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Weather and mortality

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:21 PM GMT on February 27, 2009

Hurricanes, earthquakes, and tornadoes get the attention-grabbing headlines when a natural disaster kills people in the U.S. Yet heat waves, cold winter weather, severe thunderstorm winds, and flooding all killed more people in the U.S. between 1970 and 2004, according to a December 2008 article published by Kevin Borden and Susan Cutter of the University of South Carolina. Tornadoes and lightning were tied for fifth place, and Hurricanes and earthquakes tied for eighth place. However, had this study extended one more year into 2005, the roughly 1800 hurricane deaths from Hurricane Katrina would have vaulted hurricane deaths into third place, behind heat wave deaths and cold weather deaths. The study also showed that people living in rural areas were most likely to die from a natural disaster than those living in cities.


Figure 1. U.S. deaths due to natural hazards between 1970 and 2004 showed that weather associated with extremes of hot and cold weather, along with severe thunderstorm winds (the "Severe Weather" category), killed the most people. Image credit: Spatial patterns of natural hazards mortality in the United States, International Journal of Health Geographics. Authors: Kevin Borden and Susan Cutter of the University of South Carolina.

The authors used Spatial Hazard Event and Loss Database for the United States (SHELDUS)(available at http://www.sheldus.org). This database provides hazard loss information (economic losses and casualties) from 1960-2005 for eighteen different hazard types, and is primarily based on data from the NOAA/National Climatic Data Center publication, "Storm Data". The numbers have high uncertainty, and the authors conclude, "There is considerable debate about which natural hazard is the most "deadly". According to our results, the answer is heat. But this finding could be changed depending on the data source, or how hazards within a data source are grouped."


Figure 2. U.S. deaths due to natural hazards for the 10- and 30-year period ending in 2007, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Image credit: NOAA.

To illustrate, a 2008 study by Thacker et al. called, "Overview of deaths associated with natural events, United States, 1979-2004", concluded that cold deaths were twice as common as heat deaths in the U.S. However, they noted that the 1995 Chicago heat wave, which killed between 600 and 700 people by some estimates, was not properly represented in the data base used in their study. This data base attributed only 50 deaths in the entire state of Illinois to heat in 1995. The authors conclude that their data base "under-reports the actual number of deaths due to severe heat".

Another example: NOAA plots up annual natural hazard deaths from the same source ("Storm Data") as the first study I montioned. Their statistics for the ten-year period ending in 2007 show a much different picture (Figure 2). Heat deaths are a much more dominant source of mortality than cold and winter storm deaths, by a factor 3.5. The take-home message from all this is that heat- and cold-related extreme weather are probably the deadliest weather hazards in the U.S., but we really don't know the proportion of people killed by each. One can easily cherry pick the study of one's choice to show a desired result.

How global warming might affect heat and cold-related deaths
If the globe continues to warm up this century, as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), heat-related deaths will increase and cold-related deaths will decrease (duh!). Unfortunately, that's about the most intelligent thing one can say about the matter. The 2007 IPCC report (section 8.4.1.3, Heat- and cold-related mortality), does not attempt to estimate the numbers, saying, "Additional research is needed to understand how the balance of heat-related and cold-related mortality could change under different socio-economic scenarios and climate projections."

This high uncertainty in future heat- and cold-related deaths does not stop advocates on either side of the global warming issue from cherry picking results from selected studies to support a particular point of view. For example, opinion columnist George Will stated in a recent Newsweek column: "In Europe, cold kills more than seven times as many as heat does. Worldwide, moderate warming will, on balance, save more lives than it will cost--by a 9-to-1 ratio in China and India. So, if substantially cutting carbon dioxide reverses warming, that will mean a large net loss of life globally." Will bases his arguments on Danish statistician Bjørn Lomborg's controversial 2007 book, "Cool It: The Skeptical Environmentalist's Guide to Global Warming." However, as pointed out by Danish biologist Kåre Fog, who has assembled a large web site dedicated to pointing out the errors in Lomborg's books, the huge number of excess deaths attributed to cold by Will and Lomborg are in large part because the death rate naturally rises in the winter: "Old and seriously sick people have less vitality in the dark season. It is too bold to say that the excess deaths during the dark part of the year are `deaths due to excess cold?. There is no evidence that a warmer climate will alter the seasonal variation. These people would soon die in any case, even if winters became warmer. Indeed, cold and warm climates, like Finland and Greece, have approximately the same seasonal variation in mortality." The IPCC underscores this problem, stating: "projections of cold-related deaths, and the potential for decreasing their numbers due to warmer winters, can be overestimated unless they take into account the effects of influenza and season".

Heat wave deaths are subject to a degree of uncertainty as well. It is somewhat of a subjective call if an elderly person who dies during a heat wave died primarily as a result of the heat, or of a pre-existing heart or respiratory condition. Complicating the diagnosis is the fact that air pollution is at its worst during heat waves, and can also be blamed as the cause of death in some cases. Different studies will use different criteria for classify deaths due to heat, pollution, or pre-existing medical conditions during a heat wave, leading to widely varying estimates of mortality. For example, the European heat wave of 2003 is blamed for 35,000, 52,000, or 70,000 deaths, depending upon the source. You're more likely to hear the higher 70,000 figure quoted by advocates of doing something about global warming, and the 35,000 figure quoted by those opposed.

The three 2008 studies for the U.S. show the ratio of cold deaths to heat deaths ranges from 2:1 to 1:3, which is very different from the 7:1 and 9:1 figures quoted by Will and Lomborg for Europe, India, and China. I don't trust any of these numbers, since heat and cold mortality statistics are highly uncertain and easy to cherry pick to show a desired result. It is rather unproductive to argue about how many people die due to heat and cold in the current climate or in a future climate. Excess heat deaths due to climate change should not get as much attention as the potential for death due to reduction in crop yields due to increased heat and drought, regional collapses of the oceanic food chain from the steady acidification of the oceans, and the wars these conditions might trigger.

For more information
For those interested, Kåre Fog also presents a list of the errors in Al Gore's book and movie, An Inconvenient Truth, and has a Comparison of error counts between Al Gore and Bjørn Lomborg. Lomborg has assembled a Short reply to Skeptical Questions to respond to some of Fog's criticisms, but does not answer Fog's criticism on cold deaths vs. heat deaths. Suffice to say, one should be wary of trusting climate change information from either source, or from opinion columnists, or from politicians. Blogs can also be a questionable source of climate change information, though I think wunderground Climate Change blogger Dr. Ricky Rood is one of the most knowledgeable and unbiased climate change experts in the world. Though imperfect, the best source of climate change information is the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The level of scientific collaboration and peer review that went into that document is one of the most remarkable achievements in the history of science, and the IPCC was fully deserving of the Nobel Prize awarded to it last year. Blogs and books like Lomborg's and Gore's have not gone through peer-review by scientific experts on climate change, and will have far more errors, biases, and distortions of the truth than the IPCC reports.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

post 500.....WOW!!!!!! I would have bet against them finding anyoine alive....
Quoting jerseygrl:
My DS measured 8" here in Freehold, NJ, but it was still snowing. I'd say about 9-10" total. Not sure what the "official" amount is. All I know is, it's TOO DAMNED MUCH!!!

Dreaming of spring...
spring will be sprung soon
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
maybe a webcam later for me i got to get a laptop with wireless connection so i can link it to my apartment computer from the roof to the first floor to set one up its a lot of cash just to have a cam up there but i have a friend that has a old laptop i need only for the cam software and link to view


Do you really need it on the roof, or can you point it out a window and get the same? The drives are all you need if you have a cam and compatible service.
More detailed story on the boat:

Link
Quoting stillwaiting:



WOW!!!,pretty cool for that price,I'll be getting one before TC season starts,probably in a month or so...surfmom could get live beach conditions,might even hook up A webcam!!!


The plan right now is to find a decent yet inexpensive webcam to use as a weather/pond cam
Quoting Orcasystems:


The plan right now is to find a decent yet inexpensive webcam to use as a weather/pond cam
Link

This can give you a flavor. If you look at any distance, you will need to step up to an optical zoom ( digital degrades the picture quality) and a glass lens. Megapixel+ would be preferred for good quality, but check their specs. Some get creative with their chips vs output.
Quoting Ossqss:
Link

This can give you a flavor. If you look at any distance, you will need to step up to an optical zoom ( digital degrades the picture quality) and a glass lens. Megapixel+ would be preferred for good quality, but check their specs. Some get creative with their chips vs output.


I guess I should have said a bit more.. wireless/outdoor. I know all about indoor ones.
Quoting Orcasystems:


I guess I should have said a bit more.. wireless/outdoor. I know all about indoor ones.


ChaChing !

I use an IP addressable DVR and high res exterior cameras with a PTZ ( pan, tilt,zoom ) coming soon. It can be linked as necessary to any site and accessed anywhere in the world. I use it for security and observation when out of town and Gator patrol in the back yard. Good luck.
Does anyone know where i could find a good webcam to use like during a hurricane .
Quoting Ossqss:


Do you really need it on the roof, or can you point it out a window and get the same? The drives are all you need if you have a cam and compatible service.
i plan on keeping it with the station on a 360 degree rotatable flat disk got to be wind proof to at least 200 kmh and waterproof as well iam going to point the cam sw to view cn tower in the core with moveable options at any time

that way orca can see the centre of the universe at any time he wants
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i plan on keeping it with the station on a 360 degree rotatable flat disk got to be wind proof to at least 200 kmh and waterproof as well iam going to point the cam sw to view cn towerr in the core with moveable options at any time

that way orca can see the centre of the universe at any time he wants



Hmmmmm oh boy :(
Quoting stillwaiting:



WOW!!!,pretty cool for that price,I'll be getting one before TC season starts,probably in a month or so...surfmom could get live beach conditions,might even hook up A webcam!!!

shhhh!!!! I am suppose to be typing work -- I just slide over here for a brief worklurk peek whiles he's deep in business yak.... OMG Stillwaiting -- take your pick mango's, eggs, limes, kayak -one for fishing, surfboards -- will trade for wave information -- eeekk caught red handed LOL -- I'm off
hey i could wire ya in to the building cams 16 of them but iam not allow to do that then you really get to see some strange stuff
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
hey i could wire ya in to the building cams 16 of them but iam not allow to do that then you really get to see some strange stuff


I don't even want to consider what the COTU would consider strange.. you big city people are weird to begin with.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i plan on keeping it with the station on a 360 degree rotatable flat disk got to be wind proof to at least 200 kmh and waterproof as well iam going to point the cam sw to view cn tower in the core with moveable options at any time

that way orca can see the centre of the universe at any time he wants


ChaChing ! here ya go. No need for the flat disk with this. Link
dont worry orca nothing strange it will be only a weather web cam with my local skyline its 200 ft up i hope to use it most for lighting storms to record that thats my true intention
station goes up by march 20 cam goes up maybe first day of summer my wife says ya it will get stuck by lighting the next day o well that the chance ya take
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
station goes up by march 20 cam goes up maybe first day of summer my wife says ya it will get stuck by lighting the next day o well that the chance ya take


Remember, no matter what you do, you will need a power supply of some sort. I put these up ( not this specific one) in many places, and with proper grounding, dont have issues with lightning.
the tower is old from the old antenas from tv service which has since been removed leaving the old tower which is grounded to the building constuction so it should be ok had an electrican over said it passes code so good to go maybe call him back once its all hooked up
ya got power the tower is in centre loc along side elvator room power in that room and its heated as well the tower goes over the room roof by 4 feet as its attach to side of room so on the roof of the room it will be installed at the top to ground level it will be 220 feet
anyway i got to go be back later
Australian authorities closed schools and national parks, and sent out warning text messages to millions of cellphones amid fears that conditions in the south are ripe for wildfires.


