WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Watch out for the bugs

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:56 AM GMT on December 10, 2011

I'm wrapping up my stay in San Francisco for the annual Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the world's largest gathering of Earth Scientists. Over eighteen thousand scientists from all over the world, including most of the world's top climate scientists, were in town this week to exchange ideas to advance the cause of Earth Science. It's been a great opportunity to learn about climate change topics I don't know much about, and I attended a fascinating (and somewhat unnerving) lecture on how global warming is expected to affect insects, titled "The Impact of Global Warming on global crop yields due to changes in pest pressure". Global warming is expected to bring a variety of impacts to agriculture, both positive and negative. Extra CO2 in the atmosphere will tend to increase crop yields, but crop losses due to insect pests are expected to double by 2100, according to a insect pest/crop model designed by David Battisti of the University of Washington. These losses will occur in addition to the expected 35 - 40% decrease in crop yields due to higher temperatures by the end of the century.



When temperature increases, the metabolic rate of insects goes up, requiring that they eat more to survive. In the mid-latitudes, the predicted 2 - 4°C temperature increase by 2100 will require insects to eat double what they do now, in order to survive. The increase in temperature is also expected to enable insect populations to rise by 20%. However, insect populations will fall by 20% in the tropics, where insects have evolved to tolerate a much narrower range of temperatures. Let's look at the world's three most important crops: rice, wheat, and corn. In the four largest rice producing countries--China, India, Bangladesh, and Thailand--Insects currently cause a loss of 10- 20% of the crop, and this is expected to double to 20 - 30% by 2100. These nations have 40% of the world's population, and make 60% of the world's rice. For corn, the world's four largest producers--the U.S., China, France, and Argentina--are expected to see insect pest losses double from 6% to 12%. The story is similar for wheat; pest losses are expected to double from 10% to 20% by 2100. The total increased damage to global agriculture is predicted to be $30 - $50 billion per year by 2100. This will likely contribute greatly to food costs and potential food shortages. The model made a number of simplifications that could greatly change this outcome, though. The model assumed that there would be no change to the number of insects that survive winter, and this number is likely to increase in a warmer climate. Precipitation was not changed to reflect what is expected to happen in a changed climate, and this will cause increases in crop yields in some areas, and decreases in others. Farmers are likely to change growing practices and utilize new pesticides to combat the expected increase in pests, and this was not considered, either. It is interesting to note that during the great natural global warming event of 55 million years ago--the Palecene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)--fossil records of plant leaves show greatly increased levels of damage from insects, supporting the idea that a warmer climate will drive an explosion in the insect population.

Jeff Masters
Locust Clouds over Paamul
Locust Clouds over Paamul
A several miles wide swarm of Locus is moving from Cancun south-west ward over Yucatans Jungle.Paamul, Quintana Roo, Mexico

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

blog 2000
Wow, blog 2000! And it's about.... bugs! :)
Sounds a bit buggy
Post #2000, interesting.

Thanks Dr. Masters
Call ORKIN!!!!!
So Angela, what do you think about that?
Thanks Dr Masters! That was one of the more interesting blogs lately.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Call ORKIN!!!!!


unless u live on the equator then cancel it
Yay! 2,000 blog posts!

Dr. Master's first post happens to be very interesting.

360-degree rainbow.
Very informational post. Thanks, and congrats on #2000 Doc.

So is the issue of climate change "bugging" anyone yet?
So Blog 2000!! An important mark in our blog history, Tropics Quiet, Alenga is officially gone and thus the wold is void of cyclones. Just thought I'd mention the simple things. Well have fun discussing tonight, I'ma cheak back in later.
Bugs deserve recognition.
Winds are howling, lots of lightning and a ton of rain outside.
The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued an

* Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for minor flooding of poor
drainage areas in
for the following municipalities...

in Puerto Rico
Bayamon... Corozal... Guaynabo... Morovis... San Juan... Vega Alta...
Vega Baja... Dorado... Toa Alta... Toa Baja and Catano

* until 1145 PM AST

* at 945 PM AST... Doppler radar indicated very heavy rain in the
advisory area. Rainfall rates of one to two inches per hour have
been estimated with these storms.

Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause elevated levels on
small creeks and streams... and ponding of water in urban areas...
highways... streets and underpasses as well as other poor drainage
areas and low lying spots.

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.


Lat... Lon 1848 6617 1846 6617 1848 6614 1847 6612
1845 6612 1846 6611 1846 6604 1836 6611
1833 6628 1827 6645 1849 6643


Er
What a cold, cold weekend.
Congrads on #2,000 ...... Another mind blower out of San Fran -

2010 Spike in Greenland Ice Loss Lifted Bedrock, GPS Reveals

ScienceDaily (Dec. 9, 2011) — An unusually hot melting season in
2010 accelerated ice loss in southern Greenland by 100 billion tons —
and large portions of the island’s bedrock rose an additional quarter of
an inch in response.


http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2011/12/1112 09123214.htm
That 1/4 of an inch happened in just 5 months.

The human-caused release of increased carbon dioxide
into the atmosphere also presents climate scientists with something
they’ve never seen in the 65 million year record of carbon dioxide
levels – a drastic rate of increase that makes it difficult to predict
how rapidly the Earth will respond. In periods when carbon dioxide has
increased due to natural causes, the rate of increase averaged about
.0001 parts per million per year – in other words, one hundred parts per
million every million years. Fossil fuel burning is now causing carbon
dioxide concentrations to increase at two parts per million per year.
“Humans have overwhelmed the natural, slow changes that occur on geologic timescales,” Hansen said.

http://www.sciencecodex.com/read/paleoclimate_rec ord_points_toward_potential_rapid_climate_changes- 82848
The blog is new, but somehow, already dead.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
The blog is new, but somehow, already dead.

Its December...never had a chance.
?
Happy two thousandth blog, Jeff!
The bugs will probably outlast humans on the planet.
Quoting sunlinepr:


What's with that low that is in the upper right corner? It's way too far south and has too deep of convection for it to not be considered something tropical-ish in nature...

It has no model support though, but neither did most of the storms this year.
Talking about European economics.... EU meeting / voting was hot today....


Surreal moment: A treaty to save the Euro may end up splitting Europe

December 9, 2011 – EUROPE – European leaders, meeting until the early hours of Friday, agreed to sign an intergovernmental treaty that would require them to enforce stricter fiscal and financial discipline in their future budgets. But efforts to get unanimity among the 27 members of the European Union, as desired by Germany, failed as Britain refused to go along.

Quoting yqt1001:


What's with that low that is in the upper right corner? It's way too far south and has too deep of convection for it to not be considered something tropical-ish in nature...

It has no model support though, but neither did most of the storms this year.


UL Low.... We are going to get wet this weekend....
Quoting sunlinepr:


UL Low.... We are going to get wet this weekend....


Ah. Thanks.
Quoting yqt1001:


What's with that low that is in the upper right corner? It's way too far south and has too deep of convection for it to not be considered something tropical-ish in nature...

It has no model support though, but neither did most of the storms this year.

Its the thing the models were developing several days ago.
165 mph Winds recorded? Link

Scotland Shut Down By Icy 165mph Blasts

10:00pm UK, Thursday December 08, 2011
A fierce storm with winds of up to 165mph has battered northern parts of Britain, with people warned to stay indoors, schools forced to close and flights and rail links cancelled.

Hello all.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Hello all.

:O
2010 Spike in Greenland Ice Loss Lifted Bedrock, GPS Reveals

ScienceDaily (Dec. 9, 2011) — An unusually hot melting season in 2010 accelerated ice loss in southern Greenland by 100 billion tons -- and large portions of the island's bedrock rose an additional quarter of an inch in response.

That's the finding from a network of nearly 50 GPS stations planted along the Greenland coast to measure the bedrock's natural response to the ever-diminishing weight of ice above it.


The 2010 Uplift Anomaly (green arrows), superimposed on a map showing the 2010 Melting Day Anomaly (shaded in red), which was produced by R. Simmon of the NASA Earth Observatory using data provided by M. Tedesco. (Credit: Courtesy of Ohio State University.)
How have things been going TropicalAnalystwx13?
This is post 2001 since the count starts at zero. Still pretty cool.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
How have things been going TropicalAnalystwx13?

Good? How are things over...well, wherever you are at. :P
Cool article sunlinepr and ColoradoBob. Starting to read it now.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Hello all.


Well you are an unexpected surprise.
It is clear and cold, was in upper teens and now approaching freezing. We'll be in upper 40s today I think.
Scientists Assess Radioactivity in the Ocean from Japan Nuclear Power Facility


This is weird.... the study concludes:

Their study finds that the levels of radioactivity, while high, are not a direct threat to humans or marine life, but cautions that the effect of accumulated radionuclides in marine sediments is poorly known.


BUT:

Concentrations of cesium-137, a radioactive isotope with a 30-year half-life, at the plants' discharge points to the ocean peaked at more than 50 million times normal/previous levels.

Concentrations 18 miles offshore were higher than those measured in the ocean after the Chernobyl accident 25 years ago.
Quiet morning. Have a meeting at 10, but thought I'd check what's doing in here.


ice surging
Hi Vabeachhurricanes.

Quiet on a Friday night back there isn't it?
If you like Mars exploration:

(Free download) New Tool for Touring Mars Using Detailed Images


ScienceDaily (Dec. 7, 2011)- An improved tool debuts Dec. 7 for viewing channels, dunes, boulders and other features revealed in the huge image files from the High Resolution Imaging Science Experiment (HiRISE) camera on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter

Link
I am amazed at this post Doc. All I can ask since so much is already disclaimer-ed. What exactly did they use in the model coding to reach the conclusion provided with such deficiencies? I think we deserve more.

Just sayin, pretty provocative.

I know, I better run >

climate change, climate change, all you ever here about...
there was a halo around the moon when i got home a few mins ago. Central NC here, anything special?
That means there are ice crystal clouds like cirrus. Thin ice crystal clouds can cause halos.
Quoting SPLbeater:
there was a halo around the moon when i got home a few mins ago. Central NC here, anything special?


Check again, should be a double Halo :)

Gnight>
What about the ANTS?
More(or less) ants would effect their possible behavior before low pressure arrives. This needs to be watched and incorporated into the ANT model.
it aint double, i dont think
What happened to Grothar? He sent me a nice note Thanksgiving Day and we had some nice chats.
Check the recent blogs. He is out and about.
That's good to know bappit. Don't have time to go through them all. Just looking around a little bit. Disappointing that chat is dead tonight.
Bugs. Before I joined up I took some time off backpacking and at this hostel (hostile?) in Indonesia I saw this giant centipede, almost a foot long crawling across the floor! I whacked it in the middle with a broom handle and BOTH ENDS RAN AWAY IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS!

-shudder-
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Bugs. Before I joined up I took some time off backpacking and at this hostel (hostile?) in Indonesia I saw this giant centipede, almost a foot long crawling across the floor! I whacked it in the middle with a broom handle and BOTH ENDS RAN AWAY IN DIFFERENT DIRECTIONS!

-shudder-


lol. today i was busy outside throwing a brick 20 feet in the air knocking down a squirrel nes tthat has been in a holly tree for years, uninhabited xDl entertaining too lol
Weakened a bit. 942 at noon,960 at 0000Z according to OPC
Ugh! Bugs!!! First off we now have drought resistant mosquitoes in Texas!!!! And secondly, how does one exterminate WU bugs? Sigh, maybe all is not lost, it is finally showing my time zone again. So I shall choose to see the positive in things in that that's progress.  :-)

As far as crops go there seems to be a lot left unknown. I'm almost positive Texas and our neighbors didn't put out much or any productive crops this year due to this Mother of all droughts. And I hope this drought comes to an end soon. 

It's hard to remember that in 2010 parts of Texas were flooded from storms that went into Mexico and there was record vegetation growth. Alas that in turn caused record wildfires this past summer when that all died in the drought. And we in the eastern part of the state haven't received heavy rains in a couple of years. Even odder that we are so dry.

I was glad to read in an earlier post that there may be a chance of El Nino by next hurricane season or at the very least no one can say for sure that this La Nina will still be here months away. I'm all for whatever gets this pressure dome off Texas!  Obviously we need rain. But just the evaporation rates from the excessive ( even for TX ) heat were crazy this summer!

And lastly, we, TX, do get the lion's share of our precip from tropical systems. Something I learned this year. Having said that I wouldn't mind an El Nino may seem counter productive to getting that rain but not entirely. Apparently ENSO has no effect on the number of storms that hit TX. When I can link again I will post some of that. And I think DRM wrote something about TX and El Nino? I could be mistaken. Somebody did.  Lol. Anyway, so I'm going to keep a positive  weather attitude for now.  :-)
Quoting sunlinepr:
Scientists Assess Radioactivity in the Ocean from Japan Nuclear Power Facility


This is weird.... the study concludes:

Their study finds that the levels of radioactivity, while high, are not a direct threat to humans or marine life, but cautions that the effect of accumulated radionuclides in marine sediments is poorly known.


