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Weekend tornado outbreak causes heavy damage in Virginia, Iowa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:00 PM GMT on April 11, 2011

Floods, fires, and tornadoes hammered the nation this weekend, a sure sign that April is here. The severe weather action began on Friday night in the mid-Atlantic when twin tornadoes touched down in Pulaski, Virginia. The twisters, one a strong EF-1 with 105 - 110 mph winds, and the other an EF-2 with 125 mph winds damaged 450 buildings, caused $8 million in damage, and injured eight people. The most significant day of the weekend tornado outbreak occurred on Saturday as a powerful storm over the Upper Midwest dragged a cold front through Iowa. Twenty-seven tornado reports were recorded in Iowa by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center. The most powerful of these tornadoes was the huge, 3/4 mile-wide tornado that plowed through the tiny town of Mapleton, Iowa on Saturday evening, leaving a trail of destruction 3.5 miles long. The tornado, preliminarily rated as an EF-3 with 136 - 165 mph winds, flattened 20% of the town of 1200 residents and damaged half of the buildings. Fourteen were injured, but miraculously no one died. The severe weather continued on Sunday with seven reports of tornadoes over Wisconsin. The most serious was a tornado in Lincoln County, which destroyed or heavily damaged 30 buildings, and caused three serious injuries.


Figure 1. Tornado chaser video from Saturday's twisters over Iowa from tornadovideos.net.

More severe weather today
As the cold front that triggered the weekend's severe weather progresses eastwards across the U.S. today, NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed a wide swath of the Northeast and Southeast under their "slight" risk area for severe weather, one notch down from the "Medium" risk that was posted for Wisconsin on Sunday and Iowa on Saturday. Tuesday and Wednesday should be relatively quiet days for severe weather, but Thursday will see a renewed chance of a significant severe weather outbreak in the Oklahoma-Arkansas region, as a major new spring storm gathers strength over the Midwest.


Figure 2. Severe weather outlook from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center for Monday places much of the Northeast and Southeast in the "Slight" risk area for severe weather.

Tornado season near average so far this year
According to statistics compiled by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center, 2011's tornado season has been near-average so far. The preliminary number of tornadoes reported as of April 10 was 301, and the six-year average from 2006 - 2010 was 339. Preliminary tornado counts are typically about 15% too high, so the actual number of confirmed tornadoes will end up being around 256. The peak part of tornado season is just getting started--typically, only 17% of the season's activity has occurred by April 10. The number of strong (EF-2 and EF-3) tornadoes has been rather low so far; the Mapleton tornado was just the seventh EF-3 of 2011. There have been no violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes so far this year. The death toll of just three so far in 2011 is remarkably low for mid-April, a testament to good warnings and a good helping of luck.

Jeff Masters
Cold in April
Cold in April
Hail, wind, and rain came through with unknow damage as of now. did break windshilds.
Tornado-damaged house
Tornado-damaged house
Early Tuesday morning, a tornado raked along Ararat Road in Pilot Mountain, NC, damaging several houses and downing many trees. A cleanup crew was working on this one when we drove by on Sunday.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanks for the update and video!! spring has sprung in the northern plains :)

edit: and wow!!! the lightning lit night tornado... whoa
Thanks for the update, Doc.

From your blog post:

Preliminary tornado counts are typically about 15% too high, so the actual number of confirmed tornadoes will end up being around 256

And that percentage may have to be bumped even more with a recent change in the way the SPC will handle storm reports. We have to filter out the duplicates ourselves now. A cost cutter?

Well, at least we get a new vocab term out of it: de-duplicate

Please note: On March 8, 2011, the proximity space/time rule is no longer being utilized to de-duplicate events and minimal filtering is now applied to the decoded reports. All comments/remarks in the LSRs are captured on the raw files and the users can decide, for their own purposes, the best way to remove duplicate reports from the LSR's.
SPC Storm Reports
looked like a bad evening for some folks
Safes, cash wash up on Japan shores after tsunami
By TOMOKO A. HOSAKA, Associated Press Sun Apr 10, 11:29 pm ET

OFUNATO, Japan – There are no cars inside the parking garage at Ofunato police headquarters. Instead, hundreds of dented metal safes, swept out of homes and businesses by last month's tsunami, crowd the long rectangular building.

Any one could hold someone's life savings.

Safes are washing up along the tsunami-battered coast, and police are trying to find their owners — a unique problem in a country where many people, especially the elderly, still stash their cash at home. By one estimate, some $350 billion worth of yen doesn't circulate.

There's even a term for this hidden money in Japanese: "tansu yokin." Or literally, "wardrobe savings."

So the massive post-tsunami cleanup under way along hundreds of miles (kilometers) of Japan's ravaged northeastern coast involves the delicate business of separating junk from valuables. As workers and residents pick through the wreckage, they are increasingly stumbling upon cash and locked safes.

One month after the March 11 tsunami devastated Ofunato and other nearby cities, police departments already stretched thin now face the growing task of managing lost wealth.

"At first we put all the safes in the station," said Noriyoshi Goto, head of the Ofunato Police Department's financial affairs department, which is in charge of lost-and-found items. "But then there were too many, so we had to move them."

Goto couldn't specify how many safes his department has collected so far, saying only that there were "several hundreds" with more coming in every day.

Link
Hawaii low

Quoting beell:
Well, at least we get a new vocab term out of it: de-duplicate

Ah, we DBAs have been using that great word for a couple of decades now; it's right up there with "disambiguation" and "normalization". ;-)

Quoting Dr. Jeff Masters:
There have been no violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes so far this year.

Unless they're safely spinning away in the middle of some large and unpopulated piece of prairie, let's hope it stays that way (though I won't hold my breath).






Wow
Quoting Neapolitan:

Ah, we DBAs have been using that great word for a couple of decades now; it's right up there with "disambiguation" and "normalization". ;-)


Unless they're safely spinning away in the middle of some large and unpopulated piece of prairie, let's hope it stays that way (though I won't hold my breath).








And lest we forget, if an EF-5 causes no damage in the middle of some large and unpopulated piece of prairie-it's not an EF-5...disambiguous at least. Gotta be damage to get a damage rating.
;-]

That is one angry looking tornado! Great Post Doc!
Cool, DocM. Thanks especially for the details on the Mapleton tornado.

'morning, bl,
Thanks for pointing out "de-duplicate" stuff.

Hi Neo,
Does DBA=Dumb Banana Analyst? lol j/k I have no clue and I'm flying too fast to Google.
Boy it is been very hot in FL. Hit 93 yesterday here north of Orlando and maybe heading to 94 today. Very early to see it this hot and humid for early April. Also XCOOL post the MJO graph yesterday and boy it does look like an early start to the hurricane season is just a few weeks away as lots of upward motion is centered over the S Caribbean. Very early to see that type of set up as well.
Morning, bf.
DBA could be: "Doing Business As".
(self-employed) Not a bad gig if you can get it!



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0409
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0858 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CENTRAL KY....WRN AND MIDDLE TN...NRN
MS...AND SERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111358Z - 111500Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING ACROSS
WRN/CENTRAL KY SWWD THROUGH WRN-MIDDLE TN TO NRN MS/SERN AR.

AT 1340Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS
EXTENDING FROM FAR SWRN KY SWWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION. A
LONG-LIVED MCV ATTENDANT TO AN OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX WAS SUPPORTING THE NERN EXTENT OF ACTIVITY...CURRENTLY
MOVING INTO FAR WRN TN/FAR SWRN KY. 40-50 KT SWLY LLJ PARALLEL TO
AND LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH 400 M2 PER S2/ AS NOTED ON AREA
WSR-88D VWPS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AIR MASS IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM IS
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND LIKELY PRECLUDING A GREATER COVERAGE OF
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...12Z LIT SOUNDING
IS LIKELY MOST REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ENVIRONMENT INVOF THE ONGOING
TSTMS...WHICH GIVEN THE THERMODYNAMICS AND KINEMATICS SUPPORTS BOTH
A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT GIVEN ALMOST NON-EXISTENT
INHIBITION.

SWLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ADVECTING 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS NEWD IN ADVANCE
OF A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...WHICH EXTENDED FROM SRN OH TO FAR
WRN KY INTO ERN AR...COMBINED WITH DIABATIC HEATING FILTERED THROUGH
HIGHER CLOUDS WILL AID IN DOWNSTREAM DESTABILIZATION. THIS COMBINED
WITH STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING INTO THE MID SOUTH AND TN/OH
VALLEYS AND STRONG WIND FIELDS SUGGESTS A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
NEEDED THIS MORNING.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2011
The daily comparison:

2009

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2010

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2011

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Mapelton Tornado. Powerful.






More Photos
Quoting Neapolitan:
The daily comparison:

2009

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2010

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

2011

Appropriate tropical weather-related image.
Appropriate tropical weather-related image.

Action: Quote | Ignore User
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 3 Comments: 3701


There is going to be lots of heat in the Gulf this year to support some big Tropical systems. Gulf will most likely be well into the 80's by mid May. Which is early to see the Gulf that warm and the 26 C line covers it looks to be about 25 to 30 percent of the Gulf already.
DBA could be: "Doing Business As".

Thanks, bl.
I knew that. Doing business as just didn't work for me in the context of the SPC de-duplicating.

Last eve turned out interesting in OK and TX. At one point, the line of storms stretched clear from Laughlin AFB (that's Air Force Base. lol) to Ontario, CAnuckville.
The gulf is going to be loaded for the season. I can't archieve anything past 2009 on the website, but I am curious if this is as warm as the Gulf has been for this time of year since records have been kept? That is one HUGE eddie developing in the Gulf current.
Somehow I doubt that "much cooler drier air" will sweep over the area next Sunday. Its mid April, and warm air has been dominating since February. I don't think a cold front is now gonna bring much cooler air in mid April. I mean, I'm not gonna rule it out, but I'm not sure why forecasters would jump on the band wagon so soon. Chances are it won't be a very big deal at all.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
DBA could be: "Doing Business As".

Thanks, bl.
I knew that. Doing business as just didn't work for me in the context of the SPC de-duplicating.

Sorry; I should have been more clear. In the context I used, DBA = database administrator--a job that entails, among many other things, deduplication of data.

And that ends today's IT lesson. ;-)


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0410
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0946 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SRN-SERN AR....FAR NRN LA AND CENTRAL/NRN
MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111446Z - 111515Z

A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE NEEDED SOON FOR PARTS OF SRN/SERN AR...FAR
NRN LA INTO CENTRAL/NRN MS. THIS CONCERN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A
RECENT INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SWRN/SRN AR...WITH THE
EVENTUAL TORNADO WATCH POTENTIALLY EXTENDING FARTHER NWD INTO TN/KY
/REFER TO SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #409/.

MID MORNING OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AN AREA OF SURFACE PRESSURE
FALLS /2-4 MB PER 3 HRS/ EXTENDING FROM NRN LA INTO SRN AR AND
CENTERED ON THE AR/LA BORDER
. SURFACE WINDS OVER SERN AR/NERN LA
INDICATED BACKING WINDS DURING THE LAST 1-2 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO
THESE PRESSURE FALLS
. THIS COMBINED WITH BACKING LOW LEVEL WINDS
PER NRN LA WIND PROFILER ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING EWD AHEAD OF THE SRN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND COOLING CLOUD TOPS PER IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF EXPANDING TSTM COVERAGE OVER SRN AR
WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING ENE AT 45-50 KT. AS COMPARED TO AREAS
FARTHER N INTO TN/KY...GREATER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE ACROSS THIS
REGION WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. THIS COMBINED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTING STRONG DIABATIC HEATING WILL
SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
. STRONG WIND FIELDS
AND HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING EWD TODAY WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITH A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT

EXPECTED...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS FAVORING
THE FORMER THREAT.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2011
dba=database administrator
Quoting Neapolitan:

Sorry; I should have been more clear. In the context I used, DBA = database administrator--a job that entails, among many other things, deduplication of data.

And that ends today's IT lesson. ;-)


Thanks for the clarification. Sounds exciting! Glad to know-I can ditch the hyphen.
,,,BTO,,?


Taking Care of Business
I guess the severe weather threat didn't turn out as bad in Wisconsin as it was expected to be. Maybe the storms were too elevated because it is the far northern plain in April instead of summer. But then again I don't really know cause I didn't pay much attention.
Quoting TampaSpin:



That is UTC time........that happened several hours ago, 4 hours ago.
These earthquakes are amazing..The energy being released is astounding to me...And we here in middle Tennessee are about to be nailed yet again with bad weather. Winds are gusting to over 30 already..img src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/rgb-l. jp
The recent (8:16:16GMT) magnitude6.6earthquake struck
42miles(~67.6kilometres) at 227.1degrees(SW) from FukushimaDaiichi
100miles(~161kilometres) at 23degrees(NNE) from centralTokyo

followed within 42minutes by a magnitude5.2 and a magnitude5.0
(as represented by the two unconnected dots)
Then (11:42:36GMT) yet another, a magnitude5.6 (near where the 6.6 struck)
45miles(~72.4kilometres) from FukushimaDaiichi
97miles(~156kilometres) from central Tokyo
Quoting Neapolitan:

Sorry; I should have been more clear. In the context I used, DBA = database administrator--a job that entails, among many other things, deduplication of data.

And that ends today's IT lesson. ;-)


Thanks, Nea.

Quoting eddy12:
dba=database administrator

Thanks, Eddy.
...
(mod)
Past time for me to TCB. Later...
HEY GUYS ITS TIME TO FREAK OUT, THE SPC JUST ISSUED ANOTHER "SEE TEXT" TOMORROW FOR FLORIDA!

WE ARE ALL DOOM, ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS ARRIVING FAST.
30. IKE
  • Oil 1.86
  • Price/barrel $112.16
Quoting Jedkins01:
HEY GUYS ITS TIME TO FREAK OUT, THE SPC JUST ISSUED ANOTHER "SEE TEXT" TOMORROW FOR FLORIDA!

WE ARE ALL DOOM, ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS ARRIVING FAST.
.....thats it...i,ma goin down to Floridy to put up me shudders....*&^*&^*&^*&*
Quoting IKE:
  • Oil 1.86
  • Price/barrel $112.16
I wish I could buy a barrel of gas for that...he he...
areas becoming favorable for dev in east pacific basin



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 128
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1030 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND MIDDLE TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1030 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 90 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
MONTICELLO ARKANSAS TO 60 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BOWLING GREEN
KENTUCKY. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WIND FIELD ROTATING
EWD ACROSS LWR MS VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON DEVELOPING A SURFACE WAVE ON
FRONTAL ZONE SRN AR. STRONG HEATING WILL INCREASE INSTABILITY EWD
AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WATCH. THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASING ACROSS CENTRAL SRN AR WILL MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW WITH AN ENHANCED WIND PROFILE SUPPORTING BOTH DAMAGING
WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES THRU THE AFTERNOON.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.


...HALES
Quoting hydrus:
.....thats it...i,ma goin down to Floridy to put up me shudders....*&^*&^*&^*&*


hunker down boys, hunker down!
Quoting Jedkins01:
I guess the severe weather threat didn't turn out as bad in Wisconsin as it was expected to be. Maybe the storms were too elevated because it is the far northern plain in April instead of summer. But then again I don't really know cause I didn't pay much attention.


There were about 6 reports of tornadoes across the state yesterday. Damage surveys are taking place now. Here's a quick map of some of the storm reports from NWSO Minneapolis:

Orange dots are damaging winds
Blue dots are large hail
Green dots are flash flooding


Quoting Jax82:

That's amazing; it shows a warm-up in many parts of the northern Gulf of up to six degrees Celsius (nine degrees Fahrenheit) in just a bit over three weeks.
Little Rock Arkansas

Quoting TampaSpin:

Gee willikers, the front isn't obvious on that map AT ALL.

(and nasty shear incoming for the TN valley...
Quoting TampaSpin:
Little Rock Arkansas



Not much shear, but plenty of wind from any storms that pass through (or move past) there.
Quoting jeffs713:

Gee willikers, the front isn't obvious on that map AT ALL.

(and nasty shear incoming for the TN valley...
Quoting jeffs713:


Not much shear, but plenty of wind from any storms that pass through (or move past) there.



Does not appear for much in Tornado dynamics are in place yet.....,but that can change from the heating of the day...yet!
Oil -$1.38
Quoting TampaSpin:

What is post 45 a map of sir? Thanks


29. Jedkins01 3:24 PM GMT on April 11, 2011
HEY GUYS ITS TIME TO FREAK OUT, THE SPC JUST ISSUED ANOTHER "SEE TEXT" TOMORROW FOR FLORIDA!

WE ARE ALL DOOM, ANOTHER SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS ARRIVING FAST.


LOL: It is not official until RastaSteve makes the announcement
I see spc just upgraded to moderate in parts of the south
Not surprised that SPC went to moderate in certain locations......Record highs on tap today for some locations in the South with lots of moisture surging up from the Gulf............It might not be pretty going into Tueday but hopefully the Cape values will not be too elevated as the front pushes through.
Balmy, hot and moist here in SCentral Ms.....just wondering what that long tail will bring across here later..:0
Another decent-sized earthquake hit Japan today... revised down to 6.6 (from 7.1), but this one hit onshore and a bit closer to Tokyo than previous quakes, so I imagine it rattled quite a few nerves. No reports of damage or injuries yet, but they did briefly lose power at the Fukushima Daichi reactor.... I guess things aren't going to quiet down there anytime soon...

Little Rock is already W of the wind shift-no problems.
It is supposed to hit 92 degrees today in Gainesville, FL. Yes, the GOM will be heating up a lot prior to hurricane season even starting.
Quoting MrMixon:
Another decent-sized earthquake hit Japan today... revised down to 6.6 (from 7.1), but this one hit onshore and a bit closer to Tokyo than previous quakes, so I imagine it rattled quite a few nerves. No reports of damage or injuries yet, but they did briefly lose power at the Fukushima Daichi reactor.... I guess things aren't going to quiet down there anytime soon...



Glad to here the power is back up....last week, they were beginning to be less intense....but not to be, I guess.
Best indicated surface convergence and surface pressure falls are currently located right at the TN/MS borders-near the Mississippi River.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
#59


A knife's edge...


DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1109 AM CDT MON APR 11 2011

A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SE OF MIGRATORY SURFACE
LOW TRACK WHERE AN ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED WIND FIELD WILL ENHANCE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED BY THE ANTICIPATED LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND THE
ABOVE-MENTIONED TENDENCY FOR DEEPER BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WHICH WILL
INCREASE T-TD SPREADS.


(Click graphic for full text and additional graphics)
I was wondering if anyone could tell me what the map in post 45 is displaying? Thanks
Quoting jitterboy:
I was wondering if anyone could tell me what the map in post 45 is displaying? Thanks
I agree Jitterboy. Without an indication of what the map denotes, it is useless.
Here's a tsunami video slightly taken from a slight different viewpoint from one that was released earlier. Absolutely incredible destruction...with a bit of selfless bravery thrown at the end.

Quoting jitterboy:
I was wondering if anyone could tell me what the map in post 45 is displaying? Thanks


RUC-Surface base CAPE (SBCAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CINH).
Quoting beell:


RUC-Surface base CAPE (SBCAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CINH).

Thanks!
Quoting beell:


RUC-Surface base CAPE (SBCAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CINH).


Who would have guessed? (keep it up beel)
Quoting jeffs713:

Gee willikers, the front isn't obvious on that map AT ALL.

