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# Warmest March in Global Recordkeeping; 2016 Roars Ahead of Pack

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:39 PM GMT on April 19, 2016

March 2016 was by far the planet's warmest March since record keeping began in 1880, and was also the warmest month relative to average of any month in the historical record, said NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) on Tuesday. In the NOAA database, March 2016 came in a full 1.22°C (2.20°F) warmer than the 20th-century average for March of 12.7°C (54.9°F), as well as 0.32°C (0.58°F) above the previous record for March, set in 2015. This is a huge margin for breaking a monthly global temperature record, as they are typically broken by just a few hundredths of a degree. The margin was just a shade larger than NOAA's previous record for any month of 1.21°C (2.18°F) above average, set in February 2016. NASA also reported the warmest March in its database, with the departure from average in its analysis slightly less than that for February (1.28°C vs. 1.34°C).

The past six months (as measured by departure from average in both the NOAA and NASA databases) all set records for their respective months as the warmest since 1880. The impressive global warmth in recent months is due to the steady build-up of heat-trapping greenhouse gases due to human activities, plus a spike due to a large amount of heat being released from waters in the Eastern Pacific due to the powerful 2015-16 El Niño event. This event peaked in December, but the warmest atmospheric readings (relative to average) usually lag the peak oceanic temperatures by a few months. NOAA’s global surface temperature for the year so far (January-March 2016) is an astounding 0.29°C (0.52°F) warmer than the previous record, set in 2015 (see Figure 2).
Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for March 2016, the warmest March for the globe since record keeping began in 1880. Record warmth was observed over most land areas on Earth, with especially warm readings over much of Siberia, central Asia, northern Africa, the eastern U.S., western Canada, and Alaska. Image credit: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

Figure 2. Departure from average for the global January-through-March temperature for the years 1880 - 2016. This year has seen by far the warmest temperatures on record for each of the three months. Image credit: NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

March 2016 also marked the eleventh consecutive month that the monthly temperature record was broken and the sixteenth consecutive month (since December 2014) that the monthly global temperature ranked among the three warmest for its respective month in the NOAA database. Both global ocean and global land temperatures were the warmest on record for any March. Global satellite-measured temperatures in March 2016 for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the warmest for any March in the 38-year record, and the third-largest warm departure from average any month, according to the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH). This is the sixth consecutive month the UAH database has registered a record monthly high.

El Niño weakens to moderate strength
Strong El Niño conditions were observed during March in the equatorial Eastern Pacific, but El Niño is weakening quickly. The event peaked in strength in late November 2015, when the weekly sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the so-called Niño3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W) peaked at a record 3.1°C above normal. By the week of April 6, 2016, the Niño3.4 SST anomaly had fallen to 1.3°C above average--just below the 1.5°C threshold between "strong" and "moderate”—and it remained at that level on April 13. Temperatures averaged through the upper 300 meters (1000 feet) of the tropical Pacific have already fallen below the seasonal norm, and NOAA expects a transition to neutral conditions during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early summer 2016, with a 65% chance of a transition to La Niña conditions by the August-September-October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Figure 3. Arctic sea ice age for the week of March 4 - 10 from 1985 to 2016. The oldest ice--at least 5 years or older--is at its smallest level in the satellite record, representing only 3 percent of the total ice cover. Image Credit: NSIDC, courtesy University of Colorado Boulder, M. Tschudi, C. Fowler, J. Maslanik, R. Stewart, W. Meier.

Arctic sea ice falls to 2nd lowest March extent on record
Arctic sea ice extent during March 2016 was the second lowest in the 38-year satellite record, just above the record low set in March 2015, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). Arctic sea ice reached its annual maximum extent on March 24, 2016, and set a new record for the lowest maximum extent in the satellite record. The previous record was set just last year. However, there is little correlation between the maximum winter extent and the minimum summer extent observed in September. The key to getting a low summer ice extent is to get an earlier-than-average start to surface melting. This allows the snow to darken and expose the ice below earlier, which in turn increases the amount of solar heat absorbed, allowing more ice to melt.

Four billion-dollar weather disasters from late February through March 2016
According to the March 2016 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, three billion-dollar weather-related disasters hit the planet in March, and a third disaster from late February accumulated enough damage claims to be rated a billion-dollar disaster by the end of March. All of these disasters were severe weather outbreaks in the United States. From January - March 2016, there were seven billion-dollar weather disasters (this was updated to nine in the April Aon Benfield catastrophe report). This is well ahead of pace of five such disasters in January - March 2013--the year with the most billion-dollar weather disasters on record, with 41. Last year had only two billion-dollar weather disasters through March. Here is the tally of billion-dollar weather disasters so far in 2016:

1) Drought, Vietnam, 1/1 - 3/1, $6.7 billion, 0 killed 2) Winter Weather, Eastern U.S., 1/21 - 1/24,$2.0 billion, 58 killed
3) Winter Weather, East Asia, 1/20 - 1/26, $2.0 billion, 116 killed 4) Drought, Zimbabwe, 1/1 - 3/1,$1.6 billion, 0 killed
5) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 3/4 - 3/12, $1.25 billion, 6 killed 6) Severe Weather, Plains-Midwest-Southeast-Northeast U.S., 2/22 - 2/25,$1.2 billion, 10 killed
7) Severe Weather, U.S., 3/17 - 3/18, $1.0 billion, 0 killed And here are the three disasters from late February through the end of March 2016: Disaster 1. A powerful spring-like winter storm brought severe thunderstorms and heavy snowfall across much of the Central and Eastern U.S. from February 22 - 25, killing ten and injuring dozens more. The National Weather Service confirmed 59 tornado touchdowns, including four rated EF3. Total damage was estimated at$1.2 billion. In this image, we see damage in Waverly, Virginia a day after a tornado barreled through the small community on February 25, 2016. Tornadoes killed four people in Virginia on February 24. Image credit: Jay Paul/Getty Images.

Disaster 2. A record-strength upper-level low pressure system that stalled out over Northern Mexico and Southern Texas brought widespread severe weather and at least $1.25 billion in damage to the U.S. from March 4 - 12. In this photo, we see flood damage in Haughton, Louisiana, on March 9, 2016, after rainfall in excess of 20" in a four-day period hit the Shreveport area, bringing historic flooding. Image credit: Michael Dean Newman. Disaster 3. A stationary front draped over Texas and the Gulf Coast on March 17-18 triggered widespread severe weather. Large hail and damaging winds hit Texas, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana and Florida. The greatest damage occurred in Dallas-Fort Worth, where tennis ball-sized hail pummeled southern Tarrant County. Parts of southern Mississippi recorded baseball-sized hail. Total economic losses were expected to be$1 billion. In this photo, we see menacing mammatus clouds over Boerne Stage Field, Texas, on March 18, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer agrant414.

Disaster 4. A strong storm system tracked across central and eastern sections of the United States from March 22 - 25, injuring several people. The storm brought tornadoes, large hail, damaging straight-line winds and heavy snow to portions of the Rockies, Plains, Midwest, and Southeast. The costliest damage resulted from hail and thunderstorm winds in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Heavy snow and near hurricane-force winds caused property damage and travel delays throughout the Rockies and the High Plains. In this photo, we see an impressive shelf cloud from a thunderstorm over Tampa, Florida, on March 25, 2016. Image credit: wunderphotographer chelina.

Notable global heat and cold marks set for March 2016
Hottest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: 45.0°C (113.0°F) at Bokoro, Chad, 1 March
Coldest temperature in the Northern Hemisphere: -54.0°C (-65.2°F) at Tsetsen Uul, Mongolia, 8 March
Hottest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: 47.0°C (116.6°F) at Mardie, Australia, 3 March
Coldest temperature in the Southern Hemisphere: -72.8°C (-99.0°F) at Pole of  Inaccessibility, Antarctica, 27
March
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in March 2016
Ilorin (Nigeria) max. 40.2°C (104.4°F), 2 March
Tabligbo (Togo) max. 41.0°C [105.8°F), 2 March
Caracarai (Brazil) max. 39.6°C [103.3°F], 4 March
Kannur (India) max. 39.0°C, 8 March, followed by 39.1°C [102.4°F] on 11 March
La Macarena (Colombia) max. 39.4°C [102.9°F], 10 March
Cumaral (Colombia) max. 38.0°C [100.4°F], 10 March
Kozhikode (India) max. 38.1°C, 11 March, followed by 38.6°C [101.5°F] on 13 March
Pointe Canon (Rodrigues Island, Mauritius) max. 34.1°C [93.4°F], 18 March
Attapeu (Laos) max. 41.5°C [106.7°F], 19 March
Dawei (Myanmar) max. 39.0°C [102.2°F], 20 March
Puerto Paez (Colombia) max. 40.4°C [104.7°F], 20 March
El Guamo (Colombia) max. 41.4°C [106.5°F], 23 March
Magangue (Colombia) max. 40.2°C [104.4°F], 23 March
Ahmednagar (India) max. 44.4°C [111.9°F],  23 March
Batu Embun (Malaysia) max. 38.5°C [101.3°F], 25 March
Hanimadhoo (Maldives) max. 34.5°C [94.1°F], 30 March
(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)

Four all-time national heat records and one all-time cold record set in Jan-Mar 2016
From January through March 2016, four nations or territories tied or set all-time records for their hottest temperature in recorded history, and one (Hong Kong) has set an all-time cold temperature record. "All-time" record here refers to the warmest or coldest temperature ever reliably reported in a nation or territory. The period of record varies from country to country and station to station, but it is typically a few decades to a century or more. Most nations do not maintain official databases of extreme temperature records, so the national temperature records reported here are in many cases not official. Our data source is international weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, who maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website. If you reproduce this list of extremes, please cite Maximiliano Herrera as the primary source of the weather records. Here are 2016's all-time heat and cold records so far:

Botswana set its all-time hottest record on January 7, 2016, when the mercury hit 43.8°C (110.8°F) at Maun. The old record was set just the previous day  (January 6, 2016) with 43.5°C (110.3°F) at Tsabong. The record heat in Botswana during the first week of January was part of a remarkable heat wave that affected much of southern Africa, causing at least $250 million in drought-related damages to South Africa in the month. Mr. Herrera noted in an email to me that temperatures in South Africa at elevations between 1000 and 1600 meters were higher than any previous temperatures ever recorded at those altitudes anywhere in the world. The national heat records of Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, and Swaziland might all have fallen were it not for the lack of observing stations in the hottest areas. Lesotho has no weather stations anymore that issue the standard "synoptic" weather observations every six hours; Mozambique and Swaziland have closed all their stations in the hottest areas; and Namibia just closed its Noordower station, which was its hottest station. Wallis and Futuna Territory (France) set a new territorial heat record with 35.8°C (96.4°F) on January 10, 2016 at Futuna Airport. This is the second year in a row that Wallis and Futuna has beaten its all-time heat mark; the previous record was a 35.5°C (95.9°F) reading on January 19, 2015 at the Futuna Airport. Tonga set its all-time hottest record on February 1, 2016, when the mercury hit 35.5°C (95.9°F) at Niuafoou. Vanuatu in the South Pacific set its all-time national heat record on February 8, 2016, when the mercury hit 36.2°C (97.2°F) at Lamap Malekula. The previous record was a 35.7°C (96.3°F) reading just the previous day (February 7, 2016) at the Bauerfield Efate Airport. All seven major weather reporting stations in Vanuatu beat or tied their all-time heat records February 7 - 8, 2016. Hong Kong Territory (China) set its all-time coldest mark on January 24, 2016, when the mercury dipped to -5.7°C (21.7°F) at Tai Mo Shan. April is off to a sizzling start Widespread, intense heat has afflicted a huge swath of the tropics during the first half of April, from Central Africa to the Philippines. The heat wave across Southeast Asia has been particularly extreme--the worst there since at least 1960--with all-time records set at a number of locations. WU weather historian Chris Burt takes a closer look at the extraordinary heat of April, including two new all-time national records, in his Tuesday blog post. We'll have a complete list of all-time national records for this month in our April climate roundup, coming in mid-May. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM. ## Reader Comments  Thanks for the update Dr. Masters & Mr. Henson. Looks like we're slowly drying here in Houston.  No Surprise there, Thanks for the Updates Gentlemen....  Thank you....Warmer and warmer and accelerating.  2016 the year the Global Climate Change Forcing's bring the pain.  Thanks for the post Dr. Masters. The higher and higher we go, where we stop who the heck knows...  and there it is- I was waiting for the drippy drooly hydra... :)  Thanks doks!  Still showing a rain chance of 55% early Sat. Morning, but only forecast for .02...  Assuming no wars, invasions or tectonic disasters, I can expect to be around for the 2050's excitement. Mom's 97, and family members who didn't smoke or quit before permanent damage, tended to get within shouting distance of triple digits or go beyond. My housemate ("adopted brother") is denier-ish - but his anger is about how (he says) the panic over AGW is completely ignoring and overshadowing the smaller (and equally dangerous) local problems of children with brains affected by pollution from auto and industrial emissions in poverty zones. In a way, I see his point - it's easy to be frantic over climate effects. Not so easy to actually get yer butt out and address those less pretty social needs in neighborhoods you rush past at freeway speeds.  When one has elected officials deciding Scientific things like a city's water supply, making bad decisions based on greed, one loses walking in. As in N.C./Miss currently on Social issues.And when we have idiots running House and Senate Committees of a science nature, a la, Lamar Smith and Inhofe, we seriously lose et all.Yup...and the CO2 billows out by the giga tonnes, 24/7/365  WOW!  Earth’s hot streak continues for a record 11 monthsSeth Borenstein, Associated Press Washington — Earth’s record monthly heat streak has hit 11 months in a row — a record in itself.The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced Tuesday that March’s average global temperature of 54.9 degrees was not only the hottest March, but continues a record streak that started last May.According to NOAA climate scientist Jessica Blunden, the 11 heat records in a row smashes a streak of 10 set in 1944. Climate scientists say this is a result of El Nino, along with relentless, man-made global warming.Blunden and Michael Mann at the University of Pennsylvania worry that people will be desensitized to the drumbeat of broken records and will not realize the real affect they have on weather — for example, massive changes in what is supposed to be winter in the Arctic. Greenland had a record early start for its ice sheet melting. The Arctic had its smallest winter maximum for sea ice and it was the second smallest March snow cover for the Northern Hemisphere.“It’s becoming monotonous in a way,” said Jason Furtado, a meteorology professor at the University of Oklahoma. “It’s absolutely disturbing … We’re losing critical elements of our climate system.”March was 2.2 degrees warmer than the 20th-century average. That’s a record amount above average for any month, breaking the mark set only the month before. Africa and the Indian Ocean were especially warm, Blunden said.The first three months of the year were 2.07 degrees warmer than normal and half a degree warmer than the previous record start, set last year.Beyond NOAA, NASA, the Japanese weather agency and satellite tracking measurements have reported that March was a record hot month. Blunden said there’s a good chance April will mark a solid year of records. Eventually, she said, the record setting streak will come to an end as the El Nino dissipates.El Nino, a warming of parts of the Pacific which changes weather worldwide, tends to push global temperatures up. La Nino, its cooling flip side, is forecast for later this year.For NOAA, this is the 37th time monthly heat records have been broken since the year 2000, but it has been more than 99 years since the last time a global cold record has been set.NOAA records go back to 1880.  One last look before the NWS resets the radar estimate  "In the NOAA database, March 2016 came in a full 1.22°C (2.20°F) warmer than the previous warmest March, in 2010"This needs fixing. 1.22 C is the March anomaly, compared with the 20th century average for March, not the amount by which the previous warmest March was exceeded.  This section in blog would of been nice if in Fahrenheit degrees for us in the States... Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in March 2016Ilorin (Nigeria) max. 40.2°C, 2 MarchTabligbo (Togo) max. 41.0°C, 2 MarchCaracarai (Brazil) max. 39.6°C, 4 March Kannur (India) max. 39.0°C, 8 March, revised to 39.1°C on 11 MarchLa Macarena (Colombia) max. 39.4°C, 10 MarchCumaral (Colombia) max. 38.0°C, 10 MarchKozhikode (India) max. 38.1°C, 11 March, revised to 38.6 on 13 MarchPointe Canon (Rodrigues Island, Mauritius) max. 34.1°C, 18 March Attapeu (Laos) max. 41.5°C, 19 MarchDawei (Myanmar) max. 39.0°C, 20 MarchPuerto Paez (Colombia) max. 40.4°C, 20 MarchEl Guamo (Colombia) max. 41.4°C, 23 MarchMagangue (Colombia) max. 40.2°C, 23 MarchAhmednagar (India) max. 44.4°C, 23 MarchBatu Embun (Malaysia) max. 38.5°C, 25 MarchHanimadhoo (Maldives) max. 34.5°C, 30 March(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.)  Question & a comment.Reading & understanding temperature reporting for the recent & ongoing temperature spikes, it would be really helpful if authors were very explicit about what data is being used for comparison... that is, which "average" are you using for comparison? It seems like there are several benchmarks being used, often without attribution:NASA seems to like to compare to 1951-1980 average temperaturesclimate.gov and EPA use the "long-term average (1901-2000)IPCC says we are to limit temperature rise to less than 2C above "pre-industrial levels" (and many articles use "pre-industrial" without precisely defining the data set you are referring to; 1850 - 1900? Pre-1750?)The end result is a pretty muddled mess that makes it difficult to accurately communicate our current situation relative to historic norms and relative to critical (and ill-defined) global goals. It would be preferable, if the goal is clear communication, to pick a well-defined benchmark and use it consistently. Michael Mann rants about this subject some here: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/michael-e-mann/how- close-are-we-to-dangerous-planetary-warming_b_8841 534.htmland that was before we had two consecutive months where the global temperature exceeded 1.5C above "pre-industrial" levels.I kind of get the feeling that we will hear less and less comparisons to "pre-industrial" as it becomes more and more apparent that these goals are not going to be met. Compare it to a more recent figure. Make us feel better.  Quoting 10. Patrap: Oh boy, we must look at this blob.This blob looks interesting.  I've typed and erased three pretty good, snarky, response comments.....Conclusion: This Sucks! Let me know when the SMOD16 arrives.  Quoting 19. MonsterTrough: I've typed and erased three pretty good, snarky, response comments.....Conclusion: This Sucks! Let me know when the SMOD16 arrives. What is SMOD16?  Quoting 20. Famoguy1234: What is SMOD16? Sorry, SMOD2016Link  Ok, lets get RECON out the bullpen's and wheel's up in 30. Someone wake up Grothar, but gently..and tell him SLOWLY, ..that we're at Blob-con 3. And get some coffee brewing, fresh, will yas?  Quoting 10. Patrap: No way. I will not bite.(is there, or is there not a certain low level spin?)  A revenue neutral carbon tax has been put on this fall's ballot for Washington state. Someone named Yoram Bauman has been active in promoting the idea--which has also been publicly endorsed by Rex Tillerson of ExxonMobil fame multiple times (despite their hypocritical actions). Here's a news story on it and a quote.Bauman has become a political pariah in the state. Some mainstream environmental groups, including one ironically named Climate Solutions, are opposing the plan. The state has raised questions about the initiative's claim of "revenue neutrality." And some labor unions and business groups are either ignoring or opposing this scary-smart concept.That's the paradox of the proposal in Washington [state] and carbon taxes more broadly: Why is something so simple, cost-effective and smart seen as a political nonstarter."That's the puzzle," Bauman told me. "How do you crack the code?"  Another quote worth sharing from the same article.They prefer it [revenue neutral carbon tax] to other methods of eliminating carbon emissions, which include passing strict environmental rules for industrial polluters or subsidizing renewable energy. The latter is seen as less economically efficient than a tax. Subsidies ask the government to pick technologies that are most deserving of support. Technologies are always evolving, though, and a carbon tax lets the market decide which climate solutions are best suited for the problem.  Quoting 16. RitaEvac: This section in blog would of been nice if in Fahrenheit degrees for us in the States... Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in March 2016Ilorin (Nigeria) max. 40.2°C, 2 MarchTabligbo (Togo) max. 41.0°C, 2 MarchCaracarai (Brazil) max. 39.6°C, 4 March Kannur (India) max. 39.0°C, 8 March, revised to 39.1°C on 11 MarchLa Macarena (Colombia) max. 39.4°C, 10 MarchCumaral (Colombia) max. 38.0°C, 10 MarchKozhikode (India) max. 38.1°C, 11 March, revised to 38.6 on 13 MarchPointe Canon (Rodrigues Island, Mauritius) max. 34.1°C, 18 March Attapeu (Laos) max. 41.5°C, 19 MarchDawei (Myanmar) max. 39.0°C, 20 MarchPuerto Paez (Colombia) max. 40.4°C, 20 MarchEl Guamo (Colombia) max. 41.4°C, 23 MarchMagangue (Colombia) max. 40.2°C, 23 MarchAhmednagar (India) max. 44.4°C, 23 MarchBatu Embun (Malaysia) max. 38.5°C, 25 MarchHanimadhoo (Maldives) max. 34.5°C, 30 March(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.) Or maybe it would be nice if the States got with the program and switched to metric?  Long live Bill Gray! We lost a giant on Friday, the greatest hurricane researcher of our lifetimes and champion in the mighty struggle against those climate change hysterics by whom we now find ourselves surrounded on a daily basis. I suspect this is why this sudden and sad news went largely ignored; I submit ignoring men of reason like Dr Gray is by far the greater peril. He now joins Copernicus, Galileo, daVinci and others too voluminous to mention on that illustrious and enduring rollcall of courageous scientists who defied the forces of insensate political oppression and convention in their own times. Mazeltov, mentor and visionary!  Quoting 15. yonzabam: "In the NOAA database, March 2016 came in a full 1.22°C (2.20°F) warmer than the previous warmest March, in 2010"This needs fixing. 1.22 C is the March anomaly, compared with the 20th century average for March, not the amount by which the previous warmest March was exceeded. Fixed! Thanks for the catch, yonzabam.  Quoting 16. RitaEvac: This section in blog would of been nice if in Fahrenheit degrees for us in the States... Major weather stations that set (not tied) new all-time heat or cold records in March 2016Ilorin (Nigeria) max. 40.2°C, 2 MarchTabligbo (Togo) max. 41.0°C, 2 MarchCaracarai (Brazil) max. 39.6°C, 4 March Kannur (India) max. 39.0°C, 8 March, revised to 39.1°C on 11 MarchLa Macarena (Colombia) max. 39.4°C, 10 MarchCumaral (Colombia) max. 38.0°C, 10 MarchKozhikode (India) max. 38.1°C, 11 March, revised to 38.6 on 13 MarchPointe Canon (Rodrigues Island, Mauritius) max. 34.1°C, 18 March Attapeu (Laos) max. 41.5°C, 19 MarchDawei (Myanmar) max. 39.0°C, 20 MarchPuerto Paez (Colombia) max. 40.4°C, 20 MarchEl Guamo (Colombia) max. 41.4°C, 23 MarchMagangue (Colombia) max. 40.2°C, 23 MarchAhmednagar (India) max. 44.4°C, 23 MarchBatu Embun (Malaysia) max. 38.5°C, 25 MarchHanimadhoo (Maldives) max. 34.5°C, 30 March(Courtesy of Maximiliano Herrera.) Good idea! I've added the conversions. Thanks for the suggestion, RitaEvac.  Quoting 26. EyewallPaul: Or maybe it would be nice if the States got with the program and switched to metric? Generally yeah I agree. However on a weather map with temps plotted to the nearest whole degree, the Fahrenheit degree is more precise esp. when looking at freezing/frozen/melted precip concerns.  Stop the presses: Chris Burt has just posted the update mentioned above on local and national all-time heat records that have enveloped much of Southeast Asia this month. The heat rolls on...Extraordinary Heat Wave Sweeps Southeast Asia and Points Beyond  Quoting 27. LoneHaranguer: Long live Bill Gray! We lost a giant on Friday, the greatest hurricane researcher of our lifetimes and champion in the mighty struggle against those climate change hysterics by whom we now find ourselves surrounded on a daily basis. I suspect this is why this sudden and sad news went largely ignored; I submit ignoring men of reason like Dr Gray is by far the greater peril. He now joins Copernicus, Galileo, daVinci and others too voluminous to mention on that illustrious and enduring rollcall of courageous scientists who defied the forces of insensate political oppression and convention in their own times. Mazeltov, mentor and visionary! Largely ignored? There was a whole post here yesterday where I learned all about him. Seems like his views on AGW will just be a footnote that will end up forgotten compared to the significant contributions he made to hurricane forecasting. Seems like humanity is better off now for him existing, RIP. As far as your galileo comment is concerned, come on, all that rhetoric does is cheapen the discourse... Here is a link detailing how cliche that nonsense is.  According to CDAS data via TropicalTidbits we are moderate El Niño going (boarder) Weak El Niño as of now  GFS predicts a drop in shear in the Western Atlantic in early May...this could make the Atlantic slightly more favorable for development - maybe we will get Bonnie in a similar spot to Ana sometime in May.  Trend? What trend?(no flamingos where harmed in the production of this gif, probably)  Quoting 34. HurricaneFan: GFS predicts a drop in shear in the Western Atlantic in early May...this could make the Atlantic slightly more favorable for development - maybe we will get Bonnie in a similar spot to Ana sometime in May. I don't know that lower jets seems just a bit out of place anyway that 300+ hrs not too sure if you should trust it  ENSO neutral, here we come...  This sentence comes from the 2nd paragraph in today's blog: "The past six warmest months since 1880 (as measured by departure from average in both the NOAA and NASA databases) were the past six months."Look at the last 4 words of the sentence; did it mean to say 'were the warmest six months on record'?  Quoting 38. AldreteMichael: This sentence comes from the 2nd paragraph in today's blog: "The past six warmest months since 1880 (as measured by departure from average in both the NOAA and NASA databases) were the past six months."Look at the last 4 words of the sentence; did it mean to say 'were the warmest six months on record'? Meaning the warmest 6 months in the entire data set were the last 6 months. The wording could be a bit better, but you got the gist of it.  Quoting 38. AldreteMichael: This sentence comes from the 2nd paragraph in today's blog: "The past six warmest months since 1880 (as measured by departure from average in both the NOAA and NASA databases) were the past six months."Look at the last 4 words of the sentence; did it mean to say 'were the warmest six months on record'? Definitely could have worded that one better! Thanks for the callout, Michael. I've given it another try:"The past six months (as measured by departure from average in both the NOAA and NASA databases) all set records for their respective months as the warmest since 1880."One other bit of housekeeping: Houston Intercontinental Airport ended up measuring 9.96" on Monday, down slightly from initial reports. This puts Monday in second place for wettest day since 1889 at Houston's official recording sites. The champion remains 10.34" on June 26, 1989, recorded at IAH during the city's "first" Tropical Storm Allison.Daily rainfall records by month for Houston area  Already had loud clap of thunder in downtown from this cell, raining hard down the road, nothing in downtown  Quoting 38. AldreteMichael: This sentence comes from the 2nd paragraph in today's blog: "The past six warmest months since 1880 (as measured by departure from average in both the NOAA and NASA databases) were the past six months."Look at the last 4 words of the sentence; did it mean to say 'were the warmest six months on record'? No, the past six months have been the six highest monthly anomalies since records began, and the highest anomaly (departure from average) for any six month period.  Experiencing record temps here at 11n 61w Trinidad.Currently 35c. (approx. 96F)These types of temps have become Dry Season 'normal' recently, but they are 2-3 degrees above the long-term average. Out-of-control bush and forest fires making the air very unpleasant. Smoke and haze. Thankfully, no SAL right now.Some cloud going by south of us over the Guianas and Venezuela, but hoping for some rain seems futile right now.  Excuse me, but your frame of reference is showing. Painfully obvious where you get your information. Clearly you know nothing of Dr Gray's work. It's sad when the inculcated among us don't understand the basic principles of academic freedom. As far as cliches' go, the truth is often a bitter pill to swallow but thanks for taking the bait anyway.  Thanks for the detailed review of March!Some findings in the internet today, and welcome in the weather world of stark contrasts:Video courtesy - St Albert Firefighters, Canada (Facebook):Apr 18: "This video shows how fast and dangerous the bush fire on Thursday at big lake became in a matter of seconds. Thank you to Diane Logan for the amazing footage."Close up and more info:Video: Firefighters flee whirling 'fire tornado' in CanadaUSA Today Network Josh Hafner, 7:47 p.m. EDT April 18, 2016Apr 18: Flooding: Suardi and the difficult situation in rural regions (province of San Cristobal, northeastern Argentina)New Data Set Poised to Revolutionize Climate AdaptationClimate Central, by Eric Holthaus, published: April 17th, 2016The data set, called CHIRPS (short for "Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation With Station data") blends data from weather stations and weather satellites with extraordinary accuracy, providing a detailed record of global rainfall stretching back more than 30 years. By making it possible to compare current rainfall patterns with historical averages at the neighborhood scale for virtually the entire world, CHIRPS provides an early warning system for drought, making it possible for development agencies, insurance companies and others to more effectively activate adaptive strategies such as food aid and insurance. ...  "There has been no measurable warming since 2016!" - Denier in 2023  Quoting 22. Patrap: Ok, lets get RECON out the bullpen's and wheel's up in 30. Someone wake up Grothar, but gently..and tell him SLOWLY, ..that we're at Blob-con 3. And get some coffee brewing, fresh, will yas? Sorry, Pat. You're going to need a "bigger blob". That is what we call Class 2 embryonic blob. They look impressive but are really nothing. I don't expect to be in Blobcon 3 until at least May.  It was a good drill though.Back to your normal blogging.This was a test. If this were a actual event, you would have been bombarded by ADT Estimates, multiple Radar,sat,and other imagery.This was only a test.  From the last blog entry 190:Quoting 186. vis0:Formula for water(frozen)?...H2O cubedDIHYDROMONOXIDE?a proton, neutron and electron entered are bar...How that got into our bar I will never knowWhat did the electron say when he saw a negatron in the mirror...Together we are positive.  From the last blog entry:Quoting 178. NativeSun: There are a lot of might happen, could happen, maybe happen, in all these statements, maybe if they say will absolutely happen, then they would get a lot more people to start doing something positive in regards to the environment. Uncertainty is not your friend.  Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 53m53 minutes agoShenandoah wildfire grows to 3,000 acres, shuts down 12 trails (incl. AT) and Skyline Drive.  Quoting 45. LoneHaranguer: Excuse me, but your frame of reference is showing. Painfully obvious where you get your information. Clearly you know nothing of Dr Gray's work. It's sad when the inculcated among us don't understand the basic principles of academic freedom. As far as cliches' go, the truth is often a bitter pill to swallow but thanks for taking the bait anyway. Over my head.  Quoting 45. LoneHaranguer: Excuse me, but your frame of reference is showing. Painfully obvious where you get your information. Clearly you know nothing of Dr Gray's work. It's sad when the inculcated among us don't understand the basic principles of academic freedom. As far as cliches' go, the truth is often a bitter pill to swallow but thanks for taking the bait anyway. Dr. Gray's contrarian work regarding climate change wasn't published in academic journals and brought through the rigors of peer review. He wrote that work for right wing think thanks like Heartland and climate denial websites like ICECAP. He was a brilliant scientist in his main research field and deserves hearty recognition for that work, however, it is completely fair to contrast that with his work doubting human caused global warming that was not on the same level and not highly regarded.  Quoting 54. riverat544: From the last blog entry:Uncertainty is not your friend. are you sure about that?? 59. bwi  May melt pools on the way...  The latest from Fantala. The cyclone has weakened but might get another short shot. Anyway, the storm is forecast to linger near northern Madagascar for a while and to annoy folks down there with heavy rains:Here a report (originally in French, translated by google)Sleepless night. Residents of Sambava district could not sleep peacefully Sunday night. A downpour of 226 mm has hit the city until morning because of the very intense tropical cyclone Fantala. It has caused flooding in the slums. "The water began to seep into homes in the middle of the night. It was really terrible. It was quick to save our belongings lest they be destroyed or washed away, "said Michel detailed Rakotozafy, resident of Sambava, yesterday, reached by telephone.Fortunately, the water level has declined rapidly, causing no major damage at the site, as reported by the National Bureau of Risk Management and Disaster (BNGRC) by a statement yesterday. In other cities of the northern part of the island where Fantala lurking, no major damage was recorded until last night.Fantala continue to bring heavy rain to the north of the island. The red alert for heavy rain in the districts of Ambilobe, Antsiranana I and II, Sambava, Antalaha Vohémar and is always maintained. Similarly to the heavy swell vigilance on the East coast and Nosy-Be Helville. Yesterday cyclone was located 345 kilometers north of Antsiranana, around 15 hours, with a wind force of 240 km / h, alternated by a gust of 340 km / h. Fantala still lurk near the island until April 21 and would cause rain and strong swells.  Quoting 45. LoneHaranguer: Excuse me, but your frame of reference is showing. Painfully obvious where you get your information. Clearly you know nothing of Dr Gray's work. It's sad when the inculcated among us don't understand the basic principles of academic freedom. As far as cliches' go, the truth is often a bitter pill to swallow but thanks for taking the bait anyway. ... what?  With some hopeful news a good night from Germany!Global wind capacity to nearly double in next five years: GWECSource: Reuters - Tue, 19 Apr 2016 17:00 GMTLONDON, April 19 (Reuters) - Global wind energy capacity will nearly double in the next five years, largely led by further market growth in China, but also as a stronger industry emerges in the United States, the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) said on Tuesday. ...FEATURE - Solar panels power business surge - not just lights - in TanzaniaSource: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Tue, 19 Apr 2016 14:07 GMTAround the world, as the costs of solar energy plunge, it is increasingly being used to power industry and businesses, a huge step forward from simply supplying lighting and basic electrical power in places like Tanzania, experts say. ...Kenya aims to reverse deforestation, plant 20 million new treesMongabay, 18th April 2016 / Mike Gaworecki The campaign is part of a wider strategy by the Kenyan government to increase forest cover, restore degraded land, protect habitats for many species including endangered birds and mammals, and contribute to efforts to tackle climate change. ...  Quoting 44. pottery: Experiencing record temps here at 11n 61w Trinidad.Currently 35c. (approx. 96F)These types of temps have become Dry Season 'normal' recently, but they are 2-3 degrees above the long-term average. Out-of-control bush and forest fires making the air very unpleasant. Smoke and haze. Thankfully, no SAL right now.Some cloud going by south of us over the Guianas and Venezuela, but hoping for some rain seems futile right now. so need some rains I will see what can be done  If anything and definitely not wishing but if should anything happen to JB I sometimes wonder if some of the folks here would do a 360 and state nice pleasantries as they are doing about Dr. Gray..Seeing how Dr. Gray was downcasted here more because of his views on Climate change than praise about his research work in hurricanes just doesn't seem authentic..the insults were flying while the man was alive but now that he has passed..well..Just be real..always give your flowers to the living because they won't see them after they have passed..  Quoting 64. ncstorm: If anything and definitely not wishing but if should anything happen to JB I sometimes wonder if some of the folks here would do a 360 and state nice pleasantries as they are doing about Dr. Gray..Seeing how Dr. Gray was downcasted here more because of his views on Climate change than praise about his research work in hurricanes just doesn't seem authentic..the insults were flying while the man was alive but now that he has passed..well..Just be real..always give your flowers to the living because they won't see them after they have passed.. Couldn't agree more.  Whoa I just noticed that this post made the front page of hacker news! It is another site I love to hang out at because of the well moderated discussion, lots of awesome geeks over there too. ;)Here is a link to the discussion happening over there:https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=11528767  The past six months (as measured by departure from average in both the NOAA and NASA databases) all set records for their respective months as the warmest since 1880. Thanks; considering that the past 6 months happened to roughly coincide with Northern Hemisphere Winter (where the deep reds have been for the past several months), seems to me that there's "A Whole Lotta Ice and Permafrost Melt Going On" too.....................................  Quoting 64. ncstorm: If anything and definitely not wishing but if should anything happen to JB I sometimes wonder if some of the folks here would do a 360 and state nice pleasantries as they are doing about Dr. Gray..Seeing how Dr. Gray was downcasted here more because of his views on Climate change than praise about his research work in hurricanes just doesn't seem authentic..the insults were flying while the man was alive but now that he has passed..well..Just be real..always give your flowers to the living because they won't see them after they have passed.. I have always praised JB as a weather forecaster. Again, his foray into a field out of his area of expertise is the problem, not his main job. It is possible to praise and critique at the same time.  Quoting 49. sonofagunn: "There has been no measurable warming since 2016!" - Denier in 2023 You know, I bet this is exactly what is said too.  I would also add, before signing off for the evening, that other parts of Africa are also reeling from the drought and$ do not capture the human toll:http://www.sabc.co.za/news/tag/DroughtChild malnutrition rates are soaring in northern Somalia, where the harshest drought in decades has ravaged crops and livestock, and aid workers fear hunger will worsen with further poor rains predicted.Parts of the region are reeling from three years of failed rains which have left many families short of food, Save the Children's area representative, Mukhtar Mohumed Hassan, told the Thomson Reuters Foundation."People are saying this is the worst drought they have seen in decades," he said via Skype. "They have not seen a drought on this scale for the last 30 or 40 years."Malnutrition-related deaths have been reported in Awdal region, which borders Ethiopia, the United Nations said.See Yall Tomorrow Sometime.
