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Vortex2 tornado study finally gets some twisters to study

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:56 PM GMT on June 08, 2009

A proven way to reduce the incidence of dangerous weather phenomena is to schedule a multi-million dollar field experiment to study the phenomena. Up until this past weekend, that has certainly been true of this year's $10 million Vortex2 tornado study. The 7-week study (which also runs next year) has deployed an armada of over 100 storm chasing vehicles across the Great Plains this Spring, but has largely been frustrated by an exceptionally quiet tornado season. Tornado activity in May was less than half of what was observed last year in May, thanks to a ridge of high pressure that has dominated the weather. The residents of Tornado Alley ran out of luck over the weekend, though, as a strong low pressure system and associated cold front brought severe weather and multiple tornadoes to the region. Sixteen tornado reports were received by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center yesterday, and three on Friday. The team of University of Michigan students that has been writing our featured Vortex2 blog caught some excellent pictures of tornadoes on both Friday and Sunday. Yesterday was probably the last best chance for the Vortex2 project to document a strong tornado, since the project ends this Saturday and no significant tornado outbreaks appear likely for the remainder of this week.

Aurora, Colorado tornado yesterday
A tornado with a 3/4 mile wide debris cloud swept through Aurora, Colorado yesterday, staying on the ground for 8 - 11 miles and damaging a shopping mall, but causing no deaths or injuries. The tornado passed close to one of the high-resolution Terminal Doppler Weather Radars (TDWRs) that we now feature on our web site (see the radar FAQ for more details on these great new additions to our radar offerings). Posted below are the reflectivity and Doppler velocity images from the tornado, showing the amazing fine-scale details these high-resolution radars offer.



Figure 1. Radar reflectivity (top) and Doppler velocity (bottom) from the Denver, Colorado Terminal Doppler Weather Radar (TDWR), which caught the classic signature of a supercell thunderstorm tornado over Aurora, Colorado. A tornado dropped down from the low-level mesocyclone inside the parent supercell thunderstorm at the time of these images. Yellow colors located right next to greens/blues indicate that winds are moving towards and away from the radar in close proximity, the signature of strong rotation at low levels. Also visible on the plot are the winds spreading out from a downdraft on the rear side of the tornado. Black arrows denote the direction of wind flow. The dryline was bent back into a E-W orientation near Denver, creating an area of moisture convergence, which triggered thunderstorm formation.

Western Caribbean disturbance unlikely to develop this week
As area of disturbed weather over the Western Caribbean has brought rains of 2 - 3 inches over portions of Nicaragua and Honduras over the past few days. Wind shear is a high 20 - 30 knots over the disturbance, and no computer models are indicating that the disturbance will develop this week.

Jeff Masters, with help from wunderground's tornado expert, Dr. Rob Carver

Dying out after an official 24 minutes on the ground
Tornado
Tornado
Twisted
Twisted
This was taken approximately 30 minutes after a brief tornado passed through South Hutchinson, KS tonight. The building is a bus manufacturing facility.

Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1502. Ossqss
Quoting Drakoen:
It seems we have a philosopher in the blog...


Testing, testing, Rule #1

Quoting StormW:


Don't focus on the skinny black line.
Indeed! ;)
1505. Seastep
Quoting hahaguy:

Don't drink the water in Mexico.


You're the best haha.

Love the dry humor and it fits your avatar to a tee.
Looks like will have to talk about Vortex 2 the next few days. The only thing out there now is the blob east of the Bahamas, and that looks like its got a fish hook in it.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam beginning to think you are what we call a cyber bully and are now at the legal point of assault by verbal accord

somone should create a blog of rules
Quoting gordydunnot:
Looks like will have to talk about Vortex 2 the next few days. The only thing out there now is the blob east of the Bahamas, and that looks like its got a fish hook in it.
yep but things can and will change not a matter of if but when
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
iam beginning to think you are what we call a cyber bully and are now at the legal point of assault by verbal accord



I do not think that he is, Keeper! Besides, I'm already more then use to his never-ending profoundly negative rideculing. :)
it is un-becoming ws he is smart but maybe too smart for is own dam good
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
it is un-becoming ws he is smart but maybe too smart for is own dam good


I know.
he is tryin to make you look like a fool but the only fool is himself for acting the way he has been by keeping this going and continues to do so its gettin kinda old for a while now
Yeah Keeper I just posted that to try and create some excitement,because the opposite of what I post usually happens.But I have learned a lot by making a guess and watching you guys say something different and founding out why you are usually right, do to the many links and information that you'll provide.
1515. Drakoen
LOL cyber bully!
"A smart man recognizes his ignorance"

All of us can be dogmatic at times and fail to recognize our ignorance.

This JFV WS PE situation has caused too much of a hysterical mood on this blog. WS, don't ever think I will forget when you sent me trollish comments on Youtube when I was banned a month ago. However, I have no intention on having enmity with anyone in this blog, for we are all brothers; we are the meteorological elite of internet weather blogging. WS, I now have nothing against you because finally admitted who you truly are.
gord
we are all different yet the same
Such a soap opera...

Or was it all just a dream?!?

Quoting Drakoen:
LOL cyber bully!
maybe a little too harsh but still the only one your making a fool out of is yourself
We should try to resolve this instead of incessantly blaming one another.
its almost a nightmare and drak and jfv are the boogy men
1522. Drakoen
Quoting futuremet:
"A smart man recognizes his ignorance"

All of us can be dogmatic at times and fail to recognize our ignorance.

This JFV WS PE situation has caused too much of a hysterical mood on this blog. WS, don't ever think I will forget when you sent me trollish comments on Youtube when I was banned a month ago. However, I have no intention on having enmity with anyone in this blog, for we are all brothers; the meteorological elite of internet weather blogging. WS, I now have nothing against you because finally admitted you truly are.


You sentence punctuation is messed up. It should say: However, I have no intention on having enmity with anyone in the blog; for we are all brothers, the meterological elite of internet weather. "I have not intention on having enmity with anyone in the blog is an independent clause. "For we are all brothers, the meteorological elite of internet weather has an independent clause and a subordinate clause.
I've been reading this board for quite a few seasons now.... and this "JFV" drama never ceases to amaze me
hello everyone. it's been a while since i've stopped by. interesting results to the poll. there are more people who think like me than i previously thought.

are y'all calling drak a cyber bully? I'm not able to follow the current drama.
1525. Levi32
00z NAM is going against the trend its had for the last 2 days. It no longer forms a cut-off low as the TUTT pulls out. Instead it leaves behind a weak open trough and the main trough lobe exits to the NE.

