WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

West Virginia in Shock after Flash Floods Kill At Least 23

By: Bob Henson 3:09 PM GMT on June 27, 2016

One of the worst flood disasters in West Virginia history has left thousands without power, ruined hundreds of homes, and taken at least 23 lives (Sunday’s toll was lowered on Monday morning after two missing people were found alive). The floodwaters coursed through several valley towns in southeastern WV from late Thursday into Friday after multiple lines of heavy thunderstorms “trained” through the area along a stalled frontal boundary. The first wave of storms arrived Thursday morning after having ripped through the Midwest overnight with high winds and more than a dozen tornadoes. Damage and injury from that severe weather ended up less than expected, whereas the West Virginia flooding was far worse than anticipated, although a flash flood watch was issued by the National Weather Service a day in advance. At least 500 homes were destroyed or severely damaged in Roane County alone, according to the WV Division of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. Neighboring Greenbrier County was also very hard hit, especially the small town of Rainelle, where at least 15 people died. The flood damage extended to the Old White TPC golf course in White Sulphur Springs, home of the annual PGA Tour’s Greenbrier Classic golf tournament. This year’s tournament, which had been scheduled for July 7-10, has been cancelled. Power remained out for more than 10,000 people on Sunday afternoon, three days after the flood began.

A flash flood watch is in effect Monday for a large swath of southern WV and neighboring areas. Although widespread heavy rains are not expected to recur, even localized downpours could exacerbate problems in the worst-hit places. Ominously, a flash flood warning was issued for Summers and Greenbrier Counties at 10:56 AM EDT, as showers and thunderstorms were already expanding in that area with intensification expected this afternoon.


Figure 1. Mark Lester cleans out a box with creek water as he cleans up from severe flooding in White Sulphur Springs, W. Va., Friday, June 24, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo/Steve Helber.


Figure 2. Jay Bennett, left, and step-son Easton Phillips survey the damage to a neighbor’s car in front of their home damaged by floodwaters as the cleanup begins from severe flooding in White Sulphur Springs, W. Va., Friday, June 24, 2016. Image credit: AP Photo/Steve Helber.


Figure 3. Numerous bands of thunderstorms rolled east-southeast across the heart of West Virginia, as shown here in NWS NEXRAD radar imagery from 1729Z (1:29 pm EDT) Thursday, June 23, 2016. Reds and oranges indicate the highest reflectivities and heaviest rain. Image credit: NCAR/RAL Real-Time Weather Data.


Climate change is making the heaviest one-day rains heavier
Rainfall totals for the 48-hour period spanning the flood event ranged as high as 9.65” in Greenbrier County. Most of that likely fell within just a few hours, according to the NWS/Charleston (WV) office. This is not far below the state’s official 24-hour rainfall record of 12.02”, recorded at Brushy Run on June 18, 1949. An unofficial total of 19.00” was measured on July 18, 1889 at Rockport as a hurricane passed to the southeast. The remnants of another tropical cyclone, 1985’s Hurricane Juan, led to West Virginia’s most damaging and second-deadliest flood of record, the Election Day floods in November 1985 that killed 38, ranking behind only the catastrophic Buffalo Creek flood (see below).

Based on radar and other data, Tye Parbyzok (MetStat) estimates that the highest 24-hour rainfall amounts observed in West Virginia last week would be expected to recur less than once every 1000 years on average (see Figure 2). A growing body of research shows that the ever-increasing amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is intensifying the heaviest rainfalls observed in many parts of the world, and models indicate this trend will continue. According to one study highlighted in the 2014 U.S. Climate Change Assessment, a two-day rainfall that might have occurred only once every five years in the early 20th century has become almost 40% more frequent since then, with the greatest increase in the Northeast, Midwest, and Upper Great Plains. The amount of precipitation falling on the wettest 1 percent of days increased by 71% in the Northeast, including West Virginia, from 1958 to 2012. Climate-related trends in flooding are more difficult to assess, since flooding depends on land-use practices as well as atmospheric variables. The beta website Climate Signals has a page devoted to climate-change factors relevant to the West Virginia floods.


Figure 4. Maximum 24-hour recurrence intervals for rainfall from 9:00 pm EDT Tuesday, June 21, through 8 pm EDT Friday, June 24. A swath of southern West Virginia experienced 24-hour rainfalls that would be expected to recur less than once every 1000 years. MetStat computed the recurrence interval statistics based on gauge-adjusted radar precipitation and frequency estimates from NOAA Atlas 14 Volume 8, published in 2013. MetStat provides free access to their near real-time precipitation ARI analyses at their website and Facebook page. Image credit: MetStat, Inc.

U.S. flood toll is running high in the 2010s
Based on its single-state toll, West Virginia’s flash flood is the nation’s deadliest in a number of years. Flash floods are notorious for taking only a few lives at a time, which obscures their cumulative impact on the nation. Last year was a particularly tragic example, thanks in large part to relentless onslaughts of heavy rain and resulting flash floods and river floods in Texas, Oklahoma, and Missouri. In the National Weather Service database of severe weather fatalities (which counts flash and river flood deaths separately from hurricane fatalities), flash and river floods killed 176 people in the United States in 2015. That statistic got little notice, but it’s in fact the largest such total in more than 30 years, ever since 204 lives were lost in 1985. Over the decade 2006-2015, a total of 844 people were killed in U.S. flash floods and river floods, with more than 100 lives lost in 2010 and again in 2011. Disconcertingly, more than half of the past decade’s flood deaths (a total of 446) occurred in vehicles, despite the growing use of the NWS mantra “Turn Around, Don’t Drown.”

2015: 176 deaths, 112 in vehicles
2014: 38 deaths, 16 in vehicles
2013: 82 deaths, 37 in vehicles
2012: 29 deaths, 11 in vehicles
2011: 113 deaths, 68 in vehicles
2010: 103 deaths, 45 in vehicles
2009: 56 deaths, 33 in vehicles
2008: 82 deaths, 39 in vehicles
2007: 89 deaths, 51 in vehicles
2006: 76 deaths, 34 in vehicles
Total: 844 deaths, 446 in vehicles

West Virginia’s tragic flood history
Last week’s flooding hit a state that could use a break. The rise of much-needed alternative forms of energy has brought hard times to the coal industry, and it’s likely that no state has been more affected than West Virginia. Yet the coal industry also played a major role in the state’s deadliest flood on record: the Buffalo Creek disaster of February 26, 1972. After days of heavy rain, a dam built atop coal slurry failed catastrophically above the town of Saunders, with the resulting wave of coal-blackened, sludgy water overtaking two other dams before cascading into more than a dozen unincorporated settlements downstream. In less than an hour, the flood wave swept through the valley, killing 125 people and injuring more than 1100, with some 500 homes destroyed. Although several commissions pinned the blame for the disaster on practices of the Pottstown Coal Company, no indictments were returned and the company settled with the state for a fraction of the damages originally sought. The state’s Division of Culture and History has a moving website devoted to the disaster, which was explored by sociologist Kai Erickson in the 1978 book Everything In Its Path: Destruction of Community in the Buffalo Creek Flood. The website’s final page includes the names and ages of each victim, which serves as especially poignant testimony to this calamity--as does the 1975 film “The Buffalo Creek Flood: An Act of Man,” which is excerpted in the YouTube clip below, from the Kentucky-based Appalshop media center.

Bob Henson


Flood Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

holla, shoutout to grieving in WV...i got married @ Greenbrier and fell in love with the place!
According to new ENSO update from CPC we are 0.1° away from hitting La Niña we should be there by next week

Thanks for the update Mr Henson.
this mornings low here was 69.5F


Humidity here is 66% and may not drop like yesterday, monsoonal stuff on tap.
Thanks for the update.
Tropical Cyclone 02A (Two) forms in the Arabian Sea, tracking west toward Oman - The Watchers - June 27.
02A, around 1300 GMT (vis) :
Thanks Mr. Henson for those sobering statistics. While we often see MS Valley river flooding in the Spring, and in other riverine deltas around the US, due to snow pack melt further to the North which is often devastating, we at least have some potential warning where people might have time to sand bag their properties, and or evacuate, as flood waters begin rising.

Flash flooding from a short-term prolific rain event is in many ways a much more dangerous animal with little lead time once the banks overflow and mud and debris starts to flow.
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson.
Sad to see WV get hammered again...
The three systems in line, from Bermuda to east of Venezuela, are now better organized to produce something worth looking for.
If you want to help those in W. Virginia here is a great way.


Port light Featured Wunderblog

Fellow WUer Celebrating Upcoming Birthday by Fundraising for Portlight!
By: Portlight , 4:36 PM CDT on June 15, 2016


Our friend and fellow weather geek, Jessica Katz, feels very strongly about the importance of Portlight's work, and has come up with a very cool way of supporting it. We've invited her to be our guest blogger this week, so that she can tell you about it herself!

Welcome, Jessica, and thank you, from the bottom of our hearts, for your selflessness and dedication to disaster relief and recovery for people with disabilities!

Shari Myers
Chief Operations Officer
Portlight Inclusive Disaster Strategies
*****************************************



Quoting 9. PedleyCA:

Thanks for the update Mr. Henson.
Sad to see WV get hammered again...


Double whammy if you ask me. The floods, and the cancellation of the PGA event - a surefire boost to the local/regional economy, are really going to cause even more economic pain for a region that certainly does not need it.

When we discuss about "getting rid of coal" and "getting rid of oil", maybe we should also discuss how those impacted directly should and could be assisted to successfully transition to another industry/economic model.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 1010 AM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
14. IDTH
Quoting 687. StormTrackerScott:

This is one hell of a PDO signature and its basically suffocating any chance for La-Nina to materialize. Don't get me wrong its trying but its meeting lots of resistance. Never has a La-Nina happened before with this strong of a PDO in place. Its as if La-Nina is essentially being blocked from occurring on all sides.



