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Weekend tornado outbreak: 1 EF-4, 2 EF-3s, 6 dead, damage near $300 million

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:09 PM GMT on April 16, 2012

Damage surveys continue in the Plains in the wake of Saturday's major tornado outbreak. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged 110 preliminary tornado reports, with an additional 10 reports from Sunday. At least one tornado was a violent EF-4, which hit mostly unpopulated areas in Ellsworth County, Kansas. The only fatalities from the outbreak occurred in Woodward, Oklahoma, where an EF-3 tornado hit at night after lightning knocked out the town's tornado sirens. Six people were killed, three of them children. A preliminary rating of EF-3 has also been given to a tornado that hit the south and southeast portions of Wichita, Kansas near 10:30 pm CDT Saturday night. The tornado did significant damage to McConnell AFB and to a nearby trailer park. All of the residents of the trailer park were in the trail park's tornado shelter, which undoubtedly saved many lives. Two residents required hospitalization. Damage from the Wichita tornado has been estimated at $283 million.


Figure 1. Radar reflectivity image of the EF-3 tornado that hit the south side of Wichita, Kansas, causing damage estimated at $283 million.


Video 1. Storm chaser video of one of Saturday's impressive tornadoes near Salina, Kansas. At about the 3 minute mark, you'll see what appear to be cows moving very fast in a mighty tail wind.


Video 2. Storm chaser video of the nighttime Wichita, Kansas tornado of April 14, 2012.

New dire language in tornado warnings
National Weather Service offices in several states in the Plains are experimenting this year with new wording in public advisories when a particularly dangerous tornado has touched down. If spotters confirm that a large and damaging tornado is on the ground, the NWS has the option of including some rather dire wording to get the public to take action. About 3/4 of all tornado warnings are false alarms. This primarily occurs because the NWS will issue a warning for a rotating thunderstorm spotted on radar, and these thunderstorms don't always have funnel clouds that reach to the ground. But when spotters actually verify that a tornado is on the ground, and that tornado has a long history of causing damage, issuance of one the new direly-worded advisories may help give the public the message that this tornado is not going to be a false alarm and they better take it seriously. Such an advisory was issued for Saturday's Wichita, Kansas tornado, which turned out to be an EF-3 that caused major but not catastrophic damage. The dire wording of the advisory predicted the type of damage associated with a violent EF-4 or EF-5 tornado, "with complete devastation likely." The damage from this tornado fell short of that mark, but I believe it was a reasonable usage of the new type of advisory:

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1033 PM CDT SAT APR 14 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WEST CENTRAL BUTLER AND EASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

...TORNADO EMERGENCY FOR EAST WICHITA...

AT 1031 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED LARGE...VIOLENT AND EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR MCCONNELL AIR FORCE BASE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE...SPOTTER CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...THIS IS A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION. YOU COULD BE KILLED IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELL
BUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROM THEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASS DEVASTATION IS HIGHLY LIKELY MAKING THE AREA UNRECOGNIZABLE
TO SURVIVORS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...PARK CITY...NORTHEAST WICHITA...ANDOVER...BEL AIRE...KECHI...JABARA AIRPORT AND BENTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TORNADO WITH COMPLETE DEVASTATION LIKELY. YOU COULD BE KILLED IF NOT UNDERGROUND OR IN A TORNADO SHELTER. DO NOT DELAY...SEEK SHELTER NOW! IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE SEEK SHELTER IN AN INTERIOR ROOM OF THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STRUCTURE...OR IF TIME ALLOWS...CONSIDER MOVING TO AN UNDERGROUND SHELTER ELSEWHERE. MOBILE HOMES AND OUTBUILDINGS WILL OFFER NO SHELTER FROM THIS TORNADO.

TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AND CONFIRM AT NIGHT. TAKE COVER NOW.

Jeff Masters
Night tornado
Night tornado
Night tornado in Manchester,OK
Lightning over Houston
Lightning over Houston
A thunderstorm passes through Houston early Monday morning with lots of amazing lightning. I'm probably going to regret getting up to take this photo later today. :). For my live webcam view approxiamtely where this was taken (you can see the webcam in the photo), Click here. For more of my photography, visit my Flickr page.
Storm Damage
Storm Damage
Damage from the storm that came through Thurman, Iowa last night. TV says 70% to 90% of the town is destroyed.

Tornado Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Wow Nino 1&2 have sky rocketed.

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Nino(4) -0.2
Nino(3.4) -0.3
Nino(3) 0.5
Nino(1&2) 1.9

Thanks, Dr. Masters. April; is such an enjoyable month, isn't it? :-\
just read the 6th person has died from those awful tornado's,more still in hospitals with injuries, some critical..cudo's though to the NWS and local weather folks for all the early warnings..people paid attention and were warned and probably alot more lives were saved.
Thanks Dr. Masters. That is some pretty significant wording. I guess they need to start doing that so people take it a little more seriously.
No sleep, feel like I'm on 5 hr energy, radar lighting up like a Christmas tree and I'm nonstop
Possible tornado south of Corpus

Quoting RitaEvac:
Possible tornado south of Corpus



That could be a water spout
Nearly 4 inches an hour run total

Quoting RitaEvac:
Nearly 4 inches an hour run total

gee we sure could use that rain here in Florida, put out some of those fires especially in our northern counties
warnings are going up....SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC007-409-161500-
/O.NEW.KCRP.SV.W.0064.120416T1423Z-120416T1500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
923 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
EXTREME WEST CENTRAL ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EASTERN SAN PATRICIO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 1000 AM CDT

* AT 918 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF TAFT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SINTON...
TAFT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2786 9759 2787 9761 2790 9761 2815 9748
2815 9743 2812 9743 2813 9741 2812 9738
2814 9738 2806 9723 2786 9740 2786 9744
2784 9748
TIME...MOT...LOC 1423Z 212DEG 8KT 2795 9747

$$

HART
I have just watch a video of 2 twin tornado's. I also remember a radar wind relative image posted here on Saturday. How does the atmosphere support 2 tornadoes in the 1 storm? Aren't twin tornadoes super rare?
Cells seem to die out once they get to the Harris county county line, fall apart at the northern ends of Fort Bend, Brazoria, and Galveston county lines
looks like a sub tropical storm is getting it's act together in the north atlantic east of bermuda
WWUS54 KCRP 161449
SVSCRP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
949 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXC273-161500-
/O.CON.KCRP.TO.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120416T1500Z/
KLEBERG-
949 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR CENTRAL
KLEBERG COUNTY...

AT 944 AM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD APPROACHING THE
GROUND. THIS FUNNEL CLOUD WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KLEBERG
COUNTY...OR 16 MILES EAST OF KINGSVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT 10 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RURAL CENTRAL KLEBERG COUNTY...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2739 9764 2739 9767 2739 9768 2740 9770
2756 9765 2755 9742 2739 9757
TIME...MOT...LOC 1448Z 201DEG 7KT 2744 9762

$$

HART
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
328 AM EDT MON APR 16 2012

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035 >038-040-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-171000-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20 NM-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM-
ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST AUGUSTINE FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
ST AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL 20 NM TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-HAMILTON-
SUWANNEE-COLUMBIA-BAKER-NASSAU-DUVAL-UNION-BRADFO RD-CLAY-ST JOHNS-
GILCHRIST-ALACHUA-PUTNAM-FLAGLER-MARION-COFFEE-JE FF DAVIS-BACON-
APPLING-WAYNE-ATKINSON-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAN D GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-ECHOLS-CLINCH-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
328 AM EDT MON APR 16 2012

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY.

AREAS OF SMOKE FROM THE COUNTY LINE WILDFIRE IN NORTHERN COLUMBIA
COUNTY WILL GENERALLY REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE FIRE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
IN JACKSONVILLE WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV/JAX.

$$
Notice the cells west of Galveston going NW and the cells on the mainland going NE, there's your boundary location

Looks like things are strating to calm down a bit for our friends on the Island...................HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
536 AM AST MON APR 16 2012

AMZ710>745-PRZ001>013-170945-
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTHEAST-SOUTHEAST-EASTERN INTERIOR-
NORTH CENTRAL-CENTRAL INTERIOR-PONCE AND VICINITY-NORTHWEST-
WESTERN INTERIOR-MAYAGUEZ AND VICINITY-SOUTHWEST-CULEBRA-VIEQUES-
THE NEARSHORE AND OFF SHORE ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS-
536 AM AST MON APR 16 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

LATEST DATA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ATLANTIC BUOY NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THE SAN JUAN BUOY THIS MORNING...CONTINUED TO SUGGEST
THAT THE WIND DRIVEN NORTH NORTHEASTERLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COASTLINES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS WILL RESULT IN FREQUENT PERIODS OF SIGNIFICANT BREAKING
WAVES WITH A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11 AM AST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

REPORTS ABOUT SIGNIFICANT MARINE CONDITIONS WOULD BE GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

$$
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
956 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...

CALCASIEU RIVER NEAR SALT WATER BARRIER

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN
LOUISIANA...

CALCASIEU RIVER AT OLD TOWN BAY

LAC019-170456-
/O.EXT.KLCH.FL.W.0064.000000T0000Z-120418T1330Z/
/OTBL1.1.WT.120415T0224Z.120416T1200Z.120417T1330 Z.NO/
956 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...FLOOD WARNING EXTENDED UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE FLOOD WARNING
CONTINUES FOR
THE CALCASIEU RIVER AT OLD TOWN BAY.
* UNTIL WEDNESDAY MORNING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 7:00 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 4.3 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 4.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
* IMPACT...AT 4.0 FEET...MINOR FLOODING OF GOOS FERRY ROAD WILL
OCCUR.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 9315 3032 9320 3027 9318 3030 9308 3033 9309

$$
Flooding event

Quoting RitaEvac:
Flooding event



That needs to move further north!! Doesn't look like Houston will get much rain from this. Unless something changes, most of the rain will be south of Houston
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Thanks Dr. Masters. That is some pretty significant wording. I guess they need to start doing that so people take it a little more seriously.


I am glad they've finally started saying it how it actually is. That's exactly what happens.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


That needs to move further north!! Doesn't look like Houston will get much rain from this. Unless something changes, most of the rain will be south of Houston


Don't forget about the heating of the day, we'll see what happens
Quoting AussieStorm:
I have just watch a video of 2 twin tornado's. I also remember a radar wind relative image posted here on Saturday. How does the atmosphere support 2 tornadoes in the 1 storm? Aren't twin tornadoes super rare?



It's rare, but not unprecedented.

I think that video was seriously two separate tornadoes, and not just what you usually label "multi-vortex".

I mean he pans left and there's a big one, and pans right and there's a smaller one.

I've seen a few storm chase videos on The Weather Channel like that.

They'll be on the road and look one way, and there's a tornado, and then turn around and look the other way and there is another tornado.

So it has happened.

Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Thanks Dr. Masters. That is some pretty significant wording. I guess they need to start doing that so people take it a little more seriously.


The wording is impressive. What I remember is the "THE EXTREME DEVASTATION WILL RENDER THE AREA UNRECOGNIZABLE TO SURVIVORS". Made me want to hide even though I am nearly 2,000km away from the tornadoes.

Can only imagine reading that in a path of a tornado.
Now somebody last night posted where the front stalls out along the TX/LA coast and brings rain for the next 48hrs as a low pressure forms in the western gulf along the front and moves NE riding the coast. After seeing shower activity wayyyy back near San Antonio, makes me wonder if that is going to happen. Clouds have thicken way back in SC TX
Radar estimate at Corpus is up to 16.5 inches of total accumulation.


Should have seen last night near Zapata county Texas.

2 consecutive hours of 5.8 to 5.9 inches per hour rainfall rates estimated by radar.

I think it was officially raining over 3 inches per hour, according to the flash flood warning's description.
Quoting RTSplayer:



It's rare, but not unprecedented.

I think that video was seriously two separate tornadoes, and not just what you usually label "multi-vortex".

I mean he pans left and there's a big one, and pans right and there's a smaller one.

I've seen a few storm chase videos on The Weather Channel like that.

They'll be on the road and look one way, and there's a tornado, and then turn around and look the other way and there is another tornado.

So it has happened.


Actually the video i watch, the tornadoes were right beside each other... maybe 1/2-1 mile apart. I'll post it so you can see.

Quoting AussieStorm:

Actually the video i watch, the tornadoes were right beside each other... maybe 1/2-1 mile apart. I'll post it so you can see.


I've already seen it.


He actually manages to get them both in one shot a few times.


You can also get multi-vortex and horizontal vortex tornadoes orbiting the main one withing a few dozen to a few hundred yards.

Personally, I think all "wedge" tornadoes are probably multi-vortex, you just can't necessarily see it from the outside.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Now somebody last night posted where the front stalls out along the TX/LA coast and brings rain for the next 48hrs as a low pressure forms in the western gulf along the front and moves NE riding the coast. After seeing shower activity wayyyy back near San Antonio, makes me wonder if that is going to happen. Clouds have thicken way back in SC TX


That is a good sign for us. Maybe some widespread inch per hour precip will develop
Quoting yqt1001:


The wording is impressive. What I remember is the "THE EXTREME DEVASTATION WILL RENDER THE AREA UNRECOGNIZABLE TO SURVIVORS". Made me want to hide even though I am nearly 2,000km away from the tornadoes.

Can only imagine reading that in a path of a tornado.


Lol you and I both. I don't even know what would be going through my mind in the path of a tornado on the ground and my weather radio telling me I am going to die and my house will disintegrate.
big time rotation

Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Lol you and I both. I don't even know what would be going through my mind in the path of a tornado on the ground and my weather radio telling me I am going to die and my house will disintegrate.


But the NWS needs to use words like that to get it through peoples heads that it is a serious situation and they need to take cover. So many people just blow that kind of stuff off and then it is to late.
Quoting yqt1001:


The wording is impressive. What I remember is the "THE EXTREME DEVASTATION WILL RENDER THE AREA UNRECOGNIZABLE TO SURVIVORS". Made me want to hide even though I am nearly 2,000km away from the tornadoes.

Can only imagine reading that in a path of a tornado.


I read those words and a shiver went right down my spine and I got instant goosebumps, then I turned on my radio scanner app on my phone and heard those same words. I was um, pooping my pants and i'm 14,000km's away.

I guess they really need to get the message into peoples heads how dangerous the tornado is. Just wish the 6 people that died in Woodward, OK had heard those words and get to a safe place.
Even in the best of circumstances, sometimes the Weather can overwhelm the best of Mans inventiveness.

We pray for the lost and their families...and for all who suffered loss from this latest system.


Have a weather alert radio at the ready for Severe Storm Season is here.

Long time lurker first time poster. I actually live in Portland, TX. It has been raining cats and dogs since 5 am this morning. What a way to wake up, step outside and have the tornado alarms go off. Sheltered for a while, came back out, sheltered again when the sky went green. I can't go anywhere, streets are like rivers. I've been through a hurricane before and never saw it come close to like it was raining earlier. I am not going anywhere for a while. My rain gage goes up to 6 inches and it has been overflowwing for a couple of hours now. I hope this "training" stops soon...
Quoting JoninCCTX:
Long time lurker first time poster. I actually live in Portland, TX. It has been raining cats and dogs since 5 am this morning. What a way to wake up, step outside and have the tornado alarms go off. Sheltered for a while, came back out, sheltered again when the sky went green. I can't go anywhere, streets are like rivers. I've been through a hurricane before and never saw it come close to like it was raining earlier. I am not going anywhere for a while. My rain gage goes up to 6 inches and it has been overflowwing for a couple of hours now. I hope this "training" stops soon...


Are the cats and dogs fighting or they getting alone fine, lol.

Stay safe mate. I'm watching it from afar, the best place to be in wild weather.
12z Surface Analysis has low down to 1004 mbs.

Some areas of coastal TX are approaching 14". Amazing as this is on the level of TS Alison rains. RitaEvac stay safe man as these rains are heading your way. You could easly get 6" to 10" from this event.
37 JoninCCTX: ...in Portland, TX. It has been raining cats and dogs...
38 AussieStorm: Are the cats and dogs fighting...

No problemo. May not know how to keep a fight from starting, but sure know how to end one.

. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . The Reign of Frogs!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Some areas of coastal TX are approaching 14". Amazing as this is on the level of TS Alison rains. RitaEvac stay safe man as these rains are heading your way. You could easly get 6" to 10" from this event.


So you think we will get 6"-10" of rain in the greater Houston area? These storms seem to be training along the cost (south of 59 corridor) and a few hours north of 59 but almost everything is south of I-10.

If we get 6"+ out of this, I will be ecstatic but I don't know if that will actually happen. I can only hope it does though :D
Quoting StormTracker2K:

The radar-estimated rains are off a good bit, actually.

And Allison-level rains still would have a LONG way to go.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


So you think we will get 6"-10" of rain in the greater Houston area? These storms seem to be training along the cost (south of 59 corridor) and a few hours north of 59 but almost everything is south of I-10.

If we get 6"+ out of this, I will be ecstatic but I don't know if that will actually happen. I can only hope it does though :D

Based on the NWS discussion, the rain amount depends on if the front backs up as a warm front, stays stalled, or ends up pushing off the coast.

Backs up as a warm front - widespread 1" amounts possible, with isolated totals in the 3-5" range.
stays stalled - areas north of the boundary will be lucky to get 0.5", areas south of the boundary are looking at 1-3".
pushes off - get your sprinklers, you're going to need them after getting <1".
After the Tornadoes now Oklahoma has a magnitude 5 Earthquake, been busy lately.
DATE links are into the IRIS WILBER system where you can see seismograms and request datasets.




DATE and TIME (UTC)
LAT-ITUDE
LONG-ITUDE
MAG-NITUDE
DEPTH km
REGION


16-APR-2012 08:12:00
35.56
-96.76
5.0
5.0
OKLAHOMA
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


But the NWS needs to use words like that to get it through peoples heads that it is a serious situation and they need to take cover. So many people just blow that kind of stuff off and then it is to late.


But at the same time, they should be used sparingly and only when appropriate. If not, we will begin to recreate the same problem that necessitated the harsher wording to begin with.
The National Weather Service In Houston/Galveston Has Issued A

* Flash Flood Watch For A Portion Of Southeast Texas... Including
The Following Counties... Brazoria... Galveston... Jackson...
Matagorda And Wharton.

* Until 7 PM CDT This Evening

* Overnight Showers And Thunderstorms Have Produced 5 To 7 Inches
Of Rain For Areas Along And Near Highway 35 Through This
Morning. A Stationary Surface Boundary Along With Favorable
Upper Level Dynamics Is Expected To Help Keep Activity Going In
And Around These Locations Through The Afternoon. Additional
Rainfall Amounts Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Possible By This Evening.

TORNADO WARNING
TXC007-161630-
/O.NEW.KCRP.TO.W.0008.120416T1558Z-120416T1630Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1058 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL ARANSAS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1130 AM CDT

* AT 1053 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR PALM
HARBOR...OR NEAR ROCKPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ROCKPORT...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO...THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN A BASEMENT. GET UNDER A
WORKBENCH OR OTHER PIECE OF STURDY FURNITURE. IF NO BASEMENT IS
AVAILABLE...SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. USE BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO
COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2800 9691 2796 9699 2802 9698 2804 9701
2799 9706 2794 9705 2795 9703 2794 9704
2790 9712 2802 9721 2806 9716 2805 9715
2813 9704 2810 9701 2804 9701 2803 9698
2804 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1558Z 239DEG 4KT 2800 9708

$$

HART
Quoting fireflymom:
After the Tornadoes now Oklahoma has a magnitude 5 Earthquake, been busy lately.
DATE links are into the IRIS WILBER system where you can see seismograms and request datasets.