BUT:

Concentrations of cesium-137, a radioactive isotope with a 30-year half-life, at the plants' discharge points to the ocean peaked at more than 50 million times normal/previous levels.

Concentrations 18 miles offshore were higher than those measured in the ocean after the Chernobyl accident 25 years ago.


I don't see what's weird about this. The biggest danger from cesium-137 is inhalation and/or consumption, and in enough quantities to matter. And by matter I mean cause issues before something else gets you.

The 50 million number catches eyes, but the thing is cesium-137 is not natural. The only reason there is any cesium-137 in our environment at all is from nuclear testing (or Chernobyl if you live in the Europe/Russia area). The normal levels of of cesium-137 is practically non-existent, so ANY release of cesium-137 is going to be thousands or millions times more than background levels. It'd be like burying a gold coin in your backyard and claiming that the gold content of your backyard had gone up 50 million percent. While technically true, it doesn't really provide any useful information.

I think you meant to say something else, but Chernobyl is a land locked area, so ocean contamination was minimal. The most heavily affected areas were around the reactor (parts of Belarus, Russia, etc.).
feature in SW Pacific seems to come down some
Quoting Xyrus2000:


I don't see what's weird about this. The biggest danger from cesium-137 is inhalation and/or consumption, and in enough quantities to matter. And by matter I mean cause issues before something else gets you.

The 50 million number catches eyes, but the thing is cesium-137 is not natural. The only reason there is any cesium-137 in our environment at all is from nuclear testing (or Chernobyl if you live in the Europe/Russia area). The normal levels of of cesium-137 is practically non-existent, so ANY release of cesium-137 is going to be thousands or millions times more than background levels. It'd be like burying a gold coin in your backyard and claiming that the gold content of your backyard had gone up 50 million percent. While technically true, it doesn't really provide any useful information.

I think you meant to say something else, but Chernobyl is a land locked area, so ocean contamination was minimal. The most heavily affected areas were around the reactor (parts of Belarus, Russia, etc.).


That's a good point about the rarity of cesium-137 in the environment. In fact, how rare is it? Parts per trillion? Less than 1 part per trillion?

One thing though. Cesium is in the same group of elements as potassium and sodium which are both used biologically. I don't know how easily cesium is taken up by organisms but if organisms concentrate it in their tissue it could be more of a problem than low environmental levels would suggest.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
What happened to Grothar? He sent me a nice note Thanksgiving Day and we had some nice chats.
Grothar posted in my blog yesterday. I think it was yesterday. Sounds like maybe he will put up another blog or at least change his blog title.

Hope everything's going okay for you over there in the trenches, so to speak.

On topic, late this summer, a Cicada flew right smack into my face. That was exciting.
:)
Thanks barefoot. Weather here is chilly and dry. Even at dawn the humidity is only 30%. No frost. No fog or mist of any kind in the morning. A typical day here has been around 21 at dawn and 58 or so early afternoon. Most of this month has been like that. The air is very dry, crackly and lots of static electricity. Dewpoints have usually been below zero.

Usually there are light rains or snows here in the winter but there has been no precipitation this month which is a bit unusual. Normally storms from the far west, like the Mediterranean come this way in the winter. They are dry storms after crossing the Iranian deserts but usually we get some light rain or snow here wrung out by the mountains. But not been happening. In fact the pressure has not fallen below 30.00" this month.
I'm off. I'll check back in sometime. Hope everyone is well and that you have a great Christmas/Haunakah/Sol Invictus and New Year.
Sounds like Oklahoma winter weather. Not to worry, you'll get some rain. Been raining in OK and Texas. Drought has abated quite a bit on this side of Red River and some areas of Texas are looking better.

Must be daytime over there in the trenches. Thanks - Was nice of you to drop in and post even if you didn't find Grothar or some of your other friends out and about. Nighttime here, so I'll say good night. Take care.
How odd... it is 3am on December 10th, and I have been awakened by a... thunderstorm!
I just finished my report on TD12E:

Tropical Depression Twelve-E

October 12 - October 13

A tropical depression that formed during the second week of October quickly moved inland over southeastern Mexico, producing severe flooding and casualties across portions of that country as well as much of Central America.

The depression appears to have developed from the interaction of a tropical wave and a preexisting disturbance within the eastern Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The poorly-defined tropical wave moved off the coast of Africa late on September 30 and produced very little in the way of cloudiness or showers, possibly in response to the subsident airmass in which it was embedded. As the wave interacted with an upper-level trough over the central Atlantic, convection increased but remained disorganized. While moving across the central Caribbean Sea on October 7, the wave came under a region of enhanced diffluence associated with the mid-oceanic trough as well as an upper low over the eastern Gulf of Mexico that had likely branched off from this feature. This caused an abrupt increase in shower activity about 250 miles southeast of Santo Domingo in the Dominican Republic near 1800 UTC that day. Convection continued to burst over the following two days as the wave moved steadily westward, but strong southwesterly shear associated with the aforementioned trough effectively kept the convection confined to the east of the tropical wave axis. A distinct mid-level circulation formed late on October 8 to the south of Jamaica, likely in response to the persistent convection. The wave entered the eastern Pacific early on October 11, enhancing shower activity associated with a preexisting low pressure area that had formed within the ITCZ as early as October 6.

Convection within this feature became more concentrated near 1800 UTC October 11, and scatterometer data suggests that the low possessed a well-defined surface circulation during this time. The system became a tropical depression near 0600 UTC October 12, centered about 175 miles southeast of Salina Cruz, Mexico. The tropical cyclone moved inland to the east of Salina Cruz about twelve hours later, near 1800 UTC. The surface circulation dissipated six hours later.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
18:00 PM JST December 10 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 11.6N 115.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 11.2N 114.3E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
21:00 PM JST December 10 2011
===============================

SUBJECT: Tropical Depression In South China Sea

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1004 hPa) located at 11.5N 115.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly.

Dvorak intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 11.1N 114.0E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
Starting to look a little more subtropical to me...

Quoting SunriseSteeda:
How odd... it is 3am on December 10th, and I have been awakened by a... thunderstorm!

Well, I was hoping the cloudy skies would clear here in Sydney so I could see the Lunar Eclipse but they haven't so no eclipse for me :(
My birthday is in 2 days! :D I am having a b-day party

938 am AST Sat Dec 10 2011

The National Weather Service in San Juan has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Vega Alta municipality...
Vega Baja municipality...

* until 330 PM AST Saturday

* at 927 am AST... USGS river sensor on the Rio cibuco at Vega Baja
indicates that the river is slowly cresting. However... due to the
elevated river level... combined with the potential for additional
rainfall... the Flash Flood Warning has been upgraded to a Flood
Warning for the cibuco river and its tributaries. Additionally...
mudslides are possible in areas of steep terrain. Motorists should
exercise caution.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Do not drive your vehicle into areas where the water covers the
roadway. The water depth may be too great to allow your car to cross
safely. Move to higher ground.

A Flood Warning means flooding is occurring or is imminent. Most
flood related deaths occur in automobiles. Do not attempt to cross
water covered bridges... dips... or low water crossings. Never try to
cross a flowing stream... even a small one... on foot. To escape rising
water move up to higher ground.


Lat... Lon 1848 6641 1849 6635 1839 6632 1837 6637


Oms
Our beloved "WunderMoonies" didn't disappoint. For those too east or shrouded in clouds check out the WunderPhotos. Here is one from Turbguy. Great shot!

The moon slips into totality as the sun rises in the the Laramie Valley, as the moon sets over the Snowy Range.
8.5 inches of rain to my east...
Quoting Articuno:
My birthday is in 2 days! :D I am having a b-day party

Is a clown invited?
Quoting Skyepony:
Our beloved "WunderMoonies" didn't disappoint. For those too east or shrouded in clouds check out the WunderPhotos. Here is one from Turbguy. Great shot!

The moon slips into totality as the sun rises in the the Laramie Valley, as the moon sets over the Snowy Range.

I have a few photo's, will try to take more, my camera is charging.
Problems at another one of Japan's nuclear power plants..

Radioactive water leaked inside a nuclear power plant in southwestern Japan but did not escape into the environment, the government said Saturday. The leak Friday at Kyushu Electric Power Co.'s Genkai plant occurred as Japan attempts to stabilize a tsunami-hit nuclear plant on its northeastern coast where three reactor cores melted and large amounts of radiation were released into the air and ocean. Tetsuya Saito, spokesman for Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency, said 1.8 tons of radioactive water leaked from a pump in Genkai's No. 3 reactor, and the cause was still under investigation. The water was funneled into a storage area and posed no safety risk, he said. Kyushu Electric issued a statement Friday about a pump problem but did not mention the leak. Officials at the utility were not immediately available for comment Saturday. "There have been various problems at Genkai," Saito said. "But there is no safety problem as a result of what happened this time." He said it was up to Kyushu Electric to determine whether to announce the leak. Genkai Mayor Hideo Kishimoto complained that the utility has not been fully open with information. "The local government needs to know," Kyodo News agency quoted him as saying. "I have repeatedly demanded the utility change its ways."
The flooding in Venezuela is still looking pretty extreme this morning.

Newfoundland is having trouble getting power restored since more bad weather moved in.


Quoting AussieStorm:

I have a few photo's, will try to take more, my camera is charging.


Thanks! Been looking forward to these pics for a week:)
Quoting AussieStorm:

Is a clown invited?


I'll come. I love kids.

Quoting Skyepony:
The flooding in Venezuela is still looking pretty extreme this morning.

Newfoundland is having trouble getting power restored since more bad weather moved in.




Thanks! Been looking forward to these pics for a week:)

Venezuela, Columbia and Northern Brazil.
All under Heavy Manners from very heavy rains recently.
Hundreds of thousands are in shelters and several deaths.
Recent heavy rain in Trinidad has also caused flooding and landslides.
Thunder rumbling close by right now again. Everything is saturated....
Incredible weather in Northern UK too.
Hope it has not damaged any of those Scottish Distilleries..... :):))
Quoting pottery:
Incredible weather in Northern UK too.
Hope it has not damaged any of those Scottish Distilleries..... :):))

wind gust of 165mph recorded in the highlands. 60-90mph at lower levels. 958mb low, and going by the gfs and other models, they could have another 2 or 3 of these in the next week or two.
Quoting Skyepony:
The flooding in Venezuela is still looking pretty extreme this morning.

Newfoundland is having trouble getting power restored since more bad weather moved in.




Thanks! Been looking forward to these pics for a week:)


Here ya go, sone from my FB Album





Link
Yep, 'windstorm season' in full swing. Next one will be affecting England it seems, judging from the current synoptic charts, maybe a sub-950mb storm.

Guess we'll see closer to the time (supposedly around Mon/Tue).

And when it comes to storms and whisky - I think even if the four horsemen themselves came down, whisky would still be made. ;)

Congrats on the 2,000th blog, Doc.
Something interesting:

Research flights into storms

Not sure if this is something new for the UKMET to do, but reminds you of the HHs or the G-IVs.
Quoting Cotillion:
Yep, 'windstorm season' in full swing. Next one will be affecting England it seems, judging from the current synoptic charts, maybe a sub-950mb storm.

Guess we'll see closer to the time (supposedly around Mon/Tue).

And when it comes to storms and whisky - I think even if the four horsemen themselves came down, whisky would still be made. ;)

Congrats on the 2,000th blog, Doc.

As it should be.....
Quoting AussieStorm:

Is a clown invited?

Well...Class clown...
According to the GFS, the next windstorm may be the lowest pressured storm in the Atlantic of the entire year (matching and may even surpass Hurricane Ophelia)



940mb.
There are now 376 Giorni days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Saturday
Quoting Patrap:
There are now 376 Giorni days until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your Saturday


I thought a Giorni was an Italian pastry.
Quoting Grothar:


I thought a Giorni was an Italian pastry.

Greetings, Dear Fellow.
..."pastry", "day", "Marmalade", dem Norde's have 9 names for everything me tinks.

: )
Quoting pottery:

Greetings, Dear Fellow.


Hey, pott. Have you dried out yet from all the rain?
If you missed the Lunar Eclipse, watch it again here(in time-lapse).
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, pott. Have you dried out yet from all the rain?

Nop !
Sporadic heavy stuff interspersed with continual dribbles.
"Boggy" comes to mind....
Quoting Patrap:
..."pastry", "day", "Marmalade", dem Norde's have 9 names for everything me tinks.

