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Western Caribbean disturbance 91L remaining about the same

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:47 PM GMT on October 20, 2008

An area of disturbed weather associated with a large area of low pressure (91L) continues to fester off the coast of Belize in the Western Caribbean Sea. This morning's QuickSCAT pass revealed no surface circulation, although some rotation at higher levels of the atmosphere is apparent on satellite loops. The intensity and areal coverage of heavy thunderstorms in the disturbance increased some in the past few hours, spreading over the Cayman Islands. However pressures are not falling at present over the Western Caribbean. Wind shear is a high 20 knots.

The forecast for 91L
Wind shear is expected to remain in the 15-25 knot range over the next four days, which should allow some slow development of the disturbance. Steering currents are weak, and a slow movement west to a point near the Belize coast is possible today through Tuesday. Heavy rains will affect Belize, Mexico's eastern Yucatan Peninsula, and the Cayman Islands through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure swinging across the Midwest U.S. should be able to start pulling 91L northward or northwestward by Wednesday. Once 91L enters the Gulf of Mexico on Thursday, the trough should swing the storm to the northeast, bringing it across the west coast of Florida on Friday or Saturday. Wind shear will be very high over the Gulf of Mexico this week, in the 30-40 knot range, and I doubt 91L would be able to intensify into a hurricane in the face of that kind of shear. The 00Z (8 pm EDT) run of the GFDL model develops 91L into a tropical storm that hits Florida near Sarasota Friday morning with 50 mph winds. The 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFS model is slower, predicting a landfall near Tampa on Saturday morning. However, this landfall may occur as a weaker subtropical storm or extratropical storm, as predicted by the latest phase space diagrams from Bob Hart at Florida State. The other reliable models do not develop 91L. NHC is giving 91L a medium (20-50% chance) of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast. It currently does not appear that 91L will interfere with the World Series baseball game scheduled to be played Thursday night in St. Petersburg, Florida. Batter up!


Figure 1. Latest satellite image of the Western Caribbean disturbance, 91L.

I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Have a nice week ahead DOC!
The weather is much too nice for a storm. Go Away!
At least the baseball game won't be rained out.
Good morning Dr Masters. Thank you for the udpate. I was just coming in to see what was going on with 91... I don't want any type of Wilma October surprise coming this way!

Hi everyone, will check back later.

Take care,
Gams
Good Morning all and thanks for the update Dr. M. Weather too beautiful to even think about another storm.
Thank you Dr!
About the only concern for now is for the people getting drenched by this system.

Hello Everyone,

I am finally back to work and able to have access to the Internet. St. Croix is about 80% back to normal. Schools are still out due to flooding, but goverment employees are back to work and businesses are open as usual. There are still some damages and debris that needs to be taken care of. In all, life is beginning to feel normal while some of the eastern side of the island is still under damages.

Bye.
Quoting SWFLgazer:
At least the baseball game won't be rained out.


It would be so fitting if that idiot MLB commissioner(Bud Selig), had to do something about the WS, being he screwed the Astros at MMP in Houston when IKE hit.
oH my goodnes -- I feel like a celebrity this morning.... my town's name specifically mentioned in the DR.'s blog..... now to decide if this is good new or ick news.

See that, I make plans to leave town and all heck can break lose.

it's so ironic and no computer all week
thx for the update CaribWave
Quoting CaribbeanWave:
Hello Everyone,

I am finally back to work and able to have access to the Internet. St. Croix is about 80% back to normal.


Good to hear, thankyou!
Ditto Doc!!!!, I couldn't have said it better myself!!!(I actually did!!)...should put some of the nay-sayers back in there seats(season's over huh???)...lol
Thanks, Dr. M. it's kinda sad that the season is coming to an end. I mean i'm happy that this means people will not get hurt or their lives ruined but i get a real enjoyment out of watching these systems evolve.
Quoting surfmom:
oH my goodnes -- I feel like a celebrity this morning.... my town's name specifically mentioned in the DR.'s blog..... now to decide if this is good new or ick news.

See that, I make plans to leave town and all heck can break lose.

it's so ironic and no computer all week



I don't ever want to hear him mention my town's name (LOL)
Quoting SWFLgazer:
At least the baseball game won't be rained out.


they're playing in a dome,my friend!!!
Hi All. TD 16 took a toll on us and hundreds of people are in shelters due to unprecedented flooding - thank God no lives lost so far. Now I see we are in for more! Rain rain go away!! Tks for all the info Dr. M. and everyone else.
good ole "aunt fester"...lol
Quoting belizeweatherfan:
Hi All. TD 16 took a toll on us and hundreds of people are in shelters due to unprecedented flooding - thank God no lives lost so far. Now I see we are in for more! Rain rain go away!! Tks for all the info Dr. M. and everyone else.


I've been waiting for someone from Belize to check in...confirms my worries, unfortunately.

Hope this is over for you soon, stay safe and keep us updated.
Quoting stillwaiting:
Ditto Doc!!!!, I couldn't have said it better myself!!!(I actually did!!)...should put some of the nay-sayers back in there seats(season's over huh???)...lol
ROTFL -- Still --I could feel/hear your 'Heh, heh, heh'.... over the bridge and down the road to my house....Had a feeling I'd be coming back to some action
Just my luck. I'm flying out of Tampa Saturday morning to see our Bucs take on Dallas in TX. Does anyone thing I'll have flight delay due to the storm?
I was wondering about Belize as well... everytime I look the past few days plus --rain and more rain
Quoting surfmom:
ROTFL -- Still --I could feel/hear your 'Heh, heh, heh'.... over the bridge and down the road to my house....Had a feeling I'd be coming back to some action



yea,I might get to put my new "boogie board" to the test,lol...
surfmom:when I put my order in,would you like me to order onshore or offshore winds for you when you come back???...lol
GM all,looks like the weather gets interesting again,oh and congrats to the rays,nice little team there,I'll be rooting for them.
Quoting stillwaiting:



yea,I might get to put my new "boogie board" to the test,lol...
YES you will!! -- we call 'em Teabags....another great product from the Aussies.
Quoting weathers4me:
Just my luck. I'm flying out of Tampa Saturday morning to see our Bucs take on Dallas in TX. Does anyone thing I'll have flight delay due to the storm?


Possible, but you're just going to have to stay tuned for a couple days. Future of this system is very uncertain.
offshore, south, southwesterlies, GLASSY waist to chest.....
Does anybody believe the GFDL?
Actually, I thought the models were coming into better agreement...and more models were jumping onboard a Florida Tropical Storm.

Check the SFWMD Models for 91L: Link
Quoting tea3781:
Does anybody believe the GFDL?


I don't think I would total disregard it, but it has had some issues this year...
Good morning, nasty day here in the Caymans, lots of rain and occasional squalls.
Surfmom - I think your safe, remember from earlier in season - the one place that won't be hit is whoever is in the path in the first models.

With the type of shear that is forecast, I wonder whether any storm could ramp itself up, could be another tropical blob movement. They do plenty of damage by themselves, but mostly from the water.

91L's center appears to be just inland from the central guatamalain coast now.....
...but w/probably relocate under more coductive thunderstorm activity to the north....
the post season for Hurricane Bertha is out


Link
Quoting fmbill:
Actually, I thought the models were coming into better agreement...and more models were jumping onboard a Florida Tropical Storm.

Check the SFWMD Models for 91L: Link


It may not even get over the Yucatan...it may stay over water
32Zoo - from your lips to Ma Natures' Ears.....surf report from the other side seems to be very rough -- may end up with the rum & sun for several days -- which wouldn't be the worst thing. Poor pooch is in a panic.... she see's the travel bag...but know that when the boards on the car she's not going......little does she realize --she's the mascot on this surf safari
Quoting fmbill:


I don't think I would total disregard it, but it has had some issues this year...


I mean with the strength...every run it has been having this storm hit Florida as a cat 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. I thought there was going to be a lot of sheer in the Gulf? Could it be as subtropical storm?
Link

Check out this link , might take a few minutes to load.
What I do not understand is that as of this morning south fla mets are saying that the 91l will move westward. The models say different, as far as this morning.
As of 12Z the extrapolated forward motion of 91L for the past 12 hours is South:


Photobucket

Quoting tea3781:


I mean with the strength...every run it has been having this storm hit Florida as a cat 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm. I thought there was going to be a lot of sheer in the Gulf? Could it be as subtropical storm?


Of course, the possibilites are many, but if it gets to the gulf, it will be interacting with an approaching frontal system. This would tend to give it more torque.
43. IKE
Quoting vortfix:
As of 12Z the extrapolated forward motion of 91L for the past 12 hours is South:


Photobucket



It may wind up doing a loop....then back to the north eventually.
Geeze Louise - damned any way I wish. The shear going into the gulf -- which would keep 91L in check is going to make surf life nasty on the other side... yet if the sheer goes away Paloma may come to play.... guess I'll just sit back and go with flow......I'm not in charge.....
Hi robindahood from southern Belize,

The news here is that we have had lots and lots of rain, several roads are flooded and vehicles are unable to pass (including my local road here - we are cut off except by boat). www.hydromet.gov.bz will give you more information although it often isn't up to date. You can also listen to Love FM on line. Love FM always broadcasts through even the most drastic weather and you will get up to date information there, as people call in to the station and act as local reporters in times of crisis. In fact they are talking about the flooding right now.

As far as I know no lives have been lost (except for four of my ducklings which died from to being too wet and cold, they got some kind of a fast acting cold.)

At the moment we have something approaching sunny weather, but looking at the satelite pics we should make the most of it. Far too cold to swim although the sea is crystal clear and mirror calm.

Thanks everybody for always making this an interesting and informative place.

i cannot understand how the Miami NWS Says the dry season has started in south florida and at the same time we may have a tropical disturbance move in with heavy rain ??????? See below.

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Public Information Statement
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version
Previous Version:
[Printable]

000
NOUS42 KMFL 201340
PNSMFL
FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-210400-

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
940 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

...RAINY SEASON COMES TO AN END OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
DURING THE PAST WEEK HAS USHERED IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE THE MIDDLE PART OF LAST WEEK. THIS SUBTLE
BUT IMPORTANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER OVER OUR REGION INDICATES THAT
THE FIVE-MONTH LONG WET SEASON HAS COME TO AN END.

THE 2008 RAINY SEASON BEGAN ON MAY 22 OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, AND ON
MAY 30 OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN SOUTH FLORIDA, AND ENDED OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA ON TUESDAY, OCTOBER 14. THE DURATION OF THE RAINY SEASON
WAS 146 DAYS OVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA AND 138 DAYS OVER INTERIOR AND
WESTERN SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IS SLIGHTLY SHORTER THAN THE NORMAL
DURATION OF 153 DAYS.

RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE 2008 RAINY SEASON AVERAGED AROUND 40 INCHES
OVER METRO SOUTHEAST FLORIDA, WHICH IS ABOUT 5 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL.
HOWEVER, LARGE VARIATIONS IN RAINFALL TOTALS WERE OBSERVED OVER
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. FOR EXAMPLE, FORT LAUDERDALE INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT RECEIVED ALMOST 33 INCHES OF RAIN WHILE THE REDLAND IN
SOUTHWEST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY RECEIVED ALMOST 56 INCHES OF RAIN. THESE
LARGE VARIATIONS ARE RELATIVELY COMMON DUE TO THE MOSTLY RANDOM
NATURE OF SUMMER RAINFALL PATTERNS.

SIMILAR LARGE VARIATIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. NAPLES REGIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED 37.66
INCHES OF RAIN, ALMOST THREE INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL FOR THE RAINY
SEASON TIME PERIOD. AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE RECEIVED MUCH
HIGHER AMOUNTS, WITH MOORE HAVEN ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE LAKE
RECEIVING A WHOPPING 53.37 INCHES, ALMOST 25 INCHES ABOVE THE
NORMAL.

ONE OF THE MAIN FACTORS IN THE WETTER THAN NORMAL 2008 RAINY SEASON
WAS THE INFLUENCE OF TROPICAL STORM FAY IN LATE AUGUST. FAY DUMPED
AS MUCH AS 15 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE MOORE HAVEN AREA, AND AMOUNTS IN
THE 8 TO 10 INCH RANGE WERE COMMON OVER INTERIOR AND WESTERN AREAS
AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. ANOTHER KEY FACTOR
WAS THE LACK OF EXTENDED DRY PERIODS DURING THE SUMMER WHICH ALLOWED
FOR THE RAINFALL DISTRIBUTION TO BE EVENLY SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE
SEASON, AS WELL AS CONTRIBUTING TO LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON
MANY DAYS WHERE THE RAINFALL PATTERNS WERE DOMINATED BY SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES RATHER THAN LARGE-SCALE SYSTEMS SUCH AS TROPICAL CYCLONES
OR STRONG AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE AREAS.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EFFECT OF THE WETTER THAN NORMAL RAINY SEASON
WAS TO DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE LEVEL OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE LEVEL
OF THE LAKE ROSE FROM 9.3 FEET IN MID-JUNE TO JUST OVER 15 FEET BY
EARLY SEPTEMBER. MOST OF THE INCREASE OCCURRED FROM MID AUGUST TO
EARLY SEPTEMBER WHEN THE LAKE ROSE ABOUT 4 FEET, MOSTLY DUE TO
COPIOUS RAINFALL FROM TROPICAL STORM FAY NEAR AND NORTH OF THE LAKE.
AS A RESULT, THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT LINGERED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA SINCE 2007 CAME TO AN END BY AUGUST.

THE ONSET OF THE DRY SEASON MEANS THAT THE NEAR DAILY RAINFALL
PATTERNS CHARACTERISTIC OF THE SUMMER MONTHS COME TO AN END, WITH
MOST OF THE RAINFALL DURING THESE DRIER MONTHS COMING BY WAY OF
FRONTAL SYSTEMS WHICH BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA ON A FAIRLY REGULAR
BASIS BETWEEN NOW AND APRIL.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA DRY SEASON, NOVEMBER 2008 TO MAY
2009, WILL BE RELEASED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI OFFICE
ON THE WEEK OF OCTOBER 27.

FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS, AS WELL AS FOR UPDATED LOCAL WEATHER
FORECASTS AND WARNINGS, PLEASE VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEB SITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

$$
MOLLEDA







Quoting IKE:


It may wind up doing a loop....then back to the north eventually.


I think that's what the GFDL is calling for...a loop before heading northeast.
I agree with the track...I just think it will be a weak tropical storm at best...unless sheer relaxes
Right Ike.
All the forecasts call for 91L to cross some portion of the Yucatan Peninsula at some point.
That in itself will cause weakening....if there is anything to weaken.

After that an emergence into the Gulf under moderate/heavy windshear.

That's not a forecast for much development.
9. See that, I make plans to leave town and all heck can break lose.

Maybe you can rent your house to Cantore while you are gone.
Quoting tea3781:
I agree with the track...I just think it will be a weak tropical storm at best...unless sheer relaxes


With the onset of the dry season, I'd be happy with just getting some rain out it. Brush fire season...ugh!!!
53. IKE
Quoting vortfix:
Right Ike.
All the forecasts call for 91L to cross some portion of the Yucatan Peninsula at some point.
That in itself will cause weakening....if there is anything to weaken.

After that an emergence into the Gulf under moderate/heavy windshear.

That's not a forecast for much development.


May just add moisture to the system heading into the eastern US the end of this week.
hi from Belize first time user.here just lots and lots of rain rivers overflowing and roads impassable down south but so far all is good.been raining on and off here on the island of Ambergris caye since Sept 15 but hanging in there.
Quoting IKE:


May just add moisture to the system heading into the eastern US the end of this week.



An influx of tropical moisture is all I have heard any of the NWS forecasters saying up to now.
47. KendallHurricane
i cannot understand how the Miami NWS Says the dry season has started in south florida and at the same time we may have a tropical disturbance move in with heavy rain

Does this help?

I hope all the bloggers from Belize and the surrounding areas will keep posting their comments here.
That is invaluable information and I am hoping the best for all of you!
Interesting Google earth overlay that shows cruise ship locations. Couple of the ships have bridge cams too. Add this to cloud layer and you can see some are in for a bumpy ride.

LINK
59. 7544
if 91l does cross over the fla pin. what effect will se fla feel from this tia
Another cool Google Earth overlay from windfinder.com
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
9. See that, I make plans to leave town and all heck can break lose.

Maybe you can rent your house to Cantore while you are gone.
...ROTFL Hiexpress... you dirty dog.....


I wonder what that wave off of Africa will do? ... look at the other side of Africa too
Link

Crown weather had some good info on 91L
Looks like the remnants of Omar will be coming ashore here in Norway tonight. Not much rain, but quite a bit of wind!!
SUNSHINE,BLUE SKIES,& FREEDOM

"wherever we want to go, we go. that's what a ship is, you know... It's not just a keel and a hull and sails, that 's what a ship needs...Not what a ship is. What the Black Pearl* really is, is freedom" Captn' Jack Sparrow
*my surfboard

Last post - regards to bonedog if he checks in- I am on my favorite road, heading across my favorite sandbar-Florida, to my next most favorite beach..... the sun is bright, the sky is sooo Blue and Life is Good.

Take care everyone!!!!! yO HOO --it's pirate time
Quoting 7544:
if 91l does cross over the fla pin. what effect will se fla feel from this tia

Not much, if anything! Moving NE, making landfall on Tampa border.
68. XL
Hi

Well Doctor Master's certainly isn't wrong about the heavy rains in Grand Cayman. It is horrible here just now. Reminds me of being back home in Manchester (UK)
69. 7544
another system from the south ?
Link
70. IKE
12Z GFS at 78 hours is further west w/91L...

Hi guys, I am in Playa del Carmen and boy have we had some weather in the last week or so & judging by this sat pic we could be in for more



So is this low something to keep an eye on for awhile or is it going through the inland over Belize and not move n/ne or is it just to early to know.
Latest Caribbean surface analysis:


Photobucket

BigWindOz....it is forecast to remain mostly stationary in the Gulf of Honduras through mid-week.
We'll have to see where it heads once it begins to move out.
46. norfolknob
54. islabonita


Thanks for the info...have been caught up in work so slow to reply.

Been watching your area all week and thinking it is a lot worse for you than will be for us in FL.

islabonita welcome to the blog. Always glad to have folks relaying the local conditions and humanitarian aspects of these systems.

Stay safe down there, hope things improve soon.

-rob
12Z GFS....102 Hours:


Photobucket

76. IKE
12Z GFS has 91L as a more significant system...interesting...at 108 hours...

77. XL
IKE
Being a total novice and unable to interpret any of the charts etc, can you tell me how much more significant and where it is likely to be affecting

Thanks
As always....after seeing the 12Z GFS....I will be very interested in seeing the 12Z ECMWF!
surfmom just stopped by the island real quick,as she is now on her way across the "sandbar" to the other coast,she seems really excited and I'm really happy for her,hopefully she'll get some good surf to play in over there!!!.....and she's got "pooch"w/her....
80. IKE
Quoting XL:
IKE
Being a total novice and unable to interpret any of the charts etc, can you tell me how much more significant and where it is likely to be affecting

Thanks


GFS isn't great with intensity, but you can tell it's a more significant system. Seems to initially go over the Yucatan peninsula, heading west or WNW...then gets drawn north, then eventually NE...making landfall around the big bend of Florida. Spreads rain up into the eastern gulf-coast area, then NNE up into the mid-Atlantic and the NE USA. I imagine the cold-air eventually gets drawn in behind the system and heads into the SE USA.

I would guess a tropical storm, at worst, for 91L, based on that latest GFS run.

Then again, it may not ever achieve a designated status.
81. XL
Thanks for that. Always appreciate the knowledge of other
82. 7544
na too early to call anything right now for 91l models have been jumping all over the place with this one the past few days wait watch and see
83. IKE
There's your cold air in 216 hours on the latest GFS...

Even though its very rainy here in Grand Cayman, the pressure is around 1016mb and rising. I think the main center of 91L is on N coast(inland) of Honduras around 15.5N/86W, you can see it clearly on the Vis sat loop, anyone else notice this?
85. IKE
Quoting stormpetrol:
Even though its very rainy here in Grand Cayman, the pressure is around 1016mb and rising. I think the main center of 91L is on N coast(inland) of Honduras around 15.5N/86W, you can see it clearly on the Vis sat loop, anyone else notice this?


I see it closer to 16N and 87W...not too far off from where you see it. Appears to be moving near due west, for now.
But, but, Tampa games never get rained out. They play in a dome.
Cayman Brac - leaden grey,total cloud cover and very threatening - heavy rain squall @ approx 4.00 AM - nothing since (sure there is more to come though!).
Currently wind out of NE @ approx 5-7 MPH (Highest Gust 27 MPH)and Pressure @ 1013.2 Mb falling at 0.1 mb per hour.
My hopes that flooding in Belize does not get too bad.
91L looks to be moving wsw,I wonder if a new center may start to form?????
Quoting SSideBrac:
Cayman Brac - leaden grey,total cloud cover and very threatening - heavy rain squall @ approx 4.00 AM - nothing since (sure there is more to come though!).
Currently wind out of NE @ approx 5-7 MPH (Highest Gust 27 MPH)and Pressure @ 1013.2 Mb falling at 0.1 mb per hour.
My hopes that flooding in Belize does not get too bad.


Fortunately for them the heaviest convection seems to be in your neighborhood. They really don't need another drop though.

Quoting StormW:
TROPICAL WEATHER SYNOPSIS OCTOBER 20, 2008 ISSUED 11:40 A.M. EDT


Thanks Storm,

Sounds fairly reasonable given what we have to work with.
Quoting RobDaHood:


Fortunately for them the heaviest convection seems to be in your neighborhood. They really don't need another drop though.



Given the nature of the terrain on Cayman Brac, flooding (barring isolated areas) is not really a major issue here (or on Little cayman)- whereas in Grand Cayman - flooding can be wide spread and very significant (a lot due to development).
Belize on the other hand, with rivers and hills is very prone (especially in the South)to severe flooding, bridges cut off etc - know tht from bitter experience many moons ago. Another factor in Belize with heavy rains/flooding is the "mudline" that washed out to the Coral Reefs - not good!
Good afternoon... things looking to be rather challenging as to what it could potentially develop and possible strength of this weekend's system.
if 91l moves fast ne that can dramactically lower the windshear if the windshear is from the sw
Hey everyone.

Not much change so far, guess we'll stay posted!
Quoting SSideBrac:


Given the nature of the terrain on Cayman Brac...


Funny that you mention that, I was just looking at Carib. terrain maps to refresh my memory.

Thanks for info...not much work today, so getting groggy. Gonna walk around and get some fresh air.
NHC has 91L back in yellow, I guess they aren't too impressed with this system for now.
98. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SURFACE PRESSURES
ARE RISING AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...
GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE




Lowered to yellow....

NWS Tampa, FL

MODELS CONTINUE TO VARY WITH THE TIMING...PLACEMENT AND DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM SO WILL AGAIN USE BLEND OF MODELS WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. EXPECT FRONT WITH WEAK LOW MOVING
OVER/THRU THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE
POPS. SHEARED VORT LOBE TO PUSH COLD FRONT THRU THE DEEP SOUTH
SHOVING ENTIRE SFC SYSTEM TO THE E SAT INTO SUN. WITH
CLEARING/COOLER AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION
SUN/MON ON NW-N FLOW. TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EARLY THEN
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ONCE FRONT PASSES THRU THE AREA LATE.
I can never get Navy stuff to post right.

Anyway, either Navy is having a technical issue or they are't tracking 91L anymore.
I don't quite understand what time is associated with those Florida State, phase space maps and images.
Knocked down electric poles in east end St. Croix.




Image credit to St. Croix Source
The 12Z GFDL is not too interested either....it bails out on 91L in the GOM"


Photobucket

most models are pointing at a vigorous storm forming over the carolinas at the end of the week,it should be interesting to see if 91l comes up to add to that system,I could be looking at a pretty good storm up here next weekend.
Good afternoon everyone! This has been a terrific day as it seems I may have met the girl I have been looking for all my life while eating lunch at the campus. So, it will take a crash to ruin my day.

And my day continues to get better as it seems the odds continue to increase against Invest 91L as it seems it will move overland during the next 24 hours and will also meet very high wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico if it doesn't go overland. Due to this and the very disorganized state of this disturbance, I will no longer be tracking it as a Special Tropical Disturbance. Makes my afternoon much easier.

In addition, it seems like the entire Florida peninsula will finally be getting a deep surge of colder air come next week as many computer models continue to forecast a deep trough diving into the northern Gulf, dropping a strong cold front through the state. Can't wait for the cold air to arrive as I perform far better in cold weather than hot weather.


Well, I'll be lurking around from time to time throughout the day. If anyone has any questions, I'll be glad to answer them.
Quoting NEwxguy:
most models are pointing at a vigorous storm forming over the carolinas at the end of the week,it should be interesting to see if 91l comes up to add to that system,I could be looking at a pretty good storm up here next weekend.


LOL - Girlfriend is flying to Buffalo, NY for a Halloween wedding. Told her she's gonna freeze her butt off. After 15 yrs in FL she gets cold if it drops below 68!
105. cchsweatherman

Congrats, man! Hope it works out for ya.
20/1745 UTC 16.2N 87.2W TOO WEAK 91L -- Atlantic Ocean

cchs - I have a question if you don't mind.

How do ULL's like the one out there react to a trough?

Is it the same fashion as a storm?

i.e., does it get pulled N and E like a storm or would it "dive" under it?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning
12:00 PM UTC October 20 2008
======================================

At 17:30pm IST, Depression (ARB02-2008) over the southwest Arabian Sea moved westward and lays over southwest Arabian Sea near 10.0N 56.5E or about 700 kms east-southeast of Alula, Somalia and 800 kms south-southeast of Salalah, Oman.

Satellite imageries indicat persistent organised convection in association with the syste. The intensity of the system is T1.5. Sustained 3 minute sustaned winds near the center is 20-25 knots with a central pressure of 1002 hPa. State of sea is moderate to rough around the system's center.

Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.5 and 16N and west of 56E and adjoining east Somalia and Gulf of Aden. The deep convection is sheared to the west of the system. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -75C to -80C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 10-20 knots and past 24 hours shear tendency is -5 to -10 knots near and to northwest of the system. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which is roughly run along 16N. The sea surface temperatures near the system and over the region to the west of the system is about 28C.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to intensify further and move in a west-northwestly direction towards extreme north Somalia coast and Gulf of Aden.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (1430z 20OCT)
===============================================
An area of convection (98B/ARB02) located near 9.9N 55.2E or 255 NM east-southeast of Cape Guardafui, Somalia. Recent animated multispectral satellite imagery shows deep convection persisting on the western periphery of an elongated low level circulation also evident in a 0945z AMSR-E Pass. This disturbance lies equatorward of an upper level ridge axis, in an area of moderate easterly vertical wind shear and strong westward diffluence aloft. Synoptic observation taken near the center of circulation indicates surface pressures of 1002 MB and winds of 25-30 knots.

Considering these observations the maximun sustianed winds near the center is 27-32 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1000 MB. Based on marginally favorable upper level conditions and observational data indicating a strengthening circulation, the potential for this depression to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert is now in effect until 1430z 21OCT.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number EIGHTEEN
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 02-20082009
18:00 PM UTC October 20 2008
==========================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Asma (993 hPa) located at 11.5S 61.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts up to 60 knots. The system is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Gale-force winds (35kts)
=======================
within 30 NM radius from the center extending locally up to 50 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle.