Sounds like temps should be a little cooler than Black Saturday but the winds higher.
NEW OUTLOOK POSTED:
South Florida StormWatch
& it begins... Massive ice shelf collapsing off Antarctica

*NC Snow Totals*

Beech Mountain = 15inches < Top 5 Highest

My house in Wilkes County = 4inches

Brushy Mountains,Wilkes County = 13inches

Many areas around here got a good 5-10inches. Areas of blowing snow knocked out power to the city of Greensboro. ALL major school systems were closed today in my viewing area.
It returns the winter for the Cubans. It is expected a cold day Tuesday with temperature from 19 to 20 C in the western North coast.

Dow -300.75 -4.26% 6,762.18
NASDAQ -54.67 -3.97% 1,323.17
S&P -34.82 -4.74% 700.27
usually not on here until hurricane season but is the wildfire chances serioues for S Fla or is this common?
Anyone?

btw it really doesn't get colder than that in Cuba 66 degrees im sure it htis upper 50s once per season.
Quoting Vortex95:
usually not on here until hurricane season but is the wildfire chances serioues for S Fla or is this common?


No it is very serious.....these freezes have caused dead brush and wildfires to feed!
Quoting Vortex95:
usually not on here until hurricane season but is the wildfire chances serioues for S Fla or is this common?


As someone who live in south florida it's more common during the summer but since we haven't had rain in a long time and low humidity the fire threat a more severe now.
So this wildfire season could be dangerous to urban areas for S Fla?
vortex , ya it could
Quoting Vortex95:
usually not on here until hurricane season but is the wildfire chances serioues for S Fla or is this common?


Our dry situation is likely to only get worse as southern florida continues under the influence of a la nina pattern.Its been a crazy winter down here for sure but unfortunately the parade of cold-fronts has brought very little in the way of precip which is quite common in this pattern.

Quoting TampaSpin:
Dow -300.75 -4.26% 6,762.18
NASDAQ -54.67 -3.97% 1,323.17
S&P -34.82 -4.74% 700.27


Yup checking on how the world did (Link) we were bound to go past the 7000 barrier.... next up the hypothesized 6500 barrier break through (as I see alot of comments on the WSJ say we're gonna get past there)
Hopefully nothing huge will happen then, thank you for the info.
The cold front in the Cuban Eastern end.
oh lol no wonder that is cold for there.
Wildfires, vanishing ice, disintegrating 001k's, showstorms, cold weather in FLorida again!!!!! This is getting to be too much to take. Economic weather or natural the mortality rate is going up fast.

Is there any good news out there????????????
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE, CAT 1 (10U)
3:50 AM WDT March 3 2009
==============================

At 3:00 AM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, Category One [998 hPa] located at 13.5S 107.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east-northeast at 5 knots.

Storm Warning
==============
Storm Force Winds within 35 nautical miles of centre by 0000 UTC 03 March with very rough to high seas and moderate swell.

Gale Force Winds within 80 nautical miles of centre with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 13.9S 107.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 14.5S 107.1E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 16.6S 102.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 20.0S 097.4E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=====================
Deep convection near the LLCC collapsed after 12Z and despite vertical shear of around 15 knots the system is struggling to maintain deep convection near the low level centre. Both the amount and the organisation of deep convection is poor. By 15Z the DT had dropped to around 2.0 as a result of collapse of significant convection near the LLCC but FT is limited by rules and CI is maintained at 3.0 despite evidence from the quikscat pass at around 11:14Z that indicates the system does not have encircling gales. The system may respond to the diurnally favourable period after 18Z.

The system is expected to track generally southwest over the next three days. TC oceanic heat content is not particularly high at present and will become a significantly limiting factor by Thursday.
The Florida Panthers could be going to the playoffs? :D

I Doubt the wildfires would affect metro areas most likely areas near the everglades or deep inland areas with forrest at least in S Fla. But there is always a chance.
Quoting Vortex95:
The Florida Panthers could be going to the playoffs? :D

I Doubt the wildfires would affect metro areas most likely areas near the everglades or deep inland areas with forrest at least in S Fla. But there is always a chance.


5 teams vying for 3 spots and within 3 pts with less than 20 games to go. They stand a good chance.
Quoting Ossqss:


5 teams vying for 3 spots and within 3 pts with less than 20 games to go. They stand a good chance.


Ya the penguins are gonna get one of the playoff spots lol
Quoting Hurricane4Lex:


Yup checking on how the world did (Link) we were bound to go past the 7000 barrier.... next up the hypothesized 6500 barrier break through (as I see alot of comments on the WSJ say we're gonna get past there)
its going to 5500 then buy buy buy but for now its dump dump dump
Quoting hahaguy:


Ya the penguins are gonna get one of the playoff spots lol


Being a Pens fan -- I hope so --
Quoting IKE:
Here's some good news with the economy...consumer spending rises in January

Maybe that will help the market.
Hey, Ike, that's all the money Bahamians and other Caribbean people spend in S. Florida and NY/NJ after Christmas. . . . lol
Quoting Ossqss:
Wildfires, vanishing ice, disintegrating 001k's, showstorms, cold weather in FLorida again!!!!! This is getting to be too much to take. Economic weather or natural the mortality rate is going up fast.

Is there any good news out there????????????


Yea,
Its gonna warm up later thi week as that ridge at the surface slides to my east and gives me some moderateing temperatures and higher humidity but no rain because of that damm ridge in the upper levels thats gonna park right over us.
CRIME AND MURDER ESCALATING IN GALVESTON TX

Just like NOLA, crime and murder is on the increase after hurricane. Econonomy is gone on the island and Galveston especially Bolivar are falling through the cracks....
Quoting Vortex95:
Anyone?

btw it really doesn't get colder than that in Cuba 66 degrees im sure it htis upper 50s once per season.
It does get into the upper 50s at night on about as regular a basis in Cuba as it does here in the Bahamas. Of course, like here, it's regional; i.e. NW portions of Cuba near Havana are more likely to experience the colder weather than, say Guantanamo. Likewise SE Bahamas rarely gets below 60, even at night.
Quoting RitaEvac:
CRIME AND MURDER ESCALATING IN GALVESTON TX

Just like NOLA, crime and murder is on the increase after hurricane. Econonomy is gone on the island and Galveston especially Bolivar are falling through the cracks....


Actually the crime is way down from where it was Pre-Katrina.Since most of the Projects have been cleaned out and demolished.
Quoting BahaHurican:
It does get into the upper 50s at night on about as regular a basis in Cuba as it does here in the Bahamas. Of course, like here, it's regional; i.e. NW portions of Cuba near Havana are more likely to experience the colder weather than, say Guantanamo. Likewise SE Bahamas rarely gets below 60, even at night.


What is the coldest temperature recoreded in Havana,Cuba?
Quoting Ossqss:
Wildfires, vanishing ice, disintegrating 001k's, showstorms, cold weather in FLorida again!!!!! This is getting to be too much to take. Economic weather or natural the mortality rate is going up fast.

Is there any good news out there????????????


Well, good news is we know what started it.

From the NY times in 1999:
"In a move that could help increase home ownership rates among minorities and low-income consumers, the Fannie Mae Corporation is easing the credit requirements on loans that it will purchase from banks and other lenders.

The action, which will begin as a pilot program involving 24 banks in 15 markets -- including the New York metropolitan region -- will encourage those banks to extend home mortgages to individuals whose credit is generally not good enough to qualify for conventional loans. Fannie Mae officials say they hope to make it a nationwide program by next spring.

Fannie Mae, the nation's biggest underwriter of home mortgages, has been under increasing pressure from the Clinton Administration to expand mortgage loans among low and moderate income people and felt pressure from stock holders to maintain its phenomenal growth in profits. "

From here: http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C0DE7DB153EF933A0575AC0A96F958260
Quoting atmoaggie:


Well, good news is we know what started it.

Huh???
[scratches head]

This started wildfires and ice melt & stuff???
Howdy Gang... 5" plus here in Upstate SC... Waiting for the refreeze tonight.. Will update later as we are very very busy here...
557. P451
Quoting stillwaiting:
p451:Its hard to get accurate snowfall w/such windy conditions,I'm sure you know what your talking about,I can remember these type of storms growing up in SECT,should be a good solid blanket of 10" accross the 95 corridor!!!..enjoy the snow P451!!!!!,with any luck maybe I'll get a little something when I'm up in NYC next week!!!


Yeah, it's never an exact science, but I think I did a good job eliminated the high and low measurements. I think we ended up with 13-14" total. It's over now, it's cold as hell, it will probably stick around until Friday at best.

When the girl comes back with my camera tomorrow I'll get some pics. It shouldn't do anything but settle a little tomorrow. Too cold to melt.

Meanwhile, here's the updated Totals. I'm 2 miles south from Colts Neck in Monmouth and 1 mile NW of wall.

...MONMOUTH COUNTY...
COLTS NECK 13.5 1200 PM 3/2
WALL 13.0 1120 AM 3/2

So, there ya go, nice big storm!

