulation on the E pac side?
I am in CT and am getting nervous over this system,

What are the odds that it moves across Florida and up the coast into CT as a CAT 3 or Greater?

This could be a scary situation.
1078. ackee
normaly a system in the SW carrb would develop in a hurricae agree this year condtion are just not right below average year el nino year may see nothing develop or weak TS the most
Good morning all

The low that was in the SW Caribbean is presently transiting Costa Rica on its way into the Pacific. The NHC has this progged to continue moving W once it crosses the isthmus.

A new low may form in the SW Caribbean if the unsettled weather hangs around. However, until the current low moves out of the way that is unlikely to happen.
1081. P451
94L - 36 hour IR Loop

Wow...Neki is forecast to become a Cat 3...

1083. P451
1084. P451
dupe post
if the system is still spinning sunday basically in the same spot the blog will od
1086. Patrap
Cap'n,..she's making the Jump to The Pacific..
It is of course possible that with weak steering it could meander back into the SW Caribbean. The circulation is looking quite expansive this morning and it is perhaps a good thing that it drifted onto land.

Back later.
1088. ackee
Quoting P451:
seem like two low ONE E PAC other SW CARRB
Quoting ElConando:
456 says the center is along the coast, so I guess none of us really know. Im sure stormw can help us out later.


Hate to disagree with 456 if he said this but, 94L is inland Vorticity confirms that at 850mb and 700mb.......No question it is inland.



1090. IKE
Quoting Patrap:
Cap'n,..she's making the Jump to The Pacific..


Yup...that's what I see too.
Quoting ackee:
seem like two low ONE E PAC other SW CARRB


Try looking at it on the basis that there is one low over Costa Rica and then you can see that the rotation is quite broad. The cloud field on the Pacific side is rotating from NW around to E then NE and in the SW Caribbean from the SW to NE then to the NW.

The feature has become quite large in aerial coverage.

Have a good day all.
Less concerned this morning in terms of 94L doing anything significant,circulation still looks ill defind and broad in nature.Could very well develope in the epac.

adrian
Quoting IKE:


Yup...that's what I see too.


Said that late last nite along with IKE....
1094. IKE
If it is located in the east-PAC, what happens to the invest #? Changed to the next one on the east-PAC list?
1095. Patrap
Lupit
JSL Still Image

1097. Patrap
Morning Ike,..I believe a Basin Change would cause a Invest Number switch.
1098. beell
Anybody remember the large late-season gyre that sat over the Yucatan a couple of years ago?
With a surface low making cyclonic laps around the center of the gyre. Must have made two or three laps around the Yucatan. Kept waiting for it to consolidate/tighten up and catch a ride to the NE ahead of a cold front. Never happened.

It did spit out a series of mid-level vorts to the NE towards Cuba and FL with every lap. Each one watched very closely for development. Nada.

Just a wild thought for a "seed" next week.
The gyre itself consolidating and winding up or a surface low popping up along a prefrontal trough much more conventional.

A sleeping giant: 94L/October 2007
Quoting Patrap:
Morning Ike,..I believe a Basin Change would cause a Invest Number switch.


Can we debate that....LOL....Pat J/K
Nothing has been run since 12z yesterday, ECMWF/GFS really dont do much with this feature.

Looks like an increase in moisture for the southeast in a few days.
1101. IKE
Firing up nicely in the eastern Pacific. Why am I not surprised? 94L is smart...knows there's an El Nino in the Atlantic and switches basins.
The Yellow circle on 94L should be removed and await a new one in a few days if needed!
1103. Patrap
Quoting IKE:
Firing up nicely in the eastern Pacific. Why am I not surprised? 94L is smart...knows there's an El Nino in the Atlantic and switches basins.


Plus the Sunsets are incredible there this time of year as well.
1104. IKE
Quoting Patrap:


Plus the Sunsets are incredible there this time of year as well.


LOL.
Quoting IKE:
Firing up nicely in the eastern Pacific. Why am I not surprised? 94L is smart...knows there's an El Nino in the Atlantic and switches basins.


Got some good Alcohol and other spirits to make he/she happy there also.
1106. IKE
Quoting TampaSpin:
The Yellow circle on 94L should be removed and await a new one in a few days if needed!


Or put on the eastern Pacific side.

Looks to be near 10.5N and just east of 86W.
Just a Quik flyby...