 Quoting 68. weathermanwannabe: The past six months (as measured by departure from average in both the NOAA and NASA databases) all set records for their respective months as the warmest since 1880. Thanks; considering that the past 6 months happened to roughly coincide with Northern Hemisphere Winter (where the deep reds have been for the past several months), seems to me that there's  "A Whole Lotta Ice and Permafrost Melt Going On" too.....................................  o yeah it will be faster and faster
 Quoting 54. riverat544: From the last blog entry:Uncertainty is not your friend. Uncertainty should be your best friend, after all without it we would not exist
 Quoting 70. Naga5000: I have always praised JB as a weather forecaster. Again, his foray into a field out of his area of expertise is the problem, not his main job. It is possible to praise and critique at the same time. As has been noted on this site, JB holds a bachelors degree in meteorology. Holding his opinions on climate science in reverence makes about as much sense as treating someone with a pre-med degree as your oncologist.
 Quoting 70. Naga5000: I have always praised JB as a weather forecaster. Again, his foray into a field out of his area of expertise is the problem, not his main job. It is possible to praise and critique at the same time. They're like a wood pecker.Constantly pecking at something...
 Last one:Faith leaders including Dalai Lama urge global leaders to ratify COP 21 commitmentsTuesday, April 19, 2016 21:31, By Tenzin DharpoDHARAMSHALA, April 19: A coalition of religious leaders including His Holiness the Dalai Lama, and common people from around the world have urged global diplomats to ratify and put into practice their commitments from the COP 21 Paris meet citing eminent need of global cooperation in tackling the climate crisis.A statement signed by more than 80 groups and 3,600 individuals of Jewish, Buddhist, Hindu, Christian, and Muslim faith, the head of the World Council of Churches and several Catholic cardinals was initiated by pro-climate change religious organizations.The statement was submitted in New York on Monday (April 18) to the U.N. climate Chief Christiana Figueres who lauded the effort saying the initiative was "holistic, equitable, but above all, ambitious climate action." ...
 Quoting 49. sonofagunn: "There has been no measurable warming since 2016!" - Denier in 2023 It was mostly a negative PDO that lead to the "no measurable warming since 1998". Now that it seems we've shifted to a positive PDO (and associated amped-up El Ninos) i wouldn't be at all surprised if 2016's record is handily beaten before 2023. Hang on to your hats folks. With the positive PDO and accelerating loss of arctic snow/ice, the next 15 years looks to be one wild ride.Edit added graphic: PDO phases overlay on top of Jan-Mar anomalies.
 Sometimes you have to step back, evaluate what's real, and resist the easy path of being a populist:shining-light-settled-science-there-no-climate-cr isis
 Quoting 80. VibrantPlanet: It was mostly a negative PDO that lead to the "no measurable warming since 1998". Now that we've shifted to a positive PDO (and associated amped-up El Ninos) i wouldn't be at all surprised if 2016's record is handily beaten before 2023. Hang on to your hat's folks. With the positive PDO and accelerating loss of arctic snow/ice, the next 15 years looks to be one wild ride. Let's check in and see in 12 months. A lot of prognostications in years past simply haven't materialized. As an example, you can trace this blog back 10 years for just some convenient historical truth to that. You can measure the change in climate, and that is what we need to do. But so much of the effort is being put towards fear mongering prognostications and bullying those who stand to challenge or question what they are being told by calling them 'deniers' or 'tea baggers' .... basically singling them out to be 'dumb' or 'not cool' with majority of sheep who ironically 'mindlessly' follow what is popular for simple social and political acceptance.
 Quoting 81. StormHype: Sometimes you have to step back, evaluate what's real, and resist the easy path of being a populist:shining-light-settled-science-there-no-climate-cr isis What is real is James Wanliss isn't a climate scientist. Just another unpublished charlatan giving his opinion and ironically, considering the comment you just made, being a "populist" for his target audience......which is a political demographic. That site is ran by a right-wing think tank non-profit. Next time you "step back" find some science instead.
 Quoting 55. washingtonian115: Capital Weather Gang %u200F@capitalweather 53m53 minutes agoShenandoah wildfire grows to 3,000 acres, shuts down 12 trails (incl. AT) and Skyline Drive.I hope that this has nothing to do with the lady who went missing here. Sad....
 Quoting 82. StormHype: Let's check in and see in 12 months. A lot of prognostications in years past simply haven't materialized. As an example, you can trace this blog back 10 years for just some convenient historical truth to that. You can measure the change in climate, and that is what we need to do. But so much of the effort is being put towards fear mongering prognostications and bullying those who stand to challenge or question what they are being told by calling them 'deniers' or 'tea baggers' .... basically singling them out to be 'dumb' or 'not cool' with majority of sheep who ironically 'mindlessly' follow what is popular for simple social and political acceptance. Point well taken. Adjusted my comment to say "Now that it seems we've shifted to a positive PDO". In regards to the rest of your feedback, sometimes the truth happens to be popular. Thank goodness.
 Looks like more rain to come :)
 Quoting 78. washingtonian115: They're like a wood pecker.Constantly pecking at something... Yes, lots of anger and ego, but no data.
 Quoting 82. StormHype: Let's check in and see in 12 months. A lot of prognostications in years past simply haven't materialized. As an example, you can trace this blog back 10 years for just some convenient historical truth to that. You can measure the change in climate, and that is what we need to do. But so much of the effort is being put towards fear mongering prognostications and bullying those who stand to challenge or question what they are being told by calling them 'deniers' or 'tea baggers' .... basically singling them out to be 'dumb' or 'not cool' with majority of sheep who ironically 'mindlessly' follow what is popular for simple social and political acceptance. Wanna bet? Let's just exchange 2016 with 2017. And of course Mark with I and $25,000 with something I could afford. Link"I, Mark Boslough, being of sound mind, do hereby challenge any individual or organization to a$25,000 bet that global warming is real and will continue. If the climatological average global land surface temperature goes up again in 2016, setting another new record, the party that accepts my challenge must donate $25,000 to a science education nonprofit of my choice. If not, I will donate$25,000 to a nonprofit designated by the accepting party.Details are below. But it doesn’t matter. It’s a sucker bet. Everyone knows that global warming is real.Those who reject mainstream climate science have a bully problem. They talk big. They harass and threaten scientists. They publish angry anti-science blogs and vitriolic editorials. Deniers with political power issue subpoenas, file investigative demands, and even hold kangaroo hearings. The lightweights write anti-science letters to the editor of local newspapers, tweet insults, swarm people on social media, and send hate mail.They all claim with utter certainty that there is no possibility of serious risk from human-caused global warming. Yet when it comes to taking a personal risk to prove they mean it, they back down. Like all bullies, they are cowards.""Mark Boslough (MB) hereby presents a challenge as to whether the Earth’s climate will set a new record high temperature in 2016. The challenge will be settled using the NASA GISS mean global land surface temperatures for the conventional climate averaging period (defined by the World Meteorological Organization as 30 years) ending on December 31, 2016. If the global average temperature does not exceed the mean temperature for an equal period ending on the same date in any previous year for which complete data exist, MB will donate $25,000 to a nonprofit to be designated by the accepting party. Otherwise, tie accepting party will donate$25,000 to a science education nonprofit designated by MB."
 "March 2016 also marked the eleventh consecutive month that the monthly temperature record was been broken..."Is that a record for consecutive months in which the record was broken?
 Quoting 82. StormHype: You can measure the change in climate, and that is what we need to do. But so much of the effort is being put towards fear mongering prognostications and bullying those who stand to challenge or question what they are being told by calling them 'deniers' You seem unaware of the efforts of thousands of scientists worldwide to measure and understand the climate. People who deny what those scientists have been telling us for decades get the title they deserve.
 Quoting 82. StormHype: Let's check in and see in 12 months. A lot of prognostications in years past simply haven't materialized. As an example, you can trace this blog back 10 years for just some convenient historical truth to that. You can measure the change in climate, and that is what we need to do. But so much of the effort is being put towards fear mongering prognostications and bullying those who stand to challenge or question what they are being told by calling them 'deniers' or 'tea baggers' .... basically singling them out to be 'dumb' or 'not cool' with majority of sheep who ironically 'mindlessly' follow what is popular for simple social and political acceptance. I wonder what happens when one of these yahoos child, friend or neighbor says to them - you are wrong about global warming. I guess they'll rip them apart, call them names, bully them and throw their 4 year old out onto the street. God forbid someone doesn't believe in a science project.
 On my local wx.... it's been cooler than expected after a pretty heated start to April, and we've had a couple of notable cold fronts this past decade of the month to keep overnight temps in the low 70s at best - and bring some rain! Going to be very interesting to see if the cool trend continues as we see El Nino subside to neutral over the next 3 - 6 months ....
 Quoting 82. StormHype: Let's check in and see in 12 months. A lot of prognostications in years past simply haven't materialized. As an example, you can trace this blog back 10 years for just some convenient historical truth to that. You can measure the change in climate, and that is what we need to do. But so much of the effort is being put towards fear mongering prognostications and bullying those who stand to challenge or question what they are being told by calling them 'deniers' or 'tea baggers' .... basically singling them out to be 'dumb' or 'not cool' with majority of sheep who ironically 'mindlessly' follow what is popular for simple social and political acceptance. Your handle fits your demeanor. I have read this blog and the others here for a while, and never found anything that comes close to what you imply with this comment. The facts are present , and not being bullied on people. Cryosphere is melting rapidly, and while the melting at Greenland may be offset temporarily by ice gains down in Antarctica, any collapse of one of the ice shelf's would create a quick rise in global sea levels. C02 levels are rising fast, and surely will rise faster, and boost the 3% per decade ice loss in the Arctic Ocean to a faster rate..
 MODEL CONSENSUS FORECASTS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVEINTO THE NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE ONWEDNESDAY MORNING AND THEN OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING THE DAY.MODEL QPF FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS BETWEEN 1AND 2 INCHES. MODEL PW/S REACH FROM 1.5 TO 1.6 INCHES ONWEDNESDAY...SO THINK THAT LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLEDear hydrus:I have just posted a recent disco from the Houston area pro mets. Based on what they say, should I be prepared for a repeat of what happened in my city on Wednesday with even more powerful storms occurring on Thursday?In short, are the pro mets looking for another record-strength low similar to what Dr. Jeff Masters has described in his blog above?
 Quoting 55. washingtonian115: Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 53m53 minutes agoShenandoah wildfire grows to 3,000 acres, shuts down 12 trails (incl. AT) and Skyline Drive. Interesting, there's a fire burning about 45 minutes from me in Brunswick County, it's hazy as hell outside. I can smell it from indoors.
 Quoting 99. ncstorm: I actually started following Bernie Sanders campaign (voted for him as well) and was actually taking in the knowledge that was given to me by a complete stranger one day. I requested some info through his facebook page and was provided a lot of literature about GW. I went through them all and have realized there is a problem with our climate and changed my position. Out of curiosity what was the specific literature that changed your mind? I am surprised that the links and discussion on this site did not persuade you to accept the science sooner.
 Not a bad SST setup for the Atlantic, if you ask me. Looks +AMO to me.
 You know you inevitably hurt your cause if you don't seek the truth.
 I'm afraid ideology is killing pure science. (both sides of isle) !!
 pureet1948, did you suffer any damage from this week's flooding?
 Quoting 63. KEEPEROFTHEGATE: so need some rains I will see what can be done Gently, please. GENTLY !!heheheheh
 I just discovered the American Meteorological Society's Climate Journal. Lots of good, frequently updated articles here, and it's free!
 Quoting 106. BaltimoreBrian: pureet1948, did you suffer any damage from this week's flooding? Item #1: You could say that. My power was out for twelve hours. Centerpoint Energy went into my yard with state of the art equipment and fixed the problem. I'll never bad mouth them again.Item#2: It is because of this power outage that I worry about the rounds of rain predicted for Wednesday & Thursday being carbon copies of the storms that put me in the dark on Monday. (High winds, frequent lightning, the works). Item#3: Note that I have posted an excerpt from the pro met's discussion on post #98. Does their description sound like a similar system or is it a little weaker?Item #4: Can I ask anyone a hypothetical question I have about hurricanes to anyone on this blog without risk of being banned?
 Quoting 105. cajunkid: I'm afraid ideology is killing pure science. (both sides of isle) !! There is zero evidence of that. Sorry. Now, there is some interference with science by radical capitalists -in Australia, for example. However, that is the exception and is probably temporary. I can't find any example of interference in science by the "other side of the" aisle.
 Pureet1948, ask your hypothetical hurricane question. Sorry you had such a long outage--12 hours is about the point where you have to toss your food out the fridge.