Quoting 2. wunderkidcayman:

According to new ENSO update from CPC we are 0.1° away from hitting La Niña we should be there by next week



Checkmate.
No RSMC advisory released to public for 02A, but....

India Meteorological Department Meteorological Analysis notes...

At 17:30 PM IST, A depression over northern Arabian Sea lays centered near 21.5N 64.0E, about 580 km west of Porbandar (Gujarat) and 440 km east­ southeast of Bas Al Hadd (Oman).

The system would continue to move nearly westwards towards Oman coast and intensify into a deep depression during next 24 hours.
Woah...936 MBAR!
This is important to note:

"...Based on radar and other data, Tye Parbyzok (MetStat) estimates that the highest 24-hour rainfall amounts observed in West Virginia last week would be expected to recur less than once every 1000 years on average (see Figure 2).
A growing body of research shows that the ever-increasing amount of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is intensifying the heaviest rainfalls observed in many parts of the world, and models indicate this trend will continue. "
. Climate change is making the heaviest one-day rains heavier
Rainfall totals for the 48-hour period spanning the flood event ranged as high as 9.65 in Greenbrier County. Most of that likely fell within just a few hours, according to the NWS/Charleston (WV) office. This is not far below the states official 24-hour rainfall record of 12.02, recorded at Brushy Run on June 18, 1949. An unofficial total of 19.00 was measured on July 18, 1889 at Rockport as a hurricane passed to the southeast. The remnants of another tropical cyclone, 1985's Hurricane Juan, led to West Virginias most damaging and second-deadliest flood of record, the Election Day floods in November 1985 that killed 38, ranking behind only the catastrophic Buffalo Creek flood (see below).



May 2016 CO2

407.70 ppm

Quoting 18. Patrap:

. Climate change is making the heaviest one-day rains heavier
Rainfall totals for the 48-hour period spanning the flood event ranged as high as 9.65 in Greenbrier County. Most of that likely fell within just a few hours, according to the NWS/Charleston (WV) office. This is not far below the states official 24-hour rainfall record of 12.02, recorded at Brushy Run on June 18, 1949. An unofficial total of 19.00 was measured on July 18, 1889 at Rockport as a hurricane passed to the southeast. The remnants of another tropical cyclone, 1985's Hurricane Juan, led to West Virginias most damaging and second-deadliest flood of record, the Election Day floods in November 1985 that killed 38, ranking behind only the catastrophic Buffalo Creek flood (see below).



May 2016 CO2

407.70 ppm


But we only have accurate weather readings for the past one-hundred years or so, that is why it is not surprising that we are breaking a lot of records.
La nina is a hoax! The Aussie's are lying to us! Lol.Still obsessing over el nino three years later
Quoting 19. hotroddan:

But we only have accurate weather readings for the past one-hundred years or so, that is why it is not surprising that we are breaking a lot of records.


Educate yourself or don't. The evidence will continue to accumulate regardless of what you wish to believe.
Quoting 19. hotroddan:

But we only have accurate weather readings for the past one-hundred years or so, that is why it is not surprising that we are breaking a lot of records.


Well frankly, no. What has changed over the years that would lead to more records? Why would this time period be producing more extreme or record events? What is different and what has caused the difference?
As I read the article I was wondering what percentage of Flash Flood fatalities were vehicle related.. was surprised to see that it was 50%! This is just tragic... I'm sure that there are those who are unaware of the dangers and then there are those that believe they'll be just fine crossing through the water.. it's just sad no matter what the reason, but with the increase in flooding rains I'd that information is provided in the public education system in at least in flood prone areas. Take care everyone.
just referring to the article about pacific typhoon drought.....could one say the globe is in a typhoon/hurricane drought....seems the impending doom over on the atlantic side has all but dried up at least for the time being....and to be fair did it really ever look like a prolific season? no doubt a few more than last year but even the "classified" systems in the Atlantic were marginal at best
I have been around for about 40........and I can tell you its hotter than it was 10 years ago and not only that it doesnt get as cold as it used to get....and the south pole doesnt count.......now obviously that doesnt count scientifically and we see your point but come on......
Quoting 21. daddyjames:



Educate yourself or don't. The evidence will continue to accumulate regardless of what you wish to believe.
Quoting 19. hotroddan:

But we only have accurate weather readings for the past one-hundred years or so, that is why it is not surprising that we are breaking a lot of records.

So much information... so little effort...
GFS Model is hinting at an extremely favorable MJO that develops storms in the E Pac then eventually shifts over the the Atlantic. Conditions may be favoring several storms, especially toward the mid-later part of July in the Gulf and Caribbean.
EPAC looks like it will get active very soon.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A westward-moving tropical wave located over Central America is
expected to move into the eastern North Pacific on Tuesday, and then
induce a broad area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
by Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance through this
weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Stewart


NASA spots Tropical Cyclone 02A develop in Arabian Sea
But no pictures unfortunately ;-(
I think Oman is about to get hit by floods too...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

dont know how to post pics....and I hear its complicated

this region does not look conducive to anything
Quoting 30. 19N81W:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/wv-l.jpg

dont know how to post pics....and I hear its complicated

this region does not look conducive to anything


There ya go
Quoting 28. Tropicsweatherpr:

EPAC looks like it will get active very soon.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A westward-moving tropical wave located over Central America is
expected to move into the eastern North Pacific on Tuesday, and then
induce a broad area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
by Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance through this
weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Stewart



Wonder when the Atlantic will get a turn on something significant.
Is there anyone still missing in the WV floods?
Quoting 2. wunderkidcayman:

According to new ENSO update from CPC we are 0.1° away from hitting La Niña we should be there by next week




Well, no it's not that simple, because the -0.5C threshold must be met or beaten for at 3 overlapping 3 month periods, for example JJA, JAS, ASO. So if it does fall by that 0.1 degree, it needs to stay there or cooler until the end of October before it is La Nina. Also when you consider the time it takes for the ocean to teleconnect with the atmosphere, we wouldn't really expect to see any La Nina like symptoms until around the end of October at the earliest. On top of this we have the strongest positive PDO we have perhaps ever seen which is strangling La Nina's attempt to materialise. Like I've said before, I wouldn't expect La Nina to have much of an effect on this year's ATL hurricane season.
Quoting 16. HurricaneFan:

Woah...936 MBAR!


It's pissed off about having to be named Agatha.
Quoting 28. Tropicsweatherpr:

EPAC looks like it will get active very soon.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A westward-moving tropical wave located over Central America is
expected to move into the eastern North Pacific on Tuesday, and then
induce a broad area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
by Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance through this
weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Stewart





YAWN i be leve it when i see it
cheers!
so is it really complicated or is there somewhere on the site that can direct me?
thanks
Quoting 31. RitaEvac:



There ya go

Quoting 22. Naga5000:



Well frankly, no. What has changed over the years that would lead to more records? Why would this time period be producing more extreme or record events? What is different and what has caused the difference?
Earth is supposedly billions of years old so, the climate has probably been changing for all that time so there really is not a normal climate.
Quoting 38. hotroddan:

Earth is supposedly billions of years old so, the climate has probably been changing for all that time so there really is not a normal climate.
Right on!Nothing new under the sun.
Good post, Mr. Henson. I think it's important to note that West Virginia, with its high elevation and generally agreeable climate, is seemingly the last place you would think of to suffer from catastrophic climate change. Certainly, the Atlantic will never expand so much to impact West Virginia in any meaningful way. The state rarely experiences tornadoes, although severe thunderstorms are not uncommon - major outbreaks are fairly rare. Most of the state, especially the higher terrain seldom experiences extreme heat. Temperatures above ninety degrees are uncommon in places like Beckley and Bluefield. While global warming will increase the incidence of extreme heat, places in the lower elevations clearly have a much greater risk. Unlike the states of the western United States, extreme drought and wildfires are rare. But this event should be a wake-up call - nobody is safe from climate change.
Quoting 34. EyewallPaul:



Well, no it's not that simple, because the -0.5C threshold must be met or beaten for at 3 overlapping 3 month periods, for example JJA, JAS, ASO. So if it does fall by that 0.1 degree, it needs to stay there or cooler until the end of October before it is La Nina. Also when you consider the time it takes for the ocean to teleconnect with the atmosphere, we wouldn't really expect to see any La Nina like symptoms until around the end of October at the earliest. On top of this we have the strongest positive PDO we have perhaps ever seen which is strangling La Nina's attempt to materialise. Like I've said before, I wouldn't expect La Nina to have much of an effect on this year's ATL hurricane season.

The atmosphere doesn't care about official definitions. The current pattern more resembles a La Nina, or Neutral at the very least, instead of El Nino.
Quoting 25. 19N81W:

I have been around for about 40........and I can tell you its hotter than it was 10 years ago and not only that it doesnt get as cold as it used to get....and the south pole doesnt count.......now obviously that doesnt count scientifically and we see your point but come on......

But the point that I am trying to make is that the climate is always changing. We might go through a period of one thousand years of hot temperatures then go through another thousand year period with cold temps.
Quoting 38. hotroddan:

Earth is supposedly billions of years old so, the climate has probably been changing for all that time so there really is not a normal climate.
That kind of talk is not welcome here. Wesr Texas getting good rain the last 24 hrs.
Quoting 42. hotroddan:

But the point that I am trying to make is that the climate is always changing. We might go through a period of one thousand years of hot temperatures then go through another thousand year period with cold temps.


Climate doesn't change by magic. It has forcings.
Quoting 38. hotroddan:

Earth is supposedly billions of years old so, the climate has probably been changing for all that time so there really is not a normal climate.


I didn't ask about normal. I asked what has changed and why.
Global Climate Change Indicators

Introduction

Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming.

It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.

How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming?

