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Watching two waves

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 6:44 PM GMT on July 26, 2005

The tropics remain relatively quiet today. Franklin continues to barely struggle along, and a few modest tropical waves are moving across the far Atlantic. One of these waves, located near 9N 42W, shows some promise for development. It lies over farly warm 29C waters and has some favorable upper level winds over it. As long as the wave maintains its current west-northwest motion at 15 mph, it will stay over warm water and have a chance to develop. But as you can see from the SST plot below, any northward deviation to a latitude north of about 11N will bring it over waters less than 27C, which is the minimum temperature needed for tropical storm formation. A second wave near 12N 30W, just southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, showed some increase in convection the past few hours, and looks more promising than the first wave. However, this wave is very close the the cooler water boundary, so any northward component to its motion would dampen its chances of development. The wave is currently moving west at 10 - 15 mph. The GFS model doesn't develop either of these waves into tropical depressions over the next four days.





Dr. Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

502. cjnew
and u not me
503. Alec
thats a pretty big statement cj.
504. iyou
do, if you haven't - they're amazing - and i not you either- the handle i wanted was taken - oy vay
505. cjnew
i was just curious about iyou's name....intersting choice
506. Alec
i am not you. right iyou?
507. Alec
i need to change my name to my IM alias-theroaringkitten.
508. iyou
you're too funny - they're initials from my first and last name - but yeah, came out kinda interesting
509. cjnew
frightening..alec
510. Alec
interesting*
511. Alec
its a kitten with a big ego.
512. Alec
like cellery?
513. cjnew
yes i never even thought about initials....sorry to ask but areyou....male/female
514. cjnew
hate cellery hate grammar
515. Alec
its too fiberous.
516. iyou
are you going to do a blog marathon?? no leaning on each other either
517. Alec
i choke on the strands.
518. iyou
never be sorry! female
519. cjnew
maybe....dont know how long i can go on....me sleepy
520. Alec
we're already running one iyou.
521. Alec
female? what're yer doing up past 2:30am EST?
522. cjnew
cool nice to have ya.....never can tell with these names we've all got
523. cjnew
you*
524. iyou
i was watching and movie and come on to see of anyone was here - et voila - yeah it's tomorrow already
525. Alec
if we started earlier we could have reaches 20000 by now.
526. Alec
watched*
527. iyou
i like the night - it's quiet
528. Alec
scratch that last correction. reached*
529. iyou
so many errors - but you get the gist of it i hope
530. cjnew
well one day we'll start early and crush all
531. Alec
anyone else out there want to join in ? i know you're watching.
532. cjnew
yes i do but alec can help him self
533. cjnew
cant**
534. Alec
lol
535. Alec
need some H20.
536. cjnew
im totally going to sleep through stormtops lesson..i hope someone saves it
537. cjnew
no thanky
538. iyou
all the regulars make up the perfect cast - you know, like in seinfeld - i feel like an interloper coming on when everyone's here - and i love weather stuff but i am not a meteorologist
539. Alec
stormtop will outdate all of modern day weathercasting technology.
540. cjnew
lol iu
541. Alec
i was asking myself cj. lol
542. cjnew
who's kramer
543. cjnew
thought you were but we need all the posts
544. Alec
a dude that came up with outdated math techniques.
545. cjnew
lol
546. Alec
oh ok
547. iyou
i always imagine stormtop wearing a ten gallon hat - he certainly has a belief in his system - i like that
548. cjnew
whatever alec..lol
549. Alec
good. he needs to be ready for the cat5868686.
550. iyou
cj-kramer - alec - jerry
551. cjnew
he is very persistent and interesting
552. Alec
really? i didnt know.
553. cjnew
yay!!!!!!
554. cjnew
wait a minnute that means im the dumb guy
555. Alec
i see it now: the whole earth might as well be a living bunker. the big one's going to wipe the galaxy away.
556. cjnew
im reporting that as obscene.....j/k lol
557. iyou
he's not concerned about falling on his face, you know-he calls it as he sees it - rare quality these days
558. Alec
have you ever clicked the obscene/spam button cj?
559. iyou
not dumb by any means - you have to be genius to be funny --
560. cjnew
yeah....on stormtop
561. cjnew
i like how iyou thinks
562. Alec
you are a professional comedian right cj?
563. cjnew
nope just a hobby.....i was kidding about clicking the obscene button on stormtop
564. iyou
i've been laughing at - with you guys for almost two weeks!!
565. Alec
i thought stormtop was on the space shuttle till he wrote a poem then i knew he was still here.
566. Alec
you are quite something cj.
567. iyou
all my library things are overdue now cause i stay up so late-i'll have to give them my first born to make it up
568. cjnew
i did click it on accident the other day on jeff's blog.....they put the button right by where you enter the blog.........i felt bad
