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Watching African Wave 91L; Rare September European Heat Wave Smashes Records

By: Jeff Masters 3:45 PM GMT on September 04, 2015

A strong tropical wave with plenty of spin and heavy thunderstorm activity (Invest 91L) moved off the coast of Africa on Thursday, and is headed west at 15 - 20 mph, on a path that will take it a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verde islands over the weekend. The 00Z Friday (8 pm EDT Thursday) runs of one of our top three models for predicting tropical cyclone genesis, the GFS model, showed development of 91L into a tropical depression by Tuesday midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 40% and 60%, respectively. The tropical Atlantic is relatively moist, has the highest sea surface temperatures of the year, and is expected to have low to moderate wind shear, conditions which favor development. The wave should take about 6 - 8 days to make it to the Lesser Antilles Islands.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Invest 91L off the coast of Africa taken at approximately 8:15 am EDT Friday, September 4, 2015. Image credit: NASA.

Fred barely alive
Tropical Depression Fred continues to barely hang on as a tropical cyclone in the waters of the Eastern Atlantic, but high wind shear is expected to kill Fred by Saturday. However, Fred could spring back to life in 3 - 5 days, when the storm will encounter lower wind shear and anomalously warm waters of 27.5°C (82°F), over 500 miles southwest of the Azores Islands. Fred could affect the Azores 6 - 7 days from now, but it is too early to judge the risks of this.

The remains of Tropical Storm Erika are still generating some disorganized shower activity off the Southeast U.S. coast, but high wind shear will prevent re-development.


Figure 2. From left to right: Typhoon Kilo, Hurricane Ignacio, and Hurricane Jimena spin across the Pacific Ocean as seen by Aqua/MODIS at 02:40 UTC September 3, 2015. Image credit: NASA.

A Busy Pacific for Tropical Cyclones
Four tropical cyclones continue to spin over the North Pacific, though none are expected to threaten land over the next five days. Tropical Storm Kevin in the Eastern Pacific, with top sustained winds of 60 mph at 11 am EDT Friday, is feeding moisture in the Southwest U.S. monsoon, and will contribute to isolated heavy rains over Arizona and New Mexico over the next few days. No flood watches or warnings were up on Friday for the anticipated rain, though. Kevin is expected to turn west and head out to sea, eventually succumbing to high wind shear and mid-level dry air. In the Central Pacific, Hurricane Jimena is slowly weakening, with top sustained winds of 85 mph at 11 EDT Friday. Recent runs of the GFS and European models continue to predict that Jimena will approach Hawaii from the northeast late next week as a tropical storm, and pass within 200 miles of the islands. Meanwhile, Hurricane Ignacio, now a Category 1 storm north of Hawaii, is weakening as it heads north towards the Gulf of Alaska. Ignacio is expected to transition to a powerful extratropical storm by Monday, and bring heavy rains to Britich Columbia on Tuesday. Long-lived Typhoon Kilo is now in its 15th day as a tropical cyclone, including a long spell as a major hurricane. Kilo is predicted to steadily re-intensify over the weekend, reaching Category 4 strength by Sunday as it moves on a westward path that will likely take it several hundred miles north of Wake Island. Kilo is likely to be around until at least September 11, and may pose a threat to Japan 6 - 7 days from now.

One "sleeper" system to watch is an area of disturbed weather in the Northeast Pacific located several hundred miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Slow development of this system is possible during the next several days as the low moves northwestward and gradually merges with another disturbance to its west. The models are not handling this merger well, and this system may end up being of concern to Mexico's Baja Peninsula. In their 8 am EDT Friday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 10% and 40%, respectively.

Rare September Heat Wave Scorches Europe
Meteorological summer is over in Europe, but a rare and extraordinarily intense heat wave has kept its grip on much of the continent during early September. Hundreds of European cities broke all-time September heat records the past three days; some stations with long periods of record exceeding a century saw their records smashed by 7 - 8°F--"a margin rarely seen before in the world," in the words of weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, who has been tabulating the new records.


Figure 3. Historians recover relics from the 17th century on the bed of the Vistula River in Warsaw, Poland on September 3, 2015. The water level of the Vistula, Poland's largest river, is at its lowest level since measurements began in 1789, due to severe drought conditions. The treasures being excavated were looted by an invading Swedish army in the mid-17th century and got buried in the Vistula when a Swedish barge sank. Jewish tombstones and wreckage from a WWII fighter plane have also been uncovered this summer from the Vistula and its tributaries due to the low water levels. Image credit: JANEK SKARZYNSKI/AFP/Getty Images.

September 1, 2015: a rare day in the annuals of climatology
The carnage began on September 1, with September national heat records falling in eight countries. Notably, the new national heat record set in Lithuania was more than 3°C (5.4°F) higher than the previous September record--an astonishing margin for a monthly national record in a nation with dozens of reliable stations with a period of record extending back nearly 150 years. Here are the eight nations that set new September all-time heat records on September 1, 2015, according to Maximiliano Herrera:

Moldova: Tiraspol, 38.4°C (101.1°F)
Ukraine: Voznesens'k, 38.8°C (101.8°F)
Austria: Pottschach, 36.0°C (96.8°F)
Czech Republic: Javornik, 37.4°C (99.3°F)
Slovakia: Michalovce, 36.4°C (97.5°F)
Poland:  Tarnow, 36.8°C (98.2°F)
Belarus: Zitkovici, 35.6°C (96.1°F)
Lithuania: Druskininkai, 35.1°C (95.2°F)

All-time September heat records were smashed at individual stations in many other countries, including Russia, Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia, Italy, San Marino, Hungary, and Germany, with 48 stations in Germany alone setting new all-time September heat records (thanks go to Dr. Michael Theusner for this stat.) Some stations with more than a century of data even managed to beat their ABSOLUTE records for any month.


Figure 4. Severe drought had much of Europe in its grip by mid-August, 2015. Image credit: European Drought Observatory.

September 2 and beyond: more record heat
The incredible heat continued on September 2, shifting eastwards some, with a 38.6°C (101.5°F) at Falesti, Moldava beating that nation's all-time September heat record set just the previous day. Ukraine tied its national record, just set the previous day. The extreme heat backed off considerably on September 3 and 4, but will build back in again over Southeast Europe over the weekend, with more all-time September heat records likely to fall.

European drought cost this summer: $2.7 billion
It's been a incredible summer for extreme heat in Europe, with Germany setting its all-time heat record (twice), and with hundreds of stations having long periods of record setting all-time heat records. The heat has been responsible for hundreds of heat deaths in Europe, and according to the August 2015 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, drought in Romania, Poland, and the Czech Republic this summer has cost at least $2.7 billion--just below the $3 billion price tag of the California drought.

We’ll be back with an update on the tropics on Saturday. Have a great Labor Day weekend!

I'll be on the Weather Underground TV show (#WUTV on Twitter) tonight on The Weather Channel. The show airs between 6:00 and 8:00 pm EDT. If you don’t have access to TWC on cable, you can still access selected clips from each episode, live streaming of online-only content, and a WUTV chatroom, all on the Weather Underground WUTV website.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane heat Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I SEE TWO SPIN HERE!
good blog Dr. Masters'
good read as always

thanks

Not far off Africa and already setting up shop.
Full screen loop: Link
Thank You Dr. and Have a Great long weekend as well; on the heat issue, we have seen heat records in recent years being broken in many parts of the world (Brazil also comes to mind) and lots of prolonged heat waves in Europe over the past few years as well. Probably more to come in the future at this rate.......................Agricultural research-degrees is a great field for young people to get into as the world faces these challenges and ag folks continue to research into productive heat/drought resistant crop strains to continue to feed the world in a warming climate.

On the Atlantic side of the ball, 91L is one to watch downstream; conditions look pretty good in the Central Atlantic at this time for a possible hurricane going into the Caribbean based on current steering patterns:


%uFFFD
My friends in Europe are probably miserable. They have been complaining all summer about the heat. They don't have AC in their homes. Well my one friends did get a small portable AC, but it only cools a tiny area in one room.
From the previous blog.....

Quoting 391. Patrap:




A keen eye you have there Patrap.....something afoot in the GOM for next week possibly?
And look at how much SAL has retreated in the Central Atlantic the past week:

Quoting 7. Sfloridacat5:

My friends in Europe are probably miserable. They have been complaining all summer about the heat. They don't have AC in their homes. Well my one friends did get a small portable AC, but it only cools a tiny area in one room.

Yes it is likely,,,been a hot one whew. Suggest a larger window AC maybe - some cool whole houses, tint the windows/install blinds? Spray foam the attic (which helps in winter and summer), check door and window gaskets. Little things can help bigtime. A Ceiling fan to move air allows you to use far less AC and will pay for itself over time. Etc etc. Stay cool!! : )
And the Hubbard glacier in Alaska continues to grow:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id =85900
It's 93.6 degrees with 62% humidity at the house.
Even worse- wind speed 0 mph, gusts 0 mph
That's around 110 degree heat index with no wind.
I'm just s.e. of Fort Myers
Quoting 10. Starhopper:


Yes it is likely,,,been a hot one whew. Suggest a larger window AC maybe - some cool whole houses, tint the windows/install blinds? Spray foam the attic (which helps in winter and summer), check door and window gaskets. Little things can help bigtime. A Ceiling fan to move air allows you to use far less AC and will pay for itself over time. Etc etc. Stay cool!! : )


I try to tell them to get an AC unit. For some reason (because they rarely need an AC) they just suffer.
My one friend doesn't even have a fan? I keep telling her to at least get a nice fan. That will help some.

My friends are in Romania and Poland.

Blob x3?

@Naples:

88.2 °F
Feels Like 106 °F
Pressure 29.99 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Clear
Heat Index 106 °F
Dew Point 81 °F

Humidity 79%
Quoting 13. Sfloridacat5:



I try to tell them to get an AC unit. For some reason (because they rarely need an AC) they just suffer.
My one friend doesn't even have a fan? I keep telling her to at least get a nice fan. That will help some.

Yeah I got that from my pal up north too, I'm like 100-200$? Break down. ; ) It's like a local no no or something? I'm not sure. Also that ceiling fan can be ran reverse in winter to bring heat that rises..down.


MAYBE UP TO 70% AT 2PM in five days from now



something at 30 west to watch!!
Quoting 7. Sfloridacat5:

My friends in Europe are probably miserable. They have been complaining all summer about the heat. They don't have AC in their homes. Well my one friends did get a small portable AC, but it only cools a tiny area in one room.


I know people in the UK are but for the opposite reasons (they wish they were getting hot weather). August was cooler (0.2C below avergae) and wetter than average in the UK - the European heatwave made its appearance here for a little bit in late June/early July and then again for 1 day (literally) in August when it reached ~30C in the southeast. There was a lot of rain in the South of the UK in August (some places recieving up to 3 times the August average!). I am thankful the heatwave didn't make a prolonged appearance here though, don't think I would've been able to cope!



Quoting 17. hurricanes2018:




something at 30 west to watch!!
To close to 91L, probably and interaction between these two,... or provide the humidity needed for future Grace...
Thanks dok!
Naples marina. Looks like a beautiful day but don't let that fool you. You don't see any people because it's just too hot to be outside.
Quoting 5. Starhopper:


Not far off Africa and already setting up shop.
Full screen loop: Link


That looks good.
Interesting pattern!



Less than 8 inches of rain since Jan 1st.

What else? Lol
Will it survive this time??

The tropical Atlantic is relatively moist, has the highest sea surface temperatures of the year, and is expected to have low to moderate wind shear, conditions which favor development. The wave should take about 6 - 8 days to make it to the Lesser Antilles Islands.
The most obvious difference at this point between 91L and Erika is that E was a "solo" player with very little moisture support from the ITCZ that had to keep firing convection (the little ball that could) to fight off dry air issues. 91L has that classic CV look, supported by a very moist ITCZ out ahead and behind the invest; this one should be able to lift up from the ITCZ and bring along plenty of moisture along with it.................Shear may be the only limiting factor on this one between the Central Atlantic and the Lesser Antilles.
Quoting 24. CaribBoy:



Less than 8 inches of rain since Jan 1st.

What else? Lol


Wow, that's about 2-3 weeks worth of precipitation here.
28. JRRP
Quoting 8. KuCommando:

From the previous blog.....



A keen eye you have there Patrap.....something afoot in the GOM for next week possibly?


I noticed what appeared to be a bit of a counter clock-wise spin in the gulf this morning as well. Season hits prime time next week, and it's my birthday on the 9th, so it is always an exciting week, personally and weather-wise!
What is with the blob off the Florida coast? Any thoughts there?
Man! Getting pounded right now with some Lightning storms here in Melbourne!
Quoting 30. 900MB:

What is with the blob off the Florida coast? Any thoughts there?


Which coast (Gulf Coast or East Coast)?
Looking at both "blobs" they have a lot of outflow boundaries from collapsing thunderstorms. Not what you really want to see with a developing system.
But any "blob" in the GOM or Gulf Stream needs to be watched this time of year.
Quoting 32. Sfloridacat5:



Which coast (Gulf Coast or East Coast)?
Looking at both "blobs" they have a lot of outflow boundaries from collapsing thunderstorms. Not what you really want to see with a developing system.
But any "blob" in the GOM or Gulf Stream needs to be watched this time of year.


East Coast (I think the remnant of Erika).
Quoting 31. hurricanewatcher61:

Man! Getting pounded right now with some Lightning storms here in Melbourne!