 Quoting 112. BaltimoreBrian: Pureet1948, ask your hypothetical hurricane question. Sorry you had such a long outage--12 hours is about the point where you have to toss your food out the fridge. #1: I did toss my food out the fridge $300 worth. That's why I'm worried we might be back in the dark Wed. or Thu. Is this a similar weather regime?#2: How strong would a hurricane from the Gulf be to completely destroy Houston? Now, by destroy, I mean level every building, skyscrapers included. Create what some survivors might call an inland sea with the wreckage of what was once Houston, Tx. at its bottom. And leave behind a death toll of 1 million people.#3: The above is not drama, hype, or monomania. I just want answers to #1 and #2, that's all.  Houston is not on the immediate coast and is around 50 feet above sea level. A high-end Cat 5 at landfall would be rapidly weakening as it approached Houston. Houston is too high for flooding from the sea. A hurricane cannot destroy Houston but could give the city a very nasty ravage.  Quoting 114. BaltimoreBrian: Houston is not on the immediate coast and is around 50 feet above sea level. A high-end Cat 5 at landfall would be rapidly weakening as it approached Houston. Houston is too high for flooding from the sea. A hurricane cannot destroy Houston but could give the city a very nasty ravage. Very good, BaltimoreBrian. Now, what about the excerpt from the Houston NWS disco from post #98? Will Wed-Thu be anything like Sunday night-Monday. Main concern is for high winds and lightning. Whaddya think? 116. vis0  Quoting 64. ncstorm: If anything and definitely not wishing but if should anything happen to JB I sometimes wonder if some of the folks here would do a 360 and state nice pleasantries as they are doing about Dr. Gray..Seeing how Dr. Gray was downcasted here more because of his views on Climate change than praise about his research work in hurricanes just doesn't seem authentic..the insults were flying while the man was alive but now that he has passed..well..Just be real..always give your flowers to the living because they won't see them after they have passed.. You might have some that raised Dr. Gray on "ignore" as i read many praises. Yes some mentioned THE FACT that Dr. Gray had stated disbelief as to aGW and how Dr. Gray never wrote papers to be peer reviewed as he did with "Hurricane research" papers and was praised HIGHLY by some of the same scientist that disagreed as to his aGW views. Even those that posted the aGW side of DR. Gray added how Dr. Gray was respected as to TS research, so i figure you must have also passed by some comments.Try page searching as in FFOX its "ctrl F", enter GRAY then read those ENTIRE comments. ( i need to press "ctrl splchk")If we find out tomorrow that a top scientist that had breakthroughs in immunization research was a not good at figuring out a 7 day forecast. Then we see that well respect immunization scientist created a website and posted her 7 day forecasts, which is terrible. If that scientist passes on sure we should mostly praise that scientist but if someone comes along and states how god she was at predicting forecasts, its the obligation of those that know what actually happened to state it so historic reports get things right.Ones actions throughout ones life is like creating a big puzzle. In the end one might not like all of that puzzles pieces, but to make sure the puzzle is finished one has to include ALL PIECES -meThis next sentence NOT directed to Dr. Gray action. Maybe people should do good for all people so they deserve flowers.One final note, you said "be real", to me real mean real is not just the good news/things that one likes but all the news/things that one did.Actually if the skeptics or skeptic$ did 1/100th of the work Dr. Gray did as to Hurricane research, we'd be showering them with flower, they don't ....pressed flower case closed....uh, ncstorm why are you showering me those "flowers" (weed thistles falling from above)
 Quoting 113. pureet1948: #1: I did toss my food out the fridge $300 worth. That's why I'm worried we might be back in the dark Wed. or Thu. Is this a similar weather regime?#2: How strong would a hurricane from the Gulf be to completely destroy Houston? Now, by destroy, I mean level every building, skyscrapers included. Create what some survivors might call an inland sea with the wreckage of what was once Houston, Tx. at its bottom. And leave behind a death toll of 1 million people.#3: The above is not drama, hype, or monomania. I just want answers to #1 and #2, that's all. RE: #1, a well-made refrigerator should be able to hold the food safely for 24 hours at least, though you should avoid opening the fridge any more than absolutely necessary. One suggestion for peace of mind would be to go to a home improvement store and get a couple of sheets of 2 inch styrofoam insulation, cut it into pieces that can be placed against the sides, front, and top of your refrigerator, and stash them somewhere handy but out of the way. If the power goes off in a way that seems to be likely to last a while, put the foam around and on top of the refrigerator and tie it on with some light-weight cord. That will ensure that the fridge stays cold enough to preserve your food for easily a day to a day and a half, or longer. You should also keep several plastic bottles of water in the freezer, however much you have room for -- the frozen water will keep the freezer cold a lot longer than the food and the cold air from the freezer will keep the fridge cold longer.It would take a category 6 or 7 hurricane to level Houston -- but a cat 4 or 5 will do a lot of damage, though by the time it reaches the city proper it will have weakened considerably. Broken windows and roof shingle damage, plus downed trees, will be, I think, the worst you will face, but the power could be off for quite a while. A gen set big enough to keep the refrigerator and some basic fluorescent lights going, and a 5 gallon gas can full, should see you through, though.  Bill Nye's forecast challenge to Joe Bastardi (just posted today)  Quoting 102. HurricaneFan: Not a bad SST setup for the Atlantic, if you ask me. Looks +AMO to me. It's not the best. We need the subtropics to be cooler if we want to resemble the classical warm AMO pattern. That temperature contrast will also focus the instability farther south. It's not necessarily a bad pattern either, though.  Quoting 114. BaltimoreBrian: Houston is not on the immediate coast and is around 50 feet above sea level. A high-end Cat 5 at landfall would be rapidly weakening as it approached Houston. Houston is too high for flooding from the sea. A hurricane cannot destroy Houston but could give the city a very nasty ravage. There have been Category 3 hurricanes up here where I live (albeit very rare). I'd guess that a Category 5 on approach to the coast would be around that intensity as it moved into the Houston area. A full-fledged Category 3 in Houston would be absolutely terrible due to the numerous high-rise buildings. Remember Alicia's glass in the street deal? And Alicia was much weaker. 121. OKsky  Quoting 118. VibrantPlanet: Bill Nye's forecast challenge to Joe Bastardi (just posted today) Haha Awesome.. sticking it to them James Randi style. :D  Quoting 104. BaltimoreBrian: This Baltimore 20-year-old just won a huge international award for stopping a giant trash incinerator Great story - thanks for the link.  RE: #2:.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/AVIATION...LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING QUICKLYNORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HUBS. UTS/CLL MAY STILL HAVE AN HOUROR SO OF VCSH CONDITIONS. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THISEVENING BUT IT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. LL COOL AND ST DECKSHOULD FORM BETWEEN 07Z-10Z - MVFR BUT MAY DIP INTO IFR BRIEFLYNEAR SUNRISE...MUCH EARLIER NEAR THE COAST. WATCHING S/W SWINGINGAROUND INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST...THIS FEATURESHOULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLYTIMING IT OUT FOR 17-22Z TIME FRAME FOR HOUSTON HUBS. SOUNDINGSARE PLENTY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENOUGH AND WILL PROBABLY SEE ATLEAST SHOWERS FIRST BEFORE LIFT FROM S/W ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDSSHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.BaltimoreBrian, am I imagining things or does this indeed sound like an instant replay of the events of Monday, April 18, falling on Wednesday?  Quoting 118. VibrantPlanet: Bill Nye's forecast challenge to Joe Bastardi (just posted today) Those charts Bastardi used highlight why I come down so hard on him. Either he is woefully ignorant or completely disingenuous. 125. JRRP7  Another daily RECORD HIGH of 78° here in Acme wa, record was 73°. Tomorrow will most likely be the third straight record breaker in a row, forcast is for 82°. To bad the weekend weather is back to normal rainy 43-55° :o  http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php?topic=149 3.msg74294;topicseen#msg74294April about to hit the record books with some jaw dropping anomalies ramping up with the northern hemisphere in the coming days. This is horrible to have these events so early in the season.  If you need help funding this, I would like a piece of this action. Thanks!Quoting 90. wartsttocs: Wanna bet? Let's just exchange 2016 with 2017. And of course Mark with I and$25,000 with something I could afford. Link"I, Mark Boslough, being of sound mind, do hereby challenge any individual or organization to a $25,000 bet that global warming is real and will continue. If the climatological average global land surface temperature goes up again in 2016, setting another new record, the party that accepts my challenge must donate$25,000 to a science education nonprofit of my choice. If not, I will donate $25,000 to a nonprofit designated by the accepting party.Details are below. But it doesn’t matter. It’s a sucker bet. Everyone knows that global warming is real.Those who reject mainstream climate science have a bully problem. They talk big. They harass and threaten scientists. They publish angry anti-science blogs and vitriolic editorials. Deniers with political power issue subpoenas, file investigative demands, and even hold kangaroo hearings. The lightweights write anti-science letters to the editor of local newspapers, tweet insults, swarm people on social media, and send hate mail.They all claim with utter certainty that there is no possibility of serious risk from human-caused global warming. Yet when it comes to taking a personal risk to prove they mean it, they back down. Like all bullies, they are cowards.""Mark Boslough (MB) hereby presents a challenge as to whether the Earth’s climate will set a new record high temperature in 2016. The challenge will be settled using the NASA GISS mean global land surface temperatures for the conventional climate averaging period (defined by the World Meteorological Organization as 30 years) ending on December 31, 2016. If the global average temperature does not exceed the mean temperature for an equal period ending on the same date in any previous year for which complete data exist, MB will donate$25,000 to a nonprofit to be designated by the accepting party. Otherwise, tie accepting party will donate $25,000 to a science education nonprofit designated by MB."  The SPC is a good place to check on upcoming severe weather areas. Not always perfect, but will usually gives you a general area where severe weather may occur.Quoting 123. pureet1948: RE: #2:.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016/AVIATION...LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING QUICKLYNORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HUBS. UTS/CLL MAY STILL HAVE AN HOUROR SO OF VCSH CONDITIONS. EXPECTING SKIES TO CLEAR OUT EARLY THISEVENING BUT IT WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED. LL COOL AND ST DECKSHOULD FORM BETWEEN 07Z-10Z - MVFR BUT MAY DIP INTO IFR BRIEFLYNEAR SUNRISE...MUCH EARLIER NEAR THE COAST. WATCHING S/W SWINGINGAROUND INTO THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER TROUGH OUT WEST...THIS FEATURESHOULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CURRENTLYTIMING IT OUT FOR 17-22Z TIME FRAME FOR HOUSTON HUBS. SOUNDINGSARE PLENTY UNSTABLE AND MOIST ENOUGH AND WILL PROBABLY SEE ATLEAST SHOWERS FIRST BEFORE LIFT FROM S/W ARRIVES. GUSTY WINDSSHOULD ACCOMPANY THE STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.BaltimoreBrian, am I imagining things or does this indeed sound like an instant replay of the events of Monday, April 18, falling on Wednesday?  Kevin Anderson was given the journalistic treatment in a Guardian article titled "Is it possible to reduce CO2 emissions and grow the global economy?" The article takes an optimistic view of the situation and discounts the comments they sought from Anderson. Anderson tweeted the full text of what he told the Guardian.The last line is a retort Anderson makes to the article labeling him a pessimist.  Seychelles Meteorological ServicesTropical Cyclone Advisory #37Hurricane WarningCYCLONE TROPICAL FANTALA (08-20152016)10:00 AM RET April 20 2016====================================East of Farquhar AtollWest of AgalegaAt 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Fantala (965 hPa) located at 10.5S 52.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 85 knots with gusts of 120 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knotsDvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D0.5/6 HRSForecast and Intensity---------------------------12 HRS: 11.5S 53.9E - 85 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)24 HRS: 12.4S 54.8E - 85 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)48 HRS: 13.3S 55.2E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)72 HRS: 12.4S 53.6E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)Additional Information=================Fantala is still intensifying. 3 hours mean raw DT is at 5.3-5.4 since 0100z. The overall presentation is impressive again since this morning with a gradually improving eye pattern (although somewhat ragged at times). Present intensity analysis is mainly based on this manual Dvorak analysis. Advance Dvorak Technique is stronger at 5.9 but AMSU and SSMIS estimates of this morning are lower at 85 knots 1-min (75 kt 10-min).Until Thursday, Fantala's track will be steered by two atmospheric patterns: the near equatorial ridge building in its northeast and a wide mid-latitudes trough coming from the southwest. Under this double influence, the predictability of the east southeastward track is quite high and the model guidance is thus in agreement. From Thursday evening, none of the available models allow Fantala to reach the trough, which is an exit door towards the mid-latitudes. A new high geopotential cell following the trough is forecast to settle over south of Madagascar and progressively extend northward. Fantala should slow again and Friday, it could track northwestward, steered by this wide ridge in its southwest. Then, until the end of the forecast period, the system is likely to be steered by the high subtropical cell in the low and mid troposphere, and should keep on a west northwestward to northwestward track. The current track forecast is mostly an update of the previous one.Fantala could become an intense tropical cyclone later today...the only limiting factor is that the system is currently passing over its position 3 days ago and Fantala is expected to stay within the potentially affected cooled area associated during the next 24-48 hours. So uncertainty on the effect of this cooling path brings uncertainty in the short range intensity forecast.With a northeast slow motion expected Friday and somewhat less conducive atmospheric conditions with some likely northeasterly constraint, a weakening trend is anticipated. After that time, the intensity should stay more or less the same during the new northwestwards track.  Can all of you, who are, or who profess to be, so smart and learned about why the Earth's surface is warming, please explain this to me (or, more correctly, explain it away for me).Premise, I believe the Earth's surface is warming, but my wonderment is to *exactly* why. Most all of you, it seems, state that it is totally, or almost totally, caused by fossil fuel burning and other acts of man (rain forest burning, etc.). Still, it seems to be increasing even faster than previous greenhouse theories expected, or predicted.I'm thinking it's something different. I'm thinking, for whatever reason (increased radioactive interactions, solar and universe-driven magnetic/gravitational fluxes, other unknown natural processes), that the interior of the earth is heating up, both the inner core and the mantle (keep in mind that the Earth's crust, the layer just above the mantle, is as little as three miles thick at the lowest portions of the ocean). Here is a normal description of the Earth's mantle..."In the mantle, temperatures range between 500 to 900 C. (932 to 1,652 F.) at the upper boundary with the crust... to over 4,000 C. (7,230 F.) at the boundary with the core."Please note that these are general temperature readings for the mantle, with temperature readings for the Earth's core being even more general, vague, and random (and even hotter).All that said, is there any accurate, complete, and up-to-date measurement of the "total temperature" of the mantle from month-to-month available? And if so, what is it, and how has it changed since, say, 1980? Is it going up or down? I mean, if the crust is heating up, in toto, from say, 940 degrees, F., to 960 degrees F., over all that time, isn't it logical to assume the mantle is simply like a huge, thin hotplate under the oceans, and that this basically immeasurable 20 degree change in the overall mantle's temperature might/does radiate some of that temperature through the 3-20 miles of Earth's crust and into the oceans (picture various thicknesses of frying pans as equivalent to the Earth's crust).For example, what would happen if my "theory" were true? Well, the oceans would heat up as the crust slowly heats up, and said new/added heat would then be transferred to the atmosphere. Then, global temperatures would increase (with land ice melting and thermal expansion raising sea level rates) as it has been. There would be a more rapid expansion of the Earth's crust (as added heat tends to do that to systems and structures), which could raise sea levels some, and would probably cause increased earthquake and volcanic activity along more "crustal" faultlines (and more, new submarine volcanos, which automatically raise sea levels a small bit, too).Are any of these geological things happening now, or happening more than they did 50 years ago? I don't know, but it certainly seems so to me. I do know that almost certainly anthropogenic global warming is not the cause of any of the earthquakes, volcanos, and the magnetic pole drift that we've been seeing for the past 10 years.So, as I feel more strongly that "interior planet heating" is more responsible for global warming than anything mankind has done (and possibly the cause of previous eras when the Earth was warmer than it is now, and given, it seems, that all interior planet temperatures, according to the literature, are "estimates"), I'm asking any of you to prove to me that my theory is *incorrect* (which you cannot prove simply by saying your anthropogenic "theory" certainly *appears* more correct).And extra points if you do not use only NASA data to prove that, as both their accuracy and veracity are more than a bit circumspect in my mind, as buying everything they feed us seems more than a bit naive, doesn't it? I mean, the Government never has an agenda, does it?It might require some real work on all of your part(s) to do so, but until anyone does, please don't expect me to simply buy that man-made greenhouse gases are the root of all evil in our hotter world.I think this is a real and serious and "debateable" question, so if you simply want to dismiss it by calling me a JB-like Luddite, please take such "explanations" somewhere else, as Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson are obviously attempting to run a much classier, and logic-based, blog than that. (Note: I know it's very late to post something like this and to get it read (it's after 4 AM here, EDT), so I'll probably be posting this again tomorrow afternoon, just to see if I can get any factually-based response. I mean it... I have no access to Earth's crust and mantle temperatures over the past 20-50 years, and frankly, that's about the only way anyone is going to be able to categorically prove to me that I can't be right in this. I'm not saying my "theory" is right, mind you... only that I'm wondering, because it explains so very many things, why it can't *be* right).Jo  Quoting 9. nonblanche: My housemate is denier-ish - but his anger is about how (he says) the panic over AGW is completely ignoring and overshadowing the smaller (and equally dangerous) local problems of children with brains affected by pollution from auto and industrial emissions in poverty zones. In a way, I see his point - it's easy to be frantic over climate effects. Not so easy to actually get yer butt out and address those less pretty social needs in neighborhoods you rush past at freeway speeds. That's a bit skew. Looking at the big picture shouldn't stop anyone from doing the right thing on his home turf. The average brain is surely capable of multitasking.  The West antarctic cold blob comes up with a record, too - a telling sign for the increasing meltwater runoff there. Does it get the attention it deserves?  Quoting 132. flibinite: Can all of you, who are, or who profess to be, so smart and learned about why the Earth's surface is warming, please explain this to me (or, more correctly, explain it away for me).Premise, I believe the Earth's surface is warming, but my wonderment is to *exactly* why. Most all of you, it seems, state that it is totally, or almost totally, caused by fossil fuel burning and other acts of man (rain forest burning, etc.). Still, it seems to be increasing even faster than previous greenhouse theories expected, or predicted.I'm thinking it's something different. I'm thinking, for whatever reason (increased radioactive interactions, solar and universe-driven magnetic/gravitational fluxes, other unknown natural processes), that the interior of the earth is heating up, both the inner core and the mantle (keep in mind that the Earth's crust, the layer just above the mantle, is as little as three miles thick at the lowest portions of the ocean). Here is a normal description of the Earth's mantle..."In the mantle, temperatures range between 500 to 900 C. (932 to 1,652 F.) at the upper boundary with the crust... to over 4,000 C. (7,230 F.) at the boundary with the core."Please note that these are general temperature readings for the mantle, with temperature readings for the Earth's core being even more general, vague, and random (and even hotter).All that said, is there any accurate, complete, and up-to-date measurement of the "total temperature" of the mantle from month-to-month available? And if so, what is it, and how has it changed since, say, 1980? Is it going up or down? I mean, if the crust is heating up, in toto, from say, 940 degrees, F., to 960 degrees F., over all that time, isn't it logical to assume the mantle is simply like a huge, thin hotplate under the oceans, and that this basically immeasurable 20 degree change in the overall mantle's temperature might/does radiate some of that temperature through the 3-20 miles of Earth's crust and into the oceans (picture various thicknesses of frying pans as equivalent to the Earth's crust).For example, what would happen if my "theory" were true? Well, the oceans would heat up as the crust slowly heats up, and said new/added heat would then be transferred to the atmosphere. Then, global temperatures would increase (with land ice melting and thermal expansion raising sea level rates) as it has been. There would be a more rapid expansion of the Earth's crust (as added heat tends to do that to systems and structures), which could raise sea levels some, and would probably cause increased earthquake and volcanic activity along more "crustal" faultlines (and more, new submarine volcanos, which automatically raise sea levels a small bit, too).Are any of these geological things happening now, or happening more than they did 50 years ago? I don't know, but it certainly seems so to me. I do know that almost certainly anthropogenic global warming is not the cause of any of the earthquakes, volcanos, and the magnetic pole drift that we've been seeing for the past 10 years.So, as I feel more strongly that "interior planet heating" is more responsible for global warming than anything mankind has done (and possibly the cause of previous eras when the Earth was warmer than it is now, and given, it seems, that all interior planet temperatures, according to the literature, are "estimates"), I'm asking any of you to prove to me that my theory is *incorrect* (which you cannot prove simply by saying your anthropogenic "theory" certainly *appears* more correct).And extra points if you do not use only NASA data to prove that, as both their accuracy and veracity are more than a bit circumspect in my mind, as buying everything they feed us seems more than a bit naive, doesn't it? I mean, the Government never has an agenda, does it?It might require some real work on all of your part(s) to do so, but until anyone does, please don't expect me to simply buy that man-made greenhouse gases are the root of all evil in our hotter world.I think this is a real and serious and "debateable" question, so if you simply want to dismiss it by calling me a JB-like Luddite, please take such "explanations" somewhere else, as Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson are obviously attempting to run a much classier, and logic-based, blog than that. (Note: I know it's very late to post something like this and to get it read (it's after 4 AM here, EDT), so I'll probably be posting this again tomorrow afternoon, just to see if I can get any factually-based response. I mean it... I have no access to Earth's crust and mantle temperatures over the past 20-50 years, and frankly, that's about the only way anyone is going to be able to categorically prove to me that I can't be right in this. I'm not saying my "theory" is right, mind you... only that I'm wondering, because it explains so very many things, why it can't *be* right).Jo As much as this 'theory' would be correct, carbon dioxide is lesser a GHG. If your 'theory' explains all GW, then carbon dioxide would be no GHG at all. Explain that.  Quoting 134. EmsiNasklug: The West antarctic cold blob comes up with a record, too - a telling sign for the increasing meltwater runoff there. Does it get the attention it deserves? It will, but not near the attention there paying to the warmer sea water underneath the ice shelves. The truth is that if the ice shelves themselves all broke off, sea level wouldn't rise that much due to the water they already displace, on the other hand, when ice shelves break apart, it allows all the glacial and ice melt to run off the continent...Which would indeed have a major impact on the worlds oceans.  Quoting 132. flibinite: Jo Well you can't very well just bring your random theory to the table, and then say "show me the evidence", or even "prove me wrong". It's you who are responsible for bringing whatever evidence you have to support your claim. I'm certainly willing to entertain your theory, I mean it's an interesting idea, but saying that "you feel it's true", and it "seems to you" is unfortunately meaningless from a scientific point of view. Also, since there is already an established theory with plenty of supporting evidence which accounts for the warming, it's a little redundant to say "well, maybe it's THIS!", unless you have some very compelling evidence.  Quoting 132. flibinite: I have no access to Earth's crust and mantle temperatures over the past 20-50 years, and frankly, that's about the only way anyone is going to be able to categorically prove to me that I can't be right in this. I'm not saying my "theory" is right, mind you... only that I'm wondering, because it explains so very many things, why it can't *be* right).Jo You do know, don't you, that the deep ocean is colder than the ocean surface? That fact alone discounts your...hypothesis. Your "for whatever reason" is priceless. If you can provide no reason for the Earth's interior to be heating and no evidence that it is doing so, then you are pretty much just saying stuff.  Quoting 132. flibinite: Can all of you, who are, or who profess to be, so smart and learned about why the Earth's surface is warming, please explain this to me (or, more correctly, explain it away for me).Premise, I believe the Earth's surface is warming, but my wonderment is to *exactly* why. Most all of you, it seems, state that it is totally, or almost totally, caused by fossil fuel burning and other acts of man (rain forest burning, etc.). Still, it seems to be increasing even faster than previous greenhouse theories expected, or predicted.I'm thinking it's something different. I'm thinking, for whatever reason (increased radioactive interactions, solar and universe-driven magnetic/gravitational fluxes, other unknown natural processes), that the interior of the earth is heating up, both the inner core and the mantle (keep in mind that the Earth's crust, the layer just above the mantle, is as little as three miles thick at the lowest portions of the ocean). Here is a normal description of the Earth's mantle..."In the mantle, temperatures range between 500 to 900 C. (932 to 1,652 F.) at the upper boundary with the crust... to over 4,000 C. (7,230 F.) at the boundary with the core."Please note that these are general temperature readings for the mantle, with temperature readings for the Earth's core being even more general, vague, and random (and even hotter).All that said, is there any accurate, complete, and up-to-date measurement of the "total temperature" of the mantle from month-to-month available? And if so, what is it, and how has it changed since, say, 1980? Is it going up or down? I mean, if the crust is heating up, in toto, from say, 940 degrees, F., to 960 degrees F., over all that time, isn't it logical to assume the mantle is simply like a huge, thin hotplate under the oceans, and that this basically immeasurable 20 degree change in the overall mantle's temperature might/does radiate some of that temperature through the 3-20 miles of Earth's crust and into the oceans (picture various thicknesses of frying pans as equivalent to the Earth's crust).For example, what would happen if my "theory" were true? Well, the oceans would heat up as the crust slowly heats up, and said new/added heat would then be transferred to the atmosphere. Then, global temperatures would increase (with land ice melting and thermal expansion raising sea level rates) as it has been. There would be a more rapid expansion of the Earth's crust (as added heat tends to do that to systems and structures), which could raise sea levels some, and would probably cause increased earthquake and volcanic activity along more "crustal" faultlines (and more, new submarine volcanos, which automatically raise sea levels a small bit, too).Are any of these geological things happening now, or happening more than they did 50 years ago? I don't know, but it certainly seems so to me. I do know that almost certainly anthropogenic global warming is not the cause of any of the earthquakes, volcanos, and the magnetic pole drift that we've been seeing for the past 10 years.So, as I feel more strongly that "interior planet heating" is more responsible for global warming than anything mankind has done (and possibly the cause of previous eras when the Earth was warmer than it is now, and given, it seems, that all interior planet temperatures, according to the literature, are "estimates"), I'm asking any of you to prove to me that my theory is *incorrect* (which you cannot prove simply by saying your anthropogenic "theory" certainly *appears* more correct).And extra points if you do not use only NASA data to prove that, as both their accuracy and veracity are more than a bit circumspect in my mind, as buying everything they feed us seems more than a bit naive, doesn't it? I mean, the Government never has an agenda, does it?It might require some real work on all of your part(s) to do so, but until anyone does, please don't expect me to simply buy that man-made greenhouse gases are the root of all evil in our hotter world.I think this is a real and serious and "debateable" question, so if you simply want to dismiss it by calling me a JB-like Luddite, please take such "explanations" somewhere else, as Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson are obviously attempting to run a much classier, and logic-based, blog than that. (Note: I know it's very late to post something like this and to get it read (it's after 4 AM here, EDT), so I'll probably be posting this again tomorrow afternoon, just to see if I can get any factually-based response. I mean it... I have no access to Earth's crust and mantle temperatures over the past 20-50 years, and frankly, that's about the only way anyone is going to be able to categorically prove to me that I can't be right in this. I'm not saying my "theory" is right, mind you... only that I'm wondering, because it explains so very many things, why it can't *be* right).Jo Greetings jo.. Your theory, while seemingly feasible , is not the problem. The Earths core and mantle temperature has been the same for a very long time. What happens at the surface " crust " has more to do with plate tectonics, earthquakes, and volcanoes, and while volcanoes can affect the worlds climate significantly, the Earths mantle temp has very little if any impact on the climate.If you want a significant theory that points to the seriousness about what is happening, complex math, Cryosphere observations, core and atmospheric readings, and huge amounts of research on Milankovitch Cycles suggest had we not put so much C02 into the atmosphere, we would be on a cooling trend, not a warmer one. With that being said, it is a game of Russian roulette, and doing something to clean things up is a definite step in the right direction....Besides, its hard to be cool in a really hot and dirty place..:)  El Hierro, the Canary Island aiming for 100% clean energyThe Local (Spain), Published: 20 Apr 2016 08:56 GMT 02:00 Pines and pineapples vie for space on El Hierro, a tiny rugged Canary island that has gone all out to produce all its electricity from renewables, attracting global attention in the process. ...Another nice idea :-)Shall I compare thee to a summer's day?BBC video, 19 April 2016 Last updated at 11:09"When shall we three meet again in thunder, lightning, or in rain? When the hurlyburly's done, When the battle 's lost and won".As part of the BBC's Shakespeare Festival, BBC Weather's Alex Deakin presents a weather forecast like no other... inspired by the words, poems and plays of William Shakespeare. But before you reach for your brolly, please note this is not a real forecast.How many quotes can you spot?  still a bunch of time until the heart of cv season. there will be changes to water temps pattern. bet the home insurances companies are adding hundreds on premiums getting ready for this season.  CO2 levels are today, among the lowest in the past 600 million years.CO2 levels were higher than today in 85% of the past 600 million years.CO2 levels were as much as 20 times higher in the geological past.CO2 levels were at least 6 times higher than today in the dinosaur period.There were three ice ages with more CO2 than today, one had fifteen times more.CO2 has never been observed in the geological record to be a driver of the climate, even when levels were significantly higher than today.CO2, by itself, can not cause much warming. For there to be dangerous warming, other things must occur, which would accelerate the warming, called positive feedbacks. The most likely is increased atmospheric water vapor. Positive feedbacks have not been observed to exist in the past and when CO2 levels were signficiantly higher than today. Atmospheric humidity is also actually in decline.  Quoting 136. hydrus: It will, but not near the attention there paying to the warmer sea water underneath the ice shelves. The truth is that if the ice shelves themselves all broke off, sea level wouldn't rise that much due to the water they already displace, on the other hand, when ice shelves break apart, it allows all the glacial and ice melt to run off the continent... Which would indeed have a major impact on the worlds oceans. Yes, the NASA has produced a brilliant video on that issue: Antarctica Meltwater Pulse 2BBut I'm also wondering what it might do to the system of ocean currents. (It's terribly close to where I like to go for a swim in the south atlantic swell ... )  Quoting 132. flibinite: Are any of these geological things happening now, or happening more than they did 50 years ago? I don't know, but it certainly seems so to me.SEEMS SO? You are basing a scientific theory on SEEMS SO? Is there any actual data that there are more earthquakes and/or volcanic activity in the last 12 months than normal? If so, is the difference statistically significant or simply the expected fluctuation. The only increase in seismic activity I am aware of (and it is highly significant) is in Oklahoma and it's very clear that is related to hydrofracking.Quoting 132. flibinite: I'm asking any of you to prove to me that my theory is *incorrect* (which you cannot prove simply by saying your anthropogenic "theory" certainly *appears* more correct).I believe global warming is caused by flying pigs generating methane in the upper reaches of the atmosphere. I have no data to support that, but that is immaterial because YOU must prove me wrong. That's how science works, isn't it?Quoting 132. flibinite: And extra points if you do not use only NASA data to prove that, as both their accuracy and veracity are more than a bit circumspect in my mind, as buying everything they feed us seems more than a bit naive, doesn't it? I mean, the Government never has an agenda, does it?Then it would be fair to demand that you prove your geological hypothesis without government data. Which would be quite a task, since most geological phenomena are tracked largely by government organizations. But you should give it a shot, certainly.  s. pac td 17f sure is wandering around. worth keeping an eye on  Quoting 118. VibrantPlanet: Bill Nye's forecast challenge to Joe Bastardi (just posted today) Is this guy for real? Of course 2016 will be one of the warmest years recorded in our very short span of accurate global temps. no life on the planet for billions of years, but their also has been life and CO2 and O2 for billions of years also. What do you expect the Global Temps to do with a warm PDO, and AMO, and not lets forget a very strong Super Godzilla Nino. Lets see what the temps do when all this reverses, with a cold AMO, PDO, and a Super Mothra La Nina. It's good to see some countries are starting to take steps to help replant the trees and other vegetation, that has been destroyed in the countries rainforest, as I believe the more vegetation you destroy, the less CO2 will be absorbed by the vegetation, and please lets not forget what overpopulation does to CO2 levels. I just hope JB sends a response to this mans challenge, not the money part, as that is a no win scenario for this a few more years.  Quoting 132. flibinite: Can all of you, who are, or who profess to be, so smart and learned about why the Earth's surface is warming, please explain this to me (or, more correctly, explain it away for me).Premise, I believe the Earth's surface is warming, but my wonderment is to *exactly* why. Most all of you, it seems, state that it is totally, or almost totally, caused by fossil fuel burning and other acts of man (rain forest burning, etc.). Still, it seems to be increasing even faster than previous greenhouse theories expected, or predicted.I'm thinking it's something different. I'm thinking, for whatever reason (increased radioactive interactions, solar and universe-driven magnetic/gravitational fluxes, other unknown natural processes), that the interior of the earth is heating up, both the inner core and the mantle (keep in mind that the Earth's crust, the layer just above the mantle, is as little as three miles thick at the lowest portions of the ocean). Here is a normal description of the Earth's mantle..."In the mantle, temperatures range between 500 to 900 C. (932 to 1,652 F.) at the upper boundary with the crust... to over 4,000 C. (7,230 F.) at the boundary with the core."Please note that these are general temperature readings for the mantle, with temperature readings for the Earth's core being even more general, vague, and random (and even hotter).All that said, is there any accurate, complete, and up-to-date measurement of the "total temperature" of the mantle from month-to-month available? And if so, what is it, and how has it changed since, say, 1980? Is it going up or down? I mean, if the crust is heating up, in toto, from say, 940 degrees, F., to 960 degrees F., over all that time, isn't it logical to assume the mantle is simply like a huge, thin hotplate under the oceans, and that this basically immeasurable 20 degree change in the overall mantle's temperature might/does radiate some of that temperature through the 3-20 miles of Earth's crust and into the oceans (picture various thicknesses of frying pans as equivalent to the Earth's crust).For example, what would happen if my "theory" were true? Well, the oceans would heat up as the crust slowly heats up, and said new/added heat would then be transferred to the atmosphere. Then, global temperatures would increase (with land ice melting and thermal expansion raising sea level rates) as it has been. There would be a more rapid expansion of the Earth's crust (as added heat tends to do that to systems and structures), which could raise sea levels some, and would probably cause increased earthquake and volcanic activity along more "crustal" faultlines (and more, new submarine volcanos, which automatically raise sea levels a small bit, too).Are any of these geological things happening now, or happening more than they did 50 years ago? I don't know, but it certainly seems so to me. I do know that almost certainly anthropogenic global warming is not the cause of any of the earthquakes, volcanos, and the magnetic pole drift that we've been seeing for the past 10 years.So, as I feel more strongly that "interior planet heating" is more responsible for global warming than anything mankind has done (and possibly the cause of previous eras when the Earth was warmer than it is now, and given, it seems, that all interior planet temperatures, according to the literature, are "estimates"), I'm asking any of you to prove to me that my theory is *incorrect* (which you cannot prove simply by saying your anthropogenic "theory" certainly *appears* more correct).And extra points if you do not use only NASA data to prove that, as both their accuracy and veracity are more than a bit circumspect in my mind, as buying everything they feed us seems more than a bit naive, doesn't it? I mean, the Government never has an agenda, does it?It might require some real work on all of your part(s) to do so, but until anyone does, please don't expect me to simply buy that man-made greenhouse gases are the root of all evil in our hotter world.I think this is a real and serious and "debateable" question, so if you simply want to dismiss it by calling me a JB-like Luddite, please take such "explanations" somewhere else, as Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson are obviously attempting to run a much classier, and logic-based, blog than that. (Note: I know it's very late to post something like this and to get it read (it's after 4 AM here, EDT), so I'll probably be posting this again tomorrow afternoon, just to see if I can get any factually-based response. I mean it... I have no access to Earth's crust and mantle temperatures over the past 20-50 years, and frankly, that's about the only way anyone is going to be able to categorically prove to me that I can't be right in this. I'm not saying my "theory" is right, mind you... only that I'm wondering, because it explains so very many things, why it can't *be* right).Jo Your post is one of the best I have read on here, I don't care if you are Pro Climate Change or believe what JB states, their are way too many variable's to just blame this on CO2. CO2 being released into the atmosphere does not help, but is it the major cause?  Good Morning here is the Conus forecast for today:Short Range Forecast DiscussionNWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD347 AM EDT Wed Apr 20 2016Valid 12Z Wed Apr 20 2016 - 12Z Fri Apr 22 2016...Flash flooding possible for portions of the southern plains, westernGulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley......Severe thunderstorms possible today across the Texas panhandle......Well above average temperatures expected for the northwestern U.S...  Quoting 142. LargoFl: CO2 levels are today, among the lowest in the past 600 million years.CO2 levels were higher than today in 85% of the past 600 million years.CO2 levels were as much as 20 times higher in the geological past.CO2 levels were at least 6 times higher than today in the dinosaur period.There were three ice ages with more CO2 than today, one had fifteen times more.CO2 has never been observed in the geological record to be a driver of the climate, even when levels were significantly higher than today.CO2, by itself, can not cause much warming. For there to be dangerous warming, other things must occur, which would accelerate the warming, called positive feedbacks. The most likely is increased atmospheric water vapor. Positive feedbacks have not been observed to exist in the past and when CO2 levels were signficiantly higher than today. Atmospheric humidity is also actually in decline. If you're going to quote large sections of text from other sources instead of your own words, you need to attribute that which you post. A) Such attribution is enforced by copyright law; B) if nothing else, attribution is polite; C) Lack of attribution is called "plagiarism", and is against the forum rules; and D) attribution will let us all know from which sewer you culled this particular steaming bucketful of anti-scientific nonsense so we may mock it mercilessly for the idiocy that it so obviously is.Now, do you think it's possible you might actually visit some science sites once in a while? The website from which you copied that nonsense is run by a DC-area car dealer. That alone doesn't necessarily mean his thoughts on the subject don't matter, but any intellectually honest person has to call into question the anti-factual ramblings of a hard-right pro-oil conservative.  Quoting 147. NativeSun: [There] are way too many variable's to just blame this on CO2. CO2 being released into the atmosphere does not help, but is it the major cause? Yes:  And the convective outlook and current jet position: you can see why the Texas Panhandle area might see some strong straight line winds later today when the t-storms fire up:  And finally the forecast highs for 5:00 pm today: notice the temp differentials in Texas with the warmer air flowing up from the Gulf and the cooler temps in the Panhandle; this is where we will probably see the stronger cells later today:  Quoting 152. ncstorm:but to answer your question I didn't want to listen or embrace the science of climate change from people who are consistently angry all the time..would you? Uh, insults and vitriol have nothing to do with the validity of the theory. That's an ethical issue, not a scientific one. If you're going to disbelieve the science, do it on a basis other than that.  Quoting 153. weathermanwannabe: And finally the forecast highs for 5:00 pm today: notice the temp differentials in Texas with the warmer air flowing up from the Gulf and the cooler temps in the Panhandle; this is where we will probably see the stronger cells later today: That's not surface temperature. That's dew point temperature.  Quoting 155. KoritheMan: That's not surface temperature. That's dew point temperature. Eh I don't know 0 degrees in Phoenix at 5pm seems like a solid forecast.  Quoting 155. KoritheMan: That's not surface temperature. That's dew point temperature. Hit the wrong button; I will correct below and thanks...................... :)  Quoting 156. VAbeachhurricanes: Eh I don't know 0 degrees in Phoenix at 5pm seems like a solid forecast. With a Western trough that deep, US landfalls this hurricane season are a sure thing!  Quoting 157. weathermanwannabe: Hit the wrong button; I will correct below and thanks...................... :) np mang  Quoting 147. NativeSun: Your post is one of the best I have read on here, I don't care if you are Pro Climate Change or believe what JB states, their are way too many variable's to just blame this on CO2. CO2 being released into the atmosphere does not help, but is it the major cause? Yes, of course. When will you get it.  Quoting 159. KoritheMan: np mang Now that is a strong accent..i read ur post about H Alicia..That one weakened a bit, but did slap them sky scrapers around considerably...I remember one dude on the ground who narrowly avoided being cut in half...Bad time for a walk.  Quoting 143. EmsiNasklug: Yes, the NASA has produced a brilliant video on that issue: Antarctica Meltwater Pulse 2BBut I'm also wondering what it might do to the system of ocean currents. (It's terribly close to where I like to go for a swim in the south atlantic swell ... ) That Emsi is one of the things that will likely ( almost certainly ) have a global impact...Its no joke, those ocean currents start changing rapidly, the climate will shift in ways previously never thought possible..Mother Nature can and will do the strange and unexpected.  Quoting 143. EmsiNasklug: Yes, the NASA has produced a brilliant video on that issue: Antarctica Meltwater Pulse 2BBut I'm also wondering what it might do to the system of ocean currents. (It's terribly close to where I like to go for a swim in the south atlantic swell ... ) yep..A meter every 20 years.  Good morning from St. Thomas!It's an 82, feeling like 84, light breezes and a little overcast on the island today. Looking out from the cams today, there are two ships docked in the harbor so far. Won't be too bad traffic wise. LinkLife on the island is gearing up for Carnival 2016 this year. It will be shown online. Will post the site when I get it. I really do want to show off the head dresses my friend and I have created using 3-D pens. My other half is doing so well since his heart attack a few weeks ago. Still having what he refers to as his "old man naps" every afternoon but I keep telling him his body has to recover.AND, on another note to everyone. I FINALLY received an email from sar2401 and all is okay! Will leave what he's been up to for him to tell. Hope all is good with everybody!Lindy  Quoting 113. pureet1948: #1: I did toss my food out the fridge$300 worth. That's why I'm worried we might be back in the dark Wed. or Thu. Is this a similar weather regime?#2: How strong would a hurricane from the Gulf be to completely destroy Houston? Now, by destroy, I mean level every building, skyscrapers included. Create what some survivors might call an inland sea with the wreckage of what was once Houston, Tx. at its bottom. And leave behind a death toll of 1 million people.#3: The above is not drama, hype, or monomania. I just want answers to #1 and #2, that's all. A Hurricane would never destroy Houston. Why would you think that is possible?