A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate. The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences. For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover. These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations.
Quoting 42. hotroddan:

But the point that I am trying to make is that the climate is always changing. We might go through a period of one thousand years of hot temperatures then go through another thousand year period with cold temps.
Quoting 25. 19N81W:

I have been around for about 40........and I can tell you its hotter than it was 10 years ago and not only that it doesnt get as cold as it used to get....and the south pole doesnt count.......now obviously that doesnt count scientifically and we see your point but come on......
I have been around 57 years and i can tell you nothing has changed.Except maybe lees tornado ,and hurricanes the last 11 years.And that is good because global warning people were saying the worst in history was coming after 2005 and nothing even close has happened.
Quoting 42. hotroddan:

But the point that I am trying to make is that the climate is always changing. We might go through a period of one thousand years of hot temperatures then go through another thousand year period with cold temps.


Actually, you aren't making any point. You're just repeating a bunch of talking points, many of which directly contradict one another. On the one hand, you say we don't have sufficient records to determine whether the climate is presently changing. On the other hand, you say the climate has cycled over thousands of years in the past. On the one hand, you question the scientific consensus of climate change. On the other hand, you cite past climate changes - climate changes whose only existence is known through the very research of the scientists you bash.
Quoting 47. help4u:


Quoting 47. help4u:


Only thing that has changed is less hurricanes and tornado activity has been less.
I am not sure what others views are on here....well thats not true I do.....but I agree with you to some extent....I think what many are looking at is the extreme variability over such a short period of time...
Quoting 42. hotroddan:

But the point that I am trying to make is that the climate is always changing. We might go through a period of one thousand years of hot temperatures then go through another thousand year period with cold temps.
Quoting 48. ClimateChange:



Actually, you aren't making any point. You're just repeating a bunch of talking points, many of which directly contradict one another. On the one hand, you say we don't have sufficient records to determine whether the climate is presently changing. On the other hand, you say the climate has cycled over thousands of years in the past. On the one hand, you question the scientific consensus of climate change. On the other hand, you cite past climate changes - climate changes whose only existence is known through the very research of the scientists you bash.


Someone needs to make some denier talking points bingo cards.
lol, nm... google was my friend.
Quoting 49. help4u:

Only thing that has changed is less hurricanes and tornado activity has been less.


So there has been no warming of the atmosphere and oceans? No corresponding cooling of the stratosphere? No melting ice? No sea level rise? I can go on.
Quoting 28. Tropicsweatherpr:

EPAC looks like it will get active very soon.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A westward-moving tropical wave located over Central America is
expected to move into the eastern North Pacific on Tuesday, and then
induce a broad area of low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
by Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for gradual development of the disturbance through this
weekend while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Stewart




Yeah, a tropical cyclone outbreak looks increasingly likely next week as an MJO pulse and CCKW move through. We might see two or three systems in the span of a week.
Quoting 43. Kenfa03:

That kind of talk is not welcome here. Wesr Texas getting good rain the last 24 hrs.
If by "that kind of talk" you mean old, tired, cliched, worn-out, debunked, disproven, scientifically-baseless, grossly uninformed, intellectually lazy, logically-invalid nonsense--such as, you know, "the climate's always changing"--then you're right: it's not welcome here, nor in any other forum that prides itself on adhering to science. Honest curiosity is good; willful ignorance is not.

(And to the point at hand: "The climate's changed before" is the #1 most debunked--and most easily disproven--denialist trope at Skeptical Science.)
Quoting 51. OKsky:



Someone needs to make some denier talking points bingo cards.
lol, nm... google was my friend.




.....Under the B'..64

B 64


Quoting 50. 19N81W:

I am not sure what others views are on here....well thats not true I do.....but I agree with you to some extent....I think what many are looking at is the extreme variability over such a short period of time...



if by extreme variability you mean in one direction predominately, well then you would be correct.

Don't confuse variability with overall trends of the mean. There will always be variability regardless of what mean temperature is settled upon.
Quoting 29. 999Ai2016:

NASA spots Tropical Cyclone 02A develop in Arabian Sea
But no pictures unfortunately ;-(
I think Oman is about to get hit by floods too...
Does not look too organized... Flooding could be bad..

Quoting 53. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Yeah, a tropical cyclone outbreak looks increasingly likely next week as an MJO pulse and CCKW move through. We might see two or three systems in the span of a week.
Well what are the chances of anything on our side.
Quoting 37. 19N81W:

cheers!
so is it really complicated or is there somewhere on the site that can direct me?
thanks



Right click on a photo and select copy image address, then when posting a comment select the far right icon shaped like a square and paste the image address in the box, then hit post comment
why didnt I ask earlier that wasnt that bad at all
Quoting 60. 19N81W:


Quoting 58. HurricaneAndre:

Well what are the chances of anything on our side.

Low. Chances will increase for the Atlantic during the second week of July, I think.
Quoting 62. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Low. Chances will increase for the Atlantic during the second week of July, I think.
So what can I do until then. Just have a hoedown in the east pac huh.
It was a booming a while ago here in Downtown Houston, hardly rained, heavy rain missed downtown by a few hundred feet, it was that close. Out window it was a wall of white to the north.

faster and faster



good update thanks
sad to see
but we are to see a lot more
of what we don't want too see
or refuse to see however
one looks at it

I know someone who has quite a way at deflecting man make global warming. It goes like this. They believe there isn't man made global warming. Their reasoning, that man can't hardly knows how are own planet works, how can we be so powerful so to warm the earth on our own (logical I know). Person A brings in the overwhelming amount of climate scientists who show global warming to be man made. Then the person I know states that their information is rigged because they are likely funded by people who have an interest in funding studies that prove the existence of man made global warming, so they all uniformly skew the statistics. If they don't, this person postulates, they'll be fired or defunded. I assume this person assumes that all funding of science by 3rd parties is done in selffish interest of getting the result they desire. Even being told about how more dramatic global warming is up north, they state that it is just a trend and that "everyone in the human climate change community cannot see the Forrest through the trees."

You cannot convince such a person of man made global warming. They very things some use to attack those positions are thrown back at them with the same accusations some throw at the skeptic community "it's all political, corrupt, and wants to take/keep control with no regard for the future."
Quoting 66. ElConando:

They very things some use to attack those positions are thrown back at them with the same accusations some throw at the skeptic community "it's all political, corrupt, and wants to take/keep control with no regard for the future."
That happens, true. Though those who possess critical thinking abilities can well see that on the fake "skeptic" side sit political charlatans and ideologues beholden to an industry making more than $2 billion profit (note: not revenue) each week, while on the other side sit tens of thousands of highly educated and deeply committed climate scientists who may if they're very luck and very good pull in just enough grant money to keep them from needing to take side jobs at McDonalds to supplement their meager academic earnings.

No matter how much some may complain otherwise, there's simply nothing to support the statement that "both sides do it, so both sides are equally wrong."
Quoting 42. hotroddan:

But the point that I am trying to make is that the climate is always changing. We might go through a period of one thousand years of hot temperatures then go through another thousand year period with cold temps.


I agree. However, I also agree that "man" is influencing this variability.

We can debate how much man is affecting it, but to me that is secondary for me wanting to be "green". Even if we were not affecting climate at all, not one iota. What is the harm in creating self-sustaining and clean energy? Why pollute at all if you do not have to? I don't get it.

Actually, I do get it, it is all about jealousy, greed, and money. Because those are the only reasons to fight it.
Quoting 55. Patrap:




.....Under the B'..64

B 64





Transcript according to aliens: "this here is a 'frozerainball'. it fell from the sky. it was a sunday in July while sunbathing on Miami Beach."

context pleaseeeeeeeeeeeeeeee Patrap? :) - thataway our "denier" friends can understand why there's a elected politician with a snowball.
WVC025-089-272130-  
/O.NEW.KRNK.SV.W.0140.160627T2032Z-160627T2130Z/  
 
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA  
432 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BLACKSBURG HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHERN SUMMERS COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...  
SOUTHWESTERN GREENBRIER COUNTY IN WEST VIRGINIA...  
 
* UNTIL 530 PM EDT  
 
* AT 432 PM EDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM RAINELLE TO NEAR LAWN TO NEAR ELTON...MOVING  
SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
LEWISBURG...  
RONCEVERTE...  
ALDERSON...  
HIX...  
AND MEADOW BLUFF.  
 
THIS INCLUDES THE WEST VIRGINIA STATE FAIRGROUNDS.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AS WELL AS DEADLY CLOUD TO  
GROUND LIGHTNING. FOR YOUR SAFETY...MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE  
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.  
 
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY LEAD TO  
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.  
 
WHEN IT IS SAFE TO DO SO...PLEASE SEND YOUR REPORTS OF HAIL OF ANY  
SIZE...AS WELL AS ANY REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE...INCLUDING DOWNED TREES  
OR LARGE LIMBS...TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE  
AT 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. REPORTS AND PICTURES CAN ALSO BE  
SHARED ON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG FACEBOOK PAGE AND  
ON TWITTER.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3785 8037 3770 8042 3769 8045 3770 8047  
3769 8052 3773 8066 3769 8068 3758 8075  
3784 8090 3787 8081 3787 8075 3795 8081  
3795 8079  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 295DEG 26KT 3795 8077 3789 8076 3784 8080  
 
HAIL...<.75IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
RAB  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab VA Page

The Nexlab WV Page

The Nexlab NC Page

Main Text Page

71. bwi
My humble rec for read of the day:
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-06-27 /culturally-constructed-ignorance-wins-the-day

http://www.wired.com/2009/01/st-thompson-14/
Fascinating discussion via Wired%u2018s Clive Thompson, and Stanford historian of science Robert Proctor, on Agnotology:

%u201CWhen it comes to many contentious subjects, our usual relationship to information is reversed: Ignorance increases.

