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By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:33 PM GMT on July 24, 2007

The July 2007 issue of Scientific American has an article called "Warmer Oceans, Stronger Hurricanes" (referred to as "Warmer Water, SUPER HURRICANES" on the cover). The article is written by Dr. Kevin E. Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and a lead author on the landmark 2007 climate report issued by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The article makes the case that "evidence is mounting that global warming enhances a cyclone's damaging winds and flooding rains." The article presents some solid evidence to substantiate that point of view, which I will share below. However, I was disappointed in the general tone of the piece, which was over-hyped and did not paint an objective view of the current scientific thinking on the global warming/hurricane issue.

The hype
First off, the reader is hit with a dramatic full-page artist's depiction of the global super-hurricane of the future--a massive 5000-mile diameter Caribbean storm the size of North America. The storm's 200-mile eye is wider than the Florida Peninsula! Whoa, I said when looking at the whopper "SciAmicane". No doubt many readers perusing the magazine, trying to decide whether to buy it, had the same reaction and plunked down their $5 to read about this grim threat. OK, lets talk reality here. The largest tropical cyclone on record, Supertyphoon Tip of 1979, had a diameter of 1380 miles--less than one third the size of the SciAmicane. A storm like the SciAmicane cannot physically exist on Earth unless the oceans were to super-heat to about 122°F (50°C). Only an asteroid impact or similar calamity could create such a hypercane. Even the most extreme global warming scenarios do not heat the oceans to 122°, so the SciAmicane is there to sell magazines, not to illustrate what global warming might do to hurricanes.

Figure 1. Comparison of sizes: the Earth, the largest tropical cyclone on record (Supertyphoon Tip of 1979, 1380 miles in diameter), and the recently discovered hurricane-like vortex on Saturn (the Saturnicane). The "SciAmicane" is about the same size as the Saturnicane--5000 miles across.

The article also calls attention to 2004, when "an unprecedented four hurricanes hit Florida, and 10 typhoons made landfall in Japan". I've erroneously made this statement, too, but the truth is that Japan was hit by only four typhoons in 2004. Ten tropical cyclones that were of typhoon strength at some point during their life did hit, yes, but six of these had decayed to tropical storm or tropical depression strength by the time they hit Japan. The article then refers to a "consensus explanation" emerging to explain recent hurricane activity patterns, and "that explanation forebodes meteorological trouble over the long term." I'd say that the issue is still very much under dispute. In fact, the consensus statement on hurricanes and climate change adopted by the World Meteorological Organization in December 2006, in response to the recommendations of a panel of 125 hurricane researchers was thus: "Though there is evidence both for and against the existence of a detectable anthropogenic signal in the tropical cyclone climate record to date, no firm conclusion can be made on this point." Trenberth's article gives a list of four publications to read in the "more to explore" section, but none of these include the recent articles that call into question the strength of the global warming/stronger hurricane connection. (I apologize for not reviewing the many excellent articles that have appeared on this subject of late!)

The good science
There's quite a bit of good science in the article, which is worth reading if one keeps in mind its biases. In particular, I like the discussion of how global warming has affected precipitation and atmospheric water vapor. The 0.6°C (1.0°F) rise in Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) globally since 1970 has increased water vapor in the atmosphere by 4%, thanks to increased evaporation. This in turn has led to an 8% increase in global precipitation. Trenberth makes the point that no given hurricane can be blamed on global warming, but one can say 8% of a given storm's rainfall is due to global warming. There's also a nice discussion about how weaker than normal trade winds over the tropical Atlantic in 2005 caused less evaporational cooling than normal, allowing the ocean to heat to record temperatures. Finally, the conclusion of the article is one I certainly agree with:

We would all be wise to plan for more extreme hurricane threats.

Both theory and computer models predict a 3-5% increase in hurricane winds per degree C increase in tropical SSTs, and there is concern that the actual increase may be much more than this.

Jeff Masters

For a technical treatment of hypercanes, see Dr. Kerry Emanuel's paper, Hypercanes: a possible link in global extinction scenarios.

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The wave is plenty strong enough to develop once it gets to the water--just have to see how it does for a day or two after it moves off though.
2003. Rodek
Thanks Bama... That's the kind of info I was looking for. The water right off of Africa must be a heck of a barrier for a wave.
not saying it wont ever develop...just going to take it a few days over the ocean before it has a chance to get its act together.
im leaning towards bamatracker's side on this one, dont get over excited on this they always look impressive and just completely like a storm when over Africa but then they have to completely switch what they are and they never look the same...
not sure if im just making it up, but they have to transition from a land energy based system to a water energy based system

this link shows wind shear extremely high right off the coast.

LOL, Benerica, that's just a wild hunch, and not substantiated. Don't give it much credence!

ALSO, the wave that's already off the African coast is better in a few ways.

1. Already more convection
2. QScat already showing some rotation
3. Moisture plentiful and expanding further west because of help from previous waves.
4. Shear is a bit high, but tendency is relaxing

805 TWD:
Tropical wave will be introduced along 27w S of 17n moving W
about 15 kt. There are several indications of this wave. 1...a
weak signal is noted in the dakar sounding between 00z and 12z
on the 23rd. 2...a signal is noted in the sal sounding between
12z on the 24th and 00z on the 25th mainly in 850-900 mb level.
3...a 1946z Quikscat pass shows a weak circulation centered W of
the cape verdes near 13n27w. Scattered moderate convection is
from 12n-15n between 25w-28w.
2009. RL3AO
The wave over Africa may be dead by the time it hits the ocean.
if it keeps it identity till about 45-60W...it has a shot. Diffently wont hurt to watch it between times though....well im off to sleep...have a great night!!
2011. Rodek
Thanks TropicalMan07. I will lurk as much as possible over the next few days in order to watch this one. My goal is to learn a little and this wave may be a good teacher.
lol mlc i was about to light candles in your name if that actually happened and call my cousin over in texas to get out while she still can!
wind shear map

wind shear is low for that wave about 1o to 15kt

i dont ues the cimss wind shear map be come it nevere tells you what you need to no her the map i like uesing

2017. RL3AO
TD298, I have a feeling that SSTs are not in the 60s and 70s in the GOM.
ummm MARCH 06
LOL her the right one

2022. RL3AO
Here are the current SSTs:

Warm enough to support a SciAmicane:

lol michael
that wave most have a T # of 2.5 or 3.0 right now buy looking at this

Pardon me, Bama is right, shear is higher there, especially se of the wave, but tendency does relax further west. (my bad!)
Posted By: TropicalMan07 at 3:48 AM GMT on July 26, 2007.


