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Was the 2010 Haiti Earthquake triggered by deforestation and the 2008 hurricanes?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:57 PM GMT on December 20, 2010

Major earthquakes occur when the stress on rocks between two tectonic plates reaches a critical breaking point, allowing the earth to move along the connecting fault. While the slow creep of the tectonic plates makes earthquakes inevitable along major faults, the timing and exact location of the quake epicenter can be influenced by outside forces pushing down on Earth's crust. For example, the sloshing of water into the Eastern Pacific during El Niño events has been linked to magnitude 4, 5, and 6 earthquakes on the seafloor below, due to the extra weight of water caused by local sea level rise. Sea level rise due to rapid melting of Earth's ice sheets could also potentially trigger earthquakes, though it is unknown at what melting rate such an effect might become significant.


Figure 1. Google Earth image of Haiti taken November 8, 2010, showing the capital of Port-Au-Prince and the mountainous region to its west where the epicenter of the 2010 earthquake was. Note the brown color of the mountains, where all the vegetation has been stripped off, leaving bare slopes subject to extreme erosion. Heavy rains in recent years have washed huge amounts of sediment into the Leogane Delta to the north.


Figure 2. Zoom-in view of the Leogane Delta region of Figure 1, showing the large expansion in the Delta's area between 2002 and 2010. High amounts of sediments have been eroded from Haiti's deforested mountains and deposited in the Delta. Recent expansion of the river channel due to runoff from Hurricane Tomas' rains is apparent in the 2010 image. Image credit: Google Earth, Digital Globe, GeoEye.

At last week's American Geophysical Union (AGU) meeting last week in San Francisco, Shimon Wdowinsky of the University of Miami proposed a different method whereby unusual strains on the crust might trigger an earthquake. In a talk titled, Triggering of the 2010 Haiti earthquake by hurricanes and possibly deforestation , Wdowinsky studied the stresses on Earth's crust over the epicenter of the mighty January 12, 2010 Haiti earthquake that killed over 200,000 people. This quake was centered in a mountainous area of southwest Haiti that has undergone severe deforestation—over 98% of the trees have been felled on the mountain in recent decades, allowing extreme erosion to occur during Haiti's frequent heavy rainfall events. Since 1975, the erosion rate in these mountains has been 6 mm/year, compared to the typical erosion rate of less than 1 mm/yr in forested tropical mountains. Satellite imagery (Figure 2) reveals that the eroded material has built up significantly in the Leogane Delta to the north of the earthquake's epicenter. In the 2008 hurricane season, four storms--Fay, Gustav, Hanna, and Ike--dumped heavy rains on the impoverished nation. The bare, rugged hillsides let flood waters rampage into large areas of the country, killing over 1,000, destroying 22,702 homes, and damaging another 84,625. About 800,000 people were affected--8% of Haiti's total population. The flood wiped out 70% of Haiti's crops, resulting in dozens of deaths of children due to malnutrition in the months following the storms. Damage was estimated at over $1 billion, the costliest natural disaster in Haitian history. The damage amounted to over 5% of the country's $17 billion GDP, a staggering blow for a nation so poor. Tragically, the hurricanes of 2008 may have set up Haiti for an ever larger disaster. Wdowinsky computed that the amount of mass eroded away from the mountains over the epicenter of the 2010 earthquake was sufficient to cause crustal strains capable of causing a vertically-oriented slippage along a previously unknown fault. This type of motion is quite unusual in this region, as most quakes in Haiti tend to be of the strike-slip variety, where the tectonic plates slide horizontally past each other. The fact that the 2010 Haiti quake occurred along a vertically moving fault lends support to the idea that the slippage was triggered due to mass stripped off the mountains by erosion over the epicenter, combined with the extra weight of the extra sediment deposited in the Leogane Delta clamping down on the northern portion of the fault. Wdowinsky gave two other examples in Taiwan where earthquakes followed several months after the passage of tropical cyclones that dumped heavy rains over mountainous regions. His theory of tropical cyclone-triggered quakes deserves consideration, and provides another excellent reason to curb excessive deforestation!


