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Warmest January on record for the lower atmosphere

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:37 PM GMT on February 17, 2010

Earth's lower atmosphere recorded its warmest January on record last month, according to data from both the University of Alabama, Hunstville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (Figure 1). The satellite measurements used to take the global temperature of the lower atmosphere began in December 1978, using the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) on polar-orbiting satellites. The January 2010 temperature anomaly was an impressive 0.72°C above the 1979 - 1998 average, easily beating the previous record of 0.59°C set in January 2007. Last month's anomaly was the 3rd warmest anomaly for any month, falling just 0.04°C cooler than the record warmest anomalies of 0.76°C from February and April 1998. The January 2010 satellite-measured temperatures continued a trend of very warm conditions we've seen in the lower atmosphere since the current El Niño event began in June 2009. Record high temperatures occurred in November 2009, and were the second highest on record in both July and September 2009, according to UAH. The record-breaking temperatures in the lower atmosphere are due to the heating of the atmosphere by the strong El Niño event that has been heating the waters of the Central and Eastern Pacific since June 2009, combined with the global warming trend of the past few decades. Since we are currently at the lowest level of solar output in decades, the Earth is currently about 0.1°C cooler than if we were near the maximum of the 11-year sunspot cycle. Had we been near solar maximum, we would have set an all-time warmest lower atmosphere temperature anomaly record last month.(Note, though, that there is about a 2-year time lag between solar maximum and when Earth's global temperature responds). It will be interesting to see if the current El Niño event, which is quite a bit weaker than the record-strongest El Niño of 1998, is capable of making 2010 beat 1998 for honors as the warmest year on record in the lower atmosphere.


Figure 1. Temperature of the lowest 8km of the atmosphere measured by satellite via the MSU instrument flown on polar-orbiting satellites between 1979 - 2010. Image credit: Dr. Roy Spencer, University of Alabama, Hunstville.

Real-time display of atmospheric temperatures measured by satellite
The University of Alabama, Huntsville has a handy interactive plotting page that lets one plot up the historical and near-real-time satellite measurements of Earth's global average temperature at various levels of the atmosphere. These temperatures are measured by the MSU instrument on the polar-orbiting NOAA-15 satellite. Note that this is a different instrument than the AQUA satellite's MSU instrument used by UAH to formulate their official monthly global temperature anomaly data set. The two satellites give similar results, although NOAA-15 requires an additional correction to account for drift of the satellite.


Figure 2. Temperature of the global atmosphere at 14,000 feet (4.4 km) as measured by the MSU instrument on the polar-orbiting NOAA-15 satellite. This instrument has been flying since August 1998. The 20-year average (yellow line) and 20-year record highs (pink line) are for the period 1979 - 1998, using versions of the MSU instrument that flew on older satellites. The most recent data (green line), as of February 15, 2010, are marked by a white square, and have now fallen below the record for the date set in 1998. Note that during July 2009, November 2009, and January 2010, record high temperatures were measured at 14,000 feet altitude. A full description of the data is available from the University of Alabama, Hunstville.

Error sources in global atmospheric temperatures measured by satellite
Satellite-measured temperatures of Earth's atmosphere, in my judgment, are inferior to using the surface based system of ground stations and ocean buoys for measuring global temperature changes. I have two reasons for saying this:

1) The satellite temperatures show large global increases when there is an El Niño event. While the surface also experiences an upward spike in temperatures during an El Niño, it is much less pronounced than the atmospheric heating that occurs. Since we live at the surface, those temperatures are more relevant.

2) According to a description of the MSU data available on the Remote Sensing Systems web site where the data is archived,


"The instruments in the MSU series were intended for day to day operational use in weather forecasting and thus are not calibrated to the precision needed for climate studies. A climate quality dataset can be extracted from their measurements only by careful inter-calibration of the eleven distinct MSU instruments."


In other words, it's very tricky to make an accurate measurement of Earth's temperature going back to 1979, when satellite measurements began. You have to merge data from eleven separate satellites, whose instruments were never designed to make the kind of precise long-term climate measurements that are being asked of them. While surface stations also have error sources, I believe that the uncertainty in the satellite-based global temperature measurements are higher.

Dr. John Christy of the University of Alabama, Huntsville, made a series of efforts to perform the careful inter-calibration needed beginning in the 1990s, and for over a decade successfully defended his conclusion that the MSU instruments were showing a much lower level of tropospheric warming than what climate models predicted. Christy was probably the most quoted scientist by the "greenhouse skeptics" during that period, and testified numerous times before Congress about his findings. This discrepancy was a prime argument Senator James Inhofe (R-Oklahoma) used in his famed 2003 speech when he referred to the threat of catastrophic global warming as the "greatest hoax ever perpetrated on the American people." Greenhouse contrarian Dr. S. Fred Singer, who has probably more Congressional testimony about global warming under his belt than any other scientist, headlined his SEPP website for many years with the quote, "Computer models forecast rapidly rising global temperatures, but data from weather satellites and balloon instruments show no warming whatsoever. Nevertheless, these same unreliable computer models underpin the Global Climate Treaty." Michael Crichton also used the tropospheric warming discrepancy to give climate models a bad rap in his State of Fear novel. However, a series of papers published in 2004 and 2005 showed that the satellite inter-calibration methods used by Christy were incorrect. Christy conceded that his analysis had been in error, and participated in writing a statement put out by NOAA's Climate Change Science Program that detailed the error.

Climate change contrarians continue to prefer using the UAH satellite data to look at global temperature trends, since that data set shows less warming than the regular surface station data sets, and rates 1998 as the warmest year on record. The UAH data shows that in the 31-year period from 1979 - 2009, Earth's lower atmospheric temperature warmed by 0.13°C per decade. A separate analysis of the satellite data by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) puts this number at 0.15°C per decade. For comparison, NASA's GISS and the UK HadCRUT surface data sets (which don't use satellite data) show warming of 0.16°C and 0.15°C per decade, respectively. You can generate these numbers yourself, using the excellent woodfortrees.org plotting tools. The amount of global warming predicted in the 2007 IPCC report for the period 2010 - 2030 was 0.20°C per decade, so we are running about 25% below this predicted level of warming, when averaging over the past 31 years.

For further reading: I have a 2006 blog post on this, and realclimate.org has a technical discussion.

Portlight continues relief efforts in Haiti
The Portlight.org disaster-relief effort continues in Haiti, with another container of specifically-requested medical supplies being shipped today. At the request of Portlight's on-site coordinator, Richard Lumarque, Portlight is committed to sending another container with 500 tents plus food and water. The cost of each shipment is $4300, so your donations are greatly appreciated! Please visit the Portlight.org blog to learn more and to donate. Floodman's blog has the latest info on Portlight's plan for Haitian relief.


Figure 3. Richard Lumarque, Portlight's on-site coordinator in Haiti, poses with double-amputee Darline Exidor, who received a wheelchair from Portlight. Portlight's team of ten relief workers has been laboring full-time the past two weeks to deliver donated supplies and assess the needs of the earthquake survivors.

Next post
I'll have a new post on Thursday or Friday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting PcolaDan:
Want to see something really scary, check out this link.

http://pleaserobme.com/


Do people have any common sense anymore?
Quoting Seastep:


Do people have any common sense anymore?


Apparently not. And oh, by the way, I have to go out for a while. Can you keep an eye out on my house for me. I live at 123 Main St., Anyplace, Anystate, USA. ;)
Yowza...

Internet note allegedly posted by pilot in Austin incident

Caution.. does contain profanity
Who says the US is the only one to hype stuff on a slow news day, from BBC News.
Good Afternoon, live feed from KXAN-TV out of Austin, TX. Thankfully no reported fatalities, besides the pilot, may God have mercy on his troubled soul

Link
And you think WE govern everything. Busted a gut reading this.
Quoting Ossqss:


I hope this works on this site, ya might have to click it. Pretty cool item. LoL

nope, sorry

Try the link http://www.gifbin.com/982185



Very cool. You trying to do this?

This guy wasnt crazy. He was engineer and just coldn't take it anymore. I'm against the action taken, but what he is saying is dead on.

letter by pilot...

http://pppad.blogspot.com/2010/02/alleged-suicide-letter.html
Quoting RitaEvac:
This guy wasnt crazy. He was engineer and just coldn't take it anymore. I'm against the action taken, but what he is saying is dead on.

letter by pilot...

http://pppad.blogspot.com/2010/02/alleged-suicide-letter.html


He is crazy. Sane people do not crash plane into building!
Quoting RitaEvac:
This guy wasnt crazy. He was engineer and just coldn't take it anymore. I'm against the action taken, but what he is saying is dead on.

letter by pilot...

http://pppad.blogspot.com/2010/02/alleged-suicide-letter.html


Ya, he does make sense, but took it way to far, a lot of people feel this way, but just keep it bottled up.
Quoting MrJoeBlow:


He is crazy. Sane people do not crash plane into building!


Sane people dont bailout huge companies and let the middle class suffer either.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Ya, he does make sense, but took it way to far, a lot of people feel this way, but just keep it bottled up.


yeah, he definitely in no way is right for what he did, but I agreed with a lot of what he said
513. MTWX
Quoting MrJoeBlow:


He is crazy. Sane people do not crash plane into building!

Everyone is crazy in their own way... Everyone also uses different means to take out their frustrations...
Quoting MrJoeBlow:


He is crazy. Sane people do not crash plane into building!


... maybe evil-crazy? IF he really meant to burn house down while his wife and 12-year old daughter were in the family home (I understand the story is still in developmental stages ... and the screenplay for the TV movie for the week).

It's good an everyman-hero has already surfaced -- the window washer.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Sane people dont bailout huge companies and let the middle class suffer either.


If this kind of conversation were to start spreading like wildfire across the country...who knows what peoples real thoughts would start talking about
Quoting MTWX:
After 9/11 everyone just assumes any incident involving an aircraft is a "terrorist attack". Ignorance at its best!!


Not everyone but when "most" planes flying into buildings are acts of terrorism then when you hear of this then you think it "could" be. When my friend texted me saying it was an IRS building then it all changed. If you don't have the correct info then your perception on the crash is totally different.
Quoting tornadodude:


yeah, he definitely in no way is right for what he did, but I agreed with a lot of what he said


Exactly....and we as a society have got to figure out a way to stop this corrupt system
Quoting StormChaser81:


Sane people dont bailout huge companies and let the middle class suffer either.

The economy would have crash without the bailout. I don't like it neither but we'd all be in trouble.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Sane people dont bailout huge companies and let the middle class suffer either.


Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting RitaEvac:


If this kind of conversation were to start spreading like wildfire across the country...who knows what peoples real thoughts would start talking about


I wouldn't doubt it if there were copy cat people. It always happens. Hopefully not, but there is plenty of people that have lost everything and feel the same way as this guy.
I don't believe this. Now the blog is going to turn into an economy/bailout/big business vs the little man, etc blog. Left versus right is bound to be next.

out of here
Lets get back to GW
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lets get back to GW


Ya, im done, dont want to get to far off topic.
Quoting PcolaDan:
I don't believe this. Now the blog is going to turn into an economy/bailout/big business vs the little man, etc blog. Left versus right is bound to be next.

out of here


We might get some above average temperatures this weekend. Thats a big might though. I wish we had all this snow everybody else got!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lets get back to GW


Image and video hosting by TinyPic
Quoting Skepticall:


We might get some above average temperatures this weekend. Thats a big might though. I wish we had all this snow everybody else got!


I have a feeling with the negative NAO the temps for next week might be a little bit lower than there saying, especially if the low in the gulf that is supposed to form in the gulf stays further south.
This man should not fly plane into a building with innocense people in it. I never see him take any personal responsibleity. It always someone else fault in his mind.
530. MTWX
Quoting Skepticall:


Not everyone but when "most" planes flying into buildings are acts of terrorism then when you hear of this then you think it "could" be. When my friend texted me saying it was an IRS building then it all changed. If you don't have the correct info then your perception on the crash is totally different.