: )


We like our pastries. I read back and saw a discussion about palm trees in Great Britain. I am surprised people didn't know about them. The Southern Coast of England has a lot of them. Guess not to many people have been to Bristol. I did see a few in Ireland. I tried planting one on the coast of Norway many years ago, but it ended up looking like a popsicle.
Quoting Cotillion:
According to the GFS, the next windstorm may be the lowest pressured storm in the Atlantic of the entire year (matching and may even surpass Hurricane Ophelia)



940mb.


Dayum! They just keep coming.
Quoting sunlinepr:
165 mph Winds recorded? Link

Scotland Shut Down By Icy 165mph Blasts

10:00pm UK, Thursday December 08, 2011
A fierce storm with winds of up to 165mph has battered northern parts of Britain, with people warned to stay indoors, schools forced to close and flights and rail links cancelled.

This type of systems should be name since they have a similar wind destruction as hurricanes....it will be more easy to classify and remember by the general public.
Quoting Grothar:


I thought a Giorni was an Italian pastry.


I thought it was a frozen pizza.
Lotsa Palms here..there's a Huge one on Magazine Street.

Here's the ones in Jackson Square. A Different Species.




A little "Seasonal Music".
Wishing everyone a Merry Christmas, in advance...

Very Interesting approach Dr. Master, since the correlation between insects and climate is so close, plus the effect it would have in the agriculture. It will also be extremely important to know the effects climate changes will bring to the flora,fauna, insects and microbiology; including new bacterias, virus that might develop under this new weather conditions and how it would affect humans.
I want to go to Hogwarts.
.."anyone can see the road that they walk on is paved in Gold"...

Fastball
Quoting Patrap:
Lotsa Palms here..there's a Huge one on Magazine Street.

Here's the ones in Jackson Square. A Different Species.






Been there!

"Patrick's got a Quick Hand,
He'll look around the room, he won't tell you his plan.
He's got a rolled cigarette, hanging out his mouth he's a cowboy kid.
Yeah, he found a six shooter gun.
In his dad's closet hidden with a box of fun things, and I don't even know what.
But he's coming for you, yeah he's coming for you."
Quoting presslord:


Been there!

Yeah. But did you "done that" ??
...He has "done dat" a whole lot more for Hundreds, if not thousands.


Looking back to 3 plus years ago, we all have a reflective time to remember and I was and still am grateful to Presslord for allowing us to Partner together and make a difference.

Its been a Wunderful experience.

Portlight Wunderblog





Quoting Patrap:
.."anyone can see the road that they walk on is paved in Gold"...

Fastball


..In a coffee house Sebastian sat.....
Chilly morning in Chicago and Northern Illinois. Local lakes froze over for the first time.

So when are temperatures really going to get cold in Florida? Any sub-45 degree temperatures in the forthcoming that anyone can see? Honestly, it has been way to hot this winter even for Florida. I was sweating outside, sweating in December!
Quoting Patrap:
...He has "done dat" a whole lot more for Hundreds, if not thousands.


Looking back to 3 plus years ago, we all have a reflective time to remember and I was and still am grateful to Presslord for allowing us to Partner together and make a difference.

Its been a Wunderful experience.

Portlight Wunderblog






True!
'Nuff Respect !
And I hope he has an idle 2012 with no need to respond to any disaster anywhere.
Quoting Patrap:
...He has "done dat" a whole lot more for Hundreds, if not thousands.


Looking back to 3 plus years ago, we all have a reflective time to remember and I was and still am grateful to Presslord for allowing us to Partner together and make a difference.

Its been a Wunderful experience.

Portlight Wunderblog







that dude in the back of the truck would make a fine lookin' woman
Quoting CybrTeddy:
So when are temperatures really going to get cold in Florida? Any sub-45 degree temperatures in the forthcoming that anyone can see? Honestly, it has been way to hot this winter even for Florida. I was sweating outside, sweating in December!


Not here in West Palm Beach :(

Quoting presslord:


that dude in the back of the truck would make a fine lookin' woman



He has.
Quoting Patrap:



He has.

Beauty is in the eye of the beholder, I guess.
And you need new specs.

heheheheh

Oh. Hi Presslord.
Didnt see you there, somehow.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I want to go to Hogwarts.



same here
LIVE Cam of all the people skiing on Sugar Mountain, North Carolina today. A lot of people up there today.

Link
About these Bugs!!
I spent a long time watching bugs and seeing how they adapt to their environment changing and one thing among many is that they are very industrious critters.
If they don't like where they are they move and they seem to like their version of comforts.
As climate change if it occurs will be quite fast from slow moving and constructing human point of view, it will not be a problem I think from a bugs point of view. They will either go uphill to maintain the same temperatures or move away from heat sources to more temperate areas and latitudes. Billions will die but billions will adapt and they will being relatively short lived evolve to resist drought and higher temperatures.
A lot of humans resist or despise change but bugs will just move on, in fact if the tropics become hostile to them even at a few miles a day they fly or march to safety.
After all they don't have to construct complex dwellings to live in and infrastructure like people do.
Western Pacific tropical depression:

Quoting presslord:


that dude in the back of the truck would make a fine lookin' woman



I AM REPULSED!


Yet oddly, excited!
Quoting presslord:


that dude in the back of the truck would make a fine lookin' woman
even in the Carolina,s....:o
Christmas Day:

Quoting SPLbeater:
there was a halo around the moon when i got home a few mins ago. Central NC here, anything special?


Saw it last night too, it was huge, but I'm in SE TX
Quoting pottery:
Nice lesson of the potential grave danger we all are in.

As Dr. Masters has so accurately pointed out several times here, 2011 will be known as the year of the greatest collective weather disasters in U.S. history.

This will be known as the year of the killer tornadoes and the floods, in rare combination. If you consider the advanced warning systems now in place, just imagine what the death toll would likely have been, without this technology.

On [February 3, 2011] I published a curious forecast of the coming year's weather in the U.S.

The "children" in the forecast below, represent the decedents of those who lived when the buffalo numbered in the millions. The buffalo that used to thunder across the Great Plains, tearing up the ground were an accurate mental model of hail and tornadoes. The floods which came along with this, completed the forecast.

If you pay close attention to the end of this visual forecast, it combines all the elements of what the "hooves" will come to represent.

To believe that earth is without voice, is a fool's gamble. The American Indians knew the earth had a name, and that she had a spirit too, but more importantly that she could fight back, and easily win.

[February 3, 2011] - "Watch, in the sky, the buffalo who once crossed the Great Plains have returned in spirit, to find refuge in the clouds and make their amends. So great in number, we ask, is this all those that ever lived?

They come to make mud, held tightly by the roots of grasses and trees for thousands of years. From before the time of the ice, until after, and in all four hooves, they kick it out so that the earth slides downhill.

Look, a herd full of leaders, with long flowing white hair, moving down into the clouds. They will remember their native friends, and spare them, but have no mercy upon the children of their foes."




Now that Christmas is approaching, it's looking likely that we may have a green Christmas this year. The last one was before I was born, although on Dec 25th 2006 we had 1cm of snow on the ground. Last year, amazingly we had accumulated 2 feet of snow on Christmas day.
Very well done video about the Bison (there is no such thing as an American Buffalo), but the claim that "2011 will be known as the year of the greatest collective weather disasters in U.S. history" is utterly false by any measure I can think of. The worst weather disaster of 2011 was the April tornado outbreak, which places it as #17 on the list of worst natural disasters in US history. Even if you add the Joplin tornado and the Mississippi flood deaths, that still only brings the death toll to about 530, far less than the death toll from single tornado outbreak of 1925. Nothing in recent history even comes close to the death and damage from the 2005 hurricanes. I realize you are concerned for the future of the earth, as we all are, but you do yourself and others no favors by over dramatizing easily obtainable facts. For your reference, the following is a list of the top 17 natural diasters in US history. Amounts, when given, are estimates of damage, with the year of referrence in parenthesis.

1. 1900 Cyclone 6,000-12,000 Galveston Hurricane of 1900 Texas Fatalities estimated - remains deadliest natural disaster in North American history.

2. 1928 Cyclone 3,000 $800,000,000 (2005) 1928 Okeechobee Hurricane Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, and Florida 4,078+ believed dead total. About 2,500 died in Florida and 500 in the U.S. possession of Puerto Rico.

3. 1893 Cyclone 2,000 1893 Cheniere Caminada Hurricane Louisiana - Fatalities estimated

4. 2005 Cyclone 1,836 $84,000,000,000 (2006) Hurricane Katrina Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama

5. 1980 Heat wave 1,700 1980 United States heat wave Central and southern states. Official death toll, may have been higher

6. 1893 Cyclone 1,000-2,000 1893 Sea Islands Hurricane Georgia, South Carolina Fatalities estimated

7.1995 Heat wave 739 Chicago Heat Wave of 1995 Chicago, Illinois

8. 1925 Tornado 695-727 $1,650,000,000 (2005) Tri-State Tornado Missouri, Illinois and Indiana (Kentucky, Tennessee) Lower number for single 3-state tornado; higher for 5-state outbreak

9. 1919 Cyclone 600 1919 Florida Keys Hurricane Florida, Texas

10. 1938 Cyclone 600 Great New England Hurricane

11. 1913 Flood 428 1913 (Ohio) Statewide Flood Southwest, Central, and Eastern Ohio

12. 1935 Cyclone 423 Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 Florida

13. 1888 Blizzard 400 Great Blizzard of 1888 Northeast Fatalities estimated

14. 1937 Flood 385 $5,000,000,000 Ohio River flood of 1937 Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Illinois

15. 1913 Flood 361 Great Dayton Flood Dayton, Ohio Flood was created by a series of three winter storms that hit the region in March, 1913

16. 1950 Blizzard 353 $66,700,000 (1950) Great Appalachian Storm of November 1950 Eastern US States

17. 2011 Tornado 346 ~$10,000,000,000 (2011) April 25–28, 2011 tornado outbreak Alabama, Tennessee, Mississippi, Georgia, Arkansas and Virginia 336 tornadoes
Quoting presslord:


that dude in the back of the truck would make a fine lookin' woman


LOL!
sar2401~ Guessing you missed the blog the other day about this being the costliest year for US weather disasters? I think that's what being referred to, not the death toll. What a list there you posted..
Quoting sar2401:
Very well done video about the Bison (there is no such thing as an American Buffalo), but the claim that "2011 will be known as the year of the greatest collective weather disasters in U.S. history" is utterly false by any measure I can think of. The worst weather disaster of 2011 was the April tornado outbreak, which places it as #17 on the list of worst natural disasters in US history. Even if you add the Joplin tornado and the Mississippi flood deaths, that still only brings the death toll to about 530, far less than the death toll from single tornado outbreak of 1925. Nothing in recent history even comes close to the death and damage from the 2005 hurricanes. I realize you are concerned for the future of the earth, as we all are, but you do yourself and others no favors by over dramatizing easily obtainable facts. For your reference, the following is a list of the top 17 natural diasters in US history. Amounts, when given, are estimates of damage, with the year of referrence in parenthesis.




I see nothing false about the statement "2011 will be known as the year of the greatest collective weather disasters in U.S. history." On its own, all the statement literally means is that 2011 will be know as the year of the most collective weather disasters in US history... a valid statement. I believe that you may be evaluating it based on the death tolls, in which case yes, other years have seen worse. But OracleDeAtlantis did point that without "advanced warning systems now in place, just imagine what the death toll would likely have been, without this technology."

I personally don't know enough about the total price tags off hand, but even if the worst events of this year were only ranked in the teens/20s when it comes to the most costly, if you have enough events they will start to add up... whether or not they come close to years like 2004/2005 i cant say, but 3billion here, 4 billion there does add up.

But, again, i believe the original statement is a reference to the sheer quantity($billion events), more so than death or destruction. And in the long run, i believe that this greater frequency that, geographically speaking, doesn't discriminate via location/region, is far more significant than a single anomaly, ie the $100billion from katrina.
Here is a scary list of disasters based on death toll...Horrific is an absolute understatement..Link
Quoting Skyepony:
sar2401~ Guessing you missed the blog the other day about this being the costliest year for US weather disasters? I think that's what being referred to, not the death toll. What a list there you posted..


Skye, no, I did not miss that blog. As stated in the blog, 2011 may be the FOURTH costliest year for weather disasters in US history, not the worst. As Dr. Masters stated, ranking weather disasters by cost is fraught with uncertainty, since how we measure dollar loss, and what year we use for reference, can cause huge changes in totals. Weather disasters by deaths, while not perfect, is more precise than by cost, since deaths are deaths, no matter what year they occurred. Even more confusingly, the chart highlights the number of "billion dollar" disasters, while the important part, total cost of the cumulative diasters, is overlaid with a line graph. If you look at the chart again, you'll see that 2005 is still, by far, the largest cumulative cost for weather disasters in modern history, with 2011 coming in at about 25% of the cumulative costs of 2005. Thus, I stand by my statements, unless one simply wants to use numbers of events, without considering costs or deaths, as a maximum data point.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
So when are temperatures really going to get cold in Florida? Any sub-45 degree temperatures in the forthcoming that anyone can see? Honestly, it has been way to hot this winter even for Florida. I was sweating outside, sweating in December!