Quoting Drakoen:


You sentence punctuation is messed up. It should say: However, I have no intention on having enmity with anyone in the blog; for we are all brothers, the meterological elite of internet weather. "I have not intention on having enmity with anyone in the blog is an independent clause. "For we are all brothers, the meteorological elite of internet weather has an independent clause and a subordinate clause.


lol

Draky, it takes practice, at least I am trying.
99 bottles of beer on the wall, 99 bottles of beer...

...oh wait, wrong blog. ;)

17 days till we move...anyone want to come help and pack?

Just glad nothing coming this way right now although our house is not sold yet. Wondering if the northern route or southern route is the more safe route still.
I think I've sighted MC Grammar.

1529. Drakoen
Yea, I noticed that too Levi.
1530. Drakoen
Quoting futuremet:


lol

Draky, it takes practice, at least I am trying.


There you go again. It is: "Draky, it takes practice; at least I am trying." "Draky, it takes practice" is an independent clause and so it "at least I am trying."
Quoting Drakoen:


There you go again. It is: "Draky, it takes practice; at least I am trying." "Draky, it takes practice is an independent clause and so it "at least I am trying."


Thanks Drak, correct me each time grammar is incorrect. This is quite beneficial.
1532. Drakoen
Quoting futuremet:


Thanks Drak, correct me each time grammar is incorrect. This is quite beneficial.


You didn't need a period after incorrect. You could have just used a semicolon since it's in direct relation to the previous independent clause.
Slowly into madness the blog descends.

Without anything tropical to talk about, the blog version of cabin fever sets in...
Just let it be noted...
it is not women of the blog who write this 'As The Wind Blows' soap opera script.

Amended: Or should I say, who provide the drama for 'As the Wind Blows'
1536. Drakoen
Quoting DestinJeff:
Drakoen, please provide feedback on this statement:

You sentence punctuation is messed up.


It's the Italian
Quoting Drakoen:


You didn't need a period after incorrect. You could have just used a semicolon since it's in direction relation to the previous independent clause.


So in other words, you can use a semicolon instead of a period when two independent clauses are placed side by side?
1538. Ossqss
Ask of yourself, why are we here? Why do we do what we do?

We are not here to parlay inaccuracy or distract that which is the intention of the interaction. We are here to share information. We don't need to share that which is wrong or distorted.

You make this what it is, never forget !
1539. Drakoen
Quoting futuremet:


So in other words, you can use a semicolon instead of a period when two independent clauses are placed side by side?


If they are related then yes; it creates parallelism between the two sentences.
1540. XL
I am a lurker and will revert to being such as soon as I have made this comment:
As far as I am aware we are here to either learn about the weather; be informed about the weather, or comment on the weather. I am stunned by the level of animosity to various individuals in the blog. It does not encourage newbies to voice their opinion. I appreciate there is history, and yes, not everyone has excellent spelling or grammar (myself included). However, what I have seen over the last couple of days is destructive. It demeans the blog and purpose of it.

That's it, shoot me down in flames and put me on ignore. I just needed to have my say.
Quoting SavannahStorm:
Slowly into madness the blog descends.

Without anything tropical to talk about, the blog version of cabin fever sets in...


Indeed....
Or should I say "Very Much So"
1543. Drakoen
Quoting Ossqss:
Ask of yourself, why are we here? Why do we do what we do?

We are not here to parlay inaccuracy or distract that which is the intention of the interaction. We are here to share information. We don't need to share that which is wrong or distorted.

You make this what it is, never forget !


Nice use of anaphora.
Instead of a semicolon, you make a whole new sentence beginning with a prepositional phrase. period.
Like this:
Draky, it takes practice. At least, I'm trying.
1545. XL
Furthermore I want to say that I appreciate the constructive comments made on this blog. They not only help me learn, but keep me informed. Thanks to all those who regularly contribute.
1546. Drakoen
Quoting DestinJeff:


...and if there is one thing we all know about semicolon usage, "it's" to be used when subsequent statements are in "direction relation" to the previous independent clause.


This isn't spelling error; it is grammatical error. I'm doing more than one thing at a time.
LOOK- THE WEATHER

1548. Drakoen
Quoting truecajun:
Instead of a semicolon, you make a whole new sentence beginning with a prepositional phrase. period.
Like this:
Draky, it takes practice. At least, I'm trying.


The period isn't as appealing as the semicolon.
1550. Ossqss
Quoting Drakoen:


Nice use of anaphora.


Am I wrong?
Uh oh SAvannah - that - whatever it is, looks likes it's coming our way. Or someone's way.

Forgive me for using inappropriate punctuation and grammer. Did that for a living forever, now following Kurt Vonnegut rules.

:)
Quoting DestinJeff:
why don't we call "pre-invests" what they really are: clouds?


Because "Blob" and "poof" are so much more appealing.
no, i suppose it isn't.
Someone wake me when all the school children go to bed!
1556. Drakoen
Lets try beginning our sentences with a capital letter LOL!
Quoting melwerle:
uh oh SAvannah - that - whatever it is, looks likes it's coming our way. Or someone's way.

forgive me for using inappropriate punctuation and grammer. Did that for a living forever, now following Kurt Vonnegut rules.

:)
Sirens of Titan, was my favorite.
Vonnegut on semicolons -

Here is a lesson in creative writing. First rule: Do not use semicolons. They are transvestite hermaphrodites representing absolutely nothing. All they do is show you've been to college.
Kurt Vonnegut, A Man without a Country
1559. Drakoen
Quoting KEHCharleston:
Sirens of Titan, was my favorite.


That comma is so disgusting.
Drak - Mensa?
Quoting Drakoen:
Lets try beginning our sentences with capital letters LOL!


Drak, you must've hated ee Cummings when you were in school:

i thank You God for most this amazing
day:for the leaping greenly spirits of trees
and a blue true dream of sky; and for everything
which is natural which is infinite which is yes
XL, don't get upset. we usually don't care about grammar. we are just bored and picking at each other. we are like children that are cooped up inside because it's too hot to play outside. such a situation always involves hair pulling.
99 bottles of beer on the wall, 99 bottles of beer...