569. Alec
well well. first born eh?
570. iyou
so what happens when you click those - are you bumped off immediately or what??
571. Alec
the world falls into the black hole.
572. cjnew
i've only been posting for 3 days and for some reason for the past few days there has been an awful lot of comments...hmmmmmm
573. iyou
even dr. masters has those buttons!! when he talks
574. Alec
ya i wonder why?
575. Alec
haha. hope he doesnt write spam to himself.
576. cjnew
it just said that the head people will look at what i reported so i felt stupid that i did it to jeffs blog
578. iyou
really cj?? time does fly - only 3 days- well i'm not getting much sleep - time is an elastic band now
579. cjnew
yup he has them too i guess its for people like stormtop when they get mad at his predictions
580. Alec
elastic bands hurt when you get whapped in the face by the fat ones.
581. cjnew
yeah.......it has been a long few days..........probably because franklin the turtle is such a slow mover
582. Alec
makes me cry.
583. iyou
comments about u cj? - they've all been good - people missing u when you're not here
584. cjnew
i agree alec
585. Alec
cj gets comments everywhere. hes the most wanted guy on here.lol
586. cjnew
i know i read them over and over again to make me feel better.......i came back on last night and everyone went to bed 5 minnutes after i left
587. iyou
why get mad? a prediction is kind of abstract - great when you're right - but always subject to not being
588. Alec
see, we care about you cj. stormtop does a good job explaining things.
589. cjnew
i hope nobody gets annoyed by me... i wont be so bad when there is a storm coming.....i'll start my on blog
590. Alec
almost to 590 if not already.
591. iyou
yes, i saw your last few desperate posts cj - but i was too shy to respond
592. Alec
own*
593. cjnew
yes he does...i really enjoy all his comments....mostly because he does seem to put lots of work into them
594. Alec
if you did everyone would leave jeff's. heck jeff would go to yours too cj.
595. iyou
humour is NEVER annoying - i liked the finger accent - i almost fell of the chair
596. cjnew
you did thats funny...did you read my kinda poem........alec how do you know im not calling my blog the on blog
597. Alec
nearing 600 as i speak. count down.....5...4...3...2...1...liftoff!
598. Alec
off* (now that would really hurt)
599. cjnew
thanks im going to keep using that one till alec leaves my mistakes away.....fill free to use it when someone corrects you
600. iyou
stormtop is elusive- that's part of his charm
601. Alec
feel*
602. cjnew
o yay! thanks iyou now i know how to spell accent right
603. iyou
i mean, fell on the chair, i was standing beside it!!
604. cjnew
Alec that is so my accent leave me alone..lol
605. Alec
you need all the help you can get cj.
606. cjnew
lol
607. Alec
ok.
608. cjnew
well thanks alec
609. Alec
we should meet hurricaneturtle's hissing turtles.
610. cjnew
ya know im on here all the time but i only say something when i think i can stay awhile so no one gets upset when i leave so soon
611. cjnew
yess i heard about his turtles they sound cool
612. Alec
any word from cj is heaven.lol
613. iyou
my posts aren't coming thru
614. cjnew
that happens to me sometimes
615. iyou
okay - acsent was good - i knew what you meant - i'm dyslexic!!
616. Alec
his turtles spin clockwise in the southern hemisphere. the galapagos turtles are hard to get on their backs.
617. cjnew
i cant believe im doing this i actually have things to do tomorrow
618. iyou
i said, i've always wanted to play a phonetical game of Scrabble - did i spell that right Alec??
619. Alec
acsent??? i think its spelled wrong.
620. cjnew
lol...lol
621. Alec
yup
622. Alec
not too far off from the all time record.
623. iyou
i know that's wrong - i meant - phonetical!!
624. cjnew
yeah we know it is thats what we were talking about.....pay attention
625. Alec
!???
626. cjnew
that last post of mine was a lil late i typed it and forgot to hit post comment.....i was just sitting there waiting for it to appear
627. Alec
sure cj.
628. cjnew
where do we stand posts wise
629. iyou
as if by magic! that's next in cyber world - think it and it will be thus
630. Alec
nearing 630.
631. cjnew
im serious that post was for like 8 minnutes ago
632. cjnew
lol
633. Alec
minutes*
634. cjnew
iyou then my accent would always be there
635. iyou
just to let you know - i'm way up north - on the brow of the continent - in toronto - been breaking all our weather records
636. Alec
acscent* -just kidding!
637. cjnew
thanks alec.........i dont know why i keep talking about my accent i dont even have one
638. Alec
right.
639. iyou
"was for like" - i love it!
640. cjnew
wow thats far away i dont feel as close to you anymore....what got you interested in hurricanes
641. Alec
we need a blog specifically for stormtop. he could write all the stuff hes inventing on it.
642. Alec
probably heard about them forming in the great lakes.lol
643. cjnew
yes we do..........actually now that i think about it where is toronto
644. iyou
i'm not breaking the records personally - ! i'd like it to cool down a tiny bit - i don't understand people who jog when it's hot/humid - give it at rest aleady