You have to load images onto an image hosting site befoe posting them... otherwise, you fool other people's computers into trying to find a nonexistant file (that is a local path)...
Also, forgot to mention that over half of the Itcz in the Atlantic has been above 10n, some near Africa as high as 15n. Hasn't been that high all season that I can remember.
Tropic'man...TAZ is a "favorite" hear on the blog and a good poster. We affectionately call it "Taz Speake"...so go easy, sometimes he just types too fast.

TAZ, you're too quick for us...lol. Hey, man, which one of these waves are gonna spin up first?
Bad news, tropicaldude. It not only washes out SAL, but allows more disturbances to develop, as well as tropical waves to ride along its axis. If a vigorous disturbance (like the one over Africa) can break free of the ITCZ, development can occur.
Tropicdude, it's my understanding that when the Itcz comes up in latitude, it becomes easier for coriolis to take place with developing storms. JMHO

Good point, too, Kori...more latitude from the moisture in the Itcz would weaken the SAL. I need to post that one on my blog, thanks!
Yeah that too mlc, thanks for clearing that up.
But if the Bermuda High has a gaping hole in it like it did last year, will it matter much that the SAL will be missing this year?

A little bit. Ernesto and Chris didn't develop immediately because of strong SAL. If SAL is non-existant when a wave like that comes this year, immediate development may occur, rather than when the wave is in the central Carribean or eastern Carribean.

Cape Verde storms have the greatest chance to recurve though, but please do not think that it means everyone of them will, nor that 2007 will be like 2006; the way Dr. Masters talked, 2007 will be unique in that both troughs and ridges will be present throughout the year, as opposed to purely a trough or ridge.
wave will die just like all the rest this time tomorrow night it will exit coast of africa then poof there it is gone
I see, we are watching something on Africa. Umm...still way too far away to talk about development from a wave thats still on Africa. LOL...though that's what a weather blog is for. :)

Anyways, come check out my blog, about the two areas of interest in the Atlantic today.
You guys give up on the BOC thingy? I think it will reform up in a short bit. Probably to the S.

There is high pressure everywhere. The Bermuda high took over the Atlantic.
thanks TropicalMan07
Yall want to hear something scary?

Take this with a graint of salt; doesn't mean it will happen, so please no panicing or no trolling (again, I ask please). It MIGHT happen though, and if this wave holds up, it could be a TD before Sunday.

This is for the wave that spawned Alberto in 2000 (which became one of the longest-lasting storms in the Atlantic basin):

A well-formed tropical wave was identified over central Africa based on satellite imagery on 30 July. The wave moved steadily westward and moved off the African coast on 3 August. Once over the open Atlantic Ocean, the wave quickly developed and became Tropical Depression Three later that day.

And this is for the wave that spawned Alex in 1998:

On July 26, a tropical wave moved westward off the coast of Africa. The wave, already well organized, soon encountered favorable elements for development. On the 27th, Tropical Depression One formed while 300 n mi south-southwest of Cape Verde.

That's what this wave reminds me of... especially the former.
Kori, again, agree with you. Obviously, the CV storms have a better chance to curve because they start out further east depending on the conditions you mentioned.

Also, coriolis itself, automatically moves a developing storm 2 degrees north when it breaks from the Itcz...(read that somewhere, lol)!
wave will die just like all the rest this time tomorrow night it will exit coast of africa then poof there it is gone

I hope that you know you can't control the weather by your words. I'm not trying to be mean, but it's true.

Sounds like you've lost faith in this hurricane season already. Nah man, it'll get active, just wait! I can't control weather either, but that's a fact that it'll get active.
: moonlightcowboy this one will it has a vary good ch of be comeing 98L right off the top

No, JFLORIDA...I think most of us are a bit more interested on the waves off of Africa and our CATL wave. Though, I think our BOC may escape the shear and develop...but nobody seems to be thinking that. Maybe, cause the blob doesn't have a sfc low...?
Very nicely said, T'man...and the same to you! Have a good sleep!
k m whats ur general location
There are a few areas of lower pressure in the area.

The Africa stuff I don't like to watch so early because when its strong it usually seems to turn more northerly and scare the fishes. But with the high so far out, who knows.
k m whats ur general location

My location? What do you mean? Where I live? How does this have any relevance to the tropical wave over Africa?
EXCELLENT, historical facts, Kori...wtg! I'm like you, think so, too.

I've a question. Read the 805TWD, then look at the QS at the lat/lon it mentions. My interpretation is that the wave mentioned is obviously already in the water. Yet, the latest sfc map doesn't indicate a wave there. Other opinions?

TAZ...I take you post to mean the huge blog still over Africa is the one you think will develop once it hits the Atlantic. Right? Or are you talking about this one that I think the 805TWD is talking about?
People people, please stop thinking that because this year isnt a 2005, which was very active...and un heard of...that this season is dead many of you may think that this season is already below normal well actually we are above normal with the 2 systems that have formed already....2005 hypnotized many people and therefore that year has many of you thinking we should of had 6-7 named storms by now well that isnt the case...we are only suppose to have between 1-3 storms by now...so we are right on track of waht a normal to above normal season s suppose to be like...do not put your foot up and sit back in that reliner thinking oh..nothigns going to go on this year because thats not the case...if anything this year will turn out to be above normal...so be ready prepare and be safe for an active august, september and october...!