We must wait for a pattern change, that is the reverse of the current pattern, we will need general troughing in the east and general ridging in the west.

We have been in the reverse pattern for a while, so maybe a colder pattern will arrive for Florida just in time for Christmas, it could happen!

We shall see, I know though at some point its gotta give. It would be nice if it gives around Christmas, for us Southeastern folks :)
Models have been quite accurate lately, and Texas is looking different on satellite these days..Almost the only game in town,,,
Quoting Jedkins01:


We must wait for a pattern change, that is the reverse of the current pattern, we will need general troughing in the east and general ridging in the west.

We have been in the reverse pattern for a while, so maybe a colder pattern will arrive for Florida just in time for Christmas, it could happen!

We shall see, I know though at some point its gotta give. It would be nice if it gives around Christmas, for us Southeastern folks :)

Does it? We've had Negative NAO for the past several years, which usually promotes cold air and snow across the Eastern USA. However, this year, we're in a moderate to strong Positive NAO, so us in the East/Southeast may not get the cold air and snow we're hoping for.
Conference in overtime on future of climate talks
Published: Saturday, December 10, 2011, 3:00 PM


A package of documents was submitted to a marathon U.N. climate conference Saturday that would set a new course for the global fight against climate change for more than a decade to come. South Africa's foreign minister and chairman of the 194-party conference, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, told delegates that failure to agree after 16 days of work would be an unsustainable setback for international efforts to control greenhouse gases.

"This multilateral system remains fragile and will not survive another shock," she told a full meeting of the conference, which had been delayed more than 24 hours while ministers and senior negotiators labored over words and nuances.

Nkoana-Mashabane said the package of four documents, which were being printed as she spoke, were an imperfect compromise, but they reflected years of negotiations on issues that had plagued the U.N. climate efforts.

The 100-plus pages would give new life to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, whose carbon emissions targets expire next year and apply only to industrial countries. A separate document calls on major emitting nations like China and India, excluded under Kyoto, to accept legally binding emissions targets in the future.
After her brief address, Nkoana-Mashabane adjourned the session. The documents were to be discussed and put up for approval later Saturday. The convention operates by consensus, and the package will not be put up for a vote.

Arthur Max of The Associated Press wrote this report.
Quoting HurrikanEB:


I see nothing false about the statement "2011 will be known as the year of the greatest collective weather disasters in U.S. history." On its own, all the statement literally means is that 2011 will be know as the year of the most collective weather disasters in US history... a valid statement. I believe that you may be evaluating it based on the death tolls, in which case yes, other years have seen worse. But OracleDeAtlantis did point that without "advanced warning systems now in place, just imagine what the death toll would likely have been, without this technology."

I personally don't know enough about the total price tags off hand, but even if the worst events of this year were only ranked in the teens/20s when it comes to the most costly, if you have enough events they will start to add up... whether or not they come close to years like 2004/2005 i cant say, but 3billion here, 4 billion there does add up.

But, again, i believe the original statement is a reference to the sheer quantity($billion events), more so than death or destruction. And in the long run, i believe that this greater frequency that, geographically speaking, doesn't discriminate via location/region, is far more significant than a single anomaly, ie the $100billion from katrina.


Part of my response has already been posted to Skye, but ranking weather disasters by simply the total number of supposed one billion dollar occurences is open to a lot of interpretation, depending one how one defines a weather disaster and calculates cost. For example, many more people now have insurance to cover losses from weather-related disasters, some because they are required to by mortgage holders or FEMA. This inflates the cost of each incident. Actually, before the inception of FEMA, only insured costs were calculated with any accuracy. Other damage was estimated by various public agencies, and many of the damage estimates are suspect at best. FEMA estimates all damages for Federal declared disasters (which a billion dollar disaster will always be a Federally declared disaster), and their estimates are just as suspect, since they are under a lot of political pressure to estimate on the high side of actual damage. During my career in law enforcement and emergency management, I had the misfortune of having to haul around a lot of these FEMA damage assessment teams, and their methods were haphazard at best. They also had certain "goals" to meet if they didn't want a bunch of grief from local officials or the Congressperson that represented the district. As you can see, I have a certain amount of skepticism about damage asessments and how we arrive at damage totals.
I wish...

Quoting Patrap:
Conference in overtime on future of climate talks
Published: Saturday, December 10, 2011, 3:00 PM


A package of documents was submitted to a marathon U.N. climate conference Saturday that would set a new course for the global fight against climate change for more than a decade to come. South Africa's foreign minister and chairman of the 194-party conference, Maite Nkoana-Mashabane, told delegates that failure to agree after 16 days of work would be an unsustainable setback for international efforts to control greenhouse gases.

"This multilateral system remains fragile and will not survive another shock," she told a full meeting of the conference, which had been delayed more than 24 hours while ministers and senior negotiators labored over words and nuances.

Nkoana-Mashabane said the package of four documents, which were being printed as she spoke, were an imperfect compromise, but they reflected years of negotiations on issues that had plagued the U.N. climate efforts.

The 100-plus pages would give new life to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, whose carbon emissions targets expire next year and apply only to industrial countries. A separate document calls on major emitting nations like China and India, excluded under Kyoto, to accept legally binding emissions targets in the future.
After her brief address, Nkoana-Mashabane adjourned the session. The documents were to be discussed and put up for approval later Saturday. The convention operates by consensus, and the package will not be put up for a vote.

Arthur Max of The Associated Press wrote this report.


Patrap,
Rather reminds me of our Congressional "Supercommittee" that took almost three months to produce absolutely nothing. I'm convinced that all these types of treaties will always fail if there is not a giant train wreck already happening. The emerging countries will do everything they can to evade any climatic restrictions that raise their costs of production. The developed world will do a little better, but always point to the fact that the treaties, or whatever they will be called, are not equally enforced, therefore they can fudge a little too. Only two things make treaties work - a looming disaster or enforcement by an army big enough to make you do what you promised to do. Neither one are on the horizon, so this is merely an exercise in futility. We won't do anything much unless and until it's clear global climate change isn't really happening, at which point some people will get lynched, or it's so bad we all agree we need to do something before it's too late - assuming it's not already too late. :(
143. flsky
Quoting pottery:


Thanks, Pott. This was wonderful, yet bittersweet to watch. Forwarded it to my multitudes (such as they are, haha).
Quoting HuracanTaino:
This type of systems should be name since they have a similar wind destruction as hurricanes....it will be more easy to classify and remember by the general public.


It was actually named Friedhelm by the met office in Berlin.

PS: The next one named Gnter also looks quite ominous, already down to 960 mb coming off the East coast, yikes!
142. sar2401

I understand and concur.
Quoting taistelutipu:


It was actually named Friedhelm by the met office in Berlin.

PS: The next one named G�nter also looks quite ominous, already down to 960 mb coming off the East coast, yikes!


God jul, tai!
Global Warming and bugs. I have to laugh.....
God Jul, Grothar. Hur mår du? Jag ser att det är varmt i Florida. Jag hoppas att vi har inte snö innan jag flyger hem på fredag.


How do we know the Earth's climate is warming?

Thousands of land and ocean temperature measurements are recorded each day around the globe. This includes measurements from climate reference stations, weather stations, ships, buoys and autonomous gliders in the oceans.

These surface measurements are also supplemented with satellite measurements. These measurements are processed, examined for random and systematic errors, and then finally combined to produce a time series of global average temperature change.

A number of agencies around the world have produced datasets of global-scale changes in surface temperature using different techniques to process the data and remove measurement errors that could lead to false interpretations of temperature trends.

The warming trend that is apparent in all of the independent methods of calculating global temperature change is also confirmed by other independent observations, such as the melting of mountain glaciers on every continent, reductions in the extent of snow cover, earlier blooming of plants in spring, a shorter ice season on lakes and rivers, ocean heat content, reduced arctic sea ice, and rising sea levels."


More Here:
Quoting taistelutipu:
God Jul, Grothar. Hur mår du? Jag ser att det är varmt i Florida. Jag hoppas att vi har inte snö innan jag flyger hem på fredag.


Beautiful weather in Florida. I see your little part of the world has been getting hammered. (We have to be careful now. Patrap and others are using "Google Translator" and writing to me in Norwegian. LOL Hope you have a good Holiday and your weather gets better.
Datz wun ard langwedge to Master Grothar.

What da ell iz a "airman hem" anyway? : )

O, bout 2-3 Ib's I reckon..

Quoting hydrus:
Models have been quite accurate lately, and Texas is looking different on satellite these days..Almost the only game in town,,,
No rain today as of 630 pm but have received quite a bit last 2 months, lake levels have not gone up any yet but if these rains continue Lakes should start going up, they are 70 percent empty right now.
Quoting mistymountainhop:
Chilly morning in Chicago and Northern Illinois. Local lakes froze over for the first time.



Back in the 40s next week with lows in the upper 20s (at least here in Southern Wisconsin). And actually these last three days have been the first time this winter that the nightly low has dipped below 20 which is really late. Unfortunately that has meant that I've had to refrain from asking people if it's 'cold enough for them yet' :(
sar~ I see your point, overall it wasn't costliest. The number of Billion dollar events is telling too though. 2005 was weighted overall by Katrina taking down levees & wiping some towns. Regardless, having this many billion dollar disasters means more people over all were affected. The shear coverage of the country in terms of extreme weather this year was noteworthy & maybe more remembered as a whole since more people's lives were directly affected by some sort of weather disaster this year.
I got this extract from the BBC posted by them at 00.33 GMT today 11 Dec:-

"Other important countries including the US are prepared to negotiate an emission-curbing "legal instrument" by 2015, taking effect by 2020."

India is holding out to start after 2020, and the weaker "legal outcome".

If anybody is interested in reading the full article, here's the link to copy and paste:-
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-161 24670

This line below might be the slogan for the anti industrialists for the foreseeable future, {also taken from the same article.}:-

"While they develop, we die; and why should we accept this?"



hey guys. aint been on today, workin from 8-12 splitting firewood
BREAKING NEWS:
A 6.7 earthquake has occured in Mexico.
http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsw w/Quakes/usc000753u.php#maps

NOTE: This earthquake has just occurred, so expect more info later.

Magnitude 6.7 - GUERRERO, MEXICO
2011 December 11 01:47:26 UTC


Version en Espanol
Details
Summary
Maps
Scientific & Technical
Tsunami
Earthquake Details

This event has been reviewed by a seismologist.
Magnitude
6.7
Date-Time
Sunday, December 11, 2011 at 01:47:26 UTC
Saturday, December 10, 2011 at 07:47:26 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
18.038N, 99.796W
Depth
64.9 km (40.3 miles)
Region
GUERRERO, MEXICO
Distances
42 km (26 miles) SW of Iguala, Guerrero, Mexico
56 km (34 miles) ESE of Arcelia, Guerrero, Mexico
62 km (38 miles) NNW of Chilpancingo, Guerrero, Mexico
166 km (103 miles) SSW of MEXICO CITY, D.F., Mexico
Location Uncertainty
horizontal /- 14.5 km (9.0 miles); depth /- 9.8 km (6.1 miles)
Parameters
NST=488, Nph=488, Dmin=140.3 km, Rmss=0.78 sec, Gp= 47,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=8
Source
Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc000753u

WTPN21 PGTW 100900
MSGID/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI /JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4N 116.6E TO 8.8N 112.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 100830Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 116.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
Models develop some Tropical? system Mid Atl. that turns N, then another Low develops in the same area...

MEXICO CITY (AP) — A 6.7-magnitude earthquake struck Mexico's western Guerrero state Saturday night, shaking buildings and causing some panic just over 100 miles away in the nation's capital. There were no immediate reports of damage or injuries.

The U.S. Geological Service estimated the quake's magnitude at 6.7, after an initial reading of 6.8. It said the quake was centered about 26 miles (42 kilometers) southwest of Iguala in Guerrero. That is 103 miles (166 kilometers) south-southwest of Mexico City.

High-rises swayed in the center of Mexico City, and shoppers were temporarily herded out of some shopping centers.

People in one part of the capital's upscale Condesa neighborhood ran out of their houses and gathered in the streets, hugging each other while some shook and began to cry.

On one street, a group of women joined hands in a circle, closed their eyes and began to pray.