645. cjnew
lol
646. Alec
north of the border near lake huron i think..
647. cjnew
seriously!! you can so walk on a treamill in the air conditioning..plus eat and watch tv at the same time
648. cjnew
treadmill**
649. Alec
scrap that.
650. iyou
*already* - on the northeast shore of lake ontario - i'm two blocks from the lake
651. cjnew
cool...or hot however you look at it
652. Alec
i live near a puddle.
653. iyou
i like your idea of exercise cj -:-)
654. cjnew
i live near a dried up pond
655. Alec
look at it with glasses cause thats what im wearing.
656. cjnew
well thats how i do it.....i only got like 12percent body fat...im cursed with good genes.....or a hard gainer
657. Alec
stormtop's probably developing worst case scenario for tornados in a laboratory.
658. iyou
you guys are funny!! i can never fall asleep after being at this blog - from the laughs and the lessons!
659. Alec
right cj.lol
660. cjnew
funny alec lol
661. cjnew
oh wow alec we are starting to think alike
662. Alec
i only have -.000017 body fat.
663. iyou
you're trying to outpond and puddle each other!
664. Alec
i like puddles. splashing is my idea of fun.
665. cjnew
yeah well atleast a puddle has water.....really alec???
666. Alec
naw, you think?
667. iyou
isn't a tornado already a worst case scenario???
668. cjnew
i dont think everyone else appreciates that picture that changes everytime you refresh like i do....i love it
669. Alec
no. stormtop doesnt ever stop. Its gotta be REAL bad.
670. cjnew
yeah but im sure stormtop drop can make it worst
671. iyou
what is interesting is that he makes the most dire predictions and then *poof* - he's gone
672. cjnew
i need a post update......im starting to loose finger function........and my left ear is getting hot and it itches
673. Alec
Stormtop is a top. Top of a hurricane.
674. cjnew
yes very curious....maybe he avoids questions and just wants it to play out like it plays out
675. Alec
scrap that. too random.
676. iyou
cj - get to bed!!
677. Alec
yep. beds calling but we're sooooooooooo close.
678. cjnew
i would but alec said i couldnt
679. Alec
nearing 675.
680. Alec
i mean 680
681. iyou
did he answer WSI's question?
682. cjnew
he also said that we'd get there by 3 oclock
683. Alec
no, he said he'd do it tomorrow after he teaches us more.
684. Alec
we werent going a post per second though.
685. cjnew
he said he would tomorrow....if the site goes funky again........try and post in the newest blog available so we can say good night...if it completely goes poof i'll talk to ya later
686. Alec
got to take into account frictional drag cj.
687. cjnew
oh well that was a sneaky trick
688. iyou
verrry interesting people here - you two definitely - so, if alec said you could go to bed would you??? lol
689. Alec
its getting cold in here.
690. cjnew
nnnaaaa! i would have beforeit got this late
691. iyou
what time is stormtop coming on-did he say?
692. cjnew
yeah my legs a freezing
693. Alec
need warmth.
694. iyou
cold would be nice - it's going down to 24 deg. celsius here to-morrow - coldest in a month
695. cjnew
no he didnt he just said the morning which unless he meant this early in the morning i wont be awake
696. Alec
sometime tomorrow. dont know. but i suggest yall save his lesson. we can compile a book when its all done.
697. Alec
well, in that case the shutters are going up and im getting into a steel bunker 9800ft underground.
698. cjnew
yes i must say he writes the longest posts besides the master
699. Alec
get ready cj. 700's almost here.
700. iyou
yikes-it's late - it will never be done - weather never ends
701. cjnew
kool i wont go crazy this time........i think i was the one who messed it up last time
702. Alec
you stole the honor iyou. cj wanted to be post #700. well congrats anyway.
703. cjnew
did we get it yet
704. Alec
cj. try again later.
705. cjnew
thats ok i got it last time....congrats to iyou yay!!!!!!!
706. iyou
didn't mean to - talk to you to-morrow maybe and i definitely want to see whay stormtop has to say - dire or no good-night
707. cjnew
oh yeah anytime alec.......this weekend we'll go for 800 or 900
708. Alec
need a party to celebrate 3 days in a row of breaking all kinds of records!
709. cjnew
thanks bunches for helping iyou...later
710. Alec
thats a fair assessment. good nite iyou. say it cj-
711. cjnew
we sure do everyone will be proud
712. iyou
thanks-it was great - stormtop here to-morrow - i mean, later
713. cjnew
ha! i beat you
714. Alec
pride goes before honor. i think.
715. cjnew
ok ....goodnite
716. Alec
it was nice breaking another record cj.
717. cjnew
well alec we did it....we should go to bed so we can try and see stormtoppy
718. Alec
they'll think we're crazy tomorrow.
719. cjnew
yes it was goodnite
720. cjnew
thats what i thought, we kinda are
721. iyou
are you still muttering to each other - get to bed already
722. Alec
nite nite sweet dreams! the suns coming up in a few hours. see ya -later(im gone really this time cj)
723. cjnew
ok good nite iyou and alec......here i go ............cj...............OUT!!!
724. Alec
lying to myself. not!!!!!!!
725. Alec
bye to all!-----------------------------later
"Ocean spray lubricates hurricane winds"