Interesting rain pattern today across Florida. Thunderstorms moving from north to south (not our normal summer setup).
Quoting 30. 900MB:

What is with the blob off the Florida coast? Any thoughts there?
Here is the NHC take:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO 25N70W. A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER
TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE SE COAST SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH AT
04/0900 UTC FROM 32N76W TO 28N80W AND GENERATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
75W-80W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
26N BETWEEN 47W-70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 57W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 31N49W ALONG 27N52W TO 24N57W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
FROM 28N49W TO 31N45W. A 1017 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N58W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N24W. THE W ATLC SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW TODAY NEAR 30N77W. THE W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND E TO W ALONG 23N E OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS ON SUN WITH THE LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS.


It's getting sheared per the CIMMS shear chart but do not know what the shear levels are to the South closer to Florida and the Bahamas (chart is blank there); a little odd as this is the first time I have seen this chart without values for this region. Don't know if that is a function of a bad satellite pass for these areas or not.

Quoting 34. 900MB:



East Coast (I think the remnant of Erika).


Yeah, that's Ex- Erika. Lots of thunderstorm blow ups with the system, but also a lot of outflow boundaries. I don't see the system doing much at this moment.
No one does a meteorology and climatology breakdown like you Dr. Masters and now Bob as well.

Very interesting the recovery of the ship wreckage in the dry lakebed!

Thanks for the update! Happy labor day weekend and Cheers!!
If the SE FL-Bahamas area is covered by the circle coming up from Cuba, sheer in those parts is around 10 knots but I can't tell exactly what it would be for the Eastern Gulf.
Quoting 34. 900MB:



East Coast (I think the remnant of Erika).


Cumulative 0-48h Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability
41. JRRP

next year... la niña
Quoting 9. weathermanwannabe:

And look at how much SAL has retreated in the Central Atlantic the past week:




It really is amazing how much the SAL has gone down the the last month considering how much there was. Are there SAL anamoly records? In simple terms I'm guessing we were above about a month ago and now about average for this time of year? Anyone know?
Quoting 36. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the NHC take:

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA TO 25N70W. A SHORTWAVE MID/UPPER
TROUGH IS JUST OFF THE SE COAST SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH AT
04/0900 UTC FROM 32N76W TO 28N80W AND GENERATING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN
75W-80W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
26N BETWEEN 47W-70W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N BETWEEN 57W-75W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM A WEAK 1014 MB LOW NEAR 31N49W ALONG 27N52W TO 24N57W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE
FROM 28N49W TO 31N45W. A 1017 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER THE
W/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 26N58W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 30N24W. THE W ATLC SURFACE
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP A WEAK LOW TODAY NEAR 30N77W. THE W ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND E TO W ALONG 23N E OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS ON SUN WITH THE LOW MEANDERING OVER THE SUBTROPICAL
WATERS N OF THE BAHAMAS.


It's getting sheared per the CIMMS shear chart but do not know what the shear levels are to the South closer to Florida and the Bahamas (chart is blank there); a little odd as this is the first time I have seen this chart without values for this region. Don't know if that is a function of a bad satellite pass for these areas or not.




0 shear?
Have to keep an eye on that outflow boundary just off the east coast of Florida moving S.W. It could come ashore later today over South Florida.
Quite interesting, getting some good down pours at the same time, not letting up as well!
Quoting 35. Sfloridacat5:



Interesting rain pattern today across Florida. Thunderstorms moving from north to south (not our normal summer setup).
Quoting 29. KDDFlorida:



I noticed what appeared to be a bit of a counter clock-wise spin in the gulf this morning as well. Season hits prime time next week, and it's my birthday on the 9th, so it is always an exciting week, personally and weather-wise!
There's a broad mid-upper level trough that extends all the way from well east of Florida out into the Gulf toward the Tex-Mex border. Within that trough, there's enough precipitable water and instability to kick off scattered showers and thunderstorms. As these get going, there will be some weak diurnal lows started, accounting for any spin you see. These will dissipate with the loss of daytime heating and the attendant convection. This process will repeat itself every day through at least Sunday. There's no mechanism I can see that will cause a more vigorous circulation in the Atlantic or the Gulf. There is a front that will make its way south about Thursday that may have enough energy to cause some issues in the Gulf if it's really strong enough to make its way that far south.

The rainbow loop is really misleading compared what's actually happening. It shows a lot of clouds, but there's not much precipitation associated with the clouds. Most of this is close enough to shore to show up well on radar. If you look at the offshore radar compared to the rainbow, you'll see that the radar gives a better picture of what's happening. This is one example for the Gulf. You can see the very broad rotation within the trough, as the eastern end sags south over central Florida and the western end moves north from Louisiana west. Given this broad rotation, it wouldn't be surprising to see a few weak lows embedded in the larger trough.



EDIT: A 1012 mb low has just shown up east of central Florida again, the same as yesterday but further south. This will also dissipate later this evening.

Look at the outflow boundary heading S.W. towards the coast, while the other precipitation across the state is moving to the S.E. Nice boundary collision setup for later across coastal areas of S. Florida.

Quoting 41. JRRP:


next year... la niña
hopefully
Quoting 31. hurricanewatcher61:

Man! Getting pounded right now with some Lightning storms here in Melbourne!

That was crazy. Someone called, firetrucks were working on a strike in their neighborhood. It had that cookie pan violent shaking sound like when Erika remains were here. Looking at the satellite, can see where it came from with remnants of Erika mingling in that trough over us today.

Quoting 43. 900MB:



0 shear?
Probably not zero, but at least greater than 5 knots and less than 10, so nothing shows up on the chart. It's part of what's creating the very weak steering currents in the western Atlantic, and it's what will keep the low drifting around north of the Bahamas for the the next couple of days.
Naples, FL > 26.084 -81.672 > 39 ft
99 °F
Feels Like 119.4 °F

Yeah its cooking, rain popping soon.
Looks more like a sea breeze front moving in. More storms will fire up when it hits the coast. More lightning storms training in here in Melbourne. Rain is relentless at the moment. Might have some flooding concerns in low lying areas.
Quoting 48. Sfloridacat5:

Look at the outflow boundary heading S.W. towards the coast, while the other precipitation across the state is moving to the S.E. Nice boundary collision setup for later across coastal areas of S. Florida.



SSMI/SSMIS/AMSR2-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic
56. SLU
Quoting 402. CaribBoy:



Less than 200 mm (8"). Record dry...


wow. That is crazy. The CFS calls for the drought to end in a couple months with 2016 being a blockbuster 2008/2010-type year in the Caribbean with rain from start to end.
57. SLU

Quoting 410. opal92nwf:


No season in recent times was as dull as 2013, and this year is already better than that- that's what I'm thankful for. I think 2013 was rock bottom, and especially starting next year, I believe we will see a turn back towards more robust Atlantic activity.


Yep. 2013 was the most unusual season I ever tracked since I started in 2000. The active season predictions of over 18 storms didn't help either.
Quoting 52. sar2401:

Probably not zero, but at least greater than 5 knots and less than 10, so nothing shows up on the chart. It's part of what's creating the very weak steering currents in the western Atlantic, and it's what will keep the low drifting around north of the Bahamas for the the next couple of days.


All things considered, I would give ex-Erika a shot here. The spin off Africa looks like our best shot at a true, long duration Cape Verde storm in a while.
Quoting 42. Trouper415:



It really is amazing how much the SAL has gone down the the last month considering how much there was. Are there SAL anamoly records? In simple terms I'm guessing we were above about a month ago and now about average for this time of year? Anyone know?
There hasn't been much work done to characterize if a year is average, above average, or lower than average in terms of SAL. There's an interesting paper that unfortunately only looks at one year (2011), but it does give a picture of the amount of SAL in each month of that year. I expect that's pretty typical of most years in terms of month variation of dust transport. It's also an interesting read to discover all the component part of SAL. It's a lot more than just dust from the Sahara. As you can see from the graphs, the big time for SAL is from December through March, but there is a secondary peak in October, which may explain part of the reason why hurricanes become less likely as we get later in that month.

60. SLU
Quoting 41. JRRP:


next year... la niña


Very active 2016 could lie ahead if the CFS is even 1/2 right. Could rival 2010 and the same list of names will be used too .....
Yes I notice that, storms mellowing out a little now. Still some rumbles going on. Looks like a rainy weekend into next week here on the coast.
Quoting 51. Skyepony:


That was crazy. Someone called, firetrucks were working on a strike in their neighborhood. It had that cookie pan violent shaking sound like when Erika remains were here. Looking at the satellite, can see where it came from with remnants of Erika mingling in that trough over us today.


Quoting 58. 900MB:



All things considered, I would give ex-Erika a shot here. The spin off Africa looks like our best shot at a true, long duration Cape Verde storm in a while.
You never know with a low wandering around near the Bahamas, but I sure don't see anything that's going to give a push to ex-Erika. The two characteristics of Erika have been underperformance and poor modeling. That's still true today. Ex-Erika has had several much better chances than it has now and, for reasons I don't understand, has been unable to take advantage of them.
Quoting 53. Starhopper:

Naples, FL > 26.084 -81.672 > 39 ft
99 °F
Feels Like 119.4 °F

Yeah its cooking, rain popping soon.



Not sure where you're getting your data but according to NOAA it's 90 with a heat index of 100 in Naples.
Quoting 41. JRRP:


next year... la niña
And a very crazy +AMO
Quoting 53. Starhopper:

Naples, FL > 26.084 -81.672 > 39 ft
99 °F
Feels Like 119.4 °F

Yeah its cooking, rain popping soon.

It's 95 with a dewpoint of 76 up here in SE Alabama. We have almost perfect ingredients for thunderstorms but, as of yet, there's hardly a cloud in the sky. If only we had an ocean or two...
Quoting 62. sar2401:

You never know with a low wandering around near the Bahamas, but I sure don't see anything that's going to give a push to ex-Erika. The two characteristics of Erika have been underperformance and poor modeling. That's still true today. Ex-Erika has had several much better chances than it has now and, for reasons I don't understand, has been unable to take advantage of them.


Good points. Meandering lows near the Bahamas always have a chance with little shear. Time will tell...
Quoting 63. 69Viking:



Not sure where you're getting your data but according to NOAA it's 90 with a heat index of 100 in Naples.
I'd guess from a PWS with siting problems. Mine reads 102, but the fan can't move enough air over senor when it's above 92, so it will consistently read seven degrees high without a correction factor. Luckily, the software makes this fairly easy.
Recently moved to the PNW from SWFL. Currently 55° here. Seeing all the heat back south and east- I feel for ya lol
Quoting 67. 900MB:



Good points. Meandering lows near the Bahamas always have a chance with little shear. Time will tell...


Seen a lot of depressions spin up in that area...some lived, some didnt
Quoting 70. K8eCane:



Seen a lot of depressions spin up in that area...some lived, some didnt
Yeah, it's a climatologically favored area for TC formation, especially this time of the year. I suspect the NHC has maintained a floater over the area so they can keep a better eye on it, even though there's not enough there presently for an invest.
The low associated with the TW ahead of 91L is trying to do its thing too.


91L bumped up to 50/70%

TD coming soon
Quoting 73. wunderkidcayman:

91L bumped up to 50/70%

TD coming soon
]

Rinse, wash, repeat
Happy Friday all. Nice envelope of water vapor around the invest.

dang

what will this one be called?
Quoting 74. Drakoen:

]

Rinse, wash, repeat


I don't see any reason why that if it were to develop it will see the same demise as it's predecessors. There's still dry stable air out there and the wind shear across the Caribbean is still blowing at 20-40 kts.
Quoting 78. Chicklit:

dang

what will this one be called?
It would be called Grace
Quoting 79. Bucsboltsfan:



I don't see any reason why that if it were to develop it will see the same demise as it's predecessors. There's still dry stable air out there and the wind shear across the Caribbean is still blowing at 20-40 kts.


will or won't?
Quoting 42. Trouper415:



It really is amazing how much the SAL has gone down the the last month considering how much there was. Are there SAL anamoly records? In simple terms I'm guessing we were above about a month ago and now about average for this time of year? Anyone know?
If Doctor Sal dont kill 91l Nurse Shear will surely do it in.
Quoting 82. Drakoen:



will or won't?


Won't
Quoting 79. Bucsboltsfan:



I don't see any reason why that if it were to develop it will see the same demise as it's predecessors. There's still dry stable air out there and the wind shear across the Caribbean is still blowing at 20-40 kts.


Because it is more likely to head north of the Carib.
As usual, remember that the early model runs mean very little this far out; they will all re-initialize over the next week at each phase of the storm according to intensity on approach towards the general vicinity of the Antilles. First adjustment at TD intialization, next ones at TS, and then according to strength and the ridging patterns/trof movement as the storm gets to the Antilles (if it stays on the weaker side of the spectrum and does not pull a real good intensification in the Central Atlantic with a tendency to move NW sooner than later).

As it currently stands, it is way too early to know if 91 will pose any threat to the US downstream (as the models will flip flop) but the Antilles would be the first stop on the way and they should watch this one carefully; the most impressive wave we have seen convection and early structure-wise this season.
Thanks for the very good new blog entry, doc, especially as it has a look at our incredible summer in Europe! Although it's still ongoing in the south and east of the continent - I've read in Italian media today that they are expecting up to 40C = 104F in their south - the last heatwave retreated from my area near Frankfurt dead on time on September 1. Now it's cool, and I already have to wear a jumper, sitting in my room, and will "mothball" the fans in the attic tomorrow.

