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Warmest April on record for the globe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:13 PM GMT on May 21, 2010

The globe recorded its warmest April since record keeping began in 1880, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Climatic Data Center. The April temperature anomaly of 0.76°C (1.37°F) beat the previous record set in 1998 by 0.05°C. The is the second consecutive warmest month on record. NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies also rated April 2010 as the warmest April on record. The year-to-date period, January - April, is the warmest such period on record, according to both NOAA and NASA. NASA also rated the last 12-month period (May 2009 - April 2010) as the warmest 12-month period on record. April 2010 global ocean temperatures were the warmest on record for the 2nd month in a row, while land temperatures were the 3rd warmest. Global satellite-measured temperatures for the lowest 8 km of the atmosphere were the 2nd warmest on record in April, according to both the University of Alabama Huntsville (UAH) and Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) groups.

For those interested, NCDC has a page of notable weather highlights from April 2010.


Figure 1. Departure of temperature from average for April 2010. Image credit: NOAA's National Climatic Data Center.

A very warm April for the U.S.
For the contiguous U.S., it was the 14th warmest April in the 116-year record, according to the National Climatic Data Center. California was the coldest state, relative to average, with its 12th coldest April. No state had a top-ten coldest April. Five states had their warmest April on record--Illinois, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New Jersey. Sixteen other states had top-ten warmest Aprils.

U.S. precipitation and drought
For the contiguous U.S., April 2010 ranked as the 36th driest in the 116-year record. Louisiana, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Connecticut, and Massachusetts all had top-ten driest Aprils. Only Oregon had a top-ten wet April. At the end of April, 2% of the contiguous United States was in severe-to-exceptional drought. This is the lowest April drought footprint in the U.S. in the past ten years.

El Niño is over
El Niño rapidly weakened during late April and early May, with sea surface temperatures over the tropical Eastern Pacific in the area 5°N - 5°S, 120°W - 170°W, also called the "Niña 3.4 region", falling 0.65°C in just one month. This brought SSTs into "neutral" conditions, at 0.18°C above average, which is well below the 0.5°C above average threshold to be considered an El Niño, according to the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The speed of the collapse of El Niño makes it likely that a La Niña event is on its way this summer. This is what happened during the last strong El Niño event in 1998--El Niño collapsed dramatically in May, and a strong La Niña event developed by hurricane season. Ten of the 23 El Niño models (updated as of May 19) are predicting La Niña conditions for hurricane season. The demise of El Niño, coupled with sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic that are currently at record levels, have prompted two major hurricane forecasting groups (tropicalstormrisk.com and Colorado State University) to predict a significantly above average 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Over the full 160-year period we have records of Atlantic hurricanes, La Niña years have typically had more hurricanes, and more strong hurricanes, compared to neutral years. However, since 1995, there hasn't been any difference between neutral and La Niña years in terms of hurricane activity.

April sea ice extent in the Arctic near average in April
April 2010 Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent was the 15th lowest (or 18th greatest) since satellite measurements began in 1979, so was near average. However, the ice volume anomaly was at a record low at the end of April, according to University of Washington Polar Ice Center. Wind patterns this spring have pushed a great deal of the oldest ice out of the Arctic, leaving mostly thin ice that is vulnerable to rapid melting. The first two weeks of May have seen unusual warmth in the Arctic, leading to rapid melting, and ice extent as of May 20 was the 2nd lowest on record, behind 2006, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC).

I'll be back this afternoon to talk about the oil spill and the tropics. I'm working on a post about how a hurricane passing over the spill might affect the oil. I'll post it if I have time to finish it.

Jeff Masters

Climate Summaries

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting Patrap:
LIVE BP Oil Spill Robot Cam
Quoting Weather456:


Merriam-Webster:

to analyze and interpret minutely

lol


Dissect is a general term, it is just most often used as in dissecting a human body.


144 hours Next Thursday
I see invest 90L has formed. Satellite imagery shows a sheared system with the convection east of the axis of vorticity which shows up well on the CIMSS 850mb vorticity. Satellite imagery depicts multiple low level vortices along this axis. Water vapor imagery shows dry air advection into the system associated with a shortwave trough.
Computer models show this system congealing over the next 48-72 hours developing a closed low and becoming a more warm-core type system as depicted on the cyclone phase diagrams. Looking at the modeled convection, temperature profile, and mid to upper level analysis this system should be subtropical. I give the system a moderate to high chance of becoming a a named storm over the next 3-5 days.