(and nasty shear incoming for the TN valley...
I hope it is not to bad here..But I have a gut feeling it will be rough this afternoon in Middle TN.
Quoting Grothar:


Who would have guessed? (keep it up beel)


~~~~over my head~~~~:)
Quoting Jedkins01:


hunker down boys, hunker down!
The forecast keeps getting worse here...Looks like the shutters go up here too....
Oil -$2.30 $110.49


2 separate lows!!!
Quoting jitterboy:

Thanks!


And I may be wrong. Or the chart is old. Cross checking with the SPC Meso Page this would be Mixed Layer (MLCAPE) and Mixed Layer Convective Inhibition (MLCINH) sine there is not much left to the capping inversion at this point.


And gro & hydrus, since we are changing from surface based to mixed layer you are indeed 100% correct. It is over your head.
)

MLCAPE takes the bottom 100mb of atmosphere and mixes it all up and offers it to the storm updraft. If instability is shallow after this mixing is done, CAPE values will be lower.

SBCAPE computes instability from a surface parcel and may not paint a true picture.
Quoting beell:


And I may be wrong. Cross checking with the SPC Meso Page this would be Mixed Layer (MLCAPE) and Mixed Layer Convective Inhibition (MLCINH) sine there is not much left to the capping inversion at this point.


And gro, since we are changing from surface based to mixed layer you are indeed 100% correct. It is over your head.
)

MLCAPE takes the bottom 100mb of atmosphere and mixes it all up and offers it to the storm updraft. If instability is shallow after this mixing is done, CAPE values will be lower.

SBCAPE computes instability from a surface parcel and may not paint a true picture.


OH, Lordy.....over MY head....I said...LOLOL
76. IKE

Quoting twincomanche:
Oil -$2.30 $110.49
Just went to town. Gas has gone from $3.73.9 to $3.85.9 per gallon...regular unleaded.

Out at the interstate area it's $3.98.9 per gallon.
Light Crude vs. Natural Gas


Quoting DestinJeff:
So do we all agree to not compare 2011 maps to 2005 maps? That is in The Rules of the Road I think.

Gulf waters near Destin still shock to the system upon entry, but tolerable. The other 10 factors involved with getting a TC going are inconsequential.


I must take this opportunity to say...welcome back, and you were MISSED !!

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Quoting EYEStoSEA:


OH, Lordy.....over MY head....I said...LOLOL


Still pretty much over my head also EYES. But it sounds good! Sorry I left you off the response. Was trying to type/read/and feign interest in a conference call while dreaming of lunch.
Greetings,

Stay watchful, I don't think I have ever heard the torndado horns go off in my town.

It look like the loop current is getting ready to spin off.

cheers.

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

Quoting IKE:

Just went to town. Gas has gone from $3.73.9 to $3.85.9 per gallon...regular unleaded.

Out at the interstate area it's $3.98.9 per gallon.
I am in Northern Illinois right now and the price this morning was $4.079
Quoting beell:


Still pretty much over my head also EYES. But it sounds good! Sorry I left you off the response. Was trying to type/read/and feign interest in a conference call while dreaming of lunch.


Your just a "Multi-Tasker Plus" :)
Quoting 47n91w:


There were about 6 reports of tornadoes across the state yesterday. Damage surveys are taking place now. Here's a quick map of some of the storm reports from NWSO Minneapolis:

Orange dots are damaging winds
Blue dots are large hail
Green dots are flash flooding





I know there was some damage and some severe weather reports, but certainly not to warrant the PDS they had out yesterday. Here in Central Florida we've had a few severe weather events worse than that this year. But its good that it wasn't too bad! That high of a risk that far north and this early in the season sounded a bit fishy to me. The far northern plains get a lot more action in May and June typically. April usually isn't as big for them. Come the summer months the strongest upper level energy is usually in the northern plains and that combined with high temperatures, higher moisture and shearing leads to bigger events up there.
88. IKE

Quoting twincomanche:
I am in Northern Illinois right now and the price this morning was $4.079
:(
The latest situation report from Wisconsin Emergency Management:

DATE: April 11, 2011, 11:00 a.m.
TO: Governor Scott Walker
FROM: Mike Hinman, WEM Administrator
SUBJECT: Situation Report #1 on Severe Weather


Last night’s storms brought heavy rains, hail and suspected tornadoes to much of Wisconsin, with the Northeast and East Central regions reporting the heaviest damages to homes and businesses. Many county emergency management directors are assessing their local damages today. All tornado reports are tentative until confirmed by the National Weather Service.

Adams County:
Representatives from the county emergency management, police and sheriff’s departments are assessing damage from an unconfirmed tornado in the area of Big Flats/Cottonville:

From east to west: 11th Avenue, west to Cottonville dam


From north to south: Chicago Avenue to Cree Avenue


Calumet County:
Minor damage reported to around a dozen homes.

Forest County:
Reports of minor damage from a suspected tornado touchdown.

Kewaunee County:
County Trunk X is shut down for at least two or three days due to erosion caused by water crossing the road.

Culvert pipes are plugged in numerous areas causing erosion to multiple roads and embankments throughout the county. Water has pooled up to six feet in diameter on some roads.

Lincoln County:
A suspected tornado hit shortly after 6:00 pm last night. The County EOC is partially activated. An incident command post is set at the intersection of Taylor and Pierce Streets in Merrill. A perimeter has been set with the State Patrol at check points, and no one is being allowed entry at this time.

Local States of Emergency have been declared. State agencies on scene include WEM, DNR and State Patrol and the Red Cross.

Three serious injuries required helicopter transport, but no deaths were reported.

The damage path is from SW to NE with concentrations in a 2-3 mile (approximate) path along the north city limits. Gas and power have been shut off to the area. Six gas crews and 20-plus power crews are on the scene.

An initial assessment shows that seven businesses in the industrial park were destroyed and 20 to 25 homes were either destroyed or have sustained major damage. 25 to 50 other homes have sustained other damages. No insurance information is available at this time on the properties.

Congregate care is being run by Red Cross at AmericInn. No one stayed overnight, as displaced residents sought shelter with family and friends.

Merrill area public schools are closed for the day.

Damage assessments began in the county at 8:30 am, and an additional briefing is expected from the county at noon.

No additional resources have been requested for Lincoln at this point.

Marathon County:
Damages were reported from the Town of Holton along County FF to US 51. Reports of one house damaged/destroyed, shed and barns damaged in the Hamburg area on either side of FF. Reports of trees and power lines down in this area.

Outagamie County:
Outagamie is continuing their damage assessment, and is expecting to declare a disaster for City of Kaukauna and Outagamie County. Reports of pea-sized hail, heavy rain, trees down, power lines down. City of Kaukauna is reporting damaged homes.

Winnebago County:
Reports of trees down and roof and window damages to some homes. One business with major damage in Town of Menasha, with the roof and one wall collapsed. Downed power lines reported, but most power is on. County emergency management still taking reports of damages.

There are no additional requests for any assistance from the affected areas at this time.

###
Quoting Jedkins01:



I know there was some damage and some severe weather reports, but certainly not to warrant the PDS they had out yesterday. But its good that it wasn't too bad! That high of a risk that far north and this early in the season sounded a bit fishy to me. The far northern plains get a lot more action in May and June typically.


The preliminary damage assessment has rated the Adams County tornado as EF2. They're measuring the damage path right now but it seems there was a tornadic circulation on radar for 25 minutes.

Having said that, yes, perhaps you're right... in hindsight a PDS watch might have been a little over-the-top but I'll take some extra caution versus not enough. And we do seem to have a bit of a complacency problem in WI when it comes to severe weather.
Quoting 47n91w:


The preliminary damage assessment has rated the Adams County tornado as EF2. They're measuring the damage path right now but it seems there was a tornadic circulation on radar for 25 minutes.

Having said that, yes, perhaps you're right... in hindsight a PDS watch might have been a little over-the-top but I'll take some extra caution versus not enough. And we do seem to have a bit of a complacency problem in WI when it comes to severe weather.



I posted it on WU while it was occurring..........for sure an evil looking thing it appeared.
Quoting Jedkins01:



I know there was some damage and some severe weather reports, but certainly not to warrant the PDS they had out yesterday. Here in Central Florida we've had a few severe weather events worse than that this year. But its good that it wasn't too bad! That high of a risk that far north and this early in the season sounded a bit fishy to me. The far northern plains get a lot more action in May and June typically. April usually isn't as big for them. Come the summer months the strongest upper level energy is usually in the northern plains and that combined with high temperatures, higher moisture and shearing leads to bigger events up there.


Except in a year following a La Nina winter.
A shift in tornado activity is common.

Palm Sunday Outbreak in '65
Super Outbreak in '74
Both in early April
Both following La Nina
Both in the midwest/OH/TN Valleys
Quoting Neapolitan:
Here's a tsunami video slightly taken from a slight different viewpoint from one that was released earlier. Absolutely incredible destruction...with a bit of selfless bravery thrown at the end.



Heartbreaking to see those images. Not much warning I'm sure when those waves hit with them being so close to the epicenter.
Quoting hydrus:
The forecast keeps getting worse here...Looks like the shutters go up here too....


I'd say that might be a good idea.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN TN AND FAR NRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 128...

VALID 111737Z - 111830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 128 CONTINUES.

INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO EXISTS ACROSS SWRN TN AND FAR NRN
MS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA BY
18Z.

RECENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A WIND SHIFT ATTENDANT TO A
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SRN KY SWWD THROUGH
MIDDLE TN AND WSWWD INTO FAR SWRN TN...ALONG AND S OF MEM. ELY
SURFACE WINDS OVER WRN TN ARE ENHANCING LOW LEVEL SHEAR WITH THE MEM
WSR-88D VWP INDICATING SURFACE-1 KM VALUE CLOSE TO 40 KT AND 0-1 KM
SRH AROUND 375 M2/S2. AT 1730Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A
WELL ORGANIZED STORM OVER FAR EAST CENTRAL AR APPROACHING MEM AT 45
KT FROM THE WSW. AS THIS STORM REACHES THE MEM AREA...THE
AFOREMENTIONED ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS A GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR LOW LEVEL STORM ROTATION AND A TORNADO THREAT.

OTHERWISE...EFFECTIVE SRH 200-300 M2/S2 EXTENDS ACROSS WW 128.
LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED TSTMS EXTENDING FROM FAR WRN TN SSWWD THROUGH
ERN TN TO FAR NRN LA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST EWD INTO WW 128
POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO THREAT.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2011
Quoting TampaSpin:



I posted it on WU while it was occurring..........for sure an evil looking thing it appeared.


Sorry I missed your posting last night, I was a bit preoccupied :)

Looking at the video and images posted from Mapleton, IA as well as the other severe weather across the region the past few days, I'm really impressed there were no fatalities. I will take a moment to give kudos to the SPC and the local NWS offices for the lead times on watches and warnings. Our technology has come a long way and is likely preventing natural disasters from being worse.

Just as an example, I looked up the deadliest tornado recorded in Wisconsin. 117 people died and another 125 were injured on 12 June 1899 the western portion of the state. We can only speculate what the death toll would be, but a little warning time can go a long way.
Quoting DestinJeff:


Thanks. That is very nice of you. I don't post much at all during non-hurricane season, and we are getting clode enough now that I will be on more and more.

I enjoy everyone's input ... not just the serious stuff.
Yes...Good to see you posting jeff...,Now...Please praise the emblem of the generative power...
Quoting Grothar:

Visit msnbc.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy



I saw lots of nice tornado video last night from those storms Saturday. thanks Grothar for sharing that video!
Already 91 here in North Orlando! I see the GFS has backed off from the potential cool down this weekend in FL. It just makes sense considering how hot it has been lately. If anything I think it's just a matter of time before we start getting daily afternoon seabreeze storms. GFS is showing some chance coming up escpecially starting next Monday.
Good afternoon! It's a lovely mid 70's here in Chattanooga TN.






After looking at everything, my best guess would be the Northern Half of Mississippi and Northern Alabama is my main Target for Tornado's. If you look at everything above on the WV loop you can see a Double punch LOw's. The one moving out of the MidWest is most disturbing because a Dry Line is developing in front of the LOw into Mississippi. That will fill in later and begin to explode latter in my opinion. Little more warmer and humid temps in that area than in the North....Don't get me wrong any of the Box area is a threat as the Second Low Near Ohio is gonna be a problem into West Virginia and Pennsylvania as well.
new haven is only 53F BUT NEW YORK CITY IS 73F BECAUSE OF THE COLD WATER WITH SOUTH WINDS MAKE THE COAST LINE MUCH COOLER!!
104. beell
101. TampaSpin 6:16 PM GMT on April 11, 2011

a Dry Line is developing in front of the LOw into Mississippi


Way over here in Texas, we call that a cold front. No dryline today. We'll have to wait for high pressure behind the front to slide east with the western edge of moisture return delineating the dry line a from the warm, moist retun flow up the west side of surface high pressure.
Quoting beell:
101. TampaSpin 6:16 PM GMT on April 11, 2011

a Dry Line is developing in front of the LOw into Mississippi


Way over here in Texas, we call that a cold front. No dryline today. We'll have to wait for high pressure behind the front to slide east with the western edge of moisture return delineating the dry line a from the warm, moist retun flow up the west side of surface high pressure.



You can see the start if the line i am referring now starting up in Northern Louisiana.

Quoting beell:
101. TampaSpin 6:16 PM GMT on April 11, 2011

a Dry Line is developing in front of the LOw into Mississippi


Way over here in Texas, we call that a cold front. No dryline today. We'll have to wait for high pressure behind the front to slide east with the western edge of moisture return delineating the dry line a from the warm, moist retun flow up the west side of surface high pressure.

Those dry lines tend to be rather lackluster in convection, based on what I've seen. The ones that seem to have the most pop is when dry air is intruding in on moist air. Not sure about other parts of the country, but the cells that get their start on dry air intrusions like that tend to be some of the nastiest in N TX.



Dang another Quake in Japan....going on a bike ride. Everyone be safe.
The western edge of tornado watch box 129 ends about 10 miles from home, and the bad weather is advancing eastward. Tornado watches are unusual in my area, and tornadoes even more so. I have only seen two in my life, and one of those wasn't near my hometown- and I'm not as young as I used to be :) Please be careful, all!
Quoting TampaSpin:



Dang another Quake in Japan....going on a bike ride. Everyone be safe.
I feel for the people in Japan... they have to be a rattled wreck (in more ways than one).

I don't recall any recent great quake with this many aftershocks of this magnitude. A few 7s and 6s, ok, but this quake is ripping off 5s and 6s for aftershocks like they are nothing.
110. P451
Snow in Southern CA, Accumulating Hail in Newport Beach right to the Ocean.

--
NEWPORT BEACH (KTLA) -- Residents of Newport Beach were shocked when a surprise storm brought hail to the beach community -- so much hail that it looked like snow.

They say the skies were clear Friday night when, without warning, it started to hail! There was no rain, just a little thunder and lighnting when -- from no where the skies opened up and dumped the white stuff on the area -- even parts of the beach..
--

Gusty winds brought down a 100-foot tall eucalyptus tree in West Hollywood on Harper Avenue, just north of Fountain. Part of the tree landed on a parked car, and also took out a streetlight.

Warnings were posted on Interstate 5 along the Grapevine on Friday night for the icy conditions.

Low visibility due to snow caused as many as 7 vehicles to slam into each other as snow fell in the Grapevine Friday night.

The crash occurred on the northbound 5 Freeway at Frazier Mountain Park road around 8:30 p.m.

Snow levels dropped as low as 2,000 to 3,000 feet.
--
111. P451
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
new haven is only 53F BUT NEW YORK CITY IS 73F BECAUSE OF THE COLD WATER WITH SOUTH WINDS MAKE THE COAST LINE MUCH COOLER!!


Link to the site that produces those detailed images? Thanks.

112. P451
Quoting TampaSpin:



Dang another Quake in Japan....going on a bike ride. Everyone be safe.


Moreso the continued aftershocks continue in the 4.5M+ range for a month now. That's very impressive/worrisome. Their magnitude just has not dropped at all.

113. Jax82
114. beell
Quoting jeffs713:

Those dry lines tend to be rather lackluster in convection, based on what I've seen. The ones that seem to have the most pop is when dry air is intruding in on moist air. Not sure about other parts of the country, but the cells that get their start on dry air intrusions like that tend to be some of the nastiest in N TX.


Mainly due to surface heating that drives the lapse rates. Warm and hot (duh-repetitive)in the low levels, cooler air aloft. Leads to explosive development. Dry line works the same way except you get the added kick from a surface boundary to increase low-level shear.
The CPC update today showed that the Nino 3.4 region had risen to -0.6C below normal, just below the threshold for La Nina. It still has to rise a full degree celsius to achieve El Nino conditions, but it's only April. An El Nino could be in the making.
Quoting Jax82:
Awesomm pic thnx Jas82.
Quoting beell:


Mainly due to surface heating that drives the lapse rates. Warm and hot in the low levels, cooler air aloft. Leads to explosive development. Dry line works the same way except you get the added kick from a surface boundary to increase low-level shear.
I f you can, please explain to me why there are 2 squall lines forming in such close vicinity to one another..Doesnt one rob energy from the other?
118. beell

Oldie but a goodie:
Dryline Magic - Tim Marshall
Oil $-3.38 now $109.41. Hope springs eternally.
121. beell
Quoting hydrus:
I f you can, please explain to me why there are 2 squall lines forming in such close vicinity to one another..Doesnt one rob energy from the other?




Which two lines, hydrus?

Some of it is prefrontal. Some of it is tied to the front, and some of it up in MO is elevated.
Quoting beell:




Which two lines, hydrus?

Some of it is prefrontal. Some of it is tied to the front, and some of it up in MO is elevated.
It looked like 2 on the WV...
Good afternoon, latest Japan earthquake was 222 miles east of Fukushima.



USGSSiteLink
124. beell
Quoting hydrus:
It looked like 2 on the WV...


ok, cool. I get to artfully dodge that question, lol.
:-0

But one can rob or block the inflow to the other for sure.
125. Jax82
Quoting twincomanche:
Oil $-3.38 now $109.41. Hope springs eternally.


Quoting Jax82:


Good info.
Quoting beell:

Oldie but a goodie:
Dryline Magic - Tim Marshall

Good article - thanks
A couple images coming in from Adams County, WI where some preliminary EF2 damage was found:

*using Firefox so I apologize if any of the pictures cause blog problems for IE





And some hail damage from La Crosse, WI:



19 more days and I'll begin to get interested in the tropics.
Hey guys! Can anyone tell me when NOAA issues their predictions for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasons?

Thanks!
Lookie here, some good news.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0414
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0244 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KY....SWRN VA...MUCH OF WV...SERN OH...WRN MD
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 129...

VALID 111944Z - 112045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 129 CONTINUES.

THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS WW 129 MAY NEED TO BE
CANCELLED EARLY.

AT 19Z...MESOSCALE ANALYSES SHOWED A PRE-FRONTAL WIND SHIFT
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL PA SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL WV TO ERN KY AND INTO
MIDDLE TN. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AGITATED CU OVER WRN
WV FROM 10 ESE HTS TO 25 SSW PKB. REGIONAL RADARS SHOWED AN
INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY WITH THIS CONVECTION...THOUGH ACTIVITY IS
NOT DEEP ENOUGH YET FOR MUCH LIGHTNING PRODUCTION PER LATEST
LIGHTNING DATA. DESPITE STRONG SURFACE HEATING WITHIN WW 129...WEAK
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY WITH CURRENT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. ANY TSTMS THAT
CAN FORM ON THE WIND SHIFT WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A STRONG
WIND GUST GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
HOWEVER...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED SURFACE BASED STORMS APPEARS
TO BE WANING GIVEN A LACK OF GREATER DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT
AND THE WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2011
Looking like an El-Nino could come into play by the end of the hurricane but it should be very weak or stay neutral. Time will tell as the SST off South America continue to warm at a good rate.
Quoting cyclonekid:
Hey guys! Can anyone tell me when NOAA issues their predictions for the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific Hurricane Seasons?

Thanks!

They will release it on May 19.
surprised how conditions somewhat stabilized along greater front... but i'm sensing that this evening things might get messy in the deep south. i have no data to support his though, just eying the satellites... ;)
Could it be a rare moment of candor and honesty?

Japan may raise nuke accident severity level to highest 7 from 5

The Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan released a preliminary calculation Monday saying that the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant had been releasing up to 10,000 terabecquerels of radioactive materials per hour at some point after a massive quake and tsunami hit northeastern Japan on March 11.

The disclosure prompted the government to consider raising the accident's severity level to 7, the worst on an international scale, from the current 5, government sources said. The level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale has only been applied to the 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe.

The current provisional evaluation of 5 is at the same level as the Three Mile Island accident in the United States in 1979.

