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Watching the waters near Florida

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:03 PM GMT on August 13, 2006

Heavy thunderstorms are on the increase in the waters east of Florida this morning along an old cold front that pushed off the coast. Wind shear is 10 knots along this old front, and is forecast to remain 10 knots or lower through Tuesday. This is low enough to allow some development to occur, and we'll have to watch this area closely. Most of the computer models are forecasting that something will develop along the front, as early as Monday. The models are very uncertain about where such a development might go. If something develops relatively close to Florida, the preferred track appears to be across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. A more northerly track towards the Carolinas is also one of the model solutions. If something develops further from Florida, the preferred track is northeastward towards Bermuda. We'll just have to wait and see where the focus of development may be along the old front.


Figure 1. Current satellite of the Florida region.


Figure 2. Preliminary models tracks for the East Coast disturbance.

Tropical wave near Barbados
A tropical wave near Barbados is producing heavy rain in the southern Lesser Antilles Islands today as it moves westward at 10-15 mph. Barbados has reported some heavy rain with this system, but winds have been below 20 mph on the island, and the QuikSCAT satellite did not see any winds over 20 mph in a 6:14am EDT pass today. While the wave is an area of low wind shear (5-10 knots), it is embedded in a large area of dry air, which should keep development slow today. Wind shear is expected to remain below 10 knots in the Eastern Caribbean through Tuesday, so the wave has some potential for development once the dry air surrounding it becomes more dilute.


Figure 3. Preliminary models tracks for the Barbados tropical wave.

I'll have an update this afternoon if changing conditions warrant; otherwise, see you Monday morning!

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Ajcamsmom, yall are in my prayers good luck to you and your family
I hate to admit it, but, I cry everytime the Pass gets into my head...I cry everytime I visit...I walk around my now gone homes and look for treasure...you know...a piece of my countertops, an old coffee cup, a trinket from my walls...I found my kids razor and brought it home to him...a friend his found his sailboat behind his grandfathers fema trailer almost a year later...earlier one of my friends had found his trailer, but someone stole it before she could pick it up...then, she found a picture of my son in almost perfect condition and sent it to me. I found my neighbors welcome sign from by their door and gave it to them...my other neighbors son's tricycle was sitting in the driveway where it was left...but, there house was gone...I had a neighbor that used to drive thru my neighbor and my yards to get to the beach road...my neighbor's car ended up on top of where the jerks house used to be...have another friend whose sailboat he lived in ended up in perfect conditions stuck between two trees with everything where he left it...My parent's lost a lot of friends...My babies teacher still has not found her mom and brother...
My houses were in Jackson Colony...on West Beach Blvd...0.7 miles from the harbor heading toward Henderson Point...Next door to the Dane's and Emeril...
ajcamsmom.....Word's can't begin to describe the feelings that I'msure you've gone through and are going through. My hopes and prayers are with you and your's.
Jebekarue thanks for your prayers...I am a lot better off then a lot of people...the Pass really needs a lot of prayers...no income base anymore...it is in real bad shape and it is the most wonderful place in the world...the nicest people you would ever want to meet, I love them so very much and miss them more then words can ever express...I feel like my heart has been ripped out of me and there is nothing I can do...
I have family that live in New Orleans, took us 6 weeks to hear from them, fortunatly everyone was ok, some damage, no flooding, they were lucky. That was the hardest 6 weeks of my life, i couldnt imagine still waiting to hear...My sister has friends that live there and they are still rebuilding, 12 foot ceilings water went up about 10 feet into the house
CatChaser......after reading that are you still rooting for another storm to hit so that you can make some money? We can't control what nature does.....but we can control our own thoughts. Give it a shot.
good friends had summer home in JC. it is very depressing in th pass right now. I spent three years remodeling grandfathers house we moved in Jan 2005. it was only 150 yrs old at least i got 8 months of good living. Am about to start rebuilding as soon as i can get contractor of his @#%
The New Orleans area is horrible...I drove there from the Pass a few weeks ago, and just can not imagine how they will rebuild...It is a different kind of horrible from the Pass, in the Pass everything is gone...in New Orleans, it is there, but it is ruined...
aj...check your mail on here I sent you something
At least we have a mayor now.
The Pass, how did you find a contractor? Are you able to live in your house? I have applied with the Square Foot builders to get something that I can move into...was told to come to the zoning office for a list of people to help me...will try to head over there in the next couple of weeks...
Good Night All.....