"Please God, help us and let everything be OK," said one. "It's OK. It's OK. Everything is OK."
976mb low heading for europe, wont be AS bad. hopefully. winds arent >50kts on south side 110100Z-
Strong Earthquake Strikes Mexico
by Sean Breslin, weather.com


Updated: Saturday, Dec. 10, 2011 at 9:30 p.m. E/T

On Saturday night, a 6.7-magnitude earthquake hit Guerrero, Mexico at a depth of about 40 miles. The earthquake was reported at 7:47 p.m. local time (8:47 p.m. Eastern), and the epicenter is 82 miles from Acapulco, Mexico, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Per the Associated Press, USGS Geophysist Shengzao Chen said this is a very active region. The quake is within "normal activity" for this region -- it was very deep but strong -- and there are no initial reports of damage or casualties.

The quake shook buildings in Mexico City, and residents of the town were seen in photos taking to the streets when the buildings began shaking.

We will keep you posted as more details come in.
And now for... Find the WPac Tropical Depression!!!!! Pick your blob....

Quoting WxGeekVA:
And now for... Find the WPac Tropical Depression!!!!! Pick your blob....


The area of low pressure that is extremely disorganized and virtually convectionless.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The area of low pressure that is extremely disorganized and virtually convectionless.


AND JTWC said only 15-20 knot windspeeds. lol
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The area of low pressure that is extremely disorganized and virtually convectionless.


I cant find an LLC....
Quoting WxGeekVA:
And now for... Find the WPac Tropical Depression!!!!! Pick your blob....




er,, dis un?

WP942011 - INVEST



Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery/loop

..click image for Loop dee Loop

this is old data, but havnt seen nothin new from jtwc. 4 AM this mornin the LLCC SUPPOSEDLY is located near 11.8N 116.1E. Im guessing that lil swirl round 9.4N 115.5E is it. not much to see there...
Some "fill in" with respect to my earlier request for more information on the blog relevant bug model specifics related to this, well, blog, no ?;)

Storm photo's from a storm that just passed over Sydney.







Quoting Ossqss:
Some "fill in" with respect to my earlier request for more information on the blog relevant bug model specifics related to this, well, blog, no ?;)



This is nothing compared to the twig of 93.
Quoting AtHomeInTX:

Rain has been south and west of me all, does not seem to be moving at all, several reports of 1 to 2 inches in South Texas, good for them
Quoting SPLbeater:
hey guys. aint been on today, workin from 8-12 splitting firewood
Better than atoms. Warms you twice.
Good morning everyone.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Rain has been south and west of me all, does not seem to be moving at all, several reports of 1 to 2 inches in South Texas, good for them


Awe. I was hoping it might get to your area. Sure not moving much. But I'm glad for them too. :)
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Good morning everyone.



good AM too you sir how are you
I am good Taz and it's good to see you. I remember going over the GFS model runs with you during hurricane season :)
Weather about normal here in Huntsville, AL. I suppose nothing that exciting.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
I am good Taz and it's good to see you. I remember going over the GFS model runs with you during hurricane season :)



yup
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Good morning everyone.


Hi, Brian. How's the weather there?
Very nice pics of that roll cloud, Aussiestorm. You guys get some good clouds down there.

Skye, I guess my point is that 2005 appears to be seriously understated in terms of impact to the US. 14 tropical storms hit the continental US, with Katrina happening to be the worst. Almost every state from Texas through Florida and up the East Coast was affected by one or more of these storms. This doesn't even count the usual tornados, heat waves, and blizzards that occur every year. 2011 was certainly a bad year for those of us in the South, Midwest, and parts of the Northeast, but it's hard for me to believe that the worst cumulative year for weather disasters in the US by any measure other than total deaths, still wasn't 2005.
Quoting goodsign:
Weather about normal here in Huntsville, AL. I suppose nothing that exciting.


Basically normal down here by Montgomery too, although it feels colder after our warm November. Looks like we have a small chance for rain Sunday night and Monday but then nothing else until the end of the week. It's down to 35 here now, so the secondary cold front has gone through.
Quoting Grothar:


Hi, Brian. How's the weather there?


It is cool outside. Rising through the 40s and dusty outside. Or a thick haze, the wind doesn't seem to be strong enough to pick up dust but it is murky outside. It's like a dust storm came from someplace else and is settling out here.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


It is cool outside. Rising through the 40s and dusty outside. Or a thick haze, the wind doesn't seem to be strong enough to pick up dust but it is murky outside. It's like a dust storm came from someplace else and is settling out here.


Sounds like New Jersey. :)
Or Mordor. Master Samwise peering through the murk.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Does it? We've had Negative NAO for the past several years, which usually promotes cold air and snow across the Eastern USA. However, this year, we're in a moderate to strong Positive NAO, so us in the East/Southeast may not get the cold air and snow we're hoping for.


Well the QBO has recently tanked according to Steve D. That and the MJO is expected to plunge into the COD. This should hopefully force the Polar Stratosphere to warm-up and correspond to a -AO/NAO +PNA/-EPO by late December even as early as The Winter Solstice(though to be fair models are split on weather to reemerge an MJO-pulse in phase 4 or keep it dead).
Something shook New Jersey on Saturday, but it wasn't an earthquake

Posted: Saturday, December 10, 2011 12:30 pm | Updated: 7:20 pm, Sat Dec 10, 2011.

By DAN GOOD Staff Writer |

Local residents felt a slight tremor at about 10 a.m. Saturday. Residents in Newark, Bergen County and Sussex County felt it, too — something that made houses shake and water ripple.
It wasn’t an earthquake.
But what was it?U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist Paul Caruso isn’t sure.

Link


Dozens in N.J. report feeling earthquake, but U.S. Geological Survey detects none

Link
If you believe the earth has a voice, then where better to speak of her sickness, than from her belly?

Three days before the fifth largest earthquake in recorded history struck the island of Japan, there was a foreshock measuring 7.3>>> in magnitude. This foreshock went unrecognized, however, until after the main shock occurred. Only then did scientists studying this earthquake, realize what they had observed.

On March 8, 2011 immediately following this precursor event, a curious picture denoting it was published. The translated words suggest a future event linked to the precursor, and in only three days the Latin written on this USGS picture below, will happen, and arguably even appear similar visually to what was about to occur. It reads ...

Venir = first person singular "To come"

Incipio = present active "I begin"

Divello = present active "I tear apart"

The words are oddly stacked and interlocked. They overlay what appear to be three sevens, made to look like exclamation marks. This fact is underlined, literally by the history of the exclamation mark, which is derived from the Latin word "io," and which are the only two overlapping letters in the text.

This mark is used at the end of a sentence, to add emphasis or to indicate high volume of a speaker, and the only "person" present in this picture, is the earth.

The exclamation mark is also known in printers jargon as the Bang!







I just finished the report on Kenneth. With that, other than a few cosmetic adjustments, the hurricane season summary blog I've been working on since October is finally complete! I'll release it to you guys tomorrow.

Hurricane Kenneth

November 19 - November 25

Kenneth was a rare late-season major hurricane, and the latest forming major hurricane in the satellite era.

a. Storm history

Kenneth does not appear to have been spawned by a tropical wave. Instead, a perturbation within the ITCZ appears to have been the catalyst. A large area of convection was noted near the west coast of Africa on November 1, but it cannot be definitively traced back to a tropical wave. The extent and coverage of this activity soon diminished, and the vigor of the convection associated with this feature was largely indistinguishable from the rest of the ITCZ, which was lying at or below 10N latitude for much of the first week of November. Convection increased in a position about 850 miles southeast of the Windward Islands around 1200 UTC November 8. Although a distinct system was now evident, convection soon diminished as it moved westward into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Early on November 13, the system merged with a preexisting area of cloudiness and thunderstorms that had manifest over the extreme southwest Caribbean Sea. An abrupt increase in convection over that portion of the Atlantic was the result.

Although the strongest of this activity was confined just offshore coastal areas of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, analysis of both satellite imagery and ASCAT data suggest that the most concentrated area of lower- to middle-tropospheric turning was centered just north of Panama. Early on November 16, the gyre entered the eastern Pacific and moved quickly westward to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Convection began to increase several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehauntepec on November 17, and a broad area of low pressure is estimated to have formed late that day; analysis of scatterometer data indicates that the low possessed a fairly well-defined surface circulation during this time, but actual winds were relatively light. The system soon showed signs of organization, with a developing outflow channel to the west in the upper levels. In addition, loose and shallow bands developed within the precipitation shield, particularly over the western semicircle.

The low continued to organize as it moved generally westward, and it became a tropical depression near 1800 UTC November 19 while centered about 480 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. The depression became a tropical storm about 24 hours while located about 535 miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Under a favorable upper-level environment characterized by a warm ridge aloft, Kenneth rapidly intensified, attaining hurricane status near 1200 UTC November 21, when satellite images showed a ragged eye within the confines of a well-defined central dense overcast. At this time, Kenneth was located approximately 720 miles east-southeast of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Kenneth continued to rapidly deepen, becoming a major hurricane near 0000 UTC November 22. The hurricane continued to deepen, and reached its peak intensity of 125 kt near 1500 UTC that day, centered about 750 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

Almost as quickly as it strengthened, Kenneth fell apart; analysis of high cloud motion vectors on satellite imagery suggests that westerly shear began to encroach on the tropical cyclone early on November 23. That, combined with cooling sea surface temperatures along the trajectory of the hurricane, appear to have been responsible for the rapid weakening that was observed after peak intensity. Kenneth dropped below major hurricane strength around 0600 UTC November 23, with the associated cloud pattern quite ragged at that time. Kenneth weakened to a tropical storm around 1800 UTC that day. Under the influence of SSTs well below 26C, Kenneth continued to weaken, becoming a tropical depression near 0600 UTC November 25. Devoid of convection, the shallow vortex became a remnant low six hours later, while centered about 1250 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
Quoting Skyepony:
sar~ I see your point, overall it wasn't costliest. The number of Billion dollar events is telling too though. 2005 was weighted overall by Katrina taking down levees & wiping some towns. Regardless, having this many billion dollar disasters means more people over all were affected. The shear coverage of the country in terms of extreme weather this year was noteworthy & maybe more remembered as a whole since more people's lives were directly affected by some sort of weather disaster this year.

The reason Katrina took the limelight was most of the people who live in New Orleans were totally dependent on government, even today they are still a train wreck as far as recovery is concerned.
The main obstacle for these poor folks is our own Federal government.
Example: 2006 Nashville Tn. Huge F3 tornado devastated the Nashville area.
2010 Nashville Tn. Large flood did billions of dollars of damage, damage is second to Katrina at that time.
Total damage of the 2011 flooding in the East coast is not available at this time but it's close to Katrina, and Nashville if not succeeded those figures.
Natural disasters cost billions of dollars to rebuild.
Look for homeowners insurance rates to climb in America in the next year to pay for these huge losses.
Respectfully: It's not so much dependence on government....if you'll drill a little deeper...you can see that it's really an issue of poverty....disaster is always hardest on the poor....government dependence is simply one of many symptoms...
Here's a nice image of the eclipse as seen from the Tokyo Tower on December 10.

Link to article
Quoting Presslord:
Respectfully: It's not so much dependence on government....if you'll drill a little deeper...you can see that it's really an issue of poverty....disaster is always hardest on the poor....government dependence is simply one of many symptoms...


Our government robs initiative and incentive from poor people by making them too comfortable in their poverty. We do this in the form of subsidized housing, food-stamps and free cell-phones to name a few.There are plenty of people who truly need the benefits, others, and they are legion, just game the system. If you rob Peter to pay Paul, you'll get Paul's vote every time
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting Presslord:
Respectfully: It's not so much dependence on government....if you'll drill a little deeper...you can see that it's really an issue of poverty....disaster is always hardest on the poor....government dependence is simply one of many symptoms...


Our government robs initiative and incentive from poor people by making them too comfortable in their poverty. We do this in the form of subsidized housing, food-stamps and free cell-phones to name a few.There are plenty of people who truly need the benefits, others, and they are legion, just game the system. If you rob Peter to pay Paul, you'll get Paul's vote every time


Please, no politics or religion. We all know where that usually ends up....
OracleDeAtlantis:
There's something in your post that makes IE8 stop working when I try to quote it. I have no idea where your picture came from. It certainly, in the form you posted it, wasn't from the USGS. Where exactly did you get it it, and what exactly does it mean? I'm totally baffled at this point.

BTW, geologists have no ability distinguish an earthquake as being a foreshock of a larger quake until the larger quake occurs. Japan has 5-6 magnitude earthquakes on a regular basis, and the vast majority are not followed by larger earthquakes. This is an area of earth science they know almost nothing about, hence the inability of using one earthquake to predict the occurance of another.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Something shook New Jersey on Saturday, but it wasn't an earthquake

Posted: Saturday, December 10, 2011 12:30 pm | Updated: 7:20 pm, Sat Dec 10, 2011.

By DAN GOOD Staff Writer |

Local residents felt a slight tremor at about 10 a.m. Saturday. Residents in Newark, Bergen County and Sussex County felt it, too %u2014 something that made houses shake and water ripple.
It wasn%u2019t an earthquake.
But what was it?U.S. Geological Survey geophysicist Paul Caruso isn%u2019t sure.

