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Weird Olaf Dies; Huge Tides Swamp SE U.S.; Indonesia Ties All-Time Heat Record

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 3:33 PM GMT on October 27, 2015

The weird and remarkable Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season of 2015 is on the wane, and we don't have any active systems anywhere on the planet to discuss today. On Tuesday morning, Tropical Storm Olaf met oblivion over the cool 25°C waters between Hawaii and California, ending a long run as a most unusual tropical cyclone. Back on October 19, Olaf set a record for becoming the most southerly major hurricane ever observed in the Eastern Pacific, at 9.9°N latitude. And on Monday night, Olaf performed another rare feat--crossing from the Central Pacific into Eastern Pacific. Moving from southwest to northeast, Olaf crossed the magic line of 140°W, which marks the boundary between the two ocean areas. The Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) in Hawaii stopped issuing advisories on the storm, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami resumed issuing them. This was the second time Olaf had crossed 140°W--Olaf passed from the Eastern Pacific into the Central Pacific on October 20, causing a reverse hand-off of responsibility, from NHC to CPHC. Olaf is the only named storm ever to require a double hand-off of advisory issuing responsibility between the two hurricane centers. The only other storm to cross from the Central Pacific in the Eastern Pacific was an unnamed 1975 storm. Earlier this month, Tropical Storm Oho almost did so, becoming post-tropical just 50 miles before crossing 140°W from southwest to northeast. Since 1949, no late season (October or later) system has formed south of Hawaii and moved to the northeast; we know two storms this year that have done that, Oho and Olaf. This year's unusual activity in both the Eastern Pacific and Central Pacific has been due to unusually low wind shear and record-warm ocean temperatures caused by a strong El Niño event combined with the long-term global rise in temperatures underway.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Tropical Storm Olaf as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on Monday afternoon, October 26, 2015, as the storm was about to cross 140°W from the Central Pacific into the Eastern Pacific. At the time, Olaf had top sustained winds of 60 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Earth's next tropical cyclone: an Arabian Sea storm?
In the Arabian Sea, Invest 94A is growing more organized, and is likely to become a named storm later this week as it heads westwards towards Oman and Yemen, according to recent runs of the GFS and European models.

The Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific are quiet, with none of our reliable models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis showing anything developing over the next five days. I'm not expecting any more named storms to form in the Atlantic this year, but I expect we'll get 1 - 2 more named storms in the Eastern Pacific and 2 - 4 more storms in the Northwest Pacific.


Figure 2. Predictions of the surface wind field of Invest 94A on Monday, November 2, 2015, from the 00Z Tuesday, October 27, 2015 runs of the GFS and European (ECMWF) models. Image constructed from our wundermap by TWC's Stu Ostro.

Indonesia ties all-time national heat record
Along with life-threatening amounts of smoke from agricultural burning during a very strong El Niño, Indonesians are dealing with extreme heat. On Tuesday, the airport station at Semarang, Indonesia, soared to a high of 39.5°C (103.1°F). This ties the national record for the hottest temperature ever observed in Indonesia, set in Cirebon Jatiwangi in 2006. These data come from international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. As documented in our October 21, 2015 post, there were fourteen nations or territories that had set or tied all-time heat records this year as of October 21. Indonesia brings that tally to sixteen, since Meteo France announced a new all-time high temperature record for French Guiana was set on October 22, 2015, when the mercury hit 37.8°C (100°F) at Saint Laurent du Moroni.

As El Niño-related drought intensifies its chokehold on the region, Indonesia’s pall of smoke and haze is only getting worse, and the effects are accumulating. Six Indonesian provinces have declared states of emergency, and since July more than 500,000 acute respiratory infections have been reported. Despite the health catastrophe, there is no national ban on agricultural fires. A spokesperson for Indonesia’s meteorological agency, Sutopo Puro Nugroho, said: “This is a crime against humanity of extraordinary proportions…But now is not the time to point fingers but to focus on how we can deal with this quickly.” As we noted earlier this month, the fires are Earth’s most expensive weather-related disaster of 2015. The Indonesian government now estimates that the total costs to the government are at least $30 billion (US dollars).


Figure 3. Motorists ride on a road as thick haze from forest fires shrouds the city in Palangkaraya, Central Borneo, Indonesia, on Tuesday, October 27, 2015. The haze has blanketed parts of western Indonesia for about two months and affected neighboring countries like Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. Image credit: Associated Press.


Figure 4. An Indonesian soldier puts out a fire in Kampar in the Indonesian province of Riau on September 18, 2015. Image credit: Adek Berry/AFP/Getty Images.

Highest tides in decades sweep into Charleston, Savannah
A predicted high tide came in substantially stronger than expected this morning across much of the southeast U.S., especially along the South Carolina and Georgia coasts. Near Savannah, the Fort Pulaski station reported a tide of 10.43 feet above mean lower low water (MLLW). Even including hurricanes, this is the third highest tide at Fort Pulaski since records began in 1935, beaten only by 10.47’ on August 11, 1940 and 10.87’ on October 15, 1947 (thank to Nick Wiltgen at The Weather Channel for these records). At Charleston, the high tide of 8.68’ this morning was the highest in 26 years, beaten by 8.84’ (January 1, 1987), 10.27’ (August 11, 1940), and 12.56’ during Hurricane Hugo (September 21, 1989). Motorists in the Charleston area were asked to avoid traveling onto the peninsula this morning, with many roads blocked by accidents and/or high water.


Figure 5. Tidal records for October 24-27, 2015, at Fort Pulaski, Georgia, just southeast of Savannah. Image credit: NOAA Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

It doesn’t take a hurricane to produce historically high tides. In this case, the high water is the result of strong coastal flow from the northeast (which pushed water onshore due to the Ekman transport effect) combined with a perigean spring tide. The latter occurs when the moon is at the closest point to Earth in its monthly orbit (perigean tide) and also happens to be either new or full (spring tide). Increasing sea levels as a result of human-produced climate change, combined with land subsidence in some areas, are making such events progressively worse. A NOAA primer on perigean spring tides notes: “In some instances, perigean spring tides have coincided with a shift in offshore ocean circulation patterns and large scale shifts in wind that have resulted in unexpected coastal flooding. It is expected that occurrences of minor 'nuisance flooding' at the times of perigean spring tides will increase even more as sea level rises relative to the land.” In September, NOAA predicted that atmospheric patterns related to El Niño will tend to drive more water into the coastline this autumn and winter, possibly leading to record amounts of nuisance flooding, especially along the mid-Atlantic coast.

Jeff Masters (tropical); Bob Henson (Indonesia, Southeast tides]



Hurricane Flood Heat Sea level rise

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters.
Imagine what those Tides will do in 40 years.
Thank you..Looks like a rather dangerous path for the region.
the northern hemisphere cyclone season is waning, but there is an AOI southwest of the cape verdes which is reminiscent of the formation of Tomas in 2010
the tides have been higher in many locations......
we have had unusually high tides here also
is this a sign of the times?
Thanks for the update!
More like a sign of Humans stupidity to think adding 4 million tonnes of CO2 a day into the biosphere will not impact Human lives.
Convection is still looking good over Africa..

Stormy morning at Blue Mountain Beach in NW Florida.. thanks Patricia!
Small typo in the article:

"we now two storms this year that have done that, Oho and Olaf"

... should be:

"we know two storms this year that have done that, Oho and Olaf"
"Weird Olaf Dies"

Sounds like an indie film.

:D
Thanks doks!
Quoting 6. 19N81W:

the tides have been higher in many locations......
we have had unusually high tides here also
is this a sign of the times?
its a sign peeps are gonna get wet
Quoting 14. LongIslandBeaches:

"Weird Olaf Dies"

Sounds like an indie film.

:D

LOl,but wait,...... wasn't Olaf supposed to slam into North California????
Quoting 9. StormTrackerScott:

12Z Euro slams Olaf into Northern California as a strong system. This combined with a super strong ENSO is causing complete mayham in the models.

LOL! This pattern spells serious trouble for the US! Intense Olaf slamming into Northern California and this causes the jet to plunge south.




(quoted from previous blog)
Quoting 237. LargoFl:

was just reading the NASA earthquake report...kinda scary for the folks out in LA huh.....clipped this headline.........................There is a 99.9 percent chance of a magnitude-5 or greater earthquake striking within three years in the greater Los Angeles area, where a similar sized temblor caused more the $12 million in damage last year, according to a study by NASA and university researchers.



A temblor in the neighborhood of 5.0 for the LA area is more inconvenience than catastrophe, thanks to the changes in building codes in the last 30 years. I lived in Orange County and worked in Anaheim, only a handful of miles away from the epicenter of the Whittier/Narrows quake, it was 5.9, and while scary (our office building was on rockers) was minimal in damage. I think one person died when a brick fell off a building and onto their head, but I could be mixing up events.

For perspective - my ex was on his Nighthawk 450, waiting for a light to change, on an Irvine overpass. He thought it was his engine idling rough, then noticed the cars around him were rocking a bit.

The same or even smaller quake, in an urban or poverty-stricken part of the world with no quake building codes? That would be catastrophic. In LA? It's treated like a noteable thunderstorm in other parts of the US.
Quoting 17. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




Congrats on electing a Man not holding to the Powers that be.

Your long National nightmare is over.

Welcome to sanity.
Quoting 19. nonblanche:

(quoted from previous blog)
Quoting 237. LargoFl:

was just reading the NASA earthquake report...kinda scary for the folks out in LA huh.....clipped this headline.........................There is a 99.9 percent chance of a magnitude-5 or greater earthquake striking within three years in the greater Los Angeles area, where a similar sized temblor caused more the $12 million in damage last year, according to a study by NASA and university researchers.



A temblor in the neighborhood of 5.0 for the LA area is more inconvenience than catastrophe, thanks to the changes in building codes in the last 30 years. I lived in Orange County and worked in Anaheim, only a handful of miles away from the epicenter of the Whittier/Narrows quake, it was 5.9, and while scary (our office building was on rockers) was minimal in damage. I think one person died when a brick fell off a building and onto their head, but I could be mixing up events.

For perspective - my ex was on his Nighthawk 450, waiting for a light to change, on an Irvine overpass. He thought it was his engine idling rough, then noticed the cars around him were rocking a bit.

The same or even smaller quake, in an urban or poverty-stricken part of the world with no quake building codes? That would be catastrophic. In LA? It's treated like a noteable thunderstorm in other parts of the US.

thanks for that info, its good to see officials strengthened their building codes
Quoting 14. LongIslandBeaches:

"Weird Olaf Dies"

Sounds like an indie film.

:D


LOL! Thanks for the inspiration, LongIslandBeaches. I just tweeted accordingly (alluding to a blockbuster rather than an indie flick).

"Weird Olaf Dies": not "Frozen II," but the last chapter in a very odd hurricane's life

Quoting 21. Patrap:



Congrats on electing a Man not holding to the Powers that be.

Your long National nightmare is over.

Welcome to sanity.
I am happy my vote was right choice
94A:



HWRF:



GFS:



ECMWF:



A dangerous set up if the models are to verify, especially if the HWRF does.
Quoting 18. capeflorida:


LOl,but wait,...... wasn't Olaf supposed to slam into North California????



This was a ten day forecast. These sometimes don't verify exactly as output.

Quoting 6. 19N81W:

the tides have been higher in many locations......
we have had unusually high tides here also
is this a sign of the times?


Yes.
That was precisely my point!!! maybe I shouldn't be so sarcastic.