DATE and TIME (UTC)
LAT-ITUDE
LONG-ITUDE
MAG-NITUDE
DEPTH km
REGION


16-APR-2012 08:12:00
35.56
-96.76
5.0
5.0
OKLAHOMA
gee these people cant catch a break this week
Quoting RitaEvac:
The National Weather Service In Houston/Galveston Has Issued A

* Flash Flood Watch For A Portion Of Southeast Texas... Including
The Following Counties... Brazoria... Galveston... Jackson...
Matagorda And Wharton.

* Until 7 PM CDT This Evening

* Overnight Showers And Thunderstorms Have Produced 5 To 7 Inches
Of Rain For Areas Along And Near Highway 35 Through This
Morning. A Stationary Surface Boundary Along With Favorable
Upper Level Dynamics Is Expected To Help Keep Activity Going In
And Around These Locations Through The Afternoon. Additional
Rainfall Amounts Of 2 To 4 Inches Are Possible By This Evening.



Yay and we are left out again :-/
Quoting fireflymom:
After the Tornadoes now Oklahoma has a magnitude 5 Earthquake, been busy lately.
DATE links are into the IRIS WILBER system where you can see seismograms and request datasets.




DATE and TIME (UTC)
LAT-ITUDE
LONG-ITUDE
MAG-NITUDE
DEPTH km
REGION


16-APR-2012 08:12:00
35.56
-96.76
5.0
5.0
OKLAHOMA

Are you sure about this? The USGS has no mention of it
Quoting Patrap:
M3.9 - Prague, Oklahoma
2012-04-16 08:12:00 UTC

That's certainly not a 5.0...
Quoting RTSplayer:
Radar estimate at Corpus is up to 16.5 inches of total accumulation.

Should have seen last night near Zapata county Texas.
2 consecutive hours of 5.8 to 5.9 inches per hour rainfall rates estimated by radar.

I think it was officially raining over 3 inches per hour, according to the flash flood warning's description.


Using the NWS multi-sensor best estimate product that is produced by the river forecast centers, there is a small area a 12-14" estimate for the last 12hrs (ending at 15z). Most areas between Corpus Cristi and Bayside are now ranging from 6-12" of rainfall.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge2/RFC_Precip/

A bit over 10" of that rainfall occurred over the last 6hrs. The 1%-chance event (a.k.a. 100yr ARI) is about 8-9".

Similar in size and magnitude to the Lafayette/Carencro, LA, flash flood event earlier this year.
Anybody see the 12Z GFS. OUCH as another severe wx outbreak maybe in the cards except this time for the SE US including FL. Very interesting set up here. Something to really watch!



Quoting DavidHOUTX:


But the NWS needs to use words like that to get it through peoples heads that it is a serious situation and they need to take cover. So many people just blow that kind of stuff off and then it is to late.


They must not use this phrasing unless it is absolutely necessary. Otherwise, they also will become known as the boys who cried wolf and ignored even in those times when they are correct.

We've seen too much of that stuff here already.
Allegedly, there is an radar estimated isolated total rainfall of 18.9 inches near Corpus.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Anybody see the 12Z GFS. OUCH as another severe wx outbreak maybe in the cards except this time for the SE US including FL. Very interesting set up here. Something to really watch!



yes they are slowly starting to maybe warn us, hopefully we will get some good rains out of that system.
Lots of heavy rain for FL as well. Bring on El-Nino!

FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1118 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

ARC003-139-171618-
/O.EXT.KSHV.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-120418T0900Z/
/FELA4.1.ER.000000T0000Z.120406T1200Z.120417T0300 Z.NO/
1118 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE OUACHITA RIVER AT FELSENTHAL ARKANSAS.
* UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 6 AM MONDAY THE STAGE WAS 70.5 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 70 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO BELOW FLOOD STAGE BY
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

LAT...LON 3338 9254 3319 9212 3308 9213 3316 9219 3328 9249

$$
28C SST in the central Gulf already.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Lots of heavy rain for FL as well. Bring on El-Nino!

stormtracker..you think we WILL get some good rains out of it?..NWS says its too early to say if any will be severe as of yet
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
519 AM EDT MON APR 16 2012

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-108-112-114-115 -118-127-128-134-
GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-GMZ730-750-755-765-770 -775-171000-
COFFEE-DALE-HENRY-GENEVA-HOUSTON-INLAND WALTON-CENTRAL WALTON-
HOLMES-WASHINGTON-JACKSON-INLAND BAY-CALHOUN-INLAND GULF-
INLAND FRANKLIN-GADSDEN-LEON-INLAND JEFFERSON-MADISON-LIBERTY-
INLAND WAKULLA-INLAND TAYLOR-LAFAYETTE-INLAND DIXIE-SOUTH WALTON-
COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-
COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-QUITMAN-CLAY-
RANDOLPH-TERRELL-DOUGHERTY-LEE-WORTH-TURNER-TIFT- BEN HILL-IRWIN-
EARLY-MILLER-BAKER-MITCHELL-COLQUITT-COOK-BERRIEN -SEMINOLE-
DECATUR-GRADY-THOMAS-BROOKS-LOWNDES-LANIER-
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
519 AM EDT MON APR 16 2012 /419 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND
BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING BOTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
WEDNESDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM. A STRONGER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
BY SATURDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
WEBSITE ON THE INTERNET AT WEATHER.GOV...THEN CLICK ON YOUR AREA
OF INTEREST ON THE NATIONAL MAP.

$$

38-GODSEY
Imagine..being stuck in traffic...and THIS happens..omg...............................Event
Intense thunderstorms raked the highly populated McAllen/Edinburg/Mission area of Hidalgo County during the mid evening of March 29th. The storms dumped hail up the size of baseballs for more than half an hour, drove that hail with 70 to 75 mph winds, added 4 to 6 inches of torrential rains, and produced frequent cloud to ground lightning. Initial storms developed across the King Ranch during the mid afternoon of March 29th, and spread west into northern Hidalgo and Starr County by early evening. The storms, fed by warm, humid air near the surface, colder air aloft, and boundaries (providing lift) from earlier storms which moved across the Coastal Bend, appeared to have intensified further as they approached the highly populated Edinburg/McAllen/Mission area. Why they intensified was a mystery, but one possibility was the interaction with an upper level disturbance moving across northeast Mexico. This disturbance spawned dangerous storms in Nuevo Léon and Tamaulipas, and boundaries from these cells may have been the ultimate trigger to a night hundreds of thousands will not forget.
Quoting LargoFl:
stormtracker..you think we WILL get some good rains out of it?..NWS says its too early to say if any will be severe as of yet


I think so the models are consistant on isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday thru Friday then Saturday thru early Sunday could be down right stormy & squally. This could be out first big rain event since last October here in C & S FL.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Lots of heavy rain for FL as well. Bring on El-Nino!



The dark blue is only 3/4 of an inch, thats not heavy rain for Florida. We have had no rain for a week, and it's been hot and sunny all the time. We are in severe and exceptional drought.
Quoting SWFLgazer:


They must not use this phrasing unless it is absolutely necessary. Otherwise, they also will become known as the boys who cried wolf and ignored even in those times when they are correct.

We've seen too much of that stuff here already.


Well the tornado Dr Masters mentioned did not meet the warning, so already thats one "cry wolf", it won't take long before they don't work again. Basically if your blasie or stupid you could be killed by a tornado, and thats your problem, imho.
Also you could just be plain unlucky and get killed.
Thanks Dr. Master's for the updated post.
Any loss of life is sad.
I hope in some small way we here at WU helped save some lives.
Thank's again,
Marvin
Quoting MahFL:


Well the tornado Dr Masters mentioned did not meet the warning, so already thats one "cry wolf", it won't take long before they don't work again. Basically if your blasie or stupid you could be killed by a tornado, and thats your problem, imho.
Also you could just be plain unlucky and get killed.


What about the warning for Wichita was not correct or was a cry wolf?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I think so the models are consistant on isolated to scattered thunderstorms Wednesday thru Friday then Saturday thru early Sunday could be down right stormy & squally. This could be out first big rain event since last October here in C & S FL.
yeah local nws said the second one would be the one to watch..man its so dry here
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1038 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXC039-239-321-161830-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0046.120416T1538Z-120416T1830Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
BRAZORIA TX-MATAGORDA TX-JACKSON TX-
1038 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 PM CDT

* AT 1032 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN
IN THE PAST HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE MINOR FLOODING INCLUDE
LAKE JACKSON...BAY CITY...ANGLETON...CLUTE...PALACIOS...WEST
COLUMBIA...SWEENY...RICHWOOD...BRAZORIA...WILD PEACH VILLAGE...
JONES CREEK...VAN VLECK...MARKHAM...HOLIDAY LAKES AND BAILEY`S
PRAIRIE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA. THIS
ADDITIONAL RAIN WILL MAKE MINOR FLOODING.

LAT...LON 2865 9623 2872 9619 2868 9625 2872 9626
2864 9631 2867 9633 2868 9639 2874 9640
2871 9645 2884 9641 2925 9564 2930 9546
2915 9539 2892 9537 2862 9622

$$

# !KP!
You kids have it so easy nowadays. Why when I was young, we hadda walk...
Spring brings Radioactive?? fallout
Source: Fairbanks Daily News-Miner
Date: Apr 15, 2012

Editorial Editors note: This spring, Alaskans read news of how Japan%u2019s Fukushima nuclear reactors were still leaking radioactivity a year after being destroyed by a tsunami. Fifty years ago, Alaskans were worrying about a different source of radioactivity, as explained in this Daily News-Miner editorial from April 12, 1962.

Spring is upon us, but we will have to face more than the return of the birds and the happy loss of the snow, for in this nuclear age the spring fallout from last year%u2019s Russian nuclear tests is beginning to show up. [...]

Fallout, the radioactive debris of nuclear explosions, settles on all parts of the earth%u2019s surface [...]

This we can apparently do little about, and for that matter, little is known about the effects of fallout radiation on the human body. [...]

As we said before, the heaviest concentrations of fallout are found between 30 and 50 degrees North latitude, a zone that includes virtually all of the continental United States.

But before we become unduly alarmed it should be pointed out that the Public Health Service feels there will be no need for special protective measures to reduce human intake of radioactive strontium 90, which may cause bone cancer or leukemia, and cesium 137, which is believed to cause malevolent genetic mutations. [...]

http://newsminer.com/view/full_story/18249572/art icle-Spring-brings-fallout?instance=home_opinion_e ditorial
Nice rain coming in to Houston from the southwest. The sky is starting to flash.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC355-161730-
/O.NEW.KCRP.SV.W.0066.120416T1657Z-120416T1730Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1157 AM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 1230 PM CDT

* AT 1153 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
WALDRON FIELD...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUSTANG ISLAND STATE PARK...
PADRE BALLI PARK...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH...PREPARE
IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...AND DEADLY CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD MOVE TO A SHELTER...
PREFERABLY INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING BUT AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 2763 9726 2758 9729 2765 9735 2772 9728
2769 9723 2771 9719 2774 9717 2776 9719
2779 9713 2781 9714 2782 9717 2785 9713
2778 9708 2760 9720 2757 9728
TIME...MOT...LOC 1656Z 236DEG 14KT 2763 9727

$$

HART
Quoting oreodogsghost:
Nice rain coming in to Houston from the southwest. The sky is starting to flash.
I am curious, some years ago If I remember right, texas was in a severe drought, lots of farmers etc went out of business..and the government was going to spend millions on a plan for drought reief for the future..did they..do anything at all for you folks?..maybe make lake to retain more water when it does rain..anything at all?
Quoting LargoFl:
I am curious, some years ago If I remember right, texas was in a severe drought, lots of farmers etc went out of business..and the government was going to spend millions on a plan for drought reief for the future..did they..do anything at all for you folks?..maybe make lake to retain more water when it does rain..anything at all?


All of the plans being made were very long-term, and won't even be heard in TX until the next legislature, which is next year. (and even then, its doubtful, since the legislature likes to toss around a political football all session, and not get anything done until the last 3 days)
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Anybody see the 12Z GFS. OUCH as another severe wx outbreak maybe in the cards except this time for the SE US including FL. Very interesting set up here. Something to really watch!





not enough shear.
Quoting LargoFl:
I am curious, some years ago If I remember right, texas was in a severe drought, lots of farmers etc went out of business..and the government was going to spend millions on a plan for drought reief for the future..did they..do anything at all for you folks?..maybe make lake to retain more water when it does rain..anything at all?



Republicans would never allow that.

That would be considered communism.

Republicans believe that if you succeed or are healthy or have good fortune it is all you and you deserve everything. If you fail, or get sick or have a disaster, well tough luck, should have tried harder, etc.

It would be the utmost hypocrissy for a Texas Republican, especially a governor or senator, to accept federal assistance programs for ordinary people.
Good afternoon all
Quoting MahFL:


The dark blue is only 3/4 of an inch, thats not heavy rain for Florida. We have had no rain for a week, and it's been hot and sunny all the time. We are in severe and exceptional drought.


Dark blue? I'm in the pink shading across C FL. That's 1.5" to 2.0".
April 16, 2012
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


not enough shear.


I have to disagree.


Quoting nigel20:
April 16, 2012


E-Pac shot up over the last week according to the CPC. Nino 1&2 jumped to 1.9. That is a huge jump from last week.
So far, up to 11" of snow reported in northern Minnesota.

12,000 without power. A handful of schools closed.

Only 3" in my backyard, so I guess I got off easy. It still took me a minute to remember I put the snow shovels up in the garage rafters.

A picture from Virginia, Minnesota where reports range between 6.5" and 11":



Source: Northland's NewsCenter
Quoting nigel20:
April 16, 2012


El-nino could be here in the next several weeks.
Looking very interesting as it tightens up a bit more:

91L?
Quoting StormTracker2K:


El-nino could be here in the next several weeks.
From NOAA's March State of the Climate report released today:

"La Niña conditions continued to weaken during March as temperatures across the equatorial Pacific Ocean warmed during the last two months. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, La Niña is expected to dissipate by the end of April 2012."

IOW: getting there.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Looking very interesting as it tightens up a bit more:

91L?

It looks better than Jose ever did...
Quoting StormTracker2K:


E-Pac shot up over the last week according to the CPC. Nino 1&2 jumped to 1.9. That is a huge jump from last week.


But Nino 3.4 remained at -0.3C,same as last week's update.



Link
Radar loop of Minnesota's snowstorm:




Source: OSNW3's observations.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Looking very interesting as it tightens up a bit more:

91L?


Impressive!
Quoting 47n91w:
Radar loop of Minnesota's snowstorm:




Source: OSNW3's observations.


Quite the epic snowstorm it was, got me out of school! :D
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I have to disagree.




that weak at upper levels, it is very minimal at 500mb, but it has a while to change.
I would say at best a hail and wind squall line, but whenever i say that we get a tornado outbreak so....

I am supposed to be camping in
NW georgia Friday-Sunday.
I dont want to get wet unless it is a tornadic supercell.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Looking very interesting as it tightens up a bit more:

91L?


looks like a giant cutoff low, that will drift around and move off in a few days.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Looking very interesting as it tightens up a bit more:

91L?


If the NHC folks want to know more about the system,they have to put an invest up soon to see the microwave data.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:


looks like a giant cutoff low, that will drift around and move off in a few days.


The idea behind the formation is that the longer it sits on warm water and the longer it sits the more it will tighten up and gain a shallow warm core, becoming subtropical.

Needs a few things to become subtropical:
Convection over center
Shallow warm core
Detatched from fronts

None of which has happened yet. :P It is trying though.
Quoting yqt1001:


Quite the epic snowstorm it was, got me out of school! :D


I just realized your name is Thunder Bay's IATA code. Between the two of us, we got western Lake Superior covered. Enjoy your snow day!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


But Nino 3.4 remained at -0.3C,same as last week's update.



Link


Yeah but it's just a matter of time before Nino 3.4 starts reacting to whats going on across the E-Pac. I expect El-Nino alot sooner than some think as were just under +.5C right now which is the cut off from El-Nino. So it's feesable that over the next 3 to 5 weeks we will move into full El-Nino territory.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If the NHC folks want to know more about the system,they have to put an invest up soon to see the microwave data.

I think they should invest it just for research purposes... This would be a good case study of a low pressure area on a front over cool SST's attempting to acquire a warm core structure
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


If the NHC folks want to know more about the system,they have to put an invest up soon to see the microwave data.


I think their waiting for the system to detach it's self from the fronts.
Quoting 47n91w:


I just realized your name is Thunder Bay's IATA code. Between the two of us, we got western Lake Superior covered. Enjoy your snow day!


Yep, you are the first one to notice in the 2 years I've used this name on various websites.

Where on Lake Superior are you?
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0560
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1233 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY...NWRN/N-CNTRL PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 161733Z - 161900Z

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 1930Z AND
2100Z AND POSE A RISK FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS ACROSS WRN/CNTRL NY AND
NWRN/N-CNTRL PA. THE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH IS POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON.

A SFC COLD FRONT CONTINUES TRACKING EWD...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM
MIDDLE LAKE ERIE SWD ACROSS ERN OH. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES REGIONS OF CLEARING AMIDST A CORRIDOR OF MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT. MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EXIST
ACROSS MUCH OF PA AND NY IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH
A NWD-EXTENDING ZONE OF DEEP-LAYER DRY AIR PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.
DIABATIC HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO
BECOME ANOMALOUSLY WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH READINGS
REACHING THE 80S IN MANY LOCATIONS. MODIFICATIONS TO THE
BUFFALO/PITTSBURGH SOUNDINGS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST SFC
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT SBCAPE VALUES ARE REACHING NEAR 500 J/KG
IN SOME LOCATIONS.

WHILE THE DEGREE OF SFC-BASED BUOYANCY IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED
ACROSS THE AREA OWING TO VERTICAL MIXING OF DRY AIR ALOFT INTO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER -- I.E. DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 50S --
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY GENERATE SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEPENING CONVECTION BY MID-AFTERNOON
GIVEN LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT AIDED BY OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS. STORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY OVER WRN NY ADJACENT TO LAKE
ONTARIO AND THE EAST END OF LAKE ERIE IN CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE
STRONGEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS -- ON THE ORDER OF 70-100
GEOPOTENTIAL METERS PER 12 HOURS. FARTHER SOUTH INTO PA...STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY MORE ISOLATED OWING TO WEAKER
DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT.

WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 50-60 KT...ORGANIZED STORM
STRUCTURES INCLUDING MULTICELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS COULD
MATERIALIZE WITH THE ATTENDANT THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS. SVR WINDS
WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTED BY THE STRONG BACKGROUND FLOW IN THE LOW
LEVELS BECOMING MANIFESTED AT THE SFC VIA DOWNWARD CONVECTIVE MASS
TRANSPORT...WITH 40-60 KT OF WSWLY FLOW IN THE 1-3-KM AGL LAYER PER
BUFFALO VWP DATA.

..COHEN.. 04/16/2012
Quoting yqt1001:


Yep, you are the first one to notice in the 2 years I've used this name on various websites.

Where on Lake Superior are you?


A stone's throw from Chequamegon Bay around Ashland, Wisconsin. 15 miles south of the Apostle Islands. On a clear day, two of the islands can be seen in this webcam:

http://www.kerrart.com/bayfieldwisconsa.html
The Sun just put out it's first M-class solar flare in a while... not sure of the source though

April 15, 2011

April 15, 2012

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
The Sun just put out it's first M-class solar flare in a while... not sure of the source though


Source located... It's a returning region...

