WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Watching three tropical waves

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:13 PM GMT on August 14, 2006

Heavy thunderstorms continue over the waters east of Florida this morning along an old cold front. Wind shear is 10-15 knots in a narrow band along this old front, which is low enough to allow some development to occur. A non-tropical area of low pressure developed yesterday near 28N 74W, a few hundred miles east of Cape Canaveral, Florida. Preliminary forecast tracks for this low are plotted in Figure 1. However, visible satellite imagery from this morning reveals that a new area of low pressure is developing much closer to the Florida coast near 27.5N 78W, about 150 miles east of Vero Beach. Long range radar out of Melbourne is also showing an increase in thunderstorm activity off the coast in association with this developing low. This low is drifting slowly southwards, and we don't have any premilinary model tracks from NHC for it. My guess is that this new low will dominate the circulation and the old low NHC has been tracking will dissipate later today. The East Coast of Florida near Vero Beach and West Palm Beach could get heavy rain today as this new low continues to develop.

Development along old fronts is usually slow, so the earliest we should expect a tropical depression to form from either of these two lows is Tuesday. There is a significant amount of wind shear on either side, plus plenty of dry air to the north, so anything that develops will likely struggle to intensify. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate this system on Tuesday afternoon.

The computer models are forecasting that any low that forms along the old front will begin moving northwestwards towards the Carolinas over the next three days, in response to a trough of low pressure swinging across the eastern U.S. When the trough moves out to sea on Thursday, high pressure is forecast to build back in, forcing the system back towards the west, or leaving it nearly stationary off the East Coast. None of the computer models forecast that the storm will grow to anything stronger than a 45-mph tropical storm.


Figure 1. Current satellite of the Florida region.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean
A tropical wave a few hundred miles west of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west-northwestward at 10-15 mph. While the wave is an area of low wind shear (5-10 knots), it is embedded in a large area of dry air, which is keeping thunderstorm activity minimal. A QuikSCAT pass from 5:48am EDT today showed no surface circulation and top winds below 20 mph. The dry air should keep any development slow today. Wind shear is expected to remain below 10 knots near the wave's location through Tuesday, but the long-term prospect of this system becoming a hurricane is very low. The wave is headed for the Western Caribbean, where high wind shear associated with an upper-level low pressure system will dominate all week. The Hurricane Hunters mission scheduled for today was canceled, due to the wave's lack of organization. NHC did not run their package of preliminary model tracks on it this morning, and this may be the last mention I give of this system.

New wave off of Africa
A large and impressive tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa today, a few hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verdes Islands. The wave has a well-defined circulation at mid-levels, and is under about 10 knots of wind shear. It could develop into a tropical depression in the next few days as it moves west-northwest just south of the Cape Verdes Islands.

Figure 3. Preliminary models tracks for the Cape Verdes Islands disturbance.

I'll be back with an update Tuesday, unless some significant development occurs. On either Tuesday or Wednesday, I plan to post my outlook for the remainder of August. Is today's activity a sign the tropics are heating up?

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. OSHNBLU
this blog is supposed to be a serious weather blog(at least it WAS!)Dr. Masters puts in hours for us amatures helping educate and advise, please quit deluting his expertise by disrespecting HIS blog.

Kids...cut it out Please! Let this be about the weather. Keep your personal stuff in your own blog.

Sorry for the spelling errors, its why I dont post often. Dyslexia

You private issues mean nothing.
Hey 23,

U seem like a good guy; I can understand language problems. If u are really not this christy person, keep posting your own ideas. If u are reading other things and posting from them, use quote marks"" or say where u read them. That's what I do.

My best advice otherwise is Let It Go. People will often believe what they want. Besides tomorrow most of us would rather post about what's left of 93L and the revived 94L . . .

The map that Weather456 posted came from here; it indicates the probability of a tropical cyclone forming in the next 24 hours.
if the storm east of florida stalls is there a chance it will effect the florida mainland if so when do you all think?
Posted By: barbadosjulie at 10:21 PM AST on August 14, 2006.
weather23 please explain this map to me. Sorry i am now learning the weather thing and am eager for info


Which map?
ok great thanks
hurricane23 if this blog is to nuts for you then this move it on overe to my blog and are all ways be welcome in my blog

STOP MAKING FUN OF HURRICANE23 ITS NOT BEING NIC HOW WOULD YOU LIKE IT IF I MADE FUN OF YOU I DONT THINK YOU WOULD LIKE IT VARY MARCK SO I ASK PLEASE STOP MAKEING FUN OF HURRICANE23 OR I START MAKE FUN OF YOU
So 94 has a slightly better chance than 93 . . .

I'm also assuming that all the other coloured squares on the map have features of some kind in them . . .
Your welcome Baha! That was a loop that Hurricane23 posted a while back. Great view of the big picture.
The general Prob map, thanks but MichaelISTl explained it to me
Never mind....
There are also graphs of the formation probability since the beginning of the year; this is for the East Pacific (the think black line is the climatological or normal formation probability):



Notice that most storms develop after it rises to a relatively high percentage, and you can see that it is rising again after a couple weeks (the NHC says that a new storm may develop in a day or two).