Quoting 26. georgevandenberghe:



This was a ten day forecast. These sometimes don't verify exactly as output.


Quoting 28. capeflorida:

That was precisely my point!!! maybe I shouldn't be so sarcastic.



I read the Euro outlook maps differently. Early on, the Euro showed a decaying low east of Hawaii for this date, with a midlatitude low at the California coast, not a hurricane. The GFS just blew it outright, altho at one point, the GFS did also show a decaying low east of Hawaii. Confusion and/or model failure.
Quoting 18. capeflorida:


LOl,but wait,...... wasn't Olaf supposed to slam into North California????

is there signs of colder air spilling down on the euro?
Quoting 31. Accu35blog:

is there signs of colder air spilling down on the euro?........ To the southeast
Outflow moisture shooting out over the California coast from remnant Olaf. Skies are overcast here in the SF Bay Area. Light returns on radar to the north, but likely virga. Front forecast to sweep thru this evening with some rain.
Thanks for the post on Olaf and the other stuff too. Excellent as usual...
Quoting 6. 19N81W:

the tides have been higher in many locations......
we have had unusually high tides here also
is this a sign of the times?


Yes.

In some places tides are lower, in some places they are higher, because global warming changes the patterns of sea currents well over their pre-global-warming variability.

On average it's still almost a wash, but the risks are not symmetric: higher tides in some places do far more damage than the reduction in damage where tides are lower. Existing infrastructure that got built expecting the old patterns is at risk.

And mitigation of all this damage caused by rising CO2 levels is being blocked in the US by the Republican party, mostly just to give the Koch brothers and their ilk more profits on their coal investments - which is murderously perverse if you think about it...
Quoting 18. capeflorida:


LOl,but wait,...... wasn't Olaf supposed to slam into North California????



I forgot about that forecast.
I'm not getting the forecast on TWC. Thunderstorms this afternoon- there isn't one strike of lightning within 300 miles. Tonight is heavy thunderstorms when it looks like the rain will be gone.
Torrential rain over @ Tampa International according to this webcam.

Quoting 37. Bucsboltsfan:

I'm not getting the forecast on TWC. Thunderstorms this afternoon- there isn't one strike of lightning within 300 miles. Tonight is heavy thunderstorms when it looks like the rain will be gone.



Yeah looks like just rain, not much instability for lightning...
Quoting 14. LongIslandBeaches:

"Weird Olaf Dies"

Sounds like an indie film.

:D


Lol, either that or similarly, a movie that would win best picture just because it's odd and has a weird title, because hollywood.
Quoting 38. StormTrackerScott:

Torrential rain over @ Tampa International according to this webcam.




Not near torrential. Just moderate rain. Look at the radar.
I found this data interesting.

NOAA link to Mean Sea Level Trend in Charleston, SC shows no increase in rate since 1920. The US Atlantic coast is an area that is sinking, due to geological reasons. Melting of the huge ice sheets to the north west, as the ice age ended, has allowed the land there to gradually rebound. In turn, areas to the south east are being gradually tilted downwards.

Link
Quoting 41. Bucsboltsfan:



Not near torrential. Just moderate rain. Look at the radar.


That webcam over @ your airport was showing very low vis just a bit ago. You could hardly see the tower in the background. Also PWAT's are now over 2" so the yellows on radar could be producing some heavy tropical rains as is beginning to happen across Tampa.
Quoting 35. 7000ppm:



Yes.

In some places tides are lower, in some places they are higher, because global warming changes the patterns of sea currents well over their pre-global-warming variability.

On average it's still almost a wash, but the risks are not symmetric: higher tides in some places do far more damage than the reduction in damage where tides are lower. Existing infrastructure that got built expecting the old patterns is at risk.

And mitigation of all this damage caused by rising CO2 levels is being blocked in the US by the Republican party, mostly just to give the Koch brothers and their ilk more profits on their coal investments - which is murderously perverse if you think about it...


I had no idea the republicans were so powerful and the democrats were so impotent. Silly me, I thought all of congress was responsible as a whole.
Quoting 42. canyonboy:

I found this data interesting.

NOAA link to Mean Sea Level Trend in Charleston, SC shows no increase in rate since 1920. The US Atlantic coast is an area that is sinking, due to geological reasons. Melting of the huge ice sheets to the north west, as the ice age ended, has allowed the land there to gradually rebound. In turn, areas to the south east are being gradually tilted downwards.

Link

No increase in rate, to be sure--but there's definitely been an increase:

1:24 PM EDT Tuesday 27 October 2015
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Moisture laden fall storm with rain and gusty winds on tap.

A large shield of rain associated with this storm is forecast to spread into Southwestern Ontario tonight and reach the Golden Horseshoe area by Wednesday morning. The rain will continue to move steadily into Central and Eastern Ontario through the day on Wednesday. The rain will likely become heavy at times as the low pressure area deepens. Latest indications continue to suggest 25 to 40 mm of rain in most areas. Locally higher amounts of 40 to 50 mm are possible, especially near lakes Erie and Ontario.

A clap or two of thunder is quite possible over a few locales, along with rainfall approaching Environment Canada's rainfall warning criterion of 50 mm within 24 hours.

Additionally, strong and gusty southerly winds are forecast to develop on Wednesday over Southwestern Ontario then on Wednesday night over remaining parts of Southern Ontario. Wind gusts to 70 km/h are likely in most areas. Even stronger winds are quite possible near the eastern ends of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, where wind gusts may approach the warning threshold of 90 km/h. Winds will become southwesterly on Thursday with strong gusts possible.

These winds may be strong enough to cause some tree damage and local power outages, especially in areas where trees remain in partial to full leaf.

The rain and strong winds will end by Friday as the fall storm moves away into Northern Quebec.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.


Quoting 43. StormTrackerScott:



That webcam over @ your airport was showing very low vis just a bit ago. You could hardly see the tower in the background. Also PWAT's are now over 2" so the yellows on radar could be producing some heavy tropical rains as is beginning to happen across Tampa.


My parents called me a minute ago and said it was heavy rain where they live in Pinellas, though I do think torrential rain would describe much heavier. The Tampa cam did show that it was heavy rain, but keep in mind of the distance from camera to the buildings, so I'm not sure if I'd call that torrential.

Also yes PW's are high but lapse rates are very weak so weaker vertical motions does impact convective intensity and rainfall potential. That activity looked more like steady heavy rain, as it was weaker shallow convection. Any cells that are slightly deeper could produce much heavier stuff. Though the convection area wide is weakening as the system continues to weaken and short wave energy shears out.
Quoting 44. fmbill:

I had no idea the republicans were so powerful and the democrats were so impotent. Silly me, I thought all of congress was responsible as a whole.
Yes, that is silly. The fact is, where climate science is concerned, only one political party has worked feverishly to prevent any change in the let's-keep-pumping-4,000,000-tonnes-of-CO2-into-th e-atmosphere-every-hour status quo.

Link

Link

Link

Link
Thank you for this mixed bag of eye openers.
It seems to me that this year there have been an awful lot of records and firsts in the weather and general Earth statistics.
I'm sat here wondering what records and firsts are going to be broken and noted before the end of next years season?
Quoting 47. Jedkins01:



My parents called me a minute ago and said it was heavy rain where they live in Pinellas, though I do think torrential rain would describe much heavier. The Tampa cam did show that it was heavy rain, but keep in mind of the distance from camera to the buildings, so I'm not sure if I'd call that torrential.

Also yes PW's are high but lapse rates are very weak so weaker vertical motions does impact convective intensity and rainfall potential. That activity looked more like steady heavy rain, as it was weaker shallow convection. Any cells that are slightly deeper could produce much heavier stuff. Though the convection area wide is weakening as the system continues to weaken and short wave energy shears out.


We got some steady and maybe considered heavy for a few minutes. Torrential - no way. Look at baynews 9 radar. Only yellows.
Quoting 48. Neapolitan:

Yes, that is silly. The fact is, where climate science is concerned, only one political party has worked feverishly to prevent any change in the let's-keep-pumping-4,000,000-tonnes-of-CO2-into-th e-atmosphere-every-hour status quo.

Link

Link

Link

Link


I understand what their position is on the subject. I just find it rather simplistic to put that much blame on one party. I've seen both the democrats and republicans fail to do what is right for our country and our planet. I guess I just hold all of congress responsible, not just one group.
Gee, LoL


Quoting 44. fmbill:



I had no idea the republicans were so powerful and the democrats were so impotent. Silly me, I thought all of congress was responsible as a whole.


Yes, that's what is happening: the Republicans, who control Congress and who are financed by the 'old energy' lobby (99% of all 'old energy' lobbying money goes to Republicans), are running on an explicit global warming denial platform, while the Democratic party is trying the best it can do given the power it has: presidential executive orders to combat global warming.

Democrats have plenty of faults, but denying science is not one of them.

Or, for those with a preference for news sources with a conservative bias, as the Washington Post has aptly put it:

"It’s time for conservatives to end the denial on climate change"

Quoting 37. Bucsboltsfan:

I'm not getting the forecast on TWC. Thunderstorms this afternoon- there isn't one strike of lightning within 300 miles. Tonight is heavy thunderstorms when it looks like the rain will be gone.


Where you live?
Quoting 45. Neapolitan:

No increase in rate, to be sure--but there's definitely been an increase:



That chart seems to indicate that there has been a 40 Cms, (16 inches,) increase in mean levels.
This would probably be more than the now accepted levels of sea level rise since about 1900.

On the US political thing of which I of course know nothing. we here are waiting until some disaster occurs which can only be attributed to sea level rise and nothing else. This could take the form of permanent flooding or salt water intrusions, or massive erosion of beaches or foundations of structures.
If and no doubt when this occurs its going to be like trying to say that fire has not destroyed a building when there are only glowing embers on the ground. At that point even the general ambient background public are going to be hard to fool.

I think the situation is Indonesia is probably a foretaste of what might happen in either North America or Europe soon, then the whole community will defiantly be up in arms. Strange that there is no ban on agricultural fires in Indonesia but then again corruption knows no limits, as a Spanish politician said last week, " corruption is part of human nature!"
Quoting 56. 62901IL:



Where you live?


Palm Harbor
Quoting 55. 7000ppm:



Yes, that's what is happening: the Republicans, who control Congress and who are financed by the 'old energy' lobby (99% of all 'old energy' lobbying money goes to Republicans), are running on an explicit global warming denial platform, while the Democratic party is trying the best it can do given the power it has: presidential executive orders to combat global warming.

Democrats have plenty of faults, but denying science is not one of them.

Or, for those with a preference for news sources with a conservative bias, as the Washington Post has aptly put it:

"It%u2019s time for conservatives to end the denial on climate change"




And here I thought AGW started before the Democrat controlled congress was in place from 2009-2011... I guess it started after their departure...
.90 inches of rain left.





And a trace has fallen, according to the Radar Indicated Precip.

Not buying it.
Like moths to flame..they come to defend those who are undefendable.

werd'
Quoting 38. no1der:

Eddie Bernice Johnson, Ranking Member, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, to Committee Chair Lamar Smith, October 23, 2015

"By issuing this subpoena, you have instigated a Constitutional conflict with an inquiry that seems more designed to harass climate scientists than to further any legitimate legislative purpose. This is a serious misuse of Congressional oversight powers.

