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Weather radios now required for Indiana mobile homes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:36 PM GMT on April 27, 2007

Mobile homes sold in the state of Indiana after June 30 this year must come equipped with a weather radio capable of alerting residents of an approaching tornado, thanks to a law signed by Indiana governor Mitch Daniels this week. The legislation, dubbed "C.J.'s Law", was named after 2-year old C.J. Martin, who died in a F3 tornado that killed 25 people in southwestern Indiana on November 6, 2005. Twenty of the victims lived in the Eastbrook Mobile Home Park in Evansville. The storm hit at 2am, when many residents were asleep and didn't hear the tornado sirens. C.J.'s mother, Kathryn Martin, pushed lawmakers to adopt the bill, pointing out that weather radios with a tone alert system could have saved many lives in the mobile home park.

This type of law makes great sense for mobile homes sold in tornado alley--think of it as a companion to your smoke detector in the house. Mobile home residents make up just 7% of the U.S. population, but account for 40% of the deaths in tornadoes. However, there are a number of issues that may make the law ineffective. Firstly, what type of weather radio will be purchased? There are many poor quality units out there, prone to radio interference, and difficult to program (weather radios require the user to input a special SAME code, needed to issue tone alerts when a tornado warning is issued). Secondly, the NWS sends out weekly or monthly test alerts on weather radio--how many mobile home owners will simply turn off their weather radios because they are sick of hearing the regular tests? Or turn them off after a few false alarms wake them up in the middle of the night for tornadoes that appear on Doppler radar, but never touch down? Thirdly, once the residents of a mobile home park are awakened by an alert, where do they go? Indiana, like most states, has no law requiring mobile home parks to have a tornado shelter. However, there is now Federal money available for mobile home parks to construct tornado shelters, so the number of parks with shelters may increase in coming years. In summary, the law has the potential to save lives--but only if it is properly enacted.


Figure 1. Damage to C.J. Martin's mobile home park near Evansville, Indiana due to the November 6, 2005 tornado. Image credit: Paducah, KY NWS.

Jeff Masters
Indiana/Kentucky Tornado - Ellis Race Track Backside 3
Indiana/Kentucky Tornado - Ellis Race Track Backside 3
A close-up of the damage to the apartments, horse stalls, and other objects. People cleaning up debris in photo.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Very interesting and a good idea. I feel better having mine. Not that you should totally rely on it but.... in the middle of night I'm hoping it will blast me if needed!
Nice report. Thank you Indiana for paving the way. I soon hope to see all states in the alley adopt this measure. And if opponents of this plan squabble about prices, then they desrve to have their insurance premiums skyrocket.
A last try on the surface map
That is excellent news - what better legislation could be passed short of requiring ALL households to have one.
I guess the site was updating while I was trying to load. Big high all the way across the ATL, much like 2004 set up.

Also, the 8:05 discussion referes to a 1008 mb low over N Colombia near 10N94W. I guess that should read 74W.

Perhaps the low is responsible for the showers in the S Caribbean this morning
many mobile home owners will simply turn off their weather radios because they are sick of hearing the regular tests?

answer: those that are running for the darwin award
Very interesting and a good idea.This will really help!!
I have an older NOAA radio and turned the alarm function off since it would go off for all sorts of warnings, most of which were not in my immediate area. Can you select what type of warning on the newer radios?
on the newer radios u can only program it to your specific area with SAME
The blob is getting a little better organized today...even got a mention from the NHC in the discussion.
TO Chessrascal

what is "SAME"?
lol<>img
the infared and quickscat for that blob in the SW Carribean
SAME i forget what it stands for but it is where u can program the alarm to only go off for your specific county insted of the whole broadcast area
hope that helps some
Posted By: chessrascal at 2:02 PM GMT on April 27, 2007.

on the newer radios u can only program it to your specific area with SAME

Yes you can and I think there is a feature that allows you to tone down the testing - ours here only lights up during the tests, it doesn't sound off.

the winds are picking up on the Quickscat but i still dont see a circulation
u can turn it on Tone Voice or Lights
We can refer to it as Blob 01L

:)
the winds are picking up on the Quickscat but i still dont see a circulation

It has a nice round shape though...
i have mine on Voice except for the day of the test.
map

PS:This map does not update it self!!
Thank you Dr Masters. I would like to see it manditory for everyone living in storm prone areas to own one and have it part of your household insurance policy to have it. Too many lives are being lost because of little or no warning of impending and potentially dangerous weather. Its better to suffer through a false alarm than it is to lose a loved one. I would also like to see all churches, and public buildings have one as well. When new public facilities are being built, they should have some kind of shelter included in their plans especially in high danger zones.

The object of alert radios is to save lives, lets make sure we have a place of shelter to go to after the warning. Trailer parks are not set up as yet but that should be a priority of the owner of these parks to make sure there is a place of safety since living in trailers is becoming more and more common now especially in areas hit by Katrina.

If federal money is available, then by all means, do it and do it soon...Saving lives is the biggest priority one should consider.
Heres the infrared loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

You can see the northern clouds are starting to get sheared from W to E.
we will have to just wait and see if it can pull itself together but it does look a lot better than it did last evening then it was looking kind of sickly. :)
Link

Heres the infrared loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

You can see the northern clouds are starting to get sheared from W to E.


heres a link
map

Shear is only 20-25K,thats not high!!
i agree it is definetly getting a lot of shear

i doubt it will make it but it is still fun to watch
Actually, 25-30 knots of shear IS high. Too high for development of that blob. It's still just a sustained region of vertical motion, which the waters near Panama are known for generating. Only 1 out of every 20 of those actually develop, and somehow I don't think one of those is this one.
Your right, it 25 knots shear (which is already high), but its drifting closer to the 35 knots area.
SSTs are some what favorable....Link
Yes Levi,we are just blob watching...LOL
Lol...yes I know. I do that a lot too :) Just don't let the so called "blob" start controlling your minds.......LOL. I'm kidding
If only the blob could cross thru the Panama canal, then it would have a chance.
lol the blob is firing back up and it looks gooid
That's true RL3AO it would have better chances in the Pacific. However when the waters near Panama (I forget the name of that bay) generate an area of convection it usually likes to hold on to its property lol.
Just don't let the so called "blob" start controlling your minds.......LOL. I'm kidding

Jeez,and it's only April....LOL
Jeez,and it's only April....LOL

That's exactly my point! LOL
Drakoen that blob ever looked good before now...LOL
Go west blob not north. You have a no shear zone 200 miles west!
hmm. looks like the low is around columbia is it on or of shore?
oh yea and the shear needs to come down to at least 5-10 mph and that being extremely opimistic.
...A 1008 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N94W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 73W-80W.
ALSO...CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA HAS AREAS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING W WITH THE TRADEWINDS.
chessrascal

I live in Hillsborough County, FL and during the summer thunderstorm season that thing would be sounding off just too many times. At least now I could tune it just to my county which is better than the entire forecast area of Tampa Bay.
How much lows do you see???LOL

LinkLink
the low is over columbia that blob has even lesser of a chance. and you can see the dry air in the water vapor imagery showing the shear.
My Mom asked me that question. Where would I go? She is in a Mobile Home and thats what she asked me when I got her a Weather Radio. I told her get outside and get in the ditch! She is 81. You could imagine the look on her face.
the GFS model is predicting about 3 systems one in the pacific and two in the atlantic near the bahamas. the other one is near panama.
Drakoen you have mail...
the gfs is also predicitng low shear values for the area that it has developing.
Actually Drakoen, the GFS is forecasting higher shear than what it initialized with. In fact there's some initialization error, because the GFS has shear values currently at 10 knots or lower over the western Caribbean, which is obviously not the case.

I have to go now guys. Later everyone!
still the GFS is showing development in the frist week of MAY
The weather radio I just purchased (Midland WR-300) is SAME programmable and allows you to pick which alerts it sounds an alarm for. I made it so that only Severe Thunderstorm Warnings, Tornado Watch & Warnings sound an alarm. We've had some rough weather here in Texas of late so it's been tested thoroughly.
Wheres the link to the GFS and other models?
heres the link for the GFS http://www.wunderground.com/modelmaps/maps.asp?model=NAM&domain=US under model click gfs under domain click tropical atlantic, then "add map" use the animation.
This is a very good law,that could in theory set a precedent in terms of emergency prepardness laws.I wonder how many more states will begin trying to improve their emergency systems and responses.
I just want my weather radio to pick up...and my cell phone and my stereo ...I live in a bad spot for RF reception...of any kind it seems...LOL
57. Inyo
Yeah, years ago i had a weather radio here in CA and didn't know the alarm was on.. it woke me up in the middle of one night to tell me there was a wind advisory in the desert. The desert was 80 miles away and it was dead calm where I was... I turned the alarm off. Granted, I live in California where tornados rarely do enough damage to be that big of a deal, and aren't forecast well anyway. Still, it is good to know that they are more specific now.

that being said, I agree with Dr Masters in that if there's no where to go, what point does it serve? "WAKE UP! YOURE SCREWED!!!!!" alarms aren't that great
On weather radios:

Great Blog Dr. Masters! I don't live in a mobile home, but became familiar with weather radios when I once worked as security guard for a large stamping plant in my county.