[Proctor] has developed a word inspired by this trend: agnotology. Derived from the Greek root agnosis, it is %u201Cthe study of culturally constructed ignorance.%u201D

As Proctor argues, when society doesn%u2019t know something, it%u2019s often because special interests work hard to create confusion. Anti-Obama groups likely spent millions insisting he%u2019s a Muslim; church groups have shelled out even more pushing creationism. The oil and auto industries carefully seed doubt about the causes of global warming. And when the dust settles, society knows less than it did before.

%u201CPeople always assume that if someone doesn%u2019t know something, it%u2019s because they haven%u2019t paid attention or haven%u2019t yet figured it out,%u201D Proctor says. %u201CBut ignorance also comes from people literally suppressing truth%u2014or drowning it out%u2014or trying to make it so confusing that people stop caring about what%u2019s true and what%u2019s not.%u201D (emphasis added)
Fairly amazing, and when it comes to certain issues, its dead on.

What an awesome definition:

Agnotology: Culturally constructed ignorance, purposefully created by special interest groups working hard to create confusion and suppress the truth.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 342 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 237 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 435 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 333 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 432 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 227 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 227 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 318 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 417 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 416 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 415 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC - KLWX 411 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 209 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LITTLE ROCK AR - KLZK 309 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 206 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 143 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 228 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING CHARLESTON WV - KRLX 328 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 126 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 121 PM MDT MON JUN 27 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING BLACKSBURG VA - KRNK 317 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC - KGSP 316 PM EDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING OMAHA/VALLEY NEBRASKA - KOAX 211 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING GOODLAND KS - <>a href="http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KGLD/wwus53.chunk .html" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;"
Quoting 66. ElConando:

I know someone who has quite a way at deflecting man make global warming. It goes like this. They believe there isn't man made global warming. Their reasoning, that man can't hardly knows how are own planet works, how can we be so powerful so to warm the earth on our own (logical I know). Person A brings in the overwhelming amount of climate scientists who show global warming to be man made. Then the person I know states that their information is rigged because they are likely funded by people who have an interest in funding studies that prove the existence of man made global warming, so they all uniformly skew the statistics. If they don't, this person postulates, they'll be fired or defunded. I assume this person assumes that all funding of science by 3rd parties is done in selffish interest of getting the result they desire. Even being told about how more dramatic global warming is up north, they state that it is just a trend and that "everyone in the human climate change community cannot see the Forrest through the trees."

You cannot convince such a person of man made global warming. They very things some use to attack those positions are thrown back at them with the same accusations some throw at the skeptic community "it's all political, corrupt, and wants to take/keep control with no regard for the future."

I find that talking to closed minded people about anything is a waste of time. They have it all figured out and if you don't agree with them you will not be tolerated (unless you are an income source for them). Unfortunately, informed debate has gone the way of the Carrier Pigeon and we are reaping the consequences by the hour. ('could someone cue the Hydra').
Quoting 42. hotroddan:

But the point that I am trying to make is that the climate is always changing. We might go through a period of one thousand years of hot temperatures then go through another thousand year period with cold temps.


I was in your current position when I was a newbie on here (primarily for tropical weather) in 2006; now after thousands of Blogs with cites to the data, and reading independant journal articles and the like over the past several years, the conclusion is inescapable; the Earth (based upon sediment and tree ring data is that is not fabricated) is warming but at the fastest short term rate in milennia. It took 3,000 years to warm to the levels/increases were are currently seeing in just over 100 years which coincides with the modern fossil fuel age.

This is no longer a "debate"; we have crossed the Rubicon and expect to see more extreme temperature extremes, weather related disasters, , and jet stream variability contributing to ongoing Arctic melt at a faster rate in your own lifetime (assuming you are under 50)..................It is only going to get worse. Mankind is not going any where but we will have to adapt.
The disturbance over Central America with a 20% 5 day forecast favorability, I think this system will be a rival to Patricia. GFS already brings it down to 936mb and that is incredible for a global model no matter the upgrades it has had.
Quoting 42. hotroddan:

But the point that I am trying to make is that the climate is always changing. We might go through a period of one thousand years of hot temperatures then go through another thousand year period with cold temps.

Climate doesn't change for no reason. There is always some physical reason why it's happening. In the best estimation of the scientists whose life work is to study climate the major driver of current climate change is the increase in greenhouse gases (primarily CO2) in the atmosphere driven by human emissions. You can argue otherwise but you'd better bring some real scientific evidence to the table if you try.
Quoting 75. TheDawnAwakening:

The disturbance over Central America with a 20% 5 day forecast favorability, I think this system will be a rival to Patricia. GFS already brings it down to 936mb and that is incredible for a global model no matter the upgrades it has had.

The GFS has a long range tendency in the East Pacific to show major hurricanes that don't materialize. While it's always possible we see a Category 3 or stronger hurricane next week, we don't even have an area of low pressure to track at the present time. Predicting it to rival Patricia is like predicting a rival to Wilma while the precursor wave is over Africa.
Quoting 78. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The GFS has a long range tendency in the East Pacific to show major hurricanes that don't materialize. While it's always possible we see a Category 3 or stronger hurricane next week, we don't even have an area of low pressure to track at the present time. Predicting it to rival Patricia is like predicting a rival to Wilma while the precursor wave is over Africa.


I probably should have said if the model is indeed correct, and the area of concern has a rather distinct area of vorticity and strong convection.
I always find the sun interesting, stumbled across a couple of articles. The second one is just kind of for fun as not sure about a "mini ice age" But I did enjoy their graphics. Was trying to remember if 2009 was considered an analog year for this hurricane season.

THE SUN IS STILL BLANK: For the 5th day in a row, the face of the sun is blank--no sunspots
Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 27 Jun 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 4 days
2016 total: 8 days (4%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 27 Jun 2016

Link

Link
Quoting 76. riverat544:


Climate doesn't change for no reason. There is always some physical reason why it's happening. In the best estimation of the scientists whose life work is to study climate the major driver of current climate change is the increase in greenhouse gases (primarily CO2) in the atmosphere driven by human emissions. You can argue otherwise but you'd better bring some real scientific evidence to the table if you try.


I have no scientific evidence but I think that there is more to it than just pumping copious amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.
- farmers dumping pesticides into our water ways
- pesticides killing off beneficial insects
- man changing our water ways and putting up damns
- overpopulation
- live in Houston so I see way to much concrete - build some parks and bike paths
- human waste and sewage being dumped into our water ways

Yes, the oil industry has plenty to be ashamed for ...but we also must place blame on those that are affecting one of the major ways that CO2 is processed out ...mainly our oceans. I get irate when I read about algae blooms. I grew up in Ohio, right on Lake Erie. I saw that lake go through so much, from being totally polluted to getting cleaned up. Looks like it's well on its ways to being polluted again ...fertilizer and human waste.
Quoting 80. justmehouston:

I always find the sun interesting, stumbled across a couple of articles. The second one is just kind of for fun as not sure about a "mini ice age"


I am really sure about the "mini ice age" thing. Not going to happen anytime soon.
Had a nice thunderstorm come through here earlier, .33" of rain. It took the "real feel" temps down well under 105F we had earlier. I think that we have a chance to get a bit more rain this evening ...fingers crossed
Temp is a nice 82.5F, real feel of 92"
Quoting 82. wartsttocs:



I am really sure about the "mini ice age" thing. Not going to happen anytime soon.


I did say it was for fun ...I forget sarcasm doesnt come through well ..should have mentioned it with an lol at the end of my sentence

CO2 and other so called "greenhouse gases" are heat trapping gases so the more you put into the atmosphere the warmer it gets. In nature there changes take place over tens of thousands of years but since we're putting billions of tons of co2 along into the atmosphere every day by digging up and burning fossil fuels this change is occurring over tens of years not giving ecosystems enough time to adapt and causing mass extinction. That's why we're worried about Global warming not because the Earth has never warmed or cooled to all those that are saying Earh has "cycles"
A surface trough is interacting with an upper level low pressure center northeast of the Leeward Antilles Islands. Circulation looks to be dealing with a tremendous amount of shear currently, but it quickly dies down as it sits underneath the upper level low center. Could there be development, maybe?


NASA's IMERG measures deadly West Virginia flooding rainfall

Phys.org - June 27, 2016 by Rob Gutro
"(...) The IMERG analysis showed that extreme rainfall occasionally occurred during this period (from June 20 through 26, 2016) in an area extending from Illinois through North Carolina. Large areas of from Illinois, Indiana and West Virginia were estimated to have received rainfall totals of 320 mm (12.6 inches)."
Quoting 81. justmehouston:



I have no scientific evidence but I think that there is more to it than just pumping copious amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere.
- farmers dumping pesticides into our water ways
- pesticides killing off beneficial insects
- man changing our water ways and putting up damns
- overpopulation
- live in Houston so I see way to much concrete - build some parks and bike paths
- human waste and sewage being dumped into our water ways

Yes, the oil industry has plenty to be ashamed for ...but we also must place blame on those that are affecting one of the major ways that CO2 is processed out ...mainly our oceans. I get irate when I read about algae blooms. I grew up in Ohio, right on Lake Erie. I saw that lake go through so much, from being totally polluted to getting cleaned up. Looks like it's well on its ways to being polluted again ...fertilizer and human waste.
Don't forget the EPA flooding the river with sludge in Colorado and all the birds being killed by wind mills used for power. Also don't forget the millions of dollars released to Iran by the current president that they in turn use to terrorize the world and blow people and things up, we could be oil independent by producing our own but we choose to buy oil from countries that kill and destroy and if allowed will get a nuclear bomb and will use it.I know you guys always talk doom and gloom here and just wanted to keep you updated with some gloomy facts that are never talked about on this site.
Quoting 88. help4u:

Don't forget the EPA flooding the river with sludge in Colorado and all the birds being killed by wind mills used for power. Also don't forget the millions of dollars released to Iran by the current president that they in turn use to terrorize the world and blow people and things up, we could be oil independent by producing our own but we choose to buy oil from countries that kill and destroy and if allowed will get a nuclear bomb and will use it.I know you guys always talk doom and gloom here and just wanted to keep you updated with some gloomy facts that are never talked about on this site.