 Quoting 165. luvtogolf: ncstorm, I'm in the same boat as you. I love weather and was excited when I found this site. I have no background in science other than a couple of classes in high school. One of my very first questions on here was about global warming. I didn't have an opinion either way. I was not so nicely told to go research. So I typed in questions about GW and found what I believed very compelling articles contradicting GW and being caused by humans. So I posted them and asked what people thought. The attacks I got back were shocking to me and I've never gotten over it. Funny thing is that after doing my own research, it is quite apparent to me that GW is real, the majority of it is cause by humans. But that doesn't matter. It is going to be a beautiful day for golf. FORE... Sorry for that (even if you never were one of my 'victims', but you might have been).Now the excuse. This behaviour has a reason. Spread the results of your research for a while and chalk up some responses. You may find a number to your volume of patience that may happen to be not equal to infinity but a bit less. Apart from this, I have another reason to accuse of climate revisionism until proven not guilty of that (a signal of learning something will do fine). It is simply that we are out of time. So what do we do when we're out of time: indeed, we cut the tawk short.
 Quoting 147. NativeSun: Your post is one of the best I have read on here, I don't care if you are Pro Climate Change or believe what JB states, their are way too many variable's to just blame this on CO2. CO2 being released into the atmosphere does not help, but is it the major cause? The major cause of the current warming? Yes.Next question.
 Quoting 165. luvtogolf: The attacks I got back were shocking to me and I've never gotten over it. It's okay to be upset, but don't you think it's time to move on by now? o_O
 Quoting 166. DavidHOUTX: A Hurricane would never destroy Houston. Why would you think that is possible? No,, but severe damage could occur..2 hurricanes that come to mind are Opal and Hugo..Hugo did significant damage all the way to Charlotte, NC, almost 200 miles inland. Hazel was much worse, but had some serious dynamics to boost its already devastating power.
 Quoting 170. hydrus: Good morning LTG...Was it really that bad.? I mean really, I see and read the same pages, and other than some of the short or biting comments on the subject, most are smooth and to the point. remember , this is a blog about weather and what can affect it. Do I believe rude posts should stay on the board, no, but if you take this forum so personally, your likely in for a rough go, as these disturbing and sometimes rude comments do appear. Ignore and hide comment features are winners with foul comments. Rudeness is indeed a problem, and there is plenty of it here...and most everywhere. That's a consequence of free speech and personal shortcomings. But while we're on the topic of rudeness, it is my opinion that it is rude to:-accuse hard-working scientists of dishonesty, conspiracy, and improper motivations without providing the strong evidence necessary to support such accusations;-spread disinformation, misinformation, and confusion that is contrary to evidence, observation, and reality;-constantly whine about people being mistreated while they are engaging in any of the above.
 Quoting 169. KoritheMan: It's okay to be upset, but don't you think it's time to move on by now? o_O No, Kori. We are all a bunch of mean people who bully. Now gimmie your lunch money.
 Quoting 169. KoritheMan: It's okay to be upset, but don't you think it's time to move on by now? o_O In the end of this we're all victims of the same thing. luvtogolf went on research for his own and lo and behold ran into all those poison democracy undermining, science eroding fossil industry PR tripe that took over the net and the media and governments wholesale (e.g., Holland where I live never burnt as much coal as last year simply because the government is owned by Shell and Exxon; can look for the same thing in Australia, India, Eire, UK, Spain and a number of US states).
 Quoting 112. BaltimoreBrian: Pureet1948, ask your hypothetical hurricane question. Sorry you had such a long outage--12 hours is about the point where you have to toss your food out the fridge. I keep frozen saltwater bottles in my freezer to keep it frozen longer. Any free volume is occupied by a brine bottle.To save that $300 I would get ice at a convenience store that has power and put it in a thin walled container in the fridge, perhaps mixedwith salt but not too much to prevent a frozen refrigerator. A good ratio is probably a pound of salt to 30 pounds of ice which should produce a brine temperature of about 28F but ice by itself is probably enough. With general community power loss though that may not be possible. When my fridge was fried in the 2012 DC Derecho, I needed 60 pounds of ice a day to keep it cold until I could get a new one but I had a separate deep freezer and could freeze water bottles for that.  The West antarctic cold blob comes up with a record, too - a telling sign for the increasing meltwater runoff there. Does it get the attention it deserves? The fastest warming area in the Southern Hemisphere is the Antarctic Peninsula. Note that the cold spot is just East it. On the leeward side of the ACC.  Quoting 172. Misanthroptimist: Rudeness is indeed a problem, and there is plenty of it here...and most everywhere. That's a consequence of free speech and personal shortcomings. But while we're on the topic of rudeness, it is my opinion that it is rude to:-accuse hard-working scientists of dishonesty, conspiracy, and improper motivations without providing the strong evidence necessary to support such accusations;-spread disinformation, misinformation, and confusion that is contrary to evidence, observation, and reality;-constantly whine about people being mistreated while they are engaging in any of the above. Well taken indeed..I am tolerant of just about anything. The worst is when I read complete and utter BS, and one passes it off as solid , incontrovertible data...I smile while being thoroughly disgusted.In the mean time, we have this ...Daily CO2Mauna Loa Observatory | Atmospheric CO2 ConcentrationsApril 19, 2016407.12 ppmNOAA-ESRLApril 19, 2015403.65 ppm Scripps CO2 UCSDdaily mean concentrations - ppm = parts per millionHighest-ever daily average CO2 at MLO: 409.44 ppm on April 9, 2016 (Scripps)2nd highest daily average CO2 at MLO: 409.39 ppm on April 8, 2016 (Scripps)Highest daily peak CO2 recorded at MLO for 2015: 404.84 ppm on April 13, 2015 (Scripps)  I love stories like this...A message in a bottle that washed up 108 years later officially confirmed as world's oldest  Tragedy yesterday from storms off the coast of Tabasco, Mexico: http://www.tabascohoy.com.mx/nota/307949/reportan- 20-pescadores-extraviados-en-ciudad-de-carmen (20 fishermen missing)Link  Coral bleaching hits 93% of Great Barrier Reef: scientistsAustralia's Great Barrier Reef is suffering its worst coral bleaching in recorded history with 93 percent of the World Heritage site affected, scientists said Wednesday, as they revealed the phenomenon is also hitting the other side of the country.After extensive aerial and underwater surveys, researchers at James Cook University said only seven percent of the huge reef had escaped the whitening triggered by warmer water temperatures."We've never seen anything like this scale of bleaching before," said Terry Hughes, convenor of the National Coral Bleaching Taskforce.Link  Quoting 179. Wernerdad: Tragedy yesterday from storms off the coast of Tabasco, Mexico: http://www.tabascohoy.com.mx/nota/307949/reportan- 20-pescadores-extraviados-en-ciudad-de-carmen (20 fishermen missing)Link Link wont work.  Quoting 173. Naga5000: No, Kori. We are all a bunch of mean people who bully. Now gimmie your lunch money. All I have is a homemade black-bean and cilantro burrito...just simple hippie food...  Quoting 173. Naga5000: No, Kori. We are all a bunch of mean people who bully. Now gimmie your lunch money. You and what army?  Quoting 182. aquak9: All I have is a homemade black-bean and cilantro burrito...just simple hippie food... Throw in some rice, and its one of the healthiest foods on the planet...Good morning K9. 185. OKsky  I am seeing a lot of boo hooing over "attacks". I can't speak for anyone but myself, but here is where I am coming from and why I bulldog anyone bringing anti-science rhetoric into the mix. 1st off, What do I consider "anti-science"? Any opinion that runs in opposition of published science without having any published science on its side to back it up. The claims coming out of various groups such as Anti-vaxxers, the Anti-GMO movement, Climate Change Deniers, Flat Earth Theorists and the Intelligent Design camp are all examples of this.How do you know if your opinion is backed by published science?Depending on the topic there are several ways you can dive in, even as a layperson.Google Scholar is a good place to start in general.Pubmed is where to go if its something medical.Sometimes resources such at this very blog are invaluable because they take the dense lingo filled papers and turn them into easy to read and absorb reporting. However, always make sure they cite their sources... and until you develop trust (and even every now and then even after that point) make sure you click thru and actually look at the source material to make sure it jives with the reporting. I have found obvious contradictions in reporting from the paper they cite on some anti-gmo sites, for example. If you are evaluating a claim in a scientific paper or otherwise also try to weigh their arguments. Are they knowingly or unknowingly using rhetorical tricks to make their points seem more solid than they actually are? Here is a good list of what I am talking about.Don't forget to keep yourself in check, even though it is futile, try to avoid cognitive biases.With ubiquitous access to the internet, there really is no excuse for falling for anti-science scams at this point, and yes they are scams. They all are selling an ideology, or an actual product.. and sometimes in this day and age its simply for selling web traffic to advertisers. Sometimes its all three... cough cough naturalnews.com cough. Another thing... If I am bulldogging you, I am not trying to convert you. I am countering the misinformation that you are trying to spread mainly in case anyone else is on the fence and reading this mess for some reason (Because much of the time that person is me reading you guys debate about SST oscillations and other fun stuff that I know nothing about), and if you really want to jab me back then have some sources that you can show to have at least made an attempt to vet using the methods I listed above (mainly be able to cite a scientific pub at the very least) ....and then and only then can we have a real debate over the science. My mind is open, just show me the science.TLDR:Its 2016, we have all the info and search ability at our fingertips....Show me the science on your side and I will be much more understanding.  Sorry. Repaired link re the Tabasco, Mexico storm and the missing fishermen (story in Spanish): Reportan 20 pescadores extraviados en Ciudad de Cármen  The current look for the big Mid-West low:  Quoting 113. pureet1948: #1: I did toss my food out the fridge$300 worth. That's why I'm worried we might be back in the dark Wed. or Thu. Is this a similar weather regime?#2: How strong would a hurricane from the Gulf be to completely destroy Houston? Now, by destroy, I mean level every building, skyscrapers included. Create what some survivors might call an inland sea with the wreckage of what was once Houston, Tx. at its bottom. And leave behind a death toll of 1 million people.#3: The above is not drama, hype, or monomania. I just want answers to #1 and #2, that's all. I am concerned that with 2015 setting new records in the Pacific with category 4 and 5 systems what will 2016 hold for the Atlantic? Outside of the 'cold blob' that could impact CV season I am really concerned with what can develop in the Western Atlantic.
 Quoting 164. VirginIslandsVisitor: AND, on another note to everyone. I FINALLY received an email from sar2401 and all is okay! Will leave what he's been up to for him to tell. Great news!!! Thanks a lot for sharing! And best wishes to your partner, Lindy!
 Quoting 113. pureet1948: #1: I did toss my food out the fridge $300 worth. That's why I'm worried we might be back in the dark Wed. or Thu. Is this a similar weather regime?#2: How strong would a hurricane from the Gulf be to completely destroy Houston? Now, by destroy, I mean level every building, skyscrapers included. Create what some survivors might call an inland sea with the wreckage of what was once Houston, Tx. at its bottom. And leave behind a death toll of 1 million people.#3: The above is not drama, hype, or monomania. I just want answers to #1 and #2, that's all. I bought a generator for this reason. It WILL pay for itself at some point. (Don't wait for a storm to form or enter the GOM to buy a generator, inflated prices along with long useless lines) Just use the generator safely. Houston will never be leveled by a Hurricane, at least not one that has ever been documented. Alicia was a nasty storm in 1983 and it shut downtown down because of broken glass from the skyscrapers and Allison tried to drown Downtown Houston but the city will remain. 191. bwi  Watching the storm roll in: https://www.lookr.com/lookout/1198520951-Kimmirut #action-play-day  Someday you all will learn you are no more important than a fruit fly.  Quoting 145. islander101010: s. pac td 17f sure is wandering around. worth keeping an eye on It is. I'm trying my climate change adjusted model again. Add three cats to the most bullish model output for reality.  : P  Quoting 193. cRRKampen: It is. I'm trying my climate change adjusted model again. Add three cats to the most bullish model output for reality. Hope you're wrong this time, but having in mind the development of other recent cyclones, well ... This one is heading in the direction of Samoa:BTW, Fantala looks pretty again:  Tropical Cyclone Imagery - Storm FloatersThese floaters are fully automated and dependent upon input to the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast (ATCF) system, which is provided by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). Once these agencies have input their last fix into the ATCF, our web floater remains active for an additional 18 hours before being removed.  Posted by my friend, Dr. Michael Mann on His FB page . WEDNESDAY, APR 20, 2016 04:56 AM CDTLying is their business: Ari Rabin-Havt on the industry that’s grown to create and disseminate right-wing propagandaAuthor Ari Rabin-Havt explains how modern conservatism is built on an entire industry built to lieAMANDA MARCOTTE Follow We live in troubling times, what many have dubbed a “post-truth” era, where there’s little, if any, political penalty for conservatives to tell outright lies about everything from health care to climate change, an environment that has led directly to the situation we face now, where the Republican primary is a race between two stunningly belligerent and shameless liars.Ari Rabin-Havt and Media Matters have come together to chronicle how things got this bad in a new book, “Lies, Incorporated: The World of Post-Truth Politics.” I interviewed Rabin-Havt about the industry that’s grown up to create and spread the lies that are the basis of much of modern right wing propaganda.Your book is titled “Lies, Incorporated,” which you say is more than a snazzy title, but a reference to “this industry made of lobbyists, PR companies, media lackeys, unethical experts and unscrupulous think tanks.” And it’s all for the purpose of spreading and ingraining lies into the public consciousness, usually from the right. Why do you think this deserves a designation as its own industry?When I started digging in, I found it to be something different than your day-to-day run-of-the-mill D.C. lobbying and corruption. I found it to be something wholly more unethical and wholly strategically separate. Even though it’s part and parcel of the tactics used in those efforts, it becomes something different when you think about the fact that these are individuals who set out to intentionally manipulate public policy by manipulating the truth.This whole system started with the tobacco industry and its efforts to shut down discussion about how smoking causes cancer. Can you talk about that history?Sure, and full credit to Naomi Oreskes and her team and her work at Harvard and her book, which I think really opened a lot of eyes around this.John Hill met with kind of the tobacco barons in the 1950s and they had a problem—their issue was that there were a series of articles coming out where the linkages between their product and cancer were becoming more and more clear. In fact, the research that linked tobacco to cancer dates back decades before that. By the time they met it was kind of becoming widely accepted. So Hill sets up a PR infrastructure to combat the very idea that tobacco was causing health problems. They basically decided that the best way for them to maintain their profits as an industry was to join together and deny facts and knowingly lie.What’s interesting is John Hill, this legendary PR guy, before he had this meeting with the tobacco barons, he himself had quit smoking because of health concerns!And yet still was willing to push this.If you look at the quote-unquote tobacco scientists, and then if you look at a lot of the people I cite in the book, it’s very easy to say—you hear this all the time with climate scientists—”these are people who sold out for money.” It’s really easy to say that. That’s not true in most of these cases. There is financial gain, let’s not toss that to the side, but these people do it for ideology.For example, in the case of climate, if you look at the ideology of some of the distinguished researchers that were coming out who were climate deniers, a lot of it is anticommunism. Why? Because they believe that big government and government intervention in such a large scale problem invariably takes a road towards more government control, hence, communism.It seems to me that while the climate denialist movement started with this well-funded industry attempt to find some dirt on climate scientists, the attacks really got traction because all of these right wing ideologues started dog-piling these scientists. What happened there?You have a hack of East Anglia University, which was a pretty unknown university to people outside this world, where a bunch of emails from climate scientists all around the world discussing their research get exposed. They’re people on an email list together, and when people are on an email list together in the confines of friends, they talk in a fairly casual manner because you assume good faith. If you take things out of context when people are speaking in a casual manner, especially scientists, you end up with ideological weapons that can be used.Ken Cuccinelli, who was then attorney general of Virginia and trying to run for governor, tried to get climate scientist Michael Mann‘s records from UVA, where he had been a professor. You have investigations launched, all of which find, of course, that there’s nothing wrong.more:,.....  Quoting 173. Naga5000: No, Kori. We are all a bunch of mean people who bully. Now gimmie your lunch money. u hurted my feelings ;; 199. ariot  I guess my comment was deleted or lost. Probably better that way.On AGW: I think some people who can't accept science like AGW or evolution don't want to come out and say they have some religious beliefs they can't reconcile, or they fear what public policy outcomes may be the result of our reaction to AGW.The reason I think this is that I know people, many of them who will run around quoting a single study about something they accept, but they don't accept AGW theory that is based on mountains of empirical data.Similarly, I know people who have read every hard-copy National Geographic for the last decade or five, and they treat it as a trusted source of general information, but talk to those same people about AGW and they won't accept even the idea.This is where the state of the conversation is for many, everyday, regular people that I encounter. It's either religion or politics.  Quoting 171. hydrus: No,, but severe damage could occur..2 hurricanes that come to mind are Opal and Hugo..Hugo did significant damage all the way to Charlotte, NC, almost 200 miles inland. Hazel was much worse, but had some serious dynamics to boost its already devastating power. Well of course it would cause damage. But that guy posted that comment as if it would level all the buildings. lol  Santiago in chaos: Millions left without water as flooding strikes Chile capitalSevere flooding has brought chaos to Santiago as heavy rains have been battering the region since Friday. An estimated four million people have been left without drinking water and, according to police reports, at least one person has been killed as a result of the floods so far. The capital was deluged after the Mapocho River overflowed its banks for the first time in 30 years.Link  U.S. Tornadoes ‏@USTornadoes 26m26 minutes agoFavorable tornado pattern arrives next week, could carry over into at least start of May.  Quoting 132. flibinite: Can all of you, who are, or who profess to be, so smart and learned about why the Earth's surface is warming, please explain this to me (or, more correctly, explain it away for me).Premise, I believe the Earth's surface is warming, but my wonderment is to *exactly* why.There are plenty of resources available that go into as much depth as you'd care to on this subject. However, for good general summary as well as a solid list of references to research materials I'd suggest the IPCC reports. For more detail and understanding, you can start hitting the physics, chemistry, and math books. Most all of you, it seems, state that it is totally, or almost totally, caused by fossil fuel burning and other acts of man (rain forest burning, etc.).Correct. This was originally predicted in the 1890's by Svante Arrhenius in his explorations of the greenhouse effect. Given the time and the technology, his climate model using CO2 was remarkably accurate (as was is initial approximation to the forcing).Still, it seems to be increasing even faster than previous greenhouse theories expected, or predicted.Not really. You see, there isn't one prediction here. There isn't one model, or one scenario. There are many models that run many thousands of scenarios which give a range of likely future states of the climate. The further into the future you go, the wider the range is.The results are then analyzed and averaged to produce the most probable result with range bounding the prediction. Hence why you see "from X to Z with Y being the most likely" type predictions in the literature. Now since we don't have perfect models nor the perfect data to feed them, there will always be some deviation between the models and reality. It happens with any physical model. However, the current warming is still well within the bounds of expectation.I'm thinking it's something different. I'm thinking, for whatever reason (increased radioactive interactions, solar and universe-driven magnetic/gravitational fluxes, other unknown natural processes), that the interior of the earth is heating up, both the inner core and the mantle (keep in mind that the Earth's crust, the layer just above the mantle, is as little as three miles thick at the lowest portions of the ocean).On the surface, this sound plausible but once you start digging it doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Any significant deviation in core and mantle temperatures would have a serious impact on the surface. The thermal expansion alone would make the Russian Steppes event look like a child's volcano project. All that said, is there any accurate, complete, and up-to-date measurement of the "total temperature" of the mantle from month-to-month available?Um...no. And there won't be any time soon. The temperatures and composition of the Earth's interior are, at best, inferred.And if so, what is it, and how has it changed since, say, 1980? Is it going up or down? I mean, if the crust is heating up, in toto, from say, 940 degrees, F., to 960 degrees F., over all that time, isn't it logical to assume the mantle is simply like a huge, thin hotplate under the oceans, and that this basically immeasurable 20 degree change in the overall mantle's temperature might/does radiate some of that temperature through the 3-20 miles of Earth's crust and into the oceans (picture various thicknesses of frying pans as equivalent to the Earth's crust).Well, the problem here is that you aren't taking into account all the consequences of your hypothesized core heat increase. Forgetting about the geological consequences for the moment (which would be substantial and not really something we'd miss), heating of the oceans from an increase crustal temperature would have a significant impact on ocean circulation. Again, the change wouldn't be subtle.For example, what would happen if my "theory" were true?You don't have a theory. You have an unsubstantiated hypothesis. Worse, it's a hypothesis that has failed to take into account all the ramifications of what your proposing, which makes it weak to begin with. And no, this isn't a personal attack on you and it isn't calling you "stupid". Scientists can easily spend years or decades working on a hypothesis to develop it into a working theory and they end up throwing out a lot of hypothesis in the process. And even when they think they have a rock solid hypothesis with solid evidence supporting it, when they submit it for peer review they may find that it wasn't as solid as they thought.Well, the oceans would heat up as the crust slowly heats up, and said new/added heat would then be transferred to the atmosphere.Then, global temperatures would increase (with land ice melting and thermal expansion raising sea level rates) as it has been. There would be a more rapid expansion of the Earth's crust (as added heat tends to do that to systems and structures), which could raise sea levels some, and would probably cause increased earthquake and volcanic activity along more "crustal" faultlines (and more, new submarine volcanos, which automatically raise sea levels a small bit, too). This is where a solid foundation in physics would help you. Your making a lot of casual assertions but don't provide anything to back up your assertions. Have you done the math? Do you know what a 20C increase in mantle temperatures would do to the surface? What are your calculations of crustal thermal emissivity? How would you explain a clear crustal temperature increase on the ocean floor without a corresponding increase on land? Do you have any evidence of an increase in geological activity? Have you analyzed such trends against the paleogeological record?And that's just a few basic questions. A geological expert would tear into your casual assertions like a starving pitbull tears into a steak.In addition, geological experts would be the first note any increases/changes in the Earth's interior. Such a change wouldn't exactly be subtle.Are any of these geological things happening now, or happening more than they did 50 years ago? I don't know, but it certainly seems so to me.Seems so to you? That is a very weak argument. A casual browsing of the USGS doesn't show any noticeable trend in major geological activity.I do know that almost certainly anthropogenic global warming is not the cause of any of the earthquakes, volcanos, and the magnetic pole drift that we've been seeing for the past 10 years.Climate changes are measured on the scales of multiple decades and centuries. Regardless, you're trying to conflate clearly geological processes with climate. While global warming could potentially cause some earthquakes and volcanic eruptions through isostatic rebound and the consequences thereof, it's not really a key concern.So, as I feel more strongly that "interior planet heating" is more responsible for global warming than anything mankind has done (and possibly the cause of previous eras when the Earth was warmer than it is now, and given, it seems, that all interior planet temperatures, according to the literature, are "estimates"), I'm asking any of you to prove to me that my theory is *incorrect* (which you cannot prove simply by saying your anthropogenic "theory" certainly *appears* more correct).That's not how science works. It is up to YOU to substantiate your hypothesis. YOU have to show that your hypothesis correctly explains and models the phenomena better than what the current science provides. YOU have to submit your research for review by a panel experts. If YOU can't sufficiently support YOUR hypothesis, then it isn't a good hypothesis, let alone a theory.As I've already pointed out, your hypothesis is extremely weak, unsubstantiated, and filled with unsupported/false assertions that at best show a lack of understanding of current science.On the other hand, AGW is extremely well supported by physics, chemistry, and observations going back over a 100 years. You would need to present an exceptionally strong case to show that it is incorrect, which you are very far from establishing.And extra points if you do not use only NASA data to prove that, as both their accuracy and veracity are more than a bit circumspect in my mind, as buying everything they feed us seems more than a bit naive, doesn't it? I mean, the Government never has an agenda, does it?I was wondering when you'd get around to the conspiracy nutter side of things. However, data is just data. It doesn't do anything by itself. The data is a byproduct of the system, which is what a scientists tries to understand. Once he/she formulates a working model, they validate that model against the observations to ensure that their model accurately represents how the system operates.As for why excess CO2 leads to a warmer world, well that's just physics and chemistry. There are plenty of texts on black body radiation, atmospheric chemistry, etc. that would give you more than enough information to come to that conclusion. If a scientists in the 1800's could figure it out without so much as a hand calculator, I'm pretty sure you can.It might require some real work on all of your part(s) to do so, but until anyone does, please don't expect me to simply buy that man-made greenhouse gases are the root of all evil in our hotter world.Real work? As opposed to what? Your "awesome" unsupported hypothesis? There are tens of thousands of research papers detailing just about any aspect of the climate system you'd care to name. There thousands of books on physics and chemistry that provide all the foundation one needs to establish such research, most of which can trace it's origins back to the early 1700's.YOU are the one that needs to do real work, and quite a substantial amount of it, to support your claims. Yet you haven't provided anything other than naive speculation. That won't hold up here, and would get you laughed out of any real research review.I think this is a real and serious and "debateable" question, so if you simply want to dismiss it by calling me a JB-like Luddite, please take such "explanations" somewhere else, as Dr. Masters and Dr. Henson are obviously attempting to run a much classier, and logic-based, blog than that. You haven't brought up anything "debatable". Your general ignorance of physics, geology, etc. has sabotaged your arguments out of the gate. You need to provide something more substantive than baseless assumptions about how you THINK things work. Casting aspersions instead of supporting your hypothesis with cold hard facts and data also does nothing to help your case.(Note: I know it's very late to post something like this and to get it read (it's after 4 AM here, EDT), so I'll probably be posting this again tomorrow afternoon, just to see if I can get any factually-based response. I mean it... I have no access to Earth's crust and mantle temperatures over the past 20-50 years, and frankly, that's about the only way anyone is going to be able to categorically prove to me that I can't be right in this. I'm not saying my "theory" is right, mind you... only that I'm wondering, because it explains so very many things, why it can't *be* right).JoNo, actually, your hypothesis doesn't explain anything. Actually, I take that back. It does. It's a stellar example of the Dunning-Kruger effect. You have a deep misunderstanding how the scientific process operates, and how science research in general works. You're clearly ignorant when it comes to the sciences, otherwise you would not have made such a hollow and weak hypothesis to begin with (any undergrad geological text would explain why your fundamental premise is incorrect). You also would have known, had you studied the actual subject material, that getting you don't just "get" mantle temperatures, let alone on a monthly basis.Also, had you studied the science you would have discovered yet another gaping hole in your hypothesis. If indeed it was the planet warming instead of an enhanced greenhouse effect, then the additional heat would have shown up as a net increase in thermal emissions of the planet. However, there has been a net DECREASE in thermal emissions of the planet. That indicates a heat trapping effect, not a heat generating one. At any rate, you get props for trying.  Quoting 200. DavidHOUTX: Well of course it would cause damage. But that guy posted that comment as if it would level all the buildings. lol I understand..I would never believe such a thing. A violent tornado is another matter entirely. I would not want to see a city taking a direct hit from a monster like that...Have seen footage of Dallas being hit in the 1957 Dallas-Parrin Field tornado...Excellent footage by 1957 standards....Here is the link if anyone is interested....Link  CWG has released a article on the intense tropical cyclone episodes we've been seeing. In the past six months, the Earth has witnessed several of the freakiest, most intense storms in recorded history.Spurred by the warmest ocean temperatures observed to date,these storms may be a harbinger of increasingly severe tropical cyclones in future decades as the Earth continues warming. LinkThe only basin that has managed to avoid these storms are the Atlantic but I think that is because the Gulf and specifically the caribbean has been shut down these last few years.Could this be the year for the Atlantic?  