Near Gale-Force Winds (30kts)
================
Within 30 NM radius from the center extending locally up to 300 NM radius from the center in the southern semi-circle, mainly in the southwestern quadrant.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 11.2S 59.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
24 HRS: 11.0S 56.7E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
48 HRS: 11.1S 52.3E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 12.5S 47.4E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================

The system has weakened during the day. Microwave imagery AQUA 20/0939z reveals a low level circulation center north of the deep convection, which is very limited in spatial coverage.

The upper level divergence remains good, and the easterly vertical wind shear is forecasted to keep on decreasing during the next days as the system tracks along an upper level ridge axis - ridge located to the east. Nevertheless, the intensification seems to be limited by insufficient sea surface temperatures (of the order of 26C.) as the system tracks westward, the ocean heat potential decreases and the system should weaken gradually

ASMA tracks westward along the northern edge of a building subtropical ridge located to the south, towards the northern tip of Madagascar
Quoting RobDaHood:


LOL - Girlfriend is flying to Buffalo, NY for a Halloween wedding. Told her she's gonna freeze her butt off. After 15 yrs in FL she gets cold if it drops below 68!


I can assure you its not going to be anywhere near 68
look at the big blob of convection by south of nw cuba
109. Seastep

Seastep, the boy is obviously smitten...He's SO outta here! - LOL

aahhh! young love.
looks like the nor easter off the east coast is trying to become subtropical
113. NEwxguy

LMAO!
Quoting Seastep:
cchs - I have a question if you don't mind.

How do ULL's like the one out there react to a trough?

Is it the same fashion as a storm?

i.e., does it get pulled N and E like a storm or would it "dive" under it?


ULL (Upper Level Lows) usually create and move troughs and usually are only affected by the jet stream. Thats why forecasting and watching the motion of ULLS are so important since they create shear on all surface features.
I'm going to say that 91L will become TD 17 once it gets into the Gulf of Mexico, it's too close to land for now.
118. cchsweatherman

cchs, no offense intended by post 115, I'm happy that you're happy!
Quoting RobDaHood:
118. cchsweatherman

cchs, no offense intended by post 115, I'm happy that you're happy!


No sweat man. During the past couple weeks, I have become a more easy-going person on this blog. I don't know where offense could even be taken. Thanks by the way.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Good afternoon everyone! This has been a terrific day as it seems I may have met the girl I have been looking for all my life while eating lunch at the campus. So, it will take a crash to ruin my day.


Hey, congrats man. Hope it goes well. :)
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Good afternoon everyone! This has been a terrific day as it seems I may have met the girl I have been looking for all my life while eating lunch at the campus. So, it will take a crash to ruin my day.

And my day continues to get better as it seems the odds continue to increase against Invest 91L as it seems it will move overland during the next 24 hours and will also meet very high wind shear in the Gulf of Mexico if it doesn't go overland. Due to this and the very disorganized state of this disturbance, I will no longer be tracking it as a Special Tropical Disturbance. Makes my afternoon much easier.

In addition, it seems like the entire Florida peninsula will finally be getting a deep surge of colder air come next week as many computer models continue to forecast a deep trough diving into the northern Gulf, dropping a strong cold front through the state. Can't wait for the cold air to arrive as I perform far better in cold weather than hot weather.


Well, I'll be lurking around from time to time throughout the day. If anyone has any questions, I'll be glad to answer them.


Definitely! The European Model seems to be the most accurate lately and they are the most aggressive in cooling us down.
Hey, Cotillion!

Since you're into trivia, (which I suck at) What storm formed within less than 5 degrees of the equator, defying conventional wisdom, within the last 10 years?
125. KBH
Quoting cchsweatherman:


ULL (Upper Level Lows) usually create and move troughs and usually are only affected by the jet stream. Thats why forecasting and watching the motion of ULLS are so important since they create shear on all surface features.

Thanks chs, I been asking all the time and everyone says it is nothing! That upper level trough is already affecting B'dos with heavy rains downpours
Quoting KBH:

Thanks chs, I been asking all the time and everyone says it is nothing! That upper level trough is already affecting B'dos with heavy rains downpours


Forgot to mention that upper-level highs can affect the movement of upper-level lows as evidence by tropical systems. Tropical systems with upper-level highs can fend off shear since upper-level highs "push" away high wind shear typically caused by upper-level lows and upper-level troughs.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Hey, Cotillion!

Since you're into trivia, (which I suck at) What storm formed within less than 5 degrees of the equator, defying conventional wisdom, within the last 10 years?


Off the top of my head, I believe it was Ivan.

And hey dude. :)
this is billybadbird and i speak to dr. masters and the weatherunderground community. all of you know my love of storms. when you live where i live you have no choice but to love them or leave them - i am sure that many of you have not known much about galveston and it's surrounding islands except for allison - a tropical storm with little wind that came across and stalled and dumped flooding rains for many consecutive days over houston. i would say from allison until 2005 we had maybe 10 waves or depressions or tropical systems come across our shore.
it's a common thing -not an if but a when
and: i would say at he risk of upsetting others that life was frankly pretty boring since hurricane alicia - my first real hurricane in my daredevil years of storm
chasing. alicia did major damage- but i played in the streets- i surfed in the gulf - i had a garage sale on the highway with dishes that would fly like a frisbee angering those who were fleeing to safety angering them further when i dropped my prices to " half off - everything must go" - some people just have no humor! some people would call the police who would say "raney, do you just like pissing everyone off?" people called me billybadass back then - but i have since cleaned up my act and my name for the sake of my family who might meet someone and hear - oh, you're billy badass's father - or mother! my poor parents- but they raised me on an island that was once as it is today- unpopulated- undeveloped - 1 little store and 1 little restaurant and 1 school where i proudly graduated the top 5 in my class of 6! i grew up playing in the ocean - swimming with dolphins porpises and seagulls who swam with me as i swam with them. then the people came- my desolate island made way to million dollar homes and tourist who litter my part of the earth and fisherman whose broken string was tossed into the ocean with their beer bottles and sode cans and
into the wings of the birds i swam with before i began to rescue the ones who could be saved and said my prayers to god before i wrang the necks of the ones who could not. i have cried wails of tears many a day and night over each and every bird whose life was taken at the hands of man. i believe each tear i shed was to god and his creatures and i was blessed beyond blessings for not one tear being a tear of pity or a why me - until the day came that i was blessed with my house directly on the ocean and directly besides my birds who came to know my house as a
safe haven where they were fed on china plates - upside down rice rice- simply cooked rice - then cooled - then turned upside down plopped onto the plate in the form of a beautiful cake. there once was seagulls then pigeons then grackle - and with god's blessings i would feed each and every bird to keep them away from the elements of man. nothing more - nothing less - billybadass turned bird - a simply boring- non existant existance - why me lord- what have i ever done TO DESERVE EVEN 1 OF THE BLESSINGS I HAVE. then came christmas - snow on christmas day - a miracle and a post on my underground blog that i will never ever change because i love god and i can go to my underground blog to see a miracle- or a present - sent to me from heaven. when i post things- as today - i come here - to dr masters or auburn or storm junkie and vortex - my friends who have done among all the many things one thing that keeps my heart pure- tell me that i am one of their own...i am just now learning and reading the well wishes and prayers being said to and for me while i was on the balcony trapped in a storm that was a tad bit more dangerous than rita and humberto and edourdo that i just finished playing in before gustav threated with nothing more than a disappointing 50 mile wind with no rain----back to back to back all of them- 7 feet storm surges that were nothing - the nothing that led me to stay for a 12 foot surge- what's another 5 feet- except the ten feet of water which submerged the island before the 12 feet came. we all know the story after that- i thought i was going to die - i thought i was going to live- then die then live- and live i did - and the memories will never fail me - and the courage only strengthened and come the next storm will only come another burst of adrenaline. that is me - that is my life - that is what everyone knows- - i am sorry to to those who died - i know the lady gayle who washed up 50 miles away - and i know the lady they haven't found - who lived a life as simple as mine- rode her bike
to the store for dog food while i
rode mine for bread so i could make bread balls and throw them into the air to the seagulls who had a broken leg or were missing a leg and could not land and eat rice with the other birds because they could not stand. if there were a bread ball league i would have a trophy - maybe 20 - 1 for each season i was a champion
breadball quarterback. i am sorry for those birds too. none survived. i am sorry for the ones who did survive but were trapped in the bushes with broken wings unable for me to rescue for the water was too high. i am sorry for leaving them against my will being forced off the island by the military and texas rangers the coast guard the blackhawks and the police and into a city where i know nothing and no one - actually my third city now- being
the same bum i have always been - just not in the location where it is okay to be the bum that i am. i know that my heart is pure - i know that i am blessed - and i know that when someone has a job to do - they do it - and my job was to be the best bum on the beach- and it's the best job in the world to have - it requires nothing more than the love of god..............which brings me here today- to
say thank you to dr. masters who sent money from his pocket to get me through this city living- the horns - the pollution- the trains- the noise - the hurried people who have time for nothing but stress and more stress. his money was used to get me to my doggy- sammy, a 14 year old chihuahua who was sent to florida with my sister to save him from my foolishness- he has played with me in all the storms and i almost kept him for ike and if i would we would both be dead- on my way to the fort i never reached i let go first the gallon of milk i was drinking in my right hand- then i let go of my bike - then my boots - and if
i had my doggy i would never have let him go - i would have simply gone with him to the end - yet we are together and we are both extremely unhappy in the city together until this friday where vortex and storm junkie and auburn and robbi- saddlegait have come together to take me home where i am happy - where i can live on my island that still has no water or lights. an island that has peace- tranquility - beautiful sunrises and sunsets and moon rises and moonsets that speak to me and my heart and the birds who are my company with my peace. all of the people just mentioned- in a community where i am considered one of their own along with the the fellows at Link
have come together to take me home. but not just me - they have come together to bring a whole community back home- a community that is not populated enough to be remembered when people help people. my island has never fully recovered from rita- high island has never fully recovered from humberto and gilchrist had not even began to try to recover from edourdo and will never recover as ike has swept the beach away where the highway and the ocean meet. there are still people there- the diehards- the hardheads - the people who are only these things because they do not have the resources to be anywhere but where they are. the people like me who are more happy with sunsets than money. i am going home to be with them again- i won't be near them in any way but heart and spirit - but i will know they are there and they will know they aren't forgotten when Link
arrives this weekend with a relief truck full of supplies to help them through this journey - i hope i speak for portlight - that they are committed not to let one itty bitty island who is not even on the map be forgotten when it already was before the storm- i know however, that i speak for my island- it won't be the supplies - it won't be the food or the water the things that are needed and will be so greatly appreciated when they come that will touch the hearts of my people - it will be the people themselves who came that will touch their heart more. it will be the hugs and the handshaking and the sorry's and the thank you's and the knowing that they - like me - my people who are there will have just met another community where they are one of our own! just one favor storm and vortex- if you will- have alot of kleenex tissue with you when you come. god bless you all- and: if anyone is interested in some dishes- i have them- i never made a dime off that garage sale. this is billy bad bird- but i ain't really no bad bird that's just my name
Quoting weatherbro:


Definitely! The European Model seems to be the most accurate lately and they are the most aggressive in cooling us down.


Agreed. It seems like all computer models carve out quite a deep, vigorous trough through the Eastern United States as a powerful ridge builds in the West. Based upon the model data, South Florida won't reach the 80s come Tuesday. This will certainly be a nice change to the oppressive tropical heat and humidity we have had for several months now.
Quoting Cotillion:


Off the top of my head, I believe it was Ivan.

And hey dude. :)


Not sure Ivan was quite that far south, maybe, but the one I'm thinking of Became a Typhoon and formed even further south...I believe it is the record holder in that respect.
Quoting RobDaHood:


Not sure Ivan was quite that far south, maybe, but the one I'm thinking of Became a Typhoon and formed even further south...I believe it is the record holder in that respect.


Vamei then. (Thought you were referring to the Atlantic only.)
any links for the nor easter
The NHC issued its Hurricane Bertha post storm analysis. They raised the estimated peak intensity from 105 knots to 110 knots, making it a powerful category 3.
Quoting extreme236:
The NHC issued its Hurricane Bertha post storm analysis. They raised the estimated peak intensity from 105 knots to 110 knots, making it a powerful category 3.


No Cat 4? Guess they didn't go with the Dvorak readings.
Quoting Cotillion:


Vamei then. (Thought you were referring to the Atlantic only.)


correct, you retain my respect (knew you could do it.)
Quoting RobDaHood:


correct, you retain my respect (knew you could do it.)


I must say though, my knowledge on any other basins excepting the Atlantic is less than stellar. Needs some improvement, especially. :P
Quoting Cotillion:


I must say though, my knowledge on any other basins excepting the Atlantic is less than stellar. Needs some improvement, especially. :P


You're still my goto person for any historical questions. Still astounds me that a Britt has such an encyclopaedic knowlege of hurricanes...still think you ask the cat (LOL)
Out for the day. Will check back in in the morning. Have a great evening everyone.
Pressures are starting to fall in the Western Caribbean again, wonder if this trend continues if we'll see 91L back in the orange circle by 8 or 11pm tonight.
Question:

Hurricane Vince was the first known example of a storm hitting Spain. True or false?
Oh yes!
Thanks Billybadbird!

We're going to get you back home man!!
Quoting RobDaHood:


You're still my goto person for any historical questions. Still astounds me that a Britt has such an encyclopaedic knowlege of hurricanes...still think you ask the cat (LOL)


Dang, busted...

Though seriously, I've just trawled through some of the old data from time to time and recalled some stuff. If someone asks a question that I don't know, I'll go and research it. Someone needs to play historian, huh? Lol.

(History albeit not of a cyclones, is part of my current Bachelor's anyhow.)
Quoting Cotillion:
Question:

Hurricane Vince was the first known example of a storm hitting Spain. True or false?


no expert but I'll say false. Think there was one in the mid 1800s
Time to cut back on whatever it is you're doing Billy. ;-)
Quoting Cotillion:


No Cat 4? Guess they didn't go with the Dvorak readings.