In fact I liked it so much I went out and bought one made by Radio Shack. It has been a bit inconvenient: once or twice I was startled out of a deep sleep in the middle of the night over a tornado watch or flood warning that were not in my area. However, by and large I am glad I have it - most of the time I get the severe weather alerts before the local T.V. or radio stations broadcast them. And if I want to get a detailed weather forecast I just need to push a button.

I whole heartedly encourage everyone to buy one - a good one isn't all that expensive, and it may, like a smoke alarm, save your life and the lives of the ones you love.
Looks as if a low is spinning up near 24N 63W
I think it would be great to require "every" home to have a weather radio..........


I agree Kman..... interesting to observe.....
The blob is being torn apart.
Conditions are unfavorable which is a great thing and from the looks an upper low seems to be embedded within the trof located around 24N.In 5-6 weeks will be a good time to begin watching waves moving into the caribbean.For now lets enjoy the quite times.
While many of the traditional genesis factors appear to be setting up for an active early season (SST's, lower shear, etc.) in the Carribean/Gulf, we still have not seen persistent convection from the current blob off SA which appears to be dissipating....
Here is a large visible image of the caribbean from my software.

For those who were not aware of the Hurricane Conference that took place in the bahamas about a week ago here is the link to great discussions that took place includeing bill gray on his 07 perdictions and a few others.

Video Coverage of conference
Dr Masters, I cannot believe they actually have made a law that makes sense. Thanks for the information.
Excellent blog Dr Masters.

For those of the why get wolk up to die. Even if there is no shelter the bath tub of a mobile home with bedding on top ya gives better odds than laying in bed. The recent storms through FL showed many surviviors that holed up in a tub of a mobile home & it was the only part left standing.
The so called " blob " in the S Caribbean ( and it does not IMO qualify to be called that ) is in fact dissipating. There is a huge arc cloud which means collapsing thunderstorms

ULL embedded...No worries for another 5-6 weeks atleast.
Pray we do not get this set up in the heart of the season.
Close-up of the arc cloud:

blob
Yes indeed Kman.
Posted By: kmanislander at 6:50 PM GMT on April 27, 2007.

The so called " blob " in the S Caribbean ( and it does not IMO qualify to be called that ) is in fact dissipating. There is a huge arc cloud which means collapsing thunderstorms



That's an outflow boundary,which has very little to do with the life stages of a thunderstorm.It is a mesoscale front/trough caused by the downdraft of the storm.This system has 0 chance of development regardless.It is odd to see an west-ward moving tropical disturbance in the Eastern Carribean this early,though.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 PM EDT FRI APR 27 2007

IN THE EXTENDED SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
IS INVERTED TROUGH NEAR HISPANIOLA.
THE GFS ONLY NUDGES THIS
TROUGH TOWARD S FLA THROUGH THE WEEK AND THEN DEVELOPS A SFC LOW
OVER THE CENT BAHAMAS BY FRIDAY.
THIS SHOULD KEEP PRECIP WELL AWAY
FROM S FLA BUT STAY TUNED IF THIS GETS CLOSER.



"Inverted trough" is another phrase meaning "tropical wave".
None of the other NWS offices are mentioning it.
Pray we do not get this set up in the heart of the season.

I second that kman! I was just looking at the long range GFS and do not like the general shape of the high it is setting up....Still a long ways off thoug, and I am hoping that this trend will not continue....Would not be good for the islands the E coast or GOM...Certainly don't trust long range model much though...

More wait and see...Get used to it. Same deal with this Cent Amer blob thing. It is a week out the GFS is showing a surface low...Not to mention I don't think the SSTs can support anything right now...
In the Carribean?Have you seen an SST map since January?....they are more than sufficient all through the Carribean and part of the Gulf.
Not that anything will form,though.Very unlikely.
Have you seen an SST map since January?

No need to be like that kris, you've seen my blog so you know I have seen an SST map or two....

Now then, I don't think they are calling for the surface low to develop until it gets a little further N and the SSTs in that area look to be mostly under 79 to me...
Just playing around SJ....you said "Central American blob",so I thought you meant in the Carribean.
Dont think anything will occur if this dry air is still hanging around.Much needed rain for south florida is welcomed.

As far as SST'S they are plenty warm in the caribbean right now and could even support a minimal TS or CAT1 if the conditions favored it.

jjj
Lets hope nothing forms! Early storm would send gas prices sky rocketing!
You are right kris...My bad!...doh....

I meant to say the Hispanola thingy...Not even a blob yet. I really screwed that all up the first time around.

If something were to develope and become a major threat in the GOM this year gas prices will sky rocket to record levels.They are already at $3.00 here.
WTH is sky rocketing TWC? Seem pretty high already! Can't afford this stuff no more...Give me something better!
I remember in 2005 paying $3.75 for gas across south florida.It took about 35-37 dollars to fill my honda.That hurts.
Posted By: TheCaneWhisperer

Lets hope nothing forms! Early storm would send gas prices sky rocketing!


And I thought it was skyrocketing already.
Back in the old days i remember gas was $1.50 and took about 15-18 dollars to fill up.Seems like another lifetime.
Old days...lmao...I member when it was well under 1$ I am sure we have some here who remember it being even cheaper!
I think it was back in 1998 or 97 where it got down to 99 cents in my town.
My local paper said it was above $4 in San Francisco.
Gas is up to $3.00 a gallon based on supply and demand right now. Toss in some storms and, oh yes, that $4+ per gallon will be a reality.
Good info SW, and good to see you!
Weatherboykris

Had to step away for a bit
Arc cloud=outflow boundary
Link
Very interesting looking for April. Has that "comma" shape

Dr. Masters, I agree that the radios are a very good thing to have, We have one too. But building standards & other factors like shelters are just as important, as well as where they are located if they will hold everyone needed. But what angers me is that only mobile homes are targeted for tornado safety. What about Schools & apartment buildings,etc. There are a lot more factors involved than just the fact that it is a mobile home. Unless you are below ground level, your chances of survival are slim, in any home if it sustains a direct hit.
I am in Wichita, Ks. The 1991 "Andover, Ks." tornado came through Haysville & Wichita before going through Andover. I have lived here most of my life but that was the first tornado I had ever seen. The path of destruction was tremendous. Afterwards, Wichita started requiring mobile home parks to have shelters. In fact, they must have enough for ALL residents. Many didn't have any or enough space for everyone. Most apartment buildings have no where for their residents to go & not even a way to warn them but they aren't required to have safe places but they should have to. Our children should be safe in school, too. Building standards for all homes should be improved.
I need to give you some details about our experience to get to my point. Because warnings were slower then, the TV reports had the tornado still in Haysville, south of us, about 10 - 15 min. away & we had JUST got that info & the sirens were just going off. But the tornado was on our doorstep, literally. The shelter was on the other side of the park. We ran out the back door & hung on to the porch as it went over. Everything around us was being torn up & debris was flying everywhere. My husband watched the privacy fence, about 20' behind us, peel off & the metal shed, 10' from me; peel open like the tornado had a can opener. About 30' away, an 8'- 2'x4' impaled the neighbor's house. An ice chest landed in front of me. I kept my head covered, I didn't want to see what was coming at me. I wondered, "Is this my time?" I kept waiting for the flying debris to hit me, but God was protecting us. We never heard or felt anything, even the wind. We truly believe God had an angel surrounding us. When it was over, we had to walk around to the front door as the back one had locked on us. I ran out barefoot, but got through all of the debris in the yard & into the house & through all of the glass & debris inside, to the bedroom to get a clean pair of shoes. Neither of us had one scratch on us. I don't need to describe anymore. You have seen enough aftermath's to know what the ground looked like when it was over. I have pictures of our house & area around where we were laying to show all the damage & debris Most of our Mobile Home park was leveled, ALONG WITH the REGULAR HOUSES behind us.
The house was a single wide & sustained $16,000 in damage to the structure alone. In 1991, that was a lot, it almost totaled it out. It was only 3 or 4 years old. The man we bought it from, was an aeronautical engineer. When he bought it, he put nice looking steel skirting instead of that vinyl that most places want you to use & the house was tied down really well. That steel skirting was still in place. Even with all of the damage, we did not have to relevel it or reset it, unlike the other few that were still standing.
We were safe, due to the grace of God & the forethought of the previous owner. The same storm resistant standards for mobile homes, should apply to all homes & visa versa. The reason more people are killed in mobile homes, is because there more people in a more confined area. The mobile homes were no more destroyed than the other homes behind us.