Here is the equivalent chart for the tropical Atlantic (the Atlantic is broken up into many sections). Notice the steep rise recently:

1013. Gatorx
The big rainmaker next to Vero Beach just did not happen today. Light spitting is all we got. I'll say my prayers tonight and see what tommorrow brings - we are nice and brown here in tropical paradise. Also a suggestion - instead of saying Hi Guys or Hi Fellas - How about Hi folks - there are lotsa us girls who blog here. Don't hate me cause I'm sensitive....
JustCoasting....if that happens, there's no telling. Just by the definition of the word "stall". If that happened, or slowed down, you can't predict when it's going to "unstall".


looks like 93L is tryin like hades to bust through the "desert"...... there still seems to be some circ down around the bahama's as well.....

another ULL pops up, looks to be heading towards PR......
Posted By: JUSTCOASTING at 2:23 AM GMT on August 15, 2006.
if the storm east of florida stalls is there a chance it will effect the florida mainland if so when do you all think?


It is stalled right now, general model concensus is mid florida to the carolina's. Should start moving some tomorrow, not much happening tonight.
1018. Gatorx
Thanks JP ... for being a gentleman
bahahurricane check your mail.
thanks cosmic so isthere a possibilty this could be a florida windmaker or is that not likly in your opion
000
ABNT20 KNHC 150206
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT MON AUG 14 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA...EXTENDING FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A FEW
HUNDRED MILES...HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY OR DRIFTS NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

A WELL-ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE...SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD SPREAD OVER THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH
MiamiDude get over it!and grow up.dont worry about me.
Another excellent post, MiamiDude!
Good Night All
Is "unstall" a real word?
Adios 456
if 94L forms is it going to head out to sea?
Florida Disturbance



Cape Verde Wave



Caribbean Disturbance

JustCoasting.....the opinion of Progressive Pulse is a better opinion than mine. He has told you what would likely happen if it stalled now. But to me the question is, "if it stalls or slows, when will that happen". And depending on that, it's a difficult forecast. For now, my best advice is follow the NHC and NWS advisories and your local authorities. Nothing to get too worked up about at this point. At this point, they are telling you that it more likely to be a Florida windmaker than a Bermuda windmaker.
hurricaneman2394L's future track will depend on intensity.if it stays week then i expect a more westward movement in the next couple of days as there is a pretty strong high pressure ridge over the wave.
Would you prefer destall over unstall? Neither one are real words, but we all know what they mean. How about giddy-up. That's a real word.
Proceed - to go on or move forward, especially after an interruption
If that happened, or slowed down, you can't predict when it's going to "unstall".


If that happened, or slowed down, you can't predict when it's going to giddy-up.


Yep, I like giddy-up, it works more better.
Yes, we'll rename it Weather Underground for the Illiterate
sorry,

I meant "more gooder". ;)
There are some big waves behind 94L that will be exiting africa in the coming days.The eastern atlantic may get active in the next few days.
just east of cape verdes islands just like masters said, theres a picture, its already lookin like its forming
JP,
What do you think of the Florida Low's movement? I'm slightly confused baed on local stations here in Orlando most say its going to NC/SC then why are the models pushing it west to FL?
the storm's gonna do whatever it feels like doin, i am a strong advocator of believing your eyes over your local weatherman.
i think one of those verdes waves will be a storm between Friday-Sunday
Me silly...You guys are the ones that are ones talking acting like 10 year olds talkin about stuff you do even know about.
That old Saharah Air Layer is all kind of busted up.
how big do they think this Florida Coastal system will get? By guessing i doubt it would even get to storm status.
Hi ya'll..well, everyone here seems to be doing fine this evening..
Everybody has to be careful about what they say now, since everything is being tracked.
why are people making fun of 23?
hey how does that thing work Michael?
when we get the new rules, i'll prob get banned the first day! LOL

nite all..... taking my swirl chasers to bed! :)
not much - been reading these here blogs and LMAO..i am trying to get UNSTALLED. I kinda' like that JP. Anyway, did you get to see any meteors the other night?

its a great idea b/c i am personally getting sick of all this childish bickering that goes on in here, not necessarily today but when 99L was flaring up it was like a first grade class in here...
by the way, who is WunderYazooki or however you spell it..
it should be set forth that if you disrespect anyone's opinion or person that they be removed from writing on this blog.
Just a general comment to the wise,

The very person who you slighted and teased in high school may be the next Bill Gates (hey, maybe it WAS Bill Gates).

And what, u may ask, does this have to do with the tropic? Today's desparaged 94L may be Friday's 1st Cape Verde hurricane of the season, a veritable Wilma. Be respectful. Keep your eyes peeled. (well, at least open when u are not sleeping)

Why else are we here anyway?
===========================
Posted By: AllyBama at 12:11 AM JST on August 15, 2006.
not much - been reading these here blogs and LMAO..i am trying to get UNSTALLED. I kinda' like that JP. Anyway, did you get to see any meteors the other night?

===========================


yes, Saturday night just one hour before the moon rose, I saw about six meteors. One of those was bright.
storm junkies whats the deal is that thing off the FLA coast gonna do any thing? and whatabout that thing fresh off cape verdes look prettty sick bra!!
Aaron did not fully specify how it would work (he will tell us soon), but he did say that we would be able to block out posts from our view that were posted by somebody with a rating that is lower than what we set it at (for example, all posts by somebody with a rating of 5 would be blocked if we set it at 6; this would only block the posts from individual view).
I think we have made it too second grade today.