Tomorrow I'll discuss the monsoon trough that has been active off the Coast of Africa, and some of the signs that its extending more into the Atlantic.
Don't worry about me Cat. No obsession. I just remember history and I remember some disgusting comments you made after Katrina. Nothing but provacative comments while bodies were floating in the waters. You'll learn as you grow up. Worry about yourself.
I too am happy about the new Mayor...I heard Billy had a nervous breakdown after Katrina...is that true? I can see how that would happen...the first time I was allowed back in after the storm...well, I was numb for weeks
aj- contractor is the same who did my remodel. The corp took down the house on Mardi Gras day. jsut could not be salvaged. I tried. I guess it was fitting that that was the day. It took them a week to get it all down and carted off. very sad day.
I havnt been back over that way yet, I am a very tenderhearted person i couldnt imagine seeing it for one day much less everyday. It was hard enough seeing the damage around here and in my hometown after Ivan....you are a very strong person aj to be able to stay around...Home is home no matter what, and its hard to leave even in the face of destruction. Things will get better, it will take time, you will heal.
jebekarue...I replied...thank you so very much...I don't think people that have not experienced this will ever be able to understand...I know I never thought anything like this would ever happen
Tropical Wave 91L



Florida Disturbance

The Pass...I am very sorry for you...
I think billy was sick before the storm and Katrina just pushed him over top. the day after was shock and awe the year since has been just shock. am up in Dhead renting. hate it. can't wait to get back home.
Hi all, good evening How is 93L looking and where is it heading?
Jeb- take a look at the pic on my blog the day after. pics cannot describe the smell
Jebekarue, I am not in the Pass anymore, I wish I was...could not get a fema trailer...had to start my kids in school in Lafayette, LA...we are living with my husband...The house in the Pass was my mine...all mine...only thing I own in the world...two slabs and a bunch of debris in Pass Christian, MS...oh, and a part interest in a private road, pier and pool that will have to be replaced...
Trak it is trying to cut itself off from that front right now not much happening untill it can get away fromm it
Thanks will40 do to think this thing will hit SE Fl? :(
ThePass, I have a lot of friends in Diamondhead...that is where my contractor was from...were you a member of PCYC? They said a lot of the members have not renewed...my kids love it...went a couple of Sundays ago and picked up some t-shirts..."rebuilding the spirit of the Pass"...some caps and stuff too...went to Ship Island on the big boat...my kids had a blast on the Island...but, when we got home, my son wanted to fish at the beach in front of my lot and I was too scared to let him get in the water...
incredible pics pass, its amazing i have pics on my blog from Ivan just of my parents house and what use to be a building between 2 buildings reduced to rubble...it surprises me how some trees get uprooted while others just have the tops snapped off
I've been on the Mississippi coast and NO too - just like what is being said - different kinds of damage - both unbelievably bad. Prayers for all!!! When you're there, you get beyond all the politics and mental theories and just see the complete tragedy of it - words can not even begin to communicate it - and it's much worse if it's where you grew up - your roots. It also makes you realize the importance of getting to the root of things in a positive way - of starting over - of forgiveness - of finding ways that all of us can work together. Well, sorry if that got too philosophical, it's time for bed for me now, good night all.
nobody has a hold on it at the present theres still a lot of ways it could go if it even developes my conditions are reminding me a lot like Ophelia last year the models are all over everywhere which is understandable being that there is nothing formed yet.
haven't been member in quite a while but grew up watching tom parker throw his cast net off the pier. saw that edie won her race knost is this weekend buccaneer was leading today
hopefully the florida blob will head out to sea and not affect anyone...Jim Cantore stay away from the Gulf Coast!!!!! LOL
Link link to the navy site if you want to look at it
Well i'm off to bed have to get up early and go to work...yall have a good night and God Bless
Thanks will, Are you a meteroloigist (sorry spelling SUCKS) :0)
Gnite Jeb
No Trak but i live up on the NC coast and i like to at least keep up with them lol
LMAO JP
You should become one, you sound very safisticated not that you aren't. You sound professinal as i said my spelling sucks bid tim
Naw Retired Military here and tooooooooo old for a career change lol
hello
Hi Taz
well 92L and 93L look gone right now but they may come back but will see look like t-storm are trying to come back with 92L
I saw where Randy said that they were staying overnite and may get a call tomorrow for recon but he didnt know which one if any
hi will40
Hey taz
tomorrow being Monday darn i forgot how late it is lol
ThePass, you have mail...night all
any one her like to join me on my blog? if so this hit my name
hey hurricaneTrak
==================================
West Pacific
===================================