...oh wait, wrong blog. ;)

17 days till we move...anyone want to come help and pack?

Just glad nothing coming this way right now although our house is not sold yet. Wondering if the northern route or southern route is the more safe route still.
Action: Quote | Ignore User

where are you going
1564. Drakoen
Quoting truecajun:
XL, don't get upset. we usually don't care about grammar. we are just bored and picking at each other. we are like children that are cooped up inside because it's too hot to play outside. such a situation always involves hair pulling.


LOL!
Not to take away from grammar time, but...

Bastardi: "The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols."

Dang. Might have to re-think that entire AGW thing. If Bastardi thinks the hypothesis is a farce, then it is likely accu-rate.
1566. Drakoen
It's been fun all; have a good night.
I hated English class please stop. Bad memories!
1569. Drakoen
Quoting SavannahStorm:


Drak, you must've hated ee Cummings when you were in school:

i thank You God for most this amazing
day:for the leaping greenly spirits of trees
and a blue true dream of sky; and for everything
which is natural which is infinite which is yes


At least he capitalized God; that would have been blasphemous if not.
This is way too funny tonight. I cringe alot of time of punctuation during the blog comments, the run-ons etc...never think to tell anyone they're wrong because I figure it's blog where folks have fun, relax and talk about weather - not the english language. Perhaps I should see if a friend could copyedit before people post. I certainly understand Keepers and Draks and everyone else's posts - I wouldn't dream of asking them to edit. It would take away from what makes them "them."

Hey - I'll POOF myself on the rant.

:)
1571. Ossqss
Folks, this is a blog for you. Use it accordingly ! L8R
when will the south central US get some rain????
Quoting atmoaggie:
Not to take away from grammar time, but...

Bastardi: "The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols."

Dang. Might have to re-think that entire AGW thing. If Bastardi thinks the hypothesis is a farce, then it is likely accu-rate.


XD wow.
Quoting atmoaggie:
Not to take away from grammar time, but...

Bastardi: "The current unseasonable cold across northwest Europe is not the only place where the arctic hound is calling as yet another blast of reality gets lobbed into the base camp of agenda driven warmingistas, who of course refuse to see anything that could possibly challenge their false idols."

Dang. Might have to re-think that entire AGW thing. If Bastardi thinks the hypothesis is a farce, then it is likely accu-rate.


"and by the way, for the 5th consecutive year in a row, I predict the Northeast will be hit by a major hurricane."
Evening blogosphere

Hows everyone doin tonite?
Quoting DeerfieldBeachGuy:
Evening blogosphere

Hows everyone doin tonite?


You might want to clean up your blogging a bit...

Seems you forgot an apostrophe...
Quoting Drakoen:
It's been fun all; have a good night.
yep been balls of fun
Quoting melwerle:


You might want to clean up your blogging a bit...

Seems you forgot an apostrophe...


By Jove, that's the spirit!
Quoting melwerle:
You might want to clean up your blogging a bit... Seems you forgot an apostrophe...


How is everyone doing tonight?
Quoting Drakoen:


At least he capitalized God; that would have been blasphemous if not.


God is a great title, but not his personal name.
You guys see the latest lightning one day before increasing hurricane intensity research?

"Here we analyse the evolution of maximum winds and total lightning frequency every 6 h during the entire lifetime of 56 hurricanes around the globe. We find that in all of these hurricanes, lightning frequency and maximum sustained winds are significantly correlated (mean correlation coefficient of 0.82), where the maximum sustained winds and minimum pressures in hurricanes are preceded by increases in lightning activity approximately one day before the peak winds."

Published in Nature Geoscience, but I have a link from Watts' site to the pdf here.
Quoting futuremet:


God is a great title, but not his personal name.


Which god are we talking about? :P
when will we get some rain in Louisiana? anyone know? future mets?? what say you?
Quoting atmoaggie:
You guys see the latest lightning one day before increasing hurricane intensity research?

"Here we analyse the evolution of maximum winds and total lightning frequency every 6 h during the entire lifetime of 56 hurricanes around the globe. We find that in all of these hurricanes, lightning frequency and maximum sustained winds are significantly correlated (mean correlation coefficient of 0.82), where the maximum sustained winds and minimum pressures in hurricanes are preceded by increases in lightning activity approximately one day before the peak winds."

Published in Nature Geoscience, but I have a link from Watts' site to the pdf here.


Huh, I actually hadn't saw that prior to your mention of it.

Very interesting, and I think I'll also give the pdf a shot.

Thanks!
Quoting Drakoen:


Nice use of anaphora.


Winston Churchill did it better ;)
1582. atmoaggie
Still picturing Bastardi jumping off the train. Thanks for the blog save, atmo.
night to all and to all a good night!
Quoting atmoaggie:
You guys see the latest lightning one day before increasing hurricane intensity research?

"Here we analyse the evolution of maximum winds and total lightning frequency every 6 h during the entire lifetime of 56 hurricanes around the globe. We find that in all of these hurricanes, lightning frequency and maximum sustained winds are significantly correlated (mean correlation coefficient of 0.82), where the maximum sustained winds and minimum pressures in hurricanes are preceded by increases in lightning activity approximately one day before the peak winds."

Published in Nature Geoscience, but I have a link from Watts' site to the pdf here.


Wow, that is very interesting. I was always under the impression that lightning activity decreased as a tropical system became more organized.

I would imagine that the correlation between the lightning and intensification has to do with elevated cloudtops and ice-crystal friction, similar to the way that hail-bearing thunderstorms have increased lightning activity.
1590. Levi32
Quoting truecajun:
when will we get some rain in Louisiana? anyone know? future mets?? what say you?


Depends on what part of Louisiana. The north gulf coast is going to be pretty dry for a while. Northern Louisiana may get a portion of the wet pattern over the southern US, but that remains to be seen.
Quoting truecajun:
when will we get some rain in Louisiana? anyone know? future mets?? what say you?


Last I heard from the NWS in NOLA, this hot and dry pattern is probably going to remain in place for at least a few more days. Last I heard, a weak front tried to work its way down here in about a week's time, but even that was uncertain, and any front we get may be a dry one, affecting only our humidity.
i'm south of baton rouge. the local weather only goes as far as tuesday. there is no chance. do you think we'll get any by late next week?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Which god are we talking about? :P
lets not go there religion or poltics start wars
What happened to the flaming Miami Heat basketball? The Ghost Storm? WTH?