Figure 3. Two of 2008's four tropical cyclones that ravaged Haiti: Tropical Storm Hanna (right) and Hurricane Gustav (left). Image taken at 10:40 am EDT September 1, 2008. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Christmas in Haiti
Portlight.org will brighten the lives of hundreds of kids in Haiti this week, thanks to their successful Christmas in Haiti fundraiser. Portlight raised $1800 to buy toys, candies, and other assorted goodies. The shipment left Charleston last week, and will arrive in time for Christmas. Thanks to everyone who helped support this worthy effort!

Jeff Masters
Stuff for Haiti
Stuff for Haiti
Ms. Mae
Ms. Mae

Hurricane Earthquake

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting presslord:


Excellent that you differentiated between the two states!!!!!!!!!!!!! Now...please make sure the evil "s" word stuff stays well away from the South Carolina coast!!! Thanks!!
snow press get the shovel ready you are going to need it better yet tell the wife to pick one up and wrap it for christmas and then you can guess what it is
Quoting severstorm:

Morning jeff9641, looks like some interesting weather could be here saturday night. Hey Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year my FRIEND.


You too brother I know we will get heavy rain and maybe some thunderstorms with such dynamics moving overhead Saturday Night. Anytime you get that strong of a Low pressure coming off the Gulf calls for concern. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year as well!
1003. Walshy
Quoting IKE:
A lot of mets hanging their hats on the Euro(ECMWF). I'm not an expert...I'll take their word on it, but there would be some ticked off people if this storm didn't pan out.

You think there will be some....paying attention, to the 12Z runs later today:)


Indeed. At 3am this morning the GFS jumped ON board and everything seems to be going down hill.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
651 am EST Wednesday Dec 22 2010

Prefer to trend toward the European model (ecmwf) solution since the GFS is coming
more in line with each model run.
Will therefore maintain a slight
chance for precipitation into Sunday as the coastal low pulls
northeast. Will keep all precipitation liquid at this point...as
ongoing hourly forecast temperatures remain above freezing. It
must be noted that even the slightest deviation in track and
intensity could greatly change expected impacts.
This weekend
storm system will be continue to be closely monitored.



Quoting IKE:
A lot of mets hanging their hats on the Euro(ECMWF). I'm not an expert...I'll take their word on it, but there would be some ticked off people if this storm didn't pan out.

You think there will be some....paying attention, to the 12Z runs later today:)

There's also some mets that don't place too much confidence in forecasting models that blow up storms to epic proportions beyond 4 days.

We saw this with Richard earlier this year I think.

I remember the HWRF model blowing up a tropical storm to a category 4 hitting Tampa out to 6 days. The storm didn't even come close to attaining that intensity. It ended up hundreds of miles away.

Once more data is gathered and processed with this model, these estimates should come down. I think it can be a big storm, but I doubt anything close to what this EURO run is suggesting.
1005. IKE
Quoting severstorm:

Morning Ike, The anwser to your comment is YES YES YES hAPPY holiday Dude


Merry Christmas to all.

I'd love to see some white stuff/snow. I'll believe it when I see it.

62.6 here now.
1006. IKE
Quoting cat5hurricane:

There's also some mets that don't place too much confidence in forecasting models that blow up storms to epic proportions beyond 4 days.

We saw this with Richard earlier this year I think.

I remember the HWRF model blowing up a tropical storm to a category 4 hitting Tampa out to 6 days. The storm didn't even come close to attaining that intensity. It ended up hundreds of miles away.

Once more data is gathered and processed with this model, these estimates should come down. I think it can be a big storm, but I doubt anything close to what this EURO run is suggesting.


That's true too.
KOG...Please stop saying that word!!!!! AAARRRGGGHHH!!!
Quoting Jeff9641:


You too brother I know we will get heavy rain and maybe some thunderstorms with such dynamics moving overhead Saturday Night. Anytime you get that strong of a Low pressure coming off the Gulf calls for concern. Merry Christmas and Happy New Year as well!

You like what they did down there with the Magic? I know one thing is I'm glad to see Turkoglu back there. I think him alone makes Howard a better center.
According to HAMweather, there were no record daily lows set or tied in the US in the past 24 hours, and only a single record daily low maximum (Waimanalo, Hawaii, tied last year's record of 74). On the other end of the scale, there were 127 record daily highs or high minimums set or tied, mostly in the southwest. High record/low record ratio: 127:1.

