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Warm, Wet Year for U.S.; Record Heat in South Africa; Tropical Storm Pali Intensifies

By: Bob Henson 5:56 PM GMT on January 08, 2016

Many Americans were throwing on T-shirts or rain gear instead of heavy coats last month, in what proved to be the nation’s mildest and wettest December in more than a century of record-keeping. On Thursday, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) released initial data on December and for the year 2015. (A full report will be issued on January 13). As a whole, 2015 came in as the second warmest and second wettest year on record for the contiguous U.S.

It’s hard to overstate the striking character of December’s mildness. Millions of people along the Eastern Seaboard experienced it first hand, as all of the big cities (and many smaller ones) from Washington, D.C., to Portland, Maine, smashed their previous records for December warmth. New York City’s Central Park went through the entire month of December without dipping down to freezing, whereas all prior Decembers back to 1871 had reached 32°F at least six times. As shown in Figure 1, each state east of the Mississippi--plus Minnesota, Iowa, and Missouri--saw its warmest December on record, and even the coolest states were close to their long-term December average. All told, close to 12,000 daily records (warm highs and warm lows) were set across the nation in December, as noted by weather.com. There was plenty of moisture to be had as well: 40 states came in above average on precipitation, with Iowa and Wisconsin getting their wettest December on record and Minnesota, Missouri and Illinois coming in at second-wettest. These rains contributed to the exceptional flood crest now moving along the lower Mississippi River.


Figure 1. Temperature and precipitation rankings by state for December 2015. Higher numbers indicate warmer and wetter conditions. States labeled 121 (dark red and dark green) experienced the warmest or wettest Decembers in 121 years of national recordkeeping. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


For the year as a whole, the warmth and moisture were widely distributed across the contiguous U.S. There were more than twice as many daily record highs as record lows for the year, but as noted by Climate Central, a brutally cold February over the eastern U.S. was the main factor keeping 2015 from being the nation’s warmest year. The northwest and southeast corners of the 48 states, Washington and Florida, both had their warmest year on record, as did Oregon and Montana. All 48 contiguous states saw at least a top-25 warmest year. Only five were notably drier than average in 2015--California, Montana, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts--while many central states had a top-10 wettest year, with Texas and Oklahoma notching their wettest on record. (During the first week of 2016, moisture has also returned to California in a big way, thanks to a parade of soggy Pacific storm systems; more on that in a future post.)


Figure 2. Temperature and precipitation rankings by state, as in Figure 1, but for the entire year of 2015 (January – December). Higher numbers indicate warmer and wetter conditions. States labeled 121 (dark red and dark green) experienced the warmest or wettest year in 121 years of national recordkeeping. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


How did the U.S. stay so mild and moist at the same time?
The combination of unusual warmth and unusual moisture is a standout in itself. Heavy, persistent precipitation often means lots of sun-blocking clouds that cut down on heating. Very warm months are typically the driest ones. That was the case in June 1933 and May 1934, two Dust Bowl months that still reign as the warmest and driest May and June in U.S. history (thanks to Nick Wiltgen at weather.com for this find). What made the difference last month, and last year, was the record-warm sea surface temperatures over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic, a function of El Niño and other short-term oceanic patterns as well as long-term warming related to human-produced climate change. These warm SSTs allowed vast amounts of moisture to evaporate into air masses flowing toward the lower 48 states. In turn, this led to countless records for precipitable water (the amount of water vapor in the air above a given measuring site). Near the surface, the moisture helped to keep nighttime temperatures consistently high in many locations.

Here’s just one example: During the nine-day period from December 23 to 31, the lowest temperature observed in Key West, Florida, was 78°F. This happens to be the previous record-warm minimum for the entire month of December, going back to 1871! This is the first time I’ve heard of any U.S. location with more than a century of weather-observing history that managed to tie or set a monthly record on so many consecutive days. Key West’s daily lows were an astounding 79°F on December 25, 27, 28, 29, and 31. Finally, on January 3, the mercury dropped below 69°F, for the first time since April 1--making it the longest such streak at or above 69°F (277 days) in Key West history.


Figure 3. Average temperatures for the period September-December since 1895 for the contiguous U.S. This past Sep-Dec was more than 1°F warmer than the previous record-holder, 1998. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.