168 hours Next Friday
The ECMWF 12z shows the system becoming fully tropical with time and looking very much like a strong TS or weak hurricane.
The 12z ECMWF is really aggressive, bringing the low right up to the North Carolina coast as a sub-1000mb low at 120 hours and then takes it SW along the coast over the Gulf Stream and really ramps it up as a fully tropical storm or perhaps even hurricane...

192 hours

Some to keep in mind....we are tracking one center but the some models initialized the area to its southeast.

Look at post 479 for a vertical profile of the area

Until we get a distinct center, models are useless...what i would do is continue along the lines of the global models.
By 240 hours the longwave trough over eastern North America finally picks the system up. It looks like a typical recurving tropical cyclone on the model.

Quoting Levi32:
By 240 hours the longwave trough over eastern North America finally picks the system up. It looks like a typical recurving tropical cyclone on the model.



but very close to making landfall
Quoting Hurricanes101:




I'm thinking hurricane hunting... as I am off TUES,WED,THURS. Its only 100 miles from my home. Any way you slise it.. That's bad.
Quoting Weather456:
Until we get an distinct center, models are useless...what i would do is continue along the lines of the global models.


Like I said, the swirls drifting WSW probably won't last long. The model projections of the low's location probably won't end up being that far off. The 12z CMC MSLP animation actually shows this well as the first apparent low center drifts WSW over Nassau and weakens, while by 36-48 hours a new center is seen developing to the east, back under the area of upper support. The surface low should follow its driver. It can't survive without the upper shortwave right now. Non-tropical lows are not self-sustaining over the tropics.
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
5-6 years ago I had weatherbug, but my antivirus software kept flipping out over it. So I got rid of it.


LOL .... exactly.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


but very close to making landfall


The reality is that that particular track is worse than landfall in just one location, because it makes it right to the coast lashing North Carolina, then travels along the coast bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to that entire stretch of coastline before finally leaving. That's as much of a nuisance as you could want an early season storm to be.
hey guys I am feeling that the SW Carib will have an invest between now and sunday or monday
Quoting Levi32:


The reality is that that particular track is worse than landfall in just one location, because it makes it right to the coast lashing North Carolina, then travels along the coast bringing gusty winds and heavy rain to that entire stretch of coastline before finally leaving. That's as much of a nuisance as you could want an early season storm to be.


very true
1 km IR

WOW, ECMWF suggesting a hurricane in May, if it were the GFS forecasting this then I would not really care but the ECMWF, wow.
981mb on the high-resolution 12z ECMWF model map...216 hours. That's a hurricane.

Quoting Levi32:
981mb on the high-resolution ECMWF model map...192 hours. That's a hurricane.



no kidding...Gulf stream?
Quoting all4hurricanes:

Yay they named it I hope Somalia is prepared Do they get cyclones often?


Pretty rare. Maybe every 10 years or so they get usually something weak. Bandu may get a little stronger yet..


2010 Hurricane Preparation

History teaches that a lack of hurricane awareness and preparation are common threads among all major hurricane disasters. By knowing your vulnerability and what actions you should take, you can reduce the effects of a hurricane disaster.
This microwave reveals a sharply amplified system which convection east of the axis. You can note the arc and the semi-circle of the low pressure center.

Quoting Weather456:


no kidding...Gulf stream?


You bet.
Does anyone know if the oil has gotten into the bay behind Grand Isle?
Quoting Levi32:
984mb on the high-resolution ECMWF model map...192 hours. That's a hurricane.



Yeah moving SW toward NE FL. I think the Euro is becoming more in line with the NAM which shows the low further south. The action won't occur with this system until a ULL merges with the surface low on Sunday or Monday.
Is it spelled Karolina's..?
Below is the 12z ECMWF 240 Hours (at 216 hours it's pretty much the same thing).

980 MB = 90 MPH storm.

WOW!

Quoting nonkchawz7:
Does anyone know if the oil has gotten into the bay behind Grand Isle?


Not at last report I had..Basa Basa,no..

But Elmers Island..a Lot,and Grand Isle proper in the Gulf front,,at the bridge


Oil Fouls Grand Isle Beaches Thursday
Added by John McCusker on May 20, 2010 at 5:50 PM
JOHN MCCUSKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Dying hermit crabs lay covered in oil near Elmer's Island Thursday, May 20, 2010.


Oil Fouls Grand Isle Beaches Thursday
Added by John McCusker on May 20, 2010 at 5:50 PM
JOHN MCCUSKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE A dying hermit crab sit covered in oil on the beach on Elmer's Island Thursday, May 20, 2010.