A week after heatwave, snow falls in Bavaria
The Local (Germany), Published: 04 Sep 2015 15:33 GMT 02:00
From 30C (86F) to snow in under a week? It's possible in Germany where seven centimetres of the white stuff fell at the top of the Bavarian Alps on Friday. ..


Development of temperatures in Europe in the next two weeks. For the first time in many months the "blue anomaly" (last map) is dominating in most parts of the continent.

The drought isn't over in many areas, though. After an already dry spring, hydrological balance for June to August shows a mind boggeling deficit in many parts of Germany with some extreme spots (below in red) in the central-southwest where I live. Maybe we'll get some single drops from the remants of the former cyclone which has flooded south Norway the last days - but afterwards temps will rise again, and it should stay dry, umm.


Source.

Side note: Media currently don't pay much attention to our weather - they are flooded by dire news of the huuuge refugee crisis in Europe. But when weather will worsen as the years go by, those news of scores of poor and unprotected people roaming the countries and the Mediterranean Sea could even worsen as well, I fear.
Quoting 24. CaribBoy:


Less than 8 inches of rain since Jan 1st.

What else? Lol

Wow, you (St. Barths) even beat my town Mainz which got 241mm (9,5 inches) since January 1 (January has been still a quite wet month though).
91L described as being well south of the CV islands. Could this be a low riding Caribbean cruiser?
90. SLU
CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1839 UTC FRI SEP 4 2015

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL912015) 20150904 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
150904 1800 150905 0600 150905 1800 150906 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.1N 21.3W 11.5N 24.0W 12.0N 27.0W 12.5N 30.2W
BAMD 11.1N 21.3W 11.5N 23.8W 12.1N 26.1W 12.8N 28.3W
BAMM 11.1N 21.3W 11.4N 24.3W 11.8N 27.1W 12.2N 29.6W
LBAR 11.1N 21.3W 11.6N 24.0W 12.5N 26.8W 13.5N 29.6W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 36KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
150906 1800 150907 1800 150908 1800 150909 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.8N 33.7W 12.5N 40.6W 11.7N 46.9W 11.0N 52.7W
BAMD 13.6N 30.4W 15.5N 34.0W 17.5N 36.6W 19.2N 38.1W
BAMM 12.6N 32.2W 13.4N 37.2W 14.3N 41.4W 15.2N 44.8W
LBAR 14.6N 32.3W 17.3N 37.3W 20.5N 40.7W 25.1N 41.5W
SHIP 51KTS 62KTS 63KTS 61KTS
DSHP 51KTS 62KTS 63KTS 61KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.1N LONCUR = 21.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 10.9N LONM12 = 18.1W DIRM12 = 277DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 10.6N LONM24 = 15.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting 23. 69Viking:

Interesting pattern!



Yeah the "H" over North Texas is killing us right now, most of our lakes at at 97-99% full now. They are drying up too fast right now...Hopefully that hard winter will come to us in November. (RAIN RAIN RAIN)
Deja vu

Quoting 63. 69Viking:



Not sure where you're getting your data but according to NOAA it's 90 with a heat index of 100 in Naples.


Here in Naples, we have twenty something zip codes - its cooler towards the coast vs roasting 8-9 miles inland.

Depends on where you are..
I'm actually very surprised that 2015 has managed to produce this many MDR storms.More than 2013 and 2014 combined.
Quoting 86. weathermanwannabe:

As usual, remember that the early model runs mean very little this far out; they will all re-initialize over the next week at each phase of the storm according to intensity on approach towards the general vicinity of the Antilles. First adjustment at TD intialization, next ones at TS, and then according to strength and the ridging patterns/trof movement as the storm gets to the Antilles (if it stays on the weaker side of the spectrum and does not pull a real good intensification in the Central Atlantic with a tendency to move NW sooner than later).

As it currently stands, it is way too early to know if 91 will pose any threat to the US downstream (as the models will flip flop) but the Antilles would be the first stop on the way and they should watch this one carefully; the most impressive wave we have seen convection and early structure-wise this season.


Also, keep in mind that most Cape Verde storms do not end up affecting the United States. They tend to curve before reaching our shores, that is just the way it is. A few make it all the way across if conditions are just right for the duration of the storm's existence. Also, the later in the Cape Verde season it gets, the less likely it is that a trough won't recurve a storm well east of us. So, now that we are into September, odds are going down every day.

One notable Cape Verde storm that made it all the way across at least as late in September was Hurricane Donna. It will happen again at some point.
Quoting 13. Sfloridacat5:



I try to tell them to get an AC unit. For some reason (because they rarely need an AC) they just suffer.
My one friend doesn't even have a fan? I keep telling her to at least get a nice fan. That will help some.
My friends are in Romania and Poland.

Air conditioning hasn't been part of our culture and building codes, and in the past you didn't need it most of the time. We are accustomed to adjust to the weather outside by wearing the appropriate clothes, lol. To tell the truth, there is some jaw dropping and head shaking when we read reports from the US where you allegedly need to wear a jumper in your office even when its baking hot outside :-) And Europeans fear to catch a cold in the very moment they would mount an air conditioned public bus in the US with arctic temps inside during summer, lol. - But this crazy summer in central and southeastern Europe indeed more folks wanted to buy a mobile air conditioner - but the devices were sold out in whole countries (with supplies from the Far East only available after a delay of many weeks or even months). Even fans were sold out - but on the other side I still know a lot of people who reject fans in their rooms because they fear the draft. After all, the old solution of just sweating (and complaining) is still the most environment friendly as well :-)
After 3 completely dry days here (not for the area as a whole, but my location), our robust rainy season pattern is back today. It looks like we will get a good storm today, as storms are continuing to fill in to the north and west toward the northern parts of the Orlando area. I'm hoping for 1"+.
Quoting 94. washingtonian115:

I'm actually very surprised that 2015 has managed to produce this many MDR storms.More than 2013 and 2014 combined.

a few are considering the seasonal forecasts made
still some active time yet to go
after the 20th of the month
cv season spins down
We've been over this with Erika and Danny.....I say some modest development before King TUTT beheads it.What a season it would have been if it wasn't for the shear destroying these storms.
Quoting 96. barbamz:


Air conditioning hasn't been part of our culture and building codes, and in the past you didn't need it most of the time. We are accustomed to adjust to the weather outside by wearing the appropriate clothes, lol. To tell the truth, there is some jaw dropping and head shaking when we read reports from the US where you allegedly need to wear a jumper in your office even when its baking hot outside :-) And Europeans fear to catch a cold in the very moment they would mount an air conditioned public bus in the US with arctic temps inside during summer, lol. - But this crazy summer in central and southeastern Europe indeed more folks wanted to buy a mobile air conditioner - but the devices were sold out in whole countries (with supplies from the Far East only available after a delay of many weeks or even months). Even fans were sold out - but on the other side I still know a lot of people who reject fans in their rooms because they fear the draft. After all, the old solution of just sweating (and complaining) is still the most environment friendly as well :-)


Can't do without AC in FL from May-September. Life would be (and was) miserable without it. There is something kind of luxurious feeling about being inside in nice 70F dry air, when it is 95F outside.
Quoting 92. Drakoen:

Deja vu

I think I had that for dinner last night - made me sick.
This is ONLY the 12 hour Interpolation model.



Quoting 96. barbamz:


Air conditioning hasn't been part of our culture and building codes, and in the past you didn't need it most of the time. We are accustomed to adjust to the weather outside by wearing the appropriate clothes, lol. To tell the truth, there is some jaw dropping and head shaking when we read reports from the US where you allegedly need to wear a jumper in your office even when its baking hot outside :-) And Europeans fear to catch a cold in the very moment they would mount an air conditioned public bus in the US with arctic temps inside during summer, lol. - But this crazy summer in central and southeastern Europe indeed more folks wanted to buy a mobile air conditioner - but the devices were sold out in whole countries (with supplies from the Far East only available after a delay of many weeks or even months). Even fans were sold out - but on the other side I still know a lot of people who reject fans in their rooms because they fear the draft. After all, the old solution of just sweating (and complaining) is still the most environment friendly as well :-)
Ah, yes. The "draft" problem. That was probably the biggest culture shock for me travelling in Europe. It wasn't just that it was hot. I can handle hot. It was this overwhelming need to seal out any kind of draft lest some dreaded form of pneumonia attack. Traveling on a bus or train without A/C and everyone having a fit if I merely cracked a window about drove me up a wall. Even though I saw his draft thing in Germany and Austria, it's much worse the further east you travel. I was in Austria during a spell of temperatures near 100, on a train headed for Budapest. The coach actually had A/C, the first I had seen. It was quite comfortable when I got on in Vienna. The other passengers complained constantly to the conductor about the cold and "draft" as we went on our way. By the time we got to Budapest, the car basically had the A/C turned off. Everyone was sweating like a pig, including me, but at least they were safe from the "draft". :-)
The GFS ensemble models

Quoting 102. Grothar:

This is ONLY the 12 hour Interpolation model.






Love that one lil blue model that just rams 91L SSE toward the equator
Quoting 89. unknowncomic:

91L described as being well south of the CV islands. Could this be a low riding Caribbean cruiser?


If it takes that route, it's curtains again. Any CV system that wants to survive (one that makes the entire trek across), better find its way N of the CB.
Quoting 108. JrWeathermanFL:



Love that one lil blue model that just rams 91L SSE toward the equator
An Erika, Danny tracker, the same story all over again, how strong it's going to be when arrival, to early to tell....
111. JLPR2
New convection popping on 91L's NW side, there's some wrapping in from the SE and all of this happening during D-min.
Not bad 91L...

Quoting 110. HuracanTaino:

An Erika, Danny tracker, the same story all over again, how strong it's going to be when arriving to the eastern Caribbean, to early to tell....
Quoting 102. Grothar:

This is ONLY the 12 hour Interpolation model.






But what would it be if it was more than that? Hello, Grother. Hello, everyone.
Southern Ontario
issued by Environment Canada
Friday 4 September 2015.
------------------------------------------------- --------------------
Heat warning for:
=new= City of Toronto
=new= Niagara
=new= City of Hamilton
=new= Burlington - Oakville
=new= Halton hills - Milton
=new= mississauga - Brampton.

------------------------------------------------- --------------------
==Discussion==

Several days of maximum temperatures of 30 degrees celsius is
expected to occur starting Saturday and run through Monday over the
labour day long weekend. There will be little relief at night with
temperatures falling into the low twenties. This prolonged heat
event may produce much discomfort for those who may not have access
to a cool or air-conditioned place.

While extreme heat can put everyone at risk from heat illnesses,
health risks are greatest for
- older adults
- infants and Young children
- people with chronic illnesses such as breathing difficulties,
heart conditions or psychiatric illnesses
- people who work in the heat
- people who exercise in the heat
- people without access to air conditioning and
- homeless people.

Watch for symptoms of heat illness, which include
- dizziness or fainting, nausea or vomiting
- headache
- rapid breathing and heartbeat
- extreme thirst and
- decreased urination with unusually dark yellow urine.
If you experience any of these symptoms during extreme heat,
immediately move to a cool place and drink liquids. Water is best.

Drink plenty of liquids especially water before you feel thirsty to
decrease your risk of dehydration. Thirst is not a good indicator of
dehydration.

Take a break from the heat by spending a few hours in a cool place.
It could be a tree-shaded area, swimming facility or an
air-conditioned spot such as a public building, shopping mall,
grocery store, place of worship or public Library.

Heat warnings are issued when very high temperature or humidity
conditions are expected to pose an elevated risk of heat illnesses,
such as heat stroke or heat exhaustion.

Environment Canada meteorologists will update alerts as required.
Please monitor local media or weatheradio. To report severe weather,
send an email to storm.Ontario(at)ec.Gc.CA or tweet reports to
(hash)onstorm.

Http://weather.Gc.CA/warnings/index(underscore)e. Html?Prov=son

End/MSC

Quoting 102. Grothar:
This is ONLY the 12 hour Interpolation model.




Looks like 91L wants to cruise the Carib. It may meet its maker there.
Key radar fails on $1 billion NASA environmental satellite
Source: Reuters - Thu, 3 Sep 2015 20:48 GMT
By Irene Klotz
CAPE CANAVERAL, Fla., Sept 3 (Reuters) - A key instrument on a $1 billion NASA satellite has failed, reducing scientists' ability to capture data to measure the moisture in Earth's soil in order to improve flood forecasting and monitor climate change, officials said on Thursday.
A second instrument remains operational aboard the 2,100-pound (950-kg) Soil Moisture Active Passive satellite, though its level of detail is far more limited.
The satellite's high-powered radar system, capable of collecting data in swaths of land as small as about 2 miles (3 km) across, failed in July after less than three months in operation, NASA said. The cause of the failure is under investigation.
Launched in January, SMAP was designed to spend at least three years in orbit, taking measurements on the amount of water in the upper two inches (5 cm) of the Earth's soil.
Scientists had hoped to combine SMAP's high-resolution measurements with data from the lower-resolution instrument to get a better understanding of how much water, ice and slush is in the planet's top soil. ...

Whole article see link above.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fred, located a little more than a thousand miles
southwest of the Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms, is moving well south of the Cape Verde Islands. This
system has the potential to become a tropical depression as it moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

invest 91L

Short AFP video from today about those excarvations in the dry river bed of Vistula River in Poland, mentioned in the blog entry.