Wichita Falls,TX April 10 -1979...  Quoting 203. Xyrus2000:There are plenty of resources available that go into as much depth as you'd care to on this subject. However, for good general summary as well as a solid list of references to research materials I'd suggest the IPCC reports. For more detail and understanding, you can start hitting the physics, chemistry, and math books. .... Xyrus2000 -Your answers in this response to flibinite where of a quality that really made me happy to be along for the ride on this blog. Respect. -not sure what's in the glass but I'm sure it's fruit juice of some kind :)  Quoting 205. washingtonian115: CWG has released a article on the intense tropical cyclone episodes we've been seeing. In the past six months, the Earth has witnessed several of the freakiest, most intense storms in recorded history.Spurred by the warmest ocean temperatures observed to date,these storms may be a harbinger of increasingly severe tropical cyclones in future decades as the Earth continues warming. LinkThe only basin that has managed to avoid these storms are the Atlantic but I think that is because the Gulf and specifically the caribbean has been shut down these last few years.Could this be the year for the Atlantic? Probably not. Central America and northern South America are experiencing severe drought, which means dry air for the hurricane zone.  Quoting 205. washingtonian115: The only basin that has managed to avoid these storms are the Atlantic but I think that is because the Gulf and specifically the caribbean has been shut down these last few years.Could this be the year for the Atlantic? When the cards line up for the Atlantic, its really, really going to suck for somebody......  Every year brings the chance for a GOM Major...  Quoting 210. Patrap: Every year brings the chance for a GOM Major... mornin Pat..Nothing short of extremely dangerous...So glad we have had a decent break...Much needed for many to recover...If possible...some nevr will.  Quoting 207. JNFlori30A: Xyrus2000 -Your answers in this response to flibinite where of a quality that really made me happy to be along for the ride on this blog. Respect. -not sure what's in the glass but I'm sure it's fruit juice of some kind :) It's Locutus of Borg!Anyway...expecting some rain later. Don't think it'll be anything like Houston, though.  Quoting 211. hydrus: mornin Pat..Nothing short of extremely dangerous...So glad we have had a decent break...Much needed for many to recover...If possible...some nevr will. Morning...Been painting the House for 2 weeks now so we should factor that in as well.  Quoting 213. Patrap: Morning...Been painting the House for 2 weeks now so we should factor that in as well. What color?  Quoting 182. aquak9: All I have is a homemade black-bean and cilantro burrito...just simple hippie food... I'll take it, bring two tomorrow.  Quoting 214. 62901IL: What color? Yes. We do need to know. Please keep us posted.  Quoting 192. Barefootontherocks: Someday you all will learn you are no more important than a fruit fly. Nuthin wrong with that...Everything serves the whole...that mysterious cosmic force beyond all human understanding..  Quoting 214. 62901IL: What color?  Quoting 218. Patrap: Yellow. That's the same color my house is.  Quoting 205. washingtonian115: CWG has released a article on the intense tropical cyclone episodes we've been seeing. In the past six months, the Earth has witnessed several of the freakiest, most intense storms in recorded history.Spurred by the warmest ocean temperatures observed to date,these storms may be a harbinger of increasingly severe tropical cyclones in future decades as the Earth continues warming. LinkThe only basin that has managed to avoid these storms are the Atlantic but I think that is because the Gulf and specifically the caribbean has been shut down these last few years.Could this be the year for the Atlantic? Yes it could. The west of it certainly. The shear should relax. The heat is readily available.Given the way records are broken, maybe wise to call the hurricane season of 2005 a statistic of a past era already. Given the areas where some of the world's most terrifying systems have evolved, esp. Patricia, I will so not rule out a Caribbean 860 hPa cyclone that I'm almost expecting that this year. If this doesn't play out too much this year, it will do the next - add one or two cat 5s per year of procrastination.  So far so good for April:Have to wait to see what May brings:  Quoting 195. barbamz: Hope you're wrong this time, but having in mind the development of other recent cyclones, well ... Given the fact that TS Amos (as it's been christened) should remain a fish storm, I'm okay with getting it right on this one, and will try to save my hope for some other occurrences this year. Though I might not speak out such hope at all times, of course, especially at that moment when they say 'this is not the time for...'.  Black Tuesday Wichita Falls TX April 10 1979--Link  However, this chart/link has a total of 225 so far from Jan 1st to April 19th: http://www.ustornadoes.com/2016/04/19/tracking-ra tings-survey-details-tornadoes-of-2016/  Quoting 204. hydrus: I understand..I would never believe such a thing. A violent tornado is another matter entirely. I would not want to see a city taking a direct hit from a monster like that...Have seen footage of Dallas being hit in the 1957 Dallas-Parrin Field tornado...Excellent footage by 1957 standards....Here is the link if anyone is interested....Link Two monster tornadoes that crossed paths over the south side of Oklahoma City/Moore Oklahoma. They've also had numerous smaller tornadoes affect the same area over the past several years.Total devastation to the homes in the tornado's path.The May 3, 1999 Bridge Creek/Moore/Oklahoma City tornado still holds the record for the highest wind speed recorded by radar at over 300 mph.  Quoting 209. tlawson48: When the cards line up for the Atlantic, its really, really going to suck for somebody...... It only takes one storm to make an awful lot of lives miserable. 228. JRRP7 229. OKsky  Quoting 226. Sfloridacat5: Two monster tornadoes that crossed paths over the south side of Oklahoma City/Moore Oklahoma. They've also had numerous smaller tornadoes affect the same area over the past several years.Total devastation to the homes in the tornado's path.The May 3, 1999 Bridge Creek/Moore/Oklahoma City tornado still holds the record for the highest wind speed recorded by radar at over 300 mph. The May 3rd beast, stripped bark off of trees and even moved foundations. Excuse the pun but its mind blowing what that thing did.  Quoting 142. LargoFl: CO2 levels are today, among the lowest in the past 600 million years.CO2 levels were higher than today in 85% of the past 600 million years.CO2 levels were as much as 20 times higher in the geological past.CO2 levels were at least 6 times higher than today in the dinosaur period.There were three ice ages with more CO2 than today, one had fifteen times more.CO2 has never been observed in the geological record to be a driver of the climate, even when levels were significantly higher than today.CO2, by itself, can not cause much warming. For there to be dangerous warming, other things must occur, which would accelerate the warming, called positive feedbacks. The most likely is increased atmospheric water vapor. Positive feedbacks have not been observed to exist in the past and when CO2 levels were signficiantly higher than today. Atmospheric humidity is also actually in decline. You ought to take the time to listen to Richard Alley's AGU lecture from 2009 on carbon dioxide.The Biggest Control Knob: Carbon Dioxide in Earth's Climate HistoryIt covers carbon dioxide going back over 4 billion years and how it ties into the climate.  Quoting 229. OKsky: The May 3rd beast, stripped bark off of trees and even moved foundations. Excuse the pun but its mind blowing what that thing did. I am very lucky to have moved from that area. I once lived on S.W. 127th street in Oklahoma City, and I graduated from Moore High School. But I was living in Fort Myers in 1999. Based on Google Maps, my old house is still there so it some how missed both tornadoes (1999, 2013). But my house had to have been less than a mile away from both those monster tornadoes (actually in the middle between the two tornado paths).  Ha..I see my posts have been removed by the mods or flagged out..that IP address thingy must be broken..oh well.....I tried..Good luck with the insults and vitrol..its always important to include that when responding to skeptics..If any of the "1000s" of lurkers have any questions about GW you are welcome to email me..I promise I wont call you an idiot or stupid..or take your lunch money..  Quoting 154. KoritheMan: Uh, insults and vitriol have nothing to do with the validity of the theory. That's an ethical issue, not a scientific one. If you're going to disbelieve the science, do it on a basis other than that. yeah but the delivery of the message does..Thats like me coming to tell you stacked the eggs at Walmart wrong and that you're also an idiot as well..my statement is true about the task but to include the insult well that's a whole nother matter.. I'm sure you wouldn't appreciate how I delivered it to you..If your qualifying that insults are justified in getting a point across in talking with people then life is going to be very hard..I just rather be nice  Quoting 228. JRRP7: What is that giant bird about to do to FL?  Quoting 233. ncstorm: yeah but the delivery of the message does..Thats like me coming to tell you stacked the eggs at Walmart wrong and that you're also an idiot as well..my statement is true about the task but to include the insult well that's a whole nother matter.. I'm sure you wouldn't appreciate how I delivered it to you..If your qualifying that insults are justified in getting a point across in talking with people then life is going to be very hard..I just rather be nice Your concern is noted. It has nothing to do with weather or climate, though.  Quoting 233. ncstorm: yeah but the delivery of the message does..Thats like me coming to tell you stacked the eggs at Walmart wrong and that you're also an idiot as well..my statement is true about the task but to include the insult well that's a whole nother matter.. I'm sure you wouldn't appreciate how I delivered it to you..If your qualifying that insults are justified in getting a point across in talking with people then life is going to be very hard..I just rather be nice Your point is very well taken with me. People should be able to discuss any topic without name calling or trying to belittle the person with insults.That applies to both sides of the argument. I'm a teacher and I would lose my job if the administration walked into my classroom and I was throwing insults at my students. It's also a terrible way to teach. Students will refuse to listen to you as soon as you make them feel "stupid."  Quoting 205. washingtonian115: CWG has released a article on the intense tropical cyclone episodes we've been seeing. In the past six months, the Earth has witnessed several of the freakiest, most intense storms in recorded history.Spurred by the warmest ocean temperatures observed to date,these storms may be a harbinger of increasingly severe tropical cyclones in future decades as the Earth continues warming. LinkThe only basin that has managed to avoid these storms are the Atlantic but I think that is because the Gulf and specifically the caribbean has been shut down these last few years.Could this be the year for the Atlantic? One would hope NOT... but anything is possible.  Quoting 192. Barefootontherocks: Someday you all will learn you are no more important than a fruit fly. What is wrong with you? 239. OKsky  Quoting 233. ncstorm: yeah but the delivery of the message does..Thats like me coming to tell you stacked the eggs at Walmart wrong and that you're also an idiot as well..my statement is true about the task but to include the insult well that's a whole nother matter.. I'm sure you wouldn't appreciate how I delivered it to you..If your qualifying that insults are justified in getting a point across in talking with people then life is going to be very hard..I just rather be nice Did the mods pull the offending comments you are talking about? The only instance I can find of anyone calling anyone an idiot is Patrap calling members of congress idiots. Or are you just talking about snark in general? The other day I called someone a troll and got banned for a bit... I felt bad about it (it was my first time to get banned from anywhere) and apologized to the guy afterwards. I was wrong to do that and I agree with you that name calling really does a disservice to everyone involved. Which comments are you talking about though?  Per GFS, looks like a more serious tornado threat is coming in the 5-10 day time period. From the looks of it, Colorado is going to add to their already impressive tornado total this year. 242. bwi  Quoting 233. ncstorm: yeah but the delivery of the message does..Thats like me coming to tell you stacked the eggs at Walmart wrong and that you're also an idiot as well..my statement is true about the task but to include the insult well that's a whole nother matter.. I'm sure you wouldn't appreciate how I delivered it to you..If your qualifying that insults are justified in getting a point across in talking with people then life is going to be very hard..I just rather be nice I agree. Here's part of the reason why: Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 13 Comments: 17935I sympathize with the frustration when posters with 0 posts and 2 comments come on here not to learn but to harangue with anti-science stuff. It's clear that this board is really getting sick and tired of that. But I just hope it doesn't spill over into rudeness to longtime participants too. We need to mind our manners, post our facts and opinions and understandings and leave it at that.Weather's changing, and it's going to hurt a lot of people, in lots of unexpected ways. We can help by learning as much as possible, and doing what we can to prevent, delay and prepare  Quoting 239. OKsky: Did the mods pull the offending comments you are talking about? The only instance I can find of anyone calling anyone an idiot is Patrap calling members of congress idiots. Or are you just talking about snark in general? The other day I called someone a troll and got banned for a bit... I felt bad about it (it was my first time to get banned from anywhere) and apologized to the guy afterwards. I was wrong to do that and I agree with you that name calling really does a disservice to everyone involved. yes  Long way out....Severe weather would be certain, and bad......Notice the return flow..and 999 mb low... 247. vis0  Quoting 146. NativeSun: Is this guy for real? Of course 2016 will be one of the warmest years recorded in our very short span of accurate global temps. no life on the planet for billions of years, but their also has been life and CO2 and O2 for billions of years also. What do you expect the Global Temps to do with a warm PDO, and AMO, and not lets forget a very strong Super Godzilla Nino. Lets see what the temps do when all this reverses, with a cold AMO, PDO, and a Super Mothra La Nina. It's good to see some countries are starting to take steps to help replant the trees and other vegetation, that has been destroyed in the countries rainforest, as I believe the more vegetation you destroy, the less CO2 will be absorbed by the vegetation, and please lets not forget what overpopulation does to CO2 levels. I just hope JB sends a response to this mans challenge, not the money part, as that is a no win scenario for this a few more years. i have not listened to the clip so i'm taking a shot in the dark, But by what Nativesun has commented it has to do with proving that there is NO GLOBAL warming trend or will their be a GLOBAL cooling trend soon, by soon a mean 2-3 years.So if i use my guesstimated statement as to what the VID is 'bout, then the important POINTS are::GLOBAL TEMPERATURE TREND.If this is correct then i would say to Nativesun's comment::"What do you expect the Global Temps to do with a warm PDO, and AMO, and not lets forget a very strong Super Godzilla Nino. Lets see what the temps do when all this reverses, with a cold AMO, PDO, and a Super Mothra*** La Nina."Then i'd reply to Nativesun and JB go ahead instead of going just waiting for the future give me a year where the GLOBAL TEMPERATURE where below historical averages in the last 30 years. I'm giving you 30!!!! years not just a few or decade. Since both Nativesun and JB state this warming trend are cycles that change in a few years or when there is no Niño though of late JB is no longer sating no Niño and not mentioning neutral years a much and just saying its cooler when there i a La Nina. So i think Natuvesun or JB can find neutral or La Nina years in the past 30 years, when you do that post the years that had cooler GLOBAL TEMPERATURE when compared to the FULL historical records and again try to keep the years while humans were around as after all this is why we are concerned i am pretty sure if you don't want to be taxed to protect your life you surely (sit down Grothar i did not call you) don't want to be taxed to protect some underwater creature than can survive high CO2 levels. Also remember when you reference past scientific records or findings that have ben peer reviewed thus official science findings you are using the same science that is being used to show the Globe is warming, IF you use peer reviewed reports not just an unlinked quote from a blogger that agrees with your point of view, if upholders of peer reviewed science as to aGW findings decided to link not just REAL peer reviewed pages but all that agreed from the worlds blogs the internet would crash. Just like we have Arbor Day we need a Earth's Health day where all major sites post how Earth is doing, most will post how Earth is sick AND INCLUDE a live presentation of the planets pollution levels, CO2 ppm, GLOBAL Temperature trends with comparison to historical records through science sites are free to do as they wish some sites might post that Earth is okee-dohkee and post a drawing of a happy planet (since they have very few either real science papers or real science graphs backing that the globe is cooling when comparing to historical records not the tricky method of lying and saying 101F is cooler cause it was 102F yesterday though historical records show that the normal HIGH temperature for that area and date is 90F. i could see a few news organizations posting a local kindergarten schools drawings of a happy Earth every few minutes as in this manner they will get few negative comments as who is going to say bad things of children's drawings. Of course that a despicable use of kids imaginations as in hiding behind children so lets see what happens if Earth Health Day is created. OH and like ArBor Day not a official holiday like cinco de mayo we people leave work early to get drunk, though there is one payment expected THAT WE PAY ATTENTION TO WHAT IS HAPPENING TO OUR TRUE HOME, without a healthy Earth ones clandestined home just a minute nativesun is whispering something, psst psst psst we have an Earth Day vis0...go plant yerself pssst pssst. Oh hey just got a breaking news from FOX, Earth Day is in less than 2 days. ***hey someone used my Mothra name idea (posted a month ago and in 201510)as to naming La Nina if its big, cool.  Greetings !The weather in Trinidad.....Another Scorcher here today, with Heat Index at 98F.Small islands are NEVER supposed to be this hot, man !Smoke and haze dominate, with some high cloud overhead coming up from Northern Venezuela.Not looking like rain anytime soon.  a stormy period may be approaching a couple of impulses  Quoting 248. pottery: Greetings !The weather in Trinidad.....Another Scorcher here today, with Heat Index at 98F.Small islands are NEVER supposed to be this hot, man !Smoke and haze dominate, with some high cloud overhead coming up from Northern Venezuela.Not looking like rain anytime soon. yeah that front pulled too far away fast almost blizzard from it in newfoundland today the rolling shifted west of ya anyway i am sure eventually rains will come till then dust smoke rum  st john's newfoundland Canada Issued: 4:00 PM NDT Wednesday 20 April 2016Winter storm warning in effect. DateDetailed ForecastTonight Snow at times heavy ending overnight then cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Blowing snow over exposed areas this evening. Amount 10 to 15 cm except 5 cm along the southern shore. Wind north 60 km/h gusting to 80 except gusting to 100 along parts of the coast this evening. Wind becoming northwest 30 gusting to 50 near midnight. Temperature steady near minus 2. Thu, 21 Apr Mainly cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers or drizzle late in the afternoon. Wind west 20 km/h becoming light in the morning. High plus 1. UV index 4 or moderate. Night Cloudy. Periods of freezing rain beginning in the evening then changing to periods of rain after midnight. Fog patches developing in the evening. Rainfall amount 2 to 4 mm. Wind becoming north 20 km/h in the evening then northeast 30 gusting to 50 overnight. Low zero with temperature rising to plus 2 by morning.  Quoting 250. KEEPEROFTHEGATE: yeah that front pulled too far away fast the rolling shifted west of ya anyway i am sure eventually rains will come till then dust smoke rum LOLOL, yeah !And plenty liquids in between.In the meantime, the Calabash tree is looking Naked. Along with plenty other trees around here.This dry season has not been severe from a rainfall or duration point of view, but the temperature sure is.The vegetation is suffering big time from the heat.Plants just can't take it.  Quoting 251. KEEPEROFTHEGATE: st john's newfoundland Canada Issued: 4:00 PM NDT Wednesday 20 April 2016Winter storm warning in effect. DateDetailed ForecastTonight Snow at times heavy ending overnight then cloudy with 60 percent chance of flurries. Blowing snow over exposed areas this evening. Amount 10 to 15 cm except 5 cm along the southern shore. Wind north 60 km/h gusting to 80 except gusting to 100 along parts of the coast this evening. Wind becoming northwest 30 gusting to 50 near midnight. Temperature steady near minus 2. Thu, 21 Apr Mainly cloudy. 60 percent chance of showers or drizzle late in the afternoon. Wind west 20 km/h becoming light in the morning. High plus 1. UV index 4 or moderate. Night Cloudy. Periods of freezing rain beginning in the evening then changing to periods of rain after midnight. Fog patches developing in the evening. Rainfall amount 2 to 4 mm. Wind becoming north 20 km/h in the evening then northeast 30 gusting to 50 overnight. Low zero with temperature rising to plus 2 by morning. THE ICE AGE IS APON UZ!!  Quoting 252. pottery: LOLOL, yeah !And plenty liquids in between.In the meantime, the Calabash tree is looking Naked. Along with plenty other trees around here.This dry season has not been severe from a rainfall or duration point of view, but the temperature sure is.The vegetation is suffering big time from the heat.Plants just can't take it. that's going to be the big problem heat will kill off the plants as new different ones take over like cactus maybe  Quoting 245. hydrus: Long way out....Severe weather would be certain, and bad......Notice the return flow..and 999 mb low... We'll watch it. I like looking at these possible severe weather outlooks (gives us something to do outside hurricane season). The big hail storm/wind damage event that caused billions of dollars in damage in Texas and Oklahoma was predicted (to the trained eye) a solid week in advance by the GFS model. And by predicted I mean the setup looked like there would be a high probability of severe weather. The SPC only went with a "Slight" chance of severe weather on both days (Sunday and Monday 10th-11th) but then later ungraded the chances to enhanced on each day.  more like the last gasps of cold air for this season anyway now we wait till fall to get cold air once the suns sets back for winter  Canadian Fire Season Starts Far too Early as Fort St. John Residents are Forced to Flee the FlamesIt’s been a ridiculously hot Winter and Spring for most of Western and Northern Canada. And in many locations, odd, Summer-like conditions are already starting to dominate. For these regions — areas sitting on piles of dry vegetation or thawing permafrost — a single hot day, thunderstorm, or even just the melting away of the Winter snow is now enough to spur the eruption of wildfires.Link  Quoting 257. RobertWC: Canadian Fire Season Starts Far too Early as Fort St. John Residents are Forced to Flee the FlamesIt’s been a ridiculously hot Winter and Spring for most of Western and Northern Canada. And in many locations, odd, Summer-like conditions are already starting to dominate. For these regions — areas sitting on piles of dry vegetation or thawing permafrost — a single hot day, thunderstorm, or even just the melting away of the Winter snow is now enough to spur the eruption of wildfires.Link That's not good... Been to Fort St. John a few times as it is on the Alaska-Canada HIghway or AlCan... I might add that there are not a whole lot of other road options in that area. We had a plane crash in Anchorage today (small plane) where 4 people were killed and it sparked a fire that luckily was able to be contained quickly. They were scared it would get out of control because of how dry things are around here. Unless you are BBQing, outdoor fires are prohibited here. Keep - That does not look like a spring photo of Foxtrap....  Quoting 261. Dakster: That's not good... Been to Fort St. John a few times as it is on the Alaska-Canada HIghway or AlCan... I might add that there are not a whole lot of other road options in that area. We had a plane crash in Anchorage today (small plane) where 4 people were killed and it sparked a fire that luckily was able to be contained quickly. They were scared it would get out of control because of how dry things are around here. Unless you are BBQing, outdoor fires are prohibited here. Keep - That does not look like a spring photo of Foxtrap.... no that's one of those more like o my god its still not winter out whats going on now days  Is that weather coming towards you in Toronto?  The warm March in DC led to early bud break and local vegetation was two weeks advanced by Early April. This was followed by freezes 4/5, 4/6 and 4/9. The freeze of 4/6 was radiative. 4/5 and 4/9 were advective. Conditions were worst 4/6I'm surprised not to be seeing more comment on it but the freeze 4/6 looks to be a local disaster for some wild species. Black Locust, Catalpa and Mulberry remain almost leafless with a few green shoots scattered among the brown branches. Wisteria leafout looks delayed at least two weeks. Some sycamores look bad too but sycamore often looks bad for unknown reasons and then recovers fine. Oaks, maples, sweetgums, poplar, willow, hawthorn and conifers look okay but mulberry is a major food plant for birds in late spring.. not this year.My peach tree looks fine and its remarkable how well garden plants came through while forest species were hammered.This is the worst freeze damage I have ever seen in the local forests in fifty years. To put this in perspective though, a similar situation in the upper South esp TN, in April 2007 was much worse. There were areas where most of the hardwoods just leafing out, (most species including oaks) were frozen and lost their leaves and shoots and had to put out new buds several weeks later delaying greenup well into May (this from local agricultural reports)  2016/15 compare05 for mirror  Quoting 265. Dakster: Is that weather coming towards you in Toronto? no no no nothing too see here just a figment of your imagination  84.1F/28.94C here right now.... 87F/30.56C at the Airport (KRAL) RH 8-12% sweet, no cooling yet  DCI Group Subpoenaed in Expanding Exxon Climate Denial InvestigationDCI Group is the latest group subpoenaed in an expanding investigation by state attorneys general into the funding of climate change denial by ExxonMobil, according to court filings reviewed by the Center for Media and Democracy (CMD).ExxonMobil has now received separate subpoenas from both the New York and U.S. Virgin Islands U.S. Attorneys’ Offices. The Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) and DCI Group have also been subpoenaed by the U.S. Virgin Islands for records relating to their role in helping ExxonMobil wth climate change denial. Link  Quoting 268. KEEPEROFTHEGATE: no no no nothing too see here just a figment of your imagination I am tempted to take off the snow tires, but then I see things like that... Unless something happens before then, by May 1 we are supposed to have them off. I've waited to buy garden stuff as the last time I bought spring/summer stuff we got 10" of snow. Hey Ped!!! Nice temps for you... Our range is low 30s to mid 50s, which is perfect for me.  Cleared out and sunny in Houston/Galveston region after .50- 1.00 of rain earlier  Australia’s National Coral Bleaching Taskforce has released its first comprehensive map of the Great Barrier Reef’s bleached corals—revealing that a large portion of the reef has been slightly to severely damaged.Link  Keep - Spring in Wyoming...  2016 warmer than 05 for now lets see how it goes T-41 days till Hurricane season begins with storm 1 already on the books  I know still some winter weather out and about  Quoting 274. Dakster: Keep - Spring in Wyoming... if I get snow in may in Toronto I am moving to Alaska right next door  Quoting 272. RitaEvac: Cleared out and sunny in Houston/Galveston region after .50- 1.00 of rain earlier not so bad  Quoting 266. georgevandenberghe: The warm March in DC led to early bud break and local vegetation was two weeks advanced by Early April. This was followed by freezes 4/5, 4/6 and 4/9. The freeze of 4/6 was radiative. 4/5 and 4/9 were advective. Conditions were worst 4/6I'm surprised not to be seeing more comment on it but the freeze 4/6 looks to be a local disaster for some wild species. Black Locust, Catalpa and Mulberry remain almost leafless with a few green shoots scattered among the brown branches. Wisteria leafout looks delayed at least two weeks. Some sycamores look bad too but sycamore often looks bad for unknown reasons and then recovers fine. Oaks, maples, sweetgums, poplar, willow, hawthorn and conifers look okay but mulberry is a major food plant for birds in late spring.. not this year.My peach tree looks fine and its remarkable how well garden plants came through while forest species were hammered.This is the worst freeze damage I have ever seen in the local forests in fifty years. To put this in perspective though, a similar situation in the upper South esp TN, in April 2007 was much worse. There were areas where most of the hardwoods just leafing out, (most species including oaks) were frozen and lost their leaves and shoots and had to put out new buds several weeks later delaying greenup well into May (this from local agricultural reports) Yep..I am sorry to hear this. I know how bad it is. It appears we have been spared for now, but way to early to tell. May freezes have occurred and were severe...1944 and 1984 being the worst.  Quoting 277. KEEPEROFTHEGATE: if I get snow in may in Toronto I am moving to Alaska right next door It's warm here... Bring Palm trees with you... The local stuff is dieing out because it's too warm. Even the Moose are moving further North. (big study on how Climate Change has affected the migration patterns here)  Quoting 280. Dakster: It's warm here... Bring Palm trees with you... The local stuff is dieing out because it's too warm. Even the Moose are moving further North. (big study on how Climate Change has affected the migration patterns here) every thing changes nothing will stay the same  Quoting 267. KEEPEROFTHEGATE: 2016/15 compare05 for mirrorI don't know how the steering currents will be, nor the wind shear, but if those got into place, a storm that moved along the Eastern Seaboard could get real intense with the heat available there. While Super Storm Sandy was bad, at strong and large land falling cat II or weak Cat III between DC and New York would be tough hit. I just don't know if they would have the resources to recover in a timely manner, and I suspect it would be rough for the whole U.S. economy.  Quoting 282. washingtonian115: can you get a 05 compare for that wash does that site archive  Quoting 284. KEEPEROFTHEGATE: can you get a 05 compare for that wash does that site archive The site only goes back to 2011 unfortunately.I've checked each map for this day (April 20th) going back to 2011 and 2016 blows each one of them out of the water so far.We better hope the caribbean stays closed this year because we wouldn't want any storm tapping into those waters.  The AMOL TCHP site only goes back 5 years to 2011,..and comparing the Basin in April now to 05 is kinda pointless.  Quoting 263. KEEPEROFTHEGATE: no that's one of those more like o my god its still not winter out whats going on now days When Christmas day can be described as hot and humid with a family fight over whether to turn the AC on.. (in Maryland, not Florida!), yeah, what's going on.  Quoting 280. Dakster: It's warm here... Bring Palm trees with you... The local stuff is dieing out because it's too warm. Even the Moose are moving further North. (big study on how Climate Change has affected the migration patterns here) Still waiting for fire ants to colonize DC.  .  Quoting 286. Patrap: The AMOL TCHP site only goes back 5 years top 2011..and comparing the Basin in April now to 05 is kinda pointless. I am not doing it for any particular reason its just that few weeks back as I was watching I started comparing and 05 just happen to stick out as to how similar it looked in its portrayal that's all and now I am just kinda watching it to see how it compares till jun anyway maybe further depending on when we start to see action  Quoting 288. georgevandenberghe: Still waiting for fire ants to colonize DC. lol  222. cRRKampen: Given the fact that TS Amos (as it's been christened) should remain a fish storm actually there is the possibility that Rotuma, Wallis, and maybe American Samoa will get some impact from Amos.  