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Weather Whiplash: Floods Hit Buffalo as 62°F Temperatures Melt Huge Snowpack

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:54 PM GMT on November 24, 2014

It's weather whiplash in Buffalo, New York, where the temperature surged to 62°F at 11 am EST Monday, following a week of near-record cold and heavy snow. The exceptional warmth would be welcome if not for the massive snowpack on the ground along a swath across the southern and eastern suburbs of Buffalo, where last week's extreme lake effect snow storm dumped up to 88" (7 feet, four inches) of snow at Cowlesville. The water content of the snow, if it all melted at once, is huge--equivalent to up to 6.3" of rain at Orchard Park, NY, as measured last Friday. Fortunately, today's warmth has been accompanied by rainfall amounts less than .10" so far, and only one area river is at moderate flood stage--Cayuga Creek at Lancaster, where over six feet of snow fell last week. With freezing temperatures expected to return on Tuesday night and continue for most of the remainder of the week, widespread damaging flooding is not expected, and the forecast is for mostly minor flooding in the Buffalo area on Monday and Tuesday. The large and powerful November storm responsible for Buffalo's remarkable warmth is bringing high winds to an exceptionally large area of the U.S. and Canada this Monday morning, with High Wind Watches and Warnings posted for a 17-state area 1,000 miles across, from North Dakota to New York and southwards to Arkansas.


Figure 1. Dump trucks pile snow at Buffalo's Central Terminal on Sunday, November 23, 2014 after a lake effect snow storm brought over seven feet of snow to nearby regions. (AP Photo/Mike Groll) 


Figure 2. Strong winds blowing over Lake Erie on Monday are predicted to bring waves up to 18 feet high to the north shore of the lake at 10 pm EST Monday night, November 24, 2014. A Lakeshore Flood Warning is posted for Buffalo, New York at the east end of Lake Erie, where waters levels are expected to rise to flood stage--eight feet above the low water datum--on Monday night into Tuesday. Image credit: NOAA/GLERL.


Figure 3. Severe weather map for the U.S. at 10:30 am EST Monday November 24, 2014. High Wind advisories (blue colors) extended in a 1000-mile swath from North Dakota to New York, and southwards to Arkansas. Winter weather advisories (white colors) were in effect over portions of the Northeast for a new storm system expected to bring 6+" inches of snow to the region on Wednesday.

Thanksgiving travel trouble ahead for the Eastern U.S.
A significant Nor'easter will form off the coast of South Carolina on Tuesday night and track north-northeastward, parallel to the coast, on Wednesday. Snow will begin in the Southern Appalachians late Tuesday night and spread northeastwards on Wednesday. Areas to the east of the I-95 corridor should be all rain, with Washington D.C., Philadelphia, and New York City seeing a wintry mix of rain and snow with snow accumulations of an inch or less. Farther inland, snow amounts of 6+ inches are likely along a swath from Northeast Pennsylvania and Northwest New Jersey into Maine, including Hartford, Connecticut and central Massachusetts cities like Worcester. Small changes in the forecast track of the system will likely occur over the next day, so stay tuned to the latest forecasts.

Moroccan floods kill at least 31
Torrential rains in Morocco on Monday have triggered extreme flooding responsible for at least 31 deaths, reported Al Jazzeera on Monday morning. Dozens remain missing after storms dumped more than 4" of rain (101.6 mm) on the southern part of the north African country. Thanks go to wunderground member barbamz for posting this info in my blog comments.



Jeff Masters
Lancaster, NY
Lancaster, NY
Lake-Effect Snow: Buffalo, New York
Lake-Effect Snow: Buffalo, New York
Lake-Effect Snow: Buffalo, New York on november 18 2014
Lake-Effect Snow: Buffalo, New York
Lake-Effect Snow: Buffalo, New York
Lake-Effect Snow: Buffalo, New York 4 feet of snow

Winter Weather Flood

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

thanx doc......and what is left will be solid ice......rough start to the winter season for them
Serious flooding coming


thx, Doc. Crazy weather continuing...
Thanks doc (and welcome). I'm sure our blog will be busy this week with this looming Thanksgiving event ...
Quoting 3. luvtogolf:

thx, Doc. Crazy weather continuing...


Reeeeeaaaally hoping that the Wed-Thurs storm here in the Northeast stays as rain.. a wintry mix would louse up the travel plans of millions of people - just in my metropolitan area, much less up and down the Atlantic seaboard - including myself.
Driving from DC to Boston early on Wednesday. It's going to be a long day.
Thanks Doc !
Quoting 4. barbamz:

Thanks doc. I'm sure our blog will be busy this week with this looming Thanksgiving event ...


You got honorable mention, Barb. Terrible disaster though.

Thanksgiving is historically one of the heaviest travel week on the country. All six major airports on the east coast might be affected.







The NAM and GFS 12z are slowly correcting themselves for a more western track of the system that will develop over the Gulf of Mexico. I still think they are too far east once the system gets past the NC OBX. The models are underestimating the strength of the North Atlantic ridge and the position of the ridge over California is farther west which would allow the shortwave trough in the east to come closer to if not on the coast as it rides up the eastern seaboard. Additionally, the GFS is weakening the 500mb vorticity as the trough is tllting negative and the surface cyclone is strengthening which does not make any sense. The track will likely follow more closely with the ECMWF/ECMWF EPS and the UKMET 00z runs. I think the I-81 corridor from eastern TN up into the Northeast is a good prog for the snow axis.
cpc has issed their weekly enso update........the 3.4 region had a weekly temp anomaly of 0.9.....so we are left with he question.....will the experts decide that this event will meet the five three month requirements...if so....we'll see it called in their december update
Jury duty wednesday in PG CO. Hopefully snow won't interfere.. looks like it will be possible to get through it. At least teens have school off so I won't have to worry about them driving to/from schools

Unprotected broccoli in the garden was moderately damaged by sub 20F temps. Spinach and brussels sprouts had zero damage. Peas were utterly destroyed. Protected (with a blanket) broccoli showed no damage. In cold weather coverings can block light.. plants don't need it when their respiration is really slow. Majority of my garden is still fine and the dominant color remains green rather than brown/gray/yellow.

Nothing frost tender is left but that's expected by this time of year in DC metro.

I expect decent brussels sprouts at Christmas. I need warmth to size the carrots but I doubt I'll get it this late and they'll stay pencil to finger size.
Quoting 2. Grothar:

Serious flooding coming





Flooding is not a lock with this pattern. Depends on how warm it gets and how much warm rain we get after laying down that snowpack. But it's fairly far down the list of mid atlantic wx concerns for me right now.
Quoting 9. Drakoen:

The NAM and GFS 12z are slowly correcting themselves for a more western track of the system that will develop over the Gulf of Mexico.


Would a more western track for a nor'easter generally result in less snow/more rain along the coast?
Doesn't look like there will be much snow out of the mountains here in North Carolina. The fact that we even have this setup in late November is impressive enough though. Hopefully we see similar setups throughout the winter when colder temperatures are present.
Quoting 13. LongIslandBeaches:



Would a more western track for a nor'easter generally result in less snow/more rain along the coast?


Correct.

Quoting 14. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Doesn't look like there will be much snow out of the mountains here in North Carolina. The fact that we even have this setup in late November is impressive enough though. Hopefully we see similar setups throughout the winter when colder temperatures are present.


Where is your location?
Would a more western track for a nor'easter generally result in less snow/more rain along the coast?

the more west the more land impact of both snow and rain would be the results...the further east the more over water.....
Quoting 15. Drakoen:



Correct.



Where is your location?


I live in Wilmington but I'm up in Charlotte this week.
US National Weather Service Eastern Region HQ
2 hours ago
Confidence is increasing for a significant early season snow storm for parts of the Eastern US Wednesday into Thursday. Here are the latest snowfall accumulation probabilities. If you are planning to travel for the Thanksgiving holiday please continue to follow this developing situation. Additional details on the timing and expected snowfall amounts are available from your local NWS forecast office via facebook, twitter, and the web at http://www.weather.gov/

Quoting 17. TropicalAnalystwx13:


I live in Wilmington but I'm up in Charlotte this week.


Probably just a cold rain there. Towards Asheville things look much better.
Off topic but I'm not happy right now. Pulled by gas pressure washer into the pool this morning.

On the bright side - I fertilized my lawn and it is going to rain tomorrow.
Boone,N.C. forecast


The low will pass mainly off the coast...radiating Atlantic
moisture westward over the appalachian chain Tuesday night. As the
low deepens...it will cause winds to shift more
northerly...drawing colder air into our area from the Great Lakes.
As such...will be looking at the potential for accumulating snows
across portions of the mountains beginning early Wednesday morning
and lasting through the evening.

The snowfall accumulation forecast has proven to be a challenge
for this system for several reasons. First...although 850mb
temperatures fall below freezing...they do not get much colder
than -2c/-3c... while surface temperatures hold at or above
freezing many locations through sunrise. Temperatures will then
warm into the upper 30s in the mountains during the afternoon. The
lack of truly colder air will keep the snow to liquid ratio on the
low side. The second issue will be the warm temperatures expected
for Monday and Tuesday that will help warm the ground. This will
help snowfall melt on contact initially...before it begins to
stick...mainly on grassy surfaces. Third will be how much moisture
radiates into the mountains as at least one model calls for the
axis of heaviest precipitation to set up across the
Piedmont...where temperatures will remain warm enough to support
mainly rain.

As of this forecast...snowfall accumulations are looking very
much elevation based...with the Mountain Valley bottoms picking up
very little snowfall through Wednesday evening...while a few of
the ridgetops above 3000 feet may receive 3 to 5 inches. As
such... snowfall amounts may vary significantly over short
distances. East of the Blue Ridge is expected to remain warm
enough to maintain the precipitation as rain until the low
pressure passes north Wednesday afternoon. Even then...little to
no snowfall is expected east of the Blue Ridge. There is still a
significant amount of uncertainty in the forecast for Tuesday
night and Wednesday...as any shift in the track or timing of the
low may result in changes in precipitation type and/or amounts.
I know its the GFS with its "performance" issues but the 12z run is showing an eastern component in snow accumulation versus the 06z run

06z


12z
12Z GFS has the Low tracking up the coast in just about the perfect position to drop some snow along the Eastcoast Wednesday/Wednesday night/Thursday.

The track of the low is the most important factor as to whether the large cities will see a lot of snow, a little bit of snow, or no snow.

If the low made a noticeable change in track to the west, it would be a mainly rain event for the big cities.

But the way it's looking, there should be some accumulating wet snow for the big cities going into Thursday.

Off topic but I'm not happy right now. Pulled by gas pressure washer into the pool this morning.

On the bright side - I fertilized my lawn and it is going to rain tomorrow.



nice....i would suggest you taking it to the shop so they can dry everything out before any rust and oxidation sets in
The UKMET 12z has made a healthy shift to the west and now hugs the coast. UKMET is coming inline with the ECMWF EPS with the baroclinic boundary setting up farther west as a result of a strong North Altantic ridge.
Quoting 8. Grothar:



You got honorable mention, Barb. Terrible disaster though.

Thanksgiving is historically one of the heaviest travel week on the country. All six major airports on the east coast might be affected.










AccuWeather's graphic has Boston misplaced :o

Which 6 are the busiest? I figure Logan, the three NYC airports, Philly...and 1 in the DC area maybe?
dry....dry...and still dry this week for el paso ...
\

Quoting 24. ricderr:

Off topic but I'm not happy right now. Pulled by gas pressure washer into the pool this morning.

On the bright side - I fertilized my lawn and it is going to rain tomorrow.



nice....i would suggest you taking it to the shop so they can dry everything out before any rust and oxidation sets in


Yep. I'm really pissed at myself. Just careless.
Quoting 6. 1Zach1:

Driving from DC to Boston early on Wednesday. It's going to be a long day.


I do not envy you. That's got to be an 8-hour drive on a good day, never mind the busiest day of the year (with possibly inclement weather as well). Sure you wouldn't rather take a flight or the train?
Quoting 12. georgevandenberghe:



Flooding is not a lock with this pattern. Depends on how warm it gets and how much warm rain we get after laying down that snowpack. But it's fairly far down the list of mid atlantic wx concerns for me right now.



I didn't intend to show this as flooding. That first line was in response to the Doc's discussion of the situation in Buffalo. The snow map was an afterthought and a catchup from the previous blog which I reposted. Having been born in NY and we still have a home in NE Pennsylvania I am familiar with the set up. But thanks for pointing it out, especially for someone who could possibly have misinterpreted that entry. Although I have been posting for the past few days the possible flooding potential in the Buffalo area, including local bulletins from there.
Quoting Drakoen:
The UKMET 12z has made a healthy shift to the west and now hugs the coast. UKMET is coming inline with the ECMWF EPS with the baroclinic boundary setting up farther west as a result of a strong North Altantic ridge.


Say it isn't so.
I grew up in Washington D.C. and still have a lot of friends and family that live in the area. I would really like to see it snow there for Thanksgiving.

With so many systems like this, DC seems to end up right on the rain/snow line.

We used to drive just NW of town to see the snow. Then we'd drive home to the south side of town and it would be all rain.
Quoting 26. LAbonbon:



AccuWeather's graphic has Boston misplaced :o

Which 6 are the busiest? I figure Logan, the three NYC airports, Philly...and 1 in the DC area maybe?


I wouldn't assume a map like this would be that accurate, but to show the general areas. If one looks at these maps, they rarely if ever pinpoint exact locations. As in New York, I am sure they have 3 airports in which to chose so they placed it in the middle of where the 3 are.

There are actually 3 large airports around the DC area, as well as La Guardia, JFK, and Newark in NY, Philadelphia and Boston. So you could actually say 8, not including very active local airports such as Islip on Long Island, and many more.

Cape Verde volcano eruption: Residents evacuated
BBC with Video, 24 November 2014 Last updated at 12:09 GMT

BBC update with photo gallery of the flash floods in Morocco: Flooding in southern Morocco has killed 32 people and six others are missing after the heavy rains, officials say.
Looks pretty close to the DC area for the rain/snow line.