Weave bin wurking ohn punktuation an spehlin' and a gooder yoose of gramher.
oops thought you were asking everyone in general.. heh
1069. will40
Posted By: AllyBama at 3:11 AM GMT on August 15, 2006.
by the way, who is WunderYazooki or however you spell it.. that is the guy that does the coding of WU
WunderYakuza (Aaron) is the system administrator; he is the one who created the code for Weather Underground and the blogs; he continuously adds new stuff to them.
FLSilverSurfer..did you say sick bra? or is my eyesight bad tonight?
I just found this interesting bit of information by googling meteosat:

The Meteosat-7 satellite has ceased transmission of its PDUS service. This is so that it can be moved to 63 degrees east viewing the Indian Ocean, to replace the ageing Meteosat-5.

All geostationary images can now be obtained from our Meteosat Second Generation service.

If you are looking for the "European Sector" images then please take a look at the "Channel 12 (north)" images from MSG.

Please bear with us if our website seems slow today - it is very busy with many people discovering the MSG images. It will be upgraded to run on faster computers very soon.


Wonder if this explains why the last meteosat image at NOAA is dated Jan 6 . . .
WunderYazooki as you say it, is your benevolent dictator here, he created the WU blogs. He ia also known as Aaron. Everyone should read his blog. Things are changing.

StoryOfTheHurricane ~ with the change brings you an advantage. Obsene what you think is to far & spam what else you care to see, you can copyright what isn't right. It will lower that person's rating & up your thesehold of what rate of people you want to see. Click away, it's already counting.
Hades glad you got to see some of the meteors and JP sad that you didn't..
and
will40 tks for answering my question
I really feel if 93L does not flare up over night the recon mission for tommorow will be a no go.not looking good at all tonight,but there's chance it might strengthen some as it may move into somewhat of a more favorable inviroment tommorow.
Tks MichaelSTL
Where can i view
a sweet satellite loop of the west coast of africa?
MichaelSTL,of those who are deemed unworthy for veiwing, will they still be able to read all the post?
My fave comment: Aaron actually sees today's earlier spat as a productive part of blog life . . . lol Imagine if we had all been good little boys and girls . . . he wouldn't have been able to test the system so easily . . . LOL
Thank you too Skyepony
Go here...but you have to subsribe its free.

DUNDEE SATELLITE IMAGES
1084. will40
Link west africa coast
Thanks will 40 your the man keep it real
thanks cane 23 preciated
When Aaron talks about viewing thersholds, he means that you can opt to block posts from users with ratings below a certain level (this would only apply to you; if you set the level at zero, you could see posts from everybody). This is not like banning, where somebody can't post anymore; they can post to their heart's content, but if you set the filter setting to a level higher than their rating, their posts will be rendered invisible to you.
Does anyone one remember Hugo 89' I was like three years old in summerville,SC like 40 miles inland and i can still hear the pine trees cracking in the middle of the night while my dad was @ Charleston naval shipyard trying to keep a trident sub from getting taken by the sea
1089. will40
Link Yes
FlaSilver heres a link on her journey
MiamiDude,

If 23 is Christie, REPORT HIM TO WU!!! If they found him before couldn't they do it again?

What do u want us to DO about it?

It's really getting annoying, one way or the other. Do what u have to do; let's get back to the weather.
im an idiot, i was just talking to myself in aron's blog for like 20 minutes
1093. will40
LMAO Story
Story, you are cracking me up...
lol alright thats the last time I listen to 23, thanks for bringing that to light Miami, nobody likes a plaguerizer, I just realized that a second ago when Hurricane23 said an exact quote from Master's blog just like an hour ago, lol, funny stuff
You guys have made my wife feel horrible tonight cause of all your insults and smart remarks.Christy does not go on this website i do.This really sucks....What happened with my wife has nothing to do with wunderweather.

PLEASE STOP WITH THE SMART REMARKS AND INSULTS TOWARDS MY WIFE SHE DOES NOT GO ON THIS WEBSITE.
Guys and Gals:

I have not been here in this blog for long, and I am glad it is here. As for all this Hurricane23/Adrian/Christy thing...it is getting old fast. I came here to learn and be fasinated by others that have the same intrest as me: Mother Nature. If there is to be continued child's play, I will go to another site/blog and find other people of like minds/enthusiasm, without all the drama. If I wanted drama I would log on to Soaps.com or whatever the site is for it. Can we please talk about weather/weather related stuff so I do not have to go look for another place to sit and chill?

Sorry for the rant...
it sure is quiet in here...
It amazes me when folks try to get away with deceit, you would think we had politicians in government or even are president setting that kind of example. Where do people learn these behaviors?
I like the part where other get blamed when they have to deal with consequences of their own inappropriate behavior.
Ally,

We had all the excitement earlier today when it looked better for 93 AND 94L. . .

Ya'll, I'm headed to bed. Not much more to be said until after the 0600Z updates, and hopefully when I get up in the a. m. the day's dramas and traumas will be resolved so we can go back to gnawing the potentiality out of some potential tropical systems . . .

Nite, All!
If people have a problem with a user, flag it, talk about it on your own blog, or bring it to me. This is not the appropriate forum.
Good night Baha..talk with you tomorrow..
The last pass of QUICKSCAT & CloudSat missed both invests. There is no Dvorak #s on them either.