I quite agree... When there is a lack of information the media tends to speculate what happened before changing there story a hundred times as information becomes available. Just saying a lot of individuals tend to jump to conclusions before the facts are there.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lets get back to GW




lete nor and say we did
Anyway back to the weather.
533. 789
Quoting StormW:
Since I don't want to get into the TPC name game out in the middle of nowhere, the forecast as of now calls for 15 total storms west of 55 west. Crucial landfall ideas: seven landfalls, five hurricanes, two or three major landfalls. This is the kind of season that has me worried about Florida as a center point, and from this stage, areas north and west also, but with the center of the congregation of landfalling tracks near Florida.


Daym JB, take it easy.


I hate it when JB reads my mind.
howdy storm hope the weather didnt effect your move whats up next for the winter any supper storms or are we in the clear for the rest of the winter
Quoting lickitysplit:
This crash in TX is a clear consequence of too much Rush, Hannity, O'Liely and the other Reich Wing nutbags who attack the government at every turn meanwhile cheering on the banksters and insurance company thugs who have put the real hurt on this country.

They've been real effective at keeping the public eye on the boogieman while hiding the people who are actually destroying our economy and country.

I wonder when someone will fly a plane into the HQ of citibank or some insurance company. God forbid, but I'm shocked it hasnt happened yet.
You forgot to take your pill this morning didn't you? Breathe everybody...and relax. The sun will rise tomorrow and the next slow news day story will take over...
Quoting MTWX:

Everyone is crazy in their own way... Everyone also uses different means to take out their frustrations...
70 percent of population is nuts 20 percent can't belief there nuts and 10 percent know there nuts
Quoting StormW:
Since I don't want to get into the TPC name game out in the middle of nowhere, the forecast as of now calls for 15 total storms west of 55 west. Crucial landfall ideas: seven landfalls, five hurricanes, two or three major landfalls. This is the kind of season that has me worried about Florida as a center point, and from this stage, areas north and west also, but with the center of the congregation of landfalling tracks near Florida.


Daym JB, take it easy.


I hate it when JB reads my mind.


Yeah, I've being seeing simularities with this year and the mid 1960"s and if this all plays out like many tropical weather forecasters think then Florida is in for trouble. I would not be surprised if all major US landfalls are in Florida this year. Hurricane Donna and Charley could be repeated this year.
Quoting MrJoeBlow:

The economy would have crash without the bailout. I don't like it neither but we'd all be in trouble.


I disagree. TARP was necessary as you have to have credit, but the porkulus did very little if anything at all.

If anything it has extended the problem. Has not done anything for the private sector, imo. Plenty for the public sector, though. Woo-hoo, employment up. Raises all around, too... for the public sector.

Same as "spending our way out of the great depression," imo. Per the not-even-close-to-right-leaning UCLA.

And the current admin is spending more. Not going to get into all the complete garbage that the money was spent for. Studies, etc. Studies by universities don't stimulate anything in the economy. Sorry.

Had to get that out. Sorry, anyone who thinks the "stimulus" has done anything cannot possibly have taken a look at what it has been spent on.

You grow the private sector through tax breaks and incentives. Not spending. Can't spend your way to prosperity.

To leave on a positive note, I do like the administration's approach to Nuclear energy and am quite pleased. :)

And, via loans, not "here's some cash to blow."
Quoting NttyGrtty:
You forgot to take your pill this morning didn't you? Breathe everybody...and relax. The sun will rise tomorrow and the next slow news day story will take over...


Now this one is funny.
507. atmoaggie

You trying to do this?

LoL, that's what I did and it seems to have done the same to you too. Its a haunted GIF file :P
Quoting StormW:
Since I don't want to get into the TPC name game out in the middle of nowhere, the forecast as of now calls for 15 total storms west of 55 west. Crucial landfall ideas: seven landfalls, five hurricanes, two or three major landfalls. This is the kind of season that has me worried about Florida as a center point, and from this stage, areas north and west also, but with the center of the congregation of landfalling tracks near Florida.


Daym JB, take it easy.


I hate it when JB reads my mind.


Lol same here. His video showed the European multi-model seasonal forecasts that just came out for February. The May-June-July period shows an excessive area of below-average MSLP in the Caribbean and southwest Atlantic. The Euro temperature and precipitation forecasts follow this well, showing the resulting higher than normal temperature and precipitation associated with higher heat content in that area of the world. If this pattern were to last throughout the summer it would be bad for pretty much all land areas bordering the western Atlantic, including the US. It could also mean an early start to the season. As JB said, it's still early, but the signs are there for a dangerous season.

526. lickitysplit

I disagree. There is no worse bane on society than a government that can just take money from people. Companies can't do that... although, with the help of govt they can ala GM. :)
Quoting MTWX:

I quite agree... When there is a lack of information the media tends to speculate what happened before changing there story a hundred times as information becomes available. Just saying a lot of individuals tend to jump to conclusions before the facts are there.


And, that's why accurate and timely public information is critical after any incident. Panic and confusion can lead to bigger problems in a heartbeat.
Quoting Seastep:


I disagree. TARP was necessary as you have to have credit, but the porkulus did very little if anything at all.

If anything it has extended the problem. Has not done anything for the private sector, imo. Plenty for the public sector, though. Woo-hoo, employment up. Raises all around, too... for the public sector.

Same as "spending our way out of the great depression," imo. Per the not-even-close-to-right-leaning UCLA.

And the current admin is spending more. Not going to get into all the complete garbage that the money was spent for. Studies, etc. Studies by universities don't stimulate anything in the economy. Sorry.

Had to get that out. Sorry, anyone who thinks the "stimulus" has done anything cannot possibly have taken a look at what it has been spent on.

You grow the private sector through tax breaks and incentives. Not spending. Can't spend your way to prosperity.

To leave on a positive note, I do like the administration's approach to Nuclear energy and am quite pleased. :)

And, via loans, not "here's some cash to blow."


I am saying if we let the big bank fail and the car dealer too then the economy would have been in serious trouble with millions laid off. That is what I am saying.
Quoting StormW:


Agreed! Especially if we remain in a fairly negative NAO, or even just above neutral...won't allow for much of a strong trade wind regime. Let's hope the SST Anomalies don't remain where they are at right now.

BTW, good to see you again.


Thanks, good to see you as well :)
Concerning the incident is Austin, TX. That man was very, very troubled. He could have sought financial counseling, mental health help, filed bankrupcy and restarted his life again with a clean slate and led a great balance of his life.

Instead, he brewed in his sorrow, then ended his own life,and destroyed his home and an office building. What a shame and what a waste of his life, may God have mercy on his troubled soul.
548. MTWX
*weather related* in case no one saw my previous post.
Top U.N. Climate Official Yvo de Boer Resigning

Link
Quoting StormW:


Agreed! Especially if we remain in a fairly negative NAO, or even just above neutral...won't allow for much of a strong trade wind regime. Let's hope the SST Anomalies don't remain where they are at right now.
as sun crosses the line on mar 21 and heads north we got a couple of weeks maybe a month for a little more cooling possible its going to be interesting as too how the ITCZ starts firing up and if it generates enough cloudiness to help cool those temps as well as we get further along into spring and eventually summer
Quoting MrJoeBlow:


I am saying if we let the big bank fail and the car dealer too then the economy would have been in serious trouble with millions laid off. That is what I am saying.


Fair enough. Although I'm a "let 'em fail" guy.

GM could have done the bankruptcy without govt help and actually solved the major problems with their cost structure.

Unfortunately, the way it was done, most of that has not been solved and it will all just happen again. Their cost structure is messed up and a normal bankruptcy would have allowed them to change that.

OK. Sorry. I'll stop now. Not the place nor the time. I promise.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
as sun crosses the line on mar 21 and heads north we got a couple of weeks maybe a month for a little more cooling possible its going to be interesting as too how the ITCZ starts firing up and if it generates enough cloudiness to help cool those temps as well as we get further along into spring and eventually summer


As the El Nino winds down, Atlantic/Carribbean waters will continue to warm and this is going to be the seeds for a very active 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season.
Beautiful sunrise shot of Invest 90C as the first visible full-disks come in today.

Quoting Bordonaro:


As the El Nino winds down, Atlantic/Carribbean waters will continue to warm and this is going to be the seeds for a very active 2010 Atlantic Hurricane season.


Yeah. Those waters from CV all the way to the loop current do seem quite warm for this early on to me. Purely gut/iirc on that.
Quoting Levi32:
Beautiful sunrise shot of Invest 90C as the first visible full-disks come in today.

trying real hard i don't know if it can do it but its trying
Levi - you have me actually having a sat loop up all day again.
some people cant handle it in this world wish they'd figure a way to leave without hurting someone on the way out
If the trade winds stay slack and the waters continue to warm over the Atlantic & Caribbean, what happens to the steering patterns for the 2010 hurricane season?
Quoting StormChaser81:
If the trade winds stay slack and the waters continue to warm over the Atlantic & Caribbean, what happens to the steering patterns for the 2010 hurricane season?


Well, I for one am not liking StormW's agreement with JB on that topic!


26c isothem depth
Quoting Seastep:


Well, I for one am not liking StormW's agreement with JB on that topic!


Ya his thinking is the same as mine, not a good scenario coming into play with SST's climbing that fast.
Quoting Seastep:
Levi - you have me actually having a sat loop up all day again.


Lol, I'm glad someone else finds this interesting. I can't get over how unique and special this situation is out in the central Pacific. It's the middle of nowhere but that's why only a few see it.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Here are the approximate positions of the two centers based on animated satellite imagery and 850mb vorticity.

Things look to be cold with the trough out in the east with negative NAO and sharply negative AO:



sea surface temps
Oh man...it's just like yesterday. The precipitable water image from microwave imagery shows a connection in the moisture plume from 90C northeastward east of Hawaii. That plume goes on northward across the entire north Pacific right into my back yard where it's down-pouring right now in all of southern Alaska. Love it.




way too close to the equator and it's looks like the southern center is organizing. looks like this will be a southern hemisphere event
Quoting StormW:


Generally, as implied with a negative NAO, the trof we generally see recurve hurricanes is displaced more northward, not being able to extend further south, hence allowing for a more westward motion, or shall I say component, to tropical systems, especially if they develop in the MDR. Not saying that there can't be recurvature, as it all depends on where and how strong a system develops. Generally I've noticed, anything that gets going below 15N, in a negative NAO, usually makes it further west.


It will be an interesting season this year; any thoughts Storm on what we can expect in the E-Pac this season based upon current trends?
Here's the best satellite loop for viewing Invest 90C. All other sites will only give images every 3 hours for the southern hemisphere. So far I cannot find a visible loop with anything less than 3-hour intervals that includes the southern hemisphere, so I've had to be satisfied with visible images and this IR loop.
Quoting all4hurricanes:

way too close to the equator and it's looks like the southern center is organizing. looks like this will be a southern hemisphere event


Southern center is still the most disorganized of the two but I also believe it will eventually take over. It has the stronger convection and outflow pattern which should eventually overwhelm the northern center. It also has the seasonal advantage.
The ECMWF and Glosea ensemble members show the NINO 3.4 region reaching neutral conditions by the start of the hurricane season:



Quoting StormW:


Based on what looks to be going on with the current SST state...with a cold PDO, and the set up of the SST anomaly pattern in the Atlantic, most likely below avg in the EPAC, unless the warm pool of water hangs in in CPAC...could be average..but, genrally, when we have an increase in activity, it's usuallly below avg in EPAC...unless neutral with a warm bias, could be near avge.