Link


...I didn't regularily visit this site before the blogs, so maybe the community hung out somewhere else on the site I haven't seen yet, but it's interesting to see such an active community form so quickly around the new blogs. I guess weather is one thing everyone has in common.
727. cjnew
hey who are you???
728. cjnew
oh well talk to everyone tomorroe or later today i guess....................cj..............OUT!!!
Just a friendly lurker :)
730. Alec
friendly lurker???? lol nice to se ya on here. Good morning yall.yesterday it was the slowest day up till when cj came on. the the real fun started.lol i hafta go. be back later this afternoon.
731. WSI
Ok everyone, I have a post set up in my blog for the link swaps (so they are all in one place).

In case you missed it yesterday, a few of us were interested in the links others were using. Now we can post some of our links so others can hopefully use them as well.

My blog..

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/WSI/show.html


I have added some of my links already. :)
Morning people,

Finally the heatwave has broke around here, its a nice 70 degrees some 15 degrees cooler than yesterday around this time. We had a couple of thunderstorms last night, nothing major (didn't even turn off the computer). To the south and west they got the more powerful ones.. A good downpour this morning so far about .5 inch - 1 inch or rain (good thing cause my grass was looking mighty brown).
68 F here in bloomington, IN

Sadly, we didnt get many storms, just some lightning to our north
morning peeps-

Well it looks like one of them waves will turn into a hurricane, says the gfs model. And it looks like its coming right for Florida. Back me up Stormtop...(will the old people finally leave the state? lol)

And wouldnt it be funny if Franklin does a loop-de-loops and comes back west for revenge?
Good Morning y'all
Franklin is done. . no use worrying about it anymore.