Vistula River. Source wikipedia.

Vistula flyover in August (youtube) with a lot of sand bars due to the drought.

With this good night folks from Europe!
Quoting 94. washingtonian115:

I'm actually very surprised that 2015 has managed to produce this many MDR storms.More than 2013 and 2014 combined.
I agree. 2015 have been a producer of Cape Verde storms in an El Niño year.That is something incredible as el Niño usually shut down the season. If Grace forms that means 4/7 were cape verdes.
Large area of low shear in Florida area.
Quoting 115. rmbjoe1954:


Looks like 91L wants to cruise the Carib. It may meet its maker there.
Joining the Danny Erika show.
HUGE storm here in Lauderdale-By-the-Sea TONS of lightning
The models looks like so far it keeps it out of the Caribbean.
Quoting 125. ElConando:

The models looks like so far it keeps it out of the Caribbean.
The models do poorly at this stage. Maybe in three or four days.
It looks like we get a nice cool break, with more heat next week, and then another cool blast by next weekend. Summer sure is winding down, as the season transitions to Fall.
I guess StormTrackerScott has left the building, haven't seen him in here lately.
Quoting 124. Camerooski:

HUGE storm here in Lauderdale-By-the-Sea TONS of lightning


It stretches from Boca Raton to I-595 in Broward, and from University Drive out west to a couple of miles offshore. Out here on Hiatus road, it's bone dry by thundery. We're not even gonna get wet :/
Quoting 80. Camerooski:

It would be called Grace
March of the Deaths.
Quoting 129. hurricanewatcher61:

I guess StormTrackerScott has left the building, haven't seen him in here lately.
Wait until Grace forms.Sure he will say this is another cat 5 to Florida.
(Edit: Nearly) Very last post for today:


Flashflooding in Menorca/Baleares on September 3.

More news about current severe weather in the Eastern Mediterranean and elsewhere in Europe see Meteo Europe. BTW, the MCS over Sardinia today (I showed the sat pic of the storms this morning) caused quite a lot of damage due to a tornado, very large hail and so on. Some flooding in main land Italy as well with more to come tomorrow.
Quoting 132. prcane4you:

Wait until Grace forms.Sure he will say this is another cat 5 to Florida.



Only when it gets within 1000 miles of Florida, then he'll come back on and shout statistics at us.
Looks like we'll have the G storm in the next 12 to 18 hours!
I can remember one certain CV hurricane back in 1967. Took out lower Rio Grande Valley in south Texas. We rode that one out and it was tough! Wind gauge blow off the NWS building at 134 mph. They are studying Hurricane Beulah and have determined it was a Cat4 on landfall. Arrived on September 21, 1967.
I'm currently under a significant weather advisory, this'll be fun...
Quoting 135. ElConando:

Looks like we'll have the G storm in the next 12 to 18 hours!
tw closed to G storm,nice spin.So you never know maybe we have the H storm too.
Bye bye, booze ...

Everyone have a weather and otherwise safe long weekend and see yall in the near future..........WW.
Quoting 124. Camerooski:

HUGE storm here in Lauderdale-By-the-Sea TONS of lightning


It's a good one, isn't it Cam. I haven't seen one of these in a long time. Our cat jumped 5 feet in the air, until I realized we don't have a cat. Many streets are flooded around us.
Extremely robust waves coming off African continent a big reason IMO. Why they are so robust, I will let the experts chime in. Hopefully 91L a wave producer for us wave starved souls on the SE USA coastline. So far looking good. North of PR and we are in the window.

Boy had successful surgery at Duke Med Ctr and is coming home today...Woohoooooooooo! But doc says he will miss the last of the warm water as he will have to stay out 4-6 weeks. Booooooo!


Quoting 120. allancalderini:

I agree. 2015 have been a producer of Cape Verde storms in an El Niño year.That is something incredible as el Niño usually shut down the season. If Grace forms that means 4/7 were cape verdes.
Quoting 92. Drakoen:

Deja vu



Lol so true... If this wasn't a rare Super El Nino year we would have been in trouble this year IMHO. We been so lucky.
Blobus Imminentus right behind it.

The waves have been very robust this year compared to the last two years and that has helped storms in a way develop.If this continues into next year we will definitely have problems if the La nina forms.Unless a steering pattern sets up like it did in 2010...
91L 'definitely' coming to New England. I can dream, I can spin, and apparently fly if only I should be so lucky XD
Quoting 104. Grothar:

The GFS ensemble models




Danke, Herr Gro.
Quoting 141. Grothar:



It's a good one, isn't it Cam. I haven't seen one of these in a long time. Our cat jumped 5 feet in the air, until I realized we don't have a cat. Many streets are flooded around us.


Mild street flooding where I'm at too, but nothing I haven't seen before.
Kinda chilly in Sooo Cal today...after a low of 50 this am, current temp is:

Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Fri, 04 Sep 2:50 pm PDT
Most Recent Observation: Fri, 04 Sep 2:40 pm PDT
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PDT) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
04 Sep 2:40 pm PDT 79 33 19 SSW 6G14 OK

Life is good!
Quoting 144. Grothar:

Blobus Imminentus right behind it.


The Wave Train in full force!
Quoting 139. barbamz:

Bye bye, booze ...




Thought that was the water supply after fracking.......LOL
Quoting 88. barbamz:


Wow, you (St. Barths) even beat my town Mainz which got 241mm (9,5 inches) since January 1 (January has been still a quite wet month though).


9.5 inches? Are you guys in a serious drought? That sounds really low, the year to date at my parents house in the Tampa Bay area Florida is 64.27. They've had 33.38 in just the last 2 months and 48.82 since June 1st!!!

lol so maybe I'm just spoiled. Though I recently moved back to Tallahassee FL for school, and there has been a drought there, year to date is only 31 inches.
Quoting 141. Grothar:



It's a good one, isn't it Cam. I haven't seen one of these in a long time. Our cat jumped 5 feet in the air, until I realized we don't have a cat. Many streets are flooded around us.


Well thanks Grothar.... I've just burst out laughing in a silent office and scared another!
Quoting 148. rxse7en:



Danke, Herr Gro.


Bitte, sehr!
Quoting 154. Supposetobefishin:



Well thanks Grothar.... I've just burst out laughing in a silent office and scared another!


It serves them right for not being on a weather blog like you.
The wave just in front of 91L has a little spin to it too
Quoting 146. washingtonian115:

The waves have been very robust this year compared to the last two years and that has helped storms in a way develop.If this continues into next year we will definitely have problems if the La nina forms.Unless a steering pattern sets up like it did in 2010...


Not sure we don't have problems this year. Three more minimum coming off of Africa. Re-curve or Caribbean shear will hopefully kill them, but stay tuned. And the West to East flow in the Gulf is worrisome. El-Nino is fully kicked in now. Could see a break off hurricane in the Gulf or storms form off the Eastern seaboard from this flow. SST anomalies are a tell-tell sign of these possibilities. Think we could see five to seven September storms.
Energy forming between the two troughs off the Eastern seaboard could be our next yellow circle and invest.
Quoting 159. DeepSeaRising:



Not sure we don't have problems this year. Three more minimum coming off of Africa. Re-curve or Caribbean shear will hopefully kill them, but stay tuned. And the West to East flow in the Gulf is worrisome. El-Nino is fully kicked in now. Could see a break off hurricane in the Gulf or storms form off the Eastern seaboard from this flow. SST anomalies are a tell-tell sign of these possibilities. Think we could see five to seven September storms.


dont forget the late season storms forming in the Gulf of NW Caribbean. Can still happen
Quoting 143. Ricki13th:


Lol so true... If this wasn't a rare Super El Nino year we would have been in trouble this year IMHO. We been so lucky.


Agreed. Steering patterns would likely result in numerous US major hurricane landfalls were it any other year.
So......traffic here is rampant when a storm may hit Florida. Always knew that, but wow. Shows that Florida gets hit by the most hurricanes in America and many Floridians pay very close attention. Wilma, Andrew, and the George's of the world will do that.
So Erika reminded us what its like to try and figure out the storm, and to half-heartedly prepare. That was enough for this season. Tell what's his/her name not to mess around -- blow up, gasp and die before any one gets around to worrying about it. Thanks --Zoo
Labor Day weekend will do that to a blog. Hope all have a great one!
Quoting 161. Hurricanes101:



dont forget the late season storms forming in the Gulf of NW Caribbean. Can still happen


Think shear will rip through the Caribbean the rest of the season. Gulf is where things are starting to look like this season may produce possible trouble. El-Nino and it's affects on the Gulf and Atlantic are an unknown as AGW produces a changed jet stream and SST's we've not seen.
Quoting 166. DeepSeaRising:



Think shear will rip through the Caribbean the rest of the season. Gulf is where things are starting to look like this season may produce possible trouble. El-Nino and it's affects on the Gulf and Atlantic are an unknown as AGW produces a changed jet stream and SST's we've not seen.


even with El Nino, I think the NW Caribbean can still produce a storm
In a rather surprising development, it appears the low that was Erika is getting rapidly absorbed by the trough and moving east, away from the Bahamas and Florida. It's also weakening as it does so. The Erika floater has apparently been deactivated as well. We may finally be seeing the end of Erika unless it somehow forms up in the Atlantic and attacks Bermuda. :-)

Quoting 166. DeepSeaRising:



Think shear will rip through the Caribbean the rest of the season. Gulf is where things are starting to look like this season may produce possible trouble. El-Nino and it's affects on the Gulf and Atlantic are an unknown as AGW produces a changed jet stream and SST's we've not seen.
The only way we're going to see a TC in the Gulf is for a strong enough cold front to get into the western Gulf with enough energy to produce a tail gunner storm. Erika had multiple chances to intensify in the Gulf and the Atlantic and was not able to do so. As long as the Gulf remains under the influence of these large and sluggish troughs it's going to be pretty difficult to spin anything up,
Quoting 168. sar2401:

In a rather surprising development, it appears the low that was Erika is getting rapidly absorbed by the trough and moving east, away from the Bahamas and Florida. It's also weakening as it does so. The Erika floater has apparently been deactivated as well. We may finally be seeing the end of Erika unless it somehow forms up in the Atlantic and attacks Bermuda. :-)




Erika may be gone, but there's a lot of energy that the back trough which was Erika is feeding and spinning off of in between the two. Low may form there. Pretty obvious where this is happening, will it blob up through the night? I would like to preface, once again, I am an enthusiast. :) But I do Google to learn more.
Quoting 169. sar2401:

The only way we're going to see a TC in the Gulf is for a strong enough cold front to get into the western Gulf with enough energy to produce a tail gunner storm. Erika had multiple chances to intensify in the Gulf and the Atlantic and was not able to do so. As long as the Gulf remains under the influence of these large and sluggish troughs it's going to be pretty difficult to spin anything up,


Shear was the problem with Erika, had been all along from the Caribbean on. Ideal conditions and the seed of Erika would have bloomed in the NE Gulf. Troughs and storms in the NW Gulf to the Atlantic seaboard off of Florida; it's almost always the trough affect. El-Nino is going to surprise though. This West East flow is abnormal this year. Just a feeling. Leonard Nemoy would tell me I'm being illogical.
its a race too the next TD wish will be 1st

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kevin, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 575 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, have become
better defined since yesterday. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend while the low moves generally northwestward
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fred, located more than a thousand miles southwest of the
Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms, is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape
Verde Islands. This system continues to show signs of organization
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

Looking at the 7 day GFS for Europe it looks like nice cooling is in the cards. Here in the Northeast U.S. the 70's dew points of yesterday have given way to my first Fall smell this year today. Temps look to be back on the rise for the next five days reaching into the 90's.

Based on steering patterns, troughs, high pressure etc, can anyone explain to me where they think grace will track..
70 % and 80 % are the odds for 91 L at 8.00 PM, according to NHC.
Hopefully the likes of Danny and Erika didn't get us too complacent. Wave train still in full effect, one or two are bound to make it eventually. Grace, if it is to be, will have better conditions to work with initially than Erika did.





Quoting 174. java162:

Based on steering patterns, troughs, high pressure etc, can anyone explain to me where they think erika will track..



1st of all there is no erika and 2nd of all erika is long long gone
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fred, located more than a thousand miles southwest of the
Azores.

1. A tropical wave, accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms, is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape
Verde Islands. This system continues to show signs of organization
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

invest 91L
91L bumped up to 70/80% no surprise there

I suspect TD 7 soon and possibly TS Grace late weekend or early next week

Pretty impressive sitting at 6, most likely 7 storms at the beginning of September.
INVEST 91L will be a T.D SOON MAYBE BY SUNDAY NIGHT
Well on the way to TD. Circulation out front to contend with but most likely that will be absorbed as 91L organizes.

has long has we dont get any no show TD that some time fail to get named


i really wish when they do TDs they dont call them TD 7 they call it by TD Grace then that way if they fail too be come any stronger then it has all ready uesd that name on the list but i wounder if that would be call cheating


why is showing tropical storm!!
Quoting 182. ProgressivePulse:

Well on the way to TD. Circulation out front to contend with but most likely that will be absorbed as 91L organizes.


starting to look like a T.D TO ME
Quoting 181. hurricanes2018:

INVEST 91L will be a T.D SOON MAYBE BY SUNDAY NIGHT
Sooner, sometime tomorrow, will be a TD or perhaps directly Grace, if it has a good D-max, ...
Quoting 145. Grothar:




west by snwestry,to swest to the Caymans, easily..
Quoting 180. ProgressivePulse:

Pretty impressive sitting at 6, most likely 7 storms at the beginning of September.