We don't need to be oil dependent if we generate energy from renewable sources. Just saying all the birds killed by all the wind turbines does not come close to the amount of life killed by oil spills and air pollution.
I was driving US 81 last Thursday in NW VA for 260 miles, it was packed with trucks, RVs and tourists in a light to moderate rain. I doubt that most on the road had any idea of the disaster taking place in the higher mountains over the state line that day. My heart goes out to the families and friends.
Quoting 89. MrTornadochase:


We don't need to be oil dependent at all if we generate energy from renewable sources. Just saying all the birds killed by all the wind turbines does not come close to the amount of life killed by oil spills and air pollution. Even without AGW the environmental and human impacts of oil is far greater than any renewable resource.
Quoting 88. help4u:

Don't forget the EPA flooding the river with sludge in Colorado and all the birds being killed by wind mills used for power. Also don't forget the millions of dollars released to Iran by the current president that they in turn use to terrorize the world and blow people and things up, we could be oil independent by producing our own but we choose to buy oil from countries that kill and destroy and if allowed will get a nuclear bomb and will use it.I know you guys always talk doom and gloom here and just wanted to keep you updated with some gloomy facts that are never talked about on this site.


The EPA inherited that "sludge mess" from private mine companies, don't forget.
Hey, while we are at it - lets add in all the land, ocean, and freshwater that has been polluted by private oil/gas production?
Let's talk about Pritcher, OK - where tailings from private lead mines rendered the area uninhabitable - well, unless you don't mind the negative effects of lead poisoning over time.

I can pick cherries with the best of them!
Quoting 88. help4u:

Don't forget the EPA flooding the river with sludge in Colorado and all the birds being killed by wind mills used for power. Also don't forget the millions of dollars released to Iran by the current president that they in turn use to terrorize the world and blow people and things up, we could be oil independent by producing our own but we choose to buy oil from countries that kill and destroy and if allowed will get a nuclear bomb and will use it.I know you guys always talk doom and gloom here and just wanted to keep you updated with some gloomy facts that are never talked about on this site.

You talking about Canada? I mean they are, by far, the largest source for our oil imports but wanting a nuclear bomb? Not so much, I think.

Quoting 88. help4u:

Don't forget the EPA flooding the river with sludge in Colorado and all the birds being killed by wind mills used for power. Also don't forget the millions of dollars released to Iran by the current president that they in turn use to terrorize the world and blow people and things up, we could be oil independent by producing our own but we choose to buy oil from countries that kill and destroy and if allowed will get a nuclear bomb and will use it.I know you guys always talk doom and gloom here and just wanted to keep you updated with some gloomy facts that are never talked about on this site.


Oh the birds, don't let facts get in the way of your denier talking points.

"Wind farms kill roughly 0.27 birds per GWh.
Nuclear plants kill about 0.6 birds per GWh. (2.2x wind)
Fossil-fueled power stations kill about 9.4 birds per GWh. (34.8x wind)" Link

Quoting 93. kestrel68:


You talking about Canada? I mean they are, by far, the largest source for our oil imports but wanting a nuclear bomb? Not so much, I think.




You're talking to a well known science denier. He's the type of person where you could set his *** on fire, tell him his *** is on fire, show him a video of his *** on fire, get a team of scientists to put together a peer review scientific article stating with very high confidence that his *** is on fire, and he would point to his head and say "My head ain't burning so it's a hoax!"

He lives in his own reality and there isn't anything that anyone can do or say that will ever change that.
Quoting 96. 62901IL:

WHAT THE HELL IS THIS

A report on the West Virginia flooding. What do you mean, lol?
Quoting 97. TropicalAnalystwx13:


A report on the West Virginia flooding. What do you mean, lol?


Just the reaction I had to the map in it.
You could say there's just a tad bit of consensus for Agatha next week based on the GEFS.



Quoting 41. TropicalAnalystwx13:


The atmosphere doesn't care about official definitions. The current pattern more resembles a La Nina, or Neutral at the very least, instead of El Nino.


That's true, it doesn't. I think the official definition is to ensure there is a teleconnection between the ocean and atmosphere. The current pattern resembles something we haven't really ever seen before to be honest - a thin tongue of slightly cooler water sandwiched between masses of 1-2C+ warm water.
I will stand by my call of the ATL season not being affected by this tongue of cooler water and more influenced by the giant masses of warm water connected to the strongly positive PDO.
As we are seeing the activity is confined to the Caribbean and far SW GOM - the waves are not getting any spin until they are pretty much in the Eastern Pacific basin.
It's an interesting situation...
Dear Moderators:

May I please ask a favor from this forum?
I'm in the NWS Blacksburg area and saw 5" of rain today in Wilkes County, NC. Lots of roads closed and mudslides. Considered a foothills county not the mountains. No damage just some basement flooding. I don't mind pushing water and digging ditches but when the lightning gets intense...ugh I just hate it.





Quoting 42. hotroddan:

But the point that I am trying to make is that the climate is always changing. We might go through a period of one thousand years of hot temperatures then go through another thousand year period with cold temps.
Thing is, we were going into a cold period .... then suddenly we have this warm uptick..... where in the past one could trace these periods, the warming we are currently experiencing doesn't fit the trend. It's anomalous. It's not THAT the earth is warming... it's HOW.
I've been through part of SE WW on Amtrak's Cardinal and Hoosier train. I can say that the Greenbriar River area certainly looked prone to flash flooding due to numerous narrow steep gullies which would quickly channel water to the main valley floor. If such short notice heavy rain events are going to become commonplace, it would behoove WV and other states nearby, like TN,VA, KY, PA, NC etc to invest in an early warning system that gets people to higher ground in a hurry ....
Friends came up from Santa Barbara and wanted to see a glacier before they all melt. Got a great view of the Coleman glacier, 5550' up Heliotrope ridge trail on Mt. Bakers NW side.



Perfect day!
Quoting 105. plantmoretrees:

Friends came up from Santa Barbara and wanted to see a glacier before they all melt. Got a great view of the Coleman glacier, 5550' up Heliotrope ridge trail on Mt. Bakers NW side.



Perfect day!
Great picture, too!
Quoting 58. HurricaneAndre:

Well what are the chances of anything on our side.
Let me put it this way, it would be a good time to switch to your alter ego's namesake AndreBrooks !!!!
Quoting 88. help4u:

Don't forget the EPA flooding the river with sludge in Colorado and all the birds being killed by wind mills used for power. Also don't forget the millions of dollars released to Iran by the current president that they in turn use to terrorize the world and blow people and things up, we could be oil independent by producing our own but we choose to buy oil from countries that kill and destroy and if allowed will get a nuclear bomb and will use it.I know you guys always talk doom and gloom here and just wanted to keep you updated with some gloomy facts that are never talked about on this site.
You comments are increasingly hypocritical and contradictory.
Looks like the "Old Farmer's Almanac" prediction of a hurricane threat for Florida from July 4-6 is going to be a tad off.
Interesting area of moisture off Africa that shows some spin.
Quoting 104. BahaHurican:

I've been through part of SE WW on Amtrak's Cardinal and Hoosier train. I can say that the Greenbriar River area certainly looked prone to flash flooding due to numerous narrow steep gullies which would quickly channel water to the main valley floor. If such short notice heavy rain events are going to become commonplace, it would behoove WV and other states nearby, like TN,VA, KY, PA, NC etc to invest in an early warning system that gets people to higher ground in a hurry ....


We had a flash flood here just two weeks ago in central Tennessee. 1.75" of rain fell in under 30 minutes. The debris line from the creek matched The Great Nashville Flood of 2010. Impressive stuff. No damage, apart from maintenance on the "bridge" that crosses the creek.
Quoting 99. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You could say there's just a tad bit of consensus for Agatha next week based on the GEFS.






I'm sorry, I do not believe in your liberal talk of "consensus". Haven't seen no dar hurricanes in my neck of the woods, I ain't believin' that model, besides, the models are never right.

;)
Last Thursday night we hit heavy rain about 9 PM traveling northward on I-95 around Rocky Mount, NC. The radar was lit up well back into WV. We had to pull off the road.

I left from Frederick, MD Sunday and drove the back roads through Harper's Ferry, WV to I-81 south to I -77. Most people I talked to over the weekend had no idea of the flooding that happened just a few hours drive away.

Quoting 90. guygee:

I was driving US 81 last Thursday in NW VA for 260 miles, it was packed with trucks, RVs and tourists in a light to moderate rain. I doubt that most on the road had any idea of the disaster taking place in the higher mountains over the state line that day. My heart goes out to the families and friends.
Quoting 112. Astrometeor:



I'm sorry, I do not believe in your liberal talk of "consensus". Haven't seen no dar hurricanes in my neck of the woods, I ain't believin' that model, besides, the models are never right.

;)

Them dun hurricane scientists funded by this here government are makin up those so called hurricanes to tax us common man and make them rich folk. Hah dat "hurricane" damage is just a cycle of destroyed coastlines and rebuilt coastline.
Quoting 99. TropicalAnalystwx13:

You could say there's just a tad bit of consensus for Agatha next week based on the GEFS.





I'd say it's just a little more than a tad
Quoting 114. MrTornadochase:


Them dun hurricane scientists funded by this here government are makin up those so called hurricanes to tax us common man and make them rich folk. Hah dat "hurricane" damage is just a cycle of destroyed coastlines and rebuilt coastline no cause just a cycle.
Thousands without power after Monday night thunderstorms



Thunderstorms on Monday evening (June 27) knocked out power for thousands of New Orleans-area residents, according to Entergy's outage map. Most of the outages are clustered in the Lower Garden District and the Irish Channel, with more than 2,700 affected customers.