The big wet
Two states saw their wettest months on record in May 2015: Texas (8.81”) and Oklahoma (14.40”). South Carolina didn’t manage that feat during its extreme October deluge, but the state did end up with its wettest autumn on record (23.62”, more than 5” above the previous record). Hand in hand with these large-scale dousings, there were some particularly hefty year-long accumulations at individual sites, including these wettest local years on record:

St. Louis, MO: 61.24” (old record 57.96” in 2008)
Fort Smith, AR: 73.93” (old record 71.81” in 1945)
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX: 61.61” (old record 53.54” in 1991)



Figure 4. A Japanese camellia (japonica) in bloom at Danville, Virginia, on December 25, 2015. Image credit: wunderphotographer WeatherWise.


A Christmas warm wave for the ages
December culminated in a memorable week-plus period of record warmth that swaddled most of the nation east of the Rockies. On Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, a total of 847 U.S. stations tied or broke record daily highs, according to preliminary data on NOAA’s U.S. Records website. Dozens of those previous marks were bested by at least 10°F. In Hanover, New Hampshire, it was 67°F on Christmas Day--a full 17°F warmer than any other Christmas in 122 years of recordkeeping. Just after noon on Christmas Eve, the heat index in Virginia Beach, VA, reached an absurdly unseasonable 86°F! Not to be outdone, the northwestern Alaska town of Kotzebue basked in the relative warmth of 37°F--tying its record monthly high--on the evening of December 30.

Chilly weather has returned to much of the central and eastern U.S. for early January. Although the cold is a bracing experience for those who got accustomed to extreme autumn mildness, it’s merely garden-variety chill by climatological standards. We are unlikely to see many record lows or record-cold highs in the foreseeable future, whereas a day of near-record warmth is once again possible in the mid-Atlantic and southern New England on Sunday. Still, one of the coldest pro football games in recent decades is on tap for Sunday, when the Minnesota Vikings will host the Seattle Seahawks in a wild-card playoff. Though probably well above record levels, temperatures at the 12:05 pm kickoff at the non-domed TCF Bank Stadium in Minneapolis are expected to be near or just below 0°F, with a wind chill as cold as –20°F possible. According to the Weather Channel’s Michael Butler, the Seahawks have never played in temperatures any colder than 16°F (Dec. 3, 2006, in Denver). The Vikings, who are temporarily based at TCF Bank Stadium while awaiting a new roofed stadium, have kicked off only once before in subzero weather: on Dec. 3, 1972, with a temperature of -2°F.

All-time record heat in southern Africa
A heat wave in the midst of an already scorching summer has baked southern Africa this week, producing the hottest readings ever observed in a number of locations. According to weather records researcher Maximiliano Herrera, Botswana set the world’s first all-time national high temperature of 2016 on Wednesday, January 6, then exceeded it on Thursday, January 7, as the city of Maun hit at least 43.8°C or 110.8°F (officially rounded upward to 44°C). Herrera, one of the world's top climatologists, maintains a comprehensive list of extreme temperature records for every nation in the world on his website, which lists dozens of all-time local record highs set since the first of this year across South Africa, Botswana, and Zimbabwe. South Africa’s capital city, Pretoria, soared to 42.7°C (108.9°F) on Thursday--the most recent in a string of several all-time record highs there over the last few weeks. In the nation’s largest city, Johannesburg, an all-time record of 36.5°C set only last November has been topped several times, most recently on Thursday with a high of 38.9°C (102.0°F). The heat across South Africa has also toppled many all-time world temperature records for any location at altitudes between 1000 and 1600 meters (3280 - 5250 feet), according to Herrera.

A severe multi-year drought in and near South Africa has drained reservoirs, devastated farming, and parched the landscape, allowing the summer sun to heat the land and air more efficiently (the same process that fostered record heat in California over the last several years). Making things worse, El Niño tends to produce drier-than-average conditions over southern Africa. Record-warm temperatures over the Indian Ocean are also playing a role, according to researchers. “The warming of the Indian Ocean is contributing to the stable air mass over the interior,” said Mary Scholes (University of the Witwatersrand) in an email. As global temperatures continue to climb this century due to human-produced greenhouse gases, Africa is expected to warm more quickly than the global average. Particularly high warming rates are expected over southwestern South Africa, Botswana, and Namibia, according to the chapter on Africa (PDF) in the 2014 Fifth Assessment Report (Working Group II) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). “Africa as a whole is one of the most vulnerable continents [to climate change] due to its high exposure and low adaptive capacity,” notes the report.