(Over the past two days, there have been no record daily lows and five record daily low maximums set or tied. In contrast, there have been 87 record daily highs set or tied, and 199 record daily high minimums set or tied. Over the past three days, those numbers are 15 low or low maximums and 409 high or high minimums, and over the past four days, those numbers are 21 low or low maximums and 464 high or high minimums.)

Now, for those who see some kind of pro-GW conspiracy in not presenting daily records in such a way that tied records are set apart from new records, I repeat the first paragraph thusly:

According to HAMweather, there were no new record daily lows or low maximums set in the US in the past 24 hours. On the other end of the scale, there were 104 new record daily highs or high minimum set, mostly in the southwest. High record/low record ratio: 104:0.
Quoting Walshy:


Indeed. At 3am this morning the GFS jumped ON board and everything seems to be going down hill.

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
651 am EST Wednesday Dec 22 2010

Prefer to trend toward the European model (ecmwf) solution since the GFS is coming
more in line with each model run.
Will therefore maintain a slight
chance for precipitation into Sunday as the coastal low pulls
northeast. Will keep all precipitation liquid at this point...as
ongoing hourly forecast temperatures remain above freezing. It
must be noted that even the slightest deviation in track and
intensity could greatly change expected impacts.
This weekend
storm system will be continue to be closely monitored.





Uggghhh!!!!!
Quoting presslord:
KOG...Please stop saying that word!!!!! AAARRRGGGHHH!!!

Press...I'm still thinking right now just some cold rain later in the week for Isle of Palms, SC.
Quoting presslord:
KOG...Please stop saying that word!!!!! AAARRRGGGHHH!!!
ok i will use white frozen precip instead
1014. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
ok i will use white frozen precip instead


Looks like you're a believer!
Quoting presslord:


Uggghhh!!!!!


Yea Press, could get rather interesting around these parts on Saturday night. I am being very careful how I mention that this morning. So far I have labeled it on air as possibly some wintry weather for parts of the southeast.
1016. Walshy
Dramatic forecast change for Greenville SC this morning from weatherunderground.


Christmas Day
Cloudy. Snow likely...mainly in the afternoon. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Cooler with highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Cold with lows in the mid 20s.
Quoting Walshy:
Dramatic forecast change for Greenville SC this morning from weatherunderground.


Christmas Day
Cloudy. Snow likely...mainly in the afternoon. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Cooler with highs in the lower 30s. Chance of snow 60 percent.
nt_chancesnow
Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Cold with lows in the mid 20s.

Someone's wishing for a White Christmas.
Quoting Chucktown:


Yea Press, could get rather interesting around these parts on Saturday night. I am being very careful how I mention that this morning. So far I have labeled it on air as possibly some wintry weather for parts of the southeast.


Chuck...I'm not happy about this!
1019. Walshy
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Someone's wishing for a White Christmas.


NWS from VA to GA. Lol, I even seen north Florida mention it. Today was the day the models showed similarities. If they do not change, I don't think this will be a winter storm. A blizzard seems more likely based on the Euro. Will still have a few days so change is likely.



Good morning, who said it never rains in Southern California???

Flash Flood Warning Statement as of 5:03 AM PST on December 22, 2010

The National Weather Service in Las Vegas has issued a* Flash Flood Warning for... south central San Bernardino County in southeast California... this includes Morongo and Yucca Valley.

* Until 800 am PST

* at 455 am PST... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated very heavy rain over the warned area. Local law enforcement has reported roadway flooding at several locations across the Morongo Valley... with one roadway covered with several feet of water.

* The storm producing will continue to produce moderate to heavy rainfall across the warned area over the next several hours..

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

This is a dangerous situation. Excessive runoff from heavy rainfall will cause fast rising water and flash flooding of washes... drainage areas... highways... streets and low water crossings. When flash flooding is observed... move quickly to higher ground to escape flood waters. Do not stay in areas subject to flooding when water begins rising. It only takes 18 inches of swiftly moving water to sweep a vehicle off the Road... and less than six inches of swiftly moving water to sweep a person off their feet.

Never drive your vehicle into areas where water covers the roadway. Flood waters are usually deeper than they appear. When you approach flood waters make the smart decision... turn around... don't drown!

Report flooding to your local emergency management office or law enforcement agency and ask them to relay your report to the National Weather Service forecast office in Las Vegas.