But half the models seem to think a storm will develop soon out in the atlantic. Looks "promising"
Thanks for those links WSI
Well being in florida and all looks I'll have alot to watch.
Punk,

Should have been out there doing the raindance or aleast wash your car (ie always seems to rain after you wash your car). I don't dare wash mine scared it fall apart. ie I drive a 91 Nissian Sentra that is a rust bucket, has 180K miles on it, exhaust leak(s) but runs like a champ. Not to mention it was cheap ($300). I going to drive it into the ground then buy another beater (been doing that all my life, only new cars I owned my wife has driven)
I have a '91 Nissan 240SX, so i can understand what you mean. Only 109k on my car, however. I dont think I have washed it in months. Maybe, just maybe, i should do that.
well...we shall see what we shall see, and i envy everyone up there in the north w/ the low 70's upper 60's...down here in fl its not much past 10am and its already like 92
Punk,

Nissian's, Toyoto's and Honda's last forever, if you treat them right (engines seem to last much longer than the bodies). I have owned 3 Nissian's (including my current car), 2 Toyoto's and 2 Honda's. All of them where over 100K when purchased or I drove them over 100K, Both the Toyoto's and Honda's I owned where over 200K miles on them when I sold them (original engines). My dad still owns one of my Toyoto's and its pushing 400K (of course this is down south where the winter salt doesn't eat the body for breakfast). And of the ones I sold I sold them/gave them away because the cost of repairing a part was more than I purchased the car for (all the cars in question I purchased for under $1500). In case your are wondering I been driving for 18 years (more like 25 if you count driving cars and tractors around on the farm) I have owned 12 cars
Good Morning all, so it looks like FL is a target in a week, not good, hoping we would be spared on the east coast this year, but it looks like I will be looking at a 100% rate increase on my homeowners insurance next year. Thats if one of these storms dont rip my mobile home into shreads.
I have a yellow VWBug 2001 and I love it - does well in all kinds of weather - even flooding - for some reason my car makes all the deep water - I guess it's the floating effect
How do you know Florida is going to get hit what is everyone looking at
What's with Franklin? Why doesn't this thing get a life?
The long term models have been picking up at least 2 storms forming and coming in this general direction from the bahamas
Sorry for you :-( happy for Texas :-)
Guess Im talking to myself this morning -
Orion,

My car already has had its engine melt (i over heated it the second day i got it). Wasnt a fault on my behalf, but more from the previous owner. But oh well, we got a "new" 70,000 mile engine. Hopefully it will last a long time now.

EVERYONE,

Remember that the models are VERY poor at predicting cyclogenisis. In other words, if they show a storm developing on the model, it does not mean 100% that a storm will be created.
That's why I asking how did they know so far out in advance Punkass
Yes but they also are not good at predicting a storm forming until after it happens, and if most of the models are picking up a storm forming I think the chances are good, i just hope if they do they go out to sea.
I havent seen ANY models where storms hit Florida. A storm hitting florida in a weeks time is almost impossible to predict. If you would like an idea of ALL of the possible storm scenarios Emma, check out this link:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc2.cgi?time=2005072700&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

Notice: no storms over Florida.
punkass notice this is 5 day model, notice i said more then a week from now, 7-9 days, pay attention to the one showing up in the hispaniola in 5 days. Any storm that is in that general vicinity everybody on the east coast of Florida should pay attention to.
yea..models arent too accurate, but this is what I was looking at:

Link

just hit "fwd". You will see it.
i have 3 reasons why i think the tropics will heat up even more in The last 3 months...
1. less shear across the tropics ..this will set the stage for warmer temps from the coast of africa to the eastern caribbean sea..this will let more energy develop and spawn more tropical activity..

2 the lack of and el nino and a la nina this year combined with the weaker azores high and much warmer temps in the atlantic will allow for a more northward shift in the ITCZ..this will cause less shear over the eastern caribbean and will develop more hurricanes before they reach the winward islands..another reason is also the upper TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH that causes extreme shear in the eastern caribbean will be non existent this year allowing more hurricanes combined with the high water tepm to strengthen more rapidly..