Figure 6. Infrared image of Tropical Storm Pali at 17Z (12 pm EST) Friday, January 8, 2015. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Tropical Storm Pali gathers strength in Central Pacific
The tropical depression located about 1400 miles southwest of Hawaii became Tropical Storm Pali on Thursday. Pali is the earliest tropical storm on record to develop between the International Date Line and the Americas (though one could argue the record-smashing 2015 tropical season in the Central Pacific has sloshed into 2016). As of 15Z (10 am EST) Friday, January 8, Pali’s top sustained winds had reached 55 knots (65 mph). Pali is embedded in a low-level trough between a westerly wind burst south of the equator and strong trade winds north of the storm, with easterly wind shear evident in satellite imagery. Pali’s northwestward motion is expected to slow to a crawl this weekend, after which the storm may bend back toward the south. The strong vertical wind shear (20 - 30 knots) and interactions with the surface trough are expected to gradually weaken Pali over the next several days.

In the Northwest Atlantic, a powerful nontropical low is stirring up the ocean west of Bermuda with a large area of strong winds, some as high as 65 mph. Models continue to move this system toward the east and southeast by early next week, which could put it in a more favorable environment for subtropical development. On Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center gave this system a 30% chance of subtropical or tropical development over the next five days.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson




Climate Summaries Climate Change Hurricane Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 485. Sfloridacat5:



Watching the news live last night as the situation was unfolding, the weekend meteorologist with little on-air experience was having a nervous breakdown. You could tell he had never seen a tornado signal of that strength while on the air.
He was trying to not alarm viewers, but you could tell he was freaked out by what he was seeing. He was seeing a strong rotation warning signal at low levels (near the ground) and he knew the chances were very high that a tornado was on the ground.

the first of a few tornadic events for fla this the next couple of months
Quoting 501. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



---
This northward excursion of the jet stream's gonna push up the temps anomalies in Alaska and above in the Arctic, I think...
Well winter storms and soon to be subtropical or tropical storm Alex hell wouldn't be surprised if it becomes Hurricane Alex either

With me moving back to UK at the end of 2016 I do hope 2016 Atlantic hurricane season ends up being really good
Quoting 451. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Storm # 4 Rainfall Totals thru 7:09am PST = 0.05"




Not sure if 0.05 is worth warranting a storm # designation :)
Quoting 437. SouthTampa:

Vontaze Burfict has a history of trying to injure opposing players. He should receive a hefty fine for his egregious hit on Brown. Perhaps a suspension to start next season too. He cost the Bengals that game by being out of control. To boot, the Bengals' fans were terrible.


He should get suspended for many games, it bothers me that a player that is clearly trying to hurt someone and ruin their career has yet to be given suspension, but yet NFL players sometimes have gotten suspended several games for weed possession.
Quoting 465. washingtonian115:



Credit to blogger Pcroton


Gettin' that "look" to it. Incredible for January if this gets a name, even more so during an El Niño episode.
Quoting 495. HaoleboySurfEC:

Link

Big waves in California courtesy of El Nino. Garrett McNamara paid the price on this one at Mavericks. He injured his shoulder badly.

They closed a beach near the old Fort Funston in San Francisco due to dangerous waves and slide action. Wave heights are down to about 10 feet now, but long period so still powerful.
Quoting 489. HaoleboySurfEC:

Kori may have made a good call on it as well. Moving SE hmmmm...



But lots of cold air being drawn into it.
Station 46059 (LLNR 382) - WEST CALIFORNIA - 357NM West of San Francisco

Wind Direction (WDIR): S ( 170 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 29.1 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 60.1 F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 57.4 F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 57.4 F

Strong southerly flow ahead of the next system offshore with air temp having spiked above the SST. This system may or may not bring us something by Monday, but a stronger system is supposed to come in by Tuesday into Wednesday. Still no really strong storms on the horizon yet as the main jet stays too far south. Up side is that the soils are getting a slow deep soaking, avoiding hydro problems.
511. 882MB
Looks like there will be some type of impact, from the system in the Atlantic in my area.

COASTAL FLOOD WATCH

COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
237 PM AST SUN JAN 10 2016

...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL GENERATE A LARGE
AND LONG PERIOD SWELL THAT WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS
ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...