Well, any surface center would have to be on land given this (assuming QS isn't offsetting the center to the SW, which is possible):


(Full size, click)


And of those 20 and 30 knot (RAIN FLAGGED) barbs on the QuikScat, nothing close on the surface obs. No more than 10 knots anywhere near...


(Full size, click)


L8R.
1108. WxLogic
From NWS - MLB Disc:

SUN-TUE...ECM/GFS BOTH DEPICT LCL PATTERN ALOFT BACKING FROM A
FLAT/ZONAL WSW FLOW TO A LITTLE MORE MERIDIONAL (SW/SSW) AS WRN
ATLC RIDGE BUILDS. THIS COULD OPEN THE GATES FOR DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO LIFT NWD OUT OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN TWD FL...THEREBY
INCREASING RAIN CHCS. TOO EARLY TO SERIOUSLY DISCUSS/CONSIDER
WHETHER OR NOT A COHERENT SYSTEM OF ANY SORT MIGHT DEVELOP...
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DAY 6-7 TIME FRAME AND ASCD INCONSISTENCIES
ABOUND...SO HAVE CONSERVATIVELY NUDGED POPS UP TO 30% FOR MON/TUE
AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. WILL LKLY SEE ADDITIONAL CHGS TO THE
GRIDDED/TXT FCSTS FOR NEXT WEEK AS IT DRAWS CLOSER.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Just a Quik flyby...

Well, any surface center would have to be on land given this (assuming QS isn't offsetting the center to the SW, which is possible):


(Full size, click)


And of those 20 and 30 knot (RAIN FLAGGED) barbs on the QuikScat, nothing close on the surface obs. No more than 10 knots anywhere near...


(Full size, click)


L8R.

Good Evening one and all.
Looking at the bottom sat image, Looks like 94L is now in the EPAC.
1111. ackee
with all said 94L is dead condition are just not right this year el nino year seasons is over know most of us like myself want something to track but guess try 2010 bye
94L imo will eventually become a Caribbean storm, it may split with one area in the EPAC & one in the W caribbean, but imo no one in the W & NW caribbean, including the Bahamas should write off 94L, JMO
Quoting AussieStorm:

Good Evening one and all.
Looking at the bottom sat image, Looks like 94L is now in the EPAC.

Good evening. Ma nature pulling a bait and switch on us over here, I think.

With the MJO status, going to start checking out the status of waves following 94L. 94L not a Caribbean/GoM threat any longer, IMO.

Another step in our direction, not forecasted one day in advance...
Pronounced rotation looks to be centered across the epac. You can view it here via ramsdis central america floater.

I new low may be trying to form near 12N 80W....not sure they would label that 94L or rename if something new was to develop i would guess it would stay the same 94L
1118. Grothar
Quoting TampaSpin:
I new low may be trying to form near 12N 80W....not sure they would label that 94L or rename if something new was to develop i would guess it would stay the same 94L


You see that too, TampaSpin?
If something is to form..it would be south of Jamaica in a couple days Fri/Sat... not the midlevel low that peeps been watching into C America over the past few days. I usually wait till something develops before I say anything...and again.. its a wait and see.
94L has been dropped....as i expected...only 93L is out there now...guess many will be disappointed with there forecast.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I new low may be trying to form near 12N 80W....not sure they would label that 94L or rename if something new was to develop i would guess it would stay the same 94L


yea that is my thinking, for anyone who thinks this is all over with, well no it is not. Several models have forecast the possibility of a new low forming and that is what develops

Remember the GFDL from yesterday? Moved the current low inland and dissipated it than formed a new low and strengthened that
Quoting TampaSpin:
94L has been dropped....as i expected...only 93L is out there now...guess many will be disappointed with there forecast.


well based on what has happened the last 24 hours, maybe 94L was tagged too soon
Quoting scottsvb:
If something is to form..it would be south of Jamaica in a couple days Fri/Sat... not the midlevel low that peeps been watching into C America over the past few days. I usually wait till something develops before I say anything...and again.. its a wait and see.