Quoting 32. Sfloridacat5:



Say it isn't so.
I grew up in Washington D.C. and still have a lot of friends and family that live in the area. I would really like to see it snow there for Thanksgiving.

With so many systems like this, DC seems to end up right on the rain/snow line.

We used to drive just NW of town to see the snow. Then we'd drive home to the south side of town and it would be all rain.

You guys are on the line but I think a cold rain possibly ending as snow would be a good forecast for you guys.
i think my pink ladies (amaryllis) think they are in southern africa cause they are leafing out for the second time this year. they have never done that before.
Getting everyone on the same page......


TO: ALL EASTERN REGION WFOS AND RFCS

FROM: ERH

WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH IMPACT STORM SYSTEM IN THE MID ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST THIS WEEK... WE ARE SCHEDULING A COLLABORATION CALL
TODAY WITH WPC AND OUR OFFICES TO ENSURE CONSISTENCY IN OUR
FORECASTS. THE CALL WILL BE AT NOON EASTERN. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW VIA
NIMNAT MESSAGE LATER THIS MORNING.


Link
Quoting 37. WaterWitch11:

i think my pink ladies (amaryllis) think they are in southern africa cause they are leafing out for the second time this year. they have never done that before.

60 degrees here feels like early spring instead of early winter
Quoting 20. luvtogolf:

Off topic but I'm not happy right now. Pulled by gas pressure washer into the pool this morning.

On the bright side - I fertilized my lawn and it is going to rain tomorrow.


since ur not happy i will pretend i didn't laugh
Quoting 3. luvtogolf:

thx, Doc. Crazy weather continuing...
Indeed. But if you think it's crazy now, just wait another decade or so...
Quoting Drakoen:


You guys are on the line but I think a cold rain possibly ending as snow would be a good forecast for you guys.


I think the same.
I've been calling for rain changing over to snow Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday morning.
Last I checked the high was still supposed to be in the mid 40s on Thanksgiving. That would do a pretty quick melt of the snow if that were to happen.

It wouldn't be the first time. I've seen it snow like crazy in the morning (thinking its going to be a fun snow day) and then by mid day the snow has 100% melted away. A little disappointing as a kid wanting to break out the sled.
Quoting 41. Neapolitan:

Indeed. But if you think it's crazy now, just wait another decade or so...
don't tell em I want it to be a surprize
Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport
Date: 12:00 PM EST Monday 24 November 2014




Condition:Mostly Cloudy
Pressure:29.1 inches
Tendency:rising
Visibility:15 miles
Temperature:63.5°F
Dewpoint:52.9°F
Humidity:68%
Wind:SSW 19 gust 33 mph

Quoting 42. Sfloridacat5:



I think the same.
I've been calling for rain changing over to snow Wednesday night and continuing into Thursday morning.
Last I checked the high was still supposed to be in the mid 40s on Thanksgiving. That would do a pretty quick melt of the snow if that were to happen.

It wouldn't be the first time. I've seen it snow like crazy in the morning (thinking its going to be a fun snow day) and then by mid day the snow has 100% melted away. A little disappointing as a kid wanting to break out the sled.
I think it will be difficult for snow to accumulate because everyone will be above freezing in many locations including those on the snow axis(excluding high elevations) will be getting some evaporative cooling to help keep temps down enough to maintain snowfall.
gfs 12z hr 54

1:00 AM Thursday morning
Full change over to snow across most areas.

Agreed. Snow melt presents complications in addition to the sheer volume of water. Normal storm runoffs, drainage ditches, culverts will be blocked. The ground is mostly frozen so it won't absorb much. It will be a mess. A controlled and gradual melt is what you hope for.

Quoting 2. Grothar:

Serious flooding coming



12z gfs hr 54 850mb temps

Quoting Drakoen:

I think it will be difficult for snow to accumulate because everyone will be above freezing in many locations including those on the snow axis(excluding high elevations) will be getting some evaporative cooling to help keep temps down enough to maintain snowfall.


It will be close. It will also depend on how hard it's snowing.
I've been in accumulating snowfall with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s. But the snow didn't stick to the roads. It only accumulated on the grass/bushes, etc.
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
327 am EST Mon Nov 24 2014

..unsettled weather to continue with much cooler air arriving on
Tuesday...

Long term [wednesday night through monday]...
this period will be dry with surface high pressure in control.
Heights will also rise with zonal flow in place from Friday into the
weekend. A chilly air mass will be in place for a couple of more
days with Thursday and Friday feeling more like January than late
November.
Temperatures will moderate over the weekend with some
areas seeing 70 degrees by Sunday.
With all this talk about snow, we're still cooking in unseasonably warm weather down here in S.W. Fl.
Quoting 53. Sfloridacat5:

With all this talk about snow, we're still cooking in unseasonably warm weather down here in S.W. Fl.


That is unbelievable.
Statements

12:10 PM EST Monday 24 November 2014
Special weather statement in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Very mild air makes a brief visit today, then windy and turning colder as winter returns by Tuesday.

A deep low pressure area over Northeastern Ontario will track northeast into Western Quebec this evening. The majority of the rain has moved off into Quebec, however some showers and even the chance of a thunderstorm will linger today producing local rainfall amounts of 25 mm. Very mild air will pay a brief visit to the regions today with temperatures getting into the low to mid teens in many areas, with even a few upper teens possible such as in the Cornwall area this afternoon.

Meanwhile, a sharp Arctic cold front will blast east across the regions later today. It will be heralded by strong and gusty southwesterly winds, with gusts of 80 km/h being common over Southern Ontario and in Eastern Ontario near the north shore of Lake Ontario. A few gusts of 85 to 90 km/h are quite possible in some exposed areas. These strong and gusty winds will result in difficult driving conditions, especially on highways subject to strong cross winds.

Wind warnings are in effect for some locales near the Great Lakes.

Winter will return quickly tonight with temperatures in the wake of the front falling to just below freezing tonight, except in Eastern Ontario where they will drop to the low single digits. The return of colder air will result in the lake effect snow machine starting up tonight, with flurries to the Lee of the Great Lakes developing tonight. Snow squalls are possible over areas east of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay on Tuesday. Snow squall watches and warnings may be required as necessary.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at www.weatheroffice.gc.ca.
56. jpsb


Sea ice area is just about the same as last year but look at all that snow! And more on the way. Impressive.
Just walked the dogs, it is unseasonable hot outside here in South Miami Dade County! Let's hope that cold front does get here for Thursday!

Broken Clouds Broken Clouds
86°F
Feels Like: 94° Ceiling: 25000
Heat Index: 94° Visibility: 10mi
Dew Point: 74° Wind: 9mph
Humidity: 67% Direction: 140°SE
Pressure: 30" Gusts: NA
Quoting opal92nwf:

That is unbelievable.


Its feeling like summer again. Talk about whiplash!

Darned. Even the National Weather Service gets things backwards:
Quoting 21. Patrap:

Boone,N.C. forecast
The low will pass mainly off the coast...radiating Atlantic moisture westward over the appalachian chain Tuesday night. As the low deepens...it will cause winds to shift more northerly...drawing colder air into our area from the Great Lakes.

As of this forecast...snowfall accumulations are looking very much elevation based...with the Mountain Valley bottoms picking up very little snowfall through Wednesday evening...while a few of the ridgetops above 3000 feet may receive 3 to 5 inches. As such... snowfall amounts may vary significantly over short distances...



Physics tells us that a gas can't "pull" or "draw" mass from one location to another. That colder air mass is being pushed toward the South by the circulation as the cold dense air is pulled to the bottom of the atmosphere by gravity.

Since I live a bit north of Boone on top of a ridge at 3,000' elevation, I hope they are wrong on the snow fall estimate as well. If it's more than 2 inches, it's my job to plow the road in our S/D...
Quoting 58. WxGuy2014:



Its feeling like summer again. Talk about whiplash!




Very warm here in Tampa also. You can feel the soupy air mass. Tomorrow should be interesting with all of this moist, unstable air in place.
Thanks Dr. That time of the year now for several weeks as travelers for the Thanksgiving and Christmas Holidays remain at the mercy of the weather as they travel by air or car. You need to check your "reserves" and contingency plans in the event of weather-travel delays and it goes without saying that drivers need to be very careful out there this Winter.
12:49 PM EST Monday 24 November 2014
Wind warning in effect for:
•City of Toronto

Strong winds that may cause damage are expected or occurring.

A deep low over northeastern Ontario will drag a sharp cold front east across Southern Ontario this afternoon and evening. The front's arrival will be heralded by very strong and gusty southwesterly winds. Sustained wind speeds of 60 to 70 km/h with frequent gusts of 90 to 100 km/h are expected to begin this afternoon north of Lake Erie and early this evening north of Lake Ontario. These winds will be strong enough to cause some tree damage, with a few power outages possible as a result. The strong and gusty winds will also result in difficult driving conditions, especially on highways exposed to strong cross winds.

The winds will slowly diminish late tonight or Tuesday morning.

High winds may toss loose objects or cause tree branches to break. Be prepared to adjust your driving with changing road conditions due to high winds.

Wind warnings are issued when there is a significant risk of damaging winds.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required, so stay tuned to your local media or Weatheradio. Email reports of severe weather to storm.ontario@ec.gc.ca or tweet with the hashtag #ONStorm.
Quoting 59. EricGreen:

Darned. Even the National Weather Service gets things backwards:



Physics tells us that a gas can't "pull" or "draw" mass from one location to another. That colder air mass is being pushed toward the South by the circulation as the cold dense air is pulled to the bottom of the atmosphere by gravity.

Since I live a bit north of Boone on top of a ridge at 3,000' elevation, I hope they are wrong on the snow fall estimate as well. If it's more than 2 inches, it's my job to plow the road in our S/D...

Is that not what the article states? Northerly winds pushing colder air south from the Great Lakes into the Appalachians.

draw
verb
pull or move (something) in a specified direction.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Its already warmer than what they forecasted around here.

Quoting 66. WxGuy2014:



Its already warmer than what they forecasted around here.




87 in Fort Lauderdale is just unbelievable.
52. opal92nwf
12:42 PM EST on November 24, 2014


The roofers at the house here near Tally finished the outside on Friday and Saturday and I was grateful that large amounts of rain did not materialize on Saturday so they were able to finish. The inside folks at the house today spraying in the insulation against the new wood/trusses and the drywall should be up sometime tomorrow.

The point is that the insulation will be back up by the time of the Thurs-Friday cool down.........It was very chilly in the house the last few weeks.
Quoting 59. EricGreen:

Darned. Even the National Weather Service gets things backwards:



Physics tells us that a gas can't "pull" or "draw" mass from one location to another. That colder air mass is being pushed toward the South by the circulation as the cold dense air is pulled to the bottom of the atmosphere by gravity.

Since I live a bit north of Boone on top of a ridge at 3,000' elevation, I hope they are wrong on the snow fall estimate as well. If it's more than 2 inches, it's my job to plow the road in our S/D...


<-------Has property in Boone and Crossnore,..as we plan to retire there.
Quoting 25. Drakoen:

The UKMET 12z has made a healthy shift to the west and now hugs the coast. UKMET is coming inline with the ECMWF EPS with the baroclinic boundary setting up farther west as a result of a strong North Altantic ridge.



Nope, low stays offshore deepens and pulls more snow closer to the coast. Euro has just joined the rest of the models. If you look at my Florida Blog it details the track of the what looks to be a Nor Easter in the making on Wednesday. Basically a track that hugs the coast. Areas from DC to Boston are in for a decent snow event.
Quoting 67. tampabaymatt:



87 in Fort Lauderdale is just unbelievable.


Very hot here today. Very humid this morning.

Quoting 70. StormTrackerScott:



Nope, low stays offshore deepens and pulls more snow closer to the coast. Euro has just joined the rest of the models. If you look at my Florida Blog it details the track of the what looks to be a Nor Easter in the making on Wednesday. Basically a track that hugs the coast. Areas from DC to Boston are in for a decent snow event.
Nope you have no idea what you are talking about as usual. What I said about the UKMET 12z is correct. The ECMWF 12z did shift a little to the east which would be much better for the I-95 corridor to be mostly snow assuming low level temps will be supportive. Things are still vulnerable to shifts in ether direction although I favor the western solutions of the UKMET, ECMWF, CMC 12z runs because of upper level jet screaming out of the SSW along the eastern seaboard and the position of the western CONUS ridge.


Quoting 41. Neapolitan:

Indeed. But if you think it's crazy now, just wait another decade or so...



Quoting 74. Drakoen:


Nope you have no idea what you are talking about as usual. What I said about the UKMET 12z is correct. The ECMWF 12z did shift a little to the east which would be much better for the I-95 corridor to be mostly snow assuming low level temps will be supportive. Things are still vulnerable to shifts in ether direction although I favor the western solutions of the UKMET, ECMWF, CMC 12z runs because of upper level jet screaming out of the SSW along the eastern seaboard and the position of the western CONUS ridge.





HPC thinks the 12Z UKMET is the Goldilocks solution.....

THE PREFERENCE IS TO BE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD...IN
BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF. THE 12Z UKMET FITS CLOSEST TO THIS
PREFERENCE..


Link

Quoting 76. StormTrackerScott:



Well that is your opinion I just think it frustrates you to see me right all the time. Again I favor a track of the low just offshore bringing snow much closer to the coast.