Link


Dozens in N.J. report feeling earthquake, but U.S. Geological Survey detects none

Link


Very interesting. I can't explain it either, but I wonder, after reading the comments after the article, if this isn't a case of "Facebook Panic". One person feels something, posts it on Facebook, and then dozens join in within minutes. It gets to the point where people who really didn't feel anything think there's something wrong with them since "everyone" else did.

We get this constantly down here when we have tornado weather. One person sees a limb blow down or a funny looking roll cloud and posts "There's a tornado at ...such and such a place". Soon, other people join in, and every garbage can blowing down the road is major damage. They drive us crazy on Skywarn as Birmingham is reading the same things and wants confirmation, and none of our trained spotters see anything. There's always been a tendency for humans to engage in group panics, but things like Facebook make it possible to happen in seconds instead of days. These kind of things also tend to increase in time of political or economic tensions. For an interesting perspective on how it happened in the days before Facebook, do a Google search for "Seattle Windshield Pitting Epidemic".
Quoting sar2401:


Very interesting. I can't explain it either, but I wonder, after reading the comments after the article, if this isn't a case of "Facebook Panic". One person feels something, posts it on Facebook, and then dozens join in within minutes. It gets to the point where people who really didn't feel anything think there's something wrong with them since "everyone" else did.

We get this constantly down here when we have tornado weather. One person sees a limb blow down or a funny looking roll cloud and posts "There's a tornado at ...such and such a place". Soon, other people join in, and every garbage can blowing down the road is major damage. They drive us crazy on Skywarn as Birmingham is reading the same things and wants confirmation, and none of our trained spotters see anything. There's always been a tendency for humans to engage in group panics, but things like Facebook make it possible to happen in seconds instead of days. These kind of things also tend to increase in time of political or economic tensions. For an interesting perspective on how it happened in the days before Facebook, do a Google search for "Seattle Windshield Pitting Epidemic".


It was offshore drilling related.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Please, no politics or religion. We all know where that usually ends up....
Exactly everything ends up with the two polarize visions in the U.S. Conservatives vs. Liberals or progressives views...just find tolerance and respect of others. Nobody has the complete truth, just be objective, fair, moderate, and balance...
Long-range GFS models show possible end to Texas drought.

An' I'm still shocked and upset over Bordonaro's passing - was only two years ago when he helped me understand the Arctic blasts and oscillations.
According to the American University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), locusts and mountain pine beetles won't be the only thing North Americans will have to worry about. According to a map, much of the American Midwest will be covered in perpetual drought by the 2060's, quite possibly desert as the Nebraska Sand Hills appear to be the main source of desertification, as Palmer Index drought values fall below -15: the Sand Hills are sand dunes about 10 metres high by 100 metres wide and about 1 km across, and are grass-stabilized but may have been active dunes during the Medieval Warm Period. During the Dust Bowl in Texas, Palmer Index values rarely fell below -3, and yet sand storms and crop failures were the norm.



3 deaths are now blamed on last night's quake in mexico.
Quoting OracleDeAtlantis:





I am confused...
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
According to the American University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), locusts and mountain pine beetles won't be the only thing North Americans will have to worry about. According to a map, much of the American Midwest will be covered in perpetual drought by the 2060's, quite possibly desert as the Nebraska Sand Hills appear to be the main source of desertification, as Palmer Index drought values fall below -15: the Sand Hills are sand dunes about 10 metres high by 100 metres wide and about 1 km across, and are grass-stabilized but may have been active dunes during the Medieval Warm Period. During the Dust Bowl in Texas, Palmer Index values rarely fell below -3, and yet sand storms and crop failures were the norm.





Well, I'd have to live to be over a 100 to say I told you so in 2060, so I'll say it now. No way will that happen. LMAO!
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Long-range GFS models show possible end to Texas drought.

An' I'm still shocked and upset over Bordonaro's passing - was only two years ago when he helped me understand the Arctic blasts and oscillations.
NOAA is not showing much for Texas..I was shocked and heart broken about Bordonaro..I think He was in his late 40,s..Way to soon ..I pray for his family.
So sad, So sudden..

We will miss his wit and posts.

Bordonaro
16 July 1961 - December 2011


His arrangements are posted in my Blog..

..comment # 150


Quoting ILwthrfan:


It was offshore drilling related.


My understanding is that there is currently no offshore exploration in that area. Even if it was explosive seismic exploration, the blasts should have been picked up by seismographs. Some kind of sonic boom seems to make the most sense to me, given the number of military installations in the area.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
According to the American University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), locusts and mountain pine beetles won't be the only thing North Americans will have to worry about. According to a map, much of the American Midwest will be covered in perpetual drought by the 2060's, quite possibly desert as the Nebraska Sand Hills appear to be the main source of desertification, as Palmer Index drought values fall below -15: the Sand Hills are sand dunes about 10 metres high by 100 metres wide and about 1 km across, and are grass-stabilized but may have been active dunes during the Medieval Warm Period. During the Dust Bowl in Texas, Palmer Index values rarely fell below -3, and yet sand storms and crop failures were the norm.





A drop in the Palmer Index to a never before seen -15 in less than 50 years? I would really have to see the data to understand how such a thing could be possible.
Quoting sar2401:


A drop in the Palmer Index to a never before seen -15 in less than 50 years? I would really have to see the data to understand how such a thing could be possible.


A 1C rise in global temperatures would turn the sandhills into a scrub desert and the dunes were active during the MWP (see image). Notice also that the Sahara Desert expands toward England.
Quoting hydrus:
NOAA is not showing much for Texas..I was shocked and heart broken about Bordonaro..I think He was in his late 40,s..Way to soon ..I pray for his family.



thats the 3 mos outlook

here the 6-10 day out look wish has rainfall well above norml





and here is the 8 too 14 day out look wish all show rain fall well above norml for TX


208. AstroHurricane001
Thank you for posting this image at the top.
If values are to drop to -15 in the central US and then we look further afield on the map we see that they also drop to -15 or below in the entire Mediterranean region and from Mexico down to the north of south America, then what will occur is that maybe 1.5 billion people will possibly be taken out of life's equation.Probably a lot more by 2060
If any reasonable proof that this might occur can be obtained then its time to start contingency plans as its only 49 years away.
I can tentatively believe a lot of things but this map seems a bit extravagant.
Evening all. 976mb low holding steady, winds around 40kts on south side. still praying wont be too bad on previously beaten UK. Latest ASCAT-
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
According to the American University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), locusts and mountain pine beetles won't be the only thing North Americans will have to worry about. According to a map, much of the American Midwest will be covered in perpetual drought by the 2060's, quite possibly desert as the Nebraska Sand Hills appear to be the main source of desertification, as Palmer Index drought values fall below -15: the Sand Hills are sand dunes about 10 metres high by 100 metres wide and about 1 km across, and are grass-stabilized but may have been active dunes during the Medieval Warm Period. During the Dust Bowl in Texas, Palmer Index values rarely fell below -3, and yet sand storms and crop failures were the norm.





Wait a minute. 1 degree of warming above today's levels is projected to shift the Sahara Desert 15 degrees northward? Then where is my Saharan shift during the 0.8C of warming in the last 60 years?

Last decade minus the 1950s in Precipitable Water shows no shifting of the desert. Just food for thought.



Quoting Levi32:


Wait a minute. 1 degree of warming above today's levels is projected to shift the Sahara Desert 15 degrees northward? Then where is my Saharan shift during the 0.8C of warming in the last 60 years?

Last decade minus the 1950s in Precipitable Water shows no shifting of the desert. Just food for thought.





hey Levi, where ya been lately? aint seen ya here in awhile...
Quoting SPLbeater:


hey Levi, where ya been lately? aint seen ya here in awhile...


One word: School.
Quoting Levi32:


One word: School.

Me too!

lol, Hi Levi.
Quoting Levi32:


One word: School.


ah, hope your doing good. im homeschooled so it dont git in the way much with my internet browing lol. your tropical posts where much enjoyable
Quoting Patrap:
So sad, So sudden..

We will miss his wit and posts.

Bordonaro
16 July 1961 - December 2011


His arrangements are posted in my Blog..

..comment # 150


Prayers and Best Wishes for his family, God Bless him.
Quoting Levi32:


Wait a minute. 1 degree of warming above today's levels is projected to shift the Sahara Desert 15 degrees northward? Then where is my Saharan shift during the 0.8C of warming in the last 60 years?

Last decade minus the 1950s in Precipitable Water shows no shifting of the desert. Just food for thought.




I think you will find appreciable movement of the Sahara southward in that timeframe though.
Along with drought in several countries of Central Africa.
I did not know Bordonaro personally, but read many of his valuable and educational posts on this forum. I am very sorry to read of his passing and my condolences to his family and friends.

It looks like the weather for Florida this "winter" will be much warmer and much drier than normal. I bet the airports here won't see below 32F over the next 3 months. As for rain, none of these showers have made it as far inland as Orlando so far today, though we have a 60% chance of rain.
Long range models are not always correct, so far the past 2 months have been nice and wet here in South Central Texas, no rain here in the past week and the Lakes are still in bad shape but if we get any rains next 2 weeks we should have some runoff finally? But this has been a wet La Nina the past 2 months and it has not been hot. Happy Holidays early to all.
Quoting Tazmanian:



thats the 3 mos outlook

here the 6-10 day out look wish has rainfall well above norml





and here is the 8 too 14 day out look wish all show rain fall well above norml for TX


That will not end the drought there. It will take more than two weeks of moderate rainfall(- if they even get it- ) to possibly end the drought as stated in post # 207..
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Long range models are not always correct, so far the past 2 months have been nice and wet here in South Central Texas, no rain here in the past week and the Lakes are still in bad shape but if we get any rains next 2 weeks we should have some runoff finally? But this has been a wet La Nina the past 2 months and it has not been hot. Happy Holidays early to all.
I do not put much confidence in the long rang forecasts either. They do help me get an idea of what the main players will be a month or so down the road.
Quoting pottery:

I think you will find appreciable movement of the Sahara southward in that timeframe though.
Along with drought in several countries of Central Africa.


Kind of, though the difference between those two decades looks like it was mostly due to the multidecadal cycle in Sahel rainfall, which was at a peak in the 1950s, but is only just now coming back up from drought.

The GFS keeps flip-flopping with regards to the rest of December. Last night it showed a very cold end of December with a lot of snow throughout the USA. But today, it has above average temperatures through the end of December across much of the Eastern USA.

The GFS has done horrible thus far, and the other models aren't doing so well either.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS keeps flip-flopping with regards to the rest of December. Last night it showed a very cold end of December with a lot of snow throughout the USA. But today, it has above average temperatures through the end of December across much of the Eastern USA.

The GFS has done horrible thus far, and the other models aren't doing so well either.


What's worse is every forecast I have seen for December followed the models into a frigid month for the east, but they have all busted thus far. It puzzles me why everyone believed the GFS in the first place.
One of the coolest loops I've seen in a while

A person could learn a lot from staring at global animations like this for a little bit each day.
Quoting Levi32:


What's worse is every forecast I have seen for December followed the models into a frigid month for the east, but they have all busted thus far. It puzzles me why everyone believed the GFS in the first place.


I just want it to stop being in the 80s in December in Florida, any idea when we might finally see some real, long lasting cold weather? I have a general idea of the setup across the US and Canada, but I'm not the best at forecasting cold fronts, ect (strong point is tropical cyclones and severe weather)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I just want it to stop being in the 80s in December in Florida, any idea when we might finally see some real, long lasting cold weather? I have a general idea of the setup across the US and Canada, but I'm not the best at forecasting cold fronts, ect (strong point is tropical cyclones and severe weather)


I've never done much winter forecasting myself except for locally here in Alaska. I've been doing a lot of posts recently about this winter for the U.S., simply because I'm curious as to why all the forecasts are for cold. The winter in general I think will be mild for Florida, more typical of a La Nina, so I doubt you'll see any truly long-lasting cold.
Quoting Levi32:
One of the coolest loops I've seen in a while

A person could learn a lot from staring at global animations like this for a little bit each day.


Looks like alaska is about to get hammered
236. But that's another question, this is a 2nd winter with a La Nina, how might that effect the SE US - any different from last winter?
Quoting CybrTeddy:
236. But that's another question, this is a 2nd winter with a La Nina, how might that effect the SE US - any different from last winter?