Scott i'm with ya...
hey all,

um, I think it definitely looks like 94L is Pacific bound, maybe another Rick scenario? (not necessarily strength, etc, just maybe another storm from an Atl wave)
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


well based on what has happened the last 24 hours, maybe 94L was tagged too soon


Remember the bashing you and many was giving me for saying that....Its ok....i don't take things too heart often....LOL
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


well based on what has happened the last 24 hours, maybe 94L was tagged too soon

Nah not tagged to soon but 94l was simply never likely to develop.. around 10% I'd guess and that's worthy of invest but with no model support this early I don't think many people expected this particular COC to develop but rather that the disturbed weather had a good chance as a whole in the next 5-10days.
From this morning's TLH discussion:

"Tropics watch...though we are quickly approaching the end of what
was a rather slow tropical season for landfalling storms...the 00z
GFS and 12z Euro show a tropical system entering the western
Carribean by late this weekend. The models are not in total
agreement with what to do with it once it exits the Carribean. The
Euro is a bit more aggressive as it advances the tropical system
into the Gulf and along the West Coast of Florida by middle week while
the GFS is a bit slower on the movement of the system with it
gradually moving northwest into the Gulf through middle week.
Regardless...it is something to keep our eye on."


Very broad low, unstacked, MLC in the EPAC giving the illusion it has moved.


94l has been dropped :) this season gets better an d better. Best season in years!!!
1132. Keys99
We should get Dr. M's take on all this shortly
Quoting StormW:
Morning aggie...yeah...here it comes. Gettin into THOSE octants



StormW i believe this is the first true MJO uplift we have truly had since early June.
94L wasnt tagged too soon...it was a Yellow circle.. which means slight chance for development. All you really need is a Red circle to think something is about ready to form. NHC can put up 100 yellow circles a year and only 10% will make TD status.. Orange 25% Red 50% or if they do sometimes dissipate after become a TD cause of shear or whatever.

I usually ignore the yellows and even the oranges.. that is something new and just for the public. We like to NowCast and see whats going to develop really within 24hrs...but will look @ the models out to 120hrs.. anything more than 120 hrs is a Farmers Alnamac....its just "Pretty Maps" what some call them. Right now the ECMWF has totally droped off the development of something in the carribean. This may be true cause it had no support.. now the GFS has little if any support, but I do believe moisture will come up do the the troughiness over the U.S. in a week or so... will there be a system? Too early to tell. We may know by Friday into Saturday if something starts taking shape. Also the GOM is cooler down to under 80dg south of Sarasota out 100 miles..by time something (if anything does come North into the GOM next week) the 80dg mark will probably be down to the southern GOM south of 25N.. Shear from the westerlys, drier air(usually this time of year)and cooler ssts will probably make whatever is down there..more drier on the western side of a system once it enters the GOM.. Anyways these are the possibilities of things.. but of things that usually hold up
Storm said he believes a low is developing just east of Nicaragua.
1139. IKE
Ramsdis adjusted their floater....

Steering is not conducive for development at this time I guess. Still 2-3 week window to watch for something to develop imo.
Quoting IKE:
Ramsdis adjusted their floater....



I knew this thing had to jump its had convection there for 2+ days.

This season really confuses me. I need an ice pack.
A new low is froming near 12.5N 80W
New Blog
1144. Patrap
Be on the Lookout for a Red Wasp,Uptown NOLA,..the subject assaulted a wu-blogger (me) and was last seen flying North towards Magazine Street.

Be advised its armed and dangerous..

1129. Hold on a tic, can whisperer, are you saying the MLC is very broad and is still in the Caribbean?
Quoting TampaSpin:
A new low is froming near 12.5N 80W


Cue the "dun dun dun!!!!!!!" music.
1147. hydrus
Quoting ElConando:


I knew this thing had to jump its had convection there for 2+ days.

This season really confuses me. I need an ice pack.
And I need a 6 pack...jk
1148. hcubed
Quoting beell:
Anybody remember the large late-season gyre that sat over the Yucatan a couple of years ago?
With a surface low making cyclonic laps around the center of the gyre. Must have made two or three laps around the Yucatan. Kept waiting for it to consolidate/tighten up and catch a ride to the NE ahead of a cold front. Never happened.

It did spit out a series of mid-level vorts to the NE towards Cuba and FL with every lap. Each one watched very closely for development. Nada.

Just a wild thought for a "seed" next week.
The gyre itself consolidating and winding up or a surface low popping up along a prefrontal trough much more conventional.

A sleeping giant: 94L/October 2007


And in re-reading the history from that "sleeping giant", it was re-numbered (from 94L to 99L), and wound up as a low hitting the Tex/La border.

Didn't toss out anything serious. The only other storms after that were Noel (Oct 28), and Olga (Dec 11th).