Thanks.....There seems to be a "tentative" connection between E-Pac and Atlantic Basin activity.....If the trade winds keep E-pac activity down in that basin, we may well see an uptick on the Atlantic side....As I mentioned this morning, and all other things being equal (warm sst's in the Atlantic) I will be looking closely at sheer levels as we approach June in the MDR for that time of the year, and, SAL levels as we approach the Cape Verde part of the season.
Okay, who put in a photo from one of their subscription sites? everythie I refresh, I get asked for login info ofr a UK met site
A portion of the Dallas-Ft Worth, TX Area Forecast Discussion from 3:05PM CST today, hinting at wintry precip for either Tu/We 2/23 or 24TH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SUNDAY
WITH EACH MODEL BRINGING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
DIFFERENT DAYS. THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF HINTS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS ALSO HINTS AT WINTER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OR MORE
CONSISTENCY CAN BE REACHED...WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST OF LOW POPS AND ALL LIQUID QPF IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH NEXT WEEK.

WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING NEXT WEEK...HAVE TRENDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF MOS WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES.
Quoting StormW:




Thank you for answering me Storm!
Quoting Floodman:
Okay, who put in a photo from one of their subscription sites? everythie I refresh, I get asked for login info ofr a UK met site


My fault, I keep forgetting about that.
I think we could get an early start to hurricane season as the EUROSIP suggests much above normal average precipitation in the Caribbean in May, June, and July with a 50-70% chance of being in the highest 20% in climatology. This would also correlate with the forecast of below normal pressures in the region during that forecast period.
How can they already know about the hurricane season when it so many months away?
Complain,complain,Flood,thats all you do is complain.
To add to what Drakoen posted about the ECMWF ensembles,here are all the ENSO models Febuary forecasts.Almost all have El Nino gone when Summer arrives.

Quoting MrJoeBlow:
How can they already know about the hurricane season when it so many months away?


Model runs and watching how the atmosphere and water are reacting can give a excellent profile of a up coming hurricane season. They also use historical records to see similar patterns.
Wowie this is all too technically for me.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Model runs and watching how the atmosphere and water are reacting can give a excellent profile of a up coming hurricane season. This also use historical records to see similar patterns.


I live in Florida and what y'all are saying has me hoping y'all are wrong.
Quoting MrJoeBlow:
How can they already know about the hurricane season when it so many months away?


We can't know everything this far out, but it's not that hard to look at the big picture towards the end of winter and see what the major trends should be during the summer.
Quoting MrJoeBlow:


I live in Florida and what y'all are saying has me hoping y'all are wrong.


Hey I live in Florida to and right on the west coast, plus my elevation is 3ft above sea level.

There just calling what they see.

Id take it as a warning, but nothing is written in stone, things can change and will. But i does appear to be a more active hurricane season coming for the summer of 2010.
Quoting MrJoeBlow:
How can they already know about the hurricane season when it so many months away?


You never know this far out but the current "set-up" is leaning towards a favorable environment for an active season. However, I would not blow the apocalipse whistle yet as Joe B. did this week as conditions will surely change............We can speculate now on the trends and see what the preliminary outlooks from the "majors" (CSU,. etc) have to say come April in their first outlook....Even Dr. M. mentioned last week that there might be an active season this year........How active is the big question no one can answer right now until it unfolds.


big picture
Quoting StormChaser81:


Hey I live in Florida to and right on the west coast, plus my elevation is 3ft above sea level.

There just calling what they see.

Id take it as a warning, but nothing is written in stone, things can change and will. But i does appear to be a more active hurricane season coming for the summer of 2010.


I live in Riverview and am in a flood zone because of the Alafia River.
CFS forecast:

Warmer planet temperatures could cause longer-lasting weather patterns
Whether it's never-ending heat waves or winter storms, atmospheric blocking can have a significant impact on local agriculture, business and the environment. Although these stagnant weather patterns are often difficult to predict, University of Missouri researchers are now studying whether increasing planet temperatures and carbon dioxide levels could lead to atmospheric blocking and when this blocking might occur, leading to more accurate forecasts.

"In this research, we're trying to see if increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the resulting atmospheric warming will affect the onset and duration of future blocking events," said Tony Lupo, professor and chair of the atmospheric science department at the MU College of Agriculture, Food and Natural Resources. "We're hoping that the research will add cues that could help fellow forecasters better predict blocking and warn people in cases of long-lasting, severe weather."

Atmospheric blocking occurs between 20-40 times each year and usually lasts between 8-11 days, Lupo said. Although they are one of the rarest weather events, blocking can trigger dangerous conditions, such as a 2003 European heat wave that caused 40,000 deaths. Blocking usually results when a powerful, high-pressure area gets stuck in one place and, because they cover a large area, fronts behind them are blocked. Lupo believes that heat sources, such as radiation, condensation, and surface heating and cooling, have a significant role in a blocking's onset and duration. Therefore, planetary warming could increase the frequency and impact of atmospheric blocking.

"It is anticipated that in a warmer world, blocking events will be more numerous, weaker and longer-lived," Lupo said. "This could result in an environment with more storms. We also anticipate the variability of weather patterns will change dramatically over some parts of the world, such as North America, Europe and Asia, but not in others."

Lupo, in collaboration with Russian researchers from the Russian Academy of Sciences, will simulate atmospheric blocking using computer models that mirror known blocking events, then introduce differing carbon dioxide environments into the models to study how the dynamics of blocking events are changed by increased atmospheric temperatures. The project is funded by the US Civilian Research and Development Foundation - one of only 16 grants awarded by the group this year. He is partnering with Russian meteorologists whose research is being supported by the Russian Federation for Basic Research.
http://www.physorg.com/news185719909.html
Out to pick up the kids......Have a great day folks......WW
Wind shear is forecast to be well below normal according to the CFS in the MDR region:

Quoting weathermanwannabe:


You never know this far out but the current "set-up" is leaning towards a favorable environment for an active season. However, I would not blow the apocalipse whistle yet as Joe B. did this week as conditions will surely change............We can speculate now on the trends and see what the preliminary outlooks from the "majors" (CSU,. etc) have to say come April in their first outlook....Even Dr. M. mentioned last week that there might be an active season this year........How active is the big question no one can answer right now until it unfolds.


A season with 15 storms is not an apocalypse. Keep in mind JB was the first to call last season a near-bust for hurricane activity long before anyone thought it would be below average.
I found a 1-hour image interval visible loop for Invest 90C, including the southern hemisphere. It was right under my nose here at WU lol.



Notice how the northern center is turning ESE, now at 1.7n. It was up at 3n yesterday morning. I wanna see this thing cross the line lol. It would sure help the southern center get going if the northern piece comes down to join it.
Quoting NEwxguy:
Complain,complain,Flood,thats all you do is complain.


It's the only way people will listen to me...you didn't see the subliminal message in that post: "Take $500 and send it to Floodman"

It hasn't started working yet, but when it does...
Quoting StormChaser81:


Hey I live in Florida to and right on the west coast, plus my elevation is 3ft above sea level.

There just calling what they see.

Id take it as a warning, but nothing is written in stone, things can change and will. But i does appear to be a more active hurricane season coming for the summer of 2010.
With a low A.C.E., however, IF there are MORE storms, they will likely be of LESS intensity. Last year fell well short of predictions because low A.C.E. was not given it's due. My $.02.
Molten Planet
A breakthrough technology leads to a new understanding of the Earth's mobile, and malleable, inner core.
http://illumination.missouri.edu/f09/molten_planet

New findings on how super volcanos form, such as Yellowstone.
Hopefully this is not a major problem:


000
NOUS71 KNES 181218
ADANES
SUBJECT: PRODUCT ANOMALY, ASCAT DATA, ISSUED: FEBRUARY 18, 2010
TOPIC: *ASCAT *

DATE/TIME ISSUED*: FEBRUARY 18 2010, 1215 UTC*

PRODUCT(S) OR DATA IMPACTED: *ASCAT** *

DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT: *FEBRUARY 18, 2010** 1215 UTC*

DATE/TIME OF EXPECTED END: *UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE*

LENGTH OF EVENT: *TBD

*IMPACTS ON USERS AND SIGNIFICANCE: *ASCAT DATA WILL BE UNAVAILABLE.*

USER ACTIONS: *NONE.*

DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE: *DUE TO A METOP INSTRUMENT ANOMALY, ASCAT
DATA ARE UNAVAILABLE FROM SENSING TIME 09:50 ON DOY 049 UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE.
*

**RECOVERY INFORMATION SHALL BE DISTRIBUTED AS SOON AS IT BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
Email from Dr. Masters---there have been named tropical systems in the central Pacific in February :)

FROM: JeffMasters


TO: StSimonsIslandGAGuy
DATE: 2010-02-18 17:07:22 (5:07 PM GMT)
SUBJECT: Re: no subject
See:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/#1992

January 28 - February 4, Hurricane Ekeka
March 28 - 30, Tropical Storm Hali

Jeff

*********** Original message follows: ***********
Sent by StSimonsIslandGAGuy at: 9:29 PM GMT on February 17, 2010

Regarding the invest in the Central Pacific--has there ever been a named tropical system in the north Central Pacific in February? I know typhoons happen in the Western Pacific year round.
Quoting NttyGrtty:
With a low A.C.E., however, IF there are MORE storms, they will likely be of LESS intensity. Last year fell well short of predictions because low A.C.E. was not given it's due. My $.02.


This would be the year that the ACE makes a comeback though. The El Nino this winter has warmed and humidified the atmosphere in the tropics, making it ready for more activity. Once the El Nino collapses, as it already is beginning to do, that will set the stage for a more favorable upper-level pattern, which would allow more storms both in frequency and intensity. We'll see how it turns out, but I believe it is quite safe to say this season will be far more active than last year.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Hopefully this is not a major problem:


000
NOUS71 KNES 181218
ADANES
SUBJECT: PRODUCT ANOMALY, ASCAT DATA, ISSUED: FEBRUARY 18, 2010
TOPIC: *ASCAT *

DATE/TIME ISSUED*: FEBRUARY 18 2010, 1215 UTC*

PRODUCT(S) OR DATA IMPACTED: *ASCAT** *

DATE/TIME OF INITIAL IMPACT: *FEBRUARY 18, 2010** 1215 UTC*

DATE/TIME OF EXPECTED END: *UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE*

LENGTH OF EVENT: *TBD

*IMPACTS ON USERS AND SIGNIFICANCE: *ASCAT DATA WILL BE UNAVAILABLE.*

USER ACTIONS: *NONE.*

DETAILS/SPECIFICS OF CHANGE: *DUE TO A METOP INSTRUMENT ANOMALY, ASCAT
DATA ARE UNAVAILABLE FROM SENSING TIME 09:50 ON DOY 049 UNTIL FURTHER
NOTICE.
*

**RECOVERY INFORMATION SHALL BE DISTRIBUTED AS SOON AS IT BECOMES
AVAILABLE.
hopefully
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Email from Dr. Masters---there have been named tropical systems in the central Pacific in February :)

FROM: JeffMasters


TO: StSimonsIslandGAGuy
DATE: 2010-02-18 17:07:22 (5:07 PM GMT)
SUBJECT: Re: no subject
See:

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/summaries/#1992

January 28 - February 4, Hurricane Ekeka
March 28 - 30, Tropical Storm Hali

Jeff

*********** Original message follows: ***********
Sent by StSimonsIslandGAGuy at: 9:29 PM GMT on February 17, 2010

Regarding the invest in the Central Pacific--has there ever been a named tropical system in the north Central Pacific in February? I know typhoons happen in the Western Pacific year round.


Yes, it can happen during El Nino years when the SSTs are warm in the central Pacific. Ekeka set records for being the farthest south of any storm to develop in the entire Pacific, as well as the farthest south to attain major hurricane status.
Quoting MrJoeBlow:
Wowie this is all too technically for me.


Just ask for a translation to "newbie-speak!" I've been doing it for months; imagine it will go on for years until I'm banned for endlessly irritating WUnderland.

Most take pity on us...for we know not what we read... :)
Speaking of newbie-ness, would anyone know how to post this? I can't find the embed. It's a bit funny, "Pelican Attacks Weather Man," a Reuters video currently on the yahoo home page.