LOL. God Bless!!!!


heavy snow where i iive at
excuse me while i change subjects and answer rachel ray on the telly


all the time????.....bwahaha.......most of the time????....bwahaha........some of the time.......bwahaha........occasionaly......sure!!!

now back to the subject at hand......if you have the time and inclination....drak.......any....and all.......concerning track and intensity to the forthcoming nor'easter.....anyone have anything more than a model to base their opinions on?
Quoting 79. hurricanes2018:



heavy snow where i iive at


Congrates on having your photos Used today
For the record because I do not want other bloggers to misconstrue my forecast because of allegations made by others...I favor a track just off the the southeast U.S. coast maybe even hugging the coast then heading NNE to NE just West of the Benchmark. Such a track would put areas like DC-PHIL-NYC on the rain/snow line. If precip falls heavily enough to dynamically cool the boundary layer then significant snow amounts could occur in those aforementioned areas. Otherwise this track is good for the interior with heavy snow along the I-81 corridor initially then between the I-81 corridor and the I-95 corridor in the Northeast region.
Not much difference IMHO with modeling/track issues with Winter Storms than with hurricane tracks; we can get a pretty good idea of where the storms will be from model consensus and satt presentation but "wobbles" can make the difference of a few hundred miles in terms of ultimate impacts and which actual track the storm takes.

Here is what conus looks like at the moment in terms of the pending set up and the jet:





For the record because I do not want other bloggers to misconstrue my forecast because of allegations made by others...I favor a track just off the the southeast U.S. coast maybe even hugging the coast then heading NNE to NE just West of the Benchmark. Such a track would put areas like DC-PHIL-NYC on the rain/snow line. If precip falls heavily enough to dynamically cool the boundary layer then significant snow amounts could occur in those aforementioned areas. Otherwise this track is good for the interior with heavy snow along the I-81 corridor initially then between the I-81 corridor and the I-95 corridor in the Northeast region.

hey drak...i'm sure i missed it...but why did you move to alaska???
85. bwi
Quoting 82. Drakoen:

For the record because I do not want other bloggers to misconstrue my forecast because of allegations made by others...I favor a track just off the the southeast U.S. coast maybe even hugging the coast then heading NNE to NE just West of the Benchmark. Such a track would put areas like DC-PHIL-NYC on the rain/snow line. If precip falls heavily enough to dynamically cool the boundary layer then significant snow amounts could occur in those aforementioned areas. Otherwise this track is good for the interior with heavy snow along the I-81 corridor initially then between the I-81 corridor and the I-95 corridor in the Northeast region.



BTW nice call on the Miller A setup a few days ago. Nice thing about this blog is advance heads up on potential events. That said, my secret weather finger says no accumulation for DC, just sloppy wet stuff that melts on contact even if it makes it all the way down frozen.
Quoting 76. StormTrackerScott:



Well that is your opinion I just think it frustrates you to see me right all the time. Again I favor a track of the low just offshore bringing snow much closer to the coast.


LOL Jeff!

Right all the time? What about that crow?

263. StormTrackerScott
7:01 PM EST on November 18, 2014
Some of these wind profiles that I am see this evening are giving the indication that severe weather could be widespread across C & N FL on Sunday and Louisana to FL Panhandle Saturday Night. Could be some pretty strong tornadoes as well.

143. StormTrackerScott
3:05 PM EST on November 18, 2014
Well the Euro is similar to the Canadian. I've been right on just about every weather event lately here so watch out as you could get another dish of crow heading your way as the Euro has a nasty bunch of thunderstorms at 12Z Sunday just off the west coast of FL. 12Z Is 7am Sunday so yes Sunday looks stormy from Tampa Bay north and you can expect you local weather offices to up the rain chances Sunday thru next Wednesday. Some of those days we could have severe weather.

Sunday is the day I am most interesting in right now as we could have a severe weather outbreak beginning Saturday night in Louisiana and spreading east into FL on Sunday.

1. StormTrackerScott
12:01 PM EST on November 18, 2014
Looks like a rough Sunday from Tampa Bay north. Classic severe weather signature here. Reminds of the 1997/1998 severe events across FL.



Bullseye right on Tampa Bay.
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters,
BTW nice call on the Miller A setup a few days ago. Nice thing about this blog is advance heads up on potential events. That said, my secret weather finger says no accumulation for DC, just sloppy wet stuff that melts on contact even if it makes it all the way down frozen.

that sounds like here in el paso when we get our once a year snow blast...only once in my 5 years here did we get enough to stick for more than a day and that was because a strong cold front followed....we didn't get above the low 20's for four days......froze pipes all across town

Quoting 84. ricderr:

For the record because I do not want other bloggers to misconstrue my forecast because of allegations made by others...I favor a track just off the the southeast U.S. coast maybe even hugging the coast then heading NNE to NE just West of the Benchmark. Such a track would put areas like DC-PHIL-NYC on the rain/snow line. If precip falls heavily enough to dynamically cool the boundary layer then significant snow amounts could occur in those aforementioned areas. Otherwise this track is good for the interior with heavy snow along the I-81 corridor initially then between the I-81 corridor and the I-95 corridor in the Northeast region.

hey drak...i'm sure i missed it...but why did you move to alaska???
Ric...you have me confused with...Dakster.
Drak, what do you think about the Boston area? I'll be in between Boston and Providence, right on I95. Always a tough spot for forecasting. Probably more rain/mix for me? A slushy inch or two of snow maybe?
Ric...you have me confused with...Dakster.



duhhhh...lol...i sure did....sorry bubba....my bad
weather whiplash...good one

New Smyrna Beach, FL 
2:19 PM EST on November 24, 2014 (GMT -0500)
Isleboro | Elev 28 ft 29.06 °N, 80.95 °W
Partly Cloudy 86.0 °
Just as I posted a little earlier, the low is forecast to stay off the mid Atlantic coast.
I haven't seen any models that bring the Low on the coast as it passes the mid Atlantic region.

Going with this forecast is in close agreement with the current thinking from the NWS.

FYI, a new radar palette has just been launched across all of WU. The new palette uses light green instead of gray for the weakest echoes, to help identify where it is raining. The transition from light to moderate intensity has been made more abrupt, to help emphasize where heavier precipitation is occurring.

Dr. M.

FYI, a new radar palette has just been launched across all of WU. The new palette uses light green instead of gray for the weakest echoes, to help identify where it is raining. The transition from light to moderate intensity has been made more abrupt, to help emphasize where heavier precipitation is occurring.



thanx for the info doc.....that's much appreciated
New green colors, purples more vivid too


Quoting Grothar:


Very hot here today. Very humid this morning.
Had to use wipers this morning!
We've seen this before .  Mother Nature just loading up her  energy banks with a full load of heat and moisture.
Regardless of track I'm going with the + side of the precip accumulations.


Quoting 75. VR46L:







Dr. Tommy Pickles is now a Climatologist working at Penn State.

His thoughts are in line with mine as to how all the Global ob's and actual Global temps are trending Higher in pace and overall effects than the modeling.

A continuing obs I may add.
Forecast for Washington D.C. (NWS).

The trend has been to drop the temperatures for Wednesday, Wednesday night, and Thursday for the DC area.
Also, as predicted, the NWS is forecasting the snow to end during the early morning hours on Thursday in the DC area.

Wednesday Rain before 11am, then rain and snow. High near 41. North wind 6 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Wednesday Night A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Thanksgiving Day A chance of snow showers before 8am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

So just outside the city, temperatures should get down in the upper 20s on Wednesday night.

Quoting 96. JeffMasters:

FYI, a new radar palette has just been launched across all of WU. The new palette uses light green instead of gray for the weakest echoes, to help identify where it is raining. The transition from light to moderate intensity has been made more abrupt, to help emphasize where heavier precipitation is occurring.

Dr. M.


More detailed info here:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/wuproductteam/co mment.html?entrynum=8

Jeff Masters
103. MahFL
Quoting 96. JeffMasters:

FYI, a new radar palette has just been launched across all of WU. .

Dr. M.


Is that for only radar with the snow/rain option ticked ?

Quoting 91. MAweatherboy1:

Drak, what do you think about the Boston area? I'll be in between Boston and Providence, right on I95. Always a tough spot for forecasting. Probably more rain/mix for me? A slushy inch or two of snow maybe?
Mixing issues and backend snow. Closer to Boston better back end but still mixing issues due to 700mb WAA.
The new radar color scheme is great and it's easier to see the different levels of echo intensity.
Confirmed! 88 Second 'The Force Awakens' Teaser Trailer Coming This Weekend

State City Theatre Name
CA Irvine Edwards Irvine Spectrum 22 & IMAX
CA San Diego Edwards Mira Mesa Stadium 18 IMAX & RPX
GA Atlanta Regal Atlantic Station Stadium 18 IMAX & RPX
IL Chicago Regal City North Stadium 14 IMAX & RPX
NY New York Regal Union Square Stadium 14
PA Warrington Regal Warrington Crossing Stadium 22 & IMAX
TN Knoxville Regal Pinnacle Stadium 18 IMAX & RPX
TX Houston Edwards Houston Marq'E Stadium 23 IMAX & RPX
WA Seattle Regal Thornton Place Stadium 14 & IMAX
Quoting 100. Patrap:



Dr. Tommy Pickles is now a Climatologist working at Penn State.

His thoughts are in line with mine as to how all the Global ob's and actual Global temps are trending Higher in pace and overall effects than the modeling.

A continuing obs I may add.
faster and faster we go
Quoting 108. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

faster and faster we go

Pull them belts tight and enjoy the ride.....
Quoting 102. JeffMasters:



More detailed info here:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/wuproductteam/co mment.html?entrynum=8

Jeff Masters
thanks going to check it out
I'm not going to consider this the first snow storm of the season unless we get 2 inches or more (no slop not count in my eyes)

I'm not going to consider this the first snow storm of the season unless we get 2 inches or more (no slop not count in my eyes)

ahem...snow snob.......a trace and we get all giddy here....LOL
Winter Storm Watches now up for Washington's northern and western suburbs. Sterling says potential for 5 or more inches of snow, along with dangerous travel along the I-81 corridor.
NWS Sterling has also increased the snow totals on the maximum potential snow amounts.
More news from the unsettled science front:

Antarctic ice thicker than previously thought, study finds

I find this discovery amazing! You would think that we know everything about every square inch of this planet...but in the year 2014...that is far from the truth.

In fact, science has discovered what amounts to "only the tip tip top of the iceberg."
Quoting 112. ricderr:


I'm not going to consider this the first snow storm of the season unless we get 2 inches or more (no slop not count in my eyes)

ahem...snow snob.......a trace and we get all giddy here....LOL


We get giddy when someone post the pix of snow on a car windshield in Tampa from 1977.
Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 12:18 PM PST on November 24, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
72.3 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Heat Index: 73 °F
Humidity: 12%
Dew Point: 17 °F
Wind: 7.0 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 27.0 mph
Pressure: 30.19 in (Falling)
Forecast is 76 for today, currently 72.9
Low was 51.8
Quoting 118. PedleyCA:

Indian Hills, Riverside, California (PWS)
Updated: 12:18 PM PST on November 24, 2014
Mostly Cloudy
72.3 °F
Mostly Cloudy
Heat Index: 73 °F
Humidity: 12%
Dew Point: 17 °F
Wind: 7.0 mph from the ESE
Wind Gust: 27.0 mph
Pressure: 30.19 in (Falling)
Forecast is 76 for today, currently 72.9
Low was 51.8


My sinuses couldn't take a dew point of 17.
Quoting 119. tampabaymatt:




I fertilized my lawn this morning in anticipation of this wonderful rain event.
Quoting 121. luvtogolf:



I fertilized my lawn this morning in anticipation of this wonderful rain event.


Seems to be very uncertain where the heavy action will occur. I think most of the area can bank on solid rainfall totals, with potential 3+ totals possible in some spots where training might happen. I’ll probably lower my pool level tonight to prepare.
image gif not working incomplete
Quoting 122. tampabaymatt:



Seems to be very uncertain where the heavy action will occur. I think most of the area can bank on solid rainfall totals, with potential 3+ totals possible in some spots where training might happen. I’ll probably lower my pool level tonight to prepare.


It's a sure bet that everyone is going to get a good soaking. The question is if one area gets under a training event then they could get some serious rains. Typically this time of year our rain chances are high for a short time (as the cold front sweeps through). This is different as the front stalls, low pressure crosses the state and moisture contents are very high. We have high rain chances Tues/Tues night and Wed.
Heavy rain moving in towards Panama City Beach.
gfs shows another warm up at end of the period

Quoting 125. luvtogolf:



It's a sure bet that everyone is going to get a good soaking. The question is if one area gets under a training event then they could get some serious rains. Typically this time of year our rain chances are high for a short time (as the cold front sweeps through). This is different as the front stalls, low pressure crosses the state and moisture contents are very high. We have high rain chances Tues/Tues night and Wed.



Did you say...training and tall a out rain totals...guess no one can say you never talk about weather
Quoting 128. ricderr:




Did you say...training and tall a out rain totals...guess no one can say you never talk about weather


LOL. Just wait until I post my thoughts on Isentropic Lift...
Excuse me while I tall to myself....sitting in my wife's office while she takes a nap...she wanted company...makes me go a little crazy


He said training....I would ha w bet he thought that was what he put under his Christmas tree.....and soaking....pffft....what would happen if I challenged him to a round of golf.....and I'm not near brave enough to tell him that he actually fertilized his pool and not his yard...lalalala....off to make a little mischief on the political blogs
Quoting luvtogolf:


It's a sure bet that everyone is going to get a good soaking. The question is if one area gets under a training event then they could get some serious rains. Typically this time of year our rain chances are high for a short time (as the cold front sweeps through). This is different as the front stalls, low pressure crosses the state and moisture contents are very high. We have high rain chances Tues/Tues night and Wed.


It might even rain Wednesday night in S.E. Florida as the front is clearing the state.
Quoting 129. luvtogolf:



LOL. Just wait until I post my thoughts on Isentropic Lift...


Fancy term. Big man. ;)
Quoting 129. luvtogolf:



LOL. Just wait until I post my thoughts on Isentropic Lift...



Crap...There went my political time
..gonna have to read up on atomic....errr...schematic.....ummmmm isometric....grrrr...my phone won't type isentropic lift
Quoting 132. KoritheMan:



Fancy term. Big man. ;)


I luv Google!
Quoting 134. luvtogolf:



I luv Google!