According to an evaluation by the INES, level 7 accidents correspond with a release into the external environment radioactive materials equal to more than tens of thousands terabecquerels of radioactive iodine 131. One terabecquerel equals 1 trillion becquerels.

Haruki Madarame, chairman of the commission, which is a government panel, said it has estimated that the release of 10,000 terabecquerels of radioactive materials per hour continued for several hours.

Kyodo News Article...

10,000 terabecquerels per hour is, of course, 10,000,000,000,000,000 (10 quadrillion) becquerels per hour. That's roughly equivalent to 270 billion millieseverts per hour (assuming a person could somehow absorb every bit of radiation being released when the reactor was at maximum leakage), which is roughly equivalent to 15 trillion dental X-rays per second over the course of several hours.

...and all this while TEPCO and Japan swore there was no danger, and that things were under control.

(And I admit my on-the-fly calculations may be off by a lot, even an order or two of magnitude. But my point, I think, still stands.)
First one I have seen this afternoon.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
402 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN HICKMAN COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
PERRY COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
WESTERN LEWIS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
NORTHERN WAYNE COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...
SOUTHERN HUMPHREYS COUNTY IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...

* UNTIL 445 PM CDT

* AT 359 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 60 MPH. THE STORM WAS NEAR PARSONS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
140. beell
Quoting Minnemike:
surprised how conditions somewhat stabilized along greater front... but i'm sensing that this evening things might get messy in the deep south. i have no data to support his though, just eying the satellites... ;)


Stealing a clue from SQUAWK's post (133.)

WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LIMITED THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY WITH CURRENT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG

It's about all I can see holding things from getting more active.

500mb temps are only about -10° C but there are some colder mid-level temps on the way. May be a little while longer before anything gets going.

There is a new Mesoscale Discussion 0415 that has been published but I get a page error when I try to access the text.

6 to 6.5° C/km or less over most of the area. A little higher near the coast.

7.5° C/km is pretty fair. 7° C/km is kinda iffy


141. IKE
  • Oil-1.37Price/barrel$108.93
Quoting Neapolitan:
Could it be a rare moment of candor and honesty?

Japan may raise nuke accident severity level to highest 7 from 5

The Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan released a preliminary calculation Monday saying that the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant had been releasing up to 10,000 terabecquerels of radioactive materials per hour at some point after a massive quake and tsunami hit northeastern Japan on March 11.

The disclosure prompted the government to consider raising the accident's severity level to 7, the worst on an international scale, from the current 5, government sources said. The level 7 on the International Nuclear Event Scale has only been applied to the 1986 Chernobyl catastrophe.

The current provisional evaluation of 5 is at the same level as the Three Mile Island accident in the United States in 1979.

According to an evaluation by the INES, level 7 accidents correspond with a release into the external environment radioactive materials equal to more than tens of thousands terabecquerels of radioactive iodine 131. One terabecquerel equals 1 trillion becquerels.

Haruki Madarame, chairman of the commission, which is a government panel, said it has estimated that the release of 10,000 terabecquerels of radioactive materials per hour continued for several hours.

Kyodo News Article...

10,000 terabecquerels per hour is, of course, 10,000,000,000,000,000 (10 quadrillion) becquerels per hour. That's roughly equivalent to 270 billion millieseverts per hour (assuming a person could somehow absorb every bit of radiation being released when the reactor was at maximum leakage), which is roughly equivalent to 15 trillion dental X-rays per second over the course of several hours.

...and all this while TEPCO and Japan swore there was no danger, and that things were under control.

(And I admit my on-the-fly calculations may be off by a lot, even an order or two of magnitude. But my point, I think, still stands.)

Those numbers (15 trillion dental..etc etc) are enough to make a man waver in his Nuclear beliefs....

I wish you would'nt DO that, Nea.
I have quite enough to worry about, already.
New Tornado Watch for Eastern Mississippi and Western Alabama. Atmosphere is very unstable and the SPC says supercells are possible in the next few hours.
Here is a cut & paste from Florida Trend:

State Farm gets 18.8% rate hike

Regulators have approved an average rate hike of 18.8 percent for Florida homeowners covered by State Farm, according to state documents filed Friday. The higher rates, which are less than the 28 percent boost State Farm sought, will take effect July 1 for new business and beginning July 15 for renewals. Separately, Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty approved a 62 percent increase for State Farm's commercial residential policies, which cover homes that are owned by a person or business entity and rented to others. While the rate increase was significantly less than it asked for, State Farm isn't talking about pulling out of Florida, as it did the last time a major rate boost was turned down in its entirety. The rate approval "is an important step for State Farm Florida to remain viable in this marketplace," company spokesman Michael Grimes said. "We'll continue to work with regulators and legislators to encourage market reform." Florida has been spared a major hurricane for more than five years. But State Farm, the largest private insurer in Florida, maintains that it needs to boost premiums for its 632,000 policyholders because of rising costs unrelated to hurricanes. [Source: St. Petersburg Times]

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
146. MCD related to the new watch.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND MIDDLE TN...MS...AND AL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 128...

VALID 112056Z - 112130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 128 CONTINUES.

A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED SOON TO THE EAST THROUGH
SOUTHEAST OF WW 128.

STRONGER INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM SRN MS INTO SWRN-WRN AL WITH
MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
50-60 KT AND SRH VALUES 100-200 M2/S2 ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE PRIMARY THREATS. 18Z EXPERIMENTAL HRRR INDICATED STORMS
DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SRN MS BETWEEN 21-22Z WITHIN THIS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AS STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS EWD THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE MID SOUTH.

FARTHER N...LOCALIZED STRONGER WIND GUSTS REMAIN A POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE VALID PORTION OF WW 128...ATTENDANT TO SEVERAL LINE SEGMENTS
MOVING ENEWD AT 40-45 KT THROUGH WRN TN AND NRN MS.

..PETERS.. 04/11/2011
Must of caught that MCD at the right moment.

bl,
Thanks for sharing your severe weather knowledge with everyone on the main blog.
:)
150. beell
Better over AR in association with the mid-level low. 7.5° C/km moving ENE.

Quoting Jax82:




That picture speaks a thousand words in regards to taxes. Look at the states in red.
National Weather Service meteorologists were conducting storm
surveys on the most significant damage from last nights storms. So
far three tornadoes have been confirmed. This information is
preliminary and more information will be disseminated when all
the survey teams return later tonight.

An EF1 tornado was confirmed in Johnson County... approximately 2
miles north-northwest of Rio Vista. Wind speeds were estimated to
be 100 to 110 mph. Five homes were damaged in this tornado. One
home sustained heavy damage.

Another EF1 tornado was confirmed in Johnson County... just west of
Alvarado. The winds with this tornado were around 90 mph.

A third EF1 tornado was confirmed in Kaufman County... on the north
side of Forney. This tornado was about 100 yards wide and
approximately 400 to 500 yards in length. The winds with this
tornado were approximately 100 mph.

It has also been determined that straight line wind damage occurred
in Bosque County and Ellis County. The winds that caused the
damage in Waxahachie were determined to be around 80 mph.

The damage in Hunt County is still being surveyed and the
information will be provided later.




Gonna be a kicker overnight here in Georgia.
155. beell
Quoting Barefootontherocks:
Must of caught that MCD at the right moment.

bl,
Thanks for sharing your severe weather knowledge with everyone on the main blog.
:)


Thanks,bf.
You must have caught the "right" server cuz I am still getting the error. As you know, this has been a chronic problem for at least a month.

I did send a couple e-mails to the SPC Web Feedback Page a few days ago but I haz got no backfeed!
)
Quoting hydrus:
The forecast keeps getting worse here...Looks like the shutters go up here too....


this is true, but I find it kinda funny that moderate risks issued today and yesterday aren't nearly as wide spread as the severe weather last week in the deep south or the severe weather here in Florida a couple weeks back, or the severe weather in Iowa. So far the most wide spread damage has occurred with a "slight risk".

I mean I'm not saying there isn't some very nasty severe weather today or yesterday in the Moderate risk areas, its just not as widespread as expected.

Also, I'm not trying to bash the SPC. Forecasting severe events isn't very easy. There is so much involved that comes into play. Many times storm chasers are surprised by outbreaks that turn out worse than expected, as well as disappointed by particularly higher risk forecasts that that don't turn out nearly as bad as expected. Forecasting of these events has still improved though that's for sure.
Weather Update for Puerto Rico
Link

I heart is out for the tornado victims
Quoting GainesvilleGator:
Here is a cut & paste from Florida Trend:

State Farm gets 18.8% rate hike

Regulators have approved an average rate hike of 18.8 percent for Florida homeowners covered by State Farm, according to state documents filed Friday. The higher rates, which are less than the 28 percent boost State Farm sought, will take effect July 1 for new business and beginning July 15 for renewals. Separately, Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty approved a 62 percent increase for State Farm's commercial residential policies, which cover homes that are owned by a person or business entity and rented to others. While the rate increase was significantly less than it asked for, State Farm isn't talking about pulling out of Florida, as it did the last time a major rate boost was turned down in its entirety. The rate approval "is an important step for State Farm Florida to remain viable in this marketplace," company spokesman Michael Grimes said. "We'll continue to work with regulators and legislators to encourage market reform." Florida has been spared a major hurricane for more than five years. But State Farm, the largest private insurer in Florida, maintains that it needs to boost premiums for its 632,000 policyholders because of rising costs unrelated to hurricanes. [Source: St. Petersburg Times]

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------

Oh, thank God. I was beginning to worry; State Farm only earned $1.8 billion in profit last year. That's not much more than double what it netted in 2009. Do you realize that's a profit of just $4.9 million per day? Why, that's nowhere close to, say, ExxonMobil's $100 million a day in profit.

I for one am so happy State Farm is being allowed to raise premiums for its captive consumers happy customers in Florida.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
Those super-cells are coming right at us and growing stronger..thank you for your satellite and radar posts. The cells show up pretty good, even way out here...
Quoting Michfan:


That picture speaks a thousand words in regards to taxes. Look at the states in red.

Yeah, how dare those idiotic Californians try to keep their air breathable! Tax-happy Morons!

:-\
153. DARPAsockpup,
That's interesting news. Saw the wind reports and wondered what would come of it. The Tor watch last eve was in OK and T-storm watch in TX but those cells in NCentral TX looked meanest. Only one wind report here in OK sounded like it may have been from tornado.

Quoting beell:


Thanks,bf.
You must have caught the "right" server cuz I am still getting the error. As you know, this has been a chronic problem for at least a month.

I did send a couple e-mails to the SPC Web Feedback Page a few days ago but I haz got no backfeed!
)


Oh, bl.
Got there thru your link. The page was all messed up but readable enough to know where to click.
:)

Gotta fly out to the country.
Have a good eve, weather watchers.
I just don't see us coming straight out of this La nina and quickly going into El nino like some people want to belive.I belive we'll start to see El nino conditions for December maybe but not THIS early.Sorry guys but this ain't no 2010.
163. beell
@156.

It is a little subjective, Jed, but it is not always tied to quantity. A couple of EF-3's along with a higher forecaster confidence will fill the bill.

Being a subjective assesment, you are sure entitled to an opinion!
:-)

The SPC's definition:

A MDT risk implies a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms, and in most situations, greater magnitude of severe weather and greater forecaster confidence compared to a SLGT risk. A MDT risk is usually reserved for days with substantial severe storm coverage, or an enhanced chance for a significant severe storm outbreak. Typical MDT risk days include multiple tornadic supercells with very large hail, or intense squall lines with widespread damaging winds.
SPC Product Information
164. beell
Oh, bl.
Got there thru your link. The page was all messed up but readable enough to know where to click.
:)


Fly right, bf. Even tried the "go to the last MCD and step forward" trick. No joy.
Working ok, now.
Later.
By the way I also hate when idiots say that just becuase we're not going to be in a La nina pattern we'll see fewer storms.Not true at all.Some nutreal years have proven to be more active,and costly than a La nina year.....2008/05 ring a bell anyone?.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yeah, how dare those idiotic Californians try to keep their air breathable! Tax-happy Morons!

:-\


Actually, California better start trying to make the air a lot more breathable, because the air here in Florida is exceedingly cleaner, and we aren't in red.


BTW, I can't imagine taxing fuel is really gonna do a whole lot of good towards moving forward with alternative energy. Sounds to me like just another way the government can squeeze regular Americans and make profit. If I see proof its being used towards positive things like to help fund scientific research or development of cleaner and better alternative energy technologies, then I won't be bothered by it. There has to be sacrifice to move forward and improve, money doesn't grow on trees.
Quoting beell:
@156.

It is a little subjective, Jed, but it is not always tied to quantity. A couple of EF-3's along with a higher forecaster confidence will fill the bill.

Being a subjective assesment, you are sure entitled to an opinion!
:-)

The SPC's definition:

A MDT risk implies a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms, and in most situations, greater magnitude of severe weather and greater forecaster confidence compared to a SLGT risk. A MDT risk is usually reserved for days with substantial severe storm coverage, or an enhanced chance for a significant severe storm outbreak. Typical MDT risk days include multiple tornadic supercells with very large hail, or intense squall lines with widespread damaging winds.
SPC Product Information


True, its not so much the severe weather the last 2 days that doesn't warrant a Moderate risk that is the forecast bust. Its more of the severe weather events in the last few weeks including here in Central Florida as well as the deep South that definitely fit the Moderate risk at times even though they were labeled slight risk events.

But of course as a weather student, I am just starting to get hit hard by how complex this science is, so I appreciate what it takes to be a forecaster and I'm not bringing it up to criticize the SPC. I am just a person who observes and remembers lots of data about weather that most people don't care about lol. So I like to review actual weather and weather patterns compared to the forecast, including my own. That being said my realization of how much my forecasting fails helps me push harder to understand more about meteorology as I take harder classes.
Based loosely on what Neo posted earlier at 137.
We greatly appreciate this information and the research that acquires it.

All this info is very interesting but seems to mean nothing to the average sentient life form in the streets, as although we have a bit of an idea most people don't understand these terms and figures.

What I would suggest, {to the info suppliers,} is to state how long you would live if you were exposed to this kind of radiation for an hour, which is what most people can easily understand.

Now for something that is easy to grasp!The exclusion zone thing. The European news stated tonight that they might jack it out to 40 kilometer radius! They must really be worried.

According to an exclusion zone of 30 Kilometer radius, this takes out of the land area of Japan a total of 2827 square kilometers and not only that most of this is very good agricultural land in a country that doesn't have a surplus of it!!

Thanks for all the info. on tornadoes, amazing stuff for all of us who have never seen one.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Actually, California better start trying to make the air a lot more breathable, because the air here in Florida is exceedingly cleaner, and we aren't in red.


BTW, I can't imagine taxing fuel is really gonna do a whole lot of good towards moving forward with alternative energy. Sounds to me like just another way the government can squeeze regular Americans and make profit. If I see proof its being used towards positive things like to help fund scientific research or development of cleaner and better alternative energy technologies, then I won't be bothered by it as much.


Well, If you compare weather patterns in Florida and California you would see differently. Air in CA is very still and desert-like most of the time. The famous smog in LA just builds up because the air does not move all summer. Except for the occasional early Santa Ana that fans the fires. Overall, CA is doing the best they can to keep it as clean as possible. If you experience true smog, you would join the fight. Better yet, go to China.
Also, California learned a very hard lesson in gold mining using Mercury in the mines. Because of that you still can't eat fish out of most rivers in CA.
170. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:


True, its not so much the severe weather the last 2 days that doesn't warrant a Moderate risk that is the forecast bust. Its more of the severe weather events in the last few weeks including here in Central Florida as well as the deep South that definitely fit the Moderate risk at times even though they were labeled slight risk events.

But of course as a weather student, I am just starting to get hit hard by how complex this science is, so I appreciate what it takes to be a forecaster and I'm not bringing it up to criticize the SPC. I am just a person who observes and remembers lots of data about weather that most people don't care about lol. So I like to review actual weather and weather patterns compared to the forecast, including my own. That being said my realization of how much my forecasting fails helps me push harder to understand more about meteorology as I take harder classes.


There is truth to what you are saying. If you (and a couple of other Floridians) think this should have been a moderate risk and deemed "historically significant"...



Then this surely was a High risk-it never made it past "MDT".



Go figure.

*These are the SPC verification graphics based on the 06Z DAY 1 and the preliminary storm reports received by 06Z the following day.
severe weather coming soon the duck was at my house today!!
The word idiot seems to used rather loosely here this afternoon.
Here at my home in SCentral Ms, the line just pasted over us. Received a good pollen rinseing rain...no hail,some wind ( some limbs down, no trees down)....all in all...we're OTAY ! Hope others are as fortunate.
Quoting jasonweatherman2010:
severe weather coming soon the duck was at my house today!!
so seeing ducks means severe
Quoting beell:


There is truth to what you are saying. If you (and a couple of other Floridians) think this should have been a moderate risk and deemed "historically significant"...



Then this surely was a High risk-it never made it past "MDT".



Go figure.

*These are the SPC verification graphics based on the 06Z DAY 1 and the preliminary storm reports received by 06Z the following day.

Quoting beell:


There is truth to what you are saying. If you (and a couple of other Floridians) think this should have been a moderate risk and deemed "historically significant"...



Then this surely was a High risk-it never made it past "MDT".



Go figure.

*These are the SPC verification graphics based on the 06Z DAY 1 and the preliminary storm reports received by 06Z the following day.


Actually, the severe event the day before on Wednesday should have been the one that was Moderate in Central Florida. The one here on Thursday was significant in my area and was very concentrated in mostly 3 counties. However, I don't think that one should have been Moderate because it wasn't widespread enough despite that it was very bad here in Pinellas County. Also, I wasn't the person that said it was historic. It was not a historic outbreak. It was locally very nasty, but far from historic.

Additionally, there is something very fishy about those severe reports. The NWS has now confirmed at least 9 tornadoes in Just Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties. An additional 3 possible tornadoes are still being surveyed. That being said, why does the SPC show only 6 tornado reports when at least 9 tornadoes were confirmed by the NWS in just 2 counties including me? Who knows...


I woulds agree though, although it was a significant severe weather event in Tampa Bay. It didn't stretch very far beyond Tampa Bay and so it wasn't widespread enough to be Moderate. But on the other hand, the SPC sometimes does highlight very small areas in a Moderate risk right? If that's the case, the Tampa Bay area was certainly hit hard enough to be more significant than slight risk. But as I said, it still wasn't historic.

To comment on the second event you showed there, that was by far a high risk of severe. What is even more interesting is the very widespread reports in the Carolinas that weren't in any risk at all that day! What a crazy day indeed for the South.
Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually, the severe event the day before should have been the one that was Moderate in Central Florida. The one here on Thursday was significant in my area and was very concentrated in mostly 3 counties. However, I don't think that one should have been Moderate because it wasn't widespread enough despite that it was very bad here in Pinellas County. However I wasn't the person that said it was historic. It was not a historic outbreak. It was locally very nasty, but far from historic.