A large outage in Algiers appeared to have been fixed, with fewer than 40 customers still without power as of 9:45 p.m.

An outage in Harvey affected more than 500 customers, and dozens more were affected by outages in Westwego and Kenner.

Quoting 115. MrTornadochase:


I'd say it's just a little more than a tad

Sarcasm, bud. That's an insanely strong signal for the long range. MJO/CCKW influence increases predictability though.
119. MahFL
In the Atlantic basin the brown is going away really fast ( green is better for cyclone formation ) :



120. MahFL
Already affecting the east Pacific :

"Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for some gradual development of the disturbance through
this weekend".
Upon reflection, I understand help4u's concern for birds. So, a movement should be started removing all those things that are the leading causes of bird deaths. Looks as if cats, building windows, and communication towers will have to go. Oh, and fossil fuels too.

Fig. 1. Avian deaths per year in the United States, 2009. Source [1]: and [34]. When 

Fig-1-Avian-deaths-per-year-in-the-United-States- 2009

The graph is derived from a very preliminary examination of estimating bird mortality in the United States from a variety of sources.
Guys, I think the Atlantic is sick. We need to find a cure to get it back going normal again before we lose hurricane season forever.
Quoting 122. HurricaneAndre:

Guys, I think the Atlantic is sick. We need to find a cure to get it back going normal again before we lose hurricane season forever.

Take two of these a day and come back and see me in 2 weeks if you don't get a T.S.
Quoting 122. HurricaneAndre:

Guys, I think the Atlantic is sick. We need to find a cure to get it back going normal again before we lose hurricane season forever.


Andre, it's not late September. Here's the average date for the formation of our 5th named storm in the Atlantic.

5 Aug 31

Is it Aug 31 yet? No. Calm down buddy.

Refer to here for more stats

:)
Quoting 123. PedleyCA:


Take two of these a day and come back and see me in 2 weeks if you don't get a T.S.
The Atlantic would be pleased.
Quoting 124. Astrometeor:



Andre, it's not late September. Here's the average date for the formation of our 5th named storm in the Atlantic.

5 Aug 31

Is it Aug 31 yet? No. Calm down buddy.

Refer to here for more stats

:)
Ok. It's just we had an active start, and with the mjo pulse coming in and the Pacific getting the big ones and omg. What am I doing.
Quoting 93. kestrel68:


You talking about Canada? I mean they are, by far, the largest source for our oil imports but wanting a nuclear bomb? Not so much, I think.


I don't need a nuclear bomb I just need a good cyber computer turn the lights off for say 14 days maybe 28 depending how fast things go

j/k

Two more days of DOOM, today was 94.7F here, 98.1 @KRAL, and 95.2 @Indian Hills PWS
humidity only got down to 31% here.
slow in the tropics its the hurry up and wait model
Hey Ped... I hear next week is another triple digit week for you though.

My Alaska Article of the day:

thanks-to-climate-change-the-arctic-is-turning-gr een
Quoting 128. PedleyCA:


Two more days of DOOM, today was 94.7F here, 98.1 @KRAL, and 95.2 @Indian Hills PWS
humidity only got down to 31% here.
felt like 95 here today with heat index ped we got maybe 3 or 4 mm of rain last night first rain In quite some time more rain later in the week may give us about 10 mm my pws shows a total of 64 mm for the month most of that come from the one thundershower we had earlier in the month
Quoting 130. Dakster:

Hey Ped... I hear next week is another triple digit week for you though.

My Alaska Article of the day:

thanks-to-climate-change-the-arctic-is-turning-gr een

Don't see it, only a shit load of mid 90's
Quoting 131. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

felt like 95 here today with heat index ped we got maybe 3 or 4 mm of rain last night first rain In quite some time more rain later in the week may give us about 10 mm my pws shows a total of 64 mm for the month most of that come from the one thundershower we had earlier in the month


That is 64mm more than I got...
There is a mid level circulation by Honduras east coast and half over water, it looks like it is at the surface and has sustained convection all day.
The Nws has confirmed the new 102F record @Audubon Park from yesterday.
India Meteorological Department Meteorological
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION ARB01-2016
8:30 AM IST June 28 2016
===============================

At 3:00 AM UTC, The depression over north Arabian Sea moved nearly westwards and lays centered over northwest Arabian Sea near 21.3N 62.5E, about 740 km west southwest of Porbandar (42830), Gujarat and 240 km east northeast of Masirah (41288), Oman.

The system would continue to move nearly westwards slowly towards Oman coast during next 24 hours.

The convection shows weak organization. The convective clouds are sheared towards west due to high vertical wind shear (25-35 knots). According to Dvorak technique, the vortex lay centered over northwest Arabian Sea and northeastern Oman within 21.0N 62.5E. The Dvorak intensity is T1.5. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lay over the area between 8.5N 10 23.0N and west of 63.5E. The lowest cloud top temperature is -81.0C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 25 knots with gusts of 35 knots. The estimated central pressure of the depression is 993 hPa.

Additional Information
===================
The sea surface temperature is 30-31C, ocean thermal energy is about 50-75kj/cm2. However, the sea surface temperature and ocean thermal energy gradually decreases towards the west. The low level convergence is about 20 x10-5 second-1 and the maxima lies to the south of the system center. The upper level divergence is about 20x10-5 second-1 and the maxima lies to the southwest of the system center. The low level relative vorticity is about 100x10-6 second-1, and maximum value lies to the south of the system center. The vertical wind shear is high (25-35 knots) around system center and is limiting the intensification of the system. The upper tropospheric ridge lies along 27.0N. Thus, it is providing favorable poleward outflow and steering the system westwards. Further, it would move nearly westwards during next 24 hours slowly as a trough in westerlies will limit its further westward movement. After 24 hours, it will experience the colder sea surface temperature, lower ocean thermal energy and high vertical wind shear. Therefore, the system will weaken gradually over the sea off Oman coast after 24 hours. Under that scenario, the remnant low pressure area would move northeastwards under the influence of southwest monsoon current and move towards Gujarat and adjoining Pakistan coast.
Failing sinks

From fire breaks to fire hazards Human activity, climate change are transforming the world’s peatlands

Date:
June 27, 2016
Source:
McMaster University
Summary:
The peat bogs of the world, once waterlogged repositories of dead moss, are being converted into fuel-packed fire hazards that can burn for months and generate deadly smoke.

Link
Britain Succumbs to Fear — Europe Shattered by Deteriorating Physical and Political Climate

In Central India, during 2016, millions of farmers who have lost their livelihoods due to a persistent drought made worse by climate change are migrating to the cities. The climate change induced monsoonal delays and ever-worsening drought conditions forced this most recent wave of climate change refugees to make a stark choice — move or watch their families starve.

It’s a repeat of a scene that happened in Syria during 2006 through 2010, but on a much larger scale. A scene that will repeat again and again. In Bangladesh and the other low lying coastal and delta regions of the world, hundreds of millions will be uprooted by sea level rise. In the US Southwest, India, Africa, South America, the Middle East and Southern Europe hundreds of millions more will be uprooted by drought. All because we, as a global civilization, failed to work together to halt fossil fuel burning soon enough and prevent a temperature increase great enough to wreck cities, states, and regions and to start to destabilize human civilization.


Link


ISLAMABAD: The technical equipment and radars held by the ministry of climate change for weather forecast have gone outdated.

According to meteorological authorities’ radar working in Sialkot for weather forecast was installed in 1978 while the life span of every radar was 10 years. In Pakistan all the radars had become 20 years old and they were being still utilised. These could be harmful at any time as they were creating difficulties in providing information about weather forecast in terms of air weather.

Link
Lake Mead passing through historic milestone this evening, below elevation 1,072 for first time since filling
9:58 PM - 27 Jun 2016

Link
I've got a financial question: Will a decrease of a small businesses' corporation tax from 19% to 15% for one year be very helpful for entrepreneurship?
PS. This is a bill proposed by our government.
PS2. Just to clarify - it's NOT a reduction e.g. from 1 Jan 2017 to 1 Jan 2018 - any business will benefit 12 months after its formation.
U.S., Canada and Mexico vow to get half their electricity from clean power by 2025

The leaders of the United States, Canada and Mexico will pledge on Wednesday that by 2025 half of their overall electricity generation will come from clean power sources, according to administration officials.

The commitment — which will be a joint one, rather than an individual commitment by each nation — represents an aggressive target given the reliance by the United States and Mexico on fossil fuels for much of their electricity supply. Roughly 59 percent of Canada’s electricity is generated by hydropower operations, with another 16 percent coming from nuclear plants, so it has already surpassed the targeted benchmark.

Link
Brexit and Trump: When Fear Triumphs Over Evidence

The psychology behind why so many people are willing to ignore the experts

In case you missed it, on June 24th the UK voted to leave the European Union. This was despite the overwhelming number of experts saying that this would be a terrible idea. Yet, when the experts spoke, clearly only 48% of the population listened.

Brexit proponent and politician Michael Gove, even made it part of his platform to fight the nerds; “people in this country have had enough of experts.” Because, what do experts know about things, right? Wrong.


Link

Quoting 130. Dakster:

Hey Ped... I hear next week is another triple digit week for you though.

My Alaska Article of the day:

thanks-to-climate-change-the-arctic-is-turning-gr een
Good article for its news content but the author misses the point on analysis. Increasing leaf area and resulting increased evapotranspiration is most likely a positive feedback for Arctic amplification.
Good Morning; the Conus forecast for today and current look:


Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Valid 12Z Tue Jun 28 2016 - 12Z Thu Jun 30 2016

...Severe thunderstorms and heavy rain possible across portions of the
Northeast and the central/northern plains...

...Isolated thunderstorms possible for parts of the West, with
temperatures remaining above average...