Temps have been falling here since shortly after 4pm. Wonder if we'll dip as low as 55. . . .

Later, ya'll.
That was a nice snowfall I don't think we've had a snow day in march here ever. If I'm lucky they'll take tomorrow off as well.
Protest on clean-coal and AGW in DC today. Cannot seem to find any pics for some reason.

http://www.greenmuze.com/community/activism/866-mass-disobedience-in-dc.html

Could be the late-season heavy snow...ahh, the irony. Want it cold? Plan a protest in favor youknowwhat hypothesis. Yes, I know the difference between weather and climate, but the average memory for a NY Times reader only goes back to their last visit to the store with food stamps.

Official GA snow totals:

Athens, GA 6.5"
Atlanta, GA 4.2"
Columbus, GA 6.5"
Macon, GA 1.0"

Official SC snow totals:

Greensville-Spartanburg Airport 4.2"

Official NC snow totals:

Asheville, NC 2.0"
Charlotte, NC 4.0"
Piedmont-Triad airport: 5.7"
RDU airport: 3.2"
Gabrielle looks to be pulling her COC under her explosive convection. Lotta white on rainbow for such a young system, par to the new norm..
thats pretty amazing stuff,snowfall in the south in March
Dow finishes below 7,000 for first time since '97
More unstoppable selling on Wall Street takes Dow to lowest point since 1997


NEW YORK (AP) -- A relentless sell-off in the stock market Monday blew through barriers that would have been unthinkable just weeks ago, and investors warned there was no reason to believe buyers will return anytime soon.


AP - Peole walk to work in the snow as they pass the flag-draped New York Stock Exchange Monday, March ...
The Dow Jones industrial average plummeted below 7,000 at the opening bell and kept driving lower all day, finishing at 6,763 -- a loss of nearly 300 points. Each of the 30 stocks in the index lost value for the day.

And the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, a much broader measure of the market's health, dipped below the psychologically important 700 level before closing just above it. It hadn't traded below 700 since October 1996.

Investors were worried anew about the stability of the financial system after insurer American International Group posted a staggering $62 billion loss for the fourth quarter, the biggest in U.S. corporate history -- and accepted an expanded bailout from the government.

But beyond daily headlines, Wall Street seems to have given up the search for a reason to believe that the worst is over and the time is ripe to buy again.

"As bad as things are, they can still get worse, and get a lot worse," said Bill Strazzullo, chief market strategist for Bell Curve Trading, who said he believes the Dow might fall to 5,000 and the S&P to 500.

The Dow's descent has been breathtaking. It took only 14 trading sessions for the average to fall from above 8,000 to below 7,000. For the year, the Dow has lost 23 percent of its value.

Its last close below 7,000 was May 1, 1997 -- a time when the market was barreling to one record high after another because of the boom in technology stocks, but often suffered big drops as investors worried about inflation and rising interest rates.

This time around, Wall Street analysts seem to believe that a stock market recovery will first require signs of health among financial companies, and on Monday those signs seemed further away than ever.

AIG, whose reach is so vast that the government warns letting it fail would cripple the very world financial system, will get another $30 billion in loans on top of the $150 billion already invested by the government.

HSBC PLC, Europe's largest bank by market value, said it needs to raise about $18 billion, reported a 70 percent drop in earnings for last year, and announced plans to scale back U.S. lending and cut 6,100 jobs.

The banking sector helped drive the market lower. Citigroup stock lost 20 percent of its value and fell to a paltry $1.20 per share. HSBC lost 19 percent. Bank of America lost 8 percent.

While the root of the problem for the financial firms is the bad bets they made on mortgages and mortgage-backed securities, now the recession is exacerbating their problems, forcing job cuts.

"The economy definitely has deteriorated since November," said Sean Simko, head of fixed income management at SEI Investments. "It's just the fact that we haven't seen signs of improving or stabilizing, per se, which is adding to the morass of the market."

Mixed economic readings provided little reason to expect a turnaround. Personal spending and incomes both rose for January, but construction spending fell 3.3 percent, more than twice what economists expected.

And coming later this week is much bigger, and more unnerving, data. The government on Friday will report the national unemployment rate and job losses for February. Those figures have been worse month after month.

So far, the economic readings and news coming out of financial companies are still so alarming that investors feel no alternative but to sell.

"I don't think we find a bottom in the market until we see some sort of increased level of optimism and confidence among consumers and investors," said Jim Baird, chief investment strategist at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.

Both the Dow and the S&P have lost more than half their value since the market peaked in October 2007. In that time, about $11 trillion in wealth has vanished, according to the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index, which tracks nearly all stocks traded in America.

Last week, the Dow and the S&P 500 fell below the levels they had reached Nov. 20 and 21 -- to that point their lowest since Lehman Brothers imploded in September and set off the financial meltdown.

Investors had hoped those levels might mark a market bottom, but it hasn't happened.

Big-name investors are just as cautious. Billionaire Warren Buffett predicted in his annual letter to investors Saturday that "the economy will be in shambles throughout 2009 -- and, for that matter, probably well beyond." He cautioned that did not determine whether the market would rise or fall.

And even when the market finally reaches a bottom, it probably faces a long, long recovery.

"We do feel that things can improve, but it is going to be years before we get back to levels we saw in the markets a year ago," said David Chalupnik, head of equities at First American Funds.

All I have to say is OUCH reguarding the stockmarket.
Quoting SevereHurricane:
All I have to say is OUCH reguarding the stockmarket.


Unfortunately, we have not hit bottom. 5k and 500 is not out of the question.
atmo~ the protest wasn't at the white house it was at the Capitol Hill Power Plant. Built near a 100 years ago to power capital hill. It can run on gas or oil but people have fought had for it to run on coal, so it does. Even though that causes the most health problem due to air pollution of the 3. It wasn't so much AGW but anticlean coal.. which doesn't even exist.. Here's a pic.
Quoting Skyepony:
atmo~ the protest wasn't at the white house it was at the Capitol Hill Power Plant. Built near a 100 years ago to power capital hill. It can run on gas or oil but people have fought had for it to run on coal, so it does. Even though that causes the most health problem due to air pollution of the 3. It wasn't AGW but anticlean coal.. which doesn't even exist.. Here's a pic.


Big turnout. 4 activists and 2 cops and one propeller?
Horrible day Economic and weather wise.


NASA Looks at Hurricane Cloud Tops for Windy Clues Link



Hot towers are one window into the mystery of how hurricanes grow stronger. A single hot tower does not tell you much about a hurricane, but a rapid sequence of towers suggests that something unusual is going on deep inside the hurricane.

By combining measurements from many hurricanes, statistics show that if hot towers exist in the eyewall at least 33% of the time during a three-hour period, a hurricane's destructive surface winds have an 82% chance of intensifying. Otherwise, the chance of wind intensification drops to only 17%. The bottom line is that if several hot towers are present in a hurricane over a period of time, there's a higher probability of a storm intensifying.







571. JRRP
??

Link
Quoting Patrap:


NASA Looks at Hurricane Cloud Tops for Windy Clues Link



Hot towers are one window into the mystery of how hurricanes grow stronger. A single hot tower does not tell you much about a hurricane, but a rapid sequence of towers suggests that something unusual is going on deep inside the hurricane.

By combining measurements from many hurricanes, statistics show that if hot towers exist in the eyewall at least 33% of the time during a three-hour period, a hurricane's destructive surface winds have an 82% chance of intensifying. Otherwise, the chance of wind intensification drops to only 17%. The bottom line is that if several hot towers are present in a hurricane over a period of time, there's a higher probability of a storm intensifying.







Patrap, was it Wilma that intensified the fastest or was it Gilbert or Mitch? i recall 50 mb in a 12 hour period, but cannot remember which it was.
Been so Many Record Low Pressure falls from the last few Years,..its hard to sort that one out.

But Im sure we will get some quick feedback.
Records set in the Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005 Link

Seasonal Records Set in 2005:

Most tropical storms: 28. Old record: 21 in 1933.
Most hurricanes: 15. Old record: 12 in 1969.
Most Category 5 hurricanes: 4 (Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma). Emily was upgraded to Category 5 upon re-analysis. Old record: 2 in 1960 and 1961.
Most hurricane names to be retired: 5 (Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Stan, Wilma, and possibly others). Previous record: 4 in 1955, 1995, and 2004.
Most major hurricanes to hit the U.S.: 4 (Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma). Previous record: 3 in 1893, 1909, 1933, 1954, and 2004.

Most damage ever recorded in a hurricane season: $150 billion. Previous record: approximately $50 billion dollars (normalized to 2005 dollars) set in 1992 and 2004.

Highest Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) index: 245. Previous record: 243 (1950). Average for a season is 93.

Latest end to a hurricane season: January 6 Previous record: January 5, for the 1954-55 hurricane season.
LOW 1004 HPA NEAR 09S 76E MOVEMENT WEST 10KT
There it is. Wow, 97 mb in 24 hrs. Huge.

Fastest intensification ever by an Atlantic hurricane: Wilma. Wilma's pressure dropped 97 millibars in 24 hours Previous record: Gilbert (1988) dropped 72 mb in 24 hours. Wilma's pressure fell 54 mb over six hours, beating Hurricane Beulah's drop of 38 mb in six hours in 1967. Wilma's 12 hour pressure fall of 83 mb beat the old 12 hour pressure fall record of 48 mb set by Hurricane Allen in 1980.
There is pictures of hordrs of people & I am tempted to post sign after sign. Thought a demenstrator that brought a backhoe deserved showing was all. Protesting doesn't really do it justice I guess. Coal is sickening people with it's air pollution. The EPA recently linked it with cancers. China has said it is causing the big rise in birth defects there. It is about the dirtiest~ right under ethenol from corn (ethenol from switchgrass is most productive & cleanest of the biofuels~ way better than oil or gas even, but big AG don't want you to know that). With clean renewable fuels available (it's not an urban myth Germany & Australia are having great luck with it) & other less polluting resources, even oil~ there is no reason to be causing billions in health costs, making people sick & dead to power homes. With clean coal, all of Appalachian could look like this one day. (this one is right next to an elementary school & was protesting how BoA is in on it too)



Ike boil water notice lifted for Bolivar Peninsula

© 2009 The Associated Press
March 2, 2009, 10:44AM

BEACH, Texas — A boil water advisory in effect since shortly after Hurricane Ike hit Bolivar Peninsula has been lifted as rebuilt supply lines return service to normal.