However, there is something very fishy about those severe reports. The NWS has confirmed at least 9 tornadoes in Just Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties. An additional 3 possible tornadoes are still being surveyed. That being said, why does the SPC show only 6 tornado reports when at least 9 tornadoes were confirmed by the NWS in just 2 counties including.


I woulds agree though, although it was a significant severe weather event in Tampa Bay. It didn't stretch very far beyond Tampa Bay and so it wasn't widespread enough to be Moderate. But then again, the SPC sometimes does highlight very small areas in a Moderate risk right? If that's the case, the Tampa Bay area was certainly hit hard enough to be more significant than slight risk. But as I said, it still wasn't historic.

To comment on the second event you showed there, that was by far a high risk of severe. What is even more interesting is the very widespread reports in the Carolinas that weren't in any risk at all that day! What a crazy day indeed for the South.
sometimes things don't work out as expected other times it proves to be more than forecasted in the end only thing that matters is word got out that something is coming how big or small is anyones guess
Quoting Hoff511:


Well, If you compare weather patterns in Florida and California you would see differently. Air in CA is very still and desert-like most of the time. The famous smog in LA just builds up because the air does not move all summer. Except for the occasional early Santa Ana that fans the fires. Overall, CA is doing the best they can to keep it as clean as possible. If you experience true smog, you would join the fight. Better yet, go to China.
Also, California learned a very hard lesson in gold mining using Mercury in the mines. Because of that you still can't eat fish out of most rivers in CA.


That is true.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so seeing ducks means severe
everytime severe weather coming here the duck come to get food in my yard i live next to the river!!
179. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually, the severe event the day before should have been the one that was Moderate in Central Florida. The one here on Thursday was significant in my area and was very concentrated in mostly 3 counties. However, I don't think that one should have been Moderate because it wasn't widespread enough despite that it was very bad here in Pinellas County. However I wasn't the person that said it was historic. It was not a historic outbreak. It was locally very nasty, but far from historic.

However, there is something very fishy about those severe reports. The NWS has confirmed at least 9 tornadoes in Just Pinellas and Hillsborough Counties. An additional 3 possible tornadoes are still being surveyed. That being said, why does the SPC show only 6 tornado reports when at least 9 tornadoes were confirmed by the NWS in just 2 counties including.


I woulds agree though, although it was a significant severe weather event in Tampa Bay. It didn't stretch very far beyond Tampa Bay and so it wasn't widespread enough to be Moderate. But then again, the SPC sometimes does highlight very small areas in a Moderate risk right? If that's the case, the Tampa Bay area was certainly hit hard enough to be more significant than slight risk. But as I said, it still wasn't historic.

To comment on the second event you showed there, that was by far a high risk of severe. What is even more interesting is the very widespread reports in the Carolinas that weren't in any risk at all that day! What a crazy day indeed for the South.


The verification graphics reflect reports received by 06Z the following day (i think!). Always subject to change with late reports and subsequent damage surveys.

And the one from the 30th since I got the date wrong.

weekly sst anomaly
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sometimes things don't work out as expected other times it proves to be more than forecasted in the end only thing that matters is word got out that something is coming how big or small is anyones guess


Oh I understand, I am just discussing this stuff because I like to haha, as I said earlier, I am not knocking the SPC. As I have experienced in school meteorology is a very, very complicated science, and I'm only just below halfway through the bachelors degree. A lot of these guys involved in the forecasts have gone way beyond into the graduate level. I very much appreciate what it takes to do this job and they do a great job considering how complicated the weather is. Whoever made computer models for weather are geniuses because modeling the weather is probably the hardest thing you could ever design a computer to predict.
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Here at my home in SCentral Ms, the line just pasted over us. Received a good pollen rinseing rain...no hail,some wind ( some limbs down, no trees down)....all in all...we're OTAY ! Hope others are as fortunate.
Where you at? My company has a plant in Grenada.
Quoting beell:


The verification graphics reflect reports received by 06Z the following day (i think!). Always subject to change with late reports and subsequent damage surveys.

And the one from the 30th since I got the date wrong.



Alright, yeah those were the preliminary reports so that's why it only shows 6 tornado reports on the 31st when at least 9 separate tornadoes touched down in the Tampa Bay area with possibly 3 more that may be added to the list. That's a lot of tornadoes in a concentrated area. Yeah the date for the tornado event in Tampa Bay was the 31st(thursday) you got that right. And the one you just posted here was from the day before (wednesday the 30th).

It almost makes me wonder if just less people report severe weather to the NWS here in this part Florida sometimes. Is it possible that although 9 tornadoes touched down in the area all hitting areas with population, only 6 reports actually came in? I have sometimes heard of severe weather around here that doesn't show up on the SPC report list. I don't know I could be wrong here, just a thought.
Where's the black radar Keeper? People are always watching ...
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Where's the black radar Keeper? People are always watching ...


Quoting twincomanche:
The word idiot seems to used rather loosely here this afternoon.
I just hate when forecasters underestimate a season just becuase it's going to look like it's nutreal or an El nino year.I'm sure people who were affected by the storms of 05/08 wouldn't give a damn becuase they felt the pain.The same thing can also be said for el nino years.2004/1992 are good exsamples.For people who were affected by Andrew,Charley,Frances,Ivan,and Jeanne.Oh let's not forget Gaston,and Alex wouldn't give a care if you said that that so,and so year was such and such.Yeah sure 2010 was active but people in america will FORGET IT!.Becuase not many in the United States were affected.However if their's more strikes on the U.S costline this year than last.I'm sure America won't be forgetting about 2011 anytime soon...People gotta remember.It's all about where the storms go and who they affect.Not how freaking active a season is.2010 was active blah blah.But people who weren't affected won't remember it.
Oh shoot !! sorry, Twin... I'm south of 1-20 Brandon Ms
Quoting twincomanche:
Where you at? My company has a plant in Grenada.


Grenada is about 125 mi north of me...:)
mainly severe T' storms no spinners yet not till ya see the whites of there eyes anywayand right now no white on radar sigs
Quoting EYEStoSEA:
Oh shoot !! sorry, Twin... I'm south of 1-20 Brandon Ms
Thnx.
Quoting TomTaylor:
weekly sst anomaly
Ouch! quite nasty for the Gulf,and around Florida/Bahamas area.If atmospheric conditions fall into place WATCH OUT!!!!.
194. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:


Alright, yeah those were the preliminary reports so that's why it only shows 6 tornado reports on the 31st when at least 9 separate tornadoes touched down in the Tampa Bay area with possibly 3 more that may be added to the list. That's a lot of tornadoes in a concentrated area. Yeah the date for the tornado event in Tampa Bay was the 31st(thursday) you got that right. And the one you just posted here was from the day before (wednesday the 30th).

It almost makes me wonder if just less people report severe weather to the NWS here in this part Florida sometimes. Is it possible that although 9 tornadoes touched down in the area all hitting areas with population, only 6 reports actually came in? I have sometimes heard of severe weather around here that doesn't show up on the SPC report list. I don't know I could be wrong here, just a thought.


Appreciate the input, Jed.

I have posted the following a couple of times but at the risk of boring the rest of the blog I'll post it again. Quality control of storm reports is now in the hands of the user for the most part.

If you and I report the same event, it may not get "deduplicated" or filtered out in the final tally.

Please note: On March 8, 2011, the proximity space/time rule is no longer being utilized to de-duplicate events and minimal filtering is now applied to the decoded reports. All comments/remarks in the LSRs are captured on the raw files and the users can decide, for their own purposes, the best way to remove duplicate reports from the LSR's.

NWS Local Storm Reports
Quoting jeffs713:

Those dry lines tend to be rather lackluster in convection, based on what I've seen. The ones that seem to have the most pop is when dry air is intruding in on moist air. Not sure about other parts of the country, but the cells that get their start on dry air intrusions like that tend to be some of the nastiest in N TX.


There is pretty much no such thing as a dry line in Florida :) lol
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
mainly severe T' storms no spinners yet not till ya see the whites of there eyes anywayand right now no white on radar sigs


I was just watching that purple triangle on WU Radar west of Tuscaloosa.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
608 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL GREENE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
EAST CENTRAL PICKENS COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...
SOUTHERN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 645 PM CDT

* AT 606 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR BENEVOLA...OR 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CARROLLTON...
AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHPORT...TUSCALOOSA...HOLT...JENA...COKER...BRY ANT DENNY
STADIUM...MCFARLAND MALL...UNIVERSITY MALL...DEERLICK CREEK
CAMPGROUNDS AND LAKE WILDWOOD.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 62 THROUGH 89...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.
Quoting beell:


Appreciate the input, Jed.

I have posted the following a couple of times but at the risk of boring the rest of the blog I'll post it again. Quality control of storm reports is now in the hands of the user for the most part.

If you and I report the same event, it may not get "deduplicated" or filtered out in the final tally.

Please note: On March 8, 2011, the proximity space/time rule is no longer being utilized to de-duplicate events and minimal filtering is now applied to the decoded reports. All comments/remarks in the LSRs are captured on the raw files and the users can decide, for their own purposes, the best way to remove duplicate reports from the LSR's.

NWS Local Storm Reports


That's odd that I never noticed it said that on the page, now I know. It does mention that the storm reports page is all preliminary. So that's why sometimes high tornado reports get narrowed down to just a few actual confirmed tornadoes by the NWS later, while like the event around here a couple weeks ago, there were actually more tornadoes confirmed by the NWS then reported by the public in the preliminary results at the SPC. It is weird that the public seems to lack in severe weather reporting around here. Maybe its because severe weather occurs locally every day in the wet season here without tornado watch boxes, sirens, severe weather risk highlights, or storm chasing so people don't make as big of a deal, they just think of it as typical afternoon storms. Whereas in many states in the plains or the south. It may be very long time before severe weather then all of the sudden there is an explosion of severe weather from storm systems all at once so it prompts more people there to report than here? I'm just blabbing here pretty much, but it does make me wonder.

I am not one to talk though, I have had severe weather damage in my neighborhood and very close to my house several times including wind damage to trees and fencing in my yard, yet Ive never reported any of it to the SPC. Maybe its a Florida thing to not report as much, lol.
Oil down to $108.95 yippee!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


The severe weather risk is looking nastier and nastier for Alabama while it looks to be decreasing in areas north of there based on convective trends on radar.

Watch out Birmingham, severe cells are headed your way.
URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA ZONES EXCEPT DIXIE...TAYLOR
AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES DUE TO LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COMBINED WITH
HIGH DISPERSIONS AND 2O FT WINDS...

.DISCUSSION...DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. RED FLAG CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INLAND
SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING BELOW 35 PERCENT FOR A
FEW HOURS AND HIGH DISPERSIONS. FOR WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER DRY DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
APPROACH CRITICAL RED FLAG LEVELS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
GEORGIA AND DROP WELL BELOW 35 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHWEST FLORIDA
THROUGH THIS TIME. INTERESTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES.

FLZ007>019-026-027-108-112-114-115-118-127-121100 -
/O.NEW.KTAE.FW.A.0028.110412T1900Z-110412T2300Z/
INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-
CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-
MADISON-LIBERTY-INLAND WAKULLA-SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-
COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-
325 PM EDT MON APR 11 2011 /225 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011/

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF HIGH DISPERSIONS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW
35 PERCENT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE. LISTEN FOR LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE RED FLAG
WARNINGS.

Storms have recently rapidly popped in Eastern PA, areas from that line east need to watch closely as well.
A two-fer: the first on the west coast, the second and larger just a few dozen miles from Tokyo (closing Narita airport):

Magnitude 5.2
Date-Time

Monday, April 11, 2011 at 22:26:18 UTC
Tuesday, April 12, 2011 at 07:26:18 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 36.905N, 138.280E
Depth 5.7 km (3.5 miles)
Region EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 30 km (18 miles) NNE of Nagano, Honshu, Japan
80 km (49 miles) NNE of Matsumoto, Honshu, Japan
91 km (56 miles) NW of Maebashi, Honshu, Japan
190 km (118 miles) NW of TOKYO, Japan
Location Uncertainty horizontal /- 15.8 km (9.8 miles); depth /- 5.2 km (3.2 miles)
Parameters NST=185, Nph=194, Dmin=40.1 km, Rmss=0.92 sec, Gp= 83,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=8

----------------------------------------------

Magnitude 6.4
Date-Time

Monday, April 11, 2011 at 23:08:16 UTC
Tuesday, April 12, 2011 at 08:08:16 AM at epicenter

Location 35.406N, 140.542E
Depth 13.1 km (8.1 miles)
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances

77 km (48 miles) ESE (112) from TOKYO, Japan
107 km (66 miles) S (177) from Mito, Honshu, Japan
173 km (107 miles) SE (129) from Maebashi, Honshu, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal /- 14.7 km (9.1 miles); depth /- 6 km (3.7 miles)
Parameters NST=280, Nph=282, Dmin=246 km, Rmss=1.19 sec, Gp= 50,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
208. beell
Quoting Jedkins01:


That's odd that I never noticed it said that on the page, now I know. It does mention that the storm reports page is all preliminary. So that's why sometimes high tornado reports get narrowed down to just a few actual confirmed tornadoes by the NWS later, while like the event around here a couple weeks ago, there were actually more tornadoes confirmed by the NWS then reported by the public in the preliminary results at the SPC. It is weird that the public seems to lack in severe weather reporting around here. Maybe its because severe weather occurs locally every day in the wet season here without tornado watch boxes, sirens, severe weather risk highlights, or storm chasing so people don't make as big of a deal, they just think of it as typical afternoon storms. Whereas in many states in the plains or the south. It may be very long time before severe weather then all of the sudden there is an explosion of severe weather from storm systems all at once so it prompts more people there to report than here? I'm just blabbing here pretty much, but it does make me wonder.

I am not one to talk though, I have had severe weather damage in my neighborhood and very close to my house several times including wind damage to trees and fencing in my yard, yet Ive never reported any of it to the SPC. Maybe its a Florida thing to not report as much, lol.


LOL, not limited to Florida! I guess these will make to the storm reports page sooner or later. Checked right befor this post-nada.

This just in:

In a public information statement released late Monday afternoon, the National Weather Service (NWS) says three tornadoes have been confirmed among the storms which passed during the early Monday morning event across north Texas.

An EF-1 tornado with winds of around 100mph touched down in Johnson County 2 miles from Rio Vista. Five homes were heavily damaged.
A second EF1 in Johnson County ripped the front off a store just west of Alvarado with other scattered damage we well.
A third tornado, also of EF1 intensity, was on the ground for a very short time in Kaufman County near Forney. It created a damage path of about 500 yards in length and 100 yards in width.

Dallas, Texas Examiner
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
The storms are growing quickly now. More forcing is taking place...NOAA just said a significant severe weather event is occurring..


6.4 earthquake very near to Tokyo.

It looks like the show has moved to the capital area and the other one on the West coast doesn't seem connected but it might be a start to another group.

The whole area is in turmoil.

Discussed earlier, but now official:

Japan to raise Fukushima crisis level to worst

The Japanese government's nuclear safety agency has decided to raise the crisis level of the Fukushima Daiichi power plant accident from 5 to 7, the worst on the international scale.

The Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency made the decision on Monday. It says the damaged facilities have been releasing a massive amount of radioactive substances, which are posing a threat to human health and the environment over a wide area.

The agency used the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale, or INES, to gauge the level. The scale was designed by an international group of experts to indicate the significance of nuclear events with ratings of 0 to 7.

On March 18th, one week after the massive quake, the agency declared the Fukushima trouble a level 5 incident, the same as the accident at Three Mile Island in the United States in 1979.

Level 7 has formerly only been applied to the Chernobyl accident in the former Soviet Union in 1986 when hundreds of thousands of terabecquerels of radioactive iodine-131 were released into the air. One terabecquerel is one trillion becquerels.

The agency believes the cumulative amount from the Fukushima plant is less than that from Chernobyl.

Officials from the agency and the Nuclear Safety Commission will hold a news conference on Tuesday morning to explain the change of evaluation

NHK Article...
<
Quoting hydrus:
<


Hydrus....where are ya in TN ?
Quoting:-211. Neapolitan

After reading this and what we were saying earlier, on this and on the last 'blog.'

They will probably have to invent the ''8'' on the scale before this lot is over, if it ever is?
Quoting beell:


LOL, not limited to Florida! I guess these will make to the storm reports page sooner or later. Checked right befor this post-nada.

This just in:

In a public information statement released late Monday afternoon, the National Weather Service (NWS) says three tornadoes have been confirmed among the storms which passed during the early Monday morning event across north Texas.

An EF-1 tornado with winds of around 100mph touched down in Johnson County 2 miles from Rio Vista. Five homes were heavily damaged.
A second EF1 in Johnson County ripped the front off a store just west of Alvarado with other scattered damage we well.
A third tornado, also of EF1 intensity, was on the ground for a very short time in Kaufman County near Forney. It created a damage path of about 500 yards in length and 100 yards in width.

Dallas, Texas Examiner


Yeah your right I can't assume its just Florida that does that lol, I Just don't closely study every state so I wouldn't know how reporting goes in some other states.
Fox news reporting a possible fire at Fukushima power plant in one of reactor building after last quake
217. beell
click for discussion


Quoting emcf30:
Fox news reporting a possible fire at Fukushima power plant in one of reactor building after last quake

Kyodo verifies the fire, but says it was extinguished in short order.

Narita airport has re-opened, but many subway lines in and around Tokyo are still closed.
50 years ago tomorrow,,a Russian test pilot Yuri Gagarin rode the Vostok Rocket to Orbit and returned safely to Earth for man's first Venture into Space.


I wunder how he felt this night before, being first, ready to see the Earth, whole from above.







Vostok 1 Launch April 12, 1961

Gagarin's flight lasted 108 minutes for a single orbit around the Earth. The mission was brought to a close with the de-orbit firing of the reentry rockets. Gagarin ejected from the capsule at 7 km altitude because the hard landing of the capsule was too dangerous for people. So he parachuted safely to the ground. April 12 has been celebrated as Cosmonautics Day in Russia every year since 1962. Vostok 1 was Gagarin's only flight.
The agency believes the cumulative amount from the Fukushima plant is less than that from Chernobyl.


Well yeah!! DUH!! Chernobyl's had a 25 year head-start!
I just hate when forecasters underestimate a season just becuase it's going to look like it's nutreal or an El nino year

Don't make me post the nutria again.

Neutral. NEW-Truhll.
222. beell
Convective activity drawing closer to a wedge of lower dewpoints over N GA and E TN.

Is it gonna end/diminish soon?


Link

Quoting aquak9:
The agency believes the cumulative amount from the Fukushima plant is less than that from Chernobyl.


Well yeah!! DUH!! Chernobyl's had a 25 year head-start!


And Chernobyl didn't happen to be in the middle of a highly active and possibly intensifying earthquake zone.

Plus they only had a major problem with one reactor!!
Tick tick tick.....Ka-Boom!
OK...Who's in charge here?!
Apparently 3 workers have had some "unintended" radiation exposure at the Cooper Nuclear Station near Brownville, Nebraska.

Reading the description of what happened is a bit unreal. Did they lower a fuel rod out of (primary) containment? If so, how long did it sit like that?

MSNBC Open Channel
Quoting presslord:
OK...Who's in charge here?!
Enter the Twilight Zone.........
Quoting aquak9:
I just hate when forecasters underestimate a season just becuase it's going to look like it's nutreal or an El nino year

Don't make me post the nutria again.

Neutral. NEW-Truhll.


Snork! :)
Quake cluster

(Can someone tell me how to remove the NOAA emblems? I seem to remember those being an issue)



red = last hour, orange = last day, yellow = last week

arrows are to Tokyo, quake cluster and Fukushima Daiichi
Here is a link to the news on the latest earthquake and the "small fire" at Fukushima.