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?cl=18193093
Quoting Floodman:


It's the only way people will listen to me...you didn't see the subliminal message in that post: "Take $500 and send it to Floodman"

It hasn't started working yet, but when it does...


yeh,and I'm going to hit the lottery any day too.
Quoting NEwxguy:


yeh,and I'm going to hit the lottery any day too.


Wow, you too? LOL
.
I'm waiting a few more months to see what El Nino will do, it is possible to be weak throughout the upcoming summer.


Quoting Levi32:

Let me see if this works

-------------------------------

LOL! Well, it didn't work for ME, but that doesn't mean anything... I see I can get quite an education on plug-ins... geez, this could be as bad as trying to get me to read a read a MANUAL!

Which reminds me, this weekend's task is to learn a new cell-phone -- at least this one has a keyboard. I hate the switching-over time...

P.S. Thanks for trying to help me. I'm clueless on this one.
613. AwakeInMaryland 1:18 PM AKST on February 18, 2010
Quoting Levi32:

Let me see if this works

-------------------------------

LOL! Well, it didn't work for ME, but that doesn't mean anything... I see I can get quite an education on plug-ins... geez, this could be as bad as trying to get me to read a read a MANUAL!

Which reminds me, this weekend's task is to learn a new cell-phone -- at least this one has a keyboard. I hate the switching-over time...

P.S. Thanks for trying to help me. I'm clueless on this one.


Lol I utterly failed....but you're welcome. I'll figure it out some way eventually.

18Z GFS run coming out. So far, at the latest frame (132 hours out) there is snow all over TX.
.


The E3 CFS looks more in line with the other climate models.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:
18Z GFS run coming out. So far, at the latest frame (132 hours out) there is snow all over TX.

how bout a link i want to see
The GFS has yet to show the robust solutions on the 18z runs on its more reliable 00z and 12z runs.
Link

Looks like the snow ends in extreme eastern Alabama though.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
I'm waiting a few more months to see what El Nino will do, it is possible to be weak throughout the upcoming summer.




Strends are showing a stronger El-Nino come October possibly going over +2 degrees. Something to watch for sure. 2 years of El-Nino with next winter's being stronger maybe as strong as 1997 & 1998.
619. Yeah.. What happened during its latest 0Z and 12Z runs? Last time before this I remember the GFS dropped the southern snow storm completely. Think that was a 06Z run.
Here's the whole clip:

The GFS 12z shows the potential for snow in northern Texas down to the Dallas and then moves the swath over to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. It's tracking the low further north than the previous snowstorm in the south. Plenty of time to watch this one
623. Hey, you did it -- thanks, Levi! And Taz, our-Terrible-Terrier liked it, too! I'll have to remember to mention it to AussieStorm.

oh, goody, more of it...thanks CharlotteFl, too.
Quoting Drakoen:
The GFS 12z shows the potential for snow in northern Texas down to the Dallas and then moves the swath over to Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. It's tracking the low further north than the previous snowstorm in the south. Plenty of time to watch this one


Hmmm, I hate asking about my own location but.. how far south did it go in Georgia? XD

I would check myself but on the site I'm using (TwisterData) I click on the 12Z and it says it isn't available and redirects me to the latest one, the 18Z.
.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Hmmm, I hate asking about my own location but.. how far south did it go in Georgia? XD

I would check myself but on the site I'm using (TwisterData) I click on the 12Z and it says it isn't available and redirects me to the latest one, the 18Z.


Around Macon
Quoting Drakoen:
The GFS has yet to show the robust solutions on the 18z runs on its more reliable 00z and 12z runs.


THe GFS has been doing a terrible job lately. I wonder why this is, is it human error?
Quoting Jeff9641:


THe GFS has been doing a terrible job lately. I wonder why this is, is it human error?


It's the GFS's inability to correctly handle the transfer of heat and the physical processes associated with it.
Quoting charlottefl:
Here's the whole clip:


That was very funny to watch live, he is still getting "treatment" for his mental scaring
Quoting Levi32:


It's the GFS's inability to correctly handle the transfer of heat and the physical processes associated with it.


We have also been in a very unusual weather pattern since late Nov 09- present. All types of records have fallen, snowfall, rainfall and temperatures. I believe since this type of winter weather happens so infrequently here in the US, the GFS models really don't know what to make of it.

We are going from a milder period/quiet period, possibly back into the "icebox" for much of the Eastern Conus in an active split Jet pattern, and GFS models are confused.
634. xcool
A HURRICANE SEASON PRELIM:


(first issued Monday to private interests)


My forecast will raise eyebrows, as I believe a major landfalling season is on the way, and certainly one that will cause much more disruption to energy interests and higher insurance costs. The current El Nino WILL NOT continue into the hurricane season, and the moistening of the atmosphere over the tropics that has occurred during the Nino will mean worldwide there will be more activity. For the Atlantic Basin, this has the chance to be an extreme season, certainly much greater than last season.

There are two main physical drivers here that have me very concerned.

1) The aforementioned El Nino means that humidity levels will be higher over the deep tropics this year. My research has shown that when El Ninos are coming on, very often there is plenty of dry air in the deep tropics over the Atlantic beforehand. We saw that in '06 and '09 and it led to lesser numbers. I caught it in '09 much better than '06, but the reason has to do with the state of the atmosphere beforehand, because not all El Ninos produce non-seasons ('04 and '69 for example, big seasons with El Ninos). The collapse of the Nino very often is signaled by the opposite and a preliminary look indicates a much more friendly humidity pattern is evolving! This would not be as big a concern, though of some concern, if the El Nino did not wane, or a strong La Nina developed. I do not see a strong La Nina for this season (that has the effect of keeping storms farther south). And it would not have the weight it has if it was not for what has happened in the Atlantic with the water temps! 2) It is opposite of what I was looking at last year. The warm water is south of 30 north, and there is colder water in the central Atlantic. This focuses upward motion over the tropical breeding grounds. The European is already seeing this, as it's carrying a reversal to higher-than-normal pressures in the tropical Pacific and lower-than-normal pressures in the very areas that we used as a way of downplaying last year.

I need to watch the pressures in the Atlantic in the month of May, and some of the other tools I use, but if they go as I suspect, a spray year with above-normal threats on ALL THE U.S. COAST, perhaps similar to 2008, is on the way. In fact, it is very disturbing to note that in the package are years such as 1995, 2005 and 1964. This is a preliminary look, but a heads up to all of you. Keep in mind that it was me last March who touted the down year and said the Nino was coming on. It was me who circled the area hammered the year before and said there would be very little activity. I don't want to here the HYPE HYPE HYPE crowd scream because last year was dead on, and the year before was even more than the nasty season advertised. It is what it is...

My long standing fear for the East Coast remains as the cooling Pacific and the still warm overall Atlantic is the overall setup that enhances East Coast activity as we saw in the last attack of the hurricanes on the East Coast, mainly in the '50s. I believe, in spite of storms of tropical origin and the damage they caused last year on the East Coast, most notably the Jersey Devil and the ghost of Ida, the East Coast has fared very well in this time of hurricane hardship. I do believe we are in the waning years of this current uptick in the Atlantic, perhaps another 5 to at most 10, before rationality returns to the Atlantic Basin. Given naming techniques and satellites, it will never be as low as it was, but will be what it would have been in the '60s and '70s if we had the same namers as we have now.

Our forecasts have spoken for themselves over the years. I think we all saw the lesser number and shift northeast in the threat area last year, the big season forecast the year before. The errors in '07 and '06 were more letter than spirit of the law. The La Nina got very strong in '07, and what activity there was in '06 was to the northeast of the mega season of '05. Since the La Nina is not expected to be strong this year, the stage is set, for the reasons given above, for a more active season and one that will have more than normal impact on the U.S. coast against the running 20 year means.

Since I don't want to get into the TPC name game out in the middle of nowhere, the forecast as of now calls for 15 total storms west of 55 west. Crucial landfall ideas: seven landfalls, five hurricanes, two or three major landfalls. This is the kind of season that has me worried about Florida as a center point, and from this stage, areas north and west also, but with the center of the congregation of landfalling tracks near Florida.

The big thing to take from this... As of this writing, we are in for a very different season from last year. Collapsing Ninos with warm Atlantic water and lower-than-normal pressures in the southwestern Atlantic Basin during the summer are not to be taken lightly!

The global warming crowd, reduced to blaming the snow on global warming this year after blaming lack of snow on it in previous years, will be able to proudly point to the hurricanes this year, and so the debate will rage on. Something for all of us to look forward to, eh?

Ciao for now. ******

Joe's MeteorologicalAccuWeather,com
Quoting Jeff9641:


THe GFS has been doing a terrible job lately. I wonder why this is, is it human error?


You don't only have to look at the GFS. You can look at GFS ensembles or other models.
Quoting Bordonaro:


We have also been in a very unusual weather pattern since late Nov 09- present. All types of records have fallen, snowfall, rainfall and temperatures. I believe since this type of winter weather happens so infrequently here in the US, the GFS models really don't know what to make of it.

We are going from a milder period/quiet period, possibly back into the "icebox" for much of the Eastern Conus in an active split Jet, and GFS models are confused.


The GFS hates split-jets lol. It has a problem identifying differences between airmasses when the southern branch isn't thoroughly involved. When a storm forms because of the difference between modified cold air and fresh arctic air, it has a problem, and tries to bring in stuff out of the Gulf of Mexico, because the model can't imagine a nor'easter coming from anywhere else lol.
Torrential rain sparks Haiti shelter emergency

Providing shelter for hundreds of thousands of homeless earthquake victims in Haiti jumped to the top of the relief priorities after heavy rain turned makeshift survivors' camps into muddy quagmires.

Several hours of overnight rain, much of it torrential, battered the thousands of crude cloth tents and huts in the quake-shattered capital Port-au-Prince, turning the ground between them to mud and soaking their occupants.

It was the second downpour in a week and the prospect of more rain on the way has added urgency to the government's appeal for tents and temporary living structures in which to house the homeless, estimated at more than 1 million following the catastrophic January 12 earthquake.

"The rain has been falling. When we get two, three days of it, what will this be like?" Jean Pierre Rosier said as he and other residents of a ramshackle survivors' camp in the Delmas 33 neighbourhood waded through ankle-deep muddy water.

Morning sunshine allowed the camp residents to dry some of their sodden clothes and possessions and hurriedly dig drainage ditches.

But Haiti's leaders have put providing adequate shelter for the quake homeless at the top of their requests to foreign governments and relief organisations.

"Every time I meet with foreign leaders and delegations, I tell them that is the most urgent need," President Rene Preval said.

"Now that we've attended to the wounded, taken away the dead and we're distributing food and water, the problem of shelter, the tents, is the most urgent," he said.

-Reuters
Post on #634, JB may be onto something here. However I would not be nearly as bold as to forecast landfalling hurricanes.

We will have a "very interesting" 2010 Atl Hurricane Season this year.
Tornado tears through crops

A tornado has ripped through far north Queensland, amazing onlookers.

Residents say the tornado travelled through an area just south of Atherton yesterday afternoon, damaging crops.

Atherton resident Chris told ABC Local Radio, the tornado was strong enough to throw a pile of tractor tyres 100 metres into the air.

"I just couldn't believe my eyes. To the left of me, off the road there, a tornado, a funnel actually dropped," he said.

"The funnel was clear as. It went right up into the sky and you could see it dropping and as it was moving you could actually see it spinning the dust and the corn and it was all coming up to there."

Maize farmer Adrian Gallo says the tornado was about 10 metres wide and went straight through a pile of farming equipment.

"We've basically gone through the property, collecting gear - there's some gear that we've picked up 500 metres away," he said.

"There's a lot that's lost in the grass that we can't find.

"The tyres - I think the furthermost one would have been 50 metres away from where it was."

Weather bureau forecaster Bill O'Connor says the tornado was caused by a passing storm.