I hear a lot of moaning & bitch'n on here about the price of gasoline. Yes, I agree that there is a real risk of the price going to $4.00 per gallon if we get hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico this season.

While blaming Bush & Cheney are you driving a big gas-guzzling SUV or pickup truck? It is everyones responsibility to try and conserve gas. I take the bus to work Monday, Wedneday, & Friday. I drive a 2005 Toyota Corolla. Toyota had discontinued the Echo in Model year 2005 & didn't have the Yaris available until the following year otherwise I probably would have bought one.

This energy crises is not going away anytime soon so ask yourselves what you can do to help alleviate the problem.
We pay US$5.0 per imperial gallon.
It could be a lot worse up North
109. Inyo
once we vote away these republicans the gas situation will be better... however, I guess the gas prices at least decrease usage some. I'd rather see that 53.4 billion dollars go to mass transit and alternative fuel research though, rather than a fleet of Leerjets for the oil company CEOs and to bribes to Cheney.
Here's a good article on Ellis Race Track a year after the tornado. Amazing only 3 horses & no people died in that storm. In the end it revitalised & found a new buyer for the aging track that was being treatened to go simalcast only. All fixed up, thanks in part to insurance, handles are at record highs.
111. Dyce
Thats right it's all the republicans fault. Once Hillary is in office all the problems just disappear. We'll see, I'll put money on it that I'll be able to find plenty of problems that occur during the democrats time in office. Don't try to blame one person for a problem like gas.
112. RL3AO
We should try to avoid the politcal stuff because it can get pretty nasty.
Well I dont know about all Republicans The Bush Administration has effectively muzzled government scientists and stifled debate and even discussion of very important climate topics. If a democrat doesnt reverse these directives and gag laws, for whatever reason, they will be just as bad as the current disastrous administration.

One thing for sure: scientists that receive the majority or all of their funding by an industry with vested interest their results slanting a specific way should NEVER be (and should have never been) taken seriously as a legitimate source.
"Mobile homes... ...must come equipped with a weather radio... ...how many mobile home owners will simply turn off their weather radios...?

You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make him (or her) drink.

Added later> I checked the SAME code on the weather radio here (a fire station) and someone had entered the incorrect code. The set up on this popular unit was a little counterintuitive, so it is easy to imagine that some will be too lazy or otherwise unable to achieve the proper set up.

Find your SAME code.
115. Dyce
I understand the Bush administration hasn't been perfect but putting the broad classification of it be the republicans fault is what I think is wrong. Then assumming the democrats will automatically be great about the situation is what I also have a problem with. Right now were going through a ever increasing technology age and that requires gas, so of course gas will always be rising. There have been natural disasters that haven't helped. It isn't solely the presidents fault... and reread my first line before you think I'm saying you are completely wrong.
UGGGHH!

another Global-warming-like rant!

those evil republicans! the democrats will save the world! LOL

sorry I can't hang out to hear more! :)
Check out The Presidents Ranch in Crawford Texas. Very efficient and he built it before he was elected. BTW... owning a diverse portfolio is smart investing. You who bash the republicans cannot possibly believe that those rich Democrats dont have petroleum stocks in their portfolios....do you?
Gore makes twenty grand or so a year from a zinc mine located on HIS land. Oh by the way, Those carbon credits he buys to offset his usage come from HIS OWN COMPANY. Wake up people.
Check out The Presidents Ranch in Crawford Texas. Very efficient and he built it before he was elected. BTW... owning a diverse portfolio is smart investing. You who bash the republicans cannot possibly believe that those rich Democrats dont have petroleum stocks in their portfolios....do you?

Hmm - I am from Midland and I remember where they got their money. It is not a democrats vs republican issue. You really need to look into the oil field history. I grew up through bust and booms. Don't ever down a person for not taking a chance an a future. Also - don't forget that the refinery have to be upgraded very soon - it will effect the stocks.
Also - when you talk about the stock market - or should I say the commodities market - in the same breath with global warming -- it is an oxymoron.
I agree. The problem is that petro prices have only been an issue lately. If you factor in inflation, gas prices are where they should be. We haven't built any new refineries since the seventies. This issue will die when the dems take office in 08. And it wont be because they did anything about it.
Also im not downing anyone. I'm tired of rocks being thrown at the president. I have serious problems with some of the decisions he has made. However, most of the crap being thrown at him and the republicans here and elsewhere just dosent stick.
If you factor in inflation, gas prices are where they should be. We haven't built any new refineries since the seventies. This issue will die when the dems take office in 08. And it wont be because they did anything about it.

no first, the issue will not die because in America (as well as other places) petro as become a necessity of life (whether we like it or not -- remember that you need oil to make plastics and some fertilizers). Second, although I am not a person to say that the sky is falling. There are limited reserves left in the world. And most are not in advantageous place political. As I said before, it is not a democrat/republican issue -- it is a world issue. The price of gas, including heatin oil, is going to continue to rise. The effect is going to ripple - in order words you are going to pay more for everything that you buy at the store. Goods have to move. Whether by ship, train or truck -- they all use a gas byproduct.

Lastly - on the commodities market - you have people that have never predicted the profits of oil. after the last bust in approximately the late eightys -- alot of the people who actually knew the industry went to other fields. You will see the instability at the first hint of the possibility of a can sneaking into the gulf this season.

The petro problem is a world problem. Also - the refinery problem is a byproduct of the lust for more profits and the demand for lower energy prices that were created in the last bust.
Also im not downing anyone. I'm tired of rocks being thrown at the president. I have serious problems with some of the decisions he has made. However, most of the crap being thrown at him and the republicans here and elsewhere just dosent stick.

He as a president makes decisions. It is interesting how his own party is turning on him. However, it is not about throwing rock but about the people stating what they want from their government
Come on, folks. No matter what side they're on, most politicians care about one thing: Lining their own wallets.

The simple fact is that petroleum supplies are a problem. We'll do OK for a while, with the discovery of the Athabasca oil sands, but a long-term solution is needed. That means funding chemists, NOT climatologists. Of course, we do need the latter, but finding better sources of energy needs to be a priority. We can survive limited climate change.

Face it. Oil has replaced religion as the biggest source of conflict on earth. The only solution is to find an alternative. Quite frankly, I think that SOLAR energy may be our savior. Where wind is reliable, it will make an excellent adjunct.
Please stop the political mudslinging... Spend some time researching alternative energy and ways of reducing consumption. Instead of reading up on what democrat wants us to use 1 square of toilet paper or which republican wants to invade iran, learn about compact fluorescent lightbulbs, geothermal heating and cooling, solar panels, wind generators, and hybrid cars. You'll find that YOU can make a difference, if only a small one. And if enough contribute, it won't be a small difference afterall.
Did I say something not true about Bush scientific policy? He censored government experts because he didn't "agree" with them. I don't care for the dishonesty and subterfuge on this particular issue, thats all.

If you want to criticize Clinton or other democrats on global warming Fine, there is plenty there, but, Bush is driving the bus now.

A few people on the Internet show up and think they can politicize an issue and scare other people away from honest commentary by getting all puffy. I'm tired of that.

Ref-


Climate Expert Says NASA Tried to Silence Him


-----

Bush administration accused of doctoring scientists' reports on climate change

Inconvenient conclusions censored, hearing told
Researchers warned not to talk about global warming


-----


In the last year and a half, one of the leading oil industry public relations outlets, the Global Climate Coalition, has spent more than a million dollars to downplay the threat of climate change ...

For the most part the industry has relied on a small band of skeptics - Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, Dr. Pat Michaels, Dr. Robert Balling, Dr. Sherwood Idso, and Dr. S. Fred Singer, among others - who have proven extraordinarily adept at draining the issue of all sense of crisis.

Lindzen, for his part, charges oil and coal interests $2,500 a day for his consulting services; his 1991 trip to testify before a Senate committee was paid for by Western Fuels, and a speech he wrote, entitled "Global Warming: the Origin and Nature of Alleged Scientific Consensus," was underwritten by OPEC.


Today:

U.S. Proposal Would Allow Oil Drilling Off Virginia

The Interior Department will announce a proposal Monday to allow oil and gas drilling in federal waters near Virginia that are currently off-limits and permit new exploration in Alaska's Bristol Bay and the Gulf of Mexico, according to people who have seen or been told about drafts of the plan.