Storm ID: T0610

Japan Meteorological Agency (10 minute mean average)
Tropical Storm ウーコン (Wukong) 26.6 N 137.7E 45 knots 985 hPa


Joint Typhoon Warning Center (1 minute mean average)
Tropical Storm 11W

Storm Status
Tropical Storm 11W has sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 55 knots (65 mph)

Warning Alert #7
Tropical Storm (TS) 11W located Approxiately 565 NM (1,050 KM) southeast of Sesebo, Japan moving northwest at 4 knots
==========================================================


Storm ID: T0611

Japan Meteorological Agency (10 minute mean average)
Tropical Storm ソナムー (Sonamu) 18.3N 130.8E 35 knots 996 hPa


Joint Typhoon Warning Center (1 minute mean average)
Tropical Depression 12W

Storm Status
Tropical Depression 12W has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots (45 mph)

Warning Alert #2
Tropical Depression (TD) 12W located Approxiately 500 NM (930 KM) southeast of Naha, Okiwana moving east at 14 knots

PAGASA
Tropical Depression Katring

the center's sustained winds are 55 km/h (30 knots)

Advisory Number 1
The active low pressure area east of Central Luzon has developed into a tropical depression and was named "KATRING".


==========================================================
: HadesGodWyvern there you are get in my blog you what have a nic talk
This season sucks.

Thats all I wanted to say.
NOAA has found 97W.INVEST as a Sub-Tropical Storm.. so the NRL didn't skip this number as it appears they had.
winter, I'll take the whole season this way, thankyou very much.
The last two have been brutal to my State as well as others in the region...
oops Sub-Tropical Depression like storm
JP- I agree that 93L will be the ticket, I moved here from Ak in 04 and became interested in tropical weather... 05 was a phenominal year and it's true, we can't hold our expectations up to that year. Do you think it will get cranking here in the next month?
Its too dry this year. Looking at the IR loop over the SE is like watching a desert at night. The system off Florida is interesting.
ummmmmmmm JP did you stay in a Holiday Inn Express last nite?
Tx where did u live in Ak?
heh if you want to see action look in the West Pacific

I mean "Prapiroon, Maria, Saomai, Bopha, Wukong, and Sanamu" all formed or were active in this month. (6 named storms and today is only the 14th day of this month)
no they wernt the one i was in had vacancys
Actually the thing off Florida is kinda lame now.
once the system breaks from the front it will have a better chance

what will? the front?
Hahha sorry, thanks jp hopefully it will bring rain.
Good evening guys just checking in for a bit.ive been out with my girl all day,i just got home from dinner.

anyway i was just looking at some IR imagery and 93L seems to have lost a great deal of its convection.