"In the past, we've seen damage that's obviously from a tornado. Any thunderstorm has the potential of producing one," he said.

Mr O'Connor says he was surprised by power of the tornado.

"Generally up here we don't get tornados that powerful I suppose but I think they are a little more frequent than what we give them credit for," he said.

"Fortunately they tend to develop in areas that aren't that inhabited."


- ABC
Quoting Bordonaro:
Post on #634, JB may be onto something here. However I would not be nearly as bold as to forecast landfalling hurricanes.

We will have a "very interesting" 2010 Atl Hurricane Season this year.


Well that's what Joe does. He did the same thing last year and nailed the track congregation as well as the low season number total.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Lets get back to GW

Do we really have to? (rolling eyes)
Accuweather's Joe Bastardi Forecast (Summer-Winter) 2009-2010

Quoting Bordonaro:
Post on #634, JB may be onto something here. However I would not be nearly as bold as to forecast landfalling hurricanes.

We will have a "very interesting" 2010 Atl Hurricane Season this year.


JB's a jackass. He makes these bold predictions to drive people to "accuguess". I understand that he is a meteorologist, but so am I and its absurd and downright dumb on his part to predict landfalling hurricanes 6 months in advance. Its also very unprofessional to "pat yourself on the back" when you get a forecast correct. I don't do it, and the last time I checked, isn't that what we as meteorologists get paid for. C'mon Joe !!
Quoting Levi32:


Well that's what Joe does. He did the same thing last year and nailed the track congregation as well as the low season number total.


And at this time last year people were ridiculing him nonstop. Glad to see he's getting some respect now.
Quoting Chucktown:


JB's a jackass. He makes these bold predictions to drive people to "accuguess". I understand that he is a meteorologist, but so am I and its absurd and downright dumb on his part to predict landfalling hurricanes 6 months in advance. Its also very unprofessional to "pat yourself on the back" when you get a forecast correct. I don't do it, and the last time I checked, isn't that what we as meteorologists get paid for. C'mon Joe !!


So you call trying to improve long-range forecasting and make more accurate predictions absurd? That's ridiculous dude. Check his records, he's right on a lot of stuff. And he's not a hypist because remember he led the pack down on forecasting a below-average hurricane season last year.

And why does he pat himself on the back? To help him keep subscribers at Accuweather because he is a major backbone of a huge private weather organization, so of course he's going to remind his clients why they are paying to see him.
Quoting Levi32:


So you call trying to improve long-range forecasting and make more accurate predictions absurd? That's ridiculous dude. Check his records, he's right on a lot of stuff. And he's not a hypist because remember he led the pack down on forecasting a below-average hurricane season last year.

And why does he pat himself on the back? To help him keep subscribers at Accuweather because he is a major backbone of a huge private weather organization, so of course he's going to remind his clients why they are paying to see him.


Even a blind squirrel finds a nut. He works for tabloid weather and thats all it is. He makes sure everyone knows when he's right, but when a "hype" storm misses its quickly swept under the rug. I've been doing weather for 20 years and Accuweather hasn't changed.
Quoting Levi32:


So you call trying to improve long-range forecasting and make more accurate predictions absurd? That's ridiculous dude. Check his records, he's right on a lot of stuff. And he's not a hypist because remember he led the pack down on forecasting a below-average hurricane season last year.

And why does he pat himself on the back? To help him keep subscribers at Accuweather because he is a major backbone of a huge private weather organization, so of course he's going to remind his clients why they are paying to see him.


Levi!! when did you get back!? How the hell are ya? I agree Bastardi basically nailed that 09-10 winter forecast...
Quoting Chucktown:


JB's a jackass. He makes these bold predictions to drive people to "accuguess". I understand that he is a meteorologist, but so am I and its absurd and downright dumb on his part to predict landfalling hurricanes 6 months in advance. Its also very unprofessional to "pat yourself on the back" when you get a forecast correct. I don't do it, and the last time I checked, isn't that what we as meteorologists get paid for. C'mon Joe !!

JB
Quoting Chucktown:


Even a blind squirrel finds a nut. He works for tabloid weather and thats all it is. He makes sure everyone knows when he's right, but when a "hype" storm misses its quickly swept under the rug. I've been doing weather for 20 years and Accuweather hasn't changed.


Alright think what you like. I gotta defend the guy he's amazing, and the only reason people hate him so much is because he's not with the government. I say to everyone get the heck over it and accept the fact that the guy is a genius. He also nailed the winter forecast did he not? This winter has been cold and snowy in the south and eastern US, has it not? NOAA didn't forecast that did they?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Levi!! when did you get back!? How the hell are ya? I agree Bastardi basically nailed that 09-10 winter forecast...


Yesterday when I discovered Invest 90C and couldn't stay away lol. I'm doing alright. I've got some time for a little while so I hope to be around. Nice to see ya :)
Quoting Levi32:


The GFS hates split-jets lol. It has a problem identifying differences between airmasses when the southern branch isn't thoroughly involved. When a storm forms because of the difference between modified cold air and fresh arctic air, it has a problem, and tries to bring in stuff out of the Gulf of Mexico, because the model can't imagine a nor'easter coming from anywhere else lol.


The way I see it is the GFS is forecasting the teleconnections well but doesn't know what to do with it. GFS shows significant Greenland blocking giving way to a deep longwave trough in the east in accordance with a west-based negative NAO. Teleconnections show a large negative EPO western ridge and a negative AO which supports the concentration of the cold air central and eastern portions of the country. I don't think the GFS is handling the amplification or deamplifcatiion of systems rounding the base of this trough with an active southern branch of the jet stream. With a strong southern jet in can shove everything into the GOM as you have mentioned.
Saxby's gale was a monster storm that hit Canada in the 1860s it was called Saxby's gale because a forecaster with the last name of Saxby said a combination of lunar effects would create a storm the following year. He was correct almost to the day. The science is unfounded. This either gives hope to long range forecasting or more likely shows how eventually someone will guess right.
Quoting Drakoen:


The way I see it is the GFS is forecasting the teleconnections well but doesn't know what to do with it. GFS shows significant Greenland blocking giving way to a deep longwave trough in the east in accordance with a west-based negative NAO. Teleconnections show a large negative EPO western ridge and a negative AO which supports the concentration of the cold air central and eastern portions of the country. I don't think the GFS is handling the amplification or deamplifcatiion of systems rounding the base of this trough with an active southern branch of the jet stream. With a strong southern jet in can shove everything into the GOM as you have mentioned.


Drak, you hit that right on the head of the nail.
Chucktown is correct. Bastardi makes some right predictions and plenty of wrong ones. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. I'm not saying that JB is less accurate than other meteorologists, but he gives himself WAY too much credit. JB is not someone I care to watch.
By the way....does anyone remember seeing anything like this before? Good job Global Warming eh? The GW alarmists gotta love this:

Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Chucktown is correct. Bastardi makes some right predictions and plenty of wrong ones. Even a broken clock is right twice a day. I'm not saying that JB is less accurate than other meteorologists, but he gives himself WAY too much credit. JB is not someone I care to watch.


Well I think you guys just aren't used to a Meteorologist having to advertise for the company he works for. It's the private sector after all. And obviously nobody's going to be right 100% of the time.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Tornado tears through crops

A tornado has ripped through far north Queensland, amazing onlookers.

Residents say the tornado travelled through an area just south of Atherton yesterday afternoon, damaging crops.

Atherton resident Chris told ABC Local Radio, the tornado was strong enough to throw a pile of tractor tyres 100 metres into the air.

"I just couldn't believe my eyes. To the left of me, off the road there, a tornado, a funnel actually dropped," he said.

"The funnel was clear as. It went right up into the sky and you could see it dropping and as it was moving you could actually see it spinning the dust and the corn and it was all coming up to there."

Maize farmer Adrian Gallo says the tornado was about 10 metres wide and went straight through a pile of farming equipment.

"We've basically gone through the property, collecting gear - there's some gear that we've picked up 500 metres away," he said.

"There's a lot that's lost in the grass that we can't find.

"The tyres - I think the furthermost one would have been 50 metres away from where it was."

Weather bureau forecaster Bill O'Connor says the tornado was caused by a passing storm.

"In the past, we've seen damage that's obviously from a tornado. Any thunderstorm has the potential of producing one," he said.

Mr O'Connor says he was surprised by power of the tornado.

"Generally up here we don't get tornados that powerful I suppose but I think they are a little more frequent than what we give them credit for," he said.

"Fortunately they tend to develop in areas that aren't that inhabited."


- ABC
as time passes you will witness more of these and more often and wait till yeah see the size of the hail
Quoting Levi32:


This would be the year that the ACE makes a comeback though. The El Nino this winter has warmed and humidified the atmosphere in the tropics, making it ready for more activity. Once the El Nino collapses, as it already is beginning to do, that will set the stage for a more favorable upper-level pattern, which would allow more storms both in frequency and intensity. We'll see how it turns out, but I believe it is quite safe to say this season will be far more active than last year.
True, A.C.E. will make A comeback this year but decades of data point to a gradual increase. Granted, last year may have been an annomoly, but to say "it is quite safe to say this season will be far more active than last year" may be a stretch. We'll see...
Quoting Levi32:


Well I think you guys just aren't used to a Meteorologist having to advertise for the company he works for. It's the private sector after all. And obviously nobody's going to be right 100% of the time.


JB goes above and beyond the call of duty. He likes to sensationalize every forecast he makes, I prefer the facts without insane hype. A lil hype is good, JB is just out of control. To each their own!
Quoting Levi32:
By the way....does anyone remember seeing anything like this before? Good job Global Warming eh? The GW alarmists gotta love this:


Ya know there are other countries besides America
besides one day of an unusual event can neither prove or disprove GW you should know that by now.
Quoting Levi32:


Well I think you guys just aren't used to a Meteorologist having to advertise for the company he works for. It's the private sector after all. And obviously nobody's going to be right 100% of the time.


I work in the private sector as well and while I agree you can't be always right, don't make outlandish forecasts just to get word out. As far as I'm concerned he's wrong more than he's right - but he may want it that way. One thing I always learned in TV, as bad as it sounds, bad exposure is better than no exposure.
Quoting NttyGrtty:
True, A.C.E. will make A comeback this year but decades of data point to a gradual increase. Granted, last year may have been an annomoly, but to say "it is quite safe to say this season will be far more active than last year" may be a stretch. We'll see...


What is the A.C.E. abbreviation stand for folks?
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Ya know there are other countries besides America
besides one day of an unusual event can neither prove or disprove GW you should know that by now.


I didn't say it did. It sure is funny how they try to say that GW now CAUSES the snowstorms. What next?

K let's not go further we all know GW is a non-ending debate.
Quoting Bordonaro:


What is the A.C.E. abbreviation stand for folks?


Accumulated Cyclone Energy.
Quoting Levi32:


Accumulated Cyclone Energy.

Thank you Levi!
Perfect example from the "School of Bastardi". There is no way this wasn't scripted. It wasn't live so it had to be edited by Acuuweather, so they meant for this to go public.

Link
668. ackee
I know NHC has change the time they will issue storm watch and warning for this seasons does anyone know if storm surge watch and warning will be issue diffrently for geograhly region as well anyone
Terra MODIS high-resolution visible shot of Invest 90C. I overlayed the approximate position of the LLC.

Quoting Chucktown:
Perfect example from the "School of Bastardi". There is no way this wasn't scripted. It wasn't live so it had to be edited by Acuuweather, so they meant for this to go public.

Link


As if that guy had anything to do with JB. Maybe he's just a really crazy funny guy. His viewers love him. Enough said.
Quoting Levi32:


Alright think what you like. I gotta defend the guy he's amazing, and the only reason people hate him so much is because he's not with the government. I say to everyone get the heck over it and accept the fact that the guy is a genius. He also nailed the winter forecast did he not? This winter has been cold and snowy in the south and eastern US, has it not? NOAA didn't forecast that did they?