And for the No "NEW Refinery" Argument - follow the money [read the links this guy provides] and you'll find the answer to that one:

this internal Texaco strategy memo: "[T]he most critical factor facing the refining industry on the West Coast is the surplus of refining capacity, and the surplus gasoline production capacity. (The same situation exists for the entire U.S. refining industry.) Supply significantly exceeds demand year-round. This results in very poor refinery margins and very poor refinery financial results. Significant events need to occur to assist in reducing supplies and/or increasing the demand for gasoline." The memo went on to discuss a successful campaign in Washington State to shrink refined supply by removing other additives in the gasoline that filled gas volume.

Another Mobil memo shows the company promoted tough regulations in California to shut down an independent refiner. A Chevron memo acknowledged the industry wide need to shutter refineries and discussed how refiners were responding in kind.
Oil has replaced religion as the biggest source of conflict on earth. The only solution is to find an alternative. Quite frankly, I think that SOLAR energy may be our savior. Where wind is reliable, it will make an excellent adjunct.

you are totally correct. But as long as there are fortunes tied with oil - I am not sure that it will happen. As I said before - the petro crisis is not a democrat/republican issue but a world issue.
128. Hu
It's all about money. I agree that solar,wind and other alternative fuels are good for the environment. However, as long as people are more concerned about themselves,and not about each other, that's the way it will be. How unfortunate. Egos will be the downfall of us all. Hu
132. 882MB
Hey everybody goodmorning, From the look at the 2 MOST ECENT GFS LOOP CONTINUE TO SHOW DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARRIBEAN IN 1 TO 2 WEEKS!
From looking at recent runs from the GFS the one thing thats sticks out to me is that the GFS has begun developing these fantasy storms that have to be taken with great caution which 85 percent of the the time never take place. This will only get worse as we get deeper into the season.For me personaly i look for model consistency from different models along with a host of other factors that have to be taken into consideration.

Overall i think its still a tad bit to early for this type of event to take place.The 00Z GFS has 1006-1008mb area of low pressure developing in the caribbean moving NE towards cuba.On the 06Z the GFS contInues to show a weak area of low pressure 1007mb in the caribbean moving NE.Anyway this should be used as a wake-up call that hurricane season is fast approaching take care adrian.

Adrian's Weather
2 weeks to East-pac..Id say we have a lil while mo to wait....Jazzfest Here in Nola.We a rocking! Jazzfest 07 A slideshow Link
Hey Stormw!
Nice and sunny here in the Florida Desert...aka Jacksonville. Almost time to warm up the anti-cyclonic generators for hurricane season.
Morning all.

Good to see you rx7, been awhile!
For those of you looking for a "second opinion" re: the GFS model, go to the GFS Parallel site. It is basically the experimental GFS model with new equations and I believe a more enhanced grid field. The GFS-P model is scheduled to be turned into the operational GFS model on 1 May. To view the GFS-P model, just go: HERE
How's it going crown, good to see you and thanks for the info!
Good morning from the Caymans

There are signs of a transition into the season.Although the Caribbean is still very dry overall we are starting to see persistent showers in the S Caribbean. This is also the breeding ground for any early season activity that might occur so the evolution of moisture levels will be of interest to all.

DUM DUM DUM DUM DUMMMM...

I've been checking in now and again. Been busy with work and lack of weather here in Jacksonville.

Last frame of the GFS (850 mb Vort.) has a low with a spin just north of Puerto Rico on 5/14...could that be our first storm of the season. Yeah, yeah, it's two weeks out...
Story,

How persistent is that High in that area?
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,70131-1263216,00.html

Earthquakes in England. Hate to have been in the Chunnel during that.
149. ryang
Morning all...
hi
Back to Dr. Master's original theme about mobile homes. We need to remember that these are really MOBILE homes, not mobile houses. They are designed to move and be moved. That leads to the question, why mobile? The answer is that there are usually loopholes in the law that make ownership much cheaper than owning a house. This type of housing exists for one reason, legal loopholes.

Mobile homes are really just RVs on steroids. As such they are built like RVs. This means that they are "designed" to be built extremely quickly with the cheapest possible Bill of Materials. Looking at the pictures Dr. Masters posted you will see that the siding has blown off of the units. The siding is just held on with staples just like the framing is held together with staples. Once the wind lifts one sheet then all the sheets of siding will come off. You don't want to be outside in a mobile home park during a tornado. You would be cut to shreds. Pilots have a name for this, FOD or Flying Object Damage. Once the siding is off all semblance of structural integrity is gone and the mobile home will disintegrate. A lot of the better RVs will have laminated sandwich sides which will not have this kind of failure mode. But lamination is not common for mobile homes for various reasons one of which is cost.

Since these are mobile homes there has to be someplace for the wheels so they sit up high off the ground with open space beneath. Strong winds can then get a real "bite" on the structure and pick it up or roll it. Besides making a mobile home easy for wind to get a "bite" on, they will be hard to exit rapidly for elderly or handicapped persons. If there was a warning, and if there was a shelter, these types of homes are very hard to exit for some.

To address these kinds of concerns governor Daniels might well have had the legislature look into setting higher standards for mobile home construction. Since Indiana is one of the nations leading states for the manufacture of RVs and mobile homes this would be a good place to start. What kind of thing could be set as a standard:

1. Take away any "loopholes" in tax laws that mobile homes enjoy.

2. Require certain types of structural integrity standards like the ability to withstand rolling over without disintigrating, the ability to withstand 150mph winds without producing FOD and perhaps a portion of the building designed not to collapse during a tornadic event much like autos are required to have for passenger compartment integrity.

3. Make it illegal to continuously occupy a mobile structure over a week in one location without provision of a tiedown system capable of withstanding 150mph winds.

4. Require the mobile home parks to install at least one elevated emergency siren system for each five acres of land. This makes much more sense than installing alarms in the mobile homes themselves as it will warn people outside the mobile homes as well as those inside and will work for both old and new construction whether built in Indiana or not.

5. Spend money on research for "On the Ground Tornado Detectors". This is quite doable with today's technology.

And finally, my cynical take on putting alarms in new mobile homes is that it will help the insurance industry by giving them an out against claims that a person was injured or killed because they were in a mobile home. On the one hand they can say why didn't you leave the structure when the alarm went off and on the other hand they can say you didn't change the batteries or turn it on if that was the case.


You can't change the weather, but you can sure carry an umbrella.

TOP
People keep barking about oil company profits as if it's a crime to make a profit. No profit, no company, no jobs, period. If you had sales of 365 billion for your company, a 36 billion net income is reasonable at 10%.

Supply and demand for crude is real, and we're not helping with our wasteful ways. It's not the politicians - Rep. of Dem. fault. It's our fault. The U.S. consumes and throws away a far higher percentage of the world's resources than is fair. If all countries used the same ratio, there would not be much gas to buy, much less other scarce metals. The China demand is just getting started, as well as India in their thirst for crude. Ethanol is not the answer. The energy cost (total expenses - production/ marketing/ delivery) for ethanol production is higher than gasoline, so it's not that efficient. Refineries haven't been built because of the strict EPA regulations - Democrats fault.

Weather radios in all homes is a nice idea, but if a tornado hits, there simply is not much protection in any home if there is no shelter, or you can't get to one fast enough. If a house is like a can, a mobile home is the equivalent of a TV dinner tray in strength.

I got tired of the smoke detector going off all the time from cooking, so I turned it off. I'd do the same with the weather radio after enough false alerts.

To mandate a law that you have to have one, is just another intrusion by gov't. Probably a democrat's idea. For a cover up, read about seat belts. It's based on erroneous conclusions if you read the research. While it may save some lives, it is actually responsible for many more injuries.

Apologies to you weather guys, but here's hoping for a really boring hurricane season.
People keep barking about oil company profits as if it's a crime to make a profit. No profit, no company, no jobs, period. If you had sales of 365 billion for your company, a 36 billion net income is reasonable at 10%.

I completely agree, in fact i think they should raise the prices even further. Were lucky to pay 2 dollars a gallon to put it in perspective germany has to pay about 1 euro per liter. roughly 4 liters to a gallon and roughly 1,5 dollars to a euro means they are paying nearly 6 dollars a gallon. I think that in order for people to really slow usage and encourage conservation they have to really spike the prices.

To mandate a law that you have to have one, is just another intrusion by gov't. Probably a democrat's idea. For a cover up, read about seat belts. It's based on erroneous conclusions if you read the research. While it may save some lives, it is actually responsible for many more injuries.