QUOTE from Sunday evening...
(Re: NHC forecasters)

Quoting JeffMasters:


Talked to two of them today here in Ponte Verda Beach. They already have a rotation schedule worked out in case Alberto develops; some of them would have to go home early from the conference.

Jeff Masters



I wonder if this is today's lunch break topic of discussion....

Quoting sunlinepr:
boy if i lived along the coast in new england and southern canada, i'd keep a close eye on this thing building out there
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
QUOTE from Sunday evening...
(Re: NHC forecasters)




I wonder if this is today's lunch break topic of discussion....


I'm sure its definitely a topic. It doesn't look like an STS to me, as it is still plainly attached to a front, and its missing convection near the center (it does appear to be trying to fire some, though). It also just ingested a pretty big slug of dry air looking at the WV loop, so that won't help.
Quoting jeffs713:


All of the plans being made were very long-term, and won't even be heard in TX until the next legislature, which is next year. (and even then, its doubtful, since the legislature likes to toss around a political football all session, and not get anything done until the last 3 days)
thats terrible, playing politics i guess,meanwhile people suffer. whould be great if tyhey planted tree's, lots of tree's and made new lakes and ponds to catch any new rainfall, while the tree's shade the earth and hold down the soil...well maybe someday huh
Quoting jeffs713:

I'm sure its definitely a topic. It doesn't look like an STS to me, as it is still plainly attached to a front, and its missing convection near the center (it does appear to be trying to fire some, though). It also just ingested a pretty big slug of dry air looking at the WV loop, so that won't help.


There's two big fronts it still has to get rid of before an invest can be declared. Infact one front from this has pushed thru PR.

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC273-355-161945-
/O.NEW.KCRP.FF.W.0017.120416T1739Z-120416T1945Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1239 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN KLEBERG COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
CENTRAL NUECES COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 1236 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THUNDERSTORMS
WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. DOPPLER RADAR
ESTIMATED MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN PORTIONS OF THE WARNED
AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
SOME CITIES AND TOWNS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...BAY
AREA MEDICAL CENTER...FLOUR BLUFF...KINGS CROSSING GOLF COURSE...
TEXAS AM UNIVERSITY CORPUS CHRISTI AND WALDRON FIELD. OSO CREEK
WILL ALSO BE AFFECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 2731 9742 2729 9748 2729 9755 2734 9750
2736 9750 2729 9759 2731 9765 2730 9768
2773 9733 2770 9724 2763 9726 2755 9732
2756 9729 2736 9735 2734 9739 2728 9740

$$

PZ
Quoting StormTracker2K:


El-nino could be here in the next several weeks.


I'm thinking summer formation might suppress convection in the South.

I recall the summers of 2006 and 2009.

Hopefully there will be drought relief next fall.
Keeping an eye on this one

You have the occluded front to the NE of the low, then the front that sways down all the way into the Carribbean with the Air low the intersection point

Quoting RitaEvac:
Keeping an eye on this one



I wonder if this front that is stalled is turning into a warm front and heading back north..
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
113 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXC273-355-161823-
/O.EXP.KCRP.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-120416T1815Z/
KLEBERG-NUECES-
113 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN NUECES AND
EASTERN KLEBERG COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 115 PM CDT...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS WEAKENED AND THE PREDOMINATE THREAT IS NOW OVER
MARINE AREAS. THUS...THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM CDT MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

LAT...LON 2731 9752 2736 9750 2732 9754 2736 9759
2764 9729 2763 9726 2755 9731 2762 9726
2758 9720 2737 9731 2732 9737 2734 9738
2729 9741 2731 9742 2729 9748
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 227DEG 14KT 2745 9732

$$

HART
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


I wonder if this front that is stalled is turning into a warm front and heading back north..


I really can't tell, looks as if precip is trying to move offshore, and that big cell looks to be the last hoorah

But then again, there is precip way out in the hill country

Forensic Analysis of the Tornado Outbreak of April 14-15, 2012

Abstract
The weather system producing the tornado outbreak on April 14-15, 2012 is documented using GOES infrared satellite imagery. Sixteen hours of images at half hour intervals are sequentially arranged to show the development and evolution of this system. A forensic analysis is performed using correlation grids, which are highly structured collections of regular geometric shapes spatially correlated to weather features. It is implicitly demonstrated that correlation grids appear to coexist with naturally evolving weather formations. The origin, cause, and actual existence of correlation grids remain unknown.

The report can be found at askwhy333.minus.com
Correlation grids can be also constructed for tropical storm dynamics.



Quoting RitaEvac:


I really can't tell, looks as if precip is trying to move offshore, and that big cell looks to be the last hoorah

I think it is starting to back a bit, if you look in Galveston county on a 20 or 30 frame loop, you can see what almost looks like a seabreeze push back inland. Also, if you look at the vertical wind plot off the radar in Houston, you can see a wind shift at the end of the plot on the lowest 2k feet.

The big cell that seems to be stretching out will decide if the front pushes back inland (with daytime heating), or if the front can push fully offshore.
Looks like a classic storm you'd see in the Gulf of Alaska

Nogaps. Models seem to be coming together for an active Saturday across the SE US.

Quoting wxmojo:
Correlation grids can be also constructed for tropical storm dynamics.





Is that from contrails? Or...Am I confusing conspiracy theories?
78 sunlinepr [quoting a presentday Fairbanks editorial] : Spring brings fallout. This spring, Alaskans read news of how Japan's Fukushima nuclear reactors were still leaking radioactivity a year after being destroyed by a tsunami. Fifty years ago, Alaskans were worrying about a different source of radioactivity, as explained in this Daily News-Miner editorial from April 12, 1962...

Of course we've learned since then that elected officials and their appointed bureaucrats lie to their citizens as casually, with as little moral qualm as a squirrel gobbles seeds from a bird feeder.
This spring brings...?
Radioactive particles from Japan have been detected in California kelp beds since last spring.
"The levels, while most likely not harmful to humans, were significantly higher than measurements prior to the explosion and comparable to those found in British Columbia, Canada, and northern Washington state following the Chernobyl disaster..."
"...while the effect of radioactive material in kelp is not well known, it would have been consumed by organisms that feed on the kelp such as sea urchins or crustaceans. [Kelp-eating] species of fish, including opaleye, halfmoon or senorita may be particularly affected because their endocrine systems contain iodine..."
Then there is the problem of bio-accumulation.
The kelp-eaters retain much of that radioactive material, concentrating it. The predatory fish/etc that eat kelp-eaters concentrate it further... etc up the food chain.
And humans tend to be especially fond of eating the near-top and top-predator fish species.
Quoting jeffs713:

I think it is starting to back a bit, if you look in Galveston county on a 20 or 30 frame loop, you can see what almost looks like a seabreeze push back inland. Also, if you look at the vertical wind plot off the radar in Houston, you can see a wind shift at the end of the plot on the lowest 2k feet.

The big cell that seems to be stretching out will decide if the front pushes back inland (with daytime heating), or if the front can push fully offshore.


It looks like this last cell is some kind of meso, and will pull the front offshore after it moves past Galveston. Note development offshore in the Gulf...

Quoting RitaEvac:


I really can't tell, looks as if precip is trying to move offshore, and that big cell looks to be the last hoorah

But then again, there is precip way out in the hill country


Enjoying the rain? GOES shows a front running north and west of Houston. (Seguin seems to be the western boundary)

I don't know if the front is stationary or what. But it's been there since yesterday.
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


Enjoying the rain? GOES shows a front running north and west of Houston. (Seguin seems to be the western boundary)

I don't know if the front is stationary or what. But it's been there since yesterday.


Enjoying it alright. Whatever's going on it is clearing out to our SW
Quoting presslord:


Is that from contrails? Or...Am I confusing conspiracy theories?


No contrails. No conspiracy theory. Simply geometric observations from satellite imagery. You help tell me what it is going on because I don't know.
Quoting wxmojo:
Correlation grids can be also constructed for tropical storm dynamics.
They also make great placemats, and can even be folded into fun party hats!
Quoting wxmojo:


No contrails. No conspiracy theory. Simply geometric observations from satellite imagery. You help tell me what it is going on because I don't know.
There's nothing going on, at least not that I can see. It looks as though three grids consisting of numerous lines and circles were laid atop an infrared satellite image in an effort to show, well, something...

* At 1:41pm CDT... The WeatherBug Total Lightning Network is indicating a thunderstorm with a significant rate of lightning occurring in your area and moving in your direction. This storm has an increased potential to produce severe weather such as very frequent lightning, heavy rain, hail and/or damaging winds and should be considered dangerous. (For more information on this experimental WeatherBug product visit WDTA.WeatherBug.com)

* Storm is located near Danbury, TX

* Locations impacted include...
Danbury, TX... at 1:56pm CDT
Liverpool, TX... at 1:58pm CDT

* Repeating, this storm contains frequent lightning and has an increased potential to produce severe weather and should be considered dangerous. Take appropriate measures to insure safety to life and property immediately.

This alert is being issued in an advisory capacity by WeatherBug Headquarters due to the detection of frequent lightning by The WeatherBug Total Lightning Network. It is not associated in any way with the National Weather Service nor to any NWS warnings that may be linked to this storm. Active NWS advisories, if any, should be followed in precedence to this alert.


Could have it tagged as 91L later today.
Quoting SubtropicalHi:


I'm thinking summer formation might suppress convection in the South.

I recall the summers of 2006 and 2009.

Hopefully there will be drought relief next fall.


I don't recall 2009 being dry in the South, especially in Florida. In fact, it rained far more in Florida in 2009 than it did in 2010 and 2011. The last two summers in La Nina years have been pathetic with Florida's rainy season. 2009's though was pretty good.
Quoting RitaEvac:


It looks like this last cell is some kind of meso, and will pull the front offshore after it moves past Galveston. Note development offshore in the Gulf...


Yeah, it does appear to be some kind of meso. The popcorn firing out in the hill country has me pausing on the front's movement, though, since it seems to be a very shallow front.
Quoting Neapolitan:
They also make great placemats, and can even be folded into fun party hats!There's nothing going on, at least not that I can see. It looks as though three grids consisting of numerous lines and circles were laid atop an infrared satellite image in an effort to show, well, something...



I dunno, man...I placed the same grid over Da Vinci's 'Last Supper' and...well....I don't even wanna talk about it...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Could have it tagged as 91L later today.

The 12z GFS has it more warm core than previous runs.
Meso thingy looks to be taking a more NE turn and northward movement in last frame
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC261-161930-
/O.NEW.KBRO.SV.W.0027.120416T1857Z-120416T1930Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
157 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL KENEDY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 230 PM CDT

* AT 157 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING 60 MPH WINDS...OVER CENTRAL KENEDY COUNTY...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
RURAL CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENEDY COUNTY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

QUARTER SIZE HAIL IS LIKELY. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY.

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&

LAT...LON 2685 9739 2686 9740 2689 9739 2691 9744
2678 9746 2683 9747 2685 9755 2679 9749
2680 9747 2675 9746 2693 9780 2709 9771
2699 9744 2691 9744 2691 9740 2697 9739
2696 9737 2689 9736
TIME...MOT...LOC 1857Z 297DEG 20KT 2697 9766

$$

64
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I don't recall 2009 being dry in the South, especially in Florida. In fact, it rained far more in Florida in 2009 than it did in 2010 and 2011. The last two summers in La Nina years have been pathetic with Florida's rainy season. 2009's though was pretty good.


Yep, I saw nearly 60" in 2009 with 16" falling in May that year. The funny thing is 2009 started out like this year with only 4" up to mid May then the sky opened up and the rain never stopped.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Meso thingy looks to be taking a more NE turn and northward movement in last frame


It is certainly one hell of a radar image. I really do not know what is going on. Storms firing up due west in SA and the 2 boundaries running into each other over Galveston County. Wonder if that Meso is making a sharp North due to either the sea breeze or the line that went by this morning ahead of the front making a U-turn as a warm front
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


It is certainly one hell of a radar image. I really do not know what is going on. Storms firing up due west in SA and the 2 boundaries running into each other over Galveston County. Wonder if that Meso is making a sharp North due to either the sea breeze or the line that went by this morning ahead of the front making a U-turn as a warm front


Looks like its running into the SE flow and being shoved back north. I looked at radial velocity and winds are dead calm where the lil arm is swinging north

Watching the meso thingy more, it seems to just be spinning a lot at the mid-levels, pushing a "band" of storms around the meso's center. The center of the meso hasn't turned much - this is most apparent when you look at TDWR out of Hobby.
looks like its dry up in the northeast also..............SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1021 AM EDT MON APR 16 2012

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010- 012>027-PAZ054-
055-060>062-067>071-170000-
NEW CASTLE-KENT-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERD ON-
SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-
GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-
ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-
COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-
NORTHAMPTON-CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHI LADELPHIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...DOVER...GEORGETOWN...
REHOBOTH BEACH...ELKTON...CHESTERTOWN...CENTREVILLE...EASTO N...
DENTON...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...FLEMI NGTON...
SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...FREEHOLD...SANDY HOOK...TRENTON...
PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...
MOUNT HOLLY...JACKSON...MILLVILLE...HAMMONTON...
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE...OCEAN CITY...ATLANTIC CITY...
LONG BEACH ISLAND...WHARTON STATE FOREST...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...W EST CHESTER...
NORRISTOWN...DOYLESTOWN...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA
1021 AM EDT MON APR 16 2012

...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON...

FUEL MOISTURE REMAINS RATHER LOW ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SHOULD GUST TO AROUND 20 MPH AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LOWERS TO AROUND 30 PERCENT. THEREFORE, AN
ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRES EXISTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

OPEN BURNING OF ANY TYPE IS CONSIDERED VERY HAZARDOUS THIS TIME OF
YEAR. ACCIDENTAL ESCAPED DEBRIS BURNS ARE THE NUMBER ONE CAUSE OF
WILDFIRES. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT WILDFIRE DANGER, BURN RESTRICTIONS
AND WILDFIRE PREVENTION AND EDUCATION, PLEASE VISIT YOUR STATE
FORESTRY OR ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION WEBSITE.

$$

GORSE
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yep, I saw nearly 60" in 2009 with 16" falling in May that year. The funny thing is 2009 started out like this year with only 4" up to mid May then the sky opened up and the rain never stopped.


That was because of the system that became 90L that year in May. After May 15th, it just never stopped. And some of the thunderstorms where insane come June-August.
Front has definitely blown through Downtown Houston. Temps dropping down to lower 60s right now with due North wind
Quoting CybrTeddy:


That was because of the system that became 90L that year in May. After May 15th, it just never stopped. And some of the thunderstorms where insane come June-August.


That's right I forgot about 90L. I know it rained for days and never stopped while some areas in NW Volusia & Flagler Counties got close to 3 feet of rain during that event.
113 nigel20: [comparison between]April 15, 2011[and]April 15, 2012[SeaSurfaceTemperature charts]

More telling are charts showing the Depth of the 26degreeCelsius(78.8degreeFahrenheit)Isotherm
16Apr2011 (Julian day 106)

15Apr2012 (LeapYear... Julian day 106)
Quoting Neapolitan:
They also make great placemats, and can even be folded into fun party hats!There's nothing going on, at least not that I can see. It looks as though three grids consisting of numerous lines and circles were laid atop an infrared satellite image in an effort to show, well, something...



I've liked them. Many times certain features follow others at certain distances, angles & such. It helps organize in the natural geometric laws it all falls under..sometimes I'll compare to a loop to feel it in motion...sometimes make mental adjustments (like that one~ Center the circle around the CAtl storm a little better, adjust that box..may give the 45º angles it's begging for.) Helps me quantify it all to see where it's going..kinda like putting math in shapes & colors to get the answer instead of doing all the numbers.
159. Tygor
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


It is certainly one hell of a radar image. I really do not know what is going on. Storms firing up due west in SA and the 2 boundaries running into each other over Galveston County. Wonder if that Meso is making a sharp North due to either the sea breeze or the line that went by this morning ahead of the front making a U-turn as a warm front


Don't count on it raining in SA. There's an invisible dome over the city.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

The 12z GFS has it more warm core than previous runs.

Just a side note to that- The 12z CMC came in quite a bit cooler than its previous run but still had it briefly warm core, and the 12z UKMET came in about the same and still shows it staying cold core.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


It is certainly one hell of a radar image. I really do not know what is going on. Storms firing up due west in SA and the 2 boundaries running into each other over Galveston County. Wonder if that Meso is making a sharp North due to either the sea breeze or the line that went by this morning ahead of the front making a U-turn as a warm front


DavidHOUTX, look at the latest upload in askwhy333.minus.com for a correlation grid that may shed some sort of insight into what is going on the the odd meso around Houston.
This morning's ASCAT pass. Not as together is lastnight's OSCAT.
Local wx office here has upped the rain chances for Saturday and look at next Monday. That would be the coolest it's been in 6 weeks. So this could mean more freezes up north for the mid Atlantic to Great Lakes region.


Quoting StormTracker2K:
Local wx office here has upped the rain chances for Saturday and look at next Monday. That would be the coolest it's been in 6 weeks. So this could mean more freezes up north for the mid Atlantic to Great Lakes region.




Don't get too excited, the exact same thing happened the other week, and the exact same setup, and it temperatures never got below 83 degrees.
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for...
Galveston County in southeastern Texas...
Brazoria County in southeastern Texas...
extreme east central Matagorda County in southeastern Texas...

* until 530 PM CDT

* at 219 PM CDT... Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
thunderstorms. This will cause Urban and Small Stream flooding in
the advisory area. 4 to 5 inches with isolated amounts of up to 9
inches has fallen across portions of the area from Brazoria to
just south of Angleton and Danbury to near Santa Fe overnight and
this morning. This cluster of storms moving through the area this
afternoon may bring another 1 to 2 inches.

* Some locations that will experience minor flooding include
Lake Jackson... Alvin... Angleton... La Marque... Clute... Santa Fe...
Hitchcock... West Columbia... Sweeny... Richwood... Brazoria... wild
Peach Village... Jones Creek... Bayou Vista... Danbury... Holiday
Lakes... Hillcrest... bailey's prairie... Liverpool and Bonney
Got confirmed report that 5 inches total so far from overnight and today just 5 miles to my south. And I had less than an inch at 7AM today.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
Front has definitely blown through Downtown Houston. Temps dropping down to lower 60s right now with due North wind
looks like the worst is over for you folks
heading to wanne music festivals with friends in live oak florida this week looks like rain for saturday "no rain,no rain, no rain"
Abstract on low pressure storm systems in the Arctic that induce strong upwelling along the shelf. This upwelling leads to large fluxes of CO2 out of the ocean. This upwelling & release causes broad carbonate mineral suppression and undersaturation in the water.
Quoting wxmojo:


DavidHOUTX, look at the latest upload in askwhy333.minus.com for a correlation grid that may shed some sort of insight into what is going on the the odd meso around Houston.
I followed the "tutorial", and what I can see is that if enough circles and rectangles are superimposed atop an image of the weather, and if enough of those rectangles are rotated just so, weather features can be made to, well, something.

What is this image purporting to show?

Huh?