You mean in just 3 hours, it's gone again?

Jeez...I was waitin' to see some shaqegensis!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
lets not go there religion or poltics start wars


Haha, I hadn't planned on it. I just love to nitpick when it comes to theology. It's one of my favorite subjects. :P
will my centipede grass really die if i only water it once a week? i hate fooling with the sprinklers. it's such a pain moving them all over the place. my yards are big.
Quoting CycloneOz:
What happened to the flaming Miami Heat basketball? The Ghost Storm? WTH?

You mean in just 3 hours, it's gone again?

Jeez...I was waitin' to see some shaqegensis!


Shaqgenesis is such an elegant term. I'm glad that it's the newest term being coined around here. :D
Quoting melwerle:


You might want to clean up your blogging a bit...

Seems you forgot an apostrophe...


LoL sorry i have to shake off the rust--im usually only lurking.

I figure i read this blog everyday--i might as well show my face now and again.

So if I've read correctly, the caribbean disturbance has some a small window to be our "A" storm next week.
Quoting truecajun:
i'm south of baton rouge. the local weather only goes as far as tuesday. there is no chance. do you think we'll get any by late next week?


You folks down there "just south of Baton Rouge" sure know how to do a crawfish boil.

Best one ever: Bayou Pigeon, 1987 - featuring metal tables with holes drilled in them & Falstaff beer by the keg.

OMG!!!
Quoting truecajun:
when will we get some rain in Louisiana? anyone know? future mets?? what say you?


Not in the forseeable, nor reliably modeled future.

At least 8 days or so...I hear the screams from your grass, too.

I am in Covington..starting to get crunchy. Needs to change soon or we will have burn bans for 4th of July.
Quoting CycloneOz:
What happened to the flaming Miami Heat basketball? The Ghost Storm? WTH?

You mean in just 3 hours, it's gone again?

Jeez...I was waitin' to see some shaqegensis!

no check this out he's back!!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg
1602. Levi32
Quoting truecajun:
i'm south of baton rouge. the local weather only goes as far as tuesday. there is no chance. do you think we'll get any by late next week?


I doubt it. Deep-layer high pressure is going to be dominating the northern gulf of Mexico for the next 2 weeks. It's going to be raining a whole lot in the states north of you though.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
1582. atmoaggie
Still picturing Bastardi jumping off the train. Thanks for the blog save, atmo.


Just sharing tidbits I thought you guys would enjoy from Watts' site at the moment.
oh well. thanks Levi and the other two people who responded to my question. i guess I have no choice but to sprinkle the grass.

off to bed.
For those who are not in the know about such things..."the Pigeon" ;;;[pronounced tha Peeshawn] is a bonafide "end of the world."

Those that have been there will verify my claim;;;
From the NWS discussion for the NO/BR area:

"IN A NUTSHELL...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND VERY LITTLE CONVECTION EXPECTED.

OUT OF THE NUTSHELL...VERY STUBBORN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN PARKED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD."

Nutty.
Quoting CycloneOz:
For those who are not in the know about such things..."the Pigeon" ;;;[pronounced tha Peeshawn] is a bonafide "end of the world."

Those that have been there will verify my claim;;;

i was going to make a bushcane but it would be to dumb to hit land it would destroy it self lol
After doing a much deeper satellite analysis for our Western Caribbean disturbance using the TropicalRAMSDIS Daytime Visible/Nighttime IR Satellite Loop, it seems that the convective action in association with the disturbance did play tricks with my vision. Earlier it appeared that there may have been a mid-level circulation. Well, now with the convection waning, things have become much clearer. All that I had been seeing was the fast upper-level winds going opposite the fast lower-level flow, giving the appearance that there may have been some circulation. Seems that I'm starting to get into a funk with making observations and forecasting. Thats been two days straight where I've been incorrect with my observations.
Quoting CycloneOz:
For those who are not in the know about such things..."the Pigeon" ;;;[pronounced tha Peeshawn] is a bonafide "end of the world."

Those that have been there will verify my claim;;;


More than one road from there has a sign that says "Pavement Ends 1500 Feet"

And the ones that actually have a sign are the state highways.

Addendum: G'Nite, all.
Latest from NWS Charleston:

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE WRN GOMEX AND THE LWR MISS RIVER
VALLEY WILL EXTEND NE INTO THE SE STATES...SETTLING IN ON TOP OF
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE INLAND CAROLINAS. INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES WILL FORCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING THE MID-90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FEW LOCATIONS IN
INLAND SE GA MAY EVEN REACH THE UPPER 90S.
THE EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEABREEZE SHOULD HOLD BACK TEMPS CLOSER TO 90
DEGREES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE MID-80S ALONG THE SHORES. WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-UPR 60S INLAND AND REMAIN IN
THE LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST...MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE
101-103 DEGREE RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THOUGH THIS IS BELOW HEAT
ADVY CRITERIA...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR THAT THIS
LEVEL OF HEAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED AND NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
GUARDING AGAINST HEAT-RELATED PROBLEMS SHOULD BE TAKEN.



Ugh, summer has arrived in South Georgia...
Quoting SavannahStorm:
Latest from NWS Charleston:

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE WRN GOMEX AND THE LWR MISS RIVER
VALLEY WILL EXTEND NE INTO THE SE STATES...SETTLING IN ON TOP OF
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE INLAND CAROLINAS. INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES WILL FORCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING THE MID-90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FEW LOCATIONS IN
INLAND SE GA MAY EVEN REACH THE UPPER 90S.
THE EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEABREEZE SHOULD HOLD BACK TEMPS CLOSER TO 90
DEGREES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE MID-80S ALONG THE SHORES. WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-UPR 60S INLAND AND REMAIN IN
THE LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST...MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE
101-103 DEGREE RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THOUGH THIS IS BELOW HEAT
ADVY CRITERIA...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR THAT THIS
LEVEL OF HEAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED AND NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
GUARDING AGAINST HEAT-RELATED PROBLEMS SHOULD BE TAKEN.



Ugh, summer has arrived in South Georgia...

sounds Shaqtastic
Quoting Acemmett90:

sounds Shaqtastic

oh just realized why everyone likes the avitar its the creepest picture ever of shaq
Quoting Acemmett90:

oh just realized why everyone likes the avitar its the creepest picture ever oh shaq


Nope, this is the creepiest ever.