A statement from the Bolivar Peninsula Special Utility District says customers are no longer required to boil water prior to consumption.

Samples tested by the Galveston Health District found no harmful bacteria in the water supply.

Utility general manager Jennifer McKnight said Monday that state officials did not want the boil water order lifted until all lines were back in service, or disconnected.

McKnight told The Associated Press that the utility currently has about 1,800 customers, compared to 6,200 connections prior to Ike.

Water supply lines had to be rebuilt throughout Bolivar Peninsula, parts of which were swamped when Ike made landfall Sept. 13. The boil water order had been in effect since Sept. 15.

The Bolivar Peninsula Special Utility District, serving High Island, Gilchrist, Caplen, Crystal Beach and Port Bolivar, lifted the boil water notice Saturday.
Speaking of hot towers, it was interesting to view storms on NOAA's land based radar last season. The main thing that struck me was that the echo tops were mainly at about 21,000 feet give or take. Garden variety summer thunderstorms around Houston can top out at over 40,000 feet. There would be echo tops in the tropical storms at 35-45,000 feet, but they would not last long, similar to Houston's thunderstorms. I suppose those were the fabled hot towers.
First FEMA housing site to open on Bolivar Peninsula

Jennifer Heathcock: Link

IMAGES:Link

It's been nearly 6 months since hurricane Ike's wind and surge caused destruction across the Gulf Coast.

Now a FEMA Manufactured Housing Site is getting ready to open on the Bolivar Peninsula.

The High Island School District played a key role in bringing the site to the community.

That's the sound of workers finishing up construction at the FEMA Manufactured Home Site on the Bolivar Peninsula.

"Lots of paperwork and that's it's why 6 months out of the storm," says Paula Quick, the Superintendent of High Island ISD.

In addition to the usual red tape, the location of the site was a factor in how long it's taking to open and get families settled in the 51 homes.





Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Technical Bulletin
TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE, CAT 1 (10U)
9:50 AM WDT March 3 2009
==============================

At 9:00 AM WDT, Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, Category One [998 hPa] located at 13.5S 107.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east at 5 knots.

Gale Warning
==============

Gale Force Winds within...
30 nautical miles in NE quadrant
80 nautical miles in SE quadrant
80 nautical miles in SW quadrant
80 nautical miles in NW quadrant

with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS: 14.0S 108.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 14.4S 106.6E - 30 knots (TROPICAL LOW)
48 HRS: 16.0S 101.5E - 25 knots (TROPICAL LOW)

Additional Information
=====================
Pulsing deep convection in southern quadrants remains removed from exposed LLCC by around 60 nm. TPW morphed animation shows an incursion of drier air into western and northern sectors of the TC which combined with persistent NE vertical wind shear has prevented intensification overnight. The well-defined LLCC continued to move towards the east during past 6 hours under influence of low-level westerly flow to its north, however, a strengthening ridge to the south is expected to cause recurvature towards the southwest within the next 12 hours.

Dvorak analysis shows weakening over the past 24 hours, with DT=2.0 based on shear pattern. FT=2.0 but CI maintained at 2.5/3.0. Further weakening is forecast to below TC intensity within the next 24 hours due to low oceanic heat content and the incursion of dry air, however, a temporary intensification may be possible tonight as the system is forecast to move under the upper ridge axis
with decreasing vertical wind shear.
Quoting Ossqss:
Patrap, was it Wilma that intensified the fastest or was it Gilbert or Mitch? i recall 50 mb in a 12 hour period, but cannot remember which it was.


Wilma won that record.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Wilma won that record.


I can still remember waking up in the middle of the night to see what wilma was doing and when I saw she was at 882mb and 185mph i was like wtf lol.
Quoting Skyepony:
There is pictures of hordrs of people & I am tempted to post sign after sign. Thought a demenstrator that brought a backhoe deserved showing was all. Protesting doesn't really do it justice I guess. Coal is sickening people with it's air pollution. The EPA recently linked it with cancers. China has said it is causing the big rise in birth defects there. It is about the dirtiest~ right under ethenol from corn (ethenol from switchgrass is most productive & cleanest of the biofuels~ way better than oil or gas even, but big AG don't want you to know that). With clean renewable fuels available (it's not an urban myth Germany & Australia are having great luck with it) & other less polluting resources, even oil~ there is no reason to be causing billions in health costs, making people sick & dead to power homes. With clean coal, all of Appalachian could look like this one day. (this one is right next to an elementary school & was protesting how BoA is in on it too)



So tell me, what do we do with the trillions of dollars in capital investments that make life easier for everyone. Like, electricity and all of the fancy health care equipment and medicines? Let alone all of the people monitarily bolted on to those gov and business initiatives. Things will not change for years and I certainly dont oppose exploration of new and better ways for just about anything. But reality is what it is. Perhaps the new economic emergency will get peoples priorities in line with reality. Most of the big dollar liberals will be impacted by the policies our new admin has pushed out, just like the rest of us. When their monies get low, they will stop funding the freeloading activists who are probably still sucking the money from ma and pa while in their 40's. Don't get me wrong. I want the best for this country, but that is not going to come from the minority interests driven by virtue of being brainwashing by those who you trust, who lie. Just look at most of the kids in this country sitting behind joysticks or keyboards their whole life. Don't keep score for it may hurt someones feelings if they lose. That is not how nature made us and that is not how America made us. Time will tell the whole story very clearly. Ok, sorry for expressing my view, but I am tired of the misslead doing the leading in this country.

I now step down from the soapbox.

And now on to the Accuweather weather.
It can run on gas or oil but people have fought had for it to run on coal, so it does.


It still runs on coal because that is how it was originally designed Skye.





NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite reveals a remarkable feature in this 3-D cat scan of Hurricane Rita - a pair of gigantic chimney clouds reaching more than 11 miles high. That is equivalent to 60,000 feet, or twice as high as a commercial airplane's cruising altitude. TRMM observed these hot towers in Hurricane Rita on September 19, 2005 during a period of brief intensification. Credit: NASA/JAXA

NASA page with animations Link




Quoting Patrap:




NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite reveals a remarkable feature in this 3-D cat scan of Hurricane Rita - a pair of gigantic chimney clouds reaching more than 11 miles high. That is equivalent to 60,000 feet, or twice as high as a commercial airplane's cruising altitude. TRMM observed these hot towers in Hurricane Rita on September 19, 2005 during a period of brief intensification. Credit: NASA/JAXA

NASA page with animations Link




I once read that a thunderstorm near orlando reached 70,000 Ft. I still dont think that is possible is it?
WGN Weather Center Blog


Highest thunderstorm tops

Dear Tom,
You are always telling us how high the thunderstorm tops are. What is the
highest top ever recorded in the Chicago area and in the world?
Bill Matthews, Schaumburg


Dear Bill,
As a general rule of thumb, the higher the thunderstorm top the more severe
the thunderstorm is likely to be. Storms with the highest tops tend to form
in areas of greatest lift where the atmosphere is most volatile.
In the
Chicago area, garden-variety summer thunderstorms develop to heights between
35,000-45,000 feet, but the tops of severe thunderstorms here can approach
60,000 feet and in extreme cases 70,000 feet. The top of the thunderstorm
that produced the Plainfield tornado on Aug. 28, 1990, towered to 65,000
feet.

The tallest thunderstorms on Earth have been documented in the tropics
where tops have been measured to about 75,000 feet, building more than 14
miles up into the atmosphere.


Posted by wgnweather on July 25, 2008 10:41 PM | Permalink
Q: How tall can a thunderstorm get?

A: Thunderstorms, which are clouds that grow vertically in the atmosphere, have been measured as high as about 70,000 feet. But most top out between 30,000 and 50,000 feet. The tropics consistently have the tallest thunderstorms, though periodic severe and tornadic thunderstorms outside the tropics usually are intense enough to grow taller than 50,000 feet.

WOW, 75,000 ft. ª¿ª
Awsome vid. I think I saw UFO's in there too.
Commercial Jets at altitude leaving Vapor trails..are hardly UFO's,..LOL



Green gone Bad here.

I believe you will find they are meteor's. They went directly over the storm, which looks to be fairly tall in the distance. From what we just discussed, they would have to be flying much higher that capabilities would allow. Typically, jets don't leave a visible light trail behind them, even in timelaspe at night. Just my take.
CUL8R ª¿ª
Quoting JRRP:
??

Link


WOW I see that!
Maybe it will become Subtropical before the front reaches it??? Its drifting to the SW...
560. atmoaggie "...the average memory for a NY Times reader only goes back to their last visit to the store with food stamps."

How many Aggies does it take to eat an armadillo? Three. One eats while the other two watch for cars.

How many Aggies does it take to launch a boat?
598.

Amazing. I didn't realize that area got flooded so badly from Ike. The video said it was the worst in its history. I'm surprised it surpassed Andrew.
Quoting KoritheMan:
598.

Amazing. I didn't realize that area got flooded so badly from Ike. The video said it was the worst in its history. I'm surprised it surpassed Andrew.


Andrew moved quick and was rather compact.
vort~ The article had put it that coal had lobbied hard to switch it back to coal even though it had been reworked to burn either of the three.

Oss~ I too hope this situation we are in now brings priorities & realities in line.
For those of you that want to move to Cuba.. Hot, humid, and sticky all the time? REALLY?? Isn't a nice cold blast once in a while refreshing?
Anyone here familiar with climatic determinism?
Quoting natrwalkn:
For those of you that want to move to Cuba.. Hot, humid, and sticky all the time? REALLY?? Isn't a nice cold blast once in a while refreshing?