There is not much out there right now but here are some models for 93L.


NHC 2:05AM Discussion...

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E ATLC IS ALONG 26W S OF 17N MOVING W 15
KT. WELL DEFINED LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 20N WITH A 1011 MB SURFACE
LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 13N MOVING W 15 KT. WELL DEFINED
INVERTED V SIGNATURE CURVATURE IS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. HOWEVER
THE LOW POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
13N-18N INCLUDING SOME OF THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER DRY ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL FEATURES.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 87W S OF 20N MOVING W
15-20 KT. WAVE APPEARS WELL DEFINED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N W OF 85W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A RATHER
DRY ENVIRONMENT WITH THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES.
JFlorida, sorry I had to restart my system.. I lived on Kodiak Island from 2000-04.
Good night guys....Tropics are quiet for now,lets see what tommorow brings.

The activity we have seen so far in 2006 is very typical for a normal season.I expect a ramp up in activity in the coming weeks, i hope everyone has taken advantage of all this quiet time and put together a hurricane plan for their familys.Have a wonderful evening guys Adrian
Tropical Wave



Florida Disturbance

"A 1,146-year-old temple in Fuding has also been destroyed by Saomai, collapsing its gate house and more than 20 other buildings.
The typhoon blew away almost all the roof tiles of Ziguo temple, which was built in 860 during the Tang Dynasty, on the Lianfeng Mountain." - Shanghai Daily ------ And I was upset about Jeff Davis's house in Biloxi! How many typhoons had that temple been through before this one?
Crap. I didn't expect to be on here this early, but good morning everyone.
I never want to see the people of the gulf coast and atlantic coast go thru a peapeat of 05'. I wouldn't wish that on my worst enemy. Lets enjoy it while it lasts. I'm off to bed now night everyone.

Charles R.
repeat*
good morning nash28, hows things on your side of tampa?
Quiet thus far. Didn't get the rain we needed yesterday, but hopefully today will be different.
Ugh. I want to go to bed so bad, but I have to be up in an hour so there's no point :(
Good evening guys just checking in for a bit.ive been out with my girl all day,i just got home from dinner.

h23, weren't you here at 4...6..and 8 pm?.....

Morning Ricderr.
morniing nash.....actaully..it's only about 3 here...but i'm on east coast time....fell asleep watching the game...got through the first qtr.....so..nothing different than if i was home
Well, I am in Tampa but I have been up since 1:30am. I got sick of tossing and turning so I said screw it, I'll go to work REALLY early.
i can understand that.....6 hours and i'm fine....as for work early...i have an 8 o'clock meeting...then a conference call...some paperwork..then...another twiddle my thumbs day..plenty of time to catch a nap if needed
good morning all how is every one this morning
im doing good, really nothing out there though to track
well thats a darn good thing i have had a busy past 2 seasons and i am looking forward to a slow one lol
So Turtle, looks like both systems may have fizzled before they even got going.
Lowest Pressure in all of Florida is on the east coast at Vero Beach this morning. Lots of storms off the Space Coast.
mightve nash, i never was impressed with them really.
whats the pressure there?
Looks like 92L (if it still even exists) might be getting itself into low areas of shear around 5kts today. Dry air is still an issue though.
yes dry air is an issue for both of them it looks like
Vero Beach 29.95" and Melbourne 29.96"
Melbourne is the only place in the state where the pressure is currently falling.
If either could find a pocket of moist air, they could take off. The dry air has been killing everything in the Carribbean.
Well, today both disturbances are unimpressive. They do have hope for the future however. I have updated about both disturbances on the

Tropical Weather Round-Up
Thanks for the updates Turtle. We'll see if 92 or 93L can fire up some consistant convection and get their acts together today.
some roads are closed here in S. florida do to flooding... and that doesn't happen to often here
I guess everyone is still asleep this morning.
Its raining. First time in a month. Tropics are beginning to wake up. Have a good day.
607. SLU
There's a strong tropical wave coming off Africa this morning and it might be INVEST 94L before the end of the day.
Morning ya'll!