Capital Weather GangChristmas weather records in D.C. likely to be toppled in freakishly mild DecemberBy Jason Samenow December 23, 2015 Every day but one this December has been warmer than average in Washington, D.C. and it’s likely the last 8 days of the month will all feature milder than normal temperatures. This December is destined finish as the warmest on record, by a substantial margin, and the warmth climaxes on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.Temperatures at times will be more than 30 degrees above normal and numerous records are in jeopardy.The warmth is a result of a flow of air straight from the deep tropics, circulated by an area of high pressure near Bermuda – more typical of summertime:  latest warnings for newfoundland Winter storm warning in effect for: %u2022St. John's and vicinityHeavy snowfall and high winds are expected.Snow, heavy at times, and strong northerly winds will spread westward into western Newfoundland this evening ahead of a storm approaching from the east. Total snowfall accumulations by Thursday morning are forecast to be near 40 cm over the northern Avalon Peninsula. Over the northeast coast, totals will range from 25 to 35 cm. Winds are forecast to gust to between 80 and 120 km/h this evening. This combination of strong winds and heavy snow will cause reduce visibilities in blowing snow, especially over exposed areas.Precipitation is forecast to taper to flurries by Thursday morning.In addition, high waves and pounding surf are expected this evening along the eastern coast from Cape Freels to Ferryland.Consider postponing non-essential travel until conditions improve. Rapidly accumulating snow will make travel difficult.Winter storm warnings are issued when multiple types of severe winter weather are expected to occur together.Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to weatherNLWO@ec.gc.ca or tweet reports to #NLwx.  It was 6 years ago tonight BP's Deep Water Horizon Exploded and lives were lost.And more lives and wildlife lost in the months after and even today.  All good news!Quoting 164. VirginIslandsVisitor: Good morning from St. Thomas!It's an 82, feeling like 84, light breezes and a little overcast on the island today. Looking out from the cams today, there are two ships docked in the harbor so far. Won't be too bad traffic wise. LinkLife on the island is gearing up for Carnival 2016 this year. It will be shown online. Will post the site when I get it. I really do want to show off the head dresses my friend and I have created using 3-D pens. My other half is doing so well since his heart attack a few weeks ago. Still having what he refers to as his "old man naps" every afternoon but I keep telling him his body has to recover.AND, on another note to everyone. I FINALLY received an email from sar2401 and all is okay! Will leave what he's been up to for him to tell. Hope all is good with everybody!Lindy  Quoting 291. KEEPEROFTHEGATE: lol They could survive in the heat island core now but even there conditions are marginal. For now!  Quoting 293. Patrap: Capital Weather GangChristmas weather records in D.C. likely to be toppled in freakishly mild DecemberBy Jason Samenow December 23, 2015 Every day but one this December has been warmer than average in Washington, D.C. and it’s likely the last 8 days of the month will all feature milder than normal temperatures. This December is destined finish as the warmest on record, by a substantial margin, and the warmth climaxes on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.Temperatures at times will be more than 30 degrees above normal and numerous records are in jeopardy.The warmth is a result of a flow of air straight from the deep tropics, circulated by an area of high pressure near Bermuda – more typical of summertime: I can tell you, Christmas Eve was hot!  I bet it was did the ac get turned on  Quoting 192. Barefootontherocks: Someday you all will learn you are no more important than a fruit fly. Quoting 238. TheBigBanana: What is wrong with you? Thank you for your response to my comment 192. I do not consider it a defect to have experienced the Oneness of Existence while walking barefoot on a rocky beach.Thinking others defective promotes hatred. Global warming discussions rife with partisan politics and hatred leave no room for understanding the pieces of the puzzle.On second thought, perhaps you are suggesting TheBigBanana would not wish to consider the fruit fly an equal...“Time flies like an arrow; fruit flies like a banana”~Groucho Marx  Quoting 288. georgevandenberghe: Still waiting for fire ants to colonize DC. They're right behind the Formosa Termites.  bf don't freak em out come on now  Quoting 285. washingtonian115: The site only goes back to 2011 unfortunately.I've checked each map for this day (April 20th) going back to 2011 and 2016 blows each one of them out of the water so far.We better hope the caribbean stays closed this year because we wouldn't want any storm tapping into those waters. It does go back to 2005:LinkJust isn't obvious to get to. 2005:2016:  I do not consider it a defect to have experienced the Oneness of Existence while walking barefoot on a rocky beach.And all this time I thought you couldn't afford shoes.  Quoting 237. Dakster: One would hope NOT... but anything is possible. I was not as anxious about the hurricane season from 013-015 ut this season I'm anxious to see what 2016 brings to the plate with the la nina coming on and the favorable conditions being predicted closer to home with pipping sst.Plus I have property in down in hurricane country this time around so the deck of cards I'm dealing with is a lot thicker. 306. vis0  Check out that oil (meMex shared) explosion in Veracruz. Mx  Deleted, #303 covered it.  Hurricane Cindy Struck first week of July here in 2005.  India drought: '330 million people affected'The drought is taking place as a heat wave extends across much of India with temperatures crossing 40C for days now.An 11-year-old girl died of heatstroke while collecting water from a village pump in the western Maharashtra state.Yogita Desai had spent close to four hours in 42C temperatures gathering water from the pump on Sunday, local journalist Manoj Sapte told the BBC.She began vomiting after returning home and was rushed to hospital, but died early on Monday.Yogita's death certificate says she died of heatstroke and dehydration.The pump was a mere 500m from her house, but a typical wait for water stretches into hours. Link  Quoting 308. Patrap: Hurricane Cindy Struck first week of July here in 2005. lets just hope its not that way I say as yerself hurricane regions prepare pre season as always best defense  Quoting 304. RobertWC: I do not consider it a defect to have experienced the Oneness of Existence while walking barefoot on a rocky beach.And all this time I thought you couldn't afford shoes. Thank you.:)That's the nicest thing you've ever said to me.Ps. First line in quote is quoting me at 300.  March Continues Streak of Exceptional Global WarmthPublished: April 19th, 2016 As representatives of the world’s nations prepare to gather later this week to sign a landmark agreement to limit the human-caused warming of the planet, global temperature records continue to pile up.Not only was March 2016 handily the warmest March on record, according to data released Tuesday by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, but the year to date has also been record warm.The planet’s temperature for January through March was 1.15°C (2.07°F) above the 20th century average for the same period, according to NOAA. That puts it above the halfway mark to the stated goal of limiting warming to under 2°C (3.6°F) by the end of this century.While an exceptionally strong El Niño has given global temperatures a slight boost, the majority of the temperature rise is due to the excess heat trapped in the atmosphere by accumulating greenhouse gases, research has shown.NOAA reported the March global temperature at 2.20°F (1.22°C) above the 20th century average, besting the previous record warm March of last year by 0.58°F (0.32°C).The U.S. Is Experiencing Its Third Warmest Year-to-DateThis number differed slightly from those reported by NASA and the Japan Meteorological Agency, as each group has different methods for processing the temperature data. NASA put March at 2.3°F (1.28°C) above the average from 1951-1980 and the JMA reported it was 1.93°F (1.07°C) above the 20th century average.By NOAA’s reckoning, March was the most anomalously warm month on record, measuring 0.02°F (0.01°C) above February. NASA still rated February as the record holder. The nine biggest temperature departures have all occurred within the last nine months, NOAA said.In NOAA’s 135 years of records, March became the first time that 11 months in a row have set a monthly record, besting the previous such streak of 10 months set in 1944.According to NASA data, March was the sixth month consecutive month that was more than 1°C above average. By NOAA’s data, it was the fourth. It’s possible that April could continue the streak.“I would say it's very likely through April, but not 100 percent for certain,” Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist with ERT, Inc., at NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information, said.In its monthly release, NOAA also noted that both North America and Australia had a record warm March, while the other continents (except Antarctica) were in the top 10.For the contiguous U.S., March was the fourth warmest on record; the area is currently experiencing its third warmest year to date.The incredible heat of the last few months has spurred speculation that 2016 will best 2015 as the hottest year on record. Whether that happens depends in part on how quickly El Niño decays and whether or not it leads to a La Niña event (which tends to cool global temperatures) later in the year.“These extreme elevated temperatures may continue for another couple of months as El Niño continues its decline,” Blunden said. “It's really not possible to guess how the whole year will play out, especially if we move into a La Niña as many scientists seems to be predicting.”  Aaaaand here come the political post....  My brothers and sisters were exceptional people-in every endeavor. Our parents were never ones to boast or make us think we exceptional or better in any way. I do remember when any of us began taking ourselves too seriously, she would always say, "Remember, a peacock today; a feather duster tomorrow." I do believe, or want to believe, that simple expression gave me the humility and compassion with which I hope to live my life.I'm going to take my nap now.  Cold anomalies now starting to show.  Weather may be "fake" , but spam is very real.  Point well taken, washi. I took it down.  Great Barrier Reef: Federal, Queensland governments not listening to scientists, 'Godfather of Coral' saysThe Queensland and Federal governments are not listening to scientists about the mass coral bleaching hitting the Great Barrier Reef, a renowned researcher says.Dr Charlie Veron, a prominent marine scientist who is known as the "Godfather of Coral" for having discovered about one-third of all coral species in the world, described the severe bleaching across the northern reef as "gut-wrenching".Dr Veron said he was angry the Great Barrier Reef was not being made a priority."Governments are being anything but up-front — they're behaving like a mob of drunken sailors," he said. Link  can ya take out the quotes regarding the 313 post that user has been banned  Fairbanks, AK The old climate was 48F high 23F low. It's 58.3 °F, but look at the ten day forecast :Link  Quoting 321. KEEPEROFTHEGATE: can ya take out the quotes regarding the 313 post that user has been banned Like a duck on a June bug.  SLS/Orion is becoming a reality as all the first rocket components are in production for the 2018 First Flight.Larger view  Extraordinary Heat Wave Sweeps Southeast Asia and Points BeyondWhat is most likely the most intense heat wave ever observed in Southeast Asia has been ongoing for the past several weeks. All-time national heat records have been observed in Cambodia, Laos, and (almost) in Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, and Vietnam. Meanwhile extreme heat has resulted in all-time record high temperatures in the Maldives, India, China, and portions of Africa as well. Here are the details.Link  Quoting 295. Patrap: It was 6 years ago tonight BP's Deep Water Horizon Exploded and lives were lost.And more lives and wildlife lost in the months after and even today. You shouldn't have mentioned this anniversary, Pat ;-)Mexico explosion: Blast at Pemex Veracruz oil plantBBC, 1 hour ago  I believe it was KEEPEROFTHEGATE that showed a possible severe weather setup for next week. It does look like we could have a few days of severe weather late next week (subject to major changes being more than a week out).But the GFS is showing a pretty nice punch of cold air being pulled down by a developing low in West Texas or S.W. Oklahoma. I know it's far out in time, but it's something to watch. Note all the warm air setup across the Eastern U.S. That should provide a nice moist setup to be pulled into the system. 329. vis0  Quoting 139. hydrus: Greetings jo.. Your theory, while seemingly feasible , is not the problem. The Earths core and mantle temperature has been the same for a very long time. What happens at the surface " crust " has more to do with plate tectonics, earthquakes, and volcanoes, and while volcanoes can affect the worlds climate significantly, the Earths mantle temp has very little if any impact on the climate.If you want a significant theory that points to the seriousness about what is happening, complex math, Cryosphere observations, core and atmospheric readings, and huge amounts of research on Milankovitch Cycles suggest had we not put so much C02 into the atmosphere, we would be on a cooling trend, not a warmer one. With that being said, it is a game of Russian roulette, and doing something to clean things up is a definite step in the right direction....Besides, its hard to be cool in a really hot and dirty place..:) Don't forget the warmth/heat being given of due to the interaction of the "solid" core warming and the fluid layers moving in & out (excuse my unscientific words) creates in part the magnetic field so the heat is being used for something even before it reaches the thinner crust...not to mention the heating cooling going on under the mantels is not even but the world is warming as a whole, its not global half warming & global half cooling. These blobs (THERE GOES GROTHARS WORD AGAIN) have been doing this for billions of years so what would cause them to only warn all of a sudden?Blob is becoming to Grothar as "that's hot!" was to Paris Hilton.  Quoting 327. barbamz: You shouldn't have mentioned this anniversary, Pat ;-)Mexico explosion: Blast at Pemex Veracruz oil plantBBC, 1 hour ago Lordy, thats a big one barbamz.Could have been the catcracker's reformer or regenerator unit.  Quoting 312. Patrap: March Continues Streak of Exceptional Global WarmthPublished: April 19th, 2016 And it's us:Study: humans have caused all the global warming since 1950A new study published in Climate Dynamics has found that humans are responsible for virtually all of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century. It’s not a novel result – in fact, most global warming attribution studies have arrived at the same general result – but this study uses a new approach.The percentage contribution to global warming over the past 50-65 years in two categories: human causes (left) and natural causes (right), from various peer-reviewed studies. The studies are Tett et al. 2000 (T00, dark blue), Meehl et al. 2004 (M04, red), Stone et al. 2007 (S07, green), Lean and Rind 2008 (LR08, purple), Huber and Knutti 2011 (HK11, light blue), Gillett et al. 2012 (G12, orange), Wigley and Santer 2012 (WG12, dark green), Jones et al. 2013 (J13, pink), IPCC AR5 (IPCC, light green), and Ribes et al. 2016 (R16, light purple). The numbers are best estimates from each study. Illustration: Dana Nuccitelli  Sadly we lost two local flyers doing mosquito spray flying on the N shore last night that crashed while landing near the Airport there. Pilot (and friend) killed in Slidell airplane crash 'lived doing what he loved,' sheriff says  326. GearstsYour top chart is really interesting, look at all that cold water coming down the tip of Greenland, and hugging the coast . But warm water just to the South . And the "Cold Blob" to the Southeast. The North Atlantic is having it's 19th Nervous Breakdown.  Better, Washi?An animated gif of Galileo's sunspot observations, demonstrating for the first time the rotation of the sun (December 1612 - Jan 1613)  Quoting 330. Patrap: Lordy, thats a big one barbamz.Could have been the catcracker's reformer or regenerator unit.At least 40 injured in blast at Mexico petrochemical facilityReuters, World | Wed Apr 20, 2016 7:04pm EDT  Quoting 328. Sfloridacat5: I believe it was KEEPEROFTHEGATE that showed a possible severe weather setup for next week. It does look like we could have a few days of severe weather late next week (subject to major changes being more than a week out).But the GFS is showing a pretty nice punch of cold air being pulled down by a developing low in West Texas or S.W. Oklahoma. I know it's far out in time, but it's something to watch. Note all the warm air setup across the Eastern U.S. That should provide a nice moist setup to be pulled into the system. heat with it storms  Photographs of San Francisco taken April 20, 1906, two days after the earthquake.  Quoting 316. tiggerhurricanes2001: Cold anomalies now starting to show. yes chilling well wunder what a fast flip could do  Quoting 322. RobertWC: Fairbanks, AK The old climate was 48F high 23F low. It's 58.3 °F, but look at the ten day forecast :Link DOOM  maybe a couple of impulses got to watch that's all we can do  Nino 1+2 are already in La Nina territory.  Okay something weird just happened to the blog again o_0?.Yep Baltimore we know how nasty things can get on here.I'm just waiting on the rain because now I can see a thick layer of pollen on multiple surfaces and the pollen count its self has been very high.The next best chance is Friday morning.  Quoting 343. washingtonian115: Okay something weird just happened to the blog again o_0?.Yep Baltimore we know how nasty things can get on here.I'm just waiting on the rain because now I can see a thick layer of pollen on multiple surfaces and the pollen count its self has been very high.The next best chance is Friday morning. My comments for about 10 mins or so hadn't been appearing. Everything, ( i hope) is working now.  last of winters season cold air  Climate change brings more pleasant weather to U.S. - for nowSource: Reuters - Wed, 20 Apr 2016 17:00 GMTWASHINGTON, April 20 (Reuters) - Researchers have a message for Americans who like the milder winters and agreeable summers experienced in most of the United States since the 1970s thanks to global climate change: enjoy it while you can.Eighty percent of Americans live in areas experiencing weather that is more pleasant than four decades ago, with balmier winters along with summers that are no more humid and only marginally warmer, researchers said on Wednesday.By 2100, however, 88 percent of Americans will face weather considerably less comfortable, with summers eventually heating up at a much faster rate than the winters over the course of the 21st century, they found. ...Abstract of this study in "Nature":Recent improvement and projected worsening of weather in the United StatesPatrick J. Egan & Megan Mullin, Nature 532, 357-360 (21 April 2016)Quoting: Our results have implications for the public's understanding of the climate change problem, which is shaped in part by experiences with local weather. Whereas weather patterns in recent decades have served as a poor source of motivation for Americans to demand a policy response to climate change, public concern may rise once people's everyday experiences of climate change effects start to become less pleasant.Well, this should be way too late for the rest of the world ...So no complaints from abroad for now, guys ;-) (j/k) Apropos "complaints": After a couple of very nice days of spring, temperatures in Central Europe (including Germany) will plunge this weekend and next week to below average levels, go figure! So no GW in the last days of April for me, doh. We aren't used to this any more!Temps 850hpa early next week in Europe.Flooding in northeastern Argentina and Uruguay is about to resume, btw. Was too lazy to translate the latest news today, but will do the next days ...Good night with this, sleep well.BTW, science is a good thing :-)Study: People over 40 should only work three days a week20th Apr 2016 6:00 AM 347. IDTH  Quoting 303. Envoirment: It does go back to 2005:LinkJust isn't obvious to get to. 2005:2016: I'll be honest, the Caribbean has been shut down for so long it's almost like a ticking time bomb that's ready to go off. Except the bomb's potential is enhanced over time...... you get the point I tried to make a good analogy but it kind of blew up in my face (no pun intended). When was the last time the Caribbean had a bunch of major hurricanes in that region, 2008/2007. A lot of time has passed since then and the Caribbean has had a lot of warm water that hasn't been tapped into yet. That's scary because If the Caribbean wakes up, which is the big question, if it finally wakes up, that Time bomb is going to cause one heck of an explosion.  My thanks to all of you who attempted to answer, or at least respond, to my post #132, where I hypothesized (I put the word "theory" in quotes, but most didn't understand the significance of that, so I got told a few times I didn't have a theory), or basically asked, if it was possible that internal Earth heating might be slightly warming the Earth's crust, which would obviously heat the ocean water above it, which should eventually heat the atmosphere more.I was mainly looking for information/statistics proving the Earth's interior, mainly the mantle, hasn't been heating up slowly, and maybe a bit faster over the past 50 years, as if such statistics are available, and reasonably reliable, then it would rather quickly disprove my hypothesis, if such temperatures haven't changed at all.No one could do that, which is fine, as I've never seen such statistics, don't even know if they exist or how they would determined, and I imagine almost all of you don't know of them, or where to fine them, either. Xyrus, who made the longest attempt to answer, suggested the IPCC, but one wonders how much they'd be looking at planetary geology, and as such data might refute their current findings anyway.I got a lot of insults about finding my own data, and my unsubstantiated, well... questions, mainly, as I didn't claim to know anything in particular. Xyrus made a lot of comments to the effect that if the earth's mantle heated up five degrees, say, that the effects of it would be obvious and that scientists would be right on it, while not giving any indication of how he'd know that for a fact. I mean, no one could even state categorically that anyone, scientist or no, knows the total temperature of the earth's mantle to any sort of exactitude... and if they don't know that, how would they know how much it's changed over the past 10 years, or 50 years.I got comments like vis0 stating, "not to mention the heating cooling going on under the mantles is not even{,} but the world is warming as a whole; its not global half warming & global half cooling. Someone else "disproved" my hypothesis by saying the water at the bottom of the ocean is colder than at the surface.I would just say one word to answer both those assertions... circulation. Air and water circulate, primarily to equalize their heat across the whole of the system in question, and generally heat rises.Someone said if the ocean crust was heating, why didn't we see that change on land? Well, primarily because land crust is up to five to six times thicker than ocean crust.I stated I think it seems that geologic activity is increasing over the past few decades, and was told it hasn't, and got insulted twice for saying "seems" (where's your proof, fool!). I never said I knew that for a fact, but again, it seems to be the case, especially lately.Whatever the case, I'm pretty much back to where I started. I think it's very possible the earth's core... from there outward... is heating up some. As another poster said, and most of the writeups I've found online say, the Earth's core temperature is an estimate at best... so is the Earth's mantle temperature. As such, how can they possibly tell if the Earth's mantle temp has gone up only 15-20 degrees (a small percentage change), perhaps increasing the crust temperatures 7 degrees, and heating the oceans as a whole, 3 degrees?But with no data given, or that I can find, on specific, accurate measurements of the Earth's total mantle temperature over the last 10-50 years, I can't disprove my own hypothesis. Certainly no one here could, though I do thank the half-dozen or so of you who tried. Jo  Quoting 344. tiggerhurricanes2001: My comments for about 10 mins or so hadn't been appearing. Everything, ( i hope) is working now. thank you for flying twilight zone  .  Quoting 339. PedleyCA: DOOM MELT .  Just another daily RECORD HIGH here in Acme, wa. Yawn. Only made it to 78°, but out in the sun its way to hot for tilling the rest of the garden, waiting for the sun to go down. Low of 45° this morning. Everything is growing like nuts, very excited to see the acorns I collected with my 3yr old nephew last fall are sprouting.  Quoting 351. RobertWC: MELT . Thaw 354. IDTH  ..  RE: Severe next weekSPC published a risk area today for Day 7, aka Tuesday April 26, 2016, for all forms of severe. Once in a while SPC Day 6 and 7 risk areas disappear but not often. Definite bear.Click here for today's complete SPC Day 4-8 Convective OutlookExcerpt...ON TUESDAY/DAY 7. THE MODELS SUGGEST A DRYLINE ORGANIZES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF SOLUTION ALSO SHOWS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADING THE SRN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AND HAVE SHOWN ENOUGH RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY TO ADD A 15 PERCENT CONTOUR FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND NORTH TX...OK...SRN KS...NW AR AND FAR SW MO FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE.  Just a quick clarification of what I'm saying/asking (keeping in mind I'm not saying my hypothesis is correct... I'm just speculating that it might be, and looking for corroboration of some things, or refutation of same)...1) I'm looking for a record of total mantle heat, ala the TCHP numbers for ocean temperatures. I.E., if they haven't changed in 50 years, then my hypothesis is obviously wrong.2) Is there any specific "proof" that it's the atmosphere that's heating the oceans, and not the other way around? I don't know, but maybe there's a scientific/physics proof that it's one way or the other. Is one "direction" more likely than the other? I.E., if it's 90% to 10% that the atmosphere puts heat into the oceans, and not vice versa, my hypothesis gets very weak.That global temperatures appear to be higher during El Nino events would seem to at least indicate that the oceans transfer heat to the atmosphere to some degree (no pun intended).Jo 357. IDTH  Quoting 347. IDTH: I'll be honest, the Caribbean has been shut down for so long it's almost like a ticking time bomb that's ready to go off. Except the bomb's potential (Edit) ISN'T enhanced over time...... you get the point I tried to make a good analogy but it kind of blew up in my face (no pun intended). When was the last time the Caribbean had a bunch of major hurricanes in that region, 2008/2007. A lot of time has passed since then and the Caribbean has had a lot of warm water that hasn't been tapped into yet. That's scary because If the Caribbean wakes up, which is the big question, if it finally wakes up, that Time bomb is going to cause one heck of an explosion. 358. IDTH  Quoting 350. Gearsts: What do you mean when you said?(Except the bomb's potential is enhanced over time) Whoops my bad I corrected it. ISN'T!  .  Quoting 353. PedleyCA: Thaw Huge Methane releases from meting permafrost.  Quoting 348. flibinite: Jo Fail. Unless you can explain the lack of warmth in the deep oceans, your idea can be dismissed.  Hell comes to breakfast.  Quoting 360. Dakster: Huge Methane releases from melting permafrost. Yup, as I said DOOM...........  Quoting 356. flibinite: Just a quick clarification of what I'm saying/asking (keeping in mind I'm not saying my hypothesis is correct... I'm just speculating that it might be, and looking for corroboration of some things, or refutation of same)...1) I'm looking for a record of total mantle heat, ala the TCHP numbers for ocean temperatures. I.E., if they haven't changed in 50 years, then my hypothesis is obviously wrong.2) Is there any specific "proof" that it's the atmosphere that's heating the oceans, and not the other way around? I don't know, but maybe there's a scientific/physics proof that it's one way or the other. Is one "direction" more likely than the other? I.E., if it's 90% to 10% that the atmosphere puts heat into the oceans, and not vice versa, my hypothesis gets very weak.That global temperatures appear to be higher during El Nino events would seem to at least indicate that the oceans transfer heat to the atmosphere to some degree (no pun intended).Jo The atmosphere is not "heating the oceans." That is a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation. Perhaps you should research the entire topic of climate a bit more before implying that scientists don't know what they're doing?  Quoting 362. RobertWC: Hell comes to breakfast. And will stick around for lunch and dinner in all likelihood. Honestly, I think the anti-science propagandists have "won." Unfortunately, we'll all get to share the "trophy."  Quoting 361. Misanthroptimist: Fail. Unless you can explain the lack of warmth in the deep oceans, your idea can be dismissed. Can you explain your reasoning with linked references? I'd like to read them.  Quoting 348. flibinite: I think it's very possible the earth's core... from there outward... is heating up some. Jo What is providing the energy to create the increase in heat? That's a whole lot of mass to increase the temp of. Earthquake and volcanic activity is not inceasingLink LinkWe don't have exact measurements of the mantle, but we do have temps reading from deep mines and bore holes, which would tell scientists if temps were increasing. Circulation wouldn't explain the bottom of the ocean not seeing an increase in temps, that heat energy would still show up as warmer temps lower in the ocean column and working its way up. And, by the way, heat energy moves more easily through the crust vs water, so we would see those increases on land as well, despite the thickness difference.  Quoting 360. Dakster: Huge Methane releases from meting permafrost. Yep..All that warmth in the Arctic circle will no doubt be the main reason. Siberia is literally stuffed with it.  Quoting 342. tiggerhurricanes2001: Nino 1+2 are already in La Nina territory. Unless there is a big shift, this will likely be the fastest switch to Nina in 150 years.  Quoting 369. hydrus: Unless there is a big shift, this will likely be the fastest switch to Nina in 150 years. Big WWB on the models should slow the transition a bit. 371. OKsky  Quoting 348. flibinite:But with no data given, or that I can find, on specific, accurate measurements of the Earth's total mantle temperature over the last 10-50 years, I can't disprove my own hypothesis. Certainly no one here could, though I do thank the half-dozen or so of you who tried. Jo I know exactly what you mean. I think ultra tiny smurfs on bicycles are the actual cause. I can't find any data on that either... also no one here could prove me wrong. Highfives for everyone!!! =P  Quoting 366. Barefootontherocks: Can you explain your reasoning with linked references? I'd like to read them. You want linked references to support my reply to a weird and unsubstantiated hypothesis? That's rich! I'm tempted to link you to a foreign prince who needs some help moving his cash out of his country. It will cost you hardly anything. lolInstead, I'll instruct you to google "Ocean Heat Content" and click on any reputable link you like. What you will find is that the oceans are warming the most in the topmost layer (to 700m), next most between 700 and 2000m, and slowest below that. That is precisely the opposite of what would happen if the preposterous hypothesis being discussed had any validity.  Quoting 371. OKsky: I know exactly what you mean. I think ultra tiny smurfs on bicycles are the actual cause. I can't find any data on that either... also no one here could prove me wrong. Highfives for everyone!!! =P just notice your laser eyed kitty avatar I have a dragon he never misses  Quoting 371. OKsky: I know exactly what you mean. I think ultra tiny smurfs on bicycles are the actual cause. I can't find any data on that either... also no one here could prove me wrong. Highfives for everyone!!! =P Even the bicycles aren't the cause, though. There would be no problem at all if they would just take the baseball cards out of the spokes, you know?  Quoting 365. Misanthroptimist: And will stick around for lunch and dinner in all likelihood. Honestly, I think the anti-science propagandists have "won." Unfortunately, we'll all get to share the "trophy." Thousands on the march. Not in the distant future. But now.  Is almost that time of the year the gfs starts to show a Wilma in every run at 384hours.  Quoting 376. Gearsts: Is almost that time of the year the gfs starts to show a Wilma in every run at 384hours. ghost storms cometh but it is fun ghost storms that is  interlude  Heat from the Earth's interior does not control climate. With citations of course.This is an old myth.  This entire idea that climate change is some far off event . Is a pile of horse manure. It's killing little girls waiting their turn at a well in India.  