Well they reached 115kts but that was with the ADT, and it was only for a relatively short time that those numbers were that high, so 110 kts sounds reasonable.
128. I hope you get back to your island, billy. I needed a kleenex just reading your tale. I can't begin to imagine living it.
Sorry, was off for a while...

115. RobDaHood - LOL.

CCHS - Thanks much and all the best with that.
Quoting RobDaHood:


no expert but I'll say false. Think there was one in the mid 1800s


1842, correct. Here's what Wiki said...

"X. A cyclone, first detected southwest of Madeira on October 24, passed the island on October 26, moving northeast towards the Iberian Peninsula. It struck southern Spain on October 29, and moved inland as far as Madrid. It peaked at 965 mbar (28.5 inHg) as a category 2 hurricane near Madeira on October 26."

True or false: The first definite recording of a hurricane was in 1492.
140 - Cotillion

False, Frances - Oct 22-30, 1992.
142 Cotillion

History albeit not of a cyclones, is part of my current Bachelor's anyhow

Mine was poli-sci, have always been a history buff, especially really ancient stuff an naval history.
Quoting RTLSNK:
140 - Cotillion

False, Frances - Oct 22-30, 1992.


I believe that hit Spain as an extratropical storm, meaning it does not count in this instance as an example (Granted I should've specified 'storm' better rather than relying on the implicit assumption); however 'false' is the correct answer.
152. IKE
6-10 day temperature outlook....



6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 26 - 30 2008

TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A STRONG TROUGH IS DEPICTED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGING FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTH OF
GREENLAND. MOST OF TODAYS MODELS ALSO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART RELIES MOST HEAVILY ON THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. THIS BLEND CHART DEPICTS A TRIO OF
STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALY CENTERS LOCATED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, THE WESTERN
CONUS, AND SOUTH OF GREENLAND. A STRONG NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALY CENTER IS
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.
Looks like theres a good chance at a PSA upgrade to Cat 4 for Omar.

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN PENETRATING THE EYE OF
OMAR AND MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 959 MB AND TWO SPOT WINDS OF 132
AND 124 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE CREW COULD NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE
EYEWALL DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH TURBULENCE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
OSCILLATED BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT
TIME. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT OMAR REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS EARLIER.
Quoting RobDaHood:
142 Cotillion

History albeit not of a cyclones, is part of my current Bachelor's anyhow

Mine was poli-sci, have always been a history buff, especially really ancient stuff an naval history.


Political Science?

(Mine's Cont. History & Politics. Though 'Contemporary' always amuses me at how subjective it is. For example, this year I'm taking a module that stretches back to 1494.)
Quoting Cotillion:


Vamei then. (Thought you were referring to the Atlantic only.)


Tropical Cyclone Agni came within 50 mi of the equator, but it formed farther north than Vamei.
True - columbus
I hope all the bloggers from Belize and the surrounding areas will keep posting their comments here.
That is invaluable information and I am hoping the best for all of you!
Political Science?

(Mine's Cont. History & Politics. Though 'Contemporary' always amuses me at how subjective it is. For example, this year I'm taking a module that stretches back to 1494.)

Yes, and subjective is one reason I loose interest after about 1800
Quoting Cotillion:
Question:

Hurricane Vince was the first known example of a storm hitting Spain. True or false?


True... It was also the first storm to hit mainland Europe, also. Hurricane Faith made landfall in the Faeroe Islands, north of England.
Quoting RobDaHood:
Political Science?

(Mine's Cont. History & Politics. Though 'Contemporary' always amuses me at how subjective it is. For example, this year I'm taking a module that stretches back to 1494.)

Yes, and subjective is one reason I loose interest after about 1800


The industrial revolution is so blah...
LOL :)
Quoting RobDaHood:
True - columbus


Partially right. False in terms of the date, but it was Columbus who submitted the first 'definite' report in 1495. (The first suspected was a year previously. However, that's also up for debate. I'm personally of the thinking that the Aztecs, or Mayans, or Seminoles etc. must've had a good idea what a hurricane was.)
Quoting Cotillion:


1842, correct. Here's what Wiki said...

"X. A cyclone, first detected southwest of Madeira on October 24, passed the island on October 26, moving northeast towards the Iberian Peninsula. It struck southern Spain on October 29, and moved inland as far as Madrid. It peaked at 965 mbar (28.5 inHg) as a category 2 hurricane near Madeira on October 26."

True or false: The first definite recording of a hurricane was in 1492.


Hurricane or Typhoon, because two typhoons turned the Mongols away from Japan the two times they tried to invade.
Quoting hurristat:


The industrial revolution is so blah...


LOL yes, although I love old machinery...steam engines, aircraft, etc
Quoting hurristat:


Hurricane or Typhoon, because two typhoons turned the Mongols away from Japan the two times they tried to invade.


Hurricane. Not referring to the 'Kamikaze' of the 12th century. Events and recordings of typhoons are probably dated before Christ, I'd imagine.
91L's center relocating over water just offshore of guatamala now drifting NNW...
Quoting RobDaHood:


LOL yes, although I love old machinery...steam engines, aircraft, etc


Who built the first working railway steam engine?

(If you say Stephenson, you're liable for a slap. :D)


91L's current look.
YAY billy, thanx for talking to us from your heart! we want you back to your sunsets and birds, too!


jo
The 18Z extrapolated forward motion of 91L over the past 12 hours is just East of due South:


Photobucket

Hmm.

Wonder if this is true...

1722 September Hurricane:

* Moved through Lesser Antilles 11 September.
* Landfall in Louisiana on 23 September with 15 hours of hurricane winds and an 8-foot storm surge
* Many ships lost in Louisiana
* Eight-foot storm surge caused flooding in New Orleans, leading to removal of territorial capital to Baton Rouge.
* Three days of flooding rains in South Carolina around 27 September.
Quoting Cotillion:


Who built the first working railway steam engine?

(If you say Stephenson, you're liable for a slap. :D)


Richard Trevithick, Andrew Vivian
Quoting IKE:
6-10 day temperature outlook....



6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 26 - 30 2008

TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING AN AMPLIFIED 500-HPA
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. A STRONG TROUGH IS DEPICTED OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS WITH STRONG RIDGING FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN CONUS AND SOUTH OF
GREENLAND. MOST OF TODAYS MODELS ALSO SHOW AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA. TODAY'S 500-HPA BLEND CHART RELIES MOST HEAVILY ON THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS FROM BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS. THIS BLEND CHART DEPICTS A TRIO OF
STRONG POSITIVE 500-HPA ANOMALY CENTERS LOCATED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, THE WESTERN
CONUS, AND SOUTH OF GREENLAND. A STRONG NEGATIVE 500-HPA ANOMALY CENTER IS
FORECAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
BELOW TO MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WEST.

very interesting ike
Quoting Cotillion:
Hmm.

Wonder if this is true...

1722 September Hurricane:

* Moved through Lesser Antilles 11 September.
* Landfall in Louisiana on 23 September with 15 hours of hurricane winds and an 8-foot storm surge
* Many ships lost in Louisiana
* Eight-foot storm surge caused flooding in New Orleans, leading to removal of territorial capital to Baton Rouge.
* Three days of flooding rains in South Carolina around 27 September.


Doesn't surprise me, after Katrina and the like.
175. melly
Cotillion.Stanley, or maybe 3 dog night
Quoting Cotillion:


Who built the first working railway steam engine?

(If you say Stephenson, you're liable for a slap. :D)


The brit's laid all the groundwork for modern steam power, driven by the need to pump water from mines. 1st locomotive that I am aware of too. US took the concepts and ran with them...history of steam goes back to Alexandria I believe. I saw a steam powered device that used jets of steam to spin an armature around. If I can find it I'll send you a link.
sorry, computer problems
Quoting Cotillion:


Who built the first working railway steam engine?

(If you say Stephenson, you're liable for a slap. :D)

Its not Lionel?
175. melly

Hey melly, where you been hiding?
Quoting RobDaHood:


The brit's laid all the groundwork for modern steam power, driven by the need to pump water from mines. 1st locomotive that I am aware of too. US took the concepts and ran with them...history of steam goes back to Alexandria I believe. I saw a steam powered device that used jets of steam to spin an armature around. If I can find it I'll send you a link.


I think he means the one that moves on tracks, not just the engine that powers it, because, yes, the Egyptians had that first.
181. melly
Rob.......Did you peek, tell me the truth????
Quoting hurristat:


I think he means the one that moves on tracks, not just the engine that powers it, because, yes, the Egyptians had that first.


Right, the guy was a British military engineer, can't think of his name. In fact I think there were two who were competing to build the first successful locomotive so England could build a railway.
183. melly
You guys are confusing me.I know who invented the crapper.
Quoting melly:
Rob.......Did you peek, tell me the truth????


No, I recently read a book about it. about a year ago.
Quoting RobDaHood:


Right, the guy was a British military engineer, can't think of his name. In fact I think there were two who were competing to build the first successful locomotive so England could build a railway.


Trevithick and Vivian??
anyone who has written off 91L,has made a mistake,I persnonally am suprised we had it an invest so early as sheer is very high just north of the system,however as stated in docs blog,the sheer is expected to relax within 36 hrs now and organization to the point of a td or ts was not forcast by any models until atleast tues night/wed. morning as 91L slowly moves north or nnw,which motion has now started....additionally I am NOT forcasting to 91L's center to move in land,and if anything it may just brush the east tip of the yucatan staying over the water,turning into a strong TS thurs/friday time period,then moving North or NNE crossing anywhere from just north of tampa to key west and then combining w/a low moving across the ohio vally towards the carolina coastline,I believe that 91L is mother nature's last whoo-ra,and the GOM should be closed for hurricane season,as the fronts begin to clear the peninsula on a regular basis......
tell us melly!
188. GBlet
Billy, it still sounds like the most beautiful place on earth. I can't wait to get down there next summer, it's been too long.
189. melly
John Crapper
I think my enthusiasm for old machinery and history has gotten us way off topic...

back to the weather
Quoting RobDaHood:
I think my enthusiasm for old machinery and history has gotten us way off topic...

back to the weather


Plus Cotillion is gone.:( 91L doesn't look as good as it used to.
I'm thinking of Trevithick especially.

(A fellow Cornishman, we don't have much chance to celebrate these things...)

193. melly
I remember going to the Greene County Fair in Xenia Ohio when I was very young. My dad loved it. They had these steam engine trackors that would go. HmpHmp Hmp. all day long. I didn't get excited , but my dad sure did.
194. melly
trackors ¿
Quoting stillwaiting:
anyone who has written off 91L,has made a mistake,I persnonally am suprised we had it an invest so early as sheer is very high just north of the system,however as stated in docs blog,the sheer is expected to relax within 36 hrs now and organization to the point of a td or ts was not forcast by any models until atleast tues night/wed. morning as 91L slowly moves north or nnw,which motion has now started....additionally I am NOT forcasting to 91L's center to move in land,and if anything it may just brush the east tip of the yucatan staying over the water,turning into a strong TS thurs/friday time period,then moving North or NNE crossing anywhere from just north of tampa to key west and then combining w/a low moving across the ohio vally towards the carolina coastline,I believe that 91L is mother nature's last whoo-ra,and the GOM should be closed for hurricane season,as the fronts begin to clear the peninsula on a regular basis......


I still think 91L will develop and bring TS force winds to Florida, but the models seem to transition the system to more of a cold-core system as it interacts with the approaching frontal system.
91L will be looking better over the next 12hrs as convection forming and is trying to wrap around whatever center is just off coast,91L is now drifting northward and trying to strenghten as evident on visable sat. loops.....
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Looks like theres a good chance at a PSA upgrade to Cat 4 for Omar.

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OMAR DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152008
500 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2008

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE HAS BEEN PENETRATING THE EYE OF
OMAR AND MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 959 MB AND TWO SPOT WINDS OF 132
AND 124 KT AT FLIGHT LEVEL. THE CREW COULD NOT SAMPLE THE ENTIRE
EYEWALL DUE TO EXTREMELY HIGH TURBULENCE. OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS
OSCILLATED BETWEEN 6.5 AND 7.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE DURING THAT
TIME. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT OMAR REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 115
KNOTS EARLIER.


If you read that paragraph there isn't much need for a change in intensity for the PSA, cause they say the intensity is estimated to have reached 115 knots, basically stating it was a category four earlier (clearly showed in the flight level winds and ADT raw t numbers).
I'm saying 91L will go back to orange tonight, make landfall tommorow, go to gulf tuesday into wed. become a td and then a ts on wed. or thu, and make landfall friday or saturday. Just a guess. :-)
IMO 91L will not develop. Too much shear nearby, with that frontal boundary keeping that shear persistent for now. Looks rather unimpressive right now.
91L looks a little better organized with deeper convection firing off near the low pressure center.
and it looks as if the area of strong sheer(which has pushed 91L southward) is exiting to the NE....which will allow 91L to drift poleward....
You can see that mass of convection pushed NE away from the center because of the shear.
Also a little fun fact, the NHC put out their PSA for TS Karina in the EPAC and found that it developed from the same tropical wave that spawned Hurricane Gustav in the Atlantic.
Definitely some deeper convection near the center now.

RGB Loop
Later gang. I'll be lurking later tonight.
you noticed that too teddy????,I've learned not to put much faith into sheer forcasts past 72hrs....especially durning the fall and spring as things "up there" change much to quickly.....if sheer drops we COULD have a cat. 1 in the gulf,not likely,but not out of the question as sometimes cold front interaction to the north of systems actually vent them in the UL,helping to strenghten a Low pressure center ...jmo
Quoting Cotillion:
I'm thinking of Trevithick especially.

(A fellow Cornishman, we don't have much chance to celebrate these things...)



You're right, 20 mi track in London. Though Stephenson would probably be seen as 1st successful. Found the book I was looking for.

How We Got Here:A Silicon Valley and Wall Street Primer - A History of Technology and Markets by Andy Kessler.