(sorry to interrupt the weather discussion)

p.s. the fire is attributed to a building near reactor no. 4
Quoting TomTaylor:
The agency believes the cumulative amount from the Fukushima plant is less than that from Chernobyl.


Just slightly better than the worst nuclear disaster of all time? Not to mention the questionable "believes," they throw in there. Thats not a confident answer at all.


XYRUS! WHERE ARE YOU?! Surely you can twist these words around to make it sound like this disaster is no disaster at all. And then proceed to lecture us on how nuclear energy is the better option because saving money is obviously far more important than potential environmental disasters which span the course of many generations and effect all that is living.


Uncalled for and a mite lacking in the social skills.
236. P451
Quoting Jedkins01:
Storms have recently rapidly popped in Eastern PA, areas from that line east need to watch closely as well.


A few people on Blizz's weather blog have experienced them and said they were short lived, a little gusty, and a 10 minute or less burst of rain. They look meaner than they are. I'm in the Hudson Valley Region these days and it looks like I'll experience them but it won't be for hours. Temp steady at 75F after a high of 81F so maybe there will be enough juice for a rumble of thunder. Not expecting anything serious.
Oil $108.55
from that story above:

"Japan was weighing raising the severity level of its nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to a level 7 from level 5, putting it at par with the accident at the Chernobyl reactor in 1986, Kyodo news agency reported on Tuesday."

That means it's a 7, IMHO. Not good.

WTO
Quoting swampliliy:


Uncalled for and a mite lacking in the social skills.
You think?
Situation Update No. 2
On 11.04.2011 at 13:19 GMT+2

Wildfires roared through Texas yesterday, burning more than 230,000 acres and destroying about 80 homes. One West Texas blaze covered 20 miles in 90 minutes, crossing railroad tracks and state highways as it burned more than 60,000 acres and destroyed 40 homes. "Frankly, it moved almost as quick as a truck," the county emergency management coordinator tells Reuters. "When you hear the word firestorm, this is what I imagine." Dry, windy conditions have fed wildfires for the past eight days across the state, and officials say that the West Texas blaze could continue burning for days or weeks if the wind doesn't change. In the northern Panhandle, a firefighter fighting an estimated 60,000-acre blaze was in critical condition after suffering severe burns. Crews and equipment from 25 states are in Texas to help.
241. P451
Oh, I see things are still going well in Japan.

=========================

TOKYO (Reuters) - Engineers were fighting a fire at Japan's crippled nuclear plant on Tuesday as another major aftershock rocked eastern Japan, swaying buildings in central Tokyo and closing Narita airport runways.

Japan is considering raising the severity level of its nuclear crisis to put it on a par with the Chernobyl accident 25 years ago, the worst atomic power disaster in history, Kyodo news agency reported on Tuesday.

Operator of the crippled Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant, 240 km (150 miles) north of Tokyo, said on Tuesday that its workers were fighting a fire near damaged reactor No. 4.

It was unclear how serious the fire was.

"Flames and smoke are no longer visible but we are awaiting further details regarding whether the fire has been extinguished completely," said a spokesman for Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO).

News of the fire came only minutes after a 6.3 aftershock struck off the coast of Chiba, 77 km (48 miles) northwest of Tokyo. Kyodo said Japan's main international airport Narita closed runways for checks but later resumed flights.

An aftershock measuring 6.6 quake hit Fukushima prefecture on Monday evening temporarily cutting power and forcing workers to evacuate the nuclear plant.


The Kyodo reported on Tuesday that the high levels of radiation that have been released by the Fukushima Daiichi plant meant it could raise the severity level from 5 to the highest 7, the same as the 1986 Chernobyl accident.


....

Because of accumulated radiation contamination, the government is encouraging people to leave certain areas beyond its 20 km (12 mile) exclusion zone around the plant. Thousands of people could be affected by the move.
The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is -2.05
Xyrus is eating crow.

Taz fixed it for him.
Quoting P451:
Because of accumulated radiation contamination, the government is encouraging people to leave certain areas beyond its 20 km (12 mile) exclusion zone around the plant. Thousands of people could be affected by the move.

The government is doing more than that; they are in the process of declaring it off-limits to anyone but designated clean-up personnel. As I said yesterday, another step on the path to declaring a Pripyat-like buyout and permanent clear-out of the entire area.
Quoting WatchingThisOne:
from that story above:

"Japan was weighing raising the severity level of its nuclear crisis at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant to a level 7 from level 5, putting it at par with the accident at the Chernobyl reactor in 1986, Kyodo news agency reported on Tuesday."

That means it's a 7, IMHO. Not good.

WTO

More than weighing it; both Kyodo and NHK say it's a done deal...
Quoting P451:


A few people on Blizz's weather blog have experienced them and said they were short lived, a little gusty, and a 10 minute or less burst of rain. They look meaner than they are. I'm in the Hudson Valley Region these days and it looks like I'll experience them but it won't be for hours. Temp steady at 75F after a high of 81F so maybe there will be enough juice for a rumble of thunder. Not expecting anything serious.


I'm used to the opposite here, storms being meaner than they look on radar when it gets really tropical in Central Florida.

That's good to hear, no severe weather! They must just be elevated convective cells. The PWAT is only around an inch there too so nothing special. That's not too surprising. They usually don't start getting real thunderstorms up there till summer.
Quoting Neapolitan:

More than weighing it; both Kyodo and NHK say it's a done deal...



as a practical matter...What does this mean?
249. P451
Quoting Neapolitan:

The government is doing more than that; they are in the process of declaring it off-limits to anyone but designated clean-up personnel. As I said yesterday, another step on the path to declaring a Pripyat-like buyout and permanent clear-out of the entire area.


I think you're correct about that correlation. Just a matter of time now.
Quoting presslord:



as a practical matter...What does this mean?


They rate nuclear, uhm, "situations" with a number, 1 to 7, 7 being a Chernobyl situation.

Tokyo et al has raised the calamity status of the Fukushima situation to a 7; it had been at a 5.

Personally I don't think things really got any worse- they're just admitting and facing reality now.
Quoting Neapolitan:

The government is doing more than that; they are in the process of declaring it off-limits to anyone but designated clean-up personnel. As I said yesterday, another step on the path to declaring a Pripyat-like buyout and permanent clear-out of the entire area.

What size area are we talking about?
What industries are in that area?
Anyone know??
Quoting presslord:



as a practical matter...What does this mean?

Well, to begin with, it's an admission by the Japanese government that things really are FUBAR, far more than they've been admitting. For another, it paves the way to more international cooperation and understanding so far as the cleanup is concerned. And, as I stated a few comments back, it sets the stage for the buyout and close-out of hundreds of square kilometers of land, and the relocation of thousands of residents, each of who will need new homes, new schools, new jobs...
Quoting P451:


I think you're correct about that correlation. Just a matter of time now.
He's sure about everything.

"What's dangerous about a man isn't what he doesn't know it's what he thinks he knows that he doesn't."
Mark Twain
Quoting swampliliy:


Uncalled for and a mite lacking in the social skills.
I was doing my best to describe exactly what xyrus does when he responds to anything nuclear related.

Has nothing to do with social skills...but if you think so, maybe you have poor social skills
Quoting Neapolitan:

Well, to begin with, it's an admission by the Japanese government that things really are FUBAR, far more than they've been admitting. For another, it paves the way to more international cooperation and understanding so far as the cleanup is concerned. And, as I stated a few comments back, it sets the stage for the buyout and close-out of hundreds of square kilometers of land, and the relocation of thousands of residents, each of who will need new homes, new schools, new jobs...


Great!!! Sounds like a construction boom!! So...Everything's good....Right?
Quoting presslord:


Great!!! Sounds like a construction boom!! So...Everything's good....Right?
LOL.
Quoting pottery:

What size area are we talking about?
What industries are in that area?
Anyone know??

If the entire 20 kilometers is bought out, that takes a bit over 600 km2 out of service. If it's 30 kilometers, it's closer to 1400 km2. (And if it's, say, 10 kilometers, that's "just" 150 km2 or so.)

To reiterate, there's no concrete talk about this, but government talk seems to be heading that way...

So far as industry, it all appears to be light, with farming at the top of the list.
259. beell
Quoting Skyepony:
Situation Update No. 2
On 11.04.2011 at 13:19 GMT+2

Wildfires roared through Texas yesterday, burning more than 230,000 acres and destroying about 80 homes. One West Texas blaze covered 20 miles in 90 minutes, crossing railroad tracks and state highways as it burned more than 60,000 acres and destroyed 40 homes. "Frankly, it moved almost as quick as a truck," the county emergency management coordinator tells Reuters. "When you hear the word firestorm, this is what I imagine." Dry, windy conditions have fed wildfires for the past eight days across the state, and officials say that the West Texas blaze could continue burning for days or weeks if the wind doesn't change. In the northern Panhandle, a firefighter fighting an estimated 60,000-acre blaze was in critical condition after suffering severe burns. Crews and equipment from 25 states are in Texas to help.


Nasty turn of winds from the SW to the NW yesterday. Wonder if the injured firefighter got caught in that?
Quoting pottery:

What size area are we talking about?
What industries are in that area?
Anyone know??


The size of the area is 2827 square kilometers at a 30 kilometer radius.

At a 40 kilometer radius it would be 5027 kilometers

sizes are approx. About half the exclusion area is sea but this is also excluded to fishing etc we assume.

Apart from fishing and agriculture there are probably a lot of service industries here but the main loss must be the farming industry,plus of course a big percentage of the areas power generation is permanently gone.
Birmingham duck.
Quoting PlazaRed:


The size of the area is 2827 square kilometers at a 30 kilometer radius.

At a 40 kilometer radius it would be 5027 kilometers

sizes are approx.

Apart from fishing and agriculture there are probably a lot of service industries here but the main loss must be the farming industry,plus of course a big percentage of the areas power generation is permanently gone.

Your numbers are correct, but as the nuclear plant is on the edge of a fairly straight coast, I calculated the "deadland" area as roughly half those numbers.
Not to pile on misery, but does anyone know the frequency of a tropical cyclone hitting the NE of Japan?
Quoting Neapolitan:

If the entire 20 kilometers is bought out, that takes a bit over 600 km2 out of service. If it's 30 kilometers, it's closer to 1400 km2. (And if it's, say, 10 kilometers, that's "just" 150 km2 or so.)

To reiterate, there's no concrete talk about this, but government talk seems to be heading that way...

Thanks.
I was more interested to find out what Industrial output might be affected.
If factories have to move and re-start, that could take a year or two, depending...

In any case, it's a serious situation. And it doesnt seem to be getting any better.
The funds needed to rebuild towns, lives and infrastucture are already vast. An abandonment of an area that large will raise that funding a lot.
Issued by The National Weather Service
Mobile, AL
7:58 pm CDT, Mon., Apr. 11, 2011

... A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT FOR NORTHERN CLARKE COUNTY...

AT 758 PM CDT... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO WAS NEAR MCENTYRE... OR ABOUT 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF GROVE HILL... MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... GREENWOOD AND PEACOCK AROUND 805 PM CDT... ROUNDHILL... THOMASVILLE... RURAL AND SPRINGFIELD AROUND 810 PM CDT...
Quoting Neapolitan:

Your numbers are correct, but as the nuclear plant is on the edge of a fairly straight coast, I calculated the "deadland" area as roughly half those numbers.

Good point.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Your numbers are correct, but as the nuclear plant is on the edge of a fairly straight coast, I calculated the "deadland" area as roughly half those numbers.


I was just adjusting my post on realizing what you pointed out but we also ''know'' that it will probably get a lot worse than this and the USA advised a 80 KM zone a long time ago now.

With a 40 kilomter radius exclusion zone there are about a 1000 sq miles of farmland taken out of production, if you exclude the sea area of also about 1000 sq miles.



Looks like things are really getting sticky in Alabama as i thought would happen.
So far as industry, it all appears to be light, with farming at the top of the list.

Farming?

oh yeah, it's just FOOD...besides there aren't that many people left to relocate, right? they all got swept out to sea. That many less people to relocate; that many less people to FEED.
Quoting aquak9:
So far as industry, it all appears to be light, with farming at the top of the list.

Farming?

oh yeah, it's just FOOD...besides there aren't that many people left to relocate, right? they all got swept out to sea. That many less people to relocate; that many less people to FEED.
Pretty cynical.
Quoting aquak9:
So far as industry, it all appears to be light, with farming at the top of the list.

Farming?

oh yeah, it's just FOOD...besides there aren't that many people left to relocate, right? they all got swept out to sea. That many less people to relocate; that many less people to FEED.


you get a Big Gold Star for this...nicely done
273. beell
Quoting twincomanche:
Pretty cynical.


i think that's sarcasm.
how ironic.
)


Big dip in the Jet Stream 9-10 days out coming with the GFS........this could be the next big outbreak coming. Something to watch for sure as it appears to dip very south into California.
Quoting beell:


i think that's sarcasm.
how ironic.
)
Eventually you will know the truth young Jedi. It will become evident to you.
Pot, kettle.

Kettle, pot.

Cynical? oh heavens no. I have complete faith in TEPCO's (and everyone else's) ability to handle this minor glitch. Japan and it's people will be just fine.

We can blame the increased deaths, miscarriages, thyroid cancers, etc etc on uhm...what? Global warming?

"Wave your hands in the air
like you don't care..
Glide by the people
as they stop to look and stare"

Word Up

g'nite ya'll
279. beell
Quoting twincomanche:
Eventually you will know the truth young Jedi. It will become evident to you.


then of course, there is
sarchasm

the gulf between the author of sarcastic wit and the person who doesn't get it

j/k/tc
Quoting aquak9:
Pot, kettle.

Kettle, pot.

Cynical? oh heavens no. I have complete faith in TEPCO's (and everyone else's) ability to handle this minor glitch. Japan and it's people will be just fine.

We can blame the increased deaths, miscarriages, thyroid cancers, etc etc on uhm...what? Global warming?

So sayeth.
Finally finished uploading these. Notice how the negative AO and some well timed fronts/lows protected CONUS (for the most part) in 2010.

2010 Atlantic 500mb Vorticity
2005 Atlantic 500mb Vorticity
2005 WHO Report

Chernobyl: the true scale of the accident
20 Years Later a UN Report Provides Definitive Answers and Ways to Repair Lives

Joint News Release WHO/IAEA/UNDP


Major study findings

Dozens of important findings are included in the massive report:

* Approximately 1000 on-site reactor staff and emergency workers were heavily exposed to high-level radiation on the first day of the accident; among the more than 200 000 emergency and recovery operation workers exposed during the period from 1986-1987, an estimated 2200 radiation-caused deaths can be expected during their lifetime.
* An estimated five million people currently live in areas of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine that are contaminated with radionuclides due to the accident; about 100 000 of them live in areas classified in the past by government authorities as areas of “strict control”. The existing “zoning” definitions need to be revisited and relaxed in light of the new findings.
* About 4000 cases of thyroid cancer, mainly in children and adolescents at the time of the accident, have resulted from the accident’s contamination and at least nine children died of thyroid cancer; however the survival rate among such cancer victims, judging from experience in Belarus, has been almost 99%.
* Most emergency workers and people living in contaminated areas received relatively low whole body radiation doses, comparable to natural background levels. As a consequence, no evidence or likelihood of decreased fertility among the affected population has been found, nor has there been any evidence of increases in congenital malformations that can be attributed to radiation exposure.
* Poverty, “lifestyle” diseases now rampant in the former Soviet Union and mental health problems pose a far greater threat to local communities than does radiation exposure.
* Relocation proved a “deeply traumatic experience” for some 350,000 people moved out of the affected areas. Although 116 000 were moved from the most heavily impacted area immediately after the accident, later relocations did little to reduce radiation exposure.
* Persistent myths and misperceptions about the threat of radiation have resulted in “paralyzing fatalism” among residents of affected areas.
* Ambitious rehabilitation and social benefit programs started by the former Soviet Union, and continued by Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, need reformulation due to changes in radiation conditions, poor targeting and funding shortages.
* Structural elements of the sarcophagus built to contain the damaged reactor have degraded, posing a risk of collapse and the release of radioactive dust;
* A comprehensive plan to dispose of tons of high-level radioactive waste at and around the Chernobyl NPP site, in accordance with current safety standards, has yet to be defined.

Alongside radiation-induced deaths and diseases, the report labels the mental health impact of Chernobyl as “the largest public health problem created by the accident” and partially attributes this damaging psychological impact to a lack of accurate information. These problems manifest as negative self-assessments of health, belief in a shortened life expectancy, lack of initiative, and dependency on assistance from the state.
Hey Grothar you back from bingo yet?
S.E. Texas is in a drought too. Not so bad as the rest of Texas... but we've had about 1/2 the amount of rain as normal. Everything is dry.

We had an extremely brief 5-minute rainstorm today when that front came through. Still, I wish it had fallen West of here for those that really need the rain badly.
Quoting PlazaRed:


I was just adjusting my post on realizing what you pointed out but we also ''know'' that it will probably get a lot worse than this and the USA advised a 80 KM zone a long time ago now.

With a 40 kilomter radius exclusion zone there are about a 1000 sq miles of farmland taken out of production, if you exclude the sea area of also about 1000 sq miles.
1000 sq miles = 640,000 acres
287. beell
click for full discussion


...STABILIZING TRENDS ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING SQUALL LINE
IS UNLIKELY. HOWEVER...MOISTENING ON SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD
OF THE LINE WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION...WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TURNING EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TO MAINTAIN VIGOROUS CONVECTION THROUGH
AT LEAST THE BALANCE OF THE EVENING HOURS...
Quoting Patrap:
2005 WHO Report

Chernobyl: the true scale of the accident
20 Years Later a UN Report Provides Definitive Answers and Ways to Repair Lives

Joint News Release WHO/IAEA/UNDP


Major study findings

Dozens of important findings are included in the massive report:

* Approximately 1000 on-site reactor staff and emergency workers were heavily exposed to high-level radiation on the first day of the accident; among the more than 200 000 emergency and recovery operation workers exposed during the period from 1986-1987, an estimated 2200 radiation-caused deaths can be expected during their lifetime.
* An estimated five million people currently live in areas of Belarus, Russia and Ukraine that are contaminated with radionuclides due to the accident; about 100 000 of them live in areas classified in the past by government authorities as areas of %u201Cstrict control%u201D. The existing %u201Czoning%u201D definitions need to be revisited and relaxed in light of the new findings.
* About 4000 cases of thyroid cancer, mainly in children and adolescents at the time of the accident, have resulted from the accident%u2019s contamination and at least nine children died of thyroid cancer; however the survival rate among such cancer victims, judging from experience in Belarus, has been almost 99%.
* Most emergency workers and people living in contaminated areas received relatively low whole body radiation doses, comparable to natural background levels. As a consequence, no evidence or likelihood of decreased fertility among the affected population has been found, nor has there been any evidence of increases in congenital malformations that can be attributed to radiation exposure.
* Poverty, %u201Clifestyle%u201D diseases now rampant in the former Soviet Union and mental health problems pose a far greater threat to local communities than does radiation exposure.
* Relocation proved a %u201Cdeeply traumatic experience%u201D for some 350,000 people moved out of the affected areas. Although 116 000 were moved from the most heavily impacted area immediately after the accident, later relocations did little to reduce radiation exposure.
* Persistent myths and misperceptions about the threat of radiation have resulted in %u201Cparalyzing fatalism%u201D among residents of affected areas.
* Ambitious rehabilitation and social benefit programs started by the former Soviet Union, and continued by Belarus, Russia and Ukraine, need reformulation due to changes in radiation conditions, poor targeting and funding shortages.
* Structural elements of the sarcophagus built to contain the damaged reactor have degraded, posing a risk of collapse and the release of radioactive dust;
* A comprehensive plan to dispose of tons of high-level radioactive waste at and around the Chernobyl NPP site, in accordance with current safety standards, has yet to be defined.

Alongside radiation-induced deaths and diseases, the report labels the mental health impact of Chernobyl as %u201Cthe largest public health problem created by the accident%u201D and partially attributes this damaging psychological impact to a lack of accurate information. These problems manifest as negative self-assessments of health, belief in a shortened life expectancy, lack of initiative, and dependency on assistance from the state.

"Only" 4,000 deaths? Why, that's not so bad. :-\