Oil Fouls Grand Isle Beaches Thursday
Added by John McCusker on May 20, 2010 at 5:50 PM
JOHN MCCUSKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE Oil collects against a boom in Caminada Bay Thursday, May 20, 2010 near Grand Isle.


Oil Fouls Grand Isle Beaches Thursday
Added by John McCusker on May 20, 2010 at 5:50 PM

JOHN MCCUSKER / THE TIMES-PICAYUNE A crew scrapes oil off the beach at Grand Isle Thursday, May 20, 2010. Tar balls and sheen came ashore on the west side of the island.
I think the ECMWF 12z is too robust at the moment. I've seen the ECMWF taking a liking to bombing out systems of the southeastern United States that never came to pass. The area the ECMWF has the 981mb pressure reading has temperatures 25C-26C
Quoting Levi32:
981mb on the high-resolution 12z ECMWF model map...216 hours. That's a hurricane.

On Dvorak that is a 90 MPH system, that is almost a CAT 2.
12z models are all in.....it's a bit of a mess during these first few days, as is expected with this system likely reorganizing a couple times before joining up with the trough-split, which won't occur for another 48-72 hours. Some of the models, such as the GFS, even lose the current low that they are initialized for as they sense the reformations and jumps as the shortwave moves along while the surface circulation is fragile and tugged to the west.

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
WOW, ECMWF suggesting a hurricane in May, if it were the GFS forecasting this then I would not really care but the ECMWF, wow.


being in coastal NE SC, I'm going to start paying attention in earnest!
Quoting Drakoen:
I think the ECMWF 12z is too robust at the moment. I've seen the ECMWF taking a liking to bombing out systems of the southeastern United States that never came to pass. The area the ECMWF has the 981mb pressure reading has temperatures 25C-26C


I wouldn't jump on board to that either, but a Cat 1 isn't an impossible idea if it really sits over the Gulf Stream for 3 days and comes into the coast as an already organized system.
Quoting Levi32:
12z models are all in.....it's a bit of a mess during these first few days as is expected with this system likely reorganizing a couple times before joining up with the trough-split which won't occur for another 48-72 hours. Some of the models, such as the GFS, even lose the current low that they are initialized for as they sense the reformations and jumps as the shortwave moves along while the surface circulation is fragile and tugged to the west.



That is what a was trying to point out....
We have 90L?
Just a look at the EPAC

Quoting cg2916:
We have 90L?
SINCE 8 30 AM THIS MORNING
What are the chances of this system affectig South FLorida as a Tropical Storm or Cat 1 Hurricane? Anyone---
Quoting Weather456:
Just a look at the EPAC

i was just checking some stuff on that area that area may skip invest status and go right to a TCFA
Quoting kuppenskup:
What are the chances of this system affectig South FLorida as a Tropical Storm or Cat 1 Hurricane? Anyone---


low
Quoting Weather456:


That is what a was trying to point out....


Yeah I understand what you meant. I didn't know you were only talking about the small-scale models.
Quoting kuppenskup:
What are the chances of this system affectig South FLorida as a Tropical Storm or Cat 1 Hurricane? Anyone---


Not likely. It wouldn't have enough time to drift that far south.
This is the less toxic dispersant they switching to instead of the corexit they have been using.

100,000 Gals have been sitting,staged in Houston since May 6th...ready to go.

SEA BRAT #4

Report Emergencies



TECHNICAL PRODUCT BULLETIN #D-10
USEPA, OIL PROGRAM CENTER
ORIGINAL LISTING DATE: NOVEMBER 26, 2002
REVISED LISTING DATE:
"SEA BRAT #4"

I. NAME, BRAND, OR TRADEMARK
SEA BRAT #4
Type of Product: Dispersant

II. NAME, ADDRESS, AND TELEPHONE NUMBER OF MANUFACTURER/CONTACT
Alabaster Corp.
6921 Olson Ln.
Pasadena, TX 77505
Phone: (281) 487-5482
(800) 609-2728
Fax: (281) 487-9014
Email: alabastercorp@aol.com
(Mr. Charles A. Sheffield)
Quoting kuppenskup:
What are the chances of this system affectig South FLorida as a Tropical Storm or Cat 1 Hurricane? Anyone---
got a better chance to affect toronto weather it is going to pump up some hot air next week over eastern conus lower lake regions
Another thing the models are forecast for is potential development in the southern Caribbean; the NOGAPS and CMC have remained consistent in development on a cyclone in this region and the GFS has jumped somewhat back on board. These models show an upper level ridge trying to build into the Caribbean from the Pacific which may allow for some development as the subtropical jet stream slowly lifts to the north.
Models show 850mb vorticity advection from the EPAC and Caribbean potentially congealing into a storm.
Hope it doesn't come to far inland in Terrebonne, Yuk won't be cute at all. But its almost impossible to stop.
Quoting kuppenskup:
What are the chances of this system affectig South FLorida as a Tropical Storm or Cat 1 Hurricane? Anyone---


S Fla may get some fringe effects at worst. Some rain and light beach erosion.
Afternoon all! wow.. 90L.. May 21st.