No. >_>
Quoting KoritheMan:


No. >_>


To each his own, I suppose. I'd like to go further north, myself. Wilm, NC is too hot and humid for me and I'd like more snow and cold in winter. I just can't imagine living in a sauna all the time with no relief!
Y'all must be Yankees and grew up with cold.
It's a nice, crisp, 25 in Wilm, NC right now. I dread the humid days with skeeters eating you alive as soon ad you step out the door!
OMG!! Bug season is coming!
Morning -- how can it be 43 degrees to greet me?? Colder this morning then last -- North winds AT 15 mph -- you have to be a polar bear to surf in this.....
Quoting Ossqss:


Unfortunately, we have not hit bottom. 5k and 500 is not out of the question.
I heard someone say a couple of months ago (before Christmas, actually) that based on what they were seeing they didn't expect the market to bottom out until it got down to around 5000. At the time I was skeptical; now, it actually seems possible. That's slashing the market value by 1/2 in a little over 6 months.
Quoting natrwalkn:
For those of you that want to move to Cuba.. Hot, humid, and sticky all the time? REALLY?? Isn't a nice cold blast once in a while refreshing?
Hey, for some of us, hot, humid sticky all the time is actually normal weather. We wouldn't know what to do with ourselves if we had to deal with any more of a cold blast than we're already getting!

lol
Quoting surfmom:
Morning -- how can it be 43 degrees to greet me?? Colder this morning then last -- North winds AT 15 mph -- you have to be a polar bear to surf in this.....
Morning, surf. It was 59 here when I got up this morning, which is why I haven't left for work yet LOL. Don't want to have to get out my hat with the ear-flaps and my gloves . . . lol

I agree it's too cold to surf at 43 degrees. Brrr.
I just did a quick scan of low temps at Nassau since Nov. 2008, and for this winter season we've had 11 days where the temperature dipped below 60 degrees. The coldest was 53 on Jan. 23. This has been a relatively cold winter for us, with low temps often falling below the 64 degree average.

Someone was asking about low temps in Cuba, and I'm sure some similar data can quickly be gleaned from their weather website.
While technically not tropical weather, it is international geography.

Check out International Hangman.
Quoting surfmom:
Morning -- how can it be 43 degrees to greet me?? Colder this morning then last -- North winds AT 15 mph -- you have to be a polar bear to surf in this.....


Imagine and pray for the 3 missing boaters still in the GOM,which is about 65 degrees,the one thing 2 of them have going for them is they are football players and they should have increased stamina, but over 60hrs in that kind of water our prayer w/be the only thing that keeps them alive and we have the worlds best search and rescue the coast guard on the job,the boat was found about 30 miles west of johns pass up in st pete,but they said the wind and current would push them south and east towarrds OUR shoreline....although 30 miles out to start with is long way from the coast if you've ever been that far out you know what I'm talkming about...
Hurricane Center developing Web tool to predict risk to homes

By Curtis Krueger, Times Staff Writer: Link
Tuesday, March 3, 2009

ST. PETERSBURG — When hurricanes hit, it's often the water that kills.

So the National Hurricane Center is making it easier for people to learn if a hurricane is likely to cause seawater to surge into their homes. They soon will be able to find out at the Web site www.hurricanes.gov.

"If you have a Category 3 coming in, you can figure out, 'Am I at risk?' " said the center's director, Bill Read, who is in St. Petersburg to for a federal hurricane conference.

For example, if your house is at 10 feet above sea level, you'd probably want to evacuate from an incoming storm that threatens to raise seas 15 feet above sea level. On the other hand, if your house sits at 20 feet above sea level, you might decide to stay put during that storm, depending on local recommendations.

In a worst-case storm in the Tampa Bay area, swelling, unstoppable seas could rise more than 20 feet above low-lying parts of St. Petersburg, Tampa or Oldsmar.
618. P451
You know for a storm that wasn't heavily dramatized it sure dumped a heck of a lot of snow with widespread 10"+ amounts in about a dozen states. Check out all the southern state measurements in addition to the mid-atlantic. Quite a storm.

Link
So sad about the players.
I grew up on the water and understand how dangerous boating can be.
Surprised they would go out that far in such a small craft!
I'm afraid they're is little or no hope for them at this point.
"If the globe continues to warm up this century, as predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), heat-related deaths will increase and cold-related deaths will decrease (duh!). Unfortunately, that's about the most intelligent thing one can say about the matter."

I found this statement somewhat annoying. While yes, the average temperature will rise due to "global warming", one of the side effects will be a wider spread in the extremes, as well as more and more intense storms. These more intense storms will include ice related events, with higher snow falls and lower temperatures.

So, we'll see how things go. But the simplicity implicit in "cold-related deaths will go down, heat-related deaths will go up" is quite annoying.
The sad fact about the boating incident,..is that one click of a NOAA radio,..the Boaters would have known a Marine Warning was in Effect as the front approached.

Sadly,..they didnt check the weather or ignored the warnings.
Gabrielle

click to animate
Coast Guard news conferece at 10 est on the missing boaters.
625. GBlet
Good morning from the dustbowl! I have been here 12 years and never seen drier winter. I'm becoming worried as to what effect this could have during the spring storm season. The last few years we have had a higher number of storms and they seem to be way more intense! I am really not in the mood for another Greensburg.
626. GBlet
Hey! Do I have cooties?
627. GBlet
I'm gonna need a public defender please. I am being accused of killing the blog!
627. Don't worry. I think we're all just busy at the moment.
619. Patrap 9:31 AM EST on March 03, 2009
Coast Guard finds one man clinging to boat

It was plenty rough that day Saturday), even on 16 mile long Lk. George in a 22' bass boat. Lost some parts off the boat, but made it back. I could have made the 2 miles to shore, but then there's the gators... Another Captain that wanted me to go out to the Gulf Stream in a 21' (in fair weather) took umbrage when I inquired if he had an EPIRB. He didn't, and I didn't go.

The next day, I was running a paved rec trail, but stopped and went the other way when the trail entered a huge stand of old mossy Oaks. The wind was gusting to gale there along the lake. Those limbs are a lot bigger up close - I have seen what they can do to houses. Didn't want to be found under a tree.
Would that be wind, "mass movement", or just plain old bad luck?
Bad Luck,circumstance..and failure to be aware of ones surroundings.
We have HUGE Oaks here in NOLA..big sprawling ones. And the Joggers around here know,..if the wind blows,limbs will fall. Especially weakened limbs from the LAst 3 cane seasons.
Its unfortunate that every lifevest,dont have a EPIRB.
I used to service Revere Life Rafts and an epirb is the ONLY way to be found in dire water circumstances.
Latest info on the boaters. Link
Quoting Patrap:
Hurricane Center developing Web tool to predict risk to homes

By Curtis Krueger, Times Staff Writer: Link
Tuesday, March 3, 2009

ST. PETERSBURG — When hurricanes hit, it's often the water that kills.

So the National Hurricane Center is making it easier for people to learn if a hurricane is likely to cause seawater to surge into their homes. They soon will be able to find out at the Web site www.hurricanes.gov.

"If you have a Category 3 coming in, you can figure out, 'Am I at risk?' " said the center's director, Bill Read, who is in St. Petersburg to for a federal hurricane conference.

For example, if your house is at 10 feet above sea level, you'd probably want to evacuate from an incoming storm that threatens to raise seas 15 feet above sea level. On the other hand, if your house sits at 20 feet above sea level, you might decide to stay put during that storm, depending on local recommendations.

In a worst-case storm in the Tampa Bay area, swelling, unstoppable seas could rise more than 20 feet above low-lying parts of St. Petersburg, Tampa or Oldsmar.

What a sobering thought - and of course the lack of precisely being able to predict storm surge is another factor. Were I close to shore and 10 feet elevation, I'd be bopping out early to some nice high ground to wait and see what happened. I've seen so much unpredicted damage that I wouldn't wait around based on a "best guess" which is pretty much what we have to deal with. But still - some predictive ability is better than none. I've been offline for a while. How are y'all doing?
I feel pretty badly for the families of the guys that are missing in the water...

This is why i tell everyone on my boat that they MUST have a lifejacket on AT ALL TIMES...sometimes there is no time to get one on AFTER the fact that something happens. A lifejacket doesn't do the boat much good...
634. P451
Quoting melwerle:
I feel pretty badly for the families of the guys that are missing in the water...

This is why i tell everyone on my boat that they MUST have a lifejacket on AT ALL TIMES...sometimes there is no time to get one on AFTER the fact that something happens. A lifejacket doesn't do the boat much good...


I hear you on that. Last time I went out on a boat the first thing I did was put on the life jacket. I got laughed at. I said, what good is it, if you're in the water, boat upside down, and you can't swim to shore and you can't stand, and the lifejackets are securely tucked into a compartment on the upside down boat? Then what?

Nobody had anything to say but nobody follow suit putting one on. Of course, nothing happened, but had it? I'd been the only one to live that day. It wasn't the nicest day.

People....are just idiots. Simple as that no sugar coating it when it comes to boating. Idiots.

Accidents happen, they're tragic, but if you're unwilling to give yourself the best chance to survive before any potential accident, then well I don't know what to say in terms of pity. Not much.
Interesting section on encounters with rogue waves on the wiki site. Quite the eye opener.

Link
Father: Coast Guard losing hope of finding players

The families of two NFL players and a third man lost at sea watched as the search entered its third day Tuesday, with odds stacking against their hope the Coast Guard could still find survivors in a chilly sea.

Bruce Cooper, the father of Oakland Raiders linebacker Marquis Cooper, said the Coast Guard told him privately that officials were losing hope because of the timeframe and possibility of hypothermia. But free-agent lineman Corey Smith's sister, Yolanda Newbill, said they were still hearing otherwise.

"That is not what is being communicated to us," she said, adding that the family is still "definitely optimistic" about the search.

Coast Guard officials wouldn't publicly speculate, but officials say hypothermia can set in after 18 hours in 64-degree water. Water temperatures were in the mid- to upper-60s.

"With all of these men being past, present football players, they do have a much larger physique than a lot of people," Petty Officer Robert Simpson had said. "So their odds are going to be definitely in their favor."

The lone survivor so far is Nick Schuyler, who was conscious but appeared weak as he was loaded onto a stretcher after being rescued Monday. His father, Stuart Schuyler, said the former University of South Florida player was bruised and dehydrated. A hospital official said Tuesday he was in fair condition.

Schuyler told rescuers the boat flipped as they were pulling up the anchor Saturday evening, Coast Guard Capt. Timothy M. Close said. None were wearing life vests at the time, but they managed to swim under the boat, grab the vests and put them on, he said.

Close said the men were able to stay together for awhile, but somehow got separated. Schuyler had propped himself on top of the boat and was hanging on to the hull when he was found about 35 miles off Clearwater.

Close said Schuyler provided some information that allowed them to refine their search.
636. Ossqss

That is interesting. Won't spend too much time thinking about it (or wear a life jacket at all times on a cruise). I guess that rare hazard falls under "geophysical".
We will be raffling off 2 Midland NOAA Weather radios during the wunderground sponsored NOLA Portlight Relief Walk March 21st.