PRZ001-005-008-110900-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.SU.Y.0002.160111T1800Z-160113T1200Z/
/O.NEW.TJSJ.CF.A.0001.160112T0000Z-160113T1200Z/
/O.CON.TJSJ.RP.S.0003.000000T0000Z-160110T2200Z/
SAN JUAN AND VICINITY-NORTH CENTRAL-NORTHWEST-
237 PM AST SUN JAN 10 2016

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM AST THIS
EVENING...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM AST
WEDNESDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM AST
WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED. THIS
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* COASTAL FLOODING...LARGE AND LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL
FLOODING.

* WAVES AND SURF...BREAKING WAVE HEIGHT AT 10 TO 15 FEET FROM
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING

* LOCATION...ALONG THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST COASTS OF PUERTO RICO.

* TIMING...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM MONDAY
THROUGH TO 8 AM WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MONDAY EVENING TO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...LIFE THREATENING CURRENTS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS
SWIMMING CONDITIONS. MODERATE BEACH EROSION AND MINOR TO
MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

RIP CURRENTS ARE POWERFUL CHANNELS OF WATER FLOWING QUICKLY AWAY
FROM SHORE...WHICH OCCUR MOST OFTEN AT LOW SPOTS OR BREAKS IN THE
SANDBAR AND IN THE VICINITY OF STRUCTURES SUCH AS GROINS...
JETTIES AND PIERS. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS...BEACH PATROL
FLAGS AND SIGNS.

IF YOU BECOME CAUGHT IN A RIP CURRENT...YELL FOR HELP. REMAIN
CALM...DO NOT EXHAUST YOURSELF AND STAY AFLOAT WHILE WAITING FOR
HELP. IF YOU HAVE TO SWIM OUT OF A RIP CURRENT...SWIM PARALLEL TO
SHORE AND BACK TOWARD THE BEACH WHEN POSSIBLE. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
SWIM DIRECTLY AGAINST A RIP CURRENT AS YOU WILL TIRE QUICKLY.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT HIGH SURF WILL AFFECT BEACHES IN
THE ADVISORY AREA...PRODUCING LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION AND
DANGEROUS SWIMMING CONDITIONS.

A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR
FLOODING ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. COASTAL RESIDENTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS...AND TAKE ACTION TO
PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$

Quoting 508. BayFog:


They closed a beach near the old Fort Funston in San Francisco due to dangerous waves and slide action. Wave heights are down to about 10 feet now, but long period so still powerful.


Not that big down in Huntington Beach. Guys are catching some pretty clean surf though.

HB's cam is my favorite because it's HD and you can watch it free for as long as you want.
Link

I've also never been a fan of Mavericks. That wave is just a huge peak of death and then your ride ends.
72 degrees here on the space coast. Turning a little cooler tonight and into the work week. Then a warm up, then rain again. Same old story! Mowed the lawn earlier today and notice Love Bugs flying around, really? Maybe El-Nino is having an affect on them. You know the weather is messed up around here if they are out in January.
Quoting 500. Jedkins01:



I can imagine, it's not easy to be in the position of warning people that way, there is naturally a fear to neither overdo the warning or underdo it, which is a good thing, but it doesn't make it any easier.




I remember Gary England (Chief Meteorologist on a local station in Oklahoma City) telling people to get underground or they would most likely be killed during the EF5 tornado that went through Moore and the south side of Oklahoma City.
We used to have a house on S.W. 127th street in Oklahoma City, and I graduated from Moore High School. At the time (May 1999), almost no one (average income homes) had a tornado shelter in their home.

You know the old saying, "put your head between your knees and kiss your ass good bye" came to mind.
New blog entry : or see comment .492 for full text.

WU blog Link
Its January.Yet it looks like a tropical storm is occuring outside with the wind gust and rain.The whacky weather train continues.
Quoting 513. hydrus:



How I wish that was true.
519. vis0
Started raining medium8  to hard2 raindrops 12mins ago south edge of zip code 10016 (NYC) (8:2 ratio towards medium sized drops)

update light (6 medium 4 rain drops (6:4 ratio towards light drops)
Quoting 515. Sfloridacat5:



I remember Gary England (Chief Meteorologist on a local station in Oklahoma City) telling people to get underground or they would most likely be killed during the EF5 tornado that went through Moore and the south side of Oklahoma City.
We used to have a house on S.W. 127th street in Oklahoma City, and I graduated from Moore High School. At the time (May 1999), almost no one (average income homes) had a tornado shelter in their home.