Quoting SavannahStorm:


Nope, this is the creepiest ever.


oh yah it is
On that note, it's time for bed.

Night, all!
Quoting SavannahStorm:


Nope, this is the creepiest ever.


he should just go croaching tiger hidden dragon on his opponants lol
Quoting SavannahStorm:
Latest from NWS Charleston:

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING OVER THE WRN GOMEX AND THE LWR MISS RIVER
VALLEY WILL EXTEND NE INTO THE SE STATES...SETTLING IN ON TOP OF
THE LEE SIDE TROUGH OVER THE INLAND CAROLINAS. INCREASING HEIGHTS
AND THICKNESSES WILL FORCE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS TO CONTINUE WITH MAX
TEMPS REACHING THE MID-90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. A FEW LOCATIONS IN
INLAND SE GA MAY EVEN REACH THE UPPER 90S.
THE EXPECTED
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEABREEZE SHOULD HOLD BACK TEMPS CLOSER TO 90
DEGREES CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE MID-80S ALONG THE SHORES. WITH
DEWPOINTS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID-UPR 60S INLAND AND REMAIN IN
THE LOW 70S NEAR THE COAST...MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE
101-103 DEGREE RANGE FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THOUGH THIS IS BELOW HEAT
ADVY CRITERIA...THIS WILL BE THE FIRST TIME THIS YEAR THAT THIS
LEVEL OF HEAT WILL BE EXPERIENCED AND NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
GUARDING AGAINST HEAT-RELATED PROBLEMS SHOULD BE TAKEN.



Ugh, summer has arrived in South Georgia...


No kidding - it's SO humid and terribly hot here and Chris Poseman the, well never mind what I call her, says it just going to get worse.

17 days kids...San Diego in 17 days.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
After doing a much deeper satellite analysis for our Western Caribbean disturbance using the TropicalRAMSDIS Daytime Visible/Nighttime IR Satellite Loop, it seems that the convective action in association with the disturbance did play tricks with my vision. Earlier it appeared that there may have been a mid-level circulation. Well, now with the convection waning, things have become much clearer. All that I had been seeing was the fast upper-level winds going opposite the fast lower-level flow, giving the appearance that there may have been some circulation. Seems that I'm starting to get into a funk with making observations and forecasting. Thats been two days straight where I've been incorrect with my observations.


Its alright dude.. you just get alittle too excited and post before you really analyis everything.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
After doing a much deeper satellite analysis for our Western Caribbean disturbance using the TropicalRAMSDIS Daytime Visible/Nighttime IR Satellite Loop, it seems that the convective action in association with the disturbance did play tricks with my vision. Earlier it appeared that there may have been a mid-level circulation. Well, now with the convection waning, things have become much clearer. All that I had been seeing was the fast upper-level winds going opposite the fast lower-level flow, giving the appearance that there may have been some circulation. Seems that I'm starting to get into a funk with making observations and forecasting. Thats been two days straight where I've been incorrect with my observations.
you must wait for persisence a minimum of 24 hrs cchs then you will be able to make the call always remember give yourself 24 hrs with any system only other rule i follow if rapid firing t cells are present in group of four or more in a compact zone of continues convective cycles and expanding and venting then rapid dev is very likly but organization is the key possible call in 12 hrs
HELP WHAT CAN I ADD TO THIS
~A Shaqcane IS a Horrific Storm that instead of Rain it Release Emense amounts of Sweat, It is also the most powerful storm on earth and It's Chuck Norris's Only weakness. Its Only weakness is the Foul line. the Shaqness Is devistating winds that are the fastest in the world. There is only one Catagory for a Shaq Cane and the is a Shaqfive. the Shaq five can form anywhere even in the artic. whe people hear a ShaqCane is comming they evacuate LA because once you piss off Shaq You Gotta Watch youR BACK.
Quoting scottsvb:


Its alright dude.. you just get alittle too excited and post before you really analyis everything.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
you must wait for persisence a minimum of 24 hrs cchs then you will be able to make the call always remember give yourself 24 hrs with any system only other rule i follow if rapid firing t cells are present in group of four or more in a compact zone of continues convective cycles and expanding and venting then rapid dev is very likly but organization is the key possible call in 12 hrs


Thanks for the advice. I had been practicing that all year long as I hope you all had noticed, but the past couple days, been pretty fiery with certain things going on around so its been affecting my judgment when it comes to my analysis. Just gotta learn to keep calm and be more objective and patient and to not let things outside weather affect my forecasting skills and analysis.
Quoting Acemmett90:
HELP WHAT CAN I ADD TO THIS
~A Shaqcane IS a Horrific Storm that instead of Rain it Release Emense amounts of Sweat, It is also the most powerful storm on earth and It's Chuck Norris's Only weakness. Its Only weakness is the Foul line. the Shaqness Is devistating winds that are the fastest in the world. There is only one Catagory for a Shaq Cane and the is a Shaqfive. the Shaq five can form anywhere even in the artic. whe people hear a ShaqCane is comming they evacuate LA because once you piss off Shaq You Gotta Watch youR BACK.


another kid on ignore!
1623. Makoto1
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Thanks for the advice. I had been practicing that all year long as I hope you all had noticed, but the past couple days, been pretty fiery with certain things going on around so its been affecting my judgment when it comes to my analysis. Just gotta learn to keep calm and be more objective and patient and to not let things outside weather affect my forecasting skills and analysis.


Hey, we're here to learn, right? As long as you learn from mistakes you're fine, I've done the same kind of thing too.
Quoting scottsvb:


another kid on ignore!

hey its an inside joke from earlier
cchs....remember...

"That which does not kill me makes me stronger."
Quoting scottsvb:


another kid on ignore!



Good evening, Scott!


Have you're futuristic perspectives changed any in reference to the possibility of TC formation in the SW Carib later on this week into next weekend?
Quoting presslord:
cchs....remember...

"That which does not kill me makes me stronger."

exatly we should all learn from our mistakes
to err is human nothing wrong with being human no one is perfect if it was perfect it would be boring
good morning press
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
to err is human nothing wrong with being human no one is perfect if it was perfect it would be boring

it would also be like that movie the island that would be also kinda creepy
futuristic perspectives?!?!