First of all it shouldnt be which politcal party did it and second of all Mitch Daniels, the governor who signed this bill is a republican. Second of all your statement about seat belts if you are correct in what your saying i have one question for you. Would you rather get injured or die?
We would give anything for $2 gas.
Try $5 per imperial gallon !. Thats what we pay.
Fortunately the island is small and even though it costs $55 to fill my car I can run a week on that. An suv costs about $70 to fill up here
Not as active as yesterday but still there. Hope it comes this way with some much needed rain
that looks like F5 damage in dr m photo
Taz,

F5 leaves nothing standing. Those walls, trees, powerpolls, ect would be nothing but splinters.
ok would that be F4?
Chuckles~ I had problems with my smoke detector going off a few minutes each night before dinner was even done. Though it did double as a dinner bell, I researched it & replaced the ionization type I had with a photelectric type. It bumps the price up slightly but certainly worthy of the investment & still fairly cheap. Just as the weather radio with the SAME technology is worth a few extra dollars to cut out alarms your not interested in.
: chuckles - If a house is like a can, a mobile home is the equivalent of a TV dinner tray in strength.
Posted By: kellnerp at 1:57 PM GMT on April 28, 2007.

Kelnerp - Back to Dr. Master's original theme about mobile homes. We need to remember that these are really MOBILE homes, not mobile houses. They are designed to move and be moved. That leads to the question, why mobile? The answer is that there are usually loopholes in the law that make ownership much cheaper than owning a house. This type of housing exists for one reason, legal loopholes.

Mobile homes are really just RVs on steroids. As such they are built like RVs. This means that they are "designed" to be built extremely quickly with the cheapest possible Bill of Materials. Looking at the pictures Dr. Masters posted you will see that the siding has blown off of the units. The siding is just held on with staples just like the framing is held together with staples. Once the wind lifts one sheet then all the sheets of siding will come off. You don't want to be outside in a mobile home park during a tornado. You would be cut to shreds. Pilots have a name for this, FOD or Flying Object Damage. Once the siding is off all semblance of structural integrity is gone and the mobile home will disintegrate. A lot of the better RVs will have laminated sandwich sides which will not have this kind of failure mode. But lamination is not common for mobile homes for various reasons one of which is cost.

Since these are mobile homes there has to be someplace for the wheels so they sit up high off the ground with open space beneath. Strong winds can then get a real "bite" on the structure and pick it up or roll it. Besides making a mobile home easy for wind to get a "bite" on, they will be hard to exit rapidly for elderly or handicapped persons. If there was a warning, and if there was a shelter, these types of homes are very hard to exit for some.

To address these kinds of concerns governor Daniels might well have had the legislature look into setting higher standards for mobile home construction. Since Indiana is one of the nations leading states for the manufacture of RVs and mobile homes this would be a good place to start. What kind of thing could be set as a standard:

1. Take away any "loopholes" in tax laws that mobile homes enjoy.

2. Require certain types of structural integrity standards like the ability to withstand rolling over without disintigrating, the ability to withstand 150mph winds without producing FOD and perhaps a portion of the building designed not to collapse during a tornadic event much like autos are required to have for passenger compartment integrity.

3. Make it illegal to continuously occupy a mobile structure over a week in one location without provision of a tiedown system capable of withstanding 150mph winds.

4. Require the mobile home parks to install at least one elevated emergency siren system for each five acres of land. This makes much more sense than installing alarms in the mobile homes themselves as it will warn people outside the mobile homes as well as those inside and will work for both old and new construction whether built in Indiana or not.

5. Spend money on research for "On the Ground Tornado Detectors". This is quite doable with today's technology.

And finally, my cynical take on putting alarms in new mobile homes is that it will help the insurance industry by giving them an out against claims that a person was injured or killed because they were in a mobile home. On the one hand they can say why didn't you leave the structure when the alarm went off and on the other hand they can say you didn't change the batteries or turn it on if that was the case.


You can't change the weather, but you can sure carry an umbrella.
***********************************************
(I don't know if I got the quotes from your comments in here, the right way or not. I am fairly new at this & not a whiz on the computer)

I think all of you have a misconception about many of the mobile homes made today. Granted, there are still many that are cheap junk as they used to be. Many are built good & even better than some stick built homes. I come from a construction family so I know what I am talking about. I've seen new stick built homes that are junk.
We moved to this place in 1994. We moved into an old home, intending to build beside it and tear down the old one. These lots are very long & narrow. The builders could not put their plans on it because of that. So we put a double wide mobile home on it. This houses has 2'x6' walls, has a very high energy rating & it is secured on a foundation. It has regular siding & sheetrocked walls. My Dad was a builder & drywaller. He built his own home. He hated mobile homes but loved this one & had to admit there was nothing wrong with it. We pay taxes & insurance on it, as a house. It IS a house. Because of the way it's built & secured to the foundation, I would ride out strong winds or a tornado in this before any of these other homes around here, including the new ones they put in.
There has been a lot of talk on here about high SST levels this year in the Atlantic basin. Is it just me or have the SSTs dropped from a week ago? A few weeks ago it looked like we were just a tad off of 2005 levels & now the gap seems a lot bigger.
Refineries haven't been built because of the strict EPA regulations - Democrats fault.


Read my last post - refineries not built - even shut down - by big oil to increase profitability and stated in internal memos. Big oil even supported restrictive regulation to shut down independent refineries. So thats just wrong and really a bold lie by certain insiders. A SHAM Kinda like the California energy crisis.


To mandate a law that you have to have one, is just another intrusion by gov't. Probably a democrat's idea.


Mobile homes EXIST because they have been given a special exemption to state building codes. They are totally a creature of government intrusion. You need to research more instead of automatically leveling blame by political affiliation.


Ref-

Manufactured housing (mobile homes) that is built on a permanent chassis and according to HUD construction standards (the HUD code) is exempt from state and local building codes. The federal preemption allows manufactured homes to be built for shipment as a complete unit to any location. The HUD code for manufactured housing, primarily containing performance-based requirements, is generally less restrictive than primarily prescriptive-based site-built housing codes.

--------------------

The three internal memos from Mobil, Chevron, and Texaco (Click here to read the memos.) show different ways the oil giants closed down refining capacity and drove independent refiners out of business. The confidential memos demonstrate a nationwide effort by American Petroleum Institute, the lobbying and research arm of the oil industry, to encourage the major refiners to close their refineries in the mid-1990s in order to raise the price at the pump.

"Large oil companies have for a decade artificially shorted the gasoline market to drive up prices," said FTCR president Jamie Court, who successfully fought" to keep Shell Oil from needlessly closing its Bakersfield, California refinery this year.
......
F5 Damage and different strengths below.
SSTs are warmer than average in the MDR, not sure how it compares to last year though they sure haven't gotten any colder, definitely on a warming trend



La nina Is dying down.
Why is everything in italics???
because SAVEDBYGOD didnt end the command for italics
the only thing keeping this season from kicking off early is shear, once it dies down there is going to be some major activity, the SAL has weakened significantly over the past couple weeks

could el nino come back???
its always possible but no, its either going to be a la nina or neutral year this year, more than likely 1/3 of the season will be neutral, 2/3 la nina
Is there any new waves that we have to monitor at this time? Don't you think the wave south of Puerto Rico that has held together since yesterday bares some watching just incase the convection should happen to blow up?
We would give anything for $2 gas.
Try $5 per imperial gallon !. Thats what we pay.
Fortunately the island is small and even though it costs $55 to fill my car I can run a week on that. An suv costs about $70 to fill up here


Thats high, however in Europe the governments put on alot of taxes. In Portugal I pay the equivalent of $7 per U.S. gallon. About 75% of the price is taxes. I have a van which costs about 115 Euros ($145) to fill up!!! This is the reason most Europeans drive small fuel efficient cars as compared to the U.S.

P.S. I remember in the early 1970s before the first gas "shortage" (created by the companies to boost prices) gas was 28 cents a gallon!
The PR thingie barely constitutes a wave and there is no convection in sight......I would not worry about it; it should be gone by tommorow
JFlorida - That may be true but you can not put mobile homes on a foundation in this city, unless they conform to all building codes. In fact, some of the requirments to put a mobile home on a city lot are more stringent than for a regular home. Our home exceeds many of the building codes. Consumer demand for more quality homes has introduced more selections especially in quality. I am not saying that all Mobile Homes are built well & are all secured down, just as they are not all "tin cans." I can't pull a truck up to mine & tow it away. What I do know is that mine will withstand storms & winds as well as most other homes. There are some homes being built now that are more storm & wind resistant. They are also doing some of the same with Mobile & prefab homes. Truthfully, I cannot remember if ours has the roof straps on it or not, I think it does.
True, the cheaper mobile homes have been built for those who cannot afford a regular house but want a place of their own. There is nothing wrong with that. The apartment buildings & old homes as well as many of our schools, fare no better in a tornado or bad storm. THAT is my point. I didn't intend to get off of that. I apologize to everyone, I never intended to make this a debate. I just wanted safety concerns put where they need to be, not focused on one thing. This is the last I will say.
Face it. Oil has replaced religion as the biggest source of conflict on earth.