90L is the storm that has been predicted to develop into Sub-Tropical storm Alex.

Lets all wait and see.
Quoting kuppenskup:
What are the chances of this system affectig South FLorida as a Tropical Storm or Cat 1 Hurricane? Anyone---


Is this Phil Ferro from Channel 7?
552. viman
Am I assuming correctly that the reason 90L is not showing up on the NHC Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity graphic is because formation is not expected within 48 hours? If not then why hasn't the NHC picked up on this as yet?
Quoting doabarrelroll:


Is this Phil Ferro from Channel 7?


I thought he was a down caster, unless hes changed it up?
981 mb is not necessarily a hurricane. Tropical storm Hannah made landfall near the SC/NC border with 981 mb, and had a pressure as low as 979 mb as a tropical storm to my east.

In fact, I doubt this would become a hurricane either even if the pressure dropped that low. It is very likely if the storm developed such strength it would have a wide, non-symmetrical wind field, and not be 'tight' like a classic hurricane.

If the storm does get as deep as 980 mb as a tropical/subtropical system I'll be surprised
Quoting ElConando:


I thought he was a down caster, unless hes changed it up?

Do you remember last year when he was on here. IT WAS HILARIOUS!
So this system in the EPAC is supposed to develop in the SW Caribbean? Correct?

Quoting viman:
Am I assuming correctly that the reason 90L is not showing up on the NHC Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity graphic is because formation is not expected within 48 hours? If not then why hasn't the NHC picked up on this as yet?



Its not June 1st yet, they'll issue color when they issue a special tropical cyclone statement. However, imo Hurricane season started today with 90L. wow.. I can't believe I'm already talking about an Invest.. Ida doesn't seem that long ago.
Surface pressures at buoy 41046 did not rise as fast in this current diurnal cycle as its past several cycles, and the current downward portion of the cycle is on pace to bottom out lower than it would have on the the average trend of the last 3 days. This looks to be indicating a more significant pressure fall in this area.



The buoy is located southeast of the current center of 90L, and is reporting southerly winds.

Quoting doabarrelroll:

Do you remember last year when he was on here. IT WAS HILARIOUS!
'

Oh you're talking about on here. LOL I remember good times, good times.
Tx for the feedback. The reason Im asking is because after this system starts to drift SW Im seeing there's a chance the Low doesnt dig that far south and only picks up the storm very moderately and then strong high pressure kicks back in to force the storm on a SW track once more.
I remember the ECMWF spinning up a couple of Typhoon Tip type hurricanes off the SE USA coast back in 2008. I added a 'T' right behind the F in the model name when discussing it.

Quoting Levi32:
Surface pressures at buoy 41046 did not rise as fast in this current diurnal cycle as its past several cycles, and the current downward portion of the cycle is on pace to bottom out lower than it would have on the the average trend of the last 3 days. This looks to be indicating a more significant pressure fall in this area.

The buoy is located southeast of the current center of 90L, and is reporting southerly winds.



So a low pressure center could be forming there?
Quoting doabarrelroll:

Do you remember last year when he was on here. IT WAS HILARIOUS!
I contacted Phil Ferro and he said it wasn't him. I later contacted the author of the blog and he himself said he wasn't Phil Ferro just a fan. So Phil Ferro NEVER was on the blog.
Shear's hammering 90L pretty good,

models are consistent in turning this into Alex and chances are with it.. however I don't see any more than a 45 mph TS or Sub-TS.

Kinda reminds me of Danny at the moment.
Quoting ElConando:


So a low pressure center could be forming there?


I don't know about that yet...but I'll be keeping an eye on it as I expect we'll eventually see reformation to the east or northeast of the current center. This buoy data could possibly indicate a surface trough extending to the southeast of the naked center and amplifying near the buoy.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I contacted Phil Ferro and he said it wasn't him. I later contacted the author of the blog and he himself said he wasn't Phil Ferro just a fan. So Phil Ferro NEVER was on the blog.