Of course, certain low pressure systems assume a more or less circular shape, while certain troughs and fronts can present themselves as long roughly straight lines. But beyond that, I'm unsure what it is you (and others) are seeing here.
Quoting islander101010:
heading to wanne music festivals with friends in live oak florida this week looks like rain for saturday "no rain,no rain, no rain"


Lucky..I'd like to have seen Furthur & some others. Decent chance of rain Wed & Thurs too. Atleast the worse expected shouldn't be anything like the time it all flooded awful.
Looks like one of those low pressure areas in the Pacific that never do anything tropical/subtropical wise.

No invest yet..

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Local wx office here has upped the rain chances for Saturday and look at next Monday. That would be the coolest it's been in 6 weeks. So this could mean more freezes up north for the mid Atlantic to Great Lakes region.


The low and the high for next Monday--a ways off--are only forecast to be five or six degrees below normal. What would make that indicate a late-season freeze for the Mid-Atlantic? Washington DC, for instance, has only dropped below freezing two times after April 20 in all of its history, and that happened in 1874 and 1875; what makes you see a cold blast of what would be historic significance?
OceanSat missed most of it, but does show some 50kt barbs.


Quoting Neapolitan:
The low and the high for next Monday--a ways off--are only forecast to be five or six degrees below normal. What would make that indicate a late-season freeze for the Mid-Atlantic? Washington DC, for instance, has only dropped below freezing two times after April 20 in all of its history, and that happened in 1874 and 1875; what makes you see a cold blast of what would be historic significance?


I think I'll just stick with the Bible Code...
The Atlantic is looking like July right now. Is the NHC keeping track of these storms? Didn't I read late last week that there were some models predicting a subtropical storm around this time? I think it's starting.
Press Release of Senator Wyden

Source: Press Release of Senator Wyden
Date: Monday, April 16, 2012

“The scope of damage to the plants and to the surrounding area was far beyond what I expected and the scope of the challenges to the utility owner, the government of Japan, and to the people of the region are daunting,” Wyden wrote in the letter. “The precarious status of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear units and the risk presented by the enormous inventory of radioactive materials and spent fuel in the event of further earthquake threats should be of concern to all and a focus of greater international support and assistance.”
Quoting Skyepony:


I've liked them. Many times certain features follow others at certain distances, angles & such. It helps organize in the natural geometric laws it all falls under..sometimes I'll compare to a loop to feel it in motion...sometimes make mental adjustments (like that one~ Center the circle around the CAtl storm a little better, adjust that box..may give the 45º angles it's begging for.) Helps me quantify it all to see where it's going..kinda like putting math in shapes & colors to get the answer instead of doing all the numbers.
Oh, I understand that. For my own education and/or amusement I'll often use similar systems; I'm a very visual thinker, and such aids are a tremendous help at times. But I also know that weather modification enthusiasts--HAARP-ists, as it were--generally consider correlation grids to be evidence of governmental conspiracy and deceit. That just so happens to be a view I do not share.
Quoting Neapolitan:
The low and the high for next Monday--a ways off--are only forecast to be five or six degrees below normal. What would make that indicate a late-season freeze for the Mid-Atlantic? Washington DC, for instance, has only dropped below freezing two times after April 20 in all of its history, and that happened in 1874 and 1875; what makes you see a cold blast of what would be historic significance?


My only reasoning was us getting into the 50's so one would think it would be a lot colder that far north but I just looked at the models and the temps are actually fairly uniform across the east next week so yes i agree I don't see any freezes.

Quoting Neapolitan:
I followed the "tutorial", and what I can see is that if enough circles and rectangles are superimposed atop an image of the weather, and if enough of those rectangles are rotated just so, weather features can be made to, well, something.

What is this image purporting to show?

Huh?

Of course, certain low pressure systems assume a more or less circular shape, while certain troughs and fronts can present themselves as long roughly straight lines. But beyond that, I'm unsure what it is you (and others) are seeing here.


Trying to determine if the front is moving offshore or has stalled completely and started reversing as a warm front. It doesn't seem that small line was a low pressure that looked as if it was making a North turn. I think it is just the N wind meeting the S wind and creating an illusion on radar.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Trying to determine if the front is moving offshore or has stalled completely and started reversing as a warm front. It doesn't seem that small line was a low pressure that looked as if it was making a North turn. I think it is just the N wind meeting the S wind and creating an illusion on radar.


lmao
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
313 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

TXC261-489-162030-
/O.CON.KBRO.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120416T2030Z/
WILLACY-KENEDY-
313 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHWESTERN KENEDY AND NORTHWESTERN WILLACY COUNTIES...

AT 313 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO
TRACK A TORNADO 13 MILES NORTH OF LASARA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
YTURRIA BY 330 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&


LAT...LON 2653 9777 2660 9796 2661 9797 2662 9798
2670 9799 2679 9797 2674 9772
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 302DEG 13KT 2665 9787

$$



172 Neapolitan: ...if enough circles and rectangles are superimposed atop an image of the weather, and if enough of those rectangles are rotated just so...well...What is this image purporting to show?

Confusion. And possibly that wxmojo is trying to troll wxmod.

You do realize, wxmojo, that the farther from the center of a flat map/picture a "straight"line is drawn:
the more it curves when projected upon the surface of the Globe;
the more distances vary between any 2(apparently)parallel grid lines when projected upon the surface of the Globe;
and the farther from 90degrees 2(apparently)perpendicular lines become when projected upon the surface of the Globe.

Similarly, the farther a circle's center is from the center of the map/picture, the "circle"s surrounding it become ever less equidistantly concentric and ever more egg-shaped when projected upon the surface of the Globe.
Quoting Skyepony:


I've liked them. Many times certain features follow others at certain distances, angles & such. It helps organize in the natural geometric laws it all falls under..sometimes I'll compare to a loop to feel it in motion...sometimes make mental adjustments (like that one~ Center the circle around the CAtl storm a little better, adjust that box..may give the 45º angles it's begging for.) Helps me quantify it all to see where it's going..kinda like putting math in shapes & colors to get the answer instead of doing all the numbers.


I tried to wade through this 25 years ago, it sort of makes sense if you first of all forget almost everything you allready know!
I expect quite a few people on here will have read it but its an interesting way of looking at things. Chaos:-

http://www.openroadmedia.com/books/chaos-making-a -new-science.aspx#bookDetail
This is a pretty long tracked tornado in TX... I doubt it's very strong but still its been confirmed for a while

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
332 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
NORTHERN WILLACY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO OVER SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RUDOLPH.
YTURRIA.
WILLAMAR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&

LAT...LON 2661 9749 2644 9763 2665 9790 2679 9777
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 308DEG 22KT 2666 9775

$$

64
What is this image purporting to show?


It's purporting to show exactly what it says: a transition from one correlation grid to another correlation grid. That's why there is a phenomenal number of lines on the plot you selected to present.

If you are not seeing anything, I am fine with that. Not everyone sees things the same way.
Will NHC at least get a floater up if they will not have a invest?
Quoting wxmojo:


It's purporting to show exactly what it says: a transition from one correlation grid to another correlation grid. That's why there is a phenomenal number of lines on the plot you selected to present.

If you are not seeing anything, I am fine with that. Not everyone sees things the same way.


I think I see Jesus...but it might just be Pat....
Quoting wxmojo:


It's purporting to show exactly what it says: a transition from one correlation grid to another correlation grid. That's why there is a phenomenal number of lines on the plot you selected to present.

If you are not seeing anything, I am fine with that. Not everyone sees things the same way.


I see it

Quoting aspectre:
172 Neapolitan: ...if enough circles and rectangles are superimposed atop an image of the weather, and if enough of those rectangles are rotated just so...well...What is this image purporting to show?

Confusion. And possibly that wxmojo is trying to troll wxmod.

You do realize, wxmojo, that the farther from the center of a flat map/picture a "straight"line is drawn:
the more it curves when projected upon the surface of the Globe;
the more distances vary between any 2(apparently)parallel grid lines when projected upon the surface of the Globe;
and the farther from 90degrees 2(apparently)perpendicular lines become when projected upon the surface of the Globe.

Similarly, the farther a circle's center is from the center of the map/picture, the more egg-shaped and less parallel the "circle"s surrounding it are when projected upon the surface of the Globe.


There are tons of different projections to mitigate spherical distortions. What projection algorithm is being used on the images being presented, I know not. Nevertheless, the rectangles and circles inarguably align with certain weather features (though some will argue none the less).

If these illustrations are sowing confusion for you, then hit the "ignore user" action for wxmojo, and I will be forever out of your thoughts.
Fire Weather Watch

Statement as of 3:47 PM EDT on April 16, 2012

... Fire Weather Watch in effect from Tuesday morning through
Tuesday evening...

The National Weather Service in Mount Holly has issued a Fire
Weather Watch... which is in effect from Tuesday morning through
Tuesday evening.

* Winds... northwest 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

* Relative humidity... as low as 20 percent from late morning
through the afternoon.

* Impacts... the fire danger remains elevated due to the expected
gusty winds and the continuation of the rather dry conditions.
As a result, the potential exists for rapid spread if
uncontrolled fires develop or even for prescribed Burns to get
out of control. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Fire Weather Watch means that critical fire weather conditions
are forecast to occur. Listen for later forecasts and possible
red flag warnings.

Here we go with the fire weather watches again... There is a burn ban almost everywhere around me. most of N.east coast under a FWW
Quoting wxmojo:


There are tons of different projections to mitigate spherical distortions. What projection algorithm is being used on the images being presented, I know not. Nevertheless, the rectangles and circles inarguably align with certain weather features (though some will argue none the less).

If these illustrations are sowing confusion for you, then hit the "ignore user" action for wxmojo, and I will be forever out of your thoughts.


a monkey with an Etch A Sketch
Quoting RitaEvac:


I see it


I see mickey mouse after he meets Jason (of Nightmare on Elm Street fame).

Honestly though... Lots of lines, lots of issues, none of which are comparing apples to apples (except the circles, those make sense)
Quoting:-181. Patrap

“The scope of damage to the plants and to the surrounding area was far beyond what I expected and the scope of the challenges to the utility owner, the government of Japan, and to the people of the region are daunting,” Wyden wrote in the letter. “The precarious status of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear units and the risk presented by the enormous inventory of radioactive materials and spent fuel in the event of further earthquake threats should be of concern to all and a focus of greater international support and assistance.”

In the world of possibilities and probability's and also noting the amount of basic quakes that are happening under and near the Japan nuclear plant, the odds of the place not falling apart are small and the chances of even bigger future problems to the immediate area and probably the Northern Hemisphere are Great!
In one of the reactor buildings, I think its 4, there are over a thousand spent fuel rods that have to be kept cool. They are in a containment vessel which is not stable and needs to have water passing through it at all times.
The chances are that in the not too distant future a quake or just fatigue will rupture the vessel and the water will leak out. The results of this will mean that we will probably will have to invent a new word which carries more weight than, 'Catastrophic.'
The clock is ticking on this one and as of this moment nobody is doing anything to stop the event, as nobody has yet come up with a plan of how to stop it happening!
Quoting presslord:


a monkey with an Etch A Sketch


In case you overlooked it, the "ignore user" action is at the bottom of the box, toward the right. Please feel free to use it.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Quoting:-181. Patrap

“The scope of damage to the plants and to the surrounding area was far beyond what I expected and the scope of the challenges to the utility owner, the government of Japan, and to the people of the region are daunting,” Wyden wrote in the letter. “The precarious status of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear units and the risk presented by the enormous inventory of radioactive materials and spent fuel in the event of further earthquake threats should be of concern to all and a focus of greater international support and assistance.”

In the world of possibilities and probability's and also noting the amount of basic quakes that are happening under and near the Japan nuclear plant, the odds of the place not falling apart are small and the chances of even bigger future problems to the immediate area and probably the Northern Hemisphere are Great!
In one of the reactor buildings, I think its 4, there are over a thousand spent fuel rods that have to be kept cool. They are in a containment vessel which is not stable and needs to have water passing through it at all times.
The chances are that in the not too distant future a quake or just fatigue will rupture the vessel and the water will leak out. The results of this will mean that we will probably will have to invent a new word which carries more weight than, 'Catastrophic.'
The clock is ticking on this one and as of this moment nobody is doing anything to stop the event, as nobody has yet come up with a plan of how to stop it happening!
its just downright awful, and imagine in 10-20 years from now..the cancer rates there
196 wxmojo: If these illustrations are sowing confusion for you [aspectre] then hit the "ignore user" action for wxmojo

Actually, I know what they show. I also know that (*) they don't show straight lines or circles or perpendicular grids with equidistant spacing or centroids or... much of anything really.
So tell me, why would I want to ignore people who are trying to confuse others?

* due to mapping distortion caused by trying to project features from a sphere onto a flat surface
or from a flat surface onto a sphere
TORNADO WARNING
TXC261-489-162100-
/O.NEW.KBRO.TO.W.0006.120416T2032Z-120416T2100Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
332 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
NORTHERN WILLACY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT

* AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO OVER SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
RUDOLPH.
YTURRIA.
WILLAMAR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PLEASE REPORT TORNADOES OR FUNNEL CLOUDS...WINDS OF 58 MPH OR
HIGHER...HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES OR LARGER...AND ANY WIND DAMAGE TO
YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE BY CALLING 956-504-1432.

&&

LAT...LON 2661 9749 2644 9763 2665 9790 2679 9777
TIME...MOT...LOC 2032Z 308DEG 22KT 2666 9775

$$

64
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Will NHC at least get a floater up if they will not have a invest?

Not likely.
Feel funny if we do this all over again tonight into tomm morning, as there are cells NW of Corpus

I've been out all day. Whats up with the atlantic storm?
Heard the first thunder at 10:30PM CDT last night and still hearing it at 4:00PM CDT now.

Ahhhhhhhh, sure as hell better than drought.
Quoting aspectre:
196 So tell me, why would I want to ignore people who are trying to confuse others?


If there is someone intentionally trying to confuse others, then you definitely should not ignore them. You should try to clearly point out errors and educate everyone on the fallacies of their material.
No doubt about this being a beautiful system to watch. Having my doubts if it will become anything hybrid in nature, though. Convection has been firing near the center recently, so we'll have to wait and see what happens.

Here is the 18z Surface Analysis. Is still attached to front.

Re: 209 -- I'm jealous, RitaEvac!

Re: 191 -- that is one depressingly dense stripe of dry air across South Florida....

Are we just hearing it from one or two people, or does it really look like we're transitioning to an El Nino stage? I know there's always supposed to be a lag effect, but any idea when things will change at the atmospheric level?

I keep fearing that so long as Puerto Rico continues to be inundated day-in & day-out, nothing's going to change for the better in South Florida.
Quoting wxmojo:


If there is someone intentionally trying to confuse others, then you definitely should not ignore them. You should try to clearly point out errors and educate everyone on the fallacies of their material.
Hey Keeper. You got a fix on this guy? Friend or foe?

Sorry. Newer handles who start taking up inordinate amount of blog space are always cause for suspicion on this site. Just the way it is.
AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
TRACKING A TORNADO OVER SOUTHERN KENEDY COUNTY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.


Wha???
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Looks like one of those low pressure areas in the Pacific that never do anything tropical/subtropical wise.

No invest yet..

Thought you were for a subtropical depression/storm forming the other day...
Is it just me, or does anyone else see the making of a low pressure system developing in S TX....looking at visible loop and looks like a coastal storm is gonna develop and move NE up the coast parallel with the SW flow aloft
Quoting:- 203. LargoFl

Quoting LargoFl:
its just downright awful, and imagine in 10-20 years from now..the cancer rates there


Its a "bit" worse than that.
If the holding vessel ruptures then the stuff in it will seriously heat up. Like a pan of water does when the water all boils away, nobody's watching it and the pan starts to burn.
This radioactive metal stuff will melt and probably boil, then it will start to fall to the ground floor, next it will melt and boil parts of the main building along with the floor, which will also melt as the pool of molten metal sinks into it, raising clouds of highly radioactive dust gases into the air, for a very long time.Decades etc.
Nobody knows what to do about this if and when it happens as you can't just go in there and shovel the stuff up and even if you did, what would you do with it. The stuff is so radioactive nothing can go anywhere near it.
Like I said,Catastrophic, is too mild a term for this scenario?
Quoting cyclonekid:
Thought you were for a subtropical depression/storm forming the other day...

I am for it, that doesn't mean I said it was likely to occur. :P
Quoting RitaEvac:
Is it just me, or does anyone else see the making of a low pressure system developing in S TX....looking at visible loop and looks like a coastal storm is gonna develop and move NE up the coast parallel with the SW flow aloft


The models predicted that a few days ago, which I mentioned yesterday.

And those questioning the 5 day rainfall totals were clearly shown wrong.

If anything, the models under-estimated the rainfall in Texas and perhaps parts of western Louisiana, with more to come if the coastal surface low develops.
Quoting RTSplayer:


The models predicted that a few days ago, which I mentioned yesterday.

And those questioning the 5 day rainfall totals were clearly shown wrong.

If anything, the models under-estimated the rainfall in Texas and perhaps parts of western Louisiana, with more to come if the coastal surface low develops.


Yea, but if it forms and stays far enough offshore most of the rains will stay offshore, looks like everything is pushing out to sea
Quoting PlazaRed:
Quoting:- 203. LargoFl



Its a "bit" worse than that.
If the holding vessel ruptures then the stuff in it will seriously heat up. Like a pan of water does when the water all boils away, nobody's watching it and the pan starts to burn.
This radioactive metal stuff will melt and probably boil, then it will start to fall to the ground floor, next it will melt and boil parts of the main building along with the floor, which will also melt as the pool of molten metal sinks into it, raising clouds of highly radioactive dust gases into the air, for a very long time.Decades etc.
Nobody knows what to do about this if and when it happens as you can't just go in there and shovel the stuff up and even if you did, what would you do with it. The stuff is so radioactive nothing can go anywhere near it.
Like I said,Catastrophic, is too mild a term for this scenario?


Unfortunately, this is one of the worst designed systems I have ever seen in my life.

This entire facility is like something you saw in an Austin Powers movie, or an old episode of the Bugs Bunny show.

I mean, it's as if they were TRYING to create a disaster with these plants' schematics, and especially the way spent fuel rods were handled.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Unfortunately, this is one of the worst designed systems I have ever seen in my life.

This entire facility is like something you saw in an Austin Powers movie, or an old episode of the Bugs Bunny show.

I mean, it's as if they were TRYING to create a disaster with these plants' schematics, and especially the way spent fuel rods were handled.


Just imagine who ever thought of putting the spent fuel rods 40 foot or whatever up in the air in the fist place?
I know the country is overcrowded and short of space but that was taking economy's to the ridiculas!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That pretty much tells the story.
Latest satellite images of the AOI in the Atlantic show convection firing near the center of circulation, indicative of a slightly more tropical nature. The million dollar question is, will it detach from the front?

It's been so dry, haven't had a decent rainfall for at least 2-3 weeks..
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

That pretty much tells the story.

The trees are debarked. I would be surprised if they did not upgrade this to an EF5.
The tornado warned storm in southern TX looks really impressive on radar... Very nice hook.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Incredible shot. Shots like that, with the tornado and the damage it caused in the same photo amaze me.

Tuscaloosa, April 27, 2011
Quoting Ameister12:

Incredible shot. Shots like that, with the tornado and the damage it caused in the same photo amaze me.

WOW
233. txjac
Quoting Ameister12:

Incredible shot. Shots like that, with the tornado and the damage it caused in the same photo amaze me.