K̶o̶r̶i̶ ̶W̶i̶n̶s̶t̶e̶a̶d̶ Nobody likes this.
Quoting 130. ricderr:

Excuse me while I tall to myself....sitting in my wife's office while she takes a nap...she wanted company...makes me go a little crazy


He said training....I would ha w bet he thought that was what he put under his Christmas tree.....and soaking....pffft....what would happen if I challenged him to a round of golf.....and I'm not near brave enough to tell him that he actually fertilized his pool and not his yard...lalalala....off to make a little mischief on the political blogs


I didn't fertilize my pool. I pressure washed it, except with the pressure washer in the pool. Damn, I'm still pissed about that.
Quoting 131. Sfloridacat5:



It might even rain Wednesday night in S.E. Florida as the front is clearing the state.


I'm going to take some water out of my pool tonight just to play safe. My part of Hillsborough county is usually a bullseye when a heavy rain event occurs. Of course, once I do that, we'll get less than an inch.
Temperatures around 40 here in St. Louis with winds gusting over 30 mph.
Quoting 133. ricderr:




Crap...There went my political time
..gonna have to read up on atomic....errr...schematic.....ummmmm isometric....grrrr...my phone won't type isentropic lift


Take off the predictive text so you can just type it out. ;)
Quoting 137. tampabaymatt:



I'm going to take some water out of my pool tonight just to play safe. My part of Hillsborough county is usually a bullseye when a heavy rain event occurs. Of course, once I do that, we'll get less than an inch.


If you've been reading my posts, I tried putting water into my pool today. I'm with you, I may take a little bit out tonight.
Quoting 136. luvtogolf:



I didn't fertilize my pool. I pressure washed it, except with the pressure washer in the pool. Damn, I'm still pissed about that.


Look on the bright side. You were not using an "Electric" Pressure Washer.
I would not have made it out of the pool alive. At least you did! ^_^
Quoting 116. CycloneOz:

More news from the unsettled science front:

Antarctic ice thicker than previously thought, study finds

I find this discovery amazing! You would think that we know everything about every square inch of this planet...but in the year 2014...that is far from the truth.

In fact, science has discovered what amounts to "only the tip tip top of the iceberg."
From the same page you posted about Antarctic Sea Ice..



Suzanne Goldenberg

Sunday 29 June 2014 13.21 EDT





The entire population of Antarctica's famous emperor penguins could fall by a third by the end of the century because of disappearing sea ice, putting them at risk of extinction, researchers said on Sunday.

The finding justified protecting emperor penguins under the endangered species act – as America already does for polar bear – the researchers writing in the journal Nature Climate Change said.

They also called for marine reserves to buffer the fish stocks penguin need to survive.

“The population is declining. Unless something changes to stop that, the population will go into extinction,” said Hal Caswell, senior scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, and one of the authors.

As a top predator in Antarctica, the main threat to emperor penguins’ survival comes from climate change which is melting the sea ice.

The loss of sea ice is reducing the supply of krill, the tiny shrimp-like crustaceans that populate the Southern Ocean, and are the emperor penguins’ main food source. Young krill feed off of algae living in the sea ice. When the ice goes, so do the krill.

Changes in the ice around Antarctica may - in the short term - boost some of the emperor penguin populations, especially along the Ross Sea, the researchers said. Sea ice off the western coast of Antarctica has been on the increase, because of break-up of glaciers and winds.

But by 2100, all 45 known emperor penguin colonies of Antarctica will be on the decline because of loss of sea ice. Those located on the coasts of the eastern Weddell Sea and the western Indian Ocean will show the sharpest drops. Nine colonies are projected to be “quasi-extinct”, the researchers said.
Quoting 139. TimTheWxMan:



Take off the predictive text so you can just type it out. ;)


"Predictive text?" wat

Uh dude... that's freaking called autocorrect.
Quoting 141. RTLSNK:



Look on the bright side. You were not using an "Electric" Pressure Washer.
I would not have made it out of the pool alive. At least you did! ^_^


You're right about that one.
Quoting 140. luvtogolf:



If you've been reading my posts, I tried putting water into my pool today. I'm with you, I may take a little bit out tonight.


My home was built about 2 years ago and the geniuses decided to put the pool overflow pipe directly in the backyard. Translation %u2013 whenever we get heavy rains, the pool begins to empty out right onto my lawn. So, I have to actively manage it or else pool water slowly kills my grass. If only I could go back and demand the builder reconfigure that. During the rainy season, I set up a hose from the pump out to the driveway and leave it there for about 4 months so I can just flip the switch if I need to.
Quoting hydrus:
From the same page you posted about Antarctic Sea Ice.
Suzanne Goldenberg

Sunday 29 June 2014 13.21 EDT

The entire population of Antarctica's famous emperor penguins could fall by a third by the end of the century because of disappearing sea ice, putting them at risk of extinction, researchers said on Sunday.


I am surprised you did not post about the demise of the polar bear, too.
Quoting TimTheWxMan:
Temperatures around 40 here in St. Louis with winds gusting over 30 mph.


Not the best weather for riots, but we'll see.
Quoting 146. CycloneOz:



I am surprised you did not post about the demise of the polar bear, too.
Some already posted it.
Quoting 144. luvtogolf:



You're right about that one.


I have a 1700 psi Greenworks electric pressure washer that I use to clean the driveway and front and back tile porches with. Don't have a pool, and would never use an electric washer to clean the pool deck even if I did. But I have a really silly friend that did. He didn't fall in, but it was close. LOL
Quoting 143. KoritheMan:



"Predictive text?" wat

Uh dude... that's freaking called autocorrect.


My phone actually says that in the settings. Whenever i would type a word, it shows 3 other words, "guessing" what you're going to type. I thought that's what he meant.
Quoting 147. CycloneOz:



Not the best weather for riots, but we'll see.


Oh, there'll be riots. Some look for an excuse to do so, but let's not go off-topic and talk about that. There are live updates on yahoo instead.
Quoting CycloneOz:
More news from the unsettled science front:

Antarctic ice thicker than previously thought, study finds

I find this discovery amazing! You would think that we know everything about every square inch of this planet...but in the year 2014...that is far from the truth.

In fact, science has discovered what amounts to "only the tip tip top of the iceberg."
That's an interesting find, and one that makes it all the more amazing that that ice fringing Antarctic manages to melt out completely every summer.
There would need to be another invasion of the dreaded Polar Express to keep people indoors.

It's going to be interesting on Thanksgiving for the Parade. NYC is expecting high winds on Thanksgiving. Some of the floats may not get to fly that day.
Quoting 150. TimTheWxMan:



My phone actually says that in the settings. Whenever i would type a word, it shows 3 other words, "guessing" what you're going to type. I thought that's what he meant.


'Round these here parts we call it autocorrect, son.

Ain't that right, Spot (a dog I just made up for this post)?
Quoting 115. teddyg1996:

NWS Sterling has also increased the snow totals on the maximum potential snow amounts.
wow 18 inches of snow
Rain totals are starting to add up in the Panhandle.


Below are maps from the current run for Wednesday (7pm) of the new global weather model from Germany, called "Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic general circulation model" ---- uuups? ---- beneficially shorthened into ICON. If you like to know a bit more about it, feel free to visit my blog where I've tried to gather some infos although I'm leaving my comfort zone with this subject, lol. If you don't like to visit my blog go here to the German Weather Service for a start. ICON model is currently still on a test run and will be introduced in January.

ICON Northern Hemisphere Temp. and Geop. 500hpa:

(Not saved) Source.

ICON Humidity map 700hpa for Wednesday:

(Not saved) Source

Have a nice evening and good night!
Quoting teddyg1996:
NWS Sterling has also increased the snow totals on the maximum potential snow amounts.


That map shows 13.8" for Washington DC.
That would break the all time snowfall record for DC in November.
I don't see it happening.
God I hate always getting sick every holiday.

/seppuku
Quoting KoritheMan:
God I hate always getting sick every holiday.

/seppuku


When I was living in America, I got sick at least twice a year.

I have been here in Ecuador for two years and have yet to get sick.

Interesting...
Quoting 162. Sfloridacat5:



That map shows 13.8" for Washington DC.
That would break the all time snowfall record for DC in November.
I don't see it happening.

That's the 90th percentile map--in other words, the most reasonable worst-case scenario.

Here's what LWX is actually forecasting:

Quoting 163. KoritheMan:

God I hate always getting sick every holiday.

/seppuku
I had a cold Thanksgiving week back in 2012.So I know how it feels.
Quoting 160. barbamz:



Below are (not saved) maps from the current run for Wednesday (7pm) of the new global weather model from Germany, called "Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic general circulation model" ---- uuups? ---- beneficially shorthened into ICON. If you like to know a bit more about it, feel free to visit my blog where I've tried to gather some infos although I'm leaving my comfort zone with this subject, lol. If you don't like to visit my blog go here to the German Weather Service for a start.

ICON Northern Hemisphere Temp. and Geop. 500hpa:

Source.

ICON Humidity map 700hpa for Wednesday:

Source

Have a nice evening and good night!


Looks pretty interesting!
Washington D.C. tied their record high with 74 degrees.

It got up to 87 degrees in the shade on my weather station here in South Fort Myers. It's still 81 degrees right now.
Man talk about feast or famine the last couple months! At my apartment, we had 4.26 for October, with 4.02 coming from one day, October 14th, the rest of the rain came from only 2 other days with precip earlier in the month. We did not get any precip the rest of October. This dry streak continued into November, going all the way until November 17 without measureable rain, or 33 days straight without rain after that 4.02 rain day!

So, coming into this past weekend, we only had 0.28 for November which fell on the 17th, however, since this weekend we have hit another deluge after the extremely long dry streak with so far 1.05 for Saturday, 2.72 yesterday, and 0.9 today so far.

This puts as at whopping 4.67 since Saturday! More heavy rain is developing off to our southeast now as we speak, and with additional shortwave energy set to develop gulf low pressure, mode guidance shows another widespread 1-2+ through tomorrow, this is crazy!


000
FXUS62 KTAE 242028
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
328 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
An extensive area of showers with isolated thunderstorms will
continue to stream across the region this afternoon and evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front will stall across
the region this afternoon further acting to focus additional shower
development in the overnight hours. While rainfall amounts will be
on the lighter side tonight, expect good coverage across the area,
so have increased rain chances to 60-70 percent, especially across
the Florida Big Bend and into South Central Georgia.


.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The front will stall today as mentioned in the near term discussion
and will shift very little through Tuesday evening, finally pushing
eastward late Tuesday night. Since deep layer steering flow will be
from the southwest, a rich moisture plume from the Gulf will
continue to move over the eastern third of our area. Storm total
precipitation will be around 1.75-2.5" in the Florida Big Bend
and
in south-central Georgia, 0.5-1.5" in SE Alabama, SW Georgia, and
the Florida Panhandle Tuesday through Tuesday night, with isolated
higher totals possible. With another rainy day on tap Tuesday,
temperatures are expected to stay fairly cool during the day and
relatively warm at night, with highs in the mid to upper 50s, low
60s in the eastern Big Bend, and lows in the 40s, upper 30s in SE
Alabama where colder air will begin to move in overnight behind the
front.

By Wednesday, higher pressure will begin to build eastward and a
cooler, drier airmass will begin to move in, with only slight
chances for rain in our easternmost zones Wednesday morning. Highs
Wednesday will be around 60 and lows Wednesday night will be in the
upper 30s, low 40s along the immediate coastline.




What is funny is that while November is usually a relatively dry month, we were on pace to be near record dry, now we are above average rain for November just from this one system! I'll be posting back later to see just how much we get before all is said and done!
Quoting 167. TimTheWxMan:



Looks pretty interesting!
looks kinda like a dual vortex
Quoting Drakoen:

Nope you have no idea what you are talking about as usual. What I said about the UKMET 12z is correct. The ECMWF 12z did shift a little to the east which would be much better for the I-95 corridor to be mostly snow assuming low level temps will be supportive. Things are still vulnerable to shifts in ether direction although I favor the western solutions of the UKMET, ECMWF, CMC 12z runs because of upper level jet screaming out of the SSW along the eastern seaboard and the position of the western CONUS ridge.


I think the jet speed and direction plus that western ridge would certainly indicate a track much closer to or possibly even over the coast. The low is going to get picked up the jet and catapulted north. The very slowly moving cold front is also going to provide a track for the low, and it should be very near the coast this time tomorrow. Just as a reference, the front was supposed to have made through SE AL by noon. It still hasn't reached here, with a temperature of 75 with a high of 86. Unless the cold front moves further offshore than predicted, a westward track doesn't look likely. Where rain will fall compared to snow is still up in the air, and we won't have a better handle on this until the low actually starts moving north.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I might talk to you about the weather station you hooked up.
I have an older model Vantage Vue that's wireless, but it's not connected to the internet.
I'm going to be setting up a weather station at our school (that's reasonably priced) after the winter break.
I think something similar to your setup would be good. I want the students to be able to log on and check the weather conditions at the school.
Quoting 166. washingtonian115:

I had a cold Thanksgiving week back in 2012.So I know how it feels.


Holiday pay or not, I'll call in sick Thursday if I have to.

And it's not because it's Thanksgiving. I'm very much a holiday scrooge. :)
Looks like our Noah's ark flood is going to share some of the wealth for Central Florida tomorrow, happy to see that as well!

Quoting 172. sar2401:

I think the jet speed and direction plus that western ridge would certainly indicate a track much closer to or possibly even over the coast. The low is going to get picked up the jet and catapulted north. The very slowly moving cold front is also going to provide a track for the low, and it should be very near the coast this time tomorrow. Just as a reference, the front was supposed to have made through SE AL by noon. It still hasn't reached here, with a temperature of 75 with a high of 86. Unless the cold front moves further offshore than predicted, a westward track doesn't look likely. Where rain will fall compared to snow is still up in the air, and we won't have a better handle on this until the actually starts moving north.

This does not make any sense.
Quoting 164. CycloneOz:



When I was living in America, I got sick at least twice a year.

I have been here in Ecuador for two years and have yet to get sick.