Portlight Relief Walks Link



One in the morning at the end of the Speakers, and one after the Walk during the entertainment.

WR-100 NOAA Weather Alert Programmable Radio



Midland WR100 Public Alert Weather Radio with SAME has an innovative warning system that automatically activates when severe weather or other emergencies threaten your local area!
This desktop Public Alert Certified Weather Radio from Midland eliminates false alarms and notifies you of alerts for tornadoes, hurricanes, ice and snowstorms, floods and much more.

Featuring SAME (Specific Area Message Encoding) technology which allows entry of up to 25 county codes, this affordable emergency weather radio allows you to filter out distant weather alert broadcasts and centralize your reception to only local counties.

The weather radio also has backlighting for easy night viewing; a telescoping antenna; digital clock in 12-hour format; and is powered by an AC adapter with battery backup. The weather radio also receives 24-hour National Weather Radio forecasts and bulletins.



Features:
Public Alert Certified Weather Radio
Automatically activates when emergency alert received
Monitors all seven NOAA emergency alert weather channels
User selects siren, flashing light or voice alert mode
Attractive and affordable weather radio is perfect for the home or office
Receives NOAA warnings of severe weather and environmental dangers
SAME technology allows you to filter out non-local emergency alerts
Allows entry of up to 25 county codes
Monitors National Weather Radio broadcasts of local forecasts and regional conditions
Attractive silver and black radio case with telescoping antenna
Reception range from 25 to 50 miles depending on geographical conditions
90-decibel siren with flashing visual alert and LCD message display
Time and alarm clock function
Backlight engaged for 5 seconds by pressing and releasing any button
Includes digital alarm clock with time and date
Alarm with snooze function
Low battery indicator
External antenna and accessory jacks
Power source is AC adapter (included)
Portable use requires 3 AAA alkaline batteries (not included)
One-year limited warranty from manufacturer
SAME county codes
User Manual
634. I always wear one - if you get hit in the head with the boom and are knocked out...kind of hard to try to get your lifejacket if you're unconscience. Better safe than sorry...if people want to make fun of me or give me a hard time for taking the necessary precautions, then they don't get on the boat with me. Just my one rule on the boat besides "have fun."
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
636. Ossqss

That is interesting. Won't spend too much time thinking about it (or wear a life jacket at all times on a cruise). I guess that rare hazard falls under "geophysical".


Absolutely wear one. I do't venture off shore anylonger after I got a good look at the large sharks up close and personal. I only fish the shallow waters for Red, Snook, Tarpon etc. Last time off shore, we were escorted by a Hammerhead that was nearly as long as the 23' boat we were in. The locals call him hitler. Life jackets are in the same vein as kids with helmets on bikes etc. No choice, you wear it or you dont go.
We do a lot of boating on Lake Powell - Many times have seen small boats full of kids - family members, looking overloaded - not a life jacket in sight. We get sudden summer thunderstorms and several times a goodly number of small boats swamp and sink. Especially for the kids - our rule is (even on our big barge-like houseboat) - If you are on the deck you wear the jacket. There are some very comfortable ones out there.
WOW!!!,there was a 91 foot rauge wave durning hurricane ivan in 04....
Quoting stillwaiting:
WOW!!!,there was a 91 foot rauge wave durning hurricane ivan in 04....


There were reports of waves when he was in the gulf as high as 130ft tall.
A short clip of the type of weather we endure at this time of year, huge waves batter the Dunbar platform in the North Sea in Dec 08. A massive wave hits at 0:40 secs into clip

Quoting Skyepony:
Gabrielle

click to animate


COC Exposed, but you can see convection firing to the north. Might rap in if that shear tappers off some.
645. Was that a fireball below the rig when the wave hit?

I recently had a discussion as to wether or not there were oil spills in the GOM due to the destruction of oil rigs. Are you aware of any spill attributed to rigs capsizing or sinking during hurricanes?
Nope looks like light reflecting off of the spray.
Could global warming be a factor in the world economic downturn? Early 20th century climate determinist Ellsworth Huntington wrote that if rapid climate change ever occured it would lead to a breakdown of civilization in the more prosperous countries and the savages of the tropical latitudes would be more pernicious. The warmer climate would cause those in the mid-latitudes to lose the mental energy to defend againd these savages(terrorist). Could countries like Canada and Russia emerge as the new world powers in a warmer world?
Hurricane Gustav Creates Numerous Small Oil Spills in the Gulf -- Response Team Works to Save Oiled Brown Pelicans Link
At least 33 oil spills ranging from simple sheens to 8,000 gallons plagued Louisiana in the aftermath of Hurricane Gustav. Most of the oil spills were sheens, not slicks, so were of minimal wildlife concern.
Although not as severe an impact as the eight million gallons spills resulting from the Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, one Hurricane Gustav incident coated numerous brown pelicans.
Wow that wave shook the whole boat
All of the Hurricanes of 08

651. Patrap 4:33 PM EST on March 03, 2009

Hey Pat...Not sure if your're still around but I got a nice taste of NO this past Sunday evening when I went to a concert, here in Tallahassee, to see Dr. John and the Neville Brothers............Awesome Show (and we've been rather chilly here lately with temps in the lower 30's when the show ended around 11:00 PM....Brrrrrrrr
Seeing The Good Dr..and the Neville Brothers always a treat.
Glad ya had a good time,they really bring da music.
656. P451
We got 14" officially. It settled a bit since yesterday but it's not going anywhere for a while.

P451, nice pics where do you live?
Late rain offers blessed relief to Victoria's firefighters
Article from: Herald Sun

Staff writers

March 04, 2009

PATCHY rain has brought relief to firefighters, but wind gave the SES a busy day across the state.

Fire authorities said only prolonged heavy rain would quell the fires burning across Victoria, and the fire threat is still very real for some parts of Victoria.

The State Emergency Service reported a busy day yesterday, however, with 452 call-outs around the state, including 307 in Melbourne.

Sixty per cent of the calls were about trees that had come down and 25 per cent were about building damage.

CFA state duty officer Tony Bearzatto said yesterday’s downpour had brought a new set of challenges for firefighters.

“We’ll continue to patrol and put out any hotspots but it may be difficult in some areas because conditions have become more slippery and in some areas may make it difficult to conduct a back burn,” Mr Bearzatto said.

“There hasn’t been enough rain to say that the season is over and everything is completely safe.

“There is still potential for smoke and fire so people need to remain alert, however, this rain has certainly provided some relief and slowed things down.”

Driving rain was welcomed by firefighters in Healesville, which they said would significantly help the firefighting effort.

Firefighter Damien Beeby was literally singing in the rain.

"Any rain is good," he said." As long as it keeps going like this."

Melbourne was battered by ferocious wind up to 125km/h yesterday, but blazes stayed within containment lines.

The SES had about 370 calls about fallen trees on roads and downed powerlines.

SES spokeswoman Simone Myers said most had come after noon, as strong wind built from the west.

Of those, 270 came from metropolitan Melbourne, with areas of the Dandenongs, the outer eastern suburbs and Frankston worst hit.

CBD workers were urged to leave for home early amid fears the wind and possible power failures could cause havoc to peak-hour traffic.

But by 7pm, Connex reported the train system was running to timetable.

About 10,000 customers were without power last night in Powercor's region, covering most of the state's west.

Two wind-related power faults disconnected 3200 customers in the area between Horsham, Dimboola and Natimuk. Blackouts also hit Colac and Bacchus Marsh.

About 700 customers are without power in the SP AusNet electricity distribution area, which covers most of eastern Victoria.

Most customers were expected to be online again by late last night.

The gusts forced hundreds of firefighters to watch rather than tackle the huge blazes on Melbourne's eastern fringe.

Helicopters were also grounded for most of the day as sticks and other projectiles were hurled through the sky.

Fire crews in the Yarra Ranges sent to protect homes and communities spent most of the day waiting at Wesburn with trucks, bulldozers, graders and helicopters grounded because of the wind.

"We can't let our strike teams go out in the bush, it's too dangerous," CFA divisional commander Brian Halit said.

While the worst fears failed to materialise by 6pm, Premier John Brumby warned Victorians to brace themselves.

"This is going to be a significant storm event and we've done well today," Mr Brumby said. "But the message from all of the authorities is the worst is yet to come and the next few hours are really crucial.

"We've got through today - all things considered - very well indeed."

The SES is expecting a busy few days cleaning up the aftermath of the strong wind that hit Melbourne last night.

The wind gusting at up to 125km/h also increased the threat to the isolated settlement of Woods Point, on the Great Dividing Range.

CFA spokesman Frank Colverson said fire on the Warburton Highway precinct had been kept within containment lines.

"We've been extremely lucky," he said.

The CFA also hoped the fire threatening towns including Reefton, McMahons Creek and Warburton in the Yarra Ranges had been dealt with
659. P451
Quoting severstorm:
P451, nice pics where do you live?


Good old suburban NJ. Monmouth County.
Quoting P451:


Good old suburban NJ. Monmouth County.


That looked like it felt in Sarasota this early AM. BRRRRRRRR
The GFS model has been forecasting a possible severe storms sometime next week over the midwest.
I'm getting excited already

The atmospheric dynamics akin to what we saw about 3 weeks ago. The GFS model is expecting an amplifying shortwave to set up near Oklahoma. This is still a while from now, however. I am remaining conservative for the time being.
Has anyone viewed a Tornado first hand?
Quoting Ossqss:
Has anyone viewed a Tornado first hand?

Mhm, took this picture.
Quoting Ossqss:
Has anyone viewed a Tornado first hand?


There was a tornado in Miami that went through downtown and into Biscayne Bay. I was in a building a block over on the 17th floor watching it. Mesmerizing
Quoting P451:


Good old suburban NJ. Monmouth County.


Hi P451 - my daugther was born in Monmouth County, we lived there for 3 years. I really liked the area.
Quoting CybrTeddy:

Mhm, took this picture.


Wow, uH , that kinda looks like it could have been moving towards you !!!

I still await the opportunity again. I have seen a funnel cloud, happend to drive through a small water spout on the Skyway bridge (not a fun experience) and had one go over the house during Charlie, could hear the roaring anyhow. But not the real thing yet. Maybe thats not a bad thing.
Quoting Ossqss:


Wow, uH , that kinda looks like it could have been moving towards you !!!