Really cool book about the history of technology and economics. Easy read, Highly recommended.
Hmm, most models are directing 91L at Florida. Models are also hinting that very strong NW winds could hit Southern Ontario...that's where I live...next Monday morning. That could give us some snow, and also some parts of S. Ontario could get snow tomorrow, and also around and prior to Halloween. Also, watch TC Asma heading towards Madagascar. Also, elsewhere in the Caribbean and in the Central Atlantic may be worth watching in the next two weeks or so. Also, there's an intense extratropical system off New England that the models have been predicting a week back.
extreme: that convection was not pushed by sheer to the NE,if you look at a 24hr loop it is actually a influx of moisture that has "joined in",that convection came from the SE since yesterday....91L is a very loose system right now,as sheer relaxes abit and a southerly flow starts to insue,that will all change.....the ill-defined system right now is just "loose" and should tighten up in the next 48-72hrs.....
influx of moisture noticed on the WV loop to the north of cuba's western tip....door is now open!!!!.....that shows the SW sheer is relaxing and sheer should be starting to drop,I prefer WV for figuring out the most current sheer info....
Quoting RobDaHood:


You're right, 20 mi track in London. Though Stephenson would probably be seen as 1st successful. Found the book I was looking for.

How We Got Here:A Silicon Valley and Wall Street Primer - A History of Technology and Markets by Andy Kessler.

Really cool book about the history of technology and economics. Easy read, Highly recommended.


You said we wouldn't get off topic.
Quoting hurristat:


You said we wouldn't get off topic.


Sorry, thought you'd like to know.

I'll try to be good.
Quoting RobDaHood:


Sorry, thought you'd like to know.

I'll try to be good.


Thanks for the recommendation. I'll have to read the book sometime... 2 and a half hours 'til next update.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Hmm, most models are directing 91L at Florida. Models are also hinting that very strong NW winds could hit Southern Ontario...that's where I live...next Monday morning. That could give us some snow, and also some parts of S. Ontario could get snow tomorrow, and also around and prior to Halloween. Also, watch TC Asma heading towards Madagascar. Also, elsewhere in the Caribbean and in the Central Atlantic may be worth watching in the next two weeks or so. Also, there's an intense extratropical system off New England that the models have been predicting a week back.
lots of ghost storms can be shown by the models during the transitional period between seasons so lets not get the undies in a knot
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND
TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN SEA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

SEAS GIVEN AS SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT...WHICH IS THE AVERAGE
HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES. INDIVIDUAL WAVES MAY
BE MORE THAN TWICE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT.

AMZ089-210330-
SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES 1012 MB IN GULF OF HONDURAS REMAINS
GENERALLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEK. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL DISSIPATES THROUGH THROUGH MID WEEK. A
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 70W MOVES INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY LATE
WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE AREA NEAR 45W MOVES
APPROACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WED AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BY FRI.

Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
lots of ghost storms can be shown by the models during the transitional period between seasons so lets not get the undies in a knot


Agreed, as a native Floridian I know to watch the carib. this time of year, but don't get worked up over every little model run...can't afford the stress.
Latest Caribbean surface analysis:


Photobucket

219. 7544
the wave south of cuba is the one to watch it might effect fla more than 91l will imo
The circulation of 91L is very close or practically right over Roatan, convection is flaring up near the circulation now also.
Winds are out of the WSW in Roatan with a pressure 1011mb and falling, earlier it was 1012.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Winds are out of the WSW in Roatan with a pressure 1011mb and falling, earlier it was 1012.


Really bad for Belize and I hate that, but in terms of overall development of this system, maybe a good thing. If it's finally moving NW then maybe it gets over land and fizzles out. I worry more about it sitting over water and churning up more convection ie:rain for that region than I do about possible eventual effect for us in FL
Quoting RobDaHood:


Really bad for Belize and I hate that, but in terms of overall development of this system, maybe a good thing. If it's finally moving NW then maybe it gets over land and fizzles out. I worry more about it sitting over water and churning up more convection ie:rain for that region than I do about possible eventual effect for us in FL


Very bad for Belize, my wife is from Belize and she talked with her sister yesterday, apparently the southern districts in Belize are very flooded and some people are in shelters or misplaced from their homes.
Quoting stormpetrol:
Winds are out of the WSW in Roatan with a pressure 1011mb and falling, earlier it was 1012.


Interesting. Not sure how accurate these weather stations are, but 1008 in Belize City:

Link
Quoting stormpetrol:


Very bad for Belize, my wife is from Belize and she talked with her sister yesterday, apparently the southern districts in Belize are very flooded and some people are in shelters or misplaced from their homes.


That is what I have heard from post here today. Prayers are with your wife's family. Hope this gets out of there soon.
Actually, that's the station WU uses for the current conditions in Belize City.
Must be wrong... TWC and intellicast both have the pressure there at 1012mb.
The nor'easter near New England has an eye-like feature.
Quoting Seastep:
Actually, that's the station WU uses for the current conditions in Belize City.

Quoting Seastep:
Must be wrong... TWC and intellicast both have the pressure there at 1012mb.


No one is perfect :(
stormpetrol - agree, though on position for the most part. Think shortwave shows the center is right around 16.7N/86.7W. Directly under that burst of convection.

Link
The nor easter is looking like a hurricane
RGB's showing it pretty good right now too.

Link

I'm out. Poker night. :)
Its phenomenal. The flood waters have done great damage to homes, livestock, and agriculture. Its amazing to witness the flood waves as they move from west to east. the flood waters are receding slowly but the waters in Belize City are beginning to rise fast. These levels have far surpassed those we had with Hurricane Mitch. Sorry to see that apparent organization of convestion but the country is in a state of awareness - so that's a positive. Nice to know people out there care about us in little Belize!
Quoting belizeweatherfan:
Its phenomenal. The flood waters have done great damage to homes, livestock, and agriculture. Its amazing to witness the flood waves as they move from west to east. the flood waters are receding slowly but the waters in Belize City are beginning to rise fast. These levels have far surpassed those we had with Hurricane Mitch. Sorry to see that apparent organization of convestion but the country is in a state of awareness - so that's a positive. Nice to know people out there care about us in little Belize!


I've known people in and from Belize and they've all been great! Beautiful Country. I'm sorry to hear about the damage but glad to know that people are safe. Hope this is out of there soon for you and please keep us posted as to conditions and that you are okay afterwards.

-rob
Quoting isiah23:
The nor easter is looking like a hurricane


I said it first. 227.
Quoting RobDaHood:


I've known people in and from Belize and they've all been great! Beautiful Country. I'm sorry to hear about the damage but glad to know that people are safe. Hope this is out of there soon for you and please keep us posted as to conditions and that you are okay afterwards.

-rob


Everyone in Belize stay safe. All 250,000 of you.

Night all.
goodnite stat
Quoting hurristat:


I said it first. 227.

actually 228 lol
careful not to offend, regardless of their population, they're good people.
So what is the thoughts on 91 and FL. Is it looking like it won't be anymore than just a heavy rainmaker or is there still models/thinking on this thing developing.
Hi. Lots of rain in Grand Cayman today. Over 4" so far and looks like alot more to come.
Quoting naplesdreamer28:
So what is the thoughts on 91 and FL. Is it looking like it won't be anymore than just a heavy rainmaker or is there still models/thinking on this thing developing.


Good news is it seems to be (maybe) moving. As far as guidance goes, as of 1800Z I don't see anything taking it over a moderate TS. I still say track guidance ain't worth much until/if it starts moving this way.
Rob, what about the wave south of cuba. The next one to enter the environment?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Hi. Lots of rain in Grand Cayman today. Over 4" so far and looks like alot more to come.


You guys have really had the convection pumping down there today. From WV Loop I kind of expect it to start fading a bit though.
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Rob, what about the wave south of cuba. The next one to enter the environment?


Has looked impressive, but my feeling is maybe not.
Quoting hurristat:


Everyone in Belize stay safe. All 250,000 of you.

Night all.


Thanks for the good wishes! We are near 280,000 now (wow!) ;) Will give you all an update tomorrow if anything else interesting happens....back to lurking!
Plywood,

to better answer your question, That area is (at least when I checked last night) the last really big heat concentration in the carib. Hence the convection build-up, but I don't really think I've seen any signs of organization. Will keep an eye on it, but not really feeling worried about it.

I am pretty good with sat stuff, surface maps, and models, but a lot of times with me it just boils down to gut feeling. This year my gut has been right 100 percent, but I'm very wary cause I know one day it will be wrong!
More After Math Hurricane Omar Pictures of St. Croix




















































GOES-12 Atmospheric Imagery Link

These images are primarily for use in tropical storm monitoring. There are several areas to choose from providing a large-scale view of the Atlantic, down to the Gulf of Mexico. During hurricane season, the hurricanes page provides a variety of GOES atmospheric products to help monitor the active storms.

RTAP Image of the Month Link
Hurricane Season 2008 Link

Current Conditions for the N. Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico :


Hurricane Season Synopsis 2008 Link
GOES Water Vapor Loop of Gulf and Caribbean,LARGE Link
GOM Upper Level Winds...Link

GOM CoastWatch HomePage
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Link
the wave at 50 is flaring up.
Now that activity on the blog is starting to be turned over to the winter followers, I have a question for these forecasters. Do any of you see snow flying in the foreseeable future in the Eastern Nebraska area? As some of you might remember that were here regularly last January, I purchased a convertible that I needed to drive home then. Obviously, now it's come to the time of year that I have to think about storing it away before the snow flies. (I just want to wait until the last possible second!) So, anyone want to give me an idea on how few days I have left? Thanks!!
255. IKE
18Z GFS...Link
256. IKE
Long-term discussion from Mobile,AL...

"Long term...(thursday through sunday)...the surface low will become
occluded on Thursday as it looses its vertical tilt with the upper
system. Meanwhile global models agree on a weak surface low developing
from the flare up of convection in the western Caribbean Sea. This
low is expected to move northward into the central Gulf as the upper
trough and associated cold front advance eastward toward the Gulf
Coast. Not much development is expected with this system as shear
will be increasing across the north central Gulf as the upper trough
approaches. However increasing Gulf moisture combined with the
approaching cold front will bring increasing chances of showers and
thunderstorms to the forecast Thursday into early Friday. As the
cold front moves eastward...the Gulf low will be pushed
northeastward and up the East Coast through the end of the week. A
cooler and drier airmass will return to the central Gulf Coast in
the wake of the front with highs in the low to middle 70s and lows
ranging from the upper 40s inland to middle 50s closer to the coast."
Quoting 7544:
the wave south of cuba is the one to watch it might effect fla more than 91l will imo


you mean south of hispanola?
258. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS CONTINUES
TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO
BE DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD LAND...AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS
NOT EXPECTED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BERG/PASCH
259. IKE
10-day forcast for lake worth, fl. has a high of 74 and a low of 56 for a week from wednesday...hope it holds true!!!
258. IKE 7:43 PM

Would like to have heard Avila say it but I'll take what I can get.

Still, wish it would hurry up and get outta there for the sake of our friends in Belize.
262. IKE
18Z NOGAPS...Link
surface maps indicate that 91L is now moving NNW,as I stated a couple hrs ago,by tomorrow night I expect some organization to start to begin....as it looks like the UL enviornment should begin to become marginally favorable....
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
10-day forcast for lake worth, fl. has a high of 74 and a low of 56 for a week from wednesday...hope it holds true!!!


Based upon what I'm seeing in the computer models, that may be somewhat conservative. They may have to trend even lower with the forecasted temps just watching how deep and strong this trough will be.
265. IKE
18Z GFDL peaks it at 65 knots in the SE and southern GOM...Link
that would be great cchs...as a native born floridian...time for footie pajamas..lol
267. IKE
18Z HWRF keeps it weak until landfall near the Florida panhandle...Link
It's all jumbled but there maybe something trying to organize near 18n, 82w but I dont know if it is far enough away from the primary circulation around sw Honduras.
269. Vero1
000
AXNT20 KNHC 202347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2008

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW PERSISTS OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N87W. THIS SYSTEM IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN SEA...BUT MAINLY FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 78W-82W. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM JUST NORTH OF THE
LOW CENTER. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE RISING IN THIS AREA AND
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE 24-48 HOURS. AN
UPPER-LEVEL HIGH LOCATED SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA DOMINATES MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW.
ACCORDING TO THE GFS MODEL...THIS LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR THE BELIZE COAST DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...THEN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO BY THU.
PRES GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS SFC LOW AND HIGH PRES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS
PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG ELY WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN JUST SOUTH OF CUBA AND ALSO SOUTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO THE NE PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN EARLIER QSCAT PASS SHOWED UNCONTAMINATED
WIND BARS OF 15 TO 20 KT. IN ADDITION...NOAA BUOY 42056 IN THE
NW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO REPORTING ELY WINDS OF 20 KT. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. EXPECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 12-24
HOURS.
not an expert at all here..but looking at the various sat. loops...i see no northerly componet at all with 91
271. Vero1
...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE EMERGED OFF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA THIS
MORNING. ITS AXIS IS CURRENTLY ALONG 20W SOUTH OF 13N MOVING
WEST AT 10-15 KT. LATEST VIS IMAGERY FOR THE DAY REVEALS A
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND A DISTINCT INVERTED-V CLOUD
SIGNATURE AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. THIS FEATURE SHOWS UP VERY WELL
ON THE SSMI-TPW PRODUCT WHERE A BULGE OF MOISTURE IS SEEN.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 200 NM BEHIND THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 11N-14N AND NEAR 8N24W.

Evening IKE
What are your thoughts for the SE coast of N.Carolina for this weekend? Thinking of fishing and wind is the most important factor?
Thanks
273. IKE
I think it's gonna take til Wed-Thursday before this gets headed toward the north at a decent clip. I wouldn't be shocked to see a moderate TS out of this in the end. Areas affected look to be from the Florida panhandle to the west coast of Florida.