Looks like 93L is trying to9 get some convection going. To me it looks like the latest burst of convection is right about where the closest thing to a center is. Will be interesting to see how it plays out today. The GFDL does not bring it much above TD strength, but the fact that it has been persistent in developing leads me to think something will develop. The GFS has also shown this system for some days now. Also of note is the good agreement on track for 93L between the GFS and GFDL.

StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind data, preparedness info and much more. Also check the Quick Links for fast and easy navigation of some of the most used sites.
SLU....you see charlie or dennis in them yet? :-)...good morning to you

turtle.....saw you have spirit air as an ad on your site...if i book with them through your site...does it help you?
HurricaneRoman- Where are roads closed?
611. IKE
WU's website is having issues again.........
From the MLB NWS discussion~
WILL KEEP
REINS ON ANY AGGRESSIVE DEEPENING FOR THE OFFSHORE LOW. PREFER TO
KEEP THE LOW ON THE WEAKER SIDE FOR NOW AND NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY...AND THEN DIRECT IT TOWARD GA WATERS IN COMING
PERIODS SIMILAR TO UKMET.
Hello i am new and I have a question.
Does 93L have a surface low?
92L is gone
Tropical wave is along 60w/61w S of 20n with a 1011 mb surface
low
along the wave near 13n moving W 15 kt. Well defined
inverted v signature curvature is on satellite imagery. However
the low position is based on surface observations
What's wrong with WU this morning?
617. IKE
Looks like convection is firing near the apparent center of 93L.
i think aron is working and puting in his new code for ues and get what he tslk about up and runing so that what may be going on
mornng everybody! :)




looks like things may get interesting off the SE coast....

a circ appears east of jacksonville, and SE of hatteras.....

i know Ga. seems a ggod possibility, nbut nothing hardle ever hits georgia... yea i know.... history doesnt matter.......

actually, i see two circulations off the SE coast.....

i assume the one closest to Fla. is 93L?
622. K8e1
methinks nobody on WU likes the new model runs
i've seen this trend for a while now
oooops whats happening with the website??
ahem.....cold core.....don't look....and of course the....i see you're finaly jumping on the bandwagon...after you poo pooed the storms off the nc coast on friday...lol.....morning to you
625. IKE
I think you're right thelmores...

I see 2 spins too.

The one closest to Florida/east of Daytona Beach is 93L.
626. K8e1
Thel
I'm in Wilmington
What do you thinks gonna happen with 93L
hey ric, i have no shame.....i will chase ANY swirl.... particularly if it's close to the carolina coast! :)

plus, i keep reminding people, i don't think Beryl starTed as a "warm core".....

but this scenario off the SE coast may be teeth-pulling slow to develop, and decide a path...... but it would seem that high pressure will build N at some point and "shove it" towards the coast.... whatever "it" is! LOL
HMMMM....the first part of my post...didn't post.....was directing that amusing comment to you thelmores....nice job on friday..figured you wouldn't gloat..you have class and such...so wanted to help you out....
They moved the floaters:) 1 is 92L reminents. 2 is 93L
you're right Gulf..... i should have made some coffee first! LOL

these first visible shots require AT LEAST one cup of coffee! :)
i think it all depends on where the center is which way it will move..and i wouldn't be at all surprised...if we saw a two way split..the amoeba effect..:-)
"was directing that amusing comment to you thelmores....nice job on friday..figured you wouldn't gloat...."

hmmm..... i just might gloat if i really knew what the h3ll I was talking about...... but i am also willing to grab my ankles when i am wrong! LOL
636. K8e1
'COLD CORE" is an old reliable automatic response here lately
ahem....watch and learn








I agree ric.....we could see one head nw and the other ne.....

will be interesting, but if the latest gfdl plays out, 93L is heading towards my house! LOL
Relative newbie here. Have been lurking for about a month, learning lots. Live 300yds off ocean in Cocoa Beach so thought if anything, could offer reports whenever season heats up.
We usually ride out what comes near--for some reason seldom lose power. Knocking on wood.
where do you live thelmores?
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 7:47 AM CDT on August 14, 2006.
est near 28N/77.8W

Wow! I was just looking that and saw your post.
K8, sry, missed your post.....

i will be anxious to see the new gfdl.... when is that 2pm???