Interesting...
wait till ya come back
Quoting 175. Jedkins01:

Looks like our Noah's ark flood is going to share some of the wealth for Central Florida tomorrow, happy to see that as well!


just say NO! don't want any water in the Okeechobee Lake watershed.... I just looked at the Tally radar, storm accumulation.. wow.. 11 inches in two days is a LOT...especially hilly land. Y'all are gettin' the wet was.
Quoting 163. KoritheMan:
God I hate always getting sick every holiday.

/seppuku


Woke up with what I think is strep this morning, and I work in a call center. I know that feel.
Quoting 159. Sfloridacat5:

Rain totals are starting to add up in the Panhandle.



Actual totals have been quite a bit higher, I've had 4.67 so far and I'm in the 2-3 inch color shading, and other obs are in my range of rainfall as well, which is a good bit higher than estimates.
Quoting 174. KoritheMan:



Holiday pay or not, I'll call in sick Thursday if I have to.

And it's not because it's Thanksgiving. I'm very much a holiday scrooge. :)
(Looks at kid your) Your about to have your hope destroyed!

Here's a run down of Articles from CWG
Link
Link
Link
Quoting 178. indianrivguy:



just say NO! don't want any water in the Okeechobee Lake watershed.... I just looked at the Tally radar, storm accumulation.. wow.. 11 inches in two days is a LOT...especially hilly land. Y'all are gettin' the wet was.


We haven't had 11 inches, but the Tallahassee area has had anywhere from 4-7 inches with the event so far which is still a heck of a lot of rain, and some other areas have had even a couple more inches than I've had. With model guidance showing widespread totals of 1-2.5 with isolated higher amounts possible through tomorrow. total rainfall could end of being 5-10 for the region!

Quoting 173. Sfloridacat5:



I might talk to you about the weather station you hooked up.
I have an older model Vantage Vue that's wireless, but it's not connected to the internet.
I'm going to be setting up a weather station at our school (that's reasonably priced) after the winter break.
I think something similar to your setup would be good. I want the students to be able to log on and check the weather conditions at the school.


any time
depending on the model you are interested in
getting it too update on the WU is pretty easy
the model I have only updates to the wu
it now comes with a wireless connection for weather bug and cloud or something
not sure but I know the newer model comes with more hookup to many other sites
I don't use those services so updating to the WU is fine with me
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


any time
depending on the model you are interested in
getting it too update on the WU is pretty easy
the model I have only updates to the wu
it now comes with a wireless connection for weather bug and cloud or something
not sure but I know the newer model comes with more hookup to many other sites
I don't use those services so updating to the WU is fine with me


Cool thanks.
I've been given the green light to set something up. I'm just going to wait until the beginning of the third quarter to set something up. The third quarter starts sometime in January (can't remember the exact date).

Quoting Drakoen:


This does not make any sense.
Sorry, Drak, my direction dyslexia strikes again. I obviously meant an eastward track, not westward. I'm basically agreeing with your forecast.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
wait till ya come back


I know, right?
Quoting 184. Sfloridacat5:



Cool thanks.
I've been given the green light to set something up. I'm just going to wait until the beginning of the third quarter to set something up. The third quarter starts sometime in January (can't remember the exact date).


my model is ws 1000 its been replaced with the ws 1001 now since adding the new connections I have everything except the additional connections plus I do the firmware updates as they come out on my sd card
Quoting 186. CycloneOz:



I know, right?
serious you always get wicked sick when ya come back its the change of the climate that does it
Quoting Jedkins01:


We haven't had 11 inches, but the Tallahassee area has had anywhere from 4-7 inches with the event so far which is still a heck of a lot of rain, and some other areas have had even a couple more inches than I've had. With model guidance showing widespread totals of 1-2.5 with isolated higher amounts possible through tomorrow. total rainfall could end of being 5-10 for the region!

It looks like we'll be lucky to pick up half an inch, darn it. I'm up top 2.35" for the month but only because I got 1.66" yesterday. It looks like the worm is going turn after the shortwave goes through, and we'll be in for an extended period of dry and at least seasonable temperatures, if not above normal by the weekend.
CNN just showed the difference between the Euro and the GFS for the amount of snow this week.

Quoting Jedkins01:


We haven't had 11 inches, but the Tallahassee area has had anywhere from 4-7 inches with the event so far which is still a heck of a lot of rain, and some other areas have had even a couple more inches than I've had. With model guidance showing widespread totals of 1-2.5 with isolated higher amounts possible through tomorrow. total rainfall could end of being 5-10 for the region!



Here in Fort Myers our last decent rain was last Monday with .82"
Hopefully we'll get in on the action sometime tomorrow.
We've had 1.58" for November, which is just a little below normal.
But we only had 1.32" in October.

You've had more rain in the past couple days than we've had in two months.
Quoting 96. JeffMasters:

FYI, a new radar palette has just been launched across all of WU. The new palette uses light green instead of gray for the weakest echoes, to help identify where it is raining. The transition from light to moderate intensity has been made more abrupt, to help emphasize where heavier precipitation is occurring.

Dr. M.


I really enjoy the new palette, its a great change, thanks Dr. Masters!
Quoting Sfloridacat5:


Cool thanks.
I've been given the green light to set something up. I'm just going to wait until the beginning of the third quarter to set something up. The third quarter starts sometime in January (can't remember the exact date).

You might want to take a look at the Accurite models. It's less than half the price of the Vantage line. I've had mine for almost three years and it has been very reliable so far. Completely wireless with an amazingly good range and it was easy to set up for the WU PWS site. The color display is really nice as well, although you can see everything on your computer in color regardless of the model.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
serious you always get wicked sick when ya come back its the change of the climate that does it


I am too old to be getting wicked sick.

Anything less serious I can probably handle.
at least all the high wind gusts stay offshore with moderate gusts on the back side

hr 54 wind gusts kmh

Quoting 190. Sfloridacat5:

CNN just showed the difference between the Euro and the GFS for the amount of snow this week.



Here in Fort Myers our last decent rain was last Monday with .82"
Hopefully we'll get in on the action sometime tomorrow.
We've had 1.58" for November, which is just a little below normal.
But we only had 1.32" in October.

You've had more rain in the past couple days than we've had in two months.


Yeah you look to be right on the transition zone of forecast between really heavy totals and not nearly as much, so it will be a touch call as to how much you might get, and really that means it could go either way, you could end up with a lot or not very much.

Hopefully you'll get a lot of rain, it will be interesting to see how much rain some areas get in Central Florida, as November isn't normally a very wet month, but this system being slow moving combined with PW's over the 90th percentile for November, heavy rain potential will remain very high as the system digs further southeast into the state.
November is on average the driest month of the year in Tallahassee, so I'm not complaining. We went from unusually dry for even the driest month of the year to extremely wet. We've had so much rain that even though my apartment complex is on a hill, there is plenty of standing water in the grassy area behind my apartment,
Quoting 189. sar2401:

It looks like we'll be lucky to pick up half an inch, darn it. I'm up top 2.35" for the month but only because I got 1.66" yesterday. It looks like the worm is going turn after the shortwave goes through, and we'll be in for an extended period of dry and at least seasonable temperatures, if not above normal by the weekend.


Yep after this it will dry out up there and here for a while, but after this we could use some drying, this has been down right nuts to see this amount of rain in November, normally the driest month of the year here and in most if not all of Florida.

At least you got 1.66, that's still a good amount!

Meanwhile, there is a really nasty looking cell heading this way with a lot of lightning flashes, even has a bow echo look to it, if the convection wasn't elevated this cell would have a warning probably. I wasn't expecting any activity with this much intensity and lightning tonight.
Quoting 182. Jedkins01:



We haven't had 11 inches, but the Tallahassee area has had anywhere from 4-7 inches with the event so far which is still a heck of a lot of rain, and some other areas have had even a couple more inches than I've had. With model guidance showing widespread totals of 1-2.5 with isolated higher amounts possible through tomorrow. total rainfall could end of being 5-10 for the region!




You're a little high on rainfall. According to KTLH radar most locations have only received STA of 3-5 inches.
Here is another unsettled science update:

Great Lakes ice cover developing; Earliest in over 40 years

I want an ICEE now for some reason...
From Miami NWS...

FRONT TEMPORARILY STALLS OVER THE NE GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT IN THE
GULF. WE SHOULD SEE A RATHER SHARP MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH, WITH HIGHEST MOISTURE AND FAVORED DYNAMICS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY, WITH PERHAPS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA CATCHING THE
LAKE AREA AND THE NAPLES REGION. REST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY ON TAP (PERHAPS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER DUE TO INCREASING CLOUDS). HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INCREASING
DYNAMICS, ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MAKING STEADY SOUTHWARD PROGRESS TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF FLORIDA. THERE COULD
BE A WINDOW BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS,
ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE GULF COAST, IF THE PRE-
FRONTAL BAND OF CONVECTION CAN HOLD TOGETHER. BELIEVE THERE`S A
CHANCE THIS COULD OCCUR BUT IT WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NAPLES AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE WEDNESDAY,
THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY MIDDAY. A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY, THEN
FOLLOWED BY CLOUDS AND POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS FOR MOST OF WEDNESDAY.
THIS WEDNESDAY LOOKS A LOT LIKE LAST WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY TO FALL DURING THE DAY AS CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR
BEHIND THE FRONT AND COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN. FOR THIS REASON,
SHOWING A VERY SMALL DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE ON WEDNESDAY, WITH
AREAS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NAPLES LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THEIR
DAYTIME HIGHS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE.
The folks in NYC are in for quite a shock. It's 66 right now in Central Park. The forecast has changed from a mix of rain and snow for all of Wednesday with no accumulation to all snow Wednesday afternoon and night with "light" accumulations. Seems like it would be hard to get more than an inch or two on grassy surfaces with the ground this warm but it depends on snow rates and whether they get freezing rain Wednesday morning. That's what happened here in January, where a quarter inch of ice set us up for 3 inches of snow.
Despite some showers/rain tomorrow and Wednesday, a nice holiday week in store for West Palm Beach area...

GOOD NEWS!

In just 7 days...I will release my 2014 GOES East Hurricane Sector Animation!

I am rendering a test movie of it right now to ensure all the graphics and music are perfect.

At the end, I put up the actual numbers against the forecast numbers from several respected organizations.

It's a solid video with over 8,500 images manually retrieved from the GOES East archive site.
Re: The front passing through Florida and the rain.
I enjoy rain, but there's a point where it's no longer beneficial.
Citrus and other crops on tree/in ground get rot.
Heavy rain into a tourist area on a busy travel day effects the state economy.
Indianriverguy can expound on the environmental issue of too much rain into the aquifier.
Heavy rain for folks dealing with temporarilly flooded supermarket parking lots, and other spots, makes things difficult as they get ready for the holiday.
Too much at one time is overall not beneficial on 11/25-11/26 in CFL.

Nice weather for the Holiday....
Quoting 203. Jedkins01:



Yep after this it will dry out up there and here for a while, but after this we could use some drying, this has been down right nuts to see this amount of rain in November, normally the driest month of the year here and in most if not all of Florida.

At least you got 1.66, that's still a good amount!

Meanwhile, there is a really nasty looking cell heading this way with a lot of lightning flashes, even has a bow echo look to it, if the convection wasn't elevated this cell would have a warning probably. I wasn't expecting any activity with this much intensity and lightning tonight.

We can certainly use a couple of inches of rain in Orlando.
Quoting 205. boltdwright:



You're a little high on rainfall. According to KTLH radar most locations have only received STA of 3-5 inches.


Yep but I was comparing my gauge total to the estimates, I've had 4.67 in an area that has an estimate of about 3 inches. I would like to compare the official obs at Tallahassee as well, but for some reason its had some observation issues and failed to show rainfall totals during some periods where heavy rain fell at the site, so its observation of rainfall would be less than it actually had.
Need help. I used Tropical Tidbits for model runs. It's no longer on the web.

Anyone know if it's coming back OR what other good model sites are out there?
Quoting 211. CosmicEvents:

Re: The front passing through Florida and the rain.
I enjoy rain, but there's a point where it's no longer beneficial.
Citrus and other crops on tree/in ground get rot.
Heavy rain into a tourist area on a busy travel day effects the state economy.
Indianriverguy can expound on the environmental issue of too much rain into the aquifier.
Heavy rain for folks dealing with temporarilly flooded supermarket parking lots, and other spots, makes things difficult as they get ready for the holiday.
Too much at one time is overall not beneficial on 11/25-11/26 in CFL.
Good evening C.E..The way things are going , the Florida East Coast will get more rain , and the backward pattern being more the norm.
(bats eyelashes)

Hi Cosmic-
Quoting 215. rick7033:

Need help. I used Tropical Tidbits for model runs. It's no longer on the web.

Anyone know if it's coming back OR what other good model sites are out there?
Greetings Rick..He has been having trouble with the server..He is working on it...Here is a site with models...Link
Thanks, much appreciated. I will wait. It's by far the best out there.
Quoting 219. rick7033:

Thanks, much appreciated. I will wait. It's by far the best out there.
I posted a link on me previous post..Maybe you will give it a shot...Euro was messin up earlier..
Quoting 214. Jedkins01:



Yep but I was comparing my gauge total to the estimates, I've had 4.67 in an area that has an estimate of about 3 inches. I would like to compare the official obs at Tallahassee as well, but for some reason its had some observation issues and failed to show rainfall totals during some periods where heavy rain fell at the site, so its observation of rainfall would be less than it actually had.


That's true, KTLH has been suffering some malfunctions as of late. A great tool to view rainfall totals is available from water.gov and is called AHPS. A wonderful tool that is compiled from the river forecast centers of the National Weather Service.
A sticky cloudy day. 64/81 with the 70 degree isodrosotherm over me during the afternoon. Waiting for more rain!
line of demarcation between buoy 42360 N wind over 20 and 42001 with light SW wind.
FLZ076>078-250800-
/O.NEW.KKEY.CF.S.0005.141125T0000Z-141125T0800Z/
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
620 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE IN LOW-LYING AREAS TONIGHT...