An English-language translation (Chernobyl: Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment) of a peer-reviewed 2007 Russian publication paints a drastically different picture, claiming that the UN report to which you linked overlooked 5,000 or so Slavic-language science papers, papers that when looked at found deaths approaching one million from 1986 through 2004, with nearly 170,000 of those in North American alone. This paper uses an entirely different methodology to factor deaths. But while the actual number may not be that high, it's almost certainly nowhere near the simplistically-figured 4,000 figure. And that may be what's most disconcerting of all about nuclear incidents; the true cost in terms of life and health can never be known--and, as such, it will never be a safe industry in its current incarnation.
Quoting Grothar:
Are you all playing nice?


We are now..... Sir.
Officials reclassified the ongoing emergency from level 5, an “accident with off-site risk,” to level 7, a “major accident.” The reassessment comes at a time when the International Atomic Energy Agency says the plant is showing “early signs of recovery” but still in a critical condition.

The plant’s debilitated reactors face constant threat of strong aftershocks, and the latest on Tuesday morning — a 6.4-magnitude temblor — caused a brief fire at a water sampling facility near Daiichi’s No. 4 reactor. The Tokyo Electric Power Co., which operates the facility, said that the critical process used to cool the hot fuel rods had not been interrupted, and radiation levels showed no signs of change.

A level 7 accident, according to the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale, is typified by a “major release of radioactive material with widespread health and environmental effects.”
1000 su mi. = 650,000 acres / 331 acres (average Iowa farm 2007)* = 1,963 farms

Iowa state university
297. beell


Hail Reports.
Reporter in Grafton, NH had no access to ping pong/golf balls nor loose change (added by beell)

1230 100 BATH GRAFTON NH 4417 7197
MEASURED WITH RULER (GYX)

1430 100 SANFORD YORK ME
4344 7077 (GYX)

0027 175 HEBRON MARSHALL AL
3449 8638
GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED. (HUN)

0116 150 MENTONE DEKALB AL
3457 8558 QUARTER TO PING PONG SIZE HAIL NEAR DE SOTO STATE PARK. (HUN)
.."Big Duke NOLA 7 standing by on the NOAA Alert Radio Network"..

Go ahead Blogger, you're on the AIR !

399
WFUS54 KBMX 120157
TORBMX
ALC029-120230-
/O.NEW.KBMX.TO.W.0045.110412T0157Z-110412T0230Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
857 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN CLEBURNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA...

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 853 PM CDT...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDICATED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM
WAS LOCATED NEAR HEFLIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HEFLIN...EDWARDSVILLE...FRUITHURST...ABERNATHY...M USCADINE AND I 20
WELCOME CENTER.

THIS INCLUDES...
INTERSTATE 20 EXIT NUMBERS 199 THROUGH 210...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY BUILDING.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND
WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. DO NOT WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR THE
TORNADO. FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST
FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS.



TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...
CALL 1-800-856-0758.

LAT...LON 3356 8570 3362 8570 3363 8569 3364 8565
3365 8564 3369 8564 3381 8536 3370 8534
3370 8533 3367 8533 3366 8532 3354 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 0157Z 265DEG 39KT 3362 8560
Quoting Skyepony:
The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is -2.05
And what does that mean?
Neo where did you get that information that chernobyl caused 170,000 deaths in north america the same place where you got the information about, which I quote, [ many american rivers have their headwaters in canada] besides the columbia river name five or do you believe the only north flowing river is the st. johns in florida
strong azores high
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
LOL what am i suppose to see here?
Will this never end? Link
Quoting Gearsts:
LOL what am i suppose to see here?

1000 mb winds m/s
areas of high and low pressures
across north atlantic

just noting the 1059 going to 1060 high pressure area ne of azores islands


little shaker off the northwest coast


Uploaded by Euronews on Apr 11, 2011

Japan is extending the evacuation zone around the Fukushima nuclear plant because of increased radiation.

The news comes as ceremonies have been held to commemorate one month since the earthquake and tsunami devastated the country's north-east coast.

Survivors now living in shelters because their homes were destroyed observed a minute's silence, marking the moment the quake struck.

Japan's prime minister Naoto Kan has thanked people around the world for their support and solidarity.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
1000 su mi. = 650,000 acres / 331 acres (average Iowa farm 2007)* = 1,963 farms

Iowa state university


650,000 acres/5 acres (average Japanese farm*)=130,000 farms= how many to resettle?

*ERS/USDA Briefing Room

the mind boggles
Japan is relative in scale to California,,so that's a big chunk of agriculture being taken.

No watches or warnings up for Macon, Ga yet.
Looks to be one of those 3 in the morning house calls. :(
316. beell
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:


650,000 acres/5 acres (average Japanese farm*)=130,000 farms= how many to resettle?

*ERS/USDA Briefing Room

the mind boggles


Kinda what I was thinking, Shen. The number of displaced farmers may be higher than what we might expect to see in the US based on total acreage lost.

Somewhere between your two numbers-after that, speculation here.

Quoting beell:
Truck Farms in Fukushima Prefecture
(pg 227)

Japan in the 21st century: environment, economy - By Pradyumna Prasad Karan, Dick Gilbreath (2005)
Interesting how did you find it?
Quoting RTLSNK:
No watches or warnings up for Macon, Ga yet.
Looks to be one of those 3 in the morning house calls. :(

Keep safe there, Snake.
319. beell
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Interesting how did you find it?


Remembered hearing a news acount or two of the truck farms wiped out by the tsunami. A different way of farming that is mainstream in Japan.

Googled "Truck Farms Fukushima Prefecture" after your post, lol!

or maybe...

In a former/farmer life, I was a Japanese Spinach Rancher...
Quoting beell:


Remebered hearing a news acount or two of the truck farms wiped out by the tsunami. A different way of farming that is mainstream in Japan.

Googled "Truck Farms Fukushima Prefecture" after your post, lol!

or maybe...

In a former/farmer life, I was a Japanese Spinach Rancher...
Both Grandfathers were farmers. My Mother's family made it through the great depression by truck farming. Several cousins farm, # 1 son farms and runs an ag based small business.
Japan ups nuke crisis severity to match Chernobyl
By YURI KAGEYAMA and RYAN NAKASHIMA, Associated Press 4 mins ago

TOKYO – Japan's nuclear regulators raised the severity level of the crisis at a stricken nuclear plant Tuesday to rank it on par with the 1986 Chernobyl disaster.

An official with the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan, speaking on national television, said the rating was being raised from 5 to 7 — the highest level on the international scale.

The official, who was not named, said the amount of radiation leaking from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant was around 10 percent of the Chernobyl accident.

The level 7 signifies a "major accident" with "wider consequences" than the previous level, according to the standards scale.

"We have upgraded the severity level to 7 as the impact of radiation leaks has been widespread from the air, vegetables, tap water and the ocean," said Minoru Oogoda of Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency.

NISA officials said one of the factors behind the decision was that the total amount of radioactive particles released into the atmosphere since the incident had reached levels that apply to a Level 7 incident.

The action lifts the rating to the highest on an international scale designed by an international group of experts in 1989 and is overseen by the International Atomic Energy Agency.

In Chernobyl, in the Ukraine, a reactor exploded on April 26, 1986, spewing a cloud of radiation over much of the Northern Hemisphere. A zone about 19 miles (30 kilometers) around the plant was declared uninhabitable, although some plant workers still live there for short periods and a few hundred other people have returned despite government encouragement to stay away.
322. beell
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Both Grandfathers were farmers. My Mother's family made it through the great depression by truck farming. Several cousins farm, # 1 son farms and runs an ag based small business.


Yes sir. Small truck farms are still an honorable way to live for a few.

beell is small truck farming like a rural farmers market?
324. beell
Well, that's it for me, folks.
G'nite.

PS eddy12 - It can take several different forms. Barter, selling to a co-op, a roadside stand or to who ever wants to buy farm fresh vegetables.

Many different ways to get many different products to market on a small scale (usually).

You can also eat quite nicely on what you grow when times are tough or otherwise. Not sure of the marketing set-up in Japan.

Just different than a wheat farmer with 5,000-10,000 acres.

Someone else may have a better definition (Shen?)



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0420
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1000 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH NEEDED SOON

VALID 120300Z - 120330Z

THE SQUALL LINE IS LIKELY WELL PAST PEAK...BUT WEAKENING PROBABLY
WILL BE SLOW ENOUGH...IN THE PRESENCE OF FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE
FORCING AND SHEAR...THAT AT LEAST A CONTINUING RISK FOR DAMAGING
WINDS PERSIST WITH ACTIVITY AS IT SPREADS INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH THE 06-08Z TIME FRAME.

..KERR.. 04/12/2011
Truck farming is labor intensive produce farming. Expression came from necessity to transport it to market (truck it) immediately after harvest as opposed to crop farming where the product can be stored prior to sale. Folks you see at farmers markets are "truck farmers".
Quoting TomTaylor:
The agency believes the cumulative amount from the Fukushima plant is less than that from Chernobyl.


Just slightly better than the worst nuclear disaster of all time? Not to mention the questionable "believes," they throw in there. Thats not a confident answer at all.


XYRUS! WHERE ARE YOU?! Surely you can twist these words around to make it sound like this disaster is no disaster at all. And then proceed to lecture us on how nuclear energy is the better option because saving money is obviously far more important than potential environmental disasters which span the course of many generations and effect all that is living.


Bovine excrement.

At no point did I ever say that this wasn't a disaster. At no point did I say this wasn't serious. I have continuously, and repeatedly based my statements and observations on the available information about the situation instead of wild paranoid speculation, which is what several members of this community have been posting.

I have also never said that saving money is the primary goal of nuclear power, nor the primary reason for why nuclear power should be part of a national energy policy. In fact, that statement doesn't even make sense as nuclear energy isn't cheaper in the US. Even the WNA admits that nuclear is only price competitive in areas where there isn't easy access to fossil fuels.

You are also under the impression that somehow other forms of power don't cause multi-generational issues. Let's leave out climate change, since I know you don't like scientifically backed research. We'll just look at couple places you can visit right now and see what wonders other fuels can due to the environment.

Let's begin with Centralia, PA. An underground coal mine fire turned it from a quaint little town into toxic waste land. The fire's current size is about 400 acres and growing in all directions following the rich coal seams. Current estimates show that this fire will continue to burn for another 250-1000 years, turning anything that happens to be above into a superfund site. Not only that, but all the crap that comes from burning coal (radioactive minerals, heavy metals, etc) are seeping right into the water table. If you live near a coal plant, better hope it never catches fire cause the fly ash and other materials released by a coal fire will turn where you live into a disaster zone.

That's just one example. China is the current reigning champion of man-made coal fires. Many of these fires will burn for hundreds of years, causing wide spread devastation. And that's not even getting into the environmental damage caused by the mining operation itself. Just search for man-made coal fires for a list of places to visit.

Then we have oil. The process of refining is so pollution ridden and toxic that refineries are not allowed to be built close to any populated areas (ones that already exist are exempted). Why? Because a disaster at a refinery would most likely kill everything surrounding in short order. Such a disaster site would be uninhabitable for decades unless extreme measures were undertaken to remove the long lived chemical contaminants from the area. Refineries are just as heavily regulated (if not more so) than nuclear plants for exactly the same reason: Any serious disaster would cause widespread ecological destruction. Worse even. A toxic plume from an oil refinery will kill you a lot faster.

Or we could dive into the ecological destruction caused by tar sands or oil shale production. Nothing like turning turning hundreds of thousands of square kilometers of land into waste to feed our energy needs. On the bright side, you could probably buy that land for pennies once they're through surface stripping.

So where were we? Ah yes, multi-generational disasters. Right. So lets compare the lethality. Comparing nuclear to fossil fuels over the span of history that nuclear power has been used (about 60 years or so) shows that fossil fuels are a veritable weapon of mass destruction, killing thousands upon thousands of people through pollution, mining, and related impacts. Nuclear power ranks down with solar an wind power for fatalities. Shall we compare pollution? Fossil fuel burning and refineries dump thousands of tons of toxic materials into the environment through land, water, and air having widespread effects across the globe, including ozone depletion, acid rain, and climate change. Nuclear energy? There have been two incidents of serious area contamination, and those have been relatively confined to small areas of the planet.

And let's talk about that contamination and the lethality thereof. It takes a cumulative dose of 1 Sv over the course of the year to change your LIFETIME likelihood of dying by cancer from norm of 14% to 19%. For comparison, your odds of dying from heart disease is 20%. And 1 Sv is A LOT of radiation.

Now, let's have some more perspective. Your odds of dying in a nuclear accident, even after Japan, stand at about 1 in 10,000,000. This happens to be the same as getting struck by lightning. So you are more likely to die from:

1. A terrorist attack (1 in 9,300,000).
2. Fireworks discharge (1 in 650,000)
3. Tornado (1 in 60,000)
4. Legal execution (1 in 58,000)
5. Toxic chemical exposure (pollution, toxic plume, etc) (1 in 32,000)
5. Electrocution (1 in 5,000)
6. Natural disaster (including tornado) (1 in 3,500)
7. Fire (1 in 1200)
8. Falling down (1 in 246)
9. Vehicle accident (1 in 100)
10. Accident around the home (1 in 36)

The risk of dying from a disease takes the top spots, with heart disease taking number one (1 in 5), cancer taking number two (1 in 7), and stroke at number 3 (1 in 23).

So how exactly is nuclear worse for the environment? Fossil fuels are orders of magnitude more lethal, cause far more widespread ecological damage, and is more than capable of contaminating or turning large areas into uninhabitable toxic waste land. And given the mortality statistics, you've got bigger problems to worry about than a nuclear disaster, even if you're in one. The lack of adequate food, shelter, and social order after such an incident is far more likely to kill you than the radiation will (like all those forgotten people left suffering in Japan while the collective American Idiots were out buying iodine pills).

Quite the contrary to your false accusation about my stance on nuclear power, the only thing fossils fuels have over nuclear is COST. In every other category nuclear wins, from mortality rates to pollution.

You've never let facts stand in your way before, and I doubt you'll start now. Believe whatever you want. But if you want toss around childish passive aggressive remarks, insults, and outright lies about what I've said then I'll be more than happy to let the moderators deal with it. In the meantime, until you have something constructive and useful to contribute, I think adding you to the ignore list will for while will probably be best.
Quoting swampliliy:


Uncalled for and a mite lacking in the social skills.
And you thought I was kidding. LOL



Hey, xyrus
The incalculable cost of nuclear power

Despite the Fukushima catastrophe, nuclear energy has green advocates. Low carbon it may be, but are they pricing it right?

George Monbiot caused quite a stir recently when he declared that the Fukushima Daiichi disaster had confirmed him as a supporter of nuclear power as part of the solution for reducing carbon emissions. But the costs and uncertainties of the industry cast serious doubt on the prospects for a nuclear renaissance.

Monbiot is not the first climate advocate to call for more nuclear power. Steward Brand, famous as publisher of the Whole Earth Catalog, has announced that he favours building more nuclear power because, as he puts it, "coal is so awful."

Such declarations are taken as evidence that environmentalists are becoming more hardheaded about energy economics. Monbiot complains that renewable energy advocates are using a double standard in assessing the economics, but nuclear power has never been able to stand on its own without government backup.

If the costs and benefits of nuclear power are so attractive, where are the investors? At least with wind and solar power, it is possible to see the cost curve dropping to the break-even point in the near future. Nuclear power, by contrast, may never be able to convince investors to put their money down without government guarantees.

The prospect of cost overruns, waste disposal and extended shutdowns are daunting enough. But mostly, it is the potential cost of catastrophic failure that scares away investors. Large-scale disasters, however rare, are colossally expensive, as well as dangerous. The first estimate of entombing the Fukushima plant is $12bn. And this doesn't include the other liabilities that could force the Japanese government to nationalise the Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco).

Several years ago, I heard Jeff Immelt, the CEO of General Electric, say that commercial nuclear power won't be developed in the US without federal liability or financing guarantees. The risks, however remote, are so expensive that investors don't want to take them on, no matter what the return.

Monbiot, Brand and others rightly point to the heavy health and environmental costs of coal power. Researchers from Harvard recently published a study titled "Full cost accounting for the life cycle of coal" (pdf) that calculates the full health and environmental costs of coal power in the US to be $175bn to $523bn annually. The costs in China, with its lax or nonexistent health and environmental protections, may well be much higher. Reducing the use of coal is perhaps the single most important thing we can do to reduce air pollution and protect our climate.

The total costs of coal may be high, but the total costs of nuclear power are, in any meaningful sense, incalculable. Investors face cost overruns that could burn through even the deepest pockets. The true cost of waste disposal still is not known. The cost of decommissioning, even decades away, is also a big unknown. And the cost of catastrophic failure is more than a company as large as GE is willing to face. How can any investor calculate the return on investment with such large uncertainties?

And yet the cynics still assert that nuclear power is more practical than renewable energy. Renewable advocates are finding ways to promote solar and wind energy %u2013 without requiring the feed-in tariffs Monbiot cites as too expensive.

Looking at the bigger picture, I don't see why I or anyone should apologise for advocating developing energy resources that don't blow up and take their investors with them. The renewable energy advocates I work with are willing, and even eager, to discuss the full costs and benefits of all sources of energy. Supporters of nuclear power should be willing to hold themselves to the same standard.
327. Xyrus2000 11:25 PM EDT on April 11, 2011

The moral of the story is that present rates of energy consumption is unsustainable.
Who here agrees that theoretical Calculus and differential equations are the most mentally draining stuff in college? I mean I know some people actually like the stuff but that's an exception LOL.


The weirdest stuff seems to spurt out of my mouth after doing hours of the stuff. Maybe that's why us scientific people are often referred to as "mad" :)
327, Xyrus

The chances of death are low. But now that entire area surrounding the plant will have to basically be abandoned. How large of an area they finally decide on isn't known at the moment, but don't you find it disturbing that sections of our planet have to be literally abandoned?

The reason we dont see many deaths is because we limit exposure. However, to limit exposure we literally have to cut out sections of our earth and deem them unsafe. Unlike an oil spill, this stuff doesn't go away after a few years, it can take a century, or longer.


Many deaths? Probably not at all. Massive environmental disaster that will continue for many generations? Indeed.



That's the real problem with nuclear power plant disasters. The environment surrounding the plant is completely and fully devastated. Known to be unsafe for decades. Feared to be unsafe for centuries.


Unfortunately, as much as I oppose nuclear energy, we will see more plants in the future simply because our energy demands are only rising and renewables are not yet cheap enough.
thank you for the answer beell and shen appreciate it
Almost all forms of current energy production are harmful, the methods do not change because of the few who profit from the lack of change. With climate change and the increase in strong hurricanes, just how many nuclear power plants on the coastlines can withstand such damage?

I think it would be wise to start shutting down such plants, and to go with another plan which most avoid consideration of all together. Infrared solar panels are the future technology, they have produced p-i-n junctions with ~66% efficiency through the visible and IR bands (using silicon quantum-dots). So basically this would help the heat issues, reduce pollution and aid in climate change adaption. Why isn't this the #1 goal of research and implementation right now? because you build the things and then your done. There isn't a constant need of digging something out of the ground and burning it, or creating nuclear reactions. The solutions to our problems do not fit with our current society (which is produce, produce and produce).
Quoting Jedkins01:
Who here agrees that theoretical Calculus and differential equations are the most mentally draining stuff in college? I mean I know some people actually like the stuff but that's an exception LOL.


The weirdest stuff seems to spurt out of my mouth after doing hours of the stuff. Maybe that's why us scientific people are often referred to as "mad" :)
sounds like fun lol. I have a few questions though..