Well yes because although 1st-year La Ninas can be cold in the southeast, like last year was, the 2nd-year ones almost never are. Furthermore, never in known history (since the 1800s) have we had back to back La Nina winters that were cold in the eastern United States.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I just want it to stop being in the 80s in December in Florida, any idea when we might finally see some real, long lasting cold weather? I have a general idea of the setup across the US and Canada, but I'm not the best at forecasting cold fronts, ect (strong point is tropical cyclones and severe weather)

Move North...you crackpot :) I like 80's!
Quoting Levi32:
One of the coolest loops I've seen in a while

A person could learn a lot from staring at global animations like this for a little bit each day.
Thanks great link Levi.. SSEC also has a great selection of other wx online resources for anyone who doesn't already have it bookmarked... link
New blog Link
Quoting CybrTeddy:
236. But that's another question, this is a 2nd winter with a La Nina, how might that effect the SE US - any different from last winter?



yes not has wet in N CA has last winter was
Hey folks.sorry to hear the news about one of the blotters passing.how is everyone?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Hey folks.sorry to hear the news about one of the blotters passing.how is everyone?
Quoting washingtonian115:

Hey folks.sorry to hear the news about one of the blotters passing.how is everyone?
sorrry I'm using my kindle and not my regular computer.so some words may be screwed up.I meant blogger.
For West Palm Beach...

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
For West Palm Beach...

nice weather your having.
Fort Lauderdale; notice that we are much warmer than West Palm Beach.

Quoting Grothar:
Fort Lauderdale



No cold weather in sight. Sigh.....
Wilmington, North Carolina:

Minot, ND

Healthy looking blob of convection in the S.W.Caribbean this evening..
San Diego, California:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS keeps flip-flopping with regards to the rest of December. Last night it showed a very cold end of December with a lot of snow throughout the USA. But today, it has above average temperatures through the end of December across much of the Eastern USA.

The GFS has done horrible thus far, and the other models aren't doing so well either.
I thought some of the models did well predicting the position of the jet stream for the past 10 days or so, but the primary storm track has not changed much either.To me that is like predicting that the Sun will rise.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
San Diego, California:



Looks boring.
How are you doing Grothar? Putting up some inside X-Mas decorations. Wreaths, Rudolph, the Bumble, etc.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
How are you doing Grothar? Putting up some inside X-Mas decorations. Wreaths, Rudolph, the Bumble, etc.


Watching football, oops. I mean I am watching the weather channel. Interest weather going on.
Quoting Patrap:
So sad, So sudden..

We will miss his wit and posts.

Bordonaro
16 July 1961 - December 2011


His arrangements are posted in my Blog..

..comment # 150



I'm really sorry to hear that (thanks Pat for posting this). One of the few persons I came in touch with in this blog. But's my fault of course, because I'm hesitating in posting and prefer lurking. May God be with our Bordo!
Sidewiew to Germany/Europe: A lot of storms, but not so severe in central Europe. Maybe more to come. At least it's not so dry and we are getting some rain. Drought has been a real problem in spring and again in autumn; rivers nearly fell dry. --- And, hey, Groth, nice to see you!!
Quoting Grothar:


Watching football, oops. I mean I am watching the weather channel. Interest weather going on.
Hello Gro.
Quoting barbamz:

I'm really sorry to hear that (thanks Pat for posting this). One of the few persons I came in touch with in this blog. But's my fault of course, because I'm hesitating in posting and prefer lurking. May God be with our Bordo!
Sidewiew to Germany/Europe: A lot of storms, but not so severe in central Europe. Maybe more to come. At least it's not so dry and we are getting some rain. Drought has been a real problem in spring and again in autumn; rivers nearly fell dry. --- And, hey, Groth, nice to see you!!


Hey, Barb! Terrible shame about Bord. We are all going to miss him.

You are all having some bad storms there I see.
Quoting hydrus:
Hello Gro.


Hi, hydrus. Saw the blob you posted before.
Quoting Grothar:


Hi, hydrus. Saw the blob you posted before.
Rather impressive looking really. If it persists, who knows....Invest?
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, Barb! Terrible shame about Bord. We are all going to miss him.

You are all having some bad storms there I see.

Sure. Bordo was some centuries younger than you (and me of course), wasn't he?
Yeah, weather is a bit stormy but nothing serious. And no snow in the plain land, and there probably won't be any till Christmas, I fear. So I'll have some problems to catch a foto of the r e a l German winterwonderland with snow, very old buildings, Christmas markets and so on this year to enchant the US bloggers, as I could do the last years- :-(
It's late now, I have to leave. But I'm looking forward to some nice conversation during the months of winter!
Quoting barbamz:

Sure. Bordo was some centuries younger than you (and me of course), wasn't he?
Yeah, weather is a bit stormy but nothing serious. And no snow in the plain land, and there probably won't be any till Christmas, I fear. So I'll have some problems to catch a foto of the r e a l German winterwonderland with snow, very old buildings, Christmas markets and so on this year to enchant the US bloggers, as I could do the last years- :-(
It's late now, I have to leave. But I'm looking forward to some nice conversation during the months of winter!


Bord was one of the first blogger who taught me how to paste an image. I then taught hydrus. So Bord is still on the blog in a way. He taught me a lot. I remember some of the pictures you posted last year of the Marktplatz.
Quoting Grothar:


Bord was one of the first blogger who taught me how to paste an image. I then taught hydrus. So Bord is still on the blog in a way. He taught me a lot. I remember some of the pictures you posted last year of the Marktplatz.
Yes, yes..I am much more computer savvy thanks to Gro...Now I want one of these ...
Quoting Grothar:


Bord was one of the first blogger who taught me how to paste an image. I then taught hydrus. So Bord is still on the blog in a way. He taught me a lot. I remember some of the pictures you posted last year of the Marktplatz.

Your brain is working well, Grothar. I made a Christmas postcard out of it (one of my professional duties), and people in my place fortunately like it. But I won't post the internet address of course.
I'm a bit distracted right now by surgery problems with my parents and, moreover, I like to follow the volcano stuff in Europe (Canaries and of course Iceland). Though in Iceland things are still quiet, the webcams are marvellous when weather is fine over there. Unfortunately the US people are still snoring during the few ours of daylight in Iceland right now. But if someone is awaken, try in the very early hours of your day
http://eldgos.mila.is/katla/
or the other choices of webcams on the left side.
Sleep well! Barbara

This is from the geysir cam some days ago (edited):

Link
Quoting hydrus:
Yes, yes..I am much more computer savvy thanks to Gro...Now I want one of these ...


Lord help us all if you get your hands on one of those. If you are a good boy this year, I will teach you how to post animations.
Economics.. The domino effect: If the 4 biggest EU banks collapse, will that affect US banks?

Is The Eurozone Banking System About To Collapse?

Link

Over-leveraged U.S. banks? Top 4 have $235.05 Trillion in OTC Derivatives

The coming storm: According to the website Bankorrealestate.com, the four largest U.S. banks are in much worse shape than even their European counterparts. J.P Morgan Chase is believed to be carrying as much as $78 trillion dollars in derivative debt, Citibank is said to have $56 trillion, Bank of America is said to have $53 trillion and Goldman Sachs is believed to have $48 trillion. According to BOR%u2019s report, U.S. banks are over-leveraged by debt-to-asset ratio somewhere around the tune of 50:1. It might be worth mentioning that the GDP of the entire world for one year is only $100 trillion and the largest U.S. bank is almost carrying that much is debt exposure. Meaning banks have almost no real money in them, only IOU%u2019s and enough government-printed cash to keep the fiat pyramid scheme going for yet a little while longer until the whole system is so over-stressed with debt that it eventually crashes.

Link
Quoting sunlinepr:
Economics.. The domino effect: If the 4 biggest EU banks collapse, will that affect US banks?


Economics is like meteorology now that it's been globalized. The collapse of the Euro will likely mean a recession, which could plummet into a depression if enough things are toppled over. The US and China aren't in a good position to loose the Euro, and the loss of either the US or China means a recession and the collapse of the other, which could mean a global depression and the loss of consumer society for a few years (especially with most Western countries depending on imports rather than exports).

No doubt that this could cause the rise of extremism in a few countries, and the complete collapse of some other countries. We'll see, but I must admit the British sure aren't helping at all...then again the EU was never going to work in the first place.

Never forget that the Great Depression was a direct (or very close to direct) cause of WW2.
Quoting Grothar:


Lord help us all if you get your hands on one of those. If you are a good boy this year, I will teach you how to post animations.
I already know that I was good this year....Mum told me..:>
Huge WV flare over Panama....

Quoting yqt1001:


Economics is like meteorology now that it's been globalized. The collapse of the Euro will likely mean a recession, which could plummet into a depression if enough things are toppled over. The US and China aren't in a good position to loose the Euro, and the loss of either the US or China means a recession and the collapse of the other, which could mean a global depression and the loss of consumer society for a few years (especially with most Western countries depending on imports rather than exports).

No doubt that this could cause the rise of extremism in a few countries, and the complete collapse of some other countries. We'll see, but I must admit the British sure aren't helping at all...then again the EU was never going to work in the first place.

Never forget that the Great Depression was a direct (or very close to direct) cause of WW2.


Agree in your comment.... specially the concept that "this could cause the rise of extremism"; which is something already present....
Quoting Grothar:


Lord help us all if you get your hands on one of those. If you are a good boy this year, I will teach you how to post animations.


i would LOVE to be taught how to post animated images. that would be nice :D
Quoting yqt1001:


Economics is like meteorology now that it's been globalized. The collapse of the Euro will likely mean a recession, which could plummet into a depression if enough things are toppled over. The US and China aren't in a good position to loose the Euro, and the loss of either the US or China means a recession and the collapse of the other, which could mean a global depression and the loss of consumer society for a few years (especially with most Western countries depending on imports rather than exports).

No doubt that this could cause the rise of extremism in a few countries, and the complete collapse of some other countries. We'll see, but I must admit the British sure aren't helping at all...then again the EU was never going to work in the first place.

Never forget that the Great Depression was a direct (or very close to direct) cause of WW2.
This is scary stuff...I will relocate to Christmas Island to escape the economic wrath of da world...
Quoting hydrus:
This is scary stuff...I will relocate to Christmas Island to escape the economic wrath of da world...


How much is the sq ft of land worth? (include me the palm tree in the quote)...
Quoting hydrus:
Rather impressive looking really. If it persists, who knows....Invest?


the 850mb vorticy is weak and a lil stretched....looks like the center is south of panama, but if it did move north into Caribbean, i would say it have good chance of an Invest. maybe. :D
Up to now, 3 models agree on that strong Low in Mid Atl.

Quoting sunlinepr:


How much is the sq ft of land worth? (include me the palm tree in the quote)...
Dont know, but the record high is 89 and the record low is 57..lol..
Quoting SPLbeater:


i would LOVE to be taught how to post images. that would be nice :D

Its not that hard...

1.) Right click on the image of your choice.
2.) Click "Copy image URL"
3.) Click the "Image" button right above the comment box that I am currently typing in.
4.) Paste the image URL into the box that pops up.
5.) Click okay, and hit "Post Comment".

To be honest, I'm not sure why people aren't getting how to post images...It's not that hard.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Up to now, 3 models agree on that strong Low in Mid Atl.

Looks impressive anyway..I would bet some type of low pressure will form in that area.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its not that hard...

1.) Right click on the image of your choice.
2.) Click "Copy image URL"
3.) Click the "Image" button right above the comment box that I am currently typing in.
4.) Paste the image URL into the box that pops up.
5.) Click okay, and hit "Post Comment".

To be honest, I'm not sure why people aren't getting how to post images...It's not that hard.


maybe the reason some dont know how to post an animated image is because WE HAVNT BEEN TOLD HOW. as for still images, thats simple
Quoting SPLbeater:


maybe the reason some dont know how to post an animated image is because WE HAVNT BEEN TOLD HOW. as for still images, thats simple

There are only certain animated images that you can post on here. Most of them you have to link to. :)

The ones that you can post here, you do it the same way as still images.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Its not that hard...

1.) Right clock on the image of your choice.
2.) Click "Copy image URL"
3.) Click the "Image" button right above the comment box that I am currently typing in.
4.) Paste the image URL into the box that pops up.
5.) Click okay, and hit "Post Comment".

To be honest, I'm not sure why people aren't getting how to post images...It's not that hard.
Some people were around before personal computers, and never had the need for them..Now that they know what computers can do, people want to learn. It may not be hard for you, but for someone who has never used one, it can be intimidating.
Quoting hydrus:
Some people were around before personal computers, and never had the need for them..Now that they know what computers can do, people want to learn. It may not be hard for you, but for someone who has never used one, it can be intimidating.


You tell him, hydrus. You should have seen me use the first telephone.

lets try this again....lol


not workin:(
Quoting Grothar:


You tell him, hydrus. You should have seen me use the first telephone.