Quoting 356. flibinite: Jo The heart of the issue here, Jo, is what's called Burden of Proof. From the article:"When two parties are in a discussion and one asserts a claim that the other disputes, the one who asserts has a burden of proof to justify or substantiate that claim. An argument from ignorance occurs when either a proposition is assumed to be true because it has not yet been proved false or a proposition is assumed to be false because it has not yet been proved true. This has the effect of shifting the burden of proof to the person criticizing the proposition."Please note this is not an insult. I am not calling you ignorant, I'm talking about science, and how scientific debate proceeds, by consensus. When you bring your hypothesis, pet theory, or whatever to the table, and say "Prove it's not true", well then as someone pointed out, your case can be summarily dismissed as not having any basis. When people do that, they're not insulting you. They're not attacking you. (In most cases), they are simply stating the obvious, which is that if we had time to track down and disprove every possible idea that can be thrown up on the Internet, then what kind of lives would we have? Also, once again, since there already is a well documented, and well supported working theory about what is causing the warming, then it's redundant to say 'Maybe it's THIS!'. What I don't understand is why you feel it's so necessary to defend CO2 against being accused of causing the warming. What exactly has CO2 done for you, that you must vigorously try to place the blame anywhere else but there? What is your thing for CO2? I'm really curious to know.Edit: Also, what Naga said. Apparently someone already has taken the time to track down and disprove your hypothesis. You're in luck! :)  Quoting 380. KEEPEROFTHEGATE: Uh, Keeperofthegate, I couldn't help but notice that line of showers and storms in the North Texas panhandle in the radar. Would you please take a look at that and tell me if you think that's a bear watch for Houston in terms of severe weather? A carbon copy of what happened on Monday, April 18, perhaps? (No monomania or drama intended)  Quoting 348. flibinite: My thanks to all of you who attempted to answer, or at least respond, to my post #132, where I hypothesized (I put the word "theory" in quotes, but most didn't understand the significance of that, so I got told a few times I didn't have a theory), or basically asked, if it was possible that internal Earth heating might be slightly warming the Earth's crust, which would obviously heat the ocean water above it, which should eventually heat the atmosphere more.The short answer is no. There is no observational data that even remotely lends credence to such a hypothesis. The ancillary effects of crustal heating due to a sudden increase in the planet's internal temperature would have far reaching consequences, most of which would be rather devastating. Not to mention that a) you provide no physical mechanism by which said heating could occur over such a short time period and b) thermal advection of the inner layers of the planet is measured in geological time scales.More recently with advent of high precision GPS and LIDAR systems, there would have been a global or near global distension that would have been impossible to miss with such an increase.And of course, if it was indeed the Earth supplying the additional heat, then the Earth would be radiating more heat into space as well. However, it's been radiating less heat. Furthermore, the troposphere has been warming while the stratosphere has been cooling which points the finger at an atmospheric change. This makes perfect sense if you understand anything about the mean free path of long wave IR in the atmosphere and how greenhouse gases affect it.I was mainly looking for information/statistics proving the Earth's interior, mainly the mantle, hasn't been heating up slowly, and maybe a bit faster over the past 50 years, as if such statistics are available, and reasonably reliable, then it would rather quickly disprove my hypothesis, if such temperatures haven't changed at all.The deepest hole ever drilled by man is the Kole borehole, which barely made it a third of the way through the crust. There are no direct measurements of the mantle, nor will there be anytime soon. However, using some basic physics chemistry to figure out what kind of temperature increase would be needed in the mantle to create 1C of warming at the surface. Take the average thickness and composition of the crust, get an average thermal conductivity, then figure out what kind of heat would be needed to transmit 1C to the surface over a 50 year time frame.I'll save you some work. Some back of the envelope calculations show that pretty much all life on Earth would be dead due to the geological upheaval. That much energy in that short of a time period would literally crack the planet like an egg and cover a fair amount it in lava flows as a result of thermal expansion.No one could do that, which is fine, as I've never seen such statistics, don't even know if they exist or how they would determined, and I imagine almost all of you don't know of them, or where to fine them, either.They don't exist. The best you can find are estimates which are inferred indirectly.Xyrus, who made the longest attempt to answer, suggested the IPCC, but one wonders how much they'd be looking at planetary geology, and as such data might refute their current findings anyway.I recommended the IPCC report as a conservative summation on the state of climate science which, unsurprisingly, also includes a geological component. And no, there are no current or historical research articles making any claims about increased surface temperatures over the past 150 years (or sooner) as a result of core mantle temperature increases. Mainly because it doesn't make any physical sense (we're still here).I got a lot of insults about finding my own data, and my unsubstantiated, well... questions, mainly, as I didn't claim to know anything in particular. They weren't insults. They were refutations. You posted a wild speculation, provided no supporting evidence or research, insulted and cast aspersions on climate science and scientists, then went on to say it was up to us to prove you wrong showing a clear lack of understanding of how science is actually performed. Any one of these alone would get you laughed out of dissertation defense, and all but blacklisted from any reputable science journal.If you're going to post a hypothesis then you better damned well be able to defend it. And if you can't take the critique when someone points out how weak and flimsy it is then perhaps you should take the time to actually research the subject(s) and strengthen it. Seriously, if you can't blog level criticism there's no way you're going to withstand an actual peer review.Xyrus made a lot of comments to the effect that if the earth's mantle heated up five degrees, say, that the effects of it would be obvious and that scientists would be right on it, while not giving any indication of how he'd know that for a fact. I mean, no one could even state categorically that anyone, scientist or no, knows the total temperature of the earth's mantle to any sort of exactitude... and if they don't know that, how would they know how much it's changed over the past 10 years, or 50 years. *sigh* Sorry, but this blog isn't really conducive to posting integral math and physics equations. However, let's keep this simple. You ever see what happens to steel railroad tracks on a hot summer day when they aren't sufficiently gaped for expansion? They look like a pile of bendy straws all twisted and distorted. And that's just a short segment of metal.Your talking about an increase in temperature that's passing through approximately 1.1 x 10^12 cubic meters of liquid and semi liquid nickel and iron covered by a thin crust of mostly silicates. Moreover, you're talking about a change that's happening over an exceedingly short timescale.Here's a list of linear thermal expansion coefficientslinear thermal expansion coefficients. Use these as estimates for the iron and nickel that is theorized to make up most of the planet's interior. This is a very very rough estimate, but should give you an idea.I got comments like vis0 stating, "not to mention the heating cooling going on under the mantles is not even{,} but the world is warming as a whole; its not global half warming & global half cooling. Someone else "disproved" my hypothesis by saying the water at the bottom of the ocean is colder than at the surface.I would just say one word to answer both those assertions... circulation. Air and water circulate, primarily to equalize their heat across the whole of the system in question, and generally heat rises.Your assuming a perfect mixing, which doesn't happen. If there were primary areas where this excess heat was coming to the surface then they would be fairly easy to track down. Sort of like how you can tell someone peed in a cold pool when you suddenly hit a warm spot.Regardless, you still don't appear to have a concept of the scale of energy you're talking about.Someone said if the ocean crust was heating, why didn't we see that change on land? Well, primarily because land crust is up to five to six times thicker than ocean crust.The average crustal thickness of continental areas is 30-40 km, with thicker parts around mountain ranges. The average oceanic crust is 10-20 km, with thicker parts appearing near islands and shelfs.Again, if you look at thermal conductivity, an increase of 1C at 10KM is not going to be 0C at 30 km. Heat doesn't magically go away. Thermodynamics. Even if you stick with oceanic "hotspots" as your reasoning, calculate how much energy it would take to heat the oceans enough to raise global atmospheric temperatures by 1C.Do you see the problem here? Such events wouldn't be small or subtle on the timescales you're proposing. These would be "Hey anyone notice that new continent that just erupted in the middle of Pacific?" type events.I stated I think it seems that geologic activity is increasing over the past few decades, and was told it hasn't, and got insulted twice for saying "seems" (where's your proof, fool!). I never said I knew that for a fact, but again, it seems to be the case, especially lately."Seems" is subjective, which is why you were correctly critiqued for stating it. A subjective observation used to back up a hypothesis has no merit. Especially in light of the fact that the data that "you don't know" is quite easily accessible on a number of geological research sites, including the USGS.And no, geological activity is not on any noticeable uptrend (unless you happen to live in a fracking zone).Whatever the case, I'm pretty much back to where I started. I think it's very possible the earth's core... from there outward... is heating up some.So you're throwing out a very strongly supported scientific theory that has been established, expanded, and reconfirmed underpinned by the findings from a wide domain of the sciences in favor of your unsupported, weak conjecture with nothing but baseless assumptions, an incomplete understanding of the sciences involved, and a wholly unsubscribed physical mechanism by which it could work in a way to actually match reality?That isn't even remotely logical. However, if you wish to pursue your hypotheis I do recommend you get a solid grounding in the sciences and math.As another poster said, and most of the writeups I've found online say, the Earth's core temperature is an estimate at best... so is the Earth's mantle temperature. As such, how can they possibly tell if the Earth's mantle temp has gone up only 15-20 degrees (a small percentage change), perhaps increasing the crust temperatures 7 degrees, and heating the oceans as a whole, 3 degrees?We've covered this. Do the math. Or find a site that has done it for you. Your hypothesis doesn't make any physical sense and certainly doesn't match observations.But with no data given, or that I can find, on specific, accurate measurements of the Earth's total mantle temperature over the last 10-50 years, I can't disprove my own hypothesis. Certainly no one here could, though I do thank the half-dozen or so of you who tried. Jo Again, you fail to understand the scientific process. It is up to you to substantiate your claims (which you haven't). At a Ph.d defense, you don't walk in with a half-baked conjecture and then tell them "prove me wrong!". You'd get kicked out of the program so fast the heat of friction would cause global warming by itself. You go in with your hypothesis, evidence, methods, conclusions and they GRILL you on every single detail. It's a grueling hours long marathon and you'd better know your stuff because they will nail and fail you if you don't.At any rate, any good undergrad calculus based physics text should give you enough of a basis to shoot your own hypothesis down.  Quoting 364. Misanthroptimist: The atmosphere is not "heating the oceans." That is a fundamental misunderstanding of the situation. Perhaps you should research the entire topic of climate a bit more before implying that scientists don't know what they're doing? Come on. Only communists do research. Why do you hate America so much? :D  Quoting 386. Xyrus2000: Come on. Only communists do research. Why do you hate America so much? :D It pulled a knife on me once. I really hate that.ETA: Thanks for post 385. It is one of the best posts I have ever seen on any board, comprehensive, thorough, and understandable. It will probably not sway the target of the post, but I'm sure that I'm not alone in my admiration and gratitude for the work you did and the accuracy you provided.  Quoting 385. Xyrus2000: Sorry, but this blog isn't really conducive to posting integral math and physics equations. I'd like to know why we don't have LaTeX on here. C'mon IBM..  Quoting 383. pureet1948: Uh, Keeperofthegate, I couldn't help but notice that line of showers and storms in the North Texas panhandle in the radar. Would you please take a look at that and tell me if you think that's a bear watch for Houston in terms of severe weather? A carbon copy of what happened on Monday, April 18, perhaps? (No monomania or drama intended) No, because Monday morning's rains came from the WNW, not NW; these rains have an entirely different forcing mechanism that is less likely to stall while still generating copious convection (cold front vs. MCS combined with low-level convergence); the upper-air dynamics are markedly different; there is no fire-hose of moisture pumping off the gulf this time, either.  Quoting 389. jeffs713: No, because Monday morning's rains came from the WNW, not NW; these rains have an entirely different forcing mechanism that is less likely to stall while still generating copious convection (cold front vs. MCS combined with low-level convergence); the upper-air dynamics are markedly different; there is no fire-hose of moisture pumping off the gulf this time, either. Quoting 389. jeffs713: No, because Monday morning's rains came from the WNW, not NW; these rains have an entirely different forcing mechanism that is less likely to stall while still generating copious convection (cold front vs. MCS combined with low-level convergence); the upper-air dynamics are markedly different; there is no fire-hose of moisture pumping off the gulf this time, either. In other words, a more lightweight rain event, sans wind and lightning.  Quoting 385. Xyrus2000:Sorry, but this blog isn't really conducive to posting integral math and physics equations.  Quoting 391. BaltimoreBrian: I suppose if we start beating people over the head with integrals, then we'll really be accused of bullying.  #391 - When do you learn Klingon, BB?  There was a 11 year old girl who died this week. Standing in line for water. She waited for 5 hours. It was over 100 Degrees. I have little patience with whining deniers, this is not some abstract debate. And their sense. of "Fair Play".These are some of the most poorly informed people ever. And they cling to , "Fillfull Ingnorance". I don't have to respect "Fillfull Ingnorance". i beat it with hammer and tongs.  Quoting 393. Dakster: #391 - When do you learn Klingon, BB?  Keeper, When I first read your post fast, I thought it said you spoke alienese flatuently... Must learn.to.slow.down my reading. 397. vis0  Quoting 391. BaltimoreBrian: Quoting 385. Xyrus2000:Sorry, but this blog isn't really conducive to posting integral math and physics equations. CREDIT:: (though not visited site)https://www.tnooz.com/article/sabre-ready-buy-aba cus-likely-target/And why the chicken scratches??? BBrian great NASA images, see BBrian's blog.  One more thing, I have to respect . Stupid , lazy, and dumb. Reading this thread, somehow there was an argument, That Stupid , lazy, and dumb. Has the same weight, as hard work , years of sweat, and a life long effort. And I have to weigh Stupid , lazy, and dumb. As the same as hard work , years of sweat, and a life long effort. Good luck with that.  The images of the summer of 2010 are forever burned into many memories. Thousands of people lost their livelihoods when the BP Deep Horizon oil rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico, killing 11 men and sending hundreds of millions of gallons of oil spewing into the Gulf.The economy took such a beating, Loaves and Fishes in Biloxi could barely keep up with feeding hungry people.“The norm was about 25 to 30, to 40. But when the oil spill came, we got an increase to about 70 to 80. Since then, it's gone into the hundreds,” kitchen manager Charles Smith recalled.The total cover up since day one has continued with BP. The exact amount of oil that was released is a mystery. What was used to hide the oil was much more toxic to all. To this day the public is still in the dark as big corporations rule over everyone's life. http://www.msnewsnow.com/story/31777028/effects-o f-bp-oil-spill-still-felt-6-years-later  For all those engaging in the discussion of the "warming mantle hypothesis": Do not overlook the obvious; keep it simple. Any increase in energy must have a source. The heat within Earth's convective mantle is in relative stable equilibrium with the core and crust. It has been so for many, many millions of years, and the regular occurrences of geologic activity we observe today are simply due to plate tectonics (human modifications due to fracking notwithstanding). Once the number of asteroid impacts ebbed after the Late Heavy Bombardment during the late Hadean eon, any sources of additional energy to the Earth's interior subsided. If the Earth were heating up on the inside, there would need to be a significant added source of energy on par with that of the Late Heavy Bombardment. Sans such energy input, the hypothesis breaks down there. No further investigation is needed.  How do you get your acorns to sprout. Tried the floating method with no results. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks! Also, when is the best weather for planting.Quoting 352. plantmoretrees: Just another daily RECORD HIGH here in Acme, wa. Yawn. Only made it to 78°, but out in the sun its way to hot for tilling the rest of the garden, waiting for the sun to go down. Low of 45° this morning. Everything is growing like nuts, very excited to see the acorns I collected with my 3yr old nephew last fall are sprouting.  Quoting 394. RobertWC: There was a 11 year old girl who died this week. Standing in line for water. She waited for 5 hours. It was over 100 Degrees. I have little patience with whining deniers, this is not some abstract debate. And their sense. of "Fair Play".These are some of the most poorly informed people ever. And they cling to , "Fillfull Ingnorance". I don't have to respect "Fillfull Ingnorance". i beat it with hammer and tongs. Thank you Robert for expressing this. It's been on my mind too after pondering some of the pleas on this blog for us to be nice to climate deniers.From wikipedia: Willful blindness (sometimes called ignorance of law, willful ignorance or contrived ignorance or Nelsonian knowledge) is a term used in law to describe a situation in which a person seeks to avoid civil or criminal liability for a wrongful act by intentionally keeping himself or herself unaware of facts that would render him or her liable.For me this definition is especially appropriate because it includes civil or criminal liability. Are we liable for the little girl dying because of climate change? As uncomfortable as this may sound, we are all liable by virtue of living in a polluting and exploitive society.Rather than acknowledge this, a number of us choose to be willfully blind or disavow our liability by denying the evidence (science) that shows just how culpable we are. There are many reasons for this. For a few individuals, such as Joe Bastardi, it's primarily because of the money. For many others, it's so they can comfortably maintain their world-views or belief systems that justify their parasitic or privileged position over others and our planet. The time has come for these belief systems to go extinct before we all do. So I will not coddle or be nice to denialists who consistently employ willful ignorance and tactful lying.Our whole species is under the ultimate trial right now by the highest court in the land, namely the earth! We need to understand and deeply respect her laws (science). After we do so and start collaborating with her, our vibrant planetary future awaits!  . 404. MahFL  Quoting 381. RobertWC: This entire idea that climate change is some far off event . Is a pile of horse manure. It's killing little girls waiting their turn at a well in India. One girl died, and she probably had an underlying medical condition. Also hot temps already occur in India, her death had nothing to do with climate change.  Quoting 348. flibinite: My thanks to all of you who attempted to answer, or at least respond, to my post #132, where I hypothesized (I put the word "theory" in quotes, but most didn't understand the significance of that, so I got told a few times I didn't have a theory), or basically asked, if it was possible that internal Earth heating might be slightly warming the Earth's crust, which would obviously heat the ocean water above it, which should eventually heat the atmosphere more.I was mainly looking for information/statistics proving the Earth's interior, mainly the mantle, hasn't been heating up slowly, and maybe a bit faster over the past 50 years, as if such statistics are available, and reasonably reliable, then it would rather quickly disprove my hypothesis, if such temperatures haven't changed at all.No one could do that, which is fine, as I've never seen such statistics, don't even know if they exist or how they would determined, and I imagine almost all of you don't know of them, or where to fine them, either. Xyrus, who made the longest attempt to answer, suggested the IPCC, but one wonders how much they'd be looking at planetary geology, and as such data might refute their current findings anyway.I got a lot of insults about finding my own data, and my unsubstantiated, well... questions, mainly, as I didn't claim to know anything in particular. Xyrus made a lot of comments to the effect that if the earth's mantle heated up five degrees, say, that the effects of it would be obvious and that scientists would be right on it, while not giving any indication of how he'd know that for a fact. I mean, no one could even state categorically that anyone, scientist or no, knows the total temperature of the earth's mantle to any sort of exactitude... and if they don't know that, how would they know how much it's changed over the past 10 years, or 50 years.I got comments like vis0 stating, "not to mention the heating cooling going on under the mantles is not even{,} but the world is warming as a whole; its not global half warming & global half cooling. Someone else "disproved" my hypothesis by saying the water at the bottom of the ocean is colder than at the surface.I would just say one word to answer both those assertions... circulation. Air and water circulate, primarily to equalize their heat across the whole of the system in question, and generally heat rises.Someone said if the ocean crust was heating, why didn't we see that change on land? Well, primarily because land crust is up to five to six times thicker than ocean crust.I stated I think it seems that geologic activity is increasing over the past few decades, and was told it hasn't, and got insulted twice for saying "seems" (where's your proof, fool!). I never said I knew that for a fact, but again, it seems to be the case, especially lately.Whatever the case, I'm pretty much back to where I started. I think it's very possible the earth's core... from there outward... is heating up some. As another poster said, and most of the writeups I've found online say, the Earth's core temperature is an estimate at best... so is the Earth's mantle temperature. As such, how can they possibly tell if the Earth's mantle temp has gone up only 15-20 degrees (a small percentage change), perhaps increasing the crust temperatures 7 degrees, and heating the oceans as a whole, 3 degrees?But with no data given, or that I can find, on specific, accurate measurements of the Earth's total mantle temperature over the last 10-50 years, I can't disprove my own hypothesis. Certainly no one here could, though I do thank the half-dozen or so of you who tried. Jo Good luck in your endeavor, how about changes in solar energy, as our Solar System travels through our galaxy, and I don't mean just the change in solar energy from our own star. Their are exciting times ahead, as our species begins it's journey into the future, hopefully in the near future we will have a better understanding of all the variables that can effect our planet.  Quoting 396. Dakster: Keeper, When I first read your post fast, I thought it said you spoke alienese flatuently... Must learn.to.slow.down my reading. Or adjust your diet.  all this bottled up heatcould be a terrible yr for atlantic hurricanes. good luck all.  Quoting 405. NativeSun: Good luck in your endeavor, how about changes in solar energy, as our Solar System travels through our galaxy, and I don't mean just the change in solar energy from our own star. Their are exciting times ahead, as our species begins it's journey into the future, hopefully in the near future we will have a better understanding of all the variables that can effect our planet. LOL! I guess there's always hope that nearly all climatologists on the planet are incompetent and have missed something vital. It doesn't seem too likely, but I guess there's a certain segment of humanity that has to cling to that hope.Strangely, that segment seldom publishes in (or even reads) the scientific journals. Probably a coincidence.  Quoting 371. OKsky: I know exactly what you mean. I think ultra tiny smurfs on bicycles are the actual cause. I can't find any data on that either... also no one here could prove me wrong. Highfives for everyone!!! =P Why the insults? Do you believe the ENSO phases affect the Earths temps? And the oceans are the drivers, not the atmosphere.  After a very slow start to severe weather season, it looks like things will shift into high gear next week and likely into May. The SPC has highlighted the middle of next week (Tue-Thurs) as all having severe weather potential. Time will tell if this threat materializes, but the pattern itself is becoming much more conducive.  Quoting 402. VibrantPlanet: Thank you Robert for expressing this. It's been on my mind too after pondering some of the pleas on this blog for us to be nice to climate deniers.From wikipedia: Willful blindness (sometimes called ignorance of law, willful ignorance or contrived ignorance or Nelsonian knowledge) is a term used in law to describe a situation in which a person seeks to avoid civil or criminal liability for a wrongful act by intentionally keeping himself or herself unaware of facts that would render him or her liable.For me this definition is especially appropriate because it includes civil or criminal liability. Are we liable for the little girl dying because of climate change? As uncomfortable as this may sound, we are all liable by virtue of living in a polluting and exploitive society.Rather than acknowledge this, a number of us choose to be willfully blind or disavow our liability by denying the evidence (science) that shows just how culpable we are. There are many reasons for this. For a few individuals, such as Joe Bastardi, it's primarily because of the money. For many others, it's so they can comfortably maintain their world-views or belief systems that justify their parasitic or privileged position over others and our planet. The time has come for these belief systems to go extinct before we all do. So I will not coddle or be nice to denialists who consistently employ willful ignorance and tactful lying.Our whole species is under the ultimate trial right now by the highest court in the land, namely the earth! We need to understand and deeply respect her laws (science). After we do so and start collaborating with her, our vibrant planetary future awaits! Please, you do realize there a thousands of children dying everyday from lack of water or food, this has very little to do with climate change, but a whole lot more with the fact that the parents are too poor to supply their children with the barest food sources to keep them alive and growing. Overpopulation and poverty are the real killers of all the children and adults dying, and a part of climate change is also caused by overpopulation.  Quoting 409. NativeSun: Why the insults? Do you believe the ENSO phases affect the Earths temps? And the oceans are the drivers, not the atmosphere. Sorry, it's not the oceans.Oh, and pointing out a logical failure through satire isn't an insult. It's instructive, and in the case you quote gentle and humorous.  Half of all the coral on the Great Barrier Reef is either dead or dying. El Niño killed them. More would be dead except a hurricane came through and cooled the water.Looking at the heat in the Carribean, if we don't get something to break that heat, the reefs there will suffer as well. I might note, I snorkels in Key West in 1984, and again in 2009. I will not bother again, it is a moon scape. I snorkeled in Roatan Hondurus in 2000 and again in 2010. I will not bother, so much had been lost. (A lot was poor protection from tourist, some was pollution.) On the same cruise we hit some reefs on the Yucatan. They were bleached or dead. Howeve, I suspect that a lot of that damage was from Wilma, but I do not have education to know one way or another.Last year we cruised Grenada and the Grenadines. I don't have an older experience to measure against, and we had winds, great for sailing but the waves kept the water silty. I was not impressed with the reefs, but if I get the chance to go back to the Grenadines I will certainly take it.I say all that to say, the reefs I have seen are not in great shape, a heat induced bleach will be tough, maybe even real tough on the entire Eco system of the Caribean.CheersQazulight  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a mass migration out of India in our life time.  Quoting 404. MahFL: One girl died, and she probably had an underlying medical condition. Also hot temps already occur in India, her death had nothing to do with climate change. Temps up to 8° C above climate, oh it's just weather and it's just a medical condition, sure. End of this century (at the very last) mammalian life in India could basically cease outside of aircoed rooms. It is that severe. The next six weeks look like showing what the possibilities in this respect are going to be, because the region is already on the very margin of survivable.  Quoting 391. BaltimoreBrian: Quoting 385. Xyrus2000:Sorry, but this blog isn't really conducive to posting integral math and physics equations. I was referring to something more along the lines of LaTeX which would allow you to write your own. :) 418. ariot  For the original question about the earth's core accounting for the observed warming located down thread at #348 or so, I invite anyone to read this summary and go get the various papers on the topic that are cited within. https://www.skepticalscience.com/heatflow.htmlHuman activity is a climate force. The climate reacts to forces. There are other climate forces, and they are well documented, observed and accounted for in hundreds of studies -- most of which we can read for free.  Maybe an additional HOT day, oh and that rain chance moved North of here...lol avg is 56/51 low was 56.9F  If you do believe GW is not man made but a natural cycle, what if your wrong? Even if it is a natural cycle should we not do everything we can to mitigate what parts we can control? Should we not prepare for the repercussions? Its like arguing about a Hurricane coming ashore. It is natural, and no one agrees on the track or landfall yet preparing is a must. I prepare even before Hurricane season starts. Ignoring GW, whatever you think the cause will be catastrophic. The Earth is warming, time to stop deciding why and see what we can do to mitigate and prepare for whats to come.  ~  Finally some news out of Farquhar. They are concerned about being hit a third time by Fantala. Tropical Storm in Seychelles on April 21 2016 03:36 AM (UTC).The Seychelles government on Wednesday declared a group of southerly outer islands lashed hard by the intense tropical cyclone Fantala as disaster areas. Significant damages were reported on Farquhar island Monday after Fantala made landfall Sunday evening with winds up to 350km/h. Only four cyclone-proof facilities on the island -- which lies more than 700 kilometers south of the Seychelles main island, Mahe --survived the storm. The disaster declaration made Wednesday covers the Farquhar atoll, said Environment, Energy and Climate Change Minister Didier Dogley. Several islands close to Farquhar have been hard hit, he said. Dogley said that the disaster declaration will help Seychelles to seek not only local but also international assistance for rebuilding efforts. The powerful tropical cycle struck Farquhar a second time on Tuesday, Glenny Savy, the Chief Executive of the Island Development Company (IDC), told a news conference on Wednesday. "Luckily the intensity was a bit less the second time, but [Farquhar] still experienced strong winds from 9pm to up to around three-four o'clock in the morning," said Savy. Savy told the media that the company's staff on the island who have been taking refuge in the cyclone-proof facilities are safe, adding that they have sufficient food and fuel. They have been keeping contact with him through a standby satellite phone system. "The staff have had the opportunity to walk around a little bit and they say the damage is very, very extensive, especially to the environment, the trees," said Savy. IDC, a parastatal company which manages some of the outer islands of the archipelago, has decided to reduce the number of its employees on Farquhar especially the older workers, the women and others who may have health issues. The IDC is expected on Friday to provide the first pictures showing the extent of the devastation on the island. A flight to Farquhar originally planned for Thursday has now been postponed by a day while a boat with supplies that was scheduled to leave for the island on Wednesday has also not done so as the sea conditions remains rough. The authorities remain on alert since weather models show that Farquhar and its neighbouring islands won't be in the clear until Tuesday or Wednesday next week. Fantala is currently moving southeast and is expected to gradually change course and move north towards Madagascar and could potentially come back and hit Farquhar and the surrounding islands a third time, said Wills Agricole, the Principal Secretary for Energy and Climate Change."But of course we have to be careful with these models and we have to be on the alert in case the cyclone comes back in the Seychelles waters," said Agricole. IDC will be taking a decision on whether there will be a need for a partial evacuation of personnel on Astove, Assumption and potentially Aldabra islands, which could be affected along with Cosmoledo if Fantala does strike a third time. "That decision will probably be taken in the next 48 hours depending on what happens with the cyclone because the modelling does not necessarily means it will happen because there are many factors that can cause a cyclone to change direction, intensify or break up," said Savy. Once the situation around the southern outer islands goes back to normal, work will have to begin to assess the extent of damages caused so that the necessary resources could be mobilised to repair infrastructures.Dogley said the island can mobilize local and international assistance for the hard-hit islands with the newly declared disaster designation. "For example we have an arrangement with the World Bank where we have an insurance policy and to get funding you have to declare the disaster areas then do the assessment to see what has been lost and how much it will cost to restore the essential facilities and services," said Dogley. Seychelles lies outside of the cyclonic belt, although the most southerly islands of the archipelago do experience strong winds. The tropical cyclone season of the southwest Indian ocean starts from November 15 to April 30 but for Mauritius and Seychelles the vulnerability period lasts until May 15. Agricole has noted that Fantala, the sixth cyclone of the season, is the strongest tropical cyclone to form in the southwest Indian Ocean, after tropical cyclone Gafilo in 2004 As for Farquhar, the island has been hit by cyclones previously in 1956 and also in 2006. 'Bondo' hit in 2006 although it caused less damages than Fantala as it carried winds up to 225km/h compared to the 350km/h experienced this year. It was because of Bondo that cyclone-proof facilities were built on the island, and Minister Dogley has said that such measures will have to be taken into consideration as the damages of the present disaster are evaluated. "What we need to do is to sit down and see how to be more resilient, to rethink about how we design infrastructures for the islands affected, how to exist alongside cyclones which before were not a threat to the islands," said Dogley. The passage of cyclone Fantala has once again highlighted the vulnerability of the Seychelles, a 115-island archipelago in the face of climate change. Wills Agricole said that the country will be further highlighting this on April 22 when it signs the Paris Agreement document.  Quoting 409. NativeSun: Why the insults? Do you believe the ENSO phases affect the Earths temps? And the oceans are the drivers, not the atmosphere. You've been shown countless links to the actual papers and science and continue to post nonsense. Your inability to objectively look at the data and continuous posting of run of the mill denier tropes about a topic you have repeatedly shown to have little to no knowledge about is the insulting thing here. Start here, these are the scientific rebuttals, with citations to the actual research to every human caused climate change denial meme you post. Please read these.  Quoting 394. RobertWC: There was a 11 year old girl who died this week. Standing in line for water. She waited for 5 hours. It was over 100 Degrees. I have little patience with whining deniers, this is not some abstract debate. And their sense. of "Fair Play".These are some of the most poorly informed people ever. And they cling to , "Fillfull Ingnorance". I don't have to respect "Fillfull Ingnorance". i beat it with hammer and tongs. While i am a firm believer in man made climate change and while I'm not supporting your statement, it changes nothing to the importance of doing something to mitigate our role in climate changeSo, no, I don't support this claim and I think claims such as this while well meaning confuse the issue.There's a reported 330 million people suffering from drought conditions in India. The reason is primarily due to El Nino as they affect and usually lessen the rain totals of that region and while we were not officially in a declared El Nino event last monsoon season, the anomalies in the Pacific were at El Nino levels. Due to that fact I would have to put the drought as related to weather and not climate change. If the drought was more severe than normal due to these weather conditions or areas not usually affected by an El Nino event were seeing conditions like expected in an El Nino, then I believe we could be justified in saying it is a direct result in climate change.The girl that died did so due to heat stroke. I wish peace to her friends and family. Now in looking at the temperature in that area I do not see any record highs and although very hot except for the fact that it could be averaging hotter longer (I just don't have the information to say yes or no either way) The high temperatures don't seem to be abnormal from many past years. Again, I would have to say that her death wa a direct relation to weather.Now when we see other parts of the world affected by drought due to El Nino that have not been previously affected by El Nino and when we see people dying from heat stroke in months where it would not typically occur and in places where it would not typically occur than I believe we can accurately attribute that to Climate Change 425. OKsky  Quoting 409. NativeSun: Why the insults? Do you believe the ENSO phases affect the Earths temps? And the oceans are the drivers, not the atmosphere. Why the "missing the points"? Did you really not understand the analogy I made? Bad science is bad science... its nothing personal, dude.Edit: by "bad science" in this instance I mean: "making an arbitrary claim and asking others to prove you wrong", which is exactly what Mr. jo did. ..... and even calling it "bad science" is being more generous than I should be. 426. OKsky  Quoting 417. Xyrus2000: I was referring to something more along the lines of LaTeX which would allow you to write your own. :) The site might be able to use this, but I bet it would require some code mangling. Also not sure if the ROI for the effort would be there for them.  Round 3  Quoting 423. Naga5000: You've been shown countless links to the actual papers and science and continue to post nonsense. Your inability to objectively look at the data and continuous posting of run of the mill denier tropes about a topic you have repeatedly shown to have little to no knowledge about is the insulting thing here. Start here, these are the scientific rebuttals, with citations to the actual research to every human caused climate change denial meme you post. Please read these. Agree, and usually there is a new blog entry by Dr. Jeff/Prof. Bob when I post a comment so here's hoping!  YIKES, Hang in there Houston....  Quoting 401. swflurker: How do you get your acorns to sprout. Tried the floating method with no results. Any help would be appreciated. Thanks! Also, when is the best weather for planting. I just stuffed them in planters about 1" deep right after collecting them and waited. Just regular potting soil, no special tricks, just lucky? Not all have sprouted yet, got them from Riverside park in Spokane wa, lots of diffrent varieties. Put 3 in my carrot box that is all peet moss and they are all up. Good luck.  When I see a derp wall being constructed with bricks of BS, I let them be.What any single Human thinks about the Science of AGW, it matters not as to the symptom, nor the cause.It is what it is.Simple willful ignorance.They matter not.As the warming continues unabated 24/7/365.: P  Wow, big thunderstorm with plenty of wind, rain and thunder.Winds coming in from the north and gusting to 20mph.Thank goodness this doesnt look like it will last too longMoving pretty quickly. Know someone that lost two cars and their house in Spring earlier this week. Very sad 433. beell  Like wow! It's 420 Day!  no disrespect to Dr. Masters but almost every post is about how we are all dying.We know we are doomed so lets just keep reminding ourselves everyday.The only way we will stop pumping carbon into the atmosphere if there is a global catastrophe that kills everyone off.on another note.....we really need rain  Quoting 411. NativeSun: Overpopulation and poverty are the real killers of all the children and adults dying, and a part of climate change is also caused by overpopulationUmm...correct me if I'm wrong, but wouldn't the claim that overpopulation causes global warming undermine your argument that humans have little to do with the warming climate? And wouldn't more humans use more fossil fuels? I would really like to hear exactly why you dismiss the thought that humans are the primary agents in global warming, and why you believe that those who do accept the premise of AGW are actually the corrupt entities. How do you ignore the impacts of burning fossil fuels? Perhaps more importantly, how do you dismiss the idea that corporations that make huge profits from the fossil fuel industries in favor of rejecting the corrupt scientists who advocate it? What benefits, financial or intellectual, do they receive in promoting AGW? Are they the same kinds of benefits these corporations receive? And how do you keep ahold of these beliefs even after major oil corporations have been subpoenaed in light of documentation that proves they knew about the impact of burning fossil fuels on our climate, but intentionally buried the information in order to protect their own profits?  Quoting 433. beell: Like wow! It's 420 Day! lol ...missed it by a day buddy ...or participated and lost track of time?  Jazz Fest opens tomorrow so no posts from me till May.: ) Welcome to the 2016 New Orleans Jazz Fest: Mostly the same, but with a big, green difference  Quoting 409. NativeSun: Why the insults? Do you believe the ENSO phases affect the Earths temps? And the oceans are the drivers, not the atmosphere. The phases of the ENSO work entirely off the heat content of the oceans. The phases of the ENSO transport heat energy and do not create nor destroy heat energy.  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0339 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG PARTS OF THIS CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY/DAY 81st tornado out break of the season?  Quoting 434. 19N81W: no disrespect to Dr. Masters but almost every post is about how we are all dying.We know we are doomed so lets just keep reminding ourselves everyday.The only way we will stop pumping carbon into the atmosphere if there is a global catastrophe that kills everyone off.on another note.....we really need rain This makes zero sense...."if there is a global catastrophe?"Here's some perspective.The last time the Earth warmed 5-7F degrees it took 12,500 years. Were on a pace to that in 400 with 170-200 of those years now behind us.Now, just how do species adapt to that quick of a temp swing....?They dont.And the Science tells we are losing animal species at a rate 1000 times faster than anytime in the past paleo record.If that isn't a "catastrophe", then color me purple today.Carry on'  Good Afternoon (1 minute away); here is the current look for Conus, jet, and convective outlook for today. Just noting again (for the newer weather watchers) how the higher risk areas on any given day (the Southern Great Lakes region today) always coincides with the current location of the Conus Jet in terms of the possibility for stronger straight line winds and/or a tornado threat. Have to see where the jet sets up next week; when the jet, and Spring lows, collide with the warmer Gulf flow into Texas and the MS Valley region, that is when we have the strongest potential for a tornado threat in May and June:  And also for the record..we have had 384 straight consecutive months of Warm Biased Avg Global Temps.Thats 32 continuous years since the Earth saw a cool biased avg monthly temp. The tipping point with CO2 was 350ppm,and we soared past that back when Grothar and I were in NATO...in the mid 80's.  on the colored water vapor seems there is flow of moisture moving onshore western costa rica and panama coming out of the warm el nino waters. a flow like this could also help increase moisture in the western carib.  kinda missing the point I think....I didnt read your entire postMy thinking is it would shut down any need to burn fossil fuels as such eliminating the human component from the carbon outputQuoting 440. Patrap: This makes zero sense...."if there is a global catastrophe?"Here's some perspective.The last time the Earth warmed 5-7F degrees it took 12,500 years. Were on a pace to that in 400 with 170-200 of those years now behind us.Now, just how do species adapt to that quick of a temp swing....?They dont.And the Science tells we are losing animal species at a rate 1000 times faster than anytime in the past paleo record.If that isn't a "catastrophe", then color me purple today.Carry on'  Quoting 442. Patrap: And also for the record..we have had 384 straight consecutive months of Warm Biased Avg Global Temps.Thats 32 continuous years since the Earth saw a cool biased avg monthly temp. The tipping point with CO2 was 350ppm,and we soared past that back when Grothar and I were in NATO...in the mid 80's. I thought CO2 levels were higher than that during the age of dinosaurs.  Quoting 445. ACSeattle: I thought CO2 levels were higher than that during the age of dinosaurs. Some studies have alluded to that however the end result is the same; we are are currently in a rapidly warming phase...........Why some people have referred to the current records as being "Jurrasic" hot.................... However, that period also came to an abrupt end with the Yucatan meteorite impact that killed the dinosaurs then sent the planet into a rapid cooling/ice age period because of the blocked sun rays due to the particles or soil and debris that was absorbed into the atmosphere/stratosphere from the impact................Just Sayin.  Global Climate Change Indicators IntroductionMany lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming?A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate. The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences. For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover. These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations.  Hey everybody, long time lurker first time commenterI am looking for some information about weather models. Specifically, I would like to work up one of my own at some point in the future. I am going to be retiring in 5 years or so and I wanted to begin gradually increasing my knowledge so that I can hit the ground running when I am not working 60 hour weeks. My Education background is in Physics and Mechanical Engineering with 25 years of programming experience in everything from Cobol to C. I have had a meteorology course but I understand I am have a rather steep learning curve to go through in order to be able to create a working model. Where would someone start? Also is it realistic to think that the initialization data that the model would need would be available to a layman?Thanks in Advance. Really enjoy the posts and discussions.  Carbon dioxide concentration (parts per million) for the last 800,000 years, measured from trapped bubbles of air in an Antarctic ice core. The 2008 observed value is from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii and projections are based upon future emission scenarios. More information on the data can be found in the Climate Change Impacts on the U.S. report.Over the last 800,000 years, natural factors have caused the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration to vary within a range of about 170 to 300 parts per million (ppm). The concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by roughly 35 percent since the start of the industrial revolution. Globally, over the past several decades, about 80 percent of human-induced CO2 emissions came from the burning of fossil fuels, while about 20 percent resulted from deforestation and associated agricultural practices. In the absence of strong control measures, emissions projected for this century would result in the CO2 concentration increasing to a level that is roughly 2 to 3 times the highest level occurring over the glacial-interglacial era that spans the last 800,000 or more years. 450. vis0  i wonder if 2mmrw we get a hint as to a new "name". the "faster faster faster Wx-a-Change'n Site" or "see sea surge, SI".  The combined water supply reservoirs in Texas is now at 86.9% capacity and with many of the reservoirs at 100% capacity.Texas Reservoirs This is a huge build up in inventory since the last drought that began in 2011There is hope for California. May it get its relief soon as well.  SINGAPORE - NEW RECORD HOTTEST DAY: April 19, 2016 is reportedly the record hottest calendar day in Singapore, with a day / night average temperature of 30.6 C / 87.1 F at Singapore's reference station, Changi.Link 453. ariot  Quoting 445. ACSeattle: I thought CO2 levels were higher than that during the age of dinosaurs. If we talk about the age of dinosaurs, as humans we require context.They first appeared during the Triassic period, 231.4 million years ago, and were the dominant terrestrial vertebrates for 135 million years, from the start of the Jurassic (about 200 million years ago) until the end of the Cretaceous (66 million years ago), (A summary from Wikipedia that is well cited.)Now, for us humans, the climate or CO2 content is comparing 135 million years to less than 200,000. We can see the climate forcing from the 1800s to now-- let's go 200 years on that.So now, the "age of the dinosaurs" is 135 million years of deep time.The age of industrial man just runs from my Great Grandfather to Me.The context of climate changes during a 200 year period we can observe are absolutely mind-shattering.  453. ariot12:28 PM EDT on April 21, 2016Bingo.....................................  Quoting 410. MAweatherboy1: After a very slow start to severe weather season, it looks like things will shift into high gear next week and likely into May. The SPC has highlighted the middle of next week (Tue-Thurs) as all having severe weather potential. Time will tell if this threat materializes, but the pattern itself is becoming much more conducive. Yes, we've (started with Keeperofthegate) been watching this potential severe setup for next week since the beginning of this week. It does appear we could have a legit severe weather setup for a few days next week.  Quoting 455. Sfloridacat5: Yes, we've (started with Keeperofthegate) been watching this potential severe setup for next week since the beginning of this week. It does appear we could have a legit severe weather setup for a few days next week. Who among you thinks it is a HIGH RISK DAY on the way?  As a learned rule, I never respond to AGW questions that answers can be found on the net in less than a minute.All it does is tell me someone has not studied even those basic asked questions that have been long ago explained in the proper context...here, and in a million other sites that discuss the science.We have a whole wu section in the menu on climate change.Starting there is where many can begin that journey. 458. OKsky  Quoting 448. LotsAThreads: Hey everybody, long time lurker first time commenterI am looking for some information about weather models. Specifically, I would like to work up one of my own at some point in the future. I am going to be retiring in 5 years or so and I wanted to begin gradually increasing my knowledge so that I can hit the ground running when I am not working 60 hour weeks. My Education background is in Physics and Mechanical Engineering with 25 years of programming experience in everything from Cobol to C. I have had a meteorology course but I understand I am have a rather steep learning curve to go through in order to be able to create a working model. Where would someone start? Also is it realistic to think that the initialization data that the model would need would be available to a layman?Thanks in Advance. Really enjoy the posts and discussions. Being a wxnewb myself as well, I don't know the answers to your questions..... but whoa!! That sounds like an awesome and hard project! If you go open source with this... shoot me your github link! One tech that has been HOT lately is ML. I feel like it might be something useful for you to look into. Here is one ML project that seems to be getting some love lately.Im going to cross my fingers and hope you turn out to be an extroverted blogger type, because I want to watch this evolve into something! :DEdit: That sounded as if I meant this would only evolve into something if you are an extroverted blogger.. not what I meant to say.. derp, lemme try to use my words this time: I want to see the process of its design and implementation as it unfolds.  Quoting 299. KEEPEROFTHEGATE: I bet it was did the ac get turned on Yes for a few hours. Lost the battle.  Here is the US drought monitor issued today; the rains in Louisiana and parts of Texas recently wiped out any traces of yellow we were seeing a few weeks ago; and Southern California remains in crisis mode:  Quoting 447. Patrap: Global Climate Change Indicators IntroductionMany lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change. Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming?A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate. The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences. For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover. These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations. greetings Pat...Whenever I discuss the issue with a few folks around here, this seems to be the the sticking point. They do not understand how the C02 traps the heat in the lowest part of the atmosphere. So I sorta liken it to glass house with black floors and no windows...:)  Quoting 456. 62901IL: Who among you thinks it is a HIGH RISK DAY on the way? It's too early to know. But we're going to see a developing low across western Texas/Oklahoma that's going to push out into the Plains and get pretty wrapped up next week. 463. beell  For the weather geek, a new & nifty feature available at the weather.cod.edu/forecast site. For the GFS model: "mouseover" data readouts for most products (T, Td, winds, theta, CAPE, etc).  Quoting 463. beell: For the weater geek, a new & nifty feature available at the weather.cod.edu/forecast site. For the GFS model: "mouseover" data readouts for most products (T, Td, winds, theta, CAPE, etc). Cool beans, thanx beell  Quoting 348. flibinite:But with no data given, or that I can find, on specific, accurate measurements of the Earth's total mantle temperature over the last 10-50 years, I can't disprove my own hypothesis. Certainly no one here could, though I do thank the half-dozen or so of you who tried. Jo Any change in mantle temperature/heat flow at such a scale would cause an obvious, noticeable change in how seismic waves propagate at distances greater than a few hundred kilometers. There are known discontinuities within the mantle, phase change boundaries where the atomic packing changes. Temperature changes would cause a significant shift in these boundaries, since they are determined by temperature and pressure . It would also cause a softening overall of the mantle and crust, with a noticeable effect in how earthquake wave types (pressure vs transverse) propagate at distances, especially speed and die-off, since softer materials propagates them slower and causes transverse waves to dissipate faster.If the whole mantle overall were changing over time, at such a proposed speed, it would be glaringly obvious with the first major earthquake.  "The Full Monty" from SPC:After mentioning isolated severe chances on Sunday and Monday, the today's SPC Day 4-8 Convective Outlook increases Tuesday (day 6) chances to 30% with ingredients potentially in place for a significant outbreak, and risk areas now delineated for Days 7 and 8 also. DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0339 AM CDT THU APR 21 2016 VALID 241200Z - 291200Z...DISCUSSION...THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH ANUPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND MOVE THIS FEATURE EWDINTO THE GREAT PLAINS ON SUNDAY/DAY 4. AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY EXTENDING NNEWD FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY. ON MONDAY/DAY 5...THE MODELS BRING A SHORTWAVE RIDGE NEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MAINTAIN AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN THE SRN PLAINS WHERE AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE. ON TUESDAY/DAY 6...THE ECMWF AND GFS CONTINUE TO MOVE A NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL JET ENEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS. THE MODELS SHOW A WELL-DEVELOPED DRYLINE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND STRONG DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. AS THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET OVERSPREADS A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS...A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING A 30 PERCENT CONTOUR ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TX...OK AND SRN KS. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 7...THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT MOVING THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE MO VALLEY AND HAVING AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IN THE MID MS VALLEY EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG PARTS OF THIS CORRIDOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE. ON THURSDAY/DAY 8...ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE SWRN U.S. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE IN THE SRN PLAINS WHERE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 04/21/2016  High risk severe days next week?With a negatively tilted trough, possible. Maybe depends on the strength of the mid-level jet. We'll see.  Quoting 434. 19N81W: no disrespect to Dr. Masters but almost every post is about how we are all dying. Really? Let's look back at this month's Masters/Henson entries:04/19: Warmest March in Global Recordkeeping; 2016 Roars Ahead of Pack04/18: Fantala Tied for Strongest on Record for Indian Ocean; Massive Flash Flood in Houston04/17: Bill Gray: A Towering Figure in Hurricane Science04/15: Central U.S. Dousing on Tap; Heavy Spring Snow in CO, WY04/14: CSU Projects a Near-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season in 201604/12: NWS LOWERS ITS VOICE: All-Caps Phaseout Starts in May04/11: New Re-Analysis Sheds Lights on the Mysteries of Hurricane Camille04/08: The North Atlantic Blob: A Marine Cold Wave That Won%u2019t Go Away04/06: March in the U.S.: Crazy Mild, Inconsistently Wet04/04: California%u2019s Water Supply for 2016: Context is Everything04/01: Maybelline to Sponsor Hurricane Eye Flights in 2016Hmm. It would seem your definition of the term "almost every" is in serious need of readjustment, wouldn't you say?  Well, now I have no doubt we will have an active hurricane season. We just had our homeowners insurance cancelled. It always seems to come the same week as the announcement of an active season. We are paying$13,000 now, I can't wait to see what the new insurance will be. Anyone else get cancelled??
 Sorry to hear that sadly Gro.Hope the new carrier has a backbone too.
 Pretty cool to see the low wrapping up based on the temp anomaly.
 Here is the projected look for the Conus jet 6 days out; that gap in the curve over/near AZ/OK is where the low should be located next week and notice the strong jet pushing into Texas and the MS Valley region out ahead of the low; that is where the tornado threat is going to emerge next Tuesday and Wednesday.
 Quoting 469. Neapolitan: Really? Let's look back at this month's Masters/Henson entries:04/19: Warmest March in Global Recordkeeping; 2016 Roars Ahead of Pack04/18: Fantala Tied for Strongest on Record for Indian Ocean; Massive Flash Flood in Houston04/17: Bill Gray: A Towering Figure in Hurricane Science04/15: Central U.S. Dousing on Tap; Heavy Spring Snow in CO, WY04/14: CSU Projects a Near-Average Atlantic Hurricane Season in 201604/12: NWS LOWERS ITS VOICE: All-Caps Phaseout Starts in May04/11: New Re-Analysis Sheds Lights on the Mysteries of Hurricane Camille04/08: The North Atlantic Blob: A Marine Cold Wave That Won%u2019t Go Away04/06: March in the U.S.: Crazy Mild, Inconsistently Wet04/04: California%u2019s Water Supply for 2016: Context is Everything04/01: Maybelline to Sponsor Hurricane Eye Flights in 2016Hmm. It would seem your definition of the term "almost every" is in serious need of readjustment, wouldn't you say? How dare you post actual real facts to dispute the feels? Pssh. Facts. /s
 Scripps el Nino forcast
 Quoting 470. Grothar: Well, now I have no doubt we will have an active hurricane season. We just had our homeowners insurance cancelled. It always seems to come the same week as the announcement of an active season. We are paying $13,000 now, I can't wait to see what the new insurance will be. Anyone else get cancelled?? And that does not include flood insurance. Mine was cancelled when my home turned 20 years old. Several companies since. I avoid Citizens because they do not cover the pool cage which could be very expensive to replace.  Quoting 470. Grothar: Well, now I have no doubt we will have an active hurricane season. We just had our homeowners insurance cancelled. It always seems to come the same week as the announcement of an active season. We are paying$13,000 now, I can't wait to see what the new insurance will be. Anyone else get cancelled?? My husband and I just brought property down in Fl.Hopefully the luck continues this year because I know its a dream that my husband always wanted to come true.
 Quoting 435. ProphetessofDoom: Hi Phrophet, left out a word in my statement, (large part ), overpopulation is the largest contributor to climate change, and the reason you stated above. I still don't understand what you are trying to say, as it seems we both agree overpopulation is a major contributor to climate change. Overpopulation in the3rd world and developing countries is the biggest problem for the people starving in these said countries, and right now there seems that the people in these countries are doing very little to help themselves.
 JeffMasters has created a new entry.
 Quoting 470. Grothar: Well, now I have no doubt we will have an active hurricane season. We just had our homeowners insurance cancelled. It always seems to come the same week as the announcement of an active season. We are paying $13,000 now, I can't wait to see what the new insurance will be. Anyone else get cancelled?? I certainly live in a different region of the country than do you, but still quite near the Gulf Coast. My home owner's insurance increased by 25% last year and I felt relieved that it did not go up again this year. What do these insurance companies know that they are not telling us? Using the same old story being told to us by those that deny the climate is changing, we have always had weather and hurricanes are not anything new. Gee, I wish one of these people was setting my insurance rates. :)I hope that the next insurer does not give you sticker shock, Grothar.  Quoting 470. Grothar: Well, now I have no doubt we will have an active hurricane season. We just had our homeowners insurance cancelled. It always seems to come the same week as the announcement of an active season. We are paying$13,000 now, I can't wait to see what the new insurance will be. Anyone else get cancelled?? Ah one of the perks of leasing near the coast... but if media headlines are to be believed, looks like our health insurance is about to go..
485. MahFL
 Quoting 415. cRRKampen: Temps up to 8° C above climate... Yer it's called a heat wave.
 Quoting 477. Patrap: The Singer Prince has passed away more... Fixed the link
 Quoting 461. hydrus:greetings Pat...Whenever I discuss the issue with a few folks around here, this seems to be the the sticking point. They do not understand how the C02 traps the heat in the lowest part of the atmosphere. So I sorta liken it to glass house with black floors and no windows...:)I'm not sure what they are asking you to explain. The lapse rate from pressure, volume, temperature keeps the air warmer at the surface compared to higher up. The greenhouse effect is when greenhouse gas molecules keep energy that would otherwise radiate into space from leaving the atmosphere. The atmosphere molecules distribute the energy by bumping into each other and also reradiating the energy in all directions, a lot of which goes into the oceans. A lot makes it back out to space possibly being absorbed and re-emitted many times. Eventually an equilibrium is reached--assuming incoming solar radiation, albedo and greenhouse gases are not changing--where the outgoing energy matches the energy coming in from the sun. There will be a height in the atmosphere where the average temperature matches the apparent temperature one would detect by looking at the earth from outer space and measuring its light spectrum (energy radiating from the earth). If the incoming radiation is not changing but greenhouse gases are increasing, then this height must increase as the atmosphere warms. I suppose they might be asking about that.