Are you taking any classes directly related to meteorology, like a meterology 100 (whatever number) class? What other classes are you taking for your major? What type of degree are you going for?

Sorry for all the questions, but I'd appreciate it if you could answer them all :)
Quoting Jedkins01:
Who here agrees that theoretical Calculus and differential equations are the most mentally draining stuff in college? I mean I know some people actually like the stuff but that's an exception LOL.


The weirdest stuff seems to spurt out of my mouth after doing hours of the stuff. Maybe that's why us scientific people are often referred to as "mad" :)


Ah come on that's the fun stuff. Try some classical electrodynamics or quantum field theory. Actually all you really need to know is how to apply the mathematics via numerical calculations; you can't simulate reality with a simple equation because almost everything is a time-dependent n-body problem. Just throw it into a computer and it does the work for you.
helloooooo
According to the European news the Japan nuclear crisis is now at a level 7, equal to Chernobyl and to possibly make matters worse there has been an earthquake at magnitude 6.0 about 2 hours ago at a distance that seems to be only around 50 Kms. from the plant or around 35 miles.

The talk is now definitely of extending the exclusion zone to a 40 KM radius. So as many people have noted that's about 640,000 acres.

If you put the google map up for the coast and zoom in until roads can be seen on the satellite map, then scroll down and up the coast, you can see the extent of the damage and the types of farmland in the area to be lost.

Interesting what, post 327. Xyrus2000. Has to say about all the other types of energy related problems.
I would ask people only to consider what would happen if public opinion forced the closure of all nuclear plants as of say the end of the year.
Population levels might drop drastically inside of 12 months.
This is now a quandary and maybe needs a bit more than calculus to solution it.

6.0

2011/04/12 05:07:42

37.000

140.700

10.6

EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
That 6.0 quake is 34 miles from Daiichi and 28 miles from Daiini, depth 6.6 miles.

Fairly strong quake to have that close. I don't imagine that has improved circumstances at the nuclear plants.

Edit: the earlier 6.6 in the same general area (the quake cluster) was 42 miles from Daiichi and 37 miles from Daiini, same depth.
I keep thinking about these problems that they are experiencing over in Japan and I am now starting to believe that they really don't know what to do.
I cant see from an engineering point of view what can be done to stabilize the situation.They in 'my opinion' cant cover the place in concrete as it will still leak radiation etc to the sea as it is too close to it. Not like the Chernobyl situation a long way inland and the situation has not yet got anything like as bad as it can go.

Added to this there is the unknown but ominous presence of what now might be increasing earthquakes.
Today might bring all sorts of new nasty's.
Massive amounts of earth damping, {with neutron absorbers incorporated in it,} on top of it might help,to prevent particle release. remote controlled bulldozer of the Caterpillar D9s would be able to achieve this after a bit of controlled demolition of the ruined structures, then some sort of weatherproof cover but these things aren't going to cool down in a long time.

Imagine a situation like this if it had been created by the Aztecs and the US congress today was still working on a long term solution for it.Frightening!!
Looks like NOAA won't have to have rolling one month closures of NWS offices with the final budget agreement. Originally the Operations, Research, and Facilities budget was to be cut by $450 million. The final agreement cuts $115 million.

However

Originally there were no cuts to the Procurement, Acquisition and Construction budget, but now it is cut $849 million. However, this year the budget request was for an increase of $831 million for such programs as GOES-R and polar orbiting satellites.

Think it is safe to say we will never have a replacement for QUIKSCAT.
343. P451
Good Morning. Good to see the severe weather threat has finally passed for most.

Seems the Mid-Atlantic into the North East is in for a pounding.

344. P451
The Islands are getting a huge moisture plume today.

345. P451
346. P451
Something about Japan's accident that is incalculable and untraceable is this thought:

Radioactive particles in the ocean. Algae absorbs them. Small fish eats algae. Larger fish eat smaller fish many at that. This predatory food chain finds itself into fish that travel. Those fish are harvested 1000s of miles away. Fishery packages those fish and sends them to CA. CA trucks them to Iowa. Family buys fish at market. Child ends up with some form of cancer five years later.

This can and will happen. It has happened with Chernobyl.

While the "experts" claim that only 10% of Chernobyl's radiation was released at Fukushima one thing is certain: Chernobyl's operators never dumped millions of gallons of highly radioactive water into the sea.

So while Fukushima never had (at least that we know of) that major roaring out of control fire that helped spew radiation so much quicker and with so much more force that Chernobyl did. Fukushima is doing something Chernobyl did not.

The consequences of such need more focus and could prove to be far more deadly over time and affect people quite a further distance away than the exclusion zone.


Just...food for thought. Just don't make it fish that comes from anywhere in the western Pacific.

Good morning,everybody :)
348. IKE
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. April 11 (BestWire) %u2014 Regulators approved a statewide average
18.8% increase for Florida homeowners insured by State Farm, less than what the
insurer, which is reducing its exposure in Florida, had sought.

While the
rate change is less than the 27.7% increase State Farm asked for, the approved
increase is an "important step to remain viable in this marketplace," State Farm
spokesman Michael Grimes said.

The amended rate filings are "reflective
of both a rate need by the company as well as cost-drivers in the system,"
Insurance Commissioner Kevin McCarty said in a statement. "State Farm provided
actuarial support for these new rates through data submitted in their amended
rate filing, and through responses to Office questions during the public
hearings conducted on Feb. 15 in Tallahassee."

In a separate filing, the
Office of Insurance Regulation granted State Farm a statewide average 62%
increase for homes that are rented to others. State Farm had sought a 96%
average increase for its rental dwelling program.

The new rates will take
effect July 15 for renewals. The company currently has some 632,000 personal and
commercial residential insurance policies in Florida, Grimes said.
349. P451
A little perspective.






Although this of course doesn't account for plume travels at all. Wind blows just right and you're talking temporary non-declared exclusion zones a lot further. Especially into the sea. I don't buy this "It's fine. Pacific dilutes it no problem." crap.

350. P451
Quoting IKE:
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. April 11 (BestWire) — Regulators approved a statewide average
18.8% increase for Florida homeowners insured by State Farm, less than what the
insurer, which is reducing its exposure in Florida, had sought.

While the
rate change is less than the 27.7% increase State Farm asked for, the approved
increase is an "important step to remain viable in this marketplace," ........


In other words, we will take your money to "insure" you, but if you actually run the risk of needing our help, go f- yourself.

Just wonderful. A little government help would be nice. Our government wonders why our nation is collapsing financially? Gee whiz I wonder why! Is it because nobody can AFFORD anything anymore? So if you can't afford anything you don't buy anything? And those businesses go broke?

I wonder why this has happened.... could it be twin trillion dollar wars? Nah, couldn't be. Let's get into a few more and see what happens!

/rant (before I really go off).

351. IKE
P451....that's exactly what Allstate told me years ago.....have a claim and we'll cancel you.

I agree the nation is collapsing financially. It just cost too much to live. You have to make six-figure money a year to have a chance OR be poor with a handful of kids so the Government can give you thousands of dollars annually.

................................................. .................................................. ..


I had .03 inches of rain last night! WOOHOO!
fuji #1 alittle soft lotus to break in a beautiful day http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EMiJOGiaaEY&NR=1&fe ature=fvwp
353. IKE
5 day QPF....


OR be poor with a handful of kids so the Government can give you thousands of dollars annually.

I don't think that option should be mentioned in the same sentence as having a six figure income.
post 346- P451

thank you, much better than I could've said it

g'morning dayshift

Noting:-349. P451 and the other posts by same.

In order to do anything positive in this world it's necessary to separate 'reality from delusion,' I am so glad that You can post maps etc. which can be shown to the sceptical.
The main thing/problem with a food chain, is that its a CHAIN, and you can either break it or be part of it. you can break it on land with exclusion zones, from a human point of view but you can't break it at sea unless you built a waterproof wall round it, leaks are a problem and can't in this case be stopped.
Leaks are also going to be a problem on land as birds will fly and worms will crawl and caterpillars will turn to buterflys, most of these things will be eaten by anything from ants,locusts, etc. to birds which will be eaten etc.etc.Any broadleaf plants will collect this radiation and be instrumental in passing the radiation on just like the do with herbicides etc.

The problem is so massive that it cant easily be grasped and its not like Russia and the USA, these people have not got many places to go, Japan is a bit like California in size with 125 million people and they haven't got the rest of the USA to migrate to without question.
Quoting IKE:
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. April 11 (BestWire) %u2014 Regulators approved a statewide average
18.8% increase for Florida homeowners insured by State Farm, less than what the
insurer, which is reducing its exposure in Florida, had sought.

While the
rate change is less than the 27.7% increase State Farm asked for, the approved
increase is an "important step to remain viable in this marketplace," State Farm
spokesman Michael Grimes said.

As I said yesterday, State Farm made a measly $1.8 billion in profit in 2010, and that's not much more than double their profit for 2009. How is a company supposed to make do on a lousy $4.93 million in daily profit? How can it possibly "remain viable in the marketplace" on a paltry profit of only $205,000 an hour? $3,400 a minute?

Thank God the state's insurance regulators saw fit to look out for State Farm. One shudders to think of what would happen without that 62% premium increase for owners of rental properties...
Great Information on here today.

I'm glad the storms sweeping into FL today look weaker.

Why are polititians afraid to raises taxes, but let gas prices flucutate wildly and crush our economy on a daily basis? Makes no sense to me.

They want to build houses to create jobs, but we have too many houses already... hence the drop in value. We need to stoke the green economy! PV farms are growing, but slowly.
Quoting Neapolitan:

As I said yesterday, State Farm made a measly $1.8 billion in profit in 2010, and that's not much more than double their profit for 2009. How is a company supposed to make do on a lousy $4.93 million in daily profit? How can it possibly "remain viable in the marketplace" on a paltry profit of only $205,000 an hour? $3,400 a minute?

Thank God the state's insurance regulators saw fit to look out for State Farm. One shudders to think of what would happen without that 62% premium increase for owners of rental properties...


Funny you guys are talking about State Farm. I just got HOSED big time by this company. NEVER AGAIN will I get auto insurance from State Farm.
....aaahhhh....I just LOVE the sound of cannon fire in the morning...
"HOUSTON (AP) - Oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp. on Thursday posted the largest annual profit by a U.S. company%u2014$39.5 billion%u2014even as earnings for the last quarter of 2006 declined 4 percent. The 2006 profit topped Exxon Mobil's own previous record of $36.13 billion set in 2005."



Link

39.5 billion??? One Oil Company. Thats just for 2007. These numbers are there every year.
362. DDR
FOR THE PERIOD TODAY UNTIL MIDNIGHT:
TRINIDAD,TOBAGO AND THE Windward Islands
Partly cloudy with isolated showers and the chance
of the isolated thundershower, becoming settled by
late afternoon to give a mostly fair night.

Here's a little something to get the day started as we all know how depressing the blog becomes sometimes!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zN3cXXHxSrU
If you dis like your insurance company then it's easy switch to someone else. We had Statefarm and let me tell you they cancelled our insurance because we have a beach house on the beach and didn't tell us about it. We found out because we tried to pay our bill and was notified that we were dropped because it's such high risk having an house on the beach.
Another hot day with a 4th day in a row of 90 plus. Hit 91 Saturday then 93 both Sunday and Monday. Not only is it hot but we have summertime humidity in place.
Quoting IKE:
5 day QPF....




Well, the week started out nice enough, but unfortunately dreary and cooler conditions will return to the Northeast for the next couple of days.

That is the story of spring: flirtations with pleasant weather, only to be ripped away in an instant.

Just take a look at Monday. All of these cities had their warmest day so far in 2011: New York City (81), Philadelphia (83), Albany (81), Syracuse (85), Newark (87) and Boston (72). Apologies to portions of Long Island and coastal New England who missed out on this shot of warmth!

So, what atmospheric feature is causing you to say "why can't we keep our nice weather from Monday?"

The same cold front which brought severe storms and tornadoes to the Midwest over the weekend will push off the Northeast coast by Tuesday morning. That means we should be all in the clear, right?

No so fast. Unfortunately a piece of upper-level energy moved through the Tennessee and Ohio valleys on Monday, helping to induce another area of low pressure on the tail end of the aforementioned cold front.

This area of low pressure will lift northward along the boundary and track through the Northeast from Tuesday through Wednesday. You can see this depicted on the image at the top right.

Next, we will first take a look at the forecast for the next couple of days and then see what the rest of the week will bring us
Quoting RastaSteve:
If you dis like your insurance company then it's easy switch to someone else. We had Statefarm and let me tell you they cancelled our insurance because we have a beach house on the beach and didn't tell us about it. We found out because we tried to pay our bill and was notified that we were dropped because it's such high risk having an house on the beach.


Insurance is such a scam. They want your money, but the heck with you if something happens to your asset that you paid to have insured. No that goes to State Farms 1.8 billion dollar profit.

I just got screwed out of $15K on my vechicle because the refuse to total it. The accident wasn't my fault. They tell me it's still worth $23K, but the computer system, front axle, left driver's side door, and a 5 by 5 foot section of my car frame FROM ANOTHER CAR in a junk yard all had to be replaced. They refuse to test my transmission. They told me steel transmissions are undestructable. My car wouldn't shift gears after the accident. I am happy that this adjuster was telling me this over the phone, if I had been face to face with the SOB, I'd have assualt charges pressed on me.
Quoting ILwthrfan:
"HOUSTON (AP) - Oil giant Exxon Mobil Corp. on Thursday posted the largest annual profit by a U.S. company%u2014$39.5 billion%u2014even as earnings for the last quarter of 2006 declined 4 percent. The 2006 profit topped Exxon Mobil's own previous record of $36.13 billion set in 2005."



Link

39.5 billion??? One Oil Company. Thats just for 2007. These numbers are there every year.

There's nothing wrong with making a healthy profit, of course; that's why corporations exist. But there's something depressingly familiar and anti-patriotic about making such obscene profits at the expense of the nation's economic recovery. You can call it free-market capitalism if you wish--but I call it old-fashioned greed. Greed by the oil producers, greed by the oil traders.

(Of course, here's where someone will step in to tell us again that government makes more from oil than the oil companies do. That's debatable, but even if absolutely true, how does that in any way absolve those becoming hugely rich off the backs of others? Simply put, how are tens of millions of dollars per hour in net profit justified when so many are hurting economically?)
postt 366- JASON

you have to give credit to people when you copy their work. Tell the name of the person who wrote that.
Quoting aquak9:
postt 366- JASON

you have to give credit to people when you copy their work. Tell the name of the person who wrote that.


LOL! Accuweather!
Quoting Neapolitan:

There's nothing wrong with making a healthy profit, of course; that's why corporations exist. But there's something depressingly familiar and anti-patriotic about making such obscene profits at the expense of the nation's economic recovery. You can call it free-market capitalism if you wish--but I call it old-fashioned greed. Greed by the oil producers, greed by the oil traders.

(Of course, here's where someone will step in to tell us again that government makes more from oil than the oil companies do. That's debatable, but even if absolutely true, how does that in any way absolve those becoming hugely rich off the backs of others? Simply put, how are tens of millions of dollars per hour in net profit justified when so many are hurting economically?)


I guess it will always boil down to the ethics of man, which just leaves too much to be desired. To me, greed has always been man's strongest quality. We always want more often times not thinking of the repercussions of what it may bring to others.

Sarcasm flag...lol Maybe the whole "2012" idea is turning point in a way that we WILL obliterate ourselves if we do not change the way we do some of things we do here on earth. One of the positives that we can take away from this Japan crisis is that we can learn from it. We are posioning the earth in so many horrid ways. It will catch up to us.
Quoting Neapolitan:

There's nothing wrong with making a healthy profit, of course; that's why corporations exist. But there's something depressingly familiar and anti-patriotic about making such obscene profits at the expense of the nation's economic recovery. You can call it free-market capitalism if you wish--but I call it old-fashioned greed. Greed by the oil producers, greed by the oil traders.

(Of course, here's where someone will step in to tell us again that government makes more from oil than the oil companies do. That's debatable, but even if absolutely true, how does that in any way absolve those becoming hugely rich off the backs of others? Simply put, how are tens of millions of dollars per hour in net profit justified when so many are hurting economically?)



I would ask what percentage of total revenues does this profit represent. It they have $80B in revenue and that's their profit, I'd agree with you. But if that is 3% of their total revenue, then I'd disagree.

Exxon employs tens of thousands of people, many pension plans and stockholders benefit greatly from a healthy Exxon, etc. Overall, I'd say they're more of a help to the economy than a hindrance.

Also, when you factor in how many gallons of gas Exxon sells per year, I'm guessing the per gallon cost of that profit wouldn't help our bottom line all that much.
Quoting BobinTampa:



I would ask what percentage of total revenues does this profit represent. It they have $80B in revenue and that's their profit, I'd agree with you. But if that is 3% of their total revenue, then I'd disagree.

Exxon employs tens of thousands of people, many pension plans and stockholders benefit greatly from a healthy Exxon, etc. Overall, I'd say they're more of a help to the economy than a hindrance.

Also, when you factor in how many gallons of gas Exxon sells per year, I'm guessing the per gallon cost of that profit wouldn't help our bottom line all that much.


How about 383 billion in the year 2010. Oh this will help isolate the problem a little better too.

Link

"This trend continues today.

Between 1992 to 2007, the last year included in the data, the income of the 400 richest Americans rose 637% to the average $345 million mark. During that same period, their effective tax rate declined by over one-third, from a peak tax rate of nearly 30% to 16.6%. Meanwhile, their share of all adjusted gross income increased from 0.52% to 1.59% over that same period. In other words, in a nation of over 300 million people, the 400 richest Americans accounted for nearly 1.6% of all income earned in 2007.
See full article from DailyFinance"



This graph also over-exagerates the average of everybody else. There are better graphs on the link.

ILwthrfan what kind of car do you have?
Quoting BobinTampa:



I would ask what percentage of total revenues does this profit represent. It they have $80B in revenue and that's their profit, I'd agree with you. But if that is 3% of their total revenue, then I'd disagree.

Exxon employs tens of thousands of people, many pension plans and stockholders benefit greatly from a healthy Exxon, etc. Overall, I'd say they're more of a help to the economy than a hindrance.

Also, when you factor in how many gallons of gas Exxon sells per year, I'm guessing the per gallon cost of that profit wouldn't help our bottom line all that much.

Fact A: the price of gasoline affects nearly every single segment of our society. When gasoline costs more, nearly everything else costs more.

Fact B: the more things cost during a fragile economic recovery, the less likely that recovery is to take hold, and/or the longer a full recovery will take.

Fact C: knowingly escalating gasoline prices in an effort to wring out even more billions in profit during such a recovery is, therefore, illogical--and more than a little unpatriotic.

Now, some can throw in the whole "but Big Oil provides employment for so many people" argument. Two things about that: a) most of those saying that are the same ones who complain the loudest about the size of government--and government is a far larger employer than all the oil companies combined, so that makes the argument a little less than honest. And b) those obscene profits are net profits; as such, I contend that roughly the same number of people would be employed by the oil industry were those profits not quite so obscene. That is, unless your argument would be that if, say, ExxonMobil only made $2,000,0000 net profit every hour, they'd be forced into making drastic personnel cuts--and then I'd simply say you were disconnected from reality.
Good Morning, Wunderfriends, according to this article, just because Fukushima is now at Defcon 7 (the worst), they're going to continue doing things the way they have been:

"Even before this, we had considered this a very serious incident so, in that sense, there will be no big change in the way we deal with it just because it has been designated level 7," an agency official said.

....hmmm....
Link

Just a note,as I haven't seen anybody else comment on it but:-

If you have a profit of 39.5 Billion,

You have a population of about 320, Million.

Then you divide the profit by the population of the USA?

Then according to my abacus which might be a bit faulty on these huge numbers,then you get a profit of about. $1234, / head of the USA.{strange sequence,}