Thanks Aaron.
Will do Aaron, I had been refraining,until the evidence became compelling along with a series of misinformation.
Glad you have come up with a solution to keeping things on topic. Look forward to it.
1112. edith
What is the biggest contributor to a storms direction of travel? Wind?

If your going to post your thoughts! Post links and discussion about how you came to your analysis and all this can be avoided. If you can't back up your info and support your analysis don't expect to be taken seriously.
Evening Everyone, is it me or is 94L Trying to wrap a band around to make an Eye structure of some what? any one see it please let me know. :0)
They are flying out of the Cape Verde Islands this week, for special research.

Researchers probe what spawns hurricanes (highlights)

Researchers don't know exactly why some of these waves become menaces and others peter out.

So starting this week, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will try to find out by studying these tropical systems as they make their way west from their breeding ground in Africa.

The researchers hope their work will help forecasters make more accurate predictions of hurricane intensity.

Some data gathered by the teams will be fed in real time to computer models, so forecasters could see improvements in intensity forecasts this year, he said. Other information will be analyzed over the long term.

NASA is using a specially equipped plane based in the Cape Verde Islands 350 miles off Senegal to track and analyze the African easterly waves, which form over the eastern part of the continent and move west. Forecasters believe more than 80 percent of hurricanes of Category 3 or higher come from these waves.

They will also examine the effects of the Saharan air layer, a large formation of hot, dry, dusty air that researchers say can stop hurricanes from developing.

NASA satellites, NOAA planes, weather radar and balloons will also be used during the monthlong project. From the air and space, the team will gather an unprecedented amount of data on temperature, humidity, air pressure, rainfall, dust particles and other factors.
93L is almost gone....POOF

Water Vapor Imagery...


Edith, every storm has many compeling vairibals. Wind at different levels, coriolis effect, size, pressure, highs, lows, and even with all that, some storms go where they end up and research brings out the why or how.

You can search either NHC's site or Wikipedia or somewhere on here for info on Hurricane's how ther form and what affects them.
variables v-a-r-i-a-b-l-e-s variables
Trak, 93L is more organized. I'd say it's desperatly trying to pull together a coc (center of circulation) instead of an eye. It really lacks convection(that's why you can see the structure so good), though it has slightly more than it did this time lastnight.
g' night all
1121. will40
Link edith look at this site it shows steering currents just follow the arrows
Floater 2 in rainbow does it a little more justice. Hard to see something on WV if it hardly has vapor. If it doesn't get some by morning it might be over though.
93L is a very disorganized mess....If the shear and dry air moves out then maybe a slim chance.there might be nothing left by tommorow morning.
Skyepony,i would of thought that thru the years someone/research team would have done a study already. But it is good to know that they are doing this now. Advance warnings of a approaching storms is desperately needed in areas that are highly populated and with minimal evac routes. 2005 season proved this.
goodnite FL..
LATEST IMAGE shows convection starting to fire near the center. Personal opinion is DRY AIR will see this one to the grave.
94L dos not look well as well hurricane23 or is it this me
Can the area of dry air to the west of 94L be caught up in or shifted by the trough off of FL?
1129. edith
Thanks FL. It's challenging to learn the science where the values seem defined but a singular, comprehensive, equative process does not exist.

By the way, is asking questions in this forum discouraged?

E.
Dry air is built in behind 94L, so any moisture it pulls from the ITCZ will be suppressed.
ProgressivePulse the dry moveing south is going to eat 93L alive in my opinion.


1132. edith
Thanks Will.
Edith, I am new to this site and am learning more about weather systems as well. I too ask questions. There are those more than willing to help and those who don't/won't. You will learn who they are just by reading what they post. Also, if there is activity in the tropics your question may not get answered - just ask it again.
there seems to be an ULL approaching 93L.
I'm glad to see research going into intensity. I wonder if that specially outfitted plane isn't the other NOAA hunter plane that was going to be used on pollution research.

I see 93L better organized since it is getting to be, kinda more of 1 surface low instead of 3. It looks terrible from lack of convection. We're just approaching the time of night to see if it will build again. Without convection for too long, it will die. Wait & see.
1136. will40
u r welcome Edith
Well, it seems that the tropics are going to sleep tonight, so I will too. I will see some of you in the am and we'll see what the day has instore for us. Good night to all..
I agree 23, I don't expect much from 93L at all. But, if something were to form you can easily see the NW movement and then a west track as the ULL passes west and High Pressure builds in.
By the way Skyepony, maybe Randy would know about the plane. Check with him.
1141. edith
Nite, AllyB.
From the NHC

THREE SFC LOWS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE FRONT. THE
ERN-MOST LOW IS 1014 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N61W. THIS LOW IS VERY
WEAK AS IT IS MAINLY A SMALL LOW CLOUD SWIRL WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MORE ORGANIZED TO THE E OF THE LOW ALONG THE FRONT
. A
1012 MB LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 29N74W AND A 1013 MB LOW IS ANALYZED
NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. THESE SYSTEMS ARE MORE ACTIVE
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-30N W OF 73W TO
S FLORIDA. AT THE MOMENT...THE 1012 MB LOW HAS A MORE
DISCERNIBLE LOW-MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. MODELS KEEP THIS AREA
RATHER STATIONARY OR DRIFT IT NWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BROAD LOW PRES AREA
AS UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME GRADUALLY MORE FAVORABLE.
Not a ULL 23 just a waek surface low
Weak that is.
I agree SW, 94L should clear some substantial ground for later in the week.
I did leave a question or 2 about it at Randy's but Masters keeps up good with the hunter's planes. He used to be a hunter too so I figured I'd pose the question both places.