How true in some cases. Just look at World War II. The Japanese bombed Pearl Harbor to prevent the U.S. fleet from stopping them invading the Indonesean oil fields. Japan desperately needed the oil because the U.S. had cut theirs off. Germany attempted to take the Caspian oil fields and that resulted in the horrific slaughter of Stalingrad. And of course Gulf War I and II are all about the Middle East oil fields.
I just read the not about the italics, I was gone. I'm sorry. How do I do that?
Posted By: MissBennet at 12:58 PM CDT on April 28, 2007.

Why is everything in italics???


Fixed (add (/em) to get rid of italics, except use less than and greater than signs instead of parentheses).
Thank you.
Also, I had to add it several times in a row inorder to stop it, indicating that (em) was used multiple times without a closing tag (to avoid this, use the Italics button, which will add both tags in their proper places when you select text and then click it).
Large oil companies have for a decade artificially shorted the gasoline market to drive up prices.

Thats been going on for way more than a decade, as I stated earlier.
Pilots have a name for this, FOD or Flying Object Damage.

May I make a minor correction here? FOD is Foreign Object Damage, usually caused by debris on a runway that can get sucked up into a jet intake causing severe damage on taxiing or takeoff. I am in the Air Force and this can be a big problem for fighter jets if the runways are not constantly kept clean.
If one ever thinks to remain in a Cat-3+ surge event or higher ...think again. In their own words..August 29,2005
GoD.. The dolphins suck... they should have picked Brady Quinn what were they thinking!!!!!!! anyways.... do u guys know when the hurricane forecast for 2007 from the NHC will come out?
the dolphins needed that Offensive Tackle position filled moreso than the QB. They are in talks with my Kansas City Chiefs to acquire Trent Green
I was surprised at that also Roman! Alot of uncertainty in the QB spot this year. 2nd week of May I believe is when the NHC releases thier forcast.
Not for sure on the Forcast though.
That video is crazy! look how those ppl move to their boat, id be terrified to go in that water..... thats a good viedo and they filmed it from their roof....
thank God Kansas City grabbed a WR, they're going to be tough this year. Too bad they aren't trying to grab Darrell Jackson, Marty Booker or Randy Moss though. Then they'd be unstoppable.
Their QB's suck ...they clearly need a new one..they have been playing horible for several years now... they had the perfect chance to pick him..... it was very unexpected that they didnt pick him...he looked like he was ready to come over here and so did his hot girlfriend lol
Kansas City's QBs? Did you see Huard's number last year? I agree Trent Green sucks now, but Damon Huard is a diamond in the rough. The problem with Kansas City is they don't have a deep threat at WR so defenses are able to play the run effectively without a threat of getting beat deep like Indy is notorious for. In KC's case its not the QB's its the lack of depth at the WR position.
when is Culpepper expected to be back in action?
Patrap,

That video is insane!
Fixed (add (/em) to get rid of italics, except use less than and greater than signs instead of parentheses).


ahhh thank you. Those italics make my eyes sore. =(
I have another question that I'm hopeing someone can help me with.

How do i keep my time zone correct? Each time I log on I have to go to member settings and re-select my time zone. And before you ask, yes I am pressing the "save settings" button. How do I keep it permanent?

Thanks ahead of time for your help.
Culpepper is still a question mark for anybody. I think Bowe is a great pick for KC!
savedbygod

I actually think inexpensive mobile homes and manufactured housing are an outstanding idea. They allow people who dont want to go into horrific dept or cant afford built housing or need something immediate on their property a viable solution.

Thats is how we moved onto our place.

The weather radio thing is a must though. A weather radio cost s about nothing and wont be costly to install - as a matter of fact if it adds more than 20 dollars to the expense of a home - they are doing something wrong. I worry about some family that probably works harder than anyone for what little they have been able to put together themselves being wiped out because the parents were too tired to wake up when a storm got bad.

I really wouldnt be against subsidizing them for older or not as structurally sound fixed dwellings, of which are a plenty. We obviously waste vast sums on policies without any socially redeeming features.


BTW -- be wary of anyone making big government arguments that favor oil companies. It probably in some way benefits them or organizations they are affiliated to. That is YOUR oil they are selling back to you; that they have usually gotten from some sweetheart deal with the federal government where they pay like only 30 percent of PROFITS (not expenses) to market you YOUR oil.

You have been and continue to be very generous to them via EXTENSIVE government enforced privileges YOU grant in their favor.
no .. not KC i mean miami
The border areas of Texas/Mexico are looking like there may be a flood problem and a serious bad weather outbreak in the near future - Monday or Tues. They should be preparing now out there or at least warning people (this being a la nina spring.)

I would also like to complain (again) about the condition of the buoy network - but ill save it for later ;-)
yeah, miami needs a qb bad, but I think by them not drafting one early that signifies they are probably going to get green
smoke plume from the Okefenokee fire:
Link
Yep it was nasty here in the morning, but the wind shifted more to the WNW and pushed the smoke plume south, thankfully. It will probably go across Jacksonville, FL. Very cool link HIEXPRESS :)
JFL~ New bouys are on the way.
YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA! I love the Buoys - Think I will even try to post a pic!!!!!


Those bouys will probably not be put to use till mid july if the current trend continues.One main reason iam looking at is the strong tutt that is located over the central and eastern atlantic currently.Also i would like to add there is currently 40-50kt shear across most of eastern atalntic from the african coast to parts of the caribbean.I think the main factor here that might hold off any early development will be the tutt being well established as it is.Things can change but the way i see it things we might be shapeing up for a slow start.Adrian

Also quick note i dont see any progress towards La nina from looking at the sub-surface.Iam not 100% sold on any nina taking shape this summer.
Click MSLP 1000-500 (loop) and watch the Carribean towards the end it has a TS!!!!!Link
not expecting to happen just fun to watch!!:)
That storm will not affect the US directly will it
More fantasy stuff from the GFS...Extremly long range and has to be taken with great caution.

One thing is true the 07 season is fast approaching.
Please visit my blog
how many TS has the GFS predicted, 4 TS in 2 months? Pretty good:)
Nice job with the blog thunder:) I like it alot:)
Stormchaser,

I think you are under estimating. It predicted 4 TS last week. What's up with the GFS? It didn't seem to be as unreliable in past years as it has been lately?

Maybe that is just my imagination... I hope this is NOT the sign of a hectic hurricane season like 2005.

Dakster, yeah your right, it has been more than 4, also i REALLY dont think that anything will form because if you look at the wind shear maps there way to high for any development!! Another thing I have a funny felling about this season because the GFS never used to even predict tropical development!
Heres the shear forecast.....Link Not really favorable for development at all!!
stormchasher dont go by the WU wind shear maps they dont tell you whats going on

ues winds whsar maps like this one
img src="http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8sht.GIF" width="640" height="427" alt="lol"
Conditions are ripe for TS formation early into the season with the exception of the shear and the relative lack of moisture; we will have to see what happens with the shear in the next two weeks..
Oh ok Taz thanks:)
Yeah with the exception of wind shear and moisture conditions are right.
shear is pretty normal right now, we'd probably see 28 storms this season if shear was favorable right now as opposed to the 20+ we'll see regardless.
So StoryOfTheCane, whats your feeling on the H-season??
Not sure what will happen in the long-term but I am pretty certain that we may see 1-2 tropical storms form before June 1st
My Predictions:

Right now I think we're looking at 19 storms, 13 hurricanes, 7 major hurricanes and 7 landfalls.

Gabrielle, Humberto, Jerry, Lorenzo, Melissa, Olga and Pablo are going to be our majors.
yeah that seems about right.
Have a good morning all; I'm off to church....
Hey pat, what do u see in your crystal ball??
234. MZT
Last year we had two "tropical lows" before Alberto that rode up the east coast. We debated on here whether they merited being called depressions.

So we'll probably see the same thing in May/June. A few invests that could *possibly* be an early start to the season, but aren't.