You know the old saying, "put your head between your knees and kiss your ass good bye" came to mind.
Yep...People were killed in there storm cellars.
Quoting 455. sar2401:

I imagine it's a whisper story from someone in the NWS telling someone in the EMA what a preliminary drive-by of the damage looks like. We used to get that type of information from different agencies to help us get started with paperwork, but we also promised not to leak it to the press until there was an official announcement.

I think for EF@ and greater tornadoes an spc official has to survey the damage and give the rating
Quoting 507. LostTomorrows:



Gettin' that "look" to it. Incredible for January if this gets a name, even more so during an El Niño episode.

it is an incredible storm but I think since it is extra-tropical El nino doesn't have much bearing on the conditions it is in
Quoting 515. Sfloridacat5:



I remember Gary England (Chief Meteorologist on a local station in Oklahoma City) telling people to get underground or they would most likely be killed during the EF5 tornado that went through Moore and the south side of Oklahoma City.
We used to have a house on S.W. 127th street in Oklahoma City, and I graduated from Moore High School. At the time (May 1999), almost no one (average income homes) had a tornado shelter in their home.

You know the old saying, "put your head between your knees and kiss your ass good bye" came to mind.
Just happened to come across this today - somewhat related.

....(snip) Simmons at Austin College co-authored a study in Moore, Oklahoma, published this year, not about flooding but tornadoes, the more frequent bane of that long-suffering community. Simmons looked at a tougher building code adopted by Moore officials after a tornado in 2013 killed seven children in an elementary school, the third catastrophic tornado to hit Moore in 14 years.

What they found was that if all the homes in Oklahoma had been built to the new Moore standards, the extra cost would have been about $3.3 billion, adding an average of $2,000 to each new house. But the savings in wind damages that Oklahoma could expect in the next 25 years would be about $11 billion. Not a bad trade-off.

I asked Simmons about the cost of running off developers by imposing stricter standards versus the benefit of attracting more people to Oklahoma because they’re less afraid of getting blown away with their little dog, Toto. He said it’s too early to tell. I think what he really meant was, “Only reporters ask things like that,” but he was too nice to say it.


....(snip)
524. vis0
Finally #badREFcalls R ovrcomed, Seattle wins. Still raining light 9, med1 more towards a drizzle WITH sun shine at times, something very rare during Winter, aka spring shower w-sunshine.
Quoting 517. washingtonian115:

Its January.Yet it looks like a tropical storm is occuring outside with the wind gust and rain.The whacky weather train continues.
Very crazy indeed, the sun is now back out after those gusty and windy showers.
The Atlantic Storm is still looking like it will become a named storm this week.
Line of storms moving into New England. In January. I was (unintentionally) on a walk during it, cloud to ground lightning. So that was interesting.
Quoting 527. winter123:

Line of storms moving into New England. In January. I was (unintentionally) on a walk during it, cloud to ground lightning. So that was interesting.
I have free membership to the club called "where is winter?" You can join any time.Membership is free :).I'll bring the margarita's for the adults.
Quoting 527. winter123:

Line of storms moving into New England. In January. I was (unintentionally) on a walk during it, cloud to ground lightning. So that was interesting.


A 60 mph gust was reported in Suffolk New York, weird stuff...
If "82L" reaches hurricane-force winds, will they designate it extratropical, category 1 hurricane, or a subtropical storm?
Getting real windy here in Greenville with gusts up to 30mph.. Temp dropping fast!! Going to be in the low to mid 20s here tonight!
Quoting 530. HurricaneFan:

If "82L" reaches hurricane-force winds, will they designate it extratropical, category 1 hurricane, or a subtropical storm?

It already has hurricane-force winds. It's designated as extratropical. A system can only be considered a hurricane if it's a truly warm core cyclone.
Quoting 532. TropicalAnalystwx13:


It already has hurricane-force winds. It's designated as extratropical. A system can only be considered a hurricane if it's a truly warm core cyclone.