*crowns you*

I love tracking storms, I like fish storms because they give you something to track at no extra risk!

I agree. I love fish storms. Mariners can avoid them most likely, and they aren't really a threat to land masses and when they do hit, they usually are fairly weak (although Gordon's remnants in 2006 were not weak; it brought 100 mph wind gusts in some parts of Spain as an extratropical system, and it certainly wasn't weak when it hit the Azores as a strong Category 1 hurricane).
KM do you live the Cape Verdes??? - just kidding.

I like fish storms also -- except when they are so far out you cant see them on radar and the Sat pics are not updated quickly and the buoys are few and far between.
Good point, T'man. The train is beginning to pull out of the station...folks will see soon enough.
2067. LSU
My location? What do you mean? Where I live?

No, he was asking what you eat for breakfast.
hey k m no ill will intented just wondering if u were in carb. islands (leewards) fla gom just general location not where u live
My interpretation is that the wave mentioned is obviously already in the water. Yet, the latest sfc map doesn't indicate a wave there. Other opinions?

I wondered this too...

EXCELLENT, historical facts, Kori...wtg! I'm like you, think so, too.

What is excellent historical facts? My Alberto and Alex description things?
Posted By: KEEPEROFTHEGATE at 4:04 AM GMT on July 26, 2007.
wave will die just like all the rest this time tomorrow night it will exit coast of africa then poof there it is gone

...lol, Keeper. It may, may not...eventually one of them is gonna have a little glue in it!

Yep, Kori, you called those facts up quickly for that discussion. Impressive.
Posted By: tropicaldude298 at 9:19 PM PDT on July 25, 2007.

Actually 2006 Gordon did make landfall as a 100 mph Category 2 hurricane, so everyone should stop complaining that 2006 had no hurricane landfalls.

huh? no it did not 2006 did not have any US hurricane land fall at all Gordon stay a fish storm
hey k m no ill will intented just wondering if u were in carb. islands (leewards) fla gom just general location not where u live

If you must know, I live in southeast Louisiana. I've been through numerous tropical cyclones since I've been here.

No, he was asking what you eat for breakfast.

Can't say I didn't deserve that sarcastic response after how mean I was earlier to eye and everyone else. I apologized for that, but it backfired on me now! >_>
2079. LSU
Heh, I was just playing with you.

I live in New Orleans, btw.
I sure would like someone to interpret the 805TWD...and tell me where/when they are talking about exactly!
2084. LSU
I had evacuated to Baton Rouge for it, so I only experienced a calmed down version of it. And my house is Uptown, so no flooding.
Good night, tropicalman.

huh? no it did not 2006 did not have any US hurricane land fall at all Gordon stay a fish storm

A hurricane is a hurricane... Although not terribly bad (I don't mind anything below Cat 3 intensity), a hurricane is a hurricane, no matter the category. Tell the people in the Azores Gordon was a fish storm and they'll tell you real quick like it was probably a bad storm for them. And the 100 mph wind gusts in Spain that Gordon's extratropical remnants brought are impressive.
i just thougt u were out there in the leewards thats all maybe it someone else and just in case ur wondering iam in newfoundland way up here on the most eastly point in N.A.
Wow, Keeper...does that make you a Viking? lol, jfk!

Glad you watch the blog like you do. Like your posts!
Nice link, tropicalman... To an error! >_>

Even if Gordon didn't make landfall, it came close enough that the Azores were greatly effected by it, and Europe for that matter. Not enough to merit extreme damage or retirement, but nonetheless, still a potent storm.
Never mind...latest sfc map apparently updated. We DO have a New wave just sw of the CV islands. Wasn't on the sfc map a lil earlier, I know...am I getting cross-eyed again? lol
Agreed. Also Florence did some minor damage to Bermuda. Nothing like Fabian though.

I enjoyed watching Jim Cantore's coverage of Hurricane Florence in 2006, actually. I always do like his coverage. Florence was actually pretty impressive (at least to me) bringing 100 mph wind gusts to western Bermuda even though it was only a Category 1.
2102. hcubed
"Posted By: TropicalMan07 at 8:42 PM CDT on July 25, 2007.

- and to answer that persons question i use bold on all of my post's because then i dont feel like im being ignored."

I'm sorry, did someone just say something?

later all got to sleep atlantic appears to be asleep so i check tomorrow g night all
Have a good sleep, Keeper!
00z control run of GFS has hurricane off of East Coast...
BOC blob being blasted by 20-30 kts upper shear.

Best part being on PST time, Still up while things are happinin out there...
Worst part being on PST...Your all asleep...

Till tommorow, have a good one and keep one eye open
lol...don't Panic...understand!
hello all
Hey moonlight,
Welcome to the nightshift..
Seems the wave in the catl has settled down some...but the next one commin off the Af coast about this time tommorow is a beeeeut...
sorry forgot link
yeah the next wave looks pretty intense.
Yeah, Panic; but looking at the latest sfc map, it's coming off "under" the itcz which is incredibly higher than it's been so far this season. Not sure what that means for development, but definitely different from what we've been seeing so far.
Lot of WV in front, little dust, shear down next while, good temps...she holds up to get off the coast this will be the one to watch
Reminds me of that old Toto song..
More CV and SAL updated info here.
The image http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/gparm/xyrfpr.gif cannot be displayed, because it contains errors.

CATL getting higher real time marks for development.
so does the gulf - up even
Tropical weather discussion
NWS TPC/National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 am EDT Thu Jul 26 2007

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

...Tropical waves...
tropical wave is along 28w S of 18n moving W 10-15 kt. Low
amplitude low level inverted-v signature is observed covering
the area from 23w-31w. Small clusters of scattered moderate/
isolated strong convection are embedded within the ITCZ from
12n-15w between 25w-30w.