There's my guess :)

GFDL brings it to 65 knots, which is right at a low end cat 1.
All buy that 269 post, thanks.
275. Vero1
Quoting MissNadia:
Evening IKE
What are your thoughts for the SE coast of N.Carolina for this weekend? Thinking of fishing and wind is the most important factor?
Thanks

heeeeeere we go!!!!,sheer already begining to relax over 91L ahead of schedule as evident on the current WV loop and there has been persistent convection building near the center for 3hrs now,I have a feeling we could see some decent development over night as the center has drifted back over water and the sheer is becoming a more favorable.....
277. IKE
Quoting MissNadia:
Evening IKE
What are your thoughts for the SE coast of N.Carolina for this weekend? Thinking of fishing and wind is the most important factor?
Thanks


Good chance of rain according to the Cape Hatteras forecast...

Friday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Lows in the lower 60s.

Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs in the upper 60s.

Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of showers. Lows in the lower 60s.

Sunday
Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s.
278. Vero1
Ah i really doupt anything significant comes out of 91L but a rainy end of the week for florida.Crazy shear once this gets out into the gulf will quickly dismiss any chances at this being a significant problem for florida.

Have a great night! Adrian
280. Vero1
Hi MissNadia
Thanks for #275 VERO1.. it showes an occluded front off the coast..I'm not smart enough to reduce that to wind...IKE , the rain doesn't matter its the wind which can mean big waves and they aren't good
Quoting IKE:
I think it's gonna take til Wed-Thursday before this gets headed toward the north at a decent clip. I wouldn't be shocked to see a moderate TS out of this in the end. Areas affected look to be from the Florida panhandle to the west coast of Florida.

There's my guess :)

GFDL brings it to 65 knots, which is right at a low end cat 1.



Seem to be likely Paloma in the GOM, GFDL is very accurate and is showing a thread to western FLA of a posible Cat 1. Tampa? World Series?
Quoting hurricane23:
Ah i really doupt anything significant comes out of 91L but a rainy end of the week for florida.Crazy shear once this gets out into the gulf which will quickly dismiss any chances at this being a significant problem for florida.

Have a great night! Adrian
Glad to hear it and think you are right.
285. IKE
Quoting Vero1:


That looks about right....if it did make it to the Florida panhandle, I'll eat crow.

The rain more be more beneficial for the areas that look to be receiving some.
evening Rob..seems like you have had a busy day on here!!!
Quoting MissNadia:
evening Rob..seems like you have had a busy day on here!!!

Na, just a slow day for work. Nice for a monday, got to chill & enjoy the weather.

Not expecting big winds off NC 10-15 unless we get Paloma, which I kinda doubt, then anything goes.
Just a question will that front over the atlantic are going to kill the ULL in the cent atlantic?
289. IKE
Quoting antonio28:



Seem to be likely Paloma in the GOM, GFDL is very accurate and is showing a thread to western FLA of a posible Cat 1. Tampa? World Series?


WS is Wednesday and Thursday night. Tampa should be okay.

Problem may be in Philadelphia on Saturday....

Saturday
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Highs in the lower 60s.

Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of rain. Lows in the upper 40s.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the lower 60s.


They usually don't go to a 50% chance of rain 5 days out unless it's probably likely pending future model runs. That Saturday game may get rained out.
My opinion on 91L- I don't think it'll develop into much, thinking it'll be over the Yucatan in a day or two and then with the Gulf of Mexico's high shear it shouldn't be able to develop.
291. GBlet
Grey, the forecast coming out of Great Bend, Ks, shows we have a chance of snow Wed. night Thur. morning if that helps any.
Rob
I see where you are a naval history buff...test..who was Adm.Nelson's flag captain during the battle of Trafalga?
293. IKE
Amarillo,TX.....

Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Windy. Lows in the lower 40s. South winds 10 to 15 mph becoming west 25 to 35 mph with gusts to around 50 mph after midnight.


Very windy in the Rockies. Strong system.
I am just a weather fan but I learn a lot here and one thing that I learn is relay in the models, and they are been consistent with 91L for the past few days and tracks it towards FLA.
according to the sfwmd model map...only two models bring it to florida.
296. IKE
Quoting antonio28:
I am just a weather fan but I learn a lot here and one thing that I learn is relay in the models, and they are been consistent with 91L for the past few days and tracks it towards FLA.


When you have the GFS and GFDL showing something it's a possibility of happening....

18Z GFS at 96 hours....

Quoting MissNadia:
Rob
I see where you are a naval history buff...test..who was Adm.Nelson's flag captain during the battle of Trafalga?


Sorry, distracted by Steven Segal movie,

want to say Sutton
Sir Edward Berry?
Quoting RobDaHood:


Sorry, distracted by Steven Segal movie,

want to say Sutton

NO..anyone else?
Okay, Nadia,

embarrassed enough, who was it?
Quoting IKE:


When you have the GFS and GFDL showing something it's a possibility of happening....

18Z GFS at 96 hours....




I didn't see the Low in the cent atlantic!
Capt'n Hardy of HMS Victory.. he was the one who kissed Nelson on the cheek as he died!
Quoting MissNadia:
Capt'n Hardy of HMS Victory.. he was the one who kissed Nelson on the cheek as he died!


right, forgot that.


One battle I should have known...:(
304. IKE
Quoting antonio28:



I didn't see the Low in the cent atlantic!


It's a ULL..."A large
upper-level low near 21n51w"
appears not to be an issue for Cozumel - we will have a busy reschedule of some of the ships leaving for the other areas of Belize etc. Good for Cozumel!
Is anyone else getting voteing calls. I bet I'v had 8 tonight.. I just tell them I'm vote for Pam Anderson for office...any office!
gotta go, back in a few hrs.
308. IKE
Quoting MissNadia:
Is anyone else getting voteing calls. I bet I'v had 8 tonight.. I just tell them I'm vote for Pam Anderson for office...any office!


I haven't gotten any...so far. I'll be glad when it's over.
306- I've gotten four tonight, it's what I get for being in a swing state like Ohio always is. The funny part? I'll be 6 weeks too young to vote.
Obama stopping personal appearances to go back to Hawaii to be by the side of his dying grandmother.
Good evening... back again!!!... this is my take on the current situation with 91L.

Shear is decreasing and dry air is starting to get modified which is currently sitting in the GOM... specially on the eastern side of this dry air region where shear is starting to decrease due to a departing/weakening jet and the weakening of the deep High on the W GOM.

I personally don't think 91L will be moving W... but should meander for a bit ( 24HR ) or so before resuming a NW motion. Looking at the current rate of weaking of the High in the W GOM I wouldn't hink it will be that strong once it slides off to the E to be able to induce a sharp Westerly move on 91L... I guess if this high does stay strong enough then the later might happen but a bit doubtful.

This is a tricky situation since the models are having a hard time forecasting the amount of shear that will be present... but as we approach the weekend we shall see if 91L will be able to fight off the shear like Omar did or if it will give in and provide additional energy to the developing C CONUS system.

Looking forward to those 00Z packages...
There it is right in the most sw corner of the Caribbean. Disregard my previous post looks like it is organizing again. The models could be correct as usual,so far south may develop a little more than expected.
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site

Invest ... 91L
Present Satellite, Area of Interest 91L
I have to do paper work and then my beauty sleep!...nite
Quoting MissNadia:
I have to do paper work and then my beauty sleep!...nite


Nite
Hi Folks

4.08 inches of rain in the Caymans since midnight last night. I hope 91L does not hang around much longer.
Quoting GBlet:
Grey, the forecast coming out of Great Bend, Ks, shows we have a chance of snow Wed. night Thur. morning if that helps any.

Thank you very much for your response. I'll take what you told me under advisement. I apparently am not going to see any other responses, but I shouldn't be surprised. I rarely do get any response. I've just never seemed to make a dent into the esteemed group entitled to responses to my posts.

So, GBlet, I thank you for your answer and wish you the best with any questions you have in this blog. Myself, I freakin' give up. I was told once that the reason I didn't get answers to my question was because the blog was too active. Well, apparently not. The blog is pretty much running at a snail's pace now, so apparently, no one wants to bother. Therefore, neither will I. I just won't bother period. You all can just go ahead and keep talking about the stock market and baseball instead. I'll move on to where I might get half a notice.
Quoting kmanislander:
Hi Folks

4.08 inches of rain in the Caymans since midnight last night. I hope 91L does not hang around much longer.


Ouch... unfortunately it seems that it should be hanging around for a couple more days... thankfully the larger rain makers stayed to your S and E.
91 looking bad tonight..heading inland..high shear...florida..cool weather a comin!
Hi Kman.
Everyone seems to be getting rain, but me ! 4" sounds good.
We had flooding in the north, and south, and I got 1/2" over the weekend LOL
But I do have a plague of several different types of ants trying to get into the house. What does it mean ?
Get to the pest-killer emporium, is what it means.....
Hope all is well with you and yours.

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
91 looking bad tonight..heading inland..high shear...florida..cool weather a comin!


Thanks for jinxing us.. Lol.
lol Teddy...even you have to agree something significant is not going to affect florida under the current circumstances...i know..thing could change, but as of now, let's look forward to the cooler weather..
Quoting pottery:
Hi Kman.
Everyone seems to be getting rain, but me ! 4" sounds good.
We had flooding in the north, and south, and I got 1/2" over the weekend LOL
But I do have a plague of several different types of ants trying to get into the house. What does it mean ?
Get to the pest-killer emporium, is what it means.....
Hope all is well with you and yours.



Hi Pottery,

When I got up this morning we had received 1.35 inches overnight. Since 7 a.m. and about noon we got the rest to make 4.08 !. I have not seen rain like that in a long time.

But, in a few weeks the dry season will start again until next May.
Quoting Greyelf:

Thank you very much for your response. I'll take what you told me under advisement. I apparently am not going to see any other responses, but I shouldn't be surprised. I rarely do get any response. I've just never seemed to make a dent into the esteemed group entitled to responses to my posts.

So, GBlet, I thank you for your answer and wish you the best with any questions you have in this blog. Myself, I freakin' give up. I was told once that the reason I didn't get answers to my question was because the blog was too active. Well, apparently not. The blog is pretty much running at a snail's pace now, so apparently, no one wants to bother. Therefore, neither will I. I just won't bother period. You all can just go ahead and keep talking about the stock market and baseball instead. I'll move on to where I might get half a notice.

Greyelf this is my first try at a quote. Go to the top of the page. Right under where you sign in is a place where you can put in a zip code. put it in dnd it will give you a five day forcast for the area. Scroll down. On the right it will give a more detailed forcast. Hope this helps.
Jesse
Does any know what 91l is going to do? Models are all over the place. What is the time for any motion, in any direction for this wave?
I'm out for tonight. The hurricane season is winding down and now we will have to watch the tail end of early season cold fronts that dip down into the NW and SW Caribbean.

After mid November, pretty much over until 2009.
327. XL
Hi Kman

I was dreadful up here all day. Reminded me of being back home in Manchester (UK). Seems we have more rain to come over the next couple of days. The only saving grace for me is it created some air movement and my air con was bust!!
Quoting XL:
Hi Kman

I was dreadful up here all day. Reminded me of being back home in Manchester (UK). Seems we have more rain to come over the next couple of days. The only saving grace for me is it created some air movement and my air con was bust!!


I seem to recall you are in the West Bay area ?
329. XL
That's right. Apparently the roads were pretty bad first thing. How was South Sound. We used to live down there (Sunrise) and it was always bad when it rained.
Quoting XL:
That's right. Apparently the roads were pretty bad first thing. How was South Sound. We used to live down there (Sunrise) and it was always bad when it rained.


Not bad in SS all things considered. My back yard has about a foot of water but the whistling ducks love it LOL

A pair of ducks with 5 young chicks have taken up residence there. I used to feed about 30 of them every day but now the male of the pair will not let any other duck enter the property.

Very hilarious as he has taken over half an acre of land and even threatens me when I go to put food out for him and his family LMAO

Good thing he doesn't have teeth !!
331. XL
We used to have a guard duck so I understand exactly what you are saying. They can be very protective.
Well I'm impressed to have survived the season with my sanity intact. I was very worried throughout, but from all the info on here I have learnt that all I can do is be prepared and act sensibly - or get the heck out.
I have found this site to be invaluable. My hubby thinks I am obsessed - but hey, I'm British. We are all obsessed with the weather!
Quoting XL:
We used to have a guard duck so I understand exactly what you are saying. They can be very protective.
Well I'm impressed to have survived the season with my sanity intact. I was very worried throughout, but from all the info on here I have learnt that all I can do is be prepared and act sensibly - or get the heck out.
I have found this site to be invaluable. My hubby thinks I am obsessed - but hey, I'm British. We are all obsessed with the weather!


Well you will soon be able to relax for another 6 months !.

Hard to live in the tropics and not be obsessed with the weather.
333. XL
Well that's me done.
Goodnight all
Good night all.

Hopefully sunshine tomorrow.
Kman. I am not looking forward to this dry seasom. I am tired of the fires. Been trying for 5 years, with the Forestry Div., and others, to get people around here to stop the burning. No success.
It is creating bad land. Around here is all clay. If you heat it up enough, it becomes Ceramic after a few yrs. Only thing that will grow is grass. Fire fuel.
I need a vacation.. the weather here sucks
Hi Orca.
The Caribbean awaits you......
LOL
Quoting pottery:
Kman. I am not looking forward to this dry seasom. I am tired of the fires. Been trying for 5 years, with the Forestry Div., and others, to get people around here to stop the burning. No success.
It is creating bad land. Around here is all clay. If you heat it up enough, it becomes Ceramic after a few yrs. Only thing that will grow is grass. Fire fuel.