* COASTAL FLOODING...HIGHER THAN PREDICTED TIDAL LEVELS WILL LEAD
TO MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
TONIGHT.

* TIMING...WATER LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8 TO 11 INCHES ABOVE PREDICTED
VALUES...ESPECIALLY DURING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT. THE TIMES
OF HIGH TIDE RANGE FROM AROUND 9 PM TO AROUND 1 AM TONIGHT ACROSS
THE KEYS. THE HIGHEST TIDES IN KEY WEST WILL BE AROUND 1040 PM
TONIGHT AND RESIDUAL WATER WILL SLOWLY DRAIN FROM ISLAND LOCATIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AFTER THE OCEAN TIDES RECEDE.

* IMPACTS...THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE MINOR FLOODING OF THE LOWEST
ELEVATION STREETS. SOME STORM DRAINS WILL OVERFLOW...AND SOME LOW-
LYING DOCKS AND SEAWALLS COULD BE OVER-TOPPED.
Quoting 190. Sfloridacat5:

CNN just showed the difference between the Euro and the GFS for the amount of snow this week.





and the difference was?
Quoting 215. rick7033:

Need help. I used Tropical Tidbits for model runs. It's no longer on the web.

Anyone know if it's coming back OR what other good model sites are out there?


I use Twisterdata.com, but mainly for severe weather.
Quoting 226. TimTheWxMan:



I use Twisterdata.com, but mainly for severe weather.


Seconded.

Tropically I actually normally go with Accuweather Pro because I like their vast array of model data. Levi's site updates faster, though; even the ECMWF does.

EDIT: Oh dear, yeah. How could I forget about this little gem? Here's a free alternative... with a GFS that goes out to 384 hours if you're into that sort of fantasy.

Link
Quoting 158. CycloneOz:



Here is your unsettled science rebuttal:

Global population of polar bears has increased by 2,650-5,700 since 2001

Your science is unsettled. Unsettling...isn't it? ;)
Indeed - what better source could their be than an adjunct professor whose expertise and research is the evolution of the domestic dog, and who receives a monthly stipend from the Heartland Institute. That'll show that dumb old Neapolitan person some real science!
Q tip-induced sneezes are SOOOO useful when you have a cold.

Take notes, guys.
Quoting 229. KoritheMan:

Q tip-induced sneezes are SOOOO useful when you have a cold.

Take notes, guys.
You're making me sick threw the screen!.
Quoting 227. KoritheMan:



Seconded.

Tropically I actually normally go with Accuweather Pro because I like their vast array of model data. Levi's site updates faster, though; even the ECMWF does.

EDIT: Oh dear, yeah. How could I forget about this little gem? Here's a free alternative... with a GFS that goes out to 384 hours if you're into that sort of fantasy.

Link


Is there a timeframe for when tropicaltidbits will be back up or are they not sure yet? Also the psu website you suggested's pretty good.
Anyone got a graphic on the difference between the GFS and Euro with snow totals?
Quoting 229. KoritheMan:

Q tip-induced sneezes are SOOOO useful when you have a cold.

Take notes, guys.


All i have to do is walk outside and look at the sun because it always makes me sneeze whenever i do that in the daytime.
To Weather Underground -
If I change a comment , I get this ................................
)?/@@ ) where a comma should be .

Why have you never solved this problem?

I mean NBC bought you out . and we still get the same gribberish if we change our comments.

This really stinks.
Quoting 230. washingtonian115:

You're making me sick threw the screen!.


Aww. Sorry hun. :(

Also, through*.

Never too sick to be a grammar nazi. ;)
Quoting 231. TimTheWxMan:



Is there a timeframe for when tropicaltidbits will be back up or are they not sure yet? Also the psu website you suggested's pretty good.


I dunno. I'm not Levi.

Quoting 233. TimTheWxMan:



All i have to do is walk outside and look at the sun because it always makes me sneeze whenever i do that in the daytime.
Yeah, I forget the exact terminology for that. Whatever it is though, I clearly don't have it or I'd be doing that.
Quoting 221. boltdwright:



That's true, KTLH has been suffering some malfunctions as of late. A great tool to view rainfall totals is available from water.gov and is called AHPS. A wonderful tool that is compiled from the river forecast centers of the National Weather Service.


It seems that the Tallahassee radar has always had underestimation for precip, although reflectivity seems to always work fine, and yes AHPS definitely is a good site for rainfall!

I'm sure in house products at the office phase out the underestimation issue, they have access to a lot more rainfall rate analysis products than we do and are much better.

We only get to see the original storm total precip that dates back to initial installation of the 88-D radars, as apposed to the better software and dual pole products available at the office now that make rainfall estimation from their view much better. The original 88-D estimation product definitely can miss the mark sometimes. Sometimes it does fine though, it depends on the event and radar site. Some radars and some atmospheric environments lead to significant overestimation as well.
Quoting 236. KoritheMan:



I dunno. I'm not Levi.

Yeah, I forget the exact terminology for that. Whatever it is though, I clearly don't have it or I'd be doing that.



It's called photoptarmosis aka photic sneeze reflex.
I like the new radar coloration!


Quoting 239. DonnieBwkGA:

I like the new radar coloration!


Yeah, it actually reminds me of the old TWC radar circa 2005. Back when it was actually good and about weather and um...
Quoting 229. KoritheMan:

Q tip-induced sneezes are SOOOO useful when you have a cold.

Take notes, guys.

Q-tips are pointless.
Quoting 232. mcluvincane:

Anyone got a graphic on the difference between the GFS and Euro with snow totals?


Guess not!

Quoting 238. TimTheWxMan:



It's called photoptarmosis aka photic sneeze reflex.
whatever
Quoting 213. HurrMichaelOrl:


We can certainly use a couple of inches of rain in Orlando.


You have a good shot at that tomorrow, the atmosphere will be near the highest tier available for moisture this time of year, and there will be plenty of lift along with a fairly slow progression of the system.

000
FXUS62 KTBW 242029
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
329 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY)...
SEA FOG REMAINS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTH AND
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS WARM HUMID AIR CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWARD
OVER THE COOL COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE ACROSS THE PENINSULA TUSDAY.
AREAS OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL DRIVE PW VALUES OVER 2
INCHES AND LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY. WITH SOME MARGINAL JET DYNAMICS SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP MAY PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
MILD TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.


PW's rarely get this high this time of year!

Quoting 241. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Q-tips are pointless.
ur pointless
Quoting 245. KoritheMan:


ur pointless


Your* You're

Weren't you just hailing yourself as a grammar nazi a few moments ago?

EDIT: *holds head down in shame for a failed comeback*
NAM 00z coming in. Let's see if it can find its brain.

Quoting 247. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Your*

Weren't you just hailing yourself as a grammar nazi a few moments ago?
You're*
Quoting 245. KoritheMan:


Needless to say hurricane season is over, and the mid latitudes have taken over in the gulf :)
Quoting 249. Drakoen:


You're*


Ahhh too anxious to post my post I spelled it wrong.

Quoting 247. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Your* You're

Weren't you just hailing yourself as a grammar nazi a few moments ago?

EDIT: *holds head down in shame for a failed comeback*
lol ur so dumb Cody <3
To Weather Underground -
I raised hell with my ISP tonight , my service has been perfect, since I called.
Quoting 213. HurrMichaelOrl:


We can certainly use a couple of inches of rain in Orlando.
Who or what is "we"? I was in the area last week and it looked like the grass and agriculture could use a bit of rain. An inch would suit "them". Anything more isn't needed by "them". The aquifier doesn't need more than that either. Incrementally more harm than good.
"Explosive Finding: Smaller Volcano Blasts Might Slow Global Warming"

Link
And the Ferguson announcement is coming out...
Quoting KoritheMan:
Q tip-induced sneezes are SOOOO useful when you have a cold.

Take notes, guys.


The Cure for the Hiccups

Gently tickle the soft palette on the roof of your mouth with a Q-tip for 10 seconds. (The soft palette is at that back of your mouth.)

How does it work? It causes a downward spasm that collides with the upward spasm of the hiccup.

IMPORTANT: Does not work on babies or drunks. Don't ask me why. Those are the same two outliers that were immune to the "Andromeda Strain."
I'll be back later on. I'm pretty sure you know what's going on in my area. The whole thing's stupid. Neither the protesters nor wilson nor brown were 100% in the right. However, in order not to take this blog off topic, it's best not to talk about it unless it's in my WU mail or i make a blog about it.
Quoting 258. CycloneOz:



The Cure for the Hiccups

Gently tickle the soft palette on the roof of your mouth with a Q-tip for 10 seconds. (The soft palette is at that back of your mouth.)

How does it work? It causes a downward spasm that collides with the upward spasm of the hiccup.

IMPORTANT: Does not work on babies or drunks. Don't ask me why. Those are the same two outliers that were immune to the "Andromeda Strain."


Interesting.. I will have to try that with my daughter as most things do not stop her hiccups.
Don't worry about me too much, i'm far enough away from the protests/riots.
Quoting 257. Dakster:

And the Ferguson announcement is coming out...

Officer Wilson will not be indicted, as expected.
Quoting Dakster:


Interesting.. I will have to try that with my daughter as most things do not stop her hiccups.


It works every time. You'll swear by it! :)

Don't have a Q-tip. Use the tip of your finger. Careful not to cause the gag reflex! :D

Quoting 262. TimTheWxMan:

Don't worry about me too much, i'm far enough away from the protests/riots.


Good to know...

Quoting 263. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Officer Wilson will not be indicted as expected.
This.
Quoting 263. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Officer Wilson will not be indicted as expected.


I hope so.
NAM 00z places the low over the NC OBX almost on the coast through 36 hr. Lot's of QPF, probably over done, across the Appalachians and interior mid Atlantic.
Ferguson's on Central, not Eastern Standard time.
Quoting 266. Drakoen:


This.



Mothers of Invention - Trouble Comin' Everyday

Link
Quoting 251. Jedkins01:



Needless to say hurricane season is over, and the mid latitudes have taken over in the gulf :)
What hurricane season?

-Florida residents since 2005
NO charges....
You people think a movement is coming , yes it is but it's the climate that is coming. not the color of anyone's skin.
NAM 00z says snow in the I-95 corridor into NYC...
Good luck with that NAM, lol.

Quoting 233. TimTheWxMan:



All i have to do is walk outside and look at the sun because it always makes me sneeze whenever i do that in the daytime.


Go to State College and that won't be a problem :-)
Listening to some of the protesters on various live streams makes me ashamed of the United States. To those watching outside of the states, I promise not all Americans are like this...
Quoting 282. georgevandenberghe:



Go to State College and that won't be a problem :-)


Come up to Anchorage... All I can say at the moment is, what sun? Granted in the summer you gotta pick somewhere else...
Quoting Dakster:
NO charges....
Let the shopping begin...
Quoting 282. georgevandenberghe:



Go to State College and that won't be a problem :-)


What do you mean by that, but it's an actual thing! It's called Photoptarmosis! Besides, you can't do anything about it. It just happens.
Quoting 284. Dakster:



Come up to Anchorage... All I can say at the moment is, what sun? Granted in the summer you gotta pick somewhere else...


Good luck trying to get me to move to anchorage. Winter weather makes me feel bummed out sometimes. Not quite seasonal affective disorder, but probably more than just a tinge of sadness on gloomy winter days.
Quoting DonnieBwkGA:
As I thought, the half inch contour runs right through my front yard. :-)
Quoting 282. georgevandenberghe:



Go to State College and that won't be a problem :-)


Oh I get it... state college must be up north where it's always dark in the winter. Well played george... well played.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Needless to say hurricane season is over, and the mid latitudes have taken over in the gulf :)
Still waiting for the alleged cold front to come through. 65 degrees at 9:00 at night with a northerly wind in November is kind of strange.
Ok, let's get the blog back on topic. I know, there's not that much to talk about considering tropicaltidbits is down.Message me on WU mail about ferguson instead. That way, this gets back on-topic. :)
Yes let's get back on topic. The 00z GFS will be coming out soon.
WuMails sent... (Sar and Tim)

Anyways - when is normal weather coming back to AK? We are getting a few days in a row of single digit morning temps, but then it seems like it is going to come back up to above freezing during the day. BTW - THAT SUCKS as it creates a lot of ice...
Quoting TimTheWxMan:


Oh I get it... state college must be up north where it's always dark in the winter. Well played george... well played.
It's up in PA but it has nothing on Cleveland. We used to go weeks without ever seeing the sun. The average number of actual sunny days in January is...one. Sometimes, the only way I knew it was daylight is because the streetlights turned off. The only place worse in winter in terms of sunlight is the Seattle area, but at least they don't get weekly blizzards.
At least we can say Cody's not one dimensional. Most people his age avoid politics like the plague. Bonus points to him.
Too many things on the 00z GFS that doesn't make any sense: QPF, Jet stream, 500mb vort. Will wait for the rest of the guidance.
Quoting 300. Grothar:




I'm dreaming of a white..... Thanksgiving?
Quoting 297. sar2401:

It's up in PA but it has nothing on Cleveland. We used to go weeks without ever seeing the sun. The average number of actual sunny days in January is...one. Sometimes, the only way I knew it was daylight is because the streetlights turned off. The only place worse in winter in terms of sunlight is the Seattle area, but at least they don't get weekly blizzards.


Oh, THAT state college! You made it sound like you were talking about a state college up north. D'oh!
http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn -politics-bias-climate-change-20141124-story.html

No surprise here.
Quoting HiDesertRat:
http://www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci- sn -politics-bias-climate-change-20141124-story.html

No surprise here.
This link to the story will work. You have to use the link box to set up a link. A copy and paste of a link will fail every time due to the high tech software here.
Quoting 306. sar2401:

This link to the story will work. You have to use the link box to set up a link. A copy and paste of a link will fail every time due to the high tech software here.


Thanks SAR for parsing the link.