Tropical wave is along 42w S of 15n moving W near 20 kt. Very
low amplitude
low level inverted-v signature is observed
covering the area from 39w-45w. Small clusters of scattered
moderate/isolated strong convection are within 60 nm of line
from 12n42w to 11n46w.

Tropical wave is along 65w/66w S of 15n moving W near 25 kt.
Wave has weakened over the past 24 hours as it entered the
Caribbean with shallow low level inverted-v signature covering
the area from 65w-72w. No associated deep convection with
isolated showers from 13n-15n between 66w-71w.

Tropical wave is along 90w S of 25n moving W 15-20 kt. Any
satellite signature is masked by a large upper high centered
over the Yucatan Channel. Any convection associated with this
wave is inland over Central America/Mexico and in the E Pacific

JFl...but, it looks like the GOM is getting 20-30 kt upper shear...hard for anything to develop like that. JMHO
Yeah, you could be right. TCHP is unreal now, more than even 2005. Anything developing/entering there is gonna be like throwing gas on a fire! Trouble!
but yea this particular storm doesn't seem to be doing anything. There are more waves moving into the gulf as the pattern remains through.
I keep expecting to see a sfc low develop off the SA coast, maybe off Venezuela; then, trek through the Carib and GOM.
Its more odd that nothing is happening (and in a way more disturbing) I think. Tropical Cyclones consume stored heat energy.

I was thinking earlier how much better it is to have many predictable bad events as opposed to one nasty big surprise.
Yeah, lots of things to keep up with...but, I think we're still going to get a named storm before month's end.
Sorry for delay, had to keep watching and slowing down things...but looking at all the Af sats, IMO the next wave will push a liitle further N if it makes it. Hard to tell with so little info and to much time between sat updates. When is the NHC goin to put a little more instrements where things start cookin.
tropicaldude298, ask and you shal recieve...but you have to copy and paste the links...sorry bout that
Tropicdude, go here for updated CV and SAL info with current maps, etc...
Ahhh moonlight...see your still on the job.LOL
only 11:35 here and seems we have the room to ourselves.
I have to stop watching the weather...like watin for a kettle to boil.
NP, where are you in the PTZ?
Read the artical you posted. Especialy liked the quote "This is a classic example of every cloud having a silver lining,"
Love em or hate em...We wouldn't be here but for the forces we seek to understand.
moonlight, Nah just stuck here in Vancouver BC....Where not much weatherwise happens..lol
2135. RL3AO
NEW INVEST!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

...in the southern hemisphere
RL3, that was sneaky!!!

NP, I hear you have great beaches! Sounds like a fun place. Gets cold, too, heh?
BC is a wonderful place to be "stuck" in. I miss the North West!
RL3AO....Got a link?
It realy doesnt matter where the systems are weather is weather.
2139. RL3AO
here ya go Panic

An invest in the WPac, 2 in the SHem and a storm in the EPac.
Cant say much about the rotten weather here but can say that if you have ever been.....you get use to it.
Only claim to something close to a H is the Columbus Day storm back in the 60's. Still remember my dad try'n to take down the TV antenna from the roof.
Extratropical...but oh boy they can be just as bad....
2142. RL3AO
Heres to a season similar to the 1982 season!
2143. msphar
NEXT 48 HOURS." sweet
2144. JLPR
Well if there is someone here it seems that everything in the atlantic had disipated the only thing left is the hope of one of this areas reviving or the african wave that should come out tomorrow
good night
Heres to a season similar to the 1982 season!

I hope you aren't comparing 2007 to 1982...
2146. RL3AO

I hope you aren't comparing 2007 to 1982...

I'm saying I wouldn't mind a season like 1982 not that this will be like 1982.
Oh, I see... Well, in any case, it's unlikely that 2007 will be 1982. Very unlikely.
i agree jp what you said yesterday about the middle of aug is right on 1998 pattern
Who funds this blog and who pays Dr. Masters salary?
it seems everyone went to bed right as this little blob in the GOM is starting to blowup big time around the little spin....very interesting convection...will check back in later.
Hopefully the trofiness stays because it will keep all systems out to sea!
Everything in motion out there. The interesting little clouds in the cv area is poofed. Yet the tw seems alittle tighter. The up and down of tropical weather. Have a nice day.


GFS beginning to pick up on some tropical activity again.
Morning all...

Watchingnva - convection started to refire around 0845 UTC this morning and appears to be in step with diurnal maxima - wait until later this morning to see if anything develops. Shear has relaxed since yesterday evening (that's relative - it's still 20kts+). The blob that exited the YP last night donated it's moisture overnight - that's what helped the convection this morning. But, there is ample water vapor in the area. In last night's discussion, I recall reading over 2.0" of precipitable water in the air at the higher levels...
If Dr Masters is right with a high moving in which is normal for mid aug. the system might be more south the than the gfs forecast. Miami and Keys.
Ike/Pat - my "little buddy" was right on cue at 5:45 this morning, but decided she wanted to take her time with the morning routine...

Our "little buddy" looks to be refiring again. But, I can't say I'd agree with a general NW motion, based on relative motion of moisture and clouds in the western GOM.

Looks like nothing more than a rain event, if it makes it to the coast...
agree leftovers the gfs always seems to have a ne bias i could give you a million examples of past systems its done this with. in long range that is. ivan katrina jeanne and frances are just a few i remember.
2160. dsauder
It was refreshing to read your "come clean" on the hyper-cane issue, Dr. Masters. It is very discouraging when repected science magazines stoop to cheap sensationalism. There is enough of that nonsense to be found at the super market check-out counters.

I wouldn't call it "healthy" - just refiring at this point. If it were "healthy" it would have developed the low level spin from last night into something more pronounced. As it is, it's just convection.

Sorry if I burst your bubble - there's really nothing there right now but a bunch of rain...
Ok rainy - but with better convection than we've seen almost all year.
I agree as well with the NE bias on the GFS.