But this season was going to be soooo boring lol
Quoting 186. hurricanes2018:



Fred the Dread!
How about that lightning/thunder today Gro? Rattled some cages for sure up here in N County, very impressive.
So... 91L is a fish?
Nice to see not any fish casters talking about 91 L.
Quoting 191. ProgressivePulse:

How about that lightning/thunder today Gro? Rattled some cages for sure up here in N County, very impressive.


One of the worst I've seen in a long time. We had some light show, and many roads were flooded.
Quoting 192. CaribBoy:

So... 91L is a fish?


Seriously? We are talking about that already?
196. MahFL
Quoting 10. Starhopper:


A Ceiling fan to move air allows you to use far less AC and will pay for itself over time. Etc etc. Stay cool!! : )


The point is they don't have AC in the first place.
Model runs are tightly clustered moving 91L north of the islands as of now. Still a long ways out.
198. MahFL
Quoting 19. HuracanTaino:

To close to 91L, probably and interaction between these two,... or provide the humidity needed for future Grace...


Fred is not too close to affect 91L.
Quoting 194. Grothar:



One of the worst I've seen in a long time. We had some light show, and many roads were flooded.


I am not one to stay inside during a storm but I postponed my travels to Publix today. Evil looking
200. MahFL
Quoting 13. Sfloridacat5:



My friends are in Romania and Poland.


They are very poor countries, most people won't be able to afford a/c, maybe a fan though, if the power stays on...
Not much convection but Ignacio has great structure and a vigorous LLC. How far will he go? Shear is low and waters, though cooling on its path, are still anomalously warm.
Quoting 198. MahFL:



Fred is not too close to affect 91L.


They were talking about the wave at 30W as being too close to 91L
Quoting 197. hurricanewatcher61:

Model runs are tightly clustered moving 91L north of the islands as of now. Still a long ways out.
That would take dying from land interaction out of the picture.
Quoting 192. CaribBoy:

So... 91L is a fish?
I THINK SO BUT STILL TO FAR OUT TO KNOW RIGHT NOW
Quoting 172. Tazmanian:

its a race too the next TD wish will be 1st

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kevin, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area
located about 575 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico, have become
better defined since yesterday. Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form over the weekend while the low moves generally northwestward
at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fred, located more than a thousand miles southwest of the
Azores.

A tropical wave, accompanied by a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms, is located a few hundred miles south of the Cape
Verde Islands. This system continues to show signs of organization
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple
of days while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent




Tracking a storm from the coast of Africa will drive you, and everyone else on the blog insane.
Quoting 206. ProgressivePulse:

Tracking a storm from the coast of Africa will drive you, and everyone else on the blog insane.


but if you can have a level head, it is really fun lol
208. MahFL
Quoting 62. sar2401:

You never know with a low wandering around near the Bahamas, but I sure don't see anything that's going to give a push to ex-Erika.


High pressure is supposed to move down the Atlantic coast and setup an onshore flow for all of the SE USA. Increased rip current danger for the Labor Day Holiday weekend too. A backdoor front is supposed to make it all the way to Orlando in FL this weekend.

209. MahFL
Quoting 143. Ricki13th:


Lol so true... If this wasn't a rare Super El Nino year we would have been in trouble this year IMHO. We been so lucky.


It's strong not super.
Quoting 197. hurricanewatcher61:

Model runs are tightly clustered moving 91L north of the islands as of now. Still a long ways out.
This storm actually went north of the islands as well. It formed 48 years ago to this date.



The 1947 Fort Lauderdale hurricane was an intense tropical cyclone that affected the Bahamas, southernmost Florida, and the Gulf Coast of the United States in September 1947. The fourth Atlantic tropical cyclone of the year, it formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean on September 4, becoming a hurricane, the third of the 1947 Atlantic hurricane season, less than a day later. After moving south by west for the next four days, it turned to the northwest and rapidly attained strength beginning on September 9. It reached a peak intensity of 145 mph (233 km/h) (Category 4) on September 15 while approaching the Bahamas. In spite of contemporaneous forecasts that predicted a strike farther north, the storm then turned to the west and poised to strike South Florida, crossing first the northern Bahamas at peak intensity. In the Bahamas, the storm produced a large storm surge and heavy damage, but with no reported fatalities.

Link
Quoting 207. Hurricanes101:



but if you can have a level head, it is really fun lol


I look at it too... But 5 days out is still in the middle of the central atlantic, talk about longer term direction is what I was referring to.
Quoting 209. MahFL:



It's strong not super.



chill we will call it has we like




hes is right its a super EL nino and vary close
Interesting to note however that in the 5 day range "Some" of the models are bending back west. I surely wouldn't say it will go north of the islands.

If one thing was learned from Erika is that the High Pressure is the dominant force in the Western Atlantic.
Invest 91L has continued to organize since this time yesterday, and it appears poised to become a tropical depression by the end of the day tomorrow. Low wind shear, an adequately moist atmosphere, abnormally warm ocean temperatures, and the passage of a convectively-coupled kelvin wave should promote intensification over the next 72 hours or so. Thereafter, increased wind shear and a drier environment should cause the storm to weaken. Not unlike what we've seen with Danny, Erika, and Fred.

Quoting 215. ProgressivePulse:

If one thing was learned from Erika is that the High Pressure is the dominant force in the Western Atlantic.

If
Quoting 214. ProgressivePulse:

Interesting to note however that in the 5 day range "Some" of the models are bending back west. I surely wouldn't say it will go north of the islands.


All I know is if it goes into the Caribbean like Erika it would be like going through a cheese-grater.
Quoting 157. stormpetrol:

The wave just in front of 91L has a little spin to it too
Hi Stormpetrol! There is an escaped king cobra in Orlando. We could use you here with the scissors and machete.
219. SLU
04/2345 UTC 11.2N 22.1W T1.5/1.5 91L
Quoting 218. Llamaluvr:

Hi Stormpetrol! There is an escaped king cobra in Orlando. We could use you here with the scissors and machete.


Look at the flareup in convection off Nicaragua/Honduras.
Keeping an eye on 91L for sure


WATCHING INVEST 91L at 8pm on september 4 2015 maYBE A T.D soon
Quoting 219. SLU:

04/2345 UTC 11.2N 22.1W T1.5/1.5 91L
TS?
Keeping an eye on 91L maybe a T.D SOON
Quoting 171. DeepSeaRising:



Shear was the problem with Erika, had been all along from the Caribbean on. Ideal conditions and the seed of Erika would have bloomed in the NE Gulf. Troughs and storms in the NW Gulf to the Atlantic seaboard off of Florida; it's almost always the trough affect. El-Nino is going to surprise though. This West East flow is abnormal this year. Just a feeling. Leonard Nemoy would tell me I'm being illogical.
Perhaps. The west to east flow is actually dominant in the Gulf most of the time. If we get a good front park itself in the Gulf, then we get a more north to south flow, so maybe that's what you're thinking of. Right now the whole Gulf is under the influence of broad but weak ridge. It's an ideal setup for a trough to undercut the ridge and then hang around for days with almost no steering flow to direct it. I think that was Erika's problem once it got in the Gulf. It got trapped in the Gulf and wasn't strong enough to develop on its own. The trough dragged it out of the Gulf and now it's dragging it out to sea. Just one more example of how the models have been more or less baffled with this storm. Not one that I recall from just two days ago forecast the remains of Erika to charge east as fast as it has.
Quoting 219. SLU:

04/2345 UTC 11.2N 22.1W T1.5/1.5 91L
Maybe a tropical depression tomorrow.
Quoting 225. Gearsts:

TS?

That's T2.5. :) NHC usually initiates at T2.0.
231. beell
Quoting 223. 1900hurricane:

Watch this loop of Typhoon Kilo.

You won't regret it.


It's ALIVE!
Quoting 225. Gearsts:

TS?
1.5 is barely a TD. You generally need a Dvorak of 2.5 or more before it's going to be a TS.

EDIT: Dang it! TA beat me again. :-)
Can someone post a loop of kilos duration so far crazy this storms still going
Quoting 223. 1900hurricane:

Watch this loop of Typhoon Kilo.

You won't regret it.
Looks like a powdered sugar doughnut.
Quoting 233. Austin72893:

Can someone post a loop of kilos duration so far crazy this storms still going



see post 223
Quoting 204. hurricanes2018:

I THINK SO BUT STILL TO FAR OUT TO KNOW RIGHT NOW


Caribbean Cruiser , with favorable conditions I suspect!
Quoting 218. Llamaluvr:

Hi Stormpetrol! There is an escaped king cobra in Orlando. We could use you here with the scissors and machete.

funny :)
Wow!
ok so far we know that this thing is most definitely a tropical storm, but no one make predictions there is no way the models can tell you anything past day five so don't get worried if one model one shows a hurricane hitting Florida or somewhere then the next showing a fish storm. So don't rely on the models, but i believe that this could continue on a west track for the next 6 to 10 days so will be very important to watch the ridging is SUPPOSE TO BE HIGH but that's just what the models say so that's just a prediction. This one might effect the leeward island and the other Caribbean islands, no one please scare other people and say it hitting the CONUS we don't know this far out so don't scare people just monitor it i will give it a 30 percent chance currently of it hitting the CONUS this is just a prediction i am not mother nature so don't freak out because i said this
Fred is now a TS again, what a fighter
11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 4
Location: 22.8°N 40.1°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
Fred is a good fishy that wants to find other fishy
at 2 AM we might see tropical depression or tropical storm grace
246. beell
Quoting 240. James1981cane:

ok so far we know that this thing is most definitely a tropical storm, but no one make predictions there is no way the models can tell you anything past day five so don't get worried if one model one shows a hurricane hitting Florida or somewhere then the next showing a fish storm. So don't rely on the models, but i believe that this could continue on a west track for the next 6 to 10 days so will be very important to watch the ridging is SUPPOSE TO BE HIGH but that's just what the models say so that's just a prediction. This one might effect the leeward island and the other Caribbean islands, no one please scare other people and say it hitting the CONUS we don't know this far out so don't scare people just monitor it i will give it a 30 percent chance currently of it hitting the CONUS this is just a prediction i am not mother nature so don't freak out because i said this


A/B ridging actually looks a little on the soft-side in the GFS. Like swiss cheese. It has taken a beating this week due to the troughing that has been in place over the north central Atlantic. Fred has done his part as well. Some latitude gains in the works if that verifies. Quite a bit different look to the southern periphery of the A/B ridge when Danny and Erika were trekking west. Steering currents could be on the weak side...so given enough time, things could change!



Monday's ridge at 700 mb
Quoting 244. James1981cane:

Fred is a good fishy that wants to find other fishy


except he is not a fish storm since he impacted land
Quoting 245. James1981cane:

at 2 AM we might see tropical depression or tropical storm grace



no nhc forecast updates at 2am, maybe 5am
Quoting 244. James1981cane:

Fred is a good fishy that wants to find other fishy



fred is not a fish it hit the CV so that makes it not a fish
...FRED REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STATUS...
11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 4
Location: 22.8°N 40.1°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.8N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 23.2N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.9N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 25.3N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 27.1N 41.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 30.5N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 34.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 36.0N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH





The thing is it would have to be built tough to survive the carribbean
the storms have been very hard to get rid of this year.Bill,Danny,Erika and now Fred didn't go own without a fight.
Like I said earlier Fred the Dread, regains TS status!
Quoting 250. pablosyn:





Those loops show something interesting. Looks like a shockwave comes out from the convection, just as it starts to wane. It's not a low level outflow boundary, and the shear is pretty strong in almost the opposite direction in the upper levels. Does anyone know what this is?
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.



Nadine's brother it seems like
Tropical Storm FRED
11:00 PM AST Fri Sep 4 2015
Location: 22.8°N 40.1°W
Moving: WNW at 10 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN
TROPICAL STORM FRED DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062015
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 04 2015

An ASCAT-A pass just before 0000 UTC showed a small area of 35-kt
winds northeast of Fred's center, and that is the basis for the
initial intensity, making Fred a tropical storm once again. The
central pressure has been adjusted upward to 1009 mb based on
observations from drifting buoy 13519, as it appears Fred is now
embedded in an environment of higher pressure. Despite rather
hostile vertical shear, Fred has managed to maintain enough
organized deep convection during the past couple of days to stave
off post-tropical status. The latest burst of convection is now
moving away from the low-level center, but this bursting pattern
seems likely to continue for the next couple of days as the cyclone
moves over gradually warmer waters in moderate to strong shear.
Since Fred has survived this long, it seems less likely that the
cyclone will become post-tropical in the short term, and that is no
longer shown in the official forecast. However, given our limited
ability to predict convective scale changes, this still remains a
possibility.

Little significant change in intensity is shown in the first 48
hours, as the guidance shows Fred between 30 and 35 kt during that
time. Subsequently, as the shear weakens all of the guidance shows
at least some strengthening. The NHC forecast shows only a modest
re-intensification later in the period, given the possibility that
the circulation of Fred could open up or be absorbed in 4 or 5 days
as shown by the GFS and ECMWF models.