No matter what happens if you are a denier you are a denier.
Quoting 308. ncstorm:



I can only hope that you read the grand jury testimony before making those statements. I just read Officer Wilson's and I would like to read the others, before making any definitive statements as to whether he should have been charged or not. Justice isn't "Charge the Officer". Justice is getting to the truth and making the correct decision based on the truth.

Quoting Dakster:


I can only hope that you read the grand jury testimony before making those statements. I just read Officer Wilson's and I would like to read the others, before making any definitive statements as to whether he should have been charged or not. Justice isn't "Charge the Officer". Justice is getting to the truth and making the correct decision based on the truth.

That would keep her busy for a while. Last I heard, including depositions, physical evidence, and all the forensics, it was over 1500 pages.

Just to get a weather tidbit in here, it's still 60 degrees at midnight and that's after the cold front moved through. This low is going to have to round up a lot of cold air if it's going to live up to the forecasts.
Quoting 310. sar2401:

That would keep her busy for a while. Last I heard, including depositions, physical evidence, and all the forensics, it was over 1500 pages.

Just to get a weather tidbit in here, it's still 60 degrees at midnight and that's after the cold front moved through. This low is going to have to round up a lot of cold air if it's going to live up to the forecasts.


24F here tonight. It's only 9:30pm here. We may hit teens by morning. The coldest part of the day is around 8am here. Probably will be chipping 1/2" thick ice off the windshield in the morning too... At least I have a blow torch if needed.
Quoting Dakster:


Thanks SAR for parsing the link.

No matter what happens if you are a denier you are a denier.
Yep, and I think the idea that people just don't understand science and if we explain it to them real slow it will work has been wrong since abut 1990. Culture, background, and political leanings have more to with a person's attitude, whether it's the "libtards" on the left or the "teabaggers" on the right. It's getting to be a line in the sand kind of thing for lots of people.
Quoting Dakster:


24F here tonight. It's only 9:30pm here. We may hit teens by morning. The coldest part of the day is around 8am here. Probably will be chipping 1/2" thick ice off the windshield in the morning too... At least I have a blow torch if needed.
LOL. You're not impressing me yet. We had a low of 17 with last polar vortex and four nights below freezing. You should have seen the ice on my windshield...in Alabama...in the middle of November. Maybe I'll move to Alaska to warm up. :-)
Where are the mods.
Quoting Drakoen:
Where are the mods.
What I want know is if you're still just as bullish on Wednesday's storm? It's starting to look like a weaker system than I thought it would be.
316. vis0
SAMPLE DATES DO NOT MATCH figured by the time this is read and link is visited all models will be up to date

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=moNr8e_34sU
org dimension:: 1204x756 
get these types here (by clicking model type one can get as much as 15 presentation styles, no less than 5 per model, ukmet only 48hrs)
 Apology as to last 4 models posted i forgot to leave model pg link as these youtube vids is no match for actual model pg. display  speed & sharpness.

Quoting 315. sar2401:

What I want know is if you're still just as bullish on Wednesday's storm? It's starting to look like a weaker system than I thought it would be.
Looking at the latest 00z models my forecast still stands except as the system gets closer to Long Island it may just track inside the benchmark instead of to the west of it. I, unfortunately, think it's still 50/50 on significant snowfall for the DC-PHIL-NYC connection. One of the concerns is how the models are dealing with the boundary layer temperatures. The WPC mentioned the NAM show fast flow coming in from the east of the Atlantic as the system traverses up the eastern seaboard. This could causing mixing causing temperatures to be higher near the coastal regions than what is actually being modeled. I still think the interior regions generally along the I-81 interstate and then between I-81 and 95 as you get up into New England are on track for the snow axis of this storm. Ground temperatures for many people will be in the mid to upper thirties with the exception of the deep interior and highly elevated areas. We'll see if wet-bulb cooling will allow for colder surface temperatures as heavy precipitation falls to the surface.
318. vis0
Is it me or are many weather sites that deliver raw data having server issues since a week ago? All of mt SAT imagery i get NOT of TROPICAL weather interest are not giving all 24 hr imagery, 1 hr here 2 hrs there where no image are downloaded.3 education sites 5 Official Origin sites (NOAAA / NWS / NAVY etc) are being affected.

Woke up in the chair again. Looks like it actually might rain in SW Florida. Low clouds headed due north. I worked all weekend so I don't need caffeine or an alarm clock. Reminds me of when my French Canadian friend got his brand new Corvette. He said," I have zee keys, now I need zee tick'et."
Quoting 313. sar2401:

LOL. You're not impressing me yet. We had a low of 17 with last polar vortex and four nights below freezing. You should have seen the ice on my windshield...in Alabama...in the middle of November. Maybe I'll move to Alaska to warm up. :-)

If you put a blanket over the front and rear windshields as you call then then the ice will not be on the be on the glass. Even newspaper sheets will do the job just a well but tends to blow off if its windy.
For all on the cold side of weather: This video might warm you up ...


Published Nov 24: New aerial footage from the Holuhraun volcanic eruption in Iceland. Footage from the RÚV TV station.
Lots of posts got yanked last night I see!
Not me for a change.
No snow in todays discussion. Yesterdays was just wishful thinking on behalf of our local nws I guess.
326. beell
Quoting 325. PensacolaDoug:

Lots of posts got yanked last night I see!
Not me for a change.
No snow in todays discussion. Yesterdays was just wishful thinking on behalf of our local nws I guess.


But they left this one. Swoosh! Right over their heads, lol!

Quoting 286. sar2401:

Let the shopping begin...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Your* You're

Weren't you just hailing yourself as a grammar nazi a few moments ago?

EDIT: *holds head down in shame for a failed comeback*


wrecked.
Quoting beell:


But they left this one. Swoosh! Right over their heads, lol!

And it looked like there was quite a bit of shopping...
Quoting PlazaRed:

If you put a blanket over the front and rear windshields as you call then then the ice will not be on the be on the glass. Even newspaper sheets will do the job just a well but tends to blow off if its windy.
I've used that trick before. I just didn't expect the high dewpoint with such a low temperature. Just dew can make a lot of ice on a windshield.
Well, Drak, looks like this storm system is following your prediction. NYC just issued a winter storm watch for tonight through Wednesday. We've gone from rain to to snow with no accumulation to 3-5" with additional "light" accumulations tomorrow night...and all in 24 hours. These dynamic storms systems just ain't easy to forecast. :-)
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Lots of posts got yanked last night I see!
Not me for a change.
No snow in todays discussion. Yesterdays was just wishful thinking on behalf of our local nws I guess.
Yes, it was. The Mobile office was way overthinking what's just going to be rain. As I posted yesterday, it looked like at least one forecaster really, really, wanted to see some snowflakes. :-)
Quoting 310. sar2401:

That would keep her busy for a while. Last I heard, including depositions, physical evidence, and all the forensics, it was over 1500 pages.

Just to get a weather tidbit in here, it's still 60 degrees at midnight and that's after the cold front moved through. This low is going to have to round up a lot of cold air if it's going to live up to the forecasts.


59 degrees in College Park at 6AM this morning. Someone sneaked downstairs and turned on the AC last night when it was 66 outside and warm in the house. Caught it before I retired.

But a cold rest of the week is in the pipeline for us.
Quoting 290. TimTheWxMan:



Oh I get it... state college must be up north where it's always dark in the winter. Well played george... well played.


State College is notably cloudy in the winter half of the year though it's actually not as bad as points further north and west. However I remember Dr Richard Anthes lecturing to a class describing the different types of clouds and the way they formed and stating "By the way all of these happen in State College".

He left for NCAR three years later. He was very very good.. PSU's loss!
maybe a white Thanksgiving for new haven,conn this year
Quoting 336. hurricanes2018:


Where is the TM(arket)C finding these snow totals from?.
A big storm is heading up I-4 with tremendous lightning.


heavy rain with thunder & lightning continues. checked the local pier cam surfers are out including a stand up surfer (lightning pole) e cen florida
southern New Haven Severe Watches & Warnings NOAA Weather Radio
Winter Storm Watch
Statement as of 4:13 AM EST on November 25, 2014
...Winter Storm Watch in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning...

The National Weather Service in New York has issued a Winter Storm Watch...which is in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning.

* Locations...New York City...northern Nassau County...southern Westchester County...western coastal Connecticut....and portions of northeast New Jersey.

* Hazard types...heavy snow.

* Accumulations...snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches.

* Timing...a mixture of rain and snow Wednesday morning should change to all snow by late afternoon.

* Impacts...the snowfall will significantly impact Holiday travel...making driving dangerous at times.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Watch means there is a potential for significant snow...sleet...or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.
Quoting 339. islander101010:

heavy rain with thunder & lightning continues. checked the local pier cam surfers are out including a stand up surfer (lightning pole) e cen florida


Some areas have already gotten 3" this morning. HPC says 4.5" today & tomorrow but I suspect 5" to 7" of rain is a solid bet in some areas where training occurs today across the I-4 Corridor from Tampa to Daytona Beach.
wind is howling lightning cracking and its raining hard.
Quoting 342. islander101010:

wind is howling lightning cracking and its raining hard.


Just issued.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
629 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MELBOURNE HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...

NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...TITUSVILLE AIRPORT...TITUSVILLE...
SHARPES...SCOTTSMOOR...PORT SAINT JOHN...PLAYALINDA BEACH...
MIMS...LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP...HAULOVER CANAL...COCOA...

SOUTHEASTERN ORANGE COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEDGEFIELD...CHRISTMAS...

OSCEOLA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...SAINT CLOUD...NARCOOSSEE...LAKE
KISSIMMEE...HOLOPAW...

SOUTHEASTERN VOLUSIA COUNTY IN FLORIDA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF OAK HILL...

* UNTIL 800 AM EST.

* AT 626 AM EST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL OF BETWEEN ONE AND A LITTLE OVER TWO INCHES HAS ALREADY
FALLEN IN MANY LOCATIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN TAPERS OFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD ADVISORY MEANS HEAVY RAINFALL IS CAUSING OR IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER IN URBAN AREAS AND ELEVATE RIVER OR STREAM
FLOWS. MINOR FLOODING MAY CAUSE TEMPORARY LANE OR ROAD CLOSURES...
BUT THE THREAT OF WATER ENTERING HOMES AND BUSINESSES IS LOW.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE TEMPORARY FLOODING
OF URBAN AREAS...SUCH AS HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND INTERSECTIONS AS
WELL AS POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD DEACTIVATE CRUISE CONTROL AND SLOW DOWN IN HEAVY
RAINFALL TO REDUCE THE RISK OF HYDROPLANING. LEAVE SAFE DISTANCE
BETWEEN OTHER VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE
THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO
ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. STATE LAW REQUIRES HEADLIGHTS TO BE
TURNED ON WHEN WINDSHIELD WIPERS ARE IN USE.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


7 day forecast for Tampa Bay.
Precipitation estimates over the past 7 days.

3 days in a row of heavy rain in areas of the Panhandle and it's still raining.
Sky looks angry across Orlando this morning.

I don't believe D.C will see any accumulating snow.Some wet flakes just like the 2013 March 6 fail storm with rain mixing.That's about it.
C FL is about to get some of the heaviest rains its seen all year today. Incredibly high PWAT's of 2.2" to 2.3" is surging into C FL from the SE Gulf right now.



Quoting 344. tampabaymatt:



7 day forecast for Tampa Bay.


Send it down here Matt. Yesterday was a brutally hot day in the Miami area, we broke record for high!
Quoting 349. washingtonian115:

I don't believe D.C will see any accumulating snow.Some wet flakes just like the 2013 March 6 fail storm with rain mixing.That's about it.
no wash you going to get snow
Quoting 351. capeflorida:



Send it down here Matt. Yesterday was a brutally hot day in the Miami area, we broke record for high!


Not much rain at all for me today yet, the heavy rain has stayed south of my house. I took about 1-2 inches of water out of my pool last night in preparation for this, so hopefully I get some of the heavy storms. I'm looking forward to this mess heading NE and going back to typical FL November weather.
Rotation developing west of Fort Meade. Could be a tornado in the making.

A cold front is expected to stall just off the East Coast late Tuesday. Low pressure will spin up along the tail end of the front over the Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. That low will quickly cross Florida Tuesday evening and then intensify as it moves north-northeastward Tuesday night into Wednesday, most likely staying just off the Eastern Seaboard. This is a classic track for a significant East Coast storm. However, as is often the case, key questions remain about the exact outcome from this storm system -- and the small details could make a big difference for your travel plans, especially if you will be driving in the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast on Wednesday or Wednesday night. The National Weather Service has issued winter storm watches and warning for more than 20 million people in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. In this case, the watches mean significant snow accumulations are possible within the next 48 hours.
Rotation continuing to develop and this cell appears to be heading for Disney. I suspect a Tornado Warning is imminent now.

Yikes!!!


Quoting 338. StormTrackerScott:

A big storm is heading up I-4 with tremendous lightning.





NWS says some places could end up getting 3- 4 inches before all is said and done and 1-2 for almost everyone seems likely, and that the 1-4 corridor will be likely the the area of heaviest precip from the Tampa bay area up through Orlando. The potent shortwave is just starting to dig into eastern Texas. Once it makes it to Louisiana later today cyclogenesis will occur in the east gulf helping to pool even more moisture and provide lift for heavy rain. PW's will get to and possibly exceed 2 inches which is near the 99th percentile of moisture for this time of year.

This much rain in November will certainly be appreciated!

My rain gauge is coming in near 6 inches now. I haven't taken a measurement yet but I measured 4.67 in the gauge since Saturday around 5 PM and we had at least 1.25 here since then. I'm expecting my storm total to exceed 6 inches when I take the measurement tonight before I head home to Tampa Bay for Thanksgiving break!