The dream is dead.
Quoting Levi32:
Surface pressures at buoy 41046 did not rise as fast in this current diurnal cycle as its past several cycles, and the current downward portion of the cycle is on pace to bottom out lower than it would have on the the average trend of the last 3 days. This looks to be indicating a more significant pressure fall in this area.

The buoy is located southeast of the current center of 90L, and is reporting southerly winds.



This seems to suggest a southern center

Repost

Some to keep in mind....we are tracking one center but the some models initialized the area to its southeast.

Look at post 479 for a vertical profile of the area

Quoting Weather456:
Repost

Some to keep in mind....we are tracking one center but the some models initialized the area to its southeast.

Look at post 479 for a vertical profile of the area



The southeast center is supported by microwave imagery
Visible satellite winds suggest a surface trough extending SE from the current Invest center.



Quoting Drakoen:


The southeast center is supported by microwave imagery


Inflow is also greater there

Old center vs possible new center





Quoting Drakoen:


The southeast center is supported by microwave imagery


Agreed. And if the model initialized this center correctly it will mean that 1.The storm will spend more time over the gulf current 2.timing is all the more critical regarding shear and strength.
Covection really waning now.

Should we UP the Alert Level..to DEFCON 2 ?
Quoting doabarrelroll:


Agreed. And if the model initialized this center correctly it will mean that 1.The storm will spend more time over the gulf current 2.timing is all the more critical regarding shear and strength.


There is no major deviation from the old model forecasts here. The hurricane-based models like the GFDL and HWRF initialized the western center, but the global models were all in agreement on the low center reforming and jumping east a couple of times with the upper shortwave before moving north and becoming more stable and well-defined. What we're observing here was completely expected.
OK if the new southeastern center takes over does it

1. make the storm more likely to stay out to sea

2. just mean it takes longer to move up to the Carolina coast

3. make a more southern track into GA or NE FL more likely than otherwise.
The new models are out nowLink
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
OK if the new southeastern center takes over does it

1. make the storm more likely to stay out to sea

2. just mean it takes longer to move up to the Carolina coast

3. make a more southern track into GA or NE FL more likely than otherwise.


No to all of the above. Nothing has changed here. Again, this was expected and shown by the global models. There was never a forecast for this western center to remain dominant. The low pressure center will follow its driver, which is the upper shortwave. It can't survive without it right now. The western center will die and the eastern one will take over. This has been shown in all the global model forecasts as a gradual ENE movement before the turn to the north and eventually northwest in a couple days.
And of couse more of a SE center would mean a bigger threat to the east coast of FLA in the long term-Correct?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Covection really waning now.



We can expect waning, DMIN + Strong shear is going to do that. We might see a blowup tonight though, thus the cycle begins.
MODIS today



Thanks levi :)
Quoting Drakoen:


A more southern low means a more southern track which is being supported by the NAM. This is a storm we will have to watch in a couple of days. As the NAM is forecasting a solid TS moving due west toward E C FL while the Euro moves this to the FL/GA border as 70 mph system and shunts it out to sea late in the period.
Quoting Levi32:


No to all of the above. Nothing has changed here. Again, this was expected and shown by the global models. There was never a forecast for this western center to remain dominant. The low pressure center will follow its driver, which is the upper shortwave. It can't survive without it right now. The western center will die and the eastern one will take over. This has been shown in all the global model forecasts as a gradual ENE movement before the turn to the north and eventually northwest in a couple days.


Oh, so the movement east shown by all of the models wasn't the center actually moving east, but the center reforming to the east? Perhaps more than once?
Quoting kuppenskup:
And of couse more of a SE center would mean a bigger threat to the east coast of FLA in the long term-Correct?


In a word...No
Quoting CybrTeddy:


We can expect waning, DMIN + Strong shear is going to do that. We might see a blowup tonight though, thus the cycle begins.
Yeah I'm expecting an explosion of convection later tonight.
Quoting Jeff9641:


A more southern low means a more southern track which is being supported by the NAM. This is a storm we will have to watch in a couple of days. As the NAM is forecasting a solid TS moving due west toward E C FL while the Euro moves this to the FL/GA border as 70 mph system and shunts it out to sea late in the period.


That is not right actually, this was forecasted by the models, in the long run it will not have much impact on the eventual track
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah I'm expecting an explosion of convection later tonight.
after sunset and it will be a slow steady build
Quoting kuppenskup:
And of couse more of a SE center would mean a bigger threat to the east coast of FLA in the long term-Correct?