Makes my heart ache
@ 218
article from last month published on Science Daily about a crystaline compound that cleans up nuclear waste... http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/03/12032 0151958.htm
today there is an article about using nanosponges to clean up oil spills... http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/04/12041 6130400.htm


Pa drought
Link if the image doesn't pop up:
Link
XX/AOI/XXL
MARK
35.25N/53.13W
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I am for it, that doesn't mean I said it was likely to occur. :P
Ahh. Should have worded it differently. LOL.

One of the last visible images of the day.

Quoting CybrTeddy:
Latest satellite images of the AOI in the Atlantic show convection firing near the center of circulation, indicative of a slightly more tropical nature. The million dollar question is, will it detach from the front?

That's the key right now...
And, Hi everyone
Quoting PlazaRed:
Quoting:- 203. LargoFl



Its a "bit" worse than that.
If the holding vessel ruptures then the stuff in it will seriously heat up. Like a pan of water does when the water all boils away, nobody's watching it and the pan starts to burn.
This radioactive metal stuff will melt and probably boil, then it will start to fall to the ground floor, next it will melt and boil parts of the main building along with the floor, which will also melt as the pool of molten metal sinks into it, raising clouds of highly radioactive dust gases into the air, for a very long time.Decades etc.
Nobody knows what to do about this if and when it happens as you can't just go in there and shovel the stuff up and even if you did, what would you do with it. The stuff is so radioactive nothing can go anywhere near it.
Like I said,Catastrophic, is too mild a term for this scenario?


A Visual Tour of the Fuel Pools of Fukushima
Hey everybody... there are a few storms with sizable hooks coming from mexico. Do you think these storms will stay as organized as they cross the border?
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey Keeper. You got a fix on this guy? Friend or foe?

Sorry. Newer handles who start taking up inordinate amount of blog space are always cause for suspicion on this site. Just the way it is.
a friend gonna do a circle dance to entertain us
Quoting cyclonekid:
Ahh. Should have worded it differently. LOL.

One of the last visible images of the day.


Hasta Manana, Alberto?
243. Zappy


So hot... 92 today. This is going to dry the soil even faster. What we need is a good rainstorm. I believe the current deficit is 5-6 inches. Plus almost a total lack of snow.
We're now at the 45 day mark until hurricane season.

We're also looking at 28 days until the start of the EPAC hurricane season.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We're now at the 45 day mark until hurricane season.

We're also looking at 28 days until the start of the EPAC hurricane season.

Why can't it be sooner?
246. txjac
Quoting Zappy:


So hot... 92 today. This is going to dry the soil even faster. What we need is a good rainstorm. I believe the current deficit is 5-6 inches. Plus almost a total lack of snow.


Hope you get some rain soon. I was miserable last year in Texas when we were in our extreme drought and had no relief until this year
247. txjac
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Why can't it be sooner?



Patience my friend ...it will be here soon enough.
248. Zappy
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We're now at the 45 day mark until hurricane season.

We're also looking at 28 days until the start of the EPAC hurricane season.


And I will celebrate when it's over. After the dreadful experience with Irene and having no power for a week, and then being forced to relive that with Snowtober, hurricanes don't make me happy anymore.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
We're now at the 45 day mark until hurricane season.

We're also looking at 28 days until the start of the EPAC hurricane season.


Cybr, you think that if NHC didn't pull the trigger today to have a invest, that means it will never be up?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Cybr, you think that if NHC didn't pull the trigger today to have a invest, that means it will never be up?


Defiantly not. I've seen them call invest less than 5 hours before classification (Claudette in 2009)
Quoting Zappy:


And I will celebrate when it's over. After the dreadful experience with Irene and having no power for a week, and then being forced to relive that with Snowtober, hurricanes don't make me happy anymore.

Hey that happened to me too... Good times.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Hey that happened to me too... Good times.


Happened to me in 2003.
I watched the Wichita tornado on radar from the time it developed a hook echo while it was the southernmost of two storms moving northeast in Oklahoma, till it hit Wichita.

I watched live, streaming video of it from the storm chasers who were on it and witnessed it as a lowering wall cloud, then as it dropped a funnel, then hit the ground and grow into a monster... eventually spawning a satellite tornado as well, via chaser video. It stayed on the ground for mile after mile making a beeline northeastward. Straight towards my parents homes in Wichita, but for the first hour or so I wasn't concerned, expecting it to use up its energy and dissipate long before reaching Wichita.

As time went by and it didn't dissipate, I went from concerned, to alarmed to utterly terrified (and called my parents to tell them to take cover!) as it approached the Derby/Haysville area just south of Wichita, still on the same straight line path to Mom & Dad!

And then... it did what I guess we'd call the equivalent of an eye wall replacement cycle for a tornado... the hook echo fell apart, and suddenly the center of rotation skipped straight eastward, before reforming and continuing it's northeastern path.
That jog to the east is what saved the heart of Wichita from the tornado. And my parents as well. :)
Unfortunately it hit the airplane manufacturers and the Air Force Base pretty hard.

If the tornado hadn't done that shift to the east I believe a lot of lives would have been lost, because many homes in Wichita have no basements due to the high water table there.
If this verifies we will end the drought in FL this weekend or atleast put a huge dent in it. This is very encouraging!

255. txjac
Quoting SherwoodSpirit:
I watched the Wichita tornado on radar from the time it developed a hook echo while it was the southernmost of two storms moving northeast in Oklahoma, till it hit Wichita.

I watched live, streaming video of it from the storm chasers who were on it and witnessed it as a lowering wall cloud, then as it dropped a funnel, then hit the ground and grow into a monster... eventually spawning a satellite tornado as well, via chaser video. It stayed on the ground for mile after mile making a beeline northeastward. Straight towards my parents homes in Wichita, but for the first hour or so I wasn't concerned, expecting it to use up its energy and dissipate long before reaching Wichita.

As time went by and it didn't dissipate, I went from concerned, to alarmed to utterly terrified (and called my parents to tell them to take cover!) as it approached the Derby/Haysville area just south of Wichita, still on the same straight line path to Mom & Dad!

And then... it did what I guess we'd call the equivalent of an eye wall replacement cycle for a tornado... the hook echo fell apart, and suddenly the center of rotation skipped straight eastward, before reforming and continuing it's northeastern path.
That jog to the east is what saved the heart of Wichita from the tornado. And my parents as well. :)
Unfortunately it hit the airplane manufacturers and the Air Force Base pretty hard.

If the tornado hadn't done that shift to the east I believe a lot of lives would have been lost, because many homes in Wichita have no basements due to the high water table there.


Wow, that had to be horrible. Watching this go on and not being able to do a thing except call and tell them to take cover. Happy to hear that it worked out though for your Mom and Dad
Quoting StormTracker2K:
If this verifies we will end the drought in FL this weekend or atleast put a huge dent in it. This is very encouraging!



Could might give us a good start to the rainy season too! It will cause dew points and humidity to go up, and thunderstorms will start going by mid-May.. instead of late-June like the last two years.
242 PlazaRed: Hasta Manana, Alberto?

Dunno about seeing Alberto tomorrow, but there's a chance of seeing 91L around dawn.
Looks a LOT better than 30-or-so hours ago when it was surrounded by nothing but LONG stretches of dry air all the way from the westnorthwest through to the southsouthwest, and from the south through to the eastsoutheast.

Though I gotta admit Alberto al alba has a certain je ne sais quoi...
...STORM WARNING...
.LOW 35N51W 998 MB MOVING W 15 KT. WITHIN 240 NM NW QUADRANT
WINDS 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 12 TO 18 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N TO 42N
BETWEEN 41W AND 56W WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 14 FT. ALSO
FROM 31N TO 43N BETWEEN 37W AND 59W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS TO 9
FT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST LOW 35N57W 1000 MB. WITHIN 240 NM OF LOW
CENTER WINDS 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 20 FT. ELSEWHERE FROM 31N
TO 42N BETWEEN 38W AND 64W WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT.
.48 HOUR FORECAST LOW 32N59W 1005 MB. FROM 31N TO 39N BETWEEN
42W AND 64W WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT.



Link
If reactor unit 4 -- with 1,535 fuel rods in the spent fuel pool 100feet(30metres) above the ground -- collapses, not only will it cause a shutdown of all six reactors but will also affect the common spent fuel pool containing 6,375 fuel rods, located some 50metres[164feet] from reactor 4.
...the total number of the spent fuel rods at the Fukushima Daiichi site excluding the rods in the pressure vessel[s] is 11,421 (396 plus 615 plus 566 plus 1,535 plus 994 plus 940 plus 6375)
Quoting StormTracker2K:
If this verifies we will end the drought in FL this weekend or atleast put a huge dent in it. This is very encouraging!

hope this pans out st..just looked at my local 10 day in advance..by me we dont get below 64 on sunday, with a high of 73
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
422 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-170430-
/O.NEW.KGRR.FZ.W.0010.120417T0600Z-120417T1300Z/
/O.CON.KGRR.WI.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-120417T0200Z/
MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-I SABELLA-MUSKEGON-
MONTCALM-GRATIOT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUDINGTON...BALDWIN...REED CITY...
CLARE...HART...FREMONT...BIG RAPIDS...MOUNT PLEASANT...MUSKEGON...
GREENVILLE...ALMA
422 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT TUESDAY.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...

* SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SUSTAIN IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH
RANGE THIS EVENING.

* WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE COMMON THROUGH SUNSET.

* AFTER THE WINDS SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 DEGREES.

IMPACTS...

* DOWNED TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING.

* POWER OUTAGES WILL BE QUITE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA.

* TENDER VEGETATION WILL NEED TO BE PROTECTED OVERNIGHT AS
TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW FREEZING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

* A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 TO 39 MPH OR
GUSTS BETWEEN 45 AND 57 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS
STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

* WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT
HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG.

* A FREEZE WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO THREATEN OUTDOOR PLANTS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS IN THE WARNED AREA ARE ADVISED TO HARVEST OR
PROTECT TENDER VEGETATION. ALSO... POTTED PLANTS NORMALLY
LEFT OUTDOORS SHOULD BE COVERED OR BROUGHT INSIDE AWAY FROM
THE COLD.

&&

$$
Quoting StormTracker2K:
If this verifies we will end the drought in FL this weekend or atleast put a huge dent in it. This is very encouraging!



In my neck of the woods JAX has recorded their driest 1/1 - 4/15 since 1921 and was at least 15" below normal last year. If this were to materialize and we receive 2" it won't do much to help the long term deficit.

.CLIMATE...
THE YEAR TO DATE PRECIPITATION OF 3.53 INCHES THROUGH APRIL 15TH
NOW RANKS 4TH DRIEST ALL-TIME AT JACKSONVILLE AND IS THE DRIEST
START TO A YEAR SINCE 1921. IT IS THE 6TH DRIEST ALL-TIME IN
GAINESVILLE AND THE 9TH DRIEST ALL-TIME AT ST SIMONS ISLAND AND
ALMA GEORGIA.
If these Extreme and Exceptional drought conditions in much of Georgia persist I'd like to ask a favor of this years Alberto, if I may, for when he forms (soon right? Right?!)

Dear Alberto, if we're still in a drought please become inspired by your older brother from '94. However, don't be as rash, take off your shoes, no need to pound on the door till it breaks. GENTLY park yourself over our fair state for a spell. You can visit Florida while you're on the run up here. They have citrus. We have peaches. Enjoy!

Love, the south.
Quoting dogsgomoo:
If these Extreme and Exceptional drought conditions in much of Georgia persist I'd like to ask a favor of this years Alberto, if I may, for when he forms (soon right? Right?!)

Dear Alberto, if we're still in a drought please become inspired by your older brother from '94. However, don't be as rash, take of your shoes,no need to pound on the door till it breaks. GENTLY park yourself over our fair state for a spell. You can visit Florida while you're on the run up here.

Love, the south.

I would hope for Beryl. It has a history of being weak, slow-moving, and has affected the USA all times but once since its name was first tagged on a tropical cyclone in 1982.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I would hope for Beryl. It has a history of being weak, slow-moving, and has affected the USA all times but once since its name was first tagged on a tropical cyclone in 1982.

DO A BERYL ROLL!

lol.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
If this verifies we will end the drought in FL this weekend or atleast put a huge dent in it. This is very encouraging!

Sweet my lawn needs something to be happy about.
from frank Strait

Yes, I saw the big gale center over the middle of the Atlantic. Yes, I see how it looks like a hurricane. Yes, I see how thunderstorms are developing near the storm center. No, it's not a tropical system nor will it be. But, it is pretty cool to watch.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
If this verifies we will end the drought in FL this weekend or atleast put a huge dent in it. This is very encouraging!




I really hope the models continue this trend, it is desperately dry here, we are still under 5 inches of rain for the whole year...


The local MET's were saying the currently models are looking great for drought relief, however they note it is still several days out and the models could shift away and trend drier as they have before. I agree, we still have several days to go, and I have seen models paint impressive storm events this far out this year only to watch them back off the solution and/or the even fails to live up to expectations.


This is probably one of the most inactive extended weather patterns Ive ever seen, I have seen only 1 or 2 strong storms this entire year so far and that is about it, its been that lame.

BTW its unlikely it will end the drought, my year to date is about 1/3 of what is should be, so if we get 8 inches of rain this weekend the drought will be gone, I doubt that will happen, lol. But we will take any relief we can get. Hopefully we will get an action packed wet season that will erase all evidence of drought. I have seen terrible droughts this time of year turn into endless rain/thunderstorms and massive surpluses by August before, hopefully that will happen.

Quoting ncstorm:
from frank Strait

Yes, I saw the big gale center over the middle of the Atlantic. Yes, I see how it looks like a hurricane. Yes, I see how thunderstorms are developing near the storm center. No, it's not a tropical system nor will it be. But, it is pretty cool to watch.

It doesn't look like a hurricane, nor will it be.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Happened to me in 2003.

Happened to me in 2008.
Ike
Quoting ncstorm:
from frank Strait

Yes, I saw the big gale center over the middle of the Atlantic. Yes, I see how it looks like a hurricane. Yes, I see how thunderstorms are developing near the storm center. No, it's not a tropical system nor will it be. But, it is pretty cool to watch.

I'm not a huge Frank Strait fan but I think he's right in this case... We won't see anything tropical out of this.
Good evening all
I heard that the GFS is predicting an tornado outbreak in about a week....is this true?
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all
I heard that the GFS is predicting an tornado outbreak in about a week....is this true?


Yes for the SouthEAST!
This is valid for like 7 more minutes... Pretty big watch:

What I would like to see is a thunderstorm that would look like this:

and would bring 5 to 6 inches of rain in a couple hours turning my yard into this:



Yes that thunderstorm happened last year and caused that flooding, it dumped roughly 5 to 6 inches within 2 hours, it also was tornado warned and produced 60 mph winds here and incredible lightning that caused a fire about a mile away, and that's me standing in the flood waters afterward.


I would really like to see some of this above return instead of all this drought :)
Update on the Woodward, Oklahoma tornado that occurred just after midnight April 15, 2012.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
441 PM CDT MON APR 16 2012...CORRECTED MAX WIND SPEED

...PRELIMINARY STORM INFORMATION FOR THE WOODWARD OKLAHOMA TORNADO...

BEGINNING TIME: ~1150 PM
ENDING TIME: ~1227 AM
BEGINNING LOCATION: 2 NE ARNETT (ELLIS COUNTY)
ENDING LOCATION: 4 NORTH OF WOODWARD (WOODWARD COUNTY)
FATALITIES: 6
INJURIES: 29
EF-SCALE RATING: EF-3 ( MAX WIND SPEED 136-165 MPH )

THE TORNADO DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 3 MILES NORTHEAST OF ARNETT AND
MOVED NORTHEAST. SIX STRUCTURES WERE DAMAGED AS THE TORNADO MOVED
TOWARD THE WOODWARD COUNTY LINE. ONLY MINOR DAMAGE... DOWNED TREES
AND POWER POLES/LINES... WAS SEEN AS THE TORNADO MOVED OVER MAINLY
RURAL PORTIONS OF WOODWARD COUNTY. AT APPROXIMATELY 1212 AM... THE
TORNADO STRUCK TWO MOBILE HOMES 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WOODWARD. THE
DAMAGE HERE WAS DETERMINED TO BE EF-2 IN INTENSITY... WHICH ALSO
RESULTED IN 3 FATALITIES. THE HEAVIEST DAMAGE... RATED EF-3... WAS
REPORTED AS THE TORNADO ENTERED THE SOUTHWEST SIDES OF WOODWARD
AROUND 1218 AM. SEVERAL HOME AND BUSINESSES WERE HEAVILY DAMAGED AS
THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST. SEVERAL MORE MOBILE HOMES WERE
DESTROYED ON THE NORTH SIDE OF WOODWARD... WHICH RESULTED IN 3
ADDITIONAL FATALITIES. THE TORNADO FINALLY EXITED THE CITY OF
WOODWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 1223 AM... EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING
APPROXIMATELY 4 MILES NORTH OF WOODWARD AT 1227 AM.

THIS TORNADO INFORMATION SHOULD STILL BE CONSIDERED PRELIMINARY AS
WE CONTINUE TO LOOK OVER INFORMATION.

$$
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all
I heard that the GFS is predicting an tornado outbreak in about a week....is this true?

Who told you that? Other than a few isolated severe thunderstorms pretty much everyday over the next week, nothing significant lies on the horizon.
TCHP is really skyrocketing
April 15, 2011

April15, 2012
Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all
I heard that the GFS is predicting an tornado outbreak in about a week....is this true?


Frank Strait just put out a video concerning your question

Looks like NC/SC will be looking at severe weather Saturday Night

Stormy Areas Through This Weekend
www.accuweather.com
We have a lesser storm to deal with over the next couple of days, followed by a potentially big one this weekend. Next week looks quiet and very warm west of the Mississippi.
280. 882MB
Yes nigel20,but, i just saw the new run of the GFS 18z and shows a very potent trough with a surface low moving though central florida, ECMWF model has it by north florida georgia, border. If this verifies florida could see some strong to severe thunderstorms and ,I saw the 500 mb heigts quite impressive, alot of rotation, so my opinion is that there sould be some tornadic activity across the florida peninsula!
Quoting RTSplayer:


Unfortunately, this is one of the worst designed systems I have ever seen in my life.

This entire facility is like something you saw in an Austin Powers movie, or an old episode of the Bugs Bunny show.

I mean, it's as if they were TRYING to create a disaster with these plants' schematics, and especially the way spent fuel rods were handled.
Main flaw was the notion that finding a disposal plan for spent rods would be quick and easy. There are plenty of similar sites scattered round the globe.
Instability, shear, moisture, lift, and temperatures are sufficient enough to get a few severe thunderstorms in Florida on Saturday and Sunday as a cut-off low pressure area moves across the state, but there definitely won't be a tornado outbreak, and it definitely will not occur in the Carolinas.

No mention of Atlantic low at the 8:05 PM EDT discussion.

Link
I forgot to mention that several spots in MA hit 95 degrees today... That's about 40 degrees above average.
I know its a lot of components involved in a severe weather..no one is talking about what happened this past saturday as happening but I understood the more negative the number was, the better the severe weather threat is..and The GFS always trends back west with a upcoming storm (learned that on a winter blog this year)

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
No mention at the 8:05 PM EDT discussion of Atlantic low.

Link


????

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
35N52W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT.
Miami NWS Discussion

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD EVEN BE STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
CWA...DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SO SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE MIAMI
NATIONAL WEATHER OFFICE THROUGH THE WEEK ON THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
STORMS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
High winds slowed sown the readying of Discovery for the flight to D.C...but she's prepared to go anyway. Said good-bye today. I should get more pics tomorrow, with a better camera.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I forgot to mention that several spots in MA hit 95 degrees today... That's about 40 degrees above average.