And the TCFP for the global tropics and global sst's; you can pretty much see how hot the waters are where there is oceanic t-storm activity across the global ITCZ as well as those very warm SST's in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea:

And note that the waters in/near the Cape Verde Islands and just to their West are starting to warm up; it was a few degrees cooler there for the past several weeks:




147. MahFL
Quoting 143. RobertWC:

... This was despite the overwhelming number of experts saying that this would be a terrible idea.


Sometimes the experts are out of touch with "peoples" feelings on matters.
148. MahFL
Quoting 146. weathermanwannabe:

And the TCFP for the global tropics and global sst's; you can pretty much see how hot the waters are where there is oceanic t-storm activity across the global ITCZ as well as those very warm SST's in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea...


Warm water is just one of several factors you need for tropical cyclone formation.
And looking towards Africa towards the East, the waves continue to move off of the Continent:






Quoting 148. MahFL:



Warm water is just one of several factors you need for tropical cyclone formation.


Just noting the very warm SST's this year across the Global MDR with the Central Atlantic slowly starting to play catch-up.
Quoting 122. HurricaneAndre:

Guys, I think the Atlantic is sick. We need to find a cure to get it back going normal again before we lose hurricane season forever.

it's only june, and honestly? there are other basins where you can track hurricanes if there are none in the Atlantic.
152. MahFL
Good news, global stock markets are recovering after the 2 days of losses, the FTSE eg was up 2.4 %.
Quoting 147. MahFL:



Sometimes the experts are out of touch with "peoples" feelings on matters.

More often the reverse is true. As in this case.
Well I love to see a named storm active on my birthday but it looks like I'm gonna miss it this year!

17 years now spent and 8 of those spent tracking storms since I recieved a tracking chart for my 9th birthday


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A westward-moving tropical wave located over Central America is
expected to move into the eastern North Pacific later today, and
then induce a broad area of low pressure south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec by Wednesday or Thursday. Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for some gradual development of the
disturbance through this weekend while the system moves westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent
Not to change the subject but anybody know why the new GFS plot for 10 meter wind 2 meter temp stops at +18C? 18C is only 64F. Maybe intended purpose for winter?
Quoting 144. guygee:

Good article for its news content but the author misses the point on analysis. Increasing leaf area and resulting increased evapotranspiration is most likely a positive feedback for Arctic amplification.

No, it's all lies : the satellite imagery used to be only black and white, and now they can see green too the corrupted scientists tell us the Earth is greener. Lies, I tell you, lies ! ;-)

The picture is already obsolete. 2015 is the new hottest year ever and guess what ? 2016 will replace it :-D
One could still argue all this added greenery will eventually pump up CO2 from the air and balance the added human emissions this way... Maybe, but certainly not until many thousands of years have passed, sorry birds.
Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds
NASA - April 26, 2016.
"An international team of 32 authors from 24 institutions in eight countries led the effort (...)"
the gulf is wide open for any thing too get going has wind shear is vary low 5 too 10kt

Quoting 147. MahFL:



Sometimes the experts are out of touch with "peoples" feelings on matters.
Feelings? SMH. Usually bad things happen when people govern by feelings over logic and reason. Brexit is one in a long line of poor decisions made based on "feelings".
Quoting 148. MahFL:



Warm water is just one of several factors you need for tropical cyclone formation.
Obviously, we now have that one factor.... how long before the other ones fall into line? 5 weeks?
nicaragua blob has been very persistent. no doubt the eastern part of that country has been drenched by the slow moving tw. no volcano surfing today
Quoting 80. justmehouston:

I always find the sun interesting, stumbled across a couple of articles. The second one is just kind of for fun as not sure about a "mini ice age" But I did enjoy their graphics. Was trying to remember if 2009 was considered an analog year for this hurricane season.

THE SUN IS STILL BLANK: For the 5th day in a row, the face of the sun is blank--no sunspots
Sunspot number: 0
What is the sunspot number?
Updated 27 Jun 2016

Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 4 days
2016 total: 8 days (4%)
2015 total: 0 days (0%)
2014 total: 1 day (<1%)
2013 total: 0 days (0%)
2012 total: 0 days (0%)
2011 total: 2 days (<1%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Updated 27 Jun 2016

Link

Link



Well I'm not sure if it's a coincidence, but at least down here in Florida, the winters of 2009 and 2010 were cooler than average.
Still pretty quiet in our area...
As the North American heatwave lingers on, another vision straight from hell ; current 5-day forecast maximum temperature (ClimateReanalyzer) in the Middle East / Arabian peninsula (F/C) :

It's the beginning of the hottest season of the year there, that lasts from late May to late September. Temperatures in the region have set new all-time high records in several countries last year during summer.
- Without Emissions Cuts, Summer Heat Will Get Even Deadlier
- The Social Consequences of India's Heat Waves Spell Doom for the Working Poor This article is not just about India.
Quoting 150. weathermanwannabe:



Just noting the very warm SST's this year across the Global MDR with the Central Atlantic slowly starting to play catch-up.
I know what you meant.Their smarter than thou rhetoric is why they've earned a special place on a special list.
Quoting 165. washingtonian115:
I know what you meant.Their smarter than thou rhetoric is why they've earned a special place on a special list.
A list that, in my case, doesn't work right.
Quoting 122. HurricaneAndre:

Guys, I think the Atlantic is sick. We need to find a cure to get it back going normal again before we lose hurricane season forever.


I wish this were true but it isn't. I still expect a hurricane season this summer and fall with threats to my home, hearth and family here in DC metro.
Quoting 138. RobertWC:

Britain Succumbs to Fear — Europe Shattered by Deteriorating Physical and Political Climate

In Central India, during 2016, millions of farmers who have lost their livelihoods due to a persistent drought made worse by climate change are migrating to the cities. The climate change induced monsoonal delays and ever-worsening drought conditions forced this most recent wave of climate change refugees to make a stark choice — move or watch their families starve.

It’s a repeat of a scene that happened in Syria during 2006 through 2010, but on a much larger scale. A scene that will repeat again and again. In Bangladesh and the other low lying coastal and delta regions of the world, hundreds of millions will be uprooted by sea level rise. In the US Southwest, India, Africa, South America, the Middle East and Southern Europe hundreds of millions more will be uprooted by drought. All because we, as a global civilization, failed to work together to halt fossil fuel burning soon enough and prevent a temperature increase great enough to wreck cities, states, and regions and to start to destabilize human civilization.


Link
Sounds catastrophic.
Quoting 82. wartsttocs:



I am really sure about the "mini ice age" thing. Not going to happen anytime soon.


I did find it notable that the ice blitz theory that came out in the early 70s was reinforced from the University of Wisconsin, particularly Reid Bryson ("climates of hunger" I think his popular press book was titled")

Wisconsin also tracked accumulated growing degree days for the corn crop with some interest until some time in the early 2000s when
it became of less concern. Prior to then there was often concern about not getting enough to fully mature the crop.
Quoting 166. aquak9:

A list that, in my case, doesn't work right.


Have you tried turning it off, then back on again? :)
Also noting the spin off of the Carolinas; there is some broad surface vort but the shear is too high in that region at the moment: just grasping at the few June straws out there.......................................... :)




Quoting 152. MahFL:

Good news, global stock markets are recovering after the 2 days of losses, the FTSE eg was up 2.4 %.
That is good news.
174. MahFL
Quoting 159. SouthTampa:

Feelings? SMH. Usually bad things happen when people govern by feelings over logic and reason. Brexit is one in a long line of poor decisions made based on "feelings".


Why is it a poor decision ?
Quoting 147. MahFL:



Sometimes the experts are out of touch with "peoples" feelings on matters.


James L. Petigru - (May 10, 1789 – March 9, 1863) was an American lawyer, politician, and jurist in South Carolina. ............. He was also known for opposing nullification and, in 1860, state secession.


After South Carolina seceded in 1860, Petigru famously remarked, "South Carolina is too small for a republic and too large for an insane asylum."
Quoting 174. MahFL:



Why is it a poor decision ?


Most of the electorate was uniformed of both what they were voting on and the consequences of such a leave. The Leave campaign was based on a large amount of propaganda and fear mongering that made unrealistic promises, like more investment in the NHS which was admitted as a lie the next morning by the UKIP leader. Most see this as a far right power grab by a previously marginalized political power. The fallout from this, including renegotiated trade deals, immigration and travel policy, increased far right nativist ire towards non Brits, the impending possible exit of Scotland and Northern Ireland from the U.K., the uncertainty and global turmoil that a two year exit would cause not even taking into account the possible dissolution of what we know the U.K. to be, will be not very good in the short to medium term, in the long run it is anyone's guess, but if history shows us something, it's that the hopes for this being "good" is unlikely.

I wonder if that energy will just sit there this year and most of the storms head straight into the Yucatan into the BOC like we saw in 2010.
Quoting 174. MahFL:



Why is it a poor decision ?
What Naga wrote pretty much sums it up. Also, we can look back in history and see what kind of trouble such feelings-based judgments has caused. People so often look to others as the cause of their woes, rather than having a little introspection. Ultimately one group blames the other and when unabated, this leads to genocide at worst.
Quoting 174. MahFL:



Why is it a poor decision ?

So if it rains, and you complain because you don't want to get wet, you vote, of course, for a plunge into the lake, just because you don't want to get wet.
No wonder they always say 'we didn't know' afterwards.

If you don't understand why that 'decision' was moronic, just wait a while. As, e.g., the famed London banking sector is hauling ass to EU countries - of course.
180. MahFL
Quoting 176. Naga5000:



... short to medium term, in the long run it is anyone's guess, but if history shows us something, it's that the hopes for this being "good" is unlikely...