I really think that Dr.Masters should devote another blog to the rain in Texas. It's been tropics tropics tropics lately. Either the updates or the NHC fiasco.

If there's anything that's coming out of this disturbance it's tons of more flooding rains for Texas, which is really one of the big weather headlines this summer and deserves a bit more mention, in my opinion.

Who knows, maybe Dr.Masters is going to mention it today, if he updates.
Timing is everything, JP

What's going on?
Ok kiddies i didn't say a tropical storm was there, I said a blob looked healthy considering it completely disappeared last night -- "nothing" implies nothing, which is hardly the case at all levels in the GOM now.
Yes - but bear in mind that things really don't normally get hopping until mid-August.

Don't get me wrong - this may still develop into a TS. However, I don't think it's going to get much further along than that. The shear is marginal (15 - 20 kts).

However, I do think that it's going NE, not N or NW. I'm not certain what posessed the TPC to say NW - winds at all levels are headed N in that area. We'll have to wait and see on that...
2170. IKE
And the NHC doesn't say...the western GOM on their latest update..........

"Shower and thunderstorm activity has become less organized in
association with a trough of low pressure over the central Gulf of

Convection now firing back up...shear around 20 knots....probably won't do much...plenty of rain.

How did the disturbance go from the western gulf to the central when it was moving NW???
442 AM CDT THU JUL 26 2007


2174. IKE
The shear in the eastern Atlantic is 20-30 knots.
LOL Ike - if two models agree, then it's a consensus - does that apply to humans as well?
Wow - they increased the PWAT by almost .5 inch in 12 hours - pretty amazing...
2177. IKE
Posted By: MrNiceville at 6:58 AM CDT on July 26, 2007.
LOL Ike - if two models agree, then it's a consensus - does that apply to humans as well?

I guess so...I see the wave on the NWS fronts on the GOM visible loop...it's almost on the Mexican/south Texas coast.
Blob in SW Gulf is starting to Refire.
Will need Close Watching Today. Seems To Be
Moving a bit more Easterly or are my eyes Failing me?


It's a trick on the eyes.

The wave is encountering 20kts of shear that are blowing the thunderstorm tops towards the central gulf. If the shear was easterly, or southeasterly it'd look like this thing is ready to hit Texas, which it is...

I wish I had mine on...
along with a crystal ball...
yes but if you watch the last 2 IR frames
you see an explosion of convection in just
the last couple of hours. Kinda early in the day
to be seeing this. Still kinda interesting.
ROFL JP - and at work no less! They really keep you busy there, don't they?!?!

Ike - I think this is now not influenced by the wave - otherwise, it would have moved toward the TX/MX coast overnight. Now, it's at the mercy of the steering currents - winds at all levels are generally to the north (I'd say northerly, but I can't remember if that means from or to the north).

I'm starting to buy the solution of the GFS developing a tropical storm. It has shown it in 3 of the last 4 runs and it will probably show it some more.
You could make a fortune selling "BlobWatching"
Glasses on here ...lol
2190. IKE
The system in the GOM was never going to amount to much...no model had it deepening much other then the NAM..which only went down to 1008mb's with it. ...and we all know how the NAM is.

Like JP said...the NAM is good at showing moisture ...and where it might generate....beyond that, their not very good.

This is more of a flooding type rain event..something Texas doesn't need.
The 48 hour NAM moves the Blob to The NE.
with Possible Low Formation.

Not That I am Buying into This Just Yet
but some of the other models dont even
recognize this system.


Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 12:18 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.

we are in the diurnal phase in which convection is expected to increase to max, this is not unusual by any means

Wow - pretty much what I said about an hour ago. Validation - now I am someone (where's that new phonebook??)...

How far S does the GFS put the landfall? Far enough south to cross the peninsula into the GOM (hope not)...
2197. IKE
No...the Carolinas in 15 to 16 days...it'll keep changing....
yes JP a slow movement more to the east or even
northeast might buy it some addtional time to
blow up.
2199. IKE
I bet Dr. Masters has a new blog today, talking about the Texas moisture...and the increase in activity with the models.

Remember...it only takes 1. If there's 18 storms(like I predicted), or 10.
Oh, heck - 15/16 days????

Forecasting that track is like trying to find my beer on the beach on the 4th of July - impossible to do!

Ike - that's not like you - come clean - no obtuse hints at something...
No signs of the pattern changeing in the near future...Trough looks to be in place of the eastcoast of the united states.

417 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007


Very True IKE. One "Andrew" or "Ivan" and all The
Past Quietness Goes out The Window Quick.

2205. IKE
Posted By: MrNiceville at 7:39 AM CDT on July 26, 2007.
Ike - that's not like you - come clean - no obtuse hints at something...

I can't see the GOM going 2 years in a row without a storm.

Florida can't afford another one...actually, the entire GOM can't.
2206. IKE
Posted By: hurricane23 at 7:41 AM CDT on July 26, 2007.
No signs of the pattern changeing in the near future...Trof looks to be in place.

Which brings above normal rain to the lower SE...then, by the end of next week the GFS keeps hinting at a possible low developing on that trough...possibly in the NE GOM...then shoots it NE.
2208. GetReal
The new concentrated area of convection in the W. central GOM appears to be just underneath an UL high. The unfavorable windshear is now to the west and north of this area. I see an expanding area of deep convection, and the tops NOT being blown off as they were yesterday. IMO.
Posted By: IKE at 12:42 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.
I can't see the GOM going 2 years in a row without a storm.

I can, but it's only in my dreams. I still think that everyone lied to me in the panhandle when they told me in '94 that this area went without a major landfall for the previous 60+ years...

I just paid my storage unit rental through December yesterday. Forgot to do it last month and think I might need access to my "shutters" that I built in 97 again this season (no room in the garage to store them - I have kids). Was kinda nice not to have to pull them out last year...
2211. guygee
Morning all, just checking in, got some chores to do around the homestead today and I promised myself I wouldn't blog away my day like yesterday.