"Unfortunately, this is not the first time the powers of the Chair have been used to harass and second guess our nation's preeminent research scientists. Two years ago, the EPA Administrator was subpoenaed to acquire research data from several seminal public health studies. At the time, you stated your intention in issuing the subpoena was to pass the data onto a researcher with extensive ties to the tobacco industry for reanalysis. I hesitate to ask to whom you'd like to pass the information you have demanded from NOAA. There's certainly not enough scientific expertise on your staff or on the Member rolls to reanalyze the scientific data you have been provided. I will only note that subpoenaing information from the Executive branch for the purposes of providing it to third parties is not a legitimate exercised of Congress's oversight powers, and certainly not a valid basis for a Constitutional conflict.

"The baseless conflict you have created by issuing the October 13 subpoena is representative of a disturbing pattern in your use of Congressional pwer since your Chairmanship began. In the past two years and ten months that you have presided as Chairman of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology you have issued more subpoenas (six) than were issued in the prior 54 year history of the Committee."
New forecast discussion.
Overall the forecast working out as expected. Slightly lower
amounts than forecast over SEMO and north of Route 13, but
elsewhere on track give or take. Bottom line, rain, and that`s
what we need. Just general rain/showers and even some drizzle, no
thunder. Expect another flare up in coverage later today and into
this evening primarily east of the MS river
. This will be
coincident with approaching mid level energy from the west, which
will cause pressure falls and low pressure over the MS Valley
region. Also, mid level lapse rates and elevated computed capes
will become more favorable for some lightning this evening and
overnight, so thunder mention continues. It`s not a high chance.
All in all, still looking at 1 to 3 inches, though some areas of
SEMO could fall short. Highest amounts west KY, extending up into
SW Indiana as advertised. A few higher than 3 inch amounts cannot
be ruled out as the low level jet strengthens into the area this
evening, with enhanced lift with the mid trop trof and possible
more efficient convective elements. Overall, PoPs will gradually
diminish from west to east tonight. Flooding not a concern. A spot
minor water problem or two here and there, about it.

Wednesday. Another band of moisture with a secondary lobe of mid
level energy and surface boundary moves through. Respectable
positive areas show up in soundings below 27-32k/ft EL`s. This is
enough to support a slight chance of thunderstorms mentioned area
wide, but especially afternoon from the KEVV tri-state
southwestward. Lowering freezing levels means some small hail
cannot be ruled out as well with low topped convection. Will
linger the chance into the evening as showers like the previous
shift had, then dry things out for late Wednesday night through
Thursday night with high pressure building in. Temps will continue
to be a blend of persistence and MOS.

I wonder if the next 'flare up' will get us the .90 inches of rain forecast.
Methane News:

I didn't realize that it was like this:

Link

Something to see ~

Thinking about it, what is probably happening is that a large underground table of methane is finding it's way to the surface through this aperture. It can't all be methane from this one little pond.

Interestingly, even though that happened months ago (ok, we don't kn ow when, or if, it has stopped), the golf course still has only nine holes open:

Link

Don't have a lot of time to research this, but a quick youtube search seems to indicate that there is quite a lot going on:

Link
Quoting 55. 7000ppm:



Yes, that's what is happening: the Republicans, who control Congress and who are financed by the 'old energy' lobby (99% of all 'old energy' lobbying money goes to Republicans), are running on an explicit global warming denial platform, while the Democratic party is trying the best it can do given the power it has: presidential executive orders to combat global warming.

Democrats have plenty of faults, but denying science is not one of them.

Or, for those with a preference for news sources with a conservative bias, as the Washington Post has aptly put it:

"It’s time for conservatives to end the denial on climate change"




It's just so frustrating. The democrats had control of both the house & the senate from 2007 - 2011 and still did very little to push through legislation. With the republicans gaining control of both the house & senate in 2015, wouldn't it be ironic if it was during this time that real change began. LOL! Again, not supporting either party...they both have done their share to block real legislation, regardless of ideology.
Quoting 59. Sangria:



And here I thought AGW started before the Democrat controlled congress was in place from 2009-2011... I guess it started after there departure...


Here is the list of all Climate Change related legislation put forward in the 111th Congress. Most of these died in committee as climate change legislation often needs approval from multiple committees as it crosses many established committee boundaries. Often if bills made it out of committee to the floor, they were scheduled for action, but never voted on due to lack of any bipartisan support and the use of the filibuster which exploded during the 111th congress.
Quoting 65. fmbill:



It's just so frustrating. The democrats had control of both the house & the senate from 2007 - 2011 and still did very little to push through legislation. With the republicans gaining control of both the house & senate in 2015, wouldn't it be ironic if it was during this time that real change began. LOL! Again, not supporting either party...they both have done their share to block real legislation, regardless of ideology.


Passing legislation is way more complicated than merely having control. These days it often requires a super majority. The 111th Congress saw record use of the filibuster limiting bills actually making it to vote.

"By the time the 111th Congress adjourned in December 2010, the number of filibusters had swelled to 137 for the entire two-year term of the 111th Congress. During the 111th Congress, over 400 bills that had been passed by the House of Representatives -- many with broad bipartisan support -- died in the Senate without ever having been debated or voted on because of the inability to obtain the 60 votes required by Rule XXII." Link
Quoting 67. Naga5000:



Passing legislation is way more complicated than merely having control. These days it often requires a super majority. The 111th Congress saw record use of the filibuster limiting bills actually making it to vote.

"By the time the 111th Congress adjourned in December 2010, the number of filibusters had swelled to 137 for the entire two-year term of the 111th Congress. During the 111th Congress, over 400 bills that had been passed by the House of Representatives -- many with broad bipartisan support -- died in the Senate without ever having been debated or voted on because of the inability to obtain the 60 votes required by Rule XXII." Link


Meanwhile, both parties play games and nothing gets done. Again...frustrating.
Quoting 39. Jedkins01:




Yeah looks like just rain, not much instability for lightning...
There has not been one lightning strike in Alabama in the last 36 hours. There have been a couple of strikes in the Gulf about 150 miles offshore from Ft. Myers, but that's it. No lightning anywhere else in the entire SE at this hour. The storm, such as it was, has completely collapsed here. The few echoes coming from the Gulf promptly dissipate after crossing into Alabama from the Panhandle. Southeast Alabama has had almost no rain from this storm, and the prospects of any rain are rapidly being reduced to zero. This has been a badly blown forecast for this area, but that happens. What's really irritating is the current forecast is still calling for an 80% chance of rain this afternoon. Why cling to a blown forecast as if maybe no one will notice? Even a passing glance at the radar will show that 80% chance is not going to happen. The forecast for Dothan, 50 miles south of me, comes out of Tallahassee, and they have at least reduced their chances to a somewhat more realistic 50%.

Quoting 55. 7000ppm:



Yes, that's what is happening: the Republicans, who control Congress and who are financed by the 'old energy' lobby (99% of all 'old energy' lobbying money goes to Republicans), are running on an explicit global warming denial platform, while the Democratic party is trying the best it can do given the power it has: presidential executive orders to combat global warming.

Democrats have plenty of faults, but denying science is not one of them.

Or, for those with a preference for news sources with a conservative bias, as the Washington Post has aptly put it:

"It’s time for conservatives to end the denial on climate change"



Fact check: The Democrats had the House, Senate and Presidency for the first two years of Obama's presidency including one year of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.
Quoting 66. Naga5000:



Here is the list of all Climate Change related legislation put forward in the 111th Congress. Most of these died in committee as climate change legislation often needs approval from multiple committees as it crosses many established committee boundaries. Often if bills made it out of committee to the floor, they were scheduled for action, but never voted on due to lack of any bipartisan support and the use of the filibuster which exploded during the 111th congress.


That is an interesting list of climate change "related" legislation that was proposed.
Quoting 71. canyonboy:


Fact check: The Democrats had the House, Senate and Presidency for the first two years of Obama's presidency including one year of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.

A reminder: political comments are allowed only so long as they're in reference to science, science policy, or the blog topic.
Quoting 69. sar2401:

There has not been one lightning strike in Alabama in the last 36 hours. There have been a couple of strikes in the Gulf about 150 miles offshore from Ft. Myers, but that's it. No lightning anywhere else in the entire SE at this hour. The storm, such as it was, has completely collapsed here. The few echoes coming from the Gulf promptly dissipate after crossing into Alabama from the Panhandle. Southeast Alabama has had almost no rain from this storm, and the prospects of any rain are rapidly being reduced to zero. This has been a badly blown forecast for this area, but that happens. What's really irritating is the current forecast is still calling for an 80% chance of rain this afternoon. Why cling to a blown forecast as if maybe no one will notice? Even a passing glance at the radar will show that 80% chance is not going to happen. The forecast for Dothan, 50 miles south of me, comes out of Tallahassee, and they have at least reduced that chances to a somewhat more realistic 50%.






It seems like the chance for rain in the Tampa Bay area is dwindling down as well. I will have to check my gauge when I get home from work, but if there's more than a quarter inch in there, I'd be surprised. Mostly light rain off and on all day with a few increments of moderate rain.
Quoting 71. canyonboy:


Fact check: The Democrats had the House, Senate and Presidency for the first two years of Obama's presidency including one year of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.



And as somewhat rational politicians do, they passed legislation. Rather than overhaul the entire economy, that had been previously driven to global meltdown, to carbon-neutral economy, they took the first step.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_Clean_Ener gy_and_Security_Act

The President also issued an executive order moving the single largest consumer of carbon energy in the world (the DOD) to cut emissions over time and quickly install 3GW of solar, further amplifying the 2005 order cut emissions of carbon.

No perfect, no. Not enough, no. But cautious, conservative and responsible.

What is this little low doing in the Bay of Campeche, and where would it come from?

Is 'a perigean spring tide' the same thing as a 'King Tide'? Maybe just an informal name? This is a regular occurrence I understand.

Also, up to now, "Sea level rose by 6 cm during the 19th century and 19 cm in the 20th century", or about 2 and 7 inches respectively. link Just to be sure of what we are talking about here.

Wearing out my scroll wheel finger getting past all the comments generated from one tiny reference to "minor 'nuisance flooding' at the times of perigean spring tides will increase even more as sea level rises relative to the land." The bold part is very important because it recognizes land subsidence.

The rest of Dr. Masters post was interesting too. Thanks for the Global Perspective. I have relatives in Indonesia.
Quoting 78. BaltimoreBrian:





How do I prevent the videos from auto playing? Since someone quoted your video, every time I refresh the page both videos are playing together.

I liked the time when you had to click the video for it to play...


The new study, "Report predicts temperatures too hot for humans in Persian Gulf" is getting much attention . Thanks to RS, I when and got 3 examples of this effect killing people this year in May , June, and July .

Extreme temperatures kill more than 2,000 people in India's second deadliest heat wave
Sunday 31 May 2015
On Saturday and Sunday temperatures in the states ranged between 45C and 47C, about 3C to 7C higher than normal, according to the meteorological centre in the Telangana state capital of Hyderabad.



Wet Bulb at 33 C — Human Hothouse Kills Nearly 800 in Pakistan
June 24, 2015
Human-forced warming of the global climate system is pushing sea surface temperatures in some areas to a maximum of 33 C. Extreme ocean warming that is increasing the amount of latent heat the atmosphere can deliver to human bodies during heatwaves. And near a 33 C sea surface hot zone, the past few days have witnessed extreme heat and related tragic mass casualties in Sindh, Pakistan.