YES! A NE FL/S GA track is what I'm favoring and I'm sticking to this as I have all week.
The light breeze (5 -10 mph) here in the Caicos is now from the NNW and seems to be picking up. The annemometors which are properly calibrated show this on the WUndermap.
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


Oh, so the movement east shown by all of the models wasn't the center actually moving east, but the center reforming to the east? Perhaps more than once?


Perhaps a couple times yes. If you noticed the low remains undefined on the global models during the first 48 hours, and fluctuates between being a closed low and an open trough. This to me indicates reformation and jumping to the east trying to keep up with the upper shortwave moving ENE, while fighting against the low-level flow trying to tug it west.
Looks like a new center is trying to form southeast of the current one. You can see some convection firing up in that area..
The old center is enveploed in strong northeast flow, so that likely cause it to dilute...a new center is appearing further southeast which is supporting Drak and I observations.



Quoting Jeff9641:


YES! A NE FL/S GA track is what I'm favoring and I'm sticking to this as I have all week.


and you are excited because?
DID THE OIL LEAK EXPLODE?

WTF?

I look at the live feed and all of a sudden an eruption takes place O-O
Quoting Hurricanes101:


and you are excited because?


Because this will be nothing more than a squally wind and rain event. This is not August or September. I like watching storms just like people like chasing tornadoes so chill my friend.
INV/XX/90L
MARK
26.8N/71.7W
Quoting Weather456:
The old center is enveploed in strong northeast flow, so that likely cause it to dilute...a new center is appearing further southeast which is supporting Drak and I observations.





Hopefully we can get a clean ASCAT pass tonight
Quoting Hurricanes101:


and you are excited because?

He's always excited.

BTW, I was meaning to ask you, ever been to a NE suburb of Houston called Humble, TX?
Quoting Patrap:
Should we UP the Alert Level..to DEFCON 2 ?


Condition Orange, DEFCON 2, Condition Orange, DEFCON 2.
NO, No, No-Im talking long term here. The low that would pick up this storm and move it into the Atlantic is not going to dig that far south and once high pressure kicks in were going to be talking a SW forecast track. At that point it will be anywhere from the NE coast of Fla to the NC coast. Thereafter we will be talking about a SW movement which takes the storm directly into the East Coast of Fla somewhere between Daytona beach to Vero Beach.
Wow, Invest 90L looks decent and he might even get the chance to become a (sub) tropical storm in the eventual terms before he comes here in the United States.
Quoting atmoaggie:

He's always excited.

BTW, I was meaning to ask you, ever been to a NE suburb of Houston called Humble, TX?


nope
Quoting Weather456:
Just a look at the EPAC



I can't believe thats not a TD right now. It has some very impressive banding and SOME rotation with it. Can this be Agatha???
Quoting kuppenskup:
NO, No, No-Im talking long term here. The trough that would pick up this storm and move it into the Atlantic is not going to dig that far south and once high pressure kicks in were going to be talking a SW forecast track. At that point it will be anywhere from the NE coast of Fla to the NC coast. Thereafter we will be talking about a SW movement which takes the storm directly into the East Coast of Fla somewhere between Daytona beach to Vero Beach.


Again No
Not really expecting much from the system over the next 48 hours aside from trying to find its center. Shear lets up by day 3 allowing organized cyclogenesis.
Quoting atmoaggie:

He's always excited.

BTW, I was meaning to ask you, ever been to a NE suburb of Houston called Humble, TX?


strangely enough one of my friends on a family road trip stopped there on the way to Houston over a decade ago. Being that I was young at the time I giggled with laughter.
Quoting Hurricanes101:


nope

don't go, you aren't missing anything.
High-resolution visible loop is showing a slight increase in independent low-level turning in the area where we are watching for the new low center to form. Buoy observations continue to support a pressure fall in this area and satellite winds show an amplifying surface trough extending from the current center towards this area.



612. xcool
i seeing Tropical Storm come soon.imo
Quoting atmoaggie:

don't go, you aren't missing anything.


lol
Quoting ElConando:


strangely enough one of my friends on a family road trip stopped there about over a decade ago. Being that I was young at the time I giggled with laughter.

Ahh, but do you know how they pronounce it?
Quoting Hurricanes101:


Again No

You remind me of my 3rd grade teacher, all you can say is NO! And why are you saying no may I ask?
Quoting cyclonekid:


I can't believe thats not a TD right now. It has some very impressive banding and SOME rotation with it. Can this be Agatha???