I read his column every day. I also admire the guy. He makes the long-range low-percentage forecast that no one else even attempts. He's got a lot of guts. He owns when he's wrong and he is always out in front of the pack.
Quoting ackee:
I know NHC has change the time they will issue storm watch and warning for this seasons does anyone know if storm surge watch and warning will be issue diffrently for geograhly region as well anyone


As far as I know they only changed the advance times of TS and Hurricane watches/warnings. Storm surge warnings should remain the same.
Quoting Levi32:
By the way....does anyone remember seeing anything like this before? Good job Global Warming eh? The GW alarmists gotta love this.

Your creditability just took a nose dive…I have no horse in this race, as I have no expertise on the subject.. But to point out because one small part of the planet has some record cold and snow, no way proves or disproves CC...It's not logical… jmho
JB predicted the snow threat down to I10 twelve days before it happened.
Quoting Levi32:


I didn't say it did. It sure is funny how they try to say that GW now CAUSES the snowstorms. What next?

K let's not go further we all know GW is a non-ending debate.

true many GW believers turn any weather event into proof of GW
still I think it exists and even if it doesn't the steps to reduce GW reduce our dependency on oil and have countless positive impacts on the environment
674. GeoffreyWPB 3:00 PM AKST on February 18, 2010
Quoting Levi32:
By the way....does anyone remember seeing anything like this before? Good job Global Warming eh? The GW alarmists gotta love this.

Your creditability just took a nose dive…I have no horse in this race, as I have no expertise on the subject.. But to point out because one small part of the planet has some record cold and snow, no way proves or disproves CC...It's not logical… jmho
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

As I said, I never said that disproved global warming. However, this is sure a winter that puts a dent in what AGW people want everyone to believe, and this kind of thing makes them change their tune, as they now have in saying that GW will cause more snow.

That's all I'm saying.
Quoting Levi32:
By the way....does anyone remember seeing anything like this before? Good job Global Warming eh? The GW alarmists gotta love this:



One event does not prove or disapprove GW
Quoting Drakoen:


One event does not prove or disapprove GW


I'm about tired of explaining myself on this one. Let it go everyone. Anyone who knows me knows I wouldn't be that dumb. It was just a comment. I have an opinion on GW....everyone does.
680. ackee
Quoting Levi32:


As far as I know they only changed the advance times of TS and Hurricane watches/warnings. Storm surge warnings should remain the same.
Thanks
We have had 49 days this year, where i live 42 of them have been below average... did you see the picture of England completely ice packed like some Hollywood movie, and you are trying to tell me its the warmest on record. Thats an insult to my intelligence...
Can we stop talking about GW no one is going to win
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
We have had 49 days this year, where i live 42 of them have been below average... did you see the picture of England completely ice packed like some Hollywood movie, and you are trying to tell me its the warmest on record. Thats an insult to my intelligence...


The world has been warm this winter so far, but the big energy centers of the world (The far east, eastern USA, and Europe) have all been very cold. That has had a huge impact, but the world as a whole has been warm this winter as this graph shows:



And why has it been warm? The answer is simple: El Nino. When the biggest ocean in the world is warmer than normal, the atmosphere is going to warm as well.
Quoting Bordonaro:


JB goes above and beyond the call of duty. He likes to sensationalize every forecast he makes, I prefer the facts without insane hype. A lil hype is good, JB is just out of control. To each their own!
LOL!! Facts? and you're on this blog? good luck! No facts here, a lot of VERY educated opinions, but opinions none the less. All respect given to those with educated opinions...
Quoting Drakoen:


One event does not prove or disapprove GW


Not necessarily, the current litigation in process with respect to the EPA will require them to prove their CO2 endangerment finding. Considering that was based upon the IPCC report and nothing else, we will have some answers from that single event. No stone will be left unturned. Just my take :)

BTW, the debate is with the A and not the GW part.....
Quoting ackee:
I know NHC has change the time they will issue storm watch and warning for this seasons does anyone know if storm surge watch and warning will be issue diffrently for geograhly region as well anyone


Excerpt from Storm Surge Scales and Storm Surge Forecasting


New ways of communicating the threat have also been developed. NHC's probabilistic storm surge product, which provides the likelihood of storm surge values from 2 through 25 feet, became operational in 2009, and the NWS's Meteorological Development Laboratory is providing experimental, probabilistic storm surge exceedance products for 2010. In addition, coastal WFOs will provide experimental Tropical Cyclone Impacts Graphics in 2010; these include a qualitative graphic on the expected storm surge impacts. Finally, the NWS is exploring the possibility of issuing explicit Storm Surge Warnings, and such warnings could be implemented in the next couple of years. In all of these efforts, the NWS is working to provide specific and quantitative information to support decision-making at the local level.
Quoting Ossqss:


Not necessarily, the current litigation in process with respect to the EPA will require them to prove their CO2 endangerment finding. Considering that was based upon the IPCC report and nothing else, we will have some answers from that single event. No stone will be left unturned. Just my take :)

BTW, the debate is with the A and not the GW part.....


Correct all these computer models are complete guesses...
Stronger Hurricanes- Hasn't Happened.
Ice Shrinkage in the North countered by growth in the South.
Until an actual event that is stronger or more intense then anything weve ever seen before its all just a guess.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Correct all these computer models are complete guesses...
Stronger Hurricanes- Hasn't Happened.
Ice Shrinkage in the North countered by growth in the South.
Until an actual event that is stronger or more intense then anything weve ever seen before its all just a guess.


This may help :)

How Do Climate Models Work?
Quoting Ossqss:


This may help :)

How Do Climate Models Work?


So the models show the response of the warming. They do not actually predict the warming, humans put that in. Am i reading that right?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


So the models show the response of the warming. They do not actually predict the warming, humans put that in. Am i reading that right?


The climate models were developed during a time when the world was warming due to a warm PDO and warm AMO overlap. Because of that they had a cold bias back then. They corrected that bias, but now that the PDO is starting to cool and the AMO is soon to follow, the models have a warm bias because they were created and adjusted based on a warming earth. That's a theory...I don't have proof for that.

Don't be surprised if the earth cools a few tenths of a degree over the next 30 years. When the PDO and AMO go cold together, the atmosphere will respond due to the cold water. This relationship is easy to see when you look at history.
Quoting NttyGrtty:
LOL!! Facts? and you're on this blog? good luck! No facts here, a lot of VERY educated opinions, but opinions none the less. All respect given to those with educated opinions...

Yes, facts. There are actually several meteorologists and skilled business professionals on here. And I enjoy their knowledge, humor and expertise.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SIXTEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL GELANE (12-20092010)
4:00 AM Réunion February 19 2010
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Gelane (968 hPa) located at 16.3S 62.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.0

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
10 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
15 NM from the center extending up to 25 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale-Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
50 NM from the center extending up to 150 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.5S 61.8E - 75 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.5S 61.1E - 65 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 19.8S 60.2E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 21.2S 58.9E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
System reached again the stage of tropical cyclone and the system has slightly intensified, colder central dense overcast. According to ASCAT data at 1756z and microwave SSMIS at 1519z, GELANE is called a midget and microwave AQUA at 2131z shows a little tilt between 37 and 85 channel
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


So the models show the response of the warming. They do not actually predict the warming, humans put that in. Am i reading that right?


I often wonder about the influence of the homogenization and extrapolation processes on data that has been discussed recently on the models. I also wonder of the impact of other data on the models. (let alone the coding) As an example, how do the 12 or 5 tree ring samples from the Briffa study play in the coding and output of the models? I don't know, does anyone? I believe there are 23 models now, is that right?

I am not shooting darts, I really want to know........

Link
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


So the models show the response of the warming. They do not actually predict the warming, humans put that in. Am i reading that right?
Models don't "show" or "predict" anything. They simply calculate a solution based on the mathematical assumptions and equations they are comprised of. If the assumptions of the builders of the models are correct and the math geeks (I'm a math geek, so I can use that term) interpreted, understood and correctly wrote the code AND tested the model in a valid environment, it works. If any of the above is incorrect or any of innumerable "unknown unknowns" pop up, it doesn't. Modeling is all we've got in a bunch of situations but it TOTALLY depends on the educated opinions on the builders which, as has been shown, VARIES HUGELY.
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Models don't "show" or "predict" anything. They simply calculate a solution based on the mathematical assumptions and equations they are comprised of. If the assumptions of the builders of the models are correct and the math geeks (I'm a math geek, so I can use that term) interpreted, understood and correctly wrote the code AND tested the model in a valid environment, it works. If any of the above is incorrect or any of innumerable "unknown unknowns" pop up, it doesn't. Modeling is all we've got in a bunch of situations but it TOTALLY depends on the educated opinions on the builders which, as has been shown, VARIES HUGELY.


You said you were a math guy. What is your take on this item? PDF

Is it legit?

http://economics.huji.ac.il/facultye/beenstock/Nature_Paper091209.pdf
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
JB predicted the snow threat down to I10 twelve days before it happened.

So did the GFS.
699. JRRP
how will be the ACE this season ???
Quoting JRRP:
how will be the ACE this season ???




it is way way way way way way way way way too soon to say how the ACE will be this season you have too wait in tell the season is overe too find out
We're supposed to get more snow Monday and Tuesday, I thought Dr. Masters said no more blizzards for at least a week.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
We're supposed to get more snow Monday and Tuesday, I thought Dr. Masters said no more blizzards for at least a week.

I believe Monday will make one full week since Dr Masters said that.

An active spit-flow pattern will develop on Sunday and continue throughout next week. This will be an interesting weather week to ten days!
Quoting all4hurricanes:
We're supposed to get more snow Monday and Tuesday, I thought Dr. Masters said no more blizzards for at least a week.


Since when does "some more snow" equate a blizzard?
704. JRRP
Quoting Tazmanian:




it is way way way way way way way way way too soon to say how the ACE will be this season you have too wait in tell the season is overe too find out

ok
Quoting Ossqss:


You said you were a math guy. What is your take on this item? PDF

Is it legit?

http://economics.huji.ac.il/facultye/beenstock/Nature_Paper091209.pdf
It appears legit but I would have to test the assumptions and run the polynomials, How much money do you have? I'm not cheap...LOL!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Since when does "some more snow" equate a blizzard?

he said no more major storms and this one is supposed to be major
run the polynomials


Do these come in vanilla?
j/k
;>)
hey guys check this out

17 Feb 2009


17 Feb 2010
Down to 50 here in Lake Worth, Fla.
Quoting StormW:


Even though it's not "set in stone", you can look at the parameters and extrapolate out. I mean, just by the weakening of El Nino and above avg SST's in the Atlantic MDR, where would you think most of the energy will be? Yes, conditions change, however the CFS has done a good job at predicting the monthly mean SLP as I've noticed in past seasons. The pressures it is giving, indicates for the most part, a negative NAO, which in turn implies a weaker A/B high. Weaker A/B high, weaker trades. Weaker trades would provide warmer SST's, and heat build up in the tropical MDR. The weaker A/B high would also contribute to less upwelling off the African coast, and somewhat reduce SAL outbreaks.

With a weakening El Nino, and if neutral conditions are in place, the combination of the lack of energy, and weaker Atlantic trades would have the tendency to lessen wind shear.

Right now, I personally feel the real unknown factors at the moment are TCHP, Sahel rainfall, strentgh of the AEJ, and the timing of El Nino's demise, as far as the atmosphere finally settling out.

The setup right now of the SST's in the Atlantic are aiding or should aid in more moisture in the MDR.

Given this, and the fact we just had 9 named storms in a moderate to strong El Nino, wouldn't you say the 2010 season is going to be more active? I think Bastardi's number of 15 is not out of the question, though my preliminary is 14, 7, 3.



that is just an outstanding explanation of something I, too, have wondered about...if you can make me understand, you,ve really done something...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Down to 50 here in Lake Worth, Fla.