95...or 85?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who told you that? Other than a few isolated severe thunderstorms pretty much everyday over the next week, nothing significant lies on the horizon.



NOT TRUE ....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

95...or 85?

95

Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


????

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR
35N52W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FRONT.


Yes,I missed the sentence.
Quoting ncstorm:


Frank Strait just put out a video concerning your question

Looks like NC/SC will be looking at severe weather Saturday Night

Stormy Areas Through This Weekend
www.accuweather.com
We have a lesser storm to deal with over the next couple of days, followed by a potentially big one this weekend. Next week looks quiet and very warm west of the Mississippi.

Thanks much ncstorm
Quoting TampaSpin:



NOT TRUE ....

Completely true. I can do a detailed analysis of what the GFS shows if you think I am giving out inaccurate information.
Quoting 882MB:
Yes nigel20,but, i just saw the new run of the GFS 18z and shows a very potent trough with a surface low moving though central florida, ECMWF model has it by north florida georgia, border. If this verifies florida could see some strong to severe thunderstorms and ,I saw the 500 mb heigts quite impressive, alot of rotation, so my opinion is that there sould be some tornadic activity across the florida peninsula!

thanks as well
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Completely true. I can do a detailed analysis of what the GFS shows if you think I am giving out inaccurate information.



LOL...The GFS MODEL and the EURO are both showing the same JET STREAM DIP in the SOUTHEAST...FOR YOU TO Say it won't is very inaccurate....to say its more than likely not going to occur is more accurate. BLOG ON....
Quoting TampaSpin:



LOL...The GFS MODEL and the EURO are both showing the same JET STREAM DIP in the SOUTHEAST...FOR YOU TO Say it won't is very inaccurate....to say its more than likely not going to occur is more accurate. BLOG ON....

Jet Stream configuration isn't the only player in severe weather forecasting.

I'll be back in about 30 minutes and will post then.
Quoting Grothar:



Whats up Grothar?
Seems like (hope not too late)Unit 4 works will begin...


General Plan and Start of Main Work of the Cover for Fuel Removal of Unit 4 in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station
Source: TEPCO Press Release
Date: Apr 16, 2012

Based on Mid-to-Long-Term Roadmap towards the Decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Unit 1-4 which was announced on Dec. 21, 2011, we started the preparation work for the installation of the cover for fuel removal of Unit 4 on Mar. 23, 2012.

We would like to inform that we will start the main work for the installation of the cover for fuel removal on Apr. 17.

As the first step of the main work, we will conduct the foundation improvement work in order to strengthen the foundation which supports the foundation of the frame for supporting the crane which is a part of the cover for fuel removal.

At the same time, we will conduct the countermeasure to prevent rainwater from penetrating into Unit 4 Reactor Building.

Attachment: General plan of the cover for fuel removal of Unit 4 in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (PDF 121KB)

Image of the cover for fuel removal of Unit 4 in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (This picture shows only a image of the general plan, therefore it can differ from the actual structure.)


http://enenews.com/tepco-foundation-improvement-w ork-begins-tomorrow-at-reactor-no-4-also-trying-to -prevent-rainwater-penetration-photos-english
Quoting StormTracker2K:
If this verifies we will end the drought in FL this weekend or atleast put a huge dent in it. This is very encouraging!


I wish you guys in US to send some heavy downpours down here to cayman

Quoting nigel20:
TCHP is really skyrocketing
April 15, 2011

April15, 2012

yep soon it may look like
and then maybe this
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

I wish you guys in US to send some heavy downpours down here to cayman


yep soon it may look like
and then maybe this

How are in wunderkidcayman...are getting any rain there in Cayman?
I think 2005 and 2010 had some of the warmest SST's which help to increase the TCHP
Vertical shear is just about average in the topical atlantic at the moment
Quoting Ameister12:

Incredible shot. Shots like that, with the tornado and the damage it caused in the same photo amaze me.

Tuscaloosa, April 27, 2011


It appears that someone is pinned under that red SUV.
Quoting TampaSpin:
i know now why i don't come here very often.....this place just never changes with the KIDDIES running the show......LATER ALL!


Tone down the caps, will you, and jealous much?
Eastern pacific vertical shear


Bring it on.
Florida is a wet state.
We like the rain.
Quoting nigel20:

How are in wunderkidcayman...are getting any rain there in Cayman?
I think 2005 and 2010 had some of the warmest SST's which help to increase the TCHP

well I guess I am ok we had a for the most part overcast day and a good moderate shower but still not enough we would need about 3-6 day of overcast and rain to make the Island happy yes I agree but this year I believe this year will have alot of surprises and may exciede some forecast
Quoting Chicklit:


Bring it on.
Florida is a wet state.
We like the rain.

what if it fizzle out?
Dontcha just love it when flashers come on the blog and make dunciatory statements without contributing anything?
Good grief and good night.
Quoting nigel20:

what if it fizzle out?

That's a likely scenario, Nigel.
It's been very dry here for quite a long time.
NWS Miami not going with GFS yet in its 7 day despite its statement.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well I guess I am ok we had a for the most part overcast day and a good moderate shower but still not enough we would need about 3-6 day of overcast and rain to make the Island happy yes I agree but this year I believe this year will have alot of surprises and may exciede some forecast

We had light to moderate showers Saturday and Sunday and it was overcast all day. I agree, we may indeed get a few surprises in the 2012 hurricane season
Good Evening. That is one big frontal remnant heading into the Gulf but sheer is too great this time of the year for any development in spite of the warm temps in the Gulf. Hope it stays together and brings some rain to the Florida. Link
Quoting caneswatch:


Tone down the caps, will you, and jealous much?



LMAO....jealous...LOL
Quoting TampaSpin:



LMAO....jealous...LOL


Everyone has the right to post what they think, including the kids. If you have a problem with the kids posting, take it up with admins.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Good Evening. That is one big frontal remnant heading into the Gulf but sheer is too great this time of the year for any development in spite of the warm temps in the Gulf. Hope it stays together and brings some rain to the Florida. Link



I was thinking the same...any kind of stall on the tail something could develop...something to watch for sure as the tail will be extended for a while...
Did you notice how the ITCZ is trying to move NORTH some....things are trying to get in place slightly early it appears.
Quoting TampaSpin:



I was thinking the same...any kind of stall on the tail something could develop...something to watch for sure as the tail will be extended for a while...
Did you notice how the ITCZ is trying to move NORTH some....things are trying to get in place slightly early it appears.


A little too early yet but the ITCZ is an interesting watch....Will be interesting to see how well the E-Pac season kicks off in the few weeks with the active ITCZ.
Reached 29.2C (84.5F) here today on my weather station near Montreal, Quebec even with a couple of hours of cloud cover.

The official weather station there registered 28C or 2C below the all-time record high for April which was set on the 27th, 1990.

The dry ground (only 6.6mm of rain since April 1st which is around 20% of normal... also, only about 20mm in the last month since March the 17th) probably bumped up the temperature that much more.
Quoting TampaSpin:
i know now why i don't come here very often.....this place just never changes with the KIDDIES running the show......LATER ALL!

and I know now why I don't associate with you anymore, Tim. Here, let me be the better person and give my evidence we won't have any significant severe weather events over the next week with this upcoming longwave trough instead of just blatantly accusing people on being inaccurate.

You see this cutoff low?



Significant severe weather events are almost non-existent with cutoff lows due to the fact that they have very little to no surface reflection. In order for a tornado to form, you need good turning with height. Ideal tornado conditions are winds coming from the south at the 850 mbar level and winds from the west at 200 mbar level. Now let's take a look at a sounding from Florida.



Hmm...straight winds at the surface. Very slim chance of a tornado.

If that weren't enough, instability is forecast to be meager. While I understand that low instability can support significant severe weather as long as there is strong wind shear, there isn't. In fact, wind shear is very weak.
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


A little too early yet but the ITCZ is an interesting watch....Will be interesting to see how well the E-Pac season kicks off in the few weeks with the active ITCZ.


Yep..gotta run....good to see ya weathermanwannabe! Have a good evening my friend!
Quoting caneswatch:


Everyone has the right to post what they think, including the kids. If you have a problem with the kids posting, take it up with admins.


Didn't know we were causin this many problems:/

This rain won't stop, and it looks like a surface low is in the gulf heading our way. I hope Florida gets a lot of this lord knows they need it.
Wow TCHP has really went through the roof.Any who God has answered my prayers!.And rain is coming for us!.On Wen,Sat,and Sunday!!!.Woot woot!.
GEOS-5 cuts that off & ramps that in the gulf a lot more than the others. Maybe on to something given the way it all looks on satellite.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

and I know now why I don't associate with you anymore, Tim. Here, let me be the better person and give my evidence we won't have any significant severe weather events over the next week with this upcoming longwave trough instead of just blatantly accusing people on being inaccurate.

You see this cutoff low?



Significant severe weather events are almost non-existent with cutoff lows due to the fact that they have very little to no surface reflection. In order for a tornado to form, you need good turning with height. Ideal tornado conditions are winds coming from the south at the 850 mbar level and winds from the west at 200 mbar level. Now let's take a look at a sounding from Florida.



Hmm...straight winds at the surface. Very slim chance of a tornado.

If that weren't enough, instability is forecast to be meager. While I understand that low instability can support significant severe weather as long as there is strong wind shear, there isn't. In fact, wind shear is very weak.


Sered by "the kid" haha I can't believe how much rain Is coming my way!!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

and I know now why I don't associate with you anymore, Tim. Here, let me be the better person and give my evidence we won't have any significant severe weather events over the next week with this upcoming longwave trough instead of just blatantly accusing people on being inaccurate.

You see this cutoff low?



Significant severe weather events are almost non-existent with cutoff lows due to the fact that they have very little to no surface reflection. In order for a tornado to form, you need good turning with height. Ideal tornado conditions are winds coming from the south at the 850 mbar level and winds from the west at 200 mbar level. Now let's take a look at a sounding from Florida.



Hmm...straight winds at the surface. Very slim chance of a tornado.



NOW your using the words SLIM CHANCE i see! You see the EURO still shows a Dip and not a Cut off...so for you say earlier that it was completely inaccurate i just said that is a false statement....maybe your choice of words needs to improve.

From the HPC long range discussion

THE 12Z GFS HAS BECOME NOTICEABLY DEEPER ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST BY DAYS 5-6
BUT HAS GOOD CONTINUITY ELSEWHERE. GIVEN
THAT EARLIER PREFERENCES ALREADY INCORPORATED ABOUT ONE HALF OF
ITS STRENGTH AND THAT NO OTHER 12Z SOLUTION IS AS DEEP...THIS
INTERMEDIATE PREFERENCE WILL REMAIN PREFERRED UNTIL SUFFICIENT
EVIDENCE SUGGESTS OTHERWISE. THIS APPROACH SUPPORTS WET CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD...WHILE POTENTIALLY
RAINY AND WINDY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE EAST
COAST NEXT WEEKEND.
330. skook
slim chance = tornado outbreak?...






Always spreading the DOOM message...
Quoting TampaSpin:



NOW your using the words SLIM CHANCE i see! You see the EURO still shows a Dip and not a Cut off...so for you say earlier that it was completely inaccurate i just said that is a false statement....maybe your choice of words needs to improve.


Actually he said very slim chance... There's no shear, that's the problem- Maybe just conducive for a couple weak tornadoes... Plus this thing is a ways off so plenty of time for change.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

and I know now why I don't associate with you anymore, Tim. Here, let me be the better person and give my evidence we won't have any significant severe weather events over the next week with this upcoming longwave trough instead of just blatantly accusing people on being inaccurate.

You see this cutoff low?



Significant severe weather events are almost non-existent with cutoff lows due to the fact that they have very little to no surface reflection. In order for a tornado to form, you need good turning with height. Ideal tornado conditions are winds coming from the south at the 850 mbar level and winds from the west at 200 mbar level. Now let's take a look at a sounding from Florida.



Hmm...straight winds at the surface. Very slim chance of a tornado.

If that weren't enough, instability is forecast to be meager. While I understand that low instability can support significant severe weather as long as there is strong wind shear, there isn't. In fact, wind shear is very weak.


Instability is forecast to be meager? You might want to rethink that statement, that's not what the NWS seems to think, you are correct about wind shear and lack of tornado threat but if current trends continue there will be decent instability present around here in Central Florida this weekend, colder air aloft will be moving atop a very warm and increasingly moist air mass, that's all that you need to know.


Of course I don't think we see a severe weather outbreak, shear doesn't look impressive at all right now, and there probably will be a lack of surface convergence/lift. That has been a consistently lacking factor around here in the last couple months.


Furthermore, there are several days left till this system arrives, so getting in a heated argument probably isn't worth it, just sayin :)
Quoting TampaSpin:



NOW your using the words SLIM CHANCE i see! You see the EURO still shows a Dip and not a Cut off...so for you say earlier that it was completely inaccurate i just said that is a false statement....maybe your choice of words needs to improve.



Did you see the skew-t chart, the instability is fairly low and there isn't much churning in the atmosphere to get thinks spinning.

Also, it's all in the model you use.

He used the gfs and you used the euro.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Yep..gotta run....good to see ya weathermanwannabe! Have a good evening my friend!


You too.............
I would wait on the 6z and 12z runs of the GFS..the 18Z and 00z runs have been notorius in putting out poorer runs..Lets wait and see what the 6z/12z runs say about the severe weather threat supposedly this weekend.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Instability is forecast to be meager? You might want to rethink that statement, that's not what the NWS seems to think, you are correct about wind shear and lack of tornado threat but if current model trends continue there will be plenty of instability present around here in Central Florida this weekend, colder air aloft will be moving atop a very warm and increasingly moist air mass, that's all that you need to know.


Of course I don't think we see a severe weather outbreak, shear doesn't look impressive at all right now, and there probably will be a lack of surface convergence/lift. That has been a consistently lacking factor around here in the last couple months.


Furthermore there are several days left till this system arrives, so getting in a heated argument probably isn't worth it, just sayin :)

Instability in Florida lies between 250-750 j/kg according to the GFS. I'm not sure if this is considered sufficient in Florida as they seem to have different thermodynamics than the rest of the USA, but without strong wind shear, instability is very low.

Quoting weatherh98:


Did you see the skew-t chart, the instability is fairly low and there isn't much churning in the atmosphere to get thinks spinning.

Also, it's all in the model you use.

He used the gfs and you used the euro.


the euro is a better model than the GFS
Quoting ncstorm:


the euro is a better model than the GFS

Lately the GFS has dominated though.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Instability is forecast to be meager? You might want to rethink that statement, that's not what the NWS seems to think, you are correct about wind shear and lack of tornado threat but if current model trends continue there will be plenty of instability present around here in Central Florida this weekend, colder air aloft will be moving atop a very warm and increasingly moist air mass, that's all that you need to know.


Of course I don't think we see a severe weather outbreak, shear doesn't look impressive at all right now, and there probably will be a lack of surface convergence/lift. That has been a consistently lacking factor around here in the last couple months.


Furthermore there are several days left till this system arrives, so getting in a heated argument probably isn't worth it, just sayin :)


Agree :)

Quoting ncstorm:


the euro is a better model than the GFS


Yes I know, especially when it comes to the Upper atmosphere, I was just pointing out the differences
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Lately the GFS has dominated though.


um..no it hasnt..the euro is always the first model to pick up the threats..GFS jumps on the bandwagon much later
Quoting weatherh98:


Didn't know we were causin this many problems:/

This rain won't stop, and it looks like a surface low is in the gulf heading our way. I hope Florida gets a lot of this lord knows they need it.


Even though I disagree with who you listen to, you stick to everything you say weather-wise. You may be a kid but I don't really care about yours or anyones age, especially Grothar's LOL
With this insane pattern that we've had all winter-spring it feels like Florida weather.The people will be sick of summer by as early as June XD.
You'd be surprised on what Florida can pull out of it's metaphorical rear end even if the instability is low with a little day time heating.
Quoting ncstorm:


um..no it hasnt..the euro is always the first model to pick up the threats..GFS jumps on the bandwagon much later

How is that possible when the GFS goes out to 384 hours and the ECMWF goes out to 240 hours? lol.
Quoting ncstorm:


um..no it hasnt..the euro is always the first model to pick up the threats..GFS jumps on the bandwagon much later

The GFS has been very good with the recent tornado outbreaks and seems to be outperforming the Euro on the area being monitored in the Atlantic
Historically though, yes, the Euro is better, but the GFS is on a hot streak

Night all.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How is that possible when the GFS goes out to 384 hours and the ECMWF goes out to 240 hours? lol.


its possible because anything past 144 hours on ANY model is subject but I know you guys arent saying the GFS is better than the Euro? really? LOL!!
Quoting caneswatch:


Even though I disagree with who you listen to, you stick to everything you say weather-wise. You may be a kid but I don't really care about yours or anyones age, especially Grothar's LOL


Haha good chuckle!!

I wont go into RL:P

Thanks I appreciate that.
Quoting ncstorm:


its possible because anything past 144 hours on ANY model is subject but I know you guys arent saying the GFS is better than the Euro? really? LOL!!

You act like the ECMWF isn't surpassed by other models some times. The Euro is not god, although it does perform very well. It performed poorly with the March 2 event until a few days before the event, while the GFS nailed it over a week out.
well Florida is the lightning capital of the United States.All though D.C has had some rough Thunderstorms already this year.So..it really does feel like Florida.Seems like I don't even need to move down there now.
Quoting TampaSpin:



NOW your using the words SLIM CHANCE i see! You see the EURO still shows a Dip and not a Cut off...so for you say earlier that it was completely inaccurate i just said that is a false statement....maybe your choice of words needs to improve.



He used slim chance from the beginning. I'm not gonna respond to your last sentence, sounds like a troll.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You act like the ECMWF isn't surpassed by other models some times. The Euro is not god, although it does perform very well. It performed poorly with the March 2 event until a few days before the event, while the GFS nailed it over a week out.


no one saying the Euro is god but it is a MUCH better model than the GFS..we werent talking about other models..we were talking about the GFS vs the Euro..someone posted an article here last week on its performance against the GFS and well the GFS paled in comparism.
Quoting washingtonian115:
well Florida is the lightning capital of the United States.All though D.C has had some rough Thunderstorms already this year.So..it really does feel like Florida.Seems like I don't even need to move down there now.


Ehh you don't want the humidity we get down here on the gulf coast constantly, y'all get it occasionally but we have to deal with it DAILY.
Quoting caneswatch:


He used slim chance from the beginning. I'm not gonna respond to your last sentence, sounds like a troll.

Tim and I apparently have a long history. But that doesn't matter, I really don't care what he thinks sadly.

Back to the weather.
But the GFS is good with pin pointing cape verde hurricane.I've seen it predict storms two weeks out in advance and nail it.
Quoting wxmojo:


There are tons of different projections to mitigate spherical distortions. What projection algorithm is being used on the images being presented, I know not. Nevertheless, the rectangles and circles inarguably align with certain weather features (though some will argue none the less).

If these illustrations are sowing confusion for you, then hit the "ignore user" action for wxmojo, and I will be forever out of your thoughts.


There are a number of user who won't ignore someone making claims such as these. These members help keep the board from becoming a conspiracy fueled, burn-the-witch, I-see-dead-people, my-toe-is-a-radio-to-aliens nut fest.