Regarding the West GOM disturbance noticed that NHC shaded things a little in the early morning TWO: "SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS."

Yesterday I thought that the GOM blob would either get mostly sheared eastward or become vertically decoupled, but after fizzling late last night moderate-strong convection is developing more due north of its position yesterday. Add to that the upper-level divergence east of the small ULL that formed yesterday near the Big Bend area of TX, and the evident slow filling of the Great Lakes ULL, and that may be real trouble for rain-soaked TX. Hopefully most of the moisture does get sheared E-NE before approaching TX and LA.

A lot of discussion on what constitutes a troll on this blog. I don't think there is anything wrong with holding a strong opinion, just as long as you can back it up with some reasoning and data. If somebody comes up with a "better" reasoning or data a reasonable person will admit their error and move on. Most of us here are not really qualified to hold "strong opinions" anyways, but it can make the blog interesting. For people that hold strong and unreasonable opinions in the face of contradicting evidence best to ignore them. For me, true trollish behavior is the use of personal attacks and ad hominem arguments. A common tactic on this blog is to quote somebody and append it with a "LOL". Weak and trollish behavior, as such a response is a personal attack. Better to answer with reason and facts or ignore.

Just my two pennies.

I suspect Dr. Master's will post a new blog soon today, as this one is getting huge!


2212. IKE
Posted By: MrNiceville at 7:48 AM CDT on July 26, 2007.
Posted By: IKE at 12:42 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.
I can't see the GOM going 2 years in a row without a storm.

I can, but it's only in my dreams. I still think that everyone lied to me in the panhandle when they told me in '94 that this area went without a major landfall for the previous 60+ years...

When I was a kid I lived in a beach cottage in south Walton county. My grand folks owned what is now Seascape. This was in the 70's...I don't remember hardly any storms coming around. Eloise and maybe a TS or 2 and that's about it.
2213. IKE
The problem with consistent troughs in the east...what if a storm is in the western Caribbean when one comes down...it'll head into the GOM with this pattern.

So if we PREFIX comments with LOL, then it's acceptable, civil behavior, but if we suffix them, it's troll-ish. Man - too many rules for me - I can't even remember when e comes before i half the time... (I would insert LOL, but I'm afraid I'd grow a wart on my nose...)
Very Very Interesting loop. watch the explosion of Very Deep convection in just the last hour.
There was a glorious full double rainbow just SW of Houston this a.m. A small reward before we oversaturate again.
2218. guygee
Posted By: MrNiceville at 12:54 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.

So if we PREFIX comments with LOL, then it's acceptable, civil behavior, but if we suffix them, it's troll-ish. Man - too many rules for me - I can't even remember when e comes before i half the time... (I would insert LOL, but I'm afraid I'd grow a wart on my nose...)

My opinion, MrNiceville, is if you quote me and respond with LOL, without offering any countering evidence or reasoning, then yes, you are a troll. It is not my rule, it is a fallacious argument under the Rules of Informal Logic. It is an Ad Hominem attack. Look it up if you don't know what that means.
The 06Z has a Hugo like system making landfall in the carolinas....The chances of this actually takeing place are very low as this is very long range but an important thing to take from the GFS is that the time of the year is fast approaching.

2220. IKE
What a blowup of convection in the western/central GOM.
2221. GetReal
I agree the W. GOM is exploding this morning with deep and expanding convection. The upper level conditions also this morning do not appear to be as hostile as the NHC alluded to this morning's Trop Outlook. There does appear to be an UL high over this BLOB.
It is pretty amazing Adrian how this pattern has held for months. Looks like another round of Severe weather for North Florida this weekend. Feels like Spring again.
Got a bet with a buddy,

Is the convection explosion in the GOM anything BUT a rain event?
Great - so you're saying that the general pattern is conducive to drawing storms into the GOM? Wouldn't it depend on the location of the AB high?
Right now the SW Gulf Blob Looks More Impressive
than Barry Did.
yea 03 looks like a wet weekened in miami with 70-80 of rain friday through almost sunday.
One thing we have been lucky with this early part of the season is that we havent had storms form along the Gulf Coast with this trough. Its been so strong that Upper Level winds have been unfavorable.
"a Hugo Like System" ... lol

The Hurricane Season has Officially Begun!!!
Posted By: RL3AO at 2:16 AM CDT on July 26, 2007.

Heres to a season similar to the 1982 season!

Looks like somebody needs to do some serious research... Also, 1982 had one of the strongest El Ninos ever recorded... I don't see any sign of one this year...

Nice cold water... -2C anomalies... the models look to be correct on a huge drop into August - it is also now in the right place.
2234. IKE
Posted By: SevereStorm at 8:00 AM CDT on July 26, 2007.
Posted By: MrNiceville at 7:39 AM CDT on July 26, 2007.
Ike - that's not like you - come clean - no obtuse hints at something...

I can't see the GOM going 2 years in a row without a storm.

Florida can't afford another one...actually, the entire GOM can't.

The GOM had a storm last year

I should have said hurricane.
The trough is supposed to amplify into the weekend.

It's all cool - I was just joking...

As to citations, you forgot Roberts Rules of Order. Us older folks just rely on common sense and the golden rule. Of course, having a beer helps, too.

But your point is well taken - we try to be civil here. It just becomes difficult when a blogger insists on an opinion in ALL CAPS repeatedly...
If you look real close, we will need the visible loop to really see it, but if you look real close at the GOM Sat those t-storms have blown up due to convergence. You can see the convergence line move north and then there is the blowup of storms. Thats all it is, just like yesterday.
Posted By: jphurricane2006 at 1:02 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.

if there is troughiness in the east that high will be eroded and leave a weakness in the NE Gulf

Sorry - we know that all too well, here. I should have been clearer...
2239. Drakoen
morning everyone. The GFS still forecasting development?
Hey All.....Texas does not need the rain, but, the Panhandle/Big Bend needs the rain so whatever happens (rain event-weak low) [notice I did not say TD or TS], I hope it does move NE...
03 - for those of us who are Wx amateurs, what's a line of convergence?
Lets keep an eye on the wave about to exit africa as the GFS is picking up on it and really cranking it for the first time this year.As we move into august next week our chances for development continues to go up.