The initial motion estimate is 290/09, and Fred should begin to move
around the western periphery of the subtropical ridge during the
next couple of days and then turn northeastward in the mid-latitude
westerlies. This cycle the models have trended faster with the
forward speed of Fred, and have shown a northward shift after 48
hours. The NHC forecast has been adjusted to account for these
trends, but now lies on the right side of the guidance envelope at
days 3 through 5. Given the large spread at these time ranges, and
the possibility that Fred could be absorbed or dissipate late in the
period, the extended portion of the track forecast is of lower than
normal confidence.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 22.8N 40.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 23.2N 41.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.9N 42.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 25.3N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 27.1N 41.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 30.5N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 34.5N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 36.0N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
Hmm Fred regains TS status wow a true fighter of 2015 that's for sure hmm no longer expecting Fred to become post tropical and redevelop now forecast just has it weakening to a TD then restrengthen back to TS status

91L I'll stay PRE TD 7 or PRE TS Grace I say advisories should start at 5am or 11am the latest IMO

Another system in front of 91L I wonder if this could move quicker than 91L and become another system or 91L and this other system merges

What happened with the remains of Erika I thought she was trying to make a come back

Nice little system in the W Caribbean near Honduras I hope they get some rain they need it

In the post-season analysis I wonder if they'll promote Fred back to TS status for the previous two advisories as well.
Quoting 204. hurricanes2018:

I THINK SO BUT STILL TO FAR OUT TO KNOW RIGHT NOW

I agree, just based on it being September especially and the fact (as stated earlier) that most are anyways. Not a guarantee at this point though.
Quoting 184. hurricanes2018:



why is showing tropical storm!!


Why is (what) showing tropical storm?
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO DISCUSSION NUMBER 45
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP122015
500 PM HST FRI SEP 04 2015

IGNACIO CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LAYERED CLOUDS WITHOUT
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TO
BE CLASSIFIED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THUS...AFTER COORDINATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...THE SYSTEM IS BEING RECLASSIFIED AS A
55 KT POST-TROPICAL LOW. THE SYSTEM IS OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 24C NOW...AND SST WILL LOWER QUICKLY ALONG THE TRACK FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO SUB-20C BY 36 HOURS. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SLOW WEAKENING TREND. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY
FOLLOWS THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...WHICH ARE IN REASONABLY GOOD
AGREEMENT. THE TRACK FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
TO THE LEFT ONCE AGAIN TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED GUIDANCE CONSENSUS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WAS
PROVIDED BY THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER /OPC/ IN WASHINGTON D.C.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM FROM THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS FROM
OPC FOR FUTURE FORECASTS UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFEP1 AND WMO HEADER
FZPN01 KWBC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 35.5N 164.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 37.6N 165.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 06/0000Z 40.4N 165.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
36H 06/1200Z 42.5N 165.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
48H 07/0000Z 44.3N 164.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 08/0000Z 48.4N 152.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/0000Z 50.3N 139.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/0000Z 55.0N 138.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP


Grace in the race!
Quoting 264. HurriHistory:



Grace in the race!


Do not call it something it is not. This is still invest 91L
Slow slow blog
267. FOREX
Quoting 240. James1981cane:

ok so far we know that this thing is most definitely a tropical storm, but no one make predictions there is no way the models can tell you anything past day five so don't get worried if one model one shows a hurricane hitting Florida or somewhere then the next showing a fish storm. So don't rely on the models, but i believe that this could continue on a west track for the next 6 to 10 days so will be very important to watch the ridging is SUPPOSE TO BE HIGH but that's just what the models say so that's just a prediction. This one might effect the leeward island and the other Caribbean islands, no one please scare other people and say it hitting the CONUS we don't know this far out so don't scare people just monitor it i will give it a 30 percent chance currently of it hitting the CONUS this is just a prediction i am not mother nature so don't freak out because i said this
As soon as it hits the Islnds it will be torn apart according to the top experts, whether it goes through the Islands or North of them. We will watch and wait.
This might be intersting to watch
Quoting 266. CaribBoy:

Slow slow blog



Did you get any snow today?
271. csmda
Quoting 260. hurricanes2018:




That looks like a prosthetic leg. Such an odd path to assume.
Possibly high level outflow clouds that allowed the convection to breathe for a short amount of time? It may have been moving so fast you couldn't see it.
Quoting 254. TimSoCal:



Those loops show something interesting. Looks like a shockwave comes out from the convection, just as it starts to wane. It's not a low level outflow boundary, and the shear is pretty strong in almost the opposite direction in the upper levels. Does anyone know what this is?
Good season, escpically for an El Niño year.
Quoting 258. wunderkidcayman:

Hmm Fred regains TS status wow a true fighter of 2015 that's for sure hmm no longer expecting Fred to become post tropical and redevelop now forecast just has it weakening to a TD then restrengthen back to TS status

91L I'll stay PRE TD 7 or PRE TS Grace I say advisories should start at 5am or 11am the latest IMO

Another system in front of 91L I wonder if this could move quicker than 91L and become another system or 91L and this other system merges

What happened with the remains of Erika I thought she was trying to make a come back

Nice little system in the W Caribbean near Honduras I hope they get some rain they need it


Quoting 270. Gearsts:




Those 3.0 anomalies have been expanding the last few days. New CPC report next week ought to be interesting.
ALERT ATCF MIL 91X XXX 150905000000
2015090500
11.3 337.7
11.9 327.4
150
11.1 337.9
050300
1509050300
1
WTNT21 KNGU 050300
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.3N 22.3W TO 11.9N 32.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 050000Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 22.1W.
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: INVEST 91L IS CURRENTLY AT 11.1N 22.1W MOVING WEST AT
13 KTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW AND HAS PERSISTED AND
EXPANDED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
FURTHER DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE
TO LOW SHEAR AND FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 060300Z.//
9115090300 105N 111W 15
9115090306 105N 123W 15
9115090312 106N 137W 15
9115090318 106N 153W 15
9115090400 107N 169W 20
9115090406 109N 181W 25
9115090412 110N 196W 25
9115090418 111N 213W 25
9115090500 111N 221W 25

00Z GFS is confusing...
Quoting 254. TimSoCal:



Those loops show something interesting. Looks like a shockwave comes out from the convection, just as it starts to wane. It's not a low level outflow boundary, and the shear is pretty strong in almost the opposite direction in the upper levels. Does anyone know what this is?
the next update will come out soon we will see
Quoting 254. TimSoCal:



Those loops show something interesting. Looks like a shockwave comes out from the convection, just as it starts to wane. It's not a low level outflow boundary, and the shear is pretty strong in almost the opposite direction in the upper levels. Does anyone know what this is?
. Link. Could it be a large drop in pressure
New TWO no changes
Quoting 278. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




I think cyclogenesis has occurred.
Quoting 282. HurrMichaelOrl:



I think cyclogenesis has occurred.
waitin on first visible I reckon
We need rain and plenty of it in Saraland Alabama the grass has a crunch to it when you step on it, shoot no need to cut grass just walk back and forth a few times and that takes care of that. Haven't had any measurable rain in three and half weeks and before that very little,we could have used some of what you folks in Florida got but all we can do is hope we had a T.D named Danny of course that sit in mobile bay a few days back in 97 or 98 man we need a storm like that again we don't have anything that I can see coming our way but still hoping. Come on tropics heat up in the gulf we just need a slow moving depression to park on the Miss. Ala. Border and prayer answers that would be. Sorry y'all had to put up with my fuss y'all have a good evening.
I note that they have Fred back in the green ready for his visit to the Azores for a mid September surprise!

Europe's had a record-breaking summer. Just four hundred miles north, in the northern UK, we've had an unusually cool and wet one. No justice!
Good morning. Amazing and frightening video:



Original blog:
Our escape from a flash flood in Hawaii caught on drone

Maui drone video shows power of flash flood
Man goes over falls after losing his grip in torrent of water
UPDATED 11:21 PM HST Sep 03, 2015
AST MAUI, Hawaii —We’ve all heard the warnings, but few of us have experienced a flash flood up close and personal. For a group of six friends who hiked Commando Trail in East Maui last Friday, the rapidly rising waters of Na'ili'ili Haele Stream nearly claimed one of their lives. ...
Good morning.

The site of Levi is down.

Fred is sill alive and 91L is almost a TD (Maybe is one already?) is what is going on this morning in Atlantic.
Levi's site is up now. None of the hurricane models have 91L a strong storm 5 days out.
Quoting 157. stormpetrol:

The wave just in front of 91L has a little spin to it too


I quite agree- indeed the wave to the front of 91L Definitely has pronounced spin- and appears to not have additional areas of LLC or 'false' centers of circulation as Erika appeared to have. After extensive analysis of the radar loops during Erika's passage near Dominica, it appears that one of those additional LLC of circulation did contribute to the exceptional intense thunderstorm convection (a form of CDO) And the resultant Massive Flash Flood impact island-wide.
Good morning

A humid 79 with a blue sky and no breeze here on the island today.

Now, pay attention here. I finally got the right combination!! Hang the laundry to dry, wash the car, leave all house windows open while you go to work for the day AND prime an outside-facing door and frame! The MINUTE you get that paint on, it's going to pour!!! (it made a lovely mess too)

I've no idea how much came down but what a relief to get some water. We've staved off the water truck once again!

Hope all is well!

Lindy



292. FOREX
91L not on TWC "worried about" list according to this morning's Tropical update. Conditions too hostile.
Hmm... Fred's raw T-number is quite high compared with the CI#.
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
1.6 /1015.1mb/ 26.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
1.5 2.0 3.4
guess its the next trough that pulls Fred north. i dont see further development to its south until fred leaves the picture
nica tw? maybe in the boc
Re: the "shock wave" from 91L. Appears to be mostly a three hour jump in the sequence of satellite shots.
A little hail in Naples/Italy this morning (umm):


Source: Corriere della Sera %u200F@Corriereit 9 Min.Vor 9 Minuten
Maltempo: Roma sott'acqua, nubifragio all'alba a Milano E a Napoli maxi grandinata http://goo.gl/bGwSVH
(tweet says that there was flooding in Rome and Milan as well).



Flashflooding in Naples as well (video).


Another impressive video from the region of Naples.



Matches today's forecast from Estofex (extreme level 3 for the region of Naples/Italy and the way towards the east over the Adriatic Sea).


invest 91L Sstarting to move wnw in the last few hours
Quoting 292. FOREX:

91L not on TWC "worried about" list according to this morning's Tropical update. Conditions too hostile.


They are probably worried about another Erika debacle. But the 8am outlook from NHC says

" 1. Satellite images and ship observations this morning indicate that a
tropical depression could be forming about 200 miles south of the
Cape Verde Islands. If this trend continues, advisories would be
initiated later today. Environmental conditions appear to be
favorable for additional development, at least for the next two or
three days, while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent"

So I kinda see where they are coming from I guess
TC formation chances have increased to 80 % and 90 % for 90 L. Advisories could be started soon, according to NHC. Conditions appear good at least for the next two to three days...
Quoting 299. George1938:



They are probably worried about another Erika debacle. But the 8am outlook from NHC says

" 1. Satellite images and ship observations this morning indicate that a
tropical depression could be forming about 200 miles south of the
Cape Verde Islands. If this trend continues, advisories would be
initiated later today. Environmental conditions appear to be
favorable for additional development, at least for the next two or
three days, while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent"

So I kinda see where they are coming from I guess



Erika debacle? Please elaborate. The NHC's discussions were full of statements involving uncertainty and poor reliability in the forecast and the models were plagued by poor initialization. What would you have them do instead, ignore all model guidance? Ignore the steering currents and atmospheric data? Maybe just make up a track that lacked any observational support? This reeks of amateurish crapping on the NHC, another common issue during hurricane season. Sure the forecast was incorrect, but please do explain how it could have been better given the context.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fred, located more than a thousand miles southwest of the
Azores.

Satellite images and ship observations this morning indicate that a
tropical depression could be forming about 200 miles south of the
Cape Verde Islands. If this trend continues, advisories would be
initiated later today. Environmental conditions appear to be
favorable for additional development, at least for the next two or
three days, while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent
Gee, I must be gettin' some dead pixels with all these white spots on my screen


Dvoark numbers are 2.5 2.5 for 91L
Quoting 286. FormerAussie:

Europe's had a record-breaking summer. Just four hundred miles north, in the northern UK, we've had an unusually cool and wet one. No justice!


We have a saying here in Florida...."if ya don't like the weather, wait 10 minutes or move 10 miles"
Quoting 301. Naga5000:



Erika debacle? Please elaborate. The NHC's discussions were full of statements involving uncertainty and poor reliability in the forecast and the models were plagued by poor initialization. What would you have them do instead, ignore all model guidance? Ignore the steering currents and atmospheric data? Maybe just make up a track that lacked any observational support? This reeks of amateurish crapping on the NHC, another common issue during hurricane season. Sure the forecast was incorrect, but please do explain how it could have been better given the context.


Talking about over predicting/misinformation on what the media relayed from the NHC advisories not the NHC, relax relax, sorry I should have been more clear. And the fact Rick Perry issued the State of Emergency before a watch or warning was issued. Though he was good of heart for it just a bit premature. They just (meaning TWC in my quoted comment saying conditions are to hostile so they aren't concerned) I said I see why because even the official NHC outlook calls for conditions to become less favorable after 3 days. Probly should have been more clear on that also.
Rick Perry?

He is a Texas Guv'na, not a Fla one, that is Rick Scott.