Kennedy



1021. Walshy
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham Alabama
528 am CST Wednesday Dec 22 2010

Well all I can say is that I was skeptical on Monday morning...
hesitant on Tuesday morning...and now growing confident this
morning...that Santa may be bringing in an extra present on
Christmas.

Have decided to go full fledged with the Euro this morning as the
consistency that we look for has now continued for now 54 hours.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

You like what they did down there with the Magic? I know one thing is I'm glad to see Turkoglu back there. I think him alone makes Howard a better center.


I love it!!! I can't tell you how much Turk makes the Magic better. Yes, they have lost the last couple of games with him back but give it time because once they gel then watchout! Vince Carter had to go..
1023. Jax82
Well whoever sings the song "I'm dreaming of a White Christmas" is probably going to wake up to a heckuva lot of snow if they live in the south. But then again i've seen stuff like this get all hyped up and only see flurries, lol.
Ranfall totals of 1" is becoming likely for C FL for Sat. Night now. Question I think will be will there be severe wx because one would think with such a strong low being depicted on the Euro of 1000 milibars near Cedar Key and deepening as it crosses N FL is quite amazing.
Just think this is just the beginning of the storm parade as New Years weekend looks stormy for the SE US. THis pattern to me is looking like an El-Nino one.
Complete Update





Nobody ever minds snow on Christmas.
Have a great day everyone!
Maybe you southern snow lovers will get a repeat of the News Years Eve 1963 Snowstorm: 17" inches in Huntsville, Alabama; 15" in Meridian, Mississippi; 10.5" in Bay St. Louis; 4.5" in New Orleans.

Good times, no doubt...
Quoting Neapolitan:
Maybe you southern snow lovers will get a repeat of the News Years Eve 1963 Snowstorm: 17" inches in Huntsville, Alabama; 15" in Meridian, Mississippi; 10.5" in Bay St. Louis; 4.5" in New Orleans.

Good times, no doubt...


668. PensacolaDoug 1:54 PM GMT on October 08, 2010

PDoug wanted a repeat of Feb 1899
Quoting calusakat:


Wow you are two thirds of the way there.

I am assuming that some Psychology has rubbed of on you and that doing bookkeeping has helped as well.

Now all you have to do is delve into investing and then take the next step which is to tie Psychology so that you understand what drives investors to do what they do. Finally, using you bookkeeping skills, you should be able to see what drives investing.

Then we will talk about the rest of the story regarding how AGW is about money.



investing in what, the Green economy? i thought you were all for that.

funding science is not investing. investing funds are for generating profit. profits are dollars. the government does not get profit for granting funds for research. the personnel performing the research do not get profit either. they get a salary, and those salaries are not going to get anyone in the top tier tax bracket anytime soon.

so do tell, and provide a sliver of evidence, as to who is giving what to whom now that corrupts the whole of climate research? how again is it that AGW is a hoax perpetrated by money grubbing scientists?
Here in Macon, GA there has never been a White Christmas as far as record keeping goes. Will this be the year? Probably not, we're too far south. But places like Birmingham, Atlanta, Athens, and Greenville have a much higher chance.
Quoting Minnemike:
investing in what, the Green economy? i thought you were all for that.

funding science is not investing. investing funds are for generating profit. profits are dollars. the government does not get profit for granting funds for research. the personnel performing the research do not get profit either. they get a salary, and those salaries are not going to get anyone in the top tier tax bracket anytime soon.

so do tell, and provide a sliver of evidence, as to who is giving what to whom now that corrupts the whole of climate research? how again is it that AGW is a hoax perpetrated by money grubbing scientists?


Obviously you haven't finished reading the material and understanding it.

No worry, I'll wait until you do.


so your giving candy to kids in haiti. A place where kids are never going to see a dentist? I bet there are other things they really need. Like: food shelter water


Candy, candy, candy. boy I tell ya...
Quoting McBill:

Not my job to fix your mistakes. I suggest you try Everyday Math for Dummies.




Already have it in the library.

Actually, with that response of yours it is most likely that I did not make a math error.

Regardless, later today I will have an alternate view that is more easily understood and requires almost no math.

Anyway, thanks for causing me to take another look at my conceptualization. It will be much better this way.


Quoting RitaEvac:


Candy, candy, candy. boy I tell ya...