I still await the opportunity again. I have seen a funnel cloud, happend to drive through a small water spout on the Skyway bridge (not a fun experience) and had one go over the house during Charlie, could hear the roaring anyhow. But not the real thing yet. Maybe thats not a bad thing.


Your braver than me, if I had seen the water spout coming I'm sure I would have had a melt down. Never did like that bridge.
i heard the weather was not the cause of the boating accident. they were pulling up the anchor and flipped over. anyway hopefully this hurricane season does not amount to anything. happy weather
Quoting zoomiami:


Your braver than me, if I had seen the water spout coming I'm sure I would have had a melt down. Never did like that bridge.


Not much choice. 0 visibility and a Truck on my bumper and no emergency lane to pull over. Rain stopped, then blew me across the lanes. Fortunately, the trucks blew first. I thought it was a micro burst until I watched the news and viewed it from a far. I think I could see my enlarged eyes throught the windshield.
Quoting futuremet:
The GFS model has been forecasting a possible severe storms sometime next week over the midwest.
I'm getting excited already

The atmospheric dynamics akin to what we saw about 3 weeks ago. The GFS model is expecting an amplifying shortwave to set up near Oklahoma. This is still a while from now, however. I am remaining conservative for the time being.


I don't blame you for being conservative, although The ECMWF and GFS are in much better agreement now on whats going to happen than they were for the last couple of days. Unfortunatly for me I am stuck with this ULR until atleast Sunday and finally this discusting dry weather will change to a different pattern perhaps a zonal pattern once more.
Quoting zoomiami:


There was a tornado in Miami that went through downtown and into Biscayne Bay. I was in a building a block over on the 17th floor watching it. Mesmerizing


Here's MY PAGE on the miami tornado.
Hi Adrian: I was in a building next to the nbc studio. Transfixed watching it, it hopped right over my car in the parking lot below. Then we could see the glass blowing out in the building on the corner of miami ave and 4th. That's when it finally occurred to me that perhaps it wasn't a good idea to have our noses pressed to the glass to see. When it hit the water, it was amazing, it pulled the water up in a swirl all around it.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Darwin
High Seas Warning
TROPICAL LOW, EX-GABRIELLE
0:50 AM UTC March 3 2009
==============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Low, Ex-Gabrielle [1001 hPa] located at 14.7S 105.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west-southwest at 9 knots.

AREA AFFECTED
==============
Within 100 nautical miles in SE and SW quadrants

Winds 25/34 knots within 100 nautical miles in SE and SW quadrants with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.

Winds are no longer expected to exceed Gale Force in northern quadrants.

Forecast Position
===============
12 HRS: 15.6S 103.2E (1002 hPa)
24 HRS: 16.9S 100.6E (1002 hPa)

Additional Information
======================
Gabriel has been downgraded to a tropical low based on overnight scatterometer data and Dvorak intensity assessments consistently below tropical cyclone intensity. Deep convection, although persistent in the southern semicircle, remains well removed from the LLCC identified on microwave imagery. The LLCC has become less well defined, indicating a slight weakening in the low-level circulation.

Dvorak assessment: DT=2.0 based on 0.3 wrap of band south of LLCC, and separation of >1 degree of LLCC from edge of cold cloud. FT=MET=2.0 but CI held at 2.5.

Ex-TC Gabrielle is forecast to continue moving southwest under the influence of a strong ridge to the southeast and continue to weaken as it moves over cooler ocean waters. Gales are forecast to persist in the southern semicircle due to a strong pressure gradient between the ex-TC and high pressure to the south.

Next High Seas Warning issued by Darwin is at 0700 AM UTC..

--
hmm did not notice Perth stopped issuing the warnings..
Quoting zoomiami:
Hi Adrian: I was in a building next to the nbc studio. Transfixed watching it, it hopped right over my car in the parking lot below. Then we could see the glass blowing out in the building on the corner of miami ave and 4th. That's when it finally occurred to me that perhaps it wasn't a good idea to have our noses pressed to the glass to see. When it hit the water, it was amazing, it pulled the water up in a swirl all around it.


dam that sounds like it would of been a sight to see.
There's not much footage out there of the 97 tornado but i was able to find a small clip.Sorry about the music.

Don't you love computer generated emergency notifications. Had to share this one I stumbled across.

Oh my, dont waste any time looking at the imbedded videos on the bottom after the one shown in my previous post. Technology is a fun thing sometimes.
The 'he' and 'him' referred in the video is Professor T.T. Fujita, the inventor of the Fujita Scale of tornado intensity studied the damage patterns of major hurricanes later in his career and theroized that intense wind damage in the eyewalls of hurricanes was atributed to tornado-like invisible vortexes that he called mini-swirls. And that they are only found in really major hurricanes (like high-end cat. 4 and cat. 5 storms). The video seen here are of Supertyphoon Omar in Guam and Hurricane Iniki in Hawaii (both of which were Catagory 4 and in 1992).

The video of the hipped roof proves out the need for the clips for securing te roof to the structure. Hipped roofs get big discounts on insurance as long as they are attached correctly. At least in FL on the wind mitigation form. Most folks overlook the hard dollar savings they could get by virtue of a wind mitigation inspection ($65) that Florida mandates for discount on insurance policies if you meet certain criteria. At least you can know where you weak links are ! I did it and it saved me $700 per year. Dont overlook the opportunity to save money.
That Video went a long way to securing the Hawaiian Building Codes and others to rectify mandatory reforms in that very area.
Your insurance company assumes the worst until you prove otherwise. Take that to the bank. For real ! My neighbor, who hardend his house. saved over
$1,600 per year after his re-roof and inspection of opening protection. Real dollars and real protection is the key. He feels alot better about thing now. Good luck all.

Quoting Patrap:
That Video went a long way to securing the Hawaiian Building Codes and others to rectify mandatory reforms in that very area.


The loses sustained we directly attibuted to poor construction in the Miami area when Wilma tagged them. The houses built or remodeled under the new code sustained minimal damage. Most of the other older homes did not fair so well. Real dollars mean lower risk to the insurer. If you live in Florida, make it so and you will benefit from the inspection. Its the law to apply discount based upon the inspection itself. No brainer.
Link

Here is the site to get started. There were matching funds, up to 5 grand. Not sure if that still exists. Local inspectors are there if you need them via the phone book.
Quoting futuremet:
The GFS model has been forecasting a possible severe storms sometime next week over the midwest.
I'm getting excited already

The atmospheric dynamics akin to what we saw about 3 weeks ago. The GFS model is expecting an amplifying shortwave to set up near Oklahoma. This is still a while from now, however. I am remaining conservative for the time being.
ya met maybe in a group of 3 mon tue and again thur but for now we should watch how the models perform on this with the warm up comes increasing severe weather threat waiting on gem run at midnight for latest depiction
Quoting Ossqss:
The video of the hipped roof proves out the need for the clips for securing te roof to the structure. Hipped roofs get big discounts on insurance as long as they are attached correctly. At least in FL on the wind mitigation form. Most folks overlook the hard dollar savings they could get by virtue of a wind mitigation inspection ($65) that Florida mandates for discount on insurance policies if you meet certain criteria. At least you can know where you weak links are ! I did it and it saved me $700 per year. Dont overlook the opportunity to save money.
Not only that, but also have a bit more peace of mind about how well your house is likely to withstand a catastrophic hurricane. . .
I must have forgotten how to look at models... but I have looked at the CMC, GFS, NGP, and UKM and they seem to be hinting at something in the next week or so....
hello orca
stayin out of trouble
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
stayin out of trouble


ROFLMAO, nope
Mind you.. watching the Canucks game.
Called my security company today.. they will have a quote for me on a couple outdoor wireless cams by Wend/Thur
been checkin a few myself can not find what iam lookin for
for a reasonable price the wife has me on a limited but what i want is way over theres one that is sweet but its 445 us which will be 600 can its got night vision auto focus water proof with zoom in up to x17 in a sealed housing with dome
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
been checkin a few myself can not find what iam lookin for
for a reasonable price the wife has me on a limited but what i want is way over theres one that is sweet but its 445 us which will be 600 can its got night vision auto focus water proof with zoom in up to x17 in a sealed housing with dome


He mentioned one to me (missed the name).. full weather enclosure, and wireless/internet capable for $400. he is going to send me a quote on it, and a few he may find cheaper.
let me know the prices when you get em
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
let me know the prices when you get em


I will do that.. apparently he has a complete catalogue of them (all security certified)

Actually.. the models do show something.. mid Atlantic...

Link

Speaking of mini swirls. In Hurricane Charley, all over our county you could see damage that was very clearly from rotating wind, not straight line wind. For example, there was a local strip mall close by, and they used to park U haul trucks outside about 100ft in front of the building. There were two trucks approx 15' . After the hurricane, one was in the center of one of the shops, the other neighborhood behind it. How much force does it take to throw a 15' several thousand pound vehicle more than 100'? A lot. There was all kinds of stuff like that in Charley. Trees, not snapped off, but twisted like liquorice( not sure how you spell that) down to the ground. Crazy stuff. Also a local hospital nearby reported: They had an anemometer on the roof. The max reading is 175mph. They reported the anemometer pegged out at 175 and remained there for at least five minutes before the instrument failed. If you look at Charely 150mph + 25mph forward speed=175mph. I truly believe those were sustained winds. Our local em mang director told me that Texas A&M University did a study on Charley and wind gusts were approaching 200 mph in the NE Quadrant of Charley. Did I mention this was my first hurricane?

blockquote class='blogquote'>Quoting Patrap:
The 'he' and 'him' referred in the video is Professor T.T. Fujita, the inventor of the Fujita Scale of tornado intensity studied the damage patterns of major hurricanes later in his career and theroized that intense wind damage in the eyewalls of hurricanes was atributed to tornado-like invisible vortexes that he called mini-swirls. And that they are only found in really major hurricanes (like high-end cat. 4 and cat. 5 storms). The video seen here are of Supertyphoon Omar in Guam and Hurricane Iniki in Hawaii (both of which were Catagory 4 and in 1992).