AL, 91, 2015090506, , BEST, 0, 119N, 228W, 25, 1010, DB
AL, 91, 2015090512, , BEST, 0, 122N, 246W, 30, 1008, DB

it seems so far el nino is winning but the cyclones are sure giving it a go.
Quoting 308. Patrap:

Rick Perry?

He is a Texas Guv'na, not a Fla one, that is Rick Scott.




I love how stupidly brilliantly stupid I am 100% of the time. Time for a nap lol
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
916 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671-FLZ063-066>075-168-172 >174-GMZ656-657-676-
060130-
LAKE OKEECHOBEE-BISCAYNE BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM JUPITER INLET TO DEERFIELD BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO OCEAN REEF, FL EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO THE TERRITORIAL WATERS OF THE BAHAMAS-GLADES-HENDRY-
INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-INLAND COLLIER-
INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-METRO MIAMI DADE-
MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE, FL OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM CHOKOLOSKEE TO BONITA BEACH, FL EXTENDING FROM
20 TO 60 NM-
916 AM EDT SAT SEP 5 2015

...THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS STORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
TODAY ARE EXPECTED. THE PRIMARY IMPACT WILL BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, SMALL
HAIL, AND GUSTY WINDS.

FLOODING: LOCALIZED URBAN STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

WIND: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH
MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

HAIL: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

WATERSPOUTS: THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND BISCAYNE BAY, MAINLY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
38.6°C on 2 September at Fălești = new September all-time heat record for Moldova.
Quoting 312. George1938:



I love how stupidly brilliantly stupid I am 100% of the time. Time for a nap lol
Not really. There are extreme similarities in the two.
12z guidance on 91L has shifted more west in the long term due to high rebuilding so I would expect a similar path to Erika/Danny

Based on satellite imagery 91L is likely a TD at the moment. You can see some more spiral banding developing around a well-define LLC within that moist environment. Maybe an upgrade at 11 a.m.

Quoting 289. TheBigBanana:

Levi's site is up now. None of the hurricane models have 91L a strong storm 5 days out.
Its the peak time. Even when conditions are not good, can still get a little something .
Quoting 306. KuCommando:



We have a saying here in Florida...."if ya don't like the weather, wait 10 minutes or move 10 miles"
You could divide that figure by ten, and it would be just as accurate.
Really not much left of Fred but he's developed this very tiny eye ..



91L. No model yet has a very strong system



Just a personal note. I think the NHC did a responsible job on Erika and so did a lot of members on here. Almost every report mentioned dry air and shear. There are always some on here a little over enthusiastic, but that is the blog. From the Doc down to us, everyone knows intensity is the most difficult to predict. If any system is not at the strength expected, it is normally reflected in the updated model runs. Because a storm doesn't go where we want it to go, it doesn't mean the NHC was wrong.

It must be a difficult year for forecasters due to the unusual el Nino conditions and unpredictability of the atmosphere. I, for one, happen to enjoy the models changing. It is technology at its finest. We can repost a model and even write excellent analyses, but we must remember the information we provide has already been done by someone else, regardless of how much we would like to take credit. I enjoy the blog by reading everyone's impressions. It is what we are here for, so enjoy it. In the final analysis, follow the true experts and me of course.
:)
Wow. Look at this.

Quoting 320. Grothar:

91L. No model yet has a very strong system



Just a personal note. I think the NHC did a responsible job on Erika and so did a lot of members on here. Almost every report mentioned dry air and shear. There are always some on here a little over enthusiastic, but that is the blog. From the Doc down to us, everyone knows intensity is the most difficult to predict. If any system is not at the strength expected, it is normally reflected in the updated model runs. Because a storm doesn't go where we want it to go, it doesn't mean the NHC was wrong.

It must be a difficult year for forecasters due to the unusual el Nino conditions and unpredictability of the atmosphere. I, for one, happen to enjoy the models changing. It is technology at its finest. We can repost a model and even write excellent analyses, but we must remember the information we provide has already been done by someone else, regardless of how much we would like to take credit. I enjoy the blog by reading everyone's impressions. It is what we are here for, so enjoy it. In the final analysis, follow the true experts and me of course.
:)
Many pluses . Erika's track and environment made it a difficult storm to forecast.
Quoting 316. Ricki13th:

12z guidance on 91L has shifted more west in the long term due to high rebuilding so I would expect a similar path to Erika/Danny

Based on satellite imagery 91L is likely a TD at the moment. You can see some more spiral banding developing around a well-define LLC within that moist environment. Maybe an upgrade at 11 a.m.




Yes, some of them have.

Quoting 308. Patrap:

Rick Perry?

He is a Texas Guv'na, not a Fla one, that is Rick Scott.



Ha! I've got a problem with ANY governor NAMED 'Rick'. Just don't seem to do a good job IMHO.


Idk if this is a TS
19 years to the day since the last major hurricane hit North Carolina, and it's what got my young interest into meteorology. The late Jim Leonard's account [Link].




Environmental conditions appear to be
favorable for additional development, at least for the next two or
three days
, while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across
the tropical Atlantic.

After that : RIP.

Quoting 322. hydrus:

Many pluses . Erika's track and environment made it a difficult storm to forecast.

In several NHC advisories, starting with Hispaniola area, their forecast included an "IF" Erika survives clause.
With the conditions in the ATL, Carb. And GOM this year, its not surprising there is a longer wait this year to declare a TD. Much about timing for development. The storms have to "tippy toe" through hostile conditions. Euro seems to like an area that follows 91L. We shall see.


Bye Kevin!
Quoting 307. George1938:



Talking about over predicting/misinformation on what the media relayed from the NHC advisories not the NHC, relax relax, sorry I should have been more clear. And the fact Rick Perry issued the State of Emergency before a watch or warning was issued. Though he was good of heart for it just a bit premature. They just (meaning TWC in my quoted comment saying conditions are to hostile so they aren't concerned) I said I see why because even the official NHC outlook calls for conditions to become less favorable after 3 days. Probly should have been more clear on that also.


First, you need to get the names correct, Perry is an ex-Governor of Texas. Rick Scott is the Governor of Florida and he is the one that declared the State of Emergency.
One of the harsh lessons that the State of Florida learned when the possibility or reality of a storm looms in the horizon is that price gouging for commodities such as lumber, gasoline, etc. became a common practice. Price gouging statutes were enacted that call for severe penalties and fines once the emergency is declared by the State government and is a huge reason why the emergency is declared well ahead of time.
ok guys whats stop all ready with the Political comments and get back on topic with the weather and the Political comments are way off topic of the blog topic
Quoting 333. JrWeathermanFL:




None of the intensity models forecast it'll even reach hurricane strength....
Accuweather on Ignacio igniting stormy conditions in the Pacific northwest [Link], the GFS for sure has depicted this scenario for almost a week now.
Why does Kilo's eye look rectangular to me?
338. SLU
05/1145 UTC 12.3N 24.6W T2.5/2.5 91L -- Atlantic
Quoting 321. Grothar:

Wow. Look at this.




Great Rick Scott!
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 25.2W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical
Depression Seven was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude
25.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next two
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next 48 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...
Quoting 339. GeoffreyWPB:



Great Rick Scott!



pleaee stop with the Political comments its way off topic of the blog topic
344. SLU
11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 5
Location: 12.3°N 25.2°W
Moving: W at 14 mph
Min pressure: 1008 mb
Max sustained: 35 mph
Now this photo of an even bigger hailstone (see post #297) from this morning's epic hailstorm in Naples/Italy and regions nearby emerges on several European weather sites. "Mobile sized hail", wow! Of course there is a lot of damage: several injuries of humans and animals, destroyed agriculture, damaged cars and so on.


Source: Meteo Europe.

When the hailstorm hit it looked as if Vesuvio was errupting, lol:


Source: Pic is all over the internet, f.e. here.

Edit: Hailstone and damage photo gallery from Pozzuoli (near Naples/Italy).
Fred has been decapitated again by strong westerly wind shear.
However, the low-level circulation continues to be vigorous. The
initial intensity remains at 35 kt, based on satellite estimates and
continuity. I will not speculate any more about the convection
redeveloping or not.
The NHC forecast calls for little change in
intensity during the next 36 hours. If resilient Fred survives the
next day or so, there is a chance of slight re-intensification as
indicated by the SHIPS/GFS and SHIPS/ECMWF intensity guidance.

Fred is about to reach a break in the subtropical ridge where the
steering currents are weaker, and is now moving toward the west-
northwest at about 7 kt. A turn to the northwest and north should
begin later today, and by Sunday night, Fred should recurve as it
becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerly flow. The NHC
forecast follows the trend of all the models, but is closer to the
GFS and the ECMWF solutions.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015
900 AM MDT SAT SEP 05 2015

Strong south-southwesterly vertical wind shear of around 30 kt
removed deep convection from Kevin's low-level circulation,
beginning around 0000 UTC. The deep convection, along with Kevin's
mid-level circulation, has since dissipated. With no active
convection for some time, Kevin is being declared a post-tropical
remnant low. The initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt in
accordance with the latest satellite classifications and based on
the assumption that some spin down of the circulation has occurred
since the last advisory. Global models depict Kevin degenerating
into a trough of low pressure in about 12 hours, and the official
forecast indicates dissipation in about a day.

The cyclone was moving north-northeastward overnight while slowing
down, but has since turned northward and recently north-
northwestward. The initial motion estimate is now 340/06. A turn
toward the northwest is expected before the cyclone dissipates
tomorrow in agreement with the track model guidance.

For additional information on this remnant low, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web
at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml .

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 23.6N 114.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED
91L looks good right now and could become a 60mph tropical storm before conditions go down hill for it.By going west into the caribbean it is practically writing its own death wish and we'll be waving sayonara to it just like Danny and Erika.Hispaniola has been the sacrificial lamb of the basin this year killing what's left of a storm if the shear and dry air haven't finished it off.
Quoting 327. win1gamegiantsplease:

19 years to the day since the last major hurricane hit North Carolina, and it's what got my young interest into meteorology.


That's also the same storm that got me into meteorology, specifically tropical meteorology! I rode out the eye of hurricane Fran in Raleigh, North Carolina. I was in third grade at the time. We first started riding it out in the living room in the early morning hours until we heard glass shatter in the distance (it was probably a window from one of our neighbors). I remember waking up the next morning to the smell of pine outside because so many trees were down, some of which had fallen and cut through so many roofs. I've never seen storm damage like that before or since that time. School was out for a while, no power for days, so it was hot and humid & we passed the time by doing puppet shadows in the candle light by night....

Where did you ride out Fran? Anyone else have any Fran stories?
looks like we have another Tropical Depression of the year. Will be fun to watch
Discussion excerpts:

This should halt any additional strengthening, and most likely the cyclone will
weaken or could even dissipate well east of the Lesser Antilles.

This is the solution of the models, except the ECMWF that does not
acknowledge the existence of a cyclone.

Quoting 348. washingtonian115:

91L looks good right now and could become a 60mph tropical storm before conditions go down hill for it.By going west into the caribbean it is practically writing its own death wish and we'll be waving sayonara to it just like Danny and Erika.Hispaniola has been the sacrificial lamb of the basin this year killing what's left of a storm if the shear and dry air haven't finished it off.



you mean TD 7
Quoting 348. washingtonian115:

91L looks good right now and could become a 60mph tropical storm before conditions go down hill for it.By going west into the caribbean it is practically writing its own death wish and we'll be waving sayonara to it just like Danny and Erika.Hispaniola has been the sacrificial lamb of the basin this year killing what's left of a storm if the shear and dry air haven't finished it off.
Really has been the shredder this year.
Tropical Depression 7 poised to become Tropical Storm Grace either later today or tomorrow.

TD 7 to be another "opposite storm", intensifying way out east, weakening as it comes west. It's got about 2-3 days of favorable conditions. The NHC forecast looks very reasonable to me. It's quite small, so if it can develop an inner core in the next day or so, it may strengthen more than forecast. Conversely, even if this happens, it's also very possible it dissipates towards the end of the forecast period. Similar to Danny.

Quoting 348. washingtonian115:

91L looks good right now and could become a 60mph tropical storm before conditions go down hill for it.By going west into the caribbean it is practically writing its own death wish and we'll be waving sayonara to it just like Danny and Erika.Hispaniola has been the sacrificial lamb of the basin this year killing what's left of a storm if the shear and dry air haven't finished it off.

That's similar to my predictions on 91L in my latest blog post. Its possible that it dies from shear even before making it to the Caribbean or western Atlantic. After all, this is an El Nino year. By the way, I've noticed this year in particular has had a corridor of hostile conditions staring in the Caribbean, extending diagonally northeasatward essentially to the Azores. Storms have been able to develop southeast of the corridor (Danny, Erika, Fred, and 91L), or northwest of the Corridor (Ana, Bill, and Claudette). But no storm so far this year has been able to go through that corridor and survive.
INIT 05/1500Z 12.3N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 12.5N 26.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 12.8N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 13.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 13.5N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 14.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 15.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 15.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH


Same story once again...

RIP
Aw Fran :) rubbing nothing but salt in the already exposed and torn wound......First it was her friend Bonnie...then she came chugging along causing more flooding and wind problems as if we needed anymore...Trees toppled easily because of the already saturated ground.
I guess it will all depend on what 91L can do over the next few days. Contrary to what most of the models were showing us it seemed that Erika was never able to get a full grip on herself before the hostile conditions took over.
Quoting 359. CaribBoy:

INIT 05/1500Z 12.3N 25.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 12.5N 26.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 12.8N 29.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 13.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 13.5N 34.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 14.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 15.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 15.5N 50.0W 40 KT 45 MPH


Same story once again...