If these "correlation grids" make useful scientifically valid and verified claims, then kindly provide the source for this information. Otherwise, it's little more than pseudo-scientific nonsense.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Instability in Florida lies between 250-750 j/kg according to the GFS. I'm not sure if this is considered sufficient in Florida as they seem to have different thermodynamics than the rest of the USA, but without strong wind shear, instability is very low.



Well sometimes you have to look at the overall consensus of model trends rather than exact number outputs, I'm not sure why the GFS would be showing such low numbers like that considering most models agree on colder air aloft moving overhead, it even looks like the GFS is showing placement of colder air aloft moving in, which makes it even stranger.

Yes Florida can have different thermodynamics but its probably the opposite of what you may be thinking in that generally speaking higher instability is present during severe events than what it might take in many areas. CAPE of 4000 to 5000 is pretty common during the wet season months when we experience more tropical weather, although in this case with a frontal system in the Spring the thermodynamics would be pretty close to that of the plains or ohio valley to some degree. Colder air aloft in Florida is relative, what might be called cold air aloft here might seem like relatively warm air aloft for a region Oklahoma or Kansas.


Anyways though, considering what overall models are showing including the GFS I'm very surprised at those low numbers, I would expect them to be much higher than that if the current model trends continue, I think it might be an error in the model honestly. I'm not saying we are gonna have some huge outbreak but levels that low don't seem to support the heavy convection thew model is outputting over Central and North Florida, which is why I believe it may be an error.

CAPE is around 2000 to 3000 J/kg right now over the south and Central gulf, I would expect this to build and spread toward Florida into this weekend.






Quoting washingtonian115:
But the GFS is good with pin pointing cape verde hurricane.I've seen it predict storms two weeks out in advance and nail it.


its not a bad model at all..the Euro just outperforms it is all I am saying
Quoting weatherh98:


Ehh you don't want the humidity we get down here on the gulf coast constantly, y'all get it occasionally but we have to deal with it DAILY.
We can get really bad humidity even into the fall at times.Even this winter at times when it was warm outside usually after a rain storm it was humid.XD.We really couldn't escape it this year.
I watched a real good show last night (On Demand) which was the 2011 Nova Special on Tornadoes which focused on the Joplin disaster and had lots of folks on from SPC and U of Oklahoma. Best "graphic" explanation of why tornado outbreaks are so devastating in the "alley" because of the convergence of the cool air from fronts coming over the Rockies into the plains colliding basically with the warm air flowing in from the Gulf; bad combination when combined with the relative jet stream location like we saw last week with that smaller section of the jet over Texas with the storms. We have had several frontal outbreaks over the years in Florida, and many of the worst ones have occurred in Central Florida, but it is not as bad as those long track monsters in the plains. In fact, some of our most active tornado events are not from winter/spring frontal events but from land falling hurricanes in the NE quadrant. Hurricanes are no fun but I really don't think that I could live in tornado alley.
Quoting caneswatch:


He used slim chance from the beginning. I'm not gonna respond to your last sentence, sounds like a troll.


Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all
I heard that the GFS is predicting an tornado outbreak in about a week....is this true?

Who told you that? Other than a few isolated severe thunderstorms pretty much everyday over the next week, nothing significant lies on the horizon.

291. TampaSpin 12:25 AM GMT on April 17, 2012 +0
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who told you that? Other than a few isolated severe thunderstorms pretty much everyday over the next week, nothing significant lies on the horizon.



NOT TRUE ....

295. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:28 AM GMT on April 17, 2012 +1
Quoting TampaSpin:



NOT TRUE ....

Completely true. I can do a detailed analysis of what the GFS shows if you think I am giving out inaccurate information.



LOL....good nite everyone!
Quoting washingtonian115:
We can get really bad humidity even into the fall at times.Even this winter at times when it was warm outside usually after a rain storm it was humid.XD.We really couldn't escape it this year.


Oh yes Ik, it can get just as bad there as here no doubt
Quoting Xyrus2000:


There are a number of user who won't ignore someone making claims such as these. These members help keep the board from becoming a conspiracy fueled, burn-the-witch, I-see-dead-people, my-toe-is-a-radio-to-aliens nut fest.

If these "correlation grids" make useful scientifically valid and verified claims, then kindly provide the source for this information. Otherwise, it's little more than pseudo-scientific nonsense.


actually....my toe is, in fact, a radio...
Quoting presslord:


actually....my toe is, in fact, a radio...


I ALWAYS see dead people
Quoting TampaSpin:


Quoting nigel20:
Good evening all
I heard that the GFS is predicting an tornado outbreak in about a week....is this true?

Who told you that? Other than a few isolated severe thunderstorms pretty much everyday over the next week, nothing significant lies on the horizon.

291. TampaSpin 12:25 AM GMT on April 17, 2012 +0
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Who told you that? Other than a few isolated severe thunderstorms pretty much everyday over the next week, nothing significant lies on the horizon.



NOT TRUE ....

295. TropicalAnalystwx13 12:28 AM GMT on April 17, 2012 +1
Quoting TampaSpin:



NOT TRUE ....

Completely true. I can do a detailed analysis of what the GFS shows if you think I am giving out inaccurate information.



LOL....good nite everyone!


Noticed he never used tornadoes when he first mentioned it? He stuck to his statement. I used to think you were a good guy to go to when I first joined here, now you've just changed.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Main flaw was the notion that finding a disposal plan for spent rods would be quick and easy. There are plenty of similar sites scattered round the globe.


And unfortunately that's because very few places have the facilities for recycling spent fuel rods or allow the practice to begin with. So instead of being reprocessed into more fuel, they're stored in cooling ponds or waste sites. And since they aren't reprocessed the spent rods remain radioactive for thousands of years as they contain elements with long half-lives (highly radioactive materials have short half-lives so they don't stick around long).
Quoting sunlinepr:
Seems like (hope not too late)Unit 4 works will begin...


General Plan and Start of Main Work of the Cover for Fuel Removal of Unit 4 in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station
Source: TEPCO Press Release
Date: Apr 16, 2012

Based on Mid-to-Long-Term Roadmap towards the Decommissioning of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Unit 1-4 which was announced on Dec. 21, 2011, we started the preparation work for the installation of the cover for fuel removal of Unit 4 on Mar. 23, 2012.

We would like to inform that we will start the main work for the installation of the cover for fuel removal on Apr. 17.

As the first step of the main work, we will conduct the foundation improvement work in order to strengthen the foundation which supports the foundation of the frame for supporting the crane which is a part of the cover for fuel removal.

At the same time, we will conduct the countermeasure to prevent rainwater from penetrating into Unit 4 Reactor Building.

Attachment: General plan of the cover for fuel removal of Unit 4 in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (PDF 121KB)

Image of the cover for fuel removal of Unit 4 in Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (This picture shows only a image of the general plan, therefore it can differ from the actual structure.)


http://enenews.com/tepco-foundation-improvement-w ork-begins-tomorrow-at-reactor-no-4-also-trying-to -prevent-rainwater-penetration-photos-english


This isn't a weather related blog!
Not, Not, Not!
Good night all!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
You'd be surprised on what Florida can pull out of it's metaphorical rear end even if the instability is low with a little day time heating.



Not exactly, intense heating in Florida raises instability significantly. The reason why we get so many powerful thunderstorms during the rain season is that surface based instability can become very high due to lots of sunshine, warm water temps, and very high low level moisture. Its similar to how tropical regions produce powerful tropical cyclones in that the warm oceans during the wet season months allow massive amounts thermal energy and low level moisture to be swept overland along sea breeze fronts and the sea breeze fronts help to act like frontal boundaries, forcing all the moisture and energy upward fueling powerful thunderstorms. Florida's intense sunshine helps to fuel an additional maxima of energy over land during the day and also powers the strength of the sea breezes. You could say that Florida depends on large amounts of sun to get large amounts of thunderstorms, and thus large amounts of instability :)

Quoting Articuno:

It's been so dry, haven't had a decent rainfall for at least 2-3 weeks..


The drought monitor has been expanding quite rapidly in the northeast over the last two weeks. This week should show significant growth as well. Central and southern New York made it up into the lower 90's today.. earliest 90 reading recorded here.

But this is from the Albany, NY forecast discussion:
"SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WET AND UNSETTLED WX WILL
DOMINATE...AS AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SETS UP OVER THE
NORTHEAST WITH MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ROTATING AROUND THE
H500 CUTOFF. THE GFS IS FURTHER INLAND AND WEST WITH THE MAIN SFC
CYCLONE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WHERE THE ECMWF AND HPC
GUIDANCE HAVE A COASTAL WAVE LIFTING N/NE FROM THE CAROLINAS ON
SUNDAY WITH A DEEP TRANSPORT OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF
IT. STRONG THERMAL ADVECTION AND QG LIFT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT AND
THE COASTAL CYCLONE COULD BRING PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL.
WE KEPT HIGH CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO EARLY
MONDAY...UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES FOR THIS WIDESPREAD PCPN
POTENTIAL. THIS COULD BE THE WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAINFALL THE FCST
AREA NEEDS AFTER THE PERSISTENT DRY SPELL OVER THE PAST MONTH OR
SO.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE DAMP AIR MASS."

Went back and checked...
last time we received more than half an inch of rain in a single storm was the February 29/March 1 storm And the last time we received more than an inch of rain in a single storm was on December 7, 2011.
Link
Made a new tropics page
Quoting wxmojo:
Forensic Analysis of the Tornado Outbreak of April 14-15, 2012

Abstract
The weather system producing the tornado outbreak on April 14-15, 2012 is documented using GOES infrared satellite imagery. Sixteen hours of images at half hour intervals are sequentially arranged to show the development and evolution of this system. A forensic analysis is performed using correlation grids, which are highly structured collections of regular geometric shapes spatially correlated to weather features. It is implicitly demonstrated that correlation grids appear to coexist with naturally evolving weather formations. The origin, cause, and actual existence of correlation grids remain unknown.

The report can be found at askwhy333.minus.com


That report is someone posting nonsense on the web. Is there a peer reviewed research paper on the topic? Perhaps in one of the well respected scientific journals like Nature?

Anyone with an internet connection can post up whatever nonsense they want. I can post a picture of Martha Stewart ridding a Chimera and throwing Twinkies at garden gnomes on that site. That doesn't lend it a shred of credibility.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hmm...straight winds at the surface. Very slim chance of a tornado.

If that weren't enough, instability is forecast to be meager. While I understand that low instability can support significant severe weather as long as there is strong wind shear, there isn't. In fact, wind shear is very weak.


Although sometimes events can occur in situations that appear on the surface to have not-so-much directional shear. The speed shear between the surface and 500mb can be high enough with just a small amount of turning that you end up with similar curvature in your hodograph to the "ideal" situation that you mentioned.
Quoting Skyepony:
High winds slowed sown the readying of Discovery for the flight to D.C...but she's prepared to go anyway. Said good-bye today. I should get more pics tomorrow, with a better camera.


She'll be doing a low flyover of NASA Goddard tomorrow. I'll be out in front of Building 8 with just about everyone else there taking pictures and videos as it comes over. If I get any good ones I can post them up.

I'm hoping it will be a little late as I have a telecon just before the flyover is supposed to happen. :P
Quoting Chicklit:

That's a likely scenario, Nigel.
It's been very dry here for quite a long time.

I hope you guys get some well needed rain soon!
I've been late getting my daily tropical update on the Atlantic tropics tonight...busy at work and then power was out briefly at my apartment this afternoon from strong winds here at the Great Lakes.

I'll be posting it in the next hour...can read it in the morning if that's too late....
Quoting washingtonian115:
Wow TCHP has really went through the roof.Any who God has answered my prayers!.And rain is coming for us!.On Wen,Sat,and Sunday!!!.Woot woot!.

happy for you...whats up washingtonian115?
Quoting Xyrus2000:


That report is someone posting nonsense on the web. Is there a peer reviewed research paper on the topic? Perhaps in one of the well respected scientific journals like Nature?

Anyone with an internet connection can post up whatever nonsense they want. I can post a picture of Martha Stewart ridding a Chimera and throwing Twinkies at garden gnomes on that site. That doesn't lend it a shred of credibility.


They are simply observations, my friend. I don't understand all the vitriol and ad hominem attacks for simply presenting some rather curious observations.
Whats with the bad blood...can't we all agree to disagree?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How is that possible when the GFS goes out to 384 hours and the ECMWF goes out to 240 hours? lol.


Because the Euro's 8 day forecast is actually better than the GFS' 7 day forecast.


The way these models work, if you are off by a tiny margin each day that adds up over time. By the time you get to the 7 day range, the Euro is literally 1 full day ahead in skill.

The maximum length you run the model for is not important if it the model is already falling behind in skill after just a day or two.

All of that said, the GFS and other U.S. models, both global and hurricane models, are still far better today than it was even just a few years ago.

If you read the paper put out by NHC on the improvements of hurricane forecast skill, for example, they've improved the skill by about 3 days worth, which is to say the 7th day forecast in 2011 had about as much skill as the 3rd or 4th day had 20 years ago, and the 48 hour forecast has about as much skill as the 24 hour forecast had 20 years ago.
Must be withdrawal pains. Very slow day today, 3,3,3, on SPC.
Hey, Nigel, 115 and NCH---2009.
Quoting presslord:


actually....my toe is, in fact, a radio...


Would you mind turning 3 degrees to the north? I am hearing a little static from you're toe. ... How ya doing, press? Is everything OK, in the Carolinas? ;-)
Here is the 00z Surface Analysis. North Atlantic low is still attached to front.

Arggg, cane season must be getting close as the tempers are flaring. Rather significant storm portrayed in the GFS @ 144hrs.

GMAO GEOS-5 Atlantic SST are forecast to be on the cool side this year.
Quoting PedleyCA:
Must be withdrawal pains. Very slow day today, 3,3,3, on SPC.
Hey, Nigel, 115 and NCH---2009.

whats up Pedley?
.
Not much, just hanging out. Got up to 81.9 here today. Starting to warm up again.
Quoting weatherh98:


Ehh you don't want the humidity we get down here on the gulf coast constantly, y'all get it occasionally but we have to deal with it DAILY.


Trust me, humidity in the NEUS during the warm season is brutal.
Quoting Skyepony:
GMAO GEOS-5 Atlantic SST are forecast to be on the cool side this year.


Wow, it looks like the CV season will be below normal if that forecast pans out.How the NAO will in the next few weeks will be the main factor.
Quoting presslord:


actually....my toe is, in fact, a radio...


What's the frequency Kenneth

img src="">img src="">

A tribute to William Tager and Dan Rather
Quoting wxmojo:


They are simply observations, my friend. I don't understand all the vitriol and ad hominem attacks for simply presenting some rather curious observations.
FWIW, I haven't seen any ad hominem attacks on this issue; just people asking you for clarification on your observations, and maybe some science to back up what it is you think you're observing. Again, you've posted (and linked to) weather satellite images atop which have been superimposed rectangles and circles of various size and dimension. Those geometric shapes are so numerous that a few do manage to align with elements of the underlying satellite photo--but I imagine I could dump a boxful of wooden toothpicks and rubber bands onto a printout of one of those satellite images and achieve much the same result. The point being, I don't see what you and/or the composite's creator are apparently seeing, and I've a feeling not many others here do, either. And rather than simply telling anyone who disagrees with you to put you on ignore, it might be better for the case you're trying to present to provide that clarification and scientific backup. That's all...

good to know Pedley
Quoting Xyrus2000:


That report is someone posting nonsense on the web. Is there a peer reviewed research paper on the topic? Perhaps in one of the well respected scientific journals like Nature?

Anyone with an internet connection can post up whatever nonsense they want. I can post a picture of Martha Stewart ridding a Chimera and throwing Twinkies at garden gnomes on that site. That doesn't lend it a shred of credibility.
What do you have against garden gnomes?
Nino is not wasting any time making it's future presence known. May catch a cut-off low or two in the gulf before the fronts subside. Just my opinion of course.
Quoting nigel20:

happy for you...whats up washingtonian115?
I'm good.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Arggg, cane season must be getting close as the tempers are flaring. Rather significant storm portrayed in the GFS @ 144hrs.

why isn't anyone else discussing this? ? ?
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
why isn't anyone else discussing this? ? ?


Because it's entirely frontal.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
why isn't anyone else discussing this? ? ?


^What KoritheMan said^
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
why isn't anyone else discussing this? ? ?
\

Still a lot of uncertainty and even in the GFS, said system is loosing steam on it's eastward trek. Still rather formidable however, most significant of the season. Which is not hard to top considering what we've seen in the peninsula this winter. You'll hear more chatter once we get into the 3-5 day period.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
What do you have against garden gnomes?



Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Wow, it looks like the CV season will be below normal if that forecast pans out.How the NAO will in the next few weeks will be the main factor.

NAO seems to be going negative soon
whats up Korithe?
K-man is on?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Because it's entirely frontal.


I highly doubt anyone was considering anything but frontal. If they we're, they surely shouldn't be. Frontally speaking, that is a rather significant system for the deep south. Jets involved and such could bring a bad day for many.
Pre-91L(?) still looking frontal:



Notice the large band of precipitation extending downstream (eastward) from the axis of the low. If this is going to develop, it needs to do so quickly. Not impressed so far.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


I highly doubt anyone was considering anything but frontal. If they we're, they surely shouldn't be. Frontally speaking, that is a rather significant system for the deep south. Jets involved and such could bring a bad day for many.


Since you mentioned hurricane season, I assumed you were attempting to point out some sort of tropical significance.
Quoting nigel20:

NAO seems to be going negative soon
whats up Korithe?


Hey bro, just got back from an extremely demanding day at work. Yourself?
Quoting KoritheMan:
Pre-91L(?) still looking frontal:



Notice the large band of precipitation extending downstream (eastward) from the axis of the low. If this is going to develop, it needs to do so quickly. Not impressed so far.


Agree 100%. That is why NHC has not tagged it as invest.
Quoting nigel20:

good to know Pedley


And the humidity is low out West. Don't know how you folks tolerate that swamp air. Guess if you can afford to run an AC unit.
Has anyone ever wondered what Mt. Rushmore looks like from the Canadian side?

Well here you go:





:)
Quoting Jedkins01:
Has anyone ever wondered what Mt. Rushmore looks like from the Canadian side?

Well here you go:





:)


That... was awesome.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Since you mentioned hurricane season, I assumed you were attempting to point out some sort of tropical significance.


I am a rather straight talker for future reference. I would assume that being April 16th, I wouldn't need to be so specific but, I will always include a tropical verbiage to a tropical reference.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Hey bro, just got back from an extremely demanding day at work. Yourself?

I'm good...though i'm busy as well...preparing for finals (exam) next week
Quoting KoritheMan:


That... was awesome.



I actually found this picture off of a local MET's facebook page, I thought it was hilarious so I had to share!
Quoting Jedkins01:
Has anyone ever wondered what Mt. Rushmore looks like from the Canadian side?

Well here you go:





:)

Don't you think you are insulting the Canadians?....lol
Quoting Neapolitan:
FWIW, I haven't seen any ad hominem attacks on this issue; just people asking you for clarification on your observations, and maybe some science to back up what it is you think you're observing. Again, you've posted (and linked to) weather satellite images atop which have been superimposed rectangles and circles of various size and dimension. Those geometric shapes are so numerous that a few do manage to align with elements of the underlying satellite photo--but I imagine I could dump a boxful of wooden toothpicks and rubber bands onto a printout of one of those satellite images and achieve much the same result. The point being, I don't see what you and/or the composite's creator are apparently seeing, and I've a feeling not many others here do, either. And rather than simply telling anyone who disagrees with you to put you on ignore, it might be better for the case you're trying to present to provide that clarification and scientific backup. That's all...