Killing Heat — It Felt Like 165 Degrees in Iran Today
July 31, 2015
In Iran it was 115 degrees Fahrenheit today (46 C). Add in humidity and the heat index was a stunning 165 F (74 C). But what they really should be concerned about is the wet bulb reading…


Quoting 81. SouthCentralTx:




How do I prevent the videos from auto playing? Since someone quoted your video, every time I refresh the page both videos are playing together.

I liked the time when you had to click the video for it to play...



Go here for ways to stop autoplay with almost any browser.
Quoting 80. DFWdad:

Is 'a perigean spring tide' the same thing as a 'King Tide'? Maybe just an informal name? This is a regular occurrence I understand.

Also, up to now, "Sea level rose by 6 cm during the 19th century and 19 cm in the 20th century", or about 2 and 7 inches respectively. link Just to be sure of what we are talking about here.

Wearing out my scroll wheel finger getting past all the comments generated from one tiny reference to "minor 'nuisance flooding' at the times of perigean spring tides will increase even more as sea level rises relative to the land." The bold part is very important because it recognizes land subsidence.

The rest of Dr. Masters post was interesting too. Thanks for the Global Perspective. I have relatives in Indonesia.



Tamino has a great blog post on what this means in terms of specific events of flooding. For example, here is a plot of the number of flood days for Atlantic City, NJ.



This includes storms, nuisance flooding, and tides.



Quoting 80. DFWdad:

Is 'a perigean spring tide' the same thing as a 'King Tide'? Maybe just an informal name? This is a regular occurrence I understand.

Also, up to now, "Sea level rose by 6 cm during the 19th century and 19 cm in the 20th century", or about 2 and 7 inches respectively. link Just to be sure of what we are talking about here.

Wearing out my scroll wheel finger getting past all the comments generated from one tiny reference to "minor 'nuisance flooding' at the times of perigean spring tides will increase even more as sea level rises relative to the land." The bold part is very important because it recognizes land subsidence.

The rest of Dr. Masters post was interesting too. Thanks for the Global Perspective. I have relatives in Indonesia.

A perigean tide is the scientific name for what's commonly called a king tide. It happens when the moon is either full or new and is the closest to the earth at the time of spring tide, the highest tide in the lunar cycle. It happens four times a year on average.
Good evening and thanks for the good new entry, well-balanced with floods and droughts ... Awful situation in southeast Asia with those fires:

Indonesia considers national emergency over forest fires - VP
Source: Reuters - Tue, 27 Oct 2015 10:51 GMT
The last time the country declared a national emergency was when the Indian Ocean tsunami killed more than 100,000 people in 2004.


Source article above. An orangutan climbs a tree as haze shrouds Borneo Orangutan Survival Foundation in Nyaru Menteng, Indonesia's Central Kalimantan province, October 5, 2015 in this photo taken by Antara Foto. REUTERS/Rosa Panggabean/Antara Foto

Jokowi cuts U.S. trip short as Tuesday rain brings hope of haze respite
27th October 2015 / Mongabay Haze Beat
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo cut short his official visit to the U.S. on Tuesday and returned to Indonesia to oversee government efforts to manage a humanitarian disaster caused by wildfires and peatland hotspots.
Rain fell in some haze-hit regions on Tuesday, including in Banjarmasin, Berau, Jambi, Palangkaraya, Pontianak and Samarinda, while Indonesia's disaster management agency reported progress of sorts in preparing evacuations.
The navy has allocated 11 vessels, including a floating hospital, to be on standby to evacuate people from areas experiencing dangerous air quality. ...



Where there's smoke, there's toxic gas: Inside Indonesia's fire and haze: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR). In October 2015, scientists from CIFOR and Indonesian and international universities traveled to the peat and forest fires in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, where they used specialized equipment to measure the physical impact of the fires and the smoke. What they found shocked them - but the data they gather can be used for understanding the extent of the problem, and for supporting efforts to find solutions.
Quoting 77. fmbill:

What is this little low doing in the Bay of Campeche, and where would it come from?


Looks like a low forming on a trough, much like what we had with the low moving inland today from the coast. It's gone by day 7.

Quoting 55. 7000ppm:



Yes, that's what is happening: the Republicans, who control Congress and who are financed by the 'old energy' lobby (99% of all 'old energy' lobbying money goes to Republicans), are running on an explicit global warming denial platform, while the Democratic party is trying the best it can do given the power it has: presidential executive orders to combat global warming.

Democrats have plenty of faults, but denying science is not one of them.

Or, for those with a preference for news sources with a conservative bias, as the Washington Post has aptly put it:

"It’s time for conservatives to end the denial on climate change"




I'm not a fan of either party, this is just silly. Dems had control of the house, the senate, and presidency and did squat.
Politics and "weather".

Egypt: Alexandria flooding may be new norm because of climate change

An unseasonable rainstorm in the Egyptian city of Alexandria dumped nearly 10 inches of rain in two days last week, killing six people and turning the Mediterranean port city’s streets into rushing rivers. As the rains continued over the weekend, they also claimed a political victim: the region's newly elected governor, Hany el-Missiry.

Link
Quoting 88. VAbeachhurricanes:



I'm not a fan of either party, this is just silly. Dems had control of the house, the senate, and presidency and did squat.


I think we, the people, need to make the change. If we could just present the facts in a way that folks can identify with, it would change our public opinion regardless of party affiliation. As wonderful as science is, scientists aren't really known for convincing folks. Tobacco is a good example. Regardless of the science, people continued to smoke, until a study showed that people don't necessarily connect or respond to the science of an issue as much as they would when presented with something they could identify with. See truth campaign
Some good news for folks on the west coast for the next couple weeks, as the MJO heads into sector 3 ..Storms systems will bring needed rain to the area. After that, changes as the season moves toward winter and coupling begins. If for some reason ( storm forms in the Eastern Pacific ) this could help keep the MJO in sector 2..Which means less rain..

Quoting 86. barbamz:

Good evening and thanks for the good new entry, well-balanced with floods and droughts ... Awful situation in southeast Asia with those fires:

Indonesia considers national emergency over forest fires - VP

Hi Barb. It would helped a lot more if the government had declared a national emergency and deployed troops before the large corporate farmers started illegally burning off their land. Now "Joko" and the Boys are acting like Indonesia is somehow the victim in all this, with the hope of snaring yet more foreign aid they can steal. This burning happens every year, and government officials stick money their pockets to turn a blind eye to it. The smoke just happens to be worse this year due to drought, and the Boys got caught. I don't know why President Obama welcomed him as some kind of friend, but I know what I would have talked to him about, and it wouldn't have been more foreign aid.
Looks like all the lakes will get some of this..

Some severe weather possible too..Which is normal for November..

Quoting 42. canyonboy:

I found this data interesting.

NOAA link to Mean Sea Level Trend in Charleston, SC shows no increase in rate since 1920. The US Atlantic coast is an area that is sinking, due to geological reasons. Melting of the huge ice sheets to the north west, as the ice age ended, has allowed the land there to gradually rebound. In turn, areas to the south east are being gradually tilted downwards.

Link

This makes sense for that area, and most of the East Coast. We live on the water and I have not seen a rise in the waters yet where we live.
Low-lying Alexandria is also vulnerable to increased salination, or saltwater intrusions on agricultural lands and freshwater resources, according to the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

My link at # 91 .

These mass migrations we are seeing are just the tip of the spear . The Nile Delta is the breadbasket of the country, and Egypt is the largest wheat importer in the world. It's no accident that in 2010 when Russia and Ukraine lost their crop. The fires in North Africa, and the Mid East had gasoline dumped on them. The next year came the Syrian civil war fueled by the worst drought in modern time there, 4 years long.

Believe me , Politics and "weather". are one and the same these days.
Quoting 96. sar2401:

Hi Barb. It would helped a lot more if the government had declared a national emergency and deployed troops before the large corporate farmers started illegally burning off their land. Now "Joko" and the Boys are acting like Indonesia is somehow the victim in all this, with the hope of snaring yet more foreign aid they can steal. This burning happens every year, and government officials stick money their pockets to turn a blind eye to it. The smoke just happens to be worse this year due to drought, and the Boys got caught. I don't know why President Obama welcomed him as some kind of friend, but I know what I would have talked to him about, and it wouldn't have been more foreign aid.

Hi, Sar. Hopefully this catastrophe will force some changes. From another article on Mongabay, published yesterday (they got a good coverage of the crisis in Indonesia):
"President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo is preparing significant steps toward addressing the underlying causes of Indonesia's devastating wildfires, including an enhanced moratorium on licenses to exploit peatlands, but has yet to make the measures legally binding."


22.10.2015: Fires blazing in Kalimantan and Sumatra in Indonesia have created epic palls of smoke visible to the Himawari-8 satellite between October 14 and 22 of 2015. The fires, mostly to clear land for agricultural purposes, have been releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each day, on average, than the entire economy of the United States.
hey guys I'm back in full swing (sorta) I just got a new computer

so no more hassle like with what I have using my IPad
Quoting 99. NativeSun:

This makes sense for that area, and most of the East Coast. We live on the water and I have not seen a rise in the waters yet where we live.


Uhh...that link shows a clear increase in sea level, just not an acceleration of rate of rise for that location.
Sigh, political debates are just finger pointers.


Anywho updated WPC rainfall.



68% of Washington state is in extreme drought so that near foot of rain on the map just might have Seattle saying bye to drought?
Quoting 104. SouthCentralTx:

Sigh, political debates are just finger pointers.


Anywho updated WPC rainfall.



68% of Washington state is in extreme drought so that near foot of rain on the map just might have Seattle saying bye to drought?


This happened last year too. The WPC consistently showed 11, 12, 13 inches of rain in every 7 day QPF for the Pacific Northwest's rainy season. I guess we'll see if that happens again this year.
Quoting 86. barbamz:

Good evening and thanks for the good new entry, well-balanced with floods and droughts ... Awful situation in southeast Asia with those fires:

Indonesia considers national emergency over forest fires - VP
Source: Reuters - Tue, 27 Oct 2015 10:51 GMT
The last time the country declared a national emergency was when the Indian Ocean tsunami killed more than 100,000 people in 2004.


Source article above. An orangutan climbs a tree as haze shrouds Borneo Orangutan Survival Foundation in Nyaru Menteng, Indonesia's Central Kalimantan province, October 5, 2015 in this photo taken by Antara Foto. REUTERS/Rosa Panggabean/Antara Foto

Jokowi cuts U.S. trip short as Tuesday rain brings hope of haze respite
27th October 2015 / Mongabay Haze Beat
President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo cut short his official visit to the U.S. on Tuesday and returned to Indonesia to oversee government efforts to manage a humanitarian disaster caused by wildfires and peatland hotspots.
Rain fell in some haze-hit regions on Tuesday, including in Banjarmasin, Berau, Jambi, Palangkaraya, Pontianak and Samarinda, while Indonesia's disaster management agency reported progress of sorts in preparing evacuations.
The navy has allocated 11 vessels, including a floating hospital, to be on standby to evacuate people from areas experiencing dangerous air quality. ...



Where there's smoke, there's toxic gas: Inside Indonesia's fire and haze: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR). In October 2015, scientists from CIFOR and Indonesian and international universities traveled to the peat and forest fires in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, where they used specialized equipment to measure the physical impact of the fires and the smoke. What they found shocked them - but the data they gather can be used for understanding the extent of the problem, and for supporting efforts to find solutions.


Please join us , Robert Scribbler has been on this story for months. We need your investigative eye. And he throws all the fleas off the the site.