Canned foods, water, clothes, and hygien products? THat's what the Haitian people need.
Who in the hell is sending all that candy?
1039. Jax82
Lunar eclipse at sunrise in poland.

If the EURO is right, it's a repeat of the 1993 Superstorm. Lets not forget the EURO nailed the last 2 storms while the GFS was playing games. This is a good possibility.
Quoting Minnemike:
investing in what, the Green economy? i thought you were all for that.

funding science is not investing. investing funds are for generating profit. profits are dollars. the government does not get profit for granting funds for research. the personnel performing the research do not get profit either. they get a salary, and those salaries are not going to get anyone in the top tier tax bracket anytime soon.

so do tell, and provide a sliver of evidence, as to who is giving what to whom now that corrupts the whole of climate research? how again is it that AGW is a hoax perpetrated by money grubbing scientists?

Oh, c'mon, Mike; don't you know that gravity and relativity are also hoaxes perpetrated by money-grubbing scientists? ;-)

This person with whom you've been sparring the past few days--and running logical circles around while doing so--seems impervious to facts and reason, so I give you major props for hanging in there. It's been fun to watch, if more than a little circular and repetitious at times. But I wonder whether she knows that the National Academy of Sciences--an institution signed into existence in 1863 by Abraham Lincoln--recently stated the following:

"Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities."

Even if I didn't understand much of the science--which I do--I would be vastly more likely to give credence to highly educated, highly experienced, and highly respected scientists than I would to, say, a person outside shouting at the rain. Just makes sense, no?
1042. Jax82
Quoting reedzone:
If the EURO is right, it's a repeat of the 1993 Superstorm. Lets not forget the EURO nailed the last 2 storms while the GFS was playing games. This is a good possibility.


I'll be in central NC this weekend, hope i can make it back to FL on sunday, i like snow, but not a foot of it :)
1043. flsky
Quoting DentalPainDMD:
so your giving candy to kids in haiti. A place where kids are never going to see a dentist? I bet there are other things they really need. Like: food shelter water


I agree. I was going to say something about this yesterday, but I thought I would get jumped on all over the place. This was probably the most cost effective, but next time, maybe water and powdered milk?
I guarantee you it was left over Halloween candy that some company or people needed to get rid of.
Quoting Jax82:


I'll be in central NC this weekend, hope i can make it back to FL on sunday, i like snow, but not a foot of it :)


If the EURO is also right, we will have a severe weather outbreak. Frank Strait made a snowfall/storm map based on the 12Z EURO yesterday.. Looks very similar to the 1993 Superstorm.
Link

Quoting reedzone:


If the EURO is also right, we will have a severe weather outbreak. Frank Strait made a snowfall/storm map based on the 12Z EURO yesterday.. Looks very similar to the 1993 Superstorm.
Link
It might be a bit premature to make such a judgment, but it does look like a nasty setup.
Quoting MrstormX:

It might be a bit premature to make such a judgment, but it does look like a nasty setup.


He wasn't saying it was gonna happen.. He was just making a snowmap based on that particular run. He even mentions in his video that he made that map for someones project. It's not a prediction just yet, I thought it was interesting to show, since the EURO has nailed the past few storms.
Quoting calusakat:


Obviously you haven't finished reading the material and understanding it.

No worry, I'll wait until you do.



i responded to your next entry as i would have were i around. so tell me. show me. prove it to me just like it's been proven to you that the climate research results are a hoax designed to get money money money for the scientists performing the research and generating data.

the only single thing i saw you bring up was East Anglia bs. your inability to comprehend that episode is nothing i can affect, so i'll let that stand as your sole evidence. yet, that episode actually has ZERO correlation to your proof, or utter lack thereof, that AGW is all about the money.

futhrmore, i also noticed you had the audacity to attempt to singlehandedly, in one night, combat years of rigorous scientific research by groups of professionals who contributed to the science that was presented by Shimon Wdowinsky, feature of Dr. M's topic. your entire argument was that they are wrong based on the volume of water released by the tropical storms being minuscule in comparison to the weight and density of rock. however, it was about the SEDIMENT LOSS and REDISTRIBUTION! your entire basis for comparison and argument was flawed from the top down. THIS is a prime example of your foul disrespect and contempt for hard working scientists and the rigors of serious research.

keep up your shameful tirade so we may continue to see what motivates YOU.
I am headed to Western NC this weekend. Best to drive overnight Saturday or during the day Sunday?
Quoting reedzone:


He wasn't saying it was gonna happen.. He was just making a snowmap based on that particular run. He even mentions in his video that he made that map for someones project. It's not a prediction just yet, I thought it was interesting to show, since the EURO has nailed the past few storms.