23~ good point on the ULL it looks like it is just starting to move this way. Many of the GFS solutions early on played this out, that ULL shreading & then shoving the resulting remenent low back to the west.
My bad progressive i meant to say surface low...its been a long night for me.
There is a weak ULL east of 93L. It started out just N of Hispanolia before the front came down. Headed N & then E as it weakened considerably. You can see it on the GFS 300vort. It's not on the 850 vort.
I would put the ULL around 27N 72W. That's well east of the ERN-MOST LOW IS 1014 MB CENTERED NEAR 29N61W. We'll have to see if it picks up pace to the west or not.
Hey skyepony i like that loop can you post me a link of the website were you got it.thanks

Here is one of my favorite Websites...CLICK HERE
It looks like the ULL has just started tracking NW. From the WV I posted in the last comment. The big view I posted earlier threw me to thinking a west track.
23~The last one I posted?
You are correct skye and 23. Visible HERE

Who cares who is really who. I thought what mattered was the content, as pertains to "tropical weather discussions".

Sorry, sleepy and slightly surly ;)
Yea skyepony...did you see the website i left you?here it is again.

NEXLAB
Looks like 93L is under 20kts of shear or so there PP, no wonder it's naked. This map says near 0, lol. If there was only some accuracy all the time. Though it's starting to fire up for the night in a minimul late way. May hang around another day, may not. ZZZZZZ
23~ I bookmarked it.
Point A and B appear to be still battling tonight, A being the Bahamas and B being NE of the Bahamas. 18Z gfs had a good picture of this, night all.
00ZGFS has an even better picture.
NHC 2:05am Discussion on 94L...

THE 1012 MB BROAD SURFACE LOW IS JUST S OF THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS NEAR 14N22W ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. TROPICAL FORMATION IF IT DOES OCCUR WILL BE SLOW AS
THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY SLIGHTLY MARGINAL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES W
AT 15-20 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA
FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 17W-25W WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY MOVING
OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.


NHC 2:05 am Discussion on 93L

THE DEEP LAYERED
TROUGH FROM LAST NIGHT HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD COVERING THE W ATLC
N OF 30N FROM 55W-70W. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS INTO
THE REGION NEAR 32N50W THROUGH A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 28N62W TO
A WELL ESTABLISHED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N74W THEN AS A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH A 1013 MB LOW OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR
27N78W CONTINUING W ACROSS S FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM S
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH W OF 73W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND AND
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT E OF THE 1014 MB LOW
.




motion with 94L has shifted to the west...maybe a cause for concern later down the road if the system remains weak.

of course that's if it survives.
anybody awake to comment this?
looks like its trying to get its act together
wow no one on hee tonight and 93L is getting its act together pretty good lol any one home ???
miami dude why are you in here starting trouble
So - on the loop it appears 93l just crossed the frontal boundary.
I'm starting trouble? Excuse me, I was unaware that speaking the truth and exposing a fraud was "starting trouble".

After lurking on this site for a year now and enjoying it, I've lost all respect for it tonight. Do any of you have any integrity or care about right and wrong? You can all start a Hurricane23 or Adrian fan club if you want. I'm outta here.
ill tell you what if you have a problem with some one on here send them a message not on the blog i have been on here and i have seen the stuff that gets started by this and i think its stupied leave that stuff out of the blog please
Look at the east coast disturbance guidance its change significantly along with the position.
Low sfc pressures in the Bahamas


Caribbean


Florida


Cape Verde
Morning ya'll. Looks like all of the models are still initialized wrong to me. I agree with Pulse that the GFS has shown the two areas fighting each other, but it never really seperates them. I think it will seperate them today and by 2pm est we should have a much better set of model runs.

1911-I think Miami is right here. I have not seen him/her causing any trouble on here previously, as well as having seen others who strongly believe what he is saying about 23 plagerizing posts. One minute 23 will be waxing philisophical about troughs and cold core ULLs the next he/she/it is asking where to find the central caribean water vapor loop from NOAA....Just does not add up.

Off to work...Ya'll have a great day.

StormJunkie.com Quick Links for fast easy navigation of some of the most used sites with imagery, models, preparedness info, and much more.
IMHO some folks are being overly prissy on the "who wrote what" isse. This is neither Academia nor journalism. Instead, it's an exchange of information among people with a common interest who bring a wide variety of backgrounds and knowledge. It's the quality of the information, regardless of source, that's important to me and probably most others.

I'm not terribly troubled if someone amalgamates or even "borrows" good information elssewhere and compiles it in a helpful way here. If we require sourcing and footnotes as some imply, our eyes would get tired before we got halfway through a page.I'm not defending plagerism in any form-- simply suggesting there are levels at which it really doesn;t matter. It's time for the nitpicking witch hunters to give it a break, get a life, and go fight something meaningful so the rest of us can go back to lerning and having fun. If I want to bicker, I'll get remarried...
lol WB...And I agree with you as I think most others do. We all share others info in one form or another.