K8, hard to say now, cause it is going to meander for the next 24hrs or so, then it depends when, where , and how strong the High builds in to the north of 93L.....
"where do you live thelmores?"

myrtle beach, sc

hey Gulf, are you trying to make us believe that 93L is heading towards your house, and not mine?? :)
New memeber from the FLA KEYS... will be happy to offer up any info on what goes by here this year.
The further SSE this goes the greater the chance it will eventually slide into the GOM as a Tropical Cyclone.

Yeah Gulf....that's what I'm seeing. Not a good thing.
Guys Look at this...I'll have more Info soon....Good Morning

Beachblogger welcome. I'm in Melbourne, tend to stay as well.

I set up a blog for us ECFl folks. You can click on my name to get there. Got some of our MLB NWS stuff up. If something threatens I'll be putting up all sorts of neat hurricane products they have.
Brrr...looks like a snow storm in the Bahamas.
boy..... the plot sure does thicken, doesnt it?????
652. PBG00
This thing is gonna sit and fester..could be another loopy nutjob of a storm that makes everyone crazy..
Thanks Skyepony. Good to have a local on board. Will keep a check on your blog.
ok, gulf, you need to drop the "concern", because you never get "concerned" unless..........
hey florida keys radio..you wouldn't be with the radio station in big pine would you? can't think of their call letters
Yes, I would be... been here for only about a year... this will be my 2nd season... hoping to learn from last years' season on how to better handle our coverage this year.
appears to be a bit of a swirl shown off melbourne from this radar.

Link


both features seem drifting sse........
fantastic.....does allen church still do the sunday morning music?...and folks...best radio program.i've ever heard..is the morning bizbaz show...best deals and gab around...nice to have you here keysradio....there's a few guys that can give you a ton of information on here...me..i can just give you a hard time...take care
SWFLdrob...Thanks for that. It's showing up well on longrange NWS radar also.
Yes Alan is still on Sundays, now from 10am-12noon.... and BIZ BAZ is still on Mon-Sat mornings at 9. Classic Hits of the 60's, 70's & 80's the rest of the day. We're online too at www.us1radio.com
Thanks for the welcome... since arriving & going thru last year's storms that affected us, I've become a bit of a weather geek, and trying to learn what I can here.
hey evere 94L this show up on the nay site
Tazmanian...Thanks! That was a good looking wave this morning....SLU called an invest on that earlier this morning.
Way to catch it early Taz! No info on it yet. Was just there like 20 mins ago. I'm assuming what just rolled of Africa? Suprised they didn't wait a day or more on that.
Hey guys. Did anyone else have a problem with the site earlier this morning?
that was fast
Skyepony...Morning. Somewhere in TWD they mentioned a low was already there in that wave coming off. Dead giveaway! Anyway things are busy today!
i did
674. MahFL
GulfScotsman, intersesting observation, lets see if it comes true. I am near JAX FL.
Is it just me, or does that blob emerging from Africa look like a Cape Verde monster in the making? Looking forward to more from 456 - and Dr. Masters - on this one.
"where is everyone.??? off anlyizing?"

they are in school, or waiting for you to tell them what to think! LOL

94L

677. MahFL
The navy site says 94L is already at 30 kts, and its just emerged off of the African coast.........
hey randrewl looking to you to tell me when to panic, where's dr. j this am, wake up get your coffee and start jabbering for us jo
hey gulf..... you think there is a chance it could go through the straights, or cross the penn?