Lets see if it can maintains its thunderstorm activity once it moves of the african coast.
2243. Drakoen
yea hurricane23 thats the problem when its gets on water it they loose some of the convection.
2244. IKE
Rain headed for New Orleans....

2245. guygee
MrNiceville- Thanks for clarifying. Civility seems to be an ancient art these days, it is really a step beyond logical rules and would make the blog much more enjoyable if everyone practiced it. I am afraid sometimes I have lost the art and come off stone cold, but that is not my intent.

LOL, I guess I can be a bit humor-impaired at times too. I wouldn't presume to make up personal rules for this blog, but Roberts Rules of Order is probably a step above the simple rules of logic in helping people get along.

BBL, have a good one!
Posted By: Drakoen at 09:09 EDT le 26 juillet 2007.

morning everyone. The GFS still forecasting development?

LOL look up in the blog...I posted a pic for some entertainment.
2247. Drakoen
I see. I would think because of the time frame that it would be associated with the wave coming of Africa. Its fairly large in size. we will see.
2248. ryang
Guys, the next wave about to exit, is a real threat.
2250. ryang
The GFS model forecasts that this wave will be a strong tropical cyclone near 15 North, 48 West by next Thursday.
2251. Drakoen
yea ryang its very large and it probably what the GFS is picking up on.
2252. GetReal
Posted By: weatherguy03 at 1:07 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.

those t-storms have blown up due to convergence. You can see the convergence line move north and then there is the blowup of storms. Thats all it is, just like yesterday.

Bob I know that I may regret this, and I'm sure you will take me out to the WU wood shed, but here it goes... Bob so what you are saying is that it is impossible, or highly unlikely, for a low pressure area to spinup out of a convergence zone?
2254. Drakoen
According to the GFS we should see some action on Saturday.
an additional frame can be seen on the loop 12Z (that you cant see one the single image 6Z)

probably will be fixed before any1 can confirm

GR. It would be very hard GR, epsecially the way the Upper Level winds are right now. And something I mentioned yesterday with this area. Its moving at a good clip to the NNW, while the trough isnt going anywhere. Its in a no win situation.
2258. Drakoen
2259. GetReal
OK thanks for the clarification (lesson) Bob...
03 - for those of us who are Wx amateurs, what's a line of convergence?

Winds of opposite directions conveging to produce T-storms. SW winds ahead of that trough, winds from the South coming out of S to SE. This will cause lift and produce T-storms, especially over the warm GOM.
2261. ryang
It looks healthy and fairly strong/large...

Hey I dont take you to the woodshed GR!..LOL
2263. ryang
SAL is fairly weak and moving west, and the wave isn't on water yet.
2264. Drakoen
we have to keep track of it from the EUMETSAT for now.
It is better to use the image from SSD, which goes further east:

2267. Drakoen
lol jp.
whats with the italics?
2270. amd
It seems that the slow start to the hurricane season as caused some to once again question the notion of global warming.

Tempest In A Teapot


Posted 7/25/2007

Global Warming: A private firm's downgrade of its hurricane forecast raises an obvious question: If scientists can't get near-future projections in a limited area right, how can they predict the climate decades from now?

Related Topics: Global Warming

A reasonable response is: They can't. But the global warming climate of fear did not blow in on the soft breezes of reason, but by the storm winds of emotion.

Forecaster WSI Corp. said Tuesday that the season ending Nov. 30 will bring 14 named storms, six of which will grow into hurricanes, three of them major. WSI's initial forecast was for 15 named storms, eight hurricanes and four majors.

Why the change? "Because," said WSI forecaster Todd Crawford, "ocean temperatures have not yet rebounded from the significant drop in late spring."

Could it be that the 2007 hurricane season is turning out to be as overrated as 2006? Remember last year's predictions that we were in for a brutal spell of storms? It had been quiet, they said, and we were due for a series of Katrina-like hurricanes. But as we wrote last November, as the much-dreaded '06 season whimpered to a close, the storm year came in like a lamb and went out the same way.

For years, the Greenshirts have told us that emissions of carbon dioxide resulting from man's addiction to fossil fuel-based energy are turning the planet into a sweltering hothouse. The United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change has projected a temperature increase of 2 to 11.5 degrees Fahrenheit for the 21st century due to the greenhouse effect.

As a result, alarmists say, ice caps will melt, glaciers will thaw and sea levels will rise as much as 20 feet, causing floods and death in low-lying areas. Storms are also predicted to increase in both frequency and intensity.

To prevent this coming Category 5 cataclysm, we're supposed to shell out trillions of dollars and gladly adopt Spartan lifestyles. Instead of trying, as their grandparents did, to see how many bodies they can squeeze into a telephone booth, today's college kids are expected to see how many they can get in a Prius.

Yet the fact remains: The local weatherman can't forecast more than about 10 days out, and neither can the experts tell us how warm, or cool, the planet is going to be in 2100, 2075 or even 2050.

Even short-term predictions have been off. James Hansen, NASA scientist, predicted a 0.45-degree Celsius (0.81-degree Fahrenheit) rise in global temperature from 1988 to 1997. But in reality (a place environmental activists rarely visit) the increase was a mere 0.11-degree Celsius.

We hope no one in Hansen's neighborhood relies on him to tell them when it's going to rain or when they'll need a coat and hat.