THe EURO has been money for months now. Ever since they updated the GFS it has been terrible to rely on. The GFS did good during the hurricane season but terrible with these winter storms. Also it is the Euro that is showing El-Nino returning by Sept or Oct of 2011 and getting quite strong come next winter so let the fun begin.
Guidance has come in significantly stronger and wetter for SE TX. Strong dyanamical lift along and ahead of front.Widespread rains and storms looking likely, good we need it.
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
I am headed to Western NC this weekend. Best to drive overnight Saturday or during the day Sunday?


Saturday Night as Sunday could be bad for travel.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Guidance has come in significantly stronger and wetter for SE TX. Strong dyanamical lift along and ahead of front.Widespread rains and storms looking likely, good we need it.


I think a slight chance for severe wx will be needed in your forecast for Friday then that threat shifts to FL Saturday night Sunday morning.
Quoting Jeff9641:


I think a slight chance for severe wx will be needed in your forecast for Friday the that threat shifts to FL Saturday night Sunday morning.


Everybody on east coast to Florida should watch how things pan out in the south central plains into TX, if big storms/squall line forms you can bet the developing storm off the east coast is gonna be a doozy.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Oh, c'mon, Mike; don't you know that gravity and relativity are also hoaxes perpetrated by money-grubbing scientists? ;-)

This person with whom you've been sparring the past few days--and running logical circles around while doing so--seems impervious to facts and reason, so I give you major props for hanging in there. It's been fun to watch, if more than a little circular and repetitious at times. But I wonder whether she knows that the National Academy of Sciences--an institution signed into existence in 1863 by Abraham Lincoln--recently stated the following:

"Some scientific conclusions or theories have been so thoroughly examined and tested, and supported by so many independent observations and results, that their likelihood of subsequently being found to be wrong is vanishingly small. Such conclusions and theories are then regarded as settled facts. This is the case for the conclusions that the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities."

Even if I didn't understand much of the science--which I do--I would be vastly more likely to give credence to highly educated, highly experienced, and highly respected scientists than I would to, say, a person outside shouting at the rain. Just makes sense, no?

Oh yeah, right. Wasn't it just 25-30 years ago when scientists were buying into the goofy idea of global cooling and the coming of the next ice age before global warming became the hot topic. Sounds like a flip flop to me. Funny, cuz I don't recall scientists ever considering that the earth's gravitational pull (a law, by the way) causes things to go up instead of down. Comparing gravity with GW makes no sense.
Accuweather says the Euro is showing 1" of snow or more for the FL Panhandle Christmas night into Sunday morning with the warp around moisture.
Very dangerous storm maybe in the works and people from FL to Maine better watch this closely!
Quoting reedzone:


If the EURO is also right, we will have a severe weather outbreak. Frank Strait made a snowfall/storm map based on the 12Z EURO yesterday.. Looks very similar to the 1993 Superstorm.
Link


Well based on the that I get 3-6 inches of snow on christmas. I realize it's not a prediction of any kind though and is extremely unlikely. Though it is interesting.
Awesome pic

Thursday December 16, 2010 Spring Creek, NV (

Woke up this morning to a beautiful outdoor surprise, everything was enveloped in pogonip with a bright blue sunny sky as a backdrop. Just gorgeous!



Quoting cat5hurricane:

Oh yeah, right. Wasn't it just 25-30 years ago when scientists were buying into the goofy idea of global cooling and the coming of the next ice age before global warming became the hot topic. Sounds like a flip flop to me. Funny, cuz I don't recall scientists ever considering that the earth's gravitational pull (a law, by the way) causes things to go up instead of down. Comparing gravity with GW makes no sense.