This particular issue seems to be more of a copy and paste issue though, and when asked about statements made said subject can not elaborate on them at all.

See ya'll later
SJ
Enough of this though. We have a potential area of development off the E coast and this is where our focus should lay.

See ya'll later
The tropocs are reversed this year.. As soon as a wave comes off Africa and enters the warm water it dies out immediately. They look more impressive over land!
1179. KRL
Posted By: G35Wayne at 6:26 AM EDT on August 15, 2006.
The tropocs are reversed this year.. As soon as a wave comes off Africa and enters the warm water it dies out immediately. They look more impressive over land!


GOOD! I hope it stays that way!
Can someone tell me how 93L is doing this morning?
93L fading quickly. UL winds actually becoming less conducive for development. Appears on satellite imagery that the low pressure at the surface is beginning to open up. I guess we'll have to wait awhile more for things to become less hostile for cyclonic formations this year. Wouldn't it be ironic to have a record setting season one year, then a below average season the next. Talk about a spike on a line graph!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL

DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER N CENTRAL FLA TODAY AND
INTO THE GULF WED.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL

PRIMARY LL CIRCULATION LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE STATE
CONTINUES TO SHOW BETTER DEFINITION ON SAT IMAGERY AND CONVECTION
ASCD WITH A SMALLER SECONDARY AREA OVER NRN BAHAMAS HAS FLOUNDERED
AT BEST.
WED...MODELS ACTUALLY ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A WEAK
LOW MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD EAST OF THE AREA...WITH ASSOCIATED BAND
OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WORKING BACK NORTHWARD. THE ETA/NAM/WRF
SHOWS THE MOST ORGANIZATION WHILE THE GFS/UKMET ARE ABOUT 5 MB
WEAKER.
I know I'm late coming into this but RIGHT ON Weatherbubba!! Its been called to everyone's attention and things do seem to be changing as sources are now being cited. Time to let it die and enjoy all the information and frienships being shared.

Our local weather channel Bay News 9 commented on all three systems we've been looking at. The Channel 8 news only commented on the one off of Florida and said the rest of the tropics was quiet. Kind of made me laugh. Would be nice to at least address them in some way.

Wow it is picking up. TWC says 93 is expected to develop and move NW slowly. They said lookout NFl to Carolinas. Also I see the Gulf system developing too. Interesting that is not the end of it. Just east of the windwards is another suspect area as well as our CV wave which looks real interesting. CV could make a impact on N Amer. in a couple wks. Got alot of driving to do today.
Hey Rand, how does the weather look on your side of Florida? Are ya'll getting anything bad? Its a little cloudy here and projected to rain (what else is new) but its not too bad, at least not now.
The main center of 93l looks to be getting into an area of less shear. It looks to me like a ull moved past it last night.
watergal, you get rain in your part of FL? You must be farther south than me. We're bone dry here in N FL. Aside from Alberto, I've measured only a little over 2 in. since April! Even gave up on the garden a couple months ago.
flwatergal ....Haven't had the first drop of rain. Forecast today for normal 30% risk. Nice breeze yesterday from the E kept temps a bit cooler. You could say no effect here from anything offshore.
1189. ricderr
Good morning boys and girls....IMHO....it would seem that with certain posts being pulled and others left on the board WU has shown what they feel is important and I believe it to be do not say anything derogatory about anyone. This is WU's board and they have that right. it's their money..and money talks....and anyways..as a famous person said.....
it's not what you know that's im portant..but HOW YOU LOOK..and you my fellow bloggers...YOU LOOK MAHHHHVELOUS>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
1190. BigToe
Good Morning Mr. and Mrs. America and all the ships at sea,
That line was BORROWED from an old radio show, by the way.... Tropics, looks like they are turning the corner. Seems like we will have a much busier time this week. Get the floaters warmed up in the bullpen and make sure that you stay tuned. Could get bumpy.
BigToe lurks
Hey cyclogenesis, I'm due west of Tampa on the coast. We had a nice storm come through on my drive home from work yesterday. No dry weather here but they are saying we have less rain this year than last. I know when I first moved here we had major drought conditions. The past few years knocked that out of the park. Hopefully, we will not see anymore years like that. :)

I think I just broke the code,,,
Hurricanes-- Grade A Party Poopers that they are-- are waiting on football season to work their wrath. What better way to vent their chaos than to destroy a bunch of stuff AND screw up several perfectly good football games in a year in which most of the Florida teams are greatly improved? They're even nastier than I thought...
Mornin Y'all. Up much earlier today. Practicing for school, which starts tomarrow for me. 94L doesn't look nearly as good today, and based on how far it is north, it looks like it will recurve into the atlantic, affecting no one except mayby the Cape Verde Islands.