Did I accidently stumble into the Science Fiction blog?
mornin' KOG!
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Thanks for the advice. I had been practicing that all year long as I hope you all had noticed, but the past couple days, been pretty fiery with certain things going on around so its been affecting my judgment when it comes to my analysis. Just gotta learn to keep calm and be more objective and patient and to not let things outside weather affect my forecasting skills and analysis.



Do not be so hard on yourself unecessarily, my friend. Afterall, easily, to say the very least here, half of all of us on here wish we had at least 1/2 of the highly intellectual intellegence which you clearly have when it comes to tropical meteorology. :)
Quoting presslord:
futuristic perspectives?!?!

Did I accidently stumble into the Science Fiction blog?

yah it went from storms-Shaq-JFV-Sceince fiction
whoa thast wierd
G'morning Press!
Quoting WeatherStudent:



Good evening, Scott!


Have you're futuristic perspectives changed any in reference to the possibility of TC formation in the SW Carib later on this week into next weekend?


Nope not yet...I want to see formation 1st..then how the models pick up on it "After it forms.. or IF" Patience is the key until anything forms...then you look into the short term of which models have the best handle on it.
Quoting Acemmett90:

yah it went from storms-Shaq-JFV-Sceince fiction
whoa thast wierd

Night to All
were a good mix of nuts
Quoting scottsvb:


Nope not yet...I want to see formation 1st..then how the models pick up on it "After it forms.. or IF" Patience is the key until anything forms...then you look into the short term of which models have the best handle on it.


Good call, we'll see by Friday I guess. :)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
were a good mix of nuts

imagine this blog with out a sense of humer how boring would it be
some nutty than others
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
some nutty than others

Nuttier then others you mean
We will have a decent idea by Thurs evening...then if it does want to develop..Friday afternoon is when they would fly a plane down there.. but this is just a guess!
o ya i got to change the y to i and add er
Quoting Acemmett90:

Nuttier then others you mean

Shaq Out night
I can't fall asleep...somebody tell me a bedtime story...
Quoting scottsvb:
We will have a decent idea by Thurs evening...then if it does want to develop..Friday afternoon is when they would fly a plane down there.. but this is just a guess!


Absolutely, hey, any new post updates from your other website?
Presslord~ Here you go..

Positive Feedback Hint Between Tropical Cyclones And Global Warming
ScienceDaily (June 1, 2009) — Tropical cyclones could be a significant source of the deep convection that carries moist air upward to the stratosphere, where it can influence climate, according to Harvard University researchers David M. Romps and Zhiming Kuang.


Using 23 years of infrared satellite imagery, global tropical cyclone best-track data, and reanalysis of tropopause temperature, the authors found that tropical cyclones contribute a disproportionate amount of the tropical deep convection that overshoots the troposphere and reaches the stratosphere.

Their findings appear in a recent issue of Geophysical Research Letters.

Tropical cyclones account for only 7 percent of the deep convection in the tropics, but 15 percent of the convection that reaches the stratosphere, the researchers found. They conclude that tropical cyclones could play a key role in adding water vapor to the stratosphere, which has been shown to increase surface temperatures.

Because global warming is expected to lead to changes in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones, the authors believe their results suggest the possibility of a feedback mechanism between tropical cyclones and global climate.

I usually dont post on fl site till there really is something to post.. there are many good posters and some Mets that post on there.
...ZZZZZZZZZZzzzzzzzzzz...
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2

Quoting scottsvb:
I usually dont post on fl site till there really is something to post.. there are many good posters and some Mets that post on there.


I know, some extraordinarily tropical meteorologists post remarks, explinations, comments, ext, on the forums over there, it's an extremely reliable website, without the hype.
Here's another article about the same Harvard research. Goes into some different details.


Romps and co-author Zhiming Kuang, assistant professor of climate science in Harvard's Faculty of Arts and Sciences, were intrigued by earlier data suggesting that the amount of water vapor in the stratosphere has grown by roughly 50 percent over the past 50 years. Scientists are currently unsure why this increase has occurred; the Harvard researchers sought to examine the possibility that tropical cyclones might have contributed by sending a large fraction of their clouds into the stratosphere

But if very deep clouds, such as those in a tropical cyclone that can rise through the atmosphere at speeds of up to 40 miles per hour, can punch through the tropopause too quickly for this to happen, they can deposit their ice in the warmer overlying stratosphere, where it then evaporates.

"This suggests that tropical cyclones could play an important role in setting the humidity of the stratosphere," Romps and Kuang write.



That whole punch the tropopause seems to be on the increase lately in thunderstorms in general.. all these gravity waves we've been seeing lately.


Deep-Layer Wind Shear - North Atlantic - Latest Available - Large Scale
Quoting WeatherStudent:


I know, some extraordinarily tropical meteorologists post remarks, explinations, comments, ext, on the forums over there, it's an extremely reliable website, without the hype.


Well when something forms.. I post.. but when there is nothing going on...I dont post unless someone has a question that I can answer for them if someone else hasnt already!


24hr Shear Tendency - North Atlantic - Latest Available - Large Scale


That little blob off the eastern Florida coast is in a weakening area of shear.. maybe that might give people something to talk about?
Quoting scottsvb:


Well when something forms.. I post.. but when there is nothing going on...I dont post unless someone has a question that I can answer for them if someone hasnt already!


Yup.


SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic
Quoting presslord:
I can't fall asleep...somebody tell me a bedtime story...
once upon a time in the caroliners there was a great dresslord roaming the land
how about some empty space
poof your a blank
later all off to la la land


Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
poof your a blank


2-0
1665. boyzNme
Quoting melwerle:
99 bottles of beer on the wall, 99 bottles of beer...

...oh wait, wrong blog. ;)

17 days till we move...anyone want to come help and pack?

Just glad nothing coming this way right now although our house is not sold yet. Wondering if the northern route or southern route is the more safe route still.


good luck on the move! I still say the southern route!! i40 is the way to go.
1666. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:


SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic


That next wave in the central Atlantic will bring another moisture surge into the southern Caribbean in 6-10 days.
Another kid on ignore!
Dang, who put presslord to sleep? Vote 1}the Blog 2)The Tropics
Tomorrows another day.
I must say that those TDWRs give amazing detail. The only thing wrong with them is that there isn't enough of them up and running yet.
MNT, I guess you only get a TDWR if you are near a terminal. They don't need them in the middle of BFE. Maybe somebody will come out with an add-on for personal weather stations.
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
MNT, ... an add-on for personal weather stations.