So if this thing does not become fully tropical it won't form? It has to WEAKEN to earn a name?
Himawari IR sat. loop of TS Pali, intensifying at sunrise ( ! takes time to load with low speed internet ! ) :
Link
I'm looking more forward to hurricane season.I think it'll tell the tale on whether we have officially ended the active period or not.There are some question that I need to answers to and we'll only get answers with time.
Quoting 533. HurricaneFan:



So if this thing does not become fully tropical it won't form? It has to WEAKEN to earn a name?


If this AOI becomes tropical with hurricane force winds, it'll be upgraded straight from an invest to a Category 1 hurricane. A previous precedence would be Hurricane Noel in 2001.
Quoting 492. 999Ai2016:



Atlantic packs quite a punch these days, and Europe is still feeling the heat with new storms projected to hammer nearly every coastal part of Portugal, Spain, France, Italy and the UK tonight and tomorrow with strong waves and/or wind gusts of more than 80-100 kph expected in the next 24 hours there.

Apart from that, in France, the first half of winter already set a number of new local records (for example, still no freezing day for Paris, latest ever frost date for the city, Meteo-France is forecasting the first frost there maybe next weekend...).
Also, December 2015 has set the highest December mean temperature ever for France, 3.9C above the 1981-2010 mean for this month...
2015 as a whole ranked third, behind 2014 (1st) and 2011 (2nd) as the hottest year in the meterorological record. Last year has been around 1C above the 1981-2010 mean.

(( Update : also, high waves and high tidal coefficient expected for France's Atlantic coast tomorrow, on top of the strong winds there; some quite impressive winter coastal erosion possible ))


I take it you are in Europe.

I am curious. Is there a large and vocal climate skeptic community in Europe as there is in the United States?


NWS has rated the Cape Coral tornado at an EF2 at 132 mph peak estimate. This is close to the EF3 designation of winds>135 mph.

Link
Quoting 517. washingtonian115:

Its January.Yet it looks like a tropical storm is occuring outside with the wind gust and rain.The whacky weather train continues.


In hyattsville I got a line of light showers and rain followed by a sharp temperature drop.
Quoting 537. Qazulight:



I take it you are in Europe.

I am curious. Is there a large and vocal climate skeptic community in Europe as there is in the United States?




I am.
No, the climate skeptic community is not really vocal in Europe, in fact I think it barely exists at all. Of course, there are some paranoid people who doubt global warming publicly, or believe in the so-called climate conspiracy, usually among other conspiracies (chemtrails, illuminati, and such...). The only problem is that many people still aren't fully aware of the magnitude of the problem, same thing in the US I believe. But there really has been some progress in the last few years, and many people are wiling to listen to nature's warnings, especially when there are heat waves and extreme weather events like no one has ever seen before (and it happens a lot these days). Also, the COP 21 and this winter's weather anomalies are helping a lot.

(a French meteorogist from the official met. agency even got fired a few months ago after he had doubted climate change publicly.)
Gotta love the weather this year... January 10th, Upstate New York and it was 55F and we just got our first Thunderstorm of the year and boy was it a doozy! Hail and mostly cloud to ground lightening!
Quoting 539. georgevandenberghe:



In hyattsville I got a line of light showers and rain followed by a sharp temperature drop.
We had heavier ones here.The winds have picked up significantly and a few gust have reached 50mph at least.
I keep checking my calendars, they all agree that it is January 10, but we are having a THUNDERSTORM with POURING RAIN in Vermont!

I think I must be hallucinating.
Quoting 545. VermontStorms:

I keep checking my calendars, they all agree that it is January 10, but we are having a THUNDERSTORM with POURING RAIN in Vermont!

I think I must be hallucinating.


Granville NY here and got quite a bit of ground strikes... This "winter" keeps getting better and better :D
Quoting 538. Jedkins01:


NWS has rated the Cape Coral tornado at an EF2 at 132 mph peak estimate. This is close to the EF3 designation of winds>135 mph.

Link

NWS Tampa is very lucky nobody was killed last night. I'd imagine someone's in a lot of trouble for not issuing a tornado warning in a timely fashion in light of a very distinct signature on radar (the strongest I'd say I've ever seen in Florida).
Cyclone Ula: Category four cyclone weakens and heads south-west, leaving Vanuatu food gardens devastated
ABC, Updated about an hour ago
The Vanuatu National Disaster Management Office has given the all-clear for its southern islands as Severe Tropical Cyclone Ula moves away from the archipelago.
Initial reports suggest the islands of Tafea Province escaped the worst of the category four storm, with no deaths or injuries or major damage reported. ...