3 that lack of troughs coming down the pike causing the hurricanes to curve out to sea is not happeneing..i think the azores high by moving from the se where it normally is and moving back towards the nw blocking all the troughs that try to come down to be our saving grace..the bermuda ridge has weakened considerably and i think will get even weaker keeping the azore high in control and not let the hurricanes turn out into the atlantic...this is the main reason why i am calling for increase activity for the gulf coast states from texas to fla..i think the east coast if a trough happens to be strong enough and weakens the azores high the east coast could get 1 major hurricane before its over...but as we know all it takes is one ...my 2005 forecast have been increased it goes like this:

NAMED STORMS 22

HURRICANES 13

MAJOR HURRICANES 8

i will be back later on to explain my new stormtop intensity scale i have had lots of questions already about it...until later people you have a great day and watch my prediction still stands 3 more named storms in july..im saying harvey friday irene saturday and jose sunday...the tropics will stay very active in the year 2005 causing the gulf coast and lets not forget mexico they are not out of the woods by any means to have hurricane conditions of major proportions...its looking good for the east coast and miami...this is my opinion only i want to emphasize this....

StormTop
Yes I see Harvey, and Irene forming during the next week, and history past Harvey brushed s Fla, and Irene was a cat 1 back door hit for s. Fla. and I would bet that Jose will floating around somewhere to
I see what you are saying, that it will be off the coast. If that model does turn out to be true, then maybe we might have a storm near florida. But it also looks like it will bend to the north, be another Franklin.
correction 14 hurricanes...i wanted to set the record straight...
3 storms in 5 days. . .that would be amazing. I see maybe 2 by the end of the month. 1 definately.

Still you never know what storms do once it hits that hotass water in the bahamas. Only if the bermuda moves more east would I breath a sigh of relief for Florida. and plus the further south these storms are the less affect a trough would give in picking them up and taking them out to sea
I see 2 named and 1 depression before end of the month and the depression would be jose by aug 1 or 2
well if the bermuda high moves east wouldnt that push any storms into the gulf and give them a chance to intensify more?
764. WSI
I am still waiting for you to answer my questions Stormtop.
I just hope a local TV station dont hire stormtop as a broadcast meteorologist...I mean the aftermath of the evacuations would maybe rival a cat5.....
the answer wsi why i was so far off was number 1