It's 45 degrees at my house here in suburban Lake Worth
As always...I am going off my clock-mometer...Drak, are you close to the Lake Worth-Palm Springs limits? I know you use the WU PWS. Not that it matters.
715. JRRP
Quoting StormW:


Even though it's not "set in stone", you can look at the parameters and extrapolate out. I mean, just by the weakening of El Nino and above avg SST's in the Atlantic MDR, where would you think most of the energy will be? Yes, conditions change, however the CFS has done a good job at predicting the monthly mean SLP as I've noticed in past seasons. The pressures it is giving, indicates for the most part, a negative NAO, which in turn implies a weaker A/B high. Weaker A/B high, weaker trades. Weaker trades would provide warmer SST's, and heat build up in the tropical MDR. The weaker A/B high would also contribute to less upwelling off the African coast, and somewhat reduce SAL outbreaks.

With a weakening El Nino, and if neutral conditions are in place, the combination of the lack of energy, and weaker Atlantic trades would have the tendency to lessen wind shear.

Right now, I personally feel the real unknown factors at the moment are TCHP, Sahel rainfall, strentgh of the AEJ, and the timing of El Nino's demise, as far as the atmosphere finally settling out.

The setup right now of the SST's in the Atlantic are aiding or should aid in more moisture in the MDR.

Given this, and the fact we just had 9 named storms in a moderate to strong El Nino, wouldn't you say the 2010 season is going to be more active? I think Bastardi's number of 15 is not out of the question, though my preliminary is 14, 7, 3.


pretty interesting
Let's see if the GFS starts spitting out Hurricanes in April like it did last year.
Was 49 an hour ago. Drak almost directly across from you on the other cost, just a bit further south.
Press, finally some spring weather this weekend. Beats the snow from last week.
Quoting NttyGrtty:
It appears legit but I would have to test the assumptions and run the polynomials, How much money do you have? I'm not cheap...LOL!


Well, lets start with this item.

If you can make the pink dots go away by staring at the center, and only see the rotating green one, it should be free. LoL

Just for fun....... :0)

Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
As always...I am going off my clock-mometer...Drak, are you close to the Lake Worth-Palm Springs limits? I know you use the WU PWS. Not that it matters.


I'm back near the turnpike and 441 your are closer to the coast.
Quoting Ossqss:


Well, lets start with this item.

If you can make the pink dots go away by staring at the center, and only see the rotating green one, it should be free. LoL

Just for fun....... :0)

Excellent MONOnomial...color change...add the rest in the document you posted and a month or so of analysis...just for fun
Quoting NttyGrtty:
Excellent MONOnomial...color change...add the rest in the document you posted and a month or so of analysis...just for fun


LoL, the image did not change, I think our perception of it did!

I still can't afford it...no matter the cost... XD

Have a happy all, L8R
Either this is a glitch, or the entire global oceans warmed by 1C since yesterday. Most of the 30C+ and 31C+ temperatures in the Indian and Pacific Oceans did not exist on this map yesterday:



Current global SST anomalies:

hey guys is window 7 the best or what?
Off topic here also...

For you mathematicians or statisticians, I work at a Greyhound race track. There are 8 Greyhounds in each race. We have 15 races per afternoon. The odds of any particular order of finish are 40,320-1. Now my question….What would the odds be if the same exact order of finish happened in two consecutive races? And thank you for those who answered via email.
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey guys is window 7 the best or what?


It runs a lot smoother than vista I will say that much.
727. xcool
windows 7 useing low RAM like windows XP :)
728. xcool
16-7-4 2010 "_
I know Grothar can figure it out.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Either this is a glitch, or the entire global oceans warmed by 1C since yesterday. Most of the 30C+ and 31C+ temperatures in the Indian and Pacific Oceans did not exist on this map yesterday:

Okay, everyone that uses the WU SST map for in-depth analysis raise your hand...

(Really, that map is usually suspect. To be used for a general glance, only, IMHO.)
731. BtnTx
Quoting Tazmanian:
hey guys is window 7 the best or what?
I use Windows 7 Professional & XP Professional on laptops w/4G RAM and I like them both better than Vista. Both are fast and effective.
732. xcool
Vista. sux
GFS 00z shows significant snow storm for Texas
GeoffreyWPB:
Off topic here also...

For you mathematicians or statisticians, I work at a Greyhound race track. There are 8 Greyhounds in each race. We have 15 races per afternoon. The odds of any particular order of finish are 40,320-1. Now my question%u2026.What would the odds be if the same exact order of finish happened in two consecutive races? And thank you for those who answered via email.


Aggie...you are ultra-smart...have an answer?
Quoting xcool:
Vista. sux

Micro$#!t sux.

*this message brought to you by the stable, free, and secure OS, a.k.a. Linux*
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Aggie...you are ultra-smart...have an answer?

Don't get carried away, there...

And, sorry, first reaction is to square and minus one your initial odds, but brain is asleep.
00Z 2/19/10 GFS Run
Surface Map 120HRS out, Tu 2-23-10 @6PM CST Dallas-Ft Worth, TX snow &/or ice event:
Quoting Drakoen:
GFS 00z shows significant snow storm for Texas

No kidding! It has been showing snow in the solution on and off for a few days now, but this is by far the most shown thus far.



Height of the storm (120 hours)



Liquid equivalent for the duration of the event (36 hours ending 138 hours out).
Quoting Bordonaro:
00Z 2/19/10 GFS Run, Surface Map 120HRS out, Tu 2-23-10, Dallas-Ft Worth, TX snow &/or ice event:


That looks like mainly snow to me. 850mb temps running between -3C to -6C and 850mb-700mb thickness running sub 152dm.
740. BtnTx
Quoting atmoaggie:

Micro$#!t sux.

*this message brought to you by the stable, free, and secure OS, a.k.a. Linux*
Micro**** helped me make $millions: No Regrets

Quoting atmoaggie:

Don't get carried away, there...

And, sorry, first reaction is to square and minus one your initial odds, but brain is asleep.


I read and respect your posts all the time. The scenerio I brought up happened a few weeks ago. Just curious if the odds of that happening can be calculated.
Area Forecast Discussion
NWS Dallas-Ft Worth, TX
Issued at 3:05PM CST today, the portion dealing with next Tu/We:

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUFFER FROM DISCREPANCIES BEYOND SUNDAY
WITH EACH MODEL BRINGING STORM SYSTEMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON
DIFFERENT DAYS. THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS ON TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS. THE ECMWF HINTS THAT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL ENOUGH FOR WINTER PRECIPITATION ON TUESDAY. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS BRINGS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ACROSS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRECIPITATION HOLDING OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY. THE
GFS ALSO HINTS AT WINTER PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. UNTIL THE MODELS CAN CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION OR MORE
CONSISTENCY CAN BE REACHED...WILL CONTINUE WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST OF LOW POPS AND ALL LIQUID QPF IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST...BUT CONTINUE TO CLOSELY WATCH NEXT WEEK.

WITH AN ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUING NEXT WEEK...HAVE TRENDED ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF MOS WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES.

82/JLD
743. beell
Check out the hint of a closed low at 120 hrs/850mb right off the coast of Brownsville.

Link
744. xcool
atmoaggie ;lol
Drak, if Dallas-Ft Worth, TX receives 2" of snow, we will set an all time record for yearly snowfall. Our records go back to 1898.
Quoting beell:
Check out the hint of a closed low at 120 hrs/850mb right off the coast of Brownsville.

Link

Got a nice Vort max with it at 850.

Quoting BtnTx:
Micro**** helped me make $millions: No Regrets


Ehh, I know your position. Linux aptitude gets me paid, too.
748. beell
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I read and respect your posts all the time. The scenerio I brought up happened a few weeks ago. Just curious if the odds of that happening can be calculated.

Of course, they can. Just need a statistician...or a bookie...
749...I wish I knew!
Quoting Bordonaro:
Drak, if Dallas-Ft Worth, TX receives 2" of snow, we will set an all time record for yearly snowfall. Our records go back to 18998.


If the GFS 00z verifies you would receive 6-9inches conservatively. I see a complete subfreezing layer between 1000mb-500mb. The GFS paints .75-1 inch of liquid across your area. Can't wait to see the bufkit data on this.
753. BtnTx
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ehh, I know your position. Linux aptitude gets me paid, too.
I understand Linux good to know & I want to learn when I can make the time!
To part with a funny (and yes, this is tongue in cheek) I think we have rather completely solved the cause of observed warming. It has been driven by...
...
...the cost of a stamp.

755. xcool
GeoffreyWPB ?
Quoting BtnTx:
I understand Linux good to know & I want to learn when I can make the time!

What I can give in the way of advice is to take the plunge. Go all command line until you can easily navigate and run file operations before you go Gnome, KDE, etc. (graphical window system) if you really want to learn it.

Or, if you just want to be a proficient user, with the usual graphic interface we (almost) all depend on, go ahead and install Ubuntu. Really does install readily and everything works from the start. (even hot keys, hibernate, wireless, bluetooth, etc.)

(can you believe I have more machines in my office without a mouse attached than with? HIDs not useful for computational work-horses...)
Quoting Drakoen:


If the GFS 00z verifies you would receive 6-9inches conservatively. I see a complete subfreezing layer between 1000mb-500mb. The GFS paints .75-1 inch of liquid across your area. Can't wait to see the bufkit data on this.

I feel like I have moved back to Buffalo, NY!! Well, not exactly, but this 6-9" of snow will be interesting to see.

Quoting atmoaggie:
To part with a funny (and yes, this is tongue in cheek) I think we have rather completely solved the cause of observed warming. It has been driven by...
...
...the cost of a stamp.

Just wish many of you guys would join science on this topic, makes me question what many of you say.
I'm waiting for these maps to update and see how much that run really does bring some of us.
760. beell
Quoting xcool:
GeoffreyWPB ?


I do hope he was speaking to me, xcool.
It would be an honor.
761. BtnTx
Quoting atmoaggie:

What I can give in the way of advice is to take the plunge. Go all command line until you can easily navigate and run file operations before you go Gnome, KDE, etc. (graphical window system) if you really want to learn it.

Or, if you just want to be a proficient user, with the usual graphic interface we (almost) all depend on, go ahead and install Ubuntu. Really does install readily and everything works from the start. (even hot keys, hibernate, wireless, bluetooth, etc.)

(can you believe I have more machines in my office without a mouse attached than with? HIDs not useful for computational work-horses...)
When I can make time I am likely to go Ubuntu 1st as it can be installed on a USB mem stick as per instructions from a co-worker. Thanks for the advice as I understand the value of command line knowledge!
762. xcool
oh
763. BtnTx
out for the night all!
00z gfs shows some flurries possible for me too :)
I can't stand monthly temps when it comes to this topic. It makes no sense, imo. Annual averages, based on a full trip around the sun, are the only valid measurement for assessment.

Here is that perspective:



Rotating Energy Reference: Maria D. Kazachenko et al 2009 ApJ 704 1146-1158

Rotating Record Reference: X. L. Yan et al 2008 ApJ 682 L65-L68

Temperature Reference: Dr. Roy Spencer, University of Alabama, Hunstville
I've only made post during hurricane season but I read this blog all year long for the insight you guys all provide.

I live on the south shore of long island and today was a beautiful day up here for the first time in months. My question is how long does everyone expect the negative NAO to continue? This winter has been by far the coldest I've ever seen the ocean temps off Long Island in 15+ years. I surf year round and usually I can take it for what it's worth but this year I've lost all motivation as the water temps have dropped to 34.9 degrees F at points during February. Is the neg NAO fading out? because I've noticed the recent increase in SST's in the Caribbean and Cape Verde, mostly what seems to be above average for this time of the year. For some reason I don't see spring really coming to the northeast until late april into may...been a really cold and strange winter. I live on a barrier island off the south shore of Long Island and on average we receive maybe a foot of snow per year, and this year we've already had two storms of 10+ inches and 18+ inches, and it seems to snow here every other day(twice as much as most areas in long island) which is very uncharacteristic of a barrier island. We've had snow on the ground for 3 weeks straight.