LInk
1194. ricderr
(cough cough )...greatly improved?....lol...thinkin here.....dem florida football teams...are praying for storms...only way they won't have an " 0 fer "
year.....go NINERS
Ah okay.....Tampa area does see much more rain than us. I was down there in Largo a few weeks ago and it poured. I was watching the local news last night and they said Gainesville is down 9 inches this year. I thought to myself if they are down that much, I don't want to know my deficit, because even they get more rain than me :(
this is from the weather discussion for NC

BIGGEST SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE SYSTEM NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. ITS
UNCHANGED FOR NOW...BUT THAT COULD QUICKLY CHANGE. A PLANE WILL FLY
RECON INTO THE SYSTEM LATER TODAY. GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN ALL BRING IT
NORTH...BUT DO SO IN DIFFERENT WAYS. GFS SHOWS WEAK CLOSED LOW WHICH
IT BRINGS TO THE NC COAST. CANADIAN DEVELOPS A WEAK LOW THAT MOVES
NORTH...PASSING EAST OF HATTERAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER SOLUTION IS OFFERED BY THE ECMWF WHICH STALLS THE LOW OFF
THE NC/SC BORDER. WRF IS THE ONLY MODEL TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOP
OF THE SYSTEM. NOT PLACING MUCH STOCK IN IT THOUGHT...ITS MORE
RECENT TROPICAL PERFORMANCES HAVE NOT BEEN MEMORABLE.

GIVEN ALL THE POSSIBLE SCENARIOS DECIDED TO GO WITH SOMETHING
SIMILAR TO THE GFS WITH WEAK SURFACE LOW INTERACTING WITH FRONT IN
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 40 AND KNOCKED A
DEGREE OR TWO OFF TEMPERATURES. IF THE LOW/WAVE DOES MOVE THIS WAY
POPS WILL NEED TO BE MUCH HIGH ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
SYSTEM...IN WHATEVER FORM IT TAKES...INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE
FRONT.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
EARLY PORTION OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS A CRAP SHOOT AS WHAT
HAPPENS IS GOING TO DEPEND ON JUST WHAT THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE
BAHAMAS DOES. NOT SOLD ON MUCH...IF ANY...DEVELOPMENT AT THIS POINT.
THINK IT WILL MOVE NORTH/NORTHWEST AS AN OPEN WAVE OR WEAK SURFACE
LOW AND INTERACT WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.
HAVE NOT MADE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO LONG TERM DUE TO LARGE
AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. WILL WAIT FOR 12Z HPC GUIDANCE TO ADJUST
FORECAST/GRIDS.

what's that blob out in the gulf doing this morning? looks kinda interesting on infrared loop.
Gulf Loop

Link
Full Atlantic Loop

Link
1200. BigToe
Thanks amazin,
I like that forecasters way with words...
1201. C2News
in long term......where does florida disturbance go? (I am in NE Florida!)
1202. IKE
Good mornin cyberspace...looking at the models..ha-ha...none of them, that I saw, do much of anything with 93L or 94L.

NAM model has a 1008 MB low south of DR/PR in 84 hours..cruising west.

The 2006 hurricane season so far..the year that couldn't...hope it continues.....
Disturbance N of the Bahamas and the Florida disturbance are the same one.

Link
GFS showing a large storm in the E. Pac. developing.

Link
1205. ricderr
ok folks...time to ask the experts..cus i'm blob watching...but..what's that big red looking thing coming off of louisanna
1206. guygee
Good Morning All! Regarding 93L, from the 8:05am Tropical weather discussion:

[...]
Atlantic Ocean...
cut off upper low/trough is in the W Atlc from 32n78w SW across the Florida Peninsula with a surface trough extending from a 1013 mb low near 29n75w SW through a 1012 mb low over the N Bahama Islands near 27n78w continuing W across the Florida Keys into the Gulf of Mexico.
[...]


06UTC NAM looks to have initialized northern low too weak, and southern low over the Bahamas slightly north of current position. O6UTC GFS loses the low pressure centers altogether.

Conditons are looking a little less favorable to me, with low pressure centers sandwiched between stronger dry ULL in the vicinity of North Florida, and weaker ULL still evident that has moved north from Hispaniola into the vicinity. Southern Bahamas surface low pressure looks to be too close to the FL ULL and the northern surface low looks to have more convection at this time. I think a key thing to watch today is the movement of the Florida ULL, whether it stays fairly stationary or moves more west towards the Gulf. Still a chance for 93L development, but slowly evolving situation for today.
I just looks like thunderstorms to me, but after the last two years, every blob of thunderstorms needs to be watched.
: )
1208. ricderr
i thought so too hurricane..but wanted wiser minds than mine telling me that before i dismissed it
Tropical Storms in W. Pac.

Link

One looks like it is shearing the other apart.
Here is what the wiser minds say.

Link
: )
good morning all how is every one
Here is the genisis chance for the Atlantic

Link
I'm doing very well, thank you mahep1911.
1214. guygee
Ricderr - Here is waht the New Orleand NWS forecasters say about the Gulf convection in the early morning AFD:
[...]
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A STALLED FRONT AN UPPER LOW AND A STRONGLY INVERTED TROUGH. THE UPPER LOW CLOSEST TO FLA WILL MOVE WEST WHILE THE UPPER LOW FARTHER WEST WILL STAY NEAR THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR THE GA/AL/TN BORDERS IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LOW CLOSEST TO FLA CAUSING A STRONGLY DIVERGENT AREA ALOFT WHERE THE TWO RELATIVE FLOWS SPLIT. THIS IS HELPING TO INDUCE LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS. IT IS ALSO CAUSING AN AREA OF VERY WEAK SHEAR ALOFT OVER AND AROUND 28N 88W. THIS IS WHERE SH/TS CONTINUE TO FESTER OVER THE GULF. MODELS CONTINUE TO MOVE THIS AREA SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW AND EVEN CREATE A CONVECTIVE SFC CIRCULATION WITH IT EVENTUALLY. PLACEMENT OF CIRCULATION DEPENDS ON WHICH MODEL ONE LOOKS AT. NO MATTER WHERE OR IF A CIRCULATION DEVELOPS IT WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH THE UPPER LOW CREATING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT...BUT THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE COURSE AND STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LOW.
[...]
looks lke 93L has been loosing some punch but looks like its trying to get its act together further east and north from yesterday lol cant turn you back for amin here any more
1217. nash28
Good morning everyone. How is 93L doing?
Current wind shear and tendency

Link
1220. IKE
On WV loop...I see that ULL right over peninsula Florida.