the storm never got started a low pressure system developed over the southern yucatan and zapped all the energy causing gert to have shear all the way to it hit mexico..it was about 50 miles off the coast when the shear started to let up and then it was to close to land...i didnt expect the high over the gulf to be that strong with a weak tropical storm to push it inland that easy...it is the tropical storm that always gives you fits...to answer your question what i would do different...there was no way of forecasting a middle low would develop and be that strong for 48 hours even the computers had it weakening in 12 hours moving south which that was wrong it moved west causing more sheer on the storm....that cut the strengtning of the system and why it moved into mexico i didnt think in my mind the high was strong enough to push a tropical storm inland and keep it moving...what i would do different? check the amount of wind sheer around the storm and also check out buoys in the gulf to see whats happening out there and check the pressure charts more closely.i saw this scenario coming when the low began to move west but i wont hedge on my forecast...what i say at the beginning i stick to it...i just got caught in a catch 22...i still dont believe in models wsi.....StormTop
767. WSI
Didn't Stormyop say he lives on the Gulf Coast? And he ALWAYS calls for the Gulf Coast to get slammed? Either he really likes to see/wants to see hurricanes pass over him, or he likes to be in the middle of the action. East coast only one major hurricane? Logic says otherwise.
768. WSI
Don't believe in models? Even though they had the storm pegged pretty well overall? I think they did a fine job this time around.
769. WSI
In either case, thanks for the answer. When I get time I will review the weather data myself and see how your conclusions fit in. Thanks. :)
hmm..talking about TV. The Weather Channel cant even spend a full 5 minutes on the Tropical Update and cant even speculate on the waves coming. They can spend endless time on stupid "gardening tips" and talkin over and over about the midwest. Bahh...they suck. I gotta start watching ch 7. Its kinda like watching stormtop on tv..;)
hey wsi why dont you ask me what i did right for cindy and dennis...had cindy within 10 miles of landfall the weather servive was 40 miles off and dennis i hit right on the nose..that doesnt count in your book i guess...thats ok i can take a critic very well..yes i do live on the gulf coast and i dont agree with your east coast forecast they are lucky to have one this year if that wsi....
Stormtop..you say east coast..of florida? Or east coast of US?
You relize that a USA weather channel is goining to cover all of the us cuz there are other parts of the country where no one cares about tropical weather and want to know what going to happen in their area,untill a tropical system becomes a strong hurricane or a tropical storm/hurricane comes close to the US they dont cover it very much on the weather channel and rightly so beacause the have the rest of the country that could care less about tropical waves,In fact when hurricanes have thretened the US they have the most coverage so I dont know what you are complaining about.
east coast of us...
So gfs says one of the waves will hit florida as a hurricane,interesting....
I dont COUNT on computer modles but they are a useful TOOL in weather forecasting,thats my oppinion on computer models.
Jedkins..all Im saying is they can spend a bit more time than 2 minutes rushing thru what has happened with Franklin and talked about future waves. They didnt even talk about the Sahara dust...
It will likely not be another franklin the trough will stay farther west and the high over north and central florida extending into eastern gulf as of right now.
Well they did quite a bit yesterday
CNN now calls themselves Hurricane Headquarters - hee
and I agree TWC only spends a minute on tropical updates
then how to garden or care for your dog -
Models have been pretty accurate but to predict something so far out you might as well consult a psychic OR CNN Hurricane Headquarters LOL
I saw them have the story about the sahara dust at least 4 times and I wasn't watching it the whole day.
EmmyRose,

Never owned a VW, but I know most VW owners are fantics about thier cars.

Punk,

Yea one of the Toyoto's I owned the orignal owner drove it into a tree. He took it to a garage I used to work at and wouldn't pay the bill. The owner was about to ditch the thing and sue the owner. But I convinced him to let my buy it and drop the matter. And one of the Nissian's I owned the orginal owner at blew up the engine. He gave to me and I got a garage owner to take the engine out of a wrecked Nissian and put it into the other Nissian I just got.
My opinion on models,They are not just for hurricanes ,in fact they are for global forecast.They have been the biggest advancement in long term forecasting so far. Look at how they do elsewhere not just the tropics then judge them.Besides without them the DATA would have to be done by hand which may take a team of mathmaticians 2 years to project just one plot for a hurricane...by then maybe 30 more would have come and gone..motto :dont blast what you dont understand.
CNN?Whoa there getting desprate cause fox is beating them out,So I guess they have to try something,but since when has cnn been hurricane headquarters? lol.
Oh and side note...those models for hurricane prediction are 90%...better than all here from post i've read...
well I believe you are right simialar to my thinking models are a usefull tool in forecasting but I dont count on them,but that doesn't mean I despise them eather.
They are not 90% more around 55% - 60%.
55% - 65% I should say typo.
But that is obviously not true and whatever source you got that from is lying to you outrocket,but no more disagreement Ithink both of us could be wrong so I will stop my childish bashing.
Go to knew blog
Dont watch FOX so I dont know about that
Models have been pretty accurate and I agree
that is how they can gather information, research, compare and learn
792. WSI
I wasn't here for Dennis or Cindy Stormtop, in all fairness to you. Maybe you had them right, maybe you didn't. Dennis wasn't too hard to forecast though. I didn't keep track of Cindy much. Let me tell you what I have seen. You forecasted Emily to hit the Gulf Coast. Didn't happen. You forecasted Gert to hit the Gulf Coast. Didn't happen. You had intensities of both storms wrong. You said the models were out to lunch on both. Yet, they did a bang up job overall. That is what I see. I am not a critic, but I don't accept someone forecasting so much intensity and damage when their track record hasn't been even close.
You are exactly right WSI, I still cannot believe he will not own up to his bad forecast on emily.
georgia is long time due for 1.hope not but its true