You keep bringing up that bit about scientists "buying into" global cooling or an impending ice age 40 years ago, yet you've failed to respond--even once--to the numerous replies that explained in concise detail just why comparing that to the current warnings of global warming is really just apples and oranges. As I said: impervious to facts or reason. That's fine, but I really haven't the time to waste replying to you yet again, only to be ignored yet again, so you'll need to follow your line of "logic" with someone other than me.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Oh yeah, right. Wasn't it just 25-30 years ago when scientists were buying into the goofy idea of global cooling and the coming of the next ice age before global warming became the hot topic. Sounds like a flip flop to me. Funny, cuz I don't recall scientists ever considering that the earth's gravitational pull (a law, by the way) causes things to go up instead of down. Comparing gravity with GW makes no sense.
yeah Neapolitan, i know it's been pretty ridiculous, me and Calusakat... the thing is, there are some on here who just won't quit, day after day, posting just the most insulting insinuations. though i know it really won't stop, whether they continue or someone else just takes their place, i'm gonna stick with Calusakat for the benefit of the human species. i've got to believe we can improve, and if running around all over the place, with every wriggle, twist and turn, jumping in front of them to hold up a mirror, just whatever it takes to get them to see their own reflection, i'll do it.

so to you Cat5, i bid you well.
Quoting Jeff9641:
Very dangerous storm maybe in the works and people from FL to Maine better watch this closely!


On Saturday? Or next week?
Quoting palmbaywhoo:
I am headed to Western NC this weekend. Best to drive overnight Saturday or during the day Sunday?


I contemplated making this trip myself. Best to drive Friday. Snow should start Friday night. Could be heavy on Saturday on into the night & next day. I was up there in '93. It could be pretty shut down for travel Saturday til Monday or Tuesday, unless you have a 4WD or something.
4 day totals near Vegas



Quoting CybrTeddy:


On Saturday? Or next week?


On Saturday and then again next week. It looks as if a very active pattern is setting up for the south. Almost an El-Nino set up coming.
Quoting Skyepony:


I contemplated making this trip myself. Best to drive Friday. Snow should start Friday night. Could be heavy on Saturday on into the night & next day. I was up there in '93. It could be pretty shut down for travel Saturday til Monday or Tuesday, unless you have a 4WD or something.

No 4WD, I guess if it comes to it, a nice vacation in a hotel works too.
But it does help answer the question on whether I take the Sonata or Sante Fe
Quoting RitaEvac:
4 day totals near Vegas






LOL! On desert land yet. You can bet their is some major flooding going on there right now.
LAX nearing 8" of rain for the month of December while the average is just under 2".
Anyway why is everyone focusing on yesterday's 12Z run so much? What about the 00Z run? (I'm talking about the Euro)
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
Anyway why is everyone focusing on yesterday's 12Z run so much? What about the 00Z run? (I'm talking about the Euro)


The 00Z Euro and yesterday's 12Z Euro are identical. Very ominous to see that!
Vegas soaking, and going under


Quoting Jeff9641:


The 00Z Euro and yesterday's 12Z Euro are identical. Very ominous to see that!


Ooh.. Now I'm even more interested to see today's 12Z run.
Quoting RitaEvac:
4 day totals near Vegas



it looks like the San Bernadino area in California got up to 15 inches of rain in the last 24hrs! think we may be reading about some major floods out of SoCal in a blog coming up. don't know how to embed the image, but see Edwards AFB accumulations.
RAWS FT. YUKON AK US, Chalkyitsik, Alaska (PWS)
Updated: 36 min 16 sec ago
-36 °F
Clear
Windchill: -36 °F
Humidity: 69%
Dew Point: -42 °F
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph
Pressure: in
Visibility: 10.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Clouds: Clear -
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 464 ft

Quoting Neapolitan:

You keep bringing up that bit about scientists "buying into" global cooling or an impending ice age 40 years ago, yet you've failed to respond--even once--to the numerous replies that explained in concise detail just why comparing that to the current warnings of global warming is really just apples and oranges. As I said: impervious to facts or reason. That's fine, but I really haven't the time to waste replying to you yet again, only to be ignored yet again, so you'll need to follow your line of "logic" with someone other than me.

Maybe that's because I'm not busy getting wrapped up into an agenda that doesn't exist. It doesn't exist. Just like there was not any valid data or reason that set off the global cooling theory years ago. It's the same thing today with GW. It was frivolous and premature data back then for one to think the earth will become cold. At least that's what I think.

I don't have glaciers knocking on my door, nor are there any igloos in my neighborhood. It's no different today with global warming. And you have every right not to respond to me. Don't worry, I won't take offense to it.