Hahaha...nice one. Love to see that price+shipping!
honey badger is a small african animal. meanest animal on the planet. fearless even known to attack lions. oh sorry wrong blog. happy weather
Good Morning;

Tropical Update
1675. IKE
Shear is just too high for anything to form in the GOM or the Caribbean...

As a matter of fact it's just about too high throughout the Atlantic basin.

morning
the first two weeks of june has not seen favourable conditions for cyclogenesis in the western caribbean and the g/mex.the climatological favourable aress.high wind shear has been the dterminant factor in any tropical seedlings getting organised. the recent disturbance in the western caribbean which most of the global models were hinting of organisation never got going because of the wind shear. now they are forecasting a cut off low to form in the next two days and hopefully the shear will drop to allow some form of tropical development. i cannot see the shear relaxing until the subtropical ridge makes a that migration to the north at a quicker pace.
looking ovr the african continent it now apparent that the tropical waves have began to line up and then to start exiting the coast
Quoting stoormfury:
morning
the first two weeks of june has not seen favourable conditions for cyclogenesis in the western caribbean and the g/mex.the climatological favourable aress.high wind shear has been the dterminant factor in any tropical seedlings getting organised. the recent disturbance in the western caribbean which most of the global models were hinting of organisation never got going because of the wind shear. now they are forecasting a cut off low to form in the next two days and hopefully the shear will drop to allow some form of tropical development. i cannot see the shear relaxing until the subtropical ridge makes a that migration to the north at a quicker pace.
looking ovr the african continent it now apparent that the tropical waves have began to line up and then to start exiting the coast

It's not really the right time for the cape Verde season, but only time will tell.
tropical waves lined up over the african continent

Link
weatherwatcher12

i am quite aware that it is not the cape verde season. it was only an observation over the african continent
Quoting stoormfury:
weatherwatcher12

i am quite aware that it is not the cape verde season. it was only an observation over the african continent

oh sorry. Didn't know :)
1681. IKE
From Mobile,AL. long-term discussion...

TO THE SOUTH...A WEAK SHEAR AXIS REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE
10.00 GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODELS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A CLOSED
LOW IN A FEW DAYS OVER THIS AREA. MEANWHILE...THE CANADIAN RUN
SUGGESTS A MID LEVEL LOW WITH LITTLE SURFACE DEVELOPMENT. THE GFS IS
FASTER AND MORE NORTH TAKING LOW NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF
THEN CURVING IT LEFT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT INTERACTS WITH A STRONG
MID LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPING EASTWARD OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THE ECMWF
TAKES ITS SLOWER MOVING LOW NORTHWEST INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS WE WILL HAVE ENOUGH RIDGING ALOFT TO
ACT AS A SHIELD...PREVENTING ANYTHING DOWN THERE FROM GAINING MUCH
LATITUDE.
seems as if the canadian has had a handle on the situation over the past wk. the model is on a roll so expect no development
Well, there is our surface trough but, shear is still rockin' in the Caribb.

In the discussion posted by IKE it looks like anything that develops will head NW to W. This is the other preferred track of June cyclones with a strong ridge present. "Hoist the shields"
1684. DDR
Quoting Levi32:


That next wave in the central Atlantic will bring another moisture surge into the southern Caribbean in 6-10 days.

Its more like 3 days,latest gfs
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 8N42W 6N45W 2N46W AT
10/0600 UTC...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. THE POSITION OF THIS
WAVE WAS JUMPED FORWARD TO THE WEST IN ORDER FOR IT TO AGREE
WITH CURRENT SATELLITE INFORMATION...WITH FORECAST MODEL
INFORMATION...AND WITH CIMSS MIMIC-TPW DATA. THE METEOSAT-9
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM AS LATE AS 09/1700 UTC DID NOT
SHOW STRONG EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND 35W...WHERE THE
WAVE HAD BEEN ANALYZED TO BE AT 09/1800 UTC. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN ONE BIG
MASS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 7N BETWEEN 37W AND 46W AT 09/1700 UTC.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 2N BETWEEN 40W AND 43W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
40W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO
IS OCCURRING FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W...JUST TO THE WEST
OF JAMAICA...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N AT 10/0000 UTC...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KT. NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THIS TIME.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM AFRICA NEAR 11N14W TO 7N20W 5N30W 5N38W 4N48W...INTO
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS ARE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN
16W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N
TO 6N BETWEEN 26W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 70W...
A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N76W...ACROSS THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE WEST OF 76W...TO
WESTERN CUBA...INTO WEST-CENTRAL HONDURAS. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
HONDURAS TO 17N79W TO 19N75W. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS ARE IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 10/0000 UTC IS 1.65 INCHES AND THE TOTAL FOR BERMUDA
DURING THE SAME TIME PERIOD IS 1.15 INCHES IN BERMUDA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EVENTUALLY
THE COASTAL WATERS/COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA ALONG THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SIDE NEAR 3N80W ARE IN AN AREA OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
THAT IS ON TOP OF BROAD LOW LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ALONG 68W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE PRECIPITATION IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO
THE WEST OF 64W IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 32N76W-TO-WEST CENTRAL
HONDURAS MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 31N40W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
23N44W TO 16N50W TO 9N51W. THE SOUTHERN END OF A STATIONARY
FRONT/TROUGH 32N48W TO 30N54W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
FROM 29N TO 32N BETWEEN 47W AND 62W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
ALONG 27N18W TO 21N20W TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CANARY
ISLANDS.

$$
MT
Sorry i put the whole Discussion.
1687. RTLSNK
69*F in Macon, Georgia this morning headed up to 92*F, 94% humidity, wind is calm, sky is clear, coffee is French Roast. :)
Quoting RTLSNK:
69*F in Macon, Georgia this morning headed up to 92*F, 94% humidity, wind is calm, sky is clear, coffee is French Roast. :)


When both numbers are in the 90's, that can't be to comfortable?
And who drinks flavoured coffee first thing in the morning?
Good Morning....Shear rules in the Tropics and high pressure over North Florida which will result in highs around 95 for the next few days...Maybe a nice time to head down to the Tropics for a vacation where the water is warm and the drinks are cool.......
Through the night came the rains, soaking all things to be seen in the dim morning light.

Life in the mountains, revitalized.