Trade you.. here is our weather
Hi Orca
Quoting pottery:
Hi Orca.
The Caribbean awaits you......
LOL


Umm why would I go there, hehe did you just read the tourist report you just wrote?
Quoting foggymyst:
Hi Orca


Hiya Foggy... did you see they changed the track to 91L.. its going to your place now via the CMC
No thanks, Orca. I complain, but I am not a masochist ! (sp?)
Sounds a little chilly there. Humid. 100% ?
Not my cup of tea.....
eheheheh
Quoting pottery:
No thanks, Orca. I complain, but I am not a masochist ! (sp?)
Sounds a little chilly there. Humid. 100% ?
Not my cup of tea.....


I don't think its humidity like you mean humidity...

Mind you.. it feels pretty darn cold.

Mind you.. great golfing weather if its not raining
Golf at 5 degrees celcius ??
Madness.
You guys are as hardy as they come.
This is the course close to my place.. and these guys are the same one who bought the Tampa Hockey Franchise... so I assume at a future date.. they will become the Victoria Cougars again
Quoting pottery:
Golf at 5 degrees celcius ??
Madness.
You guys are as hardy as they come.


Keep a mickey of rum in the golf bag.. on really cold days.. a 40 :)
Yeah, that looks to be a really nice area, Orca.
But I fear that your winter is too long for me.
Orca, heading to your site now to check out the model.
A 40 in 9 holes, and you can still see which ball to hit ?
I guess it doesnt matter at that stage.
Sounds good to me......
Quoting pottery:
Yeah, that looks to be a really nice area, Orca.
But I fear that your winter is too long for me.


here is a shock for you....
Victoria BC, Southern Vancouver Island.. is the only other place in the world (other then the Med).. that has a Mediterranean climate
353. DDR
Quoting kmanislander:
Hi Folks

4.08 inches of rain in the Caymans since midnight last night. I hope 91L does not hang around much longer.

Hi kman,Wow! thats alot of rain, now imagine whatwould happen if 4 inches fell in under an hours time.
Orca, seems like not much development, right? Remember my friend, I am a novice. Btw, Happy Anniversary.
Quoting Orcasystems:


here is a shock for you....
Victoria BC, Southern Vancouver Island.. is the one of only other place in the world (other then the Med).. that has a Mediterranean climate


Let me add.. the furthest north, there are others.. but none this far North
Yes, I have heard that the climate there is great.
I believe it is a warm Pacific current, and the mountains behind doing that.?
Not like Oregon, that has plenty rain.
Quoting foggymyst:
Orca, seems like not much development, right? Remember my friend, I am a novice. Btw, Happy Anniversary.


thank you Foggy :)
Almost half way thru the second life sentence.
Quoting pottery:
Yes, I have heard that the climate there is great.
I believe it is a warm Pacific current, and the mountains behind doing that.?
Not like Oregon, that has plenty rain.


Victoria is in the rain shadow of the Olympic mountains, 50 miles North of here is a different story, and 40 miles west and you are in a rain forest
Hi DDR.
We had NO rain here today. I was in POS, raining there at noon, all the way to near Chaguanas.
Where I am is blighted.....
Major floods in the south again yesterday.
360. KBH
Quoting pottery:
Hi Kman.
Everyone seems to be getting rain, but me ! 4" sounds good.
We had flooding in the north, and south, and I got 1/2" over the weekend LOL
But I do have a plague of several different types of ants trying to get into the house. What does it mean ?
Get to the pest-killer emporium, is what it means.....
Hope all is well with you and yours.


that's right pottery, rains have come again in B'dos + severe lightning!!
Be nice Orca! Remember though you have your halo, you must maintain it! Anyhow, how about an answer to my question, sir?
brb SWMBO'ed Bellowed
363. DDR
Quoting pottery:
Hi DDR.
We had NO rain here today. I was in POS, raining there at noon, all the way to near Chaguanas.
Where I am is blighted.....
Major floods in the south again yesterday.

Hi,well i went to pos today and there wasnt much,half an inch fell this afternoon.Maybe you should move up north lol,its been raining every day since early last week.
OK, my geography is rusty. I thought you were west of the Olympics.
KBH. Thats rough man.
I seem to be in a rain shadow here.....
Quoting foggymyst:
Orca, seems like not much development, right? Remember my friend, I am a novice. Btw, Happy Anniversary.


Right now its all dependant on the sheer ... if its as strong as forecast... it may make it to a TS, no more.
Quoting pottery:
OK, my geography is rusty. I thought you were west of the Olympics.


Victoria is almost Due east of the olympics.
maybe closer to ENE of the Olympics.
369. DDR
Quoting pottery:
KBH. Thats rough man.
I seem to be in a rain shadow here.....

There always tomorrow :)
Goodnight all,zzzzz......
greetings from the centre of the universe
Hi, Hi. Nice APOD. Thanks.
hello pottery
Hi, Keeper. You are in Trinidad ??
i wish i was
LOL Keeper. It was the center of the universe thing. Couldnt resist.
The season is looking very quiet now. 91L is being sheared.
The Atl is dead, except for another wave that does not look hopeful.
Winter is early ??
Anyway, its late here. 11:30.
I'm gone
Keep well......
rain showers all day today
getting cool here tonight waitin on the 60 to 70 kmh wind from the nw
temp fallin to 2 or 3 may even see some wet snow flurries right now still around 10 11 celius but the front is about to past by within next hr
winds should start howling soon after that winters on its way tonight 6 tomorrow for a high thats celius with winds 40 gusting to 60 kmh most of the day wind chills of -2 -3 celius is what its going to feel like tomorrow Brrr.
g'night brother
Sounds dread.
See you tomorow.
im so bored!ahhhh! no canes!!! W.E
Complete Refresh Blog
Mirror Site
i think paloma will be named in 36 hours and at least cat 1 when it hits tampa, possibly cat 2, thats just my opinion, florida needs to watch out for a big storm and hurricane season is far from over
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Warning
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB02-2008
08:30 AM IST October 21 2008
======================================

At 3:00am UTC, Depression (ARB02-2008) over southwest Arabian Sea moved west-northwestward and intensified into a Deep Depression. The Deep Depression lays centered over southwest Arabian Sea near 10.5N 54.5E or 450 kms east-southeast of Alula, Somalia, 700 kms southeast of Riyan, Yeman, and 700 kms south of Salalah, Oman.

Satellite imageries indicate further improvement in organization in convection in association with the system. The intensity of the system is T2.0 with sustained 3 minute winds of 30 knots with gusts up to 35 knots. and a central pressure of 1000 hPa. State of sea is very rough to high around the system center.

Associated broken intense to very intense convection is seen over the Arabian Sea between 7.5N and 14.0N and west of 54.0E and adjoining east Somalia and Gulf of Aden. The deep convection is sheared to the west of the center of the system. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about 75C to 80C. Vertical wind shear of horizontal wind over the region is 10-20 knots and past 24 hour shear tendency is -10 to -20 knots to the northwest of the system. The system lies to the south of the upper tropospheric ridge which roughly runds along 17N.

Considering all the above, the system is likely to move in a west-northwestly direction towards south Yeman coast across the Gulf of Aden, skirting north Somalia coast tomorrow between 0600 and 0900 UTC

The sea surface temperatures near the system and over the region to the west of the system is 27-28C. AS the system approaches toward north Somalia coast, it is likely to interact with land surface and entrainment of cold air is also likely, hence further intensification of the Deep Depression is not expected.
Good morning...
I don't why people are saying 91L won't become a depression. It will most likely become a depression. It just has to get into the GOM because it's too close to land right now.
Quoting hurricanemaniac123:
I don't why people are saying 91L won't become a depression. It will most likely become a depression. It just has to get into the GOM because it's too close to land right now.


Well... for now all the models are developing a system ranging from a TD to a minimal Hur.

If we were to take the mean on these models... it would be safe to say that once it gets its act together it could potentially be a minimal to medium stregth TS.

Currently and based on SFC observations it looks a new low (1011MB) is trying to develop about 80NM N of Honduras where the deeper mosture is and there's a good swath of 20KTS winds on the NE side about 100NM S of Caymand, Islands.

We'll see if this is truly happening throughout the day today. Personally, I won't play this system down since we'll be having almost the same dynamics with had with Omar but to a lesser stregth and if the transfer of engergy between the trough in the C CONUS and the developing low down in the S GOM/NW Carib plays just right we could be looking at an interesting situation.

Heck even the 00Z UKMET/ECMWF/CMC are showing a more defined system than before... not saying stronger but a more stacked system. 06Z GFS/NOGAPS still pointing towards further development as it approaches FL on Friday Night into Saturday.
387. IKE
00Z UKMET...Link
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
330 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2008


THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING SEVERAL GLOBAL
MODELS FLOPPING BETWEEN A MORE DEFINED AREA OF LOWER SURFACE
PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK...WHICH
WOULD POINT TO A MUCH HIGHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...AND A MORE SHEARED CIRCULATION PULLED ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THEN ALONG THE COASTLINE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES. THERE NOW SEEMS TO BE BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF CLOSER TO THE LATTER SOLUTION...BRINGING AN ELONGATED LOW
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE FRIDAY WITH A
TRAILING FRONT BEING DRAGGED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS BY THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. MOS POPS HAVE THUS BEEN DRIVEN
UPWARD...WITH THE GFS NOW LIKELY FROM AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING THAT WAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. CAN NOT ARGUE THE GENERAL
TREND UPWARD...BUT THE GFS SEEM EXCESSIVE IN ITS MOISTURE FIELDS
LOCALLY IN ADDITION TO KEEPING THE BEST UPPER SUPPORT DISPLACED WELL
TO OUR NORTH. THUS...MAY NUDGE OUR RAIN CHANCE UP BY 10 PERCENT FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT NOT INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY.
AND...THE GFS HANGS UP A RIBBON OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG THE KEYS ALL
THE WAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE CLEANLY DRIVING DRIER AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS TO THOSE LATER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. BUT EXPECT JUST
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
640 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2008


DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD OVER THE WESTERN ALAN TIC TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE U.S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM
THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE NEAR CUBA ACROSS THE
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
BE POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THERE IS STILL
SOME DISPARITY IN THE SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE ABOUT THE BROAD LOW
FORECAST OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE
REGION SHOULD BRING THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
REGARDLESS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION BEGINNING ACROSS
THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

Good morning all.

I am just pointing out by my two previous posts that even the local NWS offices are not in agreement yet regarding 91L.

Latest Caribbean surface analysis:


Photobucket

392. IKE
From this mornings Tallahassee,FL. discussion....

"The GFS...UKMET...ECMWF...and GFDL all
forecast cyclogenesis over the east central Gulf of Mexico as a
piece of a tropical disturbance (currently near the eastern
Yucatan peninsula) interacts with a 500 mb short wave rotating
around the base of the large cutoff low over the plains.
This
would lead to a wet and windy pattern for our region...with quantitative precipitation forecast of
1 to 2 inches (and locally higher amounts) along the Florida Panhandle
coast Thursday and Friday. If the GFS solution is correct...the strong
0-1 km vertical wind shear along the warm front (near the Gulf
coast) would indicate at least a marginal severe weather threat...but
instability would be limited over land."
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2008

OVERALL...THE GFS AND THE NEW ECMWF HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER
AGREEMENT AND ARE NOW LEANING TO A MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEY BRING THIS
FEATURE NORTH AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CWA FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE
ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES UP
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. ADDITIONALLY...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL LEAD TO ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS TIME DUE TO GUSTY EASTERLY
WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. AS A RESULT...WE WILL GENERALLY TAKE A
BLEND BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF WITH RESPECT TO WIND AND POPS THROUGH
THIS TIME. WILL ALSO KEEP ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE GRIDS AS THE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE WEAK SIDE.
Morning IKE, and Vortfix...

Once it starts moving away from land which should start to do soon, we'll then see what spins up.
Once it starts moving away from land which should start to do soon, we'll then see what spins

Yep....but it won't be away from the Yucatan and in the GOM for another day and a half at least.
So, don't wear yourselves out watching every frame of the loops just yet!
397. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:
Morning IKE, and Vortfix...

Once it starts moving away from land which should start to do soon, we'll then see what spins up.


It looks like it's going to happen. I'm 80 miles east of Pensacola...I may get some wind w/rain.

Looks like I may have to eat crow since I said the season was over here. According to the latest model runs I may be wrong.
Quoting IKE:


It looks like it's going to happen. I'm 80 miles east of Pensacola...I may get some wind w/rain.

Looks like I may have to eat crow since I said the season was over here. According to the latest model runs I may be wrong.


LMAO!!!
Quoting vortfix:
Once it starts moving away from land which should start to do soon, we'll then see what spins

Yep....but it won't be away from the Yucatan and in the GOM for another day and a half at least.
So, don't wear yourselves out watching every frame of the loops just yet!


LOL... thankfully I'm not at that point quite yet... :P
400. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:


LMAO!!!


It'll teach me to keep my pie-hole shut about it being over here. LOL.
Don't start grilling that crow yet Ike....it's only Tuesday morning!

402. IKE
Quoting vortfix:
Don't start grilling that crow yet Ike....it's only Tuesday morning!



True...and it will probably take another 36-48 hours for something to get started...if it does. Odds are more likely it will.
Winter has begun here in W NY today falling temps we are already in the 40s expected to fall all the way to lower 30s by sunset and stay there all day expecting snow tonight too.
last night lyon twc got his graph out like four storms that hit the conus in late oct. what was surprising to me was their intensity cat 2s even good luck

The track of 91L is dependant on the position of the trough moving down......it's all a timing issue again.

Hehe... 401.

Well yesterday when I as pulling SFC info for the C America region... saw a report of 100kts winds E of belize... lol I almost stained my pants. Hey that's why you gotta do your QA on the data.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Winter has begun here in W NY today falling temps we are already in the 40s expected to fall all the way to lower 30s by sunset and stay there all day expecting snow tonight too.