This is the driest month of the year here on average, so this has been one heck of a rain event, and much needed as we were very dry going into this.
Man I wasn't expecting so much lightning last night, it would have been just ordinary as far as thunderstorms go if it was August sea breeze thunderstorms, but for cold frontal convection in November, that was one heck of light show last night. It was night going to bed with all the lightning, that and we had over inch yet again to add to our already huge totals.
Quoting 364. Jedkins01:



NWS says some places could end up getting over 4 inches before all is said and done, and that the 1-4 corridor will be likely the the area of heaviest precip from the Tampa bay area up through Orlando. The potent shortwave is just starting to dig into eastern Texas. Once it makes it to Louisiana later today cyclogenesis will occur in the east gulf helping to pool even more moisture and provide lift for heavy rain. PW's will get to and possibly exceed 2 inches which is near the 99th percentile of moisture for this time of year.

This much rain in November will certainly be appreciated!

My rain gauge is coming in near 6 inches now. I haven't taken a measurement yet but I measured 4.67 in the gauge since Saturday and we had at least 1.25 here since then. I'm expecting my storm total to exceed 6 inches when I take the measurement tonight before I head home to Tampa Bay for Thanksgiving break!

This is the driest month of the year here on average, so this has been one heck of a rain event, and much needed as we were very dry going into this.


By the looks of what is coming I suspect some 7" totals seem to be a good bet.

Quoting 365. Jedkins01:

Man I wasn't expecting so much lightning last night, it would have been just ordinary as far as thunderstorms go if it was August sea breeze thunderstorms, but for cold frontal convection in November, that was one heck of light show last night. It was night going to bed with all the lightning, that and we had over inch yet again to add to our already huge totals.


Thunder woke me up at 2:30am this morning as storms rolled past me to my east.
Winter Storm Watch for areas to the NW of Washington DC.
this morning it seems as though its some of the rainiest weather all year over here south of tampa/riverview. last night the local mets stated the rain wouldn't be until the afternoon and the heaviest rain after 4pm.
Damn Ric, we were wrong:(
Quoting 370. intampa:

this morning it seems as though its some of the rainiest weather all year over here south of tampa/riverview. last night the local mets stated the rain wouldn't be until the afternoon and the heaviest rain after 4pm.


This storm heading for Orlando is one of the biggest I've seen all year. I mean its massive.with spots of rotation ongoing on the southern end of this storm.

Quoting 352. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

no wash you going to get snow
People underestimate the D.C heat dome which is known to be 4.5 degrees warmer than other areas.
Quoting 373. washingtonian115:

People underestimate the D.C heat dome which is known to be 4.5 degrees warmer than other areas.
yes I know but I was to the point when I placed the order said snow for wash for thanksgiving nothing more
Quoting 370. intampa:

this morning it seems as though its some of the rainiest weather all year over here south of tampa/riverview. last night the local mets stated the rain wouldn't be until the afternoon and the heaviest rain after 4pm.


I think you forgot about September when the Tampa bay area had anywhere from 15 to 20 inches of rain for the month depending on location, still though, this will be amazing for November.
Quoting 350. StormTrackerScott:

C FL is about to get some of the heaviest rains its seen all year today. Incredibly high PWAT's of 2.2" to 2.3" is surging into C FL from the SE Gulf right now.






That will be right near record high levels for this time of year:




TPA sounding coming in very impressive for this time of year this morning with a PW of 2.15 and CAPE of 2700, and looks like it could even support supercells, a supercell number of 6.1 is decent.



It will be interesting to see if the evening sounding breaks the PW record or if it gets close, the record is around 2.3.
It'll be interesting to see how much snow the big cities get out of this. Lot more uncertainty than usual. My numbers right now would be something like this.

DC- Little to no accumulation
Baltimore- A slushy inch or so possible
Philly- 1-3" possible
NYC- 3-6" possible, probably the highest total of the big cities
Boston- 2-3" possible

Much higher amounts possible inland of course.
Quoting 376. Jedkins01:



That will be right near record high levels for this time of year:




TPA sounding coming in very impressive for this time of year this morning with a PW of 2.15 and CAPE of 2700, and looks like it could even some support for supercells, a supercell number of 6.1 is pretty high.



It will be interesting to see if the evening sounding breaks the PW record or if it gets close, the record is around 2.3.


TWC says the environment supports supercells today across C FL from Tampa to Orlando.
Quoting Jedkins01:


I think you forgot about September when the Tampa bay area had anywhere from 15 to 20 inches of rain for the month depending on location, still though, this will be amazing for November.


September was a very wet month across the majority of Florida.
Quoting 375. Jedkins01:



I think you forgot about September when the Tampa bay area had anywhere from 15 to 20 inches of rain for the month depending on location, still though, this will be amazing for November.


Agree. It was really wet in September and it is going to be really wet over the next 24 hours. Getting this type of widespread rain event in November really helps us as we head in the dry season.
Lots of people along the east coast getting wet:

Quoting 377. MAweatherboy1:

It'll be interesting to see how much snow the big cities get out of this. Lot more uncertainty than usual. My numbers right now would be something like this.

DC- Little to no accumulation
Baltimore- A slushy inch or so possible
Philly- 1-3" possible
NYC- 3-6" possible, probably the highest total of the big cities
Boston- 2-3" possible

Much higher amounts possible inland of course.
I expect a slushy coat on the ground not even mounting to a inch.If this storm would have come two weeks earlier or even one week earlier where we had cold in place then we could have had a decent snow storm.
Quoting 380. luvtogolf:



Agree. It was really wet in September and it is going to be really wet over the next 24 hours. Getting this type of widespread rain event in November really helps us as we head in the dry season.


No Dry Season this year as El-Nino is beginning to come on strong now.




Quoting 379. Sfloridacat5:



September was a very wet month across the majority of Florida.



Yeah for sure, I just mentioned Tampa Bay area because that poster was from that region.
We'll see if this materalizes, kind of a bust last weekend. It appears rainy the next day or two then it dries out for a nice holiday weekend!

Quoting 384. Jedkins01:



Yeah for sure, I just mentioned Tampa Bay area because that poster was from that region.


If we get the type of rain I think we might get here in the Orlando area then we could end up with 6" to 9" of rain for the month of November when average is 2.5"
Quoting 382. washingtonian115:

I expect a slushy coat on the ground not even mounting to a inch.If this storm would have come two weeks earlier or even one week earlier where we had cold in place then we could have had a decent snow storm.

Yeah, this is a real interesting setup. Two months from now in January there'd be no question, the whole East Coast would be getting a thick blanket of snow. However, what we've got is the very warm, near record warm air from yesterday being pushed out and replaced with cool, but not cold/Arctic air. Like you said, if we had an Arctic air mass moving in like we had a week or two ago, we still would've had a good shot at snow all the way to the coast despite climatology arguing otherwise.

These patterns tend to repeat themselves though. The Lower 48 should warm up nicely for the first half of December, but beyond that, if this pattern reestablishes itself, the East Coast will see plenty of snow this winter.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


By the looks of what is coming I suspect some 7" totals seem to be a good bet.



The NWS is forecasting 1-3" and local accumulations up to 4" possible. Doesnt say anything about 5, 6 or 7". Do you read the official forecasts or do you just go 'out on a limb'?



Also, you said a 'tornado could he heading towards disney'- Rotation continuing to develop and this cell appears to be heading for Disney. I suspect a Tornado Warning is imminent now. Also incorrect, all thats mentioned is a special weather statement. Not even a severe thunderstorm warning, or a tornado watch for the area.

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN POLK COUNTY...

AT 857 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
THUNDERSTORM LOCATED NEAR CRYSTAL LAKE...OR NEAR LAKELAND...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT GIBSONIA...
LAKELAND...INWOOD AND CRYSTAL LAKE...THROUGH 945 AM EST.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 4 BETWEEN EXITS 28 AND 58.

GUSTY WINDS 35 TO 45 MPH WILL OCCUR ALONG WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES. FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. TO BE SAFE GO
INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE...FIND A LOW SPOT...AND STAY
AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN.
ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.
It appears some training is trying to set up in north Pinellas into south Tampa. Still barely a drop of rain yet at my location in NW Hillsborough.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


No Dry Season this year as El-Nino is beginning to come on strong now.






Most of Florida is actually having a normal to drier than normal "dry season," including Orlando which had a very dry October.

Hopefully this rain events will give us a little surplus for Oct-Nov.









Quoting 388. MAweatherboy1:


Yeah, this is a real interesting setup. Two months from now in January there'd be no question, the whole East Coast would be getting a thick blanket of snow. However, what we've got is the very warm, near record warm air from yesterday being pushed out and replaced with cool, but not cold/Arctic air. Like you said, if we had an Arctic air mass moving in like we had a week or two ago, we still would've had a good shot at snow all the way to the coast despite climatology arguing otherwise.

These patterns tend to repeat themselves though. The Lower 48 should warm up nicely for the first half of December, but beyond that, if this pattern reestablishes itself, the East Coast will see plenty of snow this winter.
Yes CWG sees a big cool down coming the second week of December after a brief warm period and with the NAO going negative we could be rejoicing in two weeks.So fear not fellow snow lovers we still have 3 to 3 and half months left!.
Quoting 382. washingtonian115:

I expect a slushy coat on the ground not even mounting to a inch.If this storm would have come two weeks earlier or even one week earlier where we had cold in place then we could have had a decent snow storm.
yeah you are under lowest alert level with greatest chance to see a total of 5 cm 2.5 inches



TOP LEFT 5CM
TOP RIGHT 15CM
BOTTOM LEFT 30 CM
BOTTOM RIGHT ALERT LEVEL


YELLOW LOWEST ALERT
RED HIGHEST ALERT

Warning: The information on WeatherAlert-Forecast is not guaranteed to be up-to-date and is prone to large errors. Never use for important decision making. Please always refer to Environment Canada's public forecasts and warnings. UQAM decline any responsibility for the usage of these data.
Quoting 390. tampabaymatt:

It appears some training is trying to set up in north Pinellas into south Tampa. Still barely a drop of rain yet at my location in NW Hillsborough.


Yea, a band is trying to set up in Northern Pinellas. Let's see if it really fills in.
Quoting 392. washingtonian115:

Yes CWG sees a big cool down coming the second week of December after a brief warm period and with the NAO going negative we could be rejoicing in two weeks.So fear not fellow snow lovers we still have 3 to 3 and half months left!.

I would love it if we ended up with a white Christmas.
Heavy rain heading towards Orlando. I'm hoping we see some of that down here later this afternoon.
Quoting luvtogolf:


Yea, a band is trying to set up in Northern Pinellas. Let's see if it really fills in.


The rain seems to be firing off on the east side of the bay.
There will be big difference in rain totals from the west side to the east side of the bay.
Most of Florida is actually having a normal to drier than normal "dry season," including Orlando which had a very dry October.

Hopefully this rain events will give us a little surplus for Oct-Nov.



sf.....in a weak el nino...which every model except the cfsv2 (and michael ventrice has explained that the cfsv2 is in error because it is biased towards the kelvin wave) depicts a weak el nino.....some region of florida...whether north....central..or south....has had below normal to near normal rainfall......if el nino pans out...which i think it will.....hopefully your area...won't be the below average one
345. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
1:07 PM GMT on November 25, 2014



so the graph in keeps post still shows the low remaining off the east coast....where's drak......he took some serious heat by a few but stood firm......drak...how old are you bubba?.....
Watching the rain out in the GOM that building.
Eventually, this rain will get pushed down across the southern half of the state.


I've mentioned this before, but it seems like S.W. Florida and S.E. Florida always get their rain late in the day and at night from these frontal systems.
In north Florida and central Florida, the rain almost always starts during the morning or early afternoon.
It's just weird how it almost always happens this way.
Strong storm rolling through Orlando area right now. Nothing tornadic about it, no mention of rotation in any statement issued. I bet I-4 is a parking lot right about now! Glad i dont have to put up with that.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
927 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

FLZ052-251445-
POLK-
927 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTH CENTRAL
POLK COUNTY FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS VALID
UNTIL 945 AM EST...

AT 927 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED NEAR DAVENPORT...OR NEAR HAINES CITY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH WILL AFFECT RURAL NORTHERN POLK COUNTY.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 4 BETWEEN EXITS 48 AND 58.

GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WHICH CAN CAUSE UNSECURED
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND...SNAP TREE LIMBS AND CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.
WHEN DRIVING THROUGH HEAVY RAIN...SLOW DOWN. ALWAYS LEAVE A SAFE
DISTANCE BETWEEN YOU AND OTHER VEHICLES.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 408. Sfloridacat5:

Watching the rain out in the GOM that building.
Eventually, this rain will get pushed down across the southern half of the state.


I've mentioned this before, but it seems like S.W. Florida and S.E. Florida always get their rain late in the day and at night from these frontal systems.
In north Florida and central Florida, the rain almost always starts during the morning or early afternoon.
It's just weird how it almost always happens this way.


Is the frontal boundary to supposed to get to your area later today? I thought it was going to stall over us all day.
Quoting 313. sar2401:

LOL. You're not impressing me yet. We had a low of 17 with last polar vortex and four nights below freezing. You should have seen the ice on my windshield...in Alabama...in the middle of November. Maybe I'll move to Alaska to warm up. :-)


Just read the morning paper. Apparently the ski resorts are having to delay their normally openings because, well, there is no snow.
Well it won't be dependent on lack of moisture with this system. Geesshh, it has been pouring all night here in SC. I think we have to have close to 5" of rain since the weekend.

Someone in the interior is going to get big totals. Hopefully no icing issues for anyone.

Quoting 377. MAweatherboy1:

It'll be interesting to see how much snow the big cities get out of this. Lot more uncertainty than usual. My numbers right now would be something like this.

DC- Little to no accumulation
Baltimore- A slushy inch or so possible
Philly- 1-3" possible
NYC- 3-6" possible, probably the highest total of the big cities
Boston- 2-3" possible

Much higher amounts possible inland of course.
415. vis0
At times i read again the good blogs in case i missed something of interest.     i'm on 49k so its a bit saaah-low.   Comments on pg7 of this blog caught my eye and my reply is in the end weather related as if one wants today's youth to protest the damages of not caring for nature then i add the following. The image disappears after its not visited over a month or two due to the fact its on the free version of postimg which has  limitations.