Quoting 546. Doom2pro:



Granville NY here and got quite a bit of ground strikes... This "winter" keeps getting better and better :D


Yes, all that I have been able to see has been cloud-to-ground (and since we are surrounded by hills, I can only see what is fairly close, so there must be a lot!)
I have a feeling this will be a good year for thundersnow.
Quoting 551. SeriouslySushi:

I have a feeling this will be a good year for thundersnow.


Sure wish that was what we are getting now -- currently at 0.97" of rain today, and still raining. It would be a nice little snow storm if it weren't 45 degrees!
Observed at:

Toronto Pearson Int'l Airport

Date:

6:00 PM EST Sunday 10 January 2016

Temperature:

29.3F

Dewpoint:

19.2F

Humidity:

66%

Wind:

W 41 gust 49 mph

Wind Chill:

12

it was 45.1 degrees at 1 pm at 6 30 its 29.5 low of 18 by day break with chills in the single digits and flurries snow redeveloping late in the evening Monday into tuseday remaining windy and cold for the duration of the week
Quoting 550. VermontStorms:



Yes, all that I have been able to see has been cloud-to-ground (and since we are surrounded by hills, I can only see what is fairly close, so there must be a lot!)


Quoting 555. BaltimoreBrian:






Hehe, I'll be gone by then!

Picked up a dusting of snow this morning. The high occurred in the morning as well, it was 27 when my parents went downstairs to make breakfast. It was 24 when I got home from from church and food shopping with Mom.
What month is it? May, right? It's definitely May...
Quoting 547. TropicalAnalystwx13:


NWS Tampa is very lucky nobody was killed last night. I'd imagine someone's in a lot of trouble for not issuing a tornado warning in a timely fashion in light of a very distinct signature on radar (the strongest I'd say I've ever seen in Florida).


I've been told the NBC-2 news (Fort Myers) radar is better at picking up tornado signatures in the Fort Myers area. I've also heard that on occasion the NWS relies on information coming from NBC-2 for identifying tornado signatures they can't see on the NWS radar out of Tampa.

ne snow total water ratio mm by jan 15 as per 18z gfs

Quoting 547. TropicalAnalystwx13:


NWS Tampa is very lucky nobody was killed last night. I'd imagine someone's in a lot of trouble for not issuing a tornado warning in a timely fashion in light of a very distinct signature on radar (the strongest I'd say I've ever seen in Florida).


As the velocity couplet crossed Pine Island I was already wondering why no warning. By the time ot was near Cape Coral i was yelling at my laptop..... The rotation I saw on GR2AE was what you normally see in the Plains....
Quoting 558. Sfloridacat5:



I've been told the NBC-2 news (Fort Myers) radar is better at picking up tornado signatures in the Fort Myers area. I've also heard that on occasion the NWS relies on information coming from NBC-2 for identifying tornado signatures they can't see on the NWS radar out of Tampa.




I didn't know NBC2 had their own radar. Maybe this will reignite the discussion of adding a TDWR at KSRW.... you know only 1.5 million people live in Lee and Collier counties and both are nearly out of useful radar range from Tampa or Miami.
Quoting 561. acl8610:



I didn't know NBC2 had their own radar. Maybe this will reignite the discussion of adding a TDWR at KSRW.... you know only 1.5 million people live in Lee and Collier counties and both are nearly out of useful radar range from Tampa or Miami.


Yeah, NBC-2 is the only "live" radar in S.W. Florida. They run weather commercials saying this all the time.
TS Pali is fun to watch since it was designated : it struggled a lot against the wind shear, almost died yesterday and now it's making a come-back with strong convection building up. It even looked like a jellyfish a few hours ago on the IR/visible sat. pictures. The intensity models are now showing a strong bias towards intensification, but the official forecast has remained optimistic, hinting at a possible dissipation within the next 2 days, if I read both official and models forecast correctly. I like it when official forecasts and models seem to disagree, it leaves some room for surprises.
Quoting 556. Astrometeor:



Hehe, I'll be gone by then!

Picked up a dusting of snow this morning. The high occurred in the morning as well, it was 27 when my parents went downstairs to make breakfast. It was 24 when I got home from from church and food shopping with Mom.