That's what "normal years" are like. In 2004 and 2005, it seemed like anything with the potential to develop... did.
how many do you guys expect to see this year?
I think May 21st will be the first named system, second being June 2nd
Heres my forecast


1) 17-19 storms(not including depressions)
2) 9-10 Hurricanes 2-3 land falling
3) 4-6 Intense hurricanes ( cat 3- 4 )
4) 1-2 Cat 5 ( 2 If its a strong La Nina )




Wow May 21st really detailed!
.. "Preparation through education is less costly than learning through tragedy."
- BILL PROENZA, DIRECTOR
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

This year Hurricane Preparedness Week is May 20-26, 2007
ah! when is it gonna rain here ...... its ridiculous... forecast here: no rain chances higher than 20 percent for at least the next 7 days ....(south florida) ..... it hasnt rained in a bout a month
: stormchasher her are some wind shear maps you sould ues


lol

lol

lol

lol

lol


I will have my forcast soon. I am going to say it again however I just have a good fealing this season will not be the major active season everyone thinks it will be.
Thanks Taz!!!:)
GTG:)
eyestoplogo1left.jpg

...May "smelling" early???
Whoa! I saw this video on youttube of Hurricane Charley cat.4 .... look at the continuous debris flying.... and all those roofs everywheres its crazy...... with how old my roof is ...it would be no match for something like this or a 3.....
Becareful not to confuse shear tendency maps with wind shear.Shear tendency maps only indicate where shear is increasing or decreasing, they do not indicate the amount of shear across the overall tropics.Adrian
Actually the shear tendecy map has the shear in color with the key to that on the side. Solid yellow lines (increasing) & the dotted blue lines (decreasing) tells how much the shear has risen or fallen in the last 3 hours.

What you don't want to confuse with shear is the stearing currents map. (3rd down in Taz's maps post.) That has how fast the air is moving & direction for that particuclar layer of air.
Dry May= Higher chance of hurricane strike...... On several websites i read that dry mays here in South florida usually have hurricane strikes.... like in 04, 92 , and a couple others...... I thought this was very intresting ...
Ligthning10,

From your lips to god's ears on the slow season. Although, a "slow" season where I get hit with one hurricane, is still a bad year for me.

I see that as proenza states, we are learning, since Hurricane preparedness week is a little earlier now in May instead of June. I remember the hurricane preparedness fair in 2005. The first storm was threatening before the fair...

About South Florida, no rain in sight, drought, fires, and water restrictions... Blame the SFWMD (South Florida Water Management District). Apparently they decided last year to release billions of gallons of water out of Lake Okeechobe becuase it was supposed to be an acive season and they worried about flooding. I know hindsight is 20/20, but they did this in 2000/2001 the last round of water restrictions. The same forecast, the same thing happened. Granted, this is better than the Dikes failing along the Lake, but you'd hope they wouldn't drop the Lake like in 2000. I won't second guess the experts, but someone has to come up with a better way to do this. Instead of dike failure, we may lose our potable water supply which could be just as devastating as the Dike failures. Today's Miami Herald had a nice article about it.

So if the Hurricane Gods are listening, NO HURRICANES, but feel free to send a bunch of rain our way.
that wave south of jamica is the one that has held together for the past 2 days...it doesnt look like much but shows signs of some spin to it....does this have a chance to develop further or am i just a little to over excited
louisianaboy444 - I think we all get a little jittery when the first little waves start to come across, but honestly I can 99.9% guarantee that nothing will develop this week considering the conditions. That "wave" you guys have been tracking isn't even a low, or a real wave for that matter.
Dak; I used to live in South Florida and I agree with the "missed call" on the early release of the water..However, as a fisherman, I loved the water releases cause the Snook went crazy at the inlets and passes..
254. FLARV
Is it just my wishful thinking, or are SSTs actually cooler in the atlantic than this time last year?
sst are warmer this year than last year
hello
Just took a break and came back....Why is everything green?; nevermind.........
hello
hi
Afternoon all.

23, The Gulf SSTs and the W Atl are actually cooler then they were last year this time. Still warmer then '05 though. Now the C and W Atl and are warmer.
www.wunderground.com/blog/Tazmanian/comment.html?entrynum=700&tstamp=200704
What is making everyone think that we will have an early start to the season when it offically starts in june...Not sounding rude but i seriously dont know can someone explain
Is There is a hint of a low level circulation north of Panama or not. I live in Grand Cayman and the weather pattern here to me in my personal observation seems very much like 2004, I couldn't take another Ivan!
Hi Stormpetrol

I too live on Grand Cayman. Have not seen you on here before so welcome. Are you new to the blog ?
I don't see anything here that looks like a low

Thanks Kmanislander, I'm new and still a bit confused but getting there, I'm just taking note of certain features like the very low tide in South Sound where I live, also the changing winds so abrubtly, In March we had strong winds out of the south for a few days which is rare, now they are switching all around!!Strange.What do you think? Are you noticing similiar patterns too?
No hint of any kind of circulation especially at the surface.Maybe possible in the next 4-5 weeks.
Quite times may continue till mid july if the current trend continues.One main reason iam looking at is the strong tutt that is located over the central and eastern atlantic currently.Also i would like to add there is currently 40-50kt shear across most of eastern atalntic from the african coast to parts of the caribbean.I think the main factor here that might hold off any early development will be the tutt being well established as it is.Things can change but the way i see it things we might be shapeing up for a slow start.Adrian

Also quick note i dont see any progress towards La nina from looking at the sub-surface.Iam not 100% sold on any nina taking shape this summer.
Why did the type go to Red all of a sudden?

Lousianaboy,

Part of it is "wishcasting", part of it is that everone is looking at environmental conditions and seeing waves that could normally develop if conditions were more favorable. Part of it is anxiety since we are getting close to the official start of hurricane season.

I'm not putting anyone down, it is the people that have the excitement and entusiasm for these storms that make this blog interesting to read. (I read it all year long). It keeps the NHC and meteologists in check. I enjoy the technical discussions here, which are better than any newscast I've ever seen. Dr. masters has a lot to do with it, since he has a lot of first hand experience.

BTW, historically storms have formed out the "season" months of June - November. So it wouldn't be a record if a TS formed in May..
...I've been on here a few times, and until today, haven't seen the word "tutt" before...wasn't he an Egyptian king? WTH is a tutt? (please, and thanks!)
Stormpetrol

Small world, I also live in South Sound !
I agree the wind pattern this year has been very strange. Mostly out of the NE around 20 mph or more for about 4 months. Recently, they switched to S or SE bringing very hot and extremely dry conditions. Low tide in South Sound is not unusual this time of year though

What I am paying attention to is how the high pressure ridge sets up in the Atlantic once the season starts and shear levels. This week the high looked exactly like 2004 Sept when we got Ivan, stretching all the way across the ATL. However it is too soon IMO to draw any firm conclusions.


Tropical Upper Tropospheric trough ( TUTT )
Thanks, kman!!!
You're welcome
moonlightcowboy

here is a good explanation of TUTT

Link
gotta run for a bit

bbl
Evening All!

How's it going cowboy, been awhile!
hello everyone
Hi Storms

Kinda quiet now on the blog. I guess the posters have exhausted all the pre season topics like global warmimg LOL
Please... No global warming debates... They're all the same.
Welcome aboard rts
evening everyone!
Posted By: Dakster at 3:31 PM EDT on April 29, 2007.
Ligthning10,

From your lips to god's ears on the slow season. Although, a "slow" season where I get hit with one hurricane, is still a bad year for me.

I see that as proenza states, we are learning, since Hurricane preparedness week is a little earlier now in May instead of June. I remember the hurricane preparedness fair in 2005. The first storm was threatening before the fair...

About South Florida, no rain in sight, drought, fires, and water restrictions... Blame the SFWMD (South Florida Water Management District). Apparently they decided last year to release billions of gallons of water out of Lake Okeechobe becuase it was supposed to be an acive season and they worried about flooding. I know hindsight is 20/20, but they did this in 2000/2001 the last round of water restrictions. The same forecast, the same thing happened. Granted, this is better than the Dikes failing along the Lake, but you'd hope they wouldn't drop the Lake like in 2000. I won't second guess the experts, but someone has to come up with a better way to do this. Instead of dike failure, we may lose our potable water supply which could be just as devastating as the Dike failures. Today's Miami Herald had a nice article about it.

So if the Hurricane Gods are listening, NO HURRICANES, but feel free to send a bunch of rain our way.



Hindsight is 20/20 Dak! Personally, I think they made the right move! Ernesto, a weak little storm that passed over us, directly over Lake O. Had Ernesto not stayed over Cuba so long, it would have been a much more powerful storm, as forcast. Had Ernesto been a more formidable Hurricane, and lake levels were left where they were, it would have devastated the area and our water supply. Alot of people were very wrong about last year! In the situation, I think the SFWMD made the right move!