“A Crime Against Humanity” — Hothouse Wildfire Smoke Sickens 500,000 As Indonesian Officials Plan For Mass Evacuations

Link
Rainfall warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Heavy rainfall will begin later tonight across the regions and continue until Wednesday evening. Rainfall amounts of 45 to 55 millimetres are expected. Hazards may include power outages due to heavy downpours causing tree limbs to fall on power lines. Water pooling on roads may result from heavy downpours or debris blocking drains.

Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Please monitor local media or Weatheradio. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
•City of Toronto

Moisture laden fall storm with rain and gusty winds tonight through Thursday.

A low pressure area over Louisiana containing moisture from the remnants of hurricane Patricia and the Gulf of Mexico is starting to move northward towards the Great Lakes. This low is expected to intensify into a strong fall storm as it reaches the Great Lakes, bringing a significant rainfall along with strong and gusty winds over the next couple of days.

A large shield of rain associated with this storm is forecast to spread into Southwestern Ontario tonight and reach the Golden Horseshoe area by Wednesday morning. The rain will continue to move steadily into Central and Eastern Ontario through the day on Wednesday. The rain will likely become heavy at times as the low pressure area deepens. Latest indications continue to suggest 25 to 40 mm of rain in most areas. Locally higher amounts of 45 to 55 mm are likely, especially in the Windsor to Toronto and into Kingston corridor and rainfall warnings have been issued. The rainfall warnings will likely be extended into Eastern Ontario as the event draws nearer.

A clap or two of thunder is quite possible over a few locales, along with rainfall approaching Environment Canada's rainfall warning criterion of 50 mm within 24 hours.

Additionally, strong and gusty southerly winds are forecast to develop early Wednesday over Southwestern Ontario then on Wednesday afternoon over remaining parts of Southern Ontario. Wind gusts to 70 km/h are likely in most areas. Even stronger winds are quite possible near the eastern ends of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, where wind gusts may approach the warning threshold of 90 km/h. Winds will become southwesterly on Thursday as a cold front arrives and strong gusts to 90 km/h are again possible.

These winds may be strong enough to cause some tree damage and local power outages, especially in areas where trees remain in partial to full leaf. Other impacts could be pooling on roads due to debris blocking drains.

The rain and strong winds will end by Friday as the fall storm moves away into Northern Quebec.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weather.gc.ca.
Follow:ATOM feedATOM
The peat on Indonesia is thousands of years old , and we are unlocking very old dragons. The permafrost of Siberia is even much older. And that is in play.

Nature is a not a line . it is an explosion.
Quoting 104. SouthCentralTx:

Sigh, political debates are just finger pointers.


Anywho updated WPC rainfall.



68% of Washington state is in extreme drought so that near foot of rain on the map just might have Seattle saying bye to drought?


That amount is probably on higher slopes of the Cascades. Seattle is lucky if they get even half of the precip that falls there.
The burning in Indonesia this year, is the same as the entire year of greenhouse gases in the US.
Quoting 103. Naga5000:



Uhh...that link shows a clear increase in sea level, just not an acceleration of rate of rise for that location.

Ah yes, the unfortunate misunderstanding between rate and acceleration.
Quoting 57. PlazaRed:


That chart seems to indicate that there has been a 40 Cms, (16 inches,) increase in mean levels.
This would probably be more than the now accepted levels of sea level rise since about 1900.

Sea level rise and relative sea level rise are not uniform globally.
On this sea level rise thing, what's needed to really bring peoples minds to bear on the subject is for a large well known city to start to become uninhabitable due to the rise of sea levels.
Everybody will probably have their own ideas on this for some low lying city's at about sea level to start with but I would personally go for Venice as its loss will be such a massive shock to the western mind, having stood for so long at what was sea level.
Quoting 111. TimSoCal:



That amount is probably on higher slopes of the Cascades. Seattle is lucky if they get even half of the precip that falls there.

Mountains squeeze out all that moisture. Air warms, dries, and compresses a bit goin down..At least thats what I read..:)
The Tundra is on Fire
By Colorado Bob
Sat Sep 29, 2007 6:39 AM

I have been watching fires for several years , Poking the Dargon has got us into really deep trouble.

Link
Quoting 114. PlazaRed:

On this sea level rise thing, what's needed to really bring peoples minds to bear on the subject is for a large well known city to start to become uninhabitable due to the rise of sea levels.
Everybody will probably have their own ideas on this for some low lying city's at about sea level to start with but I would personally go for Venice as its loss will be such a massive shock to the western mind, having stood for so long at what was sea level.
New Orleans, The Netherlands, Bangladesh, Equatorial Africa, Boston, Florida, China, Myanmar...Many more indeed.
Quoting 101. barbamz:


Hi, Sar. Hopefully this catastrophe will force some changes. From another article on Mongabay, published yesterday (they got a good coverage of the crisis in Indonesia):
"President Joko "Jokowi" Widodo is preparing significant steps toward addressing the underlying causes of Indonesia's devastating wildfires, including an enhanced moratorium on licenses to exploit peatlands, but has yet to make the measures legally binding."


22.10.2015: Fires blazing in Kalimantan and Sumatra in Indonesia have created epic palls of smoke visible to the Himawari-8 satellite between October 14 and 22 of 2015. The fires, mostly to clear land for agricultural purposes, have been releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere each day, on average, than the entire economy of the United States.
Of course Joko will talk about doing something. He has to if he's going to pacify his foreign sponsors and suck some more money out of them. The Indonesian government is corrupt from top to bottom, openly hostile to non-Muslim states, and is a training ground for international terrorists. I have two friends who live there. One is a representative of a US corporation and the other is a professor in one of the main universities. The stories they tell of business dealings and human rights violations by the government would curl your toes. I feel badly for the innocent people in Indonesia and all of Southeast Asia who are the real victims of these uncontrolled fires, but the only way there will be changes in the government is if western countries stop propping it up with foreign and military aid.
Quoting 68. fmbill:



Meanwhile, both parties play games and nothing gets done. Again...frustrating.
E Pluribus wut.?
Quoting 96. sar2401:

Hi Barb. It would helped a lot more if the government had declared a national emergency and deployed troops before the large corporate farmers started illegally burning off their land. Now "Joko" and the Boys are acting like Indonesia is somehow the victim in all this, with the hope of snaring yet more foreign aid they can steal. This burning happens every year, and government officials stick money their pockets to turn a blind eye to it. The smoke just happens to be worse this year due to drought, and the Boys got caught. I don't know why President Obama welcomed him as some kind of friend, but I know what I would have talked to him about, and it wouldn't have been more foreign aid.


I respect you & enjoy reading your meteorology-related posts, but this is just really ignorant.
Excerpt from Wiki...

The IPCC report of 2007 estimated that accelerated melting of the Himalayan ice caps and the resulting rise in sea levels would likely increase the severity of flooding in the short term during the rainy season and greatly magnify the impact of tidal storm surges during the cyclone season. A sea-level rise of just 400 mm in the Bay of Bengal would put 11 percent of the Bangladesh's coastal land underwater, creating 7–10 million climate refugees.
122. Wrass
Regarding post # 93... Excellent well done !! Well said.. Good Job..!!
Quoting 117. hydrus:

New Orleans, The Netherlands, Bangladesh, Equatorial Africa, Boston, Florida, China, Myanmar...Many more indeed.

Now the picture starts to materialise?
Quoting 114. PlazaRed:

On this sea level rise thing, what's needed to really bring peoples minds to bear on the subject is for a large well known city to start to become uninhabitable due to the rise of sea levels.
Everybody will probably have their own ideas on this for some low lying city's at about sea level to start with but I would personally go for Venice as its loss will be such a massive shock to the western mind, having stood for so long at what was sea level.
I would bet Miami is first. Saltwater is already backing up from the storm sewers at monthly high tides. There is no higher ground to move to. There is no economically viable mitigation strategy. The speed of the Gulf Stream keeps sea level there 1-1.5m lower than it would be otherwise but the Gulf Stream is slowing...
Quoting 123. PlazaRed:


Now the picture starts to materialise?
Howdy Red...I read on this years ago. Even relatively small changes with sea level has a substantial impact on many regions of the world...and pretty much always has...
Quoting 120. fabian171017:



I respect you & enjoy reading your meteorology-related posts, but this is just really ignorant.


Those who Bloviate about the past from a recliner, are doomed to stew in it.

This is going to be a large and powerful system....

94A:



Organising well. It has an upper-level anti cyclone above it helping to ventilate the system and protecting it from high shear to the north. Shear should be low-moderate over the next few days as it moves westwards with SSTs of 30-31C. Certainly has a really good structure at the moment. Once it develops a tight core, we could see it rapidly intensify (Earlier ASCAT passes showed its low level structure was somewhat broad, although those passes were a while ago).
Quoting 125. hydrus:

Howdy Red...I read on this years ago. Even relatively small changes with sea level has a substantial impact on many regions of the world...and pretty much always has...

All depends where you are and where the problem is with the sea level.
Here in Spain there is so much land that moving into the interior would be no problems as there are vast parts of Spain where nobody much lives.
A different matter altogether if you are on a low level island, or somewhere like Bangladesh. Then we can consider the Netherlands with a large part of it being at or below sea level.

One of the problems with sea level rise which indirectly affects things is that a large amount of beaches and wetlands will become submerged, this will cause economic problems for certain tourist industries on which a lot of economies depend for a large part of their foreign income. Added to this a massive die off of wetland species can also be expected.

This sea level rise is something which can not now be prevented, its going to happen, the only factor which humans can consider is how much they can possibly retard the rising!
Quoting 129. PlazaRed:


All depends where you are and where the problem is with the sea level.
Here in Spain there is so much land that moving into the interior would be no problems as there are vast parts of Spain where nobody much lives.
A different matter altogether if you are on a low level island, or somewhere like Bangladesh. Then we can consider the Netherlands with a large part of it being at or below sea level.

One of the problems with sea level rise which indirectly affects things is that a large amount of beaches and wetlands will become submerged, this will cause economic problems for certain tourist industries on which a lot of economies depend for a large part of their foreign income. Added to this a massive die off of wetland species can also be expected.

This sea level rise is something which can not now be prevented, its going to happen, the only factor which humans can consider is how much they can possibly retard the rising!
I understand. The Earths oceans have risen and fallen mostly due to the planets orbital geometry to the tune of about 85 meters in the past 135 thousand years. So regardless, the inhabitants here would have to overcome these types of changes with or without human influence on the climate.

131. beell

Figure 3. Motorists ride on a road as thick haze from forest fires shrouds the city in Palangkaraya, Central Borneo, Indonesia, on Tuesday, October 27, 2015. The haze has blanketed parts of western Indonesia for about two months and affected neighboring countries like Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. Image credit: Associated Press.

A photo and caption from today's post by Doc M & Mr H.

So...Mom and Dad get a helmet, but...
Yeah, its kinda like in Murica' when the Mom is strapped in,on FB, and driving the Child in the front seat, without a car seat to school.

Humans have much more in common,than well,...u know.

Quoting 130. hydrus:

I understand. The Earths oceans have risen and fallen mostly due to the planets orbital geometry to the tune of about 85 meters in the past 135 thousand years. So regardless, the inhabitants here would have to overcome these types of changes with or without human influence on the climate.



The few ancestral relatives of modern humans would probably have had no problems adjusting to an 80 meter sea level rise, as they would have been highly mobile. Not something that can be said for well over 90% of their decedents.
Like the biblical statement of "pick up your be and walk."
Nowadays its not as simple to pick up your beach front property and walk!