Now it's 20F, just north of Nashville, TN.

>.< Who turned winter on?
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 555. BaltimoreBrian:






Yeah I noticed this earlier as well, the GFS wants to bring my location into the upper teens, if that verified that would be the coldest in 2 years here, and the freezing line well down the state would be shocker to the plants, at least it's going to be pretty darn chilly this week in much of Florida, so it won't be an utter shock.
.
Quoting 547. TropicalAnalystwx13:


NWS Tampa is very lucky nobody was killed last night. I'd imagine someone's in a lot of trouble for not issuing a tornado warning in a timely fashion in light of a very distinct signature on radar (the strongest I'd say I've ever seen in Florida).


Yeah that was definitely a much later warning than usual given NWS policy, they would rather have someone even issue a borderline tornado warning than not. Something went wrong, but mistakes do happen to the best of us...

And while that was definitely a strong radar signature, I don't think it's the strongest. There have been over 300 tornadoes in Florida rated at EF2, and about 40 tornadoes of EF3 strength or stronger. But there have only been 2 or 3 tornadoes of EF4 strength, and none at EF5.

Surprisingly, the highest concentration of stronger tornadoes and tornadoes as a whole in Florida actually lies across the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Orlando instead of north Florida like one might expect. It's somewhat known as the I-4 tornado alley to local meteorologists. The majority of EF3 or stronger tornadoes have occurred in that area, and the only EF4's in state history also occurred in that region.

It's worth noting that no EF3 tornadoes have been recorded in the Naples/Ft. Myers area in contrast, so this tornado may be the strongest on record in the Ft. Myers area, given it was rated on the upper most tier for an EF2.

There is an obvious gaping whole in terms of a lack of tornado reports in rural parts of Florida compared to the larger city areas, either rural Floridians don't report them, or thick forests and swamps make tornado reporting not so practical.
Cold air coming down just in time...could be quite the set up. Warm ocean temps would impact p types.

Quoting 513. hydrus:


571. vis0

Quoting 506. Jedkins01:



He should get suspended for many games, it bothers me that a player that is clearly trying to hurt someone and ruin their career has yet to be given suspension, but yet NFL players sometimes have gotten suspended several games for weed possession.
Agree but also suspend the Steeler player that twice went helmet first into 2 players, though not as stiff as a penalty as Burfict (he is a repeater), but also the Pittsburgh sideline (though am a  NY'R i like Pittsburgh's style from steel curtain days) was nutty yesterday. 
Even the Steelers sideline coach & that medical crew  yanking the Browns players hand while the Browns player was apologizing, that's done every time there is a serious hit the opposing team apologizes to the hurt player, even if one thinks they guilty party might not be sceneire its a part of sportsmanship and it good for youngsters to see that the guilty party apologizes, since kids even adults learn best by example. If that yank (by the Pittsburgh medical crew) touches the hurt players head directly or indirectly (has pulling on players hair) it could have been serious 2ndry damage,

i think most of the fans where okay if this had happened in Philly or NE specially 6-8 yrs ago (tougher rules for fans throwing things since 2010)  sadly real bottles would have been flying or artificially hard snowballs.

In today's game of Green Bay v. Wash the first 5 points Wash scored came on a blow to GB's QBs head that was not called .  Hope there is a fine (no suspension) as too many head blows are not called there should also be a stop of celebrating by banging helmets i had a blog on how i state metal on metal hits causes damage that builds up and its bad enough it happens during the game  yet that's part of the game.  But these helmet to helmet hitting during celebration with your own player is bad and not necessary as to part of the game, i hope its not allowed in peewee games.

How does this fall into a weather / blog subject?

The better the human brain is working the better decisions it makes, be it during a tornado warning, TS warning, decisions as to help lower the affects of aGW or even just observing and learning from nature. so i hope kids do not think its cool to inflict pain. Play hard YES! tough YES! but do it clean...that goes for all, even any JETS coach trying to trip a player or Mr. Beckham.

Apology to WxU Mods but had to put in my 2 cents.
572. vis0

Quoting 551. SeriouslySushi:

I have a feeling this will be a good year for thundersnow.
over which area(s)?
Quoting 562. Sfloridacat5:



Yeah, NBC-2 is the only "live" radar in S.W. Florida. They run weather commercials saying this all the time.


Does Tom Rector still do weather for them?