Nice... who knows... you might end up with a white christmas.
408. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
last night lyon twc got his graph out like four storms that hit the conus in late oct. what was surprising to me was their intensity cat 2s even good luck


Yeah...I saw that. He even thought a low would form...as best I can remember, he wasn't sure if it would be truly tropical in nature.
Quoting WxLogic:


Nice... who knows... you might end up with a white christmas.


here in W NY if we don't have a white Christmas I am stunned
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2008


CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W.
BROAD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AROUND THIS LOW...COMBINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE TO THE SE OF AN UPPER LEVEL WIND SPEED
MAXIMUM IN MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...IS SUPPORTING
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION PARTICULARLY NE OF
THE SURFACE LOW FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 83W-89W. THIS INCLUDES
PORTIONS OF THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS OF SE
MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND.
HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

what is interesting about late season storms most know this but anyway you dont have to have 80 water temp to substain these cyclones. it can be lower because the air temp is cooler. nevertheless i think you still have to have 80 in the developmental stage.
Kayman... should be in for another 4 to 6 inches of rain ontop of the 4 inches he got yesterday.
413. IKE
This buoy had gusts to 33 knots an hour ago.
Morning all!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
328 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2008


WED-FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
IN WAKE OF DEPARTING LOW...WITH SUFFICIENT PGRAD TO ALLOW BREEZY
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE EAST COAST ON THURSDAY. ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO BACKING AND INCREASING FLOW IN ADVANCE OF
GINORMOUS LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL U.S. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
BE DRAWN UP OVER THE THE PENINSULA FROM CARIB REGION AS THIS
OCCURS. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND PRECIP CHANCES CAN BE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY BUT THINK GFS IS TOO AGGRESSIVE ON LOW
PRES DEVELOPMENT AND ASSOCIATED WIND/POP FIELDS SO WILL UNDERCUT
IN BOTH AREAS. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL HOLD MINS
A LITTLE HIGHER BY THUR/FRI MORNINGS WITH MID/UPPER 60S AND SOME
LOWER 70S NEAR THE EAST COAST. HAVE WORDED POPS FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A THUNDER MENTION ON FRI WITH WARM FRONT TYPE
BOUNDARY LIFTING THROUGH THE PENINSULA AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.

Quoting IKE:
This buoy had gusts to 33 knots an hour ago.


If the current TS cluster persists and we see some additional cooling the cloud tops... we could be looking at a new SFC low development closer to the deep convection as the current SFC obs seem to be pointing out.
417. IKE
Water temps 75-100 miles south of the Florida panhandle are near 80. Right at the coast they've cooled to the mid 70's.
Morning... Cot...
419. IKE
Quoting WxLogic:


If the current TS cluster persists and we see some additional cooling the cloud tops... we could be looking at a new SFC low development closer to the deep convection as the current SFC obs seem to be pointing out.


I was thinking that too. May see signs of it today and tonight.
one thing for sure the area of convection in the nw carib is a persistant beast.
Good morning.
Nice day here. No sign of rain. Although, some would be nice.
There is nothing in the Atl. to interest me this am. Thats good, and not unusual.
Looks like 91L may become a rain event for Cuba and Florida. Kman can confirm the rain-rates......
415. Vortfix

Yeap... in my opinion the MLB office didn't want go into any specific details in regards this... something is telling me they're waiting on the 12Z before their discussion will mention any models trends and comments of their own. Of course they've been nudging up the rain and TS chances for our area for the later part of the week.
Morning... Pot...
424. KBH
morning all, seems like someone been doing a rain dance as the rains are back again in Barbados! have some heavy showers and lightning last night and more is on the way...any invest about?
Morning all...
426. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
one thing for sure the area of convection in the nw carib is a persistant beast.


Yeah...it's been there since Omar.
Quoting leftovers:
one thing for sure the area of convection in the nw carib is a persistant beast.


Well... it does look like a little puppy now.
Hi Logic, and 2 Bajans...
Quoting KBH:
morning all, seems like someone been doing a rain dance as the rains are back again in Barbados! have some heavy showers and lightning last night and more is on the way...any invest about?


Not close to your area... yet! Hehe...
430. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND. HOWEVER...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BROWN
How about a poll on
"Most Interesting Storm for 08"
There have been some great ones this season.
That trough system around the Windward islands is interacting with a Twave, producing rainy conditions and isolated thunderstorms since last night. Right now, it's kinda chilly and overcast outside...looks like it'll be a rainy day.

Quoting pottery:
How about a poll on
"Most Interesting Storm for 08"
There have been some great ones this season.


Hehe... well to me, it has been Omar, that little machine was able to fight off some good shear and able to take advantage of the limited resources it had to rapidly intensify.
77, there is a truck-load of lightening to your east. Not far off either. You will have to move with an umbrella today.

435. KBH
Quoting WxLogic:


Not close to your area... yet! Hehe...

Local met say we have 70% to 80% chance of thunderstorms for the next five days and ecmf has a low here by Saturday.
Logic, Ike would rate high too, tracking south of Cuba etc.
437. KBH
chilly is about right, feels like a December morning at 5.00 am. The lightning my side was louder that the thunder!
Quoting KBH:
chilly is about right, feels like a December morning at 5.00 am. The lightning my side was louder that the thunder!


Wow...
KBH, deffinitely December-ish. 24c here at 4 am. Thats low for October......
440. KBH
Quoting stormdude77:


Wow...

car alwrms were going off like crazy, it was close enough that I heard that zzzz then the loud bang!
Lightening that close, when you hear the zzzzzzz and bang, is energizing.!!
It's now starting to rain here...it's looking very ominous outside...
Interesting fact-
lightening "fixes" nitrogen in the air, which falls as fertilizer. Its good for your vegetation.
Morning all: Gorgeous morning here...cool with light drizzle. Really believe H season is over.
Sounds good, Conchy.
I am out .......
Hi... Conchy...
See ya pottery!
Quoting WxLogic:
Hi... Conchy...
Quoting conchygirl:
Try this again, last post I said - Hi and loving the cooler weather.
Morning All.

68 degrees in Jupiter, FL this morning. Absolutely beautiful. I've been waiting for this all year.

Pretty broad area of low pressure and convergence associated with 91L. Once steering currents pick up a bit, the speculated center relocation could happen. Ya have to think, being there so darned long, something will eventually come of it. Law of averages.
451. IKE
53 degrees with sunshine here in the Florida panhandle...

conchygirl...I sense a Paloma in the GOM...
452. KBH
it is dark indeed, can't see the keyboard well, gotta get the lights. Rains now starting here and winds have picked up too..
Morning!

COLD here (not as cold as 6C though!). 44 degrees and sunny sunny...SO GLAD the heat finally broke.
Mid afternoon, and it's 10C.
About 5C this morning. Winter definitely on its way...
Good morning to all!
A beautiful morning where I am located in Florida as well....finally broke into the 60's for a low of 65!

I rarely post links to my personal WU blog....but there is a good reason for it today.

I have posted a blog in support of the residents of the Bolivar Peninsula in Texas...ground zero for Ike.

There is a desperate need now after over a month has elapsed since landfall.
The media and press outlets have all moved on and there is scant coverage of the situation and as a result....donations and help for the hardest hit people has dwindled.

Portlight is heading that way right now and I am asking everyone that can to help support these efforts.

More information:

Please visit my blog:
Link


Or StormJunkies blog:
Link


Thank you all in advance for anything you can do.

456. IKE
91L....

morning Storm!
Quoting IKE:
91L....



A cruise liner (C6VG7) about 87NM N of Honduras has reported W winds and a pressure of 1008MB... while the Buoy 42056 to the N of the TS cluster reporting NE winds.

If this validates then there's definitely a SFC low starting to take tape further N (closer to the deep convection).
451. IKE

Hey IKE, check again I think the temp may have dropped a bit more. We just hit 49 along the coast in the Mary Esther area! What a beautiful morning, more of the same for this weekend after the front passes on Friday!
Quoting IKE:
53 degrees with sunshine here in the Florida panhandle...

conchygirl...I sense a Paloma in the GOM...
Boo...We shall see. It is hard to think about storms with the winter weather slipping in. LOL
462. IKE
Quoting conchygirl:
Boo...We shall see. It is hard to think about storms with the winter weather slipping in. LOL


Winter weather? LOL. I know you're teasing.

It's at 56 degrees now...at my house...outside.
Ike: Kinda/Sorta teasing. It was 68 when I came to work this morning and some folks are wearing sweaters. Not really winter weather but sure feels like the beginning of winter in central florida. And I am with Surfmom, running sure is easier in the cooer temps. NO PALOMA.
464. KBH
Pottery looks like you gonna get some of these rains in bit
Morning all, still raining in Barbados, it dosen't seem to want to stop. We have probably had 2 good days of sun in 2 weeks and it looks as thou the flair up outside of Barbados will give us off & on rain & thunderstorms for the next few days.........
Morning! Well, in Sanford, NC we are at 39. Had frost Monday morning and calling for more on Wednesday and Thursday. Have a blessed day!
467. IKE
Belize w/west winds...

Puerto Barrios, GU (Airport)
Updated: -32 sec ago
Overcast
73 °F
Overcast
Humidity: 88%
Dew Point: 70 °F
Wind: 7 mph from the West
Pressure: 29.92 in (Rising)
Visibility: 6.2 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 900 ft
Overcast 8000 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 3 ft
WXLOGIC

You are right, I just checked that ship report and the buoy report. Very interesting especially since the convection is becoming more enhanced.
469. KBH
Gwad, that's the same thing I been saying . Winds have now picked up from NE, so I am thinking the clouds will get pushed further south
73.6 here in SWFL, not too cold, not to hot, pretty much perfect. Should be interesting to see if anything comes out of the Caribbean system, getting later in the season now, but this is prime time for the W coast of FL.
Quoting mettech:
WXLOGIC

You are right, I just checked that ship report and the buoy report. Very interesting especially since the convection is becoming more enhanced.


We'll see in a couple hours as we'll need to know if that TS Cluster won't go poof!!! but the DMAX did helped it increase its TS activity along with divergence aloft.
CharlotteFl

I am in Port Charlotte also....You are right, the west coast of Florida is most vulnerable in October even if it's winter in north Florida.
WXLOGIC

I enjoy your comments on the tropical systems. You are well versed. I worked as a Met. Tech at PBI for quite a while back in the seventies. Keep up the good wx logic!
475. KBH
Storm, you agree that those clouds are pushing south, or is that wishful thinking?
Quoting KBH:
Storm, you agree that those clouds are pushing south, or is that wishful thinking?


Yeah, those clouds are pushing to the south...I'm not to sure why, though. However, I'm thinking it could be due to that large ULL to the NE of the islands.
Quoting mettech:
WXLOGIC

I enjoy your comments on the tropical systems. You are well versed. I worked as a Met. Tech at PBI for quite a while back in the seventies. Keep up the good wx logic!


Hehe... thx :P

I always look forward to comments from you and anybody else as there's always something you overlook that can/will change things quite a bit.
Quoting mettech:
WXLOGIC

I enjoy your comments on the tropical systems. You are well versed. I worked as a Met. Tech at PBI for quite a while back in the seventies. Keep up the good wx logic!


Agree. Upper and Lower support is targeted on the area in question. One would think it will persist until one or both are lost. Surface Analysis is interesting as well.
Latest TPC 72 hour surface forecast...valid 12Z Friday:


Photobucket

good morning everyone!!!!,I would expect to see a ramp up w/91L as it continue's to slowly drift North or NNW and like I stated last night its center should remain over water,maybe just brushing the northeast side of the yucatan....sheer has also been slackening as I stated last night was evident on the WV....I'm still standing by my sypnosis from the last 2 days.And that is a strong TS crossing the FL peninsula between TPA and naples on friday evening....all interests in the eastern GOM should be on alert as there is still a possibilty of 91l becoming a weak cane right before landfall....
481. IKE
Quoting vortfix:
Latest TPC 72 hour surface forecast...valid 12Z Friday:


Photobucket



That seems about right. Maybe some decent rains for the areas that need it...hopefully not much wind.
If the low level circulation redevelops under the cloud mass, isnt that a point much further north and east of where the models are generating their track from. Wouldnt that dictate a course further to the north east across sw florida?
483. IKE
Accuweather's take on 91L.....

Development Possible in the Northwestern Caribbean

Our main concern with the Atlantic Basin is with a broad area of low pressure in place over the northwestern Caribbean. Surface observations show a broad cyclonic wind flow centered just north of the northern coast of Honduras near 17 north, 86 west. This low pressure area will not move much over the next 24 hours. A deepening upper level trough over the western United States will extend into the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday. This will force this low pressure area northward. During this process the system will move over very warm water while shear over the system diminishes for a short time. This will create a window of opportunity for development Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday.

During this time we expect the low pressure area to consolidate and become better organized. This could lead to the development of a tropical depression and even a storm just west over the southern Gulf of Mexico. However, computer models show increased shear developing over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Thursday night and Friday as the upper-level system moves into the eastern United States. This increased shear will prevent further development. issue will be whether this low pressure area can wrap up and strengthen quickly enough during the period of lower shear. If this development does not happen by Thursday night then it will be more difficult for this system to become an organized tropical system.
Hi still... I was thinking the same in regards to the motion of it. Not quite heading inland but meandering in the Gulf of Honduras (GOH), before resuming a NW motion as the weak High to its N slides E toward the W ATL region.

Let's see how things play out since tonight and tomorrow will be in my opinion decisive days as to the strengh and track of this system.
485. IKE
NEW BLOG!
486. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting probly:
If the low level circulation redevelops under the cloud mass, isnt that a point much further north and east of where the models are generating their track from. Wouldnt that dictate a course further to the north east across sw florida?


Hmm... not quite... yes I would see a slight eastern track... but remember that it still has a High to its N that is being pushed E by a developing trough in the C CONUS, so I wouldn't think there will be much difference from the current thinking.

Now if this system does intensify enough, it could change the dynamics and well... good luck to what will happen next. lol
488. KBH
good for us,. pottery, look out
489. KBH
does anyone see that UlL pushing that large cloud mass from the north atlantic down to the islands?...could be lots more rain...