It's funny because I lived in wrightsville beach NC for a few years and the one year I don't go back ( I was beating myself up over not returning) is the coldest in 30 years.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number SEVENTEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GELANE (12-20092010)
10:00 AM Réunion February 19 2010
=================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Gelane (950 hPa) located at 16.7S 62.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/5.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
10 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
50 NM from the center extending up to 150 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.8S 61.6E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
24 HRS: 18.7S 61.0E - 70 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
48 HRS: 20.2S 59.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modereé)
72 HRS: 21.8S 58.3E - 25 knots (PERTURBATION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
Satellite imagery shows that GELANE has strengthened within the last 6 hrs. System is currently undergoing two opposite steering flows. A northwesterly flow steered by a mid level equatorial ridge and the easterly flow from the subtropical ridge, the system tracks therefore slowly southward then southwestwards. On Saturday, the system is forecasted undergoing a strengthening northwesterly vertical wind shear, steering flow should become progressively lower, and the track should become more westward due to the building subtropical ridge south of the system at the end of the forecast period. According to most of the available numerical weather prediction models, GELANE is expected to track southwards, hen south-southwestward to southwestward

Present foreceast is close to the consensus of the track issued from the available numerical weather prediction models. The models spread remains still large.

Intensity forecast is uncertain due to the system size. The system remains very sensible to little variations of environemental conditions. Present forecast is to keep GELANE at the stage of tropical cyclone for the next 24 hours, as environment remains rather good on the western edge of the upper level ridge. Beyond, environment should degrade progressively as an upper level trough is approaching from the west with increasing northwesterly shear. So GELANE should weaken rapidly.
here we go again haha

i can hear the rally cry from the bulls buy buy buy hopefully their right. 47 very comfortable another beautiful day ahead you got to be here to feel it e cent florida
Quoting atmoaggie:
To part with a

Global climate change, war, and population decline in recent human history

Although scientists have warned of possible social perils resulting from climate change, the impacts of long-term climate change on social unrest and population collapse have not been quantitatively investigated. In this study, high-resolution paleo-climatic data have been used to explore at a macroscale the effects of climate change on the outbreak of war and population decline in the preindustrial era. We show that long-term fluctuations of war frequency and population changes followed the cycles of temperature change. Further analyses show that cooling impeded agricultural production, which brought about a series of serious social problems, including price inflation, then successively war outbreak, famine, and population decline successively. The findings suggest that worldwide and synchronistic war–peace, population, and price cycles in recent centuries have been driven mainly by long-term climate change. The findings also imply that social mechanisms that might mitigate the impact of climate change were not significantly effective during the study period. Climate change may thus have played a more important role and imposed a wider ranging effect on human civilization than has so far been suggested. Findings of this research may lend an additional dimension to the classic concepts of Malthusianism and Darwinism.
http://www.pnas.org/content/104/49/19214.full
good morning guys what up
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
good morning guys what up




nada here. Reading the paper, drinking coffee.
Good Morning, Everyone
Looking at this morning's SSTs, I'm noticing several shocking things with the ocean currents:



A deep cold gash with waters as cool as 13C is forcing itself eastward at 40N, cutting off the main Gulf Stream above 20C and causing part of it to loop back southwestward.

The <20C zone of the Humboldt Current has been greatly reduced, extending only as far west as 77W, while at 30S which is normally the strongest part of the current the coldest temperatures are 19C and the coldest part anywhere in the current is 16C.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




nada here. Reading the paper, drinking coffee.

Just home from work, got a massive headache, just dropped in to see whats been happening.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number EIGHTEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GELANE (12-20092010)
16:00 PM Réunion February 19 2010
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Gelane (930 hPa) located at 17.4S 62.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
50 NM from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.5S 61.9E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 19.5S 61.5E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 21.1S 59.9E - 55 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.3S 57.3E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
GELANE keeps on intensifying. At this stage, it undergoes the northerly steering flow in relationship with the mid level ridge located in its northeast. As the system keeps on tracking southward or south southwestward it is not expected to undergo the previous forecast wind shear and should therefore not weaken significantly. On and after Saturday at 1200z, wind shear should become stronger and stronger in relationship with an approaching upper level trough. Due to its small size, GELANE is expected to weaken rapidly and to undergo the steering flow of the low to mid-level subtropical ridge. European numerical weather prediction models disagree with the American ones. The recurving movement is earlier for the first group. This forecast is based on a compromise of this two options, closer to the American's numerical weather prediction models at short range (more realistic with the present intensity).

--
Getting close to Category 5 storm on the Mauritius/Réunion scale
46 in Orlando this morning and it feels great outside. The cold is gone and now here comes the warm air. Low to mid 70's this weekend but next week looks very stormy across C and S FL. Normal El-Nino weather and it looks like next winter we may have an even stronger El-Nino with nuetral conditions this summer but strengthing again come fall.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory Number EIGHTEEN
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GELANE (12-20092010)
16:00 PM R%uFFFDunion February 19 2010
=================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Gelane (930 hPa) located at 17.4S 62.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 110 knots with gusts of 155 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D2.0/24 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
20 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center

Gale-Force Winds
================
40 NM from the center extending up to 70 NM in the southern semi-circle

Near Gale-Force Winds
=======================
50 NM from the center extending up to 120 NM in the southern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 18.5S 61.9E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 19.5S 61.5E - 90 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 21.1S 59.9E - 55 knots (Forte Temp%uFFFDte Tropicale)
72 HRS: 22.3S 57.3E - 30 knots (DEPRESSION Tropicale)

Additional Information
========================
GELANE keeps on intensifying. At this stage, it undergoes the northerly steering flow in relationship with the mid level ridge located in its northeast. As the system keeps on tracking southward or south southwestward it is not expected to undergo the previous forecast wind shear and should therefore not weaken significantly. On and after Saturday at 1200z, wind shear should become stronger and stronger in relationship with an approaching upper level trough. Due to its small size, GELANE is expected to weaken rapidly and to undergo the steering flow of the low to mid-level subtropical ridge. European numerical weather prediction models disagree with the American ones. The recurving movement is earlier for the first group. This forecast is based on a compromise of this two options, closer to the American's numerical weather prediction models at short range (more realistic with the present intensity).

--
Getting close to Category 5 storm on the Mauritius/R%uFFFDunion scale

it wont make cat 5 status. 120kts is Cat 5 Status for that area of the SW Indian Ocean.



Quoting AussieStorm:

it wont make cat 5 status.


Any thought of an El-Nino again come fall and winter? This next one could be stronger if some of these long range models verify.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just home from work, got a massive headache, just dropped in to see whats been happening.



Take two aspirin and call me in the morning!
Quoting Jeff9641:


Any thought of an El-Nino again come fall and winter? This next one could be stronger if some of these long range models verify.

From Australian BOM.
Summary: SOI falls though rainfall increases

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell sharply over the past fortnight. Although a weakening of the trade winds has contributed to this decrease, it can largely be attributed to tropical cyclone activity near Tahiti (particularly TC Oli) rather than any strong reinvigoration of El Niño.

This is supported by the sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean, which have eased very slightly towards their mean conditions during the past two weeks, though remain at levels typical of an El Niño event. However, the decreased trade winds have led to some warming below the surface, which may prolong the decay of the El Niño event in the Pacific. Similarly, climate models suggest that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures should gradually ease towards neutral values, though are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds into the southern autumn. Models surveyed currently show little to no indication of a reinvigoration of El Niño for 2010.

Recent rainfall over Australia appears fairly typical of past El Niño breakdowns. January 2007 (mainly SA/western Vic), February 2003, April 1998, January 1995, March 1983 and February 1973 all produced good rainfalls on the back of an El Niño event.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral and forecast to remain so through autumn. The IOD has a reduced impact upon Australia over the summer months.
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Looking at this morning's SSTs, I'm noticing several shocking things with the ocean currents:



A deep cold gash with waters as cool as 13C is forcing itself eastward at 40N, cutting off the main Gulf Stream above 20C and causing part of it to loop back southwestward.

The <20C zone of the Humboldt Current has been greatly reduced, extending only as far west as 77W, while at 30S which is normally the strongest part of the current the coldest temperatures are 19C and the coldest part anywhere in the current is 16C.


AND?
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



Take two aspirin and call me in the morning!

I don't have your number :-)
Quoting AussieStorm:


it wont make cat 5 status. 120kts is Cat 5 Status for that area of the SW Indian Ocean.






Correction, If it can get to or over 115kts sustained winds then it will reach Cat 5 Status for that part of the SW Indian Ocean. Sorry my bad.
Quoting AussieStorm:

From Australian BOM.
Summary: SOI falls though rainfall increases

The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) fell sharply over the past fortnight. Although a weakening of the trade winds has contributed to this decrease, it can largely be attributed to tropical cyclone activity near Tahiti (particularly TC Oli) rather than any strong reinvigoration of El Niño.

This is supported by the sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean, which have eased very slightly towards their mean conditions during the past two weeks, though remain at levels typical of an El Niño event. However, the decreased trade winds have led to some warming below the surface, which may prolong the decay of the El Niño event in the Pacific. Similarly, climate models suggest that tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures should gradually ease towards neutral values, though are likely to remain above El Niño thresholds into the southern autumn. Models surveyed currently show little to no indication of a reinvigoration of El Niño for 2010.

Recent rainfall over Australia appears fairly typical of past El Niño breakdowns. January 2007 (mainly SA/western Vic), February 2003, April 1998, January 1995, March 1983 and February 1973 all produced good rainfalls on the back of an El Niño event.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral and forecast to remain so through autumn. The IOD has a reduced impact upon Australia over the summer months.


The latest ensemble models show an increase in El-Nino come October. Each model run suggest that a return is likely and could get stronger than this winter's El-Nino. considering how we have had La-Nina or nuetral conditions the last two years I can see us getting 2 years of El-Nino.
Quoting StormW:


Post # 612 does show an increase come October and this is verified by some Met. professors that I had a few years back. Neutral conditions this summer YES but come fall El-Nino is likely to increase again.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Just home from work, got a massive headache, just dropped in to see whats been happening.


#1 TAKE TWO PAIN KILLERS
#2 TURN ON THE A/C OR FAN IN YOUR ROOM
#3 GO TO BED AND SLEEP AND TELL US HOW YOU FEEL AFTER
Quoting StormW:


Ok...thanks for the graphic reference. However, I have to slightly disagree with the professors...as the blue lines represent the most current fcst of the ensemble members...most of those are below 1.0, which, in my past years in forecasting, would indicate to me, more a of neutral, with a warm bias (0.5-1.0)


Thanks StormW, I wonder how this will interact with next winter. Could still favor a more southern storm track again with more cold air intrusions.
Quoting BtnTx:
I use Windows 7 Professional & XP Professional on laptops w/4G RAM and I like them both better than Vista. Both are fast and effective.
Yes, I agree that Windows 7 is fast and better than Vista. But why not try something even better known as mac OS X? ;) Have a real computing experience.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


#1 TAKE TWO PAIN KILLERS
#2 TURN ON THE A/C OR FAN IN YOUR ROOM
#3 GO TO BED AND SLEEP AND TELL US HOW YOU FEEL AFTER

I have taken my magic meds and i am pretty much fine now except for being a little tired.
Gulf water temps

Caribbean

Southeast
New Blog
Quoting AussieStorm:

I have taken my magic meds and i am pretty much fine now except for being a little tired.


THEN #3 IS THE BEST THIG TO DO NOW
With the El nino this winter I do remember reading about a colder than norm Feb and then above normal temps in March.
Time will tell since March is 8 days away.
I suspect after this week the pattern will change but it will take a few weeks for real warming because of the deep snowpack.