RIP


Wow call it gone as it is just developing. Comments like these need to seriously stop on this site
Quoting 350. tampahurricane:

looks like we have another Tropical Depression of the year. Will be fun to watch


Won't be so fun to watch in 4-5 days (naked swirl..)
364. Relix

The environment appears to be favorable for gradual strengthening
during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time, most of the global
models forecast a significant increase in shear. This should halt
any additional strengthening, and most likely the cyclone will
weaken or could even dissipate well east of the Lesser Antilles.
Quoting 362. Hurricanes101:



Wow call it gone as it is just developing. Comments like these need to seriously stop on this site


But this kind of comments is actually very realistic after Danny and Erika... in a boring El Nino year.

So sorry about that.
Looking at CIMMS, the circulations appear stacked at least. I don't think Erika was ever able to do that.

Quoting 353. Climate175:






Once again, will it be able to overcome the hostile conditions on down the road?
The margin for error will be small, most models have it west and have it weak in the process.
Could be entertaining though, this has been the sweet spot  this season.  We've had 2 hurricanes prior to 50W, one of which was a major. So it will not surprise me if we get yet another before 50W, but after that longitude it will be tough going.
Quoting 361. ProgressivePulse:

I guess it will all depend on what 91L can do over the next few days. Contrary to what most of the models were showing us it seemed that Erika was never able to get a full grip on herself before the hostile conditions took over.


you mean TD 7
Quoting 358. NCHurricane2009:


That's similar to my predictions on 91L in my latest blog post. Its possible that it dies from shear even before making it to the Caribbean or western Atlantic. After all, this is an El Nino year. By the way, I've noticed this year in particular has had a corridor of hostile conditions staring in the Caribbean, extending diagonally northeasatward essentially to the Azores. Storms have been able to develop southeast of the corridor (Danny, Erika, Fred, and 91L), or northwest of the Corridor (Ana, Bill, and Claudette). But no storm so far this year has been able to go through that corridor and survive.
Good observation! It's been a huge road block.If T.D 7 can go north of the islands it might have a chance on the other side.That was Danny's and Erika's finale straw when they ran into Hispaniola.


We're at 7 storms folks and here some people were saying 4 storms for the entire season was a good bet...well...I suspect we may see 2 or 3 more cape verde storms before the season shuts down and then we look towards the gulf as the fronts start sagging down.
Quoting 367. ILwthrfan:



Once again, will it be able to overcome the hostile conditions on down the road?
The margin for error will be small, most models have it west and have it weak in the process.
Could be entertaining though, this has been the sweet spot  this season.  We've had 2 hurricanes prior to 50W, one of which was a major. So it will not surprise me if we get yet another before 50W, but after that longitude it will be tough going.



Depressing
2016 looks fun i think will see a super LA Nino
SAL has thinned some.



Vertical instability still below climatology.



In regards to TD 7, it will come down to upper level winds in the Caribbean associated with the TUTT that has been over that region for most of the hurricane season, that TUTT would need to back away or move north to allow a ridge to build overhead for TD 7 to have any chance of survival in the long term. In any other year I would put odds above 50% for any strengthening downstream, but record levels of wind shear in the Caribbean make it hard to believe there will be any changes. We will see plenty of time to watch this.
Quoting 367. ILwthrfan:



Once again, will it be able to overcome the hostile conditions on down the road?
The margin for error will be small, most models have it west and have it weak in the process.
Could be entertaining though, this has been the sweet spot this season. We've had 2 hurricanes prior to 50W, one of which was a major. So it will not surprise me if we get yet another before 50W, but after that longitude it will be tough going.

The trend this year has been for storms to look their best and strongest in the Eastern Atlantic, before becoming weaker once they enter the Western Atlantic. We shall see how TD 7 does over the coming days.
Quoting 370. CaribBoy:



Depressing



will you please this stop all ready with your boring commits we dont want too here about it



Quoting 368. Tazmanian:



you mean TD 7


I posted that as NHC was initiating advisories, didn't realize it yet
my forecast has been a failure. i thought for sure having Fred just to the NW would limit development. hello td 7
Not to mention TD7 has formed nearly 25 degrees further east than Erika, more time to get her S together.
like danny will td7 find the sweet spot?
Quoting 365. CaribBoy:



But this kind of comments is actually very realistic after Danny and Erika... in a boring El Nino year.

So sorry about that.


Boring year? 2 TS in the US, two storms that were very interesting to track (Danny and Erika), the 1st ever official hurricane warning for the Cape Verde Islands and now another CV system?

People predicted this year to have ZERO CV storms and that has clearly not happened. We are 2 weeks ahead of climatology of an average season during the strongest El Nino on record. I also bet those who were impacted by Erika in Dominica would not call this a boring year. I am sorry about your drought, but your comments are not constructive
No Labor Day hurricane this year.
Quoting 361. ProgressivePulse:

I guess it will all depend on what 91L can do over the next few days. Contrary to what most of the models were showing us it seemed that Erika was never able to get a full grip on herself before the hostile conditions took over.
Remember most of the models predicted Erika to strengthen into a hurricane, some even a major hurricane, that never happened. So here we are at square one again and none of the reliable models seem terribly bullish on strengthening.
Quoting 381. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Remember most of the models predicted Erika to strengthen into a hurricane, some even a major hurricane, that never happened. So here we are at square one again and none of the reliable models seem terribly bullish on strengthening.


Maybe they are dead wrong in the other direction this time. Taking models with a grain of salt for sure.
Quoting 379. Hurricanes101:



Boring year? 2 TS in the US, two storms that were very interesting to track (Danny and Erika), the 1st ever official hurricane warning for the Cape Verde Islands and now another CV system?

People predicted this year to have ZERO CV storms and that has clearly not happened. We are 2 weeks ahead of climatology of an average season during the strongest El Nino on record. I also bet those who were impacted by Erika in Dominica would not call this a boring year. I am sorry about your drought, but your comments are not constructive



i agreed in tell that kid gets other GONZALO like storms like last year that shuts him up we will not here the end of it but his boring commits needs too stop this year has been fun
384. JLPR2
Once TD 7 develops stronger convection over its very good structure we should have Grace.

At least 2015 managed to have 4 solid cape verde storms..Something that 2012,2013,and 2014 could never achieve.If it wasn't for the TUTT we would have been in major trouble because of the steering pattern and Cariboy would get his wish in more ways than one.We have to see if the steering pattern continues like this into next year.I noted earlier in the season (June) how there has seemed to be a absence in a trough along the east coast. with ridging instead replacing it.
Each storm has it's own special set of circumstances, some more resilient than others as well. Plenty of open water for this one to roam, we'll see soon enough what she has in store for us. When you look back at Erika, I think she was doomed from the beginning.
07L's a pretty straight forward forecast IMO. Perhaps a 60 knot peak before weakening and dissipating before it reaches the islands.

I'm actually more interested in the wave behind 07L's that's going to emerge off Africa soon. GFS is showing that becoming an extremely large and broad wave as it traverses the MDR, but the potential for strengthening exists as it moves north of the islands.

Also, reading Avila's discussions are always hilarious. You can tell he's frustrated with Fred.
Quoting 386. ProgressivePulse:

Each storm has it's own special set of circumstances, some more resilient than others as well. Plenty of open water for this one to roam, we'll see soon enough what she has in store for us. When you look back at Erika, I think she was doomed from the beginning.


Yup, if she had been able to stack her circulations, we could have had a very different outcome
certainly no Luis this yr wandering the atlantic. what about erica? Is that the leftovers of her northeast of the bahamas? thanks cyber i will go look what aviles has to do. he almost has made the central atlantic
Quoting 386. ProgressivePulse:

Each storm has it's own special set of circumstances, some more resilient than others as well. Plenty of open water for this one to roam, we'll see soon enough what she has in store for us. When you look back at Erika, I think she was doomed from the beginning.
Her fast movement and ineligibility to stack her circulations was her downfall not to mention dry air.
Next 3 names on the list: Grace, Henri, and Ida.
Quoting 349. NCHurricane2009:



That's also the same storm that got me into meteorology, specifically tropical meteorology! I rode out the eye of hurricane Fran in Raleigh, North Carolina. I was in third grade at the time. We first started riding it out in the living room in the early morning hours until we heard glass shatter in the distance (it was probably a window from one of our neighbors). I remember waking up the next morning to the smell of pine outside because so many trees were down, some of which had fallen and cut through so many roofs. I've never seen storm damage like that before or since that time. School was out for a while, no power for days, so it was hot and humid & we passed the time by doing puppet shadows in the candle light by night....

Where did you ride out Fran? Anyone else have any Fran stories?


High Point. Nothing like you guys had, but trees down in my neighborhood (one in my yard, also left my bike outside) and our roof got messed up. Had a leak in the bedrooms. I was a few weeks from five years old at the time.
Interesting to see we have Tropical Depression 7. Should become a strong tropical storm/minimal hurricane over the next few days before weakening imo. It seems somewhat large in nature, so wouldn't be surprised if it manages to survive the more hostile conditions near the lesser antilles. If it can get to north of the islands, it should be able to restrengthen. But there's still a while before then, so will be interesting to watch to see what it does. :)
Euro bombed Erica into a cat 4 off of North Carolina 2 runs interesting it doesn't even recognize T.D 7.
Quoting 391. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Next 3 names on the list: Grace, Henri, and Ida.
The I name is coming.
396. JRRP
Quoting 358. NCHurricane2009:


That's similar to my predictions on 91L in my latest blog post. Its possible that it dies from shear even before making it to the Caribbean or western Atlantic. After all, this is an El Nino year. By the way, I've noticed this year in particular has had a corridor of hostile conditions staring in the Caribbean, extending diagonally northeasatward essentially to the Azores. Storms have been able to develop southeast of the corridor (Danny, Erika, Fred, and 91L), or northwest of the Corridor (Ana, Bill, and Claudette). But no storm so far this year has been able to go through that corridor and survive.

It's North of Puerto Rico or bust this year for storms. Shear will likely have the Caribbean shut down the remainder of the season. Strange El-Nino season. Shear as it should be through the Caribbean and instability over MDR is well below average, but those anomalous SST's in the MDR and Eastern Atlantic have overcome conditions. Nothing can reach the Gulf from the East and survive it's looking like. Wondering what the chances are a front leaves behind enough energy in the Gulf to get a storm. Season has been somewhat of a surprise. Sure there's a bigger one yet in store. May be hard to top Fred though.
Quoting 349. NCHurricane2009:



That's also the same storm that got me into meteorology, specifically tropical meteorology! I rode out the eye of hurricane Fran in Raleigh, North Carolina. I was in third grade at the time. We first started riding it out in the living room in the early morning hours until we heard glass shatter in the distance (it was probably a window from one of our neighbors). I remember waking up the next morning to the smell of pine outside because so many trees were down, some of which had fallen and cut through so many roofs. I've never seen storm damage like that before or since that time. School was out for a while, no power for days, so it was hot and humid & we passed the time by doing puppet shadows in the candle light by night....

Where did you ride out Fran? Anyone else have any Fran stories?




yep i have a Fran story. Rode her out right here in Wilmington 2 miles from the coast at my parents house. It waz brick and the whole house was shaking. Miraculously we didnt lose any windows. My dad ( 20 yrs in Marine Corp) took a valium and went to bed. My mom drank a thimble of vodka and went to bed. I went into shock. During the eye, my neighbor yelled that she and her sister had seen an apparition in the back yard. Her husband said " its called a hallucination"
Quoting 398. K8eCane:



yep i have a Fran story. Rode her out right here in Wilmington 2 miles from the coast at my parents house. It waz brick and the whole house was shaking. Miraculously we didnt lose any windows. My dad ( 20 yrs in Marine Corp) took a valium and went to bed. My mom drank a thimble of vodka and went to bed. I went into shock. During the eye, my neighbor yelled that she and her sister had seen an apparition in the back yard. Her husband said " its called a hallucination"


and to this day they swear they saw a ghost in the back yard. i think the gray man was lost
Typhoon Kilo is likely about to enter a period of explosive deepening.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 396. JRRP:


Practically zero shear where T.D 7 will be going during the next few days.A minimal hurricane isn't out of the question.
Quoting 381. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Remember most of the models predicted Erika to strengthen into a hurricane, some even a major hurricane, that never happened. So here we are at square one again and none of the reliable models seem terribly bullish on strengthening.
Did any of the models forecast Danny to become a Cat 3 ?
Quoting 403. stormwatcherCI:

Did any of the models forecast Danny to become a Cat 3 ?


HWRF
Some facts about the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season to date:

First Storm: Ana (formed on May 7, made landfall in North Carolina on Mother's Day but was weak)
Only Gulf of Mexico Storm: Bill (mid-June)
Strongest storm: Danny (category 3)
Longest lasting storm: Fred
First day to have two simultaneous tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin: TODAY (September 5), as of 11 AM EDT....
Quoting 374. Tazmanian:




will you please this stop all ready with your boring commits we dont want too here about it




Think about the same statement regarding your boring and repetitive comments.
408. Wrass
One more thing !! I'm a Captian . Fishing off shore 35 years Sw florida. Heading home 60 degrees. Look for the Anvils. Yea right haven't seen one in 10 years !! All I see is shrooms from cape sable to ft . Myers. What happend to the tower flat tops.????? Gone.