There are so many lows around....I must admit...I'm confused!
Tis the season of ULLs
1222. nash28
I'm with you Ike. It's enough to make your head spin.
1224. IKE
There's a low at about 27.5N, 72.5W...

There's another low at about 21N, 55W..appears to be moving west.
1225. IKE
I've never seen so many ULL's and lows floating around.

How can anything develop amongst all of that?
Full Atlantic WV.

Link

Just to make everyone's heads spin
: )
1227. IKE
Look at how the models have shifted above/below for 93L!!!!

My guess...no recon today.

93L...where is it?
1228. IKE
Posted By: 1900hurricane at 7:25 AM CDT on August 15, 2006.
Full Atlantic WV.


I see that...

What I don't clearly see is...what happened to the Bermuda ridge?????

No wonder nothings developing!
1232. ricderr
ok......another questions for the blogging sages.....seeing that almost all the models show 93L making landafall at the florida georgia border...is that significant?
1233. IKE
Posted By: ricderr at 7:33 AM CDT on August 15, 2006.
ok......another questions for the blogging sages.....seeing that almost all the models show 93L making landafall at the florida georgia border...is that significant?


My guess...93L heads slowly north, then gets forced back to the west or SW by building high pressure.

Whatever 93L develops into, it is likely to move that way

Experts
Location of the Bermuda High

Link
1900.. you're all over things this morning. Good job.
1238. nash28
Model consensus is still mostly into FL. for 93L.
See Y'all later! I have more summer things to do before school starts tomarrow.
: (
1241. guygee
Looks like the NHC switched on 93L again and initialized the 8 AM BAMM, BAMD, A98E and LBAR models using the more northern surface low. BAMD shows movement towards Daytona Beach, LBAR N then NE, the other models show looping/nearly stationary. Since the system not well developed at this time, I think the current model runs could change significantly depending on just where the dominant surface low develops (if it develops much at all).
Mornin everyone, so where is that Gulf blob going to go?
1243. nash28
Good morning Gulf!
94L is gone
1245. Melagoo
Geeze those models look like someone throwing a dart in the dark .... for Pete's sake its a guessing game
1247. IKE
Thanks for the links 1900hurricane...and good morning everybody else....

GS...guess you weren't BS-ing about a system south of Mobile. Excuse me for saying you were teasin yesterday.
nop 94L is gone from the navy site
1251. 21N71W
hello to all
what about the PR blob lurking.....
Scottsman, the gfs had a low forming in the gulf for one run the other day. The next run busted it up. Certainly something to keep an eye to, while things look to want to fire up some convection this morning.
1254. nash28
Could be Gulf.
Good morning all...
Gulf, did you get any storms from the "Blob"? It split in my area; all storms were east and west of me.
Are you sure that you didn't conjure this up just so we could have something to talk about today?
I'm on the Mississippi Coast. How far south are we talking?
Even though I get more and better info here, the TWC didn't mention the Gulf blob @ 7:50.

Well, at least the hurricane hunters are back in Biloxi if we need them here!!
Hey Ally, we just need to keep an eye open now.
Good Morning All..Slim pickins out there today....we will probably have to wait a few days (towards the end of the week) to see if anything develops out of any of the blobs out there.
You are right PascMiss..hopefully the blob will drift SW and dissipate. This would effect no one.
I hope I have this right. We have a massive threat looming just 150 miles south of the gulf coast in the Gulf of Mexico and it just so happens that the NHC and TWC don't have anything to say about it and, lo and behold, Dr. Master's has not deemed it important enough to drop in and even post a message about it on the blog or update the blog. I think I might put off evacuation plans for awhile yet. In fact, I think I might just have another bourbon.
dr neil frank here in houston thinks it could be an issue over the weekend for the upper tx coast. have to wait and see he says
that blob that is in the gulf came out of Alabama last night if im not mistaken, odds are it wont go back north it would probably go west correct?
what will that high pressure that is just off the LA coast do to it?
Walrus: Dr. Masters doesn't usually post until about 10 a.m.
New blog!
Caribbean


Florida


Cape Verde
scottsman you are a fool there is nothing developing in the gulf of mexico....like i told all of you their is entirely to much shear and dry air for anything to organize and it will be like this for at least 2 more weeks...scottsman the low that you are seeing south of mobile is and upper level low...dont go scaring people on the gulf coast please!!!!!!!!!im having A GREAT vacation dont mess it up for me with your obsurd low in the gulf....now back to some good fishing....StormTop
ok i give up, its not even noon and i haven't been drinking yet, what is going on with the blogs, 8/14 dr jeff up again and posts from 8/14, i'm old and have eye issues but they are not that bad, yet....... jo
Where is Dr. Masters? Things are jumping in the east Atlantic.