Very impressive for so early in the year
wow that is impressive ..... well im off goodnight
What's up BT, good to see ya!
Posted By: hurricane23 at 6:27 PM EDT on April 29, 2007.
Quite times may continue till mid july if the current trend continues.One main reason iam looking at is the strong tutt that is located over the central and eastern atlantic currently.Also i would like to add there is currently 40-50kt shear across most of eastern atalntic from the african coast to parts of the caribbean.I think the main factor here that might hold off any early development will be the tutt being well established as it is.Things can change but the way i see it things we might be shapeing up for a slow start.Adrian

Also quick note i dont see any progress towards La nina from looking at the sub-surface.Iam not 100% sold on any nina taking shape this summer.


I agree with the shear and a July(More Normal) start, although, most pre-season or early season storms form in the West Caribbian and Gulf of Mexico! CATL and East Atlantic won't come into play until late July or Early August!
Evening TCW. Good point about June/July storms
Evening SJ! SFL is supposed to be kicking into our summer pattern this week, according to the locals. If it lasts, it would be early! Usually we don't see this until the 2nd week of may or early June!
291. V26R
Question for the crew who may be familiar with Covents and deed restrictions,
What happens if those trialer parks are on the fringe areas of the WX service radio coverage
and require an outdoor antenna, and that same
Trailer Park has these restrictions on outdoor antennas, Has the Indianna State Legislators thought this into this new law? Anyone Know?
Mike
Take a look at the radar out of Del Rio, TX. Eagle Pass is in the crosshairs yet again...pray for them.

Link
Hey Kman.... you watching already? SSTs off the Rock are 86+ already. Hi all
something wicked this way comes tornadic event high risk poss f3 for sou central and nor central texas radar showing some good sign at this time
295. V26R
Looka Like Eagle Pass, Texas has gotten Mother Nature Mad again

Link
296. V26R
Del Rio now showing a F0 Tornado on the ground
just North of Eagle Pass, Tx

Link
texas is getting it but i dont think we going to get it here in South Louisiana looks like that weathermaker is weakening before arriving here
is it just me or all these factors such as impulses coming off the african coast and sst are unusually heightened for this time of year?
If one of these strong impulses comes off the African coast pretty strongly there is a pocket of nice hot water right off the african coast do you think maybe...just maybe...if one of these storms hits that hot pocket of water that something could go down
Del Rio now showing a F0 Tornado on the ground

F0 is the storm ID, not the strength of the tornado; it could be an F5 for all I know (storms are ID'ed with numbers starting from A0 to Z0, then A1 to Z1, etc).
301. V26R
There was a TVS associated with the F0
marking
also saw it from another site, just didn't post the other site
That TVS associated with the F0 marking has disappated abit
Mike
302. V26R
444 the wind shear over that part of the Atlantic is still way too high for anything to form that comes off thr African coast right now
303. V26R
Sure wish the Mexicans would put up some radar sites in that area to watch for the big boomers that form down that way
dont look

lol
305. V26R
Morning Taz, isn't that the infamous eddie that spawned something that creamed FLA not too long ago?
Let's hope they've all got weather radios.
308. V26R
Amazing amounts of Lightning for this time of night

Link
might be seeing the first Pacific storm soon.



these troughs are barely phasing the High, definitely not going to have a repeat of last year.

Come see my blog
U.S. didn't use most foreign Katrina aid
Posted by Washington bureau April 29, 2007 4:38PM


Unable to deal with an unexpected outpouring of post-Katrina assistance, Washington did not accept most donations from other governments. ...

By Bruce Alpert
Washington bureau

WASHINGTON -- Only a small fraction of the more than $800 million in Hurricane Katrina assistance offered by foreign governments was used by federal agencies, according to documents released Sunday by a private watchdog group.

Rejected were the offers of foreign governments to send medical teams, search-and-rescue units, body bags, bottled water, food, fuel and even offers of specially trained rescue dogs from Poland, according to documents obtained by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. Also turned down or stalled by bureaucratic delays were offers of two cruise ships by the Greek government for use as medical facilities and to house workers and displaced residents.

The United States didn't have a system to process so many simultaneous offers of assistance, and if another disaster of the scale of Katrina occurred, it still would be unable to accept most aid, said Melanie Sloan, CREW's executive director.

"I'm afraid the same thing would happen again," Sloan said in an interview Sunday in which she called for congressional investigations. "It's been nearly two years since Katrina, and still the government doesn't have a mechanism in place to deal with offers of foreign assistance."

The foreign aid snafu was first reported Sunday in The Washington Post. The Post said that the United States turned down 54 of the 77 offers from three of its biggest allies, Canada, England and Israel. CREW obtained the documents under the Freedom of Information Act

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said Sunday that the United States "frankly is not accustomed to receiving large-scale foreign assistance offers." But she said many of the offers of help, especially money, ended up going to private charities, such as the American Red Cross and the fund managed by former Presidents George H.W. Bush and Bill Clinton.

In the end, Rice told ABC News, the United States used a lot of the assistance, including some from the poorest nations in the world.

Much of the problem, according to the documents, rested with the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which was already overwhelmed trying to coordinate the U.S response to Katrina and couldn't decide what offers of foreign aid to accept and reject.

"It is getting downright embarrassing here not to have a response to the Estonians on food relief -- everyone at FEMA is swamped, but at this point even a 'thanks but no thanks' is better than deafening silence," one State Department e-mail writer said.

Given the desperation of thousands of New Orleans residents waiting on rooftops to be rescued, Sloan said it's hard to understand why the United States wouldn't have accepted more of the offers from countries ready to dispatch search-and-rescue teams to the Gulf Coast, or the offer of cruise ships from Greece to house displaced residents and rescue workers.

Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., chair of the Disaster Recovery Subcommittee, promised to ask hard questions of administration officials about the foreign aid problems.

"Louisiana and the Gulf Coast deserve better," Landrieu said. "And while we did not seek handouts, a hand up was and remains sorely needed." She promised to "get to the bottom of how this administration could so foolishly turn away an outreached hand in a time of such desperate need."

In some cases, particularly for medical workers and search-and-rescue teams, government officials raised liability concerns about the foreign volunteers.

Concerning the cruise ships, some U.S. officials, according to the released State Department memos, had concerns about the boats' sprinkler systems and whether they could arrive soon enough to be helpful. Ultimately, the government turned down the Greek offer, and contracted with Carnival Cruise Lines to provide two large ships at a cost of about $249 million.

In all, the U.S. government says it has committed about $125 billion to emergency response and recovery efforts for Hurricanes Katrina and Rita.

"Given the situation we were facing with so many people in need, you would have thought that the government could have worked around some of the concerns raised by the agencies," Sloan said. "Even if we decided that we needed ships sooner to handle the emergency workers, we still had a lot of homeless people who could have stayed on the cruise ships offered by the Greek government."

FEMA and other government agencies were worried about huge bottlenecks if specific plans hadn't been made to distribute donated materials.

"There is the potential for an unmanageable logistical back-up to occur at the US Air Base at Little Rock, where foreign hurricane assistance will most likely be directed," a State Department memo said.

"If a foreign flight arrives with assistance relief, but that assistance has not been approved, bottle-necks can quickly occur as Little Rock has limited storage."

Even with so much aid being rejected, some of the materials that did get through weren't properly handled. The State Department released several e-mails in which officials discussed what to do about medical supplies, including gauze from Italy that was left unusable after being "exposed to the elements."

"I think we need to come clean with the Italians, tell them we blew it, deeply appreciate and regret handling of this and let them know about disposal," a State Department official wrote a colleague in October 2005. "The flip side is just to dispose of it and not come clean. I'm willing to be persuaded. Thoughts?"

According to the State Department, most foreign nations understood the problems the United States had in processing so many donations. Still, the United Kingdom was critical of delays in acceptance and the relaying of logistics information, CREW said.

Bruce Alpert can be reached at bruce.alpert@newhouse.com or (202) 383-7861.
morning all! :)

looks like a mini-blob off of Honduras/ Nicaragua........

maybe an old frontal boundary?



Thelmores where did u get that zoomed in imagery
lol

notice that low over Texas and the blob off of honduras
got the image here.....

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

love those interactive views! :)
Morning guys :)

That blob is convection generated by a surface trough in the area. There is NO surface circulation if you look on the visible loop.

Posted By: StoryOfTheCane at 2:58 AM AKDT on April 30, 2007.
these troughs are barely phasing the High, definitely not going to have a repeat of last year.


SOTC if you don't mind I need to clear something up. That surface map you have there shows nothing that we want to know. If you're looking for troughs and ridges that will steer hurricanes this year, look at the upper air maps, not the surface. That high that you guys are saying extends all the way across the Atlantic doesn't matter at all because it's the high in the upper atmosphere that matters.

Here's a link to a northern hemisphere 500mb map if you want to see it. Link

Anyway, if you want to find troughs and ridges that will affect hurricanes look either on a map like the one I gave you or the initial images of model runs. The surface map tells us nothing.