Here is the guy that put it all together.
Remember these ...I do, we had,em both. The model 500 was one of the most popular phones ever produced............ .The Western Electric model 500 telephone series was the standard desk-style domestic telephone set issued by the Bell System in North America from late 1949 through the 1984 Bell System divestiture. Millions of model 500-series phones were produced and were present in almost every home in North America. Many are still in use today thanks to their durability and ample availability. Its modular construction made manufacture and repair simple, and facilitated a large number of variants and derivatives with added features. Touch-Tone was introduced to home customers in 1963 with the model 1500 telephone, which had only the 10 number keys. In 1968 the model 2500 telephone was introduced, which added the * and # keys. The model 2500 is still in production today by several manufacturers, over 40 years after it was introduced.
Quoting hydrus:
Remember these ...I do, we had,em both. The model 500 was one of the most popular phones ever produced............ .The Western Electric model 500 telephone series was the standard desk-style domestic telephone set issued by the Bell System in North America from late 1949 through the 1984 Bell System divestiture. Millions of model 500-series phones were produced and were present in almost every home in North America. Many are still in use today thanks to their durability and ample availability. Its modular construction made manufacture and repair simple, and facilitated a large number of variants and derivatives with added features. Touch-Tone was introduced to home customers in 1963 with the model 1500 telephone, which had only the 10 number keys. In 1968 the model 2500 telephone was introduced, which added the * and # keys. The model 2500 is still in production today by several manufacturers, over 40 years after it was introduced.


Yes, of course I remember them. :)
Quoting hydrus:
Remember these ...I do, we had,em both. The model 500 was one of the most popular phones ever produced............ .The Western Electric model 500 telephone series was the standard desk-style domestic telephone set issued by the Bell System in North America from late 1949 through the 1984 Bell System divestiture. Millions of model 500-series phones were produced and were present in almost every home in North America. Many are still in use today thanks to their durability and ample availability. Its modular construction made manufacture and repair simple, and facilitated a large number of variants and derivatives with added features. Touch-Tone was introduced to home customers in 1963 with the model 1500 telephone, which had only the 10 number keys. In 1968 the model 2500 telephone was introduced, which added the * and # keys. The model 2500 is still in production today by several manufacturers, over 40 years after it was introduced.
Nostalgia, I missed them,for some reason reminds me of beautiful days of my youth, long gone.. ;(
Quoting hydrus:
Remember these ...I do, we had,em both. The model 500 was one of the most popular phones ever produced............ .The Western Electric model 500 telephone series was the standard desk-style domestic telephone set issued by the Bell System in North America from late 1949 through the 1984 Bell System divestiture. Millions of model 500-series phones were produced and were present in almost every home in North America. Many are still in use today thanks to their durability and ample availability. Its modular construction made manufacture and repair simple, and facilitated a large number of variants and derivatives with added features. Touch-Tone was introduced to home customers in 1963 with the model 1500 telephone, which had only the 10 number keys. In 1968 the model 2500 telephone was introduced, which added the * and # keys. The model 2500 is still in production today by several manufacturers, over 40 years after it was introduced.
I have one of those in army green :) oh and a iphone
Raining again, been on & off for two days now. 0.17" so far today.


A UN climate deal was salvaged in Durban.
Rice paddocks in some parts of the southern Riverina are under attack from ducks in plague proportions, and some farmers have abandoned trying to replant their crop for a second or even third time.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:


A 1C rise in global temperatures would turn the sandhills into a scrub desert and the dunes were active during the MWP (see image). Notice also that the Sahara Desert expands toward England.


Again, I would have to see the data to understand how a 1 degree Centigrade rise in temperature in 50 years (assuming that was possible) could lead to the Sahara Desert spreading towards the British Isles. These are the kinds of doomsday predictions that ALL scientists must understand and agree on since, as had been said, we need to do something immediately to do what we can to stop this. If we can't get scientific agreement, then these types of forecasts should stop, before we get into "the boy who cried wolf" syndrome.
Something from the AGU meeting..

Weather affects timing of some natural hazards
Seasonal patterns in earthquakes and volcanic eruptions can be linked to rain and snow.
I guess this one of the ways we show the age divide here. I never saw anything but a black Western Electric wall or desk phone until I was in my teens. I remember seeing the first color phone and thinking how amazing it was back then. It was, I believe, against the law to connect anything but a phone company approved device to your phone line, and all phone lines were Bell companies and hardwired to the wall. None of this RJ-11 modular stuff then. The first push button phone was really a godsend to me, since I have some kind of dyslexia that always made me stick my fingers in the wrong hole. It took about three minutes just to dial a number with those dial phones, so one slip meant another three minutes shot.

Really amazing how many things have changed in my 65 years on earth.
298. BtnTx
Quoting sar2401:
I guess this one of the ways we show the age divide here. I never saw anything but a black Western Electric wall or desk phone until I was in my teens. I remember seeing the first color phone and thinking how amazing it was back then. It was, I believe, against the law to connect anything but a phone company approved device to your phone line, and all phone lines were Bell companies and hardwired to the wall. None of this RJ-11 modular stuff then. The first push button phone was really a godsend to me, since I have some kind of dyslexia that always made me stick my fingers in the wrong hole. It took about three minutes just to dial a number with those dial phones, so one slip meant another three minutes shot.

Really amazing how many things have changed in my 65 years on earth.
Absolutely amazing the changes are in my 57 years of life as I type this on an iPad2.
Quoting Skyepony:
Something from the AGU meeting..

Weather affects timing of some natural hazards
Seasonal patterns in earthquakes and volcanic eruptions can be linked to rain and snow.


Interesting post, Skye. We always had a thing about "earthquake weather" in California. It was usually connected to a Santa Ana condition, where there was much higher pressure inland and lower pressure on the coast, leading to strong downslope winds. Obviously, all Santa Ana's don't lead to earthquakes, but it was striking in my 35 years in California how often we had the larger quakes occur during this kind of weather. I have no idea if any of this has any scientific foundation, but it was always a good topic for discussion. :)
anybody else see, Joe Bastardi has left AccuWeather. he has left because of their liberal views of 'climate change' and calls 'global warming' a complete fraud(I STAND BEHIND HIM) he has bashed the AccuWeather team, and TWC for all the liberal stuff they throwin into everything. he and another guy have just started a group called Weather Bell or something.

should be better then all the other bigtime media. check it out


I actually remember these being used at both sets of grandparent's homes. Have a vague memory of being held up to talk into one.

What this has to do with weather I know not, although it does make me wonder what it's like around Kitchener/Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. Guess I'll use WU to check.
How many major scientific misstatements does Joe Bastardi have to make before In-Accuweather fires him as their chief long-range forecaster?
By Joe Romm on Jan 18, 2011 at 5:49 pm

...
Just last month, he cooked the books in an official In-Accuweather video to smear some of the nation's leading scientists. I called for him to be fired and suggested referring to the company as InAccuweather until it does. Bastardi did ultimately retract the video but couldn't bring himself to admit that his accusation of fraud against NSIDC was not merely completely unwarranted but totally inappropriate and in fact based in part on his simple misreading of a graph.


http://thinkprogress.org/romm/2011/01/18/207355/j oe-bastardi-in-accuweather-chief-long-range-foreca ster-s/
Quoting SPLbeater:
anybody else see, Joe Bastardi has left AccuWeather. he has left because of their liberal views of 'climate change' and calls 'global warming' a complete fraud(I STAND BEHIND HIM) he has bashed the AccuWeather team, and TWC for all the liberal stuff they throwin into everything. he and another guy have just started a group called Weather Bell or something.

should be better then all the other bigtime media. check it out
Well, that's not a position I would care to take.

My DDD (dear departed dad) used to say, "Son, in your life you will need to take a stand on many things, just try not to stand behind a manure spreader."
Quoting SPLbeater:
anybody else see, Joe Bastardi has left AccuWeather. he has left because of their liberal views of 'climate change' and calls 'global warming' a complete fraud(I STAND BEHIND HIM) he has bashed the AccuWeather team, and TWC for all the liberal stuff they throwin into everything. he and another guy have just started a group called Weather Bell or something.

should be better then all the other bigtime media. check it out
You're just finding this out now? And no, it was not big media. Nobody outside of the small weather community knows who Joe Bastardi is.


BTW, the globe is warming, that's a fact. Get over it.
Sar~ I've seen a handful of papers linking high winds from hurricanes & such, the vibrations from the drag & pressure difference setting them off. Haven't seen anything about the Santa Anita winds correlation. Could be some out there..if not sounds like a great thesis topic for one of our aspiring.

Certainly a better topic than our one from earlier. My only argument against using the death count as the end all for worse years turns dark.. You can adjust money to inflation easy enough but how do you adjust body count to population change? Census is so infrequent, add on who knows how many evacuated.. The warning system, communication & transportation systems have changed dramatically. Thinks about 1928 Okeechobee with today's population in both 1928 & today. The 1928 storm it hit Lake O a day later than expected. Many evacuated, thought it had turned & returned home to die along the fairly populated shore. & like Katrina so many died due to levee failure. Another example is Jeanne in 2004..Killed thousands in in a well warned Haiti when it was a weaker storm, mostly due to a political failure, while only a few dozen died on the other half of Hispaniola in DR. Jeanne went on to hit FL as a Cat 3, with little warning, while some of us didn't have power back from the last 'cane & flood on up the coast through many states & only killed 5. Jeanne kinda scores one for you though since had it not been for the other 'canes taking out the weaker stuff, Jeanne would have been way more damaging dollar wise. Extreme weather like the storms themselves can be hard to quantify.
Quoting sar2401:
OracleDeAtlantis:
There's something in your post that makes IE8 stop working when I try to quote it. I have no idea where your picture came from. It certainly, in the form you posted it, wasn't from the USGS. Where exactly did you get it it, and what exactly does it mean? I'm totally baffled at this point.

BTW, geologists have no ability distinguish an earthquake as being a foreshock of a larger quake until the larger quake occurs. Japan has 5-6 magnitude earthquakes on a regular basis, and the vast majority are not followed by larger earthquakes. This is an area of earth science they know almost nothing about, hence the inability of using one earthquake to predict the occurance of another.

Post 195 is simply a cut, colorized, and published forecast, using the current world map from the USGS earthquake site highlighting recent activity. That foreshock is easy to find, using the date(3-9-11) on the picture that was published.

Haiti had a foreshock too, using a very similar type of picture and mental model, including the exact same curious Latin writing. That one wasn't recognized by science, however, because it came in two parts. Nevertheless, someone pointed to a place on the earth and said in back to back posts,

"On the eve of hurricane Ike's memory, the earth's crust has moved at a certain point, to help make a big one."

Note how the vertex "point," where the foreshock occurs in Venezuela, is replaced with a vortex only six days later; but it's what lies at the heart of both pictures, and the Latin that tells the story of where the "Big One" referenced in these three related posts, will occur.

These are a curious set of signposts, and the direction that second vertex moves, is exactly the direction that table("Mensa") or piece of the earth's crust will turn("Verto") when the earthquake in Haiti strikes.

The earth, she farts, she burps, she coughs, she sneezes, she snorts, she wheezes, she's an enigma; but she can talk, and make no mistake, I think she's preparing to go to war with weapons that would amaze even Moses.




Quoting Grothar:


You tell him, hydrus. You should have seen me use the first telephone.



I thought in your day the telephone was a rock with a leaf hung on it that said 'Hello', and you threw and hit someone you wanted to talk too.
Never seen a warning like that before.

Attack of the Yellow Crayon

First storm this week expected to begin overnight:



Second one isn't fully in focus, but they seem to be expect it to be bombing as it approaches. Models seem to have backed a little away from its previous strength, which is nice. That said, bombing storms moving at a fair clip are difficult to get right.
Good morning to anyone who is up. So quiet here this time of year. Temps up to 74 in a day or two here, with rain of course, so I can't be outside enjoying it. For now, out to start the car to de-ice it. Everyone have a great Monday!
@Cotillion, Thinking of ya mate. It ain't looking good for ya's.















Good morning
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24
21:00 PM JST December 12 2011
===============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 9.6N 112.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west slowly

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 9.1N 110.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
So I went back and read the first blog. Interesting... noted this quote: "After all, there is no weather underground."

If that line of humor had continued..., well, once a year or so is ok.

2.90" of rain in Daytona Beach last night! Right now it seems Jacksonville is getting it.

If people can't post videos on here properly then they shouldn't post them at all because it screws up the blog.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I thought in your day the telephone was a rock with a leaf hung on it that said 'Hello', and you threw and hit someone you wanted to talk too.
great post.:)
wow, i go and watch Last Of The Mohicans, come back and only 1 more post in 2 hours. sure is active today, lol
Is the writer of this blog aware that the Halocene Thermal Maximum occurred between~7kbp and 4kbp? We're nearing the 11000 year mark which could well mark the end of this interglacial. The temperatures though have been falling for most of the last 10000 years. The Eemian Thermal Maximum was much warmer than now maybe we'll get there before this is over. So What? Not much we can do about it.