Probably time to ban all construction less then 10 meters, ( 33 feet ) above sea level; not that I'm one for banning anything.
Quoting 131. beell:


Figure 3. Motorists ride on a road as thick haze from forest fires shrouds the city in Palangkaraya, Central Borneo, Indonesia, on Tuesday, October 27, 2015. The haze has blanketed parts of western Indonesia for about two months and affected neighboring countries like Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. Image credit: Associated Press.

A photo and caption from today's post by Doc M & Mr H.

So...Mom and Dad get a helmet, but...


Not even goggles or a mask.
136. beell
:)
Quoting 123. PlazaRed:


Now the picture starts to materialise?

How about most of Washington DC? It was built on a swamp. (Extracurricular commentary unneccessary.)
Quoting 96. sar2401:

Hi Barb. It would helped a lot more if the government had declared a national emergency and deployed troops before the large corporate farmers started illegally burning off their land. Now "Joko" and the Boys are acting like Indonesia is somehow the victim in all this, with the hope of snaring yet more foreign aid they can steal. This burning happens every year, and government officials stick money their pockets to turn a blind eye to it. The smoke just happens to be worse this year due to drought, and the Boys got caught. I don't know why President Obama welcomed him as some kind of friend, but I know what I would have talked to him about, and it wouldn't have been more foreign aid.

Maybe that aid could be made contingent on acres of forest NOT burned. For every acre/sq km burned, less aid.
Quoting 137. BayFog:


How about most of Washington DC? It was built on a swamp. (Extracurricular commentary unneccessary.)
It'll mostly be the downtown areas.Downtown was swampy while the N.W area that I live in was a woodland area.
Quoting 127. hydrus:

This is going to be a large and powerful system....




No doubt part Patricia not done yet. From 200mph sustained major, to a hybrid low/cold front storm for Texas and the Gulf Coast, and now this gigantic system. Lot has happened in just a few short days.
Quoting 133. PlazaRed:


The few ancestral relatives of modern humans would probably have had no problems adjusting to an 80 meter sea level rise, as they would have been highly mobile. Not something that can be said for well over 90% of their decedents.
Like the biblical statement of "pick up your be and walk."
Nowadays its not as simple to pick up your beach front property and walk!

Probably time to ban all construction less then 10 meters, ( 33 feet ) above sea level; not that I'm one for banning anything.
I guess its walk away or drown. Besides, we live here at the mercy of what ever occurs.. Some people are born in regions known for devastating disasters, and are to poor to leave. I know people who left the place they were born and raised to avoid getting killed by catastrophes that plague the area. My parents left south Florida due to the 2004 Hurricane Season. Dont say I blame them either, considering how bad the damage and cost was. Tens of thousands were said to have left South Florida after Andrew, and some said they would never return.
Getting rain here in Wisconsin from all this.
Quoting 142. DeepSeaRising:



No doubt part Patricia not done yet. From 200mph sustained major, to a hybrid low/cold front storm for Texas and the Gulf Coast, and now this gigantic system. Lot has happened in just a few short days.


Not done with wind either.
Looks like a good setup by Sunday for storminess across Oregon and the Northeast, plus a nice subtropical jet over the Midwest positioned to pull in more buckets of Gulf moisture.
Just think of the energy that got transferred across basins with Patricia. Just amazing what we've seen with this system. Historic for it's cross basin energy, reformation, and continued rain fall and transition. I know it will be said that the low was separate from Patricia, but I believe there's no doubt that Patricia's energy was the fuelling factor for what we saw two nights ago across the Gulf and what now is an expansive system with tons of energy.
Quoting 148. Grothar:


Very rarely am I in the midst of interesting weather. This will have to do. (Keep's town)
Good evening everyone. Today's blog was an interesting and informative read. I admit I never thought about el Nino impacting the height and placement of tides ....

Seems we will be seeing more and more of these interesting phenomena as we progress into this "new world" ....

It was cool and overcast in Nassau today, with temperatures quite reasonable for a change. I'm enjoying the cooler air and hoping it lasts, along with some dryness, for a little while longer.
Quoting 51. fmbill:



I understand what their position is on the subject. I just find it rather simplistic to put that much blame on one party. I've seen both the democrats and republicans fail to do what is right for our country and our planet. I guess I just hold all of congress responsible, not just one group.


You are correct in that both parties are to blame, but only one party has demonstrated (and practically worships) ignorance as a gold standard of "real Americans". At this point I'm just waiting for someone idiot like Inhofe to stand up before Congress and say science is terrorist propaganda and electricity is the work of the devil.
Getting blustery here on the plateau..Wind 16 gusting to 28 mph with moderate rain...Thunderstorms are expected.
Sorry about the autoplay video--the embed code I used to use disappeared and I didn't know the video would autoplay.
Quoting 104. SouthCentralTx:

Sigh, political debates are just finger pointers.


Anywho updated WPC rainfall.



68% of Washington state is in extreme drought so that near foot of rain on the map just might have Seattle saying bye to drought?

To really end the drought on the west coast we need a good snow pack in the Cascades and Sierras this winter. That's where most of the water for the summer months comes from.
riverat we talked about that earlier on Mr Burt's blog--re "the wrong kind of snow"
I see we had another multi-hour failure here. What is that, four times this month? I guess performance doesn't count in terms of keeping your job at WU.
Quoting 120. fabian171017:



I respect you & enjoy reading your meteorology-related posts, but this is just really ignorant.
Okay, rather than just do a driveby, tell me why you think it was ignorant.
Quoting 139. BayFog:


Maybe that aid could be made contingent on acres of forest NOT burned. For every acre/sq km burned, less aid.
Too late :
Indonesia has accepted help from Singapore, Australia and now US$2.75 million from the US – yet the fires are out of control.
Link
Quoting 84. Naga5000:



Tamino has a great blog post on what this means in terms of specific events of flooding. For example, here is a plot of the number of flood days for Atlantic City, NJ.



This includes storms, nuisance flooding, and tides.






Atlantic City is the northernmost city on long, narrow Absecon Island; going south it's Ventnor, Margate, and Longport. That last spike in the late 1970's happened when a bunch of wetlands to the west and north of the island behind and to the north of AC were filled in prior to more casino construction. I was pretty sure the floods were part of tidal surges suddenly having less place to go. Looks like by the numbers it subsided; maybe alternate channels were carved by the constant flooding. (Or maybe it was just flooding was caused by El Nino. When I was a kid growing up there, we didn't have any such thing as El Nino. :))


Also almost all the little peeper frogs that came out every springtime pretty much vanished.
At least the WPC has finally figured out I'm really not going to get any rain. The Boys in Birmingham still have me listed as a 60% chance of rain. I guess it's hard to let go of a forecast sometimes.

Quoting 161. nonblanche:



Atlantic City is the northernmost city on long, narrow Absecon Island; going south it's Ventnor, Margate, and Longport. That last spike in the late 1970's happened when a bunch of wetlands to the west and north of the island behind and to the north of AC were filled in prior to more casino construction. I was pretty sure the floods were part of tidal surges suddenly having less place to go. Looks like by the numbers it subsided; maybe alternate channels were carved by the constant flooding. (Or maybe it was just flooding was caused by El Nino. When I was a kid growing up there, we didn't have any such thing as El Nino. :))


Also almost all the little peeper frogs that came out every springtime pretty much vanished.

Wasn't Ventnor another place name in Monopoly? When I was there last I tried to hunt down all the streets that were used in Monopoly and take a picture of the street sign. There were a few of them that I didn't feel like it was worth risking my life to get a picture. Once you leave the Boardwalk, things deteriorate pretty quickly.
Quoting 163. sar2401:


Wasn't Ventnor another place name in Monopoly? When I was there last I tried to hunt down all the streets that were used in Monopoly and take a picture of the street sign. There were a few of them that I didn't feel like it was worth risking my life to get a picture. Once you leave the Boardwalk, things deteriorate pretty quickly.


OK, AC Monopoly Trivia. Weather related comment at the end. :)

If you're going to try for the street sign photo thing, avoid the dark purple, Mediterranian and Baltic avenues. If you must, go in daylight, take a cab (if one will take you) and pay the driver to wait.

Arctic Avenue, easiest to pick up as you come east over the Albany Avenue bridge, look for it on the left (that puts you right near the ground level apartment my brother got when Mom kicked him out.) (Is there an Arctic ave on the game board? I forget.)

States street names, you don't want to go much north of Pennsylvania ave. Once again, if you must, um... have fun with that. Oh, while you're at that corner, see the drug store there? Pennsylvania and Atlantic? Mom and Dad used to co-own the apartment building that burned down on that corner (after they sold it.)

Ocean names run parallel to the Boardwalk. Park Place intersects the Boardwalk, you'll have to go on the boards to get there. So, from the Boardwalk, it's Pacific, Atlantic, Arctic, Mediterranian, Baltic. Was there another in there? I don't think so. And, um, South Carolina Ave (I think) was renamed to MLK Boulevard. All the best night clubs and dance clubs, most of them gay bars, are on New York Avenue.

Which street on the board is NOT in Atlantic City? It's the one that is spelled wrong. Marvin Gardens is a later era "nice" neighborhood, before they called them subdivisions, that straddles the border of MARgate and VENtnor. It's actually Marven Gardens. Used to be a neat kind of import candy store I'd stop in near there, on my way to my best friend Jodie's house.

Oh, then there's Brigantine, northwest-ish of Atlantic City, connected by a bridge, it's pretty much a built-up sandspit. Were you watching CNN during the aftermath of Sandy? Brigantine got hammered, and the one lady they showed Obama hugging and talking to was someone I went to High School with. Not a friend, just someone I recognized. (Her reaction when he asked if insurance would cover the damage was priceless! "You... can't buy insurance for docks." That incredulous look when the leader of the free world says something clueless to you, and you can't cut your Irish loose on him.)
45w 12n late october surprise? some folks have said due to the globe warming our seasons will be extended.
Good morning and afternoon, all. It's pleasant 59 degrees in west central Louisiana this morning. We had more rain last night, not much, but we're still drying out from the weekend. Just in time for this weekend's rain.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Quoting 102. wunderkidcayman:

hey guys I'm back in full swing (sorta) I just got a new computer

so no more hassle like with what I have using my IPad
Super! It's hard trying to do everything a tablet,no matter how sophisticated...
Indonesians take fight against haze into their own hands
By AFP, Published: October 28, 2015
PALANGKARAYA, INDONESIA: Desperate civilians at the epicentre of Indonesia’s haze crisis are taking the fight into their own hands, using whatever meagre resources they have to confront the fires ravaging their communities as they tire of waiting for the government to take action. ...

Indonesia haze: Philippines issues health warnings as deadly haze from forest fires reaches Manila
By Indonesia correspondent Adam Harvey in Kalimantan, wires, Updated about 3 hours ago
The Philippine government has issued health warnings and ordered its hospitals to prepare for patients with breathing problems, as haze from Indonesian forest fires spreads to the capital, Manila. ...
Quoting 108. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Rainfall warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Heavy rainfall will begin later tonight across the regions and continue until Wednesday evening. Rainfall amounts of 45 to 55 millimetres are expected. Hazards may include power outages due to heavy downpours causing tree limbs to fall on power lines. Water pooling on roads may result from heavy downpours or debris blocking drains.

Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Please monitor local media or Weatheradio. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.