It's a nice convergence zone along the ITCZ but no significant turning yet. Any rotation at all is at the mid-levels and not that impressive.
Quoting Drakoen:


Hopefully we can get a clean ASCAT pass tonight
I'm not too confident in the ASCAT, I'm thinking WINDSAT better.
Quoting atmoaggie:

Ahh, but do you know how they pronounce it?


Its pronounced uhmble of course its Texas, why not. xD
Quoting kuppenskup:

You remind me of my 3rd grade teacher, all you can say is NO! And why are you saying no may I ask?


No synopsis from this guy just NO. Sounds like a little kid.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm not too confident in the ASCAT, I'm thinking WINDSAT better.


I'll tell what I'm not at all confident with, QUIKSCAT. Its been missing everything for months.
Seesh.


XX/XX/XE
MARK
8.5N/95.8W
622. xcool
Model consensus continues to show that 90L whatever it may become will not come far south enough to affect Central Florida before it turns back east

Just doesn't seem very likely
Quoting Weather456:
The old center is enveploed in strong northeast flow, so that likely cause it to dilute...a new center is appearing further southeast which is supporting Drak and I observations.





will it still be called 90l?
Quoting Motttt:


will it still be called 90l?


Yes. It is common for weak systems to relocate their centers. If the old center dies and a new one forms associated with the same disturbance, they will simply re-analyze the position of 90L at the new center location.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I'm not too confident in the ASCAT, I'm thinking WINDSAT better.

A little birdie told me that the scatterometer on OceanSat2 (launched Sept 23) is still being calibrated...

(WTH is the holdup?)
Quoting ElConando:


I'll tell what I'm not at all confident with, QUIKSCAT. Its been missing everything for months.
Seesh.
AND TILL 2015
Quoting ElConando:


I'll tell what I'm not at all confident with, QUIKSCAT. Its been missing everything for months.
Seesh.

(hmm, humor meter didn't go off)

You do know it is d-e-a-d, dead, right?
shear is dropping east of the Bahamas
Quoting Levi32:


Yes. It is common for weak systems to relocate their centers. If the old center dies and a new one forms associated with the same disturbance, they will simply re-analyze the position of 90L at the new center location.


Exactly!
Quoting kuppenskup:


Exactly!


This is JFV its gotta be
Quoting atmoaggie:

(hmm, humor meter didn't go off)

You do know it is d-e-a-d, dead, right?


You need to recalibrate you humor meter ;)
Quoting doabarrelroll:


This is JFV its gotta be


the guy/girl doesn't seem to realize that 4 or 5 people answered his/her question before I did, which is why I answered it with a simple no, because it had already been explained why
Quoting doabarrelroll:


This is JFV its gotta be
LMAO
This blog is starting to remind me what it usually is like in the summertime.
636. xcool
move to SW.hmmm
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LMAO

and the knee slappper award goes to....lol
Quoting Levi32:
This blog is starting to remind me what it usually is like in the summertime.
and the best part is its just the beginning
639. xcool
Sorry for no update yesterday, updates will likely be sporadic the next week or two, as my beautiful wife gave birth to our third child yesterday. Her name, Camille. No she wasn’t named after the infamous cat 5 storm that slammed the Gulf Coast in 1969, but it certainly didn’t decrease the attractiveness of the name for me.

An unsettled weather pattern will develop across the state starting today in the west and across most of the state the next several days as a cold front stalls out across the area and we may even see some moisture intrusion from a developing storm system off the coast which could eventually become a named subtropical storm. It certainly would likely not be a purely tropical system, as we see a 500mb trough drop in and baroclinically enhance this system. But it could acquire enough tropical characteristics to be a subtropical system. It looks like it will head west and possibly do a loop off the Carolina coast. This could lead to some windy and squally weather across the coast early next week and an increased chance of rain and clouds along with cooler temps inland. I will keep an eye on this over the weekend.

Hope everyone has a good weekend.

Allan Huffman
by^
Quoting ElConando:


You need to recalibrate you humor meter ;)

And we should prolly call it by it's formal name, the humorometer...
Quoting Levi32:
This blog is starting to remind me what it usually is like in the summertime.
Yesterday it was so mello and calm and today because we got an invest BOOM! And it's just the beginning.
Quoting ElConando:


I'll tell what I'm not at all confident with, QUIKSCAT. Its been missing everything for months.
Seesh.
LOL.
Quoting Levi32:
This blog is starting to remind me what it usually is like in the summertime.


well it is the summer almost, and people are going insane due to pefect conditions for a really active season, remember it only takes one storm to ruin peoples lives
644. xcool
lol
Current intensity guidance keeps 90L below TS strength

we need to give thses people pot maybe that will calm them down
647. txjac
Congratulation xcool!
Quoting Levi32:
This blog is starting to remind me what it usually is like in the summertime.