Setting aside the hubristic notion that alarmists know what the right temperature is, too many other factors besides the greenhouse effect influence climate for them to declare they know exactly, or even approximately, what's coming. Solar activity, for instance, is among the most powerful, as are the El Nino and La Nina phenomena.

We also question the concept of a "global" temperature. How could such a thing be measured when weather stations dot rather than blanket the Earth? Danish physicist Bjarne Andresen, a professor at the University of Copenhagen, made sense earlier this year when he said it's "impossible to talk about a single temperature for something as complicated as the climate of Earth.

"A temperature can be defined only for a homogeneous system (and) climate is not governed by a single temperature," he said. "Rather, differences of temperatures drive the processes and create the storms, sea currents, thunder, etc. , which make up the climate."

The formula for a climate of fear, though, requires nothing more than a lot of thunder and a bit of heat generated by political activists.
morning all. I see that wee have a lot of convection the gom. also i see that new gfs runs are out. depending on what the situation is i may or may not blog a tropical weather disscussion today. however that thing in the gulf is getting better organized so more problems for me here in texas. I have jsut turned on my computer this morning so i need to see some stuff before i can tell whats going on.
ok guys if seen sat. pics and model runs for today. gfs ngp uk all still showing development off of that new wave that is going to leave the african mainland tomorrow about 3 days after it emerges. We got major problems in texas three lighting strikes recently and three houses are on fire in my subdidivision sirens all over the place. In any event the low in the boc look like a full blown tropical storm inf fact it resembles tropical storm allison in appearence. Whil upper level still arent great i think that if this appearence persist during the day today this afternoon the nhc may jump on it like they did with barry. Other than that i do not think that the new wave over africa will develop that quickly after it emerges lik the models are suggesting. I think probably when it reaches the high tchp levels near the antillies it will develop. Also nogap shows a storm forming from a mid atlantic wave that moves near the carrib at the end of 7 days. That is a more liklely developmental scenerio. In any event at anytime time now we could see a system rapidly form from a wave or a trough and become a storm so the tropics need to be watched very carefully. If i was in charge at the nhc i would be more concerned with that gulf blob especially with the circular appearence and the heavy convection at the center.

Regarding the supposedly "slow" start to the season (when in fact it has been the opposite, unless you are referring to the East and/or West Pacific; Cosme was one of the latest first hurricanes on record and the WPAC has had about 1/2 of their normal activity to date), here is a comment that I posted last year (unfortunately, the link I got it from is broken now, and of course the La Nina last year went bust and turned into El Nino - but the principle remains):

Posted By: MichaelSTL at 7:40 PM CDT on July 07, 2006.

Remember that this year started with La Nina conditions? Well, this page is interesting especially in what it says about La Nina year hurricane seasons:

It does seem to make much different to some folks. They hear all about the Hurricane season forecast for various sources then come Mid- August when only 1 or 2 Tropical cyclones have developed they start complaining about busted forecasts and media hysteria. The fact is La Nina hurricane seasons are Notoriously slow starting seasons.

The above can indeed be confirmed by looking at past seasons, and it doesn't really matter much how strong La Nina gets or how fast it develops either (an extreme example is 1969, with 18 storms; the third storm developed in mid-August and made landfall as a 190 mph Cat 5).
The convection is getting intense and widespread in the gulf I dont know if it will hold into Texas or if Texas will even be its destination. The GFS seems to be off on this one. The NAM has been more accurate. um....

er lol.?

Well anywho TCC theres not much circ there - you can tell on the WV when it dissipated earlier but that could change quickly. especially as more stuff moves in (waves moisture etc...) from both the east and west.

It may get invest status just because of the critical situation in Texas.
2277. Drakoen
TCC if you looked at the cyclone phase diagram its only 2 days...
CIMSS says shear is favorable in the Western GOM.
2279. quante
Anyone have a link testing the accuracy of long range forecasts to actual outcome in predicting formation and location of tropical system? In my wholely unscientific experience they are almost never right past 2 days.
Are the steering currents in the GOM pushing all that convection into TX still?
sonofagun, I see 20-30 kts of upper shear in the GOM in the cimss.
I guess shear *was* favorable when I posted that link, but it's just been updated with the latest map which shows it less favorable now...
2283. guygee
Posted By: guygee at 12:58 PM GMT on July 26, 2007.
...if you quote me and respond with LOL, without offering any countering evidence or reasoning, then yes, you are a troll. It is not my rule, it is a fallacious argument under the Rules of Informal Logic. It is an Ad Hominem attack. ...
I wish I had never written this, LOL.
I forgot that rules are made to be broken, LOL.
It is the sacred right of every American, it is the American Way! LOL!
(just procrastinating while trying to decide which chore to tackle first, LOL).
LOL, guygee!

For rules...I like an old tune by Tanya Tucker that has a line it..."There's a tree out in the backyard, that never has been broken by the wind...cause it was strong enough to bend!"
2285. IKE
finally at the office - these soccer camps are gonna kill me!

It looks like the convection is deepening in the GOM, but there's 20 - 25kts of shear over it. Hard to make a case for development...

The winds at all levels head N(so are they northerly or southerly?) to NE, so I just can't buy the NW movement - that L is too far west at the moment...

As to rules, I checked in the rear view mirror, guygee - no warts on my nose or face... (grin)

(Edit) Oh yeah - almost forgot - NEW BLOG!
man - these crickets sure are loud...
To read:

WU members discuss evacuation

A compilation of comments WU members left on this Blog concerning evacuation in a more accessible form.
SEE: Link

I have copied these comments, (over 120 comments by about 40 WU members)and it is my first WU blog entry.

okay that blob is not even close to a ts. Hwoever if i was the nhc i would have named it a disturbance numberl. The fact that hasn't been done when it should have been done dissapoints me. So what if it appears it won't develop? when you gte something like this in the tropics at this time of year it has to at least be named a disturbance number even if it is not going to develop.
Thanks, SW.

Good info - agree on the GOM blob - 20kts to 25kts shear, correct?