Looks like you all are next in line for a serious soaking....
Quoting 169. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. It's pleasant 59 degrees in west central Louisiana this morning. We had more rain last night, not much, but we're still drying out from the weekend. Just in time for this weekend's rain.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Morning, aislinn.... even the oatmeal sounds good, and I'm not a great fan of the stuff .... lol ... I'm actually eating toast, but I have a wonderful imagination .... :o)

It starting to look like we may indeed be in for a wetter than average fall / early winter. We got down to 75 overnight, which is really nice. It looks fairly overcast out there again this morning, so hopefully we'll stay below 85 for the daytime high. I'm enjoying the dry while I can - it appears we also have a rainy weekend coming up, just in time for the trick or treaters ....
before florida goes under water the water level needs to reach 1994 levels. not even close yet. e cen fl.
175. MahFL
Quoting 112. ColoradoBob1:

The burning in Indonesia this year, is the same as the entire year of greenhouse gases in the US.


Yes but it's only one year in 4.5 Billion...
Quoting 175. MahFL:



Yes but it's only one year in 4.5 Billion...
I'm just glad I don't live there. I'd probably expire because I couldn't respire ...
178. MahFL
Quoting 176. BahaHurican:

I'm just glad I don't live there. I'd probably expire because I couldn't respire ...


The wildfires in NE Florida of 1998 were similar, we had ash falling out the sky like snow, in July.
Nice downpour for me this morning in Tampa. Heavy rain for about 20-30 minutes that dropped 0.80". This is compared to only 0.47" yesterday when there were patches of rain for most of the day.
Quoting 177. MahFL:


children are cheap in that part of the world...
Oh, please. If you can infer that from one snapshot, what would you say about this?



You know, Xenophobia is curable.
Good Morning. The current look for Conus and the rain creeping into the Great Lakes; at least Conus jet has "split" but the gap over the Lakes should keep severe winds down in spite of the rain:
Central Great Lakes sector loop

Quoting 174. islander101010:

before florida goes under water the water level needs to reach 1994 levels. not even close yet. e cen fl.
Your personal anecdote notwithstanding, the data disagree with you:

(Click for a larger, interactive map)
Quoting 169. aislinnpaps:

Good morning and afternoon, all. It's pleasant 59 degrees in west central Louisiana this morning. We had more rain last night, not much, but we're still drying out from the weekend. Just in time for this weekend's rain.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, Cajun Breakfast Casserole, Green Chili Breakfast Burrito Casserole, Cinnamon Pecan Rolls, Pumpkin Pie Coffee Cake with Pecan Crumble, cinnamon oatmeal with bruleed Bananas, Red-Pepper omelet, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, tea, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!


Honestly, if I ate like this I'd cause coastal flooding whenever I'd get near the beach due to my gravitational pull. :P
184. beell
Quoting 177. MahFL:



I noted that yesterday, children are cheap in that part of the world...


As others have already stated...poor judgement is not constrained by geography. Same could be said of poorly formed opinions.
Quoting 175. MahFL:



Yes but it's only one year in 4.5 Billion...


*facepalm* Well you certainly can't beat that logic.

I suppose you think a couple milligrams of ricin won't kill you either. After all, such a tiny insignificant amount couldn't possibly affect something that's millions of times larger, right?
I hope you guys are ready for Summer starting later this weekend as it is looking hot with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms everyday beginning Sunday according to the GFS. Check out these PWAT's that are being forecasted by the GFS starting on Sunday. This is just unreal as Fall has been absent this year, Also the GFS and to a degree the Euro is showing a solid surge of deep tropical moisture mid next week coming up from the Bahamas.

Sunday evening.


Monday evening.


Tuesday evening.


Wednesday evening


Thursday evening
Quoting 143. hydrus:

I guess its walk away or drown. Besides, we live here at the mercy of what ever occurs.. Some people are born in regions known for devastating disasters, and are to poor to leave. I know people who left the place they were born and raised to avoid getting killed by catastrophes that plague the area. My parents left south Florida due to the 2004 Hurricane Season. Dont say I blame them either, considering how bad the damage and cost was. Tens of thousands were said to have left South Florida after Andrew, and some said they would never return.
Apparent sea level change can vary quite a bit in a relatively small area. On the Olympic peninsula, the western portion is uplifted from riding over the subduction zone, so it seems locally as if the sea level is dropping. On the eastern portion, at Port Townsend, the land is subsiding to balance out the rise of the west, so apparent sea level is rising faster. Link

What's also interesting about this is that the west end is more politically conservative, and Port Townsend is very liberal. The two areas are seeing what they expect to experience, so it's kind of a reinforcement of popular local sentiment.
Quoting 180. Neapolitan:

Oh, please. If you can infer that from one snapshot, what would you say about this?



You know, Xenophobia is curable.


I noticed that yesterday as we have some who feel they are above the Human race,....


They know not what they are.
Where is my post.
nov 1994 the sea water was over the sea walls up into the yards. its no where near that now. let you all know what happens in nov. as nov is the time of yr that has the highest waters. ecen fl.
Your post is where the losts socks go.

Good luck
Quoting 191. NativeSun:

Where is my post.
Hello N.S..I lost a couple posts too during the past 24 hours...Ghost in the machine.
well here in el paso the rainy season that never ends keeps on coming......monsoon season is officially over however we can expect wet weather starting tomorrow through saturday.......more hail expected throughout the area with some storms to boot......at this time of year...my grass should be brown....leaves should be falling from the trees and a dry wind should be blowing.....
Quoting 192. NativeSun:

Where is my post.

Quoting 193. islander101010:

nov 1994 the sea water was over the sea walls up into the yards. its no where near that now. let you all know what happens in nov. as nov is the time of yr that has the highest waters. ecen fl.


Again, your area is protected quite a bit from sea level rise as I posted previously, specifically your area of observation. However, personal eye balling cannot be used as evidence of anything. All locations in Florida have seen no decrease in sea level. The 2010 report is an excellent primer on the subject.
Quoting 198. Naga5000:



Again, your area is protected quite a bit from sea level rise as I posted previously, specifically your area of observation. However, personal eye balling cannot be used as evidence of anything. All locations in Florida have seen no decrease in sea level. The 2010 report is an excellent primer on the subject.


just another...my backyard, my world mentality.....and i'm afraid...no matter what you show...you won't change it
200. beell
Quoting 190. Patrap:



I noticed that yesterday as we have some who feel they are above the Human race,....


They know not what they are.



Was that aimed at me, Pat? Y/N
201. ariot
I saw some comments down thread about the family on a scooter.

Don't miss the major point there.

The photo shows 3 or 4 people using a comparative thimble-full of fuel to get from one point to another.

Try to compare that family with U.S. BAU . Let that sink in.

Sure, baby needs a helmet, but that ain't the freakin' point.
Quoting 186. StormTrackerScott:

I hope you guys are ready for Summer starting later this weekend as it is looking hot with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms everyday beginning Sunday according to the GFS. Check out these PWAT's that are being forecasted by the GFS starting on Sunday. This is just unreal as Fall has been absent this year, Also the GFS and to a degree the Euro is showing a solid surge of deep tropical moisture mid next week coming up from the Bahamas.

Sunday evening.


Monday evening.


Tuesday evening.


Wednesday evening


Thursday evening




summer in the E colder in the W this is a 100% flip flop this year
Well, say hello to our new IBM overlords.
well its a dark rainy windy day
coming down good here
rain heavy at times
lights outside just shut off as the
sensor finally decided it was light enough
Quoting 180. Neapolitan:

Oh, please. If you can infer that from one snapshot, what would you say about this?



You know, Xenophobia is curable.
Utah license. Good chance of rain Mormons.
It is not happenstance that here, many are united in improving the Human condition.

The wunderground curve is steep. It has risen way above the din of Political jargon and BS.

Work together and accomplish for the greater good.

Enjoy a walk in nature, center oneself and the path forward will present itself.



Quoting 185. Xyrus2000:



*facepalm* Well you certainly can't beat that logic.

I suppose you think a couple milligrams of ricin won't kill you either. After all, such a tiny insignificant amount couldn't possibly affect something that's millions of times larger, right?

Like 35 grams of cyanide for a normal human body: 400 ppm couldn't possibly make a difference.
Ricine has a special property by the way: one can be immune for it.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice Oct 27
Today marks another RECORD high amplitude of +4.96 standard deviations above average for the ongoing #ElNino per AEI


Quoting 177. MahFL:



I noted that yesterday, children are cheap in that part of the world...


There are two children on the front of that motorcycle!
Quoting 108. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Rainfall warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Heavy rainfall will begin later tonight across the regions and continue until Wednesday evening. Rainfall amounts of 45 to 55 millimetres are expected. Hazards may include power outages due to heavy downpours causing tree limbs to fall on power lines. Water pooling on roads may result from heavy downpours or debris blocking drains.

Watch for possible washouts near rivers, creeks and culverts.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required. Please monitor local media or Weatheradio. To report severe weather, send an email to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.



Hope you guys had a safe and not to wet night. Thanks for the updates you gave us in NOLA on Sunday night. This has been some storm!
Quoting 208. Tazmanian:

Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice Oct 27
Today marks another RECORD high amplitude of +4.96 standard deviations above average for the ongoing #ElNino per AEI



as of two days ago

"IBM announced Wednesday that it has purchased the Weather Company. It is essentially buying everything except the actual TV network. IBM is taking the Weather Company's digital assets, including the uber-popular Weather Channel mobile app, weather.com, and -- most crucially for IBM -- all the company's forecasting data and technology."

Source
(Add: re: Fig. 3) Well, it's a motor scooter, but still quite a feat to drive with two kids in front of you. Possible they were leaving a fire area. They do have some bags with them.

Quoting 206. Patrap:

It is not happenstance that here, many are united in improving the Human condition.

The wunderground curve is steep. It has risen way above the din of Political jargon and BS.

Work together and accomplish for the greater good.

Enjoy a walk in nature, center oneself and the path forward will present itself.




LOL Really? Thanks for the chuckle, Pat.
Have a nice walk.
Quoting 194. Patrap:

Your post is where the losts socks go.

Good luck


You mean the dryer ate them?
Quoting 210. jazzygal:



Hope you guys had a safe and not to wet night. Thanks for the updates you gave us in NOLA on Sunday night. This has been some storm!
been pouring here just over 40 mm now with another 10 to 20mm or so to come
216. csmda
Quoting 201. ariot:

I saw some comments down thread about the family on a scooter.

Don't miss the major point there.

The photo shows 3 or 4 people using a comparative thimble-full of fuel to get from one point to another.

Try to compare that family with U.S. BAU . Let that sink in.

Sure, baby needs a helmet, but that ain't the freakin' point.


Seriously?! Why are the adults wearing a helmet? Is it because there is a helmet law? I highly doubt it. It's because they want to protect their head AND they want to protect their face/eyes from flying objects/insects. Therefore, wouldn't you stop to think maybe your children would feel the same discomfort? Do you know what a bird could do to a small child's face at high rates of speed? Which is just one of the many things that could go wrong in that situation. The fact that you think the amount of gas they're using in that scenario is the bigger picture, well...
Quoting 212. Drakoen:

"IBM announced Wednesday that it has purchased the Weather Company. It is essentially buying everything except the actual TV network. IBM is taking the Weather Company's digital assets, including the uber-popular Weather Channel mobile app, weather.com, and -- most crucially for IBM -- all the company's forecasting data and technology."

Source



wait till you see the new mods they been working on in the basement

Funny, the article link to the IBM purchase of the Weather Company does not mention wunderground that I could see, just WSI.