The markets, for one, are already recovering...
Quoting 176. Naga5000:



Most of the electorate was uniformed of both what they were voting on and the consequences of such a leave. The Leave campaign was based on a large amount of propaganda and fear mongering that made unrealistic promises, like more investment in the NHS which was admitted as a lie the next morning by the UKIP leader. Most see this as a far right power grab by a previously marginalized political power. The fallout from this, including renegotiated trade deals, immigration and travel policy, increased far right nativist ire towards non Brits, the impending possible exit of Scotland and Northern Ireland from the U.K., the uncertainty and global turmoil that a two year exit would cause not even taking into account the possible dissolution of what we know the U.K. to be, will be not very good in the short to medium term, in the long run it is anyone's guess, but if history shows us something, it's that the hopes for this being "good" is unlikely.




Well I hope the good it does do will dissuade others to do the same thing.
Quoting 180. MahFL:



The markets, for one, are already recovering...

Yes, they are hoping the Brits will somehow turn back on their decision. This hope isn't completely void.
But below the radar capital is racing out of the country. And money is being printed. And I think the FTSE is already showing an inflation effect.
Also the initial market losses are nowhere near repaired, and they were as a 'krach' actually bigger than 2008.
Quoting 181. ElConando:



Well I hope the good it does do will dissuade others to do the same thing.
LOL!
Quoting 180. MahFL:



The markets, for one, are already recovering...


Recovering? The market lost 3 trillion globally over two days, a record amount of money for any two day period. The GBP is still only 1.33 to the U.S. dollar, the Euro 1.1. Both the Barclays and The Royal Bank of Scotland had to have their shares automatically stopped from being traded after losses triggered a freeze. Talk to us in months and then we can assess what damage has been done. 3 trillion does not get made up after 1 stabilizing day where the bottom didn't just fall out again. And considering Moody's is about to downgrade the U.K.'s credit rating and the uncertainty involving Scotland, N. Ireland, and if the U.K. will even trigger article 51 to leave (political suicide for anyone who does it) or has the authority to do so without the approval of the Scottish and N. Ireland parliament, and this does not bode well for making up the losses in a timely fashion. UKIP and the Leave campaign had no strategy for if they actually got the vote. There is no Brexit strategy, just confusion.
Quoting 174. MahFL:



Why is it a poor decision ?

I'll add this. Imagine growing up in the US thinking that you could move anywhere in the States that you wanted, get a job and start a life. Then one day you wake up to the news that your options have been suddenly narrowed to the State of Wisconsin. Nothing against Wisconsin, it's a great place to live, but think about some 21 year old heading into their senior year at UW-Madison who realizes that 75% of those job recruiters who were on campus last year won't be there this year because they represent out of state companies. I'm thinking that lots of young people living in Britain just suffered a serious narrowing of their horizons.

186. MahFL
Quoting 182. cRRKampen:


Also the initial market losses are nowhere near repaired, and they were as a 'krach' actually bigger than 2008.


Market recovery is usually slower than loss, as long as it keeps recovering the markets should be fine.
It does seem now that some assumptions and promises the Leave campaign presented were not exactly 100% truthful, that may allow Parliament to annul the vote, or have a new one, we'll see.
187. MahFL
Quoting 185. kestrel68:


... I'm thinking that lots of young people living in Britain just suffered a serious narrowing of their horizons...




No one knows that, the new agreements have not been thrashed out yet.
Quoting 184. Naga5000:



Recovering? The market lost 3 trillion globally over two days, a record amount of money for any two day period. The GBP is still only 1.33 to the U.S. dollar, the Euro 1.1. Both the Barclays and The Royal Bank of Scotland had to have their shares automatically stopped from being traded after losses triggered a freeze. Talk to us in months and then we can assess what damage has been done. 3 trillion does not get made up after 1 stabilizing day where the bottom didn't just fall out again. And considering Moody's is about to downgrade the U.K.'s credit rating and the uncertainty involving Scotland, N. Ireland, and if the U.K. will even trigger article 51 to leave (political suicide for anyone who does it) or has the authority to do so without the approval of the Scottish and N. Ireland parliament, and this does not bode well for making up the losses in a timely fashion.Maybe your upset that left wing government that had taken the people's money lost this money i know if it was evil capitalist you would not be upset.Just follow the money Soros invested everything over there.The blow is to the global elite!Sorry for your lost.
Your just upset because Soros and the global elite lost the money they stole from the people!The people voted to get out of a global elite government who wants to control everything we do as people.Sorry for your loss and the power that came with it.
#188. Help4u, if you are going to spew baseless Soros conspiracy and insults, maybe at least use the quote feature correctly so it doesn't look like I actually typed that drivel. TIA.
Popular Nationalism is nothing new across the pond.

Imagine if Brexit could have occurred in India in 1916.

See what I did here?
Our moody rating was downgraded and no one said nothing maybe because global elite Obama was in charge along with his elite billionaires around the world.Funny how that works a vote for freedom was great!!
The derp.....it be exceedingly deep this day.

We may have to post a watch soon.
Quoting 186. MahFL:



Market recovery is usually slower than loss, as long as it keeps recovering the markets should be fine.
It does seem now that some assumptions and promises the Leave campaign presented were not exactly 100% truthful, that may allow Parliament to annul the vote, or have a new one, we'll see.

'were not exactly 100% truthful' ah do I like retorics like understatements...
That is a possibility, but it is slim. There is another: the referendum is formally non-binding, and parliament could vote to dismiss it.
But frankly I haven't a clue what they're doing there.
Later guys i see the socialist are ready to attack come back when something tropical happens.Try to enjoy your day beautiful day out in Indiana!
Quoting 192. help4u:

Our moody rating was downgraded and no one said nothing maybe because global elite Obama was in charge along with his elite billionaires around the world.Funny how that works a vote for freedom was great!!

Yeah, freedom to adopt TTIP (the UK will not resist the US!) and freedom to be sucked by own corporations unregulated.
The British workers must be quite happy with the business secretary having talks with business organizations today without, of course, inviting the trade unions. Enjoy their freedom, be happy for them.
Quoting 185. kestrel68:


I'll add this. Imagine growing up in the US thinking that you could move anywhere in the States that you wanted, get a job and start a life. Then one day you wake up to the news that your options have been suddenly narrowed to the State of Wisconsin. Nothing against Wisconsin, it's a great place to live, but think about some 21 year old heading into their senior year at UW-Madison who realizes that 75% of those job recruiters who were on campus last year won't be there this year because they represent out of state companies. I'm thinking that lots of young people living in Britain just suffered a serious narrowing of their horizons.


That's what they call 'freedom' because the elderly (who just destroyed a chunk of their own pensions) say so.
GFS apparently has a near category 5 Hurricane Agatha in the EPac...
Quoting 180. MahFL:



The markets, for one, are already recovering...


Yep, my cat died, so I threw her off the 4th floor balcony , it looked about the same.

Actually the problems in Europe are a lot deeper than the British Exit. In fact, if some banks in France and Italy that were in bad shape got not gotten caught on the wrong side of some derivative bets, it would all be peachy keen.

The problem is that the weak banks in Italy and France did get caught leaning wrong and the EU rules prohibit them being recapitalized. The Eurozone, like Japan, is a bug looking for windshield. I think they found it.

Cheers
Qazulight
Every nation gets the government is deserves

J. de M.
N Atlantic surface map.



202. bwi
We're no longer #1!

OK, tied for lowest sea ice extent for this time of year. It has been very warm in the Arctic this year, and measures of ice volume, area, and extent were at or near record lows entering peak melting season. But June was pretty cloudy, so the impact of peak insolation reduced. That no doubt helped save a lot of ice compared with May when high pressure and sun were more common. Hopefully, July will continue cloudy and more ice saved. (By August the sun angle is so low that additional melting is mostly just from warm air off the continents and warm ocean water melting the ice from below, and melt season ends and refreezing starts in September.)

Quoting 189. help4u:

Your just upset because Soros and the global elite lost the money they stole from the people!The people voted to get out of a global elite government who wants to control everything we do as people.Sorry for your loss and the power that came with it.


Finally someone on here get's it....
and I'm Very Happy for them

Taco :D
Quoting 200. Grothar:

Every nation gets the government is deserves

J. de M.

Ouch
I'm not complaining about the dollar being stronger against the Pound and Euro! I never did like it when the Euro came out, seems the dollar has always struggled against it making vacations to Europe more expensive.
Growing Arctic carbon emissions could go unobserved

A new NASA-led study has found that in at least part of the Arctic, scientists are not doing as good a job of detecting changes in carbon dioxide during the long, dark winter months as they are at monitoring changes during the short summer. That's a concern, because growing Arctic plants can act as a brake on global warming rates by removing carbon from the atmosphere, but increasing cold-season emissions could overwhelm the braking effect and accelerate global warming.

Read more at: Link
Quoting 197. cRRKampen:

That's what they call 'freedom' because the elderly (who just destroyed a chunk of their own pensions) say so.


Freedom's just another word for nothin' left to lose.

-K.K.

208. OKsky
Quoting 195. help4u:

Later guys i see the socialist are ready to attack come back when something tropical happens.Try to enjoy your day beautiful day out in Indiana!

yeah... don't forget to monitor the NWS and NHC's .gov websites so you know when something tropical happens. Till then keep your eyes out for socialists. =P
Quoting 207. kestrel68:



Freedom's just another word for nothin' left to lose.

-K.K.



That will be our near future freedom.
I actually meant the freedom to be exploited. Or shot at.
Quoting 205. 69Viking:

I'm not complaining about the dollar being stronger against the Pound and Euro! I never did like it when the Euro came out, seems the dollar has always struggled against it making vacations to Europe more expensive.

Oh man, even more immigrants...
Quoting 201. Patrap:

N Atlantic surface map.






Looks like a new Battle of Britain.
Quoting 211. rmbjoe1954:



Looks like a new Battle of Britain is shaping up.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.