44 degrees this morning SWFL -- one degree better then yesterday -- I am very thankful for the beverage called Coffee. These cold mornings have made me appreciate my morning cup even more.
14 degrees here in VA, coldest this year, I think.
that was an awesome video futuremet (on the 2008 hurricanes)
Morning all. It didn't get too bad here last night, only to about 62, which is still colder than average. It's only about 63 now - Brrr. . . . lol

Ya'll have a great day!
Cape York low may form into cyclone
Wednesday March 4, 2009

The Bureau of Meteorology says a weak low pressure system that is sitting over the northern tip of Cape York Peninsula could develop into a cyclone later this week.

Forecaster Bill O'Connor says it is slow moving and will deliver more heavy rain to far north Queensland.

He says early indications suggest it may track into the Gulf of Carpentaria or down the eastern side of Cape York Peninsula later on Friday or into Saturday.

"Most of our computer models aren't developing it too deep at the moment, but it really is a little bit of a wait and see game ... for another 24 to 36 hours," Mr O'Connor said.

- ABC
13 contaminated FEMA trailers turn up in Missouri
The Associated Press
Published: March 4, 2009 Link

ST. LOUIS: Thirteen former FEMA trailers deemed unlivable and set for the scrap heap somehow ended up in a mobile home park near St. Louis, where they were close to being offered as housing, a state official said Tuesday.

The trailers, which had been issued after Gulf Coast hurricanes, had high levels of formaldehyde and were to be sold only for scrap, said Missouri Public Service Chairman Robert Clayton. Prolonged exposure to formaldehyde, a preservative commonly used in building materials, can lead to breathing problems and is also believed to cause cancer.

"It is a serious issue, these homes being held out to the public as safe, when they're not," Clayton said.
Quoting Patrap:
13 contaminated FEMA trailers turn up in Missouri
The Associated Press
Published: March 4, 2009 Link

ST. LOUIS: Thirteen former FEMA trailers deemed unlivable and set for the scrap heap somehow ended up in a mobile home park near St. Louis, where they were close to being offered as housing, a state official said Tuesday.

The trailers, which had been issued after Gulf Coast hurricanes, had high levels of formaldehyde and were to be sold only for scrap, said Missouri Public Service Chairman Robert Clayton. Prolonged exposure to formaldehyde, a preservative commonly used in building materials, can lead to breathing problems and is also believed to cause cancer.

"It is a serious issue, these homes being held out to the public as safe, when they're not," Clayton said.


How does that happen? Did they use them as temporary morgues? lol



Meet the watchdog who sniffed out FEMA trailer trouble

Link
By Rick Jervis, USA TODAY

BAY ST. LOUIS, Miss. — Becky Gillette was an unpaid volunteer with the Sierra Club's Mississippi Chapter when she first heard about colleagues waking up in their federally issued trailers with nosebleeds, hacking coughs and headaches.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency had distributed thousands of the aluminum trailers to Gulf Coast residents displaced by the 2005 hurricanes. Gillette heard of babies getting sick and pets, including a co-worker's parakeet, dying in the trailers over several weeks from late 2005 through early 2006.

Drawing on her experience as an activist and journalist, Gillette suspected formaldehyde, a colorless gas used in manufacturing. A colleague had Googled the phrase "testing for formaldehyde" and found a company in Boca Raton, Fla., that would supply test kits and analyze the results. She ordered 32 of the $35 kits and tested trailers along the Gulf Coast. The results were stunning: 30 of the 32 trailers registered unsafe levels of formaldehyde.
Quoting Patrap:
13 contaminated FEMA trailers turn up in Missouri
The Associated Press
Published: March 4, 2009 Link

ST. LOUIS: Thirteen former FEMA trailers deemed unlivable and set for the scrap heap somehow ended up in a mobile home park near St. Louis, where they were close to being offered as housing, a state official said Tuesday.

The trailers, which had been issued after Gulf Coast hurricanes, had high levels of formaldehyde and were to be sold only for scrap, said Missouri Public Service Chairman Robert Clayton. Prolonged exposure to formaldehyde, a preservative commonly used in building materials, can lead to breathing problems and is also believed to cause cancer.

"It is a serious issue, these homes being held out to the public as safe, when they're not," Clayton said.


Just to let everyone know but, every piece of clothing that you buy in retail new has high concentrates of formaldehyde. It is used to prevent milddew for packing and shipping.
I wonder if that is the problem with my fridge. Sometimes I open and close it many times getting a beverage of choice and the next day I wake up with headache.

I would sure like to know what part of the construction was putting out the fumes. Wood, insulation, floor or wall paper glue, cabinets etc.
Great, no place to live and now we have to wear plant life. Thanks for the input, I think.
Good Morning :)
Complete Blog Refresh
Mirror Site



Current Home weather station data.
Quote from an article -- 6-12 months it should be gone from a building? How could it still be in the trailers?

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) reports that formaldehyde is one of the contributors to “sick building syndrome” and that the best solution is to increase ventilation until the building materials have off-gassed to a level that can be tolerated. “Sick building syndrome” (also called “Tight Building Syndrome” or “Indoor Air Pollution”) is a collection of ills that describe situations in which building occupants experience acute health and comfort effects that appear to be linked to time spent in a building, but no specific illness or cause can be identified. When the building materials are new, high indoor temperatures or humidity can cause an increased release of formaldehyde to be off-gassed. These emissions will decrease over time as the formaldehyde dissipates into the environment but it can take six to twelve months.

Besides the building and construction industry, formaldehyde can be found in almost every closet and drawer in a conventional home in some form:

Personal care products – cosmetics, fingernail polishes and hardeners, antiperspirants, bubble bath, bath oils, shampoos, creams, mouthwashes, deodorants and even toothpastes;
Cleaning products and supplies – household cleaners, disinfectants, polishes;
Paper products – formaldehyde resins are used to improve the water resistance, grease resistance, shrink resistance, and wet-strength properties of some paper products such as paper towels, napkins and coated paper products;
Home furnishings – carpet backings and foam in cushions;
Food products – used as a preservative in some foods and in the manufacturing of sugar;
Medicines – used as a preservative in some vaccines given to children and other pharmaceuticals including wart remedies, anhidrotics, medicated creams, orthopaedic casts and root canal preparation disinfectant;
In the garden and garage where formaldehyde can be used in the manufacturing of fertilizers, petroleum, paints, primers and paint-stripping agents;
On the farm, formaldehyde has been used as a fumigant, preventative for mildew in wheat and rot in oats, a germicide and fungicide for plants, an insecticide, and in the manufacture of slow-release fertilizers.
Of course, the level of formaldehyde in individual products is regulated so it doesn’t exceed acceptable levels, but each country has its own manufacturing standards for acceptable levels for formaldehyde resins. The “low level” of acceptable formaldehyde in Japan is 75 ppm (parts per million parts of air), whereas the U.S. “low level” of acceptable formaldehyde is near 300 ppm. Once again, consumer protection from potentially dangerous and toxic chemicals is much less in the U.S. than in many other G7 countries. Sensitivities to formaldehyde, like other toxins, do build up over time and can eventually become a serious health concern.



710. P451
Nice shot of the snow in the mid-atlantic on visible satellite.

click to enlarge



Storm scale may alter
Surges from recent hurricanes show need for more flexibility
Claire Taylor • ctaylor@theadvertiser.com •
February 16, 2009 Link

Scientists from Florida to Colorado are debating the need for a more accurate scale and discussing which of several proposed new scales should be adopted by the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center is not as open to the idea of replacing Saffir-Simpson, though, Landsea said.

A more accurate scale that takes into account storm surge potential is needed because many people don't consider a Category 2 hurricane to be dangerous and refuse to evacuate, Brazzell said.

Mark Powell with NOAA at Florida State University developed a hurricane scale that integrates kinetic energy, basically summing up the force of the wind on the sea surface. Then it relates that to a number between zero and 5.9.










The Oversight Committee holds a hearing, "FEMA's Response to Reports of Toxic Trailers."
The Committee will hold a hearing investigating formaldehyde levels in FEMA trailers provided for victims of the Gulf Coast hurricanes and FEMA's response to these reports. The Committee will hear from current residents occupying FEMA trailers, experts who are familiar with the health impact of formaldehyde, and from FEMA Administrator Paulison.
Formaldehyde is a chemical used in paint and adhesives, and is classified as a "known carcinogen" by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Reports of high formaldehyde levels found in FEMA issued trailers and FEMA's response raise serious public health concerns.
Mary DeVany, an industrial hygienist, explains the danger of formaldehyde and the need for action.



thanks everyone for posting the information on formaldehyde -- gathered the information and put it on my mass e-mailing list -- the more people know about this the better! SPREAD THE WORD!!!

ALSO - any folks from Houston on the blog today--check out SMMCDAVID's blog for information regarding the Portlight.org walk there. Hurricane season approaches -- part of being prepared is supporting this WU grassroots organization that may be offering YOU hurricane aid this season.
G'morning...
Reading the info posted here, makes me want to have my entire house tested! All the toxins, from floor to ceiling - makes one pause and seriously consider working to make the home environment safer.
Thanks for the good info. : )
P.S.

Code and SugarSand are doing a Doggie/People walk for Portlight in Destin.

Thanks Code, SugarSand, SMMCDAVID, and everyone else who are putting together the walks for Portlight!
Out gassing from volatile products is a real threat to ones Health,especially the young and elderly,and folks with Health Problems.

Here is some more info on it from GOOGLE lists.Link
715. Beachfoxx 9:22 AM CST on March 04, 2009
P.S.

Code and SugarSand are doing a Doggie/People walk for Portlight in Destin.

Thanks Code, SugarSand, SMMCDAVID, and everyone else who are putting together the walks for Portlight!












Please keep an eye out for my new line of organic safe Chia clothing. Guaranteed formaldehyde free. Except the fertilizer part. It is truely amazing what we can learn in a give day. Thanks Patrap for the insight.
Thanks surfmom, beach, and pat! We are all doing a great job. Yay for us. Lol... but it's true!
Your doing a Great job taking on a the task at hand smmcdavid.

Just purchased the weather station that keeper of the gate had linked a page or two back,I got it for a great price $139.00 shipped,its got a touch screen panel,and the rain guage has a auto dump feature along with all the other goodies,If anyone is interested I can give you the person who sold me mine on ebay for that low price!!!,now I just have to get a mast to post it on,I already live on the top floor(3rd story)...and I need to do something about potential lightning strikes!!!(I live on the beach in sarasota,fl)
is that a nor'easter on the long range gfs???(about 9 days out)