IBM interested in data, it says. The reliability of data from wu weather stations is questionable at best, and horrible at worst. Maybe that's why.

Wonder what'll happen this site and to WUTV?
Quoting 218. Barefootontherocks:

Funny, the article link to the IBM purchase of the Weather Company does not mention wunderground that I could see, just WSI.

IBM interested in data, it says. The reliability of data from wu weather stations is questionable at best, and horrible at worst. Maybe that's why.

Wonder what'll happen this site and to WUTV?


Press Release from IBM does
Quoting 219. nrtiwlnvragn:



Press Release from IBM does
Thank you, nrt. I see that press release mentions wunderground.com as part of the purchase. Nothing else specific to this site that I saw. I hope additional news will show up here, there or anywhere.
Quoting 221. Barefootontherocks:

Thank you, nrt. I see that press release mentions wunderground.com as part of the purchase, Nothing else specific to this site that I saw. I hope additional news will show up here, there or anywhere.


Maybe IBM can help with the frequent issue with the blog shutting down for hours at a time. It happened again last night.
Quoting 216. csmda:



Seriously?! Why are the adults wearing a helmet? Is it because there is a helmet law? I highly doubt it. It's because they want to protect their head AND they want to protect their face/eyes from flying objects/insects. Therefore, wouldn't you stop to think maybe your children would feel the same discomfort? Do you know what a bird could do to a small child's face at high rates of speed? Which is just one of the many things that could go wrong in that situation. The fact that you think the amount of gas they're using in that scenario is the bigger picture, well...
You're missing the point. Several people here have ignored the massive pollution in the image above to focus on the childless helmet, and then expand that into ignorant xenophobic comments about how "they" don't care about their children. Aside from the fact that nothing about how "they" feel about their children can be ascertained by looking at a single snapshot (see #180), the commenter to whom you're responding is making a good point: wearing motorcycle safety gear is no more important than doing one's part to cut down on pollution.
Quoting 221. Barefootontherocks:

Thank you, nrt. I see that press release mentions wunderground.com as part of the purchase, Nothing else specific to this site that I saw. I hope additional news will show up here, there or anywhere.


What?

"IBM (NYSE: IBM) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire The Weather Company%u2019s B2B, mobile and cloud-based web properties, including WSI, weather.com, Weather Underground and The Weather Company brand."

I would assume it would be in its entirety.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #2
DEEP DEPRESSION ARB04-2015
17:30 PM IST October 28 2015
=============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, The Depression over southeast Arabian Sea and adjoining areas of southwest and central Arabian Sea moved north northwestwards and intensified into a deep depression. The deep depression lays centered over east central and adjoining west central and south Arabian Sea near 12.5N 64.7E, about 1350 km southwest of Mumbai and about 1250 km southeast of Salalah (Oman).

It would move north northwestwards and intensify into a cyclonic storm during next 24 hours. It would then move westwards towards Yemen and adjoining Oman coasts.

According to satellite imagery, Dvorak intensity is T2.0.

Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded moderate to intense convection over Arabian sea lie between 9.0N to 15.0N and 62.0E to 70.0E the cloud top temperature around the system center is -78C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The estimated central pressure of the deep depression is 1003 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 13.0N 64.3E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 13.8N 63.4E - 40-45 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 14.0N 61.4E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 14.2N 58.9E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

Additional Information
================
The convection increased in past 12 hours with increase in organization. The winds are higher over the northeastern sector. The sea surface temperature around the system center is 30C. The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80 kj/cm2 around system center and is less than 50 kj/cm2 over Gulf of Aden and adjoining Arabian sea. The vertical wind shear is about 10-20 knots (moderate) around the system center. The low level relative vorticity and convergence have increased during past 12 hours. There is favorable poleward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 13.0N.

Most of the numerical weather prediction models are suggesting gradual intensification of the deep depression into a cyclonic storm in next 24 hours. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system. Considering the movement, most of the models are unanimous about initial north northwestward up to 1200UTC October 29th and then westward/west northwestward movement towards Yemen and adjoining Oman coasts across Gulf of Aden.
Quoting 206. Patrap:

It is not happenstance that here, many are united in improving the Human condition.

The wunderground curve is steep. It has risen way above the din of Political jargon and BS.

Work together and accomplish for the greater good.

Enjoy a walk in nature, center oneself and the path forward will present itself.




Absolutely...Let good flow..pile it on...:)...
Quoting 224. Drakoen:



What?

"IBM (NYSE: IBM) today announced that it has entered into a definitive agreement to acquire The Weather Company%u2019s B2B, mobile and cloud-based web properties, including WSI, weather.com, Weather Underground and The Weather Company brand."

I would assume it would be in its entirety.
Drak,
I wasn't questioning whether or not wu had been purchased. That was clear. The article you linked stated everything but the TV channel, The Weather Channel, had been bought.

The body of the article mentioned WSI and its gazillions of triggerbytes of data, but nothing about wunderground. Nowhere that I've seen - yet. Anyone seen any mention - any mention - of IBM's use/intent for wunderground? Is this site is extraneous to IBM's purpose? This is what I did not see in your article. Add: or nrt's.

(quote and punctuation added)
Quoting 222. tampabaymatt:


Maybe IBM can help with the frequent issue with the blog shutting down for hours at a time. It happened again last night.



Raising the subscription to $195/year should do it ;-)
Deleted
Reading comprehension at its finest.

Anyways, looks like things will be warming up after this weekend as the models show a negative PNA, positive NAO/AO ensuing.
Quite the system. No doubt the gulf system from earlier this week contributed to this.

Winds are expected to pick up and become strong this afternoon and tonight (40 MPH gusts are said to be possible). And it's rainsheild covers a lot of area.

If this had happened when it was colder, it would have provoked winter storm and blizzard warnings over a wide area.

It is supposed to drag down cold air into the moisture on the back end resulting in our first snowfall. Albeit a light one that will melt right away.


But it is supposed to be 50 degrees for the trick or treaters on Halloween. :-)




232. ariot
Quoting 216. csmda:



Seriously?! Why are the adults wearing a helmet? Is it because there is a helmet law? I highly doubt it. It's because they want to protect their head AND they want to protect their face/eyes from flying objects/insects. Therefore, wouldn't you stop to think maybe your children would feel the same discomfort? Do you know what a bird could do to a small child's face at high rates of speed? Which is just one of the many things that could go wrong in that situation. The fact that you think the amount of gas they're using in that scenario is the bigger picture, well...


I know all about helmets. Thanks. Probably a few hundred thousand miles traveled wearing one for Uncle Sam and on my own bikes, mopeds, crotch rockets and POS H-Ds.

People are applying their ideal of helmet safety (part of our BAU) to someone else while the very slashing and burning that caused the fire (thus the picture) are to fund western BAU (agriculture) for billions more people (palm oil, pulp wood and livestock). They are riding that moped without helmets on the kids because they want to be just like you and me and have we you have.

The much larger point is that we can't compete globally with a family that will do what they're doing, on a relative thimble full of fuel, but we are currently trying to do just that. I thought that was clear. My fat ass in a passenger car can not and should not have to compete with my inlaws riding five up on a moped.

To solve our problems we have to think big. Not small.

Quoting 230. Drakoen:

Reading comprehension at its finest.

Anyways, looks like things will be warming up after this weekend as the models show a negative PNA, positive NAO/AO ensuing.


Is that directed at me?

Quoting 227. Barefootontherocks:

Drak,
I wasn't questioning whether or not wu had been purchased. That was clear. The article you linked stated everything but the TV channel, The Weather Channel, had been bought.

The body of the article mentioned WSI and its gazillions of triggerbytes of data, but nothing about wunderground. Nowhere that I've seen - yet. Anyone seen any mention - any mention - of IBM's use/intent for wunderground? Is this site is extraneous to IBM's purpose? This is what I did not see in your article. Add: or nrt's.

(quote and punctuation added)

(Comment 227 quote added)
Quoting 173. BahaHurican:

Morning, aislinn.... even the oatmeal sounds good, and I'm not a great fan of the stuff .... lol ... I'm actually eating toast, but I have a wonderful imagination .... :o)

It starting to look like we may indeed be in for a wetter than average fall / early winter. We got down to 75 overnight, which is really nice. It looks fairly overcast out there again this morning, so hopefully we'll stay below 85 for the daytime high. I'm enjoying the dry while I can - it appears we also have a rainy weekend coming up, just in time for the trick or treaters ....


You have trick or treaters in the Bahamas?
Quoting 186. StormTrackerScott:

I hope you guys are ready for Summer starting later this weekend as it is looking hot with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms everyday beginning Sunday according to the GFS. Check out these PWAT's that are being forecasted by the GFS starting on Sunday. This is just unreal as Fall has been absent this year, Also the GFS and to a degree the Euro is showing a solid surge of deep tropical moisture mid next week coming up from the Bahamas.

Sunday evening.


Monday evening.


Tuesday evening.


Wednesday evening


Thursday evening



DC metro departures from normal temps have not been notable and I'm not expecting the kind of near tropical surge we very occasionally get in October.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 161. nonblanche:



Atlantic City is the northernmost city on long, narrow Absecon Island; going south it's Ventnor, Margate, and Longport. That last spike in the late 1970's happened when a bunch of wetlands to the west and north of the island behind and to the north of AC were filled in prior to more casino construction. I was pretty sure the floods were part of tidal surges suddenly having less place to go. Looks like by the numbers it subsided; maybe alternate channels were carved by the constant flooding. (Or maybe it was just flooding was caused by El Nino. When I was a kid growing up there, we didn't have any such thing as El Nino. :))


Also almost all the little peeper frogs that came out every springtime pretty much vanished.


We still have the peepers in DC. A wonderful early spring sound!

El Nino spring 1983 produced extremely heavy rains in late March through April in New Jersey.. something like 10" in the late March to late April period. May was also wet, then summer turned extremely (for New Jersey) hot and dry and the heat was dynamic with a lot of downsloping and lower dewpoints in the afternoon. Lots of cold fronts that summer.. frontal passage was good for a few cool hours on one night, then the sun came out the next day and destroyed it in hours.. back to heat. The only summer I've had over 50% loss of my tomatoes from blossom end rot.. the whole stinking summer! the runner up summer was 1988 in DC, less that 5% loss. 102F in Princeton on Sept 11 1983 BTW.. SEPTEMBER!! [ and maybe 2F Christmas day three months later]




Hopefully Dr. Masters will mention the IBM thing and whether it will have any impact on TWC/this site. I doubt it but I am still trying to figure out why IBM would purchase a weather interest company..........Probably related to long-term strategic goals, and income flow, and not anything actually related to the weather........................................... .................
240. MahFL
Quoting 201. ariot:

>Sure, baby needs a helmet, but that ain't the freakin' point.


It's a fair point though, also they could be using a bus, which is less polluting.
241. MahFL
Quoting 223. Neapolitan:

Aside from the fact that nothing about how "they" feel about their children can be ascertained by looking at a single snapshot.


My comments are not made on looking at one picture, thank you.
242. MahFL
Quoting 238. weathermanwannabe:

Hopefully Dr. Masters will mention the IBM thing and whether it will have any impact on TWC/this site. I doubt it but I am still trying to figure out why IBM would purchase a weather interest company..........Probably related to long-term strategic goals, and income flow, and not anything actually related to the weather........................................... .................

I t could be both, but companies don't by other companies in a charitable act, it's to make money. The company I work for was recently bought by another company, welcome to the world of Business.