"a monkey with an etch-a-sketch" is not an ad hominem attack? You and I must have different levels of self image (joke). The people I suggested to ignore me were the ones firing the ad hominem attacks.

I haven't claimed any science, only observations. I came for help in obtaining an explanation. If that wasn't clear, then here it is: All, what do you make of these observations?

For those for may be interested, the latest forensic OBSERVATIONS of the CAtl storm have been posted at askwhy333.minus.com.
Quoting nigel20:

Don't you think you are insultingg the Canadians?....lol


No, but this guy is.
Quoting nigel20:

Don't you think you are insultingg the Canadians?....lol



Actually I'm not, I have nothing against Canadians, its just a funny picture :)

Quoting wxmojo:

I came for help in obtaining an explanation. If that wasn't clear, then here it is: All, what do you make of these observations?
And we've told you. Millions upon millions of times. It's not our fault you're so dense.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No, but this guy is.

Yeah, definitely
Quoting Jedkins01:



Actually I'm not, I have nothing against Canadians, its just a funny picture :)


I know...just joking around
Time to get off here. Stay Safe all. Have a good night. Catch ya all tomorrow.
Quoting KoritheMan:


No, but this guy is.



lol I remember that show, I grew up watching that show haha
Quoting Jedkins01:



lol I remember that show, I grew up watching that show haha


I still watch it. :D
Quoting KoritheMan:


I still watch it. :D



Is it even on anymore? I thought they stopped airing it a while ago? It was among my favorites haha
Good night all
More in the next couple days but, MIA NWS is interested.

000
FXUS62 KMFL 161737
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

ISSUED 358 AM EDT MON APR 16 2012/


EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA MOVING SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW TO
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES NEXT WEEKEND
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA NEXT SUNDAY MORNING.
AT THE SAME TIME...THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME MID
TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEXT
WEEKEND. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SCATTERED POPS ALONG WITH THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF STORMS FOR SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BEFORE
GOING DRY FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING THAT A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD EVEN BE STRONG SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING OVER THE
CWA...DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. SO SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE MIAMI
NATIONAL WEATHER OFFICE THROUGH THE WEEK ON THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG
STORMS FOR THIS WEEKEND.
430. wxmod
Modifying the weather Pacific off Oregon today. MODIS satellite photo



Quoting Jedkins01:



Is it even on anymore? I thought they stopped airing it a while ago? It was among my favorites haha


I think it still airs on Boomerang now and then, but I'm not a subscriber there, so I could be wrong.

Actually, I have it on DVD.
ASCAT
Niño 4


-
0.2
ºC

Niño 3.4

-
0.3
ºC

Ni
ño 3


0.5
ºC

N
iño

1+2


1.9ºC




Nino 1+2 shows strong El nino LOL
Quoting Tazmanian:
Niño 4


-
0.2
ºC

Niño 3.4

-
0.3
ºC

Ni
ño 3


0.5
ºC

N
iño

1+2


1.9ºC




Nino 1+2 shows strong El nino LOL


This probably has something to do with it...

Fresh OSCAT
Two swirly things.
Heres something to wake up too:-

MAP 6.7 2012/04/17 03:50:17 -32.701 -71.484 37.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

Another well over 6.5
You know it's that time of year when this stuff starts showing up on the long-range GFS. This model has been hinting at the central-eastern Caribbean being the most favorable spot for any possible May mischief. Right now it is probably just getting early quirks out of its system.

Quoting Jedkins01:
Has anyone ever wondered what Mt. Rushmore looks like from the Canadian side?

Well here you go:





:)



Where'd you get that? I'd like to send it along.

Might as well make someone else clean up their monitor, too.
It looks like the earth has a bad belly ache.

I wonder how long before she vomits ...



HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
427 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054 -058-059-064-141-
144-147-172030-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
INLET OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO
60 NM OFFSHORE-
WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
OSCEOLA-INDIAN RIVER-OKEECHOBEE-ST. LUCIE-MARTIN-COASTAL VOLUSIA-
SOUTHERN LAKE-NORTHERN BREVARD-
427 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.RIP CURRENT IMPACT...
A 1 TO 2 FOOT LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL COMBINE WITH A 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTHEAST
WIND TO GENERATE AN ELEVATED RIP CURRENT RISK AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
THE GREATEST RIP CURRENT RISK WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO TIDAL EFFECTS.
BEACH VISITORS ARE URGED TO CHECK WITH BEACH PATROL FOR LOCAL CONDITIONS
BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER. NEVER SWIM ALONE... ESPECIALLY AT UNGUARDED
BEACHES.

.FIRE WEATHER IMPACT...
ONGOING DRY CONDITIONS COUPLED WITH LOWER AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
CREATE A HIGH TO VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. ANY NEW FIRES WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING
QUICKLY MAKING CONTAINMENT DIFFICULT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS EACH DAY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.

$$

WIMMER
snipped this from YoloHub site............Does it seem to you like there has been an unusual amount of seismic activity around the world lately? Well, it isn’t just your imagination. The Ring of Fire is roaring to life and that is really bad news for the west coast of the United States. Approximately 90 percent of all earthquakes and approximately 75 percent of all volcanic eruptions occur along the Ring of Fire. Considering the fact that the entire west coast of the United States lies along the Ring of Fire, we should be very concerned that the Ring of Fire is becoming more active. On Wednesday, the most powerful strike-slip earthquake ever recorded happened along the Ring of Fire. If that earthquake had happened in a major U.S. city along the west coast, the city would have been entirely destroyed. Scientists tell us that there is nearly a 100% certainty that the “Big One” will hit California at some point. In recent years we have seen Japan, Chile, Indonesia and New Zealand all get hit by historic earthquakes. It is inevitable that there will be earthquakes of historic importance on the west coast of the United States as well. So far we have been very fortunate, but that good fortune will not last indefinitely.
Quoting geepy86:
Two swirly things.


It was the solution the gfs had stuck too. It calls for the swirly thing on the right to absorb the one on the left. Judging structure & all, seems the right bet.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
445 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

GMZ430-432-435-450-452-455-470-472-475-180945-
SABINE LAKE-CALCASIEU LAKE-VERMILION BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
445 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION OVER THE OUTER WATERS TODAY.
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE LATE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A VIGOROUS LOW DEVELOPS
OFF THE LOUISIANA COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AS THE LOW MOVES QUICKLY OUT OF THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
WE MAY BE CALLING UPON RIGS TO REPORT SEVERE CONDITIONS LATE THIS
WEEK.

$$

SWEENEY
Being April & how MJO should be nearing & passing through null the next 2 weeks or so, climo would suggest the best chance for invest being the area of 99S to the other side of the Hemisphere in that region. There is that 1 in 27 shot something off the east coast.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Heres something to wake up too:-

MAP 6.7 2012/04/17 03:50:17 -32.701 -71.484 37.0 OFFSHORE VALPARAISO, CHILE

Another well over 6.5

We also had a 7.0 in Papua New Guinea... Thankfully it was deep though

Morning everyone.
Have your NOAA Radios ready this weekend in FL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
00Z MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAVE CHANGED SOME IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPENING TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE
NOW SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN OPENING UP AND LIFTING
OUT ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD ON FRIDAY THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST SATURDAY AND TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEA BREEZES AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGING
A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST POPS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND
AREAS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DECENT
SHEAR ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS
.
GFS precip outlook!

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Have your NOAA Radios ready this weekend in FL.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
356 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012


.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
00Z MODELS ARE PRETTY SIMILAR ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...BUT HAVE CHANGED SOME IN THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND. THE DEEPENING TROUGH IS STILL FORECAST TO
MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE PERIOD...BUT MODELS ARE
NOW SHOWING A CUTOFF LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN OPENING UP AND LIFTING
OUT ON MONDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD ON FRIDAY THEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST SATURDAY AND TRACK EAST
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH DURING SUNDAY AND OUT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY.

ON FRIDAY IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE SEA BREEZES AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO CAUSE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OVER THE WEEKEND A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BRINGING
A DECENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA. HIGHEST POPS HAVE NOW SHIFTED TO SUNDAY AS THE
SYSTEM IS A LITTLE SLOWER...BUT STILL EXPECTING TO SEE SOME
SCATTERED CONVECTION DURING SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND
AREAS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS WILL
EXIST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DECENT
SHEAR ALONG WITH STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS
.
yESSSSSSSSSS
Space Shuttle Discovery to take off one last time enroute to the Washington Smithsonian. Takeoff set for 7:06 am.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/new s/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2012/4/17 /discovery_departs

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Space Shuttle Discovery to take off one last time enroute to the Washington Smithsonian. Takeoff set for 7:06 am.

http://www.baynews9.com/content/news/baynews9/new s/article.html/content/news/articles/cfn/2012/4/17 /discovery_departs

It just took off as per the video clip on TWC.
Wishing everyone a wonderful Tuesday!
Good morning to all.

nrtiwlnvragn,do you have the link to the GFS Parallel site? Thanks in advance.
Could be a severe wx outbreak in the cards this weekend and people from TX to FL really need to watch this. You can definitely tell El-nino is building as this is very uncommon for April. Infact the GFS wants to set up the rainy season across FL starting tomorrow. The models literally shows a chance of rain from tomorrow thru day 16 on the 06Z run.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS SOUTH INTO TX
DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX WITHIN GREATEST ZONE OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TX FRIDAY WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGER
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION THAT COULD DRIVE INTO THE NWRN GULF BASIN OVER
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE YET TO SETTLE ON A
CONSISTENT SOLUTION WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD
Happy Tuesday! Good morning
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
342 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES FASTER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED. AS DEEP AS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BE...WILL TREND TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF BUT KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TO PRODUCE SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
. MOS GUIDANCE IS
CONSIDERABLY WARMER SUNDAY/MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY. WILL BUMP TEMPS
UP A BIT BUT CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN LATEST GUIDANCE SINCE
EXPECTING FRONT TO MOVE FASTER THAN GFS. AFTER THE REGION DRIES
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
Farewell Space Shuttle Discovery!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Could be a severe wx outbreak in the cards this weekend and people from TX to FL really need to watch this. You can definitely tell El-nino is building as this is very uncommon for April. Infact the GFS wants to set up the rainy season across FL starting tomorrow. The models literally shows a chance of rain from tomorrow thru day 16 on the 06Z run.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS SOUTH INTO TX
DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX WITHIN GREATEST ZONE OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TX FRIDAY WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGER
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION THAT COULD DRIVE INTO THE NWRN GULF BASIN OVER
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE YET TO SETTLE ON A
CONSISTENT SOLUTION WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD
we will have to watch this develop carefully, but we need all the rain we can get
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Could be a severe wx outbreak in the cards this weekend and people from TX to FL really need to watch this. You can definitely tell El-nino is building as this is very uncommon for April. Infact the GFS wants to set up the rainy season across FL starting tomorrow. The models literally shows a chance of rain from tomorrow thru day 16 on the 06Z run.

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 AM CDT TUE APR 17 2012

VALID 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN SLOWER AND A BIT FARTHER WEST
AND SOUTH WITH ITS EVOLUTION OF AN UPPER LOW THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE
GULF COAST. AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND DIGS SOUTH INTO TX
DURING THE DAY4 PERIOD IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL/ERN TX WITHIN GREATEST ZONE OF WARM
SECTOR INSTABILITY. IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR/INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS TX FRIDAY WHICH COULD EVOLVE INTO A LARGER
COMPLEX OF CONVECTION THAT COULD DRIVE INTO THE NWRN GULF BASIN OVER
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN THAT THE MODELS HAVE YET TO SETTLE ON A
CONSISTENT SOLUTION WILL NOT INTRODUCE AN ORGANIZED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS PERIOD


Bring.. it.. ON!
I have my doubts about this system...it's still highly frontal in nature and running out of time to develop before it's swept up by another front.

Quoting wxmojo:


They are simply observations, my friend. I don't understand all the vitriol and ad hominem attacks for simply presenting some rather curious observations.


Who's attacking you personally? I'm talking about your observation with sample size one with one link to file hosting site.

Given the chaotic nature of weather, you can come up with just about any kind of random "pattern" you want and still get something that looks like it lines up every once in a while. This holds true for any chaotic data, including stock "prediction" algorithms. Hind-casting is easy, prediction is the difficult part.

The point is, it takes a lot more research (including reviews for other experts in the field) and definitely a lot more observations to back up any scientific claims. These correlation grids based on geometry are a far cry from that.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
342 AM EDT TUE APR 17 2012

WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY. ECMWF CONTINUES FASTER WITH THE
SYSTEM WHILE THE GFS HAS SLOWED. AS DEEP AS THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO BE...WILL TREND TOWARD THE FASTER ECMWF BUT KEEP LOW CHANCE
POPS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL TAP INTO SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT TO PRODUCE SCTD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS
. MOS GUIDANCE IS
CONSIDERABLY WARMER SUNDAY/MONDAY THAN PREVIOUSLY. WILL BUMP TEMPS
UP A BIT BUT CONTINUE TO BE COOLER THAN LATEST GUIDANCE SINCE
EXPECTING FRONT TO MOVE FASTER THAN GFS. AFTER THE REGION DRIES
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LOWS DOWN
INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT.
You're doing a good job, keep tabs on it for us.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
You're doing a good job, keep tabs on it for us.


Thank you! I think this is going to pan out and if it does many in FL will be thankfull as this could be a significant rain maker.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have my doubts about this system...it's still highly frontal in nature and running out of time to develop before it's swept up by another front.


I would say it is out of time if it ever had a chance at all... It looks exactly the same as yesterday... SST's are way to cool and it just can't get itself off that front.
Yes, after today the forecast says RAIN RAIN RAIN, like summer is finally here with a frontal bonus on saturday. But New Orleans keeps getting the rain and the front keeps switching from east progression to north.
Somebody in Texas, please kick it over to Florida. I'm tired of mowing weeds in the dry lake bottom and hearing the raspy crunch of the crispy grass on my lawn.
Quoting Levi32:
You know it's that time of year when this stuff starts showing up on the long-range GFS. This model has been hinting at the central-eastern Caribbean being the most favorable spot for any possible May mischief. Right now it is probably just getting early quirks out of its system.



Hi Levi.You think something may form in the area by early May?
Quoting biff4ugo:
Yes, after today the forecast says RAIN RAIN RAIN, like summer is finally here with a frontal bonus on saturday. But New Orleans keeps getting the rain and the front keeps switching from east progression to north.
Somebody in Texas, please kick it over to Florida. I'm tired of mowing weeds in the dry lake bottom and hearing the raspy crunch of the crispy grass on my lawn.


Rain's a coming but so is also the severe wx potential. Lots of shear across FL on Sunday.

to 418
"a monkey with an etch-a-sketch" is not an ad hominem attack?
No, it is a Hominidae attack. Easy mistake.
It seems as if a couple of factors are coming together to jump start more regular rains across FL and here they are below.



Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Good morning to all.

nrtiwlnvragn,do you have the link to the GFS Parallel site? Thanks in advance.


Sorry, don't have any good ones. Since they decomissioned the old NCEP Analysis Page I have not seen a page where they replacate the standard GFS graphics with the parallel run. The data in grib format is available at:
www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/para
One would need to create their own forecast graphics from that data, way above my paygrade.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

We also had a 7.0 in Papua New Guinea... Thankfully it was deep though

Morning everyone.

After my time by the hands of your clocks, I was on a roof, fixing it when that happened but this outbreak of "quakeisums" is a bit unusual, they are scattered all over the pacific ring and we have had a few in the Med. area as well, thought less intense.
The "quarter," from Mexico to the Aleutians is sort of left out of this at the moment, I hope it stays that way for you's.
Sun streaming down here in Southern Europe and we also had tornado's in Jaen north of Granada and Tarragona south of Barcelona on Saturday, not to be left out of the action. Nothing remotely like what the central states had though.
Oh! Happy Tuesday for some reason!
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Sorry, don't have any good ones. Since they decomissioned the old NCEP Analysis Page I have not seen a page where they replacate the standard GFS graphics with the parallel run. The data in grib format is available at:
www.ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nccf/com/gfs/para
One would need to create their own forecast graphics from that data, way above my paygrade.


Ok,thanks again.
Quoting Jedkins01:
What I would like to see is a thunderstorm that would look like this:

and would bring 5 to 6 inches of rain in a couple hours turning my yard into this:



Yes that thunderstorm happened last year and caused that flooding, it dumped roughly 5 to 6 inches within 2 hours, it also was tornado warned and produced 60 mph winds here and incredible lightning that caused a fire about a mile away, and that's me standing in the flood waters afterward.


I would really like to see some of this above return instead of all this drought :)

I saw a thunderstorm like that once and I don't want to see another!Black, almost like night, lightning every few seconds, incredible noise and worst of all the roar of the rivers with boulders in them.
14 inches of rain in 5 hours, everything except big rocks washed away, devastation that can't be imagined unless you lived through it! 1999 I think.
I wish I could have stood in the floodwater's but they were 14 feet deep and moving at about 40 miles an hour.
FWIW, 2009 v. 2012.

April 16th, 2012. (SST)


April 17th, 2012. (SST)


April 16th, 2012 (TCHP)


April 17th, 2012 (TCHP)



MUCH warmer than in 2009 and for that matter, 2006. GOMEX is warmer than any year too, which leads me to believe that we're going to see a few more named storms than what we saw in 2009. Don't be surprised though if most of the 10 or 11 named this year happens before the peak of hurricane season.
Plaza Red - 475

The "quarter," from Mexico to the Aleutians is sort of left out of this at the moment, I hope it stays that way for you's.

I am about 20-25 miles from the San Andreas fault. The San Bernardino part of it. (Southern Calif) I always cringe when people mention that we haven't had one lately. Thank you for saying the opposite (wishing nothing). So ya doing well there? Have you got your web pages behaving?
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Who's attacking you personally? I'm talking about your observation with sample size one with one link to file hosting site.

Given the chaotic nature of weather, you can come up with just about any kind of random "pattern" you want and still get something that looks like it lines up every once in a while. This holds true for any chaotic data, including stock "prediction" algorithms. Hind-casting is easy, prediction is the difficult part.

The point is, it takes a lot more research (including reviews for other experts in the field) and definitely a lot more observations to back up any scientific claims. These correlation grids based on geometry are a far cry from that.


I think this has been a good start. We've watched him come up with other shapes on maps, for other events. I've watched this evolve, it's getting more detailed. The way that was done with the tornado out break was interesting cause I could scroll through & see it move & plumes explode within boundaries already outlined by rectangles. It's natural math & physics in shapes. It's partly what I've always imagined when forecasting...things tend toward patterns, like three cyclones in a row. Some people can see & do math on a way higher level with shapes & colors. I glimpse it, but far from fully grasp it. But what if one of these geniuses that fully gets it taught it to computers to use the big picture shapes & colors to simplify the runs so they could run that much more info for each model run? Even the text of the tutorial ends with questions. This is in no way trying to even sound like a peer reviewed idea. In the past here we've come up with ideas that have gone on to be others thesis or peer reviewed papers. It could be the next great thing in models or not.. I'd like to see it run it's course, he's not making any claims, not really trolling, they have all been done on maps where the lat/log are curved & I'm partial to the rainbow maps. There's getting to be a trend toward bashing people seeing things in clouds..shapes, demons, numbers..some of us will never be convinced that just because you don't see them that Sky ponies don't exist:)