I think I got all the nought's in the right places and the us values for these numbers.
379. Jax82
Very scary line of t-storms approaching the Jacksonville area (sarcasm flag up).
Quoting PlazaRed:

Just a note,as I haven't seen anybody else comment on it but:-

If you have a profit of 39.5 Billion,

You have a population of about 320, Million.

Then you divide the profit by the population of the USA?

Then according to my abacus which might be a bit faulty on these huge numbers,then you get a profit of about. $1234, / head of the USA.{strange sequence,}

I think I got all the nought's in the right places and the us values for these numbers.


your math is wrong. it would be $123.45 per person. And that doesn't factor in profits from overseas operations. So the total number is much less than that.
Quoting BobinTampa:


why so angry Neo? No wonder people think you come off as a condescending pr--k. What is an acceptable profit that you think Exxon should make? And, how much would that effect the cost of living?

Also, how much of Exxon's profit comes from American gasoline sales and how much from abroad?

The government employee argument is pretty ridiculous. If you can't figure out the benefits of private sector employees v. government employees than you're the one who is detached from reality.




But you said yourself that there is a limit to how much profit you'd consider appropriate. I believe you said if Exxon made $40 billion and "they have $80B in revenue and that's their profit, I'd agree with you."

So, it seems to me that you two simply disagree on the number, not on the principle. You and Nea maybe aren't as different as you think...

(Tip: name-calling rarely convinces the other side to see your point of view and, aside from maybe a few of the teenagers in the room, impresses no one...)
Quoting BobinTampa:



I would ask what percentage of total revenues does this profit represent. It they have $80B in revenue and that's their profit, I'd agree with you. But if that is 3% of their total revenue, then I'd disagree.

Exxon employs tens of thousands of people, many pension plans and stockholders benefit greatly from a healthy Exxon, etc. Overall, I'd say they're more of a help to the economy than a hindrance.

Also, when you factor in how many gallons of gas Exxon sells per year, I'm guessing the per gallon cost of that profit wouldn't help our bottom line all that much.


Exxon 2010 Annual Report

Excerpts from pages 99-100

US Sales = 115.906 Billion
US Income Before Taxes = 7.711 Billion
US Federal Income Taxes = 1.319 Billion
US Federal Income Tax Rate = 17.1%

Non US Sales = 254.219 Billion
Non US Income Before Taxes = 45.248 Billion
Non US Income Taxes = 19.902 Billion
Non US Income Tax Rate = 43.9%
Quoting BobinTampa:


your math is wrong. it would be $123.45 per person. And that doesn't factor in profits from overseas operations. So the total number is much less than that.


Thanks for putting me right on that one I was not too sure how you work out the millions and billions.

Still a good profit per person though,I'd have been very happy with it if I was a MD.

$123.45, Even stranger sequence!
Quoting eddy12:
ILwthrfan what kind of car do you have?


2010 Ford Fusion Sport. 35mpg
Quoting MrMixon:


But you said yourself that there is a limit to how much profit you'd consider appropriate. I believe you said if Exxon made $40 billion and "they have $80B in revenue and that's their profit, I'd agree with you."

So, it seems to me that you two simply disagree on the number, not on the principle. You and Nea maybe aren't as different as you think...

(Tip: name-calling rarely convinces the other side to see your point of view and, aside from maybe a few of the teenagers in the room, impresses no one...)


No name calling at all. Just responding to the tone of Neo's post and pointing out how he comes across. He seems to assume that anyone he is debating is intellectually inferior to him based solely on the fact that they disagree with him.
Complete Update





Quoting ILwthrfan:


2010 Ford Fusion Sport. 35mpg


Was State Farm your insurance company or the company of the person that hit you? Did you take the car to the dealership to be repaired?

You have the right to take the car to the repair shop of your choice.
Quoting Neapolitan:

As I said yesterday, State Farm made a measly $1.8 billion in profit in 2010, and that's not much more than double their profit for 2009. How is a company supposed to make do on a lousy $4.93 million in daily profit? How can it possibly "remain viable in the marketplace" on a paltry profit of only $205,000 an hour? $3,400 a minute?

Thank God the state's insurance regulators saw fit to look out for State Farm. One shudders to think of what would happen without that 62% premium increase for owners of rental properties...
What a poor and poverty struck company..Maybe a donation or two will pull them out of there financial doldrums...:) Mornin Neap.. They have paid out a lot of money the past 15 years or so with all the natural disasters that have occurred..
Quoting BobinTampa:


Was State Farm your insurance company or the company of the person that hit you? Did you take the car to the dealership to be repaired?

You have the right to take the car to the repair shop of your choice.


I had State Farm Insurance. Also the guy that hit me only had 25k in coverage. There was 8 vehicles involved in the accident. Problem is I commute a combined 100 miles back and forth to work everyday. The Ford Dealership in the town I work in didn't have an autobody repair shop. I had to either have it towed at my own expense at a 100 miles to the dealership I bought it at or find somewhere in town to fix it, that tow was included in my insurance.



ILwthrfan I am guessing the reason they will not replace your transmission is because ford fusions have a bad tranny to begin with, many reports of people having problems with them from the get go.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Fact A: the price of gasoline affects nearly every single segment of our society. When gasoline costs more, nearly everything else costs more.

Fact B: the more things cost during a fragile economic recovery, the less likely that recovery is to take hold, and/or the longer a full recovery will take.

Fact C: knowingly escalating gasoline prices in an effort to wring out even more billions in profit during such a recovery is, therefore, illogical--and more than a little unpatriotic.

Now, some can throw in the whole "but Big Oil provides employment for so many people" argument. Two things about that: a) most of those saying that are the same ones who complain the loudest about the size of government--and government is a far larger employer than all the oil companies combined, so that makes the argument a little less than honest. And b) those obscene profits are net profits; as such, I contend that roughly the same number of people would be employed by the oil industry were those profits not quite so obscene. That is, unless your argument would be that if, say, ExxonMobil only made $2,000,0000 net profit every hour, they'd be forced into making drastic personnel cuts--and then I'd simply say you were disconnected from reality.


The government is a whole different subject.

If you employee people there then you are really buying votes. HMMM

The whole city of Houston would shut down if you quit using Gasoline.

Just deal with it.

If you can't afford to pay for gas I would invite you to buy a bike or just start walking its way cheaper.

Going green actually loses jobs.

You can google that if you want.

Quoting BobinTampa:


No name calling at all. Just responding to the tone of Neo's post and pointing out how he comes across. He seems to assume that anyone he is debating is intellectually inferior to him based solely on the fact that they disagree with him.


That is truth!
Quoting ILwthrfan:


I had State Farm Insurance. Also the guy that hit me only had 25k in coverage. There was 8 vehicles involved in the accident. Problem is I commute a combined 100 miles back and forth to work everyday. The Ford Dealership in the town I work in didn't have an autobody repair shop. I had to either have it towed at my own expense at a 100 miles to the dealership I bought it at or find somewhere in town to fix it, that tow was included in my insurance.





They still should have used all new parts. I've never heard of such a new car having to get parts from a junkyard.

I don't know how much them totalling the car would have helped you though unless you have the lease/loan gap coverage.
Quoting DestinJeff:
I still think the first 'u' is a short one, and the second 'u' a long one in Fukushima ... but the media refuses -- I say, I say -- REFUSES to recognize proper Japanese pronunciation!

Anyway, the world was far less combative before the internet. Ever since they put the internet on computers it has been all downhill.

Gas prices are inconsequential. We will pay whatever the hell price they charge us. I haven't seen it mentioned today, but "tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserves" is not a viable option.


SPR may have some affect if it was sold exclusively into the futures market and announced after hours. That would temporarily "break the back" of speculators, however would be damaging to legitimate users of the futures (trucking, airline companies). Some estimates place speculation as 20% of the current prices.
Quoting BobinTampa:


They still should have used all new parts. I've never heard of such a new car having to get parts from a junkyard.

I don't know how much them totalling the car would have helped you though unless you have the lease/loan gap coverage.


It was just the frame of the car that was scrapped from the junk yard. Everything else was given to them from the Ford Delearship. Except the frame they cut out of my vehicle
Quoting BobinTampa:


No name calling at all. Just responding to the tone of Neo's post and pointing out how he comes across. He seems to assume that anyone he is debating is intellectually inferior to him based solely on the fact that they disagree with him.

As I stated before, he's just another disgruntled former government employee who had to learn the hard way that there are those out there that are not only smarter than he is, but also younger, more technologically savvy, and more opened minded to different ideas instead of succumbing to the outlandish, radical, political ideologies he continues to dispense. In other words, when he sees someone as different from him with different values, ideas, customs, and ways of thinking, the fear, defense system immediately kicks in and manifests itself as that angry, miserable, condescending arrogant self many people see. I get the impression that he angry at some government employees now, but craves more and bigger government. At the same time though, he gets eaten up by the jealousy of those who happen to work hard and make profits either from self-employment of working for a successful company within a capitalist society.

Don't worry, you'll get used to it in time and just take it for little value it's worth.
Ilwhtrfan what were your estimates?
Quoting hydrus:
What a poor and poverty struck company..Maybe a donation or two will pull them out of there financial doldrums...:) Mornin Neap..

Good morning. Well, they do get a donation of sorts courtesy of Florida's insurance commissioner allowing them to jack up rental property premiums by 62%. After all, we really need All State to remain "viable in the marketplace"--meaning that any net profit less than $5 million a day is simply unacceptable.

On another note, I'm going to try to no longer engage those who can't discuss things calmly and politely, and instead resort to name-calling whenever they sense they're on the wrong end of any disagreement. I was on debate squads all-through high school and college, and much as we wanted to do so at times, cursing at the opposing team was always frowned upon--even when the opponent was clearly winning.
Quoting eddy12:
ILwthrfan I am guessing the reason they will not replace your transmission is because ford fusions have a bad tranny to begin with, many reports of people having problems with them from the get go.


They would not even check it, let alone fix it. I have heard about the Tranny problems,for the most part I thought most of those were associated with the 2009 Ford SE? I had put on 50,000 miles on it already and she's been a champion all the way mechanically since I've had her. I was never a big Ford fan, but when I first saw this car in the lot I was going to take it home.
Quoting eddy12:
Ilwhtrfan what were your estimates?


$7,000 estimate. The actual bill as of now is up to $15,000. They are almost finished with it, but agian they are not even going to look at the tranny. Live and Learn I guess. Should of know better than to feed the Pig.
Neo I have caught some of the facts you post on here to be false and never have you ever said I stand corrected if you dispute something I post here as false and can prove it I will admit I was wrong and thank you for correcting me that is how we get more knowledge.
Quoting eddy12:
Neo I have caught some of the facts you post on here to be false and never have you ever said I stand corrected if you dispute something I post here as false and can prove it I will admit I was wrong and thank you for correcting me that is how we get more knowledge.


Nobody's perfect but Nea gets his facts right as good as anyone else on this blog and he is always citing and linking his sources which enables the reader to come their own conclusions.
ILwthr fan sorry to hear that but on the other side for all the damage you descibed didn't 7000 dollar seem a little cheap.
Quoting eddy12:
ILwthr fan sorry to hear that but on the other side for all the damage you descibed didn't 7000 dollar seem a little cheap.


Of course, but the adjuster was the head #*$& in charge. It didn't matter what we thought. He blew smoke up our pipe when we questioned any of the damages he priced out. It was just laughable with his reasoning on the tranny not being need to be tested or checked. Apprieciate the condolences, but I should probably stop crying about insurance. It is a weather blog, and I am bogging the blog down today with this... So apoligies to the crowd for that.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Of course, but the adjuster was the head #*$& in charge. It didn't matter what we thought. He blew smoke up our pipe when we questioned any of the damages he priced out. It was just laughable with his reasoning on the tranny not being need to be tested or checked. Apprieciate the condolences, but I should probably stop crying about insurance. It is a weather blog, and I am bogging the blog down today with this... So apoligies to the crowd for that.


I work in insurance so I don't mind trying to help out a fellow wublogger. do you have the car back already? If so, is it running okay?
Income Gap Between Rich, Poor the Widest Ever
Census Bureau Finds Record Income Equality; Richest 20% of Americans Earn Nearly Half of All Nation's Income

(AP) The income gap between the richest and poorest Americans grew last year to its widest amount on record as young adults and children in particular struggled to stay afloat in the recession.

The top-earning 20 percent of Americans - those making more than $100,000 each year - received 49.4 percent of all income generated in the U.S., compared with the 3.4 percent earned by those below the poverty line, according to newly released census figures. That ratio of 14.5-to-1 was an increase from 13.6 in 2008 and nearly double a low of 7.69 in 1968.

A different measure, the international Gini index, found U.S. income inequality at its highest level since the Census Bureau began tracking household income in 1967. The U.S. also has the greatest disparity among Western industrialized nations.

At the top, the wealthiest 5 percent of Americans, who earn more than $180,000, added slightly to their annual incomes last year, census data show. Families at the $50,000 median level slipped lower.

"Income inequality is rising, and if we took into account tax data, it would be even more," said Timothy Smeeding, a University of Wisconsin-Madison professor who specializes in poverty. "More than other countries, we have a very unequal income distribution where compensation goes to the top in a winner-takes-all economy."

Lower-skilled adults ages 18 to 34 had the largest jumps in poverty last year as employers kept or hired older workers for the dwindling jobs available, Smeeding said. The declining economic fortunes have caused many unemployed young Americans to double-up in housing with parents, friends and loved ones, with potential problems for the labor market if they don't get needed training for future jobs, he said.

Rea Hederman Jr., a senior policy analyst at The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank, agreed that census data show families of all income levels had tepid earnings in 2009, with poorer Americans taking a larger hit. "It's certainly going to take a while for people to recover," he said.

The findings are part of a broad array of U.S. census data being released this month that highlight the far-reaching impact of the recent economic meltdown. The effects have ranged from near-historic declines in U.S. mobility and birth rates to delayed marriage and the first drop in the number of illegal immigrants in two decades.

The census figures also come amid heated political debate in the run-up to the Nov. 2 elections over whether Congress should extend expiring Bush-era tax cuts. President Barack Obama wants to extend the tax cuts for individuals making less than $200,000 and joint filers making less than $250,000; Republicans are pushing for tax cuts for everyone, including wealthy Americans.

The 2009 census tabulations, which are based on pre-tax income and exclude capital gains, are adjusted for household size where data are available. Prior analyses of after-tax income made by the wealthiest 1 percent compared to middle- and low-income Americans have also pointed to a widening inequality gap, but only reflect U.S. data as of 2007.

Among the 2009 findings:

--The poorest poor are at record highs. The share of Americans below half the poverty line - $10,977 for a family of four - rose from 5.7 percent in 2008 to 6.3 percent. It was the highest level since the government began tracking that group in 1975.

--The poverty gap between young and old has doubled since 2000, due partly to the strength of Social Security in helping buoy Americans 65 and over. Child poverty is now 21 percent compared with 9 percent for older Americans. In 2000, when child poverty was at 16 percent, elderly poverty stood at 10 percent.

--Safety nets are helping fill health gaps. The percentage of children covered by government-sponsored health insurance such as Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program jumped to 37 percent, or 27.6 million, from 24 percent in 2000. That helped offset steady losses in employer-sponsored insurance.

The 2009 poverty level was set at $21,954 for a family of four, based on an official government calculation that includes only cash income. It excludes noncash aid such as food stamps.

Arloc Sherman, a senior researcher at the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, noted the effects of expanded government programs in cushioning the impact of skyrocketing unemployment. For example, the Census Bureau estimates that 3.6 million people would have been lifted above the poverty line if food stamps were counted - a number that would have reduced the 2009 poverty rate from the official 14.3 percent to 13.2 percent.

Sheldon Danziger, a University of Michigan public policy professor, said while the U.S. has developed policies to combat poverty, it has trouble addressing ever-widening income inequality - even with a growing federal deficit and previous warnings by former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan about soaring executive pay.

An Associated Press-GfK Poll this month found that by 54 percent to 44 percent, most Americans support raising taxes on the highest U.S. earners. Still, many congressional Democrats have expressed wariness about provoking the 44 percent minority so close to Election Day.

"We're pretty good about not talking about income inequality," Danziger said.
Anyways. Looks like Brownsville is knocking on the door to 80 degree water temps, meanwhile the gulf stream off Florida's east coast as spiked up to 86 degrees in Melbourne points south to Miami.

4/11/2011
Atlantic



4/11/2011
Gulf

swoon
Quoting Neapolitan:

Good morning. Well, they do get a donation of sorts courtesy of Florida's insurance commissioner allowing them to jack up rental property premiums by 62%. After all, we really need All State to remain "viable in the marketplace"--meaning that any net profit less than $5 million a day is simply unacceptable.

On another note, I'm going to try to no longer engage those who can't discuss things calmly and politely, and instead resort to name-calling whenever they sense they're on the wrong end of any disagreement. I was on debate squads all-through high school and college, and much as we wanted to do so at times, cursing at the opposing team was always frowned upon--even when the opponent was clearly winning.



you may want to go back and reread my initial post where basically all I did was ask questions. Then reread the tone of your response.

As for State Farm (not Allstate), they actually do lose money in Florida. Almost all homeowners insurance carriers do (mostly due to sinkhole claims). There are plenty of other options for State Farm's policyholders. If they choose to stay with State Farm because they trust the name, why would I care? If they choose a lower premium with another carrier, that's cool too.

State Farm is high on auto insurance here as well. But many people have been with them for years and don't want to switch. Even when the other option is a well-known carrier like Travelers or Hartford. That's their choice though and I don't begrudge them.

NEW BLOG!!!
Quoting BobinTampa:


I work in insurance so I don't mind trying to help out a fellow wublogger. do you have the car back already? If so, is it running okay?




Your insight is greatly apprieciated! I didn't mean any disrespect to your profession. My agent unfortunately just doesn't have the power to do anything for us. The higher keepers are staying firm with thier initial reasoning. What they say goes unfortunately.

I have only drove the vehicle once and that was yesterday for about 5 minutes, so I didn't get a great feel for the car. Nor did I get a chance to use the 4,5,and 6 gear. They still have a tire to replace and I didn't want to put any strain on the old damaged one that was still on there. The car rode smooth but it seemed harder to turn left than right. And the point of impact was right on the left front tire.
Hurricanes heading for the gulf this season will surely put a damper on the economy,gas prices will be in the 5 to 6 dollar range IMO!
ILwthrfan,
Have you contacted your State Farm agent to discuss the issues you're having with the adjuster?

Quoting BobinTampa:
ILwthrfan,
Have you contacted your State Farm agent to discuss the issues you're having with the adjuster?

Yes sir, sure did. Thats when they had upper management contact us for any questions. The result was pretty much "we are not changing our stance on this" Our Agent was not happy with the adjuster, but the agency had the adjusters back so to speak. Claiming he was in the right. Despite the underestimating the damage of the car by $8,000.
Yesterday's magnitude6.2earthquake was epicentered
142miles(~229kilometres) at 191.3degrees(SSW) from FukushimaDaichi
51miles(~82kilometres) at 113.3degrees(ESE) from centralTokyo
Today's magnitude6.0earthquake was epicentered
34miles(~55kilometres) at 212.3degrees(SSW) from FukushimaDaiichi
105miles(~167kilometres) at 31.2(NNE) from centralTokyo
NEW BLOG
Quoting biff4ugo:
Great Information on here today.

I'm glad the storms sweeping into FL today look weaker.

Why are polititians afraid to raises taxes, but let gas prices flucutate wildly and crush our economy on a daily basis? Makes no sense to me.

They want to build houses to create jobs, but we have too many houses already... hence the drop in value. We need to stoke the green economy! PV farms are growing, but slowly.


GREAT POST!! +1000