i just have a hard time thinking it can get far enough south to cross the straights..... seems more like to head w across the penn..... or nw towards the carolina coast..... course..... i'm just guessing (as always! LOL)
boy thats the fastes 94L they evere put up
hey thelmores thats a very strong wave, by the way 92l is regathering a little bit look at its loop.:)
Good morning all. I do a lot of lurking and only a little posting. What are the odds of the one off florida migrating into the gulf?
Anyone care to speculate?
HobeSoundShudders...Morning. No panic here but it is wild with this circulation just east of us that popped up. Turn on your Melbourne radar...longrange.
I dont know if I am right but the model text info for 94L shows that it will go to the north...
Boy, we'll all be popping the Xanex if all three of our "possible" systems crap out come the diurnal minimum.
The water vapor imagery shows a moist atmosphere surrounding 94L- this could mean the thunderstorms will hold together with this system, unlike the previous waves which looked impressive coming off the coast, but rapidly dried up.
hi, randewl that is a little too close for comfort UNLESS it just brings us a bath, everyone all around us got wet sunday, speaking of the invests, i use http://152.80.49.216/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi for the fnoc satelite data and only see 93L posted, is there a better, faster navy site, thanks jo
boy.... since the sun came up.....93L seems to have hit stride..... convection is starting to fire up pretty good!

that giant "blob" just off the fla. coast looks like it is being "sucked up" by 93L.....

i woulnt be a bit surprised to see a depression today from 93L..... i just have a "feeling" that 93L is going to fire up some major convection in the coming hours, and i agree with Gulf, convection getting closer to the center.....
Can not find 94L on the NRL imagery....Where the hell is it?
How did you get the navy site image guys? I click on the 94L link, but I don't get an image,
look at 94L It is already at 30 kts (35 mph) and 1008 mb. wow TD 4 on the way
Hobe~ Link They got some info on 94L up now.

Nash ~ 92L already crapped out, is no longer an invest.

That blob of rain right off the east coast needs to move on so I can go haul some hay!
Or TD 5 if the storm off the Florida Coast forms
Visible of 94L:

Morning thel...Looks like there is a chance that 93 will be sitting right in our back yard (literally) in a couple of days. Should be interesting to watch. Reminds me a little of Gaston..Not track wise, just formation and likely intensity.

Quick Links-Easily find the best forecast models, imagery, and other tracking info for the new invests.
wow thats looking good



you just knew that this was coming... didnt you! LOL

looks like 93L wants to spend a day in the bahammas to decide what it wants to do......

Not sure I have ever seen an invest that close to the African coast. Looks like a classic CV system though. Don't know what kind of conditions it will be facing in the coming days though.

See ya'll later. The 12Z runs of the models should be out between one and two. Will be very interesting to see what they have to say.

Don't worry, I got the image now. Yes, It's definately the most impressive system I've seen coming off the coast this year. I do have a question though. Typically, NHC doesn't acknowledge waves coming off Africa for at least 24 hours. Does anyone think this system's well organized appearance will convince NHC to include it in the next tropical weather outlook?
thankx randrewl, i get these sites and mark them with no idea of where i found them, i now marked this one, keep me posted, its is a zoo around here, phones started @ 7 with folks trying to close this week needing to move me forward i don't have time to do the posts so if you will cut & paste into my email if something critical i would appreciate it, jo
The center of 93L looks ALOT further south than the models have been initializing.
mornin SJ.....

my thoughts exactly when i saw the gfdl this morning..... but i think 93L may have a few curves in store.... in fact, you may be more likely to see 93L than me......

guess we'll have to see how far south 93L goes, and how the building high plays out.....
LOL Gulf....

some people can't see the forest for the tree's! :D
Hard to see 93L developing into much at the moment. Massive amount of dry air to the north of it will probably keep it from forming into much for the time being at least.
I would not be suprised to see it drift WNW then W. Not sure about the long track N then S. Depending on where and if it forms, I would not be a bit suprised to see it come in around GA.
impressive