One stares and wonders at nature's magnificence!

1692. RTLSNK
Quoting Orcasystems:


When both numbers are in the 90's, that can't be to comfortable?
And who drinks flavoured coffee first thing in the morning?


Morning Big Fish, not a problem, have 36 sprinkler heads and a little princess granddaughter, have you forgotten how much fun running through the sprinklers can be? Sugar Bear likes flavoured coffee in the morning, when she is happy, grandpa is happy. :)
Quoting RTLSNK:


Morning Big Fish, not a problem, have 36 sprinkler heads and a little princess granddaughter, have you forgotten how much fun running through the sprinklers can be? Sugar Bear likes flavoured coffee in the morning, when she is happy, grandpa is happy. :)


Both valid points... I never thought of it that way :)
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2



It was not easy trying to find two AOI's this morning :(
1695. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which now also includes Weather456, daily updates


AOI #1

AOI #2



It was not easy trying to find two AOI's this morning :(


I see one between eastern Cuba, SW, to SW of Jamaica....
has any one noteded that the W Pac and E pac been slow starters this year



starting to look more like 1965!
The NHC thinks it will find a weakness.

Quoting IKE:


I see one between eastern Cuba, SW, to SW of Jamaica....


Its in AOI#1 , but its pretty small isn't it?
1699. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


Its in AOI#1 , but its pretty small isn't it?


Good lord I'm going blind.
Quoting IKE:


Good lord I'm going blind.


You are 50+ remember.. its to be expected
1701. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


You are 50+ remember.. its to be expected


LOL!


:(
Bees are a buzz amongst the wildflowers that sing a new day with color. Rain moistened life, a steady pour has made green greener. The sounds of rejoicing fill the misty air.



Taz, yea, they are slow to start especially the WPAC
Quoting Weather456:
Taz, yea, they are slow to start especially the WPAC




I Know!!
Quoting IKE:


LOL!


:(


We are in desperate need of a new Blog :(
Its getting so slow.. he might even mention GW just to Heat things up a bit (pun intended).
Quoting Weather456:
Taz, yea, they are slow to start especially the WPAC


So, both the EPAC and the WPAC are below average were as the Atlantic is above?
1707. WxLogic
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
The NHC thinks it will find a weakness.



You know what they say... if there's a will there's a way.
1708. WxLogic
Morning...
Quoting Orcasystems:


When both numbers are in the 90's, that can't be to comfortable?
And who drinks flavoured coffee first thing in the morning?


Yep we've finally dried out and here comes the summer heat! No doubt this week will push the GOM water temperature up a bit. Hopefully shear continues to rule the day and keep anything from forming! Good morning everyone, nice and quiet tropics, just the way I like to see it!
Quoting Tazmanian:
has any one noteded that the W Pac and E pac been slow starters this year



starting to look more like 1965!


K-Man mentioned it yesterday.....With all of the pent up heat that will continue to build around the Gulf region with high pressure dominating right now and no relief in sight in the short term, something will probably "pop" once the sheer dies down.......I don't like "late" starts to the season because some of the initial storms can become pretty strong because of the heat buildup before upwelling becomes a factor after a few storms in the basin....But then again, it's only June.
Puddle skippers at play shoo away bright birds that drank deeply. The high desert air softens.

It rains without lightning, a sky-fed stream without thunder.

Mountain morning comfort and contentment.



1712. IKE
Quoting Orcasystems:


We are in desperate need of a new Blog :(
Its getting so slow.. he might even mention GW just to Heat things up a bit (pun intended).


OMG...please Dr. M, spare us the GW debate.

Quoting IKE:


OMG...please Dr. M, spare us the GW debate.


Hey! Some of us need entertainment to distract us from work!
Quoting WxLogic:


You know what they say... if there's a will there's a way.


I think this area has been willed to death, literally, lol.
.
1716. IKE
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:


I think this area has been willed to death, literally, lol.


I do too. Like an energizer bunny...just keeps going and going......
12Z Surface Analysis


Click on image to view original size in a new window



5 bucks says that at least 1 blogger will declare the Columbian low on nrtiwlnvragn's post as "proof" that the AOI in the western Caribbean is actually trying to develop.
Quoting jeffs713:
5 bucks says that at least 1 blogger will declare the Columbian low on nrtiwlnvragn's post as "proof" that the AOI in the western Caribbean is actually trying to develop.


Well Here comes out low off of Columbia... lol jk!!!!
Quoting jeffs713:
5 bucks says that at least 1 blogger will declare the Columbian low on nrtiwlnvragn's post as "proof" that the AOI in the western Caribbean is actually trying to develop.


5 bucks that 5 other bloogers will declare that blogger a wishcaster.
1721. gator23
Quoting jeffs713:
5 bucks says that at least 1 blogger will declare the Columbian low on nrtiwlnvragn's post as "proof" that the AOI in the western Caribbean is actually trying to develop.


The Low in Columbia is proof that the AOI is trying to develop. I Owe you 5 bucks.
1722. gator23
Quoting CybrTeddy:


5 bucks that 5 other bloogers will declare that blogger a wishcaster.


I am a wishcaster
Boring - maybe climate change would be better?

Naah.
Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
The NHC thinks it will find a weakness.



I think JFV just threw up his breakfast.
TampaSpins Tropical Update....stick my neck out

Named storm coming by June 19th! Link
WIPEOUT
Time to catch a wave

1728. gator23
Quoting TampaSpin:
TampaSpins Tropical Update....stick my neck out

Named storm coming by June 19th! Link


Tampa, I have never been to your blog until today. I was very impressed. Its a wealth of information. Please keep up the excellent work!
new blog
1730. 0741
why their low on map were their nothing in sw carribbean shear very high??
1731. IKE
NEW BLOG!
I sense a weakness in the Farce.

the ssts near the south american coast appears to br cooling somewhat while the MDR in the atlantic is showing signs of warming. is this the reason why the epac and wpac are slow in kicking off? or is it that were are reversing to a neutral/ weak el nino episode?
New Blog...and that saying about careful what you wish for...


Click image for link
Quoting TampaSpin:
TampaSpins Tropical Update....stick my neck out

Named storm coming by June 19th! Link


That dry air mass is like a wall at Indy in the 1960's.

It's clobberin' time!
what's the forecast for Kingston, Jamaica?
Is this rain going to hang around until the weekend?