We've only just begun to blog. Satellite Pictures and Air Force Recon, We'll find a place where there's room to type. And yet we've just begun. Before the rising sun we smile, so many words to type. We'll start off typing then learn to post. And yet we've just begun. Talking bout storms that have yet to come, watching Satellite pictures along the way. Talking it over, all of us. Prediciting landfalls day by day. Together, Together!
Convection beginning to rise again.

Quoting kuppenskup:


We've only just begun to blog. Satellite Pictures and Air Force Recon, We'll find a place where there's room to type. And yet we've just begun. Before the rising sun we smile, so many words to type. We'll start off typing then learn to post. And yet we've just begun. Talking bout storms that have yet to come, watching Satellite pictures along the way. Talking it over, all of us. Prediciting landfalls day by day. Together, Together!

Yup your are for sure JFV
651. xcool
any one got models data ???
652. xcool
txjac ?? on
Quoting Acemmett90:
we need to give thses people pot maybe that will calm them down

LOL
654. txjac
Third child ....wasnt that you that posted that? I was congratulating you on the arrival of the baby?
655. xcool
Acemmett90:lmao
Quoting Weather456:
Current intensity guidance keeps 90L below TS strength

That's normal on the couple first model runs. When we get to tomorrow is when the intensity models begin to well normalize.
Quoting masonsnana:

LOL
I willmake an order for next month i think will need like 1,000000 grams cuz its gonna be insane jk lol
Quoting Acemmett90:
I willmake an order for next month i think will need like 1,000000 grams cuz its gonna be insane jk lol

OMG thats great!! LMAO
660. xcool
ok thanks
Is Recon planning to go into 90L anytime soon?
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Is Recon planning to go into 90L anytime soon?


No missions scheduled as of yet
Quoting masonsnana:

OMG thats great!! LMAO


well its may 21 and we allready have 90L we may all be in need for a cattle prod to keep thing from getting out of hand
Quoting Acemmett90:


well its may 21 and we allready have 90L we may all be in need for a cattle prod to keep thing from getting out of hand

An early start??!! yeah, we could need the good stuff.....
Quoting masonsnana:

An early start??!! yeah, we could need the good stuff.....

NEW BLOG!!!!!!!!
IMPORTANT NEWS

18z Surface Analysis shows that the low that we were previously following has dissipated and a new low has formed with a pressure of 1012 MB. This new low's location is yet to be released but I'm assuming it is where Weather456, Levi, and all those people were saying.

Quoting xcool:
Sorry for no update yesterday, updates will likely be sporadic the next week or two, as my beautiful wife gave birth to our third child yesterday. Her name, Camille. No she wasn’t named after the infamous cat 5 storm that slammed the Gulf Coast in 1969, but it certainly didn’t decrease the attractiveness of the name for me.

An unsettled weather pattern will develop across the state starting today in the west and across most of the state the next several days as a cold front stalls out across the area and we may even see some moisture intrusion from a developing storm system off the coast which could eventually become a named subtropical storm. It certainly would likely not be a purely tropical system, as we see a 500mb trough drop in and baroclinically enhance this system. But it could acquire enough tropical characteristics to be a subtropical system. It looks like it will head west and possibly do a loop off the Carolina coast. This could lead to some windy and squally weather across the coast early next week and an increased chance of rain and clouds along with cooler temps inland. I will keep an eye on this over the weekend.

Hope everyone has a good weekend.

Allan Huffman
by^
Congratulations Xcool and God Bless.
669. xcool
NEW BLOGGGGGGGGGG
Quoting xcool:
NEW BLOGGGGGGGGGG


Hey X just noticed your avatar. Interesting. Seems like landfalls are around major metro areas, from west to east, Brownsville to Corpus Christi TX, Houston TX, New Orleans, Mobile, Tallahassee FL, Miami, Jacksonville...

This deserves a 'wow'.
Quoting ElConando:


I'll tell what I'm not at all confident with, QUIKSCAT. Its been missing everything for months.
Seesh.
If that new low becomes the dominate feature, the forecast will probably put the low over N,E.Florida late next week. Just a guess, I will have my crow pot ready.:)