94L is looking quite impressive, but it looks like 93L might be watering my thirsty plants soon!
Now that is a huge blob:



Compare to 93L:

HobeSoundShudders....10-4!
thankx Skyepony can anyone answer the question: is it the navy "job" to find/invest and nhc job to report? in other words, does nhc recognize a system because navy does an invest on it. do all these different resources all do the same work on a system or do they have "levels of responsiblity" jo
94L has 30kts winds or 35 mph and a 1008mb TD 4 today and TS tonight
"Now that is a huge blob:....Compare to 93L:"

yea..... but 94L is friggin "weeks" away...... anything could happen.... i dont care how impressive it is now...if it looks the same in the morning, THEN 94L may get my attention.....

having said all that. it does look mighty impressive atm!!!

where is the good Dr. this morning.... must be looking at the tea leaves! ;)
michael..it's not the size of the blob that counts...but it's relative nearness to your home
If 93L can stick around the low shear and hot GulfStream waters for awhile it's got a good shot at development despite the dry air. I just don't see it getting too organized, so I expect an Alberto-like storm. It's gonna have to do a lot of spinning in-place for anything to happen, though.
<<== consults Magic 8-Ball
man, 93L is getting quite a circ..... drawing in moisture from the gulf even.......
93L
A weak area of low pressure 1012 (strongest in the mid-layers of the atmosphere), associated with a stationary frontal boundary, has become better organized, in terns of structure. It has develop divergence aloft, which has started some convergence in the low levels, which could lead to the formation a surface low.

The Upper level Low, near the north central Bahaman Islands, has weakened enough to produce 0-20knots of shear of the area, allowing some further development, if other conditions allow.

If anything develops, it could either drift east and out to sea, remaining a threat to Bermuda, west towards Florida or Georgia, or northeast towards the Carolinas.

Surface observations and quicksat pass reveal there is a circulation with some strong winds. Pressures from stations nearby range from 1014-1017mbars.

Behind the frontal boundary is very dry air, which could limit development.

Tropical Wave (92L) located along 63W, moving west through the Caribbean Sea, has less organized. Showers and thunderstorms had diminished yesterday into overnight, due to the relatively dry environment. This morning there is some spotty showers associated with it but that has been caused by an Upper Level High Pressure north of it. That is high is creating 0knots of shear over the system but shear increases as it goes west to near 30knots, produce by the same upper level low north of the Bahamas.

This morning quicksat pass reveal no circulation associated with the tropical wave, and winds are relatively light.

Development is limited as shear is forecast to remain 16m/s in the next 48hrs.

Tropical off the African Coast (94L)
A well define and rather large wave has move off the African Coast this morning, the wave is embedded in the monsoonal trough rather than the ITCZ, which is causing an unstable atmospheric environment, leading to low pressure atmospheric pressures, and spinning in the lower levels (convergence.

The wave has a classic curvature signature, with both strong divergence aloft, and low level convergence.

The wave is sitting over above 80degress water, and winds shear of about 15-20knots.

Land-based surface observation near the wave:

Dakar, Senegal - 1012mbar/89% humidity.
Banjul, Gambia - 1012mbar/100% humidity.
Bissau, Guinea-Bissau - 1011mbar/94% humidity.

This wave could become our next depression.
Hey Y'all! I know the main focus is the atlantic, but here is the latest on Tropical storm Wukong and newly upgraded Tropical Storm Sonamu (Katring).
I'm within 75 miles of the circulation of 93L and my pressure is 1011MB. I don't know where these higher pressures are being reported?
Ask and you shall recieve....Dr M new blog is up
Pressure:1008mbar
Winds:35mph


W. Pac. Sat. Loop

Link
94L has a better chance of becoming a monster, like this storm (I think that 93L will become Ophelia 2 or something similar).
NEW BLOG IS UP